Repo Ni 7116&CG Antigua and Barbuda Updating Economic Note Jansary 2C 1998 Latin America arid the Caribbean Region FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the World Bank This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURR.NCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit East Caribbean Dollar Since its creation in 1965, the East Caribbean dollar was tied to sterling at the rate of £1.00 = EC$4.8. In July 1976 the link with sterling was broken and the East Caribbean dollar was aligned with the US dollar at the rate of US$1.00 = EC$2,70. Since July 1976 EC$1.00 = US$0.37 or US$1.00 = EC$2.70 FOR OFFICIL USE ONLY PREFACE AND ABSTRACT This report updates economic performance in Antigua and Barbuda in the last year. A more detailed analysis of development issues and porformance is contained in the report entitled 'Antigua and Barbuda Economic Memorandum' (Report No. 5297-CRG, January 3, 1985). The economy of Antigua and Barbuda advanced rapidly in recent years on the strength of a buoyant tourism sector and related construction. Annual growth exceeded 72 during 1983 to 1986. Prospects for continued strong tourism growth in the near term raise issues of intensification of labor shortages throughout the economy with concomitant upward pressure on wages that could adversely affect the country's international competitiveness. The Government might consider liberalizing its policies on immigrant labor. Sectoral issues relate to the adequacy of airline seats commensurate with the growth in tourist accommodation, the ability of manufacturing firms to penetrate extra-regional markets, and the need to develop commercial scale operations in agriculture. Fiscal performance, which improved in 1985 and 1986, deteriorated in 1981 primarily because of a 20% pay increase given to government employees. Debt management continues to be problematic. Arrears on external debt service increased by US$8 million in 1987, bringing total arrears outstanding to 16% of GDP. The rapid accumulation of commercial debt in the last two years to finance major public sector projects will raise the debt service burden in the short term t unmanageable proportions, assuming no rescheduling. To bring the external debt uituation under control and strengthen the public finances, the authorities would have to conclude successfully the debt rescheduling discussions begun in 1987; adopt an active program of divestment of government hotel assets; strictly control government expenditures; appropriately increase tariffs of the public utilities; and refrain from contracting new debt on commercial terms until the debt servicing capacity has consi_erably improved. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance I Ie'. - " I rg -tr 4 withniut World Bank authorization. ANTIGGA AND IAi A Bank economic sission visited Antigua and Barbuda in September 1987. The mission consisted of Dawn Elvis (mission leader), Gingor Roich (research assistant) and Vinetta Robinson (CDI). This gconoamic Noto upateas information on recent oconomic developments, highlights selected development issues and outlines the 1988-90 public sector investment progras as vell as the Goveroment's financing requirements. The statistical tables are based largely on the work of the Int-rnational Monetary Fund. The contents of this note were discuaxed with the authorities in Dcember 1987. ANTIOU AND AInUDA Tabl, of Contents If OVERVIEW .........I................................... 1 II. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 1 III. SECTORAL DEVELOPMENT ISSUES ...................... . * ........ . 3 IV. PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM ................. se.**e 5 V. MEDIUM-TERM PROSPECTS AND EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRDMENTS 6 ANNEX Is PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM..................... 8 ANNEX II: STATISTICAL APPENDIX... 15 MAP (IBRD 13506) ANTIGUA AWtD BARBUDA 1. OVERVIEW 1. Over the last decade, Antigua and Barbuda has significantly increased its standing as a premier tourist destination in the Caribbean, catering largely to an up-scale tourist market. This development has brought increasing prosperity, and the Government's development strategy emphasizes upgrading and expanding the physical and social infrastructure to support tourism and further exploit that sector's potential. The success of this strategy undoubtedly depends en economic performance in Antigua's main tourist markets, particularly North America. However, sound domestic policies are required to complement the opportunities offered by a favorable external environment. The Government has accumulated considerable arrears on external debt, and a sharp increase in 1986 and 1987 in public sector investments with commercial financing has compounded the debt servicing problem. In this regard, the challenge is to follow a prudent debt management policy, including a halt to the accumulation of arrears. The Government must also address in a timely manner the emerging structural problems associated with the rapid growth of tourism: namely the generalized labor shortage and its implications for rising domestic costs. 2. Antigua's currency is pegged to the United States dollar at EC$2.7 to US$1.0 since 1976. As a member of the common Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, Antigua's scope for independent monetary and exchange rate policy, as well as foreign reserve management, is extremely limited. Because the country's foreign trade relations are heavily weighted towards the US market, the real effective exchange rate in mid-1987 remained at about the 1980 level. II. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 3. Antigua's economy advanced at an annual average rate of 7.9% in real terms (GDP at factor cost) during 1983 to 1985, boosted by the impact on tourism of steady growth in the world economy. Public and private sector projects to expand capacity in response to the buoyancy in tourism stimulated double digit annual growth in the construction and related mining and quarrying sectors. The public sector launched major investments in water supply, electricity, and airport and road rehabilitation in addition to a large hotel complex; and the private sector has been active in the construction or expansion of smaller hotels. Growth continued strong in 1986. Performance in these sectors, together with an upturn in agriculture following the 1984 drought, compensated for a slowdown in the Government and other service sectors, and underpinned a further 8% increase in real GDP. The economic indicators point to continued strong performance in 1987 with output growth estimated at about 7%. 