MONITORING IMPACTS OF COVID-19 ROUND 18
AND OTHER SHOCKS MAR 2024
Publication Date
Aziz Atamanov, Frédéric Cochinard, John Ilukor, Audrey Kemigisha, Talip Kilic, Andrew Mupere, and Giulia Ponzini
BACKGROUND
In June 2020, the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), in collaboration with the World Bank, officially launched the Uganda
High-Frequency Phone Survey (UHFPS) to track the impacts of the COVID -19 pandemic regularly. In June 2022, the survey
UGANDA
expanded to monitor economic sentiments and the socioeconomic implications of other shocks, such as the Russia -
Ukraine war, the Ebola outbreak, and extreme weather events. In addition, the survey is also being used to collect percep-
tions on different development policies and programs. The UHFPS aimed to re -contact the entire sample of households
interviewed during the Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS) 2019/20 round, which had phone numbers for at least one
household member or a reference individual. The sample was refreshed in the 13 th round, conducted in July/August 2023,
by adding households from the Uganda National Household Survey 2019/20. The timeline of each round is shown in Table
1. This brief focuses on the socio-economic well-being of Ugandans reported in the last 18th round conducted in March
2024.
Table 1. Number of completed interviews by round
R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18
(Dec 22/Jan 23)
(June/July 22)
(Oct/Nov 22)
(Feb/Mar 23)
(Mar/Apr 21)
(July/Aug 20)
(July/Aug 23)
(Aug/Sep 23)
(Oct/Nov 23)
(Oct/Nov 20)
(Oct/Nov 21)
(Jan/Feb 24)
(Sep/Oct 20)
(March 24)
(June 20)
(Feb 21)
(Dec 23)
(Aug 22)
Interviews 2227 2199 2147 2136 2122 2100 1950 1881 1871 1668 1666 1783 1765 1838 1729 1795 1761 1770
KEY FINDINGS
• The employment rate recovered after a seasonal decline in January/February and increased to 79 percent in March
2024. Employment share in agriculture reached its maximum level since 2020 - 64 percent.
• About a third of all respondents reported operating a family business in their households since August 2023, and 55
percent experienced difficulties in buying inputs and raising money for the business.
• For the first time since 2020, respondents from the richest top consumption quintile felt more likely to be negatively
affected by extreme weather events than those from the poorest quintile. This may be related to heat waves and de-
layed rains affecting residents of the affluent Central region.
• More than 40 percent of respondents continue to have poor or borderline food consumption scores. Consumption of
iron-rich food products was the lowest among respondents, followed by consumption of vitamin A and protein -rich
products.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic sentiments and subjective economic wellbeing
Respondents' sentiments about current and future household financial well -being changed only slightly in March com-
pared to January/February 2024. Figure 1 shows that about 45 percent of the respondents in December 2023 felt their
household financial well-being was lower than 12 months before. This share dropped by ten percentage points to 35 per-
cent in January/February 2024 and reached 38 percent in March 2024. Negative expectations about future household fi-
nancial well-being in the 12 months ahead declined from 23 percent in December 2023 to 17 percent in January/February
2024 and increased slightly to 19 percent in March 2024 (Figure 2).
Respondents became slightly less optimistic about the current country ’s economic situation but did not change expecta-
tions about the future. Figure 3 and Figure 4 show respondents’ views on the current and future economic situation of
the country. Negative views on the current economic situation slightly increased from 39 percent in January/February to
44 percent in February/March 2024. However, there was almost no change in expectations about the future country ’s
economic situation. About 32 percent of respondents had positive expectations in March compared to 33 percent in Janu-
ary/February 2024.
© 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank
MONITORING IMPACTS OF COVID-19 AND
Figure 1. Views about current household financial well-being Figure 2. Expectations about future household financial well-being
compared to 12 months ago across rounds, % during the next 12 months across rounds, %
Figure 3. Views about the current country's economic situation Figure 4. Expectations about the future country's economic situa-
compared to 12 months ago across rounds, % tion across rounds, %
Little or no changes were reported regarding household income, ability to meet minimum needs, and overall happiness
in March compared to January/February 2024. Figure 5 shows different subjective indicators of well -being reported by
respondents. The results are mixed with slight changes across time. Thus, more respondents in March felt that they lived
well and were happy compared to January/February 2024. In contrast, fewer respondents felt that their income had
increased or stayed the same and that their food consumption and standards of received health care were adequate
during the same period.
