Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00005096 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT IDA-47370; IDA-57310 ON CREDITS IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 71.9 MILLION (US$105 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF SENEGAL FOR A SENEGAL: TRANSPORT AND URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT June 17, 2020 Transport Global Practice Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective April 30, 2020) Currency Unit = CFA Francs (XOF) XOF 603= US$1 US$ 1.37= SDR 1 FISCAL YEAR July 1 – June 30 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AFTU Urban Transport Financing Association (Association de Financement des Transports Urbains) AGEROUTE Road Management Agency (Agence des Travaux et de Gestion des Routes) AF Additional Financing BRT Bus Rapid Transit CAS Country Assistance Strategy CEREEQ Experimental Research Centre for Equipment Studies CETUD Dakar Urban Transport Council (Conseil Exécutif des Transports Urbains de Dakar) CGQA Air Quality Management Center CPF Country Partnership Framework CPS Country Partnership Strategy DDD Dakar Mass Transit Company (Dakar-Dem-Dik) DGI Infrastructure General Directorate DR Directorate of Roads (Direction des Routes) DTR Directorate of Road Transports (Direction des Transports Routiers) DTT Directorate of Land Transport EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return ESIA Environmental and Social Impact Assessment ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework FERA Autonomous Road Maintenance Fund (Fonds d’Entretien Routier Autonome) GBV Gender-based Violence GDA Greater Dakar Area GDP Gross Domestic Product GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism GoS Government of Senegal HDM Highway Development and Management Model HILM High-Intensity Labor-based Method ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report LPST Transport Sector Policy Letter M&E Monitoring and Evaluation NPV Net Present Value PAD Project Appraisal Document PATMUR Senegal Transport and Urban Mobility Project (Projet d’Appui au Transport et à la Mobilité Urbaine) PDO Project Development Objective PPP Public-Private Partnership PSE Emerging Senegal Plan (Plan Senegal Emergent) PST2 Second Transport Sector Program PTB Small Suburban Train (Petit Train de Banlieue) RAP Resettlement Action Plan RN1 Road National No 1 SIL Specific Investment Loan STEP Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement STPP Special Tax on Petroleum Products UMIP Urban Mobility Improvement Project Regional Vice President: Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Nathan M. Belete Regional Director: Riccardo Puliti Practice Manager: Aurelio Menendez Task Team Leader(s): Ndeye Anna Ba ICR Main Contributor: Papa Modou Ndiaye TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET ....................................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 5 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL .........................................................................................................5 II. OUTCOME .................................................................................................................... 13 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ............................................................................................................ 13 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ...................................................................................... 14 C. EFFICIENCY ........................................................................................................................... 23 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING .................................................................... 24 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) ............................................................................ 24 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 28 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ................................................................................... 28 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION ............................................................................. 28 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 29 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ............................................................ 29 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE ..................................................... 30 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ........................................................................................................... 32 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ....................................................................................... 34 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................. 35 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 37 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ......................... 48 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 50 ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ........................................................................................... 51 ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER, AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS .. 54 ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) ..................................................................... 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name P101415 SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT Country Financing Instrument Senegal Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency Agence des Travaux et de Gestion des Routes (AGEROUTE Ministere des Finances et du Budget Senegal), Coordination du PATMUR, Conseil Exécutif des Transports Urbains de Dakar (CETUD) Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The development objectives of this project are: (i) to improve effective road management and maintenance, both at national level and in urban areas; and (ii) to improve public urban transport in the Greater Dakar Area (GDA). Revised PDO - Page 1 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) FINANCING Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing 55,000,000 54,870,196 53,344,247 IDA-47370 50,000,000 50,000,000 49,552,615 IDA-57310 Total 105,000,000 104,870,196 102,896,862 Non-World Bank Financing 0 0 0 Borrower/Recipient 42,000,000 0 0 Total 42,000,000 0 0 Total Project Cost 147,000,000 104,870,196 102,896,862 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing 01-Jun-2010 29-Dec-2010 31-Oct-2013 30-Sep-2014 31-Dec-2019 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 24-Jun-2014 28.18 Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Reallocation between Disbursement Categories 20-Dec-2017 68.71 Reallocation between Disbursement Categories 26-Feb-2019 83.54 Reallocation between Disbursement Categories KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Modest Page 2 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 23-Nov-2010 Satisfactory Satisfactory .61 02 09-Jul-2011 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 4.94 03 13-May-2012 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 5.70 04 22-Apr-2013 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 7.74 Moderately 05 18-Sep-2013 Moderately Unsatisfactory 14.08 Unsatisfactory Moderately 06 22-Feb-2014 Moderately Satisfactory 19.83 Unsatisfactory 07 04-Jul-2014 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 28.18 08 09-Jan-2015 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 31.23 09 18-Nov-2015 Satisfactory Satisfactory 41.74 10 27-Jun-2016 Satisfactory Satisfactory 52.41 11 10-Apr-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 58.19 12 29-Nov-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 67.36 13 29-Jun-2018 Satisfactory Satisfactory 76.63 14 14-Jan-2019 Satisfactory Satisfactory 82.60 15 09-May-2019 Satisfactory Satisfactory 89.23 16 06-Nov-2019 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 98.60 17 23-Dec-2019 Satisfactory Satisfactory 100.88 Page 3 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) SECTORS AND THEMES Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%) Transportation 100 Public Administration - Transportation 19 Rural and Inter-Urban Roads 68 Railways 1 Other Transportation 12 Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Private Sector Development 43 Jobs 7 Job Creation 7 Regional Integration 36 Urban and Rural Development 56 Urban Development 28 Urban Infrastructure and Service Delivery 28 Rural Development 28 Rural Infrastructure and service delivery 28 ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Obiageli Katryn Ezekwesili Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Habib M. Fetini Nathan M. Belete Director: Inger Andersen Riccardo Puliti Practice Manager: Junaid Kamal Ahmad Aurelio Menendez Task Team Leader(s): Christian Diou Ndeye Anna Ba ICR Contributing Author: Papa Modou Ndiaye Page 4 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Context 1. At the time of appraisal in 2010, Senegal had a population of 12 million and had experienced average real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of about 5 percent since the mid-1990s. The share of the population below the national poverty line declined from 68 percent in 1994‒1995 to 51 percent in 2005‒2006. However, since the middle of the decade, a rapid succession of shocks, both external and internal, took a toll on the economy. The increase in oil prices starting in 2007 and the surge in food prices negatively affected Senegal’s open economy. The global financial crisis in 2008 combined with an internal financial crisis led to arrears equivalent to 3.75 percent of GDP. 2. At appraisal, transport accounted for approximately 4 percent of GDP. The main transport infrastructure networks Figure 1: Senegal Road Network included (a) 14,850 km of classified roads, of which about 5,500 km were paved; (b) 930 km of railway, including the track linking Dakar to the border of Mali (645 km); (c) the Port of Dakar, the main international seaport, as well as three secondary ports; and (d) Dakar international airport and 16 regional airports. Infrastructure and people were, and still are, largely concentrated in the west of the country with Dakar, the capital city, accounting for 25 percent of the total population and 80 percent of economic activity on less than 0.3 percent of the land space. 3. Since the early 2000s, significant actions were taken to reverse the deteriorating trend of the road network due to lack of maintenance. The road infrastructure, which was once in relatively good shape, had been deteriorating since the early 1990s. By 2010, owing to the successful implementation of the Second Transport Sector Program1 (PST2), 69 percent of the total length of paved roads in the country was in good or fair condition. Road maintenance of the classified network has traditionally been financed from a specific tax on gasoline and through a dedicated Road Fund within the Treasury. PST2 supported the Government’s efforts to increase the funds channeled to the Road Fund to cope with increasing maintenance demands. As a result, allocation to the Road Fund increased from US$12 million in 1998 to US$36 million in 2007. However, yearly mobilized funds for the National Road Agency (Agence des Travaux 1 https://hubs.worldbank.org/docs/imagebank/Pages/docProfile.aspx?nodeid=440666. Page 5 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) et de Gestion des Routes, AGEROUTE) in charge of implementing the maintenance programs were unpredictable and suffered from delays as it depended on the Ministry of Finance. Moreover, studies conducted under PST2 identified a US$400 million backlog in road rehabilitation needs, further confirming the need to improve fund management and increase its amount to an estimated US$80‒US$100 million per year for routine maintenance. In 2007, the Government decided to increase and secure funding for road maintenance through the creation of an Autonomous Road Maintenance Fund (Fonds d’Entretien Routier Autonome, FERA). FERA’s account was created at the Central Bank of West African States and was funded directly by oil distributors from taxes on gasoline.2 4. In the context of the implementation of the Plan Senegal Emergent (PSE)3 adopted in 2014, Senegal has opted for the development of quality transport infrastructure. Important infrastructures have been built, notably the extension of the motorway network, the construction of the new Diass international airport, the development of major roads in the interior of the country, and the launch of public transport projects. Although Senegal already has relatively well-developed infrastructure networks compared to some of its peers, major efforts are still needed to improve their management and increase the sector's overall productivity beyond the construction of new infrastructure. The relative inefficiency of the sector and its impacts are illustrated by indicators such as : (i) the cost of congestion, which was estimated at 2% of GDP in 1998 (World Bank study) and which has literally exploded with the growth of motorization and travel, particularly in Dakar, over the last 20 years; (ii) the logistics performance index (World Bank), which places Senegal 141st out of 160 countries; (iii) a transport matrix unbalanced in favor of roads and, increasingly, individual transport, and road infrastructure whose maintenance remains insufficient, causing an estimated additional cost of 4.6% of annual GDP. 5. Urban mobility in Senegal and especially in the Greater Dakar Area (GDA) was a key challenge for the Government, local authorities, and citizens. This was mainly due to the compounded effect of massive migration4 in the GDA, insufficient transport services supply, lack of intermodal coordination, and limited attention paid by the Government and local authorities to the sector’s needs. The following challenges were pervasive: inadequate road maintenance, poor traffic management methods, unbalanced spatial distribution of roads between districts, aging public transport vehicles, and inadequate regulation of urban transport services. By 2008, conditions had worsened, and time-lost-in-traffic increased by 30 percent; the market share of public transport declined by 13.5 percent; and the cost of externalities (traffic congestion, road accidents, and environmental) because of adverse impacts increased by 32 percent. 6. The governance of road maintenance follows the principle of separation of roles and responsibilities in accordance with Community directives, notably 11/2009/CM/UEMOA: (i) Planning and programming functions are carried out by AGEROUTE; (ii) Implementation is also the responsibility of AGEROUTE, which contracts to the private sector; and (iii) Financing is the responsibility of the Autonomous Road Maintenance Fund (FERA). The financing of maintenance, which has benefited from past reforms, is nevertheless still experiencing problems. FERA is financed by the Road Use Tax (TUR) with the same base as the tax on petroleum products (about 54 percent) and by an allocation from the Consolidated Investment Budget (BCI). The annual maintenance budget managed by FERA has been 2 Fees of XOF 70.9 per liter for premium fuel, XOF 63.9 per liter for gasoline, and XOF 31.9 per liter for gasoil. 3 https://www.sec.gouv.sn/dossiers/plan-s%C3%A9n%C3%A9gal-emergent-pse 4 The projections then indicated that the population of the GDA would grow at a 3 percent rate on average annually and would reach about 5 million inhabitants by 2025–2030. Page 6 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) growing steadily since the beginning of the 2000s but without reaching a level that allows maintaining the state of the road network. 7. Despite progress made under the Urban Mobility Improvement Project5 (UMIP), which closed in 2008, especially regarding traffic management and service delivery, there was still a real need for strengthening the urban transportation institutional framework and its related institutions, in particular the Dakar Urban Transport Council6 (Conseil Exécutif des Transports Urbains de Dakar, CETUD). The UMIP also demonstrated that the magnitude of the problems in the GDA deserved specific treatment, while the situation in other smaller cities could be better handled through more classic urban management techniques. For example, there were preliminary indications that the GDA needed a rapid mass transport system (for instance Bus Rapid Transit [BRT]) and an in-depth reorganization of the subsector/restructuring of the buses and minibuses network. Furthermore, the institutional capacity and expertise of CETUD to deal with both the maintenance of urban roads and the intermodal coordination emerged as real constraint to address. 