FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: PAD00242 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT ON A PROPOSED GRANT IN THE AMOUNT SDR 94.2 MILLION (US$125 MILLION EQUIVALENT) FROM THE CRISIS RESPONSE WINDOW TO THE REPUBLIC OF MOZAMBIQUE FOR A CLIMATE RESILIENT ROADS FOR THE NORTH PROJECT APRIL 4, 2024 Transport Global Practice Eastern and Southern Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Exchange Rate Effective February 29, 2024 Currency Unit = Mozambican Metical (MZN) US$1 = MZN 63.5 US$1 = SDR 0.75 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 Regional Vice President: Victoria Kwakwa Regional Director: Wendy E. Hughes Country Director: Zviripayi Idah Pswarayi Riddihough Practice Manager: Karla Gonzalez Carvajal Task Team Leaders: Emmanuel Taban, Naresha Duraiswamy ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADIN Agency for the Integrated Development of the North (Agência para o Desenvolvimento Integrado do Norte) AfDB African Development Bank ANE National Road Administration (Administração Nacional de Estradas) B/C Benefit/Cost Ratio CCDR Country Climate Development Report CPF Country Partnership Framework CRRN Climate Resilient Roads for the North CVRA Climate Vulnerability Risk Assessment DA Designated Account DBST Double Bituminous Surface Treatment EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return ESF Environmental and Social Framework ESIA Environmental and Social Impact Assessment ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework ESMP Environmental and Social Management Plan ESS Environmental and Social Standard EU European Union FE Road Fund (Fundo de Estradas) FM Financial Management GBV Gender‐Based Violence GDP Gross Domestic Product GEMS Geo-Enabling Initiative for Monitoring and Supervision GHG Greenhouse Gas GoM Government of Mozambique GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism GRS Grievance Redress Service HDM‐4 Highway Development and Management Model Four, Version 2.0 IFR Interim Financial Report IFRDP Integrated Feeder Road Development Project INGC National Institute of Disaster Management (Instituto Nacional de Gestão e Redução do Risco de Desastres) IPF Investment Project Financing LCA Local Community Association LNG Liquified Natural Gas LTS Long-term Strategies aka Long-term low GHG emission development strategies M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MOPHRH Ministry of Public Works, Housing, and Water Resources (Ministério das Obras Públicas, Habitação e Recursos Hídricos) MTC Ministry of Transport and Communication NAP National Adaptation Plans NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NPV Net Present Value PDO Project Development Objective PIM Project Implementation Manual PIU Project Implementation Unit PPSD Project Procurement Strategy for Development PRISE Integrated Road Sector Program (Programa Integrado do Sector de Estradas) PSC Project Steering Committee PSI Project Safety Impact RAI Rural Access Index RAP Resettlement Action Plan RSSAT Road Safety Screening and Appraisal Tool SATCP Southern Africa Trade and Connectivity Project SEA Sexual Exploitation and Abuse SEP Stakeholder Engagement Plan SH Sexual Harassment SMEs Small and Medium Enterprises SMP Security Management Plan SRA Security Risk Assessment SRSEI Safer Roads for Socio-Economic Integration Program STEM Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNOPS United Nations Office for Project Services VRU Vulnerable Road User WBG World Bank Group The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) TABLE OF CONTENTS DATASHEET ............................................................................................................................ i I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT ...................................................................................................... 1 A. Country Context ............................................................................................................................... 1 B. Sectoral and Institutional Context ................................................................................................... 3 C. Relevance to Higher Level Objectives .............................................................................................. 6 II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION.................................................................................................... 7 A. Project Development Objective ....................................................................................................... 7 B. Project Components ........................................................................................................................ 7 C. Project Beneficiaries ...................................................................................................................... 11 D. Results Chain .................................................................................................................................. 11 E. Rationale for Bank Involvement and Role of Partners................................................................... 12 F. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design ................................................................... 13 III. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS ............................................................................ 14 A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements .......................................................................... 14 B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements ........................................................................ 15 C. Sustainability .................................................................................................................................. 15 IV. PROJECT APPRAISAL SUMMARY ................................................................................... 16 A. Technical, Economic and Financial Analyses ................................................................................. 16 B. Fiduciary ......................................................................................................................................... 18 C. Legal Operational Policies .............................................................................................................. 19 D. Environmental and Social .............................................................................................................. 19 E. Climate and Disaster Risk Screening, Paris Alignment and Climate Co-Benefits ........................... 22 F. Gender ........................................................................................................................................... 22 G. Citizen Engagement ....................................................................................................................... 23 V. GRIEVANCE REDRESS SERVICES ..................................................................................... 23 VI. KEY RISKS ..................................................................................................................... 23 VII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING ................................................................... 25 ANNEX 1: IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS AND SUPPORT PLAN.................................... 32 ANNEX 2: CLIMATE RISKS AND PARIS ALIGNMENT ............................................................... 36 ANNEX 3: PROMOTING LANDSCAPE RESTORATION AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE IN QUIRIMBAS NATIONAL PARK ....................................................................................................... 41 ANNEX 4: PROJECT MAPS .................................................................................................... 42 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padbasicinformation#doctemplate DATASHEET BASIC INFORMATION Project Operation Name Beneficiary(ies) Mozambique Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project Environmental and Social Risk Operation ID Financing Instrument Classification Investment Project P500488 Substantial Financing (IPF) @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padprocessing#doctemplate Financing & Implementation Modalities [ ] Multiphase Programmatic Approach (MPA) [✓] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) [ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [✓] Fragile State(s) [ ] Performance-Based Conditions (PBCs) [ ] Small State(s) [ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Fragile within a non-fragile Country [ ] Project-Based Guarantee [✓] Conflict [ ] Deferred Drawdown [✓] Responding to Natural or Man-made Disaster [ ] Alternative Procurement Arrangements (APA) [ ] Hands-on Expanded Implementation Support (HEIS) Expected Approval Date Expected Closing Date 25-Apr-2024 30-Jun-2030 Bank/IFC Collaboration No Proposed Development Objective(s) The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to improve climate resilient road connectivity in the Northern Provinces of Mozambique. Components Component Name Cost (US$) Component 1: Climate Resilient Road Connectivity Improvement 119,600,000.00 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) Component 2: Safe Access and Mobility Improvement 2,500,000.00 Component 3: Institutional Strengthening and Project Management 2,900,000.00 Component 4: Contingent Emergency Response 0.00 @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padborrower#doctemplate Organizations Borrower: Republic of Mozambique Ministério das Obras Públicas, Habitação e Recursos Hídricos (Ministry of Public Works, Implementing Agency: Housing, and Water Resources), Fundo de Estradas (Road Fund), Administração Nacional de Estradas (National Road Administration) @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padfinancingsummary#doctemplate PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions) Maximizing Finance for Development Is this an MFD-Enabling Project (MFD-EP)? No Is this project Private Capital Enabling (PCE)? No SUMMARY Total Operation Cost 125.00 Total Financing 125.00 of which IBRD/IDA 125.00 Financing Gap 0.00 DETAILS World Bank Group Financing International Development Association (IDA) 125.00 IDA Grant 125.00 IDA Resources (US$, Millions) The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) Guarantee Credit Amount Grant Amount SML Amount Total Amount Amount Crisis Response 0.00 125.00 0.00 0.00 125.00 Window (CRW) Total 0.00 125.00 0.00 0.00 125.00 @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@paddisbursementprojection#doctemplate Expected Disbursements (US$, Millions) WB Fiscal Year 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Annual 0.00 15.00 25.00 30.00 30.00 15.00 10.00 Cumulative 0.00 15.00 40.00 70.00 100.00 115.00 125.00 @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padclimatechange#doctemplate PRACTICE AREA(S) Practice Area (Lead) Contributing Practice Areas Agriculture and Food; Fragile, Conflict & Violence; Transport Infrastructure, PPP's & Guarantees; Social Sustainability and Inclusion CLIMATE Climate Change and Disaster Screening Yes, it has been screened and the results are discussed in the Operation Document @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padrisk#doctemplate SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK- RATING TOOL (SORT) Risk Category Rating 1. Political and Governance ⚫ Substantial 2. Macroeconomic ⚫ Moderate 3. Sector Strategies and Policies ⚫ Substantial 4. Technical Design of Project or Program ⚫ Moderate The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) 5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability ⚫ Substantial 6. Fiduciary ⚫ Substantial 7. Environment and Social ⚫ Substantial 8. Stakeholders ⚫ Moderate 9. Other ⚫ Substantial 10. Overall ⚫ Substantial @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padcompliance#doctemplate POLICY COMPLIANCE Policy Does the project depart from the CPF in content or in other significant respects? [ ] Yes [✓] No Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies? [ ] Yes [✓] No ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL Environmental and Social Standards Relevance Given its Context at the Time of Appraisal E & S Standards Relevance ESS 1: Assessment and Management of Environmental and Social Risks and Relevant Impacts ESS 10: Stakeholder Engagement and Information Disclosure Relevant ESS 2: Labor and Working Conditions Relevant ESS 3: Resource Efficiency and Pollution Prevention and Management Relevant ESS 4: Community Health and Safety Relevant ESS 5: Land Acquisition, Restrictions on Land Use and Involuntary Resettlement Relevant ESS 6: Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Management of Living Natural Relevant Resources ESS 7: Indigenous Peoples/Sub-Saharan African Historically Underserved Not Currently Relevant Traditional Local Communities ESS 8: Cultural Heritage Relevant ESS 9: Financial Intermediaries Not Currently Relevant The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) NOTE: For further information regarding the World Bank’s due diligence assessment of the Project’s potential environmental and social risks and impacts, please refer to the Project’s Appraisal Environmental and Social Review Summary (ESRS). @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padlegalcovenants#doctemplate LEGAL Legal Covenants Sections and Description Financing Agreement Schedule 2 Section I. A.1:The Recipient shall cause FE to cause ANE, through the Cooperation Agreement to not later than 30 days after the Effective Date to establish and thereafter maintain at all times during the implementation of the Project a unit within ANE (“PIU”), located in Cabo Delgado and responsible for day-to-day management of the Project, including: (i) managing the implementation of the Project activities under its responsibility; (ii) managing the safeguards aspects; (iii) coordinating the preparation, adjustments, and use of the Project management tools; (iv) coordinating with key stakeholders including ANE, on the technical aspects of the Parts of the Project under its responsibility; and (v) preparing Project reports. Financing Agreement Schedule 2 Section I. A.2: The Recipient, through MOPHRH shall establish, not later than four (4) months after the Effective Date, and maintain, throughout the implementation of the Project, a steering committee (“Project Steering Committee” or “PSC”), with a composition, mandate, and resources satisfactory to the Association and detailed in the PIM. The PSC will meet at least twice a year and will hold extraordinary meetings when necessary, and will comprise representatives of MOPHRH, FE, ANE, MTC, MEF, Provincial Secretariats and others as needed. ANE and FE shall act as the Secretariat of the Project Steering Committee. Financing Agreement Schedule 2 Section I. A.3.(i): The Recipient shall and shall cause FE to hire, and thereafter maintain throughout Project implementation: not later than 120 days after the Effective Date, a third-party monitoring agency, under terms of reference and with qualifications and experience satisfactory to the Association, to carry out every six months an independent review of the Project’s implementation and verification of results, including adherence to all aspects of the PIM and ESCP, and an independent assessment of the Project’s compliance with the ESF instruments, with a particular focus on GBV/SEA/SH aspects. The SEA/SH/GVB third-party monitoring agency shall furnish to the Association in a timely manner every 6 months, monitoring reports in form and substance acceptable to the Association. Financing Agreement Schedule 2 Section I. A.3.(ii):The Recipient shall and shall cause FE to hire, and thereafter maintain throughout Project implementation: not later than 90 days after the Effective Date, a SEA/SH service provider, under terms of reference and with qualifications and experience satisfactory to the Association, to support FE and ANE the implementation of the actions related to the implementation of the GVB risk management outlined in the SEA/GBV/SH Risk Assessment and Action Plan. The SEA/SH service provider shall furnish to the Association in a timely manner quarterly monitoring reports in form and substance acceptable to the Association. Financing Agreement Schedule 2 Section I. D.1: The Recipient shall cause FE, not later than thirty days after the Effective Date, to prepare a Project Implementation Manual (“PIM”), acceptable to the Association and thereafter implement the Project, and cause ANE through the Cooperation Agreement to, implement the Project in accordance with the PIM. Financing Agreement Schedule 2 Section I. F.1: The Recipient shall cause FE not later than November 30 of each year, prepare and furnish to the Association, an annual program of activities proposed for implementation under the Project during the following Fiscal Year, together with a proposed budget, including amounts of counterpart funding. Financing Agreement Schedule 2 Section II.1:1. The Recipient shall cause FE to furnish to the Association each Project Report not later than 45 days after the end of each calendar semester, covering the calendar semester. The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padconditions#doctemplate Conditions Type Citation Description Financing Source That the Subsidiary Agreement have been executed on behalf of the Effectiveness Article V.5.01(a) Recipient and FE in IBRD/IDA accordance with terms and conditions satisfactory to the Association. That the Cooperation Agreement has been executed between FE and Effectiveness Article V.5.01(b) ANE, in accordance with IBRD/IDA terms and conditions satisfactory to the Association. The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT A. Country Context 1. Mozambique is endowed with rich natural resources, but faces substantial development challenges, including poverty, inequality, limited job creation and slow structural transformation. While the country is endowed with ample arable land, water, energy, mineral resources, and offshore natural gas, much of the population lives in poverty. Mozambique is one of the most unequal countries in Sub-Saharan Africa – partly reflecting low and uneven human and physical capital accumulation. Over half a million people enter the labor force each year, but less than 30,000 new formal jobs are created annually.1 The private sector could become an engine of economic transformation and job creation, but it has been hampered by regulatory bottlenecks, a large infrastructure deficit, and a high cost of credit. 2. The Government’s capacity to finance development is heavily constrained. With 70 percent of tax revenue in 2021–2022 absorbed by the wage bill and debt service costs, Mozambique can only allocate limited resources to public investment and social spending.2 The 2016 hidden debt crisis led to an economic crisis while real gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 3.3 percent for 2016–2019, barely above population growth. Natural disasters in 2019, including Cyclones Idai and Kenneth, and the COVID-19 pandemic further pushed real per capita GDP growth down to −1.2 percent for 2020.3 Economic growth has since picked up momentum, supported by strong services and liquified natural gas (LNG) production. After a modest recovery in 2021, growth gathered pace in 2022, reaching 4.2 percent, and accelerated to 5 percent in 2023.4 Mozambique is expected to become a global gas player with the third largest gas reserves in Sub-Saharan Africa after Nigeria and Senegal. In November 2022, Mozambique began exporting LNG from the Coral South Floating LNG facility. In addition, two larger-scale onshore LNG projects could be developed, the Total Energies operated Mozambique LNG, and the Exxon-Mobil operated Rovuma LNG. 3. Mozambique is at high risk of debt distress. The country lacks access to the international capital markets and external concessional financing remains limited. Although total public debt has declined in recent years, domestic debt has continued to rise. Elevated domestic debt reflects spending by the Government to address the security and humanitarian situation in Cabo Delgado, short-term financing needs of underperforming state-owned enterprises, and debt service. 4. Poverty is disproportionately rural and in the north. The national poverty rate was estimated at 63 percent in 2019/20, up from 48 percent in 2014/15.5 Rural poverty is particularly high at 72 percent.6 The provinces of Cabo Delgado and Nampula together with Zambezia7 account for almost 60 percent of the country’s poor. About 81 percent of Nampula’s population live below the poverty line while 77.6 percent of Cabo Delgado is poor.8 1 World Bank Mozambique Country Economic Memorandum: Reigniting Growth for All (2022). Report No. 171989. 2 World Bank Mozambique Macro Poverty Outlook (April 2024) 3 World Bank Mozambique Country Economic Memorandum: Reigniting Growth for All (2022). Report No. 171989. 4 World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook (2024). 5 World Bank. 2023. Poverty Reduction Setback in Times of Compounding Shocks - Mozambique Poverty Assessment (Report No: 184848); Instituto Nacional de Estadística’s 2019/20 Household Budget Survey. 