Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00006014 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT Credit Number 5938-IN ON A CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF US$235 MILLION TO India FOR THE Bihar Rural Roads Project June 22, 2024 Transport Global Practice South Asia Region CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective December 31, 2023) Currency Unit = Indian Rupee (Rs.) Rs. 83.19 = US$1 FISCAL YEAR April 1 – March 31 Regional Vice President: Martin Raiser Country Director: Auguste Tano Kouame Regional Director: Pankaj Gupta Practice Manager: Jung Eun Oh Task Team Leader(s): N. S. Srinivas ICR Main Contributor: Ashini Samarasinghe ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AI Artificial Intelligence AMP Asset Management Plan AMS Asset Management System BRRDA Bihar Rural Road Development Agency BRRP Bihar Rural Roads Project CPF Country Partnership Framework DPR Detailed Project Reports E&S Environmental and Social ECoPs Environmental Codes of Practices EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return EMF Environmental Management Framework EOCC Economic Opportunity Cost of Capital FM Financial Management GoB Government of Bihar GoI Government of India GTSNY Grameen Tola Sampark Nischaya Yojana HEIS Hands-on Expanded Implementation Support IDA International Development Association IFR Interim Financial Reports MMGSY Mukhya Mantri Gram Sampark Yojana MSME Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises MTR Mid-Term Review NPV Net Present Value OMMAS Online Management, Monitoring and Accounting System OPBMC Output and Performance-Based Maintenance Contracts PDO Project Development Objective PIU Project Implementation Unit PMC Project Management Consultant PMGSY Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana PMU Project Management Unit RSMP Road Sector Modernization Plan RWD Rural Works Department SMF Social Management Framework TA Technical Assistance VF Vulnerability Framework VOC Vehicle Operating Cost WBG World Bank Group TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET .......................................................................................................................... 1 I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 6 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL .........................................................................................................6 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION .............................................................. 10 II. OUTCOME .................................................................................................................... 12 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ............................................................................................................ 12 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ...................................................................................... 13 C. EFFICIENCY ........................................................................................................................... 18 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING .................................................................... 19 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) ............................................................................ 19 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 20 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ................................................................................... 20 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION ............................................................................. 21 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 22 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ............................................................ 22 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE ..................................................... 24 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ........................................................................................................... 25 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ....................................................................................... 27 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................. 27 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 29 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ......................... 39 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 41 ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ........................................................................................... 42 ANNEX 5. BORROWER’S COMMENTS ................................................................................... 47 ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS .................................................................................. 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name P155522 Bihar Rural Roads Project Country Financing Instrument India Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency India Rural Works Department, Bihar Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The PDO is to improve rural road connectivity in project districts, and enhance management of rural roads in Bihar. Page 1 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) FINANCING Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing 235,000,000 153,000,000 147,972,220 IDA-59380 Total 235,000,000 153,000,000 147,972,220 Non-World Bank Financing 0 0 0 Borrower/Recipient 100,000,000 65,600,000 65,600,000 Total 100,000,000 65,600,000 65,600,000 Total Project Cost 335,000,000 218,600,000 213,572,220 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing 21-Dec-2016 31-Aug-2017 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2023 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 22-Sep-2020 66.99 Cancellation of Financing Reallocation between Disbursement Categories 23-Sep-2020 66.99 21-Mar-2022 101.26 Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Cancellation of Financing Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Legal Covenants 21-Dec-2022 132.00 Change in Loan Closing Date(s) 27-Jun-2023 136.11 Change in Loan Closing Date(s) 26-Dec-2023 146.01 Cancellation of Financing Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Page 2 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Modest RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 26-Apr-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0 02 22-Nov-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 6.21 03 22-May-2018 Satisfactory Satisfactory 38.77 04 10-Dec-2018 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 49.72 05 08-Jun-2019 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 57.75 06 10-Sep-2019 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 58.95 Moderately 07 27-Mar-2020 Moderately Unsatisfactory 62.15 Unsatisfactory Moderately 08 09-Jun-2020 Moderately Unsatisfactory 64.18 Unsatisfactory Moderately 09 02-Dec-2020 Moderately Unsatisfactory 69.06 Unsatisfactory Moderately 10 07-Oct-2021 Moderately Unsatisfactory 90.91 Unsatisfactory Moderately 11 19-Apr-2022 Moderately Unsatisfactory 101.26 Unsatisfactory 12 01-Dec-2022 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 132.00 13 28-Jul-2023 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 140.93 14 22-Dec-2023 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 146.01 Page 3 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) SECTORS AND THEMES Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%) Transportation 100 Public Administration - Transportation 5 Rural and Inter-Urban Roads 95 Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Economic Policy 95 Economic Growth and Planning 95 Green Growth 95 Private Sector Development 95 Jobs 95 Job Creation 95 Human Development and Gender 95 Gender 95 Urban and Rural Development 100 Rural Development 100 Rural Infrastructure and service delivery 100 5 Road Safety 5 Disaster Risk Management 45 Disaster Risk Reduction 45 Environment and Natural Resource Management 45 Climate change 45 Adaptation 45 Page 4 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Annette Dixon Martin Raiser Country Director: Junaid Kamal Ahmad Auguste Tano Kouame Director: Pierre A. Guislain Pankaj Gupta Practice Manager: Karla Gonzalez Carvajal Jung Eun Oh Task Team Leader(s): Ashok Kumar N. S. Srinivas Deegoda Gamage Ashini ICR Contributing Author: Iwanthik Samarasinghe Page 5 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Context 1. At appraisal, Bihar was one of the faster growing low-income states in India, with 34 percent of its population living below the poverty line compared to a national average of 22 percent. About 90 percent of its population of 104 million was rural and about 76 percent of the population in north Bihar was subject to the recurring threat of floods. Bihar’s potential for growth in agriculture and agro‐based industries, tourism, handicrafts, and cottage industries was underutilized due to inadequate road infrastructure and market linkages. 2. About 60 percent of Bihar’s rural road network was unpaved and had several deficiencies, such as missing links, dilapidated bridges or absence of bridges, inadequate geometry, poor drainage, weak pavements, and missing road safety measures. The network had also suffered severe damages due to floods, lack of maintenance, inadequate quality of initial construction, and overloading in some parts of the state. Inefficient sector management was also identified as a key challenge. “Road connectivity to each habitation”, with a goal of bringing all parts of the state within five hours of travel time from the state capital, Patna, was among Government of Bihar’s (GoB’s) top seven priorities in 2016. 3. As part of GoB’s priority of “Road connectivity to each habitation”, about 60,000 km of rural roads (50 percent of the total rural road network in the state) were constructed in the preceding decade leading to 2016, providing road access to 51 percent of its habitations. Several country and state level road development programs were in place to rehabilitate the remaining road network and provide access to all habitations in the state. The key programs were: (i) Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY), the Government of India (GOI) funded program to provide all‐weather road access to all habitations with a population above 500; (ii) Mukhya Mantri Gram Sampark Yojana (MMGSY), the GoB funded program to provide road connectivity to habitations with population in the 250‐499 range, which were not covered under PMGSY; and (iii) Grameen Tola Sampark Nischaya Yojana (GTSNY), to connect habitations with a population below 250. The GoB’s rural roads program was organized around three key priorities: a. Priority One: All‐weather-road access to the remaining 49 percent habitations through the PMGSY and MMGSY. The World Bank was engaged with PMGSY since its inception, through dialogue, technical assistance (TA), and a series of lending operations. b. Priority Two: Preserving existing road assets and upgrading them to acceptable standards. The road sector worked with a traditional focus on building and rehabilitating roads, which resulted in insufficient funds being directed for maintenance. Lack of planning and coordination with stakeholders in the sector which led to top-down fund allocation as opposed to allocations based on actual rehabilitation and maintenance needs to the road network, lack of an asset information database to support network-wide prioritization of rehabilitation and maintenance investments, and limited capacity within Rural Works Department (RWD) and contracting industry were other key issues that limited adequate asset management in the road sector. In this context, the RWD adopted Page 6 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) a maintenance policy, under which performance-based maintenance contracts were introduced on about 4,600 km of roads. The Bank supported RWD to prepare an Asset Management Plan (AMP) to introduce a new road asset management approach to deliver consumer-based priorities, such as a satisfactory level of riding quality and safety, at least cost over the long run. c. Priority Three: Improved institutional effectiveness. Improve the pace and quality of delivery of RWD’s road programs by improving the quality of engineering designs and asset management, value for money, procurement performance, and by minimizing time and cost overruns. RWD required enhancement to its traditional way of doing business, to improve its performance and cope with the latest demands of both construction and maintenance. RWD’s business procedures were primarily suited for small works and had not kept pace with the demands, latest developments and innovations in the rural road sector. To this end, a Road Sector Modernization Plan (RSMP) was adopted by the RWD, which covered, inter alia, strengthening the Road Sector Policy Framework, streamlining and modernizing key business processes, climate resilient and cost‐effective engineering designs, and rural road safety. 4. Rationale for the project and for World Bank support. This Project proposed to support the MMGSY program by funding about eight percent of its planned road works and complementing it with knowledge support to enhance the management of rural roads in Bihar. Bank support through the Project was expected to: (i) help enhance the quality of delivery of MMGSY by introducing cost‐effective designs, road safety engineering measures, improved quality of existing infrastructure, and better contract management practices to avoid time and cost‐over‐runs; and (ii) help gradually transform RWD into a modern and high performing road agency through knowledge support. The Bank was already engaged in the state’s road development program1, particularly through its long-standing engagement in PMGSY. The Project design was informed by the results and findings from these engagements and studies, for example, use of existing systems and procedure which were used under PMGSY, use of the PMGSY bid document, five-year mandatory maintenance inbuilt in construction contracts, and the use of the three-tier quality assurance mechanism. The Project provided an opportunity to make use of the analytical base and understanding of the sector derived from the Bank’s ongoing engagement in Bihar and enable the transfer of knowledge and coordination across different road programs in the state. 