9803 WORLD BANK i COMPARATIVE STUDIESI The Political Economy of Agricultural Pricing Policy Trade, Exchange Rates, and Agricultural Pricing Policy in Portugal Francisco Avillez, Timothy J. Finan, and Timothy Josling  The Political Economy of Agricultural Pricing Policy Trade, Exchange Rates, and Agricultural Pricing Policy in Portugal Francisco Avillez, Timothy J. Finan, and Timothy Josling WORLD BANK COMPARATIVE STUDIES The World Bank Washington, D.C. Copyright @ 1988 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing August 1988 World Bank Comparative Studies are undertaken to increase the Bank's capacity to offer sound and relevant policy recommendations to its member countries. Each series of studies, of which The Political Economy of Agricultural Pricing Policy is one, comprises several empirical, multicountry reviews of key economic policies and their effects on the development of the countries in which they were implemented. A synthesis report on each series will compare the findings of the studies of individual countries to identify common patterns in the relation between policy and outcome-and thus to increase understanding of development and economic policy. The series The Political Economy of Agricultural Pricing Policy, under the direction of Anne 0. Krueger, Maurice Schiff, and Alberto Vald6s, was undertaken to examine the reasons underlying pricing policy, to quantify the systematic and extensive intervention of developing countries in the pricing of agricultural commodities during 1960-85, and to understand the effects of such intervention over time. Each of the eighteen country studies uses a common methodology to measure the effect of sectoral and economywide price intervention on agricultural incentives and food prices, as well as their effects on output, consumption, trade, intersectoral transfers, government budgets, and income distribution. The political and economic forces behind price intervention are analyzed, as are the efforts at reform of pricing policy and their consequences. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions in this series are entirely those of the authors and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The material in this publication is copyrighted. Requests for permission to reproduce portions of it should be sent to Director, Publications Department at the address shown in the copyright notice above. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally give permission promptly and, when the reproduction is for noncommercial purposes, without asking a fee. Permission to photocopy portions for classroom use is not required, though notification of such use having been made will be appreciated. The complete backlist of World Bank publications is shown in the annual Index of Publications, which contains an alphabetical title list and indexes of subjects, authors, and countries and regions; it is of value principally to libraries and institutional purchasers. The latest edition is available free of charge from Publications Sales Unit, Department F, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A., or from Publications, The World Bank, 66, avenue d'Ina, 75116 Paris, France. Francisco Avillez is with the Instituto Superior de Agronomia of the Lisbon Technical University; Timothy J. Finan is associate director of the Bureau of Applied Research in Anthropology at the University of Arizona; Timothy Josling is a professor of agricultural economics at the Food Research Institute of Stanford University. All are consultants to the World Bank. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Avillez, Francisco, 1945- Trade, exchange rates, and agricultural pricing in Portugal / Francisco Avillez, Timothy J. Finan, Timothy Josling. p. cm. -- (The Political economy of agricultural pricing policy) (World Bank comparative studies) Bibliography: p. ISBN 0-8213-1120-4 1. Agriculture and state--Portugal. 2. Agricultural prices- -Portugal. 3. Portugal--Commercial policy. 4. Foreign exchange administration--Portugal. L. Finan, Timothy J. II. Josling, Timothy Edward. III. Title. IV. Series. V. Series: World Bank comparative studies. HD2028.A94 1988 338.1'8469--dcl9 88-20818 Abstract Agricultural policy in Portugal, like the industry itself, has had a strongly regional flavor. Most of the government's support for agriculture until the mid-1960s was given to the latifundia areas of southern Portugal, principally through high wheat prices. In turn, the large landowners of the South supported the Salazar regime. By the late 1960s the government's emphasis had shifted to the small-fam areas of the North, with programs to encourage milk production, and to the central valleys, where tomato processing and livestock feeding were stimulated. Meanwhile, cereal prices remained highly protected. The 1974 Revolution, coinciding with a period of rapid inflation in Portugal and high international commodity prices, changed the orientation of farm policies. For most of the 1970s the emphasis was on cheap food for the urban worker, and considerable sums of money were spent on consumer subsidies. The prices of animal feed and fertilizer were kept low to encourage production, but uncertainties surrounding land tenure following the expropriation of many large estates, coupled with a series of droughts, led to stagnation of domestic output. The need to control government spending and a desire to stimulate production led to a return in the early 1980s to higher producer prices and the removal of consumer subsidies. The higher producer prices for cereals are now being reduced as a part of the transitional arrangements following the accession of Portugal to the European Community in 1986. Economy-wide policies (macroeconomic, exchange rate, and industrial protection policies) had a small impact on agricultural incentives compared to sector-specific policies during the period analyzed. This is in contrast with the 17 other developing countries examined in this project. In those countries, economy-wide policies have had a much more significant effect on agricultural prices than has direct intervention. -v - CONTENTS Page Portugal and its Economy 1 Policy Intervention in Portuguese Agriculture 16 Measures of Policy Intervention 39 The Impact of Price Intervention on Supply 56 and Demand The Effect of Price Intervention on the 70 Government Budget Resource Transfers and Agriculture 77 The Effects of Agricultural Pricing Policies 84 on Income Distribution Policy Intervention and Price Stability 94 The Determinants of Policy on Agricultural Prices 96 Phases of Intervention and the Experience with Reform 101 Bibliography 126 Supplemental Tables 127 Annexes 183 - vi - Text Tables Page Map 1 Regions of Portugal 2 Table 1 Population and Labor Force, Continental Portugal 3 Table 2 GNP and Its Components 6 Table 3 Agriculture as a Component of the Whole Economy 8 Table 4 Indices of Food Production and Consumption 11 Table 5 Distribution of Agricultural Land by Farm Size 15 Table 6 Government Revenues and Expenditures 18 Table 7 Evolution of the Real Exchange Rate 22 Table 8 Deflated Producer and Consumer Prices 42 Table 9 Nominal Protection Rates Due to Direct Price 47 Intervention Table 10 Nominal Protection Rates Due to Direct and Indirect 50 Price Intervention Table 11 Effective Rates of Protection Due to Direct Price 53 Intervention Table 12 Effective Rates of Protection Due to Direct and 54 Indirect Price Intervention Table 13 Short-Term and Cumulative Effects on Output of 58 Direct and Total Price Intervention Table 14 Effects of Price Policy on Consumption of Selected 63 Agricultural Products Table 15 Short-Term Effects on Foreign Exchange of Direct 65 Price Intervention Table 16 Cumulative Effects on Foreign Exchange of Direct 67 Price Intervention Table 17 Short-Term Effects on Foreign Exchange of Total 68 Price Intervention Table 18 Cumulative Effects on Foreign Exchange of Total 69 Price Intervention - vii - Page Table 19 Effect of Government Price Policies on Budget 71 Expenditures Table 20 Total Costs of Selected Subsidy Policies 72 Table 21 Government Investment and Total Expenditure 75 Share in Agriculture Table 22 Transfers Due to Direct Price Policies 79 Table 23 Transfers Due to Total Direct Intervention 80 Table 24 Transfers into and out of Agriculture Due to Price 82 and Non-price Policies Table 25 Public Investment in Agriculture 83 Table 26 Main Characteristics of Representative Portuguese 85 Farms Used in the Analysis Table 27 Evolution of Income for Representative Portuguese 86 Farms Table 28 Price Policy Effects on the Main Portuguese 88 Agricultural Commodities Table 29 Estimated Effects of Price Policies on Real Farm 89 Income of Representative Farms Table 30 Income Transfers as a Result of Direct and Indirect 91 Price Policies Table 31 Income Index of Representative Portuguese Farms 92 with and without Price Policies Table 32 Rural and Urban Income Distribution Effects of 93 Farm Price Policies Table 33 Impact of Policy Intervention on Price Stability 95 Table 34 Results of Price Policy Regressions 98 Table 35 Different Phases of Agricultural Policy Making 102 in Portugal, 1960-86 - viii - Supplement Tables Page Supp. Table 1 Indices of Agricultural Output for Food 127 and Non-Food Products Supp. Table 2 Indices of Agricultural Output for Traded 128-29 and Non-Traded Products Supp. Table 3 Indices of Food Production and Consumption 130 Supp. Table 4 Producer Prices of Selected Agricultural 131-32 Products Supp. Table 5 Index of Deflated Prices for Consumer Food 133 Products Supp. Table 6 Production of Selected Agricultural Commodities 134-36 Supp. Table 7 Consumption of Selected Food Crops 137-38 Supp. Table 8 Value of Imports of Selected Agricultural 139 Products Supp. Table 9 Value of Exports of Selected Agricultural 140 Products Supp. Table 10 Relative Weights of Objectives of Agricultural 141 Price Policy in Portugal, 1960-85 Supp. Table 11 Different Phases of Agricultural Policy 142 Making in Portugal, 1960-1986 Supp. Table 12 Deflated Producer Prices, Selected 143 Agricultural Commodities Supp. Table 13 Prevailing Consumer Prices, Selected 144 Agricultural Commodities Supp. Table 14 Deflated Producer Prices in the Absence of 145 Direct Price Intervention, Selected Agricultural Commodities Supp. Table 15 Nominal Protection Rates Due to Direct 146 Price Intervention, Selected Agricultural Commodities Supp. Table 16 Consumer Prices in the Absence of Direct 147 Price Intervention, Selected Agricultural Commodities Page Supp. Table 17 Deflated Producer Prices in the Absence of 148 Direct and Indirect Price Intervention, Selected Agricultural Commodities Supp. Table 18 Nominal Protection Rates due to Direct and 149 Indirect Price Intervention, Selected Agricultural Commodities Supp. Table 19 Consumer Prices in the Absence of Direct and 150 Indirect Price Interventions, Selected Agricultural Commodities Supp. Table 20 Deflated Producer Values Added in the Absence 151 of Direct Price Intervention, Selected Agricultural Commodities Supp. Table 21 Effective Rates of Protection Due to Direct 152 Price Interventions, Selected Agricultural Commodities Supp. Table 22 Deflated Producer Values Added in the Absence 153 of Direct and Indirect Price Interventions, Selected Agricultural Commodities Supp. Table 23 Effective Rates of Protection Due to Direct 154 and Indirect Price Intervention, Selected Agricultural Commodities Supp. Table 24 Short-Run Effect on Output of Direct Price 155-57 Interventions Supp. Table 25 Cumulative Effect on Output of Direct Price 158-60 Interventions Supp. Table 26 Short-Run Effects on Output of Direct and 161-63 Indirect Price Interventions Supp. Table 27 Cumulative Effects on Output of Direct and 164-66 Indirect Price Interventions Supp. Table 28 Direct and Indirect Short-Run Effects on 167-69 Foreign Exchange Earnings Supp. Table 29 Direct and Indirect Cummulative Effects on 170-72 Foreign Exchange Earnings Supp. Table 30 Per Unit and Total Costs of Selected Subsidy 173-75 Policies Supp. Table 31 Transfers Due to Direct and Total Effects 176-78 of Price Policies Supp. Table 32 Transfers Due to Direct and Total Effects of 179-81 Price Policies (Value Added Basis) Page Supp. Table 33 Real Instantaneous Income Effect in Rural 182 Areas of Direct Price Intervention in Agriculture Supp. Table 34 Real Instantaneous Income Effect in Rural Areas 182 of Total Price Intervention in Agriculture Supp. Table 35 Real Instantaneous Income Effect in Urban Areas 182 of Direct Price Intervention in Agriculture Supp. Table 36 Real Instantaneous Income Effect in Urban Areas 182 of Total Price Intervention in Agriculture - xi - Annexes Page Annex A Estimation of Real Equilibrium Exchange Rates 183 Annex B Estimation of Producer and Consumer Prices and 190 Producer Value Added in the Absence of Direct and Indirect Price Policies Annex C Estimation of Price Intervention Effects on Output 215 Estimation of Price Intervention Effects on Consumption Annex D Estimation of Effect of Price Intervention on Foreign 232 Exchange Earnings Annex E Estimation of Price Intervention Effects on Government 243 Expenditures Annex F Estimation of Effects of Price Interventions on 255 Transfers to and from the Agricultural Sector Annex G Estimation of Consumer Price Index for Different Groups 305 Annex H Estimation of Farm Income Impacts of Price Inter- 315 ventions through the Use of Representative Farms Annex I Estimation of Value Added in the Absence of Direct and 326 Indirect Price Interventions da Chapter 1 PORTUGAL AND ITS ECONOMY The Republic of Portugal is composed of a mainland on the western seaboard of the Iberian peninsula and the archipelagoes of Madeira and the Azores. In addition, the self-governing territory of Macau, near Hong Kong, is under Portuguese authority. Madeira lies 1,000 kilometers to the southwest, and the Azores 1,600 kilometers to the west of the mainland. They each have the status of autonomous regions under the present Constitution. Continental Portugal covers an area of 92,000 square kilometers. The land slopes gently from mountain ranges in the east and north to coastal plains in the west and south. Several rivers cross the country, including the Minho, Douro, and Mondego in the north, the Tagus, Zezere, and Sado in the central region, and the Guadiana running to the south. The Tagus, in effect, splits the country in two as it runs southwest to the Atlantic Ocean at Lisbon. North of the Tagus, the land is often mountainous with well-populated villages. The land south of the Tagus has rolling plains and a sparse population except for the southernmost area of the Algarve. Map 1 shows Portugal's provinces and major cities. The climate varies from the moderately cool northern mountainous regions to the warm plains of the south. The southern half of the country suffers from periodic drought, which has a major impact on agriculture. In general, the climate is Mediterranean, modified by proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. The population of continental Portugal is a little over 9.5 million, with about another 300,000 living on the islands. Table 1 shows the growth of population and its distribution between urban and rural !BRD 2 1 이 O 인·＊1 Table 1. Population wW Labor force. Continental Portugal -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Population (0001S) Labor Force W --------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- Total Urban(a) Rurat Urban as Total Educational Level Arabic land ----------------------- of Total lit- High Grad- per person Total Concent- erate School uate employed in ration M agric-(d) Year 000's M M M (hectares) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- M 0 7,92Z 1.569 5 6,3S3 19-8 3,OOS 43.8 2.3 0.7 3-4 1960 8.293 1,895 10 6.398 22.8 3,126 37.1 3.3 0-8 3-7 1970 8.123 2,178 16 5,945 26.8 2,988 29.0 2.0 0.8 4.6 1981 9.337 2,841 28 6,496 30.4 3.660 20.3 9.0 2.0 4.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (a) Urban is defined as towns with population 2, 10,000. M The concentration of urban population is measured bV the number of cities in which the most concentrated 75% of the urban population lives. W Labor force: 1950 and 1980 - over 10 years old; 1960 and 1970 - over 12 years old- Those in military service have been excluded. (d) Arabic land: MO and 1960, figures"based on S.R.O.A.; following years based on I.-M.E. Active Agricultural Population based on a complete series (1950-1981) from the general population census. SOURCES: I.N.E. - IX, X. XI, mid XI 1, RECENtEAMENTOS GERAIS DA POPtILACAO -DO CONTIMENTE E ILKAS; ANUARIO ESTATISTICO - several years ESTATISTICAS AGRICOLAS - several years locations. The country is predominantly rural, although the proportion of urban dwellers has increased from 20 to 30 percent over the past 30 years. In 1950, five cities--Lisbon, Porto, Braga, Coimbra, and Setubal--accounted for 75 percent of the urban population. By 1981, the same proportion of the urban population was spread among 28 cities. The rural population is essentially stable, with the increase in total population occurring in medium-sized cities between Lisbon and Porto. The population of Portugal increased rapidly after 1970. This increase was due to the return of Portuguese nationals ("retornados") from the former colonies of Angola and Mozambique in 1974 and 1975. The Portuguese population had been declining during the 1960s, but in 1974 the population increased by 2.7 percent and in 1975 by 4.5 percent as an estimated 500,000 people returned from Africa. The labor force numbers reflected this influx, rising from under three million in 1970 to 3.66 million by 1981. Two other factors increased the civilian labor force during this period: the return of almost 200,000 men to civilian life when the armed forces were scaled down, and a drop in emigration as a result of recession in France and other countries. Along with the post-1974 rise in the labor force, educational attainment increased substantially. Whereas in 1970 only 2 percent of the labor force had completed high school, by 1980 that figure had reached 9 percent. The illiteracy rate dropped from 44 percent of the labor force in 1950 to 20 percent in 1981. A favorable location between Europe and Africa, together with easy access to the eastern coasts of North and South America, has given Portugal a role in international commerce disproportionate to its size. The fifteenth and sixteenth century voyages of discovery led to Portuguese - 5 - colonization of parts of Africa, South America, and Asia. Portuguese fleets developed the North Atlantic deep water fishing industry and Portuguese ports became known for ship repair. Besides commerce with its colonies, Portugal developed a flourishing trade with England. The nineteenth century English economist David Ricardo chose the trade in cloth and wine between Portugal and England to illustrate his theory of comparative advantage. Despite its location and history, however, Portugal is considerably less affluent than Europe's other industrial democracies. In terms of per capita income, Portugal ranks with the middle-income countries of Asia and Latin America. In 1982, GNP per capita was about $2,450, compared to $2,210 for Chile, $2,240 for Brazil, and $2,520 for Argentina, and somewhat above those for South Korea ($1,910) and Malaysia ($1,860). Greece ($4,290) is the only other western European country with an income level below $5,000 per capita. Portugal's national income (real GNP) grew steadily between 1950 and 1980. In the 1950s, GNP growth averaged over 5 percent per year and increased in the 1960s to nearly 6.5 percent annually. Even in the troubled 1970s, with a political revolution at home and turbulent economic conditions abroad, growth was an average annual 4.7 percent. Between 1980 and 1985, however, there was no significant increase in real GNP and a consequent decline in per capita income levels. Overall growth since 1960 (4.5 percent) has been comparable to that of Brazil (4.8 percent), Thailand (4.5 percent), and Malaysia (6.6 percent). With the exception of Japan, Portugal grew faster than all of the industrial market economies over this thirty-year period. Table 2 shows the composition of GNP between 1960 and 1983. Notable is the generally high level of investment since 1977, much of it in Table 2 GNP and Its Components; Portugal (1960-1983) (1963 Prices) Year Real GNP Share in GNP (M) million Trade Government esc.(1) Consumption Investinent(3) Savings(2) Imports Exports Deficit Surplus 1960 74,367 77.1 17.6 13.6 23.2 16.9 6.3 2.3 1961 78,250 80.4 17.6 4.4 27.2 15.8 11.4 -1.8 1962 83,417 73.2 17.0 13.3 23.1 18.1 5.0 1.3 1963 88,374 75.1 18.0 14.2 23.9 18.5 5.4 1.6 1964 94,643 73.4 17.2 14.2 29.3 24.6 4.7 1.7 1965 101,679 73.5 17.2 14.8 30.8 25.8 5.0 2.6 1966 105,570 74.0 19.0 . 17.6 30.5 26.2 4.3 2.9 1967 114,116 68.9 20.0 19.7 29.0 26.3 2.7 2.4 1968 122,314 73.9 17.0 14.8 29.6 24.5 5.1 2.9 1969 126,396 72.7 17.3 17.2 28.4 23.9 4.5 4.4 1970 13B,708 68.7 17.5 15.4 30.1 23.3 6.8 4.7 1971 146,784 71.3 18.7 15.8 31.5 24.2 7.3 4.4 1972 158,733 67.0 20.5 18.8 31.3 26.2 5.1 3.4 1973 176,774 67.4 20.2 16.1 32.9 25.6 7.3 3.2 1974 179,613 75.3 19.5 4.6 41.0 25.7 15.3 0.4 1975 170,448 80.8 19.7 4.7 32.2 19.7 12.5 -2.5 1976 180,934 79.2 18.3 4.8 30.7 20.0 10.7 -2.8 1977 190,786 76.2 26.8 9.0 32.8 17.0 15.8 -2.0 1978 195,744 69.4 28.5 11.1 32.0 18.0 14.0 -3.4 1979 207,176 69.0 27.4 10.2 36.7 23.4 13.3 -3.9 1980 214,877 68.5 29.8 8.3 43.0 25.0 18.0 -3.5 1981 213,283 72.3 32.5 5.5 46.1 24.0 22.1 -4.9 1982 216,702 72.8 33.5 7.0 49.2 27.9 21.3 -5.2 1983 217,430 73.0 31.3 14.3 46.8 33.k 13.5 -3.5 (1) After 1974 the figures have been deflated using the implicit price index of the GNP. (2) Based on the following identity: SAVINGS = INVESTMENT + (Current Balance of Public Accounts) - (Balance on the Current Trade Account) (See Table 5 and 6 for information on the balances referred to in the above mentioned formula). (3) figures in this coluin refer to the Gross Domestic Fixed Capital formation. SOURCES: I.N.E., CONTAS NACIONAIS - GNP up to 1975 inclusive; Investments,Imports and Exports,to 1981. RELATORIOS DO BANCO DE PORTUGAL - for the remaining figures. - 7 - the public sector, as well as the importance of the trade sector. Nearly one-half of national income was spent on imports in 1982. There has been a chronic imbalance between imports and exports, and the current account balance has been in deficit for the past ten years. Domestic private consumption (around 73 percent of GNP in recent years) and taxes have left little for saving. In 1982, only 7 percent of GNP was saved by households. The remainder of investment came from running deficits in the government's current account and in external trade. Imports have been financed in large part by spending the considerable reserves of gold and foreign currencies inherited from the Salazar regime in 1974 and sizable borrowing from the IMF and other agencies. Agriculture's role in the Portuguese economy is ambiguous. Although the sector employs nearly 20 percent of the labor force, it has generally been regarded as a backward sector. The share of agriculture in GNP dropped from over 30 percent in 1950 to less than 10 percent at present. In the 1960s, when the manufacturing sector was growing almost 9 percent per year, agriculture grew only 1 to 3 percent annually. Over the next decade, when manufacturing growth dropped to around 5 percent per year, output from agriculture declined 1 percent a year. One result of slow agricultural growth which is often taken to have had a negative influence on the economy as a whole has been an increase in imports of agricultural products. However, imports of non- agricultural goods also increased between 1950 and 1980, and the proportion of total imports that are agricultural in nature dropped from nearly 40 percent in 1950 to under 20 percent in 1980 (see Table 3). Rapid income growth and slow agricultural growth have caused exports of agricultural products to expand slowly, and in some cases to Tail 3 Agriculture as a Component of the t"et EconomW, Portugal, 1960-1961 Share of Agricultural Agricultural Agriculture (b) Imports (c) Exports (c) GAP (a) in GNP in Share in Share in Share in ......... ....... Total Level Total Level Total Agricultural Year Nominal Real Real Employment Nominal Imports Nominal Exports output Million escudos (M) (%) mill. esc (M) Milt. esc (%) (%) 1960 15,802 15,919 21.4 41.5 4.396 28.1 4,031 43.0 25.5 1961 15,813 15,998 5,132 27.3 3,982 41.8 25.2 1962 16,710 17,024 4,402 25.5 4,375 41.1 26.2 1963 17,268 17,268 5,328 28.1 4,797 40.0 27.8 1964 17,292 16,657 6,140 27.5 5,569 37.4 32.2 1965 20,037 17,927 7,085 27.5 6,026 35.9 30.1 1966 20,242 16,036 7,460 25.6 6,370 35.3 31.5 1967 22,656 17,717 7,605 26.1 6,887 34.4 30.4 1968 23,525 18,380 8,124 27.1 7,457 35.3 31.7 1969 24,850 17,869 8,708 24.6 7,997 33.8 32.2 1970 27,476 18,489 13.3 30.0 9,331 20.9 9,037 33.2 32.9 I 1971 28,512 17,495 10,570 20.7 9,403 31.7 33.0 0 1972 31,645 17,455 13,617 22.9 11,148 31.8 35.2 1 1973 39,079 18,305 17,981. 24.6 14,004 31.3 35.8 1974 45,649 18,476 28,079 24.8 15,801 27.5 34.6 1975 50,892 17,420 26,321 27.0 12,490 25.3 24.5 1976 58,576 17,159 31,917 25.0 14,977 27.4 25.6 1977 67,572 15,975 47,987 26.3 18,909 25.0 28.0 1978 85,225 17,280 49,845 21.7 23,805 22.4 27.9 1979 105,368 21,340 73,817 23.1 38,905 22.3 36.1 1980 115,757 18,197 9.9 92,301 19.8 40,237 20.8 41.7 1981 110,989 18.2 123,936 20.7 52,859 20.7 47.6 (a) Gross Agricultural Product (b) Gross Agricultural Product/GNP (c) Agricultural inport and export figures have been obtained from ESTATISTICAS AGRICOLAS; Total imports and exports have been obtained from ESTATISTICAS DO COMERCIO EXTERNO IN AIUARIOS ESTATISTICOS. (d) Agricultural Exports/Gross Agricultural Product SOURCE: 1.N.E.: ESTATISTICAS AGRICOLAS, ANUARIOS ESTATISTICOS; BANCO DE PORTUGAL: RELATORIOS -9- decrease. Agricultural exports as a share of total exports are only about 20 percent, while thirty years ago their share was about 50 percent. But while agricultural exports have shrunk as a proportion of total exports, they have risen as a share of total agricultural output. Hence, Portuguese agriculture has become more export-oriented, even though Portugal as a country has come to rely less on farm exports. From 1950 to 1970 the cost of agricultural imports roughly balanced the value of agricultural exports. In the 1980s, however, the costs of imports rose to over twice the amount obtained through exports. The balance between food and nonfood production in Portugal has also changed, though the trends are obscured somewhat by year-to-year fluctuations. Cereal output has been erratic but generally declining, with the average of the last five years being 30 percent below that of the previous five years. Other field crops, such as potatoes and vegetables, have also been declining in recent years. But output of meat, milk, and other livestock products has grown sharply, as has output of tomatoes for concentrate and other horticultural products. Output of the traditional nonfood products, such as flax, cork, and wool, has also declined sharply over the period, although resin production has increased due to large investments in forestry. In short, Portuguese agriculture has not been uniformly stagnant, and production of livestock and intensive field crops has flourished. It has been the traditional products, such as cereals, olive oil, wine, cork, and wool that have experienced the most significant reductions. The domestic output of sunflower has increased, and some growth in pork and beef production has occurred. Rice is the only cereal whose production has remained stable. Among export crops, tomatoes for processing expanded rapidly in the 1960s, while other fruits experienced - 10 - measurable growth. Portugal's output of chestnuts expanded through 1966 but has retreated since that time. Among nontraded goods, cows' milk has been the main growth sector, taking over from sheep and goat milk. The general picture of stagnant agricultural production is confirmed by the total and per capita food production and consumption indices in Table 4. Per capita food production fell 4 percent between 1960 and 1980, while per capita consumption went up 87 percent. The issue of the role of agriculture within the Portuguese economy has been both important and controversial over the past thirty years. Clearly, Portugal has experienced growth without a prospering agricultural sector. Although agricultural imports have been growing rapidly, it can hardly be argued that their importance to Portugal's trade position has increased. Imports of food and feed are absorbed rapidly during periods of growth, and the domestic livestock sector has been expanding. But large sectors of farming appear to be dying off. The question is whether this has been a deliberate act of policy, a circumstance of nature, an unfortunate side effect of social and political change, or an inevitable adjustment in resource use. Portugal's Agricultural Regions Portugal has three agricultural zones: a southern, a northern, and a central zone in the Tagus River valley. South of the Tagus, the wide rolling plains of the region known as the Alentejo have a Mediterranean climate characterized by irregular winter rains (350-500 mm) and summer drought. Temperatures vary from about 90C in the winter to 210C during the summer. Soil quality varies widely. Deep - 11~ - Table 4 indices of Food Procucz;on anc Consumation, PortugaL, 1960-1984 1960=100 AgricuLtural Production Food Consumption Year TotaL Per Capita Total Per Capita 1960 - 100 100 100 100 1961 102 109 1962 114 112 1963 118 118 1964 116 119 1965 125 123 1966 110 126 1967 124 131 1968 122 139 1969 122 147 1970 134 134 153 158 1971 122 155 1972 120 164 1973 125 178 1974 123 189 1975 124 193 1976 114 196 1977 104 193 1978 106 190 1979 113 200 1980 105 96 201 187 1981 91 1982 110 1983 97 1984 103 SOURCES: FAO PRCOUCTION YEARBOOK DCP "Evolucao das Estrutures de Consumo*1958*1975" in Revista de Planeamento, Vol. I, No. 1, JuLy 1978, for agricuLturaL food consumption up to 1975. Pinto, A. Sevinate et at., "A Economia do Sector Agricola, Anatise da Evolucao 76-80; Instituto de Pesquisa Social Damiao de Gois, 1982, for agriculturat food consumption. 1976-1980. (Indices not avaiLabLe since 1980). - 12 - rich loams constitute about 2 percent of the South's 2.5 million hectares of farmland. The Alentejo produces most of the country's grains (wheat, oats, and barley), much of the olive oil, and nearly all of the cork, an important export product. The stubbles and pastures of the region support sheep and cattle. In general the farms are large, with nearly 90 percent of farmland in farms over 20 hectares. Farms with 500 hectares or more account for most of the Alentejo's farmland. Only 3 percent of southern Portugal's farmland has access to irrigation. Farmers produce seasonal fruits and tomatoes on this irrigated land. Substantial amounts of rice are also grown along river valleys in the South. On the widespread drylands of the Alentejo, farmers vary their crops. Good soil is used in a three-year rotation that begins with wheat, followed by malt barley, followed by a fallow year during which a catch crop of sunflowers or chickpeas is produced. On poorer soils the fallow periods are longer, oats are substituted for barley, and more land is used for pasture. Most of the poorer cropland has scattered stands of olive and cork oak trees. Although harvested only every nine years, cork trees are an important source of income. Generally speaking, southern agriculture is highly mechanized and technologically modern. The narrow strip of rocky land along the southern coast, the Algarve, has a micro-climate that differs from that of the Alentejo. Much of the land is of poor quality, and many farmers in the Algarve have low incomes. In recent years, however, greenhouse fruit and vegetable production and open-air citrus production have become widespread, and the Algarve now supplies not only a large tourist population but also sends - 13 - seasonal fruits and vegetables to the rest of the country and abroad. This agriculture is intensive and requires large private and public investment. Along the Tagus itself is an especially fertile valley. Referred to here as the central zone of Portugal, the Tagus valley has about 247,000 hectares of land, of which 28 percent is irrigated. The zone's farmers produce corn, rice, wheat, wine grapes, melons and tomatoes. Farm size and land tenure relationships in the valley are diverse, but the agricultural technologies used in the Tagus valley are among the most advanced used in Portugal. Annual and long-term land rental is common. Yields of cereals and vegetables in the Tagus are comparable to yields in other regions of Europe. Corn is often grown in rotation with melons or tomatoes, and sophisticated irrigation systems are used. The corn is sold to the government as grain or to livestock producers as silage. Rice is produced on farms of about 30 hectares using advanced technology. Tomatoes are cultivated for the local concentrate industry, commonly on plots of less than five hectares by annual renters called "seareiros." North of the Tagus the topography becomes mountainous. The population density is greater, and the farms are smaller--an average of about four hectares. Climatic conditions are more favorable for agriculture in the North than in the South. Annual rainfall averages 800 to 1,600 mm from the northeast to the northwest, and precipitation is more evenly distributed throughout the year. Soils tend to be highly acidic. Agriculture is practiced on valley floors and terraced hillsides, while sheep, goats, and cattle graze on the high pastures. An organized milkshed exists in the northwest, and milk, along with wine, potatoes, corn and temperate tree crops are the principal products. The northeast, with - 14 - poorer soils and less accessibility, produces cereals, potatoes, fruit crops, and olive oil. Crop diversification is the major production strategy of northern farms, and, as a general rule, the smaller the farm the more oriented it is toward subsistence production. The larger farms tend to specialize in commercial crops. Northern farms produce nearly 90 percent of Portugal's corn, 85 percent of its potatoes, and 70 percent of its milk. Technology levels vary widely within the region. Most of the traditional farms use few inputs and are highly labor-intensive, but there are also farms--particularly dairy farms--that are fully mechanized. Most farms rely primarily on family labor, although rural women provide an important source of day labor. Emigration has drawn off large numbers of male day laborers. Many farmers also exchange labor at times of peak demand. The Change in Land Ownership Table 5 illustrates the change in the structure of agricultural land ownership in Portugal from 1968 to 1979. Both the number of farms and the amount of cropland decreased during the period, while the amount of forested area increased substantially. (Forestry products--including resin, lumber, and pulp--have grown in significance over the last twenty years.) The irrigated area also declined during the period. Most irrigation is found on farms of less than 10 hectares. Table 5 also indicates that the number of large farms in the Alentejo has diminished, while the number of farms of about 500 hectares has increased. The reasons for this change are explained in subsequent chapters. - 15 - Table 5 Distrioution of Agricuttural Lanc 'y Farm Size, Portugal, 1968 and 1979 Number of Farms AgriculturaL Area Size (HA) 1968 1979 1968 1979 Number % Number % HA % HA % W/O Land 2;420 0.3 4,131 0.5 -0.0 0.0 0.0-0.5 187,640 23.0 132,333 16.9 37,235 0.9 31,575 1.1 0.5-0.9 126,380 15.5 211,922 27.0 75,910 1.9 118,598 4.1 1.0-1.9 164,840 20.2 171,984 21.9 186,612 4.6 . 186,529 6.5 2.0-2.9 94,580 11.6 80,639 10.3 180,389 4.4 148,560 5.1 3.0-3.9 57,640 7.1 46,869 6.0 154,197 3.8 120,086 4.2 4.0-4.9 39,040 4.8 29,658 3.8 132,903 3.2 99,563 3.4 5.0-9.9 77,860 9.5 60,395 7.7 418,505 10.2 312,441 10.8 10.0-19.9 38,580 4.7 26,060 3.3 413,260 10.1 260,248 9.0 20.0-49.9 17,716 2.2 12,068 1.5 415,685 10.1 256,573 8.9 50.0-99.9 4,494 0.6 3,587 0.5 243,838 5.9 164,508 5.7 100.0-199.9 2,102 0.3 2,146 0.3 232,339 5.7 190,321 6.6 200.0-499.9 1,497 0.2 1,795 0.2 378,704 9.2 325,432 11.3 500.0-999.9 652 0.1 524 0.1 383,781 9.4 186,984 6.5 >1000.0 488 0.1 433 0.1 850,107 20.7 490,620 17.0 'Total 815,929 100.0 784,544 100.0 4,103,465 100.0 2,892,038 100.0 Forestry Area irrigated Area Size (HA) 1968 1979 1968 1979 HA % HA % HA % HA % W/. Land 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0*0.5 4,017 0.4 1,875 0.1 18,407 2.7 19,505 3.5 0.5-0.9 12,642 1.3 29,651 1.7 34,113 5.0 61,754 10.9 1.0-1.9 37,873 3.8 54,805 3.1 82,101 12.1 81,644 14.5 2.0-2.9 40,776 4.1 46,800 2.6 62,102 9.1 55,324 9.8 3.0*3.9 40,752 4.1 38,528 2.2 50,233 7.4 38,958 6.9 4.0-4.9 33,189 3.4 31,917 1.8 40,643 6.0 30,073 5.3 5.0*9.9 100,377 10.2 101,981 5.7 123,248 18.1 77,675 13.8 10.0-19.9 94,956 9.6 93,836 5.3 73,047 10.7 51,856 9.2 20.0-49.9 74,895 7.6 103,989 5.8 57,916 8.5 40,123 7.1 50.0-99.9 45,186 4.6 84,855 4.8 35,468 5.2 20,008 3.5 100.0-199.9 47,399 4.8 111,886 6.3 19,332 2.8 18,687 3.3 200.0-499.9 90,775 9.2 244,748 13.7 21,150 3.1 20,268 3.6 500.0-999.9 106,307 10.8 167,772 9.4 22,083 3.3 12,533 2.2 >1000.0 257,770 26.1 674,716 37.8 40,406 5.9 36,299 6.4 TotaL 986,914 100.0 1,787,359 100.0 680,247 100.0 564,707 100.0 SOURCE: INE, INCUERITO AS EXPLORACOES AGRICOLAS 00 CONTINENTE 1968 AND RECENSEAMENTO AGRICOLA 00 CONTINENTE 1979 Chapter 2 POLICY INTERVENTION IN PORTUGUESE AGRICULTURE After the overthrow of the monarchy in 1910, Portugal's First Republic was governed by a succession of civilian governments. After 45 such governments, the military took control in 1926 and in 1928 installed a right-wing dictatorship which survived until the Revolution of April 25, 1974. From 1932 to 1968, Portugal was governed by Antonio de Oliveira Salazar, who developed a form of economic organization (the "Estado Novo") designed to avoid social and industrial conflicts. The Estado Novo was intended to assure government control of the economic and political activities of individuals and groups. The corporate state controlled prices, wages, and investment, settled disputes, outlawed strikes, controlled trade, and nationalized the key sectors of the economy. Worker organizations and employer guilds were set up at the local and national levels to administer the system. Virtually every citizen of the country was involved in one corporatist group or another. Corporatism's goal was to develop a mutually protective relationship between the government and a small segment of the business community. Conglomerates in mining, banking, shipbuilding, steel, and petrochemicals were under the control of an oligarchy which relied on the government for protection from foreign competition and internal strife. Smaller firms existed alongside the conglomerates, but found it hard to obtain investment funds and were denied access to technology. Although dualism in agriculture had existed for centuries before the advent of Salazar's Estado Novo, it complemented the system perfectly. Large landowners received the support of the government, while subsistence - 17 - farmers were left to tend their little plots and keep their villages tidy. The 1974 Revolution signified rejection of the maldistribution of benefits by the corporate economy, disillusionment with Portugal's colonial wars in Africa, and a desire for an end to dictatorship. The new constitution which emerged in April 1976 called for the construction of a socialist society. It was not until a center-right government was installed in 1980 that decontrol of the economy was initiated. Government taxation and spending as a proportion of GNP under the Estado Novo was not high, despite the government's control over the economy. The government's share of national income fell from 16.3 percent in 1961 to a low of 12.8 percent in 1973 and then rose to 16.8 percent in 1983 (Table 6). Though this change also reflects a drop in the growth rate in the latter period, it illustrates the difference between the two systems of government. After the 1974 Revolution, economic control was exercised more by direct state action and less by political influence and coercion. The changes wrought by the Revolution show up more clearly in the government's budget balance. With the exception of 1961, when a sudden fall in tax revenues produced an unexpected deficit, the government ran a surplus every year from 1958 to 1974. On occasion, this surplus exceeded 20 percent of the total budget, or nearly 4 percent of GNP. Since 1974, by contrast, the government has run a deficit every year. In 1982 the deficit exceed 2 percent of GNP. Even considering the oil shock of 1973 and the ensuing world recession, this turnaround undoubtedly reflected internal decisions as well. State control of trade under the Estado Novo was continued by the post-1974 governments through a system of fixed prices for consumer commodities and through a system of negotiated prices on many other goods, Table 6 Government Revenues and Expenditure, Portugal, 1960-1983 ... ...................................................................................................... Government Government Budget Budget Surplus Rate of Real Budget Year Revenues Expenditures Surplus as percent of Inflation GNP Share Nominal Real Nominal Real Nominal Real Total Budget GNP Million escudos Million escudos Million escudos (%) (%) (%) Million esc. (%) ............................................................................................. 1960 12,506 12,022 10,847 10,427 1,659 1,595 15.3 2.1 2.7 74,367 14.0 1961 12,122 11,432 13,489 12,721 (1,367) (1,289) -10.1 *1.6 1.9 78,250 16.3- 1962 15,779 14,494 14,687 13,491 1,092 1,003 7.4 1.2 2.6 83,417 16.2 1963 16,845 15,194 15,445 13,931 1,400 1,263 9.1 1.4 1.8 88,374 15.8 1964 18,483 16,088 16,808 14,630 1,675 1,458 10.0 1.5 3.5 94,643 15.5 1965 21,825 18,351 19,004 15,979 2,821 2,372 14.8 2.3 3.4 101,679 15.7 1966 24,385 19,417 20,932 16,668 3,453 2,750 16.5 2.6 5.3 105,570 15.8 1967 27,567 20,788 24,367 18,375 3,200 2,413 13.1 2.1 5.3 114,116 16.1 1968 31,305 22,190 27,100 19,209 4,205 2,981 15.5 2.4 6.0 122,314 15.7 1969 35,844 23,121 28,973 18,689 6,871 4,432 23.7 3.5 9.0 126,396 14.8 1970 43,086 26,013 34,616 20,899 8,470 5,114 24.5 3.7 6.4 138,708 15.1 1971 46,599 24,786 37,935 20,178 8,664 4,608 22.8 3.1 11.9 146,784 13.7 1972 53,999 25,678 46,129 21,935 7,870 3,742 17.1 2.4 10.6 158,733 13.8 1973 63,784 26,357 54,807 22,648 8,977 3,710 16.4 2.1 13.1 176,774 12.8 1974 77,858 24,098 76,654 23,725 1,204 . 373 1.6 0.2 25.1 179,613 13.2 1975 93,166 24,131 102,452 26,536 (9,286) (2,405) -9.1 -1.4 15.2 170,448 15.6 1976 131,412 27,342 144,454 30,055 (13,042) (2,714) -9.0 -1.5 20.0 180,934 16.6 1977 168,000 26,334 180,600 28,309 (12,600) (1,975) *7.0 -1.0 27.4 190,786 14.8 1978 212,200 26,291 238,500 29,549 (26,300) (3,258) -11.0 -1.7 22.0 195;744 15.1 1979 264,300 24,872 302,200 28,438 (37,900) (3,567) -12.5 -1.7 24.2 207,176 13.7 1980 362,600 28,989 404,600 32,347 (42,000) (3,358) -10.4 -1.6 16.6 214,877 15.1 1981 486,400 31,367 556,100 35,861 (69,700) (4,495) -12.5 -2.1 20.0 213,283 16.8 1982 618,000 31,710 708,900 36,374 (90,900) (4,664) -12.8 -2.2 22.4 216,702 16.8 1983 838,500 33,034 914,000 36,009 (75,500) (2,974) -8.3 -1.4 25.5 217,430 16.6 . ......................................................................................................... Note: Revenues and expenditures are current government revenues and expenditures. SOURCES: 1.N.E., COITAS NACIONAIS, up to 1977. BANCO DE PORTUGAL, RELATORIOS, after 1978 inclusive, for revenues and expenditures. I.N.E., for the rate of inflation. - 19 - including such intermediate inputs as wheat flour and mixed feed. Imports were subject to licensing, and importers were required, in effect, to give the Bank of Portugal interest-free loans and to pay the interest on borrowings of foreign exchange from international capital markets. Tariffs, on the other hand, were not particularly restrictive, either before or after the Revolution. Portugal had become a charter member of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) in 1959, and was the poorest of the original seven members. As such, it was granted a special time-table for removing tariffs that discriminated against its partners. It was expected that Portugal's tariffs on industrial goods from other EFTA members would be significantly reduced by the mid-1970s, but the Revolution delayed this change. The new government asked for and was granted a five- year extension of its existing tariffs. Thus, Portugal has more tariff protection than the other major western European countries which, as members of either the EEC or EFTA, are for all practical purposes in a free trade area. Membership in EFTA may have acted to liberalize import policy, but in any case it removed barriers to Portuguese exports to other EFTA countries. Exports of textiles, wood products, wine, and fish expanded rapidly in the 1960s, and goods such as tomato paste were accorded "non- agricultural" status so as to be included under EFTA rules. Membership in EFTA also encouraged private investment from other countries as well as facilitating extensive bilateral assistance from other EFTA governments. When the United Kingdom and Denmark applied for EEC membership in 1968, Portugal sought discussions with the Community to safeguard its export markets. In 1972 Portugal signed an agreement with the EEC which granted the country special access to west European markets but allowed it a degree - 20 - of temporary protection against imports. In 1976 the EEC agreed to renegotiate the agreement, allowing Portugal even easier entry to EEC markets. Portugal's industrial policy in the 1950s and 1960s was intended to stimulate the economy through large-scale public projects, such as roads, subways, bridges, hydroelectric facilities, and irrigation schemes. Capital investment in the private manufacturing sector also burgeoned. As a result, Portuguese emigration to the labor-scarce economies of Latin America and the EEC increased markedly. This emigration brought about a large increase in remittances from abroad, a welcome source of capital transfer encouraged by the government. After 1974, however, private investment dried up, making it necessary for the government to increase public investment. Emigrant remittances also declined as many native Portuguese returned from Africa (where the colonies had gained their independence) and from the European countries suffering from recession. Public spending was then diverted from large capital projects to public welfare. Businesses and farms switched investment away from long-term projects to short-term maintenance. Meanwhile, the banks were nationalized, and their extensive holdings in the private sector passed into public ownership. Portugal's loss of its overseas colonies in the 1970s had both good and bad results. On the one hand, it reduced Portugal's military costs. In some years, the cost to Portugal of combating liberation movements was nearly 40 percent of the national budget. On the other hand, the loss of preferential access to such raw materials as oil, sugar, and coffee came at a time when the prices of those commodities were going sky- high. - 21 - Two economic problems emerged in the early 1970s. First, inflation, which had begun to edge upward in the late 1960s, moved into double figures in 1971. The temptation to pay for the African wars by printing money proved impossible to resist, and by 1974 Portugal's inflation rate reached 25 percent. But rapid growth in national income also made it easier to redistribute income, even though the growth was largely an illusion. The other problem was a deficit in the balance of payments and hence a rundown in reserves of foreign exchange. The Salazar regime had been fiscally conservative, and by 1973 had accumulated holdings estimated at nearly $3 billion. Portugal's national debt, both as a share of GNP and as a proportion of export earnings, was among the lowest in the world. But a significant deficit in the trade balance in 1974, coupled with the reduction in remittances, forced the government to spend its reserves and eventually to increase its overseas indebtedness. Borrowing by parastatals and high domestic spending moved Portugal rapidly up the list of debtor nations. These problems were compounded by decisions about the exchange rate. From 1945 to 1971, the escudo was tied to the dollar (see Table 7). Since inflation was under control in both the United States and Portugal, there was little change over time in the inflation-adjusted exchange rate. Then, when the dollar weakened in the early 1970s, the escudo became stronger, even though inflation in Portugal was increasing relative to inflation in the United States. By 1974 the escudo was 30 percent more valuable in terms of dollars than 10 years before. The escudo was then allowed to crawl against the dollar, and its value fell from 25 escudos to the dollar in 1974 to 50 escudos in 1980. The crawl was not fast enough to bring the real value to its earlier level, and some of Portugal's balance of payments problems were probably linked to its overvalued currency. Table 7 Evolution of the Real Exchange Rate, Portugal, 1960-1985 Exchange Rate Current Portuguese .--..-.-..--....-.....-..-.-....--.....--..-.......--------------.--- Account (Lisbon) U.S. <......Actual .....> <...Equilibrium...> Degree of Wholesale Wholesale Nominal Real Nominal Real Divergence of (Millions Price Index Price Index Real from Year US Dollars) 1963=100 1963x100 (ESC/USS) (ESC/USS) Equilibrium 1960 -13.18 98.0 100.4 28.75 30.02 25.82 27.64 8.6% 1961 -257.90 98.0 100.0 28.75 29.72 27.36 27.88 6.6% 1962 -105.20 99.0 100.3 28.75 29.70 27.13 28.28 5.0% 1963 -108.20 100.0 100.0 28.75 28.75 29.01 28.83 -0.3% 1964 -111.40 101.0 100.2 28.75 28.41 26.13 26.39 7.7% 1965 -125.50 104.0 102.2 28.75 27.87 26.48 26.13 6.7% 1966 -40.30 108.0 105.6 28.75 27.27 26.85 26.01 4.9% 1967 50.40 112.0 1 .8 28.75 26.91 25.55 25.03 7.5% 1968 77.68 117.0 1uts.5 28.75 26.27 28.44 26.27 -0.0% 1969 43.00 121.0 112.7 28.75 26.08 29.69 27.24 -4.2% 1970 39.30 125.0 116.8 28.75 26.31 28.88 26.64 -1.3% 1971 157.90 128.0 120.5 28.32 24.84 28.63 25.33 -1.9% 1972 331.80 135.0 126.0 27.01 23.35 26.93 23.90 -2.3% 1973 346.80 150.0 142.5 24.67 22.11 25.38 22.88 -3.4% 1974 -823.30 193.0 169.4 25.41 21.79 26.16 21.78 0.0% 1975 -816.70 218.0 185.I 25.55 20.60 26.90 20.73 -0.6% 1976 -1243.80 260.0 193.7 30.23 21.37 32.38 21.58 -1.0% 1977 -1498.10 335.0 205.5 38.28 22.52 44,60 23.85 -5.6% 1978 -791.40 440.0 221.5 43.94 22.86 49.71 24.25 -5.7% 1979 -48.70 571.0 249.3 48.92 23.05 46.95 22.45 2.6% 1980 -1254.50 608.0 284.4 50.06 23.02 55.46 24.18 -4.8% 1981 -2794.30 739.0 310.5 61.55 25.94 68.01 26.76 -3.1% 1982 -3137.00 880.0 316.7 79.47 28.05 91.54 29.49 -4.9% 1983 -1536.20 1100.0 320.7 110.78 31.62 126.74 33.68 -6.1% 1984 -502.64 1441.6 331.0 146.39 33.61 162.32 35.51 -5.3% 1985 466.76 1709.0 340.9 170.40 33.99 179.38 35.26 -3.6% SOURCE: I.N.E., Anuarios Estatisticos -- for the Balance of the Current Account up to 1979 inclusive, and for the wholesale price index; Banco de Portugal, Relatorios -- for the Balance on the Current Account after 1980 inclusive and for the nominal exchange rate. For calculation of equitibrium exchange rate, see Annex A. - 23 - Government Intervention in Agriculture During the 42 years of the corporate state, the government instituted a range of policies designed to keep food prices low. Up until the 1974 Revolution, agricultural policy was tilted toward wealthy and powerful landowners in the Tagus Valley and the South. Northern farmers were largely ignored, since Salazar held the view that agricultural development represented a threat to the stability of his regime. Agricultural policies in the South included guaranteed prices for producers, fixed prices for processors and millers, and total control over marketing through state marketing boards in cereals, oilseeds, livestock products, fruits, and wine. Only these boards were allowed to import or export, and in the case of cereals and oilseeds they were monopsony buyers of domestic production. Although inflation remained low in the 1960s, the rise in consumer income resulted in a rapid increase in the demand for food, particularly meat, and upward pressure on consumer food prices. Modern systems for raising cattle, hogs, and poultry in close quarters, based upon intensive use of imported feeds, became much more common. Domestic meat and poultry producers received prices above world levels, while feed costs were subsidized. A rapid increase in production during the second half of the 1960s resulted in higher budget costs and continued reliance on grain imports. From 1963 to 1973, domestic production of mixed feed rose from about 100,000 tons to 1.5 million tons, while imports of corn and sorghum rose from 71,000 to over a million tons. An increasing disparity between consumer demand for food and the ability of Portuguese farmers to produce it led to unprecedented levels of food imports. The post-Revolution government then adopted a system of price controls intended to stimulate domestic production while keeping food - 24 - cheap. The price controls included several mechanisms, from rigidly fixed prices for certain critical goods to negotiated prices on others. The various marketing boards held regulatory stocks and intervened in the market when prices became too high or too low. The prices of virtually all food items except fruits and vegetables were affected. But agricultural pricing policies that benefited both producers and consumers at the expense of the Treasury became untenable after 1980. Portugal simply could not afford to keep all its economic actors happy, and its decision to join the European Economic Community meant that sooner or later its agricultural policy structure would have to be abandoned. During the first five years of the 1980s, Portugal eliminated subsidies for agricultural inputs such as fertilizer and mixed feeds, reduced its expensive milk subsidies, and liberalized its grain import monopoly to allow foreign competitors. On the other hand, high producer prices for cereal and milk have been maintained, and the marketing boards for milk and livestock products remain intact. The net effect has been to increase food prices and to exert pressure upon meat producers, many of whom have reverted to raising pasture-fed beef. Meanwhile, the mixed feed industry has lost much of its earlier dynamism. In overall terms, agricultural policy in Portugal since 1950 has not succeeded in stimulating the production necessary to meet rising consumer expectations. Low prices until 1974 prevented agriculture from making the investment that would allow Portuguese farmers to keep abreast of their European colleagues. Attempts to correct the past through higher prices to producers were begun in 1974, but investment in agriculture has remained small relative to agriculture's contribution to the economy. - 25 - The History of Portugal's Pricing Policies Salazar's corporate state controlled agriculture through several channels. Many producer and consumer prices were fixed by decree, and corporate marketing organizations were established in 1936 to coordinate the interests of the state with those of the private sector. By 1980, these organizations had evolved into state monopolies that controlled the supply of agricultural raw materials to processing industries, imported and exported agricultural products, intervened in markets by buying and selling commodities, and maintained national stocks of critical products. After 1974, the new government of Portugal attempted to stimulate domestic production of critical commodities--primarily cereals and animal products--without raising consumer prices. Interventions included increases in the real prices paid to producers of such domestic products as corn, wheat, milk, and sunflower seeds. In the crop year 1978-79, wheat prices to farmers were increased 47 percent while inflation went up 30 percent. Millers, mixed feed producers, and milk processors also received subsidies to assure that consumers did not bear the brunt of high prices for producers. During the period 1974-80, for example, liquid milk was sold in Lisbon at a price sometimes lower than that received by the producer. Policies on agricultural inputs also favored farmers. Prior to the Revolution, fertilizer production was dominated by the powerful industrial group CUF, which lobbied aggressively for producer subsidies (Casaca, 1987). As a consequence, fertilizer prices were subsidized during the 1960s. After 1974, however, the government nationalized its petrochemical industry and the parastatal Quimigal became the country's - 26 - major fertilizer producer (along with a much smaller semi-public firm, SAPEC). From 1974 to 1983, all fertilizers were subsidized at about one- half their cost of production (Procalfer, 1981). Similarly, the mixed feed industry received domestic and imported raw materials at subsidized prices and negotiated its product prices and marketing margins with the government. Other subsidized inputs included diesel fuel, limestone, and agricultural credit (provided at negative real interest rates). The object in subsidizing these inputs was to stimulate changes in agricultural technology, thus raising domestic productivity. After 1980, given the prospect of entry into the Common Market, Portugal began to take a more realistic look at agricultural policy. Support for domestic farm producers remained strong, in part because support for them was a lesser drain on the budget than support for consumers. The removal of subsidies for mixed feed and fertilizers caused dramatic increases in the prices of these farm inputs, but those were followed by even larger increases in prices received by producers of milk and cereals. Meanwhile, government protection of the consumer was reduced. Under an explicit austerity program intended to reduce deficit spending and constrict buying power in order to reduce inflation, the government passed on increases in the producer costs of mixed feeds and grains to consumers. The government also took steps to reduce the power of marketing organizations, particularly those in cereals (EPAC), livestock (JNPP), and oil-seeds (IAPO), by allowing competition. Since the beginning of 1986, pricing policies have been subject to the transition arrangements negotiated under accession to the EEC, after which Portugal will have only indirect control over price policy for its farmers. Now that Portugal has - 27 - become a member of the EEC, the prices of several major Portuguese commodities will fall substantially during the ten-year transition period. Interest Groups and Price Intervention Agricultural policies in Portugal have tended to favor the largeholder. Fertilizer and limestone subsidies during the period 1974-83, for example, stimulated increased use of these inputs by those with access to information on how best to use them. Credit subsidies in Portugal, as elsewhere in the world, have tended to benefit large farmers familiar with the banking system more than they benefit smallholders. Policies intended to raise producer output prices benefit all producers, of course, but the relative share for large producers is naturally larger. In 1974, however, a new policy on milk was adopted that brought direct benefits to smaller producers in the North. The major obstacles to change among traditional northern farms were low prices and unstable markets. To overcome these problems, farmers were given a guaranteed price, and a network of mechanized milking parlors was set up. As a result, milk production in the North doubled between 1977 and 1980. Recent studies indicate that the new system has resulted in increases in household income on even the smallest farms (Pearson et al., 1987). Other incentives aimed at increasing farm production and income have benefited the agricultural sector. One example involves tomatoes for concentrate. When EEC regulations reduced the competitiveness of Portuguese tomato concentrate in European markets, the government instituted an export subsidy for tomato processors. This policy has benefited many seareiros who previously raised grain on rented land in the South. Many seareiros have turned to tomato and vegetable production. - 28 - These farmers employ large amounts of family labor and enjoy a significant income-earning potential. Government subsidies to help pay the costs of mixed feeds have had a good effect on farmers who produce meat in poultry barns, feedlots, and hog sheds, using high technology capital-intensive methods. During the 1970s these subsidies resulted in rapid expansion of both the meat- producing and mixed feed industries. Consumers, meanwhile, benefited from cheaper prices for chicken and pork. After the elimination of feed subsidies in 1983, consumer prices began to rise, and both the meat production and the mixed feed industries have contracted. While price intervention has tended to help all consumers, urban workers have been helped the most because they spend a larger portion of their wages on food than rural consumers do. Price intervention has also enabled urban consumers to buy animal protein that previously was very expensive. Types of Intervention Five types of policy intervention in Portuguese agriculture can be identified. These include controls on the prices received by domestic producers and paid by consumers, the prices of agricultural imports and exports, and the prices of agricultural inputs; market monopolies; commodity-specific programs that involve several kinds of intervention; control (including land reform) over domestic production factors; and public investment in agriculture. - 29 - Price Intervention Portugal has relied heavily on government purchases of agricultural products from farmers at fixed prices, along with regulation of the prices paid by processors and consumers. Control of international trade in farm goods by parastatal agencies is an integral part of this process. At times the government has also resorted to buying low-quality produce during periods of excess supply to stabilize prices. The process of determining and fixing all agricultural prices requires a large government bureaucracy. In nearly every case the objective has been to subsidize both producers and consumers, although unforeseen external events have sometimes transformed the effects of these policies from subsidies to taxes. Producer prices have been fixed in Portugal for certain commodities since the beginning of the century. Under Salazar's corporatist structure, each economic interest group was represented by a formal body which was linked to upper echelons of government. In agriculture the landowners were organized into producer associations (gremios) at the local level and commodity groups at the national level (e.g., the National Federation of Wheat Producers, or FNPT). Landless workers and smallholders were organized into worker associations (Casas do Povo). The leaders of these associations were either appointed by the government or needed government approval. The Salazarists also created a marketing organization for each commodity group. These were called "organizations of economic coordination" (OCE), and they controlled all marketing activities, including exportation and importation. These organizations became parastatal marketing institutions after 1974. - 30 - Producer prices were set (and continue to be set) by the Inter- Ministerial Council dominated by the Finance Minister. The Agriculture Ministry predicts the costs of production with help from the National Association of Farmers (CAP). During the Salazar years the goods whose prices were normally fixed by the government included cereals, cork, oilseeds, and olive oil, reflecting the political weight of the large landowners of the Alentejo. Later, the government also began to fix the price of raw milk. The prices of wine, meat, fruits, and vegetables were influenced indirectly through government marketing policies. The establishment of prices for cereals has traditionally been a major policy decision, given the influence of the Alentejo. Until the late 1960s, these decisions were based on the fact that cereal growers used large number of workers who received low wages. As labor became scarcer in the 1970s, however, cereal producers faced larger labor costs and increasing economic pressures. Cereal prices increased rapidly after the Revolution as the government attempted to stimulate the agricultural economy of the South. The pricing system for cereals prior to 1974 was accompanied by a monopoly marketing structure. The FNPT, supported by the fees paid by farmers to the gremios, constructed and maintained an infrastructure of silos. The actual marketing of wheat was done by the National Cereals Institute. In this way, the corporatist structure allowed large farmers to control agricultural policy. After the Revolution the storage and marketing functions were assigned to the Public Cereals Supply Company, a parastatal that has continued to perform these functions. Import subsidies gained greater importance during -the 1970s, particularly after the Revolution. As imports of cereal and oilseed - 31 - commodities increased rapidly because of rising consumer demand, the government began selling cereals and oilseeds to flour millers and animal feed producers at fixed prices well below the domestic producer price, and usually below the world price, in order to keep consumer prices down. In exchange for these lower input prices, feed and flour producers had to agree to sell their products at prices set by the government. Furthermore, flour millers were required to use a fixed percentage of lower quality domestic wheat. Although the object of this subsidy system was to keep consumer prices down, the chief effects were to provide the incentive for a rapid expansion of the feed grain industry and to encourage a shift to capital- intensive technologies for the production of poultry, pork, and beef. The subsidy was paid to processors through the National Supply Fund (Fundo de Abastecimento), which became a major drain on the government budget until its elimination in 1986. Subsidies to reduce the costs of agricultural inputs have been common in Portugal since the 1960s. The process of change that occurred during the decade prior to the Revolution led to greater use of other modern technologies besides those for meat production, including chemical fertilizers, high-yielding seed varieties, and complex machinery. Purchases of imported farm machinery were highly subsidized until the 1970s, and other input policies include a subsidy for diesel fuel. That subsidy applies not only to farms that own tractors but also to those that lease them. Rented machinery is common in Portugal, particularly in the northern regions. A per liter subsidy is paid to milk farmers who can document machine use. - 32 - The Marketing Infrastructure Portugal's long history of state control over farm marketing and trading has reflected the desire of the government to maintain control over basic economic activities and has restricted the role of small private firms in the economy. But the value of state intervention is under review. Portugal's goal is to find a mechanism that will produce greater efficiency through more dispersed decision-making without undue disruption of organized marketing functions. Portugal's accession to the EEC means that such developments must now be carried out under a fairly rigid schedule. The six state institutions involved in agricultural marketing can be divided into two groups. The first group contains the Empresa Publica de Abastecimento de Cereais (EPAC), the Instituto do Azeite e Produtos Oleaginosos (IAPO), and the Administracao-Geral do Acucar e do Alcool (AGAA), which were set up after the Revolution to manage international trade in cereals, oilseeds, and sugar and alcohol. The second group contains marketing boards--the Junta Nacional de Vinhos (JNV), the Junta Nacional de Produtos Pecuarias (JNPP), and the Junta Nacional de Frutas (JNF). These were established in the prewar period to supervise and regulate domestic markets. Cooperatives have played a significant role in the marketing of some agricultural products. Cooperatives in milk marketing and processing dominate the dairy industry, while those in wine, fruits, and vegetables are becoming more important. Since cooperatives operate in the middle ground between state enterprises and private firms, the degree of competition they must face from private firms is a continuing issue. Private firms enjoy great freedom in agricultural marketing, but their close relationship with the government (which in many cases has established - 33 - marketing margins and prices) is undergoing change. The combination of liberalization of commercial practice and greater responsibilities in policy implementation will profoundly change the nature of the food industry in Portugal. Factor Policies in Agriculture The government has also traditionally intervened in domestic markets for land, labor, and capital. These interventions range from subsidized credit, land rental laws, and labor taxes to land reform. Under the socialist government of Mario Soares, a controversial land reform law was passed in 1976. Political and economic power in Portugal traditionally had been concentrated among the large landowners of the South, many of whom also had strong ties to urban commercial interests. The mere intimation of land reform during the Salazar era was interpreted as a major threat to Portuguese society, and the first proposal for redistributing large landholdings in the South led to the rapid removal of Dr. Mota Campos, then Secretary of State for Agriculture. Only the radical reshuffling of power that accompanied the 1974 Revolution made land reform even thinkable. The 1976 land reform decree was highly controversial from the very beginning. The government did not apply the law uniformly across the country. Instead, it designated a land reform zone that included most of the Alentejo and Ribatejo regions--that is, the regions with the largest and most powerful landowners. Within this zone, landless farmers and agriculture workers had occupied many of the farms following the Revolution, thus creating a chaotic legal situation. The battle between the Communist and Socialist Parties over control of the country was -34 - reflected in the debate over how to shape the future of agriculture in the Alentejo. The more radical voices demanded collective ownership of all land, while moderates argued for smaller, privately owned family farms. The question was never decided conclusively. If farms had already been occupied by the landless, they were formally instituted as collectives. Private owners saw their landholdings greatly reduced in size as the state became the country's largest landowner. All irrigated land was nationalized, and many major landholdings were expropriated. In all, some three million hectares initially changed hands. Later, however, much land was returned to its original owners under the "reserve" clauses of the land reform act. Collectives and production cooperatives now hold about 500,000 hectares of land, while the state controls another 500,000 hectares. The rest of the land has been divided among new owners or returned as reserves. Efforts are now underway to institutionalize land reform by clarifying the legal status of individual properties. Land reform was accompanied by a revamping of land tenure laws to protect renters and sharecroppers. The current laws apply to the entire country and not only to the South. Maximum rental values are fixed, based upon Ministry of Agriculture estimates of land value. Thus, quality criteria are applied to land holdings, and each category of land has a specified value. Land tenure agreements specify periods of occupancy and strictly limit increases in rent. The major effect of these laws has been to discourage land rental, however, since owners fear that rental contracts will become permanent. In the North, the laws have restricted the ability of the rental market to break serious land size constraints. - 35 - Although Portuguese law requires employers to contribute a sum equivalent to 21 percent of each worker's salary to various social security programs, and each worker is entitled to a month of paid vacation and a bonus, these requirements do not affect agriculture as much as industry for the simple reason that they are often ignored in practice. As a general rule, the more modern agricultural sectors are more able than the traditional sectors to meet these requirements. Prior to 1980, policies on subsidized agricultural credit were normally associated with specific types of programs, such as a horticulture development program in the 1960s. In the late 1970s, however, Portugal created a National Agriculture Finance Institute with the assistance of the World Bank. Agricultural credit is allocated between short-term production credit and long-term investment credit. Investment credit is subsidized by being offered at negative real interest rates. On short-term credit, on the other hand, interest is subtracted from the loan amount when the money is disbursed. The transaction costs of the credit program are very high. Those who apply for credit must fill out extensive applications, and evaluation and approval by the bureaucracy often take a long time. Because of these high transaction costs, many Portuguese farmers are reluctant to apply for subsidized loans. Southern farmers have, in general, been much more willing to participate in the program than their northern counterparts. Commodity-Specific Programs The Portuguese government has sometimes established commodity- specific programs designed to achieve certain production goals. In the 1930s, for example, bonus payments were made to farmers who brought new land under wheat cultivation. There have also been commodity programs in - 36 - horticulture, forestry, and meat production, but perhaps the most ambitious involved dairy farming in northwest Portugal. Price incentives for milk production in the northwest were first introduced in the late 1960s, but following the Revolution an integrated development strategy was put in place. The northwest was declared the national milkshed, covered by a comprehensive policy that involves government investment in a wide range of dairy-related activities, from the establishment of collective milking parlors to ensuring the raising of pure-bred calves to maintain herd quality. Public Investments in Agriculture The government's capital inputs for agriculture include paying for electric lines, roads, irrigation schemes, and training and extension services. These investments facilitate private investment and influence income distribution. Public investments in agriculture are carried out by the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Public Works, the Ministry of Energy, local authorities, and other agencies of government. Efforts to coordinate these various activities are made by Regional Coordinating Commissions (CCRs). There is no clear-cut allocation of investment between the central ministries and local authorities, although major investments--large dams, main roads, and the electric grid--are usually the responsibility of national agencies, while local authorities build and maintain secondary roads, low-voltage electric lines, and other local extensions of national networks. The Ministry of Agriculture provides extension and training services as well as agricultural components of water management systems, such as irrigation ditches. - 37 - In part because of the rapid rise in government outlays for price supports and input subsidies, the allocation of public funds for long-term agricultural investment has lagged in recent years. The development budget (PIDDAC) showed no overall growth in long-term agricultural investment over the period 1980 to 1983, the last period for which data are available. Agricultural spending (in current escudos) increased when the allocation for the fisheries sector was cut back in 1981, but lost ground (to both fisheries and inflation) in 1983. The dominance of spending on large public works projects, such as irrigation systems, over spending on agriculture research and marketing is an issue that will become more critical in light of EEC accession. The investment budget of state enterprises (PISEE) has shown a tendency to rise over the past four years, but mainly as a result of EPAC investment, which overshadows other categories of agricultural sector spending by public enterprises. After Portugal achieves full membership in the EEC, public investment in agriculture will become one of the few policy mechanisms at the disposal of the government. Consequently, government policymakers want to find ways in which funds from either the national budget or the EEC can be used to stimulate agricultural development. Projects under consideration include the expansion of irrigation in both the South and the North, land consolidation in the North, and region-specific integrated rural development plans. The EEC will make approximately 700 million ECU available over a ten-year transition period for such investments. - 38 - Summary: Changes in Policy Objectives over Time Despite sharp institutional changes following the 1974 Revolution, many agricultural policy interventions at both the producer and consumer levels have remained unchanged. Intervention in output and input prices, in fact, has intensified since 1974. The marketing institutions created under the corporatist state, converted to state enterprises, have retained their monopolist functions. But in the case of pricing policies, a shift in motivation is recognizable. Chapter 3 MEASURES OF POLICY INTERVENTION Portugal's policies have influenced the behavior of relative agricultural prices and the relative prices of agricultural and non- agricultural goods. This chapter deals with the relative prices of three agricultural commodities in each of the three regions as influenced by direct intervention. The effects of indirect price policies, such as the impact of modifications in the exchange rate and changes in the prices of nonagricultural products, are also addressed. The Nine Commodities Each of the commodities chosen for discussion here is of importance to a particular region. Since wheat, for example, is the primary crop of the Alentejo, its price has a significant impact on farm incomes in the South and influences farming patterns. Since the price of wheat also affects consumer spending, Portugal still controls the price at which millers can buy-domestic or imported wheat. A major issue has been the appropriateness of price incentives for wheat production on poor soils in southern Portugal. Ministry of Agriculture officials argue that current pricing mechanisms send incorrect signals to farmers, who are encouraged to produce wheat on land that, from an ecological or agronomic perspective, should be kept in pasture. These pastures could then be used to raise cows and sheep. Along with wheat, the southern commodities discussed here are beef and sheepmeat. The three Tagus Valley crops discussed here are tomatoes, rice, and corn. Most of the tomatoes raised in the central Tagus are processed - 40 - into tomato paste that is exported. Tomato prices thus determine whether the irrigated land of the valley is used for tomatoes or for the alternative high-value crops of rice and corn. Tomatoes are raised in the Tagus Valley chiefly by seareiros, and the payment of subsidies on tomato exports has shored up seareiro incomes without having a negative effect on consumers. The government has never intervened directly in the price of rice grown in the valley, but corn is a strongly supported commodity. Portugal's farming region north of the Tagus is represented here by milk, potatoes, and wines. From the perspective of the individual farm, the government's emphasis on milk production has brought a distinct improvement in rural welfare by assuring dairy farmers a regular return. Since 1974, however, the government has also seen fit to control the retail price of milk. Thus, the subsidies paid to farmers to increase production and thus to keep consumer prices low have been substantial. Potatoes are a subsistence crop in the North, and their price has never been directly subsidized. However, in times of oversupply and unusually low prices, the Junta Nacional das Frutas has intervened to push prices upward. Wine is the third crop considered here because of its importance to the region and because of its potential as an export commodity within the EEC. In the North, cultivated fields are surrounded by vertical grapevine trellises that maximize land resources, and the grapes are processed either at the farm or taken to commercial wineries. The North is a demarcated wine region (Vinho Verde), and a regional commision (Comissao Viticola da Regiao dos Vinhos Verdes) is responsible for both the amount and the quality of wine. Although prices are not fixed, the commission has purchased wine during times of oversupply. While these three products are traditionally grown together on the same farms, they compete for relative proportions of land. - 41 - Trends in Commodity Prices Actual prices of these nine farm commodities, in escudos per kilo, rose slowly through the 1960s, then accelerated during the 1970s. When the commodity prices are deflated by the price index for nonagricultural goods (see Annex A), the trend in real prices can be observed. Producer prices for the nine commodities are shown in Table 8, in 1963 escudos per kilogram. These prices are farmgate prices. The particular price mechanisms are shown in Box A. The prices of the commodities produced in the northern region have been somewhat erratic. The real prices obtained for potatoes have been slightly higher since 1975, reaching a peak in 1976. The real prices of milk remained high until 1979, after which there was some decline. In wine the picture is somewhat different: instability in real prices in the early sixties, followed by a trend toward higher prices from 1965 through 1983. In terms of relative prices, milk and wine have done better than potatoes, whose price fluctuated constantly between 1960 and 1984. Among the commodities typical of the central region, rice experienced high prices in the 1964-76 period, hit a low point in 1977, then rose again. In the case of tomatoes, the high point in price came during the 1974-75 period of government support, but otherwise the real price was not too much different in 1983 than it was twenty years before. The price of corn reached a low point in 1973, then rose until 1977, then fell again until 1982. In terms of relative price, rice was strong in the late sixties, possibly because of new irrigation schemes in the Tagus Valley. Table 8 Deflated Producer and Consumer Prices, Selected Commodities, Portugal (1960-1984) (ESC(1963)/kg) ............................................................................................. .ot*e;**..... .Producer Price Levels................................... ... Consumer Prices..... Potatoes Milk Wine Rice Tomato Corn Wheat Beef Sheep Wheat Milk Corn Year .........................................................................................