Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00005461 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT (IDA-55000, IBRD-88510, IDA-70540) ON A CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 3.1 MILLION (US$4.8 MILLION EQUIVALENT) LOAN IN THE AMOUNT OF EUR 20.1 MILLION (US$25 MILLION EQUIVALENT) CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF EUR 9 MILLION (US$10 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF CONGO FOR THE CG-STATISTICS CAPACITY BUILDING PROJECT MARCH 28, 2024 Poverty and Equity Global Practice Western and Central Africa Region CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Exchange Rate Effective September 30, 2023 Currency Unit = CFA Francs (CFAF) CFAF 618 = US$1 US$1 = SDR 0.76 FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30 Regional Vice President: Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Cheick Fantamady Kante Regional Director: Abebe Adugna Dadi Practice Manager: Johan A. Mistiaen Task Team Leader(s): Mervy Ever Viboudoulou Vilpoux ICR Main Contributor: Melat Assefa Asfaw, Mervy Ever Viboudoulou Vilpoux ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AfDB African Development Bank AF Additional Financing AFRISTAT Economic and Statistical Observatory of Sub-Saharan Africa (Observatoire Economique et Statistique d’Afrique Subsharienne) CAPI Computer Aided Personal Interview CASP Center for Statistics Application and Planning (Centre d’Application de la Statistique et de la Planification) COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease 2019 CPI Consumer Price Index CPS Country Partnership Strategy DEP Studies and Planning Department (Direction des Etudes et de Planification) E&S Environmental and Social EA Environmental Assessment ECOM Congolese Household Survey (Enquête Congolaise Auprès des Ménages) EHCVM Enquête Harmonisée sur les Conditions de Vie des Ménages ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework FA Financing Agreement FM Financial Management GDP Gross Domestic Product HCS High Commission of Statistics HFPS High-Frequency Phone Surveys HISWACA Harmonizing and Improving Statistics in West and Central Africa HR Human Resources ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report ICT Information and Communication Technology INS National Institute of Statistics (Institut National des Statistiques) ISM Implementation Supervision Mission ISR Implementation Status and Results Report M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MTR Midterm Review NDP National Development Plan NSDS National Strategy for the Development of Statistics NSS National System of Statistics PAD Project Appraisal Document PBP Performance-Based Payment PDO Project Development Objective PIU Project Implementing Unit PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PSC Project Steering Committee REGEC General Congolese Enterprise Census (Recensement Général des Entreprises du Congo) RGPH-5 Fifth Population and Housing Census (Cinquième Recensement Général de la Population et de l’Habitation) RPF Resettlement Policy Framework SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic SOP Series of Projects STG Statistics Thematic Group STSP Senior Technicians of Statistics and Planning TA Technical Assistance TOC Theory of Change TOR Terms of Reference TSP Technicians of Statistics and Planning TTL Task Team Leader UNFPA United Nations Population Fund UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNSD United Nations Statistics Division WAEMU West African Economic and Monetary Union TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET .......................................................................................................................... 1 I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 5 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL .........................................................................................................5 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION ..............................................................10 II. OUTCOME .................................................................................................................... 16 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ............................................................................................................16 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ......................................................................................17 C. EFFICIENCY ...........................................................................................................................21 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING ....................................................................24 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY)............................................................................25 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 26 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ...................................................................................26 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION .............................................................................27 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 29 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ............................................................29 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE .....................................................30 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ...........................................................................................................30 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .......................................................................................31 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................. 32 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 35 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ......................... 53 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 55 ANNEX 4. THEORY OF CHANGE AFTER RESTRUCTURINGS ..................................................... 56 ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ... 57 ANNEX 6. MAP .................................................................................................................... 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name P133731 CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project Country Financing Instrument Congo, Republic of Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Not Required (C) Partial Assessment (B) Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency Ministry of Economy and Finance National institute of Statistics Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The objectives of the project are to (i) strengthen the National Statistical System in the production and, dissemination of timely and robust statistics relevant for policies and decision making, and (ii) promote the demand for statistical information. Revised PDO The objectives of the project are to: (i) strengthen the NSS in the production and dissemination of quality statistics relevant forpolicies and decision making; and, (ii) promote the demand for statistical information. Page 1 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) FINANCING Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing 4,800,000 4,280,782 3,846,496 IDA-55000 25,000,000 25,000,000 22,396,276 IBRD-88510 10,000,000 10,000,000 9,546,882 IDA-70540 Total 39,800,000 39,280,782 35,789,654 Non-World Bank Financing 0 0 0 Borrower/Recipient 28,200,000 0 0 Total 28,200,000 0 0 Total Project Cost 68,000,000 39,280,782 35,789,653 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing 09-Jun-2014 08-Apr-2015 24-Sep-2018 15-Jun-2019 30-Sep-2023 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 03-Feb-2017 .91 Other Change(s) 14-Apr-2021 19.08 Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Implementation Schedule KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Satisfactory Satisfactory High Page 2 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 26-Nov-2014 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory 0 02 30-Jun-2015 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory .34 03 10-Feb-2016 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory .37 04 07-Jan-2017 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory .89 05 17-Oct-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 3.92 06 06-Feb-2018 Satisfactory Satisfactory 5.62 07 14-Nov-2018 Satisfactory Satisfactory 7.30 08 17-Jun-2019 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 9.58 09 13-Feb-2020 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 11.79 10 02-Oct-2020 Satisfactory Satisfactory 16.89 11 17-May-2021 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 19.89 12 19-Nov-2021 Satisfactory Satisfactory 21.57 13 08-Jun-2022 Satisfactory Satisfactory 23.38 14 13-Dec-2022 Satisfactory Satisfactory 27.13 15 30-Jun-2023 Satisfactory Satisfactory 35.64 SECTORS AND THEMES Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%) Public Administration 100 Central Government (Central Agencies) 100 Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Page 3 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) Private Sector Development 100 Jobs 100 Public Sector Management 100 Public Administration 28 Administrative and Civil Service Reform 28 Data Development and Capacity Building 72 Data production, accessibility and use 72 ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Eustache Ouayoro Cheick Fantamady Kante Director: Marcelo Giugale Abebe Adugna Dadi Practice Manager: Albert G. Zeufack Johan A. Mistiaen Mervy Ever Viboudoulou Task Team Leader(s): Franck M. Adoho Vilpoux ICR Contributing Author: Melat Assefa Asfaw Page 4 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Country Context 1. The Republic of Congo is a small open developing economy in Central Africa highly endowed with natural resources. At the time of the appraisal, Republic of Congo was a lower-middle-income country with a population of 4.9 1 million and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of US$ 2,066 (2005, current US$). The country is endowed with significant hydrocarbon reserves - the 4th largest proven oil reserves and the 5th largest proven natural gas reserves in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) – as well as mining ores, such as iron, potash, and magnesium. High oil prices, Government investments in infrastructure and the social sector, and the return of socio-political stability supported economic growth between 2000 and 2014. The standard of living steadily improved with a 35 percent increase in GDP per capita, and the share of the extreme poor (measured as below US$1.90 purchasing power parity (PPP) a day) declined from 53.4 percent in 2005 to 38.2 percent in 2011. However, the country’s growth performance was still low compared to countries with similar levels of natural resources, and the country fell short of the target growth rate needed to achieve the 2025 Sustainable Development Goals. The economy grew at an average annual rate of 4 percent, compared to the projected growth rate of 8.5 percent set forth in the country’s National Development Plan (NDP) due to fluctuations in global oil prices and production levels. 