Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00006628 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT 03350-NE ON A GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR20.7 MILLION (US$30.0 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF NIGER FOR THE YOUTH EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTIVE INCLUSION PROJECT June 26, 2024 Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice Western And Central Africa Region CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective {Feb 14, 2024}) Currency Unit = US$ SDR 0.751838000 = US$1 US$ 1.330070 = SDR 1 FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30 Regional Vice President: Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Clara Ana Coutinho de Sousa Regional Director: Trina S. Haque Practice Manager: Christian Bodewig Task Team Leader(s): Snjezana Plevko ICR Main Contributor: Pantaleo Creti ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ANPE National Agency for the Promotion of Employment (Agence Nationale pour la Promotion de l'Emploi) ASN Adaptive Safety Nets ASNP Adaptive Safety Nets Project AWPB Annual Work Plan and Budget CAR Regional Learning Advisors (Conseilleurs d’Apprentissage Régionaux) CPF Country Partnership Framework GDP Gross Domestic Product FAFPA Fund for Professional Development and Learning (Fond d'Appui et la Formation Professionnelle et l'Apprentissage) FCFA Franc of the African Financial Community FCV Fragile, Conflict, and Violence GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report IDA International Development Association IGA Income Generating Activity INS National Statistical Institute (Institut National de la Statistique) MEWSP Ministry of Employment, Work, and Social Protection (Ministère de l’Emploi du Travail et de la Protection Sociale) M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MIS Management Information System MTR Midterm Review NGO Nongovernmental Organization PCU Project Coordination Unit PDES Economic and Social Development Plan (Plan de Développement Economique and Social) PDO Project Development Objective PEJIP Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (Projet d’Emploi des Jeunes et Inclusion Productive) PSC Project Steering Committee TOC Theory of Change TTL Task Team Leader UGT Technical Implementation Unit (Unité de Gestion Technique) VSLA Village Savings and Loan Association TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET .......................................................................................................................... 1 I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 5 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL .........................................................................................................5 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION ................................................................9 II. OUTCOME .................................................................................................................... 11 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ............................................................................................................ 11 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ...................................................................................... 12 C. EFFICIENCY ........................................................................................................................... 15 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING .................................................................... 17 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) ............................................................................ 17 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 20 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ................................................................................... 20 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION ............................................................................. 20 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 22 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ......................................................... 22 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE ..................................................... 25 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ........................................................................................................... 26 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ....................................................................................... 28 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................. 29 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 31 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ......................... 40 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 43 ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ........................................................................................... 44 ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ... 45 ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) ..................................................................... 46 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name P163157 Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project Country Financing Instrument Niger Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Not Required (C) Not Required (C) Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency Republic of Niger Ministry of Employment, Work and Social Protection Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The objective of the project is to expand income-generating activities for youths in selected poor areas in Niger. Page | 1 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) FINANCING Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing 30,000,000 30,000,000 26,449,768 IDA-D3350 Total 30,000,000 30,000,000 26,449,768 Non-World Bank Financing 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 Total Project Cost 30,000,000 30,000,000 26,449,768 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing 14-Jun-2018 30-Oct-2018 24-Jan-2022 30-Jun-2023 30-Jun-2023 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 25-Apr-2022 12.67 Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Reallocation between Disbursement Categories KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Highly Satisfactory Highly Satisfactory High RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 28-Jan-2019 Satisfactory Satisfactory 1.43 02 26-Sep-2019 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 2.86 Page | 2 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) 03 25-Apr-2020 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 3.38 04 01-Dec-2020 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 4.21 05 25-Jun-2021 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 6.78 06 06-Jan-2022 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 10.67 07 06-Jul-2022 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 14.65 08 01-Mar-2023 Satisfactory Satisfactory 21.83 09 30-Jun-2023 Highly Satisfactory Satisfactory 26.45 SECTORS AND THEMES Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%) Social Protection 100 Social Protection 75 Public Administration - Social Protection 25 Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Private Sector Development 100 Jobs 100 Job Creation 52 Youth Employment 100 Social Development and Protection 100 Social Protection 100 Social Safety Nets 100 Human Development and Gender 100 Gender 100 Labor Market Policy and Programs 73 Active Labor Market Programs 73 Page | 3 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) Urban and Rural Development 52 Rural Development 52 Rural Non-farm Income Generation 52 Environment and Natural Resource Management 22 Climate change 22 Adaptation 22 ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Soukeyna Kane Clara Ana Coutinho De Sousa Director: Michal J. Rutkowski Trina S. Haque Practice Manager: Stefano Paternostro Christian Bodewig Thomas Bossuroy, Patrick Task Team Leader(s): Snjezana Plevko Premand ICR Contributing Author: Pantaleo Creti Page | 4 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Context 1. At appraisal in 2018, Niger was one of the poorest countries in the world. Data from 2017 revealed that chronic poverty affected over one quarter of Nigeriens (26.8 percent) and was more prevalent in rural (32.6 percent) than in urban areas (5.5 percent).1 Between ten and 15 percent of the Nigerien population was permanently food insecure and dependent on food assistance. In years of food crises, this share can increase to about 50 percent. Between 2008 and 2017, the country suffered two severe droughts, which required massive international support to prevent famine. In the same period, the national prevalence of acute malnutrition ranged from 10 to 15 percent,2 swinging between the emergency and alert international thresholds.3 2. Niger was also at the bottom of the Human Development Index rank, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita was approximately US$480. Life expectancy at birth was estimated at about 61 years. Infant mortality rate was 48 per 1,000 live births and maternal mortality rate was 520 per 100,000 live births. Only 52 percent of children received a complete set of vaccinations. About seven Nigeriens out of ten were illiterate, average school attendance was less than six years and learning outcomes were among the lowest in the region. Only four of ten female primary school students reached the 6th grade. 3. Niger’s economic growth was volatile, driven by a rural sector frequently affected by climatic shocks and subject to the fluctuations in the price of its mineral exports. Between 1984 and 2010, Niger experienced eight years of negative growth rate and drought was largely responsible for six of them.4 From 2011, GDP growth resumed, reaching 11.8 percent in 2012 (the highest in the last 35 years) and 6.9 percent in 2014. Agriculture (36.7 percent) and services (43.6 percent) accounted for the largest shares of GDP, while the industrial sector contributed a small fraction (19.5 percent). In 2011, the country started to produce petroleum, which together with uranium – which represented half of the country’s exports – had the potential to contribute to the country’s growth in the medium term. 4. Economic growth only partially translated into improvements in development outcomes due to extremely high rates of population growth and fertility. With an annual population growth of four percent and a fertility rate of 7.6 children per woman, Niger had one of the most rapidly growing populations in the world. The country population was expected to reach 54 million people in 2050. The fast demographic growth resulted in a large number of youths entering the working-age population every year. High fertility had detrimental implications on the possibility for women to acquire education or participate in the labor force. The ability of the country to benefit from a demographic dividend depended on whether youths, including women, could engage in productive employment opportunities. 5. Underemployment was high, despite increasing off-farm economic opportunities. Most of the working population was self-employed in agriculture and off-farm activities. Wage jobs were rare. A large share of 1 OPHI 2017 2 INS 2016 3 PER 2019 4 Agricultural sector risk assessment in Niger (2013). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. Page | 5 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) agricultural workers received no income from their work. A combination of farm and off-farm activities was associated with 20 percent higher income levels on average. Off-farm diversification was also a potential risk-management and climate change adaptation strategy. Providing cash earnings throughout the year, off-farm activities represented a welcome complement to the highly seasonal subsistence agriculture. Yet off-farm productivity was constrained by lack of access to capital and skills. Moreover, two thirds of households had to abandon secondary off-farm occupations when demand for farm labor increased, keeping investments and productivity low. The poor and uneducated interrupted off-farm activities more often. 6. Multiple constraints prevented youths from engaging in more productive employment and labor productivity was stifled by extremely low levels of education. Core constraints were related to lack of access to capital, weak skills, limited aspirations and poor information on employment opportunities, restrictive social norms, as well as lack of access to markets and inputs. Constraints related to aspirations and social norms were particularly strong for women.5 Youths reported social and family pressure against migration and innovation, a constraint that affects women disproportionately. Almost half of the youths felt obliged to have the same occupation as their parents.6 7. Youth employment appeared as a strategic priority in several documents and initiatives, but programs failed to tackle the core constraints to productive employment. Documents such as the Strategy for Sustainable Development and Inclusive Growth Niger 2035 (Stratégie de Développement Durable et de Croissance Inclusive Niger 2035), the Economic and Social Development Plan 2017-2021 (Plan de Développement Économique and Social, PDES), and the 2011 National Social Protection Policy (Politique Nationale de la Protection Sociale) mentioned youth employment as a priority. Under the leadership of the Ministry of Employment, Work and Social Protection (Ministère de l’Emploi, du Travail et de la Protection Sociale, MEWSP), many technical ministries, and institutions were working on youth employment issues. Programs, however, tended to focus on urban youths with relatively high levels of education, and employment and entrepreneurship in the formal sector. Core constraints preventing youth, particularly rural youth, from engaging in productive employment were overlooked, and off-farm self-employment and micro-enterprises were less considered, despite their importance for poverty reduction. Theory of Change (Results Chain) 8. The Niger Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (Projet d’Emploi des Jeunes et Inclusion Productive, PEJIP) sought to improve employment outcomes for poor and vulnerable youth taking into account the country's economic landscape. The project’s Theory of Change (TOC), outlined in the project appraisal document (PAD), has been retrofitted for this Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR). With most Nigeriens engaged in low-productivity economic activities and susceptible to climate-related shocks, the project emphasized the potential for productivity gains through diversification into off-farm activities and the development of agricultural value chains. The project implemented an integrated package of services aimed at boosting productivity and promoting diversification of activities by alleviating key constraints faced by youth, including limited access to skills, capital, and markets. Given the prevalence of self-employment and the scarcity of wage employment in poorer areas, the project focused on strengthening or diversifying micro-enterprises managed by youth, with the potential for downstream benefits such as job creation. Furthermore, considering the contextual differences in skills and value chain opportunities in rural and urban areas, the project envisaged two different streams for micro-enterprises and income generation activities (IGAs). The retrofitted TOC goes beyond the project document, establishing linkages between hiring municipality employment agents and the expanding employment services at local level. 