5. Alignment with Higher Level Objectives. The Project was aligned with the World Bank Group’s (WBG’s) goal of reducing poverty and promoting shared prosperity, and with WBG’s India Country Partnership Strategy (2013‐2017) priority of supporting low‐income states through three themes: integration, transformation, and inclusion. The Project was expected to better integrate the rural population, businesses, and industries in Bihar’s remote and poorer districts with the national and state economy through better transport connectivity, as well as through improved integration with the strategic transport corridors passing through Bihar. It envisioned a transformational impact on rural poverty through the impact of improved road access on agricultural productivity, higher non‐farm employment opportunities, and increased rural wages. The Project was also in line with GoI’s development priorities at the time, which emphasized the development of rural roads to facilitate inclusive growth, economic development, and access to markets. Theory of Change (Results Chain) 1 Theseengagements included the road construction industry study, road safety action plan, road sector vision, process improvement studies for design and contract management, road asset database for RWD under the U.K. Department for International Development Trust Fund support, and the Human Resources Professional Development Strategy, in addition to a detailed assessment of PMGSY, AMP, and environmentally optimized road designs for rural roads. Page 7 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) Figure 1. Theory of Change Assumptions • Political commitment to implement institutional reforms under Component 2 Changes made through Restructuring 2 • Availability of adequate resources for infrastructure development Orange Dropped activities BLUE New activities PURPLE Revised activities Page 8 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 6. The PDO, as stated in the Financing Agreement, was to improve Rural Roads connectivity in Project Districts, and enhance management of Rural Roads in Bihar. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 7. The achievement of the PDO was expected to be measured by the following outcome indicators: a. Increased road connectivity to habitations (number) b. Roads in good and fair condition as a share of total classified roads (percentage) c. Improved effectiveness of project expenditure ‐ Project roads designed using cost‐effective measures (percentage) d. Improved asset management ‐ Number of districts that have developed and are using asset management system (number) Components 8. At appraisal the Project consisted of two components: a. Component 1: Rural Roads Improvement (Allocation at approval: US$320 million; Actual cost at completion: US$211 million). Construction and improvement of the state core network to improve the road connectivity of target habitations under MMGSY (having a population of 250 - 499 in 2012) in Project districts. It included: • Sub-Component 1.1: Civil works for rural roads. Civil works for about 2,500 km of rural roads, including standalone bridges. The road improvements would incorporate road safety measures and environmentally optimized and climate resilient road designs. • Sub-Component 1.2: Design, implementation, and management support. Supervision, quality monitoring, and preparation of cost-effective and climate resilient designs. • Sub-Component 1.3: Pilots on innovative bridge construction, retrofitting road safety and climate resilience measures in the existing rural road network (identified under 2.1 and 2.3). b. Component 2: Asset Management and Institutional Effectiveness (Allocation at approval: US$15 million; Actual cost at completion: US$3 million). Support the RWD to implement the RSMP through the following: • Sub-Component 2.1: Asset management. Implementation of AMP and development of an Asset Management System (AMS); preparing plans for capital works and maintenance and development of a GIS based road inventory and condition database; enhancing and expanding the use of maintenance contracts for 20 percent of the core network (TA); climate vulnerability assessment Page 9 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) for roads and bridges and development of mitigation plans; and introduction of improved, low- cost, innovative, environment friendly road and bridge designs to withstand flood related risks. • Sub-Component 2.2: Institutional effectiveness. Implementation of the existing Human Resource Professional Development strategy of RWD, which would include training of RWD staff & contractors; procurement of equipment for RWD labs, offices, and training facilities; digitalizing RWD business processes; development of the long-term rural roads strategy; updating technical guidelines and manuals; and identifying measures to make the rural transport service in Bihar more effective. • Sub-Component 2.3: Road safety management. Training RWD staff, the local police and transport departments, designing road safety measures, undertaking road safety audits of priority roads, raising awareness among contractor staff, and development of the road safety module in AMS. B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION 9. The Project was restructured five times, as summarized below: a. Restructuring 1: September 22, 2020 – Cancellation of US$50 million from International Development Association (IDA) financing as part of the overall COVID-19 response strategy to make funds available immediately for pandemic response measures. The remaining funds were expected to be adequate to complete the remaining activities, given the exchange rate gains from the depreciation of the Indian Rupee against the United States Dollar and savings in the cost of civil works. b. Restructuring 2: March 21, 2022 – Cancellation of US$27 million from IDA financing and revisions to the project scope and indicators due to slow progress and low disbursements. The Project faced more than a three-year delay in implementing activities under Component 2 (as discussed in Section III.B) and reported little progress in activities under Sub-Component 1.3. The pandemic, and flash floods which occurred in several districts also contributed to the slow progress in Project activities. The restructuring was carried out to address these issues following the mid-term review (MTR). c. Restructuring 3: December 21, 2022 – Extension of the credit closing date by six months from December 31, 2022, to June 30, 2023, to enable the completion of the remaining works. d. Restructuring 4: June 27, 2023 – Extension of the credit closing date by six months from June 30, 2023, to December 31, 2023, to enable the completion of the remaining works and identification of potential savings for cancellation under the Project. e. Restructuring 5: December 26, 2023 – Cancellation of US$5 million of savings from IDA financing. Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets 10. The PDO has remained unchanged throughout the Project. Revised PDO Indicators 11. The PDO indicators were revised through Restructuring 2 as summarized in Table 2 below. Page 10 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) Table 1. Changes made to the PDO Indicators through Restructuring 2 PDO Indicator at Appraisal Target at Changes made through Rationale for changes Appraisal Restructuring 2 Increased road connectivity 62,000 Number of habitations Reduction in the scope of Component 1.1: to habitations (number) reduced to 61,200 the length of road construction was reduced from 2,500 km to 2,000 km due to time constraints. Improved asset 10 This indicator was The activity to develop an AMS was dropped management ‐ number of dropped from the results at the request of GoB that the AMS is no districts that have framework longer required as a state-wide rural road developed and are using maintenance policy was introduced. asset management system (number) Introduced a new Introduction of a new activity under indicator: Pilot Artificial Component 2.1 to develop an AI System on a Intelligence (AI) based pilot basis to monitor performance at least system in districts within 100 km of project roads. the state (number) with a target of 1 Revised Components 12. The cancellation of US$27 million and lack of sufficient time remaining in the Project due to the significant implementation delays led to the following changes in Project components under Restructuring 2: a. Component 1: Rural Roads Improvement. (i) Allocation for this component was reduced from US$270 million to US$242 million due to the cancellation of IDA funds and the reduction in counterpart funding. (ii) Scope of Sub-Component 1.1 was reduced from 2,500 km to 2,000 km, as it was estimated that only about 2,000 km of roads could be completed by the original credit closing. (iii) Sub- Component 1.3 was dropped due to lack of sufficient time in the Project to complete the original scope. b. Component 2: Asset Management and Institutional Effectiveness. (i) The allocation was reduced from US$15 million to US$3 million due to the cancellation of IDA funds and the reduction in counterpart funding. (ii) The development of an AMS under Sub-Component 2.1. was dropped as an asset management system was not considered to be required because a rural road maintenance policy was in place for all rural roads and was being adopted across the state. (iii) A new activity to develop an AI system on a pilot basis to monitor the performance of roads was introduced under Sub- Component 2.1. to help achieve the PDO. (iv) The scope of the climate vulnerability assessment under Sub-Component 2.1 was reduced from 2,500 km to 500 km due to lack of sufficient time in the Project to complete the original scope. (v) Minor changes were made to the scope of the proposed training under Sub-Component 2.2 (reduction in target audience) due to lack of sufficient time in the Project caused by the delayed start of Component 2. Page 11 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) Other Changes 13. Counterpart funding allocated to the Project was reduced from US$100 million to US$65.6 million over the Project period. Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change 14. The scope of civil works was reduced due to lack of sufficient time remaining in the Project, which partly stemmed from the delays faced during the COVID-19 pandemic and the flash floods. Activities to pilot innovative bridge construction and retrofit road safety and climate resilience measures were dropped from the scope due to insufficient time stemming from slow implementation progress as well as funding limitations following the cancellation of US$50 million under Restructuring 1. The AMS was dropped due to two reasons: (i) a system was deemed to be no longer required given the state’s maintenance policy (Bihar Rural Roads Maintenance Policy 2018) which mandates performance-based maintenance for every road that completes the stipulated five-year routine maintenance period, and (ii) the introduction of an AI system by the state, which collects and digitally stores road condition data and provides a platform to coordinate the rectification of identified defects, was expected to serve a similar purpose of an AMS. Other changes under Component 2 were made due to time constraints given the long implementation delays. These changes did not have a substantial impact on the original Theory of Change. The removal of the key outcome target of introducing an AMS, which was the only substantial change made to Project outcomes, was replaced by a new target to pilot a system which was expected to deliver a similar impact. II. OUTCOME A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating 15. At completion, the PDO is aligned with the priorities identified in the World Bank’s India Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for FY18 – FY222. The PDO directly contributes to the achievement of Objectives 1.1 and 2.3 under Focus Areas 1 and 2 of the CPF: Objective 1.1 – promote more resource-efficient, inclusive, and diversified growth in the rural sector; and Objective 2.3 – improve connectivity and logistics. Objective 2.3 specifically highlights the Bank’s commitment to support climate and disaster resilient roads. The PDO is also consistent with the Bank’s engagement approach of strengthening public sector institutions through increasing their capability and strengthening core government systems. 16. The PDO is also aligned with the development priorities of the GoI. GoI’s Strategy for New India@75 notes that increasing the coverage and quality of roads and highways is critical to enhance connectivity and internal and external trade. It identifies increasing connectivity by expanding the road network, improving road maintenance and safety, skill development in the road sector, and increasing emphasis on research and development as key priorities for the road sector. Furthermore, MMGSY, which the Project supported, was 2 A Performance Learning Review for the current CPF was being carried out at the time of the ICR preparation. Page 12 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) launched in 2013 by GoB with the aim of providing all-weather connectivity to rural habitations with population more than 250. This program was built around the three key priorities as discussed under Section I.A, which involved not only infrastructure improvement, but also improving institutional efficiencies in the road sector. A case study3 carried out on the impacts of this program highlights that the demand for the road improvements under this program has been overwhelming, given the challenges of transportation in Bihar. As such, the PDO remains relevant to the GoB’s priorities in the sector as well. 17. Based on the above analysis, the relevance of the PDO to the current CPF for India and the priorities of the GoI and GoB is rated as High. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome 18. Approach to assessing the achievement of PDOs. The PDO comprises two elements: (i) improve rural road connectivity in Project districts; and (ii) enhance management of roads in Bihar. The first outcome is assessed through the impact of road improvements on the beneficiary communities and the second outcome by the Project’s impact in strengthening RWD’s capacity in managing roads in Bihar. A split rating is applied in the evaluation of project efficacy due to following changes effected under Restructuring 2: (i) reduction of the PDO 1 outcome target for “Increased road connectivity to habitations”; (ii) dropping of the PDO 2 outcome target for “Improved asset management”; (iii) introduction of a new PDO 2 indicator “Pilot AI based system in districts within the state”; and (iv) the 80 percent reduction in financing allocated to Component 2. PDO 1: Improve rural road connectivity in project districts. 19. Key activities envisaged at appraisal were carried out during the Project, except for the reduction in the number of kms of roads improved and the dropping of activities under Sub-component 1.3. The key impacts of these activities are discussed below and the extent of achievement of the original and revised targets of PDO and intermediate level indicators relevant to PDO 1 is provided in Table 2. 20. Improved living standards through better road connectivity. The Project rehabilitated 2200kms of rural roads in Bihar, improving the connectivity of 1196 habitations and directly benefited about 838,240 people, 48 percent of which are women. Public consultations revealed that the roads now provide local farmers improved direct access to markets, which helps them to bypass intermediaries and thereby reduce costs. The improved quality of the road pavements also ensures uninterrupted access to critical social services, such as health care and schools, which was earlier restricted during the rainy season as the roads became either muddy or were damaged. An assessment carried out4 to identify the impacts of the road improvements under the Project highlights that some communities have gained access to all-weather motorable roads for the first time, substantially improving their connectivity and accessibility. The improved roads have increased school attendance of students (of female students in particular) in some areas and have improved access to healthcare facilities due to the availability of different transport modes (e.g., ambulances, private vehicles). The paved roads have further improved accessibility for people with disabilities who can now commute using their 3Case Study on Benefits to Village Connected by the Project Road under MMGSY (RWD) 4Based on interviews of project beneficiaries of selected project roads which included students, farmers, women, RWD officials, school teachers and government officials. Page 13 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) motorized wheelchairs with ease. As most of the Bihar population lives in underdeveloped rural areas and one third of its population is poor, improvement in access to basic services and economic opportunities can contribute to economic development of these areas as well as reduce poverty in the long term. 21. The case study cited earlier on the impact of the GoB’s broader MMGSY program, which the Project supported, further highlights the following benefits of improved road connectivity in the rural communities: reduced travel times to markets, schools and healthcare services; increased enrollment of students in schools (female students in particular); improved transportation of agricultural products with less wastage and shorter time using better transport modes as opposed to walking or using carts; and improved access to bigger agriculture markets. 22. Improved resilience of the road network through better maintenance. All project contracts included provisions for five-year routine maintenance to ensure uninterrupted connectivity. On completion of the five- year routine maintenance period, these roads will then be maintained under the GoB funded performance- based maintenance contracts as per GoB’s Rural Roads Maintenance Policy. This practice, which is supported by a state level policy, would help the long-term sustainability of the road network, as well as to reduce the fiscal impact of road rehabilitation costs to the state in the long run. However, a more systematic approach is required for the prioritization of roads for maintenance based on road condition and other technical criteria, as opposed to a blanket time-based maintenance policy. 23. Achievement of PDO indicators. Road improvements under the Project increased the number of connected habitations to 61,476, achieving 99 percent of the original target and slightly over 100 percent of the revised target. The target of PDO indicator 1.2 “Roads in good and fair condition as a share of total classified roads” was significantly exceeded for the entire state, even though the Project covered only selected districts. As such, this achievement is not entirely attributable to the Project. Table 2. Achievement of Output and Outcome Targets under PDO 1 Revised Actual as Actual Vs Actual Vs Original Indicator Baseline Target of Dec Original revised Target (Restruc 2) 2023 (Percent) (Percent) PDO 1.1 Increased road connectivity to habitations 60,280 62000 61,200 61,476 99.15 100.45 (No.) 1.2 Roads in good and fair condition as a share 40 50 Unchanged 83 166.00 Unchanged of total classified roads (Percent) Intermediate 1.3 Roads constructed, Rural (Km) 0 2,500 2,000 2,200 88.00 110.00 1.4 Improved quality of built Infrastructure ‐ Project roads delivered with satisfactory 0 85 Unchanged 85 100.00 Unchanged quality certified through independent quality reviews (%) 1.5 Direct project beneficiaries (No.) 0 1,200,000 744,499 838,240 69.85 112.59 - Female beneficiaries (Percent) 0 48 Unchanged 48 100.00 Unchanged PDO 2: Enhance management of roads in Bihar. Page 14 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) 24. The original scope of activities for the achievement of PDO 2 was modified during the second restructuring when development of the AMS was dropped, and piloting of the AI maintenance tool was introduced. The key impacts of these activities are discussed below and the extent of the achievement of PDO and intermediate indicators relevant to PDO 2 is provided in Table 3. 25. Introducing asset management practices in RWD. The Project contributed to introducing asset management practices to RWD and promoting its use in road maintenance. The AMP developed under the Project helped RWD identify the levels of service to be maintained for each road asset, the long-term financial plan for the rehabilitation and maintenance of roads, an asset valuation methodology for different road assets, human resource and capacity requirements for asset management, and requirements for an information system. The state funded the development of an AI tool to prioritize routine maintenance in the state’s road sector. The tool enables RWD to capture and digitally record (geo-tag) road conditions and take measures to rectify defects through contractors, using a digitalized process that links the relevant parties in one platform. The pilot inspected 1000 km of roads in Vaishali district and the RWD is planning to expand this system to the entire network. While the tool was expected to serve a similar purpose of an AMS, in practice, it does not provide the full benefits of a comprehensive AMS. It only captures road condition data and does not consider other important criteria required for asset management such as traffic and crash data, connectivity, road structures etc., and does not support prioritizing capital and maintenance expenditure based on a systematic methodology considering such criteria. Furthermore, while the development of the AI tool was included as an activity under the Project with a corresponding PDO indicator, it was not financed by Project funds. Therefore, the tool cannot be attributed as a Project output. 26. Reduced cost of road rehabilitation with innovative pavement methods. The Project introduced two innovative road paving methods to reduce costs: (i) use of waste plastic in flexible pavements; and (ii) use of panel concrete in rigid pavements. These methods, which were used in more than 50 percent of the roads improved under the Project, saved around US$4.8 million (INR40.34 crores or approximately about 2 percent of the total cost) in road rehabilitation costs, and are now also being used in the MMGSY program. 27. Informed resilience management of the road network. A network level climate vulnerability assessment was carried out under the Project for 500 km of rural roads in 10 flood prone districts to identify the climate vulnerability of each road section based on the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of each road to the projected climate hazards for the period 2020-2039. The study provides the RWD with: (i) a good basis to prioritize road improvements / maintenance based on climate vulnerability; and (ii) measures to improve the resilience and adaptation capacity of the road assets. The recommendations of the assessment are yet to be implemented but are being considered by RWD. 28. Informed improvements in integrated transport and logistics service provision. A diagnostic study was carried out to identify key transport and logistics challenges faced by selected micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in Bihar and identify strategies to improve the transport and logistics network for their development. The study identified key barriers in (i) supply chains – such as lack of warehousing facilities, cold storage, poor quality roads, poor packaging; (ii) transport and logistics infrastructure – such as unpaved roads, low road densities in some districts; (iii) logistics services – such as fragmented trucking industry, gaps in skilled manpower, lack of automation; and (iv) policy and regulatory environment – such as lack of a state-wide policy on logistics. The recommendations to address challenges in road infrastructure management include (i) the development and improvement of transport infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and bypasses, and (ii) the Page 15 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) development of rural roads and first / last mile connectivity. The RWD has submitted the report to the Industry Department for consideration of the recommendations to be implemented. 29. Informed road safety management. A Rural Road Safety Action Plan was developed identifying interventions required to improve road safety under the following pillars: (i) Road Safety Management – establishment of a rural road safety cell within RWD, setting up an rural road safety fund under Bihar Road Safety Council, capacity building and public consultations for safer road designs, (ii) Safer Roads – integrating road safety measures in the Detailed Project Report (DPRs), road safety audits at design stage, (iii) Safer Vehicles – safety features for different types of vehicles on rural roads, (iv) Safer Road Users – promoting community participation in identifying road safety issues, and increasing awareness, (v) Post-Crash Care – ensuring prompt emergency response, training for paramedics and first responders. The project also developed Road Safety Audit Checklists for different stages of road works in line with the Rural Road Safety Manual 2016 and the Manual on Road Safety Audit and provided training to DPR consultants on incorporating road safety measures in DPRs. These were complemented by the GoB’s road safety policy, which mandates road safety audits for all roads in the state that are longer than five kms. 30. Improved capacity and knowledge management. 415 RWD staff were trained on road management, including asset management, output and performance-based maintenance contracts (OPBMC), climate vulnerability assessments, cost-effective road designs, innovative pavement methods, bridge design, road safety, and the use of IT in road management. Guidance notes were developed on use of OPBMC, road safety management, procurement, and contract management. However, the structured approach to strengthening institutional capacities through the adoption of the Human Resources Professional Development Strategy did not materialize as envisioned by the Project. 31. Achievement of PDO indicators. The pilot AI tool was developed and implemented in one district using GoB funds for its development (PDO 2.3). The Project implemented cost-effective road rehabilitation measures in 52.54 percent of the road lengths under the Project (PDO 2.2), achieving 105 percent of the original target. While the roads subject to planned maintenance contracting (PDO 2.4) significantly exceeded the original target, the achievement cannot be fully attributed to the Project as it includes roads beyond the Project scope and its implementation was mostly driven by the GoB’s maintenance policy. Table 3. Achievement of Output and Outcome Targets under PDO 2 Actual Actual Revised Actual Vs Original as of Vs Indicator Baseline Target revised Target Dec Original (Restruc 2) (Percent) 2023 (Percent) PDO 2.1 Improved effectiveness of project expenditure ‐ 0 50 Unchanged 52.54 105.08 Unchanged Project roads designed using cost‐effective measures (%) 2.2 Improved asset management ‐ number of districts that have developed and are using asset 0 10 Dropped 0 0.00 Dropped management system (No.) 2.3 Pilot AI based system in districts within the state (No.) 0 N/A 1 1 N/A 100.00 Intermediate 2.4 Length of roads subject to planned maintenance 4,600 10,000 Unchanged 45,420 454.20 Unchanged contracting (Km) Page 16 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) 2.5 RWD staff received at least six (6) weeks of professional training during the entire project duration 0 400 200 415 103.75 207.50 (No.) 2.6 Effective Citizen Feedback Mechanism (%) 0 85 Unchanged 100 117.65 Unchanged 2.7 Network level climate vulnerability assessment 0 2000 500 500 25.00 100.00 undertaken with special focus on floods (Km) 2.8 Gender‐based capacity enhancement (No.) 0 30 18 91 303.33 505.56 2.9 GIS based road and bridge inventory and condition database (including videography) established in project 0 50 Dropped 0 0.00 Dropped districts (%) 2.10 Road Safety improvement scheme related audits 0 2000 Unchanged 204 10.20 Unchanged undertaken on priority roads (Km) Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating Original Project 32. PDO 1: Improve rural road connectivity in project districts. The Project substantially achieved PDO indicator 1.1 (Increased road connectivity to habitations) and contributed significantly to improve living conditions of the rural communities in the state by providing sustainable connectivity and better accessibility to critical social and economic services. However, Project did not achieve the originally envisaged targets for length of roads improved and the number of beneficiaries. Considering the above, achievement of PDO 1 is rated “Substantial”. 