2. Weaknesses in the ROC’s statistical system undermined timely economic and social assessments. Republic of Congo’s statistical system was one of the weakest in SSA region – the country’s score for statistical capacity 2 was only 50 out of 100, which put the country at 38th in the region3. This relatively poor score reflected the inability of the statistical system to provide reliable, timely, and accurate data over time for effective and accurate assessment of the social and economic situations as well as monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of development programs. Furthermore, the coverage was far from meeting the basic requirements for an operational and effective statistical system. The overall score also showed that on various quality dimensions 4 performance had been insufficient, and there were concerns about methodological inadequacies underlying data production and the accountability and efficiency of resource utilization (e.g., surveys are not coordinated). Sectoral and Institutional Context and National Priorities 3. At the time of appraisal, the Congolese National System of Statistics (NSS) was highly decentralized. It was composed of (a) the High Commission of Statistics (HCS), (b) the National Institute of Statistics (Institut National des Statistiques, INS); (c) sectoral statistical departments (line ministries statistical departments are usually referred to as Studies and Planning Departments [Direction des Etudes et de Planification, DEPs]), (d) 1 World Bank population estimates, 2014 2 The Statistical Capacity Score is calculated on an annual basis by the World Bank. The indicator is based on a framework that generally uses information publicly available for most countries to assess three aspects of statistical capacity (statistical practices, collection activities, and data availability) against appropriate benchmarks. A score for each aspect is derived, and an overall score is calculated by combining the scores for the three aspects, giving equal weight to each. The score is scaled to provide a value between 0 and 100; a score of 100 indicates that the country meets all the benchmarks in all three aspects of statistical capacity. More information can be found at http://datatopics.worldbank.org/statisticalcapacity/SCIdashboard.aspx. 3 Below the sub-Saharan Africa average of 59. World Bank Bulletin Board on Statistical Capacity (BBSC), 4 Timeliness, relevance, accuracy, and coherence. Page 5 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) academic institutions, and (e) various units of the Bank of Central African States. A peer review of the Congolese NSS was conducted in 2011 by the Statistical Offices of Benin and the Democratic Republic of Congo, PARIS21, Economic and Statistical Observatory of Sub-Saharan Africa (Observatoire Economique et Statistique d’Afrique Subsharienne, AFRISTAT), and the Republic of Congo PRSP Unit. The review looked at NSS’s governance, organization, strategic planning, service to users, funding, and sustainability. It found that the major strengths of the Congolese system were the commitment of the Government to statistics and the elaboration of the first National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS) for 2013–2017, supported by international partners. The weaknesses primarily related to poor coordination of the NSS and the lack of human resources (HR) throughout the NSS, which made it very difficult to produce reliable statistics. 4. The project carried out an in-depth NSS HR institutional capacity assessment focusing on the INS and CASP. This assessment identified gaps consistent with those outlined in the NSDS and highlighted the need to enhance staffing and HR policies, refine management and incentive structures at the INS, and bolster knowledge and learning areas. 5. At the time of appraisal, the INS did not fully exercise its role as NSS coordinator, and the Congolese NSS lacked qualified staff to support production and dissemination of the statistical products needed for policy making. The Government initiated reforms to update the NSS, guided by the Statistical Law No. 8-2009 enacted on October 28, 2009. Although a decree (2010-805) was issued in December 2010 to establish the INS, the lack of implementation of the statistical law—particularly the absence of an employment agreement for INS staff and a funding mechanism for statistical activities—had resulted in the INS still functioning as a typical directorate rather than as an independent entity. It had no HR policies to support management in attracting, retaining, and motivating qualified staff and inadequate compensation and benefits packages made it difficult for management to attract and retain the best people, and the supply of certified statisticians to fill NSS technical positions was very low. The Center for Statistics Application and Planning (Centre d’Application Statistique et de Planification, CASP) was the only local school that trained statisticians, but its curriculum and infrastructure did not meet the needs of Congolese employers, public or private. Some ministries lacked functional statistical units either because the laws were not being enforced or there was a shortage of qualified people. DEPs depended on their line minister, their budgets were underfunded, NSS statistical products did not meet the demand, and the methodologies underlying data production were inadequate. 6. At appraisal, all strategic statistics for development planning were outdated and presented a significant risk of inaccuracy. The latest household survey at the time (Congolese Household Survey [Enquête Congolaise Auprès des Ménages, ECOM]) took place in 2011. Moreover, the INS had not produced a complete set of national accounts since 2009. As a result, national account statistics from recent years were projections of the non-oil sector and realization of the oil sector. The most recent conclusive census was held in the Republic of Congo more than 20 years ago, and the results of the census from 10 years ago were not fully released. The financial statistics needed improvement to render it more reliable to support country's macroeconomic framework and reform action plan. 7. The 2012–2016 Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) prioritized political and economic governance, diversification of the economy, infrastructure development, social inclusion, and equity. The NDP 2012-2016 focused on diversifying the economy to boost growth through integrated multisectoral strategies around key clusters, including agriculture, agro-industry, hydrocarbons, mining, wood and processing industries, construction, tourism, and financial services. The NDP also included statistical insights related to macroeconomic projections, budget allocations, and social implications providing growth scenarios, fiscal sustainability indicators, and analyses the potential impact on poverty reduction and employment. The project supported this Governments agenda by Page 6 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) aiming to strengthen production and dissemination of quality statistics for policy decision making and to promote the demand for statistical information. Rationale for World Bank Assistance 8. In the 2010s, the Republic of Congo's significant oil revenues prompted development partners, including the World Bank, to reduce their development financing. As a result, the Government provided counterpart – funding to all development projects within the country. For instance, during the 2010-2012 Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) (Report No. 48404-CG), the World Bank envisioned its role as primarily a "catalyst" for change. The strategy was to utilize its relatively limited funds for the Republic of Congo to encourage the country to channel its substantial oil wealth towards economic transformation and efforts to alleviate poverty. This financing strategy was extended to the World Bank’s 2013–16 CPS (Report No. 71713-CG). 9. The project was aligned with the World Bank’s 2013–16 CPS, which gave priority to the production of quality statistics to inform the transformation of the country and support its objective to become an emerging economy. This type of assistance was the first of its kind in the country. However, the World Bank had a long experience with similar projects in the region mainly through its Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund (SRF- CF) Trust Fund (TF071146) and could leverage its experience and knowledge in the sector to engage with the Government of the Republic of Congo. Theory of Change (Results Chain) 10. The ICR team retrofitted the Theory of Change (TOC) with activities, outputs and outcomes (see Figure 1 and Figure 4.1) 5. For this Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR), two TOCs were constructed ex post (one at appraisal and the other after restructuring) and retrofitted from the PAD, the project Results Framework, and the Financing Agreements (FAs). They present project activities, expected intermediate and higher-level outputs, and how these relate to the Project Development Objectives (PDOs). Activities under Component 3, Project Management are not reflected on the TOC’s, however they had an overall impact on all outcomes and contributed to the attainment of the PDO. Figure 4.1 in annex 4 illustrates the results chain at appraisal. It was initially assumed that: (i) the Government will provide counterpart financing for the project, and (ii) the Government will construct a building for the INS using a separate budget. 11. The figure 1 below presents the TOC after restructuring which aimed to eliminate all bottlenecks including the two assumptions that were mentioned above that failed to materialize and were key during the project’s implementation. 12. Other expectations and critical assumptions for the achievement of the outcomes and considered for the duration of the project for both TOCs are the following: (a) Enhanced HR capacity is central to the sustainability of the project. (b) Component 1 laid the basis for a performing statistical system, while Component 2 developed quality statistics through data production using modern and international standards. 