CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
MAIN DOCUMENT
Resilient and Inclusive Growth: Sustainable Solutions
for CAR's Future
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
CCDR @GLANCE
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
9 MAJOR RECOMMENDATIONS
# Keyword Brief Natural Capital Human Capital Physical Capital Institutions,
Description Impact Impact Impact Governance
Impact
1 Infrastructure Enhance Supports Ensures safety Critical in Strengthens policy
Resilience resilience to ecosystem and well-being by safeguarding and and planning
natural disasters resilience by reducing disaster rebuilding frameworks for
in key protecting natural risk infrastructure like disaster
infrastructure buffers roads and preparedness
buildings
2 Renewable Foster renewable Reduces Improves quality Expands Facilitates
Energy energy environmental of life through infrastructure for regulatory
partnerships for degradation by reliable energy sustainable changes and
rural promoting clean access energy sources fosters public-
electrification energy private
partnerships
3 Climate Develop a Raises awareness Empowers Minimal direct Enhances
Education national climate of the importance individuals with impact, supports educational
change education of preserving knowledge and informed usage of policies and
and natural habitats skills for physical resources integrates climate
communication sustainability literacy
strategy
4 Water Implement Directly impacts Enhances public Involves Reforms policies
Management sustainable water water health and access infrastructure related to water
resource conservation and to clean water development for usage and
management management of water management
reforms aquatic systems conservation and practices
management
5 Climate Increase Minimal direct Builds capacity by Supports Improves the
Finance coordination for impact, supports financing health infrastructure efficiency and
Coordination optimizing climate funded and education projects through effectiveness of
finance environmental projects related to better-funded financial resource
projects climate initiatives allocation
6 Financial Promote financial Facilitates Increases Encourages Strengthens
Inclusion inclusion to investments in accessibility to investments in financial policies
enhance climate natural capital financial services resilient and systems to
resilience projects like for economic infrastructure support
investments reforestation stability sustainable
development
7 Community Mobilize Enhances local Empowers Supports the Strengthens
Monitoring community-based environmental communities with maintenance and governance
monitoring for management and oversight and effectiveness of through
climate projects conservation active physical projects community
efforts participation like local dams engagement and
accountability
8 Sustainable Develop Enhances natural Supports job Strengthens Bolsters
Management comprehensive capital by creation and skills physical capital institutional
of the Natural policies for the promoting development in through improved capacity for
sustainable sustainable land sustainable resource governance and
Capital
development and use and industries efficiency and ensures
management of responsible innovation in compliance with
natural capital, by resource natural resource- sustainable
integrating management based industries practices
economic (including forests)
development with
environmental
sustainability
9 Agricultural Strengthen Improves land use Supports farmer Enhances Promotes policy
Resilience agricultural and increases welfare and agricultural shifts towards
resilience through biodiversity community infrastructure like sustainable
climate-smart sustenance irrigation systems agricultural
practices practices
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Contents
CCDR @GLANCE ....................................................................................................................... 3
List of Acronyms ........................................................................................................................... 8
Acknowledgement ..................................................................................................................... 11
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 12
1. The Link Development-Fragility-Climate Change ..................................................... 23
1.1. Economic and social development ................................................................................ 23
1.2. Climate Change .............................................................................................................. 24
1.3. Fragility ........................................................................................................................... 26
1.3.1. Conceptual Framework: Development-Fragility-Climate Nexus ............................................ 27
1.4. The way forward ............................................................................................................. 28
2. Climate Commitments, Policies, and Capacities ..................................................... 31
2.1. Navigating the Nexus Through Institutional and Governance Reform ........................... 31
2.2. Development Aspirations ................................................................................................ 32
2.3. Climate Commitments .................................................................................................... 33
2.4. Climate commitments and national and sectoral strategies.......................................... 34
2.4.1. Climate-informed legislation and coordination mechanisms.................................................. 34
2.4.2. Institutional readiness for Climate Change Action .................................................................. 35
2.4.3. Enhancing Institutional Frameworks for Effective Climate Action .......................................... 37
2.5. Climate Finance .............................................................................................................. 38
2.6. Solutions to enhance climate commitments, policies, and strategies ........................... 39
2.7. The Way Forward on the Nexus ...................................................................................... 40
3. Wealth, Climate and Fragility: A Sector Perspective ............................................ 42
3.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 42
3.2. Understanding CAR's Vicious Cycle................................................................................ 42
3.2.1. Development and Fragility in CAR ........................................................................................... 42
3.2.2. Climate Vulnerability ................................................................................................................. 43
3.2.3. Human Capital: Education and Health .................................................................................... 49
3.2.4. Physical Capital: Urban Development, Transport, and Energy .............................................. 53
3.2.5. Social Dimensions of Climate Change and the Risk of Conflicts .......................................... 58
3.2.6. Private sector, Climate, Development and Fragility ............................................................... 61
4. Macro and Distributional Impacts ............................................................................. 63
4.1. Key Takeaways ............................................................................................................... 63
4.2. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 64
4.3. Methods Used and Approach ......................................................................................... 65
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
4.4. Main Findings ................................................................................................................. 66
4.4.1. The Prerequisite of Economic Development ............................................................................ 66
4.4.2. How Adequate Climate Measures Would Bring Net Gains ...................................................... 71
4.5. Integrating Policies for Development and Climate ......................................................... 75
5. Summary and main recommendations .................................................................... 77
5.1. Summary......................................................................................................................... 77
5.2. Main Recommendations .................................................................................................... 78
References ............................................................................................................................. 81
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
List of Acronyms
AEZs Agro-Ecological Zones
AfCFTA African Continental Free Trade Area
ARSEC Electricity Sector Regulatory Agency
ASP Aspirational Scenario with Planned Adaptations
ASP-CR Aspirational Scenario with Planned Adaptations and Climate Resilience
BAU Business-as-Usual
CAR Central African Republic
CBMT Medium-Term Budget Framework
CCDR Climate and Development Report
CCIA Climate Change Institutional Assessment
CC-MFMod Climate Change Macro-Fiscal Model
CEM Country Economic Memorandum
CER Certified Emission Reduction
CKE Climate Knowledge for Education
C-REP Climate Resilience in Education Program
CSA Climate-Smart Agriculture
CSCTP Climate-Smart Construction Training Program
DPAN National Agricultural Policy Document
DRM Disaster Risk Management
EHCVM Harmonized Household Living Conditions Survey
ESCRP Education Sector Climate Resilience Policy
FCS Fragile and Conflict State
FCV Fragility, conflict, and violence
PFM Public Financial Management
GCP-F Global Challenge Program: Forests for Development, Climate, and Biodiversity
GDP Gross Domestic Product
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
GHG Greenhouse gases
IDPs Internally Displaced Peoples
IFC International Finance Corporation
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ITMOs Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes
IWRM Integrated water resource management
LTS Long-Term Strategies
MDAs Ministry Department Agencies
MEA Multilateral Environment Agreement
MESD Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development
MFB Ministry of Finance and Budget
M&E Monitoring & Evaluation
MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
MPA Multiphase Programmatic Approach
MRV Monitoring, reporting, and verification
MSME Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises
NAP National Adaptation Plan
NDC Nationally Determined Contributions
ND-GAIN Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative
NDP National Development Plan
O&M Operations & Maintenance
PA Per annum
PFM Public financial management
PTI Triennial Investment Plan
REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation
SCRAMI School Climate Risk Assessment and Mitigation Initiative
SDGs Sustainable Development Goals
SDRASA Strategy for Rural Development, Agriculture, and Food Security
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
SEACAP Sustainable Energy Access and Climate Action Plan
SLM Sustainable Land Management
SME Small and Medium Enterprises
SNDD Stratégie Nationale de Développement Durable
SSA Sub-Saharan Africa
TFP Total Factor Productivity
TNC Third National Communication
UNCCD The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification
UNFCCC The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WASH Water supply, sanitation, and hygiene
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Acknowledgement
This CCDR was largely made possible thanks to the collaboration of numerous stakeholders, including
representatives of the Central African Republic (CAR) Government, international NGOs, academic
researchers, and especially the communities across the entire Central African Republic, whose experiences
and knowledge have deeply shaped the findings and conclusions of this report. Their willingness to share
their insights and data provided invaluable contributions to the effort to ensure the completeness and
accuracy of this analysis.
This report (Main Document and Background Notes Document) is the result of a collaboration within a World
Bank team led by Nabil Chaherli (Team Leader), Camilla Lindstrom, and Pierre Mandon (Co-Team Leaders).
The team members who mainly contributed to the preparation of the main report are presented in the table
below. Communication, external relations, and logistical support were provided by Béatrice Toubarot
Mossane. Brent Boehlert, Ken Strzepek, and Diego Castillo from Industrial Economics prepared the section
on economic damages. The Main Document presents a summary of sectoral and cross-cutting analyses,
while the Background Notes Document covers these summaries in more detail.
We thank the peer reviewers for their comments at various stages of the report's development: Souleymane
Coulibaly, Jana El-Horr, and George Stirrett. The CCDR was prepared under the overall direction of Ousmane
Diagana, Sergio Pimenta, Ethiopis Tafara, Elisabeth Huybens, Cheick Kante, Chakib Jenane, Abebe Adugna,
Trina Haque, Franz Drees-Gross, Dahlia Khalifa, Charlotte Ndaw, Guido Rurangwa, Moritz Nebe, Lia Sieghart,
and Sandeep Mahajan. Tracey Lane, Johan Mistiaen, Mehnaz Safavian, Ashish Khanna, Ibou Diouf, Abel
Lufafa, Nicolas Perrin, Madhu Kana, Sylvie Debomy, Anna Cestari, Kathy Sheldon, Scherezad Joya, Camilla
Holmemo, Clelia Rontoyanni, Robert Utz, Natalie Lahire, Aissatou Diack, Maria Gracheva, Kanta Kumari, and
Yussuf Uwamahoro provided technical guidance and comments to the team.
The report benefited from engagement with the CAR Government during various World Bank missions and
workshops (November 2023, February 2024, July 2024). Our thanks to Professor Richard Filakota, Minister
of Economy, Planning, and International Cooperation, Mr. Hervé Ndoba, Minister of Finance and Budget, Mr.
Thierry Kamach, Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development, Mr. Gervais Mbata, Minister of
Water and Forests and Madame Michelle Mouanga, Minister of Labor and Social Protection. Stakeholders
from the private sector made significant contributions to this report. The IFC team conducted consultations
with representatives from the local private sector. The team also benefited from feedback and input from
technical and financial partners.
List of contributors (World Bank staff and consultants).
Agriculture: Aurelia Dakpogan, Mathias Egui; Water: Mike Thibert, Bogachan Benli; Environment: Nyaneba
Nkrumah, Samira Elkhamlichi, Sandrine Ndoubenoue; Social Development: Camilla Lindstrom, Ann-Sofie
Jespersen, Trrishala Kumaraswamy; Transport: Francis Ovanda, Abdoulaye Sylla, Oceane Keou, Ajara
Ceesay, Balikisu Osman; Energy: Nash Eyison, Steven Clarke; Urban Development: Laurent Corroyer, Emilie
Jourdan, Solene Dengler, Jean-Bosco Abderamane, Sammy Ndayizamvye, Illya Miko; Education: Tanya
Savrimootoo, Boubakar Lompo, Mitterand Madjita, Eleonora Cavagnero; Health: Innocent Nukuri, Tomo
Morimoto, Clarisse Uzamukunda, Abdoulaye Ka; Macroeconomics: Pierre Mandon, Diderot Tomi, Florent
McIsaac; Poverty: Jonathan Lain, Gervais Yama, Daniel Valderrama; Governance: Eugenie Kiendrebeogo,
Fabienne Mroczka, Marianne Caballero; Finance: Benjamin Herzberg, Marina Mavungu, Guy Sobo; Fragility:
Eric Mabushi; IFC: Toluwalola Kuburat Kasali, Lisa Choux, Alain Traore, Hannah Blyth, Joseck Mudiri, Frank
Ajilore, Kolognin Sekongo, Mouhamadou Bayo Ly, Vincent Naigard, Valentin Uwayo, Erina Saita, Dennis
Quansah, Nana Asamoah-Manu, Gabrielle Djonkou-Tomba, Matina Deen; MIGA: Mena Cammett.
The report was edited by Emily Gribbin. Litera Madagasikara prepared the French translation.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Executive Summary
Vision for a Resilient Future: The Central African Republic's Climate and
Development Paradigm
Vicious Cycle of Underdevelopment, Fragility, and Climate Change
The Central African Republic (CAR) remains entrenched in a vicious cycle characterized by
underdevelopment, state fragility, and heightened vulnerability to climate change, as extensively
analyzed in the initial chapters of the CAR Climate and Development Report (CCDR). This cycle
represents not just a theoretical framework but a tangible reality, underpinned by robust data and
empirical evidence that delineates the profound challenges CAR faces.
Profound Underdevelopment
Economically, CAR exhibits stark underdevelopment, evidenced by one of the world's lowest GDP per
capita figures, recorded at only $495 in 2019. This economic stagnation is further highlighted by the
Human Development Index (HDI), which places CAR among the lowest globally, signaling critical deficits
in health, education, and living standards. For instance, a child born in CAR today is projected to achieve
only 29% of their productive potential if they were to receive full education and health. The prevalence
of poverty is overwhelming, with approximately 70% of the population living below the poverty line.
Between 2018 and 2021, 90% of households experienced a significant shock, with armed conflict
(54%) and climate-related shocks (27%) being predominant.1
Pronounced State Fragility
Politically, CAR's fragility is compounded by a history of upheavals and conflicts that have significantly
eroded governance structures and disrupted social cohesion. Since 1960, recurrent violence and
political instability have severely impaired its governance capacity. This instability extends to societal
structures, often manifesting in tensions that escalate into violence, displacing a significant portion of
the population and fracturing communities. Urban areas are also not growing in a sufficiently resilient
and inclusive manner to act as true safe havens and provide sufficient opportunities for their
populations.
Heightened Susceptibility to Climate Change
E % ’ h h
susceptible to climate variability. The CCDR emphasizes that altered rainfall patterns and the increase
in extreme weather events critically threaten water and food security and livelihoods. Various reports
highlight how erratic rainfall disrupts agricultural production, compounding food insecurity and affecting
the broader national economy. Furthermore, CAR's extensive river systems and significant forest cover
1World Bank. 2023. Central African Republic Poverty Assessment - A Road Map Towards Poverty Reduction in the
Central African Republic (English). World Bank Group, Washington, D.C.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
face risks from changing climatic conditions and desertification, threatening essential natural
resources.
Interconnected Challenges
These challenges are not isolated but interconnected, creating a complex web that perpetuates
economic, social, and environmental stagnation. The interplay between underdevelopment, political
instability, and climate vulnerability constrains CAR's capacity to implement effective climate resilience
and adaptation strategies. Moreover, governance weaknesses impede robust policy implementation
and hinder necessary international cooperation.
Strategic Imperatives
h ’ b
development. It necessitates a comprehensive strategy that addresses the root causes and symptoms
’ h h h ional strengthening, and innovative policy
reforms. Without a multifaceted and integrated approach considering both sectoral challenges and
spatial trends, CAR risks deeper entrenchment in this cycle, with grave implications for its population's
well-being and future developmental prospects.
Significant Climate Risks to Economy, Sectors, and Households
CAR confronts significant challenges posed by climate change, which profoundly impact its economy,
critical sectors, and households, especially among the most vulnerable populations. These challenges
are detailed in the CAR Climate and Development Report (CCDR), which presents a comprehensive
analysis underlining the multifaceted threats across various dimensions.
The macro modeling identifies the interlinkage between climate change and development challenges
in the Central African Republic (CAR). It aims to explore how targeted adaptation investments could
yield socio-economic benefits by 2050. The primary objective is to assess the economic impact of
climate vulnerabilities and identify strategic adaptation measures that can alleviate the country's
economic fragility and enhance resilience.
A Climate Change Macro-Fiscal Model (CC-MFMod) and micro-simulations are used to forecast the
economic impacts of various climate scenarios until 2050. This approach evaluates the dynamics
across economic sectors and interactions among economic agents, employing scenarios to assess the
impact of climate on growth. Impact channels considered include productivity losses in agriculture due
to climate variability, health impacts due to increased heat, and infrastructural damages from extreme
weather events.
Two main scenarios are compared: the Business-as-Usual (BAU) and the Aspirational Scenario with
Planned adaptations (ASP). BAU reflects continued economic fragility without significant reforms, while
ASP assumes comprehensive economic reforms and proactive climate adaptation measures. The main
differences lie in the extent of structural economic changes and investment in climate resilience.
Development commitment under the ASP scenario is expected to significantly reduce poverty, driven
by strong consumption growth, higher wages, and a more fluid labor market shifting towards high-
productivity sectors.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Table ES.1: Comparison of BAU and ASP Scenarios
Feature BAU Scenario ASP Scenario
Economic Growth Limited growth due to structural stagnation Enhanced growth through structural reforms
and investments
Poverty Trends Small to moderate reduction of absolute Massive reduction of absolute monetary
monetary poverty poverty
Climate Adaptation Minimal adaptation efforts Ability to implement significant investment in
adaptation measures
GDP Impact by 2050 Higher GDP losses due to unmitigated Lower GDP losses due to proactive measures
climate effects
Policy Framework Continuation of current policies Implementation of aggressive reform and
adaptation strategies
Under the BAU scenario, the economy experiences minimal growth, increasing vulnerability to climate
impacts, while the ASP scenario, without specific climate action, suggests improvements through
reforms but still faces risks from unmitigated climate change. The comparison of GDP impacts reveals
significant potential losses under both scenarios if no climate action is taken. Climate change is
expected to worsen poverty and severely impact vulnerable households reliant on agriculture, especially
under the BAU scenario. The structural transformation envisaged under the ASP scenario would
mitigate the adverse impacts on the poorest households mostly by reducing dependency on rainfed
agriculture activities, relaxing budget constraints, and improving food security and provision.
Table ES.2: GDP Losses Under BAU and ASP (No Climate Action):
Climate Scenario BAU GDP Loss (%) ASP GDP Loss (%) BAU Poverty ASP Poverty Variation
Variation (%) (%)
Wet/Warm -1.7% -0.0% 0.5% -0.2% (gain of
welfare
Hot/Dry -7.8% -5.2% 4.4% 3.0%
Note: World Bank Staff computations
Sector-Specific Vulnerabilities:
• Agriculture: As the backbone of CAR's economy, employing about 80% of the population,
agriculture faces acute vulnerabilities due to climate variability. Erratic rainfall and rising
temperatures significantly affect crop yields and livestock productivity, thereby exacerbating
food insecurity and reducing rural household incomes.
• Water Resources: CAR's water resources are critical yet increasingly at risk. Limited access to
clean water and sanitation, compounded by changing precipitation patterns and rising
temperatures, poses severe challenges to agricultural productivity and heightens health risks.
Lack of water may also lead to increased conflicts between herders and farmers.
• Forestry: The forestry sector, pivotal for biodiversity and livelihoods, faces threats from
deforestation and degradation due to climate change and unsustainable land use. This
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
jeopardizes biodiversity, carbon sequestration capacities, and the economic stability of
communities dependent on forest resources.
• Cities and towns: Urban areas face multiple climate-related risks, particularly floods and
erosion, which are expected to become worse with climate change.
Disproportionate Impact on Vulnerable Communities: The adverse effects of climate change
disproportionately affect vulnerable community segments, including women, indigenous populations,
and the poor. Women, integral to agriculture and the informal economy, face amplified risks and
burdens. Indigenous populations, reliant on natural resources for their livelihoods and cultural
practices, confront increasing instability due to environmental changes. Internally displaced people are
also a group that is disproportionally affected by climate changes, whether they live in rural or urban
areas.
Risks and Opportunities: The intersection of climate risks with economic and sectoral vulnerabilities
presents both challenges and opportunities for CAR. It necessitates a holistic, cross-sectoral, and
spatial response2 that not only addresses the immediate impacts of climate change but also fortifies
the resilience of the economy, ecosystems, infrastructure, and communities. This strategic response
requires robust data, targeted investments, and policies that prioritize the needs and contributions of
the most vulnerable, ensuring a path towards a sustainable and resilient future for CAR.
Palpable Urgency: Moving Beyond Business-as-Usual
CAR is at a pivotal moment, facing escalated challenges as climate change intensifies pressures on an
already fragile socio-economic system. The CCDR underscores the critical need to transcend traditional
approaches to effectively counter these growing threats. This urgency is substantiated by robust
empirical data, advanced climate projections, and the direct experiences of the CAR population.
Amplifying Climate Threats Recent scientific analyses and models project an alarming increase in the
frequency and severity of extreme weather events affecting CAR. Projections indicate more frequent
droughts, floods, and erratic rainfall, which pose severe risks to agriculture and urban areas, can
displace communities, exacerbate vulnerabilities, and disrupt ecosystems. This projection aligns with
data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which anticipates a rise in climate
variability across the Sahel, directly impacting CAR.
Exacerbation of Existing Vulnerabilities ’ -existing vulnerabilities—stemming from political
instability, economic stagnation, and societal fragmentation—are significantly amplified by climate
change impacts. A large segment of the population already lives in poverty, lacking basic services,
healthcare, and education, making them disproportionately susceptible to worsening climate effects.
The CCDR highlights how these vulnerabilities fuel a feedback loop, where climate-induced hardships
deepen social and economic divides, further embedding fragility within the nation.
Inadequate Adaptive Capacity and Infrastructure Th ’
infrastructure is critically insufficient to withstand the emerging challenges posed by climate change.
Vital systems, including water management and sanitation, drainage, solid waste management,
healthcare, and transportation, are ill-equipped to cope with climate shocks. This gap reflects not only
physical infrastructure inadequacies but also institutional and governance deficiencies that hinder
effective community-level adaptation strategies.
2 Spatial is meant to refer to trends, population movements, IDP trends and local economic development.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Paradigm Shift for Sustainable Development It is evident from the CCDR that maintaining the status
quo is unsustainable for CAR. There is a compelling need for a paradigm shift towards sustainable,
climate-adapted development strategies. This shift requires enhancing both physical and institutional
infrastructures and integrating climate resilience into economic planning, spatial development, social
policies, and governance frameworks. It advocates for embracing innovative solutions that meld
traditional knowledge with scientific research to forge a development pathway that is both inclusive
and adaptive.
A Call to Action. The CCDR's urgency serves as a mobilizing call to action for CAR, its international
partners, and global stakeholders. It demands immediate, coordinated efforts to reframe development
strategies with climate resilience at their core. Priorities include investing in climate-smart agriculture,
sustainable water management, renewable energy, social safety nets, disaster risk management, and
resilient infrastructure. along with essential reforms in governance, finance, and social policy. A
comprehensive and forward-thinking approach is vital for CAR to mitigate impending climate risks and
lay the groundwork for sustainable, equitable development amidst unparalleled environmental
challenges.
When climate action is incorporated into the modelling approach, the climate-resilient (ASP-CR)
scenario demonstrates a robust response, mitigating much of the adverse impacts seen in the BAU and
ASP scenarios. Strategic investments and policy reforms under the ASP-CR scenario substantially
reduce the negative GDP impacts compared to when no climate action is taken. This assessment will
be complemented with ongoing projections on poverty and distributional impacts.
Table ES.3: GDP Losses Under BAU and ASP with Climate Action (ASP-CR)
Climate Scenario BAU GDP Loss (%) ASP-CR GDP BAU Poverty ASP-CR Poverty
Gain/Loss (%) Variation (%) Variation (%)
Wet/Warm -1.7% +1.9% (gain) 0.5% -1.0% (gain of
welfare)
Hot/Dry -7.8% -3.3% (reduced 4.4% 1.6% (reduced
loss) loss)
Note: World Bank Staff computations
Strategic policy recommendations include aggressively pursuing structural reforms and investing in
climate adaptation measures. The analysis suggests that enhancing fiscal space, diversifying the
economy, supporting local rural and urban economic development, and leveraging climate finance are
crucial. Given limited fiscal space even under the ASP scenario, the government should transform this
fiscal hurdle into a collaborative opportunity with the private sector and more generally all stakeholders
involved in ’ j h h ' -regret' policy. Limitations of the approach
include the high level of uncertainty in climate projections and economic responses, suggesting the
need for flexible and adaptive policy frameworks. Implementing targeted adaptation measures would
significantly benefit the poor by enhancing the resilience of the most vulnerable populations and
enabling the consolidation of strong local networks in both urban and rural areas. Future improvements
could involve integrating more granular local data and expanding the scope of climate scenarios to
enhance model accuracy and relevance.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Integrated, Coordinated Approach for Breaking the Cycle
To effectively tackle the intertwined challenges of underdevelopment, state fragility, and climate
vulnerability, CAR requires an integrated, coordinated approach. This strategy must synchronize
investments, institutional strengthening, and policy innovations to catalyze resilience and sustainable
development. The CAR CCDR emphasizes that a holistic strategy that considers spatial trends is crucial
for navigating CAR's complex developmental, socio-political, and environmental challenges. This report
proposes a set of 70 targeted solutions developed from extensive sectoral assessments and thorough
prioritization process (Figure ES.1).
Among the 42 most synergetic and urgent interventions, 24 solutions stand out for their high
b b b h ’
context (Figure E.S. 2).
Strategic Framework for Transformation
• Investment Initiatives: Key areas include enhancing agricultural productivity through climate-
resilient methods and local infrastructure, optimizing water resource management, expanding
renewable energy as well as investing in resilient and inclusive urban areas. These initiatives
aim to bolster productivity, ensure sustainability in resource use, increase resilience, and
reduce energy dependency.
• Institutional Reinforcement: Strengthening health and education systems to improve disease
surveillance and integrate climate resilience into curricula, enhancing environmental
governance for effective natural resource management, and developing comprehensive early-
warning and disaster risk management capabilities, as well as locally-led development plans.