6 About two-thirds of the total population of Mozambique live in rural areas. The World Bank. Investing in Mozambique’s Connectivity: Toward Efficient, Sustainable Road Spending (2021) 7 While Cabo Delgado and Nampula are in the north, adjacent Zambezia is in the center of the country. 8 The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Mozambique FY23–27 (Report No: 176672-MZ). Page 1 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) 5. Mozambique is confronted with compound risks that include conflict, climate vulnerability, poverty, and poor internal connectivity. The north is affected on all counts. The civil conflict in the far north, if not addressed, has the potential to spread, affecting adjacent areas in the country and neighboring Tanzania. The recurrent climate hazards affect livelihoods and service delivery. The limited internal connectivity in the north hinders recovery from the interconnected shocks. These multidimensional risks reinforce each other contributing to a difficult context in the north. Considering this, the Government has developed an integrated approach to address the complex development constraints of the region. It has begun work to rebuild destroyed districts under its Cabo Delgado Reconstruction Plan9 of September 2021, supported by the World Bank. The Government also approved the Integrated Development and Resilience Program of Northern Mozambique10 in June 2022, and intends to address the drivers of fragility and conflict and unleash the potential of the north for a sustainable and inclusive recovery. This project is the latest in several World Bank-financed interventions to help address the multiple and intersecting socioeconomic challenges. 6. The seven-year conflict in the gas-rich northern province of Cabo Delgado11 is of particular concern. Despite partial stabilization in 2021, sporadic attacks continue.12 The insurgents had previously attacked LNG-related construction sites, district headquarters, administrative buildings, police stations, and villages leading to a collapse in local administration in parts of the province. While 400,000 residents have returned to their places of origin, 800,000 continue to be displaced in the north.13 The humanitarian situation remains critical, with around 2 million people in the three northern provinces of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa in need of assistance.14 Women were disproportionally affected by the conflict. Preexisting social norms and inequalities are often heightened during crises and displacement, further eroding women’s human capital and economic security with increased exposure to gender-based violence (GBV).15 7. Climate hazards represent an added challenge in the north. Mozambique is the second country most exposed to floods and cyclones in Africa on account of its location and its 104 river basins. The country faced over one hundred adverse climate impacts and intense rainfall events in the last 20 years. Extreme weather events struck in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023 causing massive damage to road infrastructure and taking lives.16 The last one in 2023, affected 1.1 million people and displaced 640,000. The South-West Indian Ocean basin is prone to extreme weather events. The intertropical convergence zone and the La Niña phenomenon lead to flooding each year. The recurrent exposure to natural hazards is anticipated to increase with climate change. These factors pose a risk to the low-lying coastline in the north where over 60 percent of the population live. The impact of climate hazards on the north is disproportionate, leading to extensive damage to roads and bridges, the extended isolation of remote communities, and the prolonged disruption of services and economic livelihood. It worsened the already high levels of poverty and could act as a threat amplifier where conditions of fragility already exist. Entire villages in the districts of Ibo, Macomia, Mecufi, Metuge, Mueda, Muidumbe, and Quissanga in Cabo Delgado were destroyed by extreme weather events in recent years. The partial isolation of parts of the districts persists on account of the climate-induced degradation of the road network. Against this background, the project’s initial physical interventions will focus on Cabo Delgado Province and prepare follow-on investments for Nampula 9 Plano de Reconstrução de Cabo Delgado. 10 Programa de Resiliência e Desenvolvimento Integrado do Norte de Moçambique. 11 Cabo Delgado is home to rich mineral and natural resources, including natural gas reserves in the off-shore Rovuma Basin. 12 For information on the causes of the conflict, see World Bank, Mozambique Risk and Resilience Assessment, December 2020. 13 Mozambique National Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Reduction, August 10, 2023. 14 Unless addressed, there is a risk that the localized conflict can spread, potentially affecting the Mtwara region of southern Tanzania and the neighboring province of Nampula and maritime security in the Mozambique channel. 15 World Bank. 2023. Mozambique Gender Assessment: Leveraging Women and Girls’ Potential. (Report No: 184928). Displacement due to conflict in Cabo Delgado greatly affected women through disrupted access to health and education services, GBV, abduction, and forced early marriage as an economic coping strategy. Female-headed households faced higher rates of food insecurity. 16 Cyclones Idai and Kenneth, Tropical Storm Chalane and Cyclone Eloise, Cyclone Gombe, and Cyclone Freddie, respectively. Page 2 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) and Niassa Provinces. Steps will be taken to climate proof the roads to be upgraded. For more information on the climate risks and the explicit steps that the project will take to address them, refer to project description, appraisal summary, and Annex 2. 8. A resumption of economic activity is vital for recovery in the north. That in turn is partly contingent on the restoration of the currently degraded road network. The rehabilitation of the road network will help (a) connect smallholder farmers and rural populations to markets and urban centers; (b) support improved livelihood opportunities; (c) strengthen socioeconomic inclusion; (d) enhance access to public services; and (e) allow for eventual regional integration as explained in the project description. The initial roads identified for upgrading will provide access to 54 schools, 14 health care centers, and six district headquarters. The project will identify more roads for future upgrading based on these very principles. Improved road connectivity is part of the development response that the project interventions will address. The north is well endowed with gas and wildlife parks and is at the crossroads of regional integration. A revived north is ideally positioned to strengthen regional links with Malawi and Tanzania. B. Sectoral and Institutional Context 9. While road transport accounts for one-third of the freight traffic and 98 percent of passenger traffic, just under half of the population lack easy access to the road network.17 With a road network of about 30,600 km of classified roads, of which only 27 percent are paved, Mozambique has a low road density of 3.9 km per 100 km2 of land, which is among the lowest in the world.18 Additionally, the condition of the network is highly variable. There is a marked difference in the road condition between provinces, with the southern roads being in a better state compared to the northern part of the country. 10. The Government did better in the maintenance and improvement of the country’s road network before the 2016 debt crisis.19 Substantial internal and external resources were allocated for the road sector and the overall conditions of roads had improved. On average, US$400 million or about 2 percent of the GDP was apportioned for road sector development annually between 2010 and 2018.20 It was among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa and contributed to a noticeable improvement in overall road conditions. However, available resources for the road sector halved after the debt crisis. The share of paved roads in good or fair condition declined from 91 percent to 74 percent between 2015 and 2022. For unpaved roads, it dropped from 70 percent to 45 percent, impeding people’s connectivity everywhere. This coincided with a significant increase in poverty in the country. The road network is particularly challenged in the north. 11. Routine maintenance occurred in just 40 percent of classified roads in 2020. Low budget execution, high transaction costs,21 and a financing gap affect road maintenance. A strategic prioritization focused on road maintenance and increased resource mobilization is required. To optimally improve and maintain the current road network, it is estimated that US$560 million will be required each year for the next 5 years and US$370 million each year for the following 15 years. The heightened expenditure is on account of the recent deterioration of the road network and the increased costs linked to international commodity prices and the elevated climate resilience threshold now required for road infrastructure. Without significant increases in road investment, the country’s road assets will deteriorate further 17 Mozambique National Institute of Statistics (Instituto Nacional de Estatistica Mocambique), 2023. 18 Mozambique National Institute of Statistics (Instituto Nacional de Estatistica Mocambique), 2023. 19 Mozambique had contracted an undisclosed US$1.3 billion in non-concessional debt between 2009 and 2014, which was equal to 10 percent of its GDP. The World Bank. Investing in Mozambique’s Connectivity: Toward Efficient, Sustainable Road Spending (2021) 20 The World Bank. Investing in Mozambique’s Connectivity: Toward Efficient, Sustainable Road Spending (2021) 21 Small-scale and short-duration maintenance contracts. Page 3 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) and be lost. It is also essential to support (a) the development of a road asset management strategy that provides for rehabilitation and routine maintenance to facilitate a steady-state condition of the classified network where annual needs become more manageable with available resources, and (b) an institutional framework where the road agency becomes a results and client-oriented organization with clear accountability for outcomes and a system of incentives for performance improvement. The project will endeavor to support road asset management in the north. 12. Annual weather events affect the road sector. In March and April of 2019, Cyclones Idai and Kenneth hit the northern region of Mozambique, destroying critical infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and building infrastructure, with Cabo Delgado and Nampula among the worst affected. A post-disaster needs assessment identified US$1.4 billion of damages and US$3.2 billion of needs, with road sector needs estimated at nearly US$500 million.22 About 1,968 km of roads were damaged, with 6,142 km impassable, of which 1,529 km were in the Cabo Delgado and Nampula Provinces. Tropical Storm Ana, Tropical Depression Dumako, and Tropical Cyclone Gombe affected the northern and central part of Mozambique from January to March 2022. The most recent severe weather-related disaster took place in February and March 2023 when Cyclone Freddy hit the northern and central regions of the country. The provinces of Nampula and Niassa were the most affected by heavy rains and flooding. Overall, these recent cyclones (2022 and 2023) resulted in extensive damage to about 8,800 km of roads in the country. The estimated damage to infrastructure ranged from US$370 million to US$540 million. Government funds earmarked for routine road maintenance were reallocated for emergency repairs instead. This resulted in a shortage of resources for longer-term capital expenditure and maintenance. Investment in climate proofing more suited to Mozambique’s geological and hydrological situation is therefore required. Refer to project description, appraisal summary, and Annex 2 for the adaptation measures that the project intends to introduce in the context of Cabo Delgado. 13. Rural accessibility has declined in recent years.23 The Rural Access Index (RAI)24 significantly declined in Niassa (from 37 to 24) and Cabo Delgado (from 42 to 34) between 2015 and 2022. This raises concerns about rural connectivity and livelihoods. However, the RAI registered an increase in Nampula from 34 to 36, which is attributed to World Bank support to rural roads rehabilitation under the Integrated Feeder Road Development Project (IFRDP, P158231)25 and the PROMOVE Transporte project26 financed by the European Union (EU). From the poverty reduction and climate resilience point of view, particular attention on Cabo Delgado and Niassa is required. 14. Mozambique has one of the highest road crash fatality rates in the world. It ranks 165 out of 173 nations on road safety.27 The proposed upgrade of gravel roads to paved road standards with smoother surface will have the effect of increasing the average vehicle speed and hence lead to a higher incidence and severity of road crashes. The project will therefore include a detailed road safety audit to identify necessary road safety measures, especially traffic calming interventions at critical locations to minimize the impact on road crashes. The greatest safety gains are expected to come from (a) speed management, with an average operating speed of 50 km per hour (kph) in urban areas and 65 kph in rural 22 Mozambique Cyclone Idai 2019: Post Disaster Needs Assessment 23 In 2022, about 20.4 million people lived in rural Mozambique, out of which 14.7 million were estimated to have had no access to an all-season road, an increase of about 9.5 million since 2010. 24 It measures the proportion of people with access to an all-season road within an approximate walking distance of 2 km or a walking time of 25 minutes. 25 IFRDP (P158231) was approved by the World Bank in 2018 with an initial amount of US$150 million. It received two additional financings totaling US$135 million. 26 PROMOVE Transporte Project is a €124 million rural roads project financed by the EU in the provinces of Nampula and Zambezia. 27 The fatality rate in Mozambique at 31.6 per 100,000 surpasses the average for all of Africa. The economic impact of road fatalities and serious injuries is anticipated to reach US$1.2 billion in 2026, constituting 10.4 percent of the country's annual GDP. Page 4 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) areas; (b) dedicated pedestrian walkways; (c) raised pedestrian crossings; (d) marked facilities for bicyclists and motorcyclists; and (e) the installation of roundabouts at busy junctions. 15. The poor condition of roads affects women’s access to livelihoods and services. 48.7 percent of female respondents ages 15–19 and 50.9 percent of those ages 20–34 indicated distance as the main factor limiting their access to health facilities.28 Access to secondary education in rural areas is constrained by a similar lack of safe transportation and distance.29 In Mozambique, only 12.8 percent of girls who enrolled in secondary school complete their studies. Gender gaps in access to education are generally wider in northern provinces where girls’ gross enrollment in upper primary is 10 percentage points below that of boys.30 Limited access to transportation hinders women’s participation in markets.31 Proxy data from other countries reveal that women have less access to intermediate modes of transport than men and face specific barriers such as gender norms and lack of knowledge about using bicycles.32 16. Employment in the road sector is male dominated. Women face structural barriers to participation in road works, including pervasive gender norms and lack of information on job opportunities. The female share of graduates from science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) programs in tertiary education has been growing in recent years (21.4 percent in 2015; 29.3 percent in 2020).33 There is still a gap between the number of women and men employed in the transport sector, where only 6.4 percent of employees are women.34 In terms of lower-skilled jobs, only 3 percent of women are employed in construction. Barriers for women are related to entry and recruitment,35 retention,36 and promotion.37 In addition, difficulties finding women skilled in rehabilitation and maintenance has been one of the main barriers for women’s participation in the north, regardless of the occasional intent of contractors to hire them. 17. The institutional architecture of the road sector in Mozambique is split between the Ministry of Public Works, Housing and Water Resources (Ministério das Obras Públicas, Habitação e Recursos Hídricos, MOPHRH) and the Ministry of Transport and Communication (MTC). The Road Fund (Fundo de Estradas, FE) and National Road Administration (Administração Nacional de Estradas, ANE) are two Government institutions that manage classified roads and report to MOPHRH. The FE leads strategy, planning, and monitoring of road works. It mobilizes funds and is responsible for financial management (FM). ANE executes road works. Its functions include the procurement of construction materials, equipment, and personnel. Districts manage unclassified roads while municipalities administer the municipal roads. 18. The decentralization reforms of June 2018 led to a partial delegation of authority to the provincial and district administrations.38 Provincial Governors and Assemblies were elected for the first time in October 2019. As the project is intended to rehabilitate, upgrade, and climate proof roads and bridges in the three northern provinces of Cabo Delgado, 28 Information cited in the USAID, Mozambique Demographic and Health Surveys, 2011. 29 Mozambique Gender Assessment: Leveraging Women and Girls’ Potential. World Bank. May 2023. (Report No: 184928) 30 Ibid 31 Ibid 32 Porter, Gina, K. Blaufuss, and F. Owusu Acheampong. 2012. “Gendered Patterns of IMT Adoption and Use: Learning from Action Research.” Research in Transportation Economics 34 (1): 11–15. 33 World Bank’s Gender Data Portal. https://genderdata.worldbank.org/indicators/se-ter-grad-fe- zs/?fieldOfStudy=Science%2C%20Technology%2C%20Engineering%20and%20Mathematics%20%28STEM%29&groups=SSF&view=bar&year=2018 34 International Labor Organization. 2022. “ILOSTAT”. ILO, Geneva. https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/country-profiles/. 35 Lack of information, absence of gender-sensitive processes in recruitment, limited aspirations, and stereotypes of STEM careers being only for men. 36 Lack of benefits and flexible schedules and no mechanisms to respond to sexual harassment (SH). 37 Gender gaps in access to training and mentoring programs. 38 Mozambique Urban Development and Decentralization Project: P163989: Project Appraisal Document, June 2020: pages 10–13. Page 5 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) Nampula and Niassa, efforts will be taken to establish and empower a decentralized Project Implementation Unit (PIU) to take on additional implementation responsibilities in a phased manner over time in partnership with the provincial and district administrations. However, implementation challenges will remain due to a lack of clarity in decision-making roles, funding, and overall maintenance between the center and the provinces.39 The project will address this challenge through the component on capacity building and its implementation arrangements that will include the PIU based in the north. C. Relevance to Higher Level Objectives 19. The project is intended to contribute to the higher-level objectives of strengthened climate resilience, reduced fragility, and improved livelihoods. It is envisioned to contribute to climate resilience and help support the conditions for recovery and development in the conflict-affected north of the country. It will include measures to climate proof and, where appropriate, green the road infrastructure in the north to ensure year-round connectivity and reduce unplanned expenditure on the rehabilitation of roads and bridges after a severe weather event. That in turn is expected to release funds for programmed capital expenditure. The investment in road connectivity in the north is anticipated to enhance year-round access to markets, services, and jobs. The impetus to local economic growth, livelihood generation, and access to services through improved connectivity is expected to contribute to the stabilization of a fragile context. 20. The project is aligned with World Bank priorities. It is in line with the World Bank’s Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Mozambique for FY23–27 (Report No. 176672), discussed by the Board on February 23, 2023, specifically, (a) Objective 3, Strengthened Crisis and Disaster Preparedness; (b) Objective 6, Expanded infrastructure services; and (c) the emphasis on addressing the country’s fragility risks. The project is also aligned with the World Bank Group (WBG) Gender Strategy (FY24-30),40 and the World Bank East Africa Gender Action Plan.41 It is aligned with the World Bank’s Evolution Priorities, its mission to end extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity on a livable planet, and the priorities of Eastern and Southern Africa region. It will directly address the World Bank’s new mission and vision by promoting climate change adaptation. 