The World Bank Nigeria Electrification Project (P161885) REPORT NO.: RES42946 RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF NIGERIA ELECTRIFICATION PROJECT APPROVED ON JUNE 27, 2018 TO FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA ENERGY AND EXTRACTIVES GLOBAL PRACTICE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AFRICA Regional Vice President: Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Shubham Chaudhuri Regional Director: Riccardo Puliti Practice Manager: Ashish Khanna Task Team Leaders: Johannes C. Exel, Muhammad Abba Wakil The World Bank Nigeria Electrification Project (P161885) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AFD Agence Française de Développement (French Development Agency) AfDB African Development Bank COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease DISCO Electricity Distribution Companies E&S Environmental and Social EEP Energizing Education Program EPC Engineering, Procurement and Construction ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework ESMS Environmental and Social Management System FMOF Federal Ministry of Finance FMOH Federal Ministry of Health FMPWH Federal Ministry of Power, Works and Housing FGN Federal Government of Nigeria GDP Gross Domestic Product IDA International Development Association IFC International Finance Corporation ISDS Integrated Safeguards Data Sheet MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MSME Micro-, Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises NCDC Nigeria Centre for Disease Control NEP Nigeria Electrification Project NERC Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission NPHCDA National Primary Health Care Development Agency O&M Operations and Maintenance PBG Performance Based Grants PDO Project Development Objective PHC Primary Health Care PMU Project Management Unit PPSD Project Procurement Strategy for Development REA Rural Electrification Agency RESIP Rural Electrification Strategy and Implementation Plan RPF Resettlement Policy Framework SHS Standalone Solar Systems STEP Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement The World Bank Nigeria Electrification Project (P161885) BASIC DATA Product Information Project ID Financing Instrument P161885 Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Current EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Approval Date Current Closing Date 27-Jun-2018 31-Oct-2023 Organizations Borrower Responsible Agency Federal Republic of Nigeria Federal Ministry of Finance,Rural Electrification Agency Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The development objective is to increase access to electricity services for households, public educational institutions, and underserved micro, small and medium enterprises. OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDO Summary Status of Financing (US$, Millions) Net Ln/Cr/Tf Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed IDA-62910 27-Jun-2018 12-Feb-2019 10-Jun-2019 31-Oct-2023 350.00 26.73 315.37 Policy Waiver(s) Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No The World Bank Nigeria Electrification Project (P161885) I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING A. Country and Sector Context 1. Nigeria is central to the World Bank’s mission of eliminating global poverty. A multi-ethnic and diverse federation of 36 autonomous states, with an abundance of resources, and a young and dynamic society, Nigeria is already Africa’s largest country (over 200 million people) and largest economy (nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of around US$450 billion in 2019), and has the potential to be a giant on the global stage. But with over 40 percent of its population (over 80 million people) in poverty, Nigeria is also the country with the largest number of absolute poor in the world. Economic growth, at 2.2 percent in 2019, has been below the rate of population growth since 2016, when Nigeria experienced its first recession in two decades. Fragility, conflict and insecurity afflict many parts of the country, in particular the northeast, corruption and weak capacity plague the public sector, and on many human development indicators, Nigeria ranks amongst the lowest in the world. To realize its considerable potential, and to fulfill the Government’s ambition to lift 100 million Nigerians out of poverty by 2030, Nigeria has to make tangible progress on multiple fronts, at both the federal and sub-national levels. 2. The economic and human impact of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic on Nigeria will be severe, even if Nigeria manages to contain the outbreak locally. Because of Nigeria’s vulnerability to oil price shocks, with the sharp fall in oil prices as a result of the COVID-19 crisis, the economy is projected to contract by over 3 percent in 2020, and consolidated government revenues to fall by over 3 percent of GDP (nearly US$15 billion) or more, at a time when fiscal resources are urgently needed to contain the outbreak and initiate counter-cyclical and pro-poor fiscal measures to protect the lives and livelihoods of the nearly 90 million Nigerians in extreme poverty and millions of others in urban areas who are dependent on the informal economy. Estimates suggest that the extreme poverty rate could go up by a couple of percentage points and that the number of poor could increase by between 10 to 15 million by 2022.1 The human and economic costs would be amplified if the outbreak becomes more severe, leading to a deeper recession and greater health-related costs. Since the first case was identified in late February 2020, by mid-August 2020 Nigeria had recorded 46,140 cases and 942 deaths. 