Poliy, Reewuoh, and Extemal Affalrs WORK4NG PAPERS Population, Health, and Nutrition Population and Human Resources Department The World Bank February 1991 WPS 599 Asia Region Population Projections 1990-91 Edition Eduard Bos Patience W. Stephens My;T. Vu and Rodolfo A. Bulatao New estimates of trends in demographic indicators from the 1970s and revised projections for all countries and economies in the region. ThePolicy,Remearch. and Extemal Affaicr Complex dsstnbuts PRE Working Papers todiassminate the findings of wock in progress and to encouage the exchange of ideas among Bank staff and aU othera interested in development issues. These paper cary the names of the authors, reflwet only their views, and should be used and cited accordingly. The findings. interpreutions, and conclusions are the authors' own. They should not be attributed to the World Bank, ts Bnand of Directors, its management, or any of its rnember counines. Polbvy, Re"veh, anid Extert Maim, WPS 599 This paper - a product of the Population, IJcalth, and Nutrition Division, Population and Human Resources Department- is part of a larger effort in PRE to update denaographic estimates on an annual basis. Copies are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433. Please contact Otilia Nadora, room S6-065, extension 31091 (202 pages with graphs and tables). Almost half the world's population lives in Asia. Fertility in these countries, mostly in Southeast This proportion is projected to decline to 40 Asia, has consequently declined rapidly. percent by the end of the next century, mainly because of slowing growth in China. Other Population growth rates started to drop in countries will continue to grow rapidly, and many countries in the region in the past decade, India, which adds more people every year than but the momentum built into the age structures of any other country, is projected to surpass China the populations wiU ensure continued population in total population. growth for many decades. Other countries in the region are lagging in fertility decline, and their Recent contraceptive prevalence surveys in populations will continue to grow at high rates. several countries in the region show increasing Infant and child mortality are lowest in countries proportions of couples using birth control. where fertility has declined to low levels. The PRE Working Paper Scries disseminates the findings of work under way in the Bank's Policy, Research, and Extcmal Affairs Complcx. An objective of the scrics is to get these findings out quickly, even if presentations are less than fully polished. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions in these papers do not necessarily represent official Bank policy. Produced by the PRE Dissemination Ccnter CONTENTS Prefce ............. v Detailed Population Projections .......... 1 Acknowidgments .vii World, Geographic Regions, and Icomme Groups 1 Introduction ....................... ix World. 2 Format of Tables .ix Less developed countries. 3 More developed countries. 4 Overview of Trends and Projecions .xiv World and Regi ns .xiv Geographic Regions Population Size and Growth .xiv Fetlity .. xix Africa...................... 5 Mortality .. xxvi East Africa. .East.Afric 6 Age Structurm .. xxvii West Africa. .West.Afric 7 Long-run Trends .. xxvii North Africa. .North.Afric 8 World Bank Regions and Income Groups . xxviii Some Country Results .. xxx America ... ........ 9 Conclusion .. xxxvi Latin America and the Caribbean .. 10 Northern America .. ......... 11 Appendix: Data and Methods .l. xvi Nature and Sources of Data .l. xvi Asia. ...................... 12 Population and Age-Sex Structure .. l xvi East and. Southeast Asiao .......... 13 Mortality Data .l. xvi South Asia ......South.As i a i4 Fertility Data .. lxvii Southwest Asia ............... 15 Migration Data .. lxvii OtherD ata .. lxvii Europe ...................... 16 Projection Methodology .. lxvii Projecting Mortality .. lxxxii Oceania . .................... 17 Future trends in life expectancy. .. lxxxii Future trends in infant mortality . lxxxiii Income Groups Selection of life tables .l. xxxiv Comparison with other projections . lxxxiv Low-income economies ..... ....... 18 Projecting Fertility ... lxxxiv Lower-middle-income economis .19 Projecting Migration .. . lxxxvi .' Upper-middle-income economis .20 Higb-income economies ... 21 References .. . lxxxviii Nonreporting nonmember economies .... 22 i Ads Regoa (and Oceaa) ........ 25 Kiribati .......... ..... 64 Kore, Dem. People's Rep. of 66 Asia and Oceania Region ....... 26 Korea, Rep. of .......... 68 Bomroves only ............. 27 Lao People's Dem. Rep ... . 70 Asia Department I ......... 28 Macao . ....... ...... 72 Asia Department .........29 Malaysia .74 Asia Depattment m ........ 30 Maldives ............. 76 Asia Department IV ........ 31 Mongolia ....... ...... 78 A Deptmnt V ........ 32 Myanmar ....... ...... 80 Nepl ............... 82 Countries, Economies, and Territories 35 New Caledonia........... 84 Austlia .............. 36 New Zealand. ....... 86 Balnladesh .. ... 38 Other MicronesiaO.... . 88 Bhutn .. 40 Other Polynesia ......... 90 buni .. 42 Papua New Guinea ....... 92 Chin (excluding Taiwan) .... 44 Philippines ............ 94 Federated States of Micronesia . 46 Singaore .. .. 96 Fiji ................. 48 Solomon IslandsS........ 98 French Polynesia ......... 50 Sri Lnka ...... .. 100 Guam .52.. ... Taiwan, China ........ 102 Hong Kong ............. 54 Thhailand. .104 India ..... ..... 6 Tonga ..... .... 106 Indonesia ......... . 58 Vanuatu ...... ... 108 Japan .......... 60 VietNam ......... 110 Kampuchea, Dem .......... 62 Western Samoa ......... 112 TABLES, FIGURES, AND BOXES Toblo 1 Popuation and Percentage Distribution by Geographic Region .xxxviii Tabe 2 Annual Population Increase and Growth Rate by Geographic Region .xxxviii TabLs 3 Fertility ad Mortality Rates by Geographic Region, 1985-90, 2000-05, and 2020-25 ....................x................XX.iuh 'Tabl 4 Population Age 0-14, 15-64, and 65 and Over for the World, LAs Developed and More Developed Countries, and Continents, 1985, 2000, and 2025 (millions) .xl Table 5 Long-run and Stationary Population, Momentum, Doubling Year, ad Year When Net Reproduction Rate Reaches 1 by Geogphic Region .xl Tabe 6 Population and Percentage Distribution by World Bank Region, Country Departmcnt, and Income Group, 1985-2100 .xli Table 7 Annual Population Increase and Growth Rate by World Bank Region, Country Department, r,d Income Group, 1985-2100 .xlii Table 8 Fordlity and Mortality Rates by World Bak Region, Country Department, and Income Group, 1985 '), 2000-05, and 2025-30 .xliii Table 9 Long-Run and Stationary Population, Doubling Year, and Year When Net Reproduction Rate Reaches I by World Bank Region, Country Department, and Icome Group xv.v Table 10 Population Projections for All Countries and Economies, 1985-2025 .xlv Table 11 Population of Countries and Economies in the 'Other" Categories . .xx Table 12 Population Age 0-14, 15-64, and 65 and Over for All Countries and Economies, 1985-2025 ..................................... I Table 13 Stationary Population, Momentum, and Year When Net Reproduction Rate Reaches 1 for All Countries and Economies ...................... xiv Table Al Sources of Population Data .lxviii Table A2 Assumed Annual Increments to Life Expectancy .lxxxiii Table A3 Assumed Annual Decrements to Infant Mortality Rate .lxxxiii Figure I Projected Population (billions) in Less Developed Countries, 1985-2025, Compared with U.N. and Previous World Bank Projections .xvi Figure 2 Projected Population (billions) in More Developed Countries, 1985-2025, Compared with U.N. and Previous World Bank Projections .xvi Figure 3 Projected Population Growth Rates, 1990-2000 .xviii Figure 4 Percentage Distribution of World Population by Continent, 1985, 2000, and 2025 .xx Figure 5 Population Densities in East, South, and Southeast Asia .xxii Figure 6 Population Densities in Africa .xxiii Figure 7 Total Fertility Rates, 1990 .xxiv Figure 8 Life Expectancy at Birth, 1990 .xxv Figure 9 Pecentage Distribution to World Population Gkvowth from World Bank Regions and Nonborrowers, 1985-2100 .xxix Figure Al Assumed Life Expectancy Trend, Less Developed Counties, and U.N. and Previous World Bank Trends .lxxxv Figure A2 Assumed Life Expectancy Trend, More Developed Countries, and U.N. and Previous World Bank Trends .lxxxv Figure A3 Assumed Medium Trend and Alternative Slow and Rapid Trends in Total Fertility During the Fertility Transition .xxxvi Figure A4 Assumed Trends in Total Fertility at the End of the Fertility Transition .... Lxxxvi . . rv TAlU. FKIU, AwD BoxEs Figure AM Pomeatge of Total Fertility Assigned to Different Ages, 1v I evel of TOl Fertility ..........................l....... Ixxxvi Figur A6 Assumed Total FetiUity Trend, Less Developed Countries, and U.N. and Previous World Bank Trends I.lxxxvii Fipgu A7 Assumed Total Fertility Trend, More Developed Countries, and U.N. and Previous World Bank Trends .lxxxvii Box 1 Illustrative Table with Population Trends. x Box 2 Illustrative Table with Population Projections .xii Box 3 Trends in Urbanization .xvii Box 4 Contraceptive Prevalence Levels and Trends .xxi Box S Countries and Economies Classified by Income Group (Based on GNP per Capita in 1988 U.S. Dollars) .xxx Box 6 Countries and Economies Classified by World Bank Region and Country Depgrtment . xxxii Box 7 Government Assessments of Population Growth . xxxv PREFACE Populator projections for all countries and econories are prepared annually by the PopIation and Human Resources Department of the World Bank. They are published first in summary form in th& Bank's World Developmwnt Report and later in greater detail as working papers and, in alternate year, as a book. This set of projections, the thirteenth in the series, was prepared for World Developmcn Report 1990. No other publication is planned this year. Separte working papers cover each of the Dank's four regions. Africa (Sub-Saharan), Asia (including Oceania); Europe, the Middle East and North Africa (including the U.S.S.R.); and Latin America ad the Caribbean (and Northern America). Each of the papt ;ncludes tables on regional and global aggregates, and together they cover all countries of the world. hno preaentStion of the data has undergone a major revision in this edition. Included as a new ftature are selective demographic indicators for the recent past, as well as information on contracpdve use ar1 on population policy where this is available. We intend these papers to provide a convenient and up-to-date reference on the recent demographic past and likely future of each country. We welcome comment on their utility, and how this might be enhanced. Anthony R. Measham Chief Population, Health, and Nutrition Division v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS A number of persons provided us with important information for this work or assisted us in preing it in other ways. The Estimates and Projections Section of the U.N. Population Division has bw continually supportive in providing us with data, even before their publication as U.N. assossmC.L.. Partly as a result, nonessential differences between these projections and the biennial U.N. ixssessments have been minimized. We are grateful to the section chief, Larry Heligman, and to his continually accommodating staff, as well as to the head of the Division, Shunichi Inoue. We hope that the collaboration will continue. Leo Morris, chief of the Behavioral Epidemiology and Demographic Research Branch of the Division of Reproductive Health at the Centers for Disease Control, kindly provided us with preliminary data from the most recent contraceptive prevalence surveys. World Bank country economists, demographers, and population specialists in the operating divisions have also provided US with reoent population estimates, bringing to our attention government reports we might not otherwse see. Toe exercise was carried out using a personal computer program, Proj3L, written by KeLneth Hill of Johns Hopkins University. A documented version of this program on 5.25" diskettes was issued in late 1990 as a World Bank publication, Proj3S: A Computer Programfor Population Projections: Diskenes and Reference Guide. Both the Population, Health, and Nutrition Division and the Population and Human Resources Department have been supportive of this work, despite the time required. We are grateful to the division chief, Dr. Anthony R. Measham, and the department diiector, Ann 0. Hamilton. We also wish to acknowledge the in\erest of the Bank's International Economics Socioeconomic Data Division (IECSE), which utilizes these figures--for such purtposes as estimating per capita GNP--and incorporates them into the databases it maintains and publications it distributes, and also helps coordinate communications with country economists. In producing tht manuscript, Coni Benedicto was responsible for coordinating the paper flow. Eduard Bos Patience W. Stephens MyT. Vu Rodolfo A. Bu!atao vii INTRODUCTION his ppe provides populatior projections for each country, economy, or territory in one World Dak region, as well as for notuorrower countries in the same geographic area. Three companion papers provide similar projections for the other Bank regions. Each paper also contains projections for groups of countries in the same geographic region, or at the same income level. These projections are updated annually. In this 1990-91 edition, projections are provided in a pew formal to permit the inclusion of data on recent demographic trends. lhis introducti-- (similar across the four regional papers) explains the format of the data tables and summarizes main demographic trends and projection results. Projection methods have changed only marginally since the previous edition. Essentially, recent country-specific data about levels and trends in fertility, mortaliiy, and international migration are appliod to available age-sex distributions in order to obtain short-run orojections. Long-run projections, up to 2150, are also made under the assumptions that fertility and mortality eventually become stable and net international migration declines to zero. One change in procedures from last year involves allowing a slightly higher long-run level of life expectancy. This and other details of the methodology amre described in an appendix, which also provides an cxplanation o; C.ta sources. Caution is appropriate with all projections like these. They essentially involve working out the implications of assumptions about demographic trends. None of the results should be interpreted as indicating certitude about the future. Instead, they should be red4 with the universal qualifier that population will follow the indicated path if the assumptions prove to be cor.ict. FORMAT OF TABLES Each country, economy, or territory is covered in two pages: the first to provide recent demographic trends and the second to provide population projections. The first page (illustrated and explained in Box 1) provides estimates of total population and population composition for 1980, 1985, and 1990, as well as estimates of vital rates for the five- year pericds preceding each of these dates (1975-80, 1980-85, and 1985-90). The second page (illustrated and explained in Box 2) provides projections for every five years from 1990 to 2025, and for every 25 years from 2025 to 2150. Various indicators of vital rates are given for the intervening five-year or 25-year periods. The second page also includes population pyramids and graphical comparisons between the country and the region and the income group to which it belongs. Unlike previous editions, this edition does not provide detailed age-sex structures. (Bank staff can still obtain these from the authors.) Instead, the population pyramids illustrated in Box 2 show the current and a projected age-sex distribution. The countries covered are 181 in all, tol'ther with six groups of "other" countries too small to allow independent treatment. Two changes in international boundaries--the unification of the Yemens and the Germanys--are too recent to be reflected in these tables, which still treat them as four separate entities. ix x IroucnON Box I KENYA 1. ROcont, Trends A t rtf e ms, AL. 79): 15328 Region: SU-Saaeran Africa a up per apiw 4tl delltws. 1988): 369 Incame Groupi Low paupstiorI w_ stnxtw LUnit of masure 190 1905 199 C Totat Poputation (mid-year) Thousands 632 20096 24133 D Ae Structure 0-4 .'.;usands 3541 433 477 514* Thousands 4792 5925 7480 15-64 Thousards 7736 9194 11200 65+ Thousands 562 614 674 E mlty Pop. per sq. km. 29 35 43 F U.Antsttion: Percent urban 16 20 24 R iScoe-e pop,ulation 6tl Thouanb 2996 3706 4700 0 .12-17E :: 0 Thoa 2309 2763 4U N Womsn of ohiledarirW age 15-49 Thousands 3364 4042 4980 Vittt at_ aid policy Unit of me_nwe 1975-8U 13m0-U 13-90 ! AnnwuI growth rate Percent 3.8 3.8 3.7 Fortility J Totel fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 6.1 7.9 7.0 K Crude birth rate (CBR) Births per 1000 pop. 54 53 48 Nortality L Life expectancy at birth Ceo) Nalt* Years 51.5 54.0 56.5 Fassles Years 55.5 57.8 60.5 M Infint mortaflity rate tIR) Per 10CO live births 88 80 72 N Under 5 mortality risk (q1) 1000 q6 143 128 113 O Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 16 14 11 P Net migration Thousands 10 10 o Govt. ssesament of Peulstion growth rato Too high Too high Too high Fortility Too high Too high Too high Contrecqpt-f . Unit of *ewr Prvious Latest R Contracaptiw prevslene percent of married 17 27 Year women 15-49 u.ing 1984 1989 S Contraceptive six Percent using Pilt 3 5 lud 3 4 F _le str Itzation 3 5 Note sterilization 0 0 Cndom 0 1 Other modern 1 4 TraditIonal a 9 Ilbadve tabk with population trends l,C>. x Explanation A. 0i thousnds as of the official date of the last census. ThimW g8 ross national product (in U.S. dollars) per capita, from World Bank sourco9. A Estimated de facto total population at mid-year, in thousands. 0. Pouation In four non-overiapping age groups, in thousands. . opulation pr squaro kilometer ' land area. f total population living In urban areas. definition of urtn areas varies sMoewht from country to count.y. See U.N. 1988, p. 1. ˘. Popuation aged 611 and 12-17 years, in thousands. K Number of womrn'; of reproductive ago (15.49), In thousands. L. Annual wth rate for populatiorn in the quinquennium, in percent. . Total number of births that each woman would have if, at each age she had 8S many births as women of that age in the current population, i.e., if current age-specific feIitty schedules ware applied. K. Annual births par thousar.d persons in the population. L. Average number of years tha woLid be lived by those born into the population, if they experienced prevailing age-specific mortality risks (separate estimates provided for males and females). V. Of very thousand live births, the number that would die before their first birthday. N. Of every thousand live births, the number that would die before their fifth binhday. 0. Annual deaths per thousand persons in the population. P. Amount of net intemational migration in thousands (i.e., number of immigrants minus emirabnts over the quinquennium). 0. Officil ovemment evaluation of the population growth rate and of fertility as too high or too low, as reported to the U.N. R. Percentage of currently ii.arried women aged 15 to 44 (or 49) who are using contraception, in the year given immediately below. This is the year of a specific survey or Investigation. S. O 11a cuirently married women, percent using specified contraceptive methods. For many developing countries, these data are not available or are available for only one period only. All contraceptive mix data are given for the latest period for which data are available. xu iwh^oouvnON Box 2 KENYA 2. Prnjectia6 - NRR-1 by 2035 A D E F a H I Growth '0 '0 45 eter Population r tio Period rate C8 CD4 TFR Natet Fltes I xlO1O 1990 24133 115.S 1990-94 3.40 43.3 9.4 4.32 56.1 62.3 62 96 1995 2&99 107.3 1995-99 3.27 40.7 " 1 5.64 59.'9 64.2 52 79 2000 33679 96. 200O-04 3.11 38 0 6.9 4.95 61.7 66.3 43 63 200S 39344 $6.? 2005-09 2.81 34.3 6.2 4.24 63.2 67.9 39 55 2010 45274 81.1 2010-14 2.42 29.7 5.5 3.53 64.8 69.6 35 48 2015 51090 72.3 2014-19 1.96 24.6 4.9 2.82 66.4 71.3 30 40 2020 56364 62.3 2020-24 1.84 23.0 4.6 2.58 68.0 73.1 26 33 2025 61610 54.6 2025-49 1.35 18.0 4.8 2.14 71.9 77.3 15 18 2050 66516 46.4 2050-74 0.68 13.9 7.2 2.05 76.3 82.2 5 7 2075 102492 60.4 2075.99 0.23 12.5 10.2 2.05 79.0 85.2 3 5 2100 108576 69.1 2100-24 0.10 12.0 11.0 2.04 8t1. 87.6 2 4 2125 111371 71.5 2125-49 0.05 11.8 11.4 2.04 81.8 88.5 2 3 2150 112665 n7.1 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 -L--- 75 + .. _ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-64 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 ~0-14 5-9 0-4 10 oe 4 2 0 2 4 6 tO 10 C 84 2 0 2 4 * 810 4. Comparison of Country with Region arnd Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eo Growth rate Co4atry Reion T'ncom group Country Reston Incoume group Country Region Income grou.p Illustrave table with population projecnons looucroN x,, Explanation A. Year to which point estimates pertain. B. Population of country or aggregate in thousands. C. Population aged 0 to 14 years and 65 years and above, as a percentage of those aged 15 to 64, i.e., the number of dependent persons per 100 in the working age group. D. Five or 25-year period to which rates pertain. E. Annual population growth rate, in percent. F. Annual births per thousand population. 0. Annual deaths per thousand population. H. Total number of births that each woman would have if, at each age she had as many biths as women of that age In the current population, I.e., if current age-specific fertility schedules were applied. ;. Average number of years that would be lived by male babies born into the population, if they experienced prevaling age-specific mortality risks. J. Average number of years that would be lived by female baoies born into the population, if they experienced prevaling age-specific mortality risks. K. Of every thousand live births, the number that would die before their first birthday. L. Of every thousand live births the number that would die before their fifth birthday. Age structure: The population pyramids in the center of the page show the distribution of the population by age and sex in 1990 and in 2025. Each bar is the percentage of the population in a given five-year age-sex group, with meles on the left of the center line, females on the right, the youngest age group at the bottom, and the oldest age group at the top. Populations with high fertility and mortality generally have broad-based pyramids with narrow tips. Populations that have had stable low fertility and mortality for some time generally have pyramids that are increasingly rectangular. Comparison of country with region and income group Charts at the bottom of the page compare the country with the region or income group to which it belongs, with respect to total fertility, life expectancy at birth, and population growth rate. The comparison region or income group is indicated at the top of the preceding page. xiv INTroucrioN OVERVIEW OF TRENDS AND PROJECI1ONS We eview recet trends and projections for the future, focusing, fist, on the world and geogmphic regions; and second, on World Bank regions and on countries grouped by income; and finaly on petcular countries or economies. Rewent trends, from 1975 to 1990, are striling because of the rapid changes occurring in some countrie and the absence of change in others. Some sountries, especially in Southeast Asia and Latin America, experienced sharp declines in fertility, large increases in life expectancies, and a slowdown in population growth. Others, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, saw persistent high levels of fertility, mortality, and population growth. Still others, mainly in Europe, had stable fertility below replacemnt (i.e., below the level required for each generation to replace itself in the succeeding generation) and slow population growth during the enti-e period. The projections carry forward, and work out the future implications of these trends country by country but also iniroduce some dramatic changes, such as eventual fertility transition in Sub-Sahamn Africa. World and Regions The aggreptes we consider here, besides the world u a whole, are more developed and les developed countries; five major geographic regions, corresponding roughly to continents, but with North and South America considered together, the U.S.S.R. combined with Europe, and the Pacific treated with Australia s Oceania; and some subcontinental regions. For all these aggregates, Tables 1-5 give estimates of current and projected population size and growth; current and projected fertility and mortality rates; current and projected age structure and dependency ratios; and projected long-run treads. These subjects will be considered in order. Pepulaoi Sim and Growth The world population in mid-1990 is estimated at 5.28 billion. It is growing at almost the same rate as in 1975, but the number of people added each year has risen continuously since then. Since the mid-1970s, world population growth has been virtually constant at just over 1.7 percent annually, but the number of people added in 1990 is up 20 million from 1975, to 91 million. The rate of growth will fall to 1.4 percent annually at the beginning of the 21st century. In spite of this, the annual net increase in the number of people will be larger in the year 2000 than in 1990, around 92 million people. Average annual additions to the world population are projected to increase between 1990 and 2005. They will begin a steady decline around 2020. Annual additions will be esentially stable at around 91.5 million between 2005 and 2015. Of the 440 million increase in the world population between 1985 and 1990, 406 million (92 percent) was contributed by less developed countries which, in 1990, contained 77 percent of the world populition. The 1985-90 growth rates for less developed and more developed countries were widely different, at 2.1 and 0.6 percent respectively. The less developed country growth rate is falling and by the beginning of the 21st century will have declined by close to 20 percent, to 1.7 percent per annum. Nevertheless, the differences in growth rates between less developed and more developed countries mean that 79 percent of the world population will be living in what are currently less developed countries by the beginning of the 21st century, up from 77 percent in 1990. By 2025, 84 percet of the world population will be living in areas currently classified as less developed. At these levels of aggregation, these projections differ only slightly from the U.N. (1990) an lat year's World Bank projections (Bulatao et al. 1990), as Figure 1 shows. The projected less INThOCUCTiON XV developed ceoy populaton in 2025 is only 0.3 percent higher than Ist year's projection and 1 pI omd lower ta d U.N. projection. As shown in Figure 2, the differncs are wider for more doveoped coutoe. The current projection for 2025 is 3 percent higher than lst year's projection and 1.2 percePt higor than the U.N. projetion. Thee differences are due not only to differences in procedur for projecting vital rtes but also to slightly different estimates of current population and vital rae. Since 1975, major world regions have been growing at quite different rates, which are changing in differt directions. In Sub-Sahan Africa, the population growth rate has been iwtOinc stdily from anD ady high 2.8 percent in the 197o to 3.1 perent in the most reent five-year perio (1985-90). In the Asia reion (excluding developed countries), growth rates declined betwoe 1975 and 1985 from 1.9 to 1.8 percent, but have inched up recently a China's fertility tition stopped short of replacement. In North Africa and the Middle East, population growth rates show a slight inrease, from 2.8 peret in 1975-80 to 3.0 percent annually in 1985-90. Slowing population growth rate are observed in the les developed counts of Latin America and the Caribbea (down from 2.3 to 2.0 percent annually) and for the more developed countries (from 0.7 to 0.5 percnt annually). Growth is spread unevenly, with urban areas generaly growing faster than rural areas, as Box 3 decribes. hes differential growth rats will continue for the next decade (as Figure 3 illustrates) an for some time into the future. Current and projected population and growth rates for five major rgions are shown in Tabls 1 and 2. (All tables appear at the end of this section, beginning on page xxxviii.) The prcentage distribution of world population by these regions is represented for 1985, 2000, and 2025 in Figure 4. Asia, with the two most populous countries in the world, accounts for 59 percent of the world population, and currently contributes 61 percent of the annual increse, or about 56 million people. By 2025, Asia will still be adding some 48 million people annually to the world population. Averge annual contributions of other major regions between 1990 and 2025 will be much less: 27.3 million for Africa, 9.6 million for America, 2.6 million for Europe, and 0.3 million for Oceania. Asia's annual contribution to world population growth will undergo the most rapid decline (14 percent between 1990 and 2025). However, even with a reduced rate of growth and a decline in its averge contribution to world population increase, Asia's population by 2025 will be just about 5 billion-- approximately the size of the entire world population in 1987. The rising population densities reulting from this growth are shown in Figure 5. Two major Asian subregions have opposite prospects. East and Southeast Asia (which includes China) now contains one-third of the world population. Its share will fail to 30 percent in 2025 nd to 25 percent by 2100. South Asia (which include India) ranks second in population and contains 22 percent of the world population. Its share will increase to 25 percent by 2100. Africa currently is the fourth largest among the five major regions, with about 12 percent of the world population. With an annual growth rate of 2.9 percent in 1990, Africa by the year 2000 will be the second lgest region, with 14 percent of the world population. The growth rate will fall slowly to 2.1 percent by 2020-25, and the region will have 19 percent of world population by 2025. Afiica's contribution to world population growth will increae by 58 percent between 1990 and 2025. By that time, its population will be two and a half times its current size. Africa's population is now 20 parcent the size of Asia's, and will be 32 percent by 2025. As Figure 6 shows, Africa is considebly le dense than Asia, but densities will rise rapidly. Among African subregions, East, West, and North Africa have 42, 37, and 22 percent xm l T -urm Rprn I Projected Popudatlon (billions) in Less Developed Countries, 1985-2025, Compared with U.N. and Previous World Bank Projections 7, 0 645 .S 4. , 3.5 1965 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 igure 2 Projected Population (billions) in More Developed Countries 1985-2025, Compared with U.N. and Previous World Bank Projections 1 39 I, 37- 1 36 - 1 35 - 1 34 1 33 -CUARE U N 1 32 -PREVIOUS 1 31 1 30 1 29- 1 29- 1 27- 1 26- 1 25- 1 24- 1 23- 1 22- 1 21- 1 20- 18 19~ 1995 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 INToaUcno xvw Sox s iiwuk *1 Urw*nano ,'',i" m deveop Count's". u.a"n populo Prowth ee oVer ppaon .Sub-Sahran Africa is do s urbaized regi, but is urban le grlu ser tha dhe urboan pmprto*n In mny othe reg ion pcpt Arile, havig Ieresedftl 24 to 31 pwert in l 90. Urba pwt ae are paiculaly bg ST=401160, MoxAmblq., mAd Swauiland. At tk. sme time, sevmra counttieo-- 90nd Sidad Paso, Rwa, Ugada-n ovwhelmingly rural, with lk tban 10 pecent of total popiation in urban are. The Asa population HIving in uran areas ha iseued fm 22 to 41 p˘rn of th total i the put 15 yea. his rapid _n is largely du to China, whee the dudulon of whet: conti an wur am ha been libeld duriqg t perod. In Midle Nut and North Afde combined, 46 pae of the popuaton i. urban, la: La: Amere m tX Caribben, the propordon of Xt populaon in urban aoos is quat; tlat in dh doveoped codutries, 72 pet. Urba,', ation in the developed AuutrIw No oome to a vizta standt at 72 peret A hw countrls-tomania ad Austriaha declng urban populatons, whie th percn urbiIn &0 U.S.A. haa not changed s' thw 1970s. of the Afican population respectively. North Africa's share is forecast to decline to 18 percent by 2025, while the shares of East and West Africa will each increase by two percentage points. America, with 14 percent of world population, includes both more developed and less developed countries and is growing, as a whole, more slowly than Africa and Asia (1.1 percent annually). By 2025, its population will have increased by 46 percent, but its share of world population will have fallen to 13 percent. Northern America's share of the population of the whole region will shrink rapidly. By 2025, 335 million more people should be living in America than in 1990. Of this increase, 271 million (81 percent) will be added to Latin America and the Caribbean and only 64 million to Northern America. The population of Oceania, estimated at about 27 million in 1990, will also increase about 45 percent by 2025. Growth rates will be roughly similar in level and trend to those for America, declining from 1.6 percent annually in 1985-90 to 0.7 percent in 2025. Europe and the U.S.S.R., now second in size to Asia, will be only the fourth largest major region by 2000. Its shire of world population will shrink from 15 to 10 percent of world population by 2025. Its population in 2025 will be only 12 percent larger than it is today, reflecting annual growth rtes of 0.2 to 0.4 percent between now and 2025. These rates assume that fertility will rise from below-replacement levels in several countries. Should this not occur, even this modest projected growth will not be achieved. FeflWJy Figure 7 shows the current level of the total fertility rate (1FR) by country. For the world . a whole, total fertility is 3.3 in 1990. Countries with high TFRs are found mainly in Africa and the Middle Eat, with only one country (Laos) with a TFR above 6 outside these regions. Asian and Latin American countries have mostly intermediate levels, with the notable exception of China, xvw wmxA JRgre 3 Projected populion growth rates, 1990-2000 A l growth Under 1% 1% to 1.9% 2% to 2.9% Billions 3X or .nore 32 - Population, 30 -_ {20D'' J~~~~~~~~~~~ 5 2% t2.9X 3illions m2.5- Increase in populationon1 0 from 199u 1990-2000 ,.5 - 0.5 - 05- Increase in population -7 from 1990 to 2000 10 0. °- 00 Americe Africa E.rope/USSO Alsk Oceamia Am~eriK AfIMa EuropeIUSSR ASIa OceamIA IKTNOouCO xIx wh&Is lIn dho low-fertlity category. AUl developed ountries are in the low-fetility group. Rcet trends in TFRs indicate remarkably little chane from the mid-1970. to the peet in Sub-Saaan Africa. Only haf a dozen countrs show declinig ferility, an equal number owe ncaing fertility, ad the majority shows no change at all. Those with declining fetiliy dsnc the mid-97 are small islands (Mauritius, Seychellsc, Rdunion), recntly Joined by some counrie in EAst Africa (Botwna, Zimbabwe, Kenya). In North Africa, except in Libya, fertlity decline tuted some time in the past two decades. The Middle Eat is similar to Sub-Saharan Africa, with f.rility constat at high lovels, with a few exceptions where fertility has declined to intermediate keve (Bahain, Kuwait, the United Aab Emirates). In Asia, almost all countries experienced at lest some ferdlity decline. In Latin America and te Caribbean, trends in most countries are downward, but not as rpidly as in Southeat Asia. both Asia d Latin America include countries that statd the tranition before the 1970s (e.g., Cuba and Taiwan), countries that started during the 1970s (e.g., Ecuador and Indonesia), and countries which have yet to stat the fertlity trition (Bolivia and Las). Among the more developed countries, frtdlity coninued to decline from levels aldy bdow replacen_t, or fluctuAod in a nurow renge. Vaiations in contraceptive prevalence are largely responsible for the differenca in fertiliy lovels. The data on contraceptive levels nd trends are summarized in Box 4. The projetions of fertility extend country-specific fertility trends into the fture, unde the goneal sumption that each country has gone, is going, or will go through a tnition procs from high ferdlity to stable low fertility. Recent trends are used to define th tieming and the paco of this tranition proces (see the appendix). Projected fertlity departs radically from reoent trends in tW cirma . For countries with rising or stable high fertility (such as in Sub-Sabuan Africa) subsantial fertlity decline is eventually projected. And for counti with fatiliy below replaemnt, a gradual return to and stabilization at replcement level is eventually projected. Projcted fertility rtes are summarized in Table 3 for the wodrd, les developed and more developed oountries, and geographic regions. The world total fertility rae is projecte to decline by half a point to around 2.9 at the beginning of the 21st century and to decline an additional 0.5 points by 2025-30. These declines of less than 1 percent annually incorporate substantial reduction in les developed countries and a stable or even rising trend for many more developed countries. For more developed countries as a whole, TFR begins to increase after 1995-2000 te a level of 2.0 by 2025. For les developed countries, in contrast, TFR will decline from 3.9 in 1985-90 to 2.5 in 2025-30, or about 1 percent annually over the whole period. Given that fertility is not likely to decline much further in China and a few other large es developed countries, the overall reduction expected to occur in other countries will be subsantial. In Africa ad Southwest and South Asia, these projections imply that over the next 40 years or so- from 1985-90 to 2025-30--fertility will decline to half its current level. For Africa, total fertility is projected to decline from 6.2 to 3.1. (For West Africa in particular, decline will be from 6.6 to 3.2.) In Southwet Asia, the projected fertility decline is from 5.1 to 2.7, and for South Asia from 4.7 to 2.3. Other world regions will experience smaller changes in fertility. East and Southeat Asia, including China, is expected to experience a fertility decline of 0.5 children per woman between 1985-90 and 2025-30. Since this region has 58 pecent of Asia's population, the decline for Asia a a whole will be modest, from 3.4 to 2.2. Decline in total fertility in Latin America ad the Caribbean will be ffom 3.6 to 2.1 children. The decline in Ooeania will be from 2.5 to 2.1 children. On the other hand, North America and Europe will experience increses in fertility from below repacement lvels. xx lmneLTWN FlRup 4 Percemage Distrnbution of World Population by Major Region, 1985, 2000, and 2025 1985 *,ram am u s R A* 03 an A/ go t 2000 Omw Co M Euroce and U S.S P. C1O 4%J 2025 ,l X, g~~~~~~~~~~~Ae c"i. co C 2s) INTrOOucTOtN XxU : ;ez g. :4 Conraceptive Prewdence Level and Trends Dt oa contacpdon ame fidy extsivo. Surveys such s the World FUility ftrv in hew I9 and ealy 1980., the Conftaoepdve Prvalec Srveys, and the Demov l ad Hah Surveys from the w;,' 980, have moered the proportion of cos usg coontepdon. Out of 181 oouanziw, 126 hv had at es two surveys. Trohrfor, may of the country table show two estmate of the concepive prevalence re (CPR), Howevr, trends should be intpmsd with caution, as snmpling, coverge, ad defitions usd in the surveys may be different. Fetility rtes sugest that nany colsa widwout aontaeptive use data glenly have low prclenoe. In particular ountrie witout dta, however, both contwreve us and fertility oe low, and abortion is used to prevent births (e.g., in the U.S.S.R. and the German Democratic Republic). Co4tmeptive prevalnce is highest in developed outre, whew 700 peoret of mad coup&w us some method. Method mix in thee ad other counr with Upg prvalnc vies a grt dal: in Eastern Europe, couph use tradidon methods such u wifdtal and abstnenc; in the Ntherlands, over half of all wcupl uwe conracedve pO;: in Canad, feme stbrilizaton is dte most common ma thod; in Cuba, the IUD is the mt. pevaln metod4; ix Finland, condoms ar rlid on most. Tb. higs conooteptve prevaeanc ra In Sub,Sham Afra ar 43 percent fr Zim In 196S, and 30 prcent for Botwaa in 99. Por most oher coun in the region, uontraptive pevance is below 5 poeret Seval couniea in Asia and the Middl st have sa miy low levels of prevalenc. The method mlx in low coceptive prevalence coune shows as much variety as that in high prevaene counte. In Asia, RIDeare widely used, but couple in India rely moniy on female seilizao. In Lati Amaei ad the Caribbean, fale eilizaon W an importat method, but not in Chile, where the IUD is most popular. Over time, a few countries with low or ln,nmediat CPRs bow decliinW use: Hgiti, Fii, Guatemala, and Guya. The majoriy sbow inces. Ovenll, contraceptive pill use has beow declining, whereas all other metbods--IU=s and fhmale stelizatn in particular--have been gaining. Levels and projected trends in crude birth rates are a result of the assumptions about the trend in total fertility rates in combination with assumptions about age structure. The current crude birth rate for the world is 26.3 and the projected rate for 2025 is 18.0. Tne crude birth rate in less developed countries, currently more than twice as high as in more developed countries, is projected to decline by 36 percent by 2025, % .ile the rate for more developed countries drops only 15 percent. The diffeetial between more developed country and less developed cointry crude birth rtes is expected to decline from 16 per thousand in 1985-90 to 8 per thousand by 2020-25. Unlike total fertfility, the crude birth rate will decline in every region without exception. These declines will be larger where the rate is now higher. From 45 per thousand in Africa, it will fall to 26 per thousand in 2025-30. From 15 per thousand in Europe, it will fall to 12 per thousand in 2025-30. Wherea the African crude birth rate is now three times the European rate, by 2025-30 it will be about double the European rate. xx. kTnom RPrw 5 Population densides in East, South, and Southeast Asia 1960 sP w sq k WU' s k7gure 6 Population densities in Africa 1960 1990 2020 I--- 4 Xxiv INTRODUCTION Flgure 7 Total fertilit. rates, 1990 Total fertility 3.0 to 4.4 4.5 to 5.9 6.0 or higher Under 3 under 3 4 9% 3 to 4.4 19% 6 or more or more ~~~~~12% 1 7 % to o2r 6 % o r e3 to 4a4 4.5 to 5.9 17 2% 32% 7% Distribution of countries Distribution of world population by total fertility level by national total fertility