• Policy Innovations: Reforms are needed in economic and fiscal policies to incentivize
sustainable practices, land use and risk-informed urban planning to encourage responsible
growth, and social policies tailored to the needs of vulnerable groups. These reforms are
designed to facilitate a transition to a low-carbon economy and ensure equitable climate
adaptation efforts. h ’
resilience to climate change by ensuring that they receive adequate resources from the central
level.
Path to Resilience and Prosperity Breaking the cycle of development-fragility-climate change in CAR
demands a concerted, multifaceted strategy that aligns investments, builds institutional resilience, and
revitalizes policy frameworks. This integrated approach not only aims to mitigate immediate climate
impacts but also establishes a robust foundation for enduring, inclusive development. With CAR's
limited financial and institutional capacities, the role of international collaboration and support is
highlighted as essential for providing the financial resources, technical expertise, and capacity-building
needed to implement these strategic interventions. The journey toward resilience, stability, and
sustainable growth in CAR is contingent upon a collaborative effort that encompasses a broad spectrum
of investments, enhances institutional frameworks, and revitalizes policy landscapes, empowering CAR
to navigate future uncertainties with enhanced strength and confidence. This comprehensive strategy
promises not just to address current challenges but also to position CAR for long-term prosperity and
stability in the face of climate change.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Figure ES. 1 Prioritization Process
Figure ES. 2 Most Synergetic and Urgent Solutions: CCDR Clusters and NDP Pillars
h E
b
Note: This subset of solutions and opportunities is based on a World Bank Staff initial assessment of development (impact on growth, jobs, access to
services, improved well-b …) b ( ) b ( / ), and
drawing from information gathered from past, current and future pipeline projects financed by the World Bank in CAR as of May 2024. The NDP 2024-28
Draft has the following areas of emphasis. Pillar 1: Security, Governance, and Rule of Law. Pillar 2: Access to Social Services and Human Capital. Pillar 3:
Infrastructure Resilience and Sustainability. Pillar 4: Economic Growth and Job Creation. Pillar 5: Environmental Sustainability and Climate Resilience.
Solutions have been mapped to the main NDP pillar they are most relevant to.
To operationalize these solutions, stakeholders in CAR must adopt a comprehensive, phased approach
that aligns with the country's development, climate, and fragility challenges. This approach should start
with the immediate implementation of the most synergetic and urgent solutions, prioritizing actions that
address critical vulnerabilities and lay the groundwork for long-term resilience. These solutions should
be integrated into existing national frameworks such as the NDP (most urgent), NDC, and NAP, ensuring
coherence and alignment with CAR's strategic goals. A phased implementation plan (Figure ES 3)
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
should include clear timelines, resource allocation strategies, and performance indicators to track
progress and adapt to emerging challenges.
Authorities should focus on strengthening institutional capacities and governance structures to support
the effective implementation of these solutions. Enhancing coordination mechanisms across
government agencies, improving policy coherence, and ensuring robust monitoring and evaluation
systems are crucial (Figure E.S 4). International technical and financial partners play a crucial role in
providing necessary resources and expertise. Prioritizing funding and technical assistance for the most
urgent and impactful solutions can facilitate knowledge transfer and capacity building, bridging
resource gaps, and ensuring the scalability of successful interventions.
Figure ES. 3 Concrete Steps to Operationalize the 70 Solutions
Figure ES. 4 Stakeholders’ Involvement in Operationalizing the 70 Solutions
h b h
b
b b
h b
Stakeholder engagement and community involvement are vital for the success of these solutions.
Inclusive decision-making processes should actively involve local communities, civil society
organizations, and the private sector. This engagement fosters ownership, enhances accountability,
19
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
and ensures that interventions are culturally appropriate and locally relevant. Establishing thematic
commissions focusing on natural, human, and physical capital, as well as institutions and governance,
“ h -of- ” ted action and effective monitoring. A round-
table of actors and partners is necessary to mobilize financial resources and establish action plans.
Whole-of-Society bodies are essential for translating plans into concrete actions, ensuring continuous
evaluation and adaptation. By taking these steps, CAR can break the vicious cycle of development,
climate vulnerability, and fragility, setting the country on a path towards resilient and sustainable
growth.
Recommendations and perspectives
Building upon the foundation laid by the diverse array of proposed solutions, the report distills these
into nine key recommendations tailored specifically for CAR. These recommendations were
meticulously developed by assessing the synergy, urgency, and feasibility of initially proposed solutions,
among which some were identified as both synergistic and urgent. This process involved categorizing
these solutions according to their type — direct actions, enabling environments, and support systems
— and their implementation horizon — short, medium, and long term. 'Direct actions' are concrete
interventions that have an immediate impact on development and climate resilience, such as
infrastructure improvement or renewable energy expansion. 'Enabling environments' include policies
and institutional frameworks that facilitate effective climate action and sustainable development
practices, such as legislative reforms and incentive policies. Finally, 'support systems' are educational,
technological, and community initiatives that support the sustainability and scaling of climate and
development actions, such as awareness and training programs. Each type of solution is assessed
based on its urgency of implementation, classified as short, medium, or long-term, to prioritize actions
and strategically allocate resources.
High Urgency and Impact (Immediate Implementation Needed)
Recommendation #1: Enhance infrastructure resilience to natural disasters. For public bodies in CAR,
it is imperative to strengthen infrastructure resilience to protect lives and maintain essential services.
This initiative focuses on strengthening critical assets such as urban drainage, roads, bridges, and
public buildings against natural disasters, using public funding, international aid, and grants for climate
resilience. Given CAR's susceptibility to climate disasters, this measure directly enhances the safety
and economic stability of both urban and rural populations, significantly reducing disruptions related to
disasters.
Recommendation #2: Foster partnerships for renewable energy and rural electrification. This
recommendation calls on the private sector and government to establish partnerships to expand access
to renewable energy in urban and rural areas, focusing on solar and wind energy projects. By leveraging
public-private partnerships, international green energy funds, and private investments, this strategy
aims to reduce dependence on non-renewable sources, enhance energy security, and support
sustainable economic development, thus increasing economic opportunities in rural communities and
contributing to national energy independence.
Recommendation #3: Develop a national strategy for education and communication on climate change.
Targeting civil society and education authorities, CAR must develop a comprehensive strategy to
integrate climate change awareness and resilience skills into the national education curriculum and
public communication channels. Funded by government budget allocations and supported by
international educational and environmental organizations, this initiative is crucial for educating the
populace about climate change, fostering a climate-aware generation capable of informed participation
and proactive community engagement in climate initiatives.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Medium Urgency but High Impact (Strategic Implementation Needed)
Recommendation #4: Implement water resource management reforms. Public bodies in CAR are
encouraged to reform policies to ensure sustainable use and equitable distribution of water resources.
This initiative is critical for adapting to variable rainfall patterns and securing water for all users,
essential for food security and health. Supported by national government funding and international
water management grants, sustainable water management will ensure a reliable water supply for
agriculture and domestic use.
Recommendation #5: Increase technical and financial partners' coordination for climate finance
optimization. International financial partners are called upon to improve coordination among donors to
maximize the efficiency and impact of climate finance. This strategy, involving structured international
funding and coordinated investment strategies, is key to efficiently implementing large-scale adaptation
j h h ’
critical climate action needs.
Recommendation #6: Promote financial inclusion to facilitate climate resilience investments. Targeting
private sector financiers, regulatory authorities, and financial institutions, this recommendation
advocates for enhancing financial inclusion to empower CAR's citizens, particularly rural smallholders
and entrepreneurs, to access and utilize financial products that support sustainable development and
climate resilience investments. Enhanced financial services are crucial for financing initiatives such as
renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and water resource management, which are vital under
CAR's climate and development framework. Financial inclusion not only accelerates the implementation
of these critical projects by providing necessary capital but also supports the economic stability of
communities, enabling them to adapt to and recover effectively from climate impacts. By fostering
economic participation and resilience, this strategy directly contributes to the nation's broader goals of
sustainable growth and climate adaptability, ensuring that development efforts lead to tangible
h h ’
Moderate Urgency and Impact (Gradual Implementation Advisable)
Recommendation #7: Mobilize empowerment and community monitoring of climate adaptation
projects. Civil society organizations in CAR should enable local NGOs to oversee the implementation of
climate adaptation projects, ensuring that community needs are met. Funded by grants from
international NGOs and community funding, this initiative increases community involvement and
accountability, improving the success rate and sustainability of adaptation projects. It will also
strengthen the empowerment of marginalized groups and support inclusive decision-making processes.
Recommendation #8: Develop and enforce comprehensive policies for the sustainable development
and management of natural capital. Public bodies are advised to establish and strengthen
comprehensive policies that not only regulate but also promote sustainable land use and natural
resource management. These policies should encompass environmental protection measures and
extend to economic strategies that valorize natural assets and create sustainable jobs. This integrated
approach should support the development of value chains, particularly in forestry, to enhance the
economic benefits for local communities while ensuring the conservation of resources. Supported by
government budgets and supplemented by international environmental governance funds, these
’ b
The aim is to improve land and resource security, thereby benefiting rural communities and fostering
economic resilience. By linking environmental sustainability with economic development, these policies
will help to create a robust framework that encourages responsible use and enhances the livelihoods
of those dependent on natural resources.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Recommendation #9: Strengthen agricultural resilience through climate-smart practices. Public bodies
and the agricultural sector must implement and support the adoption of climate-resilient agricultural
methods to enhance productivity and sustainability. Supported by government subsidies and
international agricultural development funds, this initiative improves land and resource security and
fosters sustainable agricultural practices, essential for enhancing the resilience and productivity of
CAR's predominantly agrarian economy.
Call to Action
The findings and recommendations presented in this report reflect a comprehensive approach,
informed by rigorous analysis conducted by the World Bank's team of specialists. They are designed to
guide the Central African Republic towards a sustainable development path, highlighting the
importance of resilience in the face of environmental, economic, and social challenges. Implementing
these recommendations requires a unified vision and a shared resolve from all stakeholders, including
government bodies, private sector entities, civil society, and international partners. Each group has a
pivotal role to play, from enhancing infrastructure resilience to developing inclusive financial strategies
that empower citizens. The collaborative efforts of these stakeholders are essential for transforming
the recommendations into effective actions that significantly improve CAR's stability and prosperity. By
aligning their actions with these strategic recommendations, stakeholders can ensure that every step
taken contributes positively to CAR's journey towards a more secure, prosperous, and resilient nation.
This report not only calls for immediate and concerted action but also serves as a foundation for
ongoing engagement and investment in CAR's future. It is imperative for all participants to engage
actively and thoughtfully, using this report as a roadmap and direct contribution to finalizing and
implementing the next NDP, to initiate sustainable change and achieve lasting impact in a way that
serves the people of CAR. Aligning ideas, actors, and financial resources towards a unified and
impactful development strategy is essential.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
1. The Link Development-Fragility-Climate Change
1.1. Economic and social development
With an estimated population of 5.9 million in 2024,3 the CAR is a landlocked and fragile country,
covering an area of 623,000 squares kilometers and ranks at the bottom of the human capital and
development indices (191st out of 193 countries in 2022).4 For more than two decades, the country
has been mired in repeated cycles of conflicts and violence, the most serious of which the seizure of
power by the Seleka in 2013. Since 1997, there have been 23 peace agreements between the
Government and various Non-State Armed Groups, making conflict one of the most important
determinants of political life. The lack of a social cohesion, the concentration of political power, social
and regional imbalances, elite captures, and the mismanagement of natural resources, remain the
main drivers of fragility, preventing the country to add value to its local production, create jobs and
bridge the poverty and infrastructure gap.5
’ -fiscal vulnerabilities have been exacerbated by a series of exogenous shocks
(COVID-19 pandemic, renewed insecurity, and violence in 2021, Russian invasion of Ukraine and
chronic fuel-supply shortages). These shocks have strained public finances, increased inflationary
pressures, jeopardized food security, and slowed poverty reduction efforts. Climate shocks, including
droughts, floods, wildfires, and windstorms continue to pose a threat to an already alarming
humanitarian situation, As of February 29, 2024, the total number of internally displaced persons (IDPs)
was estimated at 521,857 people (Figure 1.1) while approximately 749,471 people were registered
as refugees in neighboring countries.
Figure 1.1. Estimated IDP population1 in CAR
750,000
700,000
650,000
600,000
522,231
550,000
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
12/31/16 31/12/17 31/12/18 31/12/19 31/12/20 31/12/21 31/12/22 31/12/23 02/29/24
Source: Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Notes: 1/ As of Feb. 29, 2024, it is estimated that there are still 522,231
IDPs in CAR (about 9.1 percent of the population). The figure does not fully reflect the recent trends in the Birao refugee camp and more generally in the
Birao sub-prefecture since the onset of the Sudanese armed confrontations by mid-April 2013.
Despite its wealth of natural resources (with gold and diamonds having the greatest potential), CAR
remains one of the poorest and most fragile countries in the world. The economy is dominated by rain-
fed agriculture, livestock, local food processing and retail.7 To date, forestry (i.e., logs and sawn wood)
and extractives (i.e., gold and diamonds) account for more than three-quarters of the total export
basket.8 The country can rely on significant solar and hydro resources for energy generation. Urban
3 Based on the UN World Population Prospects. For more information, see the UN website at https://population.un.org/wpp/.
4 UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 2024. Human Development Report 2023-24: Breaking the gridlock: Reimagining cooperation in a
polarized world. New York.
55 Risk and Resilience Analysis, World Bank, 2018 (updated versio).
7 Data in this section is based on national accounts from the ICASESS (Institute Centrafricain des statistiques et des Etudes Economiques et Sociales),
https://icasees.org/index.php/telecharger/publications/statistique-comptes-nationaux-scn.
8 Data in this section is based on the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), https://oec.world/en/profile/country/caf.
23
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
areas likely represent a disproportionate share of h ’ economic activity9 and are growing – it
j h ’s population will be urban by 2050 – but are not yet sufficiently
reaping the benefits of agglomeration to drive national development. The medium-term outlook remains
uncertain and hinges on the containment and resolution of conflicts and the underlying drivers, political
stability, resumption of budget support and steadfast implementation of bold policy reforms.
Cumulated external shocks severely disrupted supply chains and led to a negative per capita growth
since 2020,10 and the poverty rate is forecasted to remain elevated and slightly increase up to 66.2
percent of the population in 2024.11 This situation translated into tighter budget constraints, especially
for the most vulnerable populations (e.g., agriculture-dependent households, IDPs, local communities)
especially in remote areas affected by inflation (ICASESS, 2024),12 and with less or no provision of
public services according the local development index across districts (World Bank, 2019).13
1.2. Climate Change
Climate change and climate shocks have a disproportionate negative impact on populations affected
by fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV)14 and generally for poorer and more marginalized populations.
Climate-related impacts particularly affect those dependent on agriculture for livelihoods and/or
household food and nutrition.15 For CAR this means that increased climate variability and longer-term
h b h ’ b h h
insecurity, low rates of access to water supply and sanitation services, political instability, and conflict.
F h ’ -fed and produced by
small-holder farmers. According to the latest Acute Malnutrition analysis conducted in the country, it is
estimated that nearly 177,000 children under five and over 162,000 pregnant and breastfeeding
women suffered from acute malnutrition between September 2023 and August 2024.16
h h h h ’ h
change will require a substantial expansion in access to basic services and improvements in the
resiliency and sustainability of those services. Water supply, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) service
access limitations are significant impediments to early childhood survival, health, and educational
b ’ h h h ( ) 17
WASH-related diarrheal disease ranks as the fourth leading cause of death in CAR, while WASH-related
issues like neonatal conditions, malaria and diarrheal diseases are top five contributors to national
disease burden (WHO, 2019). In 2022, only 36 percent of the population had access to at least basic
water services (2nd lowest globally) and only 14 percent of the population had access to at least basic
sanitation services (3rd lowest). In fact, coverage for both has decreased since 2000. As a result of
financial and operational challenges of service providers, infrastructure damage due to civil conflict,
9 Bangui was estimated to represent roughly 70% of national GDP but this is a highly uncertain figure. The GDP share of Bangui was calculated using
Ghosh et al 2010. Shedding light on the global distribution of economic activity. The Open Geography Journal (3), 148-16. Link. The dataset in tif format
was polygonized and clipped to the Bangui city boundaries. This dataset is top down and uses nightlights to approximate GDP values. Nightlights are based
on the 2006 DMSP yearly stable light image provided by NOAA. DMSP dataset is known to have a low sensitivity to low radiance light emissions, which can
bias the results by overestimating the share of main cities compared to smaller cities and rural areas (Elvidge et al. 2013).
10 In other words, the positive real growth observed between 2020-23 consistently fell below demographic growth.
11 World Bank. 2023. Central African Republic Poverty Assessment 2023. A Road Map towards Poverty Reduction in the Central African Republic. The
World Bank Group.
12 ICASESS. 2024. Note d’analyse de l’inflation en République Centrafricaine pour l’année 2023 .
13 World Bank. 2019. Central African Republic: Priorities for Ending Poverty and Boosting Shared Prosperity. A Systematic Country Diagnostic . The World
Bank Group.
14 Mercy Corps, 2021: Addressing the Climate Conflict Nexus: Evidence, Insights, and Future Directions. Mercy Corps, Washington, DC.
15 Data in this section is based on the 2024 World Settlement Footprint, https://download.geoservice.dlr.de/WSF_EVO; Fathom,
https://www.fathom.global/ ; World Bank. 2022. Central African Republic: Leveraging cities to build resilience and re-establish the social contract. Data
on the share of informal areas from quantitative analysis undertaken for World Bank 2022 report (modelling results for predictions of land use categories
using AI based on city building footprints extracted from the Digitize Africa database and training data collected in the field; accuracy of the model is
~80%). A high proportion of urban residents are seen as living in slums conditions in CAR and this share has consistently and increasingly been higher
than in other comparator countries in Sub-Sahara Africa. World Bank. 2022. World Development indicators.
16 IPC (The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification). 2023. Central African Republic: Acute Malnutrition Situation for September 2023 - February
2024 and Projection for March - August 2024.
17 World Bank. 2020. The Human Capital Index 2020 Update: Human Capital in the Time of COVID-19. The World Bank Group.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
and inadequate protection of water resources, even existing services are poorly adapted to confront
the threats of climate-related droughts and floods and require significant technical support to ensure
service continuity, quality, and sustainability.
Given ’ -adaptation, the country’s complex vulnerabilities and myriad of conflict-
related fault lines, climate shocks are likely to contribute to and/or correlate with conflict and violence.
This through, for example, increased migration of herders in search for water and grazing land for their
herds, which might lead to further conflicts around water and land. The country is already seeing an
influx of herders from the Sahel and the timing and routes have changed due to climate changes. This
in combination with changes in the time of the year and the routes they are taken are increasing the
conflicts. Another effect on climate change is the internal displacement of people. Although the majority
of the IPDs are moving due to conflict, floodings and other effects of climate change are also leading
to displacement of people. However, a key message is that the risk of conflict and violence can be
reduced in the presence of policies that empower local communities, foster participatory decision
making and democracy, include transhumant pastoralists, apportion property rights, and regulate land
dispute resolution. For IDPs it is important to prepare the locations to where IDPS are fleeing for an
influx of people in terms of water supply, waste management, job creation, adequate housing, access
to services etc. It is important that a conflict lens is taken when developing activities as an intervention
that favors one group, such as the provision of water for farmers, or specific measure for IDPs without
taking into consideration the host communities might negatively affect another group, increase
tensions and erode social cohesion.
Around 9 in 10 Central Africans are vulnerable to falling into poverty, meaning they have a 50 percent
risk of being below the national poverty line within the next two years.18 This encompasses vulnerability
to both idiosyncratic or community-level shocks, including shocks related to conflict and climate
change. Climate-related shocks affect Central Africans right across the welfare distribution. Yet certain
groups are especially vulnerable to climate change: women, pastoralists, IDPs, and indigenous people
face disproportionate vulnerabilities to climate change such as floods and droughts. Climate adaptation
measures need to take these groups heightened risks into account. To build resilience and promote
sustainable development in the CAR, it is crucial to empower these marginalized groups through the
implementation of gender-responsive policies, community-led initiatives, and bottom-up voice in
climate policy.
The structural and interlinked security risks, coupled with exposure to climate shocks, may result in a
permanent population of IDPs near or within the largest urban areas in the country. Marginalized and
poorer communities are disproportionately affected by climate-related risks: IDPs, particularly in camps,
are often the first victims of disasters as they are more exposed and have less coping capacity.19 This
situation necessitates the reinforcement of multidimensional adaptation strategies. The CAR is already
grappling with climatic shocks. According to the recent CAR Poverty Assessment Report (World Bank,
2023)20 about 9 in 10 people lived in a household affected by some type of negative shock in the three
years prior to the 2021 EHCVM.21 Security shocks were the most common, affecting about 6 in 10
Central Africans. Almost 3 in 10 Central Africans suffered climate-related shocks, including floods and
droughts. This may result in the perpetuation of the current trend where CAR cities serve as safe havens
for the population and economic activities in the face of shocks, especially conflict.
The CAR is one of the most vulnerable and least prepared countries regarding climate change. It is
ranked 184 out of 185 in the 2021 rankings of the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN)
Country Index. The high vulnerability score and low readiness score of the CAR places it in the upper-
18 World Bank. 2023, op. cit.
20 World Bank. 2023, op. cit.
20 World Bank. 2023, op. cit.
21 The 2021 EHCVM stands for the Harmonized Household Living Conditions Survey of 2021 (French acronym).
25
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
left quadrant of the ND-GAIN Matrix (see link here).22 It has both a great need for investment and
innovations to improve readiness and a great urgency for action. This puts a lot of responsibility on the
’ to accompany the government in ensuring that all investments are
climate proofed and that projects build in climate change adaptation and mitigation into the activities.
Climate vulnerabilities in the CAR include storms, wildfires, droughts, soil erosion and recurring floods,
with many areas seasonally flooded due to exceptional rainfall that affect human settlements,
agriculture, public health, and biological diversity. Climate change trends in CAR are expected to
increase the risk and intensity of flooding and aridity. Increased food insecurity is of specific concern
following climate-related disasters. The scarcity of water and fertile land resources increases conflicts
b h h h ’ urces, with
drought threatening the sustainability of water-related services and increased flooding, coupled with
poor access to sanitation services, leading to ground and surface water contamination and the spread
of waterborne diseases. In July 2022, heavy flooding in Bangui forced tens of thousands of people to
abandon their homes, jeopardizing their food security and contributing to the increase in malaria cases
and other waterborne diseases. It is also proven that the intensity of climate risk is different depending
on the socio-economic conditions of livelihoods, locations, gender, age and ethnicity in Central Africa.
Vulnerability is higher for women, youth, children, and IDPs limited access to credit and assets,
engagement in policy dialogue and decision-making in the agriculture and forestry sectors. According
to the IPCC (2023),23 women farmers, cocoa and plantain producers, pastoralists, rural and forest
communities are the groups most vulnerable to climate change in Central Africa characterized by low
adaptive capacity and socio-economic conditions and unfavorable economics. Natural hazards are
expected to further exacerbate these challenges, thereby undermining environmental, social, economic
and food security conditions, exacerbating loss of life, through negative impacts on ecosystem services
and losses of biodiversity worsened by the reduction in the capacity of external humanitarian aid to
operate in unfavorable conditions.
1.3. Fragility
In CAR, the combination of climate shocks and conflict can lead to structural instability in regions
resulting in a continuous flow of IDPs and increased tensions over land and pastorate. Climate change
is affecting the timing and the movements of herders that are moving their animals across the territory.
Competition over water and land between herders and farmers, and between herders is a major course
of conflicts and might increase as more herders are entering the country from the Sahel and
neighboring countries due to climate change and increased drought. Although the vast majority of IDPs
are fleeing conflicts but natural disasters such as flooding are also pushing people to become IDPS,
and seek shelter elsewhere. To support IPDS it is important to work both with the host communicates
and IDPs to build resilience and increase social cohesion, for example through labor intensive public
works, job creation, vocational training and the provision of social services. Increased effort is also
needed in supporting urban centers support to become resilient, inclusive and places of opportunities,
This by providing essential public services (human development, energy, transport, water, and
sanitation), with a focus on better provision to the most vulnerable,. . There is also a critical need to
focus on job creation options, technical assistance to service providers to improve efficiency and
sustainability, on spending efficiency through an improvement of the public financial management
(PFM), and domestic revenue generation24. This approach aims to ensure a sustainable and secure
environment for the affected population.
22Data in this section is from the ND-GAIN Matrix, https://gain-new.crc.nd.edu/matrix.
23 IPCC, 2023: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 1-34, DOI:
10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.001.
24 Through short-medium term measures like value-added tax (VAT), the collection of 'menues recettes' (miscellaneous revenues) through Treasury Single
Account (TSA), reforms related to tax exemptions, and long-term land development plans (reforms concerning cadastre and property taxes).
26
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
The Nexus Development-Fragility-Climate
The CAR stands at a critical juncture, facing interlinked challenges at the nexus of development,
fragility, and climate change. Understanding and addressing this nexus requires a conceptual
framework that recognizes the complex and dynamic relationships between these factors. This
framework is grounded in the insights from a range of scholarly works, which collectively underscore
the necessity of moving from a vicious cycle of poverty, instability, and environmental degradation to a
virtuous cycle of sustainable development, peace, and climate resilience. The World Bank Group
strategy for Fragility, Violence and Conflict (FCV) explicitly recognizes the importance of climate change
as a driver of FCV and as a threat multiplier, as well as the need to address the environmental impacts
and drivers of FCV.25
1.3.1. Conceptual Framework: Development-Fragility-Climate Nexus
The relationship between development, fragility, and climate change is multifaceted and bidirectional.
