World Bank Policy Research |7 °3 May-July 1991 Volume 2 Number 3 The phasing and politics of Eastern Europe's reforms T ransforming an economic force from the indifferent perfor- - and that it should be followed Tsystem differs greatly from mance of the Central and Eastern quickly (or concurrently) with price reforming policy in an established European countries in their earlier and trade reform (including the economic system. And the se- phases of partial reform. convertibility of the current ac- quencing of individual reforms in a Few disagree with the premise count) to enhance competition and broad system transformation is that macroeconomic stabilization is promote foreign investment (see the open to considerable debate (see a prerequisite for structural reforms chart on phasing). Tax reform and box). Most analysts now agree that, The debate on phasing although country-specific factors Should price reform come before or public support. Restructuring should will influence the pattern of re- after enterprise reform? thus precede privatization, and firms forms, some components must Before: Enterprise reform and should not be given away hastily. precede others or occur in tandem privatization will not succeed if the with them. It has also become market cannot judge efficiency and Should trade liberalization come increasingly clear that the compo- value because prices do not reflect early and fast or later and slower? nents are tightly interlinked - and true costs. Budgets cannot be Early: It supports price reform by that clearly articulating a long-term "hardened" before introducing importing the world price structure strategy and starting in many market prices. and heightens competitive forces. policy areas is important from the After: Freeing prices in the Later: It shocks the economy, in the beginning. A stylized phasing of presence of monopolies will lead to right directions but with excessive reforms shows that reforms need to excessive prices and profits, under- costs, and is risky until the economy is be carried out simultaneously on cutting the political consensus for stabilized. many fronts (see chart on page 3). reform. Domestic competition policy Because some reforms take longer should be in place before price Must full-scale financial sector than others, tensions are inevitable. liberalization. reform go hand-in-hand with enter- Some reforms are appropriate only prise reform, or can it come earlier? late in the process, when market Should large-scale privatization be Hand-in-hand: Competitive financial forces are developed well enough "quick and dirty" or slower and markets require clean loan portfolios, to replace administrative controls. more careful? and enterprise reform and bank In any case, although early reforms Quick: Rapid privatization is of portfolio restructuring are best may yield some immediate benefits utmost importance. It raises effi- accomplished simultaneously. (such as an increase in the availabil- ciency, speeds restructuring, estab- Cleaning up loan portfolios is futile ity of goods), rapid and sustainable lishes a constituency for further without enterprise reform. economic growth should not be reforms, and weakens the traditional Earlier: Only independent financial power centers opposing reform. institutions and liberalized financial implemented on a significant scale. Slow: Sales revenues are needed by markets can play the critical role of implementeds onaisignificane sveale. the government, and preserving allocating capital as enterprises are yeand.Al thiisliely tposita nse gal fairness in the process is vital for restructured. years. All these propositions gain .______________________________________________________Cotetsonpae ____ ~~~~- F FIL E C iiy Contents on page 2 u Martin Ravallion on reaching the - rural poor through public employment: arguments, eviden( The phasing and politics of Books and lessons from South Asia Eastern Europe's reforms World Development Report 1991: John Wakeman-Linn on the mark, The Challenge of Development for developing: country debt and t World Development Indicators nature and importance of its shortcomings New Research World Tables 1991 Enterprise behavior and competitiveness Price Prospects for Major Primary Commodities, 1990-2005 Discussion, Technical, and Relat Credit programs for the poor: Papers. household and intrahousehold impacts and program sustainability flj Equipment prices and trade Journals policies for developing country Working Papers manufacturing industries Volume 6, Number 2 issue of the World Bank Research Observer Assessing the Mexico-United States Emmanuel Jimenez, Marlaine free trade agreement Emne iee,Mran Lockheed, and Vicente Paqueo on the relative efficiency of private Calendar Do national policies affect long-run and public schools in developing growth? countries Jack Mintz and Jesuis Seade on cash The international economic. t environment and productivity flow- or income: the choice of base growth in industrial and for company taxation developing countries Anil Markandya and David Pearce on development, the environment, Housing indicators for and the social rate of discount policymaking: an extensive international survey Vinod Thomas and John Nash on trade policy reform: recent evidence from theory and practice License prices and rent sharing in e the Multi-Fibre Arrangement The World Bank Policy Research Bulletin is published five times a year by the Research Advisory Staff. Subscriptions to tl Bulletin are complimentary and may be ordered by contacting Evelyn Alfaro at the Bank's main address, room S10-062. 77 Bulletin's purpose is to inform the development community of the Bank's policy and research output. It includes descriptior of Bankpublications, research summaries, and updates'ofevents inandoutside the Bank. The views and i nterpretations in articL published are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views and policies of the World Bank or of its Executi, Directors or the countries they represent. The Bulletin is not copyrighted, and it may be reproduced with the appropriate sour attribution. Fof more information, contact Evelyn Alfaro, the production manager. Alison Strong is the editor. 2 Continued from page 1 Phasing reforms over 10 years a system of unemployment insur- The chart shows that reforms need to be simultaneous on many fronts ance should also follow quickly. and suggests a stylized phasing over the long term Tax reform is needed to help maintain government revenues Intense Continuing while eliminating the ad hoc Macro stabilization redistribution of profits that de- Price and market reform stroys enterprise incentives. Unem- Goods and services ployment insurance (and more Most goods Some necessities (including housing) general reform of the social safety Price reform net) offsets the social and political Remove QRs Adjust tariffs to moderate levels pressure to slow down the reform Trade reform process and contributes to its Privatization, demonopolization political sustainability. Measures to Distribution - encourage small private businesses and small-scale privatization can Deregulate hiring Liberalization and firing of wage bargaining and should proceed rapidly. The Labor market reason? A growing small-scale Preparation Implementation sector is needed to help free up the Autonomous banking P r Imlmntt: distribution system, offset the system impact on employment of restruc- turing the larger state firms, and Preparation Implementation strengthen domestic competition. Other financial markets Responsibility for corporate gover- nance should be clarified and Restructuring and strengthened as soon as possible. privatization Restructuring and privatizing Small-scale privatization medium-sized and larger firms can and private sector begin early in the process but will Revise take time, particularly for less viable firms. The same holds true Foreign investment - for legal, institutional, and regula- Large-scale: Corporate governance tory reforms. Institutional and regulatory reform of the banking Restructuring and From evaluation to implementation system start early, but full financial privatization liberalization requires the restruc- turing of bank portfolios, and that Redefining the role of state typically accompanies enterprise Intensive (tax reform, basic of wage ., , ,property, and commercial law) Continuing (other) reform. Similarly, the pace oL warfe liberalization is set by that of enter- prise reform, needed to insure ade- Tax adrunistration, budgeting, quate countervailing forces in the Institutional reform wage-setting process. And full con- EmrgncuIsttuioalzaio vertibility of the capital account can come later in the reform process. Unemployment insurance Despite the agreement along Intensive Continuing broad lines on the sequencing of