The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363) Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Central Asia | Environment, Natural Resources & the Blue Economy Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2016 | Seq No: 16 | ARCHIVED on 28-May-2024 | ISR60637 | Implementing Agencies: Committee for Environmental Protection, Executive Committee for International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Tajikistan, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Uzbekistan Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 03-Nov-2015 Effectiveness Date: 04-Aug-2016 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 14-Jan-2019 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 01-Apr-2019 Original Closing Date: 30-Apr-2021 Revised Closing Date: 31-May-2024 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) To enhance regionally coordinated access to improved climate change knowledge services for key stakeholders (e.g., policy makers, communities, and civil society) in participating Central Asian countries, as well as to increased investments and capacity building that, combined, will address climate challenges common to these countries. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Regional Climate Knowledge Services:(Cost $12.49 M) Regional Climate Investment Facility:(Cost $21.35 M) Regional and National Coordination:(Cost $3.86 M) Unallocated Amount:(Cost $0.30 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Moderate Low Implementation Status and Key Decisions This is the final ISR, following the last Implementation Support Mission (ISM) conducted in May 2024, during which time project implementation progress was assessed in each country, including actions needed for successful completion of all activities before the Closing Date on May 31, 2024. 6/19/2024 Page 1 of 10 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363) As of May 2024, the progress towards achieving the Project Development Objective (PDO) and the overall AF Implementation Progress (IP) are both assessed as Satisfactory (S) given successful completion of the parent project, achievements of the results indicators, as well as substantial implementation progress by both NCUs and RCU to complete all remaining activities in a timely manner. All PDO level indicators as well as Intermediate Level Indicators have been fully achieved. Both NCUs in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have either fully or almost completed the implementation of sub-projects across all project sites under Component 2 (Tajikistan: 119 sub-projects; Uzbekistan: 325 sub-projects) and on track to ensure successful implementation of all remaining project activities as per the work plan, while ensuring sustainability of project activities. The final results and achievements of the CAMP4ASB parent project and its AF as well as lessons learned will be presented by both NCUs and RCU during the Central Asia Climate Change Conference in Almaty between May 27-29, 2024. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance High Substantial Low Macroeconomic Moderate Moderate Low Sector Strategies and Policies Substantial Moderate Low Technical Design of Project or Program Substantial Moderate Low Institutional Capacity for Implementation and High Moderate Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary High Moderate Low Environment and Social Moderate Moderate Moderate Stakeholders High Moderate Low Other -- -- -- Overall High Moderate Low Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes To enhance regionally coordinated access to improved climate change knowledge services for key stake IN01425262 ►Additional resources mobilized for knowledge, capacity, and investment for regional climate/green action through increased Program coordination among Central Asian countries and development community (Amount(USD), Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 40,180,000.00 41,630,000.00 40,000,000.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 20-May-2024 31-May-2024 Achieved as of July 2022 and updated in May 2024. The amount reflected here includes following projects Comments: and sources: 6/19/2024 Page 2 of 10 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363) Funding Funding Project/ initiative Status ($ Main purpose source Million) Project to support the World Bank's Green Investments in regional CAMP4ASB, in Tajikistan and Active 19 Climate cooperation on climate Uzbekistan Fund change Conduct regional research Smart Waters Completed 0.2 USAID competition (2019) US Hold Central Asian Women Central Asian Women in Tech and Completed 0.09 Embassy in in Tech and Science Week Science Week UZ in 2019 UNEP, EU, OSCE, WB, Central Asian Leadership Support to the 10th annual Completed 0.09 