21. The project is aligned with the National Development Strategy 2015–2035 of the Government of Mozambique (GoM). The strategy is intended to (a) close the infrastructure gap; (b) address the Sustainable Development Goals pertaining to climate resilience, infrastructure, and agricultural productivity; and (c) reduce the proportion of the population living in poverty. The project also fits in with the Government’s strategy for the road sector intended to (a) invest in poorer, less developed parts of the country; (b) increase the road network’s resilience in provinces most affected by extreme weather events; and (c) generate employment opportunities in rural areas through labor-intensive maintenance. With its focus on the reconstruction of the north, the project is in step with the Government’s Cabo Delgado Reconstruction Plan, and the Integrated Development and Resilience Program for Northern Mozambique. 22. The project is aligned with Mozambique’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).42 In the latest NDC submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), transport and climate-resilient infrastructure are listed as key priority areas.43 On adaptation, Mozambique commits to drafting and updating climate- 39 While the policy and supervision of road works lies with the center, responsibility for the provision of infrastructure services is shared by the center, the province, the district, and the municipality. 40 World Bank, Gender Strategy 2024-2030: Accelerate Gender Equality for a Sustainable, Resilient and Inclusive Future. (Report No: 184051) 41 World Bank, Regional Gender Action Plan for Eastern and Southern Africa (AFE) FY24-28 (Report No: 188069) 42 Update to the First Nationally Determined Contribution to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: Mozambique 2020- 2025. This is the Government’s climate action plan to cut emissions and adapt to climate impacts. 43 The country commits to reducing emissions from 2020 to 2025 by approximately 40 million tCO eq, that is, tons of CO equivalent. 2 2 Page 6 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) robust planning instruments and ensuring that public investments are climate proofed.44 The project contributes to the NDC by enhancing the climate resilience of targeted roads and bridges in Cabo Delgado Province; improving the capacity of Government agencies to respond to extreme climate events; and integrating climate risk considerations in road asset management, investment planning, and road maintenance. The World Bank’s Country Climate Development Report (CCDR) for Mozambique45 highlights the importance of reducing the impact of climate change risks on transport infrastructure and improved flood protection. II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION A. Project Development Objective PDO Statement 23. The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to improve climate resilient road connectivity in the Northern Provinces of Mozambique. PDO Level Indicators (a) People with improved access to climate-resilient road transport infrastructure (number); Women and youth with improved access to climate-resilient road transport infrastructure (percentage) (b) Reduction in travel time along project rehabilitated and upgraded roads (hours). B. Project Components 24. The project will have four components and will include the following activities: 25. Component 1: Climate Resilient Road Connectivity Improvement (US$119.6 million equivalent). This component will support the improvement of roads and bridges in the north. (a) Subcomponent 1.1: Improvement and maintenance of road network (US$81.5 million equivalent). This subcomponent will finance (i) feasibility studies and engineering designs as well as the upgrading and rehabilitation of existing roads in Cabo Delgado Province, comprising upgrading from gravel to paved standard with a total of 52 km between Mueda and Xitaxi of the secondary road N38146 and 15 km between Muepane and Quissanga47 of the tertiary road R76248 and rehabilitation of 25 km between Muagamula and 44 Meanwhile, on mitigation, Mozambique commits to the mainstreaming of alternative low-carbon energy sources. 45 World Bank Group, Country Climate and Development Report: Mozambique, 2023 (Report No: 183543) 46 The 133 km N381 connects Ngapa in northern Cabo Delgado and Xitaxi. Ngapa, is on the Mueda–Negomano road that connects to Tanzania through the Unity Bridge. The upgrading of the N381 is part of an initiative linked to the Mtwara development corridor, involving northern Mozambique, southern Tanzania, eastern Malawi, and eastern Zambia to provide road, rail, and waterway access to the Port of Mtwara in Tanzania. The World Bank will finance the upgrading of 52 km of this road between Mueda and Xitaxi. The AfDB has already completed 71 km of the road. 47 Total length of this road segment is 88 km. About 15 km of critical road segments will be upgraded under this project due to funding limitation. Further, the R762 passes through the Quirimbas National Park. This provides an opportunity to green the project. See Annex 3 for more details. 48 The 291 km R762 connects Muepane, located on the N1 North–South Highway, and the gas rich region of Palma along the coast. It is also adjacent to the Tanzanian border. Page 7 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) Xitaxi of the paved secondary road N380;49 (ii) monitoring consultancy services for the implementation of the road rehabilitation and upgrading works; (iii) feasibility study, concept engineering design, and bid documents for upgrading and/or rehabilitation of other roads in all three northern provinces for follow-on operation(s); (iv) preparation of one site-specific Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA)/ Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP) and Resettlement Action Plans (RAPs), including land acquisition for road upgrading and rehabilitation in Cabo Delgado Province; and (v) multiyear output-based routine paved road maintenance including monitoring consultancy services. (b) Subcomponent 1.2: Construction of bridges (US$38.1 million equivalent). This subcomponent will finance the (i) feasibility study, concept engineering design, new construction, and implementation monitoring of five concrete bridges50 with climate resilient features incorporated along the secondary road N380 in Cabo Delgado Province; (ii) design, supply, installation, and monitoring of works for 1,500 meters of Bailey bridges along tertiary roads in all three northern provinces, including the construction of the climate-resilient substructure of the bridges; and (iii) development of a bridge construction program for northern Mozambique involving preparation of feasibility study, concept engineering design, and bid documents. Bailey bridges are considered in the project due to their degree of versatility, large load-bearing capacity, rapid deployment and mobility, and cost-efficiency. Bailey bridges are also very durable and can withstand extreme weather conditions. Weather patterns have become increasingly unpredictable due to climate change and climate resilient infrastructure must allow for quick adaptation measures to be placed. Given its mobility and straight forward construction procedures, bailey bridges will allow for modifications and quick fixes. They are also portable and can be relocated in the unlikely event of the location being no longer suitable for bridges. Dedicated sidewalks along the bridges will be ensured to allow for nonmotorized transport. See Annex 2 for more information on the adaptation measures proposed for the bridges to be constructed. 26. Rationale for selection of roads. The three roads to be rehabilitated in Cabo Delgado under the project were identified to better address issues of local economic growth and conflict mitigation.51 The identified roads provide a link between the provincial capital, district administrative centers, and the rural hinterland. These roads connect the agricultural hinterland with markets. The roads are currently impassable during the rainy season reducing northern Cabo Delgado to inaccessible enclaves without internal connectivity. The road works and bridges are intended to allow for uninterrupted access to services such as health care, education, and markets; the continuous movement of goods and people; and improved spatial integration. Further, the identified roads either link up with the Tanzanian border in the north or with the N1 that is the main highway corridor between Pemba in the north and Maputo in the south. Improved connectivity is therefore a preliminary step toward eventual cross-border trade and integration. The segments of these roads selected for rehabilitation also complement ongoing and planned road works financed by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the EU on road segments of these very same corridors. The intention is to ensure year-round connectivity between the conflict-affected districts of Macomia, Mocimboa da Praia, Mucufi, Mueda, Muidunge, Nangade, Palma, Pemba, and Quissanga in Cabo Delgado. Feasibility studies, concept engineering designs, and bid documents are likewise being prepared for other roads in all three provinces of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa to be implemented under follow-on operations. These road corridors were identified for similar reasons, including improved connectivity to the rich 49 The 259 km N380 begins in Sunate, situated on the N1 Highway, and ends in Mocimboa da Praia, a seaside port. AfDB is in parallel undertaking a feasibility study to upgrade 165 km of the same road. 50 The selected bridges and approximate lengths are Mirohote (45 m), Muaguamula (40 m), Muera-1 (55 m), Muera-2 (30 m), and Nango (35 m). 51 The N380 and the N381, along with the district headquarters on the corridors, faced the full brunt of the conflict with the rebels briefly occupying segments thereof. Page 8 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) fishing grounds of Lake Niassa52 with a view to eventual cross-border trade with landlocked Malawi, a link to a potential second border crossing with Tanzania, and improved connectivity with the cashew-producing districts of the north. 27. The construction of roads and bridges will adopt the design-and-build approach. Maintenance of the rehabilitated and upgraded roads will follow the output-based routine maintenance method53. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and local communities will participate in routine road maintenance activities in the post-construction phase.54 Community social infrastructure55 will be provided to the rural population along segments of roads proposed for rehabilitation and upgrading. Design features of roads and community social infrastructure will be informed by consultations with different population groups, including women to ensure that their priorities are incorporated. 28. Climate adaptation measures will be incorporated in the design and construction of roads and bridges. The feasibility study of roads and bridges will include a climate vulnerability risk assessment (CVRA). This will help identify critically vulnerable areas considering climate trends, evaluate the impact of climate change along selected roads and bridges, and recommend appropriate climate adaptation measures. The detailed engineering designs of the roads and bridges will factor in climate risks. Given the vulnerability of northern Mozambique to climate hazards, climate adaptation measures that address flooding and erosion will be introduced to enhance the resilience of roads and bridges. These measures will include raising flood-prone road segments above flood levels contingent upon the projected waterlogging impact on communities and lands upstream or lowering road levels in areas that can withstand partial cutdown of traffic, constructing concrete or flood-resistant pavement56 in identified flood-vulnerable road sections, improving embankment protection, strengthening construction designs that adapt to changing hydrological patterns and flood risks, and introducing bioengineering solutions such as grasses and tree planting to improve road slope protection. Furthermore, measures will include improving the capacity of drainage systems, reinforcing the bridge substructure and superstructure (including protecting the superstructure of bridges by reinforcing columns and preempting horizontal shifts on account of maximum sustained winds), and conducting riverbed cleaning in approaches to bridges and culverts as part of the maintenance activities. Adaptation measures for bridges will also include efforts to address higher temperatures and extreme heat, the increased frequency of extreme precipitation events, and storm surges. These will involve using paving materials that are more resistant to expansion in extreme heat conditions, reinforcing bridge piers, columns, and foundations, raising the bridge deck and treating metal components of the bridge to resist corrosion.57 More climate adaptation measures are provided in the project appraisal summary and Annex 2. Additional climate adaptation measures will be incorporated following recommendations of the CVRA and implemented in the detailed engineering designs and in the construction and maintenance phases. The project will implement these climate resilience measures, with most of these being new in the local context and in alignment with recently developed ANE road design manuals.58 29. The Safe System Approach59 for road safety will be integral to road design and implementation to minimize the severity of crashes and protect all road users. The Safe System Approach is premised on the road system being planned, 52 Also known as Lake Malawi. 53 This will be implemented as kilometer per month contracts spanning three years. Contracts payments will be made on equal monthly installments for specified services, as long as the quality of outputs complies with the technical specifications. 54 The project will learn from the Mozambique Economic Linkages for Diversification Project (P171664) to map, assess, and train SMEs on routine road maintenance activities. 55 These include markets, schools, heath centers, and agriculture produce storage facilities intended to maximize the benefits of the project. The provision of social infrastructure will be incorporated into the works contracts. 56 For example, ArmorFlex is a flexible, interlocking matrix of cellular concrete blocks of uniform size, shape and weight used for erosion control. 57 USAID, Bridges: Incorporating Climate Change Adaptation in Infrastructure Planning and Design, 2015. 58 ANE Standards and Specifications developed in 2019 and 2020. 59 The Safe System Approach has five pillars: safe roads and roadsides, safe road use, safe vehicles, safe speeds, and post-crash response. Page 9 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) designed, and operated to factor in the inevitable human lapses and preempt serious injury outcomes in most instances. To ensure the roadway is forgiving and has safer vulnerable road user (VRU) facilities, road safety audits and inspections will be undertaken at different stages of road works, while speed management60 and improved VRU facilities will be incorporated. Pedestrian sidewalks, cycle lanes, and street lighting will be provided along segments of the project roads in urban and community centers. This will include wider shoulders along road segments for nonmotorized traffic to improve road safety of VRUs. These improvements are expected to help achieve safe design for the project roads. 30. Component 2: Safe Access and Mobility Improvement (US$2.5 million equivalent). This component will include an integral approach to road safety. In particular, the component will focus on (a) the enhancement of the capacity of ANE on road safety engineering and certification on road safety audit; (b) the development of a pilot program on safe road infrastructure and road safety programs targeting youth,61 inclusive first responder training, awareness-raising and dissuasive measures, and improving sex-disaggregated crash data collection with a focus on the north; (c) the development of a ‘safer route to school’ pilot to improve access to schools in the north including the development of a pilot for nonmotorized transport for girls and boys to improve access to schools;62 and (d) the preparation of a study on improving rural transport services in the north, including addressing the recommendations of the study. 31. Component 3: Institutional Strengthening and Project Management (US$2.9 million equivalent). This component will finance incremental operating costs, including for office rent if needed, and institutional strengthening activities with a focus on northern Mozambique. It will cover (a) road asset management that will include information on hazards and climate related risk as well as road traffic data; (b) enhancement of climate resilience in the planning and management of road and bridge infrastructure, including the preparation of a climate and disaster risk management plan; (c) training of local contractors and community associations for participation in road works; (d) development of community resilience committees led by women to support emergency disaster preparedness and response; (e) skills development and livelihoods activities to provide opportunities for conflict-affected local labor in the road works with a focus on women; (f) strengthening of the capacity of the Road Training Center in Chimoio to improve women’s participation in road works; (g) technical assistance for project implementation including but not limited to procurement, FM, environmental and social (E&S) oversight, climate preparedness, GBV, axle control, financing of the roads network to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of FE management, participation of local private sector in road works including maintenance, and monitoring and evaluation (M&E); and (h) diagnostics to initiate landscape restoration, conservation, and climate resilience in the Quirimbas National Park63 which is detailed in Annex 3. 32. Component 4: Contingent Emergency Response (CERC) (US$0). This component will enable access to rapid financing by providing for a possible reallocation of uncommitted project funds in the event of a natural disaster, either by a formal declaration of emergency by the national or provincial Government or upon a formal request from the GoM. 60 These include road safety and traffic calming measures and other road safety-related facilities that include speed bumps (near community centers, schools, and markets), pedestrian crossings, road markings, and road signs. 61 This will include training modules on road safety in response to climate disasters. 62 A study conducted in rural Mozambique and Namibia to understand how the delivery of large numbers of bicycles affects communities revealed that girls whose families own a bicycle have a 32 percent higher probability of primary school enrollment than girls in rural areas whose families do not use a bicycle for chores. See Cunha, Clarisse. 2006. “Understanding the Community Impact: Bicycles in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Sustainable Transport 18: 24–5. 63 Quirimbas National Park is a protected area in Cabo Delgado of approximately 7,500 km2. The proposed activities will include an (a) update of the Management Plan of the Quirimbas National Park aligned with the Government’s plans to strengthen conservation, improve livelihoods, and enhance climate resilience; (b) enumeration of steps to restore degraded lands, marine ecosystems, habitat, and watersheds in the vicinity of the R762 and associated bridges; (c) listing of interventions to align forest conservation, improved livelihoods, flood protection, and climate resilience; and (d) identification of steps to strengthen the coastal ecosystem, including mangroves and coral reefs to protect against storm surges. Page 10 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) A CERC Manual and an Emergency Action Plan will have to be prepared separately and approved by the World Bank, which will constitute a disbursement condition for the CERC. If this component is activated, the project will be restructured to reallocate funds, and to revise the PDO, indicators, and implementation arrangements as needed. The CERC activities will be carried out in accordance with the CERC Manual and the Emergency Action Plan. C. Project Beneficiaries 33. The main project beneficiaries are the road users and local communities in the project area, particularly those living in Cabo Delgado Province. The project is expected to benefit 520,000 people, representing 23 percent of the population of Cabo Delgado,64 predominantly rural, living near the roads to be upgraded, of which 70 percent are youth and women. The road users and local communities are anticipated to benefit from (a) reduced travel time by 2.5 hours; (b) improved year-round access to social and economic facilities that include 54 schools, 14 health care centers (including emergency medical services), 22 markets, community centers, and Government administrative services in the six district headquarters; and (c) improved road safety facilities as outlined under Component 1 and awareness programs, particularly for VRUs as outlined in Component 2. The improved climate resilience of roads and bridges is envisioned to significantly minimize disruptions from weather disasters and ensure all-weather access to socioeconomic opportunities. Private sector SMEs will directly benefit during the construction period by supplying goods and services to contractors and project service providers. The road investments will offer local communities, particularly women, employment opportunities for at least 1,000 people employed during the road works and the post-construction maintenance phase, and skills development to at least 60 women on vocational skills. The institutional development activities, including technical assistance, will equip MOPHRH, ANE, and FE with improved capacity for the execution of their mandates in road transport infrastructure and service provision in northern Mozambique. An internship program with academic institutions is anticipated to help young graduates gain knowledge and experience for eventual recruitment into the transport sector. 