Malawi ASA for Education Learning and Skills for Out-of-School Children and Adolescents in Malawi May 23, 2023 © The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not accept any liability if this work is used for an alternative purpose from which it is intended, nor to any third party in respect of this work. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages the dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Adama Ouedraogo and Veronica Grigera. 2024. Learning and Skills for Out-of-School Children and Adolescents in Malawi Report 2024. © World Bank.” All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. ii Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ........................................................................................................................................... IV LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................. V EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................................... VI 1. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND OF EDUCATION IN MALAWI ................................................................. 1 1.1. COUNTRY CONTEXT ...........................................................................................................................................1 1.2. METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH TO MEASURING OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS ...................................3 1.3. THE FIVE DIMENSIONS OF EXCLUSION MODEL ........................................................................................................4 1.4. OVERVIEW OF MALAWI’S EDUCATION SECTOR........................................................................................................4 2. SCOPE AND MAGNITUDE OF OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS IN MALAWI ........................... 9 2.1. COMPOSITION OF OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS .............................................................................9 2.2. EDUCATION ATTAINMENT LEVELS .......................................................................................................................13 2.3. GLOBAL COMPARISON .....................................................................................................................................15 2.4. CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION, OR TRAINING ........................................................16 2.5. KEY FINDINGS ON THE PROFILE OF OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS .....................................................17 3. FACTORS AFFECTING ACCESS TO AND COMPLETION OF EDUCATION AND SKILLS DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES................................................................................................................................................... 19 3.1. SUPPLY-SIDE DETERMINANTS ............................................................................................................................20 3.2. DEMAND-SIDE DETERMINANTS..........................................................................................................................27 3.3. KEY FINDINGS ON ENROLLMENT AND DROPOUT REASONS.......................................................................................34 4. POLICIES AND PROGRAMS FOR SECOND CHANCE PROGRAMS .................................................................... 36 4.1. FRAMEWORK FOR SUPPORTING OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS.........................................................36 4.2. NATIONAL POLICIES ON DROPOUT AND RETENTION ...............................................................................................37 4.3. ONGOING PROJECTS FOR ACCESS, QUALITY, AND RETENTION ..................................................................................40 4.4. SECOND-CHANCE PROGRAMS IN MALAWI ...........................................................................................................43 4.5. LESSONS AND INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE ..........................................................................................................48 4.6. KEY FINDINGS ON POLICIES AND PROGRAMS SUPPORTING OOSCA FROM MALAWI AND INTERNATIONALLY .....................53 5. RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................................................................. 54 iii Acknowledgments This report was prepared by a core team from the Education Global Practice at the World Bank, under the overall guidance of Aneesa Arur and Safaa El-Kogali. Adama Ouedraogo and Veronica Grigera led the production of this report, with valuable contributions from Alice Chingoma, Polycarp Otieno, Michael N. Mambo, and Vanwyk K. M. Chikasanda. Gloria Chinguo, Celia Faias, and Santa Maria Aguti provided valuable technical and administrative support. The team extends its gratitude to Dharini Natarajan for the quality assurance which greatly improved the policy note, and Collins Owen F. Zamawe and Blessings N. Botha for providing analytical support on health and agriculture, respectively. The report benefitted from enriching peer review comments from Yoko Nagashima, Hamoud A. W. Kamil, and Boubakar Lompo. The team acknowledges the support from the Malawi Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Education, Ministry of Gender, Community Development and Social Welfare, Ministry of Labor, and the cooperation of members from other ministries, Non-Governmental Organizations, and development partners, during focus group discussions and the stakeholder validation workshop. Special thanks go to Dr. Macdonald Mafuta Mwale, Secretary to Treasury, Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs; Chikondano Kadzamira Mussa, Secretary for Education, Ministry of Education; Dalitso Chabwera, Chief Statistician, Ministry of Education; Maurice Chafulumira Principal Economist and Human Capital Focal Point, Ministry of Finance; Esnart Chapomba, Chief Education Officer, Ministry of Education; Richard Chirwa, Deputy Director, Ministry of Labor; Henry Phiri, Deputy Director, Ministry of Health – Reproductive, Juliette Rubenstein, Education Program Manager and Co-Chair Education Donor Partners, European Union Delegation; Diana Ching’oma, Program Manager, European Union Delegation to Malawi; Participants from NGOs – Benedict Kondowe, Executive Director Civil Society Education Coalition; Julian P. Mabangwe Representative (Activist) Federation of Disability Organizations in Malawi; Wesley Chabwera, Executive Director, Forum for African Women Educationalist in Malawi. iv List of Abbreviations and Acronyms 5DE Five Dimensions of Exclusion AfDB African Development Bank CBE Complimentary Basic Education CSDCs Community Skills Development Centers CSOs Civil Society Organizations CTCs Community Technical Colleges EAGER Every Adolescent Girl Empowered and Resilient ECE Early Childhood Education EMIS Education Management Information System EU European Union FCDO Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office GBV Gender-Based Violence GDP Gross Domestic Product GER Gross Enrollment Ratio IHS Integrated Household Survey ICT Information and Communication Technology ILO International Labour Organization MoE Ministry of Education MoL Ministry of Labor MWK Malawi Kwacha NEET Not in Employment Education or Training NESIP National Education Sector Investment Plan NGOs Non-Governmental Organizations OOSCA Out-of-School Children and Adolescents OSS Open Secondary School SRGBV School Related Gender Based Violence TEVET Technical, Entrepreneurial, and Vocational Education and Training TEVETA Technical, Entrepreneurial, and Vocational Education and Training Authority UIS UNESCO Institute for Statistics UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund USAID United States Agency for International Development WASH Water Sanitation and Hygiene v Executive Summary The Government of Malawi is a strong advocate for education development, having made relevant constitutional provisions to support education and training, developed relevant laws and policies to support education, and ratified international treaties, commitments, and declarations. The government aims these initiatives at expanding educational opportunities to ensure children eligible for school enroll and stay in school until they complete their education as expected. However, this policy note reveals that, despite these efforts and commitments to universal education, the issue of out-of-school children and adolescents (OOSCA) has been and remains a significant challenge to Malawi’s human capital development. This policy note contributes to the ongoing policy dialogue expected to support learning and skills development opportunities in Malawi. It covers (i) the profile of OOSCA ages 10–19, in terms of their numbers, geographic distribution, gender, socioeconomic background, and levels of education attainment; (ii) the factors affecting access to and retention in education and training, with a focus on gender; (iii) the current programs supporting OOSCA in the country, as well as relevant international practices; and (iv) a set of short-, medium- and long-term recommendations aligned to the Malawi Vision for 2063 and other strategic vision documents, aimed at reducing the number of OOSCA and supporting human capital development. According to the Malawi Fifth Integrated Household Survey (IHS) 2019-2020, one in five children and adolescents ages 10–19, and four in ten adolescents ages 15–19, are out of school. In 2019, the survey estimated that out of the 4.9 million children and adolescents ages 10–19 in the country, over 950,000 were out of school. Additionally, nine out of ten were estimated to have dropped out, with 81 percent in the 15–19 age group. This trend is corroborated by the primary and secondary gross enrollment ratios (GER), which demonstrate the access-related challenges as one goes up the academic ladder. The primary education GER was 114 percent in 2022, while the secondary education ratio was significantly lower at 24 percent. This low level of secondary enrollment was mainly due to the limited capacity for enrollment in the secondary education sector. A few factors are identified as the key reasons for children and adolescents dropping out of school. These factors include family responsibilities, particularly at the primary level; financial constraints that families face in meeting direct or indirect costs of education due to poverty; and the considerable distance to schools as a result of the limited availability of secondary schools. Additionally, there is a lack of interest in education among some children and adolescents, associated with internal and external inefficiencies of the education system. The occurrence of pregnancies and early marriages, particularly for girls ages 15–19, further undermines the commitment to education and training of eligible children and adolescents. In response to the OOSCA challenge, the government has developed and is reviewing policies to promote and improve access to, and retention in schools, particularly at the secondary level. Some of these policies include (i) the Education Act 2013, which supports the provision of non-discriminatory education and mandates free, compulsory primary education for all children under the age of eighteen; (ii) the promotion policy for Malawi schools, aimed at reducing repetition and dropout rates by providing vi a clear framework for grade level promotion; and (iii) the readmission policy for primary and secondary schools, which facilitates the readmission of learners, particularly girls who have dropped out of school due to pregnancy. To operationalize these policies, the government and development partners have been supporting various second-chance pathways, including: a) Complementary Basic Education (CBE) implemented in disadvantaged communities with high rates of OOSCA. This pathway is aimed at providing learning opportunities for learners who have never enrolled in the formal education system as well as those who have dropped out. b) Out-of-School Youth functional literacy program, which focuses on literacy and learner-centered curriculum for adolescents and youth ages 15–21, particularly from rural areas. c) Open Secondary School (OSS) offered across the country to all who have passed the Primary School Leaving Certificate of Education, regardless of age. Using the existing school infrastructure, the program offers a mix of hybrid, face-to-face, and online learning modalities. d) Ad-hoc informal short-term skills development programs that support training in key economic sectors. These programs are designed to respond to local labor market needs and are offered through Technical, Entrepreneurial, and Vocational Education and Training (TEVET) Service Centers, Community Technical Colleges, Community Skills Development Centers, and private technical colleges. Despite these policy and programmatic interventions, the OOSCA phenomenon remains challenging for Malawi’s education and training ecosystem. This is evident from the growth in the number of OOSCA of ages 10–19, from 715,000 in 2011 to 950,000 in 2019. In 2022, more than 300,000 children and adolescents within the same age range were estimated to be at risk of dropping out. If all factors remain constant, this number could reach 373,000 by 2030. Two-thirds of the children and adolescents at risk of dropping out were in the 15-19 age group, and slightly more than half were female. To consolidate the gains from existing policy and programmatic interventions, this policy note provides a set of recommendations for short-, medium-, and long-term implementation, as outlined in Table 1. In implementing these recommendations, the note recommends possible technological solutions, including low-tech solutions such as radio, television, messaging, and tech-enabled personalized learning systems. These solutions are particularly valuable in reaching OOSCA, with the potential to significantly improve learning outcomes for rural, hard-to-reach, and out-of-school learners. vii Table 1. Key Recommendations for Tackling the Challenge of OOSCA in Malawi Short Medium Long Key Recommendations Term Term Term Policies to promote learning and completion of secondary education a. Expand access to secondary education X b. Assess and implement the promotion and readmission policy X c. Develop an early warning system and support targeted X remediation d. Provide geographically targeted and gender-specific X interventions to reduce dropout e. Reduce hidden costs of education e.1. Review and devise ways to reduce the costs of education, X including uniforms and textbooks e.2. Expand support of bursaries and cash transfers X f. Review the vocational curricula at primary and secondary X education levels to promote technological literacy g. Early Childhood development programs X Alternative education pathways for reintegrating 10–14-year-old out-of-school children and secondary education-level adolescents into formal education a. Review and redesign the Complementary Basic Education X programs b. Review, standardize, and expand Open Secondary School X Labor-market-driven skills training programs for 15–19-year-old out-of-school adolescents a. Invest in skills development programs through existing TEVET X programs (Informal) b. Incorporate a component of literacy and numeracy X foundation skills in all interventions for OOSCA c. Implement geographically targeted skills development X activities with gender-specific interventions d. Explore the use of master craft persons in increasing access X to TEVET, focusing particularly on OOSCA viii ix 1. Introduction and Background of Education in Malawi 1.1. Country Context Malawi is a small, landlocked country with one of the youngest and fastest-growing populations in the world. In 2021, the population was estimated at 19.6 million and is projected to double by 2038.1 A significant majority, around 84.4 percent, lives in rural areas.2 Despite significant economic and structural reforms to sustain economic growth, Malawi remains one of the poorest countries in the world. The poverty rate was 50.7 percent in 2019/20, virtually unchanged from a decade ago, with over 9 million people living in poverty.3 Although the total fertility rate declined from 6.5 percent in 1995 to 4.25 percent in 2020, the population continues to grow at an annual rate of about 3 percent, one of the highest rates in Africa. Three-quarters of the population is under 35 years old, with more than half below the age of twenty.4 Rapid population growth and climate change are defining features of Malawi’s development challenge, putting additional strain on the natural resource base and the delivery of quality services. The economy is heavily dependent on agriculture, which employs over 80 percent of the population, and is vulnerable to external shocks, particularly climatic shocks. Additionally, an estimated 400,000 Malawians enter the job market each year, but the economy is not growing fast enough to provide them with decent jobs. Most of the non-agricultural workforce is engaged in unproductive micro, small, and medium enterprises.5 About one-fifth of children and adolescents in Malawi are out of school. This demographic, referred to as OOSCA, is 10–19-year-olds who are not enrolled in primary, secondary, or post-secondary education. As a group of young people who have not had access to, or have been excluded from full schooling or training, OOSCA not only represents a shortfall in the country’s current human capital but also a potential gap in the future workforce, which, if skilled, could contribute to economic growth and poverty reduction. Given this socioeconomic context and the development strategy set out in Malawi Vision 2063,6 the country cannot afford to leave a significant segment of its young population uneducated or unskilled. Improving learning outcomes and skills for all, including OOSCA, is crucial for building human capital in Malawi, which in turn can support economic growth and alleviate poverty. Malawi recognizes its young population as its “greatest source of wealth”7 and has identified the need to develop and nurture their skills and capabilities to meet the country’s development agenda and aspirations. Children and adolescents ages 10–19 make up approximately 23 percent of the country’s total population. By 2030, this group is projected to grow to 5.3 million and constitute a large part of the country’s workforce. In the medium term, Malawi is expected to capitalize on its young population to sustain economic growth. In the long term, the country’s ability to benefit from the demographic dividend of its young population will depend on its success in improving the Human Capital Index, particularly through improving the performance of its education and training system. This entails improving access, quality, and efficiency of the system so that more children and adolescents, especially girls, can complete secondary education and develop relevant skills. Global evidence points to the need to support adolescents in their transition to adulthood, particularly in terms of improved learning and skills. Adolescents often constitute a large share of a country’s population, and their well-being contributes significantly to national development and welfare.8 In 1 Malawi, analysis of data from the national household survey suggests that, on average, an additional year of schooling increases lifetime earnings by 10 percent, which aligns with international evidence on returns to education.9 The rate of return to education in Malawi is 5.1 percent for primary education, 9.4 percent for junior secondary education, 15.4 percent for senior secondary education, and 66 percent for university education. In addition, female workers tend to have higher rates of return on education than male workers, particularly at higher levels of education.10 This higher rate of return at higher levels of education suggests the need to expand access and improve survival rates to the highest level of schooling.11 There is evidence of inefficiency in the education system in terms of its ability to consistently deliver high-quality services for all, while also ensuring that students learn as they progress and complete school. High dropout rates contribute to a constantly growing OOSCA population, that, if not trained, translates into lost opportunities, while also contributing to a gap in the future workforce. The lack of skills resulting from the dropping out limits their employment prospects and the human capital of future generations. This situation presents a double burden: the need to improve the education system to ensure children stay in school, learn, and complete secondary education, and the need to address the requirements of a large cohort of the population whose lack of skills can negatively affect the county’s future growth potential. Although the government has been committed to providing universal education since 1994 and has advocated for education development in Africa and globally, meeting this goal presents many challenges. Despite ratifying various international treaties, commitments, and declarations calling for increased educational opportunities for eligible children, Malawi still struggles to make universal education a reality. In 2011, the number of OOSCA exceeded 715,000, and this number increased to 950,000 almost a decade later.12 Substantively reducing this number requires more knowledge and a better understanding of who these children and adolescents are. This includes knowing their numbers, both in terms of their current stock and flow, as well as their geographic, socioeconomic, age, gender, and ability profiles. Additionally, it is important to identify the factors that cause them not to attend or drop out of school and training programs. The objective of this study is to assess the state of OOSCA in Malawi, identify key factors influencing the OOSCA phenomenon, and provide short-, medium- and long-term policy options to improve second- chance learning and skills opportunities for OOSCA. The work also seeks to provide insights into how the education and training system can reduce the number of OOSCA. This policy note demonstrates that investment in OOSCA is a necessary contribution to improving Malawi’s human capital. The detailed analysis contributes to the ongoing policy dialogue aimed at supporting learning and skills development opportunities for these individuals. The analysis focuses on four areas. The first area profiles OOSCA ages 10–19, highlighting the scope and magnitude of the challenge. The second area investigates the factors affecting access to, and retention in, education and training, with a focus on gender. The third area outlines current policies and programs supporting OOSCA in Malawi and provides examples of promising practices internationally. The fourth area provides a sequence of recommendations with short-, medium- and long-term horizons, aligned with the Malawi Vision for 2063 and other strategic vision documents using analyses and lessons from national, regional, and international policies and programs. The recommendations focus on three key areas: (a) policy measures to ensure children learn and complete secondary education; (b) alternative pathways for 2 reintegration into the formal education system; and (c) skills training programs linked to labor market demand. 