8. The rationale for World Bank involvement was twofold. First, the World Bank wanted to ensure that it continued to support the Government in its effort to internalize the key institutional transformations initiated under previous World Bank-funded operations and their actual operationalization. Second, the World Bank also needed to leverage its added value and convening powers to bring together all partners, build on lessons and experiences from its previous involvements, and help sustain the sector through key results already achieved. For instance, through the previous transport operations7 the World Bank was instrumental in coordinating sector wide approaches (interurban and urban transport subsectors) and effectively took on the donors’ coordination role. Therefore, the World Bank’s comparative advantage was especially needed, to keep the momentum together with the other donors and sustain the positive results achieved regarding policies and institutional reforms, aimed at strengthening the efficiency of the transport sector management. 9. The project was aligned with the Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) (FY07‒FY11). The CAS supported the Government’s Strategy for National Social and Economic Development Strategy and the World Bank Group's twin goals of reducing poverty and increasing shared prosperity. The project was fully aligned with the first pillar of the CAS, which focused on growth, productivity, and wealth creation in the country. This pillar built on the Accelerated Growth Strategy and placed emphasis on rural and urban connectivity and mobility through roads, rail, and air infrastructure investments as well as port/logistics infrastructure and urban mass transport systems. Theory of Change (Results Chain) 10. The project was designed to improve road management and maintenance and public transport services in the GDA. The Project Appraisal Document (PAD) did not include a project-specific Theory of Change. However, the PAD did set out certain core components of the Results Chain such as outcomes, interim outcomes, and indicators, and as such a Theory of Change could be deducted for the Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR). 5 https://hubs.worldbank.org/docs/imagebank/pages/docprofile.aspx?nodeid=437691. 6 CETUD is a public institution created by Law 97-10 of February 24, 1997, its main objective is to organize, monitor, and develop urban mobility in Dakar and its agglomeration. 7 The Transport Sector Adjustment Program (PAST), PST2, and Urban Mobility Improvement Project (UMIP). Page 7 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) 11. The theory of change presented in figure 2 illustrates how the project’s activities and their outputs aimed at achieving the expected outcomes (PDO). The project activities were designed under the following assumptions: (i) strengthening the capacity of FERA in terms of financing for road maintenance would translate into improved road maintenance budget and that the GoS would allocate a higher percentage of the Special Tax on Petroleum Products (STPP) to road maintenance trusting that FERA can efficiently manage the funds; (ii) adoption of the GDA Urban Mobility Letter would result in an improved mobility in Dakar as the Government will start implementing the recommendations of the note. Figure 2. Theory of Change Note: CEREEQ = Experimental Research Centre for Equipment Studies; DTT = Directorate of Land Transport; DTR = Directorate of Road Transports (Direction des Transports Routiers); DGI = Infrastructure General Directorate; DR = Directorate of Roads (Direction des Routes); DDD = Dakar Mass Transit Company (Dakar-Dem-Dik); PTB = Small Suburban Train (Petit Train de Banlieue); RN1 = Route Nationale 1; HILM = High-Intensity Labor-based Method; IO= Intermediate Outcomes; PDO = Project Development Objective; LTO = Long-term Objective; MTO = Medium-term Objective. Page 8 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 12. The development objectives of this project, as stated in the PAD and the Financing Agreement, were (a) to improve effective road management and maintenance, both at national level and in urban areas, and (b) to improve public urban transport in the GDA. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 13. The PDOs remained the same throughout the project, but the targets of some indicators were changed with the additional financing (AF). At approval, the PDO and their main indicators were as shown in table 1. Table 1. Project Outcome Indicators at Approval (initial project) PDO Project Outcome Indicators To improve effective road 1. Reduced transport time on selected routes inside the Grandes Niayes management and maintenance, area (minutes) both at national level and in urban 2. Roads in good and fair conditions in the project zone (percent) areas 3. Direct project beneficiaries (number), of which female (percent) To improve public urban transport Policy Letter defined and adopted (yes/no) in the GDA Components 14. The project was organized into three components: • Component 1: Support to Interurban Road Infrastructure Development • Component 2: Capacity Building for the Development of Public Transport Services in the GDA • Component 3: Support to Implementation, Monitoring, and Evaluation. Table 2. Project Components at Approval Components Description Allocated Costs Actual Costs Component 1: 1.1: Institutional strengthening, including US$39 million, US$42.78 million Support to • Support to institutional framework for the financed by IDA Interurban Road definition of adequate road technical Infrastructure standards oversight US$4 million, Development • Strengthening of the Second-Generation financed by the GoS Road Fund (FERA) • Capacity Building at the DTT/actual DTR by o Support to modernizing vehicles and drivers’ license registration; o Dissemination of sector legal framework and regulations; and o Pilot program of road safety activities. • Capacity building, technical assistance, and training activities for AGEROUTE Senegal • Capacity building, technical assistance, and training activities for the DGI/actual DR Page 9 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) Components Description Allocated Costs Actual Costs 1.2: Investments • Road upgrading program in the Grandes Niayes region • Rehabilitation of RN1 between Rufisque and Bargny • Upgrading of Pompiers bus terminal Component 2: 2.1: Strengthening Entities to better manage US$7.8 million US$6.99 million Capacity Building travelling by mass transport financed by IDA for the • 2.1.1: Technical assistance to CETUD Development of • 2.1.2: Preparation and implementation US$38 financed by Public Transport of a strategic framework – DDD-PTB the GoS for fleet Services in the • 2.1.3: Preparation of a pilot Bus Rapid renewal of GDA Transit minibuses, but it • 2.1.4: Urban mobility improvement was not part of the operations in the cultural park Financing • 2.1.5: Support to air quality monitoring Agreement in Dakar • 2.1.6: Carrying out of mass transport- specific studies 2.2: Support to the development of the existing leasing scheme • 2.2.1: Capacity-building activities for AFTU • 2.2.2: Knowledge and support CGQA • 2.2.3: Training to operators, drivers, and other staff involved in minibus management • 2.2.4: Other specific studies Component 3: This component financed (a) equipment and Total of US$3.2 US$3.06 million Support to operating costs, and training for the two million financed by Implementation, agencies in charge of project implementation; (b) IDA Monitoring, and technical and financial audits; (c) support for Evaluation monitoring and evaluation (M&E), including surveys and beneficiary assessments; and (d) information, education, and communication for the project. Project Preparatory activities US$5 million US$0.51 million Preparation financed by IDA Advance Total US$55 million US$53.34 million financed by IDA Note: AFTU = Urban Transport Financing Association (Association de Financement des Transports Urbains); CGQA = Air Quality Management Center; GoS = Government of Senegal. Page 10 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets 15. Although the PDO remained the same throughout implementation, the project was restructured three times including an AF. Table 3. Restructuring Type of Date of approval Description of Changes Restructuring Level 2 June 24, 2014 Cancellation of some activities (studies and upgrading of the restructuring Fireman Bus Terminal - Gare des Pompiers), Reallocation of funds to different categories Extension of the closing date to December 31, 2015. Level 1 October 13, 2015 An AF of US$50 million to scale up activities to enhance the restructuring (AF) developmental impact of the initial project and the new closing date of the Financing Agreement was set to December 31, 2019. The AF expanded the scope to • Rehabilitate and construct a new 69 km road section from Lompoul to Gandiole; • Pave 30 km of urban roads through the ‘high intensity labor-based method’ (HILM) adopted; and • Support the detailed engineering studies of the pilot line of a BRT system. Level 2 February 26, 2019 This restructuring was to finance 100 percent of the restructuring remaining works contracts with IDA funds. As stated in the Financing Agreement for the AF, the Government was responsible for financing 25 percent of the works ’ contracts values. But less than one year before project closure, the required counterpart funds were not available due to the country’s constrained fiscal situation. The restructuring was necessary to ensure that these already contracted works were fully financed and completed before the closing date. In recent years, Senegal has embarked on a major investment program, which has had a major impact on the State's cash flow. One of the consequences has been the difficulty in meeting its counterpart obligations. Revised PDO Indicators 16. The AF, approved in 2015, included additional outcome indicators. The additional outcome indicators were (a) reduced transport time between Lompoul and Gandiole, (b) percentage of roads in good and fair condition in the project-affected area, and (c) number of direct beneficiaries (of which 50 percent are women). Page 11 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) Revised Components 17. There were revisions under Components 1 and 2 as the AF included new activities as follows: (a) rehabilitation/construction of a road section, from Lompoul to Gandiole (69 km); (b) paving of about 30 km of urban roads, using the HILM in the GDA; and (c) complementary studies for a pilot BRT system in Dakar. Table 4. Additional Activities under Each Component Financed by the AF Components Description of Changes Costs under AF Actual Costs Component 1: Support 1.2: Investments US$45 million, US$48 million to Interurban Road • Rehabilitation/construction of a road financed by IDA Infrastructure section, from Lompoul to Gandiole (69 Development km); • Paving of about 30 km of urban roads, using the HILM in the GDA Component 2: 2.1: Strengthening Entities to better US$4 million US$0.75 million Capacity building for manage travelling by mass transport financed by IDA the Development of 2.1.7: Complementary studies for a pilot Public Transport BRT system in Dakar. Services in the GDA Component 3: Support To support implementation of new US$1 million US$0.81 to Implementation, activities during the additional two years financed by IDA Monitoring, and of implementation Evaluation Total US$50 million US$49.55 million financed by IDA Other Changes 18. The AF also included a two-year extension of the closing date for the initial project, from December 31, 2015, to December 31, 2017. Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change 19. The changes in the parent project were needed for greater efficiency. The upgrading of the Pompiers interurban bus terminal activity was canceled because an interurban terminal (Gare des Baux Maraichers) was built and commissioned in Dakar Suburb (Pikine) by the GoS and upgrading this bus terminal was no longer a priority. The funds initially earmarked for this activity were reallocated to road works and allowed the construction of additional kilometers of roads in the Niayes. To ensure completion of works and other ongoing activities, it was necessary to extend the initial project closing date to December 31, 2017. 20. The AF allowed the construction of interurban roads and the paving of urban roads in GDA. However, difficulties in mobilizing counterpart funding slowed down the road works. The third restructuring therefore made it possible to finance 100 percent of the remaining works with IDA funds. This resulted in a reduced length of roads to be paved, from 30 km as planned to 26.7 km. Page 12 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) 21. All these changes had an impact on the Results Framework as shown in table 5. Table 5. Revisions to the Results Framework PDO Indicators Initial Project Changes Comments with AF PDO 1: To improve effective road management and No Change maintenance, both at a national level and in urban areas PDO 2: To improve public urban transport in the No change GDA New PDO indicators under AF Reduced transport time on selected itineraries Change To measure travel time from Lompoul to inside the Grandes Niayes area Gandiole which is the new road section financed by the AF Direct project beneficiaries, of which female Change To include additional beneficiaries along the new road Intermediate Outcome Indicators Comments Road rehabilitated by the project (km) Change To include the new road section between Lompoul and Gandiole Share of rural population with access to an all- Change To include the population affected by the season road new road section between Lompoul and Gandiole Number of additional beneficiaries of improved Change To consider the additional population accessibility benefiting from an improved accessibility because of the project II. OUTCOME A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs 22. The PDO are perfectly aligned with the current Country Partnership Framework (Report No. 143333-SN). The current CPF (FY20‒FY24) builds on the findings of the 2018 Systematic Country Diagnostic and the 2019 Country Private Sector Diagnostic, with three focus areas as follows: (a) building human capital to enhance productivity and ignite the demographic dividend, (b) boosting competitiveness and job creation through private sector-led growth, and (c) increasing resilience and sustainability in the context of growing risks. With the objective to improve road management and maintenance, which enhances connectivity, this operation contributes to both focus areas (b) and (c) above and is fully aligned with Pillar 2.1 of the current CPF, which is to “improve digital and physical connectivity at the national and regional levels”. The Transport Urban Mobility Project has addressed intercity and rural logistics challenges by improving transport between Dakar and Saint-Louis and serving the high-potential agriculture zone of Niayes. In addition, paving the urban roads in selected poorest suburbs in Dakar and making them all-season passable roads has improved mobility by preventing flooding during the rainy season and has improved the quality of life for the population. Page 13 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) 23. The PDOs continued to be highly consistent with the country’s growth and poverty reduction strategy elaborated in 2003. Both in its Poverty Reduction Strategy Document (2003‒2010) and in its Emerging Senegal Plan (Plan Senegal Emergent, PSE), from 2012 onward, transport plays an important role in the Government's economic policy. In the context of the implementation of the PSE, the Government has opted for the development of quality transport infrastructure. The PDOs remain relevant under Subcomponent 3.1 (access to economic infrastructure in value chains) of the PSE. Subcomponent 3.1 actions are (a) densification of production support infrastructures; (b) improvement of connectivity to corridors (logistical hub); (c) establishment of a structured exchange network for a more balanced development of the territory to promote the emergence of economic poles of agropastoral, mining, tourism, and fisheries activities; (d) connectivity of production areas through a network of rural roads and tracks; (e) development of an integrated multimodal transport network (road, air, rail, sea, and river); and (f) strengthening of infrastructure for integration into the sub regional and international market to boost trade with its main partners. Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating 24. Rating. The PDOs were relevant to the World Bank and country strategies throughout the project implementation and are still very relevant and aligned with the World Bank and borrower’s current strategies and thus the rating for relevance of PDO is High. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) 25. The project received an additional financing to expand the scope of the project, making it more ambitious. The original project objectives remain unchanged and thus a split rating will not be performed and the ICR will assess the entire project. Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome 26. To evaluate the achievement of the PDOs, each activity is analyzed to show how the indicators are realized in relation to the defined targets. As described in the sections earlier, the PDOs were (a) to improve effective road management and maintenance, both at national level and in urban areas and (b) to improve public urban transport in the GDA. PDO 1: To improve effective road management and maintenance, both at national level and in urban areas 27. This PDO is measured through three indicators: (i) Reduced transport time on selected routes inside the Grandes Niayes area (minutes); (ii) Roads in good and fair conditions in the project zone (percent); and (iii) Direct project beneficiaries (number), of which female (percent). In addition, capacity building of the agencies involved in the implementation of the project considerably improved the management of the road network. This PDO objective was too broad and the selected indicators presented some shortcomings in adequately measuring all aspects of the PDO (see M&E section for more details). 28. Support to institutional framework for the definition of adequate road technical standards oversight. The project financed various activities relative to (a) consultants’ services for the preparation of regulatory texts on the licensing of road laboratories and the control of their work and (b) short-term Page 14 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) technical assistance and training actions specifically for CEREEQ. The project provided highly specialized expertise to assess the institutional and regulatory options and proposed adequate legal and operational framework including relevant legal documents and rules and regulations to establish CEREEQ as a national laboratory for civil works. The project had planned to purchase additional laboratory materials and equipment to complement the already available equipment of CEREEQ, but issues with the supplier prevented timely delivery and the contract was terminated. Despite these issues, the activities allowed CEREEQ to enhance its status as the leading national laboratory for civil works and appropriately develop its institutional capacity. 29. Capacity building at DTR. This activity supported the modernization of vehicles and drivers’ license registration and the dissemination of sector legal framework and regulations, which largely improved the processing time of transport documents (digital driver licenses and car registration documents). A pilot program of road safety activities was also financed, including the publication of an educational traffic regulations pamphlet in six national languages. The project financed the implementation of a communication plan on road safety, backed by awareness-raising activities targeting the general public. The national road safety plan adopted on September 7, 2012, was widely disseminated and the regional road safety plans were validated on June 2 and 3, 2014. The establishment of mixed brigades, a strong recommendation contained in the national road safety plan, led to a partnership with a nongovernmental organization (LASER International) specializing in road safety. An extensive awareness campaign was carried out on using cellphones while driving, driving under the influence (drugs and alcohol), and finally road safety education in schools, with the parents' school associations. A total of 15 schools were covered, reaching 1,835 pupils and 400 youth groups. 30. Capacity building, technical assistance, and training activities for the DR. The project strengthened the technical and logistical capacities of the DR to improve its efficiency. In addition to the acquisition of needed equipment to properly and efficiently run the agency (vehicle, information technology equipment, and office furniture), the project financed training sessions for engineers in project management, road geographic information system (GIS) management, and environmental management of infrastructure as well as in M&E of road projects. The project also financed the development of (a) the National Road and Motorway Master Plan8 2015–2035 which addresses urban and rural roads as well as highways and (b) a quality assurance plan for road works in Senegal. Both documents have significantly improved the management of roads in Senegal. With this master plan, the project has provided a reference document for the definition of road projects and has improved the strategic planning for road rehabilitation in the country, thus facilitating decision-making and discussions with donors and the private sector. The plan guarantees continuity and coherence of road investments in the country. The development of the quality assurance plan helped harmonize national practices in the road project management system. The audit of the DR as well as exhaustive assessment financed by the project has reviewed the organization of the entity and has proposed its restructuring and reorganization. 31. The project financed the evaluation of the country’s third Transport Sector Policy Letter (LPST) 2010–2015 and the development of the fourth LPST 2016–2020. Senegal’s fourth LPST was to develop the governance of the sector and the reinforcement of the culture of performance. Indeed, the Policy Letter was adopted in 2014 and defines a set of concrete actions, including major road infrastructure projects, divided into four five-year plans by 2035. These recommendations were adopted by the PSE. 8The National Road and Motorway Master Plan includes a set of actions on major road infrastructure projects to be carried out over 2015–2035. Page 15 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) Major, transformational highway projects—such as the International Airport Blaise Diagne -Thies-Touba (completed in 2018) and the AIBD Airport-Mbour-Mbour-Kaolack highway (currently under construction)—were derived from this LPST. 32. Managing the road network includes increasing the network length and contributing to its quality. The project largely contributed to improving the conditions of the roads in the Grand Niayes.9 A total of 173 km of roads were rehabilitated under the project, 11 km more than the 162 km originally planned. The percentage of roads in good condition in the project area is now estimated to be 71.3 percent higher than the initial target of 60.0 percent. These works resulted in lower travel time on the ‘Rufisque-Bayak-NottoDiogo-Lompoul’, from 211 minutes in 2010 to 150 minutes in 2019, a further reduction from the target of 153 minutes. In addition, on the Lompoul-Gandiole section, travel time was reduced from 202 minutes (2015) to 80 minutes (2019) against a target of 100 minutes. This is a considerable gain as it implies a reduction in transport costs and improvement of mobility and access for the beneficiaries. Indeed, at the project closing, 900,607 beneficiaries were reached against a target of 726,000, a 24 percent increase. This was possible owing to the 11 km of additional roads rehabilitated to connect Léona, a populated town on the way to Saint-Louis, particularly its market in Potou, the biggest in the area and located 1.5 kms from the main road. As a result, the following were noted: (a) a significant increase in the competitiveness of the area’s fishery and agricultural production and (b) an improvement in the accessibility and attractiveness of the area’s tourism and industrial sector. Under the AF, there were significant delays in the completion of the Lompoul-Gandiole road due to the non-mobilization of counterpart funding and some technical issues (that is, planification of activities) from the construction firm, but these shortcomings were addressed with the project restructuring in 2019. Figure 3. Interurban Road before Rehabilitation Figure 4. Interurban Road after Rehabilitation (Lompoul-Gandiole) (Lompoul-Gandiole) Source: AGEROUTE. Source: AGEROUTE. 33. The project financed the rehabilitation of RN1 between Rufisque and Bargny. RN1 is one of the main roads linking the Grandes Niayes zone with Dakar and its suburbs, the port, and the new Blaise Diagne International Airport of Dakar, as well as with the country’s central and southern regions. It is also a stretch of the only interurban road currently linking Dakar and its suburbs to neighboring countries of 9 The Grand Niayes is a narrow band stretching between Dakar and Saint-Louis along the Atlantic coast and traditionally dedicated to vegetables gardening and fruit growing. However, in recent years, the mining industry along the Grand Niayes has flourished considerably. Page 16 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) Mali, Mauritania, and The Gambia. The road was seriously damaged by (a) poor quality of prior rehabilitation works, (b) heavy traffic that significantly increased on route to Mali because of the Ivorian crisis between 2010 and 2011,10 and (c) lack of axle-load control on freight-carrying vehicles. The project fully achieved the target of rehabilitation of RN1 (1.875 km) between Rufisque and Bargny despite the delays noted during the works. Even though works on RN1 were completed in 2013, the fiber optic cable along the road was not removed in time, resulting in delays in completing the drainage work and slope protection. Ultimately, both components were completed only in 2015. With the rehabilitation of the RN1 Rufisque-Bargny section, public transport buses were being extended beyond Rufisque and Bargny and overall reduction in travel time by 40 minutes was noted. Indeed, it used to take 60 minutes from Bargny and Rufisque versus just 20 minutes now. 34. Mobility in Dakar suburbs was improved by paving 26.7 km of urban road. As part of the AF, the paving works covered 11 municipalities in the cities of Dakar and Rufisque on 61 axes divided into two lots (Lot1 and lot2) for a total length of 26.7 km. The roads were in poor and highly dense areas and were essentially defective sandy or lateritic tracks or streets. The sections were selected to improve (a) the accessibility of various socioeconomic infrastructures and priority social services such as schools, health centers, and markets and (b) the mobility of local populations and goods. This activity has been fully completed though it suffered from the absence of counterpart funding, which slowed down implementation. At the preparation of the AF, the Government committed to mobilize more counterpart funds than under the initial project (from 15 percent to 25 percent) to increase the length of roads to be paved. At the implementation phase, the Government, due to financial difficulties, failed to mobilize the funds, which led to the restructuring of the project in 2019 to finance 100 percent of these works with IDA funds. Consequently, the initial 30 km of urban road to be paved was reduced to 26.69 km to stay within budget and time constraints. The impact of these works on the population was tremendous, and they now enjoy much better sanitary living conditions, easy access to basic services, and youth employment.11 Figure 5. Dakar Suburbs before Paving Works Figure 6. Dakar Suburbs after Paving Works Source: AGEROUTE 2019. Source: AGEROUTE 2019. 10 With the crisis in Côte d’Ivoire, the port of Abidjan was no longer a hub for trade and trade increased between Mali and Senegal. 11 See section on the HILM under ‘Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity’. Page 17 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) 35. In Senegal, road maintenance is managed by two entities: AGEROUTE and FERA. AGEROUTE is directly responsible for the implementation of all construction, rehabilitation, and maintenance works of bridges and other road structures as well as the management of the classified road network. FERA has the responsibility to secure funds for road maintenance through different schemes. 36. The project financed the preparation of the AGEROUTE 2017–2021 strategic development 12 plan. This document sets out the vision and the strategic orientations of AGEROUTE which, in the medium term, constitutes its road map for the implementation of the projects included in the Priority Action Plan of the PSE. It strengthens the agency’s capacity in the management of road assets, particularly in the planning of road maintenance programs. The project carried out a specialized training on road and business management for the personnel of AGEROUTE. 37. The project supported the institutional strengthening of the road maintenance management and financing, but its resources remain low and dependent on the national budget. The project assisted FERA in its efforts to improve the efficiency of the allocation of resources for the maintenance of the road network. The project funded the technical inspection of the urban road network, which is typically managed by the local municipalities, to register its characteristics, conditions, and maintenance needs. It also supported FERA to perform an organizational audit and capacity review of municipalities, with the objective of assessing their readiness to manage urban roads maintenance programs funded by FERA. This has laid the ground for the development of guidelines for the management of programs funded by FERA and a framework for assisting beneficiaries with inadequate capacities. These actions resulted in greater efficiency in the allocation of the road maintenance budget and the planning of maintenance activities. For the purpose of its sustainability, the project financed a study on the diversification of sources of funding for road maintenance. FERA's budget currently comes from the special tax on petroleum products (STPP) and from the government's contribution. The implementation of its recommendations will assist FERA in securing more external resources in addition to the fuel levy, making it less dependent on the Government budget. Figure 6 shows the budget of FERA (allocation and mobilization) from 2009 to 2019. 12 http://www.ageroute.sn/2019/09/17/plan-strategique-de-developpement-2017-2021/. Page 18 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) Figure 7. Road Maintenance Budget from 2009 to 2019 Source: FERA 2020. 38. Figure 7 shows that the budget is generally not fully mobilized and the project target of XOF 65 billion budget in 2019 was not attained. The allocated budget was generally aligned with the project target, but the mobilized amount was always lower. Because of the state treasury problems, budget cuts are systematically made from the Road Fund. FERA typically collected the STPP directly from the Central Bank for road maintenance purposes. In 2019, the GoS changed the law and decided to directly collect all STPP and then allocate the budget for FERA. Given the country’s deteriorating fiscal position and as a result of this change, FERA only received XOF 11 billion instead of the planned XOF 57.78 billion. 39. The special tax on petroleum products (STPP) has never exceeded 54 percent of the overall maintenance budget, whereas the target of the project was 80 percent. The indicator was tracked, but the project could not prompt nor control the allocation from the STPP. Every year, based on the allocation from the Ministry of Finance, FERA informs the project on the proportion of the STPP. The objective was to reduce the Government's participation in the FERA budget in favor of more permanent resources. It should be noted that the necessary steps to significantly improve the road maintenance funding model have not yet been taken. The only current source of funding for road maintenance is the national budget. Page 19 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) Figure 8. Percentage of STPP in FERA Budget from 2009 to 2019 Source: FERA 2020. 