5 Bossuroy et al., 2018 6 ENISED 2016 Page | 6 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) Figure 1: Theory of Change Activities Outputs PDO outcomes Long-term outcomes Comp. 1. Youth productive Nr. Beneficiaries inclusion in rural areas Integrated package delivery completing life skills and entrepreneurship Youths in rural areas Set-up and coach Village Loans trainings. start, grow, or diversify & Saving Associations their activities. Nr. beneficiaries who Capital support to business received start-up start-up. capital support Nr. Beneficiaries insertion in semi-urban Integrated package delivery completing vocational Comp. 2. Youth trainings. Youth in peri-urban areas areas Vocational trainings Improved employment Nr. beneficiaries who engaged in income outcomes for the youths Start-up support (cash or in- received start-up generating activities kind) capital support Nr communal Comp. 3. Institutional support Hire community employment and program management employment agents agents. hired and trained Set employment services at Nr. youth who use Employment services municipality level. communal extended to communal employment services level Carry out an impact evaluation Impact evaluation completed. Critical assumptions and risks: • Third party implementation would reduce security risks. • Multisectoral capacity building would help dealing with fragmented sector. • Hiring experienced staff would overcome the limited institutional capacity. • Strict procedures and covenant would reduce fiduciary risks. Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 9. The project development objective (PDO) was to expand income-generating activities for youths in selected poor areas in the Republic of Niger. This PDO remained unchanged throughout the project’s lifecycle. 10. The project targeted 40,000 youths aged 15-25, living in selected rural and semi-urban areas in the eight regions of Niger. Forty communes were selected based on poverty and insecurity.7 Three-fourths of total beneficiaries (30,000) were selected in poor communes and one-fourth (10,000) in highly insecure communes. 7Commune-level poverty estimates produced by the National Statistical Institute (INS) and the World Bank; Security risk measured by the United Nation Department of Safety and Security Page | 7 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 11. The PDO was articulated around a simple statement with four PDO indicators (PDIs). These are presented in Table 1. The results framework also included three intermediate results indicators and seven intermediate outcomes indicators. Table 1: PDO indicators PDI1: Beneficiaries of labor market programs (number, Corporate Results Indicator, CRI) • Beneficiaries of labor market programs – Female (number) PDI2: Share of rural beneficiaries in component 1 who start, grow, or diversify their economic activity after receiving the integrated support package (percentage) • Share of female rural beneficiaries in component 1 who start, grow, or diversify their economic activity after receiving the integrated support package (percentage) PDI3: Share of urban or semi-urban beneficiaries in component 2 who are engaged in an income generating activity for which they received support (percentage) • Share of female urban or semi-urban beneficiaries in component 2 who are engaged in an income generating activity for which they received support (percentage) PDI4: Share of beneficiaries satisfied with the project (percentage) Components 12. Component 1: Youth productive inclusion in rural areas (US$14.5 million International Development Association [IDA], at approval, US$16.1 million IDA after restructuring; US$15.7 million actual at closing). Component 1 revolved around the provision of an integrated package of cross-cutting support services aimed at addressing key barriers to more productive youth employment in rural areas, especially among young women. The component was targeted at youth savings and credit groups with 15 to 30 members following the basic Village Savings And Loans Associations (VSLA)8 methodology. VSLAs were offered awareness raising workshops focused on psychosocial constraints that weight on their choices, particularly young women’s choices. They were also offered life skills and micro-entrepreneurship training, including information on local economic and employment opportunities. VSLAs were also entitled to capital support consisting of a grant in two tranches to enable investments in new income-generating activities or productivity increases in existing activities. VSLAs were accompanied throughout intensive, development and maturity phases9, for a total of nine months. During the start- up of their business activities, participants were supported to access markets and link with employment and municipality services. Throughout the process, VSLAs had access to coaching, follow-up, as well as sports and cultural activities, to strengthen their life skills and group cohesion. 8 Association Villageoise d'Épargne et Crédit – AVEC in French. VSLAs are accompanied through three different phases: a) intensive phase (organizational development), b) development phase (autonomy), and c) maturity phase (final accompaniment). Sahel Recherche SARL adapted the approach, integrating modules on life skills and entrepreneurship. 9 In the intensive phase, VSLAs received organizational development support and training on themes related to savings mobilization and credit management operations. Five relevant topics were covered in weekly visits carried out during five months. In the development phase, VSLAs were prepared towards autonomy. For two months, visits happened every two weeks and trainings were focused on activity planning, monitoring and evaluation, partnership, and negotiation. The maturity phase lasted other two months. In total, newly created VSLAs were accompanied for nine months. Page | 8 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) 13. Component 2: Youth insertion in selected activities in semi-urban areas (US$8 million IDA at approval, US$5.5 after restructuring; US$5.2 million actual at closing). Component 2 was intended to contribute to creating direct jobs and improving the potential for better jobs with a focus on peri urban areas. The component was targeted at individual youths interested in engaging in economic activities that (a) were potentially income-generating; (b) had a social value, positive impact, or spillover effect in the local economy; (c) were applicable in other regions; and (d) were accessible to young people after a short-term technical training, with a reasonable start-up capital. Furthermore, selected activities should be attractive and accessible to both men and women. 14. Component 3: Institutional Support and Project Management (US$7.5 million IDA at approval, US$8.3 after restructuring; US$7.4 million actual at closing) was subdivided into three sub-components: • Subcomponent 3.1 supported decentralized services aimed at promoting employment and micro- entrepreneurship (US$1.5 million; US$1.7 million after restructuring; US$1.35 million actual at closing). It included information, awareness-raising, and guidance to youths who were self-employed or employed in small businesses in rural areas. The component aimed at extending services provided by the National Agency for Employment (Agence Nationale pour la Promotion de l'Emploi, ANPE) in the municipalities covered by Component 1, with the creation of municipal employment offices and the recruitment of both male and female municipal employment agents. It also aimed at promoting the adaptation of ANPE’s services to rural specificities. • Subcomponent 3.2 supported coordination in the employment sector (US$1,5 million; US$1.6 million after restructuring; US$0.65 million actual at closing), including (a) the implementation of the national employment policy by the Government; (b) the creation of an inter-ministerial committee to work as an intersectoral discussion platform on employment policies; and (c) the integration between social protection and employment systems, starting from the Unified Social Registry. • Subcomponent 3.3 supported project management (US$4.5 million; US$5.1 million after restructuring; US$5.4 million actual at closing). It covered fiduciary matters, communication, planning, data collection, monitoring, and evaluation, including the development of necessary systems. The component also involved the establishment and maintenance of a steering committee responsible for overseeing the implementation of the project. B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets 15. The project was restructured once, on April 25, 2022, to incorporate Midterm Review (MTR) recommendations. The restructuring did not change the PDO but the total number of beneficiaries increased (outcome target). Revised PDO Indicators 16. The results framework indicators remained unchanged but target values relative to number of beneficiaries were revised. The restructuring increased overall beneficiary targets (except for one indicator), while moving the emphasis to rural youth and commensurately reducing beneficiaries under component 2. Refer to table 2 for changes in PDO intermediate results indicators targets and to table 3 for changes in the number of beneficiaries in each component. Page | 9 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) Table 2: Changes in PDO and intermediate results indicators targets PDO indicators End target Original Restructuring Beneficiaries of labor market programs (number) 40,000 41,000 • Beneficiaries of labor market programs – Female (number) 20,000 20,500 Intermediate Results Indicators Youth groups formed (component 1) (number) 1,000 1,400 Beneficiaries completing life skills training (component 1 and 2) (number) 36,000 37,000 Beneficiaries completing micro-entrepreneurship training (component 1 and 2) 36,000 37,000 (number) Beneficiaries who received start-up capital support (component 1 and 2) (number) 36,000 37,000 Village coaches identified and trained (component 1 and 3) (number) 400 450 Beneficiaries who completed technical training (component 2) (number) 7,200 4,400 Table 3: Changes in the number of beneficiaries across components Beneficiaries Original project document Result framework targets Component 1 32,000 36,600 Component 2 8,000 4,400 Total 40,000 41,000 Revised Components 17. Project funds were reallocated between components. Based on the MTR recommendations, part of the funds initially allocated to component 2 was reallocated to components 1 and 3. Disbursement categories were adjusted accordingly, to: (a) enable the implementation and payment of cash contributions to the increased number of beneficiaries under component 1 of the project (category 2), and (b) further strengthen institutional support activities (category 1). Remaining excess funds were reallocated to component 3, to strengthen the institutional support provided by the project. Table 4 presents the changes between original and revised costs by components. Table 4: Reallocation of project costs among components (US$ million equivalent) Components Original amount Revised amount restructuring Component 1 14.5 16.1 Component 2 8.0 5.5 Component 3 7.5 8.3 Component 3.1 (1.5) (1.7) Component 3.2 (1.5) (1.6) Component 3.3 (4.5) (5.1) Total 30.0 30.0 Page | 10 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) 18. The reallocation of resources from component 2 to component 1 translated into an increased number of the total number of project beneficiaries. The targeted number of beneficiaries in component 1 increased by 4,600, among which 3,600 were reallocated from component 2; and the remainder were additional beneficiaries given the lower implementation cost per beneficiary of component 1. Other Changes 19. The government recommended the replacement of some originally targeted communes where insecurity risks hampered implementation, despite the adoption of mitigation measures. The initial target was to concentrate 30 percent of PEJIP’s activities in geographical areas bordering insecure areas but still accessible, to prevent youth migration and enrollment in armed groups. The project document recognized insecurity as a major risk and recommended reducing beneficiary coverage in case of growing insecurity. Due to increased insecurity in some provinces, the MTR recommended changes in the target areas. In consultation with local authorities and the population, ten insecure communes out of 40 were replaced with communes with lower security risks in the same regions. In the new communes only rural activities were implemented. Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change 20. The restructuring had no implications on the TOC or on the originally expected outcomes. To allow the project to reach the target number of beneficiaries and expand their income-generating activities, the MTR recommended increasing the number of beneficiaries of component 1 and reduce beneficiaries from component 2 through a reallocation of funds between components and expenditure categories. This reallocation of funds was justified by the slower implementation pace of peri-urban activities under component 2 while rural activities under component 1 were advancing as planned, at a lower cost per beneficiary. This allowed for an increase in the total number of project beneficiaries by 1,000. II. OUTCOME A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs 21. The relevance of PDOs is rated High. 22. The PDO is consistent with the latest World Bank Country Partnership Framework (CPF, 2018-22)10 and addresses the key Fragile, Conflict, and Violence (FCV) risks identified in the framework. It is consonant with the priority of “boosting Niger’s human capital” by addressing key factors to tackle youth unemployment in the country’s poorest areas, while promoting a sense of identity and inclusion within a secular context. The PDO is also strongly aligned with aim of breaking the poverty cycle and building resilience, as it specifically targets impoverished youths residing in the poorest and most insecure areas. The PDO is aligned with the priority of modernizing Niger’s rural economy, by ensuring that youths are directly empowered by income earning activities, have access to training opportunities and a decreased potential for radicalization. It also aims at reducing FCV drivers by targeting conflict-affected areas where youth and other population groups are vulnerable to rising tensions, helping to break cycles of insecurity, marginalization, and violence. Finally, it contributes to reaching the youth more closely through proximity employment services. 10 The 2022 Progress and Learning Review extended the 2018-22 CPF for Niger by one year to consolidate results and emphasize climate change resilience. This extension was intended to facilitate the update of the Systematic Country Diagnostic in 2023, which would inform the next CPF and align it with Niger's 2022-2026 PDES. However, the process was disrupted by a coup d'état in July 2023. Page | 11 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) 23. The PDO is aligned with the government’s Social and Economic Development Plan (PDES 2022-26), particularly axis one, which revolves around social inclusion and the National Solidarity Program. One of the critical PDES objectives is to create jobs in the productive sectors, yearly increasing the number of youths trained in entrepreneurship and integrated in productive sectors. One of its targets is to integrate 500,000 youth in the economic circuit in the period 2022-26. The PDO is also aligned with the third axis of the PDES, which is focused on the structural transformation of the economy, with a program aimed at developing the private sector and providing active support to youth entrepreneurship. Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating 24. The rating is high because the project remained highly relevant to the current World Bank CPF and national policies. There is clear and strong evidence of the PDO alignment with key CPF objectives and the relevant national policies. The PDO also addressed the key FCV risks identified in the framework. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome 25. The efficacy of the project is rated High. 26. The project had a single PDO “to expand income-generating activities for youths in selected poor areas in Niger.” 27. At the end of the project, all PDO indicators exceeded the expected end targets. Their achievement rate is presented in the table 5. Table 5: PDIs, end targets, final achievements, and realization rates PDO indicators Baseline End Achievement Achievement target rate PDI1. Beneficiaries of labor market programs (number) - 41,000 48,115 117.4% • Beneficiaries of labor market programs – Female - 20,500 28,50 139.0% (number) PDI2. Share of rural beneficiaries in component 1 who - 75% 99.91% 133.2% start, grow, or diversify their economic activity after receiving the integrated support package (percentage) • Share of female rural beneficiaries in component 1 - 75% 95.48% 127.3% who start, grow, or diversify their economic activity after receiving the integrated support package (percentage) PDI3. Share of urban or semi-urban beneficiaries in - 70% 84% 120.4% component 2 who are engaged in an income generating activity for which they received support (percentage) • Share of female urban or semi-urban beneficiaries in - 70% 96% 136.5% component 2 who are engaged in an income generating activity for which they received support (percentage) Page | 12 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) PDI4. Share of beneficiaries satisfied with the project - 90% 96% 106.7% (percentage) 28. The project reached a higher number of beneficiaries compared to the revised higher targets, showing effectiveness and agility to include new beneficiaries as opportunity arose. A total of 48,115 youths (against the 41,000 planned) benefited from the labor market program. Extra 1,000 beneficiaries were included thanks to the project restructuring. In 2022-23, the project was able to expand its scope to reach an additional 7,115 rural beneficiaries, taking advantage of the extra resources resulting from the favorable exchange rate. 29. Beneficiaries’ attendance in training and coaching activities and their satisfaction with the project reached nearly 100 percent, underlining the success of the project in engaging beneficiaries. 96 percent of beneficiaries were satisfied with the project. The same rate of satisfaction was obtained with a survey conducted with the beneficiaries of the first two cohorts, and from the impact evaluation conducted on a random sample of 3,373 households of the third beneficiaries’ cohort. Participation in life skills sessions and in micro-entrepreneurship and technical trainings reached 99.9 percent in component 1 and 99.6 percent in component 2. 30. The rural component of the project had a significant impact on the engagement of beneficiaries in off-farm activities and increased investments in small livestock. Project monitoring found that nearly all rural beneficiaries (99.9 percent) started, increased, or diversified their economic activities after having received the integrated support package. Individual grants amounted to 100,000 FCFA (Franc of the African Financial Community, approximately US$200 equivalent) and aimed at financing the implementation of IGAs. Findings of the impact evaluation11 show that beneficiary households were more likely to be engaged in off-farm IGA than the control group. The average number of off-farm IGAs per household was 50 percent higher among beneficiaries. One third of beneficiary households were engaged in at least one off-farm IGA, which represented around 40 percent more than the control group. The impact evaluation also found that beneficiary households were engaged in more diversified activities and their monthly gains were twice those of non-beneficiary households. IGAs produced a 20 percent increase in household ownership of small livestock, with a particular impact on the diversity of animals. 31. A total of 4,681 youths in peri-urban areas completed life skills, entrepreneurship, and technical trainings, and received financial support to start off-farm and non-farm IGAs. A total of 1,351 youths (28.9 percent) received start-up kits for activities related to non-farm activities, such as, plumbing, mechanics, mobile phone repairing and charging, and oil milling. The remaining 71.1 percent received a monetary transfer of FCFA 150,000, mainly for off- farm activities aimed at increasing the value of farm products within the local supply chain. The main off-farm activity was animal fattening, undertaken by 41 percent of beneficiaries, particularly women, followed by oil milling (18 percent). A total of 22.1 percent of beneficiaries engaged in non-farm activities. 32. At the end of the project, 84 percent of the peri-urban youths were engaged in IGAs for which they had received support, with higher percentages among young women (96 percent) than among young men (68 percent). At baseline, only 4.3 percent of participants (2.79 percent among young women) were engaged in IGAs. Selected professions and IGAs were divided by gender. Young men could aspire to 16 selected professions/IGAs12, while women 11A Randomized Control Trial (RCT) evaluation was conducted on the last cohort (2022-2023) of the rural beneficiaries. The preliminary results have been shared with the government and World Bank team, but the final report is yet to be submitted. 12 According to the recommendation of the initial study, the 16 listed activities / livelihoods were prioritized for young men, while the first 8 activities were recommended for young girls : (1) marketing of fattened sheep; (2) marketing of poultry / guinea fowl and local hens; (3) distribution of fertilizers and seeds; (4) sale of Moringa products and by-products (leaves, tea, oil, powder); (5) Small food sales/restaurants; (6) provision of services Page | 13 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) were considered for eight more traditional activities.13 At the end of the project, a lower percentage of young men had started IGAs. According to stakeholders, this was partially due to the greater complexity of the selected non-farm activities. Their set up required more time and preparation, which was not always possible given the late reception of capital support. 33. The high proportion of female participation was a result of a gender-sensitive project design. The project benefitted 28,494 young women, who represented 59.24 percent of the total, against the target of 50 percent. Strong mobilization of young women in selected municipalities made it possible to exceed the planned target. Sensitization campaigns were carried out to encourage young women to enroll. Specialized Nongovernmental Organizations (NGOs) promoted public discussions on social and cultural norms, with a focus on gender issues that obstacle youths’ aspirations, especially regarding their integration in the productive sector. The targeting approach also aimed to promote women’s participation. When the number of pre-registered youths was higher than the quota assigned to each community, a public ballot was conducted to select beneficiaries, ensuring that at least 50 percent of them were young women. 34. The project created 1,626 VSLAs, 43 percent composed of only women, and the recruitment and training of 698 local coaches to accompany them, with positive spillover effects on non-beneficiaries. The number of VSLAs created exceeded the target (1,400) by 16 percent and the number of coaches engaged was 35 percent above the target (518). Coaches played an important role in the social mobilization of youths. To increase women’s participation, young women could create only-women groups, if considered necessary in respect of social norms. The government’s final evaluation found that 43 percent of VSLA were composed of only women, compared with 26 percent composed of only men and 31 percent mixed. When necessary, a female youth local coach was identified to specifically assist women groups. VSLAs received support to obtain legal recognition issued by competent authorities, paving the way for them to access formal finance institutions and other projects. The VSLAs were supported to obtain legal recognition according to the OHADA law.14 The VSLA model was replicated by non-beneficiaries. The government’s final evaluation identified 200 spontaneous groups in Maradi and other in Zinder and Tilllabery. 35. The project generated a positive impact on beneficiaries’ capacity to participate in savings and reduced their need to borrow money. Findings of the impact evaluation in rural areas found a significant increase in beneficiaries’ monetary contributions to savings groups. At the end of the project, the average contribution by beneficiaries was nearly double the level of contributions by the control group. Beneficiaries were also able save nearly three times more than the control group. Eventually, beneficiaries showed less need to borrow, with average borrowing amounts 50 percent lower than the control group. The government’s final evaluation found that individual contributions among surveyed VSLAs in Maradi region ranged between 100-200 CFA francs per week, with highs of up to 400-500 FCFA per week. A total of 45 percent of surveyed beneficiaries were between 21-25 years old, while 29 percent and 22 percent respectively were between 18-20 and 15-17 years old. 36. A total of 40 municipal employment agents were trained and supported by ANPE’s regional advisers, and 10 of them are being permanently incorporated into ANPE. Municipal employment agents hired by the project extended ANPE’s representation at municipal level. Their responsibilities included community outreach and communication; with Moulin Maiwando; (7) extraction of peanut oil; (8) battery recharging; (9) para-veterinary assistants; (10) marketing of fattened cattle; (11) rural mechanics / repair of water pumps; (12) collection and processing of straw and stalks; (13) installation of photovoltaic systems; (14) drilling of vegetable wells; (15) masonry / permanent materials; (16) plumbing / installation of Californian networks and other innovative irrigation systems. 