33. PDO 2: Enhance management of roads in Bihar. The Project had a substantial impact in introducing cost efficiencies in road improvement, and the target of the number of RWD staff receiving training was exceeded. The groundwork for informed resilience management of the road network and improvements in integrated transport and logistic service provision has been laid, however, implementation is yet to begin. The network level vulnerability assessment was substantially underachieved. The Project was unsuccessful in implementing the AMS, which was a key institutional improvement envisaged under the Project. Considering the above, the achievement of PDO 2 is rated “Modest”. 34. Based on the above, the efficacy of the original Project is rated Modest. Restructured Project 35. PDO 1: Improve rural road connectivity in project districts. The Project benefited more communities (PDO 1.1) and beneficiaries (intermediate indicator 1.5) than envisioned in the restructured scope through road improvements, along with the significant benefits created as discussed above. The achievement of PDO 1 is therefore rated “High”. 36. PDO 2: Enhance management of roads in Bihar. The PDO 2 is assessed based on the following considerations, in addition to the discussion under the original Project. As discussed under Section 1.B, the AMS was dropped from the Project due to the state’s maintenance policy and the introduction of the AI tool which was expected to support asset management practices of RWD. However, the tool falls significantly short of a full-fledged AMS and thus, does not provide the expected benefits to improve asset management in the road Page 17 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) sector. Furthermore, given that the tool was not funded through the Project, the benefits of the tool are not attributable to the Project. While the state’s maintenance policy is being implemented, it only prescribes a basis for budget allocations for maintenance on a time-based methodology without considering road condition and other key technical criteria and does not guide a systematic road investment prioritization. Thus, the Project’s expected outcomes related to improving asset management were not fully realized. Furthermore, the Project achieved the reduced targets for completing network level vulnerability assessments, however, the recommendations are yet to be implemented. It exceeded the reduced targets for staff training, and gender- based capacity assessment, however, fell short of institutionalizing a structured approach through the implementation of the Human Resources Professional Development Strategy as envisaged. The achievement of PDO 2 is therefore rated “Modest”. 37. Based on the above discussion, the efficacy of the restructured Project is rated Substantial. C. EFFICIENCY Assessment of Efficiency and Rating 38. The ex-post economic analysis found that the Project remained economically viable at completion, with an Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) slightly above the rate at appraisal. The EIRR at appraisal was 15.1 percent and the rate at the completion is 15.9 percent. The Net Present Value (NPV) discounted at 6 percent is positive for the project. Table 4 provides the comparison of these values at appraisal and completion and Annex 4 provides further details of the analysis. Table 4. Comparison of Results of the Economic Analysis Details Total Road length (Km) EIRR (%) ENPV discounted at 6% (INR Mn) At appraisal 2,500 15.1 13,490 At completion 2,200 15.9 13,527 39. Reduction in per km cost of road improvements was a key driver of efficiency of the Project. As discussed in the efficacy section the low-cost paving methods introduced in the Project led to substantial cost savings. This also enabled the Project to improve around 200km of additional roads beyond the expected target of 2000km at Restructuring 2, despite the cancellation of US$27 million from the credit. Around US$5 million of funds remained unutilized at the end of the Project and were duly cancelled. The cost comparisons are provided in Table 5. Table 5. Comparison of Project Cost Detail At appraisal (2016) At completion (2024) Change % Project coverage (Km) 2500 2200 -12.00 Cost / Km (US$) 1 104,478 99,195 -5.06 US$1 = 67 INR (at 2016 cost) Page 18 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) 40. Project activities took 12 months longer to complete than the originally expected timeline, despite the reductions in scope. The Project closing date was extended twice to enable the completion of civil works that were delayed as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, flash floods, and the procurement delays during early years of implementation. Initiation of activities under Component 2 was delayed by over three years, due to capacity constraints, staff turnovers and prioritization of civil works. Other factors which affected the design and implementation efficiency of the Project are discussed in Section III. 41. Even though the Project faced some implementation delays, considering the economic benefits created and the substantial cost efficiencies generated, efficiency of the Project is rated Substantial. D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING 42. The overall outcome rating of the Project is Moderately Unsatisfactory based on the split rating method, as summarized in Table 6. Table 6. Overall Outcome Rating: Summary of the Split Rating Original Project Restructured Project Relevance of PDO High Efficacy of PDO Modest Substantial PDO 1 Substantial High PDO 2 Modest Modest Efficiency Substantial 1 Outcome ratings Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 2 Numerical value of the outcome ratings* 3 4 3 Disbursement (US$ million) 101.26 46.64 4 Share of disbursement (Percent) 69.4 31.5 5 Weighted value of the outcome rating (2*4) 2.08 1.26 Moderately Unsatisfactory 6 Final Outcome rating (2.08+1.26=3.32 rounding to 3) *Note: Highly Unsatisfactory (1); Unsatisfactory (2); Moderately Unsatisfactory (3); Moderately Satisfactory (4); Satisfactory (5); Highly Satisfactory (6) E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) Gender 43. The Project provided training to 91 female staff of RWD (22 percent of total 415 staff trained). Public consultations indicated that the Project helped: (i) improve women/girls’ access to schools and higher education opportunities leading to an increase in attendance of female students in schools, and (ii) provided women better access to health care services through better accessibility of ambulances, resulting in childbirths at health care institutions, rather than at home. Page 19 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) Institutional Strengthening 44. Institutional strengthening is a PDO element: Enhance management of roads in Bihar. The extent of achievement of this objective is discussed in the Efficacy section. Mobilizing Private Sector Financing 45. As the project was primarily involved in the rehabilitation of low volume rural roads, the scope for mobilizing private capital was limited. Private contractors were, however, awarded contracts, which included both construction/rehabilitation and five years of maintenance. Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity 46. PDO 1: Improve rural road connectivity in Project districts contributed to benefiting the rural poor in the Project districts, as discussed in the Efficacy section. Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts 47. The introduction of the system of Janata Durbars (peoples’ gatherings) was an impactful achievement of the Project in engaging communities in Project activities, ensuring that their concerns were addressed, and in creating community ownership of the road assets improved under the Project. These community gatherings led by the implementing agencies were held once a month. Citizens’ grievances were recorded, and commitments were made by the implementing agencies to address grievances as per agreed timelines. Citizens’ feedback on the extent of their satisfaction with the complaint resolution / grievance redressal mechanism, as well as their suggestions on the designs and alignments of project roads were also considered and acted on. The meetings were video recorded, and minutes of these meetings were maintained. Over time, the system contributed to improving citizens’ trust in the implementing agencies, leading to speedier Project implementation. RWD intends to replicate the system for all its projects and schemes. III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION 48. Project design had a clear rationale for the proposed activities. The majority of the activities under each component built on ongoing efforts and were presented with a clear justification. Rehabilitation of rural roads was a priority GoB program, and the roads were selected from the state core road network based on the habitations and linkages. Innovative and climate resilient technologies were proposed given the state’s vulnerability to floods as well as high material costs. Institutional strengthening activities were proposed to complement and / or take forward the identified activities under the RWD’s RSMP. 49. Readiness for implementation. At approval, contracts for over 40 percent of the planned road length were in the process of being awarded and technical designs were being prepared for another 22 percent. The Page 20 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) draft asset management plan, human resources development strategy and the road safety action plan had been developed to initiate Component 2 activities. 50. Implementation arrangements were geared to the sustainability of project interventions. The Project was designed to use the existing government arrangements for implementing the MMGSY road program to ensure that enhancements introduced under the Project would be absorbed in the broader program of the state. B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION Factors generally subject to the control of government and/or implementing entities 51. Capacity constraints of the implementing agency, design consultants and contractors. The quality of work in the first batch of contracts was affected by the inadequate technical skills of the design consultants and RWD, as well as the weak contractor capacity. The DPRs developed for the first batch of contracts lacked proper culvert analysis and design, road safety measures (e.g., guardrail, traffic calming, and junctions), and effective cost saving measures. The technical audit carried out on the completed roads in this batch of contracts highlighted the lack of drains, poor riding quality, edge breaking, and pavement cracks. RWD intends to implement the corrective measures recommended by the audit in the identified road sections. 52. Capacity gaps also affected the management of the Project’s environmental and social (E&S) safeguards. Until the MTR of the Project, the RWD did not have E&S specialists with the required skills and experience to ensure effective management of E&S issues and compliance with the Project’s safeguard’s instruments. Reporting on safeguards compliance and grievance redressal remained an issue during the first half of the Project, despite trainings provided by the Bank. In late 2020, the Project hired a firm to manage the Project’s E&S safeguards compliance and from mid-2021, safeguards management and compliance improved, and the Project began reporting more regularly on safeguards. 53. Shortage of staff assigned to manage the Project. The RWD staff and the Project Management Consultants (PMC) assigned to manage the Project were also responsible for managing other projects implemented by the RWD (such as MMGSY, PMGSY and maintenance of the road network), and could not fully commit their time to the Project. In addition, the change of the Project Director who was involved in project preparation resulted in a lack of accountability for, and ownership of, some Project activities during implementation, especially under Component 2. 54. Significant delays in implementing Component 2 activities. The implementation of Component 2 activities was delayed by over three years due to capacity constraints in the implementing agency, prioritization of civil works, and lack of strong commitment from the implementing agency which was partly due to the changes in Project staff who were engaged in the early stages of the Project. The delay in engaging a PMC to manage the component as envisaged at preparation also contributed to further delays. The activities were initiated after a dedicated PMC was engaged in 2020. 