4. The buoyant. economic conditions have given rise to labor market pressures. The cons,ruction sector is operating at full capacity and the attractiveness of earnings in tourism exerts a strong pull on the labor force, creating labor scarcities in most other sectors. Semi-skilled as well as non-skilled categories are affected. Unofficial estimates place the current unemployment rate at 102, low by comparison with other Caribbean countries. Although Antigua has permitted some immigrant labor from neighboring countries, there is no defined policy to ensure an adequate labor supply. Selected data on lahor cost movements in private industry and government salary increases averaging 202 in 1987 denote a strong upward trend in wage costs. Increases in the consumer price index, meanwhile, moderated in 1986 to 0.5%. 5. The performance of the country's balance of payments is determined largely by the strength of tourism, the chief source of foreign exchange earnings, and by developments in project-related imports. Thus, the current account balance narrowed considerably in 1983 and 1984 as tourism earnings almost doubled in those two years, and as closure of the oil refinery led to a sharp decline in oil imports. The situation was reversed in 1986 and 1987, chiefly on account of import requirements for major investment projects in infrastructure and hctel development. In 1986, the current account deficit rose sharply to U`. 37 million (60Z of GDP). Though it is estimated to narrow in 1987, it would still. be substantial at US$84 million (32% of GDP). These large increases in the deficit were financed by project-related capital inflows on public and private accounts. Domestic merchandise exports, typically 6% of all export receipts, have comprised chiefly manufactured goods such as garments and electronic components destined for the US market, and paints sold on the OECS market. A new agricultural enterprise exports fresh fruit to the United States. The Public Finances 6. Public sector finances improved in 1985 and 1986 following enhanced revenue collections and stricter control of recurrent expenditures. This posture was relaxed, however, in 1987. The new civil servant wage contract agreed in 1987 involves considerable additional payouts that are not likely to be matched by increased revenues. And the growth in public sector external debt and arrears continues to be problcmatic. 7. The revenue measures introduced in late 1985 and early 1986 contributed to a 332 increase in revenues in 1986. This compares with an 11% increase in 1985. The result was an EC$11 million surplus in 1986, the first surplus on an accrual basis since the beginning of the decade. Further measures were called for to stem the accrual of arrears, and the Goverament in 1987 raised consumption taxes, primarily on imported meats. This, however was a modest effort and recurrent revenues are estimated to have increased by only 8% in 1987. Meanwhile, recurrent expenditures are estimated to have risen in 1987 by some 20%. The 20% civil service pay raise is the major source of the spending increase, though expenditures on other goods and services also are projected to go up significantly. The budgetary balance would likely revert to a deficit position and, despite some effort to keep current on payment obligations, a further buildup of arrears of about EC$11 million is estimated in 1987. The public enterprises, by contrast, have registered sizable increases annually in their operating surplus, contributing with the rest of the general Government to consolidated public sector surpluses averaging 5% of GDP in 1985 and 1986. A sharp downturn in their performance is expected in 1987, associated with the expanding operations of the public utilities. External Debt 8. The deterioration in the public sector's accounts in 1987 is cause for concern as it exacerbates an already serious public debt problem. Unable to meet all its payment obligations, the Government accumulated further arrears, increasing the arrears on external debt service by US$8 million during the year. At the end of 1987, the total public and publicly guaranteed external debt outstanding amounted to US$245 million, equivalent to 95Z of GDP and 111Z of exports of goods and services. Of this, 172 represented arrears on principal and interest. Aside from arrears, about 65Z of the debt was contracted over the last two years in respect of a cogeneration thermal electricity project/desalination plant, a 350-room hotel/condominium complex at Deep Bay, resurfacing of the international airport and a major telecommunications improvement project. While the current and projected debt service in relation to exports of goods and services is not unduly onerous (12Z in 1987), in relation to public sector revenues it is projected to escalate sharply from 12% in 1986 to 60X in 1988 before declining to about 31Z by 1992. These ratios assume no rescheduling. The Government has engaged the services of the merchant bankers Morgan, Grenfell and Company to help in rescheduling the existing arrears. This represents an important first step in normalizing Antigua and Barbuda's debt servicing. However, to avoid a further accumulation of arrears, it is urgent that the Government adopt measures to strengthen the public sector accounts. Ir addition, caution is required in contracting new debt on commercial terms if the existing difficult situation is not to become totally unmanageable. III. SECTORAL DEVELOPMENT ISSUES 9. Tourism. This sector is the backbone of Antigua's economy accounting directly for 17X of real GDP in 1986. Its recent strong growth is responsible for the economy's robust performance, and the current low unemployment rates. Stopover air arrivals increased at about 14.5% annually between 1982 and 1986. With accommodation capacity essentially unchanged during this period, room occupancy rates increased to 75% overall, reaching 90Z in the high season, just about full capacity, in some of the larger hotels. Several new hotel and condominium projects, large and small, are underway or planned that are expected to increase accommodation capacity by some 2,000 rooms by 1991, doubling the present capacity. About 400 of these came on stream in 1988, including the 350- room Deep Bay hotel mentioned earlier. This zapid expansion of the sector has implications for infrastructural requirements, both social and economic, and some of the large public sector projects in transportation and public utilities in the last two years have been designed to support the sector's expansion. It also has implications for the overall coordination and management of the sector's development. The expansion in accommodations would have to be accompanied by matching increases in airline seats to Antigua and Barbuda, so as to avoid a fall in occupancy rates that could threaten profitability in some establishments. This calls for stepped-up promotional efforts by the relevant entities such as the - 4 - Ministry of Tourism and the Hotel Association. British Airways is expected to increase its service to Antigua, and the Government has approached Lufthansa Airlines for service from Frankfurt. Another issue is to ensure adequate supplies of trained worxars when needed to man the new hotels. This issue has primacy in view of the general labor scarcity in Antigua and Barbuda, and the particular shortage of skilled labor. It calls for coordination between the hotel industry and the hotel training school. 