Real-time social protection responses to inflation in the
Middle East and North Africa
Based on draft global tracker v.5 by Gentilini, Almenfi, TMM Iyengar, Valleriani, Okamura, Urteaga, Aziz, Chu and Al Azim Bin Noruzi
No. of measures announced
0
1000
3000
4000
2000
V1. (20 Mar 2020)
103
V2. (27 Mar 2020)
283
V3. (3 April 2020)
418
V4. (10 April 2020)
505
V5. (17 April 2020)
564
V6 (24 April 2020) 685
V7. (1 May 2020)
752
V8. (8 May 2020)
803
Covid-19
V9. (15 May 2020)
870
V10. (22 May 2020)
937
V11. (12 June 2020)
1024
V12. (10 July 2020)
1055
V13. (18 Sept 2020)
1179
V14. (11 Dec 2020)
1414
V15. (14 May 2021)
3333
Global back-to-back responses, 2020 -2023
V16. (2 Feb 2022)
3856
V1 (Apr 2022)
221
V2 (July 2022)
376
V3 (Sept 2022)
609
price shock
V4 (Dec 2022)
1016
V5 (forthcoming)
1333
Number of measures announced
0
50
100
150
200
300
350
250
V1. (20 Mar, 2020)
V2. (27 Mar, 2020)
28
V3. (3 April, 2020)
33
38
V4. (10 April, 2020)
44
V5. (17 April, 2020)
V6 (24 April, 2020) 52
55
V7. (1 May, 2020)
62
V8. (8 May, 2020)
Covid-19
71
V9. (15 May, 2020)
V10. (22 May, 2020)
68
V11. (12 June, 2020)
89
90
V12. (10 July, 2020)
V13. (18 Sept, 2020)
98
V14. (11 Dec, 2020)
202
V15. (14 May, 2021)
318
V16. (2 Feb, 2022)
321
MENA’s back -to-back responses, 2020 -2023
7
V1 (Apr 2022)
21
V2 (July 2022)
V3 (Sept 2022)
50
price shock
76
V4 (Dec 2022)
V5 (forthcoming)
111
No. of measures announced
15
20
10
0
5
V1. (20 Mar 2020)
2
V2. (27 Mar 2020)
2
V3. (3 April 2020)
5
V4. (10 April 2020)
5
V5. (17 April 2020)
V6 (24 April 2020) 5
5
V7. (1 May 2020)
7
V8. (8 May 2020)
8
Covid-19
V9. (15 May 2020)
8
V10. (22 May 2020)
8
V11. (12 June 2020)
7
V12. (10 July 2020)
7
V13. (18 Sept 2020)
14
V14. (11 Dec 2020)
13
V15. (14 May 2021)
19
V16. (2 Feb 2022)
Egypt’s back -to-back responses, 2020 -2023
5
V1 (Apr 2022)
8
V2 (July 2022)
11
V3 (Sept 2022)
price shock
11
V4 (Dec 2022)
17
V5 (forthcoming)
State of MENA inflation responses in a nutshell
1. Inflation… 3rd highest inflation globally, 2 countries in top 10 (Lebanon 3rd, Iran 5th)
2. Composition… social assistance & subsidies at similar share (esp food and fees)
3. Spending… $46 billion, in line with global average % of GDP (1.48%)
4. Coverage... 175.9M people; 38% of the population (13 pp > global)
5. Adequacy… $10.5/day; 36% daily median income (11 pp > global average)
6. Duration… 7.7 months (2nd highest); with average extension of 6.9 mo (14 programs)
Response composition
Categories of measures
1 2 3
SOCIAL SOCIAL LABOR MARKET
ASSISTANCE INSURANCE MEASURES
• Cash Transfers • Pensions • Activation measures
• Social Pensions • Social security • Wage subsidies
• In-kind transfers contributions/waivers • Labor regulatory adjustment
• School feeding • Paid leave and enforcement
• Public works • Health insurance • Minimum wage increase
• Unemployment insurance
4 5 6
TRADE RELATED
SUBSIDIES TAX MEASURES
MEASURES
• Fuel subsidies • Export/import restriction or • Direct taxes
• Food subsidies easing • Indirect taxes
• Fertilizer/agriculture subsidies
• Fee subsidies
Intensity of interventions (21 countries)
Composition of responses
100%
4%
5%
19% 16% 16%
90% 20% 19%
8% 25%
1%
• MENA includes 111 80%
6%
5% 13%
41%
6%
measures announced or 70%
2%
