Document of The World Balik FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY cr. rzoqi- cys Report No. P-5219-CHA MEMORANDUM AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT CREDIT OF SDR 23.4 MILLION (EQUIVALENT TO US$30.0 MILLION) TO THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA FOR THE NORTH CHINA EARTHQUAKE RECONSTRUCTION PROJECT JANUARY 18, 1990 Tlis donusent bas a restrited distribution and may be used by recipients only In the performance of dteir oficial dutes. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed witout World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS CURRENCY UNIT = Renminbi (RKB) US$1.00 = RMB 3.71 RMB 1.00 = US$ 0.27 (On December 16, 1989 the Renminbi was devalued to a new rate of US$1-RMB4.71) WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 meter (m) = 3.28 feet (ft) 1 cubic meter (cmb) 35.31 cu feet 1 hectare (ha) = 2.47 acres 1 kilogram (kg) = 2.20 pounds ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS HPG Hebei Provincial Government IDNDR International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction MCA Ministry of Civil Affairs 'OC Ministry of Construction MOF Ministry of Finance PRC People's Republic of China RMC (World Bank) Resident Mission in China SPC State Planning Commission SPG Shanxi ProviTlcial Government SSB State Seismological Bureau YCG Yangyuan County Government (Hebei Provinze) YPG Yanbei Prefecture Government (Shanxi Province) FISCAL YEAR January 1 to December 31 FOR OMCIAL USE ONL' CHIN; NORTH CHINA EARTHQUAKE RECONSTRUCTION PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrowers People's Republic of China (PRC) Amount: SDR 23.4 million (US$30.0 million equivalent) Termst Standard, with 35 years maturity Relending terms: MOF will relend part of the proceeds of the credit in Renminbi to Shanxi Province (SDR 16.76 million) and Hebei Province (SDR 4.68 million) interest-free with a 1 percent annual service charge, for 25 years, including 10 years of grace. MCF will bear the foreign exchange risk. Flow of Funds: On-lending for housing reconstruction and repair, at 1.3 percent per year, for up to 15 years depending on the income of the beneficiaries, including a one-year grace period in Hebei and a two-year grace period in Shanxi; and for enterprises, at prevailing interest rate and maturity period for similar loans from relevant financial intermediaries sucb as the Agricultural Bank of China. Budgetary allocation for schools, clinics and other public facilities; for irrigation and water supply works; and to the State Seismological Bureau. Financing Plan: PRC US$ 0.5 million Shanxi Province/ Yanbei Prefecture 5.5 Hebei Province/ Yangyuan County 1.2 Beneficiazies 8.1 IDA 30.0 TOTAL US$45.3 million Economic Rate of Return: Not calculated: least-cost solutimns have been adopted for reconstruction and repair using local materials and designs with simple, earthquake-resistant features Maps IBRD 22045, 22086 This document has a restrkted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their offcial duties. Its contents nmay not otherwise be diclosed without World Bankr atitha!utlon. MEMORANDUM AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A CREDIT OF SDR23.4 MILLION (US$30.0 MILLION EQUIVALENT; TO THE PEOPLE'S REPU3LIC OF CHINA FOR THE NORTH CHINA EARTHQUAKE RECONSTRUCTION PROJECT 1. The following memorandum and recommendation on a proposed emergency credit to the People's Republic of China for SDR23.4 mill:. (US$30.0 million equivalent) is submitted for approval. The proposed credit would be on standard IDA terms with 35 years maturity. It would help finance accelerated earthquake reconstruction operations in affected areas in Shanxi and Hebei provinces, and a small national program of technical assistance for earthquake prediction, mitieation and preparedness. Earthquake Disaster 2. China has experienced some of the most severe recorded earthquakes in the world. Since 1900, there have been 662 earthquakes with magnitude over 6 on the Richter Scale, of which 106 registered over 7 or around thirty percent of world earthquakes over that intensity. Sixty percent of China's land area is in seismic zones over vulnerability 6, and seventy percent of metropolitan areas of over 1 million population are in seismic zones over 7. The death toll from earthquakes in China in the twentieth century exceeds 600,000, accounttrg for over 5OX of the world total. Chinese earthquake specialists have predicted that, after a decade of relative calm, China is entering a period of high seis- mic activity which is likely to last for 12 to 15 years. 3. Earthquakes rocked part of Northern China at the junction of Shanxi and Hebei provinces and Nei Mongol Autonomous Region west of Beijing on the night of October 18, 1989 and early the next morning. Five of the quakes registered more than 5.0 on the Richter Scale, the peak shock just after midnight registering 6.1. There were many aftershocks in the following weeks, including one on Octo- ber 23 which registered 5.2. This Datong-Yanggao earthquake was one of the worst to hit Northern China since 1976 when a major quake (registering 7.8 on the Richter Scale) killed over 400,000 people and substantially destroyed the city of Tangshan in Hebei Province (about 5 hours journey by rail east of Beijing). The epicenter of the Datong-Yanggao earthquake lay near Bu Cun vil- lage, in Yanbei Prefecture of Shanxi Province. This is an impoverished rural area (1988 per capita income of RMB331 (US$89) in Yanbei and RHB446 ($120) in Hebei's adjacent Yangyuan County) located on the Loess Plateau, a windswept, eroded plain about 1,300 m above sea level. Local employment is mainly in coal mining and agriculture (largely corn and wheat-growing in the dusty, infertile soil). Housing in this rural area is mainly mud-brick and stone construction that is vulnerable to earthquake shocks. The casualty toll in Yanbei and in neighboring Yangyuan County of Hebei Province (20 dead and less than 200 seriously injured) was mercifully slight due to earlier, less severe warning quakes but property damage was severe. Some 25,000 mainly privately-owned hou- sing units and over 3,000 rooms in schools, clinics and community facilities *ere destroyed and 46 local industries as well as various infrastructure (bridges, power and telecommunications lines) were badly damaged. Many more were partly destroyed. Estimates by the Shanxi Province Seismological Bureau indicate that direct losses in Yanbei exceeded US$100 million. Total damage in Yangyuan, further from the epicenter, was less, but has not been quantified. -2- Very few of the assets were insured. Indirect production losses, mainly by industry and commerce, are estimated at about US$15 million in the first year and about 1.500 workers have been idled. Relief expenditures totalled 84B26.4 million (US$7.1 million), of which about three-quarters yere for tempo- rary housing. As of early December, 1989, about 15 percent of the households in the affected area of Shanxi (about 32,000 families or 125,000 people) and a smaller proportion, about 9,000 families, in Yangyuan County, further from the quake's epicenter and thus less seriously affected, were in temporary shelter for the winter, and 325 schools were operating in tents or other interim facilities. ProJect Obiectives and Rationale for IDA Involvement 4. While not a major disaster by Chinese or world standards in terms of value of physical assets destroyed, the Datong-Yanggao earthquake has signifi- cantly affected the regional eronomy, with the estimated cost of reconstruction of villages, economic assets and infrastructure at around US$150 million. About 150,000 people were rendered homeless, their barns and stables destroyed and their stored winter food and animal feed lost or exposed to the elements. In response to a message from IDA's senior management, the Government of China expressed interest in assistance for a possible emergency earthquake rehabilita- tion credit. China once before received assistance from the Association after a major natural disaster: recovery and salvaging operations after a major forest fire in northeastern China are being supported under the Da Xing An Ling Forest Fire Rehab3iitation Project (FY88, US$56.9 million equivalent), which is being implemented satisfactorily. The proposed project would assist in normalizing economic activity in the earthquake-affected area by undertaking reconstruction operati3ns in Yanbei Prefecture of Shanxi province and Yangyuan County in Hebei province through a village reconstruction prosgram, replacement and reequipping of essential social and economic infrastructure, and rehabilitation of facili- ties of productive rural enterprises. The mbain rationale for IDA involvement in the proposed operation would be: to encourage and facilitate the use of cost- effective earthquake resilient construction standards for housing and infra- structure; to help implement reconstruction of housing, essential infrastructure and economic assets in a much shorter time than could otherwise be the case with the limited local financial and material resources available to the provinces; and, by a modest technical assistance component, to help China's managers of earthquake forecasting and preparedness to make their already-impressive work more effective. The project is viewed as a pilot exercise which could serve as a model for responding to similar situations in the future. Project Description 5. The project would support a program to be carried out in 1990 and 1991 consisting of: a) a village reconstruction program for about 80 villages in the four counties of Shanxi Province's Yanbei Prefecture (including about four vil- lages to be relocated) and about 70 villages in Hebei-Province's Yangyuan Coun- ty, including reconstruction of about 24,000 collapsed dwelling rooms, and reha- bilitation, repair and reinforcement of about 49,500 others, reconstruction of about 1200 public facility rooms (village classrooms, health centers, village storehouses and other community buildings) and repair and reinforcement of about 1200 others, reestablishment and repair of critical village infrastructure of power lines and water supply and repair of damaged buildings of about a dozen rural enterprises in the five counties; and b) a national component of assis- tance for earthquake prediction and disaster preparedness, including upgrading and reinforcement of the State Seismological Bureau's (SSS) national seismic -3- monitoring network for monitoring and prediction and the drawing up of a model emergency preparedness plan for Yanbei prefecture. Improvements in planning and design to be introduced through the project includes planning and design crite- ria to minmize village reloration and emphasize building rehabilitation instead of reconstruction; phasing of construction (provision, initially, to each family of two improvedlstrengthened rooms instead of the pre-earthquake four traditio- nal and earthquake-vulnerable rooms); introduction of a new rural housing tech- nology to China--the reinforced vaulted adobe house--which would be subject to prior engineering field tests to demonstrate its resistance to earthquake conditions. 6. Implementation. The village reconstruction components in the affected areas of Shanxi and Hebei provinces would be implemented by the Yanbei Prefec- ture and Yangyuan County governments, respectively, while the national component would be Implemented by SSB. Suitable organizational arrangements to implement the project have been established. Shanxi Province would draw up the disaster preparedness plan for Yanbei Prefecture. 7. The project would finance reconstruction and rehabilitation of housing, buildings, classrooms, rural health facilities, village water supplies, and purchase of modest school and health center equipment. Given the emergency nature of the project and the small and scattered works in many villages, conventional ICB or LCB procedures are not suitable; hence, modified local procurement procedures are proposed, to ensure competition and efficiency. These procedures were examined and found satisfactory to the Association. Con- struction materials to be procured in bulk (timber, steel) would be purchased from established existing suppliers after at least five quotations. Housing reconstruction would be undertaken by respective villages through force account with assistance of rural construction units selected through competition. Con- struction of public facilities and infrastructure would be undertaken through competition among local construction units. Goods for the village reconstruc- tion program would be procured through local procedures involving at least three quotations, while computers, communications and scientific equipment for the national component would be procured through limited international shopping. All contracts above US$500,000 for materials or civil works and US$50,000 for goods and equipment would be subject to prior review by the Association. Retro- active financing of up to SDR 3.1 million (US$4 million equivalent) is proposed to expedite purchase of materials and immediate rehabilitation of production enterprises. Disbursement would be made against statements of expenditure using procedures satisfactory to the Association. Funds would be made available to beneficiaries in accordance with usual government procedures for the construc- tion of housing and for the reconstruction of enterprises, namely through loans for up to 15 years, at 1.3 percent annual interest for housing, and at market rates for enterprises. Funds for construction of schools, clinics and other community facilities would be made available by the respective counties as a grant. Financing for irrigation and water supply works would also be through budgetary allocation, and water charges would be adjusted to recover investment costs plus operation and maintenance expenses. Funds for the national component would be made available to SSB as a budgetary allocation. The project is expec- ted to be completed by December 31, 1991. Agreed Actions 8. The Government of the People's Republic of China and the Governments