Lagos Diagnostic Study and Pathway for Transformation Insert image of Lagos A Rapid Multi-Sector Analytical Review of the Mega-City June 2023 Image credit to Reginald Bassey under license by Creative Commons 1. Executive Summary Table of 2. 3. Introduction Development Trends and Challenges Contents 4. Constraints and Drivers of Change 5. Recommendations 6. Annexes 2 1. Executive Summary Lagos Multi-Sectoral Diagnostic Review 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Objectives and Government Priorities A multi-sector team conducted a systematic analytical review on the current development status of Lagos, with the objective of identifying challenges and opportunities that would promote integrated, resilient and inclusive growth of the mega-city to realize Lagos’ development potential and its role in leading economic growth and poverty reduction for the region and the country. • The Lagos State Development Plan (LSDP) 2012-2025 and the recently L SDP L SDP launched LSDP 2022-2052 put forward the vision and mission of the M I SSI ON VI SI ON mega-city. The LSDP builds on the State’s previous THEMES agenda (Traffic Management and Transport, Health and Environment, Education Eradicate poverty and Africa’s Model Megacity and Technology, Making Lagos a 21st-century economy, Entertainment promote economic and Global, Economic and and Tourism, and Security and Governance). growth through Financial Hub that is Safe, infrastructural renewal Secure, Functional and • The Lagos Resilience Strategy (2020) articulates an integrated approach and development to addressing the shocks and stresses the city experiences or might Productive experience. • The Climate Action Plan was also developed as a commitment to the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group’s Deadline 2020. RE SI L I E NC E STRATE GY • These policies are more visionary and strategic while other state policies VI SI ON are sector-specific [e.g., Integrated Resource Plan (electricity policy), Strategic Transportation Master Plan]. An innovative, inclusive, and • There is an urgent need of committing to development that spatially prosperous city that leverages the integrates and coordinates investment actions. appropriate governance and infrastructure mechanisms to Lagos’ development priorities empower its people to thrive, adapt, and grow sustainably. and policies areas 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Key Development Trends and Challenges in Lagos (1/2) • While Lagos constitutes only 8% of Nigeria’s population, the state generates 15-30% of Nigeria’s GDP. Central to Nigeria’s • GDP growth greater than that of the country’s growth (5.8% vs. 5.2% between 2003-2019). economy, but economic • GDP per capita has declined since 2015 to pre-2010 level. growth is stagnating while • Informal sector plays a major role contributing about one third to the economy, but also contributes to low productivity. poverty remains high • 45% informal employment, almost 42% of working age population is under- or unemployed. • Lagos is the state with the lowest poverty rate (4.5%), but almost 80% of households are classified as poor according to LASG. • Lagos is one of the largest and fastest growing mega-cities in Africa at 13-27 million: population annual average growth rate is 3.2%, above the national growth rate of 2.6%. Projected to become the world’s most populous city by 2100, with 88.3 million. Rapid population growth • Built-up area average annual growth rate of 2.6% since 2000. and uncontrolled spatial • Urban expansion taking place beyond the metropolitan area, along peripheral areas as well as reclamation of water bodies along expansion Epe, Badagry, and Ibeju-Lekki LGAs. • Sprawling growth continues beyond the state’s borders to neighboring Ogun state. • Lagos ranked as the second least livable city out of 172 global cities (EIU Global Livability Ranking 2022), according to stability, Livability is lagging, with healthcare, culture and environment, education and infrastructure factors. huge housing deficit, • Housing deficit of ~3.3 million units, with 87% of the need for low and very low-income households • 50-75% of the population live in informal housing; over 140 slums identified prevalence of slums and • Only 14% of households receive steady, reliable supply of electricity (>8 hours per day). inadequate provision of • Waste collection rate is 20-30%; only 13% of recyclable waste is recycled. basic infrastructure and • Only 35% of the population has access to the public water supply; only 5% is connected to the public sewerage system. services • Poor mobility due to heavy reliance on road transport (98%) and insufficient transport infrastructure: commuters spend an average of 4 hours daily in traffic. 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Key Development Trends and Challenges in Lagos (2/2) Development taking place • Uncontrolled urban expansion has increased the population’s exposure to natural disasters and will worsen with climate change. in a context of increasing • Flood damages estimated to cost almost $4 billion each year. natural disasters and • 86% of the state’s coastline is subject to erosion: approx. $1.7 billion each year in loss of assets, economic production and land. climate change • Other prominent risks include sea level rise, extreme heat events, droughts and wildfires. Buildings and infrastructure • The highest share of GHG emissions is from stationary energy: residential buildings account for 21% of these systems, together with emissions, manufacturing accounts for 23%, while commercial activity accounts for 11%. urban sprawl, are major • The transportation sector accounts for 20% of GHG emissions in Lagos. contributors to carbon • Pollution is mainly associated with improper solid waste/plastic disposal: the waste sector contributes the largest share of emissions and pollution particulate matter (PM2.5) at 32% and is the third largest source of GHG emissions in Lagos. Significant investment needed to close • LASG estimates over USD 50 billion needed to address investment gap across transport, water, solid waste management and ICT. infrastructure gap and upgrade to climate-smart • By comparison, Lagos has managed to invest less than USD 1 billion annually over the last decade. systems 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Primary Constraints and Drivers of Change • The following constraints are holding Lagos back from fully realizing its development potential, but could be transformed into drivers of change: • Weak urban governance and finance systems: Without city or municipal governments, urban public goods and services are not adequately being delivered to meet the needs of Lagos’ rapidly growing population – federal, state and local governments perform municipal functions, but unclear delegation of responsibilities hampers effective urban management and results in lack of accountability. The lack of an urban finance system also creates challenges for the effective delivery of urban goods and services. Low revenues, highly inflexible expenditures, increasing reliance on borrowing and budget transparency issues are major concerns. • Ineffective urban planning system: The absence of municipal and metropolitan authorities with clear responsibility for urban areas compromises the effectiveness of planning in Lagos and hampers sustainable development. Inadequate plans and a deficient regulatory system hold down sustainable growth and exacerbates informality. • Fragmented land administration: A bifurcated land system, costly and cumbersome land registration and regularization processes, and land speculation are amongst the challenges which stymy affordable housing development, exacerbate informality, hamper economic development and limit revenues essential for necessary capital investments. • A lagging business environment: Inadequate infrastructure and market connectivity, poor access to finance, high compliance costs to formalize businesses, weak competition in consumer product markets, poor human capital outcomes, and ongoing violence, insecurity and corruption reduce the incentive to formalize business activity, resulting in the high rate of informality and low productivity. [1] & [2] IFC/WBG. 26 May 2021. Concept Endorsement and Approval Note for Blended Finance Committee for the Lagos City Infrastructure project (40065) 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Pathway to Harness the Development Potential of Lagos Recommendations: 4 Areas of Intervention (1/2) Intervention Area Recommendations 1. Strengthen urban • R1.1: Strengthen urban management and service delivery through governance reform, cross-sectoral governance, digital coordination, and technical and financial capacity building planning and finance systems • R1.2: Support sustainable urban growth of Lagos through community-driven and climate-resilient spatial planning and development 2. Invest in climate– • R2.1: Improve urban mobility through development of an enhanced transportation network that is smart infrastructure integrated, multi-modal and supports carbon emissions reduction and services • R2.2: Develop an integrated solid waste management system - waste minimization, collection, separation and treatment - through comprehensive planning, investment and capacity building • R2.3: Increase access to water supply and sanitation services and develop an integrated urban water management system that coordinates water supply, sewerage, stormwater drainage, wastewater treatment, solid waste management and land use planning • R2.4: Increase access to reliable energy through implementing policy reform and supporting renewable energy sources 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Pathway to Harness the Development Potential of Lagos Recommendations: 4 Areas of Intervention (2/2) Intervention Area Recommendations 3. Activate land • R3.1: Improve land administration through complete digitization of regularization process and capacity markets to grow the building to increase tenure security, foster better planning and urban development, enable private formal housing investment and support increased property tax revenue generation sector • R3.2: Increase access to quality affordable housing through comprehensive planning, incentivizing private sector participation, innovative design, and boosting housing finance and slum upgrading programs 4. Foster economic • R4.1. Prioritize infrastructure investments that create jobs and promote economic development development and inclusive growth • R4.2. Enhance process of doing business • R4.3 Support inclusive economic development 9 2. Introduction Insert images Presentation title 20XX 10 Image credit to OpenUpEd under license by Creative Commons Image credit to ISeeAfrica under license by Creative Commons INTRODUCTION Overview • This report provides a systematic urbanization review to assess the current development status of Lagos. • The aim of the review is to understand the challenges facing Lagos and to identify the constraints and opportunities that would promote integrated, resilient and inclusive growth, to support the Lagos State Government in advancing implementation of the Lagos State Development Plan and the Lagos Resilience Strategy. • This section provides an overview of Lagos’ national and global significance. The next sections then provide key development trends, challenges facing Lagos, and the systems that are constraining sustainable growth of Lagos but are also the drivers of change. • The report culminates with a set of recommendations to support Lagos in fully realizing its development potential and its role in leading economic growth and poverty reduction for the country and region. • The analysis and recommendations in the report are based on the sectoral analytical studies prepared by the WB team in collaboration with the LASG under the PASA LAPD (list is provided in the Annexes). 11 INTRODUCTION The Big Picture: Lagos in the Global, Regional and National Context Like many African countries, Nigeria has been experiencing above global average urbanization growth over the past few decades Urban population growth as a percentage of total population 60 • Globally, the urban population grew steadily from 33.6% in 1960 to 56.6% in 2021, while that of SSA 50 went from 14.7% to 41.8% during the same time frame. 40 • At the country level, Nigeria’s urban population jumped from 30 15.4% in 1960 to 55.6% in 2022, with a rapid urbanization rate of 4% 20 in 2022. • Nigeria has surpassed the 10 annual average urban population growth rate of SSA since 1982. 0 Nigeria SSA World 12 INTRODUCTION The Big Picture: Lagos in the Global, Regional and National Context Nigeria’s urban population has multiplied by almost 14 times over the past sixty years - from less than 7 million people in 1960 to over 100 million in 2020 Urban Population (million) Nigeria’s urban population is projected to reach nearly 264 million in 2050. Source: World Bank Group Population Database 2023 Nigeria 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Urban population 6.9 9.8 16.0 28.2 42.8 69.9 100.8 150.5 208.0 263.9 13 Population, total 44.0 55.0 72.0 95.0 122.0 160.0 208.0 262.0 320.0 377.0 INTRODUCTION The Big Picture: Lagos in the Global, Regional and National Context Nigeria's urbanization is associated with economic growth in the past decades Nigeria’s three largest cities - Lagos, Kano and Ibadan - have similar GDP per capita over the past two decades, with peaks in 2015 Source: Oxford Economics, 2022, “Competitive Cities Database”. Benchmark cities include Abidjan, Addis Ababa, Dakar, Dar es Salaam, Ibadan, Kampala, Kano, Khartoum, Kinshasa, Kumasi, Luanda and Nairobi. These are the largest Sub- Saharan African cities with data available in countries not 14 classified as High Income or Upper Middle Income. INTRODUCTION The Big Picture: Lagos in the Global, Regional and National Context ...with concentration of economic activities around cities, the highest peak being Lagos Lagos Source: Ghosh et. al. (2010) 15 INTRODUCTION The Big Picture: Lagos in the Global, Regional and National Context Lagos is the primate city of Nigeria and the one of the largest and fastest growing megacities in Africa 2022e URBAN AREA POPULATION (MILLIONS) 2030p Size of Lagos OUAGADOUGOU (BURKINA FASO) DAKAR (SENEGAL) KANO (NIGERIA) NAIROBI (KENYA) Land area of 3,577 of km2 ADDIS ADABA (ETHIOPIA) ABIDJAN (COTE d´IVOIRE) KHARTOUM (SUDAN) Estimated to be 26 million (2018), namely, JOHANNESBURG (SOUTH AFRICA) 13% of Nigeria’s population DAR ES SALAAM (TANZANIA) LUANDA (ANGOLA) Increasing by nearly 3,000 persons/day KINSHASA (CONGO) LAGOS (NIGERIA) Projected to double by 2050 and reach 80 0 5 10 15 20 25 million by 2100, becoming the world’s Source: U N 2018 World Urbanization Prospects largest city Source: Lagos Resilience Strategy 2020 16 INTRODUCTION Government Priorities and Plans Development objectives and priorities are outlined in multiple plans at the State and local levels around a vision of a resilient, inclusive, and prosperous city 400+ key initiatives to make Lagos Africa’s model mega city, of which 72 planned for 2023. 17 INTRODUCTION Lagos State Development Plan The LSDP outlines a sectoral-based vision with a focus on four areas: (1) thriving economy; (2) human-centric city; (3) modern infrastructure; and (4) effective governance Lagos State Development Plan “Becoming Africa’s Model Mega City by 2052: A global, economic and financial hub that is safe, The LSDP builds on the State’s previous THEMES agenda secure, functional and (Traffic Management and Transport, Health and productive” Environment, Education and Technology, Making Lagos a 21st-century economy, Entertainment and Tourism, and Security and Governance). 18 INTRODUCTION Lagos Resilience Strategy The Lagos Resilience Strategy lists several goals under its 1st pillar “Efficient City” to improve urban resilience These goals encompass physical infrastructure enhancements to transportation, water and sanitation, energy, and planning. Lagos Resilience Strategy “Resilient Lagos is an innovative, inclusive, and prosperous city that leverages the appropriate governance and infrastructure mechanisms to empower its people to thrive, adapt, and grow sustainably” 19 INTRODUCTION Lagos Climate Action Plan The CAP is a 5-year plan for Lagos that aligns with the Paris Agreement and aims towards carbon neutrality by 2050 • The plan is organized around four sectors: (1) waste, (2) transportation, (3) energy, and (4) climate adaptation and resilience. • The CAP contains not only a broad, stakeholder-led vision but also four sets of visions each organized around the sectors. Each sector contains sets of projects organized around actions and goals. Lagos Climate Action Plan “A cleaner, greener, healthier, stable and more prosperous Lagos in a changing climate” 20 INTRODUCTION Key Take-Aways Lagos has a key opportunity to fully realize its development potential and its role in leading economic growth and poverty reduction for the country and region • To support Lagos in advancing implementation of the LSDP, the Lagos Resilience Strategy, the Lagos Climate Action Plan and other government spatial and sectoral plans, it is first necessary to understand the development trends and challenges facing Lagos and to identify the constraints and opportunities that would promote integrated, resilient and inclusive growth. • The next section provides high-level development trends in Lagos with respect to demographic, economic and spatial growth. This is followed by the challenges and constraints to tapping the full development potential of Lagos and a plan to address the bottlenecks, including pathways, long-term initiatives and priority actions to harness Lagos' potential. 21 3. Development Trends and Challenges Insert images Presentation title 20XX 22 Image credit to OpenUpEd under license by Creative Commons Image credit to ISeeAfrica under license by Creative Commons DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES Overview Six Key Development Trends and Challenges Lagos faces cross-cutting challenges to tapping its full development potential. Six key challenges are discussed in this section: 1. Lagos is central to Nigeria’s economy, but economic growth is stagnating while poverty remains high. 2. Lagos is experiencing rapid population growth and uncontrolled spatial expansion. 3. Livability is lagging, with huge deficits in housing and basic services. 4. Development is taking place in a context of increasing natural disasters and climate change. 5. Buildings and infrastructure systems, together with urban sprawl, are major contributors to carbon emissions and pollution. 6. Significant investment is needed to close the infrastructure gap and upgrade to climate- smart systems. 