34. The project is expected to benefit agriculture, fisheries, and tourism. Key economic activities, particularly in Cabo Delgado, include rural livelihoods and tourism. Fishing dominates the economic sector with the major fish being shrimp and tuna. Agriculture is dominated by subsistence farming, with the main cash crops being cashew nuts, sesame, and cotton. Improving connectivity is expected to enhance access to both agriculture and fish markets through reduced transportation cost and time. This will reduce post-harvest losses and improve the income of farmers and fishing communities. Further, tourism contributes to the economy of the province with the main attraction being the Quirimbas National Park, which is accessible through the R762 and N380 roads. Both roads will be improved under the project. The project is expected to provide a positive impact to tourism as the improved roads and support for the park, including ecosystem restoration, will provide better and faster access to tourist sites thereby potentially attracting larger number of visitors. See Annex 3 for more detail on greening the project. D. Results Chain 35. The Theory of Change for the project links the activities to be financed, the planned outputs, envisioned short- to medium-term outcomes, and anticipated long-term outcomes. This is presented in Figure 1. The project is expected to address the challenges of poor road connectivity in northern Mozambique, particularly in Cabo Delgado Province, and the vulnerability of communities to extreme weather events such as flooding resulting from cyclones. The project will upgrade and rehabilitate 92 km of secondary and tertiary roads to all-weather paved standard. It will construct five major 64 Population of rural communities in districts served by the proposed roads (Macomia, Muidumbe, Mueda, Metugi, and Quissanga). Page 11 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) bridges along the secondary road N380 and 1,500 m of Bailey bridges along tertiary roads in a climate-resilient manner. It will incorporate road safety improvements. The critical assumptions include (a) timely completion of quality technical studies and works; (b) timely deployment of experienced contractors and consultants on site; (c) availability of experienced non-governmental organizations to implement sexual exploitation and abuse/sexual harassment (SEA/SH) mitigation measures; (d) all-weather road access to result in the increased utilization of socioeconomic facilities; (e) strong commitment of MOPHRH, ANE, and FE and adequate capacity of the PIU to implement the road and bridge improvement works; (f) local community participation; and (g) safe and secure working environment. Figure 1. Theory of Change Activities/Inputs Outputs Outcomes Medium Term Outcomes Long Term Outcomes • Preparation of feasibility study, • Kilometers of roads improved concept designs, bid documents, • Project roads designed to three environmental & social Reduced travel time Star Rating or better using iRAP star documents rating methodology Improved road • Road upgrade and rehabilitation • Concrete and bailey bridges connectivity at the • Construction of concrete bridges improved • Installation of bailey bridges Increased involvement provincial and district • Roads and bridges with available • Monitoring consultancy services concept designs and bidding of women in the levels for roads and bridges documents transport sector • Establishment and participation • Small and medium enterprises and of small and medium local community associations enterprises and local community established and participating in Improved all-weather associations in routine routine maintenance activities access and mobility to Safer roads for maintenance • Employment generated under • Land acquisition and pedestrians and socio-economic facilities roads and bridges improvement cyclists Improved climate resettlement contracts (schools, hospitals and resilient road markets and • Study on improving rural opportunities (jobs and transport services and • Rural transport services designed connectivity and implemented Improved access to businesses) implementation of recommendations • Socio-economic facilities Socio-economic in the Northern • Safer route to school pilot connected by improved climate facilities • resilient road access Pilot program on safe road Provinces of Improved skills for infrastructure and road safety • First responder training implemented women and youth with programs Mozambique • Capacity building and • Road safety measures Institutional capacity implemented around schools improved access to accreditation on road safety strengthened vocational trainings audit • Road asset management system • Improvement of road asset improved management Enhanced response to Increased agricultural • Climate and disaster risk • Enhancement of climate management plan developed climate disasters and fishery productivity resilience • Small and medium enterprises and • Training of small and medium and tourism growth in local community associations enterprises and local community trained in road works the project area with associations in roadworks • Skills of women and youth Skills developed for reduced transportation • Development of community developed women and youth costs and time resilience committees • Women-led work and employment • Skills development and in the transport sector livelihood activities Contingent Emergency Response E. Rationale for Bank Involvement and Role of Partners 36. The project will complement the ongoing projects in the north designed to mitigate fragility and conflict risks in an integrated manner. The regional portfolio is envisioned to support recovery and resilience in the conflict-affected northern provinces as part of a broader effort to reduce poverty and enhance shared prosperity in a climate-resilient and Page 12 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) sustainable manner. There are five projects65 in the northern Mozambique portfolio, designed to (a) provide emergency support, including basic services and economic opportunities, for the internally displaced and host communities in Cabo Delgado; (b) build resilience through access to livelihood opportunities for rural populations; (c) upgrade urban infrastructure in selected cities in the north; (d) strengthen access to health, education, and social protection services across the North; and (e) support SMEs through fostering economic links to the extractives industry. The project is similarly focused on the three northern provinces and will complement the ongoing initiatives by linking communities in the north to basic services and economic opportunities through climate-resilient road connectivity while supporting skills, livelihood development, and road safety. 37. The project will augment ongoing IDA interventions in Mozambique’s transport sector. The ongoing three transport projects currently support the rehabilitation of rural and primary roads in Nampula and Zambezia Provinces,66 rehabilitation of the most critical and climate-vulnerable segments of the N167 north–south trunk road and improvement of urban transport services in the capital city of Maputo.68 In addition, Southern Africa Trade and Connectivity Project (SATCP, P164847), which supports the improvement in regional trade between Mozambique and Malawi includes strengthened transport infrastructure to facilitate market access. The World Bank therefore has significant experience working both in the conflict-affected north and in the country’s road sector, including its significant experience through interventions in other regions in the world, both on road works and conflict response. 38. There is synergy between IDA and the AfDB and EU co-financed road works. The World Bank will work closely with the AfDB and the EU, both of which co-finance the rehabilitation of other segments of the same road corridors planned under this project. The project is expected to benefit from four diagnostic initiatives of the AfDB that are particularly relevant to the World Bank’s engagement in the north. The AfDB is currently undertaking (a) Transport Master Plan for the North, (b) a capacity assessment of the ANE and FE with particular attention to business processes and human capacity requirements, (c) a study on the local construction industry in the north, and (d) a hot spot analysis on roads in the cities of Nampula and Beira. The World Bank will avail of the findings of this sector work to inform the proposed studies under Components 2 and 3. F. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design 39. The project design factors in country-specific lessons and international best practice in transport operations. This includes the experience of ongoing transport projects under implementation in Mozambique, that is, IFRDP (P158231), Safer Roads for Socio-Economic Integration Program (SRSEI, P174639), and SATCP (P164847). (a) Incorporate climate resilience in the design of roads and bridges. The project’s climate risk screening identified high risks of flooding and cyclones in certain road segments. The engineering designs of the identified roads and bridges will factor in climate and disaster risks to ensure strong adaptation measures 65 The five projects are: (a) Northern Crisis Recovery Project (P176157), approved April 27, 2021; (b) Investing in Inclusive Human Capital Development in Northern Mozambique Project (P175298), approved November 29, 2021; (c) Northern Mozambique Urban Development Project, approved December 17, 2021; (d) Northern Mozambique Rural Resilient Project (P174635), approved June 18, 2021; and (e) Mozambique Economic Linkages for Diversification Project (P171664), approved April 19, 2021. 66 IFRDP (P158231). 67 SRSEI (P174639). 68 Maputo Metropolitan Area Urban Mobility Project (P175322). Page 13 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) are put in place. This was not the case under IFRDP (P158231) and resulted in the washing away of bridges during cyclones. (b) Use local communities and SMEs. The project will involve local communities and SMEs in roads maintenance. This is intended to provide long-term employment opportunities and build ownership among communities. The project will include skills development of local labor, particularly women. (c) Build local capacity. The project will (i) establish a PIU based in the north staffed with local personnel to better monitor implementation and ensure ownership; (ii) involve construction companies from the north in road works to increase the capacity of local firms and lower the risk of desertion in the event of a deterioration in the security environment; (iii) include local communities and SMEs and build capacity of non-governmental organizations in the implementation framework; (iv) use the center of excellence established in MOPHRH to strengthen the capacity of the PIU staff in environmental and social standards, fiduciary, and M&E; (v) fast‐track procurement processing rather than rely on standard procurement methods; and (vi) explore opportunities to link with the Economic Linkages for Diversification Project (P171664) project on SMEs participation in basic road maintenance activities. (d) Enhance road safety. The project will promote the safe design, construction, and use of road infrastructure. This is considering the road safety challenges experienced across Mozambique. The project will include qualitative assessments to better understand the road traffic level to better design and implement road safety measures. (e) Preparation of follow-on operations. Given the typical slow start to implementation in infrastructure operations, resources should be set aside in each project to prepare follow-on projects. This includes the preparation of feasibility studies, bid documents, and environmental and social instruments in an ongoing project and allow procurement of works to commence during the preparation of the follow-on operation rather than during implementation. This is expected to result in significant time savings of at least one year. The project includes the preparation of a feasibility study, concept engineering design and bid documents for 890 km of roads across all three northern provinces. III. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements 40. Mozambique’s decentralization reforms and its road sector institutional framework helped define the implementation arrangements of the project. The project is premised on a field-based implementation mechanism supported by three entities at the center. MOPHRH will be responsible for the overall coordination of the project. The Minister of MOPHRH will chair a Project Steering Committee (PSC) that convenes key Government stakeholders both at the center and in the three provinces. The FE will be the implementing agency with responsibility for financial management. ANE will be responsible for project execution through a PIU based in Cabo Delgado. The PIU embedded in the ANE Provincial Delegation will be responsible for all aspects of project implementation, including procurement, through a mechanism of transition and increased responsibility in a phased manner. It will manage road works, consultant assignments, and procurement. The PIU will increasingly assume responsibility for the supervision of civil works, liaising with contractors and stakeholders, coordinating with subnational Government, and leading on environment and social risk management and M&E. Its technical capacity will be strengthened for that purpose. The PIU will report to ANE and liaise with the provincial authority through the ANE Provincial Delegation. A Project Implementation Manual (PIM), which Page 14 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) will be finalized within one month after effectiveness, will describe the roles and responsibilities of the various entities under the project. More detail is provided in Annex 1. B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements 41. The project will rely on the Geo-Enabling Initiative for Monitoring and Supervision (GEMS). Given the constrained access to the north in light of the low-intensity conflict, the use of the GEMS69 will avail open-source tools for the in-field collection of structured digital data. This approach will feed data into a unified M&E and management information systems, incorporating various data types such as results indicators, photographs, audio, and videos; time and date stamps; and global positioning system coordinates that allow for automated geo-mapping of the information. Using these tools systematically will allow the project to enhance the transparency and accuracy of M&E. Moreover, the geo- tagging of project sites will enable a digital platform, which can, if needed, include capabilities for remote supervision, real-time environment and social monitoring, and portfolio mapping. Additionally, in the cases where no statistical data or other official data sources for reporting are available, the PIU will use the GEMS to collect data from the field (for example, through specific surveys deployed on mobile devices) that can be integrated in an M&E platform.70 To implement the GEMS method, capacity-building training and technical sessions will be provided to the FE, ANE, and PIU. This will have two aims: create a consolidated data platform and build M&E capacity in the FE, ANE, and the PIU to use the GEMS throughout the project cycle.71 42. Third-party impact evaluation studies and beneficiary surveys will be undertaken. A dedicated impact evaluation will be developed. During the initial phase of the project, the PIU will work with the World Bank to (a) identify and prioritize impact evaluation opportunities, (b) develop research questions in key areas and an accompanying counterfactual implementation structure, (c) develop impact evaluation data collection strategies, and (d) perform data analysis to help scale up activities. The PIU will also collect relevant project data, with the support of monitoring consultant(s) during the feasibility study, design, and rehabilitation/upgrading phases. Quarterly, annual, and midterm implementation monitoring reports will be prepared. These reports will cover all aspects of project implementation including design, construction, E&S standards, GBV, SEA/SH, and technical assistance services. C. Sustainability 43. The project is premised on sustainability. It entails the preparation of a climate and disaster risk management plan. It includes the development of an output-based maintenance strategy for routine maintenance of roads in the north. It involves institutional reforms related to the rehabilitation and routine maintenance prioritization programs. It includes local community associations (LCAs) and SMEs in project implementation by introducing good practices from other countries in the sub-Saharan region while considering the context of fragility and conflict. It entails technical assistance to support the establishment and training of LCAs of roadside dwellers in labor-intensive road maintenance. This approach has been very successful in Rwanda and could be an opportunity for South-South cooperation through experience and knowledge sharing. However, the success of any sustainable road maintenance regime is linked to the availability of funding. Financial sustainability in the case of Mozambique remains a big challenge. The FE is constrained financially and 69 https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/fragilityconflictviolence/brief/geo-enabling-initiative-for-monitoring-and-supervision-gems. 70 In the Monitoring and Evaluation Plan section, a detailed description is provided on the indicators that could benefit from the use of the GEMS. 71 The interactive training covers (a) data platform creation and administration, (b) digital questionnaire design and deployment, (c) in-field project data collection, (d) geo-mapping and analysis of collected data within the application, (e) data export and spatial/Excel analysis, and (f) creation of a customized data architecture. Page 15 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) cannot meet its maintenance budget. This was worsened by the integration of fuel levy into the excise tax in 2022 which has resulted in lower-than-anticipated funds for road maintenance, consequently affecting sectoral investments. To address these deficits, Mozambique must increase the efficiency of its use of available funds in terms of prioritization programs, construction methods, and contracting modalities and increase and diversify its revenue sources. The project will seek opportunities to support the Government’s agenda on development of a management information system for monitoring fuel levy collection and allocation. IV. PROJECT APPRAISAL SUMMARY A. Technical, Economic and Financial Analyses 44. Technical analysis. The roads selected for upgrading are at present gravel roads, except for the 25 km N380 Xitaxi– Muagamula, which is a paved road with a Double Bituminous Surface Treatment (DBST) pavement in a very poor condition and requiring urgent rehabilitation. The gravel roads are narrow, in unsatisfactory condition, and often not motorable after extensive rains. Practical options for the technical enhancement of road design and safety were explored. These included widening of the carriageways, adequate shoulder widths, provision of sidewalks and cycle paths in urban areas, and accommodation of nonmotorized traffic. The two alternative pavement designs that were evaluated for overall net benefits were DBST and Hot Mix Asphalt concrete (HMA)72. Based on the economic analysis, the optimal design for all the roads was to upgrade them with DBST pavements. However, for technical and other reasons, it was decided to upgrade the unsealed gravel roads to DBST standards and the paved road section to Asphalt Concrete (AC) standard. To mitigate the climate change risks, due consideration will be given in the final detailed designs to using raised and better-reinforced embankments where appropriate, increased number of drainage structures, and use of materials such as Gilsonite modified surface treatment to mitigate the impact of floods and protect the pavement from effects of rapid oxidation of the bitumen due to increased exposure to high temperatures and ultraviolet light. For the long-term safety and resilience of bridges, the project will likewise consider climate-resilient bridge designs that entail the use of high-strength and durable materials, flexible and adaptive structures, sustainable construction practices, and the inclusion of shoulder ways for pedestrians and nonmotorized vehicles. 