Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00006662 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT IBRD-86990 ON A LOAN IN THE AMOUNT OF EURO 45.7 MILLION (US$50 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE GABONESE REPUBLIC FOR THE STATISTICS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT June 20, 2024 Poverty and Equity Global Practice Western and Central Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective December 29, 2023) Currency Unit = CFA Francs (CFAF) CFAF 592 = US$1 US$1 = Euro 0.99 FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 Regional Vice President: Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Cheick Fantamady Kante Regional Director: Abebe Adugna Dadi Practice Manager: Johan A. Mistiaen Task Team Leader(s): Mervy Ever Viboudoulou Vilpoux ICR Main Contributor: Melat Assefa Asfaw, Mervy Ever Viboudoulou Vilpoux ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AFRISTAT Economic and Statistical Observatory of Sub-Saharan Africa (Observatoire économique et statistique d'Afrique subsaharienne) ANBG National Scholarship Agency of Gabon (Agence Nationale des Bourses et Stage) AS Statistics Assistant (Assistant en Statistique) CAPI Computer Aided Personal Interview CN-TIPPEE National Commission for Public Infrastructure Works and Promotion of Small-Scale Enterprises (Commission Nationale des Travaux d'Intérêt Public pour la Promotion de l'Entreprenariat et de l'Emploi) CPF Country Partnership Framework CPI Consumer Price Index CPS Country Partnership Strategy DGS General Directorate of Statistics (Direction Générale de la Statistique) DHS Demographic and Health Survey EGEP Gabonese Survey for Poverty Assessment (Enquete Gabonaise pour l’Evaluation de la Pauvreté) EPVA Plant and Animal Production Surveys (Enquete sur la Production Vegetale et Animale) ESMP Environmental and Social Management Plan FM Financial Management GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Economically Weak Gabonese (Gabonais Economiquement Faibles) GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus HSE Health, Safety, and Environment IAS Engineer of Applied Statistics (Ingenieur d'application de la statistique) ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report ICT Information and Communication Technology INSTAT National Institute of Statistics (Institut National de la Statistique) ISE Statistician Economist (Ingenieur statisticien Economiste) ISR Implementation Status and Results Report ISSEA Institute of Statistics and Economics (Institut Sous-régional de Statistique et d'Economie Appliquée) IT Information Technology ITS Engineering Statisticians (Ingenieur des travaux statistiques) M&E Monitoring and Evaluation NSA National Statistical Agency NSDS National Strategy for the Development of Statistics NSS National Statistical System OP Operational Policy PAD Project Appraisal Document PDO Project Development Objective PIU Project Implementation Unit PSGE Emerging Gabon Strategic Plan (Plan Stratégique Gabon Émergent) RGA Agriculture Census (Recensement Général de l'Agriculture) RGE General Enterprise Census (Recensement General des Entreprises) RGEF Census of Vulnerable Households (Recensement des Gabonais Economiquement Faibles) RGOE Census of Educational Provision (Recensement General de l'offre éducative) SCI Statistical Capacity Index SDG Sustainable Development Goals SHaSA African Union Strategy for the Harmonization of Statistics in Africa SNA System of National Accounts SOP Series of Projects TA Technical Assistance TOC Theory of Change TSS Senior Statistical Technician (Technicien superieur de la Statistique) UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET ................................................................................................................................1 I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES .........................................................5 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL ............................................................................................................. 5 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) ....................................... 10 II. OUTCOME .........................................................................................................................13 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ................................................................................................................ 13 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) .......................................................................................... 13 C. EFFICIENCY ................................................................................................................................ 18 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING....................................................................... 20 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY)............................................................................... 21 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ..................................22 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION....................................................................................... 22 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION ................................................................................ 23 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ...25 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) .............................................................. 25 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE ....................................................... 26 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ............................................................................................................... 27 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .......................................................................................... 28 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................29 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ..............................................................32 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION...........................39 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ...............................................................................42 ANNEX 4. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ....43 ANNEX 5. MAP ..........................................................................................................................45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name P157473 Gabon Statistical Development Project Country Financing Instrument Gabon Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency Republic of Gabon CNTIPPEE Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The development objective of this project is to strengthen the statistical capacity of the Borrower, fill key data gaps, improve statistical production, and enhance statistical dissemination practices. Page 1 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) FINANCING Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,298,530 IBRD-86990 Total 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,298,530 Non-World Bank Financing 0 0 0 Borrower/Recipient 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 Total Project Cost 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,298,530 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing 30-Mar-2017 09-Nov-2017 15-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2021 29-Dec-2023 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 23-Oct-2021 33.99 Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Other Change(s) 31-Oct-2023 44.27 Change in Loan Closing Date(s) KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory Substantial Page 2 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 30-Jun-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 2.27 02 31-Dec-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 11.82 03 06-Jul-2018 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 11.70 04 25-Jan-2019 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 11.70 05 12-Sep-2019 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 15.23 06 08-Apr-2020 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 19.88 07 08-Mar-2021 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 29.67 08 28-Sep-2021 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 33.99 09 27-Apr-2022 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 34.39 10 02-Nov-2022 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 39.93 11 06-Jun-2023 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 40.02 12 29-Dec-2023 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 49.45 SECTORS AND THEMES Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%) Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry 18 Public Administration - Agriculture, Fishing & Forestry 18 Public Administration 69 Central Government (Central Agencies) 69 Information and Communications Technologies 11 ICT Infrastructure 11 Page 3 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) Education 2 Other Education 2 Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Public Sector Management 100 Data Development and Capacity Building 100 Data production, accessibility and use 73 Institutional strengthening and capacity 34 building ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Elisabeth Huybens Cheick Fantamady Kante Director: Marcelo Giugale Abebe Adugna Dadi Practice Manager: Pablo Fajnzylber Johan A. Mistiaen Mervy Ever Viboudoulou Task Team Leader(s): Abdoullahi Beidou Vilpoux ICR Contributing Author: Melat Assefa Asfaw Page 4 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Country Context 1. Gabon is a country located in Central Africa with a surface area of 267,667 km 2. It is one of Sub-Saharan Africa’s few upper-middle-income countries. From 2008 to 2013, real economic growth averaged an impressive 5 to 7 percent per year, but the decline in oil prices and subsequent loss of revenue led to a slowdown, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth falling from 5.6 percent in 2013 to 4.3 percent in 2014, and further declining to 3.9 percent in 2015. Poverty and inequality levels remained high. The population living on less than US$3.10 per day (in 2011 purchasing power parity terms) was measured at 24 percent in 2005. Gabon was ranked 110 (out of 187 countries) in the 2015 Human Development Index report, far below its peers with similar GDP per capita. 2. In 2010, the Government started implementation of the Emerging Gabon Strategic Plan (Plan Stratégique Gabon Émergent, PSGE1) vision 2025 which articulates, among other priorities, the need to strengthen the National Statistical System (NSS). The PSGE recognized the need for frequent data collection and timely dissemination of statistics as drivers for the design and implementation of an evidence-based economic policy agenda. Hence, it aimed to (a) consolidate the legal and institutional framework of the NSS and (b) strengthen its capacity to generate and disseminate good quality—timely, frequent, and policy relevant—data and statistics. Sector Context and National Priorities 3. Statistical capacity in Gabon was weak and declining over time. Gabon’s overall Statistical Capacity Index (SCI) 2 score declined from 47.8 points in 2005 to 36.7 in 2016, placing the country at the eighth lowest among 155 developing countries, far below the Sub-Saharan African average score of 59.9. The low and declining SCI for Gabon reflected deepening gaps in data source; the lagging, low volume, and poor quality of official statistical production; and the outdatedness of most basic data. For example, until 2017, the latest GDP figures produced by the General Directorate of Statistics (Direction Générale de la Statistique, DGS) dated back to 2010. In addition, it had been more than 10 years since the last Gabonese Survey for Poverty Assessment (Enquete Gabonaise pour l’Evaluation de la Pauvrete, EGEP) was carried out, the latest from 2005. Furthermore, the statistical production process was constrained by the lack of qualified staff, poor infrastructure, and an inadequate working environment. 4. A new Statistics Law (loi n°15/2014) was adopted in 2015 and an institutional reform process was under way to establish an autonomous National Statistical Agency (NSA). The law transformed the DGS, which is currently a ministerial department into the NSA—an autonomous entity with the mandate to coordinate the NSS; conduct the decennial population and housing census and the major nationally representative surveys; and produce, disseminate, and archive official economic, demographic, and social statistics. Following the law, all the required regulations and decrees were elaborated and submitted to the Government for approval. The Statistics Law created and organized the NSS in accordance 1 https://www.cafi.org/sites/default/files/2021-02/Gabon_2015_SM%20A_PlanStrategiqueGabonEmergent.pdf. 2 The SCI Score is calculated on an annual basis by the World Bank. The indicator is based on a framework that generally uses information publicly available for most countries to assess three aspects of statistical capacity (statistical practices, collection activities, and data availability) against appropriate benchmarks. A score for each aspect is derived, and an overall score is calculated by combining the scores for the three aspects, giving equal weight to each. The score is scaled to provide a value between 0 and 100; a score of 100 indicates that the country meets all the benchmarks in all three aspects of statistical capacity. More information can be found at http://datatopics.worldbank.org/statisticalcapacity/SCIdashboard.aspx. Page 5 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) with the principles of the African Statistics Charter and the African Union Strategy for the Harmonization of Statistics in Africa (SHaSA). 5. A National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS) for 2011 –2015 to improve statistical capacity was prepared, but only partially implemented due to lack of financial resources. Its main objective was to “build a NSS that would provide users with accessible, unique, objective and regular quantitative information.” The NSDS focused on the following five areas: (a) institutional and organizational reforms; (b) strengthening of human and material resources; (c) mobilization of financial resources; (d) data collection and concerted production of statistical information; and (e) publication, dissemination, and ownership of statistical information. The critical statistical activities outlined in the NSDS including a household expenditure and poverty survey, an agricultural census (Recensement Général de l'Agriculture, RGA), an enterprise census (Recensement Général des Entreprises, RGE), and an informal sector survey were not implemented. Rationale for World Bank Assistance 6. The project aimed to improve the monitoring and evaluation of the PSGE vision 2025. By supporting national capacity in the production and dissemination of statistics, the project aimed to improve evidence-based decision-making, measure development impacts, and foster better governance. The need for more recent statistical information was a recurrent demand constantly expressed by both national and international statistics users, including the Government, private sector, civil society, academics, and development partners. 