The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project Phase 2 (P173804) Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project Phase 2 (P173804) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Tajikistan | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing (IPF) | FY 2020 | Seq No: 9 | Archived on 04-Dec-2024 | ISR01073 Implementing Agencies: Barqi Tojik, Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, Ministry of Finance 1. OBJECTIVE 1.1 Development Objective Original Development Objective (Approved as part of Approval package on 25-Jun-2020) The objective of the Project is to rehabilitate and increase the generating capacity of six power generating units of Nurek HPP and improve their efficiency. Has the Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? Yes Current Development Objective (Approved as part of Restructuring package Seq. 1 on 08-Jan-2024) The objectives of the Project are to rehabilitate and increase the generating capacity of Nurek hydropower plant, improve its efficiency, and strengthen the safety of the Nurek dam. 2. COMPONENTS Name Component 1: Rehabilitation of the five generating units, the key infrastructural components of the plant, and replacement of autotransformers:(Cost 286,700,000.00) Component 2: Technical assistance:(Cost 11,000,000.00) Component 3: Enhancement of dam safety:(Cost 30,000,000.00) 3. OVERALL RATINGS Name Previous Current Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Moderate Moderate Dec 04, 2024 Page 1 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project Phase 2 (P173804) 4. KEY ISSUES & STATUS 4.1 Implementation Status and Key Decisions In view of the implementation delays, the project was restructured in December 2023, which has extended closing date of phase 2 to December 2032, revised number of units to be rehabilitated under Nurek phase 1 and Nurek phase 2 project to 4 units and 5 units respectively. Rehabilitation of Nurek generating unit is planned sequentially (one unit a year) to ensure generation and supply to local demand and meet export obligation. The work on first unit under phase 2 (Unit E) will only start in Autumn 2026 after completion of the four units under phase 1. 5. SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL Rating at Approval Last Approved Rating Risk Category Approval Package - ISR Seq. 08 - 29 May Proposed Rating 26 Jun 2020 2024 Political and Governance Moderate Moderate Moderate Macroeconomic Low Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies Low Low Low Technical Design of Project or Program Low Low Low Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Moderate Moderate Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary Substantial Moderate Substantial Environment and Social Substantial Substantial Substantial Stakeholders Low Low Low Overall Moderate Moderate Moderate Dec 04, 2024 Page 2 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project Phase 2 (P173804) 6. RESULTS 6.1 PDO Indicators by PDO Outcomes Rehabilitate and increase the generating capacity of Nurek hydropower plant Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Closing Period Indicator Name Value Month/Year Value Date Value Date Value Month/Year 0.00 May/2020 0.00 26-Apr-2024 0.00 26-Apr-2024 1,875.00 Dec/2032 Comments on As rehabilitation of generating units is planned sequentially (one unit each year) to ensure Generation capacity of energy achieving targets generation and supply to local demand and meet export obligation, the work on first unit in constructed or rehabilitated Phase 2 (Unit E) will only start in Autumn 2026. Therefore, result indicator of phase 2 will only (Megawatt) be updated in 2027 . Hydropower generation 0.00 May/2020 0.00 26-Apr-2024 0.00 26-Apr-2024 1,875.00 Dec/2032 capacity rehabilitated under the project (Megawatt) 6,250.00 Dec/2019 6,250.00 26-Apr-2024 6,250.00 26-Apr-2024 6,765.00 Dec/2032 Comments on This indicator measures the amount of electricity supplied by the five units of Nurek HPP, which Estimated total annual achieving targets were rehabilitated under the project, to the power transmission network. electricity generation of five units included in the scope of the project (Gigawatt-hour (GWh)) Based on reduction in total number of units to be rehabilitated under phase 2 (from 6 to 5), the annual target is also reduced accordingly. Page 3 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project Phase 2 (P173804) Rehabilitation of generating units is planned sequentially (one unit each year) to ensure generation and supply to local demand and