Report No: ICR00220 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT IBRD-85190 ON A LOAN IN THE AMOUNT OF EUR 178.7 MILLION (US$200 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF TUNISIA FOR TN-Road Transport Corridors March 28, 2025 Transport Middle East And North Africa The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective {June 30, 2024}) Currency Unit = Tunisian Dinar (TND) TND 3.13 = US$1 US$0.32= TND 1 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 Regional Vice President: Ousmane Dione Country Director: Ahmadou Moustapha Ndiaye Regional Director: Almud Weitz Practice Manager: Ibrahim Khalil Zaki Dajani Task Team Leader (s): Dominic Pasquale Patella ICR Main Contributor: Monjurul Hoque Mohammod Arif Uddin The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CCDR Country Climate and Development Report CPF Country Partnership Framework CETEC Center for Construction Techniques and Testing (“Centre d’Essais et des Techniques de la Construction”) DA Designated Account DGPC General Directorate of Roads and Bridges (“Direction Générale des Ponts et Chaussées”) DEER Direction de l’Exploitation et de l’Entretien Routier ESIA Environmental and Social Impact Assessment ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework ESMP Environmental and Social Management Plan FY Fiscal Year FTE Full-Time Equivalent FM Financial Management GDP Gross Domestic Product GoT Government of Tunisia GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism (Project) HDM Highway Development and Management Model IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IFI International Financial Institution IFR Interim Financial Report IS Implementation Support ISR Implementation Status and Results Report MDEAF Ministry of State Lands and Real Property (“Ministère du Domaine de l’État et des Affaires Foncières”) MEH Ministry of Equipment and Housing (Ministère de l’Equipement et de l’Habitat) MDTF Multi-Donor Trust Fund MENA Middle East and North Africa NTL Night-Time Lights NPV Net Present Value OP Operational Policy (of the World Bank) PAD Project Appraisal Document PAP Project-Affected People PBC Performance-Based Contracts PIU Project Implementation Unit RAP Resettlement Action Plan RN National Road (“Route Nationale”) RPF Resettlement Policy Framework RR Regional Road (“Route Régionale”) TND Tunisian Dinar TTL Task Team Leader TRTCP Tunisia Road Transport Corridors Project VKT Vehicle kilometers traveled WBG World Bank Group WHO World Health Organization The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET ................................................................................................................................................. i I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ..................................................................................1 II. OUTCOME .................................................................................................................................................6 III. KEY FACTORS AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ..................................................................... 12 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .............................. 13 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ......................................................................................................... 18 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................................................ 20 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ....................................................... 25 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ......................................................................................................... 28 ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................................ 29 ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ................................. 37 ANNEX 6. LIST OF SUPPORING DOCUMENTS ...................................................................................................... 38 ANNEX 7. PROJECT MAP ................................................................................................................................... 39 ANNEX 8. PROJECT PHOTOGRAPHS ................................................................................................................... 40 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT DATA SHEET @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@icrbasicdata#doctemplate BASIC DATA Product Information Operation ID Operation Name P146502 TN-Road Transport Corridors Product Operation Short Name Investment Project Financing (IPF) TN-Road Transport Corridors Operation Status Approval Fiscal Year Closed 2016 Original EA Category Current EA Category Partial Assessment (B) (Restructuring Data Sheet - 14 Jul Partial Assessment (B) (Approval package - 14 Jul 2015) 2023) CLIENTS Borrower/Recipient Implementing Agency Ministere de l’Equipement, de l'Habitat, et de REPUBLIC OF TUNISIA l’Amenagement du Territoire DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE Original Development Objective (Approved as part of Approval Package on 14-Jul-2015) The objectives of the Project are: (i) to reduce transportation cost and time and improve road safety on select road corridors between lagging regions and more developed areas in the territory of Tunisia; and (ii) to strengthen the capacity of the Ministry of Equipment, Habitat and Land Planning in road asset management. s @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@icrfinancing#doctemplate FINANCING Financing Source Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing 200,000,000.00 194,404,029.10 189,162,567.61 i The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT IBRD-85190 200,000,000.00 194,404,029.10 189,162,567.61 World Bank Administered 909,000.00 909,000.00 909,000.00 Financing TF-A0260 909,000.00 909,000.00 909,000.00 Non-World Bank Financing 30,100,000.00 0.00 0.00 Borrower/Recipient 30,100,000.00 0.00 0.00 Total 231,009,000.00 195,313,029.10 190,071,567.61 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Amount Disbursed Date(s) Type Key Revisions (US$M) 29-Mar-2017 Portal 27.98 • Loan Closing Date Extension 27-Feb-2018 Portal 56.48 • Loan Closing Date Extension 20-Jun-2018 Portal 66.73 • Loan Closing Date Extension • Results 19-Mar-2019 Portal 105.64 • Safeguard Policies Triggered • Reallocations • Loan Closing Date Extension 11-May-2020 Portal 156.86 • Loan Cancellations • Reallocations • Results • Disbursement Estimates 18-Jul-2022 Portal 189.58 • Disbursement Arrangements • Loan Closing Date Extension • Reallocations • Disbursement Estimates 14-Jul-2023 Portal 189.58 • Loan Closing Date Extension • Implementation Schedule @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@icrkeydates#doctemplate KEY DATES Key Events Planned Date Actual Date Concept Review 12-Dec-2013 12-Dec-2013 Decision Review 18-Feb-2015 18-Feb-2015 Authorize Negotiations 20-May-2015 20-May-2015 ii The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT Approval 14-Jul-2015 14-Jul-2015 Signing 02-Oct-2015 Effectiveness 31-Dec-2015 30-Dec-2015 ICR/NCO 31-Mar-2025 -- Restructuring Sequence.01 Not Applicable 29-Mar-2017 Restructuring Sequence.02 Not Applicable 27-Feb-2018 Restructuring Sequence.03 Not Applicable 20-Jun-2018 Restructuring Sequence.04 Not Applicable 19-Mar-2019 Restructuring Sequence.05 Not Applicable 11-May-2020 Restructuring Sequence.06 Not Applicable 18-Jul-2022 Restructuring Sequence.07 Not Applicable 14-Jul-2023 Mid-Term Review No. 01 02-Sep-2019 02-Sep-2019 Operation Closing/Cancellation 30-Jun-2024 30-Jun-2024 @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@icrratings#doctemplate RATINGS SUMMARY Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality ISR RATINGS Actual Disbursements No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating (US$M) 01 03-Dec-2015 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0.00 02 06-Jun-2016 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0.00 03 02-Feb-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 27.98 04 18-Sep-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 37.69 05 03-Apr-2018 Satisfactory Satisfactory 66.73 Moderately 06 08-Nov-2018 Satisfactory 91.73 Unsatisfactory iii The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT 07 18-Jan-2019 Satisfactory Satisfactory 105.63 08 30-Jul-2019 Satisfactory Satisfactory 126.02 09 29-Jan-2020 Satisfactory Satisfactory 141.49 10 09-Jul-2020 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 170.94 11 24-Feb-2021 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 185.18 12 22-Sep-2021 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 189.58 13 29-Jun-2022 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 189.58 14 05-May-2023 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 189.58 Moderately 15 11-Mar-2024 Moderately Satisfactory 189.58 Unsatisfactory Moderately 16 28-Jun-2024 Moderately Satisfactory 189.58 Unsatisfactory @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@icrsectortheme#doctemplate SECTORS AND THEMES Sectors Adaptation Mitigation Major Sector Sector % Co-benefits Co-benefits (%) (%) FY17 - Transportation FY17 - Rural and Inter-Urban Roads 100 0 0 Themes Major Theme Theme (Level 2) Theme (Level 3) % FY17 - Economic Policy FY17 - Trade FY17 - Trade Facilitation 30 FY17 - Private Sector FY17 - Jobs FY17 - Job Creation 17 Development FY17 - Regional Integration 20 FY17 - Rural FY17 - Rural Development Infrastructure and 17 FY17 - Urban and Rural service delivery Development FY17 - Urban FY17 - Urban Development Infrastructure and 17 Service Delivery iv The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Practice Manager Oliver Le Ber Ibrahim Khalil Zaki Dajani Regional Director Paul Noumba Um Global Director Pierre Guislain Nicolas Peltier-Thiberge Practice Group Vice President Hefez Ghanem Guangzhe Chen Country Director Neil Simon M. Gray Ahmadou Moustapha Ndiaye Regional Vice President Inger Andersen Ousmane Dione ADM Responsible Team Leader Vickram Cuttaree Dominic Pasquale Patella Co-Team Leader(s) Andrew Losos ICR Main Contributor Monjurul Hoque Mohammod Arif Uddin I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Context 1. At project appraisal, Tunisia was navigating through a period of economic challenges. In 2011, the revolution in Tunisia marked the beginning of a political transition that led to the approval of the 2014 Constitution, followed the same year by presidential and parliamentary elections. Tunisia’s economic performance had slowed since 2011, although until 2010, the country was experiencing notable growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. In 2011, with a decrease in the gross domestic product (GDP) of 1.9 percent, total unemployment reached 18 percent, up from 13 percent in the previous year. The disparities between Tunisia’s urban and rural regions increased over the past decade, with urban areas accounting for more than 85 percent of national GDP and receiving over 65 percent of public investment since 2000. This distribution impacted the development path of the Center-West and North-West, with poverty rates exceeding 30 percent and unemployment reaching 20 percent1. 2. In Tunisia, the road network accounted for virtually all movement of persons and over 80 percent of goods transportation2. The increase in traffic, particularly of heavy-duty vehicles, as well as 9 percent of the national road network with dual lanes, and 50 percent of local roads in acceptable or satisfactory condition, resulted in a reduction in road capacity, degradation of the carriageways, and increased crashes. The quality and efficiency of connectivity had become an area of concern for the country. 