45. Economic analysis. The World Bank’s HDM-4 model73 was used to simulate the current and projected traffic on the selected roads for both ‘with-project’ and ‘without-project’ settings over the design life of the project, that is, 20 years after construction. This was to assess pavement behavior, vehicle operating costs, travel costs, and other costs to determine the overall net present value (NPV), economic internal rate of return (EIRR), and benefit/cost (B/C) ratio for the entire project comprising the three roads with the selected pavement design for each road. The ‘without-project’ alternative consisted of maintaining the existing roads with minimal routine interventions but with periodic re-gravelling of the unpaved road sections and a resurfacing of the paved road in 10 years. The ‘with-project’ investments entailed upgrading the two unpaved sections to a paved standard with a DBST pavement and upgrading the paved road section with an AC pavement followed by normal routine and periodic maintenance of the upgraded paved roads. The economic evaluation included the benefits arising from a net reduction in the CO2 emissions (valued at the lower of the recommended shadow prices), as well as the net benefits arising from road safety improvement interventions computed with the Road Safety Screening and Appraisal Tool (RSSAT) model, as described below. 72 HMA is simply referred to asphalt concrete (AC). 73 Highway Development and Management Model Four, Version 2.0 (HDM-4). Available from TRL, UK. Page 16 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) 46. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The HDM-4 model calculates the quantity of the GHGs emitted during the analysis period under the ‘with’ and ‘without’ project scenarios. The results indicate that despite the addition of generated traffic (30 percent) due to the developmental impact of the improved roads, there is a net reduction in some of the GHG emissions. The net reduction of CO2 emissions over the design life of the pavements is estimated at 4,670 tons. When valued at the recommended shadow price of US$43.7 or US$87.4 (low and high estimates)74 per ton, increasing at the rate of 2.25 percent per year, the overall net benefit of the total reduction over the design life of the project roads amounts to US$0.12 million (low estimate) and US$0.24 million (high estimate), when discounted at the rate of 6 percent per year— a modest but positive increase in the NPV. 47. Road safety. The project used the RSSAT to calculate the Project Safety Impact (PSI)75 and the economic benefits associated with improved road safety. The analysis was conducted based on the preliminary information provided by ANE (the detailed design will be developed under the design-and-build construction contract). With appropriate traffic calming and road safety improvement interventions, the PSI due to improved roadways is estimated to be 0.82, with an economic benefit of US$16.208 million over 20 years discounted at 6 percent per year. The greatest safety gains are expected to come from (a) speed management, with an average operating speed of 50 kph in urban areas and 65 kph in rural areas; (b) dedicated pedestrian walkways; (c) raised pedestrian crossings; (d) marked facilities for bicyclists and motorcyclists; and (e) the installation of roundabouts at busy junctions. Hence, it is crucial that the upgrading of the project roads be subjected to a detailed Road Safety Audit and further RSSAT assessments during implementation to ensure that the targeted PSI of 0.82 is achieved. 48. Economic evaluation results. Table 1 gives a summary of the results of the economic evaluation conducted with the HDM-4 model incorporating the valuation of the net reduction in CO2 emissions and the net benefits of the road safety interventions calculated with the RSSAT model. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out by looking at the impact of (a) no road safety interventions, (b) an increase of 20 percent in construction costs, (c) a 20 percent reduction in traffic growth rates, (d) a 20 percent increase in construction costs plus 20 percent decrease in traffic growth rates, and (e) a simultaneous increase in construction costs and reduction in traffic growth rates by 20 percent and without road safety improvement benefits. Table 1. Economic Evaluation of the Project and Sensitivity Analysis Parameter NPV @ 6% EIRR (%) B/C Ratio Base case with optimal pavement designsa 113.65 25.3 3.2 Without road safety interventions 97.44 18.5 2.8 20% increase in construction costs 102.74 20.3 2.6 20% decrease in traffic growth rates 91.17 23.0 2.7 20% increase in construction costs plus 20% decrease in traffic growth rates 80.27 18.3 2.3 20% increase in construction costs plus 20% decrease in traffic growth rates and without 64.07 13.9 2.0 Road Safety improvement benefits Note: a. Includes net CO2 reduction and road safety benefits. 49. The results confirm that the economic justification of the project is robust. From Table 1, it is seen that for the project investments, the overall NPV at the 6 percent desirable social discount rate is US$113.65 million with an EIRR of 25.3 percent and a B/C ratio of 3.2. The results of the sensitivity analysis show that in all five scenarios, the NPV at 6 74 Guidance Note on Shadow Price of Carbon in Economic Analysis, World Bank, November 12, 2017. 75 The ratio of road traffic fatalities with project to without project. Page 17 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) percent is positive and the B/C ratio is more than 1.0, and in the worst-case scenario, the EIRR is 13.9 percent and NPV is US$64.07 million. 50. Financial analysis. Private capital is not initially anticipated in the planned road intervention in the north given the ongoing albeit low-intensity conflict situation in Cabo Delgado Province. Initial consultations suggest that the private sector has a very low appetite to invest given the high security risks and low marginal returns in a conflict environment. As a result, the project is financed entirely as a public sector project. 51. Climate adaptation. The project is designed to adapt to the major risk of climate change in northern Mozambique and the associated flooding. The design of the roads and bridges will involve vulnerability risk screening followed by hydrological and vulnerability risk assessment during the detailed design phase. Climate resilience measures that may be incorporated into the design and construction of roads and bridges include (a) raising the road embankment in flood- vulnerable locations in those instances where it would not result in waterlogging upstream; (b) augmenting bridges and other road structures to adapt to the changing hydrology and projected flooding intensity in the area; (c) overlaying vulnerable road sections with resilient pavement materials (for example, cement concrete and lime stabilization, Gilsonite modified surface treatment, and Armorflex) to withstand heavy rains; (d) adopting climate-resilient bridge designs such as high-strength and durable materials and flexible and adaptive structure (one option to avoid the bridge superstructure being ripped off and carried away by the flood waters is to reinforce the columns to steady the superstructure); (e) improving the drainage system with additional larger culverts, appropriate inlet-outlet of culverts, and side ditches; and (f) introducing bioengineering solutions as much as possible for slope protection. The technical design will ensure that the identified measures reduce transportation costs and flooding risks and achieve the target of ensuring durable access to the main road network, markets, and services for the rural population. B. Fiduciary 52. Financial Management (FM). A Financial Management Assessment of the FE was undertaken in accordance with the Directives and Policy for Investment Project Financing (IPF) and the Bank Guidance - Financial Management Manual in World Bank IPF Operations issued on September 7, 2021. The assessment covered aspects of budgeting, staffing, accounting system, reporting, internal controls, and internal and external audits. It revealed that acceptable FM arrangements exist at the FE, established over time with the implementation of World Bank-financed projects. The recent review of FM arrangements of related ongoing operations (IFRDP-P158231, SRSEI-P174639, and SATCP-P164847) indicated that the FE maintains adequate FM arrangements. The auditor provided an unqualified opinion on the FE financial statements for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2022, which included financial information of World Bank- financed projects managed by this agency. The auditors did not raise major FM issues in their Management Letter. The agency submits acceptable unaudited interim financial reports (IFRs). No major issues were raised in the latest audit reports. The overall FM was assessed to be adequate with substantial residual risk due to the complexity of the project that will finance road infrastructure in a low-intensity conflict zone, which may lead to procurement irregularities and budget overruns. 53. FM arrangements. The following FM arrangements have been agreed upon. The project funds, expenditure, and resources will be accounted for using an automated accounting package. The funds from IDA will be report-based disbursements through interim financial reports (IFRs). The following methods will be available for the project: (a) reimbursement, (b) advances, (c) direct payments, and (d) special commitments. A Designated Account (DA) denominated in US dollars will be opened at the Bank of Mozambique and managed by the FE. The agency will prepare quarterly IFRs and provide such reports to the World Bank within 45 days of the end of each calendar quarter. The project funds and Page 18 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) expenditure will be disclosed as a separate note in the FE annual financial statements instead of it issuing a separate set of project financial statements. The FE financial statements will be prepared in accordance with the modified cash basis of accounting. The audit of the project transactions shall therefore form part of the FE annual audit process by the appointed external auditor. The FE will submit to the World Bank a copy of the audited financial statements within six months after the year-end. 54. Procurement implementation arrangements. The PIU, which is yet to be established, will be based in Cabo Delgado and housed at the ANE Provincial Delegation. The activities of the project will be implemented in a phased manner until the final setting of the PIU at the provincial level is completed. While the provincial PIU is being established, ANE at the central level, supported by the PIU in Maputo, will handle all complex procurement for the project given the severe capacity constraints and the paucity of qualified expertise on the ground in Cabo Delgado. However, immediate steps will be taken to build procurement capacity in the local PIU. This will include the immediate recruitment of the procurement and contract management specialist to help prepare the ground for future procurement actions for supplemental funds to be made available for additional road works, including the engineering designs and bid documents to be prepared under the project. The PIU in Cabo Delgado, once established, will be responsible from the start for the procurement of works, goods, and services below certain thresholds as defined in the Project Procurement Strategy for Development (PPSD). The PIU will assume increased procurement responsibility in a phased manner over time. Meanwhile, immediate steps are being taken by ANE to establish this unit such as the recruitment of the PIU staff including procurement specialist and other personnel. The Procurement Manual will provide details of the implementation arrangements including the flow of coordination and approval mechanisms. For more information on the Procurement Capacity Assessment, Procurement Procedures, the PPSD, and the Procurement Plan, see Annex 1. The overall risk for procurement is high due to the current capacity challenges at ANE at the central level related to weak contract management, proposed use of a nascent PIU in the north, and high GBV/SEA/SH project classification. C. Legal Operational Policies @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padlegalpolicy#doctemplate Legal Operational Policies Triggered? Projects on International Waterways OP 7.50 No Projects in Disputed Area OP 7.60 No D. Environmental and Social 55. The project’s overall E&S risk is rated Substantial. Public consultations were undertaken in January and February 2024. The project will finance small- to medium-scale works in remote areas to rehabilitate or upgrade existing secondary and tertiary road segments and bridges within the prevailing rights-of-way. The adverse E&S risks and impacts that could be generated by the project activities are at most likely to be substantial and possible to mitigate with readily available and reliable measures. The FE and ANE have experience in implementing World Bank-financed projects. They are building capacity on implementation of the Environmental and Social Framework (ESF) and are committed to reinforce their E&S team from an early stage of the project to ensure implementation in a manner consistent with the ESF requirements. Eight out of the ten Environmental and Social Standards (ESS) are relevant to the project: (a) ESS1 Assessment and Management of Environmental and Social Risks and Impacts; (b) ESS2 Labor and Working Conditions; (c) ESS3 Resource Efficiency and Page 19 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) Pollution Prevention and Management; (d) ESS4 Community Health and Safety; (e) ESS5 Land Acquisition, Restrictions on Land Use and Involuntary Resettlement; (f) ESS6 Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Management of Living Natural Resources; (g) ESS8 Cultural Heritage; and (h) ESS10 Stakeholder Engagement and Information Disclosure. While the project is taking place in locations affected by conflict and insecurity, it is not expected that the adverse E&S impacts of the project, or the associated mitigation measures, will exacerbate the conflict or lead to additional risks to human security. However, as the contractors will work in conflict-affected areas and engage with internally displaced persons returning to their original villages, project workers and IDP beneficiaries may be exposed to security risk. A security risk assessment/management plan has been prepared and disclosed. The project’s potential adverse E&S risks and impacts are mainly associated with the small- to medium-scale civil works planned under Component 1, including soil and water resources pollution, dust and noise emissions, generation of hazardous and nonhazardous waste, occupational and community health and safety risks, physical and economic resettlement along a narrow (10 m strip) alongside the edge of the selected roads on either side, labor influx and the associated SEA/SH risks, and the security situation in Cabo Delgado Province. 56. These risks and impacts will primarily be site specific,76 temporary, reversible, and manageable through cost- effective mitigation measures. Though some civil works will occur within the boundaries of the Quirimbas National Park,77 such interventions are not expected to result in significant adverse impacts on biodiversity as they will be limited to the minimum necessary while potentially affecting activities, such as the operation of auxiliary infrastructure,78 will be avoided through an exclusion list of activities. Major realignments are not anticipated, but some road widening is required to fit the new standard cross-section of ANE and accommodate wider road shoulders. The project is expected to have a positive social impact as it will enhance connectivity that will benefit the livelihoods of local communities. The adverse social risks and impacts of the project are similarly associated with the works planned under Component 1 and include (a) physical and economic displacement due to land acquisition and involuntary resettlement required as a result of a 10 m corridor of impact alongside the roads; (b) high risks of SEA/SH mostly associated with the planned civil works and possibly indirect risks with the influx of labor, including community health and safety, that may exacerbate existing GBV risks; (c) risks related to the management of labor; (d) challenges in ensuring genuine stakeholder engagement and participation of vulnerable and disadvantaged groups in decision-making processes at the subproject level; and (e) potential risk of inequitable distribution of project benefits among the project beneficiaries. 57. The risk of SEA/SH is rated High. The project will build on existing investments for implementing SEA/SH risk mitigation measures under other World Bank-funded transport sector projects in Mozambique. An SEA/SH Action Plan, prepared under the ESMF, outlines prevention and mitigation measures to address GBV/SEA/SH risks and impacts, namely (a) implementation of codes of conduct for project actors, including contractors and project management unit personnel; (b) a survivor-centered accountability and response framework that outlines how SEA/SH complaints will be managed, along with SEA/SH-sensitive grievance mechanisms to include a survivor response protocol, and mapping and contracting where needed of GBV service providers, including for child survivors; (c) a training and sensitization plan on SEA/SH for project personnel and communities; (d) consultations at the community level to address SEA/SH risks for women and girls; and (e) a third-party monitoring agent to verify the implementation of SEA/SH risk mitigation measures. The project will also ensure that a GBV specialist is recruited by the PIU to supervise implementation of these various measures and that an appropriate M&E plan is established to track their implementation. All contractor bidding documents, and procurement processes will incorporate these risk mitigation measures. Worksites will have appropriate signage and sex-segregated 76 That is, focusing on the areas with civil works. 77 For the upgrading of a 15 km section of R762 Muepane–Quissanga and the rehabilitation of two existing concrete bridges. 78 Workers’ campsites, borrow pits, quarries, concrete/bitumen plants, and so on. Page 20 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) facilities to address SEA/SH risk. Concerning SEA/SH complaint management, the project will build upon existing client efforts from the IFRDP to develop a more comprehensive digital grievance mechanism that allows for the systematized intake, tracking, and resolution of project-related complaints, including SEA/SH. The project will also benefit from other efforts under IFRDP and across the Mozambique portfolio to strengthen local structures and civil society in the provision of GBV services and support on implementation of SEA/SH risk mitigation measures, including consolidation of SEA/SH technical support across other operations in northern Mozambique. 58. A Grievance Redress Mechanism (GRM) will be established, publicized, maintained, and operated under the project. The GRM will be proportionate to the potential risks and impacts of the project and will be made accessible and inclusive, to collect, report and handle grievances, especially GBV/SEA/SH cases. It will operate and be accessible using multiple channels79 to receive and register complaints in a safe and confidential manner. The GRM will facilitate resolution of concerns and grievances in relation to the project, promptly and effectively, in a transparent manner that is culturally appropriate. This mechanism will be readily accessible to all project-affected parties, at no cost and without retribution, including concerns and grievances filed anonymously. The project will also include a mechanism for communities and project workers to report SEA/SH incidents in a confidential manner and have specific procedures and protocols that follow a survivor centered approach to manage GBV/SEA/SH grievances. The mechanism procedures will not prevent access to judicial or administrative remedies. ANE will inform the project-affected parties about the grievance redress process during the community engagement activities. The procurement documents and contracts for civil works monitoring consultancy firms, contractors and sub-contractors will include provision for such mechanisms and the adequate communication thereof to project workers. Similar provision will be made to receive, record and process SEA/SH complaints related to the resettlement process for project affected persons, including the referral of survivors to GBV services providers in a safe and confidential manner. 