Poverty & Equity Brief October 2024 NAMIBIA Strong economic growth, improvements in labor incomes and in educational attainment, and the expansion of social protection programs helped significantly reduce Namibia’s poverty rate between 2003/04 and 2015/16 (the last available poverty survey). The national official poverty rate declined by more than half, from 37.5 to 17.4 percent, with larger improvements occurring since 2009/10. Based on the International Poverty Line (IPL) of $2.15 per person per day (2017 PPP), the international poverty rate similarly fell from 35.9 percent in 2003 to 15.6 percent in 2015. Poverty remains high under the Upper Middle-Income Country (UMIC) poverty line of $6.85 per person per day, although also declining from 78 percent in 2003 to 57.3 percent in 2015. Namibia is one of the most unequal countries in the world, after South Africa. Although inequality fell between 2003 and 2015, the reduction was relatively small, despite several redistributive measures and social protection programs. The Gini index for per capita consumption was 59.1 in 2015, down from 61 in 2009 and 63.3 in 2003. In addition, while urban inequality declined in the period, rural inequality increased, although it remained at lower levels than in urban areas. The World Bank’s new measure of the Prosperity Gap shows that incomes in Namibia need to be multiplied on average by 6.8 (as compared to the world average of 5) to bring all Namibians to the global prosperity standard of $25 per day (2017 PPP). Falling commodity prices, weak trade growth, and weak demand, made much worse by the COVID-19 pandemic, led to negative real GDP per capita growth between 2016 and 2020. Unemployment remained stubbornly high at 19.9 percent of the 15- to 64-year-old labor force in 2018 (last Labor Force Survey) and even higher among women and youth. Namibia's polarized labor market consists of a small, highly sophisticated formal sector and a large, relatively unproductive subsistence agriculture sector, where most of the poor work. Poverty is projected to have increased since 2015, the year of the last available household survey, reaching 20.2 percent ($2.15 poverty line) in 2020 (or 62.7 percent under the $6.85 poverty line). The new poor in 2020 were more likely to be male, young workers, less educated, and/or in larger urban households. Although the economic recovery in 2021 was slow, economic growth in 2022 and 2023 (5.3 and 4.2 percent, respectively) was stronger than expected, driven by the mining sector, including investments in oil exploration, and restocking of inventories from post-pandemic lows. GDP growth is projected to moderate to 3.1 percent in 2024, driven by weaker export demand, the impact of drought, and tight monetary conditions. Household consumption growth is expected to benefit from lower inflation of 4.6 percent in 2024. The poverty rate under the IPL is projected to decrease to 17.2 percent in 2024 (59.6 percent for the $6.85 line), reaching pre-pandemic levels but remaining high. $2.15 Poverty Rate $6.85 Poverty Rate Gini Index Prosperity Gap 2015 2015 2015 2015 15.6% 57.3% 59.1 6.8 Poverty Rate Inequality 80 70 70 60 60 50 Poverty Rate (%) Gini Index 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 2005 2010 2015 2005 2010 2015 $2.15 Poverty Rate $3.65 Poverty Rate $6.85 Poverty Rate Gini Index Poverty at Different Lines Poverty Line Number of Poor Rate Year (Thousands) (%)   National Poverty Line 422.0 17.4 2015         International Poverty Line ($2.15/day) 356.5 15.6 2015         Lower Middle Income Class Poverty Line ($3.65/day) 759.1 33.3 2015         Upper Middle Income Class Poverty Line ($6.85/day) 1,308.4 57.3 2015         Multidimensional Poverty Measure   27.5 2015         Group and Multidimensional Poverty Poverty by Group Poverty Rate (%) Multidimensional Poverty Components (% of Pop.)   Urban population 7.3 Daily income less than US$2.15 per person 15.6 Rural population 23.0 At least one school-aged child is not enrolled in school 6.1 Males 15.2 No adult has completed primary education 11.3 Females 16.0 No access to limited-standard drinking water 9.2 0 to 14 years old 20.5 No access to limited-standard sanitation 68.3 15 to 64 years old 12.5 No access to electricity 53.8 65 and older 16.4 Without education (16+) 28.3 Primary education (16+) 19.6 Secondary education (16+) 8.5 Tertiary/post-secondary education (16+) N/A* Note: Data for the "Poverty by Group" table is derived from a 2015 survey and data for the "Multidimensional Poverty Components" table is derived from a 2015 survey. The rates in the "Poverty by Group" table above are shown at the $2.15 international line. "N/A" denotes a missing/removed value, while "N/A*" refers to a value which was removed due to having fewer than 30 observations. Poverty Data & Methodology The Namibia Household Income and Expenditure Survey (NHIES) is the main official source of data to assess monetary and non-monetary wellbeing of Namibians, including the computation of inequality indicators. The NHIES has been conducted in 1993–94, 2003–04, 2009–10, and 2015–16. The latest NHIES was developed with the support of the World Bank. The new 2024-25 NHIES is currently under preparation, also with World Bank support. The 2003–04, 2009–10, and 2015–16 surveys have the same set of consumption questions and are thus comparable. Overall, the household surveys are considered to be of good quality and are openly shared, but increasing the frequency of NHIES surveys is an area for improvement. Poverty lines are based on the cost-of-basic-needs approach. The current poverty line is determined based on the daily caloric requirement of 2,100 calories per person per day. Consumption expenditure per adult equivalent is used as the welfare measure to capture differences in need by age and economies of scale in consumption. Harmonization The numbers presented in this brief are based on the SSAPOV database. SSAPOV is a database of harmonized nationally representative household surveys managed by Sub-Saharan Team for Statistical Development. It contains more than 100 surveys covering 45 out of the 48 countries in the SSA region. The three countries not covered in the database are Eritrea, Equatorial Guinea, and Somalia. Terms of use of the data adhere to agreements with the original data producers. Africa Eastern & Southern Poverty Economist: Carolina Diaz-Bonilla