1 Project Appraisal Document, TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) 2 Project Appraisal Document, TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) Page 1 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT 3. Disparities in road infrastructure between the lagging regions and urban areas had been a key factor in their slower socio-economic progress. Lagging regions suffered from poor and unsafe road conditions due to slow traffic resulting from single-lane roads and heavy trucks carrying agricultural products and raw materials. Poor connectivity reduced market linkages of lagging region to economic hubs and limited economic growth and job creation. Improving road sections to growth centers was seen as a key step to increasing public services and economic opportunities in these regions, including increased private sector investments. 4. Road traffic crashes remained a significant challenge in Tunisia, costing 4.5 percent of GDP annually. Despite some progress on road safety at the strategic and institutional levels, the country was losing 1,505 lives annually (with the World Health Organization estimating the loss of lives at 2,679)3. High crash occurrences outside of cities highlighted the importance of improving road safety on national and regional roads. 5. According to World Bank Group (WBG) analysis4, Tunisia was allocating only 36 percent of the maintenance budget required to keep the network stable. Budgetary allocations for road maintenance were inadequate, partly due to an outdated road asset management system. The absence of a comprehensive road database and analytical tools for assessing the overall state of the road network resulted in sub-optimal investment decisions based on subjective assessments and negatively impacted the lagging regions. 6. The Tunisia Road Transport Corridors Project (TRTCP) aimed to reduce transportation time and costs, enhance road safety, and stimulate private sector investment in the lagging regions. This initiative was aligned with Tunisia's broader goals of modernizing road asset management through a more strategic, evidence-based approach, which would help target resources efficiently and ensure long-term sustainability. The WBG provided funds from the MENA Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) for technical assistance to the government for modernizing the country’s road asset management. Project investments were expected to boost job creation and economic inclusion, connecting project corridors better with the cities and contributing to Tunisia's national strategy for growth and shared prosperity. 7. The project was in line with the WBG’s Interim Strategy Note (ISN) for Tunisia (FY13-14). The project supported ISN Area 1: Laying the Foundation for Sustainable Growth and Job Creation, and Area 2: Promoting Social and Economic Inclusion. The project re-engaged the WBG with Tunisia's road sector after 10 years and was well aligned with the WBG’s MENA’s Regional Strategy, supporting the pillars of accelerating private sector-led sustainable growth, ensuring economic and social inclusion, and creating jobs. Precursors that brought the WBG to TRTCP included the government’s request to WBG to support long-term policy reforms, the value addition of technical expertise, and complementing the efforts of other International Financial Institutions (IFIs) in network development, institutional strengthening, and improving road safety. Theory of Change (Results Chain) 8. The Project Appraisal Document (PAD) did not include a Theory of Change as it was not required at appraisal. The Theory of Change illustrated in Figure 1 was created for this ICR in alignment with the project description and the Results Framework (RF) outlined in the PAD. 3 WHO.2015. “Global Status Report on Road Safety 2015” 4 Analysis conducted based on the maintenance budget figures provided by DGPC and converted to dollars using April 30, 2015, exchange rate Page 2 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT Figure 1. Theory of Change Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 9. As stated in the Legal Agreement dated October 2, 2015, the PDO was “(i) to reduce transportation cost and time and improve road safety on select road corridors between lagging regions and more developed areas in the territory of Tunisia; and (ii) to strengthen the capacity of the MEH in road asset management.” The PAD contained the same PDO formulation. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators Table 1. PDO and PDO Indicators PDO Indicators Reducing transportation cost and time and • Reduction of vehicle operating costs on the roads improve road safety on select road corridors improved by the project (Percentage) between lagging regions and more developed • Reduction in travel time on the roads improved by areas. the project (Percentage) • Number of traffic-related fatalities per hundred million vehicle kilometers travelled (vkt) on the roads improved by the project (Number) Strengthening the capacity of the MEH in road No PDO indicator. asset management. Page 3 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT Components 10. The description of components and the original and actual resource allocation of the project (in US$, millions) are summarized in Table 2. Table 2. Component Description and Allocations Components Subcomponent Cost Component • 1.1: Widening (single to dual carriageway) and upgrading 57 Total: US$228.2 million 1. km of National Road 12 (RN12) • IBRD US$200.0 million • 1.2: Widening (single to dual carriageway) and upgrading 65 • GoT US$28.2 million Road km of National Road 4 (RN4) At Completion: • improvement 1.3: Widening (single to dual carriageway) and upgrading 24 - US$189.16 million – km of Regional Road 133 (RR133) IBRD & US$25 million - • 1.4: Supervision of the activities to be carried out under Sub- GoT5 Components 1.1, 1.2, and 1.3 Component • 2.1: Purchase of monitoring equipment Total: US$2.8 million 2. • 2.2: Institutional strengthening (grant financing) • MDTF US$0.91 million Road • US$1.9 million-GoT network Actual: monitoring • US$0.91million – MDTF improvement & US$2 million - GoT6 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION 11. The project went through seven restructurings, and the key changes are summarized in Table 3. Table 3. Key Changes during Restructurings No. Date Key Changes 1 29-Mar- • MENA MDTF technical assistance grant closing date extended by 11 months. 2017 2 27-Feb- • MENA MDTF technical assistance grant closing date extended by 4 months. 2018 3 20-June- • MENA MDTF technical assistance grant closing date extended by 3 months. 2018 4 19-Mar- • Component 1 scope expanded to include a new 55 km road section, the 2019 Tataouine corridor. • Required cost of Euro 44.3 million came from currency depreciation surplus. • Natural Habitats (OP/BP 4.04) triggered. • PDO sub-indicator and four intermediate indicators updated to include the new corridor. • Loan disbursement categories amended for the new corridor and exchange rate fluctuations. 5 Reported by General Directorate of Roads and Bridges, Borrower ICR Comments, March 2025 6 Reported by General Directorate of Roads and Bridges, Borrower ICR Comments, March 2025 Page 4 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT 5 11-May- • Loan closing date extended by 18 months. 2020 • Euros 5 million cancelled due to surplus from Tunisian Dinar depreciation and savings to support Tunisia’s fiscal headroom and contribute funds for the Tunisia First Resilience and Recovery Emergency DPF (P173324). • Funds relocated across disbursement categories. 6 18-Jul- • Loan closing date extended by 12 months. 2022 • IBRD financing increased from 87 percent to 100 percent for smooth implementation. • Disbursement estimates, end dates of targets, and results framework indicators for the Tataouine corridor revised. 7 14-Jul- • Loan closing date extended by 12 months. 2023 • Disbursement estimates and implementation schedule revised. • RF indicators for the Tataouine corridor were revised as per the Restructuring Paper, but were these were not reflected in the RF. Revised PDO and Outcome Targets 12. The PDO was not revised. Changes were made to PDO indicators when the Tataouine-Medenine section to the A1 corridor was added in Restructuring 4 on March 19, 2019, along with the targets for the new corridors: (i) Reduction of vehicle operating costs on the roads improved by the project (Percentage); (ii) Reduction in travel time on the roads improved by the project (Percentage); and (iii) Number of traffic-related fatalities per hundred million vehicle kilometers traveled (vkt) on the roads improved by the project. The targets of the following intermediate indicators were revised to include the new corridor: (i) Roads constructed, non-rural (Kilometers); (ii) Roads rehabilitated, non-rural (Kilometers); (iii) Person-months of employment created during construction (Number); and (iv) Direct project beneficiaries (Number). Revised Components 13. Component 1 was revised to include the Tataouine corridor 7. On December 30, 2016, the additional lagging corridor was added utilizing the surplus generated from the depreciation of the Tunisian Dinar and savings from competitive procurement of works. Other Changes 14. There were no other changes to the project. Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change 15. Project restructurings had no implication on the original Theory of Change. As discussed in Paragraph 13, the addition of the Tataouine corridor was in line with the PDO and aligned with CPF Pillar 2. The seven restructurings were primarily to extend (i) the closing date of the MDTF grant (three times) to enable the completion of the contracts and ensure knowledge transfer to GoT; and (ii) the loan closing date (three times), primarily enable work on the Tataouine corridor to be completed. 7 Tataouine-Medenine to A1 Corridor Page 5 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT II. OUTCOME A. RELEVANCE OF PDO Rating- High Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating 16. The PDO remains relevant and well-aligned with the WBG’s Tunisia Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for FY23-27. The PDO directly supports CPF Objective 1.3, which focuses on reducing regional economic disparities by increasing the number of people in disadvantaged areas benefiting from improved municipal infrastructure. The TRTCP is explicitly mentioned in the CPF as a key project contributing to this objective by enhancing inter-regional connectivity and service delivery in lagging regions. 17. The PDO is also in line with the MENA Regional Strategy of 20118 which aims to foster peace and social stability by enhancing connectivity, development, and private sector-driven growth in underdeveloped areas. Additionally, it aligns with the MENA Infrastructure Strategy of 2021, which envisions the provision of both physical and digital infrastructure to support MENA’s transition towards green, inclusive, and sustainable growth. The PDO is also aligned with the 2023 Tunisia Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), as it includes investments in resilient infrastructure, such as long-lasting pavement designs, addressing flood zones, and the development of an asset management system; focuses on the enhancement of human capital by improving road safety and capacity building in asset management; and reduces fuel consumption and consequently lowers greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to the smoothness of the pavement surface in the rehabilitated segments. 18. The PDO is well-aligned with the GoT’s Five-year Development Plan (2023-2025) and the National Road Safety Strategy (2023-2034). The Development Plan emphasizes maintaining social peace and bridging regional development gaps, which are closely aligned with the PDO. The National Road Safety Strategy aims to significantly reduce road traffic fatalities and injuries by 2034, with which the PDO is aligned. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) Rating – Modest Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome PDO 1: Reduce transportation cost and time and improve road safety on select road corridors between lagging regions and more developed areas 19. At appraisal, three corridors (RN12, RN4, and RR133) were selected, while the Tataouine corridor added as part of the subsequent restructuring to utilize loan savings. Activities included widening single carriageways to dual carriageways, constructing greenfield dual carriageways, enhancing road furniture and delineation, and building 19 bridges, 243 overpasses, and 66 intersections. The first three corridors were opened to traffic by 2021, while the fourth corridor is expected to be completed by FY25, with two of the three lots already completed. As shown 8 https://worldbankgroup.sharepoint.com/sites/WBMNA/SitePages/PublishingPages/RegionalStrategy.aspx Page 6 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT in Table 4, the PDO target for roads constructed has been substantially achieved, while the intermediate target for roads constructed has been partially achieved. Those intermediate indicators related to road construction and rehabilitation will be achieved once the Tataouine corridor is open to traffic. The project map is in Annex 7 and Before-and-after pictures are in Annex 8. 20. Reduction in vehicle operating costs. The targets for the three original sections were exceeded (see Table 4 below) for a weighted average reduction of 22.14 percent (RN12 - 22.7, RN4 - 22.2, and RR133 20.7 percent), compared to the weighted average target of 11.78 percent. The Tataouine corridor is expected to meet its target when it is opened to traffic. The three opened corridors show increased traffic. Qualitative analysis during the impact assessment 9 at these sections indicates that the number of shuttles and privately owned vehicles has likely increased due to lower vehicle operating costs as well as improved road safety, particularly in the governorates of Sousse (across RN12) and Zaghouan (across RR133). Some companies have acquired buses to help employees located in other Governorates a reliable option for their long-distance commute. 21. Reduced travel time. Travel time in the original three corridors has reduced by a weighted average of 37.25 percent (the Tataouine corridor is also likely to either meet or exceed its target), while the target was a weighted average of 26.05 percent. Table 4 below provides the comparison between appraisal estimates and achievements in each corridor. Targets were achieved for all opened corridors (RN12 - 45.7, RN4 - 33, and RR133 - 28.6 percent). Before-after analysis using OpenStreetMap during the impact assessment showed reduced travel times from economic centers like Tunis and Bizerte to all the governorates in the project corridors, with the largest accessibility gains from the project being observed in the lagging Centre-West regions and more specifically in the Governorate of Kairouan. The General Directorate of Roads and Bridges (DGPC) 10 reported reduced congestion and improved traffic flow, particularly at the RN12-Sousse bypass junction and in Zaghouan and Kairouan. The ICR team found significant time savings in lagging regions (Kairouan, Siliana, Zaghouan, Le Kef), with 4.17-16.15 percent savings to the nearest industrial hubs and 3.06-14.5 percent to the nearest ports. However, travel time savings for key exports (Olive Oil and Dates) were minimal, suggesting better sector alignment particularly with agricultural growth centers could have increased competitiveness and project gains. 22. Traffic fatalities. The completed project road corridors improved on the targeted lower traffic fatality rates, with a weighted average fatality reduction of 2.54 per hundred million VKT for the opened corridors, against the targeted rate of 3.6 and baseline rate of 5.1411; see Table 4 for details. The key factors that contributed to fatality reductions were: (i) routine road safety audits; (ii) infrastructure interventions like traffic separation; and (iii) facilities for vulnerable road users. During site visits as a part of the ICR mission, heavier built-up areas were noticed, in addition to over speeding and faded road markings. To sustain the results achieved and ensure that users are safe in the project corridors, the project needs to ensure proper enforcement and maintenance of the facilities. 23. The project has also substantially achieved the targets of direct beneficiaries and jobs created. 24. The overall achievement of PDO 1 is rated Substantial. Based on the PDO indicator targets relating to vehicle operating costs, travel time, and fatalities being exceeded in the three original corridors, as well as the expectation that these achievements will be replicated in the Tataouine corridor when it completed later this year, as well as 9 World Bank. 2023 “Unveiling Economic Outcomes of the Tunisia Road Transport Corridor Project: Lessons Learned”. Working Version. 10 General Directorate of Roads and Bridges, Borrower ICR, December 2024 11 Baseline data were collected for 2008-2012, and endline data considered reported fatalities in 2020-2022. Page 7 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT the output indicator targets being substantially achieved (except for road rehabilitation), the achievement of PDO 1 is rated Substantial. Table 4. Achievement of Outcome and Output Indicator Targets of PDO 1 Indicator Name Baseline Target Result Achievement PDO Indicator Reduction of vehicle operating costs on RN12: 0 RN12: 6.10 RN12: 22.7 Substantially the roads improved by the project RR133: 0 RR133: 16.40 RR133: 20.7 achieved (Percentage) RN4: 0 RN4: 15.10 RN4: 22.2 Tataouine: 0 Tataouine: Tataouine: 36.30 N/A12 Reduction in travel time on the roads RN12: 0 RN12: 22.10 RN12: 45.7 Substantially improved by the project (Percentage) RR133: 0 RR133: 25.00 RR133: 28.6 achieved RN4: 0 RN4: 30.00 RN4: 33.0 Tataouine: 0 Tataouine: Tataouine: 27.60 N/A Number of traffic-related fatalities per RN12: 5.30 RN12: 3.70 RN12: 1.7 Substantially hundred million vehicle-kilometers RR133: 7.00 RR133: 4.90 RR133: 3.3 achieved travelled (vkt) on the roads improved RN4: 4.30 RN4: 3.00 RN4:3.0 by the project (Number) Tataouine: Tataouine: Tataouine: 14.80 10.40 N/A Intermediate Indicator Roads constructed, non-rural 0 185.20 142.50 Substantially (Kilometers) achieved Roads rehabilitated, Non-rural 0 16.00 2.50 Partially (Kilometers) achieved Direct project beneficiaries (number), 0 47,968 40,800 Substantially of which female (percentage) (Core) achieved Person-months of employment created 0 648,669.00 603,000.00 Substantially during construction (Number) achieved PDO 2: Strengthening the capacity of MEH in road asset management 25. The project aimed to support the Center for Testing and Construction Techniques (CETEC) to enhance road asset management of the Ministry of Equipment and Housing (MEH), using Government funds as well as funds from an MDTF Grant. Using Government funds, the project planned to procure monitoring equipment for CETEC headquarters and regional offices as well as supervision vehicles for supervising civil works. Funded by MDTF, the project planned to procure decision-making tools, build the capacity of MEH personnel, and increase private sector engagement through reviewing the role of private and public sectors as well as using performance-based contracts (PBC). 12 Targets are likely to be exceeded once the corridor is opened to traffic. Page 8 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT 26. Government-funded activities. Planned activities under counterpart funding had a limited impact on the ground, including DGPC’s road asset management capacity. CETEC’s engagement concerned pavement testing of the project corridors. 27. MDTF-funded activities. A five-year investment plan was prepared in 2018 using HDM-4; however, the road network is still being managed using manual processes without HDM-4 being used. A feasibility study on PBC was completed in 2017 and a technical specification for the pilot project was validated; however, the decision-making database is not being used. The planned educational trips abroad were carried out. Asset management continues to rely on manual systems, and the maintenance budget saw a reduction from TND 1,125/km in 2018 to TND 824/km in 2023. 28. Table 5 below. (The Results Framework did not include any PDO level indicators to assess the achievement of PDO 2.) Table 5. Achievement of Output and Outcome Targets under PDO 2 Indicator Name Baseline Target Result13 Achievement Intermediate Indicator Preparation and execution of a five-year No Yes Yes Partially achieved, investment and maintenance plan using HDM-4 based on the (Yes/No) preparation of the plans Feasibility Study on performance-based No Yes Yes Achieved contracting completed and technical specification for a pilot project in lagging regions validated (Yes/No) Percentage of the national and regional road 0.00 100 80 Partially achieved network (traffic and state of roads) managed using HDM-4 (Percentage) Use of road asset management principles by No Yes Yes Partially achieved, DGPC for maintenance budget assessment budget allocation still (Yes/No) relies on manual process Available budget for routine maintenance of 1,542.00 1,927.00 824.00 Not achieved classified roads (TND/km) Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating 29. Based on the above analysis of the achievements of the two PDO elements, the overall Efficacy of the project is rated Modest. 13 Reported by Implementation Status Report 14 and DGPC ICR, not necessarily agreed by the ICR Team Page 9 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT C. EFFICIENCY Rating: Substantial Assessment of Efficiency and Rating 30. Economic Analysis. An economic analysis was conducted during project appraisal for RN4, RN12, and RR133, using the HDM-4 Version 2 model over a 20-year period with a 10 percent discount rate. A similar analysis was carried out for the Tataouine corridor during the restructuring, using a discount rate of 8 percent. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the economic viability of the four corridors even in worst-case scenarios. 31. The ex-post economic analysis evaluated all improved road sections, replicating the ex-ante evaluation based on costs at completion and updated traffic estimates. The ex-post economic justification for the project is robust, as shown in Table 6. Annex 4 contains details of the analysis. Table 6. Ex-Post Economic Evaluation Key Parameters Appraisal Restructuring14 Approval Completion Approval Completion Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) (%) 29.5 30.4 14.7 22.1 Net Present Value (NPV) (TND million) 294.9 693.1 88.3 247.8 32. Design efficiency. The original design was sound and in line with GoT priorities to support lagging regions as well as to strengthen the capacity of MEH in road asset management. An additional corridor was added to utilize savings resulting from competitive bidding and the depreciation of the Tunisian currency; however, it was not ready for implementation. In hindsight, it appears that the portion of the capacity building component that relied on counterpart funds should instead have been funded from the loan. 33. Implementation efficiency. The project took nine years to complete instead of the planned five and half years, with construction on-going in the Tataouine corridor under GoT financing at the time the loan closed. The contracts for RN4, RN12, and RR133 were approved in 2016, but took longer than planned15 mostly due to issues relating to land acquisition and resettlement, as well as contract management. The completion of the Tataouine corridor has been delayed by three years due to delays in land acquisition, disruption of the supply of raw materials, and extreme weather, as well as the COVID-19 pandemic and the global supply chain crisis. 34. Timely cancellations and restructurings were carried out to adjust to the evolving needs. EURO 5 million was canceled from the loan to release funds for Tunisia’s COVID-19 pandemic response via the Tunisia First Resilience and Recovery Emergency DPF. 35. Based on the above discussion, the efficiency of the project is rated Substantial. D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING 36. The overall outcome rating is Moderately Unsatisfactory, based on the ratings of Relevance as High, Efficacy as Modest, and Efficiency as Substantial, based on the achievement of PDO 2 as Modest. 