of Shanxi and Hebei provinces have agreed: (a) to follow appropriate planning and design standards for village reconstruction and repair, and for village reloca- 4- tion; (b) to make available to beneficiaries materials and loons for the recon- struction of housing and small businesses and grar.ts for the reconstruction and reequipping of village classrooms, clinics and other public buildings damaged in the earthquake, on terms and in accordance with procedures agreed with IDA; and (c) to exchange views regularly vith 1;A on the information obtained from the seismic data collection network for earthquake monitoring and prediction, an1 their experience in its use. Benefits 9. Although the impact of the emergency is small relative to the Chinese economy, destruction and damage of over $150 million in five poor rural counties is substantial. The economic and social benefits of rapid recovery in an impo- verished agricultural area (e.g. Yanbei Pr-dfecture has total annual revenues of only about RMB100 million ($27 million) and depends on annual provincial and central government subsidies of RMB125 million ($34 million)) would be conside- rable. The total population to benefit from this project is estimated at 175,000, most of whom are poor. IDA involvement through this operation has also helped refine the design and planning standards, organization and financing of the reconstruction program and thereby reduce the implementation period from four years to under two. It has already resulted in agreement on testing and use of new, cost-effective ea &hquake resistant building techniques which have not been used in China before The enhancement of SSB's national seismic moni- toring netvork and its data analysis capacity should improve SSB's ability to predict earthquakes in the coming expected period of high seismic activity in China. Risks 10. The only significant risk is the possib' use of inappropriately high standards for housing reconstruction that oould ay the program and make it more expensive and less affordable for the benetf uries. Accordingly, the Association has obtained an assurance from the local, provincial and central authorities on village reconstruction planning aid design standards which empha- size rehabilitation and repair of affected buildings rather than the wholescale reconstruction that was initially proposed. In addition, IDA has agreed to simplified procurement and disbursement procedures to expedite project implemen- tation, while competition among local corstruction units should result in lower unit costs. Frequent supervision by IDA missions in the first year of implemen- tation is planned so that any adjustments to the agreed reconstruction program can be made as needed. Recommendction 11. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association and recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed credit. Barber B. Conable President Attachments Washington, D.C. January 18, 1990 -5- Schedule A CHINA North China Earthquake Reconstruction Project Estimated Costs and Financing Plan Estimated Costs Local Foreign Total IDA ^----------- (USS million) ------------- Shanxi Component 21.1 9.0 30.1 19.5 Hebei Component 5.9 2.5 8.4 5.3 National Component 0.5 2.0 3.0 1/ 2.5 Base Cost 27.5 14.0 41.5 27.3 Physical Contingencies 2/ 2.6 1.2 3.8 2.7 Total Project Cost 30.1 15.2 45.3 30.0 Financing Plan Shanxi Hebei National Component Component Component Total Central Government - 0.5 0.5 Shanxi Province 5.5 - - 5.5 Hebei Province - 1.2 - 1.2 Beneficiaries 6.1 2.0 - 8.1 IDA 21.5 6.0 2.5 30.0 Total 33.1 9.2 3.0 45.3 11 Includes US$500,000 unallocated. 2/ As the bulk of materials to be procured, and civil works, completed, in the first year of project implementation, no provision has been made for price contingencies. - 6 - - Schedule B CHINA North China Earthquake Reconstruction Project Procurement Method Project Element International Local Force Other Total Shopping Procedures Account ----------------------(USs$ million)---------------------- Land 0.6 0.6 (0.0) (0.0) Civil Works 30.3 10.5 40.8 (20.0) (6.9) (26.9) Goods and equipment 2.0 0.5 0.9 3.4 (2.0) (0.0) (O06) (2.6) Consultants, Training 0.5 0.5 and Technical Assistance (0.5) (0.5) Total 2.0 30.8 11.4 1.1 45.3 (2.0) (20.0) (7.5) (0.5) (30.0) Note: Figures in parentheses indicate the respective amounts financed by the Association. Force account would include competitive bidding among local construction units. Estimated IDA Disbursements IDA Fiscal Year 1990 1991 1992 -US---- $- US$ million ----------- Annual 5.0 20.0 5.0 Cumulative 5.0 25.0 30.0 Disbursements Amount Category Million SDR Percent Civil Works: Shanxi 11.52 ) Hebei 3.11 ) Construction Materials: Shanxi 5.00 ) 652 of local expenditures Hebei 1.33 ) Goods: Shanxi 0.24 ) Hebei 0.24 Communications, computer and satellite equipment for SSB 1.48 10OZ of foreign expenditures Consultants, Training and Technical Assistance 0.80 100% Unallocated 0.40 Total 30.00 -7- Schedule C CHINA North China Earthquake Emergency Reconstruction Pro3ect Timetable of Key Project Processing Eventss (a) Time taken to prepares Two months (b) Prepared by: Government, with IDA help Cc) First IDA missions November 9-11, 1989 (d) Appraisal Mission Start: November 30, 1989 te) 8eginning of Negotiations: December 15, 1989 (f) Planned Date of Effectiveness: March 31, 1990 8g) List of relevant PCRs and PPARs: None -8- Schedule D Page 1 of 3 STATUS OF LARK GROUP OPERATIONS IN THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHIA A. STATEMENT OF BANK LOANS AND IDA CREDITS a/ (as of September 30, 1989) Loan/ Aount (US$ million) Credit Fiscal (net of cancellations) Number Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed bi Four loans and nine crvditq ha"e been fully disbursed 408.57 471.02 - 2231 83 PRC Petroleum I (Daqing) 162.40 - 12.16 2252 83 PRC Petroleum II (Zhongyuan-Wenliu) 100.80 - 16.S2 226111S47 63 PRC State Farms I (Heilongjiang) 25.30 45.00 0.19 1411 84 PRC Polytechnic/TV University - 85.00 18.11 1417 84 PRC Rubber Development ^ 100.00 12.94 2382 84 PRC Lubuge Hydroelectric 145.40 - 34.05 2394 84 PRC Railway 220.00 - 14.56 1472 84 PRC Rural Health & Medical Educ. - 85.00 17.70 2426 84 PRC Petroleum III (Karamay) 92.50 - 13.31 2434/1491 84 PRC Industrial Credit II (CIS II) 105.00 70.00 19.06 2444/1500 84 PRC Agricultural Education II 45.30 (23.50)1/ 9.78 1516 85 PRC Agricultural Research II - 25.00 9.01 1551 85 PRC University Development II - 145.00 49.22 2493 85 PRC Power I1 117.00 - 26.52 2501 85 PRC Changcun (Luan) Coal Mining 120.50 - 99.74 1577 85 PRC Seeds - 40.00 9.53 1578 8S PRC Rural Water Supply - 80.00 27.98 2539/1594 85 PRC Highway I 42.60 (30.00)1/ 19.09 2540 85 PRC Railway II 23S.00 - 172.51 2541 85 PRC Fertilizer Rehabilitation & 97.00 - 9.10 Energy Saving 1605 85 PRC Forestry Development - 47.30 26.29 2579/1606 85 PRC PiShiHang-Chadhu Area Development 17.00 75.00 33.66 2580 85 PRC Weiyuan Gas Field Technical 25.00 - 9.80 Assistance 1642 86 PRC Rural Credit I1 - 90.00 3.73 2659/1663 86 PRC Industrial Credit III (CIB III) 75.00 25.00 15.43 1664 86 PRC Technical Cooperation Credit II - 20.00 19.79 1671 86 PRC Provincial Universities - 120.00 36.13 2678/1680 86 PRC Third Railway 160.00 70.00 185.06 2689 86 PRC Tianjin Port 130.00 - 104.66 1689 86 PRC Freshwater Fisheries - 60.00 8.26 2706 86 PRC Beilungang Thermal Power 225.00 - 76.26 2707 86 PRC Yantan Hydroelectric 52.00 25.23 2708 86 PRC Liaodong Bay Petroleum Appraisal 15.00 - 1.00 2723/1713 86 PRC Rural Health & Preventive Med. 15.00 65.00 65.59 1733 87 PRC Red Soils - 40.00 12.39 2775 87 PRC Shuikou Hydroelectric 140.00 - 80.74 2783/1763 87 PRC Industrial Credit IV (CIB IV) 250.00 50.00 124.40 2784 87 PRC Shangpai Machine Tools 100.00 - 97.19 - 9 -schedule D Page 2 of 3 Loan! Amount (US$ million) Credit Fiscal (net of cancellations) Number Year Borrower Purpose Bank IVA Undisbursed £1 1764 87 PRC Xinjiang Agricultural Developwent - 70.00 43.63 2794/1779 87 PRC Shanghai Sewerage 45.00 100.00 131.77 2811/1792 87 PRC Beijing-Tianjin-Tanggu Ixpresaay 25.00 125.00 120.46 281211793 87 PRC Gansu Provincial Development 20.00 150.50 132.62 1835 87 PRC Planning Support & Special Studies - 20.70 18.33 2838 87 PRC Fertilizer Rationalization 97.40 - 90.86 2852 87 PRC Wujing Thermal Power 190.00 - 162.30 1871 88 PRC Rural Credit III - 170.00 60.96 2877/1845 88 PRC Huangpu Port 63.00 25.00 78.37 2907/1875 88 PRC Dalian Port 71.00 25.00 83.84 1885 88 PRC Northern Irrigati6n 103.00 80.46 292411887 88 PRC Coastal Lands Development 40.00 60.00 63.22 1908 88 PRC Teacher Training - 50.00 36.68 2943 88 PRC Pharmaceuticals 127.00 . 121.89 295111917 88 PRC Sichuan Highway 75.00 50.00 114.67 2952 88 PRC Shaanxi Highway 50.00 - 47.01 1918 88 PRC Dazing An Ling Forestry - 56.90 38.46 2955 88 PRC Beilungang II 165.00 - 120.95 2958 88 PRC Phosphate Development 62.70 - 62.70 2968 88 PRC Railway IV 200.00 - 193.90 1984 89 PRC Jiangxi Provincial Highway - 61.00 49.92 1997 89 PRC Shaanxi Agricultural Dev. 21 - 136.00 100.53 2006 89 PRC Textbook Development _ 57.00 53.33 2009 89 mC Intaegrated Reg. Health 2/ - 52.00 50.26 3006 89 PRC Ningbo & Shanghai Ports 76.40 - 68.61 3007 89 PRC Xiamen Port 2/ 36.00 - 36.00 3022 89 PRC Tianjin Light Industry 154.00 - 154.00 306012014 89 PRC Inner Mongolia lailway 21 70.00 80.00 144.76 2017 89 PlC Shandong Agriculture Dev. 21 - 109.00 103.25 3066 89 PRC Hubei Phosphate 21 137.00 - 137.00 307312025 89 PRC -:andong Prov. Highway 60.00 50.00 ;09.50 3075 89 PRC rifth Industrial Credit 300.00 - 300.00 Total 4,777.30 2,858.40 of which hts been repaid 123.10 - Total now held by Bank and IDA 4,654.20 2,858.40 Amount sold: Of which repaid - - Total Undisbursed 3,119.63 1,509.30 4,628.93 / The sttus of the projects listd to Part A is described in * sperate rpt on *Il gank/10A financed projects In eecution, wbich Is updated twice yearly and circulated to the Exentive Directrs on AprTiI 80 ad October S. As redit. or. d_lnes d In SlIft (aince MA Replenlaiment VI), undlebur_eend 3 redit balaf. ore convert to del lore at the current. evehange rati beta.. the del lar and the SO. in s_m cas, therefore, the andiebrse balanc, Indicates a dollar amt greater then the original principal endit ass_t preased In dollars. Nste: 1/ Credit fully disbursed. !/ ote yet effective. - 10 - Schedule D PP3O 3 of 3 B. STATEMENT OF IFC INVESTMENTS (as of September 30, 1989) Invest- Fiscal Type of Loan Equity Total ment no. year Obligor business -_ (US$ million) -- 813 1985 Guangzhou and Peugeot Automobile 15.00 2.00 17.00 974 1987 China Investment Co. Investment 3.00 0.04 3.04 1020 1987 Shenzhen China Bicycle 5.00 - 5.00 Bicycles Co. Ltd. Manufacture 1066 1988 Crown Electronics Electronics 15.00 - 15.00 1119 1989 Shenzhen Chronar Solar Solar 2.00 1.00 3.00 Energy Energy Total Gross Commitments 40.00 3.04 43.04 Less cancellations, terminations repayment and sales - - - Total Commitments now Held by IPC 40.00 3.04 43.04 Total Disbursed 38.00 3.04 41.04 Total Undisbursed 2.00 0 2.00 12/19/89 AS3CO - 11 - CHINA NORTH CHINA EARTHQUAKE RECONSTRUCTION PROJECT TECHNICAL ANNEX 11 Backaro'rnd 1. Earthquakes rocked part of Northern China at the junction of Shanxi and Hebei provinces and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region west of Beijing on the night of October 18, 1989 and early the next morning. Five of the quakes exceeded 5.0 on the Richter Scale, the peak shock measuriag 6.1. There were many aftershocks in the following weeks, including tremors on October 23 (5.2) and December 13 (4.0). The Datong-Yanggao earthquake was one of the worst to hit Northern China since 1976 when a major quake (registering 7.8) killed over 400,000 people in the city of Tangshan irn Hebei Province (about 5 hours jour- ney by rail east of Beijing). The epicenter of the Datong-Yanggao earthquake lay near Bu Cun village (90 percent destroyed) in Yanbei Prefecture of Shanxi Province (Map IBRD 22045). This is an impoverished rural area located on the Loess Plateau, a windswept, eroded plain about 1,300 m above sea level. Per capita incomes are low, in 1988 only RMB331 (US$89) in Yanbei. Local employment is provided mainly in coal mining and agriculture (largely corn and wheat-growing in the dusty, infertile soil). Housing in this rural area is mainly mud-brick and stone construction that is vulnerable to earthquake shocks. Casualties in Yanbei and in neighboring Yangyuan County of Hebei Provifce (20 dead and less than 200 seriously injured) were fortunately slight due to earlier, less severe warning quakes and prompt evacuation action by local officials, but property damage was severe. Some 25,000 mainly privately-owned houses and over 3,000 rooms in schools, clinics and community facilities were destroyed and 46 local industries as well as various infra- structure (bridges, power and telecommunications lines) badly damaged. Many more were partly damaged, but production in coal mines was largely unaffected. Estimates by the Shanxi Province Seismological Bureau indicate that direct losses in Yanbei exceeded US$150 million. Very few (about 3-4 percent) of the assets were insured. Indirect production losses, mainly by industry and com- merce, are estimated at about US$15 million in the first year and about 1,500 workers have been idled. By early December, 1989 about 15 percent of the population (32,000 families or 125,000 people) in Yanbei and a smaller propor- tion in Yangyuan were in temporary shelter, consisting of a small, excavated mud room or their damaged home with makeshift straw and wood roof repairs. 