MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT Final report Technical Assistant Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Climate Change Adaptation in the Road Transport Sector and Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector Disclaimer © 2022 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522- 2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. ii Foreword Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) comprises two elements, namely mitigation and adaptation. Vietnam’s NDC states that climate change adaptation must be linked to sustainable development. A clear link is also recognized between the mitigation and adaptation elements of the NDC. The Vietnamese government has pledged to reduce the country’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. In 2014, the transport sector contributed around 18 percent of energy-related GHG emissions in Vietnam. It is projected under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario that the emissions will increase dramatically, by 2.89 times, between 2014 and 2030. Vietnam’s current NDC provides a comprehensive set of mitigation actions in the transport sector, including switching to lower-carbon fuels (compressed natural gas, or CNG, in urban buses; biofuels for road vehicles) and using domestic resources. The Vietnamese government has identified an adaptation strategy that includes enhancing adaptation efficiency by strengthening state management and resources; increasing the resilience and adaptive capacity of communities, economic sectors, and ecological systems; and reducing disaster risks and minimizing damages, getting ready to cope with increased natural disasters and climate extremes due to climate change. With regard to the road sector, Vietnam’s updated 2020 NDC recognizes that both national and local road networks are at risk of being heavily impacted by climate change. For a sustainable and climate adaptive road network, an adaptation facilitation envelope that is covered by a National Climate Change Adaptation Policy to create a Financial Space by Master Planning through Climate-Aware and Adaptation Regulatory Framework should be defined. A mitigation report prepared by the World Bank’s Vietnam country and local teams, Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution: Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases Emissions in the Transport Sector, with two components—E19 (Promotion of biofuels for vehicles) and E20 (Promotion of CNG buses in transportation)—presents the efforts and achievements in deploying biofuels for road vehicles and promotion of CNG buses in urban areas in Vietnam, analyzes the barriers and possible measures for promoting the use of biofuels for road vehicle and CNG buses, and estimates the impact on GHG emissions in the BAU scenario and the mitigation scenario. The mitigation report features a comprehensive overview of barriers for promoting the uptake of biofuels for road vehicles and CNG buses in urban areas in Vietnam and uses a bottom-up forecasting approach and analyses to quantify the impact of biofuels and CNG buses on GHG emissions from the transport sector by 2030. Based on result findings, our analysis informs policy makers and other key stakeholders about policy options to promote biofuels and CNG buses. iii A climate adaptation report prepared by the World Bank’s Vietnam country and technical team, Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution: Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector, presents the achievement in establishing the adaptation facilitation by the Master Road Network Planning Vision 2050 which was under assessment of climate adaptation, the efforts on improvement of the climate adaption regulatory framework for road transport sector. The adaptation report defines specific technical standards and specifications for improvement. The report also measures for climate adaptation based on a review of the existing regulatory framework for the road transport sector, international best practice in the Vietnamese context, and the experience of climate change impacts and climate resilience in Vietnam. This report will help the Ministry of Transport (MoT) develop a road map to implement the next steps. I am grateful for the close collaboration between the World Bank and MoT, through the Department of Environment and the Department of Science Technology, Environment and International Corporation, Directorate for Roads of Vietnam. This report has been prepared at a critical time. The government of Vietnam is setting out its vision and strategy for climate-smart transport with the goal of minimizing the carbon footprint of the transport sector while ensuring its resilience against future risks. I expect this study will provide direction for policy makers to explore suitable policy instruments that facilitate the deployment of biofuels and CNG buses in Vietnam, and to establish the climate adaptation regulatory framework under a national climate adaptation policy that contributes to Vietnam developing a low-carbon and climate-resilient transport sector. Le Anh Tuan Vice Minister Ministry of Transport Vietnam iv Acknowledgements This report was prepared for Vietnam’s Ministry of Transport and the World Bank under the World Bank’s technical assistance. The team of principal authors was led by Phuong Thi Minh Tran (senior transport specialist), with support from Thu Thi Le Nguyen (senior environmental specialist), Stephen Ling (lead environmental specialist), Dinesh Aryal (sector coordinator and senior environmental specialist), and included: John Allen Rogers (senior climate change consultant), Maria Cordeiro (senior climate change and transport consultant), Jasper R. Cook (chartered geologist and road and climate adaptation consultant), Tran Thi Kim Dang (associate professor at the University of Transport and Communications; UTC), Ly Hai Bang (University of Transport Technology), Vu Anh Tuan (UTC), An Minh Ngoc (UTC), Tran Minh Tu (independent consultant), and Diep Anh Tuan (independent consultant). The broader team that provided inputs to the report include Bui Ngoc Hung (Institute of Transport Science and Technology), Nguyen Kim Thanh (UTC), Hoang Van Dai (Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change), Tran Viet Hung (Hanoi University of Civil Engineering), Le Anh Tuan (Hanoi University of Science and Technology), Dinh Thi Thanh Binh (UTC), Huynh Duc Nguyen (Vietnamese-German University), Nguyen Thanh Tu (UTC), and Nguyen Van Dung (UTC, Campus 2). The report was edited by Ashish Kumar Sen. The team extends its appreciation to the World Bank’s Ranjit Lamech (regional director of the World Bank Infrastructure Department in the East Asia and Pacific region), Benedict L.J. Eijbergen (transport practice manager, East Asia and the Pacific), Carolyn Turk (Vietnam country director), Stefanie Stallmeister (operations manager for Vietnam), Rahul Kitchlu (program leader, Infrastructure Practice Group in Vietnam), and Shigeyuki Sakaki (transport program coordinator for Vietnam) for the guidance that they provided. The report was prepared in collaboration with the Vietnamese government, particularly through the focal transport program coordinator for Vietnam point at the Ministry of Transport, the Department of Environment led by General Director Tran Anh Duong. The team is also thankful for the support provided by To Nam Toan, Director, Department of Science Technology, Environment and International Corporation, Directorate for Roads of Vietnam. The team also appreciates the excellent production support provided by Nguyen Mai Trang, Dinh Thuy Quyen, Ira Chairani Triasdewi (administration), and Le Thi Quynh Anh, Nguyen Hong Ngan (communications). v About the Authors Authors listed in the order of their respective report chapters. PHUONG THI MINH TRAN is a senior transport specialist at the World Bank with a background in transport policy, operations, and strategy. Phuong has led several investment projects and technical assistance for Vietnam covering a broad range of transport sector issues. Phuong is a transport task team leader and oversees and coordinates a large-scale road and inland waterway portfolio of World Bank-financed projects in Vietnam. She has led several knowledge pieces on the impact of climate change in transport, climate-resilient mitigation and adaptation, transport connectivity, road and inland waterway assets management, geospatial road asset management, and women- led rural road maintenance. She works closely with groups in related fields, such as governance, public sector reform, social development, social and environmental safeguards, decentralization, and public finance, to maximize the sharing of ideas across World Bank units and with outside agencies. Phuong holds a master’s degree in public policy from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy of the National University of Singapore. Her work has championed transport partnership coordination activities in rural roads and national highway assets management. She has promoted appropriate technical standards and has managed surfacing trials as well as successfully conducted knowledge exchanges and lessons learned in these areas with other countries. THU THI LE NGUYEN is a senior environmental specialist with the World Bank’s Environment, Natural Resources and Blue Economy (ENB) Global Practice based in Hanoi. Le Thu has led a number of projects and technical assistance covering a broad range of environmental and climate change issues. Her analytics, policy, and project work span various themes, including air quality, solid and plastic waste, carbon pricing, climate planning, and financing. Le Thu has coordinated policy dialogues with government counterparts for a series of climate change and green growth development policy lending to Vietnam. Her recent analytical knowledge work is on air quality management for Hanoi, which used quality data and state-of-the-art modelling to identify the key sources of pollution and policy options to bring clean air to the city as well as climate change co- benefit. STEPHEN LING is a lead environmental specialist at the World Bank. He coordinated the environment team, supporting its work on climate change throughout the East Asia and Pacific region, and co-led several climate-focused lending and analytical activities in Vietnam. He has a background in ecology and worked in biodiversity conservation in Southeast Asia prior to joining the World Bank. At the World Bank, he has focused on climate change, landscape management, and the environmental aspects of large infrastructure projects, and has led a variety of projects and studies in East Asia, Africa, and Eastern Europe. Stephen holds a doctorate in environmental science and bioeconomics. DINESH ARYAL is the sector coordinator and senior environmental specialist in Vietnam. Dinesh’s career at the World Bank spans 22 years. He started out as a consultant for the Social Development vi team in 1998 and now serves as sector coordinator and senior environmental specialist at the Environment, Natural Resources and Blue Economy (ENB) Global Practice in Vietnam. Before his current tenure, he served in the same position in the World Bank’s Indonesia office. Prior to Indonesia, Dinesh led design and implementation of projects in the environmental and natural resources management sectors in the Africa Region for six years and prior to that served as senior operations officer in the Latin America and the Caribbean Region from 2004 to 2011, providing portfolio quality support and leading preparation/delivery of and implementing several projects. He also worked with the Global Environment Facility (GEF) Coordination Team in the Environment Department, providing operations support to GEF task team leaders and portfolio management quality, including mainstreaming GEF operations in the World Bank system. MARIA CORDEIRO is a senior consultant and a former senior transport specialist at the World Bank. Maria works with project teams globally to integrate climate change considerations into the preparation and design of lending operations. Maria also contributes to the provision of technical assistance to client countries to support planning and the deployment of low-carbon resilient transport policies and measures. Before joining the World Bank, Maria worked with governments in Latin America, the Middle East, and Europe, and worked with other multinational development banks and research centers in the environment, transport, and international development fields. Maria has a Global MBA from the IE Business School in Spain, a master’s degree in Environment Management from Nottingham Trent University in the United Kingdom, and a bachelor’s degree in environmental sciences and energy technologies from the University of Glamorgan/South Wales in the United Kingdom. JOHN ALLEN ROGERS is an engineer specialized in emissions and low-carbon development, particularly in transport and energy. Through multilateral development banks and bilateral organizations, he has provided technical support to many low- and middle-income countries to enhance green growth—low emissions and low-carbon development planning—in the transport and energy sectors. With the World Bank, he has designed and applied emissions and energy models for many low-carbon development studies covering the power sector and transport in Latin America, Europe, Africa, and Asia, analyzing user activity and resultant emissions with associated costs and benefits, in transport as well as in the power, industry, and building sectors (nonresidential and household energy demand). JASPER R. COOK is a chartered geologist and road and climate adaptation specialist with an undergraduate degree in geology from the University of Strathclyde in the United Kingdom, an MSc in engineering geology from Imperial College London in the United Kingdom, and a PhD in civil engineering from the University of Strathclyde. He has more than 45 years of experience as an engineering geologist, geotechnical engineer, and climate resilience specialist primarily in the fields of transport infrastructure development, construction materials, capacity building, and research management. Over 30 years of this time has been spent on in-country projects with emerging nations in Africa and Asia. TRAN THI KIM DANG is an associate professor at the University of Transport and Communications in Vietnam. She is a road consultant specialist and is the leader of the local consultant transport team. She has participated in technical assistance on transport and road engineering, and on climate change adaptation for many infrastructure projects funded by the World Bank in Vietnam. She has vii 30 years of experience in road and traffic engineering, especially in road construction materials, pavement structures, road management, and maintenance. She holds a PhD in road engineering from the University of Transport and Communications in Vietnam. Her current research at the University of Transport and Communications focuses on climate change-adaptive road construction materials, pavement structure deterioration, and road asset management. BUI NGOC HUNG is a senior road specialist and heads the Science and Technology Department at the Institute of Transport Science and Technology in Vietnam. He is experienced in road, traffic engineering, and airfield pavement, especially pavement structure; road and airfield construction materials; and road management. He graduated with a doctorate in transport construction engineering from the Institute of Transport Science and Technology. He received master’s degree from Hanoi University of Civil Engineering and a bachelor’s degree in road engineering from the University of Transport and Communications in Vietnam. LY HAI BANG is a transport specialist and lecturer at the University of Transport Technology in Vietnam. He has a background in civil engineering, construction materials, structural engineering, and geotechnical engineering. He also leads the research group Application of Industry 4.0 Technologies in Transportation (I4T) at the University of Transport Technology, where he works as a data scientist and machine learning researcher. He holds a PhD in mechanics from the University of Paris-Est in France. He is now concentrating his efforts on climate change, sustainable development, digital transformation, and cutting-edge transportation technologies. NGUYEN KIM THANH is an expert in the field of bridges and disaster prevention. His professional experience includes bridge structure, foundation and geotechnical engineering, and climate change-related landslide prevention and mitigation. He is a researcher at the Institute of Transport Science and Technology in Vietnam. He is working on obtaining his PhD from the Tohoku Gakuin University in Japan. He holds a master’s degree in bridge and tunnel engineering and bachelor’s degree in bridge and road design automation, both of which he obtained from the University of Transport and Communications in Vietnam. HOANG VAN DAI is a senior hydrology and climate change specialist. He also serves as the deputy director of the Hydrometeorology and Climate Change Consulting and Service Center at the Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change (IMHEN) in Vietnam. He holds a doctoral degree in hydrology from IMHEN, and a master’s and bachelor’s degree in hydrology from Hanoi University of Science in Vietnam. His expertise and experience include issues related to hydrology, for example, floods, droughts, flashfloods, forecasting, and climate change. His work covers remote sensing applications and hydrology, hydraulic, and climate change modeling. TRAN VIET HUNG is a senior bridge specialist and lecturer at the Hanoi University of Civil Engineering in Vietnam. He has an undergraduate degree from Hanoi University of Civil Engineering in Vietnam, and master’s and doctoral degrees from the University of Washington in the United States. He has taught and conducted research in several areas of bridge engineering, earthquake engineering, and climate change resilience. Most recently, he has conducted work on precast and pre-stressed concrete structures, concrete bridges, and climate change adaptation and resilience. viii VU ANH TUAN is a lecturer at the University of Transport and Communications and independent consultant. He leads projects on transport planning and traffic management. He has managed infrastructure performances, designed travel surveys, performed transport demand modeling, prepared business plans and engineering designs, and served as team leader in several transport master plan studies. He holds a master’s degree in transport planning and traffic engineering, especially in traffic modelling, from the National University of Road & Bridge and University of Paris 12 in France, and a bachelor’s degree in civil engineering from the University of Transport and Communications in Vietnam. AN MINH NGOC is a senior transport specialist and lecturer at the University of Transport and Communications in Vietnam. Her professional experience includes work on traffic management and policy advisories in Vietnam. At the University of Transport and Communications, Ngoc worked in the Transport Planning and Management Section. She served on the transport research team and managed teams that implemented transport projects in Vietnam. She holds a doctoral degree in transport planning and traffic management from the Technical University of Darmstadt in Germany, a master’s degree in transport economics from the University of Transport and Communications in Vietnam, and a bachelor’s degree in mathematics-statistics-informatics from the National Economic University in Vietnam. TRAN MINH TU is a transport specialist in transport planning in Vietnam. His areas of specialization are transport and land use planning, transport and climate change, traffic safety policies, travel demand modelling, and travel behavior analysis. He holds both master’s and doctoral degrees in transport engineering from Hiroshima University in Japan, and a bachelor’s degree in transport planning from the University of Transport and Communications in Vietnam. DIEP ANH TUAN is an independent consultant on traffic, transport, and transport-related greenhouse gas emissions. He worked for the World Bank on projects related to climate change in the transport sector, including calculating GHG emission by models, and evaluated the impacts of policies on reducing GHG emissions in Vietnam. He also has experience in traffic engineering and transport planning, urban planning, public transport system design, data collection, and processing. Tuan holds a Master of Science degree in traffic and transport from the Vietnamese-German University in Vietnam in collaboration with the Technical University of Darmstadt in Germany, and a bachelor’s degree in transport planning from the University of Transport and Communications in Vietnam. ix x Technical Assistance Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution: Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector World Bank Support Team Final Report 2 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Abbreviations and Acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank CC Climate Change CAP Climate Action Plan CCA Climate Change Adaptation CCM Climate Change Mitigation CCR Climate Change Resilience CRM Climate Resilience Management CVA Climate Vulnerability Assessment CIF Climate Investment Funds (CIF). CRM Climate Resilience Management DoR Department of Roads DRM Disaster Risk Management DRVN Directorate for Roads of Việt Nam GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery) LRAMP Local Roads Asset Management Project MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment MoT Ministry of Transport MRNP Master Road Network Plan NAP National Adaptation Plan NAPCC National Action Plan on Climate Change NDC National Determined Contribution SER Strategic Environment Assessment Report SLR Sea Level Rise TA Technical Assistance ToR Terms of Reference UNFCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WB World Bank Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 3 4 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Contents 1 Introduction.................................................................................................................... 17 1.1 Background....................................................................................................................................... 17 1.2 TA Objectives.................................................................................................................................... 17 1.3 Work Undertaken............................................................................................................................ 18 1.4 Report Structure.............................................................................................................................. 19 2 MoT Document Review.................................................................................................. 20 3 Climate Change in Vietnam........................................................................................... 22 3.1 Climate Change and Consequences........................................................................................ 22 3.2 Climate Change Impacts on the Vietnam Road Network................................................. 22 3.3 Regional Variations in Adaption Requirements................................................................... 25 4 A Framework for Climate Change Adaptation............................................................ 28 4.1 Key Elements..................................................................................................................................... 28 4.2 Adaptation Options ....................................................................................................................... 29 5 The Vietnam Regulatory Framework for Climate Change Adaptation...................... 32 5.1 Road Design, Construction and Maintenance...................................................................... 32 5.2 Bridge Design, Construction and Maintenance................................................................... 35 6 Good Practice for Climate Change Adaptation for Road Networks.......................... 36 6.1 General ............................................................................................................................................... 36 6.2 Adaptation Measures: International Guidance, Best Practices, Experience............... 37 6.2.1. Organizational and Decision-Making Processes.................................................................. 37 6.2.2. Technical Options............................................................................................................................ 38 6.2.3. Procedural and Operational Options....................................................................................... 38 6.2.4. Information Flow and ICT Support........................................................................................... 39 6.2.5. Decision and Risk Models............................................................................................................. 39 6.2.6. Legislative Options......................................................................................................................... 39 7 Lessons learnt from road transport project program for climate change adaptation......................................................................................................... 40 7.1 National and local road network development planning ............................................... 40 7.2 Typical current WB road projects and program in Vietnam............................................. 40 7.2.1. VRAMP (Vietnam Road Asset Management Project).......................................................... 40 7.2.2. LRAMP (Local Road Asset Management Programme)....................................................... 41 7.2.3. CHCIP (Central Highland Connectivity Improvement Project)....................................... 41 7.3 Typical road planning and road projects under domestic fund..................................... 41 Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 5 8 Adaptation Measures in the Vietnam Context............................................................. 43 8.1 General ............................................................................................................................................... 43 8.2 Organizational and Decision-Making Processes.................................................................. 43 8.3 Technical Options............................................................................................................................ 45 8.4 Procedural and Operational Options....................................................................................... 47 8.5 Information Flow and ICT Support........................................................................................... 48 8.6 Decision and Risk Models............................................................................................................. 49 8.7 Legislative Options......................................................................................................................... 49 9 Summary of Experience on Updating Standards........................................................ 51 10 Ways Forward................................................................................................................. 52 Annex A: A listing of Relevant Domestic, Regional and International Guidance on Climate Change Resilience....................................................................................................................... 54 Annex B: Summaries of Key Domestic, Regional and International Guidance and Experience with Integration of CCR in Transport Planning........................................................... 63 Annex C: Design, Construction and Maintenance Standards Review for Climate Adaptation........... 78 Annex D: Technical Issues from Key Informant Interview................................................................................ 94 Annex E: Working Papers by Team Members....................................................................................................... 98 6 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Executive Summary Introduction Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines that climate change adaptation must be linked to sustainable development. A clear link is also recognized between the mitigation and adaptation elements of the NDC. The identified adaptation strategic tasks are: (i) enhancing adaptation efficiency through strengthening state management and resources; (ii) increasing the resilience and adaptive capacity of communities, economic sectors and ecological systems; (iii) reducing disaster risks and minimizing damages, getting ready to cope with increased natural disasters and climate extremes due to climate change. As regards the road sector, the updated NDC recognizes that both national and local road networks are at risk of being heavily impacted by climate change. The current Technical Assistance (TA) as a whole comprises both Mitigation and Adaptation elements. The Adaptation TA has two complementary objectives: 1. Advice on the embedment of climate resilience adaptation into transport planning and implementation at National and Local levels. 2. Reviewing and recommending improvement to the regulatory framework relevant to the design, construction and maintenance of climate resilient roads and bridges in Vietnam. In line with the TA objectives the following work has been undertaken: 1. Inception Report: submitted in December 2020. 2. Review and comment on two MoT documents: “Vietnam Road Network Master Planning” and “Strategic Environmental Assessment Report” were submitted on 15th March 2021. 3. A review of road and bridges design standards and specifications relevant to climate impact. 4. Summary of key climate change update requirements for the regulatory framework. 5. Discussion of feasibility of revisions in standards, practices, and specifications with key decision makers in DRVN/MoT as part of Project Workshop. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 7 This document reports on items 2-5 above, and additionally contains a number of annexes, as follows: Annex A A listing of Relevant A listing of references on relevant domestic, regional and Domestic, Regional and international guidance, standards and best practices in climate International Guidance on change adaptation. Climate Change Resilience Annex B Summaries of Key A listing of references and responding key contents of knowledges Domestic, Regional and and experience of Integration of CCR in Transport Planning International Guidance and Experience with Integration of CCR in Transport Planning Annex C Design, construction and Details of the review and recommendations to strengthen key maintenance standards standards relating to road and bridge design, construction and review for climate maintenance for climate adaptation. adaptation. Annex D Technical Issues from Key Technical Issues from Key Informant Interview for experiences and Informant Interview practical lessons to be learnt of climate change adaptation. Annex E Working Papers by Team Detailed working papers by WB TA Team members that formed the Members basis for the main report text. Annex F NDC – Climate Adaptation Notes on the NDC – Climate Adaptation Workshop and discussion Workshop Report outputs for final report. MoT Document Review Reviews and comments were requested from the Adaptation Team on the following documents: • Document A: Strategic Environmental Assessment Report. • Document B: Vietnam Road Network Master Planning The TA Team comments on the draft version of the Master Planning and report as summarized in Table ES1. 8 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution TABLE ES1. Summary of NDC – CCA Team Comments Adaptation Issue in Noted WB ToR Recommended Activities 1. CRA linked to sustainable development. Revise MP for strengthening sustainable development links to CCA 2. Key sectors and regions for CCA Revise MP & SER with further discussion of CCA of key regions 3. CCA for urban infrastructure. Revise MP & SER with further discussion on the CRA and urban infrastructure 4. Appreciation that design standards not flexible Revise MP & SER with addition of analysis on design enough for CCA. standards/guideline for CR 5. Review of existing road and bridges standards None and specifications. 6. Recommend improvement of the technical None standards. 7, Way forward to apply recommendations, Revise MP & SER to add mapping to CVA 8, An understanding of the relationships between Revise MP with more detailed information CC cause and effect within an holistic matrix. 9. Climate resilience to be planned and Revise MP to show the planning & plan implementation implemented within a CRM framework. follows CRM framework Revise SER with the CRM assessment 10. Strengthening drainage infrastructure as a Revise MP include drainage infrastructure strengthening priority. 11. Develop good practice guidance on None appropriate, technical design and construction standards. 12. Review of relevant regional and international None guidance and best practices for CCA 13. Identification of opportunities to mainstream Revise MP to identify opportunities of mainstream CCA in CCA in Vietnam road, bridge and drainage systems Vietnam road, bridge and drainage systems design and design and construction. construction. 14. The requirements for CVA at different project Revise MP & SER briefing the requirements for CVA levels and CCA at different road classification at different project levels and CRA at different road levels. classification levels 15. Risk prioritization; the provision of guidance Revise MP & SER briefing for the Risk prioritization & and requirements on the selection and cost requirements on the selection and cost assessment of CCA. assessment of CCA. The recommendations on MP and SER, and the contributions to SER from NDC – CCA team have been included in the final version of the MP and SER. The Master Planning of Road Network Development 2021-2030, vision 2050 has been approved by Prime Minister of Vietnam, the Decision No.1454/ QĐ-Ttg dated 1/9/2021. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 9 Climate Change in Vietnam Global climate change projections indicate a combination of gradual changes to average climatic conditions and increasing frequency, severity and location of extreme weather or “shock” events. The current climatic environment, with its variability and frequency of extreme weather events, when associated with its physical environment, makes Vietnam potentially highly susceptible to climate impacts. The risks arising from these impacts on the road network are considerably increased when the likelihood of increasing climate threats from future climate change is taken into account. Specific impacts have been identified as a consequence of • Increased rainfall • Storms • Increased temperature • Sea level rise The consequent impacts are then grouped in terms of • Road Pavement • Road Cuts and Embankment • Subgrade • Bridge and Drainage • Project Preparation & Design • Road Works Construction • Road Network Management & Maintenance Regional variations occur in adaptation requirements in response to regional variations in climate threats: Red River Delta and Mid-N region Flood, storm, cyclone Northern Coastal area Storm surge flood, storm, flood, cyclone Northern Mountains Flash flood, flood, landslide, cyclone Central Coastal region Storm surge flood, flash flood, cyclone, salt-water intrusion. Highland area Drought, flash flood, forest fire South East region Storm, flash flood, forest fire Coastal area of the Mekong Delta Flood salt-water intrusion, forest fire Central Mekong Delta Flood, drought, whirlwind, storm 10 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution A Framework for Climate Change Adaptation Figure ES1 indicates the key elements of a framework within which embedment of sustainable climate resilience has to take place. FIGURE ES1. Strategic Framework for Sustainable Climate Resilience National Policy, in conjunction with Ministerial policies and directives, is the basic driver for the adoption of climate resilience and adaptation as a required process in road projects. Technical Guidance on the appropriate selection, design and construction of adaptation measures is an essential tool. Guidelines should also serve to interpret standards for application in an appropriate and logical manner. Regulatory Framework and Standards provide the necessary environment within which climate resilience can be effectively applied. Financial Space. Whilst the provision of effective well-designed climate resilience is certainly beneficial in terms of whole-life engineering and economic terms, it does entail increased initial design and construction costs. The availability of financial space will govern early decisions on climate resilience and the prioritization of projects or specific assets. The identification and allocation of finance at an early stage therefore becomes a key component in the sustainable adaptation matrix. Relevant adaptation project level interventions can be broadly summarized in Figure ES2 FIGURE ES2. Project Adaptation Options Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 11 The Vietnam Regulatory Framework for Climate Change Adaptation Key road design standards are: i) TCVN 4054:2005 - Highway − Specifications for design ii) TCVN 5729:2012 - Expressway − Specifications for design iii) TCXD 104:2007 – Urban road – Specification for design iv) TCVN 10380:2014 - Rural Roads – Specifications for Design v) TCVN 9845:2013 – Calculation of flood flow characteristics vi) 22 TCN – 211 – 06 – Flexible Pavement Design Specification vii) 22TCN – 263 – 2000 – Road Survey Specification The design standards of Vietnam provide regulations for design work, with regulations that are either general, or sometimes have specific provisions for some cases. Design standards are therefore in the form of a semi-standard (with regulations on design principles), a semi-guideline (with specific provisions for cases). The general transport infrastructure design standards in Vietnam are not reviewed and updated to keep up with changes in policy, institutions and natural conditions. In summary, amendments to road-related standards need, in general, to address the following: 1. Selection road alignment and elevation during road work planning and preliminary design under climate change scenario considering inter-impact between road infrastructure and climate using appropriate hydraulic analysis tool; 2. Selection of pavement structure pavement thickness, stable at high temperature and salt- resistant materials during upgrading, improvement and re/new construction; 3. Underground water drainage options include pavement drainage options; 4. Survey the hydrological regime, calculate and analysis hydraulic conditions of drainage structures with consideration of the additional rainfall and sea level rising under the climate change scenario; 5. Ensure road geometric design for vertical elevation, super-elevation, sight distance,… in critical weather conditions follows climate change; 6. Design bioengineering options to block wind and sand; and planting and restoring mangrove forests to break waves; 7. Design of bioengineering options on slope to minimize the impact of temperature, increased rain and flood; 8. Strengthen flood and storm prevention to minimize the negative impacts of weather on national highways. 12 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Table 5.1. in Annex C is the main text provides a detailed review of road standards As a general comment it should be noted that standards involving climate data and related hydrological data should require the use of assessed future data rather than being totally dependent on historic data. This time frame of this future climate data should be compatible with the design life of the road asset being considered, depended on the road grade, for example around 15 years for a road pavement surface or 100 years or more for a large bridge. Good Practice for Climate Change Adaptation for Road Networks Following-on from the review of the review of the MP and SER documents, good practices for Climate Action Plans (CAP) (Bach Tan Sinh et al, 2015) in road network planning are summarized as follows: Coordination by local staff with The CAP process is coordinated by local government staff with technical external technical inputs. support from external experts as required. Departments involved in Key technical departments involved in implementing plans are also part of implementation. the planning team. Interaction/collaboration between Formal collaboration and consultation mechanisms exist to ensure that technical specialists, departments, different technical departments, specialists and government service units services. can review and comment on the draft plan. Consultation with vulnerable Social groups who are most vulnerable to climate impacts are specifically community groups. involved in consultations to assess vulnerability, risk and alternative adaptation measures. Responsibility for implementation Clear responsibility for implementation of CAP recommendations is assigned. assigned to specific agencies Iterative process (shared learning) The CAP process is iterative: some parts of the process have been repeated as information improves, lessons are widely shared and documented and feedback is provided to contributors. Local commitment. Local political commitment to the CAP process is high, as demonstrated by executive-level support. Driven by local interest. CAP procedures and priorities are driven by local context and respond to locally determined priorities. Experience driven by international The planning process responds to advice from international donors and donor. their technical experts and to priorities they have identified. Request for additional Local planners request additional information from external expert information. consultants, national government or other local departments to respond to emerging issues as the plan develops. Prioritization of adaptation The CAP establishes a limited number of priority measures for measures. implementation. Recommendations focus on key The priority recommendations respond clearly to vulnerabilities identified vulnerabilities in the plan. Implementation of Priority recommendations in the original CAP are implemented by local recommendations. government Recommendations supported by The CAP recommendations are reviewed and approved by the technical implementing agency. departments responsible for their implementation. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 13 Financing of implementation Financial resources for implementation are identified in the CAP measures Barriers/incentives to The CAP explicitly identifies any notable barriers or incentives that could implementation prevent or support implementation of recommendations Monitoring The CAP includes mechanisms for monitoring implementation and updating the plan Use of best available science Climate change adaptation planning uses the most recent available climate projections, including estimates of uncertainty Availability of climate information Climate information has been made available to the public as part of the planning and consultation process Assessment of climate impacts Climate projections have been used to assess likely impacts from climate change Application of hydrological Hydrological modelling has been applied to assess risks of flooding from models rivers or sea-level rise Vulnerability assessment A formal vulnerability assessment has been undertaken to demonstrate which groups and sites are most vulnerable to climate impacts Risk assessment A formal risk assessment has been undertaken, either quantitative or qualitative, explicitly assessing the probability and magnitude of damage from climate impacts Risk assessment used in Conclusions from risk assessment have been explicitly used in determining prioritization priorities for adaptation recommendations International experience indicates that the development of new adaptation measures as a whole can be summarized under the following headings: A. Organizational and Decision-Making Processes B. Technical Options C. Procedural and Operational Options D. Information Flow and ICT Support E. Decision and Risk Models F. Legislative Options Measures under these headings are assembled and prioritized into a way forward roadmap (Iraklis Stamos, Evangelos Mitsakis, Josep Maria Salanova Grau, Sep 2015). Based on the international good practice of Adaptation Measures roadmap and Vietnam climate change adaptation context, TA group propose 53 measures/sub-measures of climate change adaptation, the way forward road map and prioritization. Summary of Experience on Updating Standards Incentives to include climate adaptation in programmes or individual projects are shaped by the policy and the regulatory environment (Standards, Decrees, Guides, Specification). Governments or 14 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution individual Ministries can facilitate climate-resilient infrastructure by removing policy or regulatory constraints, or by adding regulatory requirements to consider climate risks and facilitate adaptation uptake. An interim list of general priority areas to be addressed is presented in Table ES2 TABLE ES2. Regulatory Amendment General Priority Areas Amendments/Additions Climate Resilience Policy Road network to be planned, design, constructed and maintained to defined climate resilient levels. Climate Resilience Planning and Costing Climate resilience to be a mandatory consideration in all national, provincial, local plans. Project Life Cycle Climate resilience should be a mandatory consideration on all stages of the project or road life cycle: Planning, Feasibility, Design, Construction and Maintenance. Climate Change Data For relevant standards, forecasted future climate and hydrological data to be used rather than historical data. Time span of data to be in line with design life of individual assets. Climate Resilience Adaptation Measures Individual road asset design standards and associated cost norms to be amended to take account of climate change issues, for example: • Pavement (supported drainage pavement structure /anti- erosion/ wheel rutting resistance/…) • Drainage system (efficiently comprehensive system, appropriate flow discharge, natural condition based position/span) • Alignment geometry (natural based horizontal alignment; appropriate levels follows drainage system and foods level) • Bridge deck spans and levels • Earthwork slopes/benches/drainages • Bioengineering • Materials (strength/resistance to soaking) • Safety (landslide/flood warnings) • Culverts sizes and levels • etc Maintenance Planning and Climate vulnerability and consequent resilience adaptation to Implementation ( included in all maintenance planning models together with any require adjustment to maintenance method and norms. Climate Resilience Monitoring and Inclusion of climate resilience monitoring and evaluation for all Evaluation major projects (National and Provincial?); includes effectiveness of adaptation measures and actual climate records. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 15 Ways Forward DFID-funded 2019 Climate Change Management Guidelines identified a series of steps required for updating standards and design guides to take account of climate adaptations: 1. Review all existing standards, guides, manuals and similar publications/documents to determine whether climate threats and associated adaptation are adequately covered. 2. Determine which documents are being updated (or are soon to be updated) and initiate actions to incorporate adaptation in their Terms of Reference. 3. For those with no immediate plans to update, decide whether to bring forward the update or whether to produce some form of augmentation. 4. Form a multidisciplinary/multisector working group (or groups) to scope out and deliver the necessary adaptation augmentation requirements based on the prioritization set out above. An essential key 1st step is recommended as an Adaptation Workshop with the following key objectives: 1. Policy-planning issues 2. Regulatory framework issues 3. Engineering adaptation 4. Non-engineering adaptation 5. Challenges to embedment 6. Way forward details 16 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution 1. Introduction 1.1 Background Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines that climate change adaptation must be linked to sustainable development. It sets a number of priority actions that include producing socio- economic development plans based on climate change scenarios. It focuses on key sectors and regions; improving regulations and technical standards for infrastructure; construction of climate change resilient urban infrastructure; and strengthening drainage infrastructure. A clear link is recognized between the mitigation and adaptation elements of the NDC. The identified adaptation strategic tasks are: (i) enhancing adaptation efficiency through strengthening state management and resources; (ii) increasing the resilience and adaptive capacity of communities, economic sectors and ecological systems; (iii) reducing disaster risks and minimizing damages, getting ready to cope with increased natural disasters and climate extremes due to climate change. These strategic tasks are consolidated in the National Adaptation Plan (NAP), and the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). As regards the road sector the updated NDC recognizes that both national and local road networks are at risk of being heavily impacted by climate change. 1.2 TA Objectives The TA as whole comprises both Mitigation and Adaptation elements and at a strategic level will leverage and complement the World Bank’s sectoral engagements, which include a move towards Low Carbon and Resilient Transport. The Adaptation TA has two complementary objectives: 1. Advice on the embedment of climate resilience adaptation into transport planning and implementation at National and Local levels. 2. Reviewing and recommending improvement to the regulatory framework relevant to the design, construction and maintenance of climate resilient roads and bridges in Vietnam. These objectives are derived from key strategic tasks identified in the 2020 NDC for climate change, which include: “Improving the legal framework to promote adaptation actions; implementing the NAP, applying the monitoring and evaluation system for climate change adaptation activities at the national and provincial levels; integrating climate change adaptation into policies, strategies, plans, programmes and projects.” Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 17 1.3 Work Undertaken In line with the TA objectives the following work has been undertaken: 1. Inception Report: An inception report with work plan was completed in October 2020 and a final version re-submitted in December 2020. 2. Review and comment on two MoT documents: Support PMU3 local consultant to review and improve the revised “Vietnam Road Network Master Planning” and “Strategic Environmental Assessment Report” as part of the advice on the embedment of climate resilience adaptation into transport planning. Comments and contributions were submitted on 15th March 2021. 3. Document Review: Review of road and bridges design standards and specifications relevant to climate impact. Review of relevant domestic, regional and international guidance and best practices and experience with integration of Climate Change Resilience (CCR) in transport planning. Output from this review is included as part of this report. 4. Mainstreaming Opportunities: Summarize key update requirements for the regulatory framework. Identification of opportunities to revise documentation, and mainstream climate considerations into transport planning and onward into the project life cycle. Output is included as part of this report. 5. Implementation Options: Discussion of feasibility of revisions in standards, practices, and specifications with key decision makers in DRVN/MoT. Recognize potential obstacles, knowledge gaps and constraints to climate resilience embedment in planning identify pathways forward to overcome these. 6. Workshop and Final Reporting. This document reports on items 2-5 above, and additionally includes a number of annexes containing support detail. 18 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution 1.4 Report Structure The contents of this document following this Introduction are summarised in Table 1.1 TABLE 1.1 Report Structure Section Title Description Chapter 2 MoT Document Review Summary of comments made by the WB Team on two documents. Chapter 3 Climate Change in Vietnam A summary of climate change in Vietnam and its regional variation together with the likely impacts on road infrastructure. Chapter 4 A Framework for Climate A framework is presented of the key elements that facilitate the Change Adaptation mainstreaming climate resilience adaptation. Key adaptation options are listed. Chapter 5 The Vietnam Regulatory A concise review of the current Vietnam regulatory system as it Framework for Climate relates to road and bridge planning, design, construction and Change Adaptation maintenance. Chapter 6 Good Practice in Climate A summary of good practice in mainstreaming climate change Change Adaptation for adaptation based on international experience. Road Networks Chapter 7 Adaptation Measures in A review of the measure discussed in Chapter 6 as they could be the Vietnam Context applied in the Vietnam climate change environments. Chapter 8 Summary of Experience on A compilation of lessons to be learnt from updating of regulatory Updating Standards frameworks for climate change. Chapter 9 Ways Forward A summary of the next key steps to be taken to in moving forward the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation options and the updating of the related standards and guidance in planning, design, construction and maintenance of Vietnam road networks. Annex A A listing of Relevant The list of relevant national, regional and international references Domestic, Regional and includes climate change adaptation guidelines, standards and International Guidance on methods. Climate Change Resilience Annex B Summaries of Key List of references together with a summary of knowledge and Domestic, Regional and experience on integrating climate change adaptation into transport International Guidance planning.. and Experience with Integration of CCR in Transport Planning Annex C Design, construction and Details of the review and recommendations to strengthen key maintenance standards standards relating to road and bridge design, construction and review for climate maintenance for climate adaptation adaptation Annex D Technical Issues from Key Short bibliographic summaries of key references taken from the Informant Interview Annex A list that are applicable to the TA aims. Annex E Working Papers by Team Detailed working papers by WB TA Team members that formed the Members basis for the main report text. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 19 2. MoT Document Review Reviews and comments were requested from the TA Adaptation Team on the following documents: • Document A: Strategic Environmental Assessment Report for the Vietnam Road Network Master Planning. • Document B: Vietnam Road Network Master Planning in 2021-2030 period, Vision 2050. The TA Team comments and recommendations are summarized in Table 2.1 Besides the comments below, the TA Team provided a direct assessment on the Strategic Environmental Assessment Report in order for the MoT to finalize the report. It was reported by DRVN in a project progress meeting on the 8th July 2021 that all of recommendations and contributions from the TA Team have been incorporated in the Strategic Environmental Assessment Report submitted to Vietnam Government. High appreciation was confirmed from the Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment for the Report. The Vietnam Road Network Master Planning in 2021-2030 period, vision 2050 was approved by Prime Minister dated 1st Sep 2021. Comments and recommendations from TA Team for contributing to the first versions of the MoT documents are summarized in Table 2.1. TABLE 2.1. Summary of Team Comments on the draft version of the reviewed documents Adaptation Issue in WB Documents reviewed & Recommendations ToR Document No. B Document No. A Recommended Activities 1. Climate Change No strong links General link made on climate Revise MP for Adaptation (CCA) linked to made. risk to transport development strengthening sustainable sustainable development. and inclusion in planning development links to CCA.. within environment context. 2. Key sectors and regions Some limited CC summarised by region. Revise MP & SER with for CCA discussion on key further discussion of CRA regions. of key regions 3. CCA for urban No specific Urban network mentioned Revise MP & SER with infrastructure. mention of urban but not in context of CCA. further discussion on situation. the CCA and urban infrastructure. 4. Appreciation that design Not mentioned. Not mentioned. Revise MP & SER with standards not flexible addition of analysis on enough for CCA. design standards/guideline for CR. 20 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Adaptation Issue in WB Documents reviewed & Recommendations ToR Document No. B Document No. A Recommended Activities 5. Review of existing road Listing of relevant Summary of legal basis for None. and bridges standards and standards etc planning. Listing of legal basis specifications. documents. 6. Recommend No mention. Updating of hydrological None. improvement of the designs recommended as technical standards. well legal/policy framework from environment aspect. No CCA. 7, Way forward to apply No mention. CC within environmental Revise MP & SER to add recommendations. model into MP. mapping to CR. 8, An understanding of the General overview CCA summarised in general. Revise MP with more relationships between CC on climate Environmental impact detailed information. cause and effect within an impacts. context. holistic matrix. 9. Climate resilience to be No mention. Not mentioned. Revise MP to show planned and implemented the planning & plan within a CRM framework. implementation follows CRM framework Revise SER with the CRM assessment. 10. Strengthening drainage No specific Noted in reference to Revise MP include infrastructure as a priority. mention. flooding as an environmental drainage infrastructure issue. strengthening. 11. Develop good practice Not mentioned. Guidance and guidelines None guidance on appropriate on SER in planning only; no technical design and specific CR inclusion. construction standards. 12. Review of relevant International, Not covered None regional and international regional guidance and best practices experience not for CCA. mentioned. 13. Identification Not mentioned. Hydraulic issues to be Revise MP to identify of opportunities to covered in MP in context of opportunities of mainstream CCA in Vietnam environmental impact. mainstream CCA in road, bridge and drainage Vietnam road, bridge and systems design and drainage systems design construction. and construction. 14. The requirements Not mentioned. Not Mentioned. Revise MP & SER briefing for Climate Vulnerability the requirements for CVA Analysis (CVA) at different at different project levels project levels and CCA at and CCA at different road different road classification classification levels. levels. 15. Risk prioritization; the Not mentioned. Not mentioned. Revise MP & SER briefing provision of guidance for the Risk prioritization and requirements on & requirements on the selection and cost the selection and cost assessment of CCA. assessment of CRA. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 21 3. Climate Change in Vietnam 3.1 Climate Change and Consequences There is now general agreement on the broad issue that climate change is occurring and will continue to occur over the coming decades and that it will involve issues such as a rise in sea level, changes in seasonal rainfall; increased temperature and increased major climatic events. Reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) clearly show that land surface air temperatures and sea surface temperatures have both increased in the course of the last century with maximum and minimum temperatures increasing over land since the mid–20th century (IPCC ,2014, Ref 1047). Global climate change projections indicate a combination of gradual changes to average climatic conditions and increasing frequency, severity and location of extreme weather or “shock” events. Gradual changes related to climatic variables are those which are experienced over a period of time from months to years, decades or even centuries. Extreme events are typically those which occur suddenly, sometimes with limited warning, typically over a period of hours, days or weeks (World Bank 2017 Ref 1017). These events include heavy and/or prolonged precipitation events, heatwaves, single very hot or cold days, and prolonged periods of drought. Figure 3.1 summarizes the framework of causes and effects that constitutes a framework within which climate change impacts and resilience adaptations may be considered. FIGURE 3.1 The Climate Change Impact Framework 3.2 Climate Change Impacts on the Vietnam Road Network The current climatic environment, with its variability and frequency of extreme weather events, when associated with its physical environment, makes Vietnam potentially highly susceptible to 22 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution climate impacts. The risks arising from these impacts on the road network are considerably increased when the likelihood of increasing climate threats from future climate change is taken into account. Tables 3.1 to 3.4 summarize climate change impacts on road network assets and how they fit within the road-project cycle. TABLE 3.1. Hazards Related to the Increased Precipitation Component Potential technical issues due to increased precipitation Road Asset Road Pavement Flooding, Flash flood results in surface degradation, rutting and erosion. Softening/weakening of pavement materials on saturation. Soil shoulder erosion. Loss of pavement layer strength results to structural damages. Road Cuts and Embankment Cut-slope instability (landslides, slope failure). Saturation and weakening of embankment soils result to landslides. Erosion of soil surfaces and drains. Embankment surface erosion. Excessive vegetation growth. Subgrade Expansion of moisture-sensitive materials. Subgrade settlement. Subgrade softening. Deformation of rigid structures. Increased sinkholes in karst areas. Bridge and Drainage Drainage system capacity is exceeded resulting in over-topping, erosion and/ or washing out. Siltation and blocking of drains. Scour of bridge foundations, abutment erosion leading to bridge collapse. Overtopping of bridges results to damage or destruction. Damage to bridge structures by debris in floodwaters. Erosion of embankments and abutments of culverts and bridges. Road Cycle Road Project Preparation and Uncertainty of the input data results to “under-design”. Road Design Increasing project cost estimation if not taken in to account at planning stage. Road Works Construction Excessive moisture in materials, cannot haul/place materials– construction delays. Risk of delays due to critical and long-term rain. Water damage to partially completed works. Increase construction cost due to need for more coffer dams or flood-control measures during drainage and bridge construction. Road Network Management & Increased maintenance costs for pavement, shoulder, drainage. Maintenance Increase maintenance works of pavement cleaning and drainage structure clearing. Critically increase emergency maintenance works in storm reason. Close major roads due to flooding and increase economic impact and road management cost. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 23 TABLE 3.2. Hazards Related to Increased Major Storms Components Potential problems and damages due to storm Road Assets Road Pavement Flooding, Flash flood (on pavement) surface damage and erosion Road Cuts and Embankment Slope instability upslope and/or downslope of carriageway Road section washing out Subgrade Subgrade settlement and washing out Bridges and Drainage Siltation and blocking of drains Erosion of embankments and abutments of culverts and bridges Bridge or bridge superstructure/substructures washing out Clearance for water transport reduced – boat passage blocked Road Cycle Road Project Preparation and Poor input data for relating to critical storms/disaster results in “under-design” Road Design Increase project cost estimation against planning estimations Road Works Construction Increase construction cost for repairing damage due to the critical storms/ disaster during construction period Delays due to: Interrupted construction progress, time for variation order and/or damage repair compensation and/or insurance procedure. Road Network Management & Critical increase of emergency maintenance works in storm reason Maintenance Road closed and traffic interrupted, economic and social impacts TABLE 3.3. Hazards Related to Increased Temperature Components Potential problems and damages due to increased temperature Road Assets Road Pavement Softening of bitumen in asphalt and accelerating permanent deformation. More rapid ageing of bituminous binders to shorten pavement life Expansion and buckling of concrete roads. Road Cuts and Embankment More rapid drying out and cracking Loss of vegetation (or changes of species) on side slopes due to insufficient water Increased erosion due to loss of vegetation Bridges and Drainage Greater expansion/contraction of bridge elements. Larger temperature gradients in thick concrete elements/structures. Road Cycle Road Project Preparation and Design method does not cover fully operating condition result to issue of Road Design “under-design.” Increase project cost estimation due to required modifications Road Works Construction Poor work quality due to construction in critical weather, especially for HMA pavement due to longer cooling time, concrete pavement and structures due to quicker hydrated reaction, quicker drying progress of concrete and more difficult curing regime. Delays due to shortened possible construction time, and lower working productivity Road Network Management & Require more maintenance works and costs for impacted structural items: Maintenance bitumen pavement and concrete structures; vegetation & bio-engineering. 