Developmental paths can exacerbate climate change and fragility if not carefully managed, as
demonstrated by Prabhakar Sivapuram et al. (2017)26, who highlight the increasing global risks of
climate-fragility and their links to development choices. Similarly, the work of Scheffran et al. (2012)27
and Boyd et al. (2009)28 emphasizes the critical role of effective governance and institutional
frameworks in mitigating climate-induced conflicts and fostering cooperation, pointing to the intricate
ways in which climate change impacts can either undermine or advance development and stability.
This interdependence suggests that strategies aimed at one aspect of the nexus inevitably influence
the others. For example, interventions in climate change adaptation can either mitigate or exacerbate
fragility, depending on how they are implemented and whom they benefit. The insights from OECD
(2005)29 and Nath et al. (2011)30 stress the importance of integrating climate considerations into
development planning and the role of clean technology and adaptation in fostering sustainable growth.
Meanwhile, Lo et al. (2020)31 and Cannon et al. (2010)32 discuss the transformations necessary for
adapting to climate change in ways that support sustainable economic development and reduce
vulnerability.
From Vicious to Virtuous Cycle
The shift from a vicious to a virtuous cycle in CAR involves leveraging climate adaptation and
sustainable development initiatives as tools for reducing fragility. This requires a holistic approach that
combines targeted investments, policy reforms, and institutional strengthening, as well as a concerted
effort to provide CAR with the necessary development and climate finance. Such an integrated
approach acknowledges the synergies and trade-offs inherent in addressing the nexus, ensuring that
efforts in one area do not inadvertently undermine progress in another.
The Importance of Understanding Development-Fragility-Climate Relations
A nuanced understanding of the development-fragility-climate nexus is crucial for designing
interventions that capitalize on synergies while minimizing trade-offs. For CAR, this means recognizing
25 World Bank. 2020. Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence 2020–2025 (English). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group.
26 Prabhakar, S. et al. 2017. Climate-Fragility Risks in Asia: The Development Nexus. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies.
27 Scheffran, Jürgen. et al. “ h - E Th V b h ”
Review of European Studies. (4): 1-13.
28 E 9 “E F h F ” Development Policy
Review. (27): 659-674.
29 OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2005. Bridge Over Troubled Waters: Linking Climate Change and Development.
Bridge Over Troubled Waters: Linking Climate Change and Development. 1-153.
30 Nath, Pradosh. & Behera, Bhagirath. 2011. A critical review of impact of and adaptation to climate change in developed and developing economies.
Environment, Development and Sustainability . 13. 141-162.
31 “ T b E h ” Annals of the
American Association of Geographers. 110. 223-241.
32 Cannon, Terry. & Müller-M h “V b h ” Natural Hazards.
55. 621-635.
27
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
how development choices can impact climate vulnerability and fragility, and vice versa. It involves
identifying opportunities for climate adaptation measures to contribute to peacebuilding, resilience,
and development goals, such as through the creation of climate-resilient livelihoods that can reduce
the economic drivers of conflict. It also involves considering a territorial development perspective,
especially the need to invest in lagging or underserved regions as well as in urban areas and ensuring
locally lead climate actions.
Supporting CAR with Integrated Approaches
Supporting CAR requires an integrated approach that aligns development funding and climate finance
with the country's specific needs and priorities. This approach should be underpinned by a strong
conceptual framework that guides the identification, design, and implementation of interventions. By
carefully considering the interconnectedness of development, fragility, and climate change,
stakeholders can ensure that investments in one area bolster resilience and progress across the nexus.
In conclusion, the development-fragility-climate nexus presents both significant challenges and
opportunities for CAR. By adopting a conceptual framework that emphasizes integrated approaches
and the careful management of synergies and trade-offs, CAR and its partners can navigate the
complexities of this nexus, moving towards a future characterized by sustainable development, stability,
and climate resilience.
1.4. The way forward
Following the overall assessment and conceptual framework outlined in Chapter 1, which delves into
the interlinked challenges of climate change, fragility, and development in CAR, the CCDR is structured
to further explore these themes in depth, offering insights, analysis, and actionable strategies across
five comprehensive chapters covering the nexus summarized in Figure 1.2. This introduction serves to
guide the reader through the subsequent chapters, each building upon the last to provide a holistic
view of CAR's situation and pathways forward.
National and Global Commitments, and Institutional Capacity
Chapter 2 will provide a thorough review of CAR's climate-related commitments at both the national
and global levels, including government programs, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), Long-
Term Strategies (LTS), and any corporate or investor climate commitments where available. This
chapter will also explore fragility-related government programs and policies, shedding light on the
current landscape of institutional capacity and arrangements. A cross-cutting analysis will offer a private
sector and institutional perspective on the nexus of development, fragility, and climate, highlighting the
roles and responsibilities of various stakeholders in addressing these interconnected challenges.
Sectoral Policies, Investment, and Institutional Arrangements
Focusing on natural, human, and physical capital, Chapter 3 will delve into key sectoral policies,
investments, and institutional arrangements, considering also spatial elements, that underpin a
resilient and adapted development strategy in the face of climate shocks. This chapter will examine
public and private interventions across critical sectors, identifying opportunities and challenges for
strengthening CAR's resilience and adaptive capacity. The analysis will include specific examples of
climate-smart investments and policy reforms needed to safeguard and enhance the country's capital
assets, ensuring sustainable development pathways.
Resilient and Inclusive Macroeconomic Policies
Chapter 4 will address the macro-fiscal policies and climate financing options essential for building
resilience and inclusivity within CAR's economy. This includes an examination of growth and domestic
revenue mobilization challenges, the role and potential of the private sector, and the impact of current
policies on poverty, distribution, employment, and social exclusion. The chapter aims to identify
macroeconomic levers that can foster a more equitable and sustainable economic environment,
conducive to addressing both the immediate and long-term challenges posed by climate change and
fragility.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Figure 1.2: The Development-Fragility-Climate Nexus in CAR
Conclusions and Actionable Recommendations
The final chapter will synthesize the findings and analyses from the preceding chapters, offering
conclusions that highlight the critical interdependencies between climate action, fragility reduction, and
sustainable development in CAR. It will present prioritized and actionable recommendations for
national and international stakeholders, outlining a roadmap for integrated interventions that can break
the vicious cycle of underdevelopment, instability, and environmental degradation. The
recommendations will focus on immediate actions as well as longer-term strategies to build CAR's
resilience, promote inclusive growth, and ensure environmental sustainability. By articulating a clear,
actionable framework for progress, the report seeks to mobilize support and resources towards
achieving a resilient, prosperous, and sustainable future for CAR.
Th h b h ’
developmental, environmental, and social challenges, as depicted in Figure 1.2. Cross-cutting factors
such as democratic governance, economic conditions, and climate sensitivity establish a broad context
in chapters 1 and 2 in which specific underlying causes—management of natural, human, and physical
capital—directly affect the nation's resilience and growth (chapters 3 and 4). These underlying causes
precipitate immediate challenges such as poor valorization of forest resources, inadequate human
capital investments, and inefficient public service delivery. The core problem emerges as the nation's
struggle to break free from the fragility trap while ensuring equitable growth and coping with climate
vulnerabilities. This cascades into tangible impacts including extreme poverty, health service
inaccessibility, and compromised water and sanitation systems, cumulatively leading to diminished
national prosperity and sustainability. Solutions proposed and prioritized in chapter 5 aim to reverse
those impacts. Th h ’
challenges of development, fragility, and climate change, underpinning the strategic solutions proposed
in this report.
29
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Figure 1.2: The Path towards prosperity, resilience, and sustainability in CAR: A framework for action
Note: This graph incorporates diagnostic and analysis conducted in various World Bank and Government documents including but
not limited to: Country Economic Memorandum (World Bank, 2020); Country Partnership Framework (World Bank, 2020);
Performance and Learning Review (World Bank, 2024); National Development Plan (Government of Central African Republic, 2024-
unpublished); Nationally Determined Contributions (Government of Central African Republic 2021); Initial National Adaptation Plan
(Government of Central African Republic, 2021).
30
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
2. Climate Commitments, Policies, and Capacities
2.1. Navigating the Nexus Through Institutional and Governance Reform
CAR is entangled in a complex web of underdevelopment, fragility, and climate change, presenting a
formidable barrier to its aspirations for sustainable development, stability, and climate resilience. This
narrative, steeped in the interconnected challenges that CAR faces, underscores the pivotal role of
strategic planning, policy coherence, and institutional integrity. It highlights the urgent need for an
institutional and governance lens to navigate the complexities of climate action in a context marked by
pervasive fragility and underdevelopment.
’ h b h
b h ' b h ’
Underdevelopment leads to a scarcity of basic services and economic opportunities, fostering a state
of fragility characterized by conflict and weak governance. This fragility, in turn, undermines efforts
towards development and climate action, decimating essential infrastructure and displacing
communities, often to urban areas that are not sufficiently prepared to rapid growth. Climate change
compounds these issues, exerting additional pressure on natural resources, agricultural livelihoods,
escalating societal instability and undermining social cohesion. This intricate scenario spotlights the
imperative for CAR to cultivate resilient, adaptive strategies, plans, and policies capable of breaking
this detrimental cycle.
Like many other FCV countries, CAR face limited capacity to deal with the impacts of climate change
owing to a combination of institutional fragility, poor service delivery and constrained technical and
financial resources. The recurrent cycle of violence and conflict has undermined livelihoods,
institutional capacity, and basic service delivery,.33 The recurrent cycles of conflict have contributed to
eroding trust and social cohesion.
As the country is stabilizing, it is important to develop a robust institutional and governance framework
’ h h h
governance frameworks, enhances policy coherence, and bolsters institutional capacity. This strategy
must embody an integrated approach for development, accentuating state capacity and resilience
building against climate impacts. The crafting of inclusive development policies to address the root
causes of poverty and inequality, the establishment of effective climate governance structures for
cross-sector coordination and considering spatial elements and population movements, and the
improvement of transparency and accountability in climate initiatives are all crucial steps in this
direction.
Leveraging the Climate Change Institutional Assessment (CCIA) framework, this chapter aims to provide
an in- h ’
enhancement and institutional reform. The CCIA, with its comprehensive evaluation of institutional
readiness, policy coherence, and implementation capabilities, serves as a critical tool for this analysis.
It offers invaluable insights into improving CAR's climate governance framework, which this chapter
seeks to explore and apply.
h ’
institutional frameworks, and leveraging CCIA insights for targeted improvements, this chapter will
serve as a basis h h ’
and resilience. The objective is to help authorities chart their own coherent roadmap that accelerates
CAR's transition to a sustainable economy, anchored in more robust institutional frameworks and
effective governance practices. This endeavor not only addresses the immediate challenges posed by
the nexus of development, fragility, and climate change but also paves the way for a resilient and
sustainable future for CAR.
33 CCDR FCV approach note, World Bank
31
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
2.2. Development Aspirations
h ’ -term approach to addressing climate change, they
must be established and implemented in coherence with its development aspirations. As of May 2024,
authorities are still in the process of finalizing the National Development Plan (NDP) for 2024-2028,
waiting for a detailed costing of the various instruments proposed34. This plan represents a noticeable
and b h ’ j h
and mitigation commitments and a graduation strategy from Fragile, and Conflict State (FCS) status. It
encapsulates a strategic vision and detailed objectives, supported by robust pillars and precise
instruments, all aimed at fostering sustainable development while addressing both current and
anticipated climate challenges. This section provides an overview of the NDP, articulating how its vision,
objectives, pillars, instruments, and indicators not only reflect CAR's commitment to sustainable and
inclusive growth but also demonstrate its proactive approach to integrating climate change
considerations into the national development agenda. This integration is crucial for enhancing the
’ h h h
sustainability.
The vision of the NDP is to transform the nation into a prosperous country with a stable, efficient, and
transparent management of public finances, aiming to ensure sustainable development and improved
quality of life for all its citizens. This vision seeks to leverage the country's resources effectively,
promoting resilient and sustainable infrastructure while fostering an inclusive society that is governed
by the rule of law and good governance principles. The NDP has four key parts (i. governance, rule of
law and security; ii. growth, public finance and productive sectors; iii. human capital and social
development, iv. environment and climate change). Climate change is considered in terms of impacts
on specific sectors (forestry, agriculture, mining, waste management) and assets (infrastructure,
including in urban areas) but also in terms of overall impacts on economic development. Climate
adaptation is considered as inherently linked to disaster risk management and addressing the
compound effects with conflict such as internal displacement and capacity and resources of urban
hosting areas, including effective land management, service delivery and provision of affordable and
resilient housing.
The objectives of the NDP are strategically designed to operationalize this vision by enhancing the
governance framework of the financial sector, optimizing the management chain of public
expenditures, and developing the financial ecosystem to support economic growth and integration.
These objectives are aimed at mobilizing internal and external resources, including exploring innovative
financing sources such as carbon credits and green taxation, to adequately finance the national
development agenda. The pillars of the NDP are foundational elements that support the achievement
of its vision and objectives. They include Security and Good Governance, Equitable Access to Quality
Basic Services, Development of Resilient and Sustainable Infrastructure, Economic Growth and Value
Chain Development, and Environmental Sustainability and Resilience. Each pillar is critical in
addressing the interrelated aspects of development, ensuring a holistic approach to overcoming the
’ h
The instruments specified in the NDP for achieving these objectives include the Triennial Investment
Plan (PTI), Medium-Term Budget Framework (CBMT), and the Annual Budget Law. These instruments
are essential for aligning priority actions across sectors, projecting resource mobilization and allocation,
and governing the nature and amount of state resources and expenditures for fiscal years, thereby
ensuring the strategic implem h ’ bj
Finally, the NDP utilizes a set of indicators to measure the effectiveness of its strategies and the
progress towards achieving its objectives. These indicators include the Real GDP Growth Rate, Share
of Secondary Sector in Real GDP, Investment Rate, Tax Pressure Rate, Imports to Exports Ratio, and
Inflation Rate. These metrics are pivotal for monitoring the economic and developmental health of the
nation, facilitating timely adjustments to strategies, and ensuring that the goals of sustainable
development are met efficiently.
34A Draft 0 has been discussed and shared with the World Bank during the WB-IMF Spring Meetings in April 2024. Future versions of the CCDR
document will reflect the final and disseminated version of the NDP.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
2.3. Climate Commitments
CAR is trying to proactively address the challenges of climate change through its national commitments
and policy frameworks. These efforts are encapsulated in the Revised Nationally Determined
Contribution (NDC)35, the National Adaptation Plan (NAP),36 and other strategic documents37 reflecting
a balance between climate adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development goals. This sets the
stage for a deeper analysis of CAR’s climate commitments, showcasing the country’s dedication to both
global climate initiatives and safeguarding the well-being of its citizens 38.
’ h h h b h h
adaptation to climate impacts. The Revised NDC articulates ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse
gas emissions through sustainable practices in key sectors like agriculture, forestry, and energy and
improving national spatial and urban planning. In parallel, the NAP identifies priorities for the next five
years and focuses on strengthening resilience in agriculture— h ’
and livelihoods—outlining clear adaptation measures and the need for robust financial support for
implementation. It also highlights the goals of strengthening overall disaster risk management,
upgrading critical infrastructure for climate resilience, enabling the provision of quality basic services,
supporting greener and resilient urban development, and the importance to target specific vulnerable
people and including them in decision making as a cross-cutting factor.39 This dual approach (captured
in Table 2.1) ’ h h
and pursue a path towards decarbonization, recognizing the intricate link between environmental
sustainability and socio-economic development, and its current insignificant level of emissions on a
global scale.
Table 2.1 Comparing CAR’s Commitments taken in the NDC and the NAP
Category NDC (Revised) NAP (2021)
Vision Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and enhanced Strengthening resilience and adaptive capacity to climate change,
resilience to climate change across key sectors. with a focus on agriculture, urban development and infrastructure
and disaster risk management.
Pillars Sustainable land and water management, health system Governance, information systems and campaigns, institutional
resilience, and improved early warning systems. capacity, citizen engagement, strategic and financial planning
(foundational, cross-cutting); Agriculture-focused resilience, water
resource management, and educational interventions for climate
adaptation (sectoral).
Objectives Specific emission reduction targets by 2025 and 2030, Support for subsistence agriculture to mitigate climate change
enhanced capacity for carbon sequestration, and impacts, reduce food insecurity, and enhance resilience of
improved climate risk management. vulnerable groups; invest in foundational elements to improve basic
service delivery, infrastructure, DRM and land management.
Key Sectors Agriculture, water resources, health, infrastructure, Cross-sectoral institutional and resource strengthening; Primarily
disaster risk management. agriculture, with extensions into water resources and education.
Strategic Actions Land and water conservation measures, promotion of Integrate climate adaptation in a cross-cutting manner in all
agroforestry, improvement of health infrastructure, and strategic and sectoral plans and shape comprehensive investment
development of early warning systems; risk—informed programs for resilient infrastructure and basic service delivery;
urban and spatial planning. Implementation of agricultural investment programs, development
of resilience measures in water management, and adaptation
education programs.
35 Central African Republic (Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development). 2021. Contribution Determinée au niveau National. Octobre 2021.
Published by UNFCC.
36 Central African Republic (Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development). 2022. Plan national initial d‘adaptation aux changements
climatiques de la République Centrafricaine. Published by UNFCCC.
37 Including but not limited to Nation Sustainable Development Strategy 2021-2025, and the 2022 Third National Communication to the UNFCCC.
38 World Government Summits of 2023 and 2024; United Nations General Assembly 2023; Three Basin Summit 2023.
39 Central African Republic (Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development). 2022. ‘ h
climatiques de la République Centrafricaine [English: National Adaptation Plan (NAP)]; Central African Republic (Ministry of Environment and Sustainable
Development). 2023. Stratégie Nationale Genre et Changements Climatiques de La République Centrafricaine .
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Instruments Policy reforms, sector-specific strategies, and transversal A mix of national investment programs and projects, policy
measures like climate modeling, vulnerability studies, initiatives, and capacity-building measures tailored to sector-specific
databases development, and institutional support. needs.
Implementation Requires a coordinated approach across sectors, Emphasizes the need for sustained financial support from
Challenges significant financial resources, and robust monitoring and international partners and effective governance structures for
evaluation mechanisms. implementation.
Monitoring and Plans for a detailed monitoring and evaluation framework Strategy for mobilization of funds aligned with national development
Evaluation to track progress and adjust strategies as needed. priorities, with periodic updates to ensure relevance and
effectiveness.
Source: World Bank Staff assessment of the NDC and the NAP.
CAR’s commitments through its NDC and NAP demonstrate a strong resolve to confront climate change
head-on. While these documents lay a solid foundation for action, their success hinges on effective
b ’ j
and sustainable future is a testament to its commitment to addressing the complex challenges of
climate change, aiming to secure a prosperous and stable environment for future generations. The
insights derived from the comparison b h h h h h ’
the critical pathways it must navigate to achieve its climate and development goals.
2.4. Climate commitments and national and sectoral strategies
CAR’s strategic foundation for climate action, while rooted in commitment, reveals areas requiring
significant enhancement for efficacy. The Climate Change Institutional Assessment (CCIA) underscores
’ h b b h
national and sectoral strategies. However, these efforts are frequently stymied by a lack of cohesive
legal frameworks, comprehensive strategic planning, and the integration of actionable policies and
programs.
2.4.1. Climate-informed legislation and coordination mechanisms
Regulatory frameworks and laws necessitate immediate attention to elevate CAR’s climate action from
intention to enforceable reality. The CCIA highlights a significant gap in CAR’s legal foundation for
climate action. The proposed National Climate Change Commission, which could serve as a linchpin for
effective coordination and oversight, remains unrealized. Without this body and other necessary legal
frameworks, CAR’s climate policies lack the coordination and enforcement mechanisms essential for
holistic climate governance. This gap not only impedes the effectiveness of national climate initiatives
but also limits CAR’s ability to engage constructively in international climate dialogues.
Policies, programs, and projects geared towards climate action require a strategic overhaul to integrate
technical capacity and environmental planning effectively. While there are individual policies and
programs aimed at mitigating climate impacts and fostering adaptation, the CCIA diagnostic points to
a critical need for integrating these initiatives within broader strategic environmental, economic and
urban planning frameworks. This integration is crucial for ensuring that climate actions are not only
technically sound but also strategically aligned with CAR’s overarching environmental and
developmental goals. The current situation, marked by isolated initiatives lacking a cohesive strategy,
underscores the urgency for a systematic approach that leverages technical expertise and aligns with
national priorities.
Enhancing Strategic Foundations for Comprehensive Climate Action. To advance its climate action
framework, CAR must undertake targeted reforms that solidify its strategic foundations. Strengthening
national and sectoral strategies with comprehensive planning and legal backing, establishing
enforceable regulatory frameworks, and ensuring the strategic integration of policies, programs, and
34
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
projects are essential steps43. These reforms will enable CAR to transition from fragmented climate
initiatives to a coordinated, strategic approach grounded in robust governance, legal certainty, and
technical precision. Addressing these foundational elements is fundamental for CAR to achieve its
climate ambitions, enhancing resilience and sustainability in the face of global environmental
challenges.
2.4.2. Institutional readiness for Climate Change Action
The inclusion of strategic commitments through its NDC and NAP has not yet led to incorporating
climate change into core planning instruments. CAR has committed to integrating climate change into
h ’ b h F
However, this is yet to happen. Climate change is not yet mainstreamed into planning or policy,
including in urban and spatial planning and land management or the National Disaster Risk Reduction
strategy.44 At present, climate change is only integrated into one sectoral policy, water, and there is
little information on operationalization. The draft National Development Plan (NDP) in preparation sets
climate change as one of the government's priorities and offers an opportunity to set concrete targets
related to the reduction of GHG emissions.
CAR’s approach to climate governance is characterized by a rich tapestry of initiatives but is hampered
by significant systemic challenges. The CCIA reveals that while CAR has embarked on numerous
initiatives aimed at combating climate change, these efforts are often undermined by overarching
challenges in stakeholder engagement, financing, capacity building, technological support, data
management, and the integration of traditional knowledge.
Stakeholder engagement in CAR’s climate governance requires a more structured and inclusive
approach to harness the full spectrum of societal inputs. Despite attempts to involve various
stakeholders in the climate dialogue, the process remains sporadic and lacks the depth and
consistency needed for meaningful participation. This inadequacy in engagement practices limits the
potential for diverse insights and undermines the development of policies that are fully reflective of
community needs and aspirations. Furthermore, the existing mechanisms do not adequately empower
stakeholders, particularly at the grassroots level, to actively contribute to and influence climate action.
The integration of climate change in public financial management processes is still in very early stages.
Climate change spending by the government or financed by development partners is not tracked or
identified yet in the annual budget, thus impeding the identification of climate change risks and/or
quantification of its potential fiscal impacts. In addition, climate change is not yet mainstreamed in
public investment management. Recent budget guidelines mention protecting the environment as an
objective, but do not provide requirements or guidelines to ensure budget allocation to climate change
issues through budget preparation. The budget circular 2022 refers to protecting the natural
environment and maintaining favorable physical environment for the daily life of the population and
future generations. However, there is no mention of climate change, or ensuring that climate change
and the environment are included by Ministry Department Agencies (MDAs) in budget submissions.
There is no legal or regulatory requirement to integrate climate change into public finance. As a first
step, it is important that the budget guidelines include a provision requiring sectoral ministries to
identify actions to mitigate/adapt climate change and forecast the necessary implementation budget.
This could first concern priority sectors such as environment, water, transport, urban planning, mining,
livestock, agriculture, forestry, and energy. In addition, spending (both external and domestic) on
climate change – including initiatives under Multilateral Environment Agreements (MEA) – should be
calculated and published each year.
43 Several of these steps assessed in terms of development/climate benefits and feasibility are presented in Chapter 3 under the various sector and
cross-cutting assessments including for agriculture, water, forestry, transport, energy, education and health.
44 Stratégie nationale de réduction des risques de catastrophes et adaptation au changement climatique SNRRC/ACC en République centrafricaine
2023- 7 q ’ The NAP has an explicit objective of integrated strategic DRM, including furthering multi-hazard monitoring and
EWS, which is fully in line with the DRR strategy and plan but has suffered from low implementation and specific legislation for operationalization.
35
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Climate change spending by the government or financed by development partners are not tracked or
identified in the annual budget. Climate change initiatives are mostly financed externally by
development partners – including technical support. The government has established mechanisms and
designated focal points for international climate funds, and the National Climate Coordination is
currently developing a climate finance strategy. The planned switch to a program budgeting cycle,
planned for 2025, can improve climate expenditure tracking and planned financing of local climate
plans implementation and should be prioritized. Fiscal transparency on a community level also needs
to be prioritized, jointly with domestic revenue mobilization efforts to enhance the effective use of
resources and encourage civic and political participation.
Financial mechanisms for climate action in CAR are constrained by limited clarity and strategic
direction, affecting the mobilization and effective use of resources. The financing landscape for climate
initiatives in CAR is marked by ambiguity, with insufficient delineation of public and climate finance
Th h h ’ b q
resources efficiently across climate projects. The challenge is further compounded by a shortage of
innovative financing models and private sector engagement. Disaster risk finance is also not yet
supported by structured risk finance mechanisms and instruments - the national DRM Plan outlines
various mechanisms at national level and through sectoral programs, but these are not fully
integrated.45
Capacity building and technology transfer efforts are crucial yet remain underdeveloped, impacting
CAR’s ability to implement and sustain climate initiatives. The diagnostic highlights a significant gap in
the technical and institutional capacities required for comprehensive climate action. This shortfall is
evident in the limited availability of skilled personnel, inadequate technological infrastructure, and the
absence of systematic knowledge transfer mechanisms. As a result, CAR struggles to keep pace with
the evolving demands of climate governance and to leverage technological advancements for
sustainable development.
Monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems are in their infancy, affecting transparency and
accountability in CAR’s climate governance. Effective MRV systems are foundational for assessing
progress, informing policy adjustments, and ensuring accountability in climate action. However, CAR ’s
MRV framework is nascent and lacks the robustness needed for precise environmental management
and response strategies. This deficiency not only impedes the evaluation of climate initiatives but also
restricts CAR’s capacity to fulfill international reporting obligations and to build trust among
stakeholders and partners.
The integration of science and traditional knowledge into CAR's climate planning is essential but
inadequately pursued, missing opportunities for enriched climate solutions. ’
framework has yet to fully embrace the integration of scientific research with indigenous knowledge
systems. Such integration is critical for developing adaptive strategies that are both evidence-based
and culturally pertinent. The current oversight of this amalgamation results is a missed opportunity for
leveraging a wide range of insights and practices in climate action.
Subnational entities play a pivotal role in climate governance, yet their engagement and capacity are
insufficiently addressed. The role of subnational governments and communities in translating national
climate goals into local action is undeniable. However, these entities often operate with limited risk
knowledge and information management systems, authority, resources, and capacity, undermining
their effectiveness in implementing adaptation and mitigation measures. Strengthening these local
actors is vital for ensuring the resilience and sustainability of climate action across CAR.
45The DRM Plan describes that for its financing, annual plans are to be submitted to Technical and Financial Partners so that the implementation of the
National DRM Plan / SNRRC would be supported by sectoral projects. In addition, the implementation will be financed by national contributions through
2% annual allocations from the State budget, the creation of a National Emergency Fund and revenues from taxes and regulations for environmental
protection. In case of emergencies, the Prime Minister would also have the option to call for emergency international aid according to predefined protocols.
36
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
2.4.3. Enhancing Institutional Frameworks for Effective Climate Action
The climate change institutions in CAR are weak. Relative to other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa
( ) ’ h h b h
Figure 2.1 ’ h h b h
of SSA. The lack of government presence in most parts of CAR underlines the lack of effective
administration and oversight that is essential for policy implementation. An emphasis needs to be
placed on creating a staged developmental plan that focuses on priority tasks that can be built up
gradually to achieve the desired institutional capacity to effectively achieve development and climate
goals.
The institutional framework in CAR, crucial for climate action, showcases some level of initial readiness
at the strategic level yet faces critical challenges needing immediate attention. The CCIA provides a
h h h h h ’ b
examined. While there are commendable strides towards establishing a structured approach to
environmental sustainability, highlighted by efforts to align with international climate governance norms
and the initiation of dedicated environmental bodies, the analysis brings to the forefront substantial
areas for improvement.
Accountability, transparency, and subnational engagement emerge as pivotal areas where CAR ’s
institutional framework requires significant enhancement. The CCIA diagnostic uncovers a landscape
where accountability mechanisms within CAR’s climate governance framework are noticeably absent.
This lack of accountability is exacerbated by dispersed responsibilities across agencies without clear
delineation, leading to inefficiencies and duplication of efforts. Transparency challenges further
compound these issues, with limited public access to information on climate initiatives stifling
stakeholder participation and undermining trust in climate governance. Moreover, subnational entities,
which are critical for the localized implementation of climate policies, find themselves sidelined due to
insufficient resources, authority, and capacity. This scenario highlights a disjointed approach to climate
governance, where the potential for effective, community-centric climate action remains largely
untapped.
Institutional capacity and coordination are identified as areas needing targeted interventions to bolster
’ Beyond accountability and transparency, the CCIA analysis points to a
dire need for enhancing the institutional capacity of entities tasked with climate governance. This
includes a shortage of technical expertise and a lack of cohesive coordination among key stakeholders,
including across levels of government (national and local entities) and cross-sectoral, which collectively
h ’ b Th
nature of these efforts not only detracts from the alignment with national priorities and international
commitments but also diminishes the overall ’
Addressing these challenges through comprehensive institutional reforms is paramount for CAR to
achieve its climate commitments and resilience goals. The diagnostic insights from the CCIA and the
specific sector reviews summarized in more details in the next chapter underscore the urgency for CAR
to embark on a path of institutional reform. This path involves clarifying roles, enhancing coordination
mechanisms, boosting transparency in climate governance, empowering local governments and
communities, and building the technical and operational capacities of institutions. Such reforms are
not merely administrative but are foundational to CAR’s broader aspirations for sustainable
development, resilience, and effective climate action. By adopting a holistic approach to institutional
enhancement, informed by the CCIA’s thorough institutional analysis and the sector recommendations
on policies, institutional strengthening, and investments46, CAR can lay the groundwork for a more
coherent, inclusive, and impactful climate governance framework.
46 Presented in Chapter 3.
37
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
2.5. Climate Finance
The proportion of the budget allocated to the (Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development)
is minimal (below 5% in 2024) and the MoFB does not recognize climate change associated risks
and/or the adverse impact of climate change. The capacity of the Ministry of Economics and Planning
and the Ministry of Finance and Budget to conduct regular projections needs to be enhanced before
ultimately incorporating climate and catastrophe projections effectively.
h h ’ b
remunerating carbon stocks and valuing removals within the future Article 6 international carbon
market of the Paris agreement is unrealistic without significant political measures to enhance
conservation efforts.47 The establishment of new protected areas, coupled with effective management
measures, could potentially pave the way for marketing Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes
(ITMOs) under Article 6.2. Yet, this approach requires the implementation of networks of permanent
plots or monitoring tools to demonstrate the net effect of these protected areas on increasing carbon
stocks nationwide, alongside strict adherence to the social safeguards of the REDD+ mechanism,
including avoiding population displacements and obtaining free, prior, and informed consent from local
communities.
Figure 2.1 Institutional Overview of CAR (benchmarked in comparison to other SSA countries)
Source: CLAIR database, 2024
The private sector in CAR faces numerous challenges hindering its operations, growth and development
lowering its capacity to partake in climate financing. Failures in accessing basic infrastructure, such as
electricity, internet communication, and steady and clean water supplies, lead to high operating costs
and hinders business competitiveness and growth. The informal sector dominates the Central African
private sector, and most formal SMEs operate in the service sector, with reliance on foreign inputs and
untapped innovation opportunities. Addressing these obstacles requires targeted reforms and
programs to promote equitable access to credit, improve infrastructure, enhance workforce skills,
47 More in Chapter 3.
38
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
reinforce private sector-related institutions and tackle corruption through streamlined regulations and
e-Governance, ultimately fostering private sector growth and sustainability in CAR.
CAR could enhance the efficacy of carbon finance in its wood and agriculture value chains by
emphasizing governance, transparency, traceability, and enforcement. These elements are
fundamental to the credibility of certified emission reductions (CERs) in the eyes of global market
actors, which is a prerequisite for the government to trade carbon credits effectively. Investments and
capacity-building support are essential for both institutions and the private sector to meet these
standards. For institutions, this means establishing robust systems for monitoring, reporting, and
verifying emissions reductions, ensuring that environmental benefits are real and measurable. For the
private sector, it involves adopting practices that are traceable and transparent, thereby holding the
entire value chain accountable for its environmental footprint. The development of a regulatory
framework that supports the generation and verification of carbon credits is crucial. Such a framework
would not only facilitate the trade of carbon credits but also guarantee that these credits represent
actual emission reductions. Building trust with global market participants is key for CAR's government
and businesses to effectively engage with international carbon markets. By focusing on strengthening
both institutional and private sector capacities, CAR can foster a more sustainable economy and
contribute to the global public good by actively mitigating climate change.
2.6. Solutions to enhance climate commitments, policies, and strategies
The comprehensive diagnostic and assessment outlined earlier in the chapter, has drawn extensively
h h ’ h (b
support, investment financing, and knowledge products). A synthesis of inferred recommendations and
solutions tailored to address the institutional, policy, regulatory, and strategic challenges encountered
by CAR is presented in Table 2.2. This synthesis aims to highlight the cohesive and integrated strategies
’ b h
the assessment concisely summarizes both the development and climate benefits, alongside the
feasibility of implementing these recommendations within CA ’ q
Table 2.2 Governance and Institutional Solutions to Enhance Development and Climate Benefits
Main Area Solutions Combined Combined Benefits Feasibility
Institutional Reforms Clarify Roles and Responsibilities; Enhance Streamlines governance and High
and Strengthening Coordination Mechanisms by the establishment enhances policy impact; ensures
of an inter-ministerial committee (ministries of coordinated climate action and
the environment, planning and finance) to regional development.
promote the monitoring, publication,
implementation of climate actions as well as
knowledge sharing
Comprehensive Overarching Legal Framework; Reform Land Promotes legal certainty, integrated Medium
Policy and Regulatory Use and Urban Planning Regulations urban development, and responsible
Enhancements land management; structured
approach to climate goals.
Integrated climate Integration of climate into the budget, enhance Promote awareness of climate actions High
change into public the integration of climate adaptation or and spending for MFB and MDAs and
finance mitigation into public investment planning promote climate adaptation or
mitigation through public investment
Strategic Planning Accountability and Transparency Mechanisms; Enhances governance transparency Medium
and Accountability Strengthen Subnational Entities’ Capacities and stakeholder trust; enables
effective, localized climate solutions.
Capacity Building and Detailed vulnerability studies and improved Elevates capacity for sustainable Medium
Technical Expertise information and early warning systems; development and economic
Enhancement Benchmark and Capacity Building; Launch resilience; improves implementation
Capacity-Building Programs of climate projects.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Innovative Financing Strategic Climate Financing Directions; Improves financial management for High
and Private Sector Enhance Private Sector Engagement development projects; stimulates
Mobilization economic growth and expands climate
action resources.
2.7. The Way Forward on the Nexus
’ h , methodically address the complex nexus of development,
fragility, and climate change, underscoring the interconnectedness that significantly impacts the
nation's progress and stability. As shown above, while they originate from different planning horizons
and intended with a different purpose, the NDP, NDC, and NAP each elaborate on how these dynamics
are interwoven across various sectors, outlining specific strategies to mitigate their adverse effects
while promoting sustainable development50.
In the domain of agriculture and water resources, these documents recognize the substantial role that
environmental factors play in determining economic and social stability. The agricultural sector, crucial
for the livelihood of approximately 75% of the population and a mainstay of CAR's economy, routinely
encounters challenges posed by climatic variability. This vulnerability is compounded by inadequate
water management, leading to exacerbated food insecurity during periods of drought or excessive
rainfall. The NDP cites that only 43% of the rural population has access to improved water sources,
contributing to decreased agricultural productivity and heightened fragility51.
Economic diversification is a critical focus across these plans, aiming to lessen CAR's dependence on
natural resource exploitation, which is often disrupted by conflicts and environmental degradation. By
fostering industries less reliant on natural resources, such as eco-tourism and renewable energy
sectors, these plans strive to establish more stable economic conditions that are resilient to the cycles
of conflict and resource depletion52.
Infrastructure development within these strategic documents is designed to build resilience against
environmental shocks. Acknowledging that robust infrastructure can significantly reduce vulnerability
to climate impacts, they propose extensive improvements to road, energy, and telecommunication
networks and promote integrated urban development investments. These physical investments need
to be accompanied by soft measures such as improved information management and early warnings.
These enhancements not only aim to withstand climate and environmental challenges but also
enhance economic stability by improving access to markets and services, thus reducing the fragility
associated with economic isolation53.
Yet, the cycle of development, fragility, and climate also poses numerous challenges, as conflict often
leads to environmental degradation, which in turn exacerbates climate vulnerability. Instances of
internal displacement due to conflicts increase the strain on urban infrastructure and resources,
leading to a cycle of degradation and increased vulnerability, particularly noted in the capital where
urban populations have swelled by 23% in the last five years due to internal migrations54.
To disrupt this vicious cycle, the strategic documents propose a suite of targeted actions: enhancing
legal and institutional frameworks to support resilient sustainable development and resource
management. This includes policies aimed at the effective and equitable management of
50 NDP: Chapter 2, Section 3; NDC: Strategy for Climate Resilience; NAP: Adaptation Measures
51 NDP: Chapter 1, Section 1; NDC: Agriculture Sector Mitigation Strategies; NAP: Section on Agricultural Adaptation
52 NDP: Chapter 3, Section 4; NDC: Renewable Energy Initiatives; NAP: Economic Diversification Strategies
53 NDP: Chapter 4; NDC: Infrastructure and Energy; NAP: Infrastructure Adaptation Plans
54 NDP: Introduction
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
environmental resources and strengthening critical infrastructure. This strategy is anticipated to
stabilize regions prone to resource conflicts, fostering a more secure and sustainable environment55.
b h ’ h h
sustainability. By empowering local populations through sustainable practices and decision-making
processes, the strategies aim to develop local capacities to manage and adapt to climate risks
effectively. This empowerment helps mitigate both fragility and underdevelopment by fostering
community resilience against environmental and economic shocks56.
These documents collectively envision a comprehensive strategy for breaking the cycle and nurturing
a virtuous cycle of development that integrates economic, environmental, and social strategies. This
all-encompassing approach aims to transform the interdependencies of development, fragility, and
climate into synergies that promote stability and sustainable growth. Through strategic governance,
resource management, and community empowerment, they anticipate transitioning CAR from a state
of fragility to one of resilience and proactive development, ensuring that all actions collectively
contribute to a sustainable and prosperous future57. The next chapters will examine how these
aspirational objectives and instruments are brought in in the various sectors of the economy and the
kind of solutions the country must consider implementing the overall vision and mobilize appropriate
resources to address the development-fragility-climate nexus.
55 NDP: Chapter 5, Section 2; NDC: Legal Frameworks; NAP: Governance and Institutional Framework
56 NDP: Chapter 5, Section 3; NDC: Community Engagement Strategies; NAP: Community-based Adaptation
57 NDP: Conclusion; NDC: Implementation Strategies; NAP: Long-term Vision
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
3. Wealth, Climate and Fragility: A Sector Perspective
3.1. Introduction
The Central African Republic (CAR), a nation endowed with vast natural resources and resilient
communities, stands at a pivotal juncture. Its path to sustainable development is fraught with
significant challenges—challenges deeply rooted in a complex interplay of underdevelopment, climate
vulnerability, and socio-political fragility. This chapter of the Country Climate and Development Report
’ h —human, natural, and physical—to
articulate a narrative that transitions from a current state of vulnerability to a future of resilience and
growth.
The objective of this chapter is to explore, through a sector-based analysis, how the interconnected
challenges of development, climate change, and fragility manifest across human, natural, and physical
capital in CAR. By dissecting these sectors and the spatial elements and population movements that
affect urban and rural trends, we aim to uncover the underlying factors that perpetuate the country's
vicious cycle of poverty and vulnerability and to identify strategic levers that can transform this cycle
into a virtuous one, fostering sustainable development and resilience.
’ h b h h
sectors. From the ’ struggle with climate-induced variability affecting food security,
to the ’ battles against resource degradation and unsustainable exploitation.
The health and education sectors are marred by inadequate access and poor infrastructure, severely
impacting human capital development. Meanwhile, the transport, urban development, and energy
sectors face significant infrastructure deficits, limiting economic growth and adaptation capacities.
Th h h b ’ b h h
increased temperatures, erratic rainfall, and extreme weather events threatening to exacerbate existing
pressures on natural and human capital while undermining physical infrastructure.
Th ’ h b
also a testament to opportunities. Opportunities that lie in sustainable land and water management
practices capable of revitalizing the agriculture sector; in renewable energy potentials that can
transform the energy landscape; in education and healthcare reforms that can build a resilient and
capable workforce; and in resilient infrastructure projects that can secure and connect communities.
Recognizing and harnessing these opportunities requires an integrated approach that transcends
sectoral silos, leveraging the synergies between development goals, climate adaptation strategies, and
efforts to mitigate and manage fragility.
This chapter endeavors to provide a comprehensive overview of the intertwined challenges and
’ . By laying out a roadmap for breaking the current vicious cycle of
vulnerability and setting the foundations for a virtuous cycle of growth, climate adaptation, and conflict
management, this report aims to chart a course toward a sustainable and resilient future for CAR.
Through detailed analysis and strategic recommendations, this narrative seeks not only to inform but
to inspire action towards transformative change.
3.2. Understanding CAR's Vicious Cycle
3.2.1. Development and Fragility in CAR
CAR is ensnared in a vicious cycle of development challenges, marked by socio-political instability,
entrenched poverty, and significant infrastructure deficits. These challenges are not isolated
phenomena but are interlinked, each exacerbating the others. Socio-political instability, characterized
by recurrent conflicts and political upheavals, has deeply scarred the nation, disrupting economic
activities, displacing communities and eroded trust and social cohesion. This instability has contributed
42
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
to a landscape where close to 71% of the population lives below the poverty line, according to the World
Bank. The pervasive poverty is both a cause and consequence of inadequate infrastructure, with less
than 16% of the population having access to electricity and a significant portion of roads being
impassable for parts of the year leaving people without access to services and goods. This environment
not only hinders economic development and access to essential services but also amplifies the
country's vulnerability to external shocks, including those induced by climate change.
3.2.2. Climate Vulnerability
Climate change acts as a magnifier of existing vulnerabilities in CAR, with its impacts felt across all
sectors, further complicating the development landscape. In the agriculture sector, which employs a
vast majority of the population, increased temperatures and changing rainfall patterns threaten crop
yields and food security, pushing more people into poverty. The health sector, already struggling with
inadequate infrastructure and services, faces additional pressures from climate-sensitive diseases,
such as malaria, whose prevalence is expected to rise with warmer temperatures and more frequent
rainfalls. Water resources, critical for agriculture, drinking, and sanitation, are becoming increasingly
unpredictable, exacerbating water stress and conflict over access. The forestry sector, a crucial carbon
sink and source of livelihood, is under threat from changing climate conditions that contribute to the
degradation and deforestation of CAR's vast forested areas. Urban development is already struggling
to keep pace with population growth, facing a myriad of challenges preventing resilient and inclusive
development, which is exacerbated by recurrent floods and erosion risks, whereas rural communities
are struggling with providing services to the population that are suffering from the effects of climate
change. Th h b h ’
where each factor intensifies the other, creating a complex web of challenges that impedes sustainable
development and resilience building.
Natural Capital, Fragility, and Climate Change
The vicious cycle in CAR begins with the degradation of natural capital—forests, water resources,
biodiversity, and arable land—which is both a cause and consequence of fragility and climate change.
Unsustainable agricultural practices, illegal logging, and mining exert pressure on natural resources,
reducing biodiversity and ecosystem services vital for livelihoods and resilience against climate shocks.
This degradation of natural capital contributes to fragility by undermining economic stability and food
security, exacerbating poverty and social tensions. Fragile governance structures struggle to enforce
environmental protection laws or manage natural resources sustainably, leading to further degradation.
The situation is exacerbated by climate change, which introduces additional stresses through increased
frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as droughts and floods. These climate shocks
further strain CAR's natural resources, reducing agricultural yields, and increasing competition for water
and land, thereby heightening the risk of conflict and displacement. In this vicious cycle, the
degradation of natural capital weakens the state's capacity to address fragility, while fragility
undermines efforts to manage and protect natural resources, and climate change amplifies these
challenges, creating a feedback loop that perpetuates vulnerability and instability.
In CAR, the natural capital sectors of agriculture, water, and forestry are crucial for livelihoods and the
economy but are hindered by significant challenges. Agriculture, the backbone of CAR's economy,
suffers from low productivity due to traditional farming methods, inadequate access to improved seeds,
and a lack of irrigation infrastructure, resulting in an over-reliance on erratic rainfall patterns. This
scenario is exacerbated by climate change, which introduces additional variability and extreme weather
conditions, further threatening food security. The water sector faces its own set of challenges, with vast
but underutilized water resources. Despite CAR's abundant rivers and rainfall, water stress is common
due to inadequate management and infrastructure to capture, store, and distribute water efficiently.
h h ’ hb
and contribute to global climate change. Illegal logging, driven by both domestic and international
demand, along with slash-and-burn agriculture, reduces forest cover, affecting the livelihoods of
communities dependent on forest resources and disrupting local ecosystems. It also has a profound
impact on the indigenous peoples that are dependent on the forests for their livelihoods. The high
43
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
number of IDPs is also having an impact on deforestations as people tend to cut down tries for cooking,
particular around the outskirt of urban areas.
Forests and Climate
In addressing the critical challenges within the CAR forestry sector, an in-depth exploration reveals a
landscape marked by significant threats and vast potential for sustainable development and climate
resilience. This sector could play a critical role in breaking the vicious cycle of development-fragility
climate in CAR and using the solutions proposed to engage in a more virtuous cycle. The challenges
posed by deforestation, degradation, and unsustainable land use are formidable, with the country's
forests, covering 22.3 million hectares—approximately 45% of its landmass—facing increasing threats.
Between 2002 and 2022, CAR experienced the loss of 202,000 hectares of humid primary forest,
underscoring the urgency of reversing this trend. The escalating annual deforestation rate, from 0.25%
in the early 2000s to 0.27% by 2010-2020, highlights the pressing need for strategic action.
The comprehensive forestry sector frameworks established by CAR, including the REDD+58 strategy and
updates to the Forest Code, are designed to enhance legislative and policy foundations for sustainable
forest management. These frameworks, essential for aligning national policies with global
environmental standards, emphasize the importance of carbon sequestration and community rewards
for conservation efforts. However, the effectiveness of these frameworks is contingent on overcoming
implementation challenges, highlighting the necessity for international collaboration and support.
A set of proposed solutions, encompassing legal reforms, REDD+ expansion, international
partnerships, agroforestry promotion, and community engagement, offers a pathway to sustainable
forestry management. For example, expanding REDD+ could catalyze significant environmental and
socio- b ’ b h
local development. These solutions are poised to transform CAR's forestry sector, promoting
sustainable land use and enhancing the country's resilience to climate change. Table 3.1 presents a
streamlined overview of each solution's nature, the key benefits they offer for development and climate,
and an assessment of their feasibility considering CAR's context.
Table 3.1 Assessment of Proposed Solutions for the Forestry Sector
Solution Nature Key Benefits Feasibility
REDD+ Expansion Investment & Enhances socio-economic High, with international support and
Policy development; increases carbon community engagement.
storage.
Legal Reforms Policy & Improves governance; prevents illegal Medium, requires political will and
Institutional deforestation. administrative capacity.
International Institutional & Attracts funding; enables conservation High, dependent on effective diplomacy
Partnerships Investment projects. and global alignment.
Agroforestry Investment & Boosts agricultural productivity; High, needs farmer education and
Promotion Policy mitigates land use pressure. extension services.
Community Institutional & Strengthens local governance; ensures Medium, challenging administratively but
Engagement Policy sustainable conservation. crucial for long-term success.
’ h linchpin for sustainable
development within a fragile ecological and socio-political context Th ’
by the outlined strategic frameworks and solutions, presents an opportunity to shift from a vicious cycle
of development challenges and environmental degradation to a virtuous cycle of sustainability and
resilience. This transition is crucial for CAR, offering a pathway to not only preserve its rich biodiversity
but also to harness its forest resources as a cornerstone of national and global environmental efforts.
Agriculture, Food security, and Climate
Th b ’ b
impacting the nation's development and food security. Agriculture (crops and livestock) is the backbone
of CAR's economy and societal fabric, supporting approximately 75% of the population for subsistence
and constituting about 30% of GDP. Despite its critical role, the sector is plagued by outdated practices
and minimal technological integration. For instance, cassava production, vital for food security,
58 E " E ”; h “+” signifies the role of conservation, sustainable management
of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks.
44
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
plummeted from 1,532,867 tons in 2010 to 1,094,000 tons in 2022, while primary cereal production
saw an 86% increase from 157,410 tons to 294,070 tons between the same years, attributed mainly
to the expansion of cultivation areas rather than yield improvements. The FAO highlights that yields
have in fact decreased, moving from 9 tons per hectare in 2010 to 8.3 tons per hectare in 2022, with
adverse weather conditions partly to blame. The sector's heavy reliance on rainfall exposes it to the
harsh realities of climate change, with extreme weather events, shifts in precipitation patterns, and
periodic dry spells disrupting agricultural output and livelihoods.
In response to these challenges, CAR has instituted a comprehensive set of strategies, policies, and
legal frameworks aimed at rejuvenating its agricultural sector towards sustainability and resilience.
Central to this endeavor is the Strategy for Rural Development, Agriculture, and Food Security (SDRASA),
the Agricultural Framework Law, and the National Agricultural Policy Document (DPAN 2020-2030).
These frameworks collectively outline a vision for a productive, profitable, and sustainable agriculture
sec b h ’
integrating climate adaptation into agricultural development is reflected in the REDD+ program, the
2021 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), and the Initial National Adaptation Plan to Climate
Change. These initiatives signify a strategic pivot towards embedding climate resilience within the
sector, ensuring that agricultural practices not only align with national development goals but also
contribute to global environmental efforts.
The proposed adaptation options aim to fortify CAR's agriculture sector against the impacts of climate
change, leveraging strategic planning and international commitments to foster a sustainable and
resilient agricultural framework. Initiatives under Promoting Sustainable Agriculture are essential,
enhancing agricultural productivity while conserving the environment through the promotion of climate-
resilient crop varieties and sustainable practices like agroforestry. This approach addresses the dual
challenges of improving food security and mitigating environmental degradation. In parallel, Adaptive
Agricultural Research is focused on developing crop varieties resistant to water stress and temperature
variations, particularly for vulnerable communities, enhancing both technical and material capacities
for crop development. The Management of Climatic Events strategy is critical, establishing a robust
early warning and information system to manage climate variability risks effectively, ensuring food
security in the face of unpredictable weather. Additionally, Climate Resilience in Pastoral Systems
adjusts land use for grazing and transhumance in response to climatic changes, reducing conflicts and
promoting sustainable practices, further supported by measures like developing water reservoirs and
improving veterinary services to enhance traditional pastoral livelihoods' resilience. Collectively, these
strategies embody CAR's comprehensive approach to adapting its agricultural sector to climate
challenges, reflecting a commitment to sustainable development and resilience building.