2. The most severe quake is estimated to have had a magnitude of 6.1 on the Richter Scale. Chinese authorities use the New China Intensity Scale, very similar to the Modified Mercali Scale (MHC), to indicate the relative damage caused by earthquakes. The MHC Intensity Index at the epicenter in this case was VIII; damage in this zone was almost total. The extent of damage indicated by the isoseimic intensity zones rated 'JII, VI and V varied from severe to slight respectively (Map IBRD 22045). Zones VIII through VI 1! Based on a mission to China from November 30 to December 16, 1989, comprised of Messrs. Daud Ahmad, Paul Cadario, Paul Stott, Liang Ziqian and Zhou Yuling and Messrs. Edward Echeverria and Xie Li-Li (Consultants). - 12 - TECHNICAL ANNEX Page 2 of 13 were largely located in four counties of Shanxi's Yanbei Prefecture -- Datong, Guangling, Hunyuan and Yanggao. These counties contain some 876 villages with about 68,000 families or 250,000 persons. Serious damage (to the extent of more thim 402 of the housing stock destroyed or structurally impaired) occurred in about 80 villages, all in Yanbei Prefecture where damage above VI on the MKC scale was widespread (Table 1). In Yangyuan county, further from the epicenter, damage was mainly in the zone rated V on an isoseismal map with only a few areas of level VI damage. Table 1: Village Damage Statistics ----Villages---- ---Families-- ----------Persons---------- Annual income Serious Seriuus --Casualties-- Home-Animal (RMB/ County Affected Damage a/Total loss IS/ Total Killed Injured less loss c/ caP) Datong 168 18 23,422 8,489 89,074 4 11 34,912 977 336 Guangling 202 0 11.481 5,803 35,440 2 21 18,585 21 155 Hunyuan 298 41 14,149 8,160 55,701 1 12 21,667 380 363 Yanggao 140 20 18.902 11,463 67,510 10 36 42,174 395 331 Yangyuan 134 0 22,000 0 79,800 3 3 3,700 na 446 Total 942 79 89,954 33,915 327,525 20 83 121,038 na 3X7 a/ More than 401 of the village housing stock destroyed. b/ Family's housing completely destroyed (many others suffered partial loss) c/ Cattle, pigs and sheep 3. No major urban areas were damaged significantly, in part on account of their distance from the epicenter and in part on account of the greater resili- ence of urban building standards. In the rural areas of this region, however, traditional housing offers little resistance to seismic damage, being primarily a low-cost, adobe (mud-brick) construction adapted to the harsh conditions of the Loess Plateau.2/ Public buildings and factories, while incorporating better- 2/ Adobe construction is a technology widely used throughout the world with varying degrees of sophistication. The Loess Plateau version has evolved over many centuries. Houses consist of three or more south- facing rooms and stables constructed in a row, usually adjoining neighboring structures (Attachment 2b). Each room consists of a roughly Sm x 3m vault formed under an arched ceiling covered with a layer of earth to improve insulation. The northern end is closed by a thick mud-brick wall and the southern face provided with windows and a door which maximizes passive solar heating effects. Some rooms are interconnected. These are heated by a coal-fired stove which vents through an intricate flue located under the family's clay sleeping platform. 13 _ TECHNICAL ANNEX Page 3 of 13 quality materials and standards, also showed themselves vulnerable to moderately severe earthquakes. 4. The loss of economic and social facilities in the severely affected villages (summarized in Attachment 1) has wrecked the fragile local economy. Yanbei Prefecture is very poor. It has revenues of about RMB100 million ($27 million) per year and obtains provincial and central subsidies of about RMB125 million ($33.7 million) per year. Although local industry and mining is the major source of cash income, the local economy is agriculture dependent.31 The earthquake affected 46 local industries in Yanbei Prefecture and destroyed much of the villagers' accumulated foodetocks. The situation is similar, though less serious, in Yangyuan County; the area was outside the zone of major seismic damage and only one enterprise--a flour and feed mill--has had to stop operation as a result of the earthquake. Yangyuan County's 1988 per capita income was RMB446 (US$120). Subsidies from provincial and central governments to Yangyuan amounted to RNB3.35 million (US$900.000). Government's Response to the Earthquake 5. Mindful of the onset of winter, the authorities reacted quickly. The prefectures prepared a plan for the welfare of the affected villages, including the temporary restoration of homes, stored foodcrops, and production capabili- ties until permanent housing and agricultural storage can be restored. These relief efforts were coordinated by prefectural and county civil affairs offices and involved non-governmental groups such as the Chinese Red Cross, with assis- tance from the Governments of France, Japan and Czechoslovakia. They were largely completed by November 15 and at an estimated cost of RMB26.4 million (US$7.1 million). Tents were provided to allow the resumption of teaching in primary village schools where classrooms had been destroyed or made unsafe, and UNICEF offered US$25,000 for classroom equipment. Detailed planning for the reconstruction and repair of villages and affected assets got under way during the first half of November, with the restoration of electricity to most village centers. The technical resources of the local authorities are being supplemen- ted by a provincial task force drawn from the architectural, engineering and town planning institutes, and advised by experts from the Ministry of Construc- tion (MOC) and the State Seismological Bureau (SS8). IDA's Response and Strategy 6. At the government's request, three staff of the Resident Mission in China (RMC) visited the affected area from November 9 to 11, accompanied by officials of the Ministry of Finance, to assess damage and recommend an IDA response. The mission visited the four counties of Yanbei Prefecture and received information on the situation in Yangyuan country. There are no ongoing Bank Group projects in the area, and potential savings from other projects in the rural sector are not available for reallocation. In the absence of any substantial indication of interest by other donors in financing reconstruction in the area, the missicn recommended that a small emergency IDA credit would be an appropriate course of action to help expedite the reconstruction effort. An 31 In Hunyuan county (population 310,000), for example, 1988 revenue from industry (mining, cement) was about RMB98 million and from agriculture RMB70 million. However, a drought reduced the county's grain output from 101,500 tons in 1988 to about 80,000 tons in 1989. - 14 - TECHNICAL ANNEX Page 4 of 13 advisory group convened under Bank procedures for emergency operations met in mid-November to examine whether and how IDA should respond. It endorsed the mission's recommendations and a combined preparation/ appraisal mission visited China from November 29 to December 16, 1989. 7. The principles underlying IDA's response and strategy have been tot (a) advise on affordable and cost-effective reconstruction standards; (b) expe- dite the mobilization of counterpart funds and beneficiary contributions required, together with IDA funding to ensure prompt implementation of the reconstruction program; (c) draw on substantial Chinese expertise in earthquake- related matters and seismic engineering; and (d) strengthen the national agencies responsible for earthquake prediction. Project Description 8. The project would support an emergency program to be carried out in 1990 and 1991. It consists of: a) village reconstruction programs, i) in Yanbei Prefecture (Shanxi Province) reconstruction works in about 80 villages (including about four villages to be relocated), covering reconstruction of about 21,500 collapsed dwelling rooms and rehabilita- tion, repair and reinforcement of about 24,000 others, reconstruction of about 1000 public facility rooms (village classrooms, health centers, village storehouses and other public buildings) and repair and reinforcement of about 600 others, reestablishment and repair of criti- cal village infrastructure (power lines, irrigation channels and minor structures, and water supply) and repair of damaged buildingp,of about 13 rural enterprises; and ii) in Yangyuan County (Hebei Province)'reconstruction works in about 70 villages, covering reconstruction of about 2400 dwelling rooms and rehabilitation, repair and reinforcement of about 25,500 others, recon- struction of about 200 public facility rooms (village classrooms, health centers and community buildings) and repair and reinforcement of about 600 others, repair of critical village infrastructure (irrigation channels and water supply), and building repair for one seriously damaged agro-industrial enterprise and one commercial enterprise; and b) a national component of institutional development and technical assistance to support, upgrade and reinforce the State agency responsible for earthquake prediction (SSB), as well as the drawing up by Shanxi Province of an emergency preparedness program for Yanbei Prefecture. Village Reconstruction Programs 9. The proposed village reconstruction program is designed to rehabilitate rapidly the economic and social facilities severely damaged in Yanbei Prefecture and Yangyuan County. It would assist Yanbei Prefecture Government and Yangyuan County Government in the reconstruction of private rural housing and public infrastructure (classrooms, clinics, community centres and offices, stores and simple agricultural processing plants), power transmission lines, simple irrigation works and village water supplies. The specific objectives are: - 15 - TZCUNICAL ANNfX Page 5 of 13 (a) to ensure that all families will have at least two habitable, earthquake- resilient rooms as accommodation before the next winter season; and (b) to restore village public services to a reasonable basic needs level. The local authorities have adopted an affordable, least-cost approach. Villages would first be surveyed to assess the structural integrity of the remaining buildings and draw up a detailed reconstruction plan, based on various rehabilitatton options related to the degree of damage and ability and willingness to pay. In order to minimize costs and facilitate implementation, priority would be given to repair and reinforcement of the existing housing stock wherever this is feasible and cost-effective. Where damage ls more severe and reconstruction unavoidable, it would be undertaken using various earthquake resilient designs for traditional and contemporary buildings selected aceording to affordability criteria. The planning and design criteria as well as estimated unit costs and affordability for the village reconstruction program are shown in Attachment 2. A summary of the village reconstruction programs is given In Table 2 below. Table 2: Proposed Village Reconstruction Program Shanxi Province Hebei Province Number S Number 2 Villages 79 68 Population 67,200 97,300 Families 18,500 29,300 Dwellings: Existing Rooms/Stables 79,700 100 78,000 100 Damaged 54,200 68 28,000 36 Replacement Rooms 19.800 25 2,400 3 Rehabilitated Rooms 21,100 26 25,400 33 Rehabilitation not - included in project 1/ 13,300 17 - - Public Roomss Existing Rooms 5,850 100 2,000 100 Damaged Rooms 2,050 35 700 35 Replacement Rooms 900 15 100 5 Rehabilitated Rooms 1,700 29 600 30 Relocated Villages 4 0 1/ Existing rooms per family (not including stables):.Shanxi, 2.6; Hebei, 2.7 Project will ensure that each family has at least two habitable rooms 10. During appraisal, IDA agreed with project implementing agencies on least-cost solutions for the village reconstruction programs. Yanbei Prefecture and Yangyuan County have agreed to give priority to reinforcement and repair of damaged housing. Reconstruction using improved, earthquake-resistant techniques is the next option, and it is expected that community effort will be more easily mobilized close to the existing undamaged dwellings ar.4 temporary shelter. Reinforcement of existing buildings, even those with little damage, would be - 16 - TECHNICAL ANNEX Page 6 of 13 carried out to improve their seismic resilience. Only in those rare cases where more than 802 of the buildings have been destroyed will relocation of a village to a new site be considered, generally not more than one kilometer distant from the destroyed hamlets, particularly where this would favor access to the resi- dents' current fields and markets and to water supply. Expert assistance would be provided by the provincial authorities to Yanbel Prefecture in the determina- tion of new sites for the four villages identified as likely candidates for relocation. The justification for village relocation and their layout, infrastructure and land use arrangements would meet specific criteria agree4 with IDA (Attachment 2a). In all other cases in-aitu reconstruction would take place, because relocation after an earthquake is not advisable unless there has been serious seismic damage leading to environmental hazards. Shared facilities such as middle schools, township clinics, grain storage facilities and post offices would be reconstructed, at or very near existing locations. Significant labor inputs from the communities, equivalent to about 25-30? of the building costs are expected. 11. New buildings and structures would conform to seismic requirements of State building codes, as well as affordability criteria, and would entail tradi- tional and modern materials and construction methods which were reviewed by the appraisal mission and judged satisfactory. Consistent with income distribution in the villages, about 20 percent of the new dwelling rooms are expected to be constructed using relatively high cost masonry walls and timber roof; about 60? using lower-cost concrete framed adobe with timber roof; and about 20? using the traditional adobe construction with a reinforced mortar shell as shown in Attachment 2b. It was agreed at negotiations that Shanxi Province would carry out testing (para. 26) of the seismic resilience measures to be applied to traditional adobe houses before February 28, 1990. Repair and reinforcement of existing buildings would be carried out to improve their seismic resilience, too. 12. Public facilitiss to be financed under the component would include rehabilitation and reconstruction oft (a) on-site facilities such as buildings for primary schools, health posts, community offices, stores and small-scale agricultural processing facilities; infrastructure such as roads and paths, drains, water supply (handpumps or wells with electric pumps, owing to deep water tables) and sanitary facilities; and (b) off-site facilities such as mid- dle schools, township clinics and access roads, power lines, irrigation channels and minor structures. The rehabilitation of major buildings would be defined in accordance with MOC damage assessment guidelines and reconstruction carried out to national design standards and codes. 