59. To ensure adequate management of the project impacts, ANE prepared a near final Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) to facilitate meaningful stakeholder engagement and to inform the world bank of how the E&S risks identified will be managed. This advanced draft ESMF was disclosed in-country on the ANE website80 and on the World Bank website on March 14, 2024, and March 12, 2024, respectively. ANE has also prepared advanced draft Labor Management Procedures (LMP), Social Assessment (SA), and SEA/SH Action Plan, which outlined the aforementioned mitigation measures, and draft updated Security Risk Assessment (SRA)/Security Management Plan (SMP) based on an ongoing World Bank-financed project in the northern region, along with an Environmental and Social Commitment Plan (ESCP) and a Stakeholder Engagement Plan (SEP). These instruments will be finalized and disclosed no later than one month after grant effectiveness. To assess the potential contextual security risks that can affect project activities in Cabo Delgado, ANE will update the SRA prepared by United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) for the Northern Crisis Recovery Project - Additional Financing (P178070), which will be the basis for the SMP under the project. 60. ANE will also prepare, consult, and disclose site-specific instruments before the commencement of civil works. This will include an ESIA/ ESMP and RAPs covering all corridor sections proposed for rehabilitation works. For each site, a Contractor ESMP (C-ESMP) will also cover the management of labor including a labor-specific GRM, a site-specific SEP including a project GRM sensitive to SEA/SH covering communities SEA/SH Action Plan, social assessment, management of waste and hazardous materials, chance find procedures, and traffic and road safety plan. Contractors will be required 79 Including through free hotline, free short messaging services, grievance boxes (community and workplace based) and community focal points, among others, 80 https://ane.gov.mz/documents/ Page 21 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) to have appropriate staff in place to implement C-ESMPs and any resettlement-related instruments required during implementation. Any social assessments to be undertaken will also evaluate project-related GBV and SEA/SH risks, and C- ESMPs will likewise include relevant SEA/SH risk mitigation measures. E. Climate and Disaster Risk Screening, Paris Alignment and Climate Co-Benefits 61. Climate and disaster risk screening. The project undertook an in-depth climate and disaster risk screening. This identified high risks of extreme precipitation and flooding, cyclones, and wildfires and moderate risks of extreme temperatures for Cabo Delgado. The project prioritized the roads, bridges, and drainage infrastructure for rehabilitation based on an assessment of how climate and disaster risk affect specific road and bridge segments, disrupts mobility, and affects the socioeconomic infrastructure. The detailed engineering design will factor in these climate and disaster risks. The project’s emergency protocol will likewise help address disaster risk. 62. Paris Alignment. The project is aligned with the Paris Agreement on both climate mitigation and adaptation. The assessment of climate mitigation risks concluded that all activities were universally aligned, except for road rehabilitation activities in Subcomponent 1.1.An assessment of this activity concluded that the road rehabilitation activities were low risk because they (a) will take place on secondary roads that serve an essential access function, including providing connectivity to rural areas; (b) will not contribute to the urban sprawl; and (c) cannot be substituted with lower emission transport modes such as railways or inland waterways. The assessment of climate adaptation risks found that the project area is highly vulnerable to a range of climate risks identified during project preparation. The activities in each component have been explicitly designed to address these climate hazards and risks. Component 1 will upgrade existing unsealed gravel roads and expand drainage capacity to cope with the projected heavy rainfall. Raised and better enforced embarkments in most instances will allow the roads to better adapt to flooding and rising sea levels. Bridges will include flexible and adaptive structures made of high-strength and durable materials to avoid the collapse of the superstructure. Component 2 will improve the capacity of national agencies and provide education and training to effectively respond to emergency events. Component 3 will update design standards and develop emergency protocols and evacuation procedures to respond to extreme events. For more information, see annex 3. F. Gender 63. Gender actions. The project will seek to close gender gaps in mobility and in road sector employment. In terms of mobility, the project will promote safe access to schools for girls through the design of roads that follow GBV prevention environmental design criteria and by piloting activities that can promote their mobility through the provision of bicycles or configuration of safe footpaths to school buses. The project will learn from the experience of the ongoing World Bank- financed Harnessing the Demographic Dividend Project (P166100) to define the target population and implementation arrangements. For instance, it may include the provision of bicycles for girls transitioning from primary to secondary schools, as an incentive for enrollment. The provision of bikes will be accompanied by support services, including teaching how to use a bike (as necessary), community awareness, sensitization on the purpose of the bikes, and maintenance training.81 The project will support the collection of sex-disaggregated data by mode for the different fatalities and accidents. It will finance the creation of women-led committees for emergency preparedness and response in relation to natural disasters. In terms of employment, the project will identify specific activities for improving the participation of women in the road sector in either medium- or high-level jobs, including jobs in community-based maintenance and 81World Bank. 2020. Harnessing the Demographic Dividend (P166100). https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/676801581994864496/pdf/Mozambique-Harnessing-the-Demographic-Dividend-Project.pdf Page 22 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) mechanics, which are dominated by men. Activities will include free training and certification of women in road rehabilitation and maintenance by enhancing the capacity of the Road Training center in Chimoio82 and providing it with recommendations supported by analytical work to attract and retain women students. Training and certifying women in road rehabilitation, maintenance, and mechanics will open future job opportunities but will also contribute to road safety by providing maintenance to vehicles and ensuring safety standards and resilience by keeping roads in good condition. G. Citizen Engagement 64. Citizen engagement. The project will facilitate continuous engagement with stakeholders and beneficiaries during implementation. The framework for citizen engagement will include (a) access to project information on the ANE website; (b) information campaigns to raise awareness about the project among stakeholders, including youth, women, and people with disabilities; (c) consultations with stakeholders; (d) a feedback mechanism to process complaints, concerns, and questions from stakeholders; and (e) annual specific third-party monitoring of project activities to ensure continued feedback on project activities. Consultations with stakeholders have already begun both in Maputo and in the three northern provinces. V. GRIEVANCE REDRESS SERVICES 65. Grievance redress. Communities and individuals who believe that they are adversely affected by a project supported by the World Bank may submit complaints to existing project-level grievance mechanisms or the Bank’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS). The GRS ensures that complaints received are promptly reviewed in order to address project-related concerns. Project affected communities and individuals may submit their complaint to the Bank’s independent Accountability Mechanism (AM). The AM houses the Inspection Panel, which determines whether harm occurred, or could occur, as a result of Bank non-compliance with its policies and procedures, and the Dispute Resolution Service, which provides communities and borrowers with the opportunity to address complaints through dispute resolution. Complaints may be submitted to the AM at any time after concerns have been brought directly to the attention of Bank Management and after Management has been given an opportunity to respond. For information on how to submit complaints to the Bank’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS), visit http://www.worldbank.org/GRS. For information on how to submit complaints to the Bank’s Accountability Mechanism, visit https://accountability.worldbank.org. VI. KEY RISKS 66. The overall project risk is rated Substantial across the categories of political and governance, sector strategies and policies, institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability, fiduciary, and environment and social. The security context in northern Mozambique is another substantial risk. Mitigation measures have been identified across these risk categories as explained below. (a) Political and Governance Risk is rated Substantial. While the political environment is stable, insufficient progress with decentralization may threaten this. Mozambique also faces longstanding governance challenges, exacerbated by weaknesses in institutional capacity. Elections will be held in 2024. The project 82 The Road Training Center in Chimoio is the only one in the region that provides theoretical and on-the-job training and a valid certification. Page 23 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) will endeavor to mitigate this through measures to improve transparency and accountability, including through competitive and transparent procurement, annual financial audits, and citizen engagement. (b) Sector Strategies and Policies risks are rated Substantial. The policy framework needs to address the gaps in road sector financing. Road sector policy reforms related to the availability of road sector financing and the sustainability of resources remain an issue in the sector. The Government lacks a functional road sector strategy that could drive the efficiency of road transport. The World Bank will support the Government’s efforts to better ensure sustainable road finance, support preparation of a Road Maintenance Strategy, and help update the road sector strategy 2020–2024 through policy dialogue and technical assistance under SRSEI (P174639). (c) Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability risks are rated Substantial. There is limited in- country capacity for road safety, management of road sector financing, road asset preservation, climate resilience, and implementation of environmental and social standards. The project will support a dedicated PIU within ANE and will help build the capacity of the PIU. A competitive bidding process and opportunities to engage in long-term supervision contracts are anticipated to attract experienced contractors. The lack of a road sector strategy has resulted in challenges of maintenance on road investments, thereby resulting in the deterioration of the road network. This raises a concern of sustainability of the roads planned to be upgraded and rehabilitated under the project beyond the closing date. Mitigation measures include update of the road sector strategy in coordination with the transport sector donors, including supporting the FE in reforms related to financial sustainability in revenue generation and utilization. (d) Fiduciary Risk is rated Substantial. While the overall financial management was assessed to be adequate, there remains a substantial residual risk on account of the complexity of the project that will finance road infrastructure in a conflict impacted area with potential of procurement irregularity and budget overruns. Gaps have also been identified in terms of staffing, record keeping and contract management. The World Bank will conduct regular supervision to ensure that the implementing agencies maintain adequate internal controls. A procurement specialist has been hired under the IFRDP (P158231) to enhance procurement capacity and improve the weak record keeping and contract management. Procurement risk mitigation measures are (i) prioritize adopting the risk mitigation measures agreed under the project; (ii) build the capacity of the PIU which will be established from scratch and provide them with fiduciary training as well as fraud and corruption awareness training; and (iii) closely monitor the internal controls. (e) Environment and Social Risk is rated Substantial. As the contractors will work in conflict-impacted areas and engage with IDPs returning to their original villages, some degree of social conflict, harm and human security is also anticipated. The project will build on lessons learnt on SEA/SH implemented by ANE under the IFRDP (P158231) and SRSEI (P174639) to develop a comprehensive digital grievance mechanism that will allow for the systematized intake, tracking, and resolution of project-related complaints. Environmental and social risks will be addressed through various instruments including ESMF, site-specific ESIA/ESMP, C-ESMPs, RAP and SEP. (f) Other risks related to the security context are rated Substantial. There have been several security incidents in the recent months in Cabo Delgado province. These include the N381 road to be upgraded under the project and along the coast of the Quirimbas National Park. The World Bank will work closely with the UN agencies in Cabo Delgado to coordinate project implementation and minimize the risks associated with sudden occurrence of insurgency in the area. Threat scenarios have been enumerated in the SMP for World Bank-financed projects in the north, and appropriate contingency measures will be defined under the project once the PIU is on board. Page 24 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) VII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padannexresultframework#doctemplate PDO Indicators by PDO Outcomes Baseline Closing Period Improved climate resilience People with improved access to climate-resilient road transport infrastructure (Number) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 0 520000 ➢Women and youth with improved access to climate-resilient road transport infrastructure (Percentage) 0 70 Improved connectivity Reduction in travel time along project rehabilitated and upgraded roads (Hours) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 0 2.5 Intermediate Indicators by Components Baseline Closing Period Component 1: Climate Resilient Road Connectivity Improvement Roads rehabilitated and upgraded with climate resilience measures (Kilometers) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 0 92 Concrete bridges constructed with climate resilient features (Number) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 0 5 Modular bridges installed across the tertiary road network with climate resilient features (Meter(m)) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 0 1500 Employment generated under roads and bridges rehabilitation and upgrading contracts (Number) Page 25 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 0 1250 ➢Share of women and youth in employment under roads and bridges rehabilitation and upgrading works contracts (Percentage) 0 45 Employment generated from road maintenance works contracts (Number) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 0 850 ➢Share of women and youth in employment under maintenance contracts (Percentage) 0 45 Local community associations (LCAs) established and participating in road maintenance activities. (Number) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 0 16 Roads with available concept designs and bidding documents (Kilometers) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 0 890 Dedicated roadside walkways and cycle lanes for pedestrian & cyclist safety (Kilometers) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 0 TBD Component 2: Safe Access and Mobility Improvement First responder training conducted along project roads (Number) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 0 5 Citizen engagement surveys conducted in project area of influence (Number) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 0 3 ➢Share of beneficiaries reporting satisfaction with project interventions (Percentage) 0 80 Economic and social facilities connected by improved climate resilient road access (Number) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 0 90 ➢Healthcare centers and hospitals (Number) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 0 14 Page 26 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) ➢Markets (Number) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 0 22 ➢Schools (Number) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 0 54 Travel time for girls accessing secondary schools through the use of project provided bicycles (Minutes) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 TBD TBD Component 3: Institutional Strengthening and Project Management Climate and disaster risk management plan developed (Yes/No) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 No Yes Road asset management system improved (Yes/No) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 No Yes Women trained and certified in vocational skills including concrete and masonry, road maintenance, plumbing, and auto mechanics, etc. (Number) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 0 60 Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and local community associations (LCAs) trained in road works (Number) Jul/2024 Jun/2030 0 22 Component 4: Contingent Emergency Response Page 27 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: PDO Indicators by PDO Outcomes Improve connectivity Reduction in travel time along project rehabilitated and upgraded roads (Hours) Description The average vehicle travel time from start to the end of the project road measured in hours. Frequency Annual Data source Project progress reports Methodology for Data Review of monitoring consultants progress reports Collection Responsibility for Data ANE Collection Improve climate resilience People with improved access to climate-resilient road transport infrastructure (Number) Description people in the project area who are expected to have direct access to improved climate resilient and safe road connectivity Frequency Annual Data source Project progress reports Methodology for Data Population statistical data in the project area of influence Collection Responsibility for Data ANE Collection Women and youth with access to climate-resilient and safe road transport infrastructure (Percentage) Share of women and youth population in the project area who are expected to have direct access to improved climate Description resilient and safe road connectivity Frequency Annual Data source Project progress reports Methodology for Data Population statistical data in the project area of influence Collection Responsibility for Data ANE Collection Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Component 1: Climate Resilient Road Connectivity Improvement Roads rehabilitated and upgraded with climate resilience features (Kilometers) Description Kilometers of all classified roads rehabilitated or upgraded under the project with climate resilient measures. Frequency Annual Data source ANE, monitoring consultants’ reports Methodology for Data Collection Project progress reports Responsibility for Data Collection ANE Concrete bridges constructed with climate resilient features (Number) Description These are number of bridges constructed or rehabilitated with climate features under the project Frequency Semi-annual Data source ANE, monitoring consultants’ reports Methodology for Data Collection Project progress reports Responsibility for Data Collection ANE Modular bridges installed across the tertiary road network with climate resilient features (Meter(m)) Bailey bridges, supplied, installed, and opened to traffic across the tertiary road network in all three northern Description provinces Frequency Annual Data source ANE, monitoring consultants’ reports Page 28 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) Methodology for Data Collection Project progress reports Responsibility for Data Collection ANE Employment generated under roads and bridges rehabilitation and upgrading contracts (Number) Description Number of workers engaged by contractors for the rehabilitation and upgrading works. Frequency Annual Data source ANE, monitoring consultants’ reports Project progress reports. GEMS methodology will be used to monitor works and will include information of the Methodology for Data Collection number of employees involved. Responsibility for Data Collection ANE Share of women and youth in employment under roads and bridges rehabilitation and upgrading works contracts (Percentage) These are proportion of women and youth employed in all roads and bridges rehabilitation and upgrading Description works contracts. Frequency Annual Data source ANE, monitoring consultants’ reports Project Progress reports. GEMS methodology will be used to monitor works and will include information of the Methodology for Data Collection number of employees involved (data will be disaggregated by gender and age). Responsibility for Data Collection ANE Employment generated from routine maintenance works contracts (Number) Number of workers (rural communities) engaged in multi-year routine maintenance