24 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution TABLE 3.4. Hazards Related to Sea-Level Rise (SLR) Components Potential problems and damages due to increased SLR Road Asset Road Pavement Ravelling of bitumen surface by salts and water. Increased subgrade moisture contents and reduced support. Road Embankment Embankment slope erosion or sliding.; Fluctuating underwater levels and increased subgrade moisture contents. Reduced and unstable subgrade soil strength. Bridges and Drainage Reduce discharge capacity of the drainage structures of culverts and drains, and results to flood at the inlet areas. Reduce clearance results to risks of damages due to collision between waterway transport facilities and bridge structures. Erosion and/or scour of structure foundations. Salt weathering brings risks of concrete degradation and carbonation, chloride induces corrosion to reinforcement and steel structures which all shorten structure life. Road Cycle Road Project Preparation and Increase length of bridge and size of culverts and drains. Road Design Hydraulic calculation and analysis is modified or “under-design” issue. Increase project cost. Road Works Construction Required modified construction method statement and modified materials. Delays at construction due to floods. Construction quality is potentially impacted. Road Network Management & Increased maintenance works and costs due to deterioration of concrete and Maintenance reinforcing concrete structures. 3.3 Regional Variations in Adaption Requirements Chinowsky et al (2015 Ref 1199) extend earlier work by evaluating the implications of climate change for road infrastructure within Vietnam across a fuller range of climate change projections. They find Across 56 climate scenarios, the mean additional cost of maintaining the Vietnam road network through 2050 could amount to US$10.5 billion varying across different regions. The potential scale of these impacts reinforces climate change adaptation as an important component of planning and policy in the current and near future. They define stressors as SLR, precipitation, temperature and flooding, while the infrastructure impacted elements are paved, gravel and earth roads. They consider some key cost issues: • Total cost: The overall estimated costs of climate change impacts on road infrastructure (at 2010 prices and without discounting). • Opportunity cost: The amount of paved road that could have been built with the funding that is diverted to climate change costs. • Adaptive advantage: The benefit of adapting to climate change Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 25 Central highlands: All damage costs are from climate and flooding stressors. According to Chinowsky et al, Adaptation policy saves nearly US$100 million in the “maximum hot” scenario, which is the cost difference from expanding existing infrastructure by nearly 50 percent as opposed to a 10 percent opportunity cost for adaptation. Mekong River delta: This region incurs the largest total and opportunity costs of all regions under the combined climate change scenarios. This can largely be attributed to SLR, given that most of this southernmost region in Vietnam is at an elevation of less than three meters. In the region’s thirteen provinces, coastal inundation impacts between 14 and 99,5 percent of provincial road infrastructure. TDSI & IMHEN, (2020) provided an assessment of climate change impacts on transport infrastructure system using an impact factor matrix and found that the road infrastructure in this area is highly vulnerable in most factors: such as temperature, rainfall, extreme natural disasters, subsidence, flooding The exceptions were drought and saline intrusion at low impact. The critical climate change was SLR combined with tidal flow was the most serious in this region due to low-lying land and soft soil. Northern central and central coast area: Climate change impacts analysis show that impacts in this region are quite modest relative to other regions in Vietnam. However, According to Chinowsky et al, 2015 total costs reach as much as US$115.9 million under the maximum hot scenario, with an opportunity cost of 57 percent. Adaptation policy reduces this opportunity cost to 16 percent, which is a savings of US$83.7 million. Even though the median hot scenario has a lower projected impact (25 and 34 percent with and without adaptation, respectively), there is still a significant benefit to adaptation of road infrastructure. The largest damages occur in Da Nang and Phu Yen provinces. Short and steep rivers due to terrain conditions in the northern central make impact factors of climate change are more critical. Landslide (road slope and along coastal bank), flood and extreme natural disaster also are also very high impact factors while increasing temperature, rainfall and SLR are moderate impact factors. Adaptation requirements for this region are concentrated in drainage system to improve flow discharge capacity. Northern midlands and mountain areas: With adaptation policy this region incurs the lowest total and opportunity costs from climate change, because of the region’s location away from the coast. The climate impacts from temperature, precipitation and flooding could cost as much as US$100 million, but with adaptation this is reduced to US$11 million. Adaptation policy is therefore highly effective in this region. Red River delta: SLR impacts six percent of this region’s roads, with losses as high as 21 percent in some provinces. Adaptation policy reduces total climate damage costs by nearly US$150 million under the maximum hot scenario. The opportunity cost savings from adaptation are similar across the two GCM scenarios in this region, but vary significantly without adaptation policies. This highlights the effectiveness of adaptation in reducing both the magnitude and variation of potential climate change damages. Avoiding a “worst case” scenario through adaptation policies 26 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution that limit road infrastructure damages will be crucial in this region’s densely populated urban areas, especially within the capital city, Hanoi. South East: This small region contains key urban centers, including Ho Chi Minh City. Road impact losses from SLR vary across provinces from 0 percent–21 percent, with Ho Chi Minh at the upper end of this distribution. With approximately 6800 kilometers of roads, this region incurs a total cost of US$165 million in the maximum hot scenario, and a potential road loss of 1360 kilometers. Adaptation generates savings of US$122 million, which again underscores the need for pro-active infrastructure adaptation policy. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 27 4. A Framework for Climate Change Adaptation 4.1 Key Elements The general principles of climate impact evaluation and mitigation through engineering and non- engineering options are now understood in general terms and have been developed in a number of international documents. Work already undertaken and applied internationally has identified and defined key adaptation actions and procedures (See Annex B, Table B3). Research has also been undertaken regionally and in Vietnam which has indicated some ways forward within the Vietnam environment (See Annex B Tables B1 and B2). What significantly remains to be achieved is the embedment of the practical best-practice solutions to overcoming climate impact challenges within the regulatory, design, construction and maintenance environments associated with the Vietnam Road Network. Figure 4.1 indicates the key elements of a framework within which this embedment of sustainable climate resilience has to take place. FIGURE 4.1 Strategic Framework for Sustainable Climate Resilience National Policy, in conjunction with Ministerial policies and directives, is the basic driver for the adoption of climate resilience and adaptation as a required process in road projects. A clear policy that lays out climate resilience targets is the basis on which the adoption of appropriate engineering and non- engineering measures are considered. 28 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Technical Guidance on the appropriate selection, design and construction of adaptation measures is an essential tool. Whilst many of the adaptation measures are well understood by Vietnamese road practitioners, the criteria for selection and prioritization together with use of data in design requires specific guidance. Some adaptation options, such as aspects of bioengineering and innovative slope support measures may not be so well understood and require detailed guidance. Guidelines should also serve to interpret standards for application in an appropriate and logical manner. Regulatory Framework and Standards provide the necessary environment within which climate resilience can be effectively applied. Road design engineers and contractors cannot be expected to work outside established legal regulations and standards unless given specific license to do so. The adoption of many climate resilience options requires a significant measure of flexibility and innovation that is not covered by the current regulatory framework – as discussed in the following chapters. Financial Space. Whilst the provision of effective well-designed climate resilience is certainly beneficial in terms of whole-life engineering and economic terms, it does entail increased initial design and construction costs. The availability of financial space will govern early decisions on climate resilience and the prioritization of projects or specific assets. The identification and allocation of finance at an early project stage therefore becomes a key component in the sustainable adaptation matrix. 4.2 Adaptation Options Recent Climate Engineering Adaptation Guidelines (ReCAP, 2019, Refs 1112 & 1177) provide a general adaptation strategy which includes: • Decrease the vulnerability of transport infrastructure to changing climate conditions; • Increase the resilience of infrastructure; • Support planning for placement of new infrastructure in areas which are projected to have a lower risk of potentially harmful environmental changes; • Support the identification of new and innovative construction materials and construction methods, flexible design standards, and different approaches to design to ensure infrastructure can withstand the projected changes in climate; • Prepare Roads Authorities for rapid response/reaction to climate-related events. In the Vietnam-specific context, the relevant project-level adaptation interventions can be broadly summarized in Figure 4.2 and described in the following paragraphs. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 29 FIGURE 4.2. Project-Level Adaptation Options 1. Pavement strengthening: For low traffic volume road, unpaved pavement made of earth and gravel are prone to rapid deterioration due to soil moisture saturation from excess water. Hence, the pavement strengthening for low traffic volume option aims to create a more climate-resilient surface by investing in bitumen sealing or concrete paving, which increases the strength and protection of subsurface road conditions. The national target program of new rural development has a key objective of strengthening pavements and reducing the proportion of unpaved pavement for climate resilience. Periodic maintenance of the pavement to preserve its strengthening characteristics is an essential climate resilience action. Options for high traffic roads also should be improved for rutting resistance as well as anti-aging and fatigue cracking resistance by modified materials. Specific guidance of pavement structure design for high traffic volume road should be supplemented in current flexible pavement design standard. Temperature variation due to climate change should be considered for concrete pavement design and construction. Thermal stress and concrete slab length, curing duration and regime should be analyzed using the practical temperature data. Options of pavement materials for natural resource saving and reducing emission, such as using recycle materials, using cold or warm asphalt mix, also could be considered. 2. Improved pavement drainage: This is aimed at avoiding disruptive flooding and pooling of water and sediment on roads (or bridges). The investment also targets improving the road surface cross fall, putting in more side drains, turn-out drains, and scour checks. Maintenance should clear the drainage and prevent scour. Drainage pavement layer or drainage pavement structure using porous asphalt or porous concrete and drain base could be provided in the standards as optional solution, specifically in urban areas. 3. Earthwork protection: To prevent failure earthwork slopes, this investment option works by adopting different climate-resilient slope strengthening measures, including improved masonry and bioengineering standards (ADB 2017, Ref 1113) to enhance embankments and cut road slopes. Drainage systems for earthwork protection structures need to be strengthen using combination 30 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution of graded filter layer, cut-off drain, chute and cascade drain and transverse culvert. Periodic and routine maintenance of the slopes and drainage should remove loose materials. 4. Riverbank slope protection: Aimed specifically at enhancing climate-resilience of road slope structures adjacent to rivers. This option includes installing gabions, block facing, bio-engineering to strengthen slopes (ICEM 2017 Ref 1113), and improving face drainage against overtopping due to river flooding. Investment in slope strengthening can be undertaken with periodic maintenance. This intervention protects the roads against landslide disruptions. Drainage system for stabilized road slope also needs to be strengthen by the requirements in design standards and technical guidance similar as in earthwork projection. Periodic maintenance for the drainage is very important to ensure functions of the drains and stability of the slope. Many roads along river – stream are damaged by slip erosion or by toe erosion. Solutions of river – stream bank protection should be considered that involve a combination of engineering and bio-engineering solutions. 5. Drainage Upgrade: Drainage upgrade and improvement includes upgraded cross drainage (mainly culverts and bridges) and improved side drains system. This investment option builds more climate- resilient culverts/bridges and/or increases the size and protection standards of existing culverts and bridges (stream and relief ), reflecting the increases in flood intensities due to climate change. Periodic maintenance of the culverts and bridges is performed to remove debris and sediments to prevent scouring. Flood vulnerability of culverts in Vietnam is a major issue, with several instances of the culvert and small bridge failures recorded during major flood events (CSCNDPC 2017). 5. Coastal Bank protection: Erosion and bank slip erosion is an important consideration for climate change in South – Centre and in the South regions. This investment provides various options for sea bank protection which combines between structural options of concrete block, concrete frame and rock, and bio-engineering of coastal mangrove forests. Coastal road system plan of Vietnam should be integrated with the forest protection and development. 6. To support transport infrastructure planning with a lower risk of potentially harmful environmental changes and reduction of the critical impact of climate change due to new infrastructure, analysis may increasingly need to be carried out using simulation tools and including climate change data. Solutions for infrastructure design can be made based on analyzed results. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 31 5 The Vietnam Regulatory Framework for Climate Change Adaptation Vietnam regulatory framework for climate change adaptation similarly with other professional issues includes relevant laws, decrees, circulars, and standards. In this section, only standards relating to roadworks are reviewed and assessed for sufficiency and appropriateness at climate change adaptation aspect for improvement proposal. The most updated standard which could provide solid base for designing infrastructures approaches climate adaptation is 2021 draft version of the National Technical Regulation on Natural Physical & Climatic Data for Construction (QCVN 02:2021/BXD). It provides updated data (to around 2016-2017 of Vietnam climate includes critical climate and natural phenomenon. The updated climate data is provided by IMHEN (Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change) which are consolidated from climate stations all over Vietnam. However, key road and bridge design standards mostly still have not updated for effective treatment solutions of climate change adaptation. 5.1 Road Design, Construction and Maintenance Key road design standards that should be focused on are: i) TCVN 4054:2005 - Highway − Specifications for design ii) TCVN 5729:2012 - Expressway − Specifications for design iii) TCXDVN 104:2007 – Urban road – Specification for design iv) TCVN 10380:2014 - Rural Roads – Specifications for Design v) TCVN 9845:2013 – Calculation of flood flow characteristics vi) 22 TCN – 211 – 06 – Flexible Pavement Design Specification vii) 22TCN – 263 – 2000 – Road Survey Specification Road design standards in Vietnam are not updated to keep pace with changes in policy , conditions in general or climate changes. Key road design standards TCVN 4054:2005; 22 TCN – 211 – 06; and TCXD 104:2007 have been in use for about 15 years and climate changes are still not considered as a critical issue. Others have been in used nearly 10 years and do not officially make mention of climate adaptation. In these road design standards, there is no reference to flood protection standards. The urban road design standard (TCXD 104:2007) does not refer to the regulation on flood resistance for urban areas according to QCXDVN 01: 2008/BXD. The updated standard of National Technical Regulation – Technical Infrastructure Works – Transportation Infrastructure (QCVN 07-04:2016) and 32 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution the National Technical Regulation – Technical Infrastructure Works – Drainage (QCVN 07-02:2016) has not mentioned in detailed for climate change adaptation. While TCVN 4054:2005, article 10.6, Table 30 includes a note of “at the road sections crossing cities or residential areas, the designed road elevation is specified following fixed-elevation in urban planning and the flood frequency to calculate the drainage works and roadbeds according to urban design standards”, there are no specific provisions in TCXDVN 104:2007 or in QCVN – 07 – 02,04 for the designed flood frequency but re-referred TCVN 4054:2005. Urban planning conforms flood protection standards. And it is difficult to find a connection between these road design standards and flood prevention standards. Apart from regulations for standard design implementation, Vietnamese design consultants are not provided with legal support for data collection or design guidelines. Standard TCVN 9845:2013 (Article 5.2.1) prescribes the calculation of the peak flood discharge corresponding to the design frequency with the maximum daily rainfall parameter corresponding to the design frequency of the relevant hydro-meteorological station. Neither this standard or any other road design standard stipulates or gives legal procedures for hydrometeorological stations to provide rainfall data series for hydraulic analysis. There is also not any official guideline to process the raw rainfall data from stations, which could be different between each other depends on equipment and technology of the station, to estimate the maximum rainfall corresponding to the design frequency. The design standards are semi-standard (with regulations on design principles), or semi-guideline (with specific provisions for cases). For example, there is a general requirement of Article 7.8.7 TCVN 4054: 2005 is: “The slope of the embankment must be reinforced by measures suitable to local hydrological and climatic conditions to prevent erosion caused by the impact of precipitation, currents, waves and flooding water level”, but there also is another article 7.8.4 which is very specific case of “When the embankment slope is relatively high (8m to 10m high), a terrace should be created at width from 1.0m to 3.0m. The terrace should has sufficient cross-fall to cut-off paving drain. The road slope should be stabilized by using masonry or pre-casted concrete bricks”. Such the specific article does not cover all actual conditions as well as technical solutions while the general article needs detailed design guideline or manual to support designers for design solution selection and calculation and analysis process. ; on the steps has a horizontal slope structure and a trench. In addition, high slope roofs should be reinforced with masonry or precast cement concrete slabs. To support the design standards, it would be necessary for a design guide to indicate various technical solutions of embankment stabilization and slope protection, their application, calculation and analysis procedure. However, some any but not enough individual solutions are standardized, such as TCVN 9152 : 2012 - Hydraulic structures - Designing Process for Retaining Walls; TCVN 11823-11:2017 Highway bridge design specification – Part 11: Abutments, piers and walls; TCCS 13: 2016 – Gabions Gravity Retaining Wall – Specification for Design, Construction and Acceptance TCVN 10335:2014 - Gabions and Revetment Mattresses and double - Twisted hexagonal mesh Products used for Waterway Constructions – Specifications. However, these standards do not cover all types of embankment stabilization and slope protection. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 33 The standards for surveying works (22TCN – 263 – 2000 or the updated standard of TCCS 31:2000) are both have not included specific provisions or guidance for data collection and analysis for climate change assessment or climate change impacts, climate change scenario recommended to forecast future data for using in the design instead of using history data to CCS design. Standards are legal documents which must be followed, while guidelines can be flexibly applied to specific provisions included in the standard. Specific provisions that lack universality for all practical cases included in the standards can lead to inappropriate design. A very simple example is the specific value for cross-fall of road cross section depending only on surface material only without considering any other factors. In summary, amendments to the Vietnam Regulatory Framework and road-related standards need to address the following: 1. Improve the regulatory framework by issuing of formal guidelines/circulars to support environmental-friendly infrastructure planning and support the application of new and innovative construction materials and construction methods, flexible design standards, and different approaches to design to ensure infrastructure can withstand the projected changes in climate. 2. Improve road design standards for climate change adaptation to stipulate the design input data incorporating climate change condition factors of increasing rainfall, critical storms and typhoon, flooding and flash flood, and SLR. 3. Update 22TCN 263:2000 regarding surveying works for topography, geology and hydrology for road design to collect data covering climate change condition, for example for hydrological surveys to assess the hydrological regime taking into consideration the additional rainfall under the climate change scenario. 4. Update TCVN 4054:2005, with supplemental articles on geometric design to ensure vertical alignment of embankment, cross-fall and super elevation for sufficient drainage and visibility in critical weather conditions; bioengineering options to reinforce embankment, to protect road slope, to block wind and sand; and planting and restoring mangrove forests to break waves. 5. Update standard of flexible pavement structure design, develop standard of rigid pavement design with stipulations on the selection of pavement structures using appropriate layer materials to withstand weather condition. Update also to provide appropriate calculation and analysis of selected pavement structures which takes into account climate change impact factors. 6. Update road design standards (of expressway, urban road, rural road) to strengthen flood and storm prevention to minimize the negative impacts of weather. 7. Provide road construction/maintenance standards of innovative road engineering materials and technologies for longer life of road and encouraging environment friendly construction solutions, such as recycling, waste materials utilization and/or low emission technologies. 8. Update road maintenance norm/standards to provide a basis for climate change adaptation road maintenance planning. Details of review and recommendations for strengthening road design standard to adapt climate change conditions are in Annex C, Table C 1. 34 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution 5.2 Bridge Design, Construction and Maintenance As regards Road Bridge Design Standards published in 2017, the following contents summarize the standard construction principles, specifically as to converting and upgrading the industry standard 22TCN 272-05 Bridge design standard into National Standard – Highway Design Standard. The updated contents are compiled from the original AASHTO LRFD Bridge Design Specification, SI Unit, 4th Edition, 2007 (hereinafter referred to as AASHTO 2007). Compiling only the content of the provisions, not compiling the comment as standard 22 TCN-272-05. Except for some articles with new technical content, more detailed is added as an explanation of the original version to facilitate understanding and easy application for Vietnamese engineers. 1. Keep the chapter numbers as of the original AASHTO 2007 2. Do not compile Part 7- Aluminium structure and Part 8- Wood structure as standard 22TCN 272-05 has done, because Vietnam does not actually use it. 3. Terms have been updated in the 6th edition of the AASHTO Standards (2012), the foundation of AASHTO’s 7th edition (2014) with more concise, understandable wording. 4. The details of wind load calculation are kept as specified in 22TCN 272-05 because this calculation is based on the wind conditions of each region, not according to the original calculation of wind pressure common to all regions of the AASHTO versions. 5. The navigability standard is kept the same as the concept of standard 22 TCN 272-05, but the concept of navigable water level is according to the new in-land waterway standard TCVN 5664 - 2009. 6. Ship collision load according to the original AASHTO collision probability concepts. This will require a guide to make take account size of in-land waterway ships in Vietnam 7. The earthquake calculation method remains the same as the original version of AASHTO 2007 and is not updated according to the 2012 versions because the seismic acceleration partition map follows Vietnam’s anti-seismic design standards. The bridge design standard inherits the American standards and is upgraded from the current standard 22 TCN 272-05. It can be seen in the standard description that the content related to the effects of climate change mentioned will focus on item (1) This calculation is based on the actual wind of each region; (2) The navigable water level according to the new riverway standard TCVN 5664 - 2009; (3) Factors affecting climate need to be considered such as temperature, rainfall, etc. As a general comment it should be noted that standards involving climate data and related hydrological data should require the use of assessed future data rather than being totally dependent on historic data. This time frame of this future climate data should be compatible with the design life of the road asset being considered, for example around 15 years for a road pavement or 100years or more for a large bridge. The research team approached on the basis of a summary of the changes of AASHTO 2007 compared to the version of AASHTO 1998 (the base version for the compilation of the 22TCN 272-05 standard) and the new updates of the AASHTO 2012 versions with some updates in January 2015. Reviews, comments and suggestions are all adjusted and detailed in Annex C, Table C 2. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 35 6 Good Practice for Climate Change Adaptation for Road Networks 6.1 General Following-on from the review of the MP and SER documents, good practices for local planning are summarized in Table 6.1 (Source: Local planning for climate adaptation: Vietnam’s experience, Asian Cities Climate Resilience, Working Paper Series 24: 2015). These suggestions could be integrated in road network planning and/or road works planning to provide sufficient climate adaptation measure. TABLE 6.1. Good Practice for Climate Action Plans (CAP)in Road Network Planning Good Practice Description Coordination by local staff with The CAP process is coordinated by local government staff with technical external technical inputs. support from external experts as required. Departments involved in Key technical departments involved in implementing plans are also part of implementation. the planning team. Interaction/collaboration between Formal collaboration and consultation mechanisms exist to ensure that technical specialists, departments, different technical departments, specialists and government service units services. can review and comment on the draft plan. Social groups who are most vulnerable to climate impacts are specifically Consultation with vulnerable involved in consultations to assess vulnerability, risk and alternative community groups. adaptation measures. Responsibility for implementation Clear responsibility for implementation of CAP recommendations is assigned assigned. to specific agencies The CAP process is iterative: some parts of the process have been repeated Iterative process (shared learning) as information improves, lessons are widely shared and documented and feedback is provided to contributors. Local political commitment to the CAP process is high, as demonstrated by Local commitment. executive-level support. CAP procedures and priorities are driven by local context and respond to Driven by local interest. locally determined priorities. Experience driven by international The planning process responds to advice from international donors and their donor. technical experts and to priorities they have identified. Local planners request additional information from external expert Request for additional information. consultants, national government or other local departments to respond to emerging issues as the plan develops. Prioritization of adaptation The CAP establishes a limited number of priority measures for measures. implementation. Recommendations focus on key The priority recommendations respond clearly to vulnerabilities identified in vulnerabilities the plan. 36 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Good Practice Description Implementation of Priority recommendations in the original CAP are implemented by local recommendations. government. Recommendations supported by The CAP recommendations are reviewed and approved by the technical implementing agency. departments responsible for their implementation. Financing of implementation Financial resources for implementation are identified in the CAP. measures. Barriers/incentives to The CAP explicitly identifies any notable barriers or incentives that could implementation. prevent or support implementation of recommendations The CAP includes mechanisms for monitoring implementation and updating Monitoring the plan. Climate change adaptation planning uses the most recent available climate Use of best available science. projections, including estimates of uncertainty. Climate information has been made available to the public as part of the Availability of climate information. planning and consultation process. Climate projections have been used to assess likely impacts from climate Assessment of climate impacts. change. Hydrological modelling has been applied to assess risks of flooding from Application of hydrological models. rivers or sea-level rise. A formal vulnerability assessment has been undertaken to demonstrate Vulnerability assessment which groups and sites are most vulnerable to climate impacts A formal risk assessment has been undertaken, either quantitative or Risk assessment. qualitative, explicitly assessing the probability and magnitude of damage from climate impacts. Risk assessment used in Conclusions from risk assessment have been explicitly used in determining prioritization priorities for adaptation recommendations. 6.2 Adaptation Measures: International Guidance, Best Practices, Experience TA group reviews a number of additional international documents with a view to identifying a key best practice approach (Iraklis Stamos, Evangelos Mitsakis, Josep Maria Salanova Grau. Roadmaps for Adaptation Measures of Transportation to Climate Change. Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2532(1):1-12, Sep 2015) with 06 solution group. Brief summary of the measures provided in the reference are extracted as follows from section 6.2.1 to 6.2.6 and Figure 6.1. Based on the practice approach, a number key measures are proposed in Vietnam context which are discussed in Chapter 8. 6.2.1. Organizational and Decision-Making Processes Measure A1. Setting and implementation of international standards for weather and emergency information. Measure A2. Consultation with and coordination of highway authorities, subcontractors, suppliers, and key stakeholders to adjust adaptation strategies. Measure A3. Establishment of networks of urban, regional, and national stakeholders, transport companies, authorities, and users. Measure A4. Dissemination of educational and information material on emergency cases, planning, and maintenance to related authorities. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 37 Measure A5. Conduct public campaigns in order to raise public awareness regarding local hazard situations. 6.2.2. Technical Options Measure B1. Construction of dikes and creation of flood barriers for protection against water. Measure B2. Innovative pavement materials resistant to corrosion. Measure B3. Improved drainage system Measure B4. Elevation of coastal road networks. Measure B5. Design of and investment in new assets with ‘’quick restoration’’ capability. Measure B6. Provision of shelters for nonmotorized transport. Measure B7. Preparation for sufficient road clearing equipment availability before and during winter or storm seasons. Measure B8. Development of timely communication and coordination plans involving stakeholders and freight operator associations. Measure B9. Roadside vegetation, absorbing generated heat, protecting roads. Measure B10. Design of new heat-resistant asphalt mixes. Measure B11. More heat-resilient bridge joints. Measure B12. Need for improvement of drainage-sewer systems.. Measure B13. New asphalt mixes help in faster drainage of standing water. Measure B14. Enhancement of road layers.. Measure B15. Measures of protection against slope subsidence around road/rail network to avoid cut-off links. Measure B16. Additional pumping in tunnels. Measure B17. Installation of windbreaks. Measure B18. New design standards relating to components of the road network (signs, lighting) enhance users’ protection. 6.2.3. Procedural and Operational Options Measure C1. Organization for the supply of trapped drivers/passengers with the help of volunteers and aid organizations. Measure C2. Adaptation of timetables and service intensities under adverse weather conditions. Measure C3. Need for alternate routes for freight transport. Measure C4. Priority plans that maintain access to hospitals and emergency stations. Measure C5. Definition of priority routes for road clearance in case of large-scale impacts. Measure C6. Tracking of “chain reactions” of extreme weather events, particularly in agglomeration areas. Measure C7. Coordination of emergency plans among transport modes and networks. Measure C8. Iimplementation of appropriate risk management procedures in order to be prepared for adverse conditions. 38 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution 6.2.4. Information Flow and ICT Support Measure D1. Development of sustainable business models for the provision of emergency information systems. Measure D2. Provision of reliable, instant, and—if feasible—personalized information on the duration a climate related incident and travel options. Measure D3. Installation of signs that warn the driver on the upcoming pedestrian flooded network. Measure D4. Development of intelligent feedback systems in vehicles to communicate user needs. Measure D5. Adopted operational, physical, technical, procedural, and institutional integration of weather and traffic control services. Measure D6. Preparation and broad communication on disruptions and alternatives with the public, using a variety of communication channels. Measure D7. Standardization of weather information and hazard warnings. 6.2.5. Decision and Risk Models Measure E1. Provision of cost-benefit assessment guidelines to logistics companies. Measure E2. Assessment of logistics companies’ risk exposure and establishment of appropriate adaptation plans. 6.2.6. Legislative Options Measure F1. Strict speed limit enforcement during storms. Measure F2. Review of maintenance contracts and procedures to make them flexible and effective even under rapidly changing weather conditions. FIGURE 6.1. Roadmap of Adaptation Measures in literature Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 39 7 Lessons learnt from road transport project program for climate change adaptation 7.1 National and local road network development planning Law of Environment Protection No. 72/2020/QH14 requires for national, regional and provincial development sectorial strategy, master plans and plans, such as transport development planning, must be assessed for environment impacts. Key three among ten required contents follows Circular No.27/2015/TT-BTNMT dated 29th May 2015 – Appendix 1.3 are: • Assess the suitability the sectorial strategy, master plans and plans with viewpoints and objectives of environment protection. • Assess and forecast environmental issues while the sectorial strategy, master plans and plans are under implementation. • Assess and forecast impacts of climate change during implementation of the sectorial strategy, master plans and plans. The question how the national and/or local road network development plans adapt to climate change condition still has not clear in the legal documents or in any guidelines of sectorial plans. A good climate change adaption plan helps decision makers having sufficiently clear viewpoint of appropriate and economic solutions. From review the Master Road Network Plan and NDC report, it was found that technical solutions of climate change adaptation are not clearly presented in the Master Planning. A guideline which is under legal document as circular for planning implementation covers climate change adaptation is necessary. 7.2 Typical current WB road projects and program in Vietnam 7.2.1. VRAMP (Vietnam Road Asset Management Project) VRAMP was approved and commenced in December 2013 then restructured in 2019 and 2020 for national road improvement and national road asset management software. The project originally and especially at restructure period provides priority to national roads which are under critical climate change condition. NH6 and NH2 in North Mountain Area, and NH9 in central region are selected for improvement will strengthen these roads themselves and national road network for 40 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution climate change adaptation. Design solutions for climate change adaption were not clear due to non-updated legal standard results to difficulties during approving progress. VRAMs has been built for national road network management. However, natural factors or climate change conditions still has not considered as input data for the road management progress using VRAMs. Road maintenance planning based on traffic document rather than natural condition. 7.2.2. LRAMP (Local Road Asset Management Programme) LRAMP was approved and commenced in 2016 with priority to the areas impacted mostly by climate change in Vietnam. 14 provinces are selected under road program are in the North Mountain and Central Region. 50 provinces are under bridge program give priority to bridges’ selection in remote areas impacted by climate change condition. Under LRAMP, a TA service of climate resilience was provided to support civil works of road improvement and bridge construction. A set of guidelines for climate change adaptation includes: climate change vulnerability assessment for local road; hydrological analysis for local road and bridge design; technical measures for local road and bridge design for climate change adaptation; technical measures of local road maintenance for climate change adaptation; Priorities in management, planning and assessment of climate change adaptation measurements. However, it is found that the TA products are less applicable due to itself applicability as well as limitation of institutional frame because of non-updated standard system. LRAMs still is on-going further development with objective points of G-VPROMP for geo-spatial road network management and G-CBA for geo-spatial road maintenance planning integrated priority criteria of impacted climate factor. LRAMs when completed could provide effective tools for road management and maintenance of climate change adaptation. 7.2.3. CHCIP (Central Highland Connectivity Improvement Project) CHCIP original objectives cover climate change adaptation. A team of climate change adaptation has been mobilized for controlling climate change adaptation at design stages. Recommendations have been provided by climate change international and local experts at preliminary and technical solutions comparison and selection, and at detailed design stage. Working paper 9 of the Short Note on Climate Resilience Options for NH19 Priority Section is an example of the road design solution for climate change adaptation. However, similar with other projects, proposal of design solutions for climate change adaptation were limited by the institutional system of non-updated standards and limited budget. 7.3 Typical road planning and road projects under domestic fund The most typical local road plan is North – South expressway. During development of the North – South expressway plan, floods at the central region was analyzed concurrently with consistency between the longitudinal routes of NH No.14, the North – South expressway, the North – South Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 41 railway and the existing NH. No.1A. It was found that Thong Nhat railway causes severe flooding upstream due to limited drainage capacity of the old drainage structures on the railways. During NH1 upgrade project preparation, a hydrological modelling (NAM model) and hydraulic analysis tool (MIKE 11) was used for flood analyses and technical solutions comparison and selection. The analysis results help technical appraisal for feasibility study and design alternative selection. Experience from many road projects under local state budget show inadequacy of hydrological survey for road design. The shortcomings of surveying work for hydraulic calculation and analysis are at: - Preparation prior surveying works to collect meteorological and hydrological data from available documents for historical flood levels. - Poor hydrological investigation results to incorrect flooding appearance year and inaccurate hydraulic calculation and analysis - Inappropriate selection of location for hydrological investigation results to unreliable data and confusing historical flood levels - Hydrological survey as in current standard required only historical flooding water level, but not: causes of the flood and flood evolution; characteristic of flooding flow with falling rocks, fallen trees or mud; influence if any of tidal flow; erosion at upstream and downstream; overflow at downstream which could make hydraulic analysis short-sighted. - Hydrological survey along flooded road section as in current standard also required only flooded water level, but not: flooding duration and traffic interruption duration; flood depth; location and direction of overflowing and subjectively estimated overflow of swift-flowing, medium or calm flowing compared with erosion and/or landslide occurrence. - There is not specific guidance for hydrological survey at typical terrain, for example of mountainous to require flow characteristic with rolling rocks and mud, or of flat at river mouth to require tidal flow direction and frequency. - Hydrographic engineer and functional tasks of surveying to collect necessary data for hydrological modelling and hydraulic calculation and analysis, providing the analyses and controlling reliability of the collected data rarely are required as key and separated person in a transport project. 42 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution 8 Adaptation Measures in the Vietnam Context 8.1 General The proposed roadmap issues, as listed above, have been summarized from international studies. These issues must be assessed and adapted for use in the specific climate change and road regulatory frameworks in Vietnam. This and the following section proposes revised adaptation measures in the Vietnam context which integrate from output of Vietnam road and bridge standards review and experience and lessons to be learnt from transportation infrastructure development projects. 8.2 Organizational and Decision-Making Processes Measure A1 requires a review and systematic investigation of international standards. This provides challenges of availability and adaptation to Vietnamese standards. It would require a longer review process to adopt fully these standards into the Vietnamese context. However, key standards could be selected to implement in short-term to establish basic legal frame of road transport sector for climate change adaptation. These studies could be in the form of a Technical Assistant (TA) to help the Ministry of Transport (MOT) and other ministries to achieve relevant outputs. Measure A2, A3 require exchanges with the authorities, stakeholders, companies. Given that the awareness of climate change consequences in Vietnam is an initial stage, these tasks would be more difficult some stakeholders than others. The contribution to reducing the vulnerability is rated Very High in this case due to changing institution system. Measure A5 is critical to raise public awareness regarding local hazard situations. However, the contribution to reducing the vulnerability is rated High. For this particular measure, in Vietnam, it is suggested to conduct in short term period. Measure A6 is additionally proposed to create legal corridor to support decision makers during review and approval process for climate adaptation transportation infrastructure. Selected standards have been reviewed under this TA to find specific issues should be improved for climate adaptation. Measure 6 is divided in 05 sub-measures relating to selected standards for revision in short-term which are all in Very High rate of vulnerability reduction. In short-term of 5 years, A6- 1,3,5 are suggested for urgently implementing within 02 first year and the others of A6-2,4 are later urgent required. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 43 TABLE 8.1. Measures of A. Organizational and Decision-Making Processes Measure Description A1 Setting and implementation of international standards for weather and emergency information. A2 Consultation with and coordination of highway authorities and key stakeholders for climate adaptation strategies and adaptation strategy adjustment A3 Establishment of networks of transport companies, management authorities, and users at national, regional and urban level for implementation of adaptation strategies. A4 Dissemination of educational and information material on emergency cases, planning, and maintenance to related authorities. A5 Conduct public campaigns in order to raise public awareness regarding local hazard situations. A6 Improving and supplement of national technical standards system for climate adaptation transport infrastructure Measure A6 should focus on the key road and bridge standards and relevant technical guidelines which are under review and proposed by TA team. The details are presented in Table 8.2 TABLE 8.2. Sub-measures of A6 – Revise, supplement and develop road and bridge standards and relevant technical guidelines for climate change adaptation Measures Description A6-1 Improve TCN existing standards to the national standards or update currently relevant professional specification to incorporate climate change adaptation: i) 22TCN – 211 – 06 – Flexible Pavement Design Specification ii) 22TCN – 263 – 2000 – Road Survey Specification; TCCS 31: 2020 – Highway – Specification for Survey iii) 22TCN 356:2006 – Modified polymer hot asphalt mix – Construction and quality control A6-2 Improve/update design standards of road and bridge for climate change adaptation: i) TCVN 4054:2005 - Highway - Specifications for design ii) TCXD 104:2007 – Urban roads – Specification for design; QCVN 07- 4: 2016 – National Technical Regulation of Transportation Infrastructure iii) TCVN 10380:2014 – Rural roads – Specification for design iv) TCVN 9845: 2013 Calculation of flood flow characteristics corresponds QCVN 02: 2021/BXD – Natural Physical and Climate Data for Construction A6-3 Improve road construction and maintenance standards for climate change adaptation: i) TCVN 9436 : 2012 - Highway embankments and cuttings – Construction and quality control ii) TCVN 8819: 2011 – Hot Asphalt Mix – Construction and quality control iii) TCCS 07: 2013 – Road routine maintenance specification iv) Norm of Road Routine Maintenance under No.3479: 2014 Decision A6-4 Develop road standards of new construction materials and technologies based on available research outputs: i) Recycling and waste materials ii) Low emission construction material and technology A6-5 Develop Technical Guideline of Environment-based and Climate Change Adaptation Road Design. 44 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution 8.3 Technical Options For adaptation in Vietnam context, the technical options could be divided in 04 groups for analyzing to apply and/or modify and supplement. Group 1 includes measures relating to road network development and rehabilitation planning (B1, B4, and B5), which are renamed B1-1, B1-2 and B1-3; TABLE 8.3. Measures of planning of B-1 Technical Options Measure Description B1-1 Create flood barriers system and emergency roads follow flood protection standards B1-2 Coastal road networks planning with appropriate elevation B1-3 Design of and investment in new assets with ‘’quick restoration’’ capability Measure B1-1 must be carefully considered, especially in the South and coastal areas of Vietnam (including Ho Chi Minh city). The priority list for the construction of dikes must be first analyzed, following by the financial plan for the proposed activities. This could require a long process of implementation. Measure B1-2 is rated as a moderate contribution to reducing the vulnerability within both medium and long term in Vietnam. Measure B1-3 could be considered for extremely high risk of climate change impacted areas. Methodology of designing “quick restoration” structures must be clearly approached. The new “quick restoration” assets will be included in the road maintenance planning. Group 2 relates to road drainage improvement (B3, B12, B13, and B16) which are renamed from B2-1 to B2-4; TABLE 8.4. Measures drainage improvement of B. Technical Options Measure Description B2-1 Establish plan and implementation the plan for improving drainage structures on key transport corridors B2-2 Improve drainage systems include side and road slope drains on national, local road networks and urban roads B2-3 Drainage pavement structure (of porous asphalt or cement concrete and base) to help in faster drainage of standing water B2-4 Strengthen drainage by pumping stations for underground structures such as tunnels and in urban areas. The measures of drainage improvement (Group 2) are necessary for the current Vietnam road network, specifically for local road network where the drainage system commonly is insufficient due to limited budget. Ineffective drainage system also could be found in many roads even in high standard road. Less maintenance is major issue, but inappropriate design and under-design compared with climate condition is a common cause of the ineffective drains. Improvement of drainage system should be considered as major as pavement improvement of individual road rehabilitation project. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 45 Requirements for an appropriate and sufficient drainage system should be provided in the updated road design standards as detailed in Table C.1 Annex C. Technical solutions for a comprehensive drainage system should be provided in guidelines, from simple side drains, to moderate complicated of earthwork drains multi- culverts. Measures in B2 group are applicable in Vietnam, with the appropriate timing and cost. B2-2 measure is long-term progress which could be integrated in medium term investment and/or expenditure plans of road rehabilitation and maintenance works. Prioritization should be provided to the key transport corridor for national and urban road network and to higher RAI local roads. B2-3 should be provided to high speed roads for traffic safety and urban roads to support drainage system to reduce flooding period. Group 3 covers measures of innovation construction materials and technologies for being better road performance in climate change condition and/or lower emission (B2, B9, B10, B11, B14, B15, and B17 as in original international documents) which also revised and renamed in order from B3-1 to B3-7; TABLE 8.5. Measures of innovation construction materials and technologies of B. Technical Options Measure Description B3-1 Innovative pavement materials resistant to weathering and enhancement of pavement layers for durability at hard weathers B3-2 Roadside vegetation and bio-engineering solutions for absorbing generated heat and road slope protection. B3-3 Apply new heat-resistant asphalt mixtures B3-4 Apply recycling materials for road and pavement construction B3-5 More heat-resilient bridge joints B3-6 Measures of protection against slope subsidence around road/rail network to avoid cut-off links B3-7 Installation of windbreaks or breakwaters structures on appropriate sections of roads and railways Measures B3-1, B3-3 are rated High in applying to Vietnam, especially for the central region. For B3-3, many MoT-supported research projects have been carried for standardization modified bitumen (PMB) and AC using modified bitumen (BTNP) for anti-rutting pavement. Temporary technical guidelines of high friction asphalt course and porous asphalt for surfacing layer have been issued. The necessity of update and improvement of current construction standards (TCNs) and issue of the formal standard is discussed in Annex C – Table C.1. Beside PMB, BTNP and high friction, porous, many other technical solutions of innovative materials for improving durability of the asphalt pavement have been researched for project applicability and innovative technologies of pavement recycling have been focused on reducing natural material sources utilization. Asphalt pavement recycling has been applied in Vietnam and needs formally standardized. B3-2 and B3-4 measures help reduce emission due to reduce natural resources exploitation and cement utilization. Measures B3-2 requires a lengthy implementation time in Vietnam. Measure B3-6 should be placed on medium-term implementation and Very High contribution. They also create green roads which lower emission due to reduce cement uses. B3-4 should be placed in short term although it has moderate contribution to vulnerability reduction due to asphalt pavement recycling and auxiliary industrial production have been applied in road construction project under domestic budget. 46 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Group 4 are measures road transportation operation and road maintenance (B6; B7; B8 and B18) corresponds to new names of from B4-1 to B4-3 TABLE 8.6. Measures of road operation and maintenance of B.4 Technical Options Measure Description B4-1 Development of timely communication and coordination plans involving stakeholders and freight operator associations for potential “green” transportation flows during extreme weather conditions. B4-2 Develop technical specification and norm for road routine and emergency maintenance considering climate change vulnerable areas. B4-3 Strengthen capacity of road maintenance management and maintenance authorities and/or requirement for strong capacity of road maintenance management and maintenance contractors to have sufficient equipment for emergency maintenance during storm season. B4-4 Provision of road user protection facilities, especially for vulnerable non-motorised road users, during extreme weather conditions includes design standards for road user protection facilities. Measures B4-2, and B4-3 are at Very High rate of road climate resilience and applicable in Vietnam, with the appropriate timing and cost. They should be at high priority for implementation in short-term. Climate vulnerability zoning could help revise norm of road routine and emergency maintenance, then followed by technical specification. The sufficient regime of road maintenance based on climate vulnerable level is legal support for capacity strengthening of the road management and maintenance authorities and contractors. B4-1 needs to be combined with the road network planning for providing the potential “green” road for capably being opened in the extreme weather condition. The road network planning should be combined with the transportation flows planning and maintaining. B4-1 measure is at High rate for climate resilient to be implemented in medium term. Measure B4-4 are challenging to achieve in Vietnam due to there are limited roads for nonmotorized transport in Vietnam. However, this measure encourages non- motorised transportation, then helps to reduce emissions. 8.4 Procedural and Operational Options Measures of procedural and operational options fully follows international practice as in Table 8.7 with adjustments of applicable period. TABLE 8.7. Procedural and Operational Options Measure Description C1 Organization for the supply of trapped drivers/passengers with the help of volunteers and aid organizations C2 Adaptation of timetables and service intensities under adverse weather conditions C3 Need for alternate routes for freight transport and for emergency roads C4 Priority plans that maintain access to hospitals and emergency stations C5 Definition of priority routes for road clearance in case of large-scale impacts C6 Tracking of “chain reactions” of extreme weather events, particularly in agglomeration areas C7 Coordination of emergency plans among transport modes and networks C8 Iimplementation of appropriate risk management procedures in order to be prepared for adverse conditions Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 47 Measures C1, C4, C5, C6 are more urgent due to more serious and higher frequency of extreme climate events occurring in Vietnam. They are at High rate of vulnerability reduction due to capably to provide effective responses during extreme climate events, and in high priority for implementation in short term. Measure C1 should be carefully considered, as Vietnamese authorities might not fully familiar with this type of measure. Measures C3 and C7 is considered applicable in Vietnam combining with master transport network planning which includes multi- transport modes to provide effective transportation during the extreme climate events. They are at Moderate rate of vulnerability reduction and need further time to be implemented in the medium term. Measures C2 and C8 should take advantage of international experiences to develop the process, plans, as well as priority plans to deal with extreme weather events. Several TAs or research projects could also be conducted to strengthen the awareness/knowledge of the Vietnamese authorities/ stakeholders. They are also assessed at Moderate rate of vulnerability reduction with longer time in long-term implementation. 8.5 Information Flow and ICT Support IT measures help rapidly relying and responding to climate change conditions as well as during extreme climate events. These measures provide necessary and sufficient conditions to success of other measures. All D measures (from D1 to D8) are at Very High rate for vulnerability reduction. Rapid development of IT in Vietnam provides highly potential application IT measures in transport sector. All D measures (D1 to D8) are potentially and successfully applied in 10-year of short and medium term. The measures of D5, D6, D7, D8 help road traffic safety increase in existing road networks should be in more priority which could be started in early period (short term). The remaining measures of D1, D2, D3, D4 are challenging to apply in Vietnam in terms of Information Technology. These could need more time in medium-term orientation measures but must go along with the digital transformation process in Vietnam. However, with a medium to high implementation cost, these measures are suggested to perform firstly in expressway network which is on-going development. In the later stage of the roadmap, ITS application in urban areas and in the arterial national routes, specifically in highly climate vulnerable section. Measure D6 of preparation and broad communication on disruptions and alternatives with the public, using a variety of communication channels has been started in Vietnam for traffic congestion information in big cities. Similar methodology should be used for warning extreme climate information to road users. Measure D7 should be developed with cooperation between MOT (DOST, DTS), MIC, MARD and MONRE. Measure D8 is proposed to supplement by TA team for monitoring and dangerous warning system on the section roads which are under highly vulnerable climate change impacts. 48 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution TABLE 8.8. Measures D of Information Technology and ICT Supports Measure Description D1 Development of sustainable business models for the provision of emergency information systems D2 Provision of reliable, instant, and—if feasible—personalized information on the duration a climate related incident and travel options D3 Installation of ITS system includes weather condition monitoring and signs and/or dynamic signs that warn the driver on the extreme weather conditions D4 Development of intelligent feedback systems in vehicles to communicate user needs D5 Adopted operational, physical, technical, procedural, and institutional integration of weather and traffic control services D6 Preparation and broad communication on disruptions and alternatives with the public, using a variety of communication channels D7 Standardization of weather information and hazard warnings D8 Install monitoring and warning systems for transport structures at highly climate vulnerable section such as landslide, flood, flash flood,… 8.6 Decision and Risk Models Measures from E1 to E6 could be short term measures with several TAs or research projects at MOT’s level. TABLE 8.9. Measures E of Decision and Risk Models Measure Description Provision of detailed implementation and budgeting program follows 2021 – 2025 Action Plan of E1 MoT Provision of guideline for transportation infrastructure development planning to integrate climate E2 change adaptation follows 2021 – 2025 Action Plan of MoT1 Provision of guideline for Strategic Environment Assessment for transportation infrastructure E3 development plans Provision of guideline for multi-criteria priority assessment for road works selection includes E4 climate change vulnerability index and accessibility in emergencies Assessment of extreme climate factors exposure of transportation infrastructures to support E5 appropriate adaptation plans Provision of cost-benefit assessment guidelines to logistics companies for transportation mode E6 selection for climate adaptation All of the measures of Decision and Risk Models are suitable to current situation in Vietnam. These should be implemented under TAs using national funds of science and technology or international grant trust funds. 8.7 Legislative Options Measures F1 and F2 could be a short-term perspective. Both are rated Very High contribution and potentially applied in short-term. