The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ecuador Third Green and Resilient Recovery DPF (EGARR-DPF3) (P180319) Ecuador Third Green and Resilient Recovery DPF (EGARR-DPF3) (P180319) LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN | Ecuador | IBRD/IDA | Development Policy Financing (DPF) | FY 2024 | Seq No: 1 | Archived on 08-Oct-2024 | ISR01534 Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Economy and Finance 1. OBJECTIVE 1.1 Development Objective Original Development Objective (Approved as part of Approval package on 03-Aug-2023) The Program’s Development Objective (PDO) is to assist the government of Ecuador in its agenda to tackle selected structural challenges to foster inclusive, resilient, and low-carbon development. Has the Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No 2. OVERALL RATINGS Name Current Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Comments No comment 3. KEY ISSUES & STATUS 3.1 Implementation Status and Key Decisions The government continues to implement the program satisfactorily. The new administration has strengthened some of the measures supported by the DPF series, such as reducing fuel subsidies, establishing the Energy Efficiency Investment Fund, and enacting the Violet Law's implementation regulations. 4. SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL Oct 08, 2024 Page 1 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ecuador Third Green and Resilient Recovery DPF (EGARR-DPF3) (P180319) Rating at Approval Risk Category Approval Package - 04 Aug Proposed Rating 2023 Political and Governance High High Macroeconomic Substantial Substantial Sector Strategies and Policies Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program Moderate Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Substantial Substantial Sustainability Fiduciary Moderate Moderate Environment and Social Moderate Moderate Stakeholders Substantial Substantial Overall Substantial Substantial Oct 08, 2024 Page 2 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ecuador Third Green and Resilient Recovery DPF (EGARR-DPF3) (P180319) 5. RESULTS 5.1 Indicators by Pillars Pillar 1- Tackle selected structural challenges to foster green growth, inclusion, and climate resilience Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Closing Period Indicator Name Value Month/Year Value Date Value Date Value Month/Year RI#1. Increase in Central 12,048 million Dec/2019 12,482 million 31-Dec-2023 12,482 million 31-Dec-2023 At least 14,320 Dec/2024 Government Tax revenues, million excluding tariffs and the tax Comments on On track. 2023 was an exceptional year, where there was high political instability, on transfers abroad (ISD), achieving targets insecurity, low oil production, low growth. New tax measures have been implemented, US$ million. security improved, and political stability. It is expected that the target will be achieved. (Amount(USD)) RI#2. Increase the share of 3.80 Dec/2021 24.50 30-Jun-2024 24.50 30-Jun-2024 6.00 Dec/2024 imported electric and hybrid Comments on Met vehicles, percent of achieving targets imported vehicles. (Percentage) RI#3. Increase PetroEcuador 6.90 Dec/2021 9.30 31-Jul-2024 9.30 31-Jul-2024 10 Dec/2024 diesel sales to the large Comments on On track shrimp farms as a achieving targets percentage of its total fuel sales, excluding sales to transport, tuna, and fishing. (Percentage) 0 Dec/2020 2 31-Jul-2024 2 31-Jul-2024 2 Dec/2024 Oct 08, 2024 Page 3 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ecuador Third Green and Resilient Recovery DPF (EGARR-DPF3) (P180319) RI#4. Increase the number of Comments on Met central government’s achieving targets budgets submitted to the National Assembly (pro forma) using the COGPACC. (Number) RI#5. Increase the number of 0 2 15-Aug-2024 2 15-Aug-2024 2 pre-identified projects that Comments on Met could be financed by achieving targets sovereign green bonds. (Number) RI#6. Increase the number of 0 Dec/2020 12 31-Dec-2023 12 31-Dec-2023 At least 5 Dec/2024 PPP projects assessed using Comments on Met the methodology to identify achieving targets contingent liabilities related to climate and other climate- related disasters. (Number) RI#7. Increase in the 0 Dec/2020 34 31-Dec-2023 34 31-Dec-2023 At least 30 Dec/2024 percentage of imports Comments on Met benefiting from the achieving targets measures (reducing tariffs and non-tariff measures) (Percentage) RI#8. Increase the 20 Dec/2019 80.30 31-Dec-2023 80.30 31-Dec-2023 At least 80 Dec/2024 percentage of poor female- Comments on Met headed households (without achieving targets a partner) settled in parishes with the greatest vulnerability to disasters Oct 08, 2024 Page 4 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ecuador Third Green and Resilient Recovery DPF (EGARR-DPF3) (P180319) registered and potentially eligible at RUAD. (Percentage) RI#9. Increase the 14.30 Dec/2020 28.62 31-Dec-2023 28.62 31-Dec-2023 At least 30 Dec/2024 percentage of pregnant Comments on On track. The government estimates that they will reach 33 percent by November of this women and children achieving targets year. younger than 2 years old who receive timely health check-ups, birth registration, and, according to their poverty status, receive child dev (Percentage) 0 Dec/2020 Registered 31-Jul-2024 Registered 31-Jul-2024 Registered Dec/2024 with relevant with relevant with relevant certificates : certificates : certificates: At RI#10. Increase the number 191,584 (of 191,584 (of least 221,500 of Venezuelan migrants: (i) which 52.8 % which 52.8 % (of which 50% registered at the Migrant female). female). female); Registry with relevant VIRTE: 94,516 VIRTE: 94,516 VIRTE: At least certificates; and (ii) granted persons (of persons (of 176,497 (of VIRTE visa. (Number) which 53.3% which 53.3% which 50% female). female). female) Comments on Gender equality targets have been met. Overall figures are slightly below targets. achieving targets RI#11. Increase in the 0 Dec/2022 6% women 31-Dec-2023 6% women 31-Dec-2023 100 Dec/2024 percentage of competitive participated in participated in processes for the selection selection procurement of services and process for process for works in the electricity works, and 27 works, and 27 Oct 08, 2024 Page 5 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ecuador Third Green and Resilient Recovery DPF (EGARR-DPF3) (P180319) sector that adhere to percent percent gender-inclusive female female qualification criteria. participated in participated in (Percentage) the process of the process of services. services. Comments on On track. achieving targets Pillar 2: Strengthen low-carbon development Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Closing Period Indicator Name Value Month/Year Value Date Value Date Value Month/Year RI#12. Increase renewable 310 818.51 31-Aug-2024 818.51 31-Aug-2024 At least 650 Dec/2024 energy generation capacity Comments on Met awarded through PPS, MW. achieving targets (Megawatt) RI#13. Decrease volume of 0 31.30 31-Jul-2024 31.30 31-Jul-2024 At least 15 Dec/2024 associated gas flared, Comments on Met percent. (Percentage) achieving targets RI#14. Decrease energy 0 3,790.60 31-Dec-2023 3,790.60 31-Dec-2023 At least 3,000 Dec/2024 consumption as per NDP Comments on Met 2021-2025, kBOE. achieving targets (Number) RI#15. Decrease CO2 0 Dec/2018 0 31-Dec-2018 0 31-Dec-2018 At least 2.0 Dec/2025 emissions from transport, Comments on Not available yet. percent change from BAU achieving targets (2018). (Percentage) 0 Dec/2021 51 31-Jul-2024 51 31-Jul-2024 At least 50 Dec/2024 Oct 08, 2024 Page 6 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ecuador Third Green and Resilient Recovery DPF (EGARR-DPF3) (P180319) RI#16. Increase the number Comments on Met of public and private achieving targets institutions quantifying intended mitigation measures under the PECC. (Number) RI#17. Decrease the annual 0 Dec/2019 0 31-Dec-2019 0 31-Dec-2019 At least 4 Dec/2024 forest loss in rural/forest Comments on Not available yet. But it is likely that it is off track. There were delays in the implementation frontiers, percent change achieving targets of the reforms due to change in the authorities at the Ministry of Environment. from BAU (2019). (Percentage) Oct 08, 2024 Page 7 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ecuador Third Green and Resilient Recovery DPF (EGARR-DPF3) (P180319) 6. DATA ON FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 6.1 Disbursements (by loan) Loan/Credit/TF Status Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed Historical Disbursed IBRD-95850 Effective 500.00 500.00 0.00 500.00 0.00 100.00 500.00 % 6.2 Key Dates (by loan) Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Signing Effectiveness Orig. Closing Rev. Closing IBRD-95850 Effective 04-Aug-2023 22-Aug-2023 30-Aug-2023 31-Dec-2024 31-Dec-2024 7. KEY DATES Key Events Planned Actual Approval 04-Aug-2023 04-Aug-2023 Effectiveness 30-Aug-2023 30-Aug-2023 Operation Closing/Cancellation 31-Dec-2024 8. TRANCHES No Tranches have been added 9. ASSOCIATED OPERATION(S) There are no associated operations Oct 08, 2024 Page 8 of 8