14 Out of three lots, two were completed at project closing, and the final lot will be completed by June 2025. 15 General Directorate of Roads and Bridges, Borrower ICR, December 2024 Page 10 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity 37. The TRCTP aimed to enhance economic opportunities in lagging regions and reduce disparities between developed and hinterland areas. It engaged the local labor force in roadwork activities in rural and disadvantaged areas that had limited employment opportunities. At closing, the project created at least 40,800 person-days16 of employment, providing additional income for semi-skilled and unskilled local workers. The ICR team's analysis indicated that the project generated 9,500 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs. Additionally, night-time lights (NTL) analysis around project roads showed a 3.5 percent increase in NTL activity in the opened corridors in comparison to control sections, indicating a positive impact on economic activity in areas surrounding the upgraded roads. 38. The impact assessment of the project revealed several positive outcomes : (i) new investments in regions like Kairouan and Zaghouan as result of new industrial facilities and increased production capacities among established companies, leading to higher revenues; (ii) improved intra-regional travel conditions after the opening of RR133, enhancing access to international markets and reducing freight costs, which stimulated employment, including female employment; 9iii) firms were encouraged to provide affordable, safe, and reliable transport, leading to job creation, with 77 percent of surveyed companies reporting that they rented or owned vehicles for employee transport; and (iv) interviews indicated a consensus among respondents in beneficiary governorates that inter- regional mobility improved significantly since the corridor opened. Gender 39. Women were consulted during appraisal and implementation, but the project did not include a gender assessment. The impact assessment showed that road improvements created job opportunities for women, with companies reporting better mobility outcomes for female employees who used safer, company-owned transport. DGPC noted improved facilities increased women's access to social and community facilities and economic opportunities in the textile, tourism, handicrafts, and agriculture sectors. Institutional Strengthening 40. The Project had a minimal impact on strengthening road sector institutions as discussed in the Efficacy section under PDO 2. However, the country is likely to see some improved road asset management capacity, once the inputs and lessons learned from TRTCP are properly actioned. Mobilizing Private Sector Financing 41. The Project had a minimal impact on mobilizing private sector financing, as discussed in the Efficacy section under PDO 2. Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts 42. Not applicable. 16 Implementation Status and Results Report No. 16, June 28, 2024 Page 11 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT III. KEY FACTORS AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION 43. The project objectives were realistic, and the design was simple and manageable, keeping in mind the sensitive socio-economic environment described in Paragraph 1, the DGPC's limited experience with the WBG, and the presence of a transition GoT until February 2015. However, DGPC's capacity should have been assessed more carefully, especially in handling land acquisition and safeguard matters, as well as procurement and FM. 44. The project correctly included a dedicated component for building the capacity of MEH. The project design relied on counterpart funds and an MDTF grant to finance the activities of this component. The supervision over counterpart funds, and the failure to address this shortcoming during implementation, affected the achievement of PDO Element 2. 45. The RF had appropriate targets and a monitoring plan for the infrastructure element of the PDO. However, the RF did not include a PDO level indicator for PDO Element 2. 46. The project conducted the necessary due diligence on safeguard and fiduciary aspects through the required assessments17 and prepared various safeguard documents as needed. Project preparation included extensive training on the WBG’s safeguard and fiduciary policies and requirements. The risk ratings were generally adequate except for the rating Institutional Capacity risk as Moderate, which did not appear to take account of this project being the government's first road project with the Bank in ten years. B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION Factors subject to the Government’s or Implementation Agency’s Control 47. The project benefited from high level support within GoT, but level of coordination and follow-up communications with the implementation agencies resulted in delays. Payment of compensation affected land acquisition, with compensation payments not yet completed in the Tataouine corridor, see section on Safeguards compliance. 48. Contracts for the original corridors were awarded within a year. Delays in preparing bid documents and weaknesses in contract management affected project implementation and led to a suspension in disbursements18 and a three-year stoppage in 2021. The Project Implementation Unit (PIU) was understaffed, especially in procurement. Factors subject to the World Bank Control 49. The Bank’s in-country Task Team Leader (TTL) provided timely site-specific solutions. The Bank approved site- specific infrastructure measures as needed, e.g., a roundabout in Tataouine to improve safety and sand barriers to respond to the impacts of climate change. Periodic site visits ensured compliance with Bank safeguard 17 Annex 3, Project Appraisal Document, TN-Road Transport Corridors. 18 Implementation Status and Results Report No. 15, March 11, 2024 Page 12 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT requirements; however, the Bank could have addressed issues relating to speed management near roundabouts and substandard road markings. 50. The Bank worked closely with GoT to restructure the project to ensure optimal utilization of the loan to achieve the PDO. The Bank accepted the GoT request to increase the disbursement percentage for civil works from 87 percent to 100 percent19 to facilitate prompt contract payments. In addition, the Bank accepted the GoT proposal to use loan savings from the work on the original corridors to construct the Tataouine corridor. However, the environmental and social aspects of this mostly greenfield road ought to have been appraised more carefully to ensure readiness for implementation. Factors outside the Government’s or Implementation Agency’s Control 51. The COVID-19 pandemic impacted the project significantly 20, slowing construction, and affecting site visits, supervision missions, and data collection, as well as affecting worker safety. Monthly PIU-WBG meetings, a virtual monitoring system using GEMS and Mapillary tools and relevant training for PIU staff helped monitor and report road works and keep project implementation delays to a minimum. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) M&E Design 52. The Project design was appropriate to achieve the PDO, with specific and well-articulated outcomes in the Result Framework PDO 1; there were no PDO level indicators for PDO 2. Intermediate results indicators were appropriately selected to reflect the progress of activities and outputs leading to PDO outcomes. The majority of the project’s indicators met the SMART (i.e., Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound) criteria. However, the PDO indicators could have included targets for the entire project in addition to the corridor-specific metrics for travel time, cost, and safety. Further, the project could have chosen more achievable intermediate indicators for PDO 2. 53. Project monitoring was to be carried out by the MEH through the DGPC, with supervision consultants assigned to manage the road works and collect data. The data collection plan was sound, combining various sources including HDM-4, GoT official data, and budget data. The plans for regular progress reports and the mid-term review were appropriate. However, as DGPC had not worked with the WBG for a decade, the capacity of these institutions to manage and analyze M&E data could have been strengthened with more training and resources dedicated to data quality assurance and reporting. 19 Restricting Paper 6, Report RES50125 20 Implementation Status and Results Report No. 12, September 22, 2021 Page 13 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT M&E Implementation 54. The project revised all PDO outcome indicator targets and that of one intermediate indicator when the Tataouine corridor was added. The project, however, missed the opportunity to add a PDO indicator on asset management during the restructurings. 55. The project’s performance in M&E reporting was mixed. Time and cost savings were reported appropriately, and reporting on safeguard and fiduciary aspects was generally timely; however, three of the four fatal events in construction sites were not reported 21,22. In addition, the government delayed finalizing the Mid-term report significantly 23. DGPC's M&E capacity was assessed as weak at closing and none of the outcome indicators were updated for the closing period. M&E Utilization 56. M&E data was used to inform operations, including the restructuring to add a new corridor to utilize loan savings, change disbursement categories, extend the closing date to ensure completion, and suspending the project due to the government's poor reporting performance. Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E 57. Based on the above discussion, the overall quality of the M&E is rated Modest. B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE Environmental and Social 58. The original project was classified as Category B, triggering WBG safeguards policies: Environmental Assessment (OP/BP 4.01), Forests (OP/BP 4.36), and Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12). An Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF), site-specific Environmental and Social Impact Assessments (ESIAs), Environmental and Social Management Plans (ESMPs), Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF), and Resettlement Action Plans (RAPs) were prepared and disclosed at appraisal. The restructured project, also Category B, triggered Natural Habitats (OP/BP 4.04) and the ESMF was updated to reflect the changes. Sub-project specific safeguards instruments were prepared and implemented based on the ESMF. An overarching ESMP was disclosed and implemented for 13 road rehabilitation/construction contracts. No waiver of WBG policies was required, but compliance with OP 4.12 was incomplete, with only 19 percent of the compensation paid. Overall compliance with environmental and social safeguards was Moderately Unsatisfactory. 59. A Grievance Redress Mechanism (GRM) was established for each works contract to allow project-affected persons (PAPs) to access information and lodge complaints regarding road construction and operation, including compensation for access to land as well as infrastructure improvements to meet road users' expectations. This tool was effectively utilized by both the PAPs and the PIU to manage communications and address issues. 21 Implementation Status and Results Report No. 6, November 8, 2018 22 Implementation Status and Results Report No. 14, May 5, 2023 23 Implementation Status and Results Report No. 11, February 24, 2021 Page 14 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT Additionally, the GRM was used to ensure fair treatment and working conditions for project workers on the work sites. 60. One of the project’s strengths was its engagement with local communities, particularly in the Tataouine region. Concerns raised by beneficiaries regarding road safety led to design adaptations that addressed specific issues such as pedestrian safety and traffic management. This participatory approach underscored the value of integrating community feedback into project design and implementation. 