23 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 1. Lagos is central to Nigeria’s economy, but economic growth is stagnating while poverty remains high Lagos plays a major role in Nigeria’s economy and serves as a key node for regional, national and international linkages • Lagos generates 15%1-30%2 of Nigeria’s GDP. • GDP growth greater than that of the country’s growth (5.8% vs. 5.2% between 2003-2019).3 • Lagos is Nigeria’s financial hub and trade center, home to major commercial banks and the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Most large firms in the country are located in Lagos4 and it is where 40% of businesses in Nigeria are registered.5 • 75% of Nigeria’s imports passing through Lagos’ ports.6 Nigeria’s two main ports at Lagos and Port Harcourt provide direct access to international trade and freight routes that connect Asia, Europe, and North America. • 50% of cargo movements in the North and Central African subregion passes Lagos’ borders.7 • The Lagos-Kano transport corridor, the main channel for domestic, regional and international trade in Nigeria, is also the central axis of cattle and leather trade. It spans approximately 990km and links the country’s two most populous cities (Kano and Lagos), passing through Kaduna, Ilorin and Ibadan. [1] MEPB, LBS. 2022. “Lagos State Gross Domestic Products (SGDP): 2013-2021.” [2] & [3] Lagos State Development Plan 2052. [5] World Bank. 2019. Nigeria Systematic Country Diagnostic. [4] IFC. 2020. Nigeria Country Private Sector Diagnostic. [6] & [7] Lagos State Development Plan 2052. 24 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 1. Lagos is central to Nigeria’s economy, but economic growth is stagnating while poverty remains high • Lagos’ economy is ECONOMIC SECTORS steered by non- Share of employment by sector in Lagos and benchmark cities1 agriculture sectors, with dominant specialization in services (consumer, transport & ICT, financial & business) relative to benchmark cities1 • The tech industry Share of gross value added by sector in Lagos and benchmark cities has become a significant competitive area for Lagos in the past decade • Financial technology is also growing rapidly Source: Oxford, 2022, “Competitive Cities Database”. [1] Benchmark cities include Abidjan, Addis Ababa, Dakar, Dar es Salaam, Ibadan, Kampala, Kano, Khartoum, Kinshasa, Kumasi, Luanda and Nairobi. These are 25 the largest Sub-Saharan African cities with data available in countries not classified as High Income or Upper Middle Income. The aggregate figure for benchmark cities is the median value. DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 1. Lagos is central to Nigeria’s economy, but economic growth is stagnating while poverty remains high Economic activity is greatest in the center, within the metropolitan area Average nighttime light radiance (2013–2019) Nanowatts per square centimeter per steradian (nW⋅cm-2⋅sr-1) 77 0 Rate of change in nighttime radiance (2013–2019) Average change in nanowatts per square centimeter per steradian per month (nW⋅cm-2⋅sr-1⋅month-1) 5.5 -5.5 But activity is increasing in Eti Osa and other LGAs northeast of the urban core, as well as to the east in Ibeju. Map data from NOAA, “VIIRS Daily Mosaic”. 26 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 1. Lagos is central to Nigeria’s economy, but economic growth is stagnating while poverty remains high But there is still untapped potential for Lagos to fully realize its development potential 60 2.5 SHARE OF NATIONAL POPULATION (ORANGE) AND GDP (BLUE) Although Lagos 50 RATIO: GDP SHARE / POPULATION SHARE (DOTS) has an adequate 2.0 ration of GDP share to population share, 40 1.5 there remains untapped 30 potential 1.0 in socioeconomic 20 development. 0.5 10 0 0 LAGOS DHAKA CAIRO JAKARTA MEXICO LONDON INSTANBUL LIMA BUENOS PARIS MANILA MOSCOW CITY AIRES Source: Authors, using data from UN World Urbanization Prospects 2018 and Oxford Economics Competitive Cities database. 27 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 1. Lagos is central to Nigeria’s economy, but economic growth is stagnating while poverty remains high Development is occurring in a context of overall economic stagnation, with the informal sector playing a major role in the economy • GDP per capita has declined since 2015 to pre-2010 level. • Stagnant growth could be attributed to the large role that the informal economy plays: ▪ The informal sector contributes about one-third of Lagos’ economy.2 ▪ About 42% of all commercial activity is conducted through the informal sector. 3 ▪ 45% of household members are employed informally (“self-employed”).4 • Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) play a major role, and are mostly in the informal sector, in activities related to trade and manufacturing: 3.2 million MSMEs employ about two- thirds of the working population.1 [1 & 4] Lagos Resilience Strategy, 2020. [2] Lagos State Development Plan 2052. [3] Lagos Bureau of Statistics, 2020. 28 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 1. Lagos is central to Nigeria’s economy, but economic growth is stagnating while poverty remains high Poverty and unemployment remain high • Lagos is the state with the lowest poverty rate at 4.5%1, but according to LASG’s • Population growth attributed to migration is not necessarily linked to greater classification, at the LGA level, at least 78% of households are classified as supply of more productive jobs: either “poor” or “extremely poor”2. ▪ Unemployment rate is high, at 24%3 • Higher concentration of poverty in the urban periphery to the south, east and ▪ Combined unemployment and underemployment rate is almost 42%.4 west, but pockets of poverty exist within the urban core. Households classified as “poor” or “extreme poor” Percentage of households surveyed Source: Lagos State Government. 2020. “Table 92. Combined Measures of Poverty.” Poverty Profile for Lagos State. [1] World Bank. 2022. Nigeria Poverty Assessment. [5] Lagos State Development Plan 2052. Lagos Multi-Sectoral Diagnostic Review 29 [2] Lagos Bureau of Statistics. 2020. Poverty Profile for Lagos State. [6] BudgIT. 2021. State of States Report. DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 2. Lagos is experiencing rapid population growth and uncontrolled spatial expansion Lagos is experiencing rapid population growth • The annual growth rate of Lagos is 3.2%1 – this is higher than the country’s growth rate of 2.6%.2 • Population counts vary: Most recent estimate by the Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics was 12.8 million (2019);3 according to the Lagos Bureau of Statistics, the population has reached 26.4 million.4 A large number of people move to Lagos daily for jobs and livelihoods, and they are not reported. • Lagos’ population is projected to surpass 32 million people by 2053; by 2100, Lagos is projected to become the most populous city, with 88.3 million.5 • Due to natural growth and migration, Lagos’ population increases daily by nearly 3,000 persons.6 • The total fertility rate for Lagos is 3.4 children per woman – higher than the replacement fertility level of 2.1.7 [1] UN World Urbanization Prospects 2018 Highlights. [2] National Population Commission. 2021. National Policy on Population for Sustainable Development. November 2021. [3] National Bureau of Statistics. 2020. Demographic Statistics Bulletin. [4] Lagos Bureau of Statistics. 2020. Abstract of Local Government Statistics. [5] Hoornweg, D., & Pope, K. 2016. Population predictions for the world’s largest cities in the 21st century. Environment and Urbanization, 29(1), 195–216. [6] Lagos Resilience Strategy, 2020. [7] National Population Commission and ICF. 2019. Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey 2018. 30 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 2. Lagos is experiencing rapid population growth and uncontrolled spatial expansion About 90% of the population live and work in the Lagos metropolitan area,1 consisting of 16 out of the 20 local government areas (LGAs) of the state [1] Lagos State Government Digest of 2018 31 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 2. Lagos is experiencing rapid population growth and uncontrolled spatial expansion Population is densest in the central core, with extensive peri-urban population growth over the past twenty years • While Lagos has the smallest landmass, it is the most densely populated state, with 8,000persons/km2, which is 40 times Nigeria’s average of 200 persons/km2.1 • Population is densest in the central core, especially Ajeromi LGA, with extensive peri-urban growth to Ikorodu and Eti-Osa over the past twenty years. • The greatest number of out-of-state immigrants arrive in the LGAs surrounding the core, including Apapa, Amuwo Ofodin, Alimosho, Ifako and Kosofe.2 POPULATION DENSITY Population Density Number of persons per 100 m2 1–85 85–220 220–455 455–810 812–1,625 Map data from WorldPop. Bondarenko, et al, Census/projection-disaggregated gridded population datasets, 2020. [1] LSDP 2052. [2] Lagos State Government. 2020. Poverty Profile for Lagos State. Table 121. State of origin of household members. 32 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 2. Lagos is experiencing rapid population growth and uncontrolled spatial expansion Spatial growth of Lagos is characterized by rapid uncontrolled expansion, extending beyond the metropolitan area • The built-up area of Lagos has been growing at an average annual rate of 2.6% since 2000.1 • The high concentration of people and activities at the center of Lagos has prompted the government to seek development along the periphery and outside the designated Year of urban expansion EXPANSION OF URBAN BUILT-UP AREA metropolitan area. Before 1985 1985–1995 • Spatial mapping shows recent expansion 1995–2005 2005–2015 taking place in Alimosho, Ikorodu, and Eti-Osa • Spatial development is also occuring along Lekki, Epe, and the Ibeju-Lekki axis Map data from DLR, 2015, “World Settlement Footprint Evolution - Landsat 5/7 - Global”. 33 [1] Lincoln Institute. 2016. Atlas of Urban Expansion. DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 2. Lagos is experiencing rapid population growth and uncontrolled spatial expansion Urban expansion of Lagos also 1984 2000 extends beyond the state’s boundary • Sprawling growth continues outwards to neighbouring Ogun state – especially along the Sango-Ota axis and Sagamu Interchange.1 • The 2052 LSDP has identified large parcels of un(der)utilized land in the eastern and western regions (Badagry, Ojo, Ibeju/Lekki and Epe LGAs) and is targeting these areas for new urban development of housing and economic clusters. 2013 2020 ➢ Development in peri-urban areas where land is cheaper could be one of the ways to accommodate Lagos’ growing population, although the government should assess whether the lower cost of land outweighs the higher costs of extending infrastructure. Source: Google Earth [1] Onilude, O. O., & Vaz, E. 2021. Urban sprawl and growth prediction for Lagos using GlobeLand30 data and cellular automata model. Sci, 3(2), 23. doi:https://doi.org/10.3390/sci3020023 34 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 3. Livability is lagging, with huge deficits in housing and basic services Lagos is lagging in livability SELECTED MERCER LIVABILITY RANKING CITIES IN SSA (2019) Port Louis 83 Durban 88 Cape Town 95 Johannesburg 96 Victoria 98 Lagos 212 SSA Regional 183 Average • Lagos ranked #212 out of 231 global cities and #28 a m o n g 4 2 cities in Sub-Saharan A f r ic a a c c ord in g t o the Mercer Qu alit y o f L iv in g Ranking Sources: Mercer Quality o f L i v i n g Survey (2019); U n i t e d Nations Statistics Division (2014) 2019. • Lagos is the second least livable city out • Rapid development of Lagos has led to multiple challenges that impact of 172 global cities a c c ord i n g t o t h e livability, with substantial deficits in housing and infrastructure as major Ec on omis t Intelligence U n it contributing factors. Global L iv ab ility Index 2022. 35 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 3. Livability is lagging, with huge deficits in housing and basic services A shortage of well-located affordable housing options contributes to low livability and is a driver of informal settlements • Housing deficit of 3-4 million units1, with 87% of the need for low and very low-income households2. • High costs of available housing have resulted in overcrowded living conditions: 50% of residents live in households where more than 3 people sleep in a single room.3 • Land constitutes 40–80% of the total cost of a house in an urban setting. • Housing costs have increased while wages have remained stagnant (or only marginally increased). • Prices of imported building materials have become expensive in light of devaluation of the Nigerian currency and global inflation. • Mortgages are too expensive and thus remain out of reach for majority of residents: A would-be homeowner is expected to provide a deposit of between 10% - 30%4 to access a mortgage at high interest rates (15-25%5). • Extremely high rents at ~157%6 more than the acceptable average of spending a third of income on housing. • Insufficient supply of affordable housing has led to the proliferation of underserviced, vulnerable and tenure-insecure settlements: 50-75%7 of the population live in informal housing and over 140 slums identified.8 [1] ~3 million according to Lagos Resilience Strategy, 2020. Over 4 million according to World Bank 2022 assessment using NBS data from 2020. [2] & [4] World Bank. 2022. Housing Affordability Assessment. [3] UN-Habitat. 2021. City Profile #4. Lagos, Nigeria [5] World Bank. 2015. Slum upgrading, involuntary resettlement, land and housing: Lessons learned from the experience in Lagos and other mega-cities [6] LSDP 2052 [7] UN-Habitat calculated 50% in 2019. The 2052 LSDP puts the share of population living in slums at 75%. [8] World Bank. 2022. Scoping Study on Governance, Planning and Finance in the Lagos Metropolitan Area. 36 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 3. Livability is lagging, with huge deficits in housing and basic services Government response to address housing issues has been largely insufficient and private sector participation has been limited • National and state housing programs exist to address supply and demand issues, but have had minimal effect • National and state funding programs exist, e.g., National Housing Fund, Family Homes Funds’ construction finance, mortgage refinancing, Lagos Home Ownership Mortgage Scheme (HOMS) and Rent-to-Own program – these programs have not yet made a major impact • The Lagos State Urban Renewal Agency (LASURA) is responsible for implementing urban renewal policies and programmes, including the identification and upgrading of slum communities and excised villages. Despite being in operations for over 20 years, slum communities continue to proliferate. Interventions by the agency are primarily focused on social and physical infrastructure (road construction and water provision) to low-income communities. • A national housing strategy has been prepared but has yet to be approved and implemented while a comprehensive housing policy at the state level is missing • Limited private sector participation to build low-income housing, due to high transaction costs and especially due to the difficulty of accessing land - land grabbing by the descendants of indigenous landowners (Omo Oniles) is a prominent challenge in Lagos. • To address the housing shortage, the 2052 LSDP proposes the creation of new housing districts in the east and west regions of the state, outside the metropolitan area – development in peri-urban areas where land is cheaper could be one way to accommodate future growth, although it should be assessed if the higher cost of extending trunk infrastructure outweighs the lower cost of land. • Without affordable housing alternatives people who move to Lagos will resort to informal housing and slums will continue to grow, or residents will have to reside in peripheral areas a great distance from job centers. 37 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 3. Livability is lagging, with huge deficits in housing and basic services Serious backlogs in basic infrastructure and services also contribute to low livability and constrain economic development Electricity: Only 14% of households receive steady, reliable supply (>8 hours per day) 3 According to the 2052 LSDP, the • Most of the population of Lagos are close to the grid infrastructure, but electricity supply from power supply would need to be the grid is insufficient to meet demand and the majority are not connected increased by 6x to close to gap • 96% of households are close to grid infrastructure; gaps are primarily in low-population areas of Epe between demand and supply and Badagry.1 • Only 32% of households are connected to the grid.2 Lagos Power Supply Gap in Terawatt Per • Poor reliability and incessant power outages mean connection to the grid is no guarantee of Hour (TWH) supply - many homes and businesses instead must rely on a generator: ~80% of population relies on +6x 160 diesel generators during outages, which are polluting and pose health and environmental risks.4 140 • The majority of residents who live in informal settlements are not connected to the grid and thus use 120 other energy sources to meet household needs 100 o Kerosene is largely used to meet households’ energy needs, covering 83% of fuel use in 80 Lagos.5 60 40 o Ambient air pollution is the major cause of health damage, due to a large proportion of the urban population relying on highly polluting fuel sources. 20 0 o Accessing electricity and unreliable service pose as major constraints to doing business in Lagos.6 2010 2020 2050 Supply Demand Source: LSDP 2052 [1], [2] & [3] World Bank. 2021. Lagos DPV Final Report. [4] LSDP 2052. [5] World Bank. 2020. “The Cost of Coastal Zone Degradation in Nigeria: Cross River, Delta, and Lagos States. [6] World Bank. 2020. Doing Business 2020: Nigeria. 