Other social areas _ _ reforms, there is considerable Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 debate on this pattern of phasing (box). No exact pattern is preor- dained. Country-specific factors In this regard, there is a tension in through difficult reforms and the clearly will influence the exact Eastern Europe between the strong broad participation andI compro- course taken. central leadership ireeded to push mise needed to ensure widespread 3 support for the program. Central prospect of joining it, are probably 1992 before the recovery begins ir executive authority, discredited by important in setting standards for 1993. Growth in per capita outpu past experience, has yet to be reform. is expected to improve to 34 replaced by a new model of strong The course of reform will not percent in the second half of the government with a legitimate role only depend on political develop- decade, as the countries recover in supporting a market system. In ments - it will probably influence from the disruptions of their fact, the pendulum is swinging in those developments. A crucial current reform processes and as the opposite direction in several variable in all this may be the speed their economic efficiency and countries - toward greater decen- of reform. The political pressures absorptive capacity rise with tralization and autonomy for that arise in a "go slow" approach restructuring. Output per capita i provincial and local governments. argue for as rapid a reform as not projected to attain its 1989 lev This is likely to complicate reform possible. Under "shock therapy," until late in the decade. But that efforts in the short run. like that in Poland, a large set of (market-dete.rmined) output shou Regional disputes over power- reforms is launched before strong be achieved with greater efficienc sharing further threaten cohesion, opposition can coalesce (resistance and associated with a higher level compromise legitimacy, and to reform by the old guard of of social welfare than the output c impede economic reform. In the managers and bureaucrats is often 1989. Despite unavoidable short- Czech and Slovak Federal Republic, cited as an argument for rapid term costs, reforms set the stage f( the division of authority between enterprise reform). sustainable growth in the mediun the federation and the two repub- Rapid adjustment may cause and long run. Without reform, lics over policymaking and budget- political instability if there is no these economies would continue I ary control is still unclear. The quick and demonstrable payoff. stagnate into the foreseeable futui problem is magnified in Yugoslavia But a slower approach also has - and still bear the adjustment and the Soviet Union, where political risks. Failure to pursue costs stemming from the trade reaching consensus on the political reforms vigorously will cost much, shock. relations and distribution of power economically and politically. The Two important general points between the center and the repub- reforms may be easier to undertake, emerge from these projections. lics is likely to be a prerequisite for the worse the prereform situation. First, even under fairly favorable large-scale reforms and macroeco- Thus, short-run costs would be assumptions on external factors a] nomic stability. The regional borne more readily in Poland than domestic reforms, the period of disputes do not reflect lack of in, say, the Czech and Slovak catch-up toward market economi( consensus on economic policy as Republic. But it is still too early to with levels of income comparable much as long-simmering ethnic do more than speculate on these those of the industrial countries u tensions unleashed with political issues. almost certainly be measured in liberalization. The growth prospects for the decades rather than years. Added to the difficulty of sustain- Central and Eastern European Second, system reforms are ing political and economic reform is countries depend on the consis- unlikely to proceed smoothly, a harsh international economy. tency with which they pursue their especially considering their com- Temporarily higher world oil reform programs, the impact of plexity and highly political naturE prices, economic problems in the outside developments, and the Setbacks can be expected and Soviet Union, the transformation of response of the industrial countries should not be prematurely inter- the CMEA trading system, and the in providing technical assistance, preted as failure of the entire disruption of trade with Iraq (a finance, and an open trading reform process. It will be importa significant trading partner, espe- environment. Recovery and in the years ahead to maintain cially for the Czech and Slovak growth are expected to be quite political will, patience, and a long Federal Republic and for Bulgaria) slow in the near term because of the term perspective. - all these place extra strain on fundamental systemic and institu- economies already burdened with tional changes needed. Per capita Drawn from The Transformation of the short-term costs of reform. The output for the six Central and Economies in Central and Eastern public will find it difficult to Eastern European countries over Europe: Issues, Progress, and Pros- separate the impact of reform from 1990-2000, following the sharp drop pects, by Alan H. Gelb and Cheryl W. that of the external shocks. Proxim- in 1990, is projected to decline Gray, Policy and Research Series 17, ity to Western Europe, and the further in 1991 and stay level in World Bank, July 1991. 4 New Research - This research project will explore (the test of which must follow the such micro and macro links along evaporation of the temporary The research projects described here two lines. First, what has been the factors postponing adjustment), this have been approved by the Research enterprise-level response to macro- will suggest that "getting the prices Committee and are funded by the economic reform? For example, has right" is only a necessary and not a Bank's Central Research Budget tight monetary policy been diluted sufficient condition for adjustment. (RSB). Bank units contribute their by interfirm credit? Has the This raises a host of issues relating staff time to these projects, and RSB appreciating real exchange rate led to economic coordination policies. funding complements this by providing to specific restructuring efforts at Getting the prices right is usually for expenses such as consultants, data the enterprise level, and have equated with a stable exchange rate collection, and travel. For infornation different sectors responded differ- and trade liberalization. An on funding to prepare research propos- ently? How has indexation affected important dimension that is miss- als approved since May, see page 9. wage-setting? Second, what are the ing is the incentive structure within For information about research prospects for enterprise perfor- the firm, not just clarification of the projects listed here, contact the re- mance, and thus export earnings ownership/control structure, but searchers at the Bank's main address. and tax revenues? Were the high profit-linked pay for managers. profits toward the end of 1989 and Thus, the prices may have to be in 1990 transitory or permanent - right within the firm to elicit the Research Starts that is, were they genuine gains or desired response. were they due to temporary fac- RSB support: $20,000 tors? This component captures the Staff weeks: 31 Enterprise Behavior and tangible feedback from enterprise Competitiveness response to macroeconomic vari- C P B;rian Pinto ables. The research will be con- CreditProgr arms forr thhe5Peoor: | Resident Mission in Poland abe.Tersac ilb o-Household and Intrahousehold Ref. no. 676-58 ducted through a survey of the Impacts and Program largest enterprises, mostly public Sustainability enterprises, in the main manufac- Shahidur Khandker turing sectors. Population and Human Resources Department, Women in Development The priority in Poland's economic The study will assess the immedi- Division transformation program, which ate macroeconomic implications of Ref. no. 676-59 began in January 1990, has been to the findings. For example, if stabilize the economy and reduce profitability rates are likely to inflation to less than 1 percent a decline or if export performance month by May 1991. Another was facilitated by temporary For the rural poor in many develop- important goal has been to stimu- factors, this would have implica- ing countries lack of capital may be late public enterprise reform by tions for fiscal revenues and export the only obstacle to starting income- subjecting the sector to import earnings beyond the possible effects earning activities - and thus to competition through a fixed ex- on the labor market. break