SIWI, Programme CALP in 2019 USAID, MFA FIN, Increase resilience to Developing a Disaster Risk disaster risks in the CA Transfer Facility in the CAREC Active 1.8 ADB region through improved Region collaboration in disaster risk financing. Strengthening the Strengthening the resilience of CA adaptation capacity of CA countries by enabling regional GEF - Active 19 countries to climate change cooperation to assess high altitude UNDP impacts on glacio-nival glacio-nival systems systems. Lately, the project has also leveraged additional resources by enhancing its program and project mobilization capacities, resulting in additional funds of $1,450,000. This includes contributions of $870k from GIZ, $460k from The Coca-Cola Foundation (TCCF), $120k from Global Water Challenge (GWC). Total: 41,630,000 IN01425263 ►Cooperative action resulting in the financing of investments that require collaboration across countries (e.g., transboundary investment or multi-country coordination of national policies) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 20-May-2024 31-May-2024 Comments: Achieved as of July 2022. Cooperative action resulting in the financing of investments that require collaboration across countries include the following: Type of Cooperating Brief description of the joint activities that Activities investments Countries led to investments 6/19/2024 Page 3 of 10 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363) The CAMP4ASB project supported the Conduct assessments on the investment in its preparatory state by Ruslovoe water reservoir of the conducting hydrological modelling of the Energy Tuyamuyun hydroelectric reservoir in order to aid decision-making to TKM and UZ infrastructure complex in order to prepare an select viable technical solutions to go into investment proposal and attract the proposal the investment project which investors. takes into account the risks of sedimentation. The receiving station of MODIS UzHydromet has requested the data used by the MODSNOW CAMP4ASB project to allocate Phase 2 software to assess runoff of KG, KZ. TJ, hard-component support to the upgrade, Forecasting ICT mountain rivers in the Aral Sea TKM and UZ which has been approved as it constitutes basin and improve forecasting in an investment in ICT equipment which will the region has been installed in provide data and benefit the whole region. 2012 and is in need of upgrade. Purchase of a supercomputer installed and put into operation in An Agreement on cooperation between the Uzhydromet to use numerical Forecasting ICT KG, KZ and UZ NMHS of CA, including on the use of the methods of weather forecasts, COSMO model. including using the predictive model COSMO. IN01425264 ►Number of country-led plans and programs that draw on Program’s climate knowledge services, including lessons from climate investments (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 2.00 5.00 3.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 31-Aug-2023 20-May-2024 31-May-2024 Comments: Following two country-led plans and programs draw on Project's climate knowledge services: 1) Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated 11.29.2018. No. 970 “On measures to strengthen the material and technical base of the Center for Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan” for the period 2019-2022. The Project has contributed to UzHydromet to improve its services and automation of the observational meteorological network through timely warnings of disasters and hazardous weather events, predict reliably discharges for water resources management, provide support to other sectors and generally, and manage the weather, water and climate related risk effectively. 2) In Tajikistan, National Action Plan on Adaptation to Climate Change and a National Adaptation Strategy 2012-2030. Tajik Hydromet, as a National Focal Point for the UNFCCC, contributes to addressing climate change issues and coordinates climate change activities in the country. The Agency operates the Center for the Study of Climate Change and the Ozone Layer. The Center processes information and reports on all aspects related to climate research, mitigation of its changes and adaptation to them, which led to the development of a National Action Plan on Adaptation to Climate Change and a National Adaptation Strategy 2012-2030. The Agency has benefited from the project with better data, information and equipment. Lately (during the GCF stage), the project also supported the following:  A government program on the National export strategy of Tajikistan (Законодательство Республики Таджикистан (adlia.tj))  A government instruction to enhance the export potential of honey production in Tajikistan (https://www.vsemirnyjbank.org/ru/news/press-release/2023/10/24/tajikistan-to- improve-the-quality-and-efficiency-of-its-healthcare-services-with-world-bank-support) 