13 (1) fertilizer and seed distribution; (2) marketing of local poultry/guinea fowl/chickens; (3) groundnut oil extraction, (4) moringa powder and tea; (5) snacks/food sales; (6) provision of services with Moulin Mai Wando; (7) battery charging; (8) marketing of fattened sheep 14 OHADA (Organization for the Harmonization of Business Law in Africa) Page | 14 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) interface and collaboration with actors at ‘commune’ level; supervision and facilitation of field activities conducted by local NGOs; monitoring, data collection and reporting on field activities. A total of 6,626 non-beneficiary youths accessed proximity employment services offered by municipality agents, including identification of employment difficulties and guidance on employment opportunities. Among the positive aspects of decentralized service delivery, stakeholders highlighted service proximity and diversity, as well as regular supervision, monitoring, and support to beneficiaries. Implementing partners suggested that municipal employment agents worked as the interface between beneficiaries and project structures at central and decentralized levels. Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating 37. The rating of overall efficacy is high. The project greatly expanded IGAs for youths and exceeded all targets for the PDO and intermediate outcome indicators, reaching a higher number of beneficiaries, and particularly women. The project also achieved very high levels of participation and satisfaction among beneficiaries. Findings from the impact evaluation show a very positive impact on the number and diversity of off-farm IGAs, as well as on the profit from these activities and on small livestock investments. The project significantly increased beneficiaries’ savings capacity and reduced their need for borrowing and contributed to expanding employment services at municipal level. C. EFFICIENCY Economic analysis 38. Per capita cost of integrated productive inclusion measures was in the lower range compared to similar programs in Sahelian countries. Delivering component 1 cost of US$385 per beneficiary, including project administration costs. Per capita cost in other four similar programs in Sahelian countries ranged between US$251 and US$573.15 PEJIP obtained efficiency gains by basing its design and implementation on the learning from successful programs and adapting existing tools to the needs of its target groups. 39. PEJIP achieved significant productive outcomes with a lower capital support compared to other productive inclusion programs focused on labor and jobs. A cross-country review16 of lumpsum grants for productive investments found different average values depending on the type of program: US$222 in Social Safety Net programs and US$416 in Labor and Jobs programs. Social Safety Net programs combine productive inclusion with regular cash transfers to smooth consumption, therefore set lower values for productive grants. Labor and Jobs programs, instead, focus on increasing productive incomes, therefore offer higher grants. PEJIP’s capital support was set at FCFA 100,000 (US$188) but reached significant outcomes in terms of diversification of income activities and investments in productive assets. 40. The threefold increase in savings among beneficiaries compared to the control group highlights several potential positive effects on economic sustainability. In the five-month period after the formation of the savings groups, individuals were able to save US$15, averaging US$3 per month. This amount is US$12 more than the control group over five months, or US$2.40 more per month. With savings tripled, beneficiaries enjoyed greater financial security and enhanced their investment capacity, fostering economic growth and self-sufficiency. Improved access to credit and the empowerment resulting from increased savings could further support entrepreneurial activities and proactive financial management. Additionally, pooled resources from savings groups could be used to fund groups and community initiatives, bolstering community economic development. 15 Regional technical workshop on the productive inclusion programs for the adaptive safety net systems in the Sahel. Dakar 2022 16 Archibald, E., Bossuroy T., Premand P., 2021. Page | 15 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) 41. Skills development is expected to play a crucial role in enhancing economic efficiency beyond the project. The project brought about a significant diversification of off-farm activities and an increase in household profit from IGAs by an average of US$3.5 per month compared to the control group. In the long term, these immediate economic gains, coupled with youth skills development through participation in savings groups, life skills development, and entrepreneurship trainings, are expected to improve employability, enabling youths to secure better jobs or consolidate successful businesses. Furthermore, the increased productivity from better-trained individuals will lead to higher incomes and economic contributions within their communities. 42. To address some initial limitations related to the purchase of start-up kits, the project topped up the capital support provided to urban beneficiaries (component 2). Capital support for professional activities in peri-urban areas was FCFA 150,000 (US$282), and it was provided in cash except for mill processing and technical professions, for which capital support was provided in-kind. For some technical professions (e.g., rural mechanics, phone repairing), the value was not enough for beneficiaries to purchase start-up kits. In some cases, this limitation was overcome with group purchases. Lack of resources to purchase raw material was another bottleneck to start off-farm activities (e.g. food processing, animal fattening). In such cases, co-financing was possible for most beneficiaries, but not for some of the poorest and resourceless participants, hindering the start of their activities. To address this obstacle, the project used the budget balance resulting from exchange rate gains to grant urban youth beneficiaries a top-up of FCFA 5,000 (around US$8). Aspects of design and implementation 43. The project devised appropriate procurement strategies and used project restructuring to overcome delays related to procurement issues, which initially affected implementation pace. The project introduced effective measures to reduce the number and frequency of procurement processes, which allowed for timely service delivery. Intervention areas were grouped in three zones based on their proximity, with one single NGO covering an entire zone. A clause was inserted in contracts with service providers making it possible to automatically extend contracts based on the satisfactory performance in the previous cycle. Initial differences in the implementation pace of components 1 and 2 created cost-inefficiencies for NGOs delivering the same services in both components. Delays in component 2 implementation were the main reason for restructuring the project, reallocating budget, and beneficiaries from component 2 to component 1, increasing project efficiency and implementation timeliness. 44. PEJIP improved efficiency in the delivery of project activities at community level by resorting to municipal employment agents. This represented an innovation in the Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program model17, which rely on local NGOs and coaches to deliver the integrated package. Municipal employment agents enhanced the reach, relevance, and effectiveness of the project activities, particularly in addressing the unique challenges faced by rural youths in Niger. The role played by municipal employment agents ensured that PEJIP could adapt to local contexts, engage effectively with the community and local authorities, and deliver the expected outcomes. 45. Having similar activities under different components delivered by the same NGO in each zone significantly contributed to project efficiency. Activities such as community sensitization, targeting, registration, and group establishment were common to the two project components and implemented by the same NGO in each zone. This minimized costs related to procurement, training, and transport. A comparative analysis with similar programs in Sahel 17 The Sahel Adaptive Safety Net Program tested integrated productive packages in Senegal, Mauritania, Chad, Niger, and Burkina Faso. The complete package includes awareness and sensitization campaigns, savings and credit groups, skills and entrepreneurship training, start-up business capital and access to markets. Page | 16 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) shows that the average costs of PEJIP were up to four times lower, which is reflected in the total lower cost of delivering the PEJIP’s integrated package. 46. The project maintained high operational efficiency despite its challenging implementation in high-risk municipalities, which required costly adaptations. Security measures included recruiting trainers locally, hiring vehicles and drivers from the area, and using telephones to communicate remotely with communities. NGOs reduced the duration of field activities to a maximum of three to four hours to allow officers and trainers who did not reside in the communities to return to the main centers before dark. Trainings engaged smaller groups to avoid the risks of crowded gatherings. In Diffa, NGOs had to carry out some activities in camps for internally displaced people, where youths from the original beneficiary communities had been displaced. All these adaptations required more days in the field, necessitating the employment of more personnel and increasing travel costs. Thanks to efficient coordination with the implementing partners, these increased costs could be handled without burdening the project administration. 47. Project administrative cost ratio18 decreased over time and was maintained within international standards (ten percent). Administrative cost ratio is often used as an indicator of implementation efficiency. Project administrative cost ratio started at 49.2 percent, due to large physical investments needed to kick-off activities in 2018, and remained high during 2019 because of implementation delays, particularly related to component 2. After 2021, with the roll-out of activities, administrative costs decreased, settling at nine and ten percent in 2022 and 2023, respectively.19 48. The project was effective in executing 93.81 percent of the budget within the project period with no need for extension. Initially, the project disbursement rate remained between 32 percent (2020) and 41 percent in (2021) but increased to about 70 percent in 2022 and 2023. The project effectively used additional FCFA 1.280 billion (US$2.2 million), equivalent to eight percent of the initial budget, resulting from the advantageous exchange rate, to increase the number of component 1 beneficiaries and the size of the capital support provided in component 2. Assessment of Efficiency and Rating 49. Overall efficiency rating is high. Efficiency was better than expected in the sector. The project delivered the integrated package timely, using effective delivery arrangements, at lower costs compared to similar projects in the region. Administrative costs were within international standards and the project had a good budget execution rate. D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING 50. The Overall rating is Highly Satisfactory as a result of High Relevance, High Efficacy, and High Efficiency of the project. E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) 18 Administrative costs ratio was calculated as the ratio of the project admin costs (consisting of salaries of PCU employees; travel expenses and allowances; equipment rental and maintenance; operation costs; maintenance and repair of vehicles; rental and maintenance of offices, equipment, and supplies; and subscriptions), divided by project disbursements (total costs). 19 The values calculated by the ICR team. Page | 17 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) Gender 51. Young women engaged in more off-farm IGAs than men, but activities performed by young men were more profitable. Based on an initial assessment, eight activities were considered suitable to women, including food processing, and sales, but also technological occupations, such as mobile phone repairing and charging. At the end of the project, almost all women beneficiaries (99 percent) were actively engaged in IGAs in rural areas. Findings of the impact evaluation show that young women were engaged in a higher number of off-farm IGAs compared to young men, but earned less from them, suggesting that men tend to engage in more profitable activities. In peri- urban areas (component 2), the rate of beneficiaries leading new IGAs was higher among young women (96 percent) than among young men (68 percent). Institutional Strengthening 52. The project strengthened MEWSP’s capacity to expand ANPE employment services at municipality level and adapt them to the specificities of the rural context. Proximity services provided by municipal employment agents included information, awareness-raising, and guidance to youths who were self-employed or employed in small businesses in rural areas. Throughout the project, these services were accessed by 6,626 non-beneficiary youths. ANPE took part in setting-up municipal employment offices and training agents and committed to the long-term management of ten out of 40 municipal employment agents hired for the project. The successful establishment of employment services at municipality level paved the way for a stronger engagement with local actors. In the medium-term, this could translate into an opportunity to integrate employment-related aspects in municipal development plans. Mobilizing Private Sector Financing 53. The project did not mobilize private sector financing. Climate change 54. In a context where most of the population relies on low-productivity agriculture, PEJIP enhanced resilience to climate change by promoting off-farm economic diversification. Nigeriens are overwhelmingly engaged in economic activities with low productivity and vulnerable to climate shocks. Over 80 percent of the working age population is engaged in agriculture, and wages in the sector are very low. The project has generated productivity gains from increased diversification towards off-farm, non-farm and microentrepreneurial activities, strengthening youths’ risk-management strategies, as well as their ability to adapt to climate change. The expansion of employment opportunities has reduced dependence on farming and is thereby expected to improve youth resilience to climate related shocks and climate change. Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity 55. Beneficiaries experienced better consumption and food security than the control group. Using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, the impact evaluation found that households participating in project activities were Page | 18 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) less food insecure than the control group. The positive impact on food security was the same independently of the delivery modality, i.e. lump sum, or monthly transfers.20 Other Unintended Outcomes and Impact 56. Positive spillover effects were observed within beneficiary communities, where non-beneficiaries created spontaneous groups replicating the VLSA model. An ANPE sensitization mission found that 200 non-beneficiaries had started spontaneous VLSAs in the region of Maradi. VSLA groups were also formed in Zinder and Tillabery. A total of 89 percent of beneficiaries interviewed in the government’s final evaluation stated that new groups had been created mirroring VSLAs supported by PEJIP. The trickle-down effect on communities resulted in many young people motivated and keen to participate in similar initiatives. 57. Giving an economic opportunity to youths living in risk areas reduced migration and the risk of involvement with army groups. PEJIP ’s focus on reaching poor and vulnerable youths in risk areas allowed for tackling drivers of fragility, including the risk of migration and engagement in armed groups due to economic marginalization. Findings of the impact evaluation show that fostering youths’ engagement in economic activities increased and diversified their productive activities, made them more remunerative and reduced the likelihood of migration, which is often associated with involvement in armed groups. Migration rates in the previous twelve months decreased by three percent among beneficiaries compared to the control group, with a 25 percent reduction in the number of migrants. Migration rates decreased particularly among young men, with a 6.67 percent reduction compared to the control group (figure 2). Reasons to migrate were predominantly economic with lack of work opportunities at village level and search of better income mentioned by nearly 90 percent of the migrants. The project reduced both the number of youths migrating in search of work and the length of time spent away. Figure 2: Migration rates in the 12 months preceding the impact evaluation endline (total; young men) 20The impact evaluation explored project heterogeneity, considering four delivery modalities: lumpsum subsidy vs. regular cash transfers; full vs. simplified (no training) package. Page | 19 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION 58. Project design was simple and built on extensive preparatory work and learning from other regional experiences. Studies were conducted to identify potential bottlenecks for youth to enter the productive sector as well as locally suitable and promising income generating activities informed project design. A categorical targeting approach based on age-group was adopted and accompanied by balloting when demand exceeded the offer. Stakeholders judged this approach to be impartial and transparent21. To ensure equity, only one family member was allowed to register, and ballots ensured that 50 percent of selected beneficiaries were women. The productive inclusion model adopted in component 1 was built on recent experiences in Niger and the Sahel region 22, and took advantage of existing training materials, which were adapted to the context and the specificities of PEJIP’s target group. 59. Arrangements with the Adaptive Safety Nets Project (ASNP) (P123399) were made to ensure PEJIP’s implementation readiness but management issues within ASNP impacted the preparatory phase. To ensure implementation immediately after project effectiveness, an IDA advance of US$1.2 million was provided to the government of Niger. The advance was supervised by a multisectoral project preparation committee presided by a representative of the Ministry of Planning, and co-chaired by a representative of MEWSP. ASNP’s Technical Management Unit (Unité de Gestion Technique, UGT) was put in charge of preparatory activities, including writing up the project implementation manual, carrying out necessary studies, recruiting key staff for the Project Coordination Unit (PCU), and coordinating project design discussions among key national actors. However, the unexpected replacement of the UGT coordinator slowed down PEJIP’s preparatory phase. The recruitment of PEJIP’s technical team23 was finalized in July 2020, i.e. almost two years after project effectiveness. B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION a) Factors subject to the control of government and/or implementing agencies 60. PEJIP’s institutional framework involved a range of institutions which favored appropriate technical expertise and strong vertical coordination. A central PCU was set up under MEWSP, while implementation responsibilities were shared among the PCU, ANPE and the Fund for Professional Development and Learning (Fond d'Appui et la Formation Professionnelle et l'Apprentissage, FAFPA). The PCU was responsible for implementation support to rural youth productive inclusion activities under component 1, and for institutional strengthening under component 3. FAFPA led the integration of peri-urban youth in economic activities under component 2. ANPE was responsible for the set-up of municipal employment offices and the long-term management of municipal employment agents recruited by the project. 61. The project coordination and fiduciary responsibilities were divided between PCU and FAFPA. The PCU was in charge of the overall project coordination, it oversaw the implementation and held fiduciary responsibilities for components 1 and 3. FAFPA held fiduciary responsibility for component 2. The mix of fiduciary and implementation 21 PEJIP process evaluation 2022 22 Productive inclusion programs supported by the Adaptive Safety Net Project (P123399), financed by IDA and Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program trust fund 23 Initially limited to the core staff (Project Coordinator, Finance Manager and Procurement Manager), the PCU team was completed with the recruitment of an Internal Auditor, a Field Operations Manager, an M&E Manager, an M&E assistant, an Accountant, and a Business Manager. Page | 20 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) responsibilities caused initial misunderstanding and lack of acceptance of the institutional framework by the different parties. The PCU and MEWSP considered that this fiduciary arrangement exposed the project to risks. This was based on the fact that FAFPA was supervised by another Ministry and MEWSP could not play its supervision and fiduciary role when difficulties and delays occurred. This dispute required the World Bank’s arbitration (see chapter IV-C). 62. The Project Steering Committee provided useful recommendations to tackle initial coordination challenges. In 2019 and 2020, PSC recommended that MEWSP strengthened its leadership role in the coordination of youth employment actions carried out by different partners. In 2021, foreseeing delays in the operation, PSC recommended the development of a roadmap involving MEWSP, the Ministry of Planning and the PCU, aiming at increasing the rate of budget execution. Also in 2021, to overcome difficulties experienced in the procurement process of component 2, PSC recommended more regular consultations between FAFPA and PCU. This led to the creation of a restricted committee, composed of PCU’s core team, and implementing partners’ focal points, who met regularly and improved coordination and implementation speed. 63. PEJIP’s vertical coordination followed two different approaches ensuring adequate decentralization. Under component 1, it was ensured at municipality level, with municipal employment agents acting as the interface between PCU and local authorities, NGOs, and beneficiaries. At regional level, ANPE’s officers trained and supported municipal employment agents to deliver employment services. Under component 2, vertical coordination was ensured at regional level with FAFPA’s Regional Learning Advisors (Conseilleurs d’Apprentissage Régionaux, CARs) liaising with central structures (PCU/FAFPA’s focal point) as well as with NGOs and service delivery agencies in the field. The role of CARs included post-training follow-up and support to beneficiaries in the critical activity start-up period. Limited coordination between CARs and ANPE at regional level, and between CARs and municipal employment agents at municipality level reduced local synergies between components 1 and 2. 64. PEJIP’s PCU had adequate core and support staff, while FAFPA lacked dedicated staff and technical capacity at central level. This was emphasized by key stakeholders and led to unbalanced human resources between components 1 and 2. The operations manual detailed positions, competences, and roles of the PCU staff, but did not foresee dedicated human resources for implementing partners. At central level, FAFPA had a focal point, a procurement assistant, a financial assistant, and a business engineering expert responsible for all FAFPA’s operations. Only the procurement assistant and the financial assistant were fully dedicated to PEJIP. Neither the project’s operations manual nor the ‘operations agreement’ between the government and FAFPA determined the need for additional staff in key positions to manage the increased workload associated with component 2 implementation. 65. The finance manager left nine months before the project closed, allowing no time for the recruitment of a substitute and adequate handover. The outgoing manager signed a three-month handover support agreement, and the project accountant took over a financial management role. Despite these challenges, fiduciary oversight was assured through continued support and hand over by the outgoing manager and the work was deemed satisfactory. b) Factors subject to World Bank control 66. Supervision by the World Bank was adequate despite a change of the Task Team Leader (TTL) during implementation. Missions were organized regularly, initially twice a year, becoming more frequent towards the end of the project. This allowed for systematic support to the PCU and effective supervision of project implementation. Aide-memoires were thorough and of good quality. Reports discussed achievements and issues in the different components and technical areas. They also included relevant recommendations and action points, which were followed up. Page | 21 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) c) Factors outside the control of government and/or implementing agencies 67. Increased insecurity in Tillabery and Diffa threatened implementation which were mitigated with the adoption of security measures and safe community and staff engagement. To minimize security risks, the project relied on third party implementors. Community employment agents used locally hired cars and drivers for displacement (instead of motorcycles). They were equipped with mobile phones to facilitate remote communication with communities. Activities were shortened, enabling participants to return home earlier. Trainers were locally recruited and returned to the main town daily. Village groups and sensitization meetings were organized in smaller sizes and increased frequency. Public communications and messages were channeled through local radios rather than in person. Extensive monitoring and communication with local communities were primarily conducted by phone. 68. COVID-19 restrictions slowed down some key activities in early 2020, at a time when component 1 was gaining momentum. Communities had been selected, sensitizations and beneficiary identification processes were starting. Restrictions introduced between March and June 2020 included night curfew and ban on traffic in and out of Niamey and on gatherings exceeding 50 people. This affected the work of NGOs at community level. Activities resumed as soon as restrictions were lifted, thanks to the project capacity to promptly adopt COVID-19 protection measures including barrier gestures and the provision of disposable masks and gel sanitizer during gatherings. 69. Municipal elections delayed beneficiary selection. Elections took place in December 2020, when the project was selecting municipalities and beneficiaries for targeting. In municipalities where beneficiary identification timeline coincided with local elections, the process was put on hold until after election and restarted after the new local government was in place, which sometimes took a few months. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) M&E Design 70. The results framework was clear and realistic and PDO indicators were relevant and measurable. End targets were clearly formulated and achievable within the project timeframe. Indicators and end targets were built upon the TOC and helped to identify cause-effect relationships between activities, outputs, and outcomes. The PDO indicator relative to the startup, growth, and diversification of economic activities could have been disaggregated to facilitate monitoring and provide more nuanced information on the outcome. 