1.2. Methodology and Approach to Measuring Out-of-School Children and Adolescents The review of OOSCA adopted a mixed-approach methodology, using both quantitative and qualitative methods. The quantitative aspect is based on existing data sources, primarily the IHS series and the Education Management Information System (EMIS).13 Additional data sources included learning assessment reports, the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework, and the current education and TEVET policies on access and equity, retention, quality, and relevance of the system. This was complemented by the Malawi Education Sector Investment Plan (2020–2030). The qualitative aspect involved a literature review, as well as the gathering of insights from key stakeholders such as government officials, development partners, civil society organizations (CSOs), students, parents, and OOSCA. This information was collected through desk reviews, virtual and face-to-face interviews, semi-structured interviews, and focus group discussions conducted during field visits to five districts: Dedza, Mchinji, Mulanje, Zomba, and Chikwawa. Overall, the policy note preparation involved the following activities and methodology: a) Engagement with the government’s Human Capital Project focal point and teams from the Ministry of Education (MoE), Ministry of Gender, Ministry of Labor (MoL), and the Ministry of Youth and Sports. This was to ensure alignment with the government’s priorities, address knowledge gaps, and feed into the education sector and job creation plans. b) Desk review of existing literature, analytical work, and data within Malawi, in collaboration with relevant government teams to map out the landscape, take stock of progress, and identify key constraints. c) Review of best practices at the global and regional levels, and current knowledge to address key identified. d) Review of existing programs in Malawi supported by the government, development partners, and CSOs targeting OOSCA, such as second-chance education, catch-up programs, foundational skills development and training, and skills development. e) Focus group discussions with key government officials, development partners, NGOs, and civil society groups to validate the profile and landscape of OOSCA in Malawi and gain their perspectives on key constraints. These discussions were inclusive and participatory and involved out-of-school groups, CSOs, and advocacy groups promoting girls’ education and women’s empowerment. This approach was taken to ensure their perspectives were reflected in the recommendations and actionable solutions. f) Consultations and follow-up discussions with relevant stakeholders engaged in current programs to understand the nature of these programs, including key beneficiaries, the type of support provided, implementation arrangements, cost details, effectiveness, and challenges. g) Stakeholder validation workshop to discuss priorities and proposed policy options for improving second-chance learning and skills development for OOSCA. 3 1.3. The Five Dimensions of Exclusion Model The framework for analysis of OOSCA adapts the Five Dimensions of Exclusion (5DE) developed by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Institute for Statistics (UIS) and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF).14 The 5DE model is used to guide the comparative analysis of OOSCA and defines conditions under which school-age children and adolescents are considered out of school. It measures exclusion and potential exclusion from school participation among children eligible for pre-primary, primary, and lower secondary levels of education. The model has five analytical dimensions that focus on children who are out of school, as well as those who are in school but are at risk of dropping out. Figure 1.3.1. illustrates the four dimensions adapted from the original 5DE. The first two dimensions identify out-of-school children and adolescents ages 10–14 and 15–19 as those who never attended school, dropped out and will enter school late. The last two dimensions consider children and adolescents in the same age groups who are at risk of dropping out. In adapting the 5DE model for this analysis, the focus was narrowed to the specific age groups of 10–14 and 15–19 selected for this study, rather than the conventional school age range typically covered by primary or lower secondary education in the original model. Figure 1.3.1: Adapted Dimensions of Exclusion Out of school children Out of school adolescents Never Dropped Never Dropped Will enter Will enter attended out of attended out of school late school late Out of school school school school school Children and adolescents (10-14) Children and adolescents (15-19) At risk of being out of At risk of being out of school children school adolescents At risk of dropping out At risk of dropping out In school of school of school Children and adolescents (10-14) Children and adolescents (15-19) Source: Adapted from UIS and UNICEF 201515 1.4. Overview of Malawi’s Education Sector The formal education system in Malawi runs from early childhood to the tertiary education level16 as depicted in Figure 1.4.1. At the end of primary education, students take the Primary School Leaving Certificate of Education exam, which determines eligibility for secondary education entry. In their second year of secondary education, students qualify to take the Junior Certificate of Education, followed by the Malawi School Certificate of Education exams at the end of secondary education. Tertiary education is provided by an array of educational institutions including primary and secondary teacher training 4 institutes and colleges, TEVET institutions, and universities. Universities and teacher training institutes accept students holding a Malawi School Certificate of Education with a specified number of credits, whereas TEVET institutions accept students with either a Junior Certificate of Education or Malawi School Certificate of Education, depending on the programs of study. Additionally, alternative education and skills programs are provided through CBE, out-of-school youth education, and adult literacy interventions. The GER in Malawi is 114 percent for primary school, but it significantly drops at post-primary levels, with 24 percent for secondary and 3 percent for tertiary levels, indicating access challenges beyond primary school. The pre-primary GER is also low at 31 percent.17 Despite some progress in closing the gender gap over the years, disparities continue to exist, particularly at higher education levels. In 2022, females represented 53 percent of the 524,893 children enrolled in pre-primary, 51 percent of the 4,943,633 children enrolled in primary, and 49 percent of the 441,102 children enrolled in secondary education. Progression from primary to secondary education was low, with only 43 percent of boys and 42 percent of girls making the progression, as illustrated in Figure 1.4.1.18 Figure 1.4.1: Transition Rate from Primary to Secondary Education Male Female 42.3% 39.5% 39.8% 37.8% 36.4% 42.7% 37.4% 38.1% 37.3% 35.8% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: MoE, Education Statistics Report, 2022 Malawi has extremely low learning levels, and the quality of education remains a challenge, leading to variations in the quality of learning within and across schools and districts. Although children are expected to attend school for an average of 9.6 years, when adjusted for learning, they can expect to receive an average of 5.5 learning-adjusted years of education. This represents a loss of about four years of learning. Overall, Grade 4 students struggle to complete tasks meant for Grade 1 and Grade 2. By Grade 6, only 44 percent of students have reached the minimum reading proficiency level.19 These challenges are reflected in the skills of the labor force, where about 24 percent of the working population cannot read or write, and literacy rates are lower among females in all age groups. Gender equity challenges in terms of access to schooling and learning continue to persist and begin in early grades. As early as Grade 4, girls typically have the equivalent of one term worth of learning less than boys across various subjects, with the most significant gap observed in mathematics.20 This pattern persists into Grade 6, leading to higher dropout rates among girls in upper primary. Although there has been an improvement in the enrollment of girls at the secondary level in recent years (18 percent for girls versus 21 percent for boys), their completion rate is lower compared to boys for various reasons, including the high fertility rate. The adolescent fertility rate of 140 births per 1,000 women ages 15–19, is higher 5 than the Africa Human Capital target of 83 set for achievement by 2023. This rate affects not only the educational attainment of girls but also the additional students expected to enter the education system each year. Over the last decade, Malawi’s education spending has been above that of other low-income and Sub- Saharan African countries. Between 2011 and 2020, Malawi invested an average of 4.2 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) in education, compared to an average of 3.1 percent in low-income countries, and 3.6 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa. During this period, education accounted for an average of 16.1 percent of Malawi’s public expenditure, which is higher than the 14.6 percent average for low- income countries and the 15.9 percent average for Sub-Saharan Africa. Malawi’s real education budget fell 28 percent, from MWK 288 billion in 2020 to MWK 205 billion in 2022. The budget saw a rebound in 2022/23, increasing to MWK 262 billion.21 Despite the higher-than-average spending on education compared to other low-income and Sub- Saharan African countries, these expenditure levels equate to low per-student spending. With Malawi’s GDP per capita22 estimated at US$635, one of the lowest in the world, the education system has expanded rapidly in recent decades. Five million students, representing more than one-quarter of the national population, are enrolled in primary education. During the 2017-2022 schooling period, an average of about 680,000 new students enrolled in Grade 1 each year, reaching as high as 800,000 in 2017. As a result, primary education expenditure was approximately US$84 per student, lower than the majority of low-income regional countries, as shown in Error! Reference source not found.23 Despite this expenditure a nd the public commitment to free basic education since 1994, households invest significant amounts of their income (around 14 percent),24 to educate their children at the primary level. Figure 1.2.2: Per-Student Primary and Secondary Expenditure in Selected Low-Income Countries 700 Per-student spending (US$ 2017 600 500 400 300 PPP) 200 100 0 Mali Burkina Sierra Liberia Ethiopia Niger Chad Malawi Rwanda Faso Leone Primary Secondary Source: UNESCO. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), 2017 Note: PPP includes all low-income Sub-Saharan African countries with available data The COVID-19 pandemic and an associated seven-month closure of schools exacerbated low levels of learning. Students lost approximately 1.5 years of learning due to the foregone and forgotten learning during school closures, dropout rates increased, and learning progressed at a slower pace after schools reopened.25 Enrolment declined by 9 percent at the primary level between 2019/20 and 2021. By 2022, 6 enrolments had not recovered, remaining below 2019/20 levels (Figure 1.4.3).26 School closures not only prevented learning from continuing but also put girls at a greater risk of not continuing their education due to early marriage and pregnancy.27 During the COVID-19 crisis, a rise in teen pregnancies was reported compared to a similar period in 2019, with one in three girls citing pregnancy as the reason for not returning to school post-closures.28 Figure 1.4.3: Enrollment Trends 3,000 Enrolment in thousands 2,500 ('000) 2,000 1,500 1,000 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Boys Girls Source: PREPARE, CGD 2022 Part 6 Country Study School closure due to climate change shocks and other health-related concerns also affect learning. Tropical cyclones have caused significant damage, resulting in school closures. Cyclone Idai devastated the country in 2019, and the 2022 cyclone season brought two storms, Tropical Storm Ana and Tropical Cyclone Gombe. Most recently in 2023, Cyclone Freddy devastated the southern region of Malawi, forcing schools to close for almost two weeks due to infrastructure damage. Additionally, the use of schools as temporary camps for internally displaced persons has disrupted education. In addition to the cyclone- related closures, some schools in the districts severely affected by a cholera outbreak were also closed in 2023 for almost two weeks. Such forced school closures bear the risk of keeping children out of school permanently, as observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Across the globe, school closures were detrimental to school attendance, even when schools reopened post-pandemic. In Malawi, a 2020 government-led survey revealed that 15 percent of children ages 6–18 were probably not going to resume school, including one in ten children whose parents were certain not to allow them to return.29 This reluctance to send children back to school may have further complicated the fight against the out-of- school phenomenon, an issue that has been worsening since 2015, with the effort to reduce the number of OOSCA seemingly losing momentum. 7 2. 8 3. Scope and Magnitude of Out-Of-School Children and Adolescents in Malawi This section presents key findings about OOSCA in Malawi ages 10–19. It examines the extent to which gender, geographic location, and socioeconomic status contribute to their likelihood of being out of school or dropping out. The highlights are based on the Third, Fourth, and Fifth Malawi IHS series conducted in 2011, 2017, and 2020. These surveys allow for the estimation of children and adolescents who have never attended school, those who are currently enrolled, and those who have dropped out. The IHS results are complemented by the 2021 Annual Schools Census statistics which estimates the number of children and adolescents currently in school who are at risk of dropping out. The section further presents the geographic distribution of OOSCA. 3.1. Composition of Out-Of-School Children and Adolescents a) Children and Adolescents Currently Out of School According to the Fifth IHS, about one in five children and adolescents ages 10–19 is out of school. The survey estimated that there were 4.9 million children and adolescents in this age range in 2020 (2.7 million ages 10–14 and 2.2 million ages 15–19). More than 90 percent were eligible for primary and secondary education, while the rest were eligible for post-secondary education. More than 950,000 (or 19 percent) of this total population were out of school, with 19 percent in the 10–14 age group and 81 percent in the 15–19 age group. Table 3.1.1: Out-of-School Children and Adolescents in Malawi, 2020 Age Eligible Total out-of- Never Dropped % out of school group population school attended out Boys 10–14 1,352,800 105,500 43,700 61,800 7.8% 15–19 1,088,800 357,700 27,700 330,000 32.9% 10–19 2,441,600 463,200 71,400 391,800 19.0% Girls 10–14 1,379,500 73,800 22,100 51,700 5.3% 15–19 1,069,800 413,100 27,800 385,300 38.6% 10–19 2,449,300 486,900 49,900 437,000 19.9% Total 10–14 2,732,300 179,300 65,800 113,500 6.6% 15–19 2,158,600 770,800 55,500 715,300 35.7% 10–19 4,890,900 950,100 121,300 828,800 19.4% % Girls 50.1% 51.2% 41.1% 52.7% Source: Estimates from Malawi Fifth IHS The results further show that there were significantly more girls out of school (487,000) compared to boys (463,000) across the 10–19 age group. The predicted probability of being out of school was estimated at 19 percent for boys and 20 percent for girls. These differences were more pronounced in the 15–19 age 9 group, where the probability of girls being out of school was greater than 38 percent, compared to 33 percent for boys (Figures 2.1.1 and 2.1.2). Figure 3.1.1: Total OOSCA Ages 10–14 Figure 3.1.2: Total OOSCA Ages 15–19 70 61.8 500 Out of school children and Out of school children and adolescents in thousands adolescents in thousands 60 51.7 385.3 400 50 43.7 330 40 300 ('000) ('000) 30 22.1 200 20 100 10 27.7 27.8 0 0 Never Attended Dropped Out Never Attended Dropped Out Boys Girls Boys Girls Source: Estimates from Malawi Fifth IHS Source: Estimates from Malawi Fifth IHS Although the out-of-school rate has stagnated over the last decade, the absolute number of children and adolescents out of school has increased over the same period. In 2019, the out-of-school rate for children and adolescents ages 10–19 was 19 percent, having marginally dropped from 21 percent almost a decade earlier. The findings reveal that the OOSCA rate has remained mostly stagnant over the years (Table 2.1.2). Despite the stagnation, results from the last three IHS series show that between 2011 and 2019, the number of OOSCA ages 10–19 increased from 715,000 to 950,000. This 33 percent increase was attributable to the increase in population. While the OOSCA rate for the 10–14 age group saw a notable decline of four percentage points between 2011 and 2016, it increased by one percentage point three years later, highlighting the persistent challenge of out-of-school children for Malawi’s education sector. Table 3.1.2: Evolution of OOSCA in Malawi, 2011–2020 Age Group 2011 2017 2020 Eligible 10–14 1,936,100 2,424,300 2,732,400 15–19 1,413,200 1,798,600 2,158,500 10–19 3,349,300 4,222,900 4,890,900 OOSCA 10–14 194,000 150,600 179,300 15–19 521,300 613,800 770,800 10–19 715,300 764,400 950,100 %OOSCA 10–14 10.0% 6.2% 6.6% 15–19 36.9% 34.1% 35.7% 10–19 21.4% 18.1% 19.4% Source: Estimates from Malawi Third, Fourth, and Fifth IHS 2011, 2017, and 2020, respectively. Rural children and adolescents are more susceptible to being out of school, with the probability of being out of school increasing with age. Regardless of age and gender, the probability of being out of school is significantly different for children and adolescents living in rural areas (20 percent) compared to their peers living in urban areas (15 percent). The gender differential is more pronounced when location is 10 factored in. For example, while the probability of being out of school is 14 percent for urban males, this figure climbs to 21 percent for rural females, as illustrated in Figure 2.1.3. The survey further shows that the probability of being out of school increases with age. For instance, the probability of a ten-year-old being out of school is 3 percent, increasing to 56 percent among adolescents at age 19. This difference is influenced by both gender and location, with negligible differences at age 10. However, as age advances, the gap between rural girls and urban boys becomes more noticeable. At 19 years old, rural girls are 28 percent more likely to be out of school compared to urban boys. Figure 3.1.3: Probability of Being out of School, by Figure 3.1.4: Probability of Being out of School, Location, Gender by Location, Gender, Age 0.60 0.60 0.58 0.50 0.50 0.40 0.40 0.45 0.30 0.30 0.19 0.21 0.20 0.14 0.15 0.20 0.10 0.10 0.03 0.00 0.00 Urban Male Urban Rural Male Rural 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Female Female Urban Boys Rural Girls Source: Estimates from Malawi Fifth IHS Source: Estimates from Malawi Fifth IHS b) Children and Adolescents at Risk of Being Out of School More than 300,000 children and adolescents enrolled in primary and secondary schools are at risk of dropping out. Dimensions 3 and 4 of the adapted dimensions of exclusion are based on children and adolescents ages 10–19 who attend school but are at risk of dropping out. According to the 2021 Annual Schools Census, nearly 2.4 million learners ages 10–14 enrolled in school (2.3 million in primary and 72,000 in secondary). At both levels of education, more than half of the children and adolescents were female. Among those ages 15–19, about 645,000 were enrolled in school, with more than half attending secondary schools, and slightly less than half were female (47 percent in primary and 49 percent in secondary). The Fifth IHS estimated that the average dropout rate for 10–14-year-olds, regardless of the level of education attained, is 4 percent, compared to 33 percent for 15–19-year-olds, also regardless of the level of education attained. 