6/19/2024 Page 4 of 10 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363)  Uzbekistan subsidy rules for partial reimbursement of investment costs incurred by agro- industrial complex. Farmers in Uzbekistan to Receive Improved Subsidy Allocation — Uzbekistan News | DARYO.UZ Additionally, the NCUs estimated that the regional coordination networks started about ten policies (4 in Uzbekistan and 6 in Tajikistan). These policies cover various topics, such as encouraging agriculture diversification to more valuable, water-saving crops, decreasing state interference, and enhancing the quality and effectiveness of extension and irrigation services. Even though there is more work to do in updating agriculture policies in Central Asian countries, the current framework and efforts highlight the critical need to adjust agriculture and water management to a changing climate. IN01425265 ►Proportion of users reporting satisfaction with Climate Knowledge Services provided by Program (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 94.00 94.00 60.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 20-May-2024 31-May-2024 Fully achieved. For this indicator, the end value was included as the satisfaction rate related to Climate Knowledge Services provided by Program. The assessment/ feedback collected from participants of various events/trainings, provided through the Progress Reports stands at around 94% or higher. In parallel, the CAREC regional team has evaluated 116 micro-projects implemented since 2017 and documented the lessons learned from them. These micro-projects cover various climate-smart Comments: technologies and practices, such as drip irrigation, mulching, composting, and agroforestry, that aim to reduce the exposure and vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change impacts. During the survey, 87,5% of the beneficiaries expressed their full satisfaction with the microloan terms and conditions. This assessment was considered for the IRI indicator related to the beneficiary satisfaction rate. Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Regional Climate Investment Facility IN01425267 ►Direct project beneficiaries (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 80,839.00 70,742.00 50,000.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 20-May-2024 29-Apr-2022 This indicator is fully achieved and includes: IDA: the project made 3816 sub-loans covering 38,363 beneficiaries including 21,483 women (56%) in Tajikistan; and 42 sub-loans covering 648 beneficiaries including 285 women (44%) in Uzbekistan. Total: 39,011 beneficiaries GCF: the AF completed 325 sub-projects in Uzbekistan, covering 9 657 direct beneficiaries; and 119 sub- projects in Tajikistan, covering 22 074 direct beneficiaries under the GCF phase. Total: 31,731 direct beneficiaries. Comments: The direct beneficiaries for this project would be considered: 1. people receiving regional and nation training; 2. beneficiaries of credit lines (and their families); 3. People benefitting from jobs created by the project. Based on this definition, actual and planned beneficiaries of training and subprojects (assuming that each subproject benefits a family of 10 people and people employed by the subproject). Women participation: IDA: 21,483 women benefitted in Tajikistan & 285 women benefitted in Uzbekistan. Total: 21,768 or 55.8% 6/19/2024 Page 5 of 10 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363) GCF: 4 681 women benefitted directly in Uzbekistan & 8,867 women benefitted directly in Tajikistan. Total: 13,548 women / 43% Overall total: 35,316 / 70,742 = 49.9% Note: 88,631 beneficiaries were reported in the APR by CAREC at the end of CY2023 to GCF, which include also beneficiaries covered by RCU. NCUs/RCU ICR will collect final data to confirm the final number. Additionally, the project supported creation of additional jobs in Tajikistan (1,676) and Uzbekistan (2,462); 9,575 beneficiaries in Tajikistan and 3,252 beneficiaries in Uzbekistan were successfully trained in the area of climate change. Overall, during the GCF AF, the project indirect beneficiaries reached 62,024 people in Tajikistan and 102,842 people in Uzbekistan. Note: 120,213 indirect beneficiaries were reported in the APR by CAREC at the end of CY2023 to GCF, which include also beneficiaries covered by RCU. NCUs/RCU ICR will collect final data to confirm the final number. IN01425270 Female beneficiaries (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 55.00 49.90 35.00 IN01425271 ►Number of hectares in project area covered by effective agricultural, land, and water management practices suited to local agro-ecological conditions, which can address climate change (Hectare(Ha), Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 18,450.00 77,857.00 10,000.