40. While the condition of roads is improving overall, at national level, about one-fifth of paved roads and half of unpaved roads are still in poor condition, and the road network does not always provide satisfactory traffic conditions. Only one third of the population lives within 2 km of a road that is passable in all weather conditions. In addition, the level of service varies from one area to another and maintenance schedules are not always respected. AGEROUTE's inspection of the road network shows that 80 percent of the paved roads (2017) are in good and average condition (this network carries most of the traffic). For unpaved roads, 53 percent are in good and average condition. The evolution of road condition shows a favorable trend (see graph below). Since the start of the project in 2010, the number of paved roads in good condition has increased by 22 percent, from 60 to 82, while the number of unpaved roads has increased from 39 to 55 percent. The activities carried under out the project have led to the achievement of the PDO1 and contributed to the improvement of the quality of the road network at the national level. Page 20 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) Figure 9. Evolution of service level on paved and unpaved roads Source: AGEROUTE 2020 PDO 2: To improve public urban transport in the GDA 41. The only proposed indicator for this PDO is: " GDA Urban Mobility Policy Letter defined and adopted " and the outcome indicator target was achieved. However, there were several project activities successfully completed that resulted in improved public urban transport in the, which are also presented in this section. 42. The preparation of the Urban Mobility Policy Letter for Dakar was financed by the project and its approval was one of the PDO indicator for the project. The letter was approved on July 27, 2015, by the Ministers in charge of Land Transport Infrastructure and Connectivity and of the Economy, Finance, and Planning. This Policy Letter presents the strategies and policies for an efficient and sustainable urban transport system based on five major pillars: (a) better integration of urban development planning and transport system planning, (b) development of a multimodal transport network, (c) improvement of traffic and parking management, (d) strengthening of the institutional framework, and (e) securing of financial resources. Implementation of the actions presented in the Policy Letter is ongoing and provides a good basis for improving urban mobility in Dakar. 43. The project strengthened the institutional mandate of the CETUD, a public entity whose main responsibility by law is to organize, regulate, and develop urban mobility in Dakar. The project supported the recruitment of several staff with clearly defined responsibilities and technical expertise to increase CETUD’s efficiency to fully assume its role and mission as an urban transport authority in consistency with the urban mobility master plan of GDA. Under the project, CETUD’s new organizational chart was approved and the process of revision of the texts governing its organization and operation, including the operations and procedures manual, was completed. The project financed a national forum Page 21 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) on urban mobility, organized by CETUD, with the objective of carrying out an overall assessment of the urban mobility in Dakar and secondary cities and the role, strengths, and weaknesses of CETUD, the Central Government, the local governments, the transport professionals, and the civil society. The event was co-organized with the Senegalese Association of Mayors and the Africa Transport Policy Program. 44. With the objective of improving urban mobility in Dakar, the project financed, through CETUD, the supervision of the fleet renewal. A leasing scheme allowing renewal of public transport buses managed by private operators was financed by the Government through a specific financing agreement with China EXIMBANK (US$34 million). By appraisal, 505 new buses were leased to operators and under this activity, an additional 900 buses were provided to operators exceeding the target set by the project by 8 percent (from 1,307 to 1,405 buses). The Government also financed the scrapping bonus (Prime à la Casse) for the removal of old and polluting vehicles, for about US$4.0 million. As a result, the reimbursement rate for the leasing mechanism reached the objective of 98 percent. 45. Further, the project supported the professionalization of the informal minibus operators through capacity-building and skills strengthening activities for the sector’s professionals, the restructuring of minibuses routes, and the modernization of operations and service delivery. The training involved 17 operators and focused on the organization of urban transport in Dakar, accounting and financial management, technical management of a fleet of vehicles, management of the public transport network, and human resource management. In this context, a cohort of 1,380 agents were trained, including 298 agents from the DDD, 63 drivers from PTB, and 331 drivers from AFTU. The training also included basic knowledge of vehicles’ mechanics, economical and safe driving, customer relations, transport services’ operation, and post-crash first aid. Likewise, 671 bus fare collectors were trained on ticketing management, commercial and marketing basics, and customer service. These actions resulted in a significant increase in passengers using urban transport services (DDD, AFTU, and PTB) and the objective of 208 million passengers was already reached by 2015. 46. The project significantly strengthened the capacity of CGQA created under the UMIP. The project supported the development of a database and procedures for air quality monitoring, which significantly strengthened the air quality management and assessment functions of CGQA. Further, the project financed the following acquisitions for CGQA: (a) six stations for measuring urban pollution and air quality and (b) acquisition of devices for measuring automobile and industrial emissions. The project also has assisted CGQA in the dissemination of the air quality index and the provision of a liaison vehicle. Capacity-building activities, including a study tour for three agents of the center to be trained in the use of measuring instruments, completed the overall strengthening of CGQA. As a result, Senegal is one of the few countries in Africa that regularly measures and publishes air pollution data. Data collected will undoubtedly inform future projects and climate resilient programs in the country. 47. The project actively participated in the preparation of the Dakar Bus Rapid Transit Pilot Project (P156186), an innovative large-scale operation that aims to improve mobility in the GDA through the introduction of mass transit solutions. The project supported the mobilization of various expertise such as the recruitment of consultants for technical studies and the assistance for the financial structuring of the BRT under a public-private partnership (PPP) scheme. A seasoned legal adviser was also recruited to support CETUD to review the legal aspects of the tender document for the recruitment of the private operator in charge of operating the BRT system within the framework of a Public Service Delegation. Significant progress in terms of strengthening the strategic, technical, and institutional capacities of CETUD and the structures involved in steering the BRT project were noted. This approach allowed the Page 22 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) national stakeholders to familiarize themselves with similar experiences/projects (by, for instance, a study trip to Dar es Salaam, Tanzania) and rationalize the fundamental decisions and options of the project while preparing for its implementation in optimal conditions. 48. Progress has been made in urban transport in the Dakar metropolitan area with the renewal of more than 1,300 minibuses and the concession of 56 lines to 14 small and medium enterprises whose members have benefited from capacity building and training activities financed by the project aimed at professionalizing them. However, 40% of public transport is still provided by unstructured and informal small-scale bus networks called "cars rapides" and "Ndiaga Ndiaye". Moreover, the level of service on the formal routes provided by the national bus company Dakar Dem Dik (DDD) and Urban Transport Financing Group AFTU) has deteriorated and their share in public transport is estimated at a modest 11 percent (surveys on household expenses (EDM), 2015), which does not allow them to play their role as structuring modes of transport. Walking in urban areas is by far the dominant means of travel (70 percent of trips) but has not yet received the attention it deserves. Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating 49. The overall efficacy rating is rated Substantial. As described earlier, the project largely achieved its objectives and all outcome indicators achieved their targets. The improved road is transformative for the selected areas: travel times are reduced, roads in good and fair conditions in the project zone have increased, and economic activity has increased. The Urban Mobility Policy Letter has been approved, public urban transport in the GDA has been largely improved, and the BRT project is successfully under implementation. Nevertheless, the project did not achieve the road maintenance budget targets and the share of STPP in that budget; however, it is worth highlighting that this objective was not dependent on the project but was rather a decision at the highest level in the Government. C. EFFICIENCY Assessment of Efficiency and Rating 50. An ex post analysis was performed by the client, using the Highway Development and Management Model (HDM-4), to evaluate the economic internal rates of return (EIRRs) of the road segments completed by project closure. It follows the same methodology used at the appraisal stage and focuses on the economic appraisal. The economic analysis of the project considered the following: (a) incremental operating costs, (b) incremental capital costs, (c) time savings because of reduced journey times, (d) improvement of the quality of market and fishery products, and (e) significant decrease in the cost of transport for operators All costs and benefits are expressed in constant prices and the analysis considers a period of 20 years. 51. The net present value (NPV), at 12 percent discount rate, and the EIRR were calculated. At appraisal, the realistic hypothesis gave an EIRR of 20.3 percent and NPV of US$22,150. The ex post analysis gives an EIRR of 22 percent and an NPV of US$26,353. Table 6. Economic Analysis Results at Appraisal and Completion At Appraisal At Completion NPV (US$, thousands) EIRR (%) NPV (US$, thousands) EIRR (%) 22,150 20.3 26,353 22 Page 23 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) 52. Additional benefits such as improvements to air quality, noise reduction, and reduction in road crashes are not considered in the economic analysis. 53. There were delays in the early stages of project implementation which extended the initial project by three years and thus increased costs for supervision. Ultimately, adequate arrangements were made to ensure that all activities could be completed before closure. Also, the savings made in the award of contracts, despite the Government’s counterpart funding issue, allowed the project to carry out all activities and even more on the Niayes Road. 54. Based on the above discussion, the efficiency rating is Substantial. D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING 55. The overall outcome is rated Moderately Satisfactory, given High relevance and Substantial ratings for both Efficacy and Efficiency. Per OPCS guidelines, with the above ratings for relevance, efficacy and efficiency, the overall outcome rating could be assessed as Satisfactory, however since the project did not achieve the road maintenance budget targets and the share of STPP in that budget (intermediate indicators) and their impact on sustainability, the team decided to assess the overall outcome rating as Moderately Satisfactory. E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) Gender 56. This was not a requirement under World Bank policy at project appraisal, but the project incorporated a gender dimension in its design, with a core indicator included to measure the percentage of women among beneficiaries of the project. The objective of reaching 50 percent of women among project beneficiaries was achieved at closing (50.4 percent). Furthermore, throughout its implementation, the project sought to promote gender equality. The project particularly focused on a group of 200 women active in the transformation of salt from the lakes scattered along the newly built road. Hangars and storage units were built in Thieppe and Potou and much-needed equipment such picks, shovels, gloves, boots, buckets, protective glasses, and two tricycles to facilitate their work and transport of products to markets were provided. The rehabilitation of the Niayes Road contributed to improving access for women to agricultural and fishing products and improved access to markets to sell their products. At the social level, the significant reduction of travel times observed has translated in more time being spent with their families and in socializing. Page 24 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) Figure 10. Equipment Received by Women Salt Figure 11. Women Salt Producers Receiving Keys of Producers from the Project Tricycle Vehicles from the Project Source: AGEROUTE 2019. Source: AGEROUTE 2019. Box 1. Interview with Beneficiaries In an interview carried out, a woman salt farmer said, “We recognize that the project impacted our daily lives. The project provided us the following equipment: gloves, boots, tricycle. Our cooperative named "Bollo Sokhali sunu gokh" (united for the development of our community), accounting for 200 members was fortunate to have been selected. We wake up at 4 am and work in difficult conditions and we needed help. The newly built road has brought us many benefits. Before, we had a lot of difficulties to get to other villages because of the bad road conditions. The road would not only destroy cars, but we would be covered with dust and we would get to the Potou market very tired. Finally, there was only one bus daily between Gandiol and Dakar. That bus had to connect through Louga to get to the main road for a journey of 6 hours. Today, the bus goes direct to Dakar in less than 3 hours.” 57. Grievance redress mechanism (GRM). The GRM was operational throughout implementation and all complaints have been dealt with and closed to the satisfaction of the complainant. The PIU benefited from training on collecting and addressing complaints, organized by the World Bank safeguard team to further increase in-country capacity for handling complaints in future projects. 58. Gender-based violence (GBV). During the last year of project implementation, the issue of GBV became prominent and the project positively engaged in addressing it. Awareness activities among the populations and the contractors, including daily workers, were carried out using appropriate communication tools for a good understanding of the issue. For example, each employee working on the sites, including daily workers, received training on the meaning of violence against women and signed a code of conduct holding them responsible for any GBV action. These training sessions, available in local languages, along with comprehensive posters posted around the sites and codes of conduct highlighted actions considered as GBV and applicable sanctions. Fields visits took place to observe the application of the rules and the supervising mission was empowered to ensure that these guidelines were followed/complied by all the concerned parties. In addition, the GRM provided for a specific GBV system upstream, allowing for priority and anonymous treatment of this type of complaint, both for residents and site employees. Page 25 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) Institutional Strengthening 59. As discussed earlier, Component 2 was intended to develop capacity for the development of public transport services in the GDA. The most significant achievement was the strengthening of CETUD to better manage the urban public transport modes and prepare and implement the BRT project. Subcomponent 1.1 ‘Institutional strengthening of the institutions in charge of road management and maintenance’ greatly helped increase the performance and institutional capacities of the actors. 