38 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 3. Livability is lagging, with huge deficits in housing and basic services The demand for water supply services are far from being met… • Only 35% of the population of metropolitan Lagos has access to the public water supply.1 The Lagos Water Corporation (LWC) records a deficit of ~65% of potable water network coverage in all settlements across the state. • Aging water transmission infrastructure exacerbates inefficiencies: the majority of existing water mains are obsolete with corroded pipes that disrupt effective transmission. Public investments in infrastructure has been mostly reactive and uncoordinated, with a persistent focus on expansion of infrastructure over preventive maintenance or rehabilitation of existing assets. • Most households use unimproved water sources, especially in the south and west, or obtain water from informal providers - the cost for informal water is almost always more expensive (1.3–3.0 times greater than the tariffs charged by the state)2 Percent of households with “unconventional”* water sources *Conventional water sources include boreholes and the Lagos Water Corporation. Unconventional includes streams, rivers, truck vendors, hand dug wells, and other sources. Source: Lagos State Government. 2020. “Table 143. What is the source of water supply to dwelling of the household?” Poverty Profile for Lagos State. [1] Lagos Resilience Strategy. 2020. 39 [2] World Bank. 2016. From Oil to Cities: Nigeria’s Next Transformation. DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 3. Livability is lagging, with huge deficits in housing and basic services …As is the demand for sanitation services Only 5% of the population is connected to the public sewerage system1 • Most neighborhoods are not connected to a combined sewer system rather each housing unit makes use of septic tanks or has an on-site facility in place. • Draining systems are in dire need of repair: • Around 40% of the available wastewater treatment infrastructure is either non-functional or in a state of disrepair. 2 This leaves a large volume of wastewater released into the environment without adequate treatment, with attendant risks to the environment and the population. • The dumping of solid waste in the few available drains in Lagos has made the drains unfunctional to dispose of wastewater from homes and industries as well as to transport storm water during rainfall. This is compounded by the frequent and severe flooding which diverts, solid waste sewage and wastewater from drains into streets and neighborhoods.3 [1] Lagos Resilience Strategy. 2020. [2] Environmental Rights Action. 2016. Lagos Water Crisis: Alternative Roadmap for Water Sector. [3] Atufu, C. and Holt, C. 2018. Evaluating the impacts of flooding on the residents of Lagos, Nigeria. 40 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 3. Livability is lagging, with huge deficits in housing and basic services Solid waste management needs far outweigh the current capacities in Lagos • The waste collection rate is 20-30%.1 A major challenge for effective waste collection and disposal is traffic congestion along certain routes which sometimes discourages waste collectors. This is responsible for household waste to remain uncollected on the streets for days. • Only 13% of recyclable waste is recycled2 • The effort of the government to manage solid waste in Lagos effectively is challenged by: ▪ Insufficient facilities: Dumpsites, most notably in Olusosun, are far overloaded. ▪ A wide range of parties involved (state agencies, local councils, private companies and informal channels) paired with lack of coordination, which results in insufficient delivery of services ▪ Insufficient human and technical capacity: inadequate number of waste collection staff, equipment, and waste collection vehicles ▪ Behavior gaps: • General public awareness on the negative consequences of waste (49%) but lack of specific knowledge on recycling/reusing (~80% did not know paper, cardboard and glass are recyclables and 70% unaware of SWM activities) • Lack of sorting habits (only 18% sorted in last 7 days) • Habituation to litter (67% found waste littered or dumped in the streets and gutters while only 4% reported it) [1] & [2] World Bank. 2022. Presentation on “Reducing Marine Plastic Pollution and Creating Plastic Recycling Market in Lagos State, Nigeria,” with data from LAWMA. 41 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 3. Livability is lagging, with huge deficits in housing and basic services Solid waste management is relatively developed in the core but lacking in the newer and less dense east, south and west areas of the state Percent of households that dump or burn disposal Source: Lagos State Government. 2020. Poverty Profile for Lagos State. “Table 145. What is the most commonly used mode for disposal?” The 2052 LSDP includes collection and recycling targets (<90% and 45%) and 17 key initiatives to develop a best-in-class waste management system, including development of a comprehensive waste management plan to guide actions and efforts. 42 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 3. Livability is lagging, with huge deficits in housing and basic services Investments in transport have not kept up with the extension of urban areas and population growth • Heavy reliance on road transport,1 high frequency of usage on the roads and Modal Split in Metro Lagos (2015) insufficient infrastructure contribute to grid locks and incessant traffic congestion Private car • Commuters spend up to 4 hours daily in traffic. 11% • Jobs located in the center (the Island) but many live in the outskirts due to lack of affordable housing in the center, leading to traffic. • Fragmented public transport system dominated by semi-formal operators: Semi- formal • Residents relying heavily on a combination of ‘danfos’ (minibus taxis), ‘kekes’ (three- Walking 45% 38% wheelers) and ‘okadas’ (motorcycle taxis) for 45% of their journeys around the city.2 • Multiple operators run Bus Rapid Transit lines, accounting for just 3% of trips. Semi-formal (danfos, kekes, okadas) Walk • Non-motorized modes (walking, bicycling) are dangerous options for commuters Private car Bicycle due to lack of pedestrian and bicycling infrastructure.3 Encroachment onto the existing Rail Regulated bus road infrastructure by motorists and minibuses (through illegal parking) and by informal Bus Rapid Transit Water transport markets has significantly reduced accessibility of sidewalks. Other Source: Data from LAMATA (2015) via TUMI (n.d.) [1] 98% of commuters use the road, while just 1% use rail and 0.3% use water transport, according to the LSDP 2052. [2] & [3] Transformative Urban Mobility Initiative (TUMI). n.d. 43 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 3. Livability is lagging, with huge deficits in housing and basic services Transport investments are planned and underway, but funding is an issue, and a multi-modal system is needed to improve mobility and livability • Two phases of BRT have been successfully implemented; waterway transport, rail mass transit and bus investments are underway, but delays have occurred due to funding issues. • But investment in developing an integrated, multi-modal urban mobility system (integrated network of waterways, train, bus, non- motorized, etc.) is needed: isolated solutions will not help to solve the problem, a multimodal approach is needed. Routes of LAMATA’s Bus Reform Initiative Existing Newly opened Planned The state launched the first phase of its Bus Reform Initiative in 2020, planned to introduce 700 high-capacity buses along 46 routes throughout the city. The existing routes are in the city core while proposed routes extend into Ibeju and Ikorodu to the east and Badagry, Ojo, and the western region of the core. 44 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 3. Livability is lagging, with huge deficits in housing and basic services Multiple plans and policies exist governing transportation in Lagos, but implementation has been a major challenge • Plans and policies that govern transportation in Lagos include the LSDP, the Lagos State Strategic Transport Master Plan, the Lagos Road Traffic and Administration Law 2012, and the Lagos State Transport Sector Reform Law 2018. • There are also two policies that are yet to be fully initiated, the Draft Non-Motorised Transport Policy (2017) and the Draft Transport Policy (2019). • Implementation of plans and policies has been a major challenge across the board. [1]Transformative Urban Mobility Initiative (TUMI). n.d. 45 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 4. Development taking place in a context of increasing natural disasters and climate change Lagos faces multiple hazards that lead to massive damage and reversal of developmental gains River flood hazard (High) Water scarcity hazard (Medium) • Lagos is at high risk of both river (fluvial) flooding and urban (pluvial) flooding ➢ Flood damages (to assets, economic production and mortality) estimated to cost almost $4 billion each year. Urban flood hazard (High) Extreme heat hazard (Medium) • Other prominent risks include coastal flooding and erosion, as well as extreme heat and droughts, and wildfires ➢ Estimated cost of $1.7 billion each year in loss of assets, economic production, and land as a result of coastal erosion.2 • Climate change is exacerbating risks Coastal flood hazard (Medium) Wildfire hazard (Medium) ThinkHazard! Hazard Levels High Medium Low Very Low Source: GFDRR. ThinkHazard! Lagos. https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/2230-nigeria-lagos [1] CDR International, World Bank. October 2022. Multi-Sectoral Resilient Plan and Pre-Design Studies for Coastal Resilience in Nigeria: Intervention Site Report. 46 [2] World Bank. 2020. The Cost of Coastal Zone Degradation in Nigeria: Cross River, Delta, and Lagos States DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 4. Development taking place in a context of increasing natural disasters and climate change Uncontrolled urban expansion has increased the state’s exposure to natural disasters, a trend that will worsen with climate change 18% of land is on low-lying coastal plain, prone to regular flooding: • Oshodi-Isolo faces the most built-up area exposure to a 10-year flood while Badagri, Eti-Osa and Kosofe becoming the most exposed when considering a 100-year flood.1 • Given rapid population growth in Lagos city, the size of the population exposed has increased steadily over the years • Epe, Badagry and Oshodi-Isolo face the highest population exposure to a 10-year flood, while Epe and Kosofe will experience the most population exposure (>15% of LGA population) to a 100-year flood.2 [1], [2] and maps from World Bank. 2022. Nigeria DRM Analysis Outputs presentation. 47 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 4. Development taking place in a context of increasing natural disasters and climate change Lagos’ coast is affected by severe pressures: unplanned urbanization has increased people’s exposure to floods and erosion risks The erosion process is Coastline Change threatening coastal Average meters communities along the changed per year -3 Lagos shoreline: -1.5 • 86% of the state’s 0 coastline is subject to +1.5 erosion, with an 8% +3 average annual erosion rate of 8.2 meters per year.1 The coast of Ojo, Amuwo Odofin, Apapa and Eti Osa has eroded at a pace of 3 meters/year. • The eastern coast is at higher risk as it is more developed with buildings and infrastructure.2 Source: Delft University of Technology. Long-term Shoreline Changes (1984-2016). Accessed 5 September 2022. https://aqua-monitor.appspot.com/?datasets=shoreline [1] World Bank. 2020. The Cost of Coastal Zone Degradation in Nigeria: Cross River, Delta, and Lagos States. [2] CDR International, World Bank. October 2022. Multi-Sectoral Resilient Plan and Pre-Design Studies for Coastal Resilience in Nigeria: Intervention Site Report. 48 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 4. Development taking place in a context of increasing natural disasters and climate change Land use changes that do not consider environmental impacts threaten the sustainability of Lagos Urban expansion trends have included deforestation, the reclamation of water bodies (along Epe, Badagry, and Ibeju-Lekki LGAs) and the reduction of green spaces: • Uncontrolled development ill-suited to the environment where it is built is a major driver for temperature increases and biodiversity loss in urban areas. • Changes in land use from public to private owners and the disengagement of the private sector for environmental protection in Lagos jeopardize the potential to restore and protect biodiversity. • Green spaces can serve to mitigate urban heat events - a prominent hazard in Lagos - and have the potential to decrease the ambient temperature by at least 5°C. Forest cover, 2000-2018 Forest cover Forest cover loss 49 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 4. Development taking place in a context of increasing natural disasters and climate change Recognizing the growing exposure to climate risks and non-climatic hazards, the government has developed plans and policies to tackle the challenges - these have yet to be fully implemented • With increasing urbanization, population growth and environmental issues (accelerated by inadequate flood prevention and drainage systems), disaster risks are expected to intensify given the expected increasing frequency of extreme climate-related events. • The government estimates about $27-34bn at stake due to the impacts of sea level rise and extreme temperature by 2050.1 • Climate and DRM plans and policies: o In 2018, Lagos joined the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group and developed the Lagos State Climate Action Plan (2021-2025), which includes adaptation and resilience actions. o To be able to deal with major disasters, Lagos State Government has developed a disaster management structure with the establishment of the Lagos State Emergency Management Agency and the Lagos State Safety Commission, in collaboration with the police, traffic authorities, and health services.2 However, disaster management is still encumbered by challenges of capacity, equipment, and integration. o The Lagos Resilience Strategy proposes initiatives to improve disaster risk management. [1] Boston Consulting Group. 2023. 50 [2] Lagos Resilience Strategy, 2020. DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 5. Buildings, infrastructure systems and urban sprawl contribute to pollution and carbon emissions, exacerbating climate risks Buildings are a major contributor to carbon emissions and air pollution • The highest share of greenhouse gas emissions is from stationary energy: Residential buildings account for 21% of these emissions, manufacturing accounts for 23%, while commercial activity accounts for 11%.1 • Due to poor energy systems in buildings, about 80% of Lagos’ population relies on diesel generators during power outages, which are polluting and pose health and environmental risks.2 • Reforms in the building sector are necessary so that buildings are designed and constructed or retrofitted with systems that minimize emissions, through renewable energy sources. The transportation sector is also a major contributor, accounting for 20% of GHG emissions in Lagos. • This could be attributed to urban sprawl and heavy traffic congestion which extends commute times and increases carbon emissions. • Reforms are necessary to minimize emissions such as through increasing use of alternative modes to road transport, supporting mass transit and transit-oriented development, and decarbonizing the public transit fleet. [1] & [2] LSDP 2052. 51 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 5. Buildings, infrastructure systems and urban sprawl contribute to pollution and carbon emissions, exacerbating climate risks The waste sector is the highest source of particulate matter (PM2.5) and third largest source of GHG emissions in Lagos1 • The waste sector contributes about 16% of Lagos’ total emissions.2 • Waste-related emissions are attributed to the limited SWM system, with households generally relying on open dumpsites, open burning and biomass burning for waste disposal: Municipal solid waste (MSW) in dumpsites and its open burning together with biomass burning constitute the highest source of particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) in Lagos, making up about 32% of the PM2.5 concentrations.3 • The main pollution in Lagos can be associated with solid waste/plastic.4 Plastic improperly disposed into drainage channels is clogging the drainage system and leading to floods, with plastic waste flowing into streets - this poses serious environmental degradation and health risk for humans and animals through the breeding of pests and disease vectors and contamination of both surface and groundwater. Insufficient drainage capacity contributes to urban flooding, while paved areas and buildings lacking infiltration and clogged stormwater canals exacerbate flood risks.5 ➢ Policy reform and investments are needed for buildings and infrastructure systems to be upgraded and/or retrofitted to be climate-smart. [1] LSDP 2052. [2] & [3] Akpokodje, J., Weaver, C., Fagbeja, M., Forastiere, F., Spadaro, J., Johnson, T., Ugochukwu, O., Osunderu, O., and Guttikunda, S. 2022. Air quality management planning for Lagos State. The World Bank, August 2022. 52 [4] and [5] CDR International, World Bank. October 2022. Multi-Sectoral Resilient Plan (MSRP) and Pre-Design Studies for Coastal Resilience in Nigeria: Intervention Site Report. DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 6. Significant investment needed to close infrastructure gap and upgrade to climate- smart systems Considering the multitude of challenges Lagos faces with respect to sprawling spatial development, climate resilience and disaster risk management, and quality and availability of basic infrastructure and services to meet the needs of Lagos’ rapidly growing population, significant investment is needed to close the infrastructure gap and upgrade/retrofit buildings and systems to be climate-smart: • Lagos estimates that it needs over USD 50 billion to address an investment gap across transport, water, solid waste management, and information and communications technology.1 • By comparison, Lagos has managed to invest less than USD 1 billion annually over the last decade.2 • At current levels of capital spending, it will take 50 years for Lagos to address the investment gaps. [1] & [2] IFC/WBG. 26 May 2021. Concept Endorsement and Approval Note for Blended Finance Committee for the Lagos City Infrastructure project (40065) 53 DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES Key Take Away Lagos is doing poorly in all indicators of livability and services, necessitating major reforms and investments While Lagos is the largest and fastest growing Heavy reliance on road transport (98%) and insufficient state (3.2% state population AAGR compared to transport infrastructure result in commuters spending 2.6% national pop AAGR), it is ranked among the an average of 4 hours daily in traffic. lowest cities for livability. Only 35% of the population has access to the public Only 14% of households receive steady, reliable water supply; only 5% is connected to the public supply of electricity (>8 hours per day). sewerage system. Housing deficit of ~3.3 million units, with 50-75% of Waste collection rate is 20-30% and only 13% of the population living in informal housing. recyclable waste is recycled. Dumpsites, most notably the Olusosun site, are far overloaded. The city is at high risk of river and urban flood and highly exposed to coastal erosion, with flood Buildings, transportation and the waste sector are major damages estimated to cost almost $4 billion each contributors to GHG emissions while improper solid year and coastal damage estimated at approx. $1.7 waste/plastic disposal is the main source of air pollution, billion each year. contributing 32% of particulate matter (PM2.5). The next section presents an overview of the systems that have led to the challenges that Lagos is facing, followed by recommendations on what can be done to address the challenges and support LASG in realizing its policy goals and objectives. 