Knowledge Brief Health, Nutrition and Population Global Practice BASIC PROFILE OF CHILD MARRIAGE IN ZAMBIA Chata Malé and Quentin Wodon March 2016 Child Marriage Series with Education Global Practice eKEY KEY MESSAGES:  Measures of child marriage are high in Zambia. The share of women ages 18-22 who married as children is 28.5 percent, but it has declined substantially over time. The share of girls marrying very early, before the age of 15, has also declined.  Child marriage is associated with lower wealth, lower education levels, and higher labor force participation. These are however only correlations, not necessarily causal effects. In order to design programs and policies to reduce child Box 1: Brief and Series Primer marriage, information is needed on the trend in the How is child marriage defined? Child marriage is defined as a practice over time, where it is most prevalent in a country, marriage or union taking place before the age of 18. and what the characteristics of girls marrying early are. Why a series on child marriage? Child marriage has Measuring child marriage is needed to inform policy. significant negative impacts – not only for girls, but also for a range of development outcomes. Demonstrating these impacts Child marriage is recognized as a major development will assist governments and others to make the case for intervening to reduce the practice. issue that affects girls in many developing countries. The practice has been linked to a number of health risks, What are the topics discussed in the series? The series higher fertility, and lower education attainment, among looks at the impacts of child marriage on health, population, others. The negative impact of child marriage on a wide education, employment, agency, and violence, among other range of development outcomes explains why in many outcomes. The welfare, budget, and non-monetary costs of child countries child marriage is now prohibited by law, and marriage are estimated. Legal/institutional aspects and options why the elimination of child marriage is part of the new to reduce the practice are also discussed. Sustainable Development Goals. Yet more is needed to eliminate the practice than adopting laws. In order to What is the question asked in this brief? The question is: How widespread is the practice, not only in terms of the share of inform program and policies to reduce the practice, this girls marrying early, but also in terms of how early they marry? brief provides a basic profile of child marriage in Zambia. The brief is part of a series of standardized briefs on this How is the question answered? Measures and a profile of topic for several countries. child marriage inspired by the literature on poverty are provided. Page 1 HNPGP Knowledge Brief  More than a fourth of women in Zambia still marry education attainment. This will not only limit her early. employment and earnings potential for the rest of her life, but it will also have other negative consequences for her The analysis is based on data from the 2013-14 as well as for her children. Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for Zambia. This is the latest DHS available. Table 1 provides basic Most studies on child marriage report the incidence of statistics on the age at first marriage for women. Two child marriage - the share of girls who marry early (before samples are considered: women ages 18 to 22, which is 18), sometimes also with the share of girls who marry the youngest age group that can be used to measure very early, before age 15. Such statistics are useful, but child marriage in the country1, and women ages 18-49 they do not capture the “depth” and “severity” of the (the women’s questionnaire in the DHS collects data for practice very well. Better measures of child marriage can women up to age 49). Clearly, a large share of women be adopted from the poverty literature (Ngyuen and marry below the age of 18, and many do so before the Wodon (2012). Three measures are used here: the age of 15, but there are differences in the likelihood of incidence of child marriage or headcount index, the child marrying as children between the two groups. This marriage gap, and the squared child marriage gap. suggests that child marriage may have decreased over Definitions of these measures is provided in the annex. time, as discussed below. The measures are estimated for child marriage as well as very early marriage defined as marrying before age 15. Table 1: Age at First Marriage for Women (%) 18-22 years 18-49 years The child marriage gap represents the “depth” of child Not Married 51.7 18.1 marriage. It takes into account not only the share of girls 18 or Above 19.8 41.8 who marry early, but also the mean number of years of Below 12 0.2 0.6 early marriage. When using the child marriage gap for the 12 0.4 0.8 evaluation of programs or policies, instead of simply 13 1.0 2.0 looking at the share of the girls who marry early, more 14 2.4 4.6 weight is placed on the girls who marry at a very young 15 5.7 8.6 age. While the child marriage gap takes into account the 16 9.2 11.5 average number of years of early marriage for girls who 17 9.7 11.9 marry early, the squared gap takes into account the Total 100.0 100.0 square of that number, thereby putting even more Mean age at first marriage 17.1 18.3 emphasis on girls who marry very early and taking into Source: Authors’ estimation. account inequality in the age of marriage among girls marrying early. The consequences of child marriage are not the same whether girls marry at 12 or 17. Measures inspired from The incidence of child marriage in Zambia in 2013-14 was the poverty literature help in capturing better how early lower than that observed 25 years ago. There has