3. With 47 percent of the population (97 million people) lacking access to grid electricity, Nigeria has the largest access deficit in Sub-Saharan Africa and the second largest in the world, after India. For the bottom 40 percent, access to grid electricity is lower at about 31 percent nationwide. Low income-households resort to candles and flashlights for lighting and firewood for cooking, which are inefficient and potentially harmful to their health and the environment. Insufficient energy impacts all Nigerians, however, the burden of ensuring access to energy (through using or collecting traditional fuels) often falls predominantly on women. 4. Recognizing the need for action outside the grid-connected areas that the electricity distribution companies (DISCOs) currently service, in 2016 the President approved the Rural Electrification Strategy and Implementation Plan (RESIP) which aims “to expand access to electricity as rapidly as possible in a cost-effective manner. This implies full use of both grid and off-grid approaches, with subsidies being primarily focused on expanding access rather than consumption. It is assumed that private sector providers will be heavily involved in enhancing access.” 5. On February 12, 2019, a Financing Agreement was signed between the International Development Association (IDA) and the Federal Republic of Nigeria for an IDA credit in the amount of SDR 243.4 million (US$350 million 1 Nigeria Development Update (Spring 2020)—Nigeria in Times of COVID-19: Laying Foundations for a Strong Recovery (World Bank; June 2020). The World Bank Nigeria Electrification Project (P161885) equivalent) for the implementation of the Nigeria Electrification Project (NEP) supporting the RESIP. A Subsidiary Agreement and a subsequent Subsidiary Grant Agreement were entered into on March 8, 2018, and May 21, 2019 respectively, between the Federal Ministry of Finance (FMOF) and the Rural Electrification Agency (REA), being the implementing government agency for the NEP. The NEP became effective on June 10, 2019. 6. The project development objective (PDO) of NEP is to increase access to electricity services for households, public educational institutions, and underserved micro, small and medium enterprises. Project beneficiaries are households, micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), students, faculty staff, and patients at Federal Universities and Teaching Hospitals throughout Nigeria. Approximately 2.5 million people (approximately 500,000 households), 70,000 MSMEs, seven universities, and two associated teaching hospitals will receive new or improved access to electricity services as a result of implementation of NEP. 7. The NEP comprises of the following four components: (a) Solar Hybrid Mini Grids for Rural Economic Development (US$330 million of which IDA US$150 million equivalent and US$180 million equivalent from private sector funding): Under this component, the project supports the development of private sector mini grids in unserved and underserved areas that have high economic growth potential. (b) Standalone Solar Systems (SHS) for Homes and MSMEs (US$305 million equivalent, of which IDA US$75 million equivalent and US$230 million from private sector funding): The goal of this component is to significantly increase the market for stand-alone solar systems in Nigeria in order to provide access to electricity to more than one million Nigerian households and MSMEs at lower cost than their current means of service such as small diesel gensets; (c) Energizing Education Program (EEP) (Phase II) (US$105 million equivalent from IDA): The objective of this component is to provide reliable, affordable, and sustainable power to public universities and associated teaching hospitals; and (d) Technical Assistance (US$25 million, of which US$20 million equivalent from IDA and US$5 million from counterpart funding): This component is designed to build a framework for rural electrification upscaling, support project implementation as well as broad capacity building in REA, Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), Federal Ministry of Power, Works and Housing (FMPWH) and other relevant stakeholders. 8. NEP also supports private sector-driven solutions to deliver renewable off-grid and mini grid power sources to unserved and underserved rural communities (Component 1 and Component 2). As part of an enabling framework, output based grants are provided to qualified companies on the basis of new customers connections. Interested companies need to be qualified under the program by meeting a number of minimum criteria2, which is verified by the REA’s Project Management Unit (PMU) and an independent law firm. B. Project Status 9. Following effectiveness on June 10, 2019, the project has disbursed 7.83 percent (US$26.08 million) as of August 14, 2020. As of end of June 2020, 17 percent of total project financing was committed. It is planned that by the end of June 2021, 55 percent of NEP will be committed. Currently thirty-two (32) companies, many of which are reputable, global firms, have been qualified under Component 1 and Component 2. NEP has established an innovative online 2The criteria include legal establishment in the Nigeria, healthy financial position for at least the last two years, proven track record with deployment of solar mini grids and solar systems and approved business plan among other factors. The World Bank Nigeria Electrification Project (P161885) data management platform (REA-Odyssey) to manage the implementation process. The REA-Odyssey platform increases transparency and efficiency, disseminates market intelligence to all interested parties and timely provides updates on monitoring and evaluation data. Currently, 60,000 claims have been submitted of which 20,000 have been verified; 291 mini grid projects have been uploaded; and 45 companies have provided their corporate data of which 32 are qualified. 