5According to the Operations Policy and Country Services guidelines, including the TOC became mandatory for PADs as of May 2018. The project was approved by the World Bank’s Board of Directors on June 9, 2014. Page 7 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) (c) Project focus on the INS and CASP will benefit the overall development of the NSS. (d) Key data will be produced by the NSS staff with TA from international experts. (e) Smooth project management will contribute strongly to the attainment of the PDO. Figure 1. TOC after Restructuring Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 13. The PDOs of the project were to (i) strengthen the National Statistical System in the production, dissemination of timely and robust statistics relevant for policies and decision-making, and (ii) promote demand for statistical information. 14. The main beneficiaries of the project were the producers and users of data in the Republic of Congo, including the INS and the ministries in charge of finance, trade, agriculture, industries, employment, health, education, and gender; decision-makers and planners; researchers and academia; the general public; nongovernmental organizations; and the private sector as well as international organizations, notably development partners. Page 8 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 15. The key expected outcomes and outcome indicators according to the PDO statement are as follows. Annex 1 describes the details of the project’s Results Framework and key project outputs. • Outcome 1: To strengthen the National Statistical System in the production of timely and robust statistics relevant for policies and decision making. • Outcome 2: To strengthen the National Statistical System in the dissemination of timely and robust statistics relevant for policies and decision making. • Outcome 3: To promote the demand for statistical information. 16. The key PDO indicators are as follows. The project’s intermediate indicators are described in Annex 1. (a) Statistical Capacity Score (Percentage) (b) Proportion of statistical publications compiled and published following international standards as agreed by the NSS (Percentage) (c) Rate of statistical output readily available to users through the open data portal (Percentage) (d) Number of quote of statistics in the media (Number) (e) User Satisfaction Index 6 (Number). Components 17. Component 1. Institutional Development: Human Resources, Organizational Structure and Infrastructure (US$6.6 million equivalent at appraisal, US$13.1 million at project closing). This component aimed to implement a program of activities designed to improve the organizational structure of the NSS, carry out a program of activities to strengthen the capacity of the NSS to attract and retain qualified staff, and upgrade the NSS statistical information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure and data management systems. Key activities included (a) the institutional assessment of the NSS; (b) drafting of protocols, guidelines, and standard methodologies to enhance quality and efficiency in data production, management, and dissemination; (c) review of the statistical training curricula of the CASP; (d) HR development in the INS and CASP through, among others, providing scholarship to students to study statistics in regional statistics schools; 7 and (e) upgrading of infrastructure and equipment at the INS and CASP. 18. Component 2. Data Production, Dissemination, and Use of Statistics (US$21.4 million equivalent at appraisal, US$22.7 million at project closing). This component aimed to support demographic and social statistics, including the census cartography work of the Fifth Population and Housing Census (Cinquième Recensement Général de la Population et de l’Habitation, RGPH-5); vital statistics and migrations; human development statistics 6 The User Satisfaction Index is calculated by combining users’ perception of coverage, reliability, published statistical analysis, and periodicity. The source is a beneficiary perception survey. 7 There are three regional schools: Ecole Nationale Supérieure de la Statistique et d’Économie Appliquée (ENSAE) of Abidjan, Institut Sous- régionale de la Statistique et d’Économie Appliquée (ISSEA) of Yaoundé, and Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l’Analyse Economique (ENSAE) of Dakar. Competitive exams are organized every year by the Centre d’Appui aux Ecoles de Statistique Africaines (CAPESA- ENSAE Paris). Page 9 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) including in education, health, and employment; household living conditions statistics (Enquête Harmonisée sur les Conditions de Vie des Ménages, EHCVM); poverty and inequality, economic, and financial statistics; price statistics; external trade statistics; balance of payments data; government finances and public sector debt statistics; agriculture statistics; forestry statistics; and mining, gas, and oil statistics. The dissemination and use of statistical information included linking of statistical output to the development programs monitoring systems, promotion of the use of data through knowledge products, development and activation of a comprehensive information dissemination and micro-data access policy, creation of an open data portal, promotion of statistics literacy, and archiving. The abovementioned activities included different types of capacity-building activities including on-the- job trainings, experience-sharing sessions, and training of trainers for the INS and NSS staff. 19. Component 3. Project Management (US$5 million equivalent at appraisal, US$7.2 million at project closing). This component aimed to support the project operating costs to ensure that the INS Project Implementing Unit (PIU) implements the project effectively and timely. The INS, the main executing agency of the NSDS, was responsible for coordination. B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION 20. The parent project was a US$33 million project, jointly financed by International Development Association (IDA) credit in the amount of SDR 3.1 million (US$4.8 million equivalent) and the Government counterpart funding in the amount of US$28.2 million equivalent. It was approved by the World Bank Board of Executive Directors on June 9, 2014; the Financial Agreement (FA) was signed on July 7, 2014; and the project became effective on April 8, 2015. The project was planned to be closed on June 15, 2019, but the actual project closing date was moved to September 30, 2023. During the course of the project, three changes were implemented. 21. The first change was an additional financing (AF) to the project in the form of an International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) loan of US$25 million equivalent. It was approved by the World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors on April 5, 2018; signed on June 21, 2018; and declared effective on May 9, 2019. Key changes in this first AF (AF1) were (a) revising the PDO, (b) extending the project’s closing date by 22 months (from June 15, 2019, to April 30, 2021), (c) adding new activities, (d) revising the Results Framework, (e) revising the total amount of counterpart funding, and (f) increasing the percentage of expenditures to be financed under the original credit to 100 percent. 22. The project underwent a Level 2 restructuring that was approved by the World Bank Regional Vice President on April 14, 2021, and the amendment to the Loan Agreement was signed on April 29, 2021. This restructuring aimed to (a) extend the project closing date by 29 months from April 30, 2021, to September 30, 2023; (b) cancel activities that do not contribute to achieve the PDO; and (c) reallocate resources among project components and disbursement categories induced by the cancellation of the main activity under the performance- based payment (PBP). 23. The second AF (AF2) was in the form of an IDA credit of US$10 million equivalent (€9 million) and was approved by the World Bank Board of Executive Directors on March 9, 2022. The FA was signed on March 30, 2022, and declared effective on June 27, 2022. Page 10 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets 24. Under the AF1, the PDO wording was changed from “to (i) strengthen the National Statistical System in the production and dissemination of timely and robust statistics relevant for policies and decision making, and (ii) promote demand for statistical information” to “to (i) strengthen the National Statistical System in the production and dissemination of quality statistics relevant for policies and decision making, and (ii) promote the demand for statistical information.” Therefore, the outcome targets will be as follows: • Revised Outcome 1: To strengthen the National Statistical System in the production of quality statistics relevant for policies and decision making. • Revised Outcome 2: To strengthen the National Statistical System in the dissemination of quality statistics relevant for policies and decision making. • Revised Outcome 3: To promote the demand for statistical information. Revised PDO Indicators 25. The project’s PDO indicators were revised throughout the project during the AF1, the restructuring and AF2. Table 1 shows in detail the changes that were made to the Results Framework. Table 1. PDO Indicator Changes under Each AF and Restructuring PDO Indicators Parent Project AF1 Project Restructuring and AF2 1 Statistical Capacity Score (Percentage). Revised (End target reduced from 70 Deleted (Baseline: 50, End target 70) to 60) 2 Proportion of statistical outputs (including Revised to Share of statistical Unchanged press releases) compiled and published products completed and published by according to the international standard the INS following international accepted by the NSS. (Percentage). standards (Percentage). (Baseline 25, (Baseline: 25, End target: 70) End target: 70) 3 Rate of statistical results readily available Revised to Share of statistical output Unchanged to users through the Open Data Portal available to users through the open (Percentage). (Baseline: 0, End target: 60) data portal (Percentage). (Baseline: 0, End target: 60) 4 Number of quote of statistics in the media Deleted (Number). (Baseline: 5, End target: 25) 5 User Satisfaction Index (Number). Unchanged Unchanged (Baseline: 0, End target: 75) 6 — Number of NSS staff with formal Unchanged degrees in statistics, informatics, or demography (Number). (Baseline: 40, End target: 60) 7 — Annual growth rate of the number of Deleted visits to the INS website (Percentage). (Baseline: 0, End target: 8) Page 11 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) PDO Indicators Parent Project AF1 Project Restructuring and AF2 8 — Number of UNSD Minimum List gender indicators available using data collected within the past 5 years (Number). (Baseline: 0, End target: 35) Note: UNSD = United Nations Statistics Division. Revised Components 26. Under the AF1, two new activities were introduced. Under Component 1, construction of the INS office facilities for the INS and the CASP and office rent were introduced, while under Component 2, the following four activities were introduced: (i) implementation of a general Congolese enterprise census (recensement général des entreprises du Congo, REGEC), (ii) TA to support the Macroeconomic Framework Committee, (iii) support for the elaboration of the NDP (2022–2026), and (iv) the introduction of a PBP for the INS staff. 