been a girls marry (see the annex). The headcount (H) measures reduction in how early girls marry, but the incidence the share of girls who marry early. The child marriage gap remains fairly high. (CMG) measures the “depth” of the practice, taking into account how early girls marry. The squared gap (SG) puts even more weight on the girls who marry very early. Child marriage has been reduced over time. Table 2 provides trends over time in the measures of child Beyond the share of girls who marry early, other marriage inspired by the poverty literature. Consider first measures of child marriage are also important. the age group 18-22. In that age group more than a fourth of girls marry before the age of 18 (28.5 percent for the The negative impact of child marriage for a girl’s health, 18-22 age group). The child marriage gap (CMG) is at 3.5 education, and well-being is often larger when the girl percent and the squared gap (SG) at 0.6 percent for that marries very early. For example, child marriage is known group. By estimating the same measures on older groups, to have a negative impact on school enrollment and the table provides the trend in child marriage over time. attainment. The earlier a girl marries, the more likely it is When considering the 18 years threshold, there has been that she will drop out early and thereby have a low level of a substantial decline in the headcount. There has also been a decline in other measures, suggesting that girls 1 tend to marry slightly less early when they marry as Child marriage measures must be estimated on the population older than 18, because some younger girls not yet married in the children. Nevertheless, the incidence remains fairly small. survey could still get married by age 18. It is best to measure child marriage as early as possible after the age of 18 to provide The fact that girls who marry early may marry less early is data on conditions as current as possible, which is why the age confirmed by the measures based on the 15 years age bracket 18-22 is used here. Page 2 HNPGP Knowledge Brief  threshold which suggest also a decline in the headcount Household welfare is measured through a wealth index for those measures. Still, overall, the share of girls with households categorized in five quintiles from poorest marrying as children has decreased by 23 percentage to richest. For most women the level of wealth observed is points over the last 25 years (the approximate time gap that of the household in which they married, not their between the first and last age group), and the decline for household or origin, but it is likely that many women marry extreme child marriage (15 years threshold), is limited at with men who have similar socio-economic profiles, so the eight percentage points2. quintile after marriage may not be that different from the quintile before. Also, for younger women, assets and Table 2: Trend in Child and Very Early Marriage (%) wealth may be lower than for older women. In Zambia, the 18 years 15 years measures of child marriage differ by quintile, but it is only H CMG SG H CMG SG in the top quintiles of wealth that child marriage is much All 18-49 years 40.1 5.5 1.0 8.1 0.9 0.14 less prevalent. Age group 18-22 years 28.5 3.5 0.6 3.9 0.4 0.06 Table 4: Child Marriage by Quintile, Age 18-22 (%) 23-30 years 39.5 5.4 1.0 8.6 0.9 0.14 18 years 15 years 31-40 years 44.4 6.2 1.1 9.0 1.1 0.18 41-49 years 51.5 7.4 1.4 11.8 1.4 0.21 H CMG SG H CMG SG Source: Authors’ estimation. All 18-22 years 28.5 3.5 0.6 3.9 0.4 0.06 Wealth quintiles Poorest 48.4 6.2 1.0 7.3 0.8 0.11 Girls are more likely to marry early if they live in rural Poorer 42.3 5.4 0.9 6.1 0.6 0.09 areas and are from poorer socio-economic groups. Middle 34.5 4.0 0.6 4.5 0.4 0.05 Richer 21.9 2.6 0.4 2.7 0.3 0.04 Child marriage is more prevalent in rural than in urban Richest 8.8 1.0 0.2 1.1 0.1 0.02 areas. There are also differences between regions, with Source: Authors’ estimation. the lowest measures observed in the Western region and the highest measures observed (according to the Child marriage is associated with lower education headcount index for the 18 years threshold) in the attainment and a lower likelihood of literacy. Northern and Eastern regions, followed by the Muchinga, Southern, Central and Luapula regions. Child marriage is Table 5 provides data on child marriage by level of less prevalent in the Copperbelt. The ranking of the education of the women, as well as literacy. Child regions in terms of the measures obtained with the 15 and marriage affects education attainment negatively, 18 years thresholds tends to be similar. because girls often drop out of school when they marry. The causality goes the other way as well, as the ability to Rural girls are much more likely to marry early than urban pursue one’s education may help delay the age at girls. Girls from the bottom four quintiles of wealth are marriage. This relationship between education and child much more likely to marry than girls from the top quintile. marriage is apparent in the data, in that the measures of child marriage tend to be higher among women with lower levels of education. The same relationship is observed Table 3: Child Marriage by Location, Age 18-22 (%) when considering literacy where three categories are 18 years 15 years considered: the woman cannot read at all, can read part H CMG SG H CMG SG of a sentence, or can read a full sentence. All 18-22 years 28.5 3.5 0.6 3.9 0.4 0.06 Region Central 31.8 3.6 0.5 3.2 0.3 0.03 The relationship between child marriage and schooling is Copperbelt 17.1 2.4 0.5 4.1 0.5 0.08 important for policy as the causality goes both ways. Child Eastern 41.6 5.1 0.8 6.5 0.7 0.10 marriage may lead to dropouts and lower