54 4. Constraints and Drivers of Change Insert images Presentation title 20XX 55 Image credit to Kateregga1 under license by Creative Commons Image credit to Joshua Doubek under license by Creative Commons CONSTRAINTS AND DRIVERS OF CHANGE Overview Four main constraints are holding Lagos back from fully realizing its development potential Four inter-linked systems are currently holding Lagos back from fully realizing its development potential and its role in leading economic growth and poverty reduction for the country and region, BUT they can be transformed to become drivers of change: 1. Weak urban governance and finance systems to deliver sufficient housing and services needed to meet the demands of Lagos’ growing population 2. Ineffective urban planning system holds down sustainable growth and exacerbates informality 3. Fragmented land administration stymies affordable housing development, exacerbates informality, hampers economic development and limits revenues 4. A lagging business environment inhibits private development, productivity and inclusive economic growth These four constraints are discussed in this section. 56 CONSTRAINTS AND DRIVERS OF CHANGE 1. Weak Urban Governance and Finance Systems Governance issues pose the most significant constraint to the sustainable growth and development of Lagos, affecting all other constraints Three interrelated governance challenges hold back effective and efficient urban management and service delivery in Lagos: 1. There is a “missing” city level to plan effectively, coordinate land use planning with service provision, and develop and manage urban infrastructure and services systems • The Nigerian governance system does not include a unit of government for urban areas - instead federal, state and local governments provide urban public goods and services. • The 1999 Constitution defines the functions of federal, state and local governments. However, in the case of Lagos, some of the functions of local governments have been taken over by the state government. This has negative impacts on the effective delivery of urban services. • As a state, Lagos has constitutionally defined functions and powers that go far beyond a municipal or metropolitan mandate, and thus, is less focused on purely urban priorities than municipal governments would be. But the state government plays a de facto role as city manager, with Lagos’ 20 local government areas (LGAs) and 37 local council development areas (LCDAs) playing a minor role, raising concerns about local accountability and citizen engagement. • In practice, federal, state, and local levels often overlap in providing urban services, leading to inefficiency and little accountability. At the state level, functional responsibilities are scattered across 168 ministries, departments and agencies. 57 CONSTRAINTS AND DRIVERS OF CHANGE 1. Weak Urban Governance and Finance Systems ROLES OF STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS IN THE PROVISION OF SERVICES 1 Governance issues pose the most significant constraint to the sustainable growth and development of Lagos, State Local Reality Secondary and higher Primary education affecting all other constraints education State handles education 2. Capacity challenges within each unit of governance slows service expansion Public hospitals Rural health and primary State handles and hinders quality of service provision health centres public hospitals while LGAs handles rural and primary • The state government is responsible for many urban services typically health centres administered at the municipal or metropolitan level, but since the state’s functions and powers go beyond a city-level mandate, institutional capacity Construction Maintenance of feeder State takes the lead role in the is lacking to prioritize focus on investing and expanding urban service and maintenance of state roads maintenance of feeder road networks. roads and road lightening • At the lowest scale, LGAs/LCDAs have responsibility for some urban infrastructure (e.g., functions but have low capacity for performing them and little fiscal and collector roads, parks) administrative autonomy. LGAs/LCDAs operate as deconcentrated arms of Water supply Sanitation infrastructure State take the lead role in the state government – Local Council Managers are state-appointed and and services (provision the provision of drains and typically are not technically qualified to perform on their mandate. of street drains, sewage sewage disposal while LGAs 3. Weak mechanisms for coordination across jurisdictions and amongst the disposal, provision of handle provision of public toilets) public toilets different parties involved in delivering municipal services deter successful service planning, investment, operation, and maintenance. Blurred Housing Solid waste collection State handles housing and responsibilities across government levels and agencies makes upward and and disposal solid waste management downward collaboration more challenging and thus hinders efficient and Town and City Planning Provision of craft and State handles planning, effective service delivery and operations. small industries LGAs handle craft and small industries Institutional changes are necessary to more effectively and efficiently bring Creation and regulation State carry out oversight about a greater focus on tackling urban issues and service provision. of markets, stalls, functions over the regulation slaughterhouses etc. of slaughterhouses [1] Federal government-provided services include, inter alia, electricity, federal roads, federal Source: Constitution of the Federal Installation Republic ofState of street Nigeria 1999 handles 58 railways and air transport. lighting CONSTRAINTS AND DRIVERS OF CHANGE 1. Weak Urban Governance and Finance Systems The lack of an urban or municipal finance system results in poor ability to deliver sufficient urban goods and services for Lagos’ growing population • The state government is expected to deliver statewide public goods and services and has constitutionally defined functions and powers (such as legislative and regulatory authority) that would generally be seen as going well beyond any municipal or metropolitan mandate. • Local governments have constitutionally prescribed mandates and fiscal powers that are more restricted than is typically the case for municipalities in other countries. Local councils have very little autonomy and much more limited fiscal and financial management capacity than the state government. This is attributed to two main factors:1 • The share of federally collected revenues allocated to local governments flows through the state government, providing the state with the means to “deduct” charges from federal transfers for the functions the state has taken over from local governments – this leaves local governments with little revenue to support delivering on their mandate. • The State also exercises control over local governments through expenditure authorization powers, and local government annual budgets are subject to prior approval by the state Ministry of Local Government and Community Affairs. Essentially, budgetary resources at the local level are spent in accordance with decisions made by state governments. • As a result of this system, local governments are marginalized players in urban finance, and urban public goods and services are provided and financed in a largely ad hoc or residual way. The current system is insufficient to address the needs of Lagos’ residents. [1] World Bank. 2016. From Oil to Cities: Nigeria’s Next Transformation. 59 CONSTRAINTS AND DRIVERS OF CHANGE 1. Weak Urban Governance and Finance Systems Several features of Lagos’ finance system further present LAGOS STATE REVENUES BY SOURCE (2019) challenges for sustainable development (1/4) Other federal Regularization Income from other services fees, etc. 1. Revenues are insufficient to support needed capital investments transfers 4% 1% 0% Investment and interest At the state level: Refund for income road 1% • Own source revenues dominate (known as internally generated revenues construction [IGR]) ~70% of total state revenues, via state-administered taxes and fees, BUT: 10% • IGR has increasingly been below targets1 • Tax collection has been limited compared to its potential: Property taxes have great potential but play a minor role (2% of total IGR)2 • Federal transfers are also a major source (mainly through statutory allocations and VAT), contributing ~30% of total state revenues, BUT: • Transfer amounts are contingent on oil and gas revenues, which are highly vulnerable to fluctuations in world energy prices, and Statutory allocaton and • Capital transfers (such as the refund for road construction at 10% of VAT transfer Income tax revenues) are ad hoc. 51% 26% At the local level: LGAs receive very little federal transfers and local IGRs are Contract tax insignificant to support sustainable urban development3 Fines and 2% fees Other taxes Entertainment tax Property tax 3% 0% 1% 1% [1] LSDP 2052 Source: World Bank. 2020. Lagos State Finances: What’s Next? [2] LSDP 2052 (presentation). [3] World Bank. 2016. From Oil to Cities: Nigeria’s Next Transformation. 60 CONSTRAINTS AND DRIVERS OF CHANGE 1. Weak Urban Governance and Finance Systems Several features of Lagos’ finance system further present challenges for sustainable development (2/4) 1. Revenues are insufficient to support needed capital investments Existing tax base coverage and collection rates could be much improved: • Unlike other states, Lagos derives more than half its revenues from state-administered taxes and fees. • Personal income tax (PAYE) is by far the most important, accounting for over 50% of all recurrent revenues in 2019, BUT:  Nearly all PAYE revenues are derived through withholding by employers, leaving businesses, large and small, out of the tax net.  The state is now working to improve collection from large businesses, high net worth individuals (HNWI) and the informal sector: incomes from businesses and property of HNWI are under-reported while small-scale traders and other businesses do not report incomes at all. • Property taxes have great potential to increase IGR, BUT tax base is limited due to incomplete land registration and rates remain low.1 The current yield of property tax is trivial (equivalent to US$ 0.43 per capita in 2019 compared to US$ 160 per capita in Johannesburg). Poor enforcement is also an issue. • The state is working on strengthening tax administration (PAYE and property taxation), aiming to update at least 50% of records of all properties in urban areas, to increase the tax base.2 [1] World Bank. 2021. Lagos finance presentation dated 17 March 2021. 61 [2] World Bank. 2020. States Fiscal Transparency, Accountability and Sustainability PforR Program Paper (P162009) CONSTRAINTS AND DRIVERS OF CHANGE 1. Weak Urban Governance and Finance Systems Several features of Lagos’ finance system further LAGOS STATE EXPENDITURES BY FUNCTION present challenges for sustainable development general (3/4) debt amoritization public services 17% 2. Spending trends are unclear 25% social • In 2020, the state spent N 1,168 billion: ¼ on general public protection 1% services (incl pensions and interest on debt), ¼ on economic affairs (mainly transport), 20% on education and health, and 3% on housing. education 11% • Debt repayment makes a major claim at 17% of expenditures. public order, • Recurring expenditures are high and increased by 4% in safety 2020.1 For local governments, limited revenues result in 4% majority of expenditures going towards the costs of local sports, official salaries. culture… Trends in Overall Deficit health 40% • Levels of spending on operations and maintenance of Percent of revenues 9% infrastructure are difficult to determine—partly because housing, economic 20% detailed information on expenditures is not available and community environmental affairs 0% services protection 23% partly because it is unclear as to whether maintenance 6% 3% 2017 2018 2019 spending is systematically classified and recorded as -20% recurrent or capital.2 -40% • Late-2019, Lagos was either running a surplus (according to source of data income statements) or just breaking even (according to cash cash flow income statement flow statements). Source: World Bank, 2021. [1] World Bank. 2021. Lagos finance presentation dated 17 March 2021. [2] World Bank. 2016. From Oil to Cities: Nigeria’s Next Transformation. 62 CONSTRAINTS AND DRIVERS OF CHANGE 1. Weak Urban Governance and Finance Systems Several features of Lagos’ finance system further present challenges for sustainable development (4/4) Trends in Liabilities 3. Debt levels are extremely high, raising rollover risks 1,200.0 • Borrowing is critical, just to pay the principal on old debt: in 2019, 1,000.0 Lagos borrowed N 118 billion but spent N 153 billion repaying 800.0 N billions principal on old debt, forcing it to draw down N31 billion in reserves. 600.0 • With a total debt burden of N1.04tn in 2020, up by 19.73% from N871.33bn in 2019, Lagos State is the most indebted state in the 400.0 country.1 The state’s debt profile is rising rapidly due to the city’s ambitious plan to speed up completion of several infrastructure 200.0 projects and to boost the state's technology capacity and food - security.2 2017 2018 2019 • To finance capital investments proposed under the LSDP, additional arrears ST debt borrowing will be required given low revenues – efforts to increase other current liabilities LT debt revenues are highly necessary to finance needed capital pensions other LT liabilities investments. Source: World Bank, 2020. [1] BudgIT. 2021. State of States report. [2] Fitch Ratings. 2022. https://www.fitchratings.com/research/international-public-finance/fitch-affirms-lagos-state-at-b-outlook-stable-02-09-2022. 63 CONSTRAINTS AND DRIVERS OF CHANGE 2. Ineffective Urban Planning System The absence of municipal and metropolitan authorities with specific responsibility for urban areas compromises the effectiveness of planning in Lagos and hampers sustainable development • The Ministry of Physical Planning and Urban Development (MPPUD) has responsibility over preparation of regional and sub-regional urban master plans, and development plans. Local governments are not involved in planning their urban areas. • Various plans have been developed, including the Masterplan of Metropolitan Lagos (1980 - 2000) and 13 model city plans: 8 have been completed, 2 are on-going and 3 are in draft and awaiting approval. Some lower order plans - for small towns and urban regeneration plans for slum communities - have also been commissioned. But across the board, plan implementation has been slow largely due to administrative bottlenecks and because plans do not have legal backing – the state lacks a law that makes physical plans the binding framework to guide development. • Other plan deficiencies include: • Land use plans are overwhelmingly aspirational. They lack infrastructure and investment density to match population density and are not linked to a financing plan. • Plans envisage fully serviced peri-urban developments that are remote from existing urban realities, but the lack of reliable population data impedes effective projections and planning, while feasibility studies are lacking for sound site selection for new development areas. • Limited citizen engagement: Citizens are not meaningfully engaged in the planning process. Though plans are public documents, they are largely inaccessible to members of the public. Citizens typically only interact with the planning agencies during enforcement and/or demolition exercises. • Plans are made in isolation, leading to inefficient development and increasing the costs of service provision. Development in Lagos is largely hinged on economic planning, hence the LSDP. Strategic plans, sectoral plans and urban master plans are not coordinated. Resiliency to climate and disaster risks not integrated into master plans. • The metropolitan plan is outdated – the LSDP calls for the creation of a comprehensive strategic master plan for the state as one of its key initiatives. • There is an urgent need to integrate existing and proposed master plans into a comprehensive metropolitan plan that strategically coordinates land development and service provision. 64 CONSTRAINTS AND DRIVERS OF CHANGE 2. Ineffective Urban Planning System Inadequate plans and a deficient regulatory system hold down economic development and exacerbate informality • In terms of effectiveness of plans, many plans are not followed as most development takes place informally and plans lack regulatory instruments to enforce compliance. • The complicated and cost-prohibitive planning permit and building approval process plays a significant role, posing as a major constraint to doing business in Lagos,1 leading residents to evade the process and resulting in the proliferation of informality and unsafe buildings. • The planning permit and building approval process involves numerous agencies and ministries, and limited use of e-applications means permit processing is mostly conducted manually. The period of processing planning and building permits is extended due to administrative bottlenecks such as file movement, missing files or documents, unavailability of officials, and change of officers. A procedure is in place to reduce the permit approval process from 90 to 30 days, but in reality, the process takes 42 days.2 • There is a special fast track building plan approval application system that allows for quick processing of applications within one week of the application, but this is based on the payment of 500% of the assessment fees on the application, making this cost-prohibitive for the majority of residents - development control is misinterpreted as a revenue generating activity, hence local permitting offices (which are under State supervision) are aggressive in enforcement. • Unsafe buildings get constructed as a result of citizens evading the permitting process and weak enforcement of building codes and construction regulation. Building collapse occurs as a result of poor workmanship and ineffective supervision, use of substandard materials, hasty construction, illegal conversion/change of use, and/or poor equipment adopted in construction. [1] & [2] World Bank. 2020. Doing Business in Nigeria. 