60. The strategic studies for the Ministry of Infrastructure Entities, carried out within this framework, and the implementation of the recommendations have initiated structural changes in the institutional dynamics and intervention capacities of the targeted structures (DTR, CETUD, and DR). Moreover, capacity building of implementing entities and hiring of additional staff has had a significant impact on the effectiveness of procurement management, environmental studies, and M&E. Finally, the actions carried out have contributed to the improvement of the sector’s policy and the definition of relevant regulatory and quality assurance tools. Mobilizing Private Sector Financing 61. The project did not have leveraging of private sector financing as an objective. However, it supported the preparation of the Dakar BRT project and financed legal assistance to support CETUD in the definition of the PPP transaction. The BRT project will mobilize a private company to operate the BRT line under a PPP scheme. The financial participation of the private sector for the acquisition of the fleet, systems, and equipment is estimated at US$54 million. 62. The project has supported the development of the existing leasing scheme allowing renewal of public transport buses managed by private operators and financed by the Government through a specific financing agreement with China EXIMBANK (US$34 million). This scheme is highly regarded as a success story of private sector mobilization that could be replicated in the sector. Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity 63. Considering the vulnerability of the youth populations living in these suburbs, the project secured the participation of the local communities through the HILM. This activity represents a solid basis for employment generation. Indeed, 607 young people, of which 23 percent are women, have been trained against an initial target of 600; 500 of the trainees were hired to work on the different sites. The program helped address youth unemployment and allowed these young people to gain experience in pavement works that could support them in their quest for more secured employment opportunities. Wages paid to the youth during the implementation of the HILM program reached US$600,000, exceeding the initial target of US$400,000. Additionally, 1,310 jobs (person-months) were created versus an initial target of 1,000. It should also be noted that four economic interest groups have been created by young people trained by the project, who in turn have secured works contracts in other projects and have therefore been able to find more permanent work. For most of the young people, the know-how acquired made it easy to find work in other workcamps and in localities outside their community. For others, this experience strengthened their confidence in developing economic activities, especially after the educational sessions on entrepreneurship and basic finance offered by the project, which was attended by 607 people, exceeding the target of 600. The motivational survey conducted among the trained young Page 26 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) people yielded very good results and confirmed that the labor-based approach in Senegal, particularly in the transport sector, combined with proper training, can help address the issue of youth unemployment. Figure 12. HILM Training in Dakar Suburbs Source: Ageroute 2019. 64. Access to basic social services such as schools and health facilities was significantly improved in the project area. The project built and equipped three schools in the project zone in Sewo, Longhor, and Thieppe and the impact was already tangible. Students are in much better conditions, no longer studying in temporary shelters. Access time to schools and health centers has been significantly reduced. For example, the rural district capital of Notto has 15 schools, scattered across five villages, with 202 pupils. Because of the unpredictable transport system then, afternoon classes were set to start at 4 p.m. to allow children to arrive on time. With the rehabilitation of the road, students can easily reach the schools and thus classes now start at 3 p.m., therefore allowing an hour of additional learning. Finally, because of the improved road condition with proper safety signs and signals, many children can now use bikes and get to school in 10 to 20 minutes on average. Figure 13. Aerial View of the Lompoul-Gandiole Road Figure 1. Classrooms Equipped with Tables and and the Sowen School Built by the Project, as Part of Benches by the Project the Environmental and Social Management Plan Source: AGEROUTE 2019. Source: AGEROUTE 2019. Page 27 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts 65. Not applicable. III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION 66. The project preparation took 12 months (Project Concept Note approved on May 28, 2009, and Board approval on June 1, 2010). A project preparation advance of US$5 million was put in place to prepare the feasibility studies and the preparation considered and reflected in the project design lessons learned from previous transport projects both in Senegal and elsewhere in Africa. Due diligence was observed in the preparation of preliminary studies, including safeguards documents, and in the collaboration required between many governmental entities who would benefit from the project activities. However, some technical studies were delayed due to procurement and would eventually affect project implementation. The most suitable instrument at appraisal (Specific Investment Loan [SIL]) was selected and considering the complexity witnessed in the preparation of the BRT project. Risks were properly identified during preparation especially for the potential lack of funds for road maintenance and counterpart funding. Appropriate mitigation measures were also identified. B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION 67. Project implementation was affected by many factors and the project was subsequently restructured as a response to these issues. 68. The difficulty of mobilizing counterpart funding from the GoS. The difficulty in mobilizing counterpart funding slowed down implementation and led to a restructuring of the project. Project activities were at a standstill for several months, particularly with paving works, where delays reached one year. The restructuring of the project allowed for the remaining works to be 100 percent financed by IDA. As a reminder, under the AF, the Government was to finance 25 percent of the works. The reduction in the project scope was limited due to savings on procurement. Only 11 percent of the linear roads paving in Dakar was canceled (the project was able to complete 26.7 km instead of 30 km). However, it is worth noting that savings under the contract for the rehabilitation of the Niayes route allowed to connect the Market of Potou (1.6 km) to the main road, further facilitating transport of goods and people. 69. Significant challenges in civil works contract management. Road contracts have all exceeded their initial time frame. Contracts were subjected to amendments and extension of the initial completion dates. A contract was altogether terminated in the last quarter of the project due to nonperformance despite the issue being raised since the previous year. A new contract was signed with another firm and the works were completed on time. Generally, the Project Implementation Unit (PIU) favored negotiations with contractors to find temporary solutions such as last-minute extensions and provision of temporary work orders rather than applying the provisions of the contract such as application of penalties, resulting in poor contract management. 70. Some project activities took a long time to commence. The procurement process was extremely lengthy, particularly in terms of approvals from the Ministry of Finance. The implementation of RN1 and Page 28 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) the Niayes Road exceeded the contractual deadlines. Issues during implementation of the AF activities included the lack of counterpart funding and the nonpayment by the Government to the same contractors working on other national projects, which caused major delays not only in the paving work but also for the Gandiole-Lompoul Road. This was compounded by the slow pace of decision-making and the documentation of contract shortcomings. 71. Project restructurings. The project was restructured three times, including an AF. The initial project, which was approved on June 1, 2010, and was scheduled to close on September 30, 2014, was extended to December 31, 2017. This meant that for an initial duration of four years and three months, it was an additional three years and three months for the same activities. However, it should be noted that the AF was closed as planned on December 31, 2019, and all project activities were successfully carried out. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) M&E Design 72. The project appears to have a slight disconnect between the wording of PDO and the indicators chosen for its measurement. For the PDO1, the assessment of the effectiveness of road maintenance was chosen at the national level whereas the project activities only focused on specific intervention areas. Similarly, the indicator for PDO2 is not well suited to the PDO, as the adoption of a policy letter is a contribution that could possibly lead to an improvement in urban public transport but is not a measure of the improvement in urban transport itself. In general, the various indicators can contribute to the achievement of the project objectives as defined, but do not by themselves guarantee this achievement. 73. The PDOs and intermediate results indicators have been defined to monitor the advancement and the achievement of the project activities. The project results have been measured through the following outcome indicators: (a) reduced transport cost on selected routes inside the Grandes Niayes area, (b) roads in good and fair conditions in the project zone, (c) direct project beneficiaries, and (d) GDA Urban Mobility Policy Letter defined and adopted. The first three indicators were designed to measure PDO 1. These indicators clearly measure the quality of the roads, accessibility of the transport system, and segment of the population that has access to it. Likewise, the Urban Mobility Policy Letter contains an action plan that aims at improving public urban transport in Dakar through institutional support, capacity building, and reforms. Its adoption is clearly in line with the PDO 2. 74. Overall, the project indicators were measurable, achievable, and timebound with baseline data available. The M&E provided clear guidance on what to collect, how and when to collect it, and the responsible party. There was confusion during implementation on how to measure some intermediate indicators mainly related to the HILM activity. 75. Some shortcomings in the tracking of indicators were noted. Some indicators were no longer tracked as soon as the target was met in the initial funding. For example, the evolution of the number of passengers should have continued to be monitored over time. The same applies to the rate of reimbursement of minibuses. For PDO 2, the indicator on the adoption of the Policy Letter was measured Page 29 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) by ‘yes’ or ‘no’. This letter presents the strategies and policies for public transport and sets out the measures for the reorganization of the public transport. After adoption, no indicator was identified to monitor whether the chosen policies were applied or not during the project life. For PDO 1, particularly on the maintenance part, the intermediate indicator on the budget was not appropriate and should have been replaced by an indicator linked to the project activities related to maintenance. Indeed, this indicator goes beyond the project because the budget is voted at the national assembly and project activities were not linked to the budget. M&E Implementation 76. AGEROUTE was responsible for collecting and aggregating Results Framework data for the project. Despite the shortcoming in the M&E design, the indicators were properly filled in throughout the project. The PIU used Microsoft Excel to track the various indicators rather than a more appropriate M&E system that could exhaustively assess the state of implementation of activities and thus ensure the level of achievement of objectives. Overall, throughout the life of the project, all the indicators included in the Results Framework were regularly updated and reported in the M&E system. M&E Utilization 77. The project’s Results Framework was used as a checklist during implementation, and baseline data were identified at appraisal. A dedicated M&E specialist was recruited in the second year of project implementation. This late recruitment of the M&E expert meant that the overall use of M&E was hampered by systematic delays in reporting and problems with the quality of reports. Ongoing World Bank supervision and mission Aide Memoires contributed to the M&E efforts. The assessment of the achievement of the objectives during the implementation of the project was made using the indicators of the results framework. Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E 78. The overall quality of M&E is rated Modest. Although the indicators were adequate to track achievement of the PDO, some shortcomings were noted such as some indicators not being tracked once the targets were met and the M&E expert not being in place in the early stages of the project to follow the project progress more systematically. B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE Environmental and Social 79. Overall, the project's performance in the area of safeguards is considered Satisfactory. There was a positive assessment of the integration of environmental and social issues during project implementation. The project triggered three safeguard policies: Environmental Assessment (OP/BP 4.10), Physical Cultural Resources (OP/BP 4.11), and Involuntary Settlement (OP/BP 4.12). 80. Environmental compliance. Specific attention was given to environmental safeguard aspects during preparation and implementation. The PIU appointed a safeguards specialist in the core team to handle the implementation of environmental and social measures. The project was assigned Category B in the Environmental Assessment classification, because of the limited activities that could have some Page 30 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) localized environmental and social adverse risks and impacts. The main impacts identified were loss of habitats for small wildlife, soil erosion and degradation, improper waste management, noise pollution due to operating machinery, air pollution due to dust and smoke emanating from machinery during civil works, increase in the prevalence of HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted diseases at construction sites and at the enterprise base, and risks of loss of livelihoods due to relocation. 81. OP/BP 4.01: Environmental Assessment. For compliance, the client prepared an Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) which outlined an environmental and social screening process for future subprojects to ensure that they were environmentally and socially sound. The ESMF was disclosed in the World Bank’s Info Shop on April 12, 2010, and in-country on April 13, 2010. As indicated in the ESMF, the subprojects were screened, and specific environmental and social instruments were prepared. The ESIA for the rehabilitation and asphalting works of the Lompoul-Thieppe-Léona-Potou- Gandiole road was reviewed and cleared by the World Bank, and the Environmental and Social Management Plans for the lower risk activities were reviewed by the environmental national authority. Environmental and social clauses were embedded in all bidding documents to enable contractors to follow up on environmental and social due diligence. A local supervisory firm oversaw the construction works, including implementation of environmental and social measures by the constructing firm, on behalf of the PIU. 82. OP/BP 4.11: Physical Cultural Resources. With respect to physical cultural resources, a ‘chance finds procedure’ has been implemented and followed in case of discovery of cultural and archaeological remains during civil works in accordance with the requirements of OP/BP 4.11. 83. Social Assessment. To mitigate the negative impacts of the project and identify those affected to ensure fair, equitable, and prior compensation, the project developed a Resettlement Action Plan (RAP). Good implementation of the RAPs was noted in all the areas crossed by the project and all displaced populations were informed of their rights and impacts of the project and were properly compensated. A participatory and inclusive approach was used throughout the project cycle. 