Report No: ICR00095 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT IDA-64170, IDA-67040, IDA-67030, IDA-69370 ON A CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF US$120 MILLION TO THE SAINT VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES FOR THE FISCAL REFORM AND RESILIENCE DEVELOPMENT POLICY CREDIT PROGRAMMATIC SERIES September, 2024 Regional Department for the Environment Latin America And Caribbean The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective {Jul 31, 2024}) Currency Unit = EC$ EC$ 2.70 = US$1 US$ 1.32 = SDR 1 FISCAL YEAR July 1 – June 30 Regional Vice President: Carlos Felipe Jaramillo Country Director: Lilia Burunciuc Regional Director: Benoit Bosquet Practice Manager: Cary Anne Cadman Task Team Leader (s): David MacWilliam, Keren Carla Charles ICR Main Contributor: Apoorva Shenvi The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CAD Current Account Deficit Cat DDO Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option CBF Caribbean Biodiversity Fund CDB Caribbean Development Bank DPC Development Policy Credit DPF Development Policy Financing DRF Disaster Risk Financing DRM Disaster Risk Management ECCB Eastern Caribbean Central Bank ECCU Eastern Caribbean Currency Union EIA Environmental Impact Assessment FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product GoSVG Government of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IAB Interim Assistance Benefits IDA International Development Association IMF International Monetary Fund ISR Implementation Status and Results MOE Ministry of Education MOF Ministry of Finance MTDS Medium‐Term Debt Management Strategy MTFF Medium‐Term Fiscal Framework NAP National Adaptation Plan NESDP National Economic and Social Development Plan NOPSAP National Oceans Policy and Strategic Action Plan OECS Organization of Eastern Caribbean States PA Prior Action PDO Program Development Objective PFM Public Financial Management PLR Performance and Learning Review PPU Physical Planning Unit PPWS Priority Pollution Watch Sites RI Results Indicator RPS Regional Partnership Strategy SOE State-owned Enterprises SVG Saint Vincent and the Grenadines SVGCF Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Conservation Fund TA Technical Assistance TNC The Nature Conservancy TUB Temporary Unemployment Benefit VAT Value-added Tax The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET ................................................................................................................................................. i I. PROGRAM CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES .................................................................................2 II. ASSESSMENT OF KEY PROGRAM DESIGN AND OUTCOMES ...........................................................................7 III. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS ............................................................................................................. 24 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE................................................................................................................................ 26 V. RISK TO SUSTAINABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES ............................................................................ 27 VI. LESSONS AND NEXT PHASE ........................................................................................................................ 28 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK ...................................................................................................................... 30 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ....................................................... 33 ANNEX 3. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIERS, AND OTHER DEVELOPMENT PARTNERS’/STAKEHOLDERS’ COMMENTS . 36 ANNEX 4. SECTORS AND THEMES ...................................................................................................................... 37 ANNEX 5. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS ................................................................................................................ 39 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT DATA SHEET @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@icrdpfseriesbasicdata#doctemplate PROGRAM SERIES Program Information Operation Short Operation ID Position in series Status Operation Name Name SVG Fiscal First Fiscal Reform and Resilience P165220 First Closed Reformand Development Policy Credit Resilience DPF I SVG 2nd Fiscal Second Fiscal Reform and Resilience P169956 Last Closed Reform & Development Policy Credit with a Cat DDO Resilience DPC Program Series Amounts (USD) Operation ID Ln/Cr/TF Approved Amount Disbursed Amount IDA-69370 50,000,000.00 50,000,000.00 P169956 IDA-67040 20,000,000.00 20,000,000.00 IDA-67030 20,000,000.00 20,000,000.00 Total 90,000,000.00 90,000,000.00 DPF Options P169956 Crisis or Post Conflict No Regular Deferred Drawdown Option No Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option Yes Sub-National Lending No Special Development Policy Lending No CLIENTS Operation ID Borrower/Recipient Implementing Agency i The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT P165220 Ministry of Finance P169956 Ministry of Finance Ministry of Finance PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE Program Development Objective The development objective is to support the GoSVG in: (i) responding to the COVID-19 pandemic to protect the vulnerable; (ii) strengthening fiscal resilience; and (iii) enhancing climate and disaster resilience. @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@icrdpfseriesfinancing#doctemplate FINANCING Original Amount Revised Amount Actual Disbursed Financing Source Operation in series (US$) (US$) (US$) World Bank Financing 120,000,000.00 120,000,000.00 120,000,000.00 IDA-69370 P169956 50,000,000.00 50,000,000.00 50,000,000.00 IDA-67040 P169956 20,000,000.00 20,000,000.00 20,000,000.00 IDA-67030 P169956 20,000,000.00 20,000,000.00 20,000,000.00 IDA-64170 P165220 30,000,000.00 30,000,000.00 30,000,000.00 Total 120,000,000.00 120,000,000.00 120,000,000.00 KEY DATES P169956 Concept Review 14-Jul-2019 Decision Review 30-Apr-2020 Approval 24-Jun-2020 Effectiveness 22-Jul-2020 Original Closing 29-Jun-2023 Actual Closing @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@icrdpfratings#doctemplate RATINGS SUMMARY Overall Outcome Relevance of Prior Actions Achievement of Objectives (Efficacy) Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory ii The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT Bank Performance Satisfactory iii The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT ADM STAFF At ICR Practice Manager Cary Anne Cadman Regional Director Benoit Bosquet Global Director Valerie Hickey Practice Group Vice President Juergen Voegele Country Director Lilia Burunciuc Regional Vice President Carlos Felipe Jaramillo ADM Responsible Team Leader David MacWilliam Co-Team Leader(s) Keren Carla Charles At Approval of P165220 Practice Manager Jorge A. de Thompson R. Araujo Global Director Marcello de Moura Estevao Filho Practice Group Vice President Ceyla Pazarbasioglu Country Director Tahseen Sayed Khan Regional Vice President Axel van Trotsenburg ADM Responsible Team Leader David MacWilliam Co-Team Leader(s) Ana Luisa Gomes Lima At Approval of P169956 Practice Manager Valerie Hickey Regional Director Anna Wellenstein Global Director Karin Kemper Practice Group Vice President Juergen Voegele Country Director Tahseen Sayed Khan Regional Vice President J. Humberto Lopez Page 1 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT ADM Responsible Team Leader David MacWilliam Co-Team Leader(s) Keren Carla Charles I. PROGRAM CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES 1. The Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit (DPC) was designed as a programmatic series of two Development Policy Financing (DPF) operations for Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) and was the World Bank’s first DPF engagement in the country. The first operation, P165220, was approved on June 5, 2019, and became effective on July 16, 2019. The second operation, P169956, which was approved on June 25, 2020, and became effective on July 23, 2020, was originally planned as a multi-sectoral DPF operation, with the Bank pursuing a Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option (Cat DDO) operation in parallel. However, with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic coinciding with the preparation of these operations, they were combined into a single operation to reduce the administrative burden on the government. The design of the second operation was adjusted to reflect the impact of COVID-19-related closures on SVG’s economy along with the institutional capacity limitations posed by pandemic response efforts. In April 2021, as the COVID-19 crisis was starting to wind down, La Soufrière volcano, an active volcano on Saint Vincent started erupting causing extensive destruction. The Cat-DDO was disbursed and a supplemental financing operation for the second DPC, P176822, was approved on June 25, 2021, to meet the unanticipated financing needs that arose from this disaster. A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Country Context 2. SVG is a middle-income, tourism-based, small island economy heavily reliant on its natural environment and highly vulnerable to natural disasters. The country’s marine and coastal ecosystems provide a wide array of economic goods and services such as fishing, tourism and recreation that support livelihoods. SVG’s natural assets are crucial for sustenance of fauna, erosion prevention, and coastal protection. They also play a pivotal role in reducing the country’s vulnerability to natural disasters such as hurricanes and tropical storms, which pose the greatest risk of physical damage and economic disruption. SVG is also prone to volcanic activity, earthquakes, tsunamis, and occasional floods independent of storm events. In recent years, an increase in the frequency and severity of such events has disrupted livelihoods and economic production, destroyed physical infrastructure, and imposed high costs for reconstruction and rehabilitation. Notable examples include heavy rains in December 2013, and October/November 2016 that resulted in extensive physical damage and economic losses estimated at 15 percent and 5 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) respectively, and the volcanic eruptions of April 2021 that forced the evacuation of over 20 percent of the population. 3. Economic activity and infrastructure in SVG are concentrated along the coast, with a significant portion of the country’s population living in low‐lying coastal areas. More than 90 percent of SVG’s physical infrastructure which is imperative for emergency response (e.g., roads, airports, telecommunication networks) lies on a narrow coastal belt less than eight meters above sea‐level and is highly susceptible to extreme weather events. The impact of these events, which are becoming more intense due to climate change on such infrastructure and SVG’s economy more broadly, have been magnified by unsustainable practices such as poorly planned coastal development and protection, uncontrolled sand mining, land‐based and marine pollution, and overfishing, which have also eroded the country’s natural assets. High dependence on tourism and the natural environment coupled with exposure to hydrometeorological and geophysical hazards have exacerbated SVG’s physical and economic vulnerability and limited the country’s fiscal space due to increased emergency response needs coupled with loss in revenues. Additionally, damages to productive infrastructure due to recurring natural disasters have increased fiscal pressures, leading to rising debt levels. Page 2 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT 4. Leading up to this DPC series, the Government of SVG (GoSVG) had embarked on a series of policy reforms to improve its fiscal position, enhance blue growth prospects, and strengthen climate resilience. On the fiscal front, it was pursuing reforms in expenditure control and tax policy to generate higher revenues and create fiscal buffers, as well as in the governance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to enhance transparency and improve oversight. In the years leading up to these operations, the GoSVG had achieved primary fiscal balance surpluses despite investing in large public investment projects such as a new international airport. In addition, it was implementing a Medium‐Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) that was developed in conjunction with the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB)1. These efforts were expected to enable further fiscal consolidation and strengthen the resilience of SVG’s medium‐term fiscal framework (MTFF) to maintain primary fiscal balances and reduce public debt. Alongside fiscal measures, the GoSVG was undertaking a set of reforms to ensure sustainable use of natural resources while unlocking growth from SVG’s coastal and marine assets. It was also seeking to limit the impact of natural disasters, particularly hurricanes, on its physical and natural environment and enhance its resilience to these shocks by strengthening land use planning and building standards. These efforts were meant to protect people and livelihoods and alleviate fiscal pressures by reducing post-disaster relief and reconstruction costs. Sector Context 5. At the time of appraisal of the first DPC, SVG was experiencing low growth with improvements in tourism infrastructure expected to moderately accelerate growth over the medium‐term. Closure of the largest mainland hotel in the country in late 2016 took a toll on SVG’s tourism sector, slowing growth throughout 2017. Growth picked up moderately in 2018, to 2.0 percent, with higher tourist arrivals following the opening of the new Argyle International Airport, and the scheduling of new direct international flights. A decline in the import of capital goods with the completion of the new airport along with an increase in exports of agricultural products to regional markets helped narrow SVG’s current account deficit (CAD) compared to preceding years. However, being a small island state, the country remained highly import dependent with the CAD amounting to 17.2 percent of GDP in 2017, a large portion of which was being financed by foreign direct investment (FDI) together with tourism receipts and remittances. 2 The Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU), of which SVG is a member, was effective in maintaining a low inflation rate averaging around 2.0 percent annually. Real GDP growth was projected to rise to 2.1 percent in 2019 and 2.5 percent over the medium‐term, driven largely by an increase in tourist arrivals due to improved air connectivity and the planned reopening of Saint Vincent’s largest hotel. 6. Debt was on a downward trajectory, but the country was at a high risk of debt distress. At appraisal, SVG’s fiscal deficit had been reduced and the primary budget surplus sustained over preceding years.3 In 2018, debt had fallen to 73.0 percent of GDP after peaking in 2016 at 82.9 percent of GDP because of public financing for the Argyle airport and post‐ disaster reconstruction. While this put SVG on a clear trajectory towards the public debt target of 60 percent of GDP set by ECCU for 2030, low growth and recurrent natural disasters posed risks. 7. Despite the substantial risks, SVG’s macroeconomic policy framework was deemed adequate at appraisal. The projected improvement in growth over the short- and medium-term, consistently low inflation, and the GoSVG’s commitment to reduce debt to sustainable levels provided a sound macroeconomic outlook for the country. Furthermore, continued efforts on the fiscal front to generate higher revenues and maintain primary budget surpluses were expected to build fiscal buffers to natural disasters and other shocks, support further consolidation, and strengthen fiscal resilience. The key economic indicators at the time of appraisal are provided in Annex 5. 