13. Formulation of the Village Reconstruction Program (Attachment 3c). A process of consultation with village communities is under way to determine the scope of the reconstruction program possible within the cost and affordability ceilings applicable in each case. YPG and YCG project teams would visit each community to work out with villagers and their leaders the highest-priority investments needed by the community in light of the available budget, the schedule for construction and repair, and to help organize the community labor input. Similarly, householders would be informed of repair and replacement options open to them and their financial implications. After a written agreement with the village on priorities and the work to be implemented by force account and with local construction units or contractors the team would: - 17 - TECHNICAL AMNNX Page 7 of 13 i) make a detailed estimate of the necessary materials to be provided for the private housing replacement and rehabilitationlrepair program, and arrange for the materials necessary to be provided; ii) help villages invite bids from local contractors or local government construction units to provide the public buildings and infrastructure; and iii) assist in supervision of the reconstruction. 14. Enterprise Rehabilitation. The enterprise rehabilitation component would finance building repair in a limited number of affected rural enterpri- ses to restore their original pre-earthquake capacity. Attachment lc lists the most seriously affected enterprises, those building repair is included in the project. In Shanxi, the project would address the rehabilitation and re- pairs required by about a dozen enterprises which suffered serious structural damage to their buildings. In Hebei the project would help one major local agro-industrial enterprise which suffered structural damage make repairs to its main buildings, as well as a commercial company which suffered damage to its premises that make the building dangerous to customers and pedestrians. As careful damage assessment and cost estimates are still being prepared by the enterprises and county engineers, the project provides a notional sum of RMB3.3 million (US$0.9 million) for Yanbei and RMB1 million (US$0.3 million) for Yangyuan. Other enterprises were affected in both provinces but they are judged able to rely on their own resources or existing credit mechanisms to rehabilitate their premises. In many cases, enterprise managers plan to take this opportunity to upgrade or diversify production, particularly for products in short supply on the free markets. Therefore, the project will focus only on rehabilitation of the earthquake damage. Investments to expand capacity or to change product lines (which is contemplated, for example, by one village enterprise which plans to change from production of cement to manufacture of an additive for plastics manufacturing) would be finainced by local financial intermediaries according to their normal lending criteria, and would not be included in the project. The Ministry of Finance and Shanxi and Hebei provinces have agreed to instruct the financial intermediaries covering the affected arei to give priority to these enterprises in providing credit. The National Comvonent for Earthquake Prediction and Emergency Preparedness 15. Damage Assessment. China has experienced some of the most severe earthquakes in the world. Since 1900, there have been 662 earthquakes with magnitude over 6 on the Richter Scale, including 106 which were over 7 in magnitude 30SZ of the earthquakes in the world over magnitude over 7 have occurred in China. Sixty percent of China's land area is in seismic vulnerability zones of over 6, and seventy percent of metropolitan areas of over 1 million population are in zones over 7. The death toll from earthquakes in China in the twentieth century exceeds 600,000, accounting for over 50S of the world total. These seismic activities have been frequent and widely scattered, with shallow epicenters and consequent grave loss of life and property. 16. Earthquake Prediction Methods. China has a long and rich history in research efforts to forecast earthquakes. As early as AD132, scientist Zhang Heng built a bowl device with a central pendulum with eight dragons from whose mouths a ball would drop indicating the direction of the earth tremor. Since - 18 - TECHNICAL ANNBX Page 8 of 13 1966, Chinese scientists have made detailed observations of earthquake precur- sors leading toward earthquake predictions. Prom 1966 to 1976, nine strong earthquakes with magnitudes greater than seven occurred in north and southwest China. During this period, some anomalous variations were detected before these earthquakes from geophysical, geodetic and geochemical observations. Chinese investigators have observed that some precursors develop continuously and change slowly while others change rapidly or even suddenly. SSB's research has demonstrated that different manifestations of precursors may reflect different stages of earthquake preparation or phases of crustal movement. which can be monitored with proper instrumentation. Prom these observations and analysis, the methodology of earthquake prediction has evolved toward long-term (10-20 years), medium term (1-2 years), short-term (1-2 months) and imminent (2 to 12 days) predictions. The research and analysis procedures were formalized with the establishment of the Center for Analysis of Prediction (CAP) under SSB. Map I8RD 22086 shows SS8's predic- tions of areas of high seismic risk in the long term. 17. The ultimate goal of precise predictions should be to achieve a response through disaster preparedness, mitigation and lowering the earthquake vulnerability of inhabited areas to serious loss of life and property. The 10 research sections of CAP monitor the seismic precursors and make a mid-term prediction for strengthening of monitored areas where there are predictions of earthquake magnitudes greater than 6.3 Richter Scale. They are responsible for making daily and monthly reports ftor domestic eartLquakes collecting the data and information obtained from SSB's national network of standard stations, precursory stations, regional transmission networks and mobile seismic monitoring units. SSB's Beijing headquarters collects data from with every province and main city in China. SSB's national computer, database and satellite communications network, which was established with partial assistance from UNDP, serves all Chinese institutions involved in earthquake prediction and research. Among the tools employed is the computer-assisted Expert System for Comprehensive Earthquake Prediction (ZSC!P). Put into operation in September, 1988, it predicted six major earthquakes for 1989, including the Datong-Yanggao Earthquake. For the Datong-Yanggao area, it forecast a quake of magnitude in excess of 5 on the Richter Scale within one year. The computer program is based on 400 rules of earthquake prediction. These range from seismological factors to changes in color and temperature of underground water, abnormal animal behaviour, crustal deformation, gravity, geomagnetic field, resistivity, etc. With data from 1000 seismological stations across the country, the computer issues a prediction report which is interpreted by SSB staff in consultation with local and provincial seismological offices. 18. Every January, Chinese earthquake specialists assemble to make their prediction of earthquakes for each region of the country over the coming year. With their present improved methodology and computerized analysis, they could have predicted the great Tangshan earthquake (para. 1) and reduced the terri- ble death toll. However, the predictions and the warnings possible for emar- gency preparedness are only as good as the data availablet that is a function of the coverage of the seimological monitoring network and the rapidity and accuracy of the data transmission to SSB's headquarters to Beijing for analy- sis. The existing network provides only partial coverage of China's vast territory, even in the areas of highest seismic risk, and accelerometer data are only sporadically complemented by other precursory readings. Communica- tions links between the monitoring stations and SSB's headquarters are a mix- - 19 - TECHNICAL ANNEX Page 9 of 13 ture of reliable digital equipment (which can be fed directly into the compu- ters) and analog readings passed o. by voice on short-wave radios. 19. Earthquake Damage Mitigation. Imaediate, on-the-spot investigation of earthquake damage has been organized by the various departments of the Ministry of Construction (MOC). The investigations include the condition of the earthquake geology, engineering geology and hydrogeology. earthquake intensity distribution, subsoil liquification and the detailed damage inspec- tion of all the major affected structures. In addition, the secondary damage, the lifeline facilities and the damage to community facilities and equipment are assessed and an estimate of economic loss is prepared. The damages from earthquakes over 7 magnitude have been carefully assessed. Analysis of the results of the 1976 Tangshan strong earthquake have been widely disseminated and published, and a revised anti-seismic Building Design Code for Industrial and Public Buildings was adopted in 1978. These regulations were followed by Design Codes for Water Supply and Drainage Works as well as gas and power/ heating plants, hydraulic structures and railway and highway construction. 20. As part of China's efforts for the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR), HOC has drawn up a program of studies and research into earthquake damage mitigation for its Earthquake Resistance Bureau. It includes techniques for seismic strengthening of existing buildings and life- line structures (traditional rural housing, high-rise urban apartment buil- dings and hospitals), earthquake vulnerability assessments of key cities, case studies of earthquake reconstruction experience in China and abroad and s aff training into modern design and construction techniques. 21. Institutional Support for Earthquake Prediction and Mitisation. The national component (Attachment 6) supports China's efforts at earthquake pre- diction and disaster preparedness. It would enhance SSB1's network of earthquake monitoring stations in identified areas of high seismic risk (the capital region, Sichuan and Yunnan) and reinforce satellite communication and computer equipment at SSB's Beijing headquarters to receive and analyze data from fixed and mobile seismic observation equipment. Also, Shanxi Province would draw up an emergency preparedness plan for Yanbei Prefecture for earthquakes ind other natural disasters and other disaster emergencies (e.g. large chemical spills, disruption of urban water supplies, building collapse, etc.), a pilot effort at the prefecture level to be replicated by Shanxi Pro- vince in other prefectures and, maybe, elsewhere in China. Terms of reference and a work program for the SSB component were agreed at negotiations. The SS1 effort is estimated to cost US$2.5 million, of which IDA would finance the foreign exchange component of US$2 million. The Yanbei emergency preparedness plan will be carried out by officials in Shanxi pro-ince, with no financing from the Credit proceeds. The Association is expected to contribute to this exercise through its review during supervision missions. Proiect Cost and Financin8 22. Cost Estimates. The estimated costs, in January 1990 prices, of the Village Reconstruction Programs (Attachment 2c) would be about RMB122.8 million (US$33.1 million) in Yanbei Prefecture and RMB34.3 million (US$9.2 million) in Yangyuan County, including villagers' labor inputs estimated to be worth about RMB22.6 million and RMB7.4 million respectively. Because of the short (18 month) implementation period expected, no price contingency allowance has been allowed. Physical contingencies of about lOS - 20 - TECHNICAL ANNEX Page 10 of 13 of the cost of the village programs, total&ing RMB114.1 million (US$3.8 million), have been included. The foreign exchange requirement of the Shanxi and Hebei subprojects is mainly indirect, and totals about RMb47.1 million (US$12.7 million).4/ The total cost of the 8SB component is about RMB9.3 million (US$2.5 million), of which the foreign cost is estimated at US$2 million, which the Association would finance. 23. Finncing Arrangements. The project financing plan includes funding from YPG and YCG and the Association, as wv.1 as cash and kind contributions from the villages. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) would be the Borrower and would onlend the proceeds to Shanxi Province and Hebei Province in local cur- rency, interest free, for 25 years, including 10 years of grace, with a one percent annual service charge. MOF would bear the foreign exchange risk. The sources of the villages' contribution are expected to be cash savings and very modest insurance refunds (less than 1 percent of the total estimated losses) as well as labor inputs. The sources of the YPG and YCG contribution are central and provincial grants, private donations after the earthquake, insurance refunds and local revenues. The cost sharing is roughly: a) for housing and village water supplies, 652 by IDA, 25-302 by beneficiaries, and 10-152 by the prefecture/county government; and b) for public facilities, 652 by IDA, 10 by villagers (labor inputs to construction) and 252 by prefecture/ county government. For individual enterprises, the cost-sharing proportions will vary, since IDA funds would be applied only for 652 of the cost of neces- sary building repair and minor equipment servicing needed to restart units to their pre-earthquake levels of output. The enterprises' retained earnings and insurance settlements and contributions by the county or prefecture govern- ments that own them would generally finance the remainder. For expansion of production or change of product output, the enterprises would seek loans from local financial institutions, which would apply their normal lending criteria and appraisal methods. The project gives rise to additional annual operating and personnel costs at SSB for the enhanced monitoring and communications network of about R3B2.5 million, which is only a small addition to SSB's current annual budget of RMB130 million. Because the reconstruction works aim to reestablish conditions before the earthquake, there are no new incremental recurrent cost'implications for Shanxi and Hebei provinces, or for Yanbei Prefecture and Yangyuan County. These cost sharing and financing arrangements are satisfactory. 