--- 1960 1.22 2.12 3.00 2.76 0.57 2.38 3.14 21.56 42.55 2.98 2.75 2.38 1961 1.12 1.95 3.41 2.77 0.55 2.11 3.03 20.88 41.69 2.88 2.65 2.11 1962 1.43 2.01 2.59 2.79 0.55 2.18 3.03 20.87 40.33 2.88 2.65 2.18 1963 1.15 2.07 2.22 2.80 0.54 2.15 3.02 22.19 49.65 2.87 2.74 2.15 1964 1.09 2.31 2.20 2.93 0.53 2.10 2.99 24.23 62.38 2.84 3.05 2.10 1965 1.63 2.17 2.10 2.89 0.52 2.53 3.11 23.29 55.04 2.96 2.96 2.53 1966 1.86 2.31 2.76 2.98 0.50 2.30 3.02 25.56 60.55 2.87 3.05 2.30 1967 1.01 2.77 3.58 2.98 0.48 2.17 2.91 26.48 59.36 2.77 3.66 2.17 1968 1.09 2.72 3.31 3.11 0.47 2.16 2.86 26.01 55.57 2.72 3.59 2.16 1969 1.41 2.56 4.10 3.00 0.45 2.01 2.69 24.90 65.26 2.56 3.39 2.01 1 1970 1.01 2.50 3.53 2.99 0.46 1.89 2.63 25.43 62.72 2.50 3.31 1.89 1971 1.25 2.71 4.05 2.94 0.47 2.15 2.75 28.44 79.57 2.95 3.18 2.15 1972 1.54 2.55 4.39 2.57 0.43 1.96 2.52 28.03 83.06 2.69 2.91 1.96 1973 1.62 2.42 4.85 2.43 0.46 1.76 2.38 35.97 96.73 2.55 2.75 1.76 1974 1.62 2.66 2.99 2.73 0.78 2.11 2.31 33.58 97.18 2.06 3.26 2.01 1975 2.07 3.18 3.01 2.91 0.67 2.53 2.33 33.32 102.59 2.12 2.83 1./5 1976 2.56 3.17 3.36 2.76 0.55 2.16 2.00 34.39 98.13 1.78 2.42 1.49 1977 1.99 2.84 4.80 2.34 0.47 2.02 1.92 35.95 92.46 1.40 2.22 1.53 1978 1.15 3.25 7.96 2.59 0.45 1.88 1.97 33.99 80.35 1.56 2.21 1.48 1979 2.05 3.09 3.48 2.82 0.49 1.84 2.48 40.20 90.83 1.59 2.21 1.48 1980 1.44 2.58 3.25 2.71 0.53 1.72 2.29 38.71 . 83.51 1.28 1.96 1.25 1981 1.70 2.47 4.51 2.74 0.50 1.92 2.20 32.40 60.16 1.65 2.25 1.42 1982 1.77 2.50 3.28 2.70 0.55 1.85 2.20 29.42 62.37 2.01 2.15 1.41 1983 1.69 2.80 3.04 2.88 0.54 2.36 2.37 35.87 61.10 2.46 2.32 1.60 1984 2.11 2.37 2.69 3.33 0.54 2.57 2.76 34.42 59.81 2.32 2.85 2.19 ............................................................................................. - 43 - Box A Region Product - Price Series Used North potatoes farmgate price to producers milk the price paid to farmers for milk delivered to te.cooperatives inclusive of the subsidy paid to the cooperative to cover collection costs wine farmgate price for processed Ivinho verde" wine Centrat rice farmgate price for paddy tomatoes the price received by farmers for tomatoes going for processing and export, as Laid down by the government corn the price paid to farmers by the state marketing agency South wheat the price paid to farmers for wheat purchased by the state marketing agency, which had a monopoly on domestic wheat sales over this period .... ... ... ... ... .... ... ... ... ... .... ... ... ... ... .... ... ... ... ... .... ... ... ... ... .. I -44- In the South, the real price of wheat dropped steadily from 1966 to 1970, and again in 1972. The low point was reached in 1977, and then prices recovered, though never rising as high as in the mid-sixties. The real price of beef increased steadily until 1979, after which a "squeeze" on livestock farming caused a fall in real prices of about 25 percent. A sharp recovery occurred in 1983 for beef prices. For sheep the story is quite similar. Real prices were strong during the period 1960-75, reaching a high point in 1975. Prices were stable through 1980 and then experienced a rapid decline between 1981 and 1985. In terms of relative prices of wheat and beef, the price ratio dropped from 0.15 in 1962 to a low of 0.05 in 1977. For wheat relative to sheep prices there was also a sharp decline in the price ratio, from 0.8 in 1962 to 0.2 in the period 1973-78. The ratio then recovered a bit in the years following 1978. The consumer prices of most agricultural products kept pace with producer prices. The consumer price of wheat, however, was subsidized as a way of keeping bread prices stable. Corn was also sold on the domestic market by the state import agency (EPAC) at a price generally below that at which it was purchased, and thus livestock enterprises were indirectly subsidized through lower prices for mixed feed. Consumer milk prices were also held down through the payment of subsidies to the cooperatives that marketed milk in most parts of the country. Table 8 shows real consumer prices for all nine products over the period 1960-84. Wheat and corn prices in particular show significant price declines. The trend in the consumer price of milk is less marked, rising through the 1960s and falling during the 1970s, only to rise again by 1984. - 45 - Price Levels in the Absence of Support To see the impact of direct price policies, it is necessary to estimate prices in the absence of such policies. The following assumptions were made.1 Southern products: wheat, beef, and lamb prices would be tied to world market prices, CIF Lisbon, adjusted for transport costs from the producing region to milling or marketing areas; Central products: tomato prices would be reduced by elimination of the export subsidy; rice and corn prices would be tied to world prices; Northern products: milk prices would be reduced; potato and wine prices would be tied to world prices. Corn, wheat, and beef prices would have been considerably lower in the absence of price support programs, as would the prices of milk, sheep, and tomatoes. By contrast, the prices of potatoes, wine, and--in many years--rice were held back by pricing policies which yielded farmers less than the world market price. It should be remembered, however, that quality comparisons of wine are hard to make, while the world market for potatoes is limited to particular types and grades. The nonpolicy price for these two products may therefore be overstated. 1/ The real prices which would have been observed under these assumptions in the absence of direct price intervention are reported in Supplement Table 14 and the method of calculation is discussed in Annex B. -46 - Table 9 expresses these results as the nominal protection rate arising from direct price policies. This rate varies with world prices, being much lower when world prices are high. It confirms the picture of high support for beef in the 1970s, wheat in the 1960s, and tomatoes for a brief period in the mid to late 1970s. The northern commodities seem to have had less protection over this period, wine and potato prices being comparable to world prices. Milk policy was the only bright spot for northern farmers, with protection levels of about 20 percent in the late 1960s tapering off by 1974. The consumer orientation of the post-1974 years shows up in the table. Not until the price increases of 1983 did milk again benefit from significant protection. In the case of commodities raised in the Tagus Valley, protection for rice ranged from a high of 39 percent in 1972 to a low of minus 38 percent in 1974. There does not appear to be any definite trend. For tomatoes, support started in the late 1960s, and peaked in 1974 at 62 percent. Protection increased again between 1979 and 1981 as world prices weakened. Support levels for corn were steady except in 1974, when the world price was very high. Among the commodities raised in the South, wheat was supported most years and reached a high of 91 percent above the world price in 1971. In the period 1973-75 the world price was high, and wheat prices in Portugal were below this price. The level of support was less in the period 1977-83 than in the 1960-72 period. There was a substantial level of protection for beef up through 1974, ranging from 21 percent to 79 percent above world prices. Protection then tapered off but still remained 80 percent above the world price. The situation for sheep is somewhat the Table 9: Nominal Protection Rates due to Direct Price Intervention Selected Agricultural Commodities, Portugal, 1960-1983 (percent) .................Nominal Protection Rates to Producers........................ Protection to Consumers Potatoes milk Wine Rice Tomato Corn Wheat Beef Sheep wheat Milk Corn Year 1960 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 38.9% 47.8% 35.8% 7.0% -40.3% 0.0% -38.9% 1961 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 10.7% 46.3% 46.5% 14.2% -38.9% 0.0% -10.7% 1962 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -33.3% 0.0% 12.6% 43.5% 48.5% 10.8% -36.2% 0.0% -12.6% 1963 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -2.8% 0.0% 19.4% 51.0% 58.9% 15.7% -43.5% 0.0% -19.4% 1964 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 16.5% 39.8% 23.0% 15.3% -32.9% 0.0% -16.5% 1965 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.4% 0.0% 34.9% 74.2% 21.0% 12.1% -65.6% 0.0% -34.9% 1966 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% 25.1% 59.8% 37.0% 22.9% -52.0% 0.0% -25.1% 1967 0.0% 19.2% 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 24.0% 53.1% 58.2% 26.9% -45.5% 0.0% -24.0% 1968 0.0% 19.2% 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% 24.9% 69.8% 79.4% 30.4% -61.5% 0.0% *24.9% 1969 0.0% 19.2% 0.0% 33.5% 1.9% 25.3% 86.3% 72.9% 35.3% -77.1% 0.0% -25.3% 1970 0.0% 19.2% 0.0% 27.9% 5.6% 7.3% 56.7% 46.7% 30.9% -49.0% 0.0% -7.3% 1971 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% -12.5% 11.1% 33.8% 90.9% 43.2% 33.9% -104.3% 8.9% -33.8% 1972 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% 39.2% 13.0% 48.9% 61.4% 44.2% 30.8% -72.7% 10.9% -48.9% 1973 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% -17.4% 0.0% 0.0% -10.8% 71.0% 32.0% 4.5% 10.9% 0.0% 1974 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% -38.7% 61.8% -22.2% -25.4% 54.4% 26.5% 33.5% 16.7% 25.9% 1975 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% -11.6% 41.0% 30.1% -8.3% 124.5% 32.1% 16.5% 32.6% 10.2% 1976 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% -0.3% 11.5% 31.1% 3.8% 155.5% 35.7% 7.6% 46.4% 9.3% 1977 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% -11.8% 0.0% 41.5% 19.6% 164.8% 31.3% 13.0% 41.9% 6.9% 1978 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% -7.6% 8.7% 37.5% 23.6% 143.3% 28.4% 2.3% 48.5% -8.4% 1979 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 6.7% 24.4% 22.7% 36.2% 114.3% 28.9% 12.6% 46.0% 1.2% 1980 0.0% 5.8% 0.0% 14.7% 42.3% 21.0% 27.8% 98.2% 18.2% 28.4% 44.2% 12.2% 1981 0.0% 7.9% 0.0% -22.5% 26.4% 15.7% 11.5% 68.6% 4.7% 16.5% 31.4% 14.0% 1982 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% 0.7% 8.5% 38.8% 31.0% 47.7% 8.7% -19.8% 34.3% -5.8% 1983 0.0% 37.1% 0.0% 15.7% 4.6% 41.1% 31.7% 82.3% 16.2% -36.5% 33.2% 4.5% 1984 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 20.7% 15.1% 36.5% 44.1% 44.2% 5.4% -21.3% 18.6% -16.5% - 48 - same, with protection levels increasing 30 percent by 1968 and remaining constant at that level during the ensuing decade. By 1981, however, the level of protection had declined sharply. Table 8 also shows consumer prices in the absence of direct price intervention. From 1960 until 1972, wheat consumers would have paid 30 to 100 percent above the world price, but in the 1973-81 period consumer prices were subsidized up to a high of 33 percent in 1974. Consumers were taxed again in 1982-83. In milk, the domestic price would have been equal to the world price until 1970, indicating no policy on consumption. But the tide would have turned in 1971, and consumer price subsidies would have reached a peak of 49 percent in 1978. But direct price policies are not necessarily the main influence on relative prices. The government's macroeconomic policies and its commercial policies in other sectors, together with policies on agricultural input and factor markets, can also have a major effect. If the government intervenes in the exchange rate to hold it above or below the rate which represents an equilibrium in foreign exchange markets, it alters the relative prices of tradables and nontradables. If Portugal had kept the escudo overvalued during a particular period, the world price of wheat would have appeared lower in domestic currency. Adjusting to the equilibrium exchange rate raises the "no-policy" price of the tradable good and lowers the calculated level of protection. Relative to a nontraded good, the price ratio would be higher in the "no- policy" case. In other words, some of the apparent protection for traded goods could be interpreted as compensation for an overvalued escudo, and the strength of the relative price of nontraded goods might be even more due to policy than was apparent at actual exchange rates. If exchange - 49 - rates are held below their equilibrium rate, protection is understated and the benefits to nontraded goods will be less than otherwise. Commercial policy achieved by manipulating the price of nontraded goods also has an effect on relative agricultural prices. This occurs both directly as an influence on the price of nonfarm goods, and indirectly through an effect on exchange rates. Up to this point, the price of non- agricultural goods has been obtained from the wholesale price index. This needs to be corrected to determine the exchange rate disequilibrium relative to the equilibrium exchange rate; the effect of the general level of tariffs on nonagricultural prices; and the impact on the equilibrium rate of exchange arising from the removal of tariffs.2 These adjusted prices are used to estimate protection levels in the absence of direct or indirect price intervention. The net effect of both direct and indirect intervention is shown in Table 10. Up until 1968, the domestic prices of potatoes and wine were equivalent to world prices, thanks to direct intervention. The positive benefits to producers in the central and northern regions were enhanced by exchange rate variations, since an undervalued escudo acted as an implicit subsidy to producers of traded goods. By the 1970s the situation was reversed and the overvalued escudo reduced the apparent level of nominal protection for traded commodities. Table 10 also shows relative consumer prices in the absence of direct or indirect intervention. The consumer prices of wheat and corn are higher if one measures the total effects of policy up until 1988. In 1965, 2/ The estimated "adjusted" prices are reported in Supplement Table 17 and the calculations are discussed in Annex B. The derivation of the equilibrium exchange rate and of the implicit tariff are described in Annex A. Table 10: Nominal Protection Rates due to Direct and Indirect Price Intervention Selected Agricultural Coamodities, Portugal, 1960-1983 (percent) ................................................................................................. ..................Nominal Protection Rates to Producers........................ Protection to Consumers Potatoes Milk Wine Rice Tomato Corn Wheat Beef Sheep Wheat Milk Corn Year ............................. - -- - - - -- --.........................................................................------- 1960 16.2% 4.4% 16.2% 17.8% 16.2% 59.7% 70.5% 53.3% 3.5% -61.9% -4.4% -59.7% 1961 12.3% 6.8% 12.3% 15.6% 12.3% 23.4% 63.3% 60.7% 10.3% -55.1% -6.8% -23.4% 1962 9.1% 2.9% 9.1% -27.4% 9.1% 22.2% 55.9% 59.1% 8.3% -48.0% -2.9% -22.2% 1963 -0.5% 0.4% -0.5% -3.2% -0.5% 18.9% 50.3% 58.3% 15.9% -42.8% -0.4% -18.9% 1964 13.8% 3.5% 13.8% 18.5% 13.8% 31.5% 58.2% 37.3% 11.1% -50.4% -3.5% -31.5% 1965 12.1% 3.3% 12.1% 35.5% 12.1% 50.1% 94.2% 33.3% 8.8% -84.6% -3.3% -50.1% 1966 9.1% 1.8% 9.1% 19.9% 9.1% 35.7% 73.4% 47.4% 19.0% -64.9% -1.8% -35.7% 1967 13.8% 20.6% 13.8% 19.0% 13.8% 39.9% 73.0% 75.9% 20.4% -64.5% -1.1% -39.9% 1968 0.0% 18.0% 0.0% 9.3% 0.0% 24.9% 69.9% 79.4% 30.4% -61.5% 1.0% -24.9% 1969 -8.0% 13.3% -8.0% 23.1% -6.3% 15.9% 72.2% 61.5% 41.7% -63.7% 5.0% -15.9% 1970 -2.4% 16.9% -2.4% 25.0% 3.0% 4.9% 53.1% 43.7% 32.4% -45.6% 2.0% -4.9% 1971 -3.7% 6.4% -3.7% -15.7% 7.0% 29.2% 84.2% 38.6% 36.5% -97.2% 11.3% -29.2% 1972 -4.6% 7.1% -4.6% 33.2% 7.8% 42.7% 54.4% 38.5% 33.5% -65.3% 15.2% -42.7% 1973 -6.5% 8.2% -6.5% -22.6% -6.5% -6.1% -16.4% 61.3% 36.4% 10.5% 14.3% 6.1% 1974 0.1% 14.7% 0.1% -38.6% 61.9% -22.2% -25.3% 54.5% 26.4% 33.4% 14.1% 25.8% 1975 -1.2% 8.9% -1.2% -12.6% 39.3% 28.7% -9.4% 122.4% 32.9% 17.5% 29.8% 11.2% 1976 -2.5% 8.6% -2.5% -2.7% 8.7% 28.0% 1.3% 150.3% 36.6% 9.8% 44.1% 11.5% 1977 -14.7% 2.8% -14.7% -24.5% -14.7% 21.9% 2.7% 132.3% 36.4% 25.3% 42.3% 19.7% 1978 -15.1% -1.6% -15.1% -21.2% -7.6% 18.1% 5.8% 112.6% 32.9% 16.3% 50.5% 6.9% 1979 7.3% 5.2% 7.3% 14.2% 33.5% 30.9% 45.6% 127.5% 27.2% 6.6% 44.4% -5.4% 1980 -12.5% 2.5% -12.5% 0.8% 24.5% 6.8% 12.5% 76.3% 19.9% 37.0% 45.9% 22.5% 1981 -8.1% 9.5% -8.1% -28.6% 16.1% 6.8% 2.8% 56.6% 4.5% 23.0% 30.4% 20.6% 1982 -13.2% 6.3% -13.2% -12.2% -5.8% 21.8% 14.5% 30.5% 9.0% -4.7% 34.3% 7.2% 1983 -16.1% 31.6% -16.1% -2.4% -12.2% 19.6% 11.4% 56.3% 18.3% -15.4% 35.9% 19.0% 1984 -14.3% -1.7% -14.3% 3.9% -1.4% 18.0% 24.4% 25.6% 6.3% -4.7% 22.6% -0.7% -------------------------------------------------------------------------......................... - 51 - for instance, wheat was 85 percent more expensive in Portugal than it was on the world market if one includes the adjustment for exchange rate variation. By 1980, wheat was 37 percent less expensive on the world market if both price policy and exchange rate variations are included. The Impact of Input Price Policies on Value Added The existence of price policies on agricultural inputs influences the profitability of farms using those inputs. This is usually measured in terms of "value added": the gross margin of output value compared to the costs of purchased inputs. The value added in the case of the nine commodities and the method of calculation are found in Annex I. It is also possible to calculate the value added that would have been observed in the absence of direct or indirect price interventions. In addition to corrections for output price policies, exchange rate policies, and nonagricultural price distortions arising from commercial policies, value added is adjusted for input-price policies, particularly on fuel and fertilizer. Thus, the resulting relative prices should come close to defining the impact on factor incomes in agriculture. These values added are given in Supplement Tables 12A and 12C. Although value added was high in 1973-75, when wheat prices on world markets rose steeply, value added generally declined after 1960. Since value added at world prices is an important measure of comparative advantage, one can conclude that any comparative advantage that Portugal might have had in wheat production eroded after 1960. By contrast, the value added for tomatoes and milk, shorn of the influence of the policies, appears to have moved broadly in step. - 52 - In comparison with its effect on prices, policy intervention had a more pronounced effect on value added. Nominal protection levels measure the impact of intervention on prices, and hence are relevant to buyers. Producers, on the other hand, are sensitive to the returns to factors employed in the industry, as represented by value added. The rate of effective protection is the extent to which value added is supported by the effects of price intervention. Table 11 shows the impact on value added for the nine commodities from 1960 to 1984. The effective rates of protection for potatoes, wine, milk, tomatoes, and corn were positive over the period (except for corn in 1974), since input subsidies enhance the impact of output policies. Protection for rice and wheat turned negative in the early 1970s as a result of low output prices relative to world prices but recovered in the late 1970s. Over most of the period the effective rate of protection for sheep was substantially positive but was negative for beef throughout the period as a result of negative value added at nonpolicy (i.e., world) prices. This emphasizes the difficulties in interpretation of this particular measure. The calculated levels of effective protection arising from both direct and indirect price intervention are shown in Table 12. Exchange rate effects were significant as a proportion of value added for a number of products. Protection for rice, for instance, appears much more significant in the period up to 1966; the subsidies implicit in the undervalued exchange rate were large relative to value added. By contrast, exchange rate adjustments caused little change in the estimated protection levels for potatoes and wine, both of which remained negative for much of Table 11 Effective Rates of Protection due to Direct Price Intervention Selected Agricultural Commodities, Portugal, 1960-1984 .--- --- - -- -- - -- - -- Effective Rate of Protection %----------------------- Potatoes Milk Wine Rice Tomato Corn Wheat Beef Sheep Year 1960 -1.5% -6.1% -0.1% 9.2% -0.8% 98.4% 297.0% -83.1% 359.6% 1961 0.4% -1.2% -0.0% 17.0% -0.6% 22.8% 287.9% -83.2% -233.0% 1962 0.4% -0.7% -0.0% -63.8% -0.4% 26.0% 220.0% -76.8% -148.4% 1963 9.9% 7.3% 0.3% -0.5% 0.5% 49.0% 445.8% -86.8% 502.5% 1964 17.2% 5.4% 0.3% 27.6% 0.5% 41.6% 231.6% -87.0% 84.7% 1965 1.8% 2.4% 0.3% 160.9% 0.5% 77.3% 1646.1% -69.7% 100.2% 1966 1.2% 3.1% 0.2% 49.0% 0.5% 56.9% 563.4% -119.9% 160.8% 1967 11.6% 58.4% 0.1% 21.4% 0.5% 53.1% 315.4% -149.6% 185.3% 1968 11.7% 69.1% 0.3% 40.1% 1.5% 61.0% 1835.8% -127.0% 734.4% 1969 3.3% 69.1% 0.2% 186.7% 4.3% 62.7% -2020.8% -133.7% 199.5% 1970 6.8% 62.8% 0.2% 115.0% 9.0% 17.4% 407.3% -187.3% 139.1% 1971 3.3% 19.6% 0.2% -19.7% 17.7% 70.8% 1631.4% -1738.0% 85.7% 1972 1.4% 23.3% 0.1% 223.3% 20.1% 111.5% 322.5% 680.8% 62.5% 1973 1.3% 35.7% 0.1% -29.4% 0.7% 3.2% -14.6% 810.8% 61.7% 1974 3.1% 46.6% 0.5% -54.1% 86.1% -26.1% -33.4% 1305.7% 62.0% 1975 -0.1% 10.6% -0.1% -20.7% 55.3% 50.0% -17.7% -293.5% 61.7% 1976 3.0% 15.6% 1.2% 9.4% 18.9% 70.6% 43.0% -396.7% 79.4% 1977 3.0% 12.8% 0.5% -19.8% 2.6% 96.3% 132.9% -534.1% 66.3% 1978 16.8% 8.5% 0.6% -9.1% 18.3% 108.7% 203.6% -470.8% 70.2% 1979 4.6% 9.6% 1.3% 23.9% 41.7% 67.2% 188.3% -1731.9% 66.6% 1980 13.5% 43.8% 2.0% 87.0% 77.3% 92.3% 327.5% -1874.6% 66.2% 1981 10.4% 72.1% 1.3% -32.8% 51.4% 65.3% 174.5% -453.5% 68.0% 1982 6.2% 28.7% 1.2% 11.5% 15.7% 169.6% -1466.6% -423.7% 48.0% 1983 6.2% 161.6% 0.8% 168.7% 10.2% 130.1% -626.9% -200.2% 1071.1% 1984 -0.1% 6.2% -0.1% 91.1% 23.1% . 79.0% 1259.2% -290.1% 26.8% Source: Annex B Table 12 Effective Rates of Protection due to Direct and Indirect Price Intervention Selected Agricultural Commodities, Portugal, 1960-1984 ......................................................................... .---------- ----- -- - Effective Rate of Protection I------------------------ Potatoes Milk Wine Rice Tomato Corn Wheat Beef Sheep Year -------------------------- ................................................ 1960 -229% 30% 23% 260% 26% 195% 1940% -89% -367% 1961 -168% 51% 16% 134% 19% 57% 912% -86% -227% 1962 53% 42% 13% -57% 14% 49% 413% -81% -128% 1963 4% 47% -0% -2% -0% 47% 427% -89% -585% 1964 -183% 39% 22% 135% 23% 89% 680% -92% 100% 1965 50% 42% 19% 786% 20% 124% -1867% -80% 148% 1966 27% 30% 13% 117% 15% 87% 1778% -114% 236% 1967 -269% 92% 17% 86% 23% 98% 923% -133% 240% 1968 12% 100% 0% 40% 2% 61% 1853% -122% -983% 1969 -18% 87% -9% 104% -8% 39% 3593% -128% 1155% 1970 -9% 86% -3% 97% 5% 13% 344% -165% 286% 1971 -8% 26% -4% -25% 11% 60% 1021% -541% 134% 1972 -8% 27% -5% 161% 12% 94% 252% -4512% 98% 1973 -10% 42% -7% -37% -8% -6% -23% 1246% 90% 1974 3% 67% 1% -54% 86% -26% -33% 4954% 69% 1975 -2% 23% -1% -22% 53% 47% -19% -278% 69% 1976 -0% 28% -2% 5% 15% 64% 35% -383% 87% 1977 -19% 20% -15% -40% -16% 54% 46% -576% 94% 1978 -22% 10% -15% -32% -5% 59% 76% -459% 116% 1979 17% 21% 10% 44% 57% 89% 262% -740% 73% 1980 -12% 60% -12% 35% 47% 53% 163% -1822% 105% 1981 -6% 121% -8% -42% 34% 43% 103% -459% 105% 1982 -19% 56% -14% -22% -4% 96% 485% -594% 96% 1983 -28% 408% -18% 32% -13% 67% 897% -196% -337% 1984 -26% 103% -18% 19% -2% 39% 226% -286% 768% Source: Annex 6 - 55 - the period. In the case of wheat the effect of adjusting for exchange rate variation seems to add volatility to the measure of effective protection, as value added at world prices and the equilibrium exchange rate hover between large negative and large positive numbers. In the following chapters the implications of price policies on output are calculated from the nominal rates of protection for wheat, beef, and sheep to avoid reliance on unstable protection measures. For all other commodities the effective rate of protection is used to show the implications of price policies on output. Chapter 4 THE IMPACT OF PRICE INTERVENTION ON SUPPLY AND DEMAND Government policies on agricultural prices affect the level of agricultural output by changing the relative profitability of production. If profits increase, one can expect output to reflect this. The extent of the response will depend upon whether farmers consider the increase in profitability to be transitory or not. It will also depend upon the ease of shifting from one crop to another and the amount of new investment required. The response will also take into account the potential returns from alternative crops, and the effect that an expansion in production of the preferred crop may have on the price of purchased inputs. The concept which has the burden of representing all these adjustments is elasticity in the supply price. Clearly, it is not possible for one parameter to capture all of the dynamic reactions to price policy in a sector, but the use of plausible degrees of price elasticity gives some idea of the magnitude of the effects of price policies on output. The procedure used here is to start with a straightforward calculation of the year-to-year production levels that would have resulted from the removal of both direct and indirect price policies, based on estimated short-run elasticities, and then to consider the likely response over time by including a lagged adjustment. Supplement Tables 24, 25, 26, and 27 show the actual production levels of all nine commodities and the levels which might have been produced in the absence of direct and indirect price interventions. Annex C gives the method of calculation, which for most products was to apply the proportional change in real value added to a supply elasticity defined in - 57 - terms of output response to value added. In the case of commodities produced in the South, price changes rather than changes in value added were used because of excessive volatility in the latter. The values of the elasticities underlying the estimates are given in Table 05 in Annex C. The results are summarized in Table 13. The effects on output trace broadly the effects of relative prices for the various commodities, modified by cross-commodity effects and by changes in input prices. In the case of northern products, milk output has been supported consistently since 1962. The impact of price policies on the outputs of potatoes and wine has generally been negative, indicating the substitution of milk production for production of potatoes and wine as well as lower prices for the products themselves. As for products in the central region, the output of corn has clearly been boosted by price policy while rice output has been constrained. Subsidies have largely determined the growing of tomatoes for processing, and output since 1973 has been significantly greater than it would have been otherwise. In the South, the short-run impact of price policy on wheat is quite evident, with wheat production as much as 57 percent greater than it would have been otherwise in the period up to 1972. By 1974, however, the policy of restraining wheat prices caused wheat output to fall an estimated 28 percent below what would otherwise have been the case. The impact of price policy on beef output became noticeable in 1974. Production rose substantially, at the expense of wheat. Much of the increase in beef output was the result of greater use of imported feedgrains. Sheep output was relatively little affected by price policy over this period. Table 13 Short term and Cumutative Effects on Output of Direct and TotaL Price Interventions, Portugal, 1960-1984 - - - - - - --................... POTA ..................... ...................... M ...................... ......................-...................... .................. POTATO ................. ...................... MILK .................. ...................... WINE ................... percent change in output percent change in output percent change in output direct intervention total intervention direct intervention total intervention direct intervention total intervention Year short term long term short term long term short term long term short term long term short term long term short term long term 1960 0.0% 0.1% -9.7% -13.8% -0.2% -0.5% 2.1% 3.2% 0.2% 0.4% 13.4% 18.7% 1961 0.0% 0.0% -5.3% -8.1% -0.0% -0.1% 1.4% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 9.5% 1962 0.0% 0.1% 2.5% 1.9% -0.0% -0.1% -1.5% -0.7% -0.0% -0.0% -2.2% -2.3% 1963 0.2% 0.2% -0.3% -0.9% 0.1% 0.4% 1.4% 3.5% -0.5% -0.7% -1.3% -3.0% 1964 0.3% 0.2% -6.9% -10.3% 0.0% 0.3% 1.6% 3.2% -0.5% -0.8% 9.4% 12.9% 1965 0.1% 0.1% 3.1% 2.4% -0.0% 0.1% -2.3% -1.7% -0.2% -0.3% -2.2% -1.8% 1966 0.1% 0.1% 1.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.2% -1.3% -0.5% -0.2% -0.4% -1.3% -1.0% 1967 -0.7% -2.3% -12.0% -18.1% 3.1% 7.9% 6.9% 14.4% -2.7% -6.3% 10.9% 11.4% 1968 -0.7% -2.5% -1.3% -3.9% 3.5% 9.0% 5.2% 13.2% -3.3% -7.5% -4.5% -10.6% 1969 -0.9% -2.7% -2.4% -4.4% 3.6% 9.1% 6.3% 14.1% -3.1% -7.3% -4.1% -10.8% 1970 -0.8% -2.4% -1.7% -3.9% 3.3% 8.3% 5.1% 12.3% -2.8% -6.7% -3.8% -9.4% 1971 -0.1% -0.6% -0.8% -1.5% 1.1% 2.8% 2.3% 5.1% -1.2% -2.6% -1.6% -4.1% 1972 -0.3% -1.0% -1.1% -1.7% 1.4% 3.5% 2.6% 5.5% -1.3% -2.9% -1.6% -4.2% un 1973 -0.5% -1.5% -1.6% -2.6% 2.0% 5.2% 3.8% 8.2% -1.8% -4.1% -2.3% -6.2% 1974 -0.6% -2.1% -1.1% -3.3% 2.9% 7.6% 4.3% 11.1% -2.7% -6.2% -3.8% -8.8% 1975 -0.2% -0.6% -0.7% -1.5% 0.7% 1.8% 1.8% 4.3% -0.5% -1.3% -1.2% -3.1% 1976 0.1% -0.4% -0.6% -1.5% 0.8% 2.5% 2.3% 5.6% -1.2% -2.5% -2.0% -4.7% 1977 0.2% -0.1% -1.9% -1.9% 0.6% 1.8% 4.1% 7.4% -1.1% -2.1% -2.2% -6.3% 1978 1.8% 1.9% -0.6% -0.1% -0.2% 0.5% 3.1% 5.3% -2.6% -3.7% -3.0% -6.7% 1979 0.5% 0.3% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 1.0% -0.7% 0.7% -1.1% -1.8% *1.6% -1.9% 1980 1.0% -0.0% -1.4% -2.6% 1.6% 5.3% 5.5% 11.9% -3.7% -6.9% -4.7% -11.0% 1981 0.3% -1.2% -1.9% -4.4% 2.8% 8.0% 7.1% 16.8% -4.1% -8.3% -6.1% -14.3% 1982 0.4% -0.2% -1.8% -2.4% 0.8% 2.6% 4.7% 9.5% -1.6% -3.0% -3.2% -8.2% 1983 -1.3% -4.1% -6.0% -12.7% 5.5% 14.1% 17.5% 40.9% -4.9% -11.4% -12.6% -31.6% 1984 -0.0% -0.1% -2.0% -2.3% 0.1% 0.3% 4.3% 7.9% -0.1% -0.2% -2.2% -6.4% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------.................. Table 13 Short term and Cumulative Effects on Output of Direct and Total Price Interventions, Portugal, 1960-1984 (contd) . ........ ............ ...................... ..................... ..................... ...................... ...................... ................. RICE........... ....... ..................... TOMTO ................. ...................... CORMN................... percent change in output percent change in output percent change in output direct intervention total intervention direct intervention total intervention direct intervention total intervention Year short term long term short term long term short term Long term short term Long term short term Long term short term tong term ........................................................................................................................................... 1960 -6.6% -8.1% -5.3% -2.1% -9.5% -12.0% -10.4% -15.8% 9.6% 12.0% 14.0% 15.9% 1961 -0.7% -0.5% 1.0% 3.9% -2.7% -3.6% 1.6% 0.3% 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 1.4% 1962 -5.2% -8.0% -7.7% -11.0% -0.4% 0.4% 5.0% 7.1% 3.7% 5.2% 5.0% 6.7% 1963 -3.5% -4.4% -3.4% -4.3% -4.0% -5.0% -4.2% -5.2% 4.7% 5.9% 4.6% 5.8% 1964 -1.2% -0.8% 0.2% 3.7% -4.4% -5.9% -0.3% -2.5% 3.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 1965 3.9% 9.0% 37.6% 67.6% -13.8% -19.8% -32.2% -53.1% 5.0% 4.8% -4.5% -12.7% 1966 -1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.4% -7.2% -9.9% -5.1% -8.4% 4.8% 5.5% 5.4% 5.7% 1967 -2.5% -2.4% -3.0% -1.0% -5.9% -7.8% -1.0% -2.9% 5.0% 6.0% 6.7% 7.5% 1968 -1.5% -0.5% -1.5% -0.5% -7.1% -9.8% -7.1% -9.8% 5.2% 6.0% 5.2% 6.0% 1969 10.7% 20.0% 6.5% 11.8% -13.6% -21.1% -13.6% -19.3% 0.9% -1.2% 1.6% 0.7% 1970 7.8% 13.9% 7.0% 12.2% -2.9% -6.1% -3.6% -6.7% -2.2% -4.1% -1.9% -3.6% 1971 -9.4% -12.5% -8.4% -11.4% 3.7% 5.1% 1.4% 2.4% 7.7% 9.9% 7.1% 9.2% U1 1972 7.7% 17.5% 4.7% 11.5% -12.0% -19.9% -11.5% -17.9% 5.1% 3.7% 5.4% 4.8% 1973 -2.9% -4.6% -1.9% -3.8% 1.7% 2.7% -2.1% -1.8% 1.2% 1.8% 0.9% 1.6% 1974 -12.1% -17.2% -12.1% -17.2% 64.4% 81.8% 64.5% 82.0% -7.9% -9.1% -7.9% -9.1% 1975 -12.1% -16.0% -11.8% -15.6% 31.4% 39.8% 30.2% 38.3% 2.8% 3.8% 2.7% 3.7% 1976 -7.6% -9.0% -7.1% -8.7% 3.4% 4.0% 2.0% 2.4% 7.4% 9.1% 7.0% 8.7% 1977 -10.3% *13.5% -6.3% -9.2% -8.1% -9.7% -13.8% -16.4% 12.0% 15.3% 8.7% 11.3% 1978 -12.1% -15.4% *7.5% -10.5% -0.3% -0.2% -7.7% -8.9% 12.1% 15.3% 8.4% 10.9% 1979 -7.4% -8.4% -8.8% -9.3% 17.2% 20.9% 23.0% 27.7% 4.1% 4.8% 4.8% 5.5% 1980 -7.5% -6.1% -5.9% -6.0% 34.4% 41.0% 22.1% 26.8% 2.4% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1981 -13.0% -17.3% -10.2% -14.2% 26.0% 33.2% 18.1% 23.6% 4.8% 6.4% 3.8% 5.2% 1982 -12.7% -15.6% -7.7% -10.1% -6.0% -7.7% -10.0% -12.2% 15.1% 18.8% 10.0% 12.7% 1983 -0.4% 3.9% -2.0% -1.6% -13.4% -19.6% -15.1% -19.4% 9.6% 10.5% 7.2% 8.7% 1984 -1.8% 0.3% -1.6% -1.4% 0.9% -0.5% -5.4% -7.1% 4.9% 5.2% 3.8% 4.5% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------.. ................ Table 13 Short term and Cumulative Effects on Output of Direct and Total Price Interventions, Portugal, 1960-1984,(contd) ..............HEAT................ ......................BEEF ................. .....................SHEEP.................. percent change in output percent change in output percent change in output direct intervention total intervention direct intervention total Intervention direct intervention total intervention Year short term long term short term long term short term long term short term long term short term tong term short term Long term ........................................................................................................................................... 1960 28.4% 28.0% 42.1% 42.7% -0.3% 13.6% 0.1% 21.6% -1.8% -2.1% -3.5% -5.3% 1961 25.3% 21.6% 35.5% 41.4% 3.2% 21.9% 4.2% 33.8% -1.1% -0.4% -2.5% -5.3% 1962 23.1% 18.7% 30.5% 26.9% 4.6% 24.7% 5.5% 30.5% -1.4% -1.3% -2.4% -3.6% 1963 26.7% 20.8% 26.2% 21.4% 6.0% 30.3% 6.6% 30.5% -1.3% -0.8% -1.3% -0.9% 1964 24.4% 25.1% 35.5% 36.0% -2.8% 4.9% -2.1% 11.3% -0.2% 1.4% -1.7% -1.4% 1965 49.6% 57.2% 62.1% 71.2% -11.6% -6.7% -12.0% -2.3% -1.9% -1.1% -3.4% -3.9% 1966 36.2% 36.7% 44.5% 44.0% -3.4% 9.4% -2.5% 13.4% -0.4% 2.0% -1.6% -0.0% 1967 27.8% 21.8% 39.6% 28.7% 4.8% 27.9% 6.8% 33.1% -0.1% 2.5% -2.0% 0.2% 1968 36.3% 28.0% 36.4% 26.6% 7.4% 39.5% 8.7% 38.1% -0.7% 1.7% -0.7% 2.3% 1969 49.1% 45.0% 40.5% 32.0% 1.2% 28.9% 2.4% 21.0% -0.7% 2.6% 0.9% 7.4% 1970 32.1% 29.3% 30.0% 25.2% 0.1% 17.3% 1.2% 14.5% 0.5% 4.1% 0.9% 5.6% 1971 57.1% 61.1% 53.0% 53.5% -9.3% 3.9% -7.8% 0.7% -0.4% 3.5% 0.2% 5.8% 1972 35.9% 34.5% 31.7% 25.4% -1.8% 13.8% -0.7% 7.9% 0.4% 4.0% 1.1% 7.2% 1973 -20.4% -41.3% -23.1% -43.7% 24.0% 56.9% 23.6% 47.6% 2.9% 6.6% 3.8% 9.6% 1974 -28.1% -47.3% -28.0% -46.2% 22.5% 48.5% 23.5% 54.1% 3.1% 6.5% 3.1% 5.0% 1975 -27.2% -60.5% -27.7% -59.4% 40.6% 98.9% 41.4% 108.5% 1.7% 3.8% 1.9% 1.5% 1976 -23.6% -62.4% -24.6% -61.2% 47.4% 119.7% 47.8% 134.8% 1.0% 2.8% 1.3% 0.1% 1977 -13.5% -51.4% -20.7% -52.3% 46.8% 122.8% 41.7% 117.1% -0.3% 0.2% 1.6% 1.2% 1978 -7.1% -38.9% -15.1% -41.8% 39.1% 104.7% 34.6% 91.2% -0.4% 0.2% 1.5% 2.7% 1979 6.6% -16.1% 11.3% -12.6% 26.8% 77.7% 29.9% 86.0% -0.3% 1.1% -1.1% -0.6% 1980 3.6% -16.1% -4.0% -19.6% 24.0% 68.4% 21.4% 59.7% -0.9% -0.8% 0.4% 0.7% 1981 -2.9% -17.5% -7.2% -16.7% 19.0% 51.0% 17.4% 53.0% -1.3% -2.6% -0.7% -2.9% 1982 14.3% 7.9% 5.2% 6.6% 7.5% 28.0% 6.3% 26.6% -1.2% -1.3% -0.1% -1.0% 1983 9.0% -6.0% -1.6% -11.6% 18.1% 54.7% 15.3% 44.7% -1.0% -0.9% 0.6% 1.1% 1984 24.5% 21.5% 13.2% 12.5% 3.3% 21.6% 2.3% 13.8% -2.0% -2.8% -0.7% -0.9% ........................................................................................................................................... - 61 - Table 13 also shows the same pattern of production in response to price over the long term. Under such a measure the impact on beef production is even more noticeable, since beef production does not respond quickly to year-to-year price changes. Wine output also would probably have increased to a greater extent in the absence of price policies if farmers had adjusted to higher prices. The same table shows the implications of taking indirect (i.e., exchange rate and nonfarm) protection into account. Milk production has increased as a result of macroeconomic policies, in part because the prices of the alternative crops of potatoes and wine were held back by exchange rate overvaluation after 1965. Apart from the early 1960s, when an undervalued exchange rate boosted commodity prices, exchange rate policies held down the production of tradable products in the central region. Thus, corn, rice, and tomato output suffered from macroeconomic policies, which offset to some extent the positive effect of output subsidies. Macroeconomic policies also adversely affected wheat output from 1973 to 1983, but the adverse effect was much less marked for sheep production, and effect on beef output was positive. For milk and corn during this period, the output effect was generally positive. The same pattern is visible in the cumulative impacts of price policies, as shown in the fourth column for each commodity in Table 13. In order to interpret this set of estimates, which is based on a single elasticity value for each commodity, it is necessary to elaborate on what a situation of "no price policy" would mean to farmers. The social value of wheat and tomato output was calculated as the border price, converted at an exchange rate which implied balance of payments equilibrium and no import tariffs, deflated by the prices of all nonagricultural goods which would have existed in the absence of tariffs and payment imbalances. These prices vary from year to year as world market conditions shift. - 62 - "Private" prices (i.e., the prices that farmers actually receive) also change from year to year. However, these domestic prices are set by the government, in advance of the production decision, and are changed relatively little in nominal terms. Thus, in a situation of low or steady inflation the real price level is likely to be fairly well known in advance. By contrast, the social price may vary considerably from year to year in a way which is both unpredictable and unknown at the time of planting. The Impact of Price Intervention on Levels of Consumption Changes in consumption due to price policies can be calculated in an analogous way. Annex C gives details of the calculations, and Table C6 in that Annex shows the demand elasticities used. The results, summarized in Table 14, show that Portugal's price policies stimulated milk, corn, and wheat demand in years when high world prices would otherwise have restricted it. On the other hand, consumption of livestock apparently suffered as a result of price policy. Potato and wine demand might have been lower in the absence of price policy, depending on the extent to which export outlets would have opened up in those commodities. (As an export product, tomato paste was not considered.) The Effect of Changes in Output on Foreign Exchange Earnings Output changes due to price policies influence the level of trade and hence the amount of foreign exchange spent on imports and earned from exports. Price policies therefore often have a strong impact on a country's foreign exchange account. Controls on the prices of imports are justified as "saving" foreign exchange, while attempts to stimulate exports Table 14: Effects of Price Policy on Consumption of Selected Agricultural Products. Portugal, 1960-1984 percent increase in consumption due to direct and indirectprice policies Year Potatoes Milk Wine Rice Corn Wheat Beef Sheep 1960 -0.0% -0.9% -2.7% -8.1% -10.1% -11.4% -28.2% -2.6% 1961 22.9% -1.4% -5.1% -12.2% -5.4% -10.7% -33.3% -8.0% 1962 43.5% -0.6% -0.3% 23.1% *5.2% -9.9% -29.7% -5.4% 1963 30.2% -0.1% 4.3% 0.7% -4.6% -9.2% -29.4% -9.0% 1964 24.6% -0.7% 2.7% -7.8% -6.7% -10.1% -23.0% -6.5% 1965 -0.1% -0.7% 3.7% -12.6% -9.1% -13.4% -21.9% -5.5% 1966 -1.1% -0.4% 0.5% -7.6% -7.3% -11.7% -25.4% -9.9% 1967 24.7% -0.2% 0.3% -4.4% -7.9% -11.7% -29.8% -9.9% 1968 63.6% 0.2% 6.3% -2.7% -5.6% -11.4% -31.9% -13.8% 1969 26.6% 1.2% 4.1% -6.3% -4.0% -11.6% -27.0% -16.6% 1970 77.1% 0.4% 11.5% -8.3% -1.4% -9.6% -23.5% -14.3% 1971 68.7% 2.9% 9.7% 15.4% -6.3% -14.2% -21.2% -15.5% 1972 -3.4% 4.1% 11.6% -8.3% -8.2% -11.7% -18.4% -14.1% 1973 16.7% 3.8% 10.5% 24.5% 2.0% 4.1% -27.6% -15.3% 1974 -1.5% 3.8% 17.4% 33.9% 11.6% 20.3% -31.2% -13.7% 1975 28.0% 10.3% 5.2% -0.9% 3.9% 7.7% -40.1% -15.8% 1976 4.4% 21.0% 3.0% -7.4% 4.0% 3.8% -42.1% -16.8% 1977 12.9% 19.2% 3.9% 5.9% 8.0% 12.9% -41.1% -17.1% 1978 199.8% 29.0% -2.8% 10.0% 2.3% 7.0% -38.3% -15.5% 1979 35.0% 21.3% 11.9% -6.5% -1.5% 2.4% -38.2% -13.1% 1980 2.0% 23.0% 19.7% -4.0% 9.5% 24.7% -34.1% -11.4% 1981 48.5% 10.6% -2.3% 11.5% 8.5% 11.2% -33.1% -6.3% 1982 -4.3% 13.0% 3.7% -2.7% 2.4% -1.5% -28.0% -8.9% 1983 18.9% 14.0% 1.1% -5.3% 7.6% -4.3% -31.3% -11.2% 1984 11.1% 6.9% 4.0% -3.7% -0.2% -1.5% -20.3% -4.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 64 - are regarded as having a value to the economy that exceeds the costs of such efforts. Such arguments only have merit if the exchange rate is overvalued and foreign exchange becomes more valuable. However, "saving foreign exchange" has a widespread appeal which can be exploited by domestic interest groups. Savings of foreign exchange depend on the impact of price policies on output as well as on prices themselves. As a consequence, it is necessary to calculate the impact on foreign exchange of both direct price policy intervention and cumulative price responses. The largest impacts arise from a combination of substantial effects on both prices and supply, and a significant level of trade. Wine, potatoes, and beef have potentially more foreign exchange implications than corn, wheat, and tomatoes, despite the importance of the latter group in trade.1 The short-term impact of direct intervention in prices (Table 15) suggests that foreign exchange was "saved" over the period 1960-69, when price policy stimulated the output of most of the nine products except potatoes, wine, and tomatoes. In the 1970s, however, the general tendency to keep prices low resulted in a loss of foreign exchange. Only beef and sheep prices resulted in a gain of foreign exchange. The loss amounted to nearly 20 percent of total export earnings in 1970 and more than 16 percent in 1974, and thus had implications for the rest of the economy and the exchange rate. In most other years the impact was considerably smaller, though still potentially significant in terms of macroeconomic management. 1/ The method of calculating the short-run and cumulative impacts of removing direct and indirect price policies on foreign exchange flows is given in Annex D, and the results are reported in Tables 15 and 16, and Supplement Tables 28 and 29. Table 15t- Short term Effects on Foreign Exchange of Direct Price Interventions, Portugal, 1960-1984 (S miltion) ................................................................................................................................. ........... Additional export earnings or reduction in import costs due to price policy Proportion of total Potatoes Milk Wine Rice Tomatoes Corn Wheat Beef Sheep TOTAL exports Year (M) ............................................................................................................................................. 1960 0.0 0.2 32.1 0.2 (0.1) 5.1 12.0 1.7 0.0 51.2 12.3% 1961 (6.3) 0.3 44.3 2.3 (0.0) 3.1 11.1 2.7 1.4 58.8 13.3% 1962 (10.5) 0.1 3.8 (5.8) (0.0) 3.5 14.9 1.8 0.8 8.7 1.9% 1963 (9.5) 0.0 (43.9) (0.7) (0.1) 3.2 13.4 1.8 2.0 (33.8) -6.8% 1964 (7.4) 0.2 (31.2) 1.3 (0.2) 4.2 12.3 1.9 1.9 (17.1) -3.2% 1965 0.1 0.2 (38.9) 2.4 (1.2) 4.7 20.3 1.1 0.6 (10.7) -1.8% 1966 0.7 0.1 (5.2) 1.3 (0.7) 5.6 10.5 4.1 2.4 18.8 3.2% 1967 (8.4) 0.9 (35.6) 0.4 (0.8) 5.6 16.4 2.3 2.6 (16.5) -2.4% 1968 (13.7) 1.0 (113.0) 0.3 (1.1) 4.8 17.7 2.3 4.3 (97.5) -13.5% 1969 (10.3) 0.7 (73.6) 2.3 (1.9) 2.3 11.6 3.7 5.8 (59.5) -7.8% 1970 (15.2) 0.8 (157.2) 2.4 (0.3) (0.0) 11.7. 3.2 5.0 (149.5) -18.9% 1971 (15.5) (0.6) (107.1) (4.0) 0.3 5.3 19.6 1.2 5.4 (95.4) -11.5% UI 1972 1.6 (0.9) (127.1) 1.8 (1.4) 6.0 12.8 2.1 6.0 (99.1) -9.1% 1973 (6.9) (0.5) (164.1) (3.3) 0.2 (1.0) (12.5) 8.2 9.3 (170.5) -13.2% 1974 0.3 (0.2) (172.2) (5.9) 3.4 (13.2) (26.8) 9.6 7.8 (197.3) -16.4% 1975 (9.7) (3.3) (32.5) (1.3) 2.3 (2.3) (17.5) 10.3 5.6 (48.4) -5.1% 1976 (1.9) (5.8) (25.8) 0.4 0.2 (1.2) (10.2) 7.0 6.3 (31.0) -3.3% 1977 (4.8) (4.7) (27.0) (1.2) (0.5) (2.0) (3.0) 19.5 5.1 (18.5) -1.9% 1978 (12.9) (7.3) 1.5 (1.8) (0.0) 0.0 (2.1) 18.0 6.9 2.3 0.2% 1979 (6.8) (5.1) (80.1) 0.3 0.5 1.2 (0.1) 21.8 6.0 (62.2) -4.4% 1980 (0.6) (4.2) (84.3) (0.1) 0.6 (4.9) (4.0) 12.6 4.6 (80.4) -5.0% 1981 (4.4) (1.4) (8.7) (1.6) 0.4 (3.9) (2.8) 16.1 1.9 (4.4) -0.3% 1982 1.0 (2.0) (17.4) (0.4) (0.2) (0.1) 1.2 8.4 2.4 (7.1) -0.5% 1983 (2.1) (1.0) (13.7) 0.2 (0.4) (2.2) 1.0 10.8 2.6 (4.7) -0.3% 1984 (1.6) (0.9) (7.0) 0.2 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.6 0.8 (2.8) -0.2% ................................................................................................................. 7--------------------------- - 66 - The picture changes a little if cumulative impacts on output are taken into account (Table 16). The positive effect on foreign exchange availability rose as high as 20 percent of export earnings in 1961 and almost 12 percent in 1966. By the end of the 1960s, however, the impact became adverse, on the order of 15 to 20 percent of export earnings. Much of this was due to the repressive impact of wine and potato price policies, however, and the estimates of protection rates and output impact should be interpreted cautiously. The short-term impact of all price interventions, including tariffs and manipulation of exchange rates, is shown in Table 17, while the long-term impact is shown in Table 18. These results broadly correspond to those noted above. Exchange rate policy accentuated the savings of foreign exchange over the period up to 1967 but weakened such savings in the 1970s. Support for the traded commodities through an undervalued exchange rate in the first period corresponded to a time of price supports for many commodities; the implicit tax implied by the overvalued escudo in the early 1970s came at a time when prices were being held down. Thus, to the extent that one aim of farm policy was to save foreign exchange, that aim was not achieved consistently. Foreign exchange was drained away just when Portugal needed more foreign currency to pay for higher-priced oil and other commodities. Both direct and indirect price policies were responsible. Table 16: Cumulative Effects on Foreign Exchange of Direct Price Interventions, Portugal, 1960-1984 (S million) ............................................................................................................................................. Additional export earnings or reduction In import costs due to price policy Proportion of total Potatoes Nilk Wine Rice Tomatoes Corn Wheat Beef Sheep TOTAL exports Year M ............................................................................................................................................. 1960 0.1 22.9 34.6 (0.0) 1.0 5.6 11.9 5.9 (0.0) 82.0 19.6% 1961 (6.3) 24.0 44.5 2.3 1.4 3.2 10.4 7.5 1.6 88.7 20.0% 1962 (10.5) 23.7 4.0 (6.6) 2.8 4.1 13.4 5.3 0.9 37.0 8.1% 1963 (9.5) 25.3 (46.6) (0.9) 3.5 3.5 11.8 5.4 2.1 (5.2) -1.1% 1964 (7.4) 26.0 (34.0) 1.3 4.9 4.4 12.5 8.4 2.6 18.7 3.4% 1965 0.1 27.7 (39.9) 2.9 7.4 4.7 21.5 8.4 0.9 33.9 5.7% 1966 0.7 27.9 (6.3) 1.5 8.7 5.9 10.6 17.4 3.4 69.6 11.7% 1967 (9.1) 28.2 (81.4) 0.4 13.4 5.9 14.8 6.9 3.5 (17.3) -2.6% 1968 (14.4) 31.0 (170.4) 0.4 13.8 5.1 15.6 6.1 4.9 (107.9) -14.9% 1969 (11.3) 31.2 (121.5) 3.3 12.2 1.7 11.2 12.9 6.7 (53.6) -7.0% 1970 (15.8) 30.2 (207.1) 3.1 10.1 (0.7) 11.2 13.4 6.0 (149.6) -18.9% 1971 (15.8) 32.7 (122.5) (4.7) 8.2 5.8 20.1 9.0 6.7 (60.4) -7.3% 0 1972 1.2 32.0 (145.8) 2.5 10.2 5.7 12.6 12.0 7.3 (62.1) -5.7% 1973 (7.4) 28.4 (200.8) (3.6) 11.7 (0.8) (30.9) 19.4 10.8 (173.1) -13.4% 1974 (0.4) 28.1 (209.8) (6.9) 8.7 (13.7) (48.0) 21.5 8.8 (211.7) -17.6% 1975 (9.9) 34.3 (37.3) (1.9) 9.4 (2.1) (60.4) 17.9 6.3 (43.7) -4.6% 1976 (2.2) 29.0 (33.7) 0.3 5.3 (1.0) (49.0) 11.3 6.8 (33.2) -3.5% 1977 (4.9) 25.1 (32.7) (1.4) 6.1 (1.7) (9.4) 32.0 5.3 18.3 1.9% 1978 (12.9) 25.0 (8.4) (2.1) 4.7 0.3 (6.1) 31.8 7.0 39.3 3.7% 1979 (6.8) - 24.4 (85.1) 0.2 3.3 1.3 (1.8) 41.3 6.3 (16.8) -1.2% 1980 (0.8) 20.2 (98.7) (0.0) 2.3 (5.0) (6.4) 26.5 4.7 (57.2) -3.6% 1981 (4.7) 18.6 (29.8) (1.9) 1.8 (3.8) (4.1) 36.3 1.7 14.2 1.1% 1982 0.9 16.9 (22.4) (0.5) 2.7 0.0 0.8 24.9 2.4 25.6 2.0% 1983 (2.5) 12.5 (30.6) 0.3 2.5 (2.1) 0.3 25.4 2.6 8.5 0.6% 1984 (1.6) 13.2 (7.2) 0.2 2.7 0.4 1.5 15.6 0.8 25.6 1.6% ............................................................................................................................................. Table 17: Short term Effects on Foreign Exchwe of Total Price Interventions. Portuget. 1960-1964 (Smillion) ....................................................................................................................................... Addittonel export earnins or reduction In import costs dae to price policy Proportion of total Potatoes Nitk wine Rice Tomatoes Corn wheat Beef Sheep TOTAL exports Tear 1960 (4.4) 0.7 158.9 0.4 (0.1) 6.0 14.6 1.7 (0.4) 177.3 42.5% 1961 (8.6) 0.7 96.2 2.6 0.0 3.1 12.9 2.7 1.1 112.6 25.4% 1962 (9.5) (0.2) (25.2) (6.5) 0.1 4.0 17.0 1.8 0.6 (17.9) -3.91 1963 (9.7) 0.4 (52.1) (0.7) (0.2) 3.2 13.3 1.9 2.0 (42.0) -6.4% 1964 (10.8) 0.6 60.0 1.5 (0.0) 4.4 14.6 2.0 1.2 73.6 13.6% 1965 1.6 (0.4) (60.5) 5.1 (3.5) 1.9 22.3 1.1 (0.1) (32.6) -5.5% 1966 1.6 (0.2) (13.4) 1.5 (0.5) 5.8 11.4 4.2 1.8 12.2 2.1% 1967 (14.3) 1.9 110.4 0.3 (0.1) 6.1 19.2 2.4 1.9 128.0 18.91 1968 (13.9) 1.5 (129.4) 0.3 (1.1) 4.8 17.7 2.3 4.3 (113.6) -15.7% 1969 (11.1) 1.5 (85.1) 1.9 (1.9) 2.5 10.7 3.8 6.2 (71.5) -9.4Z 1970 (15.5) 1.3 (168.9) 2.3 (0.4) 0.1 11.3 3.4 5.1 (161.3) -20.4% 1971 (15.9) (0.2) (111.0) (3.8) 0.1 5.2 18.9 1.4 5.6 (99.6) -12.0O 1972 1.2 (0.5) (130.4) 1.5- (1.3) 6.1 12.1 2.2 6.3 (102.9) -9.4% 1973 (7.5) 0.0 (171.7) (3.1) (0.3) (1.0) (14.3) 8.1 9.7 (180.0) -13.9% 1974 0.1 0.1 (182.9) (5.9) 3.4 (13.2) (26.8) 9.7 7.8 (207.8) -17.3% 1975 (10.0) (2.9) (36.5) (1.3) 2.2 (2.4) (17.8) 10.4 5.7 (52.5) -5.5% 1976 (2.3) (5.3) (30.7) 0.5 0.1 (1.3) (10.7) 7.0 6.4 (36.3) -3.9% 1977 (5.7) (3.6) (33.3) (0.9) (1.0) (2.4) (3.8) 19.0 5.7 (26.1) -2.6% 1978 (13.4) (6.3) (2.1) (1.4) (0.4) (0.3) (2.9) 17.6 7.3 (1.9) -0.2% 1979 (6.5) (5.4) (83.6) 0.2 0.6 1.3 0.2 22.3 5.9 (65.0) -4.6% 1980 (1.1) (3.4) (88.4) (0.0) 0.4 (5.0) (4.8) 12.3 4.9 (85.1) -5.3% 1981 (4.8) (0.6) (18.2) (1.4) 0.3 (4.0) (3.1) 15.8 2.0 (14.0) -1.1% 1982 0.6 (1.3) (22.9) (0.1) (0.3) (0.3) 0.6 8.2 2.5 (13.0) -1.0% 1983 (2.7) 0.4 (34.1) 0.2 (0.5) (2.3) 0.5 10.5 2.8 (25.3) -1.81 1984 (2.0) (0.3) (10.9) 0.2 (0.2) 0.3 1.1 3.5 1.0 (7.2) -0.5% ........................................................................................................................................ Table 18L: Cumulative Effects on Foreign Exchange of Total Price Interventions, Portugal, 1960-1984 (S million) ....................................................................................................................................... Additional export earnings or reduction in iaport costs due to price policy Proportion of total Potatoes Milk Wine Rice Tomatoes Corn Wheat Beef Sheep TOTAL exports Year M ............................................................................................................................................. 1960 0.0 0.9 201.4 1.1 (0.2) 6.4 4.5 2.4 (0.8) 215.8 51.7% 1961 (6.3) 1.0 115.8 2.4 0.0 2.9 5.0 3.6 0.9 125.3 28.3% 1962 (10.5) (0.0) (26.7) (4.4) 0.2 4.6 6.2 2.4 0.4 (27.8) -6.1% 1963 (9.6) 0.9 (68.9) (0.1) (0.2) 3.5 -4.8 2.5 2.1 (65.0) -13.1% 1964 (7.5) 1.0 88.7 1.5 (0.1) 4.4 5.4 2.8 1.3 97.4 18.0% 1965 0.1 (0.3) (55.9) 1.9 (8.4) (1.0) 7.7 1.8 (0.2) (54.3) -9.1% 1966 0.6 (0.0) (11.6) 1.5 (0.8) 5.9 5.3 6.1 2.4 9.2 1.6% 1967 (8.1) 3.6 114.7 0.8 (0.4) 6.4 7.3 3.4 2.2 129.9 19.2% 1968 (13.4) 3.6 (215.9) 0.5 (1.5) 5.1 6.4 3.2 4.9 (207.3) -28.6% 1969 (9.8) 3.5 (165.0) 1.1 (2.9) 2.2 4.4 5.4 7.6 (153.6) -20.1% 1970 (14.8) 3.2 (245.1) 1.3 (0.7) (0.5) 4.6 4.6 6.2 (241.2) -30.5% 1971 (15.5) 0.7 (138.8) (2.2) 0.2 5.6 6.5 2.1 7.1 (134.3) -16.2% 1972 1.8 0.4 (161.1) 1.0 (2.2) 6.0 4.6 3.2 7.8 (138.4) -12.7% 1973 (6.6) 1.2 (233.7) (2.8) (0.2) (0.9) (1.9) 10.1 11.6 (223.2) -17.3% 1974 0.6 1.9 (239.0) (3.9) 3.9 (13.7) (10.5) 11.7 8.8 (240.3) -20.0% 1975 (9.6) (2.0) (48.5) 0.1 2.6 (2.2) (3.6) 12.5 6.4 (44.2) -4.6% 1976 (2.0) (4.2) (48.6) 0.9 0.1 (1.1) (1.3) 8.4 7.0 (40.8) -4.3% 1977 (4.8) (2.8) (57.9) (0.6) (1.2) (2.1) (1.9) 23.0 6.3 (42.1) -4.3% 1978 (13.3) (5.6) (35.3) (0.8) (0.5) (0.1) (1.6) 21.5 7.8 (27.9) -2.6% 1979 (6.9) (5.0) (86.1) 0.7 0.7 1.4 (0.5) 28.1 6.0 (61.7) -4.3% 1980 (0.8) (2.0) (119.2) 0.3 0.5 (5.0) (4.4) 15.4 5.1 (110.1) -6.8% 1981 (4.5) 1.0 (63.8) (0.9) 0.3 (3.9) (2.6) 19.6 1.9 (52.8) -4.0% 1982 0.9 (0.5) (41.7) 0.2 (0.4) (0.2) 0.3 10.0 2.6 (28.9) -2.2% 1983 (1.9) 2.4 (104.5) 0.2 (0.6) (2.2) 0.6 13.1 2.9 (90.0) -6.3% 1984 (1.6) 0.1 (19.0) 0.2 (0.2) 0.4 0.3 4.6 1.0 (14.2) -0.9% ............................................................................................................................................. Chapter 5 THE EFFECT OF PRICE INTERVENTION ON THE GOVERNMENT BUDGET Wheat and milk have been the major items subsidized under programs designed to keep food costs low to urban consumers. Subsidies to wheat producers, and to a lesser extent to milk producers, have played an important role in farm policy, as have subsidies designed to lower fertilizer prices. Over time, however, these policies became increasingly expensive. Input subsidies were therefore eliminated in 1983, and the subsidies to wheat and milk producers were reduced. Table 19 shows the growth in expenditures on these programs over the period 1977 to 1981. The costs of commodity pricing policies grew more than 400 percent between 1977 and 1981, at which time they accounted for about half of the total government deficit. The methods used to calculate the costs of individual commodity programs are given in Annex E, and the results are shown in Supplement Tables 16A to 16D. (Table 20 shows the costs of selected commodity subsidies.) In the case of wheat, there appears to have been a net gain in government revenues up until 1973 as a result of the maintenance of consumer prices above the (landed) cost of imports. Some of this may in fact represent legitimate EPAC costs, but it is clear that, unlike corn and oilseeds, wheat was not subsidized under the Salazar regime. A clear change is evident in 1974, with a shift toward explicit consumer subsidies and fixed bread prices in the face of rising import prices. The subsidy for wheat consumers exceeded 4 esc/kg of wheat in 1980, costing over 800 million escudos. In 1982 the situation changed, and the wheat program produced revenues for the government as the implicit consumer tax exceeded the producer subsidy. Table 19 Effect of Government Price Policies on Budget Expenditure (billion escudo) Outlays on Commodity Programs Percentage of cereals milk oil- fert- Totall/ Govt. Govt. Year & prod & prod seeds iiser Expend. Deficit 1977 1.66 1.6 2.9 1.45 9.13 5.1% 72.5% 1978 2.51 2.62 2.47 2.25 12.28 5.1% 46.7% 1979 4.21 4.14 3.44 2.73 17.85 5.9% 47.1% 1980 8.57 4.91 2.37 4.76 28.61 7.1% 68.1% 1981 11.75 4.97 6.92 5.04 38.07 6.8% 54.6% Source: World Bank, Agricultural Sector Mission 1/ Total includes other outlays on non-commodity programs Table 20 Total costs of Selected Subsidy Policies, Portugal,1960-1984 (million esc(1963)) .... ... .................. ............... ........................................ ..... ..... ..... Potato Mi lk Wine Rice Tomatoes Corn Wheat Beef Sheep TOTAL Year .............................................................................................. 1960 (1.8) (13.0) (22.0) (0.2) (0.2) 10.0 69.1 (28.6) 43.6 57.0 1961 0.2 (2.1) (7.1) 0.5 (0.2) (0.1) (55.7) (5.1) 58.0 (11.4) 1962 1.4 (1.1) (4.7) (6.6) (0.2) 4.9 (0.4) (9.6) 44.3 28.0 1963 13.3 12.4 56.7 14.7 0.3 2.0 66.3 10.9 54.7 231.3 1964 13.2 11.7 58.6 14.1 0.5 6.0 (4.1) (7.7) 162.8 254.9 1965 9.9 4.9 61.5 (1.9) 0.7 (16.6) (85.6) (20.5) 144.8 97.3 1966 9.9 7.9 34.5 (1.0) 0.8 (101.3) (231.9) (0.9) 215.6 (66.5) 1967 13.5 163.2 38.0 6.9 1.3 (55.2) (26.7) (5.1) 173.2 309.1 1968 20.6 202.7 89.7 6.6 3.9 (134.1) 75.4 14.5 23.5 302.8 1969 20.2 209.8 58.9 (11.2) 10.4 (117.7) (161.8) 33.1 (29.3) 12.3 1970 13.7 199.9 51.8 9.2 19.1 (18.3) (113.6) 8.6 7.7 178.3 1971 16.9 233.5 58.5 11.7 31.1 (234.5) (188.4) (55.2) 19.1 (107.3) 1972 13.1 270.4 40.3 (9.7) 42.1 (465.3) (148.8) (79.9) (26.6) (364.4) 1973 13.4 301.1 60.7 8.4 2.1 17.8 (39.6) 27.6 (71.4) 320.2 1974 29.9 547.0 164.0 34.5 218.9 767.4 492.6 236.9 44.6 2,535.7 1975 (1.3) 791.8 (12.9) 18.3 157.8 588.0 216.4 52.0 103.4 1,913.5 1976 52.4 1,253.7 290.3 14.3 35.0 486.9 325.8 154.9 89.5 2,702.7 1977 45.6 1,001.0 137.3 40.0 5.9 462.5 215.2 46.5 (19.6) 1,934.4 1978 77.2 1,274.8 249.8 23.8 33.3 59.2 178.0 32.5 (414.2) 1,514.1 1979 61.2 1,336.4 506.9 (10.3) 61.5 263.1 385.8 (13.3) (241.5) 2,349.7 1980 103.5 1,433.0 507.6 17.3 82.9 779.0 833.6 322.3 (250.5) 3,828.5 1981 74.6 1,168.3 477.0 116.2 50.8 857.4 566.5 375.1 (39.1) 3,646.9 1982 52.9 1,054.9 344.5 7.3 28.8 57.3 (39.1) 55.9 (233.9) 1,328.6 1983 37.8 1,327.9 173.6 (8.3) 19.7 539.8 (270.3) 177.9 (279.6) 1,718.5 1984 (0.9) 520.9 (13.2) (75.7) 49.5 (414.1) (62.8) (101.8) (274.2) (372.4) .............................................................................................. - 73 - For tomatoes the situation has been somewhat different. Since domestic consumption of tomato paste is small, export and producer subsidies have represented a net cost to the Portuguese government. This cost, which amounted to over 200 million escudos in 1974, subsequently declined but with marked variability. Milk subsidies, by contrast, continued to be expensive to the government through the 1970s and reached a peak in 1980. In that year the producer subsidy was 2.25 esc/kg, while the consumer subsidy was 8.71 esc/kg. The cost of corn subsidies is also shown in the table. Up until 1973, corn imported by EPAC earned a "profit" because the domestic price was higher than the world price. Between 1973 and 1983, however, corn subsidies cost the government money. This subsidy was halted in 1983, and by 1984 the domestic price of Portuguese corn again exceeded the world price. The calculated costs of some of the other products shown in the table are more difficult to explain. The domestic prices of wine and potatoes often fell below the world price. This shows up as a budget "gain" even when there was no tax on production, consumption, or exports. This "gain" can be interpreted as the income which would have been collected through one of these taxes if it had existed. In practice, the price difference was maintained not by a tax but by a combination of marketing policies which had the effect of limiting the demand for potatoes and wine. Changes in agricultural policies are dictated chiefly by changes in the budget. General fiscal stringency can hasten policy changes which might otherwise occur only after years of debate. This appears to have happened in Portugal, where the burden of agricultural subsidies - 74 - significantly interfered with macroeconomic management in the early 1980s. The consequence was the abrupt changes of 1983, which essentially ended the programs for fertilizer and animal feed subsidies. "Bias" in Government Expenditure and Investment The relative emphasis given to agriculture can be shown by comparing the sector's share of GDP with its share of public investment and its share of government expenditures. High ratios (above 1) of expenditures on agriculture to agriculture's share of GDP, or of agricultural investment to agriculture's share of GDP, are prima facie evidence of an emphasis on agriculture, while low figures indicate a lack of emphasis on agriculture. As Table 21 shows, government investment was biased against agriculture between 1960 and 1985. Whereas agriculture's share of GDP has remained stable over the last few years at about 10 percent, the share of government investment in agriculture dropped 4 percent. On the other hand, the proportion of government expenditure going to agriculture increased steadily up to 1980, reflecting the maintenance of costly commodity programs in cereals and milk, and input subsidies for fertilizer, fuel, and mixed feed., Government expenditures on agriculture that year reached 6.7 percent of the total budget. The percentage has fallen somewhat in recent years because of cuts in those programs after 1983. The general picture, as shown both by investment and current account expenditures, is one of low priority for agriculture. The investment coefficient rose above unity briefly from 1975 to 1978, when the government invested substantially in the large collective farms that had come into existence in the South. But by 1985 the investment coefficient had slipped to 0.41, indicating the lowest priority for agriculture since Table21 Government Investment and Total Expenditure Shares in Agriculture Agriculture's share in "Bias" Coefficient GOP Government Government Investment Expenditure Year Investment Expenditure 1960 21.8% 21.3% 1.7% 0.97 0.08 1961 20.5% 11.1% 1.4% 0.54 0.07 1962 20.2% 11.2% 1.4% 0.56 0.07 1963 19.5% 14.6% 1.3% 0.75 0.07 1964 17.9% 12.2% 1.0% 0.68 0.06 1965 18.6% 12.9% 1.1% 0.70 0.06 1966 17.3% 10.4% 1.0% 0.61 0.06 1967 17.2% 13.6% 1.0% 0.79 0.06 1968 16.5% 13.6% 0.8% 0.83 0.05 --j 1969 15.8% 12.1% 0.9% 0.76 0.05 1970 15.4% 13.2% 1.0% 0.86 0.07 1971 14.3% 11.2% 0.9% 0.78 0.06 1972 13.7% 8.6% 0.8% 0.63 0.06 1973 13.8% 9.8% 0.7% 0.71 0.05 1974 13.4% 7.3% 0.6% 0.55 0.04 1975 13.5% 15.3% 0.6% 1.13 0.04 1976 12.6% 10.3% 0.6% 0.82 0.05 1977 10.9% 20.5% 4.3% 1.88 0.39 1978 11.0% 14.7% 5.0% 1.33 0.45 1979 10.9% 10.8% 5.6% 0.99 0.52 1980 9.6% 7.5% 6.7% 0.78 0.70 1981 7.9% 6.9% 6.1% 0.88 0.77 1982 9.1% 5.7% 6.1% 0.63 0.67 1983 9.2% 8.3% 5.7% 0.90 0.62 1984 11.0% 6.2% 4.5% 0.56 0.41 1985 11.0% 4.5% 4.8% 0.41 0.44 .. .. . .. . . . .. . .. . . . . . .. . .. . . . . . .................................... - 76 - 1960. The expenditure coefficient never reached parity between 1960 and 1985, peaking at 0.77 in 1981. By historical standards, however, that represented a significant shift in government spending. Between 1960 and 1976, spending on agriculture never reflected the sector's importance to GDP. Chapter 6 RESOURCE TRANSFERS AND AGRICULTURE Pricing policies are largely premised on the need to make internal transfers of resources and purchasing power within an economy. The main transfers to and from agriculture are as follows: (i) transfers to agriculture of public funds through price support programs; (ii) transfers to agriculture of public investment funds through structural policies; (iii) transfers to agriculture of private capital from nonfarm sources; (iv) transfers from agriculture of tax and tariff revenues; (v) transfers from agriculture of savings of farm families; (vi) transfers from agriculture of labor to the nonfarm sector; and (vii) transfers from agriculture of land for use in the nonfarm sector. The difference between (i) and (iv) is the net cost of farm programs; (ii) is public investment in agriculture; (iii) and (v) together indicate the net capital transfer in the private sector--that is, whether agriculture is a net savings sector or a net investing sector. Items (vi) and (vii) are the usual resource flows out of agriculture--the transfer of labor to the nonfarm sector and the transfer of land to the urban sector. Government investment can increase the amount of land available for agriculture and thus represent a revenue transfer, just as labor can leave - 78 - agriculture to go abroad, thus benefiting the balance of payments through remittances but not adding to the domestic labor supply in the non- agricultural sector. The two most influential transfers in policy terms are the transfers of investment funds to agriculture and the transfers of labor out of agriculture. Transfers through Price Policies Transfers to agriculture by means of price policies between 1960 and 1984 can be estimated from the data collected on the nine commodities.1 Transfers have generally been positive for milk, rice, tomatoes, corn, wheat, beef, and sheep. However, negative transfers for potatoes and wine, due to domestic prices that were lower than world market prices, have generally outweighed positive transfers. The effect of changes in price policies over time can be seen in Table 22. Milk policy generated significant transfers to producers during the period 1967-83, while transfers to tomato producers were particularly high in 1974 and 1975. Wheat producers benefited from 1960 onwards, although transfers to wheat declined notably after 1971 and became negative during the years 1973-75. Corn producers benefited, while transfers to beef and sheep producers increased between 1960 and 1980, and then fell. Table 23 shows that total price intervention had similar effects, but that the magnitude differed somewhat. Transfers to agriculture prior to 1973 were about twice as large if nonagricultural price policies (not shown) are taken into account. By 1974, indirect price policies had increased the transfers out of agriculture for most products. That is, the 1/ The method is given in Annex G, and the results are reported in Tables 22 and 23, and Supplement Tables 31 and 32. Tabte 22: Transfers due to Direct Price Poticies, Setected Coumodities, Portugal, 1960-1984 ittion esc(1963) Year Potatbes Milk Wine Rice Tomatoes ' - Corn Uheat Seef Sheep TOTAL 1960 (2) (13) (2) 8 (0) 303 489 198 40 1,021 1961 0 (2) (1) 18 (0) 131 421 293 101 961 1962 1 (1) (1) (242) (0) 151 609 340 82 940 1963 13 12 8 (1) 0 202 654 404 163 1.457 1964 13 12 10 37 0 198 440 211. 225 1,145 1965 10 5 9 80 1 312 850 231 185 1,681 1966 10 8 4 52 1 272 366 415 324 1,451 1967 13 162 4 30 1 258 685 491 301 1,945 1968 20 195. 14 55 4 258 940 681 267 2.432 1969 20 204 10 148 10 248 607 863 354 2,464 1970 13 194 7 136 19 92 546 718 305 2,029 1971 16 93 8 (52) 29 290 1,045 573 361 2,364 1972 13 109 7 124 41 340 600 549 348 2,131 1973 13 137 8 (71) 2 17 (106) 1,188 469 1,655 1974 28 216 25 (189) 204 (236) (305) 1,178 442 1,362 1975 (1) 81 (1) (47) 146 242 (120) 1,712 418 2,430 1976 47 130 35 12 32 224 179 1,658 511 2,827 1977 41 94 15 (22) -5 273 90 1,653 443 2.591 1978 70 82 32 (14) 30 271 130 1,687 346 2,634 1979 52 88 63 32 53 188 177 1,734 366 2,752 1980 94 267 78 84 75 236 339 2,018 379 3,570 1981 67 313 62 (57) 46 165 164 1,724 180. 2,664 1982 48 150 41 11 26 244 259 1,100 138 2,018 1983 34 369 23 58 18 307 237 1,683 290 3,017 1984 (1) 12 (2) 67 44 289 345 791 45 1,590 ......................................................................... Table 23: Transfers due to Total Price Interventions, Selected Comnodities, Portugal, 1960-1984 million esc(1963) Year Potatoes Milk Wine Rice Tomatoes Corn Wheat Beef Sheep TOTAL ......................................................................... 1960 216 38 410 64 4 395 620 334 72 2,153 1961 168 49 321 68 3 224 508 401 106 1.848 1962 120 47 351 (190) 5 227 708 467 125 1,860 1963 5 58 (24) (4) (0) 196 648 486 236 1,601 1964 200 58 509 95 15 304 546 360 238 2,326 1965 175 56 407 114 20 384 955 415 215 2,741 1966 154 55 215 84 19 341 407 586 366 2,227 1967 205 207 438 79 46 364 812 655 325 3,132 1968 22 241 65 56 7 262 941 785 337 2,716 1969 (95) 247 (202) 121 (8) 205 562 953 491 2,274 1970 (17) 238 (32) 127 15 81 530 837 391 2,170 1971 (28) 131 (60) (63) 24 274 1,013 659 456 2,407 c0 1972 (28) 144 (8) 114 37 329 574 644 469 2,274 0 1973 (71) 169 (204) (92) (12) (14) (158) 1,239 607 1,464 1974 2 261 (121) (200) 197 (262) (332) 1,243 450 1,238 1975 (78) 132 (91) (61) 131 213 (163) 1,788 422 2,293 1976 (79) 176 (190) 0 19 197 136 1,697 511 2,468 1977 (321) 141 (480) (57) (40) 197 50 1,623 543 1,656 1978 (115) 128 (726) (59) (2) 206 88 1,684 466 1,671 1979 144 150 310 48 61 212 193 1,896 372 3,386 1980 (84) 348 (428) 51 59 179 280 2,018 502 2,923 1981 (56) 404 (467) (87) 33 122 129 1,724 225 2,026 1982 (191) 240 (548) (31) (8) 190 200 1,010 209 1,072 1983 (195) 485 (464) 25 (20) 230 180 1,683 444 2,368 1984 (264) 109 (311) 28 8 207 264 783 189 1,013 ......................................................................... - 81 - exchange rate effect and the price policy effect reinforced each other. Since 1981, nonagricultural price policies have dampened transfers into agriculture. Non-Price Transfers to Agriculture Table 24 shows that nonprice transfers, such as public investment, were at reasonable levels in the 1960s and early 1970s, but that they then rose substantially in 1975. As the table shows, total price transfers and total price and nonprice transfers into agriculture during the period under study were positive. Another way of looking at transfers is to look at government expenditures for agriculture, both current and investment, between 1960 and 1983 (see Table 25). This table shows that there was comparatively little expenditure for agricultural research and extension. Overall public investment in agriculture has varied significantly since the 1974 Revolution, but the general tendency has been a decrease in real investment. Historically, public agricultural investment has been concentrated in irrigation schemes. Table 24: Transfers into and out of Agriculture due to Price and Non-price Policies, Portugal, 1960-1984 (milion Esc (1963>) ............................................................................................... ............Non-Price Transfers.............. Price transfers Total of price Total Transfers Public InResearch Credit Social and non-price Percent of GDPa Vear vestment and ExtenSubsidies Total Security Direct Total Direct Total Direct(%) Total() ............................................................................................ 1960 659 40 1 700 NA 1,021 2,153 1,721 2,853 10.4% 17.3% 1961 460 42 1 503 NA 961 1,848 1,464 2,351 9.1% 14.5% 1962 519 49 1 570 NA 940 1,860 1,510 2,430 8.8% 14.2% 1963 727 45 1 773 NA 1,457 1,601 2,230 2,374 12.9% 13.7% 1964 627 40 1 668 NA 1,145 2,326 1,813 2,993 10.6% 17.5% 1965 643 41 1 685 NA 1,681 2,741 2,367 3,427 12.4% 18.0% 1966 604 60 2 665 NA 1,451 2,227 2,117 2,893 11.6% 15.8% 1967 761 93 1 856 NA 1,945 3,132 2,801 3,988 14.2% 20.2% 1968 738 72 NA 810 NA 2,432 2,716 3,242 3,525 16.0% 17.4% 1969 796 82 5 882 NA 2,464 2,274 3,346 3,156 16.6% 15.7% 1970 885 91 5 981 NA 2,029 2,170 3,010 3,150 14.0% 14.6% 1971 824 67 4 896 NA 2,364 2,407 3,259 3,303 15.3% 15.5% 1972 787 90 4 881 NA 2,131 2,274 3,012 3,155 13.7% 14.4% 1973 810 86 4 899 NA 1,655 1,464 2,555 2,363 10.3% 9.5% 1974 660 71 NA 730 NA 1,362 1,238 2,093 1,969 8.6% 8.1% 1975 1,377 62 NA 1,440 NA 2,430 2,293 3,870 3,732 16.6% 16.0% 1976 1,182 112 NA 1,294 NA 2,827 2,468 4,121 3,762 17.8% 16.3% 1977 2,076 144 NA 2,220 1,990 2,591 1,656 4,810 3,876 22.8% 18.4% 1978 2,065 124 NA 2,189 2,201 2,634 1,671 4,823 3,859 22.1% 17.7% 1979 1,788 122 NA 1,910 2,494 2,752 3,386 4,663 5,297 20.5% 23.3% 1980 1,744 144 4 1,891 3,588 3,570 2,923 5,462 4,814 26.1% 23.0% 1981 1,697 94 20 1,811 3,559 2,664 2,026 4,475 3,836 26.4% 22.7% 1982 1,730 88 55 1,873 3,755 2,018 1,072 3,891 2,945 19.3% 14.6% 1983 1,979 86 103 2,169 3,705 3,017 2,368 5,185 4,537 26.5% 23.2% 1984 1,508 52 NA 1,561 2,768 1,590 1,013 3,150 2,574 14.9% 12.2% SOURCE: Annex F Table 25: Public Expenditure on Investment in Agriculture, Portugal, 1960-1983 (mitlion Esc (1963)) .............................................................................. Development Research Extension Total Year Investment Investment Investment Investment ..............................----------------*---*--.................................................... 1960 455.6 13.4 NA NA 1961 255.4 11.4 NA NA 1962 301.4 14.5 NA NA 1963 509.9 11.4 NA NA 1964 . 453.5 11.4 NA NA 1965 440.3 11.7 NA NA 1966 401.7 26.8 NA NA 1967 530.3 27.6 NA NA 1968 590.4 30.8 2.7 623.8 1969 586.6 32.3 6.4 625.4 1970 598.3 35.7 6.6 640.6 1971 569.8 14.9 5.1 589.8 1972 528.5 21.6 25.2 575.2 1973 552.3 19.5 23.8 595.6 1974 415.8 19.3 18.2 453.4 1975 1,093.0 18.4 NA NA 1976 826.3 43.9 19.3 889.4 1977 1,652.8 55.7 27.9 1,736.3 1978 1,303.1 47.5 32.3 1,382.8 1979 977.3 34.2 25.9 1,037.5 1980 804.5 41.6 36.0 882.1 1981 706.9 14.7 16.6 738.1 1982 641.5 30.5 13.4 685.4 1983 850.8 15.0 20.9 886.7 .................................................... SOURCE: Annex F Chapter 7 THE EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL PRICING POLICIES ON INCOME DISTRIBUTION Income growth within Portugal's agricultural sector varied significantly between the mid-1950s and the mid-1960s. From 1956 to 1964, real farm income increased at a modest rate of about 2 percent per year, due primarily to labor productivity gains. This period marked the widespread introduction of mechanization, especially in the South. From the mid-1960s to the eve of the Revolution, farm income grew at an annual rate of almost 8 percent. That reflected direct government intervention in prices, particularly output prices. After the Revolution, however, growth of real farm income slowed to 1 percent annually, despite high levels of protection for inputs and outputs. These subsidies were, in effect, offset by high levels of inflation and rapid deterioration in rural/urban terms of trade. To trace the impact of pricing policies on income in the agricultural sector, we selected five types of farms representative of the three regions: North small-scale, North medium-scale, Central medium-scale, Central large-scale, and South large-scale. Each type was constructed on the basis of the 1979 Agricultural Census and average crop combinations suggested by farm management data. The characteristics and relative importance of these farm types are summarized in Table 26. According to estimates of real value added presented in Table 27, farms in northern and southern Portugal experienced a decrease in real income from 1961 through 1965, a period in which producer prices remained stable. The following period up until the Revolution witnessed relative - 85 - Table 26: Main Characteristics of Representative Portuguese Farms used in the Analysis North (1) Center (2) South (3) .... .............................. ............................. ........... Small-scale Medium-scaLe Medium-scale Large-scale Large-scale farm farm farm farm farm .................................................................................................. % of number of farms in the region 40% 6% 12% 2% 7% % of the total agricultural area in the region 43% 20% 16% 41% 34% Type of farm Familial Familial Familial Commercial Commercial Total area (ha) 1.4 6.7 6.9 310 335 Irrigated area (ha) 0.9 3.5 1.3 50 3 Number of parcels 4 6 8 5 4 AWU/ha (4) 1.6 0.5 0.25 0.04 0.02 main outputs milk, beef, milk, beef, rice, tomato, wheat, rice, wheat, beef, corn, wine, corn, wine, corn, beef, tomato, corn, sheep, olive potatoes potatoes vegetabLes beef, forest oil, forest Off-farm income 50% 25% 28% as % of total income Main off-farm industry industry agriculture activity building ............................................................................... (1) "Entre-Douro a Minho" region (2) "Ribatejou region (3) "Alentejo" region (4) AnnuaL work units per hectare Source: INE: 1979 Portuguese Farm Census and authors calculations - 86 - iable 27: Evotution of income for Representative Poru;guese Farms, 1961-1983 (1) North Center South Small-scale Medium-scale Medium-scale Large-scale Large-scale Years farm farm farm farm farm "1961" 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 "1965" 85.2 75.7 112.7 104.6 84.1 "1973" 152.6 142.9 193.4 179.2 . 141.9 "1980" 174.9 172.5 229.1 232.1 140.9 "1983" 151.7 146.8 230.2 236.9 156.1 Average Rate of Growth (% per year) (2) "1961"-11965" -3.9 -6.7 3.3 1.1 -4.2 "1965"-"1973" 7.6 8.3 7.0 7.0 6.8 "19731..1980". 