10. Even though the first disbursements of the output-based aid funds have already taken place, continued attention is required for the timely disbursement of the funds to a fast-growing number of claims submitted by the participating companies. Increased private sector confidence in the program will help trigger the next level of (semi) commercial co-financing from local and international financiers and developers in collaboration with development partners ((Agence Française de Développement (French Development Agency, AFD); African Development Bank, (AfDB)), International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA). In addition, continuing attention to processing of some of the procurements will be also required given the initial delays. The PMU and REA are addressing these issues through the realignment of functions within the PMU to focus on outcomes along the three main components by: (i) establishing multi-disciplinary component teams; (ii) strengthening internal communication and reporting; and (iii) expanding bandwidth for fiduciary processes by signing the contract with PricewaterhouseCoopers, which acts as an independent verification agency. 11. By the end of June 2020, a key milestone of the project was achieved by providing electricity to 250,000 people through solar mini grids and solar standalone systems. The milestone represents a confirmation of the interest by the private sector to develop mini grid projects and to sell high quality, Lighting Global-certified, SHSs on commercial basis under NEP. The private sector raised an estimated US$25 million in (semi-) commercial financing to deliver these electricity services, ensuring a continued emphasis on financial viability through their investors even after either commissioning or sales of the respective systems. The REA’s PMU has been diligent in tracking all these processes and statistics through its REA’s Odyssey Platform. Progress towards achievement of PDO and overall implementation progress is currently rated as Satisfactory. 12. Overall safeguards rating is Satisfactory. REA has proactively addressed environmental and social (E&S) issues throughout project implementation, following the processes set out in the environmental and social management framework (ESMF) and resettlement policy framework (RPF). REA has had adequate E&S capacity since the project preparation and has retained both E&S specialists for the project who now have developed substantial track record of implementing E&S measures. REA has regularly engaged with developers and other stakeholders on E&S issues and E&S requirements have been embedded into the process of qualification for financing. Each developer must have an Environmental and Social Management System (ESMS) in place that covers all material aspects of managing E&S risks for individual sites. 13. Financial management is rated Satisfactory. Procurement performance rating is Moderately Satisfactory due to the reasons provided in para 10 above3. There are no overdue audits. 14. In terms of the impacts of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the implementation of the project has been moderately affected with the restrictions in movements in the countryside for energy and appliances audits under preparation for the EEP (Component 3) and for the private sector to meet the demand for solar home systems and solar mini grid connections. Before COVID-19, the qualified companies were submitting about 2,000 new electricity connections per week on average. During the crisis, the sales of systems stabilized and, in some weeks, reduced 3 The rating is as per the latest archived PRAMS assessment dated January 27, 2020. The World Bank Nigeria Electrification Project (P161885) significantly. Some companies reported a drop in sales by 20-30 percent after the onset of the pandemic, and the delinquency rate also increased on customer accounts. The pandemic period has also presented some difficulty for companies to clear the products from the port of entry due to port congestion coupled with the delayed clearance processes. However, sales and collections started gradually picking up for some of the companies in July 2020. C. Rationale for Restructuring 15. Nigeria faces significant challenges in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, but the Government has responded proactively. Nigerian public health authorities moved proactively to contain the spread. Nation-wide lockdown measures were announced in late March but given the severe impact on the livelihoods of the tens of millions who rely on daily sustenance from informal economic activities, the lockdown has since mid-May been partially eased and restrictions on inter-state travel were lifted in early July. The risk of a wider outbreak remains significant. More coordinated action among agencies and between the federal and state levels will be critical, especially given the limited physical and institutional capacity in the health sector. Testing rates remain low with a total of 318,000 people tested so far, less than 0.2 percent of the total population. 