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 49 TABLE 8.10. Measures F of Legislative Options Measure Description F1 Provision of traffic control and management during extreme climate condition to national standard (QCVN 41:2019) integrate ITS for climate monitoring, such as strict speed limit enforcement during storms using VMS. F2 Review of maintenance contracts and procedures for the flexible and effective contracting system under climate change conditions Summary of discussion on the measures for contribution level to climate change vulnerability reduction and potential implementation in short term (5-year period), medium term (10-year period) and long term (30-year period) are presented in Figure 8.1. FIGURE 8.1. Outline program for proposed measures implementation 50 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution 9 Summary of Experience on Updating Standards Incentives to include climate adaptation in programmes or individual projects are shaped by the policy and the regulatory environment (Standards, Decrees, Guides, Specification). Governments or individual Ministries can facilitate climate-resilient infrastructure by removing policy or regulatory constraints, or by adding regulatory requirements to consider climate risks and facilitate adaptation uptake (OECD, 2017). The review process has been initiated under this TA and a number of recommendations for the updating or amendment of for the Vietnam road-sector regulatory framework have been identified and, although this should be an ongoing exercise, an interim list of general priority areas to be addressed is presented in Table 9.1 TABLE 9.1. Regulatory Amendment General Priority Areas Amendments/Additions Climate Resilience Policy Road network to be planned, design, constructed and maintained to defined climate resilient levels. Climate Resilience Planning and Costing Climate resilience to be a mandatory consideration in all national, provincial, local plans. Project Life Cycle Climate resilience should be a mandatory consideration on all stages of the project or road life cycle: Planning, Feasibility, Design, Construction and Maintenance. Climate Change Data For relevant standards, future climate and hydrological data to be used rather than historical data. Time span of data to be in line with design life of individual assets. Climate Resilience Adaptation Measures Individual road asset design standards and associated cost norms to be amended to take account of climate change issues: for example: • Pavement (sides drainage/erosion) • Alignment geometry – above flood levels • Bridge deck levels • Earthwork slopes/benches/drainage • Use of Bioengineering • Materials (strength/resistance to soaking) • Safety (landslide/flood warnings) • Drainage structures (Drains, Culverts, Bridges,…) with sufficient capacity & appropriately sustainable structures Maintenance Planning and Implementation Climate vulnerability and consequent resilience adaptation included in all maintenance planning models together with any require adjustment to maintenance method and norms. Climate Resilience Monitoring and Inclusion of climate resilience monitoring and evaluation for all Evaluation major projects (National, Provincial, Local) includes effectiveness of adaptation measures and actual climate records. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 51 10 Ways Forward The ReCAP 2019 Climate Change Management Guidelines (Ref 1177) identified a series of steps required for updating standards and design guides to take account of climate adaptations: 1. Review all existing standards, guides, manuals and similar publications/documents to determine whether climate threats and associated adaptation are adequately covered. 2. Determine which documents are being updated (or are soon to be updated) and initiate actions to incorporate adaptation in their Terms of Reference. 3. For those with no immediate plans to update, decide whether to bring forward the update or whether to produce some form of augmentation. 4. Form a multidisciplinary/multisector working group (or groups) to scope out and deliver the necessary adaptation augmentation requirements based on the prioritization set out above. An essential key 1st step is recommended (Table 8.2), and an adaptation workshop with the following key objectives: 1. Policy-planning issues 2. Regulatory framework issues 3. Engineering adaptation 4. Non-engineering adaptation 5. Challenges to embedment 6. Way forward identified The workshop should initiate detailed discussions on the way forward. This could be based around the measures discussed in Chapter 8 so that the proposed roadmap can detail the order that needs to be followed to enhance the resilience of Vietnam road transport system and reduce their vulnerability to climate change impacts. 52 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution FIGURE 10.1. Presents proposed outline program for measures implementation Key standards under review for necessity of update and improvement are proposed in short term for road climate change adaptation. Summary of the proposed standard updates and mapping are summarized in Table 10.1 TABLE 10.1. Road standards for update and improvement in short term (5-year) to 2025 Ord. Standard Road Mapping 22TCN – 211 – 06 – Flexible Pavement Design Specification 2021 - 2022 22TCN – 263 – 2000 – Road Survey Specification; TCCS 31: 2020 – Highway – 1 Specification for Survey 22TCN 356:2006 – Modified polymer hot asphalt mix – Construction and quality control TCVN 4054:2005 - Highway - Specifications for design 2022 - 2023 TCXD 104:2007 – Urban roads – Specification for design; QCVN 7 – 04: 2016 – National technical regulation for transport infrastructure. 2 TCVN 10380:2014 – Rural roads – Specification for design TCVN 9845: 2013 Calculation of flood flow characteristics corresponds QCVN 02: 2021/BXD – Natural Physical and Climate Data for Construction TCVN 9436 : 2012 - Highway embankments and cuttings – Construction and 2021 - 2022 quality control 3 TCVN 8819: 2011 – Hot Asphalt Mix – Construction and quality control TCCS 07: 2013 – Road routine maintenance specification Norm of Road Routine Maintenance under No.3479: 2014 Decision Recycling and waste materials 2022 - 2025 4 Low emission construction material and technology Develop Technical Guideline of Environment-based and Climate Change 2021 - 2022 5 Adaptation Road Design Details of the updated stipulations of the proposed standard updates are provided in the TA final report (Annex C – Table C.1) Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 53 ANNEX A A listing of Relevant Domestic, Regional and International Guidance on Climate Change Resilience World Bank Support Team Final Report Nov 2021 Ref Paper Author Yr Title 1045 ADB 2009 The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review 1055 ADB 2011 Guidelines for Climate Proofing Investment in the Transport Sector: Road Infrastructure Projects. 1061 ADB 2018 Adjusting Hydrological Inputs to Road designs for Climate Change Risk Guidelines to Apply Extreme Value Analysis. 1082 ADB 2011 Lao PDR Transport Sector Assessment, Strategy, and Road Map 1090 ADB 2014 Climate Risk Management in ADB Projects 1092 ADB 2014 Climate Proofing ADB Investment in the Transport Sector Initial Experience. 1096 ADB 2014 Mainstreaming Adaptation into Development Plans in Vietnam. 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Hoa D T H. 1066 WB-ADPC 2014 Landslide Inventory Framework for Critical National and Provincial Roads in Lao PDR. 1067 WB-ADPC 2014 National and Provincial Risk Assessment off Lao PDR Vol. I : Hazard & Element at Risk Risk. 1068 WB-ADPC 2014 National and Provincial Risk Assessment off Lao PDR Vol.2 : Exposure, Vulnerability, Risk Assessment. 1069 WB-ADPC 2014 Strategic Guideline .Mainstreaming Disaster and Climate Risks into the Road Sector in Lao PDR. 1070 WB-ADPC 2014 Procedure & Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Transport Sector 1071 WB-ADPC 2014 Technical Guideline Resilient Road Infrastructure in Lao PDR 1072 WB-ADPC 2014 Lesson Learn From Good Practices Resilient Infrastructure and its Relevance to Lao PDR. 1074 WB-ADPC 2014 Mainstreaming Disaster and Climate Risk Management into Investment Decisions Road Slope Risk Assessment in Lao PDR. 1073 WB-MPWT 2017 SEA DRM Project – Lao PDR. 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Volume 2: Pathway to Resilient Transport 1105 World Bank 2015 Making Transport Climate Resilient. 1108 World Bank 2011 Climate-Resilient Development in Vietnam: Strategic Directions for the World Bank. 1121 World Bank 2005 Notes on the economic evaluation of transport projects. Low volume roads. WB Transport note TRN 21, Washington. 1152 World Bank 2018 Metadata of the Climate Change Knowledge Portal. 1173 World Bank 2010 Natural Disasters and Household Welfare Evidence from Vietnam. Policy Research Working Paper 5491 1175 World Bank 2010 Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change. Synthesis Report. 1176 World Bank 2010 Vietnam: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change. 1059 World Bank, Ebinger, 2015 Moving Toward Climate-Resilient Transport: The World Bank’s Vandyke Experience from Building Adaptation into Programs 1005 World Bank; Arup 2017 Incorporating Climate Risk into Performance-Based Contracting 1004 World Bank; IMC 2014 Disaster Risk Management in the Transport Sector. A Practical Worldwide Guidance Note 1086 World Bank-IMC. 2015 Disaster Risk Management in the Transport Sector. A Review of Concepts and International Case Studies. World Bank report.98202. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/524081468188378328/pdf/98202-WP-P126896-Box391506B- PUBLIC-DRM-Final.pdf 1001 World Road 2015 International Climate Change Adaptation Framework for Road Association – PIARC Infrastructure, WRA/PIARC 1005 WREA 2015 Lao PDR National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA). 62 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution ANNEX B Summaries of Key Domestic, Regional and International Guidance and Experience with Integration of CCR in Transport Planning World Bank Support Team Final Report Nov 2021 64 B1: Vietnam Specific Documents Foreword Database Document Summary Key Lessons for NDC Ref. No. 1007 ICEM. 2014. Promoting Climate Resilient Overall report on low-cost climate-proofing measures suitable for rural Provides links to sperate documents on Rural Infrastructure in Northern infrastructure in northern Viet Nam; demonstration of climate resilient standard design procedures, costs and Vietnam, Final Report. techniques in the provinces of Bac Kan and Son La on two rural roads, one specifications for bioengineering irrigation scheme, and one river embankment; associated training materials; recommendations for the integration into training curricula, standard design procedures, and contract specifications; and identification of climate change risks and vulnerabilities. 1043 Neumann. 2012. Risks of Coastal Storm The impact of sea level rise and storm surge on the Red River delta region This document demonstrates a Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise of Vietnam an area already known to be highly vulnerable to coastal risks. vulnerability methodology for disaster in the Red River Delta, Vietnam. UNU- Analysis of permanently inundated lands and temporary flood zones shown planning and vulnerability assessment WIDER. and vulnerability methodology demonstrated for disaster planning and purposes. vulnerability assessment purposes. 1044 Chinowsky. 2012. Road Infrastructure Focus on the physical asset of road infrastructure in Vietnam by evaluating This document recognises climate and Climate Change in Vietnam. UNU- the potential impact of changes from climate including sea level rise, change adaptation as an important WIDER. precipitation, temperature and flooding. Mean additional cost of component of planning and policy in maintaining the same road network through 2050 amount to US$10.5 the current and near future. billion. 1061 ADB. 2018. Adjusting Hydrological Roads and bridges are identified as vulnerable infrastructure elements Provides guidance on working Inputs to Road designs for Climate due to increased flood risk in Vietnam. The assessment recommends effectively within existing standards and Change Risk Guidelines to Apply that detailed engineering designs incorporate increased flooding risk guidelines. Extreme Value Analysis. due to climate change. The report describes an approach for including climate change in the detailed design of roads and associated structures. The guidelines serve two purposes. First, they provide background understanding on the rationale for re-assessing design flood levels to consider climate change impacts based on climate modelling projections. Second, they described steps to guide practitioners in adjusting design flood levels. Database Document Summary Key Lessons for NDC Ref. No. 1084 UNPD, 2012. Technical Guidance The Government of Vietnam programs have identified that one of the This document aims to provide policy- for Integrating Climate Change into important tasks is to integrate climate change into socio-economic makers from the central to local levels Development Plans (Vietnam). Institute development strategies, planning processes and plans to implement the with general information on climate of Meteorology, Hydrology and activities of climate change response effectively and align the objective of policy integration, the activities Environment climate change response and sustainable socio-economic development. implemented before mainstreaming, the mainstreaming process as well as the tools that may be used to support the process of mainstreaming climate change into socio-economic development plans. 1062 TA8102-VIE: Promoting Climate Resilient Provides the detailed technical designs of selected bioengineering and The document includes the drawings Rural Infrastructure in Northern Viet associated engineering options used to protect and increase the resilience cost norms and specifications for Nam TR-18 Slope Protection Designs of roadside slopes and riverbanks against surface erosion and shallow 16 techniques that were physically and Specifications. ADB-ICEM. failure. Has a long term purpose of establishing a critical mass of trained demonstrated at five sites in four engineers and technicians able to use bioengineering as a low-cost, climate locations in three provinces of northern resilient tool. Vietnam. 1063 Promoting Climate Resilient Rural Provides guidance on the selection of appropriate bioengineering and Bioengineering and low cost Infrastructure in Northern Vietnam, associated engineering options for the surface protection of roadside engineering techniques demonstrated Technical Report 17: Bioengineering – slopes and riverbanks, and to increase their resilience to extreme climatic by this project are described in detail Field Guidelines for Slope Protection. events. Although the guidance is aimed primarily at rural infrastructure, its and illustrated in this document. ADB-ICEM. principles may be adapted for use in other slope protection environments. Generally appropriate for immediate protection of both cut and fill slopes and riverbanks against surface erosion and shallow mass movement. In the longer term, they increase the resilience of the sites to withstand extreme climatic events. 1087 IMHEN 2011. Vietnam Institute This document develops a detailed guidance on the method of assessment Contains tools for assessing climate of Meteorology, Hydrology and of climate change impacts and identification of specific adaptation change in various sectors including Environment Technical Guidance for the measures. It aims to assist the state, non-governmental organizations and transport. Contains a section on the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts the private sector to: position of impact assessment in the and the Identification of Adaptation • Implement the climate impact assessment at city/provincial level; planning process for climate change Measures.. response. • Prioritize climate change impacts for consideration; • Identify adaptation measures; • Select appropriate adaptation measures. Foreword 65 66 Database Document Summary Key Lessons for NDC Ref. No. 1088 MONRE GoV, 2016. Climate Change Provides scenarios of climate change and sea level rise for Viet Nam as The document makes recommendations Foreword and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Viet updated in 2016 following the roadmap defined in the National Strategy on procedures in determining climate Nam. Ministry of Natural Resources on Climate Change. The document provides the latest information on change scenarios as well as the most and Environment. Vietnam. http://imh. the trends of climate change and sea level rise in recent years, as well as relevant changes in the planning ac.vn/files/doc/KichbanBDKH/CCS_ climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Viet Nam in the 21st century. process. SPM_2016.pdf Recommendations include when applying climate change and sea level rise scenarios for impact assessments, it is necessary to consider and analyse carefully all the possible occurrences of a future climate. 1089 Wilby R. 2019. Climate Change This Knowledge Product (KP) explains the rationale and procedures for This document indicates how Adjustments for Detailed Engineering incorporating allowances for climate change in detailed engineering design procedures can be undertaken within Design with Worked Examples from Viet (DED). Attention is focused on credible adjustments to extreme rainfall, the existing Vietnam regulatory Nam. An ADB Knowledge Product. mean and high-end sea level rise. The DED should reflect the possibility framework. Links are included of climate-driven changes in multi-hazards at a site. The procedures are for specific Policy and Practice of demonstrated with worked examples drawn from the Viet Nam road Adaptation in the Coastal Zone transport sector and peer reviewed research literature. An accompanying Step-by-Step Manual shows how each calculation is performed. These principles and practices are intended to be transferrable to other sectors, regions and stages of asset life-cycle (from project concept to decommissioning). 1095 Takagi H, Esteban M & Thao D. 2014. Introduction to the book “Coastal Disasters and Climate Change in Vietnam: Provide references to the main book – Introduction: Coastal Disasters and Engineering and Planning Perspectives” which attempts to describe including management actions required Climate Change in Vietnam. the present day state of Vietnamese coasts. It also provides the latest for seal level rise adaptations. Provides information regarding various engineering and social challenges, along with specific examples. state-of-the art academic research findings regarding how to adapt against the risks associated with coastal disasters and future climate change in Vietnam. It also looks at crucial management and adaptation efforts. 1096 ADB, 2014. Mainstreaming Adaptation Challenges are pressuring Vietnam to step up its policy-making efforts and This document summarises with into Development Plans in Vietnam. measures to enhance public awareness and capacity to address climate diagrams the current frameworks for Case Study 1.5 change impacts, while also promoting economic development. Vietnam has mainstreaming climate adaptation with seen high economic growth rate in the past decades. responsibilities split between different ministries and departments and frequently delegated down to province and district levels. Recommendations are made for institutional and management improvement. Database Document Summary Key Lessons for NDC Ref. No. 1097 MoT. 2018. Guidance on Climate This document provides background to issues of climate resilience for the Appendices include detail on (A) Climate Resilience in Local Road and Bridge Vietnam road network. Climate change is summarised for regions of Vietnam Change Trends in Climate Regions (B) Network. 1. Climate change to roads and the various impacts are summarised. The document introduces of the Quantifying component indexes of and assessing vulnerability level of concept of road vulnerability, sensitivity and adaptability. Three methods Sensitivity (D) Quantifying component roads due to climate change. of assessing vulnerability to climate change, from simple to complex, are indexes of Adaptability. Appendix D. developed as a guide to use in local road projects. Proposes some indicators to assess the vulnerability level of local roads. This draft requiring significant editing 1098 MoT. 2018. Guidance on Climate Document No. 2 provides guidance on hydrological analysis and calculation This document works within existing Resilience in Local Road and Bridge for the design of small bridges and drainage works to adapt to climate regulatory framework but does not Network. Document 2: Guidelines on change. It includes (1) Climate change factors in hydrological analysis really deal effectively with climate hydrological analysis and calculation and hydraulic calculation of drainage works in the areas of the LRAMP. (2) change. Provides useful links to exiting for local bridge and water drainage Guidance on collecting and surveying input data and analyzing for small standards etc but This draft requiring construction designs adapting to bridges and drainage works to adapt to climate change in the LRAMP. (3) significant editing climate change. Guidance on hydrology, hydraulic calculation of culverts and drainage works on roads to adapt to climate change. (3) Guidance on hydrological analysis and calculation of bridges to adapt to climate change.. 1099 MoT. 2018. Guidance on Climate Document 3 focuses on providing adaptation solutions to climate change Provides guidance on adaptation Resilience in Local Road and Bridge in the design and construction of local roads. Specifically including the options but this draft requires significant Network. Document 3. Guideline for following: (1) Guidance for conducting survey for local road design to adapt editing. application of technical solutions in to climate change. (2) Technical solutions in designing traffic to adapt to design and construction of local roads climate change. (3) Solutions to the construction process to adapt to climate adapting climate change change. (4). Guidance on the application of bioengineering in construction slope protection. 1100 MoT. 2018. Guidance on Climate The Guideline on maintenance of local roads in the climate change context Does not really deal with climate change Resilience in Local Road and aims to provide necessary technical guidance to facilitate road managers and hence this draft requires significant Bridge Network. Document 4: Key and technical staff (at district and commune levels) and local people as well editing. considerations in maintenance of local as other organizations and individuals involving in local road maintenance road adapting to climate change to implement their job effectively. This guideline needs to be considered and applied together with the technical instructions mentioned above. The guideline includes the following: (1) The general concepts of road maintenance in the context of climate change adaptation. (2) Preparation of maintenance plan for local roads considering climate change.(3) Organization local roads maintenance, including local communities. (4) Technical maintenance instructions to improve the adaptability of local roads to climate change. Foreword 67 68 Database Document Summary Key Lessons for NDC Ref. No. 1101 MoT. 2018. Guidance on Climate Document No. 5 focuses on the long-term development of local roads Deals to some extent with planning and Foreword Resilience in Local Road and Bridge with priorities in planning, management and evaluation of climate change prioritisation but contains misleading Network. Document 5. Long-term adaptation measures, including the following: (1) Criteria for dealing with suggestions and this draft requires development of local networks: roads and structures on roads damaged by climate change; (2) Guidelines on significant editing Priorities in management, planning prioritizing climate impacts and enhancing climate adaptation;(3) Guidelines and assessment of climate change on prioritizing climate impacts and enhancing climate adaptation.. adaptation measurements. 1102 World Bank 2019. Addressing Climate A vision and strategy for climate-smart transport, in order to minimize the Presents the results from the Transport Change in Transport. Volume 2: Pathway carbon footprint of the sector while ensuring its resilience against future Multi-Hazard Risk Analysis at national to Resilient Transport. World Bank risks. Presented in two volumes: V1—Pathway to Low Carbon Transport and provincial scales in order to Vietnam Transport Knowledge Series. and V 2—Pathway to Resilient Transport. This 2nd volume provides a understand. the economic impacts (Jung Eun Oh, Alegre X O, Pant R, Koks E methodological framework to analyze network criticality and vulnerability, of disruptions to multimodal freight E, Russell T, Schoenmakers R, & Hall J W.) and to prioritize investments to enhance resilience. Presents the results from transportation due to infrastructure the Transport Multi-Hazard Risk Analysis at national and provincial scales. failures. The national analysis covers key national-scale roads, railways, civil aviation, inland waterways, and maritime systems in Vietnam. At the national scale using 3 provinces Lao Cai, Binh Dinh, and Thanh Hoa, to understand the economic impacts of disruptions to multimodal freight transportation due to infrastructure failures. 1103 Van C T, Tri D Q, , Son N T , Thao T T, The vulnerability, flood hazards, and exposure are three indicators Flood vulnerability index (FVI) is a factor and Hoa D T H. 2019. Determining the to calculating and assessing flood risk in the Mekong Delta river. The to estimate hazards and vulnerability vulnerability index in the context of vulnerability index is based on three criteria, including sensitivity and including adaptive capacity, exposure, high floods in An Giang Province” adaptive capacity related to the economic, social, and environmental and sensitivity, which might be applied aspects and benefits that floods bring to the Mekong Delta river.. This paper for master planning. uses the vulnerability index method which is the sum of the components including the sensitivity, resilience and benefits of floods to calculate and assess the flood vulnerability of 155 communes in 11 districts of An Giang province. 1104 IMHEN-UNDP- 2015. Viet Nam Special The SREX Viet Nam assesses extreme events and their impact on the natural Disaster risk management and Report on Managing the Risks of environment, social economic development and sustainable development adaptation to climate change focus on Extreme Events and Disasters to of Viet Nam; the future changes in extreme climate events due to climate reducing exposure and vulnerability and Advance Climate Change Adaptation. change; interactions between climatic, environmental and human factors; increasing resilience to the potential and promote adaptation to climate change and management of risks of adverse impacts of climate extremes, disaster and extreme events in Viet Nam. even though risks cannot fully be eliminated Database Document Summary Key Lessons for NDC Ref. No. 1108 World Bank. 2011 Climate-Resilient This report presents some strategic thinking on how the World Bank can The report includes a Moving Forward Development in Vietnam: Strategic prioritize our assistance on climate change to Vietnam. The report outlines section which addresses the question Directions for the World Bank. the current (2011) understanding of what climate change actually means of “How?”, with a focus on the kinds for Vietnam, relying heavily on the government’s own scenarios. Short texts of assistance the Bank can offer, with on each of a few key adaptation and mitigation sectors outline challenges, particular emphasis on emerging and opportunities, and present Bank activities. The report lays out some key funding opportunities. priorities for Bank activities and funding. 1114 CSIRO (Australia), 2014. High-resolution Enhancing Vietnam’s capacity to develop regional scale climate projections, Three stages in pathway to future climate projections for Vietnam. www. enabling more robust national and provincial climate change action plans to climate change adaptation planning csiro.2011.au. underpin adaptation planning and to prioritise investment. This document in Vietnam consisting of three linked provides links to the Climate Futures Tool (http://climatetool.vnclimate.vn/) phases Phase 1 focused on ‘capacity which allows the end user to view the spread of possible projections for building’; Phase 2 ‘policy and program the seven sub‑regions of Vietnam. In addition, the Tool guides the end user development’; Phase 2, Phase 3 involved in choosing possible projections that may be used to assess the impact of ‘implementation, adoption and scaling climate change for different applications. out’. 1116 Tull, K. 2019. Development, Climate The information on climate change and resilience included in this report Provide links to key international and Environment: An Annotated are taken from a variety of global sources. An assortment of peer-reviewed documents and videos on climate Bibliography. K4D Helpdesk Report 644. research and graphic/visual evidence is supplied. Online, local/country- change and its mitigation and Brighton, UK: Institute of Development based and international tools for monitoring and evaluation currently adaptation options. Includes a section Studies. available for use are also highlighted. A section on gender also included, on gender and climate change. as it is a key issue that women will be more adversely affected by changes in climate and natural resources. Finally, a choice of potential solutions to dealing with various climate and environmental issues (as well as possible barriers to bear in mind), are listed, with supportive evidence. Foreword 69 70 B2: Regional Documents Foreword Database Document Summary Key Lessons for NDC Ref. No. 1003 World Bank. 2017. Road Defines types of geohazards, ground hazards, and water hazards. Not Outlines the background requirement for Law, Geohazard Management specifically climate. Outlines framework and methodology for risk Regulations and Standards and suggests levels of Handbook. assessment and adaptation measures. Focus on Asian region. application. Flow charts of actions are included. 1011 Francisco. 2009. Climate Information on the sub-national areas (regions/districts/provinces) Visual presentation of Vietnam with in assessments of Change Vulnerability most vulnerable to climate change impacts in Southeast Asia. Definition regional climate related hazard and vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia. of these vulnerable areas in a map for ease of reference of interested EEPSEA parties. Where: Vulnerability = f(exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity 1025 ICEM. 2011. The Climate Climate change adaptation and mitigation methodology (CAM) Outlines an integrated approach to climate change Change Adaptation and developed specifically for the Asia Pacific region and has been mitigation and adaptation that recognises their close Mitigation Methodology, extensively tested and adjusted in projects. The methodology combines relationship. CAM addresses the need for a flexible CAM a range of tools developed by ICEM and based on international and and integrated approach to adaptation and mitigation regional best practice. planning that can be tailored to each situation and projects across all levels and systems. 1026 USAID. 2015. Mekong The key objective to increase adaptation capacity and resilience of Provides an example of downscaling climate modelling Adaptation and Resilience communities to the negative impacts of climate change. The project to local levels and its involvement in planning for to Climate Change (USAID undertook downscaled climate science modelling and then interpreted mitigation and adaptation at local levels. Mekong ARCC). this in terms of specific impacts on eco and agrarian systems across the Basin. Input from communities to validate recent shifts in weather patterns. 1042 ADB. 2014. Toward a The ADB Sustainable Transport Appraisal Rating (STAR) is a tool for Provides an example of project rating system that could Sustainability Appraisal assessing the sustainability of ADB transport projects includes references provide lessons for developing a VN climate resilience Framework for Transport. to the issues of climate change and how climate impacts (floods etc) can assessment framework. be included in project appraisal. 1045 ADB. 2009. The Economics Reviewing and scoping of existing climate studies, climate change Summarises CC impacts across a wide spectrum of of Climate Change in modelling, and national and regional consultations with experts and sectors Agriculture, Forestry, Coastal, Marine Resources, Southeast Asia: A Regional policy-makers. It examines how vulnerable S E Asia is to climate change, Health. Discusses both mitigation and adaptation Review. how climate change is impacting the region, what adaptation measures options in general terms- with some specific examples have been taken by the five study countries to-date. and how SE Asia can as lessons to be learnt. step up adaptation and mitigation efforts, and what the policy priorities are. Database Document Summary Key Lessons for NDC Ref. No. 1052 NDF World Bank. 2016. Best way to avoid damage caused by climate change are prevention Provides details on engineering adaptation options Climate Resilient Roads, and preparedness. Suitable methods for mitigation of various negative for roads. Discusses the role of planning and economic Cambodia. climate impacts on physical infrastructure are thoroughly described assessment. Provides advice and examples on economic in this report together with supporting financial and cost & benefit analysis of CR adaptation options. analyses. Suitable methods for vulnerability mapping in general and vulnerability mapping of roads in particular are described, including a case study 1060 World Resources Institute. This paper presents lessons and recommendations synthesized from Provides lesson to be learnt on (i) Improving 2016. Toward Decision- recent research and convening activities supported by DFID under the information: and how do we ensure that this “must have” Relevant Information project “Information for Climate Adaptation in South Asia: Identifying information exists and is made available to decision Systems for Adaptation to User Needs.” This paper explores information as an input into adaptation makers? (ii) Coping with imperfect information: how Climate Change in South decision making, mainly through a user-focused view of information, can decision makers best leverage existing information? Asia. DFID and user demand for information; considered from two main angles: What approaches to adaptation best help them avoid Improving information and coping with imperfect information delay in action? 1064 World Bank 2018. The Report of workshop that focused on integrating geohazard disaster risk Although focused on focused on overall disaster risk Second South Asia Regional management, including resilient road asset management and disaster management, resilient road asset management and South-To-South Learning preparedness in each country’s infrastructure program to help promote disaster preparedness in the transport sector, this Workshop on Building the safety of people within a sustainable transport sector as . The document brings together DRM and CR together and Resilience to Landslide and workshop is part of the “Building Resilience to Landslide and Geohazard. demonstrates the importance of the links that need to Geohazard Risk in Transport Risk in the South Asia Region” program. developed. Sector. World Bank. Foreword 71 72 B3: Selection of Key International Documents Foreword Database Document Summary Key Lessons for NDC Ref. No. 1001 WRA-PIARC. 2015. International Framework developed to guide road authorities through The framework facilitates the identification Climate Change Adaptation identifying relevant assets and climatic variables for assessment, and replication of lessons learned from other Framework for Road Infrastructure. identifying and prioritising risks, developing a robust adaptation countries and takes account of the varying levels of response and integrating assessment findings into decision- preparedness and adaptive capacity and knowledge making processes. The framework provides a life-cycle and iterative from country-to-country and region-to-region. It is approach to climate change adaptation. also designed to be applicable at any scale (such as national, regional, local or asset specific. 1002 ERA-NET. 2010. Risk Management A concise methodological guide to risk management for roads The method is designed to be general and to for Roads in a Changing Climate. regarding climate change in Europe. This should enable the user to meet the common needs of road owners and road A Guidebook to the RIMAROCC identify the climatic risks and to implement optimal action plans administrators in Europe. The method seeks to Method that maximise the economic return to the road owner taking into present a framework and an overall approach to account construction cost, maintenance and environment. adaptation to climate change. The method is based on existing risk analysis and risk management tools. Also provides a useful glossary. 1004 World Bank. 2014. Disaster Risk A guidance document for WB TTLs seeking to build the resilience This paper provides a roadmap illustration of how Management in the Transport of transport systems in donor countries. It sets out the principles of resilience can be included within the WB project Sector. A Practical Guidance Note. resilience in transport and examples of the practical measures can cycle. It is noted that to develop practical and IMC Worldwide. be included in projects to mainstream resilience across multiple relevant guidelines require engaging with and domains and across the Disaster Risk Management (DRM) cycle. understanding existing national decision making processes in more depth. 1112 ReCAP.2019. Climate Adaptation: Engineering and non-engineering adaptation options are This Guideline highlights the impacts of different Risk Management and Resilience presented. The crucial importance of effective drainage is climatic impacts on road networks and suggests a Optimisation for Vulnerable Road highlighted. Adaptation techniques for handling the expected range of engineering adaptation measures that can Access in Africa: Engineering changes in temperature and precipitation, windiness, seal-level rise be implemented to overcome the problems. These Adaptation Options Report. DfID- and more frequent extreme events are identified and discussed. can be implemented during the design phases of ReCAP. These are specifically related to unpaved roads, paved roads, new roads or installed in existing infrastructure subgrade materials, earthworks and drainage within and outside in response to potential problems arising from the road reserve as well as possible implications for construction potential climate changes and available budgets activities. The importance of timely and good maintenance practices is also highlighted and guidance given. Database Document Summary Key Lessons for NDC Ref. No. 1006 ReCAP. 2019. Climate Adaptation: Provides relevant information on climate adaptation procedures This is an overarching document and illustrates Risk Management and Resilience for rural road access, along with instructions on an appropriate the fundamental principles, processes and steps Optimisation for Vulnerable Road methodology to address climate threats and asset vulnerability, required for climate resilience. Access in Africa: Climate Adaptation to increase resilience for the foreseeable future. Detail regarding Handbook. DfID-ReCAP actual adaptation approaches and measures are included in the accompanying Guidelines covering Change Management (1177), Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (1178), and Engineering Adaptation (1112) 1177 ReCAP. 2019Climate Adaptation: The Guideline presented in this document acts as a supporting This document t covers policy and planning, Risk Management and Resilience document to the Climate Adaptation Handbook (ref 1006) and aims stakeholder and asset management, and Optimisation for Vulnerable specifically at providing change management guidelines relating to recommendations for the formulation of strategies and Road Access in Africa: Change non-engineering adaptation options. programmes for improvement. As such, this Guideline Management Guideline. CSIR for targets especially decision makers in government at DfID-ReCAP national, provincial/state and district level. 1178 ReCAP. 2019. Climate Adaptation: The guideline document in hand is a supporting document to the This document takes users through the steps Risk Management and Resilience Climate Adaption Handbook (ref 1006) and deals with climate risk involved in conducting a risk and vulnerability Optimisation for Vulnerable Road and vulnerability assessments related to climate change adaptation. assessment at national-/regional-level, as well as Access in Africa: Climate Risk and The purpose of this guideline is therefore to take the user through at local-/project-level risk and vulnerability study Vulnerability Assessment Guideline. the process of gaining a comprehensive understanding of the main when implementing new or maintaining/retrofitting CSIR for DfID-ReCAP climate risks that may affect the road network and how these risks existing infrastructure. Flow charts and phased translate to an increased vulnerability of both the road network and stages are listed. the dependent population and economies. The guidelines focus on how these approaches will differ, given the scale of analyses conducted and the different role players, methods, tools and data needed to conduct such a risk and vulnerability study 1179 ReCAP. 2019.Climate Adaptation: This manual is aimed at road authority staff in general and in The manual describes the nature and collection of Risk Management and Resilience particular persons responsible for assessing the vulnerability of climate vulnerability data, which is normally not part Optimisation for Vulnerable Road road infrastructure to the impact of climate change. The impact of of the routine data collection for asset management Access in Africa: Visual Assessment climate variability and change on roads may require that vulnerable purposes. This includes issues such as erosion, Manual. CSIR for DfID-ReCAP sections of the road infrastructure are identified, and adaptations problem soils, drainage from the road and its near made to minimise potential future climate-related damage. t is, environment as well as from outside the road reserve, however, necessary to add to add climate vulnerability data to instability of embankments and cuttings, construction provide the required inputs for climate resilience assessments issues and maintenance problems. A standard form and the implementation of appropriate adaptation techniques to for recording the data is provided with a worked improve the climate resilience of the infrastructure. example and photos of the rated distresses F Foreword 73 74 Database Document Summary Key Lessons for NDC Ref. No. Foreword 1034 Lwasa S. 2015. A Systematic Review A systematic review methodology was used to scan online This paper concludes that adaptation is biased of Research on Climate Change knowledge portals for published papers and also unpublished toward development sectors and not integrated Adaptation Policy and Practice in government documents. The review characterizes the state of from household to community levels. Efforts are not Africa and South Asia Deltas. adaptation policy in African and South Asian deltas and identifies properly mainstreamed in national-level policies for future research priorities targeting climate change adaptation in resilience building and transformational adaptation. large delta regions. A large collection of relevant documents are The review shows that adaptation policy gaps exist referenced on-line. surrounding knowledge advancement, scaling up actions, the “adaptation gap” and the move from incremental adaptation to transformational adaptation. 1038 De Souza et al. 2015. Vulnerability Key issues for policy-relevant adaptation and resilience building The analysis of this study shows that adaptation to Climate Change in Three Hot research. This serves as an overview to seven papers that are initiatives are being primarily driven at the national spots in Africa and Asia . brought together in a special edition. This editorial introduction level, with apparent minimal involvement of lower providing background on these hot spots, the program through levels of government or collaboration across which the studies were commissioned. nations. There is very little work to date cross-sector and actors to implement adaptation options and the private sector is absent in adaptation reporting. 1041 World Bank. 2016. How to Make Tools for PPPs in CR. Emerging markets, climate change threatens CR and PPPs. The challenge of incorporating climate Infrastructure Climate Resilient. IFC infrastructure that is critical for development. Because private risks into PPP contracts is that these contracts are WB companies and investors in emerging markets often manage currently ill suited to managing unpredictability. infrastructure projects through public-private partnerships, they Ultimately financiers, governments, and insurers will will now need to address climate change risks when planning and need to come together to identify innovative new building these projects. The uncertainty of such risks has made insurance products and approaches to deal with incorporating them into project planning a challenge, but new climate change risks. tools and approaches, including insurance, are helping PPPs better respond to climate risks. 1017 World Bank. 2017. Integrating Overview and recommended processes and frameworks for The long-term changes in average climatic Climate Change into Road Asset the integration of climate adaptation into life cycle transport indicators can be readily assimilated into the AM Management. asset management. Challenges exist to research and academia processes owing to the life cycle of many road in understanding climatic impacts on road networks better, assets being less than that of the time for significant developing more resilient technologies and, developing a change to occur. The main exceptions being around better understanding to quantify the impact/benefits of climate very long-life assets such as bridges. Leadership is adaptation strategies. required to facilitate and incentivise integration of CR into AM. There is a significant responsibility of road agencies and funding bodies to push for drastic changes that will allow for this integration. Database Document Summary Key Lessons for NDC Ref. No. 1046 UNFCCC. 2009. Climate Change: Outlines the impact of climate change in four developing country For countries to understand their local climate Impacts, Vulnerabilities and regions: Africa, Asia, Latin America and small island developing better and Adaptation in Developing States; and also the vulnerability of these regions to future climate thus be able to predict local climate change, they Countries.. change; current adaptation plans, strategies and actions; and future must adaptation options and needs. have adequate operational national systematic observing networks, and access to the data available from other global and regional networks. A major problem in all regions is the limited capacity at regional and national level due to deficiencies in data collection and the lack of technical expertise. 1047 IPCC.2014. Climate Change 2014. This Synthesis Report is based on the reports of the three Working The Synthesis Report distils and integrates the Synthesis Report.. Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), findings of the three Working Group contributions including relevant Special Reports. It provides an integrated view to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the of climate change as the final part of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Report (AR5). Provides the primary evidence base on which CR strategies are based. 1051 Barrang-Ford L.,et al. 2015. Highlights innovative applications of systematic approaches, Present an analysis of approaches for systematic Systematic review approaches for with a focus on the unique challenges of integrating multiple review and research synthesis and examine their climate change adaptation. data sources and formats in reviewing climate change adaptation applicability in an adaptation context. A strength policy and practice. Presents guidelines, key considerations, and of systematic approaches is that explicitly reported recommendations for systematic review in the social sciences in methods allow the quality and reliability of results general and adaptation research in particular. Calls for increased to be reproduced and examined. Methods are conceptual and methodological development of systematic discussed. review approaches to address the methodological challenges of synthesizing and tracking adaptation to climate change. A strength of systematic approaches is that explicitly reported methods allow the quality and reliability of results to be reproduced and examined. Foreword 75 76 Database Document Summary Key Lessons for NDC Ref. No. Foreword 1053 Barrang-Ford et al. 2015. The status The current status of adaptation in 47 vulnerable ‘hotspot’ nations There is need for researchers, practitioners, policy of climate change adaptation in in Asia and Africa, based on a systematic review of the peer- makers, donors, and governments to identify and Africa and Asia.. reviewed and grey literature, as well as policy documents, to extract characterize the state of policies, measures and evidence of adaptation initiatives. Adaptations are primarily being strategies designed to reduce the burden of climate reported from African and low-income countries, particularly change impacts, both as a means of evaluating those nations receiving adaptation funds, involve a combination of the effectiveness of adaptation support, informing groundwork and more concrete adaptations to reduce vulnerability, governance at various levels on adaptation needs, and are primarily being driven by national governments, NGOs, and and justifying funding allocation. Targeted research international institutions, with minimal involvement of lower levels may be needed in VN to further investigate of government or collaboration across nations. the status of adaptation to inform potential prioritization of future adaptation financing. 1056 Qunitero J.D. 2010. A Guide to Part of an effort to provide sound, science-based information and Includes the best practices to be followed at each Good Practices for Environmentally advice on building practices for road construction. It documents stage of the project cycle to integrate environmental Friendly Roads. good practices of roads built in a thoughtful, reduced-impact considerations. Good practice smarter engineering way. It promotes a more holistic, life-cycle approach to addressing has links to climate resilience. impacts on nature, which is needed to break from the reactive, ad hoc approach that characterizes business as usual nowadays 1058 World Bank. 2013. Turn Down the Summary of how of climate and weather extremes cause Does not focus on the transport sector but provides Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional devastation and a wider view of impacts and the need for increased Impacts, and the Case for Resilience. human suffering. Multiple threats of increasing extreme heat waves, resilience. sea-level rise, more severe storms, droughts and floods will have severe negative implications for the poorest and most vulnerable. This report extends this previous analysis by focusing on the risks of climate change to development in three critical regions of the world: Sub-Saharan Africa, South East Asia and South Asia. 1059 World Bank, 2015. Moving Toward This report reviews the World Bank’s efforts and experience in Adaptive management measures that include Climate-Resilient Transport: The building resilient transport systems. The tools and approaches are monitoring infrastructure responses to changing World Bank’s Experience from discussed: upstream sectoral and spatial planning to post-disaster climate extremes will need to be part of the Building Adaptation into Programs. risk and recovery support, from infrastructure system solutions transport’s response. Maintenance regimes need to and support to building an enabling environment—have all been be adjusted and codes revised as needed The useful piloted, and all contribute to reducing climate risks and increasing lifetime of some transport infrastructure is long and the resilience of transport systems. Way forward -mainstreaming spans several decades from design to the end of its the building of resilience in the transport sector will require a much operational life. During that period, the climate may more systematic approach. go through considerable change.. Database Document Summary Key Lessons for NDC Ref. No. 1078 ERA-NET Road. 2009. State of the art Predicted climate changes will affect highways performance, If According to Austroads, the increase of costs caused of likely effect of climate on current temperatures rise and precipitation increases, it looks as though by a change in climate will be much higher for the roads. present design theory and construction techniques must be road users than for the owner, and this means that amended. Cracking due to thermal effects; More rapid ageing changes in road design and maintenance will be increases embrittlement, with a consequent loss of waterproofing induced more by the user expectation than by the of the surface seal. Surface water can enter the pavement causing owner’s response to climate induced damage potholing and loss of surface condition. Links to research on temperature, water and road deterioration. 1080 GIZ. 2015. Impact Evaluation This Guidebook supports project managers by providing an The Guidebook aims to provide ‘hands-on’ Guidebook for Climate Change overview of different impact evaluation methods for climate information, it contains a number of hints, Adaptation Projects. change projects and how they can be applied to climate change definitions, practical examples, links to further adaptation projects. The application is illustrated by a case study of reading material and checklists an adaptation project in Bangladesh. Rigorous Impact Evaluations (RIEs): involves the collection of a considerable amount of empirical data and make it possible to attribute observed changes to a particular intervention or at least quantify the contribution an intervention has made to these changes. 1055 ADB. 2011. Guidelines for A guide project teams as they integrate climate change adaptation Encompasses lessons learned and good practices Climate Proofing Investment and risk management into each step of project processing, design, identified through several completed and ongoing in the Transport Sector: Road and implementation.. ADB road projects. Part A: Climate Change and the Infrastructure Projects. Transport Sector; Part B: Climate Proofing Road Investment Projects; Part C: Building Adaptation Strategies into Policy and Sector Planning 1183 Vallejo, L. and M. Mullan (2017), This paper provides a framework for action aimed at national The document discusses the need to align spatial “Climate-resilient policymakers in OECD countries to help them ensure new and planning policies, national and international infrastructure: Getting the policies existing infrastructure is resilient to climate change. It examines technical standards, and economic policies and right”, OECD Environment national governments’ action in OECD countries, and provides regulation in support of infrastructure resilience. recent insights from professional and industry associations, Governments may want to ensure international, Working Papers, No. 121, OECD development banks and other financial institutions on how to make national and local approaches are aligned in order Publishing, Paris. infrastructure more resilient to climate change. to facilitate private-sector adaptation. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/02f74d61- en Foreword 77 ANNEX C Design, Construction and Maintenance Standards Review for Climate Adaptation World Bank Support Team Final Report Nov 2021 TABLE C.1. Road design, construction and maintenance standards Article No. Contents Comments and Recommendations for Climate Adaptation TCVN 4054:2005 Risk analysis interaction There are no road design stipulations for analysing potential risks of between climate and flood, landslide, damages due to critical storm in TCVN 4054:2005. climate change impact on There are no stipulations for analysing potential risks of negative the road network and on climate change impact on designed roads and structures in this each road components. standard. There are no supporting annex documents or guidance on the collection of statistic data and analysis to define the road sections at risk of flooding, landslide, or other damage due to climate change. The standard of TCVN 4054: 2005 needs to be updated in terms of incorporating climate change impact, analysis of interaction between climate and climate change impact on the road network and on road assets. 4.4 Median The medians are introduced in the standard for from 4-lanes more than 4-lanes road without consideration of drainage in case of flooding. Below is a typical case on NH1 of concrete median obstructing flooding flow and make flooding is more serious in one side of the road. (Figure C.1-1) Figure C.1-1: Flooding is more critical due to obstructed concrete medium. 7 Road embankment Climate change impacts on road embankment as yet is not mentioned in this section. It needs to be included as a climate change impact factor to be taken into account on road embankment design for most regions of Vietnam. 8 Pavement structure Climate change impacts on road pavement as yet not mentioned and treated shoulder in this section. It needs to be included as a climate change impact pavement factor on road pavement for flexible and rigid pavement structures together with supplemental stipulations for flexible pavement design and rigid pavement design. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 79 Article No. Contents Comments and Recommendations for Climate Adaptation 7.3.2 The elevation of road The flood frequency given in Table 30 depends on structure embankment at drainage type and road grade are not consistent and irrelevant with the structures crossing construction standards of QCVN 01:2021 (issued 19/5/2021). low-land area should be There should be clearer technical criteria for special cases that least 0,5m higher than designer can propose for lower elevation of road embankment that calculated water level the calculated value. References from other standard (such as QCVN corresponding to the 01:2021) could be used for solution of the special cases. design flooding frequency Guidance for “checking long-term stability of the drainage depend on the structures structures” in the special cases when using lower elevation should and road grade. In the be provided in the annex of the standard or in separated design special cases the road guideline as legal support documents. embankment elevation could be lower than the calculated value depends on designer proposal and decided by client. 7.3.3 The elevation of the Subgrade elevation is highly at risk of impact under climate change pavement structure of conditions depending on vulnerability analysis. The risk also subgrade must be higher depends on filling materials. The stipulation of 7.3.3 is not clear than the calculated for specific cases of climate change impact vulnerability (flooding groundwater level (or and elevation of underground water level), filling materials for permanent standing embankment, subgrade thickness and material. water level) as specified in Table 22 under 7.3.3 article should be improved to cover and to clear Table 22” the impacts factor and specific cases. 9.3 Side drain There is not any stipulation to consider increased rainfall, rain frequency for designing side drains. There are not any supporting documents as an annex (attached to the standard and/or guideline) for side drain hydraulic analysis and cross-section (dimensions) estimation of side drain depending on hydrological regime and hydraulic analysis. The stipulation of providing side drain when embankment height is lower than 0,6m might be not suitable for road sections which are highly impacted by climate change with increased rainfall and higher designed rain frequency. 9.4 Cut-off drain There is not any stipulation to consider increased rainfall, rain frequency for designing cut-off drains. There are not any supporting documents as an annex (attached to the standard and/or guideline) for cut-off drain hydraulic analysis and cross-section (dimensions) estimation of cut-off drain depends on hydrological regime and hydraulic analysis. Stipulations on the collection of data considering climate change adaptation for hydraulic analysis of cut-off drain should be added in the standard. 9.5 Turn-out drain There is not any stipulation to consider increased rainfall, rain frequency for designing turn-out drains. There are not any supporting documents as an annex (attached to the standard and/or guideline) for turn-out drain hydraulic analysis and cross-section (dimensions) estimation of turn-out drain depends on hydrological regime and hydraulic analysis. Stipulations on the collection of data considering climate change adaptation for hydraulic analysis of turn-out drain should be added in the standard. 80 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Article No. Contents Comments and Recommendations for Climate Adaptation 9.6 Chute and cascade drain There is not any stipulation to consider increased rainfall, rain frequency for designing chute/cascade drains. There are not any supporting documents as an annex (attached to the standard and/or guideline) for chute/cascade drain hydraulic analysis and cross-section (dimensions) estimation of chute/cascade drain depends on hydrological regime and hydraulic analysis. Stipulations on the collected data considering climate change adaptation for hydraulic analysis of chute/cascade drain should be added in the standard 9.7 Underground drainage There are not any supporting documents as an annex (attached to the works standard and/or guideline) for chute/cascade drain hydraulic analysis and cross-section (dimensions) estimation of chute/cascade drain depends on hydrological regime and hydraulic analysis. The data for drain hydraulic analysis should consider climate change impact. 10 Bridges, culverts, tunnels Climate change impact factors of increased rainfall, flooding and other structures frequency and sea level rise are as yet not mentioned in the crossing the flow standard. There are not any supporting documents as an annex (attached to the standard and/or guideline) for hydraulic analysis of bridges, culverts, and other drainage structures depends on hydrological regime considering climate change impact factors. Stipulations on the collected data considering climate change adaptation for hydraulic analysis of bridges, culverts drain should be added in the standard. The annex or guideline should be also supplemented. TCVN 5729:2012 Risk analysis of climate As with TCVN 4054:2005, there are not any stipulations for analysing change impacts. potential risks of flood and landslide damage due to critical storm for designing a road. There are no supporting guidance documents attached as annex on collection of statistic data of climate change and on using the data for road design For expressways, in addition to the requirements mentioned in this standard, the design must comply with the basic requirements and design principles and other regulations mentioned in TCVN 4054:2005. Therefore, the contents considered and proposed in accordance with climate change for TCVN 5729:2012 are also selected as for TCVN 4054:2005 mentioned above. TCXD 104:2007 and QCVN 07- 02,04:2016 Risk analysis of climate As with TCVN 4054:2005, there are no stipulations for analysing change impacts potential risks of flood and landslide damages due to critical storm for designing urban roads. There are no supporting guidance documents attached as annex on collection of statistic data of climate change and on using the data for urban road design Incorporating climate change impact factors of critical storm flooding, should be considered an integral component of urban road network and urban road infrastructure design The standard needs to be updated and improved or guideline for urban road design should be develop incorporating climate change adaptation in the same way to incorporating updated other standard, such as QCVN 01:2021. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 81 Article No. Contents Comments and Recommendations for Climate Adaptation For urban roads, in addition to the requirements mentioned in this standard, the design must comply with the basic requirements and design principles and other regulations mentioned in TCVN 4054:2005, TCVN 5729:2012. . Therefore, the contents considered and proposed in accordance with climate change for TCXDVN 104: 2007 are also selected as for TCVN 4054:2005, TCVN 5729:2012 mentioned above. 14.3 Design of pavement For urban pavement materials, it is necessary to have mandatory structure regulations and encourage for the use of recycled asphalt mixture (hot recycling and cold recycling), recycled concrete pavement, warm mix asphalt, in order to minimize exploitation resources, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and environmental pollution. 15 Urban drainage planning Urban drainage system: It is necessary to consider more specific and urban planning regulations on urban drainage systems in areas affected by climate elevations. change with increased rainfall, increased frequency, and more floods. Especially urban areas in Mekong river delta that are heavily influenced by high tides and saline intrusion. A guideline to hydraulic analysis for urban drainage system using appropriate tool is needed to assess interaction between climate change factors and urban infrastructure system. Elevation of streets and intersections should be consistent with urban road drainage planning. There are still not any stipulations in the standard for climate change scenarios for roads and structure, nor a requirement for interactions between urban road and other urban infrastructure. . 