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 20-May-2024 29-Apr-2022 Overall, the project covered 33 465 ha in Uzbekistan and 44 392 ha in Tajikistan. The nature of the sub-projects financed by the project has changed from what was foreseen during preparation. The project has financed a lot of subprojects that resulted in adoption of new technologies for climate smart agriculture, which is transformed into number of ha covered by sustainable land and water Comments: management technologies. Out of which, the project has covered 35,000 ha (15619 in Tajikistan and 19381 in Uzbekistan), applying effective agricultural, land, and water management measures to combat climate change (estimated as the land in or around the forest and protected areas). IN01425273 ►Farmers adopting climate-smart agricultural technologies (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 5,946.00 4,302.00 3,000.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 20-May-2024 29-Apr-2022 The indicator is calculated as follows, following the reports from the NCUs and RCU on sub-loans and grants: IDA: 3816 sub-loans in Tajikistan and 42 sub-loans in Uzbekistan = 3,858 GCF: 444 sub-projects, covering 119 sub-projects in Tajikistan and 325 sub-projects in Uzbekistan. Comments: Total: 4,302 sub-projects As regards to direct beneficiaries: IDA: 5,946 were covered under IDA, and 31,731 [9 657 (UZ) & 22 074 (TJ)] were covered under the GCF phase. Estimated as HH (4ppl per HH): 9,419 HH IN01425274 ►Beneficiaries reached with financial services. (Number, Custom) 6/19/2024 Page 6 of 10 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 39,011.00 37,677.00 3,000.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 20-May-2024 29-Apr-2022 The indicator is calculated as follows, following the reports from the NCUs and RCU: IDA: 5,946 were covered under IDA, and 31,731 [9 657 (UZ) & 22 074 (TJ)] were covered under the GCF phase. Estimated as HH (4ppl per HH): 9,419 HH As regards to sub-loans and grants: Comments: IDA: 3816 sub-loans in Tajikistan and 42 sub-loans in Uzbekistan = 3,858 GCF: 444 sub-projects, covering 119 sub-projects in Tajikistan and 325 sub-projects in Uzbekistan. Total: 4,302 sub-projects IN01425275 Female beneficiaries reached with financial services (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 50.00 44.00 35.00 IN01425276 ►Beneficiaries that feel project investments reflected their needs (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 100.00 87.50 80.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 20-May-2024 29-Apr-2022 The CAREC regional team has evaluated 116 micro-projects implemented since 2017 and documented the lessons learned from them. These micro-projects cover various climate-smart technologies and practices, such as drip irrigation, mulching, composting, and agroforestry, that aim to reduce the exposure and vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change impacts. During the survey, 87,5% of the Comments: beneficiaries have expressed their full satisfaction with the micro loan terms and conditions. The final surveys are currently under implementation and results will be reported back by the RCU in the ICR. Regional and National Coordination IN01425268 ►Feedback/Grievances responded and/or resolved within the stipulated service standards for response times (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 20-May-2024 31-May-2024 No grievances were reported; however, there were instances of miscommunication between current and potential beneficiaries and NCUs in both countries regarding conditions, terms, and coordination, which were raised by some beneficiaries. These concerns were successfully clarified or addressed by the National Coordination Units (NCUs), as reported. Both NCUs in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan and the RCU Comments: have fully functioning GRM systems (staff are in place, procedures well developed and advertised, awareness building has been carried out). The NCUs and RCU have received and responded to questions and comments from the community through these and other systems which are reported on in annual reports and checked during supervision missions. 6/19/2024 Page 7 of 10 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363) Regional Climate Knowledge Services IN01425266 ►Number of multi-country climate coordination networks supported under Program, enabling intra-governmental, sectoral, NGO, etc. cooperation (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 4.00 9.00 3.