1 SVG is a member of the ECCU and its monetary policy and bank supervision are managed by the ECCB. 2 Net FDI amounted to 12.5 percent of GDP in 2018 and was concentrated in the tourism sector. Tourism receipts exceed 25 percent of GDP in a typical year. 3 The GoSVG incurred a fiscal deficit of 0.5 percent of GDP in 2017 (including grants) and 2.0 percent in 2018. The primary balance showed a similar trend, with a 1.9 percent of GDP surplus in 2017 and 0.6 percent in 2018. Page 3 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT Rationale for Bank Assistance 8. The fiscal resilience and climate and disaster resilience agendas are inextricably linked in small island states like SVG whose economies rely heavily on the natural environment and are highly vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change. This two-operation programmatic DPC series was designed to support the GoSVG’s concerted efforts to build fiscal resilience through strengthened fiscal policy and public financial management (PFM), and to enhance the country’s resilience to natural disasters and climate change. The National Economic and Social Development Plan (NESDP) 2013-2025, which outlines the GoSVG’s development vision and strategy, includes specific mutually reinforcing and complementary actions related to (i) maintaining strong macroeconomic fundamentals; (ii) enhancing accountability and efficiency in public goods and services provision; (iii) preparing for, responding to, and mitigating disasters; (iv) conserving natural resources; (v) ensuring a clean, and safe environment; and (vi) reducing the adverse impacts of climate change, which are intended to enable SVG to attain these priorities. In addition, the GoSVG had developed a Climate Change Policy and a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) to strengthen its climate resilience. Finally, having made significant strides in enhancing its disaster readiness capabilities in the preceding two decades, SVG also had a well-established legal and institutional framework for managing disaster risks. Disaster preparedness and response, including responses to health emergencies, were implemented under the authority of the National Emergency and Disaster Management (NEDM) Act No. 15 of 2006, the Emergency Powers Act No. 45 of 1970, and the Natural Disaster (Relief) Act of 1947, through the National Emergency Management Organization. Nevertheless, SVG’s legal, institutional and policy frameworks governing disaster risk management (DRM) had a strong orientation to disaster preparedness, response and recovery, and lesser emphasis on disaster risk prevention and ex-ante risk reduction and financing. Establishing a robust climate and disaster risk management system required additional policy measures that facilitate disaster risk prevention and financing and strengthen emergency preparedness at the sectoral levels, some of which were supported through this program. This DPC series was designed to support the GoSVG in advancing actions related to enhancing fiscal and climate resilience from the NESDP in an integrated manner and mainstream climate and disaster resilience into its broader development agenda. 9. This program was well aligned with the 2018 Performance and Learning Review (PLR) of the Regional Partnership Strategy (RPS) for the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) for the period FY15-19. This DPC series directly reflected the RPS’ enhanced goal to deepen policy and institutional reform engagement on macro‐fiscal issues, the blue economy, and environmental resilience through budget support operations in IDA-eligible countries and technical assistance and advisory services in IBRD countries. It drew on several key lessons learned from the PLR, including the need for (i) the Bank to play a more active role in strengthening resilience-building across broader macro-fiscal, financial and climatic-resilience dimensions; (ii) enhancing policy engagement in SVG with a strong emphasis on resilience building to produce long-term dividends; and (iii) employing more selectivity, consolidation, and less complexity in Bank-supported interventions given the severe capacity constraints in small island states. As the first DPF operation extended to SVG and given the capacity constraints, the preparation of this operation required deeper stakeholder consultations and greater Bank support through knowledge sharing and technical assistance (TA). 10. A programmatic approach was chosen to develop a sequenced and coherent reform program to ensure adequate follow-up and implementation. It comprised two intertwined pillars focused on fiscal resilience, and climate and disaster resilience and included measures to increase fiscal space, create fiscal buffers, improve PFM, promote growth in blue economy sectors (nature‐based tourism and fisheries), and strengthen the resilience of SVG’s physical and natural environment to shocks. Built on extensive upstream policy engagement with SVG in previous years in the areas of infrastructure resilience, PFM, and fiscal and budget management, this programmatic approach was deemed necessary to reinforce the effective implementation of supported reforms, and to enable the Bank to provide technical support to the GoSVG in designing and implementing the policy reforms. 4 Furthermore, in addition to supporting policy reforms to 4Substantive TA was provided in support of reforms related to procurement, SOE oversight, contingency fund creation and management, and taxation as well as for designing the national business plan for aquaculture development. Page 4 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT increase SVG’s resilience to natural disasters, the second DPC operation in the series was combined with a Cat DDO to provide quick‐disbursing financing to SVG in the immediate aftermath of a natural disaster. This was meant to complement the GoSVG’s other financing options that help transfer risks from disasters and other shocks rather than relying primarily on debt, thus augmenting its financial capacity to respond to such emergencies and limiting their impact on the overall fiscal space.5 11. The Cat DDO was included in the second operation to facilitate and simplify the planning, design, and negotiations around the two credits. There was considerable discussion around incorporating the Cat DDO into the second operation, both within the team, with Bank management, and with the GoSVG. In the end, it was decided to proceed with a single operation with two separate credits, rather than two individual operations. This was predicated on the fact that the COVID-19 pandemic impinged on the authorities’ time and attention in an environment of already limited capacity, and the attendant advantages associated with the ability to design and implement a more coherent and integrated single operation. In this respect, combining the two operations allowed for a single undertaking that led to greater coherence across pillars and a more sequenced and coordinated program of reforms. 12. Supplemental financing of US$50 million was provided after the April 2021 volcanic eruptions. Given the significant need for fiscal resources to respond to both the humanitarian needs of the disaster as well as recovery, rehabilitation, and reconstruction demands, a supplementary financing operation was seen as the most appropriate vehicle to provide rapid financing that could be accessed by the GoSVG relatively quickly. Having to simultaneously manage the demands emanating from the COVID-19 pandemic, the GoSVG had limited capacity to implement additional reforms that would have to accompany a new DPF series. Furthermore, the authorities were continuing to implement the reform program supported by this operational series and the macroeconomic framework continued to be adequate. Original Program Development Objective(s) (PDO) (as approved) The Program Development Objectives were to support the GoSVG in: (i) strengthening fiscal policy and public financial management; and (ii) strengthening climate resilience and adaptation. Original Policy Areas/Pillars supported by the Program (as approved) In line with the PDO, the series supported the following policy areas: • Pillar 1: Strengthening Fiscal Policy and Public Financial Management (PFM): Reforms under this policy area focused on creating the necessary fiscal space through both revenue and expenditure measures to maintain primary budget surpluses and build fiscal buffers to improve fiscal resilience. The package of reforms aimed to address issues related to: budget planning; the creation of fiscal buffers and fiscal rules; spending effectiveness and efficiency; domestic resource mobilization; and strengthening SOE oversight to tackle contingent liabilities and transfers. While these reforms are relatively typical PFM-related reforms, in the context of a highly vulnerable small island state such reforms are even more relevant given the need to strengthen resilience to climate and other natural disasters shocks. Hence, the reforms in Pillar 1 should be viewed in the context of the broader program and supportive of the other pillars focused more directly on resilience. • Pillar 2: Strengthening climate resilience and adaptation: Reforms under this policy area focused on enhancing the resilience of SVG’s physical infrastructure and natural environment to reduce the country’s vulnerability to natural disasters and resultant recovery costs, as well as promoting sustainable practices to protect coastal and marine ecosystems. The package of reforms comprised measures related to: land use planning and building codes; reduction in coastal sand mining; ocean governance and coastal and marine spatial planning; phase out of single-use plastic bags and 5For example, SVG is a member of the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) with insurance coverage that provides rapid financing for disaster relief. SVG has already received multiple payouts under the CCRIF and continues to benefit from coverage. Page 5 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT standards for effluent discharges; strengthening the financial and institutional capacity of the Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Conservation Fund (SVGCF); and improving management of the fisheries and aquaculture sector. B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION 13. Starting in 2019, the need to direct substantive public investment towards the modernization of the 50-year- old Port of Kingstown had considerable implications for SVG’s fiscal deficit over the medium -term. As the main seaport of entry into SVG, the Port of Kingstown is a strategic national asset critical to economic development. The aging port had far exceeded its original design life of 30 years, with structural defects rendering some sections unusable and making operations inefficient and unsafe. In addition to the urgency of restoring the port’s structural integrity to ensure safe operations, there was also a need to address traffic congestion at the port from an increase in cruise arrivals that was expected to be aggravated by the return of break bulk and container cargo to the port. With its suboptimal operations negatively impacting border security, trade, economic efficiency, and ultimately its earning potential, the port needed immediate modernization amounting to US$185 million. Work on the port commenced in 2019 financed through loans from the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) and grants from the United Kingdom and is expected to be completed by 2025. Modernizing the port represented a public investment of more than 20 percent of SVG’s GDP, given the size of the small island economy. Even though the need for this expenditure was anticipated, its scale, especially in comparison to the overall budget presented a short-term fiscal challenge. 14. The COVID-19 pandemic caused further significant economic, social, and fiscal stress to SVG. The tourism sector, which accounted for approximately 25 percent of SVG’s GDP and nearly 50 percent of total exports pre -pandemic, came to a standstill, resulting in significant job losses and reduced income for many households. A sizable increase in government spending was needed to control the spread of COVID-19, provide medical care to infected people, and mitigate the impacts of productivity loss due to containment measures. In March 2020, the GoSVG announced a fiscal stimulus package which supported increased healthcare expenditure, waived value-added tax (VAT) and duties on health and hygiene products, provided relief to the hardest hit sectors (i.e., tourism, transport, and agriculture), broadened social safety nets, and deferred payment of personal income taxes and various license fees. A decline in revenue owing to the reduction in economic activity, and tax relief combined with increased expenditures on measures to alleviate the health-related and socioeconomic impacts of the pandemic further compounded SVG’s fiscal deficit and public debt, emphasizing the need for strengthening fiscal resilience and the creation of fiscal buffers. 15. In April 2021, the La Soufrière volcano, started a series of explosive eruptions that led to extensive economic and humanitarian impacts. An estimated 22,800 persons (about 21 percent of the population) were displaced and damage to agriculture, fisheries, and forests in the high-exposure zones around the volcano amounted to 90 to 100 percent in losses. With the agriculture sector contributing around 10 percent of SVG’s GDP and with over 40 percent of the country’s agricultural output produced in the affected areas, the disaster significantly not only affected the island’s food security and livelihoods, but also the overall economy at a time when the GoSVG was still managing the economic fallout of COVID-19. Cumulatively, the eruption generated an estimated gross financing needs of US$175 million (23 percent of the GDP) in 20216. While the GoSVG remained committed to the implementation of the reform program supported under this DPC series, the volcanic eruption posed significant challenges to continued policy implementation and medium-term results. Revised Program Development Objectives (PDOs) The revised program development objectives in the second operation were to support the GoSVG in: (i) responding to the COVID-19 pandemic to protect the vulnerable; (ii) strengthening fiscal resilience; and (iii) enhancing climate and disaster resilience. The additional COVID-19 objective was included in the second operation in the DPC series to recognize and 6 International Monetary Fund: IMF Country Report No. 21/157. Page 6 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT support the GoSVG’s efforts to protect the vulnerable during the COVID-19 pandemic. The revised program objective also reflects the inclusion of a Cat DDO by adding “enhancing . . . disaster resilience” as the third program objective. Revised Policy Areas/Pillars supported by the Program 16. The pillars from the first operation were restructured to accommodate a new pillar focused on COVID-19 response under the second operation. As the first pillar under DPC2, this pillar supported select measures and programs instituted by the GoSVG to protect the vulnerable from the social and economic impacts of the pandemic and included new results indicators related to these interventions. The first pillar from DPC1 became Pillar 2 in DPC2. The targets for two results indicators under this pillar were revised to reflect the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the port modernization project. Pillar 2 from DPC1 was converted to Pillar 3 in DPC2 and revised to reflect the Cat DDO financing instrument. Under this pillar, six results indicators were revised, one results indicator was dropped, and a new results indicator was added to accommodate changes in the scope of associated reforms and/or impact of the pandemic. Changes related to results indicators and targets are described in the subsequent section. II. ASSESSMENT OF KEY PROGRAM DESIGN AND OUTCOMES 17. This programmatic DPC series’ design and outcomes are rated Satisfactory. The policy areas under both operations in the series were consistent with the Program’s stated objectives. The implementation of this comprehensive package of policies enabled the GoSVG to effectively respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, strengthen fiscal resilience, and increase resilience to climate and disaster-related shocks. Despite COVID-19-related constraints and the considerable humanitarian and financial challenges imposed by the volcanic eruption, the GoSVG remained committed to the reform agenda and progress was achieved across most results indicators (Table 1). The Program facilitated rapid mobilization of urgently needed financing that enabled the GoSVG to efficiently respond to two overlapping crises and protect vulnerable population groups. It was also successful in bringing about institutional change, ensuring that outcomes