11 Table 3.1.3: Children and Adolescents in School at Risk of Dropping out of School, 2021 Male Female Total % Female Learners enrolled in primary 10–14 1,109,477 1,190,012 2,299,489 51.8% 15–19 165,857 148,233 314,090 47.2% Learners enrolled in secondary 10–14 31,900 40,020 71,920 55.6% 15–19 170,293 160,654 330,947 48.5% Dropout rate (%) 10–14 4.6% 3.7% 4.2% — 15–19 30.3% 36.0% 33.1% — Learners at risk of dropping out 10–14 52,140 46,100 98,500 46.8% 15–19 101,880 111,250 213,750 52.0% Total 154,020 157,350 312,250 50.4% Source: 2022 Education Statistical Report30, (MoE, 2022) The number of enrolled children at risk of dropping out of school can be estimated by applying the dropout rates in Table 2.1.3 to the number of enrolled children and adolescents. Accordingly, it is estimated that more than 312,000 learners ages 10–19 are at risk of dropping out of school, with about two-thirds in the 15–19 age group. Among the 10–14 age group, 98,500 learners are at risk, with 95,500 in primary schools and 3,000 in secondary schools. Among the 15–19 age group, 213,700 learners are at risk of dropping out, with 104,000 in primary schools and 109,700 in secondary schools. It is also worth noting that the overall number of female learners at risk of dropping out is comparable with the number of boys at risk, as indicated in Table 2.1.3. c) Geographical Distribution of OOSCA About 90 percent of OOSCA are in the central and southern regions of the country, with Mangochi and Lilongwe districts hosting a significant share. Malawi's education system is administratively organized into three regions (Central, Northern, and Southern regions) divided into 34 districts. These administrative units are important for designing and implementing interventions for OOSCA. About 44 percent of OOSCA are in the Central region, 46 percent are in the Southern region, and a smaller share, 10 percent, is in the Northern region.31 Despite the numerous education and other social service interventions in Lilongwe and Mangochi rural areas, more than 20 percent of OOSCA are in these two districts, almost the same share as in the next five districts combined (see Figure 2.1.6). This pattern is attributed to the severe poverty levels in these two districts. The World Bank’s recent Malawi Poverty Assessment found that Lilongwe and Mangochi have households with high levels of poverty, struggling to meet their basic needs. 12 Figure 3.1.6: Distribution of Out-of-School Children and Adolescents by District, Gender 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Dedza Blantyre Zomba Non-City Mzuzu City Thyolo Balaka Salima Mchinji Nsanje Mwanza Rumphi Zomba City Lilongwe Mulanje Chikwawa Phalombe Neno Dowa Machinga Ntcheu Kasungu Blantyre City Nkhotakota Ntchisi Mzimba Nkhatabay Karonga Chitipa Likoma Mangochi Lilongwe City Chiradzulu Male Female Source: Estimates from Malawi Fifth IHS 3.2. Education Attainment Levels a) General Education Attainment The majority of OOSCA dropouts have not acquired basic foundational skills, which limits their integration and mobility in the labor market and deprives them of the full benefits of education. OOSCA who have never attended school have no formal academic qualifications. For the 87 percent of OOSCA who have dropped out, it is important to understand their level of educational attainment to determine their functional literacy. An analysis of the educational attainment of those who have dropped out shows a large skills gap, based on the highest level of education attained. Nearly all the children and adolescents in the 10–14 age group who dropped out and did not complete primary school have no formal education qualification. For the children and adolescents in the 15–19 age group, 86 percent have no formal education qualification, while 10 percent have completed primary education (Figure 2.2.1). Based on self- reported literacy, only 21 percent of OOSCA in the 10–14 age group can read and write in any language, in contrast to 71 percent in the 15–19 age group (Figure 2.2.2). Comparatively, children still in school have higher literacy rates, with three times higher performance in the 10–14 age group compared to the children and adolescents in the same age group. This general lack of foundational skills and qualifications limits opportunities for further training and development,32 thus reducing their chances of employment, and limiting them to low-quality, temporary, and sometimes hazardous jobs and casual work, ganyu, the localized name for casual work in Malawi. 13 Figure 3.2.1: Education Attainment for School Figure 3.2.2: Share of Children and Adolescents Dropouts, 2020 Who Can Read and Write in any Language, 2020 100.0% 10-19 80.0% 60.0% 15-19 40.0% 10-14 20.0% 0.0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 10-14 15-19 10-19 10-14 15-19 10-19 In school Out of school None Primary Junior secondary Senior secondary A level Illiterate Literate Source: Estimates from Malawi Fifth IHS Source: Estimates from Malawi Fifth IHS b) Digital Skills Among Children and Adolescents Ages 10–19 Although there is little data on digital skills acquisition by children and adolescents, the slow pace in the development of information and communication technology (ICT) enablers in Malawi provides strong insight into the state of digital skills. Social development in the twenty-first century, particularly for children and adolescents, is driven by their ability to adapt to the changing skills needs. Globally, ICT is a useful tool for anthropological advancement. Despite the government’s commitment to integrating ICT into all levels of education and developing a large pool of skilled ICT personnel, Malawi’s supply of digital skills remains low. In the 2020 Portulans Institute’s Network Readiness Index, Malawi ranked 127th out of 134 countries. Notably, Malawi ranked 125 under the index’s ‘people pillar’ which measures the skills and use of digital technologies by individuals, businesses, and governments in the digital economy. According to the Malawi ICT Authority, only 14 percent of Malawians were connected to the internet, which was only one-quarter of the global average of 54 percent.33 Moreover, the Digital Growth Indicators Report34 of 2022 reports that there were about 10.23 million mobile phone connections, representing slightly more than half (51.4 percent) of the population. Internet usage stood at 4.03 million, or 20.2 percent of the population, with a 17 percent year-on-year growth rate. Mobile phones accounted for over 60 percent of internet traffic, desktops and laptops for 35 percent, and tablets for about 2 percent. Employers in the private sector face challenges because of the limited number of youths with the requisite basic digital skills for their business needs, and many report having to retrain them in both digital skills and soft skills. Despite the lack of evidence, it is reasonable to assume that children and adolescents ages 10–19 lack basic digital skills. This can be attributed to the limited access to technology and education, insufficient training and support, and the high cost of technology. The existence of digital skills in the country is further demonstrated in the Fifth IHS, which asked two ICT-related questions that further support these findings. One question sought to find out whether respondents had ‘ever used a computer before.’ The survey revealed that less than 3 percent of children and adolescents had used a computer before, with exposure to computers increasing with age, but peaking at only 7 percent of adolescents. While the IHS measurement departs from the elaborate framework of ICT skills35 in Sustainable Development Goal 4, it is evident that Malawi has significant progress to make to ensure a critical mass of children and adolescents can achieve digital literacy. 14 New digital skills programs led by NGOs, private sector companies, and development partners, seek to address this need, targeting the most underserved and marginalized communities in Malawi . However, the country still has a long way to go in building a digital-savvy workforce capable of effectively using digital technologies and the digital economy to drive economic growth, job creation, and competitiveness both domestically and regionally. The current shortage of digitally skilled labor means that many individuals and businesses are unable to leverage digital public platforms, digital financial services, or launch digital start-ups. Traditional firms tend to use only the most basic digital technologies. For digital businesses, particularly start-ups, access to finance at conception, seed, and growth stages is limited, and commercial banks are not viable sources of early-stage financing. Supporting fintech start-ups through a specialized regulatory ‘sandbox,’ along with financial support, can facilitate the development of local solutions for payments, transfers, and access to e-credit. Additionally, to capitalize on the active community of young entrepreneurs who are innovating Malawi’s nascent digital entrepreneurship ecosystem, the Government must address the underlying constraints in ICT, financial access, and affordability, especially for the youth, women, and rural communities. This situation suggests the need for the government to strengthen competencies for digital skills and entrepreneurship. The government needs to improve the quality of basic education to equip Malawians with the literacy and numeracy skills that are foundational to digital and financial literacy. This requires the provision of qualitative learning material, better-trained and incentivized teachers, a reduction of the student-teacher ratio, and conducive classroom environments to enable learning. To fully exploit the possibilities of digital skills, the government must accelerate the connectivity of schools to power sources and support schools in accessing digital resources. The government should also upgrade TEVET institutions to offer foundational and intermediate digital skills training. This will require significant investment in infrastructure for existing training institutions and the establishment of new centers in the medium to long term. It will also require training and retraining of trainers in ICT competencies. There is a need for stronger links between the government, academia, and the private sector to jointly develop ICT curricula. Cross-sector partnerships will help trainees develop technical and soft skills that are relevant to local and international markets. 3.3. Global Comparison The OOSCA challenge is not unique to Malawi. According to UIS 202336 estimates for selected South African Development Community countries, this issue affects various countries in the region to varying degrees. For instance, Figure 2.3.1 illustrates that in Namibia, one in ten children eligible for primary and secondary education were in school in 2021. In contrast, one in four eligible children and adolescents in Madagascar were out of school in 2019. Among the selected countries, Malawi had the second-highest rate of out-of-school children, trailing only Madagascar. 15 Figure 3.3.1: Out-of-School Rate for Children, Adolescents, and Youth of Basic and Secondary School Ages 25% 18% 18% 19% 16% 11% 13% 13% 9% 5% 1% Source: UIS, circa 2020 Regionally, Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa continue to have the highest proportion of school-age children who are out of school. Regardless of the level of education, the out-of-school rate remains the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. In primary (ages 6–11), the out-of-school rate in Sub-Saharan Africa was nearly 20 percent in 2021, which was more than double the global average of 9 percent (Error! Reference s ource not found.). In lower secondary (ages 12–14), 33 percent of eligible children and adolescents were out of school, which was more than double the regional average and five times the rate observed for Malawi’s children ages 10–14 in 2019. In upper secondary (ages 15–17), nearly half of eligible children and adolescents in Sub-Saharan Africa were not in school, about 34 percent higher than Malawi’s children and adolescents ages 15–19. Table 3.3.1: OOSCA Rate by Region, 2021 Lower secondary Upper secondary Primary school age Region school age school age (6–11 years) (12–14 years) (15–17 years) Sub Saharan Africa 19.9% 33.2% 47.8% Malawi 12.8 7.0% 23.7% North Africa and Western Asia 8.7% 9.9% 23.4% Central and Southern Asia 7.2% 13.0% 38.9% Eastern and Southeastern Asia 3.9% 7.0% 16.0% Oceania 6.6% 4.1% 20.2% Latin America and the Caribbean 3.6% 6.7% 19.7% Europe and North America 2.2% 2.8% 8.6% World 9.0% 13.9% 30.2% Source: UIS, Global Education Monitoring Report, 2021 3.4. Children and Adolescents Not in Employment, Education, or Training The cumulative effects of being out of school and the associated lack of skills acquisition complicate the transition from schooling to work. This perpetuates the high rates of children and adolescents who are not in education, employment, or training (NEET). In Malawi, out of the 4.9 million children and adolescents ages 10–19, over 643,000 (or 13 percent) are classified as NEET, with 90 percent, residing in rural areas. Nearly 60 percent of this total are female. While 12 percent of boys are NEET, the rate for girls 16 is slightly higher at 15 percent. The gender differences are evident in both the younger children and adolescents but are more pronounced in the older age group. In the 15–19 age group, urban females are 33 percent more likely to be NEET than their male counterparts, while rural girls are 53 percent more likely to be NEET than rural boys. These numbers are even higher in the 20–24 age bracket, where 46 percent are NEET, including 33 percent of males and 56 percent of females. These figures are higher than those in other eastern and southern African countries.37 This trend means that the affected young individuals are not reaching their full potential, as they are not engaged in education, employment, or training. Table 3.4.1: Children and Adolescents NEET in Malawi NEET NEET Rate Male Female Total Male Female Total Urban 24,200 33,900 58,100 7.6% 9.7% 8.7% 10–14 3,600 2,600 6,200 2.1% 1.4% 1.8% 15–19 20,600 31,300 51,900 14.2% 18.9% 16.7% Rural 264,000 321,600 585,600 12.4% 15.3% 13.9% 10–14 85,500 59,100 144,600 7.2% 4.9% 6.1% 15–19 178,500 262,500 441,000 18.9% 29.0% 23.9% Total 288,200 355,500 643,700 11.8% 14.5% 13.2% Source: Estimates from Malawi Fifth IHS 3.5. Key Findings on the Profile of Out-Of-School Children and Adolescents The OOSCA challenge remains significant in Malawi, with 950,000 children and adolescents ages 10–19 estimated to be out of school in 2020, up from 715,000 in 2011. If the current OOSCA rate persists, projections indicate that figures could grow to 1.04 million by 2025 and to 1.1 million by 2030. Nine in ten OOSCA are dropouts, with the dropout rates more than five times higher in the 15–19 age group than in the 10–14 age group. This indicates that dropping out is the main challenge for OOSCA in Malawi. There were significantly more girls (487,000) out of school than boys (463,000), and about 90 percent of the OOSCA are in the central and southern regions of the country, with a significant number concentrated in Mangochi and Lilongwe districts. In addition to the OOSCA, over 300,000 children and adolescents ages 10–19 presently enrolled in school are at risk of dropping out. If this trend continues, this number could grow to over 373,000 by 2030. Two-thirds of those at risk are in the 15-19 age group, with slightly over half being female. Children and adolescents who are out of school have lower skills than those in school, with OOSCA being twice as likely to be illiterate. Moreover, nearly 90 percent of the dropouts have no formal education qualifications, which often leaves them only being able to secure low-quality employment. The lack of skills among the OOSCA is compounded by the country’s weak ICT environment, which hinders their ability to adapt to the ever-evolving technologies, especially with global benchmarks. 17 18 4. Factors Affecting Access to and Completion of Education and Skills Development Opportunities The factors affecting school attendance and possible dropping out can be broadly categorized into supply- side and demand-side determinants, as illustrated in Figure 3.1. Supply-side determinants include tuition fees, adequacy and accessibility of educational infrastructure (such as latrines and changing rooms), as well as quality-related aspects that create a conducive learning environment, which include teacher competence, and the availability of teaching and learning materials. Demand-side determinants can be categorized into household and child-specific characteristics. Household factors include the education level of parents, the number of children and working adults in the family, poverty levels, gender and education level of the household head, urban or rural household location, and family mobility38. Child- specific factors include the child’s age, gender, illness and disability, attendance of preschool, academic performance, and interest in schooling. Figure 4.1: Supply-Side and Demand-Side Determinants of OOSCA Source: Author’s compilation The reasons for 10–19-year-olds never attending school and dropping out39 are generally similar, with minor differences. The Annual School Census identifies age, financial reasons, proximity to school, illness, and lack of interest as the key reasons for being out of school or dropping out. While the analysis in Section 2 is mainly based on IHS data, this chapter uses data from the Annual School Census. 19 Figure 4.2: Reasons for Never Attending School, Disaggregated by Gender Reasons for not attending school, male Reasons for not attending school, female 10-19 10% 22% 45% 22% 10-19 9% 26% 47% 14% 15-19 1% 22% 51% 26% 15-19 5% 38% 42% 9% 10-14 15% 23% 41% 19% 10-14 14% 12% 53% 19% Too young Financial Distant schools Too young Financial Distant schools Lack of interest Illness Lack of interest Illness Source: Malawi Fifth IHS 4.1. Supply-Side Determinants This section provides an analysis of supply-side determinants of the OOSCA population. It focuses on infrastructure availability and key learning factors, including the number and quality of teachers, school inputs, and school management practices that affect school enrollment and dropout rates. These determinants are outlined in Figures 3.2, 3.1.1, and 3.1.2. Figure 4.1.1: Reasons for Dropping out of Primary School, 2022 Source: Annual Schools Census (MoE, 2022) 20 Figure 4.1.2: Reasons for Dropping out of Secondary School, 2022 Source: Annual Schools Census (MoE, 2022) a) Cost of Education Although primary and secondary education is meant to be free in Malawi, the cost of education is one of the key barriers to education, particularly at the secondary education level. The constitution of Malawi provides for free and compulsory primary education in public schools for all children under the age of eighteen.40 However, the government faces challenges in fully implementing the free and compulsory elements of the constitutional provision. To address these challenges and improve access to education, Malawi is implementing various policies, including the provision of subsidies to schools. The inability to cater for all school-related costs remains a key barrier to school access. For instance, one in four children ages 10–19 who have never attended school cite financial reasons for nonattendance. There are various hidden costs to education that families face, as shown in Figure 3.1.3. For example, while school uniforms are not mandatory, they are strongly recommended in the Free Primary Implementation guidelines and are required at the secondary education level. Additional costs include those for boarding, transportation, textbooks, stationery not provided by schools, examination fees, and data bundles for examination registration. School management committees may also impose other levies. During the COVID-19 school closures, costs related to accessing online learning further exacerbated these financial costs, as students needed to have access to computers, laptops, smartphones, and the internet. 