1%
7% 3%
3%
23% 6%
7%
implemented (8% of 1333 9%
4%
7%
6%
60% 47% 0% 3%
global responses) 35%
7% 3%
50% 3%
24% 13% 31%
28% 31%
40%
• In MENA, both subsidies 32%
30%
and social assistance are
the most frequent type of 20%
36% 36%
32%
36%
31%
42%
33%
response (31%), followed by 10%
17%
Tax related response (16%)
0%
and trade-related AFR (n=47) EAP (n=17) ECA (n=47) LAC (n=38) MNA (n=21) North SAR (n=5) Global
America Average
measures (13%). (n=3) (n=178)
Subsidies Social assistance Social insurance
Labor market programs Trade related measures Tax measures
* n=number of Economies
Composition of subsidies
100%
16.5% 15.4%
90%
• MENA has implemented 34
32.4%
subsidy measures across 13 80% 39.7%
45.7%
countries: 50% of them are 50.2%
70%
food subsidies, followed by 30.4%
5.9% 38.5%
71.5%
fee (32%) and fuel (11.8%) 60%
7.9%
91.7%
50%
15.2%
15.9% 13.2%
• MENA recorded less than the 40%
29.1%
50.0%
global average for fee subsidy 10.9%
measures. Most other regions 30%
17.5%
7.3%
(except AFR, SAR) have relied 20%
46.2%
8.3% 36.5%
much more on fee subsidy 28.3%
24.1%
measures such as utility fee 10%
13.0%
19.1%
11.8%
8.3%
subsides. 0%
AFR (n=36) EAP (n=13) ECA (n=43) LAC (n=32) MNA (n=13) North SAR (n=4) Global
America Average
(n=2) (n=143)
Fuel subsidies Food subsidies Fertilizer/agriculture subsidies Fees subsidies
* n=number of Economies
Spending
MENA’s spending (% of GDP)
Top 15 countries spending % of GDP MENA’s average spending is 1.48% of GDP
14.00%
13.17% 14%
13.17% 13.17%
13%
12.00%
12%
In addition to Iran, Morocco and Egypt feature
in the top 20 countries, with spending as % of
11%
GDP of 3.40% and 3.33%, respectively.
10.00% 9.68%
10%
Spending (% of GDP)
9%
8.00% 8%
7.12%
6.79%
7%
6.19%
6.00% 6%
5.27% 5.23% 5.10% 5.23%
4.86%
5% 4.32%
4.32% 4.16% 4.15%
4.14% 3.94%
3.94%
4.00% 3.73% 4% 3.32%
2.45%
3%
2.28%
1.48%
1.49%
2.00% 2% 1.16% 1.37%
0.71%
0.79% 0.81%
1%
0.01% 0.00% 0.37% 0.09% 0.00%
0.00% 0.09%
0.00% 0.12%
0.00% 0%
AFR EAP ECA LAC MNA North SAR Grand Total
America
MENA’s spending (USD)
Social protection and labor spending by region ($ million)
• Only 42 measures (out of 111; 550,000
38%) have data on $515,849
expenditure in the region. 62,499
450,000 Where “n” is the number of
• MENA countries invested programs:
almost $46 billion accounting • AFR = 100
for 5% of the global 350,000 • EAP = 57
investment • ECA = 244
SPENDING ($ MILLIONS)
• LAC = 70
323,075 • MNA = 42
• Decomposition of spending: $261,461
• N. America = 39
250,000 14,401
• SAR = 9
• 44% of investment was on
social assistance ($20.3B), 137,728
mainly from Iran, followed 150,000
by Iraq and Saudi Arabia 12,713
11,570
41,199 $45,969 $75,678
• Rest on Subsidies ($13.6B) 50,000 $34,951 96,618
$40,767 $43,494
mainly from Morocco and 24,826
77,506 8,443
27,223
13,641
10,155
20,253
10,717
24,547
74,054
0
UAE, and SI ($10.2B), mainly 9,254
AFR (100) EAP (57) ECA (244) LAC (70) MNA (42) North America SAR (9)
from Egypt -50,000
(39)
Social assistance (n=219) Social insurance (n=30) Labor market (n=17) Subsidies (n=215) Tax measures (n=80)
*Where “n” is the number of programs
Country level spending
Iran
• Iran tops the list (4.32% of GDP), Morocco
mostly from SA on cash transfers Egypt
for bread price increase Oman