are sustained in the long-term. Key achievements on the fiscal side include the establishment of a fiscal responsibility framework (FRF) institutionalizing fiscal discipline, strengthening of fiscal buffers, increasing domestic revenue mobilization, and in the aggregate placing the public debt trajectory on a more sustainable path. The series also enabled the GoSVG to make significant strides in protecting the country’s natural environment as well as physical assets. Some noteworthy outcomes include addressing key drivers of coastal and marine degradation and pollution through cessation of coastal sand mining in most locations and a significant reduction in the use of single-use plastic bags and food containers; and improving the quality and safety of the built environment through full compliance of all new buildings with climate resilient building design standards. Table 1. Summary of Program Achievement ACHIEVED AND PARTIALLY OBJECTIVE AND PILLAR ACHIEVED NOT ACHIEVED TOTAL EXCEEDED ACHIEVED Responding to COVID-19 to Results Indicator 1 protect the vulnerable Results Indicator 2 3 (Pillar 1) Results Indicator 3 Strengthening Fiscal Results Indicator 6 Results Indicator 5 Results Indicator 4 4 Resilience (Pillar 2) Results Indicator 7 Results Indicator 10 Enhancing Climate and Results Indicator 8 Results Indicator 11 Results Indicator 12 7 Disaster Resilience (Pillar 3) Results Indicator 9 Results Indicator 14 Results Indicator 13 Total 3 4 3 4 14 Page 7 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT Table 2. Programmatic DPC Series Prior Actions and Results Indicative Triggers (from DPF1) and Prior Actions for DPF1 Results Indicators (original (DPF1) and revised) Prior Actions for DPF2 PILLAR 1: Responding to COVID-19 to protect the vulnerable Result Indicator 1 (New): Number of beneficiaries who received program support. Baseline (January 2020): 0 Target (June 2021): 1,400 Actual (June 2021): 2,190 Current status (2023): N/A Program ended in 2021. Prior Action 1: Approval of a supplementary income program for displaced hotel and other affected workers Assessment: Achieved and Exceeded for up to three months and including support to taxi, water taxi and tour operators affected by the Percentage females: cancellation of cruise ships. Baseline: 0 Target (June 2021): 45 percent Actual (June 2021): 57.4 percent Current (2023): N/A Program ended in 2021. Assessment: Achieved and Exceeded Change: This was a new results indicator added to the second operation. Result Indicator 2 (New): Number of beneficiaries who received program support. Baseline (January 2020): 0 Prior Action 2: Approved a support program for small Target (December 2021): 400 businesses and cultural workers, as well as a direct Actual (December 2021): 5,964 support program for farmers and individuals engaged in Current status (2023): N/A Program ended in 2021. the fishing sector. Assessment: Achieved and Exceeded Change: This was a new results indicator added to the second operation. Page 8 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT Result Indicator 3 (New): Number of beneficiaries who received Prior Action 3: The National Insurance Service has prepayments, TUB benefits, and IAB support. approved a pre-payment program of pension benefits to pensioners and a Temporary Unemployment Benefit Baseline (January 2020): 0 (TUB) designed to provide relief to employees who Target (June 2021): 3,500 have directly lost income as a result of the effects of Actual (June 2021): 3,576 the pandemic and the government has approved a Current status (2023): N/A Program ended in 2021. program of Interim Assistance Benefits (IAB) for vulnerable citizens who are neither pensioners nor Assessment: Achieved and Exceeded social welfare beneficiaries. Change: This was a new results indicator added to the second operation. PILLAR 2: Strengthening Fiscal Resilience Result Indicator 4: Public debt convergence to the ECCU target of 60 percent of GDP by 2030. Prior Action 4: The Recipient, through its Parliament, Prior Action 1: The Recipient, has approved a Parliamentary Fiscal Responsibility Baseline (2017): 73.5 percent through its Cabinet of Ministers, Resolution that outlines declaratory fiscal responsibility Target (December 2020): 84.4 percent has required the annual principles, and sets targets for spending, fiscal balances Actual (December 2020): 84.9 percent preparation of a medium‐term and public debt levels. [Trigger 1 in DPF1] Current status (2023): 85.7 percent fiscal framework (MTFF), and related timetable for its Assessment: Partially achieved preparation, that sets fiscal policy Change: The baseline was adjusted from 76.4 percent in the first targets to anchor the fiscal account operation to 73.5 percent in the second to reflect data revisions. The on a sustainable path. Change: Minor wording adjustments to the prior target was adjusted upward from 72 percent to 84.4 percent to action. reflect the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the decision to proceed with the port modernization project. Result Indicator 5: Analysis of government-wide procurement spending published by MOF. Prior Action 2: The Recipient, through the House of Assembly, Prior Action 5: The Recipient will adopt procurement Baseline (2017): No analysis has approved a revised Public regulations in support of, and as required by, the new Target (2020): Analysis completed and published (Yes) Procurement Act, which is aligned Public Procurement Act. [Trigger 3 in DPF1] Actual (2020): Yes with international good practice. Current status (2023): Analysis completed but not published (No). Assessment: Achieved Page 9 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT Result Indicator 6: Revenue from taxes on income and profits. Prior Action 3: The Recipient, Baseline (2017): EC$151 million Prior Action 6: The Recipient, through its Parliament, through its Minister of Finance, has Target (2020): EC$150 million has approved a revised Tax Administration Act aimed at submitted to the House of Actual (2020): EC$143 million increasing transparency, consistency, and increasing Assembly, amendments to the Current status (2023): EC$152.13 million domestic resource mobilization by facilitating Income Tax Act aimed at addressing compliance. [Trigger 4 in DPF1] transfer pricing issues. Assessment: Not achieved Change: The target was adjusted downward from EC$165 million to EC$150 million to reflect the impact of the pandemic on revenues. Indicative Trigger 5: The Recipient, through its Cabinet of Ministers, will strengthen SOE oversight by Result Indicator 7: Analysis of the performance of commercial SOEs Prior Action 4: The Recipient, approving a broader SOE reporting framework, published. through its Cabinet of Ministers, including the creation of a Monitoring and Oversight has issued an order mandating Committee and the definition of its composition, Baseline (2017): 0 quarterly and annual financial mandate, roles and responsibilities. Target (2020): 1 reporting standards and Change: This trigger was dropped as it was already Actual (2020): 0 requirements for State Owned completed and deemed unnecessary to include as a Current status (2023): 0 Enterprises (SOEs). prior action in the second operation. As per this trigger, an SOE oversight committee was established, which Assessment: Not achieved was meant to meet regularly, and publish its reports. PILLAR 3: Enhancing Climate and Disaster Resilience Result Indicator 8: Volume of domestically mined coastal sand reduced. Prior Action 5: The Recipient, Baseline (2018): 35,370 m3 through its Cabinet of Ministers, Target (2021): 0 m3 has adopted a partial ban of coastal Actual (2021): 29,734.7 m3 Prior Action 7: The Recipient, through its Cabinet, has sand mining and has established a Current status (2023): 40,230 m3 adopted a time-based phase out of coastal sand mining monitoring mechanism for throughout the national territory. [Trigger 8 in DPF1] remaining active sites, to gradually Assessment: Partially achieved implement a sand mining ban and Change: The indicator was revised to note that the original target of increase coastal resilience. 17,685 m3 (i.e., 50 percent reduction in sand mining) is now a milestone for 2020, with a final target of zero (i.e., 100 percent reduction in coastal sand mining) for 2021 based on cessation of sand mining at all four beaches. The latter being a new target. Page 10 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT Result Indicator from DPF 1 (dropped): Priority Pollution Watch Indicative Trigger 10: The Recipient has adopted Sites (PPWS) regularly monitored, and monitoring results publicly national regulatory standards for effluent discharges, disclosed. including minimum sewage effluent guidelines and a monitoring program for Priority Pollution Watch Sites Baseline (2018): No PPWS regularly monitored. (PPWS). Target (2020) (From DPF1): 3 PPWS regularly monitored. Prior Action 6: The Recipient, Change: This trigger was dropped as given capacity Change: This result indicator was dropped given the trigger was through its Cabinet of Ministers, constraints it was not possible to complete this action. dropped. has approved the National Oceans Result Indicator 9: Imported single‐use plastic bags reduced. Policy and Strategic Action Plan, Prior Action 8: The Recipient, through its Minister of with a view to enhancing benefits Health, Wellness, and the Environment, has phased out Baseline (2017): 453.4 tons from the marine environment to the importing, distribution and use of single-use plastic Target (2021): 0 sustainable development, and has bags and plastic food service containers to reduce Actual (2021): Not available created the National Ocean waste generation and marine pollution. [Trigger 9 in Current status (2023): Not available Coordinating Committee, to DPF1] strengthen its capacity for ocean Assessment: Partially achieved governance and coastal and marine Change: The original trigger from DPC1 was intended to spatial planning. support a complete phase out of the use of plastic bags. However, the GoSVG’s phase-out plan was in two Change: Minor edits to the formulation of this results indicator (was stages: 1. the phasing out of plastic bag imports; and 2. ‘Imported single-use plastic bags reduced by 2/3’ in DPC1). Revision the phasing out of plastic bag usage. Additionally, the of target from 151 tons by 2020 to 0 tons by 2021. GoSVG went beyond the scope of the original trigger and extended the phase out to plastic food service containers as well. Prior Action 7: The Recipient, Result Indicator 10: Increase in number of Saint Vincent and the through the Board of the SVGCF Grenadines Conservation Fund’s sustainable revenue sources. has: (a) by amending its by‐laws, strengthened SVGCF for financing Baseline (2018): 0 and implementing environmental Target (2021): 2 management, ecosystems Actual (2021): 2 conservation and climate resilience Current status (2023): 2 initiatives, including projects targeting women and girls, and (b) Assessment: Achieved has signed a Partnership Agreement with the Caribbean Change: The target date was revised from 2020 to 2021. Biodiversity Fund (CBF) to increase revenue generation for SVGCF. Page 11 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT Result Indicator 11: Number of aquaculture business plans prepared. Prior Action 8: The Recipient, Indicative Trigger 11: The Recipient has adopted a Baseline (2018): 0 through its Cabinet of Ministers, national aquaculture business plan, with special Target (2021): 2 has adopted the National Fisheries activities targeting youth and women, to promote a Actual (2021): 0 and Aquaculture Policy for sustainable seafood industry and reduce overfishing. Current status (2023): 0 improving management, sustainable use and development Assessment: Not achieved of fisheries and aquaculture Change: This trigger was dropped, as again, given Change: The original indicator from DPC1 ‘Number of private -public resources and related ecosystems. capacity constraints and competing demands, it was partnerships implementing sustainable aquaculture projects’ was not possible to complete this action. dropped and replaced with a more modest indicator after considering COVID-19-related constraints. Result Indicator 12: Level of funds in the contingencies fund. Baseline (2017): No funds Milestone (2020): EC$30 million Prior Action 9: The Recipient, through its Cabinet, has Target (2022): EC$50 million approved regulations for the operation of the Actual (2022): EC$39.301 million (recapitalized amount following contingencies fund. [Trigger 2 in DPF1] complete disbursement of funds made for volcanic eruptions ) Current status (2023): EC$46.501 million Assessment: Achieved Change: This action was included as a trigger under Pillar 1 of DPC1. It was moved to Pillar 3 of the second Change: The target was revised with the original target included as operation as a prior action since it directly relates to a milestone for 2020 and a more ambitious target for 2022. disaster risk financing and complements the Cat DDO. It has also been revised to refer to approval by Cabinet. Prior Action 10: The Recipient, through its Minister, has Result Indicator 13: Share of permit applications for new buildings adopted revised Building Regulations in the Town and approved in compliance with the updated building codes guidelines. Country Planning Act relating to the enforcement and application of OECS Building Codes to strengthen Baseline (2018): 0 percent resilience to natural disasters. [Trigger 6 in DPF1] Target (2022): 100 percent Actual (2022): 100 percent Change: This action was included as a trigger in DPC1 Current status (2023): 100 percent and was slightly reworded. Assessment: Achieved Page 12 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT Indicative Trigger 7: The Recipient has complemented the Town and Country Planning Act with mandatory provisions on Environmental Impact Assessment, subdivisions of land, and display of advertisement, to strengthen land use and development planning with a Change: The target date was revised from 2020 to 2022. view to increasing climate resilience and coastal protection. Change: This indicative trigger was dropped as it was not possible to complete this action. Prior Action 11: The Recipient, through its Cabinet, has Result Indicator 14 (New): Number of schools used as emergency approved the School Safety Policy to enhance physical, shelters that have completed comprehensive disaster management environmental and social protection levels at education plans and submitted to the Ministry of Education. facilities. Baseline (2019): 11.1 percent [5/45] Change: This action was new and is directly related to Target (2022): 44.40 percent [20/45] Actual (2022): 10.41 percent [5/48] the Cat DDO financing instrument. A new indicator has Current status (2023): 12.96 percent [7/54] been included to reflect this action. Assessment: Not achieved Page 13 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT A. RELEVANCE OF PRIOR ACTIONS Rating: Satisfactory 18. The relevance of the Prior Actions (PAs) in contributing to the achievement of the PDO(s) is rated Satisfactory given their strong and direct link to the PDO(s). As the first DPC engagement in SVG comprising multi-sectoral reforms, the overall reform program was ambitious. The design of the two operations drew on Bank experience in the sub-region, which highlights the importance of a comprehensive approach to resilience building in small island states due to the multi- sectoral nature of this agenda. It also responded to the need for a coordinated operation that reduces transaction costs associated with preparing and supporting multiple parallel reforms, due to capacity constraints. Moreover, the two operations were structured to build on and complement efforts by the Bank and other development partners including the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre, Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency, CBD, etc. to provide financial and technical assistance to SVG and build the GoSVG’s institutional capacity on PFM, fiscal sustainability, procurement, disaster risk financing (DRF), and climate change issues. Notable examples of Bank TA include support for developing the FRF, transfer pricing reforms, the Public Procurement Act, the contingencies fund operating guidelines, and the national business plan for aquaculture development. The GoSVG was therefore considered to be well positioned to implement this reform program. 