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 20-May-2024 31-May-2024 Achieved as of July 2022. Since the beginning, the Project has organized 6 (six) Central Asia Regional Climate Change Conferences. The 6th CACCC will be in Almaty between May 27-29 and will focus on reviewing and enhancing the climate resilience initiatives being implemented across Central Asia, aiming to bolster support for governmental efforts and the broader populace in adapting to and mitigating climate change. Additionally and lately, the following key multi-country events were led by the Projects: an online conference focusing on the outcomes of the "Paris Agreement Art. 6 Cooperative approaches- Opportunities for Central Asia" (August 30, 2023); a hybrid conference on "Strengthening regional Comments: dialogue on Post 28th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC" in Dubai, UAE (December 01-12, 2023); the 10th Meeting of Central Asian Foreign Ministries and Parliamentarians on Climate Change (December 05, 2023); online coordination meetings with the UNFCCC Focal Points (October 17, 2023); and a series of presentations of the Central Asian Climate Investment Platform (CACIP). Overall, since the beginning, the CAMP4ASB regularly organized various events, including media training sessions (over 120 journalists and media representatives), youth participation in the Leadership Program, creation of climate platforms involving Central Asia's Foreign Ministries and Parliamentarians, and the establishment of the Coalition of Climate NGOs in Central Asia. IN01425269 ►Number of users of public climate data and analytical services provided by the platform (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 2,008.00 25,711.00 9,000.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 31-Aug-2023 20-May-2024 31-May-2024 Fully achieved as of May 2024. During the IDA phase, 7601 users were attracted, while during the GCF phase 16, 711 users were registered at the CACIP platform. 1. A substantial quantity of materials, including 767 diverse publications, printed materials, the online version of the NEXUS game, climate box, and various interactive instruments, have been uploaded onto Comments: the CACIP platform. 2. In addition, to enhance the geoportal platform of CACIP, 201 digital (vector) maps of natural resources, complemented by special instruments, have been incorporated. IN01425272 ►Improved understanding of gender-specific implications of climate change among key stakeholders and implementation of key activities (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 14.00 14.00 10.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 20-May-2024 31-May-2024 Fully achieved. Improved understanding of gender-specific implications of climate change among key stakeholders and implementation through 14 key activities and 87 learning events on gender issues. The project's commitment to gender inclusivity is reflected through both capacity-building activities and sub- Comments: projects in the average % participation rate of 34%, e.g.,23% in Tajikistan and 41% in Uzbekistan. The success of national-level events in both countries is demonstrated by an average satisfaction rating of 87.5%. This was validated during the field mission conducted by the regional team, which included a survey gathering feedback from CAREC staff via their back-to-office reports 6/19/2024 Page 8 of 10 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363) Performance-Based Conditions Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P151363 IDA-57410 Closed USD 14.00 13.47 0.53 13.46 0.00 100% P151363 IDA-57420 Closed USD 9.00 9.00 0.00 8.95 0.00 100% P151363 IDA-D0940 Effective USD 15.00 15.00 0.00 15.00 0.00 100% P151363 TF-B5997 Effective USD 9.00 9.00 0.00 8.96 0.04 100% P151363 TF-B5998 Effective USD 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.80 0.20 80% P151363 TF-B5999 Effective USD 9.00 9.00 0.00 8.70 0.30 97% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P151363 IDA-57410 Closed 03-Nov-2015 13-Mar-2017 28-Apr-2017 30-Apr-2021 30-Apr-2022 P151363 IDA-57420 Closed 03-Nov-2015 22-Jan-2016 04-Aug-2016 30-Apr-2021 30-Apr-2022 P151363 IDA-D0940 Effective 03-Nov-2015 01-Jul-2016 04-Aug-2016 30-Apr-2021 31-May-2024 P151363 TF-B5997 Effective 22-Jun-2021 24-Sep-2021 14-Jan-2022 31-May-2024 31-May-2024 P151363 TF-B5998 Effective 22-Jun-2021 18-Aug-2021 23-Oct-2021 31-May-2024 31-May-2024 P151363 TF-B5999 Effective 22-Jun-2021 25-Jun-2021 23-Oct-2021 31-May-2024 31-May-2024 Cumulative Disbursements 6/19/2024 Page 9 of 10 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363) Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 28-Jan-2017 ,Level 2 Approved on 06-Aug-2017 ,Level 2 Approved on 12-Feb-2019 ,Level 2 Approved on 21-Aug-2019 ,Level 2 Approved on 12-Oct-2020 ,Level 2 Approved on 18-Mar-2021 ,Level 2 Approved on 30-Apr-2021 Related Project(s) P163542-Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB Additional Financing 6/19/2024 Page 10 of 10