7. The project aimed to promote the use of improved methodology, filling of key data gaps, and dissemination. The key issues that were to be addressed were the following: (a) improvement of poverty monitoring and evaluation by conducting EGEP in 2017 (EGEP II); (b) filling of data gaps on agriculture statistics by supporting two main data collection activities including RGA in 2018 and annual agricultural production surveys); (c) elimination of the four-year backlog in producing national accounts estimates, updating the methodology in compliance with international standards and best practices, and rebasing the national accounts by incorporating new sources of data; (d) update of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) base year from 2003 to 2017, enhancement of the monthly price data collection operations from 2018 onward by refining the list of products and services, and expanding the geographical market coverage beyond Libreville to three additional cities—Franceville, Port-Gentil, and Oyem; and (e) formulation and adoption of data dissemination and microdata access policies, capacity building to roll out the ‘Accelerated Data Program’ initiative , and provision of free online access to anonymized census and household survey microdata. 8. The project aimed to generate the missing data that was necessary to inform the results focus of the World Bank Group on the twin goals of eradicating extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity. The operation was also aligned with the World Bank Group’s strategic priorities in the Africa region which include helping countries generate more and better-quality poverty and shared prosperity data; develop a model for collaborating with the International Monetary Fund, which has the lead role in National Accounts and, more broadly, build capacity to promote greater use of statistics. Furthermore, the World Bank’s financing was instrumental for the normal functioning of the DGS and its transition to an autonomous entity called NSA, the revision of the regulatory framework governing the NSS, the structure and management of the NSS. Contribution to Higher-Level Objectives 9. The project is fully aligned with the World Bank Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) FY2012 –2016 (Report No. 67343-GA) and the Government’s PSGE. A key action in the PSGE was the development of an NSDS, which was accomplished and supported by the World Bank. The project was designed to support implementation of the NSDS 2011– Page 6 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) 2015, particularly the key activities prioritized in the two-year extended CPS and the PSGE. At the time of project appraisal, only the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and the 2013 population and housing census were undertaken while other activities including the EGEP, agricultural census, enterprise census, and informal sector surveys were not implemented due to lack of financial resources. The CPS supports the PSGE in two strategic thematic areas: (a) increasing Gabon’s competitiveness and employment and (b) supporting vulnerability and resilience. Gender equity complements the strategic thematic areas and is strongly reflected in the project design. It aimed to improve the knowledge of basic service delivery for health and social protection through the development of knowledge repository and statistical analysis and specifically proposed to undertake a new household survey to update key indicators, last measured in 2005, on poverty, gender, youth, health, and social protection. 10. The project was designed to generate the missing data necessary to inform the results focus of the World Bank on the twin goals of eradicating extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity. The operation is also aligned with the World Bank’s strategic priorities in the Africa region, which include helping countries generate more and better-quality poverty and shared prosperity data; develop a model for collaborating with the International Monetary Fund, which has the lead role in national accounts; and more broadly, build capacity to promote greater use of statistics. 11. The project is fully in line with the international conventions and frameworks such as the African Statistics Charter and the SHaSA, which are increasingly valued and recognized as effective mechanisms for subregional integration. The project also builds on the United Nations Council resolution on statistics, which recognizes that weaknesses in countries’ statistical systems will have direct and indirect implications for the well-being of the population and development planning and will be more harmful for segments of the population already vulnerable. Theory of Change (Results Chain) 12. The Project Appraisal Document (PAD) did not describe a Theory of Change (TOC).3 For this Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR), the TOC is constructed ex post and has been retrofitted from the PAD and the project Results Framework and its detailed description. 13. Figure 1 presents project activities, outputs, and outcomes and its long-term expected impact. Activities under project management had an overall impact on all outcomes/objectives and contributed to attainment of the Project Development Objective (PDO). 14. Expectations and critical assumptions for the achievement of the outcomes and considered for the duration of the project are the following: (a) The various project activities cover data collection, production, and dissemination through the implementation of household surveys, improvement of national accounts and price statistics, and agriculture statistics. These initiatives contribute to the achievement of the PDO by filling data gaps. In addition, the project supported the improvement of data access and dissemination by financing the (a) design of the DGS website in line with open data principles and (b) formulation and adoption of data dissemination and microdata access policies, an aspect that is key to enabling evidence-based policy making and social accountability. 3As per Operations Policy and Country Services guidelines, including the TOC became mandatory for PADs as of May 2018. The project was approved by the World Bank’s Board of Directors on March 30, 2017. Page 7 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) (b) It is assumed that students who graduate from the regional statistical schools 4 will join and work for the DGS. (c) It was assumed that CN-TIPPEE will implement the project efficiently and effectively. (d) It was assumed that modernization of physical infrastructure will positively impact the productivity of DGS staff and modernize the work systems for production of better and quality statistics. 15. For the causal relationship between institutional reform and improved capacity to be plausible, it is assumed that there is commitment at the highest government level for statistical reforms, which will lead to the approval and funding of the business plan of the new NSA and the new results-based management system. Figure 1. Results Chain, Gabon Statistical Development Project 4The regional schools are Ecole Nationale Supérieure de la Statistique et d’Économie Appliquée (ENSAE) of Abidjan ; Institute of Statistics and Economics (Institut Sous-régionale de la Statistique et d’Économie Appliquée, ISSEA); Institute for Research, Training, and Demography (Institut de Formation et de Recherche Démographique, IFORD) of Yaoundé; and Université Pr Joseph KI-ZEBO of Ouagadougou. Page 8 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 16. The objective of the project is to strengthen the statistical capacity of the Borrower, fill key data gaps, improve statistical production, and enhance statistical dissemination practices. 17. The project was approved by the World Bank’s Management on March 30, 2017, and the Financial Agreement was signed on April 18, 2017. The project became effective on November 9, 2017, and closed on December 29, 2023. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 18. The key expected outcomes as captured in the PDO were the following:  Outcome 1: Strengthened capacity of the Borrower to fill key data gaps and improve statistical production.  Outcome 2: Strengthened capacity of the Borrower to enhance statistical dissemination practices. 19. Progress toward the PDO was to be monitored through the following indicators:  Increase in Gabon’s SCI score  Number of welfare, agriculture, economic, and business surveys and censuses conducted  Improved national accounts and price statistics  Number of survey and census microdata files freely available online. 20. At the intermediate level, progress and accomplishments were to be measured in data collection, processing, and dissemination performance as well as skills development by the following indicators:  Number of staff at the statistics office with improved skills5  Number of women of the statistics office with improved skills  Data collection of the next welfare survey is completed6  Data collection of the next DHS is completed  Base year of the CPI is updated  Increase in number of qualified technical staff working on national accounts at the statistics office. 21. Annex 1 describes in detail the project’s Results Framework and key project outputs. Components 22. The project consisted of three components at appraisal. 55Cumulative number of DGS staff that benefited from capacity-building trainings on statistics or related domains with the project’s support. 6Data collection of the EGEP III was established as an intermediate indicator, while its forerunner, EGEP II, was consolidated with other surveys under a PDO indicator. This is to make the DGS adhere to the international standard requiring household surveys to be conducted welfare surveys every three years. Therefore, in accordance with the project's duration, the subsequent welfare survey was anticipated to take place during the project's implementation phase. Page 9 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) 23. Component 1: Improved Data Collection, Statistical Production, and Dissemination (US$32.80 million at appraisal; US$33.0 million actual). It covered four main areas: (a) national accounts and real sector statistics, (b) welfare monitoring statistics, (c) agricultural statistics, and (d) data access and dissemination. 24. Component 2: Build Technical Capacity and Modernize Infrastructure (US$13.50 million at appraisal; US$12.7 million actual). This component aimed to strengthen human capital and modernize infrastructure to finalize the institutional reform under way as part of the planned implementation of the approved decree creating the NSA. The project intended to support these efforts through training of staff, financing of scholarships for students, and financing of the renovation and refurbishment of the future headquarters of the NSA. The project also planned to finance the establishment of a modern and functional data center to facilitate the implementation of the ongoing modernization of data collection processes using new technologies. 25. Component 3: National Statistical System Institutional Reform and Project Management Capacity Building (US$3.57 million at appraisal; US$4 million actual). This component aimed to support implementation of the statistical institutional reform efforts and ensure that there is adequate capacity for project management. It supported the activities related to (a) the development of the next NSDS and financing technical assistance (TA) to develop, implement, and monitor the agency’s annual business plans; (b) the recruitment of a senior statistics adviser to support the establishment of the NSA; (c) the financing of TA to develop a results-based management system; and (d) statistical coordination activities through the National Commission for Statistical Information. In addition, the component financed the National Commission for Public Infrastructure Works and Promotion of Small-Scale Enterprises (Commission Nationale des Travaux d’Intérêt Public pour la Promotion de l’Entreprenariat et de l’Emploi, CN-TIPPEE) to manage all nontechnical aspects of the project. Furthermore, funding was provided to the DGS to organize user satisfaction surveys, aimed at strengthening dialogue with the users of statistics and assessing the impact of the project activities. B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) 26. The project was restructured twice. The first restructuring was approved on October 23, 2021. The second restructuring was approved on November 1, 2023. Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets 27. The PDO was not revised throughout the duration of the project. Revised PDO Indicators 28. During the first restructuring, the calculation methods were revised for PDO indicator 1 ‘Increase in Gabon’s SCI score’ to only include the following indicators: agriculture census, child malnutrition, child mortality, CPI base year, health survey, human immunodeficiency virus disease (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, immunization, income poverty, maternal health, national accounts base year, poverty survey, and primary completion will be measured, while the rest of the indicators (access to water, balance of payments manual in use, external debt reporting status, gender equality, government finance accounting, import and export price indexes, industrial production index, methodology assessment of statistical capacity, national immunization coverage, overall average, per capita GDP growth, periodicity and timeliness assessment of statistical capacity, population census, source data assessment of statistical capacity, special data dissemination standard, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) reporting, vital registration system coverage) will be kept as constant. 29. For PDO indicator 2 ‘Improved national accounts and price statistics’, the calculation method was also revised to consider the timeliness dissemination of the CPI. This indicator will be measured through the following improvements: Page 10 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) national accounts timeliness, so that by end of year N, the provisional accounts of year N-1 are made available (10 percent); updated CPI year base (30 percent); timely dissemination of CPI (10 percent); updated year base of the GDP (30 percent), and use of the 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA) (20 percent). 30. For the PDO indicator 3, ‘number of welfares, agriculture, economic and business surveys and censuses conducted’, the target increased from 10 to 15. Revised Components 31. Under the project’s first restructuring, some new activities were added under Components 1 and 2. Under Component 1, the added activities included the high frequency phone surveys for COVID-19 monitoring, Census of Vulnerable Households (Recensement des Gabonais Economiquement Faibles, RGEF), and school census. Under Component 2, the project would support the purchase and renovation of a building for the DGS, replacing the initial renovation of an assigned office building. Other Changes 32. The first restructuring also led to the (a) extension of the closing date by 22 months, from December 31, 2021, to October 31, 2023, and (b) reallocation of funds between disbursement categories. 33. During the second restructuring, the project’s closing date was extended from October 31, 2023, to December 29, 2023. 