2.0 2.7 2.5 3.8 *0.1 "1980-"11983" -4.6 -5.2 0.2 0.7 3.5 "1961"-"1983" 2.1 2.8 4.3 4.4 2.3 (1) Index based on the average value-added for each farm type deflated by the appropriate CPI for that farA "1961" is the average of 1960-1962:other years should be interpreted in a similar fashion. (2) Based on the indices in the first half of the table. Source: Annex H - 87 - large support levels and moderate inflation, which resulted in income gains of about 7 to 8 percent for all the representative farms. Differences due to land reform are discernible after 1974. Northern and central region farms increased their income by 2 to 4 percent between 1973 and 1980, but the large-scale southern farm--the major target of land reform--experienced an income loss. The high inflation of the early 1980s caused income levels to drop in the North, while central-region farms saw their real income remain nearly constant. Farms in the South enjoyed an increase in real income between 1980 and 1983, due primarily to good harvests. The Effects of Policies on Income Estimates of the effects of direct price policies on agricultural commodities reveal that the government has supported both output and input prices, except for wine and potatoes. Exchange rate policies tended to tax cereal and tomato producers after 1965, while livestock and dairy producers received moderate support. The impacts of output and input price policies and exchange rate policy ranged from a 253 percent tax on potatoes to a 175 percent subsidy for beef between 1960 and 1984 (Table 28). These results suggest that price supports for farm outputs and restrictions on agricultural imports were the chief methods used to encourage agriculture. Large-scale farms in both the central and southern regions were the primary recipients of government aid. Although large southern farms experienced a decrease in real income over the period, the government consistently provided strong price support for their products (Table 29). Large farms in the central region obtained larger incomes with less direct government intervention, but medium-size farms in the region realized relatively little benefit from government policies. In the North, - 88 - Table 28: Price Policy Effects on the Main Port6guese Agricultural Comodities, 1960-1984, (percent) (1) Total Direct price indirect policy policy effects policy effects .......................... effects output input Region Comodities % prices % prices % % North Potato 27.7 0.0 4.9 22.8 Milk 33.7 16.3 2.6 14.8 Wine -1.5 0.0 0.5 -2.0 Center Rice 3.2 -3.7 7.6 -0.8 Tomatoes 10.9 10.9 1.6 -1.5 Corn 34.4 29.9 5.5 -1.1 South Wheat 63.1 54.9 11.7 -3.5 Beef 169.6 153.8 5.4 10.5 Sheep 89.8 58.7 8.0 23.1 (1) Plus (+) means a subsidy and minus (-) a tax. Figures are percent of the average real value added (1980 esc) for each period. Source: Annex I -89 - Table 29: Estimated Effects of Price Policies on ReaL Farm Income of Representative Farms (1) Direct Indirect Total Policy Effects (2) price price Representative effects effects farms Periods 1,000 Esc(1980) Percent (3) Percent (3) Percent (3) 1960-64 10.34 9.3% 0.3% 9.0% SmaLL-scaLe 1965-73 0.44 0.3% -1.0% 1.3% farm 1974-75 14.28 7.6% -0.5% 8.2% (North) 1976-84 6.79 3.2% -0.0% 3.2% 1960-84 5.81 3.3% -0.4% 3.7% 1960-64 33.82 14.4% 3.0% 11.4% Medium-scaLe 1965-73 10.84 3.0% 1.7% 1.3% farm 1974-75 38.44 10.5% 1.0% 9.5% (North) 1976-84 29.22 6.4% 3.3% 3.1% 1960-84 24.26 6.5% 2.5% 4.0% 1960-64 29.16 9.7% 2.7% 7.0% Medium-scale 1965-73 3.23 0.7% -0.5% 1.2% farm 1974-75 36.65 6.0% -0.0% 6.1% (Center) 1976-84 -10.63 -1.5% -3.3% 1.9% 1960-84 6.10 1.1% -1.5% 2.6% 1960-64 674.65 36.5% 19.2% 17.3% Large-scale 1965-73 718.89 26.5% 24.4% 2.1% farm 1974-75 488.41 12.8% 7.0% 5.8% (Center) 1976-84 594.83 12.8% 14.0% -1.2% 1960-84 646.94 19.5% 17.0% 2.5% 1960-64 758.85 136.5% 110.3% 26.2% Large-scale 1965-73 831.72 126.1% 121.1% 5.0% farm 1974-75 -122.83 -5.5% -10.0% 4.5% (South) 1976-84 354.50 25.7% 26.6% -0.9% 1960-84 568.98 55.5% 51.2% 4.4% Notes: (1) Plus (+) means a subsidy and minus (-) a tax. (2) Deflated by the calculated CPI for each farm group. (3) Percent of the actual average real income of each farm and period. - 90 - the level of subsidization was low. Medium-size farms in the North benefited more from government assistance than small-scale farms because of different farming methods. Income transfers caused by direct and indirect price policies were greater for large-scale farms than for small ones. While government policies resulted in an annual average transfer of about 7,000 escudos to small farms in the North, large-scale southern farms received 687,000 escudos, or nearly 100 times as much. The income transfer per annual worker was also substantially greater for large farms (Table 30). In terms of income transfer per hectare, however, it was small-scale farms in the North that had the largest transfer. Table 31 contains indexes showing the differences in real income with and without price policies. Although the absence of data on absolute income levels does not permit a cross-regional comparison, the table provides dramatic evidence of how Portugal's agricultural policies have assisted large southern farms. Price Policy Effects on Consumers Government policies intended to have an effect on the agricultural prices received by producers also have effects on consumers. Table 32, a comparison of CPIs, summarizes the potential effects. While price policies benefited producers, they had a negative impact on consumers. All social groups paid more for food because of government pricing policies. These higher costs ranged from 1 to 12 percent. The data indicate that nonagricultural rural labor paid more than other groups because of the policies. (These data assume that no food subsidies for consumers were in existence.) -91- Table 30: Income Transfers as a Result of Direct and Indirect Price Policies Real Value of Income Transfers (1) thousand esc(1980) per per hectare of per annual (2) farm total area worker unit Smatt-scale farms (North) 5.8 4.2 2.6 Medium-scale farms (North) 24.3 3.6 7.2 Medium-scate farms (Center) 6.1 0.9 3.5 Large-scale farms (Center) 646.9 2.1 52.2 Large-scale farms (South) 569.0 1.7 84.9 (1) Plus (+) means a subsidy and minus (-) a tax (2) Based on the average labor use over the period. Source: Table 26 and Annex H Table 31: Income Index of Representative Portuguese Farms with and without Price Policies (1) Small-scale Medium-scaLe Medium-scale Large-scale Large-scale farm (North) farm (North) farm (Center) farm (Center) farm (South) with without with without with without with without with without Years (2) policies policies poticies policies policies policies policies policies policies policies "1961" 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 "1965" 85 78 76 65 113 105 105 70 82 23 "1973" 153 153 143 143 193 194 179 167 129 120 "1980" 175 166 173 159 229 227 232 200 120 92 "1983" 152 155 147 147 230 242 237 217 144 115 (1) Index based on the average value added for each farm type deflated by the appropriate CPI. (2) "1961" is the average deflated value added for the years 1960-1962: other years should be interpreted in a similar fashion. (3) The calculations for the "without policies" case are based on the assumption that the government repoved.att the price policies after 1962, and did not reintroduce them thereafter. Source: Annex H - 93 - Table 3Z: Rural and Urban Income Distribution Effects of Farm Price Policies: Effect on calculated CPI for seLtect dIA*uf Effects of price policy on Effects of price policy on urban rural labor CPI (percent) (2) income group CPI (percent) (2) Non-agricultural Farm Labor tabor Low-income Nediun-income High-income Periods Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total 1960-64 -0.3% 3.2% -2.2% 0.9% -0.3% 3.1% -0.3% 3.2% -0.8% 5.7% 1965-73 -0.5% -2.2% -3.0% -4.6% -0.5% -2.2% -0.5% -2.2% -1.3% 0.0% 1974-75 -0.5% 3.0% -0.8% 2.8% -0.3% 3.3% -0.4% 3.2% -1.2% 5.5% 1976-84 -0.8% -2.5% -2.8% -4.0% -0.6% -2.3% -0.6% -2.3% -1.8% -0.2% 1960-84 -0.7% -1.8% -2.7% -3.5% -0.6% -1.6% -0.6% -1.6% -1.6% 0.5% (1) Plus (+) represents a positive benefit -- through a reduction in the CPI, and a minus (-) a negative impact on income through an increase in the CPI. (2) Percent of the average of each group's CPI for the period. Source: Annex G Chapter 8 POLICY INTERVENTION AND PRICE STABILITY One of the objectives of Portugal's pricing policies has been to protect the country's farmers from unexpected oscillations in world prices. In general, Portugal has succeeded in doing so. In terms of the variance, the coefficient of variation (c.v.), and the estimated z statistic, the intervention prices of most agricultural commodities have been more stable than social prices (Table 33). Exchange rate policy, in particular, seems to have had a strong stabilizing effect on prices. The one exception to the general pattern was livestock, whose domestic prices varied more than world prices. The relative instability of livestock prices was probably a consequence of less effective price support mechanisms. The government had little success in trying to set the prices of meat products after 1970 because of rising consumer demand. While cereal prices remained stable between 1960 and 1984, wine and potato prices did not. Again, government policies on wine and potato prices were inadequate to stabilize prices because of large oscillations in supply from year to year. Thus, the domestic prices of commodities that received direct support tended to be more stable than world prices. Table 33 Impact of Policy interventions on Price Stability Potatoes RP RPV RPW* Rice RP RPW RPW* Wheat RP RPU RPU* variance 0.16 0.54 0.63 variance 0.04 0.31 0.34 variance 0.14 0.14 0.17 mean 1.54 2.30 2.36 mean 2.82 2.85 2.90 mean 2.60 1.93 1.99 c.v. 0.26 0.32 0.34 c.v. 0.07 0.20 0.20 c.v. 0.15 0.19 0.21 z statistic 0.02 0.04 0.06 z statistic 0.01 -0.01 0.03 z statistic -0.03 -0.01 0.02 Milk RP RPU RPU* Tomatoes RP RPW RPW* Beef RP RPU RPU* variance 0.13 0.12 0.12 variance 0.01 0.00 0.00 variance 33.64 8.68 14.83 mean 2.56 2.38 2.38 mean 0.52 0.47 0.48 mean 29.44 17.51 18.16 c.v. 0.14 0.14 0.14 c.v. 0.14 0.12 0.11 c.v. 0.20 0.17 0.21 z statistic 0.03 -0.00 0.00 z statistic *0.00 -0.00 0.01 z statistic 0.62 0.17 0.42 Wine RP RPU RPU* Corn RP RPU RPU* Sheep RP RPU RPU* variance 1.36 2.57 3.44 variance 0.05 0.08 0.07 variance 350.04 156.12 468.50 mean 3.54 4.58 4.84 mean 2.11 1.72 1.74 mean 69.72 56.59 57.40 c.v. 0.33 0.35 0.38 c.v. 0.11 0.16 0.15 c.v. 0.27 0.22 0.23 z statistic 0.00 0.01 0.05 z statistic -0.00 -0.00 0.02 z statistic 9.81 0.56 0.53 RP is the price relative to non-agricultural prices RPW Is the relative price In the absence of direct interventions RPU* Is the relative price in the absence of direct and indirect interventions Chapter 9 THE DETERMINANTS OF POLICY ON AGRICULTURAL PRICES It is possible with regression techniques to empirically evaluate the relative importance of different factors on government pricing policies. Here, we attempt to explain variations in intervention prices and in different measures of protection by reference to a set of independent variables--the inflation-adjusted world price, export earnings, and rate of inflation. The functions estimate the relative influence of these independent factors on the policymaking process. The dependent variables in the model are as follows: 1. Producer price, deflated INVp = P/PNA 2. Nominal rate of protection NPRd = (P-PW)/PW (direct) 3. Nominal rate of protection NPRt = P/PNA - P*PNA* (total) P /PNA 4. Nominal rate of protection NPRag =P/PNA - P/PNA (agriculture) P /PNA 5. Nominal rate of protection NPRs = P/PNA - PW/PWNA (sector) PW/PWNA The independent variables in the model are as follows: 6. Border price, deflated PW/PNA 7. Export earnings IMC 8. CPI (1963 = 100) CPI Table 34 shows the regression results. Except for beef and wheat, the real world price of an agricultural commodity was the strongest predictor of the intervention price. In most cases, however, the - 97 - coefficient was less that one, which suggests that other factors also influenced the intervention price. The results suggest that the rate of inflation and export earnings had little explanatory power. The regression functions that use nominal protection measures were generally weak, with low R-squared levels. As expected, protection varied negatively in most cases with world price. That is, a decrease in the world price resulted in an increase in protection. Overall, the results suggest a less than perfect relationship between the three predictor variables and the five dependent variables. However, a closer look at the price-setting process throws light on this lack of explanatory power. For many cereals and for dairy products, producer prices were set with little reference to world prices or expected rates of inflation. As a heavy importer of food cereals and feedgrains, Portugal has not had the liberty to choose between foreign and domestic supplies to meet consumption needs. Thus, world prices, export earnings, and inflation rates have not been taken into account. In fact, these variables might better explain intervention in consumer prices. - 98 - TabLe 34 ResuLts of Price PoLicy Regressions, Pcrtugal Ncr:nern Prcdtcts ..................................--------------.--------------*.-----.-------**-----------.---------- ..........Dependant VariabLe . Comodity Independant Variable ReaL Price NPRd NPRt NPRat NPRs POTATOES Constant 0.977 0.164 0.156 0.179 0.152 World Price 0.125 -0.261 * -0.246 * *0.256 * -0.251 * Foreign Exchange 0.001 0.004 0.008 0.004 0.009 Inflation 0.023 * 0.012 * 0.009 * 0.009 * 0.011 * t-square 0.49 0.61 0.53 0.57 0.56 MILK Constant 0.300 0.183 0.219 0.183 0.230 World Price 0.847 * -0.093 -0.084 *0.093 -0.07S Foreign Exchange 0.006 * 0.003 * 0.001 0.003 * 0.001 Inflation -0.001 0.000 0.001 0.000 -0.001 R-square 0.82 0.35 0.22 0.35 0.19 WINE Constant 1.976 0.244 0.346 0.280 0.345 World Price 0.298 -0.103 * -0.100 * -0.094 * -0.110 Foreign Exchange -0.001 0.000 *0.002 -0.001 -0.001 Inflation 0.025 0.004 0.000 -0.001 0.003 R-square 0.27 0.36 0.50 0.45 0.44 * coefficient is significant at the 5 percent LeveL na regression not appropriate due to construction of variabLes - 99 - Table 34 ResuLts of Price Policy Regressions, Port'ugaL Southern Products ......................Dependant variable................... Comiodity Independant Variable Real Price NPRd NPRt NPRat NPRs WHEAT Constant 2.892 1.621 1.577 1.595 1.528 World Price 0.016 *0.538 * -0.464 * -0.489 * -0.479 * Foreign Exchange 0.017 *0.004 0.002 0.001 0.006 Inflation *0.032 * -0.017 * -0.028 * *0.024 * -0.020 * R-square 0.77 0.84 0.78 0.80 0.81 BEEF Constant 20.901 2.001 1.726 1.825 1.951 World Price -0.086 * *0.105 * *0.075 * -0.086 * -0.092 * Foreign Exchange 0.131 * 0.006 0.002 0.003 0.002 Inflation 0.328 0.025 * 0.015 * 0.018 * 0.025 * R-square 0.79 0.81 0.57 C.41 0.76 SHEEP Constant -13.790 -0.031 -0.127 -0.132 0.067 World Price 1.590 0.006 * 0.007 * 0.006 * 0.006 * Foreign Exchange -0.100 -0.001 0.001 0.001 -0.003 * Inflation -0.110 -0.003 -0.007 *0.003 -0.003 R-square 0.95 0.32 0.22 0.24 0.47 coefficient is significant at the 5 percent level - 100 - Tabie 34 Results of Price Policy Regressions, Portugal Central Products ......................Dependant Variable....................... Con mdfty independent Variable Real Price NPRd NPRt NPRat NPRs RICE Constant 2.826 0.892 0.868 0.915 0.859 World Price 0.051 -0.288 * -0.263 * -0.279 * -0.271 * Foreign Exchange -0.025 -0.006 0.001 -0.004 *0.001 Inflation -0.012 * -0.004 * *0.010 * 0.009 * *0.006 * R-square 0.31 0.86 0.77 . 0.81 0.82 TOMATOES Constant 0.191 0.518 0.510 0.589 0.444 world Price 0.656 * -0.967 -0.673 -0.917 *0.676 Foreign Exchange 0.000 -0.001 -0.003 *0.002 -0.002 Inflation 0.004 * 0.007 0.004 0.002 0.007 R-square 0.31 0.34 0.05 0.08 0.16 CCAN Constant 2.016 1.154 1.106 1.117 1.146 World Price 0.192 *0.471 * -0.361 * -0.400 0 *0.414 * Foreign Exchange -0.006 - *0.003 * -0.005 * -0.004 * .0.005 * Inflation 0.003 0.004 -0.002 -0.003 0.003 R-square 0.37 0.64 0.49 0.53 0.53 ...................................................................... coefficient is significant at tte 5 porcent level Chapter 10 PHASES OF INTERVENTION AND THE EXPERIENCE WITH REFORM Antonio Salazar consolidated his political power in Portugal in 1932 and soon launched a program of "enforced harmony" that resulted in a corporatist structure which lasted nearly fifty years. The extent to which government-sponsored and controlled organizations penetrated all levels of society cannot be overemphasized. In Morrison's words, "economic life was compartmentalized and directed by central government" (1981, p.3) through a network of national and local institutions. At the beginning of the so- called Estado Novo in the early 1930s, Portugal was predominantly an agricultural economy, but the importance of agriculture waned substantially over the next thirty years. Table 35 shows the evolution of Portuguese agriculture between 1960 and 1986. Agricultural Policy Before 1960 From its beginnings, the Salazar regime intervened heavily in the agriculture of the South to assure harmony between workers and landowners and to hold down the price of food. As Minister of Finance in 1929, Salazar launched a "wheat campaign," a program designed to expand wheat production and assure national food self-sufficiency. Farmers were paid guaranteed prices for their wheat; they were also paid a subsidy to bring new lands into production. The government also subsidized farmers' purchases of fertilizers and selected seeds and offered preferential credit to both landowners and landless farmers. The size of Portugal's wheat area, according to Oliveira Baptista (1984), doubled from 1930 to 1959. Table 35 Different phases of agricultural policy making in Portugal, 1960-86. Agricultural Political Macroeconomic World Market Price Phases Factors Factors Factors Factors Policy 1960-64 a) mechanization a) corporatist a) stable exchange a) stable prices a) support for b) high off-farm control rate wheat out-migration b) comparative b) low inflation b) low prices for c) public investment stability c) growth other products in irrigation 1965-73 a) critical labor a) industrialista a) high inflation a) world prices a) increased support for shortage movement b) balance of payment explode cereals, livestock b) increasing demand b) African wars problems for food - c) tensions in c) oil crisis c) intensive live- dictatorship stock technologies 1974-76 a) land occupations a) political a) high inflation a) high world a) subsidized credit b) returning emigrants instability b) large wage prices in South c) high food demand b) left-wing increases b) export subsidies government c) heavy public on tomatoes c) large consumer subsidies 1977-83 a) Land Reform a) succession of a) IMF Intervention a) world prices a) extensive price instituted governments: b) large trade recede controls at high b) marketing boards center-teft and deficit support levels strengthened center-right c) large budget b) large consumer c) growth of milk deficit subsidies production in North 1983-86 a) liberalization of a) center-left a) high inflation a) low world a) removal of input markets begins government b) strong dollar prices subsidies b) negotiations for b) austerity c) large trade b) increase in output EC entry program deficit prices c) agricultural growth c) reduction in consumer subsidies ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------................... - 103 - Yet even in the early 1930s, wheat production exceeded consumption, and many farmers were unable to sell at the established price for lack of a marketing infrastructure. Thus, in 1932 a National Federation of Wheat Producers (FNPT) was established by law and given a monopoly over wheat marketing. According to Oliveira Baptista, the wheat campaign appeased the large landholders in the Alentejo, who had suffered under the consumer- oriented policies of the Republic and had long sought state intervention. However, the campaign also had benefits for many rural workers. Since latifundia production was highly labor-intensive, many landowners preferred to lease their least valuable land to rural workers, who then became known as-seareiros. The seareiros employed mostly family labor and gave a fifth of their annual production to the landowner as rent. All of the incentives to grow wheat that had been granted to large landowners, including production credit, were also granted to the seareiros. At the end of the 1930s the agricultural panorama in the South included largeholders who cultivated prime lands, using labor-intensive technologies; seareiros, who rented mostly marginal lands; independent smallholders; and large numbers of very poor and landless rural laborers. Portugal's Second National Agricultural Development Plan (1958) brought the country's landed interests into direct conflict with Portugal's industrialists, who were calling for the restructuring of Portuguese agriculture through government programs of land consolidation in the North and "moderate" expropriation of farms in the South. The goal of the industrialists was to reduce the proportion of the population (40 percent) working in agriculture while promoting "economically viable" family farms whose purchasing power would be sufficient to increase internal demand for - 104 - domestic industrial products. The plan involved significant government investment in irrigation programs and a system of price incentives to induce farmers to reduce cereal production. By the early years of the 1960s, increases in domestic industrial employment and job opportunities in other industrialized countries in Europe began to draw agricultural workers away from the South. The cost of farm labor in the region increased significantly, and rural workers became less compliant. Meanwhile, Portugal began to become embroiled in wars of independence with its colonies in Africa, first in Angola, then in Guinea Bissau and Mozambique. Thousands of rural Portuguese were drafted into the military and sent to the colonies, while thousands of others fled the country to avoid conscription. Ferreira and Marshall (1986, p.20) estimate that 1.25 million Portuguese left Portugal between 1960 and 1972. By the latter year, only 10 percent of Portugal's agricultural work force was under thirty-five years of age. As a result of this draining away of rural labor, the agricultural farming population decreased by 31 percent throughout the 1960s, with the greatest reduction in the South. Agricultural production during the decade grew only 1.5 percent. At the same time, however, consumer demand for food products rose by more than 4 percent. During this period the principal economic actors were large landowners and forward-looking industrialists. The industrial surge after the Second World War had created an industry-dominated oligarchy in Portuguese politics (the "monopoly of 100 families") that wanted to keep food costs low for urban workers. The industrial sector also opposed government transfers to southern agriculture through pricing policies. - 105 - A compromise between the interests of the two groups was then effected. To allay the fears of rural landowners, the government plan for internal colonialization--in effect, a program of change in both existing landholding structures and rural land rental laws--was abandoned. Meanwhile, the Third National Agricultural Plan--released in the early 1960s--emphasized infrastructural investment and human capital development, including improvements in research and extension. In short, the controversial questions of landholding patterns and absentee ownership in agriculture were tabled. Despite rising labor costs, nominal prices for wheat--about two- thirds above world prices because of government subsidy--were kept relatively stable. The net effect was falling revenues for southern farms, which were then confronted with the task of transforming their operations through mechanization. The government used its pricing and credit instruments to encourage reductions in the land area devoted to wheat and the establishment of large mechanized farms. The government also sponsored milk and beef production programs that offered financial advantages to large farms. In the North the government adopted a policy organized around existing gremios, which assumed responsibility for milk collection, and newly formed cooperatives, which handled processing and marketing. These organizations also sold modern inputs, such as mixed feed and veterinary supplies. Pricing interventions were not introduced at this time. Overall, the 1960s witnessed the beginnings of a movement away from the agricultural protectionist position adopted in the 1930s. Plutocratic industrial interests concerned with the stability of food supply and maintenance of low food prices had become dominant. Wiarda - 106 - (1977, p.305) estimated that this group achieved 90 percent influence over economic policy compared to approximately 5 percent for large landowners. Northern farmers, who constituted a majority of all farmers in the country, had little say in the policymaking process. Continued Agricultural Problems and Inflation During the years between 1966 and 1973, large landowners in the South continued to adjust to rising labor costs and sluggish prices. The industrial sector's influence was strongly evidenced by a major policy change in agricultural credit. In 1965 the government eliminated the production credit program for cereals but retained a major program for funding capital improvements. The response was a reduction in cultivated area, but data on growth in capital investment in agriculture suggest that those who remained in farming began to make the necessary adjustments. Nonetheless, the rapid annual increase in consumer demand far outstripped the productive capabilities of Portuguese agriculture. In the second half of the 1960s, Portugal experienced inflation for the first time since Salazar's reign had begun. Increases in food costs threatened the nation's entire economic strategy, since these increases had a direct impact on both rural and urban consumers. Industrialists and largeholders both faced rapidly increasing labor costs, and labor disturbances--particularly among rural workers--became frequent. Together with violent student disturbances in the cities, these incidents threatened the assumption of harmony underlying the Salazar regime. The government then chose to insure the supply of food to urban areas. But attempts to modernize agricultural marketing and processing activities did not achieve this objective, and the government increasingly resorted to imports of food stuffs. - 107 - Corn Policies Because there is little irrigation in the South, Portugal's corn production is limited to the narrow strip along the Tagus River and its tributaries and--more importantly--to the small farms of the North. During the period 1966-73, corn producers received a guaranteed price, and corn was incorporated within the marketing structure of the National Federation of Wheat Producers (FNPT). But the atomistic structure of northern production, complicated by the fact that most of the corn was consumed on the farm, made any form of centralized marketing impossible. The government was able to buy corn only from the Tagus Valley. A hybrid corn seed program was then initiated to bring the Green Revolution to Portugal. Although farmers who participated in the program received a per hectare subsidy for using high-yielding seed, the response was limited to the central valleys. Northern farmers were slow to shift to hybrid seed because of the associated costs of fertilizers and pesticides and because of their imperfect integration in the corn market. The new corn policy had little impact upon the general food supply. Both prices and production remained stable during the period 1966-73, but imports of corn doubled from 1964 to 1965 and then increased sixfold through 1973. Livestock Policies Corn production problems during the period directly affected the production of beef, demand for which rose 8 percent a year between 1966 and 1973. The Third National Agricultural Development Plan proposed an intensification of beef production in the South through increased use of - 108 - pasture grasses and mixed feeds. A fixed price was established, a subsidy was offered for the slaughter of adult animals, and a marketing structure was established through the JNPP (the Animal Products Institute). Subsidy payments for beef doubled between 1964 and 1965, then tripled from 1965 through 1970. The response of farmers varied. As with the corn program, northern smallholders were unable to take advantage of the subsidies because of transportation costs and limited production. In the central valleys, however, intensive fattening operations involving the heavy use of mixed feeds began to appear. From the beginning to the end of this period, mixed feed use increased fivefold. Nonetheless, beef production did not increase at rates equal to the growth in consumer demand. Tomato Paste Policies Portugal's irrigation infrastructure, dry climate, and abundance of cheap rural labor made the country attractive in the 1960s to multi- national food firms that had previously been located in Italy and Spain. A combination of multinational technology and domestic capital then led to a vast enlargement of Portugal's tomato paste production. In 1963 there were nine processing plants in operation; by 1969 there were 34, nearly all Portuguese-owned. The multi-nationals purchased Portuguese concentrate in bulk for subsequent repackaging and delivery, primarily to the American market. Toward the end of the 1960s, however, the development of mechanical tomato harvesters in California reduced Portugal's share of the American market, and the Portuguese then sought to increase their share of European markets. The European Community then instituted defensive - 109 - policies that prompted the Portuguese government to subsidize the production of tomato concentrate destined for export. The relatively low level of subsidization was designed to maintain the competitiveness of the product in the European market. Portugal's tomato production is done largely by seareiros, who tend to have formal agreements with tomato processing plants that provide the growers with production credit, inputs, seeds or young plants, and frequently the rented land. The contracts also include stipulations regarding the quality of the tomatoes and provisions for payment. Policymakers consider Portugal's tomato paste industry to be exemplary. It demonstrated that a state-controlled development initiative could be successful. The growth of the industry was negotiated between private multi-national interests and the government, and public capital was invested to provide a "demonstration effect" to other potential investors. Moreover, the industry was able to absorb large amounts of labor while still using modern technologies. The industry grew rapidly, and tomato paste has now become one of Portugal's most competitive exports. With the exception of temporary export and input subsidies, price protection was (and continues to be) minimal. Dairy Policies It was in the mid-1960s that the government began to recognize that the rise in urban population would lead to shortages of milk and dairy products. Although farmers in the North supplied some of the milk sent to Lisbon, it seemed obvious to the country's policymakers that northern farmers were incapable of meeting rising urban needs as long as landholdings there remained small and fragmented. Thus, the first policy - 110 - measures--presented in 1965--were aimed at strengthening large dairy operations in the central valleys and the South. Portugal's dairy policy from 1965 to 1967 consisted of three basic instruments--subsidies for the acquisition of modern milking equipment, a per liter subsidy for raw milk obtained through the use of modern equipment, and fixed price. Nonetheless, the annual level of milk production actually dropped between 1965 and 1967. Government programs designed to encourage milk production became more precise between 1967 and 1971. Regional distinctions in milk prices and in the subsidies paid for raw milk were introduced, and southern producers received more than double the price received by northern farmers for top quality milk (Carvalho, Barros, and Rocha, 1982, p.21). Farmers who delivered larger quantities of milk also earned a larger per liter subsidy. These programs went into effect because government policymakers had concluded that the best solution to the problem was to bolster large- scale production units located near centers of demand. Yet milk production in the central and southern regions increased slowly, and it gradually became clear that the small farms of the North, farms with two cows on average, were still producing large amounts of milk. Policies that placed slightly more emphasis on dairy production in the North appeared in 1971. Regional subsidies were eliminated, while steps were taken to establish collective milking parlors and collective herds. The policy of larger subsidies for larger production units was maintained. By 1973, however, the government had recognized that the solution to shortages of dairy products lay in mobilization of the North's farm sector. This realization was a landmark in Portuguese agricultural policy. Despite the Salazarist notion that the North was quaint and "pure" (and should - 111 - remain so), the region and its small farmers were gradually given a more important role in Portugal's development. Deep fissures appeared in Salazar's corporatist system between 1965 and 1973. Up until then, decisions had been channeled down from the top, and dissent had been smothered. Although agriculture had an important role in the system--to produce cheap food--farmers did not enjoy political power. As Wiarda writes: Under the corporate system, all branches of production and economic activity, from farming and handicrafts to foreign trade, were snugly divided into rigid, almost watertight compartments. The local gremio, acting under the regulations and guidelines handed down by the appropriate junta, commission, or institute (for wheat, wine, fruits, rice, fish, manufacturing, or whatever), would tell the producer what and how much he could produce, to whom he should sell, and at what price. Neither buyers nor producers were free to trade in an open market but had to deal where they were told to deal by the state agency, selling or buying prescribed quotas at fixed prices. No wholesaler handling wheat, for instance, could exceed his purchase quota unless he could find an unfulfilled quota that might be turned over to him for a commission (1977:230). Portugal's serious agricultural problems worsened after 1965, but the government proved incapable of taking the steps necessary to resolve these problems. Salazar's philosophy was oriented toward stability, not change. The data show that some degree of price protection was retained, particularly for southern farmers, but real producer prices and real value- added began to decline in an inflationary environment. Agricultural problems in the South--worsened by the flow of labor out of agriculture- -intensified, while consumer demand also intensified. Thus on the eve of the Revolution in 1974, the government's major concerns were preserving the corporatist inspired harmony between classes and feeding an expanding urban population. - 112 - The Revolution and Land Reform By 1974 there was a general consensus in Portugal that revolutionary change was necessary, but there was much disagreement over the shape of the Revolution. Large segments of the population saw a need to redress wrongs that had persisted for nearly five decades. A small group of industrialists and large landowners had controlled economic and political power to the detriment of both urban and rural labor and small farmers. The corporatist structure had stifled economic initiative and created unwieldy bureaucracies. In many ways, a still-feudal Portugal was far behind a modernizing Europe. In this context, the wars in Africa--with their tragic human cost--functioned as a catalyst for change. The Revolution occurred in a macroeconomic context of world recession brought on by government reactions to soaring oil prices and food prices. Portugal had become a food-importing nation increasingly dependent on foreign cereals, and the rise in world prices placed great stress on the national treasury. World prices for corn and wheat surpassed domestic prices, and Portuguese farmers were implicitly taxed as a result of the country's pricing policies. The April Revolution began with the dismantling of the corporatist structure and the creation of a spectrum of political parties with potential access to power. But Portugal's ponderous bureaucratic mechanism and rigid social hierarchies did not yield quickly. Although new participants began arriving at the political arena, several of the country's policies remained untouched. Indeed, far from reducing government's control over agriculture, the first revolutionary governments increased the degree of intervention. - 113 - Most pricing instruments continued in place, and others were added to protect small farmers and consumers. The major reforms involved access to resources. Rural wages were increased, and the latifundias of the South were occupied by landless workers. Confusion reigned in the region for two years while successive revolutionary governments attempted to institute a land reform that would satisfy a majority of the population. The first revolutionary government recognized the need for a redistribution of land in the South, but widespread occupation of landholdings occurred before systematic land reform could be carried out. The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) had a large following among rural workers and small farmers, who nursed ancient grievances. The PCP flourished during the government of Goncalves, and 2.5 million hectares of land had been organized into "collective production units" by the end of 1975 (Morrison, 1981, p.44). In an attempt to impose order, the government created a complicated set of guidelines on land expropriation, including degrees of indemnification and the setting aside of land "reserves" for expropriated landowners. A point system was established that allowed the original landowners to retain some of their previous lands. All lands irrigated through public investment, however, were nationalized. Since many farms had been completely occupied, the question of reserves became a particularly sensitive issue (and continues to be so). Under the leadership of the PCP, agriculture collectives began to cultivate their newly acquired lands, in many cases with machinery confiscated when the lands were occupied. The state had also become a major landowner through nationalization and expropriation, and its lands were cultivated by landless farmers under rental agreements. - 114 - The Land Reform Act of 1976 In 1976 the Socialist Party under Mario Soares came to power, and the new government passed a comprehensive Land Reform Act. The act was intended to re-establish a sense of legal ownership in the South while ratifying certain revolutionary changes. The old structure of landownership had been destroyed, but in the interest of agricultural development it was necessary to establish tenure rights by law. The Socialists and the Communists had very different conceptions of structural change in the South, however, and found little ground for cooperation. The Minister of Agriculture found the collective farms objectionable because they had been occupied illegally, and the government offered an alternative to the collective farm--the production cooperative, which had legal title to the lands it cultivated. By 1976 the South was divided among collective farms (PCP), production cooperatives (Socialists), large private farms that had not been occupied, landowners who awaited the return of their reserves, small private farms, and state-owned lands. A rental law governing agricultural land was also passed. This law guaranteed renters tenure for a period of nine years, with option for renewal. It also placed ceilings on rents (based on soil potential), and specified time periods during which the rent could not be raised. In practice, the new law made it almost impossible for a landowner to dispossess a renter. Another policy was the establishment of subsidized production and investment credits for collective farms and production cooperatives, and large amounts of credit flowed to the South. Despite this advantage, many - 115 - of the collective farms and cooperatives did not succeed because of management, organizational, and legal problems. A traditionally conservative region, the North did not support the more radical aspects of the Revolution. However, the Revolution affected the region in the sense that an increased amount of attention began to be paid to the plight of small farmers. Beginning in 1974, government intervention in northern agriculture became more systematic and more comprehensive. As mentioned earlier, policy on dairy products was reshaped, based on collective milk parlors and an expanded role for local cooperatives. The North was not affected, however, by the 1976 Land Reform Act, since it was a region of small farms. Economic Crisis and European Integration Between 1976 and 1983, Portugal was led by nine different governments, most of them controlled by the Socialist and Social Democratic parties and their respective coalitions. The PCP consistently held about 20 percent of the seats in the National Assembly, with party strength concentrated in the South and among urban workers. Each government felt pressure to attend to the demands of groups that had been repressed under the Salazar regime. The question of urban food prices became strongly politicized, and the government initiated policies of highly subsidized food, coupled with incentives to producers of cereals and dairy products. The result was an increasingly large trade deficit in agricultural products and a larger public debt. Portugal's current account deficit in 1977 was $1.5 billion, and the country solicited foreign loans and investment to ameliorate the situation. Imports ran far ahead of exports that year, and inflation increased rapidly. - 116 - In 1978, Portugal negotiated a consortium loan from several countries organized by the International Monetary Fund. IMF stipulations under the loan included significant devaluation, the opening up of markets, and a sharp curtailing of the money supply. The austerity caused by these measures led to further political crisis. Harmony was now sought by establishing policies that protected farmers and consumers alike. After 1976, cereal and dairy farmers received fixed prices well above world market levels, and the government also started paying large subsidies to millers, producers of mixed feed, and processers to reduce consumer costs of meat products, bread, milk, and vegetable oil. The consequence was a dramatic increase in government expenditures, rapid growth in food imports, and a serious reduction in foreign currency reserves. During this period the Portuguese government wavered between its desire to institutionalize revolutionary changes, including the transfer of resources to economically disadvantaged sectors of society, and the need to maintain a healthy economy through austerity and sacrifice on the part of the general populace. In parliament, the Communists called for higher wages and ceilings on food costs, while the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats argued for more law and order, including a rapid return of agricultural lands to former owners. The Socialists maintained a studied centrist position and were the only party with sufficient support to impose the austerity measures that prevailed during this period. After 1976, the government pursued an aggressive agricultural pricing policy, and producer prices began to grow steadily in nominal terms and to increase slightly in real terms. Initially, there was little opposition to these higher prices. Both the PCP and large landowners - 117 - wanted higher cereal prices. The Communists favored the increases because of the large amounts of land farmed by collectives and cooperatives, while the traditional landowners favored the increases to take advantage of their own positions. Furthermore, higher prices for milk had stimulated production in the North. Another reason for the lack of opposition to producer subsidies was that they did not cost nearly as much as consumer subsidies. More than 90 percent of Portugal's corn and 60 percent of its wheat were imported and sold to millers and mixed feed producers at subsidized prices. The common view was that producer subsidies would help to extricate the country from its dependence on foreign supplies of these two important grains. It was also apparent that, apart from the producer subsidy program, public investment in agriculture was low. Credit and infrastructure programs received little in the way of public funds. The price-setting process was based on cost-of-production estimates calculated in the Ministry of Agriculture from representative farm budgets. Suggested output prices were then negotiated at meetings of the Interministerial Council, where the Minister of Agriculture was the official advocate of the prices. The Council made the final decisions and then announced the prices before the beginning of the agricultural cycle. This price-fixing procedure was a legacy of pre-Revolution bureaucratic control over prices. However, whereas it had been Salazar (or Caetano) who approved price levels before 1974, the Revolution allowed interest groups to bring political pressures to bear through parliament or through the ministers themselves. Thus, southern farmers could lobby for higher wheat prices either through the Portuguese Confederation of Farmers (CAP) or through their elected representatives. Similarly, northern - 118 - farmers--though less involved in national farm groups--activated their cooperative organizations to lobby in support of higher dairy and wine prices. In short, the price-fixing mechanism did not change, but the number of voices represented in the final decisions expanded. Cereals Policy Portugal's 1981 five-year agricultural plan included a reduction of almost 50 percent in the country's cultivated wheat area. However, recent studies of wheat farming (Procalfer, 1982) estimate that wheat production under the planned reduction produced small profits for wheat grown on poor soil and large profits for wheat grown on good soil. Hence, the goal of reducing cereal cultivation in the South was contradicted by pricing policies. Several other pricing policies also encouraged cereal production. Although fertilizer subsidies during the 1960s had been administered by different agencies, the Revolution changed all that. All decisions on such subsidies were taken over by the state, and all fertilizer use was subsidized at a rate approximately one-half the domestic cost of production (Procalfer, 1981). It is not clear if this subsidy constituted an indirect transfer to farmers or to Portugal's inefficient fertilizer industry. The government also subsidized agricultural use of diesel fuel. The subsidy for farmers was meant to offset the standard tax on diesel fuel paid by all consumers. Farmers submitted a record of tractor use to the government and received an end-of-year payment for each liter of diesel oil consumed. The largest payments have gone to farms in the South, where mechanization is much more prevalent. - 119 - As in pre-Revolutionary Portugal, all aspects of wheat marketing after the Revolution continued to be controlled by the Cereals Supply Monopoly (EPAC), a parastatal. EPAC was the offspring of the National Cereals Institute and until recently was the most powerful agricultural organization in the country. EPAC enjoyed a monopoly over all cereals transactions and functioned as both a monopsonist buyer abroad and as a monopolist seller domestically. With over 2,000 employees, EPAC's administrative costs are high. At harvest time, wheat is taken to EPAC storage centers in the southern region. EPA purchases and stores the cereal before selling it to millers. During the period in question the price paid by millers was less than the purchase price paid to domestic producers and, in most years, was lower than the world price. The difference between the purchase and sale price is paid for by the National Supply Fund and is thus a direct public expense. Throughout the period, Portugal annually imported about two- thirds of its wheat. Government policy on corn followed similar lines in that producer prices were set above the world price. EPAC did not operate as a monopsonist buyer of corn, however, because of its poor marketing infrastructure in the North. Although the North is the principal production zone, most of the corn grown there is used on the farms themselves. Some corn is produced for the domestic market on large irrigated farms in the central region, and EPAC operates drying and storage centers there. Imports of corn, which accounted for 95 percent of corn marketed in Portugal between 1960 and 1985, are under the control of EPAC. The intensification of livestock production in the 1960s caused rapid growth in the mixed feed sector. EPAC is the monopolist supplier of - 120 - corn to the mixed feed industry, and prices to both mixed feed producers and farmers were fixed by government decree. The price to the mixed feed industry was well below the producer price, and for most years, below the world price. The difference was paid by the National Supply Fund. A similar policy was established for oilseeds, the second most important component of mixed feed. Through the National Olive Oil and Oilseeds Institute, soybean and sunflower meal were purchased on the world market and sold to mixed feed producers at lower prices. These policies promoted the expansion of cattle feedlots, confined hogbarns, and modern chicken farms. This cereals pricing policy increased the supply of livestock products to consumers. Entering the 1980s, Portugal was nearly self- sufficient in the production of beef, pork, chickenmeat, and milk. On the other hand, the public expense became increasingly burdensome. Dairy Policies Major changes occurred in the northern dairy zone. Between 1976 and 1983, policies designed to assure an adequate flow of milk to urban consumers became policies to support small farmers. The attention given to small farms, in fact, was unprecedented. The northwestern region was designated as the country's milkshed, and local cooperatives were assigned monopoly rights over milk collection in the region despite considerable resistance from private processers. With the transportation monopoly came a fixed per liter payment from the government to cover average transportation costs. Another fixed payment was made to processors for every liter of liquid milk that was produced. The federations of dairy cooperatives quickly expanded both their - 121 - transportation capabilities and their processing facilities, and by 1980 the four major federations in the region had become strong economic and political entities. Milk production in the North occurs both along the coast and in mountainous areas inland where transportation is more costly. The cooperatives, however, agreed that all farmers would have guaranteed access to the market and pay uniform prices for transportation. The prices received by farmers, however, varied according to the quality of their milk. Using the established cooperative organizations, the government established thousands of collective milk parlors throughout the region. Equipped with modern milking machines and refrigerated storage tanks, these parlors solved the problem of gathering milk from farms with an average herd size of two cows. Meanwhile, employees at the parlors disseminated information on improved dairy breeds, feeding regimes, and other technologies. The pricing policies assured producers a fixed price, and a seasonal subsidy was also offered to promote production in the off-season. The cooperatives received a fixed margin payment for transportation and for processing, and liquid milk was sold in urban markets at a subsidized price. There was a period in the 1980s when the price paid to farmers exceeded the price paid by consumers. Two different milk-producing technologies are common in the North. The small farm, which accounts for 95 percent of the dairy farms and two- thirds of the production in the region (Pearson et al., 1987), uses only small amounts of mixed feed. The larger farms rely on corn silage and tend to employ larger quantities of both fertilizer and mixed feed. These larger farms enjoyed a greater degree of government assistance. - 122 - The National Livestock Products Monopoly (JNPP), which controls Portugal's international trade in dairy products, severely limited imports of butter, cheese, and skim milk powder when domestic supplies were low. The JNPP also coordinated dairy production and marketing in the Azores, where one-fourth of Portugal's raw milk production is processed (cf. Finan and Josling, 1983). The impact of these policies was substantial. The northwest milkshed underwent a general transformation as farmers slowly substituted improved dairy cows for traditional multi-purpose animals. The rise in milk production dramatically increased the participation of small farmers in the national market, and the country became nearly self-sufficient in dairy products over the course of a decade. The cost of the dairy program was high. In 1978, for example, about 15 percent of the subsidies paid by the National Supply Fund was for milk products. However, it was frequently noted that the Portuguese had the lowest per capita milk consumption in Western Europe, a fact that carried symbolic force in the political trenches. Thus, Portugal's dairy program illustrated the economic and political hazards of promoting social welfare in a country with a deteriorating macroeconomic situation. The return of land reserves to their owners in the South introduced greater stability in the region, and the government's dairy program had a major impact on farmers in the North. Farms in the central valleys benefited from high output prices and subsidized inputs. The question that remained was: Who would pay for government support of agriculture? With their new-found political strength, urban consumers effectively prevented the government from eliminating food subsidies. Consequently, the government's agricultural policy initiatives were - 123 - vitiated by high inflation and macroeconomic instability. Steps were then taken to solve the problem of ever-larger government deficits. Reform Measures in the Early 1980s In the spring of 1983, Portugal's ninth constitutional government was sworn in with Mario Soares as prime minister. In the face of a growing public debt and an eroding trade balance, Soares imposed further austerity. In agriculture, subsidies for fertilizers and mixed feed were removed. The costs of grain to both the mixed feed and milling industries were adjusted to reflect their true costs, including transportation and administration, and the prices of mixed feed and fertilizers then increased 80 to 100 percent. The initial impact of these changes was to increase meat and milk production costs. The prices received by milk producers were fixed, while meat prices were set through negotiations between the government and butchers. There was a precipitous decrease in the use of mixed feed as farmers sought feed substitutes or simply accepted lower yields. Many feed companies closed down. Cereal and milk producers complained bitterly about the increases in production costs, and the government reacted to these complaints by establishing prices for agricultural products that more than compensated for the loss of subsidies. The prices of wheat, corn, and milk, in particular, rose significantly in real terms. This contradictory behavior constituted a de facto decision to compel consumers to absorb a major share of the increased costs. While the higher prices for milk and cereals entailed a slight subsidization of milk and bread producers, the Supply Fund's major expense was paying the price differential between import - 124 - purchases and sales to domestic industry. The reform of June 1983 removed that difference, thereby raising the cost of food to consumers, who had already been notified of forthcoming austerity measures by the government. In January of 1984 there was also a slight increase in urban and rural wages. Meanwhile, a proposal had been presented to the parliament to eliminate EPAC's monopoly over trade in cereals. The proposal was designed to open up the cereals market to private traders. In part, the proposal anticipated the stipulations that would accompany Portugal's accession to the EEC. However, the proposal encountered heavy resistance within the bureaucracy before a compromise agreement was reached in which--initially-- 10 percent of the grain market will be open to private traders. However, over the long run, EPAC as well as the other economic monopolies will be forced to allow private competition. With Portugal's accession to the EEC a fact, control over the country's agricultural policies will gradually shift to Brussels, where the Common Market's headquarters are located. A study by Pearson et al. (1987) suggests that the profitability of Portuguese cereal and livestock farms will drop significantly over the next decade, thus causing heavy pressure for change. These pressures will be felt primarily on the milk and corn farms of the North. Since Portuguese prices for these products are higher than EEC prices, downward harmonization will be required over the course of transition, and the flexibility of Portugal's government to protect its farmers will be severely limited by the end of the transition period. Portugal has already made some adjustments. The uniform price to dairy producers has been replaced by variable prices that reflect differences in transport costs. Moreover, the collection monopoly of dairy - 125 - cooperatives is being reconsidered. Fertilizers and mixed feeds still carry no subsidies. Marketing structures that conform to EEC specifications are being established, and standard grades and classifications are being adopted. The government is contemplating a new role for the marketing monopolies that will be acceptable under the EEC's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). In sum, Portugal's centralized control over agriculture is on the road to extinction. - 126 - Bibliography Casaca, Paulo, 1987. "Sete falsas hipoteses sobre 'a Campanha do Trigo" Estudos de Economia VII (2):139-160 Gil Ferreira, Hugo and M.W. Marshall, 1986. Portugal's Revolution: ten years on. New York: Cambridge University Press. Morrison, Rodney J., 1981. Portugal: Revolutionary Change in an Open Economy. Boston: Auburn House Publishing Company Mota de Campos, Joao, 1963. Rumo ao Futuro: Contributo para a Definicao e Execucao de uma Politica Agricola. Lisbon Oliveira Baptista, Fernando, 1978. Dos Projectos de Colonizacao Interna ao Capitalismo Agrario (anos trinta - 1974). Coimbra: Coimbra University , 1985. Politica Agricola (anos trinta ao 74). Lisbon: Instituto Superior de Agronomia Pearson, Scott et al., 1987. Portugues Agriculture in Transition. Ithaca: Cornell University Press POCALFER, 1981. "The Portuguese Subsidy System" Report by the Policy and Economics Studies team to PROCALFER. Ceiras, Portugal Wiarda, Howard J., 1977. Corporatism and Development: The Portuguese Experience. Amherst: University of Massachusetts Press Supplement Table 1 Indices of Agricultural Output for Food and Non Food Products, Portugal, 1960-1983 (1960=100) .............................................................................. Food Non Food .......... ......................................... ...................... Vegetables Cheese and Olive Processing Horticulture Butter Year Cereals Tubers Oil Tomatoes Crops Wine Heat Milk(a) Eggs Flax Cork Resin Wool ........................................ ...................................... 1960 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1961 109 103 133 138 104 65 104 106 101 183 87 130 94 1962 129 89 62 269 120 133 106 103 103 156 91 103 104 1963 122 112 115 341 147 113 104 104 104 149 123 99 93 1964 113 111 48 479 165 119 103 98 105 146 116 122 104 1965 117 86 84 752 197 129 140 110 110 166 102 121 120 1966 95 98 44 937 226 78 145 104 103 157 94 117 105 1967 126 124 95 1454 267 85 144 100 100 203 78 120 82 1968 137 105 62 1578 195 102 147 111 104 193 108 120 73 1969 109 108 84 1504 206 71 171 125 109 182 89 123 79 1970 118 116 78 1335 197 99 178 127 112 83 72 140 66 1971 137 108 49 1137 .180 77 176 121 111 111 82 146 74 1972 118 108 62 1481 196 72 185 125 113 147 102 158 75 1973 108 103 49 1547 206 97 204 128 121 122 102 180 88 1974 108 105 56 1300 186 121 220 132 125 115 83 193 75 1975 113 96 57 1503 204 77 240 138 129 38 63 181 ' 76 1976 115 87 42 898 172 81 235 140 134 16 50 131 88 1977 71 111 35 1212 189 57 257 148 156 89 163 87 1978 78 106 47 1149 185 56 273 151 170 82 126 82 1979 80 96 66 1007 177 123 256 71 187 9 63 139 80 1980 100 105 37 831 167 88 306 188 194 16 56 176 80 1981 77 78 27 718 77 324 198 198 35 53 162 79 1982 92 92 92 952 88 323 200 205 59 166 80 1983 81 85 10 1015 72 406 201 192 54 134 76 .............................................................................. (a) Cow, eue and goat milk SOURCES: Table 7c; I.N.E., ESTATISTICAS AGRICOLAS for resin and cork. Supplement Table 2 Indices of Agricultural Output for Traded and Non-Traded Products, Portugal, 1960-1983 (1960=100) (b) Imported Products Non-Traded Products(a) Sun- Total Cows Year Corn Wheat Rice Barley flower Pork Beef Potatoes Milk Milk 1960 100 100 100 100 0 100 100 100 100 100 1961 136 87 118 104 0 102 110 101 105 108 1962 127 130 114 144 0 96 124 86 103 105 1963 112 120 110 122 0 96 116 110 104 107 1964 129 95 120 91 0 92 106 110 98 97 1965 99 124 92 144 0 91 144 85 110 112 1966 121 63 102 98 0 93 150 89 104 108 1967 124 129 97 147 0 101 123 125 99 106 1968 118 151 98 189 0 111 144 104 111 123 1969 119 92 116 109 0 120 196 109 124 135 1970 126 110 129 109 100 109 216 117 127 139 1971 113 160 107 169 119 114 221 108 121 132 1972 111 122 108 .124 116 124 180 110 125 136 1973 110 105 111 113 122 134 201 104 128 141 1974 104 108 86 149 214 135 209 108 132 147 1975 97 122 88 173 558 157 242 98 138 157 1976 81 138 64 236 682 152 196 88 140 160 1977 96 45 67 80 509 167 192 115 148 170 1978 97 50 89 89 1083 180 218 109 151 173 1979 99 50 96 82 906 154 220* 98 171 200 1980 106 87 96 109 1647 185 241 108 188 223 1981 81 64 74 82 63 212 282. 79 198 241 1982 91 86 95 102 1759 213 . 289 95 199 241 1983 91 66 72 109 803 209 253 87 213 241 (a) Cow, ewe and goat. (b) Except where series starts at a different date. SOURCE: Table 7c Supplement Table 2 Indices of Agricultural Output for Traded and Non-Traded Products, Portugal, 1960-1983 (1950=100) (b) Exported Products Vege- Tomato Olive Chest- Year table Processi Uine Oil Citrus Apples Pears Almonds nuts . . . . . . . . . . . .. . .. .. .. ..........................I- - - - - - - - - 1960 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1961 104 137 65 134 132 130 97 213 104 1962 120 269 134 62 157 107 83 246 97 1963 147 341 114 115 105 171 114 213 76 1964 165 478 119 48 151 157 93 157 425 1965 197 751 129 84 154 179 121 161 220 1966 226 936 78 44 143 159 84 154 444 1967 267 1452 85 93 144 168 161 189 424 1968 195 1576 102 62 106 133 115 181 177 1969 206 1503 71 84 126 152 93 91 196 1970 197 1333 99 78 117 165 90 207 218 1971 180 1136 77 49 107 177 68 248 122 1972 196 1479 72 62 151 214 112 233 220 1973 206 1545 97 49 150 266 116 252 221 1974 186 1299 121 56 134 227 97 189 154 1975 204 1502 77 57 138 261 122 119 155 1976 172 897 81 42 121 287 128 198 158 1977 189 1211 57 35 139 176 86 120 136 1978 185 1148 56 47 117 218 89 185 132 1979 177 1006 123 67 137 200 97 41 105 1980 167 830 88 37 114 237 115 67 96 1981 0 718 77 27 97 180 98 85 86 1982 0 951 88 92 137 195 147 187 82 1983 0 1014 73 10 109 201 133 150 89 -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ------------------------- - 130 - Supplement Table 3 Indices of Food Production and Consumption, Portugal, 1960-1984 1960=100 Agricultural Production Food Consumption Year Total Per Capita Total Per Capita 1960 100 100 100 100 1961 102 109 1962 114 112 1963 118 118 1964 116 119 1965 125 123 1966 110 126 1967 124 131 1968 122 139 1969 122 147 1970 134 134 153 158 1971 122 155 1972 120 164 1973 125 178 1974 123 189 1975' 124 193 1976 114 196 1977 104 193 1978 106 190 1979 113 200 1980 105 96 201 187 1981 91 1982 110 1983 97 1984 103 SOURCES: FAO PROOUCTION YEARBOOK DCP "Evotucao das Estruturas de Consumo-1958-1975" in Revista de Planeamento, Vol. 1, No. 1, July 1978, for agricultural food consumption up to 1975. Pinto, A. Sevinate et aL., "A Economia do Sector Agricola, Analise da Evolucao 76-80; Instituto de Pesquisa Social Damiao de Gois, 1982, for agricultural food consumption. 1976-1980. (!ndices not available since 1980). Supplement Table 4 Producer Prices of Selected Agricultural Products, Portugal, 1960-1983 (a) (1963 Escudos) Dry Chick- Broad Tomato Sun- Saff- Olive Wheat Rye Maize Paddy Oats Barley Beans Peas Beans Potatoes Industry Flower Flower Oil Wine Year ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/L ESC/L 1960 3.03 2.47 2.30 2.66 2.78 2.63 4.64 4.41 3.15 1.17 0.55 13.36 2.90 1961 3.03 2.39 2.11 2.78 2.96 2.85 4.59 4.40 3.72 1.12 0.55 13.50 3.41 1962 3.00 2.38 2.16 2.77 2.67 2.41 4.09 4.61 3.37 1.41 0.55 13.23 2.57 1963 3.02 2.31 2.15 2.80 2.18 2.44 4.99 4.99 3.04 1.15 0.54 13.10 2.22 1964 2.99 2.30 2.10 2.93 2.24 2.46 4.81 5.22 3.19 1.09 0.53 12.97 2.20 1965 3.12 2.36 2.53 2.89 2.46 2.62 5.03 5.87 3.85 1.63 0.52 14.81 2.10 1966 3.02 2.36 2.31 2.98 2.53 2.54 6.01 6.97 3.92 1.86 0.50 14.26 2.76 1967 2.91 2.28 2.17 2.98 2.06 2.49 6.07 5.63 3.41 1.01 0.48 13.75 3.58 1968 2.79 2.23 2.10 3.03 1.54 1.82 6.31 4.09 3.27 1.06 0.46 14.44 3.22 1969 2.69 2.19 2.01 3.00 1.71 2.02 6.63 4.68 3.74 1.41 0.45 0.00 0.00 13.97 4.10 1970 2.61 2.12 1.87 2.97 1.80 2.02 6.44 5.30 3.65 1.00 0.46 3.97 4.10 13.52 3.50 1971 2.77 2.09 2.16 2.96 1.79 1.91 6.92 6.32 4.12 1.26 0.47 4.08 4.30 13.20 4.08 1972 2.63 1.99 2.05 2.68 1.61 1.80 7.14 8.21 3.74 1.61 0.45 4.50 4.43 14.26 4.59 1973 2.37 1.80 1.75 2.41 1.55 1.83 7.62 9.17 3.98 1.61 0.46 4.19 3.11 16.38 4.82 1974 2.21 1.68 2.01 2.61 1.46 1.79 8.50 8.02 3.96 1.54 0.75 4.68 4.29 22.06 2.85 1975 2.27 1.89 2.46 2.83 1.48 1.70 11.74 7.83 3.30 2.01 0.65 4.78 4.61 22.59 2.93 1976 1.90 1.62 2.06 2.62 1.45 1.45 13.33 8.93 3.45 2.44 0.52 4.01 3.88 21.04 3.20 1977 1.81 1.49 1.90 2.20 1.80 1.86 13.47 11.32 7.18 1.87 0.44 3.80 3.54 18.96 4.51 1978 1.72 1.49 1.64 2.27 2.32 2.08 9.80 9.31 4.85 1.01 0.40 3.62 3.18 14.43 6.96 1979 1.96 1.25 1.46 2.23 1.58 1.53 7.30 7.38 6.03 1.63 0.39 3.33 4.94 15.98 2.76 1980 2.12 1.60 1.59 2.50 1.36 1.36 6.81 7.94 4.32 1.33 0.49 3.61 1.08 16.03 3.00 1981 1.99 1.84 1.73 2.47 1.50 1.76 12.48 8.76 4.21 1.53 0.45 3.26 3.01 18.16 4.07 1982 2.04 1.80 1.71 2.50 1.43 1.58 12.57 10.19 3.90. 1.64 0.51 3.37 3.10 18.06 3.03 1983 2.16 1.93 2.16 2.63 1.49 1.67 10.19 11.11 4.27 1.55 0.49 3.31 2.95 19.10 2.77 (a) Average prices to the producer, with exception of milk. (b) Guaranteed prices in organized areas with regard to milk collection and 3.5% fat. (c) Esc/kg carcass (d) Up to 1972 prices refer to adult bovines, after 1972 prices r6fer to cows. SOURCES: I.N.E., ESTATISTICAS AGRICOLAS, ANUARIOS ESTATISTICOS, JNPP, MACP Supplement Table 4 Producer Prices of Selected Agricultural Products, Portugal. 1960-1983 (cont.) Class A Cherry Figs Orange Apples Pears Peaches Grapes Almonds chestnut Beef(c,d) Pork(c) Sheep(c) Milk Year ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/KG ESC/L (b) ...................................................................................................... 1960 20.80 17.69 41.05 2.04 1961 20.89 17.85 41.71 1.95 1962 20.67 15.04 39.94 1.99 1963 22.20 18.36 49.67 2.07 1964 24.24 22.11 62.41 2.31 1965 23.30 19.47 55.07 2.17 1966 25.57 20.16 60.57 2.31 1967 26.49 21.42 59.38 2.77 1968 25.36 16.12 54.17 2.65 1969 24.90 16.79 65.26 2.56 1970 4.03 3.22 3.62 4.58 4.30 5.15 4.37 6.85 2.50 25.23 20.44 62.22 2.48 1971 5.34 2.75 4.40 5.53 4.66 5.59 4.87 7.21 2.84 28.66 20.23 80.21 2.73 1972 4.37 3.24 3.85 3.84 3.82 4.42 4.85 7.77 3.41 29.30 19.13 86.83 2.67 1973 4.54 3.60 3.50 3.13 3.53 4.63 4.91 10.22 2.68 35.73 18.53 96.09 2.40 1974 3.41 3.60 3.88 3.85 3.98 5.16 4.49 5.96 3.08 32.03 17.75 92.67 2.54 1975 7.33 4.43 4.06 3.14 4.57 6.63 5.49 5.53 2.61 32.41 17.70 99.77 3.09 1976 5.32 2.79 5.12 2.58 2.94 4.10 4.22 4.53 2.28 32.74 22.52 93.42 3.02 1977 15.81 5.34 3.88 3.53 4.54 *10.24 5.23 5.89 4.56 33.82 15.86 86.98 2.67 1978 6.41 3.73 4.53 2.63 3.60 7.91 4.05 9.11 4.06 29.73 12.66 70.28 2.84 1979 6.76 3.93 2.60 2.23 3.42 8.20 3.80 8.17 3.11 31.88 19.18 72.03 2.45 1980 5.76 4.90 3.22 1.85 2.88 6.63 4.44 7.66 3.07 35.77 14.94 77.17 2.39 1981 7.70 4.89 5.43 4.66 4.48 7.32 5.69 4.67 5.37 29.24 10.47 ''.54.29 2.23 19812 10.28 4.03 3.45 2.89 4.27 7.85 4.21 3.20 4.70 27.24 14.42 57.74 2.31 1983 9.74 3.56 4.42 3.01 3.32 5.50 4.60 5.41 3.96 32.73 15.57 55.75 2.55 Supplement Table 5 Index of Deflated Prices for Consumer Food Products. Portugal, 1960-1983 (1963=100) .................................................................................. Bread & Milk Vegetables Coffee Non Cereal Cheese Oils & and Tea Alcohol. Alcoholic Year Products Heat Eggs Fats Fruits Potatoes Sugar Cocoa Beverage Beverage 1960 100.9 93.1 96.3 98.8 104.6 89.5 99.6 102.2 90.1 98.3 1961 100.4 95.8 95.3 101.2 95.7 86.1 101.7 102.2 101.8 99.9 1962 100.5 96.6 94.9 100.4 88.6 94.2 101.0 101.2 107.8 99.9 1963 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1964 97.0 108.7 101.3 102.0 100.2 79.2 101.9 99.0 99.0 95.0 1965 102.1 113.8 95.1 103.0 98.2 106.3 100.3 96.3 100.7 99.9 1966 100.7 113.1 105.8 101.9 120.2 138.9 99.0 92.7 97.5 96.8 1967 98.4 117.4 103.5 99.4 101.0 91.7 97.7 89.3 90.4 101.1 1968 95.6 111.8 102.9 98.2 108.1 78.4 95.7 91.5 92.7 110.9 1969 92.9 111.2 99.9 96.4 120.1 110.2 94.1 102.8 90.9 110.8 1970 89.1 111.8 96.4 100.9 115.2 84.9 93.3 98.5 88.6 123.8 1971 91.5 119.7 102.7 99.0 133.3 85.0 91.1 96.0 91.6 125.6 LO 1972 87.6 121.1 99.8 94.4 134.9 116.4 86.4 90.5 92.1 127.0 1973 79.2 115.2 97.2 90.5 134.5 115.9 79.1 81.3 75.8 134.6 1974 82.9 111.9 89.6 108.9 119.5 108.5 73.5 80.4. 68.3 133.1 1975 91.5 116.4 92.2 109.0 146.1 125.4 142.2 92.0 74.4 120.4 1976 77.5 133.8 106.0 91.0 153.3 146.5 120.5 94.9 66.0 106.8 1977 73.6 142.5 97.2 84.4 182.9 132.3 102.2 175.1 60.9 108.0 1978 66.4 127.9 93.5 75.6 146.8 69.9 89.9 174.4 55.2 144.7 1979 63.3 137.5 85.8 70.5 130.9 95.0 77.6 139.5 44.1 149.5 1980 72.3 155.5 86.7 76.6 130.2 97.0 87.6 159.8 . 50.6 99.9 1981 76.4 134.9 91.9 71.3 151.3 91.1 89.4 137.3 43.4 98.0 1982 83.0 136.6 98.2 86.8 1555 106.7 88.0 121.7 38.6 100.5 1983 84.0 155.7 106.6 82.3 132.7 87.7 86.0 121.8 .38.6 82.5 SOURCES: DCP - See Table 4 INE - Components of the Consumer Price Index after 1976 Supplement Table 6 Production of Selected Agricultural Comnodities, Portugal, 1960-1983 (thousand tons) ............................................................................. Broad Dry Chick Pota- Saff- Sun- Olive Year Wheat Maize Rye Paddy Oats Barley Beans Beans Peas toes flower flower Oil 1960 492 466 138 151 61 50 28 50 21 1041 942 1961 430 632 119 177 65 52 25 69 27 1056 1257 1962 645 599 171 174 104 72 38 58 21 894 580 1963 592 .523 216 166 99 61 41 60 26 1145 1084 1964 472 597 167 181 68 46 29 66 23 1143 450 1965 612 459 209 139 99 72 27 51 15 888 788 1966 312 565 145 154 63 49 24 58 23 923 414 1967 637 577 175 146 111 74 31 55 30 1296 879 1968 748 548 199 149 129 94 36 50 26 1083 581 1969 454 553 167 176 79 54 29 51 22 1126 791 1970 548 581 157 195 72 54 27 54 20 1220 11 1 735 1971 794 526 169 162 125 85 33 .56 16 1124 22 2 458 1972 604 519 164 164 85 62 29 51 14 1139 15 2 588 1973 517 509 134 168 79 57 26 50 15 1086 11 2 462 1974 534 486 143 130 99 75 27 40 14 111s 7 3 526 1975 601 451 146 133 121 87 26 39 15 1012 12 8 539 1976 686 379 165 97 127 117 26 32 15 918 15 9 392 1977 224 442 103 102 60 39 15 38 11 1201 3 7 327 1978 250 449 123 135 64 44 19 42 15 1128 4 15 439 1979 248 461 120 145 70 41 17 38 13 1021 1 12 625 1980 430 489 138 155 96 54 21 42 15 1118 2 22 349 1981 315 377 126 112 72 41 16 30 8 829 0 1!, 251 1982 425 421 119 143 86 51 18 35 10 983 1 24 864 1983 327 424 93 109 99 54 16 39 8 905 0 11 96 (a) Up to 1973 from JNF - Junta Macional de Fruitas. After 1973 from INE. (b) Orange, grapefruit and tangerine. (c) Straw and seeds after first drying process. SOURCES: INE - ESTATISTICAS AGRICOLAS, ANUARIOS ESTATISTICOS, and JNF Supplement Table 6 Production of Selected Agricultural Commodities, Portugal. 1960-1983 (cont)' (thousand tons) ............................................................................. Tomato (a)........N-- Heat From ............... Total Cou Year Processing Pork Bovines Goats Ovine Horses Poultry Milk Milk Cheese Butter Eggs Wool ............................................................................. 1960 55 52 40 2 19 3 11 455 329 20 3 30 11 1961 76 53 44 2 19 3 12 480 356 20 2 31 12 1962 148 50 50 2 19 2 12 469 345 20 3 32. 12 1963 188 50 47 2 19 3 12 474 351 21 2 32 10 1964 263 48 43 2 23 3 12 444 320 21 2 33 12 1965 413 47 58 2 26 2 43 502 366 23 2 33 13 1966 515 48 61 2 26 2 44 475 357 19 2 34 12 1967 799 52 50 2 22 2 47 453 348 17 2 35 9 1968 867 58 58 2 18 1 50 507 404 18 2 35 8 1969 827 62 79 3 18 2 53 568 444 20 2 36 9 1970 734 57 87 3 19 2 58 580 458 21 2 37 7 1971 625 59 74 3 18 2 67 548 433 19 2 37 8 1972 814 64 73 3 18 2 75 569 447 21 1 37 8 1973 849 69 81 3 20 2 83 582 462 23 1 40 10 1974 714 70 84 3 18 1 100 600 484 22 2 43 8 1975 826 81 98 4 18 1 100 627 515 22 1 45 9 1976 493 79 79 4 19 1 115 638 528 25 2 44 10 1977 666 87 77 3 20 1 134 674 560 28 2 52 10 1978 632 93 88 4 19 1 137 685 569 31 3 56 9 1979 553 80 89 3 19 1 133 777 656 35 3 61 9 1980 457 96 97 4 20 1 170 853 735 37 4 62. 9 1981 395 110 114 4 20 1 164 902 799 37 4 64 9 1982 523 110 117 4 22 1 165 909 793 37 4- 68 9 1983 558 108 102 4 23 1 168 972 794 36 4 62 9 ............................................................................. Supplement Table 6 Production of Selected Agricultural Conmiodities. Portugal, 1960-1983 (cont) (thousand tons) .............................................................................. (b) (c) Fortified Year Apples Pears Peaches Grapes Citrus Almonds Chestnut Flax Uine wine Vegetables ................................................................................ 1960 54 51 17 44 100 10 21 1 11091 324 895 1961 70 50 41 47 132 21 22 2 7069 340 935 1962 58 42 22 54 157 24 21 1 14819 382 1073 1963 92 58 31 56 105 21 16 1 12495 438 1312 1964 85 48 15 70 151 .15 90 1 13044 424 1478 1965 96 62 36 52 154 16 47 2 14197 408 1766 1966 86 43 17 52 143 15 94 1 8307 486 2018 1967 90 82 38 41 144 18 90 2 9273 437 2392 1968 71 59 27 53 106 17 36 2 10911 456 1744 1969 82 47 29 40 126 9 41 2 7581 489 1846 1970 89 46 36 55 117 20 46 1 10629 438 1759 1971 95 35 43 57 107 24 26 1 8321 463 1606 1972 115 57 56 44 152 23 47 1 7550 598 1749 F- 1973 143 59 51 50 150 22 47 1 10063 932 1845 1974 122 50 53 40 134 18 32 1 12913 688 1676 1975 141 61 63 35 139 12 33 0 8137 565 1827 1976 155 65 79 33 121 19 33 0 8446 638 1535 1977 95 44 33 28 139 12 29 5895 730 1690 1978 117 45 36 26 118 18 28 5678 600 1656 1979 107 49 31 56 138 4 22 0 13199 698 1588 1980 128 59 33 62 114 7 20 0 9200 732 1492 1981 97 50 30 49 98 8 18 0 8212 561 1982 105 75 33 71 137 18 17 9372 615 1983 108 68 38 64 109 14 19 7638 599 ................................................................................ Supplement Table 7 Consumption of Selected food Groups, Portugal, 1960-1980 (thousand tons) Fresh & Dried Fruits Milk & Oils Year Cereals Starches Sugar Pulses Vegetable Nuts Heat Eggs Cheese Fats ................................................................ 1960 1,050 889 155 55 876 632 158 30 240 130 1961 1,012 872 158 65 907 774 166 30 254 138 1962 1,081 722 165 50 979 729 167 . 31 272 136 1963 1,194 863 163 64 997 793 168 31 280 144 1964 998 933 173 67 1,079 867 172 32 315 142 1965 1,084 759 169 45 1,112 847 221 33 346 153 1966 1,012 827 177 75 1,212 790 226 33 348 153 1967 1,090 965 179 72 1,233 910 238 34 370 151 1968 1,127 905' 198 62 1,244 601 244 34 410 148 1969 1,124 928 209 66 1,185 613 270 35 447 179 1970 1,090 1,005 212 65 1,286 634 277 36 448 180 1971 1,066 938 221 68 922 613 290 36 423 168 1972 1,126 919 245 61 1,033 700 310 33 383 198 1973 1,021 904 241 67 1,199 728 319 35 489 217 1974 1,107 932 254 50 1,220 707 361 37 507 207 1975 1,134 876 252 56 1,163 738 385 35 577 218 1976 1,034 852 241 49 1,104 705 386 34 531 242 1977 1,103 847 260 54 1,104 531 410 40 381 259 1978 1,119 882 269 53 1,133 529 416 43 651 265 1979 1,159 870 277 46 1,116 ,564 422 48 666 26? 1980 1,183 948 281 52 1,056 600 441 47 734 273 .............................................. ............... SOURCES: INE - ESTATISTICAS AGRICOLAS "8atancas Alimentares" in ANUARIOS ESTATISTICOS Supplement Table 7 -I4e-7dt-i+) Consumption of Selected Agricultural Products, Portugal, 1960-1984 (thousand tons) Year Wheat Maize Rice Potatoes Beef Sheep Milk 1960 501.6 446.7 146.2 906.3 39.3 11.0 220.6 1961 586.5 634.1 187.8 887.7 42.9 10.9 234.1 1962 790.6 590.5 165.5 716.0 48.9 11.6 243.5 1963 677.1 571.0 190.1 1,029.2 46.0 11.8 249.6 1964 635.4 647.6 177.0 1,000.2 46.3 10.1 256.9 1965 809.7 507.7 160.9 770.6 61.0 10.3 269.2 1966 622.1 823.7 194.6 848.6 61.1 10.6 279.6 1967 830.5 752.1 165.5 1,158.5 50.3 10.7 272.8 1968 874.1 934.8 190.1 941.8 58.5 12.6 321.4 1969 705.1 918.7 214.9 998.9 79.9 12.3 340.8 1970 822.7 873.7 198.1 1,068.7 88.9 13.1 351.1 1971 866.3 1,0?0.2 157.6 971.3 76.4 10.0 352.0 1972 679.0 1,265.7 188.1 1,027.2 74.0 8.3 369.7 1973 610.3 1,265.1 162.7 952.5 81.6 10.3 351.1 1974 790.8 1,454.9 134.8 1,025.5 84.8 10.3 381.0 1975 825.0 1,643.5 176.7 875.2 96.8 10.0 409.4 1976 871.4 1,558.3 184.3 828.0 79.2 9.5 412.0 1977 541.6 1,627.5 196.6 1,094.6 79.1 8.0 417.4 1978 857.0 2,105.2 181.2 970.8 90.8 9.8 400.5 1979 757.1 2,447.8 262.7 874.4 93.2 8.5 468.7 1980 887.5 3,008.1 207.1 2,044.1 97.5 10.0 528.1 1901 1,161.9 2,904.8 217.0 717.9 114.9 9.6 570.5 1982 1,002.8 2,740.2 276.5 1,092.1 120.4 9.4 559.9 1983 836.6 2,627.3 170.4 788.5 104.1 9.9 590.9 1984 1,160.9 2,393.1 238.8 952.0 93.9 9.0 597.3 Source: INE, Estatisticas Agricolas Supplement Table 8 Value of aiports of Selected Agricultural Products, Portugal, 19601983 (million escudos) - Oil Other Total Sugar Fruits Vegetable Fats Beet & Year Wheat Corn Seeds Fats Oils Cane (a) Cotton Beef Pork Others(b) 1960 159 4 360 155 2 445 1,042 104 510 1961 470 53 342 144 2 478 1,255 130 458 1962 467 52 285 81 8 488 1,228 79 367 1963 316 123 519 116 8 358 1,333 133 16 442 1964 492 123 458 465 19 639 1,430 178 76 657 1965 461 253 652 477 30 521 1,693 180 83 324 1966 741 548 653 182 50 573 1,498 199 19 473 1967 539 367 931 236 57 658 1,344 446 161 631 1968 344 780 767 220 101 675 1,713 303 66 710 1969 532 731 917 221 161 584 1,791 154 6 797 1970 689 673 677 292 108 840 1,679 90 112 857 1971 254 1,001 862 397 310 688 1,774 536 231 862 1972 302 1,390 958 1,034 266 944 2,481 801 284 884 1973 625 2,003 1,122 818 636 1,050 3,462 578 216 1,914 1974 1,804 3,825 1,712 889 870 3,158 3,150 331 450 2,028 1975 1,575 4,835 2,420 544 445 5,187 3,107 667 327 1,193 1976 1,021 4,681 3,016 337 577 3,457 4,497 1,013 819 2,281 1977 1,791 5,159 5,011 371 1,686 2,327 7,240 1,898 407 4,77J 1978 3,769 8,344 6,296 829 1,894 2,279 6,904 908 46 3,464 1979 6,011 12,902 9,129 924 1,971 2,659 10,031 988 831 5,770 1980 4,928 1,917 7,587 599 3,850 6,631 13,036 1,140 173 8,818 1981 10,319 26,911 10,130 757 6,663 7,955 15,513 245 164 10,770 1982 8,270 24,027 18,059 1,654 3,454 17,078 59 346 12,584 1983 9,683 35,692 30,464 1,392 2,974 25,061 216 1,160 15,126 ........................................................................ (a) up to 1971 from ESTATISTICAS AGRICOLAS. After 1971 from ANUARIO ESTATISTICO (b) Wool, skins and leathers, wood and woodworking. SOURCE: INE - ESTATISTICAS AGRICOLAS, ANUARIOS ESTATISTICOS Supplement Table 9 Value of Exports of Selected Agricultural Products, Portugal, 1960-1981 (million escudos) Toia to Olive Pulp Fortified Paper Year Vegetable oil Paste(a) Wine Wine Nuts(b) Cork Paste Wood Resin 1960 44 82 69 338 302 66 1,456 145 567 497 1961 102 86 93 322 392 106 1,376 156 547 295 1962 120 279 90 316 420 149 1,417 159 508 346 1963 85 104 203 414 409 129 1,552 211 564 423 1964 103 114 263 573 435 102 1,633 322 680 464 1965 117 112 460 141 1,608 365 717 432 1966 69 162 585 774 506 137 1,543 434 722 429 1967 100 192 879 906 496 154 1,508 439 669 397 1968 134 202 977 1,052 553 220 1,564 770 547 405 1969 117 216 864 1,099 543 199 1,641 1,115 521 534 1970 147 234 963 1,193 621 138 1,669 1,363 726 748 1971 136 250 866 1,269 683 237 1,756 1,327 711 821 1972 133 231 1,259 1,332 956 380 2,142 1,807 703 891 1973 207 227 1,648 1,674 1,354 421 2,889 1,980 1,015 1,070 1974 234 220 1,827 1,788 1,903 339. 3,798 2,517 1,734 1,542 1975 218 182 798 1,646 1,553 182 2,971 2,391 926 754 1976 252 131 1,862 1,683 1,738 243 3,741 2,935 1,463 961 1977 263 188 2,081 2,273 2,557 508 5,717 3,649 2,397 1,054 1978 507 230 1,989 3,077 3,722 615 7,249 3,220 3,214 1,888' 1979 768 385 2,396 3,540 5,786 697 10,230 6,239 278 1980 596 434 2,688 4,079 7,138 503 14,236 9,586 8,093 3,563 1981 691 493 3,321 4,787 7,448 596 14,156 12,519 6,855 4,326 .. ..... ...... .... ................................................... (a) Up to 1973 from ESTATISTICAS AGRICOLAS. After 1973 from ANUARIOS ESTATISTICOS (b) Fresh or dried SOURCE: INE - ESTATISTICAS AGRICOLAS, ANUARIOS ESTATISTICOS Supplement Table 10 Relativg Weight of Objectives of Agricultural Price Policy in Portugal, 1960-1985 Objectives 1960-64 1965-73 1974:75 1976-80 1981-85 Food Costs 10% 20% 54% 30% 15% Farmer Income 10% 5% 0% 30% 30% Government Revenue 10% 15% 0% 0% 20% Foreign Exchange 10% 10% 0% 0% 15% Self-sufficiency 30% 20% 0% 0% 0% Price Stability 20% 15% 30% 10% 0% Regional Equity 0% 0% 0% 10% 101 Nutrition 0% 0% 10% 10% 0% Support of Processing 10% 15% 10% 10% 10% Industry Total 100% . 100% 100% 100% 100% Supplement Table 11 Different phases of agricultural policy making in Portugal, 1960-86. Agricultural Political Macroeconomic World Market Price Phases Factors Factors Factors Factors Policy 1960-64 a) mechanization a) corporatist a) stable exchange a) stable prices a) support for b) high off-farm control rate wheat out-migration b) comparative b) low infiation b) low prices for c) public investment stability c) growth other products in irrigation 1965-73 a) critical labor a) industrialista a) high inflation a) world prices a) increased support for shortage movement b) balance of payment explode cereals, livestock b) increasing demand b) African wars problems for food c) tensions in c) oil crisis c) intensive live- dictatorship stock technologies 1974-76 a) land occupations a) political a) high inflation a) high world a) subsidized credit b) seturning emigrants instability b) large wage. prices in South c) high food demand b) left-wing increases b) export subsidies government c) heavy public on tomatoes c) large consuner subsidies 1977-83 a) land Reform a) succession of a) IMF intervention a) world prices a) extensive price instituted governments: b) large trade recede controls at high b) marketing boards center-left and deficit support levels strengthened center-right c) large budget . - b) large constuner c) urowth of milk deficit subsidies production in North 1963 -86 a) liberalization of a) center-left a) high inflation a) low world a) removal of input akarkets begins gove-irnment b) strong dollar prices subsidies b) negotiations for b) austerity c) large trade b) increase in output EC entry program deficit prices c) ,gricultural growth c) reduction in consuner subsidies ..- --.- -...-.-.... ..-.. ...... ...... ...-.. ..... ...... ...-.. ...... ..... ...... ...... ...... ..... ...... ...... .. ---- ----- Supplement Table 12 Deflated Producer Prices, Selected Agricultural Commodities, Portugat (1960-1984) ........................................................................ ........................ Price Levels,ESC(1963)/kg ........................ Potatoes Milk Uine Rice Tomato Corn Wheat Beef Sheep Year ....................................................... 1960 1.22 2.12 3.00 2.76 0.57 2.38 3.14 21.56 42.55 1961 1.12 1.95 3.41 2.77 0.55 2.11 3.03 20.88 41.69 1962 1.43 2.01 2.59 2.79 0.55 2.18 3.03 20.87 40.33 1963 1.15 2.07 2.22 2.80 0.54 2.15 3.02 22.19 49.65 1964 1.09 2.31 2.20 2.93 0.53 2.10 2.99 24.23 62.38 1965 1.63 2.17 2.10 2.89 0.52 2.53 3.11 23.29 55.04 1966 1.86 2.31 2.76 2.98 0.50 2.30 3.02 25.56 60.55 1967 1.01 2.77 3.58 2.98 0.48 2.17 2.91 26.48 59.36 1968 1.09 2.72 3.31 3.11 0.47 2.16 2.86 26.01 55.57 1969 1.41 2.56 4.10 3.00 0.45 2.01 2.69 24.90 65.26 1970 1.01 2.50 3.53 2.99 0.46 1.89 2.63 25.43 62.72 1971 1.25 2.71 4.05 2.94 0.47 2.15 2.75 28.44 79.57 1972 1.54 2.55 4.39 2.57 0.43 1.96 2.52 28.03 83.06 1973 1.62 2.42 4.85 2.43 0.46 1.76 2.38 35.97 96.73 1974 1.62 2.66 2.99 2.73 0.78 2.11 2.31 33.58 97.18 1975 2.07 3.18 3.01 2.91 0.67 2.53 2.33 33.32 102.59 1976 2.56 3.17 3.36 2.76 0.55 2.16 2.00 34.39 98.13 1977 1.99 2.84 4.80 2.34 0.47 2.02 1.92 35.95 92.46 1978 1.15 3.25 7.96 2.59 0.45 1.88 1.97 33.99 80.35 1979 2.05 3.09 3.48 2.82 0.49 1.84 2.48 40.20 90.83 1980 1.44 2.58 3.25 2.71 0.53 1.72 2.29 38.71 83.51 1981 1.70 2.47 4.51 2.74 0.50 1.92 2.20 32.40 60.16 1982 1.77 2.50 3.28 2.70 0.55 1.85 2.20 29.42 62.37 1983 1.69 2.80 3.04 2.88 0.54 2.36 2.37 35.87 61.10 1984 2.11 2.37 2.69 3.33 0.54 2.57 2.76 34.42 59.81 ........................................................................ Nominal producer prices deflated by non-agricultural price index, 1963=1.00 SOURCE: Anmex B Supplement Table 13 PrevaiLing Consumer Prices, Selected Agricultural Commodities, Portugal, 1960-1984 ................................................................................ Actual Price Levels Deflated Price Levels Wheat Milk Corn Wheat Milk Corn Esc/kg Esc(1963)/kg . .................. ................................................... 