16. Led by a multi-sectoral Presidential Task Force on COVID-19, Nigeria has adopted an approach of mitigating the health impacts of the pandemic through the use of isolation and treatment centers. A network of 16,900 public health care facilities cover the population, of which 81 percent lack reliable power supply. At least 25 critical facilities per states serve as isolation centers and labs for the COVID-19 containment. Lack of power in these facilities adversely affects their capacity to provide adequate health care, maintain adequate infection prevention and control, carry out sample testing and treat critical patients with oxygen therapy. The health response is guided by a National Incident Action Plan for which the Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC) plays a lead implementation role, together with the Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH), and the National Primary Health Care Development Agency (NPHCDA). Under Nigeria’s federal system, responsibility for health care is split between levels of government with some tertiary hospitals financed by FMOH, and other hospitals and all health centers financed by state and local governments. The FMOH plays a stewardship role in relation to all secondary and tertiary hospitals, while the NPHCDA plays a stewardship role in relation to primary health facilities. 17. In consideration of both the health and economic impacts of COVID-19, the REA, in partnership with NCDC, NPHCDA and State Governments (Nigeria Governors’ Forum), is proposing to supply reliable electricity under NEP to a prioritized cohort of 100 isolation and treatment centers and 400 primary healthcare (PHC) centers. Selection of first 100 centers will be aligned with the FMOH strategy for ensuring availability of oxygen supply, which is critical to support the COVID-19 response in the country. 18. The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) has requested the World Bank, through letter from the Minister of Finance dated June 15, 2020, to consider reallocating funds under NEP to finance the COVID-19 Response for (i) reliable solar power supply for 100 priority response healthcare facilities that are being used as isolation and treatment centers; (ii) reliable solar power supply for 400 PHC facilities; (iii) owner’s engineer, energy audits and implementation of sustainability. The Response is proposed to be mainly financed out of the mini grid component (Component 1) with some contribution from the Standalone Solar Systems component (Component 2) to accommodate the additional program management and technical assistance needed for implementation. Companies already qualified under NEP and that have sufficient inventory in country are the cohort of companies that can implement proposed the COVID-19 activities. The World Bank Nigeria Electrification Project (P161885) 19. NEP has an estimated US$87 million that can be reallocated to support the COVID-19 Response mostly under Component 1 (see Table 1 for details). Sub-component 1(a) (Minimum Subsidy Tender for Mini Grids) has progressed with some delays. The initial selection phase has been completed; thirteen companies are shortlisted for the first Minimum Subsidy Tender for the deployment of solar hybrid mini grids by the private sector to about 150 communities. This tender will require an estimated subsidy contribution of US$25 million from NEP. The remaining US$45 million under this sub-component was intended to be available for subsequent tenders, however, FMOF and REA have proposed to use the remaining funds to finance the COVID-19 Response. Component 1(b) (Performance- Based Grants; PBG) is moving forward satisfactorily with fourteen qualified companies having submitted 115 projects for technical verification and an additional 122 in the pipeline representing in total of 137,000 connections or US$48 million in projected PBG disbursement for this sub-component by June 2022. The remainder of the PBG funds (US$32 million) are available for the COVID-19 Response. The redirection of resources to power health facilities will help to further the aims of the original project, because the health facilities will function as anchor loads for mini-grid development at a later date4. An additional US$10 million is available from the performance grants under Component 2 because of the suppressed sales of solar home systems caused by the COVID-19 lockdown. Table 1. Project budget and use of funds (US$ million) Description of (sub) components Total original IDA financing budget of NEP Original budget Planned for Available for including implementation COVID-19 counterpart Response financing Component 1: Solar Hybrid Mini Grids 330 150 73 77 1a: Minimum Subsidy Tender 140 70 25 45 1b: Performance Based Grants 190 80 48 32 Component 2: Stand-alone Solar Systems 305 75 65 10 2a: Market Scale-up Challenge Grants 30 15 15 - 2b: Performance Based Grants 275 60 50 10 Component 3: Energizing Education 105 105 105 - Component 4: Technical Assistance 25 20 16 4 Grand Total 765 350 263 87 20. To accelerate the implementation of the requested activities under the COVID-19 Response, a two phased approach will be used. Phase I will deploy standardized 50kW solar hybrid power systems to 100 health facilities through the limited procurement method from companies already qualified under NEP. Phase II will provide electricity to an estimated 400 primary healthcare facilities. These solar hybrid power systems will also be procured on an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) plus one-year operations and maintenance (O&M) basis but will use an international competitive procurement method. 