27. Some activities under Components 1 and 2 were discontinued or transferred. Specifically, the technical mentorship program under Subcomponent 1.2 HR development, and activities related to the design and implementation of an Information System Strategic Plan and the constitution of an Information Systems Advisory Group under Subcomponent 1.3 were canceled. Under Subcomponent 2.1, data production of education and health statistics was cancelled and transferred to sectoral specific World Bank projects. 28. Additional changes were introduced under the restructuring of the project. High-frequency phone surveys (HFPS) were added under Subcomponent 2.1, while there was some reduction in the activities under Subcomponent 1.2, HR development including the implementation of the training program for the NSS staff (continuing education/training), and under Subcomponent 2.1, data production and management, whereas vital statistics production was canceled, support to the enumeration of the population census was reduced, and finally the PBP activity under Subcomponent 2.3 was canceled. 29. There were no changes in components under the AF2. All budget allocation changes throughout the project’s duration are reflected under annex 3 of this ICR. Other Changes 30. Under the AF1, the sources of funds were an IBRD loan while the initial project was an IDA credit. Component 1's name was changed from “Institutional Development, Human Resources and Organizational Structure” to “Improving the Institutional and Organizational Framework of the NSS”. 31. The AF1 increased the scope of activities by introducing the construction of a new INS/CASP building complex and financing of the enterprise census. The former caused a change in the project’s Environmental Assessment (EA) category from C to partial assessment, triggering the safeguards policies OP/BP 4.01 (Environmental Assessment), OP/BP 4.11 (Physical Cultural Resources), and OP/BP 4.12 (Involuntary Resettlement). 32. The restructuring of the project did not change the scope of activities. The total project amount was US$32.9 million due to the cancelling of US$517,347.37 under the initial project as undisbursed balance at closing. Page 12 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) The restructuring also reallocated the budget between disbursement categories where some funds were reallocated to project management and other activities which demanded extra financing due to the project closing date extension. 33. Under the AF2, there were no changes in component activities except for an increase in the budget allocation to some subcomponents. Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change First Additional Financing (AF1) 34. At the time of appraisal, the project, expenditures were initially proportionally divided between the counterpart funds (85.5 percent) and IDA resources (14.5 percent). In other words, for every US$100 spent, US$85.5 was paid with counterpart funds and US$14.5 was paid with IDA resources. The reasons behind this arrangement are described under paragraph 8 of this ICR. The first tranche of counterpart funds (US$3.6 million) was released in 2015 as part of the project effectiveness requirement. However, due to downfall of the oil price, the subsequent US$6 million tranche due in May 2016 was never released. The Government requested an amendment to the project’s FA to allow for a front-loading of IDA resources, as a short-term solution. The total amount of counterpart funding was revised to reflect the deposit of US$3.6 million made by the Government (instead of the US$28.2 million initially programmed) and remove any further counterpart funding. 35. The project's end target for the Statistics Capacity Score was lowered from 70 percent to 60 percent to reflect the project's progress more realistically. Despite the project's ratings for progress towards achievement of PDO, and overall Implementation progress being deemed Satisfactory at the time of the AF1 preparation, many of the planned statistical operations had not yet commenced. Consequently, the target was adjusted downward to align with achievable expectations. 36. The wording “timely and robust statistics” in the PDO was changed to “quality statistics.” The concept of robustness of statistics was not well defined, while data quality was clearer and more easily defined under international standards. Furthermore, the word “timely” was dropped as the project would have financed only one round of data collection, thus building the foundation for continuous, timely data production. 37. The rationale to add Subcomponent 1.3, Construction of INS office facilities for the INS and the CASP and office rent, was relevant because at the time of project preparation, the working environment at both the INS and CASP needed to improve for staff to effectively conduct high-quality data production and dissemination. At the time of project preparation, the INS staff were moved several times and did not have a permanent location. The Government had begun to demolish and reconstruct its existing building in September 2016, and the works were planned to be finalized in three years. However, the activity was stalled due to the Government’s overall financial constraint, leaving staff dispersed with no office space and little remaining furniture spread in different ministry locations. Similarly, the CASP facilities were dilapidated, with a general lack of space, lack of archiving and storage space, no designated spaces for staff and students, no separation of public spaces (training room and conference room), and no modern library, and it was difficult to adapt and modernize the old building interiors. The sanitary facilities were also very poor, and existing equipment and furniture were dilapidated. 38. PBP were introduced as an incentive for staff engaged in specific large-scale projects, in addition to their regular statistical duties. In the Republic of Congo, it was a standard practice to award a monthly premium to staff Page 13 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) participating in statistical operations, funded by the state budget for the duration of their tasks. However, when the Government's operational budget lacked the provisions for such premiums, externally financed projects encountered difficulties in moving forward. To address this, the PBP was designed as a compensation strategy that relied on a results-driven approach, as outlined in the project's operational manual. This manual defined the foundational principles, eligibility requirements, and criteria for the PBP, with the goal of ensuring that staff incentives were directly tied to the effective execution of project activities. 39. Activities under Component 1, technical mentorship program was cancelled while the rest of the HR development activities remained. This was mainly because activities including on-the-job training and the young statisticians training program required more money and had to be prioritized first. Activities related to data production of education and health statistics under Subcomponent 2.1 were transferred to other World Bank projects including the World Bank Education Sector Support Project (P152910) and the Health Sector Project (P143849) which at the time were able to accommodate these statistical activities. This decision to transfer the activities was made in response to the project's need to adapt to changing circumstances, including fiscal struggles and low HR capacity. An extension of the closing date of the parent project for 22 months was requested to make up for the delay in effectiveness, the slowdown of the activities due to the lack of counterpart funding, and the addition of the construction of the INS-CASP building complex. 40. The Results Framework was modified to reflect the revised scope of activities and accurately reflect the nature of the activities and the expected timing of delivery of the anticipated outputs. 41. Reallocation of funds between and within project components was made to ensure sufficient funding for the construction of the office building for the INS-CASP building complex and other more important activities. Project Restructuring (Post COVID-19 period) 42. The COVID-19 pandemic dealt a severe shock to the Republic of Congo and adversely affected project activities. The Government's implementation of containment measures, including lockdowns, and the ensuing disruption of the global market, led to significant delays in the execution of project activities. To address these challenges and ensure the achievement of its objectives, the project underwent a level-2 restructuring. Furthermore, it received additional support in the form of an AF2. 43. During the project restructuring, the closing date was extended by 29 months to complete the INS-CASP building complex under Component 1. This extension accommodated delays in initiating construction, such as obtaining a title deed and meeting all ES requirements. Additionally, US$3.9 million was reallocated to the component to cover increased construction cost of the INS-CASP building complex. Construction material costs were higher than initially planned because of global supply chain challenges and related delays. This reallocation was sourced from the cancellation of activities —specifically vital statistics, and the PBP—and from reducing activities in the RGPH-5 enumeration. All these activities had not yet commenced. 