61. At the project's start, the PIU lacked resources to manage and monitor the environmental and social management plan. To jump-start the project, three consultants assisted the PIU, and later, focal persons were hired for social and environmental aspects. Despite DGPC's experience with other IFIs, as it had not worked with the WBG for a decade, the WBG provided multiple training sessions. DGPC ensured monitoring and reporting on RAP implementation, with support from the Ministry of State Property and Land Affairs (MDEAF), the governorates of Tataouine and Medenine, and regional MEH Directorates. The PIU produced acceptable quarterly reports highlighting progress and the remaining actions. DGPC also contributed to the Post Closing Action Plan for the remaining E&S issues, mainly incomplete compensation for PAPs. Despite increased capacity, recurring performance shortfalls were observed, particularly in implementing the resettlement framework, reporting incidents, and responding to the WBG's queries and follow-up requests. The project could have included more capacity-building activities for key actors in PAP compensation, including the central and regional services of the MDEAF and the governorates. 62. The project invested significant resources in implementing the RAP but could not complete the activity by project closing. The WBG could have prioritized corridors without legacy issues (eighty percent of the PAPs are from legacy issues related to previous government projects that occurred before 2015) and could have conducted a comprehensive social analysis to avoid this. The complicated land status in the Tataouine corridor and limited institutional capacity, including inadequate inter-ministerial coordination and bureaucracy24,25 , were the main reasons for non-compliance with OP 4.12, which involves compensating PAPs and clearing the rights of way before commencement of civil works. Factors such as land fragmentation, uncertainty about collective lands, absence of PAPs, and low compensation rates contributed to the slow progress. Additionally, the gap between the national legal framework and OP 4.12 was significant and contributed to the slow pace of the activity and consumed significant resources of the project team. 63. Unpaid compensation for the Tataouine corridor amounted to about TND 2,140,332, which is two-thirds of the total escrowed amount of TND 3,108,000 in the Public Treasury for compensation. TRTCP’s unpaid compensation amounted to TND 9,571,858, representing 81 percent of TRTCP’s escrowed amounts. 64. The project had four fatalities, two in RN12 and two in the Tataouine corridor. In October 2017, a project worker was killed by a construction vehicle in RN12. In June 2018, a non-project driver in a light cargo truck collided with a project vehicle in RN12 and died. In July 2022, a non-project truck driver overturned in the project area, resulting in a fatality in the Medenine-Tataouine connection. In May 2023, a passenger died when a truck hit a roundabout. Causes included failure to wear protective gear, poor nighttime delineation, unprotected roadsides, and lack of lighting and enforcement. DGPC failed to report the incidents timely in the first three cases. The failure to report two consecutive fatal road crashes in RN12, later detected by the WBG during a mission in October 2018, led to 24 Implementation Status and Results Report No. 12, September 22, 2021 25 Implementation Status and Results Report No. 15, March 11, 2024 Page 15 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT the project's suspension of disbursements from the loan in October 2018 for three months26. This could have been avoided, if DGPC were aware of WBG reporting requirements. 65. The suspension marked a turning point for safeguard compliance. The 2019 Corrective Safeguard Action Plan introduced significant improvements, including immediate corrective measures, a revised Social, Environmental, Health, and Safety (SEHS) plan, reinforcement of the RAP, and concrete measures to ensure monitoring of SEA/SH risks for this project. The GoT showed its strong commitment by resolving the issues that led to the suspension. Major changes included stricter incident reporting deadlines (24 hours for contractors, 48 hours for the GoT) and enhanced oversight. After the third incident, nighttime safety protocols were strengthened with reflective signage and routine training. The WBG and GoT agreed to continue OHS supervision after the project's closure in June 2024 on unpaid resettlement compensation, including compensation for victims. Fiduciary 66. Procurement. A Procurement Capacity and Risk Assessment conducted during project preparation identified the overall procurement risk as Moderate, with concerns about bureaucratic oversight. Throughout the project, the implementing agency's procurement performance was mostly rated as Moderately Satisfactory or Satisfactory. The World Bank provided training for DGPC during the preparation and implementation phases. 67. The country’s practice of evaluating financial bids before technical proposals and giving more weight to the lowest bidders led to procurements at extremely low-cost, jeopardizing the quality and durability of works, as well as the financial soundness of contractors 27 . A new law enacted in October 2022 mandates that all IFI procurement activities will be prior reviewed by the donor instead of the Commission, thus benefiting ongoing and future WBG projects. 68. There were no waivers to World Bank procurement policies or instances of mis procurement, and the World Bank demonstrated flexibility by providing site-specific solutions, such as using national bidding documents for national calls for bids and intervening to resolve queries. However, the project’s contract management suffered throughout its duration due to understaffing28. Timely responses from the Procurement Control Commission (which had the highest turnaround time in MENA29), better planning, and a fully staffed PIU would have facilitated smoother project implementation. 69. Financial Management (FM). A FM Capacity and Risk Assessment conducted during project preparation identified the overall risk as Substantial. Throughout the project, the implementing agency's FM performance was mostly rated as Moderately Satisfactory, with some Moderately Unsatisfactory ratings. The World Bank arranged multiple trainings for the GoT during project preparation and implementation. 70. There were no waivers to World Bank financial policies or instances of ineligible expenditures until 2024. Submissions of interim unaudited project financial statements in Client Connection were delayed in multiple cases due to the PIU's failure to use the bank platform. Throughout project implementation, only two of the eight audit reports were submitted on time. In both cases, the bank had to extend the submission deadline. The internal audit 26 Implementation Status and Results Report No. 6, November 8, 2018 27 Working version of PPSD Corridor economic RN13 Composantes Infrastructures 28 Implementation Status and Results Report No. 9, January 29, 2020 29 World Bank MENA Procurement Dashboard Page 16 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT function was never implemented, despite the World Bank raising the issue on multiple occasions30. Internal control weaknesses were reported by external auditors31, and the GoT delayed implementing the action plan. 71. At closing, disbursement from the loan was 96 percent. C. BANK PERFORMANCE Quality at Entry 72. Project Design. The World Bank collaborated effectively with other IFIs working in the country and conducted a sectoral review during the project design phase. The PDO and project activities were appropriate considering the special circumstances mentioned in Paragraph 1 and were aligned with the country's needs to ensure economic growth in the lagging regions. The Results Framework was SMART, except that there was no PDO indicator to assess the achievement of the PDO element on institutional development. 73. Risk Assessment. The overall implementation risk was appropriately assessed as Substantial. Political and Governance risk was rated as High, and Microeconomic risk as well as Environmental and Social risk were rated Substantial. However, the Moderate rating of Institutional Capacity risk did not appear to take account of the Bank re-engaging in this sector in Tunisia after ten years. 74. Selection of Corridors. Accessibility impact varied in the original three corridors, with RR133 having a much higher accessibility impact compared to the other two corridors. While finalizing the project corridor to utilize loan savings, the World Bank could have explored other options that did not have legacy issues relating to resettlement, as was the case with the Tataouine corridor. Quality of Supervision 75. The Bank conducted 16 missions during December 2015 – June 2024, with the missions comprising technical, financial, institutional, social, and environmental expertise. In-country TTLs provided frequent on-going support between missions. ISRs, Aide Memoires, and Management Letters provided regular oversight, with Aide Memoires offering detailed data and analysis. The World Bank brought in specialized expertise as needed, including two road safety experts from the French Ministry of Public Works 32 , to help DGPC prepare the SCAP, leading to the suspension being lifted in October 2018. The Bank’s monthly site visits ensured safer construction and enabled the Bank to identify operational problems early and initiate appropriate remedial actions. The Bank consistently highlighted road safety risks and ensured road safety compliance during implementation. The Bank followed up appropriately on direct communications from PAPs to ensure that they were resolved by DGPC33. 76. The Bank will continue to supervise the remaining work on the Tataouine corridor in 2025, as per the agreed project closing action plan, including the payment of the remaining compensation to the PAPs. 30 Implementation Status and Results Report No. 11, February 24, 2021 31 Implementation Status and Results Report No. 10, July 9, 2020 32 Implementation Status and Results Report No. 7, January 18, 2019 33 Implementation Status and Results Report No. 5, April 3, 2018 Page 17 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT 77. Some of the weaknesses in Bank supervision included: the lack of a comprehensive economic and social analysis of the greenfield Tataouine corridor prior to its inclusion in the project as part of the restructuring; and the failure to identify and address issues related to counterpart funding for Component 2 and its impact on achieving PDO 2. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance 78. Based on the above discussion on Quality at Entry and Quality of Supervision, Bank performance is rated Moderately Unsatisfactory. D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 79. The PDO element was achieved only to a modest extent. To achieve it to a greater degree, the GoT will need to undertake significant follow-up efforts, and the WBG will need to collaborate closely with the government. This can be accomplished through subsequent projects, ongoing dialogue, or sector work. 80. A key risk to the PDO is the continued inadequate funding to properly maintain the developed assets. The government's low priority on asset management was evident with the continued use of manual systems, a shrinking maintenance budget, and poor data collection on the ground. At project closing in June 2024, there was little detail shared either on the allocation for the sector, or evidence of significant funding for preserving the assets delivered under the project. 