10. In part the external debt issue is linked to the Government's direct involvement in the tourism sector. The Government has made large direct investments in hotel projects such as the new Deep Bay Hotel mentioned above and the Halcyon Cove Hotel, financed by commercial loans. The Government believes it should play a catalytic role in providing increased tourism facilities in addition to its role of regulation and promotion of the tourism sector. However, it acknowledges that divestment of some of these fixed assets would improve the public finances, and is currently engaged in negotiations to sell the Halcyon Cove Hotel. One hundred units of the Deep Bay complex are al'o for sale as condominiums or villas. 11. Agriculture. Agricultural output, which contracted annually during 1981-84, began to recover in 1985 and grew by 7.4Z in 1986. All subsectors, including fisheries, shared in this improvement. Nevertheless, the 1986 output was still below the 1980-83 levels in real terms, and the sector now contributes only 4Z of real GDP. The Government would like to see a revitalization of the sector and the draft White Paper on the next 5- year development plan outlines a strategy of forging stronger linkages with the dominant tourism sector through exploiting the fisheries resources, developing the livestock potential and expanding the crops subsector on the basis of irrigation. While there is scope for growth in the current fishing operations in nearby waters, the industry has the potential for considerable expansion through deep sea f4shing. This is to be pursued under the aegis of a CIDA-financed regional fisheries project that would provide for the construction of fishing facilities, the acquisition of suitable equipment, training of fishermen and marketing improvements. To foster livestock development, the Government in 1987 applied protective taxes to imported meats. This measure would have to be supplemented with strategies to improve the quality of meats to suit the tourist market, including improved husbandry and slaughtering practices. A time period should be established for graduating the industry from protection to guard against fostering a highly inefficient industry. The issues affecting fuller development of the crop potential include, in addition to the availability of water, severe labor constraints. Expansion of cotton production, for example, for the assured Japanese market is constrained by labor availability. The Government considers that expansion of vegetable production would have to look towards commercial scale operations with efficient production techniques to overcome the labor problem. 12. Manufacturing. Manufacturing activity contributes more to GDP than agriculture in Antigua and Barbuda, though still only 6Z of real GDP. For the size of the country the sector is relatively diversified, comprising production of garments, paints, furniture, household appliances, paper products and electronic components, in addition to the manufacture of beverages such as rum and soft drinks. Much of the light manufacturing is - 5 - directed at the regional market, and the sector's growth slowed in 1985 after Trinidad and Tobago tightened access to i.s market for balance of payments reasons. As a consequence, the search for extra-regional outlets is intensifying. One establishment has begun to shift its product line from mattresses and bedding for CARICOH to hand-carved bedroom furniture with a view to tapping Into a specialised niche in the US market. The sector continues to attract new investors. A new garment factory and a detergent factory were established in 1987. construction has begun on a new assembly plant for automotive components which is expected to begin operation in 1988, and two other manufacturers have received approval to produce plastic containers and assemble floor polishing equipment. Antigua is a participant with four other OECS members in the Eastern Caribbean Industrial Promotion Service (ECIPS), newly established in Washington DC with USAID funding. The agency is a followup of the Project Development Assistance Program (PDAP) that provided technical assistance in promotion in the individual islands over the last five years. It is headed by an OECS national and will jointly promote the participating OECS countries to prospective foreign investors. Labor availability, which already affects expansion of existing enterprises, could become a constraint on future growth of the sector. IV. PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTHENT PROGRAM 13. The development strategy underlying Antigua and Barbuda's public sector investment is the provision of much needed economic and social infrastructure to sustain and increase the buoyancy within the tourism sector, thereby maintaining high economic growth. Major investments were planned for 1986 and 1987, the primary ones being the Deep Bay Hotel, the desalinationlpower plant, the resurfacing of the airport runway and the expansion of the telephone system. An additional major undertaking begun in 1986 is the multi-faceted St. John's Development Project, estimated to cost EC$64 million. This project, located in the downtown area of the capital city, contemplates three kinds of activities, namely, the construction of a duty-free shopping complex and 25 condominiums; the dredging of the harbor and construction of a pier to accommodate two cruise ships simultaneously and relieve cargo facilities at the Port Authority Complex; and the establishment of a supper club/casino complex. While the shops would be leased or rented, it is planned that the condominiums would be sold. An eventual urban development component is a further element of the project aimed at rehabilitating the capital city. The project illustrates the Government's strategy for enhancing the tourism product. Unfortunately, the entire project, as in the case of many others, is being appraised for its economic feasibility only subsequent to commencement of construction. The other large investments mentioned above have either been completed (airport runway) or are nearing completion with the expectation that they would be commissioned by early 1988. 