44. HFPS were introduced to support the Government efforts to mitigate the social and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The resources originally allocated for the PBP activities were redirected to support the HFPS. In theory, the PBP was supposed to be a means to motivate the INS teams to be fully involved in the implementation of the project activities. However, in practice, there was little enthusiasm from the INS for implementing this mechanism. The criteria for payment were too complex, and this created a great delay in implementation while most statistical activities were already being carried out. Page 14 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) 45. Vital statistics was cancelled because it was initially conceived as a pilot initiative which made discontinuation simpler. The activity’s main goal was to support the enhancement of statistical data as part of the reforms to the civil registration system in Brazzaville and was planned to be undertaken in partnership with the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) who were tasked with digitizing the civil registration system. This digitization was a critical step for the project's subsequent activities. However, the digitization did not start as planned, and the project was already under financial strain. Given these circumstances, the decision was made to cancel the project and redirect its funds to other activities that were considered more urgent and necessary at the time. 46. The allocated amount to Component 3 was increased to support the project’s operating costs and ensure that the PIU will implement the project effectively during the extension period. There was also a change in disbursement category to reflect the cancellation of the PBP activity. 47. The changes in the project had no significant implication on the TOC constructed after restructuring. Second Additional Financing (AF2) 48. AF2 aimed to close the financing gap to finalize the ongoing project activities, such as the RGPH-5, including its enumeration operation as well as its post-census activities, the EHCVM, and the scholarship program. The RGPH-5 was initially budgeted by the Government based on a previous methodology to conduct census cartography in the country. However, this methodology was changed and aimed to follow the United Nations guidelines requiring a revision of the budget. Similar is true for the EHCVM where the data collection methodology was changed from one round to two waves following the approach adopted by the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries. The scholarship program aimed to support 18 students (one female) from the previous school years to finalize their studies. During the restructuring process, the Government had committed to financing their scholarship and stipend once the project closed; however, due to the financial constraints in the country caused by, among others, the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government requested the World Bank to continue covering these scholarships until students finish their studies. 49. To reflect gender and climate change concerns, two indicators were added namely Number of UNSD Minimum List gender indicators available using data collected within the past 5 years was added as a PDO indicator aimed to be measured by the REGEC and EHCVM, and Data useful to identify people affected by climate changes are collected through population census or household budget survey was added as an intermediate indicator and was aimed to be measured through the EHCVM. The gender related indicator was included as part of the World Bank’s commitment to improve gender data gaps in client countries, while the climate indicator was included as part of the World Bank’s commitment to realizing climate co-benefits—positive climate-related impacts that are achieved as a secondary effect of projects. 50. Conversely, two PDO level-indicators were removed, namely Statistical Capacity Score and Annual growth rate of the number of hits on INS website. The Statistical Capacity Score indicator introduced in the original design, aimed to track the improvement of the capacity of the statistical system in the Republic of Congo as a result of the actions of the project. However, this indicator was removed because the World Bank discontinued measuring the Statistical Capacity Score and replaced it with the Statistical Performance Indicator (SPI) 8. Further, the project's 8 For more information about the World Bank SPI, see: https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/statistical-performance- indicators/Framework. Page 15 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) impact on the Statistical Capacity Score was limited to specific aspects of the index. For instance, within the first component of the index, which evaluates statistical practices, only two out of ten indicators—namely the national account base year and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) base year—were pertinent to the project. In the second component, which looks at data collection, just two out of five indicators were related to the project, including the population census and the Living Standards Measurement Study -type household survey. In the third component related to statistics availability, three out of ten indicators—access to water, the monetary poverty indicator, and GDP growth—were associated with the project activities. Consequently, it was concluded that the project's progress would not be accurately reflected by the Statistical Capacity Score, leading to the decision to use a more appropriate measurement. The project did not use the SPI framework because of similar reasons. In case of the second indicator, the deletion was because the INS website domain was changed over the course of the project, making it difficult to monitor the users over time. Instead, the promotion of the demand for statistics was aimed to be measured through the project’s user satisfaction surveys. II. OUTCOME A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating 51. The PDO was slightly reworded, but its objectives remained the same and were highly relevant throughout the project cycle. For example, the overall strategy of the World Bank’s CPS for the period FY13–FY16 was to support the Congolese Government to diversify its economy away from oil domination, focusing on private sector-led growth and employment generation through two pillars namely (i) competitiveness and employment and (ii) vulnerability and resilience. This project was under the second pillar which aimed to strengthen Government capacity and governance through, including among others strengthening Government statistics through this Statistics Capacity Building Project. In addition, the 2015 Performance and Learning Review (Report No. 96724-CG) extended the CPS to the end of FY17, confirming the importance of the project “to modernize government capacity to generate quality data so that interventions can be better targeted.” 52. The project remains consistent with the current Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for the Republic of Congo (FY20-24 Report No. 166461-CG). The operation supported the framework's focus area, which aimed to promote prudent macroeconomic management and enhance the efficiency of public resource management through ongoing public administration reforms and this statistics capacity-building project. It acknowledges the importance of this project’s outcomes in facilitating evidence-based decision-making by the Government. Finally, the project is highly relevant to the upcoming regional project (Additional Financing to the Harmonizing and Improving Statistics in West and Central Africa) Series of Project 2 (HISWACA-SOP 2, P180085) which is in alignment with the current CPF. 53. At the national level, the Republic of Congo had approved the NSDS for 2013–2017 which served as a guiding document for the project implementation. The statistical priorities set out in the document included the assessments of gaps, needs, and strategic objectives which were considered in the project design, and the implementation of this NSDS was important to monitor the progress of the NDP (2012–2016). The project remained relevant throughout its duration as it was important to the design and M&E of the implementation of the 2018– Page 16 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) 2022 NDP. The project’s outcomes remained relevant in providing baseline data to measure the NDP for 2022– 2026 as well as any other development activities by the Government. 54. The PDO aligned with international efforts in the statistics sector, specifically aligning with the African Union’s Second Strategy for the Harmonization of Statistics in Africa and the African Charter on Statistics. The key goals it shares with these frameworks include (a) strengthening the coordination of statistical activities across Africa, which involves organizing how statistics are gathered and used at the national, regional, and continental levels; (b) enhancing the capabilities of statistical institutions in Africa, which includes improving how these institutions work together and how they receive support from various partners; (c) building institutional capacity, which means ensuring that statistical organizations have the necessary human resources, materials, and financial backing to operate effectively and independently. The PDO was particularly focused on ensuring that statistical structures at all levels (national, regional, and continental) have enough autonomy in their operations, which is crucial for maintaining the integrity and reliability of statistical data. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome The NSS is strengthened in the production of quality statistics relevant for policies and decision making. 55. Over the course of the project, the capacity of the NSS in the Republic of Congo to produce and disseminate quality statistics relevant for policies and decision-making and promote the demand for statistical information was strengthened significantly: 56. The INS now operates from a dedicated new and modern office building, enhancing its daily operations significantly. This development is a marked improvement from the previous arrangement, where the lack of a centralized workplace led to a scattered workforce operating from various locations, including homes, rented spaces, and borrowed offices throughout the city. The new facility enables the INS to fulfill its role as the pivotal agency within the NSS more effectively. Additionally, the project facilitated the acquisition of durable equipment, such as vehicles for data collection and supervision, as well as computer equipment like servers, which have substantially improved the institution's capacity for data production and dissemination. 57. The newly established building complex is multifunctional, serving not only as office space but also as a central hub for knowledge dissemination and a venue for statistical and developmental events in the country. For instance, the CASP has already hosted training for Ministry of Planning staff. Moreover, the World Bank is set to collaborate with the INS to hold a 'Knowledge Week' at the INS facilities, an event designed to share and discuss the preliminary findings of the population census and World Bank advisory services and analytics including the Country Climate Development Report (CCDR). 