contracts of roads and Description bridges under the project Frequency Annual Data source ANE, monitoring consultants progress reports Project progress reports. GEMS methodology will be used to monitor road and bridges maintenance contracts, Methodology for Data Collection and will include information of the number of employees involved from rural communities Responsibility for Data Collection ANE Share of women and youth in employment under maintenance contracts (Percentage) These are proportion of women and youth employed in all routine maintenance works contracts in SMEs and Description LCAs Frequency Annual Data source ANE, monitoring consultants’ progress reports Project progress reports. GEMS methodology will be used to monitor road maintenance contracts, and will Methodology for Data Collection include information of the number of employees involved from rural communities (data will be disaggregated by gender and age) Responsibility for Data Collection ANE Local community associations (LCAs) established and participating in road maintenance activities (Number) Description LCAs established, trained, and organized under the project to implement routine road maintenance works Frequency Annual Data source ANE, monitoring consultants’ progress reports Methodology for Data Collection Project progress reports Responsibility for Data Collection ANE Roads and bridges with available concept designs and bidding documents Kilometers of roads with feasibility study conducted and bid documents available for implementation under Description follow-on operations Frequency Annual Data source ANE, monitoring consultants’ progress reports Methodology for Data Collection Project progress reports Responsibility for Data Collection ANE Dedicated roadside walkways and cycle lanes for pedestrian & cyclist safety (Kilometer) Page 29 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) Walkways and cycle lanes will be provided for urban centers and populated zones to segregate pedestrians and Description cyclists from vehicle traffic. Frequency Annual ANE, monitoring consultants’ progress reports. Target will be determined through Road safety Impact Data source Assessment that will be carried out during the preparation of feasibility study within six months of grant effectiveness. Methodology for Data Collection Project progress reports Responsibility for Data Collection ANE Component 2: Safe Access and Mobility Improvement First responder training implemented along project roads (Number) First aid training for youth along project roads to attend to immediate response to victims of road traffic Description accidents Frequency Annual Data source ANE, monitoring consultants’ progress reports Project progress reports. GEMS methodology can be used to monitor the First Responder trainings conducted Methodology for Data Collection during project implementation. Responsibility for Data Collection ANE Citizen engagement surveys conducted in project area of influence (Number) Surveys will be conducted to collect feedback from project's beneficiaries on their expectations, experience, Description and satisfaction on the project interventions. Lessons learned will be captured to enable a more results- focused preparation of new projects Frequency Annual Data source ANE, monitoring consultants’ progress reports Project progress reports. GEMS methodology can be used conduct surveys and promote citizen engagement Methodology for Data Collection on the project areas of influence. Responsibility for Data Collection ANE Share of beneficiaries reporting satisfaction with project interventions (Percentage) Description Proportion of surveyed beneficiaries with satisfaction level of moderate to high Frequency Last survey at end of project Data source ANE, monitoring consultants’ progress reports Project progress reports. GEMS methodology can be used conduct surveys and promote citizen engagement Methodology for Data Collection on the project areas of influence (including satisfaction of beneficiaries) Responsibility for Data Collection ANE Economic and social facilities connected by improved climate resilient road access (Number) Economic and social facilities/infrastructure include (a) healthcare centers and hospitals, (b) markets Description (agricultural, fisheries, etc.), and (c) schools Frequency Annual Data source ANE, monitoring consultants’ progress reports Methodology for Data Collection Project progress reports Responsibility for Data Collection ANE Travel time for girls accessing secondary schools through the use of project provided bicycles. (minutes) Description Girls that use project-provided bicycles to access primary and secondary education facilities Frequency Annual ANE, monitoring consultants’ progress reports. The baseline and end line will be determined during the Data source preparation of feasibility study within six months of grant effectiveness. Methodology for Data Collection Project progress reports Responsibility for Data Collection ANE Component 3: Institutional Strengthening and Project Management Page 30 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) Climate and disaster risk management plan developed (Yes/No) This involves the development and operationalization of a climate and disaster risk management plan which Description includes early warning system and emergency response actions to flooding occurrences across the road network Frequency Annual Data source ANE, monitoring consultants’ progress reports Methodology for Data Collection Project progress reports Responsibility for Data Collection ANE, FE, MOPHRH Road asset management system improved (Yes/No) Description This indicator comprises the collection of road and traffic data, information on hazards and climate risk-related Frequency Annual Data source ANE, monitoring consultants’ progress reports Methodology for Data Collection Project progress reports Responsibility for Data Collection ANE, FE, MOPHRH Women trained and certified in vocational skills including concrete and masonry, plumbing, auto mechanics, steelworks, carpentry and joinery, etc. (Number) Description This measures the participation of women and youth in the skills development program Frequency Annual Data source ANE, monitoring consultants’ progress reports Project progress reports. GEMS methodology can be used to monitor vocational trainings conducted during Methodology for Data Collection project implementation (data will be disaggregated by age, gender, and type of training). Responsibility for Data Collection ANE, FE, MOPHRH Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and local community associations (LCAs) trained in road maintenance activities (Number) Description Training of SMEs and LCAs in road works including routine maintenance Frequency Annual Data source ANE, monitoring consultants’ progress reports Methodology for Data Collection Project progress reports Responsibility for Data Collection ANE Page 31 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) ANNEX 1: IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS AND SUPPORT PLAN 1. The implementation arrangements of the project will leverage both the decentralization reforms and the sector governance arrangements in Mozambique. This will include a field-based implementation mechanism supported by three entities at the center. MOPHRH will be responsible for the overall coordination of the project. The FE will be the implementing agency. ANE will be responsible for the road works and consultant assignments. The PIU embedded in the ANE provincial delegation in Cabo Delgado will be responsible for all aspects of project implementation, including procurement, through a mechanism of transition and increased responsibility in a phased manner. It will monitor road works, consultant assignments, and procurement. It will oversee engineering works, and lead on safeguards and M&E. The PIU will coordinate with contractors, stakeholders, and subnational Government entities. It will report to ANE and will work closely with the provincial councils. 2. Project Steering Committee (PSC). The Government will establish an inter-ministerial PSC responsible for strategic decision-making and monitoring of the overall project implementation. The PSC will include representatives of MOPHRH; FE; ANE; National Institute of Land Transport (Instituto Nacional de Transportes Rodoviários); Agency for the Integrated Development of the North (Agência para o Desenvolvimento Integrado do Norte, ADIN); Ministry of Economy and Finance; Ministry of Land, Environment, and Rural Development; Provincial Governors; Provincial Councils; and others as needed. It will become operational within four months of grant effectiveness and will meet twice a year to monitor progress. The FE and ANE will act as the secretariat of the PSC. The Government will align the PSC meetings of the project with the annual road sector meeting on the Integrated Road Sector Program (Programa Integrado do Sector de Estradas, PRISE) such that the PSC meeting is held in advance of the annual PRISE meeting and reports back key findings on progress to the PRISE audience. 3. The Minister of MOPHRH will chair the PSC. This PSC will (a) set policy and make high-level decisions, (b) facilitate coordination among the relevant agencies both at the center and at the provincial levels, (c) review and approve the annual work plans, and (d) assess risks to project implementation and identify solutions. 4. The FE will have overarching responsibility for FM including contracts payments. Government procedures require that international funds intended for the road sector are allocated to the FE. The FE will therefore manage the designated special dollar account into which project funds will be deposited and will submit withdrawal applications. It will track the use of funds and implementation progress. 5. ANE will prepare feasibility study, detailed designs, and bid documents. By decree, it is the only Government agency mandated to construct, rehabilitate/upgrade, and maintain the road network, in coordination with other levels of Government, contingent on the road classification. It will help supervise works, monitor physical progress, and ensure the successful completion of studies and training activities. It will prepare the PIM and handle project planning together with the PIU. ANE and the PIU will be responsible for procurement and M&E. 6. A PIU will be established in Cabo Delgado Province. It will be headed by a project coordinator and staffed with the following core team:83 (a) senior highway engineer, (b) senior bridge engineer, (c) procurement and contract management specialist, (d) social development specialist, (e) GBV and gender specialist, (f) environment specialist, (g) M&E officer, and (h) accountant. The PIU will track the day-to-day implementation of the project activities at the local 83 Support staff will comprise office assistants and drivers. Page 32 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) level and monitor the implementation of ESF instruments.84 It will report to ANE and work closely with ADIN. It will prepare annual work plans, monthly and quarterly progress reports, and other implementation documents. United Nations agencies, international/national nongovernmental organizations, and local civil society organizations will be hired if needed to provide services where appropriate. The recruitment of the key PIU staff has commenced, and the staff are expected to be onboarded within one month of effectiveness. The PIU will work closely with the Director of Central Services of Works and Projects at ANE. 7. Financial Management Assessment. A Financial Management Assessment was undertaken in accordance with the Directives and Policy for IPF and the Bank Guidance - Financial Management Manual in World Bank IPF Operations issued on September 7, 2021. The assessment covered aspects of budgeting, staffing, accounting system, reporting, internal controls, and internal and external audits. The assessment was done at the FE. The overall FM was assessed to be adequate with substantial residual risk due to the complexity of the project that will finance road infrastructures, which could lead to procurement irregularities and budget overruns. 8. Budgeting. Budget preparation and monitoring of budget execution will follow national procedures, and those are to be documented in the PIM. The FE will prepare annual budgets based on the annual work plans and the approved Procurement Plans. It is expected that the FE will prepare annual budgets that cover activities proposed to be carried out in each fiscal year throughout the project implementation. The FE will ensure that robust budget execution monitoring is in place to prevent budget overruns, and it will be responsible for producing variance analysis reports comparing planned with actual expenditures on a quarterly basis. These quarterly variance analysis reports will be part of the IFRs that will be submitted to the World Bank on a quarterly basis. 9. Staffing. The FE Finance Department will be responsible for the fiduciary aspects of the project. The department has finance staff with acceptable skills and experience to handle the FM and disbursement matters of the World Bank- financed projects. However, it would be strengthened by recruitment of at least an additional accountant. 10. Accounting. The FE will account for all project funds, expenditures, and resources using the existing accounting packages, which are adequate as it can produce reliable financial reports required to monitor and effectively manage the progress of the project and for being used by other World Bank-financed projects. The accounting packages will be customized to maintain separate records and ledger accounts for the project and allow the preparation of the project- specific financial reports. 11. Internal control. Internal control systems and procedures of the project will be based on procedures to be defined in the PIM. The FE has internal audit units that will include in their annual internal audit plans the review of the project activities. The World Bank procurement procedures shall be used to engage contractors, suppliers, and consultants for the project activities. The World Bank will also conduct regular supervision through desk review and field visits (that include expenditures and asset reviews) to ensure that the implementing agencies are maintaining adequate systems of internal controls and key procedures are complied with. 12. Financial reporting. The FE has been submitting to the World Bank acceptable IFRs on a regular basis. For the project, it will prepare quarterly IFRs for the project in form and content satisfactory to the World Bank, which will be submitted to the World Bank within 45 days after the end of the quarter to which they relate. The project funds and expenditures will be disclosed as a separate note in the FE annual financial statements instead of issuing a separate set of 84(a) ESMF, (b) ESIA, (c) RAP, (d) Gender Based Violence/Sexual Exploitation and Abuse/Sexual Harassment Risk Assessment and Prevention and Response Action Plan, and (e) Labor Management Plan. Page 33 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) project financial statements. The FE financial statements are prepared in accordance with the modified cash basis of accounting. 13. Funds flow. A DA in US dollars will be opened at the Bank of Mozambique (Central Bank) to receive funds from IDA to be managed by the FE. Payments of eligible project expenditures will be made from the DA to contractors, suppliers, and consultants. All payments to local suppliers and consultants will be made strictly in the local currency in compliance with Mozambique exchange control rules and regulations. 14. Disbursement arrangements. Disbursements of IDA funds will be report-based (IFR). An initial advance representing a six-month expenditure forecast will be made into each DA upon the effectiveness of the Financing Agreement and upon submission of a withdrawal application in Client Connection. The option of disbursing the IDA funds through direct payment, reimbursement, and special commitment will also be available. The World Bank will issue the Disbursement and Financial Information Letter, which will specify the additional instructions for the withdrawal of the proceeds of the IPF. 15. Auditing. The FE annual financial statements are audited by a private audit firm. The auditor expressed an unqualified opinion on the FE financial statements for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2022. The auditors did not raise major FM issues in their management letter. The audit of the project transactions shall form part of the FE annual audit process by the appointed external auditor. The project funds and expenditure will be disclosed as a note to the FE audited financial statements. The FE shall submit to the World Bank a copy of the audited financial statements within six months after the year-end. 16. Implementation support plan. Based on the current overall FM risk, the project will be supervised twice a year. In addition to desk-based reviews, the World Bank will perform field visit to ensure that the project’s FM arrangements operate as intended. Transaction review will be conducted during the field visits. The World Bank will provide tailored training to the FE staff on the World Bank FM and disbursement procedures as needed throughout the project implementation. To mitigate FM risks, the following measures will be taken. Table 1.1. FM Action Plan No. Action Responsibility Completion date 1 Develop and adopt the PIM including the FM procedures. FE Within one month after effectiveness 2 Recruit an accountant. FE Within one month after effectiveness 3 Customize the accounting packages to maintain separate FE Within two months after effectiveness records and ledger accounts for the project. 17. Procurement procedure. Activities under the project will be undertaken in accordance with ‘The World Bank’s Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers’ (Procurement Regulations) dated September 2023; the ‘Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants’ dated July 1, 2016; and the provisions stipulated in the Financing Agreement. 18. PPSD and Procurement Plan. The client has prepared and submitted to the World Bank the PPSD and Procurement Plan, which were reviewed and cleared by the World Bank on March 12, 2024. The Procurement Plan covers the first 18 months of the project implementation, outlining the approach and protocol to implement a fit-for-purpose procurement and achieve value for money. Page 34 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) 19. Procurement capacity assessment. The project will be implemented at the provincial level in Cabo Delgado. The PIU is being established starting from scratch with the recruitment of staff, mobilization of office space, and all the means to satisfactorily implement the project. While the conditions are being created in Cabo Delgado, the existing Acquisitions Management and Execution Unit (Unidade Gestora Executora Das Aquisições) of the local delegation of ANE will handle the procurement processes for the small-value contracts of the project, and the thresholds have been defined in the PPSD, including operating costs. The initial complex procurements of the project will be conducted by ANE at the central level. The World Bank has conducted the procurement capacity assessment of the ANE PIU at the central level and noted that it has experience in the execution of the World Bank-financed operations and that the procurement unit is well equipped with office space and all the means to perform the work satisfactorily. Nevertheless, some gaps have been identified in terms of staffing, record keeping, and contract management. To minimize risks, a procurement specialist was recently hired under the World Bank-financed IFRDP (P158231) to enhance ANE’s procurement capacity and improve the weak record keeping and contract management. On record keeping, ANE is using junior staff recently hired to improve the paper and electronic filing systems and upload all the documentation of post-review contracts in Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement. Further, given the GBV risks, the disqualification mechanism for noncompliance with SEA/SH contractual obligations in projects will apply to works contracts. The contractor/subcontractor disqualified by the World Bank for noncompliance with its SEA/SH prevention and response obligations will not be eligible for the World Bank- financed contracts for two years. Due to these factors, the overall risk for procurement is high. Page 35 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) ANNEX 2: CLIMATE RISKS AND PARIS ALIGNMENT Climate Risks 1. Mozambique has been long exposed to climate change and the impact of extreme climate events. According to the World Risk Index, which accounts for both exposure to extreme natural hazards and the vulnerability of the population, Mozambique is ranked seventh globally for having the highest disaster risk and is the only African country among the top ten.85 It is also among the most exposed to weather extremes, facing more frequent cyclones, droughts, and major flood events than many of its neighbors.86 Average temperatures increased by 1.5–2°C across Mozambique from 1961 to 2010, and further temperature increases are anticipated, especially in the interior, southern, and coastal regions.87 Floods, triggered by cyclones and intense rainfall events, have become more frequent in recent years and are expected to follow this trend because of climate change effects, threatening the country’s infrastructure and economy. The country has recorded 62 extreme disasters in 51 years (20 floods, 18 epidemics, 10 droughts, 13 cyclones, and 1 earthquake),88 and in 2019, Cyclones Idai and Kenneth slowed economic growth, with GDP growth dropping 1.2 percentage points. Cyclone Eloise in 2021 affected more than 441,000 people.89 2. Climate change is projected to further increase the risk of extreme weather events and associated natural hazards. Temperatures are expected to continue to rise across the country, and rainfall projections indicate an increase in the number of heavy rainfall events by 2060 and an increase in the propensity for river overflows and flooding and landslides. Increased river flows are projected to increase flood risk, particularly from January to March, while high- intensity rainfall is likely to increase flash flooding along the coast. Droughts are expected to last longer,90 and tropical cyclones are predicted to become more intense.91 In the context of climate change, the provision of reliable accessibility depends upon effective planning for potential impacts of extreme events, by improved understanding of current and future climate risks and of road vulnerability, and by building resilience of road corridors. 