19. Prior Actions under Pillar 1 were selected to ensure that financial relief was directed to the households and businesses most directly affected by the pandemic, given available resources. Travel restrictions, closure of schools and non-essential services, and social distancing measures instituted by the GoSVG along with regional and global COVID-19 containment actions had far-reaching social and economic impacts in SVG. Effects on the tourism sector were particularly acute, with the closure of the Argyle International Airport and the cessation of cruise ship travel affecting a substantive proportion of the population engaged in this sector. Additionally, allied sectors and activities such as agriculture, fisheries, arts, crafts, and cultural events were also significantly affected. Together, these affected sectors engage a large portion of the vulnerable population, including women who experienced a substantial loss in income and earning potential. Prior Actions under this pillar supported specific measures and programs introduced by the GoSVG to alleviate the economic and social impacts of the crisis on the low-income and vulnerable individuals and households. 20. The package of reforms supported under Pillar 2 comprised both revenue and expenditure measures that would help maintain primary budget surpluses while building fiscal buffers. Prior Actions supporting expenditure-related measures focused on budget planning, creation of fiscal rules, strengthening financial oversight of SOEs, and improving spending effectiveness and efficiency by overcoming constraints in public procurement. Revenue-related measures supported under this pillar aimed to improve domestic resource mobilization by addressing transfer pricing issues, enhancing transparency, and improving tax administration. Taken together, these Prior Actions supported a coherent and coordinated set of reforms to strengthen SVG’s fiscal resilience. The fiscal measures permitted the creation of fiscal space to resource the establishment of a contingencies fund, while generating fiscal savings and safeguarding critical expenditures. 21. Reforms supported by Prior Actions under Pillar 3 were selected to facilitate the sustainable use of SVG’s natural assets and strengthen their resilience and improve the country’s emergency preparedness to contribute to the overarching goal of enhancing climate and disaster resilience. The Prior Actions supporting reforms on management of natural assets aimed to address issues related to coastal sand mining, help SVG leverage its coastal and marine assets for economic benefit while protecting critical ecosystems, increase financial resources for environmental conservation initiatives, and facilitate sustainable development of fisheries and aquaculture. The Prior Actions related to enhancing disaster risk preparedness sought to strengthen the resilience of SVG’s physical environment to natural disasters by focusing on buildings, land use planning, and the use of education facilities during emergencies. Additionally, this pillar assisted the GoSVG in enhancing DRF by supporting the operationalization of its contingencies fund and through the availability of Cat-DDO resources, both of which are ex-ante DRF instruments that can be utilized during emergencies. Page 14 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT Table 3. Contributions to the PDO PILLAR 1: Responding to COVID-19 to protect the vulnerable7 Prior Actions Contribution to PDO [DPC2] Prior Action 1: Approval of a supplementary income program for displaced This prior action alleviated the impact of unemployment and loss in earnings on hotel and other affected workers for up to individuals directly engaged in the tourism industry due to travel restrictions three months and including support to taxi, instituted during the COVID-19 crisis. water taxi and tour operators affected by the cancellation of cruise ships. [DPC2] Prior Action 2: Approved a support This prior action limited income loss and closure of small businesses during the program for small businesses and cultural pandemic and enabled individuals and households whose livelihoods were workers, as well as a direct support program threatened by the impact of the pandemic on SVG’s tourism sector to maintain for farmers and individuals engaged in the their consumption levels. fishing sector. [DPC2] Prior Action 3: The National Insurance Service has approved a pre-payment program of pension benefits to pensioners and a Temporary Unemployment Benefit (TUB) designed to provide relief to employees who This prior action reduced the financial distress of individuals and households have directly lost income as a result of the directly affected by the COVID-19 crisis, including individuals who were not on effects of the pandemic and the government public assistance or receiving a pension and therefore more vulnerable. has approved a program of Interim Assistance Benefits (IAB) for vulnerable citizens who are neither pensioners nor social welfare beneficiaries. PILLAR 2: Strengthening Fiscal Resilience [DPC1] Prior Action 1: The Recipient, through its Cabinet of Ministers, has required the annual preparation of a medium‐term fiscal framework (MTFF), and related timetable for These prior actions contributed to the establishment of fiscal and expenditure its preparation, that sets fiscal policy targets to targets and introduced fiscal discipline in budget planning processes. Having clear anchor the fiscal account on a sustainable fiscal parameters and limits to situating the budget envelope have ensured that path. SVG’s budget allocations are consistent with its overall fiscal objectives, including [DPC2] Prior Action 4: The Recipient, through reducing the debt to GDP ratio, which is key for fiscal sustainability in the long- its Parliament, has approved a Parliamentary term. Fiscal Responsibility Resolution that outlines declaratory fiscal responsibility principles, and sets targets for spending, fiscal balances, and public debt levels. [DPC1] Prior Action 2: The Recipient, through Public procurement in SVG was governed by outdated regulations, which needed the House of Assembly, has approved a revised to be overhauled. These prior actions contributed to the modernization of SVG’s Public Procurement Act, which is aligned with public procurement system in line with international best practices. The new international good practice. public procurement regulatory framework also incorporated environmental and 7The impact on poverty of these measures could not be evaluated as household survey data is not available. The latest available household survey data dates back to 2018. Page 15 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT gender considerations. The resulting improvements in procurement processes [DPC2] Prior Action 5: The Recipient will adopt along with enhanced transparency and accountability in public spending have procurement regulations in support of, and as facilitated more competition and better value for money. This has led to public required by, the new Public Procurement Act. resources being used more efficiently, which will generate fiscal savings over the medium term, while allowing for more sustainable infrastructure. [DPC1] Prior Action 3: The Recipient, through its Minister of Finance, has submitted to the Adjustments to SVG’s tax system on a tax-by-tax basis over time had created gaps House of Assembly, amendments to the and inconsistencies, as well as incoherence across various tax measures affecting Income Tax Act aimed at addressing transfer revenue collection. These prior actions helped overcome these issues by pricing issues. expanding the tax net and increasing revenue collection. They also augmented [DPC2] Prior Action 6: The Recipient, through the ability of SVG’s Inland Revenue Department to better administer all tax laws its Parliament, has approved a revised Tax ensuring efficient collection of taxes and fees and increased tax compliance. Administration Act aimed at increasing These improvements have enhanced tax revenue management and enabled transparency, consistency, and increasing mobilization of additional revenue, which is in turn helping reduce the debt to domestic resource mobilization by facilitating GDP ratio to strengthen fiscal sustainability. compliance. [DPC1] Prior Action 4: The Recipient, through its Cabinet of Ministers, has issued an order mandating quarterly and annual financial reporting standards and requirements for SVG’s SOEs debt is guaranteed by the GoSVG and reflected in the national debt State Owned Enterprises (SOEs). review. This prior action and policy trigger strengthened the GoSVG’s oversight [DPC 2] Indicative Trigger 5: The Recipient, of commercial SOEs and enhanced their financial accountability. Improved through its Cabinet of Ministers, will monitoring of the financial health of SOEs is helping GoSVG track fiscal risks strengthen SOE oversight by approving a arising from accumulation of arrears and debt, forgone tax revenue, etc. and broader SOE reporting framework, including reduce spending inefficiencies. the creation of a Monitoring and Oversight Committee and the definition of its composition, mandate, roles, and responsibilities. PILLAR 3: Enhancing Climate and Disaster Resilience [DPC1] Prior Action 5: The Recipient, through Uncontrolled mining of sand from SVG’s beaches for use as an aggregate in its Cabinet of Ministers, has adopted a partial concrete used for construction in most of the country’s public works and private ban of coastal sand mining and has established buildings had been eroding beaches and sand dunes, which are crucial for a monitoring mechanism for remaining active protecting the islands against storms as well as a key draw for tourism. Moreover, sites, to gradually implement a sand mining erosion of beaches had endangered coastal housing and infrastructure, extended ban and increase coastal resilience. salt spray into significant acreages of productive land and led to habitat loss for certain flora and fauna. These prior actions contributed to the cessation of coastal [DPC2] Prior Action 7: The Recipient, through sand mining in SVG and facilitated acquisition of sand for use in construction from its Cabinet, has adopted a time-based phase inland areas and through imports, helping curb further beach erosion. This is out of coastal sand mining throughout the aiding beach replenishment and restoration of sand dunes, which will augment national territory. the country’s natural defenses against hurricanes and storm surges and strengthen the resilience of its coastal areas. [DPC1] Prior Action 6: The Recipient, through In addition to impacts of climate change such as drought and ocean warming, its Cabinet of Ministers, has approved the SVG’s forest and marine ecosystems were threatened by community National Oceans Policy and Strategic Action modification, inadequate coastal development controls, unsustainable fishing Plan (NOPSAP), with a view to enhancing practices, and land and ship-based pollution. These prior actions strengthened benefits from the marine environment to the surveillance and oversight of SVG’s marine and coastal zones and facilitated sustainable development, and has created the the protection of its natural environment. They were crucial in reducing plastic National Ocean Coordinating Committee, to litter, which improved ecosystem health and enhanced the resilience of strengthen its capacity for ocean governance environmentally sensitive areas. and coastal and marine spatial planning. Page 16 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT [DPC2] Prior Action 8: The Recipient, through its Minister of Health, Wellness and the Environment, has phased out the importing, distribution and use of single-use plastic bags and plastic food service containers to reduce waste generation and marine pollution. [DPC1] Prior Action 7: The Recipient, through the Board of the Saint Vincent and the SVGCF was created by the GoSVG in 2015 with a core mandate of conserving and Grenadines Conservation Fund (SVGCF), has: managing biodiversity within SVG’s protected and environmentally sensitive (a) by amending its by‐laws, strengthened areas.8 However, limited institutional capacity and a lack of budgetary allocations SVGCF for financing and implementing from the GoSVG and other revenue sources hindered SVGCF from carrying out its environmental management, ecosystems mandate. This prior action strengthened SVGCF’s ability to tap into different conservation and climate resilience initiatives, revenue sources and undertake environmental conservation initiatives. This has including projects targeting women and girls, enabled SVGCF to advance efforts such as coastal habitat restoration that are and (b) has signed a Partnership Agreement crucial for SVG’s environment and people to adapt to the impacts of climate with the Caribbean Biodiversity Fund (CBF) to change. increase revenue generation for SVGCF. Overfishing had led to a sharp decline in SVG’s fish stocks by 2016. Impacts of climate change such as higher ocean temperatures, increasing acidification, and [DPC1] Prior Action 8: The Recipient, through changes in the ocean currents further exacerbated this issue by preventing full its Cabinet of Ministers, has adopted the recovery of depleted stocks. This prior action contributed to the diversification National Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy for and sustainability of SVG’s fisheries sector by advancing sustainable fisheries improving management, sustainable use and practices and aquaculture initiatives. These measures are enabling SVG to adapt development of fisheries and aquaculture to the decline in fish stocks, strengthen food security and prevent resources and related ecosystems. overexploitation of its marine environment. Over time, this will improve the adaptive capacity of fisheries‐dependent populations to cope with climate change impacts. A multi-layered approach to disaster risk financing that combines instruments such as risk insurance, contingencies fund, and contingent credit is critical for the financial resilience of small island states like SVG. This prior action [DPC2] Prior Action 9: The Recipient, through operationalized SVG’s contingencies fund, which constitutes the bottom layer of its Cabinet, has approved regulations for the its disaster risk layering strategy. The resulting effective, efficient, and operation of the contingencies fund. transparent management of the fund’s resources has enabled the GoSVG to launch a timely response to emergencies by rapidly mobilizing funds to support affected entities and prevent adverse coping actions. Damages from climate-related and geophysical disasters to SVG’s physical [DPC2] Prior Action 10: The Recipient, through infrastructure were imposing high reconstruction and rehabilitation costs on its Minister, has adopted revised Building both, the GoSVG, and private entities. This prior action strengthened the design Regulations in the Town and Country Planning standards for new buildings in SVG, thereby improving their ability to withstand Act relating to the enforcement and the impact of disasters, particularly hurricanes and earthquakes. By complying application of OECS Building Codes to with these standards, all new buildings will be resilient to natural disasters, which strengthen resilience to natural disasters will reduce the likelihood of damage. 8 SVG has designated protected status to a total of 34 areas, of which 7 are marine habitats. Page 17 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT About one fifth of SVG’s educational facilities are used as shelters during natural disasters, underscoring the need for ensuring their structural soundness and having comprehensive disaster management plans in place. This prior action [DPC2] Prior Action 11: The Recipient, through contributed to the standardization and mainstreaming of climate and disaster risk its Cabinet, has approved the School Safety management planning in SVG’s educational institutions . The resulting Policy to enhance physical, environmental and improvements to construction and maintenance standards for school buildings social protection levels at education facilities. and the introduction of safety procedures have strengthened SVG’s emergency preparedness by ensuring that these facilities and their inhabitants are protected during disasters. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF OBJECTIVES (EFFICACY) Rating: Satisfactory 22. Overall, this DPC series’ efficacy is rated as Satisfactory as the objectives of protecting the vulnerable during COVID-19, strengthening fiscal resilience and climate and disaster resilience are considered to be achieved with some shortcomings. Of the 14 results indicators (RIs), 3 exceeded their targets, 4 were fully achieved, and 3 were partially achieved. The relevance and appropriateness of most results indicators and targets are deemed adequate and well designed for capturing the series’ objectives. Nonetheless, some indicators could have been differently formulated to effectively track progress. Achievement towards targets was impressive given their ambition, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic which shut down large segments of the economy, and the scale of devastation from the 2021 volcanic eruptions. As a small island state, limited capacity was a key constraint in SVG, and associated limitations affected the achievement of some results indicators. Furthermore, at the broad macroeconomic level, the two successive external shocks caused a significant collapse in GDP, reductions in fiscal revenues, and an increased demand for services and fiscal transfers to the population, deteriorating SVG’s fiscal and debt metrics. The triggering of the Cat DDO after the volcanic eruptions and the supplemental financing provided enabled the GoSVG to support its citizens and businesses as they grappled with the aftermath of two successive crises. The Cat DDO provided immediate financial assistance to address urgent response needs, while the supplementary financing supported humanitarian activities and recovery efforts. 23. The objective of Pillar 1 “Responding to COVID-19 to protect the vulnerable” is considered fully achieved. All three RIs focused directly on responding to the pandemic and achieving this stated objective were achieved, including the additional sub-indicator under RI 1. While all three indicators exceeded their targets, RI 2 exceeded expectations by a wide margin reflecting the magnitude of the threat posed by COVID-19 to livelihoods in SVG and the need for support. The targeted measures and programs implemented by the GoSVG to alleviate the pandemic’s impact on groups with limited coping capacities that were most affected by the crisis reached a significantly higher number of individuals and households than anticipated. This was due to far-reaching impacts on the livelihoods of people engaged in relevant activities (e.g., sailors, farmers) that were not foreseen when the programs were instituted. In sum, the total number of beneficiaries accessing all programs supported under this operational series vastly exceeded expectations. 24. The objective of Pillar 2 “Strengthening Fiscal Resilience” is also considered achieved after factoring in the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the GoSVG’s fiscal position. In terms of the identified results indicators, one was fully achieved (RI 5), one was partially achieved (RI 4), and two were not achieved (RIs 6 and 7). Despite these shortcomings, with the passage of the FRF, a new procurement code and associated regulations, and a revised Tax Administration Act, along with strengthened SOE monitoring and oversight, significant and sustained progress has been made toward this objective through this series. RI 4 is considered partially achieved as performance on the public debt target was off by 0.5 percentage points of the GDP. Given the extenuating circumstances, this is a notable outcome. RI 6 (Revenue from taxes on income and profits) was not achieved despite the revised target since the decline in the GoSVG’s revenue during the COVID-19 pandemic was larger than anticipated. Finally, RI 7 (Analysis of the performance of commercial SOEs published) Page 18 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT was not achieved due to the GoSVG needing to focus its institutional resources on emergent pandemic and volcano- related needs. 25. The objective of Pillar 3 “Enhancing Climate and Disaster Resilience” is considered fully achieved. Of the seven identified results indicators, three were achieved (RIs 10, 12, and 13); two were partially achieved (RIs 8 and 9); and two were not achieved (RIs 11 and 14). Despite shortcomings on some targeted results, the considerable progress made by the GoSVG in implementing the underlying reforms ensured that the overarching objective of this pillar was met. For the results indicators that were partially achieved, the shortcomings were relatively minor. While the coastal sand mining target (RI8) of complete elimination of sand mining was not met, mining of sand has completely ceased at 3 of the 4 beaches where it was occurring, which is a very significant outcome. It is important to note that at Dripp beach, which is located at the mouth of the Rabacca River and the only beach where sand mining continues, the sand being mined primarily consists of river sediment deposits that have increased substantially since the volcanic eruptions. The GoSVG has identified measures to address the gaps associated with RI 9 (Reduction in imported single-use plastic bags) for which data availability was the key issue. The overlapping impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the volcano eruption were the main reasons behind the lack of progress on two results indicators that were not achieved (RI11 Aquaculture business plans prepared and RI13 Number of schools used as emergency shelters with DRM plans). In both these instances, the relevant government agencies had to shift their priorities to respond to these crises, which delayed the achievement of targeted results. However, they remain committed to the respective policy goals and are making concerted efforts to achieve intended results. Indeed, the GoSVG expects to make substantial progress towards RI13 by the end of 2023. Finally, the results of the three indicators that were met (RI 10 Increase in SVGCF’s funding sources, RI 12 Level of funds in the contingencies fund and RI 13 Building code compliance) have been sustained past the target date, with some agencies seeking to build on the outcomes achieved to set more ambitious goals. Relevance, Measurability of RIs, and Appropriateness of Targets RI 1: Number of beneficiaries who received program support and percentage females, where “program” refers to the supplementary income program for displaced hotel and other affected workers. [Baseline (2020): 0.0; Target (2021): 1,400 (45 percent female); Actual (2021): 2,190 (57.4 percent female); Current (2023): N/A]. Achieved and Exceeded. 26. Being a new program instituted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the baseline was zero. The program had 2,190 beneficiaries (of which 57.4 percent were female) and a total value of EC$8.005 million at its end-date of June 2021. Therefore, this result indicator is considered fully achieved. Displaced hotel workers made up over 87 percent of program beneficiaries, highlighting the disproportionate effects of COVID-19-related tourism closures on this group. Over half the displaced hotels workers who benefitted from the program being women, points to the importance of this program in supporting one of the most vulnerable groups during the crisis. The use of this indicator is considered appropriate as it was fully measurable and provided direct insight on the uptake of the program and its usage and acceptance among the population. RI 2: Number of beneficiaries who received program support, where “program” refers to the program approved for small businesses and cultural workers, as well as a direct support program for farmers and individuals engaged in the fishing sector. [Baseline (2020): 0.0; Target (2021): 400; Actual (2021): 5,964; Current (2023): N/A]. Achieved and Exceeded. 27. Again, being a new program, the baseline was zero. The program exceeded its target by a substantially wide margin with 5,964 beneficiaries and a total value of EC$6.337 million at its end-date of December 2021. As a result, this result indicator is considered fully achieved. The program beneficiaries comprised small businesses, cultural and allied workers, and farmers. Fisherfolk did not draw on this program. The significant overachievement on this results indicator is due to the large number of farmers (5000) who accessed the program, most of whom were not registered with the GoSVG when the program was established, leading to lower estimates for anticipated number of beneficiaries. This use of this indicator is also considered appropriate. Page 19 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT RI 3: Number of beneficiaries who received prepayments, TUB benefits, and IAB support. [Baseline (2020): 0.0; Target (2021): 3,500; Actual (2021): 3,576; Current (2023): N/A]. Achieved and Exceeded. 28. The actual number of beneficiaries by the program end date of June 2021 was 3,576 for a cumulative value of EC$7.52 million. Therefore, this results indicator is considered fully achieved. It is notable that sailors who were unemployed due to the cessation in cruises during the pandemic and were not contributing to the GoSVG’s pension programs were the primary beneficiaries of IAB program. RI 4: Public debt convergence to the ECCU target of 60 percent of GDP by 2030. [Baseline (2017): 73.50; Target (2020): 84.4; Actual (2020): 84.9; Current (2023): 85.7]. Partially achieved. 29. Despite the very negative impact of the pandemic on the GoSVG’s fiscal position this target was almost achieved, with public debt being 84.9 percent at end-2020 and this indicator is considered partially achieved. This results indicator was chosen with the assumption that the GoSVG’s adherence to the fiscal rules and targets set out in the FRF would reduce the debt to GDP ratio. However, the pandemic and subsequently the volcanic eruption had significant implications on the GoSVG’s fiscal space and adherence to the FRF was suspended temporarily. It is worth noting that the adoption of fiscal rules under the FRF enabled the GoSVG to create fiscal buffers required for launching an effective response to these shocks. The advisability of this indicator could therefore be questioned given the difficulty of attribution and the significant potential impact of exogenous factors beyond the GoSVG’s control on its outcome. RI5: Analysis of government-wide procurement spending published by MOF. [Baseline (2017): No; Target (2020): Yes; Actual (2020): Yes; Current (2023): No]. Achieved. 30. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) has been publishing information on contracts awarded by the GoSVG annually since 2017, with data on contracts awarded up to end-2023 available on their website. MOF has also been publishing an analysis of the GoSVG’s procurement spending since 2017, with the last analysis published in 2021. MOF indicated that such an analysis was undertaken in 2022 and 2023 but was not published and has committed to publishing the results of these analyses. Since MOF has been consistently analyzing and publishing information on the GoSVG’s procurement spending, the target is considered achieved. RI6: Revenue from taxes on income and profits. [Baseline (2017): EC$151 million; Target (2020): EC$150 million; Actual (2020): EC$143 million; Current (2023): EC$152.13 million]. Not achieved. 31. This target was lowered based on the re-evaluation of this indicator following the onset of the COVID- 19 pandemic and its anticipated impact on domestic revenue mobilization. In the end, the pandemic was much more severe and prolonged than expected and revenues fell more than previously estimated. Nonetheless, given the depth of the pandemic and the serious impact it had on the economy, performance in revenue collection remained relatively robust given the GoSVG’s efforts and the target was marginally missed. Income and profit tax receipts in 2020 totaled EC$143 million and hence the target is considered not achieved. As in the case of RI 4, the advisability of this indicator could be questioned given the significant potential impact of exogenous factors on its outcome. However, while exogenous factors can clearly influence tax receipts, this indicator is directly related to the prior action of revising the Tax Administration Act and changes in tax receipts can be attributed, at least in part, to the action supported under the series. The performance on this indicator highlights the importance of strengthening tax administration in countries with high vulnerability to shocks that could cause revenue disruptions and demonstrates how the measure supports the goal of strengthening fiscal resilience. RI7: Analysis of the performance of commercial SOEs published. [Baseline (2017): No; Target (2020): Yes; Actual (2021): No; Current (2023): No]. Not achieved. 32. Since SOE debt is guaranteed by the GoSVG and included in the public debt review, MOF sought to strengthen the oversight of the financial health of SOEs by instituting financial reporting requirements and creating the Monitoring and Oversight committee for SOEs. Currently, SOEs submit audited annual financial statements to MOF, which has a Page 20 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT representative on the board of each of the SOEs. However, MOF has not undertaken an analysis of the performance of commercial SOEs, and the Monitoring and Oversight committee is not functional. As a result, this target is considered not achieved. The debt acquired by SVG’s SOEs remains well below the EC$300 million cap established in the Loan Guarantee Act. Thus, the risk associated with SOEs was deemed to be low resulting in this effort being deprioritized in light of the GoSVG’s need to focus on other emergent priorities in the aftermath of the two crises. RI8: Volume of domestically mined coastal sand reduced. [Baseline (2018): 35,370 m3; Target (2021): 0.0; Actual (2021): 29,734.7 m3; Current (2023) 40,230 m3:]. Partially achieved. 33. SVG’s Roads, Building and General Services Authority (BRAGSA) was mining sand at four beaches – Diamond, Brighton, Richmond, and Dripp for use as an aggregate in concrete needed for the construction of public works and private buildings, leading to considerable erosion at all four sites. Initially the GoSVG adopted a partial ban on coastal sand mining that ceased sand mining at two beaches (DPC1). It subsequently sought to eliminate coastal sand mining from all four sites by 2021 through the adoption of a time-based phase out plan under DPC2, with sand needed for construction being acquired from inland sources such as the Rabacca River or through imports thereafter. The target was revised accordingly to reflect that no coastal sand would be mined in 2021. Sand mining has completely ceased at three of the four sites - Diamond, Brighton, and Richmond beaches since the adoption of the phase-out plan, but continues at Dripp beach.9 As stated above, this is primarily sediment deposited by the river, which has surged since the volcano eruption and not beach sand. While 29,734.7 m3 of sand was mined at Dripp in 2021, this RI is considered partially achieved since by eliminating sand mining at three of the four beaches, the GoSVG has made considerable progress on the underlying objective of curbing beach erosion in SVG. In this respect, and within the broader context of this reform, tracking the reduction in the volume of coastal sand being mined was not a suitable results indicator, since the link between volume of sand mined and beach erosion can’t be clearly established at locations such as Dripp beach, where there is consistent new sand accumulation due to the river sediment deposits. Instead, tracking the number of coastal sand mining sites that were closed would have been a better indicator, given that stopping the erosion of SVG’s beaches due to mining operations was the main driver for this measure. 34. BRAGSA has a full-scale sand mining operation at the inland Rabacca site that uses sediment brought down by the river. While the volume of sediment being deposited has increased substantially following the volcanic eruption, BRAGSA is unable to process it to a fine grade in the quantities required for certain types of construction due to limited equipment. As a result, it has continued sand mining at Dripp, which has finer sand to meet this shortfall.10 BRAGSA has recently acquired new sand sifters and sand crushing equipment to increase the sediment processing capacity at the in-land Rabacca site. This equipment will be set up in the coming months and is estimated to be operational by mid-October 2025. BRAGSA expects to meet all domestic sand needs through the Rabacca operation once this new equipment is fully functional and cease sand mining at Dripp beach. It even anticipates having a sand surplus that can be exported. RI9: Imported single‐use plastic bags reduced. [Baseline (2017): 453.4 metric tons; Target (2021): 0; Actual (2021): Not available; Current (2023): Not available]. Partially achieved. 