81. Proper funding mechanics covering longer periods beyond project lifespans need to be established. This ensures adequate funding for proper planning and execution of road asset management and maintenance. Attention34 should be given to vulnerable road user facilities, managing urban settlements, access control where necessary, regulating parking, and proper traffic management in urban settings. V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 82. Road investments can drive economic recovery in critical political environments. Following the revolution in 2011, the project aimed to connect lagging regions, improving accessibility, creating jobs, and increasing investment. A deeper analysis of site selection could enhance recovery, as regional roads and last-mile connections generate stronger economic impacts than larger trunk roads. Aligning infrastructure projects with the supply chains of targeted industries would yield more financial gains, supporting broader economic recovery. 83. Inadequate assessments for greenfield investments can cause significant project delays. The project faced delays after adding the Tataouine corridor without comprehensive risk assessments, leading to delayed contractor mobilization, cost increases, and gaps in contract management. These issues were compounded by the unforeseeable COVID-19 pandemic, capacity constraints within the public administration, and impractical contract management structures. Instead of focusing on greenfield investments, using surplus funds for activities related to the development objective could have mitigated these delays and improved project outcomes. Also, applying readiness filters at the design/restructuring stage is important to achieve successful outcomes. These filters, as 34 General Directorate of Roads and Bridges, Borrower ICR, December 2024 Page 18 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT highlighted in the Tunisia CPF, could include political economy, the degree of counterpart ownership, and institutional capacity. 84. Proper supervision and monitoring of institutional strengthening activities are essential to enhance accountability and sustainability. Relying solely on counterpart financing for major activities to sustainably contribute to road asset management capacity-building proved ineffective, resulting in modest efficacy. World Bank financing of key activities, strong supervision and M&E of the planned activities, as well as strong focus on PDO achievement would have provided greater control and ensured sustainability of the effort. The project missed the opportunity to ensure sustainability by not revising activities, as well as ensuring adequate financial and institutional arrangements during restructuring, which impacted road asset management. 85. Targeted fatality reduction is achievable with improved safety measures. The project met the fatality reduction targets by incorporating safety features such as proper signage, facilities for vulnerable road users, and barriers, in addition to providing medians in all corridors. Early and thorough planning, including road safety audits and risk assessments, significantly reduced fatalities even in high-speed environments. Comprehensive assessments of traffic risk during construction and incorporating proper mitigation measures in the works contracts and supervising the implementation of these measures under supervision consultant contracts, could help transport projects avoid fatalities during construction. Sustaining project achievements in fatality reduction requires proper maintenance of road infrastructure and managing roadside businesses to prevent increased crashes and reduced project effectiveness. 86. Comprehensive capacity building on WBG safeguard and fiduciary requirements is necessary when the World Bank reengages in countries after a long break. The project overestimated the implementing agency's capacity in M&E, safeguards, and fiduciary issues, particularly in aligning them with World Bank expectations. This led to challenges due to legacy resettlement issues and poor contract management. Issues such as limited internal capacity and experience with World Bank-financed projects, as well as procurement challenges, should have been factored in during decision-making. While it was appropriate to hold the government accountable for ensuring compliance, the World Bank could explore alternative options besides suspension, which affected project progress adversely and impacted the partnership between the World Bank and GoT. Addressing legacy resettlement issues, as in the Tataouine corridor, is extremely difficult and the World Bank needs to develop protocols to handle such cases in a more effective manner. Page 19 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@icrresultframework#doctemplate A. RESULTS FRAMEWORK PDO Indicators by Outcomes Reduce transportation cost and time and improve road safety on select roads to lagging regions Indicator Name Baseline Closing Period (Original) Closing Period (Current) Actual Achieved at Completion Result Month/Year Result Month/Year Result Month/Year Result Month/Year Reduction of vehicle operating costs 0.00 Sep/2015 0.00 Jun/2023 0.00 Jun/2024 on the roads improved by the project (Percentage) (Percentage) RN12 corridor (Percentage - 0.00 Sep/2015 6.10 Jun/2022 22.70 Jun/2024 Sub-Type: Breakdown) (Percentage) RR133 corridor (Percentage - 0.00 Sep/2015 16.40 Jun/2022 20.70 Jun/2024 Sub-Type: Breakdown) (Percentage) RN4 corridor (Percentage - 0.00 Sep/2015 15.10 Jun/2022 22.20 Jun/2024 Sub-Type: Breakdown) (Percentage) Tataouine Corridor 0.00 Jan/2019 36.30 Jun/2023 0.00 Jun/2024 (Percentage) Reduction in travel time on the roads 0.00 Sep/2015 0.00 Jun/2023 0.00 Jun/2024 improved by the project (Percentage) (Percentage) RN12 corridor (Percentage - 0.00 Sep/2015 22.10 Jun/2022 45.70 Jun/2024 Sub-Type: Breakdown) (Percentage) RR133 corridor (Percentage - 0.00 Sep/2015 25.00 Jun/2022 28.60 Jun/2024 Sub-Type: Breakdown) (Percentage) Page 20 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT RN4 corridor (Percentage - 0.00 Sep/2015 30.00 Jun/2022 33.30 Jun/2024 Sub-Type: Breakdown) (Percentage) Tataouine Corridor 0.00 Jan/2019 27.60 Jun/2023 0.00 Jun/2024 (Percentage) Number of traffic-related fatalities 0.00 Jun/2015 0.00 Jun/2023 0.00 Jun/2024 per hundred million vehicle- kilometres travelled (vkt) on the roads improved by the project (Nu mber) (Number) RN12 corridor (Number) 5.30 Jun/2015 3.70 Jun/2022 1.70 Jun/2024 RR133 corridor (Number - 7.00 Jun/2015 4.90 Jun/2022 3.30 Jun/2024 Sub-Type: Breakdown) (Number) RN4 corridor (Number - Sub- 4.30 Jun/2015 3.00 Jun/2022 3.00 Jun/2024 Type: Breakdown) (Number) Tataouine Corridor 14.80 Jan/2019 10.40 Jun/2023 0 Jun/2024 (Number) Intermediate Indicators by Components Road Corridor Improvement Indicator Name Baseline Closing Period (Original) Closing Period (Current) Actual Achieved at Completion Result Month/Year Result Month/Year Result Month/Year Result Month/Year Roads constructed, non-rural 0.00 Sep/2015 185.20 Jun/2023 142.50 Jun/2024 (Kilometers) Roads rehabilitated, Non-rural 0.00 Sep/2015 16.00 Jun/2023 2.50 Jun/2024 (Kilometers) Person-months of employment 0.00 Sep/2015 47,968.00 Jun/2023 40,800.00 Jun/2024 created during construction Comments on achieving targets Actual indicator value is estimated based on road sections. (Number) (Number) 0.00 Sep/2015 648,669.00 Jun/2023 603,000.00 Jun/2024 Page 21 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT Direct project beneficiaries Comments on achieving targets The road sections of the RN4, RN12 and RN12 have been completed (373,564 beneficiaries). (Number) Female beneficiaries 0.00 50.00 50.00 (Percentage) Grievances registered related to 0.00 Sep/2015 100.00 Jun/2023 100.00 Jun/2024 delivery of project benefits that are actually addressed within the stipulated timeframe (percentage) – disaggregated by gender of the complainant (Percentage) Road Network Management Improvement Indicator Name Baseline Closing Period (Original) Closing Period (Current) Actual Achieved at Completion Result Month/Year Result Month/Year Result Month/Year Result Month/Year Preparation and execution of a 5-year No Sep/2015 Yes Jun/2023 Yes Jun/2024 investment and maintenance plan using HDM-4 (Yes/No) Feasibility Study on performance- No Sep/2015 Yes Jun/2022 Yes Jun/2024 based contracting completed and technical specification for a pilot project in lagging regions validated (Yes/No) Use of road asset management No Sep/2015 Yes Jun/2023 Yes Jun/2024 principles by DGPC for maintenance budget assessment (Yes/No) Percentage of the secondary road 0.00 Sep/2015 100.00 Jun/2023 80 Jun/2024 network (traffic and state of roads) managed using HDM-4 (Percentage) Available budget for routine 1,542.00 Sep/2015 1,927.00 Jun/2023 824.00 Jun/2024 maintenance of classified roads (TND/km of classified roads) (Amount(USD)) Page 22 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT B. KEY OUTPUTS Reduce transportation cost and time and improve road safety on select roads to lagging regions 1. Reduction of vehicle operating costs on the roads improved by the project (Percentage) PDO Indicators 2. Reduction in travel time on the roads improved by the project (Percentage) 3. Number of traffic-related fatalities per hundred million vehicle-kilometres travelled (vkt) on the roads improved by the project (Number) 1. Reduction rates in operating costs are 22.7% for RN12, 20.7% for RR133, and 22.2% for RN4. Key Outputs 2. Reduction rates in travel time are 45.7% for RN12, 28.6% for RR133, and (linked to the achievement of the PDO Outcome) 33.0% for RN4. 3. Number of traffic-related fatalities per hundred million vehicle-kilometres travelled is 1.7 for RN12, 3,3 for RR133, and 3.0 for RN4. Road Network Management Improvement 1. Preparation and execution of a 5-year investment and maintenance plan using HDM-4 2. Feasibility Study on performance-based contracting completed and technical specification for a pilot project in lagging regions validated 3. Use of road asset management principles by DGPC for maintenance budget Intermediate Results Indicators assessment 4. Percentage of the secondary road network (traffic and state of roads) managed using HDM-4 5. Available budget for routine maintenance of classified roads (TND/km of classified roads) Page 23 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT 1. 5-year investment and maintenance plan using HDM-4 has been prepared and executed 2. Feasibility Study on performance-based contracting has been completed and technical specification for a pilot project in lagging regions has been validated Key Outputs 3. DGPC have been using road asset management principles for maintenance (linked to the achievement of the Component) budget assessment 4. 80% of the National and Regional Road Network (traffic and state of roads) has been managed using HDM-4 5. Available budget for routine maintenance of classified roads is 824 TND/km of classified roads Road Corridor Improvement 1. Roads constructed, non-rural 2. Roads rehabilitated, Non-rural 3. Person-months of employment created during construction (Number) Intermediate Results Indicators 4. Direct project beneficiaries 5. Grievances registered related to delivery of project benefits that are actually addressed within the stipulated timeframe (percentage) – disaggregated by gender of the complainant 1. 142.5 km of non-rural roads were constructed. 2. 2.5 km of non-rural roads were rehabilitaed. Key Outputs 3.603,000 direct beneficiaires (50% are female). (linked to the achievement of the Component) 4. 