out of the vicious circle of low change rate combined with low If the surprisingly good perfor- capital, low productivity, low tariffs. The two goals are interde- mance of public enterprises in 1990 income, and low savings. Access to pendent. Enterprise taxes account is found to stem from temporary affordable credit for productive for 70 percent of budgetary rev- factors, which impeded true activities can remove this obstacle enues. A serious disruption of the liberalization, this might illuminate and lead, if the credit effects are sector - a potential cost of adjust- the debate on the sequencing of sustainable, to improvements in ment - could therefore create a liberalization and stabilization, income, welfare, and assets. fiscal imbalance, affecting not only especially if the disruption of the Although many governments in stabilization but income and sector is large and costly. This developing countries have pro- employment throughout the would also raise questions about moted rural credit institutions, there economy. Likewise, if inflation is "big-bang" liberalization policies are few good studies of their effects not brought under control, the for other emerging post-communist and sustainability. This project will relative price signals essential for economies. If the public sector is analyze how group-based credit restructuring are likely to be not showing a capacity to respond programs work and whether they obscured. to the new economic environment are sustainable in imperfect credit 5 markets by examining their cost programs elsewhere, including the and the elimination of competiton structures and estimating their measurement of the effects on unable to obtain insurance. effects on households and on households and the distribution of The study wvill conduct surveys members of households. It will pay the effects by gender. machinery exporters and other particular attention to the distribu- RSB support: $215,000 relevant firms and institutions in tion of the effects by gender. Staff weeks: 79 Germany and Switzerland; analyz Bangladesh, because it has a data on Indonesia's machinery number of different kinds of credit imports; analyze Bank project datz programs - including the well- Equipment Prices and Trade and conduct al field survey in Braz known Grameen Bank - has been Policies for Developing Country where the "law of similars" and chosen as the project's focus. Manufacturing Industries creditworthiness are most promi- Garry Pursell The research has three main Country Economics Department, nent. The principal focus of the objectives. First, it will identify the Trade Policy Division I research will be on the machinery effects of credit programs on the * Ref. no. 67661 and equipment used by the textile income, wealth, and asset accumu- and garment industries. lation - and thus, poverty reduc- RSB support: $56,000 tion - of households and on the . .. Staff weeks: 15 Export unit values of certain kinds employment, education, health, and of machinery exported from such nutrition of individuals. Determin- advanced industrial nations as Ger- ing the results will help show many and Japan to India, China, Assessing the Mexico-United whether a credit program produces and Brazil are substantially higher States Free lrade Agreement the effects desired for households than the unit values of similar ma- Sweder van Wijnbergen Latin America and the Caribbean - that is, effects that help to reduce chinery exported to developed Regional Office, Country Departmer poverty and to increase the human countries and to more successful II, Country Operations Division 1 capital of the rural poor. export-oriented developing econo- Ref. no. 676-65 Second, the research will examine mies such as Hong Kong, Korea, theprcipa,tion ofsea womlenaminte and Taiwan, China. This pilot study the participation of women in the wicoltanaayzreabeda credit programs and the effects of wl collhe and analye eplial fataons The free trade agreement (FIA) th; their participation on such house- and qualities in order to test the Canada, Mexico, and the United hold and intrahousehold outcomes validity of the several possible hy- States have agreed to negotiate is as decisionmaking, resource potheses explaining this difference expected to go beyond reducing oI allocation, and productivity. The and determine whether the subject removing trade barriers for agricul research will try to determine merits more extensive research. tural and manufactured products, whether such effects vary according The main reasons for the differ- liberalizing such areas as direct to the gender of the participant and ences in export unit values seem to foreign investrnent and key servic( whether a credit program designed stem from nontariff interventions - transport, communications, for women increases the welfare of to promote import substitution in insurance, and banking. For Mexic the family - and if so, how. machinery or machinery compo- the agreement can be expected Third, the research will analyze nent manufacturing. These effectively to cement the major the financial and economic effi- . barriers increase the costs and structural reforms that it has undei ciency of the credit programs and risks of machinery suppliers and taken over the last few years by make comparative evaluations so as may exclude some from competi- increasing the difficulty of policy to estimate the cost structures of the tion, inucreasing the market power reversals. This will send a strong programs and determine whether of those remaining. Rent-seeking signal to potential foreign investor and under what conditions group activity aimed at circumventing making increased direct foreign credit programs are sustainable. "law of similars" import-licensing investment likely. For this and oth The findings of the research will regulations may lead to the import reasons, the FTA will have broad provide both evidence on the of inappropriate (overspecified) implications fo:r Mexico's economy viability of group-based credit machinery. And importing and raises a number of policy issuE schemes in Bank projects and a countries' creditworthiness could This research project will examir generally applicable framework for also play a role, because of the the likely effects of the FTA on analyzing the relative costs and increased insurance costs credit Mexico, focusirig on three question benefits of different kinds of credit risks represent for the exporter with a view toward policy. First, 6 what will trade liberalization in ments with the United States. work enables researchers to con- agriculture mean for the economy RSB support: $249,060 sider which policies affect the long- as a whole? Second, how will Staff weeks: 20 run growth rate, not just the level of opening up the services sector affect income for a one-time change, and both the sector itself and the sectors o P to analyze complex interactions that use its outputs? Third, to what Do National Policies Affect among policies and initial condi- extent can we expect major changes Lng-Rntions. The project will rely on fairly William Easterly tos h rjc ilrl nfil in firms' decisions on location and Country Economics Department, aggregate indicators of national in trade patterns after a free trade Macroeconomic Adjustment and policies - for simplicity and to test agreement in industry? And inowe GrowthDiv6is6on whether aggregate measures of can expect substantial foreign direct R national policies can be used to investment, what are the likely predict growth performance. The implications for Mexico's aggregate project will use the framework to productivity growth and hence for After a decade in which some derive testable predictions of the long-term growth prospects? developing countries showed relation between the national The research will have a two- outstanding growth and others policies and long-run growth and track structure. First, it will look in stagnating growth, many are then use econometric and qualita- detail at six sectors: sugar, maize, attempting to reestablish - or tive techniques to test the accuracy textiles and apparel, motor vehicles establish for the first time - of the predictions and determine and parts, services, and conditions conducive to growth. which policies are most important maquiladoras (border industries that Coming up with appropriate in promoting growth. operate under a special tariff policies requires understanding the The research will also examine regime). The research will examine reasons behind the wide variance in the relation between growth and the potential effects for each sector growth. broader measures of welfare such of its inclusion in the free trade A clear link has been drawn in as social indicators and environ- agreement - such as those on empirical work between economic mental