3. Mozambique’s coastal regions are particularly vulnerable to climate change, with significant potential economic implications. The country has one of the longest coastlines in Africa and hosts 60 percent of the population within its low- lying coastal lands. The key risks from climate change stem from the projected increase in sea levels and the associated higher frequency of extreme weather events. The World Bank estimates that this could force 916,000 people to migrate by 2040 (2.3 percent of the 2040s population). Coastal erosion (90 percent of which is attributed to climate change) will result in loss and damage to important ecosystems, such as coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrass, with implications for biodiversity. The economic implications of the climate change-related damage on Mozambique’s coastal areas are likely 85 World Risk Report 2023. https://weltrisikobericht.de/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/WorldRiskReport_2023_english_online.pdf. 86 Inform Index 2023. 87 The mean annual temperature is expected to increase by up to 1.4°C by 2030 and by 2.2°C by 2070, the highest increases being anticipated in the northeast. 88 Disaster Risk Assessment in Mozambique - A Comprehensive Country Situation Analysis; National Institute for Disaster Management (INGC), United Nations Development Programme, and Global Risk Identification Programme. January 2011. https://www.humanitarianlibrary.org/sites/default/files/2013/05/%2A%2A%2Amozambique_CSA_black.pdf. 89 WFP Mozambique Country Profile, World Food Programme, January 2021. https://reliefweb.int/report/mozambique/wfp-mozambique-country- brief-january-2021. 90 Mozambique, Ministry of Land and Environment 2021. 91 Irish Aid, 2017. Page 36 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) to be substantial. Climate change-related damages to critical infrastructure, such as ports, and to major cities would have knock-on implications for various sectors and the economy as a whole. 4. Climate change is projected to damage Mozambique’s road network—mainly due to increased heavy rainfall, flooding, and cyclones—with significant economic implications. The country’s road infrastructure is especially vulnerable to flooding. On average, 100 km of roads and 33,000 households are affected by flooding every year resulting in estimated direct losses of US$700,000 and US$17.5 million, respectively.92 Without proper adaptation measures, Mozambique could face a potential opportunity cost of 15 percent under median climate scenarios, translating into a lost potential of expanding the existing paved road network or upgrading unpaved roads in the country by 3,213 km of paved road.93 The impact is likely to be compounded by the projected increased frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. During Cyclone Idai in 2019, for example, damage to road infrastructure limited humanitarian interventions from Beira into the northern hinterland, as sections of primary roads and many secondary roads were cut off.94 Cyclone Freddy in 2023 caused severe damages to the road infrastructure in the provinces of Zambezia, Nampula, Manica, and Tete and part of Sofala.95 5. Bridges are vulnerable to extremes in precipitation, temperature, and storm surges. This can damage the structure and roadway deck of bridges. For example, if soil moisture levels become too high with increased precipitation, the structural integrity of aged or weak bridges could be compromised. Gradual increases in extreme rainfall events and damaging storms increase the risk of flooding, causing bridge closures, as well as the need for repair and reconstruction. Amplified extreme temperatures affect the thermal expansion and movement of joints, and therefore increase stress on bridges. The greater range of maximum and minimum temperature can damage bridge expansion joints. Any increase in the intensity of storm surges will cause more frequent or severe flooding of low-lying infrastructure and scouring bridge foundations due to eroding riverbeds.96 Many of the bridges in the project area are small-scale bridges, which once damaged, can become unstable and dangerous to use. When the bridges are destroyed and become inaccessible, rural communities will be isolated and unable to travel or purchase good. Future bridge structures in northern Mozambique will have to adjust for the direct and indirect impacts from climate change. A climate vulnerability risk assessment (CVRA) will be conducted for the bridges that are planned to be constructed under the project. Climate adaptation measures will be incorporated following recommendations of the CVRA and adjust for the direct and indirect impacts from climate change during preparation of the detailed engineering designs and construction of the bridges. 6. In comparison to the rest of the country, northern Mozambique is relatively less vulnerable to sea level rise and cyclones because the coastal zone is on higher ground, with fewer rivers, compared to the central and southern regions.97 However, the region is highly susceptible to erosion and flooding, which could affect the national-level roads putting international corridors at risk and affecting national and international trade. 7. Mozambique has developed various policies and frameworks to guide its response to climate change. In 2012, the GoM published its National Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy (2013–2025), which outlines implementation mechanisms for coordination, M&E, and financing. Its NDC, first published in 2018 and updated in 2021, 92 https://roadsforwater.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Mozambique-report-final.pdf. 93 Chinowsky et al. Infrastructure and Climate Chang: a study of impacts and adaptations in Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia. 2015. 94 Comino. Beira, Mozambique, After the Storm. 2021; Petricola et al. Assessing road criticality and loss of healthcare accessibility during floods, the case of cyclone Idai, Mozambique, 2019. 2022. 95 ANE. 2023. 96 USAID, Bridges: Incorporating Climate Change Adaptation in Infrastructure Planning and Design, 2015. 97 INGC. Study on the Impact of Climate Change on Disaster Risk in Mozambique: Synthesis Report. 2009. Page 37 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) aims to reduce GHG by 40 mtCO2e by 2025 and highlights disaster risk management, agriculture, livestock and pastoralism, fisheries, water, infrastructure, tourism, and food systems as some of the key sectors for adaptation and resilience. Mozambique is in the process of establishing a National Climate Change Monitoring and Evaluation System. Paris Alignment - Assessment Methods 8. The Paris Alignment Assessment covers the three steps of the World Bank methodology for IPF. For Step 1, the alignment of the project with the country’s climate strategies and priorities was evaluated, with particular attention to the NDC in light of the Paris Agreement. For Step 2, each component and subcomponent and individual activities within each component were screened to identify activities or components that are universally aligned, with low, moderate, or high risk, and to understand interlinks among activities so that activities posing a risk for the Paris Alignment could be specifically assessed. For those components or activities that were not universally aligned, assessments were made against criteria in Steps 2.1–2.3. No components or activities were identified that required further assessment under Step 3. Project Elements Assessed 9. To ensure Paris Alignment, specific components, subcomponents, and activities were evaluated as follows. (a) Component 1: Climate Resilient Road Connectivity Improvement has two subcomponents. Subcomponent 1.1 aims at upgrading and rehabilitating three major roadways (N381, R762, and N380) in the Cabo Delgado Province. It will improve the drainage of the roadways to ensure that they are more resilient against future floods. Subcomponent 2.2 focuses on the construction of five concrete bridges and the construction of 1,500 m of Bailey bridges to improve the drainage structures, so roads are more resilient against flooding. (b) Component 2: Safe Access and Mobility Improvement aims at improving the capacity of ANE, piloting road safety programs, providing first responder training for youth, and improving transport services in rural areas in the north. (c) Component 3: Institutional Strengthening and Project Management will strengthen institutional capacity and enhance climate resilience as well as strengthen the planning and management of road infrastructure in the north. (d) Component 4: a contingent emergency response mechanism and was separately assessed. Results Step 1: Taking into account our climate analysis (for example, CCDRs), is the operation consistent with the country climate commitments, including for instance, the NDC,98 NAP, 99 LTS,100 and other relevant strategies? Answer: Yes. Justification: The country’s latest NDC was submitted to the UNFCCC in December 2021. The updated NDC aims to reduce emissions by approximately 40 million tCO 2eq from 2020 to 2025. Transport and climate-resilient infrastructure are key priority areas for the country. As per the NDC, Mozambique commits to drafting and updating climate-robust planning instruments and ensuring that public investments are climate proofed. The National Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy describes the need to develop resilience mechanisms for urban areas and promote the use of renewable energy in the construction of urban infrastructure. The CCDR highlighted the importance of improving transport infrastructure in the country to 98 Nationally Determined Contribution 99 National Adaptation Plans 100 Long-term Strategies aka long term low GHG emissions development strategies Page 38 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) reduce the impact of climate change risks, while boosting development in rural poor regions. The CCDR also emphasizes the importance of improved flood protection infrastructure to address high spatial and temporal water resource variability. Mitigation Step M2: Assessing the risks M2.1. Is the IPF operation supporting the activities that are on the Universally Aligned list or Universally Non-Aligned list? Subcomponent 1.1: Low Risk. Subcomponent 1.1 involves the rehabilitation and maintenance of secondary roads currently in very poor conditions. This will include the widening of carriageways and ensure adequate shoulder widths and provisions for sidewalks and the accommodation of nonmotorized traffic where possible. Subcomponent 1.2: Universally aligned. Justification: Subcomponent 1.2 involves the construction of bridges in rural areas and will not lead to deforestation which are universally aligned activities.” Project activities will also construct 1,500 m of Bailey bridges without capacity expansion. Component 2: Universally aligned. Justification: Public administration activities are on the Universally Aligned list. Component 3: Universally aligned: Justification: Public administration activities are on the Universally Aligned list. Component 4: Universally aligned. Justification: Immediate emergency response is on the Universally Aligned list. Eligible activities will be described in the PIM. This will include provisions limiting eligible activities to temporary and timebound measures. If the Contingent Emergency Response Component is triggered, and if temporary and timebound measures are not appropriate for the response required for the emergency, then the Paris Alignment assessment will be conducted for the proposed activities before any disbursement is made. M2.2. Are there other means of achieving the Development Objective(s) with lower GHG emissions given the country’s unique circumstances, including consideration of the sector-wide decarbonization pathways, where applicable? Assessment for all project components. Answer: No. Justification: Project activities will focus on secondary roads which will not have lower-carbon alternatives to achieve the PDO. The roads that will be rehabilitated in the project area cannot be substituted by other lower-carbon modes, such as railways and inland waterway transport. In addition, the rehabilitation of the roads will provide provisions for road safety measures for pedestrians and nonmotorized vehicles. M2.3. Does the IPF operation prevent the transition to lower-carbon alternatives that can achieve the Development Objective(s) as they become viable? Assessment for all project components. Answer: No. Justification: The carbon lock-in risk of the secondary roads is low as it will not hinder the use of nonmotorized and public transport nor the transition to electric vehicles and other low-emission technologies as the roads will still be needed for the next generation of more energy-efficient transport modes. M2.4. Is the IPF operation economically viable after accounting for transition risks? Assessment for all project components. Answer: Yes. Justification: The risk of stranded assets for the project is low as these secondary roads will still be needed for the next generation of more energy-efficient transport modes. Adaptation Step A2: Assessing the risks A2. Are risks from climate hazards likely to have a material impact on the operation (including assets, services, and the systems as relevant) and its Development Objective(s)? Assessment for all project components. Answer: Yes. Justification: Information assessed during project design and application of the Climate Risk Screening Tool identified the project areas as exposed and vulnerable to several climate risks, including rising temperature, extreme precipitation and flooding, and rising sea levels. A3: Have measures been incorporated into the design of the operation to reduce material risks from climate hazards to an acceptable level? Page 39 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) Assessment for all project components. Answer: Yes. Justification: All project components are explicitly designed to reduce climate risks: Component 1 will retrofit existing assets to account for projected increases in flooding and storm surges by upgrading the unsealed gravel roads and expanding drainage capacity to cope with heavy rainfall. Raised and better enforced embarkments will also be implemented. Component 2 will improve the capacity of national agencies and provide education and training to effectively respond to emergency events. Component 3 will update design standards and develop emergency protocols and evacuation procedures to respond to extreme events. Component 4 is a contingent emergency response component, which will enable the Government to respond in the event of an eligible national emergency, including climate-induced disasters. These project activities remain exposed to climate hazards (for example, flooding and storms), which could impede the effective implementation of the project activities. This residual risk will be managed through measures set out in the project design and an effective adaptive management process through M&E, as well as the ‘research and development’ program associated with capacity building, technical assistance, implementation support, performance follow-up, and knowledge management. Page 40 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) ANNEX 3: PROMOTING LANDSCAPE RESTORATION AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE IN QUIRIMBAS NATIONAL PARK 1. The 15 km segment of the R762 Muepane–Quissanga road identified for rehabilitation and some of the bridges to be constructed and rehabilitated along the road N380 are located within the Quirimbas National Park, a protected area of approximately 7,500 km2 established in 2002 and designated as a United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization biodiversity reserve in 2018. The park includes miombo woodland, coastal forests, granite inselbergs, mangroves, coral rock islands, and vast intertidal sand flats, hosting a variety of plants and wildlife. Wholly located in the Cabo Delgado Province, the park is situated in what was once the epicenter of the conflict-affected region. The 130 villages within the park boundaries, many of which line the mainland coast or the main roads, including R762, have a population of approximately 165,000 people. The communities in Quirimbas National Park for the most part live in high poverty conditions and are heavily dependent on natural resources. They are extremely vulnerable to climate impacts. 2. In an effort to green the project and ensure the climate resilience and conflict mitigation goals of the project, steps will be taken to initiate diagnostics on landscape restoration, conservation, and climate resilience in the park under the project with additional support proposed for implementation under supplemental funds, whether by trust funds or additional financing at a later date should the Government and the World Bank agree. The proposed activities will include (a) an update of the Management Plan of the Quirimbas National Park aligned with the Government’s post-conflict plans to strengthen forest and wildlife conservation, improve livelihoods, and strengthen climate resilience; (b) delineation of measures to restore degraded lands, marine ecosystems, habitats, and watersheds in the vicinity of the R762 and associated bridges; (c) enumeration of interventions to better align forest conservation, improved livelihoods, enhanced drainage, flood protection, and climate resilience; and (d) identification of steps to strengthen the coastal ecosystem, including mangroves and coral reefs, to protect against storm surges. The activities to identify measures for future support will help ensure green and resilient transport corridors in the north. The anticipated afforestation and restoration of mangroves will provide climate co-benefits. The identification of needed next steps will be under the project while most of the actual implementation will be undertaken using supplemental funds. 3. The third component of the project, that is, Institutional Strengthening and Project Management, will include a needs assessment to identify specific measures in support of the Quirimbas National Park. Some of the discrete activities identified herein will be supported under subcomponents 1.1 and 1.2. This would include steps to elevate flood-prone road sections while providing for cross-drainage structures and storm water retention basins, and bioengineering measures such as afforestation to improve road slope protection and reduce erosion. The training for communities on improved natural resource management will be included under Component 3. The technical assistance for the Quirimbas National Park to upgrade its Management Plan will be provided under Component 3. More medium-term measures such as landscape, watershed, habitat, and marine ecosystem restoration as part of efforts to strengthen climate resilience and green the projects are proposed to be implemented under trust funds such as PROGREEN and PROBLUE or supplemental IDA resources to be subsequently agreed upon by the GoM and the World Bank. 4. The PIU to be set up in Cabo Delgado will partner with the Quirimbas National Park Administration. Dedicated environment and social specialists and an environment specialist, with a background in forestry or marine ecosystems, will be based at the PIU to help the park administration initiate these efforts on the ground. Page 41 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) ANNEX 4: PROJECT MAPS Figure 4.1. Proposed Roads and Bridges for Project Intervention and Follow-on Operations in Northern Mozambique Page 42 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) Figure 4.2. Proposed Roads and Bridges for Intervention and Follow-on Operation in Cabo Delgado Province Page 43 The World Bank Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (P500488) Figure 4.3. Roads under Interventions by Development Partners in Cabo Delgado Page 44