14. Because of the above-mentioned large investments, during 1986 to 1987 public sector capital outlays increased substantially as a proportion of GDP (361 of GDP compared to 71 in the preceding three-year period). With their completion in 1988, capital expenditure will revert precipitously to the lower rates. The Government intends to formulate a Public Sector Investment Program (PSIP) in the context of a proposed five- -6- year development plan for the sconomy for 1988 to 1992. As of now, the list of identified projects for the next three years, 1988 to 1990, envisages expenditures of EC$176 million, averaging 72 of GDP per year. The focus of the present set of projects La on the directly productive sectors, which represent 772 of the total. Economac Infrastructure accounts for 142 and social and administrative infrastructure 92. However, the program could quite possibly be expanded and the focus changed when the development plan is completed. 15. Since early in 1987, measures have been taken to strengthen the planning function of the Ministry of Economic Development. The Planning Unit has been given clearer terms of reference which include a new mandate to conduct a thorough study of the tourism sector and draft the five-year development plan for the economy. During the year, the Unit also received technical assistance from the Commonwealth Fund for Technical Cooperation and from the USAID to assist in its work program. Measures are also being developed to increase consultations among the various ministries and departments, particularly between the Ministries of Finance and Economic Development with a view to improving coordination. The new procedures would have to address the current diffusion affecting the formulation of a viable PSIP, with the attendant problem that projects launched do not sufficiently reflect economic decision-making. The consequences are particularly evident in the current financial difficulties, notably with regard to debt servicing. V. MEDIUM-TERM PROSPECTS AND EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIREMENTS 16. The investments currently taking place in tourism and related infrastructure augur well for a strong industry over the medium term provided that the economic condition of Antigua and Barbuda's main tourist markets remains healthy. On this assumption, GDP growth is projected at 72 annually in i987 and 1988, and to stabilize at around 52 over the years 1989 to 1991. The economy would be further strengthened if the proposals envisaged for agriculture and manufacturing under the next 5-year development plan are soundly designed and well implemented. The balance of payments current account d-ficit is projected to narrow from 322 of GDP in 1987 to 92 by 1992 on the strength of a projected 122 annual growth in tourism earnings and a decline in investment-related imports following completion of proposed private sector investments in tourism. However, the developments in tourism would need to be supplemented by a liberal policy of labor importation to avoid an intensification of generalized and critical labor shortages. Such a development could lead to excessive wage and price incres 'es, in turn adversely affecting the competitiveness of the tourist industry. If this were to happen, Antigua and Barbuda would have to address the issue of export competitiveness. 17. The Government would also have to take measures to bring the external debt situation under control. These include successfully concluding the debt rescheduling discussions begun in 1987; selling off government-owned hotel assets as proposed so as to improve the Government's liquid resources; stringently controlling government expenditures, and seeking new revenue sources so as to keep current in debt service obligations; appropriately increasing the tariffs of the public utilities; - 7 - and refraining from contracting additional external debt on comercial terms until the debt-servicing capacity has considerably improved. These measures are necessary to improve Antigua and Barbuda's creditworthiness for conventionai lending. 18. Total financing requiremnts hiring 1988-90 are in large part determined by the external debt obligations. The requirement for public sector investment is estimated to be US$65 aillion (71 of GDP). Scheduled amortisation requirements swunt to US$76 million for the three-year period. To these amounts must be added the outstanding arrears at the end of 1987 o' US$41 million, making a total of US$182 million. Public sector savings and capital revenue primarily from sale of the Deep Bay condominiums can be expected to provide approximately US$46 million (4.72 of GDP) provided that appropriate measures as outlined above are adopted to strengthen the public finances. External commitments for ongoing projects would provide another US$26 million. A financing gap for the three years of US$110 million will remain, of which US$19 million represents financing for new projects for which the Government is seeking donor assistance. US$91 million, or 832 of the gap, arises from the *x;ernal debt obligations and is a measure of the extent of rescheduling needed. Public Sector Financing R.ouiremnts. 196-9U ECS mii?lion Total 1988 1969 1996 (EC$ m) (USS m) Financing Reauir.m.nts 494 162 Public Sector Investment 19o 41 S2 176 as Scheduled Amortization 92 57 57 206 76 Arrears (as of 1987) - - - 112 41 Sources 193 72 Public Sector Savings 24 31 41 96 so Capital Revenue 26 1 1 27 is Banking System (net) - - - - - Identified External 19 26 25 70 UC Financing Gop Sol 11I Source: Annex I. ANNEX I Public Sector Investmnt Progrm ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA: WAJOR ONGOING PROJECTS AND SOURCES OF FINANCING (EC) '000) External Financing Local FiRanciRg Toros and Conditions Total lterest Amort. Grace Costs Amount Source Amount I Rate Period Period Agriculture Land Development 1734 -- -- 1734 100 -- Livestock Development 4141 4141 EOF -- -- Grant ASIC Diversification Programme 1817 -- -- -- 100 -- Industry Factory Shells 6470 -- -- 6470 100 Factory Shell - Barbuda 50C -- -- 500 100 Tourisa Deep Bay Hotel Project 197867 189000 Bank Synd. 886? 5 LIBOR+2.SZ A yrs. 5 yrs. Expansion of Halcyon Cove Hotel 9909 -- -- 9909 100 St.John's Redevelopment - Shopping Coa 27648 27648 -- -- LIBOR+1.2Z6 yrs. 3 yrs. St.John's Redevelopment - Pier 35249 -- -- 35249 100 St John's Redevelopment-Enter. Coampl. 