58. The NSS operations have seen improvements and are better coordinated thanks to the project that streamlined the technical support the INS provides line ministries that produce statistics. The INS prepared clear protocols, guidelines, and standard methodologies to improve data production and dissemination. Fourteen standard operation procedures for the production and publication of statistics in various fields, including in employment, gender, social protection, civil registration, and national accounts, were prepared and disseminated Page 17 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) throughout the country. Additionally, detailed administrative texts, including rules of procedure and terms of reference (TOR) were prepared for the technical committees at the HCS. 59. The HR capacity in the INS, CASP and the line ministries has significantly been improved through: (a) On-the-job trainings during the production of the project’s many statistical outputs. For example, 175 staff of the INS and DEPs took trainings either through on-the-job statistical activities or through organized TA trainings, software trainings, workshops, or experience-sharing activities. The training included poverty analysis, analysis on macroeconomic management and growth policy; demographic data analysis; data confidentiality; business directory and economic classifications; impact evaluation in Francophone Africa; basic areas of statistics; application of norms, protocols, and international standards in the production and dissemination of statistics in the Republic of Congo; analysis of data from EHCVM; analysis of agricultural statistics; and the development of statistical yearbooks for mining statistics. Statistical software trainings included EUROTRACE, Excel, CSPro, and SPSS. (b) Scholarship support to sixty students out of which 48 graduated. These included four senior statistical technicians, nine statistical engineers, 12 statistical engineer economists, 12 statistical application engineers, ten demographers and one on data science and big data. The project helped implement an internship program for 34 out of the 48 graduate trainees to work with the INS for the large statistics operations and the production of routine statistics as well as in some structures of the NSS. (c) The CASPs teaching environment also significantly improved with its new building facility. CASP’s HR training program was also evaluated, with new training syllabi developed for its three graduate programs: (a) Technicians of Statistics and Planning (TSP), (b) Senior Technicians of Statistics and Planning (STSP), and (c) a bachelor’s degree. 60. Availability of data in the Republic of Congo improved significantly. Since 2015, three major survey activities were conducted: (a) REGEC, (b) the EHCVM and the third ECOM survey, and (c) the RGPH-5. There were also major improvements in routine statistics including in Consumer Price Index (CPI) coverage in the country, foreign trade, national account, agriculture, mining, and oil and gas. Additionally, during the COVID-19 pandemic, HFPS were conducted to monitor the COVID-19 pandemic effects on households and businesses. First Enterprise Census (Recensement Général des Entreprises du Congo, REGEC) 61. The enterprise census is the foundation of the system for monitoring the economic situation. For the implementation of the enterprise census, the project provided TA to identify and map economic units throughout the Congolese territory and prepare all pre-census technical documents and modernize the data collection process using Computer Aided Personal Interview (CAPI). The operation was conducted in two phases (the first in 2019 and the second in 2020). The census report was published in 2021 and is available on the INS website and the INS database. The enterprise census was the first of its kind in the Republic of Congo. First Household Living Conditions Survey (Enquête Harmonisée sur les Conditions de Vie des Ménages, EHCVM) 62. The project supported the implementation of the EHCVM and the third ECOM on a subsample (bridge survey). It supported a nonstandard unit survey, making it possible to value the consumption basket of households during the main survey. The operation followed the approach adopted by the WAEMU countries, which is based on two waves rather than a single data collection, and the data collection was finalized in end 2022. The INS team Page 18 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) benefited from on-the-job training while working on the project, as well as from capacity building on poverty analysis and calculation of poverty aggregates and indicators by participating in the EHCVM data processing workshops of the WAEMU countries under the World Bank’s Regional Program to Harmonize and Modernize Living Conditions Surveys (P153702). At the national and departmental levels, 13 product catalogs were produced, and interim analysis reports on both EHCVM and ECOM were produced in September 2023. Fifth Population and Housing Census (Cinquième Recensement Général de la Population et de l’Habitation, RGPH- 5) 63. The project supported the RGPH-5, 16 years after the last one was conducted in 2007. It financed all pre- census activities including pilot mapping and enumeration, implementation of the RGPH-5 cartography work which was published in end 2021, and pilot of the census collection tools. It helped recruit the UNFPA as the main technical advising body for the operation in communications and preparation and validation of all technical documents. It helped finance the recruitment of more than 8,000 census field staff, and the enumeration of the population was conducted in April–May 2023. Additionally, a post-census survey was conducted in September 2023. Draft reports of the cartography, the census enumeration preliminary report, and the post-census are available online. CPI, Foreign Trade, Short-Term Statistics, and National Accounts (a) The project helped increase the CPI coverage in the Republic of Congo from only Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire to additional cities of Dolisie, Ouesso, and Owando. (b) Since 2018, 56 CPI bulletins were produced by the INS. (c) There is now a system of collecting and publishing foreign trade statistics, and the Department of Customs and Domains at the INS now has a better understanding of the customs procedures. (d) The INS has now revitalized its economic outlook service since 2020 and has already produced 9 bulletins on economic indicators. (e) The project provided TA to develop the strategy document to rebase national account and supported the production and publication of the 2005–2018 series of national accounts and helped develop the provisional accounts from 2019 to 2022. COVID-19 High-Frequency Phone Surveys 64. The project supported two HFPS to monitor the socioeconomic effects of COVID-19 on households and businesses. Agriculture Statistics 65. A needs assessment of the statistical service at the Ministry of Agriculture was conducted, and a procedural manual was developed to produce and disseminate agricultural statistics according to international standards. The project also provided TA by assessing the sampling frame to determine the quality of the agriculture census, and afterward, a sampling design was prepared for the subsequent agriculture surveys. Page 19 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) Other Statistical Activities 66. The NSDS for 2022–2026 was developed with the support of the AfDB and the project. It presents more detailed information on the statistics diagnostic in the country, the main strategic axes to support the development of the NSS, an action plan, and a financing and resources mobilization plan, as well as the institutional mechanism for implementing, monitoring, and evaluating the NSDS. 67. The project provided TA to assess the quality of the sources of mining, oil and gas statistics, and an action plan to promote the production and dissemination of reliable statistical information on these topics. It provided TA to support the poverty observatory, help develop the 2022–2026 NDP, and organize the Macroeconomic Framework Committee. 68. In 2018, three line ministries and the 12 regional statistics offices produced and published statistical yearbooks for the first time, and the INS published national statistical yearbooks of the Republic of Congo for 2012, 2014, and 2018. Additionally, a 2014 statistical yearbook for the Likouala Department and the Congo Statistical Yearbook were based on departmental and sectoral directories. In the process of production of the 2018 Congo Statistical Yearbook, the project helped strengthen the capacities of the DEP and regional statistics offices. It introduced a coordinated approach to producing statistics yearbooks that follow the structure of the NSS with the INS compiling the data at the national level and the data at the regional level being collected by sectoral ministries and regional statistics offices. The report of the survey on the impact of mobile phones on the living conditions of households was also prepared and published. 69. On October 5, 2018, the enactment of Statistical Law No. 36-2018 marked a significant milestone for official statistics, partly due to the project's catalytic support, which financed organizing workshops to validate and update the law. This legislation established the NSS, outlined its mission, components, and coordination tools, and defined the principles for statistical production. While the HCS remains the central authority for national statistical policy, consulting with both producers and users of official statistics, the INS was tasked with coordinating the NSS. The NSS is strengthened in the dissemination of quality statistics relevant for policies and decision making and demand for statistical information is promoted. 70. The availability and demand for quality statistical data has significantly improved. All above mentioned statistical outputs of the project are disseminated widely to statistics users and are also available online on the INS website (https://ins-congo-cg). To promote the use of statistics, the project conducted several workshops, data dissemination events, and two user satisfaction surveys throughout the project’s duration. 71. The INS website and its open data portal (http://rcongo.opendataforafrica.org/) were revamped thanks to the project. The existence has greatly facilitated the accessibility of data, providing the Government, development partners and other users with a convenient means to quickly access the information needed for policy decisions. Prior to the project's intervention, there was a notable lack of updated data sets, and obtaining such data was difficult due to the lack of a dedicated location for their retrieval. 