1960 2.82 2.60 2.25 2.98 2.75 2.38 19-2 2.82 2.60 2.07 2.88 2.65 2.11 1962 2.82 2.60 2.14 2.88 2.65 2.18 1965 2.87 2.74 2.15 2.87 2.74 2.15 1964 2.87 3.08 2.12 2.84 3.05 2.10 1965 3.08 3.08 2.63 2.96 2.96 2.53 1966 3.10 3.30 2.49 2.87 3.05 2.30 1967 3.10 4.10 2.43 2.77 3.66 2.17 1968 3.10 4.10 2.46 2.72 3.59 2.16 1969 3.10 4.10 2.43 2.56 3.39 2.01 1970 3.10 4.10 2.34 2.50 3.31 1.89 1971 3.80 4.10 2.77 2.95 3.18 2.15 1972 3.80 4.10 2.77 2.69 2.91 1.96 1973 3.80 4.10 2.62 2.55 2.75 1.76 1974 3.80 6.00 3.70 2.06 3.26 2.01 1975 4.50 6.00 3.70 2.12 2.83 1.75 1976 4.40 6.00 3.70 1.78 2.42 1.49 1977 4.40 7.00 4.20 1.40 2.22 1.33 1978 6.00 8.50 5.70 1.56 2.21 1.48 1979 7.20 10.00 6.70 1.59 2.21 1.48 1980 7.20 11.00 7.00 1.28 1.96 1.25 1981 11.00 15.00 9.50 1.65 2.25 1.42 1982 16.40 17.50 11.50. 2.01 2.15 1.41 1983 24.66 23.29 16.07 2.46 2.32 1.60 1984 29.40 36.06 27.74 2.32 2.85 2.19 Nominal coasumer prices deflated by non-agricultural price index, 1963=100 SOURCE: Annex B Supplement Table 14 Deflated Producer Prices in the Absence of Direct Price Intervention selected Agricultural Comodities, Portugat, 1960-1984 .......................................................................... .........................Price LeveLs,ESC(1963)/kg-----------*-*----- Potatoes Milk Wine Rice Tomato Corn Wheat Beef Sheep Year .......................................................................... 1960 1.22 2.12 3.00 2.71 0.57 1.71 2.13 15.88 39.77 1961 1.12 1.95 3.41 2.68 0.55 1.91 2.07 14.25 36.51 1962 1.43 2.01 2.59 4.19 0.55 1.94 2.11 14.05 36.38 1963 1.15 2.07 2.22 2.88 0.54 1.80 2.00 13.96 42.92 1964 1.09 2.31 2.20 2.80 0.53 1.80 2.14 19.70 54.11 1965 1.63 2.17 2.10 2.38 0.52 1.87 1.79 19.25 49.11 1966 1.86 2.31 2.76 2.70 0.50 1.84 1.89 18.66 49.25 1967 1.01 2.32 3.58 2.84 0.48 1.75 1.90 16.74 46.76 1968 1.09 2.28 3.31 2.85 0.47 1.73 1.68 14.50 42.60 1969 1.41 2.15 4.10 2.25 0.45 1.60 1.45 14.40 48.23 1970 1.01 2.10 3.53 2.34 0.44 1.76 1.68 17.34 47.92 1971 1.25 2.48 4.05 3.36 0.42 1.60 1.44 19.86 59.41 1972 1.54 2.27 4.39 1.84 0.38 1.32 1.56 19.44 63.50 1973 1.62 2.15 4.85 2.94 0.46 1.76 2.67 21.03 73.27 1974 1.62 2.39 2.99 4.46 0.48 2.71 3.10 21.74 76.84 1975 2.07 3.04 3.01 3.29 0.47 1.94 2.54 14.84 77.63 1976 2.56 3.05 3.36 2.76 0.49 1.65 1.92 13.46 72.29 1977 1.99 2.74 4.80 2.65 0.47 1.43 1.61 13.58 70.42 1978 1.15 3.17 7.96 2.81 0.42 1.37 1.60 13.97 62.59 1979 2.05 3.03 3.48 2.64 0.40 1.50 1.82 18.75 70.47 1980 1.44 2.44 3.25 2.36 0.37 1.42 1.79 19.53 70.65 1981 1.70 2.29 4.51 3.53 0.40 1.66 1.98 19.22 57.48 1982 1.77 2.35 3.28 2.68 0.51 1.33 1.68 19.92 57.40 1983 1.69 2.04 3.04 2.49 0.52 1.68 1.80 19.67 52.60 1984 2.11 2.29 2.69 2.76 0.47 1.88 1.91 23.88 56.73 ............................................................... SOURCE: Annex 0 Supplement Table 15 Nominal Protection Rates due to Direct Price intervention Selected Agricultural commodities, Portugal, 1960-1984 .............. .e.minal Protection Rates *......................... Potatoes mitk Wine Rice Teato Corn wheat Beef Sheep Year ---------------------------.--.............................................................. 1960 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0 0.0% 38.95 47.81 35.8% 7.0% 1961 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 10.71 46.3% 46.5% 14.2% 1962 0.0% 0.01 0.0% -33.3% 0.0% 12.6% 43.5% 48.5% 10.8% 1963 0.0% 0.01 0.0% *2.8% 0.0% 19.4% 51.0% 58.9X 15.7X 1964 0.0% 0.01 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 16.5X 39.8% 23.0% 15.3% 1965 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.4% 0.0% 34.91 74.2% 21.0% 12.1% 1966 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% 25.1K 59.8% 37.0% 22.9% 1967 0.0% 19.2% 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 24.0% 53.1% 58.2X 26.9% 1968 0.0% 19.2% 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% 24.9% 69.81 79.4% 30.4% 1969 0.0% 19.2% 0.0% 33.5% 1.9% 25.3% 86.3% 72.9% 35.3% 1970 0.0% 19.2% 0.0% 27.9% 5.6% 7.3% 56.7% 46.7% 30.9% 1971 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% *12.5% 11.1% 33.8% 90.9% 43.2% 33.9% 1972 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% 39.2% 13.0% 48,9% 61.4% 44.2% 30.8% 19T3 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% -17.4% 0.0% 0.0% -10.8% 71.0% 32.0% 1974 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% -38.7% 61.8% -22.21 -25.4% 54.4% 26.5% 1975 0.01 4.7% 0.01 -11.6% 41.0% 30.11 -8.% 124.5% 32.1% 1976 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% -0.3% 11.5% 31.1% 3.8% 155.51 35.7 1977 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% -11.8% 0.01 41.5% 19.6% 164.8% 31.3% 1978 0.0% 2.5% 0.01 -7.6% 8.7% 37.5% 23.6% 143.3X 28.4%. 1979 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 6.7% 24.4% 22.71 36.2% 114.3% 28.9% 1980 0.0% 5.8% 0.01 14.71 42.3% 21.0% 27.8% 98.21 18.2% 1981 0.0% 7.91 0.0% -22.5% 26.4% 15.71 11.5% 68.61 4.71 1982 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% 0.7% 8.51 38.81 31.0K 47.71 8.71 1983 0.0% 37.1% 0.0% 15.7% 4.6% 41.1% 31.71 82.3% 16.2% 1984 0.0% 3.4% 0.01 20.71 15.1% 36.5% 44.1% 44.21 5.41 SOURCE: -------- -------............................................ -------------*****---- SOURCE: Annex 8 Supplement Table 16 Consumer Prices in the Absence of Direct Price Intervention Selected Agricultural Commodities, Portugal, 1960-1984 Nominal Prices Deflated Prices Nominal rates of Protection Wheat Milk Corn Wheat Milk Corn Wheat Milk Corn Year Esc/kg Esc(1963)/kg (%) 19611 2.01 2.60 1.62 2.13 2.75 1.71 40.3. 0.0% 38.9% 19z1 2.03 2.60 1.87 2.07 2.65 1.91 38.9% 0.0% 10.7% 19 2.07 2.60 1.90 * 2.11 2.65 1.94 36.2% 0.0% 12.6% 2.00 2.74 1.80 2.00 2.74 1.80 43.5% 0.0% 19.4% 2.16 3.08 1.82 2.14 3.05 1.80 32.9% 0.0% 16.5% tes 1.86 3.08 1.95 1.79 2.96 1.87 65.6% 0.0% 34.9% 19t 2.04 3.30 1.99 1.89 3.05 1.84 52.0% 0.0% 25.1% 190/ 2.13 4.10 1.96 1.90 3.66 1.75 45.5% 0.0% 24.0% 19t! 1.92 4.10 1.97 1.68 3.59 1.73 61.5% 0.0% 24.9% 11ky 1.75 4.10 1.94 1.45 3.39 1.60 77.1% 0.0% 25.3% 197u 2.08 4.10 2.18 1.68 3.31 1.76 49.0% 0.0% 7.3% 1971 1.86 4.50 2.07 1.44 3.49 1.60 104.3% -8.9% 33.8% 1972 2.20 4.60 1.86 1.56 3.26 1.32 72.7% -10.9% 48.9% 19/3 3.98 4.60 2.62 2.67 3.09 1.76 -4.5% -10.9% 0.0% 1974 5.71 7.20 4.99 3.10 3.91 2.71 -33.5% -16.7% -25.9% 1975 5.39 8.90 4.12 '2.54 4.20 1.94 -16.5% -32.6% -10.2% 196 4.76 11.20 4.08 1.92 4.53 1.65 -7.6% -46.4% -9.3% I/l 5.06 12.05 4.51 1.61 3.82 1.43 -13.0% -41.9% -6.9% 1918 6.14 16.51 5.26 1.60 4.29 1.37 -2.3% -48.5% 8.4% 1919 8.24 18.51 6.78 1.82 4.09 1.50 -12.6% -46.0%'. -1.2% 1980 10.06 19.71 7.97 1.79 3.51 1.42 -28.4% -44.2% -12.2% 1981 13.17 21.87 11.05 1.98 3.28 1.66 -16.5% -31.4% -14.0% 1982 13.69 26.65 10.87 1.68 3.27 1.33 19.8% -34.3% 5.8% 1985 18.07 34.85 16.82 1.80 3.47 1.68 36.5% -33.2% -4.5% 1984 24.24 44.30 23.81 1.91 3.50 '1.88 21.3% -18.6% 16.5% S........................................................ SCA)RCL : Annex 8 Supplement Table 17 Deflated Producer Prices in the Absence of Direct and Indirect Price Intervention Selected Agricultural Coodities, Portugal, 1960*1984 .............................................................. .-------------- Price Level Esc(1963)/kg ............................ Potatoes Nilk Wine Rice Tomato Corn Wheat Beef Sheep Year .............................................................. 1960 1.05 2.03 2.58 2.34 0.49 1.49 1.84 14.06 41.13 1961 1.00 1.82 3.03 2.40 0.49 1.71 1.85. 12.99 37.79 1962 1.31 1.95 2.37 3.85 0.50 1.79 1.94 13.11 37.24 1963 1.16 2.06 2.23 2.89 0.54 1.81 2.01 14.02 42.85 1964 0.96 2.23 1.93 2.47 0.47 1.60 1.89 17.65 56.14 1965 1.46 2.10 1.87 2.13 0.46 1.68 1.60 17.47 50.60 1966 1.71 2.27 2.53 2.49 0.46 1.70 1.74 17.35 50.88 1967 0.89 2.29 3.14 2.51 0.42 1.55 1.68 15.05 49.29 1968 1.09 2.30 3.30 2.85 0.47 1.73 1.68 14.50 42.61 1969 1.54 2.26 4.46 2.44 0.49 1.73 1.56 15.41 46.07 1970 1.03 2.14 3.62 2.39 0.45 1.80 1.72 17.69 47.37 1971 1.30 2.55 4.20 3.48 0.43 1.66 1.49 20.51 58.28 1972 1.61 2.38 4.60 1.93 0.40 1.38 1.63 20.24 62.20 1973 1.74 2.23 5.19 3.14 0.50 1.87 2.85 22.29 70.92 1974 1.62 2.32 2.99 4.45 0.48 2.71 3.10 21.73 76.86 1975 2.09 2.92 3.05 3.33 0.48 1.96 2.57 14.98 77.21 1976 2.63 2.92 3.45 2.83 0.51 1.69 1.97 13.74 71.82 1977 2.34 2.76 5.63 3.10 0.55 1.66 1.87 15.48 67.79 1978 1.36 3.30 9.37 3.29 0.49 1.59 1.86 15.99 60.44 1979 1.91 2.94 3.24 2.47 0.37 1.40 1.70 17.67 71.40 1980 1.65 2.52 3.71 2.69 0.42 1.61 2.03 21.96 69.67 1981 1.85 2.26 4.91 3.84 0.43 1.79 2.14 20.69 57.56 1982 2.04 2.35 3.77 3.08 0.58 1.52 1.92 22.55 57.23 1983 2.02 2.13 3.62 2.95 0.62 1.98 2.13 22.94 51.67 1984 2.47 2.41 3.14 3.21 0.54 ' 2.18 2.22 27.40 56.26 ----O-U --R ----E------A---- ------------9................................................ -- SOURCE: Annex 8 Supplement Table 18 Nominal Protection Rates due to Direct and,Indirect Price intervention, Selected Agricultural Commodities, Portugal, 1960-1984 ............................................................. ................Nominal Protection Rates % .......................... Potatoes Milk Wine Rice Tomato Corn Wheat Beef Sheep Year ..... .................... .................................... 1960 16.2% 4.4% 16.2% 17.8% 16.2% 59.7% 70.5% 53.3% 3.5% 1961 12.3% 6.8% 12.3% 15.6% 12.3% 23.4% 63.3% 60.7% 10.3% 1962 9.1% 2.9% 9.1% -27.4% 9.1% 22.2% 55.9% 59.1% 8.3% 1963 -0.5% 0.4% -0.5% -3.2% -0.5% 18.9% 50.3% 58.3% 15.9% 1964 13.8% 3.5% 13.8% 18.5% 13.8% 31.5% 58.2% 37.3% 11.1% 1965 12.1% 3.3% 12.1% 35.5% 12.1% 50.1% 94.2% 33.3% 8.8% 1966 9.1% 1.8% 9.1% 19.9% 9.1% 35.7% 73.4% 47.4% 19.0% 1967 13.8% 20.6% 13.8% 19.0% 13.8% 39.9% 73.0% 75.9% 20.4% 1968 0.0% 18.0% 0.0% 9.3% 0.0% 24.9% 69.9% 79.4% 30.4% 1969 -8.0% 13.3% -8.0% 23.1% -6.3% 15.9% 72.2% 61.5% 41.7% 1970 -2.4% 16.9% -2.4% 25.0% 3.0% 4.9% 53.1% 43.7% 32.4% 1971 -3.7% 6.4% -3.7% -15.7% 7.0% 29.2% 84.2% 38.6% 36.5% 1972 -4.6% 7.1% -4.6% 33.2% 7.8% 42.7% 54.4% 38.5% 33.5% 1973 -6.5% 8.2% -6.5% -22.6% -6.5% -6.1% -16.4% 61.3% 36.4% 1974 0.1% 14.7% 0.1% -38.6% 61.9% -22.2% -25.3% 54.5% 26.4% 1975 -1.2% 8.9% -1.2% -12.6% 39.3% 28.7% -9.4% 122.4% 32.9% 1976 -2.5% 8.6% -2.5% -2.7% 8.7% 28.0% 1.3% 150.3% 36.6% 1977 -14.7% 2.8% -14.7% -24.5% -14.7% 21.9% 2.7% 132.3% 36.4% 1978 -15.1% -1.6% -15.1% -21.2% -7.6% 18.1% 5.8% 112.6% 32.9% 1979 7.3% 5.2% 7.3% 14.2% 33.5% 30.9% 45.6% 127.5% 27.2% 1980 -12.5% 2.5% -12.5% 0.8% 24.5% 6.8% 12.5% 76.3% 19.9% 1981 -8.1% 9.5% -8.1% -28.6% 16.1% 6.8% 2.8% 56.6% 4.5% 1982 -13.2% 6.3% -13.2% -12.2% -5.8% 21.8% 14.5% 30.5% 9.0% 1983 -16.1% 31.6% -16.1% -2.4% -12.2% 19.6% 11.4% 56.3% 18.3% 1984 -14.3% -1.7% -14.3% 3.9% -1.4% 18.0% 24.4% 25.6% 6.3% SOURCE: Annex B Supplement Table 19 Consumer Prices in the Absence of Direct and Indirect Price interventions, Selected Agricultural Canodities, Portugat, 1960-1984 ......................................................................................... Nominal Prices Deftated Prices Nominal rates of Protection Wheat Hilk Corn Wheat Mk . Corn Wheat M ik Corn Year Esc/kg Esc(1963)/kg M ......................................................................................... 1960 1.82 2.60 1.47 1.84 2.64 1.49 61.9% 4.4% 59.7% 1961 1.94 2.60 1.79 1.85 2.48 1.71 55.1% 6.8% 23.4% 1962 1.96 2.60 1.80 1.94 2.58 1.79 48.0% 2.9% 22.2% 1963 2.02 2.74 1.82 2.01 2.73 1.81 42.8% 0.4% 18.9% 1964 1.97 3.08 1.67 1.89 2.95 1.60 50.4% 3.5% 31.5% 1965 1.72 3.08 1.81 1;60 2.87 1.68 84.6% 3.3% 50.1% 1966 1.91 3.30 1.87 1.74 3.00 1.70 64.9% 1.8% 35.7% 1967 1.91 4.10 1.76 1.68 3.62 1.55 64.5% 1.1% 39.9% 1968 1.90 4.10 1.95 1.68 3.63 1.73 61.5% -1.0% 24.9% 1969 1.80 4.10 1.99 1.56 3.57 1.73 63.7% -5.0% 15.9% 1970 2.09 4.10 2.19 1.72 3.37 1.80 45.6% -2.0% 4.9% 1971 1.88 4.50 2.09 1.49 3.58 1.66 97.2% -11.3% 29.2% 1972 2.19 4.60 1.85. 1.63 3.43 1.38 65.3% -15.2% 42.7% 1973 4.08 4.60 2.68 2.85 3.21 1.87 -10.5% -14.3% -6.1% 1974 5.88 7.20 5.14 3.10 3.80 2.71 -33.42 -14.1% -25.8% 1975 5.67 8.90 4.33 2.57 4.03 1.96 -17.5% -29.8% -11.2% 1976 5.09 11.20 4.36 1.97 4.33 1.69 -9.8% -44.1% -11.5% 1977 5.85 12.05 5.20 1.87 3.85 1.66 -25.3% -42.3% -19.7% 1978 6.89 16.51 5.88 1.86 4.46 1.59 -16.3% -50.5%, -6.92 1979 7.94 18.51 6.54 1.70 3.97 1.40 -6.6% -44.4% 5.4 1980 11.08 19.71 8.75 2.03 3.62 1.61 -37.0% .45.9Z -22.5% 1981 14.50 21.87 12.15 2.14 3.23 1.79 -23.0% -30.4% -20.6% 1982 15.66 26.65 12.39 1.92 3.27 1.52 4.7% -34.3% -7.2% 1983 20.51 34.85 19.05 2.13 3.62 1.98 15.4% -35.9% -19.OX 1984 26.70 44.30 26.18 2.22 3.68 2.18 4.72 -22.6% 0.7% ............................. .................. ........ ..... .............. SOURCE: Annex 8 Supplement Table 20 Deflated Producer Values-added in the Absence of Direct Price Intervention, Selected Agricultural Coumodities, Portugal, 1960-1984 ..... .... ....... ........... ................ ................. .------- - - .Relative Values Added, Esc(1963)/kg-----...... Potatoes Nilk Wine Rice Tomato Corn Wheat Beef Sheep Year ..... ................ ....... ................................. 1960 0.14 0.78 2.84 0.67 0.47 0.82 0.41 -7.30 0.74 1961 0.07 0.54 3.17 0.68 0.43 1.03 0.39 -8.97 -2.59 1962 0.44 0.53 2.12 2.33 0.41 1.03 0.46 -9.41 -3.05 1963 0.12 0.48 1.60 0.80 0.36 0.79 0.25 -9.95 1.70 1964 0.06 0.63 1.45 0.68 0.33 0.73 0.37 -5.19 10.88 1965 0.54 0.48 1.27 0.31 0.30 0.76 0.07 *4.93 6.23 1966 0.69 0.57 1.72 0.57 0.26 0.69 0.17 -4.70 6.33 1967 0.07 0.59 2.23 0.73 0.24 0.63 0.25 -4.90 5.60 1968 0.11 0.50 1.88 0.65 0.21 0.55 0.05 -6.60 1.48 1969 0.36 0.45 2.35 0.30 0.19 0.48 -0.04 -5.50 6.52 1970 0.10 0.42 1.81 0.37 0.17 0.56 0.15 -2.71 7.03 1971 0.25 0.64 1.96 0.95 0.15 0.46 0.05 -0.26 13.68 1972 0.42 0.55 2.02 0.18 0.13 0.31 0.16 0.58 16.35 1973 0.42 0.39 1.98 0.69 0.15 0.48 0.67 0.86 18.14 1974 0.39 0.47 1.16 1.32 0.16 0.91 0.84 0.52 19.15 1975 0.63 0.76 1.22 0.88 0.16 0.55 0.57 -3.05 19.45 1976 0.84 0.77 1.31 0.62 0.17 0.41 0.30 -2.58 16.93 1977 0.53 0.60 1.83 0.50 0.14 0.30 0.14 -1.85 15.48 1978 0.17 0.76 3.04 0.52 0.12 0.25 0.11 -1.82 11.87 1979 0.49 0.62 1.15 0.41 0.10 0.27 0.17 -0.50 13.09 1980 0.25 0.34 1.04 0.25 0.09 0.21 0.10 -0.45 11.66 1981 0.31 0.22 1.47 0.63 0.09 0.27 0.12 -1.34 5.41 1982 0.31 0.26 0.98 0.27 0.12 0.13 -0.02 -0.86 5.20 1983 0.24 0.11 0.87 0.12 0.12 0.22 -0.05 -3.25 0.47 1984 0.38 0.10 0.77 0.23 0.11 0.31 0.02 -1.22 3.16 .............................. SOURCE: Annex B Supplement Table 21 Effective Rates of Protection due to Direct Price Intervention, Selected Agricultural Comnodities, Portugal. 1960-1984 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........................ .......-....................* -Effective Rate of Protection % --------------- ----- Potatoes Milk Wine Rice Tomato Corn Wheat Beef Sheep Year .. . .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........................ 1960 -1.5% -6.1% -0.1% 9.2% -0.8% 98.4% 297.0% -83.1% 359.6% 1961 0.4% -1.2% -0.0% '17.0% -0.6% 22.8% 287.9% -83.2% -233.0% 1962 0.4% -0.7% -0.0% -63.8% -0.4% 26.0% 220.0% -76.8% -148.4% 1963 9.9% 7.3% 0.3% -0.5% 0.5% 49.0% 445.8% -86.8% 502.5% 1964 17.2% 5.4% 0.3% 27.6% 0.5% 41.6% 231.6% -87.0% 84.7% 1965 1.8% 2.4% 0.3% 160.9% 0.5% 77.3% 1646.1% -69.7% 100.2% 1966 1.2% 3.1% 0.2% 49.0% 0.5% 56.9% 563.4% -119.9% 160.8% 1967 11.6% 58.4% 0.1% 21.4% 0.5% 53.1% 315.4% -149.6% 185.3% 1968 11.7% 69.1% 0.3% 40.1% 1.5% 61.0% 1835.8% -127.0% 734.4% t- 1969 3.3% 69.1% 0.2% 186.7% 4.3% 62.7% -2020.8% -133.7% 199.5% 1970 6.8% 62.8% 0.2% 115.0% 9.0% 17.4% 407.3% -187.3% 139.1% 1971 3.3% 19.6% 0.2% -19.7% 17.7% 70.8% 1631.4% -1738.0% 85.7% 1972 1.4% 233% 0.1% 223.3% 20.1% 111.5% 322.5% 680.8% 62.5% 1973 1.3% 35.7% 0.1% -29.4% 0.7% 3.2% .14.6% 810.8% 61.7% 1974 3.1% 46.6% 0.5% -54.1% 86.1% -26.1% -33.4% 1305.7% 62.0% 1975 -0.1% 10.6% -0.1% -20.7% 55.3% 50.0% -17.7% -293.5% 61.7% 1976 3.0% 15.6% 1.2% 9.4% 18.9% 70.6% 43.0% -396.7% 79.4% 1977 3.0% 12.8% 0.5% -19.8% 2.6% 96.3% 132.9% -534.1% 66.3% 1978 16.8% 8.5% 0.6% -9.1% 18.3% 108.7% 203.6% -470.8% 70.2% 1979 4.6% 9.6% 1.3% 23.9% 41.7% 67.2% 188.3% -1731.9% 66.6% 1980 13.5% 43.8% 2.0% 87.0% 77.3% 92.3% 327.5% -1874.6% 66.2% 1981 10.4% 72.1% 1.3% -32.8% 51.4% 65.3% 174.5% -453.5% 68.0% 1982 6.2% 28.7% 1.2% 11.5% 15.7% 169.6% -1466.6% -423.7% 48.0% 1983 6.2% 161.6% 0.8% 168.7% 10.2% 130.1% -626.9% -200.2% 1071.1% 1984 -0.1% 6.2% -0.1% 91.1% 23.1% 79.0% 1259.2% -290.1% 26.8% SOURCE: Annex B Supplement Table 22 Deflated Producer Values-added in the Absence of Direct and Indirect Price Intervention, Selected Agricultural Conmodities, Portugal, 1960-1984 .-------------Relative Values Added, Esc(1963)/kg------------- Potatoes Milk Wine Rice Tomato. Corn Wheat Beef Sheep Year 1960 -0.11 0.57 2.31 0.20 0.37 0.55 0.08 -10.98 -1.27 1961 -0.10 0.36 2.73 0.34 0.35 0.81 0.15 -10.97 -2.73 1962 0.29 0.37 1.88 1.95 0.36 0.87 0.29 -11.76 -5.29 1963 0.12 0.35 1.61 0.81 0.37 0.80 0.26 -11.66 -2.11 1964 -0.09 0.48 1.19 0.37 0.27 0.55 0.16 -8.12 10.03 1965 0.37 0.35 1.07 0.09 0.25 0.60 -0.07 -7.42 5.03 1966 0.55 0.46 1.53 0.39 0.23 0.58 0.06 -6.89 4.91 1967 -0.04 0.49 1.90 0.48 0.20 0.49 0.10 -7.27 4.70 1968 0.11 0.42 1.88 0.65 0.21 0.55 0.05 -7.95 -1.40 1969 0.45 0.41 2.59 0.43 0.22 0.56 0.02 -6.61 1.55 1970 0.12 0.36 1.86 0.41 0.18 0.58 0.17 -3.62 4.36 1971 0.28 0.61 2.04 1.02 0.16 0.49 0.07 -0.96 10.86 1972 0.46 0.54 2.13 0.22 0.14 0.34 0.20 -0.10 13.43 1973 0.48 0.38 2.13 0.77 0.17 0.53 0.74 0.58 15.41 1974 0.39 0.41 1.16 1.32 0.16 0.91 0.84 0.15 18.37 1975 0.65 0.68 1.24 0.89 0.17 0.56 0.59 -3.31 18.58 1976 0.87 0.70 1.35 0.64 0.17 0.42 0.31 -2.70 16.23 1977 0.68 0.57 2.17 0.66 0.18 0.38 0.22 -1.68 13.25 1978 0.25 0.75 3.61 0.70 0.14 0.33 0.20 -1.88 9.37 1979 0.44 0.56 1.06 0.35 0.09 0.24 0.13 -1.26 12.59 1980 0.33 0.30 1.22 0.35 0.11 0.27 0.16 -0.47 9.47 1981 0.37 0.17 1.61 0.72 0.10 0.31 0.16 -1.32 4.43 1982 0.40 0.21 1.15 0.39 0.15 0.18 0.04 -0.57 3.92 1983 0.35 0.06 1.08 0.25 0.15 0.30 0.02 -3.38 -2.30 1984 0.51 0.05 0.93 0.37 0.13 0.41 0.10 -1.25 0.46 S............................. SOURCE: Annex B Supplement Table 23 Effective Rates of Protection due to Direct and Indirect Price Intervention, Selected Agricultural Comodities, Portugal, 1960-1984 ...............................Effective Rate of Protection % --------------------- Potatoes Milk Uine Rice Tomato Corn Wheat Beef Sheep Year 1960 -229.0% 29.7% 22.8% 260.2% 26.1% 195.5% 1940.2% -88.8% -367.3% 1961 -168.3% 50.6% 16.1% 133.8% 19.2% 56.6% 912.2% -86.3% -226.5% 1962 52.7% 41.7% 12.8% -56.8% 13.7% 49.3% 413.2% -81.4% -127.9% 1963 3.8% 47.3% -0.4% *2.2% -0.3% 47.5% 427.2% -88.7% -584.8% 1964 -183.1% 38.8% 21.9% 134.6% 23.2% 88.5% 680.5% -91.7% 100.3% 1965 49.9% 41.6% 19.4% 786.1% 20.4% 123.6% -1867.2% *79.8% 148.0% 1966 26.6% 29.5% 12.6% 116.8% 15.3% 86.7% 1778.1% -113.6% 236.2% 1967 -269.2% 91.8% 17.5% 85.5% 23.2% 97.9% 922.6% -133.4% 240.1% 1968 12.1% 100.3% 0.4% 40.3% 1.5% 61.1% 1853.1% -122.4% -982.8% 1969 -17.7% 87.5% -9.0% 104.0% -8.0% 39.4% 3593.3% -128.1% 1155.3% 1970 -9.3% 86.0% -2.7% 97.2% 5.0% 12.6% 343.8% -165.3% 285.7% 1971 -7.8% 26.4% -4.1% -25.2% 11.2% 60.1% 1021.4% -541.4% 133.8% 1972 -7.7% 26.9 -5.0% 161.3% 12.1% 94.1% 252.4% -4511.9% 97.8% 1973 -10.3% 42.3% -7.0% -37.5% -8.0% -6.3% -23.3% 1245.7% 90.3% 1974 3.3% 67.3% 0.6% -54.0% 86.3% -26.0% -33.3% 4953.8% 68.9% 1975 -2.0% 23.3% -1.4% -22.2% 52.8% 47.3% -19.5% -278.4% 69.2% 1976 -0.4% 27.8% -1.7% 4.8% 15.2% 64.4% 35.4% -383.0% 87.1% 1977 -18.8% 19.81% -15.4% -39.7% -16.2% 53.7% 46.0% -576.2% 94.4% 1978 -22.3% 9.5% -15.3% -32.0% -5.0% 59.1% 76.0% -459.3% 115.7% 1979 17.1% 21.0% 9.7% 43.9% 56.7% 88.5% 262.2% -740.0% 73.2% 1980 -12.5% 60.5% -12.4% 35.1% 46.7% 52.6% 163.3% -1821.8% 104.7% 1981 -5.9% 121.3% -7.7% -41.7% 33.9% 43.5% 102.5% -459.4% 104.8% 1982 -18.8% 55.81 -14.0% -21.7% -4.1% 95.8% 485.3% -593.7% 96.3% 1983 -28.4% 408.3% -18.1% 32.5% -13.1% 66.7% 897.2% -196.2% -337.4% 1984 -25.8% 102.9% -17.5% li.1% -1.5% 39.0% 226.2% -285.8% 768.3% SOURCE: Annex 8 Supplement Table 24 Short-Run Effect on output of direct price interventions, Portugal, 1960-1984 ........POTAFO............ ........MILK...................WINE......... actual no-policy change actual no-policy change actual no-policy change Year output output output output output output output output output *000 tons (M) '000 tons (%) *000 tons (%) 1960 1,041 1,041 0.0% 329 330 -0.2% 11,091 11,071 0.2% 1961 1,056 1,055 0.0% 356 356 -0.0% 7,069 7,068 0.0% 1962 894 893 0.0% 345 345 -0.0% 14,819 14,823 -0.0% 1963 1,145 1,142 0.2% 351 351 0.1% 12,495 12,552 -0.5% 1964 1,143 1,140 0.3% 320 320 0.0% 13,044 13,108 -0.5% 1965 888 887 0.1% 366 366 -0.0% 14,197 14,227 -0.2% 1966 923 922 0.1% 357 357 0.0% 8,307 8,326 -0.2% 1967 1,296 1,305 -0.7% 348 338 3.1% 9,273 9,531 -2.71 1968 1,083 1,091 -0.7% 404 391 3.5% 10,911 11,284 -3.3% 1969 1,126 1,137 -0.9% 444 429 3.6% 7,581 7,824 -3.1% 1970 1,220 1,230 -0.8% 458 444 3.3% 10,629 10,941 -2.6% 1971 1,124 1,125 -0.1% 433 428 1.1% 8,321 8,426 -1.2% 1972 1,139 1,142 -0.3% 447 441 1.4% 7,550 7,648 -1.3% 1973 1,086 1,092 -0.5% 462 453 2.0% 10,063 10,245 -1.8% 1974 1,115 1,121 -0.6% 484 470 2.9% 12,913 13,275 -2.7% 1975 1,012 1,015 -0.2% 515 511 0.71 8,137 8,180 -0.5% 1976 918 917 0.1% 528 524 0.8% 8,446 8,553 -1.2% 1977 1,201 1,198 0.2% 560 557 0.6% 5,895 5,962 -1.1% 1978 1,128 1,108 1.8% 569 570 -0.2% 5,678 5,829 -2.6% 1979 1,021 1,016 0.5% 656 655 0.2% 13,199 13,344 -1.1% 1980 1,118 1,107 1.0% 735 723 1.6% 9,200 9,558 -3.7% 1981 829 827 0.3% 799 777 2.8% 8,819 9,201 -4.1% 1982 983 979 0.4% 793 786, 0.8% 10,031 10,196 -1.6% 1983 905 917 -1.3% 794 753 5.5% 8,249 8,674 -4.9% 1984 1,038 1,038 -0.0% 780 779 0.1% 8,393 8,399 -0.1% SOURCE: Amex C Supplement Table 24 Short-Run Effect on output of direct price interventions, Portugal, 1960-1984 (cont) ........RICE(a)......... .........TOMATO(b)...... .........CORN........... actual no-policy change actual no-policy change actual no-policy change Year output output output output output output output output output '000 tons (2) '000 tons (%) '000 tons (%) 1960 151 162 -6.6% 55 61 -9.5% 466 425 9.6% 1961 177 179 -0.7% 76 78 -2.7% 632 620 1.9% 1962 174 183 *5.2% 148 148 -0.4% 599 577 3.7% 1963 166 172 -3.5% 188 195 -4.0% 523 500 4.7% 1964 181 184 -1.2% 263 275 -4.4% 597 577 3.3% 1965 139 134 3.9% 413 479 -13.8% 459 437 5.0% 1966 154 156 -1.0% 515 555 - -7.2% 565 539 4.8% 1967 146 150 -2.5% 799 849 -5.9% 577 549 5.0% 1968 149 151 -1.5% 867 933 -7.1% 548 521 5.2% 1969 176 159 10.7% 827 957 -13.6% 553 548 0.9% 1970 195 181 7.8% 734 755 -2.9% 581 594 -2.2% 1971 162 178 -9.4% 625 602 3.7% 526 489 7.7% 1972 164 152 7.7% 814 925 -12.0% 519 493 5.1% 1973 168 173 -2.9% 849 835 1.7% 509 503 1.2% 1974 130 147 -12.1% 714 435 64.4% 486 527 -7.9% 1975 133 151 -12.1% 826 629 31.4% 451 439 2.8% 1976 97 105 -7.6% 493 477 3.4% 379 352 7.4% 1977 102 113 -10.3% 666 724 -8.1% 442 394 12.0% 1978 135 153 -12.1% 632 634 -0.3% 449 401 12.1% 1979 145 157 -7.4% 553 472 17.2% 461 443 4.1% 1980 155 167 -7.5% 457 340 34.4% 489 478 2.4% 1981 112 129 -13.0% 395 313 26.0% 377 359 4.8% 1982 143 164 -12.7% 523 557 -6.0% 421 366 15.1% 1983 109 110 -0.4% 558 644 -13.4% 424 387 9.6% 1984 134 137 -1.8% 729 723 0.9% 481 459 4.9% a) paddy b) tomatoes for processing Supplement Table 24 Short-Run Effect on output of direct price interventions, Portugal, 1960-1984 (cont) .........HEAT............ ...........BEEF........... ..........SHEEP.......... actual no-policy change actual no-policy change actual no-policy change Year output output output output output output output output output '000 tons (%) '000 tons (%) '000 tons (%) 1960 492 383 28.4% 40 40 -0.3% 19 19 -1.8% 1961 430 343 25.3% 44 43 3.2% 19 19 -1.1% 1962 645 524 23.1% 50 48 4.6% 19 20 -1.4% 1963 592 467 26.7% 47 44 6.0% 19 19 -1.3% 1964 472 379 24.4% 43 44 -2.8% 23 23 -0.2% 1965 612 409 49.6% 58 66 -11.6% 26 26 -1.9% 1966 312 229 36.2% 61 63 -3.4% 26 26 -0.4% 1967 637 499 27.8% 50 48 4.8% 22 22 -0.1% 1968 748 548 36.3% 58 54 7.4% 18 18 -0.7% 1969 454 304 49.1% 79 78 1.2% 18 19 -0.7% 1970 548 415 32.1% 87 87 0.1% 19 19 0.5% 1971 794 505 57.1% 74 82 -9.3% 18 18 -0.4% 1972 604 445 35.9% 73 74 -1.8% 18 18 0.4% 1973 517 650 -20.4% 81 65 24.0% 20 19 2.9% 1974 534 742 -28.1% 84 69 22.5% 18 18 3.1% 1975 601 826 -27.2% 98 70 40.6% 18 18 1.7% 1976 686 897 -23.6% 79 54 47.4% 19 18 1.0% 1977 224 259 -13.5% 77 53 46.8% 20 20 -0.3% 1978 250 269 -7.1% 88 63 39.1% 19 19 -0.4% 1979 248 232 6.6% 89 -70 26.8% 19 19 -0.3% 1980 430 415 3.6% 97 78 24.0% 20 20 -0.9% 1981 315 324 -2.9% 114 96 19.0% 20 20 -1.3% 1982 425 371 14.3% 117 109 7.5% 22 22 -1.2% 1983 327 300 9.0% 102 86 18.1% 23 23 -1.0% 1984 466 369 26.3% 93 88 5.1% 22 24 -7.4% Supplement Table 25 'utlative effect on output of direct price interventions, Portugal, 1960-1984 ........POTATO............ ........MILK........... .........WINE........ actual no-policy change actual no-policy change actual no-policy change Year output output output output output output output output output *000 tons (%) 000 tons (%) *000 tons () 1960 1,041 1,040 0.1% 329 331 -0.5% 11,091 11,046 0.4% 1961 1,056 1,055 0.0% 356 356 -0.1% 7,069 7,066 0.0% 1962 894 893 0.1% 345 345 -0.1% 14,819 14,822 -0.0% 1963 1,145 1,143 0.2% 351 350 0.4% 12,495 12,588 -0.7% 1964 1,143 1,141 0.2% 320 319 0.3% 13,044 13,144 -0.8% 1965 888 887 0.1% 366 365 0.1% 14,197 14,239 -0.3% 1966 923 923 0.1% 357 356 0.2% 8,307 8,337 -0.4% 1967 1,296 1,326 -2.3% 348 323 7.9% 9,273 9,898 -6.3% 1968 1,083 1,110 -2.5% 404 371 9.0% 10,911 11,798 -7.5% 1969 1,126 1,157 -2.7% 444 407 9.1K .7,581 8,177 -7.3% 1970 1,220 1,250 -2.4% 458 423 8.3% 10,629 11,388 -6.7% 1971 1,124 1,131 -0.6% 433 421 2.8% 8,321 8,546 *2.6% 1972 1,139 1,150 -1.0% 447 431 3.5% 7,550 7,776 -2.9% 1973 1,086 1,103 -1.5% 462 439 5.2% 10,063 10,499 -4.1% 1974 1,115 1,139 -2.1% 484 450 7.6% 12,913 13,773 -6.2% 1975 1,012 1,019 -0.6% 515 506 1.8% 8,137 8,245 -1.3% 1976 918 922 -0.4% 528 515 2.5% 8,446 8,662 -2.5% 1977 1,201 1,202 -0.1% 560 550 1.8% 5,895 6,023 -2.1% 1978 1,128 1,107 1.9% 569 566 0.5% 5,678 5,898 -3.7% 1979 1,021 1,018 0.3% 656 649 1.0% 13,199 13,440 -1.8% 1980 1,118 1,118 -0.0% 735 697 5.3% 9,200 9,878 -6.9% 1981 829 839 -1.2% 799 740 8.0% 8,819 .9,618 -8.3% 1982 983 984 -0.2% 793 773 2.6% 10,031* 10,344 -3.0% 1983 905 944 -4.1% 794 696 14.1% 8,249 9,306 -11.4% 1984 1,038 1,039 -0.1% 780 778 0.3% 8,393 8,409 -0.2% SOURCE: Annex C Supplemen-t Tal.e 25 Cumulative effect on output of direct price interventions, Portugal, 1960-1984 (cont) .........RICE. ..TOMATO.................. ............ .....RICE ............ ..........TMTO ......... .......CORN ......... actual no-policy change actual no-policy change actual no-policy change Year output output output output output output output output output '000 tons (%) 000 tons (%) '000 tons (%) .... ............. .... ....................................... 1960 151 165 -8.1% 55 62 -12.0% 466 417 12.0% 1961 177 178 -0.5% 76 78 -3.6% 632 618 2.2% 1962 174 189 *8.0% 148 147 0.4% 599 569 5.2% 1963 166 174 *4.4% 188 197 -5.0% 523 494 5.9% 1964 181 183 -0.8% 263 280 -5.9% 597 574 3.9% 1965 139 127 9.0% 413 515 -19.8% 459 438 4.8% 1966 154 154 0.1% 515 572 -9.9% 565 535 5.5% 1967 146 150 -2.4% 799 866 -7.8% 577 544 6.0% 1968 149 150 -0.5% 867 961 -9.8% 548 517 6.01 1969 176 147 20.0% 827 1,048 -21.1% 553 559 -1.2% 1970 195 171 13.9% 734 782 -6.1% 581 606 -4.1% 1971 162 185 -12.5% 625 594 5.1% 526 479 9.9% 1972 164 139 17.5% 814 1,016 -19.9% 519 500 3.7% 1973 168 176 -4.6%. 849 826 2.7% 509 499 1.8% 1974 130 156 -17.2% 714 393 81.8% 486 534 -9.1% 1975 133 158 -16.0% 826 591 39.8% 451 435 3.8% 1976 97 107 -9.0% 493 474 4.0% 379 347 9.1% 1977 102 118 -13.5% 666 737 -9.7% 442 383 15.3% 1978 135 159 -15.4% 632 633 -0.2% 449 390 15.3% 1979 145 159 -8.4% 553 458 20.9% 461 440 4.81 1980 155 165 -6.1% 457 324 41.0% 489 480 1.8% 1981 112 135 -17.3% 395 296 33.2% 377 354 6.4% 1982 143 170 -15.6% 523 567 *7.7% 421 355 18.81 1983 109 105 3.9% 558 693 -19.6% 424 384 10.5% 1984 134 134 0.3% 729 733 -0.5% 481 457 5.2% Supplement Table 25 Camlative effect on output of direct price interventions, Portugal, 1960-1984 (cont) .........SIEAT............ ...........BEEF........... ..........SHEEP.......... actual no-policy change actual no-policy change actual no-poticy change Year output output output output output output output output output *000 tons (%) *000 tons (M) '000 tons (%) 1960 492 385 28.0% 40 35 13.6% 19 19 -2.1% 1961 430 353 21.6% 44 36 21.91 19 19 -0.4% 1962 645 544 18.7% 50 40 24.71 19 20 -1.3% 1963 592 490 20.8% 47 36 30.3% 19 19 -0.8% 1964 472 377 25.1% 43 41 4.9% 23 22 1.4% 1965 612 390 57.2% 58 62 -6.7% 26 26 -1.1% 1 312 228 36.7% 61 55 9.4% 26 26 2.0% 197 637 523 21.8% 50 39 27.9% 22 21 2.5% 1968 748 584 28.0% 58 .41 39.5% 18 17 1.71 1959 454 313 45.0% 79 61 28.9% 18 18 2.6% 1970 548 424 29.3% 87 74 17.3% 19 18 4.1% 1971 794 493 61.1% 74 71 3.9% 18 17 3.5% 1972 604 449 34.5% 73 64 13.8% 18 17 4.0% 1973 51? 881 -41.3% 81 52 56.91 20 19 6.6% 1974 534 1,012 -47.3% 84 57 48.5% 18 17 6.5% 1975 601 1,523 -60.5% 98 , 49 98.9% 18 17 3.8% 1976 686 1,821 -62.4% 79 36 119.7% 19 18 2.8% 1977 224 462 -51.4% 77 35 122.8% 20 20 0.2% 1978 250 409 -38.9% 88 43 104.7% 19 19 0.2% 1979 248 295 -16.1% 89 50 77.7% 19 18 1.1% 1980 430 512 -16.1% 97 58 68.4% 20 20 -0.8% 1981 315 382 -17.5% 114 75 51.0% 20 20 -2.6% 1982 425 393 7.9% 117 91 28.0% 22 22 -1.3% 1983 327 348 -6.0% 102 66 54.71 23 23 -0.91 1984 466 369 26.02 93 73 26.1% 22 26 -16.3% Supplement Table 26 - Short-Run Effect on output of direct and indirect price interventions, Portugal, 1960-1984 ........POTATO............ .......MILK........... .........IE.......... actual no-policy change actual no-policy change actual no-policy change Year output output output output output output output output output '000 tons (%) *000 tons (%) '000 tons (%) 1960 1,041 1,153 -9.7% 329 322 2.1% 11,091 9,777 13.4% 1961 1,056 1,115 -5.3% 356 351 1.4% 7,069 6,604 7.0% 1962 894 872 2.5% 345 350 -1.5% 14,819 15,154 -2.2% 1963 1,145 1,148 -0.3% 351 346 1.4% 12,495 12,659 -1.3% 1964 1,143 1,229 -6.9% 320 315 1.6% 13,044 11,922 9.4% 1965 888 861 3.1% 366 374 -2.3% 14,197 14,524 -2.2% 1966 923 907 1.7% 357 361 -1.3% 8,307 8,414 -1.3% 1967 1,296 1,472 -12.0% 348 326 6.91 9,273 8,359 10.9% 1968 1,083 1,097 -1.3% 404 384 5.2% 10,911 11,431 -4.5% 1969 1,126 1,154 -2.4% 444 418 6.3% 7,581 7,908 -4.1% 1970 1,220 1,241 -1.7% 458 436 5.1% 10,629 11,046 -3.8% 1971 1,124 1,133 -0.8% 433 423 2.3% 8,321 8,456 -1.6% 1972 1,139 1,151 -1.1% 447 435 2.6% 7,550 7,670 -1.6% 1973 1,086 1,104 -1.6% 462 445 3.8% 10,063 10,297 -2.3% 1974 1,115 1,127 -1.1% 484 464 4.3% 12,913 13,417 -3.8% 1975 1,012 1,020 -0.7% 515 505 1.8% 8,137 8,235 -1.2% 1976 918 923 -0.6% 528 516 2.3% 8,446 8,620 -2.0% 1977 1,201 1,223 -1.9% 560 538 4.1% 5,895 6,030 -2.2% 1978 1,128 1,135 -0.6% 569 552 3.1% 5,678 5,854 -3.0% 1979 1,021 1,006 1.5% 656 661 -0.7% 13,199 13,412 -1.6% 1980 1,118 1,134 -1.4% 735 696 5.5% 9,200 9,649 -4.7% 1981 829 845 -1.9% 799 746 7.1% 8,819 9,388 -6.1% 1982 983 1,001 -1.8% 793 757 4.7% 10,031 10,359 -3.2% 1983 905 963 -6.0% 794 675 17.5% 8,249 9,436 -12.6% 1984 1,038 1,059 -2.0% 780 747 4.3% 8,393 8,581 -2.2% SOURCE: Annex C Supplement Table 26 Short-Ran Lifect on output of direct and indirect price interventions, Portugal, 1960-1984(cont) ........RICE............ ............TOMATO......... .........CORM......... actual no-policy change actual no-policy change actual no-policy change Year output output output output output output output output output *000 tons (%) '000 tons (%) '000 tons (Z) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....... .................. 19t0 151 160 -5.3% 55 61 -10.4% 466 409 14.0% 19c1 177 176 1.0% 76 74 1.6% 632 620 1.9% 1962 174 188 -7.7% 148 141 5.0% 599 570 5.0% 19r3 166 172 -3.4% 188 196 -4.2% 523 500 4.6% 1964 181 181 0.2% 263 264 -0.3% 597 573 4.2% 19e5 139 101 37.6% 413 609 -32.2% 459 480 -4.5% 1966 154 154 0.1% 515 543 -5.1% 565 536 5.4% 1967 146 150 -3.0% 799 807 -1.0% 577 540 6.7% 1968 149 151 -1.5% 867 933 -7.1% 548 521 5.2% 1969 176 165 6.5% 827 957 -13.6% 553 544 1.6% 1970 195 182 7.0% 734 761 -3.6% 581 593 -1.9% 1971 162 176 -8.4% 625 616 1.4% 526 492 7.1% 1972 164 157 4.7% 814 919 -11.5% 519 492 5.4% 1913 168 171 -1.9% 849 868 -2.1% .509 504 0.9% 1974 130 147 - -12.1% 714 434 64.5% 486 527 -7.9% 1915 133 150 -11.8% 826 634 30.2% 451 439 2.7% 1976 97 105 -7.1% 493 483 2.0% 379 354 7.0% 1977 102 109 -6.3% 666 772 -13.8% 442 407 8.7% 1978 135 146 -7.5% 632 684 -7.7% 449 415 8.4% 1979 145 159 -8.8% 553 450 23.0% 461 440 4.8% 1980 155 164 -5.9% 457 374 22.1% 489 481 1.6% 1981 112 125 -10.2% 395 334 18.1% 377 363 3.8% 1982 143 155 -7.7% 523 581 -10.0% 421 383 10.0% 1983 109 111 -2.0% 558 657 -15.1% 424 396 7.2% 1984 134 136 -1.6% 729 771 -5.4% 481 464 3.8% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Supplement Table 26 Short-Ru Effect on output of direct and indirect price interventions, Portugal, 1960-1984 (cont) .. . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ............................ .........HEAT............ ...........BEEF........... ..........SHEEP.......... actual no-poticy change actual no-poticy change actual no-poticy change Year output output output output output output output output output *000 tons (%) 000 tons (%) 000 tons (M) .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......................... 1900 492 344 43.0% 40 40 0.0% 19 19 -3.#X 1901 430 296 45.1% 44 43 4.0% 19 20 -3.7% 1962 645 490 31.6% 50 48 5.3% 19 20 *2.6% 19b3 592 465 27.2% 47 44 6.0% 19 19 -1.4% 1964 472 349 35.2% 43 44 -2.4% 23 23 -1.7% 1965 612 376 62.7% 58 66 -12.3% 26 27 -3.4% 1966 312 218 43.4% 61 63 -3.2% 26 26 -1.4% 1967 637 472 34.9% 50 47 5.5% 22 22 -1.2% 1968 748 554 34.8% 58 54 7.2% 18 18 -0.4% 1969 454 332 36.4% 79 79 0.5% 18 18 1.6% 1970 548 428 28.1% 87 87 -0.2% 19 19 1.2% 1971 794 529 50.0% 74 82 -9.3% 18 18 0.7% 1972 604 476 26.9% 73 75 -2.4% 18 18 2.0% 1973 517 682 -24.2% 81 67 21.3% 20 19 4.2% 1974 534 721 -26.0% 84 68 24.1% 18 18 2.4% 1975 601 794 -24.2% 98 68 43.6% 18 18 0.6% 1976 686 848 -19.2% 79 52 52.1% 19 19 -0.3% 19/7 224 266 -15.6% 77 53 45.1% 20 20 0.2% 19/8 250 286 -12.7% 88 65 35.1% 19 18 0.9% 1979 248 222 11.5% 89 69 28.9% 19 19 -1.1% 1980 430 436 -1.5% 97 80 21.8% 20 20 -0.1% 1981 315 320 -1.6% 114 95 19.5% 20 20 -1.4% 1982 425 376 12.8% 117 109 7.2% 22 22 -1.0% 1983 327 321 1.8% 102 88 15.7% 23 23 0.1% 1984 466 406 14.8% 93 91 2.3% 22 22 -0.9% ... . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .............................. Supplemsent Table 27 Cuulative effect on output of direct and indirect price interventions, Portugal, 1960-1984 ........POTATO............ ..........MILK........... ..........UlE........... actual no-policy change actual no-policy change actual no-policy change Year output output output output output output output output output *000 tons (%) '000 tons (%) '000 tons (%) 1960 1,041 1,207 -13.8% 329 319 3.2% 11,091 9,344 18.7% 1961 1,056 1,149 -8.1X 356 345 3.1% 7,069 6,453 9.5% 1962 894 877 1.92 345 347 -0.7% 14,819 15.170 -2.3% 1963 1,145 1,156 -0.9% 351 339 3.5% 12,495 12.877 -3.0% 1964 1,143 1,275 -10.3% 320 310 3.2% 13,044 11,549 12.91 1965 888 867 2.4% 366 372 -1.7% 14,197 14,460 -1.8% 1966 923 914 1.0% 357 359 -0.5% 8,307 8,395 -1.0% 1967 1,296 1,582 -18.1% 348 304 14.4% 9,273 8,324 11.4% 1968 1,083 1,127 -3.9% 404 357 13.2% 10,911 12,207 -10.6% 1969 1,126 1,178 -4.4% 444 389 14.1% 7,581 8,497 -10.8% 1970 1,220 1,269 -3.9% 458 408 12.3% 10,629 11,728 -9.4% 1971 1,124 1,141 -1.5% 433 412 5.1% 8,321 8,675 -4.1% 1972 1,139 1,159 -1.7% 447 423 5.5% 7,550 7,882 -4.2% 1973 1,086 1,115 -2.6% 462 427 8.2% 10,063 10,727 -6.2% 1974 1,115 1,152 -3.3% 484 435 11.1% 12,913 14,159 -8.8% 1975 1,012 1,027 -1.5% 515 493 4.3% 8,137 8,399 .-3.1% 1976 918 932 -1.5% 528 500 5.6% 8,446 8,864 -4.7% 1977 1,201 1,224 -1.9% 560 521 7.4% 5,895 6,293 -6.3% 1978 1,128 1,129 -0.1% 569 540 5.3% 5,678 6,088 -6.7% 1979 1,021 1,014 0.7% 656 652 0.7% 13,199 13,461 -1.9% 1980 1,118 1,148 -2.6% 735 656 11.9% 9,200 10,332 -11.0% 1981 829 867 -4.41 799 684 16.8% 8,819 10,287 -14.3% 1982 983 1,007 -2.4% 793 724 9.5% 10,031 10,922 -8.2% 1983 905 1,036 -12.7% 794 563 40.9% 8,249 12,068 -31.6% 1984 1,038 1,062 -2.3% 780 723 7.91 8,393 8,964 -6.4% Supplement Table 27 Ctuaiulativu effect on output of direct and indirect price interventions, Portugal, 1960-1984(cont) . .. . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................................. ........RICE............ ...........TOMAIO......... .........CORN........... actual no-policy change actual no-policy change actual no-policy change Year output output output output output output output output output *000 tons (%) *000 tons (%) *000 tons (%) . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................................. 1960 151 155 -2.1% 55 65 -15.8% 466 402 15.9% 1961 177 171 3.9% 76 75 0.3% 632 623 1.4% 1962 174 195 -11.0% 148 138 7.1% 599 561 6.7% 1963 166 174 -4.3% 188 198 -5.2% 523 495 5.8% 1964 181 175 3.7% 263 270 -2.5% 597 573 4.0% 1965 139 83 67.6% 413 880 -53.1% 459 526 -12.7% 1966 154 149 3.4% 515 563. -8.4% 565 534 5.7% 1967 146 147 -1.0% 799 823 -2.9% 577 537 7.5% 1968 149 150 -0.5% 867 960 -9.8% 548 .517 6.0% 1969 176 157 11.8% 827 1,024 -19.3% 553 549 0.7% 1970 195 174 12.2% 734 786 -6.7% 581 603 -3.6% C.N 1971 162 182 -11.4% 625 610 2.4% 526 482 9.2% 1972 164 147 11.5% 814 991 -17.9% 519 495 4.8% 1973 168 174 -3.8% 849 865 -1.8% 509 501 1.6% 1974 130 156 -17.2% 714 393 82.0% 486 534 -9.1% 1975 133 157 -15.6% 826 597 38.3% 451 435 3.7% 1976 97 106 -8.7% 493 482 2.4% 379 348 8.7% 1971 102 112 -9.2% 666 797 -16.4% 442 397 11.3% 197t 135 -151 -10.5% 632 693 -8.9% 440 405 10.9% 1979 145 160 -9.3% 553 433 27.7% 461 437 5.5% 1980 155 165 -6.0% 457 360 26.8% 489 482 1.6% 1981 112 130 -14.2% 395 319 23.6% 377 358 5.2% 1982 143 160 -10.1% 523 595 -12.2% 421 374 12.7% 198S 109 111 -1.6% 558 692 -19.4% 424 390 8.7% 1984 134 136 -1.4% 729 785 -7.1% 481 460 4.52 --------------------------------r Supplement Table 27 Cmunlative effect on output of direct and indirect price interventions, Portugal, 1960-1984(cont) ........HEAT......................BEEf.... ....... ...........SHEEP.......... actual no-policy change actual no-policy change actual no-policy change Year output output output output output output output output output *000 tons (%) *000 tons (%) *000 tons (%) 1960 492 345 42.7% 40 33 21.6% 19 20 -5.3% 1961 430 304 41.4% 44 33 33.8% 19 20 -5.3% 1962 645 508 26.9% 50 38 30.5% 19 20 -3.6% 1963 592 488 21.4% 47 36 30.5% 19 19 -0.9% 1964 472 347 36.0% 43 39 11.3% 23 23 -1.4% 1965 612 358 71.2% 58 59 -2.3% 26 27 -3.9% 1966 312 217 44.0% 61 53 13.4% 26 26 -0.0% 1967 637 495 28.7% 50 37 33.1% 22 22 0.2Z 1968 748 590 26.6% 58 42 38.1% 18 17 2.3% 1969 454 344 32.0% 79 65 21.0% 18 17 7.4% 01 1970 548 438 25.2% 87 76 14.5% 19 18 5.6% 1971 794 517 53.5% 74 74 0.7% 18 17 5.8% 1972 604 482 25.4% 73 68 7.91 18 17 7.2% 1973 517 918 -43.7% 81 55 47.6% 20 18 9.6% 1974 534 991 -46.2% 84 55 54.1% 18 17 5.0% 1975 601 1.482 -59.4% 98 47 108.5% 18 18 1.5% 1976 686 1,766 -61.2% 79 34 134.8% 19 19 0.1% 1977 224- 470 -52.3% 77 36 117.1% 20 20 1.2% 1978 250 430 -41.8% 88 46 91.2% 19 18 2.7% 1979 248 283 -12.6% 89 48 86.0% 19 19 -0.6% 1980 430 534 -19.6% 97 61 S9.7% 20 20 0.7% 1981 315 378 -16.7% 114 74 53.0% 20 20 -2.91 1982 425 398 6.6% 117 92 - 26.6% 22 22 -1.0% 1983 327 369 -11.6% 102 70 44.7% 23 23 1.1% 1984 466 414 12.5% 93 81 13.8% 22 22 -0.9% . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . ............................ Supplement Table 28 Direct and Indirect Short-run Effects on Foreign Exchange Earnings of Price Policies, Portugal, 1960-1984 Effect on Foreign Exchange earnings Total Savings as a proportion of from change in output and use of Exports Total Exports Year Potato Milk Wine Total Potato Milk Wine Total .------ million ....................mill esc S mill.. ---------*--- 1960 -4.44 0.67 158.95 155.17 12046 417 -1.1% 0.2% 38.1% 37.21 1961 -8.59 0.66 98.21 90.27 12747 443 -1.9t 0.1% 22.2% 20.41 1962 -9.47 -0.20 -25.22 -34.89 13133 455 -2.1% -0.0% -5.5% -7.7% 1963 -9.69 0.37 -52.14 -61.46 14314 498 -1.9% 0.1% -10.5% -12.3% 1964 -10.78 0.60 59.97 49.80 15614 542 -2.0% 0.1% 11.1% 9.2% 1965 1.57 -0.45 -60.49 *59.36 17436 593 0.3% -0.1% -10.2% -10.0% 1966 1.60 -0.25 -13.39 -12.03 18013 593 0.3% -0.0% *2.3% -2.0% 1967 -14.26 1.89 110.41 98.05 20577 676 -2.1% 0.3% 16.3% 14.5% 1968 -13.93 1.45 -129.43 -141.91 22572 724 -1.9% 0.2% -17.9% -19.6% 1969 -11.13 1.51 -85.06 -94.69 24710 763 -1.5% 0.2% -11.2% -12.4% 1970 -15.50 1.33 -168.88 -183.04 26596 792 -2.0% 0.2% -21.3% -23.1% 1971 -15.87 -0.19 -111.01 -127.07 28255 828 -1.9% -0.0% -13.4% -15.3% 1972 1.20 -0.47 -130.43 -129.71 37071 1,089 0.1% -0.0% -12.0% -11.9% 1973 -7.46 0.01 -171.66 -179.11 45472 1,293 -0.6% 0.0% -13.3% -13.8% 1974 0.13 0.15 -182.95 -182.67 51772 1,203 0.0% 0.0% -15.2% -15.2X 1975 -9.96 -2.86 -36.52 -49.34 45338 959 -1.0% -0.3% -3.8% -5.1% 1976 -2.25 -5.30 -30.72 -38.27 55124 941 *0.2% -0.6% -3.3% -4.1% 1977 -5.73 -3.64 -33.35 -42.72 77749 988 -0.6% -0.4% -3.4% -4.3% 1978 -13.45 -6.27 -2.07 -21.78 104823 1,077 -1.2% -0.6% -0.2% -2.0% 1979 -6.47 -5.39 -83.56 -95.43 173930 1,426 -0.5% -0.4% -5.9% -6.7% 1980 -1.12 -3.35 -88.41 -92.87 228969 1,608 -0.1% -0.2% -5.5% -5.8%, 1981 -4.78 -0.61 -18.16 -23.55 251246 1,315 -0.4% -0.0% -1.4% -1.4 1982 0.57 -1.33 -22.85 -23.61 327106 1,300 0.0% -0.1% -1.8% -1.8% 1983 -2.74 0.37 -34.09 -36.45 504981 1,421 -0.2% 0.0% -2.4% -2.6% 1984 -1.95 -0.33 -10.87 -13.15 757062 1,562 -0.1% -0.0% -0.7% -0.8% SOURCE: Annex D Supplement Table 28 Direct and Indirect Short-run Effects on foreign Exchange Earnings of Price Policies, Portugal, 1960-1984 (cont) Effect on Foreign Exchange earnings Total Savings as a proportion of from change in output and use of Exports Total Exports Year Rice Tomato Corn Total Rice Tomato Corn Total ............. $ million .......------.----.-. mitt esc $ mitt ------------------- %-----*------------------- .. ...... million........................................Et SC$il .................................... 1960 0.39 -0.12 6.01 6.28 12046 417 0.1% -0.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1961 2.55 0.02 3.10 5.68 12747 443 0.6% 0.0% 0.7% 1.3% 1962 -6.51 0.13 4.01 -2.38 13133 455 -1.4% 0.0% 0.9% -0.5% 1963 -0.73 -0.16 3.16 2.27 14314 498 -0.1% -0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 1964 1.52 -0.02 4.45 5.95 15614 542 0.3% -0.0% 0.8% 1.1% 1965 5.07 -3.53 1.89 3.42 17436 593 0.9% -0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 1966 1.48 -0.47 5.85 6.86 18013 593 0.2% -0.1% 1.0% 1.2% 1967 0.32 -0.13 6.14 6.32 20577 676 0.0% -0.0% 0.9% 0.9% 1968 0.30 -1.06 4.84 4.08 22572 724 0.0% -0.1% 0.7% 0.6% 1969 1.89 -1.93 2.46 2.42 24710 763 0.2% -0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 1970 2.27 -0.38 0.06 1.95 26596 792 0.3% -0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1971 -3.80 0.12 5.16 1.48 28255 828 -0.5% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 1972 1.48 -1.33 6.08 6.24 37071 1,089 0.1% -0.1% 0.6% 0.6% L 1973 -3.13 -0.26 -1.05 -4.44 45472 1,293 -0.2% -0.0% -0.1% -0.3% 1974 -5.93 3.42 -13.24 -15.75 51772 1,203 -0.5z 0.3% -1.1% -1.3% 1975 -1.28 2.19 -2.36 -1.45 45338 959 -0.1% 0.2% -0.2% -0.21 1976 0.47 0.10 -1.28 -0.71 55124 941 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% 1977 -0.94 -0.97 -2.37- -4.28 77749 988 -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.4% 1978 -1.39 -0.39 -0.29 -2.08 104823 1,077 -0.1% -0.0% -0.0% -0.2% 1979 0.19 0.61 1.32 2.12 173930 1,426 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.11 1980 -0.02 0.4? -5.00 -4.60 228969 1,608 -0.0% 0.0% -0.3% -0.3 1981 -1.43 0.21 -3.96 -5.12 251246 1,315 -0.1% 0.0% -0.3% -0.6% 1982 -0.11 -0.30 -0.35 -0.75 327106 1,300 -0.0% -0.0% -0.0% -0.1% 1983 0.18 -0.45 -2.31 -2.58 504981 1,421 0.0% -0.0% -0.2% -0.2% 1984 0.18 -0.15 0.33 0.36 757062 1,562 0.0% -0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------........................... Supplement Table 28 Direct and Indirect Short-run Effects on Foreign Exchange Earnings of Price Policies, Portugal, 1960-1984(cont) Effect on Foreign Exchange earnings Total Savings as a proportion of from change in output and use of Exports Total Exports Year Wheat Beef Sheep Total Wheat Beef Sheep Total .--- *-S million .....................mill esc S mill. ...........................%.....------------------.. 1960 14.59 1.69 -0.38 15.89 12046 417 3.5% 0.4% -0.1% 3.8% 1961 12.90 2.71 1.08 16.70 12747 443 2.9% 0.6% 0.2% 3.8% 1962 16.97 1.79 0.59 19.34 13133 455 3.7% 0.4% 0.1%. 4.2% 1963 13.33 1.87 1.97 17.16 14314 498 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 3.4% 1964 14.63 1.98 1.20 17.82 15614 542 2.7% 0.4% 0.2% 3.3% 1965 22.29 1.09 -0.07 23.30 17436 593 3.8% 0.2% -0.0% 3.9% 1966 11.37 4.18 1.81 17.36 18013 593 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 2.9% 1967 19.23 2.42 1.95 23.60 20577 676 2.8% 0.4% 0.3% 3.5% 1968 17.68 2.33 4.26 24.26 22572 724 2.4% 0.3% 0.6% 3.4% 1969 10.70 3.79 6.24 20.72 24710 763 1.4% 0.5% 0.8% 2.7% 1970 11.32 3.35 5.13 19.80 26596 792 1.4% 0.4% 0.6% 2.5% 1971 18.94 1.37 5.65 25.96 28255 828 2.3% 0.2% 0.7% 3.1% 1972 12.10 2.19 6.27 20.56 37071 1,089 1.1% 0.2% 0.6% 1.9% 1973 -14.26 8.13 9.70 3.57 45472 1,293 -1.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 1974 -26.75 9.66 7.76 -9.33 51772 1,203 -2.2% 0.8% 0.6% -0.8% 1975 -17.77 10.38 5.65 -1.74 45338 959 -1.9% 1.1% 0.6% -0.2% 1976 -10.71 6.98 6.40 2.67 55124 941 -1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 1977 -3.76 19.04 5.65 20.93 77749 988 -0.4% 1.9% 0.6% 2.1% 1978 -2.88 17.57 7.29 21.98 104823 1,077 -0.3% 1.6% 0.7% 2.0% 1979 0.19 22.28 5.85 28.33 173930 1,426 0.0% 1.6% 0.4% 2.0% 1980 -4.83 12.26 4.90 12.33 228969 1,608 -0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.8% 1981 -3.15 15.84 1.99 14.68 251246 1,315 -0.2% 1.2% 0.2% . 1.1% 1982 0.62 8.25 2.53 11.40 327106 1,300 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.9% 1983 0.52 10.47 2.77 13.76 504981 1,421 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 1984 1.09 3.52 0.96 5.56 757062 1,562 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% ...................................................................................................................... Supplement Table 29 Direct and Indirect Cumulative Effects on Foreign Exchange Earnings of Price Policies, Portugal, 1960-1984 ........................................................ ................................... Effect on Foreign Exchange earnings Total Savings as a proportion of from change in output and use of Exports Total Exports Year Potato Milk Wine Total Potato Milk Wine Total .-- ...-...S million ...................- - mil esc S mit -----------------%.------------------------ ........................................................................................... 1960 0.00 0.91 201.43 202.34 12046 417 0.0% 0.2% 48.3% 48.5% 1961 -6.32 1.04 115.79 110.51 12747 443 -1.4% 0.2% 26.1% 24.9% 1962 -10.51 -0.01 -26.65 -37.18 13133 455 -2.3% -0.0% -5.9% -8.2% 1963 -9.55 0.88 -68.95 -77.62 14314 498 -1.9% 0.2% -13.8% -15.6% 1964 -7.53 1.00 88.70 82.18 15614 542 -1.4% 0.2% 16.4% 15.2% 1965 0.05 -0.28 *55.85 -56.08 17436 593 0.0% -0.0% -9.4% -9.5% 1966 0.61 -0.04 -11.63 -11.06 18013 593 0.1% -0.0% -2.0% -1.9% 1967 -8.07 3.62 114.72 110.27 20577 676 -1.2% 0.5% 17.0% 16.3% 1968 -13.42 3.56 -215.92 -225.78 22572 724 *1.9% 0.5% -29.8% -31.2% 1969 -9.84 3.54 -165.02 -171.32 24710 763 -1.3% 0.5% -21.6% -22.5% 1970 -14.84 3.19 -245.08 -256.73 26596 792 -1.9% 0.4% -30.9% -32.4% 1971 -15.50 0.68 -138.76 -153.58 28255 828 -1.9% 0.1% -16.8% -18.5% 0 1972 1.81 0.42 -161.10 -158.87 37071 1,089 0.2%. 0.0% -14.8% -14.6% 1973 -6.60 1.15 -233.67 -239.12 45472 1.293 -0.5% 0.1% -18.1% -18.5% 1974 0.62 1.85 -239.03 -236.56 51772 1,203 .0.1% 0.2% -19.9% -19.7% 1975 -9.60 -1.98 -48.50 -60.08 45338 959 -1.0% -0.2% -5.1% -6.3% 1976 -1.96 -4.23 -48.62 -54.80 55124 941 -0.2% -0.4% -5.2% -5.8% 1977 -4.85 -2.76 -57.92 -65.53 77749 988 -0.5% -0.3% -5.9% -6.6% 1978 -13.30 -5.61 -35.33 -54.24 104823 1,077 -1.2% -0.5% -3.3% -5.0% 1979 -6.92 -5.00 -86.12 -98.04 173930 1,426 -0.5% -0.4% -6.0% -6.9% 1980 -0.79 -2.00 -119.19 -121.98 228969 1,608 -0.0% -0.1% -7.4% . 7.6%, 1981 -4.48 0.98 -63.75 -67.26 251246 1,315 -0.3% 0.1% -4.8% -5.1% 1982 0.89 -0.54 -41.74 -41.39 327106 1,300 0.1% -0.0% -3.2% -3.2% 1983 -1.87 2.39 -104.51 -104.00 504981 1,421 -0.1% 0.2% -7.4% -7.3% 1984 -1.59 0.12 -18.99 -20.47 757062 1,562 -0.1% 0.0% -1.2% -1.3% SOURCE: Annex 0 Supplement Table 29 Direct and Indirect Cumiative Effects on foreign Exchange Earnings of Price Policies, Portugal, 1960-1984(cont) ........................................................................................... Effect on Foreign Exchange earnings Total Savings as a proportion of from change in output and use of Exports Total Exports Year Rice Tomato Corn Total Rice Tomato Corn Total ....... S miltion ....................mill esc S mitt ---................%.--............ ................................................................. 1960 1.15 -0.19 6.39 7.34 12046 417 0.3% -0.0% 1.5% 1.8% 1961 2.40 0.00 2.92 5.32 12747 443 0.5% 0.0% 0.7% 1.2% 1962 -4.44 0.18 4.60 0.34 13133 455 -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 1963 -0.14 -0.19 3.50 3.17 14314 498 -0.0% -0.0% 0.7% 0.6% 1964 1.49 -0.13 4.40 5.76 15614 542 0.3% -0.0% 0.8% 1.1% 1965 1.93 -8.40 -1.04 -7.51 174i6 593 0.3% -1.4% -0.2% -1.3% 1966 1.47 -0.80 5.91 6.59 18013 593 0.2% -0.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1967 0.76 -0.41 6.36 6.72 20577 676 0.1% -0.1% 0.9% 1.0% 1968 0.52 -1.49 5.08 4.10 22572 724 0.1% -0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 1969 1.08 -2.93 2.21 0.37 24710 763 0.1% -0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 1970 1.33 -0.73 -0.51 0.10 26596 792 0.2% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% H 1971 -2.24 0.19 5.64 3.59 28255 828 -0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 1972 1.04 -2.24 5.96 4.77 37071 1,089 0.1% -0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 1973 -2.84 -0.22 -0.87 -3.93 45472 1,293 -0.2% -0.0% -0.1% -0.3% 1974 -3.93 3.93 -13.74 -13.74 51772 1,203 -0.3% 0.3% -1.1% -1.1% 1975 %.13 2.61 -2.16 0.59 45338 959 0.0% 0.3% -0.2% 0.1% 1976 0.91 0.12 -1.09 -0.05 55124 941 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.0% 1977 -0.59 -1.19 -2.10 -3.88 77749 988 -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.4% 1978 -0.85 -0.46 -0.07 -1.37 104823 1,077 -0.1% -0.0% -0.0% -0.1% 1979 0.74 0.71 1.38 2.83 173930 1,426 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1980 0.09 0.50 -5.00 -4.21 228969 1,608 0.0% 0.0% -0.3% -0.3X 1981 -0.93 0.34 -3.87 -4.46 251246 1,315 -0.1% 0.0% -0.3% -0.3% 1982 0.22 -0.37 -0.22 -0.38 327106 1,300 0.0% -0.0% -0.0% -0.0% 1983 0.23 -0.61 -2.23 -2.61 504981 1,421 0.0% -0.0% -0.2% -0.2% 1984 0.23 -0.21 0.38 0.40 757062 1,562 0.0% -0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------............................ Supplement Table 29 lirect and Indirect Cumulative Effects on Foreign Exchange Earnings of Price Policies, Portugal, 1960-1984(cont) Effect on Foreign Exchange earnings Total Savings as a proportion of from change in output and use of Exports Total Exports Year Wheat Beef Sheep Total Wheat Beef Sheep Total .. .S million ..................... mill esc S milt .*******.. ---..--- ------- 1960 4.48 2.42 -0.83 6.08 12046 417 1.1% 0.6% -0.2X 1.5% 1961 4.96 3.62 0.93 9.52 12747 443 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 2.1% 1962 6.19 2.44 0.38 9.01 13133 455 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 2.0% 1963 4.76 2.52 2.15 9.43 14314 498 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 1.9% 1964 5.37 2.75 1.34 9.46 15614 542 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.7% 1965 7.75 1.80 -0.24 9.31 17436 593 1.3% 0.3% -0.0% 1.6% 1966 5.26 6.08 2.37 13.71 18013 593 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 2.3% 1967 7.27 3.41 2.19 12.87 20577 676 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 1.9% 1968 6.37 3.17 4.85 14.39 22572 724 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 2.0% 1969 4.44 5.35 7.60 17.38 24710 763 0.6% 0.7% 1.0% 2.3% 1970 4.61 4.62 6.23 15.46 26596 792 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 2.0% 1971 6.51 2.11 7.11 15.73 28255 828 0.8% 0.3% 0.9% 1.9% 1972 4.64 3.24 7.80 15.68 37071 .1,089 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 1.4% 1973 -1.93 10.15 11.58 19.80 45472 1,293 -0.1% 0.8% 0.9% 1.5% 1974 -10.48 11.67 8.84 10.04 51772 1,203 -0.9% 1.0% 0.7% 0.8% 1975 -3.62 12.55 6.39 15.31 45338 959 -0.4% 1.3% 0.7% 1.6% 1976 -1.34 8.39 6.98 14.03 55124 941 -0.1% 0.9% 0.7% 1.5% 1977 -1.94 22.97 6.31 27.34 77749 988 -0.2% 2.3% 0.6% 2.8% 1978 -1.61 21.51 7.78 27.68 104823 1,077 -0.1% 2.0% 0.7% 2.6% 1979 -0.49 28.07 5.98 33.56 173930 1,426 -0.0% 2.0% 0.4% 2.4% 1980 -4.38 15.40 5.12 16.14 228969 1,608 -0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 1.0% 1981 -2.60 19.64 1.87 18.91 251246 1,315 -0.2% 1.5% 0.1% . 1.4% 1982 0.26 10.05 2.60 12.91 327106 1,300 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 1.0% 1983 0.60 13.11 2.92 16.63 504981 1,421 0.01 0.9% 0.2% 1.2% 1984 0.26 4.62 0.97 5.86 757062 1,562 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.z ...................................................................................................................... Supplement Table 30 Per Unit and Total Costs of Selected Subsidy Policies, Portugal, 1960-1984 ............................................................................................. Per unit subsidy (escudos per kilogram) Total subsidy (million escudos) <.....POTATO .....> .....MILK ....> <......WINE ......><.....POTATO.....><....MILK.....> <....WINE......> Year Producer Consuner Producer Consumer Producer Consumer Nominal Real Nominal Real Nominal Reat 1960 -0.00 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -1.7 -1.8 -12.3 -13.0 -20.8 -22.0 1961 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.2 0.2 -2.1 -2.1 -6.9 -7.1 1962 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 1.4 1.4 -1.1 -1.1 -4.6 -4.7 1963 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.3 13.3 12.4 12.4 56.7 56.7 1964 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.3 13.2 11.9 11.7 59.2 58.6 1965 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.3 9.9 5.1 4.9 64.0 61.5 1966 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.7 9.9 8.5 7.9 37.2 34.5 1967 0.01 0.00 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.1 13.5 182.9 163.2 42.5 38.0 1968 0.02 0.00 0.57 0.00 0.01 0.00 23.5 20.6 231.1 202.7 102.3 89.7 1969 0.02 0.00 0.57 0.00 0.01 0.00 24.4 20.2 253.8 209.8 71.2 58.9 1970 0.01 0.00 0.54 0.00 0.01 0.00 17.0 13.7 248.0 199.9 64.2 51.8 1971 0.02 0.00 0.30 0.40 0.01 0.00 21.7 16.9 301.3 233.5 75.4 58.5 1972 0.02 0.00 0.35 0.50 0.01 0.00 18.5 13.1 381.6 270.4 56.9 40.3 1973 0.02 0.00 0.47 0.50 0.01 0.00 20.0 13.4 448.7 301.1 90.5 60.7 1974 0.05 0.00 0.88 1.20 0.02 0.00 55.0 29.9 1006.7 547.0 301.8 164.0 1975 -0.00 0.00 0.36 2.90 -0.00 0.00 -2.8 -1.3 1678.6 791.8 -27.3 -12.9 1976 0.14 0.00 0.67 5.20 0.09 0.00 129.6 52.4 3102.9 1253.7 718.6 290.3 1977 0.12 0.00 0.58 5.05 0.07 0.00 143.8 45.6 3154.4 1001.0 432.6 137.3 1978 0.26 0.00 0.61 8.01 0.17 0.00 297.0 77.2 4906.5 1274.8 961.3 249.8 1979 0.27 0.00 0.71 8.51 0.17 0.00 277.1 61.2 6051.8 1336.4 2295.4 506.9 1980 0.52 0.00 2.25 8.71 0.31 0.00 581.3 103.5 8051.3 1433.0 2852.0 507.6 1981 0.60 0.00 2.89 6.87 0.36 0.00 497.2 74.6 7790.6 1168.3 3180.9 477.0 1982 0.44 0.00 1.69 9.15 0.28 0.00 430.6 52.9 8594.6 1054.9 2807.1 344.5 1983 0.42 0.00 5.23 11.56 0.21 0.00 379.1 37.8 13328.2 1327.9 1742.4 173.6 1984 -0.01 0.00 0.22 8.24 -0.02 0.00 -11.7 -0.9 6595.6 520.9 -167.5 -13.2 SOURCE: Asutex E Supplement Table 30 Per Unit and Total Costs of Selected Subsidy Policies, Portugal, 1960-1984 (cont) .............................................................................................. Per unit subsuidy (escudos per kilogram) Total subsidy (million escudos) ....RICE .... ...TOMTO....).......CORN ...><...RICE...) ><.... TOKATO ... ...CORN .. Year Producer Consumer Producer Consumer Producer Consumer Nominal Real Nominal Real Nominal Rest~ .............................................................................................. 1960 0.05 -0.05 -0.00 0.00 0.63 -0.63 .1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 9.4 10.0 1961 0.10 *0.09 -0.00 0.00 0.20 -0.20 0.5 0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 1962 -1.35 1.37 -000 0.00 0.25 -0.24 -6.4 -6.6 -0.2 -0.2 4.8 4.9 1963 -0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.39 -0.35 14.7 14.7 0.3 0.3 2.0 2.0 1964. 0.21 -0.13 0.00 0.00 0.34 -0.30 14.2 14.1 0.5 0.5 6.1 6.0 1965 0.61 -0.53 0.00 0.00 0.72 -0.68 -1.9 -1.9 0.7 0.7 -17.3 -16.6 1966 0.38 -0.30 0.00 0.00 0.54 -0.50 -1.0 -1.0 0.8 0.8 -109.5 -101.3 1967 0.24 -0.16 0.00 0.00 0.51 -0.47 7.8 6.9 1.4 1.3 -61.9 -55.2 1968 0.44 -0.30 0.01 0.00 0.56 -0.49 7.5 6.6 4.5 3.9 --152.9 -134.1 1969 1.05 -0.91 0.02 -0.01 0.56 -0.49 -13.5 -11.2 12.6 10.4 -142.4 -117.7 1970 0.89 -0.81 0.03 -0.03 0.20 -0.16 11.4 9.2 23.7 19.1 -22.7 -18.3 1971 -0.44 0.54 0.06 -0.06 0.76 -0.70 15.1 11.7 40.1 31.1 -302.6 -234.5 1972 1.10 -1.02 0.07 -0.07 0.96 -0.91 -13.7 -9.7 59.4 42.1 -656.6 -465.3 1973 -0.67 0.76 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 12.6 8.4 3.1 2.1 26.5 17.8 1974 -2.89 3.17 0.56 -0.55 -0.96 1.29 63.4 34.5 403.0 218.9 1412.4 767.4 1975 -0.81 0.81 0.41 -0.41 1.23 0.42 38.5 18.3 334.6 157.8 1246.6 588.0 1976 0.32 0.02 0.18 -0.14 1.62 0.38 35.3 14.3 86.7 35.0 1205.0 486.9 1977 -0.75 0.99 0.03 0.00 2.16 0.31 125.9 40.0 18.6 5.9 1457.4 462.5 1978 -0.45 0.82 0.20 -0.14 2.57 -0.44 91.5 23.8 128.2 33.3 227.8 59.2 1979 1.18 -0.80 0.50 -0.44 2.16 0.08 -46.5 -10.3 278.6 61.5 1191.4 263.1 1980 3.35 -1.95 1.02 -0.88 2.98 0.97 97.1 17.3 465.7 82.9 4376'8 719.0 1981 -3.78 5.29 0.86 -0.70 3.22 1.55 774.8 116.2 338.7 50.8 5717.0 857.4 1982 0.72 -0.15 0.45 -0.35 5.21 -0.63 59.3 7.3 234.5 28.8 466.9 57.3 1983 5.92 -3.93 0.35 -0.24 8.12 0.75 -83.7 -8.3 198.0 19.7 5417.5 539.8 1984 7.23 -7.23 0.86 -0.89 8.66 -3.93 -958.6 -75-7 627.2 49.5 -5243.9 -414.1 .............................................................................................. Supplement Table 30 Per Unit and Total Costs of Selected Subsidy Policies, Portugal, 1960-1984 (cant) Per unit subsidy (escudos per kilogram) Total subsidy (million escudos) <.....WHEAT ......> .....BEEF....> <......SHEEP .....>.....UHEAT......><....BEEF ..... <.....SHEEP.....> Year Producer Consumer Producer Consumer Producer Consumer Nominal Real Nominal Real Nominal Reai 1960 0.96 -0.81 4.7 *5.4 2.1 0.2 65.3 69.1 -27.0 -28.6 41.2 43.6 1961 0.95 -0.79 6.4 -6.5 5.2 -2.6 -54.6 -55.7 -5.0 -5.1 56.9 58.0 1962 0.92 *0.75 6.6 -6.7 4.1 -2.2 -0.4 -0.4 -9.4 -9.6 43.4 44.3 1963 1.10 -0.87 8.6 *8.2 8.5 -6.8 66.3 66.3 10.9 10.9 54.7 54.7 1964 0.94 *0.71 5.0 *4.6 10.2 -4.3 -4.1 -4.1 -7.8 -7.7 164.5 162.8 1965 1.46 *1-.22 4.2 -4.2 7.6 -3.0 -89.0 -85.6 -21.3 -20.5 150.7 144.8 1966 1.30 -1.06 7.6 -7.5 13.8 *9.2 -250.6 -231.9 -1.0 -0.9 233.0 215.6 1967 1.21 -0.97 11.1 -10.9 15.7 -9.8 -29.9 -26.7 -5.7 -5.1 194.0 173.2 1968 1.49 -1.18 14.0 -13.1 18.1 -15.0 86.0 75.4 16.6 14.5 26.8 23.5 1969 1.66 -1.35 13.5 -12.7 23.9 -25.3 -195.8 -161.8 40.1 33.1 -35.5 -29.3 1 1970 1.27 -1.02 10.5 -10.0 20.3 . -19.7 *140.8 -113.6 10.7 8.6 9.5 7.7 1971 1.81 -1.94 10.6 -11.1 27.6 -28.9 -243.0 -188.4 -71.3 -55.2 24.6 19.1 Ln 1972 1.45 -1.60 11.0 -12.1 28.2 -31.8 -210.0 -148.8 -112.7 -79.9 -37.5 -26.6 1 1973 -0.33 0.18 23.3 -22.3 37.4 -41.3 -58.9 -39.6 41.1 27.6 -106.4 -71.4 1974 -1.13 1.91 27.6 -21.8 48.0 -36.3 906.5 492.6 436.0 236.9 82.1 44.6 1975 -0.46 0.89 40.2 -39.2 53.9 -51.7 458.9 216.4 110.1 52.0 219.3 103.4 1976 0.71 0.36 57.3 -51.8 75.3 -62.6 806.5 325.8 383.3 154.9 221.4 89.5 1977 1.40 0.66 74.6 -70.5 77.7 -87.2 678.2 215.2 146.4 46.5 -61.7 -19.6, 1978 2.22 0.14 81.5 -77.1 79.2 -90.1 685.1 178.0 124.9 32.5 -1594.4 -414.2 1979 3.77 1.04 103.1 -97.1 104.7 -78.7 1747.3 385.8 -60.4 -13.3 -1093,8 -241.5 1980 4.88 2.86 128.3 -107.8 116.8 -98.1 4683.7 833.6 1810.7 322.3 -1497.-4 -250.5 1981 3.83 2.17 111.6 -87.9 67.5 -33.4 3777.7 566.5 2501.4 375.1 -260.5 -39.1 1982 5.48 -2.71 84.6 -77.4 57.7 -70.6 -318.8 -39.1 455.6 55.9 -1905.5 -233.9 1983 8.14 -6.59 185.5 -162.6 142.7 -130.3 -2712.7 -270.3 1786.0 177.9 -2806.4 -279.6 1984 10.68 -5.16 123.1 -133.5 29.5 -88.5 -795.6 -62.8 -1289.2 -101.8 -3471.8 -274.2 ............................................................................................... Supplement Table 31 Transfers due to Direct and Total Effects of Price'Poticies, Portugal, 1960-1984 (million Esc 1963)) ............Transfers on Output Price Policies ...............Transfers on Inputs Sun of Transfers ....Potato ..... ......Milk ...... ......Wine ....Fertiliser and fuel Three commnodities Year Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total ............................................................................................... 1960 0 127 0 0 0 358 0 485 (17) 179 (17) 664 1961 0 58 0 0 0 239 0 297 (3) 241 (3) 539 1962 0 72 0 0 0 295 0 368 (0) 149 (0) 517 1963 0 (12) 0 0 0 (36) 0 (48) 34 86 34 38 1964 0 113 0 0 0 426 0 539 34 229 34 76 1965 0 113 0 0 0 334 0 447 23 190 23 638 1966 0 110 0 0 0 190 0 300 22 123 22 424 1967 0 144 154 154 0 415 154 713 25 137 179 850 1968 0 12 170 170 0 61 170 243 58 85 229 32 1969 0 (51) 179 179 0 (171) 179 (43) 55 (8) 234 (51) 1970 0 (6) 179 179 0 (23) 179 151 35 38 214 189 1971 0 (14) 94 94 0 (50) 94 30 23 13 117 44 1972 0 5 123 123 0 18 123 145 6 (38) 129 107 1973 0 (47) 116 116 0 (185) 116 (117) 41 10 157 (106) 1974 0 (50) 122 122 0 (172) 122 (99) 146 241 268 142 1975 0 (102) 67 67 0 (101) 67 (136) 12 99 79 (37) 1976 0 (151) 58 58 0 (243) 58 (336) 155 243 212 (93) 1977 0 (357) 48 48 0 (495) 48 (804) 101 144 149 (660) 1978 0 (154) 40 40 0 (748) 40 (8) 143 149 1 (713) 1979 0 72 37 37 0 228 37 338 166 266 203 604 1980 0 (158) 95 95 0 (493) 95 (556) 344 391 439 (165) 1981 0 (134) 130 130 0 (540) 10 (544) 312 425 44Z (119) 1982 0 (240) 106 106 0 (594) 106 (729) 133 230 239 (499) 1983 0 (197) 537 537 0 (469) 537 (129) (111) (46) 426 (175) 1984 0 (210) 54 54 0 (283) 54 (439) (44) (27) 10 (466) ............................................................................................... SOURCE: AnneE F Supplement Table 31 Transfers due to Direct and Total Effects of Price Policies, Portugal, 1960-1984 (cont) (million Esc (1963)) ................................................................................................. ...........Transfers on Output Price Policies............... Transfers on Inputs Sun of Transfers **.*.-Rice.......... Tomatoes .........Corn ......*Fertiliser and Fuel Three comiodities Year Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total ......................................................................... 1960 8 47 0 3 306 378 313 428 (3) 34 311 462 1961 17 38 0 2 131 181 147 221 2 74 149 295 1962 (245) (205) 0 5 148 208 (97) 8 6 34 (91) 42 1963 (13) (18) 0 (1) 183 175 170 157 32 36 202 192 1964 23 67 0 13 176 266 200 346 36 68 235 414 1965 70 94 0 17 296 356 366 467 26 52 392 519 1966 41 67 0 17 254 315 295 398 30 46 325 444 1967 21 65 0 42 240 343 260 450 30 39 290 489 1968 38 42 0 4 226 236 264 282 52 43 316 325 1969 129 117 7 (5) 218 195 353 307 53 11 406 318 1970 124 122 17 16 73 70 214 207 32 16 246 223 1971 (64) (68) 27 25 268 262 232 218 36 17 267 235 1972 115 116 39 40 324 328 477 484 28 (4) 505 480 1973 (80) (92) 0 (11) 0 (20) (80) (123) 28 5 (52) (118) 1974 (208) (224) 199 189 (273) (309) (282) (343) 60 78 (221) (265) 1975 (47) (68) 148 129 244 202 345 262 (4) 21 341 283 1976 (1) (18) 25 10 175 136 200 128 67 88 267 216 1977 (29) (68) 0 (46) 237 149 208 35 48 64 256 100 1978 (26) (69) 21 - (10) 208 142 203 63 84 82 287 145 1979 22 34 46 54 134 155 202 243 71 79 273 322 1980 49 15 65 48 132 70 246 134 149 155 1395 289 1981 (80) (117) 38 23 88 32 46 (62) 108 130 '153 67 1982 2 (49) 20 (16) 198 127 221 62 61 89 282 151 1983 38 5 12 (25) 261 177 311 157 71 79 382 236 1984 67 34 45 13 290 211 402 257 (3) (13) 400 243 ................................................................................................ Supplement Table 31 Transfers due to Direct and Total Effects of Price Policies, Portugal, 1960*1984 (cant) (million Esc (1963)) .................................................................................................. ............ .Transfers on Output Price Policies............... Transfers on Inputs Sum of Transfers ......heat .........Beef...... -----Sheep Fertitiser and Fuel Three commodities Year Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total .................................................................................................. 1960 491 589 225 273 51 (7) 768 855 (40) 170 728 1,026 1961 418 456 298 315 99 25 815 797 (0) 218 815 1,015 1962 598 670 345 373 77 39 1,020 1,082 11 218 1,031 1,300 1963 604 593 385 380 129 127 1,118 1,100 104 271 1,221 1,371 1964 400 486 193 255 185 96 779 838 97 306 876 1,144 1965 801 881 231 300 150 70 1,183 1,251 83 334 1,266 1,585 1966 342 377 405 464 286 221 1,034 1,062 71 298 1.105 1,359 1967 637 763 481 557 270 203 1,388 1,523 88 270 1,476 1,793 1968 844 857 640 649 218 225 1,702 1,731 185 331 1,888 2,062 1969 551 534 810 791 305 385 1,666 1,710 157 296 1,823 2,007 1970 507 504 686 685 276 303 1,468 1,492 101 266 1,569 1,758 1971 976 967 598 591 341 387 1,915 1,945 64 184 1,979 2,128 1972 560 565 607 620 341 416 1,508 1,600 (10) 87 1,498 1,687 1973 (140) (174) 1,137 1,106 437 532 1,434 1,464 116 225 1,550 1,689 1 1974 (392) (437) 930 879 345 305 883 747 432 615 1,315 1,361 1975 (118) (192) 1,668 1,600 410 366 1,960 1,774 50 273 2,011 2,047 1976 45 (38) 1,499 1,436 434 389 1,978 1,787 370 557 2,348 2,344 1977 64 13 1,562 1,437 396 451 2,022 1,901 164 316 2,185 2,217 1978 85 41 1,595 1,484 299 375 1,979 1,900 185 338 2,164 2,238 1979 140 154 1,633 1,676 322 274 2,095 2,104 181 358 2,276 2,461 1980 194 124 1,696 1,541 235 292 2,125 1,957 612 842 2,,736 2,799 1981 65 8 1,358 1,174 48 31 1,471 1,213 598 864 'O69 2,077 1982 201 107 1,006 727 97 100 1,304 935 194 485 1,497 1,420 1983 167 96 1,475 1,262 173 234 1,815 1,592 394 716 2,209 2,308 1984 346 266 858 682 59 122 1,262 1,070 (82) 166 1,180 1,236 .................................................................................................. Supplement Table 32 Transfers due to Direct and Total Effects of Price Policies (value added basis), Portugal, 1960-1984 (million Esc (1963)) ........................Transfers on Value Added..... ............................. .....Potato--- --. Milk **.*-.Wine ...........Three Products----- Year Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total 1960 (2) 216 (13) 38 (2) 410 (17) 664 1961 0 168 (2) 49 (1) 321 (3) 539 1962 1 120 (1) 47 (1) 351 (0) 517 1963 13 5 12 58 8 (24) 34 38 1964 13 200 12 58 10 509 34 768 1965 10 175 5 56 9 407 23 638 1966 10 154 8 55 4 215 22 424 1967 13 205 162 -207 4 438 179 850 1968 20 22 195 241 14 65 229 328 1969 20 (95) 204 247 10 (202) 234 (51) 1970 13 (17) 194 238 7 (32) 214 189 1971 16 (28) 93 131 8 (60) 117 44 1972 13 (28) 109 144 7 (8) 129 107 1973 13 (71) 137 169 8 (204) 157 (106) 1974 28 2 216 261 25 (121) 268 142 1975 (1) (78) 81 132 (1) (91) 79 (37) 1976 47 (79) 130 176 35 (190) 212 (93) 1977 41 (321) 94 141 15 (480) 149 (660) 1978 70 (115) 82 128 32 (726) 183 (713) 1979 52 144 88 150 63 310 203 604. 1980 94 (84) 267 348 78 (428) 439 (165) 1981 67 (56) 313 404 62 (467) 442 (119) 1982 48 (191) 150 240 41 (548) 239 (499) 1983 34 (195) 369 485 23 (464) 426 (175) 1984 (1) (264) 12 109 (2) (311) 10 (466) ............................................. SOURCE: Annex F Supplement Table 32 Transfers due to Direct and Total Effects of Price P61icies (value added basis). Portugal, 1960-1984(cont) (million Esc (1963)) ........................Transfers on Value Added...... ............................ ......Rice....... .....Tomatoes-- - **** Cor ....... ...Three Products----- Year Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total 1960 8 64 (0) 4 303 395 311 462 1961 18 68 (0) 3 131 224 149 295 1962 (242) (190) (0) 5 151 227 (91) 42 1963 (1) (4) 0 (0) 202 196 202 192 1964 37 95 0 15 198 304 235 414 1965 80 114 1 20 312 384 392 519 1966 52 84 1 19 272 341 325 444 1967 30 79 1 46 258 364 290 489 1968 55 56 4 7 258 262 316 325 1 1969 148 121 10 (8) 248 205 406 318 1970 136 127 19 15 92 81 246 223 c 1971 (52) (63) 29 24 290 274 267 235 1 1972 124 114 41 37 340 329 505 480 1973 (71) (92) 2 (12) 17 (14) (52) (118) 1974 (189) (200) 204 197 (236) (262) (221) (265) 1975 (47) (61) 146 131 242 213 341 283 1976 12 0 32 19 224 197 267 216 1977 (22) (57) 5 (40) 273 197 256 100 1978 (14) (59) 30 (2) 271 206 287 145 1979 32 48 53 61 188 212 273 322 1980 84 51 75 59 236 179 395 289 . 1981 (57) (87) 46 33 165 122 153 67 1982 11 (31) 26 (8) 244 190 282 151 1983 58 25 18 (20) 307 230 382 236 1984 67 28 44 8 289 207 400 243 ............................................................................ Supplement Table 32 Transfers due to Direct and Total Effects of Price Policies (value added basis), Portugal, 1960-1984(cont) (million Esc (1963)) ........................Transfers on Value Added...... .............................. .....Wheat ---.Beef ..---Sheep----- Three Products Year Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total 1960 489 620 198 334 40 72 728 1,026 1961 421 508 293 401 101 106 815 1,015 1962 609 708 340 467 82 125 1,031 1,300 1963 654 648 404 486 163 236 1,221 1,371 1964 440 546 211 360 225 238 876 1,144 1965 850 955 231 415 185 215 1,266 1,585 1966 366 407 415 586 324 366 1,105 1,359 1967 685 812 491 655 301 325 1,476 1,793 1968 940 941 681 785 267 337 1,888 2,062 1969 607 562 863 953 354 491 1,823 2,007 00 1970 546 530 718 837 305 391 1,569 1,758 1971 1,045 1,013 573 659 361 456 1,979 2,128 1972 600 574 549 644 348 469 1,498 1,687 1973 (106) (158) 1,188 1,239 469 607 1,550 1,689 1974 (305) (332) 1,178 1,243 442 450 1,315 1,361 1975 (120) (163) 1,712 1,788 418 422 2,011 2,047 1976 179 136 1,658 1,697 511 511 2,348 2,344 1977 90 50 1,653 1,623 443 543 2,185 2,217 1978 130 88 1,687 1,684 346 466 2,164 2,238 1979 177 193 1,734 1,896 366 372 2,276 2,461 1980 339 280 2,018 2,018 379 502 2,736 2,799 1981 164 129 1,724 1,724 180 225 2,069 2,077 1982 259 200 1.100 1,010 138 209 1,497 1,420 1983 237 180 1,683 1,683 290 444 2,209 2,308 1984 345 264 791 783 45 189 1,180 1,236 ........................................................................... - 182 - Supplement Table 33 ReaL Instantaneous Income Effect in Rural Area of Oirect Price Intervention in Agriculture Period Farm Labor Non-agricultural Labor 1960-64 -1.00 *8.50 1965-73 -1.50 -1040 1974-75 0.00 5.90 1976-84 -2.60 -6.70 1960-84 *2.20 *6.70 Supplemett Table 34 Aeal Instantaneous Income Effect in Rural Area of Total Price Intervention in Agriculture Period Farm Labor Non-agricuLtural Labor 1960-64 0.50 -8.80 1965-73 -0.60 -9.70 1974-75 *2.20 4.90 1976-84 -7.40 *8.40 1960-84 -5.70 -7.90 .Rea Supplement Table 35 .-Real Instantaneous Income Effect in Urban Area of Direct Price Intervention in Agriculture Period Low-income Medium-income High-income 1960-64 -0.80 -0.70 -0.40 1965-73 -0.70 -0.70 * -0.40 1974-75 3.30 2.10 1.20 1976-84 *1.30 -1.00 -0.50 1960-84 -1.00 -0.80 -0.40 Supplement Table 36 'Real Instantaneous income Effect in Urban Area of Total Price Intervention in Agriculture Period Low-income Medium-income High-income 1960-64 0.40 0.70 2.90 1965-73 0.30 0.20 -2.00 1974-75 -0.90 -0.20 4.80 1976-84 -5.80 -5.60 -1.80 1960-84 -4.20 -4.10 -1.20 Based on estimated changes in CPI. Positive numbers are a benefit (ie. a decrease in the CPI due to price policies) - 183 - ANNEX A I. Method of Estimation of Exchange Rate with Current Account Balance. II. Method of Estimation of Exchange Rate with Current Account Balance and No Trade Restrictions. III. Method of Estimation of Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate. - 184 - II. Estimation of the ecuilibrium exchange (E* ) that would have prevailed with a zero balance in the current account if all external trade restrictions had been removed in year t: tm - Q do + ( M 9 x Q * 1+ em D 1-t s E - e c x C+1 E() EttX tEt SQ +r Q s + D where, t = import tariff equivalent (see below) t = explicit export taxes AQot, D s , C, and E from equation (1) The estimation of t was based for each year t on equation (3) m PX C where, t 'was assued to be zero because there weren't ex?lici expor: X taxes on Portuguese economy during the 1960-83 period. PXt is the implicit price on Portuguese exportable goods and services obtained with a disaggreation of the Portuguese CPI in each year t. PMe is the implicit price on Portuguese importable goods and services obtained with a disaggregation of the .Portuguese C?I in each year t. TT is terms of trade of the Portuguese economy in each year t. - 185 - ANYEX A Estimation of Real Equilibrium Exchange Rates I. Estimation of the equilibrium exchange rate (El ) that would have t prevailed with a zero balance in the current accounc (in the presence of trade policies) in year t: AQ0 t E e + iQ +1 x.E (1 t s D t t where, S D Q the actual current balance in year t t t t D .impiort value plus services expenditures in year t t Q S export value plus services incomes and plus transfers ir t year t = 1 the supply elasticity for exportables = " 2 'the demand elasticity for importables (absolute value) E = the actual nominal exchange rate in year t - 186 - III. Estimation of the real equilibrium exchange rate (et) in year t WPI * * wPF e = E x------------------------ t* E t a --CPI + (1-a)CPI E t nt t where, WPI = the wholesale pri6e index of the U.S. CPIt = the tradable component of the Portuguese consumption price index estimated for each year t CPI = the non-tradable component of the Portuguese consumption price index estimated for each year t a = 0.7 = the average weight of the tradable component of the CPI E , Et = from equations (1), (2), and (3). Strictly speaking, this formula gives the implicit tariff relative to 1963, the base year of the price indices PXt and PMt . However, the resulting tariff rate series gave values consistent with other information on average tariff rates. For example, the range of actual tariff rates in the early 1970s was from 7 to 10 percent, and the calculated implicit tariff was from 4 to 10 percent over this period. As a consequence, the assumption was made that the base year tariff was zero, and the implicit tariff Tm was used as the actual tariff rate. This procedure resulted in negative tariff rates over much of the 1960s. This could either reflect a pro-import bias on the part of the Salazar regime, as an element of the industrialization strategy, or an underestimate of the base period protection level. As the level of tariffs in Portugal was never above 10 percent during the period under study, the bias is not thought to be a major source of error. Table A.1: Current Account Balance (million escudos) Export Import Trade Service Service Service Transf. Current Value Value Balance Income Expendit Balance Acct Bai Years 1960 12046 15082 -3036 3388 2301 1087 1570 -379 1961 12747 18024 -5277 3770 3833 -63 1186 -4154 1962 13133 17405 -4272 6189 4027 2162 1450 *660 1963 14314 18919 -4605 6617 4613 2004 1972 -629 1964 15614 20316 -4702 8101 7883 218 4499 15 1965 17436 23797 -6361 10283 9315 968 5009 -384 1966 18013 26279 -8266 12690 9526 3164 6046 944 1967 20577 27629 -7052 13916 10415 3501 8345 4794 1968 22572 30878 -8306 12534 11643 891 9645 2230 1969 24710 33477 -8767 12871 11300 1571 12912 5716 1970 26596 39568 -12972 15146 14257 889 15456 3373 1971 28255 46339 -18084 19809 16237 3572 19518 5006 1972 37071 53804 -16733 23704 18687 5017 24356 12640 1973 45472 67630 -22158 27130 25481 1649 29165 8656 1974 51772 97858 -46086 25277 22891 2386 26026 -17674 1 1975 45338 87705 -42367 19106 23449 -4343 23421 -23289 1976 55124 118888 -63764 24445 27681 -3236 29401 -37599 1977 77749 174047 -96298 34907 39606 -4699 43470 -57527 1978 104823 210279 -105456 53584 55504 -1920 72602 -34774 1979 173930 302929 -128999 87567 82621 4946 121309 -2744 1980 228969 439719 -210750 113291 115459 -2168 150113 -62805 1981 251246 568505 -317259 138836 172194 -33358 178627 -171990 1982 327106 704780 -377674 143225 229950 -86725 218175 -246224 1983 504981 833367 -328386 194627 273506 -78879 250282 -156983 1984 757062 1065136 -308074 284980 382775 -97795 332287 -73582 1985 966352 1214696 -248344 385760 448738 -62978 390858 79536 lable A.2: Catculation of Equitibrium Exchange Rates OS 00 E (E1.E)/E El tm E* E* E*/E WPI CPit CPInt e* YEAR 1960 17004 17383 28.75 0.01 28.96 -0.14 25.82 25.82 0.90 100.4 97.3 93.5 27.64 1961 17703 21857 28.75 0.07 30.69 .0.14 27.36 27.36 0.95 100.0 96.9 96.3 27.88 1962 20772 21432 28.75 0.01 29.05 -0.09 27.13 27.13 0.94 100.3 96.7 98.1 28.28 1963 22903 23532 28.75 0.01 29.01 0.00 29.01 29.01 1.01 100.0 100.0 100.0 28.83 1964 28214 28199 28.75 -0.00 28.74 -0.12 26.13 26.13 0.91 100.2 100.6 103.3 26.39 1965 32728 33112 28.75 0.00 28.86 -0.11 26.48 26.48 0.92 102.2 105.2 106.0 26.13 1966 36749 35805 28.75 -0.01 28.50 -0.08 26.85 26.85 0.93 105.6 111.9 110.0 26.01 1967 42838 38044 28.75 -0.04 27.59 .0.10 25.55 25.55 0.89 105.8 113.4 112.3 25.03 1968 44751 42521 28.75 -0.02 28.26 0.01 28.44 28.44 0.99 108.5 118.4 119.4 26.27 1969 50493 44777 28.75 -0.04 27.58 0.13 29.69 29.69 1.03 112.7 124.8 122.9 27.24 1970 57198 53825 28.75 -0.02 28.16 0.04 28.88 28.88 1.00 116.8 128.1 126.7 26.64 1971 67582 62576 28.32 -0.03 27.58 0.06 28.63 28.63 1.01 120.5 139.5 132.5 25.33 1972 85131 72491 27.01 -0.05 25.53 0.09 26.93 26.93 1.00 126.0 147.6 141.5 23.90 00 1973 101767 93111 24.67 -0.03 23.93 0.10 25.38 25.38 1.03 142.5 161.0 154.4 22.88 1974 103075 120749 25.41 0.05 26.71 -0.03 26.16 26.16 1.03 169.4 199.7 192.7 21.78 1975 87865 111154 25.55 0.08 27.47 -0.03 26.90 26.90 1.05 185.1 234.0 219.1 20.73 1976 108970 146569 30.23 0.09 33.06 -0.03 32.38 32.38 1.07 193.7 288.2 240.8 21.58 1977 156126 213653 38.28 0.10 42.05 0.10 44.60 44.60' 1.17 205.5 372.6 295.0 23.85 1978 231009 265783 43.94 0.05 45.94 0.14 49.71 49.71 1.13 221.5 453.3 361.1 24.25 1979 382806 385550 48.92 0.00 49.04 -0.06 46.95 46.95 0.96 249.3 572.2 428.9 22.45 1980 492373 555178 50.06 0.04 52.02 0.11 55.46 55.46 1.11 284.4 656.8 529.0 24.18 1981 568709 740699 61.55 0.08 66.71 0.03 68.01 68.01 1.10 310.5 -785.2 623.9 26.76 1982 685331 934730 79.47 0.10 87.23 0.08 91.54 91.54 1.15 316.7 960.9 749.4 29.49 1983 941595 1106873 110.80 0.05 116.60 0.15 126.74 126.74 1.14 320.7 1195.3 957.2 33.68 1984 1362343 1447911 146.39 0.02 149.33 0.15 162.32 162.32 1.11 331.0 1549.1 1190.9 35.51 1985 1728595 1663434 170.40 -0.01 168.20 0.11 179.38 179.38 1.05 340.9 1834.9 1415.2 35.26 Table A.3: Evolution of real and equilibriun exchange rates Degree of divergence Degree of from level in....... Diverg- E CPIt CPlnt CPI WPI e 1966 1970 1979 e* ence of e Year from e* 1960 28.75 97.3 93.5 96.2 100.4 30.02 10.1% 14.1% 30.3% 27.64 8.6% 1961 28.75 96.9 96.3 96.7 100.0 29.72 9.0% 13.0% 29.0% 27.88 6.6% 1962 28.75 96.7 98.1 97.1 100.3 29.70 8.9% 12.9% 28.9% 28.28 5.0% 1963 28.75 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 28.75 5.4% 9.3% 24.7% 28.83 -0.3% 1964 28.75 100.6 103.3 101.4 100.2 28.41 4.2% 8.0% 23.3% 26.39 7.7% 1965 28.75 105.2 106.0 105.4 102.2 27.87 2.2% 6.0% 20.9% 26.13 6.7% 1966 28.75 111.9 110.0 111.3 105.6 27.27 0.0% 3.7% 18.3% 26.01 4.9% 1967 28.75 113.4 112.3 113.1 105.8 26.91 -1.3% 2.3% 16.7% 25.03 7.5% 1968 28.75 118.4 119.4 118.7 108.5 26.27 -3.7% -0.1% 14.0% 26.27 -0.0% 1969 28.75 124.8 122.9 124.2 112.7 26.08 -4.4% -0.9% 13.2% 27.24 -4.2% 1970 28.75 128.1 126.7 127.7 116.8 26.31 -3.5% 0.0% 14.1% 26.64 -1.3% 1971 28.32 139.5 132.5 137.4 120.5 24.84 -8.9% -5.6% 7.8% 25.33 -1.9% 1972 27.01 147.6 141.5 145.8 126.0 23.35 -14.4% -11.2% 1.3% 23.90 -2.3% 1973 24.67 161.0 154.4 159.0 142.5 22.11 -18.9% -15.9% -4.0% 22.88 -3.4% 1974 25.41 199.7 192.7 197.6 169.4 21.79 -20.1% -17.2% -5.5% 21.78 0.0% 1975 25.55 234.0 219.1 229.5 185.1 20.60 -24.5% -21.7% -10.6% 20.73 -0.6% 1976 30.23 288.2 240.8 274.0 193.7 21.37 -21.7% -18.8% -7.3% 21.58 -1.0% 1977 38.28 372.6 295.0 349.3 205.5 22.52 -17.4% -14.4% -2.3% 23.85 -5.6% 1978 43.94 453.3 361.1 425.6 221.5 22.86 -16.2% -13.1% -0.8% 24.25 -5.7% 1979 48.92 572.2 428.9 529.2 249.3 23.05 -15.5% -12.4% 0.0% 22.45 2.6% 1980 50.06 656.8 529.0 618.5 284.4 23.02 -15.6% -12.5% -0.1% 24.18 -4.8% 1981 61.55 785.2 623.9 736.8 310.5 25.94 -4.9%. -1.4% '.12.5% 26.76 -3.1% 1982 79.47 960.9 749.4 897.4 316.7 28.05 2.8% 6.6% 21.7% 29.49 -4.9% 1983 110.80 1195.3 957.2 1123.9 320.7 31.62 15.9% 20.2% 37.2% 33.68 -6.1% 1984 146.39 1549.1 1190.9 1441.6 331.0 33.61 23.2% 27.8% 45.8% 35.51 -5.3% 1985 170.40 1834.9 1415.2 1709.0 340.9 33.99 0.2 29.2% 47.5% 35.26 -3.6% - 190 - ANNEX B Estimation of Producer and Consumer Prices and Producer Value Added in the Absence of Direct and Indirect Price Policies - 191 - Annex B Key to Tables Bl-B3 1. Non-agricultural variables (Table Bl) tm = implicit tariff rate, non-agricultural goods (see Annex A) PN t price index of non-agricultural traded goods (1963 = 1.00) PNat = price index of non-agricultural non-traded goos (1963 = 1.00) PN = price index for non-agricultural goods (see Annex A) * E /E - deviation of equilibrium exchange rate from actual rate (see Annex A) PN = price index for non-agricultural goods adjusted for exchange rates and tariffs VAN = value added index for non-agricultural goods (1963 - 1.00) 2. Agricultural prices (for each of nine products) (Table Bl) P = nominal price received.by producer, Esc/kg PW = nominal price in absence of direct price intervention ("world" price) * PW = nominal price in absence of direct and indirect price interventions, ("world" price adjusted for exchange rates and tariffs) IC = selected input costs (varies by commodity), Esc/kg of output IC1 = selected input costs in absence of direct price interventions (i.e. adjusted for subsidies and taxes) * IC = selected input costs in absence of direct and indirect price interventions (i.e., adjusted for exchange rates) VA = value added over selected input costs, i.e. nominal output price less input costs, Esc/kg of output VAl = value added in the absence of direct price policies VA = value added in the absence of direct and indirect price policies cont. - 192 - 3. Real agricultural prices (Table B2) RP = real commodity price (P/PN) RPW - real commodity price in absence of direct price policy (PW/PN) * RPW = real commodity price in absence of direct and indirect price policies (PW*/PN*) RVA = real value added (VA/VAN) RVAl = real value added in the absence of direct price policies (VAl/VAN) RVA - real value added in the absence of direct and indirect price policies (VA *VAN ) 4. Measures of protection (Table B2) NPR d = nominal value of protection from direct price interventions (RP-RPW)/(RPW) NPR. = nominal value of protection from indirect price interventions 1 (RPW-RPw*)/(RPW*) (common for all traded commodities NPRt = nominal rate of protection from total (direct and indirect) price interventions (RP-RPW*)/(RPW*) ERP d= effective rate of protection from direct price interventions (VA-VAl)/(VAl) ERPi = effective rate of protection from indirect price interventions (VAl-VA )/(VA') ERP t= effective rate of protection from total (direct and indirect) price interventions (VA-VA*)/(VA*) 5. Consumer prices (for those commodities with direct consumer price programs) CP = nominal consumer price, Esc/kg CPW = nominal consumer price in the absence of direct price interventions ("world" price) * CPW = nominal consumer price in the absence of direct and indirect price interventions ("adjusted world" price) RCP = consumer price relative to non-agricultural prices (CP/PN) - 193 - RCPW consumer price relative to non-agricultural prices in the absence of direct intervention (CPW/PN) RCPW consumer price relative to non-agricultural prices in the absence of direct and indirect intervention (CPW*/PN*) CNPRd - nominal rate of protection at consumer level arising from direct price intervention (RCP-RCPW)/(RCPW) CNPR. = nominal rate of protection at consumer .level arising from 1 indirect price intervention (RCPW-RCPW*)/(RCPW*) CNPR = nominal rate of protection at consumer level arising from total (di;ect and indirect) price intervention (RCP-RCPW )/(RCPW*) Table 81: Basic data for analysis of retative prices POIATOES YEAR tm Pmt PUnt Pm E*/E Pm* VAN VAN* p PV PW* IC lc1 IC* VA VAl VA* 1960 -0.14 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.90 0.99 0.78 0.81 1.15 1.15 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.12 0.11 0.11 -0.09 1961 .0.14 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.95 1.05 0.86 0.91 1.10 1.10 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.14 0.06 0.06 -0.09 1962 .0.09 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.94 1.01 0.91 0.94 1.40 1.40 1.32 1.00 1.00 1.05 0.40 0.40 0.27 1963 0.00 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.15 1.15 1.16 1.02 1.03 1.04 0.13 0.12 0.12 1964 -0.12 1.01 1.02 1.01 0.91 1.05 1.10 1.14 1.10 1.10 1.00 1.02 1.03 1.10 0.08 0.07 -0.10 1965 -0.11 1.04 1.05 1.04 0.92 1.07 1.22 1.26 1.70 1.70 1.57 1.03 1.04 1.11 0.67 0.66 0.46 1966 -0.08 1.08 1.09 1.08 0.93 1.10 1.36 1.38 2.01 2.01 1.88 1.06 1.07 1.11 0.95 0.94 0.76 1967 -0.10 1.12 1.13 1.12 0.89 1.13 1.52 1.53 1.13 1.13 1.00 1.02 1.03 1.07 0.11 0.10 -0.07 1968 0.01 1.14 1.15 1.14 0.99 1.13 1.67 1.65 1.24 1.24 1.23 1.03 1.05 1.04 0.21 0.19 0.18 1969 0.13 1.18 1.23 1.21 1.03 1.15 1.84 1.75 1.71 1.71 1.77 1.03 1.05 0.98 0.68 0.66 0.78 1970 0.04 1.21 1.26 1.24 1.00 1.22 2.07 2.03 1.25 1.25 1.26 1.03 1.05 1.02 0.22 0.20 0.24 1971 0.06 1.26 1.32 1.29 1.01 1.26 2.35 2.29 1.61 1.61 1.63 1.00 1.02 0.98 0.61 0.59 0.64 1972 0.09 1.35 1.46 1.41 1.00 1.34 2.76 2.62 2.17 2.17 2.16 1.01 1.03 0.97 1.16 1.14 1.20 1973 0.10 1.46 1.52 1.49 1.03 1.43' 3.35 - 3.22 2.42 2.42 2.49 0.99 1.01 0.96 1.43 1.41 1.53 1974 -0.03 1.80 1.88 1.84 1.03 1.90 4.04 4.16 2.98 2.98 3.07 1.35 1.40 1.44 1.63 1.58 1.62 1975 -0.03 2.07 2.16 2.12 1.05 2.21 4.49 4.67 4.38 4.38 4.6'1 1.53 1.53 1.59 2.85 2.85 3.02 1976 -0.03 2.54 2.44 2.48 1.07 2.58 5.60 5.85 6.34 6.34 6.79 1.51 1.65 1.73 4.83 4.69 5.06 1977 0.10 3.24 3.11 3.15 1.17 3.13 7.57 7.52 6.28 6.28 7.32 2.11 2.23 2.22 4.17 4.05 5.10 1978 0.14 3.96 3.80 3.85 1.13 3.70 9.51 9.14 4.43 4.43 5.01 2.59 2.86 2.74 1.84 1.57 2.27 1979 -0.06 4.65 4.47 4.53 0.96 4.66 12.02 12.37 9.28 9.28 8.91 3.13 3.40 3.50 6.15 5.88 5.41 1980 0.11 5.77 5.55 5.62 1.11 5.44 15.13 14.66 8.10 8.10 8.97 3.73 4.25 4.14 4.37 3.85 4.84 1981 0.03 6.85 6.58 6.67 1.10 6.77 18.37 18.64 11.34 11.34 12.53 4.99 5.59 5.69 6.35 5.75 6.84 1982 0.08 8.37 8.04 8.15 1.15 8.15 23.09 23.09 14.46 14.46 16.66 6.95 7.38 7.40 7.51 7.08 9.25 1983 0.15 10.31 9.91 10.04 1.14 9.63 28.54 27.40 17.01 17.01 19.46 9.87 10.29 9.89 7.14 6.72 9.57 1984 0.15 13.37 12.33 12.66 1.11 12.03 34.83 33.10 26.76 26.76 29.67 13.66 13.65 12.91 13.10 13.11 16.76 fable 81: Basic data for analysis of relative prices HILK YEAR tm Pit PInt PN E*/E PN* VAN VAN* P PU PU* IC ICI IC* VA VAI VA* ................................................................................................................................ 