level INThOCUCTION XXV FIgure 8 Life apectancy at birth, 1990 Life expectancy 75 to /9 65 to 75 _ 55 to 65 40 to 55 65- 24 75 or more 43% *75 or miiore 42%~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1 ,.;:::::I * .u... Im Under 55 Under 55 12% 55-64 24% 18%6 55- 64 31% Distribution of countries Distribution of world population by life expectancy at birth by national life expectancy at birth LIvl of Ulf oxpctancy at birth aound the world are rprest in Fgure 8. For the world a a wbol, the current estimate is 66 year. Sub-Saharn Africa ha the lowest life expectancy (50 yea for mal, 54 yas for females), traing the Middle Eat and North Africa combined by more th 10 yea. Despite subsantial improvemnts in the past 15 yea, current Sub-S3aharan life expctacy is st below the level that the Middle East and North Africa attaiad in the 1970,. Morbtity condition bady improved during the 1980. in Tanzania, Mada_cr, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Senegal, but life expectancy did rise faster than the region's averge in Botuwan, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Cape Verde, Gabon, and Swaziland. Avoege life expectcies for the leu developed countrieo in Norti Africa, thc Middle Eat, Asia, an Latin America are quite similar, with life expectacy for mal betweec 61 and 63 year and life expectancy for females between 64 ad 68 yar. Mm developd countries have life expctancies of at leat 65 year for mals and at least 74 y.An for females. The highest observed life expectancies are in Japan--75 year for males, 81 for femae. Trends in most countries are sti upward, but the rate of Inrea is considerobly slower at high levels. In Easer Europe and the Soviet Union, life expectacy has remained vitually consta at 1970. levels due to incresing adult motlity rat. Table 3 provides projected mortality trends fr aggrega. asr riec in ife expectancy are projectd whoe it is now lower than where it is now higher. However, some differtiation in projections is intoduced among countries with the same life expectancy lvels based on recent trends (o the appendix). For the world as a whole, life expectancy at birth is projected to reach 70 around 2010. This mar will actually be attained by les developed countries a a group around 2015, at which time more developed countries should have exceeded it by about 10 yea. This gap in life expectancy is smaller than the current 12-year gap but still substantial. Current crude death rat are identical for ls and more developed countries because less developed countries have a smallr proportion of their populations in older age groups. Substantial differentials exist, and are projected to remain, in the levels of mortality across major regions. Currently life expectancy is lowest and infsnt mortality highest for Africa. Life expectancy for this region as a whole is 53 years and infant mortality is 105 per 1000 live births. Asia occupies an intermediate position with a life expectancy of 64 years, whereas levels in Europe and Oceania ae generally around 72 to 73 ye.rs Within major regions, differences in mortality can be large. Life expectancy in South Asia is 12 yes shorter than in East and Southeast Asia; Latin America's levels ar some 10 years shorter than Northern America's; and West Africans can expect a 10-year shorter life span than North Africans. Differentials within and between regions will narrow slowly over tne projection period, but remain substantial even by 202S-30. By that time, differentials between South Asia and Eas and Southeast Asia, and between West Africa and North Africa, will have been reduced to eight year. Levols of life expectancy within America will be more similar, with only a five-year difference between Latin America and the Caribbean and Northern America. INThOOLU'oN XXW Of the 5.3 billion people in 1990, 61 percent were in the woring ges of 15-64, giving a depednc ado (of those younger and older combined per hundred members of this group) of 63. By 2025, the world dpedency ratio is projected to fall to 55. Children and youth under 15 will have filenfrom 32 to 2 perowt of the population, while the aged 65 and over wil have risen from 6 to 10 percet (ble 4). Prjojed trends in more developed and less developed countries are quite different. In more developgl countries, the number of children and youth will actually decline from 259 to 247 million between 1990 and 2025, reflecting the impact of falling fertility. They will fall from 21 to 18 percent of the total. Thoe ged will almost double in number, and by 2025 will outnumber children ad youth. The depandecy ratio in more developed countries will rise from 50 to 63 between 1990 and 2025. To dependency ratio in loe developed countries will docline from 67 in 1990 to 53 in 2025. This dacline will be a result of a reduction in the proportion of the population aged 0-14 (from 38 to 27 percent) and the rapid growth in the woring-age population, which will almost double in sie. The aged will incrase much fater in less developed countrie than in more developed countries, multiplying three-fold between 1990 and 2025. However, they are now only 4 percent of the population, ad will increas to only 8 percent. Of the major regions, Africa has the larget proportion of total population under 15: 45 peet in 1990. Those under 15 will still be 36 percent of the Afican population by 2025. Corresponding percentages in other regions are much lower: the next highest is 33 percent for Asia, and this is projected to decline to ?2 percent by 2025. Only 22 percent of Europe and the U.S.S.R.'s population is under 15, and this will decline to 18 percent by 2025. Consistent with these changes, the dependency ratio will decline in Africa, Asia, and America. Bdween 1990 and 2025, the rato will fall from 94 to 66 in Africa, from 61 to 54 in America, and from 61 to 51 in Asia. On the other hand, in Europe and the U.S.S.R. the dependency ratio will increase from 51 to 62 as the population ages. The dependency ratio for Oceania will stay almost unchanged close to .5. Lo.u-AR Treud The long-run implications of the projection assumptions are illustt in Table 5, which shows projection up to 2100 - well as other indicators. With every country and economy projected to reach replac t-level fardlity by or before 2060, world population will be over 12 billion by the end of the net conury. Another S00 million will be added before the population bocomes stationary, i.e., before the growth rase falls to zero. Table 5 shows the ratios to the 1990 population of the projected stationary population and of the projected population under the special assumptions that fertility drops to replacement level immedialy, mortality stays constat at current leves, and no migration takes place. The latter ratio, labdo population momentum, indicates the amount of future population growth attributable to the currmt age stu e of a population. An illusration of the importc of momentum is that more than two billion parons will be added to the world population after replaement ferdlity is achieved. Ftpultion momentum is lower for more developed than for les developed countries (1. I ad 1.5, res pctively). For more developed countries, the main source of growth until stationary population is atd is momentum. Hence the two rtios for more developed countriesare almost xxvI ITrnoCuc7) equal. For _eu developed counies, the two ratios differ. Momentum will lead to considerable grwth, but hiSg feility will add even more growth. Across major regions, population momentum is higbet for Africa at 1.6 and for America at 1.4. World Bank Regions and Income Groups The World Bank divide-s borrower countries, which account for three-fourths of world population, into four regions: Africa, essentially Sub-Saharan; Asia, excluding Southwest Asia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, but including the Pacific; Europe, the Middle East (up to Pakistan), and North Africa (EMN); and Latin America and dhe Caribbean (LAC). Within regions, countries are grouped into four to six country departments, most of which include more than one country (Box 5). Independently of this classification, the Bank also assigns all countries, more developed and less developed, for which data are available into one of four income groups (Box 6). This section consides the population and vita rates of Bank regions, country departments, and countries grouped by inoome. The discussion of Bank regions overlaps somewhat with the preceding discussion of geographic regions, which might oe consulted for further details. The division into Bank regions puts about half the world population in the Asia region and 8 to 10 percent of the population in each of the other regions. If China and India were excluded, the remainder of the Asia region, at 12 percent of world population, would be somewhat comparable in size to the other regions. The relative contributions of the regions to world population growth are shown in Figure 9 (see also Tables 6-7). The Asia egion is now contributing half of world population growth, and the other throe regions are each contributing 10 to 16 percent. The contribution to growth of the Asia region is projected to decline relative to the contributions of other regions. Around 2030, the Asia region's contribution to world population growth will fall below that of the Africa region and around 2065 below the contribution of the EMN region. The contributions of both the EMN and Africa regions are projected to rise, even with expected fertility transition. Around 2075, the Africa region will have only 22 percent of world population, but will be responsible for twice as much growth as the EMN region, the next largest contributor. In 2035, the EMN region will have 15 percent of world population, but will be responsible for a quarter of world population growth. Even with eventual fertility decline assumed, the Africa region will double in size in 25 years and the EMN region in 31 years. Population grwth in the LAC region is not insignificant either. This region is growing faster than the Asia region and has the same momentum as the Africa region. Even if the LAC region could attain replacement fertility immediately, population would still increase by 60 percent becaue of the young age structure. The country departments generally have growth prospects similar to those of the regions to which they belong. The departments covering the largest populations are the single-country China and India departments and the Southeast Asia department, the latter covering 300 million people. The remaining departments each cover between 42 and 194 million people. By 2025, these other departments, assuming they will still exist in the same form, will each cover between 114 and 466 million people. By 2000, both the smallest department, the Sahel, and the largest, the Middle East, will have gron 33 percent larger. Within the Africa region, which has the highest growth rates, the South Central-Indian Ocean and Western Africa departments will lead the tansition to slower popultio growth. The annual growth rates in these department will decline to under 3 in 2000 and under 2 by 2025. These departments do not include the recent leaders in the fertility transition in Africa. Two of those leaders, Botswaa and Zimbabwe, are included in the Southern Africa INTnoUCTION XXIx Fgww 9 Percentage Contrbuwon to World Popuatlon Growth from Bank Regions and Nonborrowers, 1985-210( so 40 . . A 20- LAC 30 - 1985 2000 2015 2030 2045 2080 207S 2090 department, which will still experience annual growth rates above 3 percent in 2000 and above 2 perent by 2025. Average annual population growth rates vaqr considerbly across Bank regions and country departments, as shown in Table 7. Growth ates are around 3 perent in all the Africa departments, and will remain generally around 3 untl after 2000. Growth rates in Asia depatments ar somewhat more variable. but generally around 2 percent, except for China with 1.4 percent. In the EMN departments, growth rates are around 3 percent exct for Europe, which has substantially lower growth and different growth prospects. The differences between regions and simirties within them are mainly rooted in fertility pattems (Table 8). Total fertility is above 6.5 in each Africa department; above 5.0 for three of the four EMN depatments; between 3.4 and 3.9 in each LAC department; and more variable only in the Asia region, where it ranges from 2.4 to 5.0 across departments. Mortality patterns are also quite similar among departments in each region. InIfnt morlity per thousand is over 100 in each Africa department; between 72 and 101 in three of the four EMN departments; between 50 and 65 in each LAC department; and more variable again in the Asia region, where it ranges from 32 to 114. Projcted trends will introduce only slightly more heterogeneity within regions: the Sahelian department, for instance, is expected to lag behind other Africa departments in both mortality and fertility decline. The long-run stationary population for each Africa department is at least five times and as much as seven times its curreat population (Table 9). The Middle East department comes close to the lower end of this range: its stationary population is 4.7 times its current population. In the log nnm, the population for the Turkey-Pakistan department is expocted to quadruple an the populaion for the North Africa department to triple. For most of the remaining departments, roughly a doubling of the population is projected. XXX INTROOUCTION Box S Countries and Economies Classifled by Income Group Lo lrn 150 or ts} Cast Africoa West Africa South Asia Uutrumni Benin Afghanistan CarC Burkina Fas Bangladesh Ethiopia Central African Rep. Bhutan Kesy Chad India Leotho Equatorial Cuirna M Mdfve Madp"acor Gambi, The Nepal Wooesl Ghan Pakistan 01i0 tqJe Guinea Sri Lanka RAande Guirn. irssau tot I A Liberia East and Southeast Asia Tnanf na Kat Kwpuchea Ugido: Nauritanim Chirn (exctuding Taiwan) XSro h Niger Indonesia 2uIbS Nigeria Lao Peopicls DM. Rep. Sao Tome ad Principe I1a1ar North Af ries Sferra. Le"n VIet Mam Togo Southwst Asfa Latin Awrica wd the Carilbean Yemn Peopits D_M. Rap. of Guyan Haiti Low-_e inoe, ($SU-S2,2OO) fest Africa Latin Amerca and the Caribbean Southwest Asia Sotswsn Boill2 Gaza Strip Djlbouti Bolivis Jordan lluritius Brazil Lanon Swaila1d Chile Syrian Arab Rep. Zi lbDbwe Colombia Turkey Costa Rica West Bank Wet Africa Dominica Yemen Arab Rep. Angola Dominican Rep. C_aroon Ecuador East and Southeast Asia Cape Verde El Satvador Mloaysic Congo, Peop"l's Rep. of the Grena Philippines Cotc d'lvolre Guatemla Thailand Senegal Horduras Jamaica Oceania North Africa Mexico Fiji Egypt, Arab Rep. of Hicaragua Kiribati Morocco Panea Other MIcrcnesia Tuniesi Patrguay Papua New Guinea Other North Africa Peru Solomon Islands St. Luwla Togsa Europe St. Vincent and the Grenadines Vanuatu Pot ed Western Samoa INRooucnoN xxx (bwed on GNP per capta in 1988 U.S. dollars) EFt Aflisa Latin Amrie wnd the Caribben Southwest Asia Se0f aMAntlga and Barbuda Iraq Sezbetl Argntine * Xi;* iSrlc ~ ~~~~GO"toupe m:rtinfiQw East ard Southeast Asia "t: Africe Kontrroot koro, Rep. of CO Other Latin Aeric M4cao .O. v.St Afrita Puerto RIco Unh AfelCA St. Kittts en Mavis OCania SaSurlr me Othor Palyqiei Trfnidad aHd Tobeot UruSy Venezuela Europe ~~V2 ˘ de"" South Asif ta~gary Iran, toemic Rop. of haltt i~Tsste˘ .I *1* lt_ O <, r0 mar Euroe Co ont.) Sotlibmt Asia (wop. Lux_ourg WelOW Norway Kuaiait Criil Istand, Spain Qatar Omr;k Sweden Saudi Arabia Finlad Switzerland United Arab ES rates Prance United Kingdom Germany, Federt Rcp, of East and Southest Asia Icoland Northern America Iruwnl treland Canada Hong Kong Other Europe United States of America Japwn Other llorthern America Sineapor. Taiwan, Chime Latin America and the Caribbean Bahams, Tho Oceanir Sarbedos Australis Nethwaords Antilles Fed. States of icronesie Virgin Isands (U.S.) French Polynesta GuM New Caledonia Ne Zealand Africa Latin Americe and the Caribbean Europe Namibia Cuba Albania Bulgarfa East and Southeast Asia Czechoslovakia Korea, Om. Peoples Rep. of Gerwan Dm. Rep. Mong i a U.S.S.R. XXXU INThODOCN Box 6 Countries and Economies Classifled Afrime ONO :lcrm} South-Central and Indian Ocean Southarn Africa Department (A06) Department (AF3) Angola occidntatl d Central Africs Burundi Botsawa Dqpartment (AFI) Comoroe Lesotho enin Dlibouti MaLawi C _.o~ ZMadagascar Nozmbuiqu. Central African Rep. Rwanda Swaziland Congo, People's Rep. of the SeycheLtea Tanzania Cot0 d'lvoire Zaire Zambia EqJetorat Guinea Zimboabu G ben Western Africa Department CAF4) Cuiln GhanO Nonborrowers Togo Guineasirsau Liberia Sub-Saharan Africa Eastern Africa Department (AF2) Nigeria Namibia Ethiopia Sao Tome and Principe Reunion Keny Sierra Leone South Africa Naurltiuu Other UWet Africa S tlIe Sahelian Deagrtment CAIS) Sudan Burkina Faso Uganda Cape Verde Chad Gambia, The MaLi Mauritania ligpr Seneral Asia Rsfan (and Ocania) Country Department IV Nonborrowers India Country Department I East and Southeast Asia Banglade Country Department V Srwiei Bhutan Fiji Nong tong Nepal Indonesis Japan Sri Lanka Ki-ibati Korea, Om. People s Rep. of Maldives Macao Country Department 1I Papua New Guinea Mongotia Kaepuchoa Solomon Islands Singapore Korea, lep. of Tonga Taiwan, China Lao Peopltua Dum. Rep. Vanuatu Malaysia Western Samoa Oceania 4yarmar Australia Philippines Fed.States of Micronesia Thailand French Polynesia Viet NM Guam New Caledonia Country Department III New Zealand China (excluding Taiwan) Other Micronesia Other Polynesis INTROOUCTION XXXIII by World Bank Region and Country Department Eurpo, 11ft at gC und NortN Africa CBS) Region (md U.S.S.R.) Eurpe and U.S.S.R. AtIbani a Country Departmnt I Country Department III (cont.) Austria Pakistan Oate. Belgiu* Turkty Saudi Arabia Bulgaria Syria Chmnrwl IsLands Country Department 11 Unitod Arab Emfrates Czechoslovakia AtWr Yremen Arab Rep. Denmark Libya Yemn, Peopl'sr Dem. Rep. of Finlnd Melts Fronce morCCo Country Department IV GCrnwn Dem. Rep. Tunisia Cyprus Germany, Federat Rep. of Hungary Greece Country Department III Poland Icelond Afghanistan Portugal Irealnd 3ehrain Romania itaty Egypt Arab Rep. of Yugoslavia Luxbourg Iran, Islamic Rsp. of Netherlands Nonborrowers Norway "Spin Kuwait North Africa Sweden Lebanon Other North Africa Switzerland omwn United Kingdo Southwest Asia Other Europe Gaza Strip U.S.S.R. Israet West Bank Latin Amricc and the Caribb"n (LAC) Region (and Northern Amrica) Country Department IV Argentina Country Deportment I Com.,try Department III Chile reazil Antigua and Barbuda EcuadKr Bahamas, The Paraguay Country Department I1 Barbados Peru Costa Rica Belize Uruguay Et Salvador Bolivia Guatematc Colombia Nonborrowers Honduras Dominica Mexico Dominican Rep. Latin America and the Caribbean Nicaragua Grenada Cuba Panama Guyana Guadetoupe Haiti Martinique Jamaica Netherlands Antilles Montserrat Virgin Islands (U.S.) St. Kitts and Nevis Other Latin America St. Lucia St. Vincent wnd the Grenadines Northern America Surinaee Canada Trinidad and Tobago Puerto Rico Venezuela United States of America Other Northern America Xxmwv -_ Of t 187 countrie or economie, 49 have low per capita incomes of $545 or las (in 19 U.S. dom). Most of thae countria or economies ae in Sub-Sahaan Africa, South Asia, and Soutemi Aul they aso include the majority of the ten lrgest countries in the world and contain S7 pwsoet of world population. At the other extrewe, high-income countrie or economies, with per capita incomes of $6,000 or more, number 43, and contain 15 percent of world population. At pIea', the lw-Income populations a a group are growing by almost 60 million people a year, while the hig-income populations as a group are growing by only 5 million people a year. By 2025, the currety low-income countries will make up 61 percent of world popuation, with over 5 billion peron. The currently high-income countries will make up 11 percent of world popuation, with 945 million persons. The lower-middle-income economies, with per capita incomes up to $2,200, are u nm a the lw-income countries but have only 15 percent of world population. In this group are cloe to half of the Latin American and Caribbean countries. The upper-middle-income economies, with 6 pecent of world population, have lower fertility and are mostly on the way to sower populaton grwth. Nevertheless, even this group of countries will still grow considerably. Their sadooary populations in the aggregate are expected to be more than double their present poplaion. Some Country Results Countries and economies provide a much more complex demographic mosaic than these regio, and only some highlights of their pic--,4 demographic future wiU be given (see Tables 10- 13). China is now the most populous country or economy, as it has been for some time and will continue to be in these projections until early in the 22nd century, when it will be overtaken by India. Both China and India will have populations of 1.8-1.9 billion persons by 2160. Nigeria, currently the eighth largest country in the world, wil steadily increase in size and by 2160 wil become the tbird lrgest country, overtaking the U.S.S.R., the United Stae, Indonesia, Brazil, and Japan. Nigeria's population in 2160 will be equal to 96 percent of the 1990 population of Africa as a whole. India and China together will be larger than the total 1990 population of Asia by some 610 million persons. Rankings by size among other large countries will be changing well before 2160. Nigeria and Pacistan, in particular, will be moving up, from eighth and ninth today to seventh and eighth by the turn of the century and to fifth and sixth by 2025. The largest countries in the world will experience very different growth rates. China's population will be growing at only 0.9 percent annually between 1990 and 2030. The U.S.S.R., currently the third laest country, will grow at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the same period. In contat, Paksta and Nigeria will grow significantly faster, at 2.5 and 2.6 percent annually in this period, a rts which is nevertheless slower than their current growth rates of 3.1 and 3.2. Growing even faster will be some other countries or economies in a high-growth belt that extends roughly from Nigeria eastward to Pakistan. In this belt, 3 to 14 percent growth rates are expected to continue in countries such as Libya, Niger, and Mali and a cluster of countries around the Gulf of Guinea; in East African countries from Ethiopia and Somalia south to Mozambique; and in Southwest and South Asia except in Afghanistan, Democratic Yemen, and the United Arab mirate. Stading out in this belt of countries are Rwanda and C6te d'Ivoire, growing at 3.9 and 3.7 peren annually; Oman, growing at 3 ) percent annually; and Saudi Arabia, the Yemen Arab RIublic, the Wet Bank, nd Syria, all growing at around 3.6 percent annually. Concern among governmet about such high grwth rates has clearly grown in the last two decades (Box 7). ImmoouaunoN xxxv Gtwmaen Aw svm,Of POPUIAvkr GA7"h: ::::si..g respons,l por peodic U.N. e a dicee.tha man QvwmuWs 5 the 1 Ihn 1*the 1970. comMuted PaPulIdOR grOWtk AS thir counrie b* be t L Otl 160 gO pv_mmu sp , 75 deabe.e couri p is gr im too ldgb, up fom SS a decade Mot of th ontil 'M~I t: Utic view'e bh Sob-Saharan Afica, wbere do masbor cOer*ins POP laton rothtohet o oblimctd tm 13 nl 19n to 20 I 193 ad to 26 in. IM th 29: auty conider elit h ir cout yt be hIh. In Ask, the - opf gpovemmaits rqed populaton Srowth as too hih 1978e IM d aoe 0 hoe c asd t_0sassaft. In the emxain deveopin ooeuim-from to Middle But to Nort Mic the Caribbean an d AsLatin Ac.-goamf mabt qbauy dvde b~vees 'toe high' antftory' wements of** the td of poplatio gr**, wit a :: respodn "to 1.w." Fr more developed coatu *6 maot of governm :t tsp*to ppulllo gowth as sUatlfetoy, bu the natbet toportlag thetIM tbeoooW : dtblid F 121. 1 t2 tle lat *suvy. The lowest growth rates (under 1 percent), generally are in tho nortern hemisphere- Northen America, the U.S.S.R., and Europe. Five countris-the U.S. Virgin Islands, Hungry, the German Democaic Republic, Bulgaria, and St. Kitts and Nevis-ae curently experiencing declining popultons. By 2030, 13 countries will have neptive growth rates, not including Bulgaria and the U.S. Virgi slands, which are projected to regain positive growth. Countries with declining population in 2030 will include Japan, curmntly the seventh largest country in the world, Luxembourg, the Federal Republic of Germany, the Netherlands, the Channel slnds, Greece, Belgium, Ftland, Switzland, Demaruk, and Austria. Rwcent political events in Europe, including mm migrations from east to west, the economic unification of the Germanys and progres toward economic unity in the European Community, are likely to affect the demogrphic future of the region in ways that are still unpredictable. The countries with most rapid growth are also among those with the highest fertility levels (cf. Figures 3 and 7). Total fertility is 8 in Rwanda and the Yemen Arab Republic, and between 7 and 8 in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kenya, Malawi, C8te d'Ivoire and Ethiopia. Over the next decade, the largest declines in fertility are projected for Zimbabwe, Botrswa, Kenya, and Algeria, where total fertility will fall by an average of about 1.4 children. Tunisia and Vietnam will experience almost as large fertility declines. Unlike these countries, Guinea, Afghanistan, The Gambia, Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone are projected to have contant high frtility. Constant fertility, but at low levels, is also projected for The Bahamas, Romania, Puland, the Nethrlands, Guadaloupe, Macao, and Ireland. The country with the lowest current expectation of life at birth, barely 40 years, is Guine-Bisu. Twenty-three other countries have life expectancies under 50 years; all except Afghanistan, the Yemen Arab Republic, and Bhutan are in Sub-Saharan Africa. The longest life expectancy in the Sub-Saharan region, at about 67 years, is in Botswana. Within the region, only the small island countries of Mauritius, Seychelles, and R6union have comparable levels of life e.pectancy. By contmrt, the longest life expectancies, between 78 and 79 year, are in Japan, Iceland, Hong Kong, and Switzerland. No country in Europe has a life expectancy below 70 years, with the lowest being Hungary and RLmania at around 71 years. In Oceania, Kiribti and Papua New Guinea are outLiers, with life expectanies similar to those found in Africa--around 54 years, in xxxm lupoATO oontrt to 76 yr for Austrlia and 74 year for Now Zealand. Concurrent with future changes in fertility and mortality will be changes in dependency acro countries. In Kenya, previous high fertility partly accounts for a ratio as high as 116 dependents por 100 people of working age. Fertility decline will reduce the ratio to 55 by 2025. Singapore already has a low dependency ratio of 41; this will rise to 62 in the next 35 years. Another contrast is provided by India and Switzerland. India's dependency ratio will decrease from 70 to 46 between 1990 and 2025, while Switzerland's ratio will increase from 47 to 71. Conclusion The world population in 1990 is growing at about the same rate as in 1975. But there are some 1.2 billion more people now, and the number of people added each year is greater now than ever before. Between 1975 and 1990, an average of 80 million people were addee .o world population every year. Between 1990 and 2000, an average of 91 million people will be added to world population every year. This annual increase in world population projected for this decade will exceed the current population of Mexico, the world's eleventh largest country. The total increase for the decade as a whole will exceed the current population of India. India itself will be the leading contributor to these increases. Asia as a whole, in fact, will be responsible for more than half the annual increase--SS million more people will be added every year on this continent. More than half the annual increase in Asia, in turn, will be due to the combined increases in India (15.7 million annually) and China (15.3 million annually). Every year of the decade, the Asian population will add to itself the equivalent of the current population of Thailand. The African continent has only a fifth of the population of Asia, but its annual increase in this decade will be disproportionately large: 22 million people, or almost as many people added every year as now live in Kenya. The annual increase in the Americas will be half that in Africa, or roughly equivalent to the current populations of Ecuador or Cuba. As elsewhere, the increases in this region will be unevenly distributed, and some countries, where the average woman still has more than four children, will experience growth more typical of other regions. The annual increase in Europe and the U.S.S.R. will not be entirely insignificant either, adding up to roughly the population of Albania. Two-thirds of the increase in world population in this decade will come in low-income countries. High-income and upper-middle-income countries combined will account for only 12 percent of the decadal increase. These large increases are projected despite expected moderation in population growth rates. For 1990-2000, the annual rates of growth in Asia, the Araericas, and Oceania will each be close to 1.5 percent, lower than the respective growth rates for 1975-90 (though only marginally so for Oceania). For Europe and the U.S.S.R., the growth rate will be 0.4 percent annually, also lower than previously. Only for Africa is the growth rate for the decade, at close to 3 percent, expected to be slightly higher than it was in 1975-90. In the first quarter of the next century, growth rates will fall further. Even in Africa, the annual rate will decline to 2.5 percent. Nevertheless, annual increments to world population will remain at roughly the same levels: about 91 million people added annually. The difference in growth rates between Africa and the rest of the world will have significant effects. The African population, INTROOUCTION XXXVII now saller tha tht of the Americas nr Europe, will be larger than them by 2000, will surpass one billion by 2006, and will reach two billion by 2038. How likely, in fact, are the projected increases? For this decade, the size of the increases depends largely on the expanding base of the population, and there can be little doubt about the rough magnitudes. For the next century, the projections depend on guesses about future fertility and mortality. Continued fertility decline is assumed in these projections, and for some countries, fertility decline is expected to begin--and to progress at a good pace--even though no evidence for this is visible to date. If this decline does not take place, or is retarded because of slower socioeconomic development and limited access to fertility regulation, these projections will turn out, if anything, to understate future population growth. The one possible counterbalancing factor is that the projections for some developed countries do assume an eventual rebound from below-replacement fertility, evidence for which is also limited so far. If this does not happen, their populations could be slightly smaller, but the effect on world population will be small. If there is one area of considerable uncertainty in these projections, it concerns the future course of mortality. Continued improvements in life expectancy are assumed, following trends in many countries over the past decades. However, the possibility of catastrophic mortality events always exists. We refer not to localized famines and similar disasters, or even to major wars, which tend to have temporary and relatively limited effects on total population, whatever effects they may have on particular social groups. Rather we refer to even more apocalyptic events, on the scale of a major nuclear exchange, a wide-reaching environmental catastrophe, or an unchecked and extensive plague. Mass mortality could upset the projections, but whether this will happen is quite uncertain. Consider, for instance, the possible impact of the Autoimmune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) epidemic on population (abstracting from its other health and economic impacts). The impact on population numbers in the developed countries is minor. For Sub-Saharan Africa, the impact in this decade will also be minor, given the long latency of the infection. Sometime in the next century, some undetermined effect on population numbers in specific countries may become visible. This effect may be minor, as some models suggest, or slightly larger, but negative population growth is quite unlikely. And this effect will depend to an mportant extent on measures that are taken now and on changes in individual behavior that are not possible to predict. One important point about these projections, therefore, is the way they rest on predictions about individual and institutional behavior. For instance, they implicitly assume that efforts to moderate growth will not only continue but expand to cover areas of the world where population growth now appears largely unchecked. Maintaining the growth path indicated by these projections, and not exceeding it, will therefore require considerable effort from many quarters. Whether even more reduction in growth can be achieved is uncertain, but if so, it would certainly require considerable human commitment, resources, and ingenuity. X1XXI INThOOUCT)O TOM I Poputatin and Pircentae Distribution by Geographic Region, 19M-2100 Population (millions) Percentage of world population Region or incoe group 195 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 1965 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 World 4842 5282 6192 8479 10319 12036 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Leos developed (a) 3665 4071 4919 7099 8921 10633 75.7 77.1 79.4 63.7 86.5 88.3 More deseloped (a) 1177 1211 1273 1380 1398 1404 24.3 22.9 20.6 16.3 13.5 11.7 Africa 556 646 865 1603 2369 3251 11.5 12.2 14.0 18.9 23.0 27.0 East Africa 230 269 364 701 1078 1533 4.8 5.1 5.9 8.3 10.5 12.7 West Africa 202 237 320 619 925 1283 4.2 4.5 5.2 7.3 9.0 10.7 North Africa 123 141 180 282 366 435 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.6 America 668 723 829 1058 1193 1274 13.8 13.7 13.4 12.5 11.6 10.6 Latin Aoerica and Caribbean 400 443 527 714 845 925 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.2 7.7 Northern Anerica 268 280 302 344 348 349 5.5 5.3 4.9 4.1 3.4 2.9 Arsi 2825 3099 3648 4902 5817 6561 58.3 58.7 58.9 57.8 56.4 54.5 East nd Southeast Asia 1652 1781 2034 2531 2818 2981 34.1 33.7 32.8 29.8 27.3 24.8 South Asia 1058 1187 1442 2080 2597 3062 21.9 22.5 23.3 24.5 25.2 25.4 Southwest Asia 115 132 173 292 402 517 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.4 3.9 4.3 Europe nd U.S.S.R. 769 787 819 878 897 906 15.9 14.9 13.2 10.4 8.7 7.5 Oceania 25 27 31 39 43 45 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 a. '%ore developoe comprises Euro e, the U.S.S.R., Northern Americs (the United States and Canada), Australia, Now Zealand, and Japan. "Lesti developed" coNprises ths rest of the wortl. Tb1e 2 AP-ual Population Increase and Growth Rate by Geographic Region, 1985-2100 Amiusl population increase (millions) Anmual growth rate (percent) Region or income group 1985-90 2000-05 2025-30 2050-75 2100-Z5 1985-90 2000-05 2025-30 2050-75 2100-25 WorLd 87.9 92.0 87.5 44.6 12.' 1.74 1.43 1.01 0.41 0.10 Less developed (), 81.1 86.3 85.0 44.9 11.6 2.10 1.68 1.16 0.47 0.11 More devetoped (a) 6.8 5.7 2.5 -3.2 0.4 0.57 0.44 0.18 -0.02 0.03 Africa 18.1 26.0 33.0 22.7 5.5 3.01 2.80 1.96 0.86 0.17 East Africe 7.7 11.5 15.9 11.5 2.8 3.09 2.92 2.14 0.94 0.18 West Africa 6.9 10.4 13.3 9.3 2.3 3.15 3.00 2.04 0.89 0.17 North Africa 3.5 4.2 3.8 2.0 0.4 2.64 2.19 1.30 0.51 0.09 America 11.0 9.8 7.3 2.2 0.6 1.58 1.14 0.67 0.18 0.05 Latin Amrica and Caribbean 8.5 7.8 6.4 2.3 0.5 2.03 1.43 0.88 0.26 0.06 horthern America 2.5 2.0 0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.90 0.64 0.25 -0.02 0.02 Asia 54.9 52.7 45.3 19.6 5.5 1.86 1.40 0.90 0.32 0.08 East nd Southeeat Asia 25.8 22.3 16.6 4.2 1.5 1.50 1.07 0.64 0.15 0.05 South Asia 25.7 26.1 23.8 12.3 3.5 2.29 1.73 1.11 0.45 0.11 Southwest Asia 3.5 4.4 4.9 3.1 0.5 2.85 2.39 1.61 0.71 0.10 Europe and U.S.S.R. 3.5 3.1 1.7 0.0 0.3 0.45 0.37 0.20 0.00 0.03 Oceania 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.57 1.19 0.59 0.14 0.05 a. "Nore developed cor"ises Europe, the U.S.S.R., Northern Awrica (the United States and Canada), Austratia, New Zealand, and Jn. "Leo.s developed" comprises the rest of the world. T11e 3 FertiLity wnd Nortality Rates by Geographic Region, 1965-90, 2000-OS, nd 2025-30 1985-90 2000-05 2025-30 Region or income group COR TFR CDR e(O) IUR CUR TFR CDR eCO) IRE CBP TFR CDR e(O) lUS World 27.1 3.41 9.7 64.9 7U 22.3 2.89 8.0 69.0 49 17.5 2.40 7.4 74.6 24 Less developed (a) 30.9 3.89 9.7 62.0 78 24.7 3.11 7.8 66.7 54 18.6 2.45 6.9 73.2 26 Nore developed (a) 14.7 1.90 9.6 74.2 15 12.8 1.89 8.8 77.9 9 11.9 2.06 10.1 81.7 4 Africa 44.7 6.22 14.5 53.1 105 38.3 5.14 10.3 58.9 74 26.0 3.11 6.5 67.4 45 East Africa 46.3 6.43 15.3 52.2 107 40.2 5.49 10.9 57.6 77 28.1 3.36 6.6 66.3 49 West Africa 47.7 6.63 16.3 49.8 112 41.5 5.63 11.5 56.2 78 27.0 3.18 6.6 65.8 48 North Africa 36.7 5.14 10.1 60.2 84 28.9 3.67 6.9 66.7 52 18.7 2.30 5.7 73.8 19 America 23.4 2.84 7.9 70.3 44 1 .8 2.28 6.6 74.2 27 14.1 2.06 7.3 79.1 7 Latin America and Caribbean 28.5 3.56 7.3 66.8 55 20.6 2.45 5.8 71.6 34 15.1 2.09 6.4 77.5 8 Northern Aerice 15.4 1.87 8.7 75.7 10 12.8 1.90 8.0 78.8 6 11.9 2.06 9.4 82.3 3 Asia 27.6 3.43 8.9 63.8 71 21.5 2.71 7.5 68.4 47 16.4 2.24 7.3 74.8 18 East and Southeast Asia 22.2 2.61 7.0 66.4 39 17.3 2.17 6.6 72.7 21 14.0 2.06 7.6 75.3 7 South Asia 34.9 4.66 11.9 56.8 102 26.2 3.32 8.8 62.6 71 18.4 2.34 7.3 70.7 29 Southwest Asia 36.7 5.11 8.8 63.5 72 30.2 3.99 6.4 68.4 46 21.4 7.70 5.2 74.9 17 Europe nd U.S.S.R. 14.9 1.97 10.5 72.9 18 13.0 1.91 9.2 77.0 11 12.1 2.06 10.7 81.1 4 Oceania 19.4 2.46 7.9 72.1 28 17.1 2.31 7.4 75.2 17 14.0 2.11 8.1 79.3 12 Note: Crude birth rates (CBR) and crude death rates (CDR) are per 1000 population; total fertility rates (TFR) are per Women 15-49 years of age; life expectancy at birth, e(O), is given in years; and infant morwlity rates (IRE) are per 1000 live births. a. *Nore developedr corises Europe. the U.S.S.R., Northern America (the Uknit.d States and Canada), Australia, Nem Zealand, nd Japan. Less developed" comprises the rest of the world. xL iNmmoOucnow TcIte4 Population Age 0-14, 15-64, nd 65 and Over for ths World, Lees Developed nd More Developed Countries, nd ajor Geographic Regions, 1985, 2000, nd 2025 Year *nd Less More Europe, age group World developed developed Africa America Asia U.S.S.R. Oceania 1990 0-14 1714 1455 259 294 220 1023 171 7 15-64 3242 2436 806 333 449 1922 521 17 65. 