72. The project's long-term outputs are now observable, with data being utilized in policy decision-making processes. For instance, the resumption of national accounts production, updating the series from 2010 to 2021, follows the planned dissemination schedule and serves various users of statistical data. This includes the Ministry Page 20 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) of Finance, which uses the data for macroeconomic planning and the annual finance law, as well as development partners like the World Bank and the IMF for their macroeconomic projections. The French Embassy benefits from the production of quarterly foreign trade statistics to monitor economic relations between the two countries. Furthermore, the statistics department of the CEMAC commission has been publishing an inflation report since 2021, which is based on individual country inflation and CPI data, underscoring the significance of the data at a regional level. 73. The project has collected the data necessary to calculate eleven gender indicators of UNSD Minimum List. This activity was measured by one of the PDO indicators and using the REGEC data, one indicator was calculated. The data needed to calculate the ten remaining indicators has already been collected and currently the INS is actively working in close collaboration with the Gender project team to finalize these indicators. Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating 74. Based on the ICR methodology, both parent and AF will be assessed jointly instead of following a split rating approach. The AF did not bring major changes to the original objectives of the project as it was mostly a scale up of existing activities. Therefore, a split rating assessment is not justified. Based on the above, the project’s efficacy will be assessed jointly for both parent and AF altogether. 75. The efficacy is rated Substantial as the project achieved many of its objectives. Overall, out of the five PDO-level indicators, three have exceeded their targets, one has been substantially achieved, and one has not yet been met. These indicators constituted the project’s fundamental objectives, and their successful accomplishment signifies significant progress toward the intended outcomes. Additionally, the project focused on sixteen intermediate-level indicators that were vital steps toward meeting the PDOs. Out of the sixteen intermediate indicators, four have exceeded their targets, eight have been achieved, one was substantially achieved, and three were not achieved. Given that the overall producing and disseminating capacity of the INS and line ministries in the Republic of Congo has significantly improved with the activities mentioned above, the overall efficacy of the project is rated Substantial. C. EFFICIENCY Underlying Assumptions at Project Appraisal 76. The project does not lend itself to conventional economic cost-benefit analysis. This is because official statistics, including the processes of data production, analysis, and dissemination, are generally considered public services. At the time of appraisal, the Republic of Congo had a weak statistical system, which the project aimed to strengthen and therefore the project outcomes were expected to promote improved allocation of resources by enhancing the monitoring of the impact of Government spending by providing more accurate information on economic activities to the public at large. 77. The project was tailored to the needs of the Republic of Congo’s statistical system. Its design was holistic and thorough. For example, it considered (a) the required institutional reforms to improve HR policies and staffing, management, and incentive structures, including knowledge and learning; (b) the data gaps that were required to Page 21 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) be filled including routine and key statistics that needed to be produced and disseminated; (c) the required physical and technological requirements that were necessary to carry out the planned activities. Economic Analysis 78. High-quality statistics are the basic building blocks for evidence-based decision-making in a country. The project’s statistical outputs may not be amenable to a detailed cost-benefit analysis; however, the project achieved efficiency by improving the baseline data in the socioeconomic, health, and agriculture sectors. 79. Some of the products were implemented in the country for the first time, and yet the cost of survey per household was relatively low in comparison to countries that conducted the same surveys in the region. The average cost of survey per household in the Republic of Congo was US$203, lower than that of Benin (US$243), Niger (US$311), and Mali (US$331) and less than half the cost in the Democratic Republic of Congo (US$450). 80. A lot of focus was given to the training of the NSS staff as well as new young students. For the NSS, on- the-job and thematic trainings to eligible NSS staff included collecting survey data, data quality control and analysis, data entry design, elaboration of national accounts, poverty analysis, and elaboration of sector statistics, among other areas. For the development of new young students, the project supported the CASP through institutional assessment and review of its training curricula. Under its scholarship program, it helped Congolese students prepare for exams to be admitted to regional statistics schools, and for those who passed these entry exams, it provided full financing for their studies including their stipends. 81. Improving the HR capacity of the NSS has long-term economic benefits. It will increase efficiency by enabling staff perform their tasks more effectively and with greater productivity, which will result in cost saving and improved resource utilization; it will improve the consistency of service delivery throughout the NSS; well- trained staff are better equipped to deliver high-quality services, which can lead to increased customer satisfaction (in this case statistics users); and improved public perception of the institution will in turn contribute to economic benefits through enhanced reputation. Trainings will also help reduce the need to hire international consultants and help save consultancy fees, travel, and accommodation. Knowledge will be retained when local staff are working on key statistical projects and will even help improve the quality of work since the staff have local and contextual understandings in addition to their technical expertise. 82. Investment in the NSS staffing infrastructure of the INS and CASP has financial benefits for the future. The working environment of the INS and CASP staff and students has significantly improved because of the newly constructed INS-CASP building complex. This complex houses a six-level INS office tower and a two-level CASP staff office and classroom studios. Staff no longer rent office space to work, nor will they need to rent meeting rooms in hotels to conduct meetings, workshops, or trainings, which in turn will save costs. They now have a training center, library, staff cafeteria, and several meeting rooms. The project activity was done at a reasonably low cost compared to other construction activities in the country (approximately US$470 per m2), despite the increase in construction costs caused due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The facilities in the complex include parking space and a large area for future expansion. 83. Investment in key infrastructure to carry out statistical studies is key for long-term efficiency in the institutions since it is a lifetime investment expected to be used for at least 60–70 years. The purchase of several types of statistics equipment including CAPI instruments, desktops, and laptops will also help improve the quality Page 22 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) of future data collections. A modern building facility with good IT infrastructure not only improves the visibility and public perception of the institution but also improves the morale of those using these new facilities. 84. Moreover, the project's investment in tablets for large-scale survey data collection has markedly improved statistical data quality by transitioning from paper to a digital system. This technological upgrade has not only cut labor and error correction costs but also eliminated the laborious and resource-intensive data entry phase. Aspects in Design and Implementation 85. The project had a comprehensive approach in its design. It focused on four areas: (a) institutional reform, (b) HR capacity development, (c) data production, and (d) physical working environment. It was assumed that the successful implementation in all four areas would bring about an improved NSS in the Republic of Congo. 86. The INS was the main executing agency of the NSDS and was responsible for project coordination. The project was designed to have a PIU to manage and oversee the project’s day-to-day implementation, including fiduciary aspects. The project had a project steering committee (PSC) headed by a representative of the ministry in charge of statistics and consisted of representatives of the INS and key ministries, development partners, and data users; the PSC oversaw, promoted, coordinated, supported, monitored, and evaluated progress. In addition to its coordinator and M&E, fiduciary, and environmental and social (ES) risk management specialists, the PIU had other international consultants working alongside the INS staff counterparts to enable capacity-building exchange through on-the-job training when conducting technical work. When construction started, a building engineer expert was hired to manage the day-to-day construction activities. 87. At appraisal, the project did not anticipate the drastic drop of oil prices and its subsequent effects on the financing strategy that was put in place for this project. Additionally, the project design could have benefited from more in-depth institutional and organization risk analysis or assessment within Government entities and beneficiary institutions such as the INS and the DEPs. At the Government level, these risks were generally characterized by recurrent changes in the structures between ministries during each reconfiguration of the Government. At the structural level, these risks were characterized by the mobility of managers and conflicts of competences. 88. A midterm review (MTR) was conducted in September 2018, two years and six months after project effectiveness. The MTR assessed the overall progress of the project as Satisfactory despite the low disbursement (35 percent) of the overall project funds, which at the time was because of the lack of counterpart funds. The risks remained the same as during the parent project’s appraisal, and all the recommendations were considered during the AF1 of the project. 