34. The project aimed to support the transformation of the DGS to an NSA based on the 2014 Statistics Law. However, during project implementation, the Government amended this law to instead establish a National Statistical Institute (Institut Nationale de la Statistique, INSTAT). Therefore, the project supported the amendment of the 2014 Statistics Law to the 2022 Statistics Law (loi n°016/2022) and the transformation of the DGS to an INSTAT. Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change First Restructuring 35. The reason for revising the calculation method of the PDO indicator 1, increase in Gabon’s SCI score, was that some of the attributes under this composite indicator are not accounted for by the project and it is therefore difficult to measure their progress. The revision would allow the project to focus more on its attributes and make it more realistic to measure progress. 36. The calculation method was revised for the PDO indicator 2 to consider the timely dissemination of the CPI. This PDO indicator used the percentage-based approach to measure the different dimensions of national accounts and reflect them under one PDO indicator. This method allows for the measurement of various improvements as part of a single indicator, rather than separating each progress as a distinct yes or no measure. This can be beneficial for capturing the overall progress in a more integrated and holistic manner. 37. The target was increased for the PDO indicator 3 to account for the additional high frequency surveys that were conducted under the project. During the COVID-19 pandemic, while all countries implemented social distancing measures and mobility restrictions, Gabon stopped all on-going fieldworks related to statistical operations. Through the establishment of a call center to collect data on the impact of COVID 19 on the living conditions of households and on Gabonese businesses, Gabon planned to conduct a significant number of waves of the COVID-19 high frequency survey. Page 11 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) These high frequency surveys, although a Computer Aided Telephone Interview (CATI), follow the same principle as a traditional household or business surveys. Their implementation includes similar phases including for example preparatory phase (questionnaire design, sampling design and CATI data entry program), a data collection phase (on around 2000 households across the country), and a data processing and exploitation phase. These high-frequency surveys help strengthen the DGS's capacity to carry out rapid surveys in times of crisis that meet the information needs of decision- makers. Given the complexity (multitopic survey questionnaire, sampling strategy and Computer Aided Personal Interview [CAPI]) program of these surveys and their use, each wave is given the same weight as a traditional survey. 38. Under Component 1, improving data collection, statistical production, and dissemination, the COVID-19 pandemic caused significant delays in implementing planned surveys. This included EGEP III, RGE and surveys, and agriculture surveys, which were all critical activities to update the national accounts system. A restructuring with a closing date extension would allow these surveys to be completed on time, update the national accounts base year, and migrate from the 1993 SNA to the 2008 SNA. 39. Under Component 2, building technical capacity and modernizing infrastructure, the project aimed to implement capacity-building activities that were delayed because of COVID-19 pandemic travel restrictions, resume international and regional training activities, and allow students whose studies had been paused due to the pandemic finish their courses. The Government requested the purchase of a building for the DGS, to renovate and repurpose it as needed because (a) the buildings that were initially planned to be rehabilitated were assumed to be ineligible for the activity due to safety and safeguard issues and (b) the building that was then assigned to be rehabilitated was already occupied by another government entity, National Scholarship Agency of Gabon (Agence Nationale des Bourses et Stage, ANBG). The purchase and rehabilitation activity also required additional time to be finalized. 40. Under Component 3, National Statistical System Institutional Reform, the 22-month extension would allow the completion of the already started project activities to meet the PDO indicators. A new Statistics Act was adopted by the parliament to create an INSTAT instead of the initially planned NSA because this was a more common organizational structure in the region. The act was waiting to be passed by the Senate before implementation could begin. 41. There was reallocation of funds between disbursement categories. This is because since project effectiveness, funds under category 2, scholarships, were never disbursed and were imputed in the disbursement category 1. To facilitate expenses under the same activity, the disbursement for category 2 was reduced to compensate for the disbursement and commitment on the scholarship program, and the remaining funds were reallocated to category 1. Funds were then reallocated to cover expenses for new and planned activities. Second Restructuring 42. The second extension of the project’s closing date from October 31, 2023, to December 29, 2023, was necessary to allow the Government to (a) finalize rehabilitation of the DGS facilities, (b) disseminate statistical products, and (c) allow the World Bank financial management (FM) team to conduct a review of the project expenses. The political context in Gabon over the three months preceding the closing date did not facilitate implementation and completion of the project’s activities and August 2023 was marked by the presidential election campaign and the presidential election. The coup d’état, which took place on August 30, 2023, triggered World Bank OP 7.30 on Dealing with De Facto Governments, leading to a pause in project disbursement and contact with the client. If the project closed as initially planned, it would have severely impacted the implementation of planned project activities since it was a time when all activities were being expedited and prepared for completion. 43. Both restructurings did not have any implication on the Theory of Change constructed ex post. Page 12 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) II. OUTCOME A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating 44. The PDO has been highly relevant throughout the life of the project and remained so at project completion. The project is directly aligned with the new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) FY23 –FY27 (Report No. 174105-GA). Through CPF Objective 2 ‘Increased Access to Basic Services’, the World Bank intends to build a solid and flexible social protection system. Well-designed and targeted safety nets, transfers, and other social programs can facilitate equity and social inclusion by empowering vulnerable population groups, especially women. The project is improving the robustness of the economically weak Gabonese (Gabonais Economiquement Faibles, GEF) registry, which is the primary registry used for targeting Government social protection programs. The project’s efforts include the development of a new targeting methodology based on the poverty line and its implementation. EGEP II was used to select criteria aimed at increasing the relevance of the GEF list for targeting. To further support the establishment of a more equitable social protection program in Gabon, the project piloted the RGEF in the city of Libreville, which aimed at identifying beneficiaries of the GEF title using the new targeting methodology. In addition, the project financed the census mapping of Libreville, while the rest of the country will be completed by the Government. Once the mapping is finalized, it will provide the basis for the next population census. 45. The project was designed to meet the specific needs of the population and the Government , by supporting the (a) improvement of the quality of data collected and their frequency, timeliness, and dissemination; (b) improvement of the technical capacities of the DGS to collect, analyze, and disseminate statistical data; (c) improvement of the DGS's infrastructure and logistical capacities; and (d) the DGS’s effort to create an autonomous entity. 46. The relevance of the PDO is rated High. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome 47. Over the course of the project, the capacity of the DGS has been strengthened to fill key data gaps, improve statistical production, and enhance statistical dissemination practices. The following paragraphs describe in detail the key achievements Based on the two intended outcomes as described in paragraph 18. 48. Table 1 provides a detailed assessment of the PDO and intermediate indicators. Table 1. Assessment of Achievement under Each PDO and Intermediate Indicator Indicators Achievements PDO Indicators Outcome 1: Strengthened capacity of the Borrower to fill key data gaps and improve statistical production. Increase in Gabon's Achievement: 58.9 (90.6 percent). Statistical Capacity Index The SCI value increased from 36.7 in 2017 to 58.9 in 2023, with the release and dissemination of the score (number) (Baseline: DHS III in which indicators related to malnutrition, child mortality, maternal health, HIV, and hepatitis 36.7; End target: 65.0) are available. The DHS III key indicator reports updated for 6 out of the 12 sub-indicators affected by the project. Page 13 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) Indicators Achievements The World Bank now measures a country’s statistical performance through the Statistical Performance Indicator (SPI) score7 which replaces the SCI. It is worth noting that Gabon’s SPI score has significantly increased from appraisal stage in 2017 (28) till the latest SPI score in 2022 (42.82). Target substantially achieved (90.6%) Number of welfare, Achievement: 23 (153 percent). agriculture, economic and The project carried out several surveys and censuses: business surveys, and (a) Under poverty and living conditions: EGEP II, survey on the impact of COVID-19 on households (10 censuses conducted waves of surveys completed), and DHS III; two rounds of school census 2019 and 2020–2021; RGEF and (number) (Baseline: 2; census mapping which were partly financed by the project are in progress. End target: 15) (b) Under agriculture surveys: RGA and Plant and Animal Production Surveys ( Enquete sur la Production Vegetale et Animale, EPVA) (c) Under business surveys, two surveys on the impact of COVID-19 on informal production units and one survey on formal production units; RGE); and Survey on Trade and Transport Margins are available. DGS website link: https://instatgabon.org/en/search?_token=FSybvfMqeO8NUlKSloLsty1rf4MXgTu0YaT3Ndy7&q=SNDS DGS data portal link: https://gabon.opendataforafrica.org/ Achievement exceeded target (153 %) Improved national Achievement: 40 (40 percent). accounts and price This indicator was measured as follows: updated CPI year base (30%); timely dissemination of CPI statistics (percentage) (10%); improvement of national accounts timeliness so that by end of year N the provisional accounts (Baseline: 0; End target: of year N-1 are made available (10%); updated year base of the GDP (30%); and use of the 2008 SNA 100) (20%). CPI year base has been updated. The base year of the CPI has been updated to 2018. The CPI survey took place between 2017 and 2018. It covered Libreville and nine provinces. The activity was conducted with TA from the Economic and Statistical Observatory of Sub-Saharan Africa (Observatoire économique et statistique d’Afrique subsaharienne, AFRISTAT). Timely dissemination of CPI has been achieved. The monthly CPI series from December 2017 to September 2023 has been published. The production and publication of the monthly CPI is regular, following international publication standards, where CPI of the previous month is available latest on the 10th day of the coming month. Improvement of national accounts timeliness has not been achieved. The national accounts series from 2010 to 2018 under the 1993 SNA have been produced but was put on hold for release. Despite the efforts made in filling the gap in the production of the national accounts, there is still delay in their publication. Furthermore, the accounts from 2019 to 2022 have not been finalized. The base year of the GDP has not been updated. The change in the base year depends on availability of the following: RGE, EPVA, EGEP III, the population and housing census, and three specific surveys (trade and transport margins, non-profit institutions, and the survey on business structures). Out of these, RGE, EPVA, and survey on trade and transport margins are completed with the support of the project, while the others are ongoing (EGEP III and the population and housing census were partly financed by the project). The use of the 2008 SNA has not been completed, as this was an activity tied to the GDP rebasing. However, work is ongoing for the rebasing of the national accounts and their migration to the 2008 SNA. 7 The SPI framework includes five pillars which are: i) data use, ii) data services, iii) data products, iv) data sources, and v) data infrastructure. Page 14 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) Indicators Achievements Even if this PDO indicator is not fully achieved, all necessary surveys and censuses required for rebasing national accounts have been completed. Additionally, the DGS team is collaborating with the European Union under the Pan African Statistics Program to advance the agenda on migration and rebasing of national accounts. Target partly achieved (40%) Outcome 2: Strengthened capacity of the Borrower to enhance statistical dissemination practices. Number of survey and Achievement: 10 (125 percent). census microdata files freely available online The project financed the implementation and publication of eight surveys and censuses. Microdata are (number) (Baseline: 0; available for RGA, price statistics, EGEP II, COVID-19, RGE, school censuses, international trade data, End target: 8) food balance surveys, DHS III, and vital statistics. All these are found at the following link: https://gabon.opendataforafrica.org/data/#menu=topic. Achievement exceeded target (120%) Intermediate Results Indicators Number of staff at the Achievement: 130 (162.5 percent), of which 56 women (350 percent). Statistics Office with improved skills (number) 130 people benefited from capacity building, including 56 women (representing 43.1%). The project (Baseline: 0; End target: supported implementation of a training and skill enhancement program for existing staff. With the 80) project’s support, the DGS developed a training plan for 2020–2023 and partially executed it. Capacity building and training were provided to 130 DGS staff (56 females) as part of the preparation of Of which number of production surveys on livestock and animal production. Other trainings included economic data women (Number) analysis and data trends (case of price indexes); evaluation of databases; and the survey related to the (Baseline: 0; End target: determination of prices in urban areas, data production, cleaning, and analysis. AFRISTAT carried out 16) most of the training planned for the DGS staff. An agreement has been signed with the ANBG to grant scholarships to statistics students and with the Ministry of the Civil Service to recruit statisticians after they graduate from statistical training schools. Target fully achieved (162.5 percent and 350 percent) Data collection of the Achievement: No (0 percent). next welfare survey is completed (yes/no) The project financed EGEP II for 2017 and the preparatory phase for EGEP III 2021 –2025. This indicator (Baseline: No; End Target: was considered achieved for 2017 to 2022. Given the delay in the implementation of EGEP III, the Yes) indicator rating went back to 0 by the closing date. This indicator would have been achieved if data collection for the EGEP III was fully implemented. Target not achieved (0 percent) Data collection of the Achievement: Yes (100 percent). next DHS is completed (yes/no) (Baseline: No; The project financed DHS III covering 2019–2021. The final report has been disseminated in July 2023. End Target: Yes) Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, data collection was carried out in two phases: (a) the first phase was officially launched on November 23, 2019, and (b) the second phase was carried out from June 7 to October 30, 2021. Target fully achieved (100 percent) Base year of the CPI is Achievement: Yes (100 percent) updated (yes/no) (Baseline: No; End Target: The previous CPI covered only Libreville district, which included Owendo and Akanda, and the base Yes) year, 2004, was very old and several assumptions underlying its production were no longer valid. Due to the project, the CPI calculation has improved with a change in the base year, from 2004 to 2018, the geographical coverage has also improved integrating urban and rural areas nationally. In addition, the Page 15 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) Indicators Achievements household basket was updated by integrating, for example, new products that are related to information and communication technology (ICT). Target fully achieved (100 percent) Increase in the number of Achievement: 14 (175 percent). qualified technical staff The team dedicated to national accounts is composed of 14 technical staff, including 7 junior working on national accountants gradually recruited by the project. accounts at the statistics Achievement exceeded target (175 %). office (number) (Baseline: 2; End target: 8) Project Achievements beyond the Results Indicators 49. The project had other achievements beyond the Results Framework. For example, (a) additional surveys and census were conducted, (b) the human resources capacity for producing and disseminating statistics was enhanced, (c) institutional reform activities were carried out, (d) the dissemination of statistics was significantly enhanced, and (e) the existing DGS premises were rehabilitated. Additional Surveys and Census Activities 50. The project helped conduct the Census of Educational Provision ( Recensement General d’ l'offre éducative, RGOE) focused on the enumeration of all the structures of the education system in the nine provinces of Gabon. The aim was to identify, locate, and fill in the administrative information regularly provided concerning the supply and demand of the education system. Two editions of this operation have been carried out (RGOE 2019 and RGOE 2021). For the calculation of the indicators, the studies considered data from the 2013 population and housing census, sectoral studies, and other ministries concerned with education issues. Both census results are available online (https://gabon.opendataforafrica.org/data/#topic=Education). Human Resources Capacity for Producing and Disseminating Statistics Has Been Enhanced 51. The project financed scholarships including tuitions and stipends for Gabonese candidates who successfully pass the competitive entrance examination to study abroad in regional statistics schools. The project aimed to increase the pool of DGS technical staff with formal degrees in critical statistical fields. The project supported information and awareness raising sessions in six provinces of Gabon to prepare and recruit young students to compete for enrollment in statistics schools to be future economists, statistical engineers, and statistical analysts. The project financed preparatory sessions in Libreville and Franceville specifically tailored to equip candidates for the competitive entrance exams of the regional statistics schools. This preparatory activity bolstered Gabonese candidates’ likelihood of excelling in these exams. Throughout the project’s duration, scholarships were awarded to 18 students (2 females) to study in these regional schools. The programs they pursued were as follows: five studied to become senior statistical technicians (Technicien superieur de la Statistique, TSS), three aimed to become `engineering statisticians (Ingenieur des travaux statistiques, ITS) and engineer of applied statistics (Ingenieur d'application de la statistique, IAS), two studied to become statistician economists (Ingenieur statisticien Economiste, ISE), seven specialized in demography, and one aimed to become a statistics assistant (Assistant en Statistique, AS). Two students (ISE and AS) were partial scholarship holders and are being supported by the ANBG to graduate in 2024. Of the 16 graduates, one has been successfully employed by the Government, and the remaining 15 are currently undergoing the hiring process. Page 16 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) Institutional Reform Activities were Carried Out 52. The project provided TA to help the DGS prepare for the migration to an INSTAT. Specifically, the following draft texts were reviewed and validated: (a) decree setting out the attributions, organization, and functioning of INSTAT; (b) organizational chart of INSTAT and INSTAT staff regulations; (c) decree on the organization and operating procedures of the NSS; (d) decree setting out the attributions, composition, organization, and functioning of the NCSI; (e) text on the procedures for requesting and granting prior authorization for a survey or statistical census (statistical visa); (f) text on the modalities for the provision of microdata by the structures of the NSS; and (g) decree setting out the attributions, organization, and operation of the Statistical Fund. These texts, introduced into the signature process, are expected to be adopted by the Government. 53. Additionally, the project supported the DGS to draft staff regulations and a training and recruitment plan. An asset management service was set up at the DGS and the purchase, allocation, and use of materials and equipment have now been streamlined through the development of standard operating procedures at the DGS. 54. Furthermore, the project supported the development of the NSDS for 2023–2025. Dissemination of Statistics Has Been Significantly Enhanced 55. The project supported the modernization of the DGS website including its open data portal, where all recent and past survey results and their microdata are available. A data dissemination strategy was developed as part of the NSDS and includes guidelines and action plans to modernize the Gabonese statistical information system. 56. In addition to the microdata that are available for all major survey operations that were conducted, the following publications are also online on the DGS website:8 Production of the Bulletin and Foreign Trade Indices, Production of the Wholesale Price Index for Building Materials ( Production de l'Indice des Prix de Gros des Matériaux de Construction), and demographic projections. 57. Several communication activities were carried out to disseminate the DGS’s statistical achievements. Results of the RGA, RGOE I, EGEP II, and DHS III were distributed to the relevant ministries, published in the local Gabonese newspapers, and discussed in round tables on statistics on Gabonese television. Additionally, seminars were organized with Gabonese employers and civil societies to disseminate the results of surveys and censuses. Additionally, the project helped regularly organize a statistics dissemination event on African Statistics Day and the first edition of the Gabon statistical dissemination event in December 2023. Existing DGS Premises Were Rehabilitated 58. The project financed the modernization and equipment of the existing DGS premises. Three DGS buildings were renovated and equipped with office and computer equipment. This was to address the immediate needs of the DGS staff to work in a safe and up-to-standard offices. Before the renovation the buildings were dilapidated; the computers, printers, and cartography rooms were not functional; and meeting rooms, archiving, storage and other common facilities were not up to standard. 8 https://instatgabon.org/en/search?_token=Efg1gzaPwWOdXmIsQ8Nt4aRv5qepDjS56CJQ6xAo&q=gabon. Page 17 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating 59. The DGS capacity has been improved to collect, produce, and disseminate data for evidence-based policy making. The project supported institutional capacity strengthening, human resources development, and basic infrastructure needed to strengthen the capacity of DGS while collecting, processing, analyzing, and disseminating official statistics. These are reflected in the intermediate indicators, of which five out of six have been achieved. 60. Two targets out of the four on the PDO indicators have been reached and exceeded, while the foundations for achieving the remaining outstanding PDO indicators have been established. Additionally, five out of six of the intermediate indicators are also achieved. 61. Therefore, the overall efficacy of the project is rated Substantial. C. EFFICIENCY Assessment of Efficiency and Rating Economic Analysis 62. Official statistics, data production, and analysis are assumed to be public goods, and therefore the project does not lend itself to conventional economic cost-benefit analysis. As public goods, official statistics in Gabon have historically been financed from Government revenue and through contributions from development partners but with no expected direct financial return. 63. The economic analysis for this project considered the counterfactual without a World Bank funded statistical project. While the Government’s demand for improved statistical capacity and filling data gaps is clear, without this project the capacity of the country’s NSS would have remained limited and major data gaps, with respect to poverty, shared prosperity, employment, and agricultural data, would have taken considerably more time to fill. In the unlikely case that the country managed to implement these surveys without World Bank support, data quality may be low, particularly in the case of welfare and agricultural surveys. In addition, capacity within the DGS would remain limited with large dependence on the expertise of hired external consultants. As a result, without access to better statistics, the Government and other decisions makers would have continued to be limited in having better idea before making decisions. In contrast, the project activities helped them have better economic and social analysis which in turn would have led to more efficient and effective decisions. 64. The benefits of the project come from the strengthened capacity of the country’s NSS. The DGS and NSS staff capacity has been improved to conduct large-scale statistical operations through on-the-job and focused training on statistical methodologies and analysis. The DGS now has an improved and upgraded office facility, IT equipment, and software. It has also more field data collection capability. EGEP II provided updated figures on poverty and living conditions of the population and the data were used by the World Bank to conduct the 2020 poverty assessment. The Government also benefited from these data because it can make evidence-based decisions. Researchers and students are using the data to conduct research. DHS III will allow the Government and users to access a reliable and up-to-date database to be used in the development, implementation, monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of development policies and programs related to the health and living conditions of the population. 65. The DGS’s capacity for producing better-quality and timely national accounts and price data has been strengthened. Delays in the production of national accounts have been reduced, with the production of final national Page 18 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) accounts for 2010 to 2018 under the 1993 SNA. The project improved the existing CPI by expanding its geographical coverage. The project supported the closure of important gaps in socioeconomic and macroeconomic statistics through the implementation of the national poverty survey and component surveys for the calculation of national accounts. Overall, these activities led to a more informed assessment of the socioeconomic situation in the country, provided effective M&E of past development policies, and created space for informed and evidence-based policy making. The elaboration of the second NSDS helped define the main areas of interventions and a detailed budgeted action plan for statistical reforms over 2023–2025. 66. The cost of survey per household was higher in comparison to countries that conducted the same surveys in the region. The average cost of survey per household in Gabon was US$822 for EGEPII, while the cost in the Republic of Congo was US$203, Benin (US$243), Niger (US$311), and Mali (US$331) and in the Democratic Republic of Congo (US$450). Since this survey was conducted 15 years after the last one and therefore the cost was relatively elevated than the other countries in the region. For example, paper-based questionnaires were transitioned to digital systems because EGEP II was carried out using a CAPI-type collection based on the use of tablets and computers. This helped avoid the use of paper questionnaires and reduce long delays for data entry after field work and data processing. Additionally, the DGS had to purchase vehicles and other necessary survey equipment to carry out the activities. 67. Overall statistical data production quality has been improved at the DGS. For example, data collection of the prices was modernized with the purchase and use of tablets, and since 2019, the harmonized CPI is collected digitally on a monthly basis and is publicly available on the DGS website. 68. Enhancements to the physical infrastructure of the DGS have upgraded the working conditions within the existing premises. These improvements have not only boosted daily productivity but have also provided interim benefits for the DGS's operations, pending the construction of a new building complex as part of the new regional project (more description under risk to development outcome section of this ICR). The project has helped the DGS purchase several types of IT equipment including desktops, and laptops that will help improve the quality of future data collections. Despite these advancements, the planned operationalization of a data center did not materialize, and the planned ICT system enhancements were not fully realized, except for the DGS website upgrade and purchase of tablets for surveys. This website upgrade has enabled the efficient hosting and dissemination of the survey activities carried out by the DGS since 2010. 