55. Small-value contract packaging. Civil works contracts were packaged either by a single road section or in small-value packages resulting in around 600 contracts (most of which were less than US$1 million in value, while some were less than US$0.5 million in value). This strained the procurement and contract management capacity and also led to cost and time overruns. Page 21 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) 56. Procurement delays. The award of contracts for the subsequent batches of roads faced delays of over two years, caused by, inter alia, delays in finalizing the list of roads (which required various approvals within the Government), delays in reaching agreement between the Bank team and RWD on the innovative pavement methods to be used, and delays in inputs from the Bank team to finalize technical designs and in finalizing technical designs, and weak response from the market which led to several rounds of rebids. Nevertheless, all planned contracts were signed around two years before Project closure. Factors generally subject to World Bank control 57. Supervision and reporting. Periodic progress reviews, close monitoring of disbursements, and implementation support missions helped address the challenges in project implementation. The Project MTR5 recommended that the Project be restructured to address the long delays in Component 2 implementation, by focusing on activities that could be completed by the Project closing date. This resulted in Restructuring 2, as discussed in Section B. The Bank’s supervision efforts and quality of reporting are discussed in Section IV.C. 58. Cancellations and restructurings. The Project was restructured five times as discussed in Section B. A total of US$82 million of the original credit was cancelled and the Project scope was revised due to slow progress and low disbursements. The credit closing date was extended in two stages for a total of 12 months to enable the completion of planned civil works. Factors generally outside the control of government and/or implementing entities 59. The COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic during 2020 – 2022 resulted in implementation delays in civil works due to restrictions in mobility and the closure of project sites for several months. 60. Flash floods. Flash floods that occurred in several districts in 2021 affected the progress of civil works. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) M&E Design 61. The retrofitted Theory of Change developed at the second restructuring clearly identifies the Project’s causal chain to achieve expected outcomes and the indicators are mostly relevant to the scope with some gaps. The indicators introduced in the original project are well defined, the baselines were clearly identified, and the targets were clearly defined. The methodologies for monitoring and data collection were simple and utilized the existing Management Information System (MIS) of the RWD. Responsibilities for reporting on progress towards achieving indicator targets were clearly identified. However, as discussed below, the indicators displayed some weaknesses in relation to measurability, attributability and in assessing Project impact. 5 The MTR was carried out during January 27-29, 2021. Page 22 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) a. Measurability. The PDO indicator “Roads in good and fair condition as a share of total classified roads” was difficult to measure due to the difficulties in collecting data given the different institutions responsible for managing roads in Bihar and challenged in defining the applicable geographical area. b. Attribution. The above PDO indicator and the intermediate indicator “Length of roads subject to planned maintenance contracting” were defined to consider roads in the entire state, impacts on while the project was only implemented in selected road sections. c. Assessing project impact. The M&E design included indicators that adequately captures achievement of PDO 1. The Project would, however, have benefited by including a beneficiary satisfaction indicator to assess the impact of the improved roads based on beneficiary feedback. The original and post-restructuring PDO indicators to assess PDO 2 were output oriented and did not adequately capture impacts envisioned by PDO 2: (i) the original PDO indicator “Improved asset management” measured the number of districts that had developed and were using an asset management system, while the PDO indicator introduced at the second restructuring “Pilot AI based system in districts within the state” assessed the number of districts, and not their impact; and (ii) the PDO indicator “Improved effectiveness of project expenditures” assessed the percentage of Project roads designed using cost‐effective measures, but not cost savings. M&E Implementation 62. Progress in achieving indicator targets was reported through quarterly progress reports submitted by RWD and progress reviews during missions. The Management Information System of the RWD was utilized for reporting on progress, as envisioned; however, quarterly progress reports were not provided regularly. An excel sheet-based monitoring mechanism was used to monitor progress of civil works and disbursements. The RWD submitted the MTR report with a detailed review of the progress of Component 1 and status of activities under Component 2. 63. There were some deficiencies in the reporting of a few indicators. The intermediate indicator “Road Safety improvement scheme related audits undertaken on priority roads” was reported on state roads where safety audits were carried out, rather than on project roads6. The intermediate indicator “Improved quality of built Infrastructure ‐ Project roads delivered with satisfactory quality certified through independent quality reviews” was measured through the state’s own quality monitoring system, rather than through independent reviews. However, a separate technical audit was later carried out to assess the quality of road works under the first batch of contracts. M&E Utilization 64. The M&E data were utilized to inform Project progress monitoring, and in determining the changes needed to the scope, as part of the various restructurings. These included the savings in the credit to be 6 This was rationalized in the last progress reporting and correct numbers relating to project roads have been reported in the ICR. Page 23 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) addressed through cancellations, extensions to the credit closing date to complete the project and changes to the scope of Component 2.1 on asset management. Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E 65. The overall quality of M&E is rated Modest, based on the above discussion of M&E Design, Implementation and Utilization. B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE 66. Environmental and Social Safeguards. The Project was classified as Category B and triggered the following Bank safeguard policies: Environmental Assessment (OP/BP 4.01); Physical Cultural Resources (OP/BP 4.11); Indigenous People (OP/BP 4.10); and Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12). Safeguards management was guided by the Environmental Management Framework (EMF), Environmental Codes of Practices (ECoPs), Social Management Framework (SMF), and a Vulnerability Framework (VF), which were prepared and disclosed by the project. 67. Environmental Compliance. The Project reported several shortcomings in environmental management during the first half of implementation: (i) delays in reporting environmental screening data for the roads; (ii) inadequate monitoring and reporting of implementation of environmental management aspects; (iii) capacity constraints in managing environmental safeguards. These issues were addressed in the latter half of the Project and the management and compliance of environmental safeguards improved with the mobilization of an environmental safeguards specialist to the Project. 68. Social Compliance. The Project did not involve any land acquisition or involuntary resettlement. Social risks and adverse impacts were largely temporary, site specific and manageable through the instruments developed during preparation. As discussed under Section III.B, safeguards management remained weak during the first half of the Project due to the lack of adequately skilled and experienced staff. The hiring of a firm to support E&S activities, helped improve safeguards management of the Project in the latter half of the project. The Project reported instances of OP 4.12 non-compliance in two sub-projects; road alignments (culverts and small bridges) in these two sub-projects inadvertently passed through small linear parcels of private land. These were addressed by the project under the guidance of the Bank, through consultations with villagers and subsequent changes in alignments to avoid encroachment on private lands. As discussed in Section III.B and Section IV.C, the Project also faced issues in reporting on grievances in the early stages, which were later resolved following the introduction of Janta Darbars. 69. Financial Management (FM). The Project complied with the Bank’s FM guidelines and procedures. The FM performance ratings were mostly Moderately Satisfactory during project implementation. Annual project budgets were adequately and timely provided by GoB and there were no substantial delays in the flow of funds. Bihar Rural Road Development Agency (BRRDA), through which RWD implemented the Project, used a computerized accounting software to account for project expenditures and submitted Interim Financial reports (IFRs) regularly. BRRDA engaged a consultant under the project to roll-out / operationalize a newer version of the accounting software in all District PIUs to efficiently manage FM functions, including timely consolidation of accounts and preparation of year-end entity financial statements. This activity could not be completed during the project period, and BRRDA has agreed to utilize GoB funds to complete this activity after project closure. Page 24 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) There were delays in conducting internal audits of the project due to delays in the appointment of internal auditors. The Project external audits were submitted to the Bank within the due date of December 31 every year. The audit opinions were ‘unmodified’ and no significant accountability or internal control issues were noted by the auditor. The external audit report for the final year of the Project (i.e., FY23-24 for the period April 01, 2023, to December 31, 2023) is required to be submitted by BRRDA to the Bank by December 31, 2024. 70. Procurement. Procurement under the Project consisted mainly of civil works, with a few consultancies and a small number of goods / non-consultancy services contracts. A Procurement Plan was created in STEP and was updated regularly. Bank procedures were duly followed, and Bank documents were used for all procurements. At times there were delays in procurement and there were some cases of rebidding; however, almost all planned procurements were completed during the first three years of the Project. There was a delay in the completion of most civil work contracts due to the COVID-19 pandemic; however, all packages were completed during the extended project period. There were some delays in updating STEP because of the numerous implementing offices in the state. Overall, the Project managed procurements in line with Bank systems and procedures. C. BANK PERFORMANCE Quality at Entry 71. The Project was strategically relevant and government commitment was secured at entry. As discussed under Section III.A, the Project built on the ongoing activities in the state under the GoB’s broader MMGSY program and existing sector development plans, with an aim to bring in value from the Bank’s experience in the sector in India and globally as well as in the country. The development objectives were strategically aligned with the sector requirements and the government’s development plans. The key plans for asset management, human resource development and road safety improvement were developed and approved by GoB during preparation. 72. Risks were adequately identified; however, the mitigation measures were not sufficient. The Project identified technical design and institutional capacity as substantial risks. Although mitigation measures were put in place to address staffing gaps through the engagement of a PMC and technical skills through capacity enhancements provided by local and international experts, they were not adequate. The capacity of the construction industry was adequately assessed as being less developed. The Project would have benefitted from including targeted capacity enhancement activities in the design and with better contract packaging (i.e., larger package sizes) to make contract management more efficient. 73. Capacity enhancement of implementing agencies was given adequate consideration during preparation, including workshops and trainings by international experts on innovative technologies and on the use of local materials in rural road construction, support from consultants on the rehabilitation of bridges, and study tours to Japan and UK on climate resilience and disaster risk management in the road sector. A procurement capacity assessment was carried out and the required trainings were provided at appraisal. 74. An institutional assessment was carried out to inform the activities under Component 2 of the Project. The study identified actions required to improve business practices of the implementing agency in areas such as planning and project preparation, funding, procurement, and project monitoring. It also assessed the Online Page 25 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) Management, Monitoring and Accounting System (OMMAS) used by the BRRDA and provided recommendations to further improve the system. Quality of Supervision 75. Implementation support was provided through regular missions, support from technical consultants, and workshops / trainings. The Bank supported project implementation through eight missions, complemented by technical visits and virtual discussions. The Bank provided substantial support to improve the quality of the DPRs for the road packages; the RWD was introduced to a DPR compliance tool to supplement owner-level DPR reviews for future PMGSY/MMGSY projects. Procurement support was provided to familiarize the implementing agency with the Bank’s procurement procedures as well as with the STEP system and substantial handholding support was provided to the implementing agencies on safeguards compliance and management through support from technical consultants and several workshops (see details in Section III.B). 