65 CONSTRAINTS AND DRIVERS OF CHANGE 3. Fragmented Land Administration Land administration remains a major bottleneck to economic and planned growth and also contributes to informality Fragmented and bifurcated land administration impedes the efficient delivery of land for development. Three core challenges constrain the functioning of a healthy land market in Lagos: 1. Most land claims are insecure and even state-granted titles can be revoked: The 1978 Land Use Act (LUA), the legal framework for land administration in Nigeria, confers all powers of ownership of lands on the state governors and their Land Use and Allocation Committee, and effectively reduces all claims on land to leasehold status (via a Certificate of Occupancy), vesting all ownership (freehold) in the hands of the government. The LUA grants governors the authority to revoke statutory and customary rights of occupancy if the land is required for “public purpose.” Thus, a C of O does not constitute title security. 2. High barriers and costs to register land mean that few property owners bother registering, exacerbating informality and vulnerability: • Land administration is bifurcated between statutory and customary land management. Most land transactions are conducted informally, with customary land passed down over generations and not registered by the State. Acquiring formal title involves double purchase payments: to the indigenous land owner and then to the State in the form of a ground lease payment and to obtain a C of O. • The LUA recognizes informal land transactions and expects the purchaser to perfect the title to land; however, the land registration/regularization process is costly, lengthy and cumbersome, leading many citizens to circumvent the process, driving low land registration. • Lack of tenure leaves the majority of residents vulnerable to forced eviction in light of government-led urban development efforts. Many informal settlements around the urban core have been earmarked for either demolition or relocation through various model city plans. Usually, forced eviction comes with no compensation or alternative arrangements. When alternatives are given, the evictees are relocated to remote areas, where they are faced with more livelihood challenges. 3. State and local governments have little information about the location, ownership, or use of specific parcels: • The Lagos State Lands Bureau (LSLB) is responsible for land administration while the Office of the State Surveyor General handles mapping, but the land registration database and the cadastral mapping database are not linked, leading to inefficiencies. • Lack of land information constrains urban planning, limits private sector investment, and thus hinders sustainable development of the megacity. It also limits the collection of taxes and thus the ability of the governments to raise essential resources for investments. 66 CONSTRAINTS AND DRIVERS OF CHANGE 3. Fragmented Land Administration The state government has carried out several reforms to improve the land administration system, with the aim of attracting investment, but challenges persist • Other land challenges prevalent in Lagos include land speculation after legal acquisition, locking land available for needed housing development, and land grabbing. • Land reforms include: • Streamlining the registration process to issue a C of O within 30 days: In reality, the process can take 105 days.1 • Efforts made to digitize land information, but damaged records impede the process. • The 2020 Lagos State Land Use Charge Law provides for taxation of vacant properties to spur development and limit speculation.2 Occupancy rights can also be revoked when land allocated for a proposed development has not commenced construction within a period of 2 years. However, this is not always the case if the allottee has political influence. • The Land Grabbers Law of 2016 provides for 10 years imprisonment or a fine up to N5 million naira (about $13,000) or both to punish offenders.3 The law has helped reduce the number of land grabbing cases. • Further land reforms are necessary to provide better institutions for urban land management and improve tenure security. Once in place, they will improve land regularization and better manage growth of slums, simplify registration for firms and enable a better business environment, foster better planning and urban development, and support increased property tax revenue generation. [1] World Bank. 2020. Doing Business in Nigeria. [2] & [3] World Bank. 2022. Land Administration and Management in Nigeria. 67 CONSTRAINTS AND DRIVERS OF CHANGE 4. A Lagging Business Environment Cross-cutting constraints contribute to a high cost of doing business in Lagos, inhibiting economic development Key constraints include: • Inadequate infrastructure is the biggest contributor to low productivity in key sectors • Insufficient power, transport, water and sanitation, and ICT infrastructure • Market access/connectivity within the state is constrained by the urban spatial structure – jobs located in the center (the Island) but many live in the outskirts due to high cost of living/lack of affordable housing in the urban center, leading to traffic. Public transport is limited outside the urban core, while the poor intra-city road and rail systems are in poor condition. • The private sector could play a bigger role to address the infrastructure gap, but the PPP institutional and regulatory framework needs to be strengthened. • Poor access to land due to inefficient land administration • The private sector faces significant hurdles in identifying land for investment, with uncertainty around ownership, and conflicts ensue before investments begin. • Without geographic systems and data, investors and the state are unable to determine the best-suited locations for investment. • Cumbersome building permit process also hampers business development 68 CONSTRAINTS AND DRIVERS OF CHANGE 4. A Lagging Business Environment Constraints to inclusive economic development:1 • Poor access to finance, especially for Lagos’ high share of MSMEs: • At the national level, a weak regulatory framework for microfinance banks • MSMEs lack technical capacity to make successful loan applications • For informal sector actors, high compliance costs to formalize their businesses. • Weak competition in consumer product markets - retail prices are generally higher in Lagos than in other major cities in the rest of the world. Removing restrictions to competition could create new markets, and boost growth and welfare. • Poor human capital outcomes adversely affect labor quality, productivity, and economic growth • Working population lacks the requisite skill sets and education. • The government’s low expenditure on health over the past two decades has limited the expansion of highly cost- effective interventions, stunting health outcomes and exposing a large share of the population to catastrophic health expenditures. • Other constraints include ongoing violence, insecurity and corruption • Together, these constraints reduce the incentive to formalize business activity, resulting in the high rate of informality and low productivity. 69 [1] International Finance Corporation, World Bank. 2020. Creating Markets in Nigeria: A Country Private Sector Diagnostic. October 2020. CONSTRAINTS AND DRIVERS OF CHANGE Key Take-Aways • Lagos face a multitude of challenges and constraints, many of which are interlinked. Resilience and social equity are cross-cutting challenges that are impacted by multiple sectors. • The bottlenecks hamper sustainable spatial growth, access to basic services and infrastructure, and the effective management of the mega-city. • However, Lagos has a key opportunity to intervene to better plan and manage the development of the state and to make necessary investments to foster resilient, integrated and inclusive growth through a coordinated multi-sectoral approach. • Though change will not happen overnight! It is critical to sequence policy reforms and prioritize interventions in order to achieve the desired outcomes. • The next section presents a plan for Lagos to realize its development potential and to put the state and local governments on a path to support improved productivity, livability and poverty reduction. 70 5. Recommendations To Harness the Development Potential of Lagos Presentation title 20XX 71 Image credit to S.aderogba under license by Creative Commons RECOMMENDATIONS What needs to be done: a coordinated and integrated multi-sectoral approach to support resilient and inclusive development and prosperity Pathway to Harness the Development Potential of Lagos • A coordinated and integrated multi-sectoral approach is needed to Four Areas of Intervention: unlock Lagos’ full development potential and its role in leading economic growth and poverty reduction for the country and region. 1. Strengthen governance, planning and • Reforms across sectors are urgently needed to address the needs of Lagos’ finance systems to support coordinated rapidly growth population and to support sustainable development of and sustainable growth and development - Lagos - in a business-as-usual scenario without adequate planning and a multisectoral planning and investment coordination of investments, the economic costs and the vulnerability of Lagos’ population will increase exponentially with recurring natural disasters vehicle is highly needed; increasingly driven by climate change. 2. Invest in integrated and climate–smart • Through the multi-sector analytical review of Lagos, four interlinked “areas infrastructure and services to improve of interventions” are identified to enable LASG to realize the policy livability and resilience and foster aspirations and objectives stated in the LSDP, the Lagos Resilience Strategy, economic growth; the Lagos Climate Action Plan and other government spatial and sectoral plans. 3. Activate land and housing markets for improved planning, livability and economic • For each intervention area, a set of recommendations is proposed. In addition, short and medium- to long-term development initiatives and growth; and priority actions are identified to implement each recommendation. These 4. Support inclusive economic are presented in this concluding section. development for increased productivity • Moving ahead, major challenges will include prioritizing investment needs and improved livelihoods and choosing optimal forms of service provision, including the private sector’s role, and clearly defining the functions and powers of institutions. 72 Multi Sector Diagnostics Development Trends & Challenges Guiding Government Programs and Plans Constraints & Opportunities Principles Vision, Goals and Objectives Prioritization Process Stakeholder Consultations 1. Strengthen Urban 4. Foster Economic 2. Invest in Climate-Smart 3. Activate Land and Areas of Governance, Planning and Development and Infrastructure and Services Housing Markets Inclusive Growth Intervention Finance Systems 1.1: Strengthen urban management and 2.1: Improve urban mobility through 3.1: Improve land administration 4.1: Prioritize infrastructure service delivery through governance development of an enhanced through complete digitization of investment that creates jobs reform, cross-sectoral digital transportation network that is integrated, regularization process and capacity and promotes economic Recommendations coordination, and technical and financial multi-modal and supports carbon building to increase tenure security, development. capacity building. emissions reduction. foster better planning and urban 4.2: Enhance process of development, enable private 1.2: Support sustainable growth of Lagos 2.2: Develop an integrated solid waste doing business. investment and support increased through community-driven and climate management system (waste minimization, property tax revenue generation. 4.3: Support inclusive and disaster-risk informed spatial collection, separation and treatment) economic development. planning and development. through comprehensive planning, 3.2: Increase access to formal, investment and capacity building. affordable and climate- and disaster- proofed housing through 2.3: Increase access to water supply and comprehensive planning, increased sanitation services and develop an private sector participation, innovative integrated water management system that design, housing finance and slum coordinates water supply, sewerage, upgrading programs. stormwater drainage, wastewater treatment, solid waste management and land use planning. 2.4: Increase access to reliable energy through implementing policy reform and supporting renewable energy sources, such as solar. RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 1: Strengthen Urban Governance, Planning and Finance Systems Recommendation 1.1: Strengthen urban management and service delivery through governance reform, cross-sectoral digital coordination, and technical and financial capacity building (1/2) Initiative Timeframe Leading Institution(s) Support more effective and efficient delivery of services through improvements in state and M, L LASG local governance Establish a metropolitan-wide development agency to support integrated planning, M Ministry of Physical Planning and Urban Development coordinated service provision and land development (MPPUD), the Office of Public-Private Partnerships (OPPP), and other state agencies Develop a multi-sectoral governance framework for effective capital planning S, M MEPB in collaboration with relevant MDAs (this would be among the responsibilities of the Lagos development authority once established) Establish protocols and procedures for inter-agency coordination S, M MEPB (Lagos development authority once established) Develop a digital platform for inter-agency coordination M MEPB (Lagos development authority once established) Strengthen technical capacity of urban service sector authorities, LGAs and LCDAs to M, L LASG, in partnership with Ministry of Local Government improve delivering on mandates and Community Affairs, MDAs responsible for regulating urban services (e.g., LAMATA, LAWMA, any newly established metropolitan-level regulatory body), LGAs and LCDAs 74 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 1: Strengthen Urban Governance, Planning and Finance Systems Recommendation 1.1: Strengthen urban management and service delivery through governance reform, cross-sectoral digital coordination, and technical and financial capacity building (2/2) Initiative Timeframe Leading Institution(s) Improve performance and enhance accountability and transparency through improved data M, L LASG, in partnership with Ministry of Local Government management and Community Affairs, MoF, MEPB and other MDAs Bolster state finance system to support needed investments through technical capacity M, L Ministry of Finance, MEPB, Lagos Internal Revenue building to improve OSR generation, strengthen the regulatory framework for PPPs and tools Service to incentivize private investment, and strengthen management of public investments and expenditure Recommendation 1.2: Support sustainable growth of Lagos through community-driven and climate and disaster-risk informed spatial planning and development (1/2) Strategy Timeframe Leading Institution(s) Develop a visionary and coherent metropolitan-level spatial plan S–M MPPUD (Lagos development authority once established), in partnership with MEPB Increase effectiveness of plans S–M LASG in partnership with MPPUD (Lagos development authority once established) Support technical capacity building for agencies involved in planning activities to improve S–M MPPUD (Lagos development authority once established), plan implementation, coordination, monitoring and enforcement Physical Planning Permit Authority (LASPPPA), Building Control Agency (LASBCA), Urban Renewal Authority (LASURA), Ministry of Waterfront Infrastructure Development 75 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 1: Strengthen Urban Governance, Planning and Finance Systems Recommendation 1.2: Support sustainable growth of Lagos through community-driven and climate and disaster-risk informed spatial planning and development (2/2) Initiative Timeframe Leading Institution(s) Promote urban regeneration and compact mixed-use development to counter urban sprawl S–M MPPUD (Lagos development authority once established) and reduce carbon emissions Where urban expansion is necessary, ensure that new development is economically, socially S–M MPPUD (Lagos development authority once established and environmentally sound Develop urban landscape design guidelines for resilient public spaces S–M MPPUD Develop a greening program to increase provision of green infrastructure and mitigate S-M MPPUD (Lagos development authority once established), urban heat island effect in partnership with Ministry of Environment and Water Resources (MEWR) and Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) Implement Environmental Management Tools S-M MPPUD (Lagos development authority once established), in partnership with Ministry of Environment and Water Resources (MEWR) and Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) Restore critical wetland sites to promote biodiversity M-L MEWR, in partnership with MPPUD, Ministry of Waterfront Infrastructure Development Develop building material and solar guidelines for new construction S-M MPPPUD Develop a pilot urban eco-district program S-M MPPUD in partnership with MEMR 76 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 2: Invest in climate–smart infrastructure and services Recommendation 2.1: Improve urban mobility through development of an enhanced transportation network that is integrated, multi-modal and supports carbon emissions reduction Initiative Timeframe Leading Institution(s) Develop a multi-modal urban mobility system M Ministry of Transportation in partnership with Ministry of Waterfront Infrastructure Development, LAMATA, Lagos State Waterways Authority and MPPUD Continue efforts to improve mass transit solutions while investing in smaller capacity modes M-L LAMATA