21 Figure 4.1.3: Hidden Costs of Education 3,500.00 3,100.74 3,000.00 2,500.00 2,259.66 MK per Year 1,928.65 2,000.00 1,596.80 1,558.35 1,500.00 1,000.00 698.20 500.00 85.30 - Tutoring School School Boarding Transport PTA_fees Other books uniform Source: Estimates from the Fifth IHS The cost of education as a barrier to school attendance is more prevalent among older children and adolescents ages 15–19, which could be attributed to higher costs of education for upper secondary, compared to upper primary or lower secondary school students ages 10–14. Among the 10–14-year-olds, one in five is not in school due to financial reasons, whereas this number increases to one in three among those ages 15–19. b) Distance to School Distance to and from school is one of the top reasons for not attending school or dropping out at the primary and secondary levels, as illustrated in Figures 3.1.1 and 3.1.2. According to the MoE standards, schools should be located within a five-kilometer walking distance based on school mapping and catchment area analysis to make it easier for learners to attend school. Despite this, many learners walk long distances to access a school in their catchment area. In secondary education, for example, the existing 1,610 secondary schools are expected to serve 6,750 primary school graduates. The high demand for secondary schools, coupled with the limited supply and long distances between them all contribute to the access challenge. The government has responded by increasing day secondary schools, community secondary schools, as well as boarding schools, prioritizing girls. Where boarding schools are not available, learners often opt for self-boarding by renting space in communities around the school, which can be unsafe particularly for girls, exposing them to the risk of harassment and exploitation. Adverse weather conditions such as floods also affect attendance during the rainy season. In urban areas, the cost of transport is also a notable factor in not attending school or dropping out. Long commutes to school can also expose learners to harassment, verbal and physical abuse, and other threats. For learners with physical disabilities and limited mobility, the absence of assistive mobility devices such as wheelchairs, crutches, and white canes affects their school attendance and increases the risk of dropping out. c) School Infrastructure Education in Malawi is characterized by a general shortage of schools to accommodate student enrollment needs. In existing schools, there is inadequate basic infrastructure such as classrooms, changing rooms, water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) facilities, and facilities for the disabled, which are essential to meeting the differentiated needs of learners. In addition, some school buildings are also in serious need of rehabilitation. This contributes to low enrollment rates, increased dropout rates, and 22 overall decreased access to primary and secondary education for children and adolescents. Poor school facilities ranked the seventh leading cause for not attending primary school and eighth for secondary school. Several existing schools in Malawi have a shortage of permanent classrooms, often resulting in the use of temporary and makeshift classrooms, church buildings, and temporary learning shelters.41 At the primary level, it is common for younger students, especially in the junior primary classes, to be taught in the open, either under trees or in the sun. 22 percent of Standard 1 class students are in such temporary learning shelters or outside, which is not conducive to teaching and learning. Although the number of classrooms has increased at an average rate of 4 percent annually from 2018 to 2022,42 there remains a shortfall in the number of permanent classrooms for primary learners, leading to overcrowding. The pupil- permanent classroom ratio varies significantly from the national average of 115, ranging from 62 in Rumphi to 159 in Palombi, well above the policy target class size of 60:1. At the secondary level, the few existing classrooms are also generally overcrowded .43 Although the pupil-permanent classroom ratio slightly declined from 102 in 2021 to 98 in 2022, the class size remains much higher than the National Education Sector Investment Plan (NESIP) target of 50 students per classroom, to be reached by 2025. At the beginning of secondary education in Form 1, the centralized placement system results in unused classroom space, because not all the available places are filled. This prevents other eligible primary school graduates from progressing to secondary school. To address the lack of access to regular secondary education, schools offer the OSS program. While this program reduces the number of OOSCA, it is often characterized by poor learning conditions and limited teaching and learning materials, leading to high dropout rates, ranging from 19 to 31 percent across different districts. At the individual school level, dropout rates are about 24 percent on average.44 The share of secondary school-age children and adolescents in Malawi who attend secondary school is one of the lowest in the world. Figure 3.1.4 shows the disparity between the number of students completing Standard 8 —the final year of primary education—and those who manage to transition to Form 1, the beginning of secondary education. The data from 2020 to 2021 indicates a significant portion of students eligible for secondary education failed to make the transition, largely due to the lack of classrooms. This number adds up annually, thereby contributing to the large pool of OOSCA. 23 Figure 4.1.4: Transition from Primary to Secondary, 2020 to 2021 Source: Annual Schools Census, (MOE, 2020, 2021) In addition to the lack of classrooms, there is a significant shortage of furniture, resulting in learners often sitting on the floor, on improvised material, or books. With 4.3 million learners enrolled in public primary schools and only 112,290 desks available, the ratio of learners to desks is an overwhelming 38:1. This means that a good number of learners are forced to sit on the floor or use their knees as makeshift desks for their exercise books to write.45 This is particularly difficult for girls, whose dresses and skirts may make it uncomfortable to stand up from the floor to participate in classroom discussions. These conditions are not conducive to learning and contribute to dropping out. To address the shortage of classroom space and resulting overcrowding, the MoE has implemented a double shift policy in which learners attend classes in two groups. One cohort attends classes in the morning and the other in the afternoon, alternating weekly. Schools are expected to follow the MoE guidelines on class size reduction, overlapping, double shifting, and multi-grade teaching, with the expectation that it will reduce classroom overcrowding, improve learning outcomes, and reduce student dropout rates. Most school infrastructure is inaccessible to learners with disabilities, affecting their participation in education. Although the percentage of primary school classrooms with ramps has increased from 31 percent in 2018 to 45 percent in 2022, more than half still lack ramps. Additionally, most schools lack other essential accessibility infrastructure such as walking rails, enhanced lighting in classrooms for the blind and those with low vision, and paved pathways for those with physical disabilities. These limit learners’ access to vital educational infrastructure such as classrooms, laboratories, and libraries. Furthermore, only one percent of the 2,538 secondary schools have resource centers that house specialized equipment and aids for learners with disabilities. In primary school, resource rooms are in only twenty-five percent of the 541 zones, which are all situated in urban zones. In Malawi schools WASH facilities, which are essential for the health, comfort, and convenience of learners, are inadequate. Despite an improvement in the provision of these facilities, basic pit latrines still account for 30 percent of all latrines in primary schools, while improved pit latrines, which are more hygienic, account for 65 percent. Flush toilets, the cleaner and more hygienic option, account for 5 percent of the WASH facilities. Additionally, the provision of changing rooms, which are essential in the retention and reduction of absenteeism of girls, is insufficient. Out of 6,750 primary schools, only 2,230 are equipped with changing rooms, which translates to 33 percent of these schools. In the case of secondary 24 schools, the figure is even lower. Out of the 2,538 secondary schools, only 659 have changing rooms, equating to 25 percent of the total. d) Availability, Qualifications and Competence of Teachers The limited availability of qualified teachers in primary and secondary schools contributes to OOSCA in Malawi as learners are taught by teachers who lack adequate subject content knowledge and who must often teach large class sizes. Teachers are central to the teaching and learning process, not only in terms of delivering the curriculum but also in making the learning experience engaging. While the availability of qualified primary school teachers has improved over time, the Pupil-Teacher Ratio and Pupil-Qualified Teacher Ratio remain high, at 58:1 and 61:1, respectively. At the secondary school level, the Pupil- Qualified Teacher Ratio varies significantly across subjects, ranging from 94:1 in Home Economics to 7,204:1 in Chemistry46, as illustrated in Figure 3.1.5. In addition to the lack of subject content knowledge, the negative behaviors and attitudes of some teachers towards underperforming learners and girls contribute to poor attitudes among learners towards schooling. This can result in poor performance, and eventually, loss of interest in education and dropout. Some dropouts often perceive teachers as less interested in their success and view school discipline as ineffective and inequitably applied.47 Furthermore, teacher absenteeism is a challenge that has been difficult to control because of weak management systems, further leading to poor performance and lack of interest. In primary schools, female teachers constitute 45 percent of the total teaching force, with the majority working in urban areas. In secondary schools, female teachers represent 26 percent of all teachers. Female teachers are important because they provide support and protection for girls while also acting as role models, encouraging them to stay in school. The scarcity of specialized teachers with qualifications to teach learners with disabilities and special needs is also a challenge. Currently, the Pupil-Teacher Ratio for learners with visual impairments is 328:1, highlighting the acute shortage of teachers with the requisite requirements. Malawi has a limited capacity to train specialist teachers, with only one teacher training institute dedicated to this purpose. Figure 4.1.5: Secondary Pupil-Qualified Teacher Ratio, 2022 8,000 7,204 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,677 PqTR 4,000 3,547 3,000 2,000 1,250 1,000 94 196 213 295 300 326 371 375 443 449 - History Biology Lfe Skills Mathematics Physica English Bible Knowledge Chemisty Geography Chichewa Agricullture Computer Science Social Studies Home Economics Source: Annual Schools Census (MOE, 2022) 25 e) Early Childhood Education Early Childhood Education (ECE) has positive benefits that extend into primary school and beyond. Students who have attended ECE tend to exhibit better social skills, enhanced concentration, fewer behavioral problems, and reduced likelihood of dropping out, thereby increasing their likelihood of completing their education. Despite the benefits of ECE, access to it remains low in Malawi. Most, 3–5- year-olds are not accessing ECE, with the GER at just 31 percent in 2022. Only 40 percent of learners enrolling in the first year of primary have an ECE background, with urban areas accounting for 68 percent.48 The low enrollments in ECE indicate that many new learners, particularly those from rural areas, are not adequately prepared for primary education. This lack of preparation contributes to the highest dropout rates in Standard 1 of the primary school cycle. Additionally, the quality of ECE is poor because of several factors, including, a shortage of learning materials, inadequate infrastructure, and the quality of caregivers. These caregivers are mostly volunteers with only half of them trained.49 f) School Management Effective school management is essential to providing high-quality education. It is central to the allocation of human and material resources, as well as the organization of all school-related activities. School management is also responsible for creating a conducive learning and teaching environment in which learners feel safe and their rights are protected. Large enrollment numbers, coupled with inadequate infrastructure and, a shortage of trained teachers and educational materials require efficient distribution of resources for effective learning to take place. It is common for foundational and junior classes to be assigned less experienced or volunteer teachers, while more experienced teachers are assigned to the exam-level classes. Junior classes are often conducted in temporary classrooms, open spaces, or under trees. Some headteachers hoard textbooks and other teaching and learning materials in their offices instead of distributing them to learners. Good school leadership is essential to ensure that teachers attend school, teach, assess students, and perform their assigned responsibilities. Leadership must also ensure that teachers adhere to the Teachers’ Code of Conduct and create an environment free of gender-based violence (GBV). g) School Violence and School-Related Gender-Based Violence School-related violence, including school-related gender-based violence (SRGBV), has been on the increase and has contributed to student dropout, particularly among girls. Recent studies show a sustained increase in SRGBV within primary schools in Malawi.50 Despite numerous interventions to tackle GBV and SRGBV, the reported occurrence of sexual, physical, and emotional abuse remains high. Statistics reveal that seven in ten learners have experienced at least one form of abuse, and three in five have experienced SRGBV from a schoolmate. The abuse mostly occurs during school breaks, assemblies, sports activities, and in locations such as school toilets, nearby bushes, and unused classrooms. Among secondary school learners, SRGBV is equally prevalent, with notable instances of sexual harassment like touching the breasts of girls (22 percent), rape (20 percent), theft (15 percent), gender discrimination (13 percent), beating (13 percent), teasing (7 percent), and bullying (4 percent).51 The results further show that 55 percent of girls experienced SRGBV compared to 45 percent of boys. Corporal punishments, another form of school violence affecting both genders, are perpetrated by fellow learners, and in some cases, by teachers and headteachers. Despite these issues, the 2022 Annual Schools Census reported that 26 only 0.3 percent of primary school dropouts attributed their dropout to violence. The MoE is developing guidelines to address the rising trend in SRGBV. 4.2. Demand-Side Determinants Demand-side determinants of OOSCA include family responsibilities, cultural attitudes, early marriage, illness, and disability. These factors affect enrollment and completion of education, with some differences and similarities between the 10–14 and 15–19 age groups, as described below. a) Family Responsibilities Family responsibilities remain the leading cause of absenteeism among primary school learners, resulting in poor performance, repetition, and dropout, and this tends to affect more girls than boys. According to the 2022 Annual School Census, 27 percent of primary school learners cite family responsibilities as a leading cause of dropping out, compared to only 7 percent of secondary school learners. Responsibilities include caring for sick family members, looking after siblings, performing house chores such as cooking, cleaning, going to the market, farming during the agricultural seasons, and raising income for the family. These responsibilities are particularly burdensome in child-headed households, where older siblings look after younger ones. There is a minimal gender disparity of only 0.4 percent between boys and girls. Parents who keep their children out of school to engage in these activities do not perceive education as valuable and are likely to be uneducated themselves. This is presumably because these responsibilities may mostly be assigned to children of primary school age rather than those of secondary school age, or it might indicate a higher appreciation of secondary education among families. b) Poverty, Hunger, and Employment Poverty makes it difficult for families to afford educational costs, often necessitating that children and adolescents contribute to the family’s income. At the secondary level, the cost of school fees is the leading reason for children dropping out of school, with 47 percent of boys and 29 percent of girls citing it as a reason for dropping out. Poverty also means that the children often do not have enough to eat, and, therefore, are not able to concentrate and perform well in school, often leading to further dropouts. The proportion of people failing to consume the minimum caloric intake of 2,215 calories a day is 51 percent, unchanged from 2010.52 A positive trend is the provision of school feeding at the primary level in perceived poor districts; however, only around 35 percent of schools have a school feeding program. These programs are crucial in encouraging and sustaining school attendance, thereby boosting retention, increasing enrollment, and reducing absenteeism.53 Poverty further means that some families are not always able to meet the hidden costs of education already discussed. Learners therefore engage in income-generating activities and child labor to support their families, with employment cited as a reason for dropping out of primary education by 3.3 percent and secondary education by 2.5 percent of OOSCA. The Fifth IHS revealed that in 2020, out of the 9.3 million working-age population of ages 15–64, over 7 million were involved in some form of paid or unpaid work. These forms of work included tending to household livestock, fishing, running or helping with non-agricultural or non-fishing household businesses, or engaging in paid formal54 or ganyu piecework, in line with the International Labour Organization’s (ILO) Forms of Work Framework.55 Despite Malawi’s commitment to the international labor conventions, a 27 significant number of children and adolescents under the legal working age are found to be working. The survey estimated that in the week leading to the survey, over one million children, or 40 percent of those ages 10–14, were working. Although Malawi allows for entry into the labor market by age 1456, children below this age are still found to be working. For example, 27 percent of 10-year-olds and 50 percent of 14-year-olds surveyed were reported to be working. A significant portion of these children are involved in unpaid labor, with one-third of the 10-14 age group, and 47 percent of the 15-19 age group involved in such activities. In terms of paid labor, the survey found that 10 percent of 10–14-year-olds and 25 percent of 15–19-year-olds were in paid labor, with 9 percent in the 10-14 age group and 20 percent in the 15–19 age group participating in ganyu (Figure 3.2.1). Apart from ganyu, a report from a primary school in Dedza indicated that some parents allocate patches of land to their children to cultivate cash crops. The earnings from these crops can diminish their interest in schooling, leading some to eventually drop out to focus on farming. Figure 4.2.1: Influence of Child Labor on OOSCA Source: Authors’ estimates from Malawi Fifth IHS c) Truancy and Lack of Interest in School Truancy ranked third in the factors affecting OOSCA. It arises from several factors, including a general lack of interest in schooling, which could arise from some of the supply-side factors that have been discussed. Additionally, poor relationships with teachers and peers, coupled with a lack of encouragement and supervision of attendance by parents, could lead to truancy. Other contributing factors include indiscipline, use of drugs, bullying, and school violence. Truancy can also arise from a variety of material or social problems that are unrelated to the school environment. For example, the consequences of consistently skipping school are very severe and suggest a wider social, psychological, and educational problem.57 These consequences range from school dropout, and poor academic performance, to engaging in criminal activities, violence, drug abuse, family instability, and low self-esteem.58 This tends to affect boys more than girls, with rates of 26.5 for boys and 20.3 for girls.59 Because of its complexity, dealing with truancy effectively may require the collaborative involvement of parents, teachers, community leaders, peers, law enforcement, social services, and religious organizations.60 28 d) Early Pregnancy and Child Marriage Early pregnancy and child marriage affect girls’ ability to continue and complete their education. They are a less significant factor in primary school dropout, with pregnancy affecting 6.5 percent of female dropouts and child marriage affecting 6.3 percent. In contrast, only 1.3 percent of the boys drop out of primary school due to child marriage. At the secondary level, early pregnancy accounts for up to 19 percent of dropouts, and child marriage for 15 percent. In 2022 alone, over 5,500 girls dropped out of school due to early pregnancy, and over 4,100 due to child marriage. Factors leading to early pregnancy include lack of information about sexual and reproductive health and rights, peer pressure, and early engagement in sexual activity. Additional factors include poverty which leads young girls to engage in sexual activities for income, GBV at home and school, low socioeconomic status with minimal community and family support, sexual abuse by predators, and the influence of media such as television and social media platforms. Early pregnancies, in the absence of robust family and community support, make it difficult for young mothers to go back to school due to childcare responsibilities. Some early pregnancies result in child marriage, further making it difficult for girls to return to school. Additionally, family, community, and social pressures to marry may also force learners to marry before completing school. In some cultures, where bride price is paid, girls become a source of income for the family which may result in child marriage. Marrying off a daughter also shifts the responsibility of taking care of the girl from the father to the husband. The MoE has developed and is implementing, a readmission policy to facilitate the return of all dropouts to school, with a focus on girls. Some schools have established mother groups to provide counseling to girls to help them complete school and encourage those who have dropped out to return to school. With adequate support, mother groups can play a significant role in reducing OOSCA at both primary and secondary levels. At one school that the team for this study visited, it was reported that a pregnant girl was supported and was due to sit for her Primary School Leaving Certificate of Education examinations. e) Physical Health, Mental Health, and Disability According to IHS data, illness is a key reason why children never enroll in school, with chronic illness contributing to absenteeism, and eventually, dropout. Illness affects around 19 percent of both males and females in the 10–14 age group, and 26 percent of males and 9 percent of females in the 15–19 age group (Figure 3.1.1 and 3.1.2). Illness contributes to school dropout, affecting 10 percent of males and 8 percent of females in the 10–14 age group, and 5 percent of both males and females in the 15–19 age group. While there is no information on the illnesses that prevent students from participating in education, there is strong evidence elsewhere that malaria plays a significant role in school absenteeism. Malaria is estimated to contribute between 5 percent and 8 percent of all-cause absenteeism among African schoolchildren, equivalent to 50 percent of all preventable absenteeism, and is responsible for between 2.4 days and 6.5 days of absenteeism from school.61 The educational impact of malaria is greater for primary school children than for secondary school children. Several studies have shown that children who recover from cerebral malaria may experience lasting impairment of cognition, speech, language, and motor skills.62 29 There is no published data on asthma prevalence in Malawi, but existing data on Africa suggest that asthma prevalence is rising among children in African countries, with those affected experiencing more severe symptoms than children in high-income environments. Asthma is the most common chronic disease among children and is a major cause of morbidity.63 Children with acute asthma attacks frequently seek emergency care at the country’s largest tertiary hospital, Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital. The most severe cases often require hospitalization, which carries considerable costs for the child, their family, and the health system.64 As a result, asthma may contribute to absenteeism for children who suffer frequent attacks and prevent attendance for those with severe cases. Epilepsy is the most common chronic neurologic condition in childhood, especially in malaria-endemic areas65 like Malawi. The prevalence is estimated to be between 0.5 percent and 1 percent of the global population. Although 80 percent of children with epilepsy have seen a healthcare provider, only half were reported to be on ongoing epilepsy medication.66 Given that half of the children are not on medication, epilepsy could be a contributing factor associated with never attending school or absenteeism, which leads to dropout. Cholera, which is recurrent in Malawi, and the COVID-19 pandemic that led to school closures, also affect attendance, with no guarantee that all learners will return when schools reopen. The absence of mental health services in schools makes it difficult for learners to attend school. Malawi currently does not have teachers trained to manage mental health issues. Figure 3.2.2: Percentage Distribution of Disabilities in Schools 60.0% 53.3% 50.0% 40.0% 35.6% 34.4% 30.0% 22.2% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 6.6% 5.4% 6.5% 2.6% 4.