31766 27000 -- 4766 15 -- -- -- English Harbour Park Project 8400 8400 CIDA -- -- Grant Transport Funding Scheme - Public Marks (Equip) 12423 -- 12423 100 Airport Rehab. & Runway Resurfacing 29970 29970 Coem. Bank -- -- 10.25/11.27 yrs. 2 yrs. Road Rehabilitation 6100 5673 UK 427 7 Grant Village Roads Reconstruction & Drains 2853 -- -- 2853 100 Airport Terminal - Roads & Parking 708 -- -- 708 100 Road Reconstruction & Improvement 30 -- -- 30 100 Road Reconstruction II 10000 10000 EDF -- -- Grant Utility Services Telephone Expansion 35320 35320 Cable&Vire -- -- LI50R+lS 13 yrs. 2 yrs. Desalination Plant 127980 80190 Japan -- -- 8S 9 yrs. 0.5 yrs. 47790 Suppcred -- -- 141 -- 2 yrs. Mater Supply Expan. - Fort James etc. 1487 1487 UK -- -- Grant Cassada Garden Drainage 1200 -- 1200 100 Barbuda Electricity Generators 1030 1030 UK -- -- Grant Electricity Distribution 20126 20126 Supp. Credit -- -- 9.65Z UnknownUnknown ANTICQA AND SAMUDA: JOR ONGOING PROJECTS AND SOURCES OF FINANCING (ECS '000) (Cont.) Externil Financing Local Financing Terms ad Conditions Total Interest Alort. Grace Costs Aount Source Amount I Rate Period Period Education Seaview Fare Govt School (INTF) 2002 280' USAID/CIS -- -- Grant RIabilitatiom of sendalls School 1657 1657 UK -- -- 6rant School uses (12) 1140 -- 1140 100 Clare Hall School - Phase I 422 422 UK -- -- Grant Health Holberton Hospital 2265 -- 2265 100 Nental Hospital 465 -- 465 100 Family Planning Project 253 253 USAID -- -- Grant Niscellaneous Construction of Office Complex 6000 -- 6000 100 Fire and Rescue Equipment 3650 -- 3650 100 Police Stations & Equipment 694 590 UK 104 16 Grant Development of Sarbuda 3885 -- 3885 100 Construction of Police Stations 1586 -- 1586 100 -11- ANTJCII AND BRUdNDA: WAJOI NEM P ECTS ND SOUtCES OF FINANCING (EC '006) Exterual Financing Local Finaeing Terms ad Condities total Interest Aurt. Grace Costs Aornt Source Auut Z Nate Period Puried Agriculture Fisheries Dvelopu mt 4020 4020 CIa -- -- Crat Lirestock Development 11 4381 4381 E Grant T,'risa Deep Bay Hotel Project - Phase II 33750 33750 UnMkogm -- -- Unkuowu U.knmkn Uino Education 6endals - Vocation & Science Ming 450 450 UK -- -- rant Antigua Girls School - Tech. Voc. 800 800 UK -- -- Grant Rehabilitation Pares School - Phase I 100 100 CIDA(NAF) -- -- Grant Hiscellaneous Housing - ABDS 13200 9804 Comercial 439% 33.3 n.a. Unkon UnIknou -12- tp I of 3 *NTJSA * ARDA: PUBLIC SECTOR CWITAL EXPNITUE, 1907-90 (EC$'000) 1987 1988 1989 1990 ONGOING ------------------- ------------------- ------------------- PROJECTS Total Ext Local Total Ext Local Total Ext Local Total Ext Local ONOING 397607 3U873 5614 487) 19000 45877 33893 2565? 8256 25200 25200 0 ::::::: ~~~~~~~::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: z:::: ::::: ::::: ::=:: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: CIICULTUUE 504 59 4442 5075 2000 3075 1380 10S 300 0 0 0 Land eveiopeent 1000 0 1000 578 0 578 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Aric. - Iritish Aid Projects 54 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Agric. Production - aimn (Counterpar 103 0 103 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ehab. of Agric. - Livestock 450 450 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Acquisition of Land 2200 0 2200 1000 0 1000 0 0 0 0 0 0 Peanut Project - Barbuda 123 0 123 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Livestock Development 80 70 10 2680 2000 680 1380 1090 300 0 0 0 Cassada 6ardens Show Stands 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ASIC Diversification Programe 1000 0 1000 817 0 817 0 0 0 0 0 0 U'DUSIRY 2551 1 2550 468 0 468 0 0 0 0 0 0 Factory Shell Extension - Coolidge I 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Factory Shells 2000 0 2000 48 0 468 0 0 0 0 0 0 Renovation of IDO Plant 50 0 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Factory Shell - Oarbuda 50 0 500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOURIM 228557 218648 9909 38799 2000 36799 15516 9300 6216 19200 19200 0 Sunset viev uest House - Barbuda 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Deep Say Hotel Project 192000 189000 3000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Expansion of Halcyon Cove Hotel 5909 0 5909 4000 0 4000 0 0 0 0 0 0 English Harbour Park Project 2000 2000 0 2000 2000 0 1500 1500 0 0 0 0 St.John's Redevelopeoet -Shopping Coup 27648 27648 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 St.John's Redevelopeent - Pier 1000 0 1000 32799 0 32799 1450 0 1450 0 0 0 St John's Redevelopeent-Enter. Compl. 0 0 0 0 0 0 12566 7800 4766 19200 19200 0 TrMSPORTATION 12695 4943 7752 2046 0 2046 300 3000 0 6000 6000 0 Fort Authority - Capital Expenditure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Airport Rehab. a Runnya Resurfacing 3080 1197 1883 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Equipment - Airport loprovement 16l 0 161 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Airport Ancillary Infr. 30 0 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Airstrip Isprovement 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Road Rehabilitation 3750 3741 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Village Roads Reconstruction & Drains 821 0 821 0 0 0 1000 1000 0 0 0 0 Airport Terainal - Roads & Parking 708 0 708 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Road Reconstruction & luproveient 30 0 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Funding Scheme - Public Vorks (Equip) 4110 0 4110 2046 0 2046 0 0 0 0 0 0 Road Reconstruction II 0 0 0 0 0 0 2000 2000 0 6000 6000 0 -13- P u2 of 3 ANTICUJ & *ASUDA: PULIC SECTOI CAPITAL EXPE3ITUIE, 19e7-90 (EC5 OOO) (Cont.) 1967 196 1909 1990 ONGO ING _ _ _-- _--_----_-_-_-- ___ ____ iiOJECTS Total Ext Local Total Ext Local Total Eit Local Total Est Local UTILITIES 122045 121054 "I 15128 14528 600 10400 10400 0 0 0 0 Cassada Gardens-Emergency PouerSu W 66 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Electricity Improvement 145 145 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oesalination Plant 1/ 111472 111472 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Electricity & ater Neters 125 125 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nater Supply Expan. - Fort James etc. 608 608 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mater - Creekside & North Shore 361 0 361 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Uater Improvement Grant 37 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Telephone Expansion 1/ 4300 4300 0 10028 10028 0 10400 10400 0 0 0 0 Barbuda Electricity 6enerators 1030 1000 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Electricity Distribution 1/ 3301 3301 0 4500 4500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cassada Garden Drainage 600 0 600 600 0 600 0 0 0 0 0 0 EDUCATION 2030 1254 776 782 422 360 2597 1877 720 0 0 0 Construction of Classroo s 143 0 143 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reconstruction - Clare Hall School 293 293 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Basic Needs Trust Fund 118 118 0 0 0 0 1877 1877 0 0 0 0 Rehabilitation of Sendalls School 343 343 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Renovation of Schools - Other 273 0 273 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 School Buses (12) 360 0 360 360 0 360 720 0 720 0 0 0 Rehabilitation of Suetes School 500 500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Clare Hall School - Phase II 0 0 0 422 422 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEALTH CARE 