69. The projects contribution to human capital development has economic benefits. The technical capacity and expertise of the DGS staff has been improved. DGS personnel are now better equipped to deliver higher quality services, which is anticipated to increase user satisfaction. The retention of knowledge within the local workforce, who are engaged in large statistical projects, will foster project and survey continuity through ingrained institutional understanding. Additionally, the continued efforts to increase the number of statistics technicians in Gabon through provision of scholarships will help increase the number of experts in the local job market. Over time, this is expected to diminish the reliance on external consultants for technical tasks at the DGS, will save consultancy fees, travel and accommodation and will bolster in-house productivity with improved statistical output, analysis, and dissemination. Aspects of Design and Implementation 70. The project was linked with the country national priorities and beneficiaries needs. During the project’s design, the Bank held discussions with the DGS management and the Government to identify their needs. The project was developed based on the NSDS 2011-2015, which identified the country's needs in terms of strengthening the NSS. In addition, the project supported the development of the NSDS 2023-2025, which identifies the country’s needs over this period, some of which are consistent with the project’s activities. Page 19 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) 71. The PDO is realistic and clear. The project took a holistic approach to building capacity of DGS while ensuring that essential data collection, processing, and dissemination were included. The project is built upon lessons learned from similar statistical capacity-building activities in the region. It combined methodological improvements through TA and training, equipment, and ICT upgrading. The design of the project was in line with international best practices on poverty and living standards survey as well as on prices and national account data improvement. In addition, the project addressed the long-term needs of the DGS by funding staff development, supporting its transition to an autonomous entity, and improving its infrastructure. 72. A midterm review (MTR) was carried out in November 2020, three years after the project took effect. It rated the project’s performance as mixed. For example, although the project disbursed the largest amount of funds in the year prior to the MTR, progress towards the development objective was rated as 'Moderately Satisfactory' due to delays in activities across all components. Similarly, the project's fiduciary performance and M&E systems were rated as 'Moderately Satisfactory.' Based on these findings, the MTR recommended the first restructuring of the project to enhance the Results Framework for more accurate measurement of project progress and to propose an extension of the project's closing date. 73. The main causes of inefficiencies and delays were the following: (a) the absence of the Project Steering Committee, whose role was to supervise, control, monitor, and evaluate the project’s implementation; (b) the lack of a dedicated team at the CN-TIPPEE for project management, which was not set up at the start of the project but only four years after project effectiveness; (c) the lack of proper contract management, partly led by the Project Implementation Unit (PIU), leading to further back and forth with service providers and the DGS; (d) the high turnover of technical directors and general directors of the DGS, which delayed the implementation of the census and survey activities; (e) the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused significant delays in implementing planned surveys due to travel restriction; (f) lack of decision- making on the part of the Government to implement rehabilitation activities in the DGS premises. 74. Besides the initial delays, the project experienced further setbacks towards its conclusion due to a political crisis in the country. In August 2023, this crisis triggered World Bank OP 7.30 on Dealing with De Facto Governments and as a result, the flow of disbursement from the World Bank was halted for about six months. Despite these challenges, the project managed to make considerable headway. Efforts to rehabilitate were accelerated and completed, the mapping for the census was completed, agricultural surveys were carried out, the RGEF was conducted for Libreville and data dissemination events were organized. After the OP 7.30 was lifted, roughly 20% of the total funds allocated to the project were disbursed. 75. Given the above justifications, the project efficiency is rated Modest. D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING 76. The PDO remains aligned with Gabon’s and the World Bank’s priorities and was consistent with managing for evidence-based policy making in the country. The project provided support to the Government ’s NSDS reform plan with the objective of making the DGS more efficient in collecting, producing, and disseminating official statistics. 77. The DGS’s capacity to conduct large-scale statistical operations has improved. The database and results from these operations are disseminated and are being used by the Government, development partners, and researchers/students. 78. With the relevance of the PDO rated High, the efficacy of achievement of the PDO rated Substantial, and efficiency rated Modest, the overall outcome of the project is rated Moderately Satisfactory. Page 20 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) Gender 79. The project collected poverty, demographic, and health data that allowed for the disaggregation of statistics by gender. The synthesis report ‘Analysis of household living conditions in Gabon in 2017’, written by the Government using EGEP II, contained gender statistics. In addition, DHS III provided information with gender consideration. A ‘Report of final results on the gender dimension’ using the agricultural survey was also produced. These types of gender statistics will be useful for Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) monitoring. In addition, female staff benefited from training and scholarship as part of the human resource capacity-building activities. Institutional Strengthening 80. The project supported the new Statistics Law enacted in September 2022 and the institutional reform process that is under way to establish an autonomous INSTAT. Following the law, the project supported the preparation of all the needed regulations and decrees, which were submitted to the Government for approval. Mobilizing Private Sector Financing 81. The project did not mobilize private sector financing. It supported activities involved in the generation and provision of statistical products that are public in nature. These offer limited opportunities for revenue generation because they are financed by public funds and official development assistance. Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity 82. The project contributed to poverty reduction and shared prosperity. To fight poverty in all its dimensions and boost shared prosperity, policy makers need credible information on the nature and extent of poverty and inequality, their root causes, and social consequences. The project supported the implementation of EGEP II, which provided updated figures on poverty. Data from this survey were extensively used in the 2020 World Bank’s Gabon Poverty Assessment Report.9 Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts 83. In addition, the project supported the implementation of a survey on the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on households (10 waves of surveys were completed). 84. The project facilitated collaboration of the DGS with AFRISTAT (technical training for DGS and NSS staff); ISSEA (preparation of students to qualify for regional statistics programs); Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (while conducting the RGA); ICF Macro (the consultancy firm that conducts DHS surveys); and UNESCO (for preparation of the school census) which was fruitful. It helped the DGS standardize collaboration with these and other similar institutions. 85. When conducting the monthly CPI enumeration, the enumerators on the field were the first step in the decentralization of the statistics office and laid the basis for a decentralized DGS and statistical system. 9 https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/879861593485185332/pdf/Gabon-Poverty-Assessment.pdf. Page 21 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION 86. The implementation arrangement was built upon on the IBRD practice in Gabon at the time and was structured around two organizational levels. The DGS oversaw the overall technical implementation of the project’s activities. The nontechnical implementation aspects of the project were managed by the CN-TIPPEE, which was the PIU responsible for implementation of all IBRD-financed projects in Gabon. It was directed by a Permanent Secretary. The CN-TIPPEE provided fiduciary and environmental and social risk management support. It was planned that a dedicated project management team, headed by a deputy coordinator, would be recruited and wholly funded by the project and would report to the Permanent Secretary. Additionally, counterparts from the DGS side were assigned to work with the PIU to learn and build their capacity in project management and fiduciary aspects. 87. A Project Steering Committee was to be set up to supervise the project’s implementation. This committee was supposed to supervise, promote, monitor, support, control, and evaluate implementation of the project. This committee was also to be responsible for the management and coordination of this operation, particularly for planning, budgetary forecasts, control, and reporting of activities. Besides the DGS, the committee was supposed to include representatives from all the direct beneficiaries, especially the ministries of agriculture and education. Despite the preparation of administrative documents setting up the committee, it was never put in place. 88. The project components are linked and contributed to the achievement of the PDO. The first component focuses on improving data collection, statistical production, and dissemination. The second component focuses on human capacity building and infrastructure development, which contributes to improving the technical and physical capacity of the DGS to conduct large-scale surveys and deliver reliable and timely statistics. The third component is dedicated to institutional reform and project management to ensure that the new NSA and the new statistical coordination council are efficiently operational. The activities have been planned sequentially with appropriate timing. However, they were disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic and the political crisis. 89. A well-designed Results Framework supported the M&E system. A core set of PDO indicators and intermediate indicators with baselines and targets was agreed on with the Government during project preparation. 90. The project adopted strategical mitigation measures to foster sustainable production of quality data. Given the weak institutional and technical capacity of the DGS, strong mitigation measures were adopted, including support for institutional reform, training programs, and hands-on learning by working alongside qualified external statistical experts and consultants. Given the lack of funding to carry out statistical activities, the project provided resources to implement the first NSDS, which included institutional reforms and large-scale surveys that generate priority data demanded by policy makers and the public. 91. To mitigate fiduciary risks, the CN-TIPPEE was chosen as the implementing entity of the project. It is a national entity, placed under the Ministry of Economy, implementing all the projects funded by the World Bank in Gabon. At the time, the World Bank portfolio in Gabon was limited to six projects including this one and CN-TIPPEE was the only entity with experience in World Bank projects. Page 22 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION Factors Subject to Government/Implementing Entity Control 92. Political commitment and ownership of the project by key stakeholders were particularly limited. There was limited coordination and project ownership of various project stakeholders. Project management was organized to involve sectoral partners (agriculture, health, education, and economy) in all stages of planning and implementation, for better national ownership. Unfortunately, the Steering Committee dedicated to ensuring synergies between stakeholders and strategic management of the project was not put in place, and there were challenges in coordinating and ensuring ownership between the different Gabonese NSS stakeholders. 93. Significant delays were nevertheless observed in the implementation of census and survey activities due to the high mobility of technical directors and general directors of the DGS. The sensitive coordination role played by the DGS in this project was regularly disrupted when a new director was appointed. For example, from 2021 to 2023, three director generals were assigned at the DGS. The DGS administrative director, who oversaw coordinating rehabilitation activities, was also changed right before the rehabilitation works started. This caused disruptions to processes that were planned alongside the director. 94. The project’s assessment of the CN-TIPPEE’s fiduciary capacity was overly optimistic. During its implementation, the project encountered several FM and procurement challenges. Inexperience in implementing this type of rather heavy and detailed operations including a multitude of small expenses caused enormous difficulties in effective FM and documentation archiving. Notably, there were issues related to the selection of service providers, equipment specifications, and adherence to bidding procedures. Additionally, contract management for survey operations was not executed in a timely manner, which led to delayed payments to enumerators. Ineligible expenses were identified during FM support missions, and as a result, some contract amounts were reimbursed to the World Bank. 95. The M&E system was not implemented adequately. The project started its activities with limited PIU staff, despite the initial agreement as per the project’s Legal Agreement. The Permanent Secretary of the CN-TIPPEE assumed the role of project coordinator. Only the procurement specialist, an accountant, and a management assistant were recruited. Under the constraint of excessive activity, opinions from external auditors, and recommendations from the World Bank, the CN-TIPPEE recruited a project coordinator in September 2020. The M&E specialist was recruited in April 2021 (three years and four months after the start of the project). Despite these limitations, the M&E system is considered efficient owing to the existence of a computerized, consolidated matrix, which centralizes project data. The M&E system worked well in the circulation of information between the stakeholders. The M&E specialist supported the project coordinator in the M&E of the project’s activities and results. 96. Additionally, the institutional setup of the CN-TIPPEE did not allow stand-alone fiduciary management for the project. All activities had to go through the main FM head or the procurement head introducing further administrative complexity in project processing. As the CN-TIPPEE managed many other equally large World Bank-financed projects, bottlenecks were created in these key positions. There were disagreements between the fiduciary colleagues there, and the CN-TIPPEE had limited contract management capacity for conducting large statistical operations including, for example, DHS III, RGA, and RGE. All these issues added to the many project management issues and delays that arose during project implementation. Mis procurement and FM inconsistencies were noted during the World Bank implementation support missions and technical discussions. There were also issues in the contract management of the rehabilitation activity, where contractors were paid late, and the quality of building activities were not properly followed up. Page 23 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) 97. Regarding relations between the CN-TIPPEE and DGS, there was a lack of communication and consultation throughout the project’s implementation and furthermore the CN -TIPPEE was located further away from the DGS office, necessitating the back-and-forth drive from one location to another to get papers signed. 