21. The REA COVID-19 intervention and NEP restructuring will have a positive impact on 500 health facilities, which provide 2,850 beds and serve 1,185,600 patients annually, and cover an estimated catchment population of 9.5 million people. The interventions to be financed through the proposed restructuring will enable additional shifts and working hours to support 9,025 direct jobs of health workers and 4,750 indirect jobs (village health workers and other outreach workers). Additional jobs will also be created across the healthcare facilities’ value chain including 4It is planned that at least 300 of the 500 health facilities will be chosen for transition into mini grids providing electricity to an estimated 90,000 additional end users. The World Bank Nigeria Electrification Project (P161885) creating a market for the local pharmaceutical industry, private sector investment in health infrastructure, equipment and maintenance services. The construction and subsequent transition of these system into mini grids will create up to 20,000 jobs in the communities through increase of use of productive appliances. 22. The original PDO of NEP was focused on specific group of beneficiaries, which include households, public educational institutions, and underserved micro, small and medium enterprises. PDO will need to be changed to accommodate the revised approach proposed under the restructuring by including public institutions in general. 23. Economic and Financial Analysis. The proposed restructuring will not significantly change the economic and financial analysis of the project. At least 300 of the 500 systems will be converted into private sector led mini grids, providing reliable power to the health facilities as anchor loads complemented by the end users from neighboring communities. These systems have the same economic and financial analysis as was conducted for the original project. The other 200 systems will have a similar cost/benefit structure as was originally planned for mini grids with the only difference being that these will be providing electricity to a single end user (the health facility). The single end-user however consumes the same electricity consumption as originally anticipated for a remote load- center, resulting in similar economic and financial outcomes for the project. 24. Following the restructuring, the revised development objective of the project will continue to be highly relevant and provide an increased access to electricity services to a wider group of beneficiaries. With this restructuring, it is the expectation that this will remain the same or improve in case the capacity constraints at the PMU are resolved and the private sector return to its exponential growth curve in delivering electricity services to the end users. II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES 25. The restructuring of the project includes i) change to PDO to enable financing activities under the COVID- 19 Response; (ii) revision of cost of components to reallocate financing from performance-based funding towards the COVID-19 response investments and preparation services; (iii) modification of the results framework; and (iv) revision of disbursement estimates. 26. Changes to PDO. The PDO will be revised to exclude the word “educational” from the original PDO to expand the group of beneficiaries under NEP to finance the response to the COVID-19 pandemic in other public institutions. The new PDO is “to increase access to electricity services for households, public institutions, and underserved micro, small and medium enterprises”. 27. Components and cost. Component 1 will be renamed to “Solar Hybrid Mini Grids for Economic Development” and revised to include one additional sub-component 1c: “COVID-19 Response” in the amount of US$77 million. The overall cost of Component 1 will not change. The budget of Component 4: “Technical Assistance” has been increased by US$10 million on the account of Component 2: “Stand-alone Solar Systems” to accommodate the additional management cost and technical assistance for adapting to the (post) COVID-19 environment (see Table 2 for details). Reallocation between disbursement categories will not be required since the IDA credit has only one category. The World Bank Nigeria Electrification Project (P161885) Table 2. IDA financing proposed use before and after restructuring (in US$ million) Description of (sub) components IDA financing Before After Difference restructuring restructuring Component 1: Solar Hybrid Mini Grids 150 150 - 1a: Minimum Subsidy Tender 70 25 -45 1b: Performance Based Grants 80 48 -32 1c: COVID-19 Response - 77 +77 Component 2: Stand-alone Solar Systems 75 65 -10 2a: Market Scale-up Challenge Grants 15 15 - 2b: Performance Based Grants 60 50 -10 Component 3: Energizing Education 105 105 - Component 4: Technical Assistance 20 30 +10 Grand Total 350 350 - 28. Disbursement estimates. Following the changes in the cost of project components, the disbursement estimates have been revised accordingly. 