These adaptation options summarized in Table 3.2 represent a concerted effort to transform CAR's
h ’ resilience against climate change. By prioritizing
sustainable, intensive, and diversified agricultural practices, alongside robust research and risk
management strategies, CAR seeks to initiate a transformative journey from vulnerability to vitality. This
strategic pivot is not only essential for breaking the cycle of fragility and underdevelopment but also for
’ b
Women are particularly vulnerable to climate change in the agricultural sector which is acknowledge in
h ’ h . Although the national law acknowledge that
h h h ’ ’ Th
have lower access to technology and have higher illiteracy rates than men and socio-cultural norms
make it diffic h h T ’
generating groups is seen as one priority action by the national gender and climate change strategy.
Table 3.2 Assessment of Proposed Solutions for the Agriculture Sector
Solution Nature Key Benefits Feasibility
Sustainable Agriculture Policy & Investment Enhances food security and High, with need for technical
Promotion environmental conservation; support and community
promotes climate-resilient engagement.
practices.
Adaptive Agricultural Investment & Policy Develops drought and Medium, requires investment
Research temperature-resistant crop in research and development
infrastructure.
45
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
varieties; supports vulnerable
communities.
Management of Institutional Establishes early warning systems; Medium to High, dependent
Climatic Events Strengthening & mitigates risks from climate on technological
Policy variability. infrastructure and data
availability.
Climate Resilience in Policy & Institutional Reduces conflict over land use; Medium. involves complex
Pastoral Systems Strengthening & promotes sustainable livestock land use planning and
Investment management. Reduces conflict community consensus.
over land use. Requires investment in small
Contributes to soil restoration. infrastructure (water points,
Limit transhumance negative rural roads/trails, pastures
impacts management) and
community engagement
Water Security and Climate
CAR faces pressing water security challenges, compounded by socioeconomic instability and climate
change impacts. With a low Human Development Index ranking (188 out of 191 countries), CAR's
vulnerability is stark. The country's struggle with internal conflicts and limited economic growth is
exacerbated by its high vulnerability to climate change, as evidenced by disruptive flooding events in
2012, 2017, and 2019. Future projections indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of such
extreme weather events, posing significant risks to water resource management and agricultural
productivity.
Despite its abundant water resources, CAR's utilization of these assets remains minimal, highlighting a
gap between potential and actual water management practices. CAR is endowed with an extensive
hydrographic network and boasts significant renewable water resources, with an average precipitation
of 1,343 mm/year and water availability of approximately 25,800 m³/year per person. This abundance
contrasts sharply with the country's actual water withdrawals, which constitute only a small fraction of
the available resources, underscoring the untapped potential in enhancing water security and
supporting sustainable development.
Climate change presents substantial risks to CAR's water availability and quality, necessitating adaptive
measures to safeguard water resources. Historical data reveals a concerning rise in average
temperatures by 0.8°C over the last three decades, accompanied by alterations in rainfall patterns that
threaten agricultural cycles, water availability for irrigation, and ecosystem sustainability. These climatic
shifts, including the increase in hot days projected under high-emission scenarios, highlight the urgent
need for integrated water resource management (IWRM) practices to ensure the resilience of water
supplies against climate variability.
CAR has laid the groundwork for improving water security through the adoption of comprehensive
policies and regulatory frameworks focusing on integrated water resource management (IWRM). The
National Water Policy and related strategic documents reflect CAR's commitment to enhancing water
governance, promoting stakeholder engagement, and fostering investment synergies in water projects.
These initiatives aim to improve water quality, expand storage capabilities, and build resilience against
flood hazards. However, the realization of IWRM goals is hindered by challenges in financing,
management instrument implementation, and the need for greater investment in water infrastructure.
To address water security and climate resilience, CAR must prioritize sustainable and scalable
interventions across the water sector. Essential actions include implementing watershed management
to improve land and water productivity, constructing small dams for diversified agricultural practices,
and expanding irrigation schemes to enhance efficiency. Moreover, water harvesting techniques and
the development of resilient agricultural infrastructures are crucial for increasing climate resilience and
ensuring food security. Equally important is the enhancement of basic water supply and sanitation
services to promote public health and equitable access to clean water. Water scarcity might also amplify
tensions, such as increased competition between herders and farmers over water.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Investments in CAR's water sector are critical for achieving sustainable development goals and
ensuring the nation's resilience to climate change. The proposed measures require substantial financial
commitment and strategic planning to materialize. By strengthening water management systems,
enhancing agricultural resilience, and improving access to clean water and sanitation services, CAR
can leverage its water resources for sustainable development, climate adaptation, and the well-being
of its fast-growing population. To ensure that water is accessible in the communities is also important
h ’ h h h b
themselves at risk for gender-based violence. Household chores are also one of the main reasons why
girls are not attending schools.
This brief assessment on the water sector and climate risks underscores the imperative for CAR to
adopt integrated, sustainable solutions to navigate its water security challenges, leverage opportunities
for resilience, and foster sustainable growth amidst climate uncertainties. Table 3.3 offers a concise
overview of strategic solutions aimed at enhancing water security and resilience in CAR, presenting
their nature, anticipated benefits, and the feasibility of implementation based on a preliminary
assessment provided in the related background paper. Each solution is targeted to address specific
aspects of the water challenge in CAR, from improving water availability and quality (watershed
management on one million hectares and 500 million m3 of additional water storage) to ensuring
sustainable agricultural practices (development of small-scale irrigated agriculture up to 150 thousand
hectares, and rehabilitation and extension of inland valley swamps for farming over up to one million
hectares) and supporting socio-economic development (up to two million beneficiaries), as well as
securing access to safe water and sanitation (approximately four million beneficiaries gaining access
to water supply and five million to sanitation services,). Achieving the SDG targets would need capital
investments of 5.8 billion USD by 2030. The feasibility assessment considers various factors, including
technical requirements, financial resources, policy support, and community engagement, essential for
the successful realization of these interventions. A more detailed assessment based on new data and
economic/financial analyses, and direct/indirect impacts on households and communities should be
conducted by authorities to serve as an input to future national and sector plans of action on
development and climate.
Table 3.3 Assessment of Proposed Solutions for CAR's Water Sector
Solution Nature Key Benefits Feasibility
Watershed Policy & Enhances land and water Medium; needs cross-sectoral coordination and
Management Investment productivity; supports rural community involvement.
employment.
Water Storage Investment & Secures water supply for diverse High; subject to availability of funding and
Enhancement Infrastructure uses; improves agricultural environmental impact studies.
resilience.
Small-scale Investment & Increases agricultural output; Medium to High; technical and maintenance
Irrigation Schemes Technology promotes efficient water use. support essential.
Water Harvesting Investment & Supports rainfed agriculture; Medium to High; needs community involvement
Techniques Infrastructure boosts food security. and technical assistance.
Infrastructure Investment & Strengthens agro-food sector Medium; requires comprehensive investment in
Resilience Building Infrastructure resilience; enhances economic infrastructure development.
stability.
Water Supply and Policy & Improves public health; ensures High; crucial for well-being and sustainable
Sanitation Services Infrastructure access to clean water and development, needs governmental and
sanitation. international backing. Sustained, quality service
provision dependent on operational improvements
and financial sustainability of service providers.
Provide equal Investment Decrease the risk of conflict Medium to high, requires community involvement
access to water for and between herders and farmers by and investments from international partners
herders and farmers infrastructure providing access to water for both
herders and famers
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Drought, Desertification, and Land Degradation: A Natural Capital Cross-cutting Perspective
CAR grapples with the severe impacts of desertification, land degradation, and drought, posing
significant threats to its economy and societal well-being. Drawing upon critical resources such as the
Third National Communication (TNC) to the UNFCCC, National Adaptation Plan (NAP) 2021, the World
Bank's Climate Risk Country Profile for CAR (2021), the UNCCD National Report for CAR, and the
"Stratégie Nationale de Développement Durable 2021 – 2025" (SNDD), this analysis highlights the
escalating challenges CAR faces. With desertification and land degradation affecting a growing portion
of the land and population, and drought exacerbating water scarcity and agricultural disruption, the
urgency for comprehensive adaptation and mitigation strategies is clear.
THE EXPANDING CRISIS OF DESERTIFICATION , LAND DEGRADATION , AND DROUGHT
Desertification and land degradation in CAR have reached alarming levels, significantly impacting the
environment and the populace. The UNCCD National Report for CAR (2022) reveals an expansion of
degraded land from 9,893 km² to 32,458 km², affecting 5.85% of the population. This degradation,
primarily driven by deforestation for agricultural expansion and unsustainable land management,
underscores the necessity for integrated land management strategies. The SNDD reports a 13.13%
national territory degradation between 2000 and 2010, largely due to shifting cultivation, highlighting
the extensive nature of this challenge.
Drought poses another critical threat to CAR, impacting millions of hectares and exposing a significant
portion of the population to water scarcity which might lead to displacement of people. The UNCCD
National Report (2022) quantifies drought-affected areas at 4.95 million hectares, affecting 9.23% of
the population. These conditions severely impact food security, livelihoods, and water availability, with
the World Bank's Climate Risk Profile (2021) and the SNDD emphasizing the compounded effects of
ecosystem degradation on water resources.
The socioeconomic impacts of these environmental crises are profound, leading to diminished
agricultural productivity, increased food insecurity, and heightened rural poverty. The UNCCD National
Report (2022) notes up to a 12% reduction in crop yields in the worst-affected areas, with agriculture,
the backbone of CAR's economy, facing exacerbated challenges. The rural poverty rate, food insecurity
affecting nearly 43% of the population, and a 20% increase in rural-to-urban migration over the past
decade highlight the urgent need for action. Increased drought and shortage of water might also
increase tensions and competition amongst herders and farmers.
STRATEGIC RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES
CAR has developed various strategic documents and policies to combat desertification, land
degradation, and drought. The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) 2021 and the SNDD outline the country's
commitment to sustainable development and environmental conservation. The SNDD's goal to
integrate environmental externalities into development strategies by 2025 reflects a strategic approach
to mitigate the socio-economic impacts of these environmental crises.
Pathways to Sustainability and Resilience
Sustainable Land Management (SLM), efficient water resource management, and reforestation efforts
are crucial for addressing CAR's environmental challenges. The SNDD emphasizes restoring soil health,
improving water availability, and enhancing agricultural productivity through SLM practices. These
efforts, coupled with reforestation and afforestation, aim to sequester carbon, rehabilitate degraded
lands, and bolster climate resilience.
Policy integration and international support are essential for the successful implementation of
adaptation and mitigation measures. Developing policies that promote SLM, ecosystem protection, and
sustainable natural resource use, backed by international financing, is vital. The SNDD's emphasis on
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
ecological awakening, environmental leadership, and a green economy enriches CAR's framework for
sustainable development.
CAR's battle against desertification, land degradation, and drought requires immediate, strategic
actions informed by robust evidence and global cooperation. Addressing these challenges effectively is
paramount for ensuring CAR's environmental sustainability and socio-economic resilience in the face
of climate change. Immediate and strategic actions, supported by more detailed analyses highlight
costs, benefits and impacts, are imperative to address these challenges effectively, ensuring CAR's
environmental sustainability and socio-economic resilience in the face of climate change. Table 3.4
summarizes some cross-cutting solutions involving several ministries with a mandate to work on the
natural capital.
Table 3.4 Proposed Solutions for Combating Drought, Desertification, and Land Degradation
Solution Brief Content Nature of the Development Climate Benefits Assessing
Solution Benefits Feasibility
Soil Restoration and Implement Policy & Increases food Enhances soil High; requires
Productivity Sustainable Land Investment security and carbon community
Enhancement Management (SLM) livelihoods for sequestration engagement and
practices to restore rural populations. and biodiversity. capacity building.
soil health and
improve
agricultural
productivity.
Resilient Water Efficient Policy & Secures water Contributes to Medium;
Management management and Infrastructure availability for ecosystem dependent on
utilization of water agriculture and resilience and investments in
resources to human reduces infrastructure and
mitigate the consumption. vulnerability to technology.
impacts of drought. drought.
Reforestation and Initiatives to Investment & Prevents soil Sequesters Medium to High;
Afforestation increase forest Policy erosion, improves carbon and needs long-term
cover through water regulation, restores commitment and
reforestation and and supports degraded land public-private
afforestation. livelihoods. areas. partnerships.
Sustainable Land and Develop and Policy & Aligns national Reduces the rate High; crucial for
Ecosystem Governance enforce policies Institutional development of desertification sustainable
supporting SLM, Strengthening strategies with and land development but
ecosystem environmental degradation. requires political
protection, and sustainability will and
sustainable goals. international
resource use. cooperation.
Notes: Nature of the Solution: Identifies whether the approach is driven by policy changes, investments in new technologies or infrastructure, or efforts to
strengthen institutional capabilities. Development Benefits: Highlights how the solutions contribute to socio-economic development, such as by improving
food security, supporting rural economies, and enhancing living conditions. Climate Benefits: Outlines the positive impacts on climate change mitigation
and adaptation, including improved land and water management practices and increased carbon storage. Assessing Feasibility: Evaluates the practicality
of implementing these solutions, considering financial, technical, social, and political factors that could influence success.
3.2.3. Human Capital: Education and Health
In CAR, the interplay between human capital, fragility, and climate change can be understood through
the conceptual frameworks of vicious and virtuous cycles. These cycles illuminate how the state of
human capital—encompassing the health, education, skills, and overall well-being of the population—
both influences and is influenced by the country's fragility and its ability to adapt to climate change.
The education and health sectors in CAR are critically under-resourced, impacting the development of
h h ’ h The education sector struggles with low
enrollment rates, gender disparities, insufficient infrastructure, and a lack of qualified teachers. These
challenges are magnified by ongoing conflict, which frequently leads to school closures and interrupts
children's education, setting back generations and perpetuating a cycle of poverty. Health care in CAR
is marked by a lack of access to basic services, with a significant portion of the population living far
from medical facilities. The health sector suffers from a shortage of healthcare professionals,
inadequate supplies, and poor infrastructure. This situation results in high rates of preventable
diseases, maternal and child mortality, and a life expectancy among the lowest globally. These factors,
combined with the health impacts of climate change and the additional burden of climate-related
diseases, underscore the urgent need for investment in health and education to build a resilient and
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
capable workforce. The National Development Plan (under preparation) recognized the challenges and
puts forward a vision that by 2028 the Central African population has access equal access to qualitative
basic social services and human capital is developed.
T h ’ h h h h
system in place. The Government is committed to put together a comprehensive system and has
recently relaunched the process of preparing a national social protection strategy. The NDP highlights
that social protection should be available for the poorest segment of the society. None-the-less, the
country is far from having a comprehensive social protection system in place. As of today, the social
cash transfer projects that exists are mainly funded by international partners such as the World Bank
and UNICEF.
Education & Climate
SECTOR PROFILE
The education sector in the CAR is deeply impacted by the country's vulnerability to climate change,
which exacerbates existing challenges in educational access, infrastructure, and quality. Only 65% of
children in CAR are enrolled in primary education, and a significantly lower percentage, 15%, advance
to secondary education. This precarious situation is aggravated by climate-related disasters such as
floods and droughts, which not only destroy educational infrastructure but also exacerbate
socioeconomic pressures that divert children, especially those from rural areas, away from schooling59.
A staggering 30% of school buildings have been reported to suffer from weather-related damage,
affecting over 250,000 students each year This damage to educational facilities underscores the
urgent need for resilient infrastructure capable of withstanding the increasing frequency and intensity
of climate shocks60. Furthermore, the reliance of many communities on agriculture for livelihoods,
which is highly susceptible to climate variability, often forces a choice between survival and education,
leading to higher rates of absenteeism and school dropouts.
However, the nexus of education and climate change also presents a pivotal opportunity for CAR to
build resilience through educational initiatives. Integrating climate change adaptation and
sustainability into the curriculum is highlighted as a key strategy for empowering the next generation
with the knowledge and tools to face climate challenges. Such education not only fosters awareness
but also prepares students to contribute effectively to the nation's climate resilience and sustainable
development.
Urgent interventions are required to address the dual challenges of improving access to quality
education and making the education system resilient to climate impacts. Enhancing the structural
resilience of schools and advocating for climate-smart agricultural practices can mitigate the adverse
effects of climate change on education. These measures, together with efforts to increase enrollment
and retention rates, particularly for girls and vulnerable populations, are crucial for securing the future
of CAR's educational sector in the face of climatic changes.
FRAMEWORKS ADDRESSING EDUCATION AND CLIMATE
CAR's national education strategies underscore the urgency of enhancing educational infrastructure
resilience and improving learning environments in response to climate vulnerability. The integration of
climate resilience measures into the education sector's development plans is a crucial step forward61.
While these strategies aim to elevate educational access and quality, they increasingly recognize the
importance of embedding climate considerations into their core objectives, marking a pivotal direction
for future educational resilience efforts.
Integration of climate adaptation into educational curricula represents a forward-thinking approach to
instill climate awareness among students and educators. The CARE World Bank Project identifies the
59 CCDR Background Paper on Education, 2024.
60 CARE World Bank Project PAD, 2024
61 CCDR Background Paper on Education, 2024.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
aspiration to weave climate change adaptation strategies into the fabric of educational content,
pointing towards the cultivation of a climate-conscious generation. Although explicit instances of this
integration are at the developmental stage, the intention signals a commitment to preparing students
to navigate and address the challenges posed by climate change effectively.
Collaboration with international partners is key to advancing emergency preparedness plans that
include climate shocks, aiming to safeguard educational continuity amidst natural disasters. The efforts
to develop such comprehensive emergency strategies, as suggested by ongoing dialogues and
initiatives, reflect an acute awareness of the necessity to fortify the education sector against climate-
induced disruptions. These collaborative endeavors, though in their initial phases, are crucial for laying
the groundwork for a resilient educational framework capable of withstanding the adversities brought
about by climate variability and change.
SOLUTIONS
In addressing the pressing challenges at the intersection of climate change and education within the
CAR, a strategic set of solutions is proposed to foster resilience and adaptability within the educational
sector. These solutions are formulated around the priority areas identified in the deep dive documents,
articulating a comprehensive response through programs, investments, policy reforms, and institutional
strengthening efforts aimed at mitigating climate impacts and enhancing educational outcomes.
A Climate Resilience in Education Program (C-REP) could aim to fortify the education system against
climate shocks. This wide-ranging initiative could encompass the development of contingency plans,
including preparedness and response strategies tailored to the educational context. A pivotal aspect of
C-REP would be the construction and rehabilitation of schools using climate-resilient designs and
materials, as guided by an operational manual for school construction. These efforts are underpinned
by simulation exercises to educate the school community on climate risks and emergency protocols,
alongside the provision of essential emergency supplies, thus ensuring that schools remain safe havens
of learning even in the face of climate adversities.
To address vulnerabilities in areas already impacted by climate change, a School Climate Risk
Assessment and Mitigation Initiative (SCRAMI) could be designed. SCRAMI could focus on identifying
schools in high-risk zones and implementing targeted response plans to mitigate identified risks
effectively. Through detailed climate risk assessments and subsequent infrastructural and educational
adjustments, SCRAMI endeavors to safeguard educational continuity and infrastructure integrity,
thereby enhancing the resilience of educational facilities to climate-induced challenges.
A Climate Knowledge for Education (CKE) initiative would be pivotal in cultivating a climate-literate
generation. By integrating climate change into the educational curriculum and ensuring its effective
delivery, CKE could empower students with the knowledge and skills necessary for sustainable living
and climate resilience. Additionally, this initiative extends continuous support and training to all
educational stakeholders, encompassing teachers, school staff, and the broader community, thus
fostering a comprehensive understanding and response to climate risks.
Enhancing the capacity of construction firms and school management through a Climate-Smart
Construction Training Program (CSCTP) is critical. CSCTP could offer specialized training in assessing
climate risks and implementing climate-resilient construction practices, aiming to improve the overall
resilience of educational infrastructure. By focusing on green building standards and energy-efficient
materials, this program ensures that new and rehabilitated school buildings are both sustainable and
conducive to learning.
To cement these efforts, an Education Sector Climate Resilience Policy (ESCRP) must advocate for the
formal adoption of climate resilience and sustainability practices within the education sector. Through
policy development and institutional strengthening, ESCRP could establish a framework that mandates
climate risk assessments and the integration of climate education across schooling levels, thereby
institutionalizing a climate-resilient approach to education.
By adopting this suite of solutions, the CAR CCDR lays out a vision for transforming the educational
landscape in the face of climate change. The new World Bank Project CARE under preparation offers a
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
concrete opportunity to operationalize a multifaceted strategy to not only seek to protect educational
access and infrastructure from climate shocks but also to empower the CAR community with the
resilience and knowledge to actively engage in climate change adaptation efforts, thus ensuring a more
sustainable and prosperous future for the nation's educational sector. Table 3.5 synthesizes the
proposed interventions within CAR's education sector, emphasizing their nature, anticipated
developmental and climate benefits, and the overall feasibility of implementation.
Table 3.5 Solutions for Climate-Smart Education Sector in CAR
Solution Label Nature Key Benefits Feasibility
Climate Resilience in Education Investment & Enhances educational continuity and access and High
Program Program improves learning environments in the face of climate
shocks.
School Climate Risk Assessment Policy Reform & Protects educational infrastructure and integrity in Medium
and Mitigation Investment climate-impacted areas.
Climate Knowledge for Education Program & Capacity Empowers with knowledge for resilience and High
Building sustainable living, fostering a climate-literate
generation.
Climate-Smart Construction Capacity Building Improves construction practices for climate resilience, Medium
Training Program supporting low-carbon infrastructure projects.
Education Sector Climate Policy Reform Establishes a framework for educational resilience and Medium
Resilience Policy sustainability, institutionalizing climate adaptation.
Health & Climate
SECTOR PROFILE AND CLIMATE -RELATED RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES
The health sector in CAR faces profound challenges compounded by climate-related risks, yet there
exist significant opportunities for resilience and development. CAR's ranking at the bottom of the
Human Capital Index, with children expected to achieve only 29% of their potential productivity,
underscores the severity of its health crisis. The country grapples with some of the world's highest
maternal and child mortality rates, with maternal deaths at 829 per 100,000 live births and a neonatal
mortality rate of 28 per 1,000 live births. Malaria, HIV, and malnutrition prevalently undermine health,
with malaria accounting for nearly 40% of health facility visits. These issues are exacerbated by climate
change, leading to increased disease vulnerability and health infrastructure challenges. However,
opportunities for enhancing healthcare resilience through climate adaptation measures are recognized,
with strategies aimed at strengthening infrastructure against extreme weather, improving disease
surveillance, and integrating climate considerations into health planning and policies. These strategies
offer a pathway to not only mitigate the immediate impacts of climate change on health but also to
build a sustainable foundation for the future development of CAR's health sector.
FRAMEWORKS
In CAR, strategic frameworks aim to bridge the gap between health, development, and climate change,
offering a blueprint for a resilient future. While a health sector-specific strategy for climate risks is
pending, CAR's inclusion of health as a priority in its NDC 2021 signals a comprehensive approach to
integrating climate considerations into health system strengthening and planning. The NDC sets forth
commitments to low-carbon development and adaptation measures across social and productive
sectors by 2030, with health at the forefront. This policy direction is supported by strategic investments
and collaborations with international partners like the World Bank, through initiatives such as the
Health Service Delivery and System Strengthening project, the COVID-19 Project and the Regional
Disease Surveillance Project. These efforts embody a multi-faceted approach, combining investment,
policy reform, and institutional strengthening to fortify CAR's health sector against climate-induced
vulnerabilities. Together, these frameworks form the basis of CAR's strategy to not only confront the
immediate challenges posed by climate change but also to harness opportunities for sustainable health
and development outcomes.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
MENU FOR ACTION
Some targeted solutions to the intertwined challenges of health, development, and climate change,
b h ’ These solutions encompass the
enhancement of healthcare infrastructure to withstand climate extremes, bolstering the capacity and
development of healthcare workers to manage climate-related health risks, expanding public health
interventions for disease control and prevention, developing a national health adaptation plan, and
engaging communities through health education (Table 3.6). Each solution is categorized by its nature—
ranging from direct investment and policy reforms to comprehensive programs that combine
institutional strengthening with other approaches. This succinct overview encapsulates the strategic
direction proposed f ’ h h h h h h
indicating a pathway towards resilience and sustainable development.
Table 3.6 Summary of Assessment of Proposed Solutions for CAR's Health Sector
Solution Label Nature Key Benefits Feasibility
Resilient Healthcare Investment Enhances healthcare access and reduces Medium
Infrastructure disruptions due to climate events.
Capacity Building and Human Program Improves healthcare delivery and increases High
Resources Development capacity to address climate-related health
challenges.
Public Health Interventions and Program Improves public health and reduces the incidence High
Disease Control of communicable diseases.
National Health Adaptation Plan Policy Reform and Provides a strategic framework for health sector Medium
Institutional adaptation to climate change.
Strengthening
Community Engagement and Program Enhances health literacy and community Medium
Health Education resilience to climate-induced health risks.
3.2.4. Physical Capital: Urban Development, Transport, and Energy
’ h encompassing transport, urban development, and energy infrastructure, is
characterized by widespread inefficiencies and weaknesses. The transport sector, vital for connectivity
and access to markets, is plagued by dilapidated roads, with many becoming impassable during the
rainy season. This not only isolates communities but also hampers economic activities and limits access
to essential services. Urban development in CAR faces challenges of rapid, unplanned urbanization,
inadequate housing, and poor sanitation, which are compounded by the effects of climate change, such
as increased flooding and erosion. These conditions highlight the need for sustainable urban planning
and investment in resilient infrastructure. The energy sector is marked by extremely low electrification
rates and heavy reliance on biomass for energy, contributing to deforestation and pollution. The lack of
reliable and affordable energy sources stifles economic development and hinders improvements in
living standards. Together, these issues in the transport, urban development, and energy sectors
illustrate the critical infrastructure gaps that must be addressed to support sustainable development
and climate resilience in CAR.