84. Social support plan. The PATMUR, being an inclusive development project, had set up a social accompaniment program for the affected communities to mitigate the negative impacts of the project. During implementation, it was noted, with satisfaction, that vulnerable groups were considered, which guided the implementation of this community-based program with a goal of better appropriation and ensuring that the communities benefit from the positive impacts and socioeconomic spin-offs of the project. This social support can be seen through the support for the socioeconomic reintegration of vulnerable groups, women, and young people; support for the construction of social and community facilities; rehabilitation of schools; construction of classrooms; and provision of teaching equipment and educational tools. Procurement 85. The project’s procurement performance was Moderately Satisfactory. Procurement delays, notably in the preparation and validation processes of the bidding documents for infrastructure, contributed to the slow start of the project during the first two years of implementation. These delays were mainly due to non-availability of needed experts at that time and relaunching of the procurement process. However, these delays did not adversely affect the performance of the procurement function, given the capacity of the system to adapt and take the necessary measures to reduce the delays. For Page 31 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) example, contract management has made it possible to stop works that was not progressing and give them to more efficient companies. 86. In the last two years of the project, the procurement team quickly adapted to the new system in place, the Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement (STEP), and by the closing date all activities not initially started in the previous system (Procurement Cycle Tracking System ,PROCYS) were completed in STEP, which increased transparency. Financial Management 87. Financial management performance was ‘Satisfactory’ throughout the life of the project. The accounting system operated satisfactorily, and the internal controls and staffing remained adequate throughout the project life. AGEROUTE had all fiduciary responsibilities for the project and Financial management arrangements in place satisfied the World Bank’s minimum requirements. Financial reporting was provided on time. The auditors have issued an unqualified opinion on the annual financial statements of the project. The disbursement rate reached 98 percent at the end of the grace period. C. BANK PERFORMANCE Quality at Entry 88. The World Bank team prepared a comprehensive and detailed project design with a focus on improving the management and maintenance of roads in Senegal and a clear organization of urban mobility in the GDA. The project design responded to a real need to improve urban mobility in Dakar and connect the Niayes area. The objectives of the project were clearly articulated from the start. The World Bank also worked closely with country counterparts, specifically with the AGEROUTE and CETUD as implementing agencies, during the design of the project to ensure that the project objective was relevant and realistic, and extensive consultations confirmed that the project design was relevant and appropriate. The project was aligned with the CAS (FY07‒FY11) and the design also drew on lessons learned from UMIP (P055472). 89. The preparation of the project took about 1 year, the PCN was approved on 28 May 2009 and the project approved on 1 June 2010. Despite the yearlong preparation, the project had a very slow start in the first two years with slow disbursements and ultimately an extension of the project closing date. One of the reasons that can be attributed to this delay is the non-finalization of the studies in the project preparation phase leading to delays in completing works (example of the Rehabilitation of RN1 between Rufisque and Bargny mentioned above). ICRs from previous World Bank-financed urban and transport operations in Senegal and other African countries, specifically the Senegal PST2 and UMIP, highlighted the lack of counterpart funding as an impediment for the completion of the investment program, leading to the MU ratings. The risk was identified during project preparation, but appropriate mitigation measures not put in place hence the need to restructure the project a third time to cancel these funds. 90. Implementation arrangements. The World Bank set clear implementation and monitoring arrangements to ensure the viability and feasibility of the project. The project was implemented under the operational responsibility of AGEROUTE Senegal for Component 1 and Component 3 and CETUD for Component 2, but AGEROUTE retained the fiduciary responsibilities for the entire project. AGEROUTE and Page 32 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) CETUD have been in operation for years and have a good track record in implementation of IDA-financed projects, financial management, and procurement activities. FERA was also part of the implementation arrangements as the main source of road maintenance financing. 91. Safeguards and compliance. The PAD included specific measures to ensure safeguards and compliance, with significant efforts to prepare a resettlement framework and mitigation plans. In addition, gender issues were considered in measuring women's access to roads and the project considered youth employment through high-intensity labor force activity. 92. The project completed a resettlement action plan. One hundred and eighty-five (185) people were identified as affected by the project, including 20 women, for a total amount of XOF 238,262,727,112 (approximately US$433,000). The affected persons were compensated from government resources. A total of 12 Complaints were registered through the Grievance Redress Mechanism (GRM) and were successfully resolved. 93. The necessary technical, social, and environmental studies of the project as well as fiduciary assessments were initiated early during project preparation. The PAD and other project documents prepared by the World Bank included detailed information on the situation at appraisal as well as the required arrangements (implementation, M&E, and fiduciary) needed to ensure proper and efficient implementation. Quality of Supervision 94. Although the project had four task team leaders over its lifespan, three of them were involved in the project from the preparation stage and handovers took place smoothly. The World Bank’s team of multidisciplinary specialists actively provided constant support throughout implementation by participating in missions and videoconferences and holding regular communication with the PIU. This allowed the World Bank team to provide meaningful guidance along the way, as needed, particularly for the management of works contracts, the HILM program, and other issues that arose. 95. The WB Task Team has remained attentive to changes during implementation. Overall, the team undertook 16 implementation missions in addition to monthly monitoring virtual meetings particularly during the last year. Two monitoring missions have been conducted per year starting in 2013 and in the last year three missions were carried out. To assist the PIU in meeting the implementation challenges, the missions carried out site visits and discussions with contractors and consultants. Critical issues that emerged during implementation and for which the WB was able to provide and persuade the client to agree were: (i) closer monitoring of indicators; (ii) improved biding documents and contract management; (iii) improved reporting on performance and progress; and (iv) also for monitoring of the government funding. On this last point, the Bank's team helped the PIU to carry out the necessary restructuring while respecting the objectives of the project. In addition, the Task Team or the CMU often approached the GoS to address urgent issues, particularly the last year of the project. 96. Between 2011 and 2013, the World Bank only undertook one mission per year (Implementation Status and Results Report, sequences 2, 3, and 4) and the initial project, expected to be closed in September 2014, was extended for three years for the same activities. This was partly explained by the pre- and post-election period in the country, timid supervision during the first year, and delays in processing and approvals at the PIU and national levels. However, the World Bank supervision was Page 33 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) substantially strengthened afterward with a co-task team leader located in-country who could then carry out close supervision and collaboration. The World Bank team was also proactive in responding to implementation issues by quickly restructuring the project as requested and supporting the PIU. Overall, the World Bank remained fully engaged during project implementation and ensured that all fiduciary arrangements were respected according to the Financing Agreement. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance 97. As describe earlier, the World Bank team was fully engaged during preparation and implementation. The rating for overall World Bank performance is Moderately Satisfactory. Quality at entry was Moderately Satisfactory overall and shortcomings noted during early implementation were not adequately addressed. The delay in the first two years of implementation meant that the project was extended beyond three-quarters of its initial duration. D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME The sustainability of the project’s outcomes over time depends on the following factors: 98. Road maintenance will be key for sustainability of the investments. The sustainability over time of the road infrastructure in the country, particularly the one built under this project, relies on the capacity of FERA to finance road maintenance. One of the objectives of the project was to help increase its budget and the growth in the share of the road use tax. Unfortunately, this objective was not achieved because of the decision of the administration to channel maintenance funds from the tax on petroleum products through the Ministry of Finance rather than FERA. This decision already shows an impact in the budget for FERA in 2019, which decreased considerably and could negatively affect performance of road maintenance in Senegal. The risk of the sustainability of the infrastructures is substantial because of the instability of FERA funding. 99. The project carried out activities aimed at strengthening the institutional and technical capacities of structures in the road and transport sectors and one of the major achievements of the project was the signing of the sector letter defining the transport policy in the GDA. However, the effectiveness of all these actions rests on the commitment of the Senegalese Government in general and the agencies and directorates concerned to strictly and inclusively implement the various recommendations to optimize their procedures and planning. Given the experience of certain structures, such as AGEROUTE and CETUD, this risk is low. 100. Roads paved in the Dakar suburbs will also require maintenance, which falls under the responsibility of the communities and mayors. It would necessitate appropriate funding and organization at the communities’ level to ensure proper maintenance. Fortunately, the project had trained more than 600 young people who mostly reside in these suburbs and who could ensure proper maintenance of the paved roads. The project also held communication campaigns in the concerned communities to raise awareness on the need to properly care for the paved roads. Despite these actions, it may require a decision at the higher level to ensure that mayors’ budgets are used for maintenance activities. To take care of the maintenance, in addition to the budget of the municipalities, FERA can support the financing of these urban roads. Additionally, FERA financing has been part of the policy note and a sustained conversation with the Government on the need for the allocation of the appropriate resources is necessary, especially considering the current situation with COVID-19. There is a need to prepare Page 34 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) emergency response plans with mitigation measures in the transport sector to deal with such situations that would affect public finances and the overall fiscal balance, with consequences to the more immediate allocation of resources for road maintenance. V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The project provides several lessons which can be categorized under following headings: 101. Urban transport management needs a strong organizational structure with the capacity to support the different stakeholders. The Project provided support to CETUD, which allowed for a better visibility of the capacity of state structures to deal with this issue. Indeed, the project has helped strengthen the organizational and regulatory capacities of the urban transport system, coordination and efficiency of the transport system, and definition and support for the preparation of structuring a BRT system. Capacity building of CETUD was also a strategic action of the project that had a direct effect on the improvement of public transport in the project target area. This improvement in public transit is largely due to the increased demand for transport and the attractiveness of the routes for transport professionals. Despite all that has been achieved to date, a lot remains to be achieved for a sustainable and efficient urban transport system in the GDA. The World Bank’s interventions going forward should ensure continuity in strengthening the sector to not lose the momentum. 102. Proper Road maintenance Strategy. It is important to build road infrastructures to facilitate mobility and boost economic activity in the country. However, without proper long-term maintenance strategy, including adequate budget, the infrastructure becomes obsolete and unsustainable. It is even more important to provide for the maintenance of the works in the immediate period after project closure. The project provided institutional support by strengthening FERA in terms of capacity building and knowledge. Unfortunately, budgetary objectives were not achieved, and the share of STPP in the FERA budget was canceled by a law of the GoS in 2019. For the World Bank’s future infrastructure projects in Senegal, it would be important to take these aspects into consideration and set strict conditions that would prompt the Government to respect its commitments regarding post-project infrastructure maintenance. This could possibly be included as a trigger in future PDOs or a disbursement-linked indicator in a future transport project. However, the initiative of the HILM method is to be congratulated in the framework of this project. The young people trained will be able to participate with the local authority organization in the maintenance of the infrastructure, which is the responsibility of cities. 103. Counterpart funding or lack thereof often has a great impact on project implementation. The GoS’ initial 25 percent counterpart in the financing package was intended to increase the amount of work to be carried out. However, during implementation, the mobilization of these funds was an issue that led to major delays in the deliverables, which resulted in an extension of works contracts. For future projects, counterpart funding should be carefully considered, and the World Bank should considerer when appropriate to finance 100 percent of the project. If counterpart funding is necessary, another option would be to set the value added tax) of works contracts for this purpose while still ensuring that key project activities are financed by the World Bank’s contribution. The value added tax of 18 percent is paid by contractors directly to the Ministry of Finance and these funds could be diverted to the project as counterpart funding. The lack of counterpart funding was identified at project appraisal as an impediment for completion of the investment program. Page 35 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) 104. Stakeholder capacity building helps to improve urban road maintenance. In Senegal, urban roads are the responsibility of the communes. The road maintenance fund can support the financing of the maintenance of these roads, but it remains the responsibility of the cities to ensure maintenance is properly performed. The organization and capacity building of the beneficiaries allows for a qualified local workforce to take care of maintenance. The project has enabled the training of young people from the suburbs who have organized themselves into economic interest groups to create their own local businesses and compete in the maintenance of small road works. Also, the strengthening of the institutional capacities financed by the project addressed the main constraints of urban transport in Dakar such as : (i) the lack of clarity in the distribution of responsibilities between national agencies (between project structures and institutions and between different agencies); (ii) limited capacities within ministries; (iii) the lack of clarity in the definition of the role of local authorities in transport and mobility. The project's support to CETUD particularly helped address these issues. In general, capacity building of transport agencies is deemed essential for the sustainability of the transport sector. 