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 0.0% Learning Low vision Hard of Physical Deaf Albinism Blind Deaf and difficulties hearng disability Dumb Primary Secondary Source: EMIS 2022 There is increasing evidence that children with disabilities are substantially less likely to attend school, more likely to come from poorer households, and generally have poorer health compared to their non- disabled peers.67 For both primary and secondary, the largest percentage of learners with disabilities face learning difficulties, followed by low vision (Figure 3.2.2). A 2017 study in Thyolo and Ntcheu districts of 30 Malawi found that 73 percent of school-age children (older than five years) with disabilities or epilepsy attended school. However, school attendance declined with age: 77 percent among 5–9-year-olds, 80 percent among 10–14-year-olds, and 57 percent among 15–18-year-olds. About 39 percent of the sampled participants had at least one disability or epilepsy, leading to an estimated prevalence of 17.3 per 1,000 children. This extrapolates to approximately 9,066 children per million people of all ages in the study districts.68 Of those with multiple impairments, 87 percent had two impairments, 12 percent with three, and 1 percent with four or five impairments. Among children with disabilities attending school, 7 percent were in nursery, 92 percent in primary, and 2 percent in secondary, indicating a low transition of learners with disabilities or epilepsy from primary school to secondary school. There was also a notable difference in school attendance rates among children with different impairments. For example, while the nonattendance rate for children with hearing impairments was 9 percent, it was significantly higher for children with other impairments or epilepsy, and for those with multiple impairments.69 Furthermore, there is currently a lack of significant data on the type and prevalence of illnesses or disability that prevent many children from ever enrolling in school, highlighting a gap that needs to be filled through future IHSs. f) Lack of Interest in Schooling Lack of interest in schooling is another factor contributing to being out of school, affecting those in primary school more than those in secondary school. Nearly half of children ages 10–19 who have never attended school were found to have no interest in going to school, with over half of the boys citing a lack of interest as the main reason for dropping out. This disinterest was consistent across the 10–14 and 15– 19 age groups, as illustrated in Figure 3.2.3 (a), and it equally affects girls’ decisions for dropping out. About six in ten girls in the 10–14 age group dropped out of school for this reason, as illustrated in Figure 3.2.3 (b). Lack of interest is also caused by the fact that many school leavers remain unemployed and not economically engaged after finishing school, implying that education has little value. Some supply-side factors discussed earlier also contribute to this lack of interest in education, particularly among those who have dropped out of school and cannot be persuaded to reenroll despite the reentry policy encouraging their return. These factors include insufficient infrastructure and furniture, poor learning environment, poor sanitation facilities, and a shortage of qualified teachers. Students who do not receive one-on-one feedback due to overcrowding or a lack of resources may lose confidence in the educational system. 31 Figure 4.2.3: Reasons for Dropping out of School a) Males b) Females 10-19 53% 35% 10-19 35% 32% 23% 15-19 53% 36% 15-19 36% 29% 26% 10-14 54% 32% 10% 10-14 26% 57% 8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% No Interest Financial Illness School Factors Financial No Interest Pregnant/Married Illness School Factors Source: Estimates from Malawi Fifth IHS g) Age of Children and Adolescents Late entry into schooling contributes to children and adolescents never attending school or dropping out, with a significant number of children starting school later than recommended. Both primary and secondary school enrollment data reveal the presence of underage and overage learners in the educational system. In 2022, despite the policy and guidelines recommending age 6 as the official entry age for primary school, only 65 percent of new entrants were 6 years old, with the remainder ranging from 5 to 12 years old.70 Girls continue to start school as late as 12 years old, with their access rate peaking at 99 percent. Boys reach a peak enrollment rate of 98 percent at 13 years old, which is a year later than girls (Figure 3.11). Children who do not enter school by age 12 for girls and 13 for boys will probably never attend school. In the 2019/2020 academic year, only 72 percent of children attending primary school were in the prescribed age group, with 26 percent being overage, a factor that is attributed to dropping out of school.71 The age of enrollment into secondary school shows more variation in terms of overage enrollment compared to primary school. Only 23 percent of secondary school entrants start secondary school at the official age of 14, with the remaining ranging anywhere from under 12 to over 25 years old, affecting the efficiency of the system. Implementing age-entry policies while providing alternative education pathways for older children could improve the efficiency of the education system. 32 Figure 4.3: Probability of Attending School 99% Probability of attending school 98% 72% 63% Male Female 33% 29% 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Age Source: Estimates from Malawi Fifth IHS h) School Performance Poor performance in school can play a role in children dropping out. Children who struggle with their studies and see little prospect of improvement, especially those who lack the necessary parental or teacher support are more likely to drop out. Learning challenges and continued poor performance often lead to low examination scores, preventing students from progressing to higher education levels. In Table 3.2.1, Error! Reference source not found.results of the end-of-primary education examination in 2021 r evealed that 16 percent of all candidates examined, of which 20 percent were girls, failed. These children and adolescents will most likely end their schooling at this point, particularly because there are insufficient secondary school places, even for the candidates who pass their examinations. It is worth noting that about 3 percent of registered candidates never get to sit for their final primary examinations, predisposing them to either repeating the grade or dropping out of school entirely. Table 4.2.1: Primary School Leaving Certificate Examination Results, 2021 Boys Girls Total Registered 138,250 139,840 278,090 Examined 135,480 134,670 270,150 Passed 118,410 108,110 226,520 Pass Rate 87.4% 80.3% 83.8% Source: 2022 Education Statistics Report (MoE, 2022) In TEVET, there is also evidence of students dropping out and failing to complete their studies. Nevertheless, TEVET offers students the opportunity to repeat any levels they fail until they pass. In 2022, the assessment and certification unit of the MoL revealed that out of the 12,369 students assessed, only 46 percent passed. 64 percent of the assessed girls passed, compared to 40 percent of boys.72 Despite the reassessment opportunities, the high failure rate for both boys and girls resulted in over 54 percent leaving college without obtaining their certification. 33 4.3. Key Findings on Enrollment and Dropout Reasons The review indicates that underpinning factors that lead to a child not enrolling in school or dropping out are categorized into supply-side and demand-side factors. Key factors attributed to dropping out of school include family responsibilities, especially at the primary school level; financial constraints, where families are unable to meet direct or indirect costs of education due to poverty; the distance to schools, which is a function of the limited number of secondary schools; lack of interest in education from children and adolescents, which is particularly associated with internal and external inefficiencies in the education system; and for females, especially in the 15-19 age group, pregnancies and early marriages. These factors converge to undermine the commitment to education and training of eligible children and adolescents. 34 35 5. Policies and Programs for Second Chance Programs 5.1. Framework For Supporting Out-of-School Children and Adolescents The 2007 World Development Report (WDR), “Development and the Next Generation,”73 highlights the importance of investing in youth to accelerate growth and reduce poverty. The consequences of not supporting youth development extend beyond the present and future workforce to subsequent generations, as today’s youth become parents and shape the human capital of their children. The report details the need to focus on opportunities by building human capital, empowering young people to make decisions, and providing second chances through targeted programs for those who have not benefited from education and skills training. The report proposes a few areas of policy action, with two being particularly relevant to the situation in Malawi: 1. Building a strong educational foundation by providing quality basic education, including in lower secondary, to improve the educational preparedness of adolescents; and 2. Supporting children and adolescents who have not been able to acquire basic skills through what the WDR refers to as “second chance” programs, which include a system of remedial education, equivalency programs, literacy programs, and skills training, all designed to cater to the diverse needs and economic conditions of adolescents. Second chance programs and issues to consider for OOSCA re-engagement. The WDR highlights the need for a mix of second chance programs which usually include a combination of the following: • Remedial programs. Well-designed remedial programs have proven to be successful in improving school outcomes for students of different ages in very diverse environments, and often help the most disadvantaged students. • Equivalency programs. These programs provide youth with an alternative pathway back into the education system. Usually, such programs use more practical curricula, more flexible schedules, and less formal instruction methods as opposed to traditional schooling. • Literacy programs. Adult literacy programs teach not only reading, writing, and arithmetic but also incorporate job and life skills relevant to the local context. More contextual and demand- driven programs that can attract enrollees and keep them interested is a big challenge of literacy programs. • Job training. Vocational training programs for out-of-school youth can be more cost-effective by improving the targeting and ensuring that these programs are complemented with other services and tailored to the needs of local labor markets. The WDR recognizes that second chance programs can be costly, but still less costly than adult remediation programs. In developing these programs, it is crucial to ensure they are integrated into the broader human capital delivery system, are directed toward the most in need, and are designed to supplement, rather than replace family-based safety nets. Experience from Africa points to the need to provide both alternative education and return pathways for out-of-school youth.74 Support is usually divided into remediation programs to reintegrate out-of-school youth into formal education, and alternative workforce development education programs to facilitate their entry into the labor market. Some lessons point to the need for such alternative programs to have multiple entry and exit points, 36 maintain close association with the formal education system, be locally relevant, and be tailored to the youth’s needs while also being sustainable and scalable.75 In terms of lessons to effectively reengage learners who have been left out of the system, ‘Reengaging at- risk youth into education’76 emphasizes the need to consider the complexity of risks faced by the youth at both the individual and contextual levels. The work points out that risk factors faced by out-of-school youth are not only complex and cumulative, but also interact with the social ecology of individuals. It is important to understand the multidimensional risks that contribute to the disengagement of youth and adolescents from education to ensure that as programs are developed, they incorporate mentoring and psychosocial support mechanisms, among other interventions. 5.2. National Policies on Dropout and Retention The Government of Malawi has developed and is reviewing some of its policies to address the challenge of OOSCA. The policies are designed to promote and improve access to education for all children, improve the retention and completion rates by addressing the underlying reasons for repetition and dropout, and facilitate reentry for dropouts. a) Malawi Education Act Chapter 30:01 The Education Act supports the provision of the Constitution that provides for nondiscrimination in education by making primary education free and compulsory for all children under the age of 18. The act further sets the school entry at age 6 years. Despite these provisions for compulsory and free education, the government has not been able to implement these provisions. Compulsory education would require the government to provide all necessary resources for eligible learners, such as infrastructure, qualified teachers, and adequate teaching and learning materials to facilitate effective learning in an inclusive environment. As already discussed, there was a decline in primary education enrollments between 2021 and 2022, indicating that there are many intervening variables affecting access to education, some of which cannot be controlled or regulated. The already challenging task of delivering free and compulsory primary education is made even more challenging by a population growth rate of 2.7 percent. This is particularly true in an environment where the government is already grappling with the provision of adequate educational resources, thereby exacerbating the issue of OOSCA. b) Promotion Policy for Malawi Schools The Malawi Schools Promotion Policy of 2018 is designed to reduce repetition and dropout rates by establishing a clear framework aimed at enhancing grade promotion rates, minimizing repetition and dropout rates, and improving primary school completion rates.77 The policy seeks to address the factors that cause repetition through five priority areas that seek to (a) reduce widespread absenteeism among teachers and learners by offering teacher incentives linked to performance, providing learners with school meals, and creating more engaging and friendly school environments; (b) identify low-performing learners through effective continuous assessment, and provide adequate and timely remedial support to these learners, involving parents, communities, and employing auxiliary teachers where necessary; (c) reduce repetition through selective automatic promotion for learners in Standards 1, 3, 5, and 7, with learners 37 allowed to repeat only once in Standards 2, 4, and 6; (d) standardize the end-of-cycle examinations in Standards 2, 4, and 6 through standardized district-level examinations to ensure teachers cover the whole syllabus and equitable promotion based on a common benchmark across the district; and (e) ensure that promotion is based on acquisition of core outcomes and skills necessary for advancement to the next level. 2018 to 2022 data on repetition rates by standard does not indicate a clear trend that reflects the policy’s effectiveness. Repetition rates vary annually and have remained consistently high in Standard 1 and across all standards in 2022. This indicates a limited impact on the reduction of repetition thus far. The government has standardized end-of-third-term common zonal tests for Standards 3 through 8 and plans to extend this to all schools by 2024. c) Readmission Policy for Primary and Secondary Schools The Readmission Policy was first initiated in 1993 to facilitate the readmission of pregnant girls and male learners responsible for the pregnancy. Early pregnancies and child marriages are among the major reasons for girls dropping out of school, especially at the secondary level. In addition to facilitating the return of these learners to school, the policy also seeks to address the challenges that dropouts face when attempting to return and complete school. The revised Readmission Policy of 2018 attempts to address the challenges the first policy faced. These challenges included: (i) punitive and reactionary measures as opposed to supporting the learner; (ii) lack of clarity in the readmission procedures and lengthy processes to readmit the learners; (iii) negative attitudes towards teenage mothers and socioeconomic constraints which often lead to early marriages; and (iv) unprofessional teachers.78 The revised policy guides stakeholders on the readmission of learners into schools to improve access, retention, and completion of education. The policy has four priority areas: (i) Simplify and standardize the readmission procedure while also providing support to the readmitted girls through counseling and psychosocial support, academic remediation, and protection against discrimination from teachers and peers. (ii) Increase age-appropriate knowledge and information on reproductive health and life skills to reduce early pregnancies and marriage. (iii) Address the challenges that the readmitted learners face both as mothers and learners and challenge the negative attitudes and stigma they face through the provision of specialized support at the family and community levels. These include local by-laws that advocate for girls’ education and sensitization of communities and local leaders about the readmission policy to enhance its effectiveness and reach. (iv) Enhance coordination and collaboration among key stakeholders at the national, district, and community levels. The key stakeholders include the Ministry of Health, Ministry of Youth and Sports, Ministry of Gender, Disability and Social Welfare, other relevant government departments, development partners, and civil society. The policy specifies the roles and responsibilities of all the key stakeholders under the leadership of the MoE. 38 Figure 4.2.1:Number of Learners Readmitted, 2019-2022 6,000 1.4% 5,000 1.2% Percent of Total Enrolment Re-admitted Learnersitle 1.0% 4,000 0.8% 3,000 0.6% 2,000 0.4% 1,000 0.2% - 0.0% 2019 2020 2021 2022 Male Female % of Total Source: Annual Schools Census (MOE, 2019-2022) The data on secondary school readmissions indicates that in 2022, about 3,020 students (790 male and 2,230 female) were readmitted throughout Malawi. This represents a decline from the 6,080 students readmitted in 2021. As shown in Figure 4.2.1, female learners accounted for 73.4 percent of the total readmissions in 2022, indicating a clear focus on female readmission. Further analysis shows that the readmitted learners were only 9 percent of the total male dropouts and 16 percent of the total female dropouts, indicating a low return on the readmission policy. At the primary level, there were 87,800 primary returnees, constituting 2 percent of the total enrollment of 4,943,600, with Standard 1 having the largest percentage at 32 percent. While the policy provided dropouts an opportunity to return to school, its impact on reenrolling dropouts, especially boys, has been limited. d) The TEVET