98. The project aimed to modernize the DGS’s infrastructure, but progress was hampered by the Government ’s prolonged decision-making process. Initially, the project planned to rehabilitate the existing DGS premises. However, it was believed that these facilities contained asbestos and were therefore unsuitable for renovation. Consequently, the Government decided to allocate a different building for the DGS to refurbish using the project's funds. This decision, however, was delayed, resulting in a three-year postponement. When a building was finally allocated, it was already partially occupied by the ANBG, reducing the space available for DGS use. The option of purchasing a new building was then explored but was not viable due to the lack of suitable properties on the market, a new construction was also considered, but the Government was unable to provide the necessary documentation such as a title deed, to proceed with the construction. 99. During the period when purchasing a new building was considered but found impractical, the World Bank reassessed the original DGS buildings documentation and discovered that they did not contain asbestos, contrary to initial beliefs (Asbestos was only present in buildings that were close to the DGS offices). This finding allowed the decision to refurbish the existing DGS buildings in addition to the office space in the ANBG building. However, even after this decision was made, there was a six-month delay before procurement activities for the rehabilitation works began, which led to the need for an extension of the project's completion date. 100. In addition to the prolonged decision-making process, sometimes daily decisions that should have been decided at the DGS level usually had to be discussed at the ministerial level. This process was tedious, as it delayed key dates and processes in project activities. For example, the EPVA was delayed for six months because of a ministerial decision to postpone all DGS data collection activities except the census mapping. This decision did not consider the investments made to prepare the survey and that fieldworkers were already deployed on the field to start data collection, which in turn created confusion and disruption in the survey process. Factors Subject to World Bank Control 101. The project’s supervision and reporting were adequate. During supervision missions, the World Bank’s team was always composed of staff with high-level multidisciplinary skills, particularly experts in statistics, FM, and procurement. The team made concrete recommendations, which led the Government to take the necessary corrective measures in time for satisfactory implementation of the project. The project had only two task team leaders over its lifetime. The use of the World Bank’s FM and procurement systems provided avenues for fast and convenient services while ensuring proper documentation of project transactions. Furthermore, the World Bank’s local office in Gabon maintained continuous dialogue with the authorities and development partners. The World Bank and other development partners engaged in sustained dialogue to strengthen coordination and harmonization of their interventions. 102. The World Bank communication with the DGS was highly effective. During preparation of the poverty survey, the World Bank team held several working sessions with the DGS. To ensure mastery of the tools and successful transition from the use of pen-and-paper personal interview to CAPI, the World Bank provided TA to the DGS team. The processing of the data collected was largely due to regular working sessions with the World Bank’s technical team. The DGS received TA from the subsequent World Bank task team leaders of the project. The World Bank regularly produced Implementation Status and Results Reports (ISRs). Page 24 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) 103. The communication between the World Bank and CN- TIPPEE was also effective providing ongoing assistance to enhance the project implementation. The World Bank routinely conducted trainings in Financial Management, procurement, and environmental and social risk management to improve the project's implementation. Furthermore, the project's task team leaders held regular weekly or bi-weekly meetings to proactively monitor, support, and address any implementation activities or potential bottlenecks in a timely manner. Factors outside the Control of Government/Implementing Entity 104. The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant delays in implementing the planned surveys, capacity-building activities, and institutional reform as planned during project preparation. In addition, the coup d’état, which took place on August 30, 2023, triggered the World Bank OP 7.30 on Dealing with De Facto Governments, leading to a pause in project disbursement. Therefore, the project closing date was extended during the first and second restructuring. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) M&E Design 105. To track the PDO and outcomes, the project implementation team relied on the project Results Framework. The Results Framework, as well as the PDO and IP indicators were very clear. Tracking progress toward the intended outputs and outcomes was supported by M&E activities. The PIU within the CN-TIPPEE was responsible for the M&E function. 106. The projects Results Framework had some shortcomings in measuring the overall project advancement. While it was designed to focus on measuring key data production and dissemination, it overlooked measurement of various underlying activities that contributed to these outcomes. For example, the projects institutional reform efforts were not captured by the results indicators. Similarly, the projects assistance in the development of the NSDS was also not reflected in the metrics. 107. Moreover, the PDO indicator for national accounts aimed to cover its various elements through percentage points, but tracking the progress of each individual activity was not considered. Including a simple 'yes' or 'no' indicator for each activity within the intermediate results framework could have provided a clearer picture of progress at each stage. M&E Implementation 108. The M&E specialist was brought on board in April 2021, which was three years and four months after the project had officially started. Before the specialist’s recruitment, the PIU consistently prepared quarterly progress reports and an annual progress report. These documents provided a comprehensive overview of recent project activities, highlighted the main challenges encountered during implementation, and updated the status of previously identified issues. The reports also included recommendations and tracked the progress of actions that were agreed upon during supervision missions, as documented in the Aide Memoires. In addition, the PIU developed annual work plans in collaboration with the DGS and other project stakeholders. The World Bank oversaw the project through regular project implementation support missions (hybrid) and prepared Aide Memoires and ISRs following these missions to ensure that the project was on track and aligned with the agreements made with the client. Page 25 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) 109. Additionally, the World Bank project teams regularly liaised with the PIU and worked with the DGS to remove technical and fiduciary bottlenecks and helped the borrower achieve the PDO indicators during and beyond the life of the project. M&E Utilization 110. The M&E reports were used to provide evidence of achievement of project development outcomes. The project progress indicators were reported in the ISRs and were used to provide evidence of achievement of outcomes. The implementation support missions always included a list of activities that are recommended and agreed for the coming periods, as well as status updates on previously recommended activities. The M&E system was implemented fully as designed to provide evidence to assess all dimensions of the PDO. Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E 111. The M&E system was well designed and implemented well. The project carried out periodic reporting. In addition, the World Bank monitored the project through regular supervision missions. 112. Therefore, overall rating for quality of M&E is rated Substantial. B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE Environmental Compliance 113. The environmental performance of the project was deemed satisfactory at project closure, as no environmental concerns remained outstanding. The project was prepared under the old safeguard policies and environmentally classified in category B in view of the low to moderate risks that its activities presented. In addition, the project implementation team recruited a health, safety, and environment (HSE) specialist, who had a good understanding of the risks associated with project activities and their management. The environment and social specialist aspects were mainly focused on Components 1 and 2. 114. Although the project did not initially prepare a specific environmental and social instrument for monitoring, the environmental and social specialists mobilized and developed a Safety Management Plan for Component 1 to manage the risks of accidents and incidents linked to the investigators’ journeys (travel by road and crossing rivers) and incidents that may arise from conflict situations with the people being investigated. Several awareness campaigns for project staff were organized, and personal protective equipment was purchased and distributed through the project. Awareness raising was extended to communities. All accidents recorded as part of the project were monitored closely following World Bank procedures. The victims benefited from support from the project. The PIU regularly sent quarterly monitoring reports, which made it possible to track the project’s HSE statistics. 115. As part of Component 2, the buildings to be rehabilitated were first selected based on a technical inspection aimed at identifying those that might have construction materials containing asbestos. Only buildings not containing asbestos were eligible for rehabilitation work. For this work, an Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP) was prepared. This ESMP, for these buildings accessible to the public, has integrated the fire safety requirements (life and fire security), as described in the World Bank’s environmental, health, and safety directives. At the end of the work, no noncompliance issues remained outstanding, no accidents were recorded, and all sites were cleaned and rehabilitated. Page 26 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) Social Compliance 116. The social risk management of this project is moderate overall, as it was reclassified to category B only after its restructuring in October 2021. Data collection through the surveys and dissemination could negatively affect the communities, including inappropriate behavior and sexual exploitation and abuse/sexual harassment. At this restructuring, OP/BP 4.10 was triggered due to the presence of indigenous peoples in the project’s area, which was national. 117. The borrower prepared, duly implemented, and systematically reported on stakeholder engagement, focusing on communities and respecting COVID-19 protocols, with a grievance redress mechanism (GRM); a gender-based violence and sexual exploitation and abuse/sexual harassment plan; a labor management protocol, including a Code of Conduct for all project workers; and a protocol on culturally adequate engagement with indigenous peoples. There were no pending social safeguards issues at project closure. Therefore, the project’s performance was Satisfactory. Fiduciary Compliance 118. FM and monitoring reports were regularly submitted on time with overall acceptable quality. However, the project experienced ineligible expenditures due to the lack of or poor-quality supporting documentation. An institutional and organizational audit of the CN-TIPPEE, the fiduciary team of the World Bank-financed projects in Gabon, was performed in 2023 and identified several weaknesses affecting the financial performance of the project. The fiduciary review, completed in April 2024, noted significant progress in documenting the project expenditures. It is expected that going forward, there will be a gradual improvement in the FM risk and performance of the CN-TIPPEE, with the implementation of organizational audit recommendations and improvement of control over the management of the surveys. 119. During project implementation, the procurement performance was weak. Project procurement execution and management have suffered from lack of planning and coordination between the CN- TIPEE and DGS, some integrity issues leading to significant delays and administrative burdens, which have badly impacted the critical service delivery. The use of the World Bank’s procurement system (Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement) for keeping records of project procurement was also ineffective. Given project experiences, it was found there were areas for improvement of procurement strategy in the future especially for the recruitment for data collection field works and type of output-based contract, materials, and goods acquisition. For example, automated solutions could be considered for preventing time- consuming payment process and be packaged in a way that could bring more sustainability. This would ensure recurrent payments of data collectors and invoices be always paid on time, build good relationships with consultants and suppliers, so as driven efficient procurement towards the PDO. C. BANK PERFORMANCE Quality at Entry 120. The project preparation phase accurately identified the constraints facing the NSS. These problems were also identified in the NSDS. The project was designed to address the key issues raised in the first NSDS. Lessons from other similar statistical capacity-building projects and complementarities with ongoing initiatives from development partners were also considered. Careful attention was given to involve all partners and stakeholders in the preparation, design, and appraisal of the project. For example, comprehensive meetings were conducted with the DGS, and NSS members including the ministries of education, health, agriculture and economy at the directorate of economic analysis and outlook. Through this exercise, priority activities and ministries to collaborate with were identified. The project also consulted with Page 27 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) development partners including the FAO, UNESCO and the United Nations Population Fund to identify possibilities of collaboration when implementing the project. 