105. Mastering procurement and ensuring proper contract management. There is a high risk that project objectives will not be achieved if contracts are not well monitored. Either the company does not meet the deadlines, or the services provided do not comply with the minimum technical specifications, or the contracts simply become more expensive through contract amendments. It is not uncommon to end up with a combination of these three factors (delays, cost overruns, and less quality). To better manage contracts several actions can be considered. - The preparatory phase, with quality studies that respect the local context and the future use of the product, is necessary. For this, the project teams must be staffed with qualified personnel as soon as possible as early recruitment of experienced personnel will help anticipate certain problems. - During contract implementation, the PIU must have dedicated staff and different specialists. If the use of dedicated staff is not justified in terms of volume of work, using specialized firms for ad hoc missions to support an aspect of the contracts would be a good alternative. - All aspects of the contract must be examined and closing rigorously planned to identify issues ahead of the end of the contract. - A specialist in contract management with specific experience in the sector should be included in the core team. 106. Strategic engagement. The project was a result of preparatory studies performed under earlier projects. Similarly, initial studies for the BRT project were financed and prepared under this project. It is also forward looking to include in project design preparatory works for future projects to build a strong and lasting engagement in a sector. A continued engagement not only helps generate additional projects but also contributes to sustaining capacity of the actors and the success of subsequent operations’ implementation. Particularly, continued support in the urban mobility sector is instrumental in achieving key results. The recent setback in FERA’s budget shows that the involvement of the World Bank in the sector to re-launch the dialogue on sustainable road maintenance fund may be timely. The efforts made in building the capacity of national institutions over many years have made it possible to initiate significant transformations of the sector in the capital region, which should result in the establishment of new modern transport systems (BRT, TER) but continued commitment is needed for a better transport system. . Page 36 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: To improve effective road management and maintenance, both at national level and in urban areas Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Reduced Travel time on Minutes 211.00 153.00 150.00 selected itineraries inside the Grandes Niayes areas (mn): 31-Aug-2015 17-Oct-2019 17-Oct-2019 Road section Rufisque-Bayak- Notto-Diogo-Lompoul Comments (achievements against targets): The target is achieved. The objective of travel time reduction was to make the trip (from Rufisque to Lompoul) in 153 minutes, the surveys carried out show that the travel time is 150 minutes after the completion of the activities. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Reduced Travel time on Minutes 202.00 100.00 80.00 Page 37 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) selected itineraries inside the 31-Aug-2015 17-Oct-2019 17-Oct-2019 Grandes Niayes areas (mn): Road section Lompoul- Gandiol Comments (achievements against targets): On the Lompoul-Gandiole section, travel time was reduced from 202 minutes (2015) to 80 minutes (2019) against a target of 100 minutes. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Roads in good and fair Percentage 0.00 60.00 71.30 condition as a share of total classified roads 30-Sep-2009 17-Oct-2019 17-Oct-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): The target for Classified Roads in good and fair condition was 60 percent. By completion, Classified Roads in good and fair condition were at 71.3 percent. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Direct project beneficiaries Number 0.00 726000.00 900607.00 30-Sep-2009 17-Oct-2019 17-Oct-2019 Page 38 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) % of which female Percentage 0.00 50.00 50.00 50.40 15-Apr-2014 Comments (achievements against targets): At the project closing, 900,607 beneficiaries were reached against a target of 726,000, a 24 percent increase. With 50.4 percent of women instead of 50 percent. Objective/Outcome: To improve public urban transport in the GDA Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion GDA Urban Mobility Policy Text None Already adopted Already adopted Letter defined and adopted 30-Sep-2009 17-Oct-2019 17-Oct-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): The outcome indicator target (GDA Urban Mobility Policy Letter defined and adopted) was achieved. The letter was approved on July 27, 2015, by the Ministers in charge of Land Transport Infrastructure and Connectivity and of the Economy, Finance, and Planning. A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: 1. Support to interurban road infrastructure development Page 39 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of youth benefiting Number 0.00 600.00 607.00 from training during the road works 27-Jul-2015 17-Oct-2019 27-Dec-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): This activity represents a solid basis for employment generation. 607 young people, of which 23 percent are women, have been trained against an initial target of 600 Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Wages paid during Amount(USD) 0.00 0.40 0.60 implementation of HILM works (US$million) 27-Jul-2015 17-Oct-2019 17-Oct-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Wages paid to the youth during the implementation of the HILM program reached US$600,000, exceeding the initial target of US$400,000. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of Jobs created Number 0.00 2600.00 6653.00 Page 40 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) through HIMO (person 27-Jul-2015 17-Oct-2019 17-Oct-2019 months) Comments (achievements against targets): 6,653 jobs (person-months) were created versus an initial target of 2,600. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Share of rural population Percentage 0.00 30.00 30.00 with access to an all-season road 30-Sep-2009 17-Oct-2019 17-Oct-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): The target of 30 percent for "share of rural population with access to an all-season road" was achieved. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Urban paved roads Kilometers 0.00 30.00 26.70 26.70 27-Jul-2015 17-Oct-2019 17-Oct-2019 27-Dec-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 41 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) The initial target of paved roads was reduced during the third restructuring, from 30 km to 26.7 km, which was achieved by the end of the project. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Passengers in urban Number 135.00 208.00 208.00 transport services (DDD, AFTU and PTB) (in millions) 30-Sep-2009 31-Aug-2015 31-Aug-2015 Comments (achievements against targets): The objective of 208 million passengers was reached by 2015. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of minibuses Number 505.00 1307.00 1405.00 entered in the fleet renewal operation 30-Sep-2009 08-May-2015 08-May-2015 Comments (achievements against targets): By appraisal, 505 new buses were leased to operators and under this activity, an additional 900 buses were provided to operators exceeding the target set by the project by 8 percent (from 1,307 to 1,405 buses). Page 42 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Roads rehabilitated, Rural Kilometers 0.00 162.00 173.00 30-Sep-2010 17-Oct-2019 17-Oct-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): A total of 173 km of roads were rehabilitated under the project, 11 km more than the 162 km originally planned. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Additional beneficiaries of Number 0.00 650000.00 680203.00 improved access 31-Aug-2015 17-Oct-2019 17-Oct-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): At the project closing, 680,203 beneficiaries were reached against a target of 650,000 for the AF. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Share of the road Percentage 30.00 80.00 49.00 Page 43 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) maintenance budget coming 30-Sep-2009 17-Oct-2019 27-Dec-2019 from TSPP Comments (achievements against targets): At project closing, the special tax on petroleum products was 49 percent and has never exceeded 54 percent of the overall maintenance budget during project implementation, whereas the target of the project was 80 percent. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Road maintenance budget Number 32.00 65.00 11.00 (FERA) (in CFAF billion) 30-Sep-2010 17-Oct-2019 17-Oct-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): At project closing, the target was XOF 65 billion and the real budget was only 11. The allocated budget was generally aligned with the project target, but the mobilized amount was always lower. Because of the state treasury problems, budget cuts are systematically made from the Road Fund. Component: 2. Capacity Building for the development of public transport services in the GDA Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Reimbursement rate for the Percentage 99.00 98.00 98.00 Page 44 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) leasing mechanism 30-Sep-2009 14-Dec-2018 14-Dec-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): The reimbursement rate for the leasing mechanism reached the objective of 98 percent. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Institutional arrangement for Yes/No N Y Y Y the pilot BRT defined and adopted 27-Jul-2015 17-Oct-2019 14-Dec-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): Institutional arrangement for the pilot BRT defined and adopted. The BRT project is under implementation, at project closing. Page 45 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT Objective/Outcome 1 1. Reduced transport time on selected itineraries inside the Grandes Niayes area (minutes) Outcome Indicators 2. Road in good and fair conditions in the project zone 3. Direct project beneficiaries, of which female 1. Road rehabilitated (km) 2. Road maintenance budget (FERA) (amount) 3. Share of the road maintenance budget coming from STPP (%) 4. Additional beneficiaries of improved accessibility Intermediate Results Indicators 5. Urban roads paved (km) 6. Number of jobs created through HILM (person-months) 7. Amount of wages paid during implementation of HILM works (US$ million) 8. Number of youths benefitting from training during the road works Component 1: Support to Interurban Road Infrastructure Development 1.1: Institutional strengthening, including • Support to institutional framework for the definition of adequate road technical standards oversight; • Strengthening of the Second-Generation Road Fund - FERA • Capacity Building at the DTT/actual DTR; Key Outputs by Component • Capacity building, technical assistance, and training activities for AGEROUTE Senegal; and (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1) • Capacity building, technical assistance, and training activities for the DGI/DR. 1.2: Investments • Road upgrading program in the Grandes Niayes region o Rufisque Lompoul (93 km) o Lompoul-Gandiole (69 km) • Rehabilitation of RN1 between Rufisque and Bargny • Pavement works in Dakar Suburbs (26.7 km) Objective/Outcome 2 Outcome Indicators 1. GDA Urban Mobility Policy Letter defined and adopted Page 46 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) 1. Passengers in urban transport services (DDD, AFTU, and PTB) (% increase, million passengers) Intermediate Results Indicators 2. Number of minibuses entered in the fleet renewal operation 3. Reimbursement rate for the leasing mechanism (%) 4. Institutional arrangement for the pilot BRT defined and adopted Component 2: Capacity Building for the Development of Public Transport Services in the GDA • 2.1: Strengthening Entities to better manage travelling by mass transport o 2.1.1: Technical assistance to CETUD o 2.1.2: Preparation and implementation of a strategic framework – DDD-PTB o 2.1.3: Preparation of a pilot Bus Rapid Transit Key Outputs by Component o 2.1.4: Urban mobility improvement operations in the cultural park (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 2) o 2.1.5: Support to air quality monitoring in Dakar o 2.1.6: Carrying out of mass transport-specific studies • 2.2: Support to the development of the existing leasing scheme o 2.2.1: Capacity building activities for AFTU and MECTRANS o 2.2.2: Knowledge and support CGQA o 2.2.3: Training to operators, drivers, and other staff involved in minibus management Page 47 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS Name Role Preparation Supervision/ICR Ndeye Anna Ba Task Team Leader(s) Mouhamadou Kabir Ndoye, Mamata Procurement Specialist(s) Tiendrebeogo, Mohamed El Hafedh Hendah Fatou Fall Samba Financial Management Specialist Jean-Charles Crochet Team Member Mohammad Ilyas Butt Procurement Team Anta Tall Diallo Procurement Team Seynabou Thiaw Seye Team Member Aguiratou Savadogo-Tinto Team Member Medou Lo Environmental Specialist Tojoarofenitra Ramanankirahina Team Member Mountaga Ndiaye Procurement Team Mame Safietou Djamil Gueye Social Specialist Papa Modou Ndiaye Team Member Dorgeles Aude Messe Team Member Page 48 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) B. STAFF TIME AND COST Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY09 0 26,063.58 FY10 17.925 132,703.19 FY11 0 0.00 Total 17.93 158,766.77 Supervision/ICR FY11 14.000 88,810.80 FY12 14.400 66,939.70 FY13 16.765 68,646.26 FY14 16.929 61,075.52 FY15 13.791 42,143.01 FY16 16.590 50,798.66 FY17 21.953 75,559.78 FY18 16.519 55,733.45 FY19 30.370 148,652.87 FY20 33.738 138,898.29 Total 195.06 797,258.34 Page 49 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Actual at Project Amount at Approval Percentage of Approval Components Closing (US$, (US$, millions) (US$, millions) millions) 1. Support to Interurban Road 84.00 90.78 80.00 Infrastructure Development 2. Capacity Building for the 11.80 7.74 11.24 Development of Public Transport Services in the GDA 3. Support to Implementation, 4.20 3.86 4.00 Monitoring, and Evaluation PPA 5.00 0.51 4.76 Total 105.000 102.90 100.00 Page 50 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS Methodological Approach 1. The purpose of this economic study update of the PATMUR is to calculate the economic profitability of the investment. The economic analysis of the project is carried out using the HDM-4 model in its version 2.08 (HDM-4 v2.08). The basic principle of the HDM-4 model is a comparison of the two situations described earlier, in this case, the ‘project’ situation and the ‘reference’ situation. 2. The main calculation assumptions therefore refer to the additional costs for the administration (construction, rehabilitation, and maintenance costs of the studied variant); user benefits (savings on operating costs of reference vehicles and savings on passenger and freight travel time); and other quantifiable endogenous and exogenous benefits. 3. The various relationships predicted by the model make it possible to translate the state of the roadway into vehicle consumption and conditions of use. Based on unit prices, the HDM-4 model calculates the vehicle operating costs for the three section options making up the project. 4. Based on road sections, the economic analysis of the project is carried out. For each section option, the following assignments are planned: • The basic option characterized by the reference situation with which a maintenance standard is associated • The standards of rehabilitation costs • Standards for maintenance in the project situation. 