1803 146 1657 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Vehicles - Health 190 0 190 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Holberton Hospital 1165 0 1165 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nental Hospital 302 0 302 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Health and Fasily Life Unit 51 51 0 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Family Planning Project 95 95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ADHINISTRATION 3279 163 3116 2329 0 2329 1000 0 1000 0 0 0 Treasury Computers 67 0 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fire and Broadcasting Equipment 577 0 577 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Govt. Buildings Reconstruction 943 0 943 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Construction of Office Complex 250 0 250 2329 0 2329 1000 0 1000 0 0 0 Government Printery 163 163 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Computers - Inland Revenue & Customs 1008 0 1008 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Government Printery - Equipment 271 0 271 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31W I 3 : PAR eCTO WIcLa EEITUIC, 1W-90 (EdSWI) (Cat.) _15w 1 1909 19 mm - - --- --------- --------- -------- S TS Thbl Eit Local Total Eat Loal Total Est Local Total Eit Local * IlK~lMIE 1963I 661%21 2I I 2W I O 0 6 S S Fire am em Eqdpmmt 1 I 292 I 0 S I 0 O 0 0 0 Pslic .vuicle 0 I I 0 0 3 I 0 0 0 0 O P.liceS ttim a 1Elpm.t 12 44 110 0 * 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 PlinIu 10 I 10 0 0 0 0 0 O 0 6 6 0 hwlpumt of arhe 303 35052W 0 W 0S 0 0 0 1 0 Cmstrcti of slice Statims 15W 0 156 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Training - lice 22 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ftlic EEisu t 37 * 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fire lripa Egiomt 051 0 051 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 trismo Eqiip t 216 0 210 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Leulo o Noiosi - 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Othr 9329 0 9329 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1iw 1988 199 1ff0 KM-l ----------------- ---------------- __ __-_-_ PrOJECTS Total Est Local Total Ext Local Total Ext Local Total Ext Local - --- - - - - - - - -- --- - -- - - - __ _- - - -- - ------------------ - - ----- - - ------ - -- - -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- ---- NEU 0 0 0 3661 38219 443 7152 6653 499 6629 6174 455 ASRICULTUIC 0 0 0 1340 1340 0 2373 2208 165 2122 199 125 Fisheries Dwloput 0 0 0 1340 1340 0 1340 1340 0 1340 1340 0 Livstockk kwelopmt I 0 0 0 0 0 0 1033 868 165 782 657 125 TOMh3N 0 0 0 33750 33750 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 IOp la 00tel Project - Phs II 0 0 0 33750 33750 0 0 0 0 0 0 u EOJCATION 0 0 0 130 1350 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WIadls - Vocatief & Science iMe 0 0 0 450 450 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Atigu Cirls Scsosl - Tch. Voc. 0 0 0 Bo0 Bo 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ithabilitatiruares Schl - Paso I 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NISCELLNIEOUS 0 0 0 2221 1778 443 4779 4445 334 4507 4177 330 0 Nousiag - mm 0 0 0 2221 1778 443 4779 4445 334 4507 4177 330 TOTAL-ALL PROJECTS 397687 346873 50814 103538 57218 46320 41045 32310 8735 31829 31374 455 NM Items: 1/ Cm estimte expod itare * - Estimates p - Projectio - 15 - AM= II Statistical Appendix l~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ i 1 - 16 - ANTIOGA AID ARBUDA STATISTICAL APPVIDIX TabSl of Contente Table No. 1 Sectoral Origin of GDP at Current Prices, 1980-86 2 Sectoral Origin of GDP at Constant Prices, 1980-86 3 Balance of Payments, 1980-87 4 Actual and Projected Balance of Payments, 1986-92 5 Exports by S.I.T.C. Section, 1983-87 6 Imports by S.I.T.C. Section, 1983-87 7 Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 1983-87 8 Central Government Revenue, 1982-87 9 Central Government Operations, 1982-87 - 17 - Tab'- 1: ANTIUAM AND SIU3DA - SECTORA1 ORIGIN OF GDP AT CURRENT PRICES, 190-86 (ECS Nillion) prel 1980 1981 1902 1983 1904 1905 1906 Agriculture 18.3 19.6 19.7 21.8 19.3 23.2 24.6 Crops 3.3 4.5 5.5 5.1 4.9 7.2 7.3 Livestock 6.0 7.6 8.4 8.6 5.2 6,3 6.5 Forestry 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 Fishing 8.6 7.1 5.4 7.6 8.0 9.0 10.1 Industry 46.6 53.4 46.3 50.7 63.1 77.7 101.8 Mining and Quarrying 1.5 1.7 1.5 2.3 3.0 4.6 9.9 Manufacturing 13.7 14.6 16.8 17.6 19.3 20.3 21.5 Construction 23.2 27.7 20.4 20.5 28.3 35.7 50.6 Electricity and Hater 8.2 9.4 7.6 10.3 12.5 17.2 19.9 Services 189.6 211.3 244.8 275.0 310.2 356.S 383.5 Wholesale and Retail Trade 30.6 33.4 36.4 38.7 43.1 48.2 52.6 Hotels and Restaurants 35.8 37.3 40.8 45.5 58.7 73.5 81.0 Transport 29.6 33.3 36.2 40.4 43.9 52.8 58.6 Road Transport 14.2 15.9 15.6 17.4 19.6 22.6 24.4 Sea Transport 4.4 5.0 5.7 5.7 6.5 8.5 9.8 Air Transport 11.0 12.4 14.9 17.3 17.7 21.7 24.4 Communications 12.0 14.9 20.7 23.1 27.1 28.6 30.5 Banks and Insurance 15.7 18.7 22.3 23.8 28.7 31.3 33.5 Real Estate & Housing 26.5 29.9 34.4 41.5 45.8 48.6 51.5 Government Services 33.0 37.0 47.5 50.9 51.6 60.4 61.7 Other Services 16.7 19.9 23.4 28.1 33.2 39.2 43.9 Less Imputed 10.3 13.1 16.9 17.0 21.9 26.1 30.0 Service Charges GDP at factor cost 254.5 284.3 310.8 347.5 392.6 457.4 509.9 Net Indirect Taxes 40.2 46.9 56.9 58.6 66.9 77.2 112.3 GDP at Market Prices 294.7 331.2 367.7 406.0 459.5 534.4 622.0 Source: OECS, September 1987 - 18 - Table 2: AHTICUA AM UUM - SECTORAL OIIIN OF GUP AT CONSTANT PRICES, 1980-86 (EC$ million at 1977 prices) prel 1900 191 1982 1983 1984 1985 1906 -------------------------_ ----- Agriclture 13.9 12.4 11.7 11.6 9.3 9.4 10.1 …---------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- ----- Crops 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 Livestock 5.5 5.6 6.2 6.4 3.8 4.3 4.5 Forestry 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 Fishing 5.9 4.0 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.3 2.6 Iandstry 35.9 40.8 33.9 34.2 38.3 43.5 54.0 Mining and Quarrying 1.2 1.1 0.9' 1.1 1.6 2.5 5.6 Nanufacturing 11.4 13.9 13.9 14.2 14.8 15.2 15.8 Construction 17.2 18.9 11.7 10.8 14.0 16.8 22.7 Electricity and Miter 6.1 6.9 7.4 8.1 8.0 9.0 9.9 Services 14i.4 145.8 153.3 170.6 183.7 196.9 205.6 … Wholesale and Retail Trade 20.6 20.6 21.6 21.9 23.2 24.5 26.0 Hotels and Restaurants 25.9 25.9 26.1 30.8 38.9 42.7 45.7 Transport 24.4 24.4 24.7 27.8 30.2 32.6 34.7 Road Transport 10.8 11.1 10.3 11.4 11.7 12.5 13.2 Sea Transport 3.1 3.1 3.8 4.5 4.6 5.1 5.5 Air Transport 10.5 10.2 10.6 11.9 13.9 15.0 16.1 Coomunications 10.0 11.7 16.0 21.5 21.6 22.8 23.3 Banks and Insurance 13.9 14.9 13.6 14.6 15.3 16.1 16.7 Real Estate & Housing 20.7 21.5 22.5 23.2 23.6 24.5 25.5 Government Services 21.9 21.5 21.9 23.4 