measures. Evidence sug- employment and trade. Second, the policy and economic growth. But gests high correlation between project will conduct an economy- which policies have a strong effect growth and other welfare mea- wide analysis of the effects of the on long-run growth - and which sures; this research will try to FTA that will focus on intersectoral have only a one-time effect on identify factors that could cause linkages and spillovers, using the income? Do policies explain them to diverge. results of the sectoral studies, and successive periods of rapid growth RSB support: $177,694 on policy changes (regulation of and stagnation in the same coun- Staff weeks: 118 foreign investment, for example) try? What are the effects of external that affect the economy as a whole. factors on growth relative to those Te International Economic The results of the research could of national policies? And which Environment and Productivity serve as an important input for policies are most critical for a Growth in Industrial and formulating policy, both on which country seeking to achieve decent Developing Countries sectors the parties should bring into long-run growth? Vikram Nehru the agreement and on the design of This project will examine the Ient, Office of the Director adjustment policy packages, if any relation between growth and fiscal, Ref. no. 676-67 are required, to ease Mexico's monetary, trade, domestic financial, adjustment to the conditions and foreign capital policies. It will created by the agreement. The use an analytical framework based Two recent research products of the results should also be of general on the simple idea that all factors of World Bank, the World Development policy interest, for several reasons: production can be increased Report 1991 and Global Economic this is the first free trade agreement through investment in human or Prospects and the Developing Coun- among developing and developed physical capital. Economic growth tries, have both observed that the countries; the agreement is ex- will be related to policies that affect GDP growth rate of developing pected to cover new areas (services the incentive to invest in such countries as a group has tended to and direct foreign investment); and capital and to policies that affect the move closely with that of industrial other Latin American countries efficiency of the use of capital and countries as a group. This has been may soon establish similar agree- intermediate inputs. The frame- attributed mainly to greater world 7 economic integration. At the same economic prospects and interna- indicators through extensive time, individual developing econo-, tional linkages. surveys in 35-40 major cities in mies and regions have shown wide RSB support: $100,000 separate countries. The surveys variations in growth performance. Staff weeks: 85 will also obtain some 10 social an( This has been ascribed mainly, macroeconomic indicators thoug1 though not solely, to different factor Housing Indicators for to relate to the housing sector. endowments and domestic policies. Policymaking: An Extensive Third, it will attempt to establish There is thus a tension between International Survey key relations among the housing whethr th intenatinal o theStephen Mayo whether the international or the Infrastructure and Urban Develop- indicators and between them and domestic policy environment is ment Department, Urban Develop- the social and economic develop- more important in influencing long- ment Division ment indicators, using cross- term growth. This tension spills Ref. no. 676-68 sectional data from the surveys. over into the Bank's relations with The project should contribute tc its clients. While the Bank empha- the development of operational sizes the role of domestic policies, Housing, although recognized as a tools necessary for measuring developing countries often cite the basic need, is rarely recognized also performance in the housing sectoi influence on growth of global as an important economic sector for understanding how difference variables - real commodity prices, whose performance can make a in sectoral outcomes are influence international real rates of interest, critical difference for the perfor- by socioeconomic conditions and industrial country protectionism. mance of the overall economy. It policies, and for understanding in This project seeks to fill a per- comprises 20-50 percent of repro- turn how the housing sector ceived gap in analysis by examining ducible wealth in most countries, is influences other social and eco- the relative importance of the a major incentive for household nomic outcomes. The project also international and domestic policy saving, and significantly influences seeks to contribute to the develop environments in explaining growth household consumption. ment of new institutional mecha- in developing and industrial Monitoring the performance of nisms for encouraging the use of countries. It will also quantify the the housing sector and making such tools by governments of consequences of changes in interna- informed policy decisions that developing countries and by tional economic variables and in affect the sector are made difficult international donors. groups of variables for the growth by a lack of good data and of RSB support: $330,000 rates of developing countries. conceptual and analytical frame- Staff weeks: 26 The project will first prepare data works. If governments are to make series on labor and capital stock a fundamental shift in their role in Li (both physical and human) for a housing, as called for by the U.N.'s in the Multi-Fibre Arrangement wide range of countries. It will Global Shelter Strategy for the Year Refik Erzan then estimate aggregate production 2000, from attempting to supply International Economics Depart- functions for industrial and devel- housing directly, as most develop- ment, International Trade Division oping countries and disaggregate ing country governments do, Ref. no. 676-69 the sources of output growth into toward supporting the private contributions from production sector's activities in developing inputs and total factor productivity. housing, they will need a better The project will also use cross- understanding of the mechanisms Estimates of tariff equivalents of section, time-series pooled regres- that govern the sector. quotas and welfare calculations oi sion equations to determine the This project, a new component in the costs of Multi-Fibre Arrange- effects of the international economic an ongoing program to develop ment quotas for developing coun- environment and of domestic housing indicators for policy- tries are based on the premise of policies on the long-term growth of making, has three main objectives. perfect competition in both the output and of partial and total First, it seeks to develop conceptual, product and license markets. It is factor productivity. The research, analytical, and institutional frame- also assumed that the exporting to be carried out for analytically works for managing the housing countries subject to the MFA quot meaningful groups of countries, sector. Second, it will create a basic receive the sca:rcity rents. But if will produce results useful in set of 20-30 key housing indicators there is market power on the analyzing both future global and obtain current estimates for the buyers' side in the product marke 8 and concentration in the license MFA quotas over a year and Publications markets, importing countries might develop a model on the option retain part of the rents. Thus, if value component of the license To order World Bank putblicationis in rent sharing does occur, the cost of price to test whether there is price- the United States, send prepaid orders, the MFA quotas to exporting fixing - market power - in the plus $3.50 for shipping and handling, developing countries might be license market. The results of this to World Banik Publicationis, P.O. Box greater than the acknowledged model will contribute to the analy- 7247-8619, Philadelphia, PA 19170- costs of reduced export volumes. sis of rent sharing. World Bank publications are A pilot study analyzed U.S. RSB support: $86,494 available through a network of distribe - apparel imports from Hong Kong Staff weeks: 16 tors outside the United States. For the to test whether data conformed to name and address of the distributor in all the relevant predictions of the your country, write to the World Bank competitive model. The test Research Proposals Publications Sales Unit, Department compared theliensericenunder Preparation PR, 1818 H Street, NW, Washlintgtoni, compared the license price mnclu- DC 20433. sive Hong Kong price, adjusted for tariffs~~~ an.rnpr ot,wt h Financial Linkage Development tariffs and transport costs, with the under Liberalization