16 Underground structures There are not any stipulations regarding underground structures and climate change impact factors in the standard. The standard needs to be updated and improved to provide formal stipulations for designing urban underground structures which consider to potential climate change impact factors follow the specified climate changes scenario. 17.1 Tree and Greenery There are still no stipulations regarding technical criteria and requirement of greenery corresponding to road/street grade in the urban area. It is necessary to update the standard with stipulation of greenery on urban road/street to respond to climate change, prevent noise, dust, heat and absorb toxic gases emitted by vehicles; improve and improve traffic conditions on the road: prevent glare from oncoming traffic. TCVN 10380:2014 Rural road – specification As with TCVN 4054:2005, there are not any stipulations for designed for design low traffic rural road for analysing potential risks of flood and landslide damages due to critical storm. There are no supporting guidance documents attached as annex on collection of statistic data of climate change and on using the data for low traffic rural road design The standard needs to be updated to supplement stipulations on climate change adaptation. 82 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Article No. Contents Comments and Recommendations for Climate Adaptation 5.5 Embankment Stipulations of road embankments are not included with climate change impact factors. Road embankment stabilization and climate change impacts depends on regions; this is not mentioned in the standards. Design flood frequency for hydraulic analysis for embankment elevation and drainage structure size is defined in the standard based on the grade of low traffic rural road. However, incorporation of climate change impact factors still has not included. The standard should be updated by supplementing stipulations to define major climate change impact factors for low traffic rural road depending on climate regions, stipulations for deciding road embankment geometry, as well as embankment stabilization is related to grade of road, climate regions and specific road sections. 5.5.10 Drainage Stipulations of drains system design for rural road includes side ditches, cut-off drains, turn-out drains, but still has no mention of climate impact factors of increased rainfall and critical storm and rain, flooding, increased temperature, sea level rising, saltwater intrusion. Consider the arrangement and size of culverts in accordance with increased rainfall volume, increased rainfall frequency, high floods, due to climate change and sea level rise and salinization. 5.6 Pavement Climate change impact factors on pavement structure also are not mentioned in the standards. Information of target national program of new rural development could be considered. 6 Structures on the road Climate change impact factors is not mentioned in the standards for major structures of bridges, culverts, embankment stabilization and protection. 22TCN – 211 – 06 Flexible pavement Input data of subgrade and unbound base and sub-base layer structure – design impacted by duration working under saturation is not stipulated in specification the standard. Strength data of asphalt layer impacted by high temperature and duration working under heating condition due to climate changes is not stipulated in the standard. Specific stipulation for surface and layer material selection consider climate change impact factors for typical regions are not provided in the standard. Input data of new materials and technologies of pavement for climate adaptation and climate change mitigation, such as modified asphalt, warm asphalt, porous asphalt and porous base layer, recycling materials, are still not updated. Pavement structure drainage incorporating climate data is not included in the standard As a whole, the standard needs to be updated and improved incorporating climate change impact factors. 1.4 Contents of flexible Supplement the content of pavement structure drainage design pavement structure with drain types and pavement structure with porous layers for design drainage; data input and hydraulic analysis of the pavement structure drains. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 83 Article No. Contents Comments and Recommendations for Climate Adaptation 1.5 Contents and requirement Some contents and corresponding requirement should be added: of survey for pavement • Specify climate change impact factors on flexible pavement structure design data structure input • Specify surveying works for incorporating climate change impacts on input data: (i) subgrade and unbound base/ sub-base materials depends on working duration under saturated condition; (ii) strength of asphalt material based on temperature and critical temperature; (iii) new/modified materials properties for input data. 2.1 Pavement structure Principle of pavement design incorporating climate change impact design principles factors should be added 2.2 to 2.7 Pavement structural Stipulations required for pavement structure layers selection and design (Pavement pavement drainage design considering climate change impacts. ( structure layers selection) Annex B Input data of subgrade Update from available research projects on subgrade input data and the importance of saturation and its duration. TCVN 9845: 2013 Calculation of flood flow characteristics 3 Term and definitions Terms and definitions relating to climate change and climate change impacts factors and defined climate change scenario should be added. 5 Crest discharge, flood Supplement stipulations required relating to climate change impact discharge, outflow flood factors on the flood flow characteristics. hydrograph, An annex or guideline for hydrologic calculation of crest discharge, flood discharge (including the use of rain frequency maximum daily rainfall depending on design rain frequency), outflow flood hydrograph integrating increased rainfall and impact of sea level rising should be supplemented in the standard or developed. 6 Define span of small Examples should be provided in the annex of standard for bridge and culvert calculation/analysis steps to define span of a small bridge and culverts (one for each of pipe, box and arch culvert) 7 Define span of culvert More details stipulations and annex of guidance should be provided, considering flood at inlet especially for section 7.10 Define span of culvert Still missing from current version of the standard considering tidal flow Stipulations and guidance should be supplement for another case of impact culvert span considering high water level at outlet (due to sea level rising or tidal flow impact) Define flood water level Annex or separated guideline for developing outflow flood along road from outflow hydrograph and defining flood water level along road and at flood hydrograph or using structure locations from outflow flood hydrograph should be analysis hydrological tool. provided. Annex or separated guideline for using MIKE software to define flood water level (considering climate change impact factors) 84 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Article No. Contents Comments and Recommendations for Climate Adaptation 22TCN – 263 – 2000 – The standard has been over 20 years in use since before climate Road Survey Specification change was considered as global topical issue. The standard needs TCCS 31:2020 – Highway – to be re-written, updated and improved Specification for Surveys TCCS 31:2020 has just been updated and issued, however, it has not included the climate change information and guidance of data collection and surveying works to collect and analysis climate change information and impact of climate change on road networks and road design works. Part 2 Surveying works for There are no articles for surveying the climate change impact factors pre-FS to incorporate pre-FS. It is required to supplement the climate change impact factors within the pre-FS, specifically: • Vulnerability of the studied road project with the climate change impact. • Data relating to the climate change impact factors for collection, in chapter 2 for topography survey, chapter 3 for hydrological investigation, chapter 4 for geological investigation, chapter 5 for socio-economic survey, chapter 6 for environmental survey. • Methods for collecting the data of climate change impact factors These regulations should also be included in the updated standard of TCCS 31:2020. Part 3 Surveying works for There are no articles on surveying the climate change impact factors preliminary design and FS to incorporate within FS. The proposal for surveying works incorporated climate change impact factors are similar for pre-FS above. TCVN 9436 : 2012 - Climate change impact factors have not been mentioned in the Highway embankments standard and cuttings – Construction and quality control 11.2.2 Temporary construction The temporary construction road and bridge in areas seriously road and bridge impacted by climate change require calculated elevation and/ or stabilization of the road and size (span) of the culverts/bridges based on selected flood frequency. 11.2.6 Excavation of structures Safety requirements relating to the climate change impact factors foundation and/or should be included. drainage canal 11.2.7 In water excavation Cofferdam should be calculated incorporating the climate change impact factors. TCVN 8819: 2011 – Hot Asphalt Mix – Construction and quality control 1 Application There are no stipulations relating to climate change condition, despite highest temperature of pavement depends on high ambient temperature and daily heat duration. The stipulations for applying conventional hot mix asphalt should be improved for climate change. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 85 Article No. Contents Comments and Recommendations for Climate Adaptation 22TCN 356:2006 – The standard needs to be updated Modified polymer hot Application conditions relating to increased maximum daily asphalt mix – Construction temperature and daily heat duration. and quality control Temporary guideline of The standards for construction and quality control or legally formal other modified asphalt guideline should be developed based on the temporary technical mix, porous asphalt. guideline. Application condition relating to climate conditions should be included. Temporary guideline of The standards for construction and quality control or legally formal asphalt recycling, warm guideline should be developed based on the temporary technical mix asphalt. guideline. Application condition relating to climate conditions should be included. TCCS 07: 2013 – Road routine maintenance specification 4.2 Road management The road maintenance includes checking road and structure activities condition before storm season and the damages after the storm. Assessment of climate change impacts for climate adaption road maintenance planning are not mentioned. Damages survey and assessment corresponding to climate data is required. Norm of Road Routine Maintenance No.3479: 2014 Part 1 Road routine maintenance Climate change impact zoning should be undertaken. Higher norm quantity of road routine maintenance quantity should be provided for the critical climate change regions, such as mountainous areas (North, Central Highland), central region and coastal. Part 2 Norm of road routine Requires adjustment to take account of climate change. maintenance QLD.10100 Road patrol Data on climate change and its impacts on road and structure damages for climate adaption road maintenance planning should be included QLD.10300 Periodic and emergency Climate change impact zoning should be made. Higher norm of & 10400 inspection for updating emergency inspection and data collection should be provided for data of roads and bridges the critical climate change regions, such as mountainous areas damages and storm and (North, Central Highland), central region and coastal. flood data 86 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution TABLE C.2. Review bridge design standard (TCVN 11823:2017) Article Contents ( TCVN 11823:2017) Comments and No. Recommendations for Climate Adaptation Part 1 TCVN 11823-1:2017 Highway bridge design specification – Part 1: General specification 1. 4.2.5 Extreme Event Limit States For the Extreme Event Limit Extreme Event Limit States must be considered to ensure the States, two factors related to survival of the bridge during earthquakes or major floods or the impacts of climate change, when hit by ships or vehicles, and also in erosion conditions. namely large floods and erosion conditions, have been mentioned. Part 2 TCVN 11823-2:2017 Highway bridge design specification – Part 2: General design and location features 2. 3.2.2.4 The pavement on the bridge must have anti-shearing and Obligatory and super-elevated (*) anti-rutting properties, good drainage and sufficient super- drainage requirements must be in elevation conforming to TCVN 4054:2005 line with road design standards 2.3.3.1 Clearance: Updated according to inland waterway standards This is an important update, (*) TCVN 5664 - 2009 related to Clearance, according to the provisions of TCVN 5664-2009 (TCVN 5664: 2009 replaces TCVN 5664: 1992.) TCVN 5664: 2009 compiled by the Vietnam Inland Waterway Administration, Transport recommended, regulated by the General Department of Standards, Metrology and Quality, and published by the Ministry of Science and Technology. It also is recommended to review and update TCVN 5664: 2009 taking into account factors due to climate change. 2.3.4(*) ENVIRONMENT The river geomorphology, the The impact of the bridge and the bridge approach consequences of river bed embankments on the local population, historical sites, arable erosion, the washing away land and sensitive areas in terms of aesthetics, environment of vegetation reinforcing and ecology must all be considered. Design must comply the embankment must be with all relevant environmental regulations. In accordance considered, and in case of with National laws on the use of riverbanks, fish and wildlife necessity, the effects on the tidal habitats must be protected. The river geomorphology, the dynamics of the estuary must all consequences of river bed erosion, the washing away of be considered along within the vegetation reinforcing the embankment must be considered, context of climate change and in case of necessity, the effects on the tidal dynamics of the estuary must be considered. 2.4.2(*) Study of topography This study includes location The current topographical map of the bridge must be history during the movement of established using contour maps and photographs. This land masses, soil erosion and river study includes location history during the movement of land meandering within the climate masses, soil erosion and river meandering. change context 2. 5.2.1(*) The concrete of the bridge structure placed in sea water, These are the necessary material above sea level and adjacent to sea water as well as industrial requirements considering the areas with harsh environment must be concrete with suitable climate and marine environment anti-corrosion properties. Measures shall be taken to protect materials susceptible to damage from solar radiation and air pollution. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 87 Article Contents ( TCVN 11823:2017) Comments and No. Recommendations for Climate Adaptation 2.5.2.1.2(*) Structural arrangement of structural self-protecting details Taking into account SLR and Where open joints are used, the bridge bearings must be saline intrusion. protected against contact with salt water and debris. 2.5.2.6 Deformation regulations. Climatic changes in temperature There are additional provisions for the deformation of straight have an impact on structural beams on curved bridges and curved beams on curved deformation bridges. 2.5.2.6.2 Standard on deflection, supplementing the mandatory Potentially affected by climatic regulation to control the deflection of reinforced concrete changes in temperature. slabs with three sides, and welded steel bridge decks. Additional regulations for calculating deflection for curved beams of section I and box section. 2.6.3(*) Hydrological ANALYSIS Floods need to be adequately The scale of the hydrological studies based on road grade investigated through hydrological should be determined according to the function, applicable research of climate change law and flood hazard in the field. The issues should be adequately investigated in hydrological research: (i) To assess flood hazard and satisfy the requirements of wetland management; (ii) To assess risk to road users and assess damage to bridges and access overflow and/or erosive design flood; (iii) To assess flood disaster in high-risk areas – a test flood with an intensity selected appropriate to site conditions and perceived risks; (iv) To investigate and study the suitability of bridge foundations in erosion control; (v) To satisfy policy requirements and design criteria – Bridge Opening design flood and bridge erosion design flood for different road classes; (vi) Calibration of water levels and performance evaluation of existing structures - Historical floods; (vii) Assessment of environmental conditions - Information on basic or low-flow discharge and structures passing through the river mouth, tidal range; (viii) For projects that cross the marine/estuarine reserve areas, it is necessary to investigate and study the influence of tidal amplitude of sea level rise. 2.6.4.3(*) Bridge Opening The design process to determine The design process to determine the Bridge Opening should Bridge Opening should include include assessment of flood distribution in the host stream assessment of flood distribution and in the riverbank for current conditions, variation in flow in the host stream and in the rate. riverbank for current conditions, Combinations of road longitudinal alignments and bridge variation in flow rate. lengths to meet design objectives. Relevant future hydrological and • The effect of water level in the upstream of the bridge flood related data must be used. due to the bridge structure impeding the flow When using existing flood studies, their accuracy must be determined. The bridge size must be designed in accordance with the design flood of the Bridge Opening corresponding to the 1% flood frequency, unless otherwise specified. It is possible to choose a recurrence period of less than 100 years if there is an economic rationale (such as a 50-year flood or a 25-year flood for bridges on a secondary or lower grade road as specified in TCVN 4054: 2005). 88 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Article Contents ( TCVN 11823:2017) Comments and No. Recommendations for Climate Adaptation 2.6.4.4.2 (*) Bridge erosion In this set of standards, erosion at As specified in Article 7.5, Part 3 of this set of standards, scour the bridge foundation is studied at bridge foundation is studied for 2 conditions: • Erosion due for 2 conditions Erosion due to to design flood: design flood depth and local erosion due to design flood: design flood depth design flood must be determined. i.e. flood equivalent to flood and local erosion due to design of frequency specified for bridge design, usually 100 year flood, flood except for small bridge works on local road. Design floods due Requires climate change data to rain with high tide or mixed floods should be considered, input. which are usually more severe. In places where there is a need for dredging for waterway traffic, the overall erosion depth should consider the depth of river bed erosion over time due to the influence of dredging and other factors. • Test flood erosion: Stabilization of the bridge foundation must be studied for erosion conditions caused by sudden flood surges due to storm surges with high tides, or mixed floods that do not exceed 500- year floods or overflow floods with a period smaller recurrence period. Erosion due to flood control is used to control the bridge foundation at a special limit state. 2.6.6 (*) DRAIN SURFACE WATER The bridge deck and the bridge The bridge deck and the bridge approach embankments approach embankments should should be designed to ensure safe and effective surface water be designed to ensure safe and drainage with minimal damage to the bridge and maximum effective surface water drainage safety for vehicular traffic. Bridge decks, including pavements, with minimal damage to the bicycle paths and pedestrian paths must be made with a bridge and maximum safety for horizontal or super high enough slope to allow good drainage vehicular traffic. in the horizontal direction. For wide bridges with more than 3 Requires climate change data lanes in each direction, special design for surface drainage and/ input. or special roughness may be required to reduce the possibility of vehicle rolling due to loss of friction. Water flowing down the roadway should be blocked from flowing into the bridge. The drainage ditch at the bridge approach embankments should be capable of draining all the collected water. In very environmentally sensitive cases where it is not possible to discharge water directly from the bridge deck to the river below, it is necessary to consider the solution of conducting water along a vertical drainage pipe attached to the bottom of the bridge span structure and discharging it into the river. fit on the natural ground at the bridge approach embankments. 2.6.6.2 (*) Design rainfall Regulations on design rainfall, Design rainfall for bridge surface drainage must not be less refer to the calculation method than design rainfall for bridge approach embankments of US. pavement drainage, unless otherwise specified. Requires relevant Vietnam climate change data input. 2.6.6.3 (*) Type, size and number of drain pipes The number of drain pipes to be The number of drain pipes should be kept to a minimum in kept to a minimum in accordance accordance with hydraulic requirements. In the absence of with hydraulic requirements other practical instructions, for bridges where the design Requires relevant Vietnam climate vehicle speed on the road is less than 75 km/h, the size and change data input. number of drainage pipes should ensure that water does not flood half the width of any lane. which car. For bridges where the design vehicle speed on the road is not less than 75 km/h, it is necessary to ensure that water does not flood any part of the lane. The trench should be blocked at the slope change to prevent water from flowing over the deck. The drain hole or sump of the deck must be sufficient for drainage and easy to clean. The minimum internal size of the common drain pipe should not be less than 100mm Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 89 Article Contents ( TCVN 11823:2017) Comments and No. Recommendations for Climate Adaptation 2.6.6.4 (*) Draining water from the bridge deck drain pipe Detailed requirements for the The deck drainage pipe shall be designed and installed so that Bridge Surface Drainage Pipe water from the deck or pavement is directed away from the -requires relevant Vietnam members of the superstructure and the substructure. If there climate change data input. are no special requirements for testing water released from drains and pipes, consideration should be given to: 2.6.6.5 Structural Drainage Structural drainage requirements (*) The holes in the structure are likely to collect water, it is need to place the drainage hole necessary to place the drainage hole at the lowest point. The at the lowest point bridge deck and deck cover must be designed to avoid water Requires relevant Vietnam climate stagnation, especially at the bridge deck joints. For bridge change data input. decks with non-uniform coating or decks with formwork left, it is necessary to find a solution to drain the water that may accumulate on the adjacent surface. Part 3 TCVN 11823-3:2017 Highway bridge design specification – Part 3: Loads and load factors 3.4 Load factors and load combinations/combinations Consider the effects of loads on - Redefining the intensity state II. (bridge design standard bridge structures such as wind 22TCN272-05 does not stipulate this strength state) is a load and temperature effects combination with vehicle load type according to the use requires relevant Vietnam climate requirements of the Owner. - Additional regulations on the change data input.… use of load combinations when assessing general stability. 3.8 WIND LOAD: WL AND WS Wind regulations need to be researched and updated in accordance with climate change scenarios. 3.12. Temperature In the future, Part of temperature - Regulating the temperature in table 3.12.2.11 is the range regulation need to updated to of temperature fluctuations, not the spherical temperature appendix. Requires relevant amplitude as in the 1998 version, causing confusion. Vietnam climate change data input. 3. 11.2.1 Temperature range Consider updating the (*) temperature boundary table The temperature at the bridge site uses the air temperature in the shade with a 100-year repetition period for the building site This is a factor to consider and adjust in the future Part 4 TCVN 11823-4:2017 Highway bridge design specification – Part 4: Structure analysis and evaluation 90 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Article Contents ( TCVN 11823:2017) Comments and No. Recommendations for Climate Adaptation 4.6.2.7 (*) Distribution of horizontal wind loads in bridge girder system Horizontal wind load requirements in the girder system requires relevant Vietnam climate change data input. 4. 6.6 (*) TEMPERATURE GRADIEN ANALYSIS Requirements for determination When the determination of the internal force due to a vertical of internal force due to thermal thermal gradient is required, the analysis should take into gradient needs relevant Vietnam account axial elongation, bending strain and internal stresses. climate change data input. The gradients must comply with Article 11.3 Part 3 of this standard. 4. 7.2.2 (*) 7.2.2 Oscillation due to wind Scientific studies are needed to 7.2.2.1 Wind speeds supplement the effects of climate For critical structures sensitive to wind effects, the location change, especially for large cable- and magnitude of the extreme pressure and suction values ​​ stay bridges should be determined by wind tunnel tests. 7.2.2.2 Kinetic effects Wind-sensitive structures must be analysed for dynamic effects such as turbulence or gusts, and wind-structure instability such as jolts and wobbles. Thin or pliable structures should be analysed for buckling, over-lifting, and progressive deflection. 7.2.2.3. Structural design solutions Vibratory deformation under wind action can lead to excessive stresses, structural fatigue, and inconvenience or inconvenience to the user. The bridge deck, cable-stayed and cable-stayed cables must be protected from excessive turbulence and fluctuations due to wind and rain. In practical application, the use of dampers should be considered to control excessive dynamic effects. When damper settings or shape change are not possible, the structural system must be altered to achieve that control. Part 5 TCVN 11823-5:2017 Highway bridge design specification – Part 5: Concrete structures 5.4.2.1 Cement content has more specific regulations for high Consider the impact of climate performance concrete (HPC): the amount of cement does not change on material performance exceed 593Kg/m3 expanding the use of high limit reinforcement 690 MPa and high compressive strength concrete (70 MPa and 105 MPa) 5.4.2.3 Creep and shrinkage: specifying shrinkage and creep Consider the impact of climate characteristics can be applied to concrete with compressive change on material performance strength up to 105MPa. - The coefficients from the shrinkage variable change completely. 5.6.2 (*) THE EFFECT OF FORCED DEFORMATION Effect of forced deformation due The effects of forced deformation due to shrinkage, to shrinkage, temperature change temperature change, creep, prestressing and bearing displacement must be considered. 5.7.3.6 (*) Deformations Expansion joint strains and 7.3.6.1 General The provisions of Article 5.2.6 Part 2 of this bearings must be accommodated standard shall be complied with. Expansion joints and for dimensional variations caused bearings must accommodate dimensional variations caused by loads, creep, shrinkage, by loads, creep, shrinkage, temperature changes, cylindrical temperature changes, cylindrical settlement and prestressing. settlement and post-tensioning. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 91 Article Contents ( TCVN 11823:2017) Comments and No. Recommendations for Climate Adaptation 5.10.8 (*) REINFORCEMENT TO WITHSTAND SHRINKAGE AND Regulations on reinforcement TEMPERATURE for shrinkage and temperature Reinforcement to withstand shrinkage and temperature require relevant Vietnam climate stresses should be placed near concrete surfaces exposed to change data input. daily temperature changes and in bulk structural concrete. Reinforcing heat and shrinkage must be arranged to ensure that the total reinforcement in exposed surfaces is not less than specified in this Article. Shrinkage and temperature resistant reinforcement can be arranged with bars, welded wire mesh panels or prestressed steels. 5. 14.2.3.5 Thermal effects during construction Requirement for the temperature (*) Thermal effects that may occur during bridge construction variation of bearings and must be considered. The temperature variation for bearings expansion joints needs relevant and expansion joints shall be stated in the design documents. Vietnam climate change data input. PART 6 TCVN 11823-6:2017 Highway bridge design specification – Part 6: Steel structures PART 9 TCVN 11823-9:2017 Highway bridge design specification – Part 9: Deck and deck systems 9.8.3.3 (*) Surface coating on the bridge Regulations on coatings on The deck coating should be considered as an integral part of the bridge deck, there should the orthogonal deck system and shall be bonded to the steel be studies to adjust to climate deck of the deck. change. PART 10 TCVN 11823-10:2017 Highway bridge design specification – Part 10: Foundations The entire section 10 was rewritten on the basis of updating Requires relevant Vietnam climate new research results on the reliability coefficient for the change data input. foundation. PART 11 TCVN 11823-11:2017 Highway bridge design specification – Part 11: Abutments, piers and wall Entire section 11 has been changed, in the 2002 research Reviewing regulations on report period the entire chapter has been rewritten. protection of structures against erosion caused by rain and floods . Requires relevant Vietnam climate change data input. 11.5.2 (*) SERVICE LIMIT STATES Erosion corresponding to design General When designing a foundation at the service limit water level requires relevant state, the following issues must be considered: • Subsidence Vietnam climate change data • Horizontal displacement • Overall stability, and • Erosion input. corresponding to the design water level. 11.5.5.3 (*) Extreme Event Limit States Foundation For Extreme Event Limit States Erosion The design of the foundation must have the nominal Foundation structures are not resistance after the erosion caused by the calculated flood and only counted with loads placed check according to Articles 6.4.4.2 Part 2 of this standard and on the structure but also any 7.5 Part 3 of this standard and ensure the following resistance. type of loads and drifts that occur scour withstands insufficient strength combined loads and during floods. equal resistance coefficients. With the uprooting resistance of Requires relevant Vietnam climate piles and drilled piles, the resistance coefficient is taken to be change data input. 0.8 or less. Foundation structures not only account for loads placed on the structure but also for any type of loads and drifts that occur during the flood. 92 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Article Contents ( TCVN 11823:2017) Comments and No. Recommendations for Climate Adaptation 11.7.3.6 (*) Erosion Erosion Pile foundation must The effect of scour should be considered when selecting the be designed to withstand the pile depth and nominal pile resistance when driving. The pile impact of drifting during the foundation shall be designed so that the deep burial of the flood season along with other pile after scouring with the design scour value ensures the forces acting on the foundation. required compressive strength and nominal lateral resistance. Requires relevant Vietnam climate Pile foundations must be designed to withstand the impact of change data input. drifting during the flood season along with other forces acting on the foundation. PART 12 TCVN 11823-12:2017 Highway bridge design specification – Part 12: Buried structures and tunnel liners 12.6.5 (*) Erosion Erosion requirements design The inclusion structure shall be designed in such a way that the inclusion structure so that no structural part will cause displacement due to erosion. no structural part will cause When a risk of erosion is anticipated, the flange wall should displacement due to erosion and be stretched long enough to protect the structural part of the hence requires relevant Vietnam soil surrounding the structure. For structures located on easily climate change data input. eroded sediments, it is necessary to use retaining walls placed deep below the maximum possible erosion depth or paving the bed. The foundation of the structure must be placed at least 600mm below the maximum expected erosion depth. 12.6.8 (*) Treatment of culvert header Requirement on structure to 6.8.1 General protect the toe roof of the culvert Special attention must be paid to the structure to protect the at the top of the culvert, where toe roof of the culvert at the top of the culvert, where there is there is standing water or possible standing water or possible erosion or a push to lift the top of erosion or a push to lift the top the culvert. of the culvert . Requires relevant Vietnam climate change data input. PART 14 TCVN 11823-14:2017 Highway bridge design specification – Part 14: Joints and bearings 14.4.1 (*) General Consider the above in terms of The selection and arrangement of expansion joints and temperature changes bearings shall take into account deformations due to temperature and other time-dependent causes and shall be appropriate to the specific function of the bridge. 14.4.2 (*) DESIGN REQUIREMENTS It is proposed in the future to The minimum thermal displacements shall be calculated from have research on temperature the extreme temperatures specified in Clause 11.2, Part 3 of extremes in the design of bridges this standard and the expected installation temperature. The to adapt to climate change. design loads shall be based on the load combinations and load factors specified in Part 3 of this standard. 14.5.1.4(*) Material The requirements of the joint Materials must be selected to ensure that they are elastically, materials must be selected to thermally and chemically compatible. Where strength ensure that they are elastically, differences exist, material face-to-face connections must be thermally and chemically constructed to provide fully functional systems. compatible Requires relevant Materials, other than plastics, should have a service life of not Vietnam climate change data less than 100 years. Plastics for expansion joint sealants and input. chutes should have a service life of not less than 25 years. Expansion joints subjected to traffic loads require a non-slip surface treatment and all parts must be resistant to abrasion and vehicular impact. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 93 ANNEX D Technical Issues from Key Informant Interview Interviewer: Ms. Tran Thi Kim Dang - NDC - Climate Adaptation team member Interviewee: Mr. Doan Duc Cuong - Hydrological Expert - TEDI Senior Advisor World Bank Support Team Final Report Nov 2021 E.1 List of documents provided by Mr. Doan Duc Cuong and the summary Ord. Documents Summary 1 Hydrological Analysis report for Ho The report includes hydrological calculation and analysis for Kien Chi Minh road, section Kien Binh – Binh – My An section of Ho Chi Minh road using VRSAP software My An (Vietnam River Systems and Plains). Results are flood distribution map (in area of the section) and proposed flooding control. 2 Assessment of flood drainage when The report provides hydrological calculation and analysis to upgrading National Highway 1A in assess flood drainage in basins of Tra Bong in Quang Ngai typical river basins – Hydrological province; Vu Gia – Thu Bon river in Quang Nam & Da Nang using Calculation and Analysis report. MIKE software. Results are flooding situation includes number of flooding section, the length of roads under flood, flood water level and flooding hours, the water velocity and flow discharge. 3 North – South Eastern Expressway The report provides hydrological analysis using MIKE software (2017-2020), section of NH 45 – Nghi to assess flood situation corresponds 9 scenarios of combination Son – Hydrological Analysis Report of scope of work and designed flood frequency. Expressway and drainage structures on the design alternative and North-South existing railway were incorporated in the hydrological analysis to assess flooding condition 4 Selection of Road Slope Protection The paper by Doan Duc Cuong introduces and summarizes Measures contents of “Guideline of Road Slope Protection Works” from Nepal for lessons to be learnt in Vietnam. Matrix of landslide features road slope protection measures is provided for possible application 5 Lessons of hydrological survey and The paper by Doan Duc Cuong provides experiences and lessons hydraulic calculation from NH1 for hydrological survey and hydraulic calculation from NH1 project implementation for North – project implementation feasibly to be apply for North – South South Expressway (Ha Noi – Can Tho) Expressway (Ha Noi – Can Tho) project project Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 95 E.2 Technical issues for discussion/ questions for key informant interview 1. Flooding flow characteristics in the regions of Vietnam and climate change impacts 2. Influence of existing key routes of Ho Chi Minh road, National Highway 1, North-South railway on flooding flow variation and floods distribution 3. Lessons to be learnt for road network planning in general and for the North-South routes planning of Vietnam such as North-South expressway and further as North-South high-speed railway, coastal roads. 4. Regarding the design of sea dyke combined with road and/or coastal road system, how the coastal road system could be assessed integrated with other existing and planning systems mentioned above (HCM road, national highway 1, North – South railway, high-speed railway; North-South expressway) as key factors which make changes of flood distribution, flooding drainage. 5. What is effective method to integrate climate change condition in road network planning and road work solutions? 6. Recommendations could be for road network planning in general and particularly in terms of road drainage system, hydrological survey and hydraulic analysis of drainage works? 7. What are the difficulties (for survey and design) in using the design standards (previous and current) related to hydrology and hydraulic calculation of drainage structures? Risks that cannot be controlled in the survey and design works currently when using the current design standards. 8. There have been some improvements in the professional standard for hydrologic survey, what should be added and/or improved according to the expert’s experience? 9. Discuss on inadequacies in survey work for hydrological design in the road projects in Vietnam and solutions. 10. An expert’s point of view in separating two types of documents: standards (which provide requirements and are mandatory); and guidelines (which provide how-to and/ or recommendation or suggestion), which are both legal documents could be applied for Vietnamese standards system? 11. Are the current handbooks, manuals and/or guidance for hydraulic calculation of bridge, culverts, and spillway sufficiently and appropriately for designers to perform the designs? For big bridges, is the hydrological calculation of bridge works different from previous methods (methods from in the 80s follows Russian standard)? Is it necessary for an updated or new handbook of hydrologic survey and hydraulic calculation and analysis for drainage structure design? 96 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution E.2 Photographs of the Seminar in Road & Highway Dep. of UTC based on the key informant interview Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 97 ANNEX E Working Papers by Team Members World Bank Support Team Final Report Nov 2021 WORKING PAPER 1 CLIMATE AND THE ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEM IN VIETNAM Author: Tran Thi Kim Dang 1. How road infrastructure system in Vietnam has been impacted by climate change? According to the National Plan1: the annual average temperature of the country has increased by about 0.62°C over the past 50 years; Sea level increased by about 3.34 mm/year in the period 1993 - 2014; Natural disasters increase in both intensity and frequency. RCP8.5 and RCP6.5 scenario is proposed to apply in transportation infrastructure planning and design based on the infrastructure scale. According to the Climate Change Scenario 2016 issued by Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment and follows the RCP8.5, to the end of 21th century: the annual average maximum temperature increases from 3.0 to 4.8 0C depends on regions; Annual rainfall tends to increase with the highest increase could be over 20% in most of the North, Central Region, part of the South and Central Highlands; and sea level is increasing results in, loss of coastal protection forests, gradually narrowing agricultural land areas, saline intrusion, flooding and flood tide. In the process of planning, designing, constructing, and exploiting road transport infrastructure, natural and climate conditions such as temperature, precipitation, sea water level, water flow velocity, could be taken as input data for hydrological and structural analysis for stability and sustainability of designed roads and structures. Consequences of climate change are serious for on-going operation of the roads and structures. The notable potential impacts include: (i) More frequent/severe flooding interrupts traffic, especially at the underground tunnels and low-lying infrastructure, or requires effective drainage and pumping, due to more intense precipitation, sea level rise, and storm surge. (ii) Increased numbers and magnitude of storm surges and/or relative sea level rise potentially shorten infrastructure life. (iii) Increased thermal expansion of paved surfaces, potentially causing degradation and reduced service life, due to higher temperatures and increased duration of heat waves. (iv) Higher maintenance/construction costs for roads and bridges, due to increased temperatures, or exposure to storm surge. (v) Asphalt degradation and shorter replacement cycles; leading to limited access, congestion, and higher costs, due to higher temperatures. (vi) Culvert and drainage infrastructure damage, due to changes in precipitation intensity (vii) Decreased driver/operator performance and decision-making skills, due to driver fatigue as a result of adverse weather. (viii) Increased risk of vehicle crashes in severe weather. (ix) System downtime, derailments, and slower travel times, due to rail buckling during extremely hot days. (x) Restricted access to local economies and public transportation. 1 The National Plan for Climate Change Adaptation - Period 2021-2030, Vision to 2050 of Vietnam government. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 99 Typical and detailed climate impacts on the road transportation structures are follows: i) Increased precipitation Increased precipitation and critical rainy is the most important factor of climate change in Vietnam. The annual rainfall as reported in the National Plan for Climate Change Adaptation is over 20% and the critical rainy is much more serious in some figures from typical rain measuring stations in central region. Critically heavy rains over large areas with severe loss of vegetation, especially when combined with the discharge of hydroelectric power plants, have caused severe flooding. Drains, culverts and flows below bridges are blocked due to mud, soil, rocks, garbage, drifting trees. Flash flood washes out road segments or causes land sliding and/or muddy flowing. Road pavement are damaged seriously after flooding due to surface erosion, loss of surface pavement, and saturated pavement materials and subgrade. ii) Increased storms/disasters Hurricane often cause heavy rain and so is the impact of landslides and flash food in the mountainous areas and flooding in flat areas which have been presented in the previous section. Unusual wind patterns and intensity may cause damage to other technical infrastructure of the road such as signs, street lights, trees; affecting bridge works (mainly cable-stayed bridges) and causing traffic insecurity. In general, the impacts of natural disasters of storm mainly cause losses to the road and road structures and road furniture facilities. The most serious impact of critical storms or disaster is flood in lowland and flash flood in mountainous areas. Changing of the storm frequency and intensity brings critical conditions to road infrastructure which has not and hardly incorporated in road works design, construction and maintenance process. iii) Increased temperature Increasing daily temperature, number of continuous hot days and average ambient temperature causes many technical issues and damage to pavement and road structures. Typical damages of road pavement in hot weather is wheel rutting. Shorten pavement life is a serious technical issue due to binder aging of asphalt pavement and high thermal stresses occurred in concrete pavement slab. iv) Sea-level rise impacts and hazards Sea-level rising impacts at different features in regions of Vietnam. While the impact seems light in the North due to wide branching river system it is more serious in the central due to special terrain condition of short flowing distance and very steep slope when combined with tidal flow to reduce flowing capacity of drainage structures. The most serious impacts are in the low-land Mekong delta in the South (where the sea-level rising combined with heavy rain and tidal flow result to more serious flooding. Data of water level in major rivers in Mekong delta show continuously critical increase due to tidal flow. Maximum water level in Can Tho gauging station is only 1,54m in 1977 increased up to 2,23m in 2018, 2,25m in 2019 and 2,18m in 2020 (It is very similar increasing trend of water level in the major rivers of Mekong delta system 100 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution 2. How is existing road infrastructure system in Vietnam challenging to climate change? Transport infrastructure system is damaged seriously after floods and critical storms. Landslides destroy or close road, and flash flood sweep away bridges and culverts. Flooding over roads over a long time soften pavement materials leading to raveling and washed out. Effective measures for a climate resilient transport infrastructure system has not been approached practically. It is a fact that inappropriate and/or insufficient solutions of road network planning, designing, and building make the impacts of climate change more critical. Key informant interview has been mobilized unofficially with a hydrological expert from TEDI (Transport Engineering Design Institute) under seminar and followed by discussion. Technical issues and questions were raised during the interview to focus on how the existing road infrastructure in Vietnam is challenged by climate change are summarized as follows. i) Climate conditions included climate change has serious impacts on transport infrastructure and impact level conversely are influenced by the transport infrastructure. The road infrastructure system and road works therefore could be planned, designed, and built by the way to make the impacts less. Inter-actions impact analysis between the climate change conditions and the infrastructure is necessary for decision making An example describes water level along Thu Bon river basin from upstream to the see which is impacted by existing transport infrastructure includes NH 14B, Thong Nhat railway, NH 1A and the planned North – South expressway. The expressway has a much larger bridge aperture of 3058m compared with 2067m than the one on Thong Nhat railway results to lower overflow. It could be found that Thong Nhat railway causes severe flooding upstream. The flooding would be different in case of other routes as in the long-term transport planning of high-speed railway and coastal road/ sea dyke and depends on the design option. ii) Hydrological modelling and hydraulic analysis can be used to present clearly existence of inter- impaction of climate change and transport infrastructure system corresponding to strategic planning or design scenario to support decision making Hydrological modelling (NAM model) and hydraulic analysis tool (MIKE 11) for flood drainage of Tra Bong river basin in Quang Ngai province and Vu Gia – Thu Bon river basin in Quang Nam province for NH1 upgrade project. The analysis results help technical appraisal for feasibility study and design alternative selection. North – South Eastern Expressway (2017-2020), NH45 - Nghi Son section feasibility study covers 9 scenarios of combination of designed solution and designed flood frequency were used for technical appraisal. Existing infrastructures such as dyke sections and road, the expressway and designed drainage structures on the route were incorporated in the hydraulic analysis to assess flooding condition of Yen river in Thanh Hoa province. The results are maximum water level which were used for making decision of technical design solution which is climate adaptation. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 101 iii) Hydrological survey and hydraulic analysis for road design in many projects are still insufficient. Inadequacy and shortcomings are reviewed and discussed for lessons to be learnt Inadequacy of hydrological survey for designing flood-bypass road in Ai Nghia town of Quang Nam province results to serious damages which make the road unfunctional during flood. The shortcomings of surveying work for hydraulic calculation and analysis are at: - Preparation prior surveying works to collect meteorological and hydrological data from available documents for historical flood levels. - Poor hydrological investigation results to incorrect flooding appearance year and inaccurate hydraulic calculation and analysis - Inappropriate selection of location for hydrological investigation results to unreliable data and confusing historical flood levels - Hydrological survey as in current standard required only historical flooding water level, but not: causes of the flood and flood evolution; characteristic of flooding flow with falling rocks, fallen trees or mud; influence if any of tidal flow; erosion at upstream and downstream; overflow at downstream which could make hydraulic analysis short-sighted. - Hydrological survey along flooded road section as in current standard also required only flooded water level, but not: flooding duration and traffic interruption duration; flood depth; location and direction of overflowing and subjectively estimated overflow of swift-flowing, medium or calm flowing compared with erosion and/or landslide occurrence. - There is not specific guidance for hydrological survey at typical terrain, for example of mountainous to require flow characteristic with rolling rocks and mud, or of flat at river mouth to require tidal flow direction and frequency. - Hydrographic engineer and functional tasks of surveying to collect necessary data for hydrological modelling and hydraulic calculation and analysis, providing the analyses and controlling reliability of the collected data rarely are required as key and separated staffs in a transport project. 102 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution WORKING PAPER 2 HOW DOES EXISTING DOMESTIC LEGAL DOCUMENTS SYSTEM SUPPORT TO CLIMATE ADAPTATION DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION OF ROAD PROJECTS Author: Tran Thi Kim Dang National legal documents include standards which could support to climate adaptation has been reviewed by all team members. There are number of standards for road infrastructure design, construction and maintenance which are relevant and potentially support to climate adaptation . Flood prevention in road design is controlled at sections of roads whose foundations are regularly flooded, along rivers and streams, and at drainage works: bridges, culverts, spillways, etc. In addition to some general regulations included in the general road design standards, another key standard (TCVN 9845:2013), provides regulations for the hydraulic analysis of the drainage structures on the roads. Some articles from the standards which are relevant to hydraulic calculation and climate adaptation are extracted as follows. TABLE 1. The relevant contents in TCVN 4054:2005 and articles in TCXD 104:2007 for hydraulic analysis Road category Structures Expressway Grade I,II Grade III to VI Embankment Follows designed flood frequency of drainage structures Medium and large bridges 1 1 1 Small bridge and culvert 1 2 4 Cut-off and side drains 4 4 4 Article 9.3.8, TCVN 5729:2012 9.3.8 Design rainy frequency for hydraulic calculation of drains is 4%, and 1% for bridges and culverts. Article 13.2.2, TCXDVN 104:2007 13.2.2. The design road elevation in urban areas must be consistent with the controlled construction elevation in the formal urban plan. In case of no the formal urban plan, it can be based on the requirements specified in the current TCVN 4054 standard and consider the current conditions, nature, flood frequency, and elevations controlled by construction works. underground works and above-ground works. QCVN 07-2:2016 2.1.1. The external drainage system must conform to the approved urban drainage planning, urban planning, specialized planning on urban drainage approval and sustainability in the context of climate change. QCVN 07-4:2016 2.7.2. The design elevation of the street should follow the levels in the construction planning, urban planning to ensure convenient traffic and drainage of the adjacent residential areas. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 103 2.7.4. It is necessary to investigate for determining the maximum flood level and flooding time in storm season, for defining the highest underground water levels for cutting and embankment performance and to forecast calculated moisture content (critical moisture content) within loading impact distance, and for selecting the design option to limit impacts of moisture sources and quick drain from pavement. QCXDVN 01:2008 3.1.4. Requirement of the technical issues - It needs flooding protection for the urban areas which are along river or sea bank. - Minimum elevation of the structure foundation should be 0.3 m higher than calculated flood level for civil land and 0.5 m for industrial land relatively. - Elevation of dykes should be consistent with the irrigation planning The calculated flood level is the maximum water level occurred in the period (or flood frequency) as in Table 3.1 TABLE 3.1: Calculated flood level – maximum water level occurred in the frequency (period of years) Urban grade Special Grade I Grade II Grade III Grade IV Grade V Functional areas Central area 100 100 50 40 20 10 Industrial park, warehouse 100 100 50 40 20 10 Residential area 100 100 50 40 20 10 Green area, sport area 20 10 10 10 10 2 Rural residential area Civil structures > H maxTBnăm Public structures > H max + 0,3m 3.4.2 Rainwater drainage planning - Must be compatible with the irrigation system. - For rivers and streams flowing through residential areas, it is necessary for stabilization and protection river/ stream slope for land sliding resistance. - Drainage system should be designed in the appropriate method. - For residential areas located on hillsides and on mountains slope, it is necessary for designing the drains to collect waters from hill and mountain slope to protect the residential areas from water flows - It is necessary to provide solutions to prevent and reduce damage caused by floods. Although there is not any conflict between the road design standards on the frequency of rain and floods for the calculation of the work design, the designers still are challenged during design to ensure flood protection. In order to calculate the design to ensure flood limitation for the works, the standard TCVN 4054: 2005 stipulates the frequency of hydrological calculation of the works on the motorway, depending on the type of work and the road class. (Table 1). From the specified frequency, hydrological calculations of the flow and hydraulic calculations of the works are performed to determine the design elevation of the works: roadbeds at riverside sections, at the location of small bridges and culverts. The road elevation along the river and the flooded area must be at least 0.5m higher than the overflow water level based on the designed flood frequency and consider the height of waves hitting on road slope. The bridge elevation is calculated by the overflow water level corresponds the designed flood frequency, plus clearance and bridge grid height. The allowable height of flooded water on the spillway depends on overflow velocity on the spillway surface and designed vehicle. When designing a large bridge, if the invested historical flood level higher than the designed water level, the historical flood level must be used as the basis for calculating drainage structure size and capacity. The design standards are applied similarly to regions without referencing flood protection standards for river basin or urban areas. 104 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution TCVN 4054:2005 stipulates for the designed flood frequency should be considered from an economic, technical and environmental point of view in critical cases, as stated in the standard: “the design consultant is responsible for proposing and checking the long-term stability of the works and providing decision is under the authority of the person competent to decide on the investment”. A general requirement without specific guidance can make designer difficult to recommend the frequency of flooding for designed structures. In addition, giving responsibility of long-term stability check to the designer seems inappropriate. While TCVN 4054:2005 states: “at the road sections crossing cities or residential areas, the designed road elevation is specified following fixed-elevation in urban planning and the flood frequency to calculate the drainage works and roadbeds according to urban design standards”, there are not specific provisions in TCXDVN 104:2007 for the designed flood frequency, except the article in Table 1. It is clear that it is difficult to find a connection between the provisions of flood prevention standards. Apart from regulations for standard design implementation, Vietnamese design consultants are not provided with legal support for data collection as well as design guidelines. Standard [29] (Article 5.2.1) prescribes the calculation of the peak flood discharge corresponding to the design frequency with the maximum daily rainfall parameter corresponding to the design frequency of the representative hydro-meteorological station to the time calculation point. This standard or any other road design standard deals with regulations as well as the legal order and procedures for hydrometeorological stations to issue rainfall data series. There is also no documentation to process the series of rainfall data from different stations with different raw data characteristics, to get the maximum rainfall corresponding to the design frequency. The design standards of Vietnam provide regulations for design work, with regulations that are either general, or sometimes have specific provisions for some cases. Design standards are therefore in the form of a semi-standard (with regulations on design principles), a semi-guideline (with specific provisions for cases), but not universally enough for all cases. , cannot be effectively supported as a design guide. A general regulation such as Article 7.8.7 TCVN 4054: 2005 [25] “The slope of the embankment must be reinforced by measures suitable to local hydrological and climatic conditions to prevent erosion caused by the impact of precipitation, currents, waves and changes in inundation” is not a design guide. The design guide in this case should provide reinforcement design solutions, selection or calculation guidance for solution selection. But if such design guidance were to be included in the standard, there would be limitations to its application. The standard is highly legal, the updating process is complicated, in case there is a technical solution or new technology, there is not enough legal basis to apply until the standard is updated. Standards are highly legal, that is, hard rules cannot be broken, while guidelines can be flexibly applied to specific provisions included in the standard. Specific provisions that lack universality when included in standards can also lead to errors. For example, the specific value of horizontal slope in both standards [23] and [24] is only specified depending on the type of road surface material to ensure surface water drainage, regardless of the width. roads, not integrated with longitudinal slopes and ramp lengths, i.e. standard designs capable of generating potentially long stretches of road with surface water flowing in oblique and/or longitudinal directions cause surface erosion. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 105 The general traffic infrastructure design standards in Vietnam are not reviewed and updated to keep up with changes in policy, institutions and natural conditions, or if revised, in the same way. not suitable. TCVN 4054:2005 has been used for more than 13 years without consideration for updating, despite the newly issued Road Traffic Law (in 2008), the Road Signing Regulations (QCVN 41:2012). and QCVN 41:2016); Standard for calculation of flood flow characteristics TCVN 9845: 2013 [29], updated from standard 22TCN 220-95 [30], that is, after 18 years, the 2013 version has also been 5 years old and has not had any regulations related to climate change and sea level rise. Calculation of flood flow characteristics according to standard TCVN 9845:2013, which is a revised standard from 22TCN 220:95 with many significant positive changes: - There are instructions for calculating and determining the design flood peak discharge according to the limiting intensity formula: according to the calculation order, clearly with the cases with hydrological stations and without hydrological stations, with tables of numbers. Supporting data, especially the rain curve coordinate table of the shower zones of Vietnam are available. - Including the calculation of the construction aperture taking into account the water storage in front of the work, with instructions for calculating the total design flood volume, instructions for constructing the flood path, and calculating the time to flood the precious crop area. - Detailed requirements for the calculation steps, not only at determining the construction aperture and the height of the water rise in front of the building as before, dotted the water level as the basis for the longitudinal profile design, but also required assessment of the time of flooding in precious crops, checking the possibility of overflowing in the lowlands and the demarcation points of the longitudinal profile, measures to strengthen the flow at the outlet and entrance to the work. - Requires calculation of design flood peak discharge according to continuous rain data up to the time of design and a list of meteorological stations nationwide. Although the standard is very innovative and has improved fundamentally, it is not yet synchronized, from the collection of data from the meteorological station (forms, data), to the processing to get the calculation parameters (here is the amount of data collected from the meteorological station). maximum daily rainfall corresponding to the design flood frequency; or there is a (legal) obligation to provide this parameter directly (for free) to meteorological stations and the procedure for providing it. , although it has added computational support with more detailed steps, it is still difficult for designers, especially at the local level, to implement. Infrastructure works such as roads, reservoirs, canals, or residential areas, industrial parks, etc., after being designed and built, will change the mechanism of flood transmission and distribution in the basin, as a road crossing over the flood route especially in case it is not provided with adequate drainage facilities. A powerful design calculation tool that considers the mutual influence between the basin topography, capable of updating information on the integrated infrastructure system will result in flood protection and natural disaster response design calculations. good ear, effectively supporting the goal of better rebuilding of reconstruction programs. The results from a case study using hydro-morphological analysis tools of the GIS integrated area [33] show that: A road construction blocks a flood outlet, the elevation of this road project changes. change, increase or decrease by 1.0 m, changing flood distribution and floodplain; changing the longitudinal profile of 106 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution the road works not only changes the position of flooded sections on the main road, but also changes the flood distribution line and flood position in the area; Inundation levels in different areas are influenced by location and route elevation, and change over time depending on rainfall intensity and duration. With this tool, one can analyze the risks to people and vehicles during flooding and the solution can be controlled by analyzing the area morphology and hydro-meteorological data. The impacts of climate change have been distorting the rainfall regime and flow patterns in the region, the number and intensity of tropical storms are especially increased and irregular, causing hydrological changes in the flows. Central region becomes more complicated. Meanwhile, at present, Vietnam does not have a specific and legal supporting technical tool in calculating the anti-flood design. Moreover, there is still a lack of necessary updates to standards or guidelines in planning, design, management and operation of transport and irrigation infrastructure works. For the current set of bridge design standards TCVN 11823:2017 including 12 component standards, through reviewing and reviewing component standards, the expert team found that the above set of standards inherits the standard 22 TCN 272 -05, update the revised versions of ASSHTO. From a review, there are more than 50 articles referring to factors related to climate change distributed in 12 component within the set of bridge design standards. Issues related to the influence of environmental conditions during the design process such as; parameters of wind, temperature, precipitation. and also consider problems of flood, erosion, drainage, displacement deformation of the structure or structural parts due to displacement. The requirements for basic materials closely follow the requirements at the time of standard development and promulgation (from 2017 and earlier). The reference standards have not been updated for issues such as (1) the navigable water level according to the riverway standard TCVN 5664 - 2009; (2) Parameters of temperature extremes; (3) Calculation of rainfall and drainage; (4) Wind zoning (5) Climate extremes affected by climate change. Regarding the roadmap to consider and adjust design standards to adapt to climate change: the recommendation is: • In the future, there should be studies to update ASSHTO standards on bridge design; • Supplementary studies on building factors affected by climate change to bridge design such as coordinating with relevant ministries to develop maps on wind distribution, rainfall distribution, and temperature distribution; • Develop maps of areas at risk of flooding, areas at risk of landslides and flash floods that can directly affect the design of bridge works. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 107 WORKING PAPER 3 STRATEGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CC AND LESSONS TO STRENGTHEN THE DOMESTIC SYSTEM Author: Dr. Jasper R Cook, Tran Thi Kim Dang, Bui Ngoc Hung, Ly Hai Bang, Tran Viet Hung, Nguyen Kim Thanh, Bui Van Dai Some suggestions: - Plan for carrying out a survey of vulnerable assets; - Assess the risk arising from climate change; - Adjust guidelines for planning and design of adaptation measures and for risk assessment; - Develop strategies for improving the knowledge base: promoting research, adapting results from climate research for practical application; - Economic aspects: estimate the costs and benefits of actions (compared to the costs of no action) and relating the investments to risk level; - Develop strategies for improving communication to road users, both before and after weather related events; - Ensure a clear and well-communicated role for the National Road Administrations (NRAs) in securing a functional transport system. This could imply formulating strategy for the NRAs on a regional basis; ( - Develop strategies for implementation: formulating action plans, encouraging political effort /legislation. TABLE 3.1. Strategy Details Principle climate Implications for infrastructure Remedial measures change risks Drought and effect of Affect the durability of road Stiffer binders could be recommended in some high temperatures pavements by softening bitumen regions. mixtures, leading to more rutting. Flooding and erosion Risk to embankments leading to Considering run-off and necessary drainage from increased unevenness in the road surfaces. capacity by the use of more conservative return precipitation and/or periods (for coping with the lack of data on storm events. precipitation, runoff ), or increasing the design capacity by an additional climate factor. Future design criteria should also focus on more robust foundation types, requirements for foundation depth, and erosion control. Have a frequent maintenance procedure along with risk and susceptibility analyses covering bridges, culverts, and other drainage structures. 108 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Principle climate Implications for infrastructure Remedial measures change risks Scour of bridges due to The shrink in expansion joints Retention ponds and sedimentation basins increase precipitation. from some road bridges are a good protective measure if of adequate leading to bridge damage from dimensions and functionally sited. A holistic temperature increases. approach to drainage design is needed, involving all water management parties as early in the planning process as possible. Sea level rise Coastal erosion, flooding, and In short term, building higher dykes. A long-term wave splash-over, which may solution requires the involvement of river valley result in damage and traffic management further inland. Developed a web- disruptions. Road embankments based tool that provides assistance in land-use and bridge foundations may planning for coastal areas with respect to the be exposed to more strain and projected sea-level rise in the future. erosion. Moisture fluctuation Bridge failures could lead to Improved drainage, appropriate alignment levels in road embankments significant disruption to services above flood levels. from wetter winters and and the need for emergency drier summers. personnel Wind speeds and Wind is also a key risk on roadside Improved emergency plans. Revised designs frequencies trees/vegetation, blocking roads and can be dangerous for high sided vehicles, especially on high roads and bridges. Utilize available climate change data effectively while taking into account local uncertainties: it is a vitally important step in undertaking scientific analysis of climate data for a better planning decisions due to the difference between local climate characteristics (different between regions). Evaluate vulnerabilities and identify vulnerable groups, sectors, sites: in the road network planning, it is the sectors, infrastructure services, housing or materials that would be at high risk by climate impacts. Engage multiple stakeholders: in any plan, it is valuable and necessary to have the involvement of a broad range of stakeholders from local sector interests (local people), government and scientists. In road network planning, while specialized scientific knowledge is needed to interpret climate data, future projections and impact estimates. This kind of assessment requires diverse expertise including local knowledge (for example, behaviour of local streams under flood conditions). Government plans need to also take account of autonomous adaptation measures undertaken by local residents and private sector businesses, which can best be understood through their engagement in the planning process. Carry out the risk assessments which considers both the likelihood of a future event and the losses, damages, vulnerability. Local government staff lead and coordinate planning, monitoring and implementation: to build their capacity in understanding and managing issues as well as their commitment to implementing proposed measures. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 109 Design and construction Drainage and culverts: Design standards should be adapted to the demands of climate change. Maintenance of existing drainage structures should be carried out with respect to future needs, and if possible as a part of planned regular replacement of old systems. Bridge design: should have good erosion protection and robust foundations in considering design levels for flood. Landslide protection: develop the prediction models and risk assessment methods to prevent landslide at optimization level. Furthermore, design guidelines for landslide protection should be adapted to changed conditions wherever necessary, and the risk of new landslide types (such as debris flow and slush avalanches) assessed. Models for identifying priorities should be developed and adapted to climate change. Road structure and pavements: stiffer binders (but environmentally safe) to protect against increasing temperatures; asphalt design that is resilient to saline intrusion; hydrophobic pavements that reduce slipperiness in areas where the temperature is around 0°C, nights are cold, and days warm, e.g. in mountain areas; and hydrophobic structure treatment, which can keep the water away from the structure. Environment protection: (i) The design and placement of sedimentation basins should be undertaken in such a way that they can also be used for the retention of flood water. (ii) The road should be recognized as a barrier for waterways, but also for wildlife. Ensuring corridors for wildlife in new conditions in a future climate is an important part of the design. (iii) Due to better conditions for vegetation growth, maintenance of vegetation may require more attention. The aim is to ensure good visibility. Maintenance problems can be reduced by adequate planning. Some principles when making decisions concerning adaptation measures: It is the most important to take into account the uncertainty of climate parameters and also climate projections. These considerations will help in deciding what should be done first, what can wait, and what should wait: The design life of a new structure (or the remaining design life of an existing structure being assessed) must be seen in relation to the time aspect of climate change. It is not necessary to take into account climate aspects that will not be fully developed during the service life of a structure. The time aspect should always be seen in relation to the projected development in the most detrimental climate parameter: e.g. precipitation intensity for drainage capacity, sea level rise for planning of sub-sea tunnels 110 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution FIGURE 3.1. Service life, climate change evolution, and short-term and long-term adaptation measures for maintaining the acceptable risk level Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 111 WORKING PAPER 4 VIETNAM-JAPAN SATREPS PROJECT “DEVELOPMENT OF LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT TECHNOLOGY ALONG TRANSPORT ARTERIES IN VIETNAM”AND ITS IMPACT TO THE VIETNAMESE SOCIETY Author Dinh Van Tien, Nguyen Kim Thanh An ODA Project “Development of landslide risk along transport arteries in Vietnam (ICA/JST-ITST, 2011-2016)” has been taken as the basis for this paper.. The short-term project objective is landslide risk assessment technology to reduce on transport arteries developed by joint research based on experimental technology from Japan. The long- term objectives is embedment of development of landslide risk assessment technology and early warning systems for transport arteries and mountainous resident areas in Vietnam. The contents of project include (1) Development of Landslide Risk Assessment Technology and Education; (2) Wide‐area Landslide Mapping and Landslide Risk Identification; (3) Soil Testing – Computer Simulation of Landslide Initiation and Motion and (4) Landslide Monitoring and Development of Early Warning System. The following summarizes the research outputs relevant to discussion on climate change impact: Development of Landslide Risk Assessment Technology and Education Based on the technological transfer from Japan to Vietnam, Vietnamese researchers have drafted integrated guidelines for landslide risk assessment in the 5 parts with 33 guidelines (GL), which cover on (1) Mapping and Site Prediction, (2) Material Tests,(3) Monitoring,(4) Landslide flume experiment and (5) Software application. Those guidelines will be first step for strategy of national standard development for landslide risk assessment in Vietnam. (Sassa, Project report 2016). When they will be the national standard, they will contribute to national strategy for natural disaster prevention, response and mitigation. Mapping group has investigated slopes along Ho Chi Minh Route (HCM) between Khan Duc to Prau and the Hai Van pass land mass area. During the investigation landslide position, type of movement, micro features, causative factors were recorded as basic data. National No.7 highway was the additional target for application of landslide inventory by air‐photo interpretation landslide investigation data and discussion, a landslide type classification in consideration of fuzzy nature and geological mechanisms of landslide generation in center of Vietnam were studied and published. Wide‐area Landslide Mapping and Landslide Risk Identification After 5 years the work group has established six sheets of landslide inventory map and risk assessment map for HCM and 60 km long detail scale landslide distribution map (scale 1:12000); 112 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution A landslide inventory map for Hai Van area for designation of landslide monitoring site; a landslide susceptibility for road corridors a long HCM route (Dak Rong to Kham Duc section, scale 1: 250.000). In addition, a LS inventory map for around 10 km along National No.7 highway (Muong Xen to Tam Quang section) was established as Vietnamese application with advice from Japanese experts. The combination of the landslide risk assessment map and the landslide susceptibility map will be made an effective tool for prevention and mitigation of landslide Soil Testing – Computer Simulation of Landslide Initiation and Motion A testing group developed a high‐stress undrained dynamic loading ring shear apparatus (ICL‐2) which can be applied to deep landslides (more than 100m deep). The methodology and testing from this apparatus is useful for understanding the deep-seated landslide moving mechanism. The developed ring shear apparatus was revised in 2014‐2015 based on the experiences of testing by Vietnamese short‐term and long‐term trainees. The revised apparatus was installed in ITST in June 2015 and now it is available for testing. (Lam.H.Q, project report 2016) Adding the function simulating tsunami generated by landslides as one of target of JST research was completed to integrate the tsunami simulation code developed by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and the landslide simulation code (LS‐RAPID). This function was applied to assess tsunami level possibly triggered by a large‐scale rapid landslide from the Hai Van slope. However, Hai Van case is just the first experiment for risk forecast and evaluation. The application of ICL‐2 apparatus and LS‐RAPID will be very powerful tool for buildup landslide hazard map. And it will directly contribute for Vietnamese’s Government strategy of Developing science and technologies related to natural disaster prevention, response and mitigation Landslide Monitoring and Development of Early Warning System Hai Van landslide was selected as target area for monitoring and early warning. The installation equipment for monitoring, topographic and geology survey had been done. Rainfall and slope deformation monitoring of Hai Van slope was started in May 2013 and number of slope deformation records during heavy rainfalls have been monitored from September 2013 to now. An Installation of the data transferring and displaying system was finished in Hai Van and the project office in ITST, Hanoi in March 2016. This monitoring system could be able to allow monitoring real‐time. The Hai Van landslide monitoring site is the modernist and biggest monitoring site in Vietnam up to now and it should be maintained not only for its functions but also remained as site training for Vietnamese researchers as well as the community. The achievement of The Technical assistance Project “Development of Landslide Risk Assessment Technology along Transport Arteries of Vietnam” is evaluated as successful. It contributes directly for natural disaster prevention including climate change impact, response and mitigation of Government Strategy under effort to “proactively prevent natural disasters”. On socio‐economic side, the landslide risk assessment technology, including zoning of areas at landslide risk, monitoring of sliding block movement and simulation of the landslide formation and development, is a key platform in the landslide risk assessment and management system. This Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 113 technology is the basis for the system to predict the risk level, decide whether or not and make the reasonable control measures to minimize for the unacceptable risk level. The evaluation which supplied by the system will help the management to have full awareness on landslide risks of and make appropriate decisions, including budget distribution planning for landslide treatment before the disaster actually occurred, thus it contribute to reducing the loss of human, economic and other negative impacts on society caused by landslides. Besides the above scientific and socio‐economic significant, the development of landslide risk assessment technology, including early warning system also have great meaning for communities in large landslides risk areas. Early warning system will help people know about the risk and protect themselves before the risk occurs. After the end of the project, the Ministry of Transport assigned ITST to continue developing 33 Guideline from the project into basic standards and gradually select some standards to upgrade to Vietnamese standard 114 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution WORKING PAPER 5 - POLICIES AND PLANS Author: Dr. Jasper R Cook, Tran Thi Kim Dang, Bui Ngoc Hung, Ly Hai Bang, Tran Viet Hung, Nguyen Kim Thanh, Bui Van Dai 1. National policies and programs to respond to climate change Vietnam has issued a number of policies related to climate change response. Some of the promulgated laws have initially provided for climate change response such as Laws on Water Resources (2012), Natural Disaster Prevention and Control (2013), Environmental Protection (2020), Hydrometeorology (2015) , Forestry (2017). According to statistics (from the report of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (2020): Technical Report on the Nationally Determined Contribution of Vietnam). Up to now, the policies and documents under the Law have been approved by the Government and ministries. More than 300 important documents have been issued, including 19 documents of the Government and over 60 documents of the Prime Minister directly or indirectly related to climate change. Up to 2019, the number of policy actions on climate change adaptation that have been developed is 115 policy actions. One of the important bases for the development of policies and laws on climate change adaptation is the Climate Change and Sea level rise scenario for Vietnam, updated in 2016. Synthesize a list of Decrees, circulars, standards, guidelines, etc. related to road traffic planning with a sustainable orientation with climate conditions and/or considering climate change conditions - Decree No. 37/2019/ND-CP dated May 7, 2019 of the Government detailing a number of articles of the Planning Law - Decree No. 66/2014/ND-CP dated July 14, 2014 detailing and guiding the implementation of a number of articles of the Law on Natural Disaster Prevention and Control - Directive No. 30/CT-TTg dated July 27, 2020 of the Prime Minister on Tasks, solutions, and implementation of concurrent formulation of master plans for the period 2021-2030, with a vision to 2050 - Directive No. 13/CT-TTg dated May 20, 2019 of the Prime Minister on Sustainable Development - Resolution No. 120-NQ/CP dated November 17, 2017 of the Government on sustainable development of the Mekong Delta to adapt to climate change - Decision 1719/QD-TTg dated October 4, 2011 of the Prime Minister approving the criteria for evaluating priority projects under the Support Program to Respond to Climate Change (SP- RCC) - Decision No. 355/QD-TTg dated February 25, 2013 of the Prime Minister approving the adjustment of the development strategy of Vietnam’s transport to 2020, with a vision to 2030. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 115 - Decision No. 1570/QD-TTg dated September 6, 2013 of the Prime Minister approving the Strategy for exploitation and sustainable use of natural resources and protection of the marine environment until 2020, with a vision to 2030. - Decision No. 681/QD-TTg dated June 4, 2019 of the Prime Minister on promulgating a roadmap for the implementation of Vietnam’s sustainable development goals up to 2030. - Decision No. 274/QD-TTg dated February 18, 2020 of the Prime Minister approving the task of making environmental protection planning for the period of 2021 - 2030, with a vision to 2050. - Decision No. 1055/QD-TTg dated July 20, 2020 of the Prime Minister on promulgating the National Plan to adapt to climate change for the period 2021-2030, with a vision to 2050 - Decision No. 1980/QD-TTg dated October 17, 2016 of the Prime Minister on the national set of criteria for new rural communes for the period 2016-2020 - Decision No. 995/QD-TTg dated August 9, 2018 of the Prime Minister on assigning tasks to ministries to organize the formulation of national sector planning for the period 2021 - 2030, with a vision to 2050. Road network planning is one of five specialized master plans organized by the Ministry of Transport. - Decision No. 2053/QD-TTg dated November 23, 2015 of the Prime Minister approving adjustments to the master plan on transportation development in the northern key economic region to 2020 and orientation to 2030. - Decision No. 2054/QD-TTg dated November 23, 2015 of the Prime Minister approving adjustments to the master plan on transportation development in the central key economic region to 2020 and orientation to 2030. - Decision No. 2055/QD-TTg dated November 23, 2015 of the Prime Minister approving the adjustment of the master plan on transportation development in the southern key economic region to 2020 and orientation to 2030. - Decision No. 45/QD-Ttg dated January 10, 2020 of the Prime Minister on Environmental Protection is specified in the decision approving the task of making the National Road Network Master Plan for the period of 2021-2030 and vision to 2050. - Decision No. 438/QD-TTg dated March 25, 2021 approving the Project “Development of Vietnamese Cities to respond to Climate Change in the 2021-2030 period”. Review the National Plan to adapt to climate change for the period 2021-2030, with a vision to 2050 and road map for transport sector The Prime Minister issued Decision No. 1055/QD-TTg on Promulgating National Climate Change Adaptation Plan for 2021 - 2030 period with a vision by 2050. The Promulgating National Climate Change Adaptation Plan aims to reduce vulnerability and risk to the impacts of climate change through strengthening resilience, adaptive capacity of communities, economic components and ecosystems; promote the integration of climate change adaptation into the strategic and planning system. 116 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution 2. Tasks and solutions Accordingly, in the period 2021 - 2030, with a vision to 2050, the Plan identifies 3 groups of tasks and specific solutions to address the above-mentioned goals, including: 1. Improve the effectiveness of climate change adaptation through intensifying the state management of climate change, including climate change adaptation contents, and promoting the integration of climate change adaptation contents into relevant strategies and planning The climate change adaptation has been implemented under the framework of the national strategy for climate change, the national action plan for response to climate change, action plans of ministries, central agencies and local governments, climate change response target programs, schemes/ projects of ministries, central agencies, regional and local governments, and international cooperation projects. Intensifying the state management of climate change, revising climate change-related policies, strategies and planning, and promoting the integration of climate change adaptation contents into relevant strategies and planning are necessary to improve the effectiveness of climate change adaptation. Specific tasks and solutions: a) Develop and revise the national legal framework for climate change. Perform activities and duties to serve the formulation of the Law on climate change based on full compliance with regulations of the Law on promulgation of legislative documents. b) Review, update and formulate new socioeconomic development planning and sectoral development planning based on climate change scenarios and assessment of climate change impacts, especially those on industrial sectors/regions that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. c) Promote the integration of climate change adaptation into relevant strategies and planning through formulating and promulgating guidelines for such integration; assess the integration of climate change adaptation into relevant strategies and planning; combine climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. d) Carry out observation and assessment in order to enhance the effectiveness of climate change adaptation, including the promulgation of criteria for assessment of climate risks, determination of climate change response projects/tasks, and assessment of effectiveness of climate change adaptation actions. On such grounds, a system for observation and assessment of climate change adaptation actions will be developed and operated. e) Promote adaptation actions which will bring co-benefits for disaster management, reduction of the risks of climate change and social, economic and environmental efficiency; periodically update climate change scenarios according to reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); establish and operate the national climate change database and support tools for management and forming of climate change policies; develop mechanisms/ policies, and mobilize and allocate financial resources, for encouraging and attracting investments in climate change adaptation actions. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 117 g) Intensify international cooperation and fulfill duties of a signatory of UNFCCC, including: provide support for domestic authorities for capacity-building in order to be recognized by the Green Climate Fund, the Adaptation Fund and other funds; prepare and periodically update the National report on climate change adaptation to the UNFCCC. Monitor and assess the impacts of climate change adaptation actions on the world on Vietnam, and determine solutions for minimizing any adverse impacts and taking advantage of such impacts to achieve socioeconomic development objectives. 2. Improve the resilience and adaptation capacity of communities, economic sectors and ecosystems through making investments in adaptation actions, science and technology, and increasing public awareness to be ready to adapt to climate change This group of tasks can be fulfilled through improving natural systems and infrastructure facilities of industrial sectors/fields, and investing in, performing and enlarging adaptation actions and models. Investment projects on construction and improvement of natural systems and infrastructure facilities must ensure a systematic, interdisciplinary, inter-regional approach with key contents and reasonable roadmap. Continue to communicate and step up activities for increasing the public awareness of climate change adaptation. Specific tasks and solutions: a) Improve infrastructure facilities for strengthening capacity of industrial sectors/fields to adapt to climate change: - Effectively manage water resources; supervise and protect water resources; improve the water storage capacity and effective use of water under climate change conditions, especially in regions threatened by droughts or water scarcity or adversely affected by saltwater intrusion; - Develop and scale up intercropping models which are suitable for drought or saltwater intrusion conditions, and cultivation and animal breeding models which are adaptable to climate change. Perform climate change adaptation actions in agricultural sector; enhance effectiveness of use of agricultural land; arrange crop structure and types of plants that are suitable for the comparative advantage and market in each region; prevent and control diseases and pests for plants and animals (including aquatic animals); develop and scale up plant varieties and animal breeds; intensify highly effective fishing and aquaculture methods; improve methods, techniques and infrastructure facilities in aquaculture sector; - Upgrade and improve traffic facilities in regions with high disaster risks and particularly vulnerable to climate change; - Improve resilience of urban infrastructure systems and concentrated residential areas, industrial parks and resettlement areas in coastal areas and islands; adopt measures for protecting urban areas from floods caused by climate change and sea level rise; develop and build houses that can withstand disasters, extreme climate events and sea level rise; apply new and advanced building technology and materials that are adaptable to climate change to construction and urban management; - Upgrade and improve infrastructure facilities for industrial, energy and commercial sectors, and industrial establishments, and concurrently adopt measures for environmental protection and 118 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution reasonable and efficient use and extraction of natural resources in regions that are particularly vulnerable to climate change; - Develop the medical and healthcare network that is capable of preventing and controlling epidemics, diseases and other diseases emerged from climate change, and ensuring environmental sanitation conditions; adopt technological and equipment solutions in medically preventing and treating diseases increased due to climate change; strengthen the system for observation and early warning of climate change impacts on human health; build and scale up models for improving resilience of communities, climate change adaptation of health branch and public health; - Maintain, preserve and upgrade infrastructure facilities and buildings of historical-cultural relics in order to improve their resilience to climate change. b) Improve adaptive capacity of natural ecosystems and biodiversity to climate change impacts through intensifying the management of ecosystems and biodiversity; intensify the restoration of natural ecosystems and protection and conservation of biodiversity from the adverse impacts of climate change and sea level rise. c) Develop and scale up ecosystem-based and community-based climate change adaptation models; intensify the participation of local communities in observation, conservation and management of biodiversity. d) Manage forest protection and improve the quality of forests through forest regeneration, restoration and enrichment; intensify the participation of communities in development of planted forests in order to improve livelihoods and employment opportunities in forestry sector. e) Increase awareness and knowledge about climate change and disasters of governments at all levels, social organizations and communities; improve capacity, empower women and promote gender equality in climate change adaptation. f ) Do scientific research and technological development, and focus on application of new and advanced technologies to climate change adaptation. 3. Reduce disaster risks and minimize damage in order to be ready to cope with disasters and extreme climate events increased due to climate change Reducing disaster risks and minimizing damage in order to be ready to cope with disasters and extreme climate events increased due to climate change require simultaneous implementation of groups of solutions related to capacity-building for forecasting and early warning disasters and extreme climate or weather events, improvement of disaster risk management system for minimizing the vulnerability and enhancing the preparedness for coping with extreme climate events, and timely and effective implementation of adaptation solutions for minimizing damage associated with the short-term, medium-term and long-term impacts of climate change in the future. Specific tasks and solutions: Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 119 a) Prepare for cope with disasters caused by climate change through intensifying the capacity for observation of climate change, meteorological and hydrological monitoring, forecasting, warning and spread of news on disasters and extreme climate events. b) Ensure the safety of hydraulic structures and disaster management structures in order to proactively cope with disasters which are increasing in both frequency and intensity. c) Improve the disaster risk management system, carry out determination, zoning and forecasting of disaster risk levels; intensify capacity and measures for managing and promoting mitigation of disaster risks, especially community-based disaster risk management, and promotion of local knowledge in disaster preparedness for decreasing the vulnerability and increasing the preparedness for coping with extreme climate or weather events. d) Minimize damage associated with the short-term, medium-term and long-term impacts of climate change through punctually and effectively implementing disaster management solutions, especially in regions which are most affected by storms, floods, inundation and landslide. dd) Prevent river erosion and coastal erosion; cope with increased droughts and saltwater intrusion; deal with losses and damage caused by climate change impacts. 3. Implementation phasing The implementation of the national climate change adaptation plan for the 2021 – 2030 period with a vision by 2050 is phased as follows: 2021 – 2025 phase In the 2021 – 2025 phase: focus on revision and completion of climate change adaptation mechanisms and policies; prepare legal grounds and technical conditions for promoting the integration of climate change contents into relevant policies, strategies and planning; implement prioritized climate change adaptation tasks and solutions, improve capacity for coping with disasters and minimizing damage caused by disasters and unusual climate or weather changes. Key tasks and solutions in the 2021 – 2025 phase: a) Establish and complete the national legal framework for climate change as the basis for formulation of the Law on climate change; review, update and formulate socioeconomic development planning and sectoral planning based on climate change scenarios; promote the integration of climate change contents into relevant strategies and planning; observe and assess the effectiveness of climate change adaptation. b) Provide support for domestic authorities for capacity-building in order to be recognized by the Green Climate Fund, the Adaptation Fund and other funds; prepare and periodically update the National report on climate change adaptation to the UNFCCC. c) Develop and scale up intercropping models adaptable to climate change; enhance the effectiveness of use of agricultural land; arrange appropriate crop structure and types of plants; 120 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution develop and scale up plant varieties, animal breeds, and cultivation and animal breeding models which are adaptable to climate change. d) Manage ecosystems and biodiversity; intensify the restoration of natural ecosystems and protection and conservation of biodiversity; step up ecosystem-based and community-based climate change adaptation models. dd) Carry out observation of climate change, meteorological and hydrological monitoring, forecasting, warning and provision of information on disasters; improve the safety of disaster management structures; punctually and effectively implement solutions for preparedness and control of disasters, including storms, floods, inundation and landslide; adopt measures for protecting cities and concentrated residential areas from floods; prevent and manage river erosion, coastal erosion, droughts and saltwater intrusion; improve resilience of infrastructure facilities; upgrade and improve traffic facilities in regions with high disaster risks and particularly vulnerable to climate change. e) Strengthen human resources for climate change adaptation, including training programs/courses; do research on climate change adaptation; implement human resource development schemes; attract investments in climate change adaptation actions; intensify international cooperation. 2026 – 2030 phase In the 2026 – 2030 phase, continue to intensify the state management of climate change, cooperation and combination of climate change activities with relevant tasks and solutions for improving capacity of industrial sectors/areas, economic sectors, communities and ecosystems in order to increase the resilience and preparedness for adapting to climate change. Continue to improve resilience of infrastructure facilities and adaptive capacity of natural ecosystems and biodiversity; intensify the restoration of natural ecosystems and protection and conservation of biodiversity from the adverse impacts of climate change. Promote adaptation actions which will bring co-benefits for reduction of the risks of climate change and social, economic and environmental efficiency. Monitor and assess the impacts of climate change adaptation actions on the world on Vietnam, and determine solutions for minimizing any adverse impacts and taking advantage of such impacts to achieve socioeconomic development objectives. Vision by 2050 After 2030 to 2050, promote outcomes of the 2021 – 2030 period, continue to improve the capacity for adaptation to climate change of human, infrastructure facilities and natural systems in order to protect and improve the quality of life, and safeguard food security, energy security, water security, gender equality, social security, public health, protection of natural resources, national sustainable development in the climate change context and safety before disasters. Carry out the integration of climate change adaptation into all socioeconomic activities in order to gain initiative in climate change adaptation, take advantage of climate change impacts to achieve socioeconomic development objectives, and make positive contributions towards climate change response and protection of the earth’s climate system to the international community. Road map for transport sector is shown in Table 1 below Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 121 TABLE 5.1. Road map for transport sector Expected outcomes in each Adaptation Presiding period No. Objectives Tasks needs authority By 2025 By 2030 1 Revise and Review, Update and formulate Ministry of 2022: complete formulate strategies and Transport Strategies and policies, and complete planning according planning are strategies and strategies, to climate change approved planning in planning, scenarios with paying transport sector mechanisms special importance and policies to sectors and areas in transport vulnerable to adverse sector for impacts of climate promoting the change integration of climate change Review, formulate Ministry of 2023: adaptation and complete Transport Standards, contents standards, technical technical regulations and regulations technical instructions and technical for construction of instructions road, railway and are updated, waterway transport completed and infrastructure promulgated adaptable to climate change 2 Improve Implement Upgrade, improve and Ministry of 2021: the Increase resilience to programs/ construct road and Transport, scheme is scale, make climate change projects on waterway transport provincial approved; review and through upgrading and infrastructure in areas People’s 2022-2025: assessment measures for improvement of that are threatened by Committees the scheme upgrading traffic structures flood, inundation, sea is piloted in infrastructure in in areas that are level rise, especially regions transport sector threatened by Mekong Delta disasters and vulnerable to Upgrade, improve Ministry of 2021: the Increase climate change and construct road Transport, scheme is scale, make traffic works that can provincial approved; review and withstand landslides People’s 2022-2025: assessment in the northern Committees the scheme highlands and the is piloted in central highlands of regions Vietnam 122 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution WORKING PAPER 6 - ADAPTATION BY SPATIAL AND TRANSPORT PLANNING Author: Dr. Jasper R Cook, Tran Thi Kim Dang, Bui Ngoc Hung, Ly Hai Bang, Tran Viet Hung, Nguyen Kim Thanh, Bui Van Dai 1. Adaptation Strategies of the European countries Framework of the European Union: Generally, extreme events resulting from climate change are regarded as a political challenge for the entire world. Thus the European Union understood the task of adaptation as a common challenge for all member states. The approval of NAS has happened in different years. Finland started in 2005, Spain and France followed in 2006, Norway in 2007, Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and UK in 2008, Sweden in 2009, and Portugal in 2010. The most advanced National Adaptation Strategy (NAS) has been issued by the Netherlands, which are challenged by extreme weather events for a long time. First of all, adaptation strategies are the basis for developing risk maps to localize the dangerous areas. This is an essential tool for informing the public. Middle Europe: For middle Europe, intensification and accumulation of extreme weather events such as heat, droughts, and floods are expected both from the sea and rivers. A distinct change of dry and wet periods contributes to subsidence of the ground, which causes damages to infrastructures. Germany has adopted a comprehensive strategy and researches various projects with a focus on climate consciousness spatial planning. In terms of spatial planning, the German adaptation strategy highlights the meaning of planning instruments. The Netherlands represents a particular case due to its topographic conditions; many lands lie under sea level. Thus, the national adaptation strategy has been drafted along with the spatial issues. One key element is the reduction of vulnerability of transport infrastructure. After focusing on technical solutions in the past, such as building material, pumping systems etc.), the current strategy highlights planning instruments. Roads can be protected from flooding by providing enough space for rivers for retention (infiltration). Moreover, the designation of multifunctional space offers a temporary water reservoir for heavy rainfalls. The risk of flooding is also given for the south and east parts of the United Kingdom. Together with the Netherlands, only the UK already planned and partly realized options for action in road infrastructure. Also, Denmark, Ireland, and Belgium focus on measures to reduce the impact of floods if transport infrastructure is concerned. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 123 Northern Europe: This area, comprising the countries Finland, Norway, Sweden, and Iceland, will most likely be affected by more rain falls, a general increase in the temperature, a reduction of the area covered by snow, and a decline in depth of frost. The main problems for road infrastructure are flooding and wash-away. The national adaptation strategies of Finland, Norway, and Sweden explicitly address spatial and transport planning. The suggested action focuses on the flood risk (i.e., coast protection), such as (i) Extension of drainage along roads, (ii) Enforcement and regular maintenance of dykes, bridges, infrastructure, (iii) Risk maps. The adaptation strategy requires new road network plans regarding the height of roads to tackle rising water tables and the risk of landslides. Alpine Region: In the mountainous areas of Austria and Switzerland, the transport infrastructure is challenged a lot by extreme weather events. Roads have to be adapted to the retreat of glaciers, heavy rainfall, and the melting of permafrost soil. Especially in river valleys, floods can cause damages to the road infrastructure. Both countries are currently developing a national adaptation strategy. Austria elaborates hithes NAS with the involvement of all stakeholders and analyzing international examples. Measures to avoid dangers are strongly recommended, for instance, by fostering the danger consciousness, information campaigns, issuing of risk maps, and strengthening of flood risk management. The Federal Environmental Agency has developed a database of adaptation measures in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management, and Climate- and Energy Fund. The Swiss NAS deals with nine sectors, among others with land use, handling of natural hazards and water management. Spatially relevant for the latter field is creating new large and safe dam reservoirs and the retention areas along the rivers. As for natural hazards, special attention is needed towards landslides, storms, earth flows, and floods. Southern Europe: In contrast to the other regions, the southern countries suffer Spain, Portugal, Italy, and especially Greece from water shortage, heatwaves, and drought periods. Therefore adaptation projects aim to reduce water consumption in the real estate sector. In case of water shortage, Spanish municipalities are advised to develop emergency plans (cf. Meister et al. 2009, Swart et al. 2009). The Spanish NAS priories the conservation of biodiversity and protection of water resources. Spatial Planning is implemented on a regional base, such as the strategic environmental assessment. 2. Land Use and Road network planning Road network planning is one part of the spatially relevant discipline of transport planning, defined as - goal-oriented, systematic, foresighted, and informed the preparation of decisions, which aim to influence the traffic according to the goals. Generally, planning measures are the basis for reducing infrastructure vulnerability and ensuring the necessary adaptation measures towards extreme weather events. The German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change was issued in 2008. It contains the objective to create effective habitat systems by linking living spaces within the superregional road network. In order to avoid the separation of natural systems, it is necessary to thoughtfully design 124 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution the planning of urban areas and transport infrastructures such as roads. In terms of planning, an important measure is to secure the road alignments by preventive planning measures. In order to minimize the necessary urban and regional roads, it is necessary to pursue a strategy of sustainable transport planning. This can be supported by a settlement structure that generates little traffic and enables bundling traffic together. To reach this goal, an integrated approach of town planning and road planning is necessary and has already been adopted at the regional level regarding several conurbations in Germany. An example of this strategy can be seen in Hamburg, where the entire road infrastructure of a new urban development not protected by the main dyke is elevated on artificial foundations with a height of 7,5 to 8 m over mean sea level. A vital instrument within the German planning system is the Municipal land-use planning (Bauleitplanung), which enables municipalities to implement preventive measures, such as locate roads apart from endangered areas of flooding. Finland: The National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate change in Finland also contains measures concerning road network planning. Besides infrastructure measures, the sector ―land use and community planning‖ contains new norms and guidelines for road and railway planning and construction (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry 2005, p. 220 et seq.). It is aimed to optimize all long-term plans in terms of traffic safety and warrant the functional capability of road infrastructure (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry 2009). Switzerland: Another exciting country to be reviewed here would be Switzerland due to its long- term practice in adaptation planning. Canada: An exciting approach from Québec, Canada, to tackle the problem of fluctuations in sea levels, which also applies to European coastal areas, is the inclusion of the management of the road system within a long-term and integrated planning of the coastal zone. 3. Assessment of additional measures: As the result of the review of the national adaptation strategies of the European countries, the following additional measures can be considered as most important: Shifting of road alignments beyond areas at risk: The alignments of urban, regional, and national roads are decided after a specific procedure. Usually, this also includes a cost-benefit analysis; however, the standards are different among the countries. In order to guarantee the proper consideration of the danger of climate change and natural hazards, such as extreme weather events, a life cycle approach is necessary. Whereas it is relatively easy and quick to apply to new roads, it is difficult for already existing roads, which lie in vulnerable areas. Depending on the case (new planning or realignment), the costs will be very different. In the case of new planned roads, the measure can be relatively easily implemented. However, most (major) roads are already planned in Europe. Thus, the primary case will be the realignment of already existing roads, located in the area of risk. The costs are high because the shifting process requires an entirely new planning procedure. However, also the benefits are pretty high since the previous problems can be entirely avoided. Road alignments with less land consumption and more effective utilization of existing infrastructure: In most cases, roads should be planned in an efficient thus economic way. However, Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 125 considering possible damage due to weather extremes, the consumption criteria should be higher weighted. In order to keep the desired road capacity, ITS measures should be implemented, such as dynamic speed control and flexible lane direction designation. In the case of urban roads, also concepts of ―shared space‖ should be considered. The benefit of this measure is stated to be moderate since investment costs can be lowered. However, the costs are meager, balancing the savings on construction costs with the investment in ITS. Avoiding urbanization of areas at risk: This measure is already considered in the long term, especially for areas endangered by common natural hazards, such as floods, volcanoes, or avalanches. However, the strong economic interest of the landowners and developers and local political interest makes it very difficult to realize this measure for new urbanization. As for already existing developments, it is even more difficult to withdraw an already given building permission. If the implementation succeeds, the measure’s benefits would be relatively high, and the direct cost would be virtually zero. Concepts of removing the hard surfaces that are covering the ground/land rehabilitation program: To adapt to climate change and extreme weather events, also means to undertake measures within the urban structure. One major problem of the vulnerability of cities (and urban roads) to heavy rain and floods is the high level of sealing, i.e., surface covered by concrete and asphalt. Therefore areas that are not required anymore (such as seldom-used parking areas) should be revegetated, and the urban concept should include a sufficient amount of green areas such as parks and grass. However, there is often little leeway to remove the hard surface in highly densely urbanized areas. The benefits are high for the process of infiltration, but in case of heavy rain or flooding, this is often not enough, so that the benefit will be estimated as moderate. The costs are also moderate, depending on the extent to which the measure is locally implemented. 126 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution WORKING PAPER 7 - ADAPTATION BY ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE TECHNOLOGIES; A REVIEW OF SOME LITERATURE. Authors: Dr. Jasper R Cook, Tran Thi Kim Dang, Bui Ngoc Hung 1. Prediction of future climate conditions with focus on roads Since the possible adaptation of road infrastructure depends on future weather conditions, it is essential to improve predictions for climate change. Considerable uncertainty may consequently lead stakeholders to no action or reduce the cost-effectiveness of proposed measurements. For this reason, climatic models should be improved and downscaled. Generally speaking, precise predictions of climate conditions are the basis of adaptation strategy. 2. Use of new construction materials and new technology Reducing the vulnerability of infrastructure can be achieved with new construction materials and new technology. The most important findings are presented below: Development of new, heat-resistant paving materials A more common use of polymer-modified bitumen, leads to improved mechanical properties of asphalt mixture, e.g., more resistance to rutting. Improvement in pavement technology, for instance, compact asphalt (“hot on hot” technology), leads to better mechanical properties and durability of pavements. Using polymeric grids to avoid rutting. - Some publications suggest that polymeric grids can reduce deformation during hot weather. According to [Dawson, 2010, Rep. Nr 11] it may not be cost-effective. Using materials on the surface which reflect solar radiation and consequently reduce the temperature within the pavement. - Many authors, e.g. [Kayser 2009] propose using light-colored gravel. Water-retention pavement, proposed by some authors, for example [Kawakami]. It can be challenging to implement in most European regions with hot summers due to the lack of precipitation in this season. Polymeric and other non conventional aggregate treatments. An example is the soil treatment with Dry Powdered Polymers (DPP). Since DPP are costly, a cost-effective use may be limited to regions with exceptional conditions, e.g., high risk of flooding or with a high water table. [Carrera, 2010 a]. Rubber addition to asphalt. - Leads to the improvement of asphalt mixture properties, avoids rutting, and makes a possible reduction of the thickness of asphalt pavement. Furthermore, antioxidants in Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 127 old tires used for modification of asphalt retard its aging. A positive side effect is the usage of old tires and, consequently, the reduction of the amount of waste. However, it should be considered that rubber can be harmful to the environment. Ultra-thin, fiber-reinforced concrete overlays and special micro-surfacing. According to [Dawson, 2010, Rep. Nr 11], the negative effect of extreme heat can be reduced with this measure owing to an increase of stiffness of surface and more excellent reflection of solar radiation. Using new additives for asphalt pavements. - An example can be anti-stripping additives, which can help avoid stripping due to a possible increase in precipitations. Fiber reinforcement (fibers of diverse types, for example, glass fibres, added to cementitious stabilization). Some authors, e.g. [Carrera, 2010], indicate that these additives make materials stabilized by cementless brittle. A more common use of porous asphalt. Very intensive rain may lead to aquaplaning and safety problems. It is well known that porous asphalt help to remove water from the road surface. Another positive effect is the reduction of noise compare to asphalt concrete. Furthermore, [Carrera, 2010 a] suggests that porous asphalt is more resistant to stripping. On the other hand, it is known that porous asphalt has a shorter service life. Foam bitumen stabilization – proposed by [Carrera, 2010] for soil stabilization. Due to the authors, the addition of a small quantity of lime or cement has further advantages. Materials with higher thermal conductivity. – [Kayser, 2010] proposed construction materials with higher thermal conductivity to reduce the temperature within asphalt pavement. Geosynthetics, for instance, for reducing reflective cracking and rutting in pavements, for drainage, and for geotechnical reinforcement. Using of geosynthetics may also be needed to avoid erosion due to intensive precipitations. The main functions of geosynthetics are separation, filtration, reinforcement, and drainage. Using drainage materials that can be easier inspected and maintained. – Many authors highlight that regular maintenance is a crucial measure to avoid flooding and guarantee the bearing capacity of roads. Predicted more frequent and more extreme precipitations can cause more frequent maintenance works after extreme events. To reduce the future expenditure and make quick repairs possible, designed drainage systems should be easy to maintain. 3. Design of pavements for future weather conditions, improvement of design standards and technology Many experts from Europe and other continents underline that it may not be enough to maintain empirical design methods working well in the past. Changing technology, changing properties of construction materials, increasing traffic, higher permitted load on pavements, and changing environmental conditions need to be considered when designing pavements. Design methods based only on empirical data may not be sufficient to incorporate changing factors. 128 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution A solution for this problem can be mechanistic design methods. [Thodesen, 2010] states that mechanical-empirical design methods allow designers to evaluate different materials in different environmental as well as different traffic conditions and are, therefore, to be preferred. Also, other authors underline the importance of changing from the empirical methods to mechanistic-empirical, and finally, into mechanical methods. Since many roads in Europe have been still designed with old methods, much effort should be made to improve mechanistic methods and accelerate their design standards. 4. Design of pavement mixtures more resistible to future regional weather conditions It is well known that the properties of asphalt mixtures depend on numerous factors. Through modification of bitumen, bitumen ration, grading curve, properties and shape of aggregates, or additives, it is possible to influence the properties of pavements mixtures and consequently the properties of pavements. To design appropriately pavement mixtures for future climate conditions and minimize effects of extreme events, it will be necessary to change the design process of asphalt mixtures. 5. Maintenance of pavements Most authors highlight the importance of the maintenance of pavements. Due to restrictions in the budget, many roads are not maintained satisfactorily and are consequently more vulnerable to extreme events. 6. Design of road networks (reducing of vulnerability) Many authors state that the vulnerability of road infrastructure can be reduced at the level of network planning, taking into account climate change. As an example, [Culp, 2009] proposes restrictions of development in floodplains, the return of some coastal areas to nature, and the relocation of some sections of roads. Moreover, he suggests that development in vulnerable regions can be influenced through higher flood insurance rates. However, this measure has substantial limitations in developed countries since probably the central part of the network at the end of this century will be comprised of currently existing infrastructure. 7. Adequate design and maintenance of bridges and tunnels High temperatures lead to the thermal expansion of bridges. For this reason, possible higher temperatures should be taken into account when designing bridges. Joints should have the ability to accommodate predicted thermal expansion. Many authors suggest updating the design standards. Furthermore, due to probable higher maximal water flow in rivers caused by extreme precipitations, higher loads on bridges must be considered. 8. Improvement to the stability of slopes and embankments Due to more intensive extreme precipitations or unfavorable changes in the condition of protective vegetation, landslides can occur more frequently. For this reason, additional works or changes in design standards may be needed to improve the stability of slopes. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 129 9. Vegetation management along roads According to hot spots, falling trees and wildfires will be causing severe problems as a consequence of more frequent and more intensive extreme events. The impact of droughts, causing wildfires and storms can be reduced with adequate vegetation management along roads and surrounding areas. Some vegetation species are less vulnerable to wildfires or can resist heavier storms. To avoid obstructions in traffic and safety problems in high wind speed, some trees in bad condition may need to be cut down. 10. Sealing of unpaved roads [Dawson, 2010, Rep. Nr 11] reports that currently, unsealed roads in central Nordic regions may have to be stabilized. This would be very costly. A positive side effect is the reduction of dust. As environmental standards and expectations of road users are rising, probably many roads will be sealed independently of climate change until 2050. 11. Special measures in permafrost regions Climate warming can cause severe problems in permafrost regions due to loss of soil stability. 12. Measures in response to the rising water table Rising water table, caused, for instance, by sea-level rise, can cause problems to road infrastructure. To minimize the impact, it is recommended to elevate the infrastructure. However, it would be possible only for newly constructed roads. 13. Installation of monitoring systems combined with effective communication to users It was established that traffic obstructions lead to severe economic consequences [Enei, 2011]. This can be minimized with the installation of monitoring systems. Nowadays, monitoring becomes more common not only because of weather extremes. It is very likely that in the following decades monitoring systems will be much more widespread and less expensive. 14. Taking into account other aspects of climate change and weather extremes [Dawson, 2010] highlights possible indirect consequences of climate change. He concludes that aspects like transportation method, vehicle type, demographic change, or road users’ expectations may significantly impact road construction and maintenance in the future. 15. Cooling of electronic infrastructure The participants in the 3rd Workshop [Doll, Klug, 2011] suggested a need to improve cooling systems for electronic infrastructure on roads. Extreme heat may lead to a malfunction of telematic systems or traffic signals. Electronic equipment should be designed to be more resistant to heat. 16. Changes in operations Due to changing environmental conditions, some changes in operations may be needed. Extreme events are likely to cause traffic obstructions and limitations. An example can be load limitations 130 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution during extreme heat. However, road users’ expectations and some trends, like the increasing importance of just-in-time supply, make such limitation unacceptable. 17. Cooperation between climatologists and road authorities Since the early adjustment of road infrastructure is beneficent, different regional changes need other adaptation measures, and adaptation strategy should be adjusted to new results in climate projection; the cost-effectiveness of action can be improved through cooperation between climatologists and road authorities. 18. Tools to help decision-makers to invest right for adaptation measures An example is the project “RIMAROCC - Risk Management for Roads in Changing Climate” [Adesiyun, 2011], which helps to estimate the risk of climate change. 19. Investment in research on properties and behavior of pavements Nowadays, the exact deterioration processes of roads are still not fully understood. For this reason, it would be beneficial to improve the understanding of the behavior of pavements and, in this way, prepare the infrastructure to changing environmental conditions more adequately. This can be achieved with higher investment in research projects. This measure may be very beneficial even without climate change and can lead to more reasonable usage of natural resources. 20. Flood control Floods will likely cause serious damage not only to the road infrastructure but also to predicted more intensive precipitations. Better flood control can be achieved, for instance, through the adjustment of protective walls and levees, retention areas, and regulation of rivers. It is essential to say that proper flood control is needed even in constant climate conditions. 21. Design of road drainage for future weather conditions Many authors suggest higher dimensions of drainage systems as a response to changing precipitation characteristics. However, the trend in intensive rains of short life span (relevant to dimensioning of drainage system) is different from region to region, and often it is impossible to find significant explicit trends. 22. Maintenance management system for road drainage Most authors underline the importance of proper and scheduled maintenance of road drainage. Results of the project “SWAMP – Storm Water Prevention, Methods to predict Damage from the Water Stream in and near Road Pavements in Lowland Areas” suggest that flooding can be prevented, mainly through the cleaning and maintenance of drainage. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 131 WORKING PAPER 8 REVIEW AND LIST GUIDELINES, BEST PRACTICES AND EXPERIENCE NOTES WITH INTEGRATION OF CCR IN TRANSPORT PLANNING Author: Ly Hai Bang I. Documents reviewed 1. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva, 2011: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations: A Challenge for Global Ports. 2. Schwartz, H.G., Jr. America’s Climate Choices: Adaptation—A Challenge to the Transportation Industry. TRB Webinar. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., Nov. 3, 2010, 69 pp. 3. Karl, T., J. Melillo, and T. Peterson (eds). Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2009. 4. Walker, L., A. Figliozzi, A. Haire, and J. MacArthur. Climate Action Plans and Long-Range Transportation Plans in the Pacific Northwest: A Review of the State of Practice. Transportation Research Forum, Washington, D.C., March 2010. 5. Matthews, T. Climate Change Adaptation in Urban Systems: Strategies for Planning Regimes. Research Paper 32. Urban Research Program, Brisbane, Australia, Jan. 2011. 6. Stocker, T.F. (ed.). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Cambridge University Press, New York, 2013. 7. Eisenack, K., R. Stecker, D. Reckien, and E. Hoffman. Adaptation to Climate Change in the Transport Sector: A Review. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, May 2011. 8. Transportation Adaptation to Global Climate Change. National Transportation Policy Project, Bipartisan Policy Center, Washington, D.C., 2009. 9. De Bruin, K., R.B. Dellink, A. Ruijs, L. Bolwidt, A. Van Buuren, J. Graveland, R.S. De Groot, P. Kuikman, S. Reinhard, R.P. Roetter, V.C. Tassone, A. Verhagen, and E.C. Van Ierland. Adapting to Climate Change in The Netherlands: An Inventory of Climate Adaptation Options and Ranking of Alternatives. Climate Change, Vol. 95, Issue 1-2, 2009, pp. 23–45. 132 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution 10. Kaufman, S., C. Qing, N. Levenson, and M. Hanson. Transportation During and After Hurricane Sandy. Rudin Center for Transportation, Wagner Graduate School of Public Service, New York University, 2012. 11. Stenek, V., C. Amado, R. Connell, O. Palin, S. Wright, B. Pope, J. Hunter, J. McGregor, W. Morgan, B. Stanley, R. Washington, D. Liverman, H. Sherwin, P. Kapelus, C. Andrade, and D. Pabon. Climate Risk and Business: Ports. International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group), Cartagena, Colombia, 2011. 12. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2532, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2015, pp. 1–12. DOI: 10.3141/2532-01 13. Parry, M., O. Canziani, J. Palutikof, P. van der Linden, and C. Hanson (eds.). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2007. 14. McCarthy, J., O. Canziani, N. Leary, D. Dokken, and K. White (eds.). Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2001. 15. Rosenzweig, C., and M. Parry. Potential Impact of Climate Change on World Food Supply. Nature, Vol. 367, 1994, pp. 133–138. 16. Kaiser, H., S. Riha, D. Wilks, and R. Sampath. Adaptation to Global Climate Change at the Farm Level. In Agricultural Dimensions of Global Climate Change (H.M. Kaiser and T.E. Drennen, eds.), St. Lucie Press, Delray Beach, Fla., 1993. 17. Smithers, J., and B. Smit. Human Adaptation to Climatic Variability and Change. Global Environmental Change, Vol. 7, No. 2, 1997, pp. 129–146 18. Smit, B., I. Burton, R. Klein, and R. Street. The Science of Adaptation: A Framework for Assessment. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 4, No. 3-4, 1999, pp. 199–213. 19. Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom. UK Climate Impacts Programme, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom, April 2002. 20. Giannopoulos, G., E. Gagatsi, E. Mitsakis, and J.M. Salanova. Risks and Impacts of Climate Change on the Transport Sector. In Environmental, Financial and Social Impacts of Climate Change in Greece, Report of Climate Change Impact Assessment Committee, Bank of Greece, Athens, Greece, 2012. 21. Lonergan, S., R. Difrancesco, and M. K. Woo. Climate Change and Transportation in Northern Canada: An Integrated Impact Assessment. Climate Change, Vol. 24, No. 4, 1993, pp. 331–351. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 133 22. Graves, H.M., and M.C. Phillipson. Potential Implications of Climate Change in the Built Environment. Construction Research Communications, Peterborough, United Kingdom, 2000. 23. Meyer, M. D. (2008). Design standards for US transportation infrastructure: The implications of climate change. 24. Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. 2008. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation: Special Report 290. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/12179. 134 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution 1. Adaptation measures concerning climate change Definition. It is first important to adopt the definition of adaptation to climate change because many scientific publications considering adaptation in transportation published since the early 1980s have just attempted to provide a definition the best suits the term. As defined by Parry et al. (2007), adaptation measures are “initiatives and measures that can reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects”. Adaptation measures history. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) only mentioned adaptation in its second assessment report in 1995, although the IPCC was first established in 1988. The necessity of adaptation strategies for climate change implications was recognized in the third assessment report (2001), which stated that because mitigation measures would not suffice to prevent climate change, adaptation measures and policies would be necessary (McCarthy et al., 2001). Research on adaptation. Kaiser et al. (1993), and Rosenzweig and Parry (1994) reported that systems would adapt on their own to the ever-changing climate conditions. Smithers and Smit (1997) changed that perspective a few years later. They identified the various interpretations of adaptation thus far and proposed a classification scheme for differentiating adaptation strategies by recognizing the characteristics of climatic events and their properties. Who or What. Smit et al. (1999) questioned who or what adapts. This question opened a new perspective in adaptation research, and it implied that adaptation measures could differ depending on the sector of human activity (transportation, energy, water, etc.). This difference is especially true for transportation, for which adaptation measures are vastly different depending on the mode of transport. Significant contribution. In 2002, the newly established Climate Impacts Program in the United Kingdom published a list of scenarios that sums up the effects of climate change weather patterns and provides a set of options for addressing them; thus, it contributed formidable research on climate change-related impacts and adaptation strategies (in Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom). Besides, Lonergan et al. (1993), Graves and Phillipson (2000), and Giannopoulos et al. (2012) made efforts to contribute to a more specialized approach to adaptation research. 2. Adaptation measures: International guidance, best practices, experience Suggested adaptation measures summarized during the literature review are clustered based on their content. It is noted that adaptation measures in road transport are expected to monopolize interest in the near future, since they concern the dominant means of transport for everyday mobility in urban and regional areas. Clustering the adaptation measures summarized the following sub-sections reveals a majority of technical options compared with others. Such solutions are often more straightforward in terms of implementation than organizational or legislative measures, in which potential bureaucracy may result in slow reaction times from the authorities. This result is arguable to be expected because of the reason as mentioned above. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 135 a) Organizational and Decision-Making Processes Measure A1. Setting and implementation of international standards for weather and emergency information. Measure A2. Consultation with and coordination of highway authorities, subcontractors, suppliers, and key stakeholders to adjust adaptation strategies. Measure A3. Establishment of networks of urban, regional, and national stakeholders, transport companies, authorities, and users. Measure A4. Issuance of educational and information material on emergency cases, planning, and maintenance to related authorities. Measure A5. Conduct public campaigns in order to raise public awareness regarding local hazard situations. b) Technical Options Measure B1. Construction of dikes and creation of flood barriers for protection against water. Measure B2. Innovative pavement materials resistant to corrosion. Measure B3. Improved drainage in intersections. Measure B4. Elevation of coastal road networks. Measure B5. Design of and investment in new assets with ‘’quick restoration’’ capability. Measure B6. Provision of shelters for nonmotorized transport. Measure B7. Preparation for sufficient salt stocks and road clearing equipment availability before and during winter or storm seasons. Measure B8. Development of timely communication and coordination plans involving stakeholders and freight operator associations. Measure B9. Roadside vegetation, absorbing generated heat, protecting roads. Measure B10. Design of new heat-resistant asphalt mixes. Measure B11. More heat-resilient bridge joints. Measure B12. Need for improvement of drainage-sewer systems as well as for more roadside rain pits. Measure B13. New asphalt mixes help in faster drainage of standing water. Measure B14. Enhancement of road layers to prevent washing off. 136 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Measure B15. Measures of protection against slope subsidence around road/rail network to avoid cut-off links. Measure B16. Additional pumping in tunnels. Measure B17. Installation of windbreaks. Measure B18. New design standards relating to components of the road network (signs, lighting) enhance users’ protection. Measure B19. Regular clearance of cycle lanes and sidewalks during winter. c) Procedural and Operational Options Measure C1. Organization of the supply of trapped drivers/passengers with the help of volunteers and aid organizations. Measure C2. Adaptation of timetables and service intensities under adverse weather conditions. Measure C3. Need for alternate routes for freight transport in Arctic areas. Measure C4. Priority plans that maintain access to hospitals and emergency stations. Measure C5. Definition of priority routes for road clearance in case of large-scale impacts. Measure C6. Tracking of “chain reactions” of extreme weather events, particularly in agglomeration areas. Measure C7. Coordination of emergency plans among transport modes and networks. Measure C8. Implementation of appropriate risk management procedures in order to be prepared for adverse conditions. d) Information Flow and ICT Support Measure D1. Development of sustainable business models for the provision of emergency information systems. Measure D2. Provision of reliable, instant, and—if feasible—personalized information on the duration of the incident and travel options. Measure D3. Installation of signs that warn the driver on the upcoming pedestrian flooded network. Measure D4. Development of intelligent feedback systems in vehicles to communicate user needs. Measure D5. Adopted operational, physical, technical, procedural, and institutional integration of weather and traffic control services. Measure D6. Preparation and broad communication on disruptions and alternatives with the public, using a variety of communication channels. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 137 Measure D7. Standardization of weather information and hazard warnings. e) Decision and Risk Models Measure E1. Provision of cost-benefit assessment guidelines to logistics companies. Measure E2. Assessment of logistics companies’ risk exposure and establishment of appropriate adaptation plans. f) Legislative Options Measure F1. Strict speed limit enforcement during storms. Measure F2. Review of maintenance contracts and procedures to make them flexible and effective even under rapidly changing weather conditions. 3. Assessment of Adaptation measures Due to the extent of road networks worldwide and the number of people using them for mobility, any implications would result in millions of lost work hours and various economic and social consequences. In response to that, measures must be taken to tackle this giant, upcoming problem. It goes without question that maintenance procedure protocols need to be adapted to the ever- changing conditions because the need for servicing networks and infrastructure under the impact of extreme weather events will be severe as the climate gradually changes (Measure F2). In detail, road networks are at high risk in areas that are likely to be affected by water level rise. Significantly, infrastructure which lies close to the shore should at least be elevated if not relocated or closed permanently (Measure B4). Increased rainfall could lead to flooding problems in urban and rural networks. Thus, effective draining is crucial. While most road networks have similar draining requirements, intersections are a particular category, which should be treated with special care. The fact that many intersections have mild or non-existent gradients makes the draining of water even harder. As a result, draining should be improved using bigger run-off pipes, unique asphalt mixes (porous asphalt), and more significant storm drains (Measure B3). Poor draining often results in standing water, which reduces traction and leads to accidents. Speed limits should be strictly applied so as for drivers to have more time to react to possible aquaplaning and to reduce the force of an impact to the driver (Measure F1). Except flooding, intense rainfalls can cause slope subsidence. In many regions, rainfall slopes, which have not to be stabilized, can subside, leading to rockfalls and mudslides. Minor accidents, closed links, or even human casualties have been reported on such occasions. Thus protective measures should be planned and taken (Measure B15). Information flow measures are equally necessary as those of a more technical nature. Provision of information to users is very crucial. Public campaigns are a significant mean to raise awareness of 138 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution users on the possible problems that may arise in the areas they reside in, making them more cautious and familiar with emergency solutions on problems, due to weather phenomenon (Measure A5). 4. Roadmap of Adaptation measures: mainstream climate considerations into transport planning The proposed roadmap details the order that needs to be followed to enhance the resilience of road transport systems and reduce their vulnerability to climate change impacts. The results of the assessment (Figure 1) were used to place each measure on the appropriate roadmap following the identification of these criteria: (i) Start of the implementation period (left edge of each measure’s box), (ii) Time needed for its implementation (length of the box on the x-axis), (iii) Financial resources needed for its implementation (indication on a high-medium-low scale depending on the mode of transport under examination), and (iv) Contribution of measure to reduced vulnerability and enhanced transport system resilience (placement of box on the y-axis). FIGURE 1. Roadmap of adaptation measures in the literature. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 139 5. Adapted Adaptation measures: Case of Vietnam The proposed roadmap, as mentioned above, is summarized from international studies. In the case of Vietnam, which has a specific particularity, this roadmap must be adapted. This section discusses the applicability of these measures. a) Organizational and Decision-Making Processes Measure A1 requires a review and systematic investigation of international standards. Thus it could be difficult for local consultants in terms of languages, availability, and the possibility to apply, adapt to Vietnamese standards. It would require a longer review process and studies to adopt these standards to fit the Vietnamese context. These studies could be in the form of a Technical Assistant (TA) to help the Ministry of Transport (MOT) and other ministries to achieve relevant outputs. The contribution to reducing the vulnerability is rated High in this case, but a more protracted process is required. The cost to implement this measure is evaluated as Low (from 3 to 5 TAs could be conducted with the given financial frame) Measure A2, A3, and A4 require exchanges with the authorities, stakeholders, companies. Given that the awareness of climate change in Vietnam is still at the very initial stage, these tasks would be more difficult for all the stakeholders. The contribution to reducing the vulnerability is rated Moderate in this case, but a more protracted process is required. The cost to implement this measure is evaluated as Low for A2, A3, and Medium for A4. Measure A5 is critical to raise public awareness regarding local hazard situations. However, the contribution to reducing the vulnerability is rated Moderate. For this particular measure, in Vietnam, it is suggested to conduct this measure for a longer time, with a Medium implementation cost. The starting point A5 is proposed at T+0.5 to prepare the content of public campaigns to achieve the highest effectiveness. b) Technical Options Measure B1 must be carefully considered, especially in the South of Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh city) and mountainous areas in the North. The priority list for the construction of dikes must be first analyzed, following by the financial plan for the proposed activities. This could require a long process of implementation. Measures B2, B5, B10 are rated High while applying to Vietnam, especially for the Central, but much effort on research is required. Research projects at MOT’s level must be conducted for this measure. Measures B3, B8, B9, B11, B12, B14, B15, B16, and B18 are found applicable in Vietnam, with the given timing and cost. Measures B9 requires a high cost and lengthy implementation time in Vietnam. Measures B3 and B15 should be placed on the priority list as they are rated as Very High contribution but Low cost. B11 and B16 should be placed at the later phase of the roadmap after carefully verify the technology of the proposed measures. Measure B4 is, on the contrary, rated as a limited contribution to reducing the vulnerability within the next 10 years in Vietnam. The road networks in Vietnam are less influenced by sea-level rise. Measures B6, B13 are rated challenging to achieve in Vietnam. With B6, there are limited roads for nonmotorized transport in Vietnam. The traffic stream in Vietnam is a mixture of vehicle types with different sizes, weights, and powers. With B13, an appropriate mix-design should be developed and also standardized. 140 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Measure B7 is found to have limited contribution in Vietnam, or could only be applied in a very few areas (in the North of Vietnam) for salt stocks during winter. Road clearing equipment is also not applicable, given the economic situation of Vietnam. This measure is suggested (by the author) to be removed from the roadmap. Measure B17 is found to have a limited contribution in Vietnam. Measure B19 is found not applicable in Vietnam, given the complex traffic situation. c) Procedural and Operational Options Measure C1 should be carefully considered, as Vietnamese authorities are familiar with this type of measure. Measure C3 is found not applicable in Vietnam. Measures C2 and C4 to C8 should take advantage of international experiences to develop the process, plans, as well as priority plans to deal with extreme weather events. Several TAs or research projects could also be conducted to strengthen the awareness/knowledge of the Vietnamese authorities/stakeholders. d) Information Flow and ICT Support Measures D4, D5 are challenging to apply in Vietnam in terms of Information Technology. These could be long-term orientation measures but must go along with the digital transformation process in Vietnam. However, with a medium to high implementation cost, these measures are suggested to perform in the later stage of the roadmap. Measures D1, D2, D3, D7 could also be started from the earliest stage of the roadmap with several TAs or research projects to be more effective. Measure D6. Preparation and broad communication on disruptions and alternatives with the public, using a variety of communication channels. Measure D7 should be developed with cooperation between MOT (DOST, DTS), MIC, MARD and MONRE e) Decision and Risk Models Measures E1 and E2 could be long-term measures with several TAs or research projects at MOT’s level. f) Legislative Options Measures F1 and F2 could be a short-term perspective; however, F1 is limited in terms of efficiency. More attention should be paid to measure F2, as it is rated High contribution. 6. Roadmap of Adapted Adaptation measures for Vietnam Base on the discussions in the previous section, a roadmap of adapted adaptation measures for Vietnam is proposed herein but might need more discussion to be finalized. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 141 FIGURE 2. Roadmap of Adapted Adaptation measures for Vietnam II. Decision Framework for Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change 1. Transportation Infrastructure Step 1. Assess how climate changes are likely to affect various regions of the country and modes of transportation. Step 2. Inventory transportation infrastructure essential to maintaining network performance in light of climate change projections to determine whether, when, and where their impacts could be consequential. Step 3. Analyze adaptation options to assess the trade-offs between making the infrastructure more robust and the costs involved. Consider monitoring as an option. Step 4. Determine investment priorities, taking into consideration the criticality of the infrastructure components as well as opportunities for multiple benefits (for example, congestion relief or the removal of evacuation route bottlenecks). Step 5. Develop and implement a program of adaptation strategies for the near and long terms. Step 6. Periodically assess the effectiveness of adaptation strategies, and repeat Steps 1 to 142 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution WORKING PAPER 9: SHORT NOTE ON CLIMATE RESILIENCE OPTIONS FOR NH19 PRIORITY SECTION Author: Dr. Jasper R Cook, Tran Viet Hung A Introduction 1. This short note brings together the key issues relevant to the selection of Climate Change Resilience (CCR) options for NH19 bridges. Comments and recommendations are made on CCR for the 8 identified bridges as well as on CRR implications for other NH19 assets. B Current Strategic Policy on Climate Resilient Roads in Vietnam 2. Action plan of the Ministry of Transport on proactively responding to climate change, strengthening natural resource management and environmental protection in the period of 2021 - 2025 (Decision No. 452/QD-BGTVT dated March 24th/ 2021) proposes many positive solutions for Climate Change Adaptation, which are specifically summarized as follows: - Enhance the resilience to climate change of transport infrastructure by: (a) Integrating the implementation of the national plan to adapt to climate change in the planning and investment planning for transport development in the period 2021-2025, focusing on areas with high vulnerability to climate change, such as the Mekong River Delta and the Northern mountainous region and the Central Highlands; (b) Develop a legal document framework by focusing on reviewing, amending and supplementing standards, regulations and technical guidelines for climate-adaptive transport infrastructure; (c) Research and application of new technologies and construction materials that are capable to adapt to climate change; (d) Mobilizing and attracting financial resources for climate change adaptation; (e) Strengthening capacity of monitoring system for extreme weather to support transport infrastructure management and maintenance; (f ) Coordination among ministries and sectors in establishing and sharing database system, monitoring and evaluation system framework, and climate change adaptation planning. - Expand the application of non-stop electronic road toll to promote the efficiency of highway network investment, reduce travel time, reduce fuel consumption and mitigate emissions. - Effectively manage and use natural resources in transportation infrastructure construction and operation. - Enhance environmental protection in the planning, investment, development and maintenance of transport infrastructure. - Improve the quality of the preparation of environmental impact assessment reports, environmental protection plans in the preparation of investment projects and maintenance works of transport infrastructure. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 143 - Management, reuse, recycling, encouraging uses of plastic waste in transport infrastructure construction and maintenance C Road and Bridge Design Standards in Vietnam Relevant to Climate Change Resilience 3. To date no road-specific engineering design guidelines for climate change resilience have formally adopted in Vietnam and Climate Change Resilience (CCR) is not specifically included in Vietnam’s engineering design standards for roads and bridges. The two sets of national standards relevant to the engineering design of roads and bridges in Vietnam are TCVN 4054:2005 and TCVN 9845:2013. After the design frequency (return period, or Px) for a structure has been determined with reference to TCVN 4054:2005, the hydrologic calculations based on that frequency are done with reference to formulas specified in TCVN 9845:2013. The existing standards do provide relevant formulas wherein 1 day maximum rainfall (Rx1 Day) value is a key input that can be adjusted for climate change. 4. The national standards for roads and bridges require a design flood level of 1 in 100 years for expressways (P1 or 1%) and 1 in 25 years (P4 or 4%) for category 3, 4, or 5 rural roads; see Table 1 for detail. The 1-day annual maximum rainfall total (Rx1day) is identified as the critical variable in all formulas for hydrologic calculations of design water discharge, flood level, and flow velocity. Under certain undefined technical conditions the return periods can be adjusted (eg 4% to 1%) however it appears that this is not allowed for purely financial budget or cost constraint reasons. TABLE 1. Design Frequencies (Px values) to be applied to Different Road Categories and Assets (TCVN 4054) Road Asset Road Category Expressway I & II III, IV, V Medium and large bridges P1 (1 in 100 RP) P1 (1 in 100 RP) P1 (1 in 100 RP) Small bridges and culverts P1 (1 in 100 RP) P2 (1 in 50 RP) P4 (1 in 25 RP) Interception and side drainage P4 (1 in 25 RP) P4 (1 in 25 RP) P4 (1 in 25 RP) Notes: Large bridge: LC >100m; Medium Bridge: 25m LC < 100m; Small Bridge: LC < 25m. Where LC is linear distance between the two abutments. NH 19 is designated a Class III road. D Guidance from MoT and MoNRE Adopted by Consultants on CCR for NH19 5. In their Climate Resilience Report the Consultants quoted a number of guidance points from MoT and MoNRE; these include (edited for English): • The RPC 8.5 climate change scenario should be applied NH19 as “permanent works”. 144 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution • Determination of (adaptation) level must be based on practical needs and resources that are available • . The design life of the Works should be used to select the relevant period of time for the determination of climate change impact. • It may be necessary to consider the implementation phasing of the Works in order to achieve solutions to cope with climate change (e.g embankment elevation). • Calculations for sea level rise and change in rainfall should be defined in accordance with the current technical standards.(i) Select the average value of sea level and precipitation of the base period 1986-2005 for the geographical area of the Works; (ii) Select sea level rise, rainfall change for scenario of climate change & sea level rise according to the appropriate period and the time for the geographical area of the Works; (iii) Sea level height = value (i) + value (ii); Rainfall = value (i) X (100 + value (ii))/l 00. • Compare the parameters that is identified as mentioned in the Item a, b and to carry out the design solutions 6. The consequence of the above guidance is that maximum values of CRR adaptation have been selected by the Consultants for design of large bridges based on: • Most conservative climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) • Maximum design frequency P1 (1:100 RP) • Climate change for 2099 7. CCR calculations commissioned by the Consultants based on the above criteria and using 3 selected climate models (cnrm-cm5, GFDL-cm3, H4Dcem2-es) resulted in very high deck levels for the selected bridges. A comparison with the World Bank Climate Portal (WBCP) figures and comparing these RCP 4.5 outputs with the Consultants RCP 4.5 outputs showed very significant differences. The WBCP outputs are based on using median figures from the 10-90% percentile of 16 climate models (Annex B) E Research and Applied Practice Relevant to NH19 CRR 8. Recent ADB-funded work in Vietnam has been undertaken on resilience options for infrastructure that is relevant to NH192 3. Some key points are: i. A regional climate model (e.g., PRECIS13) can be successfully run for a delineated sub- region in which the boundary conditions are derived from a parent GCM. ii. RCP 8.5, although recommended by MoNRE, represents the most conservative assumptions on limiting future global greenhouse gas emissions. 2 ADB. 2020a. Climate-Change Adjustments for Detailed Engineering Design: With Worked Examples from Viet Nam. Manila. 3 ADB. 2018. Adjusting Hydrological Inputs to Road Designs for Climate Change Risk Guidelines to Apply Extreme Value Analysis. ADB Knowledge Product ADB PPTA 8957. Manila Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 145 iii. There is a significant challenge in using climate change data for medium to large sized bridges that require a design to withstand 1% (1 in 100 years extreme events) as these bridges often have limited capital investment available which in turn limits the resources for design assessment and implementation. iv. Historical hydrometeorological records do not adequately represent the extreme climate conditions lying in store for long-lived structures, however, climate models can yield reliable information about changes in extreme-weather at the scale needed for engineering design. v. The scientific uncertainty attached to some CCR parameters is significant, especially for extreme events with long (>20-year) return periods. This uncertainty is due in part to low confidence in the ability of climate models to simulate natural variability and changes in extreme weather phenomena (e.g., tropical cyclones) at the scale of interest. Therefore, when deriving adjustment factors for Final Engineering Design, a precautionary approach is recommended. vi. The key change regarding CCR analysis is the move from the use of historical climate records for input parameters to the Vietnam standards to using projected climate records inclusive of climate change. There is a clear risk of infrastructure under-design and life- time vulnerability in relying on historical rainfall data. The key question is the level of CCR to be adopted, which should be an economic and engineering balance between: current cost, whole-life cost, acceptable climate risk, socio-economic impact; good engineering and National Policy. Historical rainfall intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) relationships are likely to be increasingly unreliable predictors of future flood levels vii. A major assumption is that there is a close and consistent relationship between flood level and daily maximum rainfall levels, however for sites of medium to large bridges typically involving relatively large drainage basin areas the relationship between Px rainfall and Px flood level is noted as being possible weak. viii. For the more extreme events of P1 the specification of flood levels is complicated by the range of parameters that influence the flood levels including: size of the basin/ catchment, the topographic and land forms within the catchment including terrain, rock and soil composition, and current land use including the vegetation cover. In many circumstances the preferred approaches specified in the TCVN and TCN regulations are insufficient to provide the data required by designers. F Identified CRR Options for CCR NH19 Bridge Design. 9. Table 2 lists the 8 bridges identified for reconstruction under the NH19 Priority Stage. Four had been selected for design with 1 in 25 return periods (P4) and four with 1 in 100 return period (P1), however it is possible that because of the widened spans only 1 is now eligible for P4 design. 146 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution TABLE 2. Identified Bridges Existing Design Design Name of Bridge Existing Proposed Frequencies Frequencies No. bridge Centre Deck bridge span Bridge Span (As (Possible level reported) revision) 1 Bầu Sen 27.80 1x9m 1x15m P4 P4 2 Ba La 28.89 7x13m 3x33m P1 P1 3 Ta Ly 425.70 2x10m 1x33m P4 P1 4 Thầu Dầu 416.36 3x12m 2x24m P1 P1 5 Linh Nham 672.76 3x12m 2x33m P1 P1 6 Vàng 685.52 1x12m 1x33m P4 P1 7 Lệ Cần 695.45 1x11m 1x24m P4 P1 8 An Mỹ 700.24 2x12m 2x24m P1 P1 10. The CCR options considered are listed in Table 3 largely in terms of bridge deck levels and in consequence the impact of climate change on flood levels and cutting of access. Brief comments are as follows i. Option 1. This is assumed to be based on historic flood levels up to 2020, without additional overflow protection. There would be no rational CCR basis for selecting this option. ii. Option 2. This is the design as submitted at FS. There is no clear definition of the CRR level or the amounts of over-top protection iii. Option 3. This is an arbitrary increase but takes into account the apparently much lower (R1xDay) increases using the WBCP. iv. Option 4. This extreme lowest-risk CRR case is not practically feasible in terms of the cost of the high bridge deck levels as well as the social and engineering implications of approach embankments within the current project framework TABLE 3. CRR Option Summary in Terms of Deck heights Option 1 - 2020 Option 3 Assumed a 20% Increase Option 4 Extreme CCR Levels Option 2 - Feasibility Study without protection in Flow using RDC 8.5 Design Design Design Design Existing Bridge Height Bridge Height Bridge Height Bridge Height Bridge Centre above Centre above % increase Centre above Centre above Name of Deck Level Deck level existing Deck level existing in Flow on Deck level existing % increase Deck level existing % increase No. bridge (m) (m) bridge (m) (m) bridge (m) 2020 (m) bridge (m) on 2020 (m) bridge (m) on 2020 1 Bầu Sen 27.80 30.47 2.67 30.75 2.95 93 30.51 2.71 20 32.93 5.13 162 2 Ba La 28.89 33.2 4.31 33.55 4.66 11 33.43 4.54 20 35.51 6.62 224 3 Ta Ly 425.70 427.74 2.04 427.47 1.77 -17 428.01 2.31 20 430.14 4.44 284 4 Thầu Dầu 416.36 418.29 1.93 418.33 1.97 -12 418.93 2.57 20 425.17 8.81 309 5 Linh Nham 672.76 675 2.24 675.93 3.17 15 675.48 2.72 20 679.18 6.42 274 6 Vàng 685.52 689.72 4.2 689.31 3.79 -7 690.16 4.64 20 692.39 6.87 239 7 Lệ Cần 695.45 698.7 3.25 698.55 3.1 0 699.06 3.61 20 701.12 5.67 232 8 An Mỹ 700.24 702.46 2.22 702.28 2.04 -53 702.69 2.45 20 706.34 6.1 266 Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 147 G CRR Design implications of selected option for NH19 11. It is understood that TCMQ wish to reamin with the existing FS design (Options 2), largely in response to concerns as to the implication of seeking approval for additional budget allocation for CCR adaptations. The implication of this selection is that there is a significant risk of bridge overtopping within its design life. On the basis of the Consultants interpretation and analysis of future (R1XDay) increases this risk will increase as climate change impacts increase towards the end of the century (the basis of the RCP 8.5 scenario). H Option 2 Relevance to Strategic Policy 12. The national strategy clearly indicates that the Vietnam road network should be increasingly resilient to future climate impacts. It is essential therefore that the design of NH19 must be demonstrably “climate resilient”; the key issue is to what level this should be. For NH19 bridges, given the impracticality of constructing a bridge deck levels based on the extreme interpretation of the RCP8.5 scenario, it is logical to seek an option that involves a compromise of lower deck levels and overtopping protection. In this context the selection of “Option 2” could be acceptable if the additional risk is justified and mitigated as much as possible.. This justification could be by showing how the RCP 8.5 level of CCR requirements is achieved by uisng a lower alignment heightening with the remaining risk up to the RCP 8.5 level being taken care of by protection measures. Looking at in percentage terms; that is, if Option 4 bridge level are considered a 100% CCR level, then the compromise lower level design absorbs a significant part of the CCR risk with the remaining less likely risk absorbed through over-topping protection. Hence the design is shown to be complying with the RCP8.5 scenario through realistic methods. Table 4 and 5 show the percentages of risk in terms of levels and flow taken by Options 1-3. TABLE 4. Option Deck levels as a Percentage of the Extreme Model Option Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Difference Difference % of Difference % of Difference % of Existing Bridge from % of Bridge from maximum Bridge from maximum Bridge from maximum deck Deck Level existing maximum Deck Level existing CR level Deck Level existing CR level Deck Level existing CR level Bridge height (m) (m) (m) CR level (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) Bau Sen 27.8 30.47 2.67 52.0 30.75 2.95 57.5 30.51 2.71 52.8 32.93 5.13 100 Ba La 28.89 33.2 4.31 65.1 33.5 4.61 69.6 33.4 4.51 68.1 35.51 6.62 100 Ta Ly 425.7 427.74 2.04 46.4 427.47 1.77 40.2 428 2.3 52.3 430.1 4.4 100 Thau Dau 416.36 418.29 1.93 22.1 418.33 1.97 22.5 418.9 2.54 29.1 425.1 8.74 100 Linh Nham 672.76 675 2.24 34.8 675.93 3.17 49.2 675.5 2.74 42.5 679.2 6.44 100 Vang 685.52 689.72 4.2 61.0 689.31 3.79 55.1 690.2 4.68 68.0 692.4 6.88 100 Le Can 695.45 698.7 3.25 57.5 698.55 3.1 54.9 699.1 3.65 64.6 701.1 5.65 100 An My 700.24 702.46 2.22 36.6 702.28 2.04 33.7 702.7 2.46 40.6 706.3 6.06 100 148 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution TABLE 5. Option Flow Levels as a Percentage of the Extreme Model Option Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Difference Difference Difference Discharge from Discharge from % of Discharge from % of Discharge Design Q maximum % of maximum Design Q maximum maximum Design Q maximum maximum Design Q Bridge (m3/s) (m3/s) flow (m3/s) (m3/s) flow (m3/s) (m3/s) flow (m3/s) Bau Sen 20.4 33.1 38.1 39.47 14.03 73.8 24.48 29.02 45.8 53.5 Ba La 672.3 1507.2 30.8 747.18 1432.32 34.3 806.76 1372.74 37.0 2179.5 Ta Ly 75 213.3 26.0 62.19 226.11 21.6 90 198.3 31.2 288.3 Thau Dau 317.1 978.7 24.5 278.42 1017.38 21.5 380.52 915.28 29.4 1295.8 Linh Nham 282.3 772.8 26.8 240.64 814.46 22.8 338.76 716.34 32.1 1055.1 Vang 68.5 163.4 29.5 63.75 168.15 27.5 82.2 149.7 35.4 231.9 Le Can 61.4 142.5 30.1 61.17 142.73 30.0 73.68 130.22 36.1 203.9 An My 237.4 632.5 27.3 112.34 757.56 12.9 284.88 585.02 32.7 869.9 I CCR for Pavement Levels and Culvert Design 13. After bridges, the most important other concerns are: (i) culvert placements and their protection against increased water flows, (ii) road foundation strength and provisions to prevent water ingress and consequent weakening leading to pavement failure, , (iii) earthwork slope protection and (iv) provision of proper end-outfalls for lateral ditches. 14. As specified in TCVN 4054:2005 the design elevation of the road sections running along riverbanks, approaches to small bridges, culverts, and flooded fields must be at least 0.50m higher than the flood water level at the design frequency specified for the type of structure J Implications for non-priority sections – An Khe Pass. 15. The principles and issues outlined in this note are also applicable to the other sections of NH19 and in particular to the geotechnically difficult An Khe Pass. The World Bank have already (during FS) identified a number of level 4 and level 5 geotechnical hazards. These need to be comprehensively addressed using a combination of geotechnical and climate impact analyses. Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 149 K Summary 16. There is a strategic policy requirement to ensure that the design of NH19 assets, including bridges, is “climate resilient”, although the level of resilience is neither defined or detailed in terms of adaptation options in the relevant road and bridge standards. 17. The Consultants have analysed, or commissioned analyses, of future climate indices (specifically RX1Day rainfalls) using very conservative parameters, as recommended by MoNRE. These analyses appear to contrast with less conservative outputs from the WBCP using similar models. 18. The highly conservative Option 4 is not considered a practical engineering option and a compromise CCR solution involving a combination of moderately heightened alignment and overtopping protection measures (including an erosion resistant pavement for the bridge and approaches) is suggested as practical way forward. 19. Some clarification is required on the return period (Px value) to assigned to bridges that have increased spans over tjhose currently in place. 20. A compromise option such as indicted by Options 2 or 3 offer a reasonable solution provided they can be more formally justified in terms of its CRR level and storm return period, using a combination of alignment level and erosion/over-topping protection. 21. Suggested actions include a review of the extreme conservative analysis for option4 and a “what-if” or sensitivity analysis on the reduction to RCP 4.5 and/or reduction of time period to place Options 2 and 3 in terms of CRR “level”. 22. Proceed with design and costing of “overtopping protection measures”. Given the risk of overtopping will increase later in the design life of the structures some consideration could be given to this overtopping being of a time-phased cost and construction nature. This will depend to some extent on how the options 2 or 3 can be placed in terms risk level. 150 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Short Note on Climate Resilience Options for NH19 Priority Section Annex A: Clarifications on Climate Change Action Plan 1. Decision No. 2139 / QĐ-TTg dated December 5, 2011 of the Prime Minister approving the National Strategy on Climate Change; 2. Decision No. 1474 / QĐ-TTg dated October 5, 2012 of the Prime Minister promulgating the National Action Plan on climate change for the period of 2012-2020; 3. Decision No.1456/QĐ-BGTVT dated May 11, 2016 of the Minister of MoT promulgating the Action Plan for Climate Adaption and Green Growth; 4. Decision No. 622 / QĐ-TTg of the Prime Minister promulgating the National Action Plan for implementation of 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development 5. Decision No. 2707 of December 17, 2018 of MoT Minister on the MOT’s Action Plan for implementing the 2030 Agenda of Government for Sustainable Development. 6. Circular No. 70/2018/TT-BTC on management and use of recurrent budget for national target program of climate adaption and green growth. 7. Decision No.1456/QĐ-BGTVT dated May 11, 2016 of the Minister of MoT promulgating the Action Plan for Climate Adaption and Green Growth; Climate Change Adaptation in the Transport Sector 151 152 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution: Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector • E19. Promotion of biofuels for vehicles • E20. Promotion of CNG buses in transportation World Bank Support Team Final Report Hanoi, October 2021 Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution: Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector E19. Promotion of biofuels for vehicles E20. Promotion of CNG buses in transportation Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution: Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Transport Sector E19. Promotion of biofuels for vehicles E20. Promotion of CNG buses in transportation Authors: - Dr. An Minh Ngoc (University of Transport and Communications) - Diep Anh Tuan (independent expert) - Dr. Tran Minh Tu (independent expert) - Vu Anh Tuan (University of Transport and Communications) With the support of other experts, including Dr. Dinh Thi Thanh Binh (University of Transport and Communications), Dr. Huynh Duc Nguyen (Vietnamese-German University), Prof. Dr. Le Anh Tuan (Hanoi University of Science and Technology), Dr. Nguyen Thanh Tu (University of Transport and Communications), and Nguyen Van Dung (University of Transport and Communications, Campus 2). Reviewers: - John Rogers (World Bank) - Maria Cordeiro (World Bank) Hanoi, October 2021 154 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Contents Acronyms.........................................................................................................................................................................161 Summary..........................................................................................................................................................................162 References........................................................................................................................................................................166 I. Introduction..................................................................................................................167 1.1 Background.....................................................................................................................................167 1.2 Objectives........................................................................................................................................169 1.3 Scope of the Study........................................................................................................................169 1.3.1 E19. Promote the use of biofuels for vehicles.....................................................................169 1.3.2 E20. Promote the use of CNG buses in transportation....................................................169 1.4 Calculation Method......................................................................................................................170 2. Assessment of Biofuel Deployment Context According to NDC Commitments and Recommendations for Biofuel Development Scenarios ..........172 2.1 Vietnam’s Efforts and Achievements in Deploying Biofuels in Transportation.......172 2.1.1 Existing policies to promote biofuels in Vietnam..............................................................172 2.1.2 Contributions to GHG emissions mitigation ......................................................................177 2.2 Analysis of the Trend of Biofuels in the Period from 2021 to 2030 ............................182 2.2.1 International experience with biofuel promotion............................................................182 2.2.2 Orientation for development of biofuel supply.................................................................185 2.2.3 Biofuel demand..............................................................................................................................189 2.3 Scenario for Promoting Biofuels..............................................................................................193 2.3.1 Consultation with stakeholders ..............................................................................................193 2.3.2 Scenario recommendation........................................................................................................195 3. Assessment of the Use of CNG Buses According to NDC Commitments and Recommendations for CNG Bus Development Scenarios .................................199 3.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................199 3.2 Transport Sector’s Efforts and Achievements in Deploying CNG Buses....................200 3.2.1 Existing policies to promote CNG buses in Vietnam........................................................200 3.2.2 Contributions to GHG emissions mitigation ......................................................................204 3.3 Analysis of the Trend of CNG Buses in the Period from 2021 to 2030.......................204 3.3.1 International experience in CNG bus promotion..............................................................204 3.3.2 Development of natural gas supply.......................................................................................208 3.3.3 Increase in natural gas demand...............................................................................................210 3.4 Orientation for Development of CNG Buses.......................................................................213 3.4.1 Agencies’ targets and road map..............................................................................................213 3.4.2 Demand for CNG buses from transport operators............................................................215 3.4.3 Advantages and disadvantages of CNG buses compared to conventional and electric buses..............................................................................................216 3.4.4 Scenario recommendation........................................................................................................220 Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 155 4. BAU Development........................................................................................................224 4.1 Methodology of BAU Development.......................................................................................224 4.2 Input Data of BAU Scenario.......................................................................................................225 4.3 Growth Projection in the Transport Sector Under BAU...................................................226 4.3.1 Projection of passenger-kilometers traveled......................................................................226 4.3.2 Projection of freight-ton-kilometers transported.............................................................227 4.4 Total Road Vehicles.......................................................................................................................228 4.5 Fuel Consumption.........................................................................................................................228 4.5.1 Total fuel consumption...............................................................................................................228 4.5.2 Gasoline consumption by road vehicles ..............................................................................229 4.5.3 Diesel consumption by road vehicles....................................................................................230 4.6 CO2 Emissions from Road Transport......................................................................................231 5. Policy Scenarios and Road Maps for the Use of Biofuels in Vietnam.......................234 5.1 Fuel Consumption.........................................................................................................................234 5.1.1 Gasoline consumption................................................................................................................234 5.1.2 Ethanol consumption..................................................................................................................235 5.2 GHG Emissions...............................................................................................................................235 5.3 Comparison between Biofuel Scenario of NDC 2020 and World Bank 2019 Report ....................................................................................................................................236 5.3.1 Comparison with conventional gasoline and ethanol consumption.........................237 5.3.2 Comparison of GHG emissions.................................................................................................238 5.4 Road Map for the Use of Biofuels in Vietnam .....................................................................239 6 Policy Scenarios and Road Maps for the Development of CNG Bus Fleets in Major Cities in Vietnam............................................................................................245 6.1 Scenario Description....................................................................................................................245 6.2 Fuel Consumption.........................................................................................................................245 6.2.1 Diesel consumption.....................................................................................................................245 6.2.2 CNG consumption........................................................................................................................246 6.3 GHG Emissions...............................................................................................................................247 6.4 Comparison of CNG Bus Promotion Scenario in NDC-Deep Dive and Vietnam’s NDC Report 2020......................................................................................................248 6.4.1 Comparison of diesel consumption.......................................................................................248 6.4.2 Comparison of GHG emissions.................................................................................................249 6.4.3 Comparison of the number of CNG buses...........................................................................250 6.5 Road Map for the Development of CNG Bus Fleets in Vietnam...................................250 6.5.1 Period from 2021 to 2025...........................................................................................................251 6.5.2 Period from 2026 to 2030...........................................................................................................251 7 Conclusions and Policy Recommendations...............................................................253 Appendix......................................................................................................................................255 156 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution LIST OF TABLES Table 0.1. CO2 Emissions Reduction through Biofuel Penetration........................................................163 Table 0.2. CO2 Emissions Reduction through CNG Bus Penetration ...................................................163 Table 1.1. Reduction of CO2 Emissions by Two Mitigation Options Under Domestic Resources ...............................................................................................................................................168 Table 2.1. Targets for Production of Ethanol, Gasoline E5, and Diesel B5 in Vietnam.....................173 Table 2.2. Target for Biofuel Production in Vietnam....................................................................................173 Table 2.3. Road Map for Biogasoline Blending in Vietnam.......................................................................173 Table 2.4. Investment Incentives for Production of Renewable Energy in Vietnam........................175 Table 2.5. Export and Import Tariffs on Cassavas.........................................................................................176 Table 2.6. Import Tax on Ethanol........................................................................................................................176 Table 2.7. Taxes on Biogasoline..........................................................................................................................176 Table 2.8. Existing Ethanol Plants in Vietnam................................................................................................178 Table 2.9. Supply of Ethanol for Biofuel Blending........................................................................................178 Table 2.10. Biofuel Blending Targets and Mandates......................................................................................184 Table 2.11. Approved Targets for the Share of Biogasoline in 2021–30.................................................185 Table 2.12. Approved Blending Rates.................................................................................................................186 Table 2.13. Barriers Facing Ethanol Producers in Vietnam..........................................................................188 Table 2.14. Recommendations for the Share of Biogasoline......................................................................194 Table 2.15. Recommendations for the Ethanol Blend Rate.........................................................................194 Table 2.16. Recommendations for the Use of Biofuels in Transport Subsectors ................................195 Table 3.1. National Policies Related to the Development of Public Transport..................................200 Table 3.2. Sectoral Policies Related to the Development of Public Transport in Vietnam.............202 Table 3.3. Policies to Support Public Transport Activities.........................................................................203 Table 3.4. Statistics of CNG Buses in Vietnam................................................................................................204 Table 3.5. Combined Analysis of State Support Measures for the NGV Industry in the Leading National NGV Markets.......................................................................................................207 Table 3.6. Gas Pipeline Network in Vietnam, 2019.......................................................................................209 Table 3.7. LNG Import Terminal Construction Projects in Vietnam.......................................................210 Table 3.8. CNG Filling Stations in Vietnam, 2019..........................................................................................212 Table 3.9. CNG Production Facilities in Vietnam, 2019...............................................................................212 Table 3.10. Recommendations for the Share of Low-Carbon Vehicles...................................................214 Table 3.11. Potential to Expand the CNG Bus Market in Vietnam.............................................................214 Table 3.12. Policy Incentives for Transport Operators in Vietnam............................................................214 Table 3.13. Potential Demand for CNG Buses, Penetration Rate...............................................................216 Table 3.14. Financial Results for Medium-Sized (8 meters) Buses ...........................................................218 Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 157 Table 3.15. Financial Results for Large-Sized (12 meters) Buses ..............................................................219 Table 3.16. Projection of CNG Buses in Five Cities and One Province in Vietnam...............................220 Table 3.17. Development of CNG Buses versus Updated NDC..................................................................221 Table 3.18. Supportive Policy Tools.....................................................................................................................221 Table 4.1. General Data..........................................................................................................................................225 Table 4.2. Road Data...............................................................................................................................................226 Table 4.3. Total Fuel Consumption in Vietnam .............................................................................................229 Table 4.4. Gasoline Consumption by Road Vehicles in Vietnam.............................................................229 Table 4.5. Share of Gasoline Consumption by Road Vehicles in Vietnam...........................................229 Table 4.6. Diesel Consumption by Road Vehicles in Vietnam..................................................................230 Table 4.7. Share of Diesel Consumption by Road Vehicles in Vietnam ................................................230 Table 4.8. CO2 Emissions from Road Transport in Vietnam......................................................................231 Table 4.9. Share of CO2 Emissions from Road Transport in Vietnam....................................................231 Table 5.1. Proportion of Biofuel in Road Transport in Vietnam...............................................................234 Table 5.2. Total Conventional Gasoline Consumption in Scenarios .....................................................234 Table 5.3. Total Ethanol Consumption ............................................................................................................235 Table 5.4. CO2 Emissions of the Scenarios......................................................................................................236 Table 5.5. Conventional Gasoline Consumption Comparison ...............................................................237 Table 5.6. Ethanol Consumption Comparison..............................................................................................238 Table 5.7. CO2 Emissions Comparison ............................................................................................................239 Table 5.8. Summary of the NDC-Deep Dive Scenario.................................................................................239 Table 6.1. CNG Bus Demand Scenario Description.....................................................................................245 Table 6.2. Diesel Consumption by Public Transport in Vietnam.............................................................246 Table 6.3. CNG Consumption by Public Transport in Vietnam ...............................................................246 Table 6.5. Diesel Consumption of the Scenarios..........................................................................................249 Table 6.6. CO2 Emissions in the Scenarios......................................................................................................249 Table 6.7. Number of CNG Buses in the Scenarios.......................................................................................250 Table C.1. Annual Projection for PKT.................................................................................................................259 Table C.2. Elasticity to GDP per Capita and GDP...........................................................................................261 158 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1. Overall Framework Flow...................................................................................................................170 Figure 2.1. Amount of Ethanol Used to Blend Biogasoline........................................................................178 Figure 2.2. Mineral Gasoline Supply in Vietnam.............................................................................................179 Figure 2.3. Volume of Biogasoline Production in Vietnam.........................................................................180 Figure 2.4. Share of Actual Biogasoline Production by Key Traders in Vietnam.................................180 Figure 2.5. Amount of Biogasoline Production: Actual versus First Scenario in VN-NDC 2020....................................................................................................................................181 Figure 2.6. Ratio of E5 Gasoline Consumption: Actual versus First Scenario in VN-NDC 2020......181 Figure 2.7. Gasoline Prices in Vietnam: E5 RON92 versus RON95............................................................182 Figure 2.8. Annual Global Investments in Biofuels........................................................................................183 Figure 2.9. Awareness of the Availability of Gasoline E5 RON92..............................................................189 Figure 2.10. Usage of Gasoline E5 RON92 When Refueling..........................................................................190 Figure 2.11. Main Reasons Why Interviewees Used Biogasoline E5 RON92...........................................191 Figure 2.12. Main Reasons Why Interviewees Did Not Use Biogasoline E5 RON92.............................191 Figure 2.13. Average Score of Factors Influencing People’s Willingness to Use Biogasoline............192 Figure 2.14. Average Score of Supportive Policies for Biofuels...................................................................193 Figure 3.1. Development of NGVs Around the World...................................................................................205 Figure 3.2. Top 10 Countries with the Largest NGV Fleet............................................................................205 Figure 3.3. Gas Transportation and Distribution Network in Vietnam...................................................208 Figure 3.4. Final Energy Consumption in Vietnam Between 2010 and 2019.......................................210 Figure 3.5. Vietnam’s Natural Gas Demand Forecast....................................................................................211 Figure 3.6. CNG Filling Stations and Production Facilities in Southern Vietnam................................213 Figure 3.7. Perceived Disadvantages of CNG Buses......................................................................................215 Figure 3.8. Emissions of Pollutants from 8-Meter Urban Buses................................................................217 Figure 3.9. Total Cost of Ownership of Medium Buses................................................................................218 Figure 3.10. Total Cost of Ownership of Large Buses......................................................................................219 Figure 4.1. GHG Emissions Calculation Method in BAU...............................................................................224 Figure 4.2. Passenger-Kilometers Travelled (PKT) in Vietnam...................................................................227 Figure 4.3. Freight-Ton-Kilometers Transported (FTKT) in Vietnam........................................................227 Figure 4.4. Total Vehicles in Road Transport in Vietnam..............................................................................228 Figure 4.5. CO2 Emissions from Road Transport in Vietnam......................................................................232 Figure 5.1. Total Conventional Gasoline Consumption in Scenarios......................................................235 Figure 5.2. CO2 Emissions of the Scenarios......................................................................................................236 Figure 5.3. Ethanol Consumption Comparison..............................................................................................238 Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 159 Figure 5.4. Biofuels Road Map for the NDC-Deep Dive Scenario (Part I)...............................................243 Figure 5.5. Biofuels Road Map for the NDC-Deep Dive Scenario (Part II)..............................................243 Figure 6.1. Diesel Consumption by Public Transport in Vietnam.............................................................246 Figure 6.2. CNG Consumption by Public Transport in Vietnam................................................................247 Figure 6.3. Total CO2 Emissions from Public Transport in Vietnam.........................................................248 Figure 6.4. CNG Buses Road Map 2021–30.......................................................................................................252 Figure C.1. Vietnam’s Official Population Growth (2015 to 2050).............................................................260 Figure C.2. Vietnam’s Official GDP Growth (2015 to 2050)..........................................................................260 160 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Acronyms BAU business as usual BMU Federal Ministry of the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety CAGR compound annual growth rate CNG compressed natural gas DOF Department of Finance DONRE Department of Natural Resources and Environment DOT Department of Transport DPI Department of Planning and Investment GHG greenhouse gas GSO General Statistics Office of Vietnam EFFECT Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool IKI International Climate Initiative LPG liquefied petroleum gas MOIT Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam MOST Ministry of Science and Technology of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam MOT Ministry of Transport of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam NDC Nationally Determined Contribution TraCS Advancing Transport Climate Strategies UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change VNEEP Vietnam Energy Efficiency Program Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 161 Summary In Vietnam, the transport sector contributed 18 percent of energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2014, mostly from road transport. The adoption of biofuel blended vehicles, natural gas vehicles (NGVs), and electric vehicles (EVs) is an important strategy to reduce emissions from the transportation sector. In the first stage of its low-carbon transport strategy, Vietnam has set a target of adding 623 compressed natural gas (CNG) buses and an average annual output of 145,000 cubic meters (m3) of ethanol for transportation by 2030. The Ministry of Transport (MOT), which is responsible for managing the transport sector, promotes the use of clean energy to mitigate GHG emissions and local pollutants. Although the plan to promote CNG buses and biofuel usage is established at the central level, its success depends on the local governments because they have to develop a regulatory framework to enable the adoption of clean-energy vehicles and deploy public charging infrastructure. Vietnam has approximately 70 million vehicles (NTSC 2020). Two-wheelers account for more than 90 percent of the vehicles. In 2019, E5 gasoline accounted for 38 percent of the total gasoline consumption. Public buses were the first adopters of CNG. In 2020, 672 CNG buses accounted for 5 percent of Vietnam’s bus fleet. These outcomes have already met the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitments for emissions reductions using domestic financial resources by 2030. However, give the projected increase in fuel consumption, additional efforts are required to raise the level of these targets by 2030. This study simulates the impacts expected from the implementation of the demand/supply side policy instruments on biogasoline and CNG bus penetration in Vietnam. The biogasoline market share and number of CNG buses are evaluated in two scenarios: the business-as-usual (BAU) and the mitigation reduction (NDC-Deep Dive; NDC-DD) scenarios. The BAU scenario includes all policies and interventions in the biofuel and public transport subsector that were enacted up to and including the base year of 2014, with no additional deployment of policies and measures during the period from 2014 to 2030. The NDC-DD scenario analyses the impacts of policy interventions promulgated after 2014 and additional policy measures that were deemed necessary to deliver on NDC targets (mostly policies that are already in the government’s pipeline). Scenarios are presented in Tables 0.1 and 0.2. For biofuels, the scenario shows that the proportion of E5 gasoline will tend to decrease slightly in the period from 2020 to 2024 and decrease to 30 percent by 2024. E10 gasoline will be used in the road transport sector by 2025. It is assumed that the amount of ethanol used for E10 gasoline in 2025 will be equal to the amount of ethanol used for E5 gasoline in 2024. The share of E5 gasoline is expected to be 30 percent in 2024, so it can be inferred that the share of E10 gasoline will be 15 percent by 2025. The share of E10 will gradually increase to 30 percent by 2030. 