24. On-lending Terms and Cost Recovery. Funding for reconstruction and repair of private housing would be provided to the beneficiaries as a loan on very concessional terms: a 1.3 percent annual interest rate and up to 15 year 4) A 20.12 devaluation of the Renminbi took effect on December 16, 1989, after appraisal and negotiation of the project. Because the bulk of project expenditures for the village reconstruction program are in local currency, the impact of this devaluation could be significant, exceeding 10 of the village reconstruction program costs. Htiwever. it is difficult to predict the course of inflation during project implementation. Accordingly, the project costs have not been adjusted. If during implementation more effective resources become available in local currency, there are additional reconstruction and rehabilitation activities in the project area that have been reviewed by the appraisal mission, are consistent with project scope, and could be financed from the Credit proceeds. - 21 - TECHNICAL ANNEX Page 11 of 13 maturity depending on the household's income, with one year of grace in Kebei and two years in Shanxi. Loans to damaged enterprises for building repair will be extended for up to 902 of the cost of the repairs, at the prevailing interest rate and maturity period for similar loans from relevant financial intermediaries seach as the Agricultural Bank of China, but loans for expansion of capacity or major renovation of buildings will be obtained through normal credit channels (para. 14). Costs of reconstruction, repair or reinforcement of public facilities (classrooms and clinics) will be made available as a grant from the provincial governments. Funds will be provided to the county water resources bureaus for irrigation and water supply through budgetary allocation, but tht. counties plan to recover these costs through adequate water charges. These on-lending terms and cost-recovery arrangements are considered appropriate given the emergency nature of the project and the relative poverty of the beneficiaries. Proiect Management and Organization 25. Organizational Structure and Responsibilities. The village recon- struction programs would be executed by the local governments in Yanbei Prefecture and Yangyuan County, and, in keeping with Chinese practice, each government has set up a separate project management office to manage the reconstruction activities. These project organizational arrangements are shown in Attachments 3a and 3b. The village and county teams, responsible for the bulk of design and construction works, would be assisted by experts from central- and provincial-level agencies as necessary. A summary of implementa- tion arrangements is provided In Attachment 3c. The overall project implemen- tation schedule is shown in Attachment 4a. Key implementation actions required to launch the project are listed in Attachment 4b. The national component for earthquake prediction would be implemented by existing units of SSB, under the direction of an official designated to coordinate the IDA- assisted effort who would be responsible for procurement and progress repor- ting tasks. The Shanxi Provincial Seimological Bureau and its Yanbei affili- ate would coordinate the preparation of the Yanbei Prefecture disaster prepa- redness plan, with input from other prefecture and provincial units. These arrangements -re satisfactory. Agreement was reached at negotiations on the project implementation schedule and organizational arrangements. 26. ProJect DesiRn and Testing. During appraisal, construction engineers and technicians from the project area, the two provicnes and MOC and the IDA mission examined the most appropriate engineering techniques for building simple, cost-effective and earthquake resistant buildings to replace the destroyed or damaged dwellings and public facilities. It was agreed that an interior-reinforced mortar adobe vaulted dwelliv3, based on local traditional architecture, village layout and constructicn techniques would be the most suitable approach for replacing the roughly 20 percent of the building units that had been totally destroyed, and that the same reinforcement torhniques would be appropriate for reinforcing those buildings that were damaged but reparable. Schematic drawings of the proposed buildings are shwnti in Attachment 2b. The Shanxi Province technical team, headed by thp Ploputy Director of the Shanxi Architectural Design Institute in Taiyuan has agreed to test the design proposals for the reinforcement of existing vault dwellings and the construction of new reinforced adobe vaulted dwellings for their use in the project. The Design Institute will prepare the workint. drawings. By February 28, 1990 the Yanbei Prefecture '.onstruction l;ureau will construct two or more prototypes to be tested in one of the villages. MOC will approve the - 22 - TECHNICAL ANNEX Page 12 of 13 project and the Shanxi Design Institute will monitor and supervise. It 'is proposed that one, three-vault building be built with improved adobe blocks but without the reinforced mortar internal shell. After curing of the block and mortar courses, the building would be subjected to simulated earthquake forces to test its resilience. After appearance of surface cracks, the test vould be concluded and the vaults strengthened with the internal reinforced mortar shell. The prototype reinforced building would be subject to the dyna- mic load tests to exceed the simulated 1976 Tangshan earthquake. A second building would be built in accordance with the new designs and tested to simu- late an earthquake of Intensity XI on the M)C scale, or beyond, to verify the safety margin of the new vault design for earthquake-resistant village dwel- lings. The testing would be part of a project launch workshop to be organized by the Ministry of Construction and the two provinces before March 15, 1990 to train project engineers in this new construction technique and to demonstrate to the local population the safety and practicality of this improved housing based on traditional design and construction methods. 27. Procurement. Construction materials and goods would be procured through local procedures (detailed in Attachment 5) which have been reviewed by the Association and are deemed satisfactory for this operation. In view of the emergency nature of the project and the small and scattered works in many villages, corventional IC8 or LCB procedures are not suitable. Instead, modi- fied local procedures are proposed. Materials available under the State Plan (State quotas at fixed prices) would be purchased directly. Materials not available under the State Plan will be purchased in the open market. Timber and steel will be procured centrally for the two provincial components (by Yanbei Prefecture for the Shanxi subproject and by Yangyuan County for the Hebei subproject) after at least five written quotaticns from their estab- lished suppliers. The respective heads of the two material supply units would be responsible for reviewing these quotations and for making a recosmendation to their respective head of the project implementation office. Other mate- rials (cement, bricks, stone, lime, etc.) would be procured locally within the respective counties, using competitive bidding wherever possible. Construc- tion and repair of houses would be carried out by respective villages through force account with assistance of rural construction units5/ selected through competition. Construction of public facilities and infrastructure would also be undertaken through competition among local construction units. Goods for the reconstruction program would be procured through local procedures invol- ving at least three written quotations. All contracts above US$500,000 for works and materials and above US$50,000 for goods and equipment would be sub- ject to prior review by the Association. Procurement of the initial batch of materials would proceed early in 1990 in order to permit commencement of con- struction in the spring, and retroactive financing of up to US$4 million would be permitted for eligible expenditures incurred after December 15. 1989. Com- munications, computer and scientific equipment for the national component will be obtained through international shopping based on at least three written quotations against a written specification. A consultant is being engaged under the World-Bank executed UNDP Second Umbrella Technical Assistance Project to help SSB prepare these procv:ement specifications. Consultants and experts for SSB will be selected and employed following procedures consistent with the World Bank's Guidelines for the Use of Consultants. S/ Yanbei Prefecture has a total of 207 registered construction units: one Grade 2; 52 Grade 3 and 154 rural construction units. - 23 - TECHNICAL ANNEX Page 13 of 13 28. Disbursement. The project would be implemented over two years with disbursement extending over three, closing on December 3i, 1992. The proceeds of the credit would be disbursed against eligible expenditures as follows: (a) 65 percent of expenditures on civil works undertaken by force account and local contractors; (b) 65 percent of expenditures for locally procured goods, materials, equipment and furnishings; (c) 100 percent of foreign costs for communications, computer and scientific equipment; and (d) 100 percent of expenditures for technical assistance and training. Disbursements would be made against Statement of Expenditure (SOB) withdrawal procedures eatisfactory to the Association. Supporting documentation for the SOEs would be maintained by the project implementation offices. A Special Account would be established in the Ministry of Finance. The account would be maintained in US Dollars with an authorized allocation of US$4 million (equivalent to the estimated average disbursement over a four-month period). Payments from the Special Account would be made in Renminbi. The documentation in support of SOEs would be retained by MOF and made -available to IDA on request. 29. Accounts and Audit. Yanbei Prefecture and Yangyuan County would maintain separate accounts and records for the project and for all SOB-related expenditures. This documentation would be subject to audit by the State Audit Administration, and the audit reports would be submitted to IDA by June 30 of each calendar year (six months following the close of each fiscal year). A fial audit report and the draft Project Completion Report to be prepared by th" Ministry of Finance would be submitted within six months of the final disbursement. 30. Environmental and Social Impact. Since the project would finance reconstruction and rehabilitation, construction would be mostly on original sites and no significant impact on the environment would be expected. In nearly all cases in-situ reconstruction would take place, because relocation after an earthquake is not advisable unless there has been serious seismic damage leading to environmental hazards. Shared facilities such as middle schools, township clinics, grain storage facilities and post offices would be reconstructed, at or very near their existing convenient locations. Reloca- tion of any community is subject to ratification by the country assembly, and must meet the planning and environmental criteria agreed with IDA (Attachment 2a). The repair of certain enterprises may allow incorporation of more modern environmental protection standards, and along with selective reconstruction in each village, permit better village planning. 31. Reporting and Evaluation. The agreed project implementation schedule is shown in Attachment 4a along with the key project launch activities and the key project monitoring indicators. Quarterly progress reports will be submit- ted by Yanbei Prefecture and Yangyuan County according to a format acceptable to the Ministry of Finance and the Association, to be developed by February 28, 1990. A detailed work program and budget for 1990 consistent with the implementation schedule agreed at negotiations is being finalized. The project quarterly reports, together with contract awards, disbursement documents and IDA supervision missions would form the basis for routine moni- toring of progress. NORTH CHINA EARTSQUACE RECONSTRUCTION PROJECT Glimpses of Damage -~~~~~~~~~~i > _ Ws +, Xi Tuan Buo Village, Yang Gao County (Population 3,400) -- OOS destroyed Traditional 'Cave* house Temporary Shelter Traditional "cave" house, candidate for Mu Chang Village, Guangling County (temporary shelter) reinforcement during rebuilding Bu Cun Village, Datong County (at quake epicenter, 100% destroyed) Cement Factory, Yanggao County (Bu-ilt 1976) .vXfl v s I~~~~~~~~ - 26 - Attachments la Socio-economic Data and Damage Estimates for villages in Yanbei Prefecture lb Socio-economic Data and Damage Estimates for villages in Yangyuan Prefecture Ic Summary Information on Selected Public Enterprises 2a Village Reconstruction Program--Planning and Design Criteria 2b Schematic Layout of Traditional Adobe Vault House House 2c Village Reconstruction Program--Estimated Construction Costs 3a Illustrative Organization Charts 3b Organization Charts of Project Implementation Offices 3c Summary of Implementation Arrangoments 4a Implementation Chart 4b Project Launch Action Timetable 4c Key Monitoring Indicators 5 Procurement and Disbursement Arrangements 6 National Component--Support for Earthquake Prediction -- 'ww w1||Xl### ---#| t#|### llllEl#| I U at 4" 4#|#!