in Sub- Books domestic U.S. price. Deviations Saharan Africa between the two prices were William Steel and Mala Hettige World Development Report 1991: assumed to indicate product Industry and Energy Department, The Challenge of Development market power on the buyers' side. Industry Development Division World Development Indicators Ref. no. 676-60 Published for the World Bank by The results produced strong RSB support: $6,325 Oxford University Press evidence that importers retained a . English hardback edition: 344 pages/ substantial share of the MFA quota Import License Auctions in Trade Order Stock #60869/$32.95 rents. Liberalization: An Empirical Study Paperback editions: $16.95 rents. Jaime de Melo and David Tarr English: Order Stock #60868 The purpose of this research Country Economics Department, Trade French: Order Stock #11796 project is to provide a conclusive Policy Division, and Technical Depart- Spanish: Order Stock #11797 answer to the question of whether Afrnca Regional Offidle ETade,and North This fourteenth edition of the World there is rent sharing in the MFA. and Public Sector Division Development Report draws together The methodology and country Ref. no. 676-62 the lessons of 40 vears of develop- coverage of the pilot study will be RSB support: $14,700 ment experience. It shows how enhanced and extended. Data will Labor Market Dynamics during the governments and markets can again be tested against the competi- Transition of a Socialist Economy interact most effectively to promote tive model, but alternative proxies Alan Gelb rapid development that benefits all. for market power will be incorpo- Country Economics Department, While it acknowledges that no Socialist Economies Reform Unit rated to allow a determination of Ref. no. 676-63 single development strategy has yet the sources of the deviations from RSB support: $9,600 proved ideal, WDR 1991 explains the model - whether from imper- the reliable principles that have fections in the product markets or Operations and Maintenance in emerged to guide policymakers. the license markets. Economies Heywood Fleisig WDR 1991 first reviews the world covered will include - besides Latin America and the Caribbean economy, assesses the effect of Hong Kong - Bangladesh, India, Regional Office, Chief Economist's external factors on development, Indonesia, Korea, Mexico, Sri Ref. no. 676-64 and considers alternative scenarios Lanka, and Thailand. The U.S. RSB support: $10,500 - optimistic and pessimistic - for market, the largest for apparel the 1990s. To assess the prospects products, will remain the focus, but for development, the report then other industrial country importers looks at how effective past strate- will be added. Apparel imports gies have been in promoting from nonrestricted countries will growth and how thinking on also be studied, to see whether development is changing. The price differences exist that cannot emphasis in the 1950s and 1960s on be explained by quality differences. capital accumulation is giving way A second part of the research will to a greater recognition of the look at the path of license prices of importance of policies 'that can 9 improve the quality of investments. 1991 contains the World Develop- Journals Optimism about the ability of ment Indicators, with comprehen- governments to direct development sive data on social and economic The articles summarized in this is giving way to a greater faith in development for 124 countries. Journals sectio;n appear in the current markets. issue of the World Bank Research The report identifies four aspects World Tables 1991 Observer. Subscription to the Ob- of strategies for development that Published for the World Bank by Johns server is available without charge to are crucial for success: 655 pages/Order Stock #44252/$34.95 readers with mailing addresses in * Invest in people. Governments This seventh edition of the World countries that aire not members of the must spend more - and more Tables gives economic, demo- OECD but are members of the World efficiently - on human beings. graphic, and social data for 139 Bank. Other subscription requests This requires shifts in spending countries and territories for 1969- should be, direct'ed to the World Bank priorities, better targeting of 89. Like its predecessors, it pro- Publications Sa'les Ulnit, Department expenditures, and in some cases vides historical time series based on PR, 1818 H Street,'NW, Washington greater resource mobilization. the World Bank's ongoing collec- DC 20433. * Improve the climate for enterprise. tion and analysis of data on its Governments need to intervene less member countries. The data, W in pricing, to deregulate restrictions updated annually, focus on national World Bank Research Obse2ver on entry and exit, and to focus accounts, international transactions, July 1991 instead on ensuring adequate and other development indicators.i a infrastructure and institutions. * Open the economy to interna- Price Prospects for Major Primary tional trade and investment. This calls VCo moIt I Summary, Energy, Metals The Relative Efficiency of Private for greatly reducing the restrictions and Minerals/248 pages and Public Schools in Developing on trade and investment. Volume II - Agricultural Products, Countries Fertilizers, Tropical Timber/371 pages Emmanuel Jimenez, Marlaine E. Lockheed * Get macroeconomic policy right. Order Stock #11794/$275.00 for a two- and Vicente Paqueo Macroeconomic policy needs to year subscription Aside from revenue mobilization, ensure low fiscal deficits and low These volumes provide the most one of the arguments for allowing inflation, and market-based incen- up-to-date information on the the private sector to assume a largf tives for saving and investment. market performances and forecasts role in the provision of education i WDR 1991 recognizes that, for all for 44 commodities. The set exam- that it would increase efficiency, aE four, there are ways in which ines prospects for energy, metals, administrators become more governments can be either building minerals, food products, nonfood responsive to the needs of students blocks or stumbling blocks to agricultural products, and fertiliz- and their parents. But what is the development. For countries to ers. For each commodity or group evidence? Based on case studies develop, governments must of commodities, it looks at produc- that compare private and public complement markets. They should tion, consumption, exports, im- secondary education in Colombia,, create institutions that enable the ports, and prices for 1970-89 and the Dominican Republic, the private sector to flourish in produc- gives forecasts for the next five Philippines, Tanzania, and Thai- ing and marketing goods and years, for 2000, and for 2005. land, private school students services. And they should step in The set also analyzes the future generally outperform public schoo] efficiently when markets prove directions for the world economy students on standardized math anc inadequate or fail altogether. and world trade, and the most language tests. This finding holds The report elaborates on these important economic regions and even after holdiing constant for the strategies with a detailed discussion countries involved in the market for fact that, on average, private school of 15 actions that have worked and each commodity. students in these countries come that can be adapted to solve the The information is available as a from more advantaged back- problems of the 1990s. The report two-year subscription that com- grounds than their public school concludes that despite the chal- prises, besides the two volumes, counterparts. In addition, prelimi- lenges that remain, the opportuni- occasional supplements describing nary evidence shows that the unit ties for development are greater recent market performance and a costs of private schools are lower today than at any time in history. set of biannually updated price than those of public schools. As did previous editions, WDR forecasts. Although these results cannot, in 10 themselves, be used as arguments tal concems, such as excessive policy reforms and concludes that for massive privatization, they exploitation of natural resources, although past reforms have had indicate that governments should inadequate investment in conserva- some impact, future programs reconsider policies that restrain tion, and insufficient attention to should emphasize three elements: private sector participation in the irreversible loss of certain reducing the level of protection, education. Further research is environmental resources. maintaining macroeconomic needed to determine whether some The authors conclude that, in stability, and considering the teaching and administrative general, environmental concerns potential