1960 -0.14 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.90 0.99 0.78 0.81 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.43 1.39 1.54 0.57 0.61 0.46 1961 -0.14 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.95 1.05 0.86 0.91 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.45 1.45 1.58 0.46 0.46 0.33 1962 -0.09 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.94 1.01 0.91 0.94 1.97 1.97. 1.97 .1.49 1.49 1.62 0.48 0.48 0.35 1963 0.00 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.07 2.07 2.07 1.56 1.59 1.72 0.51 0.48 0.35 1964 -0.12 1.01 1.02 1.01 0.91 1.05 1.10 1.14 2.33 2.33 2.33 1.60 1.64 1.79 0.73 0.69 0.54 195 -0.11 1.04 1.05 1.04 0.92 1.07 1.22 1.26 2.26 2.26 2.26 1.66 1.67 1.82 0.60 0.59 0.44 1966 -0.08 1.08 1.09 1.08 0.93 1.10 1.36 1.38 2.50 2.50 2.50 1.70 1.72 1.87 0.80 0.78 0.63 19o7 -0.10 1.12 1.13 1.12 0.89 1.13 1.52 1.53 3.10 2.60 2.60 1.68 1.70 1.85 1.42 0.90 0.75 1968 0.01 1.14 1.15 1.14 0.99 1.13 1.67 1.65 3.10 2.60 2.60 1.70 1.77 1.91 1.40 0.83 0.69 1969 0.13 1.18 1.23 1.21 1.03 1.15 1.84 1.75 3.10 2.60 2.60 1.70 1.77 1.89 1.40 0.83 0.71 1970 0.04 1.21 1.26 1.24 1.00 1.22 2.07 2.03 3.10 2.60 2.60 1.70 1.74 1.86 1.40 0.86 0.74 1971 0.06 1.26 1.32 1.29 1.01 1.26 2.35 2.29 3.50 3.20 3.20 1.69 1.69 1.81 1.81 1.51 1.39 1972 0.09 1.35 1.46 1.41 1.00 1.34 2.76 2.62 3.60 3.20 3.20 1.72 1.68 1.79 1.88 1.52 1.41 1973 0.10 1.46 1.52 1.49 1.03 1.43 3.35 3.22 3.60 3.20 3.20 1.81 1.88 1.99 1.79 1.32 1.21 1974 -0.03 1.80 1.88 1.84 1.03 1.90 4.04 4.16 4.90 4.40 4.40 2.13 2.51 2.69 2.77 1.89 1.71 1975 -0.03 2.07 2.16 2.12 1.05 2.21 4.49 4.67 6.74 6.44 6.44 2.97 3.03 3.26 3.77 3.41 3.18 1976 -0.03 2.54 2.44 2.48 1.07 2.58 5.60 5.85 7.84 7.54 7.54 2.85 3.23 3.47 4.99 4.31 4.07 1977 0.10 3.24 3.11 3.15 1.17 3.13 7.57 7.52 8.95 8.65 8.65 3.80 4.08 4.38 5.15 4.57 4.27 1978 0.14 3.96 3.80 3.85 1.13 3.70 9.51 9.14 12.51 12.21 12.21 4.68 4.99 5.34 7.83 7.22 6.87 1979 -0.06 4.65 4.47 4.53 0.96 4.66 12.02 12.37 14.01 13.71 13.71 5.86 6.27 6.77 8.15 7.44 6.94 1980 0.11 5.77 5.55 5.62 1.11 5.44 15.13 14.66 14.51 13.71 13.71 7.12 8.57 9.25 7.39 5.14 4.46 1981 0.03 6.85 6.58 6.67 1.10 6.77 18.37 18.64 16.47 15.27 15.27 9.58 11.27 12.11 6.89 4.00 3.16 1982 0.08 8.37 8.04 8.15 1.15 8.15 23.09 23.09 20.35 19.15 19.15 12.77 13.26 14.28 7.58 5.89 4.51 1983 0.15 10.31 9.91 10.04 1.14 9.63 28.54 27.40 28.10 20.50 20.50 19.64 17.27 18.90 8.46 3.23 1.60 1984 0.15 13.37 12.33 12.66 1.11 12.03 34.83 33.10 30.02 29.02 29.02 26.22 25.44 27.24 3.80 3.58 1.78 Table 81: Basic data for analysis of relative prices WINE (tradable) YEAR tm PNt PNnt PN E*/E PN* VAN VAN* P PU PU* IC IN IC* VA VA1 VA* 1960 -0.14 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.90 0.99 0.78 0.81 2.84 2.54 2.36 0.63 0.55 0.67 2.21 1.99 1.69 1961 -0.14 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.95 1.05 0.86 0.91 3.34 2.46 2.43 0.63 0.55 0.69 2.71 1.91 1.74 1902 -0.09 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.94 1.01 0.91 0.94 2.54 2.67 2.60 0.61 0.53 0.63 1.93 2.14 1.97 1963 0.00 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.22 2.87 2.98 0.62 0.54 0.63 1.60 2.33 2.35 1964 -0.12 1.01 1.02 1.01 0.91 1.05 1.10 1.14 2.22 2.94 2.75 0.62 0.54 0.66 1.60 2.40 2.09 1965 -0.11 1.04 1.05 1.04 0.92 1.07 1.22 1.26 2.18 3.04 2.90 0.63 0.53 0.66 1.55 2.51 2.24 1966 -0.08 1.08 1.09 1.08 0.93 1.10 1.36 1.38 2.98 3.20 3.09 0.65 0.55 0.,67 2.33 2.65 2.42 1967 -0.10 1.12 1.13 1.12 0.89 1.13 1.52 1.53 4.01 4.17 3.81 0.62 0.52 0.64 3.39 3.65 3.16 1968 0.01 1.14 1.15 1.14 0.99 1.13 1.67 1.65 3.77 5.20 5.24 0.63 0.54 0.63 3.14 4.66 4.61 1969 0.13 1.18 1.23 1.21 1.03 1.15 1.84 1.75 4.96 5.42 5.69 0.63 0.54 0.60 * 4.33 4.88 5.10 1970 0.04 1.21 1.26 1.24 1.00 1.22 2.07 2.03 4.38 7.25 7.40 0.63 0.52 0.62 3.75 6.73 6.18 1971 0.06 1.26 1.32 1.29 1.01 1.26 2.35 2.29 5.22 7.93 8.13 0.62 0.51 0.61 4.60 7.42 7.53 1972 0.09 1.35 1.46 1.41 1.00 1.34 2.76 2.62 6.20 9.46 9.55 0.62 0.51 0.59 5.58 8.95 8.96 1973 0.10 1.46 1.52 1.49 1.03 1.43 3.35 3.22 7.23 10.92 11.37 0.61 0.48 0.59 6.62 10.44 10.78 1974 -0.03 1.80 1.88 1.84 1.03 1.90 4.04 4.16 5.51 12.93 13.50 0.81 0.65 0.86 4.70 12.28 12.64 1975 -0.03 2.07 2.16 2.12 1.05 2.21 4.49 4.67 6.39 19.96 10.70 0.90 0.69 0.93 5.49 9.27 9.1 1976 -0.03 2.54 2.44 2.48 1.07 2.58 5.60 5.85 8.32 11.75 12.84 0.87 0.72 1.00 7.45 11.03 11.84 1977 0.10 3.24 3.11 3.15 1.17 3.13 7.57 7.52 15.12 19.69 23.27 1.22 0.97 1.30 13.90 18.72 21.98 1978 0.14 3.96 3.80 3.85 1.13 3.70 9.51 9.14 30.63 21.77 25.01 1.52 1.31 1.64 29.11 20.46 25.31 1979 -0.06 4.65 4.47 4.53 0.96 4.66 12.02 12.37 15.76 30.35 29.61 1.81 1.51 2.04 13.95 28.84 27.51 1980 0.11 5.77 5.55 5.62 1.11 5.44 15.13 14.66 18.25 38.38 43.06 2.13 1.90 2.39 16.12 36.48 40.61 1981 0.03 6.85 6.58 6.67 1.10 6.77 18.37 18.64 30.07 25.92 29.33 2.80 2.50 3.23 27.27 23.42 26.10 4982 0.08 8.37 8.04 8.15 1.15 8.15 23.09 23.09 26.70 34.72 40.82 3.85 3.33 4.16 22.85 31.39 36.66 1983 0.15 10.31 9.91 10.04 1.14 9.63 28.54 27.40 30.49 29.54 34.80 5.31 4.52 5.35 25.18 25.02 29.45 1984 0.15 13.37 12.33 12.66 1.11 12.03 34.83 33.1C 36.01 39.66 45.26 7.35 6.03 6.99 28.66 33.63 38.2/ Table 81: Basic data for analysis of relative prices rice RICE YEAR tm PNt PNnt PN E*/E PN* VAN VAN* P Pu PW* IC IC1 IC* VA VA1 VA* ........................................................................................................................... 1960 -0.14 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.90 0.99 0.78 0.81 2.61 2.56 2.31 2.04 2.04 2.15 0.57 0.52 0.16 1961 -0.14 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.95 1.05 0.86 0.91 2.72 2.63 2.51 2.04 2.05 2.20 0.68 0.58 0.31 1962 -0.09 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.94 1.01 0.91 0.94 2.74 4.11 3.89 1.97 1.99 2.06 0.77 2.12 1.83 1963 0.00 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.80 2.88 2.91 2.01 2.08 2.09 0.79 0.80 0.81 1964 -0.12 1.01 1.02 1.01 0.91 1.05 1.10 1.14 2.96 2.83 2.58 2.01 2.08 2.16 0.95 0.75 0.42 1965 -0.11 1.04 1.05 1.04 0.92 1.07 1.22 1.26 3.01 2.48 2.29 2.03 2.10 2.18 0.98 0.38 0.11 1966 -0.08 1.08 1.09 1.08 0.93 100 1.36 1.38 3.22 2.92 2.74 2.08 2.15 2.20 1.14 0.77 0.54 1967 -0.10 1.12 1.13 1.12 0.89 1.13 1.52 1.53 3.34 3.18 2.84 2.00 2.08 2.11 1.34 1.10 0.73 1968 0.01 1.14 1.15 1.14 0.99 1.13 1.67 1.65 3.55 3.25 3.22 2.03 2.16 2.14 1.52 1.09 1.07 1969 0.13 1.18 1.23 1.21 1.03 1.15 1.84 1.75 3.63 2.72 2.80 2.02 2.16 2.05 1.61 0.56 0.75 1970 0.04 1.21 1.26 1.24 1.00 1.22 2.07 2.03 3.71 2.90 2.91 2.05 2.13 2.08 1.66 0.77 0.83 1971 0.06 1.26 1.32 1.29 1.01 1.26 2.35 2.29 3.79 4.33 4.37 2.00 2.10 2.05 1.79 2.23 2.32 1 1972 0.09 1.35 1.46 1.41 1.00 1.34 2.76 2.62 3.62 2.60 2.59 2.02 2.11 2.01 1.60 0.49 0.58 F- 1973 0.10 1.46 1.52 1.49 1.03 1.43 3.35 3.22 3.62 4.38 4.50 2.00 2.09 2.01 1.62 2.29 2.49 4 1974 -0.03 1.80 1.88 1.84 1.03 1.90 4.04 4.16 5.03 8.20 8.44 2.57 2.85 2.94 2.46 5.35 5.50 1 1975 -0.03 2.07 2.16 2.12 1.05 2.21 4.49 4.67 6.17 6.98 7.35 3.05 3.05 3.17 3.12 3.93 4.18 1976 -0.03 2.54 2.44 2.48 1.07 2.58 5.60 5.85 6.82 6.84 7.32 3.04 3.39 3.56 3.78 3.45 3.76 1977 0.10 3.24 3.11 3.15 1.17 3.13 7.57 7.52 7.37 8.36 9.69 4.34 4.58 4.70 3.03 3.78 5.00 1978 0.14 3.96 3.80 3.85 1.13 3.70 9.51 9.14 9.98 10.80 12.16 5.45 5.82 5.77 4.53 4.98 6.39 1979 -0.06 4.65 4.47 4.53 0.96 4.66 12.02 12.37 12.75 11.95 11.50 6.63 7.01 7.12 6.12 4.94 4.38 1980 0.11 5.77 5.55 5.62 1.11 5.44 15.13 14.66 15.22 13.27 14.63 8.02 9.42 9.47 7.20 3.85 5.16 1981 0.03 6.85 6.58 6.67 1.10 6.77 18.37 18.64 18.26 23.55 25.97 10.50 12.01 12.46 7.76 11.54 13.51 1982 0.08 8.37 8.04 8.15 1.15 8.15 23.09 23.09 22.01 21.86 25.07 15.05 15.62 16.18 6.96 6.24 8.89 1983 0.15 10.31 9.91 10.04 1.14 9.63 28.54 27.40 28.92 24.99 28.43 19.48 21.48 21.59 9.44 3.51 6.84 1984 0.15 13.37 12.33 12.66 1.11 12.03 34.83 33.10 42.20 34.97 38.60 27.05 27.04 26.50 15.15 7.93 12.10 Table 81: Basic data for analysis of relative prices TOMATO ........................................................................................................................ YEAR tm PNt PNnt PH E*/E PH* VAN VAN* P PU PU* IC 1I1 IC* VA VAI VA* .. . ................................................................................................... 1960 -0.14 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.90 0.99 0.78 0.81 0.54 0.54 0.48 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.36 0.36 0.30 1961 -0.14 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.95 1.05 0.86 0.91 0.54 0.54 0.51 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.36 0.36 0.32 1962 -0.09 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.91 1.01 0.91 0.94 0.54 0.54 0.51 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.37 0.37 0.33 1963 0.00 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.36 0.36 0.37 1965 -0.12 1.01 1.02 1.01 0.91 1.05 1.10 1.1 0.54 0.54 0.49 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.36 0.36 0.31 1965 -0.11 1.04 1.05 1.04 0.92 1.07 1.22 1.26 0.54 0.54 0.50 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.36 0.36 0.31 1966 -0.08 1.08 1.09 1.08 0.93 1.10 1.36 1.36 0.54 0.54 0.50 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.36 0.36 0.32 1967 -0.10 1.12 1.13 1.12 0.89 1.13 1.52 1.53 0.54 0.54 0.48 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.37 0.36 0.30 1968 0.01 1.14 1.15 1.14 0.99 1.13 1.67 1.65 0.54 0.54 0.53 0.A8 0.18 0.18 0.36 0.36 0.35 1969 0.13 1.18 1.23 1.21 1.03 1.15 1.84 1.75 0.55 0.54 0.56 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.37 0.36 0.39 1970 0.04 1.21 1.26 1.24 1.00 1.22 2.07 2.03 0.57 0.54 0.54 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.39 0.36 0.37 1971 0.06 1.26 1.32 1.29 1.01 1.26 2.35 2.29 0.60 0.54 0.55 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.43 0.36 0.37 1972 0.09 1.35 1.46 1.41 1.00 1.34 2.76 2.62 0.61 0.54 0.54 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.44 0.36 0.37 1973 0.10 1.46 1.52 1.49 1.03 1.43 3.35 3.22 0.69 0.69 0.71 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.52 0.51 0.54 1974 -0.03 1.80 1.88 1.84 1.03 1.90 4.04 4.16 1.44 0.89 0.92 0.22 0.23 0.24 1.22 0.66 0.67 1975 -0.03 .2.07 2.16 2.12 1.05 2.21 4.49 4.67 1.41 1.00 1.05 0.27 0.27 0.28 1.14 0.73 0.77 1976 -0.03 2.54 2.44 2.48 1.07 2.58 5.60 5.85 1.36 1.22 1.31 0.25 0.29 0.30 1.11 0.93 1.00 1977 0.10 3.24 3.11 3.15 1.17 3.13 7.57 7.52 1.47 1.47 1.71 0.35 0.38 0.39 1.12 1.09 1.32 1978 0.14 3.96 3.80 3.85 1.13 3.70 9.51 9.14 1.74 1.60 1.81 0.43 0.49 0.48 1.31 1.11 1.33 1979 -0.06 4.65 4.47 4.53 0.96 4.66 12.02 12.37 2.24 1.80 1.73 0.53 0.59 0.60 1.71 1.21 1.12 1980 0.11 5.77 5.55 5.62 1.11 5.44 15.13 14.66 2.96 2.08 2.30 0.62 0.76 0.76 2.34 1.32 1.55 1981 0.03 6.85 6.58 6.67 1.10 6.77 18.37 18.64 3.35 2.65 2.93 0.82 0.98 1.01 2.53 1.67 1.92 1982 0.08 8.37 8.04 8.15 1.15 8.15 23.09 23.09 4.47 4.12 4.75 1.17 1.27 1.30 3.30 2.85 3.44 1983 0.15 10.31 9.91 10.04 1.14 9.63 28.54 27.40 5.43 5.19 5.94 1.59 1.71 1.70 3.84 3.48 4.24 1984 0.15 13.37 12.33 12.66 1.11 12.03 34.83 33.10 6.79 5.90 6.54 2.20 2.17 2.11 4.59 3.73 4.43 Table 91: Basic data for analysis of relative prices CORN YEAR tm PNt PNnt- PN E*/E PN* VAN VAN* P Pu PU* IC IC1 IC* VA VA1 VA* 1960 -0.14 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.90 0.99 0.78 0.81 2.25 1.62 1.47 0.99 0.98 1.03 1.26 0.64 0.45 1961 -0.14 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.95 1.05 0.86 0.91 2.07 1.87 1.79 0.99 0.99 1.06 1.08 0.88 0.74 1962 -0.09 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.94 1.01 0.91 0.94 2.14 1.90 1.80 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.19 0.94 0.82 1963 0.00 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.15 1.80 1.82 0.97 1.01 1.02 1.18 0.79 0.80 1964 -0.12 1.01 1.02 1.01 0.91 1.05 1.10 1.14 2.12 1.82 1.67 0.97 1.01 1.04 1.15 0.81 0.63 1965 -0.11 1.04 1.05 1.04 0.92 1.07 1.22 1.26 2.63 1.95 1.81 0.99 1.02 1.05 1.64 0.93 0.76 1966 -0.08 1.08 1.09 1.08 0.93 1.10 1.36 1.38 2.49 1.99 1.87 1.01 1.05 1.06 1.48 0.94 0.81 1967 -0.10 1.12 1.13 1.12 0.89 1.13 1.52 1.53 2.43 1.96 1.76 0.97 1.01 1.01 1.46 0.95 0.75 1968 0.01 1.14 1.15 1.14 0.99 1.13 1.67 1.65 2.46 1.97 1.95 0.99 1.06 1.04 1.47 0.91 0.90 1969 0.13 1.18 1.23 1.21 1.03 1.15 1.84 1.75 2.43 1.94 1.99 0.98 1.05 1.00 1.45 0.89 0.99 1970 0.04 1.21 1.26 1.24 1.00 1.22 2.07 2.03 2.34 2.18 2.19 0.98 1.02 1.00 1.36 1.16 1.19 1971 0.06 1.26 1.32 1.29 1.01 1.26 2.35 2.29 2.77 2.07 2.09 0.94 1.00 0.98 1.83 1.07 1.11 1972 0.09 1.35 1.46 1.41 1.00 1.34 2.76 2.62 2.77 1.86 1.85 0.95 1.00 0.96 1.82 0.86 0.89 1973 0.10 1.46 1.52 1.49 1.03 1.43 3.35 3.22 2.62 2.62 2.68 0.95 1.00 0.97 1.67 1.62 1.72 1974 -0.03 1.80 1.88 1.84 1.03 1.90 4.04 4.16 3.88 4.99 5.14 1.16 1.31 1.35 2.72 3.68 3.79 1975 -0.03 2.07 2.16 2.12 1.05 2.21 4.49 4.67 5.36 4.12 4.33 1.66 1.65 1.72 3.70 2.47 2.61 1976 -0.03 2.54 2.44 2.48 1.07 2.58 5.60 5.85 5.35 4.08 4.36 1.44 1.79 1.88 3.91 2.29 2.48 1977 0.10 3.24 3.11 3.15 1.17 3.13 7.57 7.52 6.38 4.51 5.20 1.99 2.27 2.36 4.39 2.24 2.84 1978 0.14 3.96 3.80 3.85 1.13 3.70 9.51 9.14 7.23 5.26 5.88 2.30 2.90 2.90 4.93 2.36 2.98 1979 -0.06 4.65 4.47 4.53 0.96 4.66 12.02 12.37 8.32 6.78 6.54 2.95 3.57 3.61 5.37 3.21 2.93 1980 0.11 5.77 5.55 5.62 1.11 5.44 15.13 14.66 9.64 7.97 8.75 3.43 4.74 4.81 6.21 3.23 3.94 1981 0.03 6.85 6.58 6.67 1.10 6.77 18.37 18.64 12.78 11.05 12.15 4.63 6.12 6.38 8.15 4.93 5.77 1982 0.08 8.37 8.04 8.15 1.15 8.15 23.09 23.09 15.09 10.87 12.39 6.81 7.80 8.16 8.28 3.07 4.23 1983 0.15 10.31 9.91 10.04 1.14 9.63 28.54 27.40 23.73 16.82 19.05 9.37 10.58 10.78 14.36 6.24 8.27 1984 0.15 13.37 12.33 12.66 1.11 12.03 34.83 33.10 32.50 23.81 26.18 12.88 12.85 12.77 19.62 10.96 13.41 Table Bl: Basic data for analysis of relative prices WHEAT YEAR tm PNt PNnt PM E*/E PN* VAN VAN* P PW PW* IC IN IC* VA VA1 VA* 1960 -0.14 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.88 0.98 0.78 0.81 2.97 2.01 1.82 1.69 1.69 1.75 1.28 0.32 0.07 1961 -0.14 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.82 0.99 0.86 0.86 2.97 2.03 1.94 1.69 1.70 1.81 1.28 0.33 0.13 1962 -0.09 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.92 1.00 0.91 0.93 2.97 2.07 1.96 1.64 1.65 1.69 1.33 0.42 0.27 1963 0.00 1.00 1.01 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 3.02 2.00 2.02 1.67 1.75 1.76 1.35 0.25 0.26 1964 -0.12 1.01 1.02 1.01 0.91 1.05 1.10 1.14 3.02 2.16 1.97 1.67 1.75 1.80 1.35 0.41 0.18 1965 -0.11 1.04 1.05 1.04 0.91 1.07 1.22 1.25 3.24 1.86 1.72 1.69 1.77 1.81 1.55 0.09 -0.09 1966 -0.08 1.08 1.09 1.08 0.95 1.11 1.36 1.39 3.26 2.04 1.91 1.72 1.81 1.83 1.54 0.23 0.08 1967 -0.10 1.12 1.13 1.12 0.97 1.17 1.52 1.59 3.26 2.13 1.91 1.66 1.74 1.75 1.60 0.39 0.16 1968 0.01 1.14 1.15 1.14 1.02 1.15 1.67 1.67 3.26 1.92 1.90 1.69 1.84 1.82 1.57 0.08 0.08 1969 0.13 1.18 1.23 1.21 1.11 1.19 1.84 1.81 3.26 1.75 1.80 1.68 1.83 1.76 1.58 -0.08 0.04 1970 0.04 1.21 1.26 1.24 1.05 1.24 2.07 2.07 3.26 2.08 2.09 1.68 1.77 1.74 1.58 0.31 0.35 1971 0.06 1.26 1.32 1.29 1.06 1.28 2.35 2.34 3.55 1.86 1.88 1.63 1.75 1.71 1.92 0.11 0.17 1972 0.09 1.35 1.46 1.41 1.11 1.41 2.76 2.75 3.55 2.20 2.19 1.65 1.75 1.68 1.90 0.45 0.51 C 1973 0.10 1.46 1.52 1.49 1.09 1.47 3.35 3.31 3.55 3.98 4.08 1.64 1.75 1.69 1.91 2.23 2.39 1974 -0.03 1.80 1.88 1.84 0.93 1.81 4.04 3.98 4.26 5.71 5.88 2.01 2.33 2.40 2.25 3.38 3.48 1 1975 -0.03 2.07 2.16 2.12 0.90 2.07 4.49 4.38 4.94 5.39 5.67 2.82 2.81 2.93 2.12 2.58 2.75 1976 -0.03 2.54 2.44 2.48 0.88 2.43 5.60 5.51 4.94 4.76 5.09 2.56 3.10 3.26 2.38 1.66 1.83 1977 0.10 3.24 3.11 3.15 0.97 2.93 7.57 7.03 6.05 5.06 5.85 3.59 4.01 4.18 2.46 1.05 1.67 1978 0.14 3.96 3.80 3.85 1.04 3.58 9.51 8.86 7.59 6.14 6.89 4.29 5.05 5.09 3.30 1.09 1.80 1979 -0.06 4.65 4.47 4.53 0.96 4.66 12.02 12.35 11.22 8.24 7.94 5.45 6.24 6.30 5.77 2.00 1.64 1980 0.11 5.77 5.55 5.62 1.03 5.30 15.13 14.27 12.86 10.06 11.08 6.49 8.57 8.73 6.37 1.49 2.34 1981 0.03 6.85 6.58 6.67 0.94 6.40 18.37 17.63 14.69 13.17 14.50 8.66 10.97 11.48 6.03 2.20 3.02 1982 0.08 8.37 8.04 8.15 0.96 7.63 23.09 21.61 17.93 13.69 15.66 12.82 14.06 14.79 5.11 -0.37 0.87 1983 0.15 10.31 9.91 10.04 1.04 9.29 28.54 26.41 23.80 18.07 20.51 16.96 19.37 19.85 6.84 -1.30 0.66 1984 0.15 13.37 12.33 12.66 1.07 11.87 34.83 32.65 34.94 24.24 26.70 23.41 23.39 23.34 11.53 0.85 3.36 fable B1: Basic data for analysis of relative prices BEEF YEAR tm PNt PNnt PN E*/E PN* VAN VAN* P PW PW* IC IC1 IC* VA VA1 VA* .............................................................................................................................. 1960 -0.14 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.88 0.98 . 0.78 0.81 20.38 15.01 13.87 21.34 20.70 22.80 -0.96 -5.69 -8.93 1961 -0.14 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.82 0.99 0.86 0.86 20.47 13.97 13.61 21.76 21.64 23.63 -1.29 -7.67 -10.02 1962 -0.09 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.92 1.00 0.91 0.93 20.46 13.78 13.24 22.45 22.36 24.27 -1.99 -8.58 -11.03 1963 0.00 1.00 1.01 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 22.20 13.97 14.08 23.52 23.92 25.79 -1.32 -9.95 -11.71 1964 -0.12 1.01 1.02 1.01 0.91 1.05 1.10 1.14 24.48 19.91 18.45 25.22 25.63 27.71 -0.74 -5.72 -9.25 1965 -0.11 1.04 1.05 1.04 0.91 1.07 1.22 1.25 24.23 20.03 18.78 26.06 26.04 28.13 -1.83 -6.01 -9.35 1966 -0.08 1.08 1.09 1.08 0.95 1.11 1.36 1.39 27.62 20.16 19.09 26.35 26.54 28.61 1.27 -6.38 -9.52 1967 -0.10 1.12 1.13 1.12 0.97 1.17 1.52 1.59 29.67 18.76 17.06 25.98 26.19 28.22 3.69 -7.43 -11.lå 1968 0.01 1.14 1.15 1.14 1.02 1.15 1.67 1.67 29.67 16.54 16.36 26.70 27.53 29.48 2.97 -10.99 -13.11 1969 0.13 1.18 1.23 1.21 1.11 1.19 1.84 1.81 30.13 17.43 17.72 26.72 27.55 29.26 3.41 -10.12 -11.54 1970 0.04 1.21 1.26 1.24 1.05 1.24 2.07 2.07 31.54 21.50 21.52 26.64 27.11 28.88 4.90 -5.61 -7.36 1971 0.06 1.26 1.32 1.29 1.06 1.28 2.35 2.34 36.69 25.62 25.75 26.69 26.23 27.96 10.00 -0.61 -2.20 1972 0.09 1.35 1.46 1.41 1.11 1.41 2.76 2.75 39.56 27.44 27.18 26.98 25.83 27.45 12.58 1.61 -0.27 1973 0.10 1.46 1.52 1.49 1.09 1.47 3.35 3.31 53.60 31.34 31.95 27.47 28.47 30.08 26.13 2.87 1.87 1974 -0.03 1.80 1.88 1.84 0.93 1.81 4.04 3.98 61.81 40.02 41.21 32.07 37.90 40.60 29.74 2.12 0.61 1975 -0.03 2.07 2.16 2.12 0.90 2.07 4.49 4.38 70.65 31.47 33.06 44.12 45.18 48.53 26.53 -13.71 -15.47 1976 -0.03 2.54 2.44 2.48 0.88 2.43 5.60 5.51 85.12 33.32 35.51 42.28 47.76 51.32 42.84 -14.44 -15.81 1977 0.10 3.24 3.11 3.15 0.97 2.93 7.57 7.03 113.30 42.79 48.45 52.68 56.75 61.09 60.62 -13.96 -12.65 1978 0.14 3.96 3.80 3.85 1.04 3.58 9.51 8.86 130.83 53.77 59.12 66.62 71.09 76.29 64.21 -17.32 -17.17 1979 -0.06 4.65 4.47 4.53 0.96 4.66 12.02 12.35 182.03 84.93 82.38 84.90 90.88 98.01 97.13 -5.95 -15.62 1980 0.11 5.77 5.55 5.62 1.03 5.30 15.13 14.27 217.50 109.72 119.54 96.07 116.56 126.37 121.43 -6.84 -6.83 1981 0.03 6.85 6.58 6.67 0.94 6.40 18.37 17.63 216.06 128.14 140.03 129.03 152.76 164.61 87.03 -24.62 -24.58 1982 0.08 8.37 8.04 8.15 0.96 7.63 23.09 21.61 239.70 162.32 183.76 175.08 182.28 196.85 64.62 -19.96 -13.09 1983 0.15 10.31 9.91 10.04 1.04 9.29 28.54 26.41 360.00 197.44 220.99 267.18 290.07 313.64 92.82 -92.63 -92.65 1984 0.15 13.37 12.33 12.66 1.07 11.87 34.83 32.65 435.87 302.33 329.76 355.21 344.76 371.02 80.66 -42.43 -41.26 Table Bl: Basic data for analysis of relative prices SHEEP YEAR tm PNt PNnt PN E*/E PN* VAN VAN* P Pu PU* IC IC1 IC* VA VAl VA* 1960 -0.14 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.88 0.98 0.78 0.81 40.23 37.60 40.58 37.59 37.03 41.61 2.64 0.57 -1.03 1961 -0.14 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.82 0.99 0.86 0.86 40.88 35.80 39.59 37.93 38.02 42.08 2.95 -2.22 -2.49 1962 -0.09 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.92 1.00 0.91 0.93 39.54 35.67 37.59 38.20 38.45 42.55 1.34 *2.78 -4.96 1963 0.00 1.00 1.01 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 49.67 42.94 43.04 39.43 41.24 45.16 10.24 1.70 -2.12 1964 -0.12 1.01 1.02 1.01 0.91 1.05 1.10 1.14 63.03 54.68 58.69 40.88 42.69 47.25 22.15 11.99 11.44 1965 -0.11 1.04 1.05 1.04 0.91 1.07 1.22 1.25 57.27 51.10 54.39 42.06 43.50 48.05 15.21 7.60 6.34 1966 -0.08 1.08 1.09 1.08 0.95 1.11 1.36 1.39 65.42 53.21 55.99 43.01 44.62 49.20 22.41 8.59 6.79 1967 -0.10 1.12 1.13 1.12 0.97 1.17 1.52 1.59 66.51 52.40 55.87 42.29 43.91 48.66 24.22 8.49 7.20 1968 0.01 1.14 1.15 1.14 1.02 1.15 1.67 1.67 63.38 48.59 48.10 42.82 46.13 50.41 20.56 2.46 -2.30 1969 0.13 1.18 1.23 1.21 1.11 1.19 1.84 1.81 78.97 58.36 52.96 43.08 46.38 50.24 35.89 11.98 2.72 C 1970 0.04 1.21 1.26 1.24 1.05 1.24 2.07 2.07 77.78 59.43 57.60 42.94 44.86 48.74 34.84 14.57 8.86 1971 0.06 1.26 1.32 1.29 1.06 1.28 2.35 2.34 102.67 76.65 73.17 42.98 44.51 48.32 59.69 32.14 24.84 1972 0.09 1.35 1.46 1.41 1.11 1.41 2.76 2.75 117.22 89.61 83.54 44.00 44.56 48.32 73.22 45.05 35.22 1973 0.10 1.46 1.52 1.49 1.09 1.47 3.35 3.31 144.14 109.18 101.63 46.01 48.50 52.04 98.13 60.68 49.60 1974 -0.03 1.80 1.88 1.84 0.93 1.81 4.04 3.98 178.86 141.42 145.75 53.52 64.05 69.29 125.34 77.37 76.46 1975 -0.03 2.07 2.16 2.12 0.90 2.07 4.49 4.38 217.50 164.59 170.34 76.27 77.23 83.51 141.23 87.36 86.83 1976 -0.03 2.54 2.44 2.48 0.88 2.43 5.60 5.51 242.88 178.93 185.60 72.69 84.06 90.63 170.19 94.87 94.97 1977 0.10 3.24 3.11 3.15 0.97 2.93 7.57 7.03 291.37 221.92 212.21 96.51 104.77 112.63 194.86 117.15 99.58 1978 0.14 3.96 3.80 3.85 1.04 3.58 9.51 8.86 309.25 240.90 223.47 117.06 127.96 137.86 192.19 112.94 85.61 1979 -0.06 4.65 4.47 4.53 0.96 4.66 12.02 12.35 411.31 319.11 332.93 149.24 161.76 177.14 262.07 157.35 155.78 1980 0.11 5.77 5.55 5.62 1.03 5.30 15.13 14.27 469.21 396.98 379.28 176.01 220.54 240.48 293.20 176.44 138.80 Table 82: Calculations of rates of protection RICE :................................-.....-.................-..-....-.---.---.******.--.----***.**-.***.--- P/PN PW/PN PU*/PN* VA/VAN VAl/VAM VA*/VAN* YEAR RP RPW RPU* RVA RVA1 RVA& NPRd NPRi MPRt ERPd ERPi ERPt 1960 2.76 2.71 2.34 0.73 0.67 0.20 0.02 0.11 0.18 0.09 2.30 2.60 1961 2.77 2.68 2.40 0.79 0.68 0.34 0.03 0.05 0.16 0.17 1.00 1.34 1962 2.79 4.19 3.85 0.84 2.33 1.95 -0.33 0.06 -0.27 -0.64 0.19 -0.57 1963 2.80 2.88 2.89 0.79 0.80 0.81 -0.03 -0.01 -0.03 -0.00 -0.02 -0.02 1964 2.93 2.80 2.47 0.86 0.68 0.37 0.05 0.10 0.19 0.28 0.84 1.35 1965 2.89 2.38 2.13 0.81 0.31 0.09 0.21 0.08 0.36 1.61 2.40 7.86 1966 2.98 2.70 2.49 0.84 0.57 0.39 0.10 0.07 0.20 0.49 0.45 1.17 1967 2.98 2.84 2.51 0.88 0.73 0.48 0.05 0.12 0.19 0.21 0.53 0.86 1968 3.11 2.85 2.85 0.91 0.65 0.65 0.09 0.01 0.09 0.40 0.00 0.40 1969 3.00 2.25 2.44 0.87 0.30 0.43 0.33 -0.03 0.23 1.87 -0.29 1.04 1970 2.99 2.34 2.39 0.80 0.37 0.41 0.28 -0.00 0.25 1.15 -0.08 0.97 1971 2.94 3.36 3.48 0.76 0.95 1.02 -0.12 -0.01 -0.16 -0.20 -0.07 -0.25 1972 2.57 1.84 1.93 0.58 0.18 0.22 0.39 0.01 0.33 2.23 -0.19 1.61 o 1973 2.43 2.94 3.14 0.48 0.69 0.77 -0.17 -0.03 -0.23 -0.29 -0.11 -0.37 1974 2.73 4.46 4.45 0.61 1.32 1.32 -0.39 -0.03 -0.39 -0.54 0.00 -0.54 1975 2.91 3.29 3.33 0.69 0.88 0.89 -0.12 -0.05 -0.13 -0.21 -0.02 -0.22 1976 2.76 2.76 2.83 0.67 0.62 0.64 -0.00 -0.07 -0.03 0.09 -0.04 0.05 T977 2.34 2.65 3.10 0.40 0.50 0.66 -0.12 -0.14 -0.24 -0.20 -0.25 -0.40 1978 2.59 2.81 3.29 0.48 0.52 0.70 -0.08 -0.11 -0.21 -0.09 -0.25 -0.32 1979 2.82 2.64 2.47 0.51 0.41 0.35 0.07 0.04 0.14 0.24 0.16 0.44 1980 2.71 2.36 2.69 0.48 0.25 0.35 0.15 -0.09 0.01 0.87 -0.28 0.35 1981 2.74 3.53 3.84 0.42 0.63 0.72 -0.22 -0.09 -0.29 -0.34 -0.13 -0.42 1982 2.70 2.68 3.08 0.30 0.27 0.39 0.01 -0.13 -0.12 0.11 -0.30 -0.22 1983 2.88 2.49 2.95 0.33 0.12 0.25 0.16 -0.12 -0.02 1.69 -0.51 0.32 1984 3.33 2.76 3.21 0.44 0.23 0.37 0.21 -0.09 0.04 0.91 -0.38 0.19 Table 82: Calcutations of rites of protection TOMATO P/PN PW/PN PW*/PN* VA/VAN VAI/VAN VA*/VAN* YEAR RP RPW RPU* RVA RVAI RVA* NPRd NPRi NPRt ERPd ERPi ERPt 1960 0.57 0.57 0.49 0.46 0.47 0.37 0.00 0.11 0.16 -0.01 0.27 0.26 1961 0.55 0.55 0.49 0.42 0.43 0.35 0.00 0.05 0.12 -0.01 0.20 0.19 1962 0.55 0.55 0.50 0.40 0.41 0.36 0.00 0.06 0.09 -0.00 0.14 0.14 1963 0.54 0.54 0.54 . 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.00 -0.01 -0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.00 1964 0.53 0.53 0.47 0.33 0.33 0.27 0.00 0.10 0.14 0.00 0.23 0.23 1965 0.52 0.52 0.46 0.30 0.30 0.25 0.00 0.09 0.12 0.00 0.20 0.20 1966 0.50 0.50 0.46 0.26 0.26 0.23 0.00 0.07 0.09 0.00 0.15 0.15 1967 0.48 0.48 0.42 0.24 0.24 0.20 0.00 0.13 0.14 0.00 0.23 0.23 1968 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 1969 0.45 0.45 0.49 0.20 0.19 0.22 0.02 -0.03 -0.06 0.04 -0.12 -0.08 1970 0.46 0.44 0.45 0.19 0.17 0.18 0.06 -0.00 0.03 0.09 -0.04 0.05 1971 0.47 0.42 0.43 0.18 0.15 0.16 0.11 -0.01 0.07 0.18 -0.06 0.11 1972 0.43 0.38 0.40 0.16 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.00 0.08 0.20 -0.07 0.12 1973 0.46 0.46 0.50 0.15 0.15 0.17 0.00 -0.03 -0.07 0.01 -0.09 -0.08 1974 0.78 0.48 0.48 0.30 0.16 0.16 0.62 -0.03 0.62 0.86 0.00 0.86 1975 0.67 0.47 0.48 0.25 0.16 0.17 0.41 -0.05 0.39 0.55 -0.02 0.53 1976 0.55 0.49 0.51 0.20 0.17 0.17 0.11 -0.07 0.09 0.19 -0.03 0.15 1977 0.47 0.47 0.55 0.15 0.14 0.18 0.00 -0.14 -0.15 0.03 -0.18 -0.16 1978 0.45 0.42 0.49 0.14 0.12 0.14 0.09 -0.12 -0.08 0.18 -0.20 -0.05 1979 0.49 0.40 0.37 0.14 0.10 0.09 0.24 0.04 0.34 0.42 0.11 0.57 1980 0.53 0.37 0.42 0.15 0.09 0.11 0.42 -0.10 0.24 0.77 -0.17 0.47 1981 0.50 0.40 0.43 0.14 0.09 0.10 0.26 -0.09 0.16 0.51 -0.12 0.34 1982 0.55 0.51 0.58 0.14 0.12 0.15 0.08 -0.13 -0.06 0.16 -0.17 -0.04 1983 0.54 0.52 0.62 0.13 0.12 0.15 0.05 -0.13 -0.12 0.10 -0.21 -0.13 1984 0.54 0.47 0.54 0.13 0.11 0.13 0.15 -0.10 -0.01 0.23 -0.20 -0.02 lable 62: Calculations of rates of protection CORN .............................. ......... ........... ............................... P/PN PW/PN PW*/PN* VA/VAN VA1/VAN VA*/VAN* YEAR RP RPW RPW* RVA. RVA1 RVA* NPRd NPRi NPRt ERPd ERPi ERPt 1960 2.38 1.71 1.49 1.62 0.82 0.55 0.39 0.10 0.60 0.98 0.49 1.95 1961 2.11 1.91 1.71 1.26 1.03 0.81 0.11 0.04 0.23 0.23 0.27 0.57 1962 2.18 1.94 1.79 1.30 1.03 0.87 0.13 0.05 0.22 0.26 0.18 0.49 1963 2.15 1.80 1.81 1.18 0.79 0.80 0.19 -0.01 0.19 0.49 -0.01 0.47 1964 2.10 1.80 1.60 1.04 0.73 0.55 0.16 0.09 0.32 0.42 0.33 0.89 19t5 2.53 1.87 1.68 1.35 0.76 0.60 0.35 0.08 0.50 0.77 0.26 1.24 1966 2.30 1.84 1.70 1.09 0.69 0.58 0.25 0.06 0.36 0.57 0.19 0.87 1967 2.17 1.75 1.55 0.96 0.63 0.49 0.24 0.12 0.40 0.53 0.29 0.98 1968 2.16 1.73 1.73 0.88 0.55 0.55 0.25 0.01 0.25 0.61 0.00 0.61 19C,9 2.01 1.60 1.73 0.79 0.48 0.56 0.25 -0.03 0.16 0.63 -0.14 0.39 1970 1.89 1.76 1.80 0.66 0.56 0.58 0.07 -0.00 0.05 0.17 -0.04 0.13 1971 2.15 1.60 1.66 0.78 0.46 0.49 0.34 .0.01 0.29 0.71 -0.06 0.60 1972 1.96 1.32 1.38 0.66 0.31 0.34 0.49 0.01 0.43 1.11 -0.08 0.94 CD 1973 1.76 1.76 1.87 0.50 0.48 0.53 0.00 -0.02 -0.06 0.03 -0.09 -0.06 1974 2.11 2.71 2.71 0.67 0.91 0.91 -0.22 -0.03 -0.22 -0.26 0.00 -0.26 1975 2.53 1.94 1.96 0.82 0.55 0.56 0.30 -0.05 0.29 0.50 -0.02 0.47 1976 2.16 1.65 1.69 0.70 0.41 0.42 0.31 -0.06 0.28 0.71 -0.04 0.64 1977 2.02 1.43 1.66 0.58 0.30 0.38 0.41 -0.13 0.22 0.96 -0.22 0.54 1978 1.88 1.37 1.59 0.52 0.25 0.33 0.37 -0.11 0.18 1.09 -0.24 0.59 1979 1.84 1.50 1.40 0.45 0.27 0.24 0.23 0.04 0.31 0.67 0.13 0.89 1980 1.72 1.42 1.61 0.41 0.21 0.27 0.21 -0.09 0.07 0.92 .0.21 0.53 1981 1.92 1.66 1.79 0.44 0.27 0.31 0.16 -0.09 0.07 0.65 -0.13. 0.43 1982 1.85 1.33 1.52 0.36 0.13 0.18 0.39 -0.12 0.22 1.70 -0.27 0.96 1983 2.36 1.68 1.98 0.50 0.22 0.30 0.41 -0.12 0.20 1.30 -0.28 0.67 1984 2.57 1.88 2.18 0.56 0.31 0.41 0.36 -0.09 0.18 0.79 -0.22 0.39 Table 82: Calculations of rates of protection UEAT P/PN PW/PN PW*/PN* VA/VAN VA1/VAN VA*/VAN* YEAR RP RPW RPW* RVA RVA1 RVA* NPRd NPRI NPRt ERPd ERPi ERPt 1960 3.14 2.13 1.84 1.64 0.41 0.08 0.48 0.11 0.70 2.97 4.14 19.40 1961 3.03 2.07 1.85 1.49 0.39 0.15 0.46 0.04 0.63 2.88 1.61 9.12 1962 3.03 2.11 1.94 1.46 0.46 0.29 0.43 0.06 0.56 2.20 0.60 4.13 1963 3.02 2.00 2.01 1.35 0.25 0.26 0.51 -0.01 0.50 4.46 -0.03 4.27 1964 2.99 2.14 1.89 1.23 0.37 0.16 0.40 0.09 0.58 2.32 1.35 6.80 1965 3.11 1.79 1.60 1.27 0.07 -0.07 0.74 0.08 0.94 16.46 -2.01 -18.67 1966 3.02 1.89 1.74 1.13 0.17 0.06 0.60 0.07 0.73 5.63 1.83 17.78 1967 2.91 1.90 1.68 1.05 0.25 0.10 0.53 0.12 0.73 3.15 1.46 9.23 1968 2.86 1.68 1.68 0.94 0.05 0.05 0.70 0.01 0.70 18.36 0.01 18.53 1969 2.69 1.45 1.56 0.86 -0.04 0.02 0.86 -0.03 0.72 -20.21 -2.92 35.93 1970 2.63 1.68 1.72 0.76 0.15 0.17 0.57 -0.00 0.53 4.07 -0.13 3.44 1971 2.75 1.44 1.49 0.82 0.05 0.07 0.91 -0.01 0.84 16.31 -0.35 10.21 1972 2.52 1.56 1.63 0.69 0.16 0.20 0.61 0.01 0.54 3.23 -0.17 2.52 0 1973 2.38 2.67 2.85 0.57 0.67 0.74 -0.11 -0.03 -0.16 -0.15 -0.10 -0.23 1974 2.31 3.10 3.10 0.56 0.84 0.84 -0.25 -0.03 -0.25 -0.33 0.00 -0.33 1975 2.33 2.54 2.57 0.47 0.57 0.59 -0.08 -0.05 -0.09 -0.18 -0.02 -0.19 1976 2.00 1.92 1.97 0.42 0.30 0.31 0.04 -0.07 0.01 0.43 -0.05 0.35 1977 1.92 1.61 1.87' 0.32 0.14 0.22 0.20 -0.14 0.03 1.33 -0.37 0.46 1978 1.97 1.60 1.86 0.35 0.11 0.20 0.24 -0.11 0.06 2.04 -0.42 0.76 1979 2.48 1.82 1.70 0.48 0.17 0.13 0.36 0.04 0.46 1.88 0.26 2.62 1980 2.29 1.79 2.03 0.42 0.10 0.16 0.28 -0.09 0.12 3.28 -0.38 1.63 1981 2.20 1.98 2.14 0.33 0.12 0.16 0.12 -0.09 0.03 1.74 -0.26 1.03 1982 2.20 1.68 1.92 0.22 -0.02 0.04 0.31 -0.13 0.14 -14.67 -1.43 4.85 1983 2.37 1.80 2.13 0.24 -0.05 0.02 0.32 -0.12 0.11 -6.27 -2.89 8.97 1984 2.76 1.91 2.22 0.33 0.02 0.10 0.44 -0.09 0.24 12.59 -0.76 2.26 Table 82: Catculations of rates of protection BEEF .................................... ............................................ P/PN PW/PN PU*/PN* VA/VAN VA1/VAN VA*/VAN* YEAR RP RPU RPU* RVA RVA1 RVA* NPRd NPRi NPRt ERPd ERPi ERPt ............. ........................................................... 1960 21.56 15.88 14.15 -1.23 -7.30 -11.05 0.36 0.08 0.52 -0.83 -0.34 -0.89 1961 20.88 14.25 13.77 -1.51 -8.97 -11.63 0.47 0.03 0.52 -0.83 -0.23 -0.87 1962 20.87 14.05 13.23 -2.19 -9.41 -11.86 0.48 0.04 0.58 -0.77 -0.21 -0.82 1963 22.19 13.96 14.13 -1.32 -9.95 -11.76 0.59 -0.01 0.57 -0.87 -0.15 -0.89 1964 24.23 19.70 17.65 -0.67 -5.19 -8.12 0.23 0.08 0.37 -0.87 -0.36 -0.92 1965 23.29 19.25 17.53 -1.50 -4.93 *7.45 0.21 0.07 0.33 -0.70 -0.34 -0.80 1966 25.56 18.66 17.22 0.93 -4.70 -6.83 0.37 0.06 0.48 -1.20 -0.31 -1.14 1967 26.48 16.74 14.53 2.43 -4.90 -7.02 0.58 0.10 0.82 -1.50 -0.30 -1.35 1968 26.01 14.50 14.28 1.78 -6.60 -7.83 0.79 0.01 0.82 -1.27 -0.16 -1.23 1969 24.90 14.40 14.85 1.85 -5.50 -6.37 0.73 -0.02 0.68 -1.34 -0.14 -1.29 1970 25.43 17.34 17.38 2.37 -2.71 -3.56 0.47 -0.00 0.46 -1.87 -0.24 -1.67 1971 28.44 19.86 20.04 4.26 -0.26 -0.94 0.43 -0.01 0.42 -17.38 -0.72 -5.52 1972 28.03 19.44 19.28 4.57 0.58 -0.10 0.44 0.01 0.45 6.81 -6.93 -47.31 1973 35.97 21.03 21.70 7.81 0.86 0.56 0.71 -0.02 0.66 8.11 0.52 12.83 1974 33.58 21.74 22.72 7.36 0.52 0.15 0.54 -0.03 0.48 13.06 2.44 47.33 1975 33.32 14.84 16.00 5.91 -3.05 -3.53 1.24 -0.05 1.08 -2.94 -0.14 -2.67 1976 34.39 13.46 14.60 7.65 -2.58 -2.87 1.55 -0.06 1.36 -3.97 -0.10 -3.66 1977 35.95 13.58 16.56 8.01 -1.85 -1.80. 1.65' -0.12 1.17 -5.34 0.03 -5.45 1978 33.99 13.97 16.50 6.75 -1.82 -1.94 1.43 -0.09 1.06 -4.71 -0.06 -4.48 1979 40.20 18.75 17.70 8.08 -0.50 -1.26 1.14 0.03 1.27 -17.32 -0.61 -7.39 1980 38.71 19.53 22.56 8.02 -0.45 -0.48 0.98 -0.08 0.72 -18.75 -0.06 -17.76 1981 32.40 19.22 21.88 4.74 -1.34 -1.39 0.69 -0.08 0.48 -4.54 -0.04 -4.40 1982 29.42 19.92 24.10 2.80 -0.86 -0.61 0.48 -0.12 0.22 -4.24 0.43 -5.62 1983 35.87 19.67 23.79 3.25 -3.25 -3.51 0.82 -0.11 0.51 -2.00 -0.07 -1.93 1984 34.42 23.88 27.78 2.32 -1.22 -1.26 0.44 -0.08 0.24 -2.90 -0.04 -2.83 Table 82: Catcutations of rates of protection SHEEP P/PN PW/PN PW*/PN* VA/VAN VAI/VAN VA*/VAN* YEAR RP RPW RPU* RVA RVAI RVA* NPRd NPRi NPRt ERPd ERPi ERPt -------------------- .......................................................... 1960 42.55 39.77 41.13 3.39 0.74 -1.27 0.07 -0.07 0.03 3.60 -1.58 -3.67 1961 41.69 36.51 37.79 3.45 -2.59 -2.73 0.14 -0.10 0.10 -2.33 -0.05 -2.27 1962 40.33 36.38 37.24 1.48 -3.05 -5.29 0.11 -0.05 0.08 -1.48 -0.42 -1.28 1963 49.65 42.92 42.85 10.24 1.70 -2.11 0.16 -0.00 0.16 5.02 -1.80 -5.85 1964 62.38 54.11 56.14 20.10 10.88 10.03 0.15 -0.07 0.11 0.85 0.08 1.00 1965 55.04 49.11 50.60 12.48 6.23 5.03 0.12 -0.06 0.09 1.00 0.24 1.48 1966 60.55 49.25 50.88 16.51 6.33 4.91 0.23 -0.05 0.19 1.61 0.29 2.36 1967 59.36 46.76 49.29 15.97 5.60 4.70 0.27 -0.06 0.20 1.85 0.19 2.40 1968 55.57 42.60 42.61 12.34 1.48 -1.40 0.30 0.01 0.30 7.34 -2.06 -9.83 1969 65.26 48.23 46.07 19.51 6.52 1.55 0.35 0.10 0.42 2.00 3.19 11.55 1970 62.72 47.92 47.37 16.82 7.03 4.36 0.31 0.03 0.32 1.39 0.61 2.86 1 1971 79.57 59.41 58.28 25.40 13.68 10.86 0.34 0.05 0.37 0.86 0.26 1.34 o 1972 83.06 63.50 62.20 26.57 16.35 13.43. 0.31 0.07 0.34 0.63 0.22 0.98 1973 96.73 73.27 70.92 29.33 18.14 15.41 0.32 0.07 0.36 0.62 0.18 0.90 1974 97.18 76.84 76.86 31.02 19.15 18.37 0.26 -0.03 0.26 0.62 0.04 0.69 1975 102.59 77.63 77.21 31.45 19.45 18.58 0.32 -0.03 0.33 0.62 0.05 0.69 1976 98.13 72.29 71.82 30.38 16.93 16.23 0.36 -0.04 0.37 0.79 0.04 0.87 1977 92.46 70.42 67.79' 25.75 15.48 13.25 0.31 0.05 0.36 0.66 0.17 0.94 1978 80.35 62.59 60.44 20.20 11.87 9.37 0.28 0.08 0.33 0.70 0.27 1.16 1979 90.83 70.47 71.40 21.81 13.09 12.59 0.29 -0.04 0.27 0.67 0.04 0.73 1980 83.51 70.65 69.67 19.38 11.66 9.47 0.18 0.05 0.20 0.66 0.23 1.05 1981 60.16 57.48 57.56 9.08 5.41 4.43 0.05 -0.02 0.05 0.68 0.22 1.05 1982 62.37 57.40 57.23 7.70 5.20 3.92 0.09 0.00 0.09 0.48 0.33 0.96 1983 61.10 52.60 51.67 5.47 0.47 -2.30 0.16 0.06 0.18 10.71 -1.20 -3.37 1984 59.81 56.73 56.26 4.00 3.16 0.46 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.27 5.85 7.68 iable 82: Calculations of rates of protection POTATOES ....................................--------------..----.--------------..------------------------------ P/PN PU/PN PU*/PN* VA/VAN VAI/VAN VA*/VAM* YEAR RP RPW RPut RVA AVAl RVA* NPRd NPRi NPRt ERPd ERPi ERPt .................................-.-------............................................................ 1960 1.22 1.32 1.23 0.14 0.27 0.11 -0.08 0.03 -0.01 -0.48 1.51 0.30 1961 1.12 2.10 1.94 0.07 1.19 0.98 -0.47 0.01 -0.42 -0.94 0.22 -0.93 1962 1.43 2.91 2.72 0.44 2.03 1.80 -0.51 0.04 -0.47 -0.78 0.13 -0.76 1963 1.15 1.93 1.94 0.13 0.90 0.91 -0.40 -0.01 -0.41 -0.86 -0.01 -0.86 1964 1.09 1.85 1.70 0.07 0.76 0.60 -0.41 0.05 -0.36 -0.91 0.27 -0.88 1965 1.63 1.76 1.64 0.55 0.64 0.52 -0.07 0.04 -0.00 -0.15 0.24 0.05 1966 1.86 1.88 1.78 0.70 0.71 0.61 -0.01 0.04 0.05 -0.01 - 0.16 0.15 1967 1.01 1.60 1.48 0.07 0.50 0.40 -0.37 0.07 -0.32 -0.85 0.27 -0.81 1968 1.09 2.23 2.23 0.12 0.89 0.89 -0.51 0.01 -0.51 -0.86 0.00 -0.86 1969 1.41 2.00 2.12 0.37 0.74 0.83 -0.29 -0.01 -0.33 -0.50 -0.11 -0.56 1970 1.01 2.15 2.19 0.11 0.78 0.81 -0.53 0.00 -0.54 -0.87 -0.03 -0.87 1971 1.25 2.51 2.58 0.26 0.94 0.99 -0.50 -0.00 -0.52 -0.73 -0.04 -0.74 1972 1.54 1.25 1.28 0.42 0.27 0.29 0.23 0.03 0.20 0.56 -0.06 0.46 1973 1.62 2.08 2.18 0.43 0.62 0.67 . -0.22 -0.01 -0.25 -0.32 -0.07 -0.37 1974 1.62 1.68 1.68 0.40 0.42 0.42 -.0.04 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 0.00 -0.04 1975 2.07 3.82 3.86 0.63 1.46 1.48 -0.46 -0.05 -0.46 -0.57 -0.01. -0.57 1976 2.56 3.33 3.40 0.86 1.17 1.21 -0.23 -0.06 -0.25 -0.27 -0.03 -0.28 1977 1.99 2.74 3.11 0.55 0.84 1.00 -0.27 -0.11 -0.36 -0.35 -0.16 -0.45 1978 1.15 3.15 3.60 0.19 0.97 1.16 -0.63 -0.09 *0.68 -0.80 -0.16 -0.83 1979 2.05 3.80 3.58 0.51 1.15 1.07 -0.46 0.03 -0.43 -0.55 0.08 -0.52 1980 1.44 1.48 1.61 0.29 0.27 0.32 -0.03 -0.05 -0.10 0.07 -0.15 -0.09 1981 1.70 3.55 3.81 0.35 0.98 1.08 -0.52 -0.08 -0.55 -0.65 -0.09 -0.68 1982 1.77 1.63 1.79 0.33 0.26 0.31 0.09 -0.09 -0.01 0.27 -0.A8 0.05 1983 1.69 2.34 2.68 0.25 0.46 0.58 -0.28 -0.09 -0.37 -0.46 -0.20 -0.57 1984 2.11 2.49 2.81 0.38 0.51 0.63 -0.15 -0.07 -0.25 -0.27 -0.18 -0.40 Table 82: Calculations of rates of protection MILK P/PN PU/PN PU*/PN* VA/VAN VA1/VAN VA*/VAM* YEAR RP RPU RPU* RVA RVA1 RVA* NPRd NPRi NPRt ERPd ERPi ERPt 1960 2.12 2.12 2.03 0.74 0.78 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.04 -0.06 0.38 0.30 1961 1.95 1.95 1.82 0.54 0.54 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.07 *0.01 0.53 0.51 1962 2.01 2.01 1.95 0.53 0.53 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.03 -0.01 0.43 0.42 1963 2.07 2.07 2.06 0.51 0.48 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.37 0.47 1964 2.31 2.31 2.23 0.66 0.63 0.48 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.05 0.32 0.39 1965 2.17 2.17 2.10 0.49 0.48 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.38 0.42 1966 2.31 2.31 2.27 0.59 0.57 0.46 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.26 0.30 1967 2.77 2.32 2.29 0.94 0.59 0.49 0.19 0.00 0.21 0.58 0.21 0.92 1968 2.72 2.28 2.30 0.84 0.50 0.42 0.19 0.00 0.18 0.69 0.18 1.00 1969 2.56 2.15 2.26 0.76 0.45 0.41 0.19 0.00 0.13 0.69 0.11 0.87 1970 2.50 2.10 2.14 0.68 0.42 0.36 0.19 0.00 0.17 0.63 0.14 0.86 1971 2.71 2.48 2.55 0.77 0.64 0.61 0.09 0.00 0.06 0.20 0.06 0.26 I 1972 2.55 2.27 2.38 0.68 0.55 0.54 0.13 0.00 0.07 0.23 0.03 0.27 1973 2.42 2.15 2.23 0.53 0.39 0.38 0.13 0.00 0.08 0.36 0.05 0.42 C 1974 2.66 2.39 2.32 0.69 0.47 0.41 0.11 0.00 0.15 0.47 0.14 0.67 1975 3.18 3.04 2.92 0.84 0.76 0.68 0.05 0.00 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.23 1976 3.17 3.05 2.92 0.89 0.77 0.70 0.04 0.00 0.09 0.16 0.11 0.28 1977 2.84 2.74 2.76 0.68 0.60 0.57 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.13 0.06 0.20 1978 3.25 3.17 3.30 0.82 0.76 0.75 0.02 0.00 -0.02 0.09 0.01 0.10 1979 3.09 3.03 2.94 0.68 0.62 0.56 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.21 1980 2.58 2.44 2.52 0.49 0.34 0.30 0.06 0.00 0.03 0.44 0.12 0.60 1981 2.47 2.29 2.26 0.37 0.22 0.17 0.08 0.00 0.09 0.72 0.29 1.21 1982 2.50 2.35 2.35 0.33 0.26 0.21 0.06 0.00 0.06 0.29 - 0.21 0.56 1983 2.80 2.04 2.13 0.30 0.11 0.06 0.37 0.00 0.32 1.62 0.94 4.08 1984 2.37 2.29 2.41 0.11 0.10 0.05 0.03 0.00 *0.02 0.06 0.91 1.03 Table 82: Calculations of rates of protection WINE (tradable) P/PN PU/PM PW*/PN* VA/VAN VAI/VAN VA*/VAN* YEAR RP RPU RPW* RVA RVAI RVA* NPRd NPRi NPRt ERPd ERPi ERPt 1960 3.00 2.69 2.40 2.83 2.55 2.08 0.12 0.07 0.25 0.11 0.23 0.36 1961 3.41 2.51 2.32 3.17 2.23 1.90 0.36 0.01 0.47 0.42 0.17 0.66 1962 2.59 2.72 2.58 2.12 2.35 2.10 -0.05 0.03 0.01 -0.10 0.12 0.01 1963 2.22 2.87 2.96 1.60 2.33 2.34 -0.23 -0.04 -0.25 -0.31 -0.01 -0.32 1964 2.20 2.91 2.63 1.45 2.17 1.84 -0.24 0.07 -0.17 -0.33 0.18 -0.21 195 2.10 2.92 2.70 1.27 2.06 1.78 -0.28 0.05 -0.22 -0.38 0.16 -0.28 1966 2.76 2.96 2.81 1.72 1.95 1.75 -0.07 0.04 -0.02 -0.12 0.12 -0.02 1967 3.58 3.72 3.36 2.24 2.40 2.06 -0.04 0.10 0.07 -0.07 0.17 0.08 1968 3.31 4.56 4.65 1.89 2.80 2.80 -0.28 -0.01 -0.29 -0.33 0.00 -0.33 1969 4.10 4.48 4.95 2.36 2.66 2.92 -0.08 -0.05 -0.17 -0.11 -0.09 -0.19 1970 3.53 5.85 6.09 1.81 3.25 3.34 -0.40 -0.02 -0.42 -0.44 -0.03 -0.46 1971 4.05 6.15 6.48 1.96 3.16 3.29 -0.34 -0.02 -0.38 -0.38 -0.04 -0.40 1972 4.39 6.70 7.11 2.03 3.25 3.41 -0.34 -0.01 -0.38 -0.38 -0.05 -0.41 1973. 4.85 7.33 7.93 1.98 3.12 3.35 -0.34 -0.04 -0.39 -0.37 -0.07 -0.41 1974 2.99 7.03 7.12 1.16 3.04 3.04 -0.57 -0.04 -0.58 -0.62 0.00 -0.62 1975 3.01 4.70 4.85 1.22 2.06 2.09 -0.36 -0.07 -0.38 -0.41 -0.01 -0.41 1976 3.36 4.75 4.97 1.33 1.97 2.02 -0.29 -0.08 -0.32 -0.32 -0.03 -0.34 1977 4.80 6.25 7.43 1.84 2.47 2.92 -0.23 -0.15 -0.35 -0.26 -0.15 -0.37 1978 7.96 5.66 6.76 3.06 2.15 2.56 0.41 -0.13 0.18 0.42 -0.16 0.20 1979 3.48 6.70 6.35 1.16 2.40 2.23 -0.48 0.02 -0.45 -0.52 0.08 -0.48 1980 3.25 6.83 7.91 1.07 2.41 2.77 -0.52 -0.11 -0.59 -0.56 -0.13 -0.62 1981 4.51 3.89 4.33 1.48 1.28 1.40 0.16 -0.12 0.04 0.16 -0.09'. 0.06 1982 3.28 4.26 5.01 0.99 1.36 1.59 -0.23 -0.15 -0.35 -0.27 -0.14 -0.38 1983 3.04 2.94 3.61 0.88 0.88 1.08 0.03 -0.15 -0.16 0.01 -0.18 -0.18 1984 2.84 3.13 3.76 0.82 0.97 1.16 -0.09 -0.12 -0.24 -0.15 -0.16 -0.29 lable 83: Data for estimation of Consumer Relative Prices (contd.) MIUK YEAR mitk PNt PNnt PN E*/E PN* CP CP CPw* RCP RCP RCPM* cNPRd cNPRi cNPRt .................................................................................................................- 1960 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.90 0.99 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.75 2.75 2.64 0.00 0.04 0.04 1961 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.95 1.05 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.65 2.65 2.48 0.00 0.07 0.01 1962 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.94 1.01 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.65 2.65 2.58 0.00 0.03 0.05 1963 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.00 2.74 2.74 2.74 2.74 2.74 2.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 1964 1.01 1.02 1.01 0.91 1.05 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.05 3.05 2.95 0.00 0.03 0.03 1965 1.04 1.05 1.04 0.92 1.07 3.08 3.08 3.08 2.96 2.96 2.87 0.00 0.03 0.03 1966 1.08 1.09 1.08 0.93 1.10 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.05 3.05 3.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 1967 1.12 1.13 1.12 0.89 1.13 4.10 4.10 4.10 3.66 3.66 3.62 0.00 0.01 0.01 1968 1.14 1.15 1.14 0.99 1.13 4.10 4.10 4.10 3.59 3.59 3.63 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 1969 1.18 1.23 1.21 1.03 1.15 4.10 4.10 4.10 3.39 3.39 3.57 0.00 -0.05 -0.05 1970 1.21 1.26 1.24 1.00 1.22 4.10 4.10 4.10 3.31 3.31 3.37 0.00 -0.02 -0.0 1971 1.26 1.32 1.29 1.01 1.26 4.10 4.50 4.50 3.18 3.49 3.58 -0.09 -0.03 -0.11 1972 1.35 1.46 1.41 1.00 1.34 4.10 4.60 4.60 2.91 3.26 3.43 -0.11 -0.05 -0.15 1973 1.46 1.52 1.49 1.03 1.43 4.10 4.60 4.60 2.75 3.09 3.21 -0.11 -0.04 -0.14 1974 1.80 1.88 1.84 1.03 1.90 6.00 7.20 7.20 3.26 3.91 3.80 -0.17 0.03 -0.14 1975 2.07 2.16 2.12 1.05 2.21 6.00 8.90 8.90 2.83 4.20 4.03 -0.33 0.04 -0.30 1976 2.54 2.44 2.48 1.07 2.58 6.00 11.20 11.20 2.42 4.53 4.33 -0.46 0.04 -0.44 1977 3.24 3.11 3.15 1.17 3.13 7.00 12.05 12.05 2.22 3.82 3.85 -0.42 -0.01 -0.42 1978 3.96 3.80 3.85 1.13 3.70 8.50 16.51 16.51 2.21 4.29 4.46 -0.49 -0.04 -0.51 1979 4.65 4.47 4.53 0.96 4.66 10.00 18.51 18.51 2.21 4.09 3.97 -0.46 0.03 -0.44 1980 5.77 5.55 5.62 1.11 5.44 11.00 19.71 19.71 1.96 3.51 3.62 -0.44 -0.03 -0.46 1981 6.85 6.58 6.67 1.10 6.77 15.00 21.87 21.87 2.25 3.28 3.23 -0.31 0.01 -0.30 1982 8.37 8.04 8.15 1.15 8.15 17.50 26.65 26.65 2.15 3.27 3.27 -0.34 0.00 -0.34 1983 10.31 9.91 10.04 1.14 9.63 23.29 34.85 34.85 2.32 3.47 3.62 -0.33 -0.04 -0.36 1984 13.37 12.33 12.66 1.11 12.03 36.06 44.30 44.30 2.85 3.50 3.68 -0.19 -0.05 -0.23 1985 15.83 14.65 15.03 1.05 14.30 Ie I.ble 63: Data for estimation of Consumaer Relative Prices CORN YEAR corn PNt PNnt PN E*/E PN* CP CPU CPU* RCP RCPU RCPW* cNPRd cNPRi cNPRt 1960 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.90 0.99 2.25 1.62 1.47 2.38 1.71 1.49 0.39 0.15 0.60 1961 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.95 1.05 2.07 1.87 1.79 2.11 1.91 1.71 0.11 0.11 0.23 1962 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.94 1.01 2.14 1.90 1.80 2.18 1.94 1.79 0.13 0.09 0.22 1963 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.00 2.15 1.80 1.82 2.15 1.80 1.81 0.19 -0.00 0.19 1964 1.01 1.02 1.01 0.91 1.05 2.12 1.82 1.67 2.10 1.80 1.60 0.16 0.13 0.32 1965 1.04 1.05 1.04 0.92 1.07 2.63 1.95 1.81 2.53 1.87 1.68 0.35 0.11 0.50 1966 1.08 1.09 1.08 0.93 1.10 2.49 1.99 1.87 2.30 1.84 1.70 0.25 0.08 0.36 1967 1.12 1.13 1.12 0.89 1.13 2.43 1.96 1.76 2.17 1.75 1.55 0.24 0.13 0.40 1968 1.14 1.15 1.14 0.99 1.13 2.46 1.97 1.95 2.16 1.73 1.73 0.25 0.00 0.25 1969 1.18 1.23 1.21 1.03 1.15 2.43 1.94 1.99 2.01 1.60 1.73 0.25 -0.07 0.16 1970 1.21 1.26 1.24 1.00 1.22 2.34 2.18 2.19 1.89 1.76 1.80 0.07 -0.02 0.05 1971 1.26 1.32 1.29 1.01 1.26 2.77 2.07 2.09 2.15 1.60 1.66 0.34 -0.03 0.29 1972 1.35 1.46 1.41 1.00 1.34 2.77 1.86 1.85 1.96 1.32 1.38 0.49 -0.04 0.43 1973 1.46 1.52 1.49 1.03 1.43 2.62 2.62 2.68 1.76 1.76 1.87 0.00 -0.06 -0.06 1974 1.80 1.88 1.84 1.03 1.90 3.70 4.99 5.14 2.01 2.71 2.71 -0.26 0.00 -0.26 1975 2.07 2.16 2.12 1.05 2.21 3.7u 4.12 4.33 1.75 1.94 1.96 -0.10 -0.01 -0.11 1976 2.54 2.44 2.48 1.07 2.58 3.70 4.08 4.36 1.49 1.65 1.69 -0.09 -0.02 -0.11 1977 3.24 3.11 3.15 1.17 3.13 4.20 4.51 5.20 1.33 1.43 1.66 -0.07 -0.14 -0.20 1978 3.96 3.80 3.85 1.13 3.70 5.70 5.26 5.88 1.48 1.37 1.59 0.08 -0.14 -0.07 1979 4.65 4.47 4.53 0.96 4.66 6.70 6.78 6.54 1.48 1.50 1.40 -0.01 0.07 0.05 1980 5.77 5.55 5.62 .1.11 5.44 7.00 7.97 8.75 1.25 1.42 1.61 -0.12 -0.12 -0.22 1981 6.85 6.58 6.67 1.10 6.77 9.50 11.05 12.15 1.42 1.66 1.79 -0.14 -0.08 -0.21 1982 8.37 8.04 8.15 1.15 8.15 11.50 10.87 12.39 1.41 1.33 1.52 0.06 -0.12 -0.07 1983 10.31 9.91 10.04 1.14 9.63 16.07 16.82 19.05 1.60 1.68 1.98 -0.04 -0.15 -0.19 1984 13.37 12.33 12.66 1.11 12.03 27.74 23.81 26.18 2.19 1.88 2.18 0.17 -0.14 0.01 1985 15.83 14.65 15.03 1.05 14.30............................................................................ Table 83: Data for estimation of Consumer Relative Prices WHEAT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YEAR wheat PNt PNnt PN E*/E PN* CP CPU CPU* RCP RCPW RCPU* cNPRd clPRi cNPRt ......................................................................................................................... 1960 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.90 0.99 2.82 2.01 1.82 2.98 2.13 1.84 0.40 0.15 0.62 1961 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.95 1.05 2.82 2.03 1.94 2.88 2.07 1.85 0.39 0.12 0.55 1962 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.94 1.01 2.82 2.07 1.96 2.88 2.11 1.94 0.36 0.09 0.48 1963 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.00 2.87 2.00 2.02 2.87 2.00 2.01 0.44 -0.00 0.43 1964 1.01 1.02 1.01 0.91 1.05 2.87 2.16 1.97 2.84 2.14 1.89 0.33 0.13 0.50 1965 1.04 1.05 1.04 0.92 1.07 3.08 1.86 1.72 2.96 1.79 1.60 0.66 0.11 0.85 1966 1.08 1.09 1.08 0.93 1.10 3.10 2.04 1.91 2.87 1.89 1.74 0.52 0.09 0.65 1967 1.12 1.13 1.12 0.89 1.13 3.10 2.13 1.91 2.77 1.90 1.68 0.46 0.13 0.65 1968 1.14 1.15 1.14 0.99 1.13 3.10 1.92 1.90 2.72 1.68 1.68 0.61 0.00 0.62 1969 1.18 1.23 1.21 1.03 1.15 3.10 1.75 1.80 2.56 1.45 1.56 0.77 -0.08 0.64 1970 1.21 1.26 1.24 1.00 1.22 3.10 2.08 2.09 2.50 1.68 1.72 0.49 -0.02 0.46 1971 1.26 1.32 1.29 1.01 1.26 3.80 1.86 1.88 2.95 1.44 1.49 1.04 -0.03 0.97 1972 1.35 1.46 1.41 1.00 1.34 3.80 2.20 2.19 2.69 1.56 1.63 0.73 -0.04 0.65 1973 1.46 1.52 1.49 1.03 1.43 3.80 3.98 4.08 2.55 2.67 2.85 -0.05 -0.06 -0.11 1974 1.80 1.88 1.84 1.03 1.90 3.80 5.71 5.88 2.06 3.10 3.10 -0.33 0.00 -0.33 1975 2.07 2.16 2.12 1.05 2.21 4.50 5.39 5.67 2.12 2.54 2.57 -0.17 -0.01 -0.17 1976 2.54 2.44 2.48 1.07 2.58 4.40 4.76 5.09 1.78 1.92 1.97 -0.08 -0.02 -0.10 1977 3.24 3.11 3.15 1.17 3.13 4.40 5.06 5.85 1.40 1.61 1.87 -0.13 -0.14 -0.25 1978 3.96 3.80 3.85 1.13 3.70 6.00 6.14 6.89 1.56 1.60 1.86 -0.02 -0.14 -0.16 1979 4.65 4.47 4.53 0.96 - 4.66 7.20 8.24 7.94 1.59 1.82 1.70 -0.13 0.07 -0.07 1980 5.77 5.55 5.62 1.11 5.44 7.20 10.06 11.08 1.28 1.79 2.03 -0.28 -0.12 -0.37 1981 6.85 6.58 6.67 1.10 6.77 11.00 13.17 14.50 1.65 1.98 2.14 -0.16 -0.08 -0.23 1982 8.37 8.04 8.15 1.15 8.15 16.40 13.69 15.66 2.01 1.68 1.92 0.20 -0.13 0.05 1983 10.31 9.91 10.04 1.14 9.63 24.66 18.07 20.51 2.46 1.80 2.13 0.36 -0.15 0.15 1984 13.37 12.33 12.66 1.11 12.03 29.40 24.24 26.70 2.32 1.91 2.22 0.21 -0.14 0.05 1985 15.83 14.65 15.03 1.05 14.30 115.11 - 215 - ANNEX C I. Estimation of Price Intervention Effects on Output II. Estimation of Price Intervention Effects on Consumption - 216 - I. Estimation of Price Intervention Effects on Output 1. The estimation of each i agricultural output with no price intervention is based on the following expression: 3 VA. RVA. - RVA Q. = Q *(1 + a .. . 3 ) (1) i t i t .13 jP.RVA. j = 1 where, Qi,t= total output of each i agricultural commodity with price interventions in year t E. supply price elasticity of each i agricultural commodity with respect to the price of commodity j VA.t value addea of each j commodity and year t at market prices P. = market price. of each j commodity and year t A VA. = value added of each j commodity and year t in the absence j ,t of price policies RVA. = VA. / PNA J,t 3,t t RVA. = VA. / PNA j,t J ,t t PNA and PNA = the non-agricultural price index with and without t t price interventions For short run output estimates a Nervlovian adjustment coefficient was usea (see Table C.5) Cross elasticities were included only for competitive crops in the same region. For the southern commodities, the relative price rather than valued added was used, and hence the term VA/P was omitted. 2. The agricultural commodities and supply price elasticities are presented in Table C5. - 217 - II. Estimation of Price Intervention Effects on Consumption 1. The estimation of the each j consumption with no price intervention is based on the following expression: = l * RCP. - RCP. C , 3 , ( j, I (2) RCP. 3,t where, C. consumption of each j in year t .3,t j1 demand price elasticity of each j commodity RCP = CP. /PNA *j,t. J,t t RC:P. = CP. / PNA j,t j It t C. and CP. = consumer prices of each j agricultural commodity and year t with and without price policies PNA and PNA = non-agricultural price indices with and without price t t intervention 2. The demand price elasticities are presented in Table C6. Table C.1: Calculation of Supply Effects of Price Policies . .... .. .. .. . .... . . . ..I. .. .... . . ............................ RVA RVA1 RVA* RVA RVA1 RVA* RVA RVA1 RVA* YEAR .....POTATOES ......MIK .....WINE....... .......... .. .. ... .. ..... .. ... ............................. 1960 0.14 0.14 -0.11 0.74 0.78 0.57 2.83 2.84 2.31 1961 0.07 0.07 -0.10 0.54 0.54 0.36 3.17 3.17 2.73 1962 0.44 0.44 0.29 0.53 0.53 0.37 2.12 ' 2.12 1.88 1963 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.51 0.48 0.35 1.60 1.60 1.61 1964 0.07 0.06 -0.09 0.66 0.63 0.48 1.45 1.45 1.19 1965 0.55 0.54 0.37 0.49 0.48 0.35 1.27 1.27 1.07 1966 0.70 0.69 0.55 0.59 0.57 0.46 1.72 1.72 1.53 1967 0.07 0.07 -0.04 0.94 0.59 0.49 2.24 2.23 1.90 1968 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.84 0.50 0.42 1.89 1.88 1.88 1969 0.37 0.36 0.45 0.76 0.45 0.41 2.36 2.35 2.59 1970 0.11 0.10 0.12 0.68 0.42 0.36 1.81 1.81 1.86 1971 0.26 0.25 0.28 0.77 0.64 0.61 1.96 1.96 2.04 1972 0.42 0.42 0.46 0.68 0.55 0.54 2.03 2.02 2.13 1973 0.43 0.42 0.48 0.53 0.39 0.38' 1.98 1.98 2.13 1974 0.40 0.39 0.39 0.69 0.47 0.41 1.16 1.16 1.16 1975 0.63 0.63 0.65 0.84 0.76 0.68 1.22 1.22 1.24 1976 0.86 0.84 0.87 0.89 0.77 0.70 1.33 1.31 1.35 1977 0.55 0.53 0.68 0.68 0.60 0.57 1.84 1.83 2.17 1978 0.19 0.17 0.25 0.82 0.76 0.75 3.06 3.04 3.61 1979 0.51 0.49 0.44 0.68 0.62 0.56 1.16 1.15 1.06 1980 0.29 0.25 0.33 0.49 0.34 0.30 1.07 1.04 1.22 1981 0.35 0.31 0.37 0.37 0.22 0.17 1.48 1.47 1.61 1982 0.33 0.31 0.40 0.33 0.26 0.21 0.99 0.98 1.15 1983 0.25 0.24 0.35 0.30 0.11 0.06 0.88 0.87 1.08 1984 0.38 0.38 0.51 0.11 0.10 0.05 0.77 0.77 0.93 1985 -0.13 -0.13 -0.10 0.89 0.86 0.91 0.45 0.45 0.52 .. ... . ... . .. . . . .. . . ... . . . . .. .. ............................ (able CA: Calculation of Supply Effects of Price Policies RVA RVAI RVA* RVA RVAI RVA* RVA RVAI RVA* fEAR ....IE..... ... M TO..... ...CORN... 1960 0.73 0.cd 0.20 0.46 0.47 0.37 1.62 0.82 0.55 1961 0.79 0.td 0.34 0.42 0.43 0.35 1.26 1.03 0.81 1962 0.84 2.33 1.95 0.40 0.41 0.36 1.30 1.03 0.87 1963 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.36 0.36 0.37 1.18 0.79 0.80 1964 0.86 0.68 0.37 0.33 0.33 0.27 1.04 0.73 0.55 1965 0.81 0.31 0.09 0.30 0.30 0.25 1.35 0.76 0.60 1966 0.84 0.57 0.39 0.26 0.26 0.23 1.09 0.69 0.58 1967 0.88 0.73 0.48 0.24 0.24 0.20 0.96 0.63 0.49 1968 0.91 0.65 0.65 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.88 0.55 0.55 1969 0.87 0.30 0.43 0.20 0.19 0.22 0.79 0.48 0.56 1970 0.80 0.37 0.41 0.19 0.17 0.18 0.66 0.56 0.58 1971 0.76 0.95 1.02 0.18 0.15 0.16 0.78 0.46 0.49 1972 0.58 0.18 0.22 0.16 0.13 0.14 0.66 0.31 0.34 1973 0.48 0.69 0.77 0.15 0.15 0.17 0.50 0.48 0.53 1974 0.61 1.32 1.32 0.30 0.16 0.16 0.67 0.91 0.91 1975 0.69 0.88 0.89 0.25 0.16 0.17 0.82 0.55 0.56 1976 0.67 0.62 0.64 0.20 0.17 0.17 0.70 0.41 0.42 1977 0.40 0.50 0.66 0.15 0.14 0.18 0.58 0.30 0.38 1978 0.48 0.52 0.70 0.14 0.12 0.14 0.52 0.25 0.33 1979 0.51 0.41 0.35 0.14 0.10 0.09 0.45 0.27 0.24 1980 0.48 0.25 0.35 0.15 0.09 0.11 0.41 0.21 0.27 1981 0.42 0.63 0.72 0.14 0.09 0.10 0.44 0.27 0.31 1982 0.30 0.27 0.39 0.14 0.12 0.15 0.36 0.13 0.18 1983 0.33 0.12 0.25 0.13 0.12 0.15 0.50 0.22 0.30 1984 0.44 0.23 0.37 0.13 0.11 0.13 0.56 0.31 0.41 1985 -0.73 -0.71 -0.72 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.35 0.02 0.05 iable C.2: Calculation of Supply Effects of Price Policies (contd) . . . . . . . .. . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . ........................... YEAR .........Potdtoes....... ........Milk....... .........Uine.......... EPRd EPRi EPRt EPRd EPRi EPRt EPRd EPRi EPRt 1960 -0.48 1./6 0.44 -0.06 0.36 0.27 0.11 0.25 0.38 1961 -0.94 0.46 -0.91 -0.01 0.24 0.23 0.42 0.35 0.91 1962 -0.78 0.15 -0.75 -0.01 0.38 0.37 -0.10 0.14 0.03 1963 -0.86 0.01 -0.85 0.07 0.33 0.43 -0.31 0.01 -0.31 1964 -0.91 0.2?7 -0.88 0.05 0.32 0.39 -0.33 0.18 -0.21 1965 -0.15 0.25 0.06 0.02 0.37 0.40 -0.38 0.17 -0.28 1966 -0.01 0.14 0.13 0.03 0.28 0.32 -0.12 0.10 -0.03 1967 -0.85 0.15 -6.83 0.58 0.33 1.10 -0.07 0.10 0.02 1968 -0.86 -0.03 -0.86 0.69 0.24 1.09 -0.33 -0.02 -0.34 1969 -0.50 -0.15 -0.58 0.69 0.22 1.07 -0.11 -0.13 -0.23 I 1970 -0.87 0.06 -0.87 0.63 0.20 0.95 -0.44 -0.05 -0.47 N) 1971 -0.73 -0.07 -0.75 0.20 0.10 0.32 -0.38 -0.07 -0.42 C) 1972 0.56 -0.13 0.35 0.23 0.12 0.38 -0.38 -0.10 -0.44 I 1973 -0.32 0.10 -0.39 0.36 0.11 0.51 -0.37 -0.10 -0.43 1974 -0.04 0.08 0.04 0.47 0.04 0.52 -0.62 0.07 -0.59 1975 -0.57 0.08 -0.53 0.11 -0.00 0.11 -0.41 0.09 -0.36 1976 -0.27 0.12 -0.18 0.16 -0.00 0.15 -0.32 0.12 -0.24 1977 -0.35 -0.04 -0.38 0.13 -0.06 0.06 -0.26 -0.04 -0.29 1978 -0.80 -0.11 -0.82 0.09 -0.04 0.04 0.42 -0.11 0.26 1979 -0.55 0.08 -0.52 0.10 0.10 0.21 -0.52 0.08 -0.48 1980 0.07 0.10 -0.03 0.44 0.04 0.50 -0.56 -0.09 -0.60 1981 -0.65 0.03 -0.64 0.72. 0.03 0.77 0.16 0.03 0.20 1982 0.27 -0.03 0.24 0.29 -0.01 0.27 -0.27 -0.02 -0.29 1983 -0.46 -0.14 -0.54 1.62 0.29 2.39 0.01 -0.13 -0.12 1984 -0.27 0.16 -0.39 0.06 0.60 0.70 -0.15 -0.14 -0.27 1985 0.00 0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.09 -0.09 0.00 -0.00 0.00 Table C.1: Calculation of Supply Effects of Price Policies ..................................................................... RVA RVA1 RVA* RVA RVA1 RVA* RVA RVAI RVA* YEAR ......WHEAT...... .......BEEF....... .......SHEEP...... 1960 1.64 0.41 0.08 -1.23 -7.30 -10.98 3.39 0.74 -1.27 1961 1.49 0.39 0.15 -1.51 -8.97 -10.97 3.45 *2.59 -2.73 1962 1.46 0.46 0.29 *2.19 -9.41 -11.76 1.48 -3.05 -5.29 1963 1.35 0.25 0.26 -1.32 -9.95 -11.66 10.24 1.70 -2.11 1964 1.23 0.37 0.16 -0.67 -5.19 -8.12 20.10 10.88 10.03 1965 1.27 0.07 -0.07 -1.50 -4.93 -7.42 12.48 6.23 5.03 1966 1.13 0.17 0.06 0.93 -4.70 -6.89 16.51 6.33 4.91 1967 1.05 0.25 0.10 2.43 -4.90 -7.27 15.97 5.60 4.70 1968 0.94 0.05 0.05 1.78 -6.60 -7.95 12.34 1.48 -1.40 1969 0.86 -0.04 0.02 1.85 -5.50 -6.61 19.51 6.52 1.55 1970 0.76 0.15 0.17 2.37 -2.71 -3.62 16.82 7.03 4.36 1971 0.82 0.05 0.07 4. 6 -0.26 -0.96 25.40 13.68 10.86 1972 0.69 0.16 0.20 4.57 0.58 -0.10 26.57 16.35 13.43 1973 0.57 0.67 0.74 7.81 0.86 0.58 29.33 18.14 15.41 1974 0.56 0.84 0.84 7.36 0.52 0.15 31.02 19.15 18.37 1975 0.47 0.57 0.59 5.91 -3.05 -3.31 31.45 19.45 18.58 1976 0.42 0.30 0.31 7.65 -2.58 -2.70 30.38 16.93 16.23 1977 0.32 0.14 0.22 8.01 -1.85 -1.68 25.75 15.48 13.25 1978 0.35 0.11 0.20 6.75 -1.82 -1.88 20.20 11.87 9.37 1979 0.48 0.17 0.13 8.08 -0.50 -1.26 21.81 13.09 12.59 1980 0.42 0.10 0.16 8.02 -0.45 -0.47 19.38 11.66 9.47 1981 0.33 0.12 0.16 4.74 -1.34 -1.32 9.08 5.41 4.43 1982 0.22 -0.02 0.04 2.80 -0.86 -0.57 7.70 5.20 3.92 1983 0.24 -0.05 0.02 3.25 -3.25 -3.38 5.47 0.47 -2.30 1984 0.33 0.02 0.10 2.32 -1.22 -1.25 4.00 3.16 0.46 1985 0.32 -0.00 0.04 -4.95 4.73 5.14 -1.59 12.23 11.35 .................................................................... Table C.2: Calculation of Supply Effects of Price Policies (contd) YEAR ...........Rice......... .......Tomatoes....... .........Corn........ EPRd EPRi EPRt EPRd EPRi EPRt EPRd EPRi EPRt .....................a................................. 1960 0.09 2.30 2.60 -0.01. 0.27 0.26 0.98 0.49 1.95 1961 0.17 1.00 1.34 -0.01 0.20 0.19 0.23 0.27 0.57 1962 -0.64 0.19 -0.57 -0.00 0.14 0.14 0.26 0.18 0.49 1963 -0.00 -0.02 -0.02 0.00 -0.01 -0.00 0.49 -0.01 0.47 1964 0.28 0.84 1.35 0.00 0.23 0.23 0.42 0.33 0.89 1965 1.61 2.40 7.86 0.00 0.20 0.20 0.77 0.26 1.24 1966 0.49 0.45 1.17 0.00 0.15 0.15 0.57 0.19 0.87 1967 0.21 0.53 0.86 0.00 0.23 0.23 0.53 0.29 0.98 1968 0.40 0.00 0.40 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.61 0.00 0.61 1969 1.87 -0.29 1.04 0.04 -0.12 -0.08 0.63 -0.14 0.39 1970 1.15 -0.08 0.97 0.09 -0.04 0.05 0.17 -0.04 0.13 N 1971 -0.20 -0.07 -0.25 0.18 -0.06 0.11 0.71 -0.06 0.60 1972 2.23 -0.19 1.61 0.20 -0.07 0.12 1.11 -0.08 0.94 1973 -0.29 -0.11 -0.37 0.01 -0.09 -0.08 0.03 -0.09 -0.06 1974 -0.54 0.00 -0.54 0.86 0.00 0.86 -0.26 0.00 -0.26 1975 -0.21 -0.02 -0.22 0.55 -0.02 0.53 0.50 -0.02 0.47 1976 0.09 -0.04 0.05 0.19 -0.03 0.15 0.71 -0.04 0.64 1977 -0.20 -0.25 -0.40 0.03 -0.18 -0.16 0.96 -0.22 0.54 1978 -0.09 -0.25 -0.32 0.18 -0.20 -0.05 1.09 -0.24 0.59 1979 0.24 0.16 0.44 0.42 0.11 0.57 0.67 0.13 0.89 1980 0.87 -0.28 0.35 0.77 -0.17 0.47 0.92 -0.21 0.53 1981 -0.33 -0.13 -0.42 0.51 -0.12 0.34 0.65 -0.13 0.43 1982 0.11 -0.30 -0.22 0.16 -0.17 -0.04 1.70 -0.27 0.96 1983 1.69 -0.51 0.32 0.10 -0.21 -0.13 1.30 -0.28 0.67 1984 0.91 -0.38 0.19 0.23 -0.20 -0.02 0.79 -0.22 0.39 1985 -0.30 -0.17 -0.42 -3.22 -0.01 -3.19 1.58 -0.18 1.11 Table C.2: Calculation of Supply Effects of Price Policies (contd) nominal rates used for calculation of output effect for these three comodities YEAR ..........HIEAT........ .......EEf .....SHEEP....... NPRd NPRi NPRt NPRd NPRi NPRt NPRd MPRI NPRt 1960 0.48 0.12 0.72 0.36 0.10 0.54 0.07 -0.07 0.03 1961 0.46 0.22 0.79 0.47 0.17 0.73 0.14 -0.06 0.08 1962 0.43 0.08 0.58 .0.48 0.06 0.61 0.11 -0.05 0.08 1963 0.51 0.01 0.52 0.59 0.01 0.60 0.16 0.00 0.15 1964 0.40 0.09 0.58 0.23 0.08 0.37 0.15. -0.07 0.11 1965 0.74 0.09 0.95 0.21 0.07 0.34, - 0.12 -0.06 0.09 1966 0.60 0.05 0.72 0.37 0.04 0.46 0.23 -0.05 0.19 1967 0.53 0.03 0.65 0.58 0.02 0.69 0.27 -0.08 0.23 1968 0.70 -0.02 0.67 0.79 -0.02 0.77 0.30 0.00 0.32 1969 0.86 -0.10 0.66 0.73 -0.08 0.56 0.35 0.09 0.45 1970 0.57 -0.04 0.50 0.47 -0.04 0.41 0.31 0.02 0.34 1 1971 0.91 -0.06 0.79 0.43 *0.05 0.35 0.34 0.04 0.39 1972 0.61 -0.09 0.47 0.44 -0.08 0.32 0.31 0.05 0.37 1973 -0.11 -0.08 -0.19 0.71 -0.07 0.57 0.32 0.06 0.38 1 1974 -0.25 0.08 -0.21 0.54 0.07 0.63 0.26 -0.01 0.24 1975 -0.08 0.10 -0.01 1.24 0.09 1.39 0.32 -0.01 0.28 1976 0.04 0.13 0.15 1.55 0.11 1.78 0.36 -0.01 0.32 1977 0.20 0.03 0.15 1.65 0.04 1.56 0.31 0.09 0.33 1978 0.24 -0.03 0.11 1.43 -0.02 1.22 0.28 0.10 0.31 1979 0.36 0.04 0.46 1.14 0.04 1.28 0.29 -0.04 0.27 1980 0.28 -0.03 0.18 0.98 -0.02 0.84 0.18 0.07 0.19 1981 0.12 0.07 0.14 0.69 0.06 0.72 0.05 0.04 0.05 1982 0.31 0.05 0.28 0.48 0.05 0.45 0.09 0.07 0.09 1983 0.32 -0.03 0.18 0.82 -0.02 0.65 0.16 0.09 0.17 1984 0.44 -0.06 0.27 0.44 -0.05 0.28 -0.40 0.88 0.06 1985 Table C.3: Calculation of Supply Effects of Price Policies (contd) NORTH Proportional change in output, direct and indirect effect proportional change in output.......direct effect only YEAR ......short run....... .....cumulative...... ......short run....... .....cumulative...... DOF DOX DOD DQF DQX DOD DQF DOX DOD DQF DQX DOD 1960 -0.10 0.02 0.13 -0.14 0.03 0.19 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 1961 -0.05 0.01 0.07 -0.08 0.03 0.10 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 1962 0.02 -0.01 -0.02 0.02 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 1963 -0.00 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.04 -0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 1964 -0.07 0.02 0.09 -0.10 0.03 0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 1965 0.03 -0.02 -0.02 0.02 -0.02 -0.02 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 1966 0.02 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 1967 -0.12 0.07 0.11 -0.18 0.14 0.11 -0.01 0.03 -0.03 -0.02 0.08 -0.06 1968 -0.01 0.05 -0.05 -0.04 0.13 -0.11 -0.01 0.03 -0.03 -0.02 0.09 -0.08 1969 -0.02 0.06 -0.04 -0.04 0.14 -0.11 -0.01 0.04 -0.03 -0.03 0.09 -0.07 1970 -0.02 0.05 -0.04 -0.04 0.12 -0.09 -0.01 0.03 -0.03 -0.02 0.08 -0.07 1971 -0.01 0.02 -0.02 -0.01 0.05 -0.04 -0.00 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.03 -0.03 1972 -0.01 0.03 -0.02 -0.02 0.05 -0.04 -0.00 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.04 -0.03 1973 -0.02 0.04 -0.02 -0.03 0.08 -0.06 -0.01 0.02 -0.02 -0.02 0.05 -0.04 1974 -0.01 0.04 -0.04 -0.03 0.11 -0.09 -0.01 0.03 -0.03 -0.02 0.08 -0.06 1975 -0.01 0.02 -0.01 -0.01 0.04 -0.03 -0.00 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.02 -0.01 1976 -0.01 0.02 -0.02 -0.01 0.06 -0.05 0.00 0.01 -0.01 -0.00 0.02 -0.02 1977 -0.02 0.04 -0.02 -0.02 0.07 -0.06 0.00 0.01 -0.01 -0.00 0.02 -0.02 1978 -0.01 0.03 -0.03 -0.00 0.05 -0.07 0.02 -0.00 -0.03 0.02 0.00 -0.04 1979 0.01 -0.01 -0.02 0.01 0.01 -0.02 0.01 0.00 -n.01 0.00 0.01 -0.02 1980 -0.01 0.05 -0.05 -0.03 0.12 -0.11 0.01 0.02 -0.04 -0.00 0.05 -0.07 1981 -0.02 0.07 -0.06 -0.04 0.17 -0.14 0.00 0.03 -0.04 -0.01 0.08 -0.08 1982 -0.02 0.05 -0.03 -0.02 0.10 -0.08 0.00 0.01 -0.02 -0.00 0.03 -0.03 1983 -0.06 0.18 -0.13 -0.13 0.41 -0.32 -0.01 0.05 -0.05 -0.04 0.14 -0.11 1984 -0.02 0.04 -0.02 -0.02 0.08 -0.06 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 1985 -0.03 0.02 0.02 -0.03 0.03 0.01 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.01 -0.01 Table C.3: Calculation of Supply Effects of Price Policies (contd) CENTER Proportional change in output, direct and indirect effect proportional change in output.......direct effect only YEAR ......short run....... .....cumulative...... ......short run....... .....cumulative...... DQF DOX DOD DQF DQX DOD DOF DQX DOD DQF DOX DOD 1960 -0.05 -0.10 0.14 -0.02 -0.16 0.16 -0.07 -0.09 0.10 -0.08 -0.12 0.12 1961 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.01 -0.01 -0.03 0.02 -0.00 -0.04 0.02 1962 -0.08 0.05 0.05 -0.11 0.07 0.07 -0.05 -0.00 0.04 -0.08 0.00 0.05 1963 -0.03 -0.04 0.05 -0.04 -0.05 0.06 -0.03 -0.04 0.05 -0.04 -0.05 0.06 1964 0.00 -0.00 0.04 0.04 -0.03 0.04 -0.01 -0.04 0.03 -0.01 -0.06 0.04 1965 0.38 -0.32 -0.05 0.68 -0.53 -0.13 0.04 -0.14 0.05 0.09 -0.20 0.05 1966 0.00 -0.05 0.05 0.03 -0.08 0.06 -0.01 -0.07 0.05 0.00 -0.10 0.05 1967 -0.03 -0.01 0.07 -0.01 -0.03 0.07 -0.02 -0.06 0.05 -0.02 -0.08 0.06 1968 -0.01 -0.07 0.05 -0.00 -0.10 0.06 -0.01 -0.07 0.05 -0.00 -0.10 0.06 1969 0.07 -0.14 0.02 0.12 -0.19 0.01 0.11 -0.14 0.01 0.20 -0.21 -0.01 1970 0.07 -0.04 -0.02 0.12 -0.07 -0.04 0.08 -0.03 -0.02 0.14 -0.06 -0.04 1971 -0.08 0.01 0.07 -0.11 0.02 0.09 -0.09 0.04 0.08 -0.12 0.05 0.10 1972 0.05 -0.11 0.05 0.12 -0.18 0.05 0.08 -0.12 0.05 0.18 -0.20 0.04 1973 -0.02 -0.02 0.01 -0.04 -0.02 0.02 -0.03 0.02 0.01 -0.05 0.03 * 0.02 1974 -0.12 0.65 -0.08 -0.17 0.82 -0.09 -0.12 0.64 -0.08 -0.17 0.82 -0.09 1975 -0.12 0.30 0.03 -0.16 0.38 0.04 -0.12 0.31 0.03 -0.16 0.40 0.04 1976 -0.07 0.02 0.07 -0.09 0.02 0.09 -0.08 0.03 0.07 -0.09 0.04 0.09 1977 -0.06 -0.14 0.09 -0.09 -0.16 0.11 -0.10 -0.08 0.12 -0.14 -0.10 0.15 1978 -0.07 -0.08 0.08 -0.10 -0.09 0.11 -0.12 -0.00 0.12 -0.15 -0.00 0.15 1979 -0.09 0.23 0.05 -0.09 0.28 0.05 -0.07 0.17 0.04 -0.08 0.21 0.05 1980 -0.06 0.22 0.02 -0.06 0.27 0.02 -0.08 0.34 0.02 -0.06 0.41 0.02 1981 -0.10 0.18 0.04 -0.14 0.24 0.05 -0.13 0.26 0.05 -0.17 0.33 0.06 1982 -0.08 -0.10 0.10 -0.10 -0.12 0.13 -0.13 -0.06 0.15 -0.16 -0.08 0.19 1983 -0.02 -0.15 0.07 -0.02 -0.19 0.09 -0.00 -0.13 0.10 0.04 -0.20 0.10 1984 -0.02 -0.05 0.04 -0.01 -0.07 0.05 -0.02 0.01 0.05 0.00 -0.00 0.05 1985 0.17 -1.84 0.32 0.20 -2.29 0.40 0.14 -1.90 0.37 0.17 -2.37 0.46 .--.-..-....---... ...---... ..... .... ..... .... ..... .... ..... .... ..... .... ..... .... ..... .... ..... .... ..... .... Table C.3: Calculation of Supply Effects of Price Policies (contd) SOUTH Proportional change in output, direct and indirect effect proportional change in output.......direct effect only YEAR ......short run....... .....cumulative...... ......short run....... .....cumutative...... DOF DOX DOD DOF DQX DOD DOF DOX DOD DQF DOX DOD 1960 0.42 0.00 -0.03 0.42 0.21 *0.05 0.28 -0.00 *0.02 0.28 0.14 -0.02 1961 0.35 0.04 -0.03 0.32 0.29 -0.03 0.25 0.03 -0.01 0.22 0.22 -0.00 1962 0.30 0.06 -0.02 0.26 0.30 -0.03 0.23 0.05 -0.01 0.19 0.25 -0.01 1963 0.26 0.07 -0.01 0.20 0.30 -0.01 0.27 0.06 -0.01 0.21 0.30 -0.01 1964 0.36 -0.02 -0.02 0.36 0.11 -0.01 0.24 -0.03 -0.00 0.25 0.05 0.01 1965 0.62 -0.12 -0.03 0.71 -0.03 -0.04 0.50 -0.12 -0.02 0.57 -0.07 -0.01 1966 0.45 -0.02 -0.02 0.45 0.14 -0.00 0.36 -0.03 -0.00 0.37 0.09 0.02 1967 0.40 0.07 -0.02 0.33 0.37 -0.01 0.28 0.05 -0.00 0.22 0.28 0.03 1968 0.36 0.09 -0.01 0.28 0.40 0.02 0.36 0.07 -0.01 0.28 0.40 0.02 1969 0.40 0.02 0.01 0.36 0.23 0.06 0.49 0.01 -0.01 0.45 0.29 0.03 1970 0.30 0.01 0.01 0.27 0.16 0.05 0.32 0.00 0.01 0.29 0.17 0.04 e' 1971 0.53 -0.08 0.00 0.57 0.02 0.05 0.57 -0.09 -0.00 0.61 0.04 0.03 1972 0.32 -0.01 0.01 0.30 0.11 0.05 0.36 -0.02 0.00 0.34 0.14 0.04 1973 -0.23 0.24 .0.04 -0.43 0.50 0.09 -0.20 0.24 0.03 -0.41 0.57 0.07 1974 -0.28 0.24 0.03 -0.47 0.49 0.06 -0.28 0.22 0.03 -0.47 0.49 0.06 1975 -0.28 0.41 0.02 -0.61 0.97 0.04 -0.27 0.41 0.02 -0.61 0.99 0.04 1976 -0.25 0.48 0.01 -0.63 1.16 0.03 -0.24 0.47 0.01 -0.62 1.20 0.03 1977 -0.21 0.42 0.02 -0.54 1.01 0.04 -0.14 0.47 -0.00 -0.51 1.23 0.00 1978 -0.15 0.35 0.01 -0.43 0.85 0.04 -0.07 0.39 -0.00 -0.39 1.05 0.00 1979 0.11 0.30 -0.01 -0.13 0.86 -0.00 0.07 0.27 -0.00 -0.16 0.78 0.01 1980 -0.04 0.21 0.00 -0.21 0.55 0.02 0.04 0.24 -0.01 -0.16 0.68 -0.01 1981 -0.07 0.17 -0.01 -0.21 0.44 -0.02 -0.03 0.19 -0.01 -0.18 0.51 -0.03 1982 0.05 0.06 -0.00 -0.00 0.19 0.00 0.14 0.07 -0.01 0.08 0.28 -0.01 1983 -0.02 0.15 0.01 -0.14 0.40 0.02 0.09 0.18 -0.01 -0.06 0.55 -0.01 1984 0.13 0.02 -0.01 0.11 0.13 -0.01 0.24 0.03 -0.02 0.22 0.22 -0.03 1985 0.47 -0.41 -0.11 0.83 -0.81 -0.27 0.57 -0.40 -0.12 0.96 -0.85 -0.28 Table C4: Calculation of Consumption Effects ......................................................................................... potatoes milk wine YEAR C RCP RCPU* C* C RCP RCPU* C* C RCP RCPU* C* ...................................................................................... ... 1960 906.39 1.22 1.22 . 906.41 329.10 2.75 2.64 332.12 11091 3.00 2.36 11399.30 1961 887.75 1.12 1.72 722.56 355.90 2.65 2.48 360.91 7069 3.41 2.00 7449.72 1962 716.18 1.43 2.66 499.00 345.10 2.65 2.58 347.27 14819 2.59 2.53 14866.79 1963 1029.42 1.15 1.91 790.59 351.10 2.74 2.73 351.41 12495 2.22 2.92 11984.09 1964 1000.51 1.09 1.70 802.98 320.00 3.05 2.95 322.35 13044 2.20 2.64 12701.98 1965 771.02 1.63 1.63 771.95 365.70 2.96 2.87 368.27 14197 2.10 2.67 13690.42 1966 849.11 1.86 1.80 858.83 356.80 3.05 3.00 358.22 8307 2.76 2.85 8269.57 1967 1159.31 1.01 1.58 929.61 348.20 3.66 3.62 349.07 9273 3.58 3.66 9245.06 1968 942.68 1.09 2.29 576.33 404.30 3.59 3.63 403.38 10911 3.31 4.80 10269.07 1969 999.68 1.41 2.26 789.53 444.10 3.39 3.57 438.95 7581 4.10 5.34 7282.22 1970 1069.43 1.01 2.26 603.88 458.10 3.31 3.37 456.09 10629 3.53 6.33 9533.28 1971 971.93 1.25 2.70 575.97 432.70 3.18 3.58 420.51 8321 4.05 6.81 7581.78 N 1972 1027.99 1.54 1.38 1063.73 446.50 2.91 3.43 428.92 7550 4.39 7.89 6768.24 1973 953.33 1.62 2.29 816.72 462.10 2.75 3.21 445.15 10063 4.85 8.39 9107.70 1974 1026.17 1.62 1.55 1041.43 483.70 3.26 3.80 466.18 12913 2.99 6.41 10996.13 1975 875.98 2.07 3.36 684.12 514.60 2.83 4.03 466.43 8137 3.01 4.16 7734.42 1976 828.45 2.56 2.87 793.39 528.20 2.42 4.33 436.65 8446 3.36 4.11 8201.65 1977 1095.30 1.99 2.64 970.48 559.90 2.22 3.85 469.63 5895 4.80 6.18 5673.61 1978 971.45 1.15 3.34 324.02 568.90 2.21 4.46 441.02 5678 7.96 6.22 5839.21 1979 874.96 2.05 3.57 648.19 656.20 2.21 3.97 541.03 13199 3.48 6.32 11799.62 1980 2044.60 1.44 1.52 2005.24 734.50 1.96 3.62 597.27 9200 3.25 7.35 7687.90 1981 718.27 1.70 3.29 483.68 798.60 2.25 3.23 721.91 8819 4.51 3.68 9029.35 1982 1092.60 1.77 1.55 1141.60 792.60 2.15 3.27 701.48 10031 3.28 4.17 9676.26 1983 789.04 1.69 2.47 663.45 793.90 2.32 3.62 696.25 8249 3.04 3.29 8161.53 1984 952.77 2.11 2.72 857.22 779.50 2.85 3.68 729.32 8393 2.84 3.69 8068.57 Table C4: Calculation of Consumption Effects rice tomatoes corn YEAR C RCP RCPU* C* C RCP . RCPW* C* C RCP RCPU* C* .......................................................................................... 1960 147.39 2.76 2.31 160.36 0.00 0.57 0.49 0.00 447.79 2.38 1.49 497.99 1961 188.94 2.77 2.06 215.13 0.00 0.55 0.42 0.00 635.19 2.11 1.71 671.29 1962 166.72 2.79 3.76 135.47 0.00 0.55 0.50 0.00 591.42 2.18 1.79 623.69 1963 191.43 2.80 2.84 190.01 0.00 0.54 0.54 0.00 572.14 2.15 1.81 599.41 1964 178.31 2.93 2.47 193.47 0.00 0.53 0.47 0.00 648.75 2.10 1.60 695.37 1965 162.36 2.89 2.12 185.75 0.00 0.52 0.46 0.00 508.60 2.53 1.68 559.50 1966 196.45 2.98 2.53 212.60 0.00 0.50 0.46 0.00 824.62 2.30 1.70 889.67 1967 166.97 2.98 2.73 174.66 0.00 0.48 0.46 0.00 753.44 2.17 1.55 817.87 1968 191.44 3.11 2.95 196.84 0.00 0.47 0.49 0.00 935.92 2.16 1.73 991.94 1969 216.87 3.00 2.63 231.41 0.00 0.45 0.52 0.00 919.84 2.01 1.73 957.69 1970 199.63 2.99 2.49 217.63 0.00 0.46 0.46 0.00 874.92 1.89 1.80 887.23 1971 159.39 2.94 3.66 138.10 0.00 0.47 0.45 0.00 1001.37 2.15 1.66 1069.25 1972 190.60 2.57 2.14 207.78 0.00 0.43 0.45 0.00 1266.89 1.96 1.38 1380.60 1973 165.28 2.43 3.31 132.75 0.00 0.46 0.52 0.00 1266.23 1.76 1.87 1241.54 1974 138.09 2.73 4.01 103.17 0.00 0.78 0.44 0.00 1456.06 2.01 2.71 1304.17 1975 181.14 2.91 2.86 182.83 0.00 0.67 0.41 0.00 1644.47 1.75 1.96 1582.36 1976 190.07 2.76 2.35 205.22 0.00 0.55 0.42 0.00 1559.17 1.49 1.69 1498.69 1977 204.10 2.34 2.58 192.68 0.00 0.47 0.45 0.00 1628.67 1.33 1.66 1508.50 1978 186.15 2.59 3.03 169.25 0.00 0.45 0.45 0.00 2106.35 1.48 1.59 2059.56 1979 272.13 2.82 2.45 291.02 0.00 0.49 0.37 0.00 2448.87 1.48 1.40 2486.78 1980 216.15 2.71 2.50 225.07 0.00 0.53 0.39 0.00 3009.23 1.25 1.61 2747.52 1981 226.40 2.74 3.26 203.00 0.00 0.50 0.37 0.00 2905.63 1.42 1.79 2679.21 1982 290.74 2.70 2.56 298.69 0.00 0.55 0.48 0.00 2741.17 1.41 1.52 2677.59 1983 185.75 2.88 2.58 196.19 0.00 0.54 0.56 0.00 2628.20 1.60 1.98 2443.04 1984 266.61 3.33 3.09 276.97 0.00 . 0.54 0.52 0.00 2394.14 2.19 2.18 2399.14 Table C4: Calculation of Consumption Effects .......................................................................................... wheat beef sheep YEAR C RCP RCPW* C* C RCP RCPW* C* C RCP RCPU* C* .......................................................................................... 1960 502.02 2.98 1.84 566.67 40.52 21.56 13.87 56.42 14.36 42.55 40.95 14.74 1961 586.93 2.88 1.85 657.19 44.34 20.88. 11.39 66.50 15.67 41.69 36.54 17.03 1962 791.10 2.88 1.94 877.59 50.88 20.87 12.86 72.36 16.73 40.33 37.03 17.68 1963 677.58 2.87 2.01 746.04 47.80 22.19 13.80 67.68 15.86 49.65 42.65 17.43 1964 635.97 2.84 1.89 707.76 48.44 24.23 17.66 62.89 14.81 62.38 56.15 15.84 1965 810.12 2.96 1.60 935.24 63.02 23.29 17.34 80.72 14.73. 55.04 50.49 15.58 1966 622.57 2.87 1.74 705.16 62.13 25.56 17.64 83.32 13.84 60.55 51.07 15.36 1967 830.98 2.77 1.68 940.79 51.37 26.48 16.26 73.17 14.89 59.36 50.05 16.53 1968 874.61 2.72 1.68 986.88 60.32 26.01 14.95 88.56 19.35 55.57 42.88 22.44 1969 705.70 2.56 1.56 798.28 81.21 24.90 16.51 111.31 18.80 65.26 46.70 22.54 1970 823.44 2.50 1.72 910.39 90.26 25.43 18.35 117.92 19.23 62.72 47.73 22.45 1971 866.91 2.95 1.49 1010.88 77.57 28.44 21.49 98.41 16.34 79.57 58.80 19.32 1972 679.57 2.69 1.63 770.03 75.39 28.03 22.30 92.34 17.11 83.06 63.57 19.92 1973 610.87 2.55 2.85 586.62 83.00 35.97 23.50 114.64 20.61 96.73 71.76 24.34 1974 791.49 2.06 3.10 657.70 86.85 33.58 19.73 126.26 21.82 97.18 75.20 25.27 1975 825.81 2.12 2.57 766.98 97.51 33.32 13.08 162.67 14.32 102.59 75.17 16.99 1976 872.11 1.78 1.97 840.24 80.28 34.39 11.64 138.70 18.85 98.13 69.78 22.67 1977 542.40 1.40 1.87 480.56 79.80 35.95 13.13 135.53 18.44 92.46 65.21 22.24 1978 858.39 1.56 1.86 801.91 91.59 33.99 14.83 148.38 34.04 80.35 59.26 40.30 1979 758.99 1.59 1.70 740.94 95.10 40.20 17.59 153.93 38.53 90.83 71.34 44.31 1980 889.90 1.28 2.03 713.55 99.00 38.71 20.52 150.18 38.26 83.51 68.16 43.18 1981 1163.97 1.65 2.14 1046.74 114.86 32.40 17.80 171.78 47.56 60.16 54.34 50.78 1982 1005.94 2.01 1.92 1021.21 120.36 29.42 19.00 167.24 44.55 62.37 53.69 48.89 1983 839.71 2.46 2.13 877.45 104.06 35.87 20.99 151.56 46.52 61.10 50.14 52.36 1984 1166.54 2.32 2.22 1184.04 93.87 34.42 26.47 117.73 46.51 59.81 55.57 48.81 fable C5: Elasticity Values used in Output Calculations Conmnodity adjustment own price cross price w.r.t cross price w.r.t coefficient elasticity elasticity price of elasticity price of potatoes 0.8 0.37 -0.10 milk -0.27 wine miilk 0.4 0.30 -0.15 wine -0.15 potatoes wine 0.6 0.64 -0.42 potatoes -0.22 milk .ice 0.6 0.32 -0.16 tomatoes -0.16 corn tomatoes 0.8 1.00 -0.50 corn -0.50 rice corn 0.8 0.22 -0.11 rice -0.11 tomatoes wheat 0.8 0.90 -0.40 beef -0.10 sheep beef 0.4 1.62 -0.10 sheep -0.30 wheat sheep 0.4 0.11 -0.05 wheat -0.05 beef O Source: F.Urito Soares (op.clt) and authors estimation. Table C6: Demand Elasticities used in Calculation of Consuuption effects Potatoes -0.35 Milk -0.22 wine -0.13 Rice -0.54 Tomatoes na Corn -0.30 Wheat -0.34 Beef -1.10 Sheep -0.70 Source: F.Brito Soares (op.cit) - 232 - ANNEX D Estimation of Effect of Price Intervention on Foreign Exchange Earnings - 233 - Estimation of Effect of Price Intervention on Foreign Exchange Earnings 1. The estimation of the foreign exchange earnings obtained .from the price inteventions is based on the following expressions: FE (C - Q*) -(C. -Q ) x PW. /E (2) J,t j t jt J,t j,t J,t t where, Q and Q output of each j agricultural commodity with and J,t j,t without price policies in year t * C. and C. = consumption of each j agricultural commodity with 3,t 3,t. and without price intervention in year t. = world price of each j agricultural commodity and ,t t year E market exchange rate of each year t The estimation of Q* was based on expression (1) of Annex C. The estimation of C . was based on expression (2) of Annex C. Table D.1: Calculation of Foreign Exchange Effects Year Potato Milk Wine 0 P PW* 0* Q P PW* Q* Q P Pu* Q* 1960 1041.30 1.15 1.03 1,041 329.10 2.00 2.00 330 11091 2.84 2.55 11,071 1961 1055.60 1.10 1.05 1,055 355.90 1.91 1.91 356 7069 3.34 3.18 7,068 1962 893.50 1.40 1.32 893 345.10 1.97 1.97 345 14819 2.54 2.40 14,823 1963 1144.80 1.15 1.16 1,142 351.10 2.07 2.07 351 12495 2.22 2.24 12,552 1964 1143.40 1.10 1.00 1,140 320.00 2.33 2.33 320 13044 2.22 2.02 13,108 1965 888.00 1.70 1.57 887 365.70 2.26 2.26 366 14197 2.18 2.01 14,227 1966 923.30 2.01 1.88 922 356.80 2.50 2.50 357 8307 2.98 2.78 8,326 1967 1295.70 1.13 1.00 1,305 348.20 3.10 2.60 338 9273 4.01 3.56 9,531 1968 1083.10 1.24 1.23 1,091 404.30 3.10 2.60 391 10911 3.77 3.73 11,284 1969 1126.40 1.71 1.77 1,137 444.10 3.10 2.60 429 7581 4.96 5.12 7,824 1970 1220.00 1.25 1.26 1,230 458.10 3.10 2.60 444 10629 4.38 4.40 10,941 1971 1123.90 1.61 1.63 1,125 432.70 3.50 3.20 428 8321 5.22 5.28 8,426 1972 1138.90 2.17 2.16 1,142 446.50 3.60 3.20 441 7550 6.20 6.18 7,648 1973 1086.20 2.42 2.49 1,092 462.10 3.60 3.20 453 10063 7.23 7.44 10,245 1974 1114.50 2.98 3.07 ' 1,121 483.70 4.90 4.40 470 12913 5.51 5.67 13,275 1975 1012.40 4.38 4.61 1,015 514.60 6.74 6.44 511 8137 6.39 6.73 8,180 1976 918.10 6.34 6.79 917 528.20 7.84 7.54 524 8446 8.32 8.91 8,553 1977 1200.60 6.28 7.32 1,198 559.90 8.95 8.65 557 5895 15.12 17.62 5,962 1978 1127.80 4.43 5.01 1,108 568.90 12.51 12.21 570 5678 30.63 34.65 5,829 1979 1020.60 9.28 8.91 1,016 656.20 14.01 13.71 655 13199 15.76 15.13 13,344 1980 1117.90 8.10 8.97 1,107 734.50 14.51 13.71 723 9200 18.25 20.22 9,558 1981 829.20 11.34 12.53 827 798.60 16.47 15.27 777 8819 30.07 33.23 9,201 1982 982.80 14.46 16.66 979 792.60 20.35 19.15 786 10031 26.70 30.75 10,196 1983 905.30 17.01 19.46 917 793.90 28.10 20.50 753 8249 30.49 34.88 8,674 1984 1038.00 26.76 29.67 1,038 779.50 30.02 29.02 779 8393 34.04 37.74 8,399 Table 0.1: Ca(culation of Foreign Exchange Effects ........................................................................................ Year .........RICE . . TOMATO........ .........CORN......... o p Pu* 0 p PU* p PW* a* ................................................................................. 1960 151.20 2.61 2.31 151 55.00 0.54 0.48 65 466.40 2.25 1.47 402 1961 177.40 2.72 2.51 177 75.60 0.54 0.51 75 632.00 2.07 1.79 623 1962 173.50 2.74 3.89 174 147.80 0.54 0.51 135 598.90 2.14 1.80 561 1963 166.30 2.80 2.91 166 187.50 0.54 0.54 198 523.40 2.15 1.82 495 1964 181.40 2.96 2.58 181 263.00 0.54 0.49 270 596.50 2.12 1.67 573 1965 138.80 3.01 2.29 139 413.00 0.54 0.50 880 458.60 2.63 1.81 526 1966 154.00 3.22 2.74 154 515.00 0.54 0.50 563 564.70 2.49 1.87 534 1967 146.00 3.34 2.84 146 798.80 0.54 0.48 823 576.80 2.43 1.76 537 1968 149.00 3.55 3.22 149 866.80 0.54 0.53 960 547.90 2.46 1.95 517 1969 175.80 3.63 2.80 176 826.60 0.55 0.56 1,024 552.60 2.43 1.99 549 1970 194.70 3.71 2.91 195 733.60 0.57 0.54 786 581.40 2.34 2.19 603 1971 161.60 3.79 4.37 162 624.70 0.60 0.55 610 526.40 2.77 2.09 482 1972 163.90 3.62 2.59 164 813.70 0.61 0.54 991 518.50 2.77 1.85 495 1973 167.60 3.62 4.50 168 849.00 0.69 0.71 865 508.60 2.62 2.68 501 1974 129.50 5.03 8.44 130 714.40 1.44 0.92 393 485.50 3.88 5.14 534 1975 132.70 6.17 7.35 133 826.10 1.41 1.05 597 451.30 5.36 4.33 435 1976 97.20 6.82 7.32 97 493.20 1.36 1.31 482 378.50 5.35 4.36 348 1977 101.70 7.37 9.69 102 665.80 1.47 1.71 797 441.90 6.38 5.20 397 1978 134.90 9.98 12.16 135 631.60 1.74 .81 693 449.40 7.23 5.88 405 1979 145.30 12.75 11.50 145 553.20 2.24 1.73 433 461.40 8.32 6.54 437 1980 154.80 15.22 14.63 155 456.60 2.96 2.30 360 489.20 9.64 8.75 482 1981 111.90 18.26 25.97 112 394.80 3.35 2.93 319 376.70 12.78 12.15 358 1982 143.40 22.01 25.07 143 523.10 4.47 4.75 595 421.20 15.09 12.39 374 1983 109.10 28.92 28.43 109 557.80 5.43 5.94 692 424.40 23.73 19.05 390 1984 134.10 42.20 38.60 134 729.24 6.79 6.54 785 481.10 32.50 26.18 460 Tabte D.1: Calculation of Foreign Exchange Effects Year ..........HEAT......... ..........BEEF........... . .........SHEEP........... 0 P PW* 0* a P PW,* 0* a P PU* 0* ..................................................................................... 