100% of grievances registered However, no gender disaggregation of the complainants available. C. Page 24 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS TASK TEAM MEMBERS Name Role Vickram Cuttaree Team Leader Andrew Michael Losos Team Leader Kristin Panier Team Leader Marc Marie Francois Navelet Noualhier Team Leader Marc Marie Francois Navelet Team Leader Dominic Pasquale Patella Team Leader Mohamed Adnene Bezzaouia Environmental Specialist Olfa Khelifi Ep Arfaoui Environmental Specialist Adnan Bezzaouia Environmental Specialist Mohamed Ghourabi Environmental Specialist Amos Abu Environmental Specialist Markus Friedrich Vorpahl Social Specialist John R. Butler Social Specialist Antoine V. Lema Social Specialist Monia Braham Social Specialist Rebecca Emilie Anne Lacroix Social Specialist Ruma Tavorath Social Specialist Blandine Marie Wu Chebili Procurement Specialist Jocelyne Jabbour Procurement Specialist Slaheddine Ben-Halima Procurement Specialist Jean-Jacques Verdeaux Procurement Specialist Walid Dhouibi Procurement Specialist Abdoulaye Keita Procurement Specialist Karim Chabir Procurement Specialist Lova Niaina Ravaoarimino Procurement Specialist Shirley Foronda Financial Management Specialist Page 25 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT Ahmed Zouari Financial Management Specialist Jean Charles Amon Kra Financial Management Specialist Samia Karboul Ep Guerfala Financial Management Specialist Ahohouindo Mongnihoude Jean L Gbaguidi Financial Management Specialist Mehdi El Batti Financial Management Specialist Jean-Charles Marie De Daruvar Counsel Elena Segura Labadia Counsel Andrianirina Michel Eric Ranjeva Team Member Besma Saadi Refai Team Member Franck Bessette Team Member Jacques Espalieu Team Member (Highway Engineer) Narjes Jerbi Team Member Olivier P Team Member Leila Chelaifa Team Member Mohamed Mehdi Majdoub Team Member Roukaya Ben Mahmoud Team Member Olfa Hachani Ep Limem Team Member Melanie Jaya Team Member Serge Peghwende Bela Urban DRM Yves Albert Gilles Joudou Highway Engineer Alexandra Spenol Transport Economist @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@icrannexstafftime#doctemplate B. STAFF TIME & COST Staff Time & Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of Staff Weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY14 21.633 215,441.92 FY15 44.238 262,329.70 FY16 0.897 5,753.01 Page 26 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT Total 66.77 483,524.63 Supervision/ICR FY16 37.581 182,822.13 FY17 20.122 137,039.55 FY18 27.802 181,967.49 FY19 32.565 192,087.26 FY20 27.723 235,146.63 FY21 33.327 223,078.37 FY22 39.446 320,746.51 FY23 45.346 357,143.25 FY24 17.318 201,193.04 FY25 9.393 63,181.67 Total 290.62 2,094,405.90 Page 27 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Component Amount at Approval (US$M) Actual at Project Closing (US$M) Road Corridor Improvement 228.2 189.16 (IBRD), 25 (GoT) Road Network Management 2.8 0.9 (MDTF), 2 (GoT) Improvement Page 28 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS i. An ex-post economic analysis was conducted for the project, replicating the analysis done during preparation to the extent possible. At Approval (appraisal and restructuring), the Highway Development and Management Model, version 2 (HDM-4) was used to compute annual road agency and users’ costs for project alternatives for all project road sections over an evaluation period of 20 years and using a discount rate of 10 percent at appraisal (RN4, RN12, and RR133) and 8 percent at restructuring (Tataouine corridor). The evaluation assessed the costs and benefits of the new corridor. Costs included construction and maintenance costs. Maintenance costs included periodic and yearly maintenance. ii. The quantified benefits computed by HDM-4 comprise savings in vehicle operating costs, travel time costs, road maintenance costs due to the road improvements, and road-related traffic deaths. A reduction in costs of CO2 emissions with the project was also quantified but not included in economic benefits at Approval. Thus, to be consistent, the economic benefits of a CO2 emission reduction was not included at completion. iii. At completion stage, the economic analysis is conducted for the same roads for which the economic analysis was conducted at the Approval by HDM-4, following the same assumptions at each stage for respective road sections, except for a) modest revisions on road length. Actual costs (roadworks cost and maintenance cost) and the traffic volume and growth rate, and the road crash (accident) rate, based on the Client ICR of the TRTCP35 and the most updated information available at the time of completion. Economic Analysis at Project Appraisal and Restructuring – changes at Completion iv. In undertaking economic evaluation at appraisal and at completion, the following assumptions were applied in the HDM-4 calculation. The detailed data comparisons are shown in Table 7 . Unless specified, the same assumption is used at appraisal and at completion. v. Base alternative of the evaluation is “Do nothing”: the case of not implementing the project but carry out only routine maintenance. Project alternative considers rehabilitation the existing road by furnishing the road with all necessary safety items (signing, making, fencing, etc.) for the original project scope: RN4 (65 km), RN12 (56 km), RR133 (24.5 km), and the scope of the restructuring: Tataouine corridor (54.7 km). vi. At appraisal, the roadworks would commence in 2015 for R12 and RR133, and in 2016 for R4 and in 2019 for the Tataouine corridor. The roadworks would be completed within two years from commencement at appraisal. In the actual, the roadworks started 2016 for R4, RR133 and opened in 2020 and R12 started in 2016 and opened and in 2021. Tataouine corridor started in 2019 as planned and will be completed in 2025. vii. The main roadworks for RN4, RN12, and RR133 were pavement rehabilitation and upgrading from single lane for both directions to dual lanes for both directions. By-pass Kairouan North (RN12) was a new construction. Sousse Interchange (RN12) was newly created. In the Tataouine corridor, road widening, pavement strengthen, and new constructions (express and bypass) were conducted. Road surface condition (IRI)36 before the project was a range from 4.0 to 5.0. 35 General Directorate of Roads and Bridges, Borrower ICR, December 2024 36 International Roughness Index. An analytical measure of the roughness of a road’s surface and thereby of its maintenance state. Page 29 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT viii. Because of the variety of situations found, the project roads were broken down into sections, according to traffic and technical characteristics. All project roads include sections with comparatively lower traffic, improved as part of the project to provide homogenous service level on the itinerary. The detailed road characteristics are shown in Table 7. Table 7. Road Characteristics Before Project • Carriage • Length • No. of lanes • • Shoulder AADT • in Improvement with • • Road Name Section name width (km) per direction width (m) 2013 project (m) PK0-1.5 1.5 2 14 2 6,864 Strengthening Upgrade (2 lane per RN4 PK1.5-63.7 62.2 1 7.5-7.8 2 7,757 direction) PK63.7-65 1.3 2 15 2 9,038 Strengthening Sousse I/C 1 1 7.5 2 New interchange Main section 25,474 Upgrade (2 lane per 45 1 7.5 2 (km 5-50) direction) By-pass Non- Non- Non- New construction (2 RN12 Kairouan 4.2 Non-existent existent existent existent lane per direction) (North By-pass Upgrade (2 lane per Kairouan 6.8 1 7.5 2 8,735 direction) (South) Urban section 3.4 2 14 2 Strengthening 9,059 Upgrade (2 lane per Main Section 18.6 1 7.5 2 RR133 direction) By-pass 2.5 1 7.5 2 8,052 Strengthening Zaghouan Upgrade (2 lane per N19 13.5 1 7.5 2 5,051 direction) Non- Non- Non- New construction (4 New express 30.2 Non-existent existent existent existent lane per direction) New bypass – Tataouine Non- Non- Non- New construction (2 Tataouine – 3.7 Non-existent corridor existent existent existent lane per direction) N19 Bir Lahmar and Ghomaesassen 7.3 2 15 2 3,776 Strengthening – new corridor ix. The project costs used for the evaluation is the financial cost of the whole project, by sections, as established in the cost estimates of the preliminary designs. At completion, the construction costs are updated based on the actual expenses. The detailed comparison of construction costs is shown in Table 11. Page 30 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT x. The average maintenance costs were provided by DGPC and in particular DEER (Direction de l’Exploitation et de l’Entretien Routier) were used for the maintenance scenarios, in the case "without project", but also for the maintenance after the improvements for the "with-project" case. Table 8. Average Unit Costs for Maintenance Works item Unit Economic Cost (TND) Financial Cost (TND) Improvement / Width km 480,000 600,000 Calibration Strengthening km 240,000 300,000 Overlay Asphalt concrete t 100 120 Mill and Replace 5 cm m² 6.4 8 SBST m² 4.8 6 DBST m² 6.4 8 Pothole Patching m² 13 16 Crack Sealing m² 2 2.5 Routine Maintenance km 2,400 3,000 xi. The discount rate was 10 percent for the original scope sections and 8 percent for the restructuring sections, and the evaluation period was 20 years from base year (the year when the roadworks started). xii. The salvage value of the improvement was estimated to be 30% of initial cost. xiii. A conversion factor of 0.80 was applied to convert financial costs into economic costs to remove taxes from financial costs. Traffic Data, Vehicle Fleet Costs and Value of Time xiv. To be in coherence with the counts from MEH and those of the preliminary design, the vehicle fleet has been adopted, with six types of vehicles according to the statistics and the classification of MEH (the absence of medium and heavy trucks). Table 9 presents costs and main characteristics of each vehicle. xv. At appraisal, the value of time has been estimated based on an average salary of 500 TND/month, meaning an hourly salary of TND 2.7. This base salary has been adjusted by a coefficient considering the differences of revenue between car owners and users of public transports. The non-working time was estimated at 25 percent of the value of working time. The values were proposed as follows: i) car user - working time 6.4 TND/h; ii) car user - nonworking time 1.9 TND/h, iii) bus user - working time 2.2 TND/h, iv) bus user - nonworking time 0.6 TND/h. The cargo value depends on the load, and for this reason, this value is often unavailable for the analysis. The value by ton of the cargo depends on the size of the truck, and values between 0.01 and 1 TND/h has been set as default values. The low values have been proposed because the main cargo on the project roads are agricultural goods of lower added value. At completion, the same assumption is used for comparisons focusing on roadwork cost and demand changes. Page 31 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT xvi. For the new express and the new bypass, at Approval, in the year of road opening, AADT was estimated as 5,600. It was assumed that the diversion occurs from the similar condition roads with the N19 section before the project. Table 9. Vehicle Fleet Costs and Value of Time for Economic Analysis at Approval and Completion (Cost Unit: TND) Car Van Small 2-axle Articulated Bus Truck Truck Truck Economic Unit costs New vehicle price 27,000 33,000 70,000 115,000 192,000 144,000 (TND/veh) New tire price 153 190 375 450 850 800 (TND/tire) Cost of fuel (TND/l) 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Cost of lubricant (TND/l) 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 Cost of maintenance 15 15 15 15 17 17 (TND/h) Crew Cost (TND/h) 0 7 7 6.7 8 9.5 Overheads (TND) 0 800 800 1,300 2,000 2,000 Interest Rate (%) 10 10 10 10 10 10 Working time cost 6.4 6.4 0 0 0 2.2 (TND/h) Cargo time cost (TND/h) 0 0.05 0.2 0.3 0.5 0 Usage and Loads Annual kilometer driven 23,000 40,000 45,000 70,000 86,000 75,000 (km) Annual hours driven (h) 600 1,200 1,300 1,500 2,350 1,750 Service life (years) 10 8 10 10 12 10 Percentage in private 100 0 0 0 0 0 use (%) Number of Passengers 2 1 0 0 0 30 Work-related Trips (%) 75 40 0 0 0 75 Operating Load (t) 1.2 1.5 2 7.5 28 6 ESAL factor 0 0.01 0.1 1.25 4.63 0.7 Composition (%) 51 29 7 7 5 1 xvii. Traffic data (AADT) was provided by DGPC’s Directorate of Road Use and Maintenance DEER based on the national census of 2012 at appraisal. At completion, the latest data at that time of the completion evaluation was provided through the local government. (Table 11) xviii. The traffic growth projections were based on the estimated growth of GDP and population. At completion, they were updated based on the actual traffic growth data over the project implementation period. (Table 11) Page 32 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT Road Safety xix. The baseline of road crash fatalities was calculated using crash fatalities and VKT data for 2008-2012, provided by MEH DEER from the national statistics. The