conflicts and practices in private schools are are not best addressed by lowering complementarities with other applicable to public schools. the discount rate - an action that policies. might have both benefits and costs Cash Flow or Income? for the environment. A more Reaching the Rural Poor Through The Choice of Base for Company promising course would be to Public Employment: Arguments, Taxation inco. orate a criterion of Evidence, and Lessons from South Jack M. Mintz and Jesas Seade mcorporaty a certan of Asia Cash flow and equity income (or sustainability into certain aspects of Martin Ravallion income) are two alternative bases decisionmaking. How such a With the limited set of policy advocated for taxes on businesses criterion could be made operational instruments typically available in throughout the world. Although in is touched upon but not developed the rural sectors of developing practice most tax systems are in this article. countries, imperfect coverage of the hybrids with elements of both types poor and leakage to the nonpoor of taxes, recent literature has Reform of Trade Policy: must be expected from even the stressed the merits of the cash flow Recent Evidence from Theory and most well-intentioned poverty tax because it is simple in concept Practice alleviation scheme. One way to and it does not distort decisions Vinod Thomas and John Nash reach the poor more effectively is to about capital expenditures and In the 1980s many developing build incentives for self-selection financing. But international issues countries began to recognize that into the scheme. Labor-intensive and administrative complexities - restrictive trade policies can con- rural public works projects have the articularly tax evasion -cpresent strain growth. To facilitate trade potential to reach and protect the paroblems that must be sorted out and integration into the world poor, as well as to create and before a cash flow tax can be economy, many countries have maintain rural infrastructure. The implemented. embarked on reform programs, limited evidence for South Asia often with World Bank support. suggests that few nonpoor persons Development, the Environment, and This survey synthesizes the conclu- want to participate, and that both the Social Rate of Discount sions of the literature on trade direct and indirect transfer and Anil Markandya and David W. Pearce policy reform with those of a recent stabilization benefits to the poor This article examines the role of the study by the World Bank analyzing can be sizable. These benefits can, discount rate in making decisions reforms in developing countries, however, be rapidly dissipated by a that will have significant implica- particularly those supported by badly conceived and executed tions for the environment. The adjustment lending programs. Its projects authors begin by providing a objective is to shed light on some of p t d o how are selected, designed, and financed rationale for discounting in general the questions about these programs are crucial to success in both the and by describing the main factors to guide policymakers in the future. short and the long run. that determine the discount rate. The article reviews conditions in These factors - the private and these countries before trade policy The Market for Developing Country social rates of time preference, the reforms were implemented and Debt: The Nature and Importance opportunity cost of capital, risk and examines how much reform of Its Shortcomings uncertainty, and the interests of actually took place. It also exam- John Wakeman-Linn future generations - all have an ines the effects of the reforms on There are two problems in the environmental dimension. The economic performance and reviews market for developing country article goes on to examine that the factors that constrained the debt: one is the immediate crisis. dimension and to explore the reform process. The survey consid- What do we do about the large connections between the choice of ers the most important issues in volume of outstanding debt? A the discount rate and environmen- designing and implementing trade more subtle but no less important 11 problem is that because contracts Discussion, Technical, and The Social Dimensions of are unenforceable and lenders have Related Papers Adjustment Priority Survey: incomplete information about risk, An Instrument for the Rapid capital is misallocated. This article Developing Financial Institutions Identificationt and Monitoring examines the latter problem and for the Poor and Reducing Barriers of Policy Target Groups examinsthe andr cles od fto Access for Women Christiaan Grootaert and Tim Marchant reviews the nature and causes of Sharon L. Holt and Hetena Ribe Social Dimensions of Adjustment the unenforceability. It shows that Discussion Paper 117 Working Paper 12 unenforceability results in higher 60 pages/Order Stock #11775/$5.95 192 pages/Order Stock #11720/$10.9~ interest rates on smaller and This study reviews experience with This report presents a simple shorter-term loans than are other- financial services programs avail- household survey along with wise available and discourages able to poor people, especially guidelines for using it. The surve investment in developing countries. women. It analyzes the success of has two primary bbjectives. First, Similarly, unenforceability can formal and informal programs and provides a quick socioeconomic explain the perverse timing of outlines what experience suggests profile of household groups that a capital flows to developing coun- are viable solutions to the problem targets of government interventioi tries, causing credit to flow into the of providing these groups with Second, it provides a way to easil) country when income is high, and credit and savings facilities. monitor the socioeconomic vari- out when income is low. The article Poor people, especially poor ables within these groups. then analyzes the risk associated women, commonly have limited The authors put considerable with three types of information access to financial services. Donors effort into identifying the minimu asymmetries: information about and national governments have information needed. As a result, the borrowers' ability to repay, invested substantially in large-scale, the Priority Survey's questionnair, willingness to repay, and use of the regulated, subsidized credit pro- is short and easy to administer, an loan proceeds. These asymmetries, grams. But the low-interest credit the data analysis is delivered the author argues, reinforce the from these programs often goes to through an efficient system. effects of unenforceability. The wealthier people who know how prospects for remedying the the system works. Improving the Performance immediate crisis are discussed, as is The study looks at the two most of Soviet Enterprises John Nellis the need to be certain that the significant obstacles to credit for the Discussion Paper 118 proposed solutions do not aggra- poor. First, transaction costs are 32 pages/Ordei Stock #11777/$5.95 vate these problems. high for both the lender and the Most productive capacitv in the borrower. The lender incurs high Soviet Union is the property of the unit costs in administering small state. Under perestroika, howevei loans. The low literacy and nu- the Soviet government has begun 1 meracy among poor people and increase the autonomy of state their unfamiliarity with formal enterprise managers and has banking lead to high opportunity allowed new forms of production cost in dealing with a bank. emerge - such as cooperatives, Second, most poor people, and leasing arrangements, and collec- especially women, cannot fulfill tively owned firms. collateral requirements. The This paper presents the history c valuables to which women have Soviet state enterprises and com- access may be accepted by money- pares their productivity with that, lenders and pawnbrokers, but not the new enterprises. It also dis- by formal institutions. Women also cusses the problems in the "quasi- have trouble reaching formal private" sector - called this sources of credit because it is often because owners of private enter- culturally inappropriate for them to prises control them but only travel alone the necessary distances. partially own them and rarely hav Women also tend not to belong to personal capital at risk. The most organizations through which concept of ownership remains important contacts and sources of vague, and a private sector, in the credit can be reached. capitalist sense, cannot emerge. 