326 180 140 20 54 155 95 2 2000 0-14 1918 1667 251 382 229 1135 164 8 15-64 3850 3007 842 456 535 2301 538 20 65+ 424 245 179 26 66 212 117 3 2025 0-14 2156 1909 247 577 228 1183 160 8 15-64 5475 4627 848 965 689 3253 544 25 65+ 848 564 285 62 140 467 174 6 Note: "More developed" comprises Europe, the U.S.S.R., l4orthern America (the United States and Canada), Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. "Less developed" comprises the rest of the world. Tablo 5 Long-Run nd Stationary Population, Momentum, Doubling Yeur, and Year When Net Reproduction Rate Reaches 1 by Ceographic Region Population (millions) Stationary Year population When over popula- Year Region or Station- 1990 Population tion when incom group 1990 2050 2100 ary population momnntum doubles WRRx1 World 5282 10318 12036 12537 2.4 1.4 2054 2060 Less developed (a) 4071 8920 10633 11115 2.7 1.5 2038 2060 More developed (a) 1211 1398 1404 422 1.2 1.1 (b) 2030 Africa 646 2369 3251 3481 5.4 1.6 2015 2060 East Africa 269 1078 1533 1649 6.1 1.5 2014 2055 West Africa 237 925 1283 1379 5.8 1.5 2014 2060 North Africa 141 366 435 452 3.2 1.6 2025 2050 America 723 1193 1273 1300 1.8 1.4 (b) 2030 Latin America and Caribbean 443 845 924 947 2.1 1.6 2064 2030 Northern America 280 348 349 353 1.3 1.1 (b) 2030 Asia 3099 5817 6561 6791 2.2 1.4 2068 205S East and Southeast Asia 1781 2818 2981 3046 1.7 1.4 (b) 2U.5 South Asia 1187 2597 3062 3208 2.7 1.5 2038 2055 Southwest Asia 132 402 517 537 4.1 1.6 2020 2055 Europe and U.S.S.R. 787 897 906 919 1.2 1.1 (b) 2030 Oceania 27 43 45 46 1.7 1.3 (b) 2040 a. "More developed" comprises Europe, the U.S.S.R., Northern America (the United States and Canada), Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. "Less developed" comprises the rest of the world. b. Population will not double with projected rates. INTAOUCnTION XU Teb4 6 Population nd Percentog Distribution by World Bank Region, Country Departmnt, and Incom Group, 1985-2100 Population (miltions) Percentage of world populetion R"lion and country department 1985 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 1985 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 World 4842 5282 6192 8479 10319 12036 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Borrowers and rncnborrowers sub-Saharan Africa 454 530 717 1378 2082 2917 9.4 10.0 11.6 16.3 20.2 24.2 Asia and Oconia 2576 2808 3255 4183 478 5199 53.2 53.2 52.6 49.3 46.4 43.2 Europe, Middle Eeat, and Worth Africa 1144 1221 1390 1860 2256 2647 23.6 23.1 22.5 21.9 21.9 22.0 Americs 668 723 829 1058 1193 1274 13.8 13.7 13.4 12.5 11.6 10.6 Borrowers only Africa Regifn 421 492 670 1309 1996 2817 8.7 9.3 10.8 15.4 19.3 23.4 1 Occidental and Central 38 45 61 123 188 265 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2 Eastern 106 124 171 345 549 802 2.2 2.4 2.8 4.1 5.3 6.7 3 South-Central wnd Indian Ocean 52 61 31 152 223 304 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.5 4 Westerm 119 140 189 356 511 683 2.5 2.6 3.1 4.2 5.0 5.7 5 Sahelian 36 42 56 114 183 272 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.3 6 Southern 69 81 111 220 342 492 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.6 3.3 4.1 Ac/s Region 2386 2610 3043 3949 4552 4966 49.3 49.4 49.1 46.6 44.1 41.3 1 Other South 134 151 184 263 323 375 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 2 Southeast 272 300 356 477 562 614 5.6 5.7 i.8 5.6 5.4 5.1 3 China 1045 1122 1275 1566 1721 1804 21.6 21.2 20.6 18.5 16.7 15.0 4 India 765 850 1007 1350 1604 1798 15.8 16.1 16.3 15.9 15.5 14.9 5 Inboes ia end Pacific 170 187 220 292 343 376 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.3 3. EMI Region 473 534 675 1092 1471 1854 9.8 10.1 10.9 12.9 14.3 15.4 1 Pakistan and Turkey 146 170 222 376 512 648 3.0 3.2 3.6 4.4 5.0 5.4 2 North Africa 55 63 U 128 166 197 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 3 Middle East 167 194 259 466 665 878 3.4 3.7 4.2 5.5 6.4 7.3 4 Europe 105 107 112 122 128 132 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.1 LAC Region 389 431 514 699 829 908 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.5 1 Brazil 136 150 178 236 274 297 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2 Centrat America 104 116 142 201 246 272 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 3 Caribbeon and Other 72 80 9 131 157 174 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 4 Teperate anid Tropical 78 85 W 130 152 166 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 Income group Low 2711 3003 3611 5178 649 7784 56.0 56.9 58.3 61.1 63.0 64.7 Lower-middlq 695 775 941 1357 1694 1973 14.3 14.7 15.2 16.0 16.4 16.4 Upper-middle 295 523 385 549 684 805 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.6 6.7 High 787 814 863 945 956 966 16.3 15.4 13.9 11.1 9.3 8.0 Yonreporting noimaembr 354 367 392 450 485 507 7.3 6.9 6.3 5.3 4.7 4.2 Note: Income groups are defined in Box 6. World lank regions and country departments are defined in Box 5. XLN INTmomUCO T&te 7 Amuei Popuiation Introe- end Growth Rote by World Mank Negion, Coumtry Department, cn Incoms Group 190S-2100 Rgnnual population increse CailLions) Annul growth rate (percent) Region *nd_ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ country dprtment 1965-90 2000 2025 2050 2100 1985-90 2000 2025 2050 2100 World 87.9 92.0 87.5 44.6 12.0 1.74 1.43 1.01 0.41 0.10 Borrowrs and nan-borrow re Sub-Sshoren Africa 15.2 22.7 30.1 21.3 5.3 3.10 2.94 2.07 0.91 0.16 Asia nd Ocania 46.3 41.2 31.6 10.7 3.8 1.7 1.23 0.74 0.22 0.07 Europa, iddlt East, and North Africa 15.4 18.3 16.5 10.4 2.3 1.30 1.27 0.97 0.44 0.06 Aerics 11.0 9.8 7.3 2.2 0.6 1.58 1.14 0.67 0.16 0.05 Borrowers only Africa Region 14.3 21.6 29.3 21.0 5.2 3.14 3.01 2.12 0.93 0.18 1 Occidental nd Central 1.4 2.1 2.8 2.0 0.4 3.37 3.11 2.16 0.94 0.16 2 Easten 3.6 5.7 8.4 6.3 1.6 3.13 3.11 2.31 1.01 0.20 3 South-Contral nd IndIan Ocoen 1.7 2.5 3.0 2.1 0.5 3.11 2.65 1.91 0.85 0.17 4 Western 4.2 6.0 6.9 4.5 1.1 3.21 2.94 1.86 0.80 0.16 5 Sahelian 1.1 1.9 2.9 2.2 0.6 2.80 3.06 2.39 1.06 0.22 6 Southen 2.3 3.6 5.2 3.8 0.9 3.09 3.03 2.25 0.97 0.18 Asia Region 44.6 39.9 31.3 10.6 3.8 1.79 1.27 0.73 0.23 0.06 1 Other South 3.2 3.4 2.8 1.3 0.5 2.28 1.79 1.04 0.39 0.13 2 Southeast 5.6 5.2 4.3 1.4 0.4 1.96 1.42 0.88 0.25 0.07 3 Chine 15.5 13.1 9.7 2.1 0.8 1.43 1.00 0.61 0.12 0.04 4 IndIa 16.9 15.1 12.0 5.2 1.8 2.10 1.4" 0.87 0.31 0.10 5 Indones end Pecific 3.5 3.0 2.5 0.9 0.3 1.97 1.32 0.83 0.24 0.07 ENN R"ion 12.2 15.5 17.0 10.4 2.0 2.43 2.18 1.50 0.65 0.11 I Pakistan and Turkey 4.7 5.7 6.2 3.7 0.8 2.97 2.40 1.57 0.66 0.12 2 North Africa 1.6 1.9 1.8 0.9 0.2 2.71 2.17 1.34 0.50 0.08 3 Middle East 5.4 7.5 8.7 5.7 1.0 3.02 2.70 1.78 0.78 0.12 4 Europe 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.46 0.45 0.28 0.06 0.04 LAC Rfgion 8.4 7.7 6.3 2.3 0.5 2.06 1.44 0.89 0.26 0.06 1 razil 2.9 2.4 1.9 0.6 0.2 2.05 1.32 0.78 0.22 0.06 2 Central Amerieo 2.5 2.4 2.1 0.8 0.1 2.26 1.65 1.03 0.31 0.05 3 Caribbean nd Other 1.6 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.09 1.51 0.93 0.29 0.07 4 Teperete and Tropical 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 1.76 1.31 0.80 0.25 0.06 Income group Low 58.3 61.9 61.7 33.2 9.3 2.04 1.64 1.16 0.48 0.12 Lower-middle 16.1 16.6 15.7 7.6 1.7 2.19 1.69 1.13 0.43 0.08 Upper-middlo 5.6 6.5 6.3 3.4 0.6 1.81 1.63 1.12 0.46 0.07 High 5.4 4.2 1.8 -0.1 0.3 0.67 0.49 0.19 -0.01 0.03 Nonreporting normnb r 2.6 2.7 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.71 0.67 0.42 0.11 0.04 Note: Income group are def In d in ox 6. World Bank resions and country departments are defIned in Box 5. INTRODUCTION XLII Table I Fortility ond Nortlaity Rates by Uortd lank egNion, Country Department, and Ircom Group, 1985-90, 2000-05, and 202540 198S-90 2000-05 2020-25 Roofan nd country dortment ClR TFI CDR .40) IMR Cli TFR CDR SCO) I[R CUR TFR CMR 0(O) ItR World 27.1 3.41 9.7 64.9 70 22.3 2.89 8.0 69.0 49 17.5 2.40 7.4 74.6 24 Borrowers and non-borrowers Sub-Aharon Africa 46.8 6.52 15.8 51.0 109 40.7 5.54 11.2 56.8 78 27.4 3.26 6.7 66.0 4 Asia nd Oceania 26.0 3.18 8.7 64.4 67 19.7 2.47 7.4 69.1 42 15.1 2.11 7.6 75.5 1 Europe, Middle loot and North Africa 23.5 3.13 10.5 68.4 60 21.2 2.97 8.5 72.0 44 17.4 2.45 7.7 76.5 11 America 23.4 2.84 7.9 70.3 44 .7.8 2.28 6.6 74.2 27 14.1 2.08 7.3 79.1 lorrowers only Africa Reion 47.7 6.70 16.2 50.3 111 41.7 5.71 11.5 56.1 79 27.9 3.32 6.7 65.5 1 Occidental nd Contral 47.6 6.66 15.4 51.8 106 41.8 5.82 10.9 57.5 72 27.7 3.32 6.1 67.0 2 Eastern 48.5 7.05 16.8 S0.2 114 42.9 6.03 11.7 55.6 81 29.8 3.59 6.7 65.0 3 South-Central aid Indian Ocoen 46.2 6.38 15.1 51.0 103 39.5 5.35 11.0 56.3 70 25.7 3.02 6.6 65.9 L 4 western 47.7 6.65 15.5 50.5 106 40.1 5.31 10.7 57.2 71 24.9 2.88 6.3 66.7 5 Sahetlin 47.9 6.61 18.8 46.6 132 45.1 6.37 14.1 52.3 101 31.7 3.86 7.8 62.3 6 Southern 47.3 6.58 16.3 50.4 116 42.4 5.81 12.1 55.8 8T 29.6 3.58 7.0 64.9 5 Asia Refion 27.0 3.29 8.9 63.5 69 20.2 2.50 7.4 68.4 *4 15.3 2.11 7.5 75.1 1 1 Other South 36.9 4.96 13.6 53.0 114 28.6 3.44 10.4 57.7 84 18.4 2.26 8.0 66.9 4 2 Southoeat 28.0 3.42 7.8 64.4 49 20.7 2.45 6.2 69.6 28 15.4 2.10 6.5 76.2 1 3 China 21.0 2.40 6.6 69.5 32 16.6 2.11 6.5 73.3 18 13.7 2.08 7.7 78.9 4 India 32.4 4.26 11.4 57.8 99 23.0 2.88 8.5 63.9 65 16.4 2.12 7.6 71.9 2 S Indone sa nd Paciffc 28.9 3.54 9.1 60.1 71 20.1 2.32 6.9 67.9 34 15.3 2.10 7.0 75.1 1 EIN Region 34.8 4.78 10.5 62.0 84 29.6 3.97 7.7 66.7 58 21.0 2.65 6.0 73.2 2 1 Pakistan nd Turkey 41.3 5.64 11.3 57.9 101 31.9 4.32 7.9 63.3 69 21.5 2.64 5.7 71.2 2 2 North Africa 35.7 5.12 8.6 62.8 72 27.4 3.40 5.7 68.9 42 18.4 2.26 5.0 75.8 1 3 Middle East 40.5 5.78 10.5 59.8 86 34.5 4.68 7.6 65.5 61 23.4 2.89 5.5 72.5 2 4 !urope 15.0 2.04 10.1 71.5 21 14.2 2.01 9.4 75.0 12 12.7 2.08 9.9 80.0 LAC Region 28.8 3.61 7.3 66.5 56 20.7 2.46 5.8 71.4 35 15.2 2.09 6.3 77.4 1 Brazil 28.4 3.46 7.9 64.9 63 19.0 2.26 5.8 71.1 37 14.7 2.08 6.8 77.3 2 Contral Amrica 30.8 3.91 6.2 68.0 50 22.4 2.60 4.8 72.3 29 15.7 2.09 5.4 78.1 3 Caribbean and Other 29.7 3.69 7.1 66.1 57 22.0 2.61 6.1 69.9 40 15.6 2.11 6.3 76.2 1 4 Temperate and Tropical 26.0 3.40 8.1 67.8 52 20.0 2.47 6.8 71.8 33 15.0 2.08 6.9 77.6 Income group Low 30.8 3.89 10.2 61.1 84 25.2 3.18 8.5 6S.3 58 20.1 2.58 8.2 68.5 4 Lower-middle 31.5 4.05 8.4 64.0 63 24.5 3.00 6.7 68.1 38 19.2 2.41 6.9 71.0 2 Upper-middle 26.7 3.39 8.1 67.3 53 21.6 2.73 6.9 70.9 32 18.0 2.39 7.5 73.0 2 Hifk 13.9 1.79 9.4 76.1 12 12.7 1.90 9.6 77.5 10 12.6 2.10 11.6 77.9 Nonreporting nono ber 19.6 2.52 10.6 69.1 32 16.4 2.28 9.9 72.1 24 15.3 2.22 10.2 73.8 2 Note: Crude birth rates (CMR) nd crude death rates (CDR) are per 1,000 population; total fertility rates (TFR) are per woman 15-49 years of age; life expectncy at birth, 5(0), is given in years; and infant mortality rates (INR) are per 1,000 live births. (Sea definitions in World 8ank 1988.) Income groups are defined in Box 6. World lank regions and country departm_nts are deffned in lox 5. xuv INTROOUCTI4 TI 9 Logrtm mi 3taticnary Population, Doubling Yere, nd Year WIhen Net Reproduction late Reaches I by World an Region, Country Departmnt and Incom Group Population (millions) Stationary Year population wihn R"ion nd over popu- Year country Station- 1990 PopuLation lation when department 1990 2050 2100 cry population uoentum doubles HRR-1 World total 5282 10318 12036 12537 2.4 1.4 2054 2060 Borroers and non-borrowrs Sub-Sharan Africa 5 2082 2917 3137 5.9 1.5 2014 2060 Asia nd Ocenis 280d 4788 5199 5360 1.9 1.4 (r) 2030 Eurpe, Middlo Eost, and North Africa 1221 2256 2647 2741 2.2 1.3 2066 2055 Armpe 723 1193 1274 1300 1.8 1.4 (C) 2030 Borrowrs only Africa egion 493 1996 2818 3033 6.2 1.5 2013 2060 1 Occiental ad Central 45 188 265 283 6.3 1.6 2013 2055 2 Eastern 124 549 802 868 7.0 1.5 2012 2060 3 South-Central ad Indian Ocen 61 223 304 326 5.3 1.5 2n13 2060 4 Western 140 511 683 729 5.2 1.6 2013 2055 5 Sahelan 42 183 272 297 7.1 1.5 2014 2060 6 Southern 81 342 492 530 6.5 1.4 2013 2055 Asia Region 2610 4553 4967 5131 2.0 1.4 (a) 2035 1 Othor South 151 323 375 397 2.6 1.5 2039 2035 2 Southeat 300 562 614 631 2.1 1.5 2080 2030 3 China 1122 1721 1804 1839 1.6 1.4 (a) 2000 4 India 850 1604 1798 1876 2.2 1.4 2065 2015 S Indonns and Pacific 187 343 376 388 2.1 1.5 2095 2035 ENN legion 534 1471 1855 1937 3.6 1.5 2023 2055 1 Pakistan ad Turkey 170 512 648 679 4.0 1.6 2018 2040 2 North Africa 63 166 197 203 3.2 1.7 2024 2050 3 Middlo East 194 665 878 921 4.7 1.6 2018 2055 4 Europe 107 128 132 134 1.3 1.1 (a) 2030 LAC Region 431 829 909 931 2.2 1.6 2062 2030 1 Brazil 150 274 297 304 2.0 1.5 2126 2005 2 Central Amrica 116 246 272 278 2.4 1.7 2040 2030 3 Caribbean and Other s0 157 174 179 2.2 1.6 2058 2030 4 Teqwrate and Tropical 85 152 166 170 2.0 1.5 2160 2025 incoe group Low 3003 6499 7784 8172 2.7 1.4 2039 2060 Lower-middle 77m 1694 1973 2043 2.6 1.6 2038 20<5 Upper-middle 323 684 805 28 2.6 1.4 2042 20 J High 814 956 966 978 1.2 1.1 (a) 2045 Nonreporting noeaweer 367 485 507 516 1.4 1.2 (a) 2030 Note: Incn groups are defined In Box 6. World Bank reions and country departments are definrd In Box 5. (a) Population will not double with projected rates. INTrooucToN xLv T lt 10 Peputltion Projections for Alt Countries and Econoies, 1985-2025 (thousands) Country or econ y 1965 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 WorLd 4,842,303 5,281,929 5,735,527 6,191,710 6,651,503 7,109,156 7,567,055 8,026,087 8,479,143 Africa 555,811 646,073 748,173 864,598 994,593 1,135,176 1,284,856 1,441,089 1,602,864 East Africa 230,286 268,723 312,978 364,079 421,409 484,228 552,294 624,722 701,369 gotawan 1,070 1,254 1,41 1,615 1,799 1,984 2,157 2,324 2,489 Burundi 4,696 5,461 6,363 7,431 8,605 9,921 11,392 12,986 14,635 Comoros 395 477 565 665 778 905 1,045 1,191 1,338 Djibouti 354 428 502 585 678 778 885 995 1,106 Ethiopia 43,350 50,461 59,113 70,132 83,010 97,912 115,037 134,467 156,060 Kenya 20,096 24,133 28,599 33,679 39,344 45,274 51,090 56,364 61,810 Lesotho 1,545 1,771 2,016 2,278 2,561 2,857 3,154 3,us 3,720 Madagascar 9,985 11,503 13,098 14,850 16,762 18,768 20,763 22,680 24,475 malawi 7,188 8,504 10,126 12,070 14,251 16,741 19,606 22,871 26,498 Mauritius 1,020 1,074 1,119 1,162 1,206 1,249 1,289 1,323 1,353 Mozmabique 13,791 15,788 18,398 21,367 24,M 28,475 32,509 36,854 41,401 MNmibia 1,143 1,342 1,554 1,792 2,057 2,340 2,628 2,906 3,163 Rdunion 547 593 639 683 727 769 8O 846 882 R,'nda 6,026 7,146 8,662 10,337 12,242 14,43 17.017 19,967 23,231 Seychelles 66 69 73 77 8l 85 89 94 99 Sot fa 5,384 6,284 7,286 8,510 9,880 11,403 13,088 14,929 16,892 South Africa 31,569 35,921 40,353 44,837 49,293 53,615 57,769 61,567 65,247 Swaziland 664 789 923 1,077 1,252 1,443 1,641 1,837 2,027 Tanzania 21,161 24,869 29,362 34,794 40,859 47,640 55s233 63,649 72,m Uganda 14,680 17,358 20,663 24,390 28,627 33,420 38,829 44,793 51,148 Zaire 30,398 35,565 41,133 47,497 54,788 62,581 70,740 79,047 87,235 Zbia 6,753 8,126 9,666 11,451 13,546 15,885 18,464 21,235 24,131 Zimsabwe 8,406 9,809 11.325 12,800 14,294 15,739 17,060 18,351 19,655 West Africa 202,094 236,516 274,997 320,053 371,842 428,579 489,539 553,630 619,428 Angola 8,754 10,011 11,545 13,505 15,755 18,213 20,921 23,906 27,142 Benin 4,043 4,741 5,486 6,318 7,248 8,253 9,294 10,323 11,325 Burkina Faso 7,888 9,024 10,393 12,062 13,907 15,949 18,191 20,618 23,164 Camroon 10,166 11,941 13,911 16,282 19,159 22,382 25,878 29,568 33,382 Cap Verde 334 378 436 496 557 617 680 746 808 CentraL Africwn Rep. 2,646 3,036 3,451 3,925 4,462 5,022 5,602 6,195 6,783 Chad 5,018 5,679 6,456 7,414 8,487 9,643 10,894 12,233 13,627 Congo, Peoples Rep. of the 1,938 2,277 2,674 3,159 3,750 4,409 5,139 5,941 6,806 C6te d'Ivoire 9,933 12,233 14,715 17,561 20,842 24,49 28,516 32,882 37,533 Equatoriat Guine 315 352 394 443 495 549 605 662 718 Gabon 997 1,135 1,295 1,487 1,721 1,975 2,257 2,568 2,904 Gambia, The 748 875 1,012 1,166 1,344 1,539 1,753 1,987 2,240 Ghana 12,620 14,870 17,258 19,899 22,804 25,920 29,156 32,373 35,528 Guine 4,987 5,697 6,456 7,340 8,413 9,596 10,909 12,349 13,895 Guinea-Bissau U86 981 1,088 1,217 1,371 1,536 1,712 1,898 2,091 Liberia 2,199 2,543 2,920 3,345 3,823 4,337 4,870 5,398 5,912 Mali 7,389 8,461 9,m 11,427 13,339 15,527 18,008 20,785 23,827 Mauritania 1,766 2,003 2,286 2,638 3,074 3,553 4,084 4,671 5,311 Niger 6,593 7,704 9,014 10,649 12,715 15,051 17,707 20,736 24,176 Nigeria 9,669 117,229 136,619 158,971 184,492 212,261 241,605 271,713 301,660 SaG Tomi ad Principe 108 124 141 159 178 197 217 235 252 Senegal 6,395 7,433 8,693 10,229 11,930 13,809 15,881 18,143 20,538 Sierra Leone 3,657 4,145 4,69 5,372 6,196 7,093 8,074 9,144 10,297 Togo 3,038 3,638 4,275 4,982 5,771 6,641 7,578 8,544 9,498 Other West Africa (a) 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 North Africa 123,430 140,834 160,198 180,466 201,342 222,369 243,023 262,737 282,067 Algeric 21,848 25,174 29,183 33,359 37,463 41,462 45,244 48,732 52,171 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 46,497 52,621 59,011 65,664 72,588 79,449 85,898 91,648 97,139 Libya 3,786 4,546 5,450 6,492 7,693 9,052 10,570 12,236 14,026 Morocco 22,061 25,076 28,430 3,784 35,015 38,198 41,267 44,140 46,949 XLM bWYOSCIION TIe 16 (Centiruml) Country or *eonmo 195 1990 595 2000 2005 2010 201S 2020 2025 sudn 21,622 25,065 28,749 32,J25 37,345 42,166 47,194 52,267 57,255 Tunisia 7,261 8,174 9,169 10,106 10,967 11,737 12,504 13,305 14,097 Other North Africa (a) 15S 179 207 237 270 307 347 389 431 America 66,055 723,006 777,561 629,079 877,909 92S,092 971,776 1,016,694 1,057,762 Latin An ric and Caribben 400,015 442,670 46,651 527,030 5S6,011 604,103 642,225 679,399 714,215 Antiguwnd 5 rbuda 76 79 65 91 96 104 110 115 119 Argntina 30,331 32,293 34,096 35,620 37,444 39,095 40,726 42,296 43,76' Oams The 232 249 267 267 307 326 342 357 372 Berbedos 253 256 260 262 26S 26 272 275 280 Sell:e 166 169 217 247 277 305 331 356 382 Bolivit 6,371 7.310 8,371 9,510 10,731 12,007 13,300 14,570 1S,771 iraglt 135,564 150,197 164,609 177,932 190,067 201,951 214,017 225.662 236,353 Chilt 12.121 13,166 14,116 14,946 15,733 16,S39 17,355 16,131 16,631 Colobla 29,879 32,607 35,667 36,152 40,6S0 43,266 45,M5 46,278 50,469 Costs tica 2,489 2,807 3,106 3,377 3,623 3,867 4.117 4.360 4,583 Cubs 10,090 10,637 11,209 11,716 12,190 12,586 12,953 13,309 13,629 Dominic. sO 82 67 91 96 102 106 113 116 Dominican Rep. 6,416 7,140 7,641 6,506 9.139 9,716 10,291 10, 79 11,454 Ecumdor 9,317 10,550 11,652 13,135 14,403 1S,605 16,699 17,761 16,613 El Salvador 4,767 5,256 5,623 6,465 7.206 7,932 6, 44 9,336 10,003 Greneda 94 94 97 103 110 117 125 133 141 edetlowe 333 341 349 359 370 3J2 398 413 427 OGatem_ta 7.963 9,214 10,595 12,114 13,770 15,505 17,245 18,974 20,642 -Gyano 790 795 6O0 823 647 U 935 981 1,023 Haiti S,922 6,462 7,155 7,641 8,536 9,209 9,869 10,512 11,11s Norduror 4,363 5,119 5,938 6,623 7,744 8,658 9,557 10,415 11,204 Jamaica 2,311 2,413 2,488 2,549 2,625 2,715 2,814 2,919 3,034 Martinique 331 333 338 344 350 357 366 376 386 Mexico 78,524 87,290 96,388 105,011 112,722 120,138 127,677 135,164 142,327 mntsorrat 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 1S Notherlands Antilles 182 13 190 200 212 224 235 246 256 Nicargua 3,272 3,853 4,475 5,148 5,86 6,599 7,320 6,000 8,618 Panam 2,160 2,416 2,634 2,26 3,012 3,205 3,396 3,578 3,745 Poraguy 3,693 4,280 4,905 5,539 6,179 6,823 7,459 8,066 8,618 Peru 19,383 21,631 24,056 26,433 28,699 30,724 32,681 34,634 36,512 St. Kitts nd Nevis 43 40 37 35 34 34 35 37 39 St. Lucia 137 150 162 176 190 202 215 228 241 St. Vincent nd the Grenadines 109 115 121 127 134 142 151 159 167 Surin am 398 445 495 543 586 626 667 709 751 Trinidad wnd Tobago 1,178 1,287 1,381 1,461 1,533 1,607 1,689 1,772 1,849 Uruguay 3,008 3,099 3,193 3,290 3,396 3,500 3,597 3,686 3,778 Venezuela 17,317 19,737 22,107 24,356 26,454 28,364 30,238 32,121 33,926 Virgin lslands (U.S.) 107 106 105 107 109 113 117 122 126 Other Latin America (a) 194 214 234 253 270 287 303 318 332 Northern America 266,039 260,336 291,730 302,049 311,898 320,989 329,551 337,295 343,547 Canada 25,359 26,658 27,850 28,878 29,818 30,648 31,376 31,993 32,457 United S$stoo of America 239,263 250,181 260,313 269,550 278,39S 286,588 294,351 301,407 307,124 Puerto Rico 3,282 3,376 3,441 3,491 3,550 3,615 3,683 3,751 3,820 Other Northern America (a) 115 121 126 131 135 138 141 144 146 Asia 2,624,765 3,099,483 3,37,725 3,668,496 3,912,188 4,166,876 4,415,473 4,661,808 4,901,771 ast end Southeast Asia 1,651,840 1,780,635 1,910,874 2,033,654 2,145,133 2,246,473 2,343,843 2,439,353 2,530,533 rurwi 219 256 294 330 361 386 408 430 451 hina (excluding Taiwon) 1,044,584 1,121,980 1,201,556 1,275,464 1,341,017 1,399,864 1,456,442 1,512,424 1,566,159 Taiwan, China 19,135 20,313 21,230 22,065 22,918 23,743 24,495 25,142 25,708 ong Kong 5,456 5,779 6,069 6,313 6,523 6,698 6,846 6,967 7,062 ndono ia 164,630 181,580 197,878 213,456 227,756 241,568 255,492 269,086 281,910 INThOOUCflON XLVN Contry or eon_ 1905 1990 199f 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Jan 120,754 123,504 126,112 128J723 130,776 131,888 132,024 131,543 130,795 KIAuhe, D". 7,284 8,243 9,156 9,893 10,529 tl,,77? 11,832 12,501 13,132 Kom, DO. People's Rap. of 19,886 21,"2 23,067 24,806 26,632 28,396 29,989 31,408 32,716 Kor", Rep. of 40.806 42,790 44,770 46,720 4,544 50,107 51,417 52,543 53,561 Lao opla's Dem. top. 3,594 4,186 4,831 5,532 6,304 7,144 8,044 8,963 9,849 Mbeso 392 465 513 547 568 5S8 608 628 645 Malats 15,682 17,783 19,959 21,93 23,755 25,392 27,045 28,761 30,421 Mongolil 1,909 2,186 2,497 2,817 3,134 3,439 3,728 3,993 4,255 qyur 37,544 41,609 46,075 50,377 54,353 57,863 61,339 64,946 68,523 Philippine 51,619 62,609 68,865 74,894 80,753 86,259 91,727 97,214 102,507 SIMOWM Z,558 2,722 2,871 2,992 3,099 3.196 3,287 3,370 3,438 Tha{ I tww51,683 55,801 59,765 63,802 67,994 72,065 75,851 79,336 82,584 Viet Nan 59,903 67,389 75,348 82,967 90,116 96,677 103,269 110,095 116,817 Suth Asia 1,058,207 1,186,526 1,314,996 1,442,164 1,572,428 1,70,006 1,830,214 1,956,044 2,079,666 Afonistan 18,087 20,369 23,270 26,699 30,834 35,334 40,242 45,615 51,439 bnladeh 100,593 113,134 125,869 138,736 152,071 165,185 177,388 188,321 199,061 8hJtan 1,286 1,434 1,616 1,826 2,039 2,255 2,478 2,704 2,933 Indio 765,147 849,651 930,639 1,0071,22 1,082,479 1,154,841 1,221,692 1,286,806 1,350,430 Iran, Ilsmic Rep. of 44,212 51,940 60,690 70,192 80,529 91,767 103,849 116,440 129,021 Neldives 183 217 256 299 346 395 u 499 551 Nepa 16,682 19,102 21,562 24,119 26,799 29,5S39 32,216 34,824 37,272 Pakistan 6,l180 113,725 133,170 154,317 177,476 202,815 230,058 258,104 285,410 Sri Lunkr 15,837 16,956 17,923 18,854 19,857 20,876 21,845 22,732 23,549 Southwest Asia 114,718 132,319 151,856 172,678 194,627 217,395 241,416 266,411 291,571 Bahrain 425 502 576 643 703 760 816 865 910 cypu 666 701 730 737 784 812 840 865 886 Gaza Strip 490 556 64 736 u47 975 1,11? 1,269 1,423 Iraq 15,896 18,914 22,374 26,234 30,485 35,027 39,724 44,392 48,978 Ilrael 4,233 4,653 5,057 5,448 5,816 6,171 6,525 6,863 7,172 Jordan (Eat onlty) 2,642 3,158 3,792 4,505 5,282 6,109 6,965 7,889 8,783 Kualt 1,712 2,081 2,414 2,728 3,017 3,261 3,469 3,664 3,841 Lenon 2,668 2,681 2,806 2,982 3,209 3,415 3,627 3,857 4,089 Oan 1,242 1,554 1,891 2,257 2,662 3,127 3,644 4,193 4,752 Qatar 355 453 532 604 668 736 801 863 919 Sadi Arabia 11,595 14,127 17,028 20,320 24,030 28,095 32,523 37,210 42,011 Syrian Arab Rep. 10,458 12,538 15,019 17,857 21,075 24,624 28,443 32,410 36,350 Turkey 50,310 56,190 62,141 67,810 n,963 77,504 81,963 u6,522 90,931 United Arab Emirates 1,349 1,591 1,791 1,978 2,151 2,316 2,459 2,570 2,666 West 5ank 864 1,033 1,238 1,469 1,719 1,987 2,270 2,560 2,347 Yemen Arab tsp. 7,661 9,083 10,908 12,989 15,373 18,112 21,294 24,934 28,973 Yemen, PeopLe's Dm. Rep. of 2,150 2,505 2,917 3,361 3,843 4,362 4,915 5,484 6,042 Europe nd U.S.S.R. 769,038 786,717 803,251 818,717 834,101 47,592 859,005 869,232 878,243 Albanis 2,962 3,261 3,558 3,832 4,080 4,322 4,566 4,804 5,025 Austria 7,555 7,600 7,635 7,643 7,664 7,649 7,623 7,591 7,544 Selgfus 9,858 9,699 9,%28 9,931 9,940 9,931 9,901 9,867 9,832 buLgaria 8,941 8,636 8,490 8,442 8,461 8,455 8,436 8,418 8,418 Chant Istands 134 138 141 142 143 143 144 144 144 Czechoslowvkia 15,500 15,635 15,807 16,091 16,420 16,723 16,997 17,257 17,523 Denrmrk 5,114 5,134 5,148 5,155 5,150 5,137 5,119 5,100 5,077 Finland 4,908 4,998 5,064 5,107 5,145 5,173 5,193 5,203 5,199 France 55,170 56,371 57,644 58,839 59,917 60,810 61,495 62,109 62,672 German Oem. top. 16,644 15,996 15,761 15,615 15,654 15,672 15,670 15,635 15,568 Germany, Fed. Rep. of 61,024 61,533 61,658 61,440 60,921 60,260 59,487 58,720 57,921 Grece 9,934 10,080 10,212 10,317 10,414 10,470 10,467 10,424 10,373 higry 10,657 10,520 10,408 10,365 10,340 10,309 10,271 10,238 10,214 Iceland 241 255 269 282 294 305 316 326 335 Ireland 3,540 3,536 3,563 3,646 3,779 3,927 4,064 4,191 4,313 Tote 10 (contifnud) Caoutry or econ 195 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Itoly 57,141 57,651 57,981 58,072 57,95 57,666 57,023 56,266 55,511 Lux u ourg 367 382 394 404 411 416 418 419 419 Nolte 344 350 358 36? 377 386 39 402 407 Netherlands 14,492 14,899 15,279 15,572 15,752 15,856 15,916 15,959 15,973 Norway 4,153 4,235 4,321 4,397 4,463 4,516 4,570 4,627 4,679 Polan 37,203 38,257 39,119 39,93 40,997 41 99 42,924 43,762 44,546 Portugal 10,157 10,374 10,602 10,813 11,012 11,150 11,241 11,309 11,375 Rommnis 22,725 23,255 23,868 24,511 25,122 25,613 26,070 26,557 27,070 Spin 38,505 39,319 40,144 40,903 41,564 42,016 42,278 42,465 42,669 Sweden 8,350 8,536 8,703 8,836 8,921 8,963 9,022 9,094 9,154 witzertlad 6,472 6,643 6,792 6,892 6,950 C,962 6,965 6,962 6,944 United lUngdm 56,618 57,441 58,240 58,847 59,335 59,746 60,168 60,647 61,099 Yugoslvi 23,123 23,856 24,609 25,358 26,100 26,706 27,182 27,571 27,933 Other Europe (C) 260 271 282 293 303 313 322 331 338 U.S.S.R. 276,946 287,657 297,273 306,613 316,478 325,999 334,762 342,835 349,966 Ocenia 24,634 26,651 28,797 30,819 32,711 34,420 35,945 37,264 38,502 Australia 15,758 17,010 18,327 19,506 20,551 21,434 22,158 22,715 23,198 Fed. States of Nicronesia 91 105 121 138 156 172 187 201 216 Fiji 700 752 795 89 861 896 935 975 1,013 French Polynesia 171 197 226 255 281 302 322 342 362 Gum 123 136 146 156 167 177 la8 195 203 Kiribti 64 70 77 84 91 98 104 1II 117 New CaLedonfa 152 162 1n 181 191 202 213 223 232 New Zealand 3,290 3,394 3,509 3,625 3,734 3,830 3,919 4,004 4,081 Papu New Guirne 3,460 3,904 4,376 4,855 5,337 5,0s5 6,251 6,662 7,079 Solomn lstlds 274 324 386 458 537 623 713 806 898 Tongp 95 99 105 112 118 124 130 138 147 Vanuatu 136 156 182 210 240 271 302 332 361 Western Samom 157 160 171 184 200 217 235 252 268 Other Microresia (a) 85 97 110 122 135 147 157 168 179 Other Polyesia (a) 8O 85 94 103 114 123 131 140 149 a. For a Listing of countries in the mother" categories, see Toble 11. lNTRODUCTION XUX Tdle 11 Populatfen of Comtries an Econmies in the "Other" Categories Population Population Population Coumtry or 1985 Country or 1985 Country or 1985 *comry (thousards) economy (thousands) economy (thousands) Other West Africa 6.9 Other Northern Amrica 115.0 Other micronesia 85.0 St. Helen 5.6 Beruida 56.0 Nauru 8.0 Ascenion 1.0 Greenland 53.0 Johnston Isiand 1.0 Tristan de Cunha 0.3 St. Pierre and a Mquelon 6.0 Marshall slands 36.0 Midway slands 2.0 Other North Africa Other Europe 260.0 Northern Mariana Islands 20.0 Western Sahara 155.0 Andorra 45.0 Palau, Rep. of 16.0 Faeroe Islands 460 Wake Islnd 2.0 Othor Latin Amrica Gibraltar 29.0 and tho Caribbean 194.0 Holy See 1.0 Othor Polynesia 80.1 Anguilla 7.0 Isle of Man 63.0 America Samo 35.0 Arub 60.0 Liechtwntein 27.0 Cook Islands 20.0 Sritish Virgin Islands 12.0 Monaco 27.0 Niue 3.0 Cayman Islands 22.0 San Marino 22.0 Pitcairn 0.1 Faikland Islands 2.0 Tokolau 2.0 Fronch Guinaa 83.0 Tuvalu 8.0 Turks and Caicos Islands 8.0 Waltis and Futuna Islands 12.0 L INO0UCf0 To 1 PopulIation Age 0-14, 1S-64, d 65 *nd Ovor for Alt Countries and Economies, 1952025 (percent) country or *eonWo w *roup 1965 1990 199S 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 World 0-14 33.5 32.4 31.9 31.0 29.6 28.3 27.2 26.3 25.4 156s "0.5 61.4 61.6 62.2 63.2 64.3 64.8 64.7 AL.6 65+ 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.9 7.2 7.5 8.1 9.0 10.0 Africa 0-14 45.3 45.5 45.0 44.2 43.1 41.7 40.0 38.0 36.0 15-64 51.6 51.5 52.0 52.8 53.9 55.2 56.8 58.5 60.2 65+ 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 East Africa 0-14 45.4 46.0 45.9 45.6 4.S 43.1 41.4 39.6 37.7 15.64 51.3 51.0 51.2 51.6 52.6 53.9 55.5 57.2 58.8 65* 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.5 Sotwuu 0-14 48.4 46.8 44.7 39.1 35.2 32.1 29.6 27.4 25.3 15 -6 47.8 49.7 52.0 57.6 61.4 64.4 66.2 67.9 69.0 65. 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.9 4.7 s.7 wd 0-14 43.4 46.5 48.5 49.0 47.6 45.8 43.7 41.8 39.6 15-4 52.9 50.6 49.1 48.8 50.3 52.2 54.3 S6.0 57.8 65* 3.7 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.6 Comoroe 0-14 46.1 47.3 47.6 47.0 44.7 43.1 41.7 39.8 37.4 15-64 51.0 49.8 49.6 50.3 52.5 54.3 55.4 57.0 59.2 65+ 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.5 Dj Iboutl 0-14 45.7 44.7 44.7 44.1 43.4 42.1 40.6 38.9 36.8 1S-64 52.0 52.9 52.8 53.2 53.8 55.0 56.2 57.6 59.4 65+ 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.8 EthioplI 0-14 46.2 47.6 47.5 48.9 48.5 48U 46.6 45.3 43.7 is-64 49.7 49.1 49.6 48.5 48.9 4P 50.8 52.2 53.8 65* 4.1 3.3 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.u 2.6 2.5 2.5 Kenya 0-14 51.2 50.8 49.1 46.5 44.5 42.4 39.4 33.4 31.9 IS-64 45.8 46.4 48.2 50.9 53.0 55.2 58.0 61.6 64.7 65. 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.5 Lesotho 0-14 42.7 43.3 43.0 41.5 39.5 37.5 35.4 33.1 30.5 15-64 53.6 53.1 53.4 54.9 56.7 58.5 60.4 62.5 64.7 65+ 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.? 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.8 Madagascar 0-14 46.3 46.1 44.7 42.4 40.7 39.2 37.1 34.5 31.6 15-64 50.5 50.8 52.2 54.6 56.4 58.1 60.1 62.3 64.7 65+ 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.8 maltei 0-14 46.0 46.7 48.1 48.8 48.3 47.1 45.6 44.5 43.4 15-64 51.4 50.7 49.5 48.8 49.2 50.4 51.8 52.9 54.0 65+ 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 Wwuritius 0-14 30.6 28.8 25.4 23.1 21.7 21.2 20.7 20.0 19.3 15-64 65.8 66.9 69.6 71.1 71.6 70.9 70.0 69.1 67.5 65. 3.7 4.3 5.0 5.8 6.7 7.9 9.3 10.9 13.2 mozabique 0-14 43.7 44.0 44.9 45.0 45.1 43.8 42.2 40.4 38.6 15-64 53.1 52.8 52.0 51.9 51.8 53.2 54.7 56.5 58.2 65. 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 INrnoouTeo u ToUn 12 tcor*nt4im Country Or ocono" so group 1905 1990 199 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 N_1bis 0-14 45.1 45.8 44.8 43.0 40.9 39.3 37.3 34.8 31 .r Is-*4 51.6 51.1 52.1 53.8 5S.8 57.3 59.0 61.3 63.9 65+ 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.4 R ufn1O 0-14 33.3 31.0 28.9 26.8 25.2 23.6 22.5 21.5 20.7 15-*4 61.9 63.8 6S.4 66.9 67.8 68.7 69.5 69.? 67.8 65# 4.9 5.3 5.n 6.3 7.0 7.6 8.1 9.2 11.6 1twd 0-14 46.8 4S3.2 49.9 50.2 49.8 47.8 46.4 45.3 44.0 15-*4 50.4 49.0 47.4 47.2 47.8 50.0 51.6 52.6 53.6 6*5 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.5 soyhttlZ 0-14 36.7 35.3 33.8 31.8 28.9 26.1 24.4 23.7 23.1 15-6* 57.0 58.4 60.0 62.0 64.8 67.8 69.7 70.2 69.2 65* 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 7.7 $otfe 0-14 45.5 46.0 46.1 46.2 45.9 45.1 43.5 41.9 40.2 15-44 51.7 51.1 50.9 50.8 51.2 52.0 53.5 55.1 56.7 6SJ 2.9 ?.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 South Africa 0-14 37.8 38.3 38.1 37.2 34.3 31.7 29.4 27.1 25.3 Is5-" 58.1 57.8 57.9 58.5 61.0 63.1 64.8 66.2 67.1 65+ 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.2 5.8 6.7 7.6 wi^ I n 0-14 48.3 48.5 46.8 44.4 42.7 41.4 39.7 37.2 34.2 Is-"4 49.2 49.3 1;0.7 53.1 54.6 55.9 57.4 59.6 62.2 65 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.6 Tanzania 0-14 46.5 47.5 48.3 48.6 48.3 47.1 45.3 43.5 41.8 15-6 50.4 49.6 48.9 48.9 49.2 50.4 52.1 54.0 55.6 65+ 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.S 2.7 2.5 2.6 0-14 47.9 48.7 49.S 49.7 48.7 46.8 4S.2 43.4 41.5 15-64 49.6 48.9 48.2 48.1 49.3 51.1 52.7 54.3 56.2 65+ 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 Zai re 0B-14 46.1 46.1 45.2 44.5 43.4 42.2 40.5 38.1 35.4 I5-64 51.3 51.3 52.1 52.8 53.8 54.8 56.4 58.6 61.0 655* 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.6 :Zembf 0-14 48.7 49.3 49.5 48.7 47.3 45.9 44.3 42.1 39.7 I5-64 49.0 48.4 48.3 49.1 50.6 51.9 53.4 55.4 57.6 625+ 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.7 ZimW 0-14 47.3 45.5 44.5 39.9 36.5 33.0 30.0 27.3 25.4 15-64 50.2 52.0 52.9 57.3 60.4 63.5 66.0 67.8 68.7 65+ 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.9 5.9 West Atfrica 0-14 46.7 47.0 46.5 45.8 44.9 43.9 42.2 40.1 37.8 15-*4 50.5 50.3 50.7 51.4 52.3 53.3 54.9 56.9 59.1 65+ 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 Anoto 0-14 44.6 44.8 44.9 4S.8 46.2 45.6 44.0 42.2 40.6 15-64 52.4 52.2 52.0 51.1 50.7 51.3 53.0 54.7 56.3 65+ 3.0 3.1 3.1. 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 Bnn0-14 46.7 47.6 46.8 45.1 43.2 41.7 39.8 37.3 34.5 lS-o 50.4 49.7 50.5 52.3 54.2 55.6 57.4 59.7 62.2 65* 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.3 LII INTROCLICTION T110 I (centtnuOd) Counatry or ecooww. *p group 1985 19 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Burkina F*no 0-14 44.3 45.5 46.0 46.1 45.5 44.4 42.6 40.9 39.0 15-64 52.5 51.4 51.0 S1.0 51.7 52.7 54.6 56.4 58.3 65. 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 Cawroon 0-14 45.5 47.3 46.2 45.3 4".8 4.3 43.1 40.8 38.3 15-64 50.5 49.0 50.3 51.4 52.1 ;".7 53.9 56.0 58.3 65+ 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 Cape Verd 0-14 45.2 44.3 44.9 44.2 41.6 37.1 33.4 30.6 28.4 15-"4 49.7 51.7 51.5 52.1 54.7 59.8 64.2 66.8 67.8 65+ 5.2 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.1 2.5 2.6 3.8 Central African tep. 0-14 43.1 42.1 42.6 43.0 42.4 41.5 39.7 37.2 34.7 15-"4 54.6 54.9 53.8 53.0 53.5 54.5 56.4 59.1 61.7 65+ 2.3 3.0 3.6 4.0 4 1 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.7 Chad 0-14 41.0 41.9 42.9 43.6 43.5 42.8 41.2 39.O 37.7 1S-64 55.5 54.5 53.4 52.7 52.7 53.4 55.0 56.6 58.3 65+ 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 Congo, Peopleos Rep. of the 0-14 46.7 45.2 45.9 46.3 46.1 45.5 44.2 42.2 40.3 15-64 51.3 50.9 50.3 50.1 50.6 51.4 53.0 54.9 56.7 65. 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.0 etc d ivolre 0-14 48.9 48.9 48.4 47.6 46.7 45.8 46.6 42.8 40.7 15-l4 48.9 48.8 49.3 50.0 50.9 51.7 53.0 54.6 56.5 65+ 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 Equatorial Guinwe 0-14 38.1 39.5 40.8 41.8 40.8 39.5 37.4 35.6 33.6 15-64 57.6 56.4 55.0 53.9 54.8 56.1 58.1 59.9 61.6 65+ 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.8 o0-14 36.9 39.1 41.4 43.4 43.8 43.5 42.6 40.9 39.4 15-64 58.1 5S.0 53.9 51.8 51.6 52.1 53.1 54.8 56.4 65o 5.n 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 Gambia, The 0-14 42.7 43.8 44.3 44.8 44.9 44.6 43.6 42.0 40.5 15-64 55.0 53.6 53.0 52.3 52.1 52.3 53.1 54.7 56.1 65+ 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 0-14 46.7 46.8 46.0 44.7 42.8 41.1 39.1 36.7 34.0 15-64 50.5 50.3 51.1 52.4 54.3 55.9 57.7 60.0 62.4 65+ 2.9 :.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.7 Gui rla 0-14 40.8 43.0 44.7 45.2 45.0 44.6 43.8 42.2 40.6 15-64 55.7 53.5 ;1.8 51.4 51.7 52.1 53.0 54.6 56.2 65+ 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 Guinea- Bisau 0-14 42.9 43.5 43.7 44.4 44.4 43.9 42.5 40.3 38.2 15-64 53.6 53.. 53.3 52.8 52.9 53.4 54.8 57.1 59.2 65+ 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 Li ber ia 0-14 45.1 45.2 44.5 43.2 41.8 40.6 38.8 36.5 33.9 15-64 51.7 51.6 52.4 53.7 55.0 56.1 57.8 59.9 62.3 65. 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 0-14 46.1 46.6 47.1 47.4 47.0 46.1 44.7 43.3 41.8 15-64 50.4 50.3 50.0 49.9 50.3 51.0 52.6 54.1 55.7 65+ 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.5 INTROUCnO UU TIe 12 CGantinUad) Couatry or eoOneM, ag Browp 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 MAuritania 0-14 43.5 44.3 45.2 46.4 46.6 46.1 44.9 42.9 41.2 1S 64 53.2 52.3 51.5 50.3 50.2 50.9 52.2 54.3 56.1 65. 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 Niger 0-14 46.2 47.2 47.7 48.3 48.) 48.9 48.0 46.3 44.8 15*64 51.3 50.2 49.7 49.2 48.6 48.7 49.6 51.3 52.8 65. 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 Nigeria 0-14 48.3 48.0 47.0 45.7 44.4 43.2 41.4 39.1 36.4 15-64 49.3 49.6 50.5 51.7 52.9 54.1 55.7 58.0 60.4 65. 2.4 ?.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.2 Sio Ta and Principe 0-14 40.7 41.8 41.5 39.5 37.0 35.1 33.1 30.6 27.8 15-64 53.7 53.6 53.6 55.7 58.2 59.5 61.3 63.6 65.7 65+ 5.6 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.8 5.4 5.7 5.8 6.5 St 0-14 46.5 47.0 47.9 48.4 48.2 46.9 44.7 42.5 40.2 15-64 50.7 50.4 49.7 49.4 49.7 51.0 53.2 55.3 57.4 65+ 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 Sierra Lee 0-14 42.5 43.3 43.8 44.3 44.5 44.3 43.4 41.8 40.2 15-U 54.6 53.6 53.0 52.4 52.2 52.3 53.2 54.8 56.4 65. 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Tog. 0-14 46.9 48.1 48.3 47.2 44.9 43.2 41.4 39.2 36.5 15-6 50.0 48.9 48.7 49.9 52.2 53.9 55.7 57.9 60.4 65+ 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 Other West Africa (a) 0-14 35.3 33.2 29.8 28.6 27.0 25.5 24.3 23.2 22.2 15-64 55.6 58.1 61.9 63.3 65.2 66.6 67.7 67.9 67.9 65+ 9.1 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.8 8.0 8.0 9.0 9.9 North Africa 0-14 42.6 41.9 40.6 38.6 36.7 34.4 32.1 29.9 27.9 15-U 53.8 54.5 55.7 57.5 59.2 61.4 63.3 64.8 65.9 65+ 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4 5.3 6.3 Algeria 0-14 45.7 43.5 41.9 39.6 37.5 34.1 30.9 28.0 25.7 15-64 50.7 53.1 54.7 56.9 58.8 62.1 65.0 67.0 68.4 65. 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.2 5.0 5.9 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 0-14 40.5 40.5 38.7 35.8 33.6 31.6 29.5 27.1 24.9 15-64 55.6 55.5 57.1 59.7 61.6 63.4 64.9 66.2 67.1 65+ 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.6 6.8 8.0 Li bye 0-14 46.4 46.0 46.0 45.7 45.1 43.9 42.7 41.2 39.5 15-64 51.3 51.6 51.5 51.7 52.1 52.9 54.0 55.2 56.7 65. 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.8 Morocco 0-14 42.2 41.0 39.8 38.0 35.5 32.5 29.9 27.6 25.7 15-64 53.9 55.4 56.4 58.2 60.5 63.5 65.8 67.3 68.0 65. 3.9 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.3 5.1 6.3 Sudan 0-14 45.0 44.8 44.2 43.6 42.7 41.2 39.4 37.2 34.7 15-64 52.2 52.3 52.9 53.4 54.3 55.6 57.3 59.4 61.6 65+ 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 Tunisis 0-14 39.6 38.1 36.8 34.7 31.9 28.3 25.7 24.3 23.7 15-64 56.5 57.9 58.9 60.7 63.0 66.6 69.0 69.3 68.3 65. 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.0 5.3 6.4 8.0 UV INT30OC0ot TdAb 1i (cor ifd) Cosntry or ocono, oo group 1965 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202S Other north Afriec tca 0-14 43.0 43.9 44.9 45.6 44.3 42.4 40.7 39.0 36.9 15-64 53.2 52.2 51.6 51.0 52.4 54.5 56.1 57.7 59.6 65. 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.4 Amnrica 0-14 31.3 30.4 29.3 27.6 25.7 24.0 23.0 22.3 21.6 15-64 61.4 62.1 62.9 64.5 66.1 67.1 67.0 66.2 65.2 65+ 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.3 8.9 10.0 11.5 13.3 Latin Aerica nd Caribbean 0-14 37.6 35.9 34.2 31.8 29.3 27.0 25.4 24.3 23.4 15-64 57.9 59.5 61.0 63.0 65.1 66.8 67.5 67.4 67.1 65+ 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.2 5.7 6.3 7.1 8.2 9.6 Antigum and Barbuda 0-14 44.1 35.3 28.2 23.3 25.6 26.0 24.5 22.1 20.2 15-64 50.8 58.6 64.8 68.9 66.3 65.8 67.2 69.7 71.1 65. 5.1 6.1 7.1 7.7 8.1 6.2 8.3 8.2 8.6 Argentinr 0-14 30.5 29.8 27.9 26.1 24.6 23.5 2;.7 22.2 21.5 15-64 60.9 61.2 62.6 64.0 65.2 65.8 65.8 65.3 65.0 65+ 8.6 9.0 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.7 11.5 12.5 13.5 Waia, The 0-14 38.0 31.7 28.2 26.3 26.2 25.5 23.8 22.1 21.0 15-64 58.5 64.3 67.4 68.6 67.9 67.6 68.1 68.7 69.1 65+ 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.1 5.9 7.0 8.1 9.2 10.0 inarbedos 0-14 27.7 24.6 23.3 21.9 20.9 19.7 18.7 17.9 17.5 15-64 62.1 65.3 66.5 67.6 68.5 69.0 68.3 66.3 63.3 65+ 10.3 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.6 11.3 13.0 15.9 19.2 Belize 0-14 45.6 42.4 40.3 41.3 39.3 35.9 31.9 28.2 25.9 15-64 50.6 53.5 55.7 54.8 56.5 59.7 63.7 67.5 69.2 65+ 3.8 4.1 4.1 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.9 olivia 0-14 43.8 44.0 43.7 42.7 41.1 39.0 36.7 34.3 31.5 15-64 53.1 52.8 53.0 54.0 55.6 57.6 59.6 61.8 64.2 65+ 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.q 4.3 UraziL 0-14 36.4 35.3 33.6 30.9 27.9 25.5 24.1 23.5 22.8 15-64 59.3 60.3 61.8 64.0 (.i. 4 68.2 68.5 67.3 67.0 65+ 4.3 4.4 4.7 5.1 5.7 6.4 7.4 8.7 10.3 Chitl 0-14 31.5 30.5 29.7 27.4 24.7 23.1 22.4 22.0 21.3 15-64 62.7 63.6 64.0 65.7 67.8 68.6 68.1 66.9 65.7 65+ 5.8 5.9 6.3 6.9 7.4 8.4 9.5 11.1 13.0 Cotombia 0-14 37.2 35.2 32.8 29.2 26.7 24.9 24.1 23.3 22.3 15-64 59.1 60.7 62.8 66.0 68.0 69.2 69.0 68.2 67.5 65+ 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.8 5.3 6.0 7.0 8.4 10.2 Costs Nica 0-14 36.8 36.0 33.9 30.7 27.3 24.8 23.5 22.9 22.1 15-64 59.3 59.7 61.4 64.0 66.8 68.5 68.6 67.6 66.3 65+ 3.9 4.2 4.7 5.3 6.0 6.7 7.9 9.5 11.6 Cua 0-14 25.7 22.5 22.7 23.0 21.7 20.0 18.9 18.3 18.2 15-64 66.4 69.1 68.3 67.2 67.1 67.2 66.7 65.$ 64.8 65+ 8.0 8.4 9.1 9.8 11.2 12.8 14.4 15.8 17.0 INTRODUCTION LV TdAe 12 (eontiImld) Country or *conoW. Y* group 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Dominice 0-14 44.7 41.1 35.1 26.3 25.8 26.2 26.0 24.4 22.1 15-64 49.8 52.8 58.2 66.0 65.7 64.8 64.8 66.4 68.3 65+ 5.5 6.0 6.7 7.7 8.5 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.6 Do0inef n 39.7 37.8 35.9 33.3 30.3 27.5 25.3 24.0 23.2 15-64 57.1 58.8 60.2 62.4 64.8 67.0 68.3 68.7 68.0 65' 3.3 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.9 5.5 6.3 7.4 8.8 Ecusdoi- 0-14 41.8 39.~ 38.0 35.2 32.8 30.1 27.6 25.5 24.0 15-64 54.5 56.4 58.3 60.9 62.9 65.1 67.0 68.1 68.5 65* 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.4 7.5 It Salvador 0-14 46.1 44.2 41.8 40.3 38.6 36.5 33.6 30.5 27.7 15-64 50.6 52.3 54.5 55.8 57.4 59.3 62.0 64.8 67.4 65, 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.6 5.0 Orenat 0-14 35.1 36.4 37.0 32.8 28.5 25.6 24.5 24.1 23.3 15-64 58.7 57.7 56.8 60.8 65.1 68.3 70.0 69.5 68.8 65+ 6.2 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.4 6.1 5.5 6.4 7.9 0-14 2Ł.2 26.4 27.1 25.4 23.3 22.1 21.2 20.7 20.3 15-64 64.0 65.2 63.7 64.9 66.1 66.6 66.2 66.0 65.0 65+ 7.8 8.3 9.2 9.8 10.6 11.4 12.6 13.3 14.7 Uat11cla 0-14 45.9 45.7 44.6 43.0 40.9 38.8 36.2 33.5 30.7 15-64 51.2 51.3 52.2 53.7 55.7 57.8 60.2 62.5 64.8 65+ 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.6 0-14 36.9 35.9 32.9 29.4 26.2 24.7 24.3 23.8 22.7 15-64 59.1 59.7 62.3 65.3 68.3 69.6 69.2 68.4 67.5 65+ 4.0 .4 4.8 5.3 5.6 5.7 6.5 7.9 9.8 0-14 40.2 38.8 38.3 37.5 36.3 33.9 31.4 29.1 27.1 15-64 56.0 S7.4 57.8 58.5 59.4 61.6 63.8 65.8 67.3 65o 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.7 Honduras 0-14 46.3 44.7 43.5 41.r 39.4 36.7 33.8 30.8 28.1 15-64 50.4 52.1 53.4 55.3 57.4 59.9 62.5 64.9 66.9 65+ 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.3 5.0 J-'_ica 0-14 36.6 34.2 31.8 28.2 25.9 24.5 23.5 22.3 21.1 1S-64 57.3 59.6 61.8 65.1 67.4 68.8 69.6 69.8 68.2 65+ 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.7 6.7 7.0 7.8 10.7 Mrtini 245 22. 24.0 23.1 22.0 20.2 19.0 18.7 18.7 0-14245 27 240 21 220 22 190 `.7 17 15-64 65.9 66.7 64.9 64.9 65.2 66.3 66.6 66.1 64.0 654 9.7 10.6 11.1 12.1 12.7 13.5 14.4 15.2 17.3 Mexico 0-14 40.9 37.1 34.8 32.2 29.4 26.6 24.6 23.6 22.8 15-64 55.5 59.2 61.2 63.3 65.6 67.7 69.0 68.9 68.2 65+ 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.4 5.0 5.7 6.5 7.6 9.0 Nontstrrat 0-1' 30.5 28.3 26.4 27.7 26.0 24.1 22.5 21.6 21.1 15-64 56.7 59.8 62.5 62.3 65.1 67.6 68.7 68.4 67.3 65' 12.7 11.9 11.1 10.0 8.9 8.4 8.8 10.1 11.7 NetherLank AntiLtes 0-14 34.7 30.5 29.2 26.4 26.8 25.9 24.3 22.7 21.6 15-64 59.6 63.7 64.9 67.5 66.6 66.8 67.6 68.2 68.5 65' S.7 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.6 7.3 8.1 9.0 9.9 LMd INTRODUCTION T(eu 12 (conttnud) Country Of ocrnoW. a" proup 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Nicaragu 0-14 46.8 45.9 44.4 42.2 39.6 37.1 34.5 31.5 28.4 1s-64 50.7 51.5 52.8 54.9 57.4 59.6 61.9 64.1 66.4 65. 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.7 4.4 5.2 Panams 0-14 37.5 35.0 32.4 29.5 26.4 24.5 23.6 22.9 21.9 1564 58.0 60.5 62.7 65.2 67.7 68.7 68.5 67.9 67.2 65. 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.9 6.8 7.9 9.2 10.9 0-14 41.0 40.5 40.0 38.4 36.2 33.6 31.4 29.2 26.9 15-6 55.5 56.0 56.5 58.1 60.2 62.5 64.3 65.2 66.3 65+ 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.4 5.6 6.9 Peru 0-14 40.5 38.2 36.2 33.5 31.3 28.4 26.1 24.5 23.7 15-64 55.9 58.0 59.8 62.1 63.9 66.3 68.0 68.6 68.3 65+ 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.8 5.3 6.0 6.9 8.0 St. Kitta Nd Nov1a 0-14 37.3 34.9 32.2 29.7 28.3 27.1 25.5 23.9 22.5 15-64 53.1 54.6 57.1 59.4 61.3 63.6 66.9 70.0 71.2 65. 9.6 10.5 10.7 10.9 10.4 9.3 7.7 6.2 6.3 St. LUCia 0-14 46.0 40.2 35.2 33.2 30.8 28.4 25.9 24.2 23.0 15-64 48.1 54.5 59.3 60.9 63.0 65.2 67.8 69.8 70.6 65. 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.0 6.4 St. Vincent and the Gredine. 0-14 37.7 35.6 32.2 28.9 26.7 25.0 24.0 23.0 21.8 15-6 57.4 59.3 62.6 65.9 68.2 69.6 69.6 69.1 67.6 65. 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.4 6.4 7.9 10.6 Surinam. 0-14 37.1 35.7 36.4 34.9 31.2 27.6 25.1 24.0 23.5 15-64 58.7 60.1 59.2 60.1 63.2 66.6 68.8 69.3 68.5 65- 4.3 4.2 4.5 5.1 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.7 8.0 Trinidad and Tobago 0-14 32.9 33.1 32.2 30.2 26.4 24.0 22.9 22.6 22.1 15-64 61.6 61.5 62.2 64.0 67.2 68.7 68.5 67.2 65.6 65+ 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.4 7.3 8.6 10.2 12.3 Uruguay 0-14 26.9 25.8 24.3 22.9 22.1 21.9 21.5 20.9 20.1 15-64 62.4 62.8 63.3 63.8 64.1 64.1 64.2 64.4 64.1 65+ 10.8 11.4 12.4 13.2 13.8 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.8 venzuela 014 39.5 38.3 36.3 33.5 30.4 27.5 25.4 24.0 23.3 iS-(4 57.1 58.2 59.8 62.3 64.9 67.1 68.1 68.2 67.5 65. 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.5 7.8 9.2 Virgin IsLand (U.S.) 0-14 36.0 32.1 28.4 26.2 24.7 24.6 23.8 22.4 21.2 15-64 59.4 62.5 65.2 66.4 66.7 65.3 63.9 63.' 65.0 65. 4.6 5.4 6.5 7.4 8.6 10.1 12.3 14.2 13.8 Other Latin Amrica (a) 0-14 36.4 34.0 30.8 29.3 27.2 25.4 24.2 23.2 22.3 15-64 58.7 61.8 64.4 65.7 67.3 68.4 69.1 69.0 68.3 65+ 5.0 4.3 4.8 5.0 5.5 6.2 6.7 7.8 9.5 Northern America 0-14 21.8 21.7 21.3 20.3 19.2 18.5 18.3 18.2 17.9 15-64 66.5 66.2 66.1 67.0 67.9 67.7 66.0 63.7 61.2 65+ 11.7 12.2 12.6 12.7 13.0 1-J.8 15.7 18.2 20.9 Carnada 0-14 21.5 20.9 20.2 19.1 17.9 17.2 17.1 17.1 16.9 15-64 68.1 67.8 67.6 68.0 68.5 67.9 65.9 63.5 60.7 65. 