29. Results Framework. The results framework will be updated. The following new indicators are proposed to be added: (a) PDO indicator: Public health facilities with new or improved electricity service with target of 500 health facilities; (b) Two intermediate indicators: (i) Access to reliable electricity for facilities providing isolation and treatment services for the COVID-19 outbreak (target: 100 facilities); and (ii) Access to reliable electricity for PHC facilities (target: 400 facilities). 30. Other changes. The COVID-19 response will be implemented in two phases: Phase I will deploy standardized 50 kW solar hybrid power systems to 100 health facilities selected in coordination with NCDC and FMOH. These systems will be procured in 8 lots on an EPC basis, along with one-year O&M services, using the limited procurement method from companies that are already qualified under NEP and have sufficient inventory available in Nigeria. The REA’s Odyssey platform will be used for the submission of bids. The estimated investment costs are US$21 million. An Owner’s Engineer would be procured based on Consultant Qualification with an estimated cost of US$1.3 million. 31. Phase II would provide electricity to an estimated 400 primary healthcare facilities. These solar hybrid power systems would also be procured on an EPC plus one-year O&M basis but will use an international competitive procurement method. Again, the REA’s Odyssey Platform will be used for submission of bids. The estimated investment costs are US$49 million. An Owner’s Engineer would be procured based on an open competitive process. Furthermore, energy audits for these sites will be conducted, and a sustainability development consultant will be recruited to see through the transition of all 500 systems to the private sector for long-term ownership, operation and maintenance. The estimated costs for these services are US$4 million. Besides the need for reliable power, the 400 facilities will also be screened for the potential to convert into solar mini grids with the health facility as one of its anchor loads. It was agreed that at least 300 of the 500 system should transfer into mini grids over time. Changes in the Procurement Plan have been submitted in Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement (STEP). The two procurements for Phase 1 have also been submitted in STEP for review and approval. The Project Procurement The World Bank Nigeria Electrification Project (P161885) Strategy for Development (PPSD) for NEP has been updated to cover the COVID-19 activities and the related procurement plans have been cleared by the World Bank. 32. Safeguards. The 500 health facilities are in existing geographic area of the project and the nature and scale of works related to electrification will not be different to what was planned for original project (the proposed systems are similar to the mini grids for productive uses for small businesses and other similar facilities that were already integrated into the original project design). The addition of this component therefore changes neither the overall E&S risk profile nor the risk management approach of the project and does not require update to the existing Integrated Safeguards Data Sheet (ISDS). However, the addition of new localities requires the implementation of the E&S process as stipulated under ESMF and RPF. In particular, with regard to the land acquisition and use process, REA will encourage, where technically and financially feasible, to prioritize the use of existing infrastructure (rooftops, parking lot covers etc.) to minimize land acquisition. Where land acquisition is unavoidable, it will be small scale and will follow the RPF. The PMU will work with the companies and developers to ensure each company has an adequate ESMS in order to become eligible for financing and will review the E&S checklist to confirm projects category (I or II) and consequent E&S risk management plans will be prepared and implemented in line with the ESMS that developers must prepare and adopt to qualify for the program. III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Project's Development Objectives ✔ Results Framework ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Disbursement Estimates ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ Implementing Agency ✔ DDO Status ✔ PBCs ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Overall Risk Rating ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ EA category ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ The World Bank Nigeria Electrification Project (P161885) Institutional Arrangements ✔ Financial Management ✔ Procurement ✔ Implementation Schedule ✔ Economic and Financial Analysis ✔ Technical Analysis ✔ Social Analysis ✔ Environmental Analysis ✔ IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S) OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_PDO_TABLE PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE Current PDO The development objective is to increase access to electricity services for households, public educational institutions, and underserved micro, small and medium enterprises. Proposed New PDO The development objective is to increase access to electricity services for