in partnership with MPPUD of urban mobility Decarbonize public transport fleet S-M LAMATA in partnership with MEMR Recommendation 2.2: Develop an integrated solid waste management system - waste minimization, collection, separation and treatment - through comprehensive planning, investment and capacity building (1/2) Develop an integrated solid waste management plan and platform S–M Ministry of Environment and Water Resources; LAWMA Develop new solid waste management infrastructure and rehabilitate infrastructure M–L Ministry of Environment and Water Resources; LAWMA Improve waste collection and separation M LAWMA Develop replicable pilot municipal residential and public schools recycling and composting S–M Ministry of Environment and Water Resources; LAWMA programs Build capacity to improve institutional effectiveness in waste management and raise public S–M Ministry of Environment and Water Resources; LAWMA awareness Establish and enforce penalties on open burning of waste and littering S-M Ministry of Environment and Water Resources 77 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 2: Invest in climate–smart infrastructure and services Recommendation 2.3: Increase access to water supply and sanitation services and develop an integrated urban water management system that coordinates water supply, sewerage, stormwater drainage, wastewater treatment, solid waste management and land use planning Initiative Timeframe Leading Institution(s) Develop a comprehensive and realizable integrated urban water management system with state-wide S-M Ministry of the Environment and Water coverage Resources and Lagos State Wastewater Management Office Invest in new WSS infrastructure to extend access to unserved/underserved areas and rehabilitate existing M–L Ministry of the Environment and Water infrastructure for more efficient service delivery Resources and Lagos State Wastewater Management Office Build financial and technical capacity for improved operations and maintenance of WSS infrastructure M Ministry of the Environment and Water Resources and Lagos State Wastewater Management Office Develop tools and assessments for improved flood risk and coastal erosion management S-M Ministry of the Environment and Water Resources Recommendation 2.4: Increase access to reliable energy through implementing policy reform and supporting clean energy sources, such as solar (1/3) Implement a comprehensive energy reform policy, in coordination with federal regulators S–M Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Improve financing for renewal energy sources M Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Increase commercial use of renewable energy M Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Support the operations for renewal energy S–M Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Create an enabling environment for renewal energy delivery S–M Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Develop a pilot urban eco-district program S-M MPPUD in partnership with Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources 78 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 3: Activate land and housing markets Recommendation 3.1: Improve land administration through complete digitization of regularization process and capacity building to increase tenure security, foster better planning and urban development, enable private investment and support increased property tax revenue generation Initiative Timeframe Leading Institution(s) Develop a comprehensive land information system S–M Lands Bureau, Office of the State Surveyor General, MPPUD, government agencies that own land assets Strengthen capacity to increase efficiency of land titling and registration processes S–M Lands Bureau, Office of the State Surveyor General Enforce vacant land taxation program to prevent land banking and stimulate housing development S–M MPPUD and Lagos Internal Revenue Services (LIRS) Identify mechanisms to improve property tax collection S–M LASG in partnership with Ministry of Finance Recommendation 3.2: Increase access to formal, affordable and climate- and disaster-proofed housing through comprehensive planning, increased private sector participation, innovative design, housing finance and slum upgrading programs Develop a state-level comprehensive housing policy/strategy to improve access to quality affordable housing S–M Ministry of Housing and limit the proliferation of informal settlements Incentivize private sector participation for the development of affordable housing S–M Lands Bureau, LASPPPA, Ministry of Housing, LASURA, MPPUD Support innovative building strategies to reduce costs of construction thereby increasing housing S–M Ministry of Housing, MPPUD affordability Expand slum upgrading program to include onsite housing improvements M Ministry of Housing in partnership with LASURA , LASBCA and MPPUD 79 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 4: Foster economic development and inclusive growth Recommendation 4.1: Prioritize infrastructure investments that create jobs and promote economic development Initiative Timeframe Leading Institution(s) Support infrastructure investments (power, water supply and sanitation, SWM, transport and ICT) M-L MEPB Recommendation 4.2: Enhance process of doing business Support further building permit process reform S-M Physical Planning Permit Authority (LASPPPA) Improve access to land through land administration reform M Lands Bureau, Office of the State Surveyor General Recommendation 4.3: Support inclusive economic development Prioritize human capital investments to develop job skills and improve labor quality and productivity through S–M Ministry of Wealth Creation job skills training and education and Employment; Ministry of Youth and Sports; Ministry of Education Remove restrictions to competition to provide more affordable access to goods and increase welfare M Ministry of Commerce, Industry & Cooperatives; MEPB Provide support to MSMEs to improve access to finance M Ministry of Finance; Ministry of Commerce, Industry & Cooperatives; Ministry of Wealth Creation and Employment Reduce compliance costs to support increased business formalization S-M Ministry of Commerce, Industry & Cooperatives 80 In summary, to support LASG in advancing implementation of its policy strategies and plans and to fully realize the development potential of the mega-city, Lagos needs to work on: Institutional Climate-Smart Strengthening Land and Housing Inclusive Economic Infrastructure and (governance, planning Market Activation Development Service Investments and finance) 81 6. Annexes Detailed Development Initiatives and Selected Actions Studies prepared under LADP References Presentation title 20XX 82 Image credit to S.aderogba under license by Creative Commons Detailed Development Initiatives and Selected Actions Presentation title 83 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 1: Strengthen Urban Governance, Planning and Finance Systems Recommendation 1.1: Strengthen urban management and service delivery through governance reform, cross-sectoral digital coordination, and technical and financial capacity building (1/4) Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Support more effective and • Review of MDAs and their functions to eliminate overlapping mandates. State governance could be LASG efficient delivery of services streamlined to reduce inefficient staffing and spending. through improvements in state • Support true decentralization of urban governance through strengthening human and technical capacities and local governance of LGAs and LCDAs to perform functions constitutionally delegated to local governments. • Support financial capacity building and fiscal autonomy of LGAs and LCDAs to empower them to deliver on their mandates. This could include strengthening local governments’ organizational and financial capacity by addressing critical human resource gaps and improving own-source revenue generation. Establish a metropolitan-wide • Consider establishing an independent development agency responsible for integrated development Ministry of development authority to support planning and coordinating major infrastructure investments and service provision at the metropolitan-wide Physical integrated planning, coordinated level or consider upgrading an existing agency (i.e., LASURA) to resume such role. Planning and service provision and land Urban • Involve the agency in streamlining PPPs by working closely with the Office of Public-Private Partnerships development Development (OPPP) to facilitate cooperation between the private sector and MDAs. (MPPUD), the • Develop a legislative framework to require cooperation between asset owners and operators for Office of Public- coordinated capital investments. This could be through establishing a board that includes high-level Private representation from each of the state-led planning and development agencies (such as physical planning, Partnerships transport, water, solid waste management, etc.) as well as representatives from each local government. (OPPP), and other state agencies 84 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 1: Strengthen Urban Governance, Planning and Finance Systems Recommendation 1.1: Strengthen urban management and service delivery through governance reform, cross-sectoral digital coordination, and technical and financial capacity building (2/4) Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Develop a multi-sectoral governance • Develop a policy and procedures manual that will set out the requirements for asset owners and MEPB in framework for effective capital operators to collect data, disclose and share information on their programs and projects, including collaboration with planning location, scope, schedule and budget, and support collaborative efforts to avoid and resolve conflicts relevant MDAs between projects and pursue opportunities to bundle work to reduce construction cost, time and (this would be impact on the public. among the responsibilities of • Produce a recommended hierarchy of committees and working groups that will facilitate joint the Lagos planning and coordination. development • Develop an action log that will serve as an official record of mutual commitments. authority once established) Establish protocols and procedures • Develop a coordination methodology and tools to manage the flow of plans, contractual MEPB (Lagos for inter-agency coordination requirements, and key performance indicators for each asset owner/service provider. development authority once • Establish protocols for the number of years prior to construction during which each type of capital established) project should be announced by its sponsor, the type of information about each capital project that is required for effective coordination, and the manner in which each type of project, based on cost and complexity, will navigate through a series of stage-gates. • The coordination methodology will specify the procedures to identify and implement opportunities to bundle projects that can be delivered by a single stakeholder, and to either accelerate or delay projects to ensure that the overall sequence is the most efficient and in best interest of the public. 85 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 1: Strengthen Urban Governance, Planning and Finance Systems Recommendation 1.1: Strengthen urban management and service delivery through governance reform, cross-sectoral digital coordination, and technical and financial capacity building (3/4) Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Develop a digital • Develop a database of infrastructure and utilities that are required to support urban development and management MEPB (Lagos platform for inter- programs. This task will entail the acquisition of software, staff training across all State agencies on how to use the development agency database and ensuring the secure management of the system. authority once coordination • Develop a geographical information and management system to employ the database proactively for coordinated established) program planning, delivery and lifecycle operations and maintenance. An initial goal could be established to complete GIS mapping of 50% of urban properties. Strengthen • Support building technical capacity for the preparation of investment plans for each urban service sector. This LASG, in partnership technical capacity includes collecting data from reliable sources and using evidence-based decision-making for proposed investments. with Ministry of of urban service LGAs and LCDAs should be involved in identifying the infrastructure and service gaps within their jurisdiction. Local Government sector authorities, • Build human/technical capacity of service sector authorities for the on-going operations and maintenance (O&M) of and Community LGAs and LCDAs to Affairs, MDAs capital investments. improve delivering responsible for on mandates • Require O&M costs to be a line item in agency budgets and the state’s budget to ensure dedicated financial regulating urban resources for O&M services (e.g., • Support collaboration with NGOs and local universities for the development of urban management training LAMATA, LAWMA, programs for state and local government officials any newly established • Strengthen capacity of ministries and/or single-purpose entities to better regulate urban services through metropolitan-level performance monitoring and evaluation of service providers. This would entail: i) ensuring the production of reliable regulatory body), data at the local level; ii) establishing performance indicators; and iii) setting up reporting systems to track LGAs and LCDAs performance of service providers and to facilitate the identification of areas to improve performance. • Continue to invest in e-governance technology to improve access to services and to facilitate efficient payment of services. 86 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 1: Strengthen Urban Governance, Planning and Finance Systems Recommendation 1.1: Strengthen urban management and service delivery through governance reform, cross-sectoral digital coordination, and technical and financial capacity building (4/4) Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Improve performance and enhance • Establish KPIs/targets and monitoring and evaluation systems for each service sector LASG, in accountability and transparency partnership with • Provide technical assistance regarding data collection and reporting at the state and local levels. through improved data management Ministry of Local • Increase transparency by providing access to financial and non-financial data and ensure Government and compliance with formal open standards. Community • Publish all available data sets according to open data standards. Affairs, MoF, MEPB and other MDAs Bolster state finance system to support • Improve own source revenue generation to support financing capital investments through Ministry of needed investments for sustainability strengthening tax administration capacity to: i) improve collection of personal income tax from Finance, MEPB, and climate resilience large businesses, high net worth individuals (HNWI) and the informal sector, and ii) update property Lagos Internal records to increase the tax base. Revenue Service • Strengthen PPP institutional and regulatory framework and employ land-based financial and regulatory tools to stimulate private investment in urban development projects. • Strengthen management of public investments and expenditure through technical assistance and capacity support. This includes requiring transparency around expenditures in order to evaluate efficiency of service delivery and to be able to justify recommendations for the provision and/or maintenance of urban infrastructure and services. • Establish performance-based financing for MDAs to improve implementation of sustainable urban projects with climate change considerations. 87 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 1: Strengthen Urban Governance, Planning and Finance Systems Recommendation 1.2: Support sustainable growth of Lagos through community-driven and climate and disaster-risk informed spatial planning and development (1/5) Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Develop a visionary and coherent • Develop a legislative framework for the preparation of a metropolitan plan in MPPUD (Lagos development metropolitan-level spatial plan coordination with local master plans and urban renewal plans. This is the first authority once established), step for the preparation of metropolitan spatial strategy to be adopted at the in partnership with MEPB highest level in the state. • Design and implement a participatory planning process. Local communities should be actively engaged throughout the planning and development process to ensure that investments address the needs of residents. Increase effectiveness of plans • Strengthen the status of spatial plans as legally binding documents to improve LASG in partnership with coordination among key implementation agencies. MPPUD (Lagos development authority once established) • Reassess the existing spatial planning hierarchy for legal and operational overlaps in terms of jurisdiction boundaries, alignment of spatial strategies, etc. (namely the regional, master, model city, action area plans and development guide plans for excised villages). • Develop an improved planning and design process for Ministerial employees to follow in the preparation and review of feasibility of the different spatial planning products planned for the MTSS. • Build capacity of state planners on integration of disaster risk management and climate change measures to enable resilient spatial planning practices. • Engage local communities meaningfully throughout the planning process, from plan development through implementation. 