121. The project was fully in line with the overall country development objectives reflected in the international conventions and frameworks such as the African Statistics Charter and ShaSA. A sound institutional implementation framework was proposed with a coordination unit established at the CN-TIPPEE working in close collaboration with the DGS. Quality of Supervision 122. The project implementation support was carried out adequately. The purpose of the World Bank’s supervisory role was to facilitate effective project implementation and ensure value for money, transparency, and accountability. As evidenced by the series of project ISRs, the World Bank team conducted regular supervision missions and made efforts to resolve issues identified along the way. This was also done through regular project updates and regular check-in meetings with the PIU and DGS, which were instrumental to achieving the project’s objectives. There were at least two supervision missions per year during the project’s life cycle (2017–2023), several technical missions, a midterm review mission, and a virtual project closing mission at the end of the project. In addition to the task team leaders, several other technical experts based in Libreville, Yaoundé, and Washington DC were constantly providing training and advice to the client when needed. TA was provided on survey design, questionnaire design, sampling design, real time monitoring system, poverty measurement and data analysis, and inflation analysis and projection. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance 123. The project design was based on the NSDS and considered the main lessons from similar statistical capacity- building activities in the region. The M&E system of the project was based mainly on a Results Framework designed with the Government. The World Bank team’s supervisions missions and TA were highly effective. The project has been instrumental in building the capacity of the DGS and improving the collection, production, and dissemination of statistics. 124. Therefore, overall World Bank performance is rated Satisfactory. D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 125. The project faces several critical risks that could affect its development outcomes. These include the potential lack of sustained funding for ongoing statistical capacity building, delays in executing planned institutional reforms, a shortage of qualified personnel, and various political risks. Despite these challenges, the project has made notable strides in enhancing human capacity. This success is evidenced by the effective execution of project surveys and the adoption of new methodologies and technologies, such as the CAPI system. The DGS staff has gained valuable experience in conducting household surveys with these advancements. 126. Additionally, the recruitment of new staff through the project is set to further bolster the DGS's capabilities in statistical production. The project also provided scholarships to 18 statisticians, out of which 16 successfully completed their study in regional statistical schools. While one is already hired in the civil service, 15 are in the process of being hired. However, the DGS faces difficulties in attracting and retaining them because of the low salaries and poor working conditions. 127. Substantial progress is still required to fully realize the project's goals. Continuous on-the-job training is essential for all levels of staff—technical, managerial, and administrative. The goal is to transform the DGS into a modernized Page 28 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) INSTAT, equipped with a state-of-the-art data center and IT infrastructure. To achieve this, statistical production and dissemination processes must be modernized and streamlined, ensuring efficiency and effectiveness in the long term. 128. The World Bank has developed a new regional statistics project, Additional Financing of the Harmonizing and Improving Statistics in West and Central Africa - Series of Projects Two (HISWACA - SOP 2) (P180085), where Gabon is part of the project beneficiaries. It was approved in March 2024, and the parent project includes Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Chad, and Central African Economic and Monetary Community. The project aims to improve the country’s statistical performance, regional harmonization, data access and use and enhance modernization of the statistical system in the project participating countries. The additional financing includes the Gabonese Republic and Republic of Congo. The financing amount allocated for Gabonese Republic is an IBRD Loan of US$90 million with a project closing date of December 31, 2029. The PDO is to improve country statistical performance, regional harmonization, data access and use, and to enhance modernization of the statistical system in participating countries. For Gabon, it will strengthen the investments made under the project to structurally transform the statistical system and lessons learned from the project have guided the design and implementation arrangements. 129. More specifically, the project aims to improve the country’s statistical performance, improve data access, and use and enhance modernization of the statistical system in line with international and regional norms and standards. Important activities under HISWACA SOP2 that are linked to the project include: (i) the completion of the 2024 population census and EGEP III; (ii) strengthening the routine data collection system in key sectors such as education, employment statistics monitoring, agricultural production including livestock and fisheries; development of a national data dissemination policy and the establishment of a national data portal to disseminate socioeconomic data; (iii) building upon the human resource management reform efforts in the DGS and NSS to modernize and simplify data collection systems. For example, the project plans to train a cohort of young Gabonese statisticians each year, to close the gap of lack of qualified staff in the INSTAT and NSS. Additionally, following the approval of the regulations and decrees establishing the INSTAT, annual business plans and a new human resources management system are planned to be implemented. The new human resources management system would include a proposal for personnel status, considering qualifications, together with career plans to better retain competent people; (iv) establishment of statistical training programs in a university or national school in the country; and (v) constructing a building for the DGS (future INSTAT) and modernizing its ICT and statistical infrastructure. Other activities under the project include the setup of a labor market statistics system. 130. The lessons learned from the project has shaped the implementation arrangement of the HISWACA – SOP2. More specifically: (i) the establishment of a steering committee is required as part of the projects legal covenant; (ii) the construction activity was only approved as part of the project once a title deed for the future INSTAT office building was provided by the Government; (iii) the DGS will be responsible for project implementation while CN-TIPPEE will only manage the fiduciary aspects of the project with its own separate financial and procurement management staff; (iv) the project aims to develop an operations manual that details all statistical activities, to ensure a cohesive process from beginning to end; and (v) as part of the projects M&E, the Government plans to conduct a project launch workshop to inform beneficiaries about the project and its objectives, along with establishing bi-annual M&E workshops to assess project progress and results. V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 131. Main key lessons were learned from the project’s preparation, implementation, and sustainability. The main lessons to be learned are given in the following paragraphs. Page 29 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) Project’s preparation 132. Key implementation requirements ought to be integrated into the project's effectiveness conditions to guarantee their establishment. During the project's design phase, it was intended to form a Steering Committee to oversee the project's execution. Furthermore, plans were made to establish a dedicated project management team, led by an assistant coordinator, and comprising specialists in financial management, procurement, M&E, as well as environmental and social safeguards anchored at the CN- TIPPEE. Despite these plans, the Steering Committee was not formed, and the project team was not staffed as initially envisioned, which adversely affected the project's management, stakeholder coordination, and M&E activities. To prevent such issues in the future, it is crucial that the formation of a Steering Committee and the hiring of essential project personnel are stipulated as part of the project's effectiveness conditions. 133. The PDO and intermediate indicators should be comprehensive enough to capture the full scope of project activities that contribute to the development objective. While in this project, the indicators primarily tracked the production and dissemination of key statistics such as poverty, price, and national accounts, there were additional activities that significantly contributed to the country's sustainable statistical development. These activities included institutional reform, infrastructure modernization, and human resource development, which encompassed scholarship provisions. The exclusion of these elements from the results framework could lead to a misleading perception of the project's success, suggesting a positive outcome when, in fact, several critical activities were incomplete or absent. Therefore, it is imperative that indicators are carefully designed to reflect the entirety of the project's impact and progress. 134. Early engagement with the development partners improves synergy and maximizes the impact of project's development achievement. The Bank engaged discussions with other development partners during the project’s preparation and implementation. Consultation and coordination with other development partners were done to avoid duplication, share responsibilities, and adopt a harmonized approach in building capacity. For example, DGS worked closely with UNESCO on education statistics to conduct two rounds of school supply census, and FAO on agriculture census and the first agriculture survey. In addition, the project facilitated the collaboration of the DGS with AFRISTAT for staff capacity building and production of official statistics (CPI, foreign trade and national accounts). 135. While the project conducted initial consultations with statistics users during its design phase, it lacked a mechanism for continuous assessment of user needs throughout its execution. This gap represented a missed opportunity to improve to understand the requirements of local communities, civil societies, and other stakeholders. Although a user satisfaction survey was never implemented, such an instrument in the future would be valuable in regularly capturing the needs and satisfaction levels of users. Project implementation 136. When large infrastructure investments are planned under a project, all necessary due diligence, and feasibility study should be put in place prior to project approval. There were huge delays in the renovation and refurbishment of the building used by the DGS. These delays were caused by several factors including lack of true information, and negligence from the Government to provide a building, or a site. All these activities should have been done prior to the start of the project since infrastructure activity by itself takes a lot of time. Therefore, this component was very slow and project implementation and negatively impacted the planned capacity strengthening of the DGS. The changing decisions at the highest level on the way forward has been the main cause. Therefore, to avoid such delays in infrastructure modernization activities, technical and financial feasibility studies should already be agreed upon and developed at project design phase. Page 30 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) 137. To overcome low human resource capacity, policy dialogues and TA should be part of a projects implementation arrangements. The World Bank team technical assistance to the DGS team has been instrumental in the successful implementation of project’ activities (census, surveys). The World Bank maintained continuous dialogue with the authorities on policy reforms and challenges impeding project implementation by for example conducting weekly technical discussions and regular technical missions. In addition, the World Bank team provided technical assistance to the DGS team in conducting the EGEP II. This helped overcome the human capacity deficiency of DGS. Therefore, policy dialogue and TA should be key elements of the project’ implementation arrangements for the success in reaching the project’ goals. 138. Human resource capacity building activities require systematic organization to ensure their effectiveness and sustainability over time. The project clearly identified the capacity building needs and the way to proceed. DGS's capacity- building activities were carried out through TA, training, and the recruitment of senior statisticians. In addition, scholarships were awarded to Gabonese students in regional statistics schools with a view to strengthen the future human resource capabilities of the DGS. However, DGS is facing difficulties in retaining qualified statisticians seeking better pay and working conditions. Despite these efforts, the DGS faces challenges in retaining qualified statisticians, who often seek better remuneration and working conditions elsewhere. To address this issue, it is important that the Government devises and implements a robust human resources management system. Such a system should be designed to attract and retain skilled statisticians by offering competitive salaries and enhancing the work environment. 139. Institutional autonomy is critical in accelerating project workflows and decision-making processes. The DGS was a statistical directorate, and lacked autonomy in decision-making, leading to a cumbersome and bureaucratic approval process that slowed down project activities and led to delays. For instance, even with survey results in hand, the need for multiple approvals caused hold-ups in sharing important data to the public. Survey schedules and timelines were similarly affected. Therefore, granting the DGS the ability to make independent decisions could have circumvented these delays, enhancing overall project efficiency. 