22.8 24.7 25.2 Other Services 13.0 14.8 14.9 16.3 17.3 18.7 18.9 Less Imputed 8.9 9.4 8.0 8.9 9.4 9.8 10.4 Service Charges GDP at factor cost 191.2 199.0 198.9 216.4 231.3 249.8 269.7 Net indirect taxes 30.2 32.8 36.4 36.5 39.4 42.2 59.4 GDP at market prices 221.4 231.9 235.3 252.8 270.8 292.0 329.1 RORUTH RATE (GDP. fc) 7.7 4.1 -0.1 8.8 6.9 8.0 8.0 GDP DEFLATOR (1977:100) 133.1 142.8 156.2 160.6 169.7 183.1 189.1 Source: OECS, September 1987. - 19 - Table 3: ANTIBU AND BAWUDA - IALANCE OF PAYJENTS, 1980-1907 (USS Killion) prel est 1900 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 198? Exports--Goods 59.5 51.4 49.3 36.5 35.2 20.3 28.0 30.8 Imports--Goods -126.2 -137.8 -159.4 -148.7 -165.2 -192.2 -316.3 -271.9 Nonfactor services(net) 34.0 39.8 67.3 92.9 116.9 134.3 145.9 168.8 Travel (net) 35.5 40.5 67.4 91.9 116.3 134.4 152.2 171.2 Other NFS (net) -0.7 -0.7 -0.1 1.0 0.6 -0.1 -6.3 -2.4 Resource Balance (GINFS) -31.9 -46.6 -42.8 -19.3 -13.1 -29.6 -142.4 -79.3 Net Factor Income -0.5 -1.2 -4.4 -0.3 -0.8 -7.7 -8.3 -19.0 of which: Interest Public Debt -2.3 -3.1 -4.3 -3.5 -2.9 -2.1 -2.2 -12.0 Other Factor Services (net) 1.8 1.9 -0.1 3.2 2.1 -5.6 -6.1 -7.0 Private Transfers (net) 7.0 7.8 8.3 10.0 11.9 12.5 13.5 14.1 Current Account -25.4 , -40.0 -38.9 -9.6 -2.0 -24.8 -137.2 -84.2 Official Transfers and Grants 3.1 2.6 0.7 0.6 2.6 1.7 3.3 2.6 Official Capital (net) 4.0 14.3 6.7 -1.3 -4.9 -4.7 109.4 56.4 Coamercial Banks -1.3 0.3 8.6 -2.7 -0.6 9.4 8.0 -1.7 Private Capital 1/ 17.2 22.0 20.2 6.8 4.5 15.5 19.8 20.4 Capital Account 23.0 39.2 36.2 3.4 1.6 21.9 140.5 77.7 overall balance -2.4 -0.8 -2.7 -6.2 -0.4 -2.9 3.3 -6.5 Financing 2.4 0.8 3.2 6.2 0.4 2.9 -3.3 6.5 Change in govetnent Foreign Assets -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 Change in Imputed Reserves Assets 2.0 -0.6 -1.2 -1.4 -6.9 -3.2 -9.0 -1.8 Official Payments Arrears 0.6 1.5 4.4 7.6 7.5 6.2 5.8 8.3 Principal 0.2 0.3 1.3 4.8 5.6 5.1 4.3 3.4 Interest 0.4 1.2 3.1 2.8 1.9 1.1 1.5 4.7 1/ Includes errors and omissions. SOURCE: Ninistry of Finance, Statistics Division; Eastern Caribbean Central Bank; and IF estimates. -20- A Table 4i #ATI1A SAN HA - ACTU AND PR CTED DAACE OF PAYNENTS, 1986-1M 1US Nillion) Prel. Est. 161 1967 96 1M 199 11 1M Eswts--Goods 26.0 30.6 32.1 33.3 34.7 36.1 37.5 lmports--Bouds -316.3 -278.9 -236.4 -335.1 -327.5 -344.6 -372.2 Srwvices (met) 137.4 149.8 170.1 192.8 219.2 253.3 277.0 Touris 152.2 171.2 200.7 224.4 250.5 279.5 301.7 Interest -2.2 -12.0 -20.4 -20.5 -19.0 -17.3 -15.6 Other -12.4 -9.4 -10.0 -11.1 -12.3 -8.9 -9.1 Private Transfers (net) 13.5 14.1 14.8 15.6 16.3 17.2 18.0 Current Account -137.2 -94.2 -71.4 -93.4 -57.3 -38.2 -39.7 Official 6rants 3.3 2.6 4.0 2.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 Official Loans 115.8 72.2 3.0 7.3 7.8 - - Amortisation (scheduled) -6.4 -15.8 -34.0 -21.0 -21.1 -20.9 -20.9 Official Obligations (overdue) - - -41.3 - - - - Coomercial lanks (net) 8.0 -1.7 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 Private Capital I/ 19.8 20.4 - - - - - Other (intl priv) - - 142.7 108.2 73.1 62.1 63.7 Capital Account 140.5 77.7 73.5 95.8 60.4 41.6 43.3 Overall Blance 3.3 -6.5 2.1 2.4 3.1 3.4 3.6 Financing -3.3 6.5 -2.1 -2.4 -3.1 -3.4 -3.6 Change in governuent -0.1 - - - - - - Foreign Assets Change in Imputed -9.0 -1.8 -2.1 -2.4 -3.1 -3.4 -3.6 Reserve Assets ibficial Payments Arrears 5.8 8.3 - - - - - 1/ Includes errors and omissions. SOURCE: Ninistry of Finance, Statistics Division; Eastern Caribbean Central Dank; and staff estimates. Table 5: LANTIMD LAS hJJCUIt - EXPOMTS IV S.I.T.1. SECTION, 1903-07 (ISO lilliom) piel est poi 1963 1964 191S I1 1914 1w JOlLA EXPORTS 36.5 3S.2 2.3 26.1 29.2 _mstic Exwts 14.2 9.2 6.1 10.1 11.0 Faud aW live minls 0.5 6.5 0.3 6.3 6.3 kvoerags ad tobacce 0.5 6.4 0.2 0.3 6.3 Crude rterils, inedible, except fuel 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fuwl 2/ 3.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.8 Cheicals 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 Nmufactured goods 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 Naciwery ad transport equip. 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.7 0.8 Nuufactured articles 7.2 5.7 5.8 5.0 5.4 Niscellaneous 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total k-Exports 22.3 26.0 20.2 18.0 18.2 Food and live anisals 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 Beverages and tobacco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Crude materials, inedible, except fuel 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 Fuel 3/ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Chemicals 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 anufactured goods 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Nachinery and transport equip. 5.1 4.4 2.0 3.1 3.2 anufactured articles 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 Niscellneous 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ke-exports of petro products 4/ 15.1 19.8 16.0 13.0 13.1 AS PERCENT OF W Total Exports 24.3 20.7 14.3 12.2 11.9 omestic Exports 9.4 5.4 4.1 4.4 4.3 le-Exports 14.9 15.3 10.2 7.8 7.1 ---- --- ---- --- ---- --- --- ---- --- ---- --- --- ---- --- ---- ---_ - 1/ Based on actual data for the first six conths of the year. 2/ Represents exports of refined prtroleua products by the Vest Indies Oil Comany which ceased operation in 1902. 3/ Set equal to zero to avoid double courwting. 4/ kerived from data provided by the VIOiC and Texaco; includes estinmted sales of jet fuel and bunkering. SOURCE: Ninistry of Finance, Statistics Division; and INF estimates. -22- table 6: ANTIOU AND SISUDA - INPOATS BY S.I.T.C. SECTION, 1983-87 (s$ Klillion) prel est proj 1983 1984 1985 1/ 1986 1987 TOTAL WORTS 148.7 165.1 207.9 316.4 278.9 Food and live animal: 21. 1 25.1 28.4 49.8 49.4 levweages and tobacco 3.8 4.3 5.4 7.9 8.0 Crude materials, inedible except fuel 3.0 2.5 3.4 5.0 4.4 Ninerals and fuel lubricants 0.9 1.4 2.7 2.3 2.0 Animal and vegetable oils 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 Chemicals 7.3 8.4 9.0 15.1 13.3 Nanufactured materials 14.5 16.6 28.3 55.2 56.0 NKchimery and transports equip. 