76. Significant efforts were made by the Bank to introduce and mainstream the concepts and good practices of asset management in the road sector and to retain the original activities around asset management to ensure the achievement of the expected development outcome. In addition to continuous efforts by the task teams, there was high level engagement from the Bank management to sensitize the decision makers of the government of the benefits and importance of institutionalizing asset management in RWD. 77. The Bank could have been more proactive in addressing the long implementation delays in Component 2. The long delay in Component 2 implementation largely stemmed from inadequate capacity and a lack of strong commitment / ownership from the implementing agency which resulted in prioritization of civil works. While increased efforts by the Bank to provide more support through technical consultants and close follow ups helped expedite implementation in the latter part of the Project, the Bank could have been more proactive in providing more support to the implementing agency at an earlier stage or to restructure the Project earlier to change the scope as appropriate. 78. Bank intervention made a significant difference in the management and reporting of grievances. The Meri Sadak app, originally used for grievance reporting in the Project, was not successful in recording grievances due to the poor literacy levels in the state, lack of access to smartphones, and lack of awareness on the existence of the app. The Bank guided the Project to have regular community meetings at the Panchayat level. The Janta Darbar system introduced by the Project helped increase community engagement and reporting on grievances under the Project. 79. Implementation and disbursement progress was closely monitored, issues were candidly discussed and agreed actions were closely followed up. Project progress, challenges and problems were candidly discussed in mission Aide Memoires, Management Letters and ISRs. Appropriate measures and interventions to address the challenges were recommended through the missions. Close monitoring of the achievement of results and disbursements appropriately informed the cancellations and restructurings. The Bank team consisted of a mix of staff and consultants based in the country office, in Washington, and in the region. This enabled close follow up and quick response to implementation challenges. The local staff’s knowledge of the country and state context contributed to the quality of implementation support. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance Page 26 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) 80. Based on the above discussion on the quality of the Bank’s engagement at entry and during supervision, Bank performance is rated Moderately Satisfactory. D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 81. The development outcomes of the Project are likely to be sustained, although there are some risks. GoB’s commitment to carrying forward the key infrastructure and operational improvements supported by the Project is demonstrated by the following: (i) the plan to expand the AI maintenance system to the entire network, potentially with more features on asset management; (ii) the introduction of the Bihar Rural Roads Maintenance Policy in 2018 mandating performance-based maintenance for roads completing five-year routine maintenance; (iii) the state policy on Road Safety, which mandates road safety audits for every road section that is longer than five kms; and (iv) the adoption of innovative, low cost pavement methods in the state’s MMGSY program. The key risk to the sustainability of these outcomes stems from the low institutional capacity in the road sector agencies in terms of staffing and skills. Further strengthening the skills and the staffing in these agencies is critical to sustain these outcomes and further enhance road sector management in the state. V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 82. Strengthening institutions requires long term engagement and strong government commitment, and thus, a programmatic approach may be better suited for such projects. As was evident by the Project’s experience in implementing institutional reforms, strengthening institutional processes, efficiencies, and capacities, and introducing new ways of doing business can be complex and time consuming. The lack of strong commitment from the implementing agencies along with changing political priorities can also hinder the process; this often leads to prioritizing infrastructure improvement, which are more straightforward, over institutional improvements that can be time consuming to implement and often requires strong ownerships and champions to execute. A comparative assessment carried out by the World Bank of the performance of road sector projects in the Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Rajasthan in India highlights that successful implementation of key reforms in Karnataka and Anhdra Pradesh, such as adopting a road policy framework and a systematic road asset management approach, can be attributed to strong ownership, holistic approach and constant learning and innovation illustrated by the state governments. A programmatic approach, which goes beyond a typical project lifecycle, could help maintain continuous consultations and engagement with the government agencies to sensitize them to the benefits of institutional improvements and to build strong commitment over time to implement them. 83. Strong and flexible Bank support is required where the implementing agency and the sector has significant capacity gaps. The Project was able to address the long delays, safeguards management issues, and implementation challenges faced in the first few years of the Project and expedite implementation during the latter part as a result of more handholding and targeted support from the Bank. The flexibility in the level of Bank support in response to emerging capacity shortfalls was important for the successful implementation of Project activities. In instances where significant capacity gaps are identified in the implementing agencies, such support can be built into the Project design at the beginning and options such as Hands-on Expanded Implementation Support (HEIS) can be explored for both procurement and technical support. Furthermore, considering the capacity shortfalls identified through the Project, future engagements can focus on improving the capacity of: (i) implementing agencies in relevant technical specifications, including on climate resilience Page 27 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) and road safety, to develop quality DPRs, and in supervision and monitoring of civil works; (ii) design consultants to develop quality specifications and designs; and (iii) small contractors to improve the quality of infrastructure. 84. Synergies from existing ongoing national and state level rural roads programs/ projects should be leveraged. Based on the experience of rural road engagement at the national level and in other states, the project design incorporated the lessons learned and was built on the existing programs (PMGSY, MMGSY) including adoption of prioritization framework of investments, bidding document of PMGSY, three-tier quality monitoring mechanism, grievance redressal, contracting capacity etc. However, the execution during implementation period could have also benefitted from leveraging the institutional strengthening (e-Marg, OMMAS, new technologies) and technology adoption under the national program (PMGSY). These could also have been complimented with the learnings and results achieved in other states including Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh etc. 85. Asset and resilient management practices in the road sector can be strengthened further. The Project introduced asset and resilient management practices in the road sector. However, there is significant potential to develop these further through: expanding the pilot AI system to a full-fledged asset management system which helps prioritize road investments in an evidence-based, systematic approach; establishment of a trained asset management unit within RWD with adequate fund allocations; implementing the recommendations of the climate vulnerability assessment and expanding it to critical sections of the road network; development of a state-level policy or guidelines to integrate climate considerations into network planning, prioritizing, technical designs and maintenance; and developing institutional capacity on both asset management and climate resilience in infrastructure. 86. Innovative road rehabilitation methods can bring benefits, but their sustainability need to be monitored over time. The Project was successful in introducing low-cost pavement methods. While these have contributed to cost reductions in the Project, their sustainability should be monitored over time based on the climatic conditions of the state and lifecycle costs, including routine and periodic maintenance. 87. Building trust through close consultations with communities can improve efficiencies in project implementation. As demonstrated by the experiences from the Janta Darbar initiative, it is clear that regular consultations with project communities play a key role in fostering trust towards the project and the implementing agencies. Engaging community members in project activities, promptly addressing their feedback and concerns, and incorporating their suggestions are essential strategies that not only build trust but also facilitate smoother and more efficient project implementation. Such participatory approaches can be integrated into the design of future projects to enhance their effectiveness and community acceptance. 88. The adequacy and appropriateness of technology should be assessed against the specific contexts and environments in which it is used. A key lesson from the Project’s experience with the use of an app to record grievances is that when technology is used, particularly involving communities with poor literacy and inadequate access to technological devices, it is important to ensure that (i) the technology used is tailored to address the specific requirements of the users, (ii) users are aware and educated in how to use the technological solution, and (iii) the appropriateness of the use of technology is assessed in the specific context. As was evident from the Project’s experience with Janta Darbars which promoted more person-person interaction, at times, more human-oriented solutions can create better results compared to technological solutions. . Page 28 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: Increased road connectivity to habitations Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Increased road connectivity Number 60,280.00 62,000.00 61,200.00 61,476.00 to habitations 30-Sep-2016 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator description: Defined as a habitation connected by a road constructed to all‐weather standards, including bridges and necessary cross drainage works but allowing for submergence of some of its sections during floods. Habitation is considered connected when it is formally opened to traffic by RWD. The actual incremental number of habitations connected has exceeded the formally revised target at Restructuring 2. This is due to the rehabilitation of a higher number of kms of roads than what was targeted at the restructuring. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Roads in good and fair Percentage 40.00 50.00 83.00 Page 29 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) condition as a share of total 30-Sep-2016 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2023 classified roads Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator description: Percentage of the total classified road network in the project area that is in good and fair condition depending on the road surface and the level of roughness. Classified roads are the roads that have been included in the roads legislation as public roads. Please note that this indicator requires supplemental information Supplemental Value: Total classified network in the project area (KM) The Supplemental value is the total classified network in the project area. Classified roads are the roads that have been included in the roads legislation as public roads. The actual percentage of roads in good and fair condition in the entire state has exceeded the original target. However, as this is beyond the scope of the Project which covered few districts, the achievement is not entirely attributable to the Project. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Improved effectiveness of Percentage 0.00 50.00 52.54 project expenditure - Project roads designed using cost- 30-Sep-2016 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2023 effective measures. Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator description: These measures are defined in the recently introduced IRC guidelines such as IRC 72, 62 (issued in 2015) and other guidelines based on the research work done under PMGSY and including climate resilient and environmentally optimized road designs. The indicator exceeded the target. Selected roads under Batch II and III packages were rehabilitated using cost effective measures such as (i) use of waste plastic in flexible pavements, and (ii) use of panel concrete in rigid pavements. Page 30 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Pilot AI based system in Number 0.00 1.00 1.00 districts within the state 07-Feb-2022 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): The pilot has inspected 1000km of roads the Vaishali district using the system and the RWD is planning to expand this system to the entire network. It should be noted that the development of the tool was funded by state funds, and not by project funds. Therefore, this output cannot be directly attributed to the Project. A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Rural Roads Improvement Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Roads constructed, Rural Kilometers 0.00 2,500.00 2,000.00 2,200.00 30-Sep-2016 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator description: Kilometers of rural roads constructed under the project. Rural roads are roads functionally classified in various countries below Trunk or Primary, Secondary or Link roads, or sometimes Tertiary roads. Such roads are often described as rural access, feeder, market, agricultural, irrigation, Page 31 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) forestry or community roads. Typically, rural roads connect small urban centers/towns/settlements of less than 2,000 to 5,000 inhabitants to each other or to higher classes of road, market towns and urban centers. The actual number of km of rural roads rehabilitated has exceeded the formally revised target. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Improved quality of built Percentage 0.00 85.00 85.00 Infrastructure - Project roads delivered with satisfactory 30-Sep-2016 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2023 quality certified through independent quality reviews Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator description: The design and construction standards are prescribed under MMGSY guidelines and relevant IRC documents. The quality monitoring for designs and construction standards will be undertaken by independent technical examiners/SQMs. While all the roads have to meet the prescribed quality standards, there might be some poorly performing contracts due to reasons such as remote location and low capacity of the contractors, in such cases, contract remedies will be applied. RWD reports that 85% of the roads rehabilitated under the project have been delivered with satisfactory quality. A technical audit carried out in sample roads identified some shortfalls and gaps and it is expected that these will be rectified and a compliance report will be submitted to the Bank. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Page 32 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) Direct project beneficiaries Number 0.00 1,200,000.00 744,499.00 838,240.00 30-Sep-2016 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2023 Female beneficiaries Percentage 0.00 48.00 48.00 Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator description: Direct beneficiaries are people or groups who directly derive benefits from an intervention. The actual number of direct beneficiaries of improved roads have exceeded the formally revised target at Restructuring 2. This is due to the rehabilitation of a higher number of kms of roads than what was targeted at the restructuring. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Road Safety improvement Kilometers 0.00 2,000.00 204.00 scheme related audits undertaken on priority roads 30-Sep-2016 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator description: Number of km of project roads on which road safety audits have been undertaken. The state's road safety audit guidelines stipulate that road safety audits are to be done on roads longer than 5km. Therefore, road safety audits have been done only on 31 Project roads (adding to 204 kms) which are longer than 5km. As such, the indicator falls short of the target. Page 33 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) Component: Asset Management and Institutional Effectiveness Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Length of roads subject to Kilometers 4,600.00 10,000.00 45,420.00 planned maintenance contracting 30-Sep-2016 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator description: Number of km of rural roads which are under either performance based maintenance contracts or other innovative maintenance contracts. The actual number of km of rural roads in the state under performance based maintenance contracts has exceeded the original target. This falls within the state's road maintenance policy. Given that this indicator considers roads beyond the scope of the Project, its achievement cannot be fully attributed to the Project. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion RWD staff received at least Number 0.00 400.00 200.00 415.00 six (6) weeks of professional training during the entire 30-Sep-2016 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2023 project duration. Page 34 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator description: The professional training is to be provided in specified subject defined under the Human Resources Professional Development Strategy. Various trainings were carried out for RWD staff under the Project and both the revised and original targets have been exceeded. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Effective Citizen Feedback Percentage 0.00 85.00 100.00 Mechanism 30-Sep-2016 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator description: Percentage of feedback from citizens on project roads received on mobile app (“Meri Sadak”) and through other means (e‐mail, post, etc.) responded to within 30 days. The actual percentage of feedback responded to within 30 days have exceeded the original target. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Network level climate Kilometers 0.00 2,000.00 500.00 500.00 Page 35 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) vulnerability assessment 30-Sep-2016 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2023 undertaken with special focus on floods Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator description: Network level vulnerability assessment undertaken on specified km of road network, with special focus on floods as part of Component 2. The network vulnerability assessment on 500km of rural roads were carried out in line with the revised target of Restructuring 2. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Gender-based capacity Number 0.00 30.00 18.00 91.00 enhancement 30-Sep-2016 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator description: Number of training workshops for youth on laboratory and field investigations, engineering designs, and other similar tasks, and gender‐based skill enhancement for construction workers and small contractors. 91 female employees of RWD have been trained exceeding the formally revised target. Page 36 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT Objective/Outcome 1: Improved rural road connectivity in project districts 1. Increased road connectivity to habitations 2. Roads in good and fair condition as a share of total classified roads Outcome Indicators 3. Improved effectiveness of project expenditure - Project roads designed using cost-effective measures 1. Roads constructed, Rural 2. Improved quality of built Infrastructure - Project roads delivered with satisfactory quality certified through independent quality reviews Intermediate Results Indicators 3. Direct project beneficiaries 4. Road Safety improvement scheme related audits undertaken on priority roads Key Outputs by Component 1. Roads rehabilitated (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1) 2. Effective community engagement Objective/Outcome 2: Enhanced management of roads in Bihar Outcome Indicators 1. Pilot AI based system in districts within the state 1. Length of roads subject to planned maintenance contracting 2. RWD staff received at least six (6) weeks of professional training during the entire Intermediate Results Indicators 3. Effective Citizen Feedback Mechanism 4. Network level climate vulnerability assessment undertaken with special focus on floods 5. Gender-based capacity enhancement Key Outputs by Component 1. Network resilience assessment Page 37 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 2) 2. Innovative cost-effective read rehabilitation methods used 3. Road safety checklists 4. Capacity building Page 38 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS Name Role Preparation Ashok Kumar Task Team Leader(s) Sangeeta Patel Procurement Specialist(s) Puneet Kapoor Financial Management Specialist Aruna Aysha Das Team Member Ross S. Pavis Team Member Victor Dato Team Member Sangeeta Kumari Social Specialist Neha Pravash Kumar Mishra Social Specialist Deepak Man Singh Shrestha Team Member Reenu Aneja Team Member Supervision/ICR James Robert Markland Task Team Leader(s) Sangeeta Patel Procurement Specialist(s) Arvind Prasad Mantha Financial Management Specialist Aruna Aysha Das Team Member N. S. Srinivas Team Member Radha Narayan Procurement Team Neha Pravash Kumar Mishra Environmental Specialist Anindo Kumar Chatterjee Social Specialist Tema Alawari Kio-Michael Team Member Michael Tessitore Team Member Page 39 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) Madhushree Banerjee Team Member B. STAFF TIME AND COST Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY16 26.824 140,153.73 FY17 47.506 256,949.55 FY18 4.541 16,138.80 FY19 .595 2,071.54 FY20 .512 2,020.74 Total 79.98 417,334.36 Supervision/ICR FY16 0 205.64 FY18 20.555 134,225.21 FY19 25.845 180,763.67 FY20 35.638 191,607.18 FY21 44.081 210,427.18 FY22 40.291 197,547.91 FY23 17.866 105,135.22 FY24 11.069 33,587.65 Total 195.35 1,053,499.66 Page 40 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Amount at Approval Actual at Project Percentage of Approval Components (US$M) Closing (US$M) (%) Rural Roads Improvement 320.00 211.00 65.93 Asset Management and 15.00 3.00 20.00 Institutional Effectiveness Total 335.00 214.00 63.88 Page 41 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS Summary of Results and Conclusions from the Ex-Post Economic Analysis at the End of Project 1. Economic evaluation was carried out for completed upgrading of gravel roads to paved roads with necessary cross-drainage works under Bihar Rural Roads Project (BRRP) India covering 2,200 km length. In the analysis, the ‘with project’ improvement alternative was compared with the ‘without project’ alternative of minimum maintenance of the existing road: “Do Minimum” i.e., (a) Base case (Without improvements and with annual “Do Minimum” maintenance), and (b) Improvement Alternative (with improvement/upgradation and annual “routine maintenance” supplemented by a periodical maintenance at six-year intervals). The results of the economic analysis conducted are summarized in Table 4.1 below and are based on: (i) final completion costs, (ii) implementation period; and (iii) observed traffic growth rate during the implementation period and their sensitivity analysis after 20 percent reduction in benefits. The ex-post EIRR is higher than the Economic Opportunity Cost of Capital (EOCC) of 6 percent. Table 4.1. Results of the Economic Analysis Switching EIRR MIRR Sl. No. Sensitivity Scenario NPV @6% INR Million Value (SV) (Percentage) (Percentage) (Percentage) 1 Base Case 15.9 10.6 13,527 20 percent decrease 2 13.2 9.4 8,899 58 in project benefit EIRR - Economic Internal Rate of Return MIRR - Modified Internal Rate of Return NPV- Net Present Value discounted @6% 2. The end-of-project EIRR of 15.9 percent, indicates that the completed project is economically viable with decreased construction cost, lower traffic growth and project coverage, and longer implementation period. The NPV discounted at 6 percent is positive. Considering a 20 percent reduction in yearly benefits, the EIRR is 13.2 percent. The completion stage EIRR and NPV are slightly higher, as shown in the Table 4.2 below. Tables 4.3, 4.4, and 4.5 provide additional information relevant to the economic analysis. Table 4.2. Comparison of Economic Analysis Results Details Year Total Road length EIRR (%) ENPV discounted at 6% (INR (Km) Million) At appraisal 2016 2,500 15.1% 13,490 At completion 2024 2,200 15.9% 13,527 Page 42 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) Table 4.3. Comparison of Project Cost at Appraisal and Completion Detail At appraisal (2016) On completion (2024) Change (Percentage) Project coverage (Km) 2500 2200 -12.00 Cost / Km (US$)1 1,04,478 99,195 -5.06 US$1 = 67 INR (at 2016 cost) Table 4.4. Traffic Growth Rates During 2016 - 2023 Vehicle Category Average daily traffic (No. of vehicles) At appraisal (2016) At completion (2023) CGR (2016 - 2023) (Percentage) Motorised Vehicle M/C 54 117 11.5 Car 22 33 5.7 Tractor 52 50 -0.7 Bus 0 8 74.8 Truck 9 4 -12.7 Total 138 211 6.2 Non-motorised vehicles Cycle 73 111 6.3 Cycle Rickshaw 9 8 -0.9 Animal Cart 20 12 -6.7 Pedestrian 100 150 6.0 Total 201 282 4.9 Source: Nodal Officer, MMGSY, Rural Works Department, Government of Bihar, 2016 & 2024. Table 4.5. Comparison of Traffic Growth Rates During 2016 - 2023 Annual growth Rate (Percentage) Vehicle Type Observed growth rate Estimated at appraisal Bus 74.8 7.0 Minibus 74.8 7.0 Two wheelers 11.5 7.0 Car 5.7 7.0 Trucks -12.7 7.0 Tractors -0.7 7.0 Average 6.2 7.0 Page 43 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) 3. Conclusions. The above results show the economic feasibility indicators under normal and adverse sensitivity scenarios, including significant decrease in cost, for the project are more than the required minimum EIRR of 6 percent. Also, these base analysis and sensitivity are unlikely to happen as: (i) traffic is expected to grow to accompany the current economic growth; (ii) there is no uncertainty on the cost of the works as all the contracts are completed; and (iii) VOCs are unlikely to be reduced in view of the past trend for the price of inputs such as fuel, lubricants, tires, and salaries. Also, the estimated economic feasibility results are on the conservative side as qualitative project benefits like tourism development, increased road safety, better road environment are not considered in this analysis. Summary of Economic Analysis at Appraisal 4. At the time of appraisal of the project, economic analysis was carried out for the project with the coverage of 2,500 km with flexible pavement improvement option within the roads. The summary of the EIRR for the project is presented in Table 4.6. Table 4.6. Results of the Economic Analysis at Appraisal (2016) Improvement Capital Cost Project Total Length Km EIRR (Percentage) proposal US$ Million Upgrade to BRRP 2,500 261.19 15.1 paved road Approach and Methodology for the Ex-Post Economic Analysis 5. The economic analysis at appraisal was updated for the ex-post economic analysis with data on completion of works. The details are presented in Table 4.7. Table 4.7: Details of Completed Project Roads Details Completed No. of Roads 806 Total Length Km 2,200 Districts covered 10.00 No. of villages connected 1,196 Average Road Length (Km/Road) 2.73 Average habitations Covered - 2016 (No.)