35. The GoSVG was unable to provide data on the number of single-use plastic bags imported during the target year and in 2023 since all single-use plastic imports are classified under the same category and the importation data cannot be disaggregated by type of single-use plastic. Discussions with MOF and the Central Water and Sewerage Authority (CWSA) indicated that the import and use of food containers has completely stopped since the ban came into effect in January 2021, but plastic bags are still being imported in small quantities and one plastic bag manufacturer continues producing them domestically. Despite this, single-use plastic bags are not widely used in SVG with most businesses providing goods 9 This was confirmed by the ICR team by visiting Diamond beach. 10 Discussions with SVG’s Physical Planning Unit revealed that the use of imported sand for construction once the ban on coastal sand mining was instituted increased construction costs. This increase ranged between 10 to 15 percent when coupled with shortages of other material such as lumber during the COVID-19 pandemic. Page 21 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT in paper bags and several customers using reusable cloth bags. As a result, the quantity of plastic bags and food containers discarded in water bodies and environmentally sensitive areas has decreased significantly. Based on this information, this RI is considered partially achieved. Given their direct link to the associated reform and its objective of phasing out plastic bags and food containers, this RI and its target were seemingly appropriate. However, the GoSVG’s ability to track and report the data required should have been ascertained before choosing this indicator. 36. The GoSVG aims to strengthen the Customs department’s due diligence on plastic imports to prevent the importation of single-use plastic bags. It is also planning to undertake consultations with the domestic plastic bag manufacturer on discontinuing their production. More broadly, the GoSVG has made substantial progress in reducing land-based and marine pollution through sustained efforts to monitor waste disposal and improve waste management. The Conservation and Sustainable Development Unit within the Ministry of Health, the CSWA, the National Parks, Rivers and Beaches Authority, and the Fisheries Division within the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries monitor the disposal of waste and hazardous material on beaches, environmentally sensitive areas, and in water bodies. RI10: Increase in number of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Conservation Fund’s sustainable revenue sources. [Baseline (2018): 0; Target (2021): 2; Actual (2021): 2; Current (2023): 2]. Achieved. 37. By 2021, SVGCF had two sources of revenue – the Caribbean Biodiversity Fund (CBF) and the Inter-American Foundation (IAF) and this RI has been fully achieved. It has received EC$672,624 from CBF and EC$359,980 from IAF. By end-2022, SVGCF had financed 11 projects that supported beach and coral reef restoration, farmland soil regeneration, assessment of the marine and coastal environment following the volcanic eruption, etc. 11 Since enhancing SVGCF’s financial sustainability was one of the key intended outcomes of measures linked to this RI, the focus on funding is warranted. Nevertheless, the number of funding sources isn’t a sound indicator of SVGCF’s financial capacity, which was one of the key constraints this reform aimed to address. Instead, tracking the funding available or the number of initiatives supported by SVGCF might have been more suitable indicators. RI11: Number of aquaculture business plans prepared. [Baseline (2018): 0; Target (2021): 2; Actual (2021): 0; Current (2023): 0]. Not achieved. 38. The original RI on private‐public partnerships in sustainable aquaculture projects was dropped and replaced with a more realistic indicator on aquaculture business plans prepared. The baseline and target for this RI were accordingly set as no business plans in 2018 and 2 business plans by 2021 respectively. Despite this change, this target was not achieved. The impact of the pandemic and the subsequent volcanic eruption on SVG’s fisheries sector affected the GoSVG’s efforts to develop aquaculture. During COVID-19, the reduction in tourist arrivals reduced the demand for fish from hotels and restaurants in SVG, while the volcanic eruption affected fishing grounds to the northeast and northwest of Saint Vincent leading to severe revenue losses. Concurrently, following the lead of other countries in the region, local sea moss producers started exporting sea moss. To capitalize on this alternate source of income while tourism remained subdued, more individuals started producing sea moss and existing producers increased their production capacity. To support these efforts, the Fisheries division shifted its focus from aquaculture more broadly to sea moss production. The GoSVG, in collaboration with the Nature Conservancy (TNC), has demarcated areas where sea moss production can take place with limited impact to the environment. It is also working with TNC to develop standards for sea moss plots and a licensing system. In parallel, the Fisheries division is undertaking consultations with sea moss producers to understand the investment needs for developing value chains. There are now four sea moss production sites in SVG on the Grenadine islands with a total of 20 producers, some of whom have formed a cooperative. While this was not a planned outcome under this series, it emphasizes how the GoSVG appropriately adjusted its priorities on aquaculture to respond to the challenges posed to the sector by the pandemic and the volcanic eruption. 11 https://svgcf.org/brochure/ Page 22 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT 39. Beyond sea moss, the GoSVG is working on repopulating SVG’s depleted conch population by establishing a conch nursery at Union Island financed by the CDB and exploring lobster farming. In addition, it has revised the regulations to strengthen the enabling environment for aquaculture development, through an update to the Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy, which is waiting to be finalized and endorsed at cabinet level. All these efforts are being supported by a World Bank project on enhancing the blue economy in the Caribbean (P171833). As such, even though the GoSVG was unable to achieve the scaled-down target for this RI, it has made consistent efforts to develop commercial-scale aquaculture in SVG during this time despite facing hurdles and remains deeply committed to this agenda. RI12: Level of funds in the contingencies fund. [Baseline (2017): 0.0; Target (2022): EC$50 million; Actual (2022): EC$39.3 million; Current (2023): EC$46.5 million]. Achieved. 40. Contingencies funds are often under resourced due to a lack of dedicated funding sources. SVG sought to overcome this issue by instituting a contingencies fund that is directly resourced through revenue earned from VAT rate increases and a Climate Resilience Levy collected from hotel stays. The fund was expected to accumulate EC$10 million dollars annually, or about 0.5 percent of GDP per annum because of these measures. Initially the baseline and target for this RI were accordingly set as no funds in 2017 and EC$30 million by 2020. However, the fund had deposits amounting to EC$30.5 million by January 2020, and as a result the target was revised to EC$50 million by 2022 in DPC2. Despite the overall funding level of EC$39.3 million reported for 2022 being below this target, this RI is considered achieved since the amount reported is the recapitalized amount following almost complete depletion of funds in 2021 (EC$27 million).12 The fund has been steadily accumulating resources since then, with each year’s allocation exceeding that of the preceding year. In early 2024, the fund stood at EC$61.1 million.13 Broadly, tracking the effectiveness of the contingencies fund’s administration by focusing on its funding levels was an appropriate choice. While the target chosen for this RI was intended to track sustained flow of resources into the fund, in hindsight it could have been selected to factor in the possibility of funds being disbursed for emergency events occurring during this timeframe (e.g., cumulative funding accumulated since the fund’s establishment). Alternatively, the RI could have been formulated to track the fund’s receipts and expenditures. RI13: Share of permit applications for new buildings approved in compliance with the updated building codes guidelines. [Baseline (2018): 0.0; Target (2022): 100 percent; Actual (2022): 100 percent; Current (2023): 100 percent]. Achieved. 41. At the time of approval of the second operation, the GoSVG was making efforts to build up its capacity to enforce building codes. In acknowledgement of these constraints, this RI had a relatively narrow focus on the permit applications for new buildings. In 2021, the Physical Planning Unit (PPU) undertook a Building Regulations Capacity Assessment with support from the Bank and identified key actions needed to strengthen its capacity to ensure adherence to building codes. At this time, the GoSVG was on track to meet this RI with 100 percent of permit applications for new buildings approved in compliance with the updated building codes guidelines. This result has been sustained with 100 percent compliance reported for both, the target year 2022 and 2023. Therefore, this RI is considered fully achieved. The PPU has been undertaking systematic inspections to ensure that new buildings comply with the building codes once a permit is granted. PPU inspectors carry out inspections at six different stages of construction and provide an inspection certificate that describes the elements covered by the inspection. To facilitate enforcement, each inspector is assigned a specific area, which they visit periodically to monitor construction activity, including unauthorized construction and carry out inspections. It is important to note that the PPU only oversees construction by private entities (e.g., houses, commercial structures, hotels, etc.) and the construction of public structures is administered by the GoSVG’s engineers. 42. The PPU has observed an improvement in the quality of new buildings constructed in recent years that has enhanced their ability to withstand natural hazards. It has recently developed new regulations that include structural 12 Resources from the fund were first disbursed in 2020 for COVID-19-related expenditures (EC$10 million) and subsequently in 2021 to provide critical supplies and services to persons affected by the volcano. 13 https://finance.gov.vc/finance/images/PDF/budgetaddress/SVG_Budget2024_updated.pdf Page 23 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT considerations for Category 5 hurricanes and a requirement for developments along the coast to undertake an EIA and a public consultation. These are awaiting finalization and approval. It is also working on updating its datasets on climate hazards, particularly geospatial data for flood and landslide risks to guide decisions on locating development. RI14: Number of schools used as emergency shelters that have completed comprehensive disaster management plans and submitted to the Ministry of Education. [Baseline (2019): 11.1 percent (5/45); Target (2022): 44.4 percent (20/45); Actual (2022): 10.41 percent (5/48); Current (2023): 12.96 percent (7/54)]. Not achieved. 43. The School Safety Policy identified ‘Standardization and updating of school safety and DRM plans’ as one of its three core priorities. Given the critical role of these schools in SVG’s emergency preparedness, an increase in the number of such schools adopting these plans was deemed to be a key measure of this policy’s successful implementation and was the basis for selecting this RI. In 2019, only 11 percent (5 out of 45) schools serving as emergency shelters had developed and submitted DRM plans to the Ministry of Education (MOE), which was used as the baseline. The 2022 target of 44.4 percent (20 out of 45) was not achieved, with no new schools submitting DRM plans. By end-2023, 54 schools were being used as emergency shelters of which 7 (13 percent) had submitted DRM plans to MOE. The modest progress on this RI is a result of a combination of factors. Virtual learning instituted by SVG’s schools during the pandemic continued following the volcanic eruption due to many schools being utilized as shelters. During this period, school administrators were primarily focused on the dual priorities of virtual learning and caring for persons in the shelters. MOE developed model plans and reference guides that could be tailored and adopted by schools, conducted workshops to train school personnel on developing plans and engaged with individual schools, yet follow through by schools on developing DRM plans was limited. To address this issue, MOE initiated a safe school recognition program with support from development partners. Under this program, 16 schools, of which 14 are emergency shelters were identified as pilots and are receiving support on undertaking a comprehensive safety assessment and developing a safety plan. Of these, two schools have submitted plans to MOE with the rest aiming to submit plans in the coming months. As such, by end of this year, 21 out of 54 (39 percent) schools serving as emergency shelters are expected to have developed and submitted DRM plans to MOE. Looking back, this RI was not the best choice, since the development of DRM plans is at the discretion of schools and school administrators have numerous demands on their time as well as conflicting priorities. Additionally, the target was quite ambitious and should have considered the capacity and resource constraints faced by both, MOE and school administrators. C. OVERALL OUTCOME RATING AND JUSTIFICATION Rating: Satisfactory 44. With a Satisfactory rating for relevance of the prior actions and a Satisfactory rating for efficacy, the overall outcome rating is Satisfactory. All the prior actions had a strong and direct link in achieving the PDOs. Transitioning to the second operation, the series expanded its focus from fiscal and climate resilience to including a COVID-19 pandemic response and associated prior actions were added accordingly. Modest changes were also made to some of the triggers, subsequent prior actions, and results indicators to reflect evolving circumstances and ensure continued relevance of the supported program and actions. III. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS A. POVERTY, GENDER AND SOCIAL IMPACTS 45. This DPC has had positive poverty-related impacts. The short-term impact on poverty reduction can be attributed to the measures supported through PAs 1, 2, and 3 in the second operation to limit the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the poor and vulnerable population groups by protecting their livelihoods and preserving jobs. The support provided through this operation to households and businesses affected by pandemic-related closures offered liquidity and Page 24 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT continuity of businesses and livelihoods, limited exposure to COVID-19 and helped maintain consumption levels among the most vulnerable. These measures could also have a positive long-term effect by improving human capital, productivity, and stimulating economic growth. 