12 The paper examines the prospects PRE Working Papers Agriculture and the Transition for true privatization and presents to the Market detailed reforms to "corporatize" Working Papers disseminate the Avishay Braveran, adesLuib Guasch, enterprises that are most likely to findings of work in progress and WPS666 * Contact C. Spooner, room remain in state hands in the foresee- encourage the exchange of ideas among N8-039, extension 30464. able future. It recommends actions Bank staff and all others interested in VERs Under Imperfect Competition to improve the awareness and skills development issues. and Foreign Direct Investment: A of Soviet managers. Case Study of the U.S.-Japan Auto Fiscal Policy with Fixed Nominal VER Postharvest Technologies: Implica- Exchange Rates: COte d'Ivoire Jaime de Melo and David Tarr tions for Food Policy Analysis Christophe Chamley and Hafez Ghanem WPS667 * Contact D. Ballantvne, room - Martin Greeley WPS658 * Contact R. Luz, room N10-033, extension 37947. EDI Analytical Case Study 5 Nll-059, extension 34303. 88 pages/Order Stock#11635/$6.95 Inflation Tax and Deficit Financing This study examines the proposi- Inflation and Growth in Egypt tion that substantially more food in the Transition from Socialism: Hinh T. Dinh and Marcelo Giugale The Case of Bulgaria WPS668 . Contact L. Santano, room could be made available by pre- Andres Solimano D7-039, extension 80553. venting food loss at the farm level. WPS659 * Contact E. Khine, room It comprises three independent Nll-061, extension 39361. Are High Real Interest Rates Bad papers on appropriate threshing for World Economic Growth? papers on approprlate threshmg The Development of the Colombian Nemat Shafik and Jalaleddin Jalali and milling techniques that can Cut Flower Industry WPS669 * Contact M. Divino, room improve farmers' productivity and Jose A. Mendez S8-038, extension 33739. the value of their farms. WPS660 * Contact N. Artis, room The first paper weighs the N10-013, extension 37947. Inflation Adjustments of Financial Statements: Application of Inter- potential increase in available food The Bretton Woods Agencies and national Accounting Standard 29 made possible by efficient Sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s: Yaaqov Goldschmidt and Jacob Yaron postharvest technologies against Facing the Tough Questions WPS670 * Contact C. Spooner, room the effects of thesetechRichard E. Feinberg N8-039, extension 30464. the effects of these tecrnologpes on WPS661 * Contact S. King-Watson, the welfare of poor rural people. It room S8-040, extension 33730. Lessons from the Heterodox also discusses the potential of that Stabilization Programs increase to eradicate hunger. Trends in Social Indicators and Miguel A. Kiguel and Nissan Liviatan The second paper is a case study Social Sector Financing WPS671 * Contact E. Khine, room Jacques van der Gaag, Elene Makonnen, Nl1-067, extension 39361. of the adoption of pedal threshers and Pierre Englebert for rice in Bangladesh. The author WPS662 * Contact B. Rosa, room The Macroeconomics of Public examines the social and economic S9-137, extension 33751. Sector Deficits: The Case of Ghana effects of using the pedal thresher. Roumeen Islam and Deborah L. Wetzel effects of using the pedal thresher. Bank Holding Companies: A Better WPS672 * Contact R. Luz, room It increases labor productivity, but Structure for Conducting Universal N11-059, extension 34303. necessitates a choice between more Banking? jobs and greater productivity. Samuel H. Talley The Macroeconomics of Public The third paper examines the WPS663 * Contact Z. Seguis, room Sector Deficits: The Case of choices for paperi e mesg ine N9-005, extension 37665. Pakistan choices for rice milling in Nadeem U. Haque and Peter Montiel Bangladesh and the displacement of Should Employee Participation Be WPS673 * Contact R. Luz, room female wage labor associated with Part of Privatization? N11-059, extension 34303. the introduction of mechanized Barbara W. Lee WPS664 * Contact G. Orraca-Tetteh, Distributional Effects of Adjust- milling. For the poorest rural room N9-069, extension 37646. ment Policies: Simulations for Two women from landless households, IArchetype Economies the only employment option is Microeconomic Distortions: Static * Fransois Bourguignon, Jaime de Melo, ki as labor in neighbor- Losses and their Effect on the and Akiko Suwa wornmg as wage labor m nelghbor- Efficiency of Investment WPS674 * Contact the World ing households processing rice into Ramon L6pez Development Report office, room paddy. The introduction of rice WPS665 * Contact the World Develop- P4-001, extension 38064. mills operated by men has made ment Report office, room P4-001, the processing cheaper and elimi- extension 38064. nated many positions. 13 Are Buybacks Back? Menu-Driven Children and Intra-household Health Financing in the Poor Debt-Reduction Schemes with Inequality: A Theoretical Analysis Countries: C'ost Recovery or Cos Heterogenous Creditors Ravi Kanbur Reduction? Ishac Diwan and Mark M. Spiegel WPS685 * Contact J. Sweeney, room J. Brunet-Jadlly WPS675 * Contact S. King-Watson, S3-026, extension 31021. WPS692 * Contact 0. Nadora, room room S8-040, extension 31047. S6-065, extension 31091. Lendingfor.Learning: Twenty Higher Education in the Republic Years of World Bank Support Report on Adjustment Lending II of Yemen: The University of Sana'a for Basic Education Lessons for Eastern Europe Viswanathan Selvaratnam and Omporn Adriaan Verspoor Vittorio Corio L. Regel WP5686 * Contact C. Cristobal, room WPS693 * Contact A. Oropesa, room WPS676 * Contact C. Cristobal, room S6-035, extension 33640. N11-035, extension 39075. S6-035, extension 33640. Brazilian Frozen Concentrated Labor Markets in an Era of On Economic Transformation in Orange Juice: The Folly of Unfair Adjustment: An.Overview East-Central Europe: A Historical Trade Cases Susan Horton, Ravi Kanbur, and International Perspective Carlos Alberto Primo Braga and Simao and Dipak Mazuimdar Andres Solimano Davi Silber WPS694 * Contact M. Schreier, room WPS677 * Contact E. Khine, room WPS687 * Contact N. Artis, room M4023, extension 36432. N11-067, extension 39361. NIO-013, extension 37947. Long Term Prospects in Eastern Economic Growth: A Review of the Europe: The Role of External Theoretical and Empirical Working Papers are NOT avail- Finance in an Era of Change Literature _ . . . u.i.i.sIshac Diwan and Fernando Saldanha David Renelt able through the Publications WPS695 * Contact S. King-Watson, WPS678 * Contact R. Luz, room Department. Please address room S8-025, extension 33730. Nl 1-059, extension 34303. requests for papers to the con- tact person indicated at the Macroeconomics of Public Sector Poverty Alleviation in Mexico Bank's main address. Deficits: The Case of Chile Santiago Levy Jorge Marshall and Klaus Schmidt- WPS679 * Contact M. Stroude, room Hebbel 18-159, extension 38831. WPS696 * Contact S. Jonnakuty, roon On Hunger and Public Action Macroeconomics of Public Sector NI1-039, extension 39074. Martin Ravallion Deficits: The Case of Zimbabwe Volatility Reoversal from Interest WPS680 * Contact C. Spooner, room Felipe Morande and Klaus Schmidt- Rates to the Real Exchange Rate: N8-039, extension 30464. Hebbel Financial Liberalization in Chile, WPS688 * Contact S. Jonnakuty, room 1975-82 Political-Economy Arguments N11-039, extension 39074. Paul D. McNelis and Klaus Schmidt- for Uniform Tariff Hebbel Arvind Panagariya and Dani Rodrik Do Tax Policies Stimulate WPS697 H Contact S. Jonnakuty, roon WPS681 * Contact K. Cabana, room Investment in Physical and N11-039, extension 39074. N1O-037, extension 37947. Research and Development Capital? Tax Policy Options to Promote Intertemporal Substitution, Risk Anwar Shah and John Baffes Private Capital Formation in Aversion, and Private Savings in WPS689 * Contact A. Bhalla, room Pakistan Mexico N10-055, extension 37699. Andrew Feltenstein and Anwar Shah Patricio Arrau and Sweder van WPS698 * Contact A. Bhalla, room Wijnbergen The Terms-of-Trade Effects from the N10-055, extension 37699. WPS682 * Contact S. King-Watson, Elimination of State Trading in room S8-040, extension 31047. Soviet-Hungarian Trade Regulation and Deregulation Gabor Oblath and David Tarr in Industrial (Countries: Some Vocational Schooling, WPS690 * Contact J. Smith, room Lessons for LDCs Occupational Matching, and Labor H9-071, extension 37350. Ralph Bradburd and David R. Ross Market Earnings in Israel WPS699 * Contact E. Madrona, room Shoshana Neuman and Adrian Can Debt-Reduction Policies N9-061, extension 37496. Ziderman Restore Investment and Economic WPS683 * Contact C. Cristobal, room Growth in Highly Indebted Trade Liberalization and the S6-035, extension 33640. Countries? A Macroeconomic Transition to a Market Economy Framework Applied to Argentina Oleh Havrylyshyn and David Tarr The Value of Intra-household Jacques Morisset WPS700 * Contact N. Castillo, room Survey Data for Age-based WPS691 * Contact S. King-Watson, N10-031, extension 37961. Nutritional Targeting room S8-025, extension 31047. Lawrence Haddad and Ravi Kanbur WPS684 * Contact J. Sweeney, room S3-026, extension 31021. 