88 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 1: Strengthen Urban Governance, Planning and Finance Systems Recommendation 1.2: Support sustainable growth of Lagos through community-driven and climate and disaster-risk informed spatial planning and development (2/5) Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Support technical capacity building for • Develop a legislative framework to require cooperation between state agencies MPPUD (Lagos development agencies involved in planning activities and LGAs/LCDAs to prepare, implement and monitor progress of local master authority once established), to improve plan implementation, plans in coordination with the metropolitan plan and with lower order plans such Physical Planning Permit coordination, monitoring and as structure and neighborhood plans. Authority (LASPPPA), enforcement Building Control Agency • Build technical capacity of MPPUD and parastatal MDAs that carry out planning- (LASBCA), Urban Renewal related activities to improve planning practices, including zoning, building code Authority (LASURA), Ministry enforcement and reviewing construction practices to ensure that they are of Waterfront Infrastructure resistant to disaster risks. Development • Build capacities of LGAs for the preparation of master plans and lower order plans. • Build technical capacity to facilitate more efficient and expedient building permit process. This includes streamlining and fully digitizing permitting and payment processes. • Identify other mechanisms to expedite the permitting process besides the expensive fast-tracking fee. • Develop a monitoring and evaluation system that includes developing performance goals and indicators to track progress of permitting activities and hold accountability. 89 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 1: Strengthen Urban Governance, Planning and Finance Systems Recommendation 1.2: Support sustainable growth of Lagos through community-driven and climate and disaster-risk informed spatial planning and development (3/5) Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Promote urban regeneration • Develop urban master plans that prioritize urban regeneration and the development of compact and MPPUD (Lagos and compact mixed-use multifunctional districts and that serve to limit future urban expansion. development development to counter authority once • Evaluate the introduction of financial and/or development incentives/tools for developers to foster urban sprawl and reduce urban regeneration and compact development. established) carbon emissions • Identify mechanisms to renovate and repurpose existing buildings in the urban core (i.e., bringing existing vacant buildings into use). • Use an asset management approach to identify government-owned brownfield sites and to prepare and release them for desired urban development. Where urban expansion is • Conduct pre-feasibility/location studies for the proposed new urban districts under the 2052 LSDP. MPPUD (Lagos necessary, ensure that new development • Review the new Epe City Master Plan to ensure the cost-effective integration of resilient land use development is economically, authority once designs and densities with modern approaches to life-cycle operation and maintenance of socially and environmentally established) infrastructure and utilities. sound • Review the Badagry City Master Plan and lower order plans to ensure integration of climate and resilient measures with public and private development strategies and operating practices. • Strengthen the Yaba tech cluster through planning, design and construction strategies and methods that will enhance the national profile of the cluster along with increasing the availability of real estate for new and growing start-ups. • For each new urban district, develop a strategy to coordinate urban planning, urban design and infrastructure/utility network expansion and extension to guide socially and environmentally prudent land use designs and land management practices, while also fostering conditions that are conducive to public and private investment in these urban areas. 90 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 1: Strengthen Urban Governance, Planning and Finance Systems Recommendation 1.2: Support sustainable growth of Lagos through community-driven and climate and disaster-risk informed spatial planning and development (4/5) Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Develop urban Identify measures to improve resilience in the landscaping of surfaces and open areas. Such measures should MPPUD landscape design include decreasing the urban heat island effect, bioremediation landscape solutions, the use of permeable guidelines for resilient materials to absorb and filtrate water runoff, shade & cooling, vegetation to cleanse polluted air, etc. public spaces Develop a greening • Pilot the design and construction of new eco-parks that incorporate urban agriculture as a key design aspect. MPPUD (Lagos program to increase development • Identify government-owned spaces to develop gardens. Provide developer incentives to build gardens on provision of green authority once privately-owned spaces. infrastructure and established), in mitigate urban heat • Develop new Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for the management and maintenance of open spaces, partnership with island effect parks and gardens. Ministry of • Prepare a guideline document for urban planting which outlines planting schemes for open spaces, shading Environment and and cooling in parks and gardens, planting along major motorways, neighborhood streets and sidewalks, etc. Water Resources (MEWR) and • Construct standardized interpretation signs at key parks outlining general usage policies for the public. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) Implement • Implement tools including Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) and Strategic Environmental MPPUD in Environmental and Social Assessment (SESA) among others. partnership with Management Tools Ministry of • Identify potential environmental impacts on spatial planning including urbanization impacts on wetlands and Environment and biodiversity. Water Resources 91 (MEWR) RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 1: Strengthen Urban Governance, Planning and Finance Systems Recommendation 1.2: Support sustainable growth of Lagos through community-driven and climate and disaster-risk informed spatial planning and development (5/5) Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Restore critical wetland sites to • Identify critical wetland sites in need of restoration and protection based on their biodiversity MEWR, in promote biodiversity value, ecological potential, floodplain type, current land use, and nutrient reduction potential. partnership with MPPUD, Ministry • Prepare engineering studies for preserving the wetland sites including baseline surveys, and of Waterfront detailed engineering designs for the sites. Infrastructure • Conduct a public environmental awareness campaign to promote biodiversity conservation. Development • Build capacity of personnel at State institutions in wetland management through an international study tour that enables the learning and exchange of expertise. Develop building material and solar Propose climate friendly energy generating options to reduce GHG emissions from building MPPPUD guidelines for new construction activity in commercial and residential areas. Develop a pilot urban eco-district • Select 3 eligible districts to pilot the program a conduct a mapping exercise of public MPPUD in program buildings and monthly electric consumption rate in each district. partnership with MEMR • Develop a clean energy strategy that calculates the existing district footprint and identifies measures to reduce carbon emissions through clean energy power sources, specifically in public buildings (such as schools and primary health centres). • Set targets for the conversion of energy source to solar panels in public schools and primary health centres. • Monitor reduction in carbon emissions and reliance on non-clean energy resources in each of the districts. 92 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 2: Invest in climate–smart infrastructure and services Recommendation 2.1: Improve urban mobility through development of an enhanced transportation network that is integrated, multi-modal and supports carbon emissions reduction STRATEGY PRIORITY ACTIONS LEADING INSTITUTION(S) Develop a multi-modal urban • Based on the various existing plans for transport in Lagos, develop a comprehensive multi- Ministry of mobility system modal urban mobility plan that considers the waterway, train, and road networks, public Transportation in transport and non-motorized modes of transport into an integrated system partnership with Ministry of Waterfront • Establish new multimodal transport gateway hubs through: i) conducting pre- Infrastructure feasibility/locational studies to select new hubs; ii) designing hubs to converge BRT lines with Development, LAMAT interstate buses, and with park-and-ride services for private passengers; and iii) developing a A, Lagos State financial model for the construction and operation of identified new hubs through PPPs. Waterways Authority and MPPUD Continue efforts to improve mass • Continue to investment in mass transit (e.g., train, BRT) and smaller-capacity public transport LAMATA in transit solutions while investing in systems (e.g., buses, waterways) partnership with smaller capacity modes of urban MPPUD • Support non-motorized transport infrastructure investments (e.g., sidewalks, crosswalks and mobility bike lanes), especially in high traffic areas, to promote safe pedestrian and cycling activity • Adopt integrated planning for delivery of safe streets, urban spaces, and utility infrastructure lines along LAMATA’s designated corridors • Pursue a plan to professionalize semi-formal public transport operators. These efforts should build on the experience with Quality Bus System and BRT in Lagos. Decarbonize public transport fleet Set aggressive but achievable targets for the conversion of the public bus fleet to electric LAMATA in vehicles. partnership with MEMR 93 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 2: Invest in climate–smart infrastructure and services Recommendation 2.2: Develop an integrated solid waste management system - waste minimization, collection, separation and treatment - through comprehensive planning, investment and capacity building (1/2) Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Develop an integrated solid • Update previous projections of waste transfer and landfill operating capacity and lifecycle to account Ministry of waste management plan and for alternative scenarios of urban development across the State and assumptions about the adoption Environment and platform. This shall be a state- of waste reduction, diversion and recycling efforts that may be undertaken; for example, to Water Resources; wide 50-year plan that potentially integrate Extended Producer Responsibility schemes into waste management. LAWMA integrates waste minimization, • Establish operational requirements of the 50-year planning horizon. collection, separation and treatment. • Identify immediate and long-term waste management priorities. • Develop a knowledge platform to provide authorities with operational information on collection routes, GPS tracking and verification of solid waste collection, calculation of collected waste volume, reporting on infrastructure issues that impact operational efficiency, etc. • Develop guidelines on the disposal of special wastes (construction/ demolition, industrial, clinical, etc.) • Develop initiatives for plastic waste management following the World Bank’s synthesis report. Develop new solid waste • Select sites for new landfills and conduct pre-construction studies: environmental studies (e.g., Ministry of management infrastructure groundwater protection, infrastructure requirements, operating practices), financial studies (e.g., Environment and and rehabilitate infrastructure capital and annual operating budgets, revenue projections, outsourcing or PPP feasibility), and Water Resources; impact studies (e.g., construction and operating impact management and noise/odour mitigation). LAWMA • Prepare preliminary and detailed design, civil engineering studies, and operating manuals for a new landfill gas (LFG) recovery system which shall extract LFG and generate energy. • Conduct environmental, financial and impact studies in support of the construction of transfer stations which aim at increasing the amount of solid waste transferred through stations thereby reducing curbside collection and transfer costs. 94 • Conduct feasibility studies for the rehabilitation of existing dumpsites to improve environmental RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 2: Invest in climate–smart infrastructure and services Recommendation 2.2: Develop an integrated solid waste management system - waste minimization, collection, separation and treatment - through comprehensive planning, investment and capacity building (2/2) Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Improve waste collection and • Institute source separated collection that will incentivize waste generators, waste pickers, and aggregators LAWMA separation to separate at source, which will improve material recovery and the quality of the segregated materials. Develop replicable pilot municipal • Select 3 communities to pilot projects for at-source (curbside) collection/sorting of recyclable Ministry of residential and public schools waste, composting for organic waste and waste-to-energy solutions as appropriate. Environment and recycling and composting programs. Water • Provide trash sorting bins The objective of this component is to Resources; reduce residential solid waste heading • Decide on delivery method for the program (traditional public sector operations, public- LAWMA to landfill, create employment private partnership or outsourcing, or community-led, including engaging ‘producer opportunities within higher level of companies’) and duration of the pilot program community engagement through • Engage an independent body to monitor the program to ensure accurate measurement and residential waste recovery and reduce comprehensive reporting. carbon emissions from waste. • Ensure continuity and replicability of the program for step-by-step expansion of the SWM system beyond pilot areas, through reporting on lessons learned and flexible design. Build capacity to improve institutional • Strengthen technical capabilities of institutions involved in the planning, regulating and Ministry of effectiveness in waste management monitoring of performance of waste services. Environment and and raise public awareness Water • Develop public awareness campaigns to change behaviors regarding littering, waste burning, Resources; and the importance of segregating residential waste at source and partaking in recycling LAWMA schemes. Establish and enforce penalties on • Enforce ban on open burning of waste and biomass. Ministry of open burning of waste and littering Environment and • Establish penalties for littering Water Resources 95 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 2: Invest in climate–smart infrastructure and services Recommendation 2.3: Increase access to water supply and sanitation services and develop an integrated urban water management system that coordinates water supply, sewerage, stormwater drainage, wastewater treatment, solid waste management and land use planning (1/2) Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Develop a comprehensive and realizable • Upgrade the current water supply and sanitation system using an integrated Ministry of the Environment integrated urban water management urban water management approach that coordinates water supply, sewerage, and Water Resources system with state-wide coverage stormwater drainage, wastewater treatment, solid waste management and land and Lagos State Wastewater use planning Management Office • Produce a strategy for infrastructure network upgrades and related measures including recommending civil works for: 1) the construction of new water supply infrastructure for unserved/underserved areas; 2) rehabilitation of existing water supply infrastructure to supply water more efficiently; 3) construction of sewage treatment plants, 4) rehabilitation of existing wastewater collection and treatment facilities, and 5) rehabilitation of existing channels and construction of new wastewater channels to convey wastewater from households/residential areas (in a network) to treatment plants. • Coordinate plans between water supply and sewage management bodies. • Consult and decide in a transparent manner the most appropriate management model for the provision of metro-wide services (e.g., direct management, delegation of services, partnership with civil society, etc.). This could include restructuring and reorganizing the Lagos Water Corporation to achieve more coordination, accountability and self-sufficiency. • Develop a public communications program that accompanies system upgrades to ensure that users are guided on the ways in which they can responsibly use and sustain the expanded and extended wastewater systems. 96 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 2: Invest in climate–smart infrastructure and services Recommendation 2.3: Increase access to water supply and sanitation services and develop an integrated urban water management system that coordinates water supply, sewerage, stormwater drainage, wastewater treatment, solid waste management and land use planning (2/2) Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Invest in new WSS infrastructure to • Select sites for new WSS infrastructure development and conduct pre- Ministry of the Environment extend access to unserved/underserved construction studies: environmental studies financial studies (e.g., capital and and Water Resources areas and rehabilitate existing annual operating budgets, revenue projections, outsourcing or PPP feasibility), and Lagos State Wastewater infrastructure for more efficient service and impact studies (e.g., construction and operating impact Management Office delivery management/mitigation measures). • Prepare preliminary and detailed design and civil engineering studies. • Conduct feasibility studies for the rehabilitation of existing landfills to improve environmental stewardship of the sites through expanded and integrated LFG operation. Build financial and technical capacity for • Include maintenance and operations of WSS infrastructure in the state and local Ministry of the Environment improved operations and maintenance government budgets. and Water Resources of WSS infrastructure and Lagos State Wastewater • Build human and technical capacity for the on-going operations and Management Office maintenance of WSS infrastructure. Develop tools and assessments for • Develop a storm water drainage master plan at the state and local levels. Ministry of the Environment improved flood risk and coastal erosion and Water Resources • Develop a metro-wide flood risk map & measures for addressing coastal management erosion. • Develop a sea level rise vulnerability assessment. 