Act of 1999 and TEVET Policy The TEVET Policy provides for the promotion and coordination of technical, entrepreneurial, and vocational education and training and establishes the TEVET Authority (TEVETA) and the TEVET levy . The TEVET Policy 2013 focuses on identifying skills gaps and developing options and strategies for enhancing TEVET objectives and improving the efficiency and effectiveness of the TEVET system. The policy aims to mainstream TEVET in all potential sectors of economic growth and development and improve employability, job creation, and productivity. The TEVET Policy is being revised and is undergoing review by the MoL. With the development of the harmonized qualification system, Malawi has recently undertaken a bold step toward consolidating its rather fragmented system of TEVET delivery. Despite this progress, the legacy of the decades-long fragmentation persists, characterized by multiple authorities awarding parallel qualifications within and outside Malawi, sometimes for training conducted at the same institution. This has resulted in a system with different, often overlapping, programs and categories of students. Formal TEVET programs lead to full qualifications after long-term post-secondary training. This system includes both regular students who benefit from subsidies and support from TEVETA, and parallel students, jointly including between 7,000 to 10,000 new entrants a year. By default, formal TEVET is delivered through apprenticeship training in National Technical Colleges (NTCs) and Community Technical Colleges (CTCs), accredited private training institutions, and selected Community Skills Development 39 Centers (CSDCs). The duration of this formal apprenticeship training is up to four years, beginning with a one-year pre-apprenticeship program at a training institution, followed by a sandwich program between institution-based and work-based training. The total share of work-based training in most cases is 50 percent. Formal TEVET is provided in a range of 22 trades, with traditional technical trades dominating. While enrollment of young women is concentrated in traditional female-dominated trades, there has been a crossover from female to male-dominated trades in recent years. Informal TEVET in Malawi includes all forms of skills development outside formal TEVET. This includes what, in other countries, would be referred to as non-formal skills development and informal skill development. Informal TEVET in Malawi comprises a broad range of programs and skills development sub- systems, which cater to all types of target groups irrespective of educational background or age. All informal TEVET courses are certifiable by TEVETA through TEVET certificates, which represent a partial qualification under the Malawi TEVET Qualifications Framework. The TEVET system is riddled with a myriad of challenges, ranging from a lack of stakeholder coordination and consultations, slow reforms, lack of adequate facilities and modern equipment low-quality instruction, low participation of females, and lack of capacity for technician-level training. These challenges result in limited access, low market relevance, and equity concerns in TEVET service provision. Such challenges are not unique to Malawi; in the sub-Saharan region, TEVET is characterized by a significant lack of practical relevance and responsiveness to labor market needs, insufficient facilities and equipment, extremely low outputs, and poor-quality teaching. Several projects supported by development partners have been implemented to address these challenges. These initiatives are focused on supporting the government in its plan to reduce poverty by increasing employment and self- employment through appropriate TEVET programming and policy reform. However, to date, about 23 percent of the youth remain unemployed, and the TEVET system, which could give the youth skills for meaningful self and job opportunities, continues to struggle with low enrollment which is far below regional rates. 5.3. Ongoing Projects for Access, Quality, and Retention Within the NESIP 2020-2023, ongoing government and donor-funded operations are being implemented to improve access, equity, retention, and quality of education at primary, secondary, and TEVET levels in Malawi. Below is a summary of programs that support the government at the primary, secondary, and TEVET education levels. Primary Level At the primary education level, key development partners, including the World Bank, the Global Partnership for Education (GPE), the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) are supporting the government in implementing interventions to tackle the key constraints to achieving equitable access to quality primary education. • The World Bank, through the International Development Association (IDA) and GPE supports the Malawi Education Reform Program ($150 million budget for the period 2021 to 2025). The project 40 aims to improve the learning environments for students in lower primary in government schools through improvements in the efficiency of school grants, construction of 10,900 cost-effective classrooms, improvement in the distribution of teachers, interventions to close gender gaps, and the implementation of a school leadership training program. • The FCDO-funded Strengthening Malawi’s Education System Project (£39.1 million budget for the period 2018 to 2024) project focuses on improving the quality of primary school completion and improving foundational skills of students in early grade mathematics. Key activities include supporting the reform of the primary school mathematics curriculum with relevant teaching and learning materials, as well as training of primary school teachers; strengthening the public sector system to deliver efficient education, including the availability of data for use in planning and accountability; and providing targeted support to marginalized girls to complete primary school and transition to secondary school. • USAID has various interventions focused at the pre-primary and primary levels. o At the pre-primary level, the Next Generation Pre-Primary Pilot focuses on enhancing curriculum, materials, teacher training on oral language development, pre-reading skills, and social-emotional learning. o At the lower primary level, the Next Generation Early-Grade Reading Activity (US$75 million budget for the period 2022-2027), aims to improve Grade 2 reading proficiency and oral expression in Chichewa and English through training and coaching teachers and school leaders, development of materials, assessment, and remediation. The project also includes the use of data, support for children with disabilities, family engagement programs to improve reading skills, and a $5 million budget for printing and distributing teaching and learning materials, including Standards 1-4 English and Chichewa learner books and teacher guides. o In upper primary, USAID is implementing the Upper Primary Reading Activity (US$4 million budget for the period 2021-2026) and the National Reading Program Implementation and Expansion (US$5 million budget for the period 2021-2023), which aims at developing teacher guides and learner materials for Standards 5-8 in Chichewa and English, and strengthening the MoE’s capacity for materials development, as well as developing Chichewa and English reading benchmarks for Standards 1-4. o In teacher education, USAID is supporting the Strengthening Teacher Education and Practice Project ($15.6 million budget for the period 2022-2027) through an in-service program. The program supports primary school teachers upgrade their qualifications from certificate to diploma level, the development of a national continuous professional development plan, and efforts to strengthen pre-service teacher training at teacher training colleges. Secondary Level At the secondary education level, development partners, including the World Bank, FCDO, European Union (EU), and USAID, are supporting the government in implementing interventions to address key constraints to achieving equitable access to quality secondary education. These interventions include: 41 • The World Bank Equity through the Quality and Learning at Secondary Project (US$95 million budget for the period 2019-2025) aims to improve the quality of science and mathematics instruction in community day secondary schools and increase access to secondary education in selected remote areas. • The EU, through the Improving Secondary Education in Malawi II Project (EUR 55 million budget for the period 2014-2020) focuses on providing youth, including those with disabilities, with more equitable opportunities for completing good quality secondary education in targeted secondary schools. Key actions through these projects include teacher orientation to align teaching practices with the recently approved curriculum, the preparation and procurement of appropriate teaching and learning materials, enhancing school management and instructional leadership through head teacher training, and the provision of scholarships to vulnerable students. The projects also introduce a compulsory life-skills subject to support adolescent girls, measurement of learning outcomes, Remedial activities to strengthen the learning process, and aid in post-pandemic recovery. Additionally, the projects invest in cost-effective classroom construction and teacher recruitment to boost enrollment and improve learning conditions by lowering the student-to-classroom and student-to-teacher ratios. Finally, the projects support the development of a secondary school expansion model that encompasses reforms such as an open, distance, and e-learning policy, Open Secondary School strategy, Secondary Education Public-Private Partnership Framework, double shift system, and e-selection. • The USAID Secondary Education Expansion for Development Project (US$90 million budget for the period 2019-2023) is focused on increasing access and equity to secondary schools in urban areas by upgrading infrastructure in existing schools, including classrooms, sanitary facilities, boreholes, teacher houses, science classrooms, administrative spaces, textbooks, furniture, and laboratory equipment. The project is also constructing 200 new secondary schools across the country in underserved rural areas to reduce the distance to school. This will subsequently, increase access, retention, and completion rates for girls, reduce early pregnancies, marriages, new HIV infections, and improve transition rates from secondary to tertiary education. TEVET At the TEVET level, development partners, including the World Bank, EU, GIZ, Norway, and up until recently, the African Development Bank (AfDB), are supporting the government through the MoL, in the implementation of interventions, including: • The World Bank Skills for a Vibrant Economy Project (US$100 million budget for the period 2021- 2026) is supporting increased access, particularly for females, to labor market-relevant skills development programs in participating institutions, targeting priority areas of the economy. Part of the project aims to enhance the capacity of TEVET providers to increase access, quality, and relevance of market-relevant skills training, particularly for females. Support is targeted at seven National Technical Colleges, with a competitive grants award program that supports up to 30 selected CSDCs, CTCs, and private technical colleges. Other project-funded activities also include 42 support for vulnerable students through a bursary scheme, student support mechanisms, and TEVET systems strengthening through technology-assisted training. • The EU, through the Zantchito (Skills for Jobs) Program (EUR 55 million budget for the period 2020- 2027), supports the expansion and improvement of equitable and gender-balanced TEVET through improving access, reviewing the qualifications system, updating curricula and improving governance and management of the TEVET system. Additionally, the project supports the training of TEVET teachers and trainers through UNESCO-supported skills and technical education programs. The project also plans to rehabilitate and replenish equipment and provide grants to NGOs. • Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), in collaboration with the Royal Norwegian Embassy, supports the Empowering Youth in Agribusiness Program (US$4 million budget for the period 2019-2024). The program supports AgroTEVET for the employment of rural youth and women. It focuses on the provision of AgroTEVET skills in target rural districts focused on technical, business, entrepreneurial, and life skills, particularly for women. The target districts include Mchinji, Lilongwe, Mzimba, Kasungu, Dowa, Ntchisi, Salima and Nkhotakota. 5.4. Second-Chance Programs in Malawi To ensure that children who have dropped out of the education system have access to quality education through to age 18, the government and development partners support various second-chance pathways for OOSCA. This section provides examples of some second-chance pathways being implemented in Malawi, as well as international best practices. a) Complementary Basic Education program Complementary Basic Education (CBE) offers an accelerated two-year learning program that mirrors the primary education curriculum. It targets individuals ages 9–14 who have never enrolled in school or who have dropped out. The program covers the essentials of the Standards 1-5 curriculum, and successful completers of the program are expected to reintegrate into primary school at Standard 6. At the end of the two years79, CBE participants take an exit or placement examination to determine the appropriate grade level for their transition to primary school. This exit exam is particularly important due to the varying levels of ability and the time it takes for learners to complete the course, often influenced by absenteeism. Due to high demand, individuals ages 15–17 are also allowed to enroll, since they are not eligible for adult literacy programs intended for ages 18 and older. CBE is designed to be a relatively cost-effective alternative to formal basic education. It is characterized by smaller class sizes (capped at 40) than the average class size in formal primary schools, the proximity of centers to learners, local recruitment of paraprofessional teachers, flexible class schedules, child- friendly and participatory teaching methods, use of locally available resources, and community management of learning centers.80 The CBE program also features a comprehensive livelihoods curriculum covering various livelihood skills such as carpentry, tin smithing, sewing, and crocheting. However, this curriculum is not being implemented due to a shortage of teaching materials. 43 Malawi, like other countries worldwide, is implementing a CBE program in communities with high rates of OOSCA.81 The MoE oversees the implementation of the program, with most of the basic education functions decentralized to local councils and NGOs. In the 2022/23 academic year, Malawi saw CBE implemented in 28 of the 32 education districts82, through 204 learning centers targeting about 9,000 OOSCA. Funding for CBE is allocated based on the number of learning centers in each district, averaging MWK 5.38 million per district and MWK 26,400 per center. An additional MWK 297 million is designated for teaching and learning materials, and monitoring. The MoE supports CBE by providing teaching and learning materials, monitoring implementation by districts and NGOs, providing policy direction for CBE implementation modalities, training trainers through its core team, and organizing review meetings with implementing partners. Although Malawi has implemented CBE for 17 years, there is no guiding policy on its implementation, resulting in varied teaching models among stakeholders.83 To address this, the MoE is piloting a one-year CBE model, in collaboration with CARE Malawi, to establish a model that other partners can use. Following this pilot, the model will be rolled out in the 2024/25 academic year. Field visits conducted for this study revealed that some CBE centers exceeded the expected class size of 40, with enrollment reaching or surpassing 100, and fluctuating with dropout. In terms of learning outcomes, the performance of CBE learners compared favorably with those in the formal primary school, and the transition to primary was over 50 percent, except for 2022, when the figure dropped to 29 percent. This decline was mainly attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic which caused many learners not to return following school closures. Generally, learners who complete CBE and reenter formal education tend to be mostly younger. The 2019 Education Sector Analysis points to a high dropout rate from CBE, with reasons including (a) program content, which is aligned to the primary curriculum, is perceived as not relevant or linked to the practical skills required for socioeconomic survival and rejoining primary school does not match the actual goals of many learners; and (b) quality of teaching and learning, with CBE facilitators often lacking adequate training to effectively deliver the program, and a shortage of teaching and learning materials. To enhance the effectiveness of the CBE program, and attract and retain learners, facilitators need to support struggling learners. In addition, the CBE learning center management committee comprising influential community members, which is equivalent to the primary school management committee, can mobilize parents and community members to enhance learner participation in the program. b) Transformational Empowerment for Adolescent Marginalized Girls in Malawi An example of an NGO-implemented CBE intervention is the Transformational Empowerment for Adolescent Marginalized Girls in Malawi (TEAM Girl Malawi) Project. The project supports out-of-school girls ages 10–19 to build functional literacy and numeracy skills. TEAM Girl Malawi is designed to reach three cohorts of girls, and, upon completion of the two-year program, participants can transition into one of four pathways: (a) reenroll in primary school at Standard 5; (b) enroll in vocational training; (c) return to current situation with essential life skills for better quality of life; and (d) transition into safe, paid self- employment as part of a loan group. The project extends beyond providing skills by linking recipients to microfinancing, which is essential for the practical application of skills acquired in income-generating activities. 44 Team Girl Malawi is implemented in the central western region districts of Malawi of Dedza, Lilongwe, and Mchinji by Link Education International and Link Community Development Malawi, in collaboration with its partners,84 and with funding from FCDO. The project is implemented in four key areas of intervention: (a) community-based CBE centers; (b) girls’ clubs located in the same space as CBEs; (c) support for transition into primary school, vocational training, and business training supported by micro- loans located in select communities; and (d) support to families, community members, and government staff. Results of a midline review of the project revealed an overall improvement in literacy and numeracy for the first cohort of girls, as measured by the early-grade reading assessment and early-grade mathematics assessment. Overall, 85.9 percent of girls improved their aggregate numeracy score from the baseline to the midline.85 Younger girls were more likely to select transitioning to primary school when reenrolling, but older girls preferred transitioning to skills or vocational training, entrepreneurship, or employment. In terms of impact, most of the first cohort of girls had improved their life skills, as had the capacity of the facilitators to practice gender-responsive pedagogy, and inclusive and child-centered teaching methods.86 The project has benefitted 5,250 girls and 1,050 boys. Like other second-chance programs, Team Girl Malawi experiences a high dropout rate. The reasons cited for dropout include a lack of interest in program offerings, the necessity to engage in income-generation activities, lack of parental support, and the class schedule.87 The challenge, therefore, is how to retain participants who are enrolled in these second-chance pathways to improve their education and livelihoods. c) Out-of-School Youth Functional Literacy program The Out-of-School Youth (OSY) Functional Literacy program supports the 15–21 age group in rural areas and is managed by the Ministry of Youth and Sports. While the program focuses on literacy, it faces challenges in terms of coverage and relevance to the needs of learners. According to the Malawi Education Sector Analysis report, the program enrolled 14,895 female youth in three districts between 2015 and 2018/19, with 11,674 graduating from the program. In terms of results, the program has struggled with dropout, but it is worth mentioning that about 18 percent of the dropouts went back into the formal system. The program is also characterized by limited funding, and evaluation to determine the effectiveness of the program. d) Open Secondary School OSS aims to make secondary education accessible to all individuals of any age who have passed the Primary School Leaving Certificate of Education. The program offers a more flexible pathway than the conventional secondary school and is implemented across all educational divisions in Malawi through face-to-face and distance learning modalities using existing school infrastructure. It is conducted in 278 of the 1,610 secondary schools, with 74,105 enrolled students, accounting for about 17 percent of the total secondary school enrollment of 441,100. The Malawi College of Distance Education (MCDE) department in the MoE oversees implementation, with the head of the participating school responsible for managing the program at the individual school level. There is a high dropout rate from open secondary schooling, with dropouts varying by division, ranging from 19 to 31 percent. At the school level, dropout rates are at an average of 24 percent.88 There is no 45 information