The vicious cycle in CAR, characterized by underdevelopment, climate vulnerability, and fragility, is
vividly illustrated through the challenges facing its natural, human, and physical capital sectors. To
break this cycle and foster a virtuous one, a holistic and integrated approach that addresses these
sectoral challenges head- ’ h
towards sustainable development and resilience.
Cities, Fragility and Climate
SECTOR PROFILE
CAR faces critical challenges in urban development amidst its economic and socio-political context.
Urban areas, while acting as safe havens offering safety and opportunities, are hindered by unplanned
urbanization, effects of past conflicts, governance deficits, and climate change.62 Urban centers are
62 World Bank. 2022. Central African Republic: Leveraging cities to build resilience and re-establish the social contract; United States Institution of Peace
(2022). As security returns, Central Africans await the State. Link; World Bank (2019). CAR Country Partnership Framework. Link.; World Bank (2021).
Climate Risk Country Profile: Central African Republic.; REACH. 2020. Central African Republic Flood and Susceptibility Risk. Link.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
vital for state presence and basic service delivery, particularly in fragile contexts. However, their growth
and sustainability are compromised by several factors, including congestion, inadequate housing, and
climate-induced risks like flooding and extreme heat. Th h
b b h
q 63
Rapid urban growth and economic concentration in CAR have not yet translated into substantial
agglomeration benefits. The country is experiencing rapid urbanization, with about 43% of its population
living in urban areas—a figure projected to rise to 60% by 2050.64 Economic development is spatially
highly concentrated - Bangui alone represents 70 percent.65 Provision of basic services is also not
keeping up with urban growth, exacerbating b This provision is
further impaired during disasters and there is a heightened risk of water-borne diseases. To transform
these cities into true spaces of opportunity, there is an imperative for strategic, inclusive urbanization
efforts that enhance resilience, improve urban planning, and manage resources effectively.
CLIMATE-RELATED RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Urban areas in CAR are particularly vulnerable to climate-related risks, exacerbating the challenges in
urban development. Recent decades have seen disruptive disaster events, such as the floods in 2019
affecting over 100,000 people and causing substantial damage and displacement. 66 Urban areas and
their inhabitants, especially the poorest and most vulnerable, bear the brunt of these climate impacts.
% h b h 67 b
h h – 9% h 7 %
% j % h h b
b b h
b h Th
b b b highlights the
urgent need for effective disaster risk management and climate adaptation strategies.
The interaction between urban development and climate change presents a complex web of challenges
and opportunities for CAR's urban areas. Cities face multiple climate-related hazards, including floods,
erosion, wildfires, extreme heat, storms, and strong winds. Deforestation and loss of vegetation cover,
particularly in urban and peri-urban areas, aggravate the impact of heatwaves, floods, and erosion, with
potential further feedback loops with forest fires and wind gusts and compounding negative effects on
air pollution.68 b j b b
This environmental degradation, along with improper land use and
infrastructure maintenance, contributes to increased runoff and flash floods risk, underscoring the
need for integrated urban planning and green development initiatives to enhance urban resilience 69
MENU FOR ACTION
Institutional reforms and capacity building are essential to enhance urban governance, planning, and
service delivery. 80 Strengthening the legal and institutional frameworks for integrated urban and spatial
planning – including effective provision of basic services for all, improving land administration systems
to address land conflicts, and enhancing municipal finance and governance capacities are imperative.
Implementing strategic adaptation plans, improving data and information management for climate-
63 Fathom flood data, updated in March 2024, was used for current and future climate was analyzed for 2020 (baseline), 2050, and 2100 and for different
climate and socio-economic scenarios (SSP1RCP2.6, SSP2RCP4.5, SSP3RCP7.0, and SSP5RCP8.5). The impacts were projected for four urban areas
(Bambari, Birao, Bangui, Berberati) and in terms of exposed critical infrastructure assets, built-up area and population.
64 Data in this section is from the World Bank databank on Population estimates and projections. Central African Republic,
https://databank.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?Id=fdaa1724&populartype=series&Report_Name=Population
65 The GDP share of Bangui was calculated using Ghosh et al. 2010. Shedding light on the global distribution of economic activity. The Open Geography
Journal (3), 148-16. Link. The dataset in tif format was polygonized and clipped to the Bangui city boundaries. This dataset is top down and uses nightlights
to approximate GDP values. As the share of population in Bangui (1.45 million) is high out of the total population in the country (6.1 million) and the second
biggest city hosts only less than 150,000 people, the nightlights can provide a reasonable approximation and hence no other variables were used to
approximate GDP. The estimates were also validated with national institutions such as ICASEES to ensure that this could represent a reasonable
approximation.
66 Central African Republic Government. 2009. Urban flooding in Bangui, Central African Republic – Joint Needs Assessment to assess and mitigate the
impacts of recurrent flooding.
67 Rain and river flooding combined, flood risk zones with a minimum depth of 15 cm; World Bank. 2022. City Resilience Programs City Scans based on
Fathom-GlobalV3 Flood Hazard and exposure datasets; A high proportion of urban residents are seen as living in slums conditions in CAR and this share
has consistently and increasingly been higher than in other comparator countries in Sub-Sahara Africa. World Bank. 2022. World Development indicators.
68 Wind gusts have affected more than 20,000 people in CAR as of 2022 and has particularly damages housing (National DRM Plan SNRRC 2022).
Anecdotal evidence from Red Cross situation maps shows that often wind gusts are occurring in similar areas where wildfires are also happening.
69 World Bank. 2023. Project PROVIR: technical mission report on erosion in Berberati. (internal report, unpublished).
80 World Bank. 2022. Central African Republic: Leveraging cities
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
resilient planning, and fostering community participation in urban development processes can
collectively bolster CAR's urban resilience and sustainability.
Incentives for sustainable urban development practices can promote resilient and inclusive growth in
urban areas.81 Programs to contain urban sprawl and incentivize development in urban areas less
prone to disaster risks are important. Policy incentives and technical assistance for adopting green
urban development practices, such as sustainable forestry in urban and peri-urban areas, cleaner
cooking, power and urban mobility and local resilience measures can encourage more resilient urban
landscapes. This can be supported by small interventions engaging communities in cities through
inclusive planning and implementation of activities. In addition, it is essential to foster jobs in green
and resilient development, including artisans, while furthering economic diversification.
Investment in resilient urban infrastructure and green development is crucial for CAR to address its
urban challenges and capitalize on the opportunities for sustainable growth.82 Enhancing the resilience
of urban infrastructure to withstand climate-related impacts, developing sustainable energy and
transport, and enhancing access to quality basic services for all, and tackling waste management are
key priorities. The SEACAP for Bangui, focused on creating a sustainable, green, and climate-resilient
city, exemplifies such strategic initiatives. Expanding these efforts to other urban areas, integrating
local actions into national climate strategies and furthering fast-tracked implementation of measures
for strengthening and upgrading infrastructure for resilience are vital steps forward. Infrastructure
requiring upgrading encompasses a wide range of assets including transport networks, public buildings
and areas, water and sanitation assets, or early warning and information systems, and prioritization of
their upgrading would have to be based on tailored vulnerability and technical studies.
This analysis of the urban sector83 has highlighted the major challenges and opportunities and
solutions supported by existing frameworks in the country to address those issues. Table 3.7 provides
a summary of proposed solutions – aligned with key existing strategic frameworks in CAR presented in
more detail in Chapter 2 - and potential benefits in terms of intertwined challenges of urbanization and
climate change in CAR. It highlights the importance of strategic investments, incentives, and
institutional reforms to foster sustainable, resilient, and inclusive urban development, ensuring that
urban areas can truly serve as safe havens and engines of economic growth and social progress.
Table 3.7: Summary of Assessment of Proposed Solutions for CAR's Urban and DRM Sector
Solution Nature Key Benefits Feasi Reference to Strategic Plans
bility
Integrated Policy & Enhances urban resilience, High Urban plans (e.g., Bangui SEACAP), NDP
Urban Planning Planning service delivery efficiency,
for Climate climate adaptation and mitigates
Adaptation urban sprawl.
Climate- Investment Protects assets, ensures service High National Adaptation Strategy and Plan 2023-2027,
Resilient continuity, and contributes to National DRM Strategy (SNRRC), NDP
Infrastructure climate resilience (assets
Development includes infrastructure such as
urban drainage, roads but also
early warning and information
systems), as well as urban
nature-based solutions
Capacity Capacity Enhances disaster response and High National DRM Strategy (SNRRC) 2023-2027, NDP
Building and Building urban risk management
Resources for capabilities.
DRM
Community Program Ensures equitable access to High National gender and climate strategy, urban plans,
Engagement urban benefits, fosters NAP
and Equity community-led resilience.
Water and Investment Improves public health and living Medi National Water Plan 2020-2030, NAP, NDC
Sanitation conditions, promotes water um
Expansion sustainability.
Economic Program Creates employment, supports Medi New national development and recovery plan
Diversification economic resilience, and um (NDP), urban plans
promotes sustainable practices.
Sustainable Investment Improves accessibility to safe, Medi National Plan for Sustainable Energy, NDP, NDC
and Resilient reliable, and green modes for um
Mobility and urban mobility and power.
Energy
81 World Bank. 2022. Central African Republic: Leveraging cities
82 World Bank. 2022. Central African Republic: Leveraging cities
83 Based on details and insights from the background paper on the urban sector deep dive prepared for the CCDR.
55
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Integrated Program Supports effective Medi National Spatial Planning scheme, NDC
Spatial decentralization with stronger um
Planning municipal capacities and
functional system of cities.
Solid Waste Investment Improves public health, urban Low Water and Sanitation Master Plan, Hygiene Code,
Management cleanliness, and environmental SEACAP, NDP
Improvements sustainability.
Land Policy & Reduces disputes, improves Low Land code, Housing/urban code, NDC
Administration Planning planning, supports sustainable
and Housing land use.
Reform
Transport and Climate
SECTOR PROFILE
The Central African Republic's transport infrastructure, critical for economic development and
connectivity, faces significant challenges exacerbated by climate change. The country's transport
system, heavily reliant on its road network, is in a deteriorated state, with 87% of roads and bridges in
poor condition due to lack of maintenance, the unpaved nature of roads (97%), and the overload of
major regional corridors. The rainy season renders many national, regional, and rural roads
inaccessible, isolating cities, villages, and communities. This physical isolation contributes to
infrastructure damage, such as culverts heaving and roads collapsing, further aggravated by flooding-
related events expected to become more extreme with climate change.
Transportation via waterways also presents challenges, particularly with the seasonal navigability of
the Ubangi River and the continuous silting up due to increasing erosion. Climate change is anticipated
to significantly affect both road and waterway infrastructure in CAR through floods and extreme weather
events, highlighting the urgent need for resilient planning and maintenance strategies. The lack of
resilience planning in the construction and maintenance of the transport network, coupled with
insufficient financial resources allocated to road maintenance, underscores the sector's vulnerability.
CLIMATE-RELATED RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES
CAR's transport infrastructure and services are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change,
including increased frequency of floods and high temperatures. Heavy rainfall can lead to flooding of
roads and bridges, making navigation impossible on waterways, while high temperatures can cause
roads and bridges to crack and deteriorate rapidly. Climate change is expected to lead to more frequent
disruptions in the movement of people and goods, reducing economic productivity and exacerbating
poverty. This vulnerability necessitates a comprehensive approach to adapt the transport sector to the
changing climate, incorporating climate data and risks into planning and maintenance work.
Strategic responses to climate risks offer opportunities to enhance the resilience of the transport sector
and support sustainable development. The recent validation of the 2035 national road maintenance
strategy and the development of a transport adaptation strategy underscore CAR's commitment to
adapting its transport sector to climate change. These strategies aim to increase the resilience of
transport infrastructure, prevent the consequences of flooding, and enhance the resilience of
communities reliant on the transport network for access to employment and basic services.
MENU FOR ACTION
Accelerating the development of multimodal transport networks and adopting climate-smart
maintenance strategies are essential for a resilient transport sector in CAR. Investments in waterways,
promoting a modal shift to waterway-based transport, and paving more roads to climate-resilient
standards can increase the sector's resilience. Efforts should focus on the green rehabilitation of port
infrastructure, improved waterway maintenance, and consideration of the potential contribution of the
rail sector to a holistic approach to transport challenges.
Significant reforms and continuous massive investment are required to meet climate resilience
standards and promote the integration of transport modes. Developing and adopting a Green and
Resilient Ports and Waterways Development Strategy and Master Plan, improved urban planning and
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
transport systems with investment prioritization, and financed climate-resilient construction are crucial.
Building resilient transport infrastructure, rehabilitating and upgrading roads to climate-resilient design
standards, and strengthening institutional capacity will ensure market and social services connectivity
and support rapid urbanization.
Enhancing the resilience of urban transport infrastructure and implementing climate resilience
measures are paramount. Urban areas in CAR rely on outdated transportation systems vulnerable to
climate-related disruptions. Upgrading infrastructure, transitioning to more environmentally friendly
means of transportation, and exploring financial mechanisms for specific maintenance programs to
maintain the physical resilience of infrastructure are essential steps towards a more resilient transport
sector in CAR.
This synthesis outlines a strategic framework to enhance resilience and sustainability in the face of
climate change. It emphasizes the need for strategic investments, policy reforms, and capacity building
to tackle the sector's climate-related challenges. Table 3.8 offers a clear overview of solutions
prioritizing both development and climate benefits, detailing the nature, key benefits, and feasibility of
each intervention. These interventions range from policy reforms and infrastructure investments to
programmatic initiatives, all designed to bolster the sector's resilience and sustainability. The feasibility
assessments reflect CAR's realities, highlighting the importance of strategic planning, funding, and
collaborative efforts for effective implementation.
Table 3.8 Summary of Assessment of Proposed Solutions for CAR's Transport Sector
Solution Nature Key Benefits Feasibility
Climate-Resilient Road Policy & Planning Enhances durability and connectivity of roads; reduces Medium
Maintenance vulnerability to climate impacts.
Multimodal Transport Investment Boosts efficiency and access; promotes cleaner High
Networks transport modes.
Green Port Infrastructure Investment Increases port efficiency and capacity; contributes to Medium
low-carbon development.
Urban Transport Program Improves urban mobility and air quality; reduces High
Improvement transport emissions.
Waterways Investment Investment Supports economic activities; offers a cleaner transport Medium
alternative.
Climate-Resilient Policy & Planning Ensures long-term infrastructure sustainability; Medium to
Infrastructure Design addresses direct climate change impacts. High
Financial Mechanisms for Policy & Maintains infrastructure resilience; supports continuous High
Maintenance Investment economic activity.
Energy and Climate
SECTOR PROFILE
CAR's energy sector, foundational for its development, contends with profound challenges, including
an electricity access rate of merely 15.7%, with urban areas slightly better at 34.7% and rural areas at
a stark 1.6%. This stark disparity underscores the urgency of addressing infrastructural inadequacies
and expanding access in both urban and rural areas. The reliance on traditional biomass for over 90%
of the population and the import of diesel for electricity generation underline the sector's sustainability
challenges. However, the country's significant renewable energy potential, particularly in solar and
hydropower, with average solar irradiation of about 5 kWh/m²/day, offers a pathway to transform the
’ b b h ’
vulnerability to climate variability, especially in hydroelectric power, highlights the need for resilience
and low-carbon development strategies.
FRAMEWORKS
The energy sector in CAR is currently shaped by several foundational frameworks, including the 2013
National Energy Policy, which outlines a vision for sustainable and accessible energy. The Electricity
’ h h h h
b Th ’ b
by institutions such as the Electricity Sector Regulatory Agency (ARSEC) and the Rural Electrification
Agency, tasked with regulatory oversight and promoting rural electrification. These frameworks, coupled
with the recognition of the private sector's critical role in driving renewable energy advancements—
57
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
aiming to increase renewable share in the energy mix—set the stage for sector reforms and sustainable
development initiatives.
SOLUTIONS
To address the outlined challenges and capitalize on opportunities, a suite of strategic interventions is
proposed, focusing on on-grid renewable energy expansion, grid expansion and modernization, policy
and regulatory strengthening, capacity building, electrification through mini-grids and off-grid solutions,
energy efficiency, cleaner cooking solutions, and private sector engagement. These measures aim to
’ b h b h
development goals and climate commitments (Table 3.9). To encapsulate these strategic measures
succinctly, the following streamlined summary table presents key interventions designed to enhance
the energy sector's resilience and sustainability in CAR. Each solution is categorized by its nature,
highlighting the expected benefits and feasibility, offering stakeholders a clear overview for informed
decision-making and planning. This comprehensive approach underscores CAR's commitment to
transforming its energy sector into a sustainable and efficient model, mindful of both environmental
responsibilities and the imperative for socio-economic development.
Table 3.9 Summary of Assessment of Proposed Solutions for CAR's Energy Sector
Solution Label Nature Key Benefits Feasibility
Renewable Energy Expansion and Investment & Enhances energy security, supports economic growth, High
regional electricity trade Program creates jobs, reduces emissions.
Grid Reinforcement and Investment Improves reliability, quality of service and financial Medium
Modernization performance of utility, supports renewables
integration
Policy and Regulatory Framework Policy Reform Encourages investments, promotes efficiency. High
Strengthening
Capacity Building for Energy Institutional Enhances governance, project efficiency. Medium
Sector Management Strengthening
Electrification Through Mini-Grids Investment & Increases access, supports development, creates High
and Off-Grid Solutions Program jobs, reduces carbon footprint.
Energy Efficiency in Buildings and Policy Reform & Lowers consumption and costs, reduces emissions. Medium to
Industries Investment High
Cleaner Cooking Solutions Program Improves health, reduces deforestation and Medium
emissions.
Private Sector Engagement in Program Drives growth, fosters innovation, promotes cleaner High
Renewable Energy tech.
3.2.5. Social Dimensions of Climate Change and the Risk of Conflicts
CAR faces unique challenges due to climate change, disproportionately affecting marginalized groups
such as women, youth, indigenous peoples, and internally displaced persons (IDPs). These
vulnerabilities stem from social and economic inequities, exacerbated by climate-induced risks like
floods and droughts. In response, CAR has developed national strategies, particularly the National
Strategy on Gender and Climate Change (2023-2030), recognizing the importance of integrating gender
as a cross-cutting issue in sustainable development and climate adaptation efforts. This strategy not
only identifies the specific challenges faced by vulnerable groups but also positions them as key agents
of change in addressing climate vulnerabilities, underlining a comprehensive approach towards
sustainable development and resilience building. The NDP also emphasizes the need for including
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
vulnerable groups in climate actions and to protect them against the negative impacts of climate
change.
Another vulnerable group is people with disabilities. Due to their immobility, they are vulnerable to
adverse effects in case of floodings and displacement. They also have less access to resources and
water and sanitation. For example, a study by Handicap International in 2022 showed that 51 percent
of people with handicap have difficulties in accessing clean water, due mainly to the distance, and 74%
of them does not know how to read and write.
Due to their close interlinkages with the land and natural resources, Indigenous Peoples are particularly
vulnerable to climate change. Their marginalization and the stigma and discrimination they encounter,
however, often excludes them from services and voice in decision making for a. The national strategy
on gender and climate change recognizes their important role in the conservation of forestry and the
government has, as the only African country, signed and ratified in 2010 the ILO 169 Convention on
the rights of indigenous Peoples. However, a law on the rights of indigenous peoples is yet to be
developed.
A growing number of extreme weather events contribute to increasing displacement in CAR. In 2019,
flooding along the Ubangi River displaced more than 100 000 people. Climate-related displacement
comes in addition to substantial conflict-related displacement, placing a high burden on vulnerable
communities, Internal displacement has created and shaped tensions over distribution and access to
resources such as water and land. OCHA estimates that 751 000 people have sought protection in
neighboring countries, most notably DRC, Cameroon, and Chad and 512,000 are internally displaced.
People fleeing conflicts in Chad and Sudan and settling in CAR, adds to the complexity and the
competition over natural resources. To avoid the risk that the movement of people are causing
increased tensions it is important to work with both IDPs and host communities in an integrated manner
and to ensure equal access to social services, job opportunities and adequate infrastructure both in
rural and urban areas.
Social cohesion and trust:88 has deteriorated and the resilience of communities have been weakened
due to the recurrent cycle of violence. Years of persistent instability, displacement and conflict have
left communities fractured and divided. Tensions between and within communities, and between
communities and local authorities tend to be high. making it more difficult for government, private
sector and local authorities to come together to address shared social and environmental challenges.
Pastoral ecosystems in the Sahel and Central Africa cross international borders. The impacts of climate
change in the wider region contributes to altering transhumance patterns, increasing both the volume,
and spread of transhumance into CAR. This contributes to the strain on livelihoods and, indirectly,
conflict dynamics in CAR. In the Lake Chad region, increasing droughts push traditional Sudano-
Sahelian transhumance further into the south of CAR, as the area provides relatively rich grazing and
greater access to fresh water. Observers suggest transhumance patterns are also altering with
changing seasons, and herders are moving south earlier, reaching land used to farm at harvest time
and increasing competition. Herders from Niger and Nigeria have also begun travelling into CAR. High
levels of insecurity in CAR, particularly in the north and north-east, are also pushing pastoralists away
from traditional routes. Simultaneously, farmers have started to move into areas previously used for
trans-humane grazing due to diminishing yields from their traditional fields. Transhumance, however,
also contributes to the economy. Some estimates suggest that the cattle sector represented around
% h ’ h h
crisis.89 Solutions that ensure the demarcation of corridors, access to water wholes for both herders
and farmers as well as functioning mediation structures are key to ensure that increased movement of
herders across CAR does ’
In addressing these challenges, CAR could emphasize solutions that combine investments, policy
reforms, and institutional strengthening. Initiatives. These could include promoting locally-led climate
action, empowering marginalized groups through gender-responsive policies, and leveraging
88 According to the World Bank, h b h ‘h ’ ‘ ’ h h ty
(bonding), connecting individuals across distinct communities (bridging) and connecting citizens to people or structures in a position of power (linking).
89 NORAD
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
community knowledge for resilience building are pivotal (Table 3.10). These strategies aim to empower
communities, ensure equitable access to resources, and integrate indigenous knowledge into
adaptation measures. However, their feasibility varies, with some requiring substantial external support
and coordination, while others depend on the political will and societal support within CAR. Despite
these challenges, these initiatives hold the potential to not only mitigate the impacts of climate change
but also to foster sustainable development, enhance social equity, and improve climate resilience,
provided they are effectively implemented and supported both locally and internationally.
The NDP highlights the need to support the decentralization sector and to support the resilience of
communities. The World Bank financed E KPENGBA project, which is a community driven development
project, fits well into this vision. The project aims to support local authorities to deliver local service
delivery, improve access to basic socio-economic climate adaptive infrastructure, and provide socio-
economic support to the reintegration of ex-combatants. Local development plans, informed by
participative climate diagnostics, will be developed with the support of the project. Regarding
transhumance, solutions that ensure the demarcation of corridors, access to water wholes for both
herders and farmers as well as functioning mediation structures are key to ensure that increased
movement of herders across CAR does ’ Th E
KPENGBA project includes investments in infrastructure related to transhumance, and the EU is having
a regional project to address tensions related to competition over land and water between farmers and
herders whilst also protecting national parks.
It is essential that a conflict lens is applied to all interventions and when developing policies and
strategies. As emphasized in the World Bank FCV strategy, climate change can intensify existing
tensions, grievances, and inequalities. As shown in the sections above climate change is likely to reduce
agriculture productivity, increase competition over natural resources such as land and water and lead
to increased displacement. In turn, this can fuel existing FCV dynamics, especially when social
exclusion, weak governance, a lack of basic services, and other contextual factors are present. It is also
important, as shown in the World Bank report Defueling Conflict: Environment and Natural Resource
Management as a Pathway to Peace that a holistic approach is taken as interventions that are aimed
to support one group can easily backfire if the context and effects on different groups are not properly
analyzed.
Table 3.10 Social Dimensions- Proposed Solutions
Solution Nature Key Benefits Feasibility
Promoting Locally-Led Climate Program Empowers communities, identifies Moderate to high
Action sustainable adaptation measures
Empowering Marginalized Policy Reform Increases equity, improves livelihoods High
Groups Through Gender-
Responsive Policies
Leveraging Community Institutional Preserves cultural heritage, promotes Low
Knowledge for Resilience Strengthening ecological resilience
Building
Resource Allocation for Climate Investment Enhances infrastructure, secures food and Variable
Actions water
Institutional Strengthening and Institutional Improves governance, ensures sustainable High
Inclusive Decision-Making Strengthening adaptation
Strengthen the surveillance, Institutional Strengthen government control over Medium
regulation and control of the Strengthening transhumance movements in the country
transhumance corridors
Investing in infrastructure Program and Demarcation of transhumance corridors, Medium to high
related to transhumance investments waterholes and local committees to
mediate conflicts between herders and
farmers
Develop a law on the right for Law and policy Ensure indigenous peoples collective rights Medium
indigenous peoples reforms to land and forest
Note: The two measures related to strengthening the surveillance, regulation and control of the transhumance corridors and investing in infrastructure
in relation to transhumance must be addressed under the measure climate resilience in pastoral systems identified in the agriculture assessment and
its list of solutions.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
3.2.6. Private sector, Climate, Development and Fragility
The intersection of development, fragility, and climate change presents a complex challenge for various
sectors of the CAR economy, where the private sector faces significant hurdles such as insecurity,
fragility, high financing costs, inadequate infrastructure, skill gaps, and regulatory barriers. These
obstacles are exacerbated by the government's limited capacity for public investment due to low levels
of domestic revenue mobilization. However, the private sector is recognized as a key player in navigating
this landscape, holding the potential to drive innovation and sustainable financing across crucial
sectors such as energy, financial services, agribusiness, and construction.