education Luapula 28.7 3.4 0.5 3.9 0.4 0.04 attainment. But the reverse is true as well: keeping girls in Lusaka 21.8 2.4 0.3 1.8 0.2 0.02 school is often one of the best ways to delay marriage. Muchinga 40.5 5.6 0.9 7.7 0.7 0.08 Northern 45.4 5.7 1.0 6.3 0.8 0.15 North Western 23.7 3.2 0.5 4.3 0.4 0.04 Marrying between the ages of 15 and 17 tends to affect Southern 32.8 3.7 0.5 3.1 0.3 0.03 primarily secondary education enrollment or completion, Western 15.8 2.1 0.3 1.3 0.1 0.01 and may not necessarily affect the completion of primary Residence education. But marrying even earlier can also prevent Urban 17.9 2.1 0.3 2.2 0.2 0.03 girls from completing their primary education (primary Rural 38.7 4.8 0.8 5.6 0.6 0.08 school takes in principle six years to complete, but some Source: Authors’ estimation. students start primary school late and may also repeat grades, so the actual age of completion may be delayed). 2 These measures have standard errors (not shown to save space). Some differences may not be statistically significant. Page 3 HNPGP Knowledge Brief  Table 5: Child Marriage by Education Level and Conclusion Literacy Status, Age 18-22 (%) 18 years 15 years This brief has provided a basic profile of child marriage in H CMG SG H CMG SG Zambia. Measures of child marriage are high. The share All 18-22 years 28.5 3.5 0.6 3.9 0.4 0.06 of women ages 18-22 who married as children is 28.5 Education percent, but it has declined substantially over time. The No education 58.5 8.2 1.4 11.1 1.2 0.17 share of girls marrying very early, before the age of 15, Primary, some 56.2 7.7 1.3 9.8 1.0 0.13 has also declined dramatically. Child marriage is Primary, compl. 43.3 5.1 0.8 5.4 0.6 0.08 associated with lower wealth, lower education levels, and Secondary, some 20.1 2.2 0.3 1.9 0.2 0.03 Secondary, compl. 2.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 - - higher labor force participation. These are however only Higher - - - - - - correlations, not necessarily causal effects. Other briefs in Literacy this series look at potential causal effects. Cannot read 54.1 7.5 1.3 10.7 1.2 0.16 Limited ability 49.8 6.1 0.9 5.9 0.5 0.06 References Full sentence 19.2 2.1 0.3 1.7 0.2 0.03 Source: Authors’ estimation. Values rounding to 0.0 not shown. Foster, J., J. Greer, and E. Thorbecke, 1984, A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures, Econometrica 52: 761–776. Relationships between child marriage and labor force participation can be complex and depend on context. Nguyen, M. C., and Q. Wodon, 2012, Measuring Child Marriage, Economics Bulletin 32(1): 398-411. Table 6 provides data on labor force participation. In Annex: Methodological Note some countries child marriage may reduce labor force participation through higher fertility. In others, if child The headcount index, child marriage gap, and squared child marriage is associated with poverty, women may leave marriage gap are the first three measures of the so-called FGT little choice but to work. Other effects could be at work, so class (Foster et al., 2014). Denote by q the number of girls who that the relationship between child marriage and labor marry early and by n the number of girls in the overall force participation is complex. In Zambia, child marriage population. Denote by yi the age of marriage of girl i and by z measures are lower for women not working, suggesting a the age threshold defining child marriage (18 years of age, but a positive association between child marriage and work. lower age threshold can also be used to measure extreme child However, the type of work associated most with child marriage). The general formula for the FGT class of measures marriage is work with a mix of earnings in cash and kind, depends on a parameter α which takes a value of zero for the headcount, one for the child marriage gap, and two for the as well as unpaid work, which may be work with low squared child marriage gap in the following expression: productivity. These basic statistics however do not imply  1 q  z  yi   z  causality. P  n i1   Table 6: Child Marriage by Labor Force Participation Status, Age 18-22 (%) 18 years 15 years This brief was produced as part of the Economic Impacts of Child H CMG SG H CMG SG Marriage study, a joint project of the International Center for Research on Women (ICRW) and the World Bank, which is supported by the Bill & All 18-22 years 28.5 3.5 0.6 3.9 0.4 0.06 Melinda Gates Foundation and the Children’s Investment Fund Working Foundation (CIFF). More details on the research can be found at the No 23.1 2.7 0.4 2.9 0.3 0.04 project’s website: www.costsofchildmarriage.org. Partial funding for the yes 38.3 4.9 0.8 5.8 0.6 0.09 work related to child marriage and education, labor force participation, Type of work earnings, and program responses has been provided by the Global Not paid 40.9 4.9 0.7 4.3 0.4 0.05 Partnership for Education. Comments from Jeff Edmeades and Cash only 35.1 4.8 0.9 7.3 0.8 0.12 Margareta Norris Harrit are gratefully acknowledged. The opinions Cash and in-kind 54.0 5.9 0.9 4.8 0.7 0.11 expressed in this brief are those of the authors only and need not reflect the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, of the countries In-kind only 20.5 2.3 0.3 - - - they represent. Source: Authors’ estimation. Values rounding to 0.0 not shown. The Health, Nutrition and Population Knowledge Briefs of the World Bank are a quick reference on the essentials of specific HNP-related topics summarizing new findings and information. These may highlight an issue and key interventions proven to be effective in improving health, or disseminate new findings and lessons learned from the regions. For more information on this topic, go to: www.worldbank.org/health. Page 4