1960 492.10 2.97 1.82 383 40.30 20.38 13.87 40 18.80 40.23 40.58 19 1961 429.60 2.97 1.94 343 44.40 20.47 13.61 43 18.90 40.88 39.59 19 1962 645.00 2.97 1.96 524 50.20 20.46 13.24 48 19.30 39.54 37.59 20 1963 592.00 3.02 2.02 467 46.80 22.20 14.08 44 19.10 49.67 43.04 19 1964 471.90 3.02 1.97 379 42.90 24.48 18.45 44 22.50 63.03 58.69 23 1965 612.30 3.24 1.72 409 58.10 24.23 18.78 66 25.60 57.27 54.39 26 1966 312.00 3.26 1.91 229 60.50 27.62 19.09 63 26.10 65.42 55.99 26 1967 637.20 3.26 1.91 499 49.90 29.67 17.06 48 21.60 66.51 55.87 22 1968 747.50 3.26 1.90 548 57.90 29.67 16.36 54 17.50 63.38 48.10 18 1969 453.60 3.26 1.80 304 79.20 30.13 17.72 78 18.40 78.97 52.96 19 1970 548.20 3.26 2.09 415 87.20 31.54 21.52 87 19.20 77.78 57.60 19 1971 793.70 3.55 1.88 505 74.20 36.69 25.75 82 18.00 102.67 73.17 18 1972 604.30 3.55 2.19 445 73.00 39.56 27.18 74 18.00 117.22 83.54 18 1973 516.90 3.55 4.08 650 81.20 53.60 31.95 65 19.90 144.14 101.63 19 1974 533.60 4.26 5.88 742 84.30 61.81 41.21 69 18.20 178.86 145.75 18 1975 601.20 4.94 5.67 826 97.70 70.65 33.06 70 17.80 217.50 170.34 18 1976 685.60 4.94 5.09 897 79.30 85.12 35.51 54 18.60 242.88 185.60, 18 1977 224.30 6.05 5.85 259 77.40 113.30 48.45 53 19.90 291.37 212.21 20 1978 249.90 7.59 6.89 269 88.10 130.83 59.12 63 18.60 309.25 223.47 19 1979 247.80 11.22 7.94 232 89.00 182.03 82.38 70 18.50 411.31 332.93 19 1980 429.50 12.86 11.08 415 97.30 217.50 119.54 78 20.10 469.21 379.28 20 1981 315.20 14.69 14.50 324 113.80 216.06 140.03 96 19.70 401.17 389.54 20 1982 424.50 17.93 15.66 371 116.70 239.70 183.76 109 21.50 508.15 466.32 22 1983 326.80 23.80 20.51 300 102.00 360.00 220.99 86 22.80 613.26 497.74 23 1984 465.60 34.94 26.70 369 92.60 435.87 329.76 88 21.90 757.30 677.08 24 Table D.2: Calculation of Foreign Exchange Effects (contd) ............................................................................... :.................................................................. ........ POTATOES........ .........MILK........... ..........WINE........... POTATOES MILK WINE fEAR C RCP RCPW* C* C RCP RCPW* C* C RCP RCPV* C* C-0 C*-Q* C-0 C*-Q* C-0 C*-Q* ................................................................................................................................................. 1960 906.39 1.22 1.22 906.41 329.10 2.75 2.64 332.12 11091 3.00 2.36 11399.30 -134.91 -134.48 0.00 2.40 0.00 327.84 1961 887.75 1.12 1.72 722.56 355.90 2.65 2.48 360.91 7069 3.41 2.00 7449.72 -167.85 -332.80 0.00 4.88 0.00 381.30 1962 716.18 1.43 2.66 499.00 345.10 2.65 2.58 347.27 14819 2.59 2.53 14866.79 -177.32 -394.13 0.00 2.06 0.00 43.69 1963 1029.42 1.15 1.91 790.59 351.10 2.74 2.73 351.41 12495 2.22 2.92 11984.09 -115.38 -351.67 0.00 0.55 0.00 -568.05 1964 1000.51 1.09 1.70 802.98 320.00 3.05 2.95 322.35 13044 2.20 2.64 12701.98 -142.89 -337.39 0.00 2.46 0.00 -405.56 1965 771.02 1.63 1.63 771.95 365.70 2.96 2.87 368.27 14197 2.10 2.67 13690.42 -116.98 -114.75 0.00 2.47 0.00 -536.36 1966 849.11 1.86 1.80 858.83 356.80 3.05 3.00 358.22 8307 2.76 2.85 8269.57 -74.19 -63.46 0.00 1.54 0.00 -56.13 1967 1159.31 1.01 1.58 929.61 348.20 3.66 3.62 349.07 9273 3.58 3.66 9245.06 -136.39 -375.88 0.00 11.24 0.00 -285.80 1968 942.68 1.09 2.29 576.33 404.30 3.59 3.63 403.38 10911 3.31 4.80 10269.07 -140.42 -514.51 0.00 12.70 0.00 -1014.83 1969 999.68 1.41 2.26 789.53 444.10 3.39 3.57 438.95 7581 4.10 5.34 7282.22 -126.72 -346.98 0.00 10.14 0.00 -542.19 1970 1069.43 1.01 2.26 603.88 458.10 3.31 3.37 456.09 10629 3.53 6.33 9533.28 -150.57 -626.05 0.00 12.44 0.00 -1407.29 1971 971.93 1.25 2.70 575.97 432.70 3.18 3.58 420.51 8321 4.05 6.81 7581.78 -151.97 -548.67 0.00 -7.69 0.00 -843.83 1972 1027.99 1.54 1.38 1063.73 446.50 2.91 3.43 428.92 7550 4.39 7.89 6768.24 -110.91 -78.38 0.00 -11.60 0.00 -879.40 1973 953.33 1.62 2.29 816.72 462.10 2.75 3.21 445.15 10063 4.85 8.39 9107.70 -132.87 -274.96 0.00 -7.77 0.00 -1137.02 1974 1026.17 1.62 1.55 1041.43 483.70 3.26 3.80 466.18 12913 2.99 6.41 10996.13 -88.33 -80.01 0.00 -3.79 0.00 -2279.30 1975 875.98 2.07 3.36 684.12 514.60 2.83 4.03 466.43 8137 3.01 4.16 7734.42 -136.42 -330.80 0.00 -44.46 0.00 -445.24 1976 828.45 2.56 2.87 793.39 528.20 2.42 4.33 436.65 8446 3.36 4.11 8201.65 -89.65 -123.67 0.00 -87.23 0.00 -351.16 1977 1095.30 1.99 2.64 970.48 559.90 2.22 3.85 469.63 5895 4.80 6.18 5673.61 -105.30 -227.63 0.00 -86.91 0.00 -288.16 1978 971.45 1.15 3.34 324.02 568.90 2.21 4.46 441.02 5678 7.96 6.22 5839.21 -156.35 -784.37 0.00 -129.27 0.00 10.40 1979 874.96 2.05 3.57 648.19 656.20 2.21 3.97 541.03 13199 3.48 6.32 11799.62 -145.64 -367.32 0.00 -113.86 0.00 -1544.79 1980 2044.60 1.44 1.52 2005.24 734.50 1.96 3.62 597.27 9200 3.25 7.35 7687.90 926.70 898.23 0.00 -125.32 0.00 -1870.26 1981 718.27 1.70 3.29 483.68 798.60 2.25 3.23 721.91 8819 4.51 3.68 9029.35 -110.93 -342.83 0.00 -54.88 0.00 -171.39 1982 1092.60 1.77 1.55 -1141.60 792.60 2.15 3.27 701.48 10031 3.28 4.17 9676.26 109.80 162.24 0.00 -84.80 0.00 -519.57 1983 789.04 1.69 2.47 663.45 793.90 2.32 3.62 696.25 8249 3.04 3.29 8161.53 -116.26 -253.64 0.00 -56.51 0.00 -511.98 1984 952.77 2.11 2.72 857.22 779.50 2.85 3.68 729.32 8393 2.84 3.69 8068.57 -85.23 -181.14 0.00 -49.37 0.00 -330.92 Table D.2: Calculation of Foreign Exchange Effects (contd) ..................................................................................................................................................... ....... RICE.......... .........TOMATO......... .........CORN............ RICE TOMATO CORN YEAR C RCP RCPW* C* C RCP RCPW C* C RCP RCPW* C* C-0 C**Q* C-0 C*.Q* C-0 C*-O* ..................................................................................................................................................... 1960 147.39 2.76 2.31 160.36 0.00 0.57 0.49 0.00 447.79 2.38 1.49 497.99 -3.81 9.16 -55.00 -65.33 -18.61 95.66 1961 188.94 2.77 2.06 215.13 0.00 0.55 0.42 0.00 635.19 2.11 1.71 671.29 11.54 37.73 -75.60 -75.38 3.19 48.06 1962 166.72 2.79 3.76 135.47 0.00 0.55 0.50 0.00 591.42 2.18 1.79 623.69 -6.78 -38.03 -147.80 -135.04 -7.48 62.56 1963 191.43 2.80 2.84 190.01 0.00 0.54 0.54 0.00 572.14 2.15 1.81 599.41 25.13 23.71 -187.50 -197.88 48.74 104.69 1964 178.31 2.93 2.47 193.47 0.00 0.53 0.47 0.00 648.75 2.10 1.60 695.37 -3.09 12.07 -263.00 -269.87 52.25 122.01 1965 162.36 2.89 2.12 185.75 0.00 0.52 0.46 0.00 508.60 2.53 1.68 559.50 23.56 46.95 -413.00 -880.16 50.00 33.92 1966 196.45 2.98 2.53 212.60 0.00 0.50 0.46 0.00 824.62 2.30 1.70 889.67 42.45 58.60 -515.00 -562.53 259.92 355.21 1967 166.97 2.98 2.73 174.66 0.00 0.48 0.46 0.00 753.44 2.17 1.55 817.87 20.97 28.66 -798.80 -823.01 176.64 281.12 1968 191.44 3.11 2.95 196.84 0.00 0.47 0.49 0.00 935.92 2.16 1.73 991.94 42.44 47.84 -866.80 -960.46 388.02 475.23 1969 216.87 3.00 2.63 231.41 0.00 0.45 0.52 0.00 919.84 2.01 1.73 957.69 41.07 55.61 -826.60 -1024.49 367.24 408.90 1970 199.63 2.99 2.49 217.63 0.00 0.46 0.46 0.00 874.92 1.89 1.80 887.23 4.93 22.93 -733.60 -786.41 293.52 284.42 1971 159.39 2.94 3.66 138.10 0.00 0.47 0.45 0.00 1001.37 2.15 1.66 1069.25 -2.21 -23.50 -624.70 -610.06 474.97 586.99 1972 190.60 2.57 2.14 207.78 0.00 0.43 0.45 0.00 1266.89 1.96 1.38 1380.60 26.70 43.88 -813.70 -991.20 748.39 885.82 1973 165.28 2.43 3.31 132.75 0.00 0.46 0.52 0.00 1266.23 1.76 1.87 1241.54 -2.32 -34.85 -849.00 -864.91 757.63 741.03 1974 138.09 2.73 4.01 103.17 0.00 0.78 0.44 0.00 1456.06 2.01 2.71 1304.17 8.59 -26.33 -714.40 -392.61 970.56 769.80 1975 181.14 2.91 2.86 182.83 0.00 0.67 0.41 0.00 1644.47 1.75 1.96 1582.36 48.44 50.13 -826.10 -597.20 1193.17 1147.29 1976 190.07 2.76 2.35 205.22 0.00 0.55 0.42 0.00 1559.17 1.49 1.69 1498.69 92.87 108.02 -493.20 -481.68 1180.67 1150.50 1977 204.10 2.34 2.58 192.68 0.00 0.47 0.45 0.00 1628.67 1.33 1.66 1508.50 102.40 90.98 -665.80 -796.85 1186.77 1111.41 1978 186.15 2.59 3.03 169.25 0.00 0.45 0.45 0.00 2106.35 1.48 1.59 2059.56 51.25 34.35 -631.60 -693.35 1656.95 1654.25 1979 272.13 2.82 2.45 291.02 0.00 0.49 0.37 0.00 2448.87 1.48 1.40 2486.78 126.83 145.72 -553.20 -433.23 1987.47 2049.33 1980 216.15 2.71 2.50 225.07 0.00 0.53 0.39 0.00 3009.23 1.25 1.61 2747.52 61.35 70.27 -456.60 -360.16 2520.03 2265.90 1981 226.40 2.74 3.26 203.00 0.00 0.50 0.37 0.00 2905.63 1.42 1.79 2679.21 114.50 91.10 -394.80 -319.50 2528.93 2321.27 1982 290.74 2.70 2.56 298.69 0.00 0.55 0.48 0.00 2741.17 1.41 1.52 267.59 147.34 155.29 -523.10 -595.48 2319.97 2303.70 1983 185.75 2.88 2.58 196.19 0.00 0.54 0.56 0.00 2628.20 1.60 1.98 2443.04 76.65 87.09 -557.80 -692.38 2203.80 2052.74 1984 266.61 3.33 3.09 276.97 0.00 0.54 0.52 0.00 2394.14 2.19 2.18 2399.14 132.51 142.87 -729.24 -785.05 1913.04 1938.92 Table D.2: CaLculation of Foreign Exchange Effects (contd) ............................................................................................................................................... YEAR ............WHEAT........... .........BEEF.......... ...........SHEEP.......... WHEAT BEEF SHEEP C RCP RCPU* C* C RCP RCPU* C* C RCP RCPW* C* C-0 C*.Q* C-0 C*q** C-0 C*Q** ............................................................................................................................................... 1960 502.02 2.98 1.84 566.67 40.52 21.56 13.87 56.42 14.36 42.55 40.95 14.74 9.92 74.57 0.22 23.15 -4.44 -5.08 1961 586.93 2.88 1.85 657.19 44.34 20.88 11.39 66.50 15.67 41.69 36.54 17.03 157.33 227.59 -0.06 31.95 -3.23 -2.48 1962 791.10 2.88 1.94 877.59 50.88 20.87 12.86 72.36 16.73 40.33 37.03 17.68 146.10 232.59 0.68 33.65 -2.57 -2.27 1963 677.58 2.87 2.01 746.04 47.80 22.19 13.80 67.68 15.86 49.65 42.65 17.43 85.58 154.04 1.00 31.67 -3.24 -1.80 1964 635.97 2.84 1.89 707.76 48.44 24.23 17.66 62.89 14.81 62.38 56.15 15.84 164.07 235.86 5.54 24.32 -7.69 -6.99 1965 810.12 2.96 1.60 935.24 63.02 23.29 17.34 80.72 14.73 55.04 50.49 15.58 197.82 322.94 4.92 21.11 -10.87 -11.01 1966 622.57 2.87 1.74 705.16 62.13 25.56 17.64 83.32 13.84 60.55 51.07 15.36 310.57 393.16 1.63 30.22 -12.26 -10.83 1967 830.98 2.77 1.68 940.79 51.37 26.48 16.26 73.17 14.89 59.36 50.05 16.53 193.78 303.59 1.47 36.69 -6.71 -5.36 1968 874.61 2.72 1.68 986.88 60.32 26.01 14.95 88.56 19.35 55.57 42.88 22.44 127.11 239.38 2.42 47.07 1.85 5.23 1969 705.70 2.56 1.56 798.28 81.21 24.90 16.51 111.31 18.80 65.26 46.70 22.54 252.10 344.68 2.01 47.13 0.40 5.15 1970 823.44 2.50 1.72 910.39 90.26 25.43 18.35 117.92 19.23 62.72 47.73 22.45 275.24 362.19 3.06 42.62 0.03 4.14 w 1971 866.91 2.95 1.49 1010.88 77.57 28.44 21.49 98.41 16.34 79.57 58.80 19.32 73.21 217.18 3.37 25.65 -1.66 2.15 1972 679.57 2.69 1.63 770.03 75.39 28.03 22.30 92.34 17.11 83.06 63.57 19.92 75.27 165.73 2.39 26.65 -0.89 2.84 1973 610.87 2.55 2.85 586.62 83.00 35.97 23.50 114.64 20.61 96.73 71.76 24.34 93.97 69.72 1.80 60.64 0.71 6.03 1974 791.49 2.06 3.10 657.70 86.85 33.58 19.73 126.26 21.82 97.18 75.20 25.27 257.89 124.10 2.55 69.53 3.62 8.18 1975 825.81 2.12 2.57 766.98 97.51 33.32 13.08 162.67 14.32 102.59 75.17 16.99 224.61 165.78 -0.19 113.19 -3.48 -0.09 1976 872.11 1.78 1.97 840.24 80.28 34.39 11.64 138.70 18.85 98.13 69.78 22.67 186.51 154.64 0.98 102.02 0.25 4.68 1977 542.40 1.40 1.87 480.56 79.80 35.95 13.13 135.53 18.44 92.46 65.21 22.24 318.10 256.26 2.40 97.10 -1.46 3.14 1978 858.39 1.56 1.86 801.91 91.59 33.99 14.83 148.38 34.04 80.35 59.26 40.30 608.49 552.01 3.49 100.7 15.44 22.40 1979 758.99 1.59 1.70 740.94 95.10 40.20 17.59 153.93 38.53 90.83 71.34 44.31 511.19 493.14 6.10 105.98 20.03 25.72 1980 889.90 1.28 2.03 713.55 99.00 38.71 20.52 150.18 38.26 83.51 68.16 43.18 460.40 284.05 1.70 87.52 18.16 23.38 1981 1163.97 1.65 2.14 1046.74 116.12 32.40 17.80 173.67 47.56 60.16 54.34 50.78 848.77 731.54 2.32 94.63 27.86 30.76 1982 1005.94 2.01 1.92 1021.21 121.67 29.42 19.00 169.07 44.55 62.37 53.69 48.89 581.44 596.71 4.97 71.11 23.05 27.49 1983 839.71 2.46 2.13 877.45 105.26 35.87 20.99 153.31 46.52 61.10 50.14 52.36 512.91 550.65 3.26 80.37 23.72 30.03 1984 1166.54 2.32 2.22 1184.04 94.97 34.42 26.47 119.11 46.51 59.81 55.57 48.81 700.94 718.44 2.37 36.84 24.61 26.78 Table D.3: CalcuLation of Foreign Exchange Effects (contd) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year .......POTATOES....... .......MILK......... .........WINE........... E PW C-0 C*-Q* FEE PW C-Q C*-0* FEE PW C-Q C*-Q* FEE PN PN* ......................................................................................... .................................. 1960 28.75 1.15 -134.91 -134.48 0.02 2.00 0.00 2.40 0.17 2.84' 0.00 327.84 32.26 0.95 0.99 1961 28.75 1.10 -167.85 -332.80 -6.31 1.91 0.00 4.88 0.32 3.34 0.00 381.30 44.30 0.98 1.05 1962 28.75 1.40 -177.32 -394.13 -10.53 1.97 0.00 2.06 0.14 2.54 0.00 43.69 3.85 0.98 1.01 1963 28.75 1.15 -115.38 *351.67 -9.45 2.07 0.00 0.55 0.04 2.22 0.00 -568.05 -43.86 1.00 1.00 1964 28.75 1.10 -142.89 -337.39 -7.43 2.33 0.00 2.46 0.20 2.22 0.00 -405.56 -31.25 1.01 1.05 1965 28.75 1.70 -116.98 -114.75 0.13 2.26 0.00 2.47 0.19 2.18 0.00 -536.36 -39.79 1.04 1.07 1966 28.75 2.01 -74.19 -63.46 0.71 2.50 0.00 1.54 0.13 2.98 0.00 -56.13 -5.51 1.08 1.10 1967 28.75 1.13 -136.39 -375.88 -8.90 2.60 0.00 11.24 0.96 4.01 0.00 -285.80 -37.68 1.12 1.13 1968 28.75 1.24 -140.42 -514.51 -14.87 2.60 0.00 12.70 1.06 3.77 0.00 -1014.83 -122.65 1.14 1.13 1969 28.75 1.71 -126.72 -346.98 -11.62 2.60 0.00 10.14 0.81 4.96 0.00 -542.19 -83.00 1.21 1.15 1970 28.75 1.25 -150.57 -626.05 -17.70 2.60 0.00 12.44 0.96 4.38 0.00 -1407.29 -183.56 1.24 1.22 1971 28.32 1.61 -151.97 -548.67 -18.72 3.20 0.00 -7.69 -0.72 5.22 0.00 -843.83 -129.08 1.29 1.26 1972 27.01 2.17 -110.91 -78.38 2.07 3.20 0.00 -11.60 -1.09 6.20 0.00 -879.40 -160.21 1.41 1.34 1973 24.67 2.42 -132.87 -274.96 -9.78 3.20 0.00 -7.77 -0.71 7.23 0.00 -1137.02 -233.84 1.49 1.43 1974 25.41 2.98 -88.33 -80.01 0.58 4.40 0.00 -3.79 -0.39 5.51 0.00 -2279.30 -291.77 1.84 1.90 1975 25.55 4.38 -136.42 -330.80 -18.00 6.44 0.00 -44.46 -6.05 6.39 0.00 -445.24 -60.16 2.12 2.21 1976 30.23 6.34 -89.65 -123.67 -3.68 7.54 0.00 -87.23 -11.23 8.32 0.00 -351.16 -49.90 2.48 2.58 1977 38.28 6.28 -105.30 -227.63 -9.77 8.65 0.00 -86.91 -9.56 15.12 0.00 -288.16 -55.39 3.15 3.13 1978 43.94 4.43 -156.35 -784.37 -28.59 12.21 0.00 -129.27 -16.22 30.63 0.00 10.40 3.27 3.85 3.70 1979 48.92 9.28 -145.64 -367.32 -16.87 13.71 0.00 -113.86 -12.80 15.76 0.00 -1544.79 -199.63 4.53 4.66 1980 50.06 8.10 926.70 898.23 -1.62 13.71 0.00 -125.32 -12.07 18.25 0.00 -1870.26 -239.74 5.62 5.44 1981 61.55 11.34 -110.93 -342.83 -13.76 15.27 0.00 -54.88 --4.38 30.07 0.00 -171.39 -26.97 6.67 6.77 1982 79.47 14.46 109.80 162.24 3.01 19.15 0.00 -84.80 -6.45 26.70 0.00 -519.57 -55.12 8.15 8.15 1983 110.80 17.01 -116.26 -253.64 -6.58 20.50 0.00 -56.51 -3.26 30.49 0.00 -511.98 -43.93 10.04 9.63 1984 146.39 26.76 -85.23 -181.14 -5.30 29.02 0.00 -49.37 -2.96 34.04 0.00 -330.92 -23.25 12.66 12.03 Table 0.3: Calculation of Foreign Exchange Effects (contd) ........................................................................ 1-111............................... ............... Year RICE TOMATOES CORN E PW C-0 C*.0* FEE PU C-0 C*.Q* FEE PU C-Q C*-0* FEE PN PN* 1960 28.75 2.56 -3.81 9.16 1.15 0.54 -55.00 -65.33 .-0.19 1.62 -18.61 95.66 6.41 0.95 0.99 1961 28.75 2.63 11.54 37.73 2.40 0.54 -75.60 -75.38 0.00 1.87 3.19 48.06 2.92 0.98 1.05 1962 28.75 4.11 *6.78 -38.03 -4.45 0.54 -147.80 -138.04 0.18 1.90 -7.48 62.56 4.61 0.98 1.01 1963 28.75 2.88 25.13 23.71 -0.14 0.54 -187.50 -197.88 -0.19 1.80 48.74 104.69 3.50 1.00 1.00 1964 28.75 2.83 -3.09 12.07 1.49 0.54 -263.00 -269.87 -0.13 1.82 52.25 122.01 4.41 1.01 1.05 1965 28.75 2.48 23.56 46.95 1.97 0.54 -413.00 -880.16 -8.59 1.95 50.00 33.92 -1.07 1.04 1.07 1966 28.75 2.92 42.45 58.60 1.55 0.54 -515.00 -562.53 -0.85 1.99 259.92 355.21 6.25 1.08 1.10 1967 28.75 3.18 20.97 28.66 0.80 0.54 -798.80 -823.01 -0.43 1.96 176.64 281.12 6.73 1.12 1.13 1968 28.75 3.25 42.44 47.84 0.56 0.54 -866.80 -960.46 -1.62 1.97 388.02 475.23 5.51 1.14 1.13 1969 28.75 2.72 41.07 55.61 1.22 0.54 -826.60 -1024.49 -3.30 1.94 367.24 408.90 2.49 1.21 1.15 1970 28.75 2.90 4.93 22.93 1.55 0.54 -733.60 -786.41 -0.85 2.18 293.52 284.42 -0.59 1.24 1.22 1971 28.32 4.33 -2.21 -23.50 -2.70 0.54 -624.70 -610.06 0.23 2.07 474.97 586.99 6.79 1.29 1.26 1972 27.01 2.60 26.70 43.88 1.31 0.54 -813.70 -991.20 -2.82 1.86 748.39 885.82 7.51 1.41 1.34 1973 24.67 4.38 -2.32 -34.85 -4.05 0.69 -849.00 -864.91 -0.31 2.62 757.63 741.03 -1.24 1.49 1.43 1974 25.41 8.20 8.59 -26.33 -6.65 0.89 -714.40 -392.61 6.65 4.99 970.56 769.80 -23.27 1.84 1.90 1975 25.55 6.98 48.44 50.13 0.25 1.00 -826.10 -597.20 4.84 4.12 1193.17 1147.29 -4.00 2.12 2.21 1976 30.23 6.84 92.87 108.02 1.77 1.22 -493.20 -481.68 0.24 4.08 1180.67 1150.50 -2.10 2.48 2.58 1977 38.28 8.36 102.40 90.98 -1.21 1.47 -665.80 -796.85 -2.45 4.51 1186.77 1111.41 - -4.32 3.15 3.13 1978 43.94 10.80 51.25 34.35 -1.88 1.60 -631.60 -693.35 -1.02 5.26 1656.95 1654.25 -0.15 3.85 3.70 1979 48.92 11.95 126.83 145.72 1.85 1.80 -553.20 -433.23 1.77 6.78 1987.47 2049.33 3.44 4.53 4.66 1980 50.06 13.27 61.35 70.27 0.83 2.08 -456.60 -360.16 1.41 7.97 2520.03 2265.90 -14.23 5.62 5.44 1981 61.55 23.55 114.50 91.10 -2.88 2.65 -394.80 -319.50 1.04 11.05 2528.93 2321.27 -12.01 6.67 6.77 1982 79.47 21.86 147.34 155.29 0.69 4.12 -523.10 -595.48 -1.18 10.87 2319.97 2303.70 -0.70 8.15 8.15 1983 110.80 24.99 76.65 87.09 0.73 5.19 -557.80 -692.38 -1.97 16.82 2203.80 2052.74 -7.15 10.04 9.63 1984 146.39 34.97 132.51 142.87 0.75 5.90 -729.24 -785.05 -0.68 23.81 1913.04 1938.92 1.27 12.66 12.03 Table D.3: Calculation of Foreign Exchange Effects (contd) ........ WHEAT . .......BEEF . .........SHEEP........ Year E Pu C-0 C*.Q* FEE PU C-0 C*.Q* FEE PU C-0 C*-Q* FEE Pu PN* 1960 28.75 2.01 9.92 74.57 4.50 15.01 0.22 23.15 2.43 37.60 -4.44 -5.08 -0.84 0.95 0.99 1961 28.75 2.03 157.33 227.59 4.96 13.97 -0.06 31.95 3.62 35.80 -3.23 -2.48 0.93 0.98 1.05 1962 28.75 2.07 146.10 232.59 6.21 13.78 0.68 33.65 2.45 35.67 -2.57 -2.27 0.38 0.98 1.01 1963 28.75 2.00 85.58 154.04 4.76 13.97 1.00 31.67 2.52 42.94 -3.24 -1.80 2.15 1.00 1.00 1964 28.75 2.16 164.07 235.86 5.38 19.91 5.54 24.32 2.76 54.68 -7.69 -6.99 1.34 1.01 1.05 1965 28.75 1.86 197.82 322.94 7.92 20.03 4.92 21.11 1.84 51.10 -10.87 -11.01 -0.25 1.04 1.07 1966 28.75 2.04 310.57 393.16 5.55 20.16 1.63 30.22 6.43 53.21 -12.26 -10.83 2.50 1.08 1.10 1967 28.75 2.13 193.78 303.59 7.69 18.76 1.47 36.69 3.61 52.40 -6.71 -5.36 2.32 1.12 1.13 1968 28.75 1.92 127.11 239.38 6.91 16.54 2.42 47.07 3.44 48.59 1.85 5.23 5.26 1.14 1.13 1969 28.75 1.75 252.10 344.68 5.00 17.43 2.01 47.13 6.03 58.36 0.40 5.15 8.56 1.21 1.15 1970 28.75 2.08 275.24 362.19 5.39 21.50 3.06 42.62 5.40 59.43 0.03 4.14 7.27 1.24 1.22 1971 28.32 1.86 73.21 217.18 7.85 25.62 3.37 25.65 2.54 76.65 -1.66 2.15 8.56 1.29 1.26 1972 27.01 2.20 75.27 165.73 5.85 27.44 2.39 26.65 4.08 89.61 -0.89 2.84 9.83 1.41 1.34 1973 24.67 3.98 93.97 69.72 -2.75 31.34 1.80 60.64 14.46 109.18 0.71 6.03 16.50 1.49 1.43 1974 25.41 5.71 257.89 124.10 -17.75 40.02 2.55 69.53 19.77 141.42 3.62 8:18 14.98 1.84 1.90 1975 25.55 5.39 224.61 165.78 -6.71 31.47 -0.19 113.19 23.23 164.59 -3.48 -0.09 11.82 2.12 2.21 1976 30.23 4.76 186.51 154.64 -2.59 33.32 0.98 102.02 16.24 178.93 0.25 4.68 13.53 2.48 2.58 1977 38.28 5.06 318.10 256.26 -3.98 42.79 2.40 97.10 47.19 221.92 -1.46 3.14 12.98 3.15 3.13 1978 43.94 6.14 608.49 552.01 -3.56 53.77 3.49 100.77 47.64 240.90 15.44 22.40 17.24 3.85 3.70 1979 48.92 8.24 511.19 493.14 -1.22 84.93 6.10 105.98 69.98 319.11 20.03 25.72 14.90 4.53 4.66 1980 50.06 10.06 460.40 284.05 -12.46 109.72 1.70 87.52 43.80 396.98 18.16 23.38 14.56 5.62 5.44 1981 61.55 13.17 848.77 731.54 -8.08 128.14 2.32 94.63 60.97 383.28 27.86 30.76 5.82 6.67 6.77 1982 79.47 13.69 581.44 596.71 0.83 162.32 4.97 71.11 31.82 467.68 23.05 27.49 8.24 8.15 8.15 1983 110.80 18.07 512.91 550.65 1.92 197.44 3.26 80.37 42.04 527.98 23.72 30.03 9.37 10.04 9.63 1984 146.39 24.24 700.94 718.44 0.88 302.33 2.37 36.84 15.29 718.41 24.61 26.78 3.22 12.66 12.03 - 243 - ANNEX E Estimation of Price Intervention Effects on Government Expenditures - 244 - Estimation of Price Intervention Effects on Government Expenditures 1. The estimation of the government expenditures with each agricultural commoidty as a consquence of price interventions is based on the following expression: GE J PS. + CS. j,t 3,t 3,t where PSJ,t M total production explicit subsidies of each j agricultural commodity and t year CS. = total consumption explicit subsidies-of each j agricultural commodity and year t 1.1 The estimation of the production explicit subsidies is based on the following expression: PS. = (P - PW. ) + (ICW. - IC. ) x Q 3,t j,t j,t j,t j,t j,t where, ? and PW. = private and world prices of each j commodity and year t ~j,t J,t IC. and ICW. = private and world input costs per unit of each j commodity j,t ,t and year t Qi, = output, with price intervention - 245 - 1.2 The estimation of the consumption explicit subsidies is based on the following expression: CS = (CPW - CP. ) x C. j,t j,t 3,t , where, CP. and CPW.j = private and world consumer prices .of each j agricultural commodity and year t C = consumption of each j agricultural commodity and year t with price interventions Table E.1: Calculations of Government Expenditure on Subsidies ........................................................................................................... per unit subsidy Total subsidy YEAR .........POTATOES........ P PW IC ICU 0 PN CP CPU C/rIc Product. Consumpt. Nominal Real ........................................................................................................... 1960 1.15 1.15 1.04 1.04 1041.30 0.95 1.15 1.15 '906.39 -0.00 0.00 -1.70 -1.80 1961 1.10 1.10 1.04 1.04 1055.60 0.98 1.10 1.10 887.75 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.24 1962 1.40 1.40 1.00 1.00 893.50 0.98 1.40 1.40 716.18 0.00 0.00 1.38 1.41 1963 1.15 1.15 1.02 1.03 1144.80 1.00 1.15 1.15 1029.42 0.01 0.00 13.31 13.30 1964 1.10 1.10 1.02 1.03 1143.40 1.01 1.10 1.10 1000.51 0.01 0.00 13.29 13.15 1965 1.70 1.70 1.03 1.04 888.00 1.04 1.70 1.70 771.02 0.01 0.00 10.29 9.89 1966 2.01 2.01 1.06 1.07 923.30 1.08 2.01 2.01 849.11 0.01 0.00 10.68 9.89 1967 1.13 1.13 1.02 1.03 1295.70 1.12 1.13 1.13 1159.31 0.01 0.00 15.15 13.52 1968 1.24 1.24 1.03 1.05 1083.10 1.14 1.24 1.24 942.68 0.02 0.00 23.48 20.59 1969 1.71 1.71 1.03 1.05 1126.40 1.21 1.71 1.71 999.68 0.02 0.00 24.44 20.20 1970 1.25 1.25 1.03 1.05 1220.00 1.24 1.25 1.25 1069.43 0.01 0.00 16.99 13.70 1971 1.61 1.61 1.00 1.02 1123.90 1.29 1.61 1.61 971.93 0.02 0.00 21.75 16.85 1972 2.17 2.17 1.01 1.03 1138.90 1.41 2.17 2.17 1027.99 0.02 0.00 18.46 13.08 1973 2.42 2.42 0.99 1.01 1086.20 1.49 2.42 2.42 953.33 0.02 0.00 20.03 13.44 1974 2.98 2.98 1.35 1.40 1114.50 1.84 2.98 2.98 1026.17 0.05 0.00 54.95 29.86 1975 4.38 4.38 1.53 1.53 1012.40 2.12 4.38 4.38 875.98 -0.00 0.00 -2.83 -1.33 1976 6.34 6.34 1.51 1.65 918.10 2.48 6.34 6.34 828.45 0.14 0.00 129.60 52.36 1977 6.28 6.28 2.11 2.23 1200.60 3.15 6.28 6.28 1095.30 0.12 0.00 143.81 45.64 1978 4.43 4.43 2.59 2.86 1127.80 3.85 4.43 4.43 971.45 0.26 0.00 296.97 77.16 1979 9.28 9.28 3.13 3.40 1020.60 4.53 9.28 9.28 874.96 0.27 0.00 277.09 61.19 1980 8.10 8.10 3.73 4.25 1117.90 5.62 8.10 8.10 2044.60 0.52 0.00 581.31 103.46 1981 11.34 11.34 4.99 5.59 829.20 6.67 11.34 11.34 718.27 0.60 0.00 497.23 74.57 1982 14.46 14.46 6.95 7.38 982.80 8.15 14.46 14.46 1092.60 0.44 0.00 430.63 52.86 1983 17.01 17.01 9.87 10.29 905.30 10.04 17.01 17.01 789.04 0.42 0.00 379.12 37.77 1984 26.76 26.76 13.66 13.65 1038.00 12.66 26.76 26.76 952.77 -0.01 0.00 *11.67 -0.92 Table E.2: Calculations of Government Expenditure on Subsidies (contd) .......................................................................................................... per unit Total subsidy YEAR ..MILK ...... subsidy on P PW IC ICU a PN CP CPu C Product. Consumpt. Nominal Real .......................................................................................................... 1960 2.00 2.00 1.43 1.39 330.64 0.95 2.60 2.60 329.10 -0.04 0.00 -12.39 -13.10 1961 1.91 1.91 1.45 1.45 357.48 0.98 2.60 2.60 355.90 -0.01 0.00 -2.06 -2.11 1962 1.97 1.97 1.49 1.49 346.72 0.98 2.60 2.60 345.10 -0.00 0.00 -1.12 -1.14 1963 2.07 2.07 1.56 1.59 352.82 1.00 2.74 2.74 351.10 0.04 0.00 12.43 12.42 1964 2.33 2.33 1.60 1.64 321.79 1.01 3.08 3.08 320.00 0.04 0.00 11.92 11.79 1965 2.26 2.26 1.66 1.67 367.52 1.04 3.08 3.08 365.70 0.01 0.00 5.15 4.95 1966 2.50 2.50 1.70 1.72 358.67 1.08 3.30 3.30 356.80 0.02 0.00 8.57 7.93 1967 3.10 2.60 1.68 1.70 350.05 1.12 4.10 4.10 348.20 0.53 0.00 183.83 164.06 1968 3.10 2.60 1.70 1.77 406.21 1.14 4.10 4.10 404.30 0.57 0.00 232.22 203.62 1969 3.10 2.60 1.70 1.77 445.99 1.21 4.10 4.10 444.10 0.57 0.00 254.89 210.65 1970 3.10 2.60 1.70 1.74 459.96 1.24 4.10 4.10 458.10 0.54 0.00 248.96 200.75 1971 3.50 3.20 1.69 1.69 434.51 1.29 4.10 4.50 432.70 0.30 0.40 301.87 233.96 1972 3.60 3.20 1.72 1.68 448.29 1.41 4.10 4.60 446.50 0.35 0.50 382.21 270.83 1973 3.60 3.20 1.81 1.88 464.09 1.49 4.10 4.60 462.10 0.47 0.50 449.61 301.71 1974 4.90 4.40 2.13 2.51 486.39 1.84 6.00 7.20 483.70 0.88 1.20 1009.10 548.29 1975 6.74 6.44 2.97 3.03 517.86 2.12 6.00 8.90 514.60 0.36 2.90 1679.78 792.33 1976 7.84 7.54 2.85 3.23 531.67 2.48 6.00 11.20 528.20 0.67 5.20 3105.26 1254.65 1977 8.95 8.65 3.80 4.08 564.28 3.15 7.00 12.05 559.90 0.58 5.05 3156.93 1001.82 1978 12.51 12.21 4.68 4.99 574.24 3.85 8.50 16.51 568.90 0.61 8.01 4909.74 1275.62 1979 14.01 13.71 5.86 6.27 662.97 4.53 10.00 18.51 656.20 0.71 8.51 6056.67 1337.44 1980 14.51 13.71 7.12 8.57 743.75 5.62 11.00 19.71 734.50 2.25 8.71 8072.09 1436.66 1981 16.47 15.27 9.58 11.27 810.71 6.67 15.00 21.87 798.60 2.89 6.87 7825.60 1173.59 1982 20.35 19.15 12.77 13.26 806.88 8.15 17.50 26.65 792.60 1.69 9.15 8618.78 1057.87 1983 28.10 20.50 19.64 17.27 812.80 10.04 23.29 34.85 793.90 5.23 11.56 13427.07 1337.77 1984 30.02 29.02 26.22 25.44 806.74 12.66 36.06 44.30 779.50 0.22 8.24 6601.68 521.34 TabLe E.3: CaLculations of Government Expenditure on Subsidies (contd) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------...................................... ..........WINE............. per unit subsidy TotaL subsidy YEAR P PW IC ICU 0 PN CP CPu C Product. Consumpt. Nominal Reat ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1960 2.84 2.54 0.63 0.55 1188.37 0.95 2.84 2.54 1187.70 0.22 -0.30 -97.10 -102.70 1961 3.34 2.46 0.63 0.55 1438.19 0.98 3.34 2.46 1437.50 0.80 -0.88 -115.86 -118.17 1962 2.54 2.67 0.61 0.53 2009.03 0.98 2.54 2.67 2008.40 -0.21 0.13 -161.43 -164.64 1963 2.22 2.87 0.62 0.54 1810.53 1.00 2.22 2.87 1809.90 -0.73 0.65 -137.03 -136.96 1964 2.22 2.94 0.62 0.54 2136.46 1.01 2.22 2.94 2135.80 -0.80 0.72 -161.70 -160.02 1965 2.18 3.04 0.63 0.53 2050.86 1.04 2.18 3.04 2050.20 -0.96 0.86 -196.42 -188.77 1966 2.98 3.20 0.65 0.55 1072.27 1.08 2.98 3.20 1071.60 -0.32 0.22 -102.57 -94.93 1967 4.01 4.17 0.62 0.52 1050.14 1.12 4.01 4.17 1049.50 -0.26 0.16 -100.30 -89.51 1968 3.77 5.20 0.63 0.54 1788.33 1.14 3.77 5.20 1787.70 -1.52 1.43 -162.96 -142.89 1969 4.96 5.42 0.63 0.54 1306.80 1.21 4.96 5.42 1306.20 -0.55 0.46 -118.68 -98.08 1970 4.38 7.25 0.63 0.52 1412.02 1.24 4.38 7.25 1411.40 -2.98 2.87 -162.70 -131.20 1971 5.22 7.93 0.62 0.51 1218.31 1.29 5.22 7.93 1217.70 -2.82 2.71 -136.79 -106.02 1972 6.20 9.46 0.62 0.51 1423.19 1.41 6.20 9.46 1422.60 -3.37 3.26 -161.99 -114.79 1973 7.23 10.92 0.61 0.48 1420.49 1.49 7.23 10.92 1419.90 -3.82 3.69 -188.28 -126.34 1974 5.51 12.93 0.81 0.65 2084.76 1.84 5.51 12.93 2083.90 -7.58 7.42 -332.90 -180.88 1975 6.39 9.96 0.90 0.69 683.73 2.12 6.39 9.96 682.80 -3.77 3.57 -142.34 -67.14 1976 8.32 11.75 0.87 0.72 1129.30 2.48 8.32 11.75 1128.30 -3.58 3.43 -178.38 -72.07 1977 15.12 19.69 1.22 0.97 693.90 3.15 15.12 19.69 692.60 -4.82 4.57 -177.05 -56.18 1978 30.63 21.77 1.52 1.31 793.74 3.85 30.63 21.77 792.10 8.65 -8.86 -152.74 -39.68 1979 15.76 30.35 1.81 1.51 1905.74 4.53 15.76 30.35 1903.70 -14.90 14.59 -613.11 -135.39 1980 18.25 38.38 2.13 1.90 1552.39 5.62 18.25 38.38 1550.00 -20.36 20.13 -405.14 -72.11 1981 30.07 25.92 2.80 2.50 1264.93 6.67 30.07 25.92 1261.70 3.85 -4.15 -365.23 -54.77 1982 26.70 34.72 3.85 3.33 1320.26 8.15 26.70 34.72 1316.10 -8.54 8.02 -720.15 -88.39 1983 30.49 29.54 5.31 4.52 1206.45 10.04 30.49 29.54 1201.10 0.16 -0.95 -946.53 -94.30 1984 36.01 39.66 7.35 6.03 1108.79 12.66 36.01 39.66 1101.80 -4.97 3.65 -1489.06 -117.59 Table E.1: Calculations of Government Expenditure on Subsidies .............................................................................................................. per unit subsidy Total subsidy YEAR . RICE........... P PW IC ICU Q PN CP CPU C Product. Consumpt. Nominal Real .............................................................................................................. 1960 2.61 2.56 2.04 2.04 151.20 0.95 2.61 2.56 147.39 0.05 -0.05 -0.14 -0.15 1961 2.72 2.63 2.04 2.05 177.40 0.98 2.72 2.63 188.94 0.10 -0.09 0.52 0.53 1962 2.74 4.11 1.97 1.99 173.50 0.98 2.74 4.11 166.72 -1.35 1.37 -6.43 -6.56 1963 2.80 2.88 2.01 2.08 166.30 1.00 2.80 2.88 191.43 -0.00 0.08 14.66 14.65 1964 2.96 2.83 2.01 2.08 181.40 1.01 2.96 2.83 178.31 0.21 -0.13 14.20 14.05 1965 3.01 2.48 2.03 2.10 138.80 1.04 3.01 2.48 162.36 0.61 -0.53 -1.94 -1.87 1966 3.22 2.92 2.08 2.15 154.00 1.08 3.22 2.92 196.45 0.38 -0.30 -1.04 -0.96 1967 3.34 3.18 2.00 2.08 146.00 1.12 3.34 3.18 166.97 0.24 -0.16 7.76 6.93 1968 3.55 3.25 2.03 2.16 149.00 1.14 3.55 3.25 191.44 0.44 -0.30 7.48 6.56 1969 3.63 2.72 2.02 2.16 175.80 1.21 3.63 2.72 216.87 1.05 -0.91 -13.51 -11.17 1970 3.71 2.90 2.05 2.13 194.70 1.24 3.71 2.90 199.63 0.89 -0.81 11.44 9.23 1971 3.79 4.33 2.00 2.10 161.60 1.29 3.79 4.33 159.39 *0.44 0.54 15.13 11.72 1972 3.62 2.60 2.02 2.11 163.90 1.41 3.62 2.60 190.60 1.10 -1.02 -13.72 -9.72 1973 3.62 4.38 2.00 2.09 167.60 1.49 3.62 4.38 165.28 -0.67 0.76 12.57 8.44 1974 5.03 8.20 2.57 2.85 129.50 1.84 5.03 8.20 138.09 -2.89 3.17 63.41 34.45 1975 6.17 6.98 3.05 3.05 132.70 2.12 6.17 6.98 181.14 -0.81 0.81 38.77 18.29 1976 6.82 6.84 3.04 3.39 97.20 2.48 6.82 6.84 190.07 0.32 0.02 35.35 14.28 1977 7.37 8.36 4.34 4.58 101.70 3.15 7.37 8.36 204.10 -0.75 0.99 125.91 39.96 1978 9.98 10.80 5.45 5.82 134.90 3.85 9.98 10.80 186.15 -0.45 0.82 91.47 23.77 1979 12.75 11.95 6.63 7.01 145.30 4.53 12.75 11.95 272.13 1.18 -0.80 -46.46 -10.26 1980 15.22 13.27 8.02 9.42 154.80 5.62 15.22 13.27 216.15 3.35 -1.95 97.10 17.28 1981 18.26 23.55 10.50 12.01 111.90 6.67 18.26 23.55 226.40 -3.78 5.29 774.81 116.20 1982 22.01 21.86 15.05 15.62 143.40 8.15 22.01 21.86 290.74 0.72 -0.15 59.27 7.27 1983 28.92 24.99 19.48 21.48 109.10 10.04 28.92 24.99 185.75 5.92 -3.93 -83.68 -8.34 1984 42.20 34.97 27.05 27.04 134.10 12.66 42.20 34.97 266.61 7.23 -7.23 -958.58 -75.70 Table E.2: Calculations of Government Expenditure on Subsidies (contd) per unit Total subsidy YEAR ............TOMATOES.............. subsidy on P PW IC ICU 0 PH CP CPW C Product. Consumpt. NominaL Real 1960 0.54 0.54 0.18 0.18 55.00 0.95 0.54 0.54 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.16 -0.17 1961 0.54 0.54 0.18 0.18 75.60 0.98 0.54 0.54 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.17 -0.17 1962 0.54 0.54 0.17 0.17 147.80 0.98 0.54 0.54 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.24 -0.25 1963 0.54 0.54 0.18 0.18 187.50 1.00 0.54 0.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.33 1964 0.54 0.54 0.18 0.18 263.00 1.01 0.54 0.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.46 0.46 1965 0.54 0.54 0.18 0.18 413.00 1.04 0.54 0.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.70 0.68 1966 0.54 0.54 0.18 0.18 515.00 1.08 0.54 0.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.84 0.78 1967 0.54 0.54 0.17 0.18 798.80 1.12 0.54 0.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.43 1.28 1968 0.54 0.54 0.18 0.18 866.80 1.14 0.54 0.54 0.00 0.01 0.00 4.49 3.94 1969 0.55 0.54 0.18 0.18 826.60 1.21 0.55 0.54 0.00 0.02 -0.01 12.57 10.39 1970 0.57 0.54 0.18 0.18 733.60 1.24 0.57 0.54 0.00 0.03 -0.03 23.74 19.15 1971 0.60 0.54 0.17 0.18 624.70 1.29 0.60 0.54 0.00 0.06 -0.06 40.07 31.05 1972 0.61 0.54 0.17 0.18 813.70 1.41 0.61 0.54 0.00 0.07 -0.07 59.44 42.12 0 1973 0.69 0.69 0.17 0.18 849.00 1.49 0.69 0.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.07 2.06 1974 1.44 0.89 0.22 0.23 714.40 1.84 1.44 0.89 0.00 0.56 -0.55 402.96 218.95 1975 1.41 1.00 0.27 0.27 826.10 2.12 1.41 1.00 0.00 0.41 -0.41 334.59 157.82 1976 1.36 1.22 0.25 0.29 493.20 2.48 1.36 1.22 0.00 0.18 -0.14 86.72 35.04 1977 1.47 1.47 0.35 0.38 665.80 3.15 1.47 1.47 0.00 0.03 0.00 18.57 5.89 1978 1.74 1.60 0.43 0.49 631.60 3.85 1.74 1.60 0.00 0.20 -0.14 128.19 33.30 1979 2.24 1.80 0.53 0.59 553.20 4.53 2.24 1.80 0.00 0.50 -0.44 278.55 61.51 1980 2.96 2.08 0.62 0.76 456.60 5.62 2.96 2.08 0.00 1.02 -0.88 465.73 82.89 1981 3.35 2.65 0.82 0.98 394.80 6.67 3.35 2.65 0.00 0.86 -0.70 338.68 50.79 1982 4.47 4.12 1.17 1.27 523.10 8.15 4.47 4.12 0.00 0.45 -0.35 234.48 28.78 1983 5.43 5.19 1.59 1.71 557.80 10.04 5.43 5.19 0.00 0.35 -0.24 197.97 19.72 01984 6.79 5.90 2.20 2.17 729.20 12.66 6.79 5.90 0.00 0.86 -0.89 627.17 49.53 Table E.3: Calculations of Government Expenditure on Subsidies (contd) per unit subsidy Total subsidy YEAR .............CORN.............. P Pu IC ICU 0 PM CP CPu C Product. Consumpt. Nominal Real 1960 2.25 1.62 0.99 0.98 466.40 0.95 2.25 1.62 446.75 0.63 -0.63 10.10 10.68 1961 2.07 1.87 0.99 0.99 632.00 0.98 2.07 1.87 634.13 0.20 -0.20 0.15 0.15 1962 2.14 1.90 0.95 0.96 598.90 0.98 2.14 1.90 590.53 0.25 -0.24 5.05 5.15 1963 2.15 1.80 0.97 1.01 523.40 1.00 2.15 1.80 570.99 0.39 -0.35 2.44 2.44 1964 2.12 1.82 0.97 1.01 596.50 1.01 2.12 1.82 647.60 0.34 -0.30 6.44 6.37 1965 2.63 1.95 0.99 1.02 458.60 1.04 2.63 1.95 507.71 0.72 -0.68 -16.71 -16.06 1966 2.49 1.99 1.01 1.05 564.70 1.08 2.49 1.99 823.70 0.54 -0.50 -109.00 -100.88 1967 2.43 1.96 0.97 1.01 576.80 1.12 2.43 1.96 752.14 0.51 -0.47 -61.27 -54.68 1968 2.46 1.97 0.99 1.06 547.90 1.14 2.46 1.97 934.83 0.56 -4.49 -152.41 -133.63 1969 2.43 1.94 0.98 1.05 552.60 1.21 2.43 1.94 918.71 0.56 -0.49 -141.86 -117.23 1970 2.34 2.18 0.98 1.02 581.40 1.24 2.34 2.18 873.70 0.20 -0.16 -22.49 -18.13 1971 2.77 2.07 0.94 1.00 526.40 1.29 2.77 2.07 1000.25 0.76 -0.70 -301.78 -233.89 I 1972 2.77 1.86 0.95 1.00 518.50 1.41 2.77 1.86 1265.75 0.96 -0.91 -655.60 -464.56 1973 2.62 2.62 0.95 1.00 508.60 1.49 2.62 2.62 1265.14 0.05 0.00 26.52 17.79 1974 3.88 4.99 1.16 1.31 485.50 1.84 3.70 4.99 1454.95 -0.96 1.29 1410.94 766.63 1975 5.36 4.12 1.66 1.65 451.30 2.12 3.70 4.12 1643.46 1.23 0.42 1246.16 587.80 1976 5.35 4.08 1.44 1.79 378.50 2.48 3.70 4.08 1558.26 1.62 0.38 1204.62 486.71 1977 6.38 4.51 1.99 2.27 441.90 3.15 4.20 4.51 1627.47 2.16 0.31 1457.04 462.38 1978 7.23 5.26 2.30 2.90 449.40 3.85 5.70 5.26 2105.22 2.57 -0.44 228.28 59.31 1979 8.32 6.78 2.95 3.57 461.40 4.53 6.70 6.78 2447.85 2.16 0.08 1191.27 263.06 1980 9.64 7.97 3.43 4.74 489.20 5.62 7.00 7.97 3008.11 2.98 0.97 4375.68 778.78 1981 12.78 11.05 4.63 6.12 376.70 6.67 9.50 11.05 2904.80 3.22 1.55 5715.76 857.18 1982 15.09 10.87 6.81 7.80 421.20 8.15 11.50 10.87 2740.19 5.21 -0.63 467.47 57-38 1983 23.73 16.82 9.37 10.58 424.40 10.04 16.07 16.82 2627.30 8.12 0.75 5416.83 539.69 1984 32.50 23.81 12.88 12.85 481.10 12.66 27.74 23.81 2393.10 8.66 -3.93 -5239.77 -413.79 Table E.1: Calculations of Government Expenditure on Subsidies ....................................................................................................... per unit subsidy Total subsidy YEAR ...........WHEAT............... P Pu IC ICU 0 PN CP CPU C Product. Consumpt. Nominal Real ....................................................................................................... 1960 2.97 2.01 1.69 1.69 493.85 0.95 2.82 2.01 502.02 0.96 -0.81 65.34 69.11 1961 2.97 2.03 1.69 1.70 431.41 0.98 2.82 2.03 586.93 0.95 -0.79 -54.64 -55.72 1962 2.97 2.07 1.64 1.65 646.69 0.98 2.82 2.07 791.10 0.92 -0.75 -0.38 -0.39 1963 3.02 2.00 1.67 1.75 593.76 1.00 2.87 2.00 677.58 1.10 -0.87 66.32 66.29 1964 3.02 2.16 1.67 1.75 473.70 1.01 2.87 2.16 635.97 0.94 -0.71 -4.13 -4.08 1965 3.24 1.86 1.69 1.77 614.11 1.04 3.08 1.86 810.12 1.46 -1.22 -89.04 -85.57 1966 3.26 2.04 1.72 1.81 313.83 1.08 3,10 2.04 622.57 1.30 -1.06 -250.58 -231.91 1967 3.26 2.13 1.66 1.74 638.95 1.12 3.10 2.13 830.98 1.21 -0.97 -29.92 -26.70 1968 3.26 1.92 1.69 1.84 749.32 1.14 3.10 1.92 874.61 1.49 -1.18 86.01 75.41 1969 3.26 1.75 1.68 1.83 455.36 1.21 3.10 1.75 705.70 1.66 -1.35 -195.82 -161.83 1970 3.26 2.08 1.68 1.77 549.94 1.24 3.10 2.08 823.44 1.27 -1.02 -140.84 -113.56 1971 3.55 1.86 1.63 1.75 795.41 1.29 3.80 1.86 866.91 1.81 -1.94 -243.02 -188.35 1972 3.55 2.20 1.65 1.75 605.98 1.41 3.80 2.20 679.57 1.45 -1.60 -209.97 -148.78 1973 3.55 3.98 1.64 1.75 518.59 1.49 3.80 3.98 610.87 -0.33 0.18 -58.95 -39.56 1974 4.26 5.71 2.01 2.33 536.00 1.84 3.80 5.71 791.49 -1.13 1.91 906.53 492.56 1975 4.94 5.39 2.82 2.81 604.13 2.12 4.50 5.39 825.81 -0.46 0.89 458.86 216.44 1976 4.94 4.76 2.56 3.10 688.86 2.48 4.40 4.76 872.11 0.71 0.36 806.45 325.84 1977 6.05 5.06 3.59 4.01 228.48 3.15 4.40 5.06 542.40 1.40 0.66 678.16 215.21 1978 7.59 6.14 4.29 5.05 254.99 3.85 6.00 6.14 858.39 2.22 0.14 685.07 177.99 1979 11.22 8.24 5.45 6.24 254.10 4.53 7.20 8.24 758.99 3.77 1.04 1747.29 385.84 1980 12.86 10.06 6.49 8.57 438.23 5.62 7.2Q 10.06 889.90 4.88 2.86 4683.69 833.60 1981 14.69 13.17 8.66 10.97 326.68 6.67 11.00 13.17 1163.97 3.83 2.17 3777.71 566.54 1982 17.93 13.69 12.82 14.06 439.29 8.15 16.40 13.69 1005.94 5.48 -2.71 -318.83 -39.13 1983 23.80 18.07 16.96 19.37 346.65 10.04 24.66 18.07 839.71 8.14 -6.59 -2712.74 -270.28 1984 34.94 24.24 23.41 23.39 488.94 12.66 29.40 24.24 1166.54 10.68 -5.16 -795.62 -62.83 Table E.2: Calculations ot Government Expenditure on Subsidies (contd) per unit Total subsidy YEAR ...........8EEF............ subsidy on P PW IC ICU 0 PM CP CPU C Product. Consuapt. Nominal Real 1960 20.38 15.01 21.34 20.70 40.30 0.95 20.38 15.01 39.33 4.73 *5.37 -20.64 -21.83 1961 20.47 13.97 21.76 21.64 44.40 0.98 20.47 13.97 42.90 6.38 -6.50 4.38 4.46 1962 20.46 13.78 22.45 22.36 50.20 0.98 20.46 13.78 48.87 6.58 -6.68 3.98 4.06 1963 22.20 13.97 23.52 23.92 46.80 1.00 22.20 13.97 45.99 8.64 -8.23 25.83 25.81 1964 24.48 19.91 25.22 25.63 42.90 1.01 24.48 19.91 46.31 4.98 -4.57 1.94 1.92 1965 .24.23 20.03 26.06 26.04 58.10 1.04 24.23 20.03 60.97 4.19 -4.20 -12.68 -12.19 1966 27.62 20.16 26.35 26.54 60.50 1.08 27.62 20.16 61.06 7.64 -7.46 6.97 6.45 1967 29.67 18.76 25.98 26.19 49.90 1.12 29.67 18.76 50.32 11.12 -10.91 5.79 5.16 1968 29.67 16.54 26.70 27.53 57.90 1.14 29.67 16.54 58.54 13.97 -13.13 40.04 35.11 1969 30.13 17.43 26.72 27.55 79.20 1.21 30.13 17.43 79.91 13.53 -12.70 56.68 46.84 1970 31.54 21.50 26.64 27.11 87.20 1.24 31.54 21.50 88.85 10.52 -10.04 24.86 20.04 1971 36.69 25.62 26.69 26.23 74.20 1.29 36.69 25.62 76.35 10.61 -11.07 -57.77 -44.78 1972 39.56 27.44 26.98 25.83 73.00 1.41 39.56 27.44 73.96 10.97 -12.12 -95.50 -67.67 1973 53.60 31.34 27.47 28.47 81.20 1.49 53.60 31.34 81.58 23.26 -22.26 72.70 48.78 1974 61.81 40.02 32.07 37.90 84.30 1.84 61.81 40.02 84.77 27.62 -21.79 481.38 261.55 1975 70.65 31.47 44.12 45.18 97.70 2.12 70.65 31.47 96.83 40.23 -39.18 136.90 64.57 1976 85.12 33.32 42.28 47.76 79.30 2.48 85.12 33.32 79.16 57.28 -51.80 441.71 178.47 1977 113.30 42.79 52.68 56.75 77.40 3.15 113.30 42.79 79.10 74.59 -70.51 195.26 61.96 1978 130.83 53.77 66.62 71.09 88.10 3.85 130.83 53.77 90.80 81.53 -77.06 185.96 48.31 1979 182.03 84.93 84.90 90.88 89.00 4.53 182.03 84.93 93.20 103.08 -97.10 124.45 27.48 1980 217.50 109.72 96.07 116.56 97.30 5.62 217.50 109.72 97.45 128.27 -107.78 1977.77 352.00 1981 216.06 128.14 129.03 152.76 113.80 6.67 216.06 128.14 114.86 111.65 -87.92 2607.15 390.99 1982 239.70 162.32 175.08 182.28 116.70 8.15 239.70 162.32 120.36 84.58 -77.38 557.40 68.42 1983 360.00 197.44 267.18 290.07 102.00 10.04 360.00 197.44 104.06 185.45 -162.56 1999.59 199.22 1984 435.87 302.33 355.21 344.76 92.60 12.66 435.87 302.33 93.87 123.10 -133.54 -1136.79 -89.77 Table E.3: Calculations of Government Expenditure on Subsidies (contd) ............................... ............ ................. ................................... ................. .. per unit subsidy Total subsidy YEAR ........................SHEEP............. P PW IC ICU a PN CP CPU C Product. Consumpt. Nominal Real ................................................................................................................... 1960 40.23 37.60 37.59 37.03 18.80 0.95 40.23 37.60 21.35 2.07 -2.63 -17.24 -18.23 1961 40.88 35.80 37.93 38.02 18.90 0.98 40.88 35.80 21.13 5.17 -5.08 -9.64 -9.83 1962 39.54 35.67 38.20 38.45 19.30 0.98 39.54 35.67 22.59 4.12 -3.87 -7.92 -8.08 1963 49.67 42.94 39.43 41.24 19.10 1.00 49.67 42.94 23.02 8.54 -6.73 8.13 8.13 1964 63.03 54.68 40.88 42.69 22.50 1.01 63.03 54.68 19.56 10.16 -8.35 65.24 64.56 1965 57.27 51.10 42.06 43.50 25.60 1.04 57.27 51.10 19.94 7.61 -6.17 71.84 69.04 1966 65.42 53.21 43.01 44.62 26.10 1.08 65.42 53.21 20.69 13.81 -12.21 107.89 99.86 1967 66.51 52.40 42.29 43.91 21.60 1.12 66.51 52.40 20.77 15.73 -14.11 46.78 41.75 1968 63.38 48.59 42.82 46.13 17.50 1.14 63.38 48.59 24.50 18.09 -14.79 -45.77 -40.13 1969 78.97 58.36 43.08 46.38 18.40 1.21 78.97 58.36 23.94 23.90 -20.61 -53.59 -44.29 1970 77.78 59.43 42.94 44.86 19.20 1.24 77.78 59.43 25.37 20.27 -18.35 -76.31 -61.53 1971 102.67 76.65 42.98 44.51 18.00 1.29 102.67 76.65 19.40 27.55 -26.02 -8.79 -6.82 1972 117.22 89.61 44.00 44.56 18.00 1.41 117.22 89.61 16.11 28.18 -27.61 62.50 44.29 1973 144.14 109.18 46.01 48.50 19.90 1.49 144.14 109.18 20.11 37.45 -34.96 42.02 28.19 1974 178.86 141.42 53.52 64.05 18.20 1.84 178.86 141.42 20.09 47.97 -37.44 120.94 65.71 1975 217.50 164.59 76.27 77.23 17.80 2.12 217.50 164.59 19.35 53.87 -52.91 -64.77 -30.55 1976 242.88 178.93 72.69 84.06 18.60 2.48 242.88 178.93 18.40 75.33 -63.95 224.42 90.68 1977 291.37 221.92 96.51 104.77 19.90 3.15 291.37 221.92 15.48 77.71 -69.45 471.13 149.51 1978 309.25 240.90 117.06 127.96 18.60 3.85 309.25 240.90 19.01 79.24 -68.35 174.90 45.44 1979 411.31 319.11 149.24 161.76 18.50 4.53 411.31 319.11 16.57 104.72 -92.20 409.89 90.51 1980 469.21 396.98 176.01 220.54 20.10 5.62 469.21 396.98 19.38 116.76 -72.23 947.05 168.56 1981 401.17 383.28 234.37 283.98 19.70 6.67 401.17 383.28 18.69 67.50 -17.89 995.34 149.27 1982 508.15 467.68 330.43 347.64 21.50 8.15 508.15 467.68 18.30 57.67 -40.47 499.46 61.30 1983 613.26 527.98 457.23 514.66 22.80 10.04 613.26 527.98 19.24 142.71 -85.28 1612.96 160.70 1984 757.30 718.41 617.96 608.53 21.90 12.66 757.30 718.41 17.50 29.46 -38.89 -35.44 -2.80 ANNEX F Estimation of Effects of Price Interventions on Transfers to and from the Agricultural Sector - 256 - Estimation of Effects of Price Interventions on Transfers The estimation of transfer effects by commodity was calculated as the appropriate per unit policy effect times the quantity produced of the commodity. Four separate measures were calculated, in each case using (a) output and input price changes and (b) value added changes. The formulae used were as follows: a) price measures DTN - (P-PW).Q - (lC-1CW).Q TTN - (P-PW*).Q - (lC-1CW*).Q DTR - DTN. 100/CPI TTR = TTN. 100/CPI b) value added measures DTN - (VA - VAl).Q TTN - (VA - VAl*).Q DTR - DTN. 100/CPI TTR = TTN . 100/CPI where P is the actual producer price PW is the price in the absence of direct price policies PW* is the price in the absence of direct and indirect price policies Q is the observed output of the commodity IC is the actual cost of inputs ICW is the cost of inputs in the absence of direct input price policies 1Cl* is the cost of ipputs in the absence of direct and indirect price policies VA is the valued added at actual prices VA1 is the value added in the absence of direct price policies on both inputs and outputs VAl* is the value added in the absence of direct and indirqct price policies CPI is the consumer price index Table Fi: Calculation of transfer effects YEAR ..................................................................PT0S........ YEAR ......... POTATO)ES .......... 0 p PW PW* P-PU P-PW* DTFN TTFN DTFR TTFR 1960 1041.30 1.15 1.15 1.03 0.00 0.12 0 122 0 127 1961 1055.60 1.10 1.10 1.05 0.00 0.05 0 56 0 58 1962 893.50 1.40 1.40 1.32 0.00 0.08 0 70 0 72 1963 1144.80 1.15 1.15 1.16 0.00 -0.01 0 -12 0 -12 1964 1143.40 1.10 1.10 1.00 0.00 0.10 0 115 0 113 1965 888.00 1.70 1.70 1.57 0.00 0.13 0 119 0 113 1966 923.30 2.01 2.01 1.88 0.00 0.13 0 123 0 110 1967 1295.70 1.13 1.13 1.00 0.00 0.13 0 163 0 144 1968 1083.10 1.24 1.24 1.23 0.00 0.01 0 14 0 12 1969 1126.40 1.71 1.71 1.77 0.00 -0.06 0 -63 0 -51 1970 1220.00 1.25 1.25 1.26 0.00 -0.01 0 -7 0 -6 ??71 1123.90 1.61 1.61 1.63 0.00 -0.02 0 -20 0 -14 1972 1138.90 2.17 2.17 2.16 0.00 0.01 0 7 0 5 1973 1086.20 2.42 2.42 2.49 .0.00 -0.07 0 -76 0 -47 1974 1114.50 2.98 2.98 3.07 0.00 -0.09 0 -98 0 -50 1975 1012.40 4.38 4.38 4.61 0.00 -0.23 0 -235 0 -102 1976 918.10 6.34 6.34 6.79 0.00 -0.45 0 -413 0 -151 1977 1200.60 6.28 6.28 7.32 0.00 -1.04 0 -1245 0 -357 1978 1127.80 4.43 4.43 5.01 0.00 -0.58 0 -656 0 -154 1979 1020.60 9.28 9.28 8.91 0.00 0.37 0 381 0 72 1980 1117.90 8.10 8.10 8.97 0.00 -0.87 0 -977 0 -158 1981 829.20 11.34 11.34 12.53 0.00 -1.19 0 -987 0 -134 1982 982.80 14.46 14.46 16.66 0.00 -2.20 0 -2158 0 -240 1983 905.30 17.01 17.01 19.46 0.00 -2.45 0 -2216 0 -197 1984 1038.00 26.76 26.76 29.67 0.00 -2.91 0 -3022 0 -210 table : Calculation of transfer effects. contd. YEAR ...........MILK............ Qx PX PX PXM* PX-PX1 PX-PX* DTXN TTXN DTXR TTXR 1960 329.10 2.00 2.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 1961 355.90 1.91 1.91 1.91 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 1962 345.10 1.91 1.97 1.97 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 1963 351.10 2.07 2.07 2.07 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 1964 320.00 2.33 2.33 2.33 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 1965 365.70 2.26 2.26 2.26 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 1966 356.80 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 1967 348.20 3.10 2.60 2.60 0.50 0.50 174 174 952 952 1968 404.30 3.10 2.60 2.60 0.50 0.50 202 202 1053 1053 1969 444.10 3.10 2.60 2.60 0.50 0.50 222 222 1105 1105 1970 458.10 3.10 2.60 2.60 0.50 0.50 229 229 1109 1109 1971 432.70 3.50 3.20 3.20 0.30 0.30 130 130 584 584 1972 446.50 3.60 3.20 3.20 0.40 0.40 179 179 758 758 0o 1973 462.10 3.60 3.20 3.20 0.40 0.40 185 185 719 719 1974 483.70 4.90 4.40 4.40 0.50 0.50 242 242 757 757 1975 514.60 6.74 6.44 6.44 0.30 0.30 154 154 416 416 1976 528.20 7.84 7.54 7.54 0.30 0.30 158 158 358 358 1977 559.90 8.95 8.65 8.65 0.30 0.30 168 168 297 297 1978 568.90 12.51 12.21 12.21 0.30 0.30 171 171 248 248 1979 656.20 14.01 13.71 13.71 0.30 0.30 197 197 230 230 1980 734.50 14.51 13.71 13.71 0.80 0.80 588 588 588 588 1981 798.60 16.47 15.27 15.27 1.20 1.20 958 958 804 804 1982 792.60 20.35 19.15 19.15 1.20 1.20 951 951 655 655 1983 793.90 28.10 20.50 20.50 7.60 7.60 6034 6034 3320 3320 1984 779.50 30.02 29.02 29.02 1.00 1.00 780 780 334 334 lable A: Calculation of transfer effects, contd. ......................... .................................................. YEAR .................UINE.................... 00 PD PD1 P01* PD-PD1 PD-PD* DTDN TTON DTDR TTDR ................. ... .. ..................................................... 1960 1187.70 2.84 2.54 2.36 0.30 0.48 356 566 2292 3641 1961 1437.50 3.34 2.46 2.43 0.88 0.91 1265 1314 8089 8402 1962 2008.40 2.54 2.67 2.60 -0.13 -0.06 -261 -124 -1663 -787 1963 1809.90 2.22 2.87 2.98 -0.65 -0.76 -1176 -1369 -7276 -8464 1964 2135.80 2.22 2.94 2.75 -0.72 -0.53 -1538 -1141 -9378 -6956 1965 2050.20 2.18 3.04 2.90 -0.86 -0.72 -1763 -1481 -10342 -8689 1966 1071.60 2.98 3.20 3.09 -0.22 -0.11 -236 *117 -1310 -650 1967 1049.50 4.01 4.17 3.81 -0.16 0.20 -168 215 -918 1174 1968 1787.70 3.77 5.20 5.24 -1.43 -1.47 -2556 -2634 -13320 -13724 1969 1306.20 4.96 5.42 5.69 -0.46 -0.73 -601 -958 -2991 -4769 1970 1411.40 4.38 7.25 7.40 -2.87 -3.02 -4051 -4265 -19621 -20658 1971 1217.70 5.22 7.93 8.13 -2.71 -2.91 -3300 -3547 -14854 -15965 1972 1422.60 6.20 9.46 9.55 -3.26 -3.35 -4638 -4762 -19676 -20204 1973 1419.90 7.23 10.92 11.37 -3.69 -4.14 -5239 -5877 -20377 -22859 1974 2083.90 5.51 12.93 13.50 -7.42 -7.99 -15463 -16647 -48396 -52103 1975 682.80 6.39 9.96 10.70 -3.57 -4.31 -2438 -2940 -6568 -7921 1976 1128.30 8.32 11.75 12.84 -3.43 -4.52 -3870 -5095 -8736 -11502 1977 692.60 15.12 19.69 23.27 -4.57 -8.15 -3165 -5648 -5604 -9999 1978 792.10 30.63 21.77 25.01 8.86 5.62 7018 4453 10197 6471 1979 1903.70 15.76 30.35 29.61 -14.59 -13.85 -27775 -26372 -32459 -30820 1980 1550.00 18.25 38.38 43.06 -20.13 -24.81 -31201 -38458 -31201 -38458 1981 1261.70 30.07 25.92 29.33 4.15 0.74 5236 940 4395 789 1982 1316.10 26.70 34.72 40.82 -8.02 -14.12 -10555 -18587 -7274 -12809 1983 1201.10 30.49 29.54 34.80 0.95 -4.31 1141 -5173 628 -2847 1984 1101.80 36.01 39.66 45.26 -3.65 -9.25 -4022 -10193 -1725 -4373 Table p1: CaLcutation of transfer effects ... ..................................................................... YEAR rice QF PF PF1 PF1* PF-PF1 PF-PF* DTFN TTFN DTFR TTFR . ... ........ ......... .................................................. 1960 151.20 2.61 2.56 2.31 0.05 0.30 8 45 8 47 1961 177.40 2.72 2.63 2.51 0.09 0.21 16 37 17 38 1962 173.50 2.74 4.11 3.89 -1.37 -1.15 -238 -199 -245 -205 1963 166.30 2.80 2.88 2.91 -0.08 -0.11 -13 -18 -13 -18 1964 181.40 2.96 2.83 2.58 0.13 0.38 24 68 23 67 1965 138.80 3.01 2.48 2.29 0.53 0.72 74 99 70 94 1966 154.00 3.22 2.92 2.74 0.30 0.48 46 75 41 67 1967 146.00 3.34 3.18 2.84 0.16 0.50 23 73 21 65 1968 149.00 3.55 3.25 3.22 0.30 0.33 45 50 38 42 1969 175.80 3.63 2.72 2.80 0.91 0.83 160 146 129 117 1970 194.70 3.71 2.90 2.91 0.81 0.80 158 156 124 122 1971 161.60 3.79 4.33 4.37 -0.54 -0.58 -87 -94 -64 -68 1972 163.90 3.62 2.60 2.59 1.02 1.03 167 169 115 116 1973 167.60 3.62 4.38 4.50 -0.76 -0.88 -127 -147 -80 -92 C 1974 129.50 5.03 8.20 8.44 -3.17 -3.41 -411 -442 -208 -224 1975 132.70 6.17 6.98 7.35 -0.81 -1.18 -107 -156 -47 -68 1976 97.20 6.82 6.84 7.32 -0.02 -0.50 -2 -49 -1 -18 1977 101.70 7.37 8.36 9.69 -0.99 -2.32 -101 -236 -29 -68 1978 134.90 9.98 10.80 12.16 -0.82 -2.18 -111 -294 -26 -69 1979 145.30 12.75 11.95 11.50 0.80 1.25 116 182 22 34 1980 154.80 15.22 13.27 14.63 1.95 0.59 302 91 49 15 1981 111.90 18.26 23.55 25.97 -5.29 -7.71 -592 -863 -80 -117 1982 143.40 22.01 21.86 25.07 0.15 -3.06 22 -440 2 -49 1983 109.10 28.92 24.99 28.43 3.93 0.49 429 54 38 5 1984 134.10 42.20 34.97 38.60 7.23 3.60 970 483 67 34 Table 14: Catcutation of transfer effects, contd. YEAR tomiatocs 4X PX PX1 PX1* PX-PX PX-PX* DTXN TTXN DTXR TTXR 1960 55.00 0.54 0.54 0.48 0.00 0.06 0 3 0 19 1961 75.60 0.54 0.54 0.51 0.00 0.03 0 2 0 13 1962 147.80 0.54 0.54 0.51 0.00 0.03 0 4 0 29 1963 187.50 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.00 -0.00 0 -1 0 -6 1964 263.00 0.54 0.54 0.49 0.00 0.05 0 13 0 79 1965 413.00 0.54 0.54 0.50 0.00 0.04 0 18 0 103 1966 515.00 0.54 0.54 0.50 0.00 0.04 0 18 0 102 1967 798.80 0.54 0.54 0.48 0.00 0.06 0 48 0 263 1968 866.80 0.54 0.54 0.53 0.00 0.01 0 5 0 26 1969 826.60 0.55 0.54 0.56 0.01 -0.01 8 -6 41 -32 1970 733.60 0.57 0.54 0.54 0.03 0.03 22 20 107 98 1971 624.70 0.60 0.54 0.55 0.06 0.05 37 34 169 152 1972 813.70 0.61 0.54 0.54 0.07 0.07 57 58 242 247 1973 849.00 0.69 0.69 0.71 0.00 -0.02 0 -17 0 -65 1974 714.40 1.44 0.89 0.92 0.55 0.52 393 374 1230 1171 1975 826.10 1.41 1.00 1.05 0.41 0.36 339 295 913 795 1976 493.20 1.36 1.22 1.31 0.14 0.05 69 26 156 59 1977 665.80 1.47 1.47 1.71 0.00 -0.24 0 -162 0 -286 1978 631.60 1.74 1.60 1.81 0.14 -0.07 88 -44 128 -64 1979 553.20 2.24 1.80 1.73 0.44 0.51 243 284 284 331 .1980 456.60 2.96 2.08 2.30 0.88 0.66 402 299 402 299 1981 394.80 3.35 2.65 2.93 0.70 0.42 276 167 232 140 1982 523.10 4.47 4.12 4.75 0.35 -0.28 183 -144 126 -99 1983 557.80 5.43 5.19 5.94 0.24 -0.51 134 -283 74 -156 1984 729.20 6.79 5.90 6.54 0.89 0.25 '649 181 278 78 Table 11: Calculation of transfer effects, contd. YEAR corn 00 PD PD1 PD1* P0-PD1 PD-PD* DTON TTON DTOR TTDR .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... .............................. 1960 466.40 2.25 1.62 1.47 0.63 0.78 294 363 1890 2338 1961 632.00 2.07 1.87 1.79 0.20 0.28 126 175 80 1122 1962 598.90 2.14 1.90 1.80 0.24 0.34 144 202 915 1281 1963 523.40 2.15 1.80 1.82 0.35 0.33 183 175 1133 1082 1964 596.50 2.12 1.82 1.67 0.30 0.45 179 270 1091 1645 1965 458.60 2.63 1.95 1.81 0.68 0.82 312 376 1829 2205 1966 564.70 2.49 1.99 1.87 0.50 0.62 282 351 1569 1948 1967 576.80 2.43 1.96 1.76 0.47 0.67 271 388 1483 2123 1968 547.90 2.46 1.97 1.95 0.49 0.51 268 280 1399 1459 1969 552.60 2.43 1.94 1.99 0.49 0.44 271 242 1348 1206 1970 581.40 2.34 2.18 2.19 0.16 0.15 93 89 451 432 1971 526.40 2.77 2.07 2.09 0.70 0.68 368 360 1659 1620 1 1972 518.50 2.77 1.86 1.85 0.91 0.92 472 478 2002 2030 1973 508.60 2.62 2.62 2.68 0.00 -0.06 0 -32 0 -125 1974 485.50 3.88 4.99 5.14 -1.11 -1.26 -539 -611 -1687 -1912 1975 451.30 5.36 4.12 4.33 1.24 1.03 560 463 1508 1246 1976 378.50 5.35 4.08 4.36 1.27 0.99 481. 374 1085 844 1977 441.90 6.38 4.51 5.20 1.87 1.18 826 522 1463 924 1978 449.40 7.23 5.26 5.88 1.97 1.35 885 606 1286 881 1979 461.40 8.32 6.78 6.54 1.54 1.78 711 820 830 959 1980 489.20 9.64 7.97 8.75 1.67 0.89 817 436 817 436 1981 376.70 12.78 11.05 12.15 1.73 0.63 652 239 547 200 1982 421.20 15.09 10.87 12.39 4.22 2.70 1777 1137 1225 781 1983 424.40 23.73 16.82 19.05 6.91 4.68 2933 1988 1614 1094 1984 481.10 32.50 23.81 26.18 8.69 6.32 4181 3040 1794 1304 Table rl: Calculation of transfer effects YEAR wheat OF PF PF1 PFI* PF-PF1 PF-PF* DTFM TTFN DTFR TTFR 1960 492.10 2.97 2.01 1.82 0.96 . 1.15 472 567 491 589 1 1961 429.60 2.97 2.03 1.94 0.94 1.03 404 441 418 456 1 1962 645.00 2.97 2.07 1.96 0.90 1.01 581 651 598 670 1963 592.00 3.02 2.00 2.02 1.02 1.00 604 593 604 593 1964 471.90 3.02 2.16 1.97 0.86 1.05 406 493 400 486 1965 612.30 3.24 1.86 1.72 1.38 1.52 845 929 801 881 1966 312.00 3.26 2.04 1.91 1.22 1.35 381 420 342 377 1967 637.20 3.26 2.13 1.91 1.13 1.35 720 863 637 763 1968 747.50 3.26 1.92 1.90 1.34 1.36 1002 1017 844 857 1969 453.60 3.26 1.75 1.80 1.51 1.46 685 663 551 534 1970 548.20 3.26 2.08 2.09 1.18 1.17 647 643 507 504 1971 793.70 3.55 1.86 1.88 1.69 1.67 1341 1329 976 967 1972 604.30 3.55 2.20 2.19 1.35 1.36 816 823 560 565 1973 516.90 3.55 3.98 4.08 -0.43 -0.53 -222 -276 -140 -174 1974 533.60 4.26 5.71 5.88 -1.45 -1.62 -t74 -86 -392 -437 1975 601.20 4.94 5.39 5.67 -0.45 -0.73 -271 -440 *118 -192 1976 685.60 4.94 4.76 5.09 0.18 -0.15 123 -104 45 -38 1977 224.30 6.05 5.06 5.85 0.99 0.20 222 45 64 13 1978 249.90 7.59 6.14 6.89 1.45, 0.70 362 175 85 41 1979 247.80 .11.22 8.24 7.94 2.98 3.28 738 814 140 154 1980 429.50 12.86 10.06 11.08 2.80 1.78 1203 765 194 124 1981 315.20 14.69 13.17 14.50 1.52 0.19 479 60 65 8 1982 424.50 17.93 13.69 15.66 4.24 2.27 1800 962 201 107 1983 326.80 23.80 18.07 20.51 5.73 3.29 1873 1075 167 96 1984 465.60 34.94 24.24 26.70 10.70 8.24 4982 3838 346 266 Table Ig: Calculation of transfer effects, contd. . . . . .. . . . .. .. . .... . . . . . .. . . . . . .. ............ . -. .................... YEAR beef oX PX PX1 PX1* PX-PX1 PX-PX* DTXN TTXN DTXR TIXR . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . . . . -- - - - - - - . - - - --------------------- ------- 1960 40.30 20.38 15.01 13.87 5.37 6.51 216 262 1392 1686 1961 44.40 20.47 13.97 13.61 6.50 6.86 289 305 1845 1947 1962 50.20 20.46 13.78 13.24 6.68 7.22 335 363 2135 2309 1963 46.80 22.20 13.97 14.08 8.23 8.12 385 380 . 2382 2350 1964 4 .90 24.48 19.91 18.45 4.57 6.03 196 259 1196 1577 1965 58.10 24.23 20.03 18.78 4.20 5.45 244 317 1431 1857 1966 60.50 27.62 20.16 19.09 7.46 8.53 451 516 2507 2867 1967 49.90 29.67 ,18.76 17.06 10.91 12.61 544 629 2978 3442 1968 57.90 29.67 16'.54 16.36 13.13 13.31 760 770 3961 4014 1969 79.20 30.13 17.43 17.72 12.70 12.41 1006 983 5007 4894 1970 87.20 31.54 21.50 21.52 10.04 10.02 875 874 4241 4234 1971 74.20 36.69 25.62 25.75 11.07 10.94 821 811 3697 3653 1972 73.00 39.56 27.44 27.18 12.12 12.38 885 904 3754 3834 1973 81.20 53.60 31.34 31.95 22.26 21.65 1808 1758 7030 6838 1974 84.30 61.81 40.02 41.21 21.79 20.60 1837 1737 5749 5435 1975 97.70 70.65 31.47 33.06 39.18 37.59 3828 3673 10314 9896 1976 79.30 85.12 33.32 35.51 51.80 49.61 4108 3934 9272 8880 1977 77.40 113.30 42.79 48.45 70.51 64.85 5457 5020 9662 8887 1978 88.10 130.83 53.77 59.12 77.06 71.71 6789 '6318 9864 9180 1979 89.00 182.03 84.93 82.38 97.10 99.65 8642 8869 10099 10364 1980 97.30 217.50 109.72 119.54 107.78 97.96 10487 9531 10487 9531 1981 113.80 216.06 128.14 140.03 87.92 76.03 10005 8652 8398 7262 1982 116.70 239.70 162.32 183.76 77.38 55.94 9030 6528 6223 4499 1983 102.00 360.00 197.44 220.99 162.56 139.01 16581 14179 9125 7802 1984 92.60 435.87 302.33 329.76 133.54 106.11 12366 9826 5305 4215 Table f): Calculation of transfer effects, contd. YEAR sheep O PD P01 P01* PD-PD1 PD-PD* DTON TTDN DTOR TTOR 1960 18.80 40.23 37.60 40.58 2.63 -0.35 49 -7 318 -42 1961 18.90 40.88 35.80 39.59 5.08 1.29 96 24 614 156 1962 19.30 39.54 35.67 37.59 3.87 1.95 75 38 476 239 1963 19.10 49.67 42.94 43.04 6.73 6.63 129 127 795 783 1964 22.50 63.03 54.68 58.69 8.35 4.34 188 98 1146 595 1965 25.60 57.27 51.10 54.39 6.17 2.88 158 74 926 433 1966 26.10 65.42 53.21. 55.99 12.21 9.43 319 246 1770 1368 1967 21.60 66.51 52.40 55.87 14.11 10.64 305 230 1667 1257 1968 17.50 63.38 48.59 48.10 14.79 15.28 259 267 1349 1393 1969 18.40 78.97 58.36 52.96 20.61 26.01 379 479 1888 2383 1970 19.20 77.78 59.43 57.60 18.35 20.18 352 387 1707 1877 1971 18.00 102.67 76.65 73.17 26.02 29.50 468 531 2108 2391 1972 18.00 117.22 89.61 83.54 27.61 33.68 497 606 2109 2572 1973 19.90 144.14 109.18 101.63 34.96 42.51 696 846 2706 3290 1974 18.20 178.86 141.42 145.75 37.44 33.11 681 603 2133 1886 1975 17.80 217.50 164.59 170.34 52.91 47.16 942 839 2538 2262 1976 18.60 242.88 178.93 185.60 63.95 57.28 1189 1065 2685 2405 1977 19.90 291.37 221.92 212.21 69.45 79.16 1382 1575 2447 2789 1978 18.60 309.25 240.90 223.47 68.35 85.78 1271 1595 1847 2318 1979 18.50 411.31 319.11 332.93 92.20 78.38 1706 1450 1993 1695 1980 20.10 469.21 396.98 379.28 72.23 89.93 1452 1808 1452 1808 1981 19.70 401.17 383.28 389.54 17.89 11.63 352 229 296 192 1982 21.50 508.15 467.68 466.32 40.47 41.83 870 899 600 620 1983 22.80 613.26 527.98 497.74 85.28 115.52 1944 2634 1070 1449 1984 21.90 757.30 718.41 677.08 38.89 80.22 852 1757 365 754 Table Calculation of Transfer effects... input subsidy effects ....................................................................... ....... YEAR sheep 00 ICD ICD1 ICD* ICD-ICD1 ICD-ICD* DTON TTON DTDR TTDR . .. .. .. ........ ... ... .... ........... .............. ..... ... .... .. .. ...... . 1960 18.8 37.59 37.03 41.61 0.57 -4.02 11 -75 68 -486 1 1961 18.9 37.93 38.02 42.08 -0.09 -4.14 -2 -78 *10 -501 1 1962 19.3 38.20 38.45 42.55 -0.25 -4.35 -5 -84 -31 -535 1963 19.1 39.43 41.24 45.16 -1.81 -5.73 -35 -109 -214 -677 1964 22.5 40.88 42.69 47.25 -1.81 -6.37 -41 -143 -248 -875 1965 25.6 42.06 43.50 48.05 -1.44 -5.99 -37 -153 -217 -900 1966 26.1 43.01 44.62 49.20 -1.60 -6.19 -42 -161 -233 -897 1967 21.6 42.29 43.91 48.66 -1.62 -6.38 -35 -138 -192 -753 1968 17.5 42.82 46.13 50.41 -3.30 -7.59 -58 -133 -301 -692 1969 18.4 43.08 46.38 50.24 -3.29 -7.16 -61 -132 -302 -656 1970 19.2 42.94 44.86 48.74 -1.92 -5.81 -37 -111 -179 -540 1971 18 42.98 44.51 48.32 -1.53 -5.34 -28 -96 -124 -433 1972 18 44.00 44.56 48.32 -0.57 -4.32 -10 -78 -43 -330 1973 19.9 46.01 48.50 52.04 -2.49 -6.02 -49 -120 -192 -466 I 1974 18.2 53.52 64.05 69.29 -10.53 -15.77 -192 -287 -600 -898 1975 17.8 76.27 77.23 83.51 -0.96 -7.24 -17 -129 -46 -347 1976 18.6 72.69 84,06 90.63 -11.38 -17.94 -212 -334 -478 -753 1977 19.9 96.51 104.77 112.63 -8.26 -16.12 -164 -321 -291 -568 1978 18.6 117.06 127.96 137.86 -10.89 -20.80 -203 -387 -294 -562 1979 18.5 149.24 161.76 177.14 -12.52 -27.90 -232 -516 -271 -603 1980 20.1 176.01 220.54 240.48 -44.53 -64.47 -895 -1296 -895 -1296 1981 19.7 234.37 283.98 306.87 -49.61 -72.49 -977 -1428 -820 -1199 1982 21.5 330.43 347.64 375.79 -17.20 -45.36 -370 -975 -255 -672 1983 22.8 457.23 514.66 560.81 -57.43 -103.58 -1309 -2362 -720 -1300 1984 21.9 617.96 608.53 661.83 9.43 -43.87 206 -961 89 -412 Table r2: CaLcutation of transfer effects, contd. YEAR beef OK PX PX1 PX1* PX-PX1 PX-PX* DTXN TTXN DTXR TTXR . .. .. . . .... . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . . . . . .... .......................... 1960 40.30 20.38 15.01 13.87 5.37 6.51 216 262 225 273 1961 44.40 20.47 13.97 13.61 6.50 6.86 289 305 299 315 1962 50.20 20.46 13.78 13.24 6.68 7.22 335 363 34 373 1963 46.80 22.20 13.97 14.08 8.23 8.12 385 380 385 380 1964 42.90 24.48 19.91 18.45 4.57 6.03 196 259 193 255 1965 58.10 24.23 20.03 18.78 4.20 5.45 244 317 231 300 1966 60.50 27.62 20.16 19.09 7.46 8.53 451 516 405 464 1967 49.90 29.67 18.76 17.06 10.91 12.61 544 629 481 557 1968 57.90 29.67 16.54 16.36 13.13 13.31 760 770 640 649 1969 79.20 30.13 17.43 17.72 12.70 12.41 1006 983 810 791 1970 87.20 31.54 21.50 21.52 10.04 10.02 875 874 686 685 1971 74.20 36.69 25.62 25.75 11.07 10.94 821 811 598 591 1972 73.00 39.56 27.44 27.18 12.12 12.38 885 904 607 620 1973 81.20 53.60 31.34 31.95 22.26 21.65 1808 1758 1137 1106 1974 84.30 61.81 40.02 41.21 21.79 20.60 1837 1737 930 879 1975 97.70 70.65 31.47 33.06 39.18 37.59 3828 3673 1668 1600 1976 - 79.30 85.12 33.32 35.51 51.80 49.61 4108 3934 1499 1436 1977 77.40 113.30 42.79 48.45 70.51 64.85 5457 5020 1562 1437 1978 88.10 130.83 53.77 59.12 77.06 71.71 6789 6318 1595 1484 1979 89.00 182.03 84.93 82.38 97.10 99.65 8642 8869 1633 1676 1980 97.30 217.50 109.72 119.54 107.78 97.96 10487 9531 1696 1541 1981 113.80 216.06 128.14 140.03 87.92 76.03 10005 8652 1358 1174 1982 116.70 239.70 162.32 183.76 77.38 55.94 9030 6528 1006 727 1983 102.00 360.00 197.44 220.99 162.56 139.01 16581 14179 1475 1262 1984 92.60 435.87 302.33 329.76 133.54 106.11 12366 9826 858 682 labi fl;input subsidies YEAR wheat QF ICF ICfI ICf* ICF-ICF1 ICF-ICF* DTFN TIFN DTFA TTFR 1960 492.1 1.69 1.69 1.75 0.00 -0.06 2 -30 14 -191 1961 429.6 1.69 1.70 1.81 -0.01 -0.12 -4 -50 -22 -317 1962 645 1.64 1.65 1.69 -0.02 -0.06 -11 -37 -69 -236 1963 592 1.67 1.75 1.76 -0.08 -0.09 -50 -55 -309 -338 1964 471.9 1.67 1.75 1.80 -0.08 -0.13 - -40 -60 *243 *367 1965 612.3 1.69 1.77 1.81 -0.08 -0.13 -52 -78 -303 -458 1966 312 1.72 1.81 1.83 -0.08 -0.11 -26 -33 -146 -185 1967 637.2 1.66 1.74 1.75 -0.08 -0.09 -54 -56 *295 -306 1968 747.5 1.69 1.84 1.82 -0.15 -0.13 -114 -100 -592 -519 1969 453.6 1.68 1.83 1.76 -0.15 -0.08 -69 -35 -344 -175 1970 548.2 1.68 1.71 1.74 -0.09 -0.06- -50 -33 -242 -161 1971 793.7 1.63 1.75 1.71 -0.12 -0.08 -94 -62 -425 -280 1972 604.3 1.65 1.75 1.68 -0.10 -0.02 -59 -14 -251 - -58 1973 516.9 1.64 1.75 1.69 -0.10 -0.05 -54 -26 -210 -100 1974 533.6 2.01 2.33 2.40 -0.32 -0.39 -171 -209 -536 -654 00 1975 601.2 2.82 2.81 2.93 0.01 -0.11 4 -67 11 -180 1976 685.6 2.56 3.10 3.26 -0.53 -0.70 -367 -477 -828 -1077 1977 224.3 3.59 4.01 4.18 -0.41 -0.58 -92 -131 -163 -232 1978 249.9 4.29 5.05 5.09 -0.77 -0.80 -191 -200 -278 -290 1979 247.8 5.45 6.24 6.30 -0.79 -0.85 -196 -210 *229 -246 1980 429.5 6.49 8.57 8.73 -2.08 -2.24 -893 -964 -893 -964 1981 315.2 8.66 10.97 11.48 -2.31 -2.82 -729 -886 -612 -746 1982 424.5 12.82 14.06 14.79 -1.24 -1.97 -526 -836 *363 -576 1983 326.8 16.96 19.37 19.85 -2.41 -2.89 -787 -945 -433 -520 1984 465.6 23.41 23.39 23.34 0.02 0.07 8 32 3 14 fabte@¡ Catculation a Transfer ettects... input subsidy ettects. year ...... POTAfOES ..... QF ICF ICF1 ICF* ICF-ICF1 ICF-*CF* DIFN ITFl DTFR TTfR • 1960 1041.30 1.04 1.04 1.11 0.00 -0.07 1.70 -71.37 '10.96 -459.00 1961 1055.60 1.04 1.04 0.91 -0.00 0.13 -0.23 139.17 -1.48 889.93 1962 893.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 -0.00 -0.00 -1.38 -0.06 -8.81 -0.37 1963 1144.80 1.02 1.03 1.01 -0.01 0.01 -13.31 15.93 -82.30 98.50 1964 1143.40 1.02 1.03 1.10 -0.01 -0.08 -13.29 -89.26 -81.06 -544.35 1965 888.00 1.03 1.04 1.09 -0.01 -0.06 -10.29 -55.07 -60.36 -323.01 1966 923.30 1.06 1.07 1.14 -0.01 -0.08 -10.68 -75.19 -59.35 -417.68 1967 1295.70 1.02 1.03 1.18 .0.01 -0.17 -15.15 -215.46 -82.86 -1178.52 1968 1083.10 1.03 1.05 1.12 -0.02 -0.09 -23.48 -92.24 -122.35 -480.57 1969 1126.40 1.03 1.05 1.14 -0.02 .0.11 -24.44 -127.82 -121.67 .636.31 1970 1220.00 1.03 1.05 1.11 .0.01 .0.08 -16.99 -96.74 -82.30 *468.58 1971 1123.90 1.00 1.02 1.13 -0.02 -0.13 -21.75 -143.17 -97.88 -644.45 1972 1138.90 1.01 1.03 1.11 -0.02 -0.10 -18.46 -109.56 -78.32 -464.84 1973 1086.20 0.99 1.01 1.11 -0.02 -0.12 -20.03 -129.03 -77.92 -501.82 1974 1114.50 1.35 1.40 1.20 -0.05 0.15 -54.95 172.50 -171.99 539.90 1975 1012.40 1.53 1.53 0.49 -0.00 1.04 2.83 1052.14 7.61 2834.96 1976 918.10 1.51 1.65 0.37 -0.14 1.15 -129.60 1051.78 -292.55 2374.20 1977 1200.60 2.11 2.23 0.76 0.12 1.35 -143.81 1623.75 -254.62 2874.80 1978 1127.80 2.59 2.86 1.77 -0.26 0.82 -296.97 924.78 -431.50 1343.72 1979 1020.60 3.13 3.40 3.43 -0.27 -0.30 -277.09 -305.45 -323.82 -356.97 1980 1117.90 3.73 4.25 3.66 -0.52 0.07 -581.31 82.22 -581.31 82.22 1981 829.20 4.99 5.59 2.15 -0.60 2.84 -497.23 2353.25 -417.36 1975.26 1982 982.80 6.95 7.38 5.43 -0.44 1.52 -430.63 1491.26 -296.76 1027.67 1983 905.30 9.87 10.29 7.85 -0.42 2.02 -379.12 1832.80 -208.63 1008.58 1984 1038.00 13.66 13.65 11.89 0.01 1.77 11.67 1836.96 5.01 788.05 Table ft: Calculation of transfer effects, contd. YEAR ...........MILK.............. Ox PX PXI PX1* PX-PX1 PX-PX* DTXN TTXN DTXR TTXR ............. ........................................................... 1960 329.10 2.00 2.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 1961 355.90 1.91 1.91 1.91 .0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 1962 345.10 1.97 1.97 1.97 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 1963 351.10 2.07 2.07 2.07, 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 1964 320.00 2 i3 2.33 2.33 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 1965 365.70 2.26 2.26 2.26 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 1966 356.80 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 1967 348.20 3.10 2.60 2.60 0.50 0.50 174 174 154 154 1968 404.30 3.10 2.60 2.60 0.50 0.50 202 202 170 170 1969 444.10 3.10 2.60 2.60 0.50 0.50 222 222 179 179 1970 458.10 3.10 2.60 2.60 0.50 0.50 229 229 179 179 1971 432.70 3.50 3.20 3.20 0.30 0.30 130 130 94 94 1972 446.50 3.60 3.20 3.20 0.40 0.40 179 179 123 123 1973 462.10 3.60 3.20 3.20 0.40 0.40 185 185 116 116 1974 483.70 4.90 4.40 4.40 0.50 0.50 242 242 122 122 1975 514.60 6.74 6.44 6.44 0.30 0.30 154 154 67 67 1976 528.20 7.84 7.54 7.54 0.30 0.30 158 158 58 58 1977 559.90 8.95 8.65 8.65 0.30 0.30 168 168 48 48 1978 568.90 12.51 12.21 12.21 0.30 0.30 171 171 40 40 1979 656.20 14.01 13.71 13.71 0.30 0.30 197 197 37 37 1980 734.50 14.51 13.71 13.71 0.80 0.80 588 588 95 95 1981 798.60 16.47 15.27 15.27 1.20 1.20 958 958 130 130 1982 792.60 20.35 19.15 19.15 1.20 1.20 951 951 106 106 1983 793.90 28.10 20.50 20.50 7.60 7.60 6034 6034 537 537 1984 779.50 30.02 29.02 29.02 1.00 1.00 780 780 54 54 Table Calculation of Transfer effects... input subsidy effects Year ..........WINE......... OD 1CD IC1 ICD ICD-ICD1 ICD-ICD* ' DTON TTON DIDR TTOR 1960 1187.7 0.61 0.55 0.64 0.08 -0.00 97.25 -5.92 625.45 ,38.11 1961 1437.5 0.63 0.55 0.35 0.08 0.28 116.41 407.38 744.37 2604.94 1962 2008.4 0.61 0.53 0.58 0.08 0.03 161.29 58.75 1027.12 174.10 1963 1809.9 0.62 0.54 0.57 0.08 0.05 136.58 83.16 844.68 514.32 1964 2135.8 0.62 0.54 0.66 0.08 -0.04 161.17 -85.84 982.92 -523.52 1965 2050.2 0.63 0.53 0.64 0.10 -0.01 195.78 -27.16 1148.36 -159.30 1966 1071.6 0.65 0.55 0.73 0.10 -0.08 102.36 -88.53 568.61 -491.78 1967 1049.5 0.62 0.52 0.98 0.10 -0.37 100.14 -383.68 547.72 -2098.64 1968 1787.7 0.63 0.54 0.81 0.09 *0.18 162.00 -327.52 844.09 -1706.49 1969 1306.2 0.63 0.54 1.04 0.09 -0.42 118.35 -544.35 589.19 -2709.96 1970 1411.4 0.63 0.52 0.92 0.11 -0.29 160.84 -409.73 779.08 -1984.67 1971 1217.7 0.62 0.51 1.02 0.11 -0.40 135.08 -492.89 608.04 -2218.59 1972 1422.6 0.62 0.51 1.64 0.11 -1.02 160.00 -1450.95 678.81 -6155.97 1973 1419.9 0.61 0.48 1.25 0.13 -0.64 186.02 -907.47 723.48 -3529.32 1974 2083.9 0.81 0.65 -0.48 0.16 1.28 326.40 2677.37 1021.57 8379.77 1975 682.8 0.90 0.69 -0.58 0.20 1.48 138.85 1008.84 374.12 2718.28 1976 1128.3 0.87 0.72 -1.22 0.15 2.09 174.80 2360.24 394.57 5327.81 1977 692.6 1.22 0.97 -2.62 0.25 3.84 170.81 2660.86 302.41 4710.97 1978 792.1 1.52 1.31 -0.37 0.21 1.89 166.89 1493.96 242.50 2170.74 1979 1903.7 1.81 1.51 1.90 0.31 -0.08 582.71 -156.28 680.98 -182.63 1980 1550.0 2.13 1.90 -0.64 0.23 2.77 356.50 4287.92 356.50 4287.92 1981 1261.7 2.80 2.50 -1.18 0.30 3.98 377.65 5020.13 316.99 4213.78 1982 1316.1 3.85 3.33 -2.69 0.52 6.54 684.58 8607.81 471.77 5931.91 1983 1201.1 5.31 4.52 2.20 0.79 3.10 947.39 3728.87 521.35 2051.98 1984 1101.8 7.35 6.03 5.45 1.32 1.91 1454.32 2103.25 623.90 902.29 Table f2:input subsidies Year rice OF ICF ICF1 ICF* ICF-ICF1 ICF-ICF* DTFN TTFN DTFR TTFR 1960 151.2 2.04 2.04 2.15 0.00 -0.11 0 -16 2 -104 1961 177.4 2.04 2.05 2.20 -0.01 -0.16 -2 -29 -10 -184 1962 173.5 1.97 1.99 2.06 -0.02 -0.08 -3 -14 -18 -92 1963 166.3 2.01 2.08 2.09 -0.08 -0.08 -13 -14 -78 -87 1964 181.4 2.01 2.08 2.16 -0.08 -0.16 •14 -28 -84 -172 1965 138.8 2.03 2.10 2.18 -0.08 -0.15 -11 -21 -62 -124 1966 154 2.08 2.15 2.20 -0.08 -0.12 -12 -19 -65 -104 1967 146 2.00 2.08 2.11 -0.08 -0.11 -11 -16 -61 -86 1968 149 2.03 2.16 2.14 -0.14 -0.11 -20 -17 -105 -88 1969 175.8 2.02 2.16 2.05 -0.14 -0.03 -24 -5 -119 -25 1970 194.7 2.05 2.13 2.08 -0.08 -0.04 -15 -7 -75 -35 1971 161.6 2.00 2.10 2.05 -0.10 -0.04 -16 .7 -73 -32 1972 163.9 2.02 2.11 2.01 -0.08 0.02 -14 3 .57 13 1973 167.6 2.00 2.09 2.01 -0.09 -0.01 -14 -1 -56 -3 1974 129.5 2.57 2.85 2.94 -0.28 -0.37 -36 -47 -113 -148 1975 132.7 3.05 3.05 3.17 0.00 -0.12 0 -16 1 -43 1976 97.2 3.04 3.39 3.56 -0.34 -0.51 -33 -50 -76 -112 1977 101.7 4.34 4.58 4.70 -0.24 -0.36 -25 -37 -43 -65 1978 134.9 5.45 5.82 5.77 -0.37 -0.31 -49 -42 -72 -62 1979 145.3 6.63 7.01 7.12 -0.38 -0.49 -55 -71 -64 -83 1980 154.8 8.02 . 9.42 9.47 -1.40 -1.45 -217 -225 -217 -225 1981 111.9 10.50 12.01 12.46 -1.51 -1.96 -169 -219 -142 -184 1982 143.4 15.05 15.62 16.18 -0.57 -1.14 -81 -163 -56 -112 1983 109.1 19.48 21.48 21.59 -1.99 -2.11 -218 -230 -120 -126 1984 134.1 27.05 27.04 26.$0 0.00 0.55 1 73 0 31 Tabte Calculation of Transfer effects... input subsidy effects. Year tomatoes oX IX ICX1 ICX* ICX-lCX1 ICX-ICX* DTXN TTXM DTXR TTXR 1960 55 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.00 -0.01 0 -0 1 -3 1961 75.6 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.00 -0.01 0 .1 1 11-6 1962 147.8 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.00 -0.00 0 -1 2 1-'4 1963 187.5 0.18 0.18 0.18 -0.00 -0.00 -0 -0 -2 -3 1964 263 0.18 0.18 0.18 -0.00 -0.01 -0 -2 -3 -15 1965 413 0.18 0.18 0.19 -0.00 -0.01 .1 -4 -4 -22 1966 515 0.18 0.18 0.19 -0.00 -0.01 -1 -3 -5 -17 1967 798.8 0.17 0.18 0.18 -0.00 -0.01 -1 .4 -8 -23 1968 866.8 0.18 0.18 0.18 -0.01 -0.00 -4 -3 -23 -15 1969 826.6 0.18 0.18 0.17 -0.01 0.00 -4 4 -21 18 1970 733.6 0.18 0.18 0.18 -0.00 0.00 -2 1 -8 5 1971 624.7 0.17 0.18 0.17 -0.00 0.00 -3 1 -12 3 1972 813.7 0.17 0.18 0.17 -0.00 0.01 -2 5 -11 20 1973 849 0.17 0.18 0.17 -0.00 0.00 -3 3 -12 12 1974 714.4 0.22 0.23 0.24 -0.01 -0.02 -10 -15 -31 -47 1975 826.1 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.00 -0.01 4 -5 11 -13 1976 493.2 0.25 0.29 0.30 -0.04 -0.05 -18 -25 -40 -55 1977 665.8 0.35 0.38 0.39 -0.03 -0.04 -19 -24 -33 -42 1978 631.6 0.43 0.49 0.48 -0.06 -0.06 -40 -35 -58 -51 1979 553.2 0.53 0.59 0.60 -0.06 -0.07 -35 -41 -41 -48 1980 456.6 0.62 0.76 0.76 -0.14 -0.14 -64 -63 •64 -63 1981 394.8 0.82 0.98 1.01 -0.16 -0.19 .62 -75 -52 -63 1982 523.1 1.17 1.27 1.30 -0.10 -0.13 -51 -70 -35 -48 1983 557.8 1.59 1.71 1.70 -0.11 -0.11 -64 -60 -35 -33 1984 729.2 2.20 2.17 2.11 0.03 0.09 22 64 9 28 Table Calculation of Transfer effects... input subsidy effects Year corn 00 lCD 1C01 ICD* ICD-ICD1 lCD-lCD* DTON TTDN DTOR TTDR 1960 466.4 0.99 0.98 1.03 0.00 -0.04 2 -17 15 -107 1961 632 0.99 0.99 1.06 -0.00 -0.07 -1 -42 -4 -266 1962 598.9 0.95 0.96 0.98 -0.01 -0.03 -3 -18 -19 -116 1963 523.4 0.97 1.01 1.02 -0.04 -0.04 -19 -21 -118 -132 1964 596.5 0.97 1.01 1.04 -0.04 -0.06 -22 -39 -133 -236 1965 458.6 0.99 1.02 1.05 -0.04' -0.06 -17 -30 -98 -173 1966 564.7 1.01 1.05 1.06 -0.04 -0.05 -20 -29 -114 -162 1967 576.8 0.97 1.01 1.01 -0.04 -0.04 -21 -24 -116 -132 1968 547.9 0.99 1.06 1.04 -0.07 -0.06 -37 -31 -194 -163 1969 552.6 0.98 1.05 1.00 -0.07 -0.02 -38 -13 -187 -62 1970 581.4 0.98 1.02 1.00 -0.04 -0.02 -24 -14 -118 -66 1971 526.4 0.94 1.00 0.98 -0.06 -0.03 -30 -17 -135 -77 1972 518.5 0.95 1.00 0.96 -0.05 -0.00 -24 -1 -103 -6 1973 508.6 0.95 1.00 0.97 -0.05 -0.02 -27 -10 -103 -37 1974 485.5 1.16 1.31 1.35 -0.15 -0.19 -73 -92 -228 -289 1975 451.3 1.66 1.65 1.72 0.01 -0.06 4 -27 10 -74 1976 378.5 1.44 1.79 1.88 -0.35 -0.44 -132 -166 -297 -376 1977 441.9 1.99 2.27 2.36 -0.29 -0.37 -126 -164 -223 -291 1978 449.4 2.30 2.90 2.90 -0.60 -0.61 -269 -272 -391 -395 1979 461.4 2.95 3.57 3.61 -0.62 -0.66 -285 -304 -333 -355 1980 489.2 3.43 4.74 4.81 -1.31 -1.38 -641 -673 -641 -673 1981 376.7 4.63 6.12 6.38 -1.49 -1.75 -562 -660 -471 -554 1982 421.2 6.81 7.80 8.16 -0.99 -1.35 -416 -569 -287 -392 1983 424.4 9.37 10.58 10.78 -1.21 -1.41 -514 -599 -283 -329 1984 481.1 12.88 12.85 12.77 0.03 0.12 16 57 7 24 Table f3: Calculation of transfer effects, contd. YEAR corn OD PD PD1 PDI* PD-PD1 PD-PD* DTDN TTDN DTDR TTDR 1960 466.40 2.25 1.62 1.47 0.63 0.78 294 363 306 378 1961 632.00 2.07 1.87 1.79 0.20 0.28 126 175 131 181 1962 598.90 2.14 1.90 1.80 0.24 0.34 144 202 148 208 1963 523.40 2.15 1.80 1.82 0.35 0.33 183 175 183 175 1964 596.50 2.12 1.82 1.67 0.30 0.45 179 270 176 266 1965 458.60 2.63 1.95 1.81 0.68 0.82 312 376 296 356 1966 564.70 2.49 1.99 1.87 0.50 0.62 282 351 254 315 1967 576.80 2.43 1.96 1.76 0.47 0.67 271 388 240 343 1968 547.90 2.46 1.97 1.95 0.49 0.51 268 280 226 236 1969 552.60 2.43 1.94 1.99 0.49 0.44 271 242 218 195 1970 581.40 2.34 2.18 2.19 0.16 0.15 93 89 73 70 1971 526.40 2.77 2.07 2.09 0.70 0.68 368 360 268 262 1972 518.50 2.77 1.86 1.85 0.91 0.92 472 478 324 328 1973 508.60 2.62 2.62 2.68 0.00 -0.06 0 -32 0 -20 1974 485.50 3.88 4.99 5.14 -1.11 -1.26 -539 -611 -273 -309 1975 451.30 5.36 4.12 4.33 1.24 1.03 560 463 244 202 1976 378.50 5.35 4.08 4.36 1.27 0.99 481 374 175 136 1977 441.90 6.38 4.51 5.20 1.87 1.18 826 522 237 149 1978 449.40 7.23 5.26 5.88 1.97 1.35 885 606 208 142 1979 461.40 8.32 6.78 6.54 1.54 1.78 711 820 134 155 1980 489.20 9.64 7.97 8.75 1.67 0.89 817 436 132 70 1981 376.70 12.78 11.05 12.15 1.73 0.63 652 239 88 32 1982 421.20 15.09 10.87 12.39 4.22 2.70 1777 1137 198 127 1983 424.40 23.73 16.82 19.05 6.91 4.68 2933 1988 261 177 1984 481.10 32.50 23.81 26.18 8.69 6.32 4181 3040 290 211 Table n: Calculation of transfer effects, contd. YEAR .................WINE.................... OD PD PD1 PD1* PD-PD1 PD-PD* DTDN TTDN DTDR TTDR ......................................................................... 1960 1187.70 2.84 2.84 2.55 0.00 0.29 0 344 0 358 1961 1437.50 3.34 3.34 3.18 0.00 0.16 0 232 0 239 1962 2008.40 2.54 2.54 2.40 0.00 0.14 0 287 0 295 1963 1809.90 2.22 2.22 2.24 0.00 -0.02 0 -36 0 -36 1964 2135.80 2.22 2.22 2.02 0.00 0.20 0 432 0 426 1965 2050.20 2.18 2.18 2.01 0.00 0.17 0 352 0 334 1966 1071.60 2.98 2.98 2.78 0.00 0.20 0 211 0 190 1967 1049.50 4.01 4.01 3.56 0.00 0.45 0 469 0 415 1968 1787.70 3.77 3.77 3.73 0.00 0.04 0 72 0 61 1969 1306.20 4.96 4.96 5.12 0.00 -0.16 0 -212 0 -171 1970 1411.40 4.38 4.38 4.40 0.00 -0.02 0 -29 0 -23 1971 1217.70 5.22 5.22 5.28 0.00 -0.06 0 -69 0 -50 1972 1422.60 6.20 6.20 6.18 0.00 0.02 0 26 0 18 1973 1419.90 7.23 7.23 7.44 0.00 -0.21 0 -295 0 -185 1974 2083.90 5.51 5.51 5.67 0.00 -0.16 0 -340 0 -172 1975 682.80 6.39 6.39 6.73 0.00 -0.34 0 -231 0 -101 1976 1128.30 8.32 8.32 8.91 0.00 -0.59 0 .666 0 -243 1977 692.60 15.12 15.12 17.62 0.00 -2.50 0 -1730 0 -495 1978 792.10 30.63 30.63 34.65 0.00 -4.02 0 -3183 0 -748 1979 1903.70 15.76 15.76 15.13 0.00 0.63 0 1208 0 228 1980 1550.00 18.25 18.25 20.22 0.00 -1.97 0 -3051 0 -493 1981 1261.70 30.07 30.07 33.23 0.00 -3.16 0 -3981 0 -540 1982 1316.10 26.70 26.70 30.75 0.00 -4.05 0 -5335 0 -594 1983 1201.10 30.49 30.49 34.88 0.00 -4.39 0 -5270 0 -469 1984 1101.80 34.04 34.04 37.74 0.00 -3.70 0 -4081 0 -283 TabLe F3: Calculation of transfer effects, contd. YEAR sheep OD PD PD1 PD1* PD-PD1 PD-PD* DTDN TTDN DTDR TTDR 1960 18.80 40.23 37.60 40.58 2.63 -0.35 49 .7 51 -7 1961 18.90 40.88 35.80 39.59 5.08 1.29 96 24 99 25 1962 19.30 39.54 35.67 37.59 3.87 1.95 75 38 77 39 1963 19.10 49.67 42.94 43.04 6.73 6.63 129 127 129 127 1964 22.50 63.03 54.68 58.69 8.35 4.34 188 98 185 96 1965 25.60 57.27 51.10 54.39 6.17 2.88 158 74 150 70 1966 26.10 65.42 53.21 55.99 12.21 9.43 319 246 286 221 1967 21.60 66.51 52.40 55.87 14.11 10.64 305 230 270 203 1968 17.50 63.38 48.59 48.10 14.79 15.28 259 267 218 225 1969 18.40 78.97 58.36 52.96 20.61 26.01 379 479 305 385 1970 19.20 77.78 59.43 57.60 18.35 20.18 352 387 276 303 1971 18.00 102.67 76.65 73.17 26.02 29.50 468 531 341 387 1972 18.00 117.22 89.61 83.54 27.61 33.68 497 606 341 416 1973 19.90 144.14 109.18 101.63 34.96 42.51 696 846 437 532 1974 18.20 178.86 141.42 145.75 37.44 33.11 681 603 345 305 1975 17.80 217.50 164.59 170.34 52.91 47.16 942 839 410 366 1976 18.60 242.88 178.93 185.60 63.95 57.28 1189 1065 434 389 1977 19.90 291.37 221.92 212.21 69.45 79.16 1382 1575 396 451 1978 18.60 309.25 240.90 223.47 68.35 85.78 1271 1595 299 375 1979 18.50 411.31 319.11 332.93 92.20 78.38 1706 1450 322 274 1980 20.10 469.21 396.98 379.28 72.23 89.93 1452 1808 235 292 1981 19.70 401.17 383.28 389.54 17.89 11.63 352 229 48 31 1982 21.50 508.15 467.68 466.32 40.47 41.83 870 899 97 100 1983 22.80 613.26 527.98 497.74 85.28 115.52 1944 2634 173 234 1984 21.90 757.30 718.41 677.08 38.89 80.22 852 1757 59 122 Table 4: Calculation of Transfer effects.. .Value-added approach. ...... POTATOES ..... YEAR OF VAF VAFI VAFI* VAF-VAF1 VAF-VAF* DTfN TTFN DTFR TTFR .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..................................... 1960 1041.3 0.11 0.21 0.09 -0.10 0.02 -106 23 -6#1 147 1961 1055.6 0.06 1.02 0.89 -0.96 -0.83 -1013 -878 .64P -5611 1962 893.5 0.40 1.85 1.69 -1.45 -1.29 -1294 -1153 -8241 -7343 1963 1144.8 0.13 0.90 0.91 -0.77 -0.78 -880 -893 -5440 -5520 1964 1143.4 0.08 0.84 0.68 -0.76 -0.60 -867 -688 -5288 -4196 1965 888.0 0.67 0.79 0.65 -0.12 0.01 -105 11 -617 66 1966 923.3 0.95 0.96 0.84 -0.01 0.11 -8 99 -43 551 1967 1295.7 0.11 0.76 0.61 -0.65 -0.49 -840 -640 -4595 -3502 1968 1083.1 0.21 1.49 1.47 -1.28 -1.26 -1385 -1367 -7214 -7123 1969 1126.4 0.68 1.37 1.45 -0.69 -0.77 -775 -873 -3860 -4345 1970 1220.0 0.22 1.62 1.64 -1.41 -1.43 -1715 -1739 -8309 -8423 1971 1123.9 0.61 2.22 2.26 -1.61 -1.65 -1810 -1853 -8148 -8342 1972 1138.9 1.16 0.74 0.76 0.42 0.40 474 460 2011 1950 1973 1086.2 1.43 2.09 2.17 -0.66 -0.74 -719 -801 -2795 -3116 m 1974 1114.5 1.63 1.69 1.74 -0.06 -0.11 -68 -123 -212 -385 1975 1012.4 2.85 6.57 6.92 -3.72 -4.08 -3769 -4126 -10155 -11117 1976 918.1 .4.83 6.58 7.05 -1.75 -2.22 -1606 -2039 -3624 -4603 1977 1200.6 4.17 6.39 7.51 -2.22 -3.34 -2666 -4013 -4719 -7105 1978 1127.8 1.84 9.26 10.59 -7.43 -8.75 -8376 -9870 -12170 -14341 1979 1020.6 6.15 13.80 13.21 -7.65 -7.05 -7806 -7197 -9123 -8411 1980 1117.9 4.37 4.07 4.63 0.30 -0.26 335 -290 335 -290 1981 829.2 6.35 18.06 20.10 -11.71 -13.75 -9710 -11400 -8151 -9569 1982 982.8 7.51 5.90 7.18 1.62 0.34 1590 331 1096 228 1983 905.3 7.14 13.21 15.90 -6.07 -8.76 -5496 -7932 -3025 -4365 1984 1038.0 13.10 17.92 20.87 -4.82 -7.78 -5004 -8072 -2147 -3463 Table x Calculation of Transfer effects...VaLue-added approach. Year .....HILK..... Ox VAX VAXI VAX1P VAX-VAX1 VAX-VAX* DTXM TTXN DTXR TTXR .............................................------................................................ 1960 329.1 0.57 0.61 0.46 -0.04 0.11 -12 37 -79 237 1 1961 355.9 0.46 0.46 0.33 -0.01 0.13 .2 47 -13 304 1962 345.1 0.48 0.48 0.35 -0.00 0.13 -1 45 -7 288 1963 351.1 0.51 0.48 0.35 0.04 0.16 12 58 77 356 1964 320 0.73 0.69 0.54 0.04 0.19 12 59 72 361 1965 365.7 0.60 0.59 0.44 0.01 0.16 5 59 30 348 1966 356.8 0.80 0.78 0.63 0.02 0.17 9 61 47 339 1967 348.2 1.42 0.90 0.75 0.53 0.67 183 234 1000 1282 1968 404.3 1.40 0.83 0.69 0.57 0.71 231 286 1204 1491 1969 444.1 1.40 0.83 0.71 0.57 0.69 254 306 1264 1525 1970 458.1 1.40 0.86 0.74 0.54 0.66 248 304 1201 1473 1971 432.7 1.81 1.51 1.39 0.30 0.42 128 180 577 811 1972 446.5 1.88 1.52 1.41 0.35 0.47 158 209 672 888 1973 462.1 1.79 1.32 1.21 0.47 0.58 218 268 846 1043 1974 483.7 2.77 1.89 1.71 0.88 1.06 426 515 1334 1611 1975 514.6 3.71 3.41 3.18 0.36 0.59 186 303 502 816 1976 528.2 4.99 4.31 4.07 0.67 0.91 356 483 804 1090 1977 559.9 5.15 4.57 4.27 0.58 0.88 327 493 579 873 1978 568.9 7.83 7.22 6.87 0.61 0.96 350 547 508 794 1979 656.2 8.15 7.44 6.94 0.71 1.21 468 796 546 930 1980 734.5 7.39 5.14 4.46 2.25 2.93 1654 2150 1654 2150 1981 798.6 6.89 4.00 3.16 2.89 3.73 2304 2977 1934 2499 1982 792.6 7.58 5.89 4.87 1.69 2.71 1342 2152 925 1483 1983 793.9 8.46 3.23 1.60 5.23 6.86 4151 5450 2284 2999 1984 779.5 3.80 3.58 1.78 0.22 2.02 173 1573 74 675 Table : calculation of Transfer effects...Value-added approach. --Year ...............................................................-------.