UAE
Iraq
• Morocco (3.4% GDP), with $4.5B on Yemen
food and energy subsidies; and Lebanon
Egypt (3.33% of GDP) with $13.5B, Djibouti
mostly from pensions increase Malta
Syria
Israel
• Oman (2.28% GDP, almost equally Tunisia
split between SA and subsidies), Saudi Arabia
and UAE (2.12% of GDP) mostly Jordan
spent on subsidies 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%
Social assistance Social insurance Labor market programs Subsidies Tax measures
Coverage
Coverage by region
2500 60%
51%
1973.5 50%
2000
COVERAGE (WEIGHTHED % OF POP)
COVERAGE (IND; MILLIONS)
40%
37% 38%
1500
30%
25%
1000 946.1 23%
20% 19%
500
342.2 8% 8%
10%
175.9 199.3
148.0
69.0 93.0
0%
North AFR LAC MENA EAP ECA SAR (N=3) Global
America (N=32) (N=19) (N=15) (N=12) (N=35) Coverage AFR EAP North LAC ECA MENA SAR Grand
(N=3) (N=119) (N=32) (N=12) America (N=19) (N=35) (N=15) (N=3) Average
(N=3) (N=119)
Coverage: Top programs in MENA
Cash Transfers for Bread (Iran) 90%
• 25 programs across 14 countries in Emergency Food Security Support law-Food (Iraq) 87%
MENA have coverage information Exceptional aid to neediest families and pensioners
36%
(Egypt)
Citizen Account Program (Saudi Arabia) 30%
• 22 out of the 25 programs with Subsidised bread (Syria) 23%
coverage information were social Cost-of-living adjustment grant for vulnerable
15%
people (Malta)
assistance programs.
Fuel subsidy Mechanism-cash handout (Jordan) 11%
Food assistance to vulnerable people (Djibouti) 9%
• Among the highest coverage AMAN Cash assistance (Lebanon) 9%
programs in MENA, 9 were cash One-off grant to low-wage earners (Israel) 3%
transfers, 3 in-kind transfer (food or Cost of Living Support for Emiratis (United Arab
2%
voucher), while 2 were subsidies Emirates)
(food and fuel) Cash assitance for vulnerable group (Oman) 2%
Youth unemployment benefits (Algeria) 1%
Fuel subsidies for transportation workers
0.5%
(Morocco)
0% 50% 100%
Adequacy
Adequacy
Adequacy (as a share of daily median income) in MENA is In absolute terms, MENA’s average benefit size ($10.5/day)
higher than the global average is above the global average
Saudi Arabia 230% 180.00
Morocco 139%
160.00 142.5
Oman 91%
$/person/day 142.5
United Arab Emirates 74% 140.00
Algeria 39% 113.2
120.00
MNA average (n=34) 36%
Iran 27% 100.00
Global average (n=339) 25%
80.00
Malta 18%
Djibouti 18% 60.00 46.2
Egypt 6% 31.3
40.00
Lebanon 8%
16.7
Israel 6% 20.00
6.6 10.5
5.2 7.2 7.7 6.1
Jordan 6% 0.3
0.2 1.4
0.2 2.5
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
0.00
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% SAR (n=2) AFR (n=33) LAC (n=36) EAP (n=71) ECA (n=173) North America MNA (n=34) Grand Total
(n=21) (n=370)
Duration
Duration
9
8.46
• Only 48 (~43%) out of 111 total 7.67
recorded measures in MENA had
duration information 6.14
6.43
6.04
6
# of Months
4.62
• On average, the region has a
duration of benefit of 7.7 months. 3.33
3.14
3
• Extension information is available
for 8 countries (Egypt, Iraq, Israel,
Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Saudi
Arabia, and West Bank and Gaza) 0
SAR North LAC ECA AFR MENA EAP Grand
with average extension of 6.9 (n=7) America (n=84) (n=276) (n=64) (n=48) (n=52) Total
months (n=14). (n=43) (n=574)