162 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Regarding CNG buses, the scenario indicates that tax incentives, subsidies, and availability of filling stations are the most important tools to promote fleet size development. By implementing the subsidy mechanism and the expansion of the CNG filling station system, the size of the CNG bus fleet is expected to reach 2,200 units by 2030. With additional efforts, the impact of biofuels would be improved compared to the NDC commitment and World Bank’s 2019 report, 1.03 percent CO2 emissions reduction compared to 0.6 percent in the NDC (Oh et al. 2019) by 2030. The impact is more significant in the long term (after 2030). The reduction in GHG emissions would be even higher if the use of E10 gasoline is promoted. TABLE 0.1. CO2 Emissions Reduction through Biofuel Penetration 2014 2020 2025 2030 BAU 26,416 38,002 52,404 72,053 Emissions reduction scenario (NDC-DD) CO2 emissions 26,416 37,757 52,126 71,315 % CO2 emissions reduction (compared to BAU) 0.00% 0.65% 0.53% 1.03% NDC scenario CO2 emissions 26,416 37,656 51,963 71,566 % CO2 emissions reduction (compared to BAU) 0.00% 0.92% 0.85% 0.68% Source: Study team. Note: This calculation does not include the GHG emissions derived from producing and transporting the ethanol, and only takes into account CO2 emissions of road transport. Data presented in thousand tons. The impact of CNG bus penetration would also be more significant compared to the NDC commitment and the World Bank’s 2019 report (Oh et al. 2019) by 2030. Under the moderate scenario, 47,900 tons CO2 (tCO2) will be avoided in 2030, compared to 4,300 tCO2 under the NDC commitment and the World Bank’s 2019 report. TABLE 0.2. CO2 Emissions Reduction through CNG Bus Penetration 2014 2020 2025 2030 BAU 686.6 1,334.9 1,767.4 2,133.5 Emissions reduction scenario (NDC-DD) CO2 emissions 686.6 1,321.7 1,736.5 2,085.6 % CO2 emissions reduction (compared to BAU) 0.0% 1.0% 1.8% 2.3% NDC scenario CO2 emissions 686.6 1,321.7 1,757.9 2,129.2 % CO2 emissions reduction (compared to BAU) 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% Source: Study team. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 163 Note: CO2 emissions in these scenarios only consider public transport. Data presented in thousand tons. In order to implement the road map on biofuel and CNG bus deployment, this study recommends the following policy interventions that can be applied to promote the growth of clean-energy vehicles in Vietnam: * Feedstock supply for the production of ethanol: - The period from 2021 to 2025: Retain existing orientation policies for volume and plantation area of cassava (i.e., 10–11 million tons and 500 hectares, respectively) as well as incentives for cassava farming and processing in accordance with Decree No. 55/2015/NĐ-CP on “Credit Policy for Agricultural and Rural Development” and Decision No. 68/2013/QĐ-TTg on “Supportive Policy for Mitigation of Losses in Agricultural Sector.” Additionally, it is necessary to formulate a plan for a dedicated feedstock area for domestic ethanol plants. - The period from 2026 to 2030: Alternative feedstock (e.g., industrial crops) must be considered when demand for ethanol is increased. In existing policies, only cassava is selected as feedstock for the production of ethanol. It is necessary to formulate and promulgate policies regarding alternative feedstock for the production of ethanol in Vietnam. * Supply of ethanol: The mechanism of linking farming and processing to consumption of cassava products should be formulated by utilizing incentives in accordance with Decree No. 98/2018/NĐ-CP on “Incentive Policies for Development of Linkage in Production and Consumption of Agricultural Productions.” This may lead to a stable feedstock supply for domestic ethanol plants. Additionally, there will be a growth of demand for ethanol as a result of the shift from E5 gasoline to E10 gasoline. Existing ethanol plants need to scale up capacity (for plants with stable operations) or restart their operations (for plants with discontinuous operation due to financial loss). Hence, it is necessary to provide loans with preferential interest rates to existing ethanol plants for capacity expansion or reoperation. * Biogasoline supply: Key traders of gasoline need to invest and expand the capacity of the blending system in response to the shift from E5 gasoline to E10 gasoline. In order to encourage these traders to expand the capacity of the blending system, incentives, such as an exemption from import tax on machines and equipment used for blending biogasoline, should be provided. The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment (MONRE) must promulgate the list of imported machinery, equipment, vehicles, tools, and supplies used for environmental protection in accordance with Decree No. 134/2016/NĐ-CP “Guidelines for the Law on Export and Import Tax.” * Biogasoline consumption: The Vietnamese government should provide purchasing incentives that can further increase the price gap between less-expensive biogasoline and conventional gasoline, such as reducing value added tax (VAT), Environmental Protection Tax (EPT), and Special Consumption Tax (SCT). The policy recommendations for achieving 2,199 CNG buses in urban fleets by 2030 are: 164 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution * Increase investment in public filling station infrastructure through private partnerships. Policies related to investment in CNG filling stations need to facilitate viable business models with attractive payback periods to attract private investment * Provide solutions to encourage investment in CNG buses or create a differentiating advantage between investing in CNG buses and buses using diesel fuel; for example, providing tax exemptions if enterprises invest in CNG buses * Establish a mandatory fuel economy standard to reduce transport emissions while CNG buses are not yet competitive. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 165 References NTSC (National Traffic Safety Committee). 2020. Statistics of Registered Vehicles in Vietnam. Oh, Jung Eun, Maria Cordeiro, John Allen Rogers, Khanh Nguyen, Daniel Bongardt, Ly Tuyet Dang, and Vu Anh Tuan. 2019. “Addressing Climate Change in Transport: Volume 1: Pathway to Low-Carbon Transport.” Vietnam Transport Knowledge Series, World Bank, Hanoi. https://openknowledge. worldbank.org/handle/10986/32411. 166 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution I. Introduction 1.1 Background Per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Vietnam are moderate in absolute terms compared to the global average. However, even though the economy’s carbon intensity is declining, increasing per capita income is driving the demand for energy consumption, which would lead to continued growth in carbon intensity over the coming decades. Vietnam is the thirteenth most carbon-intensive economy globally and the fourth among low- and middle-income countries in East Asia (Olivier et al. 2016). From 2000 to 2015, CO2 emissions nearly quadrupled. A fast-growing transport sector provides a significant contribution to rising GHG emissions. Transport GHG emissions have been rising with increasing motorization and are expected to more than double from 38.5 million tons to 89.1 million tons between 2016 to 2030. Freight transport increased by more than the average annual 12 percent between 1995 and 2006, and road transportation volume tripled from 2005 to 2013 (GSO 2014). Car and motorcycle ownership grew by 122 percent and 233 percent, respectively, during the first decade of the twenty-first century.1 Several studies estimate that passenger and freight transport demand will increase by 9 to 10 times by 2030 from 2005 levels. Vietnam is committed to addressing climate change mitigation challenges. Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) sets GHG emissions reduction targets for the post-2020 period. Vietnam’s first NDC established GHG emissions reduction targets of 8 percent below business as usual (BAU) between 2021 and 2030, and up to 25 percent reduction, conditional on international support. In accordance with Decision 1/CP.21 of COP21, requesting parties to communicate or update the NDC by 2020, Vietnam reviewed and updated its NDC. In the revised NDC, Vietnam committed to a 9 percent GHG emissions reduction by 2030 compared to BAU, with domestic resources. This contribution can be raised to 27 percent GHG emissions reduction against BAU, with international support.2 In the updated NDC report for 2020, measures to mitigate GHG emissions from the transport sector using only domestic resources include: improving energy efficiency and efficiency, reducing fuel consumption; modal shift from private to public transport; modal shift from road freight transport to inland waterway and coastal waterway; and fuel shift to encourage the development of electric motorcycles, promoting the use of biofuels, CNG gas, and other clean fuels. The World Bank, in collaboration with the GIZ with contributions and support from its partners, has provided technical assistance to Vietnam’s Ministry of Transport (MOT) for the purpose of delivering a vision and strategies to reduce the carbon footprint of the transport sector. The results of the analysis are presented in the World Bank’s Working Paper “Addressing Climate Change in Transportation: Volume 1: A Pathway to Low-Carbon Transport” (Oh et al. 2019). The results of this study have significantly supported the update of NDC 2020. In the World Bank study, four scenarios were developed and analyzed: BAU and mitigation scenarios 1, 2, and 3. Scenario 1 includes some policies and measures that would be implemented only with domestic resources; scenario 2 is Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 167 confined within the scope of the policies but would require international sources; and scenario 3 includes ambitious measures outside the existing policies. Results show that under BAU conditions, transport sector CO2 emissions would be 89.1 million tons in 2030. However, under the mitigation scenario 1, the sector’s CO2 emissions in 2030 would reduce by 8 million tons CO2—a 9 percent reduction compared to BAU achieved through the combination of the following measures: • E15. Improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency • E16. Modal shift from private to public transport • E17. Freight model shift from road to inland and coastal waterways • E18. Promotion of electric two-wheelers • E19. Promotion of biofuels • E20. Promotion of CNG buses Among the above mitigation measures, the interventions “E19 – Promotion of biofuels” and “E20 – Promotion of CNG buses” are relatively well quantified in the emissions reduction target. Specifically, shifts toward lower-carbon fuels (compressed natural gas, or CNG, used in 623 urban buses, ethanol E5 in 40 percent of gasoline sales up to the supply cap for ethanol of 145,000 m3) reduce the sector’s CO2 emissions by 3.55 million tons of CO2 during the period from 2015 to 2030. Table 1.1 illustrates the results of the two measures. TABLE 1.1. Reduction of CO2 Emissions by Two Mitigation Options Under Domestic Resources Mitigation Measures 2014 2020 2025 2030 Cumulative Reduction 2014–30 E19. Promotion of biofuels 0 256 269 267 3,487 E20. Promotion of CNG buses 0 5 5 3 64 Total 0 261 274 270 3,551 Source: Oh et al. 2019. Note: Data in thousand tCO2. Measures to reduce GHG emissions using domestic resources are currently being reviewed by the MOT to assess the progress and efforts of the transport sector in implementing the NDC commitments as well as consider the possibility of further promotion of GHG emissions reduction in the transport sector. In parallel with other projects (e.g., the VN-SIPA project that conducts an assessment of the modal shift from private to public transport funded by GIZ), the MOT continues to conduct research to concretize two measures—E19 and E20—on the basis of updating input data, deploying detailed surveys on biofuel supply and demand and CNG buses, and is developing further policy road maps to promote the deployment of biofuels and CNG buses. 168 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution 1.2 Objectives The overall goal of this consultancy is the provision of technical assistance to the MOT to identify deployment measures at the national or local level, as appropriate, and update the estimation of GHG emissions for: The promotion of biofuel for vehicles The promotion of CNG buses in transportation. The specific objectives of the study include: Evaluation of the implementation results of measures E19 and E20 in the period from 2015 to 2020 Analysis of the trends and prospects of biofuels and CNG buses on the basis of domestic and international experience analysis, supply-demand analysis from policy and market perspectives Calculation and comparison of GHG emissions between the proposed scenario (NDC-DD) and the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and the NDC scenario using the domestic resource (or scenario 1 in the World Bank’s 2019 study) Proposal of an implementation road map to ensure the promotion of biofuels and CNG buses. 1.3 Scope of the Study As a stated objective, the scope of this study will be limited to the use of biofuels for road motor vehicles and the use of CNG buses in public transport. The following section describes the main tasks and contents of the activities and the method of performing the tasks. 1.3.1 E19. Promote the use of biofuels for vehicles - Subjects: all types of road motor vehicles using gasoline fuel (excluding vehicles running on diesel fuel) - Coverage: nationwide - Time period: calculate and develop a road map for implementation to 2030 - Number of scenarios: only one scenario is mentioned with domestic resources 1.3.2 E20. Promote the use of CNG buses in transportation - Subjects: CNG buses - Coverage: five central cities (Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Da Nang, Hai Phong, and Can Tho) and one province with high potential to use CNG buses (Binh Duong) - Time horizon: calculate and build a road map for implementation to 2030 - Number of scenarios: only one scenario is mentioned with domestic resources Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 169 1.4 Calculation Method The method used is modeling with the EFFECT software tool—this tool was previously used to prepare NDC reports of the transport sector—in which computational steps are simulated according to the sequence of traffic activities using a bottom-up microsimulation technique. The general socioeconomic input data system collected and updated from available data sources and related projects is currently being implemented by the MOT and line ministries. The data system related to the supply and demand of biofuels and CNG buses is collected from existing statistical data sources, combined with actual surveys (interviews with stakeholders). In this study, two scenarios were developed and analyzed—BAU and mitigation scenario with domestic resources. BAU includes the base year of 2014, which has been uniformly used across the updated NDC and relevant projects. The mitigation scenario consists of policies and measures in the existing master plan and would be implemented only with domestic resources. The mitigation scenario in this study (the so-called NDC-Deep Dive scenario) would be compared to scenario 1 in the World Bank’s 2019 study and the scenario using the domestic resources in the updated NDC to assess the more ambitious level of the transport sector. The targets of GHG emissions reduction through the mitigation measures and policies will be discussed in internal consultation between the World Bank team, the MOT, and other stakeholders. FIGURE 1.1. Overall Framework Flow Source: Study team. 170 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution REFERENCES GSO (General Statistics Office of Vietnam). 2014. Statistical Yearbook of Vietnam. Hanoi, Vietnam: General Statistics Office of Vietnam. Oh, Jung Eun, Maria Cordeiro, John Allen Rogers, Khanh Nguyen, Daniel Bongardt, Ly Tuyet Dang, and Vu Anh Tuan. 2019. “Addressing Climate Change in Transport: Volume 1: Pathway to Low-Carbon Transport.” Vietnam Transport Knowledge Series, World Bank, Hanoi. https://openknowledge. worldbank.org/handle/10986/32411. Olivier, Jos G.J., Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Marilena Muntean, and Jeroen A.H.W. Peters. 2016. Trends in Global CO2 Emissions: 2016 Report. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Directorate Energy, Transport & Climate; The Hague, N etherlands: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. NOTES 1 One million cars and 20 million motorcycles at the end of 2010, an increase from 450,000 cars and 6 million motorcycles at the end of 2000. 2 For more information see UNFCCC’s NDC Registry at https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 171 2. Assessment of Biofuel Deployment Context According to NDC Commitments and Recommendations for Biofuel Development Scenarios 2.1 Vietnam’s Efforts and Achievements in Deploying Biofuels in Transportation 2.1.1 Existing policies to promote biofuels in Vietnam In Vietnam, biofuels are defined as one type of renewable energy in accordance with Clause 1, Article 43 of Law No. 55/2014/QH13 on Environmental Protection dated June 23, 2014. Generally, national energy development strategies set a long-term target for the share of renewable energy in the total primary energy supply. In addition, the government of Vietnam approved “the National Energy Development Strategy to 2020, Vision to 2050” by Decision No. 1855/QĐ-TTg dated December 27, 2007; according to the strategy, the share of renewable energy will be 5 percent as of 2020. For the period from 2021 to 2030, the Political Bureau of Vietnam promulgated Resolution No. 55-NQ/ TW on “Strategic Orientation for National Energy Development to 2030, Vision to 2045” in February 2020; according to the resolution, the share of renewable energy will reach 15 percent to 20 percent of the total primary energy supply as of 2030. It reveals that biofuels have been considered as one of the key policy options by the government of Vietnam. The fundamental biofuel policy direction was provided in the prime minister’s Decision No. 177/2007/QĐ-TTg on November 20, 2007, and Decision No. 53/2012/QĐ-TTg on November 22, 2012. Following these decisions, the government of Vietnam issued policies and regulations in various aspects, such as feedstock supply, ethanol supply, biogasoline supply, and consumption. The outline of such policies and regulations is provided in the following sections. 2.1.1.1 Policies for biofuel production and supply On November 20, 2007, the government of Vietnam promulgated Decision No. 177/2007/QĐ-TTg on “Approval of Project on Development of Biofuels to 2015, Vision to 2025.” According to this decision, there are several targets in three main aspects, including: volume of ethanol and vegetable oils, volume of gasoline E5 and diesel B5, and ratio of E5 and B5 to total national demand for gasoline and diesel. Those targets are used for the government authorization of projects that contribute for the development of biofuels. The targets are summarized in Table 2.1. 172 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution TABLE 2.1. Targets for Production of Ethanol, Gasoline E5, and Diesel B5 in Vietnam Target Timeline 2010 2015 2025 Volume of ethanol & vegetable oils (thousand tons) - 250 1,800 Volume of gasoline E5 and diesel B5 (thousand tons) 150 5,000 - Ratio of E5 & B5 to total national demand for gasoline and diesel 0.4% 1% 5% Source: Decision No. 177/2007/QĐ-TTg. Additionally, the government of Vietnam issued Decision No. 2068/QĐ-TTg on “Approval of the Development Strategy for Renewable Energy of Vietnam to 2030, Vision to 2050” in November 2015. By 2050, the volume of biofuels is expected to reach 10.5 million tonnes of oil equivalent (TOE), meeting 25 percent of total fuel demand in the transport sector. It can be seen that Decision No. 177/2007/QĐ-TTg focuses on gasoline E5 and diesel B5 in particular, while Decision No. 2068/QĐ- TTg only mentions the target for biofuels in general. TABLE 2.2. Target for Biofuel Production in Vietnam Timeline Criteria 2020 2030 2050 Volume of biofuels (thousand TOE) 800 3,700 10,500 Ratio of biofuels to total fuel demand in transport sector 5% 13% 25% Source: Decision No. 2068/QĐ-TTg. In 2012, the government of Vietnam issued Decision No. 53/2012/QĐ-TTg on “Roadmap for Biofuel Blending.” According to Article 3 of this decision, four types of biofuels are commercialized, including gasoline (E5 and E10) and diesel (B5 and B10). On the one hand, road maps for selling gasoline E5 and E10 are mentioned. Specifically, gasoline E5 will be sold nationally from December 1, 2015, onward, while nationwide sales of gasoline E10 will take place from December 1, 2017, onward. On the other hand, the decision did not specify the road map for commercialization of diesel B5 and B10. TABLE 2.3. Road Map for Biogasoline Blending in Vietnam Type of Applicability Biofuel Timeline Area Gasoline E5 From December 1, 2014 5 centrally run cities: Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Hai Phong, Da Nang, and Can Tho, and 2 provinces: Ba Ria-Vung Tau and Quang Ngai From December 1, 2015 Nationwide Gasoline E10 From December 1, 2016 5 centrally-run cities: Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Hai Phong, Da Nang, and Can Tho, and 2 provinces: Ba Ria-Vung Tau and Quang Ngai From December 1, 2017 Nationwide Source: Decision No. 53/2012/QĐ-TTg. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 173 Complying with Decision No. 53/2012/QĐ-TTg, biogasoline E5 RON 92 was sold from December 1, 2014, in seven cities and provinces, and its nationwide commercialization was started from December 1, 2015. To push the implementation of the biofuel road map, the government of Vietnam issued Directive No. 23/CT-TTg dated August 31, 2015, on “Reinforcing the Use, Blending and Distribution of Bio-gasoline Following Decision No. 53/2012/QĐ-TTg.” According to the directive, gasoline traders must do the following tasks: • Key gasoline traders (including gasoline exporters, importers, and producers) must accelerate the construction of blending systems and expand the network of retail stations for E5 gasoline. The target is that at least 50 percent of key traders’ retail stations can sell E5 gasoline in five cities (Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Hai Phong, Da Nang, and Can Tho) and two provinces (Quang Ngai and Ba Ria-Vung Tau) by November 30, 2015. • Gasoline distributors, general agents, retail agents, and retail franchisers must expand the network of retail stations for E5 gasoline. The target is that at least 50 percent of distributors and agents’ retail stations can sell E5 gasoline in five cities (Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Hai Phong, Da Nang, and Can Tho and two provinces (Quang Ngai and Ba Ria-Vung Tau) by November 30, 2015. It should be noted that both gasoline RON 92 and biogasoline E5 RON 92 existed before January 1, 2018. However, the government office of Vietnam issued Notification No. 255/TB-VPCP dated June 6, 2017. According to the notification, a business of gasoline RON 92 shall be banned from January 1, 2018. The government of Vietnam has allowed only biogasoline E5 RON 92 and gasoline RON 95 to be commercialized nationwide. Up to now, only gasoline E5 is available to customers, but there has been no commercialization of gasoline E10 as well as diesel B5 and B10. 2.1.1.2 Incentives to promote biofuels Following Decision No. 177/2007/QĐ-TTg and Decision No. 53/2012/QD-TTg, public agencies of Vietnam formulated supporting policies for the promotion of biogasoline usage. These polciies can be summarized into four types: feedstock supply, ethanol supply, biogasoline production, and end users. Within the scope of this report, we present the incentives for ethanol and biofuel production only. * Investment incentives From 2015 to 2020, production of renewable energy, clean energy, is in the list of business lines that are eligible to receive investment incentives, according to Point b, Clause 1, Article 16 of Investment Law No. 67/2014/QH13 dated November 26, 2014 (referred to as the 2014 Investment Law). This regulation was retained when the National Assembly of Vietnam enacted Investment Law No. 61/2020/QH14 on June 17, 2020 (referred to as the 2020 Investment Law). The 2020 Investment Law came into effect on January 1, 2021. Production of ethanol and biogasoline may benefit from investment incentives since ethanol and biogasoline are considered renewable or clean energy. According to Clause 1, Article 15 of the 2020 Investment Law, there are four types of investment incentives: • Incentives for enterprise income tax • Exemption from import tax on imported goods, raw materials, and supplies for production activities 174 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution • Incentives for land use levy, land use fee, and land use tax • Shorter time frame of depreciation, leading to increase of deductible expenses when taxable income is calculated. TABLE 2.4. Investment Incentives for Production of Renewable Energy in Vietnam Timeline Types of Incentives From July 1, 2015, From Janaury 1, to the end of 2020a 2021b Enterprise income tax Yes Yes Import tax Yes Yes Land use levy, fee, and tax Yes Yes Shorter time frame of depreciation cost No Yes Source: a: Law No. 67/2014/QH13; b: Law No. 61/2020/QH14. * Enterprise Income Tax On June 19, 2013, the National Assembly of Vietnam enacted Law No. 32/2013/QH13 on “Amendments to Law on Enterprise Income Tax” (referred to as the 2013 Enterprise Income Tax Law). According to the law, the enterprise income tax rate is generally 22 percent, except for particular lines of business. According to Clause 1, Article 13 of the law, the tax rate of 10 percent for 15 years applies to the revenues of enterprises from the production of renewable energy, clean energy, and energy from waste destruction. Hence, ethanol and biogasoline producers may benefit from this regulation. * Import tax on machinery and equipment On April 6, 2016, the National Assembly of Vietnam enacted Law No. 107/2016/QH13 on “Import Tax and Export Tax.”According to Point a, Clause 19, Article 16 of the law, imported machinery, equipment, equipment, tools, and supplies used to produce renewable energy are exempt from import tax if such imported objects cannot be domestically produced. Following this law, the government of Vietnam promulgated Decree No. 134/2016/NĐ-CP dated September 1, 2016, on “Guidelines for the Law on Export and Import Tax.” According to Article 25 and Article 50 of this decree, the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) shall publish a list of goods that can be domestically produced, while the MONRE is responsible for the issuance of a list of criteria for identification of imported machinery, equipment, vehicles, tools, and supplies used for environmental protection (including production of renewable energy). Imported machinery, equipment, vehicles, tools, and supplies for the production of ethanol and biogasoline may benefit from the regulation on import tax if producers can meet the two abovementioned conditions. For the first condition, the MPI issued Circular No. 01/2018/TT-BKHĐT dated March 30, 2018, on “The Lists of Machinery, Equipment, Replacement Parts, Special-Purpose Vehicles, Raw Materials, Supplies, and Semi-Products that Manufacturable Domestically.” Based on this circular, biofuel suppliers can clarify whether or not imported goods cannot be domestically produced. However, there has been a lack of legal basis for the second condition since the MONRE has not promulgated the list of imported machinery, equipment, vehicles, tools, and supplies used for environmental protection. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 175 * Export and import tariff for cassavas Dried cassava chips are the main input in the process of ethanol production in Vietnam. Hence, export and import tariffs on cassavas may have a significant impact on the feedstock supply for ethanol production. From 2016 to now, both fresh and dried cassavas have a special preferential export tax rate of 0 percent and preferential import tax rate of 3 percent in accordance with Decree No. 57/2020/NĐ-CP of May 25, 2020, Decree No. 125/2017/NĐ-CP of November 16, 2017, and Decree No. 122/2016/NĐ-CP of September 1, 2016. TABLE 2.5. Export and Import Tariffs on Cassavas Timeline Fresh and Dried Cassavas September 1, 2016, to January 1, 2018, to From January 1, end of 2017a end of 2019b 2020c Export tax rate 0% 0% 0% Import tax rate 3% 3% 3% Source: a: Decree No. 122/2016/NĐ-CP; b: Decree No. 125/2017/NĐ-CP; c: Decree No. 57/2020/NĐ-CP. * Import tax on ethanol Ethanol is the key input for blending biogasoline. According to Notification No. 255/TB-VPCP dated June 6, 2017, the Ministry fo Finance (MOF) was assigned to the study and promulgation of import tax policy for ethanol to prevent the monopoly of ethanol supply. The import tax rate for ethanol reduced from 20 percent in 2016 to 15 percent in 2020. Table 2.6. Import Tax on Ethanol Timeline Types of Ethanol January 1, 2016, to January 1, 2018, to From January 1, end of 2017a end of 2019b 2020c Ethanol 99% (Code 2207.20.11) 20% 17% 15% Others (Code 2207.20.19) 20% 20% 15% Source: a: Decree No. 122/2016/NĐ-CP and Circular No. 182/2015/TT-BTC; b: Decree No. 125/2017/NĐ-CP; c: Decree No. 57/2020/NĐ-CP. * Taxes on biogasoline Three types of taxes are levied on biogasoline: value added tax (VAT), Special Consumption Tax (SCT), and Environmental Protection Tax (EPT). TABLE 2.7. Taxes on Biogasoline Type of Taxes Biogasoline (E5 RON92) Gasoline (RON95) VAT taxa 10% 10% SCT taxb 8% 10% EPT taxc 3,800 VND/liter 4,000 VND/liter Source: a: Consolidated Document No. 01/VBHN-VPQH; b: Law No. 70/2014/QH13; c: Decree No. 67/2011/NĐ-CP and Resolution No. 579/2018/UBTVQH14. 176 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution According to Consolidated Document No. 01/VBHN-VPQH on VAT Tax Law, VAT tax rates of 0 percent or 5 percent do not apply to ethanol and biogasoline. Both biogasoline (E5 RON92) and conventional gasoline (RON95) have the same VAT tax rates of 10 percent. In other words, there is no difference in VAT tax policy between biogasoline and conventional gasoline. On November 26, 2014, the National Assembly of Vietnam promulgated Law No. 70/2014/QH13 on Amendment of Several Articles of Law on Special Consumption Tax (SCT). This law took effect on January 1, 2016. Unlike the previous law on SCT Tax (Law No. 27/2008/QH12 on November 14, 2008), the biogasoline tax rate (i.e., gasoline E5 and E10) shall be lower than conventional gasoline. Specifically, biogasoline (E5 RON92) will have a tax rate of 8 percent, while a tax of 10 percent is levied on conventional gasoline (RON95). In 2010, the National Assembly of Vietnam enacted Law No. 57/2010/QH12 on EPT. In accordance with Article 8 of the law, the tax rate of gasoline shall be in a range of D1,000 and D4,000, while a tax rate of D500 to D2,000 shall be levied on diesel oil. Following the law, the government of Vietnam promulgated Decree No. 67/2011/NĐ-CP dated August 8, 2011, on “Guidelines for Implementation of Some Article of the Law on ETP tax.” As per Article 3 of the decree, taxable fuels are only based on the amount of gasoline or oils if a mixed fuel contains biofuel and gasoline (or oils). Currently, the tax rate of EPT is regulated by Resolution No. 579/2018/UBTVQH14 of the Standing Committee of the National Assembly. The resolution took effect on January 1, 2019. According to Article 1 of the resolution, a tax rate of D4,000 is levied on one liter of gasoline (except for ethanol), and diesel oil has a tax rate of D2,000. 2.1.2 Contributions to GHG emissions mitigation 2.1.2.1 Ethanol supply and consumption Currently, the supply of ethanol for blending biogasoline E5 RON92 is primarily from two ethanol plants of the Tung Lam Co. Ltd. with a total maximum capacity of 192,000 m3 per year. One ethanol plant is located in Dong Nai province in the Southeast region, and the other is in Quang Nam province in the South Central Coast region. The amount of ethanol produced by these two plants is enough to blend 3.84 million m3 (mcm) (or 2.688 million tons, conversion rate: 1 m3 = 0.7 ton) of E5 RON92 biogasoline. Additionally, there are two other ethanol plants in Quang Ngai and Binh Phuoc provinces. The maximum capacity of each plant is 100,000 m3 per year. However, the Binh Phuoc plant is temporarily out of service and the Quang Nai plant has discontinuous service due to financial loss. If four ethanol plants are fully in operation, the maximum capacity is 400,000 m3 per year (or 400 million liters per year). Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 177 TABLE 2.8. Existing Ethanol Plants in Vietnam No. Name Location Maximum Capacity Current Status 1 Tung Lam Dong Nai province (Southeast 72,000 m3/year In operation ethanol plant region) (or 72 million liters/year) 2 Tung Lam Quang Nam province (South 120,000 m3/year In operation ethanol plant Central Coast region) (or 120 million liters/year) 3 Binh Phuoc Binh Phuoc province (Southeast 100,000 m3/year Temporarily closed ethanol plant region) (or 100 million liters/year) 4 Quang Ngai Quang Ngai province (South 100,000 m3/year Discontinuous ethanol plant Central Coast region) (or 100 million liters/year) operation Sources: MOIT 2017 and study team. Note: 1 m3 = 1,000 liters. TABLE 2.9. Supply of Ethanol for Biofuel Blending Supply Resource Unit 2016 2017 2018 2019 Domestic supply m3 23,970 140,857 241,495 262,382 Import m3 75 54 15 162 Export m3 414 760 527 5,067 Source: Institute of Energy. Based on a World Bank survey of key traders of biogasoline, the annual amount of ethanol used to blend biogasoline is estimated for the period from 2014 to 2020. Specifically, the demand for ethanol was only 2,903 m3 in 2014, and it peaked at 108,203 m3 in 2018. The demand for ethanol used for blending biogasoline dreased in the period from 2019 to 2020. Note that biogasoline was sold only in seven cities from December 1, 2014. The national sales of biogasoline were carried out from December 1, 2015, in accordance with Decision No. 53/2012/QĐ-TTg (or Roadmap 53). FIGURE 2.1. Amount of Ethanol Used to Blend Biogasoline Source: Study team. 178 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution 2.1.2.2 Biogasoline supply and consumption E5 RON92 biogasoline is a blend of conventional RON92 gasoline (also known as A92 gasoline) and ethanol. The supply of RON92 gasoline is from imports or domestic oil refinery plants. According to the Vietnam Petroleum Institute’s data, the amount of imported gasoline decreased from 3.5 mcm in 2015 to 2.6 mcm in 2019. In the same period, the amount of gasoline from domestic oil refinery plants doubled from 3.6 mcm to 7.2 mcm. From 2015 to 2017, the amount of domestically produced A92 gasoline was considerably more than A95 gasoline. However, the amount of domestically produced A95 gasoline sharply increased in the period from 2018 to 2019. This may infer the upward and downward trends of E5 RON92 gasoline in the same periods. FIGURE 2.2. Mineral Gasoline Supply in Vietnam Sources: Vietnam Petroleum Institute and Vietnam Customs. The annual volume of actual biogasoline production had an increasing trend between 2014 and 2018, but it experienced a decline in the period from 2018 to 2020. This may infer an upward and downward trend of biogasoline demand in the same period. Specifically, the production of biogasoline increased from 981,380 m3 in 2014 to 2,165,256 m3 in 2018. Then, it went down to 1,971,530 m3 in 2020. As per the record of key traders, the amount of biogasoline sold in the domestic market is approximately equal to that of production. It is noted that key traders may sell biogasoline to various clients, such as other gasoline traders, retailers, and end users. Hence, it is not easy to distinguish the biogasoline consumption of end users from that of other clients. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 179 FIGURE 2.3. Volume of Biogasoline Production in Vietnam Source: 2021 World Bank survey of key biogasoline traders in Vietnam. According to an average annual amount of biogasoline production, Petrolimex is the biggest gasoline supplier (75.8 percent), followed by PV Oil (18.6 percent) and the others (6 percent). Particularly, the share of Petrolimex had a slight increase of 4 percent from 2015 to 2017, then a significant decrease of 14 percent was recorded from 2017 to 2020. At the same time, the share of PV Oil experienced a decline from 14.9 percent in 2015 to 11.5 percent in 2017, but its share was more than 23 percent on average in the periods from 2018 to 2020. FIGURE 2.4. Share of Actual Biogasoline Production by Key Traders in Vietnam Source: Study team. For an actual share of E5 gasoline, data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) will be used in this study (MOIT 2017, 2018, 2019). The result indicated that an average annual share was 24 percent between 2016 and 2019. Specifically, the actual share increased from 8 percent in 2016 to 42 percent in 2018, and then it declined to 38 percent in 2019. According to a scenario with only domestic resources of the updated NDC of Vietnam in July 2020 (VN-NDC 2020), it is hypothesized that an average annual amount of ethanol used for the production of biogasoline E5 is 145,000 m3 180 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution (first scenario of VN-NDC 2020). It can be seen that the implementation of biofuels has reached the NDC target for the period from 2015 to 2019. As illustrated in Figure 2.6, the actual consumption of E5 gasoline was 42 percent in 2018, but this rate decreased to 38 percent in 2019. FIGURE 2.5. Amount of Biogasoline Production: Actual versus First Scenario in VN-NDC 2020 Source: Study team. FIGURE 2.6. Ratio of E5 Gasoline Consumption: Actual versus First Scenario in VN-NDC 2020 Sources: MOIT 2017, 2018, and 2019 and study team. The price of E5 RON 92 seems to not be attractive to price-sensitive consumers. Generally, there is not a significant gap between biogasoline and conventional prices. From August 2018 to April 2021, the price gap between gasoline E5 RON92 and gasoline RON95 was about D1,000 on average. The price gap peaked at D1,506 in August 2018, and it declined to the lowest point at D520 in August 2020. Then, the price gap experienced an increase of D600 from August 2020 to April 2021. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 181 FIGURE 2.7. Gasoline Prices in Vietnam: E5 RON92 versus RON95 Source: PV Oil. 2.2 Analysis of the Trend of Biofuels in the Period from 2021 to 2030 2.2.1 International experience with biofuel promotion Biofuels have a long history in transport, energy, and climate policies in Europe, Brazil, and North America. Governments have created supporting policies for biofuels driven by various objectives relating to the fight against climate change, energy security, oil import reduction, and agricultural and rural development. Managing agricultural overproduction and sustaining prices for key crops in Europe and the United States became a growing concern in the 1980s and 1990s, to which ethanol blended with gasoline provided one solution. Pursuance of a modest share of ethanol in gasoline was not against the oil industry’s interest as it provided a solution to knock resistance replacing lead when countries started banning, one by one, the use of lead in gasoline for environmental and health reasons. Over the last two decades, climate concerns have become an increasingly strong motivation for policies promoting biofuels. This has resulted in growing support for biofuels and the production of biodiesel and fuel ethanol. These policies triggered a substantial investment boom, which peaked in 2007 when several sustainability concerns related to the impacts of biofuels on food security, food and feed prices, and direct and indirect land use became an integral part of the international climate and energy debate. The food-versus-fuel debate, particularly, mobilized the scientific community, governments, and nongovernmental organization (NGOs) and led to studies on the carbon intensity of various types of liquid biofuels. Studies now consider the life cycle emissions of the supply chains and emissions 182 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution due to land use change (LUC) and indirect land use change (ILUC) caused by growing feedstock for biofuels. Consequently, regulators in the largest markets, particularly the United States and the European Union (EU), reset their biofuel targets, blending mandates and support policies considering fuel distinctions by feedstock and associated carbon intensities. FIGURE 2.8. Annual Global Investments in Biofuels Source: IRENA 2019. Note: 2G data for 2018 not available. Data are in US$, billion. In the view of life cycle assessment, biofuels also generate GHGs from the raw feedstock production to transport, conversion to biofuels distribution, and end use (Sikarwar et al. 2017). Based on this approach, Sikarwar et al. (2017) compared GHG emissions by gasoline and biofuels produced from a variety of feedstocks. Compared to gasoline, biofuels produced from cellulosic and sugarcane have the most significant potential, cutting GHG emissions by 80 percent to 90 percent. However, corn- based biofuels can only cut GHG emissions by 20 percent. This indicates that GHG emissions from biofuels vary by type of feedstock. Hence, it is important to select fewer GHG-emitting feedstocks for the production of biofuels. Support policies for biofuels are often driven by energy security concerns, coupled with the desire to sustain the agricultural sector and revitalize the rural economy. More recently, the reduction of CO2 emissions from the transport sector has become an essential driver for biofuel development, particularly in countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). One of the most common support measures is a blending mandate, which defines the proportion of biofuel that must be used in (road-) transport fuel, often combined with other measures such as tax incentives. More than 50 countries, including several non-OECD countries, have adopted blending targets or mandates, and several more have announced biofuel quotas for future years. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 183 TABLE 2.10. Biofuel Blending Targets and Mandates Current Status Country/Region Current Mandate/Target Future Mandate/Target [(mandate (M)/ target (T)] Argentina E5, B7 n.a. M Australia E4, B2 E6 (2011), B5 (2012) M Bolivia E10, B2.5 B20 (2015) T Brazil E20–25, B5 n.a M Canada E5–E8, B2–B3 B2 (nationwide) M Chile E5, B5 n.a. T China E10 n.a. M Colombia E10, B10 B20 M Costa Rica E7, B20 n.a M European Union 5.75% biofuels* 10% renewable energy in transport** T India E5 E20, B20 M Indonesia E3, B2.5 E15, B20 (2025) M Jamaica E10 Renewable energy in transport: 11% (2012); M 12.5% (2015); 20% (2030) Japan 500 Ml/y (oil equivalent) 800 Ml/y (2018) T Kenya E10 n.a. M Malaysia B5 n.a. M Mexico E2 E2 M Mozambique n.a. E10, B5 n.a Norway 3.5% biofuels 5% in 2011; possible alignment with EU M mandate Nigeria E10 n.a. T Paraguay E24, B1 n.a. M Peru E7.8, B2 B5 M Philippines E5, B2 B5, E10 M Republic of Korea B2 B2.5, B3 M South Africa n.a. 2% (2013) n.a. Taiwan B2, E3 n.a. M Thailand B3 3 Ml/d ethanol, B5 (2011); 9 Ml/d ethanol M (2017) Uruquay B2 E5 (2015), B5 (2012) M United States 48 billion liters of which 136 billion liters, of which 60 Gl. cellulosic- M 0.02 Gl. cellulosic- ethanol (2022) ethanol Venezuela E10 n.a. T Zambia n.a. E5, B10 n.a. B = biodiesel (B2 = 2% biodiesel blend); E = ethanol (E2 = 2% ethanol blend); Ml/d = million liters per day. *Currently, each member state has set up different targets and mandates. **Lignocellulosic-biofuels, as well as biofuels made from waste and residue, count twice and renewable electricity 2.5 times toward the target. Source: IEA 2011. 184 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution Next to mandates, tax incentives have proven effective even as the sole regulatory measure if the incentive level is strong enough. Tax cuts, rebates, and credits are ways to improve the price competitiveness of renewable fuels. Fuel and/or carbon taxes imposed on fossil fuels can be used for the same purpose by making fossil fuel alternatives more expensive. A universal and revenue- neutral carbon tax is often seen as the most advanced and fair tax measure to promote the deployment of low-carbon fuels. It is completely fuel technology neutral and not fiscal in the sense that tax revenues are returned to the taxpayers. According to a World Bank report on the state and trends of carbon pricing (World Bank 2018), some national jurisdictions had carbon taxes on fossil fuels. For instance, Finland’s carbon tax rate for fossil fuels rose from €58/tCO2e (US$72/tCO2e) to €62/tCO2e (US$77/tCO2e) on January 1, 2018. 2.2.2 Orientation for development of biofuel supply 2.2.2.1 Target for biogasoline and biodiesel Up to now, there are three official documents regarding the target for the share of biogasoline, including: Biofuel Scheme No. 177, Renewable Energy Strategy No. 2068, and VN-NDC 2020. Firstly, a target of 5 percent by 2025 is mentioned in Biofuel Scheme No. 177. However, this target seems to be underestimated since the actual share of biogasoline is larger than 5 percent in the period from 2015 to 2020. Secondly, Renewable Energy Strategy No. 2068 set the targets of 13 percent in 2030 and 25 percent in 2050. In comparison with the actual shares of biogasoline in the period from 2015 to 2019, these targets appear low. Finally, there are two options of the target for the share of biogasoline in the period from 2021 to 2030, including: 2.9 mcm of biogasoline per year, or 40 percent per year. TABLE 2.11. Approved Targets for the Share of Biogasoline in 2021–30 Legal Documents Share of Biogasoline (%) 2025 2030 2040 2045 2050 Decision No. 177/2007/QĐ-TTg (2007) 5% - - - - Decision No. 2068/QĐ-TTg (2015) - 13% - - 25% VN-NDC 2020 (1st Scenario) 2.9 mcm of E5 gasoline - - - Source: Study team. Remarkably, Vietnam Green Growth Strategy (VGGS) from 2021 through 2030, vision to 2045 (VGGS 2021–2030) was approved by Decision No 1658/QĐ-TTg dated October 1, 2021. According to the report of VGGS 2021–30, the promotion of biofuel for road transport vehicles is one of the mitigation measures. Tentatively, the target for the share of biogasoline to the total amount of gasoline sold is 40 percent in the period from 2019 to 2024, 30 percent in 2030, and 45 percent in 2050. 2.2.2.2 Road map for blending * Blend mandate Up to now, only the blend mandate for gasoline RON92 has been implemented in accordance with Notification No. 255/TB-VPCP of the government office in 2017. There are no legal documents Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 185 regarding a blend mandate for gasoline RON95. The government of Vietnam is the approval agency for this policy. The latest relevant document is Renewable Energy Strategy No. 2068 (approved by the government of Vietnam in 2015). According to this strategy, the development orientation to 2030 for biofuels is that biogasoline and biodiesel shall cover a part of the total national demand for gasoline and diesel. In other words, there is no orientation that the share of biogasoline and biodiesel shall be 100 percent in the transport sector. Additionally, the blend mandate for gasoline RON 95 and diesel has not been mentioned in the report of VGGS 2021–30. In summary, there is uncertainty about implementing a blend mandate policy for all types of gasoline and diesel in the period from 2021 to 2025. Therefore, the possible scenario is that there will be no blend mandate for diesel, only the current blend mandate for gasoline shall be continuously carried out. This scenario is consistent with that of VGGS 2021–2030. * Blending rates for gasoline and diesel Existing policy directions for the ethanol blend rate are provided in two legal documents: Biofuel Scheme No. 177 and Decision No. 53/2012/QĐ-TTg (referred to as Biofuel Roadmap No. 53). On the one hand, only the ethanol blend rate of 5 percent for both gasoline and diesel (i.e., gasoline E5 and diesel B5) is mentioned in the Biofuel Scheme No. 177. On the other hand, 5 percent and 10 percent rates are shown in Biofuel Roadmap No. 53. However, only the road map for implementation of gasoline E5 and E10 is determined. While gasoline E5 is commercialized, gasoline E10 is not yet available in the market. TABLE 2.12. Approved Blending Rates Legal Documents Blending Rate Timeline Decision No. 177/2007/QĐ-TTg 5% • Gasoline E5: from 2010 • Diesel B5: from 2010 Decision No. 53/2012/QĐ-TTg 5% & 10% • Gasoline E5: from 1/12/2014 • Gasoline E10: from 1/12/2016 • Diesel B5 & B10: undetermined Source: Study team. According to the Draft QCVN 1:2020/BHKCN on National Technical Regulations on gasoline, diesel, and biofuels, there are limits for technical criteria related to safety, health, and environment. In addition, this regulation provides quality management requirements for gasoline, diesel fuel, and biofuels, including: • Unleaded gasoline, E5 gasoline, E10 gasoline • Diesel fuel, B5 diesel fuel • Biofuels: unmodified fuel ethanol, denatured fuel ethanol, and B100-based biodiesel. According to the report of VGGS 2021–2030, a different scenario for biofuel development was made. Specifically, the assumption is that gasoline E5 will be continuously sold from 2019 to 2024, then it will be replaced by gasoline E10 from 2025. Additionally, it is assumed that there will be no 186 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution biodiesel. It can be seen that, in the period from 2021 to 2030, the orientation policy on biofuel blend rate will still focus on E5 and E10 gasoline. 2.2.2.3 Applicability of biofuel to other transport subsectors Currently, biofuels are only promoted in the road transport subsector. In other transport subsectors (e.g., railway and inland waterway), the use of biofuels has not as yet been prioritized. The existing policy direction for the use of ethanol in the transport subsector is provided in Renewable Energy Strategy No. 2068. In cooperation with the MOIT, the MOT has been assigned to develop scientific research and policies to promote the use of biofuels for private vehicles, public transport, freight transport, and aviation transport. According to VGGS 2021–2030, biofuels are only applicable to the road transport subsector, and there have been no specific orientations for the application of biofuels to other transport subsectors. Additionally, the MOT promulgated Decision No. 452/QĐ-BGTVT dated March 24, 2021, on “Action Plan of MOT for Climate Change Adaptation, Reinforcement of Resource Management and Environmental Protection in the Period of 2021–2025.” According to the action plan, there are no specific orientations for the use of biofuels in the transport subsectors. With respect to aviation transport, the MOT issued Decision No. 4206/QĐ-BGTVT dated December 28, 2016, on “Action Plan for Reduction of CO2 Emission from Civil Aviation Activity in the Period of 2016-2020.” According to the decision, the MOT only plans to research alternative fuels for aviation transport activities in Vietnam. Therefore, the moderate scenario is that biofuels are only applicable to the road transport subsector. This scenario is consistent with that of VGGS 2021–2030. 2.2.2.4 Barriers for biogasoline producers Five biogasoline producers participated in the interviews, including: Petrolimex, PV Oil, Saigon Petro, Petimex, and Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (PVN). PV Oil is a subsidiary of PVN. The feedback from these producers on the challenges they face and supportive policies is summarized as follows: • First, the majority of biogasoline producers indicated issues of feedstock availability and price. Regarding feedstock availability, PV Oil and PVN had a common comment on the lack of a feedstock area plan for ethanol production. PVN clarified that “Existing feedstock for the production of ethanol are food crops or industrial crops (e.g., cassava, sugarcane…), so the sector of ethanol production is competing with other sectors (e.g., production of flour, sugar, and animal feed) for feedstock.” Additionally, Saigon Petro had a comment on the supply of ethanol 100 percent (E100). According to Saigon Petro, the domestic supply of E100 sometimes did not meet the demand. With respect to feedstock price, PV Oil and PVN were concerned about the instability of inputs for the production of biogasoline. Specifically, PVN pointed out that biogasoline will not compete with conventional gasoline when the price of conventional gasoline is significantly decreased. On the other hand, Saigon Petro noted that the cost of imported E100 is often lower than that of E100 from domestic supply. • Second, most ethanol producers did not have a concern about conversion technology and car technology. On this question, only Petemix answered “Yes,” but no specific comment was made. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 187 • Third, Petrolimex and PV Oil said they faced no barriers in the following aspects: financial; infrastructure for blending, transport, storage, and retailing; and laws and regulations. Petrolimex and PV Oil are the two biggest suppliers of both biogasoline and conventional gasoline in Vietnam. However, the rest of the interviewees had comments on those barriers. Regarding financial barriers, Saigon Petro said that tax policies for biogasoline are insufficient compared to conventional gasoline. PVN noted the strong competition between fossil fuels and biofuels due to the low price of pure oil. On infrastructure, both Saigon Petro and PVN mentioned the investment costs of the blending and storage systems for biogasoline. Regarding laws and regulations, Saigon Petro recommended an ethanol blend mandate for all types of gasoline. Additionally, PVN further clarified that “Existing blend mandate is only applicable to gasoline RON 92. And existing policies for the price of biogasoline is not enough, so consumers still prefer conventional gasoline.” • Finally, the majority of biogasoline producers indicated the issues of customer demand and price of biogasoline. PVN and Saigon Petro stated that the price gap between biogasoline and conventional gasoline is not large enough. Biogasoline is only a little cheaper than conventional gasoline, so customers still prefer to use conventional gasoline. TABLE 2.13. Barriers Facing Ethanol Producers in Vietnam Biogasoline Producers No. Barriers Petrolimex PV Oil Saigon Petro Petimex PVN 1 Feedstock availability Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 2 Feedstock price Yes Yes Yes Yes No 3 Conversion technology No No No Yes No 4 Car technology (engine) No No No No No 5 Financial barriers (e.g., No No Yes Yes Yes big investment cost, low interest) 6 Infrastructure for No No Yes Yes Yes blending, transport, storage, and retailing 7 Laws and regulations No No Yes Yes Yes (e.g., lack of blend mandate for biogasoline) 8 Customer demand No Yes No Yes Yes 9 Price of biogasoline Yes No Yes Yes Yes 10 Others, please specify No No No No No Source: Study team. 188 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution 2.2.3 Biofuel demand In order to analyze the demand for biofuel, end users (i.e., motorcycle and car drivers) were interviewed in Hanoi. In total, there were 600 respondents, including 450 motorcycle riders and 150 car drivers. In the second part of the questionnaire, respondents were asked about current fuel consumption as well as their views on the usage of biogasoline and supportive policies. The interview results are summarized in the subsequent subsections. 2.2.3.1 Current refueling behavior First, respondents were asked whether they are aware of the availability of gasoline E5 RON92 at a gas station where they often refuel. There were three answer options: “Yes,” “No,” and “Not sure.” Seventy-seven percent of motorcycle and car drivers were aware of the availability of gasoline E5 RON 92. Only 3 percent of respondents answered “No.” Remarkably, 20 percent of interviewees were unsure whether gasoline E5 RON92 is available at a gas station where they often refuel. FIGURE 2.9. Awareness of the Availability of Gasoline E5 RON92 Source: Study team. Second, the interviewees were asked whether they buy gasoline E5 RON 92 when it is available at gas stations. There were three answer options: “Yes,” “No,” and “Not sure.” The result indicates significant difference in refueling behavior of motorcycle and car drivers. Specifically, 71 percent of car drivers do not use gasoline E5 RON 92, while only 29 percent of motorcycle drivers responded “No.” However, more motorcycle drivers are unsure whether they used gasoline E5 RON 92 compared to car drivers. Overall, 34 percent of motorcycle and car drivers bought gasoline E5 RON 92 when refueling, but 67 percent said “No” or “Not sure.” Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 189 FIGURE 2.10. Usage of Gasoline E5 RON92 When Refueling Source: Study team. 2.2.3.2 Awareness of biogasoline Interviewees were asked for the main reasons why they “used” or “did not use” gasoline E5 RON92 when they refuel. There is a list of 10 reasons (see figure below). Interviewees could give multiple answers, but there were a maximum of three options out of 10 reasons. For the main reasons why people chose biogasoline, the result indicates that fuel price is the most selected reason (accounting for 25 percent of total choice), followed by the safety of vehicle engine (15 percent) and fuel quality (14 percent). This implies that more supportive policies for the price of biogasoline may lead to an increase in biogasoline consumption. Among the main reasons why people did not use such biogasoline, the three most selected items are safety of vehicle engine (36 percent), fuel quality (33 percent), and the advice of family members or friends (13 percent). It seems that motorcycle and car drivers are concerned about the quality of biogasoline E5 RON92. They believe it may harm their vehicle engines. Such a belief is one of the barriers to the development of the biofuel market in Vietnam. The government should have in place more policies to raise people’s awareness about the benefits of biogasoline. 