These complexities present challenges and opportunities for private sector operations in the face of
climate pressures, natural resource competition, armed group violence, cross-border spillovers, and
the rising number of the internally displaced persons and refugee population. Private sector
participation can provide opportunities by transforming local livelihoods, driving key export sectors,
building skills and capacity, while also implementing measures to ensure that operations do not
unintentionally worsen conflicts or contribute to their root causes. These challenges require a cohesive
approach. An integrated approach that includes policy reforms, investments, and institutional
strengthening to foster an enabling environment that supports private sector engagement and
resilience will be crucial to addressing identified challenges.
This is particularly salient in industries where the private sector emerges as a pivotal force in the
evolution environment, biodiversity, and climate, such as in the forestry and agricultural value chains.
These sectors predominantly operate at the initial stage of transformation, not only limiting their export
potential but also contributing to land and forest degradation. Transitioning these value chains to higher
stages of transformation is imperative for enhancing their export competitiveness, adding value, and
thus reducing their environmental impact. Short of such increased competitiveness, these sectors can
only grow in volumetric fashion through more deforestation or larger areas of cultivated land. The
advancement of these sectors hinges on the dissemination of knowledge and skills pertinent to efficient
wood and agricultural processing techniques. Improving the investment climate, facilitating access to
trade—including the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)—and fostering
market linkages with global investors are critical steps. Such measures can elevate productivity,
augment product quality, alleviate poverty among sector participants, and encourage the adoption of
climate-smart, sustainable practices. These practices are essential for addressing climate vulnerability
within the wood and agricultural value chains and for promoting biodiversity conservation.
Compounding these challenges is the limited access to finance for firms, which hampers both
conventional and green, resilient investments. With a residual fraction of loans allocated to micro, small
and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in Central African Republic, despite their constituting 98 percent of
businesses, the financial sector's inefficiencies become apparent. These include an underdeveloped
banking sector, inadequate credit infrastructure, and poor contract enforcement. The size and
informality of MSMEs, coupled with high collateral requirements, further impede their financial access.
While larger entities may secure short-term loans for immediate needs, long-term investment financing
remains scarce. The development of supply chain finance products, such as factoring and leasing, could
mitigate these financial barriers. Additionally, initiatives like partial credit guarantees and co-financing
mechanisms could catalyze value chain expansion, thereby fostering economic growth. Such financial
innovations could also enable firms to address climate change more effectively, enhance productivity,
and reduce the pressure on natural resources, biodiversity, and the environment.
The country stands to gain significantly from carbon finance if investments are channeled effectively
towards greening the wood and agriculture value chains. By adopting sustainable practices, these
sectors can help generate carbon credits, which can be sold on international markets, providing a new
revenue stream for both firms and the government. This influx of capital can be reinvested into further
environmental initiatives, technological advancements, and capacity building, creating a virtuous cycle
of development and environmental stewardship. For firms, this represents an opportunity to offset
operational costs associated with sustainable transformations and to gain a competitive edge in
increasingly eco-conscious global markets. For the government, it offers a fiscal tool to incentivize
sustainable practices, potentially leading to reduced carbon emissions and enhanced compliance with
international environmental agreements. Moreover, the global public good benefits from such
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
initiatives, as they contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gases, preservation of biodiversity, and
mitigation of climate change impacts, aligning the Central African Republic's development objectives
with global sustainability goals.
To capture the potential opportunities for leveraging the private sector in climate adaptation and
sustainable development, Table 3.11 provides an overview of the opportunities and strategic initiatives
that can be implemented. Each initiative is classified using the following criteria: type of instrument,
key benefits, and feasibility, highlighting the multifaceted role of the private sector in contributing to
resilient and sustainable development pathways in a context marked by fragility and impacts from
climate change.
Table 3.11 Opportunities for leveraging the private sector in climate adaptation
Solution Type of Instrument Key Benefits Feasibility
On-grid and Off-grid Investment & Enhances energy access, supports economic activities, Medium
Solar Solutions Program promotes clean energy, potentially lowers the cost of
electricity
Digital Financial Policy Reform & Improves financial inclusion, supports delivery of social Medium
Services Institutional protection payments, improves resilience to climate shocks
Strengthening
Climate-Smart Investment, Policy Boosts value chains efficiency and evolution towards 2nd or Low-to-Medium
Forestry and Reform, Institutional 3rd transformation, to increase competitiveness and reduce
Agriculture Value Strengthening & environmental impact; increases food security; enhances
Chains Program wood production, agricultural and land productivity;
reduces emissions; supports the resilience of wood and
agricultural workers; and protects natural habitats.
Resilient Investment & Policy Supports sustainable urbanization, reduces carbon Low-to-medium
Infrastructure and Reform footprint, ensures efficient use of resources, and lowers
Green Buildings utility bills for buildings
Support for Program & Promotes job creation, economic stability, self-reliance Medium-high
Entrepreneurs and Institutional among vulnerable populations and supports indirect
SMEs in Fragile Strengthening climate benefits
Context
Note: Based on details and insights from the background paper on the private sector deep dive prepared for the CCDR. A streamlined FCV table
highlights, the summary fragility factors, opportunities and recommendations for leveraging the private sector in climate adaptation.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
4. Macro and Distributional Impacts
4.1. Key Takeaways
The CAR has struggled with economic stagnation since 2020 and has almost no fiscal space due to
very low tax mobilization capacities; as a result, it is unable to invest in basic infrastructure to relaunch
economic growth, provide essential public services to address growing social needs. In addition,
political and administrative capacity to design, adopt, and implement economic reforms necessary for
a relaunch of economic growth is extremely weak. These macro-fiscal vulnerabilities have been
exacerbated by a series of exogenous shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, renewed insecurity
and violence in 2021, economic spillovers of the Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and chronic fuel
shortages.
In such a deprived context, CAR must pursue bold and narrowly prioritized macro-fiscal reforms to
escape the fragility trap by boosting growth and expanding its fiscal space. According to the recent
Country Economic Memorandum (CEM, World Bank, 2022)90 and the ongoing National Development
Plan (NDP) for 2024-2028, the necessary reforms to transition from fragility to accelerated and
inclusive growth are based on three main pillars: (i) reorienting the policy landscape towards
development and restoring the social contract; (ii) promoting long-term growth, accelerating human
capital formation, and attracting private investment; and (iii) strengthening trade to accelerate growth,
move away from fragility, and promote market-based competition to reduce the scope for rent-seeking.
It seems also critical to enhance budget execution, to modernize the tax administration and to boost
the formalization and expansion of the private sector.91
The implementation of bold macro-fiscal reforms is expected to at largely mitigate the socio-economic
costs associated with climate change. In the specific context of CAR, prioritizing development
imperatives appears to be the best strategy to combat the potentially detrimental impacts of climate
change, especially for poorer populations who are particularly dependent on rain-fed agriculture.
The implementation of these reforms is essential for debt sustainability, which is crucial for leveraging
financing options for development priorities and climate adaptations. Debt sustainability largely relies
on the authorities' ability to restore economic growth potential, prioritize, and secure grant financing for
essential spending and development projects, and extend the profile of domestic debt.
Investments in targeted climate adaptation measures alongside necessary reforms could lead to
economic gains, but tight fiscal constraints, lack of access to market financing, and the limited climate
financing options necessitate prioritizing among several valuable options. Even with increased fiscal
space, CAR will need to adopt a 'no-regret' policy that ensures cost-effective investments regardless of
climate uncertainties. This includes, among other measures, better access to water, sanitation, and
hygiene (WASH) for the population, the expansion of renewable energy provision, the maintenance of
key network infrastructures, and urban construction outside of historical floodplains. Moreover,
establishing fiscal buffers and insurance mechanisms to enhance the nation's resilience to climate
impacts appears imperative.
90 World Bank Group. 2022. From Fragility to Inclusive Growth: A country Economic Memorandum for the Central African Republic. World Bank Group,
Washington, D.C.
91 The ongoing Public Finance Review (PFR, P500483) will elaborate on these key critical aspects.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Figure 4.1: Trajectories of GDP per Capita (in 2020 US$) and Poverty Headcount (Percentage of
Population) under the BAU and ASP Scenarios
1400
GDP per capita, 2020
1200
1000
800
US$
600
400
200
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Buisness as Usual Aspirational
Source: CCDR team construction.
Table 4.1: Estimated macro-poverty costs (in level) of climate uncertainties by 2050
BAU ASP ASP CR 2050
Current BAU 2050 climate ASP 2050 climate
2050 2050 climate
GDP per-capita 654 (wet/warm) 1,404 (wet/warm) 1,427 (wet/warm)
434 665 1,404
(US $) 613 (hot/dry) 1,331 (hot/dry) 1,358 (hot/dry)
National poverty 49.7 (wet/warm) 14.2 (wet/warm) 13.5 (wet/warm)
68.8 49.2 14.4
headcount (Percent) 53.6 (hot/dry) 17.5 (hot/dry) 16 (hot/dry)
Source: CCDR team construction.
Note: “ ” “ ” - “ ” Th
uncertainties will be detail in Section 4.3.
4.2. Introduction
Th h h b ’ vulnerabilities and
developmental challenges. The focus is on understanding how targeted climate adaptation investments
can not only mitigate the adverse effects of climate change but also unlock socio-economic benefits by
the year 2050. The primary objective of this work is to provide a detailed assessment of the economic
impacts of climate change, propose adaptation measures, and explore their effectiveness in enhancing
economic resilience and growth in CAR. The section introduces the complexities of integrating climate
change adaptation into national development planning, emphasizing the need for a strategic and
informed approach to policymaking in a context of high economic fragility and environmental exposure.
As outlined in Chapters 1, 2, and 3, CAR finds itself in a precarious state of fragility, exacerbating its
vulnerability to both short-term climate shocks and long-term climate change processes. This situation
highlights the urgent need to prioritize growth and development strategies. These strategies aim to
liberate CAR from the fragility trap, steering it away from highly climate-exposed primary activities and
towards less exposed, job-intensive sectors like manufacturing and construction.
Accordingly, there's a pressing need to enhance domestic revenue mobilization (DRM) and public
financial management (PFM). These measures are critical for addressing the country's social needs
and fostering human, physical, and institutional capital development. Simultaneously, creating an
environment conducive to private sector engagement is essential to mobilize private investment in
climate change adaptation and resilience-building initiatives, which are crucial for long-term
sustainability.
Furthermore, the chapter emphasizes the potential of selected climate adaptation measures derived
from Chapter 3 to yield quick gains and significant socio-economic benefits by 2050. Such measures
include implementing irrigation plans, preserving soil, and promoting the cultivation of heat-tolerant
crops at the local level. Urban infrastructure development is imperative, especially outside historical
64
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
floodplains in major cities like Bangui, Bambari, Berberati, and Birao. The effective maintenance of key
infrastructure like roads, bridge networks, and power plants, and the strengthening of economic and
financial resilience measures are also highlighted. These efforts include building fiscal buffers and
insurance mechanisms to fortify the country's resilience against climate impacts.
4.3. Methods Used and Approach
A sophisticated analytical approach utilizing a Climate Change Macro-Fiscal Model (CC-MFMod)92
alongside micro- h b b h h ’ h 93 This dual-modeling
framework allows for a dynamic assessment of how climate change could impact various sectors of
’ Th h j
responses to a range of climate conditions. Specifically, the CC-MFMod evaluates potential shifts in
economic productivity, labor market dynamics, and infrastructural resilience under different climate
scenarios. Key impact channels analyzed include the direct effects of temperature increases and erratic
rainfall on agricultural productivity, the indirect effects of heat exposure on health, and the vulnerability
of physical infrastructure to extreme weather events like floods and storms. This methodological
approach aims to provide a comprehensive vi h j ’
varying degrees of climate impact and adaptation responses.
To summarize the modeling approach:
1. As detailed hereafter, two macroeconomic scenarios are considered up to 2050: a baseline
h' h' ‘ ’( ) h'
reforms' (ASP).94 A 'Climate-resilient' variant of the ASP (ASP-CR) is also examined in which CAR
invests in targeted adaptation measures.
2. The analysis includes two future climate conditions: "dry/hot," which is associated with a more
pessimistic future climate scenario, and "wet/warm," which is associated with a less
pessimistic scenario. Of all the climate scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
6 (CMIP6), three were selected to represent future dry/hot conditions and three to represent
wet/warm conditions. They were selected based on their average projections for 2031-2050
(compared to the 1995-2020 historical average) for precipitation and temperature. The three
models showing dry (wet), and hot (warm) conditions are combined to create the dry/hot
(wet/warm) pathway.
3. Six damage channels and one technology adoption are measured and assigned to the CC-
MFMod. These include damage to sectoral productivity (rainfed agriculture and erosion of
crops), labor productivity (heat and health), and capital stock (urban flooding, roads, and
bridges). Technology adoption includes access to WASH services.95
4. Damages are annualized, with the impact of extreme (low- h / “b ”)
events muted in this approach.
5. Climate adaptation measures are modelized to offer at least partial protection against the
damage channels described above, and translate into dedicated reforms and investment in
agriculture, human, and physical capital. The government, households, and the private sector
are assumed to share the investment and operational costs of these adaptation measures.
92 Several CCDRs leverage the CC-MFMod in countries including the G5 Sahel, Cote d'Ivoire, Tunisia, Morocco, and Türkiye, among others. Alternatively,
some CCDRs employ Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models when the analysis requires a multisectoral perspective and when recent Social
Accounting Matrix (SAM) data are available.
93 Based on details and insights from the macro modeling background paper prepared for the CCDR.
94 See the macro modeling paper for more discussion on the macro scenarios.
95 The initial scope of the analysis included the adoption of clean cooking technology. However, it was excluded from the final modeling due to unrealistic
adoption costs, the economic potential of CAR, and the potentially underestimated socio-economic benefits. For an analysis of the net socio-economic and
environmental benefits of the adoption of clean cooking technologies in the fragile context of Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, see Desbureaux, S.,
Colart, L., Stoop, N., Verpoorten, M., Soubeyran, R., Couttenier, M., Shinagawa, N., de la Croix Kembere Mulwahili, J., Musharhamina, C., 2024 [AEARCTR-
0010099]. Electric Cooking and Sustainable Development: Evidence form Eastern D.R. Congo.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
4.4. Main Findings
4.4.1. The Prerequisite of Economic Development
The BAU scenario predicts that climate change will lead to GDP losses between 1.7 and 7.8 percent by
2050 compared to without the impacts of climate change. This reduces the growth rate up to -0.3% per
year, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities in an already volatile and climate-sensitive environment.96 As
shown in Figure 4.2a below, the range of economic impacts depends on the future climate scenarios,
h h “ / ” h ( b ) b h “h / ” h
representing an upper bound. The difference between these paths is largely determined by factors such
as rainfed agriculture productivity, heat stress on the population, and urban flooding.
Due to the lack of structural change, fiscal space, and private investment, most of the adverse impacts
of climate change in the BAU scenario are likely to manifest themselves in the form of lower productivity
of rain-fed agriculture, heat stress among workers, and urban flooding. Without structural changes,
most of the economy will remain highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture. The absence of rainfall
b h b h h “h / ” h
4.0 percent reduction in output by 2050 compared to the absence of climate change. In addition, the
lack of fiscal space limiting productive investment, combined with a lack of alternative private
b h “h / ” h h
in labor productivity could lead to a loss of 2.9 percent of GDP by 2050. This decline in productivity
would be due to the increasing heat stress that both indoor and outdoor workers face, as mechanization
in agriculture is limited and indoor air conditioning is inadequate.97Finally, flood risk to residential and
productive infrastructure in Bangui (and likely other key secondary cities, particularly Bambari,
Berberati, and Birao), highlighted in Chapter 3, would result in a loss of between 0.6 percent
(“ / ” h ) 9 (“h / ” h ) b
Figure 4.2a: Total GDP Impacts (percent) of the Combined “Wet/Warm” and “Hot/Dry” Paths by 2050
under the BAU Scenario
Source: CCDR team construction.
96 As stated by the IPCC (2023, p.12), vulnerability is higher in locations with poverty, governance challenges and limited access to basic services and
resources, violent conflict, and high levels of climate-sensitive livelihoods (e.g., smallholder farmers and pastoralists communities). IPCC, 2023: Summary
for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
97 In addition to the heat stress on the population, communities would also be more profoundly affected by infectious diseases, including malaria, dengue,
waterborne illnesses, and heat-related illnesses. This impact would be particularly pronounced under the "hot/dry" climate path, with an economic
equivalent cost of 0.6 percent of GDP by 2050. However, it's important to recognize that this economic cost does not fully encompass the humanitarian
impacts of these diseases.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Figure 4.2b: Poverty Headcount Impacts (percentage points) of the Combined “Wet/Warm” and
“Hot/Dry” Paths by 2050 under the BAU Scenario
Source: CCDR team construction.
Climate change is poised to undermine societal advancements, potentially elevating poverty levels by
as much as 4.4 percentage points by 2050. This looming threat is captured in Figure 4.2b, which starkly
contrasts the change in poverty rates in the presence of climate change without adaptive strategies
and under the growth path delineated by the business-as-usual scenario. The forecast is bleak under
the dry/hot scenario, where poverty could surge by 2.7 and 5.9 percentage points in urban and rural
areas, respectively. The consistently higher increases in rural areas suggest that climate change will
exacerbate pre-existing territorial inequalities. Also, it indicates that the direct effects of climate change
have a dominant role in pushing vulnerable populations into poverty. These direct effects are, for
instance, the adverse effects of heat stress on outdoor workers' labor productivity and the impact of
h Th “h / ”
a more severe impact on poverty than its wet/warm counterpart, in which the increases in poverty are
b hb h “h / ”
the impacts of climate change only increase over time. At the national level, the effects of climate
change on poverty are expected to almost triple, going from 1.5 to 4.4 percentage points between 2030
h “h / ” Considering the population projections, this implies that 0.6
million of people will be pushed into poverty every year around 2050 because of climate change.
The escalating poverty rates, however, only scratch the surface of the broader crisis. As Climate change
erodes the living standards of the already impoverished, the poverty gap—a measure of the depth of
poverty—is anticipated to widen up to 10 percent under the business-as-usual scenario by 2050. This
gap, indicative of the financial uplift required to bridge the poverty divide, is on an upward trajectory,
underscoring the disproportionate burden shouldered by the poor. Their financial fate is inextricably
linked to the agricultural sector, which is highly susceptible to climate volatility. As a result, these
vulnerable households bear the full brunt of climate change, with their livelihoods —dependent on the
productivity of labor and land—facing the direct and devastating repercussions of adverse weather
conditions.
Protecting the most vulnerable to climate change requires targeted policies directed to households that
are expected to be affected the most. These are expected to be households whose income portfolio
relies on agriculture and who live in areas where heat and precipitation are expected to change the
most. Figure 4.2c shows that the additional people falling into poverty primarily live in rural areas (61-
62 percent) in the country's East (52-65 percent). Almost 9 out of 10 affected individuals will be from
non-IDP households, comprising adults and children younger than six years old (31-35 percent). The
primary earners in these households are typically males (72-73 percent) with no education (67-76
percent). Climate change is expected to disproportionally affect population groups whose share
increases between the wet-warm and the dry-hot scenario. The figure indicates that IDP households,
those living in the East, and those led by unskilled workers are particularly susceptible to
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
disproportionate damage from climate change. This suggests that policies that enhance human capital
and support the IDP population and those targeting undiversified local economies can potentially
mitigate the welfare losses caused by climate change.
Figure 4.2c: Profile of additional poor due to climate change
a. Wet-Warm b. Dry-Hot
Bas
Central & Oubangui, Central &
Region East, 52 Region East, 65
West, 32 16 West, 24
High
Unskilled, Mid Unskilled, Mid skill,
Skill skill, Skill
67 skill, 20 76 16
12
Non IDP, IDP,
IDP Non IDP, 84 IDP, 16
91 9 IDP
w/o
Children children, w/ children, 69 w/o children,
Children w/ children, 65
31 35
Area Urban, 39 Rural, 61 Area Urban, 38 Rural, 62
Gender Male, 72 Female, 28 Gender Male, 73 Female, 27
0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100
Percentage of population by
Percentage of population by characteristic
characteristic
Source: CCDR team construction. Note: The figure shows the marginal distribution of the additional number of poor under each
scenario. East consider the regions of Plateaux, Equator and Yade, while West considers the regions Kagas, Fertit and Haut-
Oubangui. The category children groups households in two groups: households with (w/) at least one household member younger
than six years old and households without it (w/o). The size of IDP population is not pre-defined and determined endogenously by
the evolution of other characteristics.
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Box 4.1 The welfare effect of climate: a deeper look at the impact of extreme weather events
The welfare analysis developed through the CCDR focuses on the impacts of climate change, which is
defined as the slow change in the mean and variance of climate conditions over the coming decades (IPCC,
2023). This approach risks overlooking the role that extreme weather events have on household welfare
today, which are independent of how climate evolves in the next three decades.1 To address this issue, we
leverage well-developed geospatial analysis of current exposure to extreme weather events developed at
the global level by Doan et al. (2023). The authors combine 1km2 gridded data on population, crops and
climate hazards (e.g., heat, drought, flood, and cyclones) to quantify the number of people exposed to
extreme weather events. This approach can help to assess where adaptation investments would be
h h ’ resiliency, even in a scenario without further climate change.
Figure 4.2d. Share of population exposed to an extreme weather event by type of event and region.
Percentage of population affected by a shock
30
20
10
0
1 - Plateaux 2 - Equateur 3 - Yadé 4 - Kagas 5 - Fertit 6 - Oubangui 7 - Bangui
Regions National
Floods Droughts Heat Any
Source: CCDR team construction, based on computations from Doan et al. (2023).
Figure 4.2d above shows that about one-third of people in the CAR are exposed to extreme climate events, with
more than two thirds of the people exposed being also extreme poor (2.15 a day PPP-2017). Droughts are the
most typical extreme event to which people are exposed. The risk of suffering from extreme droughts is particularly
high for Equateur, Yade, and Oubangui, where population exposed is above the national average, which is around
20 percent. This suggests that adaptation measures that prevent households from running out of water for their
consumption and for growing crops are essential in these regions. Although floods affect fewer people on a
national scale than droughts, their effects are highly localized, so exposure is high in some parts of CAR. About
one-third of people in Bangui are exposed to the long shadow that floods cast on poor households, who tend to
rely on negative coping mechanisms in the aftermath of these events. For instance, as recently as 2019, a milder
flood than the one that is being modeled in this analysis affected more than 16 cities in the country, leaving at
least 44,000 people directly affected (IFRC, 2019). Finally, Therefore, measures to limit the effects of heat stress
should be geographically targeted towards Yade, especially as almost one- h h ’
there.
Under the ASP scenario, it is assumed that the adverse effects of climate change are largely mitigated,
h ‘ / ’ h h
the decline in GDP, compared to a decrease of 1.7 percent in the BAU scenario under the optimistic
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
“ / ” h j b 7
h h “h / ” h (F 3a).98
Debt sustainability is significantly more likely under the ASP scenario, where the growth rate meets or
exceeds medium- and long-term projections in the debt sustainability analysis (DSA), thereby freeing
up financing for development priorities.
Mitigation of the adverse impacts of climate change under the ASP scenario is mainly due to structural
transformation, freed fiscal space, and increased private investment, manifest through improved
access to WASH services, higher agricultural productivity, and economic diversification. Thanks to the
easing of budget constraints and access to private finance, CAR would be able to improve WASH
standards at the national level, which is expected to have a significant positive impact on the health
and labor productivity of the population. Irrespective of the climate pathway, WASH access would
generate a net benefit (taking costs into account) of 1.9 percent of GDP by 2050. In addition, the
increase in agricultural productivity resulting primarily from the use of arable land potential, the
introduction of improved fertilizers, and diversification towards less climate-exposed secondary
activities would mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on rain-fed agriculture (from 4.0
percent of GDP in the BAU scenario to 3.2 percent of GDP in the ASP scenario under the worst case
“h / ” h )
Figure 4.3a: Total GDP Impacts (percent) of the Combined “Wet/Warm” and “Hot/Dry” Paths by 2050
under the ASP Scenario

Source: CCDR team construction.
Policies that ease structural change are a potential solution to the scourge of climate-induced
poverty. Figure 4.3b h h h h ’ h
the aspirational path. A key finding is that the climate-induced poverty under the aspirational scenario
(Figure 4.3b) is expected to be only a fraction of the increase in poverty observed previously in the BAU
scenario (Figure 4.2b). This conclusion holds for the different years, climate scenarios, and levels of
aggregation. The increase in household resiliency, brought on by the reforms under the aspirational
scenario, accumulates over time. In 2050, the climate-induced rise in poverty at the national level,
under the ASP scenario, will be 1.4 percentage points lower than the expected increase under the BAU
scenario—4.4 pp. While in 2030, the difference between growth scenarios is practically zero. The gains
under the ASP scenario are expected to be felt in rural areas, as the policy reforms are expected to
substantially increase agricultural productivity and diversify the income portfolio of households. Finally,
the figure shows how, under the aspirational scenario, climate change could result in slight declines in
98An adverse impact of climate change under the pessimistic "hot/dry" climate path is commonplace in most of the CCDRs elaborated thus far, and it is
not unique to CAR. It is important not to interpret this as a deficiency in reforms undertaken by the country, but rather as the result of exceptionally hostile
weather conditions.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
poverty in the wet/warm scenario as crop yields are expected to increase, improving the livelihoods of
farmers and agricultural workers in CAR.