on the main causes of dropping out, but it is presumed that the reasons are the same as those that lead to dropping out of the conventional secondary school system. Such reasons include the cost of education and the program’s strict attendance policy, structured like a formal secondary school system. However, the reported number of students who drop out of OSS may have to be interpreted with caution, as those assumed to have dropped out may have just changed schools and locations, or may have joined the mainstream school systems. A more accurate understanding of the situation can be obtained by using the OSS pass rates. For example, at Dedza Secondary School, of the 198 students enrolled in the OSS open, distance, and e-learning program who were registered to sit for the Malawi School Certificate of Education in 2022, 67 percent (or 133 students) passed, and 8 percent (or 11 students) were admitted into public universities. The implementation of OSS in Malawi has faced challenges. Although the MoE and the Department of Quality Assurance and Standards are responsible for providing implementation oversight, there are no clear operational and implementation guidelines at the school level. Additionally, students do not have access to laboratories, libraries, and textbooks, which are available in the formal secondary school system. Tuition fees, and how these fees are used, are not structured, as they are determined at the individual school level. Face-to-face teaching hours are significantly lower than those for formal secondary education, resulting in limited coverage of the syllabus. For distance learning, students face challenges accessing online materials due to the costs of hardware and online connectivity. The MoE is currently developing a strategy to address these implementation issues, with a focus on governance, management, and quality aspects of the program. e) Ad-hoc Short-Term Skills Development Programs Ad-hoc short-term skills development programs offer training in various trades and occupations within key economic sectors and are delivered through informal TEVET training programs. These programs are designed to meet local labor market demands and are tailored to the basic educational needs of OOSCA. Providers, including TEVET Service Centers (that use TEVETA vans to deliver training), CTCs, CSDCs, private technical colleges, and community-based and NGO-run training institutions deliver these programs with funding from the government, TEVETA, and other development partners. TEVETA certifies all informal TEVET programs, providing TEVET certificates as a partial qualification under the Malawi TEVET Qualifications Framework. Different providers are engaged in delivering informal skills development programs in Malawi with positive results. For example, Community-based, and NGO-run training institutions provide skills training program options targeting various groups, with a focus on diverse trades and occupations. TEVETA is enhancing informal apprenticeships by supporting master craftspeople in the informal sector, who have taken part in ‘training of trainers’ programs, with the assurance of quality conducted by TEVETA. Chongoni CTC is implementing informal programs financed by development partners. Financing from World Relief supports two hundred students from TA Kaphuka in Dedza in informal TEVET training programs. The Solar Environment Ecology Institute provides targeted informal training for rural women and adolescent girls in solar skills installation, entrepreneurship, business establishment, and self-help group saving programs. From 2019 to 2023, TEVET Service Centers trained 6,702 students through CSDCs and 5,215 through master craftspeople. 46 There are indications that demand for informal TEVET programs far exceeds the available supply, but Malawi faces challenges in the provision of market-relevant, high-quality programs. The extent of these challenges varies with the number of informal TEVET providers and primarily revolve around financing constraints, program quality, and the relevance of programs to market needs. CSDCs and CTCs often face issues with insufficient financing and struggle to offer programs tailored to the needs of learners and the local informal labor market demands, including mid-level skills. Often, beneficiaries are unable to afford fees, which further contributes to financing shortages. The quality of programs offered also differs among providers, depending on the expertise of the master craftsperson, in a market where there is a limited industry base to identify skilled master craftspeople and to accurately assess labor market needs. There are also few studies available to evaluate the impact and relevance of these programs. Table 4.4.1. Overview of Policies and Programs Supporting OOSCA in Malawi Covers 10- expansion Coverage Potential Females Level of Targets Funder Covers 15-19 14 Help ensure children learn and complete secondary education Malawi Education Act Chapter 30:01 N X X X Gov’t (MoE) Promotion Policy for Malawi Schools N X X Gov’t (MoE) Readmission Policy for Primary & Secondary N X X X Gov’t (MoE) Schools TEVET Policy N X Gov’t (MoL) X N X X Gov’t (MoE) Expanding Equitable Access to Education X T X Dev Partners (WB, EU, FCDO, USAID) X N X X Gov’t (MoE) Critical Interventions to Support Learning X T Dev Partners (WB, EU, FCDO, USAID) X X X Gov’t (MoL) Improved access, relevance, and quality of TEVET X T X X Dev. Partners (WB, EU, GIZ, Norway) Alternative Pathways Back into the Formal Education System Complementary Basic Education X N X Gov’t (MOE) Out-of-School Youth Functional Literacy Program X N X X Gov’t (Ministry of Youth and Sports) Open Secondary School X N X Gov’t (MoE) Transformational Empowerment for Adolescent X T X X X Dev Partner Marginalized Girls in Malawi (TEAM Girl Malawi) Skills training Programs linked to the Labor Market Ad-hoc short-term skills development programs X N X Gov’t (MOL) (TEVETA, CTCs, CSDCs, Private Technical Colleges, /NGO/Dev CSOs, NGOs) Partners Transformational Empowerment for Adolescent X T X X X Dev Partner Marginalized Girls in Malawi (TEAM Girl Malawi). Key: X= Yes; N= No implemented, or available nationwide, T= Needs-based targeting deployment. 47 5.5. Lessons and International Experience There are global examples of innovated second chance options that have the potential of successfully addressing the challenge of OOSCAs, and from which important lessons can be learned for the Malawi context. These include the following: a) Ghana: Results-based financing to increase access through diverse service providers. Ghana’s estimated 452,984 out-of-school children ages 6–14 are predominantly female and marginalized by poverty and disability, and are concentrated in four regions of the country.89 In response to these challenges, the Ghana Education Services, in collaboration with NGOs and with financing from FCDO and USAID, introduced a CBE program to support up to 280,000 out-of-school children. The Ghana CBE offers a nine-month accelerated program in schools or community facilities, with literacy, numeracy, and life skills teaching delivered in local languages by local facilitators. The CBE offers three hours of instruction in the afternoon to enable children to balance education and household and farming responsibilities, a major challenge affecting Ghana’s out-of-school children population. The program supports children to transition to the nearest public school to continue with their education, mainly at the primary education level. The World Bank-funded Ghana Accountability for Learning Outcomes Project aims to improve the quality of education in low-performing basic education schools. It also seeks to strengthen education sector equity and accountability by strengthening support for schools and out-of-school children through education outcomes funding. The project supports: (i) re-integration of out-of-school children into the education system, building on the success of the CBE program, and expanding it to incentivize enrollment, learning and retention in school; and (ii) improved learning in schools benefitting from education outcomes funding, with an emphasis on literacy and numeracy. A priority focus of the project is on supporting marginalized out-of-school children such as girls, children with disabilities, and those from the poorest households.90 The World Bank provides funding through results-based financing, where the Ministry of Education identifies service providers to deliver quality education to out-of-school children and integrate them in schools benefitting from education outcomes funding. The ministry also identifies social investors to provide initial capital to service providers to ensure they have the necessary funding. The ministry then reimburses eligible project expenditures made by the investors or providers, contingent on the achievement of predefined results and verified expenditure reports, including an agreed margin linked to a funding formula. Building on the success of the CBE Program, service providers conduct all classes and learning assessments for out-of-school children in the appropriate local language chosen by the community. Providers focus on supporting the children to transition from the program to education outcomes funding beneficiary schools, ensuring that they enroll and stay in the nearest school after the program. The funding formula91 provides additional rewards for learning gains and transition and retention of girls. The project also encourages social investors and service providers to monitor and encourage the inclusion of children with disabilities and those from low-income households. 48 Service providers have the autonomy to select context-specific interventions and the project expects providers to support children to stay in school and to learn effectively. Their interventions may encompass a variety of strategies, including, distance and remote education, teacher and teacher assistant training for remedial instruction, better safeguarding and child protection, increased community and parental engagement, and guidance and counseling. Additional interventions include cash transfers and bursary packages for learners, targeted instruction, translation into local language and sign language, behavioral change communications, digital attendance monitoring, additional printed teaching and learning materials, and technology-enabled teaching and learning solutions. An independent verification agency rigorously measures results to determine learning gains attributable to each service provider. The project involves multiple key stakeholders, including the government which selects the schools, sets target outcomes, regulates, and oversees the service providers and NGOs who design and implement the interventions. In collaboration with development partners, the government reimburses social investors for their contributions to the service providers based on performance and achievements verified by the independent verification agency. b) Bangladesh: Improved Skills Training and Second Chance Programs to Support OOSCA In Bangladesh, around five million children ages 6–13 remained out of school, mostly in underserved areas and urban slums. Bangladesh enrollment and gender parity rates improved at both primary and secondary levels in the mid-2010s. However, the country still faced a persistently high adult functional illiteracy rate of over 50 percent and low education completion rates. To address the challenge of OOSCA, Bangladesh implemented the Skills and Training Enhancement Project to sustain economic growth through improved training quality and employability of trainees, including those from disadvantaged socioeconomic backgrounds.91 The project improved the quality and relevance of technical and vocational education in Bangladesh, equipping individuals with skills in demand by employers in the country and abroad, thereby facilitating the exportation of a skilled workforce. Through financial support and reforms, the project focused on improving opportunities for women and those from disadvantaged backgrounds. The percentage of women completing the program increased from 10 percent to 26 percent.92 The project was followed by two additional financing projects referred to as Reaching Out-of-School Children Projects I and II. The projects piloted alternative approaches aimed at providing a second chance primary education to out-of-school children ages 6-12. It was built upon the experiences of both public and NGO education providers, blending formal and non-formal means of delivery to provide young learners with an opportunity to complete Grade 5 and transition to secondary education. The Projects assisted the government in establishing learning centers at the local community level, offering grants and educational allowances to enroll. The projects further strengthened the capacity of communities and local institutions, empowering them to deliver quality education to out-of-school children. Findings from two independent impact evaluations suggested significant effects of project interventions on enrollment and student learning levels. Through these interventions, 735,000 disadvantaged children from underserved rural areas and urban slums (half of them girls) benefitted from primary education through innovative and community-led programs. 25,000 adolescent school dropouts from hard-to-reach and crises-affected regions and 112,000 displaced Rohingya children who fled conflict in Myanmar benefitted from training. The projects also reduced the number of out-of-school children by about 0.5 million, achieving an 80 percent completion rate. 49 c) Niger: Agricultural Training Center Model Niger Sites d’Apprentissage Agricole provides an alternative pathway for out-of-school adolescents to improve Niger’s skills development system by initiating, among other things, specific short training programs covering different sectors for out-of-school adolescents. These initiatives include the expansion of agricultural training centers to cover various priority sub-sectors of agriculture. These training programs are supported by the Niger Skills Development for Growth Project financed by the World Bank, for an implementation period of 2019-2024. The program consists of a dual apprenticeship initiative focusing on various rural agriculture-related fields, delivered by dedicated training entities, targeting youth ages 17–30 through a four-month formal training. The main objective of the program is to enable out-of-school adolescents to acquire basic technical skills in agriculture-related fields. The rural apprenticeship program is developed in partnership with local authorities and farmers’ organizations to respond to the skills needs and specificities of the targeted regions. This includes agricultural production, livestock and fishery, and related activities such as processing of agricultural products, maintenance, and repair of equipment, irrigation and water management techniques, motor pumps, solar panels, and craftsmanship. Agricultural apprenticeship sites are strategically located in regions with high agricultural potential, and land having access to water provided by local authorities. The program adopts a training delivery model that uses integrated sites for agriculture training, piloted by Swiss Contact. The formal technical training is preceded by literacy courses. The training is delivered by endogenous trainers, followed by personalized and tailored practical exercises for a duration dependent on the crops to be produced on family farms. The unit cost of a training center is relatively affordable at US$300,000, with 85 percent for the center construction and 15 percent for equipment. US$600 is granted as a seed fund for selected youth. d) Zambia and other Countries: Use of Education Technology to Support OOSCA The use of education technology is widely considered as a means of enabling more individuals to access impactful and continuous education, both within and outside the education system. This is attributed to its potential to deliver education over distance and at scale, and because it can be personalized to individual needs. As such, it presents a range of opportunities to support OOSCA in a cost-effective and targeted manner. Other experiences also provide training to develop digital skills for OOSCA and enable them either to start businesses, get jobs, or drive development in their communities. The potential of education technology solutions can include high-tech digital technologies, which generally require internet access, as well as low-tech modalities such as radio and television. No-tech solutions are also an important and viable option, considering access to electricity and connectivity remains limited in extremely remote areas. Equity, inclusion, and safety are incredibly important to consider when looking at possible options for the use of education technology options, and it is important to recognize that the realities of the digital divide must be considered, as technology can exacerbate existing inequities. Interventions that use education technology must be tailored to the context in which they are used, recognizing the specific needs that they are intended to address, while also balancing high, low, and no- tech modalities, as appropriate. 50 Zambia: Use of Interactive Radio Instruction. The Taonga Market Interactive Radio Instruction program targets Zambia’s out-of-school orphan population. The program aimed to support out-of-school youth by providing them with radio-based learning content to enable them to re-enter school. The project began by establishing 20 radio learning centers that later grew to 1,000 centers staffed by community volunteers to provide education to out-of-school children and to offer psychosocial support for orphans, vulnerable children, and their caregivers. Community volunteers function as mentors and guide children through the daily broadcast lessons with the help of a guidebook. The learners and mentors assemble at a central location which varies from day to day and listen to lessons together on a shared device. Taonga Market’s success in supporting out-of-school children led the ministry to adopt the program in government schools as well. Since its implementation in the early 2000s, the program continues to provide a valuable case for utilizing interactive radio instruction to support out-of-school children, and it can inform programs that are more appropriate for current times. Uganda, Rwanda, and Kenya: Life Skills Training Bootcamps and Skills Platform. Educate! tackles youth unemployment by partnering with youth, schools, and governments to design and deliver solutions that equip young people with the skills to attain further education, overcome gender inequities, start businesses, get jobs, and drive development in their communities. Educate! has three delivery channels: school, education systems, and out-of-school youth solutions. For out-of-school youth, Educate! offers skill-based boot camps in Uganda and Kenya to equip out-of-school youth with the skills to successfully transition to employment. Additionally, Educate! is currently piloting boot camps focused on out-of- school girls. The overarching goal of the vertical of work focusing on out-of-school youth is to enhance and build alternative employment pathways that align with strategic sectors and informal economy business models. Educate! Also launched an online skill platform, NawiriPro, designed to provide skill development that aligns with the needs of informal sector businesses. The platform is accessible via mobile phones. The pilot project focused on Nairobi's motorbike couriers, a major growth sector in Kenya's informal economy. External evaluations revealed that participants demonstrated large and durable shifts in skills, as well as improvements in educational and gender-related outcomes. When focusing particularly on girls, the following results emerged: a 25 percent increase in university enrollment for women; 21 percent less likelihood of having a child; an 8 percent decrease in inter-partner violence for women; 244 percent income increase from a base of US$32.43 in the comparison group; 113 percent more likely to be employed from a base of 9 percent in the comparison group; and 91 percent more likely to own a business from a base of 15 percent in the comparison group. In partnership with the Governments of Uganda, Rwanda, and Kenya, Educate! impacted over 46,000 youth in and out of school, reaching over 470,000 learners in 2019. The estimated cost per Educate! scholar per year is US$100, estimated to decrease to US$63. Sierra Leone: Supplemental support for skills training for girls. Every Adolescent Girl Empowered and Resilient (EAGER) Project is an FCDO-funded leave no adolescent girl behind. International Rescue Committee, in partnership with Concern Worldwide, Restless Development, and BBC Media Action implements the project in ten districts across Sierra Leone. 