19.0 28.8 44.5 69.7 68.7 mnufactured articles 14.1 11.9 19.4 38.3 40.5 Niscellanous goods 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 Oil imports 2/ 24.5 31.6 30.8 32.0 35.0 lMrecorded imworts 40.2 34.0 35.6 40.0 0.7 AS PERCENT OF 60P Total lports 98.9 97.1 105.0 137.3 107.7 I/ ased on actual data for the first half oF the year. 2/ Derived from data proviced by VIOC and Texaco. SOURC: Ninistry of Finace, Statistics Division; Vest Indies Oil Companty; ad IIF estimates. -23- TabJe 7: ANTJGU & SAISIA: PMILIC AM PSICLY CUMINTEEO EXTEII^MI EST 1/, 1963-07 (USS million) prel est prel 1913 1964 1915 196 1967 1. Total Debt Outstandins, including interest arrears (end year) 62.7 587 62.2 10.7 245.4 2. SchXeded obligatioos on debt contracted as of end 1997 9.5 10.0 864 3.6 27.3 Interest 3.5 2.9 2.1 2.2 12.0 Principal 6.0 7.1 6.5 6.4 15.8 3. Cash paysents on debt obligations 1.9 2.6 2.4 2.7 19.6 Interest 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.6 7.3 Pripcipal 1.2 1.5 1.4 2.1 12.3 4. Annual change of arrears 7.6 7.4 6.2 5.9 8.2 Interest 2.8 1.8 1.1 1.6 4.? Principal 4.8 5.6 5.1 4.3 3.5 5. Valuation adiustment on outstanding stock of arrears -2.2 -4.0 1.2 2.1 0.4 Interest -1.2 -3.4 0.1 0.5 0.0 Principal -1.0 -0.6 1.1 1.6 0.4 6. Stock of arrears outstanding at end year 2/ 13.8 17.2 24.7 32.6 41.3 Interest 7.0 S.4 6.7 8.7 13.5 Principal 6.8 11.8 10.0 23.9 27.8 AS PERCENT OF SG Debt outstanding/GDP 41.7 34.5 31.4 78.4 94.8 Stock of arrears/lDP 9.2 10.1 12.5 14.1 15.9 Debt service/exports, goods & services 6 9 6.0 4.8 4.4 12.6 Debt service/Public sector revenue 24.1 21.4 16.3 12.3 41.1 Average interest rate 3/ 6.5 5.2 3.9 4.0 7.0 1/ Nedium and long term debt. Excludes debt held by ECCJ. 2/ Equal to stock of arrears at end of preceding year plus lines 4 and 5. 3/ Total interest obligations as percentage of outstanding principal. SOURCE: Iinistry of Finance, IF estiates -24- Table 8: ANTIi6A AND BARDUCA: CENTRAL GOVERIEKNT REVENUE, 1982-87 (ECS *illion! prel Mit 1962 1963 1964 1995 199 1967 D1"ES'IC CURRENT REVENUE 93.8 97.8 98.8 113.4 150.8 162.3 Direct taxln 11.8 11.7 15.5 21.7 20.3 22.7 Inwome Tax 10.7 10.3 13.9 20.0 19.4 20.9 Of which: Corporation Tax 10.2 9.7 13.0 19.3 17.4 18.0 Property Tax 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 Indirect Taxes 57.1 58.5 66.9 77.1 112.4 119.2 Consumption taxes a/ 21.5 21.0 23.8 26.0 38.9 41.0 Import duties 18.9 18.3 22.0 26.2 31.3 33.3 Hotel and quest taxes 4.6 5.5 6.4 8.9 9.8 11.0 Travel tax 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.8 1.8 Embarkation tax 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.4 Teleco.munication tax 1.2 1.9 1.7 2.4 3.0 3.2 Stamp duties 2.6 1.6 3.2 3.7 5.6 6.0 Foreign currency levy 3.4 3.8 3.6 1.8 6.9 5.7 Other 3.2 4.5 4.1 5.7 13.1 14.8 Nontax revenue 24.9 17.6 16.4 14.6 18.1 20.4 Currency profits 2.7 2.0 1.6 2.0 3.3 3.2 US bases 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 Licensen and fees 2.3 2.8 2.6 3.1 3.8 4.9 Post Office revenue bI 4.7 1.6 1.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 Interest earned on counterpart external deposits 8.9 4.7 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 2.1 2.3 2.9 4.5 6.0 7.3 a/ Includes surcharge. b/ Includes philatelic sales. SOURCE: Ministry of Finance; Treasury; IMF estimates. -25- Pa I f 2 Table It ATIA AN USAIT CEITIAL 110_N WERATI, 132-197 (ECS Glii) 1912 1933 19W Ca Arrows Acr. Co ArNrws kcr. Cb Arrers kcr. lubstic Cwrut Revenue 93.1 0.0 93.8 87.8 0.0 87.8 9.3 0.0 3.3 Corrt Expepditeres 39.3 17.3 106.6 II.2 14.1 ".3 94.6 14.3 10.9 Peruual Emolats 43.2 -- 43.2 43.9 -- 43.9 45. -- 45.5 Established 24.5 -- 24.5 25.4 - 25.4 27.4 - 27.4 Nb-nteablished 18.7 -- 18.7 13.5 -- 18.5 18.1 - 18.1 Social S ecuity -- 3.7 3.7 -- 3.7 3.7 1.3 2.1 3.4 Nidical Ienefits -- 2.3 2.3 -- 2.4 2.4 -- 2.3 2.3 Goods and Services 21.4 2.0 23.4 22.6 0.6 23.4 26.9 5.1 32.0 P-nsions and Grants 4.4 -- 4.4 5.5 -- 5.5 5.4 - 5.4 Internst 18.5 7.2 25.7 10.9 7.2 18.1 12.7 4.4 17.1 Forcion 11.6 7.1 18.7 5.6 6.0 11.6 5.8 3.0 8.8 Doestic 6.9 0.1 7.0 5.3 1.2 6.5 6.9 1.4 8.3 Public Sector Transfers 0.3 -- 0.3 0.2 - 0.2 0.1 -- 0.1 International Transfers 1.2 -- 1.2 1.5 - 1.5 1.4 - 1.4 Private Sector Transfers 0.3 -- 0.3 0.6 - 0.6 1.3 -- 1.3 Extra-budgetary expenditure 0.0 -- 0.0 0.0 - 0.0 0.0 - 0.0 Current Account lalance 4.5 -17.3 -12.9 2.6 -14.1 -11.5 4.2 -14.3 -10.1 Capital Receipts 3.8 0.0 3.8 1.7 0.0 1.7 10.4 0.0 10.4 Capital Expenditure 40.6 0.0 40.6 12.4 0.0 12.4 19.5 0.0 18.5 Fixed Investments 32.6 -- 32.6 9.6 -- 9.6 10.8 -- 10.8 Purchased Land 8.0 - 8.0 0.8 -- 0.8 6.2 - 6.2 Net Lending -- - 0.0 2.0 - 2.0 1.5 - 1.5 Capital Transfers -- -- -- -- -- -- - Overall Deficit -32.3 -17.3 -49.6 -8.1 -14.1 -22.2 -3.9 -14.3 -18.2 Financing 32.3 17.3 49.6 8.1 14.1 22.2 3.9 14.3 18.2 Total Foreign Fin.(netl 19.7 -2.9 15.8 0.5 -10.8 -10.3 -1.7 -12.2 -13.9 Drawings on Foreign Loans 22.5 - 22.5 4.1 -- 4.1 2.1 -- 2.1 Change in Foreign ssets -0.1 -- -0.1 -0.1 - -0.1 -0.5 - -0.5 Amort. of External Debt -3.7 -2.9 -6.6 -3.5 -10.9 -14.3 -3.3 -12.2 -15.5 Oosestic Finincing(net) 13.6 - 13.6 7.7 0.0 7.7 5.6 0.0 5.6 Commercial Banks 7.3 - 7.3 7.9 -- 7.9 -12.5 -- -12.5 ECCB 2.0 -- ;0 -- -- 0.0 20.9 -- 20.9 Rest of Public Sector 1.9 -- 1.9 0.1 -- 0.1 1.8 -- 1.8 Other Private Sector 2.4 -- 2.4 -0.3 - -0.3 -4.6 - 4.6 Buildup of Arrears - 20.2 20.2 - 24.9 24.9 0.0 26.5 26.5 r ce: Ministry of Finance; IW estimates. -26- Pap 2 e 2 Table i ITIIM S MfIIAt COWU MIIMn OPUATIM, 1932-1917 (EC sillia) (Cwt.) 19 Prel 1916 Estiet, 1907 Cad Arres lccr. Cna Arrws ccr. Cub Arrows kcr. _tic Cwrrunt km" 113.4 0.0 113.4 150.3 0.0 150.1 12.3 0.0 162.3 Curut Expueitur 106.1 13.5 119.6 129.0 10.3 139.3 156.3 10.7 147.5 Perual Easluests 53.5 -- 53.5 59.3 -- 59.0 75.6 - 75.6 Establidwe 31.4 - 31.4 35.1 -- 35.1 43.0 - 43.0 Uin-tahlis&.d 22.1 -- 22.1 24.7 -- 24.7 32.6 - 32.6 mSKIal Scurity 0.7 3.6 4.3 0.3 4.5 4.8 1.0 4.9 5.9 Nedical enefits -- 2.7 2.7 1.7 3.0 4.7 -- 3.8 3.8 Beas and Services 30.0 3.5 33.5 39.0 -- 39.0 47.5 0.0 47.5 Feuns and rants 5.1 -- S.1 7.1 3.3 10.4 8.9 2.0 10.9 lIterest 9.3 3.7 13.0 11.9 3.3 15.2 15.0 3.0 19.0 Fareip 1.9 2.2 4.1 1.7 1.7 3.4 4.4 2.0 6.4 mnstic 7.4 1.5 8.9 10.2 1.6 11.8 10.6 - 10.6 Public Sector Trnsfers 0.0 - 0.0 0.1 -- 0.1 1.5 - 1.5 lvternational Tracfers 2.8 -- 2.8 2.1 -- 2.1 2.0 - 2.0 Private Sector Transfers 1.0 -- 1.0 0.4 -- 0.4 1.3 - 1.8 Estra-budjetary eup"diture 3.7 -- 3.7 8.3 - 8.3 3.5 -- 3.5 Current Account alance 7.3 -13.5 -6.2 21.8 -10.9 11.0 5.5 -10.7 -5.2 Capital Receipts 2.3 0.0 2.3 7.1 0.0 7.1 9.0 0.0 9.0 Capital Expenditure 13.3 0.0 13.3 69.5 0.0 69.5 23.1 0.0 23.1 Fixed lomvsteents 12.7 -- 12.7 58.9 -- 58.9 16.7 - 16.7 Purchased Land 1.9 -- 1.9 10.6 -- 10.6 2.5 - 2.5 Net Leding -1.2 - -1.2 0.0 -- 0.0 0.1 -- 0.1 Capital Transfers - - -- - -- 3.6 ilvrall Deficit -3.7 -13.5 -17.2 -40.6 -10.9 -51.4 -8.6 -10.7 -19.3 Finacing 3.7 13.5 17.2 40.6 10.8 51.4 8.6 10.7 19.3 Total Foerign Fin.(net) -2.7 -10.0 -12.7 25.2 -7.4 17.8 -1.2 -1.7 -2.9 Dravings o Foreign Loans -- -- 0.0 25.7 -- 25.7 1.2 -- 1.2 Change in Foreign Assts -0.2 -- -0.2 -0.2 -- -0.2 -- - 0.0 Aert. of External Debt -2.5 -10.0 -12.5 -0.2 -7.4 -7.6 -2.5 -1.7 -4.2 Domestic Financing(net) 6.4 - 6.4 15.3 -- 15.3 9.8 - 9.8 Coooercial anks 2.3 -- 2.3 6.5 -- 6.5 7.5 - 7.5 ECC 1,5 -- 1.5 3.1 -- 3.1 -- - 0.0 Rest of Public Sector 0.2 0.2 0.9 -- 0.9 -- -- 0.0 Other Private Sector 2.4 - 2.4 4.8 -- 4.8 2.3 -- 2.3 Buildup of Arrears 0.0 23.5 23.5 -- 18.2 18.2 -- 12.4 12.4 _ _ _ _~~~~~~ - - - -- - -- - - -- -- - -- -- - -- - __ -- - -------------------- _ _ *0£ aus