5. The maintenance standards are mainly concerned with the basic tasks of routine and periodic maintenance in ‘with’ project situations. Economic and Financial Value of Project Investment Cost 6. The economic cost of the project is calculated based on the cost excluding taxes, from which are deducted the respective local taxes and transfers representing 15 percent. 7. The financial cost of the project is equal to the multiplication of the cost excluding taxes and the coefficient 1.18 to consider the value added tax taken equal to 18 percent of the cost excluding taxes. 8. After deduction of local taxes and transfers on the one hand and taking into account the value added tax, the resulting economic and financial costs, expressed in XOF, millions are as follows: • Economic cost. This is expressed in CFAF, millions for the Lompoul-Léona, Léona-Potou, and Potou-Gandiole sections and for the whole project. The unit cost per kilometer, expressed in CFAF, millions, is 390.1, 126.2, 239.9, and 246.8, respectively, for the Lompoul-Léona, Léona-Potou. and Potou-Gandiole sections and for the whole project. Page 51 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) • Financial cost. Expressed in CFAF, millions, the financial cost is 16,912.7, 1,319.8, 6,880.2, and 25,112.7, respectively, for the Lompoul-Léona, Léona-Potou, and Potou-Gandiole sections and for the whole project. This gives a unit cost per kilometer, expressed in CFAF, millions, of 402.7, 188.5, 362.1, and 369.3, respectively, for the Lompoul-Léona, Léona- Potou, and Potou-Gandiole sections for the whole project. Analysis Period and Actualization Rate 9. The lifetime corresponding to the period chosen for the economic analysis of the project is taken equal to 20 years from 2019, the year of operation starting. 10. As the actualization rate is 12 percent, the combinations that offered both economic rates of return above 12 percent and a maximum NPV are those that best justify the project. Investment Residual Value 11. The investment’s residual value is estimated, for the planned development option, from (a) The investment’s initial value; (b) The theoretical life of each component of the cost of the investment; and (c) The relative proportion of consumption of each component of the investment cost over the period of analysis of the project. 12. At the end of the calculations, the residual value of the initial investment is calculated for 20 years after the project is operational. Benefits of the Project 13. The benefits resulting from the project are assessed from the community’s perspective and are classified into two categories: measurable direct benefits and non-measurable benefits. 14. Measurable benefits derive from the updated balance sheet of the project’s investments and savings compared to the baseline situation. 15. The calculation of measurable benefits focuses on the vehicle operating cost differential calculated between the situations ‘without’ and ‘with’ the project. 16. Non-measurable benefits include reduced road accidents, increased comfort, and safety. The time savings are directly considered by the HDM-4 model, while those relating to safety and resulting from the (probable) reduction in road crashes are not considered in the economic analysis. Project Profitability 17. The economic analysis concluded to economic profitability criteria of 22 percent and XOF 15.286 billion, respectively, for the internal rate of return and NPV, calculated for the project consisting of a Page 52 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) real investment cost. The NPV is positive and significant and the internal rate of return, calculated both by section and for the project being higher than the minimum threshold required for the transport sector taken equal to 12 percent, follows that the project has good economic and financial profitability. 18. The project benefits a recipient population estimated at 87,869 households out of a population of 680,205 inhabitants in the immediate area of influence and almost 1 million inhabitants in the area of the project's direct influence. The project will cover long-distance travel to and from Mauritania and the Matam and Tambacounda regions of Senegal. Page 53 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER, AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS Borrower Comments: Senegal has benefited from resources from the World Bank to implement the Transport and Urban Mobility Support Project (PATMUR). The project (P 101415) for a total amount of USD 105 million, which had two phases, was definitively closed on 31 December 2019, after the closure of its first phase in December 2017. PATMUR has been a successful project with a record level of disbursement and quality infrastructure contributing to improve the living conditions of the beneficiary populations. In addition to road infrastructure, PATMUR has had to build a lot of social infrastructure in support of the localities crossed (construction of classrooms, fence walls, markets, ...) and has contributed to the improvement of the living and working environment of these populations through job creation and support to women in agriculture and salt exploitation. PATMUR owes these positive results to excellent coordination between World Bank project managers and representatives of the Senegalese government. In fact, during the implementation of the project, a climate of permanent dialogue was established between the parties, thus facilitating reactivity in the processing of project files. Also, regular visits are organized during the supervision missions allowing a direct exchange between the actors and beneficiaries. The completion report prepared by the Bank gives an accurate account of these measures and of the real impact of the project on the beneficiary population, which moreover calls for the continuation of PATMUR. All the different achievements of the project have been reviewed and the ratings obtained are a testimony to the effectiveness of the project. It is true that the project had some difficulties at the beginning on this point but since the recruitment of a dedicated procurement specialist for the project, the problem has been resolved and it should be noted that despite this, the different missions have always rated the procurement as satisfactory. Summary of Borrower Evaluation of the Project: To capitalize on its strategic position and establish a competitive economy and strong growth, Senegal has placed the development of transport infrastructure and the efficiency of the entire logistics chain among its priorities. This option is part of the prospect of making the country the logistics hub of West Africa in accordance with the guidelines set out in the PSE (2014-2035). PATMUR aims, on the one hand, to improve road management and maintenance both nationally and in urban areas and, on the other hand, to improve public transport in the ZGD. In this perspective, the project declines its action through three components including (i) support for the development and management of interurban road infrastructure, (ii) capacity building for the development of public collective transport in the metropolitan area of Dakar and (iii) support for implementation, monitoring and evaluation. The institutional framework for implementation is structured around the government, AGEROUTE and CETUD, which each assume a crucial role in the coordination and implementation of the project. For its implementation, PATMUR received two financings in the form of an IDA loan. The initial funding (IDA 47370) was granted in 2010 for an amount of 27,500,000,000 FCFA (55 million USD). The financing agreement, which came into force on December 29, 2010, provided for the project to close on September Page 54 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) 30, 2014. In view of the difficulties encountered in the execution of activities at the start of the project, a first extension of the closing date is obtained from IDA postponing it to December 31, 2015. A second postponement took place thus bringing the closing date to December 31, 2017. On November 6, 2015, PATMUR received additional funding corresponding to Credit IDA 57310 d '' an amount of 65,000,000 USD (37,895,000,000 FCFA) including 15 million representing the counterpart of the State of Senegal. As of December 18, 2019, PATMUR has posted a satisfactory overall financial execution rate of 95.17% on all funding combined. The dynamism of the budgetary and financial function enabled the project to carry out a financial restructuring of the project considering the difficulties in mobilizing the counterpart of the State for the payment of contract contracts. This option made it possible to control delays in execution and to take all the necessary measures to complete the work within the contractual deadlines. In addition, the effectiveness of financial communication and the sincerity of the financial statements, certified without reverse as well as the very satisfactory level of implementation of the recommendations of the internal and external audits, also constitute factors of financial and budgetary performance of the project. The relevance of the project is considered very satisfactory because the PATMUR has proven to be relevant in its design and its objectives are aligned with the country's strategies and policies. Also, the intervention of the project was shown to be relevant to the needs of its beneficiaries. The evaluation made it possible to demonstrate that the objectives of the project have no gap in their alignment with the main policy documents of the country and the PES (2014-2035). In phase II ((2019-2023), the implementation of the PES priority action plan should make it possible to step up efforts aimed at promoting emergence with double-digit economic growth rates. The priority character of transport infrastructure in State policy is reflected in a particularly high level of investment in the implementation of structuring projects like the BRT which will be the object of a cumulative investment in the 2024 horizon of (426.3 million USD). Completing the TER also constitutes an important financial commitment. At the same time, Senegal has embarked on major works to build 18 bridges and overpasses for an amount of 137,306,760,630 FCFA. The project is relevant in its intervention logic since its design has proven to be conducive to the achievement of its objectives. Its intervention logic is solid and remained appropriate during its implementation. Its implementation methods and the technical solutions adopted made it possible to achieve the expected results overall. The project has demonstrated a great capacity to develop an inclusive and participatory approach in its design and implementation. Its objectives are clearly stated and focused on results. It is also noted a great realism in the definition of the results of the project and their progressive adjustment considering the evolution of its environment and the needs of its beneficiaries. The project is an appropriate response to the needs of its beneficiaries. The final beneficiaries of the project are all the populations of the localities in its direct and indirect area of influence. The direct beneficiaries constitute a wide range of actors intervening at the institutional level (AGEROUTE, CETUD, DTR, DR, FERA) and professionals in the sector (AFTU, MECTRANS, DDD, PTB). The effectiveness of the project is considered very satisfactory because the project presents a satisfactory level of achievement of its products and expected results. In general, almost 99% of the project's products are produced or are in the process. More specifically regarding results, taking into account the latest assessment of outcome indicators and the analysis of risks and other exogenous factors, it is plausible to consider that the expected result has been achieved. In total, it is noted that the project has achieved the objectives pursued in its different components. Many internal or exogenous factors explain its performance. And on analysis, the actions carried out have, for the most part, given rise to significant transformations in each of the project's components. Page 55 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) The efficiency of the project is considered satisfactory. The allocative efficiency as a technique of the project is judged globally satisfactory. The evaluation of allocative efficiency makes it possible to note that the resources allocated to the various components very largely justify the results obtained on the latter. Likewise, the analysis of technical efficiency made based on the comparison between the planned and completed deadlines, on the one hand, and, on the other hand, on the quality of the outputs, reveals that this this is moderately satisfactory. Analysis of the technical efficiency of the project reveals significant delays in achieving the outputs. This is largely explained by factors exogenous to the project or related to procedures and their level of control by the actors. The impact of the project is considered satisfactory. While the project aimed to reduce travel times on certain routes by 30% on certain routes in the Great Niayes area, it is currently estimated at 52.4%. The average transport time has been reduced to 120 minutes compared to 211 minutes in 2010. Thus, the objectives of reducing transport time on the selected routes have been greatly exceeded. This reduction can be observed over the entire Rufisque-Lompoul-Gandiol route. It translates into significant economic and social opportunity gains. The effects of the project on improving the sector's performance and institutional capacities are particularly significant. The strategic studies carried out within this framework and the implementation of the recommendations have initiated structural changes in the institutional dynamics and the intervention capacities of the targeted structures. The socio-economic impacts of road infrastructure are already observable. They relate to the renewed competitiveness of fishery and market gardening production in the area and to the reduction of transport and delivery times for products. For the tourism sector, the impacts have resulted in increased accessibility and attractiveness of the tourist offer in the area. In terms of industries, the roads built contributed to improving the connection of sites and industrial transport. The positive effects of roads are also observable on the improvement of access to basic social services. For the education sector, there has been a significant and general reduction in travel time and the improvement of teaching conditions in many schools in the area, in particular due to the construction of fences for schools in the ZIP. For the health sector, access to health posts and health services has improved with a downward trend in health and safety risks for specific audiences (residents and users). On the environmental front, the mission noted no major irreversible environmental impact following the construction of the roads. Regarding the promotion of gender, it is noted that due to its beneficial effects on the market gardening and fishing sectors in the project area of influence. The durability of the effects is moderately satisfactory. The sustainability of the effects of institutional support is moderately satisfactory. Indeed, the strong will of the State to place the development of road infrastructure at the heart of its strategy is not accompanied for the moment by secure funding for road maintenance. In addition, monitoring of the implementation of the recommendations from the strategic studies carried out is not yet optimal. However, the country has adopted major instruments for the effective control and verification necessary for the quality of road infrastructure. On the other hand, the sustainability of the achievements of road infrastructure is considered satisfactory. Page 56 of 57 The World Bank SENEGAL: TRANSPORT & URBAN MOBILITY PROJECT (P101415) ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) 1. Senegal Country Partnership Framework (Report No. 143333-SN) 2. https://hubs.worldbank.org/docs/imagebank/Pages/docProfile.aspx?nodeid=440666 3. https://www.sec.gouv.sn/dossiers/plan-s%C3%A9n%C3%A9gal-emergent-pse 4. http://www.jo.gouv.sn/spip.php?article8883 5. https://hubs.worldbank.org/docs/imagebank/pages/docprofile.aspx?nodeid=437691 6. Client Completion Report : https://operationsportalws.worldbank.org/Pages/WorkingDocuments.aspx?ProjectID=P101415&DocId =104#files 7. http://www.ageroute.sn/programme-dentretien-routier-annuel/ 8. http://www.ageroute.sn/2019/09/17/plan-strategique-de-developpement-2017-2021/ Page 57 of 57