14 Education and Adjustment: A Financial Reform in Socialist The Outlook for Commercial Bank Review of Literature Economies in Transition Lending to Sub-Saharan Africa Andrew Noss Millard Long and Silvia B. Sagari Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and Francis WPS701 * Contact C. Cristobal, room WPS711 * Contact M. Raggambi, room Nyirfesy S6-035, extension 33640. N9-041, extension 37657. WPS720 * Contact Sheilah King- Watson, room S8-040, extension 31047. Should Price Refonn Proceed Foreign Direct Investment in Gradually or in a "Big Bang?" Developing Countries: Patterns, The Demand for Money in Sweder van Wvijnbergen Policies, and Prospects Developing Countries: Assessing WPS702 * Contact M. Stroude, room Thomas L. Brewer the Role of Financial Innovation 18-159, extension 38831. WPS712 * Contact S. King-Watson, Patricio Arrau, Jose De Gregorio, room S8-025, extension 31047. Carmen Reinhart, and Peter Wickham The Political Economy of Fiscal WPS721 * Contact S. King-Watson, Policy and Inflation in Developing The Determination of Wages room S8-040, extension 31047., Countries: An Empirical Analysis in Socialist Economies: Some Sebastian Edwards and Guido Tabellini Microfoundations Is Rice Becoming an Inferior Good? WPS703 * Contact A. Bhalla, room Simon Commander and Karsten Staehr Food Demand in the Philippines NIO-055, extension 37699. WPS713 * Contact 0. Del Cid, room Merlinda D. Ingco M7-047, extension 39050. WPS722 * Contact P. Kokila, room Costs and Finance of Higher S7-040, extension 33716. Education in Pakistan Women in Forestry in India Improving Women's and Children's Rosemary Bellew and Joseph DeStefano Ravinder Kaur Nutrovin Sub-saan Chica: WPS704 * Contact C. Cristobal, room WPS714 * Contact A. Sloan, room Nutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa: S6-035, extension 33640. S9-121, extension 35108. An Issues Paper Olayinka Abosede and Judith S. WA}1hat Causes Differences in Promoting Girls' and Women's McGuire Achievement in Zimbabwe's Education: Lessons from the Past WPS723 * Contact 0. Nadora, room Secondary Schools? Rosemary Bellew and Elizabeth M. King S6-065, extension 31091. Abby Rubin Riddell and Levi Martin WPS715 * Contact C. Cristobal, room Fiscal Issues in Adjustment: An Nyagura S6-214, extension 33640. Introduction WPS705 * Contact C. Cristobal, room Introducin S6-035, extension 33640. Financing Training: Issues and Riccardo Faini and Jaime de Melo Options WPS724 * Contact D. Ballantyne, room Successful Nutrition Programs in Christopher Dougherty and Jee-Peng N10-019, extension 37947. Africa: What Makes Them Work? Tan Eileen Kennedy WPS716 * Contact C. Cristobal, room How Structure of Production WPS706 * Contact 0. Nadora, room S6-214, extension 33640. Determines the Demand for Human S6-065, extension 31091. Capital Does Financial Liberalization Indermit S. Gill and Shahidur R. Population, Health, and Nutrition: Really Improve Private Investment Khandker Fiscal 1990 Sector Review in Developing Countries? WPS725 * Contact A. Sloan, room Population, Health, and Nutrition Jacques Morisset S9-121, extension 35108. Division, Population and Human WPS717 * Contact S. King-Watson, Resources Department room S8-045, extension 31047. Perspectives on the Design of WPS707 * Contact 0. Nadora, room Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations S6-065, extension 31091. Impact of Investment Policies Anwar Shah on German Direct Investment WPS726 * Contact A. Bhalla, room Nongovernmental Organizations in Developing Countries: An NIO-059, extension 37699. and Health Delivery in Sub- -Empirical Investigation is Export Diversification the Best Saharan Africa Andrea Gubitz Is to Diversifictiowth and Jocelyn Dejong WPS718 * Contact S. King-Watson, Way to Achieve Export Growth and WPS708 * Contact 0. Nadora, room room S8-045, extension 31047. Stability? A Look at Three African S6-065, extension 31091. Countries How Trade and Economic Policies Ridwan Ali, Jeffrey Alwang, and Paul An Empirical Macroeconomic Affect Agriculture: A Framework B. Siegel Model for Policy Design: The Case for Analysis Applied to Tanzania WPS729 r Contact M. Gunasekara, of Chile and Malawi room HS-055, extension 32260. Luis Serven and Andres Solimano Ramon Lopez, Ridwan Ali, and Bjorn Wage and Employment Policies in WPS709 * Contact S. Jonnakuty, room Larsen Czechoslovakia N11-039, extension 39074. WPS719 * Contact M. Gunasekara, Luis A. Riveros room H5-055, extension 32261. WPs A Con Urban Property Tax Refomn: S6-228, extension 33651. Guidelines and Recommendations William Dillinger WPS710 * Contact V. David, room S10-141, extension 33734. 15 * - 0 S% August for the transition to a market economy tion Treaty, Caracas, Venezuela and structural reforms for the financial [Contact: Richard Manning, Econom 12-15 - Water Resources in the Next sector and the economy [Contact: Development Institute, World Bank, Century, Stockholm, Sweden [Contact: Heman Cortes, Economic Development 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC Bo Krantz, Stockholm Water Founda- Institute, World Bank, 1818 H Street, 20433, tel. 202-473-6405] tion, Bredgrand 4, S-111 30 Stockholm, NW, Washington, DC 20433, tel. 202- Sweden] 473-6456] 21-25 - International Seminar on Efficient Water Use, Mexico City, 22-29 - 21st International Conference October Mexico [Contact: Seminar Secretarial of Agricultural Economists, Tokyo, Instituto Mexicana de Tecnologia del Japan, on sustainable agricultural 2- Agricultural Prospects for Eastem Agua, Avenida Cuauhnahuac 8532, development: the role of international Europe, Exeter, U.K. [Contact: K. S. Colonia Progreso, Jiutepec, Morelos, cooperation [Contact: R. J. Hildreth, Howe, Agricultural Economics Unit, Mexico C.P. 62550, tel. (73) 19 43 81, f IAAE, Farm Foundation, 1211 W. 22nd University of Exeter, St. German's (73) 19 37 421 Street, Suite 216, Oak Brook, Illinois, Road, Exeter, EX4 6TL U.K.] 60521-21971 November 14-18 - International Conference on September Ecologically Sustainable Industrial 11-16 - Seminar on Industrial Restn Development, Copenhagen, Denmark, turing and Integration of Small and 7-14 - Seminar on Sustainable [Contact: United Nations Industrial Medium Enterprises, Bangkok, Thai- Development and the Future of Cities, Development Organization, P.O. Box land, on how restructuring can affect Bauhaus, Dessau, Germany [Contact: 300, Vienna International Centre, 1400 the market structure, scale of enter- European Centre for Future Studies, Vienna, Austria, tel. (43-1) 211 310] prises, and opportunities for small- ai Prof. Dr. Bernd Hamm, Department of medium-scale industries [Contact: Social Sciences, University of Trier, P.O. 17- Senior Policy Seminar for Chief Sahathavan Meyanathan, Economic Box 3825, D5500 Trier, Germany, fax Executives of Development Banks, Development Institute, World Bank, (49) 651 23498] Bangkok, Thailand, to allow an 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC exchange of experiences on develop- 20433, tel. 202-473-6376] 8-12 - International Conference on ment banking in developing countries Emergency Planning and Disaster [Contact: Nicholas Bruck, Economic 19-22 - Semirar on the Private Sectc Management, Lancaster, U.K. [Contact: Development Institute, World Bank, Role in Transport, Washington, DC Emergency '91, Conference Office, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC [Contact: Pedro Geraldes, Economic Bowland College, Lancaster University, 20433, tel. 202-473-64571 Development Institute, World Bank, LAI 4YT, U.K.] 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 21-23 - Agricultural Technology: 20433, tel. 202-473-2372] 9-11 - Environmental Impact of Current Policy Issues for the Interna- Hazardous Wastes, Poznan, Poland tional Community and the World Bank, 20-24 - 3rd International Associatioi [Contact: ISWA, Polskie Zrzeszenie Airlie House, Virginia, on technology on Water Pollution Research and Inzynierbw, i Technikbw Sanitamych, generation, transfer, and implementa- Control Regional Conference on ul. H. Wieniawskiego 5/9, 61-712 tion [Contact: Jock R. Anderson, World Development and Water Pollution Poznan, Poland, tel. +48 61 521 772] Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, Control - Asian Waterqual '91, DC 20433, tel. 202-473-04371 Shanghai, China [Contact: Li Xiaopin 16-27 - Workshop on Financial Sector Huangpu River Research Developme Analysis and Policies, Prague, Czecho- 21-25 - Seminar on Policies and No. 1 Nandan Road, Shanghai 20003C slovakia, on basic tools for analyzing Practices for Sustainable Development China] and evaluating financial sector policies in Countries of the Amazon Coopera- The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 16