97 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 2: Invest in climate–smart infrastructure and services Recommendation 2.4: Increase access to reliable energy through implementing policy reform and supporting clean energy sources, such as solar (1/3) Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Implement a • Implement the recently launched Integrated Resource Plan (Dec 2021) with the collaboration of electric distribution Ministry of comprehensive companies (DisCos) or through standalone initiatives. The plan should include a strategy for prioritizing and Energy and energy reform sequencing infrastructure network upgrades and related measures including recommended civil works to increase Mineral policy, in electric grid supply and support renewal energy. Resources coordination • Consult and decide in a transparent manner the most appropriate management model for the provision of metro-wide with federal services (e.g., direct management, delegation of services, partnership with civil society, etc.). regulators Improve • Facilitate the development of solar-focused (DPV) financing programs to increase the availability of low-cost financing Ministry of financing for for developers in the DPV market. Energy and renewal energy Mineral • Create a Green Fund (e.g., from levies on carbon intensive activities, direct budget allocation, etc.) to provide low-cost sources financing for DPV-enabling activities . Resources • Create a one stop shop to support DPV developers in navigating issues around accessing current funds and provide training to them to meet the requirements of existing programs. • Create a data platform to provide information such as solar rooftop potential and demand profile of buildings. • Work with existing DPV-focused financing programmes to refine funding application review and disbursement processes, thus reducing difficulty in accessing current funds. • Structure and channel donor-led naira denominated consumer debt financing through commercial banks to provide low-cost financing and improve involvement of local financial institutions. 98 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 2: Invest in climate–smart infrastructure and services Recommendation 2.4: Increase access to reliable energy through implementing policy reform and supporting clean energy sources, such as solar (2/3) Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Increase • Set a target for solar DER in government buildings to help send a signal to the market Ministry of commercial use Energy and • Initiate deployment of solar DPV in anchor loads, introduce fiscal incentives to attract solar DPV investments. of renewable Mineral energy • Partner with marketing companies, distribution companies, community leaders to raise consumer awareness on Resources benefits of solar products. • Create a mechanism to aggregate demand from various customer segments to create scale, hence reducing acquisition cost of solar products. Support the • Work with the federal government to support simplifying importation process for DPV developers (e.g., create a Ministry of operations for help desk to provide clarity on custom duty exemptions, fast track importation process) to reduce importation costs. Energy and renewal energy Mineral • Develop training curriculum & provide standardized training programs focused on key skills required across the Resources value chain to increase availability of skilled human resources and increase participation in underdeveloped segments (i.e., manufacturing, end of life) of the DPV value chain. • Create a publicly available repository of reliable market data to increase the availability of data resources in the market. • Create partnerships with existing agent networks (e.g., financial services agents' network) to improve efficiency during payment collections. • Create partnerships to develop payment platforms to minimize overheads for collection and increase efficiency during payment collections. 99 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 2: Invest in climate–smart infrastructure and services Recommendation 2.4: Increase access to reliable energy through implementing policy reform and supporting clean energy sources, such as solar (3/3) Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Create an enabling • Enforce International Electrotechnical Commission/Lighting Global quality standards and stricter monitoring Ministry of environment for of quality of solar products & introduce e-waste regulation on solar products to reduce the presence of low- Energy and renewable energy quality products in the market. Mineral delivery Resources • Launch state-wide awareness campaigns targeted at informing customers on how to identify quality solar systems. • Work with the federal government to support introducing regulations to drive DPV demand (net metering, energy efficiency, appliance labelling, open access etc.) to contribute to solar DPV policy framework. Develop a pilot urban • Select 3 eligible districts to pilot the program a conduct a mapping exercise of public buildings and monthly MPPUD in eco-district program electric consumption rate in each district. partnership with Ministry of • Develop a renewable energy strategy that calculates the existing district footprint and identifies measures to Energy and reduce carbon emissions through renewable energy power sources, specifically in public buildings (such as Mineral schools and primary health centres). Resources • Set targets for the conversion of energy source to solar panels in public schools and primary health centres. • Monitor reduction in carbon emissions and reliance on non-renewable energy resources in each of the districts. 100 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 3: Activate land and housing markets Recommendation 3.1: Improve land administration through complete digitization of regularization process and capacity building to increase tenure security, foster better planning and urban development, enable private investment and support increased property tax revenue generation Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Develop a comprehensive • Build technical capacity to complete cadaster through surveying, GIS mapping and identification of Lands Bureau, land information system occupants. Office of the State Surveyor General, • Coordinate activities of the multiple agencies that deal with land activities. MPPUD, • Develop a publicly accessible land information management system that integrates land records and spatial government mapping of statutory and customary land plots. agencies that own land assets Strengthen capacity to • Build technical capacity to expedite registration and regularization processes. This includes streamlining and Lands Bureau, increase efficiency of land fully digitizing land titling and registration and payment processes. Office of the State titling and registration • Develop new tools to expedite the process to formalize and secure land tenure such as through a Surveyor General processes government-sponsored certificate issuance program rather than waiting for residents to initiate the process. • Develop a monitoring and evaluation system that includes developing performance goals and indicators to track progress of land registration activities and hold accountability. Enforce vacant land Build technical capacity to improve enforcement of vacant land taxation program MPPUD and taxation program to Lagos Internal prevent land banking and Revenue Services stimulate housing (LIRS) development Identify mechanisms to • Identify and address administrative bottlenecks for property tax collection. LASG in improve property tax partnership with • Strengthen technical capacity of tax collection staff to ensure accountability. collection Ministry of Finance 101 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 3: Activate land and housing markets Recommendation 3.2: Increase access to formal, affordable and climate- and disaster-proofed housing through comprehensive planning, increased private sector participation, innovative design, housing finance and slum upgrading programs (1/2) Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Develop a state-level • Identify both supply-side and demand-side constraints based on sound data (quantitative and qualitative). Ministry of comprehensive housing Housing • Evaluate existing housing finance programs for their effectiveness and adjust programs if necessary to policy/strategy to improve performance. This would require the establishment of performance indicators and dedicated staff improve access to quality for independent monitoring and evaluation. affordable housing and limit the proliferation of • Identify program gaps and implementable strategies to address the gaps. informal settlements • Coordinate and ensure alignment with the proposed Urban Upgrading and Renewal Policy that includes guidelines for slum upgrading and resettlement. Incentivize private sector • Streamline and fully automate land registration process. Lands Bureau, participation for the LASPPPA, • Streamline and fully automate approval process for building and construction permits. development of Ministry of affordable housing • Explore use of land-based financing tools and developer incentives to build affordable housing (e.g., density Housing, bonuses, conveying land at no cost, payment-in-lieu-of-taxes, mixed-income development to allow for cross- LASURA, MPPUD subsidization). • For urban renewal projects, consider cross-subsidy schemes that include the costs of land tenure regularization and guarantee issuance of Certificates of Occupancy for informal settlers. • Institute affordable housing mechanisms into planning and zoning regulations (e.g., inclusionary zoning) Support innovative • Build technical capacity of planning and housing development staff on low-cost building strategies. This Ministry of building strategies to could be through knowledge-exchange events and training. Housing, MPPUD reduce costs of • Develop local manufacturing capacities to provide input material for construction locally. construction thereby increasing housing • Develop public awareness campaign to educate on low-cost homebuilding strategies. 102 affordability RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 3: Activate land and housing markets Recommendation 3.2: Increase access to formal, affordable and climate- and disaster-proofed housing through comprehensive planning, increased private sector participation, innovative design, housing finance and slum upgrading programs (2/2) Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Expand slum upgrading • Undertake detailed assessments of housing and living conditions, legality-associated issues (e.g., land Ministry of program to include onsite tenure, compliance with building regulations), resident socioeconomic profiles, and community needs Housing in housing improvements beyond housing in target neighborhoods, ensuring genuine community participation. Affordability partnership with assessments of public services should be included. LASURA , LASBCA and • Identify the upgrading program scope for each LGA. The scope may range from a minimalistic MPPUD approach (that extends access to technical infrastructure only while the status of housing units remains illegal) to a comprehensive approach that includes measures to address underlying causes of illegality. Measures could include tenure provision and microloans to improve livelihood or to upgrade housing units in the program target areas. • Establish local stakeholder platforms to promote public dialogue and broad participation in the design and implementation of the upgrading programs. For this, it will be critical to ensure participation of residents of the community and community-serving organizations at the earliest stages of program development and throughout program implementation and the monitoring and evaluation process. • Update master and detailed spatial plans to include informal slum neighborhoods. • Identify housing units exposed to unmitigable natural disaster risks and future eviction risks (e.g., blocking the right-of-way for a future infrastructure/service extension or consolidation, or land to be protected for biodiversity). • Design alternative solutions for those who live in at-risk units that may include, inter alia, disaster risk mitigation measures on-site or relocation support to safe and affordable housing options elsewhere. 103 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 4: Foster economic development and inclusive growth Recommendation 4.1: Prioritize infrastructure investments that create jobs and promote economic development Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Support infrastructure Identify existing market areas, development corridors and targeted growth areas and conduct needs MEPB investments (power, water assessments to identify and prioritize investments needed to enhance market access and connectivity supply and sanitation, SWM, transport and ICT) Recommendation 4.2: Enhance process of doing business Support further building Build technical capacity to facilitate more efficient and expedited building permit process. This includes Physical Planning permit process reform streamlining and fully digitizing permitting and payment processes. Permit Authority (LASPPPA) Improve access to land Strengthen institutional capacity to increase efficiency of land titling and registration processes Lands Bureau, Office through land of the State Surveyor administration reform General 104 RECOMMENDATIONS Intervention Area 4: Support inclusive economic development Recommendation 4.3: Support inclusive economic development Initiative Priority Actions Leading Institution(s) Provide support for job Invest more in technical and vocational learning and encourage stronger partnerships between the Ministry of skills training and private sector and technical colleges to ensure the relevant skills are developed. Wealth Creation education and Employment; Ministry of Youth and Sports; Ministry of Education Remove restrictions to Work with federal government to strengthen market-based competition policy and anti-monopoly Ministry of Commerce, competition policy Industry & Cooperatives; MEPB Improve access to finance • Work with federal government to strengthen regulatory framework for microfinance banks and the Ministry of Finance; development of MSME lending products Ministry of Commerce, Industry • Work with federal government to extend the coverage of the credit bureau to include a larger & Cooperatives; Ministry segment of the bankable population. This can be done by developing and implementing strategies to integrate nontraditional credit providers into the credit reporting system, including by leveraging of Wealth Creation and Employment financial technology to use alternative data to create credit profiles that will make many economic actors “visible” and that will facilitate access to finance and on better terms. • Promote financial literacy and the digitization of records of microenterprises to increase access to finance. Digitizing the records of microenterprises and providing easy-to-understand financial management education would ensure the transparent selection of serious and disciplined entrepreneurs who could be supported with financing. This effort would promote formalization and facilitate enterprise growth. Provide support for Reducing the cost and procedures for registering a business. This could incentivize firms to formalize. Ministry business formalization of Commerce, Industry & Cooperatives 105 Studies Prepared under the Lagos Development Platform ASA No Output title 1 Lagos State City Scan: City Resilience Project 2 Revenue Management in Lagos- A Deep Dive 3 Bankable Project – Review of Apapa Master Plan 4 Efficiency of Informal Transit Networks: Evidence from Lagos Lagos Bus Reform Initiative Impact Evaluation: Objective, Baseline, Findings, and Next Steps (Impact Evaluation) 5 Studying the Viability and Providing Recommendations to Support Distributed Solar PV in Urban Environments in Nigeria: Lagos DPV Final Report 6 Disaster Risk Management Analytics 7 Reducing Marine Plastic Pollution and Creating Plastic Recycling Markets in Lagos State 8 Housing Affordability Study in Nigeria 9 Land Administration and Management in Nigeria 10 Bankable Project – Review of Epe and Lekki Master Plans 11 Lagos Diagnostic Study and Pathways for Transformation​: A Rapid Multi-Sector Analytical Review of the Megacity 12 Multi-Sector Engagement Framework 13 Lagos Multi-Sector Analytical Review and Engagement Framework Presentation title 106 References (1/3) Akpokodje, J., Weaver, C., Fagbeja, M., Forastiere, F., Spadaro, J., Johnson, T., Ugochukwu, O., Osunderu, O., and Guttikunda, S. 2022. 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Presentation title 109 List of Projects for Acknowledgement and Disclaimer 110 Lagos Diagnostic Study and Pathway for Transformation Photo on front page: Image credit to Reginald Bassey licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license. Image is partially cropped and available here. This report was developed with financial support from SURGE. Acknowledgment Statement: This report has been prepared by the World Bank in consultation with relevant agencies of the Lagos State Government. The World Bank has been requested by the Government of Lagos for technical and analytical assistance, with a vision of transforming Lagos into a more livable and prosperous megacity. This report is part of The World Bank’s financed technical assistance “Lagos Platform for Development” which focuses on analytical work in the areas of strategic urban planning to foster an economically diverse and viable metropolitan area with emphasis to improve the operations and governance of urban services. This activity was supported by SURGE, a World Bank managed Umbrella Program financed by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), aimed at enabling cities and regions in developing countries to function as drivers of sustainable and inclusive economic development. 111 Disclaimer: The findings, analysis and conclusions expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of any individual partner organization of The World Bank, its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. Although the World Bank, SURGE, and SECO make reasonable efforts to ensure all the information presented in this document is correct, its accuracy and integrity cannot be guaranteed. Use of any data or information from this document is at the user’s own risk and under no circumstances shall the World Bank, GFDRR or any of its partners be liable for any loss, damage, liability or expense incurred or suffered which is claimed to result from reliance on the data contained in this document. The boundaries, colors, denomination, and other information shown in any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The report reflects information available up to June 30, 2023. 112 113