10.4 11.3 12.2 13.0 13.6 14.8 17.0 19.5 22.3 rNTNocuCnmO LVN TAe 12 (contimwed) Country or econry, ae oroup 1965 19 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 United State of A rica 0-14 21.7 21.6 21.4 20.4 19.3 18.6 18.4 18.2 18.0 15-64 66.4 66.1 66.0 67.0 67.9 67.7 66.0 63.7 61.2 65+ 11.9 12.3 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.7 15.6 18.1 20.8 Puerto Rico 0-14 29.7 28.2 26.1 23.7 22.0 21.1 20.4 19.7 19.1 15.6' 62.1 63.1 64.5 65.9 66.5 65.9 64.8 64.1 63.4 65+ 8.3 8.7 9.4 10.4 11.6 13.0 14.8 16.2 17.6 Other Northern Amrica (a) 0-14 23.6 23.1 23.4 22.6 21.1 1S.9 19.5 19.3 19.3 15-64 70.1 70.4 69.4 69.2 69.7 69.5 67.9 65.9 63.8 65+ 6.3 6.5 7.2 8.2 9.2 10.6 12.7 14.8 16.9 Asia 0-14 34.8 33.0 32.2 31.1 29.3 27.5 26.1 25.0 24.1 15i- 60.5 62.0 62.4 63.1 64.5 65.9 66.7 66.6 66.4 65. 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.6 7.3 8.4 9.5 East wnd Southoest Asia 0-14 31.5 28.6 27.8 27.1 25.5 23.6 22.2 21.4 21.0 15-64 63.3 65.7 65.9 65.9 66.9 68.1 68.5 67.6 66.6 65+ 5.2 5.8 6.4 7.0 7.6 8.2 9.3 11.0 12.4 *ru.f 0-14 36.0 33.4 31.8 29.4 27.8 25.4 23.2 21.7 21.1 15-u 60.9 63.1 64.2 65.9 66.6 67.8 68.7 68.1 66.1 65+ 3.2 3.4 4.1 4.7 5.6 6.8 8.1 10.2 12.8 China (excluding Taiwan) 0-14 29.7 26.4 26.2 26.3 24.8 22.9 21.5 20.8 20.5 15-64 65.0 67.7 67.3 66.6 67.6 68.9 69.2 67.8 66.6 65+ 5.3 5.9 6.4 7.1 7.6 8.2 9.3 11.4 13.0 Taiwan, China 0-14 30.4 28.2 25.0 21.5 20.2 19.9 19.7 19.0 18.2 15-64 64.7 65.7 67.5 70.0 70.5 70.2 69.2 67.0 64.7 65+ 4.9 6.1 7.5 8.5 9.3 9.9 11.1 14.0 17.0 Hong Kong 0-14 23.1 21.3 19.8 18.5 17.2 16.4 16.1 16.0 16.0 15-64 69.3 69.8 69.8 69.8 70.3 70.9 68.8 65.7 61.3 65+ 7.6 8.9 10.4 11.7 12.5 12.8 15.1 18.3 22.7 1 ndones i a 0-14 38.8 36.3 33.5 31.3 28.7 26.5 24.9 24.0 23.3 15-64 57.8 59.8 62.1 63.9 66.0 67.7 68.7 68.7 68.2 65+ 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.8 6.4 7.3 8.6 Japan 0-14 21.5 18.4 16.9 16.5 16.6 16.5 16.0 15.7 15.7 15-6 68.2 69.7 69.0 66.9 64.7 62.5 60.1 59.0 58.8 65+ 10.3 11.9 14.2 16.5 18.7 21.0 23.9 25.3 25.5 Kampuchea, Dn. 0-14 32.6 34.8 41.5 37.6 32.7 28.9 27.1 26.6 26.0 15-64 64.8 62.2 55.3 58.9 63.4 66.9 67.8 67.1 66.6 65+ 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.9 4.3 5.1 6.3 7.4 Korea, Doem. PeopLe's Rep. of 0-14 38.7 34.2 29.9 25.8 25.4 24.8 23.8 22.3 20.9 15-64 57.7 61.7 65.4 68.9 68.4 68.2 68.2 68.3 67.4 65+ 3.6 4.1 4.7 5.4 6.2 7.0 8.0 9.4 11.7 KOres, Rep. of 0-14 30.0 25.6 23.2 21.7 21.0 20.2 19.2 18.4 18.0 15-64 65.7 69.4 71.1 71.4 70.6 70.2 69.7 68.5 66.0 65+ 4.3 5.0 5.7 6.9 8.4 9.6 11.1 13.0 16.0 TWO I IentNOSCTW Comtsy w *eonw _- Fe 195 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Leo eople's Dm. Rep. 0-14 42.7 44.3 45.1 44.8 42.6 40.7 39.1 37.4 35.0 15-6 54.5 52.7 51.8 52.0 5s.0 s5.8 57.2 58.8 60.9 65. 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.1 0-14 23.1 24.2 24.4 23.7 21.1 19.8 19.3 19.3 19.2 15-6 69.3 68.5 67.9 ".2 70.2 71.2 69.4 66.3 62.4 65* 7.7 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.6 9.0 11.3 14.4 18.4 Malaysia 0-14 37.8 36.9 36.6 34.5 31.0 27.3 25.0 23.9 23.4 15-" 58.5 59.3 59.4 61.3 64.1 67.1 68.4 68.3 67.2 65+ 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.3 5.0 5.6 6.6 7.9 9.4 Mongolifa 0-14 41.7 40.8 40.2 38.9 36.7 33.7 30.8 28.0 25.9 15-6 55.1 55.8 56.3 57.3 59.3 61.9 ".3 66.6 67.9 65. 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.4 6.2 NW~u 0-14 39.2 37.1 35.8 34.0 31.7 28.5 26.0 24.5 23.9 15-" 57.0 58.8 59.8 61.3 43.2 "6.2 68.4 69.1 68.6 65+ 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.6 6.3 7.6 Philippines 0-14 41.1 39.9 37.3 33.9 30.7 28.2 26.3 24.9 23.9 15-6 55.5 56. 59.2 62.4 65.2 67.1 68.3 68.6 68.4 65. 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.7 5.4 6.5 7.7 Singpore 0-14 24.5 23.6 23.5 22.4 20.2 18.7 18.2 18.1 18.0 1S-" 70.3 70.8 70.0 70.0 70.7 71.0 68.7 65.4 61.5 65+ 5.2 5.7 6.5 7.6 9.1 10.4 13.2 16.6 20.4 Tha land 0-14 36.5 33.1 30.0 27.3 26.0 25.1 24.0 22.8 21.6 15-6 59.9 63.1 65.8 67.9 68.6 68.9 69.1 68.9 68.2 65. 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.8 5.4 6.0 6.9 8.3 10.2 Viet m 0-14 40.6 39.4 37.7 35.2 32.1 28.8 26.3 24.8 24.0 15-" 54.9 56.1 57.9 60.2 63.3 6.6 69.0 69.5 68.8 65* 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.8 5.7 7.2 South Asia 0-14 39.4 38.8 37.8 35.8 33.5 31.6 29.9 28.3 26.9 15-6 56.7 5s.2 58.1 59.9 62.0 63.7 65.1 66.0 66.6 65+ 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.7 6.5 Afghanistan 0-14 45.4 4S.2 45.7 45.3 46.1 45.7 44.6 42.8 41.2 15-6 52.3 52.5 52.1 52.5 51.7 52.1 53.1 54.8 56.3 65+ 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.6 Bangladesh 0-14 45.7 43.6 40.8 37.7 35.6 33.6 31.4 28.8 26.6 15-" 51.2 53.4 56.2 59.3 61.3 63.1 65.0 67.2 68.6 65+ 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.8 Bhutan 0-14 40.0 39.9 40.S 41.5 41.2 39.5 37.1 34.9 33.0 15-.6 56.7 S6.7 S6.1 55.1 55.3 S6.9 59.2 61.1 62.7 65+ 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.3 Irisa 0-14 37.7 36.9 35.8 33.4 30.8 28.6 26.8 2S.2 24.0 15-64 58.1 58.7 59.6 61.7 64.1 66.0 67.3 68.2 68.4 65. 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.9 6.6 7.6 Iran, Islmic Rep. of 0-14 43.6 43.6 43.6 42.8 41.0 39.1 37.5 35.9 34.0 15-64 53.3 53.4 53.4 54.2 55.9 S7.6 S8.9 59.9 61.3 65+ 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.7 ImcurN ux Td.e 12 (continuid) Country or wAonow so group 1995 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Naldives 0-14 .444 44.6 45.3 45.0 43.1 41.0 38.7 36.3 33.7 15-64 53.4 53.0 51.8 51.5 53.1 55.1 57.7 60.4 62.5 65+ 2.2 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.8 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.8 Nal 0-14 42.3 42.5 41.9 40.1 37.9 36.1 34.1 32.0 29.8 15-64 54.7 54.4 54.8 56.3 58.3 59.9 61.5 63.3 65.2 65+ 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.7 5.0 Pakistan 0-14 44.4 45.3 45.7 45.2 42.9 40.8 39.1 37.2 34.9 1s-6" 52.9 52.0 51.7 52.2 54.5 56.5 58.2 59.6 61.5 65+ 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.7 Sri Lanka 0-14 34.1 32.3 29.3 25.9 24.3 23.6 23.1 22.1 21.0 15-64 61.2 62.7 65.0 67.8 68.7 68.5 67.5 66.8 65.9 65* 4.7 5.0 5.7 6.3 7.0 7.9 9.5 11.1 13.1 Southwest Asli 0-14 40.9 40.4 40.1 39.3 37.8 35.9 34.3 32.9 31.5 15-64 55.4 56.0 56.0 56.5 57.9 59.6 60.8 61.7 62.4 65. 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.4 6.1 Uahrain 0-14 33.3 35.0 35.8 34.1 30.9 28.5 27.0 25.6 24.1 I5-6 64.4 62.7 61.6 62.8 65.2 66.5 66.4 64.9 63.9 65+ 2.3 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.9 5.0 6.7 9.5 11.9 0-14 25.0 25.3 24.9 22.7 21.0 20.3 20.2 20.0 19.5 15-64 64.2 63.9 64.0 65.8 66.6 66.2 64.7 63.5 61.9 65+ 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.5 12.4 13.5 15.1 16.6 18.6 Gaza Strip 0-14 46.9 48.0 49.0 47.9 45.9 43.9 42.0 39.7 36.9 15-64 49.7 48.2 47.1 48.1 50.1 52.3 54.6 57.3 60.5 65+ 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.0 2.7 Iraq 0-14 46.9 46.5 45.3 44.0 42.4 40.5 38.4 35.8 33.1 15-64 50.4 50.8 51.9 53.1 54.5 56.2 S8.1 60.3 62.5 65+ 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.4 0-14 32.6 31.2 29.4 27.5 25.4 23.8 22.7 22.0 21.3 I5-64 58.7 59.9 61.8 63.9 65.8 67.3 67.0 66.0 65.2 65. 8.8 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.8 8.9 10.3 12.0 13.5 Jordan 0-14 46.6 45.5 45.6 45.7 44.3 41.8 39.3 36.9 34.3 15-64 50.7 51.9 51.7 51.4 52.6 55.0 57.4 59.7 61.7 f65 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4 4.0 0-14 40.1 37.1 33.2 29.2 27.0 25.4 23.8 22.4 21.3 15-64 58.6 61.4 64.9 68.1 69.2 69.0 68.5 67.5 65.8 65. 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.7 3.8 5.6 7.7 10.2 12.8 Lobanon 0-14 37.4 36.5 36.5 35.7 32.7 29.1 26.5 25.1 24.5 1s-"4 57.4 57.8 57.3 57.8 61.0 65.0 67.8 68.9 69.0 65+ 5.2 5.6 6.2 6.5 6.3 5.9 5.7 5.9 6.5 0-14 44.4 46.3 46.8 46.2 44.4 43.1 41.9 40.4 38.1 15-64 53.2 51.3 50.6 51.1 52.7 53.7 54.4 55.5 57.3 65. 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.2 4.6 0-14 33.5 34.2 35.7 34.0 32.5 31.4 30.4 29.1 27.3 15-l4 65.2 64.3 62.1 63.3 63.4 63.1 62.0 61.3 61.7 65+ 1.3 1.5 2.2 2.7 4.0 5.5 7.6 9.6 11.1 LX INTROUCTION Tale 12 (entinuad) Country or eono, Sp rop 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Sauf Arabia 0-14 44.9 45.2 44.9 44.4 43.9 42.8 41.5 39.6 37.5 1564 52.5 52.2 52.5 52.9 53.4 54.1 55.1 56.3 58.0 65. 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.1 4.6 Syrian Arab Rep. 0-14 48.1 48.3 47.9 47.0 45.2 43.2 41.0 38.7 36.0 15.64 49.1 49.0 49.2 50.1 51.9 54.1 56.1 58.1 60.3 65. 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.7 Turkey 0-14 36.4 34.8 34.2 32.7 30.1 27.1 24.9 23.7 23.2 15.64 59.4 61.0 61.0 61.8 63.9 66.6 68.3 68.5 67.7 65+ 4.3 4.3 4.9 5.5 6.0 6.4 6.9 7.8 9.1 Unitod Arab Emirsteo 0-14 31.1 31.2 29.7 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.0 24.0 22.2 15-64 67.4 67.2 68.2 69.1 68.1 66.3 64.0 61.7 61.2 65+ 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.9 4.4 6.6 10.0 14.4 16.7 mest lank 0-14 46.2 45.3 45.4 4S.5 44.0 41.6 39.1 36.7 34.2 15-64 51.1 52.1 52.0 51.9 53.2 55.5 57.8 60.1 61.8 65. 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 4.0 Yomen Arab Rep. 0-14 48.1 48.5 49.4 50.4 49.7 48.0 46.5 45.2 43.7 15-64 48.7 48.2 47.5 46.5 47.4 49.4 51.1 52.7 54.3 65. 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 Yemen, Poople's Don. Rap. of 0-14 45.0 45.3 46.3 45.9 44.0 41.8 39.7 37.5 35.1 15-64 52.2 51.8 50.8 51.2 53.0 55.3 57.3 59.5 61.8 65+ 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 Europoe d U.S.S.R. 0-14 22.3 21.7 20.9 20.0 19.2 18.7 18.6 18.4 18.2 15-64 66.1 66.2 65.8 65.7 65.3 65.4 64.7 63.4 61.9 65+ 11.6 12.1 13.3 14.3 15.5 15.9 16.7 18.1 19.8 ALbanfi 0-14 34.5 33.2 31.6 29.6 26.9 24.6 23.2 22.6 22.0 15-64 60.2 61.5 62.6 64.1 65.9 67.5 68.2 67.6 66.4 65. 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.3 7.2 7.9 8.6 9.8 11.7 Austria 0-14 18.6 17.6 17.3 16.2 15.6 15.? 15.2 15.3 15.4 15-64 67.3 67.2 66.6 67.2 66.6 65.4 63.9 62.5 60.4 65. 14.1 15.2 16.0 16.6 17.8 19.5 20.9 22.3 24.3 Eelgiun 0-14 18.8 18.1 17.6 17.0 16.3 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.1 15-64 67.4 67.0 66.3 65.9 65.8 65.8 64.1 62.3 60.1 63+ 13.8 15.0 16.0 17.1 17.9 18.4 20.0 21.7 23.9 BuLgeria 0-14 21.3 19.8 18.2 17.8 17.9 18.3 18.3 18.1 17.9 15-64 67.4 66.5 66.0 64.7 63.9 63.3 61.9 61.3 61.1 65+ 11.3 13.7 15.8 17.5 18.1 18.5 19.7 20.6 21.1 Charnl Islands 0-14 17.4 17.9 18.2 18.7 17.4 16.4 16.0 16.2 16.5 15-64 68.2 67.7 66.4 64.8 65.0 65.2 63.7 60.5 58.5 65+ 14.4 14.3 15.5 16.6 17.6 18.4 20.3 23.3 24.9 Czechoslovakia 0-14 24.4 23.2 21.0 20.5 20.7 20.8 20.2 19.6 19.1 15-64 64.5 65.0 66.6 66.8 66.6 66.0 65.0 63.7 62.8 65. 11.0 11.9 12.4 12.7 12.6 13.2 14.8 16.7 18.1 INTROOUCTION LXI T1.* 12 (continued) Country or ecoao, ag9 group 1985 1990 199S 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Dermark 0-14 18.4 17.1 16.6 16.9 16.5 15.9 15.5 15.5 15.7 15-64 66.5 67.6 68.0 67.6 67.4 66.0 63.8 62.0 60.2 65 15.1 15.4 15.4 15.5 16.2 18.1 20.7 22.5 24.1 Finland 0-14 19.4 19.3 18.6 17.5 16.7 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.4 15-64 68.1 67.4 67.2 67.6 67.4 66.5 63.2 60.7 58.9 65+ 12.5 13.3 14.3 15.0 15.9 17.2 20.4 22.9 24.7 France 0-14 21.2 20.1 19.8 19.3 18.6 17.9 17.5 17.4 17.3 15-64 65.9 66.2 65.5 65.2 65.3 65.4 63.8 62.1 60.6 65+ 13.0 13.8 14.7 15.6 16.2 16.6 18.7 20.5 22.1 Germn Dom. Rep. 0-14 19.3 19.6 19.0 17.6 16.8 16.8 17.2 17.3 17.3 15-64 67.2 66.5 66.5 66.7 155.0 63.7 63.6 61.9 60.7 65+ 13.6 13.9 14.6 15.7 18.2 19.5 19.2 20.7 22.0 Germany, Fed. Rep. of 0-14 15.1 15.3 16.1 16.1 15.2 14.2 14.0 14.4 15.0 1S-64 70.0 69.3 67.7 66.6 64.9 64.2 63.5 61.7 59.0 65+ 14.9 15.5 16.3 17.3 19.9 21.6 22.6 24.0 26.0 Greece 0-14 20.9 19.2 17.5 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.1 16.0 15-64 65.8 66.7 66.5 65.6 64.1 63.7 62.6 61.9 61.0 65+ 13.4 14.2 16.0 18.0 19.5 20.0 21.1 22.0 23.1 Hunsary 0-14 21.0 19.4 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.1 17.9 17.5 17.4 15-64 66.5 67.1 68.2 67.2 66.5 65.6 64.6 62.7 61.7 65+ 12.6 13.6 14.5 15.2 15.5 16.3 17.5 19.8 21.0 Icelnd 0-14 26.4 25.0 24.0 22.7 21.9 21.1 20.3 19.7 19.2 15-64 63.6 64.3 64.9 65.4 66.2 66.6 66.0 64.7 62.9 65+ 9.9 10.7 11.1 11.9 11.9 12.3 13.7 15.6 17.9 Ireland 0-14 79.2 26.7 24.2 22.8 22.6 22.5 21.8 20.7 19.8 15-64 60.0 62.1 64 4 65.8 65.8 65.4 65.1 65.0 64.9 65+ 10.8 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.5 12.1 13.2 14.3 15.3 I taly 0-14 19.3 16.4 15.1 14.6 14.6 14.3 14.1 14.0 14.1 15-64 67.8 68.8 68.3 67.2 65.6 64.7 63.3 62.2 60.5 65+ 12.9 14.8 16.6 18.2 19.9 20.9 22.6 23.8 25.4 Luxembourg 0-14 17.2 17.6 17.9 17.5 16.6 15.9 15.9 16.2 16.3 15-64 69.5 69.0 67.7 67.3 67.2 67.0 65.4 63.1 60.4 65+ 13.3 13.4 14.4 15.2 16.2 17.1 18.7 20.8 23.3 0-i4 24.4 23.4 21.7 20.5 20.0 19.8 19.7 19.3 18.8 15-64 66.1 66.4 67.5 67.8 67.5 66.4 63.9 62.5 61.3 65. 9.6 10.2 10.8 11.7 12.6 13.8 16.4 18.3 20.0 Nether Landa 0-14 18.6 17.6 17.5 17.8 16.9 15.8 15.2 15.3 15.6 15-64 68.9 69.1 68.5 67.5 67.5 67.2 64.9 62.5 59.7 65+ 12.5 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.6 17.1 19.9 22.2 24.7 Norway 0-14 20.4 19.0 18.9 19.0 18.5 17.9 17.4 17.1 17.1 15-64 64.1 64.6 64.6 64.8 65.7 66.0 64.4 62.9 61.1 65+ 15.5 16.5 16.6 16.2 15.8 16.2 18.2 20.0 21.8 0-14 25.5 25.1 23.4 21.5 20.8 20.9 20.8 20.4 19.7 15-64 65.1 64.9 65.5 66.5 66.5 66.7 65.3 63.4 62.0 65+ 9.4 10.0 11.1 12.0 12.6 12.5 13.9 16.3 18.3 T Ms 1Z CoUtimad) Cowtry or eeWOMS - 1965 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Portugal 0-14 23.5 20.7 18.5 17.8 17.9 17.6 17.2 16.7 16.4 15-6" 66.5 66.3 67.3 67.3 66.4 66.2 65.7 65.0 63.5 65U 12.0 13.0 14.0 14.9 15.7 16.2 17.1 18.3 20.1 mom.". 0-14 24.7 23.3 22.0 22.1 22.0 21.5 20.7 20.2 20.0 15-64 65.9 66.4 66.5 65.3 66.3 65.0 65.2 66s 63.6 65. 9.5 10.4 11.5 12.6 13.7 13.6 14.1 15.3 16.4 Spwin 0-14 23.1 20.2 18.1 17.7 17.8 17.5 17.0 16.4 16.3 15s- 66.9 66.6 67.2 66.3 65.6 65.4 64.9 64.4 63.0 65. 12.0 13.3 14.7 16.1 16.6 17.2 18.1 19.1 20.6 S$eden 0-14 17.5 17.5 16.3 19.4 1s.7 17.9 17.4 17.3 17.6 Is-" 66.6 64.4 66.1 63.5 66.0 63.2 61.7 60.5 59.3 65+ 1T.9 18.0 17.6 17.1 17.2 18.9 21.0 22.2 23.1 switzertan 0-14s led 16.9 17.0 17.5 17.9 16.8 15.8 15.5 15.7 16.1 15.66 68.5 66.0 66.9 65.5 65.3 66.2 62.4 60.5 58.4 65. 14.6 15.0 15.6 16.6 17.9 20.0 22.2 23.6 25.5 United Ktfngd 0-14 19.3 18.9 19.4 19.2 18.5 17.6 17.3 17.3 17.4 15-66 65.6 65.4 66.6 66.6 65.0 65.1 63.6 62.6 61.2 65. 15.1 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.5 17.3 16.9 20.0 21.4 Y'uoslavia 0-14 24.1 23.1 21.8 20.7 20.2 19.6 19.4 19.0 15.7 15-64 67.4 67.8 67.5 66.S 65.2 66.7 64.8 63.6 62.4 65. 8.5 9.1 10.7 12.8 14.6 15.5 15.8 17.4 18.9 Othor Eurwpe a) 0-14 20.8 20.4 21.1 21.4 21.3 20.8 20.3 19.9 19.7 1S-6 62.7 63.5 63.3 63.6 66.6 65.3 6S.3 66.7 64.0 65. 16.6 16.1 15.6 15.0 14.2 13.9 14.4 15.4 16.3 U.S.S.R. 0-14 25.2 25.5 24.5 22.8 21.2 20.8 20.8 20.6 20.1 15-6 65.2 65.1 66.5 65.2 65.0 65.7 65.7 66.4 63.0 65. 9.6 9.4 11.0 12.1 13.8 13.5 13.5 15.0 16.9 Oceanfa 0-14 27.7 26.4 26.0 25.2 24.4 23.4 22.4 21.5 20.7 15-6 63.8 66.6 66.5 65.2 65.6 66.0 65.6 65.1 66.2 65+ 8.5 9.1 9.5 9.6 10.0 10.6 12.0 13.5 15.1 o'jatratla 0-14 23.6 22.1 21.6 20.8 20.3 19.6 19.0 18.5 18.1 15-64 66.3 67.1 67.0 67.6 67.8 67.6 66.4 64.9 63.0 65+ 10.1 10.6 11.4 11.5 11.9 12.9 14.6 16.7 18.9 Fed. States of Nicrornesi 0-14 44.1 41.3 38.7 38.2 36.4 33.6 30.3 27.1 24.8 1S-64 52.3 54.7 57.2 57.5 59.2 62.0 66.8 66.9 67.9 65. 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.9 6.0 7.3 0-14 37.3 36.5 33.9 29.9 26.6 24.5 23.6 23.0 22.2 15-66 59.3 59.6 61.6 66.9 67.2 68.2 67.9 66.8 65.7 65+ 3.5 3.9 4.5 5.3 6.3 7.3 8.6 10.2 12.1 French Poltyeli 0-14 41.1 36.8 33.3 33.0 31.4 28.3 25.2 23.3 22.5 15-64 55.8 59.4 62.6 62.5 63.3 65.4 67.6 68.6 68.6 65+ 3.1 3.8 4.1 4.5 5.4 6.3 7.2 8.2 8.9 WrTR0rOUTN UOU Ta1. 12 (eontinsd) Country or econo yN nou 1965 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Gullm 0-14 34.9 33.0 29.6 26.4 24.0 23.3 22.9 22.0 20.6 15-64 62.3 63.7 66.2 6.3 69.7 69.4 66.6 67.1 65.8 65. 2.8 3.3 4.3 5.4 6.3 7.3 6.5 11.0 13.4 Kirfbsti 0-14 39.3 39.6 39.3 38.2 35.6 32.8 30.2 27.6 26.0 15-64 5S.0 57.0 S6.7 57.6 60.3 63.4 65.0 66.8 68.3 65. 2.7 3.3 4.0 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.8 5.4 5.7 Nw Catedonis 0-14 36.2 33.2 30.3 27.6 25.9 24.6 23.6 22.9 21.9 15-64 59.1 61.6 64.3 66.0 67.0 67.3 67.2 67.2 67.4 65+ 4.7 5.2 5.4 6.2 7.1 3.1 9.0 9.9 10.3 NW Zeelai 0-14 24.4 22.5 21.9 21.3 20.6 19.7 19.0 18.5 16.3 15-64 65.2 64.5 66.5 *6.6 67.0 66.9 65.7 64. 62.S 65+ 10.5 11.1 11.6 11.6 12.4 13.4 15.3 17.1 18.9 Pau NW Quin" 0-14 41.6 41.1 41.1 39.9 38.0 35.4 32.7 29.6 27.4 1s-"4 S6.0 56.0 55.5 56.6 58.6 61.1 63.4 66.0 67.9 65 2.4 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.9 4.2 4.7 Ilatown Istar 0-14 48.7 4.8 45.5 45.2 4.5 425. 40.2 37.7 35.0 15-64 48.7 50.5 51.5 51.6 52.4 54.4 56.5 58.9 61.1 65. 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.9 *0-14 39.6 37.6 38.0 37.4 34.2 30.2 27.0 25.1 24.2 I5-6 56.6 58.5 56.3 57.9 60.5 64.2 67.1 66.6 66.9 65. 3.3 4.0 3.8 4.7 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.3 7.0 Vfnuetu 0-14 45.5 44.0 42.8 41.6 40.2 37.7 35.1 32.5 30.0 15-64 51.7 53.2 54.3 55.5 56.5 58.7 60.6 63.0 64.3 65 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.9 3.3 3.5 4.1 4.5 5.2 Western Samoa 0-14 41.1 39.8 39.1 38.1 34.8 31.5 26.9 27.0 25.3 1S-" 55.6 56.2 56.4 5T.1 60.2 63.5 66.3 68.1 69.2 65* 3.4 4.0 4.4 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.9 5.5 Other NIcroAisa (a) 0-14 40.6 39.6 38.8 37.1 34.3 31.1 28.0 25.8 24.4 15-64 55.7 56.9 57.5 58.9 61.2 64.0 66.5 67.8 68.2 65. 3.7 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.5 4.9 5.5 6.4 7.4 Other Polltyuio (a) 0-14 45.7 41.2 37.4 34.3 32.6 29.7 26.7 24.6 23.5 154 50.8 55.1 58.4 61.2 62.2 64.9 67.1 68.9 69.5 65+ 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.5 5.3 5.4 6.2 6.6 7.0 a. For a listing of countries in the lotherm categories, see Tabte 11. LXIV INTROOUCTION Tble 13 Stotlonary POpulation Mommntum, nd Year ihen Net Reproduction Rate Reaches 1 for All Countries and Economies Stationary population Stationery population Popula- Popula- tion Year tion Year Ratio to momen- ihen Ratio to momen- when Country or econow M llions 1990 tum MARNZ Country or econoy "Millions 1990 tum NRRO1 WorLd 12537 2.4 1.4 2060 North Africa 452 3.2 1.6 2050 Algeria 78 3.1 1.7 2020 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 141 2.7 1.6 2020 Africa 3481 5.4 1.6 2060 Libya 36 7.8 1.7 2050 Morocco 70 2.8 1.6 2020 East Africa 1649 6.1 1.5 2055 Sudan 108 4.3 1.5 2035 lota ans 4 2.9 1.8 2015 Tunfisi 19 2.3 1.6 2010 Burundi 33 6.1 1.4 2045 Other North Africa (a) 1 4.9 1.4 2040 Comoroe 3 5.9 1.6 2040 DJibouti 2 5.4 1.5 2040 Aoerics 1300 1.8 1.4 2030 Ethiopia 474 9.4 1.5 2055 Kenya 113 4.7 1.7 2035 Latin America nd Caribben 947 2.1 1.6 2030 Lesotho 6 3.6 1.5 2030 Antiguo nnd Barbuda 0.1 1.8 1.7 2030 Madaoscar 42 3.7 1.5 2030 Argentina 54 1.7 1.3 2005 Malaow 79 9.3 1.6 2055 Bahwzas, The 0.5 1.8 1.5 1990 Mauritius 2 1.4 1.3 2030 Barbdbs 0.3 1.1 1.4 2030 Mozbique 93 5.9 1.5 2045 Belize 1 3.1 1.8 2020 Hasibia 6 4.1 1.6 2030 Bolivia 28 3.8 1.5 2030 R-union 1 1.8 1.5 1995 Brazil 304 2.0 1.5 2005 aw nC 71 9.9 1.6 2055 Chile 23 1.7 1.4 2000 Seychelle 0.1 1.7 1.6 2005 Coloabia 64 1.9 1.6 2000 Somalti 41 6.6 1.5 2050 Costs Rica 6 2.0 1.7 2005 South Africa 96 2.7 1.5 2020 Cubs 14 1.4 1.3 2030 Sw zIland 4 4.9 1.7 2035 Dominica 0.2 1.8 1.7 2000 Tanzanf1 189 7.6 1.5 2050 Dominican Rep. 15 2.1 1.7 2010 Uganda 129 7.5 1.5 2050 Ecuador 26 2.5 1.7 2015 Zaire 175 4.9 1.5 2040 El Salvador 16 3.0 1.7 2025 Zadb1c 5? 7.0 1.6 2045 Grenada 0.2 1.9 1.6 2005 Zimbabu 29 3.0 1.7 2015 Guadloupe 0.5 1.4 1.4 1990 Guat em t 35 3.8 1.7 2030 West Africa 1379 5.8 1.5 2060 Guyana 1 1.6 1.5 2000 Angolt 69 6.9 1.5 2050 Haiti 17 2.7 1.5 2025 Benin 21 4.5 1.6 2035 Honduras 18 3.5 1.7 2025 Burkina Faso 52 5.8 1.5 2045 Jamaica 4 1.5 1.6 1995 Cameroon 75 6.3 1.6 2045 Martinique 0.4 1.2 1.3 2030 Cap Verde 1 3.4 1.8 2025 Mexico 184 2.1 1.7 2005 Central Afrficn Rep. 13 4.2 1.4 2035 Montserrat 0.02 1.5 1.4 2000 Chad 30 5.3 1.4 2045 Netherlands Antilles 0.3 1.8 1.5 2030 Congo, People's Rep. of the 17 7.7 1.6 2050 Nicaragua 14 3.6 1.7 2025 Cote dlIvoire 95 7.7 1.6 2050 Panaen 5 1.9 1.6 2000 Equatorial Guinea 1 3.8 1.3 2035 Paraguay 13 3.1 1.6 2025 Gabon 7 6.0 1.4 it45 Peru 50 2.3 1.6 2010 Gambie, The 5 6.3 1.4 2050 St. Kitts nd Nevis 0.05 1.3 1.6 2000 Ghana 67 4.5 1.6 2035 St. Lucie 0.3 2.1 1.8 2005 Guinea 34 5.9 1.4 2050 St. Vincent nd Grenadins 0.2 1.8 1.6 2000 Guiner-Sissau 4 4.5 1.3 2045 Surinwae 1 2.3 1.6 2010 Liberif 11 4.4 1.5 2035 Trinidad and Tobago 2 1.8 1.5 2005 mati 63 7.5 1.5 2050 Uruguay 4 1.4 1.3 1995 Mauritania 14 6.8 1.4 2050 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 0.2 1.5 1.5 1995 Niger 83 10.8 1.5 2060 Venezuela 45 2.3 1.6 2010 Nigeria 622 5.3 1.6 2040 Other Latin America (a) 0.4 1.8 1.5 2000 Sac Tom and Principe 0.4 3.2 1.6 2025 Senegal 48 6.5 1.4 2045 Northern America 353 1.3 1.1 2030 Sierra Leon 25 6.1 1.4 2050 Canada 32 1.2 1.2 2030 Togo 19 5.3 1.6 2040 United States of America 317 1.3 1.1 2030 Other West Africa (c) 0.01 1.6 1.4 2000 Puerto Rico 4 1.2 1.4 1995 Other Northern America (Ca) 0.1 1.2 1.2 2030 INTroaUCTION LXV Tale 13 (continued) Stationery population Utstionary population Popul Popula- tion Year tion Yser Ratio to mammn- when Ratfo to omar- when Country or econmy Million 1990 tun NIRUI Country or econmy lillione 1990 tue NRRuI Asia 6791 2.2 1.4 2055 Europe and U.S.S.R. 919 1.2 1.1 2030 East ad Southeast Asia 3046 1.7 1.4 2035 Albania 6 1.9 1.5 2005 Bruiei 1 2.2 1.5 2010 Austria 7 0.9 1.0 2030 China (exol. Taiwan) 1839 1.6 1.4 2000 Selgius 9 0.9 1.0 2030 Taiwon, China 27 1.3 1.4 2030 Bulpgari 9 1.0 1.0 2030 long Kong 6 1.1 1.2 2030 Chwwel Islsnd 0.1 1.0 1.0 2030 Indonesis 371 2.0 1.5 2005 Czechoslovakia 19 1.2 1.1 2030 Japan 121 1.0 1.1 2030 Drmark 5 0.9 1.0 2030 Katuchea, DM. 19 2.3 1.3 2015 Finland 5 1.0 1.0 2030 Korea, Dm. Peopl's Rep.of 40 1.9 1.6 1995 Franee 63 1.1 1.1 2030 Korea, Rep. 56 1.3 1.3 2030 German Dm. Rep. 15 1.0 1.0 2030 Lao People's DO. Rep. 19 4.5 1.5 2035 Germany, Fed. Rep. of 50 0.8 0.9 2030 Hugo 1 1.5 1.2 1990 Gr eo 10 1.0 1.1 2030 Molaysia 40 2.3 1.6 2010 Hungary 10 1.0 1.0 2030 Mongolia 6 2.9 1.6 2020 Icoland 0.4 1.5 1.3 2030 Nyarur 94 2.3 1.5 2010 Ireland 5 1.4 1.3 1990 Philippines 140 2.2 1.6 2010 Italy 46 0.8 1.0 2030 singapore 4 1.3 1.3 2030 Luxembourg 0.4 1.0 1.0 2030 Thailatd 103 1.8 1.5 1995 Matta 0.4 1.3 1.1 2030 Viet lim 160 2.4 1.6 2010 Netherlands 14 1.0 1.1 2030 Norway 5 1.1 1.1 2030 South Asia 3208 2.7 1.5 2055 Poland 50 1.3 1.2 1990 Afghanistan 134 6.6 1.4 2055 Portugal 11 1.1 1.2 2030 la tgadesh 302 2.7 1.5 2020 Romania 31 1.3 1.1 1985 Bhutan S 3.7 1.4 2035 Spain 41 1.0 1.2 2030 India 1870 2.2 1.4 2015 Swden 9 1.1 1.0 2030 Iran, Islaic Rep. of 248 4.8 1.6 2040 Switzerland 6 1.0 1.0 2030 Matdives 1 4.8 1.6 2035 United Kingdom 61 1.1 1.1 2030 Npepl 61 3.2 1.5 2030 YugosLavia 30 1.3 1.2 2030 Pakistan 559 4.9 1.6 2040 Other Europe 'a) 0.3 1.3 1.1 1990 Sri Lanka 28 1.7 1.5 1995 U.S.S.R. 400 1.4 1.2 1995 Southwest Asi. 537 4.1 1.6 2055 Oceania 46 1.7 1.3 2040 Bahrain 1 2.5 1.4 2020 Cyprus 1 1.4 1.3 1995 Australia 24 1.4 1.2 '030 Gaza Strip 3 5.3 1.7 2040 Fed. States of Micronesia 1 1.7 1.6 2005 Iraq 90 4.8 1.7 2035 Fiji 0.5 2.4 1.7 2010 Isrool 9 1.9 1.5 2005 French Polynesia 0.2 1.8 1.5 1995 Jordan 17 5.3 1.7 2035 Gum 0.2 2.5 1.4 2020 Kwait 5 2.3 1.6 2010 Kiriboti 0.3 1.8 1.5 2000 Lebanon 6 2.1 1.6 2010 New Caledonia 4 1.3 1.2 2030 0an 11 6.8 1.6 2045 New Zealand 0.3 3.0 1.8 2020 Qatar 1 3.1 1.3 2030 Paa New Guinea 11 2.9 1.4 2020 Saudi Arabla 93 6.6 1.6 2045 Solomon lgad 2 5.5 1.7 2040 Syrian Arab Rep. 74 5.9 1.8 2040 Tongs 0.2 2.1 1.6 2015 Turkey 120 2.1 1.5 20'0 Vanuatu 1 3.9 1.7 2030 United Arab Emirates 3 2.2 1.2 2020 Western Samoa 0.4 2.4 1.6 2020 West Sank 5 5.2 1.7 2035 Other Micronesia (a) 0.3 2.o 1.6 2015 Yemen Arab Rep. 87 9.5 1.6 2055 Othor Polynesia (a) 0.2 2.4 1.7 2010 Yemen, People's Dm. Rep. 12 4.6 1.6 203: Note: Populations of more than 1 million have been rounded to the nearest million. a. For listings of countries in the "other" categories, see Table 11. LU It4NTC"ON APPENDIX: DATA AND METHODS Nature and Sources of Data The key data for these projections are base-year (mid- 1985) total population estimates and age-ex structures, base-period (1985-90) mortality, fertility, and migration rates, and assumed trends in the rate. The sources of these data will be described, as well as the sources for similar data going beck to 1975 and for recent trend data on other indicators. A country-by-country listings of the sources of base data is in Table Al. Popuiaon and Age-Sex Structure Estimates of the total mid-year population in 1980 and 1985 are obtained from the most roeent reliable sources. As far as possible these are recent census totals projected to the desired year, with appropriate adjustments for under-reporting. A number of such estimates made by the United Nations (U.N.) Population Division (in the forthcoming World Population Prospects 1990) have been adopted. For countries with dated or unreliable census data, other official estimates may be taken, often from the U.N. Population and Vital Statistics Report and occasionally from Sovernment publications. Other sources of estimates include Eurostat (1989) and the U.S. Bureau of the Cenwus (1985; Jamison, Johnson, and Engels 1987). The specific source of information for each country is listed in Table Al. The mid-1985 population of each country is distributed by age and sex using a percentage distribution obtained from one of a few sources. One source is World Population Prospects 1988, which has distributions calculated by the U.N. Population Division from census data adjusted for age misreporting or estimated using stable population analysis. Other sources include, for most Sub-Saharan and a few other countries, World Bank or official estimates of curmnt age-sex distribution, frequently derived by stable population analysis. The age and sex distribution for 1980 is based mainly on World Population Prospects 1988. Mortlty Data Base-period mortality levels in the projections are represented by life expectancies at birth by sex and infant mortality rates for both sexes combined. Life expectancies for the quinquennia 1975-80, 1980-85 and 1985-90 were obtained from a variety of sources. A preliminary version of World Population Prosnects 1990 was a common source. Other figures are based on official or other estimates appearing ini Population and Vital Statistics Report or government publications. A few figures are taken from the U.S. Bureau of the Census (1985; Jamison, Johnson, and Engels 1987), Eurostat (1989), and Monnier (1988). These sources often report mortality levels for periods other than the desired quinquennium, or give indices other than life expectancies, or both. Some estimation and projection is then necessary to obtain the right index. In some cases, a mortality estimate is first made for an earlier period, and an estimate for 1985-90 obtained by applying the projection methodology described below. Some Bank sources are also cited in Table Al: Bank sector reports; Bank assessments, involving unpublished analysis of census or survey data; and Bank estimates, or informed judgments for which no further source can be cited. Infant mortality rates, like life expectancies, were commonly taken from the preliminary version of World Population Prospects 1990. However, a number are drr,wn from Population and Vital Statistics Report, and others are estimated from diverse data. In particular, several estimates are derived frcn recent Demographic and Health Surveys. Tke mortality risk for children under age S for the current period is derived from a model described below. For earlier periods, this indicator INTlOOUCaON LXW is of?n ddived hom the U.N. publication Mortalty of 0didren Under Age 5. F.adWy Dab Total felity rates for the qtlenquennia 1975-80, 1980-85 and 1985-90 are derived from the same mix of sources as mortality raes, including World Population Prospects 1990; official sours, as cited in Population and Vital Statiscs Report or in government publications; the U.S. Bureau of the Census (1985; Jamison, Johnson, and Engels :987); and Monnier (1988). We also relied on various surveys, especially in the Demographic and Health Surveys series. Often, these sources give fertility estimates for a different period or in terms of the crude birth rate, and appropriate total fertility rates were obtained by projection of earlier estimat or approximated using availabl data on age-sex composition and age-specific fertility. Table Al lists the specific source of the bis dat for each country and also indicates some case where an informal Bank estimate was made in the absnce of reliable data. M1gradon Data Estimates of net international migration in recent periods, by sex, were made from a review of international migration statistics published by national immigration agencies, statistical orgnizations, and other official and unofficial sources; from country population estimates and projctions produced by international and regional agonies, national census and statistics offices, other government organizations, interagncy task forces, and research insdtutions; and from discions with expert in the subject. Arnold (1989) summarizes all these estimates. Subsequent revisions have been made in a number of cases for consistency with other projection parameters or because of recent events. For instance, the numbers of migrants for European countries have been adjusted because of substantial flows out of Eastern Europe. For purposes of these estimates, those who have resided in countries different from their previous residences for at least a year or who are believed likely to remain permanently in receiving countries are considered migrants. An exception are refugees living in officially designated camps, who continue to be counted in their countries of origin regardless of period of residence. Only net estimates by quinquennium were made; immigration and emigration were not estimated separately, and single-year figures were not assessed. Other Daka Data on 1988 GNP per capita are from the World Bank Socioeconomic Data Base, and are as of mid-1990. Density is calculated as population per square kilometer of land area. The data on urbanization (urban population as a percentage of total population) are from the U.N. publication Prospects of World Urbanization 1988, supplemented by data from the World Bank. Government assessments cf population growth rate and fertility are from the population policy data bank maintained by the U.N. Population Division. The sources for contraceptive prevalence and contraceptive method mix data are given for each country in Table Al. Projection Methodology Population projections were run by quinquennium using the cohort-component method (Shryock and Siegel 1975), as implemented in a microcomputer program, PROJ3L, developed for the Bank. (Hill 1990 documents PROJ3S, which is the same program except for allowing only 75-year rather than longer projections.) We describe here what assumptions were made about future trends in vital rates--mortality, fertility, and migration--for purposes of these projections. LxVI INhOn OfuON Table Al Sources Country, conjeJy or territory Total population, mid-1955 Total fertility, 1985-90 Life expectancy, 1985-90 Afghanistan Bank projection from 1979 census, U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. nc. Afghan refuge*s abroad Albania UNPVSR 7/86 (official est.) Based on CBR, UNPVSR 10/89 U.N. 1990 rev'sion Algeria lank projection from official 1/85 Bank sector report 6/88 U.N. 1990 revision est. American Samoa U90C 19e8 Based on CBR, UNPVSR 10/89 USBOC 1988 (official est.) Andorra US OC 1963 Angola U.N. 1990 rev!sion U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Anguilla UNPVSR 1/87 Antfu and U.N. 1990 revision Based on official CBR Based on official CMR Barbuda Argentina U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Aruba lased on UNPVSR 1987-89 - - Australia UNPVSR 4/87 (official est.) Based on MR, UNPVSR 10/88 U.N. 1990 revision (officiat est.) Austria UNPVSR 7/86 (official est.) Based on onnier 1988 Based on CDR (official est.) Bahamas, The UNDY 1986 Based on CBR, UNPVSP 4/87 Based on CDR, UNPVSR 10/89 (official est.) (official aet.) Bahrain Official est., Central Stat. Official est. (Central Stat. Based on official est., Central Organization, 10/e9 Organization) Stat. Organization Bangladesh Bank projection from 1981 census Based on 1989 Fertii'zy Survey U.N. 1990 revision Barbados UNPVSR 7/86 (official est.) Based on CBR, UNPVSR 10/89 Based on CR, UNPVSR 10/89 (official est.) (official est.) Belgium Eurostat 1989 Based on CdR, rostat 1989 U.N. 1990 revision Belize UNPVSR 7/86 (official est.) Based on L 985 Based on USBOC 1985 lenin Bank projection from census Based or .1 survey and WFS Based on UFS Bermuda UNPVSR 1/87 (official est.) Bhutan Official est. (Statistical Hand- U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision book of Bhutan 1985) Bolivia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Botswana Bank projection from 1981 census Based on OHS 1988 Based on OHS 1988 Brazil U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revisior British Virgin UNPVSR 1/87 (official est.) Istands Brunei Bank est. based on 1981 census Based on CBR, UNPVSR 10/88 Based on official est, for 1971 and and 1986 official est. (official est.) 1981, Economic Planning Unit Bulgaria Bank projection from 1985 census U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Burkina Faso U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Burundi Bank projection from 1979 census DHS 1987 Bank est. Cameroon Bank projection frou 1976 and 1987 Bank est. Based on WFS censuses and official 1987 est. Canada UWPVSR 7/86 (official est.) Official est., Population Official est., Population Projections for Canada, 1984-2006 Projections for Canada, 1984-2006 Cape Verde UNPVSR 10/89 Based on official CBR Based on official CDR Cayman Islands Central African U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Based on 1975 census chiLd Rep. survival data INTROoUCTION LXIX of Populatlo Data Cciuntry, Most recent econom or Infant mortality 1985-90 Age*seax structure, 1985 contraceptive prevalence territory U.N. 1990 revision ank est. Ross et al. 1988 Afghanistan UUPVSR 10/89 (official eat.) U.N. 1988 revision - Albania U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Mauldin and Segal 1988 Algeria USEOC 1968 Bank est. -- American Samoa Andorra U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross et al. 1988 AngoLa Angui l la Based on officlal est. UNDY 1978 U.N. 1988 Antigua and Barbuda U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision -m Argentina Aruba UNPVSS 4/87 (official est.) U.N. 1988 revision Pop. Ref. Bureau 1990 Australia UIPV.I 10/88 (official est.) U.N. 1988 revision U.N. 1988 Austria UhPVSR 10/89 (official set.) Eased on 1980 census Bahams, The Official est., Central Stat. U.N. 1988 revision Bahrain Organization U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Fertility Survey 1989 Banr'adesh lased on UNPVSR 10/89, U.N. 1988 revision U.N. 1988 Barbados (off'ciat ast.) Euroi tat 1989 Eurostat 1989 U. N. 1988 BeLgium Base on USB8C 1985 Based on UNDY 1978 Pop. Ref. Bureau 1990 BeLize Babed on UFS Based on 1979 census Ross et al. 1988 Benin Bermuda U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Bhutan U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision DHS 1989 Bolivia lased on DNS 1988 U.N. 1988 revision DHS 1988 Botswana U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision DHS 1986 Brazil British Virgin IsLands Bank est. Based on 1981 census and Brunei official projection UNPVSR 10/89 (official est.) U.N. 1988 revision U.N. 1988 Bulgaria U.N. 1990 revision Bank st. -- Burkina faso Based on DHS 1987 U.N. 1988 revision DHS 1987 Burundi U.N. 199 revision Based on 1976 census iFS 1978 Cameroon UlPVSR 10/89 (official est.) Official ast., Population Mauldin and 3egal 1988 Canada Projections for Canada, 1984-2006 U.N. 1990 revIsion lased on 1980 censu -- Cape Verde Cayman IsLands U.N. 1990 revision Based on 1975 cenwus - Central African Rep. LXX INThoCUCTION Td1t Al (continued) Country, econr., or territory Total population, mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985 90 Lifo expectancy, 1985-90 Chad U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 rovision Channl Islandb Bonk eat. based on 1981 and 1986 Based on C8R, UNPVSR 10/89 Based on CDR, UNPVSR 10/89 cenaes (officiaL .st.) (official eSt.) Chilo U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision China (exel. Bank eat. based on official est., Based on CBR from 1987 Based on Bank report 3/88 Taiwan) Statistical Yearbook, 1989 Demographic Survey Coloabis U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision CrmoroS Bank projection from census, excl. Bank sector report Based on Bank sector report Nayotte (pop. 50.14 thousand) Congo, Peopleos Bank projection from 1984 census Bank estimate U.N. 1990 revisIon Rep. of the Cook Islands USPVSR 4/90 (official eat.) -- Costa RICa Official est., Direccion General U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision de Estadistica y Censos C6te d'Ivoire U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Cubs UNPVSR 10/86 (efficial eat.) Based on CBR, UNPVSR 10/88 Based on CDR, UNPVSR 10/88 (official est.) (official est.) Cyprus Based on PVSR 4/87 (official *st.) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Czechoslovakia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Dsourk Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 Djibouti U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Dominica Official est., OECS Stat. Digest Based on CBR, UNPVSR 10/89 Based on CDR, UNPVSR 10/89 1)87 (officiat est.) Dominican Rep. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Ecuador U.N. 1990 revision ,HS 1987 U.N. 1990 revision Egypt Bnk est. based on de facto est. Based on prelim. report, DHS 4/89 Based on prelim. report, OHS 1988 of census 11/86 El Salvador U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Equatorila Bank projection from 1983 census Bank est. Bank est. Guines and 1982 household listing Ethiopis Official est., CentraL Stat. Official est., Central Stat. Bank sector report Authority 1988 Authority 1988 Faeroe IsLands UNPVSR 1/87 (official ost.) Fatkiand Islands UNPVSR 1/87 (official est.) Federated States Official est., ESCIA Stot. Year- Based on USSOC 1988 est. for Based on USBOC 1988 for Pacific of Micronesis book for Asia and Pacific, 1988 Pacific Islands Islands FiJi Bank est. based on census 8/86 USBOC 1988 U.N. 1990 revision Finland UNPVSR 7/86 (official est.) Based on CBR, UNPVSR 10/89 Based on COR, UNPVSR 10/89 (officiat est.) (official eSt.) Francs Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 French Guiana UNPVSR 1/87 (official est.) French nolynesfa Based on PVSR 10/83 (of'icial USBOC 19S8 USBOC 1988 est.) Gabon Bank projection from 1960 census Bank est. Bank est. Gmbia, The Bank projection from 1983 census Bank est. Bank et. Gaza Strip Bank est. Based or CBR from West Bank Data USBOC 1988 Base Project 1987 INOOUC1nON UCxI Country, Most recent *concm,- or Infant mrtality, 1965-90 Age-sex structure, 1985 contraceptive prevalence territory U.N. 1990 rovisIon Bank est. IPPF Chad UNPYSA 10/89 (official est.) UNDY 1981 - Chanoi Islands U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross et al. 1988 Chile U.N. 19O revision Bcsed on Bank report 1988 Ross *t al. 1988 China (exeL. Tai wan) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision DHS 1986 Colombio U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Comoros Sased on 1984 census Bank st. -- Congo, Peoples Rep. of the Cook Island U.N. 199 revilson U.N. 1988 revision Ross *t at. 1988 Costs Rica U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross et at. 1988 Cote d'Ivoire UNPVYS 10/U (officiol est.) U.N. 1988 revision Ross et et. 1988 Cuba BSed on ULLPVU 10/89 U.N. 1988 revision Cyprus (officat est.) UNPVYS 10/t (official est.) U.N. 1988 revision Survey 1977 Czechoslovskia Euroetat 1969 Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1988 Donmark U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision -- Djibouti Based on official INK Based on UNDY 1970 -- Dominica U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision DHS 1986 Dominican Rep. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision DHS 1987 Ecuador U.N. 198 revision U.N. 1988 revision DHS 1988 Egypt U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision CPS 1988 El Salvador U.N. 1990 revisicn Bank st. -- Equatorial Guinea U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross et a*. 1988 Ethiopia -FVroe Islnds Falkland Islands Based on US=OC 1968 for Pacific Bank est. Federated States Isarnds of Micronesia USOCC 1968 U.N. 1988 revision Ross et Al. 1988 Fiji Nonnitr 1966 U.N. 1988 revision U.N. 1968 Finland Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1988 France French Guian USSC 1966 Bank est. French Polynesia U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Gabon U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. IPPF Gambia, The USSOC 1986 Bank est -. Gaza Strip LJCXN INTRODUCTION TdeI Al (continued) Country, ecow , or territory Total population, mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985-90 Life expectancy, 1985-90 Germn Dm. lRp. UkPVSR 7/86 (official est.) Based on CBR, UNPVSR 10/88 U.N. 1990 revision Ger_any, Federal Eurostst 1989 Monnier 1988 U.N. 1990 revision Rep. of Ghwn Official est. DHS 1988 U.N. 1990 revision Gibraltor UNPYSI 1/87 (official est.) Grece Eurostat 1989 Based on Eurostat 1989 Based on CDR Grenland UNPVSR 1/87 (offIcial est.) Grende Official est., OECS Statistical Based on official 1980-85 est., Based on official 1980-85 est., Diest 1987 Ministry of Finance Ministry of Finance Guadoloupe U.N. 1990 revision Based on CBR U.N. 1990 revision Guam U#O 1968 USBOC 1988 USBOC 1988 Guateasla U.N. 1i90 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Guin a U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 19 revision U.N. 1988 revision Guinra-BisCu Sank projection from fS/9 census Bank est. Bank est. Guyan UNPVSR 10/88 (official sst.) Based on official CBR U.N. 1990 revision Haiti U.N. 1968 revision U.N. 1988 revision U.N. 1990 revision Noly See UliPVR 1/87 (official eat.) Nordura. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Hong Kcng U.N. 1990 revision Based on CBR, UNPVSR 4/90 U.N. 1990 revision ;ungary Official at., Stat. Pocket Book Monnier 1988 U.N. 1990 revision 1987 Iceland UIPVSR 7/86 (official e*t.) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision India Sank projection from adjusted Based on USBOC 1988 U.N. 1990 revision 1981 cenus Indonesis Official est., Biro Pusat Based on OHS 1987 Based on UHS 1987 Statistik 1988 Iran, Islmic UNPVSR 4/87 (official est.) U.N. 1988 revision Bank est. Rep. of Iraq U.N. 1990 evision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Ireltnd Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 Based on CDR !sle of Man US80C 19S Isroel U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Italy Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 Based on CDR, Eurostat 1989 Jamics U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Japan UNPVSR 4/87 (official est.) U.N. 1990 revicton U.N. 190 revision Johnston IsLand Based on UNPVSR 4/90 Jordan ;East Based on o'ficial est., Stat. Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank) Yearbook 1987 Kaspuches, Dem. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Kenya U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 190 revision U.N. 1990 revision Kiribati Bank projection from 1985 census USBOC 1988 USBOC 1988 Korea, Peoplo's U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 190 revision U.N. 10 revision Dam. Rep. of Korea, lap. Of Official eat., Economic Planning Based on CBR from Continuous U.N. 1990 revision Board 1968 Seapting Survey 1989 Kuwait UIIPVSR 4/87 (OfficisL est.) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Lao People's U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Dam. Rlp. INTROOUCTuON LX)4N Country, Most recent economy, or Infant moetality, 196-90 Age-sex structure, 1985 contraceptive prevasence territory UNPVSR 10/68 (official est.) U.N. 1988 revision -- German Dam. Rep. Ewuo.tat 1989 Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1988 Germny, Federal Rep. of U.N. 1990 revision Blsed on 1970 census DHS 1988 Ghana Gibraltar UNPVSR 10/89 (official *t.) Eurostat 1989 - Greece Greenland Bank st. Bank est. U.N. 1990 Grenada U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision U.N. 1990 Guadeloupe US40C 1966 Bank est. - Guam U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision DHS 1997 Guatemala U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision IPPF Guinea Bank st. Bank est. IPPF Guinea-Bissau U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Pop. Ref. Bureau 1990 Guyan U.N. 196 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross et at. 1988 Naiti NoLy See U.N. 1990 revIsion U.N. 19 revision Ross at at. 1988 Honduras UNPVSR 10/89 (official ast.) U.N. 1988 revision Ross at *L. 1988 Hong Kong UNYWSI 10/88 (offfcial ast.) 1980 census CPS 1986 Nungary UNPVSR 10/89 (official st.) U.N. 1988 revision Iceland U.N. 1990 revision Bamed on 1981 census Ross at aL. 1988 India Based on ONS 1987 OfficiaL est., Biro Pus.t DNS 1987 Indonesia Statistik 1988 lank st. Bank est. Ross at aL. 1988 Iran, Islamic Rep. of U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross et at. 1988 Iraq Eurostat 19j19 Eurostat 1989 Pop. Ref. Bureau 1990 Ireland Isle of Man UNPVSR 10/89 (official est.) U.N. 1988 revision -- Israel Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1988 Italy oased on UIPVSR 1/88 U.N. 1988 revision CPS 1989 Jamaica U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision CPS 1986 Japan Johnston Island U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross at aL. 1988 Jordan (East lank) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision -- KBanukhe De. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision DNS 1989 Kenya USBOC 1988 Bank est. - Kiribati U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision -- Korea, People's Dem. Rep. of U.N. 990 revision U.N. 1988 revision CPS 1985 Korea, Rep. Of Based on official 1986 est. U.N. 1988 revision -- Kuwait U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 r. vision -- Lao People's Dem. Rep. LXXav IN 1dAo Al Countinu d) Country, econom, or territory Total populaton, mid-1965 Total fertility, 19M-90 Life expectancy, 1965-90 L b non U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Lesotho atnk projection from 1966 census Eased on UFS 1977 WFS 1977 Liberia U.N. 1990 revision OHS 196 Iank est. Libya U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Llechtenstein UNPVSU 1/87 (Official est.) LuxJedourg lurostat 1989 EurostAt 1989 Eurostat 1989 "tcoo UNPVYS 4;87 (offieial est.) Eased on CON, UNPMSI 10/89 Based on Pop. Ref. Bureau 1988 (official est.) Madagasear UNPVSP 10/89 (official est.) Eases on 1960 survey Easd on 1980 and 1984 surveys Malass Iank projection from 1967 nonsus Eased on 1977 census U.N. 1990 revision Malaysia Official at., Dept. of Based on CU, UNPVSR 10/89 U.N. 1990 revision Statistics 1967 (official st.) Naldives Bank projection from 1965 cenus Eased on official CIA for US=oc 1966 1960-05 ali Bank projection from 1967 census OHS 1987 Basd on 1960-61 survey and 1976 cenus lta U.N. 1990 revision Based on CIR, UNPVS 10/89 U.N. 1990 revision (officiat est.) Nartinle U.N. 1990 revision Based on official CIO U.N. 1990 revision Mauritania U.N. 1990 -evision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Mauritiue UNPVSI 4/67 (official est.) U.N. 1990 revision Eased on CDR, UMPVSR 7/86 (official at.) Mexico UNPVSR 4/87 (official est.) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Midway Islands sexd on UNPVSR 4/90 Monaco UNPVSR 1/67 (officilt est.) Mongolia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Montearrat UNDY 1966 Eased on UNPVSR 1/87 Eased on CDR, UNPVSR 1/87 Norocco Bank projection from 1909 Based on DNS 1967 U.N. 1990 revision official est. Mozazique Bank projection from 1980 census Bank est. Eased on official CDR Myiv*-r U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 199 revision Namibia Bank projoction from unpublished U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision 5/a1 cesus Nauru Basod on UNPVSR 4/90 Nepal Bank est. based on official ast. Eased on governmn t survey U.N. 1990 reviJion Notherlands surostat 1909 Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1990 revision Notherlndo Bank est. based on adjusted 1971 Eased on USBOC 1967 Eased on US8OC 1987 Antills and 1961 censuss (exel. Arube) New Caledonio Bank set. based on 193 ceonsus USROC 1966 USBOC 1988 rnd 6/86 official est. Now Zoeland Bank projection from official Eased on official *st., Official U.N. 1990 revision 3/65 *et. Yearbook 1987-88 Nicoragus U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Niger Bank projection from 1986 census U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 190 revision Migerif Bank proj etion from official Based on DNS result for Ondo U.N. 1990 revision dots State Niue UNPVSR 1/67 (official est.) INTROoUCTION LXXV Country, fMet recent eonosy, or Infant owtality, I96590 Age*sex structure, 196 contraceptive preval,nce territory U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 19 revision Rose St at. 1986 Lebanon U.N. 1990 roviefon U.N. 19M revision WFS 1977 Lesotho SMnk et. U.N. 196 revision ONS 1966 Liberia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1968 revision -- Libyo Liechtenstein Euroetat 1969 Eurostat 1989 -- Luxowbourg S oed on Pop. Ref. Bureeu 1966 lank *st. MaCoa U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Madagascar U.N. 1990 revision lank ct. U.N. 198 Malawi U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 196 revision Room ct al. 1968 MaLovio ESCM Stat. Yerbook for Asia Sank St. M-ldivyes and the Paefie 1966 U.N. 1990 revision Sank *st. OHS 1967 Roli U.N. 196 revision U.N. 198 revision -N M ta U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 196 revision lces at at. 19 Martinique U.N. 1990 rovision Sank est. urS 19J1 Mauritania U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1V8 revision CPS 1965 Mauritius U.N. 1968 rovision U.N. 1M revision OHS 1967 iexico Midway Islands Monaco U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 198 revision - Mongolia Sank projection Eased on UNOY 19U4 U.N. 1968 Monterrat Basd on ONS 1987 U.N. 196 revision OHS 1987 Morocco U.h. 1990 revision U.N. 1968 revision Mozaeb que U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 196 revision Ross et at. 198t Myarwr U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1968 revision - Namibia L.uru GoverwmInt Survey Sank est. Ross et L. 198 Nepal Eurootat 1969 Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1968 Netherliads Easod on USSOC 1987 Based on UNDY 1960 - Netherlands Ant lies USOC 198 Sa* et. New Caledonia U.m. 1990 revision U.m. 19 revision U.N. 1988 New ZeaLan U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 198 revision Ross et L. 198 Nicaregu U.N. 1990 revision Based on 1977 de jure poputation IPPF Niger U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 16 revision OHS 1986-87 for Ondo State Nigoerf Niue LXXM INTRODUCTION ale A1 (continued) ountry, .ronn, or erritory Total population, mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985-90 Life expectancy, 1985-90 orway UNPVSR 7/86 (official est.) Based on CBR, UNPVSR 10/88 U.N. 1990 revision (official est.) omn U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision akistan lank projection from 1981 census Bank est. Bank est. en m U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision apus New CGirne U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Paraguay U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Peru lank projection from adjusted Projected from Bank assessment Projected !rom Bank assessment for 1981 census for 1980-85 1980-85 Phitliwppns Bank projection from adjusted Bank est. based on CBR Bank oSL. 1960 census itcnirn Island Bank est. based on 12/89 census Polnd UWPVSR 7/86 (officiaL est.) U.W. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Portugal Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 Puerto Rico UNOY 1986 (officiaL est.) Based on CBR U.N. 1990 revision Qatar Sank est. based on 1986 census U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Rdunion U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N 1990 revision Ro~nia UNPVSR 10/89 (official est.) U.W. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision ewanda Bank est. Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision son harino UNPVSR 1/87 (OfficiaL estL ) -e Sob Tomd and UNPVSR 10/89 (officiaL est.) Bank est. Bank est. Principe Saudi Arabia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 r*vi*ion U.W. 1990 revision _negal Bank projection from 1988 census DHS 1986 Based on country life table by Abank, D. (unpubl. manuscript) zychelles UNPVSR 4/87 (officiaL est.) Bank est. Bank est. ierra Leone Bank projection from 12/85 census Based on 1974 census Bank est. ingapore UNPVSR 6/86 (official est.) Based on CSR, UNPVSR 1/89 U.N. 1990 revision (official est.) clomon Islands Bank p ojection from 1986 census USBOC 1988 Based on official 1980-84 est., Statistical Bulletin, Honiara -mlmia Bank projection from adjusted Bank est. Bank est. 1975 cansus auth Africa U.N. 1"99 revision U.N. 1990 revision .N. 99C revision Spain Eurostat 1989 Based on Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1990 revision ri Lanka UhPVSR 4/87 (official est.) Brsed on DHS 1987 U.N. 1990 revision t. HeLena UNPVSR 1/89 (official est.), incl. Ascencfon and Tristan da Cunha t. Kitts and Official est., Statistics office, Based on official CBR, Statistics Based on official CDR, Statistics Nevis Platning Unit Office, Planning Unit Office, Planning Unit t. Lucia UNPVSR 7/66 (official est.) Based on official CBR Based on official COR t. Pierre and UWPVSR 1'87 (Official est.) Miquelon t. Vincent nd Bank est. from adjusted 1980 Based on UNFVSR 10/89 Based on CDR, UNPVSR 10/89 the Grenadines census wnd official 1988 est. Sudan U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision INThCOLCT1ON LXXvI Country, Most recent aconmy, or Infant mortatity, 198-90 Ago-sox structure, 1985 contraceptive prevalence territory UNPVSR 10/89 (offIeial est.) U.N. 1988 revision U. . 1988 Norway U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Owmn U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. CPS 1984485 Pakistan U.M. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross St e.l 1988 Pan am ESCUA Stat. Yearbook for Asia U.N. 1988 revision Pop, Ref. Bureau 1990 Papua New Guinea nd the Paeffic 1968 U.N. 1990 revisIon U.N. 1988 revision Ross at at. 1988 Paraguay U.N. 1990 ravlalon U.N. 1988 revision OHS 1986 Peru U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision CPS 1986 PhilIppines Pltcalrn Island UNPVSi 10/88 (official est.) U.N. 1988 revision U. . 1988 Poland Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1988 Portugal UWPVSI 10/89 U.N. 1988 revision Aess St at. 198 Puerto Rico U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision - Octcr U.N. 1990 revisIon U.N. 1988 revision Reunion Based on officiat est. U.N. 1988 revision U.N. 1988 Romwnia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross et aL. 1988 Rwanda San Marino 8Snk est. Bank est. Sa TomT and Principe U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Saudi Arabia Bnk est. Official est. DHS 1986 SenegcL UNPVSR 7/1988 Based on UNDY 1984 Seychelles U.N. 1990 ravislon Bank .st Ross et cL. 1988 SIerra Leon UWPVSR 1/89 (officlat est.) U.N. 1988 revision Ross at at. 1988 Singapore Bank est. Bank est. Pop. Ref. Bureau 1988 SoLomon Islands U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Ross St aL. 1988 Somatia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 19U8 revision U.N. 1988 South Africa Based on Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1988 Spain Based on DHS 1987 U N. 1988 revision OHS 1987 Sri Lanka St. Helena Based on official MR, StatistIcs Based or 1980 census U.N. 1988 St. KItts and Office, Plaaning Unit Nevis Based on officiel eat. Based on 1980 census U.N. 198 St. Lucia St. Pierre and Niquelon UNPVSR 10/89 Based on UNDY 1983 U.N. 1988 St. Vincent and the Granadines U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision WFS 1979 Sudan Table Al (cntinued) Conmtry, econoWy or territory Total population, mid-1965 Total fortility, 195-90 Life expectancy, 1M5-9 Surirnm Official est., Central Sureau of laced on officiaL CM, Central aosd on official CDR, Central Civil Affairs Bureau of Civit Affairs Bureau of Civil Affairs Swaziland U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision S-eden UNPVSh 4/87 (official est.) acsed on CER, UNPVSR 10/89 U.N. 1990 revision (officiat et.) Switzerland UNPYS 4/87 (official ect.) Based on CSR, UNPVSR 10/89 U.N. 1990 revision (official est.) Syrian Arab Rep. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Taiwan, China Base on offieial est., Stat. Baeed on CR, Taiwan Stat. DOta Based on CDR Taiwn Stat. Data Data ook 1967 look 1957 Book 1967 Tan4znia Bank projection from 1978 and Sank ast. Bank est. 19" censs Thailand Official est., National Econ. U.N. 190 revision Based on government projection, and So. Devlopment Board. 1985 1965 Togo Bank projection from 1961 census OHS ON 7 U.N. 1990 revision Toketou Islands BSed on UNPVSR 4/90 Tongs Bank projection from 1984 USIOC 1968 Sank est. mini -csnsu4 Trinidd nd U.N. 1990 revision lased on OHS 1967 U.N. 1990 revisian Tobao Tunisca UNPSMt 1/88 (official cst.) Based on OHS 1966 U.N. 1990 revision Turkey Official est. Based on Population and Health U.N. 1990 revision Survey, 1968 Turks and Caicos UNPVS4 1/87 (Official est.) Istands Tuvalu Based on UNPVSR 4/90 Ugand Official est. OHS 1988/69 lank est. United Arab U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Emirates United Kingdom Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1990 revision United States of UNPVSR 7/86 (official est.) lased on CBR (official est.) U.N. 190 revision America Uruguay Official est. of 198S census lasee on official est. from 198S Based on 1965 census cenus U.S.S.R. Sank projection from 1989 census lased on Nonnier 1988 U.N. 1990 revision Vanuatu Official set., Stat. Office, USBOC 1988 Bank est. 1988 Venezuela UNPVSR 1/87 (official est.) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Viet aM U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Eased on Sank report Virgin Islands USIOC 1905 Based on CBR from USIOC 1987 Based on CDR, UHPVSR 10/89 (U.S.) (officiat est.) Wake Island Bsed on UNPVSR 4/90 Wallis and Based on UNPVSR 4/90 Futuna West Bank lank est. Based on CUR from West Bank Data Sank est. Base Project 1987 Western Sahara Based on UWPVSR 4/90 INTroGucTION LXXIX Country, NMet recent eonxy, or Infant wortality 1905M90 Age-sex structuro, 1985 contraceptive prevatlnce territory Bank projection U.N. 19U revision - Surin _ U.N. 1990 revision SBk est. Pop. Ref. Bureau 1990 Swaziland UNPVSN 10/6U (official est.) U.N. 1968 revision U.N. 1968 Sweden WIPYIR 10/P9 (official oet.) U.N. 19 revision U.N. 1966 Switzerlnd U.N. 19O revision U.N. 19 revision IfS 1976 Syrian Arab Rep. Bad on U-lOC 1967 Taiwan Stt. Date Book 1967 Ross et al. 19 Taiwan, Chin. nk oot. Bnk est. Roes at el. 1966 Tanzania Based on OD$ 1967 U.N. 1966 revision DNS 1967 Thailand U.N. 1990 revieon Onk est. DNA 19U6 Togo Tok*lau lslands USUOC 191 Bnk est. - Toa U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1966 revision DSN 1967 Trinided and Tobogo Based on DM 1906 U.N. 1968 revision DhS 196 Tunisia Based on Popultion w* HeaLth U.N. 1966 revision Fertility and Health Survey 1968 Turkey Survey 1966 Turks and Caicos IstIes Tuvalu U.N. 1990 revision Su tet. DhS 1986-89 Uganda U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1968 revision - United Arab E irate Eurostat 1969 Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1988 United Kingdom UNPYSS 10/89 (official est.) U.N. 1968 revision Ross et *.1 19 United States of America U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1968 revision -- Uruguay sum and Pressat 1987 U.N. 196 revision - U.S.S.R. Based on official 1960.64 *t. But* st. Pop. Ref. Bureau 1990 Vanuatu U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1966 revision UFS 1977 Venzue la Based on But study U.N. 1966 revision Ross et al. 1966 Viet Nam ased on UNPVSR 10/69 Based on 1980 census Virgin lslands (U.S.) Wake Island Wallis and Futuna B*t est. Bunk est. West Batnk W.etern Sahara LXXX INouclON Toft Al (continued) Country, colnomm, or territory Total popultion, mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985-90 Life expectancy, 1985-90 West.,r lSamoa Bon projection from prelim. Based on prelim. 1986 census lased on CR, ESCWA Stat. Yearbook 1966 census for Asia and the Pacific 1988 Yemn, Peoples Bon* projection bosed on 1988 U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision De. Rep. of census Yemn Arab Rep. mani projection from adjusted Based on Sank mission report 1989 lased on lank mission report 1989 1986 census Yugoslovia UNPVSR 4/87 (official est.) lased on CBR, UNPVSR 10/88 Based on CDR, UNPVSR 10!88 (officiat est.) (official est.) Zaire U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 rovision U.N. 1990 revision Zambia tank projection from 1980 census lased on Bank sector report Blsed on Bank sector report and officiat 1988 *St. Ziabobse 8ank projection from 1982 census DHS 1988 DNS 1988 Notes: When a source for en estimate is directly cited (e.g., UNPVSR 7/86), the estimate is taken as is from that pubtication. An estimate "based on" a source is not reported in that publication but derived from data contained in it. When a source is given for a fertility or mortality estimate prior to 1985-90, the corresponding 1985-90 estimate is a projection from the earlier estimate. Citations for the main documents referred to here (usually by abbreviations) are in the list of references. Not applcable. No estimates were used because no projections were made for these smalL countries. INTmOOUCfnON Lxxxi Country, Most recent economy, or Infant nortsllty, 1965-90 Age-sex structure, 1985 contraceptive prevalence territory ESC%A Stat. Yearbook for Asia Based on 1986 census Pop. Ref. Bureau 1990 Western Samoa and the Pacific 196 U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Yeen, People's Dem. Rap. of Based on Sank mission report 1989 Bank est. WFS 1979 Yemen Arab Rep. UkPVSA 10/ U (official est.) U.N. 1988 revision U.N. 1988 YugosLavia U.N. 1988 revIsion U.N. 1988 revision IRD/Westinghouse 1984 Zaire U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross et at. 1988 Zambia DNS 196 Bank est. DHS 1988 Ziwbabwe CBR Crude birth rate CDR Crude death rate DHS Demographic and Health Survey INR Infant mortality rate TFR Total fertility rate UNOY United Nations, Demographic Yearbook (year is given in the table) UhPVSR UnitAd Nations, PoEutstion and Vital Statistics Recort (month and year are given in table) USBOC U.S. Bureau of the Censw (1985; Jamison, Johnson, and Engels, 1987) WFS World Fertility Survey LxxxI INnROOucTiON PrAjea Meoulty Motlity is projected by extrapolating recent trends in male life expectancy, female life expectancy, and infant mortality and applying appropriate model life tables. The procedure is identical to that used last year, except that life expectancy is allowed to reach higher levels in the long rn. We explain this change and then discuss the elements of the procedure. Analysis of recent trends that provides some empirical basis for the procedure is reported by Bulatao and Bos (1989), who also provide further details. Maximum male and female life expectancies are assumed to be 83.3 and 90 years, respectively, 7.5 years higher in each case than the levels used last year. The previous maxima are berely above current levels for the lowest-mortality countries. Life expectancy in Japan, for instance, is now estimated at 75.6 years for males and 81.4 years for females. Some research (discussed in Bulatao and Bos 1989) suggests that much higher life expectancies are theoretically attainable, but the issue is still controversial. Since these projections cover almost 200 years, limiting life expectancy to current maximum levels did not seem appropriate. Using higher life expectancies was facilitated by the recent extension of the Coale-Demeny life tables (Coale and Cuo 1990), though the extended tables still needed further extension. Future trends in life expectancy. Life expectancy at birth et by sex is projected from year 0 to year t using a logistic function over time of the form et = k0 + k / (I + exp [logit(, ) + rt]}, with logit(e.) = loL [(ko + k - eo) / (ej - ko'l. The minima (ko) for the logistic functions for both sexes are assumed to be 20 years, and the maxima (X0 + k) are assumed to be 90 years for females and 83.3 years for males. This allows the function to rise most rapidly from a level of SC years or so and increase more slowly at higher as well as lower levels. However, the key parameter is the rate of change (r). This is allowed to vary across countries, and for a given country to vary over time. The rate of change (r,) for the first quinquennium (1985-90) is estimated from the rate of change in the previous quinquennium (ro) aud from the female secondary enrolment ratio (so), using the equations r; - .00379 + .723 ro - .000254 S for female., and r, = .01 159 + .885 ro - .000318 so for males. Percent urban is used in a few cases where secondary enrollment is not available; in fewer cases still the rate of change in the previous decade is used instead of the rate of change in the previous quinquennium, when the latter appears to have been affected by exceptional circumstances (see Bulatao and Bos 1989). Limits are imposed on the rate of change for the firs quinquennium (and for all other quinquennia), such that it cannot be greater than -.017 (which would give slow mortality decline) or less than -.053 (which would give rapid mortality decline). For the second quinquennium, the rate of change is estimated as a function of the rate of change for the first quinquennium: r2 - -0.007 + 0.7 r,. The rate of change for the third quinquennium is estimated from the rate of change for the second INKTOoUanOt LXXw Table AZ Assuimd Anmus Incre_ents to Life Expeetncy Initial Mates FamLes Life tancy Minima Medium M"xima Minima Mdi Max xi mm 40 0.14 0.34 0.55 0.14 0.36 0.58 45 0.15 0.38 0.61 0.16 0.40 0.65 50 0.16 0.39 n.63 0.17 0.43 0.69 55 0.16 0.39 0.62 0.17 0.44 0.70 60 0.15 0.37 0.59 0.17 0.43 0.66 65 0.13 0.32 0.52 0.16 0.40 0.69 70 0.10 0.26 0.'2 0.14 0.36 0.57 75 0.07 0.18 0.28 0.12 0.27 0.47 80 0.03 0.08 0.12 0.09 0.21 0.34 as -- -- 0.05 0.11 0.18 not applicoble. qui'quewnium in the same manner. This equation allows rates of change to converge toward the uniform pattern imposed for subsequent quinquennia. For these subsequent quinquennia for all countries, the rate of change in life expectancy is constant at -.035 for both sexes. At this rate, the annual increments to life expectancy vary by initial levels as indicated by the medium patterns in Table A2. Minimum and maximum increments oor.esponding to the slow and rapid limits imposed on rates of change in the first three quinquennia ae also shown. Future trends in infant mortality. Infant mortality is projected using a similar logistic fAnction. The rate of cbange for each of the first three quinquennia is obtained from the equation r, - .0275 + .5 r,., with the restriction that this rate must be in the interval [.024, .130]. These limits provide schedules of minimum and maximum annual decrements to infant mortality, varying by the initial rate, shown in Table A3. A set of medium decrements is also provided, repressnting the typical schedule of Tabte A3 Ass,med Annual Decrements to Infant "ortaLity Rate Initial infant mortality rote Minimua Medium Maxima 150 0.83 2.08 4.02 140 0.92 2.32 4.47 130 1.00 2.50 4.81 120 1.13 2.63 5.03 110 1.16 2.69 5.15 100 1.16 2.71 5.16 90 1.14 2.66 5.07 80 1.10 2.56 4.86 70 1.03 2.41 4.56 60 0.93 2.20 4.16 SO 0.81 1.94 3.65 40 0.67 1.62 3.05 30 0.50 .26 2.35 20 0.31 0.84 1.36 10 0.09 0.36 0.68 LXXXIV INTRODUCTION improvements toward which rates of change converge when the preceding equation is applied sucoemively. A minimum attaitiable level of infant mortality of 3 per thousand was used, consistent with the higher life expectancies allowed, instead of the previously assumed 6 per thousand. Selectian of life rables. Those life tables are selected from the Coale-Demeny-Guo models (Coale and Demeny 1983; Coale and Guo 1990) that provide the projected life expectancy and infant mortality rates for the first three quinquennia. First, a level of the life tables is chosen to give the desired infant mortality rate (an interpolated table is constructed if necessa.y). Mortality rates up to age 14 are taken from this life tatle. Second, another level of the life tables is chosen to give rates for ages 15 and older such that the desired level of life expectancy is obtained. Among the four Coale-Demeny-Guo families (No,rth, South, East, and West), that family is chosen which minimizes the divergence between the two chosen levels. yond the first three quinquennia, the procedure is simpler. Life expectancy is piqojc*d to 2025-30, 2050-55, and 2100-05 as described above and used in selecting levels of the West family. The projection program used, PROJ3L (Hill 1990), is allowed to interpolate linearly across survivorship rates for intervening periods, to facilitate a smooth transition across life table families where this is necessary. No specific attempt is made in these projections to incorporate mortality due to infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The 1IV epidemic could have important effects on mortality in particular countries. However data are still too scant, and projection models sufficiently controversial, to allow incorporation of demographic effects into worldwide projections. Mortality from HIV infection should be considered an extraneous factor so far neglected in this work. Comparison with other mortality projections. Figures Al and A2 compare assumed trends in different projection exercises. Because judgments for individual countries differ, the current base estimates of life expectancy are slightly higher than those assumed by the U.N. An important result of the higher maxima for life expectancy is the marked divergence between the end points of last year's and the curreDt mortality projections. For less developed countries, the current path is virtually identical to that of the U.N. For more developed countries, the current trend is well above last year's: by 2020-25 life expectancy is four years above last year's estimate. Projecing Fenility Future totzl fertility trends are specified by selecting a year when the net reproduction rate reacLes unity, i.e., when the average woman's fertility results in exactly replacing herself. (In this replacement y^ar, the net reproduction rate must equal 1.) The pace at which fertility avproaches replacement level varies across stages of the fertility transition. After explaining how stages are distinguished, we discuss procedures for determiiuing total fertility trends in the pretransition stage, wben fertility is high and sustained fertility declin- has not started; the transition stage, when fertility is high tc medium and sustained fertility decline is in progress; and the late-transition and posttrAnsition stage. We then discuss what age-specific patterns of fertility were appli'd and make comparisons with other projections. For curaent purposes, a fertility transition is assumed to have started if a cou. try has experienced a drop in total fertility )f at least 0.5 points over any five-year peiod, or if total fertility is already below 4-5 after a more gradual decline (Bulatao and Elwan 1985). The pretransition stage is the stage before any such decline is evident. The late-transition and posttransition stage is defined by a otal fertility rate one point above replacement level (about 3.15) or lower. INTROOUCTION LXXXV Fgum Al Asumed Life Expectancy Figure A2 Assumed Life Expectancy Trend, Len Developed Countres, and Trend, More Developed Countres, and U.N and Prevows World Bank Trends U.N. and Previous World Bank Trends 72 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~83 - 71- -2-, 70 -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~9- 661 65 - 62 7 SI30 us9-Ig.05 ,02O0 2 20005 on io 15 M2ts 2020-2 1 tsss. 19.5 1995-^ 20 805 25-10 2010.15 2015-20 20&2.5 Countries in the pretransition stage are assumed to start a fertility transition in the quinquennium after combined male and female life expectanc.y reaches 50 years, but in no case later than 2005. This life expectancy threshold is slightly lower than the threshold of 53 years previousl) shown to be a universal precondition, though not a sufficient condition, for the start of fertility transition (Bulatao and Elwan 1985). Until a transition starts, total fertility is assumed to be constant. The one exception is where sterility is a significant factor; sterility is then assumed to decline linearly to 6 percent over three quinquennia, with each percentage point drop in sterility raising total fertility by 0. 11 points (Frank 1983). In the transition stage, the rate of fertility decline is based on the rate in the preceding quinquennium, assuming transition had already started in that period. With previous annual change represented by Am, annual change during the transition is set at (-.05 + .5 ATM). However, limits are set on this change: it must be at least -.073 points and at most -.210 points, which may be taken to define slow and rapid fertility decline. (Previous analysis in Bulatao and Elwan 1985 defined rapid decline as an annual total fertility change of -.2164 points, which is consistent.) If the formula does not apply because transition has just started, -n average annual decline in total fertility of 0.102 points is imposed. Figure A3 shows the patterns of fertility decline implied by this average decline and by the slow and rapid limits. In the early part of the transition stage, the sterility adjustment is applied if appropriate to raise total fertility slightly. In the late-transition and posttransition stage, fertility approaches replacement level, either from slightly above or slightlv below it. Four alternative patterns, represented in Figure A4, Pre applied in this stage. *eplw Generally, a geometric function is imposed on total fertility decline from one point above replacerent level to replacement level, with this decline assumed to take 15 years. uaxxx INTROOUGTBa fl-ww 43 Asuwned Medium Trend and Alternaeve Slow and Rapid Trends in Total Fertility During the Ferdlity Transition F8ue A4 Assud Trends in Total Ferality at the End of the Ferrity TramitioR SlOgOO_OS 19O_-aS 2000-0 2010- 1S 20O- 25 202- #:gur AS Percentage of Total Fem'irty Asrwgned to Different Ages, by Level of Total Fer'lity mou 245 a.0 _-SO so-so 0 5-290 m0-o moms-a 40-44 4m-49 INTRooucTnoN uLXXvU * Where total fertility h.- shown unusually slow decline, it is assumed to take 20 rather ta 15 yea for total fertility to fall one point to replacement. * Where, toward the end of a fertility transition, total fertility is still recording rapid declines even though it is close to or even below replacement level (2.25 to 1.75), it is assumed to fall further for one period, generally going below replacement, to stay constant in the next period, and then to return to replacement. * Where the transition has been completed and total fertility is below replacement, it is assumed to stay at the current level for two quinquennia, and then to return gradually to replacement, along a linear path, by 2030. In applying late-transition procedures, the level of total fertility that provides replacement is approximated by a quadratic formula based on female life expectancy (e(fn) in the replacement year: TFRmm. I = 6.702 - .1l07 e;r) + .0006592 e(f)2. The replacement year is first approximated in order to determine life expectancy and then calculated given this formula and whichever pattern of fertility change above is appropriate. For all stages of fertility tiansition, the age pattern of fertility is determined in the same fashion, depending on the level u*' total fertility (Figure AS). Two basic schedules of age-specific fertility are defined: for total (ertility levels greater than six and for total fertility levels of three and lower. In between, age pattemns are obtained by interpolation between the two schedules. At a total fertility level of six, a greater proportion of births are at younger and older ages of the reproductive span, and the mean age of childbearing is 28.9 years. At a total fertility level of three, births are concentrated in a narrower band of ages, and the mean age of childbearing is 28.0. The only period Fiure A6 Assumed Total Fernlity Trend, Figure A7 Assumed Total Fernlity Trend, Less Developed Countres, and U.N. More Developed Counnes, and U.N. and Previous World Bank Trends and Previous World Bank Trends 20* 60 --1 . 3 ,,, 33.. F MD 5 D Dtt ?DliPO ^ g % tXD 0 ?iF8D tD$t 3tt9 32-2 20- HAE g- 2~~~~~~~~~~' 26~~~~~~~~~~~~~ iUj ~ aa// i 4 11 A~-N XNf/ 23-). ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ XuoXVI INTOROUC1ON in which me model patterns are not applied is the base period, for which current or recent fertility data an used. These procedures were developed from analysis of total fertility trends in cross-national data (see Bos and Bulatao 1989). Their application results in only minor deviations from fertility trends projected in last year. Fertility trends from the current and last year's projections and the U.N. projections are compared in Figures A6 and A7 for low developed countries and more developed countries. Bank fertility projections show little change from last year, with the current projection for low developed countries being only slightly slower until around 2025. The U.N. projects higher levels of fertility for low developed countries between 1990 and 2005, and lower levels thereafter. The U.N. and Bank projections differ more for more developed countries trends. The U.N. projects that fertility, now below replacement level for these countries as a whole, will not fall much further but will return to replacement level more slowly than in the current projections. Prviedln Migrwtox Estimates of future net migrants by quinquennium up to the year 2000 are those prepared by Arnold (1989) as part of an examination of data and sources, with subsequent minor revisions. These estimates are strongly affected by official policies and plans in the major receiving countries. The figures were designed to total zero in each quinquennium for the whole world. After the year 2000, the number of net migrants is assumed to approach zero linearly in each country, at the estimated rate of change in their number from the period 1990-95 to the period 1995-2000, or at a rate that would make their number zero by 2025-30, whichever rate is faster. For these later periods, a zero total for worldwide net international migration was obtained by adjusting initial estimates of net migats in three major receiving countries--the United States, Australia, and Canada--upward or downwrd as necessary by a proportion constant across these countries, but varying by quinquennium. These adjustments were of I or 2 percent for the earlier periods, negligible compared to the volume of migration assumed for these countries, but were up to 10 percent for '-ter periods. The age-sex distributions of migrants are determined rrom alternative models based on their sex ratios. If migration is heavily male, migrants are assumed to be conceitrated in the age group 15-29, with few children and elderLy. If migration is more balanced oetween males and females, proportionally more migrants are assumed to be children and elderly (Hill 1990). REFERENCES Arnold, Fred. 1989. Revised estimates and projections of international migration. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Papers, No. 275. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bour-eois-Pichat, Jean. 1952. Essai sur !la mortalite biologique de l'homme. Population 7(3) Bourgeois-Pichat, Jean. 1978. Future outlook for mortality decline in the world. Population BuUetin of the United Nations. 11: 12-41. Bos, Eduard, and Rodolfo A. Bulatao. 1989. Projecting fertility for all co; ntries. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Pape1s. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Blum, Alaiim, and Roland Pressat. 1987. Une nouvelle table de mortalite pour l'URSS (1984-1985). Population 42(6):843-862. Bultac, Rodol;o A., and Eduard Bos, with Patience VW. Stephens and My T. Vu 1989. Prc,ecting mortality for all countries. Policy, Planning, and Research VWorking Papers. 'Nashington, D.C.: World Bank. Bulatao, Rodolfo A., Eduard Bos, Patience Stephens and My T. Vu 1990. World Population Projections. 1985L90 Edision. Jobns Hopkins University Press. Baltimore Maryland. Bulatw, Rodolfo A., and Ann Elwan. 198S5. Fertility and mortality transition: Patterns, projections, and interdependence. World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 681. INThooucTnoN LXXXIX Washington, D.C. Coale, Ansley J., and Paul Demeny, with Barbara Vaughan. 1983. Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations. 2nd ed. New York: Academic Press. Coale, Ansley J., and Guang Guo. 1989. Revised regional model life tables at very low levels of mortality. Population Index 55(4), pp 613-643. Eurostat. 1989. Denographic Statistics. Luxembourg: Statistical Office of the European Communities. Hill, Kenneth. 1990. Proj3S: A Computer Program for Population Projections Diskettes and Reference Guide. Washington, D.C. World Bank. Jamison, Ellen, Peter D. Johnson, and Richard A. Engels. 1987. World Population Profile: 1987. Washington, D.C.: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Monnicr, Alain. 1988. "La conjoncture demographique: L'Europe et les pays developpes d'outre- mer," Population 43(4-S):893-904. Shryock, Henry S., Jacob S. Siegel and Associates. 1975. The Methods and Materials of Demography. Washington, D.C.: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. 1984. Popultion and Vital Statistics Report: 1984 Special Supplement. New York: United Nations. United Nations. Department of International Economic :nd Social Affairs. 1988. Mortality of Children Under Age 5: World Estimates and Projections, 1950-2025.. New York: United Nations. United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. 1989. Prospects of World Urbanization 1988. New York: United Nations. United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. 1990. World Population Prospects 1990. New York: United Nations. United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Various years. Demographic Yearbook. New York: United Nations. United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Various years. Population and Vital Statistics Report. New York: United Nations. U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1983. World Population 1983--Recent Demographic Estimates for the Countries and Regions of the World. Washington, D.C. U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1985. World Population: Recent Demographic Estimates for the Countries and Regions of the World. Washington, D.C. World Bank. 1990. World Development Report 1990. New York: Oxford University Press. Zachariah, K. C., and My T. Vu. 1988. World Population Projections: 1987-88 Edition. Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press. DETAILED POPULATION PROJECTIONS WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS WORLD 1. Estimates and Projections DP. Growth *o *0 qs Towr IpuLti ratio Period rate cm CD TFt Itais F_mLm I x1000 1965 4842303 65.3 1985-89 1.74 27.1 9.7 3.41 63.0 66.7 70 97 1990 5281929 62.9 1990-94 1.65 25.5 9.0 3.21 64.2 68.1 63 86 1995 5735527 62.4 1W5-99 1.53 23.8 8.5 3.02 65.5 69.6 56 76 2000 6191710 60.8 2000-04 1.43 22.3 8.0 2.89 66.8 71.1 49 66 2005 6651503 58.2 2005-09 1.33 21.2 7.8 2.77 67.7 72.1 44 60 2010 71091S6 5S.6 2010-14 1.25 20.2 7.7 2.65 68.7 73.2 39 53 2015 7567055 54.3 2014-19 1.18 19.4 7.6 2.56 69.7 74.4 34 46 2020 8026087 54.5 2020-24 1.10 18.5 7.5 2.48 70.8 75.7 29 38 2025 8479143 54.9 2025-49 0.79 15.9 8.1 2.24 73.6 78.9 18 23 2050 10318509 56.7 2050-74 0.41 13.5 9.5 2.J8 77.0 82.7 8 10 2075 11433912 62.1 2075-99 0.21 12.5 10.5 2.06 79.2 85.3 5 6 2100 12036362 (A.3 2100-24 0.10 12.0 11.1 2.06 81.1 87.5 3 4 212S 12336567 71.4 2125-49 0.05 11.8 11.4 2.06 81.8 88.5 2 3 2150 12484984 72.9 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 ! ; -1l 75 + 70-74 65.69 55.59 >2 zB 1 ~~~50-541 2 su ! ~~~~45-49 i @91 SB 1 ~~40-44 122 E2XX EBaS ! ~35-39| 5 BE 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 _1 1 ~~~~5-9b1 2 _ 1 ~~~~~~0-4 ! 5 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 AST AFICA (S *1 EAST ACQ'CA '5 3%) 45T APRICA (4 SW) 9uIA 00 < \ | \ IE5T IA CA C7 34) N 'C1 ICA CS ) \ \ I 5 A 051 a) / \\ \ | \ ~~~~ESE ASIA t33 7%) SVEST ASIA C3 \ moprm AfllCA C2 7) O OCEANIA COD \ ) ') kAA , CA Co 1%) I.AC (S 4*) j . AS:,CA C3 M) \ \ ,/ LLAC Cs'm / 1. US4 \ / RA M 10 O * JSP AS IA C2 55) XSJTw *$ A,22 55) 2 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1. Estimates and Projections 0". Growth SO 00 rt vear putatiun ratio Pertid rate cm cm TFR Holm Finale R X1000 1965 3665423 70.6 1985-89 2.10 30.9 9.7 3.89 60.8 63.2 78 109 1990 4070968 67.1 1990-94 1.97 28.9 9.0 3.58 62.2 64.9 70 96 1995 492598 65.8 1995-99 1.81 26.6 8.3 3.31 63.6 66.6 62 84 2000 4919089 63.6 2000-04 1.68 24.7 7.8 3.11 65.0 68.5 54 73 2005 5350443 59., 2005-09 1.56 23.2 7.5 2.93 66.1 69.7 49 66 2010 57U424 56.4 2010-14 1.46 21.9 7.3 2.77 67.2 71.0 43 58 2015 6220396 54.2 2014-19 1.37 20.9 7.1 2.65 68.4 f2.4 38 50 2020 6661296 53.7 2020-24 1.27 19.8 7.0 2.55 69.6 73.9 32 42 2025 7099278 53.4 2025-49 0.91 16.6 7.5 2.27 72.7 77.6 20 25 2050 8920513 54.5 2050-74 e!.47 13.8 9.1 2.08 76.4 81.9 8 11 2075 10042148 60.8 2075-99 0.23 12.6 10.4 2.06 78.9 84.9 5 6 2100 10632609 67.7 2100-24 0.11 12.1 11.0 2.06 80.9 87.3 3 4 2125 10922198 71.0 2125-49 0.05 11.9 11.3 2.05 81.7 88.3 2 3 2150 11065164 72.7 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 754. 