households, public institutions, and underserved micro, small and medium enterprises OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_COMPONENTS_TABLE COMPONENTS Current Current Proposed Proposed Cost Action Component Name Component Name Cost (US$M) (US$M) Solar Hybrid Mini Grids for Rural Solar Hybrid Mini Grids for 330.00 Revised 330.00 Economic Development Economic Development Stand-alone Solar Systems for Stand-alone Solar Systems for 305.00 Revised 295.00 Homes and MSMEs Homes and MSMEs Energizing Education 105.00 No Change Energizing Education 105.00 Technical assistance 25.00 Revised Technical assistance 35.00 TOTAL 765.00 765.00 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_DISBURSEMENT_TABLE DISBURSEMENT ESTIMATES Change in Disbursement Estimates The World Bank Nigeria Electrification Project (P161885) Yes Year Current Proposed 2018 0.00 0.00 2019 0.00 0.00 2020 24,908,937.13 26,079,327.13 2021 75,091,062.87 69,000,000.00 2022 85,000,000.00 85,000,000.00 2023 85,000,000.00 85,000,000.00 2024 80,000,000.00 84,920,672.87 2025 0.00 0.00 2026 0.00 0.00 2027 0.00 0.00 . The World Bank Nigeria Electrification Project (P161885) . Results framework COUNTRY: Nigeria Nigeria Electrification Project Project Development Objectives(s) The development objective is to increase access to electricity services for households, public educational institutions, and underserved micro, small and medium enterprises. Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Households provided with new electricity services Households provided with new electricity services (Number) 0.00 500,000.00 of which female headed households (Number) 0.00 50,000.00 Micro-, Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises (MSMEs) provided with new electricity services Micro-, Small-, and Medium-Sized Enterprises (MSMEs) with new 0.00 70,000.00 or improved electricity service (Number) ... of which female headed MSMEs (Number) 0.00 7,000.00 Public institutions provided with new or improved electricity services (Action: This Objective has been Revised) Federal universities and university teaching hospitals with new or 0.00 7.00 improved electricity service (Number) Public health facilities with new or improved electricity service 0.00 500.00 (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator is New The indicator measures the number of public health facilities that have received new or improved electricity service through NEP. The indicator includes direct access to electricity, which is measured as the number of public health facilities that The World Bank Nigeria Electrification Project (P161885) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target benefited from new energy services via mini-grids and stand-alone solar systems. Throughout the project, the number of public health facilities connected to mini-grids and stand-alone solar systems will be monitored. People provided with new or improved electricity service People provided with new or improved electricity service (CRI, 0.00 2,500,000.00 Number) PDO Table SPACE Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Solar Hybrid Mini Grids for Economic Development (Action: This Component has been Revised) Households provided with access to electricity by mini grids 0.00 300,000.00 (Number) ...of which headed by women (Percentage) 0.00 10.00 MSMEs provided with access to electricity by mini grids 0.00 30,000.00 (Amount(USD)) ...of which headed by women (Percentage) 0.00 10.00 Percentage of women of total number of people employed by 16.00 20.00 mini grid and off-grid companies (Percentage) Volume of results-based financing channeled to private sector 0.00 150,000,000.00 mini grid developers (Amount(USD)) Annual publication of feedback received from citizens reached through the consumer education and citizen engagement No Yes program (Yes/No) The World Bank Nigeria Electrification Project (P161885) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Increased productive uses of electricity for female headed 0.00 5.00 businesses and female famers etc (Percentage) New generation capacity of renewable energy (solar) installed 0.00 85.00 (Megawatt) Access to reliable electricity for facilities providing isolation and 0.00 100.00 treatment services for the COVID-19 outbreak (Number) Action: This indicator is New Access to reliable electricity for primary healthcare facilities 0.00 400.00 (Number) Action: This indicator is New Stand-alone Solar Systems for Homes and MSME Households provided with access to electricity by stand-alone 0.00 300,000.00 solar systems (Number) …of which headed by women (Percentage) 0.00 10.00 MSMEs provided with access to electricity by stand-alone 0.00 40,000.00 systems (Number) …of which headed by women (Percentage) 0.00 10.00 Volume of results-based financing channeled to private sector 0.00 75,000,000.00 stand-alone solar system providers (Amount(USD)) New generation capacity of renewable energy (solar) installed 0.00 15.00 (Megawatt) Energizing Education Federal universities with new or improved electricity service 0.00 7.00 (Number) The World Bank Nigeria Electrification Project (P161885) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Federal universities with a teaching hospital with new or 0.00 2.00 improved electricity service (Number) New capacity of renewable energy (solar) installed (Megawatt) 0.00 19.00 IO Table SPACE The World Bank Nigeria Electrification Project (P161885)