46. Women have shared the benefits provided by these programs.14 The livelihood and jobs continuity facilitated by the supported measures benefited women to a greater extent given that job losses during the COVID-19 crisis were concentrated in the tourism and retail sectors where women constitute a major portion of employed individuals. To ensure such measures effectively promote gender-balanced outcomes going forward, it will be necessary to collect and analyze gender-disaggregated data and implement gender-sensitive budgeting in the near term, efforts on which are ongoing, including through Bank TA. 47. Implementation of strengthened building regulations and the School Safety Policy has likely resulted in positive indirect social impacts. Compliance with the updated building regulations has improved the quality of new buildings constructed in SVG. Their enhanced resilience to natural disasters will reduce the socioeconomic costs arising from damage and destruction. Structural strengthening of existing and new educational facilities, some of which double up as emergency shelters, and the development of DRM plans are offering safe learning environments for students and secure locations for affected populations to seek refuge during natural disasters, providing protection against antisocial behaviors that might occur during such events. B. ENVIRONMENTAL, FORESTS, AND NATURAL RESOURCE ASPECTS 48. With many measures specifically designed to strengthen environmental management and climate resilience (PAs 5, 6, 7, and 8 in the first operation and PAs 7 and 8 in the second operation), the program has positively contributed to protecting and strengthening SVG’s land-based and marine ecosystems. The phase out of sand mining on Brighton, Diamond, and Richmond beaches is enabling their gradual replenishment, which will eventually restore their ability to act as natural defenses against storms. The ban on single-use plastic bags and food containers has significantly reduced the accumulation of plastic litter on beaches, in water bodies and environmentally sensitive areas, improving the health of their flora and fauna. Environmental sustainability has been at the core of the GoSVG’s efforts to promote aquaculture, which is expected to improve fish stocks in the long-term. With a strengthened mandate, the SVGCF has financed numerous projects that have focused on protecting SVG’s biodiversity. Most fiscal and PFM measures supported were deemed to be environmentally neutral and were not expected to have significant negative impacts. However, measures such as the new public procurement legislation and related regulations on the incorporation of environmental sustainability considerations have likely had a positive impact. Furthermore, by limiting the downside economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis on households and businesses, PAs 1, 2, and 3 in the second operation are likely to have reduced pressures on the natural environment. The financial relief provided by these programs enabled beneficiaries to maintain income and consumption levels, and largely averted the need to resort to potentially damaging environmental practices. Lastly, the resources provided through the contingencies fund (PA 12 in DPC2), the Cat DDO and the supplemental financing operation in the wake of the volcanic eruptions were highly instrumental in enabling the GoSVG to launch a timely and appropriate response which ensured that the impacts on forests, natural resources, and the environment throughout the main island of Saint Vincent were limited and appropriately addressed. These resources were used to undertake ash clean up and debris removal and provide inputs for agricultural production to partially recover losses. They also facilitated the restoration of critical environmental services such as water storage and safety, and waste management following the eruption. C. INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE/STRENGTHENING 49. The DPC series contributed to improvements in public sector governance and monitoring and management of natural resources by supporting modernization of outdated practices and strengthening of key areas. Procurement 14 Due to data availability limitations this was quantified only for the supplementary income program for displaced workers. Page 25 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT reform will ensure greater value for money and increased transparency in procurement processes. Other measures that targeted transparency, such as the FRF and strengthened SOE oversight and monitoring will improve public sector accountability. The tax administration reforms that were supported have strengthened tax administration and improved the relationship between taxpayers and the GoSVG. Lastly, reforms related to protecting SVG’s natural assets from overexploitation and reducing marine pollution have improved the oversight of coastal areas which will improve the management of the country’s natural assets. 50. The Cat DDO strengthened the institutional framework for managing climate and disaster risks and augmented the GoSVG’s capacity to manage associated contingent liabilities. The measures supported have mainstreamed climate and disaster resilience in the permitting processes for new buildings constructed as well as in the design and management of educational facilities. Furthermore, the contingencies fund has provided a fiscal buffer to the GoSVG in the event of emergencies to facilitate a rapid financial response. D. OTHER UNINTENDED OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS 51. No significant unintended outcomes were identified. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE Rating: Satisfactory 52. The Bank provided effective, timely and appropriate support to the GoSVG in the design/preparation and implementation of this programmatic series. The Bank worked closely with the GoSVG in defining the policy matrix and played a key role in helping the program meet its objectives through necessary adjustments to factor in the constraints posed by the pandemic. TA provided throughout the design and implementation of the series was crucial for pivoting the development agenda towards a climate resilient recovery. Preparation 53. The inclusion of a Cat-DDO component in the second operation displayed a pragmatic approach to the client’s evolving needs. Since this series was the first DPF operation in SVG, the GoSVG had limited experience in working with the Bank on this lending instrument-type. To respond to the GoSVG’s request to build on the progress achieved under the first operation, while recognizing the limited capacity and additional demands of managing the COVID-19 pandemic, incorporating the Cat-DDO into the existing DPC operation was deemed to be preferable to reduce the bureaucratic and administrative steps associated with designing and implementing two separate operations. As noted previously, the design of the original PDO provided this flexibility, and some of the triggers identified in the first operation were adopted as Cat DDO prior actions. The process of merging the two operations proceeded relatively smoothly, reflecting positively on the team’s understanding of the GoSVG’s priorities and readiness to explore different possibilities. 54. The series was designed using sound analytical underpinnings, based on World Bank analysis and that of other development partners. For example, insights on the effective application of fiscal rules frameworks in the context of small states, particularly Caribbean countries from the report Fiscal Rules and Economic Size in Latin America and the Caribbean (World Bank, 2020) informed the TA provided for the FRF, its fiscal targets, and design. Similarly, the design of actions around the creation of the contingencies fund and its operating guidelines was based on best-practice literature in this area, comprising analysis and publications undertaken by the Bank and others, including the IMF and academia. Procurement reform similarly built on a long history of best practice in the area. In terms of the COVID-19 response measures, numerous Bank publications and guidelines supported effective COVID-19 response programming. The environmental protection and blue growth reforms drew extensively on the Bank’s Caribbean-focused analytics on climate and disaster resilience, blue economy development and marine pollution. Finally, the Cat-DDO actions benefitted from Page 26 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT the Bank’s extensive expertise in the climate and DRM space. For instance, the design of the school safety reform was informed by the Roadmap for Safer Schools developed by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. 55. There was a continuous dialogue and collaboration between the Bank and relevant government agencies throughout the design of this series. The design phase included numerous discussions between the Bank team and relevant authorities to facilitate the identification of supported reforms that were deemed critical to strengthening fiscal, climate, and disaster resilience. This also included an assessment of what could be accomplished within the timeframe of the series and of areas where significant TA would need to be provided to support the implementation of measures. Completing this reform program would have been difficult without sustained Bank engagement and Bank-provided TA. Despite the limited budget available for the provision of TA, the Bank was instrumental in ensuring that the GoSVG received requisite assistance for implementing relevant measures. For example, TA was provided to for developing SOE financial and performance reporting guidelines and templates. As such, the cooperation between the Bank and the authorities was exemplary. Implementation 56. COVID-19 related travel restrictions affected the ability to conduct Implementation Status and Results (ISR) missions and only one ISR was undertaken. Similarly, these restrictions constrained the ability to deliver related TA, particularly that planned through study tours. While the team used virtual means to engage with relevant agencies on areas where results were lagging or not being achieved and provided additional guidance, these had limitations and proved less effective compared to in-person engagement. V. RISK TO SUSTAINABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES 57. The first objective of responding to COVID-19 to protect the vulnerable is subject to little sustainability risk at this point. With the pandemic winding down, the risk that a COVID-19 resurgence will jeopardize achievements to date is minimal. Furthermore, SVG now has systems in place to effectively handle such a resurgence, both in terms of addressing the public health-related implications of a pandemic and programs that can support livelihoods and business continuity during emergencies. As such, the response from the GoSVG on both accounts would be expected to be prompt and effective. 58. The second objective of strengthening fiscal resilience is subject to moderate risk. Despite ongoing COVID-19- related challenges and demands, the GoSVG managed the aftermath of the volcanic eruption in an exemplary fashion. The response was rapid, the loss of lives minimal, the impact on the economy, while not insubstantial, was capably contained and managed, and the recovery and reconstruction efforts were swift and effective. The fiscal buffers supported under this series were used as intended and the fact that the contingencies fund has already been largely replenished is a testament to the GoSVG’s recognition of its usefulness and the necessity for such buffers. Nonetheless, SVG’s exposure to natural disasters is high and there is always residual risk that cannot be fully eliminated or planned for ex-ante. Furthermore, the ambitious public investment pipeline over the short to medium term leaves limited fiscal space for a response to a natural disaster event and elevated levels of public debt could pose further constraints. Lastly, risks related to global geo-political developments, both upside and downside, can be significant. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East have made economic management more challenging by impacting investor confidence, import prices, and causing rising global economic uncertainty. Fortunately, the GoSVG’s PFM and fiscal buffers have been substantially improved through the support provided by the series and are unlikely to be undone in the presence of the above risks. In sum, the significant progress made in these areas considerably reduce the risks to the sustainability of this objective compared to the situation prior to this series' implementation. Page 27 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT 59. In terms of the third objective of enhancing climate and disaster resilience, some risk remains . The main risks are exogenous and outside of the Bank’s and SVG´s control. Natural disasters remain a prominent risk, and their impacts, particularly extreme weather events, are expected to intensify with climate change. Despite improvements in disaster risk preparedness and management, including through actions supported under this series, risk from such events will persist given SVG’s high degree of exposure to hazards such as hurricanes. Similarly, the uncertainties associated with the materialization of climate-related risks also pose a threat. For instance, while SVG previously suffered considerable damages due to heavy rainfall, the country is currently experiencing drought conditions due to below normal rainfall in the first quarter of 2024. The second key challenge is related to limited institutional and human resource capacity. As a small island state, SVG has been relying on the decision-making and technical abilities of a small cadre of government staff for implementing and sustaining the reforms supported by this series. Maintaining the progress made on this third objective requires consistent monitoring and enforcement of regulations that in turn requires considerable human and financial resources. With existing staff stretched thin, there is some risk of certain outcomes under this objective being reversed without requisite capacity enhancements. 60. Overall, risks to the sustainability of the DPC´s outcomes are considered medium to low as full implementation continues, and reforms are consolidated and become increasingly irreversible. VI. LESSONS AND NEXT PHASE A. LESSONS LEARNED 61. A key lesson that is unique to this operation relates to incorporating the Cat DDO as a component within a broader DPF operation. While the decision to integrate the two operations was largely driven by the need to reduce the administrative burden on the GoSVG and to streamline the Bank’s internal processes due to the capacity constraints imposed by the COVID-19 crisis, the design of the first operation allowed for the inclusion of the Cat DDO without significant changes to the overall program. A dedicated pillar focusing on adaptation and resilience provided flexibility for introducing Cat DDO-related elements in the second operation with relative ease through minor modifications to existing triggers and the inclusion of new prior actions. This underscores the need to ensure that flexibility is built into the design of DPF operations undertaken in small island states to enable the Bank to appropriately adapt the reform program when unforeseen crises and shocks occur. 62. The consolidation of the operations led to two important benefits compared to proceeding with two independent operations. First, combining the two credits into a single operation allowed for greater integration across the policy priorities these operations were seeking to advance. It ensured that the Bank considered, designed, and negotiated the prior actions as a single, coherent package with the connections and synergies between various potential actions fully developed through extensive discussions, both with the GoSVG and internally. Second, combining the two operations also facilitated effective coordination of efforts within the GoSVG, with the MoF leading the discussions and ensuring the appropriate participation of relevant line ministries, rather than the Bank having to work with these ministries through separate operations led by them. 63. Another important insight gained from this series is the need to comprehensively consider institutional capacity issues in small island states across all elements and stages of such operations. The high vulnerability of small economies such as SVG to external shocks often leaves their governments saddled with demands arising from unanticipated disasters, limiting institutional capacity that can be dedicated to advancing development priorities. As a result, pursuing policy reforms in such contexts requires concerted efforts to overcome this challenge. TA provided to the GoSVG across several PAs over the life of this programmatic series was critical to the achievement of its outcomes given capacity constraints, especially those pertaining to human resources and the broad scope of responsibility inherent in small administrations. That said, being the first DPF series undertaken in SVG, the level of ambition of the overall program was quite high and Page 28 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT some actions could have been better calibrated to the level of available capacity. As such, undertaking an extensive assessment of institutional capacity during DPF preparation and providing support for addressing key capacity and governance gaps coupled with consistent results monitoring throughout implementation is critical for ensuring sustainability of development outcomes in small island states. 