70-74 65-69 60-64 Dr s ! ~~~55.59 E 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 1 5-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distributioni of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 hCCC22) LD. C'7 7 3 MORFE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1. zstiuates and Projections To papatim _atl Ped rtoe U U TF4 lltlm FPmtl In KIM 195 117679 50.6 1965-09 0.57 14.7 9.6 1.90 70.5 77.7 Is ls 1990 1210961 50.2 1990-94 0.52 13.7 9.1 1.6 71.7 79.0 13 16 1995 1242929 51.0 1995-99 0.47 13.0 6.9 1.86 73.0 00.3 11 13 2000 1272611 51.1 2000-04 0.44 12.6 6.8 1.69 74.1 51.5 9 12 2005 1301060 51.6 2005-09 0.36 12.6 9.2 1.93 74.9 62.2 6 10 2010 1325732 52.2 2010-14 0.31 12.4 9.6 1.97 73.6 62.9 7 9 2015 134657 54.6 2014-19 0.27 12.2 9.7 2.00 76.4 83.6 6 a 2020 1364789 58.5 2020-24 0.22 12.1 9.9 2.03 77.3 64.3 5 6 2025 137965 62.7 2025-49 0.05 11.9 11.3 2.07 79.0 66.0 3 5 2050 13979 72.4 20so-74 -0.02 11.9 12.0 2.06 60.7 67.7 3 4 2075 13914 72.0 207n-s9 0.03 11.6 11.5 2.06 61.6 U.6 2 3 2100 '403753 73.0 2100-24 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 6.3 89.3 2 3 2125 1414370 74.0 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 42.6 69.6 2 3 2150 1419620 74.6 2. Aqe structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70.74 65-69 60-64 55.5, 50-54 45.49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 mxxx~~~~~~~ 5-9 mgrm-l ~ ~~~0-4 . . . , 04.. . . . . . . . . . . . 10 8 * * 2 0 2 * * | 10 10 6 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 6 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 WX Cc l 3M) 4 AFRICA 1. Estimates and Projections I". rluth GO Teo PAiIm Mi. Peeeriod rots U cm TPU bfir F_l_ts 11 XlM ¶965 555811 93.9 1905-89 3.01 ".7 14.5 6.22 51.4 54.7 105 164 190 "6073 94.2 1990-94 2.93 42.4 13.0 5.91 53.0 56.8 95 147 19" 173 92.5 1995-99 2.69 40.6 11.6 5.57 54.6 59.0 as 129 2000 8645" 9.6 2000-04 2.60 36.3 10.3 5.14 56.6 61.2 74 110 20 9"95 as.67 2005-09 2.64 35.6 9.4 4." 58.1 62.9 66 100 2010 1135176 61.3 2010-14 2." 33.3 6.5 4.23 59.6 6.6 63 91 2015 1265 76.2 2014-19 230 30.7 7.6 3.61 61.2 6.3 57 I1 202 14109 71.0 2020-24 2.13 26.4 7.1 3.4 62.6 68.2 51 ro 2025 1602664 ".2 2025-49 1.6 21.5 6.1 2.5? 67.2 72.9 34 U 2CSO 2369105 49.1 20so-74 0.66 15.6 7.1 2.03 72.7 75.8 15 16 2075 293n09 5.0 2075-99 0.41 13.3 9.3 2.06 76.6 62.6 a 10 2100 3250912 64.1 2100-24 0.17 12.3 10.7 2.05 79.6 86.2 3 4 2125 33N644 69.0 2125-49 0.06 12.0 11.2 2.04 61.0 67.6 3 4 2150 34SM2 71.5 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70.74 - 65-69 60-64 55.5. 50.54 45-49 40-"_ 35-35 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 R%#EzV%^ _ o~~~~~~04 kMAMMM l 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 6 10 10 J 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 AMICA Cie a) AhGOICA (42 M 440K~~~~~~~~~UIA CI2 55) oc"NIA Ca NO ~~~~~~~~~~~~OULANIA Ca Iso GL~~~~~~~, csw 4% GkOWS C(14 We ASIA (S7 aS) S EAST AFRICA 1. Estimates and Projections Dp. Growth *0 so q5 Yl r PpAlatfn rt to Period rate Cm CDR TF9 N lt F_ml in x1000 195 230286 94.8 1985-89 3.09 46.3 15.3 6.43 50.3 54.0 107 167 1990 268723 96.1 1990-94 3.05 44.3 17 8 6.23 51.8 55.8 98 152 1995 312978 95.5 1995-99 3.02 42.6 12.3 5.93 53.5 57.7 88 134 2000 364079 93.9 2000-04 2.92 40.2 10.9 5.49 55.3 5V.A 77 116 2005 421409 °0.0 2005-09 2.78 37.7 9.9 5.01 56.9 61.5 72 106 2010 484228 85.4 2010-14 2.63 35.3 9.0 4.54 58.4 63.2 67 96 2015 552294 80.1 2014-19 2.46 32.8 8.1 4.09 60.1 65.0 61 87 2020 624722 74.8 2020-24 2.31 30.5 7.4 3.72 61.8 66.9 55 76 2025 701369 70.0 2025-49 1.72 23.0 6,1 2.74 66.4 71.8 37 48 2050 1076497 50.0 2050-74 0.94 16.1 6.7 2.09 72.2 77.9 16 20 2075 136564S 51.6 2075-99 0.46 13.5 8.9 2.06 76.3 82.2 8 10 2100 1532778 63.0 2100-24 0.18 12.4 10.6 2.04 79.6 85.9 3 4 2125 160386o 68.6 2125-49 0.08 12.0 11.2 2.04 80.9 87.4 3 4 2150 1637662 71.3 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65.89 80-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 a a 1 ~~~40-44 = ! ~~~~35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 2EEEf EZR EExmxxa FEEEEZ=ES] c0-4 ox 7m 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 P4Th C21 g |4Ip / / EASY (.' 6%) EAST (42 n) .T (36 n 6 WEST AFRICA 1. Estimates and Projections Sep. Growth 00 is Yvo pqnlotlon ratio Period rate cm CDR rn maim Famtm in xlooo 196S 202094 97.9 l'85-89 3.15 47.7 16.3 6.63 48.2 51.4 112 180 1990 236516 98.9 1990-94 3.01 44.7 14.6 6.34 49.6 53.8 101 161 19 274997 97.3 1995-99 3.04 43.4 13.0 6.03 51.4 56.4 90 141 2000 320053 94.5 2000-04 3.00 41.5 11.5 5.63 53.3 59.0 7d 120 2005 37182 91.T 2005-09 2.84 38.8 10.3 5.12 S5.0 60.9 72 108 2010 426579 87.6 2010-14 2.66 35.9 9.2 4.61 56.8 62.8 66 97 2015 48939 82.2 2014-19 2.46 32.9 8.3 4.11 58.6 64.8 60 86 2020 5S3630 75.6 2020-24 2.25 29.8 7.4 3.61 60.5 66.8 54 74 2025 619428 69.2 2025-49 1.60 21.9 6.1 2.53 65.4 72.0 37 47 2050 924971 47.2 2050-74 0.89 15.8 6.9 2.08 71.6 78.3 6 20 2075 1156376 51.5 205-99 0.42 13.4 9.2 2.06 76.0 82.6 8 10 2100 1283075 63.9 2100-24 0.17 12.4 12.7 2.04 79.5 86.1 3 4 2125 1339625 68.7 2125-49 0.09 12.0 11.2 2.04 80.8 87.6 3 4 2150 1369072 71.2 2. Age structure (percent): 199o and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-89 80.84 55.59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 EE5XbTffiSiZZ _ ~~5-9 S>>>> 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 lO 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 NonIrm c2 C'' BS) P QTW C: E C 60) P ASrC43 *0 WEST (36 i NORTH AFRICA 1. Ustizates and Projectioz,s ow. c,dw 00 15 Tow PeGPAtimn ratlo Period rate Cm cm TFI tm" Femle INN a100 19M 123430 86.0 1985-89 2.64 36.7 10.1 5.14 58.7 61.7 84 121 1990 140834 83.6 1990-94 2.58 34.8 8.9 4.66 60.9 63.9 72 102 1995 160196 79.7 1995-9 2.3t 31.7 7.8 4.16 63.0 66.2 62 86 2000 180466 73.9 2000-04 2.19 28.9 6.9 3.67 65.0 68.4 52 71 2005 201342 68.8 2005-09 1.99 26.4 6.5 3.26 66.2 69.8 46 62 2010 222369 62.8 2010-14 1.78 23.9 6.2 2.90 67.5 71.3 40 54 2015 243023 58.0 2014-19 1.56 21.5 5.9 2.58 68.8 72.8 33 45 2020 262737 54.3 2020-24 1.42 20.0 5.8 2.41 70.1 74.4 27 35 2025 282067 51.7 2025-49 1.04 16.5 6.3 2.18 73.4 7?.2 15 19 2050 365637 51.3 2050-74 0.51 13.5 8.5 2.08 77.2 82.6 7 9 2075 41S287 62.5 2075-99 0.19 12.5 10.6 2.07 79.4 85.4 4 6 2100 43SO9 68.5 2100-24 0.09 12.0 11.1 2.06 81.2 87.6 2 4 2125 465253 7).5 2125-49 0.05 11.8 11.4 2.06 81.9 88.5 2 3 2150 450298 73.1 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 <§ :2 ~~~~45-49 g§ E 40-44 35-39 30*34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 lo 80 6 2468 Ol 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 8 ~~~~~~~~~EAST C41 ES) IArC4 %ETZ 3t76X) WEST86 83 AMERICA 1. Estimates and Projections S". Stoinh b TYa P_Atfat ratfo Perfid rate C cm TFR kim Fmim In axl00 1965 666055 63.0 1965-89 1.58 23.4 7.9 2.84 67.1 73.4 44 55 1.J0 723006 61.0 1990-94 1.46 21.5 7.3 2.63 68.3 74.8 38 48 1995 r77581 58.9 1995-99 1.28 19.4 6.8 2.43 69.5 76.2 33 40 2000 829079 55.1 2000-04 1.14 17.8 6.6 2.28 70.7 77.6 27 33 2005 6r779 51.4 2005-09 1.05 16.9 6.6 2.18 71.6 78.4 23 Zs 2010 925092 49.1 2010-14 0.96 16.4 6.7 2.15 72.6 79.4 19 23 2015 971776 49.3 2014-19 0.90 15.7 6.8 2.12 73.5 80.3 15 18 2020 101669 51.1 2020-24 o.79 14.8 7.0 2.10 74.6 81.3 11 14 205 1057762 53.5 2025-49 0.48 13.4 8.6 2.07 76.9 83.6 5 7 2050 1193246 62.7 2050-74 0.18 12.4 10.6 2.06 79.5 66.1 3 4 2075 1248391 68.8 2075-99 0.0 12.0 11.2 2.06 80.9 87.6 3 4 2100 1273526 71.6 2100-24 0.05 11.8 11.3 2.06 81.9 88.8 2 3 2125 1269142 n.3 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.3 69.3 2 3 2150 1296853 74.1 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 754. 70-74 05.69 60-64 55.59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5.9 - ~~~~0-4 .... .. _ ...~~~~~~~~......... . . 0 .... .. ,./. 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 A~~~~OICA C1AFIC3C2 % 6l c 14 so ASIA - (57 M) 9 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 1. Estimates and Projections .Growth 0c Tw Pepiatim ratio Pei od rate cm CD TFt Nitm Fnlm lo x100O 1965 400015 72.7 1985-89 2.03 28.5 7.3 3.56 64.0 69.5 55 70 1990 "2670 68.0 1990-94 1.86 26.1 6.7 3.13 65.3 71.4 48 60 1995 485S51 63.9 1995-99 1.63 23.1 6.1 2.76 66.7 73.2 41 51 2000 527030 58.7 2000-04 1.43 20.6 5.8 2.45 68.1 75.0 34 42 2005 S66011 53.7 2005-09 1.30 19.2 5.8 2.29 69.2 76.1 29 36 2010 604103 49.8 2010-14 1.22 18.3 5.9 2.22 70.4 77.2 24 29 2015 64222X 48.1 2014-19 1.13 17.4 6.0 2.17 71.6 78.4 18 23 2020 679399 48.3 2020-24 1.00 16.2 6.1 2.12 72.8 79.6 13 17 2025 714215 49.1 2025-49 0 67 14.1 7.4 2.08 75.7 82.4 6 8 2050 845000 59.0 2050-74 0.26 12.6 10.0 2.07 78.8 85.4 3 5 2075 901675 67.4 2075-99 0.10 12.1 11.1 2.06 80.5 87.2 3 4 2100 924514 70.9 2100-24 0.06 11.8 11.3 2.06 81.7 88.6 2 3 2125 937966 73.0 2125-49 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 82.2 89.1 2 3 2150 944567 73.9 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ ; S 1 ~~~70-74 3 E B | BO~~8-69 § E ;3 2 1 ~~~55-59 2 SA 60-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 3% .34 25-29 20-24 Ir<3ggEEg2 15-19 FXXXRRRX SggaSBBBU 10-14 5-9 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 ,wiEa c's LAC C6I 31) LC CS, 51 10 NORTHERN AMERICA 1. Estimates and Projections Dep. Growth tO Yaw rPpulation rwtt. Pfriod ,ate O Cm TF8 MElot Folo Io X1000 I965 268039 50.4 1985-89 0.90 15.4 8.7 1.87 72.0 79.2 10 12 1990 280336 51.1 1990-94 0.80 14.1 8.3 1.86 73.2 80.1 9 1 1995 291730 51.2 1995-99 0.70 13.0 8.1 1.86 74.3 81.2 7 9 2000 302049 49.2 2000-04 0.64 12.8 8.0 1.90 75.4 82.1 6 8 2005 311898 47.3 2005-09 0.57 12.6 8.2 1.93 76.1 82.8 6 8 2010 320989 47.8 2010-14 0.53 12.6 8.3 1.96 76.8 83.5 5 7 2015 329551 51.6 2014-19 0.46 12.4 8.4 1.99 77.5 84.1 4 6 2020 337295 57.0 2020-24 0.37 12.1 8.7 2.03 78.3 84.8 4 5 2025 343547 63.4 2025-49 0.05 11.8 11.2 2.06 79.7 86.4 3 4 2050 348247 72.3 2050-74 -0.02 11.8 12.0 2.06 81.1 87.9 2 4 2075 346716 72.4 2075-99 0.03 11.8 11.5 2.06 81.9 88.7 2 3 2100 349012 73.4 2100-24 0.02 11.7 11.4 2.06 82.4 89.4 2 3 2125 351157 74.2 2125449 0.01 11.6 11.5 2.06 82.7 89.6 2 3 2150 352286 74.7 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 ED 22 8~~~~5-89 4Xm > gB 1 6~~~0-84 g S|| :gm |2 1 ~~55.59 IR% || 50-54 45-49 URiZ 1 ~~~~40-44 1 bEZ^D g«g2 1 ~35-39 1>xwB RRZZ2U UEZER 1 30.341 oA//M 25-29 20-24 gR22Z g2 1 1~~~~15-1 9 10-14 RSEGYY BUBgS $ ~5-9 1>50BB 55555 ZW 1 ~~0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 NMOO CX 71) / ~ ~~~ ~ Z c < ; /a^| 7AC CAC 735S1 11~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 6 X ASIA 1. Estimates and Projections PW. Gra 40 SO Y_ Ppsa^tion ratio Pwriod rat CO CD TFt elo Femles Ei Z100O 1965 2824765 65.3 196M-89 1.86 27.6 8.9 3.43 62.8 64.8 71 95 1990 3099413 61.3 1990-94 1.72 25.7 8.4 3.14 64.2 66.4 63 82 1995 337725 60.3 1995-99 1.54 23.4 7.9 2.88 65.6 68.1 54 70 2000 3648496 58.6 2000-04 1.40 21.5 7.5 2.71 67.0 69.9 47 60 2005 3912188 SS.1 2005-09 1.26 20.0 7.3 2.56 68.1 71.1 42 53 2010 4166876 51.0 2010-14 1.16 18.9 7.3 2.43 69.2 72.4 36 4 2015 415473 50.0 2014-19 1.09 18.1 7.2 2.35 70.3 73.8 30 38 2020 4661806 50.1 2020-24 1.00 17.3 7.2 2.29 71.5 75.3 24 31 2025 4901771 50.7 202S-49 0.68 15.0 8.2 2.16 74.5 78.9 14 17 2050 5816905 56.7 2050-74 0.32 13.1 9.9 2.08 77.8 82.9 6 8 2075 630740 64.0 205-?9 0.16 12.4 10.8 2.07 79.8 85.6 4 5 2100 6560572 69.1 2100-24 0.08 12.0 11.1 2.06 81.4 87.7 2 4 2125 6696718 71.9 2125-49 0.04 11.8 11.4 2.06 82.0 88.6 2 3 2150 6766687 73.2 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 1 65-09 60-84 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-" 4 5.9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 *ItcA C13 %) FRICA (12 2?) AeI C12 5%) / \ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~CAW.A^ (O SS)/ OWAUIA Co m ELO C 14 60 AS2 C57 M 12 EAST AND SOUTHEAST ASIA 1. Estimates and Projections Do. Growth 0 40 q5 ver .1uution rtio Period rate co C TF Nhtes FmaLes Im alIOO 1965 1651340 57.9 1985-89 1.50 22.2 7.0 2.61 66.9 69.9 39 51 1990 1780635 52.3 1990-94 1.41 21.1 6.9 2.43 68.3 71.3 32 40 1995 1910874 51.8 1995-99 1.25 19.3 6.7 2.27 69.7 ?.7 26 32 2000 2033654 51.8 2000-04 1.07 17.3 6.6 2.17 71.1 74.3 21 26 2005 2145133 49.5 2005-09 0.92 16.0 6.7 2.12 72.0 75.4 18 23 2010 2246473 46.8 2010-14 0.85 15.4 6.9 2.10 73.0 76.5 16 19 2015 2343843 46.0 2014-19 0.80 15.1 7.1 2.09 74.0 77.7 13 16 2020 2439353 47.9 2020-24 0.73 14.7 *.3 2.09 75.0 79.0 10 12 2025 2530533 50.2 2025-49 0.43 13.2 9.0 2.08 77.3 82.0 5 7 2050 2817380 62.9 2050-74 0.15 12.4 10.9 2.07 79.7 85.2 3 5 2075 2921997 68.6 2075-99 0.08 12.0 11.2 2.06 81.0 87.1 3 4 2100 2961117 71.4 2100-24 0.05 11.8 11.3 2.06 82.0 U8.5 2 3 2125 3019642 73.1 2125-49 0.03 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.4 89.1 2 3 2150 3039230 74.0 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 751+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 .... . = _5 ~~~~0-4 S 108 6420246 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 SWE.T C4 Iw) SV5T CS C) OWN CU 3U) '.I CS i Co 4a) am cli SI) 13 SOUTH ASIA 1. Estimatoe and Projections OP. Groth oO q5 TYa Poputation ratio Pwrad rate W co TFt Mlet Fmstes lo l1000 ¶965 1058207 76.5 1985-89 2.29 34.9 11.9 4.66 56.8 56.9 102 136 1990 1186528 74.7 1990-94 2.06 31.4 10.7 4.16 58.2 59.0 93 122 1995 1314996 72.3 1995.99 1.85 28.2 9.6 3.67 59.8 61.3 82 106 2000 14216 67.0 2000-04 1.73 26.2 8.8 3.32 61.5 63.6 71 90 2005 1572428 61.3 2005-09 1.60 24.3 8.3 3.00 62.9 65.3 62 80 2010 1703008 5f.9 2010-14 1.44 22.4 7.9 2.71 64.3 67.0 54 69 2015 1¶30214 53.7 2014-19 1.33 20.9 7.6 2.54 65.8 68.8 46 58 2020 156044 51.5 2020-24 1.23 19.7 7.4 2.43 67.3 70.6 37 48 2025 2079666 50.1 2025-49 0.89 16.4 7.6 2.20 71.2 75.2 21 27 2050 2596619 51.2 2050-74 0.45 13.7 9.3 2.09 75.8 80.6 8 10 2075 2905338 60.5 2075-99 0.21 12.7 10.6 2.07 78.7 84.1 5 6 2100 3062192 67.1 2100-24 0.11 12.1 11.0 2.06 80.8 86.9 3 4 2125 3149368 70.7 2125-49 0.05 1'.9 11.3 2.06 81.7 88.1 2 3 2150 3192437 72.5 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55.59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 1 5-1 9 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 1 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 sowv Cd U) swt' sr- Jla^ 4 IN C17 Sr soJ'YwC42'UI 14 SOUTHWEST ASIA 1. zsti5ates and Projections Growth 01 Yw pr puAetin rtlto P7riod rate Cm Cm TF4 Note F_L. in alOcG 19M 1147i 60.6 1985-89 2.83 36.7 8.8 5. 1 62.1 64.9 72 lC 1990 132319 78.7 1990-94 2.75 35.' 8.0 4.75 63.6 66.5 6a s8 1995 151556 78.6 1995-99 2.57 32.6 7.1 4.35 65.2 68.2 55 74 2000 ¶72678 77.0 2000-04 2.39 30.2 6.4 3.99 66.8 70.0 46 62 2005 194627 72.6 2005-09 2.21 28.2 6.1 3.65 67.9 71.3 40 54 2010 21739 67.9 2010-14 2.10 26.8 5.8 3.40 69.0 72.7 34 46 2015 241416 64.4 2014-19 1.97 25.3 5.6 3.17 70.2 74.1 28 38 2020 266411 62.0 2020-24 1.80 23.4 5.4 2.93 71.4 75.6 22 30 2025 291571 60.2 2025-49 1.29 18.3 5.6 2.36 74.3 79.1 13 17 2050 402478 51.4 2050-74 0.71 14.2 7.2 2.08 77.7 83.1 6 8 2075 48073 58.6 2075-99 0.30 12.6 9.6 2.07 79.8 85.6 4 5 2100 517262 68.7 2100-24 0.10 12.0 11.G 2.06 81.4 87.7 2 4 2125 529705 71.9 212S-49 0.04 11.8 11.4 2.06 62.0 88.6 2 3 2150 535220 73.3 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 * e-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5.9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 snaw C' 3) swsr Co M on Cy51 an C SU)15 15 EUROPE AND U.S.S.R. '. .stiuates and Projections Im. Iraof b T1w PauIst2i. ratio Perlod rate - m TFC rtem Famt INN x1000 I i 769036 51.3 19M-89 0.45 14.9 10.5 1.97 69.1 76.5 la 22 1990 766717 51.1 1990-94 0.42 14.0 9.8 1.90 70.4 78.1 15 19 1995 803251 51.9 1995-99 0.36 13.2 9.4 1.66 71.7 M9.S 13 16 2000 18717S 52.1 2000-04 0.37 13.0 9.2 1.91 73.0 60.6 11 14 2005 U4101 53.2 200s-09 0.32 12.6 9.6 1.95 73.6 1.5 iO 12 2010 67392 52.9 2010-14 0.27 12.7 10.0 1.99 74.6 82.3 a 10 2015 659005 54.5 2014-19 0.24 12.5 10.1 2.01 75.5 63.0 7 9 2020 669232 57.7 2020-24 0.21 12.3 10.2 2.04 76.4 63.9 5 7 2025 876243 61.5 2025-49 0.06 12.0 11.2 2.07 78.4 65.6 3 5 2050 6967S4 71.4 20S0-74 o.o 11.9 11.9 2.07 60.3 67.4 3 4 2075 69740 71.4 2073-9I 0.04 11.9 11.4 2.06 11.4 6.5 2 3 2100 903W 72.? 2100-24 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 62.2 69.2 2 3 212S 914173 73.9 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 62.5 89.5 2 3 2150 918117 74.5 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 756+ 70.74 65-6B 60-64 55.5, 50-54 4549 40-4 35.39 30.34 25-20 20.24 15.19 10-14 5., 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 oaiiiiiIiilcA C13 -s:* > APOICA (12 MMICA CI2 SI ('4t~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~A~C c\ CoX *' ^O 4U) ASIA CS7 CU 1 6 OCEANIA 1. Estimates and Projections lw PwuSthm route Gouttd ot W Tn I 40I Im 1 im 19 24634 %. 7 :95-89 1.57 19.4 7.9 2.4 69.2 7r.0 28 37 1990 26651 54.9 )0-94 1.55 19.0 7.7 2.40 70.2 76.0 24 31 199 28797 55.1 i995-99 1.36 17.9 7.5 2.33 71.3 77.0 20 26 2000 30119 53.5 20C-04 1.19 17.1 7.4 2.31 72.3 73.1 17 21 2005 32711 52.4 2005-09 1.02 16.2 7.4 2.26 73. 78.8 16 20 2010 34420 51.5 2010-14 0.5? 15.4 7.5 2.20 73.6 79.9 Is 19 2015 35945 52.4 2014-19 0.72 14.7 7.5 2.13 74.6 80.4 14 17 2020 37264 53.7 2020-24 0.65 14.3 7.7 2.11 75.5 61.3 13 16 2025 38502 5S.6 2025-49 0.40 13.3 9.3 2.10 77.4 63.3 9 11 2050 42519 64.? 2050-. 0.14 12.4 11.0 2.07 79.4 63.7 4 5 207 44065 66.6 20?5-,. 0.08 12.1 11.2 2.07 80.6 67.3 3 4 2100 4974 71.3 2100-24 0.05 11.8 11.3 2.06 61.9 66.6 2 3 2125 4559 73.0 2125-49 0.03 11.7 11.3 2.06 62.3 69.1 2 3 2150 4690 73.9 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 Ea ~~~~~70-74 (ll e s eS~~~6.69 2 lD ~~~~60.64 332: %3 lX 6~~~~5-ag 55.56 E = 50.54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-¶4 542 526555 _ O~ ~ ~~-4 1 10 3 6 4 2 0 2 * 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 AWN'CA C43 71 AFAICA (12 21 OCsMUA Co 940ICA C`12~ CIA CO 0) CA C O \ S t (14 ~E am*) < ASIA C17 W 17 LOW-INCOME ECONOMIES 1. Eztimates and Projections Sp. Growth O 0 qS Tow pquiat2in ratio Period rate Ca CDR TFE Note Femals IRE xlOO0 1905 2711235 69.2 1985-89 2.04 30.9 10.3 3.88 60.2 61.7 84 118 1990 3002970 65.7 1990-94 ..92 29.0 9.7 3.59 61.4 63.3 75 105 1995 330s546 65.1 1995l-9 1.77 26.8 9.0 3.33 62.8 65.0 67 93 2000 3611290 63.5 2000-04 1.64 24.9 8.4 3.15 64.2 66.9 59 1 2005 3920688 60.0 2005-09 1.52 23.4 8.1 2.99 65.3 68.2 5i 74 2010 4231067 56.5 2010-14 1.43 22.1 7.8 2.U2 66.4 69.5 48 66 2015 4543920 54.4 2014-19 1.3i 21.1 7.6 2.70 67.6 71.0 42 57 2020 4861230 53.9 2020-24 1.26 20.1 7.4 2.59 68.8 72.6 36 48 2025 5178125 53.6 2025-49 0.91 16.8 7.8 2.29 72.0 76.5 23 29 2050 6499395 54.i 2050-74 0.48 13.9 9.2 2.08 75.8 81.1 10 12 2075 7323357 60.0 2075-99 0.24 12.7 10.3 2.06 78.5 84.3 5 7 2100 7734287 67.0 2100-24 0.12 12.1 11.0 2.06 80.7 8Y.0 3 4 212S 8015877 70.6 2125-49 0.06 11.9 11.3 2.05 81.6 88.1 2 3 2150 8131561 72.5 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 6 2 1 ~~~~75 + 70-4 2 B f e~~~O-e4 ] 1 ~~~~55-59 iss2 50-54 45-49 40-44 35.39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10.14 S2ES SXn ~~~ ~~5-9 R2 .. WfiMM.M. _ jo0-4 ________ 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 H4IS C1 4C 'i': 11 1%) hwassom Co 'U0) LOW-ID Ce M "l°~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.,uoCl'. -tt LOW Loop-mlo ci4 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 LOWER-MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES 1. Estiaates and Projections ~~~~~S. - rt '_ vow Pepaltation ratio Pwrlod rate Co cm TFN Nlot Flm 1s t x 009 1965 694678 75.4 1965-89 2.19 30.8 8.3 3.91 62.0 66. 7 62 4 1990 moo5 71.6 1990-94 2.04 28.5 7.5 3.51 63.5 68.6 35 73 1995 6t5oJ 68.0 1995-99 1.85 25.9 6.8 3.17 65.0 70.5 47 S3 2000 941339 63.1 2000-04 1.69 23.6 6.3 2.87 66.5 72.3 40 53 2005 1024526 58.5 2005-09 1.56 22.1 6.2 2.67 67.6 73.5 35 47 2010 1107554 54.5 2010-14 1.46 21.0 6.2 2.55 68.8 74.6 30 40 2015 1191494 52.3 2014-19 1.36 19.3 6.1 2.46 70.0 75.9 26 34 2020 1273192 51.7 2020-24 1.2* 18.6 6.1 2.39 71.2 77.2 21 28 2025 1356994 51.9 2025-49 0.89 15.8 7.0 2.20 74.3 60.3 12 16 2050 1693991 56.0 2050-74 0.43 13.3 9.1 2.07 77.7 83.9 6 7 2075 1664105 63.4 2075-99 0.19 :Z, 4 10.5 2.06 79.7 86.1 4 5 2100 1973496 69.3 2100-24 0.03 12.0 11.1 2.06 81.3 86.0 2 4 215 20i5499 2.0 1 2-49 0.04 11 8 11.4 2.06 62.0 8.6 2 3 2150 20Z5627 73 4 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ 70-74 65-89 60-84 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 n 22WiM 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 oxooo _ ~~~~10-14' 3 5-9 0-4 10 D 6 4 2 0 2 * s 8 10 l¶ 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of po-alation (percent): 1990 and 2025 tsicH (is 4%)WIH )lM 7 - \ FPMOCS ar) iM04 Cs "ll (S I LO10~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~O C14 1% LOW-MID (14 7U1 19 UPPER-MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES 1. lstiuates and Pro4ections 1wr PgMIaUS nail. Pftrd at. WEm TME ftm Pmilm In 0=N 1965 29482 67.1 1965-69 1.61 26.5 3.5 3.50 64.6 69.9 53 70 1990 322M 65.4 190-94 1.79 26.0 7.9 3.36 66.1 71.3 46 60 199 33157 64.4 199-9" 1.72 24.6 7.3 3.20 6.4 72.' 39 50 2000 38470 63.5 2000-04 1.63 23.2 6.6 3.04 66.6 74.4 33 41 2005 4W370 61. 2005-09 1.52 22.0 6.7 2.9 69.6 75.3 29 36 2010 40S325 59.3 2010-14 1.42 30.9 6.6 2.75 70.5 76.4 24 30 2015 4574 51.6 2014-19 1.32 19.7 6.5 2.59 71.9 77.5 19 24 2020 516502 s6.7 2020-24 1.22 16.6 6.4 2.47 73.1 73.7 1 4 1 205 549026 56.2 2025-49 0.66 15.. 7.0 2.17 75.6 61.6 7 9 2050 66459 55.5 2050-74 0.4 13.3 6.7 2.27 76.6 4.6 4 5 2075 7645 63.3 2075-99 0.19 12.3 10.4 2.06 6.5s 6. 3 4 2100 305364 70.4 2100.24 0.07 11.9 11.2 2.06 1.r7 * .4 2 3 2125 1963 72.7 2125-49 0.0Q I.( 11.4 2.06 62.2 69.0 2 3 21SO 62132 73.! 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-89 60.64 55-59 50.54 45-4, 40.44 z>>2o sBaa 30 34 omz maa 26 25 29 20.24 16- i9_ 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 to 8 6 * 2 C 2 * 6 * 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 woom cis 4m~~~ear c WPW*Nlo Cs * "ID-IOCS LOW CMi W) LW-* S Cis U) LON Col. go L-Io C14 m 20 HIGH-IWCOME ECONOMIES 1. Zatiates and Projections Sip. -~~~~~~~~~~~~~'~~~~% %q1 Tow Pvip:Im rvito Pu -,ad e 8m ml TrR fim FitnI IE XINS 19M 787471 50.0 1965-39 0.67 14.0 6.6 1.60 72.7 79.2 12 15 199M 614201 49.5 1990-94 0.61 13.5 6.6 1.61 73.6 60.1 1 1 14 194 JY902 50.2 I995-99 0.54 12.9 6.5 1.64 74.6 61.2 10 12 20am 661577 50.7 2000-04 0.49 12.6 6.5 1.90 73.6 62.1 9 11 2005 665412 51.2 2005-09 0.41 12.4 8.6 '.96 76.. u.r 8 10 2010 90273 52.5 2010-14 0.35 12.3 9.2 2.02 77.1 U.3 7 9 3015 916037 56.1 2014-19 0.31 12.3 9.4 2.06 MT.7 64.0 6 a 2020 932599 60.2 2020-24 0.26 12.2 9.7 2.10 78.4 84.6 5 6 202 9467M3 66.7 2025-49 0.05 11.9 11.4 2.10 79.6 66.1 3 5 5a 955942 73.3 2050-74 -0.01 11.9 12.0 2.06 61.1 07.7 3 4 207 94470 71.5 2073-9 0.05 11.6 11.3 2.06 81.6 66 2 2100 9612 73.2 2100-24 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 62.4 69.3 2 3 2125 9726J 74.1 2125-49 0.01 11.6 11.5 2.06 62.7 09.6 2 3 2150 976646 74.6 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ 70-74 65-60 60-64 55.5. 50-54 45-4. 40-44 3e-39 30.34 25.29 20-24 10-14 5.. 0-4 lo 2 a _0 0 6 4 2 2 4 6 S 3. Distribution or population (percent): 1990 and 2025 MGM C"AID ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ L~CUU wom-W10 Ca *. 1c L.mIoo Co 1m 21 NONREPORTING NONMEMBER ECONOMIES 1. Estimates and Projections Sep. GcO t b To PepAsatin rotis Peiod rato Ca cm TFt NoLm Fi_lo 1in xlO00 1995 3S4023 54.3 1985-89 0.7. 18.2 10.4 2.35 65.8 74.2 25 31 1990 366790 54.0 1990-94 0.67 16.2 9.2 2.18 67.3 76.4 22 27 1995 379235 54.4 1995-99 0.65 15.2 8.6 2.11 68.9 78.2 19 23 2000 391724 S2.8 2000-04 0.67 15.0 8.3 2.10 70.5 79.9 16 19 2005 405W?T 53.3 200S-09 0.62 15.0 8.7 2.10 71.5 80.7 14 17 2010 417q37 52.0 2010-14 0.56 14.6 9.0 2.09 72.5 81.5 11 14 2015 429)29 52.3 2014-19 0.50 14.0 9.0 2.08 73.6 82.4 9 12 2020 440565 54.8 2020-24 0.44 13.4 9.1 2.07 74.7 83.2 7 9 2025 .50264 57.8 2025-49 0.29 12.8 9.9 2.07 77.2 85.2 4 5 2050 484722 66.8 2050-74 0.11 12.2 11.0 2.06 79.7 87.2 3 4 2075 496515 64.9 2075-99 0.07 11.9 11.3 2.06 81.0 88.3 2 4 2100 50696 72.1 2100-24 0.04 11.8 11.4 2.06 82.0 89.1 2 3 2125 512240 73.6 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.4 89.S 2 3 2150 514817 74.4 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65.69 80-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 S 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 "'wC"z/~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~"I \Nl ) NIG cis§ 47/"\ 7 LOMA-Woos Cs- Cs *4I~~4 Cl' ~~~.9-M,OLt CS LOW-MIID C CO / (81 ww lo C i X / ,/ 2 22 ASIA REGION (and Oceania) ASIA AND OCEANIA REGION 1. Estimates and Projections De. Growth 'I 00 Year Population ratio Period rate C4 CDR TFR NaLes Ftes INN x1o00 198S 2576202 63.3 1985-89 1.72 26.0 8.7 3.18 63.4 65.5 67 88 1990 2807781 58.8 1990-94 1.57 24.0 8.2 2.89 64.8 67.1 58 75 1995 3037537 57.6 1995-99 1.39 21.7 7.8 2.63 66.2 68.8 50 63 2000 3255429 55.7 2000-04 1.23 19.7 7.4 2.47 67.7 70.5 42 53 2005 3461433 52.2 2005-09 1.08 18.2 7.3 2.33 68.8 71.8 37 47 2010 3653986 49.0 2010-14 0.97 17.1 7.3 2.21 69.9 73.1 31 39 2015 3835854 47.3 2014-19 0.90 16.4 7.4 2.15 71.0 74.5 26 32 2020 4012503 47.7 2020-24 0.83 15.8 7.5 2.13 72.2 76.0 20 25 2025 4182831 48.8 2025-49 0.54 14.0 8.7 2.09 75.1 79.5 11 14 2050 4787708 58.6 2050-74 0.22 12.7 10.6 2.07 78.3 83.4 5 6 2075 5055299 66.3 2075-99 0.11 12.2 11.1 2.06 80.2 85.9 3 4 2100 5199264 69.8 2100-24 0.07 11.9 11.2 2.06 81.6 87.9 2 3 2125 5295063 72.3 2125-49 0.04 11.8 11.4 2.06 82.1 88.7 2 3 2150 5342583 73.5 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-89 80-84 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 SXXX4 gEgE%l 1 10-14 RU S| ERRZ9Z gUn 1 ~~~5-9| 22 %E! 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 02 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 LAC Ci3 ) AFQICA (10 01) LAC C12 5%) AF41A (18 1) EM(21 88) OM C23 It) ASIA (53 21) 26 ASIA AND OCEANIA, BORROWERS ONLY 1. Estimates and Projections kp. Grth 'o 0 yaw PtpAetin ratio Period rate C4 CDR TF4 Not" Fmtft in xlO00 1965 2366143 64.4 1985-89 1.79 27.0 8.9 3.29 62.7 64.4 69 91 1990 2609929 59.8 1990-94 1.63 24.8 8.3 2.97 64.1 66.0 60 78 1995 2832160 58.4 1995-99 1.43 22.3 7.8 2.68 65.6 67.8 51 65 2000 3042748 56.2 2000-04 1.27 20.2 7.4 2.50 67.1 69.7 44 55 2005 324205 52.3 2005-09 1.12 18.6 7.? 2.35 68.2 71.0 38 48 2010 3429263 48.7 2010-14 1.01 17.4 7.2 2.22 69.4 72.4 32 41 2015 3607194 46.7 2014-19 0.94 16.7 7.3 2.16 70.6 73.9 27 33 2020 3781033 47.0 2020-24 0.87 16.1 7.3 2.13 71.8 75.4 21 26 2025 3949143 48.0 2025-49 0.57 14.2 8.5 2.10 74.8 79.1 11 14 2050 4552196 57.9 2050-74 0.23 12.8 10.5 2.07 78.2 83.2 5 6 207 4823248 66.0 2075-99 0.12 12.3 11.1 2.06 80.1 85.8 3 5 2100 4966048 69.7 2100-24 0.08 11.9 11.2 2.06 81.6 87.9 2 3 2125 5060340 72.2 2125-49 0.04 11.8 11.4 2.06 82.1 88.7 2 3 2150 5107063 73.4 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ 70-74 65-69 80-84 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20.24 15-19 10-14 5.9 0-4 I0 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 AN (92 n) am C94 : ( 27 ASIA DEPARTMENT I 1. zstimates and Projections I". el-ON ,4 Tow PupAltts "etie Paled rate WI TUE ftm F tmti IM xi= 195 136396 89.2 1965-89 2.26 36. v 13.6 4.9 53.1 52.9 114 167 1o9 150626 83.1 1990-96 2.06 33.4 12.5 4.37 54.3 54.4 106 154 1¶99 1¶6971 73.4 1995-99 1.39 30.6 11.3 3.82 55.7 56.1 95 137 2000 ¶M34 67.4 2000-04 1.79 26.6 10.4 3.44 57.4 S8.1 4 116 200 200765 62.4 2005-09 1.63 26.2 9.7 3.09 59.0 59.9 76 106 2010 21756 58.4 2010-14 1.42 23.4 9.0 2.76 60.6 61.7 67 94 2015 233927 54.5 2014-19 1.22 20.7 8.5 2.48 62.3 63.7 59 61 2020 248581 50.3 2020-24 1.11 19.4 6.2 2.35 64.0 65.7 51 69 2025 26Is81 47.5 2025-49 0.62 16.6 8.4 2.19 68.4 71.1 32 41 2050 323011 50.3 2050-74 0.39 13.9 10.1 2.10 73.8 77.5 12 1s 2075 355763 59.1 2075-99 0.21 12.9 10.6 2.06 77.4 82.0 7 s 2100 374662 65.0 2100-24 0.13 42.3 10.9 2.06 60.3 05.3 3 4 21n 387518 69.4 2125-49 0.07 12.0 11.3 2.06 81.3 87.4 2 4 2150 394210 71.8 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45.49 40--4 35.39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 569 0-4 10 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4 2 6 S 0 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 Lii Cs - A, .s *A5 C7 90 1 As C 7 MO D AN C34 go AM~~~~~~~~~~~~Ł5 (24 U) 2 SCAv1't < AU.u < //(43t < /(J~~~2 ASIA DEPARTMENT 11 1. Estimates and Projections D. Growth go 0 9s Vow pqmAa&tium rtio Pwled rate cm CDR TF3 ftLm Firn to XIOOO im 272315 71.4 1985-89 1.96 28.0 7.8 3.42 62.3 66.5 49 6S 1990 300409 66.3 1990-94 1.80 2S.6 7.2 3.00 63.7 68.4 41 54 1995 32876 62.4 1995-99 1.60 23.0 6.6 2.70 65.3 70.4 34 43 2000 3S6139 57.3 2000-04 1.42 20.7 6.2 2.45 66.9 72.3 28 35 2005 382349 52.8 2005-09 1.23 18.7 6.2 2.23 68.1 73.6 24 31 2010 406685 48.5 2010-14 1.14 17.7 6.2 2.14 69.3 74.8 21 26 2015 .30524 45.8 2014-19 1.08 17.1 6.3 2.13 70.5 76.2 18 22 2020 454359 45.6 2020-24 0.99 16.3 6.4 2.11 71.8 77.6 14 18 2025 4M94 47.2 2025-49 0.65 14.1 7.7 2.06 74.9 80.9 8 10 2050 561862 58.3 2050-74 0.25 12.7 10.2 2.07 78.3 84.S 4 5 2075 597573 66.8 2075-99 0.11 12.2 11.1 2.06 80.2 86.6 3 4 2100 613859 70.4 2100-24 0.07 11.9 11.2 2.06 81.6 88.3 2 3 2125 624166 n.6 2125-49 0.03 11.8 11.4 2.06 82.1 88.9 2 3 2150 629270 73.7 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70.74 65.69 60-84 55.59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10.14 5.9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 199C and 2025 ASS C 7. M AS CS AS2 cli M ~~~~~~~ASS C7 41) S sA2C1 % AN~( C3. AS, (3 ) A CW a2 29 ASIA DEPARTMENT III 1. Eutimates and Projections IW. growth @0 GO0q Towr pqutatlm ratio Pwad rate cm cm TFU Nlut Fmtm In XlOOG 195 1044554 53.9 1985-89 1.43 21.0 6.6 2.40 68.4 70.6 32 39 1990 1121960 47.7 1990-94 1.37 20.4 6.7 2.28 69.6 71.7 27 32 1995 1201556 48.5 1995-99 1.19 18.6 6.6 2.16 70.9 73.0 22 26 2000 1275464 50.1 2000-04 1.00 16.6 6.5 2.11 72.2 74.4 18 22 2005 13410i7 48.0 2005-09 0.86 15.3 6.7 2.10 73.1 75.5 15 19 2010 1399MN4 45.1 2010-14 0.79 14.8 6.9 2.10 74.1 76.7 13 16 2015 1456442 44.4 2014-19 0.75 14.7 7.1 2.09 75.1 77.9 10 13 2020 1512424 47.4 2020-24 0.70 14.3 7.3 2.08 76.1 79.3 8 10 2025 1566159 50.2 2025-49 0.38 13.0 9.2 2.07 78.2 U.3 4 6 2zS0 1720696 6A.0 2050-74 0.12 12.3 11.1 2.06 80.3 85.4 3 4 2075 1774? 69.3 2075-99 0.07 12.0 11.3 2.06 81.3 87.2 2 4 2100 1604227 71.9 2100-24 0.04 11.8 11.3 2.06 82.2 88.6 2 3 2125 16474 73.4 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 U.5 89.1 2 3 2150 1834915 74.2 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-69 60-64 55.59 50-54 E sS ~~~~45-49 4044 35-39 30-34 g§2ES{ FUmPUn 1 25-29 6 l 20-24 15-19 10-14 5.9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 A C7.M) AB s t, 3 C, c7 41, Al.. CS , Ł34 CN 2_,4 0 A4 ()' 25) 30 ASIA DEPARTMENT IV 1. Estimates and Projections Dop. Growth *0 0 0 qS vow Population rtio Priod rate Ca CDR TFt Mats Fmles Io xtO00 195 765147 72.1 1985-89 2.10 32.4 11.4 4.26 57.8 57.9 99 128 1990 849651 70.3 1990-94 1.82 28.5 10.2 3.74 59.3 60.2 88 113 1995 930639 67.8 IM5-9 1.58 25.1 9.2 3.22 61.0 62.6 77 96 2000 1007122 62.1 2000-04 1.44 23.0 8.5 2.88 62.8 65.0 65 79 2005 1082479 56.1 2005-09 1.29 21.1 8.1 2.57 64.2 66.7 57 69 2010 1154J41 51.6 2010-14 1.13 19.1 7.8 2.29 65.6 68.4 48 58 2015 1221692 48.5 2014-19 1.04 18.1 7.7 2.19 67.0 70.2 39 48 2020 128660 46.7 2020-24 0.97 17.3 7.6 2.15 68.4 72.0 31 37 2025 1350430 6.2 2025-49 0.69 15.0 8.2 2.11 72.3 76.5 16 19 20^0 1603593 53.2 2050-74 0.31 13.1 10.0 2.08 76.8 81.6 5 7 207 132544 64.0 2075-W 0.15 12.4 11.0 2.07 79.3 84.8 3 5 2100 1797519 68.3 2100-24 0.10 12.0 11.1 2.06 81.2 87.4 2 4 2125 1841296 71.4 2125-49 0.05 11.8 11.4 2.06 81.9 88.4 2 3 2150 1862220 73.0 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 { S es~~~6-69 gD ~~~~~55-59 IE l 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 J 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 ASS C7 1) S1 Cs t) ASS C' 44) 41 Csi 7sM A84 C)! so S3 C43 01 AS) C ) 31 ASIA DEPARTMENT V 1. gtimates and Projections So. Growth @0 @0 q Tow Pwietuio ratio Psi-fed ratd, cm cm TFR Mates Fmotme in Ł1000 19l5 169699 73.3 1965-89 1.97 28.9 9.1 3.54 58.3 61.9 71 97 1990 16726 67.6 1990-94 1.73 25.7 8.3 3.05 61.2 64.6 55 n 1995 20422? 61.4 1995-99 1.53 22.9 7.5 2.66 63.9 67.1 43 55 2000 220429 57.1 2000-04 1.32 20.1 6.9 2.32 66.3 69.5 34 42 2005 23S485 52.0 2005-09 1.20 18.8 6.8 2.19 67.5 70.9 30 36 2010 24999 48.1 2010-14 1.14 18.2 6.8 2.17 68.8 72.4 25 31 2015 264409 46.0 2014-19 1.05 17.3 6.8 2.14 70.1 74.0 20 25 2020 276863 45.9 2020-24 0.94 16.3 6.9 2.12 71.4 73.6 16 19 2025 292345 46.8 2025-49 0.64 14.3 7.9 2.09 74.6 79.4 8 10 2050 343013 57.4 2050-74 0.24 12.8 10.4 2.07 78.2 83.5 4 5 2075 364520 65.2 2075-99 0.12 12.3 11.0 2.06 80.1 86.1 3 4 2100 375781 69.5 2100-24 0.07 11.9 11.2 2.06 81.6 88.0 2 3 212 382885 72.1 2125-49 0.04 11.8 11.4 2.06 82.1 88.8 2 3 2150 38448 n.4 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70.74 65-69 60-64 55.59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20.24 15-19 10-14 1 _---- 5-9 0-4 *s s a~~~. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .l*A& 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 o I 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 AN C, UO ASS C c 4.) AS~~ CU.-~~ p.54 CI S 2A) AN MU)3 t 0 Ł, CU T 32 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES AUSTRALIA 1. Recent Trends Not recent cwA (OSM, JH. SI): 14576 N"gin: Dveo ed Co tri e pr capita (U.S. dotll , 196): 12341 Income group: Nis Poplatio mid structu liit of lo _ 1 f f 19 Total Poputation (mid-yew) Thousad 14692 1575 17010 Age structure 0-4 Thouands 1137 1234 1245 5-14 Thousds 250 24 250 15-6 Thouands 9568 104"s 11417 65+ Thousands 140 1594 1140 Delty Pp. per sq. Im. 2 2 2 Urbanizatfon Pecent urban 14 14 14 School-age population 6-11 Thousmd 1535 1454 149 12-17 Thousade 1555 1609 1535 Woman of childbearing ao 15-49 Thousands 3664 4012 4462 Vital ratom d palieV UnlI of _mu 1975-U 1966- 16-3 Aavual growth rate Percent 1.1 1.4 1.5 Fertility Totat fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 2.0 2 0 1.9 Crudc birth rate (CM) Births per 1000 pop. 16 16 15 mortality Life expectancy at birth (e.) oales Years 70.1 71.9 72.9 Females Years 77.0 7s.7 79.5 Infant mortality rate (CI) Per 1000 liv births 12 10 10 Under 5 mortaLity risk (q5) 1000 q5 15 12 12 Crude death rate (CDA) Deaths per 1000 pop. a 8 7 Net migration Thousands 425 611 Govt. assessment of Population growth -ate Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Fertility Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Contr a tion Uhit of memwe Previas Latmt Contraceptive prevalence percent of married 67 Year womn 15-49 using 1971 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pill lud F ele a staritation alte steritization Condom Other mod rn Traditionl 36 AUSTRALIA 2. Projections - NRR-l by 2030 SW. rwth o Tow PgaWatIin rtio w'i ro te C CR TFR Note Fmtsin 1 a1 1990 17010 49.0 1990-94 1.49 14.8 7.1 1.85 74.0 80.4 9 11 1995 16327 49.2 1995-99 1.25 14.1 7.1 1.85 75.0 81.4 8 10 2000 19506 47.9 2000-04 1.04 13.7 7.1 1.89 76.0 82.3 7 9 2005 20551 47.5 2005-09 0.84 13.2 7.3 1.92 76.6 82.9 6 a 2010 21434 48.0 2010-14 0 66 12.8 7.5 1.96 77.3 83.6 5 7 20Th 22158 50.6 2014-19 0.50 12.5 7.7 1.99 77.9 84.i s 6 2020 22715 54.1 2020-24 0.42 12.3 8.1 2.03 78.6 85.0 4 5 2025 23196 58.7 2025-49 0.14 11.9 10.4 Z.07 80.0 86.4 3 4 2050 24043 73.6 2050-74 -0.03 11.8 12.0 2.07 81.3 87.9 2 3 2075 23886 72.9 2075-99 0.02 11.8 11.5 2.07 82.0 8.8 2 3 2100 24031 73.7 2100-24 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.07 U2.5 89.4 2 3 2125 24173 74.3 21;3-49 0.01 11.6 11.5 2.07 U2.7 89.6 2 3 2150 2424 74.7 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 E% llllB ~~~75 + 2R Z l 70-74 EMM llX 65-69 60-64 55.59 50.54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 I T . .. .. . .. . .... lo8 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 al1 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eO Growth rate CoLotry Region Icmem grou.p Country legian Incomw group Country Region Income group 37 BANGLADESH 1. Recent Trends ee0t recent cesu COOOs, Nar. 81): 87120 Regfon: Asia CUW per capita (U.S. dollars, 1966): 168 Incom Group: Low pulation -w structure Unit of massure 1900 1905 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousads 67510 100593 113134 Ag structure 0-4 Thouands 16081 1m7 17538 5-14 Thouswads 24321 28247 31817 15-U Thousands 4125 51488 60432 65. Thousands 2984 3101 3347 Density Pop. per sq. km. 653 751 845 Urbanization Percint urban 10 12 14 School-age population 6-11 Thousands 15135 17448 19698 i2-17 Thousands 12341 14342 16675 Woen of childbearing age 15 -49 Thousands 18720 21914 25781 Vital rates wW policy Unit of measure 1975-80 1960-85 1905-90 Austu growth rate Percent 2.7 2.8 2.4 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per women 6.3 6.0 5.2 Crude birth rate (CUR) Births per 1000 pop. 47 45 38 Mor al ity Life expectancy at birth (e.) males Years 47.4 49.1 51.1 Feales Years 46.1 48.2 50.4 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 Live births 137 128 119 Under 5 mortality risk (qS) 1000 qS 221 204 475 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 19 18 15 Net migration Thousands -35 -130 Govt. asessment of Population growth rate Too high Too high Too high Fertility Too high Too high Too high Contraception Unit of measure Previous Latest Contraceptive prevslence percent of married 25 31 Yer women 10-49 using 1985 1989 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pill 5 9 Lud 1 Fmle sterilzation 8 9 Male sterilization 2 1 Condom 2 2 Gther modern 1 1 Tradition l 6 8 38 BANGLADESH 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2015 DW. g6e-th G SO 0 Year Populatio ratio p1a-d rate CIO cm TFR Nm Frm-tem IM x1000 1990 113134 87.2 1990.94 2.13 34.7 13.1 4.55 52.3 52.0 111 161 1995 125869 77.8 1995-99 1.95 31.5 11.9 3.90 53.9 53.8 100 143 2000 138736 68.6 2000-04 1 84 29.3 10.9 3.46 55.6 55.9 87 124 2005 152071 63.2 2005-09 1.65 26.6 10.0 3.06 57.3 57.8 79 111 2010 165185 58.4 2010-14 1.43 23.6 9.3 2.73 59.1 59.8 71 98 2015 177388 53.8 2014-19 1.20 20.7 8.7 2.42 60.9 61.9 63 86 2020 188321 48.8 2020-24 1.11 19.5 8.3 2.31 62.7 64.1 55 73 2025 199061 45.7 2025-49 0.83 16.8 8.6 2.20 67.4 69.8 3. 44 2050 244895 49.4 2050-74 0.38 14.0 10.2 2.10 73.2 76.7 13 16 2075 269515 58.6 2075-99 0.21 13.0 10.8 2.08 77.1 81.5 7 9 2100 284241 66.1 2100-24 0.14 12.3 10.9 2.06 80.1 85.6 3 4 2125 294580 69.0 2125-49 0.07 12.0 11.3 2.06 81.2 87.2 3 4 2150 300001 71.5 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-69 60-64 55.59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10.14 5-9 0-4 10 86 4 2024 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eO Growth rate Countr-y Region Incom group Country Region Income 2roup Counwtry Region Income group 39 BHUTAN 1. Recent Trends Most rwcat ceam (M0 Dec. 69): 1QS *ejion: Asi UW per capt (U.S. dollars, 1968): ¶78 Incim Oroi: Low PetaOtili d aGe trUt$Ae Ui t of n ur 190 195 190W Total P',putltion (mid-year) Thousands 1165 1286 1434 Ap structur. 0-4 Thousands 180 19 223 5-14 Thousands 289 321 350 15-6 Thousands 657 729 814 65+ Thousands 38 42 48 Deity Pop. per sq. km. 25 27 31 Urbanization Percent urban 4 4 S School-oa population 6-11 Thousnds 190 196 21S 12-17 Thousnds 162 170 189 Women of chitdbearing age 15-49 Thousands 289 302 335 Vital rates wi policy Unit of ensure 1975-30 1960-5 ¶9-90 Avujal growth ratc Percent 2.1 2.0 2.2 Fertility Total fertility rate (Trt) Births por woman 6.0 6.2 5.5 Crude birth rate (CH) Births per 1000 pop. 40 39 39 Mortality Lift expectency at birth (co) Nolte Years 44.6 46.6 48.6 Fislte Years 45.1 45.1 47.1 Infant mortality rate (INR) Per 1000 Live births 147 13V 128 Under 5 mortality risk (qS) 1000 q1 30 215 190 Crude death rOte (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 20 18 17 et oigration Thousands 0 0 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Too low Too Low Too low Fertility Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Cantr. option Lkni t of oeur Previou Lato t Contraceptive prevaolnce percent of married Year wommn 15-49 using Contraeptive mix Percent using Pill lid F _lo xt ri zation Nale sterilization Other modern Traditionel 40 BHUTAN 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2035 Tow PpAeftiu ratio Peiod rate C CD TF9 Naim Fmit iM xlO00m 1990 1434 76.3 1990-94 2.39 40.2 16.3 5.54 49.7 48.4 120 177 1995 1616 78.4 1995-99 2.44 59.6 15.2 5.54 51.2 50.1 109 158 2000 1U26 81.4 2000-04 2.21 35.7 13.7 S.03 53.0 52.1 97 138 2005 2039 W0.8 2005-09 2.02 32.5 12.3 4.52 54.7 54.0 89 127 2010 2255 75.8 2010-14 1.86 30.1 11.3 4.01 56.5 56.0 61 115 2015 2478 69.0 2014-19 1.75 27.8 10.3 3.50 58.4 58.2 74 103 2025 2704 63.7 2020-24 1.62 25.7 9.5 3.06 60.3 60.5 66 91 2025 2933 59.4 2025-49 1.13 19.4 8.2 2.34 65.0 66.6 46 60 2050 3893 45.3 2050-74 0.63 15.0 8.8 2.13 70.9 74.2 22 26 2075 4555 53.2 2075-99 0.30 13.3 10.4 2.09 75.8 79.8 10 13 ?100 4903 64.1 2100-24 0.16 12.5 10.9 2.07 79.6 64.6 3 5 2125 5106 68.0 2125-49 0.09 12.1 11.2 2.06 60.8 86.6 3 4 2150 5221 70.8 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-es 80-64 55.59 50-54 45.49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 1-159 10-14 5-9 o______ _______ 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR e Growth rate Counmtry Region Income group Country legion Income group Country legion Income groW 41 BRUNEI 1. Recent Trends Meet reent cenuA (000.. Aug. 81): 193 Region: Asia OMP per capita (U.S. dollars, 1988): .. Income Group: hih PeuAbtn *m nd strueture Unit of measure 1940 1985 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 186 219 256 Ago structure 0-4 Thousands 30 29 5-14 Thousands 50 56 15- Thousands 133 162 65. Thousands 7 9 Density Pop. per sq. km. 35 42 49 Urbanization Percent urban 60 58 58 School-ag population 6-11 Thousands 30 35 12-17 Thousands 27 30 Women of childbearing age 15-49 Thousands 43 53 Vital rate *nd policy Unit of esure 1975-80 1980-US 19US-90 Amual growth rate Percent 3.5 3.3 3.1 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 4. 