|| 4a a t!!lS!e!!!3!! l 1%tFE# | j1 e* 2 s.;X$e!ge ewl!eai!e°3-3 II;tetc§!88iJ-|| LA…_______________________________I |~~ !IthtItUI lilhl U:hUUhh hihhhhIUh 1i 8 }8|i t i ; .4"jt l1lE|| 1||| 1||||| |lE3|||lBipif|l l l Pz !tI!U U! UU UE" '. 61 's"" l;UU"' * i! !U.. 3 U UUU"' U Ut | _________________________________: | 1Wgf zl3XiSFRS^!glsg5 1||4||f I S ¢ 1' - *0b . lS GIlnPe $fiblllO§S SIRl>!%S 814|°SSllll! @le$ffi!fi|sll§|£SR¢8,l XI SE] 11~~~~~~~~~ i j } || | ta !|§8|§!2§l 1 }l,§X§iiY l ll:!EE l}s | §i§l8§r-3.!8' 2 l i i S if ii ea383~ r rI'~ IIIr~s~~ Ii r : e""eez e*°* ;rr >"3. S>> |f s~ hiUIUUI U.! !!h6UR ls ., !tU!U RiUUU S * 3II!U | hi!UIUUS Uh* I!U ^Ii ' jI' | I.i _ - Ew2X1 1{3 tS|i 181 588G8t;{ lI o|i - 28 - wm om1 waIm)M _S1CTW4 PoJr Attachmet lb VI I 1,. bt - 7.bl. IA S.ue1oe-_ Ic Veto oW O_mw Eltoe - NAo. PFepineo, yaatase Cosp* Obw.1W a00 P"Wiettlat lnmm Meling 0mm.4. M PA011e 0o m"G () NW room T_tship sm_ Feune Peallso Y/tw/y - %brrTe I Typ rmm4 T, dTe TAp 1S Oll lt . A. Vam. Caatt | I ~~~~~~~~~~~I I I Al 643 Jis ama 6 7.30 1.11 80 19.641 46 40 0 UN an 1 1.1,1 0 Al O".la 6 86.0OW I0.84 4O, I 18.105 41 406 I 0 1s so I 04 0 AS bhma Llaa 6 4 6.60 1.48 NO 1 7.10 45 406 0 UN 86 1 0 £4 Xi 0.C Ua 6 25.708 4,09 00 O S4 4S 46 0 1U0 a86 11 0 As Vw. Jig Zan a 19.610 68100 400 1 1.W i 1s t 0 a a 9 101 0 A I as co 0 as an 0 0 A? of an 0 an I 0 0 As I 06 on 0 an an1 0 0 £9 1 0 0as 0 06 an1 0 0 £10 8/0 1 41 406 1.2000 10 an061 0 200 Ttl - 1hn. 97.174 "29.6 446 78,061 a an6 1.000 US 261 .388 900 . maI.lateinltyf sonine based on Chinese Modified oneroall gingl. rtegik b/ Averwg no. at room/feel ly- 2.7 (not ieeludiag .fmbl..) a/ Type 1 - requires full r.manstrwatla; Ty"e 1 - require. rewabilitatl.a mad rel"fereseemn Amt etal_.mte so followst Oeli 44aw P1b8011 buildIJw mI Tope I Tye 2 Ty_ I _Tpe 2 6 4.069 406 10.06 80 8 1.06 106 0.06 89 J/ alunding rmem to primary chool.. dal.t.e_ sad hoitale Scener Zaemle co Selected Plbe bterb b MM :RUrS wO _su WTI 011mt JIGAM 673E 16 m00 613r-Ol ITDAL IlNE4tti CWmACZI ou 4IAL N WAlU P66Lt TM LOS LOW cost OUSSIuETI 713 ml t h SIE 7Itt tIP 664. (TPml (P -Cr46 .1 Ills.)- D Cvm now Oi FROM C_er ) am TOTAL 4746 52.l0 12.41 95.40 2.400, S." 11.62 4.2 19.10 tUt11AI COLf OIetlll.,y etale-ea.dt 1i4 NO swOls splo-t 2.400 60 2.96 2.04 2.92 0.060 1.44 2.18 0.25 Partially slpd 0.80 eta.. pr"il Pas seni pdwatbAu PO esulda pow Kil l coellectiv 16 6 p5 iaa S,ODD 8,000 .60 2.S0 6.40 0.018 0.27 1.06 0.295 p.trtlts slappd 1.00 M1d S _ pr-Id ls POW5 linte .146 m -1 kWap Chemical PrtIll.r Pet sta-earnd 1972 6U s-i.ew Dlt00 81.31801S 9.04 8.77 4.67 1.230 1.00 1.1U 0.06 otopped 8.00 _aS. Id tm bSelier rem bigeboast Isth a Om saeo-savlag VWJI t lila TE 1966 1061 eltl 10.000 27.000 0.60 0.42 0.6 0.#.0 0.11 0.60 0.e5 talI sa 1.00 _O beIld tb smlpit. CATO COUWY Week sd Titl Pint e* _-tNa. 1969 480 brIdi 40a Om - a Pee 1.87t 1.18 1.70 0.160 0.14 0.92 0.80 Portia# If lapped 2.10 41d 14 as OMedsMblea lagremssla (Including am "D. 2 1151t Poea stale-ease 19t7 180 brldcs 40 a*Pe 14 a pem 2.07 2.14 0.61 0.060 0.12 0.61 0.25 tale 13slappe 0.00 btela_ o.reo semI 11es Peas, F l leellwe 196 190 d1es 100.000 rso r 44.700 plte 0O. 0.47 1.0 0.060 0.00 0.23 0.23 po5.11. I, slp. 0.110 fbslar -ree SDa-I W 10titl.l-p re--l) felbrr ml leallve 1*1 104 _sepet 180.00,0 Fl I - 0.27s 0.21 0.2 0.060 0.01 0.18 0.20 seetisIll stepp 0.80 mmesIre pswirm er_l TANNO CoLury~~4 elryprdwtis Commas Fseliy mstsat-eod 1971 _64 ceat e 25.00e 26.00) 2.6s 2.04 1.l0 0.2S0 0.26 2." 1.66 lalal I.spped 4.60 1bIaSd a am prodIbiv* _ lto* .14 capsltp lacreeslag Cilacludlmo sea II IS SWd eaplpma). %i_tma Ca_a Ftorr TW. 1972 90 4a 10.000 8.000 0.0 0.70 0.26 0.00 0.01 0.12 0.18 to" Ity slapped 2.60 Maso late a am r o. Ic t elsme (sell, asIdes C lemtcal Pertllitttr Plet il-amod 1976 461 _mtea 2S.000 26.000 *.1 4.46 8.92 0.260 0.41 0.39 st 1.00 RleIlJ sad rsInftere bicasboinateS C_me FPerjy TYE 1670 24O essa 10.000 18.000 0.9 0.86 0.84 0.19 0.17 0.66 0.03, persist steely d 1.S0 Re11ld _d risitere e4rsbepms. t4eblasrVy te rsol lectis 196 4t le" predees - 72 o.a2 0.20 0.40 0.000 0.02 0.18 0.02 aoltepped 0.S0 Rebuild sorlalupe s tl am YAalal WdITY. e Foo A DtlI Po_ 4 Plee pwie ol"ti lw ezS l floor l , . D 9.1t t 8 .0D O.Jt t 2.40 O.OS tl rtlFllt - 6eoptlU d . 11,10 dobo t a- equipment. thIll-utrpe Ca. ste-ered t16 6 -o 0.80 3.00 0.1810 0.60 2.L70 prtaily slapped 0.66 R1laferce sadrtplt 1. Fre, a.. _ es" In 196. 2. tadirsct less s Ir tems of e "lu Alee (calulsed basd eq lsh period freo Oct. 19. 1969 Io Ibrcd 16. 1990. but tor eb.) Il.l-purpe Co.. It "a as to ead tovs. 199. S. All II.. stlastd cosb sad ples fo recan*tructir Pre proposed ornly by sabel Prefectur. Nonni or by Yopus Cemo*. Oabel Pbresac. - 30 - tebt 2 past 1 of 3 NORTH CHINA EARTHOUAxE RECONSTRUCTION PgROJECT Village Reconstruction Program Planning and Design Criteria The Village Reconstruction Program (VRP) will be carried out as follows: 1. Village Selection: - Under the leadership of their respective Provincial and Prefectural authorities the County authorities will manage the VRP. - On the basis of the official damage assessments carried out to date the counties will select a list of priority villages, approximately 80 in Shanxi s Yangbei Prefecture and 70 in Hebei's Yangyuan County. Villages in MM Zones VI, VII, and VIII would receive top priority. The balance should be selected from the most heavily damaged villages in NM Zone V. - The final list of villages included in VRP should be provided to the Association by December 31, 1899. 2. illag Plans: - Village Reconstruction Plans will be prepared for each village included in the program. The plans may be prepared in two or more batches. Each plan will be based on (i) a detailed damage inspection of the buildings affected in accordance with State earthquake damage inspection pro- cedures and standards (MOC Standard TJ23-77), (ii) socio-economic information for the village and families concerned, and (iii) the level of public services available to the village concerned. - The plans would indicate in detail the scope (including housing, public building works and infrastructure works and equipment), costs and financing plan (including individual family subiowa arrangements) of the proposed VRP, together with, in the case of relocation plans, details of the resettlement costs and arrangements. - Plans should indicate functional responsibilities and implementation arrangements including materials supplies and procurement plans. 3. HousiLng. All families in the villages concerned would have at least two rooms of permanent accommodation available to them at the end of the program. Villagers will be informed of the various building reconstruction, repair and reinforcement options available under the program, including the costs, material and labour requirements, financing terms and obligations. At least three options for new dwellings would be offered including those presented in Table 1 below. The option selected by the family concerned should be affordable and annual repayments would not exceed 25% of the family's annual income, subject to the following criteria: -31- Attab-nz . Pas 2Ofss - Repair and reinforcement would be a first option but would be limited to those dwelling units that require less than about 50% of the roof and bearing walls to be rebuilt. Units requiring less than about 10% rebuilding would not be included in the program. - New dwelling units provided under the program should not exceed three rooms per family, subject to the above mentioned affordability criteria. - House furnishings, and repair and reconstruction of animal stables and *talls would not be eligible for funding under the program. Table 1 - Bom Uepla2amt and Repalr Standards ---------------------------------------------__-----------_----------------------------------------- Floor Coast 2 Afford- Type Description and materials area (m2) (YIm2) Labour abilUty'a Replacement dwelling rooms: AA2 Concrete framed, adobe block walls, timber purlin and 21.5 159 48X 400 rafter roof AAS Wood framd, masonry walls, timber trues roof 21.5 194 542 488 831 Adobe vault with reinforced thin ahell l1ner 21.5 120 602 900 - Repaired and renforce dwelling room 21.5 49 40X 120 Replaement public rooms: School Concretelw>od framed, masonry walls, timber truss roof 7 166-173 n/- Clinic Conretelhsood framed, masonry wlls, timber trus roof 128 217 n/& store Coneretel"wod framd, maonry walls, tLmber truss roof 120 207 anJ OffLce Conoretelvood framed masonry walls, titber truss roof 21 200-500 nl- Agropro- Concretelwood framed, msonry walls, timber truss roof 117 200 nJ- cessin.g - Repaired and reinforced publLe rooms 21 21 nla Na Affordability criteria based on minimum annual income requIred per apita for a famlly of four persons In order to servcee repayments over 10 years of principal and IZ p.a. nominal interest on borrowing for 60X of the costs of two room, wher such repayments would not ence"d 25X of famlly 8ross income 4. Basettlement. In cases of heavy damage and adverse location relocation of the village concerned, in whole or in part, may be justified. Adoption of a relocation option would satisfy the following criteria: - 90% of the dwellings and public buildings should be eligible for recon- struction - the villagers concerned must be in full agreement to move to the new site - the proposed site should be close to the villagers' fields, and should have convenient access to water supply, power and telecommunications - 32 - 6"zsnImnS.2A Page 3 of 5 - the proposed site must be geologically safe and free of environmental hazards - the relocation costs should be financially feasible including allowance for land requisition, three years' agricultural production losses, and removal of the families and their goods. 5. Public Buildings. The Village Plan should indicate the scope, costs and financing plan and implementation arrangements for public building reconstruction. Criteria for replacement and repair of public buildings are the same as for housing stated in Para 3 above. In addition: - New buildings should conform to State planning, design standards. - Furnishing and equipment of new buildings and repaired buildings shall be in accordance with the relevant State standards. 6. Infrastructure. The Village Plan should indicate the scope, cost, financing plan and implementation arrangements for public infrastructure to be included in the program (e.g. roads, drainage, sanitation, water supply, power, telecommunications and public address systems, and irrigation). Investments in new revenue earning infrastructure such as wells and power supplies should be financially viable taking into consideration the relevant operating costs, debt service, revenues and available operating subsidies based on medium term demand forecasts. 7. Earthguake Resilience. New building plans, private and public, will be reviewed by the appropriate authorities to ensure that they conform to the State Building Code and are adequately earthquase resistant. Existing houses under repair should be reinforced to achieve an adequate earthquake resili- ence. Attachmeat 2b NORTH CHINA EARTHQUAKE RECONSTRUCTION PROJECT Schematic Layout of Traditional Adobe Vault Rural House PROPOSED REINFORCED ADOBE VAULT TYPICAL HOUSE LAYOUT .,~~~~~~~~&a W ALL. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~FCD- _R_ . __ ~ t VA A ; jo c . 17 $ s 65flnr Ec. _ I *~~~~~9A i- Kgtj it w .. Jrb.... 4 Z rlr-l ' t Lw .* _M FRN _ _ .O l gsef;,o832315RY88 e g}8QB82Sa9N ltP 11B ¢t3;t;13|15 P : £~~ ~~~~~~ -x 3 2 "ree"ot ee"eze eesees*oes U. U ~ ~ ~ . .... t e - i bi bi iifie6|e k s mflraXa |aIMilti eee I X | lllllW @..&..*.***.4,b e sse*e **MS.'O xbwo *^** 0 e@*MSS0-"*.d e _ tlOe0*oee a. *aa 0- ;:;be; a* . * . 6 4 ; 5 - --- ee -S-- -o.- -o- a * os-- -- - - - - -e-- - - -- ---------- -* - - a-1P . . " as. a. a . Isopip tii8|gEleiEg~~~p IO is i t 1 IOE I leaxa . ,.". ^ .......... t"b. - , .... b ; " "s w . . 40 > t~~~~~~r ii_'||oooo ~~~0 u ~ ~ ~ ~~0 U t; eg e g i. "e j-'t't " i oooo-Si- Is- - - - - i il tol ~ ~ - -3oX IG I I I.S iI- sl NORTH CHINA EARTHQUAKE RECONSTRUCTION PROJECT Illustrative Organization Charts 0, HEBEI PROVINCE YANGYUAN COUNlY I5 Fi anc MMia 9CilFBS~~wea _ _ CowI18al 118ga |IelJ l l l _ _~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~w~64 NORTH CHINA EARTHQUAKE RECONSTRUCTION PROJECT Organization Charts of Prolect Implementation Offices YANG YUAN.HEDE PRVNCE YANDEP RECR, SHAI PROVINCE Gosi~p hY Pt k L3 J i r ftjw Om" Wags Level P&nG w &,,3 Design A e Thdmloal Funds 3 ThwnahIpLW 'M 3 '3 153 1 m- I er~~~~~~~I badse74b Attachment 3c (Page 1 of 4) NORTH CHINA EARTHQUAKE RECONSTRUCTION PROJECT Summary of Implementation Arrangements ---------------------------_---------- KEY STEP RESPONSIBILITY RDMRKS Identification of County Government Respective county governments have Inspected the affected areaF damaged villages and prepared a list of villages that need reconstruction assistance. List of villages to be included In this project to be finalized by 12/89. Fonmulation of Village Reconsttuction Program --------------------------------------------- Preparation of plan County Governmant Each county has established a plumnng and design (tecbnical) group to prepare the village rec-ristruction program. Similar groups have been established at the township and village level. In Hebei province, the village team have been asked to prepare a consolidated county level plan. In Shauzi province, the technical teams in the four counties will prepare their a respective plans vie. due consultation and Involvement of the township and village local teams. Review of county Prefecture Similar steps as at county level. Prefecture prepares a proposal and consolidated proposal if more than one county Involved (Shanxi) preparation of for submission to the provincial governor. prefecture plan Approval of the Province Pronviclal governor approves the proposal either through Reconstruction establishment of a coordinating cosmittee or In a review meeting Program of all concerned departments. HOF and SPC Since there is World Bank financing, MOP and SPC also need to approve the proposed reconstruction program. Attachment 3c (Page 2 of 4) NORTH CHINA EARTHQUAKE RECONSTRUCTION PROJECT Summary of Implemaentation Arrangements ------------_--------_----.