71. M&E design included regular supervision and process monitoring, the MTR, and satisfaction surveys, and an impact evaluation. The M&E manual developed in 2020 included an M&E plan and templates to be used by implementing actors as well as a dashboard to monitor the results framework. The MTR aimed to inform potential project adjustments. Satisfaction surveys were planned for six months after the reception of the full integrated support package by beneficiaries and aimed to capture their feedback on project implementation and inform delivery improvements over time. 72. Impact evaluation was built on experimental design and aimed to measure the productive package impact on beneficiaries. Communities in nine municipalities were selected for a randomized control trial. In addition to the control group, four treatment arms compared the effectiveness of different project modalities. In half the villages beneficiaries received the complete package; in the other half, beneficiaries received a simplified package (no training Page | 22 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) included). Whitin each of these two groups, beneficiaries in half of the villages received lump-sum subsidies (as per project design); in the other half, beneficiaries received the same value in six monthly payments. Evaluation questions were focused on project effects on income generating activities and revenues, assets, financial outcomes, well-being, and migration. Design included research questions regarding impact heterogeneity associated with gender and delivery modality. Box. 1. PEJIP’s impact evaluation 73. PEJIP’s impact evaluation was conducted from 2021 to 2023. The methodology consisted in a randomized control trial across nine communes in Diffa, Tillabéri, and Tahoua regions. Within randomly selected villages, potential beneficiaries aged 15-25 who were no longer in school were identified through a lottery system. Baseline data was collected in July 2022, before the intervention, and follow-up data was collected in June 2023, three months after the last cash transfer. The study included 3,373 individuals and their households. Short-term impacts were measured on income-generating activities, financial engagement, material and psychological well-being, and migration. Econometric analyses were performed to determine the significance of the impact, using ANCOVA specifications to control pre-intervention variables. Four treatment groups were created based on the type of package received (complete or simplified) and the transfer modality used (regular monthly payments for six months or a single lump sum payment). The control group included individuals in villages where PEJIP was not implemented. Key findings from the impact evaluation include: - Income generating activities and profit: a nine-percentage point rise in the number of households with at least one non-agricultural AGR and an average of 2000 FCFA increase in household profits from AGR per month. . Asset and livestock investment: a significant but modest increase in household assets related to AGR, and a notable investment in livestock, particularly small animals (sheep and goats). - Financial engagement: participation in tontines (savings groups) nearly doubled, savings almost tripled, while debt levels significantly decreased. Migration: reduction by 3 percentage points (approximately 25 percent), aligned with the creation of local economic opportunities and improved financial engagement. - Household well-being: increase durable goods ownership and slight improvement in mental health, as well as a positive impact on food security. 74. Differences were observed between male and female beneficiaries, with men investing more in livestock and women showing stronger initial engagement in economic activities. The program had significant effects on reducing male migration and improving their mental health, suggesting that PEJIP effectively addressed economic and social vulnerabilities among youths. The analysis of heterogeneity between program modalities (different arms) was still ongoing at the time of the ICR writing. M&E Implementation 75. The M&E plan was regularly implemented with strong engagement and coordination between the central M&E unit, implementing partners, and decentralized agents. PEJIP had M&E units at central, regional, and municipal levels. At central level, the M&E unit was coordinated by the M&E manager, supported by an M&E assistant. The M&E unit Page | 23 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) and implementing partners carried out regular supervision missions and ensured data quality control. FAFPA’s CARs and ANPE’s municipal employment agents were responsible for field monitoring, supervision, and data collection. The field operations manager also had monitoring responsibilities and received regular reports from service providers (NGOs, private firms). 76. Monitoring reports were regularly produced, consolidating information on the progress of results framework indicators. The M&E manager received monthly reports from municipal employment agents regarding component 1 and from FAFPA’s CARs regarding component 2. The field operations manager received reports from service providers. NGOs produced three types of reports: one on the initial training of trainers; one at the end of each training and a final report. NGOs responsible for VSLA trainings produced monthly reports on the funds mobilized by VSLAs, including information on deposits, credit, cash balance and interests. 77. Despite the absence of a dedicated information system, the project effectively collected and transmitted data electronically, storing it in a database at the end of the project. PEJIP was implemented in several municipalities within insecure and fragile contexts, particularly in the regions of Tillabery and Diffa. In 2022, to ensure supervision and safe data collection and transmission, the project developed online forms that were filled out on tablets and uploaded to the Kobo Toolbox platform. Data was collected by municipal employment agents, who registered information on their tablets. At the end of the project, a digital database was established by a consulting firm, to store all data related to project implementation. 78. The MTR was well-prepared, timely, and transformational, effectively addressing challenges to accelerate progress towards the PDOs. The MTR was concluded in January 2022 and followed by a process evaluation commissioned by the World Bank to identify bottlenecks and potential improvements in coordination, procurement, and service delivery. Both exercises were successful in identifying bottlenecks and proposing measures to overcome implementation delays. A beneficiary satisfaction survey was administered by municipal employment agents on 15,216 beneficiaries. 79. The impact evaluation was implemented as planned. Baseline and endline surveys were carried out in 135 villages in nine municipalities in the regions of Diffa, Tillaberi and Tahoua. Data collection was carried out on the second cohort (2022-23). Baseline data was collected in July 2022. End line data was collected a few months after the delivery of the subsidies, in June 2023. The survey was conducted on 3,373 households in 135 communities, including the control group and four treatment groups. The rationale for conducting the impact evaluation on the second cohort was to evaluate delivery mechanism effectiveness once they had been piloted and stabilized. However, having the end-line only a few months after the start of income generating activities limited the analysis of their cost-effectiveness and durability. 80. The project was able to regularly measure the results framework indicators and the computerization of the information system was achieved towards the end of the project. Data on PDO and intermediary indicators was regularly collected to inform the progress of the project. No major issue was experienced in the interpretation and measurement of indicators. While automation was foreseen in project design, monitoring data was collected on paper forms. The plan to develop online forms to be filled out in tablets and uploaded on the kobo toolbox platform was implemented only at the end of the project. Twenty tablets were purchased and delivered to municipal employment agents, who were trained in the use of toolbox forms. Page | 24 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) M&E Utilization 81. M&E processes allowed for monitoring the results framework indicators, helped to identify areas for improvement and informed project restructuring. Quarterly reports and process monitoring informed on the progress of PDO and intermediate indicators. Recommendations from the mid-term review and process evaluation were taken onboard and tackled initial implementation challenges, promoting a more efficient allocation of resources between components, and allowing for a substantial increase in the initial PDO targets. Except for the analysis required to measure results framework indicators, no disaggregation or further analysis was carried out. 82. The impact evaluation was carried out at the end of the project and its findings enriched the ICR, particularly with respect to demonstrating the project’s effectiveness and outcomes. The evaluation provided valuable information on the positive impact of rural productive inclusion on the profit and diversification of economic activities, savings and credit behaviors, household consumption asset ownership and youth migration. The impact evaluation findings represent an important contribution to inform future youth employment policies. Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E 83. M&E quality rating is high. Overall, the M&E system, as designed and implemented, was more than sufficient to inform adjustments in the project, assess the achievement of objectives, and to provide contributions to future policies and programs. The mid-term review and process evaluation helped to address implementation issues and promote necessary design adjustments. Findings of the impact evaluation were valuable to explain PDO achievement, including unexpected impact. Shortcomings in M&E design and implementation were limited to the lack of an automated data collection and management information system. B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE 84. The project did not trigger safeguard policies. No significant adverse environmental impact was expected, and the project was classified as “category C.” Continuous monitoring by local agents and NGOs ensured that small-scale activities undertaken by beneficiaries had no adverse social or environmental impact. Training modules included preventive environmental guidelines and capacity building of beneficiaries on risk identification and management by type of activity. VLSA training included specific sessions on activity planning and integrating risk management principles and approaches. 85. Communication and engagement with local stakeholders were ensured by local NGOs and a network of community youth coaches and municipal employment agents. These local actors represented the main channel for communities, youths, beneficiaries, and non-beneficiaries to request information, raise issues and provide feedback. Sessions on conflict prevention, management, and resolution were part of VLSA training, which started with a social mobilization phase, including consultations with community leaders and youths. Local NGOs conducted regular activity monitoring, in which capturing participants’ feedback was a key component. A strong sensitization process with communities was carried out to identify cultural and gender issues that could create obstacles for youths and women to participate in project activities and the economic sector in general. 86. A formal grievance management mechanism (GRM) was not developed at the start of the project, but complaints were effectively managed through local mechanisms. During the registration process, complaint committees were established in each village, consisting of the village chief, a youth representative, a women's representative, and Civil Society Organization representatives (as defined in the operations manual). NGOs also set up Page | 25 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) monitoring committees as part of the enrolment and registration process. These mechanisms also operated during cash payments and kits distributions. Besides, channels available for beneficiaries to communicate with the project were ensured by local youth coaches, municipal employment agents and FAFPA’s regional focal points. Following recommendations from the World Bank and exchanges with other projects with similar activities, the PMU initiated a process to develop a formal GRM accompanied by an action plan. As part of the implementation of this plan, trainings were conducted for the forty (40) municipal employment agents on how to receive and address grievances. 87. The high number of procurement processes planned under component 1 represented a significant challenge but was mitigated. The broad geographical coverage of the project and the many services and training to be contracted with local and specialized agencies would have required 56 recruitments per cycle. This number was significantly reduced with measures that included grouping intervention areas and automatically extending NGO contracts to more cycles based on their satisfactory performance (see discussion in chapter II-C – Efficiency). 88. Under component 2, procurement difficulties delayed vocational training activities by two years but were eventually overcome. Challenges included: (a) lack of knowledge of service providers’ capacity and availability to carry out different thematic trainings; (b) poor capacity of vocational training centers24; (c) lack of clarity on the type of service providers to be contracted; and iv) lack of flexibility to adapt communication channels when advertising calls for expressions of interest. These challenges were overcome with changes in the procurement process which shifted towards private service providers. 