3.8 Crude birth rate (CSR) Births per 1000 pop. 32 30 24 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (eo) Males Years 66.8 70.9 72.8 Females Years 68.5 73.8 76.3 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 livu births 24 17 13 Under 5 mortality risk (%) 1000 q5 16 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 4 4 4 Wot migration Thousands 14 13 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Satisfactory FertiLity Satisfactory Contraception Unit of measure Previous Latnst Contraceptive prevalence percent of married Year women 15-49 using Contraceptive mix Percent using Pill lud F m le sterilzation Male sterilization Condom Other modern Traditional 42 BRUNEI 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2010 DO. Growth 0 irs Populat io ratio Priod rate Cm CDR TFr Nale F_mmt In 1000 1990 256 58.4 1990*94 2.75 23.6 3.3 3.25 74.3 78.3 10 13 1995 294 55.8 1995 -99 2.28 21.7 3.3 2.85 75.6 80.1 9 11 2000 330 51.7 2000-04 1.81 19.2 3.4 2.50 76.8 81.6 7 9 2005 361 50.2 2005-09 1.33 16.6 3.8 2.19 77.3 82.3 6 8 2010 386 47.4 2010-14 1.13 15.6 4.3 2.07 77.9 83.0 6 7 2015 408 45.5 2014-19 1.05 15.3 4.8 2.07 78.5 83.7 5 6 2020 430 46.9 2020-24 0.95 14.9 5.4 2.07 79.1 84.4 4 5 2025 451 51.3 2025-49 0.54 13.2 7.9 2.06 80.4 86.0 3 4 2050 516 63.5 2050-74 0.18 12.1 10.3 2.06 81.5 87.7 2 3 2075 540 71.6 2075-99 0.05 11.8 11.3 2.06 82.1 88.6 2 3 2100 547 73.5 2100-24 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 82.6 89.3 2 3 2125 550 74.3 2125-49 0.01 11.6 11.5 2.06 82.8 89.6 2 3 2150 552 74.6 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 85-69 80-84 55-5 9 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 R2RRERERE BBB 1 ~~5-9 Rgg 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eO Growth rate Country Region Income *atu Cowmtry Region Income grou.p Co,atry Region Ircome group '3 CHINA (excluding Taiwan) 1. Recent Trends mte reeont cnsui (00tc Jul. U2) 1031665 lgion: Asia W P air capita (U.S. dttars, 16): 334 Incom Grosp: Low PapmAatlen ad no struture UnIt of *awur 1900 1906 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 981235 104456 1121960 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 96995 9196J 109593 5-14 ThousHwn 251160 218664 166U1 15-64 Thousands 586730 678705 759660 65+ Thousando 46330 55267 65906 Donsity Pop. per sq. km. 106 112 121 Urbanlautfon Percent urban 19 37 56 School-age population 6-11 Thousands 149611 124518 107373 12-1T Thouswnds 115315629 130809 Wmen of childbaring a 15-49 Thousands 236649 271336 306297 vital ratm ond pDOicy unit of maourm 1975-OO 1960-5 195-90 Annual growth rate Percent 1.4 1.3 1.4 Fertillty Total fortilfty rate (TFI) Births per women 2.7 2.3 2.4 Crude birth rate (C4P) B1rtho per 1000 pop. 19 21 21 Nortality Life expectancy at birth (es) NMtes Years 65.0 66.4 68.4 FemaeLs Yers 67.2 69.3 70.6 Infant mortality rate (INN) Per 1000 live births 39 39 32 Under S ortatity risk (q,) 1000 qS S 55 39 Crude death rate (CDO) Deaths per 1000 pop. 7 7 7 Met migration Thourande -250 -325 Govt * asessment of Population growth rate Too high Too high Too high Fertftity Too high Too high Too high Contra eption Unit of *o ur PrevioLs Lato t Contraeptive prevatlnce percent of married 69 81 YeTr women 15-49 using 1982 1965 Contraceptive mix Porcent using Pilt 6 5 lud 35 32 f _m t stertlzation 16 30 Male starilisation 7 9 Condom 1 3 Other odern 0 0 Traditional 0 0 66 CHINA (excluding Taiwan) 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2000 Sap. c sGith Tow. PuIAtlon ratio Period rate 0 Cm TF4 Nl_n Fol Io to lO00 1W0 1121960 47.7 1990-94 1.37 20.4 6.7 2.28 69.6 71.7 27 32 1995 1201556 48.5 199S-9 1.19 18.6 6.6 2.16 70.9 73.0 22 26 2000 1275464 50.1 2000-04 1.00 16.6 6.5 2.11 72.2 74.4 18 22 2005 1341017 48.0 2005-09 0.86 15.3 6.7 2.10 73.1 75.5 15 19 2010 1399864 45.1 2010-14 0.79 14.8 6.9 2.10 74.1 76.7 13 16 2015 14S6442 *4.4 2014-19 0.75 14.7 7.1 2.09 75.1 77.9 10 13 2020 1S12424 47.4 2020-24 0.70 14.3 7.3 2.08 76.1 79.3 8 10 2025 1566159 50.2 2025-49 0.38 13.0 9.2 2.07 78.2 82.3 4 6 2050 1720696 64.0 2050-74 0.12 12.3 11.1 2.06 80.3 85.4 3 4 2075 M7847 69.3 2075-W 0.07 12.0 11.3 2.06 81.3 87.2 2 4 2100 1804227 72.2 2100-24 0.04 11.8 11.3 2.06 82.2 88.6 2 3 2125 1824474 73.4 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.5 89.1 2 3 2150 1834915 74.2 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ 70-74 65-69 i lB eo~~~8-64 12gE 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 36-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5.9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 1 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eo Growth rate Country Region Income group Country RegicAl icmem group Country Region Income group 45 FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA 1. Recent Trends oct recent newon R gion: Asfa AMP per capita (U.S. dollers, 1966): Income roup: High Poutation n * stnxture Unit of measure 1960 195 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 76 91 105 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 13 16 5-14 Thousands 28 28 15-64 Thous Xd 48 58 65. Thousards 3 4 Density Pop. per sq. km. Urbanization Percent urban School-ag population 6-11 Thousands 17 17 12-17 Thousands 14 16 Womsn of childboering ag 15-49 Thousonds 20 25 vital rat" *nd po icy Unit of measur 1975-80 1960-85 1965-90 Amual growth rate Percent 3.5 2.9 Fertitity TotaL fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman n 4.5 4.5 Crude birth rate (CBR) Births per 1000 pop. 32 33 MortaLity Life expectancy at birth (es) Nales Years 68.8 70.1 F _ les Years 72.8 76.1 Infant mortaLity rate (IMR) Per 1000 Live births 30 2S Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q5 31 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 5 4 Net migration Thousands Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Fertility Contraception Unit of meaur Previous Latast Contraceptive prevelmnce percent of nerried Year womn 15-49 using Contraceptive oIx Percent using Pitt Iud F mele sterilization Male steritizatfon CondoM Other modern TraditionsL 46 FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2020 . Growth *0 Towi Pipuatimn ratio Period rate CU CDt TFR ales Fimta in x1000 1990 105 82.7 1990-94 2.84 32.4 4.0 4.14 70.8 77.9 21 25 1995 121 74.9 1995-99 2.64 30.2 3.8 3.77 71.6 79.5 17 20 2000 138 73.8 2000-04 2.36 27.2 3.6 3.41 72.6 80.9 14 17 2005 156 69.0 2005-09 1.99 23.5 3.6 2.94 73.5 81.7 12 14 2010 172 61.4 2010-14 1.70 20.5 3.6 2.54 74.4 82.4 10 12 2015 187 54.3 2014-19 1.45 18.2 3.6 2.20 75.4 83.2 a 10 2020 201 49.4 2020-24 1.36 17.3 3.7 2.07 76.3 84.0 6 7 2025 216 47.4 2025-49 0.98 15.0 5.3 2.06 78.4 85.7 3 5 2050 275 54.4 2050-74 0.40 12.6 8.6 2.06 80.4 87.5 3 4 2075 305 69.9 2075-99 0.09 11.9 11.1 2.06 81.4 88.5 2 3 2100 311 73.1 2100-24 0.04 11.7 11.3 2.06 82.2 89.2 2 3 2125 315 73.7 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.5 89.5 2 3 2150 316 74.4 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ 70-74 65-89 80.64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 E>xxXx2Rxx ZUgUgggl10-14 |RR U 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eo Growth rate Country Rgion Incom group Country Region Income group Country Region Incom group 47 FIJI 1. Recent Trends Noet recent censu (000., Au. 6): 715 keoion: Aio me pr cpita (U.S. dotors, 1968): 1518 Incom Group: Lower-middle PopALation wo o structure Unit of meure 1900 19 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 634 700 752 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 8 9 92 5-14 Thousonds 149 161 182 15-64 Thousands 376 415 448 65+ Thousands 21 24 30 Dansity Pop. per sq. km. 35 38 41 Urbanizatian Percent urban 39 41 44 School-age population 6-11 Thousands 90 99 112 12-17 Thousands 87 8S 94 Women of chfldbearing ag 15-49 Thousands 16S 180 191 Vital rat *nd policy Unit of movure 1975-0 19130-15 10-90 Auuso growth rate Percent 1.9 2.0 1.4 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFP) Births per women 3.6 3.5 3.3 Crude birth rate (C4R) ifrtha per 1000 pop. 27 31 27 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (e,) Nales Years 65.5 67.0 68.2 F iles Tears 69.0 71.0 72.7 Infant mortalfty rate (INN) Per 1000 live births 37 31 21 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 qS 45 37 26 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 7 5 Net migration Thouands -10 -26 Govt. assssmnt of Population growth rate Too high Too high Satisfactory Fertility Too high Too high Too high Contr qctpion Unit of measur Previom Lat_ t Contraceptive provalence percent of m_rried 41 38 Tear women 15-44 using 1974 1978 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pill 9 8 lud 5 S F me t sterilzation 15 17 alae sterilization 0 Condom 6 6 Other modern 0 2 Tradition lS 48 FIJI 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2005 lap. sr - m Tow Ppel. sei. Polled "to Wi TR ktim Fmm lo zIO S 1990 732 67.8 ¶990-94 1.11 22.3 4.9 2.35 69.1 74.0 17 21 1995 795 62.3 199-99 0.63 19.7 5.0 2.51 70.2 75.4 14 17 2000 *29 54.1 2000-04 0.76 17.6 5.1 2.20 71.5 76.9 12 14 2005 "I1 48.9 2005-09 0.60 17.4 5.4 2.09 72.4 77.9 10 13 2010 696 46.6 2010-14 0.65 17.1 s.7 2.09 73.4 78.9 9 11 2015 9S 47.4 2014-19 0.63 16.2 6.0 2.06 74.4 80.0 7 9 2020 973 49.7 2020-24 0.77 15.0 6.4 2.06 75.5 81.1 6 6 2025 1013 52.2 2025-49 0.55 13.4 7.9 2.07 77.6 63.6 4 5 2050 1164 62.6 2050-74 0.18 12.2 10.4 2.06 60.0 66.3 3 4 207n 1218 69.0 207n-99 0.07 12.0 11.2 2.06 61.2 67.6 2 4 2100 1239 72.2 2100-24 0.04 ¶1.6 11.4 2.06 62.1 66.9 2 3 2125 1253 73.5 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 62.5 69.3 2 3 21S0 1259 74.3 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70.74 65-69 60-64 55.59 50.54 45.49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25629 20-24 15-19 10.14 5-9 0-4 . . . , , 0 4.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR so Growth rate S~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ComtIy Rtegion Incam roup Cosmtry legion Incom group Country Region Incem gru '9 FRENCH POLYNESIA 1. Recont Trends Meat recent cens4s (000.. Oct. 83): 167 Regions Asia CP per capita (U.S. doLlars, 196U): .. Income Group: High Population nd *e structuro Unit of wmasur 1960 195 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 1SV 171 197 Age structure 0-4 Thousnds 21 25 5-14 Thouand 51 49 15-64 Thousands 95 117 65. Thouands 5 7 Donsity Pop. per sq. km. 43 47 54 Urbanization Percent urban 60 62 65 School-oe population 6-11 Thousands 31 29 12-11 Thousndb 27 30 Woman of chilcbearing ao 15-49 Thousands 40 S0 Vital rato ad policy Unit of mwure 1975-80 19We-05 1965-90 Amuol grcwth rate Percent 3.0 1.7 2.8 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per wom n 3.6 Crude iirth rate (CUR) Births per 1000 pop. 33 30 27 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (eo) les Years .. .. 70.1 Femles years 74.0 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 Live births 23 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q5 28 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 7 5 4 NHt migration Thousands 5 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Fertility Contraception Unit of waour Previeu Latest Contraceptive prevalence percent of married Year woman 15-49 using Contraceptive mix Percent using PILL lud F emlo steritzatiOn Nale sterilization Condm Other modern Troditioral 50 FRENCH POLYNESIA 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2010 Di. -Au b b t Ywr Pplatiln ratfo friud rate C CW TFR Ws Fmtm in 1x1040 1990 197 66.4 190-94 2.72 27.4 4.0 3.19 71.3 76.4 19 23 199 226 59.7 M5-9 2.41 25.4 3.9 2.81 72.5 78.4 1S 19 2000 255 60.1 2000-04 1.95 21.9 3.9 2.48 73.8 W0.1 13 15 2005 2d1 58.1 2005-09 1.50 18.3 4.0 2.19 74.6 80.9 11 13 2010 302 52.9 2010-14 1.26 16.8 4.2 2.08 75.4 81.7 9 11 2015 322 48.0 2014-19 1.20 16.6 4.6 2.08 76.3 82.6 7 9 2020 342 45.8 2020-24 1.13 16.2 4.9 2.07 77.2 83.4 5 7 2025 362 45.8 2025-49 0.74 13.8 6.5 2.06 79.0 85.3 3 5 2050 435 60.4 2050-74 0.24 12.3 9.9 2.06 80.7 87.3 3 4 207S 462 70.8 2075-99 0.07 11.9 11.3 2.06 81.6 88.4 2 3 2100 470 73.0 2100-24 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 82.3 89.2 2 3 2125 474 73.9 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.6 89.5 2 3 2150 476 74.4 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 | gXX§iDg 2U§§m22 25-29 54 Wm 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR e0 Growth rate Coun~try Region Income group Coun~try Region Income group Country Region Income grou.p 59 JAPAN 1. Recent Trends Nest recent censu (0CCs, Oct. 85): 121049 Region: Dveloped Countrfeo IMP per capita (U.S. doltars, 1968): 21022 Income Group: Nigh Poputation ond * structure Ui t of *mewe 19JO 1965 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 116782 120754 123504 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 8591 7445 6826 5-14 Thousands 18915 18538 15942 15-64 Thousands 78718 82333 86048 65+ Thousands 10558 12440 14688 Doenity Pop. per sq. km. 310 321 328 Urbaniuztion Percent urban 76 77 77 School-ge population 6-11 Thousands 11446 10910 9158 12-17 Thousands 10362 11579 11315 Women of chilcbearing age 15-49 Thousands 30624 30746 31392 Vitel rates and policy Unit of measure 1975-60 19l8-65 1965-90 Arnal growth rate Percent 0.8 0.7 0.5 FertiLity Total fortility rate (TFR) Births per women 1.8 1.8 1.7 Crude birth rate (CBR) Births per 1000 pop. 15 13 11 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (a0) MaLos Years 72.6 74.2 75.4 FereOew Years 77.8 79.7 81.1 Infant mortaLity rate (INR) Per 1000 live births 9 7 5 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q5 12 9 7 Crude death rate (CMR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 6 6 7 Not migration Thousands 0 -15 Covt assessment of Population growth rate Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Fortility Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Contraception Unit of *o Previou Lat_ t Contraceptive prevalence percent of merried 56 64 Year womn 15-49 using 1981 1986 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pill .. 1 lud 4 F _mlo sterfization 8 aloe sterilization 2 Condom 45 Other modern I Traditional 15 60 JAPAN 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2030 Se. GSrot sO b Tes Pepd atin ratlo Period rate Ca c TFR Holm Fmtes IF xlO00 1990 123504 43.5 1990-94 0.42 11.4 7.2 1.68 76.4 82.2 4 6 1995 126112 45.0 1995-99 0.41 11.7 7.6 1.68 77.4 83.2 4 6 2000 128723 49.4 2000-04 0.32 11.3 8.1 1.75 78.2 84.1 4 5 2005 130776 54.7 2005-09 0.17 10.8 9.1 1.81 78.7 84.6 4 5 2010 131888 60.0 2010-14 0.02 10.4 10.2 7.87 79.1 85.1 3 5 2015 132024 66.5 2014-19 -0.07 10.4 11.1 1.93 79.6 85.7 3 4 2020 131543 69.5 2020-24 -0.11 10.6 11.8 1.98 80.1 86.2 3 4 2025 130795 70.1 2025-49 -0.19 11.0 12.9 2.06 81.0 87.3 3 4 2050 124749 80.2 2050-74 -0.15 11.5 13.0 2.06 81.8 88.5 2 3 2075 120197 75.0 2075-99 0.00 11.7 11.7 2.06 82.3 89.1 2 3 2100 120073 74.4 2100-24 0.02 11.6 11.5 2.06 82.7 89.5 2 3 2125 120579 74.5 2125-49 0.01 11.6 11.5 2.06 82.8 89.7 2 3 2150 120868 74.9 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-89 60-84 55-59 50.54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 32g %m 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 81l 4. Comparison of Country with Regi.on and Income Group, 1985-90 TPR e0 Growth rate . *.a Coun~try Region Income group Country Region Income group Coantry Region Income group 61 KAMPUCHEA, DEM. 1. Ree˘nt Trends est recent CenA (CM, Apr. 62): S729 Region: Asie UP psr capita (U.. dollars, 1968): .. Income Group: Low Pepulation *nd * structure Unit of measure lUg 1965 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 6400 7284 8243 Age structurw 0-4 Thousands 359 1259 1357 514 Thousands 1748 1112 1515 15-64 Thousnds 4133 4721 5131 65+ Thousands 160 192 240 Doenity Pop. per sq. km. 36 41 47 Urbanization Percent urban 10 11 12 School-ao population 6-11 Thousands 993 502 956 12-17 Thousands 1052 1093 595 Am -n of childbearing age 15-49 Thousands 1813 2060 2228 Vital rates *n policy Unit of measure 1975-80 1900-J5 1965-90 Amvusl growth rate Percent -2.1 2.6 2.5 Fertility Totcl fortility rate (TFR) Births per woman 4.1 5.1 4.7 Crude birth rate (CBR) Births per 1000 pop. 30 46 41 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (eo) Malos Years 30.0 42.0 47.0 Females Years 32.5 44.9 49.9 Infant ortality rate CIMR) Per 1000 live births 263 160 130 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 qS 387 239 193 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 40 20 17 Net migretion Thousands 0 0 Govt. assesment of Population growth rate Too Low Too low Too low Fortility Too Low Too Low Too low Cantr msption Unit of *mure Previoue Latest Contraceptive provalence percent of married Yar womn 15-49 using Contraceptive mix Percent using Pill lud Finle sterltzation olte sterilization CMA Other modern Troditional 62 KAMPUCHEA, DEM. 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2015 00- to*o 8 Yewr Population ratio Ptriod rote cm CDR TF4 ma" i Fmlte lo X1000 1990 8243 60.7 1990-94 2.10 34.9 13.9 4.20 50.1 53.4 108 156 199S 9156 80.7 1995-99 1.55 27.0 11.5 3.69 53.2 56.8 89 127 2000 9893 69.8 2000-04 1.25 22.5 10.0 3.20 56.2 60.1 74 103 2005 10529 57.6 2005-09 1.19 21.7 9.7 2.77 57.9 61.9 67 92 2010 11177 49.5 2010-14 1.14 20.9 9.5 2.40 59.6 63.8 60 81 2015 11832 47.5 2014-19 1.10 20.4 9.4 2.27 61.3 65.8 53 70 2020 12501 49.0 2020-24 0.98 19.0 9.2 2.23 63.2 67.9 46 59 2025 13132 50.1 2025-49 0.67 15.9 9.2 2.14 67.8 73.0 28 35 2050 15536 47.4 2050-74 0.37 13.7 10.0 2.09 73.4 79.1 10 12 2075 17045 59.4 2073-W 0.20 12.8 10.8 2.07 77.2 83.2 6 7 2100 17934 66.7 2100-24 0.13 12.2 10.9 2.06 80.2 86.5 3 4 2125 18547 70.0 212S-49 0.07 11.9 11.3 2.06 81.3 87.8 2 3 2150 18857 72.1 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 70-74 65-69 430-654 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 R S5 R gm30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 lO 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eO Growth rate Coun~try Region Income group Country Region Income group Coun~try Region Income grou.p 63 KIRIBATI 1. Recent Trends Nast recent censA (OMOt, Nay. 5): 464 Pgioni Asia UHF per capita (U.S dollars. 19o): 649 Income Groups: Lower-middle Pputlatin *wn o structure Unt of m*mr 1980 195 1990 Total Population (omd-year) Thosnd 58 64 70 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 9 11 5-14 Thousands 15 17 15-s4 Thousands 37 40 65+ Thousando 2 2 Don Ity Pop. per sq. km. 2 90 9 Urbmnization Percent urban 32 34 36 School-age population 6-11 Thousands 10 12-17 Thouands 10 9 Wmn of childbearing ag 15-49 Thousands 16 17 Vitel rst and policy lnit of ammur 1975-0 I -U 1906-90 Armuol growth rate Percent 1.8 1.9 1.9 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per women 4.4 Crude birth rate (CUR) Births per 1000 pop. 35 Mortality Life expetancy at birth (so) mates Years 52.0 Females Years 57.0 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 live births 62 Under 5 mortality risk (qc) 1000 q5 95 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 12 Met migration Thousands -1.3 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate roo high Too high Fertility Too high Too high Contr eoptIon UnIt of *oo Previou Latest Contraceptive prevalnco percent of married Year women 15-49 using Contraceptive mix Percent using Pill lud F _ lo steriIzation Nloe sterilization Condom Other modern Traditional 64 KIRIDATI 2. Projections - NRRil by 2020 T1r p_iLtIa tatio Peiod rate C TFR lbn Fmir In s ^i 1990 70 75.5 199094 1.67 32.4 10.7 4.04 53.6 60.4 53 so 199 77 76.4 1995-99 1.72 29.0 9.6 3.67 55.4 63.7 45 65 2000 64 73.6 2000-06 1.56 26.0 8.8 3.31 57.3 66.7 37 51 2005 91 65.9 2005-09 1.40 23.4 8.3 2.91 56.9 A.3 35 48 2010 96 57.8 2010-14 1.31 21.5 7.6 2.56 60.5 70.0 33 44 2015 104 53.9 2014-19 1.21 19.5 7.4 2.25 62.3 71.7 32 41 2020 1II 49.8 2020-24 1.14 18.5 7.1 2.14 ".61 3.s 30 3 2025 117 W.5 2025-49 0.66 16.0 7.s 2.10 68.6 77.7 20 25 2050 1" 48.9 205074 0.41 13.6 9.5 2.07 74.0 82.4 7 9 2075 161 62.4 2075-99 0.16 12.7 10.9 2.07 77.6 65.3 4 6 2100 169 6.1 2100-24 0.12 12.1 10.9 2.06 60.4 67.6 3 4 2125 174 70.6 2125-49 0.06 11.9 11.3 2.06 M1.4 6.5 2 3 2150 177 72.5 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-89 60-64 55.59 50-54 45-49 93 _ 40-44 ES 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 R5 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 a 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-9o TFR *0 Growth rate *~ 9.S Comatry Regfon Income group Cointry RegIon Income groupC Co~mtry Rtegfon Income group . . . .. .~~~~~~~~6 KOREA, DEM. PEOPLE'S REP. OF 1. Recent Trends 16ost rceWnt CenA (0005 ay. 4) Region: Asia UM per capita (U.S. dollars 196): Incom Group: No date Poplotion w u p structure Unit of _mmur 1960 195 i990 Total Populatlon (mid-year) Thous ad 18260 19888 21442 Ag* structure 0-4 Thousands 2678 2767 2028 5-14 Thousands 4685 4921 5307 15.64 Thousands 10254 11483 13225 65. Thouans 662 717 Sa1 Denity Pop. per sq. km. 152 165 178 Urbonization Percent urban 60 64 67 School-ae population 6-11 Thousands 2809 3000 3235 12-17 Thousands 2489 2712 2942 Woman of childbotring age 15-49 Thousnds 4425 4984 5701 Vital ratm erd policy Unit of ssure 1975-80 1960-85 191l-90 Amumtl growth rate Percent 2.0 1.7 1.5 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 3.4 2.8 2.5 Crude birth rate (CBM) Births per 1000 pop. 23 22 20 Mortlifty Life expectancy at birth to) MaLso Years 62.4 64.6 66.2 Fmemles Years 68.8 71.0 72.7 Infant mortality rate CINR) Per 1000 live births 35 30 28 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q5 48 39 34 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 6 6 5 Net migration Thousands 0 0 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Too low Too ow Too Low Fertility Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Contraceptifn init of eu Previous Latest Contraceptive prevalerce percent of mrried Year womn 15-49 using Contraceptive mix Percent using Pill lud Feale steriLzation Kale sterflization Condom Other modern Traditional 66 KOREA, DEN. PEOPLE'S REP. OF 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 1995 kp. Growth Yer fqpuItuin ratio Pwriod rats D Cm TFU N lm F_lm in x1000 1990 2i442 62.1 1990-94 1.48 19.7 5.0 2.22 67.6 75.2 24 29 1995 23087 52.8 IM-99 1.44 19.2 4.8 2.11 69.1 77.3 20 24 2000 24806 45.2 2000-04 1.42 19.0 4.8 2.10 70.6 79.2 17 20 2005 26632 46.2 2005-09 1.28 17.9 5.0 2.09 71.6 80.0 14 17 2010 28396 46.6 2010-14 1.09 16.2 5.3 2.09 72.6 80.9 12 15 2015 29989 46.6 2014-19 0.92 14.9 5.6 2.08 73.7 81.8 9 12 2020 31408 46.4 2020-24 0.82 14.2 6.0 2.07 74.8 82.8 7 9 2025 32716 48.3 2025-49 0.53 13.2 7.9 2.07 77.3 84.9 4 5 2050 37322 69.0 2050-74 0.12 12.2 11.0 2.06 79.8 87.0 3 4 2075 38423 70.4 2075-99 0.07 11.9 11.2 2.06 81.1 88.2 2 3 2100 39090 72.7 2100-24 0.04 11.8 11.3 2.06 82.0 89.1 2 3 2125 39511 73.5 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.4 89.5 2 3 2150 39712 74.3 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-69 & SS do~~~6-64 3 E 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 { RD{{§§ UUgU2 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eo Growth rate Country Region income grow Country Region Income group Cowatry Region Income group 67 KOREA, REP. OF 1. Recent Trend. Nest rcent ceus (000s, Nov. 85): 4JM4 legione Asia IW p-r capits (U.S. delwas 1966): 360 Income Grop: Upper-midte Peatimn ud M struture _ n ht of _ 1o0 1919 Totat Populttion (mid-year) Thousands 38M12 40806 42790 Age structure 0-4 Thousnds 492 3718 3332 5-14 Thousnds 69 8511 7636 13-64 Thousnds 23710 26828 29695 65 Thousnds 1453 149 2127 Dnity Pop. per q. km. 8 413 433 Urbanization Percent uran 57 65 72 School population 6-11 Thousnb 5194 5006 453 12-17 Thousnds 59 5391 5126 wme of childbeerinr age 15-49 Thoua 99"66 11113 1206 vital rates wid policy Uift of _ur 1979-U0 19- 1U-0 AAl growth rate Percent 1.5 1.4 1.0 Fertility Total fertility rate (TCF) Births per woman 2.8 2.4 1 Crud birth rate (CUM) Births per 1000 pop. 24 21 16 itortlity Life expectancy at birth Coo) altes Years 62.4 6.6 66.2 Feletos Years 68.8 71.0 72.5 infant mortality rate (INS) Per 1000 live births 35 30 25 Undlr 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q5 48 39 30 Crude dsth rate (CDR) Doeths per 1000 pap. 7 6 6 Net migration Thousnds 17S -17S Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Too high Too high Too high Fertility Too high Too high Satisfactory cntrc Iton Unit of _Preious Latmt Contraceptive pretvce percent of mrried 55 70 Year women 15-44 usirn 1979 19 Contraceptive mix Percent msing Pill 7 4 lud 10 7 Filo steriltiation 14 32 Male sterilization 6 9 Condm 5 a Oth modern 2 Traditfl 12 68 KOREA, REP. OF 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2030 SIP. anut 0 o S q5 Ya PuAstio ratio Pwid rote TFR kt" Femo In xlOSO 1990 42790 44.1 1990-94 0.90 16.0 6.1 1.75 67.8 74.0 21 25 1995 44770 40.7 1995-99 0.85 15.5 6.2 1.75 69.4 7!.6 17 20 Z000 46720 40.0 2000-04 0.77 14.6 6.3 1.60 71.0 77.1 14 17 2005 484 41.7 2005-09 0.63 13.6 6.8 1.86 72.0 78.1 12 15 2010 50107 42.5 2010-14 0.52 12.8 7.3 1.91 73.0 79.1 10 13 2015 51417 43.5 2014-19 0.43 12.5 7.9 1.96 74.0 80.1 8 10 2020 52543 45.9 2020-24 0J6 12.4 8.4 2.00 71.1 81.3 6 8 2025 53561 51.6 2025-49 0.13 12.0 10.7 2.06 77.5 83.8 4 5 2050 55320 n.8 20o-74 -0.05 12.0 12.5 2.06 79.9 86.3 3 4 2075 545 71.2 2075-99 0.04 11.9 11.5 2.06 81.1 87.8 2 4 2100 S5263 n.6 2100-24 0.04 11.8 11.3 2.06 82.0 88.9 2 3 2S SS862 73.5 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.4 89.3 2 3 2150 56173 74.2 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 756+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55.59 50-54 45-49 23; ||3 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR e 0 Growth rate Countr-y Region lnIn -ups Country Region Income grow~ Country ReIion lincome group 69 LAO PEOPLE'S DEM. REP. 1. Recent Trends Nest recent census (00s Nar. 85): 35U Region: Asia 0MP per capita (U.S. dollars, 1966): 219 Income Group: Low Population *n _ structure Unit of measure 195 1965 1990 Totat Population (mid-year) Thouwsnds 3205 3594 4186 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 532 622 799 5-14 Thousands 816 912 1055 15-64 Thousands 1769 1957 2206 65+ Thousands as 103 125 Dons ity Pop. per sq. km. 14 16 18 Urbanization Percent urban 13 16 19 School-age population 6-11 Thousands 501 560 657 12-17 Thousands 429 471 531 Women of childcbering ae 15-49 Thousands 751 834 942 Vital rtoo and policy Unit of mesure 1975-80 1960-5 1986-90 Amual growth rate Percent 1.2 2.3 3.1 Fortility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 6.7 6.7 6.7 Crude birth rate (CBR) Births per 1000 pop. 45 45 48 Mortality Life expectoncy at birth (c0) Males Years 42.1 44.5 47.0 Fem les Years 45.0 47.5 50.0 infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 live births 135 122 110 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q5 201 192 183 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 21 19 17 Net migration Thousands -20 -5 Govt. ass*ssment of Population growth rate Too low Too Low Too low Fertility Too low Too low Satisfactory Contraeption Unit of measur Previous Lat_t Contraceptive prevalence percent of worried Yoer women 15-49 using Contraceptive mix Percent using PiLL lud F em e sterillation Nate steritization Condom Other modern Traditional 70 LAO PEOPLE DEN. REP. 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2035 IQP. ErmAth 0 Oq 1wr Pqutitlan ratio Paiod rate CU CDR TFU Nal_. F_ls In zINO 1990 4186 89.7 1990-94 2.87 43.5 14.7 6.18 50.1 53.1 97 159 1995 4831 93.1 1995 -99 2.71 39.6 12.5 5.67 53.1 56.3 84 135 2000 5532 92.3 2000-04 2.61 36.8 10.7 5.16 56.1 59.4 72 112 2005 6304 85.1 2005-09 2.50 34.8 9.7 4.65 57.8 61.2 65 100 2010 7144 79.3 2010-14 2.37 32.6 8.9 4.14 59.5 63.2 59 88 2015 8044 74.7 2014-19 2.16 29.7 8.0 3.63 61.3 65.2 53 75 2020 8963 70.0 2020-24 1.88 26.1 7.2 3.11 63.1 67.3 46 63 2025 9849 64.1 2025-49 1.30 19.2 6.3 2.26 67.7 72.5 29 36 2050 13641 45.4 2050-74 0.73 14.7 7.5 2.09 73.3 78.7 11 13 2075 16364 54.2 2075-99 0.31 13.0 9.9 2.07 77.2 82.9 6 7 2100 1W678 66.1 2100-24 0.14 12.3 10.9 2.06 60.2 86.3 3 4 2125 18294 70.0 2125-49 0.07 12.0 11.3 2.06 81.2 87.7 2 4 2150 18602 72.0 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-69 E § 5~~~60-64 { 55.59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Grour:, 1985-90 TFR eo Growth rate Country Region Income group~ Coun~try Region Income grou.p Coun~try Region Income group 7 1 MACAO 1. Recent Trends Nest recent ensA (000u . Mor. 81): 248 Region: Asia UP pOf capita (U.S. dollarse 1966): .. Incom Group: Upper-middle Pcaptatien *W _ structure Unit of *mwure 1960 1966 1990 Total Population (mid-yer) Thousands 323 392 46S Age structure 0-4 Thousands 31 45 5-14 Thouands . o8 68 15-64 Thousands . 271 319 65. Thousands 30 34 Denslty Pop. per sq. km. 16150 19600 23250 Urbanization Percent urban 98 99 99 School-ag population 6-11 Thousandc . 36 41 12-17 Thousands . 36 38 Wman of childearlng ag 15-49 Thousr nd 102 116 Vital rates wd policy Unit of mssure 1973-U0 1960C 1966-90 Anmal growth rate Percent 4.3 3*9 3.4 Fertility Total fortility rate (TFR) Birthe per woman 3.8 2.2 Crude birth rate (CMA) Births per 1000 pop. 27 25 20 Mortality Life expectncy et birth (eo) Males Years 62.0 65.6 68.2 F m lto Yoers 67.6 69.5 73.5 Infant mortality rate (mIM) Per 1000 live births 12 Under 5 mortLity risk (q5) ¶000 q 15 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 8 7 8 Met migration Thousands 48 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Frtitity Contr cep itn Unit of *o ur Previou Lato t Controceptive prevalence percent of m_rried Yoor women 15-49 using Contraceptive mix Percent using Pill lud Fmle ster lIzation aloe sterilization Ce... Other modern Traditional 72 MACAO 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 1990 1101. Growth a,41 q Ya IDAstion ratio Pwid rote E c TF4 Nias FUlms In xurn 1990 665 46.0 1990-94 1.96 16.7 6.9 2.09 70.4 76.0 10 12 l995 S13 47.2 199S-99 1.30 14.9 6.4 2.09 72.3 78.1 8 11 2000 547 46.7 2000-04 0.75 13.7 6.2 2.06 73.9 79.6 7 9 2005 s5 42.4 2005-09 0.69 13.6 6.7 2.06 74.7 80.6 6 a 2010 su 40.4 2010-14 0.68 13.8 7.0 2.06 75.5 61.5 6 7 2015 606 4.0 2014-19 0.63 13.6 7.3 2.07 76.4 82.3 5 7 2020 628 50.6 2020-24 0.53 13.0 7.7 2.07 77.2 83.2 4 6 2025 665 60.3 2025-49 0.12 12.2 11.0 2.07 79.0 65.2 3 5 2050 664 66.2 2050-74 0.07 12.0 11.3 2.06 60.7 67.2 3 4 2075 676 69.9 2075-99 0.06 11.9 11.3 2.06 81.6 66.3 2 3 2100 665 72.7 2100-24 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 62.3 69.1 2 3 2125 691 73.9 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 62.6 89.5 2 3 2150 694 74.5 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 85.69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45.49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 6 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR e0 Growth rate Casatry legfon Incasi grou.p Cos.untry legIon Incomi group Country legion Income gr.p 73 MALAYSIA 1. Recent Trends NMot recent canon (OO0e Jun. 80): 13183 Region: Asia OW per capita (U.S. dollers, 1966): 1936 Income Grop: Lower-middle Population m*d a structur Unit of m* re 1960 19U5 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 13764 15682 17783 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 1868 2202 2511 5.14 Thousnds 3545 3721 4050 15-64 Thousands 7848 9166 10549 65. Thousands 503 593 673 Density Pop. per sq. km. 42 48 54 Urbanization Percent urban 34 38 42 School-ae population 6-11 Thousands 2149 2228 2462 12-17 Thouswnds 1957 2146 2220 Wome of childbarirng ae 15-49 Thousands 3406 3985 4543 Vital rat" wnd policy unit of smaure 1975-80 1980-U5 19U5-90 Arnual growth rate Percent 2.3 2.6 2.5 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 4.2 3.9 3.8 Crude birth rate (CMS) Births per 1000 pop. 30 30 31 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (a0) Males Years 63.5 66.0 67.5 Fe ales Years 67.1 70.0 71.6 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 live births 34 28 24 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q5 46 41 29 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 7 6 6 Net migration Thousands -15 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Satisfactory Too high Satisfactory Fertility Satisfactory Too high Too high Contraception Unit of mauwe Previoum Latest Contraceptive prevalence percent of married 35 51 Year women 15-44 using 1974 1984 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pill 17 12 lud 1 2 Female sterilzation 4 8 Me sterilization 0 0 Condm 3 6 Other modern 0 1 Traditional 10 13 74 MALAYSIA 2. Projections - NRR=1 by 2010 Dp. Grout Go O S Tow Poputation ratio Period rate CCt CDR FR Natm F_mla lO x1000 1990 17783 68.6 1990-94 2.31 28.4 5.1 3.44 68.7 72.9 20 24 1995 19959 68.3 1995-99 1.90 24.0 4.8 2.97 70.0 74.4 16 20 2000 21953 63.3 2000-04 1.58 20.5 4.6 2.56 71.3 75.9 13 16 2005 23755 56.1 2005-09 1.33 18.1 4.7 2.21 72.3 76.9 12 14 2010 25392 49.1 2010-14 1.26 17.6 4.9 2.09 73.3 78.0 10 12 2015 27045 46.2 2014-19 1.23 17.4 5.1 2.08 74.3 79.1 8 10 2020 28761 46.5 2020-24 1.12 16.6 5.3 2.08 75.4 80.4 7 9 2025 30421 48.8 2025-49 0.72 14.0 6.8 2.07 77.7 83.1 4 6 2050 36414 57.2 2050-74 0.27 12.4 9.7 2.06 80.0 85.9 3 4 2075 38948 69.0 2075-99 0.07 12.0 11.3 2.06 81.2 87.5 2 4 2100 39670 72.2 2100-24 0.04 11.8 11.4 2.06 82.1 88.8 2 3 2q25 40097 73.5 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.4 89.2 2 3 2150 40320 74.2 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 85-89 80-84 55-59 50-54 45-49 40.44 35.39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5.9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR e0 Growth rate Counmtry Ragion Incoas group Coun~try Region Income grou Coistry Region Income grou~p 75 MALDIVES 1. Recent Trends loet recent ensA (OOO00 Mar. 5): 160 N"ion: Asia Iw per capita cU.S. dollars 1966): 407 Incom Group: Low Populatiow ad struture Unfit of m_ureai 190 5 1990 Total Population (aid-year) Thousands 155 183 217 Age structure 0-4 Thousans 32 41 5-14 Thousands 50 S 15-64 Thousands 98 115 65+ Thousands 4 5 Denity Pop. per sq. km. 517 610 723 Urbanization Percent urban 21 20 21 Schoolt-a population 6-11 Thousand 30 35 12-17 Thouswas 26 29 Wman of childbearing agO 15-49 Thousands 40 47 Vital rate wW policy Unit of measure 1975-0 19110.5 1985-90 Anmut growth rate Percent 3.1 3.3 3.4 Fertftity Total fortility rate (TFR) Births per women 7.1 6.5 Crude birth rate (CN) Sirths per 1000 pop. 45 44 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (to) Mloes Years 58.0 F mes t Years 61.0 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 Live births 77 Under S mortality isk (q5) 1000 q. 108 Crude death rate (CDI) Deaths per 1000 pop. 14 10 let migration Thouands 0 Govt. asesmnt of Population growth rate Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Fertility Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Contracsption Unit of __ Previou Lat_t Contraceptive preaLene percent of mrriad Year woman 15-49 using Contraceptive six Percent using Pill lud Fmlto steritIation alte sterilization Condm Other moden Traditialt 76 MALDIVES 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2035 DW. crauth all Tour Pq.AIt1ou ratio Period rate t CD TFr kim Famet In a1QOO 1990 217 88.6 1990-94 3.31 41.9 8.8 5.97 59.9 63.1 65 89 199f 256 93.1 1995-99 3.10 38.7 7.7 5.43 61.8 65.3 54 72 2000 299 94.1 2000-04 2.88 35.6 6.7 4.90 63.8 67.5 45 57 2005 346 66.4 2005-09 2.67 32.9 6.3 4.36 65.2 69.1 39 50 2010 39f 81.5 2010-14 2.46 30.3 5.7 3.83 66.6 70.7 34 43 2015 447 73.2 2014-19 2.21 27.3 5.2 3.29 68.1 72.4 28 35 2020 499 65.6 2020-24 1.98 24.5 4.7 2.88 69.7 74.1 23 28 2025 551 60.0 2025-49 1.37 18.2 4.7 2.19 73.3 78.2 12 i5 2050 776 46.3 2050-74 0.72 14.1 6.9 2.07 77.2 82.8 4 6 2075 930 58.0 2075-99 0.26 12.5 1.0 2.06 79.6 85.6 3 4 2100 992 68.6 2100-24 0.10 12.0 11.0 2.06 81.3 87.7 2 3 2125 1016 71.7 2125-49 0.04 11.8 11.4 2.06 82.0 88.6 2 3 21M0 1027 73.2 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70.74 e5-69 80-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR e0 Growth rate Cowmtry Region Income group Country Region Income group Coiuntry Region Incom group .§ Z _~~~~~~~~~~~7 MONGOLIA 1. Recent Trends Nst recant c A (000, Jun. 79): 1S95 Region: Asia 0 per capita (U.S. dollars, 1988): -- Incom Group; No date Palation d stcture Unit of m_sswr 1980 1915 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thouswas 1663 1909 2186 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 267 29 340 5S14 Thousands 449 496 553 15.64 Thousawds 894 1052 1219 65+ Thousands 53 62 74 Density Pop. per sq. km. I 1 1 Urbanization Percent urban 51 51 51 School-oa poputation 6-11 Thousands 273 303 340 12-17 Thousands 233 269 294 Womn of chil*.ering age 15-49 Thouswa 384 453 522 Vital ratm and policy Unit of measure 1975-60 1980-85 1985-90 AmnuaL growth rate Percent 2.8 2.8 2.7 Fertility Total fertility rate CTFR) Births per woman 5.5 5.3 5.0 Crude birth rate (CUR) Births per 1000 pop. 39 38 36 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (o) Kale* Years 55.0 57.5 60.0 Feales Years 57.5 60.0 62.5 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 Live births 88 78 68 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q5 93 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 11 10 9 Net migration Thouswas 0 0 Govt. assessmnt of Population growth rate Too Low Too low Satisfactory Fertility Satisfactory Satisfactory Too high Contriceptifn Unit of e Previs Latest Contraceptive prevalence percent of mrried Yer women 15-49 using Contraceptlv mix Percent using Pitt lud F nlt sterilzation alte sterftization Condom Other moern Traditiornl 78 MONGOLIA 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2020 O p.. UGroth b *o qs Toer Peputation ratio Period rat Ca CD4 TFt MaIm F_lt it X10OO 1990 2186 79.3 1990-94 2.66 34.6 7.9 4.49 62.3 64.7 58 77 1995 2497 77.7 1995-99 2.41 31.1 6.9 3.98 64.5 67.0 48 62 2000 2817 74.5 2000-04 2.13 27.3 6.1 3.47 66.6 69.2 39 49 2005 3134 68.7 2005-09 1.86 24.4 5.8 3.00 67.8 70.6 34 42 2010 3439 61.7 2010-14 1.61 21.7 5.6 2.59 69.0 72.1 28 35 2015 3728 55.5 2014-19 1.38 19.2 5.5 2.24 70.3 73.7 22 27 2020 3993 50.2 2020-24 1.27 18.2 5.5 2.12 71.7 75.4 ,6 20 2025 4255 47.2 2025-49 0.96 15.6 6.1 2.09 74.9 79.2 8 10 2050 5413 50.8 2050-74 0.44 13.0 8.7 2.07 78.4 83.4 4 5 2075 6044 66.1 2075-99 0.12 12.2 11.0 2.06 80.2 86.0 3 4 2100 6234 70.8 2100-24 0.07 11.9 11.2 2.06 81.6 88.0 2 3 2125 6349 72.2 2125-49 0.04 11.8 11.4 2.06 82.2 88.8 2 3 2150 6406 73.5 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 56-69 60-64 55-59 60-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eO Growth rate Co.utry Region Incom group Country Region Incom group Country Region .ncom group 79 MYANMAR 1. Recent Trends Moot rent ownAg (00S, Mar. 83): 35306 tegin; 4Jle wp per capita (U.S. dollar 19M): 24 Income Group: Low Ppulation and _ otnetur Unit . of ure 1900 190 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousnds 33821 37544 41609 Age structure 0-4 Thousrnds 4801 5297 5512 5-14 Thousads 8603 9435 9917 15-64 Thousande 19071 21391 24465 65+ thousands 1346 1422 1714 Denity Pop. per sq. km. *1 S7 63 Urbanization Percent urbon 24 24 25 School-oa population 6-11 Thousands 5237 5704 6013 12-17 Thousands 4550 5266 5635 Wnun of chil*ering age 15-49 Thojewnds 7973 9079 10384 Vital rato un policy Unit of mosure 1975-J IlD-a 19U490 Amust growth rate Percent 2.1 2.1 2.1 Fortility Total fortility rate (TFR) Births per woman 5.0 4.6 4.0 Crude birth rate (CIA) lirths per 1000 pop. 36 34 30 Mortality Life expectency at birth (to) Mates Years 53.4 5.8 58.3 Females Years 56.7 59.3 61.8 Infant mortality rate (INN) Per 1000 live births 90 s0 70 Under 5 mortaifty risk (q5) 1000 q5 105 101 97 Crude death rote (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 12 11 10 Net migration Thousands -10 -10 Govt * assesant of Population growth rate Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Fertility Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Contr a_ption Unit of * ur Previouc Loto t contraceptive provalenc percent of marriod 5 Year womn 15-44 using 1980 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pill lud F e lo steritlation ale sterilization Condo Other moern Traditional so NYANNAR 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2010 wt PepAastilm ott Peied rate C en TFU NLtm Feml In xmooo 1990 41609 70.1 1990-94 2.04 29.2 8.8 3.51 60.1 64.6 60 s0 1995 46075 67.1 1995-99 1.79 25.7 7.6 3.04 61.9 67.6 50 AS 2000 50377 63.2 2000-04 1.52 22.3 7.1 2.63 63.8 70.2 41 51 200a 54353 56.1 2005-09 1.25 19.3 6.8 2.26 65.2 71.6 36 45 2010 57663 51.1 2010-14 1.17 14.3 6.6 2.1S 6.6 73.1 30 38 2015 61339 46.2 2014-19 1.14 18.0 6.6 2.13 68.1 74.6 25 31 2020 64946 44.6 2020-24 1.07 17.2 6.5 2.11 69.7 76.2 20 25 2025 61523 45.6 2025-49 o.72 14.6 7.5 2.06 73.3 79.6 11 13 2050 61969 55.1 2050-74 0.29 12.9 10.0 2.07 77.3 G3.6 4 6 2075 6164 65.9 2075-99 0.12 12.3 11.1 2.06 79.6 66.2 3 4 2100 90933 70.2 2100-24 0.06 11.9 11.1 2.06 81.3 66.1 2 3 2125 9276 72.2 2125-49 0.04 11.8 11.4 2.06 62.0 66.6 2 3 2150 93652 n3.5 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-69 60-84 55.59 50-54 4e-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 16-19 10-14 5.9 M=W RRURRRR . . 0-4 10 o 4 0 2 4 6 8 10 I10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR e0 Growth rate . _ _nc group _ . _ _ ,. I _ Country Rlegon Incmo group Countr~y Region Incom group Country legion Incoo group~ 61 NEPAL 1. Recent Trends Meet recent cenw (000t , Jun. 81): 15023 Region: Asia P per capita (U.). dollars, 1968): 174 Income Group: Low Poulatlon d stntut UnIit of m_ure 196 1966 1990 Total Population (Nid-year) Thousands 14640 16682 19102 Ago structure 0-4 Thousands 2385 2844 3218 5-14 Thousands 3649 4207 4904 15-6 Thousands 8162 9129 10381 65. Thousands 443 502 600 Denity Pop. per sq. km. 107 122 140 Urbanization Percent urban 6 8 10 School-oge population 6-11 Thousands 2287 2585 3U54 12-17 Thuands 189 2150 2475 oe=n of chltdearing age 15-49 Thousnds 3561 3927 4415 vital rates NW policy Unit of measu 1975-30 1980-U5 1966-90 Amiut growth rate Percent 2.6 2.6 2.7 Fertility ToVal fortility rate (TFR) Births per won 6.5 6.3 5.9 Cru6o birth rate (CUR) Births per 1000 pop. 45 43 43 Mortality Life expectwicy at birth (c0) Males Years 46.5 49.0 51.5 F m les Years 45.0 47.5 50.3 Infant mortality rate (INN) Per 1000 live births 147 139 128 Under 5 wrtality risk (q5) 1000 q5 230 215 190 Crude dsath rate (CDR) Doaths per 1000 pop. 19 17 15 Not migration Thousands 0 0 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Too high Too high Too high Fertility Too high Too high Too high Contrweptien Unit of m u Previof. Latest Contraceptive prevalence percent of married 7 ti Year wom_n 15-49 using 1981 1986 Contraceptive six Percent using Pill I I hud 0 0 f lto sterltzation 2 7 Male sterillastion 3 6 Condom 0 1 Other modern 0 0 Traditionrl 0 0 82 NEPAL 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2030 OW. grth sO O Yow or p.latimt ratio Period rate O CD4 TFt tM F FmLs In x1000 1990 19102 84.0 1990-94 2.42 38.1 13.8 ;." 