140. Efforts to disseminate data should include a comprehensive strategy, detailed guidelines, and a concrete action plan to ensure future dissemination. The project not only facilitated the modernization of the DGS website, including the enhancement of its Open Data portal—which now hosts all recent and past surveys and their corresponding microdata— but it also adopted a systematic approach to data dissemination. A well-defined strategy was crafted, complete with guidelines and an action plan aimed at upgrading the Gabonese statistical information system. This plan, along with its funding, received validation from the NSS. To guarantee the sustainability of data dissemination, it is imperative to develop a strategy that addresses the principal needs of data users, incorporating guidelines and a detailed action plan for its execution. Project Sustainability 141. When planning institutional reform efforts under a project, it is important that there is a demonstrable commitment from the Government to fulfill their respective responsibilities. The project helped initiate institutional reforms for the development of the NSS. But the regulations and decrees that ensure administrative and financial autonomy of the DGS have not been approved by the Government which prevented the creation of the INSTAT. Therefore, to ensure sustainability of the results achieved, the Government should approve the regulations and decrees, which changed the status of the DGS into an autonomous and independent entity. Page 31 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: Increase in Gabon's Statistical Capacity Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Increase in Gabon's Statistical Number 36.70 65.00 65.00 58.90 Capacity Index score 31-Dec-2015 31-Dec-2021 31-Oct-2023 29-Dec-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Improved national accounts Percentage 0.00 100.00 100.00 40.00 and price statistics 31-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2021 31-Oct-2023 29-Dec-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 32 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of welfare, Number 2.00 15.00 15.00 23.00 agriculture, economic and business surveys and 31-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2021 31-Oct-2023 29-Dec-2023 censuses conducted Comments (achievements against targets): Objective/Outcome: Data dissemination practices improved Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of survey and census Number 0.00 8.00 8.00 10.00 microdata files freely available on-line 31-Dec-2015 31-Dec-2021 31-Oct-2023 29-Dec-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Component 1: Improved Data Collection, Statistical Production, and Dissemination Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Base year of the CPI is Yes/No No Yes Yes Yes Page 33 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) updated 31-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2021 31-Oct-2023 29-Dec-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Data collection of the next Yes/No No Yes Yes No welfare survey is completed 31-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2021 31-Oct-2023 29-Dec-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Data collection of the next Yes/No No Yes Yes Yes DHS is completed 31-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2021 31-Oct-2023 29-Dec-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Component: Component 2: Build Technical Capacity and Modernize Infrastructure Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Page 34 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) Increase in number of Number 2.00 8.00 8.00 14.00 qualified technical staff working on national accounts 31-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2021 31-Oct-2023 29-Dec-2023 at the Statistics Office Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of staff at the Number 0.00 80.00 80.00 130.00 Statistics Office with improved skills 31-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2021 31-Oct-2023 29-Dec-2023 Number of women of the Number 0.00 16.00 16.00 56.00 Statistics Office with improved skills 31-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2021 31-Oct-2023 29-Dec-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 35 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT Objective/Outcome 1 Strengthened capacity of the Borrower to fill key data gaps and improve statistical production 1. Increase in Gabon’s SCI score. Outcome Indicators 2. Number of welfare, agriculture, economic, and business surveys and censuses conducted. 3. Improved national accounts and price statistics. 1. Number of staff at the statistics office with improved skills. 2. Number of women of the statistics office with improved skills. 3. Data collection of the next welfare survey is completed. Intermediate Results Indicators 4. Data collection of the next DHS is completed. 5. Base year of the CPI is updated. 6. Increase in number of qualified technical staff working on national accounts at the statistics office. Component 1: 1. RGA in 2019 produced the first structural data on the agricultural sector in Gabon. Eight volumes and leaflets of census core modules were published in collaboration with FAO. 2. EGEP II: This survey has produced poverty profile according to geographical location and according to certain socioeconomic characteristics of households. 3. DHS III: This survey has provided Gabon with up-to-date statistical data in areas as varied as fertility, infant and adult mortality, domestic violence, various diseases (malaria, stroke, and so on) as well as the Key Outputs by Component population’s knowledge and attitudes regarding HIV and hepatitis B. (linked to the achievement of 4. High frequency phone surveys for COVID-19 socioeconomic impact monitoring: Ten waves of analysis the Objective/Outcome 1) relating to ‘the impact of COVID-19 on the living conditions of households in Gabon’ were conducted. Additionally, an analysis report of the survey results on the impact of COVID-19 on the activities of formal and informal production units in Gabon in 2020 and 2021 was published. 5. RGE: The analysis report is available on the DGS website. An analysis by ‘thematic maps’ and ‘microdata’ are also being implemented on the DGS website. 6. RGOE for 2019 and 2021: Statistical Yearbooks of the Education and Training Sector 2018–2019 and 2020– 2021 are available including an online education dashboard resuming the main statistics of the two censuses. Page 36 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) 7. Fourth Population and Housing Census: The project supported preparatory works of the population census including the census cartography. The objective of mapping the census only in the Grand Libreville (Libreville, Akanda, and Owendo) has been achieved. 8. Improvement of price statistics: The harmonized CPI is collected regularly and published systematically every 10th day of the month. 9. National accounts: Under the SNA 1993 (SCN 93), the series of accounts from 2011 to 2018 are available and ready to be published by the Government. The preliminary accounts from 2019 and 2020 are available and being finalized under SCN 93. In addition, the project has laid the foundation for the migration to the SCN 2008 including financing the Trade and Transport Margins Survey. The later report and datasets are available. 10. Other routine statistics: This includes trade statistics, statistics of formal employment, food balance sheet, SDGs monitoring factsheet and statistical yearbook. All the quarterly and yearly reports are published and available online. 11. RGEF: Data collection in Libreville has been completed. Component 2: 1. Training provided to 130 DGS and NSS staff (56 female) on different statistical methods and techniques. in statistical and sector-specific techniques, to equip the administrative entities of Gabon with staff who could work autonomously in the production and dissemination of statistics in their respective sectors. Additionally, a training seminar was provided for non-statistician managers of the Gabon NSS in collaboration with ISSEA. Scholarships were awarded to 17 students (2 females) to study in these regional schools. Seven were supported in TSS, three graduated in ITS and IAS, two in ISE, four in demography, and one in AS. In addition to the 18 students, 2 students were partially supported until December 2023, and are being supported by the ANBG to graduate in 2024. 2. Institutional transition from the DGS to INSTAT: The implementation procedures have already been prepared and validated by the stakeholders (General Secretariat of the Government, Council of State, and the Legal Office of the Minister of the Economy). The document has been sent to the office of the Minister of the Economy for validation by the Government. 3. Development of the draft NSDS for 2023 – 2025. This document has been submitted to the Government for approval. Page 37 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) Objective/Outcome 2 Strengthened capacity of the Borrower to enhance statistical dissemination practices. Outcome Indicators 1. Number of survey and census microdata files freely available online. 1. The project financed the implementation and publication of eight surveys and censuses. Microdata is Key Outputs by Component available for RGA, price statistics, EGEP II, COVID-19, RGE, school censuses, international trade data, food (linked to the achievement of balance surveys, DHS III, and vital statistics. All these are found in the following link: the Objective/Outcome 2) https://gabon.opendataforafrica.org/data/#menu=topic. Page 38 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS Name Role Preparation Abdoullahi Beidou Task Team Leader(s) Kouami Hounsinou Messan Procurement Specialist(s) Adjalou Celestin Niamien Financial Management Specialist Gerard Joseph Mataban Jumamil Team Member Albert Francis Atangana Ze Social Specialist Elikia Merleen Vanessa Abraham Team Member Martin Pedro Buchara Team Member Maya Abi Karam Counsel Senait Kassa Yifru Team Member Clarence Tsimpo Nkengne Team Member Kristyna Bishop Social Specialist Aissatou Diallo Team Member Johan A. Mistiaen Team Member Supervision/ICR Mervy Ever Viboudoulou Vilpoux Task Team Leader(s) Lanssina Traore, Rose Caline Desruisseaux-Cadet Procurement Specialist(s) Henie Dahlia Takodjou Meku Epse Nsinga Financial Management Specialist Francis Tasha Venayen Financial Management Specialist Tarak Yao Souhaliho Ouattara Team Member Nicole Nguema Metogo Social Specialist Astrid Greta Gotalowya Ossouka Team Member Page 39 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) Charlie Foyet Sonkeng Environmental Specialist Melat Assefa Asfaw Team Member Etsehiwot Berhanu Albert Team Member Abdoullahi Beidou Team Member Sylvie Munchep Ndze Procurement Team Sonia Uwera Team Member Senait Kassa Yifru Team Member Graciela Sanchez Martinez Social Specialist Sameena Dost Team Member Antoinette Pongui Procurement Team Arlette Sourou Team Member Alexandra C. Sperling Team Member B. STAFF TIME AND COST Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY16 19.661 128,816.52 FY17 23.347 140,445.21 FY18 .175 3,220.70 FY19 0 1,652.28 Total 43.18 274,134.71 Supervision/ICR FY18 11.837 113,055.16 FY19 11.794 114,251.72 FY20 18.622 147,781.71 FY21 19.219 119,655.99 FY22 42.384 262,312.05 Page 40 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) FY23 20.308 127,497.42 FY24 13.100 84,469.42 Total 137.26 969,023.47 Page 41 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Components Amount at Approval Actual at Project Closing Percentage of (US$, millions) (US$, millions) Approval (%) Component 1: Improved Data Collection, 32.80 33.30 101.50 Statistical Production, and Dissemination Component 2: Build Technical Capacity and 13.50 12.70 94.07 Modernize Infrastructure Component 3: National Statistical System 3.57 4.00 112.00 Institutional Reform and Project Management Capacity Building Total 50.00a 50.00 100.00 Note: a. Front-end fees are added to this amount (0.25 percent). Page 42 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) ANNEX 4. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS Context 1. Gabon's statistical capacity is abnormally low for a middle-income country (40 points constituting the 12th lowest level among the 147 developing countries). Gabon's drop in score reflects the lack of basic data, the delay in data availability, the low volume and poor quality of the production of official statistics. Data dissemination and coordination of the NSS require strengthening. In addition to gaps in basic data, the statistical production process is constrained by an insufficient number of qualified personnel, infrastructure, and working environment. Key factors Affecting Project Implementation 2. The factors that positively or negatively influenced implementation of the project are as follows: (a) Low ownership of the project by focal points. The project relied on a Coordination Unit set up by the DGS, which appointed executives within its administration for project monitoring. (b) Provision of a working framework to the CN-TIPPEE and specialists in FM and accounting, as well as an IT specialist and focal points in the beneficiary ministries for the proper execution of activities. (c) Requests for restructuring and extension approved by the World Bank to improve project execution. (d) Establishment of a counterpart fund to support ineligible expenses. (e) Institutionalization of project monitoring meetings between the Project Coordination Unit, World Bank, and Finex Unit. Performance of the World Bank 3. Gabon developed its first NSDS, which covered 2011–2015. This NSDS was evaluated by a World Bank mission in 2016. The conclusions of this evaluation allowed the World Bank to clearly identify statistical deficiencies in the country. The World Bank also relied on the PSGE, international agendas (SDG Agenda 2030, AU Agenda 2063, and so on), and its statistical rating to reinforce its diagnosis by considering all these aspects. 4. The involvement of the World Bank in supporting the project on a technical and fiduciary level was significant. All the supervision missions were supported by the production of checklists clearly identifying all kinds of risks. Similarly, weekly videoconferences with the World Bank including the Project Coordination Unit and the DGS often made it possible to evaluate the progress of the activities’ implementation and take corrective measures for smooth implementation. Lessons Learned  The use of consultancy (international and national) has made it possible to raise the level of competence of the DGS staff and resulted in operational performance.  The project enabled the DGS to sign agreements with statistics schools to strengthen the skills of non- statistician personnel.  A Steering Committee must be set up at the start of project implementation. Page 43 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473)  The delay in rehabilitation of the building coupled with a lack of involvement of Directors at a high level and monitoring led to the restructuring and extension of the project.  The DGS benefited from the training of senior statisticians from the regional statistics schools.  The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted activities related to the training of census interviewers and data collection, which required travel between provinces.  The project’s efforts to carry out planned activities were often annihilated by the instability of the DGS management staff. Recommendations  Strengthen the communication strategy by combining the reporting of actions with mobilization of public opinions on activities, including institutional reforms.  Design and implement a global training and recruitment plan for the DGS staff.  Prepare for the migration of the DGS to INSTAT by developing management tools of the future institute, an operation manual, internal and personnel regulations, and a training and recruitment plan.  Clarify responsibilities in the implementation manual, particularly the formal communication framework between the DGS and fiduciary agency, while specifying file processing times, alert thresholds, and alert mechanisms that ensure effective collaboration.  Reduce processing times for requests for ‘no objection’.  Establish the institute to provide leadership to the statistics sector and more autonomy of actions.  Define a dynamic data dissemination strategy using various tools and media. Page 44 of 45 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) ANNEX 5. MAP Page 45 of 45