190 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution FIGURE 2.11. Main Reasons Why Interviewees Used Biogasoline E5 RON92 Source: Study team. FIGURE 2.12. Main Reasons Why Interviewees Did Not Use Biogasoline E5 RON92 Source: Study team. 2.2.3.3 Willingness to use biogasoline Regarding the willingness to use biogasoline, motorcycle and car drivers were asked their views on the importance of nine influential factors for their choices, including: • Price of biogasoline • Quality of biogasoline produced by domestic companies • Safety of vehicle engine • Availability of biogasoline at gas stations Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 191 • Environmental benefits of biogasoline • Social benefits of biogasoline • Contribution of biogasoline to national energy security • Communications and supportive policies of government authorities • Confirmation from vehicle manufacturers about the use of biogasoline. The answer is scaled from 1 (very unimportant) to 5 (very important). Based upon interviewees’ responses, an average score of each factor is estimated. The result indicates that the safety of vehicle engines has the highest score (4.33), followed by fuel quality (4.25) and confirmation from vehicle manufacturers (3.97). This result is logical and consistent since motorcycle and car drivers are mainly concerned with the quality of biogasoline and the safety of vehicle engines. There are two main policy implications. The first one is that biogasoline producers and government authorities must ensure the quality of biogasoline is in accordance with current regulations. The second is that vehicle manufacturers need to announce what types of biofuels their vehicles can use. FIGURE 2.13. Average Score of Factors Influencing People’s Willingness to Use Biogasoline Source: Study team. 2.2.3.4 Supportive policies for biofuels Finally, motorcycle and car drivers were asked for their views on supportive policies. They were given a list of seven policies, including: • Import tax on bioethanol • Import tax on equipment used for the production of biofuel 192 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution • Corporate income tax on domestic biofuel producers • Special Consumption Tax (SCT) on biofuel • Value added tax (VAT) on biofuel • Environmental Protection Tax (EPT) on biofuel • The blend mandate for biofuels. The answer is scaled from 1 (very unimportant) to 5 (very important). Based on the responses of respondents, an average score of each policy is estimated. The policy for reduction of EPT tax for biofuel has the highest score (3.61), followed by SCT (3.59) and VAT (3.57). This result seems logical since motorcycle and car drivers shall benefit more from the reduction of those taxes. FIGURE 2.14. Average Score of Supportive Policies for Biofuels Source: Study team. 2.3 Scenario for Promoting Biofuels 2.3.1 Consultation with stakeholders 2.3.1.1 Consultation for biogasoline targets Representatives of agencies only gave recommendations on targets to 2025. Specifically, representatives of the Department of Science and Technology in the MOIT recommended the share of biogasoline and biodiesel in total road gasoline and diesel could be 30 percent by 2025. This target is lower than the VN-NDC 2020’s target but closer to the actual share in the period from 2015 to 2019. On the other hand, both interviewees from the Vietnam Biofuels Association (VBA) and Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 193 the Vietnam Petroleum Association (VINPA) said that 40 percent of the total gasoline and diesel demand would be biofuel. This proposal is in line with the VN-NDC 2020 suggestion. It is noted that such recommendations have not been mentioned in any official documents. TABLE 2.14. Recommendations for the Share of Biogasoline Share of Biogasoline (%) Agency 2025 2030 2040 2045 2050 DOST, MOIT 30% - - - - VBA 40% - - - - VINPA 40% - - - - Source: Study team. 2.3.1.2 Consultation for blend mandate Along with the blend mandate, interviewees were asked for their views on the percentage and date of ethanol blend rates for gasoline and diesel. All interviewees indicated that it may be feasible to use the ethanol blend rate of 10 percent in the period from 2021 to 2025. The recommended blend rate is consistent with that of Biofuel Roadmap No. 53. TABLE 2.15. Recommendations for the Ethanol Blend Rate Agency Ethanol Blend Rate When It Is Feasible to Implement DOST, MOIT 10% Gasoline E10: 2021–25 VBA 10% Same as above VINPA 10% Same as above Source: Study team. 2.3.1.3 Consultation on applicability of biofuels to other transport subsectors Representatives of agencies were asked for an estimate of the potential for the use of biofuels in transport subsectors, except road transport. Interviewees answered questions on three key items: • Feasibility of implementation (Yes/No) • What period is feasible to introduce the policy? • The target for the share of biofuel in each transport subsector. Generally, interviewees indicated that railway transport may have the highest potential for the use of biofuels in the period from 2021 to 2025, followed by inland waterway transport in the period from 2026 to 2030. Aviation transport is considered to have the least potential for the use of biofuels. 194 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution TABLE 2.16. Recommendations for the Use of Biofuels in Transport Subsectors Agency Potential for the Use of Biofuels Railway Inland Waterway Maritime Aviation DOST, MOIT • Yes, in 2021–25 • Yes, in 2026–30 • Yes, in 2041–50 • Yes, in 2041–50 • 10% by 2025 • 10% by 2030 • 10% by 2050 • 10% by 2050 VBA • Yes, in 2021–25 • Yes, in 2026–30 • Yes, in 2026–30 No • 10% by 2025 • 30% by 2030 • 10% by 2030 VINPA • Yes, in 2021–25 • Yes, in 2026–30 • Yes, in 2026–30 No • 10% by 2025 • 30% by 2030 • 10% by 2030 Source: Study team. Note: Recommendations do not include road transport. 2.3.2 Scenario recommendation 2.3.2.1 Biogasoline development scenario for the period from 2021 to 2030 Based on the analysis of policy orientations, barriers, and consultation results, the study team proposed the development scenario for biogasoline in 2021 to 2030 as follows: • Type of blended fuels: According to the analysis of policies, the most feasible scenario is that only gasoline shall be used for the blending in the period from 2021 to 2030, and the diesel blending will not be implemented. Due to the lack of specific policies regarding the road map for diesel blending, B5 and B10 diesel have not been nationally commercialized. The experience in the national commercialization of E5 gasoline is that it took at least three to four years from the time the legal road map was promulgated. It takes time to prepare feedstock supply areas for ethanol plants and the construction of blending, storage, and transport systems. For biodiesel, feedstocks for the production of B100 diesel must be considered. On June 19, 2008, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) promulgated Decision No. 1842/QĐ-BNN-LN on “Approval of Scheme on Research, Development, and Usage of Products of Jatropha Curcas in Vietnam in the Period of 2007-2015 and a Vision to 2025.” Jatropha has the potential for the production of B100. Up to now, however, the production of B100 is small-scale and just in the pilot phase. In conclusion, diesel blending has low feasibility in the period from 2021 to 2030 due to the lack of policies and deficiencies of production and blending infrastructures. • The ethanol blending rate: According to the analysis of policies, the most feasible rates of ethanol are 5 percent (E5 gasoline) and/or 10 percent (E10 gasoline) in the period from 2021 to 2030. • Market share of biogasoline: The share of biogasoline had a downward trend in the period from 2018 to 2020. According to the analysis of policies, there have been no policy breakthroughs such as a blend mandate for all types of gasoline or tax deduction policy. Therefore, the most feasible scenario is that the share of E5 gasoline will have a slightly decreasing trend in the period from 2020 to 2024, from 40 percent in 2019 to 30 percent in 2024. By 2025, it is Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 195 proposed that the ethanol blending rate will be changed from 5 percent (E5 gasoline) to 10 percent (E10 gasoline). There are three main reasons for this proposal as follows: - Shifting from E5 gasoline to E10 gasoline may lead to larger demand and market for ethanol. This may further promote the production activities of domestic ethanol plants. - According to the policy analysis, shifting from E5 gasoline to E10 gasoline is the most feasible policy in terms of legal regulations because E10 gasoline has been regulated in the following legal documents: • The Biofuel Roadmap No. 53 in accordance with Decision No. 53/2012/QĐ-TTg • National technical regulation QCVN 03:2014/BCT on equipment, auxiliaries, and means for blending, storing, and transportation of ethanol and E10 gasoline at distribution terminals • National technical regulation QCVN 1:2015/BKHCN on gasoline, diesel oils, and biofuel. It is noted that the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) is formulating a Draft of National Technical Regulation QCVN 1:2020/BKHCN for replacement of QCVN 1:2015/ BKHCN and Amendment 1:2017 QCVN 1:2015/BKHCN. According to the draft, there are only regulations regarding three types of biofuels—E5 gasoline, E10 gasoline, and B5 diesel. - Key gasoline traders may not face difficulties in shifting from E5 gasoline to E10 gasoline since they can utilize existing blending, storage, and transport systems. • Application of biofuels to other transport subsectors: According to the policy analysis, it is better to continue the blending for gasoline in road transport subsectors, and biofuels have not been applied to other transport subsectors. Up to now, there have been no specific policies for the application of biofuels in the period from 2021 to 2030. Additionally, the experience in the national commercialization of E5 gasoline is that it took at least three to four years from the time the legal road map was promulgated. Hence, it has a low possibility for the application of biofuels to other transport subsectors. In conclusion, the proposed scenario is as follows: The share of E5 gasoline will have a slightly decreasing trend in the period from 2020 to 2024, and it will reduce to 30 percent by 2024. By a policy intervention, E10 gasoline will be used in road transport subsectors by 2025. It is assumed that the amount of ethanol used for E10 gasoline in 2025 will be equal to such amount used for E5 gasoline in 2024. The share of E5 gasoline is projected to be 30 percent in 2024, so it may be inferred that the share of E10 gasoline will be 15 percent in 2025. Then, the share of E10 gasoline will gradually rise to 30 percent by 2030. 2.3.2.2 Proposed supporting policies • Feedstock supply for production of ethanol: - The period from 2021 to 2025: The first thing is to maintain existing orientation policies for volume and plantation area of cassava (i.e., 10 million to 11 million tons and 500 hectares) as well as incentives for cassava farming and processing in accordance with Decree No. 55/2015/NĐ-CP on “Credit Policy for Agricultural and Rural Development” and Decision 196 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution No. 68/2013/QĐ-TTg on “Supportive Policy for Mitigation of Losses in Agricultural Sector.” Additionally, it is necessary to formulate a plan of dedicated feedstock area for domestic ethanol plants. - The period from 2026 to 2030: Alternative feedstock (e.g., industrial crops) must be considered when demand for ethanol is increased. In existing policies, only cassava is selected as feedstock for the production of ethanol. It is necessary to formulate and promulgate policies regarding alternative feedstock for the production of ethanol in Vietnam. • Supply of ethanol: The mechanism of linkage from farming and processing to consumption of cassava products must be formulated by utilizing incentives in accordance with Decree No. 98/2018/NĐ-CP on “Incentive Policies for Development of Linkage in Production and Consumption of Agricultural Productions.” This may lead to a stable feedstock supply for domestic ethanol plants. Additionally, there will be a growth of demand for ethanol due to the shifting from E5 gasoline to E10 gasoline. Existing ethanol plants need to scale up capacity (for plants with stable operation) or restart their operations (for plants with discontinuous operations due to financial loss). Hence, it is necessary to provide loans with preferential interest rates for existing ethanol plants for capacity expansion or reoperation. • Biogasoline supply: Key gasoline traders need to invest and expand the capacity of the blending system due to the shift from E5 gasoline to E10 gasoline. Incentives include an exemption from import tax on machines and equipment used for blending biogasoline, which is crucial to encourage key traders to expand the blending system. The MONRE should promulgate a list of imported machinery, equipment, vehicles, tools, and supplies used for environmental protection by Decree No. 134/2016/NĐ-CP “Guidelines for the Law on Export and Import Tax.” • Biogasoline consumption: Providing purchasing incentives that can increase the price gap between biodiesel and existing diesel oils, such as reducing VAT, EPT, and SCT. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 197 REFERENCES IEA (International Energy Agency). 2011. 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Assessment of the Use of CNG Buses According to NDC Commitments and Recommendations for CNG Bus Development Scenarios 3.1 Introduction According to the updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) 2020 and research in the 2019 World Bank report (Oh et al. 2019), the measure to promote compressed natural gas (CNG) buses can be implemented using domestic resources. Accordingly, the target of the transport sector is to develop 623 CNG buses by 2030. The implementation of CNG buses is considered to reduce 3,000 tons of CO2 by 2030, cumulatively accounting for 64,000 tons of CO2 emissions reduction against business as usual (BAU) between 2015 and 2030. With the base year selected as 2014, policy interventions for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and actual implementation efforts have been considered starting from 2015 and continuing until 2030. Up to now, important questions to be answered in the CNG bus research include: 1) During the period from 2015 to 2020, how successful was the effort by the transport sector in developing the size of the CNG bus fleet? How much of the NDC commitment target has been met? 2) Can it be recommended to increase the target of the CNG bus fleet size more than the NDC commitment on the basis of policy analysis and market analysis? To answer the above two questions, the content of this section will first evaluate the GHG mitigation results (efforts and achievements) of the transport sector over the period from 2015 to 2020 and compare this achievement with the NDC 2020 target. The following section will analyze trends and prospects for the development of CNG buses based on a review of updated policies, CNG bus development targets in several major cities, and consultations with bus enterprises, and assess the availability. Based on the assessment of targets and the enterprise’s readiness, the number of CNG buses will be projected. Finally, a road map to ensure the size of the CNG bus fleet will be recommended. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 199 3.2 Transport Sector’s Efforts and Achievements in Deploying CNG Buses 3.2.1 Existing policies to promote CNG buses in Vietnam Between 2010 and 2020, the Ministry of Transport (MOT) developed and issued many important policies related to the development of public transport vehicles using clean fuel, contributing to ensuring the goal of reducing GHG emissions; at the same time it concretized the commitments of the transport sector in the action plan to respond to climate change and green growth. 3.2.1.1 Contribution of the transport sector to the promulgation of national policies The transport sector has integrated the development of public transport in national policies, such as the Green Growth Strategy, Climate Change Strategy, and Environmental Protection Strategy. TABLE 3.1. National Policies Related to the Development of Public Transport Policies Documents Main Content Quantitative Objective Green Growth Strategy 1393/QD-TTg • Encourage shift to CNG and - LPG for passenger transport Climate Change Strategy 2139/QD-TTg • Increase use of CNG and LPG in 2020: CNG buses account 20% and 80% of public vehicles for 20% of total vehicle by 2020 and 2050, respectively fleet 2050: CNG buses account for 80% of total vehicle fleet Environmental Protection 1216/QD-TTg • Promulgation of incentive - Strategy policies for transport vehicles using renewable energy, vehicles with low fuel consumption or low emission Source: Study team. The MOT issued Decision 1456/QD-BGTVT in 2016 on the “Action Plan to Respond to Climate Change and Green Growth of the Transport Sector for the Period From 2016 to 2020.” In this plan, the MOT has proposed five goals and six groups of solutions, in which “Promoting the use of clean energy in transportation, 5-20% of buses will use CNG, LPG or solar energy by 2020” is among the five important goals. Besides Decision 1456/QD-BGTVT, regulations related to changing fuel structure toward sustainability are mainly focused on public transport by bus and taxi. In general, the policy on public transport development is integrated into the Transport Service Development Strategy (Decision 318/QD-TTg), the Transport Development Strategy (Decision 355/QD-TTg), and the Road Network Planning (Decision 356/QD-TTg). Policies related to the development of bus fleet using clean fuel are emphasized in the following legal documents: • Mechanism and policy for the development of public transport by bus (Decision 13/QD-TTg) 200 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution • Project on improving the quality of public transport by bus until 2020 (Decision 3446/QD- BGTVT) • Project on the development of public transport by bus over the period from 2012-2020 (Decision 280/QD-TTg) • The scheme for rational development of transportation modes in major cities of Vietnam. These documents all partly mention the importance of incentives for clean-energy vehicles, including CNG buses. The most important preferential policy is Decision 13/2015/QD-TTg dated May 5, 2015, on “Mechanisms and Policies to Encourage the Development of Public Passenger Transport by Bus.” According to Clause 5 of Article 3, a clean-energy bus means liquefied gas, natural gas, or electric buses. In addition, the refueling station/charging station is part of the infrastructure system serving buses (as in Clause 2, Article 3). There are four types of incentives: • Incentives for the investment of infrastructure system development: The investor is prioritized to access preferential loans, including official development assistance (ODA) loans and preferential credit loans. Additionally, the investor may receive the support of provincial or central-level people’s committees for loan interest rates. • Incentives for the investment of vehicles: First, bus operators can be exempted from import duty on domestically unavailable parts and components for the manufacture and assembly of vehicles. Second, the investment in clean-energy buses is exempted from registration fee. And third, bus operators may receive the support of provincial or central-level people’s committees for loan interest rates. • Incentives for the operation of public bus passenger transport: Bus operators may receive a subsidy or support for the operation cost. • Incentives for bus users: First, children below the age of six and the disabled are exempt from bus fare. Second, persons with meritorious services to the revolution, the elderly, and students may receive a discount on bus fare. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 201 TABLE 3.2. Sectoral Policies Related to the Development of Public Transport in Vietnam Policies Documents Main Content Quantitative Objective Project on development 280/QD-TTg • Priority is given to the of public transport by bus application of modern, safe, in the period from 2012 to and environmentally friendly 2020 technologies for vehicle fleet Mechanisms and policies to 13/QD-TTg • Develop criteria to determine encourage the development transport operators using a of public transport by bus clean vehicle fleet as the basis for registration fee exemption • Step by step, structure the vehicle fleet in the direction of reducing the average age, prioritizing vehicles that use clean fuel Action plan to respond to 1456/QD- • Promote the use of biofuels, 5–20% of total bus fleet climate change and green BGTVT clean fuels (CNG, LPG, etc.) for growth motor vehicles Project to improve the 3446/QĐ- • Prioritize vehicles that use quality of public transport BGTVT clean fuel, ensuring the ratio of by bus until 2020 vehicles to assist people with disabilities The scheme of rational • Innovate means and development of modes of structure of public passenger transport in major cities of transport by bus, prioritizing Vietnam environmentally friendly buses (buses using LPG, CNG, etc.) Source: Study team. 3.2.1.2 Promulgation of sectoral policies at the city level At the local level, preferential policies on vehicles using clean fuel are divided into three groups: policies to support infrastructure investment, policies to support investment and procurement of vehicles, and policies to support bus operation. The review process was carried out in five major cities (Hanoi, Hai Phong, Da Nang, Ho Chi Minh City, and Can Tho) because of two reasons. First, the development of public transport mainly occurs in these cities. And second, bus enterprises in these cities can easily access preferential capital sources during the business operation. 202 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution TABLE 3.3. Policies to Support Public Transport Activities Financial Incentives Hanoi Hai Phong Da Nang Ho Chi Minh City Can Tho 1. Investment of Bus Infrastructure 1.1. Exemption from Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes the rent for land (100% in first 10-year period) 1.2. Access to Yes Yes Proposed Proposed No preferential loans: (BRT Line 1) (just general (BRT project) (BRT project) ODA or concessional orientation) loans 1.3. Support for loan Yes No No No No interest rate (50% in first 5-year period) 2. Investment of Bus Vehicles 2.1. Purchase of bus Yes (only for No No Yes (only for No vehicles by local state-owned state-owned budget operators) operators) 2.2. Purchase of bus Yes (just No No No No vehicles by ODA orientation) loans 2.3. Exemption Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes from import duty/ tax for domestically unavailable parts and components 2.4. Support for loan Yes Yes No Yes Yes (in policy, interest rate (clean-energy (50%, up to 5 (clean-energy but not yet bus: 50% in first years) bus: operators implemented) 5-year period) pay for 3%, up to 7 years) 2.5. Exemption Yes Yes (in policy, Yes (in policy, Yes Yes (in policy, from registration (for CNG bus) not yet not yet (for CNG bus) but not yet fee (clean-energy implemented) implemented) implemented) vehicles) 3. Operation of Public Bus Transport Subsidy for the Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes (in policy, operation of public (as of 2019,100 (4 subsidized (12 subsidized (106 subsidized but not yet bus passenger subsidized routes) routes) routes) implemented) transport routes) Sources: Hanoi: Resolution No. 07/2019/NQ-HDND (2019); Plan No. 201/KH-UBND (2020); Hai Phong: Decision No. 231/2017/ QD-UBND (2017); Decision No. 22/2018/QD-UBND (2018); Da Nang: Decision No. 5773/QD-UBND (2019); Ho Chi Minh: Decision No. 2398/QD-UBND (2013); Decision No. 3998/2020/QĐ-UBND; Can Tho: Decision No. 1245/QD-UBND (2018); Nha Trang: Decision No. 30/2018/QD-UBND (2018); and Ha Long Resolution No. 147/2018/NQ-HDND (2018); Decision No. 2307/ QD-UBND (2019). The policy review shows that there is a gap between promulgation and implementation. Some cities promulgated policies but have not been able to apply them due to limited financial resources. For example, the subsidy policy has been promulgated in five cities, but only four implemented the supports to bus operators. The government of Can Tho still does not provide any financial incentives Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 203 for bus operators in this period, so the bus network in the city is underdeveloped. Furthermore, only three out of five cities (Hanoi, Hai Phong, and Ho Chi Minh City) have decided to provide financial incentives, such as low bank loan interest rates, to bus operators so that they can buy buses. 3.2.2 Contributions to GHG emissions mitigation After many efforts at promoting CNG buses in major cities in Vietnam, the number of CNG buses has sharply increased. As of June 2021, there were 708 CNG buses, an increase of 7.4 times compared to 2014. The CNG buses were recorded at 5.3 percent of the total vehicle fleet. At the end of 2020, there were 672 CNG buses, which met the NDC 2020 target and the MOT’s action plan. However, CNG buses only operate in Ho Chi Minh City (495 units), Hanoi (129 units), and Binh Duong (84 units). This shows the difficulties in expanding CNG buses across the country due to the unavailability of refueling stations, gas prices, and maintenance-related issues. The list of bus operators who are operating CNG buses is presented in Appendix B. TABLE 3.4. Statistics of CNG Buses in Vietnam 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total number of busesa 11,053 11,766 11,948 12,130 12,311 13,067 13.253 CNG buses 96 108 238 425 528 658 672 CNG bus/total fleet 0.9% 0.9% 2.0% 3.5% 4.3% 5.0% 5.1% Compared to the action plan to By 2020, the rate of CNG buses will be between 5% and 20% Meet the respond to climate change and target green growth Compared to updated NDC In the period from 2020 to 2030, the number of CNG buses is 623 Meet the target Source: The data for the period from 2014 to 2020 are referenced from the Directorate for Road of Vietnam and adjusted according to the statistics of the Vietnam Register in June 2021. 3.3 Analysis of the Trend of CNG Buses in the Period from 2021 to 2030 3.3.1 International experience in CNG bus promotion The global natural gas vehicle (NGV) market reached 28.54 million vehicles in 2019 and is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.3 percent in the period from 2021 to 2028. The global NGV vehicle structure shows the prevalence of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (92 percent) powered by CNG, while the number of LNG-fuelled heavy-duty vehicles, such as trucks, buses, water, and rail transport, remained low. Among the main reasons is the nascent LNG technology, which leads to higher LNG prices. Currently, the transition to LNG is only economically feasible in the case of long-haul trucks. 204 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution FIGURE 3.1. Development of NGVs Around the World Source: See ANGVA website at http://www.angva.org/?page_id=256. Six of the top 10 countries with the largest NGV fleets are situated in Asia, including the three leaders, namely China, Iran, and Pakistan. Pakistan and Iran are characterized by the highest penetration of gas-fueled vehicles in the world—77 percent and 32 percent, respectively. FIGURE 3.2. Top 10 Countries with the Largest NGV Fleet 5,000 90% 4,411 77% 4,500 80% 4,069 4,000 3,700 70% 3,500 60% 3,000 50% 2,500 40% 2,000 32% 1,800 1,781 1,695 30% 1,500 20% 1,000 885 15% 20% 500 450 400 500 2% 5% 10% 1% 2% 11% 3% 0 0% China Iran Pakistan India Brazil Argentina Italy Colombia Thailand Uzbekistan Number of NGV Penetration rate Source: See ANGVA website at http://www.angva.org/?page_id=256. Note: Data in thousands. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 205 Instruments that proved to be efficient in leading national NGV markets include customer and demand support measures and infrastructure and supply development support measures: ● Customer and demand support measures: o Incentives that support favorable price differential between gasoline/diesel and natural gas for fuel purposes as this is a primary factor of choice for customers and infrastructure investors o Incentives designed to bring down initial costs of conversion kit installation/new NGV purchase by customers: subsidies, lower taxes and import duties, low-interest loans, accelerated depreciation of investments, etc. o Technological, safety, economic, and information support o Development of a regulatory framework to ensure smooth market operation o Proactive measures to organize cooperation between key NGV market stakeholders o Ecological policy setting emission standards and providing nonfinancial incentives to environment-friendly modes of transportation (such as all-day weekly parking in city centers, etc.). ● Infrastructure and supply development support measures: o Realization of pilot projects and stimulation of private investment in the NGV refueling network, conversion, and service centers (land allocation on a priority basis, simplification of the licensing process etc.) o Simplification of private investment procedures, including allocation of land for NGV infrastructure objects, special-purpose loans, etc. o Support of research, development, and manufacture of NGVs, conversion kits, and other equipment. For instance, Argentina has developed highly effective conversion technologies and exports them to other countries o Pilot projects of public transport and municipal vehicle conversion to CNG fueling tendering terms preferential to suppliers of environment-friendly transport o Establishing well-developed technological and safety standards, verification, and certification procedures. 206 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution TABLE 3.5. Combined Analysis of State Support Measures for the NGV Industry in the Leading National NGV Markets Criteria/Country Iran Italy India Brazil China Korea TOTAL Pakistan Thailand Colombia Argentina of America Uzbekistan Republic of Bangladesh United States Demand and customers support measures Tax benefits + + + + + + - + + - - - - 8 Restrictions for conventional vehicle movement and parking + - + - + + - - + - + - - 6 Soft-terms loans/subsidies for conversion to gas or purchase of a new natural + - + + - + - + + + - - + 8 gas vehicle Commercial and social preferences for NGV operators + + + - - - - - - - - - - 3 State regulation of prices for CNG/LNG + - - + + - + - - + + + - 7 Penalties for usage of gasoline/diesel-fueled vehicles - - + - - - - - - - + - - 2 NGV infrastructure development support measures Tax benefits/subsidies/grants for CNG/LNG infrastructure + + + - + + - + - - - - + 7 State financing and participation in CNG/LNG infrastructure investment - + - + - - + + - + - + - 6 projects Soft-term loans/accelerated land allocation, connection of communications, - + - + + - + - + + - - - 6 certification, registration, etc. State financing and participation in NGV and conversion kits production and + - - - - + + - - - - + - 4 service infrastructure investment projects Development of NGV regulations and standards + + - + + + + - - - - - - 6 Tax benefits/subsidies/grants for NGV producers, conversion, and service - + - + - - - - + - - - - 3 centers Other measures - - + - + - - + - - - - - 3 TOTAL 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 + – availability/planned introduction of support measures; - – the absence of support measures/unknown Sources: NGVA and open sources. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 207 3.3.2 Development of natural gas supply According to statistics, about 84 percent of the total amount of natural gas in Vietnam, or 8.9 billion cubic meters (bcm), was produced in 2019. Crude oil and natural gas are being exploited mainly in the south offshore, but reserves are expected to be exhausted by 2020 to 2030 (MOIT 2019). Vietnam’s gas pipeline network consists of high-pressure lines from gas fields, gas processing plants, and a distribution network. There are three transportation pipelines from the Southern region gas fields. Nam Con Son 1 pipeline accounts for the majority of Vietnam’s gas supply and has a capacity of 7.3 bcm. Two other pipelines, one from the PM3 Commercial Arrangement Area to Ca Mau and the other from Bach Ho to Phu My, have comparable capacities of between 1.5 bcm and 2 bcm. A pipeline in the Northeastern region was constructed in 1981 and is characterized by a high degree of wear. In December 2015, Phase 1 of the Nam Con Son 2 pipeline construction project was completed. It has been built to take gas from the Dai Hung gas field and is connected to Bach Ho-Dinh Co-Phu My to deliver gas to customers. After the completion of Phase 2, Nam Con Son 2 pipeline will deliver gas directly to processing plants and end users. FIGURE 3.3. Gas Transportation and Distribution Network in Vietnam Source: PetroVietnam. There is only one gas processing facility in Vietnam currently, namely the Dinh Co Gas Processing Plant. It processes gas from Cuu Long and Nam Con Son basins. The gas distribution pipeline network is tiny and exists in about 10 provinces out of 63. 208 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution TABLE 3.6. Gas Pipeline Network in Vietnam, 2019 Gas Distribution Transportation Capacity, Pipelines Region/ Basin Pipeline End Point from the Final Consumers Basin bcm/ year (construction Transportation year) Pipeline Northeast Red Thai Binh/Ham 0.03–0.05 Gas Not specified Tien Hai Industrial River Rong fields- Tien (no data on Distribution Zones in Thai Hai (1981) diameter) Center in Tien Binh province and Hai neighboring provinces in the Northern Region Southeast Cuu Bach Ho- Dinh 1.5 Dinh Co Gas Dinh Co-Ba Ria- Power plants, fertilizer Long Co-Phu My (16-inch Processing Phu My plant in Vung Tau (1995) diameter) Plant and other industrial (processing customers in Ba Ria- associated wet Vung Tau province gas) Southeast Nam Nam Con Son 1 7.3 Phu My-Nhon - Power plants in Con (2002) (26-inch Trach-Hiep Nhon Trach area Son diameter) Phuoc and industrial zones alongside the pipeline Southeast Nam Nam Con Son 7.3 Bach Ho-Dinh - Plans to deliver gas to Con 2, phase 1 (Dec. (26-inch Co-Phu My Ho Chi Minh City and Son 2015) diameter) Southeast-Southwest pipeline in the future Phu My-My Low-pressure gas Xuan-Go Dau consumers in Phu My-My Xuan-Go Dau industrial zones Southwest Malay- PM3-Ca Mau 2.2 Directly to final Power plant and Tho (2007) (18-inch­ consumers fertilizer plant in Ca Chu diameter) (Ca Mau Gas Mau province, O Mon Processing power plants in Can Plant under Tho city construction) Source: PVN. Vietnamese state authorities are planning to overcome the limitations of local gas reserves and prevent the projected gas shortage by importing LNG. Because the price of imported LNG is considerably higher than that of domestic gas, target customers will be those who can afford it, including state-owned power plants. The PV GAS company has signed an agreement on the front-end engineering and design (FEED) and a memorandum of mutual understanding with Tokyo Gas Co. The two companies have created the LNG Vietnam Joint Stock Company (LNG Vietnam JSC). Vietnam’s main LNG suppliers are Australia, Russia, and Qatar. According to the state’s plans, one LNG import terminal each will be constructed in Thi Vai (BR-VT) and Son My (Binh Thuan). Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 209 TABLE 3.7. LNG Import Terminal Construction Projects in Vietnam LNG Import Terminal Planned Launch Date Annual Capacity Proposed End Users Thi Vai (BR-VT) 2018 1.0 Mt (1.4 bcm) Industrial facilities (connection through Thi Vai-Phu My pipeline) Son My (Binh Thuan) Phase 1: 2022 Phase 1: 3.6 Mt Construction of new 4,000 MW power Phase 2: 2025 (5.0 bcm) station and development of Southeast market Phase 2: 2.4 Mt (3.3 bcm) Source: PVE 2016. 3.3.3 Increase in natural gas demand 3.3.3.1 Natural gas demand The total energy consumption in Vietnam in the last nine years has risen 1.3 times to 61.8 megatonne of oil equivalent (Mtoe), and the share of natural gas in 2019 was 2.1 percent compared to 1.2 percent in 2010. Crude oil and natural gas are being extracted mainly offshore in the south, but the reserves are expected to be depleted by 2020 to 2030 (MOIT 2019). FIGURE 3.4. Final Energy Consumption in Vietnam Between 2010 and 2019 Source: MOIT 2018. The total consumption of natural gas in 2019 was 1,455 million m3 (mcm). Between 2013 and 2015, gas market growth slowed to 4 percent per year due to a lack of production capacities. The demand for natural gas in Vietnam grows in line with the total energy market growth. A list of natural gas segment-specific growth drivers, includes: • Lack of new oil field discoveries. Oil production grew by 2.0 percent between 2016 and 2018 driven by additional production at Te Giac Trang field and utilization of enhanced oil recovery techniques at mature fields (PetroTimes 2021). But since 2019, domestic oil production gradually decreased due to the aging of oil fields. 210 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution • Increase of gas-fueled energy production. Gas-fueled power generation constituted 21 percent of the total national energy output in 2014 (ADB 2015). PVE forecasts that in the short term, this ratio will increase to 31 percent, even after considering the forecasted growth of coal usage (PVE 2016). Wood Mackenzie holds a more conservative opinion (Wood Mackenzie 2015). It expects the share of gas to remain at 20 percent to 23 percent between 2017 and 2035 and the share of coal to exceed 50 percent by 2035 compared to 28.6 percent in 2014. Both forecasts agree that the demand for gas for power generation will grow at least in line with general power generation growth rates. • The government plans to promote the use of gas in the transport sector in order to reduce air pollution in major cities. FIGURE 3.5. Vietnam’s Natural Gas Demand Forecast Bln m3 16.0 1% 4% 1% 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.0 9% 13.2 3% 2% 1% -2% 9% 4% 12.1 12.0 5% 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.1 10.2 10.7 9.8 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2013 2014 2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021 F2022 F2023 F2024 Dry natural gas potential consumption Rate of increase Source: PVE 2016. According to PVE, the demand for gas in Vietnam between 2016 and 2024 will increase from 11.0 bcm to 14.1 bcm, or at a rate of 3.2 percent per annum. 3.3.3.2 Gas demand in transportation In 2019, the total consumption of CNG as a transport fuel in Vietnam was estimated at 108 mcm. LNG is not currently used in Vietnam as vehicle fuel. CNG for transportation in the Southern region is supplied by eight filling stations owned by two companies: PV GAS South and CNG Vietnam. These companies sell the bulk of the CNG produced to industrial customers (steel, construction materials, knitwear, beverage manufacturers, etc.). NGV refueling business constitutes only a small part of PV GAS South and CNG Vietnam’s total output. All CNG filling stations are located in the cities of Ho Chi Minh City and Ba Ria-Vung Tau, and Binh Duong province. The total annual capacity of the stations is equal to 11,500 standard cubic meter per hour (Sm3/hour), or around 84 mcm per annum, which characterizes the existing NGV refueling infrastructure in Vietnam as operating largely under capacity with an average utilization rate of 5 Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 211 percent.1 The average age of the filling stations does not exceed five years, and the depreciation ratio is under 20 percent. TABLE 3.8. CNG Filling Stations in Vietnam, 2019 № Company Filling Capacity, City/ Address Station Sm3/hour Province 1 PV GAS Pho Quang 2,000 Ho Chi No. 2 Pho Quang Street, Tan Binh South JSC Minh City District 2 An Suong 2,000 Ho Chi An Suong bus station, Hoc Mon Minh City District 3 Tan Kien 2,000 Ho Chi Block 4B/12A, Hamlet 2, Tan Kien Minh City Commune, Binh Chanh District 4 The 2,000 Ho Chi The National University, Ho Chi Minh National Minh City City University station 5 Nguyen An 500 Ba Ria-Vung No. 449, Nguyen An Ninh Street, Ninh Tau Thang Nhat Ward, Vung Tau City 6 PCT 500 Ba Ria- No. 654, Nguyen An Ninh Street, Ward Vung Tau 8, Vung Tau City 7 Mobile 500 Ba Ria- No. 654, Nguyen An Ninh Street, Ward filling Vung Tau 8, Vung Tau City stations 8 CNG Combined 2,000 Binh Duong My Phuoc industrial zone Vietnam with a JSC station for (PV GAS industrial subsidiary) customers TOTAL - 11,500 - - Source: PVE 2016. Besides PV GAS South and CNG Vietnam JSC, there is another potential CNG supplier for the transport industry in Vietnam—PetroVietnam Low Pressure Gas Distribution JSC (PV GAS D). This company operates natural gas compression facilities in the Northern region for industrial use and has the potential to enter the Southern region’s NGV refueling market in the future. PV GAS D develops, invests in, and operates PVN’s low-pressure gas distribution system in industrial zones across the country. TABLE 3.9. CNG Production Facilities in Vietnam, 2019 Company Address Capacity, mcm/year Province PV GAS South My Xuan A industrial zone 70 Ba Ria-Vung Tau Hiep Phuoc industrial zone 8 Ho Chi Minh City CNG Vietnam Phu My I industrial zone, Tan Thanh 100 Ba Ria-Vung Tau District PV GAS D Tien Hai industrial zone, Tien Hai District No data Thai Binh (Northern region) Source: PVE 2016. 212 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution In 2013, PVN and Gazprom created a joint venture called PVGAZPROM Natural Gas for Vehicles to develop NGV refueling infrastructure in the Southern region of Vietnam.2 On October 15, 2015, the Investment Planning Department of Ho Chi Minh City issued the registration certificate. The objectives of the company creation include the construction of cryogenic and multi-fuel filling stations. FIGURE 3.6. CNG Filling Stations and Production Facilities in Southern Vietnam Source: PVE 2016. At present, CNG refueling infrastructure in the Southern region of Vietnam is largely underdeveloped. All the facilities are established by PV GAS and its daughter companies. Therefore, the refueling market can be characterized as monopolized. 3.4 Orientation for Development of CNG Buses 3.4.1 Agencies’ targets and road map Representatives of five Departments of Transport (DOTs)—in Hanoi, Hai Phong, Da Nang, Ho Chi Minh City, and Binh Duong—were consulted about some aspects of CNG bus policies, including: targets, road map, and supportive policies. The agencies’ recommendations are summarized in the following sections. These recommendations have not been mentioned in any official documents. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 213 TABLE 3.10. Recommendations for the Share of Low-Carbon Vehicles The Share of CNG Buses (%) Agency 2025 2030 2040 2045 2050 Hanoi DOT 5%–20% 5%–20% - - - Hai Phong DOT 5% 15% 35% - - Da Nang DOT 5%–15% 5%–15% - - - Ho Chi Minh City DOT N/A N/A - - - Binh Duong DOT 10%–20% 10%–20% 10%–20% - - Can Tho DOT 13.1% 8% 0% - - Source: Study team. According to the DOTs, the market share of public transport in big cities is meager. This is a barrier to developing low-emission vehicles because these vehicles have relatively high investment costs compared to conventional bus fleets. TABLE 3.11. Potential to Expand the CNG Bus Market in Vietnam Agency Demand for Using CNG Bus Mode Share of Public Transport Hanoi DOT Yes, high Low, less than 10% Hai Phong DOT Yes, low Low, less than 1% Da Nang DOT Yes, high Low, less than 1% Ho Chi Minh DOT N/A N/A Binh Duong DOT Yes, low Low, less than 2% Can Tho DOT Low Low, less than 1% Source: DOT survey. Initiatives in support of CNG-fueled public transport exist in four out of the five cities and one province. Ho Chi Minh City is considered as the leader on CNG buses in Vietnam. The city combines different policies to promote the market, including implementation of pilot projects, cooperation with NGV manufacturers, tax preferences, subsidies, and development planning of environment- friendly vehicles. TABLE 3.12. Policy Incentives for Transport Operators in Vietnam Mention CNG Bus Encourage Loan Infrastructure Agency Fee Support in Public Transport New Investor Support Support Planning Hanoi DOT √ √ √ √ √ Hai Phong DOT Ο Ο Ο Ο √ Da Nang DOT √ √ √ √ √ Ho Chi Minh DOT √ √ √ √ √ Binh Duong DOT √ √ √ √ √ Can Tho DOT Ο Ο Ο Ο ⊗ Source: Study team. Note: Ο = No, ⊗ = Yes (not implemented), √ = Yes (implemented). 214 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution 3.4.2 Demand for CNG buses from transport operators Most transport operators are skeptical about using CNG buses. Perceived disadvantages are basically of a technical and financial nature, as can be seen in Figure 3.7. FIGURE 3.7. Perceived Disadvantages of CNG Buses Source: Customer survey by study team. By far, the most mentioned barriers to the deployment of CNG buses are high investment costs, lack of refueling stations, and high gas prices. These are followed by high maintenance cost. While most companies mentioned being open to considering the purchase of a CNG bus, significant information effort is required to overcome the abovementioned barriers. The survey reveals that the transport companies want to convert to NGVs if they receive incentives from the government or gas investors. Three assumptions are established for transport operators who are operating urban buses, including offering low interest rates for loans, supporting vehicle purchase cost, and subsidizing the operation costs. Following each assumption, the number of NGVs is mentioned in Table 3.13. There are different bright spots for NGVs in some cities. For example, a good market signal is seen for CNG buses in Hanoi and Binh Duong. Transport operators in both cities were willing to develop CNG buses even if they received relatively little financial support from the local government. It is obvious that among the possible measures of market support aimed at a shift from using diesel vehicles to gas vehicles and proposed during the survey, the most effective are loan interest rate subsidies and supporting vehicle purchase cost. At the same time, transport operators require rather high values of such incentives, for example, more than 30 percent interest rate subsidies or more than 30 percent vehicle purchase cost. It is a fact that many transport operators worry about the risks of shifting to a new fuel source. They, therefore, need a financial guarantee to increase their beliefs in the new market. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 215 TABLE 3.13. Potential Demand for CNG Buses, Penetration Rate Hai Da Ho Chi Can Binh Parameter Hanoi Phong Nang Minh City Tho Duong Offering low ≥ 30% interest rate 50%– 10%– 40%– 40%–50% 10%– 50%– interest rates for 60% 20% 50% 20% 60% loans 20%–29% interest 40%– 0 0 0 0 40%– rate 50% 50% 10%–19% interest 30%– 0 0 0 0 30%– rate 40% 40% Less than 10% 10%– 0 0 0 0 10%– interest rate 20% 20% Supporting > 30% CAPEX 70%– 10%– 40%– 40%–50% 10%– vehicle 80% 20% 50% 20% purchase cost 20%–29% CAPEX 60%– 0 0 0 0 70% Less than 20% CAPEX 10%– 0 0 0 0 10%– 20% 20% Subsidizing Urban bus 10%– 10%– 40%– 100% 10%– 10%– operation costs 20% 20% 50% 20% 20% Source: Data processed from survey by study team. 3.4.3 Advantages and disadvantages of CNG buses compared to conventional and electric buses One of the important reasons to promote CNG buses is the contribution of these vehicles to the goal of reducing emissions (from the perspective of policy makers) or saving costs (from the perspective of transport operators). The analysis below compares the financial and environmental benefits of CNG buses compared to conventional and electric buses. 3.4.3.1 Environmental assessment of CNG buses The following graphs show the environmental impact of different types of buses per bus-km. Euro IV (diesel) or Enhanced Environmentally Friendly Vehicle (EEV) (CNG) buses reduce emissions of critical pollutants (NOx and PM2.5) by 50% to 80%. Electric buses have zero combustion emissions and also do not deteriorate over time. The following graph compares GHG emissions of different bus types used in Ho Chi Minh City, i.e., all data is localized. 216 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution FIGURE 3.8. Emissions of Pollutants from 8-Meter Urban Buses ^KϮŝŶŐͬŬŵ EKdžŝŶŐͬŬŵ Ϭ͘Ϭϰ ϮϬ͘ϬϬ Ϭ͘Ϭϯ ϭϱ͘ϬϬ Ϭ͘ϬϮ ϭϬ͘ϬϬ Ϭ͘Ϭϭ ϱ͘ϬϬ Ϭ͘ϬϬ Ϭ͘ϬϬ ƵƌŽ// ƵƌŽ// ƵƌŽ/s sE' ĞůĞĐƚƌŝĐ ƵƌŽ// ƵƌŽ// ƵƌŽ/s sE' ĞůĞĐƚƌŝĐ ĚŝĞƐĞů E' ĚŝĞƐĞů ĚŝĞƐĞů E' ĚŝĞƐĞů WDϮ͘ϱŝŶŐͬŬŵ Ϭ͘ϮϬ Ϭ͘ϭϱ Ϭ͘ϭϬ Ϭ͘Ϭϱ Ϭ͘ϬϬ ƵƌŽ// ƵƌŽ// ƵƌŽ/s sE' ĞůĞĐƚƌŝĐ ĚŝĞƐĞů E' ĚŝĞƐĞů Source: Grütter Consulting 2019. The following conclusions are made comparing GHG emissions of bus types in Ho Chi Minh City: CNG buses have lower PM2.5 emissions than diesel units but still have very high NOx emissions (higher than those of diesel buses). Many cities worldwide have a major air quality problem—NOx emission causing ground-level ozone formation with severe health problems. E-buses produce zero local emissions and thus offer an effective strategy to combat air pollution. E-buses in have 50 percent lower GHG emissions (well-to-wheel, including black carbon) than diesel Euro IV buses and 70 percent lower emissions than EEV CNG buses. They are, therefore, clearly an effective means to reduce GHG emissions from the transport sector. Emissions resulting from battery manufacturing for e-buses represent 2 percent to 5 percent of total GHG emissions from e-buses (the variance is due to different battery sets for e-buses depending on the technology chosen), i.e., the inclusion of battery manufacturing emissions does not significantly change the GHG reduction potential of e-buses. 3.4.3.2 Financial assessment of CNG buses Results presented in the table and the graph below show that CNG buses have 10 percent higher total cost of ownership (TCO) than fast-charged battery electric bus (BEB). They have a higher capital expenmditure (CAPEX) compared to the diesel bus. This may be the reason why bus operators are reluctant to support CNG buses without financial support from the city government. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 217 Table 3.14. Financial Results for Medium-Sized (8 meters) Buses Diesel Euro CNG EEV BEB Slow BEB Fast BEB Opportunity Parameter IV Bus Bus Charged Charged Charged CAPEX bus 67,000 81,000 190,000 140,000 140,000 Tax and registration fee 1,340 0 9,500 7,000 7,000 CAPEX infrastructure per 0 11,000 5,000 9,530 32,500 bus Replacement cost of 0 0 31,230 12,000 9,600 batterya Energy cost per annum 13,830 12,430 3,460 4,680 6,150 Maintenance cost bus per 5,110 5,310 4,090 4,090 4,090 annum Maintenance infrastructure 0 550 250 480 1,630 per annum Insurance average per 730 880 2,070 1,530 1,530 annum Finance cost average per 560 440 980 750 860 annum TCO per km 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.34 0.40 Source: Grütter Consulting 2019. Note: Maintenance infrastructure is 5 percent of CAPEX per annum. a: in year 8. Data presented in US$. FIGURE 3.9. Total Cost of Ownership of Medium Buses Source: Grütter Consulting 2019. 218 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution For large buses, the results are similar. TCO of CNG buses is equivalent to diesel buses and fast- charged BEBs but lower than slow-charged BEBs. TABLE 3.15. Financial Results for Large-Sized (12 meters) Buses Parameter Diesel Euro CNG EEV BEB Slow BEB Fast BEB Opportunity IV Bus Bus Charged Charged Charged CAPEX bus 116,000 138,000 340,000 240,000 240,000 Tax and registration fee 2,320 0 17,000 12,000 12,000 CAPEX infrastructure per bus 0 11,000 10,000 16,950 33,330 Replacement cost of batterya 0 0 52,800 20,400 14,400 Energy cost per annum 19,120 16,890 5,910 8,050 10,500 Maintenance cost bus per annum 7,260 7,810 5,810 5,810 5,810 Maintenance infrastructure per 0 550 500 850 1,670 annum Insurance average per annum 1,260 1,500 3,700 2,610 2,610 Finance cost average per annum 970 720 1,770 1,290 1,370 TCO per km 0.49 0.50 0.59 0.50 0.55 Source: Grütter Consulting 2019. Note: Maintenance infrastructure is 5 percent of CAPEX per annum. a: in year 8. Data presented in US$. FIGURE 3.10. Total Cost of Ownership of Large Buses Ϭ͘ϳϬ Ϭ͘ϲϬ Ϭ͘ϱϬ Ϭ͘ϰϬ h^ͬŬŵ Ϭ͘ϯϬ Ϭ͘ϮϬ Ϭ͘ϭϬ Ϭ͘ϬϬ ŝĞƐĞů E' ƐůŽǁĐŚĂƌŐĞĚ ĨĂƐƚĐŚĂƌŐĞĚ ŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJ ĐŚĂƌŐĞĚ WyďƵƐŝŶĐů͘ƚĂdžĂŶĚĨĞĞƐ WyŝŶĨƌĂƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞ ŶĞƌŐLJ DĂŝŶƚĞŶĂŶĐĞ DĂŝŶƚĞŶĂŶĐĞŝŶĨƌĂƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞ &ŝŶĂŶĐĞ /ŶƐƵƌĂŶĐĞ Source: Grütter Consulting 2019. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 219 3.4.4 Scenario recommendation 3.4.4.1 CNG bus development scenario for the period from 2021 to 2030 From the above analysis, it can be seen that although the expectation of the policy makers and transport authorities in the development of CNG buses are considerable in the period from 2021 to 2030, some cities expect that 5 percent to 20 percent of buses will use low-carbon fuel. However, the lack of clarity on supporting policies and the low public transport share will prevent the achievement of this target. In addition, the attention of policy makers is now much toward e-buses. For instance, the Ministry of Transport (MOT) sent Official Dispatch No. 10250/BGTVT-VT to the People’s Committees of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City on the operation of e-buses, emphasizing that the development of e-buses is consistent with the transport orientation and strategy of Vietnam. Currently, the policy incentives for CNG bus development are slightly different compared to conventional buses. Enterprises investing in CNG buses in Ho Chi Minh City enjoy an additional 2 percent interest rate difference on preferential loans (transport operators with diesel buses will pay 5 percent loan interest for investing vehicle while transport operators with CNG buses will pay 3 percent loan interest in the same period). However, the support for the cost of operating CNG buses is not significantly different from that for diesel buses. Furthermore, CNG buses are also facing the limitation of refueling stations, high gas prices, and high maintenance costs. Based on policy review and stakeholder consultations in five cities and one province, the number of CNG buses is forecasted in Hanoi, Hai Phong, Da Nang, Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong, and Can Tho. Currently, the total bus fleet in these five cities and one province accounts for about 36 percent of the total bus fleet nationwide. However, only two of the five cities and one province operate CNG buses: Ho Chi Minh City (495 units), Hanoi (129 units), and Binh Duong (84 units). In fact, the potential market of CNG buses is also concentrated in these five cities and one province. Based on the survey results to find out the willingness of transport operators to switch from diesel to CNG, the proportion of CNG buses is calculated for each city as follows: TABLE 3.16. Projection of CNG Buses in Five Cities and One Province in Vietnam City/Province 2020 (units) 2025 (units) 2030 (units) Ho Chi Minh City (city) 496 910 1,430 Hanoi (city) 121 387 601 Hai Phong (city) 0 7 14 Binh Duong (province) 55 121 122 Da Nang (city) 0 7 18 Can Tho (city) 0 4 14 Total 672 1,435 2,199 Source: Study team. Results from the interviews show that the number of CNG buses in Vietnam may reach 1,435 units by 2025 and 2,200 in 2030. 220 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution TABLE 3.17. Development of CNG Buses versus Updated NDC Measures Assumption in This Study Assumption in Updated NDC E20 - Promotion of CNG buses in By 2025, the number of CNG buses By 2030, the number of CNG buses transportation will reach 1,435 units will reach 623 units, including 423 in By 2030, the number of CNG buses Ho Chi Minh City and 200 in Hanoi will reach 2,200 units Source: Study team. 3.4.4.2 Supportive policies to implement the scenario Table 3.18 highlights the key economic and information instruments for the promotion of CNG buses. These instruments are outlined to provide information on the incentives available to support private investment in both vehicle fleet and refueling stations and to show whether they are targeted at public transport subsectors. TABLE 3.18. Supportive Policy Tools Economic • Bus operation subsidy • Fuel cost support (subsidies and efficiency upgrades) linked to CNG buses • Grants, tax exemption, and price support to CNG bus companies • Incentives for domestic and international investors in the expansion of the refueling station—corporate income tax exemptions and preferenctial rates, import duty exemptions (for first-time imports of equipment and facilities for the development of public transport), land rental exemptions and reductions, accelerated depreciation of fixed assets Information • Clean-energy vehicle planning and refueling infrastructure network development planing to 2030 and a vision to 2050 • List of investment projects in public transport Source: Study team. Bus operation subsidy: The existing bus tariff is too low for bus companies, especially CNG bus companies, to recoup their costs. Hence, the government should provide direct subsidies to the bus companies based on the number of passengers carried on certain routes. For the cities that already have a public transport subsidy policy, an increase in CNG bus subsidies for the first three years is needed to encourage them to enter the CNG bus market. Fuel cost support: The government has already implemented subsidies for fossil fuels. The largest component of these subsidies is allocated to electricity, with a much smaller portion supporting transportation through consumer subsidies for gasoline and producer subsidies in the form of reduced import tariffs for petroleum products. To promote CNG buses, the government should provide the primary CNG subsidies to transport operators to increase their affordability in the context of rising energy prices and to support the transport of citizens. On the other hand, the government can reduce tariffs for gas suppliers who sell CNG to transport operators. Tax exemptions and incentives: Tax deductions and exemptions are necessary to attract international and domestic investors to develop a refueling station network. For example, investments in refueling infrastructure could benefit from a five-year income tax holiday, in addition Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 221 to general foreign direct investment (FDI) tax exemptions and reductions on corporate income tax, import duty, and land rental charges. Grants and concessional loans: Part of the perceived private investment shortfall, particularly for transport infrastructure projects, owes to the long time periods over which private sectors need to wait to see profit from their investment. Therefore, the government should support interest rates on commercial loans for investment in cleaner technology buses and refueling infrastructure. Guarantees: Loan guarantees have been made available to support the purchase of new buses for other investment by state-owned enterprise (SOE) (or join stock) bus companies. Land incentives: Government support includes covering the costs of ground clearance and exemption from land-use levies. In general, investment in CNG bus infrastructure should be considered as an investment-incentive sector and exempted from land-use fees. These exemptions also apply to pilot public-private partnership (PPP) initiatives. Infrastructure planning: The MOT or DOTs should be responsible for forming clean-energy vehicle development planning while the MOIT coordinates with the MOT to establish the development plan of the refueling infrastructure network. Investment and resource information: Based on the plans of clean-energy vehicles and refueling stations, the city government provides the basic information about services in the public transport, including a list of investment project opportunities to inform potential investors. 222 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution REFERENCES ADB (Asian Development Bank). 2015. Viet Nam Energy Sector Assessment, Strategy, and Road Map. December. Manila, Philippines: Asian Development Bank. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/ institutional-document/178616/vie-energy-road-map.pdf. Grütter Consulting. 2019. “E-buses for Ho Chi Minh City: E-Bus Technologies and the Financial and Environmental Impact of E-Buses for HCMC.” Presentation to the Ho Chi Minh City Department of Transport, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, September 2019. MOIT (Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam). 2018. National Energy Efficiency Program (VNEEP) in Period 2019–2030. Final report. December 2018. MOIT (Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam). 2019. “Họp báo Chính phủ thường kỳ tháng 4/2019.” (“Regular Government Press Conference, April 2019”). https://moit. gov.vn/tin-tuc/bao-chi-voi-nganh-cong-thuong/hop-bao-chinh-phu-thuong-ky-thang-4-2019. html. Oh, Jung Eun, Maria Cordeiro, John Allen Rogers, Khanh Nguyen, Daniel Bongardt, Ly Tuyet Dang, and Vu Anh Tuan. 2019. “Addressing Climate Change in Transport: Volume 1: Pathway to Low-Carbon Transport.” Vietnam Transport Knowledge Series, World Bank, Hanoi. https://openknowledge. worldbank.org/handle/10986/32411. PetroTimes. 2021. “Giải bài toán sản lượng khai thác dầu khí” (“Solving the Problem of Oil and Gas Production Output”). October 27, 2021. https://petrovietnam.petrotimes.vn/giai-bai-toan-san- luong-khai-thac-dau-khi-630780.html. PVE (PetroVietnam Engineering). 2016. Production and Use of Natural Gas As Engine Fuel at the Area of Socialist Republic of Vietnam. Feasibility study report. Wood Mackenzie. 2015. Vietnam Power Markets Long-Term Outlook 2015. NOTES 1 Maximum annual capacity is calculated under the assumption that the facilities operate 20 hours a day, 360 days a year. 2 Gazprom. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 223 4. BAU Development The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario is developed to forecast greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions based on statistics of transport activities and macroeconomic assumptions. The BAU scenario needs to be built on an appropriate model that has the ability to analyze in detail the activities of the transport sector in the bottom-up direction, examining the effects of policies on GHG emissions. This project inherits the BAU scenario used to calculate the transport sector’s contribution in the updated Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) report. Some of the key outcomes of the BAU scenario will be presented in this part of the report. 4.1 Methodology of BAU Development The BAU scenario, also known as the “normal scenario,” “baseline scenario,” or “no mitigation scenario,” is developed as a basis for calculating the emissions reduction potential of the measures in the transport sector. This scenario includes only measures adopted and implemented before 2020, which is considered a less ambitious scenario. In addition to current measures, the BAU scenario also takes into account expected technological developments and socioeconomic development projections for the country (population, GDP, etc.). To ensure the comparability between the achievements of policy objectives, the assumptions and data sources used for the BAU in this study remain the same as those used for the BAU in the updated NDC 2020. The assumptions in the BAU scenario are shown in Appendix C of this report. The calculation method of GHG emissions in the BAU scenario is summarized in the figure below. FIGURE 4.1. GHG Emissions Calculation Method in BAU Source: GIZ’s 2018 Advancing Transport Climate Strategies Project. 224 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution 4.2 Input Data of BAU Scenario The input data of the BAU scenario is divided into five main categories: general data; road data; rail data; inland waterway, coastal data; and aviation data. These data are similar to Vietnam’s updated 2020 NDC. As this study focuses on biofuel for road vehicles and CNG buses, only road data are mentioned. TABLE 4.1. General Data No. Data Source 1 GDP growth rate Resolution No. 142/2016/QH13 “The approval of revisions to the national power development plan from 2011 to 2020 with visions extended to 2030” 2 GDP of the transport subsectors (%) General Statistics Office/Central Institute for Economic Management (GSO/CIEM) interpolates for 2020–30; 2030–40; 2040–50 3 Annual population growth rate GSO website: https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/population 4 Share of urban and rural population GSO website: (%) https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/population 5 Household size (urban and rural) GSO 2010, 2014, and 2018 6 Price of gasoline and diesel (before Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Socialist Republic of blending) Vietnam’s (MOIT) website: http://minhbach.moit.gov.vn/?page=petroleum_ define&key=petroleum_ketcau 7 Share of ethanol into gasoline and Decision No. 53/2012/QĐ-TTg “Roadmap for Application of Ratios share of biodiesel into diesel (in the for Blending Biofuels with Conventional Fuels” future) 8 Fuel prices (blending) MOIT’s website: http://minhbach.moit.gov.vn/?page=petroleum_ define&key=petroleum_ketcau Source: Compiled by study team. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 225 TABLE 4.2. Road Data No. Data Source 1 Proportion of new sale vehicles [motorcycle, VAMA 2015–2017: car, light vehicle commercial (LCV), heavy http://vama.org.vn/vn/bao-cao-ban-hang.html commercial vehicles (HCV)] (accessed July 10, 2018) 2 Proportion of motorcycle, car, LCV, and HCV VAMA 2015–2017: http://vama.org.vn/vn/bao-cao-ban-hang.html (accessed July 10, 2018) 3 Age of 50% retirement Decree No. 95/2009/NĐ-CP & Circular No. 21/2010/TT- BGTVT of MOT 4 Vehicle operation (km/year) Vietnam Register (2017), car survey at register center 5 Fuel economy (L/km) European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme/ European Environment Agency (EMEP/EEA) 6 Average trip length Calculation by VISUM model for BRT and metro JICA 2015 7 Change of vehicle operation (% km/year) Calculation by VISUM JICA 2015 8 Vehicle occupancy (passenger) JICA (2015); vehicle axle loading survey by mobile weighing stations in Hai Phong 2015 9 Load factors (cargo) Calculation by VISUM JICA 2015 10 Average speed (urban, rural, and highway) Calculation by VISUM Source: Compiled study team. 4.3 Growth Projection in the Transport Sector Under BAU 4.3.1 Projection of passenger-kilometers traveled As a consequence of the fast growth of the population and economies in Vietnam, passenger- kilometers traveled (PKT) will be about 840 billion by 2030. Seventy-five percent of passenger transport is by motorcycles and cars, while other road vehicles account for nearly 20 percent. Other subsectors, including railways, inland waterways, and aviation, account for only about 5 percent. 226 Final report – Technical Assistant - Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution FIGURE 4.2. Passenger-Kilometers Travelled (PKT) in Vietnam ϵϬϬ͘Ϭ ϴϬϬ͘Ϭ ϳϬϬ͘Ϭ ϲϬϬ͘Ϭ ŝůůŝŽŶW