Figure 5. Different subjective indicators across rounds, % Figure 6. Share of respondents who feel extreme weather events
are likely to affect household wellbeing, %
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MONITORING IMPACTS OF COVID-19 AND OTHER
For the first time since the launch of the high-frequency phone survey, more respondents from the richest consumption
quintile expected extreme weather events to negatively affect them compared to those from the poorest quintile. As
shown in Figure 6, about 38 percent of respondents felt that extreme weather events would likely negatively affect their
households financially during the next 12 months. For the first time, respondents from the richest consumption quintile
were more preoccupied about extreme weather events than respondents from the poorest quintile (39 versus 27 percent,
respectively). This happened because respondents from the more affluent Central region reported much higher expecta-
tions of being affected by very high temperatures and delayed rains than usual. Thus, for example, 32 and 39 percent of
respondents in the Central region expected to be affected by delayed rains and high temperatures in January/February
2024. However, these shares rose to 44 and 66 percent in March 2024, coinciding with the high temperatures hitting
Uganda during this period.
Employment and family business
The employment rate among respondents returned to 79 percent in March after a seasonal drop observed in January/
February 2024. In Figure 7 the data shows that the share of respondents working during the seven days before the inter-
view increased from 75 percent in January/February to 79 percent in March 2024. The increase in employment was ob-
served in rural and urban areas but mostly from the agricultural sector, which accounted for 64 percent of overall employ-
ment—the highest level since 2020.
Figure 7. Working respondents across rounds, %
Note: Data is treated as a cross-section.
Figure 8. Events affecting family non-farm business during last 6 Figure 9. Incidence of difficulties family non-farm business
months, % experiences during last 6 months, %
Note: Multiple answers are allowed
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MONITORING IMPACTS OF COVID-19 AND
About a third of all respondents reported operating family businesses in their households since August 2023. They were
asked if their businesses had been affected by different events during the last six months. About 32 percent of them men-
tioned an increase in the prices of business inputs, 20 percent mentioned an increase in petrol prices, 14 percent men-
tioned an increase in food prices, 11 percent mentioned an increase in transportation prices, and the remaining ones men-
tioned an increase in prices of other fuel, higher insecurity, and other events (Figure 8). As a result of these and other
events, more than 55 percent of family business owners experienced difficulties in buying inputs and raising money for the
business (Figure 9).
Food consumption score and nutritional quality
More than 40 percent of respondents continue to have poor or borderline food consumption scores (FCS) in March
2024. The Food Consumption Score (FCS) aggregates respondents’ data on the diversity and frequency of food groups con-
sumed over the seven-day period before the interview. The index is then weighed according to the relative nutritional val-
ue of the consumed food groups. Eight percent of households had poor FCS, 34 percent had borderline values of FCS, and
58 percent had an acceptable food consumption score (Figure 10). These results are close to reported values in January/
February 2024. Expectedly, respondents from the poorest bottom consumption quintile and those residing in the Eastern
region have lower FCS. Thus, only 45 percent of households from the poorest consumption quintile had an acceptable food
consumption score compared to 68 percent among the households from the richest top quintile.
Figure 10: Respondents by food consumption score in January/ Figure 11. Share of respondents who never consumed protein, iron,
February and March 2024, % and Vitamin A rich foods during seven days reported in March 2024,
%
Notes: A household's food consumption status is defined by the following thresholds: 0 -21: Poor; 21.5-35: Borderline; >35: Acceptable.
The incidence of respondents consuming iron -rich products is much lower compared to those consuming products rich
in vitamin A and protein. Figure 11 shows the shares of respondents who never consumed products rich in vitamin A,
protein, and iron during the last seven days. Overall, seven out of ten respondents consumed no iron -rich products during
the last seven days. For comparison, 35 percent of respondents have not consumed any vitamin A -rich products, and only
six percent have not consumed protein-rich products during the same time. Lower consumption of iron -rich products may
be related to affordability since most respondents in urban and rural areas acquire them in the market and not from home
production.
Data Notes: the UGANDA High Frequency Phone Survey Eighteenth Round was implemented by the
Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) in March 2024. This survey is part of a World Bank global effort to
support countries in their data collection efforts to monitor the impact of COVID-19 and other
shocks. A World Bank team from the Development Data Group and the Poverty and Equity Global
Practice provided technical support. This survey is the Eighteenth of a planned 18 waves of the High
Frequency Phone Survey of households in Uganda. 2,421 successfully interview households from the
2019/20 Uganda National Panel Survey were contacted and 1,738 households in the Nineth Round. In
the 10th Round, 1,668 households were successfully interviewed. In the 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th,
16th and 17th Round, 1,666, 1,783, 1,765, 1,838, 1,729, 1,795, 1,761 households were successfully
interviewed. In this Round 1,770 households were successfully interviewed. The data are representa-
tive at the regional and national level and survey weights were calculated to adjust for non-response
and undercoverage.
For further details on the data, visit https://www.worldbank.org/lsms-covid19
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