64. Finally, there are some key lessons to be learned in choosing appropriate results indicators. First, the indicators chosen should be attributable to supported actions and not subject to undue influence by exogenous factors. Second, in contexts with limited institutional capacity, the selection of indicators should be based on a realistic assessment of the implementing entities’ ability to achieve the targeted results within the specified timeframe. Additionally, results indicators that capture the progress made on the implementation of the reform, rather than its end goal may be better suited in instances where the implementing entities have severe capacity constraints. Third, it’s important to determine if governments can report on the chosen results indicators by confirming if the agencies responsible for tracking the relevant data are indeed doing so. B. NEXT PHASE 65. The World Bank is committed to working with SVG to anchor the reforms supported by this series. It has supported the GoSVG in strengthening the resilience of the country’s health systems and enhancing its response capabilities to health-related emergencies (P176559). A project funded by the Global Environment Facility (P172980) is supporting the operationalization of the NOPSAP and financing pilots for participatory planning and nature-based solutions in four coastal and marine areas. A regional project focused on strengthening the enabling environment for the blue economy and resilience of coastal assets in OECS countries (P171833) is assisting the GoSVG in strengthening the enabling environment for climate-resilient and sustainable growth in the tourism, fisheries and aquaculture sectors, and also financing priority infrastructure in these sectors. A new Cat-DDO operation will build on the reforms advanced under this DPC series and further strengthen SVG’s disaster preparedness and resilience. A Country Climate and Development Report for the Eastern Caribbean is under preparation. Expected to be completed next year, this report will provide insights on how the long-term impacts of climate change could impact SVG’s development priorities and identify areas for action in adaptation and resilience to achieve its development goals. Page 29 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@icrdpfresultframework#doctemplate A. RESULTS FRAMEWORK Indicators by Pillars 1. Responding to COVID-19 to protect the vulnerable Baseline Closing Period (Current) Actual Achieved at Completion Indicator Name Value Month/Year Value Date Value Month/Year 0.00 Jan/2020 Not applicable Dec/2023 2,190.00 Jun/2021 RI1: Beneficiaries who received Comments on achieving targets This results indicator is considered fully achieved. Displaced hotel workers program support. (Number) made up over 87 percent of program beneficiaries, highlighting the disproportionate effects of COVID-19-related tourism closures on this group. 0.00 Not applicable 57.40 RI1: Female beneficiaries of Comments on achieving targets This results indicator is considered achieved. Over half the displaced hotel program support. workers who benefitted from the program being women points to the (Percentage) importance of this program in supporting one of the most vulnerable groups during the crisis. 0.00 Jan/2020 Not applicable Dec/2023 5,964.00 Dec/2021 Comments on achieving targets This results indicator is considered achieved. The significant overachievement RI2: Beneficiaries who received on this results indicator is due to the large number of farmers (5000) who program support. (Number) accessed the program, most of whom were not registered with the GoSVG when the program was established, leading to lower estimates for anticipated number of beneficiaries. 0.00 Jan/2020 Not applicable Dec/2023 3,576.00 Jun/2021 Page 30 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT Comments on achieving targets This results indicator is considered fully achieved. It is notable that sailors who RI3: Beneficiaries who received pre- were unemployed due to the cessation in cruises during the pandemic and payments, TUB benefits, and IAB were not contributing to the GoSVG’s pension programs were the primary support. (Number) beneficiaries of IAB program. 2. Strengthening fiscal resilience Baseline Closing Period (Current) Actual Achieved at Completion Indicator Name Value Month/Year Value Date Value Month/Year RI4: Public debt convergence to the 73.50 Dec/2017 85.70 Dec/2023 84.90 Dec/2020 ECCU target of 60 percent of GDP by Comments on achieving targets This results indicator is considered partially achieved. 2030. (Percentage) RI5: Analysis of government-wide No Dec/2017 No Dec/2023 Yes Dec/2020 procurement spending published by Comments on achieving targets This results indicator is considered fully achieved. MOF. (Yes/No) RI6: Revenue from taxes on income EC$151 million Dec/2017 EC$152.13 million Dec/2023 EC$143 million Dec/2020 and profits. (Amount(USD)) Comments on achieving targets This results indicator is considered not achieved. RI7: Analysis of the performance of 0 Dec/2017 0 Dec/2023 0 Dec/2020 commercial SOEs published. Comments on achieving targets This results indicator is considered not achieved. (Number) 3. Enhancing climate and disaster resilience Baseline Closing Period (Current) Actual Achieved at Completion Indicator Name Value Month/Year Value Date Value Month/Year 35,370.0 Dec/2018 40,230 Dec/2023 29,734.7 Dec/2021 RI8: Volume of domestically mined Comments on achieving targets This results indicator is considered partially achieved. Sand mining has coastal sand reduced. (Cubic completely ceased at three of the four sites - Diamond, Brighton, and Meter(m3)) Richmond beaches since the adoption of the phase-out plan, but continues at Dripp, which is at the mouth of the Rabacca River. 453.40 Dec/2017 Not available Dec/2023 Not available Dec/2021 Page 31 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT Comments on achieving targets This results indicator is considered partially achieved. The GoSVG was unable to provide data on the number of single-use plastic bags imported during the RI9: Imported single‐use plastic bags target year and in 2023 since all single-use plastic imports are classified under reduced. (Metric ton) the same category and the importation data cannot be disaggregated by type of single-use plastic. RI10: Increase in number of Saint 0 Dec/2018 2 Dec/2023 2 Dec/2021 Vincent and the Grenadines Comments on achieving targets This results indicator is considered fully achieved. By 2021, SVGCF had two Conservation Fund’s sustainable sources of revenue – the Caribbean Biodiversity Fund (CBF) and the Inter- revenue sources. (Number) American Foundation (IAF). 0 Dec/2018 0 Dec/2023 0 Dec/2021 RI11: Number of aquaculture business Comments on achieving targets This results indicator is considered not achieved. The impact of the pandemic plans prepared. (Number) and the subsequent volcanic eruption on SVG’s fisheries sector affected the GoSVG’s efforts to develop aquaculture. 0.00 Dec/2017 EC$46.5 million Dec/2023 EC$39.3 million Dec/2022 RI12: Level of funds in the Comments on achieving targets This results indicator is considered achieved since the amount reported is the contingencies fund. (Amount(USD)) recapitalized amount following almost complete depletion of funds in 2021. RI13: Share of permit applications for 0.00 Dec/2018 100.00 Dec/2023 100.00 Dec/2022 new buildings approved in compliance Comments on achieving targets This results indicator is considered fully achieved. with the updated building codes guidelines. (Percentage) RI14: Schools used as emergency 11.10 Dec/2019 12.96 Dec/2023 10.41 Dec/2022 shelters that have completed Comments on achieving targets This results indicator is considered not achieved. comprehensive disaster management plans and submitted to the Ministry of Education. (Percentage) Page 32 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS Operation ID Name Role David MacWilliam Team Leader Keren Carla Charles Team Leader Arun Manuja Financial Management Specialist Moad M. Alrubaidi Financial Management Specialist Manjola Malo Procurement Specialist P169956 Vinicius Lima Moura Procurement Specialist Felix Alberto Quintero Vollmer Counsel Miriam Beatriz Villarroel Team Member Jose C. Janeiro Team Member Mary Elinor Boyer Team Member Katherine Anne O'Gara Team Member David MacWilliam Team Leader Ana Luisa Gomes Lima Team Leader Tatiana Cristina O. de Abreu Souza Financial Management Specialist John Oliver Moss Procurement Specialist Jacqueline Beatriz Veloz Lockward Counsel Patricia Holt Team Member P165220 Miriam Beatriz Villarroel Team Member Anna Benjamin Team Member Ruxandra Burdescu Team Member Julian Lee Team Member David I Team Member Keren Carla Charles Team Member Giselle Velasquez Team Member @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@icrannexstafftime#doctemplate Page 33 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT B. STAFF TIME & COST Operation ID : P165220 Staff Time & Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of Staff Weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY18 19.118 0.19 FY19 0.800 0.00 Total 0.00 0.19 Supervision/ICR FY19 9.575 0.09 FY20 7.880 0.05 Total 0.00 0.15 Operation ID : P169956 Staff Time & Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of Staff Weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY20 19.963 0.15 Total 0.00 0.15 Supervision/ICR FY21 12.435 0.06 FY22 5.779 0.02 FY24 8.000 0.06 Page 34 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT Total 0.00 0.15 Page 35 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT ANNEX 3. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIERS, AND OTHER DEVELOPMENT PARTNERS’/STAKEHOLDERS’ COMMENTS Comments from Ministry of Finance, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines In general, the report was in keeping with the discussion points and information provided during the recent World Bank mission. Page 36 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT ANNEX 4. SECTORS AND THEMES @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@icrdpfsectortheme#doctemplate SECTORS AND THEMES Operation ID : P165220 Sectors Adaptation Mitigation Major Sector Sector % Co-benefits Co-benefits (%) (%) Agriculture, Fishing and Fisheries 12 50 0 Forestry Energy and Extractives Mining 13 100 0 Central Government (Central 38 0 0 Public Administration Agencies) Other Public Administration 13 0 0 Water, Sanitation and Other Water Supply, Sanitation and 24 50 25 Waste Management Waste Management Themes Major Theme Theme (Level 2) Theme (Level 3) % Macroeconomic & Economic Policy Economic Growth and Planning Structural Policy 13 Modelling Adaptation 31 Environment and Climate change Natural Resource Mitigation 6 Management Renewable Natural Resources Asset Oceans 50 Management Human Development Gender 25 and Gender State-owned Enterprise Public Administration Reform and 13 Privatization Public Sector Domestic Revenue Management 13 Administration Public Finance Management Public Expenditure 13 Management Page 37 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT Urban and Rural Disaster Risk Management Disaster Risk Reduction 13 Development Operation ID : P169956 Sectors Adaptation Mitigation Major Sector Sector % Co-benefits Co-benefits (%) (%) Agriculture, Fishing and Fisheries 5 0 0 Forestry Education Other Education 5 100 0 Energy and Extractives Mining 9 50 0 Industry, Trade and Tourism 9 0 0 Services Central Government (Central 27 0 0 Public Administration Agencies) Other Public Administration 18 56 6 Social Protection Social Protection 18 25 0 Water, Sanitation and Other Water Supply, Sanitation and 9 10 0 Waste Management Waste Management Themes Major Theme Theme (Level 2) Theme (Level 3) % Economic Policy Fiscal Policy Fiscal sustainability 9 Adaptation 25 Climate change Mitigation 1 Environmental Health and Pollution Environment and Water Pollution 9 Management Natural Resource Coastal Zone Management 18 Management Renewable Natural Resources Asset Fisheries Policies and Management 9 institutions Oceans 9 Finance Finance for Development Disaster Risk Finance 9 Human Development Disease Control Pandemic Response 100 and Gender Education Education Facilities 9 Page 38 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT Domestic Revenue 9 Public Sector Administration Public Finance Management Management Public Expenditure 18 Management Fragility, Conflict and Violence Forced Displacement 9 Social Development and Social Insurance and 9 Protection Social Protection Pensions Social Safety Nets 27 Disaster Response and 9 Disaster Risk Management Recovery Urban and Rural Disaster Risk Reduction 18 Development Land Administration and Rural Development 9 Management ANNEX 5. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS Saint Vincent and the Grenadines - First Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Project (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/586591558118654567/St-Vincent- and-the-Grenadines-First-Fiscal-Reform-and-Resilience-Development-Policy-Credit-Project Saint Vincent and the Grenadines - Second Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit with a with a Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/378901591635788767/St-Vincent-and-the-Grenadines-Second-Fiscal- Reform-and-Resilience-Development-Policy-Credit-with-a-with-a-Catastrophe-Deferred-Drawdown-Option Saint Vincent and the Grenadines - Supplemental Financing to the Second Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/742011624932126044/St-Vincent-and-the-Grenadines-Supplemental- Financing-to-the-Second-Fiscal-Reform-and-Resilience-Development-Policy-Credit O'Gara,Katherine Anne. Disclosable Version of the ISR - Second Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit with a Cat DDO - P169956 - Sequence No : 01 (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/768111623133453597/Disclosable-Version-of-the-ISR-Second-Fiscal- Reform-and-Resilience-Development-Policy-Credit-with-a-Cat-DDO-P169956-Sequence-No-01 OECS Countries - Regional partnership strategy for the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) for the period FY15-19. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/681431468146985821/pdf/851560CPS0R201000Box385343B00OUO090. pdf OECS Countries – Performance and Learning Review of the Regional Partnership Strategy for the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) for the period FY15-19. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/924951563459760467/pdf/Organization-of-Eastern-Caribbean-States- Performance-and-learning-review-of-the-regional-country-partnership-strategy-for-the-period-FY15-FY19.pdf Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. National Economic & Social Development Plan 2013 – 2025. Page 39 The World Bank Fiscal Reform and Resilience Development Policy Credit Programmatic Series ICR DOCUMENT https://finance.gov.vc/finance/index.php/economic-planning-industry-and-social-development/national-economic-a- social-development-plan Key Economic Indicators, 2015–25 (at time of appraisal) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Proj. (annual percentage growth) Real sector Real GDP (market prices) 0.8 0.8 1.0 2.2 0.4 -5.5 4.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.7 Consumer price index (avg.) -1.7 -0.2 2.2 2.3 0.9 0.9 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Monetary Broad money (M2) 4.8 3.0 1.2 1.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Credit to private sector 2.4 1.3 1.1 0.1 -0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.6 Fiscal Revenue 27.9 29.8 30.0 29.1 29.9 28.7 31.3 32.7 30.3 30.3 30.3 Expenditure 30.0 28.7 30.5 30.0 32.3 35.0 35.8 37.2 34.4 32.0 30.7 Overall balance -2.1 1.1 -0.4 -0.9 -2.4 -6.2 -4.5 -4.5 -4.1 -1.7 -0.4 Primary balance 0.1 3.2 1.9 1.5 0.1 -3.7 -1.9 -1.8 -1.1 1.1 2.1 Public debt 79.4 82.8 73.5 75.6 75.2 85.8 85.4 85.4 84.7 82.1 78.4 External debt 46.4 56.4 46.9 45.7 53.0 63.0 66.4 68.7 70.4 69.8 66.1 External Current account balance -14.5 -15.2 -11.6 -12.0 -10.0 -17.5 -12.1 -12.7 -10.8 -9.6 -8.3 Exports (goods and services) 37.4 37.9 37.0 38.2 40.1 26.7 35.5 40.6 43.0 43.1 44.6 Imports (goods, services) 54.5 55.7 53.3 55.1 53.5 46.7 50.1 55.1 54.7 54.3 55.3 Foreign direct investment 6.6 21.1 4.2 7.2 3.8 4.6 5.4 10.0 9.4 8.0 4.2 Terms of trade (2002=100) 121 120 119 116 117 124 121 118 117 115 115 Exchange rate (EC$/US$) 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 Memorandum items Nominal GDP (EC$ million) 2040 2081 2139 2191 2226 2131 2255 2370 2487 2607 2731 Sources: ECCB, IMF, and World Bank staff estimates. 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