targets are calculated as 50 percent of the projected, without the project, which is consistent with the target of the global Decade of Action on Road Safety. xx. At completion, the most recent number of road crashes fatalities on the project roads was provided by the statistics of the National Observatory. The original target of a 50 percent reduction in fatal crashes has been achieved in terms of the road crash fatality rates (Table 10). The project reduced the road crash fatality risks on the project roads when adjusted by exposure (traffic). However, to achieve high performing country’s level safety like the OECD (e.g., road crash fatality rate from 0.26 to 1.10)37, further road safety interventions such as good delineations and speed management should be considered. A potential variation may exist between the observed number of road crashes at completion and the estimate employed in the appraisal methodology. xxi. The average road crash costs for Tunisa were also calculated based on the same data source of the road crash fatalities as follows: Fatal crash is 70,000 TND, Injury crash is 14,000 TND, and Damage only crash is 5,000 TND. Table 10. Fatal Road Crash Number and Rate Comparison of Approval and Completion Type of road Tataouine Analysis RN12 RN4 RR133 crashes corridor Number of Baseline 12.8 per year fatal crash (based on 5.4 per year (27) 4.8 per year (24) N/A (64) fatalities 2008-2012) Target at 2.4 per year 6.4 per year 2.7 per year N/A Approval Completion 2.3 per year 5.3 per year 5.3 per year (based on No data (16) (16) 2020-2022) (7) Road crash Approval fatality (based on 5.327 4.048 6.033 N/A (100 million 2008-2012) vehicle Target at 2.664 2.024 3.017 N/A kilometer Approval travelled) Completion 2.363 (based on (Estimated 1.452 2.222 2.414 2020-2022) average of the other 3 sections) Results of the Economic Analysis xxii. The main roadworks for RN4, RN12, and RR133 were pavement strengthen and upgrading from single lane for both directions to dual lanes for both directions. By-pass Kairouan North (RN12) was a new construction. Sousse Interchange (RN12) was newly created. In the Tataouine corridor, road widening, pavement strengthen, and new 37 International Road Safety Comparisons—Annual | Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/international_road_safety_comparisons Page 33 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT constructions (express and bypass) were conducted. Road surface condition (IRI)38 before the project was a range from 4.0 to 5.0. xxiii. Because of the variety of situations found, the project roads were broken down into sections, according to traffic and technical characteristics. All project roads include sections with comparatively lower traffic, improved as part of the project to provide homogenous service level on the itinerary. The detailed road characteristics are shown in Table 11. xxiv. The quantified benefits computed by HDM-4 comprise savings in vehicle operating costs, travel time costs, road maintenance costs due to the road improvements, and road-related traffic deaths. A reduction in costs of CO2 emissions with the project was also quantified but not included in economic benefits at Approval. Thus, to be consistent, the economic benefits of a CO2 emission reduction was not included at completion. xxv. At completion stage, the economic analysis is conducted for the same roads for which the economic analysis was conducted at the Approval by HDM-4, following the same assumptions at each stage for respective road sections, except for a) modest revisions on road length. Actual costs (roadworks cost and maintenance cost) and the traffic volume and growth rate, and the road crash (accident) rate, based on the TRTCP 39 and the most updated information available at the time of completion. xxvi. Table 11 provides comparison of economic analysis results of the Approval stage and the completion stage, which include Net Present Value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR). The comparison indicates that both NPV and IRR are 693.1 TND million and 30.4 percent for the original scope (RN4+RN12+RR133), which are better than the evaluations at the appraisal stage. The changes in NPV and IRR values at the completion stage are likely to be attributed to an increase in the project costs, a decrease in the road lengths, an increase in traffic volume in the year of road opening, a conservative traffic growth rate in the future, and delays in the constructions at completion stage. xxvii. For the additional section (Tataouine corridor), NPV and IRR are 457.8 TND million and 22.7 percent, which are slightly higher than the results at the time of Approval in 2019. The changes are likely to be attributed to an increase in traffic volume40 on the project roads due to the change in the year of road opening at completion stage. Table 11 Comparison of Appraisal and Completion-stage Economic Analysis (Cost Unit: TND) Road Name RN4 RN12 RR133 Total (RN4+RN12+RR133) Analysis Approval Completion Approval Completion Approval Completion Approval Completion stage Length (km) 65 64.9 56 50.4 24.5 24 145.5 139 [-4%] Est./ Actual 180 194.8 139 189.7 50 67 369 452 [+22%] Financial 38 International Roughness Index. An analytical measure of the roughness of a road’s surface and thereby of its maintenance state 39 General Directorate of Roads and Bridges, Borrower ICR, December 2024 40 Annual Average Daily Traffic. Calculated as the total traffic on a given road over a full year, divided by 365 days. Page 34 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT Road Name RN4 RN12 RR133 Total (RN4+RN12+RR133) Cost (TND million) Cost per km 2,769 3,002 2,482 3,764 2,041 2,792 3,114 (TND 2,536 [+23%] thousand) Maintenance cost -0.08 -0.24 -0.01 -0.63 +0.05 -0.02 - - changes* (TND million) Base year 2016 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 (construction - - start) Road 2018 2020 2017 2021 2017 2020 - - opening year Traffic 41,647 71,391 73,601 89,334 30,488 43,020 (AADT) in 20,3745 [+ 145,736 the year of 40%] road opening Average [2013- [2012- [2013- [2012- [2013- [2012- annual traffic 2016] 2017] 2016] 2017] 1.7/- 2016] 2017] growth rate 4.0/4.8 4.2/1.9 4.0/4.8 7.3 5.5/5.0 1.4/6.3 (%)** [2016- [2017- [2016- [2017- [2016- [2017- 2026] 2023] 2026] 2023] 2026] 2023] - - 4.6/5.5 1.9/1.6 4.6/5.5 9.6/3.4 5.0/4.5 3.0/2.9 [2026 [2023 [2026 [2023 [2026 [2023 onwards] onwards] onwards] onwards] onwards] onwards] 4.1/5.0 3.0/1.6 4.1/5.0 4.3/3.4 4.5/4.0 3.0/2.9 NPV (TND 188.4 63.6 Million) 42.9 [0.5 194.0 [170.4 - 380.98 [39.7 - 118.15 294.9 693.1 [sensitivity - 92.8] 398.9] 90.3] analysis] IRR (%) 15.3 42.4 52.2 [sensitivity [10.1 - 25.9 [30.9 - 32.1 [40.1 - 41.4 29.5 30.4 analysis at 20.7] 60.5] 63.2] approval] NPV / Cost 0.35 2.2 [1.25 1.9 [1.66 [0.01 - 1.81 3.61 3.36 1.22 2.80 - 4.0] - 3.72] 0.75] GHG émission changes + 0.215 + 0.171 - 0.057 + 0.516 + 0.138 + 0.157 + 0.296 + 0.845 (million ton) [difference] *to "without project" during the evaluation period of 20 years **Traffic growth rate shown as (Cars and Vans)/(Trucks and Bus) or (all types of vehicles) ***In the total column: [change from Approval] Page 35 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT Road Name Tataouine corridor (Restructuring) Analysis stage Approval Completion Length (km) 54.7 54.7 Est./ Actual Financial 119.4 155.1 [+30%] Cost (TND million) Cost per km (TND 2,183 2,835 thousand) Maintenance cost N/A + 0.55 changes*(TND million) Base year 2019 2019 (construction start) Road opening year 2021 2025 Traffic (AADT) in the 15,118 22,411 [+48%] year of road opening Average annual traffic [2020-2030] 5.1 [2013-2022] 1.52 growth rate (%) [2030 onwards] 4.6 [2022-2023] 4.8/7.9 [2023 onwards] 3.1/2.6 NPV (TND Million) 88.3 [N/A] 247.8 [sensitivity analysis] IRR (%)[sensitivity 14.7 [>8%] 22.7 analysis] NPV / Cost N/A 2.45 GHG émission N/A (- 6.3 km per - 0.113 changes* (million ton) 1,000 VKT) * to "without project" during the evaluation period of 20 years Page 36 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS Borrower Comments and Task team’s responses below: I. DGPC mentioned that the Bizerte and Kef regions had no project interventions. While this is correct, the impact analysis showed positive impacts in both regions. As such, the text has been retained. II. DGPC highlighted that the suspension has led to a significant drop in the execution of works on the initial three corridors due to the lack of clarity on the continuation of financing by the World Bank for the project. III. DGPC indicated that “Prior to the third incident, the DGPC was not aware of the incident reporting timeline.” IV. DGPC suggested an improved rating for the overall project outcome. After carefully review based on Bank ICR Guidance, the project outcome rating has been retained without any change. V. DGPC proposed an improved rating for M&E and Financial Management and mentioned issues with unaudited Interim Financial Reports (IFRs). The ratings in the ICR are based on project performance and are in line with the ratings in the Bank’s periodic Implementation Status Reports. As such the ratings and explanations will be retained without any change. No comments were received from the Co-financier. Page 37 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT ANNEX 6. LIST OF SUPPORING DOCUMENTS This Implementation Completion and Results (ICR) report is based on a desk review that included: I. An in-country mission held in November 2024, during which the ICR mission members met current PIU, DGPC and MEH staff, Contractor, Beneficiaries and engineering company representatives. The mission involved site visits also. II. Interviews with WBG staff involved in project preparation and supervision, including the project's four task team leaders. III. Review of project documents and supporting external literature (see bibliography). Bibliography Publicly available documents 1. World Bank. 2012. Tunisia - Interim Strategy Note for the Period FY13-14. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://documentsinternal.worldbank.org/search/16433764 2. World Bank. 2023. Tunisia - Country Partnership Framework for the Period FY23-FY27. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. https://documentsinternal.worldbank.org/search/34010373 3. World Bank Group. 2023. Tunisia - Country Climate and Development Report. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. https://documentsinternal.worldbank.org/search/34203071 4. World Bank. 2015. Tunisia - Road Transport Corridors Project. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. https://documentsinternal.worldbank.org/search/24711018 Unpublished Documents 1. General Directorate of Roads and Bridges, Borrower ICR, December 2024 2. Working version of MENA Regional Strategy. 3. GoT’s Five-year Development Plan (2023-2025). 4. National Road Safety Strategy (2023-2034). 5. World Bank. 2023. Unveiling Economic Outcomes of the Tunisia Road Transport Corridor Project: Lessons Learned. Working Version. 6. Economics - Transport & Traffic Engineering (ETIC). 2024. Tunisia Road Transport Corridor Project Completion Report. General Directorate of Bridges and Roads Unit of Management by Objectives for monitoring the implementation of projects cofinanced by the World Bank. 7. Working version of PPSD Corridor Economic RN13 Composantes Infrastructures. 8. World Bank. 2015. Tunisia Economic Development Corridor Project. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. WBG project-specific documents 1. Electronic correspondence between the WBG and the Borrower. 2. World Bank Aide-Memoires. 3. World Bank Implementation and Supervision Reports. 4. World Bank Loan Agreements. 5. World Bank Management Letters. 6. World Bank Restructuring Papers. Page 38 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT ANNEX 7. PROJECT MAP Page 39 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT ANNEX 8. PROJECT PHOTOGRAPHS RN 12 (before) RN12 (after) RN 4 (before) RN 4 (after) Page 40 The World Bank TN-Road Transport Corridors (P146502) ICR DOCUMENT RR 133 (before) RR 133 (after) Tataouine corridor (before) Tataouine corridor (after) Page 41