Figure 4.3b: Poverty Headcount Impacts (percent) of the Combined “Wet/Warm” and “Hot/Dry” Paths by
2050 under the ASP Scenario
Source: CCDR team construction.
Table 4.2: GDP Losses and Increases in Poverty Headcount, BAU and ASP by 2050 (No Climate Action)
GDP (%) Poverty Headcount (percentage
Climate Scenario points)
BAU ASP BAU ASP
Wet/Warm -1.7 0.0 0.5 -0.2
Hot/Dry -7.8 -5.2 4.4 3.0
Source: CCDR team construction.
4.4.2. How Adequate Climate Measures Would Bring Net Gains
The CC-MFMod introduces the potential economic benefits of implementing specific climate adaptation
measures across various technology and damage functions in CAR. The section analyzes how strategic
adaptations, aligned with broader development and reform strategies (ASP scenario), can mitigate
adverse climate impacts and generate significant net gains by 2050. These targeted measures are
crucial for building resilience and ensuring sustainable development in the face of climate threats. The
primary adaptations considered include enhancements in agricultural practices, infrastructure
resilience, and public health systems. Each adaptation strategy is evaluated for its potential to deliver
net economic benefits by reducing vulnerability and enhancing productiv b h“ / ”
“h / ” h
Chapter 3 outlined how climate adaptation, utilizing national human, natural, and physical capital
presents significant socio-economic opportunities. Highlighted opportunities include sustainable land
and water management practices to revitalize agriculture, renewable energy development to transform
the energy landscape, education and healthcare reforms to build a resilient workforce, resilient
infrastructure projects securing and connecting communities, and integrated urban development.
The current chapter operationalizes some of the proposed reforms and programs outlined in the
previous chapter, including (i) improving access to WASH services; (ii) adopting climate-smart
agriculture (CSA) practices such as irrigation, crop selection, and soil preservation, (iii) managing heat
stress through renewable energy generation and improved access to air cooling systems, (iv)
infrastructure planning and construction beyond historical floodplains for Bangui and major secondary
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
cities, and (v) bolstering the maintenance and resilience of critical network infrastructures like roads
and bridges.
Investments in these targeted climate adaptation measures in parallel with reforms could significantly
reduce climate damage in CAR and even lead to economic gains, referred to as a "climate resilient"
(ASP-CR) scenario. If CAR can invest in the targeted climate adaptation measures mentioned above
with the support of donor partners and the private sector, in addition to adopting the above reforms in
the ASP scenario, climate damages could be reduced to -3.3 percent by 2050 in the worst-case scenario
in the “h / ” h 9 “ / ”
environment (Figure 4.4a).
Implementing adaptation strategies will yield significant benefits for the poor and vulnerable. Figure
4.4b quantifies the welfare losses when adaptation measures are implemented in the aspirational
scenario. As depicted in Figure 4.4b, there are even reduction in poverty across all the years in the wet
warm scenario when adaptation policies are implemented. Moreover, these gains compound over time,
with the peak of these gains being in 2050. Although poverty increase under the dry-hot scenario, this
increase is expected to be just a fraction of the increase observed in the previous estimates (BaU and
ASP scenario). F j h h “ /h ” h
poverty could increase by 1.6 percentage points nationally, with most of the increase being driven by
an increase of 2.1 percentage points in rural areas. This implies that boosting structural change and
taking climate action can bring substantial dividends, as the increases in poverty are expected to be
halve of the increase in poverty compared to the BAU scenario.
Figure 4.4a: Total GDP Impacts (percent) of the Combined “Wet/Warm” and “Hot/Dry” Paths by 2050
under the ASP-CR Scenario

Source: CCDR team construction.
Decisions on targeted adaptation measures must follow a 'no-regret' policy that ensures cost-effective
benefits regardless of climate uncertainties. This means that policymakers using climate information
must change their practices and decision-making frameworks, for instance by adapting uncertainty
management methods in line with the recommendations from the background paper Climate Change
and Disaster Management Pacific Possible .99 To illustrate this with urban-related risks, policymakers
must: (i) embrace strategies that yield immediate benefits irrespective of climate change, such as
reducing water distribution system leaks, enhancing building standards, and increasing road
maintenance frequency; (ii) prioritize flexible options that can be easily reversed or adapted, such as
early-warning systems for floods and other natural disasters; (iii) incorporate 'safety margins' into new
investments, which may involve restrictive land-use planning, reinforced front river protections, and
enhanced drainage capacity for urban infrastructure; (iv) promote strategies centered on institutional
99 World Bank Group, 2016 (P119111): Climate change and Disaster Management. Pacific Possible Background Paper #6. World Bank Group,
Washington, D.C.
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development, policy improvements, and behavior change, including the institutionalization of long-term
investment planning, multi-criteria assessments, and diverse policy and financial investment
instruments; and (v) shorten decision time horizons, particularly in flood-prone areas, by constructing
cost-effective, shorter-lived houses that can be quickly and economically replaced when necessary.
Figure 4.4b: Poverty Headcount Impacts (percentage) of Adding Adaptation Measures by 2050 under the
ASP-CR Scenario
Wet/Warm ASP-CR
Dry/Hot ASP-CR 2.13
2 1.58
1.04
Percentage points
0
-0.38
-0.96
-2 -1.58
30 40 50 30 40 50 30 40 50
National Urban Rural
Source: CCDR team construction.
Establishing fiscal buffers and insurance mechanisms to enhance the nation's resilience to climate
impacts appears imperative, particularly considering the constrained fiscal resources even within the
ASP scenario. While the ASP scenarios allow for increased fiscal space, fiscal limitations may persist
when prioritizing climate adaptation measures due to their cumulative estimated implementation and
maintenance costs (Table 4.3). Consequently, the government would need to convert this fiscal
challenge into a collaborative opportunity under the 'no-regret' policy mentioned above. This entails
jointly developing insurance mechanisms with the private sector and garnering support from
international partners to ensure the implementation and maintenance of selected climate adaptation
measures.
Table 4.3: Net Gains from Climate Adaptation Measures
Technology/Damage Description Estimated Annual Net GDP Gain by Suggested Solutions Highlighted in
Function Cost of 2050 in percent Chapter 3
Implementation GDP1
and Maintenance
(US$ million)
Water, Sanitation, Improvements in To be confirmed +1.9% of GDP Leverage blue capital for better water supply and
sanitation services;
Hygiene (WASH) national access to (irrespective of
water and climate path)
public disease control and resilient healthcare
sanitation facilities. infrastructure;
solid waste management improvements.
Agricultural Practices Extension of Around US$13.7 +1.3% of GDP Sustainable agriculture promotion (enhance food
security and environmental conservation;
(Climate-Smart irrigation and million (irrespective of promotes climate-resilient practices);
Agriculture, CSA) introduction to climate path)
heat-tolerant crop adaptative agricultural research (develops drought
varieties; soil and temperature-resistant crop varieties; supports
preservation. vulnerable communities).
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Labor Heat Stress Better access to air Around US$206.2 +0.4% of GDP Renewable energy expansion and regional
electricity trade;
conditioning million2 (“ / ” h)
systems thanks to to +0.5% of GDP
electrification through mini-grids and off-grid
enhanced energy (“h / ” h) solutions;
generation.
private sector engagement in renewable energy.
Urban Flooding Infrastructure Residual by itself +0.6% of GDP Integrated urban planning;
planning and (irrespective of
construction climate path) land administration reform;
outside of historical
floodplains. urban community engagement and equity;
urban transport improvement.
Roads and Bridges Enhancing the Around US$25.1 +0.1% of GDP Climate-resilient road maintenance;
resilience of road million (irrespective of
and bridge climate path) climate-resilient infrastructure design;
networks through
better construction financial mechanisms maintenance.
and maintenance
practices.
Source: CCDR team construction.
Notes: Projected net gains, inclusive of estimated implementation costs, are calculated relative to the ASP scenario, thus requiring careful interpretation
within the specific ASP scenario framework. They primarily serve as approximate indicators to highlight the cost-effectiveness of climate action measures.
1: Net gains for access to WASH services are already encompassed in the ASP scenario. 2 : The estimated annual adaptation cost for labor heat stress
account for both the unit cost for air conditionning units as well as the amount of capital expenditure access to expand the access the electricity provision
through renewable energy solutions (e.g., solar plants, hydro, off-grid solar panels).
Focusing on initiatives that promise net gains irrespective of climate variables or potential trajectories
h h h ‘ - ’ This approach ensures that investments in
adaptation measures yield positive outcomes regardless of the specific climate conditions, thereby
maximizing resilience and sustainability in the long term.
Key Insights from the transmission channels:
• WASH Services: By 2050, enhancements in WASH facilities are projected to uniformly offer a
net benefit across both climate paths, emphasizing their critical role in improving public health
and productivity.
• Labor Heat Stress: Renewable energy generation is among the top development priorities for
the country, expected to have multidimensional positive economic impacts (e.g., higher
productivity for firms; the ability to implement digital solutions) and social impacts (e.g.,
uninterrupted health services and other essential public services). In the current modeling
approach, it would facilitate increased utilization of cooling systems for governmental and
private sector purposes, with greater advantages evident under the 'hot/dry' path due to
heightened vulnerability to heat stress.
• Agricultural Practices: Modifying agricultural practices to be climate-smart, such as adopting
irrigation and heat-tolerant crops adapted to heterogeneous agro-ecological realities while
preserving soil from erosion, presents varying gains related to increased yields and food
security.
• Urban Flooding and Infrastructure: Adapting urban planning to avoid flood-prone areas and
strengthening infrastructure resilience yield substantial benefits related to savings in operation
and maintenance (O&M) costs.100
100 Ensuring the maintenance of road and bridge networks, power plants, and critical urban infrastructure facilities presents both challenges and
opportunities. Leveraging low-cost construction materials, particularly in areas prone to natural disasters, and providing training for both low-skilled workers
for labor-intensive construction programs and higher-skilled workers for building maintenance and network management can address these challenges
while tapping into valuable opportunities.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
• Roads and Bridges: Investments in the resilience of roads and bridges, although offering
smaller net gains, are crucial for maintaining connectivity and economic activity in the face of
climate shocks.101
These proposed targeted adaptations not only mitigate the impacts of climate change but also
contribute to broader economic stability and growth, highlighting the intertwined nature of development
and climate resilience strategies.
Leveraging the natural capital rent to achieve development and climate adaptation objectives will be
essential. The modeling only partially captures the full range of interventions outlined in the National
Adaptation Plan (NAP). As highlighted in Chapter 3, natural capital constitutes most of the total wealth
in CAR and can be partially converted into human capital and physical capital. This can be achieved
through the agricultural channel, as emphasized in the NAP, as well as through more effective
management of natural resources.102 This, in turn, would lead to (i) more efficient DRM103 to improve
human capital (e.g., schooling level and labor heat stress)104 and closure of the infrastructure gap (e.g.,
roads maintenance, WASH), (ii) renewable energy production (e.g., solar and hydro), and (iii) improved
global value chains, and the structural transformation of the economy (e.g., food and beverage
processing, eco-tourism, and mineral and wood transformation).
Integrating climate action under the ASP- h ’
impacts, showcasing a notable reduction in GDP losses and, in some instances, net economic gains.
Strategic investments in climate-resilient infrastructure, enhanced agricultural practices, and
comprehensive policy reforms under the ASP-CR scenario lead to improved economic outcomes and
reduced vulnerability. Under this scenario, the adverse effects of climate change are largely mitigated,
transforming potential GDP losses into gains in some climate conditions (1.6 percent GDP gain under
h “ / ” h )
Table 4.4: GDP Losses
Under BAU and ASP with GDP (%) Poverty headcount (percentage
Climate Action (ASP- points)
CR)Climate Scenario BAU ASP-CR BAU ASP-CR
Wet/Warm -1.7 1.9 0.5 -1
Hot/Dry -7.8 -3.3 4.4 1.6
Source: CCDR team construction.
4.5. Integrating Policies for Development and Climate
To navigate the dual challenges of economic development and climate resilience, CAR must pursue
aggressive policy reforms and strategic climate adaptation measures. The chapter strongly
recommends enhancing the country's fiscal and institutional frameworks, diversifying the economy, and
securing climate finance to support extensive adaptation measures. The limitations of the current
approach include the reliance on predictive modeling with inherent uncertainties, suggesting the
potential for refining these models with more localized data and updated climate scenarios. Future
improvements should focus on integrating real-time data monitoring and feedback mechanisms to
adapt policies dynamically to changing climate and economic conditions. Additionally, fostering
international collaboration for technical and financial support can amplify the effectiveness of national
strategies, providing a more resilient pathway for CAR's development.
The chapter underscores the prerequisite of economic development and growth, advocating for a
proactive developmental state approach aligned with the CEM 105 and the NDP to foster prosperity amid
significant climate uncertainties. Escaping the fragility trap remains paramount for CAR, with the ASP
scenario offering a promising avenue to mitigate climate impacts through the effective implementation
of bold, inclusive growth DRM and PFM reforms. These macro-fiscal reforms encompass effective
101 Ibid.
102 In this regard, the promulgation of the new mining code and a new forestry code seems critical.
103 The ongoing PFR (P500483) will dedicate a section to the potential revenue streams from natural resources, including extractives and forestry.
104 See for instance, Cust and Mandon (2021, p. 336) on the improvement of schooling attainment in Botswana since the 1970s.
[https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/1d30c892-b27f-5bbd-af83-d1bd743f9897/content].
105 World Bank Group, 2022 (P174996): op. cit.
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budget execution, modern tax administration, policy reorientation toward development, fostering long-
term growth, accelerating human capital formation, attracting private investment, and bolstering trade
to reduce fragility and enhance market-based competition.
The chapter advocates for targeted climate measures that further climate mitigation or result in net
gains, thanks to the freed fiscal space under the ASP scenario, the private sector, and, more generally,
h ’ j Drawing on potential solutions outlined in
Chapter 3, CAR stands poised to harness targeted climate adaptation measures to yield net gains
regardless of climate uncertainties. Specifically, enhancements in WASH facilities, renewable energy
generation for cooling systems, CSA practices, urban flood prevention, and resilient infrastructure
investments offer varied but significant net benefits across climate scenarios. Given limited fiscal space
even under the ASP scenario, the government should transform this fiscal hurdle into a collaborative
opportunity with the private sector and all partners through a 'no-regret' policy.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
5. Summary and main recommendations
5.1. Summary
The following nine main recommendations from the CCDR stem from a rigorous diagnostic analysis of
the country's challenges at the intersection of underdevelopment, fragility, and climate vulnerability.
These recommendations were meticulously developed by assessing the synergy, urgency, and
feasibility of initially proposed solutions, among which some were identified as both synergistic and
urgent. This process involved categorizing these solutions according to their type — direct actions,
enabling environments, and support systems — and their implementation horizon — short, medium, and
long term. 'Direct actions' are concrete interventions that have an immediate impact on development
and climate resilience, such as infrastructure improvement or renewable energy expansion. 'Enabling
environments' include policies and institutional frameworks that facilitate effective climate action and
sustainable development practices, such as legislative reforms and incentive policies. Finally, 'support
systems' are educational, technological, and community initiatives that support the sustainability and
scaling of climate and development actions, such as awareness and training programs. Each type of
solution is assessed based on its urgency of implementation, classified as short, medium, or long-term,
to prioritize actions and strategically allocate resources.
In the context of CAR, a country characterized by low economic growth, high debt, and fragile
governance structures, a tailored approach to financing is crucial for implementing the solutions
identified in this report. The proposed financing mechanisms, as illustrated in the table below, reflect
a pragmatic and strategic alignment with CAR's macroeconomic realities and the need for sustainable
resource mobilization.
Financing strategies are designed to leverage a mix of humanitarian aid, concessional loans,
international development assistance, and community financing. These mechanisms are selected to
minimize additional indebtedness, enhance fiscal sustainability, and maximize the impact of each
monetary unit spent. In the short term, immediate needs are addressed by direct aid and micro-grants,
ensuring a rapid response without burdening the national budget. In the medium term, concessional
loans and targeted development assistance support larger projects with broader economic and
institutional impacts, facilitated by international financial institutions and donor countries. For long-
term sustainability, investments are directed towards building resilience and improving governance
through structured funds and development bonds, specially designed for fragile states.
The CAR government, with the support of its financial and technical partners, must prioritize a resource
mobilization strategy that aligns with these financing mechanisms. This strategy should focus on:
1. Improving aid effectiveness: Ensure that aid and grants are used efficiently, with clear
mechanisms for accountability and transparency.
2. Strengthening partnerships: Develop robust partnerships with international donors, NGOs, and
the private sector to secure investments and expertise.
3. Enhancing institutional capacities: Improve institutional frameworks to better manage and
implement financed projects, ensuring that investments lead to sustainable outcomes. The
proposed financing mechanisms are integral to the strategic implementation of the solutions
proposed in this report and are essential for advancing CAR's development and climate
resilience agendas. This approach addresses not only immediate challenges but also lays the
foundation for sustainable development, ensuring that CAR can build a resilient and
prosperous future despite its current constraints. It is critical to emphasize the need for a
coordinated and well-planned financing strategy, highlighting the role of each stakeholder in
this collective effort.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
Table 5.1: Solutions and Financing Mechanisms by Type and Horizon
Type / Short-term Medium-term Long-term
Horizon
Direct 1. Public Health Interventions; 5. Renewable Energy Expansion; 12. Agroforestry and Sustainable Land
Actions 2. Disaster Risk Management; 6. Urban Transport Improvement; Management Program; 13. Forest
3. Water and Sanitation Access; 7. Integrated Urban Planning; 8. Conservation and Climate Resilience
4. Promotion of Sustainable Green and Resilient Mobility and Initiative; 14. Community-Based Forest
Agriculture Energy; 9. Climate-Resilient Management and Benefit-Sharing Program
Infrastructure Design; 10.
Multimodal Transport Networks;
11. Climate Risk Early Warning
and Information Program
Financing Humanitarian Aid, Microgrants Public-Private Partnerships, Long-term Bonds, Sovereign Funds,
Mechanism Loans, Investment Funds International Development Loans
Enabling 15. Comprehensive Climate 18. Water Resource Management 25. Climate Governance Efficiency
Environment Legal Framework Program; 16. Improvement; 19. Climate- Program; 26. Local Climate Capacity
National Health Adaptation Responsive Budgeting Program; Enhancement Program; 27. Transparent
Plan; 17. Strengthening 20. Energy Policy and Regulatory Climate Governance Program
Inclusive Decision-Making and Reform Program; 21. Land
Institutions Administration Reform; 22.
Watershed Management
Program; 23. Climate-Resilient
Road Maintenance; 24. Road
Maintenance Fund Optimization
Program
Financing International Governance Aid, Budget Support from IFIs, Policy- Structured Multi-Donor Trusts,
Mechanism Technical Assistance Based Loans Endowments
Support 28. School Climate Risk 33. Small-scale Irrigation 34. Irrigation Resilience Enhancement; 35.
Systems Assessment and Mitigation Improvement Program Resilient Healthcare Infrastructure; 36.
Initiative; 29. Education Sector REDD+ and Payments for Environmental
Climate Resilience Policy; 30. Services; 37. Community Engagement and
Locally Led Climate Action Equity; 38. Forest Governance and Land
Program; 31. Gender Tenure Reform Program; 39. Community
Responsive Climate Water Management Development
Empowerment Policy; 32. Programs; 40. Reforestation and
Community Knowledge Conservation Initiatives; 41. Local
Integration for Resilience Sustainable Development Projects; 42.
Environmental Education and Awareness
Programs
Financing Local Community Funds, Small Capacity Building Grants, Long-term Philanthropic Funding, Long-
Mechanism Grants Educational Partnerships term Government Funding, International
Climate Finance
5.2. Main Recommendations
By grouping together solutions of the same type, same horizon, and same source of funding, this
strategic assessment ensured that each recommendation directly addresses CAR's critical needs while
promoting sustainable and resilient development practices. By prioritizing interventions that offer the
greatest impact and aligning them with national priorities (NDP, NDC, NAP etc.) and international
standards, these recommendations aim to guide concerted action and targeted investments that can
significantly alter CAR's development trajectory.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
High Urgency and Impact (Immediate Implementation Needed)
Recommendation #1: Enhance infrastructure resilience to natural disasters. For public bodies in CAR,
it is imperative to strengthen infrastructure resilience to protect lives and maintain essential services.
This initiative focuses on strengthening critical assets such as urban drainage, roads, bridges, and
public buildings against natural disasters, using public funding, international aid, and grants for climate
resilience. Given CAR's susceptibility to climate disasters, this measure directly enhances the safety
and economic stability of both urban and rural populations, significantly reducing disruptions related to
disasters.
Recommendation #2: Foster partnerships for renewable energy and rural electrification. This
recommendation calls on the private sector and government to establish partnerships to expand access
to renewable energy in urban and rural areas, focusing on solar and wind energy projects. By leveraging
public-private partnerships, international green energy funds, and private investments, this strategy
aims to reduce dependence on non-renewable sources, enhance energy security, and support
sustainable economic development, thus increasing economic opportunities in rural communities and
contributing to national energy independence.
Recommendation #3: Develop a national strategy for education and communication on climate change.
Targeting civil society and education authorities, CAR must develop a comprehensive strategy to
integrate climate change awareness and resilience skills into the national education curriculum and
public communication channels. Funded by government budget allocations and supported by
international educational and environmental organizations, this initiative is crucial for educating the
populace about climate change, fostering a climate-aware generation capable of informed participation
and proactive community engagement in climate initiatives.
Medium Urgency but High Impact (Strategic Implementation Needed)
Recommendation #4: Implement water resource management reforms. Public bodies in CAR are
encouraged to reform policies to ensure sustainable use and equitable distribution of water resources.
This initiative is critical for adapting to variable rainfall patterns and securing water for all users,
essential for food security and health. Supported by national government funding and international
water management grants, sustainable water management will ensure a reliable water supply for
agriculture and domestic use.
Recommendation #5: Increase technical and financial partners' coordination for climate finance
optimization. International financial partners are called upon to improve coordination among donors to
maximize the efficiency and impact of climate finance. This strategy, involving structured international
funding and coordinated investment strategies, is key to efficiently implementing large-scale adaptation
j h h ’
critical climate action needs.
Recommendation #6: Promote financial inclusion to facilitate climate resilience investments. Targeting
private sector financiers, regulatory authorities, and financial institutions, this recommendation
advocates for enhancing financial inclusion to empower CAR's citizens, particularly rural smallholders
and entrepreneurs, to access and utilize financial products that support sustainable development and
climate resilience investments. Enhanced financial services are crucial for financing initiatives such as
renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and water resource management, which are vital under
CAR's climate and development framework. Financial inclusion not only accelerates the implementation
of these critical projects by providing necessary capital but also supports the economic stability of
communities, enabling them to adapt to and recover effectively from climate impacts. By fostering
economic participation and resilience, this strategy directly contributes to the nation's broader goals of
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
sustainable growth and climate adaptability, ensuring that development efforts lead to tangible
h h ’
Moderate Urgency and Impact (Gradual Implementation Advisable)
Recommendation #7: Mobilize empowerment and community monitoring of climate adaptation
projects. Civil society organizations in CAR should enable local NGOs to oversee the implementation of
climate adaptation projects, ensuring that community needs are met. Funded by grants from
international NGOs and community funding, this initiative increases community involvement and
accountability, improving the success rate and sustainability of adaptation projects. It will also
strengthen the empowerment of marginalized groups and support inclusive decision-making processes.
Recommendation #8: Develop and enforce comprehensive policies for the sustainable development
and management of natural capital. Public bodies are advised to establish and strengthen
comprehensive policies that not only regulate but also promote sustainable land use and natural
resource management. These policies should encompass environmental protection measures and
extend to economic strategies that valorize natural assets and create sustainable jobs. This integrated
approach should support the development of value chains, particularly in forestry, to enhance the
economic benefits for local communities while ensuring the conservation of resources. Supported by
government budgets and supplemented by international environmental governance funds, these
’ b
The aim is to improve land and resource security, thereby benefiting rural communities and fostering
economic resilience. By linking environmental sustainability with economic development, these policies
will help to create a robust framework that encourages responsible use and enhances the livelihoods
of those dependent on natural resources.
Recommendation #9: Strengthen agricultural resilience through climate-smart practices. Public bodies
and the agricultural sector must implement and support the adoption of climate-resilient agricultural
methods to enhance productivity and sustainability. Supported by government subsidies and
international agricultural development funds, this initiative improves land and resource security and
fosters sustainable agricultural practices, essential for enhancing the resilience and productivity of
CAR's predominantly agrarian economy.
Call to Action
The findings and recommendations presented in this report reflect a comprehensive approach,
informed by rigorous analysis conducted by the World Bank's team of specialists. They are designed to
guide the Central African Republic towards a sustainable development path, highlighting the
importance of resilience in the face of environmental, economic, and social challenges. Implementing
these recommendations requires a unified vision and a shared resolve from all stakeholders, including
government bodies, private sector entities, civil society, and international partners. Each group has a
pivotal role to play, from enhancing infrastructure resilience to developing inclusive financial strategies
that empower citizens. The collaborative efforts of these stakeholders are essential for transforming
the recommendations into effective actions that significantly improve CAR's stability and prosperity. By
aligning their actions with these strategic recommendations, stakeholders can ensure that every step
taken contributes positively to CAR's journey towards a more secure, prosperous, and resilient nation.
This report not only calls for immediate and concerted action but also serves as a foundation for
ongoing engagement and investment in CAR's future. It is imperative for all participants to engage
actively and thoughtfully, using this report as a roadmap and direct contribution to finalizing and
implementing the next NDP, to initiate sustainable change and achieve lasting impact in a way that
serves the people of CAR. Aligning ideas, actors, and financial resources towards a unified and
impactful development strategy is essential.
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Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
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