meet export obligation, the work on first unit in Phase 2 (Unit E) will only start in Autumn 2026. Therefore, result indicator of phase 2 will only be updated in 2027 . Improve its efficiency Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Closing Period Indicator Name Value Month/Year Value Date Value Date Value Month/Year 0.00 May/2020 0.00 26-Apr-2024 0.00 26-Apr-2024 9,720,000.00 Dec/2032 Comments on - As Nurek plant is connected to the central grid total population excluding GBAO province achieving targets population would benefits from any improvement in its generation/rehabilitation of its each unit. People provided with new or - Both projects (Nurek Phase 1 and Nurek Phase 2) will benefit total population (excluding GABO improved electricity service province population 2.3%). (Number) - Rehabilitation of generating units is planned sequentially (one unit each year) to ensure generation and supply to local demand and meet export obligation, the work on first unit in Phase 2 (Unit E) will only start in Autumn 2026. Therefore, result indicator of phase 2 will only be updated in 2027 . People provided with 0.00 0.00 0.00 4,072,000.00 new or improved electricity service - Page 4 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project Phase 2 (P173804) Female (Number) 0.00 Dec/2019 0.00 26-Apr-2024 0.00 26-Apr-2024 515.00 Dec/2032 Comments on This indicator measures the increase in total generation of rehabilitated units due to average achieving targets efficiency increase of 2 percent Estimated increase of total annual electricity generation of rehabilitated units due to efficiency improvements As rehabilitation of generating units is planned sequentially (one unit each year) to ensure (Gigawatt-hour (GWh)) generation and supply to local demand and meet export obligation, the work on first unit in Phase 2 (Unit E) will only start in Autumn 2026. Therefore, result indicator of phase 2 will only be updated in 2027 . Strengthen the safety of the Nurek dam Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Closing Period Indicator Name Value Month/Year Value Date Value Date Value Month/Year No Dec/2023 No, Dam safety 26-Apr-2024 No, Dam safety 26-Apr-2024 Yes Dec/2030 assessment is assessment is underway underway under phase 1 under phase 1 by project by project management management Improved dam safety against consultant. consultant. geological and seismic Assessment is Assessment is hazards (Text) expected to be expected to be completed in completed in December December 2024, and 2024, and preparation of preparation of design, bidding design, bidding document and document and Page 5 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project Phase 2 (P173804) launch of launch of tendering is tendering is expected by expected by June 2025. June 2025. 6.2 Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Component 1: Rehabilitation of the five generating units, the key infrastructural components of the plant, and replacement of autotransformers Indicator Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Closing Period Name Value Month/Year Value Date Value Date Value Month/Year Cumulative 0.00 May/2020 0.00 26-Apr-2024 0.00 26-Apr-2024 5.00 Dec/2032 number of Comments on The P1 contract under phase 1 was amended to include rehabilitation of the remaining units in the contract. Rehabilitation generating achieving targets of generating units is planned sequentially. The work on first unit in Phase 2 (Unit E) will only start in Autumn 2026. units rehabilitated (Number) Rehabilitation No Nov/2023 No 26-Apr-2024 No 26-Apr-2024 Yes Jun/2027 of first unit Comments on The P1 contract under phase 1 was amended to include rehabilitation of the remaining units in the contract. Rehabilitation under Nurek achieving targets of Unit E is planned to start in Sep/Oct 2026 and completed in Sep/Oct 2027. Phase 2 (Unit E/5) is completed. (Yes/No) Rehabilitation No Nov/2023 No 26-Apr-2024 No 26-Apr-2024 Yes Jun/2028 of 2nd Unit Comments on Rehabilitation of the unit is added to P1 contract as part of amendment 7. Rehabilitation of Unit F is planned to start in Oct under phase 2 achieving targets 2027 and complete in Oct 2028. (Unit 6/F) is Page 6 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project Phase 2 (P173804) completed (Yes/No) 0.00 May/2020 0.00 26-Apr-2024 0.00 26-Apr-2024 45.00 Dec/2032 Comments on achieving targets Avoided CO2 emissions during the project lifetime This indicator measures the CO2 emissions avoided during the useful lifetime of the five units of Nurek HPP given that (Metric ton) substantial