- Year ....... WINE ...... OD VAD VAD1 VAD1* VAD-VAD1 VAD-VAD* DTDN TTDN DTOR TTDR 1960 1187.7 2.21 1.99 1.69 0.22 0.52 259 617 1666 3965 1961 1437.5 2.71 1.91 1.74 0.80 0.97 1149 1393 7344 8909 1962 2008.4 1.93 2.14 1.97 -0.21 -0.03 -422 -70 -2690 -446 1963 1809.9 1.60 2.33 2.35 -0.73 -0.75 -1313 -1357 -8120 -8391 1964 2135.8 1.60 2.40 2.09 -0.80 -0.49 -1699 -1057 -10361 -6444 1965 2050.2 1.55 2.51 2.24 -0.96 -0.69 -1959 -1405 -11490 -8241 1966 1071.6 2.33 2.65 2.42 -0.32 -0.08 -338 -89 -1878 -497 1967 1049.5 3.39 3.65 3.16 -0.26 0.23 -268 241 -1466 1316 1968 1787.7 3.14 4.66 4.61 -1.52 -1.47 -2718 -2629 -14164 -13697 1969 1306.2 4.33 4.88 5.10 -0.55 -0.76 -719 -997 -3580 -4965 1970 1411.4 3.75 6.73 6.78 -2.98 -3.03 -4212 -4277 -20400 -20718 1971 1217.7 4.60 7.42 7.53 -2.82 -2.92 -3435 -3561 -15462 -16027 1972 1422.6 5.58 8.95 8.96 -3.37 -3.37 -4798 -4799 -20355 -20363 1973 1419.9 6.62 10.44 10.78 -3.82 -4.16 -5425 -5907 -21101 -22973 C 1974 2083.9 4.70 12.28 12.64 -7.58 -7.94 -15789 -16545 -49417 -51785 1975 682.8 5.49 9.27 9.77 -3.77 -4.27 -2576 -2918 -6942 -7863 1976 1128.3 7.45 11.03 11.84 -3.58 -4.39 -4045 -4950 -9131 -11174 1977 692.6 13.90 18.72 21.98 -4.82 -8.08 -3336 -5596 -5906 -9907 1978 792.1 29.11 20.46 23.37 8.65 5.74 6851 4545 9955 6604 1979 1903.7 13.95 28.84 27.57 -14.90 -13.63 -28358 -25943 -33140 -30318 1980 1550 16.12 36.48 40.67 -20.36 -24.55 -31558 -38056 -31558 -38056 1981 1261.7 27.27 23.42 26.10 3.85 1.17 4858 1478 4078 1240 1982 1316.1 22.85 31.39 36.66 -8.54 -13.81 -11240 -18170 -7746 -12522 1983 1201.1 25.18 25.02 29.45 0.16 -4.27 194 -5124 107 -2820 1984 1101.8 28.66 33.63 38.27 -4.97 -9.62 -5476 -10595 -2349 -4545 Table : Calculation of Transfer effects.. .Value-added approach. rice year OF VAF VAFI VAFl* VAF-VAF1 VAF-VAF* DTN TTFw DTFR TIFR 1960 151.2 0.57 0.52 0.16 0.05 0.40 7 61 46 393 1961 177.4 0.68 0.58 0.31 0.10 0.37 18 65 112 418 1962 173.5 0.77 2.12 1.83 -1.35 -1.06 -235 -184 -1495 -1175 1963 166.3 0.79 0.80 0.81 -0.00 -0.02 -1 -4 -4 -22 1964 181.4 0.95 0.75 0.42 0.21 0.53 37 97 228 589 1965 138.8 0.98 0.38 0.11 0.61 0.87 84 120 493 707 1966 154.0 1.14 0.77 0.54 0.38 0.61 58 93 322 519 1967 146.0 1.34 1.10 0.73 0.24 0.61 34 89 189 486 1968 149.0 1.52 1.09 1.07 0.44 0.45 65 67 338 348 1969 175.8 1.61 0.56 0.75 1.05 0.86 184 151 915 751 1970 194.7 1.66 0.77 0.83 0.89 0.84 173 163 839 788 1971 161.6 1.79 2.23 2.32 -0.44 -0.54 -71 -87 -319 -392 1972 163.9 1.60 0.49 0.58 1.10 1.01 181 166 767 706 co 1973 167.6 1.62 2.29 2.49 -0.67 -0.87 -113 -146 -440 -568 1974 129.5 2.46 5.35 5.50 -2.89 -3.05 -374 -395 -1172 -1235 1975 132.7 3.12 3.93 4.18 -0.81 -1.06 -108 -140 -291 -378 1976 97.2 3.78 3.45 3.76 0.32 0.01 32 1 71 3 1977 101.7 3.03 3.78 5.00 -0.75 -1.96 -76 -200 -135 -353 1978 134.9 4.53 4.98 6.39 -0.45 -1.87 -61 -252 -89 -366 1979 145.3 6.12 4.94 4.38 1.18 1.74 171 253 200 296 1980 154.8 7.20 3.85 5.16 3.35 2.04 519 315 519 315 1981 111.9 7.76 11.54 13.51 -3.78 -5.75 -423 -643 -355 -540 1982 143.4 6.96 6.24 8.89 0.72 -1.93 103 -277 71 -191 1983 109.1 9.44 3.51 6.84 5.92 2.60 646 284 356 156 1984 134.1 15.15 7.93 12.10 7.23 3.06 969 410 416 176 Table CaLculation of Transfer effects... VaLue-added approach. Year tomatoes eX VAX VAXI VAX1* VAX-VAX1 VAX-VAX* DTXN TTXN DTXR TTXR 1960 55 0.36 0.36 0.30 -0.00 0.06 -0 3 -1 22 1961 75.6 0.36 0.36 0.32 -0.00 0.04 -0 3 -1 18 1962 147.8 0.37 0.37 0.33 -0.00 0.03 -0 5 -2 33 1963 187.5 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.00 -0.00 0 -o 2 -3 1964 263 0.36 0.36 0.31 0.00 0.06 0 15 3 94 1965 413 0.36 0.36 0.31 0.00 0.05 1 21 4 125 1966 515 0.36 0.36 0.32 0.00 0.04 1 22 5 120 1967 798.8 0.37 0.36 0.30 0.00 0.07 1 52 8 286 1968 866.8 0.36 0.36 0.35 0.01 0.01 4 8 23 41 1969 826.6 0.37 0.36 0.39 0.02 -0.01 13 -10 63 -50 1970 733.6 0.39 0.36 0.37 0.03 0.03 24 19 115 93 1971 624.7 0.43 0.36 0.37 0.06 0.05 40 33 180 150 1972 813.7 0.44 0.36 0.37 0.07 0.07 59 54 252 227 1973 849 0.52 0.51 0.54 0.00 -0.02 3 -20 12 -77 1974 714.4 1.22 0.66 0.67 0.56 0.54 403 389 1261 1218 1975 826.1 1.14 0.73 0.77 0.41 0.36 335 300 902 808 1976 493.2 1.11 0.93 1.00 0.18 0.10 87 51 196 115 1977 665.8 1.12 1.09 1.32 0.03 -0.21 19 -138 33 -244 1978 631.6 1.31 1.11 1.33 0.20 -0.01 128 -9 186 -13 1979 553.2 1.71 1.21 1.12 0.50 0.59 279 325 326 380 1980 456.6 2.34 1.32 1.55 1.02 0.79 466 363 466 363 1981 394.8 2.53 1.67 1.92 0.86 0.61 339 241 284 203 1982 523.1 3.30 2.85 3.44 0.45 -0.14 234 -74 162 -51 1983 557.8 3.84 3.48 4.24 0.35 -0.40 198 -223 109 -123 1984 729.2 4.59 3.73 4.43 0.86 0.16 627 117 269 50 Table (0 Calculation of Transfer effects.. .Value-added approach. Year corn 0D VAD VAD1 VAD1* VAD-VADI VAD-VAD* DTDN TTON DIDR TTDR .............................-------------------------------------------------------------------.... 1960 466.4 1.26 0.64 0.45 0.63 0.82 292 380 1875 2445 1961 632 1.08 0.88 0.74 0.20 0.34 127 217 812 1387 1962 598.9 1.19 0.94 0.82 0.25 0.37 147 220 935 1404 1963 523.4 1.18 0.79 0.80 0.39 0.38 202 196 1251 1214 1964 596.5 1.15 0.81 0.63 0.34 0.52 201 308 1224 1880 1965 458.6 1.64 0.93 0.76 0.72 0.88 329 405 1927 2378 1966 564.7 1.48 0.94 0.81 0.54 0.67 303 380 1682 2110 1967 576.8 1.46 0.95 0.75 0.51 0.71 292 412 1598 2254 1968 547.9 1.47 0.91 0.90 0.56 0.57 306 311 1593 1622 1969 552.6 1.45 0.89 0.99 0.56 0.46 308 255 1535 1268 1970 581.4 1.36 1.16 1.19 0.20 0.18 117 103 568 498 1971 526.4 1.83 1.07 1.11 0.76 0.72 398 377 1793 1698 1972 518.5 1.82 0.86 0.89 0.96 0.93 496 480 2105 2036 1973 508.6 1.67 1.62 1.72 0.05 -0.04 27 -23 103 -88 1974 485.5 2.72 3.68 3.79 -0.96 -1.07 -466 -519 -1458 -1623 1975 451.3 3.70 2.47 2.61 1.23 1.09 556 490 1498 1320 1976 378.5 3.91 2.29 2.48 1.62 1.43 612 540 1383 1219 1977 441.9 4.39 2.24 2.84 2.16 1.55 953 687 1686 1215 1978 449.4 4.93 2.36 2.98 2.57 1.95 1155 878 1678 1276 1979 461.4 5.37 3.21 2.93 2.16 2.44 995 1124 1163 1313 1980 489.2 6.21 3.23 3.94 2.98 2.27 1458 1109 1458 1109 1981 376.7 8.15 4.93 5.77 3.22 2.39 1213 899 1018 755 1982 421.2 8.28 3.07 4.23 5.21 4.05 2194 1706 1512 1176 1983 424.4 14.36 6.24 8.27 8.12 6.09 3446 2587 1897 1423 1984 481.1 19.62 10.96 13.41 8.66 6.20 4165 2984 1787 1280 Table : Calculation of Transfer effects.. .Value-added approach. wheat year OF VAF VAFI VAF1* VAF-VAF1 VAF-VAF* DTFN TTFN DTFR TTFR . .. .. .. .... . . . . . . ... . . . . .. ................................................ 1960 492.1 1.28 0.32 0.07 0.96 1.21 470 596 3025 3836 1961 429.6 1.28 0.33 0.13 0.95 1.14 407 491 2605 3139 1962 645 1.33 0.42 0.27 0.92 1.07 591 688 3766 4379 1963 592 1.35 0.25 0.26 1.10 1.09 654 648 4044 4008 1964 471.9 1.35 0.41 0.18 0.94 1.17 446 554 2718 3376 1965 612.3 1.55 0.09 -0.09 1.46 1.64 897 1007 5259 5905 1966 312 1.54 0.23 0.08 1.30 1.45 407 453 2261 2518 oa 1967 637.2 1.60 0.39 0.16 1.21 1.44 774 919 4234 5025 1968 747.5 1.57 0.08 0.08 1.49 1.49 1115 1116 5811 5817 1969 453.6 1.58 -0.08 0.04 1.66 1.54 754 698 3753 3476 1970 548.2 1.58 0.31 0.35 1.27 1.23 697 676 3375 3275 1971 793.7 1.92 0.11 0.17 1.81 1.75 1436 1391 6462 6263 1972 604.3 1.90 0.45 0.51 1.45 1.38 875 837 3712 3550 1973 516.9 1.91 2.23 2.39 -0.33 -0.49 -168 -251 -655 -975 1974 533.6 2.25 3.38 3.48 -1.13 -1.23 -603 -655 -1886 -2051 1975 601.2 2.12 2.58 2.75 -0.46 -0.62 -275 -374 -740 -1007 1976 685.6 2.38 1.66 1.83 0.71 0.54 490 373 1106 842 1977 224.3 2.46 1.05 1.67 1.40 0.78 314 176 556 312 1978 249.9 3.30 1.09 1.80 2.22 1.50 554 375 804 545 1979 247.8 5.77 2.00 1.64 3.77 4.13 934 1024 1092 1196 1980 429.5 6.37 1.49 2.34 4.88 4.03 2096 1729 2096 1729 1981 315.2 6.03 2.20 3.02 3.83 3.01 1208 948 1014 796 1982 424.5 5.11 -0.37 0.87 5.48 4.23 2326 1797 1603 1239 1983 326.8 6.84 -1.30 0.66 8.14 6.18 2659 2020 1463 1112 1984 465.6 11.53 0.85 3.36 10.68 a.17 4974 3805 2134 1632 Table 6: Calculation of Transfer effects...Vatue-added approach. Year beef OX VAX VAXI VAXI* VAX-VAXI VAX-VAX* DINK TTXN DTXR TTXR 1960 40.3 -0.96 -5.69 -8.93 4.73 7.96 191 321 1226 2064 1961 44.4 -1.29 -7.67 -10.02 6.38 8.73 283 388 1811 247 1962 50.2 -1.99 -8.58 -11.03 6.58 9.03 330 454 2104 2888 1963 46.8 -1.32 -9.95 -11.71 8.64 10.39 404 486 2500 3009 1964 42.9 -0.74 -5.72 -9.25 4.98 8.51 214 365 1302 2227 1965 58.1 -1.83 -6.01 -9.35 4.19 7.52 243 437 1428 2564 1946 60.5 1.27 -6.38 -9.52 7.64 10.79 463 653 2569 3625 1967 49.9 3.69 -7.43 -11.16 11.12 14.85 555 741 3034 4052 1968 57.9 2.97 -10.99 -13.11 13.97 16.09 809 932 4213 4853 1969 79.2 3.41 -10.12 -11.54 13.53 14.95 1072 1184 5334 5896 1970 81.2 4.90 -5.61 -7.36 10.52 12.26 917 1069 4441 5179 1971 74.2 10.00 -0.61 -2.20 10.61 12.21 787 906 3544 4077 I 1972 73 12.58 1.61 -0.27 10.97 12.85 801 938 3398 3981 o0 1973 81.2 26.13 2.87 1.87 23.26 24.26 1889 1970 7345 7662 1974 84.3 29.74 2.12 0.61 27.62 29.13 2329 2456 7288 7686 1915 97.7 26.53 -13.71 -15.47 40.23 42.00 3931 4103 10591 11056 1976 79.3 42.84 -14.44 -15.81 57.28 58.64 4542 4650 10253 10498 1977 77.4 60.62 -13.96 -12.65 74.59 73.27 5773 5671 10221 10040 1978 88.1 64.21 -17.32 -17.17 81.53 81.38 7183 7170 10436 10418 1979 89 97.13 -5.95 -15.62 103.08 112.75 9174 10035 10721 11727 1980 97.3 121.43 -6.84 -6.83 128.27 128.26 12481 12480 12481 12480 1981 113.8 87.03 -24.62 -24.58 111.65 111.60 12705 12700 10664 10660 1982 116.7 64.62 -19.96 -13.09 84.58 77.71 9871 9069 6802 6249 1983 102 92.82 -92.63 -92.65 185.45 185.47 18916 18918 10409 10410 1984 92.6 80.66 -42.43 -41.26 123.10 121.92 11399 11290 4890 4843 Table S Calculation of Transfer effects.. .Value-added approach. Year sheep OD VAD VAD1 VAD1* VAD-VADI VAD-VAD* DTDN TTDN DTDR TTDR 1960 18.8 2.64 0.57 -1.03 2.06 3.67 39 69 250 443 1961 18.9 2.95 -2.22 -2.49 5.17 5.44 98 103 624 657 1962 19.3 1.34 -2.78 -4.96 4.12 6.30 80 122 507 774 1963 19.1 10.24 1.70 -2.12 8.54 12.36 163 236 1009 1460 1964 22.5 22.15 11.99 11.44 10.16 10.71 229 241 1394 1470 1965 25.6 15.21 7.60 6.34 7.61 8.87 195 227 1143 1332 1966 26.1 22.41 8.59 6.79 13.81 15.62 361 408 2003 2265 1967 21.6 24.22 8.49 7.20 15.73 17.02 340 368 1859 2011 1968 17.5 20.56 2.46 -2.30 18.09 22.86 317 400 1650 2085 1969 18.4 35.89 11.98 2.72 23.90 33.17 440 610 2190 3038 1970 19.2 34.84 14.57 8.86 20.27 25.98 389 499 1885 2417 OD 1971 18 59.69 32.14 24.84 27.55 34.84 496 627 2232 2823 ON 1972 18 73.22 45.05 35.22 28.18 38.00 507 684 2152 2902 1973 19.9 98.13 60.68 49.60 37.45 48.53 745 966 2898 3756 1974 18.2 125.34 77.37 76.46 47.97 48.88 873 890 2732 2784 1975 17.8 141.23 87.36 86.83 53.87 54.40 959 968 2584 2609 1976 18.6 170.19 94.87 94.97 75.33 75.22 1401 1399 3163 3158 1977 19.9 194.86 117.15 99.58 77.71 95.28 1546 1896 2738 3357 1978 18.6 192.19 112.94 85.61 79.24 106.58 1474 1982 2142 2880 1979 18.5 262.07 157.35 155.78 104.72 106.28 1937 1966 2264 2298 1980 20.1 293.20 176.44 138.80 116.76 154.40 2347 3103 2347 3103 1981 19.7 166.80 99.30 82.67 67.50 84.12 1330 1657 1116 1391 1982 21.5 177.72 120.04 90.53 57.67 87.18 1240 1874 855 1292 1983 22.8 156.03 13.32 -63.08 142.71 219.10 3254 4996 1790 2749 1984 21.9 139.34 109.88 15.25 29.46 124.09 645 2718 277 1166 Tabte 4 Calculation of Transfer effects... Value-added approach. ............................................................................... ......P0TATOES..... year GF VAF VAF1 VAF1* VAF-VAF1 VAF-VAF* DTFN TTFN DTFR TTFR ............................................................................... 1960 1041.3 0.11 0.11 -0.09 -0.00 0.20 -2 207 -2 216 1961 1055.6 0.06 0.06 -0.09 0.00 0.15 0 163 0 168 1962 893.5 0.40 0.40 0.27 0.00 0.13 1 117 1 120 1963 1144.8 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.01 0.00 13 5 13 5 1964 1143.4 0.08 0.07 -0.10 0.01 0.18 13 203 13 200 1965 888.0 0.67 0.66 0.46 0.01 0.21 10 184 10 175 1966 923.3 0.95 0.94 0.76 0.01 0.19 11 172 10 154 1967 1295.7 0.11 0.10 -0.07 0.01 0.18 15 232 13 205 1968 1083.1 0.21 0.19 0.18 0.02 0.02 23 26 20 22 1969 1126.4 0.68 0.66 0.78 0.02 -0.11 24 -118 20 -95 1970 1220.0 0.22 0.20 0.24 0.01 -0.02 17 -22 13 -17 1971 1123.9 0.61 0.59 0.64 0.02 -0.03 22 -38 16 -28 1972 1138.9 1.16 1.14 1.20 0.02 -0.04 18 -41 13 -28 1973 1086.2 1.43 1.41 1.53 0.02 -0.10 20 -113 13 -71 1974 1114.5 1.63 1.58 1.62 0.05 0.00 55 4 28 2 1975 1012.4 2.85 2.85 3.02 -0.00 -0.18 -3 -178 -1 -78 1976 918.1 4.83 4.69 5.06 0.14 -0.24 130 -216 47 -79 1977 1200.6 4.17 4.05 5.10 0.12 -0.93 144 -1121 41 -321 1978 1127.8 1.84 1.57 2.27 0.26 -0.43 297 -489 70 -115 1979 1020.6 6.15 5.88 5.41 0.27 0.74 277 760 52 144 1980 1117.9 4.37 3.85 4.84 0.52 -0.47 581 -521 94 -84 1981 829.2 6.35 5.75 6.84 0.60 .0.50 497 -411 67 -56 1982 982.8 7.51 7.08 9.25 0.44 -1.74 431 -1711 48 -191 1983 905.3 7.14 6.72 9.57 0.42 -2.43 379 -2197 34 -195 1984 1038.0 13.10 13.11 16.76 -0.01 -3.67 -12 -3807 -1 -264 Table V4: CaIcutation of Transfer effects ...Vatue-added approach. rice year OF VAF VAF1 VAF1* VAF-VAF1 VAF-VAF* DTFN TTFN DTFR TTFR ------------- ------- ----- ? ..............---------------------------- 1960 151.2 0.57 0.52 0.16 0.05 0.40 7 61 8 64 1961 177.4 0.68 0.58 0.31 0.10 0.37 18 65 18 68 1962 173.5 0.77 2.12 1.83 -1.35 -1.06 -235 -184 -242 -190 1963 166.3 0.79 0.80 0.81 -0.00 -0.02 -1 -4 -1 --4 1964 181.4 0.95 0.75 0.42 0.21 0.53 37 97 37 95 1965 138.8 0.98 0.38 0.11 0.61 0.87 84 120 80 114 1966 154.0 1.14 0.77 0.54 0.38 0.61 58 93 52 84 1967 146.0 1.34 1.10 0.73 0.24 0.61 34 89 30 79 1968 149.0 1.52 1.09 1.07 0.44 0.45 65 67 55 56 1969 175.8 1.61 0.56 0.75 1.05 0.86 184 151 148 121 1970 194.7 1.66 0.77 0.83 0.89 0.84 173 163 136 127 1971 161.6 1.79 2.23 2.32 -0.44 -0.54 -71 -87 -52 -63 1972 163.9 1.60 0.49 0.58 1.10 1.01 181 166 124 114 1973 167.6 1.62 2.29 2.49 -0.67 -0.87 -113 -146 -71 -92 o 1974 129.5 2.46 5.35 5.50 -2.89 -3.05 -374 .395 -189 -200 1975 132.7 3.12 3.93 4.18 -0.81 -1.06 -108 -140 -47 -61 1976 97.2 3.78 3.45 3.76 0.32 0.01 32 1 12 0 1977 101.7 3.03 3.78 5.00 -0.75 -1.96 -76 -200 -22 -57 1978 134.9 4.53 4.98 6.39 -0.45 -1.87 -61 -252 -14 -59 1979 145.3 6.12 4.94 4.38 1.18 1.74 171 253 32 48 1980 154.8 7.20 3.85 5.16 3.35 2.04 519 315 84 51 1981 111.9 7.76 11.54 13.51 -3.78 -5.75 -423 -643 -57 -87 1982 143.4 6.96 6.24 8.89 0.72 -1.93 103 -277 11 -31 1983 109.1 9.44 3.51 6.84 5.92 2.60 646 284 58 25 1984 134.1 15.15 7.93 12.10 7.23 3.06 969 410 67 28 Table F4: Calculation of Transfer effects.. .Value-added approach. wheat year QF VAF VAF1 VAFI* VAF-VAFI VAF-VAF* DTFN TTFN DTFR TTFR 1960 492.1 1.28 0.32 0.07 0.96 1.21 470 596 489 620 1961 429.6 1.28 0.33 0.13 0.95 1.14 407 491 421 508 1962 645 1.33 0.42 0.27 0.92 1.07 591 688 609 708 1963 592 1.35 0.25 0.26 1.10 1.09 654 648 654 648 1964 471.9 1.35 0.41 0.18 0.94 1.17 446 554 440 546 1965 612.3 1.55 0.09 -0.09 1.46 1.64 897 1007 850 955 1966 312 1.54 0.23 0.08 1.30 1.45 407 453 366 407 1967 637.2 1.60 0.39 0.16 1.21 1.44 774 919 685 812 1968 747.5 1.57 0.08 0.08 1.49 1.49 1115 1116 940 941 1969 453.6 1.58 -0.08 0.04 1.66 1.54 754 698 607 562 1970 548.2 1.58 0.31 0.35 1.27 1.23 697 676 546 530 1971 793.7 1.92 0.11 0.17 1.81 1.75 1436 1391 1045 1013 1972 604.3 1.90 0.45 0.51 1.45 1.38 875 837 600 574 1973 516.9 1.91 2.23 2.39 -0.33 -0.49 -168 -251 -106 -158 00 1974 533.6 2.25 3.38 3.48 -1.13 -1.23 -603 -655 -305 -332 1975 601.2 2.12 2.58 2.75 -0.46 -0.62 -275 -374 -120 -163 1976 685.6 2.38 1.66 1.83 0.71 0.54 490 373 179 136 1977 224.3 2.46 1.05 1.67 1.40 0.78 314 176 90 50 1978 249.9 3.30 1.09 1.80 2.22 1.50 554 375 130 88 1979 247.8 5.77 2.00 1.64 3.77 4.13 934 1024 177 193 1980 429.5 6.37 1.49 2.34 4.88 4.03 2096 1729 339 280 1981 315.2 6.03 2.20 3.02 3.83 3.01 1208 948 164 129 1982 424.5 5.11 -0.37 0.87 5.48 4.23 2326 1797 259 200 1983 326.8 6.84 -1.30 0.66 8.14 6.18 2659 2020 237 180 1984 465.6 11.53 0.85 3.36 10.68 8.17 4974 3805 345 264 Table r5: Calculation of Transfer effects.. .Value-added approach. Year .....MILK..... ax VAX VAXI VAX1* VAX-VAXI VAX-VAX* DTXN TTXN DTXR TTXR 1960 329.1 0.57 0.61 0.46 -0.04 0.11 -12 37 -13 38 1961 355.9 0.46 0.46 0.33 -0.01 0.13 -2 47 -2 49 1962 345.1 0.48 0.48 0.35 -0.00 0.13 -1 45 -1 47 1963 351.1 0.51 0.48 0.35 0.04 0.16 12 58 12 58 1964 320 0.73 0.69 0.54 0.04 0.19 12 59 12 58 1965 365.7 0.60 0.59 0.44 0.01 0.16 5 59 5 56 1966 356.8 0.80 0.78 0.63 0.02 0.17 9 61 8 55 1967 348.2 1.42 0.90 0.75 0.53 0.67 183 234 162 207 1968 404.3 1.40 0.83 0.69 0.57 0.71 231 286 195 241 1969 444.1 1.40 0.83 0.71 0.57 0.69 254 306 204 247 1970 458.1 1.40 0.86 0.74 0.54 0.66 248 304 194 238 1971 432.7 1.81 1.51 1.39 0.30 0.42 128 180 93 131 1972 446.5 1.88 1.52 1.41 0.35 0.47 158 209 109 144 1973 462.1 1.79 1.32 1.21 0.47 0.58 218 268 137 169 C 1974 483.7 2.77 1.89 1.71 0.88 1.06 426 515 216 261 1975 514.6 3.77 3.41 3.18 0.36 0.59 186 303 81 132 1976 528.2 4.99 4.31 4.07 0.67 0.91 356 483 130 176 1977 559.9 5.15 4.57 4.27 0.58 0.88 327 493 94 141 1978 568.9 7.83 7.22 6.87 0.61 0.96 350 547 82 128 1979 656.2 8.15 7.44 6.94 0.71 1.21 468 796 88 150 1980 734.5 7.39 5.14 4.46 2.25 2.93 1654 2150 267 348 1981 798.6 6.89 4.00 3.16 2.89 3.73 2304 2977 313 404 1982 792.6 7.58 5.89 4.87 1.69 2.71 1342 2152 150 240 1983 793.9 8.46 3.23 1.60 5.23 6.86 4151 5450 369 485 1984 779.5 3.80 3.58 1.78 0.22 2.02 173 1573 12 109 Table FS: Caiculation of Transfer effects...Value-added approach. Year tomatoes QX VAX VAX1 VAX1* VAX-VAX1 VAX-VAX* DTXN TTXN DTXR TTXR 1960 55 0.36 0.36 0.30 -0.00 0.06 -0 3 .0 4 1961 75.6 0.36 0.36 0.32 -0.00 0.04 -0 3 .0 3 1962 147.8 0.37 0.37 0.33 -0.00 0.03 .0 5 .0 5 1963 187.5 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.00 -0.00 0 -0 0 -0 1964 263 0.36 0.36 0.31 0.00 0.06 0 15 0 15 1965 413 0.36 0.36 0.31 0.00 0.05 1 21 1 20 1966 515 0.36 0.36 0.32 0.00 0.04 1 22 1 19 1967 798.8 0.37 0.36 0.30 0.00 0.07 1 52 1 46 1968 866.8 0.36 0.36 0.35 0.01 0.01 4 8 4 7 1969 826.6 0.37 0.36 0.39 0.02 -0.01 13 -10 10 .8 1970 733.6 0.39 0.36 0.37 0.03 0.03 24 19 19 15 1971 624.7 0.43 0.36 0.37 0.06 0.05 40 33 29 24 1972 813.7 0.44 0.36 0.37 0.07 0.07 59 54 41 37 1973 849 0.52 0.51 0.54 0.00 -0.02 3 -20 2 -12 1974 714.4 1.22 0.66 0.67 0.56 0.54 403 389 204 197 1975 826.1 1.14 0.73 0.77 0.41 0.36 335 300 146 131 1976 493.2 1.11 0.93 1.00 0.18 0.10 87 51 32 19 1977 665.8 1.12 1.09 1.32 0.03 -0.21 19 -138 5 -40 1978 631.6 1.31 1.11 1.33 0.20 -0.01 128 -9 30 -2 1979 553.2 1.71 1.21 1.12 0.50 0.59 279 325 53 61 1980 456.6 2.34 1.32 1.55 1.02 0.79 466 363 75 59 1981 394.8 2.53 1.67 1.92 0.86 0.61 339 241 46 33 1982 523.1 3.30 2.85 3.44 0.45 -0.14 234 -74 26 -8 1983 557.8 3.84 3.48 4.24 0.35 -0.40 198 -223 18 -20 1984 729.241 4.59 3.73 4.43 0.86 0.16 627 117 44 8 Table F5: Calculation of Transfer effects... Vatue-added approach. ...................................................................... Year beef Ox VAX VAXI VAXI* VAX-VAXi VAX-VAX* DTXN TTXN DTR TTXR ...... ........... .................................................... 1960 40.3 -0.96 -5.69 -8.93 4.73 7.96 191 321 198 334 1961 44.4 -1.29 *7.67 -10.02 6.38 8.73 283 388 293 401 1962 50.2 -1.99 -8.58 -11.03 6.58 9.03 330 454 340 467 1 1963 46.8 -1.32 -9.95 -11.71 8.64 10.39 404 486 404 486 1964 42.9 -0.74 -5.72 -9.25 4.98 8.51 214 365 211 360 1965 58.1 -1.83 -6.01 -9.35 4.19 7.52 243 437 231 415 1966 60.5 1.27 -6.38 -9.52 7.64 10.79 463 653 415 586 1967 49.9 3.69 -7.43 -11.16 11.12 14.85 555 741 491 655 1968 57.9 2.97 -10.99 -13.11 13.97 16.09 809 932 681 785 1969 79.2 3.41 -10.12 -11.54 13.53 14.95 1072 1184 863 953 1970 87.2 4.90 -5.61 -7.36 10.52 12.26 917 1069 718 837 1971 74.2 10.00 -0.61 -2.20 10.61 12.21 787 906 573 659 1972 73 12.58 1.61 -0.27 10.97 12.85 801 938 549 644 1973 81.2 26.13 2.87 1.87 23.26 24.26 1889 1970 1188 1239 1 1974 84.3 29.74 2.12 0.61 27.62 29.13 2329 2456 1178 1243 1975 97.7 26.53 -13.71 -15.47 40.23 42.00 3931 4103 1712 1788 1976 79.3 42.84 -14.44 -15.81 57.28 58.64 4542 4650 1658 1697 1977 77.4 60.62 -13.96 -12.65 74.59 73.27 5773 5671 1653 1623 1978 88.1 64.21 -17.32 -17.17 81.53. 81.38 7183 7170 1687 1684 1979 89 97.13 -5.95 -15.62 103.08 112.75 9174 10035 1734 1896 1980 97.3 121.43 -6.84 -6.83 128.27 128.26 12481 12480 2018 2018 1981 113.8 87.03 -24.62 -24.58 111.65 111.60 12705 12700 1724 1724 1982 116.7 64.62 -19.96 -13.09 84.58 77.71 9871 9069 1100 1010 1983 102 92.82 -92.63 -92.65 185.45 185.47 18916 18918 1683 1683 1984 92.6 80.66 -42.43 -41.26 123.10 121.92 11399 11290 791 783 Tabte F6: Calcutation of Transfer effects... Vatue-added appoach. Year .......WINE...... OD VAD VADI VAD1* VAD-VADi VAD-VAD* DTDN TTDN DTDR TTDR 1960 1187.7 2.21 2.21 1.88 -0.00 0.33 -2 394 .2 410 1961 1437.5 2.71 2.71 2.49 -0.00 0.22 -1 311 -1 321 1962 2008.4 1.93 1.93 1.76 -0.00 0.17 -1 340 -1 351 1963 1809.9 1.60 1.60 1.61 0.00 -0.01 8 -24 8 -24 1964 2135.8 1.60 1.60 1.36 0.00 0.24 10 516 10 509 1965 2050.2 1.55 1.55 1.34 0.00 0.21 9 429 9 407 1966 1071.6 2.33 2.33 2.11 0.00 0.22 5 239 4 215 1967 1049.5 3.39 3.39 2.92 0.00 0.47 5 495 4 438 1968 1787.7 3.14 3.13 3.10 0.01 0.04 17 77 14 65 1969 1306.2 4.33 4.32 4.53 0.01 -0.19 12 -251 10 -202 1970 1411.4 3.75 3.74 3.78 0.01 -0.03 9 -41 7 -32 1971 1217.7 4.60 4.59 4.67 0.01 -0.07 11 -82 8 -60 1972 1422.6 5.58 5.57 5.59 0.01 -0.01 11 -12 7 .8 1973 1419.9 6.62 6.61 6.85 0.01 -0.23 13 -324 8 -204 1974 2083.9 4.70 4.68 4.81 0.02 -0.11 49 -238 25 -121 1975 682.8 5.49 5.50 5.80 -0.00 -0.31 -2 -210 -1 -91 1976 1128.3 7.45 7.36 7.91 0.09 -0.46 96 -521 35 -190 1977 692.6 13.90 13.83 16.32 0.07 -2.42 51 -1678 15 -480 1978 792.1 29.11 28.94 33.01 0.17 -3.90 134 -3092 32 -726 1979 1903.7 13.95 13.77 13.08 0.17 0.86 331 1638 63 310 1980 1550 16.12 15.81 17.83 0.31 -1.71 481 -2649 78 -428 1981 1261.7 27.27 26.91 30.00 0.36 -2.73 455 -3443 62 -467 1982 1316.1 22.85 22.57 26.59 0.28 -3.74 368 -4919 41 -548 1983 1201.1 25.18 24.97 29.53 0.21 -4.35 254 -5220 23 -464 1984 1101.8 26.69 26.71 30.75 -0.02 -4.07 -22 -4483 -2 -311 Table R: Calculation of Transfer effects.. .Value-added approach. .....................7............................................... Year corn O VAD VADI VAD1* VAD-VAD1 VAD-VAD* DTDN TTDH DTOR TTDR .................................................................... 1960 466.4 1.26 0.64 0.45 0.63 0.82 292 380 303 395 1961 632 1.08 0.88 0.74 0.20 0.34 127 217 131 224 1962 598.9 1.19 0.94 0.82 0.25 0.37 147 220 151 227 1963 523.4 1.18 0.79 0.80 0.39 0.38 202 196 202 196 1964 596.5 1.15 0.81 0.63 0.34 0.52 201 308 198 304 1965 458.6 1.64 0.93 0.76 0.72 0.88 329 405 312 384 1966 564.7 1.48 0.94 0.81 0.54 0.67 303 380 272 341 1967 576.8 1.46 0.95 0.75 0.51 0.71 292 412 258 364 1968 547.9 1.47 0.91 0.90 0.56 0.57 306 311 258 262 1969 552.6 1.45 0.89 0.99 0.56 0.46 308 255 248 205 1970 581.4 1.36 1.16 1.19 0.20 0.18 117 103 92 81 1971 526.4 1.83 1.07 1.11 0.76 0.72 398 377 290 274 1972 518.5 1.82 0.86 0.89 0.96 0.93 496 480 340 329 1973 508.6 1.67 1.62 1.72 0.05 -0.04 27 -23 17 -14 1974 485.5 2.72 3.68 3.79 -0.96 -1.07 -466 -519 -236 -262 1975 451.3 3.70 2.47 2.61 1.23 1.09 556 490 242 213 1976 378.5 3.91 2.29 2.48 1.62 1.43 612 540 224 197 1977 441.9 4.39 2.24 2.84 2.16 1.55 953 687 273 197 1978 449.4 4.93 2.36 2.98 2.57 -1.95 1155 878 271 206 1979 461.4 5.37 3.21 2.93 2.16 2.44 995 1124 188 212 1980 489.2 6.21 3.23 3.94 2.98 2.27 1458 1109 236 179 1981 376.7 8.15 4.93 5.77 3.22 2.39 1213 899 165 122 1982 421.2 8.28 3.07 4.23 5.21 4.05 2194 1706 244 190 1983 424.4 14.36 6.24 8.27 8.12 6.09 3446 2587 307 230 1984 481.1 19.62 10.96 13.41 8.66 6.20 4165 2984 289 207 Table F6: Calculation of Transfer effects... Value-added approach. Year sheep OD VAD VADI VAD1* VAD-VAD1 VAD-VAD* DTDN TTDN DTDR TTDR 1960 18.8 2.64 0.57 -1.03 2.06 3.67 39 69 40 72 1961 18.9 2.95 -2.22 -2.49 5.17 5.44 98 103 101 106 1962 19.3 1.34 -2.78 -4.96 4.12 6.30 80 122 82 125 1963 19.1 10.24 1.70 -2.12 8.54 12.36 163 236 163 236 1964 22.5 22.15 11.99 11.44 10.16 10.71 229 241 225 238 1965 25.6 15.21 7.60 6.34 7.61 8.87 195 227 185 215 1966 26.1 22.41 8.59 6.79 13.81 15.62 361 408 324 366 1967 21.6 24.22 8.49 7.20 15.73 17.02 340 368 301 325 1968 17.5 20.56 2.46 -2.30 18.09 22.86 317 400 267 337 1969 18.4 35.89 11.98 2.72 23.90 33.17 440 610 354 491 1970 19.2 34.84 14.57 8.86 20.27 25.98 389 499 305 391 1971 18 59.69 32.14 24.84 27.55 34.84 496 627 361 456 1972 18 73.22 45.05 35.22 28.18 38.00 507 684 348 469 1973 19.9 98.13 60.68 49.60 37.45 48.53 745 966 469 607 1974 18.2 125.34 77.37 76.46 47.97 48.88 873 890 442 450 1975 17.8 141.23 87.36 86.83 53.87 54.40 959 968 418 422 1976 18.6 170.19 94.87 94.97 75.33 75.22 1401 1399 511 511 1977 19.9 194.86 117.15 99.58 77.71 95.28 1546 1896 443 543 1978 18.6 192.19 112.94 85.61 79.24 106.58 1474 1982 346 466 1979 18.5 262.07 157.35 155.78 104.72 106.28 1937 1966 366 372 1980 20.1 293.20 176.44 138.80 116.76 154.40 2347 3103 379 502 1981 19.7 166.80 99.30 82.67 67.50 84.12 1330 1657 180 225 1982 21.5 177.72 120.04 90.53 57.67 87.18 1240 1874 138 209 1983 22.8 156.03 13.32 -63.08 142.71 219.10 3254 4996 290 444 1984 21.9 139.34 109.88 15.25 29.46 124.09 645 2718 45 189 Tabte F7:input subsidies .................................................................... year rice OF ICF ICF1 ICF* ICF-ICF1 ICF-ICF* DTFN TTFN DTFR TTFR .................................................................... 1960 151.2 2.04 2.04 2.15 0.00 -0.11 0 -16 0 -17 1961 177.4 2.04 2.05 2.20 -0.01 -0.16 -2 -29 -2 -30 1962 173.5 1.97 1.99 2.06 -0.02 -0.08 -3 -14 -3 -15 1963 166.3 2.01 2.08 2.09 -0.08 -0.08 -13 -14 -13 -14 1964 181.4 2.01 2.08 2.16 -0.08 -0.16 -14 -28 -14 -28 1965 138.8 2.03 2.10 2.18 -0.08 -0.15 -11 -21 -10 -20 1966 154 2.08 2.15 2.20 -0.08 -0.12 -12 -19 -11 -17 1967 146 2.00 2.08 2.11 -0.08 -0.11 -11 -16 -10 -14 1968 149 2.03 2.16 2.14 -0.14 -0.11 -20 -17 -17 -14 1969 175.8 2.02 2.16 2.05 -0.14 -0.03 -24 -5 -19 -4 1970 194.7 2.05 2.13 2.08 -0.08 -0.04 -15 -7 -12 -6 1971 161.6 2.00 2.10 2.05 -0.10 -0.04 -16 .7 -12 .5 1972 163.9 2.02 2.11 2.01 -0.08 0.02 -14 3 -9 2 1973 167.6 2.00 2.09 2.01 -0.09 -0.01 -14 -1 -9 -1 1974 129.5 2.57 2.85 2.94 -0.28 -0.37 -36 -47 -18 -24 1975 132.7 3.05 3.05 3.17 0.00 -0.12 0 -16 0 -7 1976 97.2 3.04 3.39 3.56 -0.34 -0.51 -33 -50 -12 -18 1977 101.7 4.34 4.58 4.70 -0.24 -0.36 -25 -37 -7 -11 1978 134.9 5.45 5.82 5.77 -0.37 -0.31 -49 -42 -12 -10 1979 145.3 6.63 7.01 7.12 -0.38 -0.49 -55 -71 -10 -13 1980 154.8 8.02 9.42 9.47 -1.40 -1.45 -217 -225 -35 -36 1981 111.9 10.50 12.01 12.46 -1.51 -1.96 -169 -219 -23 -30 1982 143.4 15.05 15.62 16.18 -0.57 -1.14 -81 -163 -9 -18 1983 109.1 19.48 21.48 21.59 -1.99 -2.11 -218 -230 -19 -20 1984 134.1 27.05 27.04 26.50 0.00 0.55 1 73 0 5 Table 7:input subsidies YEAR wheat QF ICF ICF1 ICF* ICF-ICFI ICF-ICF* DTFN TTFN DTFR TTFR 1960 492.1 1.69 1.69 1.75 0.00 -0.06 2 -30 2 -31 1961 429.6 1.69 1.70 1.81 -0.07 -0.12 -4 -50 -4 -51 1962 645 1.64 1.65 1.69 -0.02 -0.06 -11 -37 -11 -38 1963 592 1.67 1.75 1.76 -0.08 -0.09 -50 -55 -50 -55 1964 471.9 1.67 1.75 1.80 -0.08 -0.13 -40 -60 -39 -59 1965 612.3 1.69 1.77 1.81 -0.08 -0.13 -52 -78 -49 -74 1966 312 1.72 1.81 1.83 -0.08 -0.11 -26 -33 -24 -30 1967 637.2 1.66 1.74 1.75 -0.08 -0.09 -54 -56 -48 -49 1968 747.5 1.69 1.84 1.82 -0.15 -0.13 -114 -100 -96 -84 1969 453.6 1.68 1.83 1.76 -0.15 -0.08 -69 -35 -56 -28 1970 548.2 1.68 1.77 1.74 -0.09 -0.06 -50 -33 -39 -26 1971 793.7 1.63 1.75 1.71 -0.12 -0.08 -94 -62 -69 -45 1972 604.3 1.65 1.75 1.68 -0.10 -0.02 -59 -14 -41 -9 1973 516.9 1.64 1.75 1.69 -0.10 -0.05 -54 -26 -34 -16 1974 533.6 2.01 2.33 2.40 -0.32 -0.39 -171 -209 -87 -106 1975 601.2 2.82 2.81 2.93 0.01 -0.11 4 -67 2 -29 1976 685.6 2.56 3.10 3.26 -0.53 -0.70 -367 -477 -134 -174 1977 224.3 3.59 4.01 4.18 -0.41 -0.58 -92 -131 -26 -38 1978 249.9 4.29 5.05 5.09 -0.77 -0.80 -191 -200 -45 -47 1979 247.8 5.45 6.24 6.30 -0.79 -0.85 -196 -210 -37 -40 1980 429.5 6.49 8.57 8.73 -2.08 -2.24 -893 -964 -144 -156 1981 315.2 8.66 10.97 11.48 -2.31 -2.82 -729 -888 -99 -121 1982 424.5 12.82 14.06 14.79 -1.24 -1.97 -526 -836 -59 -93 1983 326.8 16.96 19.37 19.85 -2.41 -2.89 -787 -945 -70 -84 1984 465.6 23.41 23.39 23.34 0.02 0.07 8 32 1 2 Table IF7: Calculation of Transfer effects... input subsidy effects. Year ......POTATOES..... OF ICF ICFI ICF* ICF-ICF1 ICF-ICF* DTFN TTFN DTFR TTFR 1960 1041.30 1.04 1.04 1.12 0.00 -0.08 1.70 -85.28 1.77 -88.68 1 1961 1055.60 1.04 1.04 1.14 -0.00 -0.10 -0.23 -106.70 -0.24 -110.32 1962 893.50 1.00 1.00 1.05 -0.00 -0.05 -1.38 -46.31 -1.43 -47.68 1963 1144.80 1.02 1.03 1.04 -0.01 -0.01 -13.31 -16.69 -13.31 -16.69 1964 1143.40 1.02 1.03 1.10 -0.01 -0.08 -13.29 -88.76 -13.11 -87.52 1965 888.00 1.03 1.04 1.11 -0.01 -0.07 -10.29 -65.15 -9.76 -61.79 1966 923.30 1.06 1.07 1.11 -0.01 -0.05 -10.68 -48.72 -9.60 -43.76 1967 1295.70 1.02 1.03 1.07 -0.01 -0.05 -15.15 -68.91 -13.40 -60.95 1968 1083.10 1.03 1.05 1.04 -0.02 -0.01 -23.40 -11.88 -19.78 -10.01 1969 1126.40 1.03 1.05 0.98 -0.02 0.05 -24.44 55.28 -19.67 44.50 1970 1220.00 1.03 1.05 1.02 -0.01 0.01 -16.99 14.56 -13.31 11.41 1971 1123.90 1.00 1.02 0.98 -0.02 0.02 -21.75 18.35 -15.83 13.35 1 1972 1138.90 1.01 1.03 0.97 -0.02 0.04 -18.46 48.15 -12.66 33.03 1973 1086.20 0.99 1.01 0.96 -0.02 0.03 -20.03 37.28 -12.60 23.44 1974 1114.50 1.35 1.40 1.44 -0.05 -0.09 -54.95 -102.60 -27.81 -51.92 1975 1012.40 1.53 1.53 1.59 0.00 -0.06 2.83 -56.30 1.23 -24.53 1976 918.10 1.51 1.65 1.73 -0.14 -0.21 -129.60 -196.82 -47.30 -71.84 1977 1200.60 2.11 2.23 2.22 -0.12 -0.10 -143.81 -124.54 -41.17 -35.65 1978 1127.80 2.59 2.86 2.74 -0.26 -0.15 -296.97 -166.95 -69.77 -39.22 1979 1020.60 3.13 3.40 3.50 -0.27 -0.37 -277.09 -378.86 -52.36 -71.59 1980 1117.90 3.73 4.25 4.14 -0.52 -0.41 -581.31 -455.06 -93.99 -73.58 1981 829.20 4.99 5.59 5.69 -0.60 -0.69 -497.23 -575.91 -67.48 -78.16 1982 982.80 6.95 7.38 7.40 -0.44 -0.45 -430.63 -446.71 -47.98 -49.7 1983 905.30 9.87 10.29 9.89 -0.42 -0.02 -379.12 -18.74 -33.73 -1.67 1984 1038.00 13.66 13.65 12.91 0.01 0.76 11.67 785.37 0.81 54.48 Tabte F8: Calculation of Transfer effects ...input subsidy effects. ...................................... ........................................ Year tomatoes QX ICX 1CX1 ICX* ICX-CX1 ICX-ICX* DTXN TTXN DTXR TTXR 1960--------5----. .... .0 -0----------.1 0 ---------- ------ 1960 55 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.00 -0.01 0 -0 0 -1 1961 75.6 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.00 -0.01 0 -1 0 -1 1962 147.8 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.00 -0.00 0 -1 0 -1 1963 187.5 0.18 0.18 0.18 -0.00 -0.00 -0 -0 -0 -0 1964 263 0.18 0.18 0.18 -0.00 -0.01 -0 -2 -0 -2 1965 413 0.18 0.18 0.19 -0.00 -0.01 .1 -4 .1 . 1966 515 0.18 0.18 0.19 -0.00 -0.01 -1 -3 -1 -3 1967 798.8 0.17 0.18 0.18 -0.00 -0.01 -1 -4 -1 -4 1968 866.8 0.18 0.18 0.18 -0.01 -0.00 -4 .3 .4 -2 1969 826.6 0.18 0.18 0.17 -0.01 0.00 -4 4 -3 3 1970 733.6 0.18 0.18 0.18 -0.00 0.00 -2 1 -1 1 1971 624.7 0.17 0.18 0.17 -0.00 0.00 -3 1 -2 0 1972 813.7 0.17 0.18 0.17 -0.00 0.01 -2 5 -2 3 1973 849 0.17 0.18 0.17 -0.00 0.00 -3 3 -2 2 1974 714.4 0.22 0.23 0.24 -0.01 -0.02 -10 -15 -5 -8 1975 826.1 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.00 -0.01 4 -5 2 -2 1976 493.2 0.25 0.29 0.30 -0.04 -0.05 -18 -25 -6 -9 1977 665.8 0.35 0.38 0.39 -0.03 -0.04 -19 -24 -5 -7 1978 631.6 0.43 0.49 0.48 -0.06 -0.06 -40 -35 -9 -8 1979 553.2 0.53 0.59 0.60 -0.06 -0.07 -35 -41 -7 -8 1980 456.6 0.62 0.76 0.76 -0.14 -0.14 -64 -63 -10 -10 1981 394.8 0.82 0.98 1.01 -0.16 -0.19 -62 -75 -8 -10 1982 523.1 1.17 1.27 1.30 -0.10 -0.13 -51 -70 -6 -8 1983 557.8 1.59 1.71 1.70 -0.11 -0.11 -64 -60 -6 -5 1984 729.241 2.20 2.17 2.11 0.03 0.09 22 64 2 4 Table F8: Calculation of Transfer effects... input subsidy effects. ..................................................................... Year .........MILK......... OX ICX ICX1 ICx* ICX-ICx1 ICx-ICX* DTXM TTXN DTXR TTXR ..................................................................... 1960 329.10 1.43 1.39 1.54 0.04 -0.11 12.33 -36.85 12.82 -38.33 1961 355.90 1.45 1.45 1.58 0.01 -0.13 2.05 -47.49 2.12 -49.10 1962 345.10 1.49 1.49 1.62 0.00 -0.13 1.11 -45.27 1.15 -46.61 1963 351.10 1.56 1.59 1.72 -0.04 -0.16 -12.37 -57.53 -12.37 -57.53 1964 320.00 1.60 1.64 1.79 -0.04 -0.19 -11.85 -59.26 -11.69 -58.44 1965 365.70 1.66 1.67 1.82 -0.01 -0.16 -5.13 -59.29 -4.86 -56.23 1966 356.80 1.70 1.72 1.87 -0.02 -0.17 -8.52 -61.03 -7.65 -54.82 1967 348.20 1.68 1.70 1.85 -0.03 -0.17 -8.76 -60.26 -7.74 -53.30 1968 404.30 1.70 1.77 1.91 -0.07 -0.21 -28.98 -84.01 -24.42 -70.77 1969 444.10 1.70 1.77 1.89 -0.07 -0.19 -31.76 -84.32 -25.57 -67.88 1970 458.10 1.70 1.74 1.86 -0.04 -0.16 -18.91 -75.07 -14.81 -58.80 1971 432.70 1.69 1.69 1.81 0.00 -0.12 1.55 -50.29 1.13 -36.60 1972 446.50 1.72 1.68 1.79 0.05 -0.07 20.28 -30.65 13.91 -21.03 1973 462.10 1.81 1.88 1.99 -0.07 -0.18 -32.78 -83.37 -20.61 -52.43 1974 483.70 2.13 2.51 2.69 -0.38 -0.56 -184.44 -273.00 -93.34 -138.16 1975 514.60 2.97 3.03 3.26 -0.06 -0.29 -31.88 -148.58 -13.89 -64.73 1976 528.20 2.85 3.23 3.47 -0.37 -0.61 -197.82 -324.51 -72.20 -118.44 1977 559.90 3.80 4.08 4.38 -0.28 -0.58 -158.91 -325.20 -45.49 -93.09 1978 568.90 4.68 4.99 5.34 -0.31 -0.66 -178.90 -376.01 -42.03 -88.34 1979 656.20 5.86 6.27 6.77 -0.41 -0.91 -270.72 -599.29 -51.16 -113.24 1980 734.50 7.12 8.57 9.25 -1.45 -2.13 -1066.18 -1562.53 -172.39 -252.65 1981 798.60 9.58 11.27 12.11 -1.69 -2.53 -1345.95 -2018.80 -182.67 -273.99 1982 792.60 12.77 13.26 14.28 -0.49 -1.51 -391.18 -1200.40 -43.59 -133.76 1983 793.90 19.64 17.27 18.90 2.37 0.74 1882.88 583.62 167.54 51.93 1984 779.50 26.22 25.44 27.24 0.78 -1.02 606.93 -793.64 42.10 -55.05 Table V8: CaLculation of Transfer effects... input subsidy effects. YEAR beef X ICX iCX1 ICX* ICX-ICX1 ICX-iCX* DTXN TTXN DTXR TTXR 1960 40.3 21.34 20.70 22.80 0.64 -1.46 26 -59 27 -61 1961 44.4 21.76 21.64 23.63 0.12 -1.87 5 -83 6 .86 1962 50.2 22.45 22.36 24.27 0.10 -1.81 5 -91 5 -94 1963 46.8 23.52 23.92 25.79 -0.41 -2.28 -19 -107 -19 -107 1964 42.9 25.22 25.63 27.71 -0.41 -2.48 -18 -107 -17 -105 1965 58.1 26.06 26.04 28.13 0.01 -2.07 1 -121 1 -114 1966 60.5 26.35 26.54 28.61 -0.18 -2.26 -11 -136 -10 -123 1967 49.9 25.98 26.19 28.22 -0.21 -2.24 -10 -112 -9 -99 1968 57.9 26.70 27.53 29.48 -0.84 -2.78 -48 -161 -41 -136 1969 79.2 26.72 27.55 29.26 -0.83 -2.54 -66 -201 -53 -162 1970 87.2 26.64 27.11 28.88 -0.48 -2.24 -41 -195 -32 -153 1971 74.2 26.69 26.23 27.96 0.46 -1.27 34 -94 25 -69 1972 73 26.98 25.83 27.45 1.15 -0.48 84 -35 58 -24 1973 81.2 27.47 28.47 30.08 -1.00 -2.61 -81 -212 -51 -133 1974 84.3 32.07 37.90 40.60 -5.83 -8.53 -492 -719 -249 -364 1975 97.7 44.12 45.18 48.53 -1.05 -4.41 -103 -431 -45 -188 1976 79.3 42.28 47.76 51.32 -5.48 -9.04 -434 -717 -158 -262 1977 77.4 52.68 56.75 61.09 -4.08 -8.41 -315 -651 -90 -186 1978 88.1 66.62 71.09 76.29 -4.47 -9.67 -394 -852 -92 -200 1979 89 84.90 90.88 98.01 -5.98 -13.10 -532 -1166 -101 -220 1980 97.3 96.07 116.56 126.37 -20.49 -30.30 -1994 -2949 -322 -477 1981 113.8 129.03 152.76 164.61 -23.73 -35.57 -2700 -4048 -366 -549 1982 116.7 175.08 182.28 196.85 -7.20 -21.77 -840 -2541 -94 -283 1983 102 267.18 290.07 313.64 -22.89 -46.46 -2335 -4739 -208 -422 1984 92.6 355.21 344.76 371.02 10.44 -15.81 967 -1464 67 -102 Table 9: Calculation of Transfer effects... input subsidy effects ................. ..... .... ........................................ Year ..........WINE......... OD ICD ICDI lCD* ICD-ICD1 ICD-ICD* DTDM TTDN DTDR TTR . .. ................ ... .. ........................................ 1960 1187.7 0.63 0.63 0.67 0.00 -0.04 2.23 -50.42 2.32 -52.43 1961 1437.5 0.63 0.63 0.69 0.00 -0.06 1.41 -79.29 1.46 -81.98 1962 2008.4 0.61 0.61 0.63 0.00 -0.03 0.62 -53.50 0.64 -55.09 1963 1809.9 0.62 0.62 0.63 -0.00 -0.01 -8.21 -11.82 -8.21 -11.82 1964 2135.8 0.62 0.62 0.66 -0.00 -0.04 -9.69 -84.01 *9.56 -82.84 1965 2050.2 0.63 0.63 0.66 -0.00 -0.04 -9.24 -76.40 -8.76 -72.46 1966 1071.6 0.65 0.65 0.67 -0.00 -0.03 -4.80 -27.64 -4.31 -24.83 1967 1049.5 0.62 0.62 0.64 -0.00 -0.02 -4.81 -25.87 -4.26 -22.88 1968 1787.7 0.63 0.64 0.63 -0.01 -0.00 -16.77 -5.17 -14.12 -4.36 1969 1306.2 0.63 0.64 0.60 -0.01 0.03 -12.27 39.27 -9.88 31.61 1970 1411.4 0.63 0.64 0.62 -0.01 0.01 -8.53 12.35 -6.68 9.67 1971 1217.7 0.62 0.63 0.61 -0.01 0.01 -11.04 13.73 -8.03 9.99 1972 1422.6 0.62 0.63 0.59 -0.01 0.03 -10.72 37.50 -7.35 25.73 1973 1419.9 0.61 0.62 0.59 -0.01 0.02 -12.76 29.50 -8.03 18.55 1974 2083.9 0.81 0.83 0.86 -0.02 -0.05 -48.71 -101.60 -24.65 -51.41 1975 682.8 0.90 0.89 0.93 0.00 -0.03 2.29 -21.38 1.00 -9.31 1976 1128.3 0.87 0.96 1.00 -0.09 -0.13 -95.99 -145.15 -35.04 -52.98 1977 692.6 1.22 1.29 1.30 -0.07 -0.07 -50.83 -51.84 -14.55 -14.84 1978 792.1 1.52 1.69 1.64 -0.17 -0.12 -134.11 -91.57 -31.51 -21.51 1979 1903.7 1.81 1.99 2.04 -0.17 -0.23 -331.06 -429.69 -62.56 -81.19 1980 1550.0 2.13 2.44 2.39 -0.31 -0.26 -480.50 -401.45 -77.69 -64.91 1981 1261.7 2.80 3.16 3.23 -0.36 -0.43 -455.07 -537.85 -61.76 -73.00 1982 1316.1 3.85 4.13 4.16 -0.28 -0.32 -368.30 -416.28 -41.04 -46.38 1983 1201.1 5.31 5.52 5.35 -0.21 -0.04 -253.71 -49.61 -22.57 -4.41 1984 1101.8 7.35 7.33 6.99 0.02 0.36 21.98 402.11 1.52 27.89 Table F9: Calculation of Transfer effects... input subsidy effects Year corn QD ICD 1C01 ICD* ICD-ICD1 ICD-ICD* DTDN TTDN DTDR TTDR .... ..... .. ... ..... .... ............................................ 1960 466.4 0.99 0.98 1.03 0.00 -0.04 2 -17 2 -17 1961 632 0.99 0.99 1.06 -0.00 -0.07 -1 -42 .1 -43 1962 598.9 0.95 0.96 0.98 -0.01 -0.03 .3 -18 -3 -19 1963 523.4 0.97 1.01 1.02 -0.04 -0.04 -19 -21 -19 -21 1964 596.5 0.97 1.01 1.04 -0.04 -0.06 -22 -39 -21 .38 1965 458.6 0.99 1.02 1.05 -0.04 -0.06 -17 -30 .16 -28 1966 564.7 1.01 1.05 1.06 -0.04 -0.05 -20 -29 -18 -26 C 1967 576.8 0.97 1.01 1.01 -0.04 -0.04 -21 -24 -19 -21 1968 547.9 0.99 1.06 1.04 -0.07 -0.06 -37 -31 -31 -26 1969 552.6 0.98 1.05 1.00 -0.07 -0.02 -38 -13 -30 -10 1970 581.4 0.98 1.02 1.00 -0.04 -0.02 -24 -14 -19 -11 1971 526.4 0.94 1.00 0.98 -0.06 -0.03 -30 -17 -22 -13 1972 518.5 0.95 1.00 0.96 -0.05 -0.00 -24 -1 -17 -1 1973 508.6 0.95 1.00 0.97 -0.05 -0.02 -27 -10 -17 -6 1974 485.5 1.16 1.31 1.35 -0.15 -0.19 -73 -92 -37 -47 1975 451.3 1.66 1.65 1.72 0.01 -0.06 4 -27 2 -12 1976 378.5 1.44 1.79 1.88 -0.35 -0.44 -132 -166 -48 -61 1977 441.9 1.99 2.27 2.36 -0.29 -0.37 -126 -164 -36 -47 1978 449.4 2.30 2.90 2.90 -0.60 -0.61 -269 -272 -63 -64 1979 461.4 2.95 3.57 3.61 -0.62 -0.66 -285 -304 -54 -57 1980 489.2 3.43 4.74 4.81 -1.31 -1.38 -641 -673 -104 -109 1981 376.7 4.63 6.12 6.38 -1.49 -1.75 -562 .660 -76 -90 1982 421.2 6.81 7.80 8.16 -0.99 -1.35 -416 -569 -46 -63 1983 424.4 9.37 10.58 10.78 -1.21 -1.41 -514 -599 -46 -53 1984 481.1 12.88 12.85 12.77 0.03 0.12 16 57 1 4 Table f9: Calculation of Transfer effects... input subsidy effects YEAR sheep OD ICD ICD1 ICD* ICD-ICD1 ICD-ICD* DTDN TTDN DTDR TTDR 1960 18.8 37.59 37.03 41.61 0.57 -4.02 11 -75 11 -79 1961 18.9 37.93 38.02 42.08 -0.09 -4.14 -2 -78 .2 -81 1962 19.3 38.20 38.45 42.55 -0.25 -4.35 -5 -84 -5 -87 1963 19.1 39.43 41.24 45.16 -1.81 -5.73 -35 -109 -35 -109 1964 22.5 40.88 42.69 47.25 -1.81 -6.37 -41 -143 -40 -141 1965 25.6 42.06 43.50 48.05 -1.44 -5.99 -37 -153 -35 -145 1966 26.1 43.01 44.62 49.20 -1.60 -6.19 -42 -161 -38 -145 1967 21.6 42.29 43.91 48.66 -1.62 -6.38 -35 -138 *31 -122 C 1968 17.5 42.82 46.13 50.41 -3.30 -7.59 -58 -133 -49 -112 1969 18.4 43.08 46.38 50.24 -3.29 -7.16 -61 -132 -49 -106 1970 19.2 42.94 44.86 48.74 -1.92 -5.81 -37 -111 -29 -87 1971 18 42.98 44.51 48.32 -1.53 -5.34 .-28 -96 -20 -70 1972 18 44.00 44.56 48.32 -0.57 -4.32 -10 -78 -7 -53 1973 19.9 46.01 48.50 52.04 -2.49 -6.02 -49 -120 -31 -75 1974 18.2 53.52 64.05 69.29 -10.53 -15.77 -192 .287 -97 -145 1975 17.8 76.27 77.23 83.51 -0.96 -7.24 -17 -129 -7 -56 1976 18.6 72.69 84.06 90.63 -11.38 -17.94 -212 -334 -77 -122 1977 19.9 96.51 104.77 112.63 -8.26 -16.12 -164 -321 -47 -92 1978 18.6 117.06 127.96 137.86 -10.89 -20.80 -203 -387 -48 -91 1979 18.5 149.24 161.76 177.14 -12.52 -27.90 -232 -516 -44 -98 1980 20.1 176.01 220.54 240.48 -44.53 -64.47 -895 -1296 -145 -210 1981 19.7 234.37 283.98 306.87 -49.61 -72.49 -977 -1428 -133 -194 1982 21.5 330.43 347.64 375.79 -17.20 -45.36 -370 -975 -41 -109 1983 22.8 457.23 514.66 560.81 -57.43 -103.58 -1309 -2362 -116 -210 1984 21.9 617.96 608.53 661.83 9.43 -43.87 206 -961 14 -67 - 305 - ANNEX G Estimation of Consumer Price Index for Different Groups - 306 - II. Rural and Urban CPI 1. The estimation of the different CPI with and without policies was based on the following expressions: n n CPIt = L. 3 PI. + (1 - c. ) PNA () g,g P ,t p pg t j=l p=1 CPI = C L. L PI. x PW. / P. + (1 C . 8 )PNA (2) g,t - p Pg j,t j,t j,t - jp pg t p=1 p=l n n CPI = .B PI. xPW. / + (1- c. a ) PNA (3) g,t - jp Pg 3,t j,t J,t L p pg t p=1 P-l where, . j= weight of each j agricultural output in the correspondent JP food product p P = weight of each food product p in the food consumption of each social group g PI. = agricultural price index of each j output and t year J,t P. PW. and PW. = private, world and social prices of each 3t j,t ,t j output and t year PNAt U non-agricultural price index of each year t PNAt = non-agricultural price index without indirect price policies of each year t 2. We estimated, using 1973-74 Consumption Budget Census, seven different CPI. concerning the following social groups: 3,t - 307 - - small-medium size farmers - larp size farmers - farm labor - non-agricultural rural labor - low-income urban group - medium-income urban group - high-income urban group. The a and s are presented in Table Gl. Table Gi. CI Parameters Fariners ltural labor . Urban Income groups et Sma ll and Products medim l.arj>e Far Noni-agr etiltture I.l tIlium. liigh 1iheat 0.-33 0.0694 0.0167 0.0717 0.0385 0.0497 0.0108 0.0167 Ikice 0.25 0.0170 0.0042 0.0176 0.0097 0.0104 0.0078 0.0042 Potatoes 1.0 1/0.77(2) 0.0420 0.0093 0.0434 0.0214 0.0227 0.0171 0.0093 Wine 1.0 /0.77(2) 0.0834 0.0195 0.0861 0.0449 0.0478 0.0359 0.0195 Hilk 0.40 0.0251 0.0183 0.0259 0.0351 0.0033 0.0281 0.0153 Beef 0.32 0.0235 0.0329 0.0243 0.0753 0.0024 0.0603 0.0329 Sieep 0.49 0.0104 0.0042 0.01074 0.0097 0.0010 0.0078 0.0042 Others 1.0(1 /0. 34(2) 0.0693 0.0295 0.0716 0.06711 0.0723 0.0543 0.0245 (1) Farins and farin labor (2) Other groups - 309 - TABLE G2 POLICY EFFECTS TABLE (SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZED FARMS) YEAR CPI CPt1 CPI TOTAL DIRECT INDIRECT 1960 0.16 0.15 0.16 -1.8% -4.4% 2.6% 1961 0.17 0.16 0.17 1.4% *3.6% 5.0% 1962 0.17 0.17 0.17 T.5% -0.1% 1.5% 1963 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.4% -0.3% 0.7% 1964 0.18 0.18 0.18 1.92 0.5% 1.4% 1965 0.18 0.18 0.18 -1.1% *2.8% 1.7% 1966 0.19 0.18 0.18 -5.1% -6.0% 0.8% 1967 0.19 0.19 0.19 -4.4% -4.0% -0.4% 1968 0.20 0.21 0.20 -0.7% 0.1% -0.8% 1969 0.22 0.21 0.20 -7.82 *4.7% *3.2% 1970 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.92 2.1% -1.2% 1971 0.23 0.23 0.23 -1.3% 0.4% -1.7% 1972 0.26 0.25 0.24 -6.6% -3.0% -3.5% 1973 0.28 0.28 0.28 -0.2% 1.7% -1.92 1974 0.34 0.37 0.38 14.4% 10.8% 3.6Z 1975 0.37 0.37 0.39 5.3% 1.0% 4.42 1976 0.44 0.44 0.46 3.4% -1.5% 4.92 1977 0.57 0.54 0.56 -1.5% -3.9% 2.4% 1978 0.70 0.67 0.67 -4.5% -4.0% -0.5% 1979 0.85 0.91 0.92 8.7% 7.4% 1.2% 1980 1.00 1.04 1.04 4.0% 3.6% 0.4% 1981 1.22 1.16 1.20 -1.7% -4.9% 3.2% 1982 1.45 1.38 1.41 -2.7% -5.3% 2.6% 1983 1.77 1.66 1.64 -7.1% -6.1% -1.0% 1984 2.34 2.13 2.08 -11.2% *9.2% -2.0% 1985 2.02 2.02 1.92 -4.8% 0.0% -4.8% 60-64 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.7% -1.5% 2.2% 65-73 0.22 0.22 0.21 -2.9% -1.6%, -1.3% 74-75 0.35 0.37 0.39 9.6% 5.6% 4.0% 76-84 1.15 1.10 1.11 -3.5% -4.0% 0.6% 60-8 0.55 0.54 0.54 -2.5% -3.0% 0.6% WSSWWasassassaaWWWWaaWassatassuuaaassassasmassassaWWasassasatassassssass - 310 - TABLE G2 (continued) POLICY EFFECTS TABLE (FARM LABOR) YEAR CPI CPIl CPI* TOTAL DIRECT INDIRECT 1960 0.16 0.16 0.17 1.7% -1.5% 3.2% 1961 0.17 0.17 0.17 *1.2% -1.4% 0.3% 1962 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.9% -0.7% 1.6% 1963 0.17 0.17 0.17 -1.1. -0.8% -0.3% 1964 0.18 0.18 0.18 2.4% -0.6% 2.9% 1965 0.18 0.18 0.18 1.1% -1.4% 2.5% 1966 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.0% -2.3% 2.3% 1967 0.20 0.19 0.20 2.4% -1.9% 4.3% 1968 0.20 0.20 0.20 -0.5% -1.1% 0.6% 1969 0.21 0.21 0.21 -3.2% -2.3% *0.9% 1970 0.22 0.22 0.22 -0.6% -0.7% 0.1% 1971 0.23 0.23 0.23 -1.1% -1.0% -0.0% 1972 0.25 0.25 0.25 -1.5% -1.9% 0.4% 1973 0.27 0.26 0.26 -1.4% *0.95 -0.5% 1974 0.33 0.33 0.33 -0.3% 1.5% -1.7% 1975 0.38 0.37 0.36 -3.9% -1.3% -2.6% 1976 0.44 0.43 0.42 -3.6% -1.7% -1.92 1977 0.56 0.55 0.51 -9.3% -2.7% -6.6% 1978 0.69 0.67 0.63 -8.6% -2.5% -6.1% 1979 0.82 0.82 0.84 2.5% 0.2% 2.3% 1980 1.00 0.99 0.94 -5.6% -0.6% -5.0% 1981 1.20 1.16 1.12 -6.8% -3.0% -3.8% 1982 1.45 1.41 1.33 -8.5% -2.6% -5.9% 1983 1.78 1.73 1.61 -9.5% -2.8% -6.6% 1984 2.29 2.19 2.07 -9.6% -4.3% -5.3% 1985 2.45 2.45 2.35 -4.0% 0.0% -4.0% 60-64 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.5% -1.0% 1.5% 65-73 0.22 0.21 0.22 -0.6% -1.5% 0.9% 74-75 0.35 0.35 0.34 -2.2% 0.0% -2.2% 76-84 1.14 1.11 1.05* -7.4% -2.6% -4.8% 60-84 0.55 0.54 0.52 -5.7% -2.2% -3.5% uuauWWWWWWWWWWWsuuauuWWWWWWassammassaWWWWWWWWWWWWaaWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW -311- TABLE G2 (continued) POLICY EfFECTS TABLE (RURAL - NON FARM • LABOR) ........ ......................................... YEAR CP[ CPII CP(* TOTAL OtRECT INIRECT 1960 0.18 0.16 0.17 .9.9% .10.1% 0.2% 1961 0.19 0.17 0.17 -10.7% .9.5% -1.22 1962 0.19 0.18 0.18 -7.8% -7.6% -0.1% 1963 0.19 0.18 0.18 -8.8% -8.7% -0.02 1964 0.20 0.18 0.18 -6.8% .6.9% 0.1% 1965 0.21 0.18 0.18 .12.0% -12.3% 0.3% 1966 0.21 0.19 0.19 -12.2% -12.7% 0.5% 1967 0.22 0.20 0.20 -9.8% -11.0% 1.2% 1968 0.23 0.20 0.20 -10.0% -10.5% 0.5% 1969 0.24 0.21 0.21 -13.4% -13.7% 0.4% 1970 0.24 0.22 0.22 -7.7% -8.2% 0.5% 1971 0.26 0.23 0.23 -13.3% -13.8X 0.5% 1972 0.28 0.25 0.25 .11.8% -12.8% 0.9% 1973 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.1% -0.8% 0.9% 1974 0.35 0.39 0.39 10.8% 11.8% -1.0x 1975 0.40 0.40 0.40 -0.3% 0.8x .1.1% 1976 0.46 0.45 0.44 -3.3% -2.5% -0.8% 1977 0.57 0.55 0.53 -7.1% -4.3% .2.7% 1978 0.71 0.67 0.66 .7.7% -5.2% -2.5% 1979 0.85 0.87 0.88 3.0% 2.3% 0.7% 1980 1.00 1.03 1.01 1.3% 3.1% -1.7% 1981 1.25 1.20 1.19 -5.1% -3.9% -1.3% 1982 1.54 1.41 1.38 -10.6% -8.4% -2.2% 1983 1.96 1.74 1.70 -13.5% -11.3% -2.3% 1984 2.55 2.24 2.20 -13.8% -12.1% -1.7% 1985 1.85 1.85 1.78 -4.0% 0.0% -4.0% 60-64 0.19 0.18 0.17 -8.8% -8.5% -0.2% 65.73 0.24 0.22 0.22 -9.7% -10.4% 0.7% 74.75 0.38 0.40 0.40 4.9% 5.9% -1.1% 76-84 1.21 1.13 1.11 -8.4% -6.7% -1.7% 60-84 0.59 0.55 0.55 -7.9% -6.7% -1.2% - 312 - TABLE G2 (continued) POLICY EFFECTS TABLE (LOW INCOME - URBAN) YEAR CP! CPIl CPI* TOTAL DIRECT INDIRECT 1960 0.17 0.16 0.17 0.7% -2.1% 2.8% 1961 0.17 0.17 0.17 -1.9% -1.7% *0.2% 1962 0.18 0.17 0.18 1.1% -0.2% 1.3% 1963 0.18 0.18 0.18 -0.6% -0.3% -0.3% 1964 0.18 0.18 0.18 2.6% 0.1% 2.5% 1965 0.19 0.18 0.19 0.7% -1.5% 2.2% 1966 0.19 0.19 0.19 -0.5% -2.6% 2.1% 1967 0.20 0.20 0.20 2.3% -1.7% 4.0% 1968 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.7% -0.1% 0.7% 1969 0.22 0.21 0.21 -2.6% -2.2% -0.4% 1970 0.22 0.22 0.22 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 1971 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.0% -0.2% 0.2% 1972 0.26 0.25 0.26 -0.6% -1.4% 0.8% 1973 0.27 0.28 0.28 1.3% 1.3% -0.0% 1974 0.33 0.35 0.35 3,9% 5.8% -1.9% 1975 0.37 0.38 0.37 -1.6% 1.1% -2.7% 1976 0.44 0.44 0.43 -2.3% -0.2% -2.1% 1977 0.56 0.56 0.52 -7.3% -1.0% -6.3% 1978 0.69 0.68 0.64 -7.1% -1.4% -5.6% 1979 0.83 0.86 0.87 5.9% 3.9% 2.0% 1980 1.00 1.02 0.98 -2.2% 2.3% -4.5% 1981 1.20 1.18 1.14 -5.1% -1.4% -3.7% 1982 1.46 1.43 1.35 -7.6% -2.0% -5.6% 1983 1.79 1.74 1.63 -8.7% -2.5% -6.2% 1984 2.30 2.22 2.10 -8.4% -3.5% -4.9% 1985 2.41 2.41 2.31 -4.0% 0.0% -4.0% 60-64 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.4% -0.8% 1.2% 65-73 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.31 -0.7% 1.0% 74-75 0.3S 0.37 0.36 0.9% 3.3% -2.3% 76-84 1.14 1.13 1.07 -5.8% -1.3% -4.5% 60-84 0.55 0.55 0.53 -4.2% -1.0% -3.2% UUmUUWWWWWWUagaU*WWWWWWWWassassassaaWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWassaUUaWesa -313- TABLE G2 (Continued) POLICY EFFECTS TABLE (MIDOLE INCOME - URBAN) .........-............. .......-*. ---...... ...................... YEAR CPI CPl? CPI* TOTAL DIRECT INDIRECT 1960 0.16 0.16 0.17 1.4% -1.6% 3.0% 1961 0.17 0.17 0.17 -1.3% -1.4% 0.0% 1962 0.17 0.17 0.17 1.2% -0.2% 1.4% 1963 0.18 0.17 0.17 -0.6% *0.3% *0.3% 1964 0.18 0.18 0.18 2.7% 0.1% 2.7% 1965 0.18 0.18 0.19 1.2% -1.1% 2.3% 1966 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.1% -2.1% 2.2% 1967 0.20 0.19 0.20 2.7% *1.5% 4.1% 1968 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.4% -0.3% 0.7% 1969 0.22 0.21 0.21 -2.5% -1.9% -0.6% 1970 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.7% 0.4X 0.3X 1971 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.0% -0.1% 0.1% 1972 0.25 0.25 0.25 -0.42 -1.1% 0.62 1973 0.27 - 0.27 0.27 0.2% 0.5% -0.3% 1974 0.33 0.34 0.34 2.1% 4.0% -1.82 1975 0.38 0.38 0.37 -2.22 0.5% -2.6% 1976 0.44 0.44 0.43 -2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 1977 0.56 0.56 0.52 -7.3% -0.9% -6.4% 1978 0.69 0.68 0.64 -6.7% -0.9% -5.8% 1979 0.82 0.84 0.86 5.0% 2.9% 2.12 1980 1.00 1.02 0.97 -3.1% 1.5% -4.7% 1981 1.20 1.18 1.14 -5.1% -1.3% -3.7% 1982 1.45 1.43 1.35 -7.1% -1.4% -5.7% 1983 1.79 1.75 1.66 -8.3% -2.02 -6.3% 1984 2.28 2.22 2.11 -7.8% -2.7% -5.0% 1985 2.39 2.39 2.30 -4.0% 0.0% -4.0% 60-64 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.7% -0.7% 1.3% 65-73 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.2% -0.7% 0.9% 74-7S 0.35 0.36 0.35 -0.2% 2.1% -2.3% 76-84 1.14 1.12 1.07 -5.6% -1.0% -4.6% 60-84 0.55 0.55 0.53 -4.1% -0.8% -3.32 SWSWWasasaausaaWssssssaasassasWS8assassasesassassaW,uauuauumuzusassaasa -314- TABLE G2 (continued) POLICY EFFECTS TABLE (HIGH INCOME - URBAN) YEAR CPI CP1l CPI* TOTAL DIRECT INDIRECT 1960 0.17 0.16 0.17 3.1% -0.8% 4.0% 1961 0.17 0.17 0.18 5.7% -0.7% 6.4% 1962 0.17 0.17 0.18 2.5% -0.1% 2.6% 1963 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.3% -0.2% 0.5% 1964 0.18 0.18 0.18 3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1965 0.18 0.18 0.19 2.4% -0.6% 2.9% 1966 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.5% -1.1% 1.6% 1967 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.0% -0.8% 0.8% 1968 0.20 0.20 0.20 -1.1% -0.1% -1.0% 1969 0.22 0.21 0.20 -5.6% -1.0% -4.6% 1970 0.22 0.22 0.22 -1.6% 0.2% -1.8% 1971 0.23 0.23 0.22 -2.5% -0.0% -2.5% 1972 0.25 0.25 0.24 -5.1% -0.6% -4.5% 1973 0.27 0.27 0.26 *3.1% 0.3% -3.4% 1974 0.33 0.34 0.35 5.3% 2.2% 3.1% 1975 0.38 0.38 0.39 4.4% 0.3% 4.1% 1976 0.44 0.44 0.46 4.6% 0.1% 4.5% 1977 0.56 0.56 0.56 -0.5% -0.4% -0.0% 1978 0.69 0.68 0.66 -3.6% -0.4% -3.2% 1979 0.81 0.83 0.85 4.3% 1.7% 2.6% 1980 1.00 1.01 0.99 -1.5% 0.9% -2.4% 1981 1.19 1.18 1.21 1.2% -0.7% 1.9% 1982 1.45 1.44 1.45 -0.1% -0.7% 0.6% 1983 1.79 1.77 1.71 -4.4% -1.0% -3.3% 1984 2.27 2.24 2.14 -5.7% -1.5% -4.3% 1985 2.52 2.52 2.40 -4.8% 0.0% -4.8% 60-64 0.17 0.17 0.18 2.9% -0.4% 2.9% 65-73 0.22 0.22 0.21 -2.0% -0.4% -2.0% 74-75 0.35 0.36 0.37 4.8% 1.2% 4.8% 76-84 1.13 1.13 1.11 -1.8% -0.5% -1.8% 60-84 0.55 0.55 0.54 -1.2% -0.4% -1.2% - 31$ - ANNEX H Estimation of Farm Income Impacts of Price Interventions through the Use of Representative Farms -316 - 1. Estimation of Farm Income 1.1 The estimation of the nominal on-farm income with (Y ) and without S,t direct (YF and total F. price policies was based on the j,t 3,t following expressions: m Y TVA. (4) =1 m \ 1 yl fJ,,ftit ,t 1 " VA . x VA /IVA. 5 ju1 m TVA. x VA. / VA (6) f,t i=1 where, TVA. = nominal total value added of each j output, 3,f,t f farm and t year, estiI'ated according to the following expression: -VA J=ft PVI. x VAPI. x TVA. (6a) j,f,t 3,t 3,t 3,f,b (a where, PVIjt = production volume index of each regional j output and t year VAPI. = value added price index of each regional j output and t year TVA= total value added of each j output and f farm in - 317 - TVAj total valued added of each j output and f farm . f(t in the base year (1) VAJ,t value added per unit of J output in each t year VA1 = value added without direct price policies effects per unit of J otuput in each t year * VAj J valued added without direct and indirect price policy effects per unit of j output in each t year 1.2 In the analysis of the on-farm income evolution we chose, using the 1979 census data, the five following representative farms: - small-scale (North) - medium-scale (North) - medium-scale (Center) - large-scale (Center) - large-scale (South) with the characteristics-presented in Table DI. 1.3 The estimation of the nominal off-farm income (Y)NFE,t was based on the average weight of the off-farm income on each f farm and the evolution of the representative off-farm wages (non-agricultural labor in the North and the farm labor in the Center). 1.4 The estimation of the different CPI was based on Annex G. (1) We used "1980" (an average from 1979-1980 and 1981) as the base year for the farm value added estimations. Those estimations were adjusted over the time by the PVI taking in account also the 1969 census data and farm value added estimation. - 318 - 2. Policy Distributional Effects 1. The estimation of price policy effects on farm income is based on the following expressions: 1.1 Direct effect, y;' - Yf f,t f,t YD f x 100 (1) 1.2 Indirect effects, Y* -Y Y f,t f,t x 100 If,t Y,t (2) 1.3 Total effects, Y* -Y Y T f't f,t f,t x 100 (3) f,t, f where Yf,t 'f,t and Yf,t are the real income of each f farm and t year in private, world and social prices. 2. The estimation of the farm price policy effects on the rural and urban income distribution is based on 4he following expressions: 2.1 Direct effects, i CPI - CPI - g,t g,t ID x 100 (4) g,t CPI g' 2.2 Indirect effects, CPI - CPI ,1g,t g,t I - I x 100 (5) g,t CPI g,t - 319 - 2.3 Total effects, A CPI - CPI Tt g x 100 (6) g, C CPI g,t where CPI , CPI' and CPI are the with and without g,t g,t g,t direct and total farm price policy effects CPI of each g rural and urban representative social groups. Table H.1 Main Characteristics of Some Representative Portuguese Farms North (1) Center 2) South Small-scale Medium-scale Medium-scale Large-scale Large-scale farm farm farm farm farm % of number of farms in the region 40% 6% 12% 2% 7% % of the area of 4 farms in the region 43% 20% 16% 41% 134% Type of farm Familial Familial Familial Commercial Commercial Total area (ha) 1.4 6.7 6.9 310 335 Irrigated area (ha) 0.9 3.5 1.3 50 3 Number of parcels 4 6 8 5 4 ANU/ha 1.6 0.5 0.25 0.04 0.02 Main outputs milk, beef, milk, beef, rice, tomato; wheat, rice, wheat, beef, maize, wine maize, wine, maize, beef, tomato, maize, sheep, olive potatoes potatoes vegetables beef, forest oil and forest D Off-farm income as % of total income 50% 25% 28% Main off-farm industry activity building industry agriculture - (1) "Entre-Douro e Minho" region (2) "Ribatejo" region (3) "Alentejo" region 1979 Portuguese Farm Census (INE) (Average data from representative farms) H2 POLICY EFFECTS TABLE (SHALL FARM NORTH) (1980 real prices) ................................................................................................ CALCULATED INCOME LEVELS(0e4n) Effect of Policy on Income Level ukt world social TOTAL DIRECT INDIRECT YEAR YR YRI YR* CONTOS z CONTOS 1 CONTOS x 1960 135.2 134.0 124.2 11.00 8.13 1.22 0.90 9.78 7.23 1961 77.3 78.8 68.4 8.83 11.43 -1.56 -2.02 10.39 13.45 1962 188.0 188.4 181.0 7.02 3.73 -0.43 -0.23 7.44 3.96 1963 100.3 97.7 96.0 4.31 4.29 2.59 2.58 1.72 1.72 1964 103.9 101.9 95.5 8.40 8.09 1.95 1.88 6.45 6.21 1965 117.4 115.6 108.9 8.55 7.28 1.87 1.59 6.68 5.69 1966 120.0 117.7 113.0 7.05 5.88 2.31 1.92 4.75 3.95 1967 188.6 190.2 187.5 1.10 0.59 -1.62 -0.86 2.73 1.45 1968 170.9 165.0 166.0 4.94 2.89 5.89 3.45 -0.94 -0.55 1969 128.5 123.7 130.4 -1.91 -1.48 4.89 3.80 -6.79 -5.29 1970 226.6 218.8 222.1 4.56 2.01 7.86 3.47 -3.31 -1.46 1971 163.3 159.7 163.5 -0.20 -0.12 3.68 2.25 -3.88 -2.37 1972 172.4 164.0 171.6 0.83 0.48 8.41 4.88 -7.59 -4.40 1973 235.1 223.7 230.4 4.73 2.01 11.44 4.87 -6.71 -2.85 1974 203.5 183.7 175.2 28.29 13.90 19.79 9.72 8.50 4.18 1975 198.5 191.6 179.5 18.96 9.56 6.81 3.43 12.15 6.12 1976 239.2 231.0 216.1 23.14 9.67 8.25 3.45 14.89 6.23 1977 197.5 192.6 188.1 9.32 4.72 4.86 2.46 4.46 2.26 1978 215.5 221.4 225.2 -9.68 -4.49 -5.97 -2.77 -3.71 -1.72 1979 301.2 276.6 269.8 31.38 10.42 24.59 8.16 6.79 2.25 1980 174.6 150.7 151.1 23.45 13.44 23.89 13.69 -0.44 -0.25 1981 224.7 226.4 217.9 6.85 3.05 -1.68 -0.75 8.53 3.80 1982 213.8 208.6 204.1 9.67 4.52 5.22 2.44 4.45 2.08 1983 164.1 156.2 160.6 3.51 2.14 7.87 4.80 -4.37 -2.66 1984 229.7 249.0 262.0 -32.28 -14.06 -19.34 -8.42 -12.94 -5.63 1985 "0, -04--------.0 W.uO tRR--.uu-can .uu Rkn .......................................................................----................... 60-64 120.9 120.2 113.0 7.9 6.54% 0.8 0.62% 7.2 5.92% 65-73 169.2 164.3 165.9 3.3 1.95% 5.0 2.94% -1.7 -0.99% 74-75 201.0 187.7 177.3 23.6 11.76% 13.3 6.62% 10.3 5.14% 76-84 217.8 212.5 210.5 7.3 3.33% 5.3 2.43% 2.0 0.90% .. .............................................................................. 60-84 179.6 174.7 172.3 7.3 4.05% 4.9 2.73% 2.4 1.32% 112. POLICY EFFkCTS TABLE (MEDIUM FARM - NORTH) (1980 real prices) CALCULATED INCOME LEVELS Effect of Policy on Income Level mkt world social TOTAL DIRECT INDIRECT YEAR YR YR1 YR* CONTOS % CONTOS % CONTOS % ........... ..... .................................................. ....... .......... ............. ........ 1960 311.6 300.0 271.6 40.09 12.86 11.67 3.74 28.42 9.12 1961 143.1 145.0 115.3 27.74 19.39 -1.93 -1.35 29.67 20.74 1962 472.6 474.1 451.9 20.75 4.39 -1.48 -0.31 22.24 4.70 1963 206.9 198.4 193.8 13.02 6.30 8.49 4.11 4.53 2.19 1964 211.9 206.1 186.8 25.15 11.87 5.82 2.75 19.33 9.12 1965 245.7 234.9 215.8 29.87 12.16 10.80 4.40 19.06 7.76 1966 244.4 227.9 214.2 30.19 12.35 16.51 6.75 13.68 5.60 1967 442.8 440.7 431.2 11.60 2.62 2.09 0.47 9.51 2.15 1968 387.1 368.3 370.5 16.60 4.29 18.82 4.86 -2.21 -0.57 1969 254.3 232.5 249.8 4.42 1.74 21.77 8.56 -17.35 -6.83 1970 534.1 515.1 524.2 9.98 1.87 19.04 3.56 -9.06 -1.70 1971 336.2 325.6 335.5 0.72 0.21 10.65. 3.17 -9.94 -2.96 1972 361.9 328.0 345.7 16.26 4.49 33.97 9.39 -17.71 -4.89 1973 539.8 511.5 529.7 10.12 1.87 28.29 5.24 -18.17 -3.37 1974 423.7 389.1 367.6 56.07 13.23 34.54 8.15 21.53 5.08 1975 384.2 367.8 338.5 45.72 11.90 16.40 4.27 29.32 7.63 1976 523.6 494.5 458.1 65.52 12.51 29.08 5.55 36.44 6.96 1977 414.4 390.8 381.1 33.32 8.04 23.65 5.71 9.66 2.33 1978 478.4 490.6 501.0 -22.52 -4.71 -1Z.16 -2.54 -10.35 -2.16 1979 737.4 677.2 658.2 79.18 10.74 60.17 8.16 19.01 2.58 1980 353.7 286.4 288.4 65.31 18.47 67.27 19.02 -1.96 -0.55 1981 508.7 505.7 484.7 24.02 4.72 3.04 0.60 20.98 4.12 1982 478.1 449.9 440.4 37.74 7.89 28.20 5.90 9.54 2.00 1983 333.1 300.3 311.6 21.52 6.46 32.84 9.86 -11.31 -3.40 1984 550.1 595.4 631.7 -81.53 -14.82 -45.20 -8.22 -36.33 -6.60 1985 -0.0----00 0.0--00------RR- - -- ERR---00 ER* .................................................................................................... 60-64 269.2 264.7 243.9 25.4 9.42% 4.5 1.68% 20.8 7.74% 65-73 371.8 353.8 357.4 14.4 3.88% 18.0 4.84% -3.6 -0.96% 74-75 403.9 378.5 353.0 50.9 12.60% 25.5 6.31% 25.4 6.29% 76-84 486.4 465.6 461.7 24.7 5.08% 20.8 4.27% 4.0 0.81% 60-84 395.1 378.2 371.9 23.2 5.88% 16.9 4.28% 6.3 1.60% 112. POLICY EFFECTS TABLE (HiEDIU14 FARK CENtTER)(980 real prices) CALCULATED INCIt LEVELS Effect of Policy on income Level skt world social TOTAL DIRECT INDIRECT YEAR YR YRI YR* CONTOS I CONTOS x CONTOS % 1960 282.5 274.5 245.0 37.56 13.29 7.99 2.83 29.57 10.47 1961 335.0 326.7 273.4 61.59 18.38 8.29 2.48 53.29 15.91 1962 A 347.7 328.5 304.4 43.33 12.46 19.27 5.54 24.05 6.92 1963 327.3 298.5 294.9 32.40 9.90 28.86 8.82 3.54 1.08 1964 360.7 337.7 310.2 50.54 14.01 23.07 6.40 27.47 7.62 1965 359.7 340.7 314.6 45.05 12.53 18.94 5.27 26.11 7.26 1966 367.1 368.3 353.3 13.76 3.75 -1.23 -0.34 14.99 4.09 1967 424.4 408.5 394.3 30.16 7.11 15.88 3.74 14.28 3.36 1968 500.6 462.5 469.6 30.94 6.18 38.06 7.60 -7.11 -1.42 1969 494.8 481.0 523.6 -28.79 -5.82 13.72 2.77 -42.51 -8.59 1970 517.4 478.5 492.4 25.08 4.85 38.93 7.52 -13.85 -2.68 1971 548.6 504.2 524.6 23.99 4.37 44.36 8.09 -20.37 -3.71 1972 580.5 563.0 607.8 -27.33 -4.71 17.47 3.01 -44.80 -7.72 1973 627.6 601.8 636.2 -8.55 -1.36 25.81 4.11 -34.35 -5.47 1974 658.3 573.7 543.6 114.73 17.43 84.65 12.86 30.08 4.57 1975 633.0 591.2 562.0 70.93 11.21 41.73 6.59 29.19 4.61 1976 640.2 621.6 580.6 59.52 9.30 18.57 2.90 40.95 6.40 1977 655.5 658.1 648.6 6.96 1.06 -2.60 -0.40 9.56 1.46 1978 709.8 711.5 733.3 -23.54 -3.32 -1.77 -0.25 -21.77 -3.07 1979 727.6 649.6 629.8 97.75 13.44 77.94 10.71 19.82 2.72 1980 695.2 633.2 642.5 52.67 7.58 61.98 8.92 -9.31 -1.34 1981 788.4 795.7 766.0 22.42 2.84 -7.29 -0.93 29.71 3.77 1982 693.8 700.6 690.0 3.83 0.55 -6.74 -0.97 10.58 1.52 1983 669.6 664.0 693.8 -24.17 -3.61 5.60 0.84 -29.77 -4.45 1984 858.3 912.8 975.8 -117.49 -13.69 -54.51 -6.35 -62.97 -7.34 1985 -4.0----0;-----0.0 0.0 -4RR--0.00-- 0--ERR- 60-64 330.7 313.2 285.6 45.1 13.63% 17.5 5.29% 27.6 8.34% 65-73 491.2 467.6 479.6 11.6 2.36% 23.5 4.79% -12.0 -2.43% 74-75 645.7 582.5 552.8 92.8 14.38% 63.2 9.79 29.6 4.59% 76-84 715.4 705.3 706.7 8.7 1.21% 10.1 1.42% -1.5 -0.21% 60-84 552.1 531.5 528.4 23.7 4.30% 20.7 3.75% 3.1 0.55% 112. POLICY EFFECTS TABLE (LARGE FARM - CENTER) (1980 real prices) CALCULATED INCOME LEVELS Effect of Policy on income Level mkt world social TOTAL DIRECT INDIRECT YEAR YR YR1 YR* CONTOS % CONTOS Z CONTOS % 1960 2110.8 1696.4 1275.5 835.30 39.57 414.41 19.63 420.89 19.94 1961 2585.0 2189.3 1578.0 1007.02 38.96 395.67 15.31 611.35 23.65 1962 2722.8 2756.6 2364.0 358.82 13.18 -33.83 -1.24 392.66 14.42 1963 2508.8 1927.8 1910.1 598.65 23.86 580.93 23.16 17.72 0.71 1964 2692.4 2220.2 1771.8 920.65 34.19 472.16 17.54 448.49 16.66 1965 2639.4 1919.2 1559.6 1079.88 40.91 720.24 27.29 359.64 13.63 1966 2428.7 1989.7 1759.7 668.97 27.55 438.93 18.07 230.05 9.47 1967 3146.0 2442.2 2100.4 1045.60 33.24 703.76 22.37 341.84 10.87 1968 3670.8 2783.2 2836.8 833.94 22.72 887.55 24.18 -53.61 -1.46 1969 3430.5 2537.5 2980.7 449.77 13.11 893.02 26.03 -443.25 -12.92 1970 3476.6 2714.9 2866.8 609.86 17.54 761.74 21.91 -151.87 -4.37 1971 3761.9 2989.1 3218.1 543.84 14.46 772.78 20.54 -228.94 -6.09 1972 3805.5 2946.8 3338.2 467.31 12.28 858.69 22.56 -391.37 -10.28 1973 4510.2 4360.7 4794.5 -284.27 -6.30 149.51 3.31 -433.79 -9.62 1974 4975.4 4902.2 4653.8 321.59 6.46 73.21 1.47 248.38 4.99 1975 3623.7 3005.3 2870.5 753.24 20.79 618.41 17.07 134.83 3.72 1976 3355.6 2687.8 2508.0 847.66 25.26 667.82 19.90 179.84 5.36 1977 3856.1 3333.2 3485.6 370.45 9.61 522.92 13.56 -152.46 -3.95 1978 5106.6 4539.8 4966.3 140.27 2.75 566.83 11.10 -426.55 -8.35 1979 5495.3 4703.3 4419.8 1075.47 19.57 791.96 14.41 283.51 5.16 1980 6110.8 5085.8 5410.6 700.12 11.46 1024.97 16.77 -324.85 -5.32 1981 5611.2 5161.3 5109.3 501.86 8.94 449.90 8.02 51.96 0.93 1982 5112.0 4548.2 4699.9 412.09 8.06 563.73 11.03 -151.64 -2.97 1983 5719.0 4868.6 5315.4 403.56 7.06 850.40 14.87 -446.85 -7.81 1984 6743.3 5975.3 6590.9 152.35 2.26 767.97 11.39 -615.62 -9.13 1985 n.0n-nRR nR n n n 0.: 60-64 2524.0 2158.1 1779.9 744.1 29.48% 365.9 14.50% 378.2 14.99% 65-73 3430.0 2742.6 2828.3 601.7 17.54% 687.4 20.04% -85.7 -2.50% 74-75 4299.5 3953.7 3762.1 537.4 12.50% 345.8 8.04% 191.6 4.46% 76-84 5234.4 4544.8 4722.9 511.5 9.77% 689.6 13.17% -178.1 -3.40% 60-84 3967.9 3371.4 3375.4 592.6 14.93% 596.5 15.03% -4.0 -0.10% 112. POLICY EFFECTS TALE (LARGE FARH - SOUTH) (1980 real prices) CALCULATED INCOME LEVELS Effect of Policy on Income Level skt world social TOTAL DIRECT INDIRECT YEAR YR YRI YR* CONTOS % CONTOS X CONTOS 2 1960 1369.8 731.2 522.7 847.09 61.84 638.64 46.62 208.45 15.22 1961 1602.1 1025.4 848.8 753.27 47.02 576.67 35.99 176.60 11.02 1962 1307.8 524.3 374.4 933.37 71.37 783.46 59.91 149.91 11.46 1963 1461.4 753.4 732.9 728.56 49.85 707.99 48.45 20.57 1.41 1964 1024.9 447.4 296.5 728.46 71.07 577.57 56.35 150.89 14.72 1965 1648.7 582.8 418.7 1229.98 74.61 1065.84 64.65 164.15 9.96 1966 924.6 326.8 239.0 685.65 74.16 597.83 64.66 87.83 9.50 1967 1733.7 822.0 642.0 1091.67 62.97 911.72 52.59 179.95 10.38 1968 1669.3 372.0 348.4 1320.96 79.13 1297.33 77.71 23.63 1.42 1969 1320.4 492.5 528.0 792.41 60.01 827.85 62.70 -35.44 -2.68 1970 1502.8 671.6 673.5 829.30 55.18 831.15 55.31 -1.85 -0.12 1971 2013.2 470.0 495.8 1517.38 75.37 1543.14 76.65 -25.75 -1.28 1972 1685.4 778.6 814.0 871.48 51.71 906.81 53.80 -35.34 -2.10 1973 2019.5 1922.6 2046.7 -27.22 -1.35 96.85 4.80 -124.07 -6.14 1974 2367.4 2474.2 2428.5 -61.15 -2.58 -106.77 -4.51 45.62 1.93 1975 2401.6 2234.4 2201.2 200.36 8.34 167.13 6.96 33.23 1.38 1976 2020.0 1407.0 1406.1 613.94 30.39 612.96 30.34 0.98 0.05 1977 1460.4 984.6 1035.3 425.15 29.11 475.82 32.58 -50.67 -3.47 1978 1884.9 1357.6 1454.7 430.20 22.82 527.35 27.98 -97.14 -5.15 1979 2466.4 1791.4 1696.2 770.27 31.23 675.07 27.37 95.20 3.86 1980 2201.8 1305.6 1411.2 790.59 35.91 896.28 40.71 -105.68 -4.80 1981 1362.8 951.5 953.1 409.72 30.06 423.28 31.06 -13.57 -1.00 1982 3628.0 2953.1 3084.3 543.68 14.99 674.97 18.60 -131.29 -3.62 1983 1275.5 699.4 767.1 508.42 39.86 576.09 45.17 -67.67 -5.31 1984 1778.8 1107.7 1274.5 504.29 28.35 671.09 37.73 -166.80 -9.38 1985 -0.0----00- -0.0- 0.00- ERR- 0.00--ERR- 0.00--ERR- 60-64 1353.2 696.3 555.1 798.1 58.98% 656.9 48.54% 141.3 10.442 65-73 1613.1 715.5 689.6 923.5 57.25% 897.6 55.65% 25.9 1.61% 74-75 2384.5 2354.3 2314.9 69.6 2.92% 30.2 1.27% 39.4 1.65Z 76-84 2008.7 1394.0 1453.6 555.1 27.64% 614.8 30.60% -59.6 -2.97% 60-84 1765.3 1087.0 1067.7 697.5 39.51% 678.2 38.42% 19.3 1.09% - 326 - ANNEX I Estimation of Value Added in the Absence of Direct and Indirect Price Interventions - 327 - I. Definitions of Prices and Value Added a. Market and Social Prices P. = market price of each j output P. = market price of each i intermediate inputs P world equivalent price of each j tradable outputs cif PW. = P. + internal cost or fob PW. = P - internal cost PWi = world equivalent price of each i tradable intermediate input estimated as PW. J P. market prices of each j non-tradable output without direct policies * P= market prices of each i non-tradable intermediate input without direct policies PW. world equivalent price of each j tradable output adjusted to the equilibrium exchange rate in the following way: * - cif * PW = P * E / E + internal costs/ (1+tm) j ] m where, E - equilibrium exchange rate E = official exchange rate to - implicit import tariff PW* - world equivalent price of each i tradable intermediate input * . adjusted to E* by the same way as PW~ - 328 - b. Market and Social Value Added !VA. - market value added of each j output S m VA P - a P j j ij i VAli social non-adjusted value added of each j output VA1 PW - aj aij i1 ii-p+1 (or P. if j is a non-tradable) VA = social adjusted value added of each j output p m VA a PW - a . a P . E /E + (1-a) P*/(l+t) i-3 i-p+l (or P if j is (weight of the traded component a non-tradable) of the non-tradable input) - 329 - II. Methodology Total policy effects (TPE) of each j commodity: TPE. (VA. - VAO ) j 3 3 Output price pplicy direct effects, (OPE) of each j commodity: OPE a (P - PW ) Input price policy direct effects (IPE) of each j commodity: r IPE - (VA - VA1 - (P - PW.) Exchange rate policy effect or indirect policy effect (EPE) of each j commodity: A EPE = (VAl - VA ) Table 1 1. POTATOES(1980 reat prices) .................................................................................................. j .................... PRODUCT PRICE INPUT PRICE EXCHANGE RATE PRICE EFFECT EFFECT EFFECT YEAR P Pu PW* VA VA1 VA* TOTAL % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % 1960 6.83 7.43 6.89 0.65 1.26 0.50 0.15 23.33 -0.59 -90.81 -0.01 -1.49 0.76 115.63 1961 6.30 11.80 10.90 0.34 5.84 4.78 -4.44 -1287.96 -5.50 -1596.91 0.00 0.37 1.06 308.59 1962 8.02 16.33 15.27 2.30 10.60 9.41 -7.12 -310.15 :8.31 -362.04 0.01 0.39 1.18 51.50 1963 6.46 10.84 10.87 0.73 5.04 5.08 -4.36 -600.69 -4.38 -603.80 0.07 9.00 -0.04 -5.89 1964 6.12 10.40 9.56 0.44 4.66 3.66 *3.22 -731.13 -4.28 -972.46 0.06 14.68 1.00 226.64 1965 9.18 9.88 9.20 3.60 4.24 3.42 0.18 5.04 -0.70 -19.48 0.06 1.74 0.82 22.78 1966 10.45 10.56 9.98 4.93 4.98 4.30 0.64 12.92 -0.10 -2.11 0.06 1.22 0.68 13.81 1967 5.67 198 8.32 0.56 3.81 3.01 -2.44 -434.83 -3.31 -588.92 0.06 10.43 0.81 143.66 1968 6.11 12.51 12.51 1.02 7.32 7.31 -6.29 -615.87 -6.40 -626.77 0.11 10.45 0.00 0.45 1969 7.94 11.24 11.91 3.16 6.35 7.11 -3.95 -125.28 -3.30 -104.46 0.10 3.19 -0.76 -24.01 1970 5.66 12.10 12.31 0.99 7.36 7.59 -6.61 -668.42 -6.43 -650.96 0.06 6.38 -0.24 -23.85 1971 7.01 14.11 14.51 2.65 9.67 10.10 -7.45 -281.13 -7.10 -267.73 0.08 3.18 -0.44 -16.57 1972 8.64 7.05 7.21 4.62 2.96 3.17 1.45 31.45 1.59 34.46 0.06 1.40 -0.20 -4.41 C 1973 9.12 11.69 12.25 5.39 7.88 8.50 -3.11 -57.65 -2.56 -47.58 0.07 1.29 -0.61 -11.36 1974 9.10 9.43 9.43 4.97 5.16 5.15 -0.18 -3.63 -0.34 -6.76 0.15 3.03 0.00 0.10 1975 11.61 21.47 21.68 7.55 17.41 17.63 -10.09 -133.65 -9.86 -130.65 -0.01 -0.10 -0.22 -2.90 1976 14.39 18.68 19.08 10.96 14.93 15.33 -4.37 -39.84 -4.29 -39.14 0.32 2.92 -0.40 -3.62 1977 11.20 15.37 17.46 7.43 11.39 13.48 -6.05 -81.43 -4.17 -56.17 0.21 2.88 -2.09 -28.13 1978 6.47 17.69 20.25 2.68 13.52 16.09 -13.41 -500.48 -11.23 -419.07 0.38 14.35 -2.57 -95.77 1979 11.51 21.34 20.13 7.64 17.12 15.91 -8.28 -108.42 -9.83 -128.70 0.34 4.41 1.21 15.87 1980 8.10 8.32 9.05 4.37 4.07 4.78 -0.41 -9.32 -0.22 -5.03 0.52 11.90 -0.71 -16.19 1981 9.56 19.93 21.41 5.35 15.22 16.68 -11.34 -211.90 -10.37 -193.90 0.51 9.45 -1.47 -27.44 1982 9.97 9.16 10.05 5.18 4.07 4.95 0.23 4.50 0.81 15.70 0.30 5.83 -0.88 -17.04 1983 9.52 13.16 15.04 4.00 7.40 9.27 -5.28 -132.05 -3.63 -90.90 0.23 5.87 -1.88 -47.02 1984 11.87 14.01 15.77 5.81 7.95 9.74 -3.93 -67.70 -2.13 -36.73 -0.00 -0.09 -1.79 -30.88 1985 0;oG 0.00 0.00 6.28 6.27 6.24 .0.04 0.62 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.16 0.03. 0.45 AVERAGES 1960-64 6.75 11.36 10.70 0.89 5.48 4.69 -3.80 -581.32 -4.61 -725.20 0.03 4.59 0.79 139.29 1965-73 7.75 10.90 10.91 2.99 6.06 6.06 -3.06 -237.09 -3.15 -252.62 0.07 4.36 0.01 11.17 1974-75 10.35 15.45 15.55 6.26 11.28 11.39 -5.13 -68.64 -5.10 -68.70 0.07 1.47 -0.11 -1.40 1976-84 10.29 15.30 16.47 5.93 10.63 11.80 -5.87 -127.40 -5.01 -105.99 0.31 6.39 -1.17 -27.80 1960-84 8.67 12.94 13.24 3.89 8.01 8.28 -4.39 -252.97 -4.27 -279.64 0.15 4.91 -0.27 21.76 W(&1 19, 69*2 0,0 56*6t #/01 96,9t %72 VS 96*9 15, WI/t 19,51 STS W1 '91/61 999 Wo0 0rL 99*0 00,1t 91,1 9S62 59*z 99,9 0,1 IV6 ?VL1 sz 91 tY9L 91L V 90,01 lV0 057 51,0 0972 99*1 96*%: WZ iT ~ 9z,9 2971 19,1 W%'> U-9961 15,gz 99*0 69*0 WO0 00,0 00*0 0V62 16*0 TYVZ W£1 YV£% WU1 Wit U1I& 0961 S39VU3AV ............................................................................................................................... Ws O rV* 10~ oo- oo?o 00!0 00, 91m1 90* WO ,0 fl* 00,0 00*0 00,0 S961 le" " 9V0 1W02 sfl- W*9z "10 14,05 99*0 WO 691 991 ss,f1 99*Zt ZEIft W61 55,91 99,0 20*92- WI1:- 09'69 521, 1109 tull WO6 19* 9/1, 1 961U , t1 £1,51 126t LVUI OV0 19*9 InO Mst1 (90 W9if ff& 91*1 90 1011/fS Vl 1Wf1 £0,11 Z961 LVI, £50 W6t sly*1 1*0%, 09«0 WK11 917 %9,ý t/t1%e 6CL1 W,41 tilta W% 0961 65'9 19*0 90*5 WO W£1 11*0 WIl1 sill 9119 IV6 1&*1 WS9t 1011I of^£& 6161 Y9, 01,0 20, 9,o* W£91: W 99r9 66' Wol fs*.L Wtt S919 zg*LI 9V91 9161 W%1 Wo LVS WO* 2919 [9* %91 WL1 191L We 61*6 £S's Wst£ 96'91 1161 9z»9 WO W£1 9,0 $0*9 990 RLItz D7 96*1 616 ellt1 6£*91 29,21 091£& 9161 W16 £6*0 WI* 91,0 96*1 09,0 16M1 69*1 01,9 £0*6 66*6 OV9t koU& 9OUL S16t Z¥*9 11*O SVU 91,1 Wet1 19*1 LVO' oY£1 90*9 WS 9*9 WU1: Vplit 96'% 1/16t VY1 * f O 96*1 LIO W1:2 WI1 U*62 10*z 99 119 19 SVUZ 10*Z1 WU: Mt6 611, Y SVO OVO- zo00- 09,91 WII 69'02 W9I £*9 99£9 W£1 W1pt /6*ft IYZ'S 1261 69,1 6*0 56*z 61*0 Z91 s LVZ 2 £91/ W62 ZV£ 16': 9£*9 10*zt 91 09 0161% fi 611 9'0 Ws1 WO 51,5£ z£*2 99,95 £0»£ Wt1 YV*f 0*9 Wz%1 10U 6CU1 6961 zz6 #910 Ws% 910 W,sf 91/7 60,05 01 Wt1 20*9 69,9 %7a1 19Z19 IVSI 9961 96*0t 91,0 1121 £1*0 011% 1WZ Wil/ ZYf ZV£ IVI, YVI. 691e W0tt VsIst 196t IT6L 29*0 96'Z ZV7 00*0 00*0 09*2z S6"0 IVI m * e 919 IVU1 00,f1 00*ft 9961 W0,L2 VQ*O Wz2 »0 00*0 0oO K162 56*0 6VZ 9&*£ YV£ 1t11 at W1 0Ve1 £965 ZOW Z6*0 60'9 12,0 00<0 00*0 96*2z W&1 467 Y9,1 9 W 1z57 96*ZI 96*ZI %961 9VSZ WVO 591.9 02,0 00*0 00,0 WU2 W6O 96'& 69, 69*z fm1t1 911 2 9*1 t 1961 90*91 tele 490- 20*0_ 00*0 00*0 OW6 19*0 W6 t 1 Wz W 16,01 6W1l 6VU1 296t 191 Z610 9ZI1L- fo00- 00*0 00,0 Olff: 99,0 91*1 99,2 f9*Z Wo 9V 601 56*01 196t 0,6e 00*1 59*9_ Zzl- 0010 00,9 å6«ZZ 910 z97 1:91£ oyll WO 68191 69*11 0961 ........................................................................... ................................................... 2 51I253 2 US 91I 5133 2v0 ¥TOI .A MV TA enad M d 0V3X 1343 1333 123441 331Md 31v3 35~2Nx3 3311d ImmaN 331Md ENYGM ................ ............................................................................................................... goli lur 96 Yll-M ZI l ql' Table 13. UINE (1980 reat prices) .................................................................................................................................. PRODUCT PRICE INPUT PRICE EXCHANGE RATE PRICE EFFECT EFFECT EFFECT YEAR P Pu PU* VA VAI VA* TOTAL Z ESC/KG % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % .................................................................................................................................. 1960 16.88 15.09 13.46 13.12 11.83 9.62 3.50 26.70 1.78 13.59 -0.49 -3.71 2.21 16.82 1961 19.14 14.10 13.01 15.52 10.94 9.33 6.19 39.90 5.04 32.49 -0.46 -2.99 1.61 10.39 1962 14.56 15.30 14.48 11.08 12.28 10.95 0.12 1.11 -0.74 -6.72 -0.46 -4.15 1.33 11.99 1963 12.47 16.12 16.65 8.99 13.06 13.14 -4.16 -46.26 -3.65 -40.63 -0.42 -4.72 -0.08 -0.92 1964 12.34 16.35 14.80 8.90 13.32 11.26 -2.36 -26.55 *4.00 -45.00 -0.42 -4.72 2.06 23.17 1965 11.77 16.42 15.17 8.38 13.54 11.70 -3.31 -39.54 -4.64 -55.39 -0.52 -6.15 1.84 22.00 1966 15.50 16.64 15.77 12.14 13.78 12.35 -0.21 -1.70 -1.14 -9.42 -0.50 -4.09 1.43 11.81 1967 20.11 20.91 18.87 17.01 18.29 15.68 1.33 7.81 -0.80 -4.72 -0.48 -2.81 2.61 15.34 1968 18.57 25.62 26.10 15.48 22.97 22.96 -7.48 -48.31 -7.04 -45.50 -0.45 -2.88 0.01 0.07 1969 23.03 25.17 27.83 20.12 22.68 24.92 -4.79 -23.82 -2.14 -10.61 -0.42 -2.09 -2.24 -11.11 1970 19.84 32.85 34.20 16.98 30.50 31.32 -14.34 -84.48 -13.00 -76.59 -0.52 -3.04 -0.82 -4.84 1971 22.73 34.53 36.40 20.05 32.33 33.69 -13.64 -68.05 -11.80 -58.87 -0.48 -2.41 -1.36 -6.78 1972 24.68 37.66 39.94 22.22 35.65 37.47 -15.24 -68.59 -12.98 -58.40 -0.45 -2.01 -1.82 -8.17 1973 27.26 41.17 44.58 24.96 39.36 42.26 -17.31 -69.34 -13.91 -55.75 -0.49 -1.98 -2.90 -11.62 1974 16.82 39.47 39.99 14.35 37.48 37.45 -23.10 -161.00 -22.65 -157.86 -0.48 -3.33 0.03 0.20 1975 16.94 26.40 27.24 14.56 24.56 24.88 -10.32 -70.85 -9.46 -64.97 -0.54 -3.70 -0.32 -2.18 1976 18.89 26.67 27.91 16.91 25.05 25.73 -8.83 -52.20 -7.79 -46.05 -0.35 -2.08 -0.69 -4.06 1977 26.96 35.11 41.77 24.78 33.37 39.45 -14.67 -59.17 -8.15 -32.88 -0.44 -1.77 -6.08 -24.52 1978 44.71 31.78 38.00 42.49 29.87 35.51 6.98 16.43 12.93 30.44 -0.31 -0.72 -5.65 -13.29 1979 19.55 37.66 35.69 17.30 35.78 33.23 -15.92 -92.04 -18.10 -104.62 -0.38 -2.19 2.56 14.78 1980 18.25 38.38 44.44 16.12 36.48 41.98 -25.86 -160.40 -20.13 -124.88 -0.23 -1.43 -5.50 -34.09 1981 25.34 21.84 24.35 22.98 19.73 21.67 1.31 5.70 3.50 15.22 -0.25 -1.10 -1.93 -8.42 1982 18.41 23.94 28.15 15.76 21.65 25.28 -9.52 -60.38 -5.53 -35.10 -0.36 -2.28 -3.63 -23.01 1983 17.07 16.54 20.30 14.10 14.01 17.18 -3.08 -21.84 0.53 3.77 -0.44 -3.13 -3.17 -22.48 1984 15.98 17.60 21.13 12.71 14.92 17.87 -5.15 -40.53 -1.62 -12.74 -0.59 -4.61 -2.95 -23.18 1985 0.00 0.00 0400 329 3.28 3-28 -0:01 0.32 0.00 0-00 0.01 0.37 0-0 0-05 AVERAGES 1960-64 15.08 15.39 14.48 11.52 12.29 10.86 0.66 -1.02 - -0.31 -9.25 -0.45 -4.06 1.43 12.29 1965-73 20.39 27.89 28.76 17.48 25.46 25.82 -8.33 -44.00 -7.50 -41.70 -0.48 -3.05 -0.36 0.75 1974-75 16.88 32.93 33.62 14.46 31.02 31.17 -16.71 -115.92 -16.06 -111.42 -0.51 -3.52 -0.14 -0.99 1976-84 22.80 27.72 31.30 20.35 25.65 28.65 -8.30 -51.60 -4.93 -34.09 -0.37 -2.15 -3.00 -15.36 1960-84 19.91 25.73 27.21 17.08 23.34 24.27 -7.19 -43.90 -5.82 -38.05 -0.44 -2.96 -0.94 -2.88 Table 14. iCtE (1980 real prices) ........................................................................................................................... PRODUCT PRICE INPUT PRICE EXCHANGE RATE PRICE EFFECT EFFECT EFFECT YEAR P PU PW* VA VA1 VA* TOTAL % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % ................................................................................................................................. 1960 15.51 15.21 13.17 3.38 3.10 0.98 2.40 71.03 0.30 8.78 -0.01 -0.39 2.12 62.63 1961 15.59 15.07 13.48 3.89 3.33 1.78 2.11 54.30 0.52 13.25 0.05 1.29 1.55 39.76 1962 15.70 23.55 21.63 4.40 12.16 10.49 -6.09 -138.49 *7.85 -178.44 0.09 2.14 1.66 37.81 1963 15.72 16.17 16.25 4.45 4.47 4.57 -0.12 -2.69 -0.45 -10.10 0.43 9.60 -0.10 -2.19 1964 16.46 15.74 13.89 5.29 4.15 2.33 2.96 55.90 0.72 13.65 0.42 7.99 1.81 34.25 1965 16.25 13.39 12.00 5.31 2.03 0.62 4.69 88.34 2.86 53.94 0.41 7.73 1.42 26.67 1966 16.74 15.18 13.97 5.95 3.99 2.79 3.15 53.02 1.56 26.24 0.39 6.64 1.20 20.14 1967 16.75 15.95 14.07 6.71 5.53 3.66 3.05 45.48 0.80 11.96 0.38 5.69 1.87 27.83 1968 17.49 16.01 16.00 7.50 5.36 5.29 2.21 29.44 1.48 19.70 0.67 8.91 0.06 0.82 1969 16.86 12.63 13.69 7.46 2.60 3.47 3.98 53.44 4.23 56.67 0.63 8.45 -0.87 -11.68 1970 16.81 13.14 13.45 7.53 3.50 3.75 3.79 50.28 3.67 48.72 0.36 4.77 -0.24 -3.20 1971 16.50 18.86 19.57 7.78 9.69 10.12 -2.34 -30.14 -2.35 -30.23 0.44 5.65 -0.43 -5.56 1972 14.41 10.35 10.82 6.35 1.97 2.31 4.04 63.58 4.06 63.91 0.33 5.17 -0.35 -5.49 1973 13.65 16.51 17.63 6.10 8.64 9.39 -3.28 -53.83 -2.87 -46.97 0.32 5.29 -0.74 -12.15 1974 15.36 25.03 25.02 7.50 16.33 16.80 -9.30 -124.00 *9.68 -129.00 0.85 11.37 -0.48 -6.37 1975 16.35 18.50 18.71 8.27 10.43 11.07 -2.80 -33.83 -2.15 -25.96 -0.01 -0.11 -0.64 -7.76 1976 15.48 15.53 15.92 8.57 7.84 8.54 0.03 0.34 -0.05 -0.53 0.78 9.12 -0.71 -8.25 1977 13.14 14.91 17.40 5.41 6.74 8.91 -3.50 -64.67 -1.77 -32.63 0.43 7.95 -2.16 -39.99 1978 14.57 15.77 18.48 6.61 7.27 9.33 -2.72 -41.24 -1.20 -18.12 0.54 8.10 -2.06 -31.22 1979 15.82 14.83 13.85 7.59 6.13 5.43 2.16 28.47 0.99 13.08 0.47 6.19 0.70 9.21 1980 15.22 13.27 15.10 7.20 3.85 5.16 2.04 28.29 1.95 27.08 1.40 19.44 -1.31 -18.24 1961 15.39 19.84 21.56 6.54 9.72 11.38 -4.85 -74.11 -4.46 -68.18 1.27 19.48 -1.66 -25.41 1982 15.18 15.08 17.29 4.80 4.31 6.13 -1.33 -27.71 0.10 2.15 0.39 8.15 -1.83 -38.02 1963 16.19 13.99 16.58 5.28 1.97 3.83 1.45 27.55 2.20 41.65 1.12 21.13 -1.86 -35.24 1964 18.72 15.52 18.02 6.72 3.52 5.37 1.36 20.19 3.21 47.71 -0.00 -0.03 -1.85 -27.49 1985 0.00 0.34 0.32 11.92 11.57 11.23 0.69 5.80 0.34 2:85 0.01 orlt 0.34 Z84 ................................................................................................................................. AVERAGES 1960-64 15.80 17.15 15.68 4.28 5.44 4.03 0.25 8.01 -1.35 -30.57 0.20 4.13 1.41 34.45 1965-73 16.16 14.67 14.58 6.74 4.81 4.60 2.14 33.29 1.49 22.66 0.44 6.48 0.21 4.15 1974-75 15.85 21.1 21.86 7.89 13.38 13.94 -6.05 -78.92 -5.91 -77.48 0.42 5.63 -0.56 -7.06 1976-84 15.52 15.41 17.13 6.51 5.70 7.12 -0.60 -11.43 0.11 1.36 0.71 11.06 -1.42 -23.85 1960-84 15.81 16.00 16.30 6.26 5.9. 6.14 0.12 3.16 -0.17 -3.67 0.49 7.59 -0.20 -0.77 ......... ............................................. ....... ................................. ........................ Table 15. TOMATO (1980 real prices) ....................................................................................................................................... PRODUCT PRICE INPUT PRICE EXCHANGE RATE PRICE EFFECT EFFECT EFFECT YEAR P PU PW* VA VAT VA* TOTAL % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % ....................................................................................................................................... 1960 3.21 3.21 2.76 2.15 2.16 1.78 0.37 17.22 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.79 0.39 18.01 1961 3.09 3.09 2.76 2.07 2.08 1.86 0.22 10.40 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.61 0.23 11.02 1962 3.09 3.09. 2.84 2.11 2.12 1.91 0.20 9.47 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.45 0.21 9.92 1963 3.03 3.03 3.05 2.05 2.04 2.06 -0.01 -0.67 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.48 -0.02 -1.15 1964 3.00 3.00 2.64 2.03 2.02 1.70 0.33 16.04 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.48 0.32 15.56 1965 2.92 2.92 2.60 1.96 1.95 1.68 0.28 14.21 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.47 0.27 13.74 1966 2.81 2.81 2.57 1.86 1.85 1.64 0.22 11.69 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.46 0.21 11.23 1967 2.71 2.71 2.38 1.83 1.82 1.50 0.33 17.89 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.49 0.32 17.40 1968 2.66 2.66 2.66 1.79 1.76 1.74 0.04 2.51 0.00 0.00 0.03 1.43 0.02 1.08 1969 2.55 2.51 2.73 1.73 1.66 1.79 -0.06 -3.25 0.05 2.68 0.02 1.40 -0.13 -7.33 1970 2.58 2.45 2.51 1.78 1.63 1.66 0.12 6.66 0.14 7.65 0.01 0.60 -0.03 -1.59 1971 2.61 2.35 2.44 1.86 1.58 1.63 0.23 12.47 0.26 14.05 0.02 0.97 -0.05 -2.55 1972 2.43 2.15 2.25 1.74 1.44 1.47 0.26 15.11 0.28 16.06 0.01 0.70 -0.03 -1.65 1973 2.60 2.60 2.78 1.95 1.94 2.04 -0.09 -4.52 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.70 -0.10 -5.22 1974 4.40 2.72 2.72 3.72 2.00 2.06 1.66 44.68 1.68 45.10 0.04 1.15 -0.06 -1.58 1975 3.74 2.65 2.68 3.01 1.94 2.05 0.96 31.91 1.09 36.05 -0.01 -0.44 -0.11 -3.70 1976 3.09 2.77 2.84 2.51 2.11 2.28 0.23 9.34 0.32 12.65 0.08 3.24 -0.16 -6.56 1977 2.62 2.62 3.07 1.99 1.94 2.36 -0.37 -18.58 0.00 0.00 0.05 2.50 -0.42 -21.08 1978 2.54 2.34 2.75 1.91 1.62 1.93 -0.02 -1.10 0.20 10.68 0.09 4.80 -0.32 -16.58 1979 2.78 2.23 2.08 2.12 1.50 1.40 0.73 34.30 0.55 25.71 0.08 3.71 0.10 4.88 1980 2.96 2.08 2.38 2.34 1.32 1.55 0.79 33.93 0.88 37.61 0.14 5.98 -0.23 -9.66 1981 2.82 2.23 2.43 2.13 1.41 1.61 0.52 24.20 0.59 27.69 0.13 6.25 -0.21 -9.74 1982 3.08 2.84 3.27 2.28 1.97 2.37 -0.10 -4.27 0.24 10.60 0.07 2.98 -0.41 -17.85 1983 3.04 2.91 3.46 2.15 1.95 2.37 -0.22 -10.42 0.13 6.26 0.06 3.00 -0.42 -19.67 1984 3.01 2.62 3.05 2.04 1.65 1.96 0.07 3.48 0.39 19.40 -0.01 -0.65 -0.31 -15.27 1985 #.00 ;00- .00 0-98 0.97 0-93 0k-05 4-99 000 0:00 01 t52 0.03 3-.47 AVERAGES 1960-64 3.09 3.09 2.81 2.08 2.08 1.86 0.22 10.49 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.18 0.22 10.67 1965-73 2.65 2.57 2.55 1.83 1.74 1.68 0.15 8.08 0.08 4.49 0.01 0.80 0.05 2.79 1974-75 4.07 2.68 2.70 3.37 1.97 2.06 1.31 38.29 1.38 40.58 0.01 0.36 -0.09 -2.64 1976-84 2.88 2.52 2.82 2.16 1.72 1.98 0.18 7.87 0.37 16.73 0.08 3.53 -0.26 -12.39 1960-84 2.94 2.66 2.71 2.12 1.82 1.86 0.27 10.91 0.27 10.89 0.03 1.55 -0.04 -1.53 Table 16. CORM (1980 reat prices) PRODUCT PRICE INPUT PRICE EXCHANGE RATE PRICE EFFECT EFFECT EFFECT YEAR P PU Pu' VA VAT VA* TOTAL X ESC/KG % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % .................................................................................................................................................... 