51 The project includes a transition phase designed to encourage graduates to use the various skills developed through the program. During this phase, the project provides graduates with additional support such as an empowerment package, as well as a conditional cash grant to pursue their financial goals and practice the skills they learned in their financial literacy sessions. The project produces weekly girl-centered radio programs and broadcasts them on national and local radio stations to build support for girls across the wider population. Over two successive cohorts of girls, the project has worked directly with 28,000 out-of-school adolescent girls across Sierra Leone. According to the mid-line evaluation report, average literacy scores increased by 1.2 standard deviations (SD). Girls ages 15 or 16 showed an average literacy score improvement of 47.4 compared to 19.8 at baseline, and numeracy scores and life skills scores both increased by 0.98 SD. The end-line evaluation revealed that 91.91 percent of the girls who completed the learning sessions went on to the empowerment plans. Additionally, 87.8 percent of caregivers who listened to the radio show agreed that it helped them understand girls’ issues better, with 48 percent of other radio listeners concurring. Assuming the program reaches fifty girls per community, the total implementation cost for the basic delivery model is just under £2 million, or £431 per girl. Table 4.5.1. Overview of Selected International Programs Supporting OOSCA Relevant to Malawi Diversified Service Targets Females Malawi OOSCA Labor Market Relevance to Results-Based Covers 15-19 Covers 10-14 Focus Area Financing challenge Providers Innovative use of ICT Alternative Pathways Back into the Formal Education System Ghana: Results-based financing to increase X X X X access through diverse service providers Bangladesh: Improved skills training and X X X X X second chance programs to support OOSCA Skills Training Programs Linked to the Labor Market Niger: Agricultural Training Center Model X X X X Zambia: Use of Interactive Radio Instruction X X X (Taonga Market Interactive Radio Instruction) Uganda, Rwanda, and Kenya: Life Skills X X X X X Training Bootcamps and Skills Platform (Educate!) Sierra Leone: Supplemental support for X X X X X X skills training for girls (Every Adolescent Girl Empowered and Resilient - EAGER) 52 5.6. Key Findings on Policies and Programs Supporting OOSCA from Malawi and Internationally The following section summarizes key findings from the implementation of government policies and ongoing development partner efforts to address the challenge of OOSCA. It also includes lessons from international experiences. National Policies of Malawi • The promotion and readmission policies offer potential avenues to address the challenge of repetition and dropout. • The absence of a formal evaluation of the promotion and readmission policies makes it difficult to ascertain implementation progress and impact. Ongoing Initiatives Supporting Formal Education and TEVET in Malawi • Development partners, including the World Bank, Global Partnership for Education, FCDO, USAID, and EU, are implementing projects that support government priorities in primary and secondary education. • A key focus of these interventions in primary education is to ensure equitable learning opportunities through cost-effective models, which, if sustained and institutionalized, can improve access to quality learning and reduce the number of OOSCA. • The key focus of these interventions in secondary education is to improve access to quality learning and teaching in targeted poorly resourced schools. • The World Bank, EU, GIZ, Norway, and up until recently, AfDB, are implementing projects supporting government priorities in formal and informal TEVET. Alternative Pathways: Second-Chance Programs for OOSCA in Malawi • Programs supporting OOSCA in Malawi have limited coverage in terms of size and scope, which impacts their ability to reduce the pool of OOSCA. • Large dropout rates from second-chance interventions have compromised the effectiveness of interventions. • The limited analysis and evaluation of OOSCA programs and the lack of tracer studies affect the relevance of interventions. International Experience in Supporting OOSCA • The use of education technology in its various forms has the potential to increase coverage and ensure continued learning in times of emergencies and school closures. • Programs tailored to specific locations and economic activities are more effective. • The autonomy of service providers in selecting context-specific interventions can improve the relevance of programs in their localities. • Performance-based financing has higher prospects of attaining positive results and achieving policy and program objectives. • A program, as opposed to a project approach, has better chances of increasing coverage and absorbing more OOSCAs. 53 6. Recommendations To address the OOSCA challenge, Malawi needs to ensure access to quality formal education and improve second-chance learning and skills opportunities for OOSCA. The paper proposes three sets of recommendations. The first set constitutes a set of policy actions and ongoing programs designed to ensure children learn and complete secondary education through the implementation and strengthening of relevant policies and strategies, as outlined in the NESIP. The second set of recommendations focuses on alternative pathways and second-chance programs that allow secondary school-age dropouts ages 10– 14 to reenroll in the formal education system while building on existing programs, and lessons from international experience. The third set of recommendations consists of skills training programs linked to labor market demand for OOSCA ages 15–19 through targeted programs that address specific needs of the out-of-school population and local labor market demand. The table below provides a sequence of recommendations to facilitate implementation, given prevailing resource constraints. Table 5.1: Key Recommendations to Support OOSCA Key Recommendations Short Medium Long Term Term Term Policies to help OOSCA learn and complete secondary education: Effectively implement the relevant policies and strategies stipulated in the NESIP, building on ongoing programs. a. Expand secondary education access: Finalize the preparation of X and implement strategic policy reforms supported through the World Bank-financed Equity through the Quality and Learning at Secondary–EQUALS–project and other development partner projects, including EU Improving Secondary Education in Malawi II project, and USAID Secondary Education Expansion for Development Project. Key interventions to include: • Construction of additional secondary schools and recruiting qualified teachers. • Use of a cost-effective classroom expansion model. • Secondary School Expansion Strategy b. Assess and implement promotion and readmission policy which X includes guidance on continuous assessments and remediation to improve learner performance and progression from primary to secondary education. c. Develop an early warning system and support targeted X remediation to identify students at risk of dropping out of school and provide targeted support. The system could build on EMIS data and predefined criteria and profiles of students at risk of dropping out. d. Provide geographically targeted and gender-specific interventions X to reduce dropout including support to the work of mother groups and local communities to reduce pregnancies and early marriages; 54 Key Recommendations Short Medium Long Term Term Term help prevent SRGBV; ensure that those who dropped out are readmitted to school and complete their education. e. Reduce hidden costs of education: • Review the pros and cons of implementing government X requirements on school uniforms and devise other ways to reduce the costs of education including options to reduce the burden of books purchase. • Expand support in the form of bursaries and cash transfers to X those in greatest need. f. Review the vocational curricula at primary and secondary X education levels to promote the technological literacy of children and adolescents for their participation in a manufacturing and industry-based economy. g. Expand early childhood development programs including digitized X options to increase access to pre-primary, a key building block of foundational learning and a key determinant of learning in lower primary. Alternative Pathways Back into the Formal Education System for the 10–14-year-olds OOSCA and secondary education level adolescents: Provide alternative and second chance programs for students to re-enroll into the formal education system, building on currently available programs and using Lessons from international experience. a. Review and redesign the CBE programs to define their targeting X and make them relevant to tackling the causes of high dropout building on lessons learned within the current Malawi CBE program and best practices from international experience including digitized options. b. Review, standardize, and expand Open Secondary schools to X provide quality education to out-of-school children and adolescents including the provision of equitable digitized modalities. Skills training programs linked to labor-market demand for the 15–19-year-old OOSCA: Provide skills training program options that address, in a targeted fashion, specific needs of the out-of-school population considering labor market demand. a. Invest in skills development programs through existing TEVET X programs (Informal) by capacity building the existing skills development centers and colleges in terms of equipment and staff capacity. Prioritise demand-driven-labor market-linked skills development in priority economic sectors of the country with a localized geographical focus. b. Incorporate a component of literacy and numeracy foundation X skills in all interventions for the OOSCA. Considering that in the 15- 19 age bracket, 86 percent have no education, while 10 percent have completed primary education. 55 Key Recommendations Short Medium Long Term Term Term c. Implement geographically targeted skills development activities X with gender-specific interventions. Including incorporating lessons from girls’ specific interventions on skills development like TEAM Girl and Educate! among others. And explore the use of low-tech and technology solutions and digital skills development. d. Explore the use of master craft persons in increasing access to X TEVET, particularly focusing on OOSCA using facilities in CSDCs, CTCs, and technical secondary schools. 56 1 World Bank Group. 2021. Country Private Sector Diagnostic: Creating Markets In Malawi. The Road to Recovery: Turning Crisis into Economic Opportunity. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. 2 Malawi Fifth Integrated Household Survey 2019-2020. 3 Caruso, German Daniel; Cardona Sosa, Lina Marcela. Malawi Poverty Assessment: Poverty Persistence in Malawi - Climate Shocks, Low Agricultural Productivity, and Slow Structural Transformation (English). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. Available from: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099920006302215250/P174948072f3880690afb70c2097 3fe214d 4 Caruso and Cardona Sosa, 2022. 5 As of 2017, ILO estimated job growth at 1.5 percent per annum. Source: Hettinger, Patrick Shawn. Malawi Economic Monitor: Strengthening Human Capital Through Nutrition (English). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. Available from: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/403401576093803229/Malawi-Economic-Monitor- Strengthening-Human-Capital-Through-Nutrition. 6 The Malawi 2063 Vision aims to transform Malawi into a wealthy, self-reliant, industrialized upper- middle-income country. It is anchored on three key pillars: a) agriculture productivity and commercialization; b) industrialization, and urbanization with a focus on seven enablers including mindset change, effective governance system, public sector performance, private sector dynamism, human capital development, economic infrastructure, and c) environmental sustainability with attention to the need to ensure a youth-centric and inclusive vision of development. Malawi Implementation Plan (MIP-1) is a 10-year implementation plan aimed at operationalizing the first years of Vision 2063 as well as facilitating Malawi’s progress toward the achievement of the 2030 Global Agenda for Sustainable Development. 7 Malawi Vision 2063, National Planning Commission, 2020. 8 Camilletti, E. and Banati, P., 2018. Making Strategic Investments in Adolescent Wellbeing. Handbook of Adolescent Development Research and Its Impacts on Global Policy; Lasford, JE, Banati, P., Eds, pp.299- 318.; World Bank. 2006. World Development Report 2007: Development and the Next Generation. World Bank. Washington DC. 9 Comparable Estimates of Returns to Education for the World. Jobs Flagship presentation. World Bank. October 20, 2022. 10 University of Malawi Chancellor College. The Rate of Return on Education in Malawi. Department of Economics, 2009. 11 Ibid. 12 Malawi Third IHS 2011; Malawi Fifth IHS 2019. 13 Most of the analysis from administrative lens are based on the Annual Schools Census data collected annually from schools relevant for the scope of this policy note. 14 UIS and UNICEF (United Nations Children’s Fund), 2015. Global Out-of-School Children Initiative Operational Manual. Available from: https://uis.unesco.org/sites/default/files/documents/global-out- of-school-initiative-operational-manual-2015-en_0.pdf. 15 UIS and UNICEF, (2015). 16 The government plays the leading role in implementing programs in all these education sub-sectors. 57 The MoE is responsible for primary, secondary, teacher, and higher education as well as Complementary Basic Education. The Ministry of Gender, Community Development and Social Welfare is responsible for Early Childhood Development and Adult Literacy. The Ministry of Youth and Sports is responsible for Out of School Youth, and the MoL is responsible for Technical, Entrepreneurial, and Vocational Education and Training. 17 Annual Schools Census, 2022. 18 EMIS, 2022. 19 Salman and Ravinder, 2021. 20 Malawi Longitudinal Schools Survey baseline, 2016. 21 These figures include the majority of ongoing International Development Association and Global Partnership for Education investments. 22 World Bank, 2021. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=MW. 23 UNESCO. US$ 2017 PPP. 24 Malawi Public Expenditure Review 2020: Strengthening Expenditure for Human Capital. 25 Asim, Bashir, and Casley Gera. 2023 (forthcoming). “Learning loss as a result of COVID-19: Dynamic analysis from Malawi.” World Bank. 26 PREPARE, Center for Global Development (CGD) 2022 Part 6 Country Study. 27 Kidman et al. (2022). 28 Kadzamira et al. 2021, as cited in Kidman et al. 2022. 29 Government of Malawi. 2021. Malawi COVID-19 High-Frequency Phone Survey Rounds 1–4 Report. 30 Given the rarity of finding some ages in primary schools, the age structure in primary is presented up to 17, with the rest aggregated under 17+. In secondary, the lower ages are aggregated under ‘12 and below’. This report assumes that the learners in these aggregated ages are too few to affect the credibility of the estimates and thus uses them to represent age groups 10-14 and 15-19 in respective levels of education. 31 Estimates from the Fifth IHS 2019/2020. 32 Devlin, K. 2013. Reducing Youth Unemployment in Sub-Saharan Africa. https://www.prb.org/resources/reducing-youth-unemployment-in-sub-saharan-africa/. 33 Internet in Malawi, Marcin Frackiewicz in TS2 Space; 23 February 2023 - https://ts2.space/en/internet- in-malawi/. 34 Global Digital Overview: Malawi: https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2022-malawi?rq=Malawi. 35 According to UIS, digital/ICT skills assess whether persons ages 15–24 have skills in computing, ranging from basic to advanced functions, copying and moving files or folders in a computer; using copy and paste tools to duplicate or move information within a document; sending emails with attachments; using basic formulas in spreadsheets; connecting and installing new devices like printers and modems; finding, downloading, installing, and configuring software in a computer; creating electronic presentations; transferring files between a computer and other devices; and writing a computer program using a specialized programming language. 36 Comparison is made between children ages 10–19 in Malawi and 6–18 in the comparator countries. 37 NEET rates are above 40 percent for youth ages 20–24 years in East and Southern Africa (Botswana, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa, and Uganda). 38 Who Never Attended School and Who Dropped Out: JRSP, Vol 57, No3 (July-Sept 2020). 58 39 The 10–14 age group can be aligned to the official primary going age of 6 to 13, while the 14–19 age group can be aligned to the official secondary going age of 14–17 for purposes of analysis. 40 Farzana Yousaf. Who Never Attended School and Who Dropped Out: A Comparative Study of the Voices? JRSP, Vol 57, No3 (July-Sept 2020). 41 These shelters were constructed under the GPE-funded Malawi Education School Improvement Program in primary schools. 42 EMIS 2022 43 Ibid. 44 Data provided by Malawi College of Distance Education. 45 Ibid. 46 EMIS 2022. 47 Inoue, K., E. di Gropello, Y. S. Taylor, and J. Gresham. 2015. Out-of-School Youth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Policy Perspective. Directions in Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 48 EMIS 2022. 49 NESIP 2020–2030. 50 Samati, 2017. 51 Malongo and Mwale, 2019. 52 Idem. 53 EMIS 2022 54 Including employees in short-term absence from work due to illness, leave or vacation. 55 ILO (2018) Measuring employment in labour force surveys: Main findings from the ILO LFS pilot studies. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/--- stat/documents/publication/wcms_635732.pdf. 56 Understanding child labour and youth employment in Malawi / International Labour Office, Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work Branch (FUNDAMENTALS), - Geneva: ILO, 2018. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_norm/--- ipec/documents/publication/wcms_651037.pdf 57 Monobe, R. J., and Baloyi, K. 2012. "An Investigation into Some of the Major Causes of Truancy in the Venda Technical College in the Limpopo Province." US-China Education Review A (1): 84–89. 58 Bajon, R. H. 2022. “Causes, Effects and Remedies of Truancy among Secondary School Students in Jalingo, Taraba State, Nigeria.” JEREDA Journal 3 (2). 59 EMIS 2022. 60 Monobe, R. J., and K. Baloyi. 2012. “An Investigation into Some of the Major Causes of Truancy in the Venda Technical College in the Limpopo Province.” US-China Education Review A (1): 84–89. 61 Halliday, K. E., Witek-McManus, S. S., Opondo, C., Mtali, A., Allen, E., Bauleni, A., Ndau, S., Phondiwa, E., Ali, D., Kachigunda, V., Sande, J. H., Jawati, M., Verney, A., Chimuna, T., Melody, D., Moestue, H., Roschnik, N., Brooker, S. J., and Mathanga, D. P. 2014. "Impact of School-Based Malaria Case Management on School Attendance, Health and Education Outcomes: A Cluster Randomized Trial in Southern Malawi." BMJ Global Health 5 (1): e001666. 62 Nankabirwa, J., Brooker, S. J., Clarke, S. E., Fernando, D., Gitonga, C. W., Schellenberg, D., and Greenwood, B. 2014. "Malaria in School-Age Children in Africa: An Increasingly Important Challenge." Tropical Medicine & International Health 19 (11): 1294–309. 59 63 Nkhalamba, L., S. Rylance, A. S. Muula, K. Mortimer, and F. Limbani. 2021. “Task-Shifting to Improve Asthma Education for Malawian Children: A Qualitative Analysis.” Human Resources for Health 19 (28). 64 Ibid. 65 Carter, J. A., Neville, B. G. R., White, S., Ross, A. J., Otieno, G., Mturi, N., Musumba, C., and Newton, C. R. J. 2004. "Increased Prevalence of Epilepsy Associated with Severe Falciparum Malaria in Children." Epilepsia 45 (8): 978–81. 66 Tataryn, M., Polack, S., Chokotho, L., Mulwafu, W., Kayange, P., Banks, L. M., Noe, C., Lavy, C., and Kupe, H. 2017. "Childhood Disability in Malawi: A Population-Based Assessment Using the Key Informant Method." BMC Pediatrics. 67 Ibid. 68 Ibid. 69 Ibid. 70 EMIS 2022 71 Sabates, R., Akyeampong, K., Westbrook, J., and Hunt, F. 2010. "School Drop Out: Patterns, Causes, Changes and Policies." [UNESCO]. Available at: https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000190771; Schuchart, C., and Schimke, B. 2021. "Age and Social Background as Predictors of Dropout in Second Chance Education in Germany." Adult Education Quarterly 72 (3). Available at: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/07417136211046960 72 Assessment and Certification Unit, 2023. Assessment and Certification in Malawi TEVET. Paper presented at the 2023 National TEVET Conference. Held in Lilongwe from 20th to 21st April 2023. Accessed from: https://tevetamw.com/download/national-tevet-conference-presentations/ 73 World Bank. 2006. World Development Report 2007: Development and the Next Generation. Washington, DC: World Bank. 74 Ngware, M. W., Boukary, H., Wekulo, P., Mutisya, M., Zikani, K., Otieno, C. M. A., and Riechi, A. R. O. 2018. "Alternative Education and Return Pathways for Out-of-School Youth in Sub-Saharan Africa." A Background Paper for the Secondary Education in Africa: Preparing Youth for the Future of Work. Nairobi: African Population and Health Research Center, Master Card Foundation. 75 Ibid. 76 Rajasekaran, Subhashini, and Joel Reyes. 2019. Back to School: Pathways for Reengagement of Out-of- School Youth in Education. International Development in Focus. Washington, DC: World Bank. 77 Promotion Policy for Malawi Schools 2018. 78 Revised readmission policy: 2018. 79 Previously, the CBE content was intensively taught over three years. The nature of traditional skills programs makes it difficult to integrate skills into the CBE curriculum. Incorporating technological literacy into the curriculum could also enhance the learning experience. 80 Moleni, M. C. M., and Nampota, D. C. 2006. "Complementary Basic Education in Malawi: Baseline Survey September 2006." 81 Malcolm, A. 2009. “Second Chances: A Study of Rural Malawian Youth in a Complementary Basic Education Program.” 82 Starting the academic year 2023/24, the MoE plans to roll out CBE across all 32 education districts. 83 Times News, March 16, 2023. 60 84 Theatre for a Change; CGA Technologies; Supreme; CUMO Microfinance Limited; Malawi MoE. 85 Transformational Empowerment of Adolescent Marginalized Girls in Malawi - Midline Evaluation Report August 2022. 86 Transformational Empowerment of Adolescent Marginalized Girls in Malawi, Ibid. 87 Transformational Empowerment of Adolescent Marginalized Girls in Malawi, Ibid. 88 Data provided by the Malawi College of Distance Education. 89 Project Appraisal Document for the Additional Financing and Restructuring of the Ghana Accountability for Learning Outcomes Project (GALLOP) July 7, 2020. 90 GALLOP Implementation status and results report - 03-Mar-2023. 91 Girls’ outcomes are valued at 20 percent higher than those for boys to encourage social investors and service providers to enroll more girls in the project. 61