share of electricity from this Project would have been replaced by coal and gas-fired generation if the Project was not rehabilitated The indicator will be updated upon completion of first unit under phase 2 (expected in Sep/Oct 2027). No May/2020 No 26-Apr-2024 No 26-Apr-2024 Yes Dec/2032 Rehabilitation Comments on This indicator measures the progress with rehabilitation of the Nurek bridge of Nurek achieving targets bridge completed (Yes/No) Feasibility study is completed, however due to project financing gap the activity is on-hold. Procurement No May/2020 No 30-Apr-2024 No 30-Apr-2024 Yes Dec/2032 of machinery Comments on This activity is on-hold due to budget gap under the project. Page 7 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project Phase 2 (P173804) for Nurek HPP achieving targets completed (Yes/No) Component 2: Technical assistance Indicator Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Closing Period Name Value Month/Year Value Date Value Date Value Month/Year Percentage of 11.00 May/2020 14.10 30-Apr-2024 14.10 30-Apr-2024 17.00 Dec/2030 women Comments on This indicator will measure the progress with closing gender gap in employment by BT employed by achieving targets BT (Percentage) Project No Nov/2023 Yes 30-Apr-2024 Yes 30-Apr-2024 Yes Dec/2026 Management Comments on PMC is hired under phase 1 that support monitoring and supervision of the contractors. Their contract will be extended at Consultant achieving targets the end of phase 1 in January 2027 to continue their service for supervision of phase 2 activities. (PMC) is hired for Nurek phase 2 (Yes/No) To be May/2020 67.4% The result 30-Apr-2024 67.4% The result 30-Apr-2024 At least 75 percent. Dec/2030 Percentage of defined shows arithmetic shows arithmetic citizens who by the unweighted average unweighted average believe that end of of survey of survey the Project 2021 respondent groups respondent groups has (Local community, (Local community, established HPP Employee, HPP Employee, effective government government engagement employee and employee and processes NGOs). Survey was NGOs). Survey was (Text) conducted between conducted between Jan – Mar 2024, and Jan – Mar 2024, and Page 8 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project Phase 2 (P173804) draft report is under draft report is under review. review. Comments on This indicator will monitor progress with citizen engagement activities. achieving targets Component 3: Enhancement of dam safety Indicator Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Closing Period Name Value Month/Year Value Date Value Date Value Month/Year Contractor for No Nov/2023 No 30-Apr-2024 No 30-Apr-2024 Yes Sep/2025 dam safety Comments on Procurement of the contractor for the civil work will be initiated in 2025 upon completion of the dam safety assessment civil work is achieving targets and design which is underway in phase 1. hired (Yes/No) Dam Safety No Nov/2023 No 30-Apr-2024 No 30-Apr-2024 Yes Dec/2030 Civil works for Comments on Dam safety assessment is underway which will define the scope and design of civil work. Procurement process of enhancement achieving targets contractor for the civil work contract will be initiated in 2025. of safety against geological and seismic hazards are completed. (Yes/No) Page 9 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project Phase 2 (P173804) Page 10 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project Phase 2 (P173804) 7. DATA ON FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 7.1 Cumulative Disbursements 7.2 Disbursements (by loan) Loan/Credit/TF Status Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed Historical Disbursed IDA-D6850 Effective 50.00 48.89 0.00 13.22 35.42 27.18% 50.00 IDA-D9540 Effective 65.00 61.39 0.00 0.00 61.39 0% 65.00 7.3 Key Dates (by loan) Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Signing Effectiveness Orig. Closing Rev. Closing IDA-D6850 Effective 26-Jun-2020 03-Dec-2020 13-May-2021 31-Dec-2030 31-Dec-2032 Dec 04, 2024 Page 10 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project Phase 2 (P173804) IDA-D9540 Effective 21-Dec-2021 17-May-2022 15-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2030 31-Dec-2032 8. KEY DATES Key Events Planned Actual Approval 26-Jun-2020 26-Jun-2020 Effectiveness 13-May-2021 13-May-2021 Mid-Term Review No. 01 31-May-2027 Operation Closing/Cancellation 31-Dec-2032 9. RESTRUCTURING HISTORY Restructuring Level 2 Approved on 03-Dec-2023 10. ASSOCIATED OPERATION(S) There are no associated operations Dec 04, 2024 Page 11 of 11