89. The financial management system in place was rated as satisfactory by the World Bank’s supervision missions and the external financial audit. As mandated in the financing agreement, the finance manual was prepared at the beginning of the project. In 2020, the manual was revised to reflect the evolution of the PEJIP’s processes. Semiannual financial reports and annual financial statements were produced timely and considered of acceptable quality. External financial audits were conducted regularly, timely and in accordance with the financing agreement conditions. Administrative, accounting, and financial procedures were considered as satisfactory to the World Bank. 90. Annual Work Plans and Budgets (AWPBs) were prepared in a timely fashion, but delays were experienced in the no-objection process, affecting procurement timeliness. In the first years, AWPBs were approved as late as April. In 2023, due to the limited time left for project completion, the World Bank issued no-objection to the AWPB in January, on the condition that specific non-objections would be requested for each activity before its implementation. This allowed for an early start of the activities compared to previous years. C. BANK PERFORMANCE Quality at Entry 91. Project design was based on the main conclusions and recommendations of two World Bank preliminary studies25 and lessons learnt from regional programs. The two studies highlighted core constraints to productive employment of youths in Niger. The choice of support packages to address these constraints was based on international evidence on the effectiveness of integrated interventions. Operationally, the design and delivery mechanisms of the integrated support package under component 1 drew on lessons from five Sahelian countries that were implementing productive accompanying measures as part of the Sahel Adaptive Social Protection 24 CFM Centres de Formation aux Métiers. 25 Niger Jobs Assessment (Bossuroy et al., 2017), and Qualitative Constraints Assessment (Bossuroy, Koussoube and Premand, 2018) Page | 26 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) Program.26 The involvement of municipal employment agents to upscale simple frontline services, such as savings groups facilitation and coaching, was based on lessons learned from other projects. Benin’s Youth Employment Project (P132667), for instance, had already supported the recruitment and placement of local employment agents at municipality level. 92. The project’s institutional framework took the best advantage of the vocation and experience of technical ministries and institutions working with youth employment in the country. An initial decision was made to anchor the project to a technical ministry, rather than to the Prime Minister’s Office or the Ministry of Planning. The choice for MEWSP was based on its overall experience with employment issues and regional presence across the country. MEWSP was also well-positioned to promote synergies between national employment and social protection systems, which was a key PEJIP feature. The choice of ANPE was based on its technical expertise and experience with placing the unemployed and retraining young graduates. FAFPA, instead, was the lead organization in implementing short-term professional training programs. It had strong links with the private sector and the chambers of commerce and counted on regional committees and local representatives throughout the country. Both ANPE and FAFPA had been actively involved in the implementation of other youth employment projects, including the World Bank-funded Skills Development for Growth Project (Projet de Développement des Compétences pour la Croissance, PRODEC P126049). Quality of Supervision 93. Along with providing regular supervision, the World Bank readily adjusted the frequency of implementation missions to ensure timely support to the PIU and produced candid and good quality reports. Supervision missions were regularly carried out throughout the project, allowing for systematic support to the PCU and effective oversight of project implementation. Along with regular supervision, more frequent implementation support missions were organized by the World Bank team to provide just-in-time support to the PIU. The reports discussed achievement and issues in the different components and technical areas. They included relevant recommendations and action points, which were followed up on. 94. The World Bank team's supervision and strong intermediation role ensured the smooth and successful implementation of the project. Their consistent support facilitated effective institutional coordination in a setting that involved a complex share of fiduciary and implementation responsibilities between the public and private sectors. The World Bank provided effective technical supervision and support to overcome challenges related to insecurity and to enhance project efficiency through timely and effective procurement improvements. 95. The World Bank supported the project team in devising appropriate procurement strategies to ensure timely and efficient delivery of the integrated packages. The World Bank effectively introduced measures to reduce the number and frequency of procurement processes foreseen in component 1 by zoning service delivery and automatically extending contracts based on satisfactory performance (see chapter II C). 96. The World Bank supported the government in addressing public sector limited capacity to deliver technical trainings in component 2. Following a recommendation made by the World Bank team during a supervision mission in May 2019, an assessment was commissioned to verify whether vocational training centers had adequate 26 The Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program is a multi-donor trust fund managed by the World Bank that support the strengthening of adaptive social protection systems in the Sahel to enhance the resilience of poor and vulnerable populations to the impact of climate change. The initiative focuses on five countries: Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Mauritania, and Chad. Page | 27 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) capacity. After confirming the training centers’ shortcomings, the World Bank team supported FAFPA in the decision to rely on private operators to carry out trainings (see chapter III-B). 97. The timely call for a process evaluation and mid-term review (MTR) led to project restructuring, which allowed for the timely completion of the project activities and exceeding the project development outcomes . MTR and process evaluation recommendations increased project effectiveness through restructuring. In the initial phase, the Bank commissioned a process evaluation to identify bottlenecks and potential improvements in coordination, procurement, and service delivery. The MTR provided recommendations regarding resource reallocation towards more efficient components. Recommendations were taken onboard through a project restructuring that put activities on track and created the conditions for increasing initial PDI targets when the favorable exchange rate created the opportunity. 98. The World Bank effectively supported the introduction of municipal employment agents and the government’s efforts to ensure continuity in the delivery of employment services in marginal areas. Municipal agents ensured the delivery of proximity services and engagement with communities and local authorities. At the end of the project, the World Bank team supported ANPE in conducting a series of studies27 to assess the potential for continuity of employment services in rural areas. 99. The World Bank support ensured continuity and operational efficiency in the implementation of productive inclusion activities in marginal and near conflict areas . This involved facilitating strong vertical coordination between the PCU, decentralized services and local actors, particularly NGOs. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance 100. The World Bank’s performance is highly satisfactory. Quality at entry was highly satisfactory due to robust project design built upon preliminary studies and lessons from similar projects in other countries. The project also included a strong impact evaluation. The institutional framework was coherent with the vocation of different stakeholders. The quality of supervision is rated as highly satisfactory. The World Bank provided regular, quality supervision and timely and effective support to the government to overcome the main challenges faced by the project. Recommendations emerging from the MTR and process evaluation informed the project restructuring and led to increased project effectiveness. Finally, the World Bank supported a series of studies to assess the potential for continuity of employment services initiated by the project in rural areas. D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 101. Political instability due to the overturn of the government put a temporary halt on the discussions regarding the continuity of the activities, but recent exchanges with the new government are promising. There is a strong commitment from the new government to place an increased focus on the productive inclusion of youth across Niger, even in highly insecure areas. 27Studies included the mapping of employment opportunities in the 40 municipalities targeted by the project, assessment of opportunities to integrate the work of municipality employment agents into other decentralized structures, and a feasibility study on mechanisms to support the insertion of rural youths in the labor market. Page | 28 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) 102. Persistent instability in the region may threaten individual economic gains and the sustainability of income generating activities promoted by the project. Income generating activities were conceived as an incentive for youths to remain in their areas, reducing migration, but recurring insecurity could push people towards migration or internal displacement. 103. The July 2023 coup d’état led to the suspension of new World Bank-financed operations in Niger, including the envisaged follow-on operation for institutionalization and scale-up of youth productive inclusion in lien with PDES 2020-30. On the positive side, the MEWSP committed to maintaining rural employment services in ten municipalities by incorporating ten municipal employment agents into ANPE’s structure. However, given the lack of a continued operation, the capacity of local structures to respond to the demand for employment services in rural areas will be affected. Furthermore, the sustainability of VSLAs, both those established by the project and the spontaneous ones, will depend on the government’s capacity to extend its support to these groups, with the aim to strengthen their organization, create networks and facilitate their access to markets. V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 104. Lesson 1. Youth productive inclusion programs have proven to be viable and highly effective in FCV contexts. Experience with productive inclusion has grown in Niger and in the Sahel, generating valuable evidence-based learning. PEJIP generated additional evidence that productive inclusion in near-conflict areas significantly impact youth’s access to rentable productive activities, their consumption and well-being, as well as their resilience to climate change. Recommendation. PEJIP’s productive inclusion model should be replicated and escalated at national and regional level, with the aim to enhance the economic inclusion of marginal and fragile youths. 105. Lesson 2. The project anchorage to the ministry responsible for social protection and employment allowed for expanding employment services in remote areas and for providing continued support to youth in those areas. MEWPS focused on the productive inclusion of marginal and fragile youth and relied on the expertise of the national employment agency to successfully expand employment services at municipality level, paving the way for a stronger engagement with local actors. Recommendation. As the national social protection champion, MEWPS shall have its capacity and leadership strengthened to steer the youth employment and productive inclusion agenda, ensuring linkages and coordination with safety nets and other sectors. 106. Lesson 3. Establishing effective and functional private–public partnerships contributed to the successful implementation of productive inclusion measures in near conflict areas. Framework contracts with the private sector reduced the number and frequency of procurement processes, and successfully tested the capacity of local service providers to deliver different components of the package in expanded geographical areas. Recommendation: Collaboration with local NGOs should be strengthened aiming at the development of a pool of expertise and partnership mechanisms that can ensure quality delivery of productive inclusion measures at scale. 107. Lesson 4. Simple design and in-built flexibility are key project features in FCV settings. Complex implementation arrangements are difficult to be implemented and monitored, particularly in FCV contexts. Simple processes facilitate Page | 29 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) readiness and improve flexibility to quickly adjust delivery systems to an ever-changing context. In-built monitoring and review processes inform decisions to overcome implementation and context-related challenges. Recommendation: In FCV contexts, project design should prioritize simple measures that can generate high impact and in-built mechanisms that grant flexibility and facilitate timely adjustments. 108. Lesson 5. The scale-up of productive inclusion programs requires investments in information systems, to ensure remote monitoring, connection with existing adaptive safety net systems, and appropriate grievance redress mechanisms. Automated modular information systems with electronic data collection can improve data quality, security, efficiency, and timeliness. Electronic data collection enables remote monitoring, which is crucial in FCV contexts. Leveraging on the social registry can also facilitate targeting and create synergies with other social programs. Recommendation: High efficiency, in terms of costs, time and capacity, could be gained if productive inclusion projects leverage on existing nationwide social protection systems, such as national social registries, information systems and GRM, which should be modular and adaptable to the specific needs of new users. 