53.1 52.2 118 173 1995 21562 82.4 1995-99 2.24 34.8 12.4 4.84 54.9 54.3 106 154 2000 24119 77.5 2000-04 2.11 32.3 11.2 4.33 56.9 56.6 93 133 2005 26799 71.5 2005-09 1.95 29.8 10.3 3.82 58.6 58.5 83 117 2010 29539 67.0 2010-14 1.73 26.8 9.5 3.31 60.3 60.5 73 102 2015 32216 62.5 2014-19 1.56 24.3 8.8 2.94 62.0 62.6 63 86 2020 34824 56.1 2020-24 1.36 21.8 8.2 2.62 63.8 64.8 53 71 2025 37272 53.5 2025-49 1.00 17.6 7.7 2.20 68.3 70.4 31 39 2050 47810 47.3 2050-74 0.52 14.2 9.0 2.10 73.7 77.2 11 14 2075 54417 57.0 2075-99 0.24 12.9 10.5 2.08 77.4 81.8 6 8 2100 5774 66.0 2100-24 0.14 12.3 10.9 2.06 80.3 8S.8 3 4 2125 59761 69.4 2125-49 0.07 12.0 11.3 2.06 81.3 87.4 2 4 2150 6076 71.8 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 4b-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 lO 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR e0 Growth rate Country Region Incom group Country Region Income group Country Region Incom group 83 NEW CALEDONIA 2. Recent Trends Meet rent ow (000M, p. 33): 145 Egion: sf UP per capit (U.S. dellts, 191): .. Incin Groip: Nig _patiem mi" struct t Uhit of s 1 1 190 Total PWulation (mid-yes) Thuuande 1N 152 162 Ag structwu 0-4 Thouand .. s 5-14 Thads .. 36 36 15-64 Thounds 90 100 65 Tho nde .. 7 a D1eity op. per q. Io. 7 S 9 Urbanization Percent rban 69 76 e1 Schol-age population 6-11 Thou d .. 22 22 12-17 Thou d .. 21 22 Vomen of childesarln o9 15-49 Thomanc . 35 40 Vitatl re t *d poticy Unit of owre 1975- 1 -05 190S-9 Amuso growth rate Percent 0.9 1.9 1.3 Fertility Total fortility rate CTFI) lirths per wino 4.0 3.6 3.1 Crude birth rate (CCU) lirthc per 1000 pop. 29 27 24 Mortality Lift expectancy at birth (C0) MalS Years 64.0 64.6 65.7 Fotles Ybar 64.0 68.5 70.1 infant mortality rate CIN) Per 1000 live births 36 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 .. 44 Crude death rate (CDI) Doeth per 1000 pop. 7 6 7 Net migratlon Thousands 5 -3 Govt. aseasament of Poputotlon growth rate FortiLity Contr ctpion Unit of mesum PreviAu Latet Contraceptive provelence percent of mrrlod Year women 15-49 using Contraceptive six Porcent usine Pill lud Famleo sterilzation Male sterilization Cane Othor mooJrn Traditivoel NEW CALEDONIA 2. Projections - NRRl1 by 2000 Itp. Gram 6 h Tow P. *Aitimn ais P-ed ate - cS TFP kim F_mi In XaIm 1990 162 62.2 1990-94 1.15 21.3 6.6 2.65 66.9 72.9 29 35 1995 172 55.5 1995-99 1.07 19.2 6.3 2.25 68.2 75.3 24 26 2000 161 51.6 2000-04 1.06 18.3 6.1 2.11 69.6 77.3 19 23 2005 191 49.3 2005-09 1.10 17.3 6.2 2.10 70.7 76.3 16 20 2010 202 48.7 2010-14 1.03 16.5 6.5 2.09 71.6 79.3 14 17 2015 213 46,9 2014-19 0.91 15.7 6.6 2.09 72.9 30.4 11 13 2020 223 48.9 2020-24 0.60 14.8 6.9 2.06 74.1 61.5 S 10 2025 232 48.5 2025-49 0.56 13.5 6.0 2.07 76.7 63.9 4 6 2050 266 63.5 2050-74 0.17 12.4 10.7 2.06 79.4 66.4 3 4 2075 278 66.6 2075.99 0.0 12.0 11.2 2.06 80.9 67.6 2 4 2100 263 71.9 2100-24 0.05 11.8 11.3 2.06 81.9 u.9 2 3 2125 267 73.2 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.4 89.3 2 3 2150 29 74.1 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 756+ 70-74 65.69 60-64 55.59 50-54 45.49 WM= lB 40-44 t2222MM 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5.9 0.4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 I0 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR e0 Growth rate C an , I . .mir .eio Inom gop Cwly ego mgo ncgr..p NEW ZEALAND 1. Racent Trends Meet recent coumn (000. ApW. 6): 3307 Region: Developed Countris WP per capita (U.S. dollars, 195): 10003 Incom Group: Nigh P_ tatiun un a structure Un t of memsur 1950 196 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 3113 3290 3394 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 247 251 258 5-14 Thousands 584 550 503 15-64 Thousands 1971 2144 2256 65+ Thouswnds 310 344 376 Donsity Pop. per sq. km. 12 12 13 Urbanization Percent urban 83 84 U4 School-age popuLatian 6-11 Thousands 346 321 296 12- 17 Thousands 358 363 328 Aomen of chilcbering age 15-49 Thousands 763 840 889 Vitat retw nd poticy Unit of measure 1975-8O 1900-U5 19UC-90 Awmul growth rate Percent 0.2 1.1 0.6 Fortility Total fertility rate (YFR) Births per woman 2.2 2.0 1.9 Crude birth rate (C6R) Births per 1000 pop. 17 16 16 Mortality Life expectancy at birth ('n) Males Years 69.3 70.7 71.8 Females Years 75.7 76.9 77.9 infant mortality rate (INA) Per 1000 live births 14 12 11 Under 5 mortality risk (q) 1000 % 17 15 14 Crude death rate (COR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 8 8 8 Net migration Thousandr O -20 Govt. * assmant of Population growth rate Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory iertflity Satistactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Cantr captifn Unit of *osure Previous Latest Contraceptive prevalence percent of married 70 Year women over 15 using 1976 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pill 29 lud 4 Femile sterilsation 11 Male sterilization 9 Condom Other modern O Traditional 2 86 NEW ZEALAND 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2030 IW. GrowthSO 'O4 To Pf pUatimn ratio Perfiod rate CII Cm TFR Nlo Fmtes tR u1000 1990 3394 50.4 1990-94 0.67 15.4 8.1 1.92 72.9 78.9 10 12 1995 3509 50.3 1995-99 0.65 14.5 6.0 1.92 73.9 80.0 8 11 2000 3625 49.6 2000-04 0.59 13.8 7.9 1.94 75.0 81.1 7 9 2005 3734 49.2 2005 09 0.51 13.1 8.1 1.97 75.7 81.8 6 8 2010 3830 49.4 2010-14 0.46 12.8 8.2 1.99 76.5 82.5 6 7 2015 3919 52.2 2014-19 0.43 12.6 8.3 2.02 77.2 63.3 5 6 2020 4004 55.2 2020-24 0.38 12.5 8.1 2.04 78.0 84.1 4 6 2025 4081 59.2 2025-49 0.14 12.0 10.6 2.07 79.6 85.8 3 4 2050 4224 71.4 2050-74 0.00 11.9 i'.9 ?.07 81.0 87.6 2 4 2075 4225 72.3 2075-W 0.03 11.8 11.5 2.06 81.8 U.6 2 3 2100 420 73.5 2100-24 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 82.4 89.3 2 3 2125 4287 74.1 2125-49 0.01 11.6 11.5 2.06 62.6 89.6 2 3 2150 4303 74.6 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ e za 1 ~~~70-74 § E 65-69 a0-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 RRRERS BEE2gl 25-29 05 B 20-24 15.19 10-14 5-9 I 0-4j 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eO Growth rate .~~~~~ .. . - -|.... Country Region Incom groW Country Region Income grai Country Region Income group 87 OTHER MICRONESIA 1. Recent Trends Nest recent cnus: .. Pegion: Asi UW per cpita (U.S. dollsrs 193): Incom Group: o date PtIpAtion wnd * structur Unit of somure 1960 1965 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 8S 97 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 12 14 5-14 Thousnds 22 24 15-64 Thousands 47 55 65+ Thousands 3 3 Donsity Pop. per sq. km. Urbanization Percent urban Sehool-age population 6-11 Thousndsb 13 14 12-17 Thousands 12 13 Womsn of childsbaring ag 15-49 Thousands 19 23 Vital ratt *n policy UWit of mour 1975-10 196-aU 1985-90 Annusl growth rate Percent 2.7 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per won n 4*5 Crude birth rate (ClR) Births per 1000 pop. 33 Mortality Life expectancy at birth males Years 64.5 Fmles Years 69.5 Infant mortality rate (INN) Per 1000 live births 32 Jnder 5 mortality risk (q) 1000 q. 39 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 7 Net migration Thousands 0 Govt. ssessmant of Population growth rate Fertility Cantr cwption Unit of *ur Prsv iou Latest Contraceptive prevelece percent of mrried Year women 15-49 using Contracaptiv4 mix Percent using Pill lud F_mlo sterilzation aloe sterilization Condm Other modern Traditional as OTHER MICRONESIA 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2015 3tp. Gromm O h Taw Population ratio Pgriod rate C E TFR Natow F_lito 1 x1000 1990 97 75.8 1990-94 2.52 31.1 5.8 4.00 66.1 71.2 26 31 1995 110 74.0 195ff99 2.24 27.6 5.3 3.49 67.7 73.0 21 25 2000 122 69.8 2000-04 1.94 24.2 4.8 3.00 69.4 74.8 17 21 2005 135 63.4 2005-09 1.65 21.3 4.8 2.58 70.4 75.9 15 18 2010 147 5.3 2010-14 1.40 18.9 4.8 2.22 71.5 77.0 13 1S 2015 157 SO.5 2014-19 1.30 18.0 5.0 2.09 72.7 78.3 10 13 2020 168 47.5 2020-24 1.25 17.5 5.1 2.08 73.9 79.6 8 10 2025 179 46.6 2025-49 0.87 14.8 6.2 2.07 76.6 82.5 5 6 2050 222 53.5 2050-74 0.35 12.7 9.2 2.06 79.3 85.5 3 4 2075 242 68.1 2075-99 0.10 12.1 11.1 2.06 80.8 87.3 3 4 2100 248 71.7 2100-24 0.06 11.8 11.3 2.06 81.9 88.6 2 3 2125 252 73.0 2125-49 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 82.3 89.2 2 3 21S0 254 n.9 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65.69 60-64 55.59 50-54 45-49 40-44 t222S QESlS 35-39 2222g; BBB5.3 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5.9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 s 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eo Growth rate Country Region incom group Country tRofan Income group Country RegIon Income group 89 OTHER POLYNESIA 1. Recent Trends Nest recent canus: . Rgion: Asia GMP per capita (U.S. dotllrs, 1968): Incom Group: No dats Populatimn *n q structure thit of asawe U90 1985 1990 Total Population (mid-year) ThousAnds 80 85 Ai* structure 0-4 Thousands 13 11 S-14 Thousands 25 23 15-66 Thousands 40 47 65+ Thousands 3 3 Donsity Pop, per sq. km. Urbanization Percent urban school-ago population 6-11 Thousands 14 15 12-17 Thousands 13 14 Womn of childbesring age 15-49 Thousands 18 20 Vitat rato *nd poliy tiit of mesure 1975-80 19K0-U5 1985-90 Annual growth rate Percent 1.6 Fertility 'otal fertility rate (TFR) Births per women 4.0 Crude birth rate CCBR) Births per 1000 pop. 28 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (eo) aes, Years 66.9 Fewmles Years 72.7 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 Live births 26 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 `5 31 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. S Net migration Thousands -3 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Fertility Contraception Unit of aswure Previous Latest Contraceptive prevalence percent of married Year women 15-49 using sontraceptive mix Percent using Pitt lud F _le sterilzetfon Male sterilization Condom Other modern Traditionol 90 OTHER POLYNESIA 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2010 Dp. Gth 'IO o Yaor ftpultioan ratio Pwriod rate C8 CDR TFP Mai_ F_ml_ li x1000 1990 85 81.4 1990-94 1.87 28.1 4.9 3.50 68.4 74.3 21 25 1995 94 71.1 1995 -99 1.96 26.2 4.6 3.00 69.9 75.9 17 21 2000 103 63.4 2000-04 1.89 23.2 4.3 2.58 71.4 77.5 14 17 2005 114 60.9 2005-09 1.53 19.7 4.4 2.22 72.3 78.4 12 15 2010 123 54.1 2010-14 1.35 18.0 4.4 2.09 73.3 79.4 10 13 2015 131 49.0 2014-19 1.28 17.4 4.6 2.08 74.3 80.4 8 10 2020 140 45.2 2020-24 1.22 16.8 4.6 2.08 75.4 81.5 6 8 2025 149 43.9 2025-49 0.85 14.2 5.8 2.07 77.7 83.9 4 5 2050 184 59.7 2050-74 0.25 12.4 9.9 2.06 80.0 86.4 3 4 2075 196 69.5 2075-99 0.08 12.0 11.2 2.06 81.2 87.9 2 3 2100 200 72.3 2100-24 0.04 11.8 11.3 2.06 U.1 88.9 2 3 2125 202 73.4 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.4 89.3 2 3 2150 203 74.2 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ 70-74 65-69 80-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 22RRU21UgE 25-29 {§2ES2 %gm 1 ~20-24 2{ m §2g§§2zS Zm%gEUB 1~15-19 1E2%m 10-14 5.9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 1 0 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR e0 Growth rate Country Region Incor group Country Region Incor gr Country Region Incowa group 91 PAPUA NEW GUINEA 1. Recent Trends weet r eent census (000, Sep. s): 3011 legion: Asia UiP per capita (U.J. dotlorsc 1988): 810 Income Group: Lower-siddlt Population *n * structurs Unit of meaure 195 19S5 199 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 3070 3460 3904 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 481 550 613 5-14 Thousaro 837 889 991 15.64 Thousanrs 170' 1938 2184 65+ Thousands 48 84 116 Don ity Pop. per q.km. 8 9 Urbanization Percent urban 13 14 16 School-ag popuLation 6-11 Thousands 509 536 609 12-17 Thousands 427 497 524 Momn of childbearing ag 15-49 Thousnds 687 782 885 Vital r t_ *d policy Unit of mosur 1975-U 190-95 195-90 Aninum growth rate Percent 2.4 2.4 2.4 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per womn 5.9 5.6 5.3 Crude birth rate (CUR) Births per 1000 pop. 40 35 36 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (o) Moese Years 49.5 51.2 53.2 Fimoles Years 50.0 52.7 54.8 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 live births 85 74 63 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q5 121 103 86 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 15 13 12 Mot migration Thousands 0 0 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Too high Too high Too high fertility Too high Too high T,o high Contr weption ni t of *s Previou Lato t Contraceptive prevaLelne percent of m_rried 5 Yoer wmann 15-49 using 1960 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pilt lud F _ le steriltation aloe sterilifation Cor..m Othr modern Traditional 92 PAPUA NEW GUINEA 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2020 hp. crnIk 0 b s Tw Pepu4stin ratio Pealed rate Uc4 cm TFt Not7 Famle im x1o0 1990 3904 78.7 1990-94 2.28 34.1 11.2 4.74 54.5 56.3 54 71 1995 4376 W.1 199S-99 2.08 31.2 10.4 4.23 56.0 58.1 45 57 2000 4855 76.2 2000-04 1.89 28.5 9.6 3.72 57.7 60.1 37 45 2005 5337 70.8 2005-09 1.68 25.8 9.0 3.19 59.2 61.8 36 45 2010 5805 63.6 2010-14 1.48 23.2 8.4 2.74 60.8 63.6 36 45 2015 6251 57.7 2014-19 1.27 20.6 7.8 2.35 62.6 65.6 36 45 2020 6662 51.5 2020-24 1.21 19.5 7.4 2.21 64.4 67.7 36 44 2025 7079 47.3 2025-49 0.97 16.9 7.3 2.15 68.9 73.0 26 31 2050 9019 47.1 2050-74 0.46 13.8 9.2 2.09 74.2 79.1 9 11 2073 10124 60.7 2075-99 0.19 12.8 10.8 2.07 77.7 83.2 5 7 2100 10626 67.4 2100-24 0.13 12.2 10.9 2.06 80.5 86.5 3 4 2125 10977 70.0 2125-49 0.06 11.9 11.3 2.06 81.4 $7.8 2 3 2150 11150 72.1 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 - 70-74 65-89 60-84 55.59 50-54 45.49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 lo 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eO Growth rate .- . *s . ~~- I Country Ragian mInc group Country Region Inc gup Country Ragion Inc UP 93 PHILIPPINES 1. Recont Trends Most recent censu (O0Os, May. 80): 48098 Region: Asio amP per capita (U.S. dollersc 1988): 629 Inco. Group: Lower- middte Population w* _ structur Uniit of *moure 1960 1985 1990 Total Population (aid-year) Thousnds 49253 55819 62609 Ae structure 0-4 Thousands 7850 8701 8448 5-14 Thousand 12856 14247 16108 15.64 Thousands 26871 30974 35536 65S Thouswnd 1676 1897 2114 Donsity Pop. per sq. km. 165 187 210 Urbanization Percent urban 37 40 42 Schootl-e9 population 6-11 Thousands 7688 8744 9924 12-17 Thousands 6757 7579 8440 Woman of chitdbearing ag 15-49 Thousxnds 11593 13547 15394 Vital rete wnd policy Un!t of mesure 1975-80 1960-15 1965-90 Annucl growth rate Percont 2.7 2.5 2.3 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 5.0 4.7 3.9 Crude birth rate (CIR) Births per 1000 pop. 36 35 32 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (en) "ales Years 58.3 60.0 61.5 F ma te Years 61.5 63.7 65.3 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 Live births 54 51 45 Under 5 mortality risk (q%) 1000 q5 89 83 58 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 9 8 8 Net migratfon Thousands -250 -290 Govt. &ssesswmet of Population growth rate Too high Too high Too high Fertility Too high Too high Too high Cantr weption Unit of eeur Previwu Latest Contraceptive prevatence percent of married 33 44 Year women 15-44 using 1983 1986 Contraceptive six Percent using Pill 5 6 Ilud 3 2 F eale steritzation 9 10 aloe sterilization 1 1 Condom 2 1 Othwr modern 0 0 Traditional 9 23 94 PHILIPPINES 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2010 D. gth b b Y SW PuAatimn r tlo krlod rat, 4 CDR TFN Nota Fames Ia 51000 1990 62609 76.2 1990-94 1.90 26.8 6.9 3.31 63.0 66.9 38 47 1995 68865 69.0 1995-99 1.68 24.0 6.4 2.91 64.5 68.6 31 38 2000 74894 60.3 2000-04 1.51 21.7 6.0 2.55 66.2 70.4 26 31 2005 80753 53.5 2005-09 1.32 19.6 5.9 2.24 67.4 71.8 23 27 2010 86259 49.0 2010-14 1.23 18.6 6.0 2.13 68.6 73.2 19 24 2015 91727 46.4 2014-19 1.16 17.8 6.0 2.12 69.9 74.7 16 20 2020 97214 45.7 2020-24 1.06 16.8 6.1 2.10 71.3 76.3 13 16 2025 102507 46.3 2025-49 0.73 14.5 7.2 2.08 74.6 79.9 8 10 2050 123088 56.3 2050-74 0.28 12.7 10.0 2.07 78.3 83.9 4 5 2075 131981 66.2 2075-99 0.11 12.2 11.1 2.06 80.2 86.3 3 4 2100 135796 70.7 2100-24 0.07 11.9 11.2 2.06 1l.6 88.1 2 3 2125 138179 72.5 2125-49 0.03 11.8 11.4 2.06 82.1 88.9 2 3 2150 139340 73.6 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 I~ ~ ~ ~~~7 + 70-74 65-89 60.654 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25.29 20-24 15-19 Dooo>xXe EEEE2gg ~10-1 4 2z gl 2222>>>§§] UFZZZZUl 5-9 t Rgg mE 0-4 L 10 a 6 42 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income 4roup, 1985-90 TFR e0 Growth rate ..LEIUjR Country Region Income group Countlry Reglon Income grou.p Country liagion Iicome group 95 SINGAPORE 1. Recent Trends Noet recant cms (000. Jun. 80): 2414 Reion: Deeloped Countries SW pS capita (U.S. dollars 196): 9058 Income Group: Nigh Poplatlft ad _s structum Unlt of m_ se 196 lU ¶990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 2415 2558 2722 Age structure 0-4 Thouswad 194 209 241 5-14 Thousands 460 415 400 15-" Thouswds 166 1799 1927 65. Thousand 115 132 154 Dcomity Pop. per sq. km. 3959 4193 442 Urbanization Percent urban 100 100 100 School-a population 6-11 Thousands 275 243 237 12-17 Thouands 314 274 250 woman of childbearlng age 15-49 Thousand 695 755 792 Vital rat * md policy Unit ot meaure 197S-10 190-U6 19JS-90 Amu sl growth rate Percent 1.3 1.2 1.3 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFf) irthc per omon 1.0 1.7 1.9 Crude birth rate (CIA) lirths per 1000 pop. 17 17 19 Mortality Life expectoncy et birth (to) Nalas Years 65.0 69.5 70.5 Fm_es Years 73.2 74.7 76.4 Infant nortality rate (IMP) Per 1000 live births 12 11 7 rider S mortality risk (qS) 1000 q5 16 12 9 Crjde death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 5 5 5 Net migration Thousands -10 -10 Govt. asaesoment of Population growth rate Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfoctory Fertilfty Satisfactory Satisfactory Too low Cvtnr _ation Unit of *ou Praviom Lato t Contraceptivt prcealence percent of m_rried 71 74 Year woman 1S-44 using 1977 1963 Contrceptive mix soercont using Pill 17 12 l.i 3 0 F mle steritlation 21 22 Palo sterilization I I Conod 21 24 Other omdae 0 0 Traditional 0 0 96 SINGAPORE 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2030 Tw P.pqatim ratio Puwfod rate C C TIR F t F_lot i x1000 1990 22 41.3 1990-94 1.06 16.3 5.3 1.65 72.0 77.6 6 8 .995 2871 42.9 1995-99 0.63 14.1 5.5 1.65 73.2 79.1 5 7 2000 29Y2 42.8 2000-04 0.70 13.0 5.7 1.89 74.3 80.4 5 6 2005 3099 41.4 2005-09 0.61 12.6 6.3 1.92 75.1 61.1 4 6 2010 3196 40.9 2010-14 0.56 12.7 6.9 1.95 75.6 81.9 4 6 2015 3267 45.6 2014-19 0.50 12.6 7.5 1.99 76.7 62.7 4 5 2020 3370 53.0 2020-24 0.40 12.2 6.2 2.02 M.5 63.6 4 5 2025 3430 62.5 2025-49 0.03 11.7 11.5 2.06 79.3 85.5 3 4 2050 346' 7',1 2050-74 -0.01 11.6 12.0 2.06 60.9 87.4 3 4 207S 344': .7 2075-99 0.03 11.6 11.5 2.06 61.7 6A.4 2 3 2100 3*.1 73.2 2100-24 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 62.3 89.2 2 3 2125 3500 74.1 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 62.6 89.5 2 3 2150 3513 74.6 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-69 60-64 55.5, 50-54 45-49 40-4 35.39 30-34 25-29 20-24 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eO Growth rate Country A..'gln Incom groW Coma try R.gien Incom3 group Country Region I nc. grou~p ~~~~~~~~~~~~~97" SOLOMON ISLANDS 1. Recent Trends 40st recent cenus (000. Nov. 86): 285 Region: Asia UP per capita (U.S. dollars, 1968): S Incom Group: Lower-middlo Papulation wnd _ structuro Unit of mea .r 1980 1965 1990 Total Population (mid-yror) Thousacnf 230 274 324 Age structure 0-4 Thousands o0 57 5-14 Thousands 84 94 15-64 Thousands 133 163 65+ Thousonds 7 9 Domnity Pop. pr sq. km. 8 10 12 Urbonfzation Percent urban 9 10 11 SchooL-ag population 6-11 Thousands 52 58 12-17 Thousands 39 50 Uinn of ohiIb*.rfrg ag 15-49 Thousonds 57 69 Vital rates nd pDpticy Uint of *umuare 1975-80 1910-85 1965-90 Annust growth rate Percent 3.4 3.5 3.3 Fertility Total fertility rats (TFU) Births per wom n 7.4 7.0 6.6 Crude birth rate (CUI) lirths per 1000 pop. 45 47 41 Miortality Life expectancy at birth (eO) Males Years 59.9 62.6 Foemes Years Ir 61.4 64.1 Infant mortality rate (IMI) Per 1 w ive births 46 64 53 Under S mortality risk (qO) 1000 qo 80 CruJe death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 1 11 8 Net migration Thousnds 0 0 Govt. ssescment of Poi%uletion growth rate Too high Too high Fertility Too high Too high Contr ception Unit of maure Provious Latest Contraceptive prevalence percent of mrried 23 Vear women 1549 using 1979 Cent. ceptive six Percent using Pill lud Fmle sterilzation MAle sterilization Cendem Other modern Traditionl 96 SOLOMON ISLANDS 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2040 DGP. Smith go YVo Pqpulatfon ratio Pwied rate C Cm TFR INoe Feml in xlO00 1990 324 98.2 1990-94 3.54 42.3 6.9 6.13 64.3 66.4 44 63 1995 386 94.0 1995 -9 3.40 39.9 6.0 5.62 66.1 68.7 35 48 2000 458 93.2 2000-04 3.21 37.2 5.1 5.11 67.8 71.0 29 37 200S 537 90.7 2005-09 2.95 34.2 4.7 4.60 69.0 72.4 24 32 2010 623 84.0 .010-14 2.71 31.4 4.3 4.09 70.2 73.8 20 26 2015 713 76.9 2014-19 2.45 28.5 4.0 3.58 71.4 75.3 16 21 2020 806 69.9 2020-24 2.16 25.4 3.7 3.07 72.6 76.8 12 16 2025 896 63.6 2025-49 1.52 18.9 4.0 2.28 75.6 80.3 6 8 2050 1312 47.3 2050-74 0.81 14.2 6.2 2.07 78.8 84.1 4 5 2075 1608 57.5 2075-99 0.30 12.4 9.5 2.06 80.5 86.4 3 4 2100 1733 70.2 2100-24 0.06 11.9 11.1 2.06 61.8 U.2 2 3 2125 1769 72.5 2125-49 0.03 11.8 11.4 2.06 82.2 88.9 2 3 2150 1734 73.6 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70.74 85-69 80.84 55.59 50-54 EFM 45.49 40-44 35-39 30.34 ] §RR EmA ~~~~25-29 1U I R2422 g7Ul ~~~20-24 R5R E 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 d 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 a 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eo Growth rate Country "egion Income group Country Region Income group Country Region Income group 99 SRI LANKA 1. Recont Troends Nast rcet Cows (000., fr. 1): 1484 ltgion: Alsa IM per copita (U.S. dottan, 196): 423 Incom GroW: Lo P_Aathn tu "a stnetwe unit of _e l9 19 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousads 14738 15837 1956 Age structure 0-4 Thouands 1843 1962 1745 5-14 Thousands 3354 3436 3724 15.64 Thousands 91 96 10634 65+ Thousands 639 741 852 Demity Pop. per sq. km. 225 245 262 Urbanization Percent urban 22 21 21 schol- population 6-11 Thouands 2025 2091 2279 12-17 Thouands 199 1952 2029 Wm n uf childering as 15-49 Thouawds 3765 4106 4511 Vital rate and policy Unit of _en 1975-U 1910-1 19|-9 Anmal growth rate Percent 1.8 1.4 1.4 Fortility Total fhrtility rate (TFE) lirths per wmn 3.8 3.3 2.6 Crud* birth rate (CM) Irthr per 1000 pop. 28 27 22 Nortality Life expectancy at birth (y aleo Years 65.0 67.0 66.3 Finles Years 6.5 71.0 72.5 Infant ertatity rate (IN) Per 1000 live births 41 30 22 Under 5 mrtality risk (q IO) IW q 66 52 26 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 7 6 6 Net migration ThoussAds -125 -190 Govt. uumnt of Population growth rate Too high Too high Too high Fertility Too high Too high Too high Contration Unit of Previo Latet Contraceptive pralence percent of mrpiod sr 62 Ver women '5-49 using 1962 "96? Contraceptive mix Percent using Pill 3 4 lud 3 2 FPme steritIatien 1T 25 Nlet sterItization 4 5 Cede. 4 2 Other mdrn 0 3 Traditinal 19 21 100 SRI LANKA 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 1995 _p. 6ut O Ob q Tw PapmAnti.n ratft Pwled rate en tC TFN Iwim Fmline In x000 1990 16956 59.4 1990-94 1.11 19.0 S.8 2.23 69.5 7n.9 18 21 1995 17923 53.8 1995-99 1.01 17.7 5.7 2.10 70.8 75.3 14 17 2000 10354 47.6 2000-04 1.04 17.5 S.? 2.09 72.0 76.8 12 14 2005 19657 45.5 2005-09 1.00 17.1 5.9 2.09 73.0 77.8 10 13 2010 2076 46.0 2010-14 0.91 16.1 6.2 2.09 73.9 78.8 9 11 2015 21845 8.2 a014-19 0.80 14.9 6.4 2.0S 74.9 79.9 7 9 2020 22732 49.7 2020-24 0.71 14.1 6.8 2.08 75.9 81.0 6 a 2025 23549 51.7 2025-49 0.46 13.1 8.6 2.07 78.1 83.6 4 5 2050 26414 66.6 2050-74 0.13 12.2 10.9 2.06 80.2 86.2 3 4 2075 277 69.6 2075-99 0.07 11.9 11.2 2.06 81.3 87.7 2 3 2100 27m 72.4 2100-24 0.04 11.8 11.3 2.06 82.2 U.9 2 3 2125 2S071 73.5 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.5 89.3 2 3 2150 2U20 74.3 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 70-74 65.69 60-84 55-be 50-54 45.49 40-44 35.39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 S 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and In-ome Group, 1985-30 TFR e0 Growth rate Country legfon Income group Cewmtry Region IncOme grotp Country Region Income group 101 TAIWAN, CHINA 1. Recent Trends Moat recent conus (000.. Dec. 80): 17513 Region: ALtŁ P per capita (U.S. dollars5 1966): 5651 Incam Group: Upper-middle Pepulatinn nd structure Unit of maseure 1980 1965 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 17641 19135 20313 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 2093 1721 5-14 Thousands 3719 4014 15-64 Thousands 12384 13339 65+ Thousands 938 1241 Dns ity Pop. per sq. km. 496 540 574 Urbanisation Percent urban 66 67 68 School-sge population 6-11 Thousands 2257 2455 12-17 Thousands 2167 2198 Womon of childbarfng ag 15-49 Thousands 5006 5387 Vital ratm* wd policy Unit of issure 1975-80 1910-U1 1916-90 Amusl growth rate Percent 2.0 1.6 1.2 Fertility Totel fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 2.7 2.5 2.0 Crude birth rate (CBS) Births per 1000 pop. 24 22 16 Mortality life expectancy at birth (e0) Noles Years 69.2 71.5 72.0 F emsto Years 74.2 75.2 76.2 Infant mortality rate (INN) Per 1000 live births 18 17 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q5 21 Crude dsath rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 5 5 Net migration Thousands -100 -100 Govt. assossmnt of Population growth rate Fertility Cantr optifn Unit of *eour Previous Latest Contraceptive prevaelnce percent of mwrried 70 75 Year woman 22-39 using 1981 1986 Contreceptive mix Percent using Ptll 6 6 lud 25 24 F mle sterilzation 18 23 Pile sterilization 2 2 Condom 12 Other modern 0 Traditior l 19 0 102 TAIWAN, CHINA 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2030 De. Growth q5 Vow PspAdtion ratie Pwied rate Cm CDt TFR Naes Fmlt It X1000 1990 20313 52.3 1990-94 0.86 b.1 5.3 1.75 72.8 77.2 15 18 1995 21230 48.2 1995-9 0.77 14.3 5.6 1.7S 73.7 78.3 13 16 2000 22065 42.8 2000-04 0.76 14.4 6.1 1.bO 74.6 79.5 11 13 2005 22918 41.8 2005-09 0.71 14.2 6.6 1.86 75.3 80.3 9 12 2010 23743 42.' 2010-14 0.62 13.5 6.8 1.91 76.1 81.2 8 10 2015 24495 4.6 2014-19 0.52 12.7 7.2 1.Y5 76.9 82.0 6 a 2020 25142 49.3 2020-24 0.45 12.1 7.5 2.00 77.7 83.0 5 7 2C25 25708 54.5 2025-49 0.15 11.9 10.4 2.06 79.4 85.0 3 5 2050 26711 74.4 2050-74 -0.04 11.8 12.2 2.06 80.9 87.0 3 4 2075 26442 72.0 2075-99 0.03 11.8 11.5 2.06 81.7 88.2 2 3 2100 26635 73.1 2100-24 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 82.4 89.1 2 3 2125 268U4 73.7 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.6 89.5 2 3 2150 26965 74.4 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 865-68 60-84 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 4. Comparison of Coun.try with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eo Growth rate Co.untr-y legfon Incos group Country Region Incom group Country legion Income grou,p 103 THAILAND 1. Recont Trends Neet reoent Cens (000u . Apr. 80): 44825 Rgion: Asif WP per capIta (U.S. dolctrs, 1968): 1000 Income Group: Lower-middle Pamtatiuon *nd _ structure Unit of me* ure lU 1905 1990 Total Population (aid-year) Thousands 46700 S1683 55801 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 6341 6410 5860 5-14 Thousande 12364 12440 1M583 15-64 Thousands 26365 30951 35235 65+ Thousands 1649 1882 2119 Oinwity Pop. per sq. km. 91 101 109 UriMnizetion Percent urban 17 20 23 School-og population 6-11 Thousands 7386 7460 7583 12-17 Thousands 6812 7432 7410 Women of childbearing *9 15-49 Thousands 11407 13326 15050 Yital rates nd policy Unit of maoure 1975-80 1900-85 19J-90 Arnuol growth rate Percent 2.4 2.0 1.5 FertiLity Total fertility rate (TFR) Sirtha per womn 4.3 3.5 2.6 Crude birth rate (CM) Births per 1000 pop. 30 28 23 Mortal ity Life expectaony at birth (ea) Males Years 59.3 61.0 63.0 Females Years 63.2 6".8 67.1 Infant mortality rate (INR) Per 1000 live births 53 38 31 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 qS 75 61 37 Crude death rate (CDP) Deaths per 1000 pop. 8 8 7 Net migration Thousands -30 -30 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Too high Satisfactory Too high Fortility Too high Too high Too high Centr coptien unit of measur Previous Latot Contraceptive prevalenee percent of mnrriad 65 68 Tear women 15-44 using 1984 1987 Contrauaptive nix Percent using Pill 20 20 lhd 5 7 F _m o st ritzation 24 22 Msle esterilzatiin 4 6 Condm 2 1 Othor modern a 9 Traditional 0 2 104 THAILAND 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 1995 _". Crmids 0 Tw PapAstamn ratio Period rote COF Cm TR oinl F_mlo In xl00N 1990 55801 S8.4 1990-94 1.37 20.5 6.7 2.25 64.3 69.6 25 30 1995 59765 52.0 1995-99 1.31 19.5 6.3 2.13 65.8 72.0 20 24 2000 63802 47.2 2000-04 1.27 18.8 6.0 2.11 67.3 74.2 16 20 2005 67994 45.8 2005-09 1.16 17.8 6.1 2.10 68.5 75.3 14 18 2010 n726 4S.1 201U-14 1.02 16.6 6.3 2.10 69.7 76.S 13 15 2015 75851 44.7 2014-19 0.90 15.5 6.5 2.09 70.9 77.8 11 13 2020 79336 45.2 2020-24 0.80 14.8 6.7 2.08 72 2 79.1 9 11 2025 82584 46.7 2025-49 0.52 13.5 8.4 2.07 7S.3 82.2 6 7 2050 94065 63.8 2050-74 0.16 12.5 10.8 2.06 78.7 8S.3 3 5 2075 96035 68.0 2075-99 0.10 12.1 11.1 2.06 80.4 87.2 3 4 2100 100400 71.5 2100-24 0.06 11.8 11.2 2.06 8 .7 88.6 2 3 2125 101912 72.9 2125-49 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 82.2 89.1 2 3 2150 102649 73.9 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-69 60.64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 E 2232222FAW!l 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Councry with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eO Growth rate *~ . Coimtr'y leglon Income group Country Region Income grou.p CutyRa Incamgroup . l_ w _ .. _~~~~~~~io TONGA 1. Recent Trends Moat recent canoue (000, Nov. 86): 95 Region: Asia GNP per capits (U.S. dollars, 1910): 632 Income Group: Lower-middle Papulation and *o structur Unit of mesure 19800 195 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 94 95 99 Age structure 0-4 Thousand 12 14 5-14 Thousands 24 23 15-64 Thousands 54 58 65+ Thousands 4 4 Donsity Pop. per sq. km. 131 132 138 Urbanization Percent urban 20 21 School-g population 6-11 Thousands 15 13 12-17 Thousands 16 14 Woman of childbeoring age 15-49 Thousands 23 24 Vital rates nd policy Wnit of measure 1975-80 iNO-as 19UC-90 Annual growth rate Percent 0.9 0.2 0.8 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 5.1 4.7 4.2 Crude birth rate (CBR) Births per 1000 pop. 30 29 32 Mortality Life expectancy at birth Ce0) Moles Years 61.0 63.9 Females Years 64.0 67.6 Infant mortality rate (INN) Per 1000 live births 60 43 26 Under 5 mortality risk (%) 1000 q. 31 Crude death rate (CMR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 10 8 7 met migration Thousands -8 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Too high Too high Too high Fertility Too high Too high Too high Contraception Wnit of esmure P-evious Latest Contrace'tive prevalence percent of mnrried Year women 15-49 using Contrwceptiv, mix Percent using Pill lud F emale sterfltation Male sterilization Conrs Other modrn Traditional 106 TONGA 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2015 Dip. CGrwth 00 q5 Toer Pqpultion ratio Period rate Cm CDR TF4 M4les Fmtes iX x1000 1990 99 71.0 1990-94 1.27 30.5 6.1 3.78 66.0 70.5 18 22 1995 105 71.7 1995-99 1.19 26.6 5.5 3.31 67.9 73.1 14 17 2000 112 72.6 2000-04 1.08 22.7 4.9 2.89 69.8 75.5 11 14 2005 1Ia 65.2 2005-09 1.02 20.0 4.9 2.52 70.8 76.5 10 12 2010 124 55.7 2010-14 1.00 18.3 5.1 2.20 71.9 77.6 9 11 2015 130 49.1 2014-19 1.13 17.9 5.1 2.08 73.0 78.8 8 10 2020 138 45.7 2020-24 1.25 17.5 5.0 2.08 74.2 80.1 7 8 2025 147 45.2 2025-49 0.84 14.5 6.2 2.07 76.8 82.9 5 6 2050 181 53.2 2050-74 0.33 12.6 9.4 2.06 79.5 85.8 3 4 2075 197 68.3 2075-99 0.09 12.1 11.1 2.06 80.9 87.4 3 4 2100 201 71.8 2100-24 0.05 11.8 11.3 2.06 81.9 88.7 2 3 2125 204 73.2 2125-49 0.03 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.4 89.2 2 3 2150 205 74.0 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 36-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 .. . gwg1 ~~~ ~~0-4 1 >5 m 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eO Growth rate Country Region Imoee group Coun~try Region Income grou.p COMAntry Region Income groW 107 VANUATU 1. Recent Trends Mbct recent cucm (000. Jan. 79): III Regon: Asia UW per capita (U.S dollars, 19): 837 Income Grcu: Lower-niddlo Pultation and so trustue Unit of m_sure 190 196 1990 Total Poputation (mid-year) Thousands 117 136 156 Age structure 0-4 Thousad. 23 25 5S14 Thousads 38 44 15-64 Thouads. 70 ' 3 65. Thouands 4 4 Deity Pop. per sq. km. 10 11 13 Urbanization Percent urban 18 19 20 School-sp population 6-11 Thous 24 27 12-17 Thousands 20 23 Wm n of childbsaring agc 15-49 Thousands 30 35 Vital ratm mi policy Unit of m_ur J 75-190-U 1965-90 Amust growth rate Percent 4.0 3.0 2.7 Fertility Total fortility rats tTFR) Births per man 5. Crude birth rats (CUR) Births per 1000 pop. 38 Mortality Lifo expectancy at birth (to) altes Years 61.6 FmsIt Years 65.4 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 live births 75 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q. 100 Crude death rats (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. a Not migration Thoands - -2 zvt. *ssem . of Poputation growth rats Satisfactory Satisfactory Fortitity Satisfactory Satisfactory Contricwption unit of r Prwiou Latet Cant rcept i vs provalence percent of mrri d 13 Year womn 15-49 using 1979 Contraceptive mix Percent usinr Pitt .. .. lud F_lto strilustionf Mae steriliztion Conm Oth modern Traditional 108 VANUATU 2. Projections - NFRR-1 by 2030 1P. Growth o o 'Fw Pepaa&tIin #,,tio fttio rate cm cm TFR HoLes Fanmte IM XlOOO 1990 156 87.9 1990-94 3.04 38.5 7.0 5.32 63.1 68.2 63 81 1995 182 84.3 1995-90 2.88 35.4 6.0 4.81 64.8 70.8 52 66 2000 210 80.2 2000-04 2.69 32.3 5.2 4.30 66.6 73.1 43 54 2005 240 76.9 2005-09 2.43 29.1 4.8 3.79 67.8 74.4 36 45 2010 271 70.2 2010-14 2.16 26.1 4.5 3.28 69. 75.7 29 37 2015 302 64.4 2014-19 1.92 23.6 4.4 2.87 70. J 77.0 22 28 2020 332 58.8 2020-24 1.67 21.1 4.4 2.51 71.6 78.4 '5 19 2025 361 54.2 2025-49 1.17 16.6 5.1 2.10 74.8 81.5 7 8 2050 484 49.8 2050-74 0.59 13.4 7.6 2.07 78.4 84.9 4 5 2075 561 62.7 2075-99 0.18 12.3 10.4 2.06 W0.2 86.9 3 4 2100 587 70.3 2100-24 0.07 11.9 11.2 2.06 81.6 88.4 2 3 2125 596 72.4 2125-49 0.0 11.8 11.4 2.06 82.2 89.0 2 3 2150 603 73.7 3. Age structure !percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-69 60.64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 .t0-14 5-9 0-4 , -....,. .........~~........ 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 T"l. e0 Growth rate Country R.Ion incom grou. Country ReIon Incom group Count-y Region Income group 109 VIET NAM 1. Recent Trends Hat recent census (000. Apr. 89): 64412 Rlion: Asia WP per capita (U.S. dollers, 1968): .. Income roup: Low Pepulation m*d p structure tnit of *seure 190 ¶9 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 53700 59903 67389 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 8392 9013 9600 5-14 Thousands 14453 15323 16973 15-64 Thousands 28284 32890 377M3 65+ Thousands 2570 2677 3043 Density Pop. per sq. km. 165 184 207 Urbanization Percent urban 19 20 22 Schoolt-ae population 6-11 Thousands 8671 9361 10442 12-17 Thousnds 7921 8529 9051 Women of childbearing age 15-49 Thousands 12487 14406 16609 Vitat rates wd policy Unit of aseure 1975-80 1960-85 1905-90 Amnual growth rate Percent 2.2 2.2 2.4 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 5.6 4.8 4.1 Crude birth rate (CSR) Births per 1000 pop. 38 35 32 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (es) males Years 60.1 62.2 63.8 Feales Years 63.8 66.0 67.9 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 live births 62 53 46 Under 5 ortality risk (%) 1000 q5 128 105 59 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 9 8 8 Met migration Thousands -500 -250 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Too high Too high Too high Fertility Too high Too high Too high Contraception Unit of * ur Previao Latest Contraceptive prevalene percent of married 44 58 Year women 15-U using 1985 1986 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pitt 1 1 lud 32 46 Finle steritastion 1 2 Mate sterilization .. 0 Cndom 9 9 Other modern 0 0 Traditonat 0 0 110 VIET NAM 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2010 DW. roA h Tow Peputation ratio Pwied rate Ca CDR TFt Nlm Famete. JR x1000 1990 67389 78.4 1990-94 2.23 29.4 6.8 3.49 64.9 69.4 39 49 1995 75348 72.9 1995-99 1.93 25.6 6.2 3.01 66.3 71.0 32 39 2000 82967 66.2 2000-04 1.65 22.2 5.6 2.60 67.7 72.7 26 32 2005 90116 58.1 2005-09 1.41 19.4 5.4 2.24 68.8 73.9 23 27 2010 96677 50.1 2010-14 1.32 18.5 5.3 2.12 70.0 75.2 19 23 2015 103269 45.0 2014-19 1.28 18.0 5.2 2.10 71.2 76.6 15 18 2020 110095 43.9 2020-24 1.19 17.1 5.2 2.09 72.5 78.0 11 14 2025 116817 45.3 2025-49 0.75 14.4 6.7 2.08 75.5 81.3 6 8 2050 141810 56.3 2050-74 0.29 12.6 9.8 2.07 78.8 84.8 3 5 2075 152379 67.4 2075-99 0.10 12.1 11.1 2.06 80.5 86.9 3 4 2100 156185 71.3 2100-24 0.06 11.9 11.3 2.06 81.7 88.4 2 3 2125 158507 72.9 2125-49 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 82.2 89.0 2 3 2150 159675 73.8 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ 70-74 55-69 80-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 1QwmRe mwEZ 04 ...... 1 Mwy Zm ..-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eo Growth rate .ty Region Ic gocS .. . I Csuntry legion Income group Country Region Income group Country Region Ineonr group 111 WESTERN SAMOA 1 . Recent Trends Net roeent census (00t, llo. 61): 156 legIn: Asia IW per capita (U.S. dollarw 191): 6K Inca" Grspt Lowr-middle Psiletiu u ap stnatwe *P *t of es 19_0 Total Population (mid-year) Thousad 155 157 160 Age structure 0-4 Thousw .. 22 24 5-14 Thousads 43 40 15-" Tho nd .. 7 90 65+ Thound .. 5 6 Densty Pop. per sq. km. 55 55 57 Urbanization Percent urban 21 22 23 sthool- population 6-11 Thounds .. 25 24 12-1? Thounds .. 26 24 o mn of ehildtearing ag 15-49 Thousands .36 36 Vital rota md policy Unit of mows 1975-2 19-1 Sm-90 Anuatl growth rate Percent 0.7 0.3 0.4 Fert it Ity Total fertility rate YTFE) lirtha per w n 5.S 4.8 Crude birth rate (CUR) lirths per 1000 pop. 38 34 Nortality Life expectancy at birth (C0) Nales Years 61.0 62.0 63.0 Fem_les Years 64.3 66.2 6.0 Infant ortality rate (IU) Per 1000 live births S0 Under 5 ortality risk (q5) 1000 qs 65 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 7 Net migration Thouands -6 -18 Govt * as osmnt of Population growth rate Too high Too high Too high Fortility Too high Too high Too high Ce trmuot p n Unit of aos PrevisA Latest Contraceptive prevaleneo percent of m_rrild 19 Year wme n 15-49 uring 1962 Contracptive mix Percent using Pilt Iud Fmte steriltstion Kale st rilIiztIon Cand. Other modrn traditional 112 WUSTRN SAMOA 2. Projections - NRR=l by 2020 we _*** r. S.- q r 5 _z s vow PopetiotIm tio Period rate U cmn iFt fim Femle la XIm 10 160 78.1 1990-9 1.26 31.7 6.3 4.26 63.8 70.2 U2 53 l19 171 77.2 1995-99 1.52 26.2 6.3 3." ".6 72.5 3s 43 2000 184 75.2 2000.04 1.6 24.3 5.6 3.10 66.1 74.6 29 34 2005 200 6.1 2005-09 1.69 22.4 s.5 2.76 67.3 75.7 25 30 2010 217 57.s 2010-14 1.55 20.0 SJ 2.46 68.6 76.9 21 25 201S 235 S0.6 2016-19 1.36 18.8 S.1 2.19 69.9 75.1 17 20 2020 252 66.9 2020-24 i.27 17.6 5.0 2.09 71.2 79.6 13 16 22 26" ".6 2025-49 0.91 15.0 6.0 2.07 74.5 82.3 7 a 2050 337 53.0 2050-74 0.36 12.9 9.2 2.06 73.2 65.4 3 3 2075 369 .6 2075-99 0.12 12.2 .1.0 2.06 30.1 57.2 3 4 2100 30 71.0 2100-24 0.07 '1.9 11.2 2.06 61.6 86.6 2 3 2125 37 726 2125-49 0.03 11.7 11.6 2.06 u.1 39.1 2 3 215 390 n.7 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-69 s l ~~60-64 E8s 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 ------- 30-34 25-29 Ws22222220 _20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 6 10 10 b 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR e0 Grodth rate . . Coun,try Region I ncome grmp Co.atry Region Inome grmp * Caumtry Region Income group 113 . PRE Wofrkng Par Series Contact vb Athor DA for gsQape WPS581 How Successful is World Bank Patrick Conway January 1991 S. Fallon Lending for Structural Adjustment? 37947 WPS582 Adjustment Programs and Bank Vittorio Corbo January 1991 L. Oropesa Support: Rationale and Main Stanley Fischer 39075 Results WPS583 World Bank Lending for Education Marlaine E, Lockheed January 1991 C. Cristobal Research, 1982-89 Alastair G. Rodd 33640 WPS584 Whither Hungary and the European Alfred Tovias January 1991 G. Ilogon Communities? Sam Laird 33732 WPS585 Financial Innovation and Money Patricio Arrau January 1991 S. King-Watson Demand: Theory and Empirical Jose De Gregorio 31047 Implementation WPS586 The Challenging Akithmetic of Poverty Martin Ravallion February 1991 WDR Office in Bangladesh 31393 WPS587 Quantifying the Magnitude and Martin Ravallion February 1991 WDR Office Severity of Absolute Poverty in the Gaurav Datt 31393 Developing World in the Mid-1980s Dominique van de Walle Elaine Chan WPS588 Obstacles to Developing Small and Brian Levy February 1991 E. Madrona Medium-Sized Enterprises: An 37496 Empirical Assessment WPS589 To Prescribe or Not to Prescribe: Jeffrky S. Hammer February 1991 0. Nadora On the Regulation of Pharmaceutirals S6-065 in Developing Countries WPS590 The Domestic Financial Market and Premachandra Athukorala February 1991 M. Kienzle the Trade Liberalization Outcome; Sarath Rajapatirana 30733 The Evidence from Sri Lanka WPS591 Global Indicators of Nutritional Risk Rae Galloway February 1991 0. Nadora 31091 WPS592 Official Credits to Developing Asli Demirguc-Kunt February 1991 S. King-Watson Countries: Implicit Transfers to the Harry Huizinga 33730 Banks WPS593 Risk Management in Sub-Saharan Stijn Claessens February 1991 J. Carroll Africa Ying Oian 33715 WPS594 Size Rationalization and Trade Mark J. Roberts February 1991 S. Fallon Exposure in Developing Countries James R. Tybout 37947 PRE Wowkna-Pane Serie Contact 33b ~~~~~~A Zho for 2a2er WPS595 Hungary: Financia! Sector Reform Mario I. Blejer February 1991 Z. Sequis in a Socialist Economy Silvia B. Sagari 37665 WPS596 The Mexican Sugar Indus?ry: Brent Borrell February 1991 P. Kokila Problems and Prospects 33716 WFS597 Rent Sharing in the Multi-Fibre Refik Erzan February 1991 G. Ilogon Arrangement: Theory and Evidence Kala Krishna 33732 from U.S. Apparel Imports from Hong Kong WPS598 Africa Region Population Projections: Patience W. Stephens February 1991 0. Nadora 1990-91 Edition Eduard Bos 31091 My T. Vu Rodolfo A. Bulatao WPSS99 Asia Region Population Projections: Eduard Bos February 1991 0. Nadora 1990-91 Edition Patience W. Stephens 31091 My T. Vu Rodolfo A. Bulatao WPS600 Latin America and the Caribbean My T. Vu February 1991 0. Nadora Region Population Projections: Eduard Bos 31091 1990-91 Edition Patience W. Stephens Rodofo A. Bulatao WPS601 Europe, Middle East, and North Educard Bos February 1991 0. Nadora Africa Region Population Projections: Patience W. Stephens 31091 1990-91 Edition My T. Vu Rodolfo A. Bulatao