/Road 1.48 Average population Covered - 2016 (No.)/Road 1,022 Total Population Coverage (2016) 8,23,732 Source: Nodal Officer, MMGSY, Rural Works Department, Government of Bihar, 2024. Project cost 6. Construction Program. The completed construction program for BRRP is summarized in Table 4.8. Page 44 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) Table 4.8: Construction Program (Project Phasing on Completion) Year Disbursed Project Cost (US$ Million) Bank funding7 Govt. of Bihar Total % 2017-18 37.85 16.22 54.07 24.8% 2018-19 19.81 8.49 28.31 13.0% 2019-20 6.97 2.99 9.96 4.6% 2020-21 19.96 8.55 28.51 13.1% 2021-22 37.33 16.00 53.32 24.4% 2022-23 30.83 13.21 44.04 20.2% Total 152.75 65.46 218.21 100.0% Source: Nodal Officer, MMGSY, Rural Works Department, Government of Bihar, 2024. US$ 1= 67 INR (2016) 7. Components of Cost. the economic costs were computed by multiplying the financial cost by a factor of 0.85, as presented in Table 4.9. Table 4.9: Financial and Economic Costs of the completed Project Project Length (Km) Completed Project cost Economic Cost INR INR INR US$ /Km US$ /Km Million Million/Km Million/Km BRRP 2,199.79 14,619.93 6.65 0.10 5.65 0.08 US$ 1 = 67 INR (at 2016 cost) 8. Maintenance Cost. Maintenance works considered in the analysis include annual routine maintenance and periodic maintenance. Maintenance costs for gravel roads (without project scenario) and paved roads (with project scenario) were determined based on discussions with BRRDA officials and NRRDA guidelines8, and were used to estimate the incremental maintenance costs at appraisal and for the ICR. Estimating the Benefits I. Traffic related Benefits 9. The 6.2 percent annual growth observed during the implementation period (2016-2023) and the 7 percent annual growth during the operation period from 2024 estimated at appraisal were used for the ex-post economic analysis. The ‘generated traffic’ due to the proposed road development estimated at appraisal was retained for the ex-post economic analysis. 7 The analysis was carried out with the assumption of full disbursement by completion of the ICR. 8 Unit rates for maintenance are based on the inputs from MPRRDA and NRRDA. Page 45 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) 10. The savings in the VOC and passenger time value for each vehicle category were adapted from Indian Roads Congress (IRC) guidelines (2009)9 with suitable update to 2016, as given in Table 4.10. Using these unit rates and the projected traffic, VOC and travel time cost were estimated for both ‘without project scenario’ for gravel roads and ‘with project scenario’ for paved roads. The differences between these two scenarios were considered as traffic related benefits. For benefit calculations, existing traffic and generated traffic were treated separately. For generated traffic, 50 percent of the VOC and time cost for the improved situation were treated as project benefits. Table 4.10: Unit rates for calculating VOC and Travel Time for Rural Roads (at 2016 prices) Value of Time: INR/vehicle km Vehicle Operating Cost: INR/vehicle km Vehicle Type Earthen Gravel Gravel BT Road1 Earthen Road2 BT Road1 Road2 Road2 Road2 M/C 6.4 4.4 2.47 6.9 4.5 2.51 Car 39.2 26.2 19.64 17.8 12.1 7.23 Tractor 2.5 1.9 1.34 30.7 24.9 21.30 Bus 67.6 56.4 33.90 41.7 33.6 27.55 Truck 14.1 10.4 7.55 33.5 26.0 22.07 Note: 1. Unit vales suggested in Indian Roads Congress, SP 30, 2009 updated to 2016. 2. Proportional unit costs of BT road to gravel and earthen roads from other studies used to arrive at unit rates for earthen and gravel roads for 2016. II. Carbon Emission Reduction Benefits The improved road surface from gravel roads to paved roads will result in increased travel speeds and reduced fuel reduction for the motorized vehicles using the project road network will lead to a reduction fuel consumption and in carbon emissions. Assuming an average roughness estimate of 8 for the ‘without project’ engineered-gravel roads, and a roughness estimate of 4 for the ‘with project’ paved road surfaces, the related fuel consumption quantity, carbon emission rate (0.0023 ton/ litre), carbon cost (US$ 36 per ton in 2016)10 and the traffic, annual carbon emissions for the project under the ‘without’ and the ‘with’ project scenarios were estimated for the project network of 2,200 km. The resultant carbon emission is estimated to decrease to 0.11 million tons during the analysis period (2017-2036). 9 Manual on Economic Evaluation of Highway Projects in India (Second Revision), Indian Roads Congress, 2009 (IRC SP 30-2009) 10 Estimated based on’ Guidance notes on shadow price of carbon in economic analysis November 14, 2017, World Bank . Page 46 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) ANNEX 5. BORROWER’S COMMENTS Following comments were received from the borrower on May 24, 2024. Sq. Section of the ICR Comments from the Borrower 1. Datasheet - Financing The World bank Financing will be IDA-5938-IN In addition to Actual Disbursed till date (146.02) a claim of 2.10 Mn (Oct to Dec 23) has been submitted to the bank which was accepted by the Bank. Request to 2. Datasheet - Financing consider it in ICR. Accordingly figures will change at Page 2 and at other places as well. The revised amount of Borrower/Recipient will be 65,600,000 (30 % of 3. Datasheet - Financing 153,000,000). Accordingly, Total Project Cost will change. (Page 2) Moreover, please refer Table 4.8 at Page 46-47 in which the Total Project Cost is different. Figure 1. Theory of Change: Under Outputs – Network level climate vulnerability 4. Section I.A. – Theory of change assessment undertaken – reduced from 2000 to 500 km. (Page 8) 5. Section I.A. – Theory of change MSME study also to be included under Outcomes. (Page 8) Section I.A. Components – It will be 208.612 if the revised amount of Borrower is revised from 67,000,000 to 6. Component 1 completion cost 65,600,000 US dollars. Section I.A. Components – Will it be 3.37 (28.05 Crore of TA Component/8.319 = 3.37) or has been kept 3 7. Component 2 completion cost considering different applicable dollar rates. Section I.B. Significant changes Reasons also need to be highlighted like prevailing pandemic and flash floods 8. during implementation – being faced by various districts as communicated vide RWD letter dated Restructuring 2 26.11.2021. Or it is from 320 to 218.60 due to the cancellation of IDA funds and the reduction in counterpart funding which included Component 2 as well. As per the Partial Section I.B. Significant changes Cancellation Letter of the World Bank dated 22.03.2024, 158 US Millions covered 9. during implementation – Revised all "Goods, Works, non consulting services, consultants' services, Training & components, Component 1 cost Workshops, and Operating Costs for the Project". There was no separate reduction proposed exclusively for Asset Management and Institutional Effectiveness. Section I.B. Significant changes 10. during implementation – Revised In line of our comments on a, (i) needs to be removed. components, Component 2 cost Section I.B. Significant changes Post reduction of 50 Mn on account of COVID, the balance available was sufficient 11. during implementation – Rationale enough to take up road sections only; this is why 25 innovative bridges and 5 for changes model roads were dropped. RWD was clear about the scope. Except the activities which were dropped from Section I.B. Significant changes the scope, other activities such as trainings and capacity building were 12. during implementation – Rationale continuously happening in addition to the activities agreed to be taken up under for changes Component 2. Section II.B. Efficacy – PDO 2, Table 13. 3, RWD staff received at least six (6) To be revised as 415.The detailed Break-up Sheet is enclosed for ready reference. weeks of professional training Section II.B. Efficacy – PDO 2, Table To be revised as 91.In the year 2022, 73 new female Asst Engineers were inducted 14. 3, Gender-based capacity in RWD who went through various trainings. ( 18+73=91) enhancement Section II.B. Efficacy – Justification of How can the Project achieve original targets when it has been reduced in 15. overall efficacy rating (original Restructuring 2. The efficacy of PDO 2 of original project should be more than Page 47 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) project) Modest because Project made significant achievements in training and network level vulnerability assessment. As such, the efficacy of the original project should be rated higher than the modest. Section II.B. Efficacy – Justification of The Project achieved the targets after Restructuring 2; as such it should be rated 16. overall efficacy rating (restructured more than Modest for PDO2. The efficacy rating of the restructured project should project) be more than Substantial. Section II.D. Justification of overall It is not acceptable. It needs to be relooked based on the ratings of PDO 1 and 17. outcome rating – Rating of MS PDO 2 for Original Project and Restructured Project. Refer Page 3 of the document. It is Moderately Unsatisfactory in sl. no. 7 to 11 Section II.D. Justification of overall 18. which is primarily the covid period. If considered Moderately Satisfactory in outcome rating – Split rating, Table 6 Original Project, Final Outcome rating would be Moderately Satisfactory. Section II.E. Other outcomes and 19. To be revised as 91 female staff of RWD (22 percent of total 415 staff trained) impacts - Gender Section III.B Key factors during The narrative may be suitably modified as the language speaks more about the 20. implementation – Capacity negative aspects which is not true in general. constraints Section III.B Key factors during 21. The Project Director was available at all times. implementation – Staff shortages Section III.B Key factors during The Single road tenders in Batch I were carried out in consultation with the Word 22. implementation – Small value bank Team. Later in Batch II & III, the roads were tendered in Packages. contract packaging Delays are attributable to the World bank as well, since there was no clarity in Section III.B Key factors during terms of type of designs to be adopted to fulfill the optimization requirement 23. implementation – Procurement from environment perspective for 700 km of Batch III roads till June 2019. Please delays refer the Aid Memoire of June 2019 in this regard. The progress under Component II was reported in the respective Quarterly Section IV.A. Quality of M&E – M&E Progress Reports to the extent activities taken up under the head minus the 24. implementation activities associated with RAMS which was mutually agreed and later replaced by a pilot project. Section IV.A. Quality of M&E – 25. Justification of overall rating of Should be rated higher. quality of M&E Generally in Batch II & III roads, Packages at block level were formed and accordingly bids were invited. There would have been implementation issues Section IV.A. Bank performance – 26. associated with larger packages owning to the constraints related to the Quality at entry, risks contracting capacity within the state. Hence, the packages were formed in view of receiving competitive response from the available contractors. Annex 1. Results framework – Regarding the technical audit rectification and compliance - The compliance 27. Intermediate indicators, Improved report has been already shared. (Page 33) quality of built infrastructure Annex 2.B – Task team members at The names of Ashok Kumar, Justin Rungi, Michael Tessitore, Madhushree Banerjee 28. supervision are missing from the Supervision List. Please incorporate. (Page 38) 29. Annex 3. Project cost by component Annex 3. Project Cost By Component needs to be updated. (Page 42) Annex 4. Efficiency Analysis – Table 30. Please check. May kindly be rechecked. 4.4 CGR% of Trucks Page 48 of 49 The World Bank Bihar Rural Roads Project (P155522) ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS 1. Financing Agreement, Bihar Rural Roads Project, Credit No. 5938-IN, between India and International Development Association, May 29, 2017, including Amendments. 2. Project Appraisal Document, Bihar Rural Roads Project, Report No. PAD2150, including subsequent restructuring papers. 3. Aide Memoires and Management Letters of the Preparation and Implementation Supervision Missions from 2016 to 2023, The World Bank. 4. Implementation Status and Results Reports, Bihar Rural Roads Project, Sequence Nos. 1–14, 2017–2023. 5. Country Partnership Framework for India for the Period 2018–22, World Bank, Report No. 126667-IN, July 25, 2018. 6. Strategy for New India @75, NITI Aayog, Government of India. 7. Project progress reports and mid-term review report, Rural Works Department, Government of Bihar. 8. Social Impact Evaluation of BRRP, Rural Works Department, Government of Bihar. 9. Case Study on Benefits to Village Connected by the Project Road under MMGSY, Rural Works Department, Government of Bihar. 10. Integrated Transport and Logistics Service Framework, Rural Works Department, Government of Bihar. 11. Network Level Climate Vulnerability Assessment Report, (Deloitte on behalf of) Rural Works Department, Government of Bihar. 12. Technical audit reports. 13. Comparative Assessment of State’s Initiatives: Case of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh & Telangana and Rajasthan, World Bank. 14. Road Sector Modernization Plan, RWD. 15. Study on Institutional Assessment for PMGSY in Bihar, The World Bank-GoB Page 49 of 49