---.------- KEY STEP UESPONSIL.. 'TY REMARXS Implementation Overall Coordination Prefecture (Shanxi) Each province has established a project management office under County (Hebei) the leadership of the Cormissioner of Yanbei Prefecture and the First Vice-Governor of Yangyuan County respectively. These offices will have overall management responsibility. Each office will be assisted by four already-established groups: technical supervision, funds management, material supply and construction. Counties, townships and villages Iould have a similar set-up for implementation of the works in their areas. Material Procurement Prefecture (Shan i) Based on the approved county program, the head of the project County (Hebei) management office will issue instructions (a signed contract) to the material supply grGup for the various materials required. Quantities, specifications and target prices (based on State fixed prices for certain materials) are stipulated. i) For scarce construction materials not readily available within the county (timber, steel) the material supply group would dispatch procurement teams to potential markets to seek at least five written quotations and submit recommendations to the project management office head for approval. (Under existing procedures, the leader of the material supply group is authorized to sign supply contracts, but in this project it is proposed that the group leader's recommendation be submitted to the next line superior for approval.) Upon approval, the material supply group leader would sign the contract with the selected supplier and deposit the contract amount in a bank account to be released according to the agreed supply schedule. Timber, steel and glass are to be delivered to a central point in the county. Other materials would be shipped directly to the concerned villages. Li) For materials readily available within the county (bricks, cement, tile, stone, lime, etc.) current practice is to seek about 10 quotations. The material supply group leader would sign a contract with the lowest bidder. It is proposed that for the large quantities involved, procurement of these materials should be through local competitive bidding. Attachment 3c (Page 3 of 4) NORTH CHINA EARTHQUAKE RKECONSTRUCTION PROJECT Suimary of Implementation Arrangements ---_--------------------------------_- KEY STEP RESPONSIBILITY RENARKS Civil Works House construction Village leader Reconstruction of houses will be undertaken through force account in accordance with the approved village reconstruction program. Part of materials (timber, steel and cement) are to be provided by the county. Village material supply team vould arran for purchase or production of local materials (bricks). Village leader to select the contractor through bidding among at least five construction units in the vicinity. Construction to be undertaken through a joint arrangement between the village labor force and the selected construction unit, under a signed a contract between the village leader and the county chief. Public Facilities Respective head of School principal, with assistance of county education commission the facility i.e., staff, to develop reconstruction plan which would be part of the school principal county reconstruction program. Principal to select a construction unit after competitive bidding procedures similar (A similar to those for housing reconstruction. School equipment would be procedure would procured at prefecture or county level (Hebei) through prudent apply for other shopping with a least (3) written quotations against a standard public facilities.) specification. Production Affected enterprise Respective enterprise head to undertake repairsIrehabilitation Enterprises work in accordance with the approved plan. Collection of Loan Counties Households to pay to their respective counties annually, in Payments cash, at the time of tax collection (after fall harvest). Enterprises to repay the county on a monthly basis. Attachment 3c (Page 4 of 4) NORTH CHINA EARTHQUAKE RECONSTRUCTION PROJECT Summary of Implementation Arrangements -------------------------------------- KEY STEP RESPONSIBILITY REMARKS Disbursements Certification of County Construction manager of the vlllage (or other concerned entity) works completed will prepare the certificate of works completed which would be endorsed by the respective township and county level officials. Upon approval of these bills, the finance group in the respective counties would release funds to the bank designated by the construction unit or credit depot of the village for release to farmers. Disbursement Prefecture (Shanxi) Respective county finance team would prepare disbursement applications County (Hebei) applications for approval by prefecturelcounty head. These applications would be forwarded to MOF through the respective provincial finance bureaus. Management of the MOF Special Account Progress Reporting __________________ Quarterly Progress Prefecture (Shanxi) Technical team in each county to prepare a quarterly progress County (Hebei) report according to an agreed format. Yanbei prefecture to prepare a consolidated progress report. PRogress reports to be sent to concerned provinces, MOT and the World Bank. Atebmnt . NM CHE OWIt W*DAUE STffW==I PROJECi Ioplesntatlon Chart AcOivitlee 1990 1990 199 1991 Doe Jan Feb Nar Apr NW Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct New Doe Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Au Sep Get Nw Doc M Prject Proing * Iii NagbSlOn.% I. II II i"ottam lef U Pf.c lvene s I _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ =_ __ __ _ __ _ _ _ _ 180 VILLA 61WTMIXN PRIW () lablil.h leadiag Gros o 6 cowties I- 5 Adobe Prttp t_lf Plannnlg - 1rop I Wilage". (10) I-> opil age cu ontal longemne wolapleentaio-Ooplilae.(1)1 ________ stpwllow Owr" o"- t DIP&B4TATIOP - gollage Pops am-~ Vlllge 1= 14 or Ame I (VA) inglesentteion ---- Ordrl to ribi e f Award contrac MAU)) Celiver eaterial. for MAU o,* Are 2 Aclivlilee (repeal VAI pocee.) I Villgas, l0 activilti es MWCLIN" - DVt1 Plan - Grp 1 villega. (10)I I - VtIup1 1alaIb -rup ilaa I 1 I t p----- _ _ 0e ortamet - GuIage Prome1 I nil 8-20 lviXts ~ ~ ~~~~ ~ ~ ~~I 'lt I iI Pllrowmt - Group 2 IIloge. " u I u I Proocrean - Grupiil boa | Prure Cuat l -a. eVuc 8r Ma-erial. I I I I C. Wn " z tt I _I-_ S6T xI5 Re1abi I iatn Cone| Plennn C tr Procuremnt ZCplesentation i bttiXUen~~~ ~~ Ie" i Il ii I _ _t YMO agEn-cym rparedneeo plan -- - Pprrennrr4 X I l__> ~I i> I i i I i______ I~ rpar areouren une I _____ I I oprte antna esi dtagts I I'------ Ps omi Z"I = in#) | Prouemen (Int'l ohopin)I I> 0live* a ir mn Ii I-11i Teig tand callibratio |_ Trai ning ti date I i -11 - 43 - Attachment 46 NORTH CHINA URTA REKCOSTCON POJECT Project, Launch Actlon Timetable Action Reeponsiblity Tars" De" 1. Teting of prototype SP/YP/KOC 02/29/90 re nforcd adobe house 2. Village reconstruction plans:l/ Respective counties concerne (a) In-situ Housing - Preparation Vi I lo/Town htp / Counties 02/28/90 - Approval Counties/Prefectures 04/80/90 (b) Schools and clinics - Preparation School principel/ clinlc head 04/80/90 - Approvol Countles/Prefecture ) Snfrastructur - prparation County Bureaus concerned 04/80/90 - Approvel Counties 8. Relocation - Informtion Counties 01/81/10 - Preparation VI I lnag/Townehips/ OB/81/90 Counties - Approval Counties 04/80/90 4. Enterprises Rehabil tation - Prparations Enterprise concerned 01/15/90 - Approvals Counties 01/81/90 S. Preparation of schedules and County Materials Part 1 02/28/90 specifications for materials Supply Purue Part 2 04/80/90 to be supplied to villoges 6. Procuremnt of Materials to County Mtrials Part 1 06/81/90 be supplied to villoae Supply Bureau Part 2 07/81/90 7. Establsh constructlon Villoge/townships Part 1 01/81/90 mnagement teams at concerned Part 2 08/81/90 townships/village level S. Selection of construction subcontractors through local competition for: - Dwelling repe rs/ Village leader Prt 1 05/81/90 reconstruction ) - Public buildings repair/ Local h ead Part 2 07/81/90 recon ) - Infrostructure County Bureau concerned - Site preparation and County 07/81/90 development (relocated vIllagle 9. Detailed proposals and TOR SSO/IIOD 08/81/90 for National Subproject i VIlIisge reconstruction program wi l be crried out In two phase. Dates giVon refer to first phase. - 44- Attcebment 44 rag 1 of 2 NORTH CHIII E4RTN1UAK6 RECONSRRUTON PROJECT KIy lonitorlng ndieators - By County Plannd Actul X Aralsd Reised Copletion Comletion StatusRrk 1. DATONG COUNT e VIl logo 14 - Additlor*l e Dweling Room - Totl 81,820 - D_*ged (as) 26,000 - Recontruetion 15,080 09/80/90 Type M2 (201) 8,000 09/01/80 Type AAS () 9,080 08/80/90 Type -1 (2=1) 8,000 09/01/90 - RohabilIltatin 8,170 08/15/90 Tpe RCC *e 1I (75) 6,10 07/15/90 Typ Shed Roof (253) 2,040 07/81/90 o Public Room - Total 1,590 - Damng9d (463) 760 - Reconstruction (111) 170 08/01/90 - Rehebabi tt (873) 590 09/15/90 * VII*ae Infrastructure 00/01/90 * VilaI*e Enterprise 06/01/90 2. GU1A4N COUIITY 0 VI I ae 6 - Additional o Dwelling Rooms - Total 4,179 - Damaogd (451) 1,80 - Reconstruction 640 06/15/90 Typo AA2 (20) 170 07/80/90 Type AM (03) 500 07/80/90 Typo BB1 (201) 170 07/01/80 - Rehabilitation ego 07/15/90 RCC Shell (753) 470 07/01/90 Shed Roof (259) 1SO 07/01/90 o Public Rooms - Totsl 6o0 - DaMagOd (253) 160 08/80/90 - Reconstruction (53) 80 06/15/90 - Rehabilitation (201) 180 06/80/90 o Village Infrastructure 08/80/90 o Village Enterprise. 08/0/80 - 45 Attachment 4e Page 2 of 2 NRT Cmt EARTHUME RECONSTOII PROECT Kay Monitoring Indcators - By County Planned Actta IX Appraisd Revisd Comletion COpletion Status/Rmarks S. HUANOIA COUMT e VlI I_tw 9 - Addttional Dell I Ing Room - Total 19,710 - Dmd 7,000 - Reconstruction 5,910 00/01/90 Type IA2 (20) l,lSo 09/01/00 Type LA" (GM 8,650 09/01190 TYp 951 (20) 1,160 06/15/90 -Rabl I Itation 56,20 09/01/90 RCC Sh ll -6 4,140 OS/01/90 Shad Roof 12,500 06/01/00 o Public Rooms - Total 1,921 07/15/90 - D amagd 8. - Reconftrubtion (73) 180 07/15/90 = Rehablitation (273) 520 07/15/90 o VIlla9I Infrastructure 06/15/90 o Village Enterprise 09/15/90 4. YANGAO COUNTY e Vilaleo 14 - Additional o Ow llIng Room - Total 87,757 - Damaged a0,000 - Reconstructien 16,240 10/15/90 Type AA2 (20g) 8,260 10/01/90 Type "S (OM5) 9,T40 10/15/90 Type 981 (205) 8,250 10/01/90 - Rehabiltation 10,950 RCC Shell (753 6,210 09/00/00 Shad Roof (253 2,740 09/80/90 o Publitc Roome - Total 1.950 - Damagd 449 - Reconstruction (63) 100 09/15/90 - Rehabilitation (205) $40 09/15/90 o VII lago Iafrastructure 06/81/90 o VIllage Enterprises 06/81/00 - 46 - Attachment 5 Page 1 of 4 NORTH CHINA EARTHQUARE tECONSTRUCTION PROJECT Procurement and Disbursement Arrangements Procurement 1. ShAn i and Hebei Subprolects. The works to be carried out fall into four main categories: (a) village reconstruction which is chiefly private housing works that will be largely carried out by force account, (b) village public building reconstruction that will be carried out mainly by contractors (local construction units); (c) county-level public infrastructure that will be carried out by means of a mixture of contracting and force account, and (d) enterprise rehabilitatioa which will be carried out by contractors. In most cases the materials would be procured separately from civil works. Some materials (not exceeding 30S of the total value of the works) would be procured centrally by the Prefectures and Counties concerned and supplied to the villages in accordance with the Village Reconstruction Plan or to the contractors concerned with public buildings and infrastructure construction. The procurement arrangements illustrated in the Table below can be summarized as follows: (a) Private HousinR. Under the village reconstruction program works would be carried out in about 150 villages and would mainly include small scale private house building construction and repair totalling about RM1107 ($22.8). Since residents would be closely involved through self-help in the work related to their homes and community facilities, each large village would be directly responsible to the County for management of the works to be carried out in accor- dance with an agreed Village Reconstruction Plan and Schedule, and would implement these with its own workforce and vith subcontractors and suppliers as necessary in accordance with local practices. Contracts would be mainly small, averaging less than RMB700,000 (about $180,000 e- quivalent) and ranging in value from R1B77,000 ($20,000 equivalent) to RMB4 ($1.1). In the case of small villages the respective supervising township would take the role of general contractor responsible for a group of villages. The County authorities would need for the general contractor concerned and would be responsible for preparation and approval of the village plans as well as guidance and supervision of the works. Village Plan contracts exceeding $500,000 in value (1R1B.85) would be subject to prior review by the Association. The County would disburse the funds required by the Village Plan (including the su- bsidiary loan disbursements) in accordance with a schedule of progress payments that would provide (i) an advance of 302 of the estimated cost of the works, (ii) interim payments of 202 (based on certified progress) at monthly intervals up to a maximum of 80 and (iii) a final payment identical to the outstanding balance required based on the value of actual works completed. - 47 - Attachment 5 Page 2 of 4 (b) Village Public Buildings and Infrastructure. It is expected that civil works contracts totalling about RMB23 ($6 equivalent) for site preparation, buildings and infrastructure would be awarded through competitiim among local construction units. Contracts would be procured and supervised by the County on behalf of the beneficiary villages. Payments would include a SOX advance and interim payments based on the certified amount of