109. Lesson 6. By engaging poor and vulnerable youths in diversified and more remunerative economic activities, PEJIP addressed key drivers of fragility and significantly reduced migration rates. This reduction was particularly evident among young men, thereby lowering the risk of their involvement in illegal activities. Recommendation: In near conflict but still accessible areas, productive inclusion measures can be considered an instrument to reduce youth migration and their potential engagement in illicit businesses and armed groups. 110. Lesson 7. Municipal employment agents connected the project with local authorities, provided decentralized employment services, promoted community engagement and brought the voice of beneficiaries to the central level. Their collaboration with municipal structures favored the delivery of employment services in marginal and remote areas and led to the inclusion of labor market interventions in municipal development plans. Proximity agents also provided support to spontaneous VSLAs formed in the project areas. Recommendation: Decentralized services delivered by proximity agents in remote areas should be strengthened to ensure continued support to marginal youths with minimal resources, increasing the scope and coverage of productive inclusion initiatives. 111. Lesson 8. Ensuring accompaniment and supervision beyond business start-up and fostering linkages with the market and the private sector can improve the sustainability of productive inclusion activities. The support to the creation of VSLAs had spillover effects in the communities, with spontaneous savings groups springing up among non- beneficiaries. Experience in other African countries shows that extended support to VSLAs aiming to help them to create networks or federate in larger groups can increase their access to loans and facilitate their connection with local markets and financial institutions. This represents a further step towards the sustainability of these groups. Recommendation: To enhance VSLAs long-term sustainability, accompaniment should be extended over a longer period and include support to networking and linking with local markets and the private sector, • . especially financial institutions. Page | 30 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: Expand income-generating activities for youths in selected poor areas in Niger Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Beneficiaries of labor market Number 0.00 40,000.00 41,000.00 48,115.00 programs 30-Jun-2018 28-May-2018 20-Apr-2022 27-Jun-2023 Beneficiaries of labor Number 0.00 20,000.00 20,500.00 28,504.00 market programs - Female Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Official Use Only The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) Share of rural beneficiaries in Percentage 0.00 75.00 75.00 99.91 component 1 who start, grow or diversify their economic 30-Jun-2018 28-May-2018 20-Apr-2022 27-Jun-2023 activity after receiving the integrated support package Share of female rural Percentage 0.00 75.00 75.00 95.48 beneficiaries in component 1 who start, grow or 30-Jun-2018 28-May-2018 20-Apr-2022 27-Jun-2023 diversify their economic activity after receiving the integrated support package Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Share of urban or semi-urban Percentage 0.00 70.00 70.00 84.00 beneficiaries in component 2 who are engaged in an 30-Jun-2018 28-May-2018 20-Apr-2022 27-Jun-2023 income generating activity for which they received support Share of female urban or Percentage 0.00 70.00 70.00 96.00 semi-urban beneficiaries in component 2 who are 30-Jun-2018 28-May-2018 20-Apr-2022 27-Jun-2023 engaged in an income generating activity for which they received support Page | 32 Official Use Only The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Share of beneficiaries Percentage 0.00 90.00 90.00 96.00 satisfied with the project 30-Jun-2018 28-May-2018 20-Apr-2022 27-Jun-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Youth productive inclusion in rural areas Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of youth groups Number 0.00 1,000.00 1,400.00 1,626.00 formed (component 1) 22-Jan-2018 28-May-2018 20-Apr-2022 27-Jun-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Page | 33 Official Use Only The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) Number of beneficiaries Number 0.00 36,000.00 39,000.00 48,013.00 completing life skills training (component 1 and 2) 22-Jan-2018 28-May-2018 20-Apr-2022 27-Jun-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of beneficiaries Number 0.00 36,000.00 39,000.00 48,013.00 completing micro- entrepreneurship training 22-Jan-2018 28-May-2018 20-Apr-2022 27-Jun-2023 (component 1 and 2) Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of beneficiaries who Number 0.00 36,000.00 39,000.00 46,716.00 received start-up capital support (component 1 and 2) 22-Jan-2018 28-May-2018 20-Apr-2022 27-Jun-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Page | 34 Official Use Only The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) Target Completion Number of village coaches Number 0.00 400.00 550.00 698.00 identified and trained (component 1 and 3) 30-Jun-2018 28-May-2018 20-Apr-2022 27-Jun-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Component: Youth insertion in selected activities in semi-urban areas Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of beneficiaries who Number 0.00 7,200.00 4,400.00 4,681.00 completed technical training (component 2) 22-Jan-2018 28-May-2018 20-Apr-2022 27-Jun-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Component: Institutional Support and Project Management Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of youths (not Number 0.00 4,000.00 4,000.00 6,626.00 beneficiaries of component 1 and 2) who use communal 29-Jun-2018 28-May-2018 20-Apr-2022 27-Jun-2023 employment services (component 3) Page | 35 Official Use Only The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of communal Number 0.00 10.00 10.00 0.00 employment agents financed by ANPE (component 3) 28-Jun-2018 28-May-2018 20-Apr-2022 27-Jun-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Recruitment process for 10 communal employment agents that will be financed by ANPE, which was temporarily put on hold due to the coup, has now been initiated Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion The impact evaluation has Text 0.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 been completed (component 3) 29-Jun-2018 28-May-2018 20-Apr-2022 27-Jun-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): 4 = results and recommendations have been validated Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Page | 36 Official Use Only The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) Target Completion Number of communal Number 0.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 employment agents recruited and trained 22-Jan-2018 28-May-2018 20-Apr-2022 27-Jun-2023 (component 3) Comments (achievements against targets): Page | 37 Official Use Only The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT Objective/Outcome: Expand income-generating activities for youths in selected poor areas in Niger PDI 1: Beneficiaries of labor market programs (number) - Beneficiaries of labor market programs – Female (number) PDI 2: Share of rural beneficiaries in Component 1 who start, grow, or diversify their economic activity after receiving the integrated support package (percentage) - Share of female rural beneficiaries in Component 1 who start, grow, or diversify their economic activity after receiving Outcome Indicators the integrated support package (percentage) PDI 3: Share of urban or semi-urban beneficiaries in Component 2 who are engaged in an income-generating activity for which they received support (percentage) - Share of urban or semi-urban beneficiaries in Component 2 who are engaged in an income-generating activity for which they received support (percentage) PDI 4: Share of beneficiaries satisfied with the project (percentage) IR 1: Number of youth groups formed (Component 1) IR 2: Number of beneficiaries completing life skills training (Component 1 and 2) IR 3: Number of beneficiaries completing micro-entrepreneurship training (Component 1 and 2) IR 4: Number of beneficiaries who received start-up capital support (Component 1 and 2) Intermediate Results Indicators IR 5: Number of village coaches identified and trained (Component 1 and 2) IR 6: Number of beneficiaries who completed technical training (Component 2) IR 7: Number of youths (not beneficiaries of Component 1 and 2) who use communal employment services (Component 3) IR 8: Number of communal employment agents financed by ANPE (Component 3) IR 9: The impact evaluation has been completed (Component 3) PDI 1: 48,115 beneficiaries of labor market programs - 28,504 female beneficiaries PDI 2: 99.91% rural beneficiaries in Component 1 who start, grow, or diversify their economic activity after receiving the integrated support package - 95.48% female rural beneficiaries in Component 1 who start, grow, or diversify their economic activity after receiving Key Outputs by Component the integrated support package (linked to the achievement of the PDI 3: 84% urban or semi-urban beneficiaries in Component 2 who are engaged in an income-generating activity for which they Objective/Outcome) received support PDI 4: 96% beneficiaries satisfied with the project IR 1: 1,626 youth groups formed IR 2: 48,013 beneficiaries completed life skills training Page | 38 Official Use Only The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) IR 3: 48,013 beneficiaries completed micro-entrepreneurship training IR 4: 46,716 beneficiaries received start-up capital IR 5: 698 village coaches identified and trained IR 6: 4,681 beneficiary completed technical training IR 7: 6,626 youth non-beneficiaries use communal employment service IR 8: 10 communal employment agents financed by ANPE IR 9: 4 (impact evaluation has been completed) Page | 39 Official Use Only The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS Name Role Preparation Thomas Bossuroy, Patrick Premand Task Team Leader(s) Sylvain Auguste Rambeloson, Luc Lapointe Procurement Specialist(s) Josue Akre Financial Management Specialist Arcade Bigirindavyi Team Member Salimata Bessin Dera Team Member Mahamane Maliki Amadou Team Member Bougadare Kone Environmental Specialist Mahaman Sani Team Member Lydie Anne Billey Team Member Amadou Ba Team Member Julie Rieger Team Member Jan von der Goltz Team Member Adama Ouedraogo Team Member Emeran Serge M. Menang Evouna Team Member Cheikh A. T. Sagna Social Specialist Carlo Del Ninno Team Member Supervision/ICR Snjezana Plevko Task Team Leader(s) Page | 40 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) Maman Hassane Gabari, Mahamadou Bambo Sissoko Procurement Specialist(s) Helsy Priscilla Damiano Financial Management Specialist Ahohouindo Mongnihoude Jean L Gbaguidi Financial Management Specialist Mahamane Mourtala Sani Team Member Salifou Abdou Dan Baba Team Member Johanna Damboeck Social Specialist Felix Lung Team Member Mahamane Maliki Amadou Procurement Team Ibrah Hachimou Environmental Specialist Lydie Anne Billey Team Member Paivi Koskinen-Lewis Social Specialist Taoufiq Bennouna Environmental Specialist Kristyna Bishop Social Specialist Zeinabou Bizo Hassane Team Member Rahmoune Essalhi Team Member B. STAFF TIME AND COST Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY17 4.800 49,601.37 FY18 35.755 288,223.24 FY19 10.270 63,993.99 Total 50.83 401,818.60 Supervision/ICR FY19 3.090 23,928.97 Page | 41 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) FY20 13.528 103,194.89 FY21 4.988 36,960.95 FY22 11.375 94,262.67 FY23 .738 41,318.31 FY24 2.100 28,984.19 Total 35.82 328,649.98 Page | 42 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Amount at Approval Actual at Project Percentage of Approval Components (US$M) Closing (US$M) (%) C1. Youth productive 14.50 15.70 108 inclusion in rural areas C2.Youth insertion in selected activities in semi- 8.00 5.20 65 urban areas C3. Institutional Support and 7.50 7.40 99 Project Management 3.1. Support to local 1.50 1.35 90 employment services 3.2. Institutional support to employment sector 1.50 0.65 43 coordination 3.3. roject management 4.50 5.40 120 Total 30.00 28.30 94 Page | 43 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS No ex-ante efficiency analysis was conducted. Page | 44 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS The Government of Niger has prepared a detailed PEJIP implementation report. The key findings of the government’s report are consistent with the assessment presented in this Implementation Completion and Results Report. Page | 45 The World Bank Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157) ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) Bibliography Andrews, Colin, Aude de Montesquiou, Inés Arévalo Sánchez, Puja Vasudeva Dutta, Boban Varghese Paul, Sadna Samaranayake, Janet Heisey, Timothy Clay, and Sarang Chaudhary. 2021. The State of Economic Inclusion Report 2021: The Potential to Scale. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1598-0. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO. Archibald, E., Bassuroy T., Premand P. 2021, Productive Inclusion Measures and Adaptive Social Protection in the Sahel - A case study; Partnership for Economic Inclusion (PEI); Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program. Boureima I., Yayé I. 2020, Études Approfondies sur l’identification des métiers porteurs innovants. Ministère des enseignement professionnels et techniques (MEPT) ; Fonds d’appui à la formation professionnelle et l’apprentissage (FAFPA) ENISED 2016. Étude Nationale d’Évaluation d’Indicateurs Socio-Économiques et Démographiques, Niger Gouvernement du Niger 2022, Rapport interne d’évaluation à mi-parcours du PEJIP INS 2016, Annuaire Statistiques 2012-2016, édition 2017 OPHI 2017, OPHI Country Briefing 2017: Niger, Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) World Bank 2019, Review of the Public Expenditures in Social Protection in Niger (2008-2017) World Bank 2022, Process Evaluation - Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (PEJIP), Niger Page | 46