1960 13.37 9.63 8.37 7.49 3.77 2.65 4.84 64.68 3.74 49.99 -0.03 -0.39 1.13 15.08 1961 11.86 10.72 9.61 6.19 5.04 4.22 1.97 31.78 1.15 18.52 0.01 0.08 0.82 13.18 1962 12.26 10.89 10.03 6.80 5.39 4.69 2.11 31.03 1.38 20.23 0.03 0.43 0.70 10.37 1963 12.07 10.11 10.16 6.60 4.43 4.50 2.11 31.91 1.97 29.77 0.20 3.10 -0.06 -0.96 1964 11.79 10.12 8.96 6.37 4.50 3.50 2.87 45.12 1.67 26.19 0.20 3.19 1.00 15.75 1965 14.20 10.53 9.46 8.87 5.00 4.10 4.77 53.81 3.67 41.39 0.20 2.21 0.91 10.20 1966 12.95 10.35 9.54 7.69 4.90 4.20 3.50 45.46 2.60 33.80 0.19 2.45 0.71 9.21 1967 12.19 9.83 8.71 7.33 4.79 3.75 3.58 48.89 2.36 32.16 0.18 2.51 1.04 14.22 1968 12.12 9.71 9.70 7.26 4.51 4.46 2.80 38.57 2.41 33.27 0.33 4.61 0.05 0.69 1969 11.28 9.01 9.74 6.72 4.13 4.58 2.14 31.83 2.28 33.84 0.32 4.69 -0.45 -6.70 1970 10.60 9.88 10.10 6.18 5.27 5.38 0.80 12.96 0.72 11.73 0.19 3.06 -0.11 -1.83 1971 12.06 9.01 9.34 7.95 4.66 4.83 3.12 39.23 3.05 38.33 0.25 3.11 -0.18 -2.21 1972 11.03 7.41 7.73 7.23 3.42 3.54 3.68 50.97 3.62 50.12 0.19 2.59 -0.13 -1.75 W 1973 9.88 9.88 10.52 6.30 6.10 6.47 -0.17 -2.65 0.00 0.00 0.20 3.12 -0.36 -5.77 un 1974 11.85 15.23 15.22 8.31 11.24 11.57 -3.26 -39.24 -3.39 -40.79 0.46 5.52 -0.33 -3.98 1975 14.21 10.92 11.04 9.80 6.53 6.92 2.88 29.37 3.29 33.54 -0.02 -0.22 -0.39 -3.95 1976 12.15 9.26 9.49 8.88 5.20 5.64 3.24 36.48 2.88 32.47 0.79 8.90 -0.43 -4.89 1977 11.38 8.04 9.33 7.84 3.99 5.07 2.77 35.35 3.33 42.55 0.51 6.50 -1.07 -13.70 1978 10.55 7.68 8.94 7.20 3.45 4.35 2.85 39.62 2.88 39.94 0.87 12.15 *0.90 -12.47 1979 10.32 8.41 7.88 6.66 3.98 3.64 3.02 45.38 1.91 28.69 0.77 11.50 0.35 5.19 1980 9.64 7.97 9.03 6.21 3.23 3.94 2.27 36.52 1.67 26.89 1.31 21.10 -0.71 -11.47 1981 10.77 9.31 10.08 6.87 4.16 4.86 2.01 29.27 1.46 21.22 1.26 18.28 -0.70 -10.23 1982 10.41 7.50 8.54 5.71 2.12 2.92 2.79 48.92 2.91 50.97 0.68 11.94 -0.80 -13.99 1983 13.28 9.42 11.11 8.04 3.50 4.63 3.41 42.43 3.87 48.10 0.68 8.43 -1.13 -14.10 1984 14.42 10.56 12.22 8.70 4.86 5.95 2.75 31.62 3.86 44.30 -0.01 -0.17 -1.09 -12.52 1985 0.00 6.05 0.39 5.74 0.34 0.73 6.47 112.65 6.0 105.46 0.03 0;48 0.38 6-7l AVERAGES 1960*64 12.27 10.29 9.43 6.69 4.63 3.91 2.78 40.90 1.98 28.94 0.08 1.28 0.72 10.68 1965-73 11.81 9.51 9.43 7.28 4.75 4.59 2.69 35.45 2.30 30.52 0.23 3.15 0.16 1.78 1974-75 13.03 13.08 13.13 9.05 8.89 9.24 -0.19 -4.94 -0.05 -3.62 0.22 2.65 -0.36 -3.96 1976-84 11.44 8.68 9.63 7.35 3.83 4.55 2.79 38.40 2.75 37.24 0.76 10.96 -0.72 -9.80 1960-84 11.87 9.65 9.80 7.33 4.73 4.81 2.51 34.37 2.21 29.89 0.39 5.55 -0.09 -1.07 Table 17. WHEAT (1980 real prices) .................................................................................... i................................J- - - - - - PRODUCT PRICE INPUT PRICE EXCHANGE RATE PRICE EFFECT EFFECT EFFECT YEAR P PU PW* VA VA1 VA* TOTAL % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % 1960 17.65 11.95 10.35 7.59 1.91 0.39 7.20 94.88 5.71 75.15 -0.03 -0.34 1.52 20.07 1961 17.02 11.63 10.42 7.32 1.89 0.77 6.55 89.44 5.39 73.58 0.05 0.64 1.11 15.22 1962 17.02 11.86 10.92 7.64 2.39 1.53 6.11 79.94 5.16 67.48 0.10 1.27 0.86 11.19 1963 16.96 11.23 11.28 7.59 1.39 1.45 6.15 80.95 5.73 75.43 0.47 6.25 -0.05 -0.72 1964 16.79 12.01 10.61 7.52 2.27 1.00 6.52 86.74 4.78 63.60 0.47 6.25 1.27 16.90 1965 17.50 10.04 9.01 8.39 0.48 -0.49 8.88 105.85 7.45 88.84 0.46 5.43 0.97 11.57 1966 16.95 10.61 9.77 7.99 1.20 0.43 -1.55 94.58 6.34 79.44 0.44 5.49 0.77 9.65 1967 16.35 10.68 9.45 8.02 1.93 0.79 7.23 90.11 5.67 70.63 0.42 5.29 1.14 14.18 1968 16.06 9.46 9.45 7.75 0.40 0.39 7.36 94.93 6.60 85.17 0.75 9.67 0.01 0.10 1969 15.14 8.13 8.79 7.34 -0.38 0.19 7.15 97.43 7.01 95.58 0.71 9.63 -0.57 -7.78 1970 14.77 9.42 9.64 7.17 1.41 1.58 5.59 77.91 5.35 74.53 0.41 5.76 -0.17 -2.38 1971 15.46 8.10 8.39 8.36 0.48 0.73 7.63 91.32 7.36 88.03 0.52 6.19 -0.24 -2.90 1972 14.13 8.76 9.15 7.55 1.79 2.04 5.51 73.00 5.37 71.17 0.39 5.16 -0.25 -3.34 1973 13.38 15.01 16.02 7.20 8.42 9.02 -1.83 -25.41 -1.62 -22.53 0.39 5.46 -0.60 -8.35 1974 13.01 17.43 17.42 6.87 10.31 10.62 -3.75 -54.58 -4.43 -64.46 0.98 14.26 -0.30 -4.39 1975 13.09 14.28 14.45 5.63 6.84 7.28 -1.65 -29.26 -1.19 -21.19 -0.02 -0.33 -0.44 -7.74 1976 11.21 10.81 11.07 5.40 3.77 4.16 1.23 22.88 0.41 7.57 1.21 22.50 -0.39 -7.20 1977 10.79 9.02 10.50 4.38 1.88 2.98 1.40 31.94 1.77 40.31 0.73 16.75 -1.10 -25.12 1978 11.08 8.96 10.47 4.82 1.59 2.63 2.19 45.40 2.12 43.89 1.12 23.17 -1.04 -21.65 1979 13.92 10.22 9.56 7.16 2.48 2.04 5.13 71.58 3.70 51.62 0.98 13.69 0.45 6.27 1980 12.86 10.06 11.43 6.37 1.49 2.34 4.03 63.20 2.80 43.96 2.08 32.65 -0.85 -13.41 1981 12.38 11.10 12.04 5.08 1.85 2.55 2.53 49.89 1.28 25.21 1.95 38.35 -0.69 -13.68 1982 12.37 9.44 10.80 3.52 -0.26 0.60 2.92 82.91 2.92 83.04 0.86 24.28 -0.86 -24.41 1983 13.32 10.12 11.96 3.83 -0.73 0.37 3.46 90.38 3.21 83.78 1.35 35.20 -1.10 -28.60 1984 15.50 10.76 12.46 5.12 0.38 1.49 3.63 70.87 4.75 92.78 -0.01 -0.14 -1.11 -21.78 1985 15.14 13.68 15.07 4.78 3.34 4.22 0.56 11.81 1.47 30.64 -0.03 -0.54 -0.87 -18.29 AVERAGES 1960-64 17.09 11.74 10.72 7.53 1.97 1.03 6.51 86.39 5.35 71.05 0.21 2.81 0.94 12.53 1965-73 15.53 10.02 9.96 7.75 1.75 1.63 6.12 77.75 5.50 70.10 0.50 6.45 0.12 1.20 1974-75 13.05 15.86 15.93 6.25 8.58 8.95 -2.70 -41.92 -2.81 -42.82 0.48 6.97 -0.37 -6.06 1976-84 12.60 10.05 11.14 5.08 1.38 2.13 2.95 58.78 2.55 52.46 1.14 22.94 -0.74 -16.62 1960-84 14.59 10.84 11.02 6.62 2.21 2.28 4.35 63.08 3.74 54.90 0.67 11.70 -0.07 -3.53 Table 18. BEEF (1980 real prices) ........ .................................................................................................. PRODUCT PRICE INPUT PRICE EXCHANGE RATE PRICE EFFECT EFFECT EFFECT YEAR P PU PU VA VA1 VA* TOTAL % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % ESC/KG I ....................................................................................................................................... 1960 121.11 89.20 79.01 -5.72 -33.82 -53.05 47.33 -827.95 31.91 *558.23 -3.81 66.69 19.23 -336.41 1961 117.30 80.05 73.00 *7.39 -43.94 -57.41 50.02 -677.24 37.25 -504.29 -0.69 9.40 13.47 -182.35 1962 117.24 78.96 73.68 -11.42 -49.14 *63.19 51.77 -453.22 38.28 -335.12 -0.56 4.89 14.05 -122.99 1963 124.67 78.45 78.76 -7.39 -55.90 -65.76 58.37 -790.15 46.22 -625.61 2.30 -31.08 9.86 -133.46 1964 136.12 110.70 99.17 *4.12 -31.80 -51.46 47.34 -1147.90 25.41 *616.21 2.27 -55.00 19.66 -476.68 1965 130.84 108.16 98.18 -9.86 -32.48 -50.48 40.63 -412.17 22.68 -230.09 -0.06 0.59 18.01 -182.67 1966 143.63 104.83 97.47 6.60 *33.16 -49.49 56.09 850.24 38.79 588.03 0.96 14.55 16.34 247.65 1967 148.78 94.07 84.57 18.49 -37.26 -55.96 74.45 402.73 54.71 295.94 1.04 5.63 18.70 101.17 1968 146.17 81.48 81.45 14.65 -54.15 -64.61 79.26 541.11 64.68 441.62 4.12 28.11 10.46 71.39 1969 139.90 80.93 86.60 15.83 -46.99 -53.60 69.43 438.51 58.97 372.45 3.85 24.32 6.61 41.74 1970 142.90 91.41 99.42 22.21 -25.43 -33.35 55.56 250.14 45.49 204.81 2.15 9.69 7.92 35.64 1971 159.77 111.57 115.26 43.55 -2.66 -9.60 53.15 122.04 48.21 110.68 -1.99 -4.58 6.94 15.94 1972 157.50 109.25 113.71 50.10 6.42 -1.08 51.18 102.16 48.25 96.32 -4.57 -9.13 7.50 14.96 1973 202.09 118.16 125.25 98.51 10.82 7.04 91.47 92.85 83.93 85.20 3.77 3.83 3.78 3.83 1974 188.70 122.18 122.10 90.78 6.46 1.85 88.93 97.96 66.52 73.27 17.80 19.61 4.61 5.08 1975 187.24 83.40 84.19 70.30 -36.32 -41.01 111.31 158.34 103.84 147.71 2.79 3.97 4.68 6.66 1976 193.24 75.64 77.21 97.25 -32.77 -35.88 133.13 136.90 117.59 120.92 12.43 12.78 3.11 3.19 1977 202.02 76.30 86.95 108.09 -24.90 -22.55 130.63 120.86 125.72 116.31 7.27 6.72 -2.35 -2.18 1978 190.99 78.49 89.83 93.74 -25.28 -25.06 118.80 126.74 112.49 120.01 6.52 6.96 -0.21 -0.23 1979 225.85 105.37 99.27 120.51 -7.38 -19.39 139.89 116.09 120.47 99.97 7.42 6.15 12.00 9.96 1980 217.50 109.72 123.37 121.43 -6.84 -6.83 128.26 105.63 107.78 88.76 20.49 16.88 -0.01 -0.01 1981 182.06 107.97 116.25 73.33 -20.74 -20.71 94.04 128.24 74.08 101.03 19.99 27.26 -0.04 -0.05 1982 165.31 111.94 126.70 44.56 -13.77 -9.03 53.59 120.26 53.36 119.75 4.97 11.14 -4.74 -10.64 1983 201.53 110.53 128.90 51.96 -51.85 -51.86 103.83 199.81 91.00 175.13 12.81 24.66 0.01 0.02 1984 193.40 134.15 153.96 35.79 -18.83 -18.31 54.10 151.15 59.25 165.56 -4.63 -12.95 -0.52 -1.45 1985 -0.00 -.-- 0.00 -.-- 0.00 -66.33--- -4.99---5.-14-61-,19----02.25-----0.00--.0.00- 61.3-...92.48 0.15 -0.22. AVERAGES 1960-64 123.29 87.48 80.72 -7.21 -42.92 -58.17 50.97 -779.29 35.81 -527.89 -0.10 -1.02 15.25 -250.38 1965-73 152.40 100.65 100.21 28.90 -23.88 -34.57 63.47 265.29 51.75 218.33 1.03 8.11 10.69 38.85 1974-75 187.97 102.79 103.15 80.54 -14.93 -19.58 100.12 128.15 85.18 110.49 10.30 11.79 4.65 5.87 1976-84 196.87 101.12 111.38 82.96 -22.49 -23.29 106.25 133.96 95.75 123.05 9.70 11.07 0.81 -0.15 1960-84 165.43 98.36 100.57 45.27 -26.47 -34.03 79.30 -1.87 67.08 26.16 4.66 7.64 7.56 -35.68 .---..-.-.--....-...... .-..-.. ....-........... .......-... ........-.. . ........... ........... ........... ............ ........... ........... Table 19. SHEEP (1980 reat prices) ........I......................................................................................................................... PRODUCT PRICE INPUT PRICE EXCHANGE RATE PRICE EFFECT EFFECT EFFECT YEAR P PU PUk VA VAI VA* TOTAL % ESC/KG % ESC/KG Z ESC/KG % ................................................................................................................................. 1960 239.08 223.45 231.08 15.68 3.41 -6.12 21.80 139.04 15.63 99.70 -3.36 -21.46 9.53 60.80 1961 234.26 205.15 212.32 16.90 -12.71 -14.27 31.17 184.45 29.11 172.28 0.49 2.92 1.56 9.25 1962 226.58 204.40 209.25 7.70 -15.92 -28.41 36.11 468.86 22.18 287.96 1.44 18.70 12.49 162.20 1963 278.94 241.14 240.75 57.49 9.54 -11.91 69.40 120.71 37.79 65.74 10.15 17.66 21.45 37.31 1964 350.46 304.03 315.44 123.16 66.67 63.61 59.55 48.35 46.43 37.70 10.06 8.17 3.06 2.49 1965 309.25 275.94 284.31 82.13 41.02 34.22 47.92 58.34 33.32 40.56 7.79 9.49 6.81 8.29 1966 340.19 276.69 285.88 116.51 44.67 35.29 81.22 69.71 63.49 54.50 8.34 7.16 9.38 8.05 1967 333.51 262.75 276.97 121.46 42.57 36.12 85.34 70.26 70.75 58.25 8.14 6.70 6.45 5.31 1968 312.24 239.38 239.43 101.28 12.14 -11.35 112.64 111.21 72.86 71.94 16.28 16.07 23.49 23.20 1969 366.68 270.98 258.85 166.63 55.64 12.61 154.02 92.43 95.70 57.43 15.30 9.18 43.03 25.82 1970 352.39 269.25 266.16 157.85 66.01 40.13 117.73 74.58 83.14 52.67 8.71 5.52 25.88 16.40 1971 447.10 333.79 327.45 259.92 139.95 108.18 151.74 58.38 113.31 43.59 6.66 2.56 31.76 12.22 1972 466.69 356.77 349.51 291.53 179.35 140.24 151.29 51.89 109.92 37.71 2.26 0.77 39.11 13.41 1973 543.46 411.65 398.47 369.98 228.79 187.00 182.99 49.46 131.81 35.63 9.38 2.53 41.80 11.30 1974 546.03 431.74 431.86 382.64 236.21 233.42 149.22 39.00 114.30 29.87 32.13 8.40 2.79 0.73 1975 576.43 436.20 433.83 374.28 231.52 230.12 144.16 38.52 140.22 37.46 2.54 0.68 1.40 0.37 1976 551.38 406.20 403.54 386.36 215.36 215.60 170.76 44.20 145.18 37.58 25.83 6.68 -0.24 -0.06 1977 519.52 395.69 380.88 347.44 208.89 177.55 169.88 48.90 123.83 35.64 14.72 4.24 31.33 9.02 1978 451.44 351.66 339.56 280.56 164.87 124.97 155.58 55.45 99.78 35.56 15.90 5.67 39.90 14.22 1979 510.32 395.92 401.19 325.15 195.22 193.28 131.87 40.56 114.39 35.18 15.53 4.78 1.94 0.60 1980 469.21 396.98 391.43 293.20 176.44 138.80 154.40 52.66 72.23 24.64 44.53 15.19 37.64 12.84 1981 338.03 322.96 323.40 140.55 83.67 69.66 70.88 50.43 15.07 10.73 41.80 29.74 14.01 9.97 1982 350.44 322.53 321.53 122.56 82.79 62.43 60.13 49.06 27.91 22.77 11.86 9.68 20.35 16.61 1983 343.30 295.56 290.31 87.34 7.46 -35.31 122.65 140.43 47.74 54.66 32.15 36.80 42.77 48.96 1984 336.02 318.77 316.11 61.83 48.75 6.77 55.06 89.05 17.26 27.91 -4.18 -6.77 41.99 67.91 1985 --00- - 0020.0 -W13 6----6- 9---2-9 --084--323 0--- 0-00-0 06---0.24---.78 __.9 .................................................................................................................................................... AVERAGES 1960-64 265.86 235.64 241.77 44.18 10.20 0.58 43.60 192.28 30.23 132.68 3.76 5.20 9.62 54.41 1965-73 385.72 299.69 298.56 185.26 90.02 64.72 120.54 70.70 86.03 50.25 9.21 6.67 25.30 13.78 1974-75 561.23 433.97 432.85 378.46 233.87 231.77 146.69 38.76 127.26 33.67 17.34 4.54 2.09 0.55 1976-84 429.96 356.25 352.00 227.22 131.49 105.97 121.25 63.42 73.71 31.63 22.02 11.78 25.52 20.01 1960-84 391.72 317.98 317.18 187.61 100.49 80.11 107.50 89.84 73.73 58.71 13.38 8.04 20.39 23.09 ......................................................................................... w....................................... POTATOES,north costs and value added at market prices .................................................................................................................................. PRICE ........FERTILISER......... ........PESTICIDES........ ...........FUEL.......... .........OTHER INPUTS...... YEAR P index coeff cost index coeff cost index coeff cost index coeff cost VA . ................................................................................................................. 1960 1.15 0.47 0.32 0.15 0.32 0.22 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.04 0.26 1.33 0.34 0.55 1961 1.10 0.47 0.32 0.15 0.32 0.22 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.04 0.26 1.33 0.34 0.50 1962 1.40 0.45 0.32 0.14 0.31 0.22 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.04 0.25 1.33 0.33 0.83 1963 1.15 0.46 0.32 0.15 0.31 0.22 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.04 0.25 1.33 0.34 0.56 1964 1.10 0.46 0.32 0.15 0.31 0.22 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.04 0.25 1.33 0.34 0.51 1965 1.70 0.47 0.32 0.15 0.31 0.22 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.04 0.25 1.33 0.34 1.11 1966 2.01 0.49 0.32 0.16 0.32 0.22 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.04 0.26 1.33 0.35 1.40 1967 1.13 0.46 0.32 0.15 0.31 0.22 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.04 0.25 1.33 0.34 0.55 1968 1.24 0.47 0.32 0.15 0.31 0.22 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.04 0.25 1.33 0.34 0.65 1969 1.71 0.47 0.32 0.15 0.31 0.22 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.04 0.25 1.33 0.34 1.12 1970 1.25 0.46 0.32 0.15 0.33 0.22 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.04 0.25 1.33 0.34 0.66 1971 1.61 0.44 0.32 0.14 0.33 0.22 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.04 0.25 1.33 0.33 1.04 1972 2.17 0.44 0.32 0.14 0.32 0.22 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.04 0.25 1.33 0.33 1.59 1973 2.42 0.44 0.32 0.14 0.32 0.22 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.04 0.24 1.33 0.32 1.85 1974 2.98 0.53 0.32 0.17 0.41 0.22 0.09 0.15 0.24 0.04 0.36 1.33 0.48 2.21 1975 4.38 0.81 0.32 0.26 0.36 0.22 0.08 0.31 0.24 0.07 0.36 1.33 0.48 3.49 1976 6.34 0.58 0.32 0.19 0.39 0.22 0.08 0.31 0.24 0.07 0.39 1.33 0.52 5.48 1977 6.28 0.74 0.32 0.24 0.56 0.22 0.12 0.46 0.24 0.11 0.55 1.33 0.73 5.08 1978 4.43 0.74 0.32 0.24 0.77 0.22 0.17 0.58 0.24 0.14 0.70 1.33 0.92 2.96 1979 9.28 1.00 0.32 0.32 0.86 0.22 0.19 0.77 0.24 0.18 0.81 1.33 1.08 7.50 1980 8.10 1.00 0.32 0.32 1.00 0.22 0.22 1.00 0.24 0.24 1.00 1.33 1.33 5.99 1981 11.34 1.43 0.32 0.46 1.21 0.22 0.27 1.31 0.24 0.31 1.35 1.33 1.79 8.51 1982 14.46 2.01 0.32 0.64 1.56 0.22 0.34 2.13 0.24 0.51 1.83 1.33 2.44 10.52 1983 17.01 3.43 0.32 1.10 1.79 0.22 0.39 2.36 0.24 0.57 2.68 1.33 3.56 11.39 1984 26.76 4.65 0.32 1.49 2.52 0.22 0.55 3.27 0.24 0.78 3.72 1.33 4.94 18.99 Table 1.1 cont. POTATOES,north cif ukt ........FERTILISER... ...........FUEL.......... FERT PEST FUEL OTHER YEAR price costs PU index coeff cost index coeff cost VAI E*/E (1+tm) PU* cost cost cost cost 1960 1.15 0.00 1.15 0.27 0.56 0.15 0.11 0.33 0.04 0.55 0.88 0.86 1.02 0.16 0.07 0.03 0.38 0.37 1961 1.10 0.00 1.10 0.27 0.56 0.15 0.11 0.33 0.04 0.50 0.82 0.86 0.90 0.15 0.07 0.03 0.37 0.27 1962 1.40 0.00 1.40 0.25 0.56 0.14 0.11 0.33 0.04 0.52 0.92 0.91 1.29 0.15 0.07 0.04 0.35 0.69 1963 1.15 0.00 1.15 0.26 0.56 0.15 0.13 0.33 0.04 0.56 0.99 1.00 1.14 0.15 0.07 0.04 0.33 0.55 1964 1.10 0.00 1.10 0.26 0.56 0.15 0.13 0.33 0.04 0.51 0.91 0.88 1.00 0.15 0.07 0.04 0.37 0.37 1965 1.70 0.00 1.70 0.27 0.56 0.15 0.13 0.33 0.04 1.10 0.91 0.89 1.55 0.16 0.07 0.04 0.37 0.92 1966 2.01 0.00 2.01 0.27 0.56 0.15 0.13 0.33 0.04 1.39 0.95 0.92 1.91 0.16 0.07 0.04 0.37 1.27 1967 1.13 0.00 1.13 0.26 0.56 0.15 0.13 0.33 0.04 0.54 0.97 0.90 1.10 0.15 0.07 0.04 0.36 0.47 1968 1.24 0.00 1.24 0.27 0.56 0.15 0.15 0.33 0.05 0.63 1.02 1.01 1.27 0.15 0.07 0.05 0.34 0.66 1969 1.71 0.00 1.71 0.26 0.56 0.15 0.15 0.33 0.05 1.11 1.11 1.13 1.91 0.14 0.07 0.05 0.31 1.32 C 1970 1.25 0.00 1.25 0.26 0.56 0.15 0.13 0.33 0.04 0.65 1.05 1.04 1.31 0.15 0.07 0.04 0.33 0.71 1971 1.61 0.00 1.61 0.25 0.56 0.14 0.14 0.33 0.05 1.02 1.06 1.06 1.71 0.14 0.07 0.05 0.32 1.14 1972 2.17 0.00 2.17 0.25 0.56 0.14 0.14 0.33 0.05 1.58 1.11 1.09 2.40 0.14 0.07 0.05 0.32 1.83 1973 2.42 0.00 2.42 0.25 0.56 0.14 0.14 0.33 0.05 1.84 1.09 1.10 2.63 0.14 0.07 0.05 0.30 2.07 1974 2.98 0.00 2.98 0.30 0.56 0.17 0.19 0.33 0.06 2.18 0.93 0.97 2.76 0.17 0.09 0.06 0.48 1.96 1975 4.38 0.00 4.38 0.46 0.56 0.26 0.23 0.33 0.08 3.49 0.90 0.97 3.95 0.25 0.08 0.07 0.48 3.08 1976 6.34 0.00 6.34 0.46 0.56 0.26 0.29 0.33 0.09 5.39 0.88 0.97 5.60 0.25 0.08 0.09 0.52 4.67 1977 6.28 0.00 6.28 0.54 0.56 0.30 0.37 0.33 0.12 5.00 0.97 1.10 6.08 0.28 0.11 0.12 0.68 4.89 1978 4.43 0.00 4.43 0.73 0.56 0.41 0.43 0.33 0.14 2.79 1.04 1.14 4.61 0.38 0.16 0.14 0.84 3.08 1979 9.28 0.00 9.28 0.88 0.56 0.50 0.57 0.33 0.19 7.32 0.96 0.94 8.86 0.51 0.19 0.18 1.13 6.85 1980 8.10 0.00 8.10 1.00 0.56 0.56 1.00 0.33 0.33 5.66 1.03 1.11 8.34 0.53 0.21 0.33 1.23 6.03 1981 11.34 0.00 11.34 1.34 0.56 0.75 1.23 0.33 0.41 8.13 0.94 1.03 10.63 0.72 0.26 0.38 1.72 7.55 1982 14.46 0.00 14.46 1.67 0.56 0.93 1.56 0.33 0.51 10.23 0.96 1.08 13.83 0.88 0.32 0.49 2.27 9.87 1983 17.01 0.00 17.01 2.08 0.56 1.16 2.29 0.33 0.75 11.14 1.04 1.15 17.68 1.09 0.37 0.76 3.22 12.23 1984 26.76 0.00 26.76 2.63 0.56 1.47 2.43 0.33 0.80 18.99 1.07 1.15 28.60 1.40 0.53 0.83 4.50 21.34 Table 1.1 cont. MILK, national and north costs and value added at market prices ................................................................................................................................ PRICE ........CONCENTRATE........ ........FORRAGE.......... ...........FUEL . .........OTHER INPUTS...... YEAR P index coeff cost Index coeff cost index coeff cost index coeff cost VA1 ................................................................................................................................ 1960 2.00 0.16 3.07 0.51 0.24 3.19 0.78 0.15 0.31 0.05 0.17 0.55 0.10 0.57 1961 1.91 0.17 3.07 0.53 0.24 3.19 0.78 0.15 0.31 0.05 0.17 0.55 0.10 0.46 1962 1.97 0.19 3.07 0.59 0.24 3.19 0.76 0.15 0.31 0.05 0.18 0.55 0.10 0.48 1963 2.07 0.21 3.07 0.64 0.24 3.19 0.77 0.15 0.31 0.05 0.19 0.55 0.10 0.51 1964 2.33 0.22 3.07 0.68 0.24 3.19 0.77 0.15 0.31 0.05 0.19 0.55 0.11 0.73 1965 2.26 0.24 3.07 0.73 0.24 3.19 0.78 0.15 0.31 0.05 0.20 0.55 0.11 0.60 1966 2.50 0.24 3.07 0.74 0.25 3.19 0.79 0.15 0.31 0.05 0.22 0.55 0.12 0.80 1967 3.10 0.24 3.07 0.74 0.24 3.19 0.77 0.15 0.31 0.05 0.22 0.55 0.12 1.42 1968 3.10 0.24 3.07 0.75 0.24 3.19 0.78 0.15 0.31 0.05 0.23 0.55 0.13 1.40 1969 3.10 0.24 3.07 0.75 0.24 3.19 0.78 0.15 0.31 0.05 0.24 0.55 0.13 1.40 1970 3.10 0.24 3.07 0.75 0.24 3.19 0.77 0.15 0.31 0.05 0.24 0.55 0.13 1.40 4 1971 3.50 0.25 3.07 0.76 0.23 3.19 0.75 0.15 0.31 0.05 0.26 0.55 0.14 1.81 1972 3.60 0.25 3.07 0.77 0.24 3.19 0.76 0.15 0.31 0.05 0.27 0.55 0.15 1.88 I 1973 3.60 0.28 3.07 0.84 0.24 3.19 0.76 0.15 0.31 0.05 0.29 0.55 0.16 1.79 1974 4.90 0.32 3.07 0.99 0.28 3.19 0.91 0.15 0.31 0.05 0.34 0.55 0.19 2.77 1975 6.74 0.41 3.07 1.27 0.43 3.19 1.38 0.31 0.31 0.10 0.41 0.55 0.23 3.77 1976 7.84 0.41 3.07 1.27 0.39 3.19 1.24 0.31 0.31 0.10 0.44 0.55 0.24 4.99 1977 8.95 0.52 3.07 1.60 0.55 3.19 1.74 0.46 0.31 0.14 0.56 0.55 0.31 5.15 1978 12.51 0.68 3.07 2.08 0.64 3.19 2.05 0.58 0.31 0.18 0.69 0.55 0.38 7.83 1979 14.01 0.81 3.07 2.50 0.83 3.19 2.65 0.77 0.31 0.24 0.86 0.55 0.47 8.15 1980 14.51 1.00 3.07 3.07 1.00 3.19 3.19 1.00 0.31 0.31 1.00 0.55 0.55 7.39 1981 16.47 1.38 3.07 4.23 1.34 3.19 4.29 1.31 0.31 0.41 1.20 0.55 0.66 6.89 1982 20.35 1.57 3.07 4.81 2.03 3.19 6.49 2.13 0.31 0.66 1.47 0.55 0.81 7.58 1983 28.10 3.05 3.07 9.37 2.67 3.19 8.52 2.36 0.31 0.73 1.84 0.55 1.01 8.46 1984 30.02 3.96 3.07 12.14 3.68 3.19 11.75 3.27 0.31 1.01 2.38 0.55 1.31 3.80 Table 1.1 cont. MILK, national and north MILK, nationaL and north ........................................................................................................................................... cif mkt ... CONCENTRAT ....FORRAGE. .....FUEL..... CONC FORR FORR FUEL OTHP YEAR price costs PU index cost index cost index cost VA1 E*/E (+tm) PW* cost ratio cost cost opst VA* .................................................................................................................................... I------ 1960 2.00 0.00 2.00 0.93 0.47 0.18 0.78 0.11 0.05 0.61 0.90 0.86 2.00 0.47 0.19 0.92 0.04 0.11 0.46 1961 1.91 0.00 1.91 0.98 0.52 0.18 0.79 0.11 0.05 0.46 0.95 0.86 1.91 0.53 0.18 0.90 0.05 0.11 0.33 1962 1.97 0.00 1.97 0.97 0.57 0.18 0.77 0.11 0.05 0.48 0.94 0.91 1.97 0.57 0.18 0.90 0.05 0.11 0.35 1963 2.07 0.00 2.07 0.96 0.61 0.19 0.82 0.13 0.06 0.48 1.01 1.00 2.07 0.61 0.19 0.95 0.06 0.10 0.35 1964 2.33 0.00 2.33 0.96 0.66 0.19 0.82 0.13 0.06 0.69 0.91 0.88 2.33 0.65 0.20 0.97 0.05 0.11 0.54 1965 2.26 0.00 2.26 0.94 0.68 0.19 0.83 0.13 0.06 0.59 0.92 0.89 2.26 0.68 0.20 0.97 0.05 0.12 0.44 1966 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.95 0.70 0.19 0.85 0.13 0.06 0.78 0.93 0.92 2.50 0.70 0.20 0.99 0.05 0.13 0.63 1967 2.60 0.00 2.60 0.95 0.70 0.19 0.82 0.13 0.06 0.90 0.89 0.90 2.60 0.69 0.20 0.98 0.05 0.13 0.75 1968 2.60 0.00 2.60 0.95 0.71 0.20 0.87 0.15 0.06 0.83 0.99 1.01 2.60 0.70 0.21 1.02 0.06 0.13 0.69 1969 2.60 0.00 2.60 0.95 0.71 0.20 0.87 0.15 0.06 0.83 1.03 1.13 2.60 0.70 0.21 1.01 0.06 0.12 0.71 1970 2.60 0.00 2.60 0.97 0.73 0.19 0.82 0.13 0.06 0.86 1.00 1.04 2.60 0.72 0.19 0.96 0.06 0.13 0.74 1971 3.20 0.00 3.20 0.89 0.67 0.19 0.82 0.14 0.06 1.51 1.01 1.06 3.20 0.66 0.19 0.95 0.06 0.14 1.39 1972 3.20 0.00 3.20 0.85 0.65 0.19 0.82 0.14 0.06 1.52 1.00 1.09 3.20 0.63 0.20 0.97 0.06 0.14 1.41 1973 3.20 0.00 3.20 1.00 0.84 0.19 0.82 0.14 0.06 1.32 1.03 1.10 3.20 0.83 0.19 0.95 0.06 0.15 1.21 1974 4.40 0.00 4.40 1.16 1.14 0.25 1.10 0.19 0.08 1.89 1.03 0.97 4.40 1.18 0.25 1.24 0.08 0.19 1.71 1975 6.44 0.00 6.44 1.05 1.34 0.32 1.37 0.23 0.10 3.41 1.05 0.97 6.44 1.40 0.31 1.53 0.10 0.23 3.18 1976 7.54 0.00 7.54 1.05 1.33 0.35 1.53 0.29 0.12 4.31 1.07 0.97 7.54 1.41 0.34 1.68 0.13 0.25 4.07 1977 8.65 0.00 8.65 1.03 1.66 0.45 1.96 0.37 0.16 4.57 1.17 1.10 8.65 1.77 0.43 2.13 0.18 0.30 4.27 1978 12.21 0.00 12.21 0.97 2.00 0.56 2.43 0.43 0.18 7.22 1.13 1.14 12.21 2.07 0.55 2.72 0.20 0.35 6.87 1979 13.71 0.00 13.71 1.01 2.51 0.70 3.05 0.57 0.24 7.44 0.96 0.94 13.71 2.51 0.72 3.54 0.23 0.49 6.94 1980 13.71 0.00 13.71 1.06 3.26 1.00 4.34 1.00 0.42 5.14 1.11 1.11 13.71 3.36 1.00 4.92 0.45 0.52 4.46 1981 15.27 0.00 15.27 1.07 4.54 1.28 5.55 1.23 0.52 4.00 1.10 1.03 15.27 4.79 1.24 6.11 0.56 0.66 3.16 1982 19.15 0.00 19.15 0.98 4.69 1.64 7.10 1.56 0.66 5.89 1.15 1.08 19.15 5.00 1.58 7.76 0.73 0.79 4.87 1983 24.50 0.00 24.50 1.00 9.35 2.29 9.94 2.29 0.96 3.23 1.14 1.15 24.50 9.72 2.27 11.18 1.06 0.94 1.60 1984 29.02 0.00 29.02 0.94 11.38 2.70 11.74 2.43 1.02 3.58 1.11 1.15 29.02 11.58 2.72 13.36 1.09 1.20 1.78 Table 1.1 cont. WINE, national (traded) costs and value added at market prices ............................................................................................................................. PRICE ........FERTILISER......... ........PESTICIDES........ ...........FUEL.......... .........OTHER INPUTS...... YEAR P index coeff cost index coeff cost index coeff- cost index coeff cost VA " . ....................................................................................................................................... 1960 2.84 0.47 0.32 0.15 0.32 0.64 0.20 0.15 0.21 0.03 0.26 0.96 0.25 2.21 1961 3.34 0.47 0.32 0.15 0.32 0.64 0.20 0.15 0.21 0.03 0.26 0.96 0.25 2.71 1962 2.54 0.45 0.32 0.14 0.31 0.64 0.20 0.15 0.21 0.03 0.25 0.96 0.24 1.93 1963 2.22 0.46 0.32 0.15 0.31 0.64 0.20 0.15 0.21 0.03 0.25 0.96 0.24 1.60 1964 2.22 0.46 0.32 0.15 0.31 0.64 0.20 0.15 0.21 0.03 0.25 0.96 0.24 1.60 1965 2.18 0.47 0.32 0.15 0.31 0.64 0.20 0.15 0.21 0.03 0.25 0.96 0.24 1.55 1966 2.98 0.49 0.32 0.16 0.32 0.64 0.21 0.15 0.21 0.03 0.26 0.96 0.25 2.33 1967 4.01 0.46 0.32 0.15 0.31 0.64 0.20 0.15 0.21 0.03 0.25 0.96 0.24 3.39 1968 3.77 0.47 0.32 0.15 0.31 0.64 0.20 0.15 0.21 0.03 0.25 0.96 0.24 3.14 1969 4.96 0.47 0.32 0.15 0.31 0.64 0.20 0.15 0.21 0.03 0.25 0.96 0.24 4.33 1970 4.38 0.46 0.32 0.15 0.33 0.64 0.21 0.15 0.21 0.03 0.25 0.96 0.24 3.75 1971 5.22 0.44 0.32 0.14 0.33 0.64 0.21 0.15 0.21 0.03 0.25 0.96 0.24 4.60 1972 6.20 0.44 0.32 0.14 0.32 0.64 0.21 0.15 0.21 0.03 0.25 0.96 0.24 5.58 1973 7.23 0.44 0.32 0.14 0.32 0.64 0.21 0.15 0.21 0.03 0.24 0.96 0.23 6.62 1974 5.51 0.53 0.32 0.17 0.41 0.64 0.27 0.15 0.21 0.03 0.36 0.96 0.34 4.70 1975 6.39 0.81 0.32 0.26 0.36 0.64 0.23 0.31 0.21 0.06 0.36 0.96 0.34 5.49 1976 8.32 0.58 0.32 0.19 0.39 0.64 0.25 0.31 0.21 0.06 0.39 0.96 0.37 7.45 1977 15.12 0.74 0.32 0.24 0.56 0.64 0.36 0.46 0.21 0.10 0.55 0.96 0.53 13.90 1978 30.63 0.74 0.32 0.24 0.77 0.64 0.49 0.58 0.21 0.12 0.70 0.96 0.67 29.11 1979 15.76 1.00 0.32 0.32 0.86 0.64 0.55 0.77 0.21 0.16 0.81 0.96 0.78 13.95 1980 18.25 1.00 0.32 0.32 1.00 0.64 0.64 1.00 0.21 0.21 1.00 0.96 0.96 16.12 1981 30.07 1.43 0.32 0.46 1.21 0.64 0.78 1.31 0.21 0.27 1.35 0.96 1.29 27.27 1982 26.70 2.01 0.32 0.64 1.56 0.64 1.00 2.13 0.21 0.45 1.83 0.96 1.76 22.85 1983 30.49 3.43 0.32 1.10 1.79 0.64 1.14 2.36 0.21 0.49 2.68 0.96 2.57 25.18 1984 34.04 4.65 0.32 1.49 2.52 0.64 1.61 3.27 0.21 0.69 3.72 0.96 3.57 26.69 Table 1.1 cont. UINE, national (traded) WINE, na ................................................................................................................................... cif skt ........FERTILISER... ...........FUEL.......... FERT PEST FUEL OTHER YEAR price costs PW Index coeff cost Index coeff cost VA1 E*/E (1+tm) PW* cost cost cost cost 1960 2.84 0.00 2.84 0.27 0.56 0.15 0.11 0.28 0.03 2.21 0.90 0.86 2.55 0.16 0.21 0.03 0.27 1.88 1961 3.34 0.00 3.34 0.27 0.56 0.15 0.11 0.28 0.03 2.71 0.95 0.86 3.18 0.16 0.22 0.03 0.28 2.49 1962 2.54 0.00 2.54 0.25 0.56 0.14 0.11 0.28 0.03 1.93 0.94 0.91 2.40 0.15 0.20 0.03 0.25 1.76 1963 2.22 0.00 2.22 0.26 0.56 0.15 0.13 0.28 0.04 1.60 1.01 1.00 2.24 0.15 0.20 0.04 0.24 1.61 1964 2.22 0.00 2.22 0.26 0.56 0.15 0.13 0.28 0.04 1.60 0.91 0.88 2.02 0.15 0.21 0.03 0.26 1.36 1965 2.18 0.00 2.18 0.27 0.56 0.15 0.13 0.28 0.04 1.55 0.92 0.89 2.01 0.16 0.21 0.04 0.26 1.34 1966 2.98 0.00 2.98 0.27 0.56 0.15 0.13 0.28 0.04 2.33 0.93 0.92 2.78 0.16 0.21 0.04 0.27 2.11 1967 4.01 0.00 4.01 0.26 0.56 0.15 0.13 0.28 0.04 3.39 0.89 0.90 3.56 0.15 0.20 0.03 C.26 2.92 1968 3.77 0.00 3.77 0.27 0.56 0.15 0.15 0.28 0.04 3.13 0.99 1.01 3.73 0.15 0.20 0.04 0.24 3.10 1969 4.96 0.00 4.96 0.26 0.56 0.15 0.15 0.28 0.04 4.32 1.03 1.13 5.12 0.14 0.19 0.04 0.22 4.53 1 1970 4.38 0.00 4.38 0.26 0.56 0.15 0.13 0.28 0.04 3.74 1.00 1.04 4.40 0.14 0.21 0.04 0.24 3.78 1971 5.22 0.00 5.22 0.25 0.56 0.14 0.14 0.28 0.04 4.59 1.01 1.06 5.28 0.14 0.20 0.04 0.23 4.67 1972 6.20 0.00 6.20 0.25 0.56 0.14 0.14 0.28 0.04 5.57 1.00 1.09 6.18 0.13 0.20 0.04 0.22 5.59 1973 7.23 0.00 7.23 0.25 0.56 0.14 0.14 0.28 0.04 6.61 1.03 1.10 7.44 0.14 0.20 0.04 0.22 6.85 1974 5.51 0.00 5.51 0.30 0.56 0.17 0.19 0.28 0.05 4.68 1.03 0.97 5.67 0.18 0.27 0.06 0.35 4.81 1975 6.39 0.00 6.39 0.46 0.56 0.26 0.23 0.28 0.06 5.50 1.05 0.97 6.73 0.27 0.24 0.07 0.36 5.80 1976 8.32 0.00 8.32 0.46 0.56 0.26 0.29 0.28 0.08 7.36 1.07 0.97 8.91 0.27 0.26 0.09 0.39 7.91 1977 15.12 0.00 15.12 0.54 0.56 0.30 0.37 0.28 0.10 13.83 1.17 1.10 17.62 0.31 0.36 0.12 0.51 16.32 1978 30.63 0.00 30.63 0.73 0.56 0.41 0.43 0.28 0.12 28.94 1.13 1.14 34.65 0.40 0.49 0.13 0.62 33.01 1979 15.76 0.00 15.76 0.88 0.56 0.50 0.57 0.28 0.16 13.77 0.96 0.94 15.13 0.51 0.56 0.16 0.81 13.08 1980 18.25 0.00 18.25 1.00 0.56 0.56 1.00 0.28 0.28 15.81 1.11 1.11 20.22 0.55 0.63 0.30 0.90 17.83 1981 30.07 0.00 30.07 1.34 0.56 0.75 1.23 0.28 0.34 26.91 1.10 1.03 33.23 0.77 0.80 0.37 1.29 30.00 1982 26.70 0.00 26.70 1.67 0.56 0.93 1.56 0.28 0.44 22.57 1.15 1.08 30.75 0.95 1.02 0.49 1.71 26.59 1983 30.49 0.00 30.49 2.08 0.56 1.16 2.29 0.28 0.64 24.97 1.14 1.15 34.88 1.14 1.12 0.71 2.38 29.53 1984 34.04 0.00 34.04 2.63 0.56 1.47 2.43 0.28 0.68 26.71 1.11 1.15 37.74 1.43 1.56 0.73 3.27 30.75 Table 1.1 cont. RICE, national and center costs and value added at market prices ................................................................................................................................ PRICE ........FERTILISER......... ........PESTICIDES........ ...........FUEL.......... .........OTHER INPUTS...... YEAR P index coeff cost index coeff cost index coeff cost index coeff cost V ................................................................................................................................ 1960 2.61 0.47 0.68 0.32 0.32 1.89 0.60 0.15 2.54 0.37 0.26 2.91 0.75 0.57 1961 2.72 0.47 0.68 0.32 0.32 1.89 0.60 0.15 2.54 0.37 0.26 2.91 0.75 0.68 1962 2.74 0.45 0.68 0.31 0.31 1.89 0.58 0.15 2.54 0.37 0.25 2.91 0.72 0.77 1963 2.80 0.46 0.68 0.31 0.31 1.89 0.59 0.15 2.54 0.37 0.25 2.91 0.73 0.79 1964 2.96 0.46 0.68 0.31 0.31 1.89 0.59 0.15 2.54 0.37 0.25 2.91 0.73 0.95 1965 3.01 0.47 0.68 0.32 0.31 1.89 0.59 0.15 2.54 0.37 0.25 2.91 0.74 0.98 1966 3.22 0.49 0.68 0.33 0.32 1.89 0.61 0.15 2.54 0.37 0.26 2.91 0.76 1.14 1967 3.34 0.46 0.68 0.31 0.31 1.89 0.59 0.15 2.54 0.37 0.25 2.91 0.73 1.34 1968 3.55 0.47 0.68 0.32 0.31 1.89 0.59 0.15 2.54 0.37 0.25 2.91 0.74 1.52 1969 3.63 0.47 0.68 0.32 0.31 1.89 0.59 0.15 2.54 0.37 0.25 2.91 0.74 1.61 1970 3.71 0.46 0.68 0.31 0.33 1.89 0.62 0.15 2.54 0.37 0.25 2.91 0.74 1.66 1971 3.79 0.44 0.68 0.30 0.33 1.89 0.62 0.15 2.54 0.37 0.25 2.91 0.72 1.79 1972 3.62 0.44 0.68 0.30 0.32 1.89 0.61 0.15 2.54 0.39 0.25 2.91 0.73 1.60 1973 3.62 0.44 0.68 0.30 0.32 1.89 0.61 0.15 2.54 0.39 0.24 2.91 0.70 1.62 1974 5.03 0.53 0.68 0.36 0.41 1.89 0.78 0.15 2.54 0.39 0.36 2.91 1.04 2.46 1975 6.17 0.81 0.68 0.55 0.36 1.89 0.68 0.31 2.54 0.78 0.36 2.91 1.04 3.12 1976 6.82 0.58 0.68 0.39 0.39 1.89 0.73 0.31 2.54 0.78 0.39 2.91 1.14 3.78 1977 7.37 0.74 0.68 0.50 0.56 1.89 1.05 0.46 2.54 1.17 0.55 2.91 1.61 3.03 1978 9.98 0.74 0.68 0.50 0.77 1.89 1.46 0.58 2.54 1.47 0.70 2.91 2.02 4.53 1979 12.75 1.00 0.68 0.68 0.86 1.89 1.63 0.77 2.54 1.95 0.81 2.91 2.37 6.12 1980 15.22 1.00 0.68 0.68 1.00 1.89 1.89 1.00 2.54 2.54 1.00 2.91 2.91 7.20 1981 18.26 1.43 0.68 0.97 1.21 1.89 2.29 1.31 2.54 3.32 1.35 2.91 3.91 7.76 1982 22.01 2.01 0.68 1.37 1.56 1.89 2.94 2.13 2.54 5.40 1.83 2.91 5.34 6.96 1983 28.92 3.43 0.68 2.33 1.79 1.89 3.37 2.36 2.54 5.99 2.68 2.91 7.79 9.44 1984 42.20 4.65 0.68 3.16 2.52 1.89 4.76 3.27 2.54 8.31 3.72 2.91 10.82 15.15 Table I.1 cont. RICE, national and center RICE, national and center ..................................................................................................................................... cif kt ........FERTILISER... ...........FUEL.......... FERT PEST FUEL OTHER YEAR price costs PU Index coeff cost Index coeff cost VAI E*/E (1+tm) PW* cost cost cost cost . ..................................................................................................................... 1960 2.51 0.05 2.56 0.27 1.19 0.32 0.11 3.43 0.37 0.52 0.90 0.86 2.31 0.33 0.63 0.35 0.83 0.16 1961 2.58 0.05 2.63 0.27 1.19 0.32 0.11 3.43 0.38 0.58 0.95 0.86 2.51 0.34 0.65 0.38 0.84 0.31 1962 4.06 0.05 4.11 0.25 1.19 0.30 0.11 3.43 0.39 2.12 0.94 0.91 3.89 0.31 0.60 0.38 0.77 1.83 1963 2.83 0.05 2.88 0.26 1.19 0.31 0.13 3.43 0.45 0.80 1.01 1.00 2.91 0.31 0.59 0.45 0.73 0.81 1964 2.78 0.05 2.83 0.26 1.19 0.31 0.13 3.43 0.45 0.75 0.91 0.88 2.58 0.32 0.61 0.43 0.80 0.42 1965 2.43 0.05 2.48 0.27 1.19 0.32 0.13 3.43 0.45 0.38 0.92 0.89 2.29 0.33 0.62 0.43 0.80 0.11 1966 2.86 0.06 2.92 0.27 1.19 0.33 0.13 3.43 0.45 0.77 0.93 0.92 2.74 0.34 0.63 0.43 0.81 0.54 1967 3.12 0.06 3.18 0.26 1.19 0.31 0.13 3.43 0.45 1.10 0.89 0.90 2.84 0.31 0.60 0.42 0.78 0.73 1968 3.19 0.06 3.25 0.27 1.19 0.32 0.15 3.43 0.51 1.09 0.99 1.01 3.22 0.31 0.59 0.50 0.73 1.07 1969 2.66 0.06 2.72 0.26 1.19 0.31 0.15 3.43 0.51 0.56 1.03 1.13 2.80 0.30 0.56 0.52 0.68 0.75 I 1970 2.84 0.06 2.90 0.26 1.19 0.31 0.13 3.43 0.45 0.77 1.00 1.04 2.91 0.31 0.61 0.45 0.72 0.83 1971 4.26 0.07 4.33 0.25 1.19 0.30 0.14 3.43 0.47 2.23 1.01 1.06 4.37 0.29 0.60 0.47 0.69 2.32 m 1972 2.53 0.07 2.60 0.25 1.19 0.30 0.14 3.43 0.47 0.49 1.00 1.09 2.59 0.28 0.58 0.46 0.68 0.58 1973 4.30 0.08 4.38 0.25 1.19 0.30 0.14 3.43 0.47 2.29 1.03 1.10 4.50 0.29 0.59 0.47 0.66 2.49 1974 8.10 0.10 8.20 0.30 1.19 0.36 0.19 3.43 0.67 5.35 1.03 0.97 8.44 0.37 0.81 0.69 1.07 5.50 1975 6.86 0.12 6.98 0.46 1.19 0.54 0.23 3.43 0.79 3.93 1.05 0.97 7.35 0.56 0.70 0.82 1.08 4.18 1976 6.70 0.14 6.84 0.46 1.19 0.54 0.29 3.43 0.98 3.45 1.07 0.97 7.32 0.57 0.76 1.04 1.18 3.76 1977 8.18 0.18 8.36 0.54 1.19 0.64 0.37 3.43 1.27 3.78 1.17 1.10 9.69 0.65 1.01 1.44 1.54 5.00 1978 10.58 0.22 10.80 0.73 1.19 0.87 0.43 3.43 1.47 4.98 1.13 1.14 12.16 0.85 1.43 1.61 1.88 6.39 1979 11.68 0.27 11.95 0.88 1.19 1.05 0.57 3.43 1.96 4.94 0.96 0.94 11.50 1.08 1.67 1.91 2.47 4.38 1980 12.95 0.32 13.27 1.00 1.19 1.19 1.00 3.43 3.43 3.85 1.11 1.11 14.63 1.17 1.86 3.69 2.74 5.16 1981 23.17 0.38 23.55 1.34 1.19 1.59 1.23 3.43 4.22 11.54 1.10 1.03 25.97 1.63 2.35 4.57 3.91 13.51 1982 21.40 0.46 21.86 1.67 1.19 1.98 1.56 3.43 5.35 6.24 1.15 1.08 25.07 2.02 3.00 5.98 5.18 8.89 1983 24.41 0.58 24.99 2.08 1.19 2.47 2.29 3.43 7.84 3.51 1.14 1.15 28.43 2.43 3.31 8.65 7.20 6.84 1984 34.22 0.75 34.97 2.63 1.19 3.13 2.43 3.43 8.33 7.93 1.11 1.15 38.60 3.03 4.60 8.94 9.93 12.10 Table I.1 cont. TOMATOES, national and center costs and value added at market prices ...... ...................................................................................................................... PRICE ........FERTILISER......... ........PESTICIDES........ ...........FUEL.......... .........OTHER INPUTS...... YEAR P Index coeff cost Index coeff cost index coeff cost index coeff cost VA q .. .......................................................................................................... 1960 0.54 0.47 0.13 0.06 0.32 0.13 0.04 0.15 0.15 0.02 0.26 0.21 0.05 0.36 1961 0.54 0.47 0.13 0.06 0.32 0.13 0.04 0.15 0.15 0.02 0.26 0.21 0.05 0.36 1962 0.54 0.45 0.13 0.06 0.31 0.13 0.04 0.15 0.15 0.02 0.25 0.21 0.05 0.37 1963 0.54 0.46 0.13 0.06 0.31 0.13 0.04 0.15 0.15 0.02 0.25 0.21 0.05 0.36 1964 0.54 0.46 0.13 0.06 0.31 0.13 0.04 0.15 0.15 0.02 0.25 0.21 0.05 0.36 1965 0.54 0.47 0.13 0.06 0.31 0.13 0.04 0.15 0.15 0.02 0.25 0.21 0.05 0.36 1966 0.54 0.49 0.13 0.06 0.32 0.13 0.04 0.15 0.15 0.02 0.26 0.21 0.06 0.36 1967 0.54 0.46 0.13 0.06 0.31 0.13 0.04 0.15 0.15 0.02 0.25 0.21 0.05 0.37 1968 0.54 0.47 0.13 0.06 0.31 0.13 0.04 0.15 0.15 0.02 0.25 0.21 0.05 0.36 1969 0.55 0.47 0.13 0.06 0.31 0.13 0.04 0.15 0.15 0.02 0.25 0.21 0.05 0.37 1970 0.57 0.46 0.13 0.06 0.33 0.13 0.04 0.15 0.15 0.02 0.25 0.21 0.05 0.39 1971 0.60 0.44 0.13 0.06 0.33 0.13 0.04 0.15 0.15 0.02 0.25 0.21 0.05 0.43 1972 0.61 0.44 0.13 0.06 0.32 0.13 0.04 0.15 0.15 0.02 0.25 0.21 0.05 0.44 1973 0.69 0.44 0.13 0.06 0.32 0.13 0.04 0.15 0.15 0.02 0.24 0.21 0.05 0.52 1974 1.44 0.53 0.13 0.07 0.41 0.13 0.05 0.15 0.15 0.02 0.36 0.21 0.08 1.22 1975 1.41 0.81 0.13 0.10 0.36 0.13 0.05 0.31 0.15 0.05 0.36 0.21 0.08 1.14 1976 1.36 0.58 0.13 0.08 0.39 0.13 0.05 0.31 0.15 0.05 0.39 0.21 0.08 1.11 1977 1.47 0.74 0.13 0.10 0.56 0.13 0.07 0.46 0.15 0.07 0.55 0.21 0.12 1.12 1978 1.74 0.74 0.13 0.10 0.77 0.13 0.10 0.58 0.15 0.09 0.70 0.21 0.15 1.31 1979 2.24 1.00 0.13 0.13 0.86 0.13 0.11 0.77 0.15 0.12 0.81 0.21 0.17 1.71 1980 2.96 1.00 0.13 0.13 1.00 0.13 0.13 1.00 0.15 0.15 1.00 0.21 0.21 2.34 1981 3.35 1.43 0.13 0.19 1.21 0.13 0.16 1.31 0.15 0.20 1.35 0.21 0.28 2.53 1982 4.47 2.01 0.13 0.26 1.56 0.13 0.20 2.13 0.15 0.32 1.83 0.21 0.39 3.30 1983 5.43 3.43 0.13 0.45 1.79 0.13 0.23 2.36 0.15 0.35 2.68 0.21 0.56 3.84 1984 6.79 4.65 0.13 0.60 2.52 0.13 0.33 3.27 0.15 0.49 3.72 0.21 0.78 4.59 Table I.1 cont. TOMATOES, national and center TOMATOES, national and center .................................................................................................................................... cif skt ........FERTILISER... ...........FUEL.......... FERT PEST FUEL OTHER YEAR price costs PU index coeff cost index coeff cost VA1 E*/E (1+tm) PW* cost cost cost cost yAi . .. ................................................................................................................... 1960 0.54 0.00 0.54 0.27 0.22 0.06 0.11 0.20 0.02 0.36 0.90 0.86 0.48 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.30 1961 0.54 0.00 0.54 0.27 0.22 0.06 0.11 0.20 0.02 0.36 0.95 0.86 0.51 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.32 1962 0.54 0.00 0.54 0.25 0.22 0.06 0.11 0.20 0.02 0.37 0.94 .0.91 0.51 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.33 1963 0.54 0.00 0.54 0.26 0.22 0.06 0.13 0.20 0.03 0.36 1.01 1.00 0.54 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.37 1964 0.54 0.00 0.54 0.26 0.22 0.06 0.13 0.20 0.03 0.36 0.91 0.88 0.49 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.31 1965 0.54 0.00 0.54 0.27 0.22 0.06 0.13 0.20 0.03 0.36 0.92 0.89 0.50 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.31 1966 0.54 0.00 0.54 0.27 0.22 0.06 0.13 0.20 0.03 0.36 0.93 0.92 0.50 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.32 1967 0.54 0.00 0.54 0.26 0.22 0.06 0.13 0.20 0.03 0.36 0.89 0.90 0.48 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.30 1968 0.54 0.00 0.54 0.27 0.22 0.06 0.15 0.20 0.03 0.36 0.99 1.01 0.53 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.35 1969 0.54 0.00 0.54 0.26 0.22 0.06 0.15 0.20 0.03 0.36 1.03 1.13 0.56 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.39 1970 0.54 0.00 0.54 0.26 0.22 0.06 0.13 0.20 0.03 0.36 1.00 1.04 0.54 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.37 co 1971 0.51. 0.00 0.54 0.25 0.22 0.06 0.14 0.20 0.03 0.36 1.01 1.06 0.55 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.37 4 1972 0.54 0.00 0.54 0.25 0.22 0.06 0.14 0.20 0.03 0.36 1.00 1.09 0.5 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.37 1973 0.69 0.00 0.69 0.25 0.22 0.06 0.14 0.20 0.03 0.51 1.03 1.10 0.71 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.54 1974 0.89 0.00 0.89 0.30 0.22 0.07 0.19 0.20 0.04 0.66 1.03 0.97 0.92 0.07 0.06 0.04 0.08 0.67 1975 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.46 0.22 0.10 0.23 0.20 0.05 0.73 1.05 0.97 1.05 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.77 1976 1.22 0.00 1.22 0.46 0.22 0.10 0.29 0.20 0.06 0.93 1.07 0.97 1.31 0.10 0.05 0.06 0.09 1.00 1977 1.47 0.00 1.47 0.54 0.22 0.12 0.37 0.20 0.07 1.09 1.17 1.10 1.71 0.12 0.07 0.08 0.11 1.32 1978 1.60 0.00 1.60 0.73 0.22 0.16 0.43 0.20 0.09 1.11 1.13 1.14 1.81 0.16 0.10 0.09 0.14 1.33 1979 1.80 0.00 1.80 0.88 0.22 0.19 0.57 0.20 0.11 1.21 0.96 0.94 1.73 0.20 0.11 0.11 0.18 1.12 1980 2.08 0.00 2.08 1.00 0.22 0.22 1.00 0.20 0.20 1.32 1.11 1.11 2.30 0.22 0.13 0.22 0.20 1.55 1981 2.65 0.00 2.65 1.34 0.22 0.29 1.23 0.20 0.25 1.67 1.10 1.03 2.93 0.30 0.16 0.27 0.28 1.92 1982 4.12 0.00 4.12 1.67 0.22 0.37 1.56 0.20 0.31 2.85 1.15 1.08 4.75 0.37 0.21 0.35 0.37 3.44 1983 5.19 0.00 5.19 2.08 0.22 0.46 2.29 0.20 0.46 3.48 1.14 1.15 5.94 0.45 0.23 0.50 0.52 4.24 1984 5.90 0.00 5.90 2.63 0.22 0.58 2.43 0.20 0.49 3.73 1.11 1.15 6.54 0.56 0.32 0.52 0.72 4.43 Table 1.1 cont. CORN, center costs and value added at market prices ............................................................... I................................................................. PRICE ........FERTILISER......... ........PESTICIDES........ ...........FUEL.......... .........OTHER INPUTS...... YEAR P index coeff cost index coeff cost index coeff cost index coeff cost V0 2 . 0 .7 0.3. .1 ...............7........................................... 1960 2.25 0.47 0.78 0.37 0.32 0.31 0.10 0.15 0.78 0.11 0.26 0.49 0.13 1.54 1961 2.07 0.47 0.78 0.37 0.32 0.31 0.10 0.15 0.78 0.11 0.26 0.49 0.13 1.36 1962 2.14 0.45 0.78 0.35 0.31 0.31 0.09 0.15 0.78 0.11 0.25 0.49 0.12 1.46 1963 2.15 0.46 0.78 0.36 0.31 0.31 0.10 0.15 0.78 0.11 0.25 0.49 0.12 1.45 1964 2.12 0.46 0.78 0.36 0.31 0.31 0.10 0.15 0.78 0.11 0.25 0.49 0.12 1.42 1965 2.63 0.47 0.78 0.37 0.31 0.31 0.10 0.15 0.78 0.11 0.25 0.49 0.12 1.93 1966 2.49 0.49 0.78 0.38 0.32 0.31 0.10 0.15 0.78 0.11 0.26 0.49 0.13 1.77 1967 2.43 0.46 0.78 0.36 0.31 0.31 0.10 0.15 0.78 0.11 0.25 0.49 0.12 1.74 1968 2.46 0.47 0.78 0.37 0.31 0.31 0.10 0.15 0.78 0.11 0.25 0.49 0.12 1.76 1969 2.43 0.47 0.78 0.36 0.31 0.31 0.10 0.15 0.78 0.11 0.25 0.49 0.12 1.73 1970 2.34 0.46 0.78 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.10 0.15 0.78 0.11 0.25 0.49 0.12 1.64 1971 2.77 0.44 0.78 0.34 0.33 0.31 0.10 0.15 0.78 0.11 0.25 0.49 0.12 2.09 1972 2.77 0.44 0.78 0.34 0.32 0.31 0.10 0.15 0.78 0.12 0.25 0.49 0.12 2.09 1973 2.62 0.44 0.78 0.34 0.32 0.31 0.10 0.15 0.78 0.12 0.24 0.49 0.12 1.94 1974 3.88 0.53 0.78 0.41 0.41 0.31 0.13 0.15 0.78 0.12 0.36 0.49 0.18 3.04 1975 5.36 0.81 0.78 0.63 0.36 0.31 0.11 0.31 0.78 0.24 0.36 0.49 0.18 4.20 1976 5.35 0.58 0.78 0.45 0.39 0.31 0.12 0.31 0.78 0.24 0.39 0.49 0.19 4.35 1977 6.38 0.74 0.78 0.58 0.56 0.31 0.17 0.46 0.78 0.36 0.55 0.49 0.27 5.00 1978 7.23 0.74 0.78 0.58 0.77 0.31 0.24 0.58 0.78 0.45 0.70 0.49 0.34 5.62 1979 8.32 1.00 0.78 0.78 0.86 0.31 0.27 0.77 0.78 0.60 0.81 0.49 0.40 6.27 1980 9.64 1.00 0.78 0.78 1.00 0.31 0.31 1.00 0.78 0.78 1.00 0.49 0.49 7.28 1981 12.78 1.43 0.78 1.12 1.21 0.31 0.38 1.31 0.78 1.02 1.35 0.49 0.66 9.61 1982 15.09 2.01 0.78 1.57 1.56 0.31 0.48 2.13 0.78 1.66 1.83 0.49 0.90 10.48 1983 23.73 3.43 0.78 2.68 1.79 0.31 0.55 2.36 0.78 1.84 2.68 0.49 1.31 17.35 1984 32.50 4.65 0.78 3.63 2.52 0.31 0.78 3.27 0.78 2.55 3.72 0.49 1.82 23.72 Table 1.1 coat. CORN, center CORN, center .................................................................................................................................... cif ukt ........FERTILISER ... ...........FUEL.......... FERT PEST FUEL OTHER YEAR price costs PW Index coeff cost index coeff cost VAI E*/E (1+tm) PU* cost cost cost cost 4A* 1 ..... 1.6. . ................................................................................7 1960 1.56 0.06 1.62 0.27 1.37 0.37 0.11 1.05 0.11 0.92 0.88 0.86 1.45 0.38 0.10 0.11 0.14 0.72 1961 1.81 0.06 1.87 0.27 1.37 0.37 0.11 1.05 0.12 1.16 0.82 0.86 1.55 0.37 0.10 0.10 0.14 0.83 1962 1.84 0.06 1.90 0.25 1.37 0.35 0.11 1.05 0.12 1.22 0.92 0.91 1.76 0.36 0.10 0.11 0.13 1.07 1963 1.76 0.06 1.80 0.26 1.37 0.36 0.13 1.05 0.14 1.08 0.99 1.00 1.78 0.36 0.10 0.14 0.12 1.07 1964 1.76 0.06 1.82 0.26 1.37 0.36 0.13 1.05 0.14 1.10 0.91 0.88 1.67 0.37 0.10 0.13 0.13 0.93 1965 1.88 0.07 1.95 0.27 1.37 0.37 0.13 1.05 0.14 1.22 0.91 0.89 1.80 0.38 0.10 0.13 0.13 1.05 1966 1.92 0.07 1.99 0.27 1.37 0.38 0.13 1.05 0.14 1.25 0.95 0.92 1.90 0.39 0.10 0.13 0.14 1.14 1967 1.89 0.07 1.96 0.26 1.37 0.36 0.13 1.05 0.14 1.25 0.97 0.90 1.91 0.37 0.10 0.14 0.13 1.16 1968 1.90 0.07 1.96 0.27 1.37 0.37 0.15 1.05 0.16 1.23 1.02 1.01 2.01 0.37 0.10 0.16 0.12 1.27 1969 1.86 0.08 1.94 0.26 1.37 0.36 0.15 1.05 0.16 1.20 1.11 1.13 2.14 0.35 0.10 0.17 0.12 1.41w 1970 2.10 0.08 2.18 0.26 1.37 0.36 0.13 1.05 0.14 1.46 1.05 1.04 2.27 0.36 0.10 0.14 0.12 1.55 1971 1.98 0.09 2.07 0.25 1.37 0.34 0.14 1.05 0.14 1.36 1.06 1.06 2.19 0.34 0.10 0.15 0.12 1.48 1972 1.77 0.09 1.86 0.25 1.37 0.34 0.14 1.05 0.14 1.15 1.11 1.09 2.04 0.34 0.10 0.15 0.12 1.33 1973 2.52 0.10 2.62 0.25 1.37 0.35 0.14 1.05 0.14 1.91 1.09 1.10 2.83 0.34 0.10 0.15 0.11 2.13 1974 4.87 0.12 4.99 0.30 1.37 0.42 0.19 1.05 0.20 4.07 0.93 0.97 4.64 0.41 0.13 0.19 0.18 3.73 1975 3.98 0.14 4.12 0.46 1.37 0.62 0.23 1.05 0.24 2.97 0.90 0.97 3.74 0.61 0.11 0.22 0.18 2.62 1976 3.91 0.17 4.08 0.46 1.37 0.62 0.29 1.05 0.30 2.85 0.88 0.97 3.63 0.61 0.12 0.27 0.19 2.45 1977 4.29 0.22 4.51 0.54 1.37 0.74 0.37 1.05 0.39 2.93 0.97 1.10 4.35 0.69 0.16 0.37 0.25 2.88 1978 4.99 0.27 5.26 0.73 1.37 1.00 0.43 1.05 0.45 3.23 1.04 1.14 5.43 0.94 0.23 0.46 0.31 3.49 1979 6.44 0.34 6.78 0.88 1.37 1.21 0.57 1.05 0.60 4.30 0.96 0.94 6.51 1.24 0.27 0.58 0.42 4.01 1980 7.58 0.39 7.97 1.00 1.37 1.37 1.00 1.05 1.05 4.75 1.03 1.11 8.16 1.31 0.30 1.06 0.45 5.04 1981 10.58 0.47 11.05 1.34 1.37 1.83 1.23 1.05 1.29 6.89 0.94 1.03 10.37 1.75 0.36 1.22 0.64 6.41 1982 10.30 0.57 10.87 1.67 1.37 2.28 1.56 1.05 1.64 5.57 0.96 1.08 10.38 2.14 0.45 1.56 0.84 5.39 1983 16.11 0.71 16.82 2.08 1.37 2.85 2.29 1.05 2.40 9.71 1.04 1.15 17.36 2.67 0.52 2.43 1.19 10.55 1984 22.89 0.92 23.81 2.63 1.37 3.61 2.43 1.05 2.55 15.05 1.07 1.15 25.26 3.43 0.74 2.65 1.66 16.78 Table 1.1 cont. UNEAT,center costs and value added at market prices ............................................................................................................................... PRICE ........FERTILISER......... ........PESTICIDES........ ...........FUEL.......... .........OTHER INPUTS...... YEAR P Index coeff cost Index coeff cost index coeff cost index coeff cost VA . .. ............................................................................................................ 1960 2.97 0.47 1.42 0.67 0.32 0.63 0.20 0.15 2.66 0.39 0.26 1.58 0.41 1.30 1961 2.97 0.47 1.42 0.67 0.32 0.63 0.20 0.15 2.66 0.39 0.26 1.58 0.41 1.30 1962 2.97 0.45 1.42 0.66 0.31 0.63 0.19 0.15 2.66 0.39 0.25 1.58 0.39 1.36 1963 3.02 0.46 1.42 0.66 0.31 0.63 0.20 0.15 2.66 0.39 0.25 1.58 0.40 1.38 1964 3.02 0.46 1.42 0.66 0.31 0.63 0.20 0.15 2.66 0.39 0.25 1.58 0.40 1.38 1965 3.24 0.47 1.42 0.67 0.31 0.63 0.20 0.15 2.66 0.39 0.25 1.58 0.40 1.58 1966 3.26 0.49 1.42 0.69 0.32 0.63 0.20 0.15 2.66 0.39 0.26 1.58 0.41 1.56 1967 3.26 0.47 1.42 0.65 0.31 0.63 0.20 0.15 2.66 0.39 0.25 1.58 0.40 1.63 1968 3.26 0.47 1.42 0.67 0.31 0.63 0.20 0.15 2.66 0.39 0.25 1.58 0.40 1.60 1969 3.26 0.47 1.42 0.66 0.31 0.63 0.20 0.15 2.66 0.39 0.25 1.58 0.40 1.61 1970 3.26 0.4 1.42 0.65 0.33 0.63 0.21 0.15 2.66 0.39 0.25 1.58 0.40 1.61 w 1971 3.55 0.44 1.42 0.62 0.33 0.63 0.21 0.15 2.66 0.39 0.25 1.58 0.39 1.95 I 1972 3.55 0.44 1.42 0.62 0.32 0.63 0.20 0.15 2.66 0.41 0.25 1.58 0.39 1.93 1973 3.55 0.44 1.42 0.62 0.32 0.63 0.20 0.15 2.66 0.41 0.24 1.58 0.38 1.94 1974 4.26 0.53 1.42 0.75 0.41 0.63 0.26 0.15 2.66 0.41 0.36 1.58 0.57 2.28 1975 4.94 0.81 1.42 1.14 0.36 0.63 0.23 0.31 2.66 0.82 0.36 1.58 0.57 2.18 1976 4.94 0.58 1.42 0.82 0.39 0.63 0.24 0.31 2.66 0.82 0.39 1.58 0.62 2.44 1977 6.05 0.74 1.42 1.05 0.56 0.63 0.35 0.46 2.66 1.23 0.55 1.58 0.87 2.55 1978 7.59 0.74 1.42 1.05 0.77 0.63 0.49 0.58 2.66 1.54 0.70 1.58 1.10 3.42 1979 11.22 1.00 1.42 1.42 0.86 0.63 0.54 0.77 2.66 2.05 0.81 1.58 1.29 5.93 1980 12.86 1.00 1.42 1.42 1.00 0.63 0.63 1.00 2.66 2.66 1.00 1.58 1.58 6.57 1981 14.69 1.43 1.42 2.03 1.21 0.63 0.76 1.31 2.66 3.48 1.35 1.58 2.13 6.29 1982 17.93 2.01 1.42 2.86 1.56 0.63 0.98 2.13 2.66 5.65 1.83 1.58 2.90 5.54 1983 23.80 3.43 1.42 4.87 1.79 0.63 1.12 2.36 2.66 6.27 2.68 1.58 4.23 7.30 1984 34.94 4.65 1.42 6.60 2.52 0.63 1.59 3.27 2.66 8.70 3.72 1.58 5.87 12.18 Table I.1'cont. FERT PEST FUEL OTHER percent tradabLe 0.41 0.41 0.85 0.2 UHEAT,center 11 cif okt ........FERTILISER... ...........FUEL.......... FERT PEST FUEL OTHER YEAR price costs Pu index coeff cost index coeff cost VA1 E*/E (1+tm) PW* cost cost cost cost A* 1960 1.96 0.05 2.01 0.27 2.4.9 0.66 0.11 3.89 0.42 0.32 0.90 0.86 1.82 0.70 0.21 0.40 0.44 0.07 1961 1.98 0.05 2.03 0.27 2.49 0.66 0.11 3.89 0.43 0.33 0.95 0.86 1.94 0.72 0.22 0.43 0.45 0.13 1962 2.02 0.05 2.07 0.25 2.49 0.63 0.11 3.89 0.44 0.42 0.94 0.91 1.96 0.65 0.20 0.43 0.41 0.27 1963 1.95 0.05 2.00 0.26 2.49 0.65 0.13 3.89 0.51 0.25 1.01 1.00 2.02 0.65 0.20 0.52 0.39 0.26 1964 2.11 0.05 2.16 0.26 2.49 0.65 0.13 3.89 0.51 0.41 0.91 0.88 1.97 0.68 0.20 0.48 0.43 0.18 1965 1.81 0.05 1.86 0.27 2.49 0.66 0.13 3.89 0.51 0.09 0.92 0.89 1.72 0.69 0.21 0.49 0.43 -0.09 1966 1.98 0.06 2.04 0.27 2.49 0.68 0.13 3.89 0.51 0.23 0.93 0.92 1.91 0.70 0.21 0.49 0.43 0.08 1967 2.07 0.06 2.13 0.26 2.49 0.65 0.13 3.89 0.51 0.39 0.89 0.90 1.91 0.66 0.20 0.47 0.42 0.16 1968 1.86 0.06 1.92 0.27 2.49 0.66 0.15 3.89 0.58 0.08 0.99 1.01 1.90 0.66 0.20 0.57 0.39 0.08 1969 1.69 0.06 1.75 0.26 2.49 0.66 0.15 3.89 0.58 -0.08 1.03 1.13 1.80 0.62 0.19 0.58 0.36 0.04 1970 2.02 0.06 2.08 0.26 2.49 0.65 0.13 3.89 0.51 0.31 1.00 1.04 2.09 0.64 0.20 0.51 0.39 0.35 I 1971 1.79 0.07 1.86 0.25 2.49 0.63 0.14 3.89 0.53 0.11 1.01 1.06 1.88 0.61 0.20 0.53 0.37 0.17 1972 2.13 0.07 2.20 0.25 2.49 0.63 0.14 3.89 0.53 0.45 1.00 1.09 2.19 0.59 0.19 0.52 0.36 0.51 1973 3.90 0.08 3.98 0.25 2.49 0.63 0.14 3.89 0.53 2.23 1.03 1.10 4.08 0.61 0.20 0.54 0.35 2.39 1974 5.61 0.10 5.71 0.30 2.49 0.76 0.19 3.89 0.76 3.38 1.03 0.97 5.88 0.78 0.27 0.78 0.58 3.48 1975 5.27 0.12 5.39 0.46 2.49 1.13 0.23 3.89 0.89 2.58 1.05 0.97 5.67 1.18 0.23 0.94 0.58 2.75 1976 4.62 0.14 4.76 0.46 2.49 1.13 0.29 3.89 1.11 1.66 1.07 0.97 5.09 1.19 0.25 1.18 0.63 1.83 1977 4.88 0.18 5.06 0.54 2.49 1.35 0.37 3.89 1.44 1.05 1.17 1.10 5.85 1.37 0.36 1.63 0.83 1.67 1978 5.92 0.22 6.14 0.73 2.49 1.81 0.43 3.89 1.67 1.09 1.13 1.14 6.89 1.78 0.48 1.82 1.01 1.80 1979 7.97 0.27 8.24 0.88 2.49 2.20 0.57 3.89 2.22 2.00 0.96 0.94 7.94 2.25 0.56 2.17 1.32 1.64 1980 9.74 0.32 10.06 1.00 2.49 2.49 1.00 3.89 3.89 1.49 1.11 1.11 11.08 2.45 0.62 4.19 1.47 2.34 1981 12.79 0.38 13.17 1.34 2.49 3.33 1.23 3.89 4.78 2.20 1.10 1.03 14.50 3.42 0.78 5.19 2.09 3.02 1982 13.23 0.46 13.69 1.67 2.49 4.15 1.56 3.89 6.07 -0.37 1.15 1.08 15.66 4.23 1.00 6.79 2.78 0.87 1983 17.49 0.58 18.07 2.08 2.49 5.18 2.29 3.89 8.89 -1.30 1.14 1.15 20.51 5.08 1.10 9.80 3.86 0.66 1984 23.49 0.75 24.24 2.63 2.49 6.56 2.43 3.89 9.45 0.85 1.11 1.15 26.70 6.35 1.53 10.14 5.32 3.36 Table I.1 cont. BEEF,south ................................................................................................................................. PRICE ........CONCENTRATE........ ........FORRAGE.......... ...........FUEL.......... .........OTHER INPUTS...... YEAR P index coeff cost index coeff cost index coeff cost index coeff cost . ................................................................................................................ 1960 20.38 0.21 27.48 5.74 0.24 33.39 8.17 0.15 2.64 0.39 0.17 2.08 0.36 5.7 1961 20.47 0.22 27.48 6.02 0.24 33.39 8.17 0.15 2.64 0.39 0.17 2.08 0.36 5.53 1962 20.46 0.24 27.48 6.68 0.24 33.39 7.92 0.15 2.64 0.39 0.18 2.08 0.38 5.10 1963 22.20 0.26 27.48 7.23 0.24 33.39 8.07 0.15 2.64 0.39 0.19 2.08 0.39 6.13 1964 24.48 0.30 27.48 8.33 0.24 33.39 8.07 0.15 2.64 0.39 0.19 2.08 0.40 7.30 1965 24.23 0.32 27.48 8.77 0.24 33.39 8.16 0.15 2.64 0.39 0.20 2.08 0.42 6.51 1966 27.62 0.32 27.48 8.77 0.25 33.39 8.32 0.15 2.64 0.39 0.22 2.08 0.45 9.70 1967 29.67 0.32 27.48 .77 0.24 33.39 8.03 0.15 2.64 0.39 0.22 2.08 0.46 12.02 1968 29.67 0.33 27.48 9.10 0.24 33.39 8.16 0.15 2.64 0.39 0.23 2.08 0.48 11.55 1969 30.13 0.33 27.48 9.12 0.24 33.39 8.12 0.15 2.64 0.39 0.24 2.08 0.49 12.01 1970 31.54 0.33 27.48 9.12 0.24 33.39 8.05 0.15 2.64 0.39 0.24 2.08 0.50 13.48 L 1971 36.69 0.34 27.48 9.32 0.23 33.39 7.82 0.15 2.64 0.39 0.26 2.08 0.53 18.63 1972 39.56 0.34 27.48 9.32 0.24 33.39 7.97 0.15 2.64 0.41 0.27 2.08 0.56 21.31 I 1973 53.60 0.35 27.48 9.62 0.24 33.39 7.91 0.15 2.64 0.41 0.29 2.08 0.61 35.05 1974 61.81 0.40 27.48 11.07 0.28 33.39 9.50 0.15 2.64 0.41 0.34 2.08 0.70 40.13 1975 70.65 0.51. 27.48 13.96 0.43 33.39 14.40 0.31 2.64 0.81 0.41 2.08 0.85 40.62 1976 85.12 0.51 '27.48 13.96 0.39 33.39 12.95 0.31 2.64 0.81 0.44 2.08 0.92 56.47 1977 113.30 0.56 27.48 15.33 0.55 33.39 18.20 0.46 2.64 1.22 0.56 2.08 1.16 77.38 1978 130.83 0.76 27.48 20.91 0.64 33.39 21.41 0.58 2.64 1.52 0.69 2.08 1.43 85.55 1979 182.03 0.95 27.48 26.22 0.83 33.39 27.75 0.77 2.64 2.03 0.86 2.08 1.78 124.25 1980 217.50 1.00 27.48 27.48 1.00 33.39 33.39 1.00 2.64 2.64 1.00 2.08 2.08 151.91 1981 216.06 1.36 27.48 37.37 1.34 33.39 44.89 1.31 2.64 3.45 1.20 2.08 2.50 127.85 1982 239.70 1.60 27.48 44.05 2.03 33.39 67.90 2.13 2.64 5.61 1.47 2.08 3.06 119.08 1983 360.00 3.04 27.48 83.46 2.67 33.39 89.20 2.36 2.64 6.22 1.84 2.08 3.84 177.28 1984 435.87 3.89 27.48 106.84 3.68 33.39 123.03 3.27 2.64 8.63 2.38 2.08 4.95 192.41 Table 1.1 cont. BEEF,south BEEF,south Of skt ...CONCENTRAT ....FORRAGE. .....FUEL..... CONC FORR FORR FUEL OTHER YEAR price costs PU index cost index cost index cost VA1 E*/E (1+tm) PU* cost ratio cost cost clst VA* 1960 13.52 1.49 15.01 0.93 5.34 0.18 8.15 0.11 0.39 0.77 0.90 0.86 13.87 5.33 0.19 9.65 0.36 0.40 -1.88 1961 12.48 1.49 13.97 0.98 5.87 0.18 8.24 0.11 0.40 -0.90 0.95 0.86 13.61 6.06 0.18 9.41 0.39 0.40 -2.66 1962 12.28 1.50 13.78 0.97 6.49 0.18 8.04 0.11 0.41 -1.53 0.94 0.91 13.24 6.51 0.18 9.38 0.39 0.40 -3.45 1963 12.43 1.54 13.97 0.96 6.93 0.19 8.61 0.13 0.47 -2.43 1.01 1.00 14.08 6.97 0.19 9.92 0.47 0.39 -3.67 1964 18.35 1.56 19.91 0.96 8.03 0.19 8.61 0.13 0.47 2.40 0.91 0.88 18.45 7.99 0.20 10.13 0.44 0.43 -0.55 1965 18.40 1.63 20.03 0.94 8.20 0.19 8.69 0.13 0.47 2.25 0.92 0.89 18.78 8.18 0.20 10.20 0.45 0.45 -0.50 1966 18.44 1.72 20.16 0,95 8.33 0.19 8.86 0.13 0.47 2.06 0.93 0.92 19.09 8.26 0.20 10.42 0.45 0.48 -0.51 1967 17.01 1.75 18.76 0.95 8.34 0.19 8.57 0.13 0.47 0.92 0.89 0.90 17.06 8.12 0.20 10.28 0.43 0.49 -2.27 1968 14.83 1.71 16.54 0.95 8.64 0.20 9.12 0.15 0.53 -2.24 0.99 1.01 16.36 8.55 0.21 10.65 0.53 0.48 -3.84 1969 15.51 1.92 17.43 0.95 8.66 0.20 9.09 0.15 0.53 -1.35 1.03 1.13 17.72 8.46 0.21 10.62 0.54 0.45 -2.35 1970 19.53 1.97 21.50 0.97 8.84 0.19 8.63 0.13 0.47 3.06 1.00 1.04 21.52 8.74 0.19 10.05 0.47 0.48 1.78 1971 23.50 2.12 25.62 0.89 8.26 0.19 8.56 0.14 0.49 7.78 1.01 1.06 25.75 8.13 0.19 9.99 0.49 0.51 6.63 1972 25.19 2.25 27.44 0.85 7.94 0.19 8.59 0.14 0.49 9.87 1.00 1.09 27.18 7.68 0.20 10.12 0.48 0.52 8.38 1973 28.88 2.46 31.34 1.00 9.62 0.19 8.56 0.14 0.49 12.06 1.03 1.10 31.95 9.46 0.19 9.96 0.49 0.57 11.46 1974 36.97 3.05 40.02 1.16 12.81 0.25 11.52 0.19 0.69 14.30 1.03 0.97 41.21 13.20 0.25 13.00 0.71 0.72 13.58 1975 27.92 3.55 31.47 1.05 14.67 0.32 14.37 0.23 0.82 0.75 1.05 0.97 33.06 15.33 0.31 16.00 0.86 0.88 -0.01 1976 29.02 4.30 33.32 1.05 14.60 0.35 16.01 0.29 1.02 0.76 1.07 0.97 35.51 15.42 0.34 17.57 1.09 0.96 0.47 1977 37.28 5.51 42.79 1.03 15.84 0.45 20.49 0.37 1.33 3.96 1.17 1.10 48.45 16.92 0.43 22.36 1.49 1.12 6.56 1978 47.06 6.71 53.77 0.97 20.19 0.56 25.46 0.43 1.53 5.16 1.13 1.14 59.12 20.89 0.55 28.48 1.67 1.33 6.75 1979 76.55 8.38 84.93 1.01 26.36 0.70 31.93 0.57 2.04 22.82 0.96 0.94 82.38 26.34 0.72 37.06 1.99 1.86 15.13 1980 100.00 9.72 109.72 1.06 29.19 1.00 45.45 1.00 3.57 29.43 1.11 1.11 119.54 30.05 1.00 51.55 3.84 1.96 32.14 1981 116.53 11.61 128.14 1.07 40.12 1.28 58.15 1.23 4.39 22.99 1.10 1.03 140.03 42.28 1.24 63.99 4.76 2.49 26.50 1982 148.15 14.17 162.32 0.98 42.96 1.64 74.38 1.56 5.57 36.34 1.15 1.08 183.76 45.80 1.58 81.31 6.23 2.97 47.46 1983 179.74 17.70 197.44 1.00 83.28 2.29 104.10 2.29 8.16 -1.94 1.14 1.15 220.99 86.58 2.27 117.19 9.00 3.55 4.68 1984 279.50 22.83 302.33 0.94 100.09 2.70 122.91 2.43 8.67 65.70 1.11 1.15 329.76 101.88 2.72 140.02 9.30 4.55 74.01 Table 1.1 cont. SHEEP, national and south PRICE ........CONCENTRATE........ ........FORRAGE.......... ...........FUEL.......... .........OTHER INPUTS...... YEAR P index coeff cost Index coeff cost index coeff cost index coeff cost VA 1960 40.23 0.19 39.32 7.39 0.24 97.99 23.99 0.15 18.99 2.78 0.17 19.71 3.43 2.64 1961 40.8 0.20 39.32 7.75 0.24 97.99 23.99 0.15 18.99 2.78 0.17 19.71 3.42 2.95 1962 39.54 0.22 39.32 8.61 0.24 97.99 23.25 0.15 18.99 2.78 0.18 19.71 3.55 1.34 1963 49.67 0.24 39.32 9.32 0.24 97.99 23.67 0.15 18.99 2.78 0.19 19.71 3.66 10.24 1964 63.03 0.27 39.32 10.66 0.24 97.99 23.67 0.15 18.99 2.78 0.19 19.71 3.77 22.15 1965 57.27 0.29 39.32 11.40 0.24 97.99 23.94 0.15 18.99 2.78 0.20 19.71 3.95 15.21 1966 65.42 0.29 39.32 11.56 0.25 97.99 24.41 0.15 18.99 2.78 0.22 19.71 4.27 22.41 1967 66.51 0.29 39.32 11.56 0.24 97.99 23.57 0.15 18.99 2.78 0.22 19.71 4.38 24.22 1968 63.38 0.29 39.32 11.56 0.24 97.99 23.94 0.15 18.99 2.78 0.23 19.71 4.55 20.56 1969 78.97 0.30 39.32 11.80 0.24 97.99 23.83 0.15 18.99 2.78 0.24 19.71 4.68 35.89 1970 77.78 0.30 39.32 11.80 0.24 97.99 23.63 0.15 18.99 2.78 0.24 19.71 4.74 34.84 1971 102.67 0.31 39.32 12.19 0.23 97.99 22.95 0.15 18.99 2.78 0.26 19.71 5.07 59.69 1972 117.22 0.32 39.32 12.39 0.24 97.99 23.40 0.15 18.99 2.91 0.27 19.71 5.30 73.22 1973 144.14 0.36 39.32 14.08 0.24 97.99 23.23 0.15 18.99 2.91 0.29 19.71 5.79 98.13 1974 178.86 0.41 39.32 16.08 0.28 97.99 27.87 0.15 18.99 2.91 0.34 19.71 6.65 125.34 1975 217.50 0.51 39.32 20.05 0.43 97.99 42.27 0.31 18.99 5.86 0.41 19.71 8.09 141.23 1976 242.88 0.51 39.32 20.05 0.39 97.99 38.02 0.31 18.99 5.86 0.44 19.71 8.76 170.19 1977 291.37 0.59 39.32 23.28 0.55 97.99 53.42 0.46 18.99 8.77 0.56 19.71 11.04 194.86 1978 309.25 0.76 39.32 29.69 0.64 97.99 62.83 0.58 18.99 10.97 0.69 19.71 13.58 192.19 1979 411.31 0.92 39.32 36.29 0.83 97.99 81.44 0.77 18.99 14.60 0.86 19.71 16.91 262.07 1980 469.21 1.00 39.32 39.32 1.00 97.99 97.99 1.00 18.99 18.99 1.00 19.71 19.71 293.20 1981 401.17 1.38 39.32 54.14 1.34 97.99 131.73 1.31 18.99 24.85 1.20 19.71 23.65 166.80 1982 508.15 1.57 39.32 61.81 2.03 97.99 199.26 2.13 18.99 40.37 1.47 19.71 28.99 177.72 1983 613.26 2.91 39.32 114.34 2.67 97.99 261.78 2.36 18.99 44.75 1.84 19.71 36.35 156.03 1984 757.30 3.76 39.32 147.84 3.68 97.99 361.06 3.27 18.99 62.11 2.38 19.71 46.95 139.34 Table 1.1 cont. SHEEP, national and south SHEEP, national and sout ............................................................................................................................................. cif mkt ...CONCENTRAT .... FORRAGE. .....FUEL..... CONC FORR FORR FUEL OTHER YEAR price costs PW index cost index cost index cost VA1 E*/E (1+tm) PU* cost ratio cost cost cost,1 VA* ..................................................................................................................................... ........ 1960 11.87 25.73 37.60 0.93 6.87 0.18 23.93 0.11 2.79 0.57 0.90 0.86 40.58 6.87 0.19 28.32 2.61 3.81 -1.03 1961 9.68 26.12 35.80 0.98 7.56 0.18 24.17 0.11 2.87 -2.22 0.95 0.86 39.59 7.80 0.18 27.62 2.82 3.83 -2.49 1962 10.35 25.32 35.67 0.97 8.37 0.18 23.60 0.11 2.93 -2.78 0.94 0.91 37.59 8.39 0.18 27.53 2.83 3.79 -4.96 1963 11.47 31.47 42.94 0.96 8.94 0.19 25.27 0.13 3.37 1.70 1.01 1.00 43.04 8.99 0.19 29.11 3.40 3.67 -2.12 1964 15.14 39.54 54.68 0.96 10.28 0.19 25.27 0.13 3.37 11.99 0.91 0.88 58.69 10.23 0.20 29.73 3.18 4.12 11.44 1965 14.96 36.14 51.10 0.94 10.67 0.19 25.52 0.13 3.37 7.60 0.92 0.89 54.39 10.65 0.20 29.92 3.21 4.27 6.34 1966 12.08 41.13 53.21 0.95 10.98 0.19 26.00 0.13 3.37 8.59 0.93 0.92 55.99 10.89 0.20 30.57 3.23 4.51 6.79 1967 10.58 41.82 52.40 0.95 11.00 0.19 25.16 0.13 3.37 8.49 0.89 0.90 55.87 10.71 0.20 30.18 3.11 4.67 7.20 1968 8.69 39.90 48.59 0.95 10.98 0.20 26.77 0.15 3.82 2.46 0.99 1.01 48.10 10.87 0.21 31.25 3.78 4.50 -2.30 1969 8.86 49.50 58.36 0.95 11.20 0.20 26.68 0.15 3.82 11.98 1.03 1.13 52.96 10.94 0.21 31.16 3.86 4.28 2.72 1 1970 10.60 48.83 59.43 0.97 11.43 0.19 25.32 0.13 3.37 14.57 1.00 1.04 57.60 11.30 0.19 29.48 3.37 4.60 8.86 1971 12.67 63.98 76.65 0.89 10.80 0.19 25.13 0.14 3.51 32.14 1.01 1.06 73.17 10.64 0.19 29.32 3.51 4.85 24.84 1972 16.73 72.88 89.61 0.85 10.56 0.19 25.20 0.14 3.51 45.05 1.00 1.09 83.54 10.20 0.20 29.71 3.46 4.94 35.22 1973 19.87 89.31 109.18 1.00 14.08 0.19 25.12 0.14 3.51 60.68 1.03 1.10 101.63 13.84 0.19 29.24 3.55 5.40 49.60 1974 30.61 110.81 141.42 1.16 18.61 0.25 33.80 0.19 4.99 77.37 1.03 0.97 145.75 19.17 0.25 38.14 5.14 6.85 76.46 1975 29.99 134.60 164.59 1.05 21.08 0.32 42.18 0.23 5.88 87.36 1.05 0.97 170.34 22.02 0.31 46.94 6.17 8.38 86.83 1976 28.29 150.64 178.93 1.05 20.98 0.35 47.00 0.29 7.33 94.87 1.07 0.97 185.60 22.15 0.34 51.57 7.80 9.10 94.97 1977 40.86 181.06 221.92 1.03 24.05 0.45 60.15 0.37 9.53 117.15 1.17 1.10 212.21 25.68 0.43 65.61 10.74 10.60 99.58 1978 47.86 193.04 240.90 0.97 28.66 0.56 74.72 0.43 11.01 112.94 1.13 1.14 223.47 29.65 0.55 83.58 12.03 12.60 85.61 1979 62.92 256.19 319.11 1.01 36.49 0.70 93.71 0.57 14.65 157.35 0.96 0.94 332.93 36.46 0.72 108.76 14.29 17.63 155.78 1980 104.56 292.42 396.98 1.06 41.77 1.00 133.40 1.00 25.66 176.44 1.11 1.11 379.28 42.99 1.00 151.28 27.63 18.57 138.80 1981 129.96 253.32 383.28 1.07 58.12 1.28 170.67 1.23 31.54 99.30 1.10 1.03 389.54 61.26 1.24 187.80 34.21 23.60 82.67 1982 147.35 320.33 467.68 0.98 60.28 1.64 218.32 1.56 40.04 120.04 1.15 1.08 466.32 64.26 1.58 238.61 44.76 28.16 90.53 1983 140.79 387.19 527.98 1.00 114.10 2.29 305.55 2.29 58.65 13.32 1.14 1.15 497.74 118.63 2.27 343.90 64.67 33.61 -63.08 1984 218.93 499.48 718.41 0.94 138.50 2.70 360.75 2.43 62.33 109.88 1.11 1.15 677.08 140.98 2.72 410.91 66.87 43.07 15.25 POTATOES(reat prices, 1963 escudos) ....................................................................................................... PRODUCT PRICE INPUT PRICE EXCHANGE RATE PRICE EFFECT EFFECT EFFECT YEAR P Pu PU* VA VA VA* TOTAL % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % ....................................................................................................... 1960 1.22 1.22 1.05 0.12 0.12 -0.09 0.21 177.52 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -1.49 0.21 179.01 1961 1.12 1.12 1.00 0.06 0.06 -0.09 0.15 246.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.15 246.02 1962 1.43 1.43 1.31 0.41 0.41 0.27 0.14 34.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.39 0.14 34.15 1963 1.15 1.15 1.16 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.00 3.67 0.00 0.00 0.01 9.00 -0.01 -5.33 1964 1.09 1.09 0.96 0.08 0.07 -0.09 0.17 220.39 0.00 0.00 0.01 14.68 0.16 205.71 1965 1.63 1.63 1.46 0.64 0.63 0.43 0.21 33.27 0.00 0.00 0.01 1.74 0.20 31.54 1966 1.86 1.86 1.71 0.88 0.87 0.69 0.18 21.04 0.00 0.00 0.01 1.22 0.17 19.82 1967 1.01 1.01 0.89 0.10 0.09 -0.06 0.16 159.10 0.00 0.00 0.01 10.43 0.15 148.67 1968 1.09 1.09 1.09 0.18 0.16 0.16 0.02 10.77 0.00 0.00 0.02 10.45 0.00 0.32 1969 1.41 1.41 1.54 0.56 0.54 0.68 -0.12 -21.55 0.00 0.00 0.02 3.19 -0.14 -24.74 1970 1.01 1.01 1.03 0.18 0.16 0.19 -0.02 -10.29 0.00 0.00 0.01 6.38 -0.03 -16.68 1971 1.25 1.25 1.30 0.47 0.46 0.51 -0.04 -8.46 0.00 0.00 0.01 3.18 -0.05 -11.64 1972 1.54 1.54 1.61 0.82 0.81 0.89 -0.07 -8.33 0.00 0.00 0.01 1.40 -0.08 -9.73 1973 1.62 1.62 1.74 0.96 0.95 1.07 -0.11 -11.54 0.00 0.00 0.01 1.29 -0.12 -12.83 1974 1.62 1.62 1.62 0.88 0.86 0.86 0.03 3.17 0.00 0.00 0.03 3.03 0.00 0.14 1975 2.07 2.07 2.09 1.34 1.34 1.37 -0.03 -2.05 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.10 -0.03 -1.95 1976 2.56 2.56 2.63 1.95 1.89 1.96 -0.01 -0.45 0.00 0.00 0.06 2.92 -0.07 -3.37 1977 1.99 1.99 2.34 1.32 1.28 1.63 -0.31 -23.22 0.00 0.00 0.04 2.88 -0.34 -26.10 1978 1.15 1.15 1.36 0.48 0.41 0.61 -0.14 -28.66 0.00 0.00 0.07 14.35 -0.21 -43.01 1979 2.05 2.05 1.91 1.36 1.30 1.16 0.20 14.63 0.00 0.00 0.06 4.41 0.14 10.22 1980 1.44 1.44 1.65 0.78 0.69 0.89 -0.11 -14.22 0.00 0.00 0.09 11.90 -0.20 -26.12 1981 1.70 1.70 1.85 0.95 0.86 1.01 -0.06 -6.22 0.00 0.00 0.09 9.45 -0.15 -15.66 1982 1.77 1.77 2.04 0.92 0.87 1.14 -0.21 -23.14 0.00 0.00 0.05 5.83 -0.27 -28.98 1983 1.69 1.69 2.02 0.71 0.67 0.99 -0.28 -39.61 0.00 0.00 0.04 5.87 -0.32 -45.47 1984 2.11 2.11 2.47 1.03 1.04 1.39 -0.36 -34.69 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.09 -0.36 -34.60 Table 1.2 cont. MILK (reat prices, 1963 escudos) PRODUCT PRICE INPUT PRICE EXCHANGE RATE PRICE EFFECT EFFECT EFFECT YEAR P PU Pt? VA VAI VA* TOTAL % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % 1960 2.12 2.12 2.03 0.61 0.65 0.47 0.14 22.91 0.00 0.00 -0.04 -6.54 0.18 29.45 1961 1.95 1.95 1.82 0.47 0.47 0.31 0.16 33.61 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -1.26 0.16 34.87 1962 2.01 2.01 1.95 0.49 0.49 0.35 0.14 29.41 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.67 0.15 30.08 1963 2.07 2.07 2.06 0.51 0.48 0.35 0.17 32.11 0.00 0.00 0.04 6.84 0.13 25.26 1964 2.31 2.31 2.23 0.72 0.68 0.52 0.20 27.96 0.00 0.00 0.04 5.09 0.16 22.87 1965 2.17 2.17 2.10 0.58 0.56 0.41 0.17 29.38 0.00 0.00 0.01 2.34 0.16 27.04 1966 2.31 2.31 2.27 0.74 0.72 0.57 0.17 22.80 0.00 0.00 0.02 2.98 0.15 19.81 1967 2.77 2.32 2.29 1.27 0.80 0.66 0.61 47.85 0.45 35.10 0.02 1.77 0.14 10.98 1968 2.72 2.28 2.30 1.23 0.73 0.61 0.61 50.09 0.44 35.74 0.06 5.12 0.11 9.22 1969 2.56 2.15 2.26 1.16 0.68 0.62 0.54 46.66 0.41 35.75 0.06 5.11 0.07 5.79 1970 2.50 2.10 2.14 1.13 0.70 0.61 0.52 46.25 0.40 35.62 0.03 2.94 0.09 7.69 1971 2.71 2.48 2.55 1.40 1.17 1.11 0.29 20.89 0.23 16.60 -0.00 -0.20 0.06 4.49 1972 2.55 2.27 2.38 1.33 1.08 1.05 0.28 21.18 0.28 21.33 -0.03 -2.42 0.03 2.27 1973 2.42 2.15 2.23 1.20 0.89 0.84 0.36 29.73 0.27 22.35 0.05 3.96 0.04 3.42 1974 2.66 2.39 2.32 1.51 1.03 0.90 0.61 40.21 0.27 18.04 0.21 13.75 0.13 8.42 1975 3.18 3.04 2.92 1.78 1.61 1.44 0.34 18.91 0.14 7.96 0.03 1.64 0.17 9.31 1976 3.17 3.05 2.92 2.02 1.74 1.58 0.44 21.78 0.12 6.01 0.15 7.51 0.17 8.26 1977 2.84 2.74 2.76 1.64 1.45 1.37 0.27 16.54 0.10 5.82 0.09 5.51 0.09 5.21 1978 3.25 3.17 3.30 2.03 1.87 1.86 0.18 8.68 0.08 3.83 0.08 4.02 0.02 0.84 1979 3.09 3.03 2.94 1.80 1.64 1.49 0.31 17.33 0.07 3.68 0.09 5.06 0.15 8.59 1980 2.58 2.44 2.52 1.32 0.91 0.82 0.50 37.68 0.14 10.83 0.26 19.64 0.09 7.21 1981 2.47 2.29 2.26 1.03 0.60 0.47 0.57 54.82 0.18 17.43 0.25 24.48 0.13 12.91 1982 2.50 2.35 2.35 0.93 0.72 0.60 0.33 35.80 0.15 15.82 0.06 6.51 0.13 13.47 1983 2.80 2.04 2.13 0.84 0.32 0.17 0.68 80.33 0.76 89.80 -0.24 -28.02 0.16 18.55 1984 2.37 2.29 2.41 0.30 0.28 0.15 0.15 60.71 0.08 26.34 -0.06 -20.51 0.13 44.87 Table 1.2 cont. WINE (reat prices, 1963 escudos) ................................................................................................... PRODUCT PRICE INPUT PRICE EXCHANGE RATE PRICE EFFECT EFFECT EFFECT YEAR P PU PW* VA VM VA* TOTAL % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % ESC/KG ...... ... a .................................................................. 1960 3.00 3.00 2.58 2.34 2.34 1.90 0.43 18.59 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.09 0.44 18.67 1961 3.41 3.41 3.03 2.76 2.76 2.38 0.38 13.87 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.04 0.38 13.91 1962 2.59 2.59 2.37 1.97 1.97 1.75 0.22 11.38 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.02 0.22 11.40 1963 2.22 2.22 2.23 1.60 1.59 1.61 -0.01 -0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 -0.01 -0.72 1964 2.20 2.20 1.93 1.58 1.58 1.30 0.28 17.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.28 17.65 1965 2.10 2.10 1.87 1.49 1.49 1.25 0.24 16.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.24 15.94 1966 2.76 2.76 2.53 2.16 2.16 1.92 0.24 11.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.24 10.99 1967 3.58 3.58 3.14 3.03 3.02 2.58 0.45 14.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.45 14.74 1968 3.31 3.31 3.30 2.76 2.75 2.75 0.01 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.30 0.00 0.05 1969 4.10 4.10 4.46 3.58 3.57 3.94 -0.36 -9.95 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.22 -0.36 -10.16 1970 3.53 3.53 3.62 3.02 3.02 3.11 -0.08 -2.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 -0.09 -2.94 1971 4.05 4.05 4.20 3.57 3.56 3.72 -0.15 -4.28 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.20 -0.16 -4.48 1972 4.39 4.39 4.60 3.96 3.95 4.16 -0.21 -5.24 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.13 -0.21 -5.37 1973 4.85 4.85 5.19 4.44 4.44 4.78 -0.34 -7.58 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.14 -0.34 -7.71 1974 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.55 2.54 2.54 0.01 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.50 0.00 0.09 1975 3.01 3.01 3.05 2.59 2.59 2.63 -0.04 -1.47 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.06 -0.04 -1.40 1976 3.36 3.36 3.45 3.01 2.97 3.06 -0.05 -1.71 0.00 0.00 0.03 1.14 -0.09 -2.86 1977 4.80 4.80 5.63 4.41 4.39 5.21 -0.80 -18.21 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.53 -0.83 -18.74 1978 7.96 7.96 9.37 7.56 7.52 8.93 -1.36 -18.05 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.58 -1.41 -18.63 1979 3.48 3.48 3.24 3.08 3.04 2.81 0.27 8.87 0.00 0.00 0.04 1.25 0.23 7.62 1980 3.25 3.25 3.71 2.87 2.81 3.27 -0.41 -14.15 0.00 0.00 0.06 1.92 -0.46 -16.07 1981 4.51 4.51 4.91 4.09 4.04 4.43 -0.34 -8.39 0.00 0.00 0.05 1.32 -0.40 -9.71 1982 3.28 3.28 3.77 2.80 2.77 3.26 -0.46 -16.33 0.00 0.00 0.03 1.22 -0.49 -17.56 1983 3.04 3.04 3.62 2.51 2.49 3.07 -0.56 -22.17 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.84 -0.58 -23.01 1984 2.69 2.69 3.14 2.11 2.11 2.56 -0.45 -21.26 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.07 -0.45 -21.19 Table 1.2 cont. RICE (reat prices, 1963 escudos) PRODUCT PRICE INPUT PRICE EXCHANGE RATE PRICE EFFECT EFFECT EFFECT YEAR P Pu PW* VA VA VA* TOTAL % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % 1960 2.76 2.71 2.34 0.60 0.55 0.17 0.43 71.03 0.05 8.78 -0.00 -0.39 0.38 62.63 1961 2.77 2.68 2.40 0.69 0.59 0.32 0.38 54.30 0.09 13.25 0.01 1.29 0.28 39.76 1962 2.79 4.19 3.85 0.78 2.16 1.87 -1.08 -138.49 -1.40 -178.44 0.02 2.14 0.30 37.81 1963 2.80 2.88 2.89 0.79 0.80 0.81 -0.02 -2.69 -0.08 -10.10 0.08 9.60 -0.02 -2.19 1964 2.93 2.80 2.47 0.94 0.74 0.42 0.53 55.90 0.13 13.65 0.08 7.99 0.32 34.25 1965 2.89 2.38 2.13 0.94 0.36 0.11 0.83 88.34 0.51 53.94 0.07 7.73 0.25 26.67 1966 2.98 2.70 2.49 1.06 0.71 0.50 0.56 53.02 0.28 26.24 0.07 6.64 0.21 20.14 1967 2.98 2.84 2.51 1.19 0.98 0.65 0.54 45.48 0.14 11.96 0.07 5.69 0.33 27.83 1968 3.11 2.85 2.85 1.34 0.95 0.94 0.39 29.44 0.26 19.70 0.12 8.91 0.01 0.82 0' 1969 3.00 2.25 2.44 1.33 0.46 0.62 0.71 53.44 0.75 56.67 0.11 8.45 -0.16 -11.68 0 1970 2.99 2.34 2.39 1.34 0.62 0.67 0.67 50.28 0.65 48.72 0.06 4.77 -0.04 -3.20 1 1971 2.94 3.36 3.48 1.38 1.72 1.80 -0.42 -30.14 -0.42 -30.23 0.08 5.65 -0.08 -5.56 1972 2.57 1.84 1.93 1.13 0.35 0.41 0.72 63.58 0.72 63.91 0.06 5.17 -0.06 -5.49 1973 2.43 2.94 3.14 1.09 1.54 1.67 -0.58 -53.83 -0.51 -46.97 0.06 5.29 -0.13 -12.15 1974 2.73 4.46 4.45 1.34 2.91 2.99 -1.66 -124.00 -1.72 -129.00 0.15 11.37 -0.08 -6.37 1975 2.91 3.29 3.33 1.47 1.86 1.97 -0.50 -33.83 -0.38 -25.96 *0.00 -0.11 -0.11 -7.76 1976 2.76 2.76 2.83 1.53 1.39 1.52 0.01 0.34 -0.01 -0.53 0.14 9.12 -0.13 -8.25 1977 2.34 2.65 3.10 0.96 1.20 1.59 -0.62 -64.67 -0.31 -32.63 0.08 7.95 -0.38 -39.99 1978 2.59 2.81 3.29 1.18 1.29 1.66 -0.48 -41.24 -0.21 -18.12 0.10 8.10 -0.37 -31.22 1979 2.82 2.64 2.47 1.35 1.09 0.97 0.38 28.47 0.18 13.08 0.08 6.19 0.12 9.21 1980 2.71 2.36 2.69 1.28 0.69 0.92 0.36 28.29 0.35 27.08 0.25 19.44 -0.23 -18.24 1981 2.74 3.53 3.84 1.16 1.73 2.03 -0.86 -74.11 -0.79 -68.18 0.23 19.48 -0.30 -25.41 1982 2.70 2.68 3.08 0.85 0.77 1.09 -0.24 -27.71 0.02 2.15 0.07 8.15 -0.32 -38.02 1983 2.88 2.49 2.95 0.94 0.35 0.68 0.26 27.55 0.39 41.65 0.20 21.13 -0.33 -35.24 1984 3.33 2.76 3.21 1.20 0.63 0.96 0.24 20.19 0.57 47.71 -0.00 -0.03 -0.33 -27.49 Table 1.2 cont. TOMATO (real prices, 1963 escudos) .............................................................................................................. PRODUCT PRICE INPUT PRICE EXCHANGE RATE PRICE EFFECT EFFECT EFFECT YEAR P Pu Pt? VA VAI VA* TOTAL % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % . .. ............................................................................................ 1960 0.57 0.57 0.49 0.38 0.39 0.32 0.07 17.22 0.00 0.00 *0.00 -0.79 0.07 18.01 1961 0.55 0.55 0.49 0.37 0.37 0.33 0.04 10.40 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.61 0.04 11.02 1962 0.55 0.55 0.50 0.38 0.38 0.34 0.04 9.47 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.45 0.04 9.92 1963 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.36 0.36 0.37 -0.00 -0.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.48 -0.00 -1.15 1964 0.53 0.53 0.47 0.36 0.36 0.30 0.06 16.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.48 0.06 15.56 1965 0.52 0.52 0.46 0.35 0.35 0.30 0.05 14.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.47 0.05 13.74 1966 0.50 0.50 0.46 0.33 0.33 0.29 0.04 11.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.46 0.04 11.23 1967 0.48 0.48 0.42 0.33 0.32 0.27 0.06 17.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.06 17.40 1968 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.01 2.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.43 0.00 1.08 1969 0.45 0.45 0.49 0.31 0.30 0.32 -0.01 -3.25 0.01 2.68 0.00 1.40 -0.02 -7.33 1970 0.46 0.44 0.45 0.32 0.29 0.30 0.02 6.66 0.02 7.65 0.00 0.60 -0.01 -1.59 1971 0.47 0.42 0.43 0.33 0.28 0.29 0.04 12.47 0.05 14.05 0.00 0.97 -0.01 -2.55 1972 0.43 0.38 0.40 0.31 0.26 0.26 0.05 15.11 0.05 16.06 0.00 0.70 -0.01 -1.65 1973 0.46 0.46 0.50 0.35 0.34 0.36 -0.02 -4.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.70 -0.02 -5.22 1974 0.78 0.48 0.48 0.66 0.36 0.37 0.30 44.68 0.30 45.10 0.01 1.15 -0.01 -1.58 1975 0.67 0.47 0.48 0.54 0.35 0.37 0.17 31.91 0.19 36.05 -0.00 -0.44 -0.02 -3.70 1976 0.55 0.49 0.51 0.45 0.38 0.41 0.04 9.34 0.06 12.65 0.01 3.24 -0.03 -6.56 1977 0.47 0.47 0.55 0.35 0.35 0.42 -0.07 -18.58 0.00 0.00 0.01 2.50 -0.07 -21.08 1978 0.45 0.42 0.49 0.34 0.29 0.34 -0.00 -1.10 0.04 10.68 0.02 4.80 -0.06 -16.58 1979 0.49 0.40 0.37 0.38 0.27 0.25 0.13 34.30 0.10 25.71 0.01 3.71 0.02 4.88 1980 0.53 0.37 0.42 0.42 0.23 0.28 0.14 33.93 0.16 37.61 0.02 5.98 -0.04 -9.66 1981 0.50 0.40 0.43 0.38 0.25 0.29 0.09 24.20 0.10 27.69 0.02 6.25 -0.04 -9.74 1982 0.55 0.51 0.58 0.41 0.35 0.42 -0.02 -4.27 0.04 10.60 0.01 2.98 -0.07 -17.85 1983 0.54 0.52 0.62 0.38 0.35 0.42 -0.04 -10.42 0.02 6.26 0.01 3.00 -0.08 -19.67 1984 0.54 0.47 0.54 0.36 0.29 0.35 0.01 3.48 0.07 19.40 -0.00 -0.65 -0.06 -15.27 Table 1.2 cont. CORN (reat prices, 1963 escudos) ................................................................................................................... PRODUCT PRICE INPUT PRICE EXCHANGE RATE PRICE EFFECT EFFECT EFFECT YEAR P Pu PW* VA VA1 VA* TOTAL % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % ................................................................................................................... 1960 2.38 1.71 1.49 1.33 0.67 0.47 0.86 64.68 0.67 49.99 -0.01 -0.39 0.20 15.08 1961 2.11 1.91 1.71 1.10 0.90 0.75 0.35 31.78 0.20 18.52 0.00 0.08 0.15 13.18 1962 2.18 1.94 1.79 1.21 0.96 0.83 0.38 31.03 0.24 20.23 0.01 0.43 0.13 10.37 1963 2.15 1.80 1.81 1.18 0.79 0.80 0.37 31.91 0.35 29.77 0.04 3.10 -0.01 -0.96 .1964 2.10 1.80 1.60 1.13 0.80 0.62 0.51 45.12 0.30 26.19 0.04 3.19 0.18 15.75 1965 2.53 1.87 1.68 1.58 0.89 0.73 0.85 53.81 0.65 41.39 0.03 2.21 0.16 10.20 1966 2.30 1.84 1.70 1.37 0.87 0.75 0.62 45.46 0.46 33.80 0.03 2.45 0.13 9.21 1967 2.17 1.75 1.55 1.30 0.85 0.67 0.64 48.89 0.42 32.16 0.03 2.51 0.19 14.22 1968 2.16 1.73 1.73 1.29 0.80 0.79 0.50 38.57 0.43 33.27 0.06 4.61 0.01 0.69 1969 2.01 1.60 1.73 1.20 0.74 0.82 0.38 31.83 0.40 33.84 0.06 4.69 -0.08 -6.70 1970 1.89 1.76 1.80 1.10 0.94 0.96 0.14 12.96 0.13 11.73 0.03 3.06 -0.02 -1.83 1971 2.15 1.60 1.66 1.42 0.83 0.86 0.56 39.23 0.54 38.33 0.04 3.11 -0.03 -2.21 1972 1.96 1.32 1.38 1.29 0.61 0.63 0.66 50.97 0.64 50.12 0.03 2.59 -0.02 -1.75 1973 1.76 1.76 1.87 1.12 1.09 1.15 -0.03 -2.65 0.00 0.00 0.03 3.12 -0.06 -5.77 1974 2.11 2.71 2.71 1.48 2.00 2.06 -0.58 -39.24 -0.60 -40.79 0.08 5.52 -0.06 -3.98 1975 2.53 1.94 1.96 1.74 1.16 1.23 0.51 29.37 0.58 33.54 -0.00 -0.22 -0.07 -3.95 1976 2.16 1.65 1.69 1.58 0.93 1.00 0.58 36.48 0.51 32.47 0.14 8.90 -0.08 -4.89 1977 2.02 1.43 1.66 1.39 0.71 0.90 0.49 35.35 0.59 42.55 0.09 6.50 -0.19 -13.70 1978 1.88 1.37 1.59 1.28 0.61 0.77 0.51 39.62 0.51 39.94 0.16 12.15 -0.16 -12.47 1979 1.84 1.50 1.40 1.19 0.71 0.65 0.54 45.38 0.34 28.69 0.14 11.50 0.06 5.19 1980 1.72 1.42 1.61 1.11 0.57 0.70 0.40 36.52 0.30 26.89 0.23 21.10 -0.13 -11.47 1981 1.92 1.66 1.79 1.22 0.74 0.86 0.36 29.27 0.26 21.22 0.22 18.28 -0.13 -10.23 1982 1.85 1.33 1.52 1.02 0.38 0.52 0.50 48.92 0.52 50.97 0.12 11.94 -0.14 -13.99 1983 2.36 1.68 1.98 1.43 0.62 0.82 0.61 42.43 0.69 48.10 0.12 8.43 -0.20 -14.10 1984 2.57 1.88 2.18 1.55 0.87 1.06 0.49 31.62 0.69 44.30 -0.00 -0.17 -0.19 -12.52 Table 1.2 cont. UNEAT (1980 reat prices) ........................................................................................................................... PRODUCT PRICE INPUT PRICE EXCHANGE RATE PRICE EFFECT EFFECT EFFECT YEAR P PU PU* VA VA VA* TOTAL % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % ESC/KG 1 ...... ......t..........................................................................................................................- 1960 3.14 2.13 1.84 1.35 0.34 0.07 1.28 94.88 1.02 75.15 -0.00 -0.34 0.27 20.07 1961 3.03 2.07 1.85 1.30 0.34 0.14 1.17 89.44 0.96 73.58 0.01 0.64 0.20 15.22 1962 3.03 2.11 1.94 1.36 0.43 0.27 1.09 79.94 0.92 67.48 0.02 1.27 0.15 11.19 1963 3.02 2.00 2.01 1.35 0.25 0.26 1.09 80.95 1.02 75.43 0.08 6.25 -0.01 -0.72 1964 2.99 2.14 1.89 1.34 0.40 0.18 1.16 86.74 0.85 63.60 0.08 6.25 0.23 16.90 1965 3.11 1.79 1.60 1.49 0.09 -0.09 1.58 105.85 1.33 88.84 0.08 5.43 0.17 11.57 1966 3.02 1.89 1.74 1.42 0.21 0.08 1.34 94.58 1.13 79.44 0.08 5.49 0.14 9.65 1967 2.91 1.90 1.68 1.43 0.34 0.14 1.29 90.11 1.01 70.63 0.08 5.29 0.20 14.18 1968 2.86 1.68 1.68 1.38 0.07 0.07 1.31 94.93 1.17 85.17 0.13 9.67 0.00 0.10 1969 2.69 1.45 1.56 1.31 -0.07 0.03 1.27 97.43 1.25 95.58 0.13 9.63 -0.10 *7.78 1970 2.63 1.68 1.72 1.28 0.25 0.28 0.99 77.91 0.95 74.53 0.07 5.76 -0.03 -2.38 1971 2.75 1.44 1.49 1.49 0.09 0.13 1.36 91.32 1.31 88.03 0.09 6.19 -0.04 -2.90 1972 2.52 1.56 1.63 1.34 0.32 0.36 0.98 73.00 0.96 71.17 0.07 5.16 -0.04 -3.34 1973 2.38 2.67 2.85 1.28 1.50 1.61 -0.33 -25.41 -0.29 -22.53 0.07 5.46 -0.11 -8.35 1974 2.31 3.10 3.10 1.22 1.84 1.89 -0.67 -54.58 -0.79 -64.46 0.17 14.26 -0.05 *4.39 1975 2.33 2.54 2.57 1.00 1.22 1.29 -0.29 -29.26 -0.21 -21.19 -0.00 -0.33 -0.08 *7.74 1976 2.00 1.92 1.97 0.96 0.67 0.74 0.22 22.88 6.07 7.57 0.22 22.50 -0.07 -7.20 1977 1.92 1.61 1.87 0.78 0.33 0.53 0.25 31.94 0.31 40.31 0.13 16.75 -0.20 -25.12 1978 1.97 1.60 1.86 0.86 0.28 0.47 0.39 45.40 0.38 43.89 0.20 23.17 -0.19 -21.65 1979 2.48 1.82 1.70 1.27 0.44 0.36 0.91 71.58 0.66 51.62 0.17 13.69 0.08 6.27 1980 2.29 1.79 2.03 1.13 0.27 0.42 0.72 63.20 0.50 43.96 0.37 32.65 -0.15 -13.41 1981 2.20 1.98 2.14 0.90 0.33 0.45 0.45 49.89 0.23 25.21 0.35 38.35 -0.12 -13.68 1982 2.20 1.68 1.92 0.63 -0.05 0.11 0.52 82.91 0.52 83.04 0.15 24.28 -0.15 -24.41 1983 2.37 1.80 2.13 0.68 -0.13 0.07 0.62 90.38 0.57 83.78 0.24 35.20 -0.19 -28.60 1984 2.76 1.91 2.22 0.91 0.07 0.27 0.65 70.87 0.84 92.78 -0.00 -0.14 -0.20 -21.78 Table 1.2 cont. BEEF (real prices, 1963 escudos) PRODUCT PRICE INPUT PRICE EXCHANGE RATE PRICE EFFECT EFFECT EFFECT YEAR P Pu PW* VA VAI VA* TOTAL % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % ESC/KG % 1960 21.56 15.88 14.06 -1.02 -6.02 -9.44 8.42 -827.95 5.68 -558.23 -0.68 66.69 3.42 -336.41 1961 20.88 14.25 12.99 -1.31 -7.82 -10.22 8.90 -677.24 6.63 -504.29 -0.12 9.40 2.40 -182.35 1962 20.87 14.05 13.11 -2.03 -8.75 -11.25 9.21 -453.22 6.81 -335.12 -0.10 4.89 2.50 -122.99 1963 22.19 13.96 14.02 -1.31 -9.95 -11.70 10.39 -790.15 8.23 -625.61 0.41 -31.08 1.75 -133.46 1964 24.23 19.70 17.65 -0.73 -5.66 -9.16 8.42 -1147.90 4.52 -616.21 0.40 -55.00 3.50 -476.68 1965 23.29 19.25 17.47 -1.75 -5.78 -8.99 7.23 -412.17 4.04 -230.09 -0.01 0.59 3.20 -182.67 1966 25.56 18.66 17.35 1.17 -5.90 -8.81 9.98 850.24 6.90 588.03 0.17 14.55 2.91 247.65 1967 26.48 16.74 15.05 3.29 -6.63 -9.96 13.25 402.73 9.74 295.94 0.19 5.63 3.33 101.17 1 1968 26.01 14.50 14.50 2.61 -9.64 -11.50 14.11 541.11 11.51 441.62 0.73 28.11 1.86 71.39 w 1969 24.90 14.40 15.41 2.82 -8.36 -9.54 12.36 438.51 10.50 372.45 0.69 24.32 1.18 41.74 4 1970 25.43 17.34 17.69 3.95 -4.53 -5.93 9.89 250.14 8.10 204.81 0.38 9.69 1.41 35.64 I 1971 28.44 19.86 20.51 7.75 -0.47 -1.71 9.46 122.04 8.58 110.68 -0.35 -4.58 1.24 15.94 1972 28.03 19.44 20.24 8.92 1.14 -0.19 9.11 102.16 8.59 96.32 -0.81 -9.13 1.33 14.96 1973 35.97 21.03 22.29 17.53 1.93 1.25 16.28 92.85 14.94 85.20 0.67 3.83 0.67 3.83 1974 33.58 21.74 21.73 16.16 1.15 0.33 15.83 97.96 11.84 73.27 3.17 19.61 0.82 5.08 1975 33.32 14.84 14.98 12.51 -6.47 -7.30 19.81 158.34 18.48 147.71 0.50 3.97 0.83 6.66 1976 34.39 13.46 13.74 17.31 -5.83 -6.39 23.69 136.90 20.93 120.92 2.21 12.78 0.55 3.19 1977 35.95 13.58 15.48 19.24 -4.43 -4.01 23.25 120.86 22.38 116.31 1.29 6.72 -0.42 -2.18 1978 33.99 13.97 15.99 16.68 -4.50 -4.46 21.14 126.74 20.02 120.01 1.16 6.96 -0.04 -0.23 1979 40.20 18.75 17.67 21.45 -1.31 -3.45 24.90 116.09 21.44 99.97 1.32 6.15 2.14 9.96 1980 38.71 19.53 21.96 21.61 -1.22 -1.22 22.83 105.63 19.18 88.76 3.65 16.88 -0.00 -0.01 1981 32.40 19.22 20.69 13.05 -3.69 -3.69 16.74 128.24 13.19 101.03 3.56 27.26 -0.01 -0.05 1982 29.42 19.92 22.55 7.93 -2.45 -1.61 9.54 120.26 9.50 119.75 0.88 11.14 -0.84 -10.64 1983 35.87 19.67 22.94 9.25 -9.23 -9.23 18.48 199.81 16.20 175.13 2.28 24.66 0.00 0.02 1984 34.42 23.88 27.40 6.37 -3.35 -3.26 9.63 151.15 10.55 165.56 -0.82 -12.95 -0.09 -1.45 Table 1.2 cont. SHEEP (reaL prices, 1963 escudos) ....................................................................................................................... ....... PRODUCT PRICE INPUT PRICE EXCHANGE RATE PRICE EFFECT EFFECT EFFECT YEAR P PU PV* VA VA1 VA* TOTAL % ESC/KG X ESC/KG % ESC/KG % ............................................................................................................................... 1960 42.55 39.77 41.13 2.79 0.61 -1.09 3.88 139.04 2.78 99.70 -0.60 -21.46 1.70 60.80 1961 41.69 36.51 37.79 3.01 -2.26 -2.54 5.55 184.45 5.18 172.28 0.09 2.92 0.28 9.25 1962 40.33 36.38 37.24 1.37 -2.83 -5.06 6.43 468.86 3.95 287.96 0.26 18.70 2.22 162.20 1963 49.65 42.92 42.85 10.23 1.70 -2.12 12.35 120.71 6.73 65.74 1.81 17.66 3.82 37.31 1964 62.38 54.11 56.14 21.92 11.87 11.32 10.60 48.35 8.26 37.70 1.79 8.17 0.54 2.49 1965 55.04 49.11 50.60 14.62 7.30 6.09 8.53 58.34 5.93 40.56 1.39 9.49 1.21 8.29 1966 60.55 49.25 50.88 20.74 7.95 6.28 14.45 69.71 11.30 54.50 1.48 7.16 1.67 8.05 1967 59.36 46.76 49.29 21.62 7.58 6.43 15.19 70.26 12.59 58.25 1.45 6.70 1.15 5.31 1968 55.57 42.60 42.61 18.03 2.16 -2.02 20.05 111.21 12.97 71.94 2.90 16.07 4.18 23.20 1969 65.26 48.23 46.07 29.66 9.90 2.24 27.41 92.43 17.03 57.43 2.72 9.18 7.66 25.82 1970 62.72 47.92 47.37 28.09 11.75 7.14 20.95 74.58 14.80 52.67 1.55 5.52 4.61 16.40 1971 79.57 59.41 58.28 46.26 24.91 19.25 27.01 58.38 20.17 43.59 1.19 2.56 5.65 12.22 1972 83.06 63.50 62.20 51.89 31.92 24.96 26.93 51.89 19.56 37.71 0.40 0.77 6.96 13.41 1973 96.73 73.27 70.92 65.85 40.72 33.28 32.57 49.46 23.46 35.63 1.67 2.53 7.44 11.30 1974 97.18 76.84 76.86 68.10 42.04 41.54 26.56 39.00 20.34 29.87 5.72 8.40 0.50 0.73 1975 102.59 77.63 77.21 66.61 41.21 40.96 25.66 38.52 24.96 37.46 0.45 0.68 0.25 0.37 1976 98.13 72.29 71.82 68.76 38.33 38.37 30.39 44.20 25.84 37.58 4.60 6.68 -0.04 -0.06 1977 92.46 70.42 67.79 61.84 37.18 31.60 30.24 48.90 22.04 35.64 2.62 4.24 5.58 9.02 1978 80.35 62.59 60.44 49.93 29.34 22.24 27.69 55.45 17.76 35.56 2.83 5.67 7.10 14.22 1979 90.83 70.47 71.40 57.87 34.75 34.40 23.47 40.56 20.36 35.18 2.76 4.78 0.35 0.60 1980 83.51 70.65 69.67 52.18 31.40 24.70 27.48 52.66 12.86 24.64 7.93 15.19 6.70 12.84 1981 60.16 57.48 57.56 25.01 14.89 12.40 12.62 50.43 2.68 10.73 7.44 29.74 2.49 9.97 1982 62.37 57.40 57.23 21.81 14.73 11.11 10.70 49.06 4.97 22.77 2.11 9.68 3.62 16.61 1983 61.10 52.60 51.67 15.55 1.33 -6.28 21.83 140.43 8.50 54.66 5.72 36.80 7.61 48.96 1984 59.81 56.73 56.26 11.00 8.68 1.20 9.80 89.05 3.07 27.91 -0.74 -6.77 7.47 67.91 DISTRIBUTORS OF WORLD BANK PUBLICATIONS ARGENTINA GERMANY. 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