work completed satisfactorily. Small works (e.g. repairs) may be carried out by force account. (c) CountX infrastructure consists of small irrigation and water supply works, rural electrification works, education facilities and health facilities totalling about RMB18 ($4.9) in value in accordance with plans prepared the respective line departments and approved by the County. These works would be carried out by force account in most cases or, in the case of larger works exceeding RMB2, procured through local competitive bidding among local construction units. (d) Enterprise rehabilitation totalling about RMB3.5 ($0.9) would be carried out in about one dozen enterprises by local contractors procured through prudent shopping consistent with normal caomercial practices. Subsidiary loans would be made by the County to the enterpr- ises for the expenditures concerned. (e) Construction Materials. Key materials of value not exceed- ing 302 of the estimated Village Reconstruction Program cost will be obtained by Yanbei prefecture and Yangyuay County and provided to the villages and contractors engaged in the program. Materials available under the State Plan (State quotas at fixed prices) would be purchased directly. Materials not available under the State Plan will be pur- chased in the open market as follows: (i) Timber and steel will be procured centrally for the two provincial subprojects (by Yangbei Prefecture for the Shanxi Subproject and Yangyuan County for the Hebei Project). The materials purchasing units of the authorities concerned will seek a minimum of five written quotations from among their existing suppliers. The respective heads of the purchasing units would evaluate these quotations and make award recomnendations to their respective project leaderships. (ii) Other materials (e.g. cement, bricks, stone, sand, lime, etc) would be procured or manufactured locally within the respec- tive counties by the villages concerned. Vhere economies of scale may be present (e.g. cement) the county level may procure such materials. In such cases, procurement would be done through competition among various suppliers in the county and written offers would be obtained. (f) Goods. Procurement of goods, furnishings and equipment for schools, clinics and other public buildings would be carried out in accordance with local procurement procedures. - 48 - Attachment 5 Page 3 of 4 2. Village Plans and civil works contracts exceeding US$500,000 and goods contracts exceeding $50,000 in value would be subject to prior review by the Association. Documentation relating to all awarded contracts and bid evaluations would be retained by the executing agencies and random reviews of such contracts would be made from time to time by the Association during supervision of the project. Table 1 Procurement Arrangements Sutmary (US$ million)l/ -------------------------------------------------------------__------------ International Force Local Category Shopping account procedures Other Total …----------------------------------------------------------------__---_---- Civil works 10.5 30.3 0.00 40.8 (6.9) (20.0) (0.00) (26.9) Goods and 2.0 0.94 0.00 0.00 3.4 Equipment (2.0) 0.62) (0.00) (0.00) (2.6) Consultants, Training and 0.50 0.50 Technical (0.50) (0.50) Assistance Land 0.6 0.6 (0.00) (0.00) Total 2.0 11.4 30.8 45.3 (2.0) (7.5) (20.0) (0.5) (30.0) --------------------------------_-------------------------------__--------- Note: Amounts in parentheses are disbursements from the credit proceeds. 11 table 1 Procuremnt Arrangemnts (USS millIon) atnernational fore Locat Category Shopping account procdure. Other Total Village reconstruction 0.88 19.61 0.00 26.1 (4.85) (12.67) (0.00) (17.2) Construction nrterials 0.00 9.54 0.00 9.5 (0.00) (6.27) (0.00) (0.2) Fquipmet 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.0 (0.62) (0.00) (0.00) (0.0) County tnfrastructur 8.80 0.00 0.00 8.9 (2.U6) (0.00) (0.00) (2.6) Land 0.co 0.00 0.88 0.6 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.0) Enterpris rdubt lotion 0.00 1.26 0.00 1.2 (0.00) (0.88) (0.00) (0.8) Nrtlon l Component 2.00 0.00 0.50 8.00 8.00 (2.00) (0.00) (0.50) (2.50) (2.60) Total 11.47 80.80 0.68 45.8 (7.52) (19.97) (0.60) (80.00) Note: Amount In paronthese are disbu_ursea frem the credit proeedo. ToeI a may not ad because of rounding. - 49 - Attachment 5 Page 4 of 4 Disbursement Arrangements 3. The project would be implemented over two years with disbursements extending over three, closing on December 31, 1992. The proceeds of the credit would be disbursed against eligible expenditures as follows: (a) 65Z of expenditures on civil works undertaken by force account and local contractors; (b) 652 of expenditures for locally procured goods, materials, equipment and furnishings; (c) 1002 of foreign costs for communications and information technology and scientific equipment or 652 of ex-factory costs of locally procured equipment; (d) 1002 of expenditures for technical assistance and training (see Table 2). A Special Account would be established in MOF. The account would be maintained in US$ and an initial disbursement of $4 million would be made (equivalent to estimated average disbursement over a four month period). Payments from the Special Account would be made in Renminbi. At the initiative of the MOP replenishments of the Special Account would be made monthly or whenever the balance reaches 502 of the initial deposit amount, vhichever occurs first. Replenishments would be based on Statement of Expenditure (SOE) withdrawal procedures satisfactory to the Association. Supporting documentation for the SOEs would be maintained by the Project Office. Due to the urgency of the reconstruction works these would commence prior to loan signing and the Association would retroactively finance eligible expenditures incurred after December 15, 1989 up to a maximum of ITS$4 million. Table 2 - Disbursement Arrangements ---------------------------------------------------__----_------- _em Amount Percentage of expenditures (US$ m) to be financed from credit proceeds Civil works: Shanxi 14.8 65Z of local expenditures Hebei 4.00 652 of local expenditures Construction Materials: Shanxi 6.4 652 of local expenditures Hebei 1.70 652 of local expenditures Goodss Shanxi 0.3 652 of local expenditures Hebei 0.30 652 of local expenditures SSB 1.9 1002 of foreign expenditures Technical assist. 0.1 1002 Unallocated 0.5 Total 30.0 …- - - - - 50 - Attachment 6 Page 1 of 5 CHINA NORTH CHINA __RTHQUAKE RECONSTRUCTION PROJECT SupDort for Earthquake Prediction Outline Work Program and Budaet 11 1. The proposed technical assistance and institutional development com- ponent for earthquake prediction and mitigation efforts in China supports China's program under the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (tIDNDR). Chinese scientists predict a 12-15 year period of higher seismic intensity, and have identified areas of particularly high likelihood of earth- quakes. namely: (a) the Capital Circle"--Beijing, the areas to the northwest (Yanqing County, northern Hebei Province, northern Shanxi province and south- cen_ral Inner Mongolia) and south (Shandong) and Tianjin; (b) the juncture area of Sichuan and Yunnan Province, including the cities of Chengdu and Yunnan; (c) Ningxia and Gansu; and (d) the far western area of Xinjiang Autonomous Region Although the land area covered in Xinjiang is considerable, it is largely uninhabited. The first two zones contain large numbers of people, important transport and energy infrastructure and considerable economic assets; hence it is important to be able to predict earthquakes with a higher degree of accuracy than is currently possible. It is also important to assess the vulnerability of these zones to earthquakes, in order to reduce the loss of life and property in an earthquake by cost-effective seismic strengthening of existing life-line structures and dwellings and by preparing for efficient relief and reconstruction once an earthquake disaster occurs. 2. Accordingly, the national component would enhance SSB's capacity to predict strong earthquakes, using its national network of seismic monitoring stations and drawing on SSB's close working relationships with its counter- parts, the provincial and regional seismological bureaus. The monitoring and comaunications equipment would also allow SSB to contribute more effectively to post-earthquake relief and recovery operations by feeding better informa- tion to other relevant bodies charged with the short- and medium-term earth- quake response. 1/ Based on revised proposal by SS8, dated December 12, 1989, technical meetings held December 12 and 13, 1989, and mission estimateslinput. - 51 - Attachment 6 Page 2 of 5 State Seismological Bureau S. The objective of support to SS8 would be to improve SSB's ability to predict earthquake by upgrading its computer, communications and monitoring network. This would allow the more rapid transmission of seismic data from the existing network of over 1,000 sensing stations to SSB's Beijing head- quarters, for input into SSBs major tool for earthquake prediction, the com- puter-assisted Expert System for Comprehensive Earthquake Prediction (ESCEP), which was put into operation in late 1988. It operates on a VAX 7801750 system and peripheral equipment which receives digital data from automated stations and from analogue (voice and graphic) reports which reach SSB headquarters by microwave, fax, telephone and short-wave radio. The computer program is based on 400 rules of earthquake prediction, including seismological and other factors such as changes in color and temperature of groundwater, abnormal animal behavior, abnormal meteorological conditions such as drought, crustal deformation, gravity and geomagnetic measurements, resistivity, etc. Using the data received, the computer issues prediction reports which are interpreted by SSB staff in consultation with local and provincial seismological offices. 4. The system is only as good as the data it receives. SSB's existing network of monitoring stations only partially covers China's vast land area. Communications links are mixed and do not provide substantial real-time seismic data. The network is only partially digital, meaning that ESCEP must rely on slower and less accurate analog interpretations. Stations to collect important precursory information to supplement the accelerometer data are Insufficient, even in areas of higher seismic risk. SSB has accordingly prepared a multi-year program tot - upgr%de the quality of field data; - expand data coverage of such factors as gas emissions, changes in water mineral content, etc. which can improve the validity of geo- logical data as a predictive tool; - speed up transmission of this data to provincial bureaus and then to Beijing, by increasing reliance on digital collection and communica- tions equipment; and - improve communications between regional seismic observation posts In neighbouring areas, particularly those of higher seismic risk. SSB also proposes to improve its ability to take ground measurements in areas where indications for an imminent, serious earthquake are present, and measure strong ground motion after an earthquake as part of the relief and reconstruc- tion effort. 5. SSB's collection of seismic data also allows it to contribute to coordination of official response after an earthquake disasters moveable communications equipment would permit rapid and accurate transmission of not only post-earthquake geological conditions but also information on the economic, social and physical impact of the earthquake. This system would support efforts by national and provincial agencies to respond promptly to the disaster and direct the relief and rescue effort. The following table summarizes the SSB action program to be supported under the project. - 52 - . Attachment 6 Page 3 of 5 Clvil Two yeera lua±l. woerke lacrt itl ZtsmjLoction Forien Local La Lol o op. coa Notes is - 0oo* urS A. in8 NaadGUcuarter Selina Upgrailan stel lite oc_tm en 14 2 73 Table 1. Includs terreetrial dat- e _ipnt link, proteocl "olyzer aN pwi- theral-. B. Small equagat *efor existig s - - 18 Table 2. Main cost t real et eate lite grood eotlao atNoa,. GaulIIts chamols for re_l-time da" Shanghai Enh Rnd Chengd, trrnsmissien. C. Casitel Cirele Li (a) Roving Coinunlicticn Nl*eork 58 55 - 82 Table S. Combined with *art-ave radio e_muncatleon vehicular _etllit. c_.- aunication ystem Vl e llow repid end accurat t ren leion of e"oleic intor- _ation end dama _eaement in th quek. area. (b) VicraeiemIe Obtervetie, 91 25 _ U Table-. Al lloe on-the-spet *eigtic Analyste end Preoging *yatAm obervetion, *nlygir and pree aing Oftor en earthquake, to prvide basic d==-: f ee lz ueting the awb aIe trenda end te *lle geeterr coevrage of greound --3 ernatien tn high *aleelc rink *regr to improe accuracy of tremor location end d.tcotebility. Intandad prima rily for ee 1n loe heilacall Iactive gregg. ~ ~ ~ ~ a ref _f*. (e) Meblie Stroneti on bervaten 172 1S - 67 Table 7.1. After * lrge eerthqueke, Anelylel end Proee1on Systowe to carry cut field etreng-eetieo M_&- euremn and real-time da" proceeang, thereby etending the megutring ang of alregeimic o"ervetion end detemine the earthquake paramours more aocr- eely. Strng mtio aceleration records vITi provide ace_ balc da tafr poterCthut engineering declaim., thereby belping mitigate ear hazrde for future conatructln. (d) Reiono lNatwork of *el_- 120 - - 110 Table e. Hatting of oe a lrerp atrio l ne_ork. (tinn, rglon tS uPgrade precureor obseev- Dtong, Hebbet, telysun vetlon networks. to Improve accuray LUnfeng, ai"dn, han1, ofet 1c aenitoring and permit and Jaxiang) shoring of data that misht prnea an * rtquake. (e) Four Js to improe leogitics - 61 - Table 10 for tield Investietion Subtotal 104 z 842 0. Satel liIte Orod Station In Jinan go - 5 44 Enhbnce uefalneae of exiatin, inrml compled regional nework Ino ineog Province (Iroag" coverage in Caital Circle). OP vehicles and oter IWOll _qVipmnt "ch as goenrtore tht cn be procued lecally. For civil works associated with lnetetletion of n_ *qipment. 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