89. The project’s three restructurings (AF1, level 2 restructuring, and AF2) were necessary to help achieve the PDO. The AF1 was necessary mainly because the project activities were stalling due to the lack of counterpart funds. Midway through the project, it was also concluded that the then planned government-backed construction of the INS building would not have been finalized during the project’s timeline, and staff remained scattered throughout the city in different sub-par satellite offices, which made it even more difficult to implement project activities. Therefore, the project provided an infrastructure needs assessment and feasibility study to finance the INS-CASP building complex and to rent office facilities until the construction was finalized. Additionally, some surveys and censuses were added as part of the request from the Government. Page 23 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) 90. The level 2 restructuring of the project was necessary to improve the efficiency of the project and reallocate project funds to utilize unused funds within the project. For example, the PBP did not work because it took time to operationalize the system. Once an operations manual and implementation strategies were set out, the criteria to meet all the demands were deemed too high by the INS staff, and therefore, it took a lot of time to start the payment and the activity was very slow. At the time, other project activities required financing to carry out the activities; therefore, the project removed the PBP subcomponent and reallocated the budget to other more urgent activities. Finally, the AF2 was necessary to fill the budget gap that was created when planning the RGPH-5 and the EHCVM. 91. The project underestimated the time it would take to accomplish some of its activities. For example, the project was effective only 10 months after approval; afterwards it took more than two years to mobilize funds and to approve the AF1; throughout the projects duration the preparatory activities for all major surveys took longer than initially planned to include the enterprise census, the EHCVM, and the RGPH-5; and finally the construction activities were also delayed for various reasons and works only started three years after the approval of the activity. 92. The project sequencing would have better benefited from a less ambitious design. For example, most of the project’s dissemination and use activities depended on the completion and analysis of the planned major survey activities. Since there was a delay in implementing these surveys, the analytical and knowledge part of the project activities was also delayed. Even if the project’s plans were very ambitious, it has achieved its targets. 93. Having client commitment, ownership, and accountability around a strengthened NSS is key for the achievement of results. Despite the fiscal challenges it was facing, the Government of the Republic of Congo has demonstrated a high level of commitment to statistical development. There was (a) a continued understanding of project objectives and support for its success, related decision-making, and management of the project; (b) clear understanding of how the project was helping in the development of the institution; and (c) deeper knowledge of the broad sector reform process. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic did not stop the Government from preparing for the census which was planned in 2023. It carried out all preparatory activities at the height of the pandemic, while keeping in line with all the infection risk mitigation measures that were put in place in the country. Assessment of Efficiency and Rating 94. The project should be commended for conducting and finalizing successfully all planned large statistical operations in parallel to conducting internal institutional reform and large-scale building construction. Given that the INS is a young institute formed in 2012 with the statistics law approved only in 2018, it still managed to finalize its first REGEC and EHCVM. Additionally, the RGPH-5 was conducted after 16 years following international standards, and routine statistics production and dissemination at the INS were improved significantly. The relationship between the INS and the statistical units from line ministries is now streamlined, and procedures are now better and clearer. 95. Given the above justifications, the project’s efficiency is rated Substantial. D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING 96. The overall outcome is rated Satisfactory. Based on the above assessment and ratings, with the relevance of the PDO rated High, the efficacy of achievement of PDO rated Substantial, and efficiency rated Substantial, the overall outcome of the project is rated as Satisfactory. Page 24 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) Gender 97. The completion of the RGPH-5 and the EHCVM will help design social welfare programs, thereby addressing gender and inequality issues. For example, the EHCVM collected timely data for sex-disaggregated indicators related to domestic work, employment status, education, and assets ownership (including individual- level data on agricultural land ownership and management as well as on ownership of mobile phone and bank account). Moreover, the various capacity-building activities included in the project (scholarship program to graduate more qualified statisticians and demographers, on-the-job trainings, and experience-sharing sessions) will improve the country’s NSS capacity to properly produce and publish relevant gender indicators using household surveys and firm censuses as well as administrative sources. 98. The projects intervention in calculating gender indicators of UNSD Minimum List is described in detail in paragraph 78 under the Efficacy section. Institutional Strengthening 99. The project sought to undertake organizational reform and infrastructure capacity development in the INS and CASP as part of its activities. These are mentioned under the efficacy and efficiency sections of this ICR document, paragraphs 55–60. Mobilizing Private Sector Financing 100. The project did not seek to mobilize private sector financing. Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity 101. The project was not designed to have a direct impact on poverty reduction and shared prosperity. However, strengthening the capacity of the NSS to produce and disseminate quality data and statistics will improve the M&E of the NDP implementation, therefore helping to improve the evidence base for development interventions intended to reduce poverty and promote shared prosperity. 102. Additionally, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, HFPS informed the response strategies of the World Food Program (WFP) and the United States Embassy. These organizations used the survey data to direct their resilience initiatives, providing essential food supplies and necessities to vulnerable households in Brazzaville and Pointe- Noire. Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts 103. The project supported the implementation of the project with strong backing from the Government and other international partners. The Statistics Thematic Group (STG) that was created with the support of the project met frequently and discussed on several statistical issues and combined efforts to improve statistics within the country. 104. The project’s success in the construction of the INS-CASP building complex served as a case study for other Central and West African countries including the Central African Republic, Chad, Mauritania, Niger, and Page 25 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) Senegal as part of the newly approved Harmonizing and Improving Statistics in West and Central Africa - Series of Projects 1 (HISWACA - SOP 1, P178497) and HISWACA - SOP 2. As part of the HISWACA - SOP 2, the AF for the Republic of Congo and the Gabonese Republic is also planning to finance the construction of new buildings for the INS in the case of Gabon and the INS and CASP in the case of the Republic of Congo. 105. The project’s success helped mobilize funding for statistical activities by the UNFPA and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Funding for a project implemented in an effective, efficient, and transparent manner can generate leverage for the benefit of beneficiaries. In this regard, the World Bank's funding of the project has attracted funding from other partners such as UNFPA and UNHCR. Moreover, the young statistician's internship program has inspired the World Bank to launch a series of pilot internship programs in Environment and Social (ES) risk management in FY23, with plans to extend similar opportunities in procurement and financial management. These initiatives are designed to build the capacity of young Congolese professionals and create a robust talent pool for fiduciary roles in development projects and programs. 106. In addition to financial leverage, the project significantly enhanced the INS's reputation, enabling it to lead and oversee a variety of data collection efforts, including those funded by technical and financial partners and other World Bank-financed projects including the Lisungi Emergency COVID-19 Response project (P174178) and other World Bank Education Sector projects (P152910). The INS's expertise was further recognized during the World Bank's Knowledge Week in FY22, where it was invited to present the critical importance and diverse applications of the RGPH-5 mapping, solidifying its status as a knowledge authority. III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION 107. The project activities were based on the 2013–2017 NSDS which identified the need to build HR capabilities as one of its four strategic themes to support development of statistics in the country. They were also based on the consultations and discussions that were conducted with key statistics stakeholders during the project preparation. 108. At the time of project preparation, there was a strong buy-in from the Government. The Government has demonstrated its support for statistics development by passing the Statistical Law, approving the NSDS, and budgeting for (a) construction of a new INS building, (b) organization of the censuses and household surveys and production of data, and (c) counterpart financing for the project. 109. The PAD discussed the risks that the project could face and identified adequate mitigation measures through the Operational Risk Assessment Framework (ORAF). The overall implementation risk was rated Substantial, with stakeholder risk rated Substantial and implementing agency risk including capacity and governance rated Moderate. Under project risk, design, delivery, monitoring, and sustainability and HR were rated Substantial, while capacity, governance, and E&S risks were rated Low. 110. However, a risk rating of High rather than Moderate would have been appropriate for the capacity rating under the implementing agency risk assessment. There were long delays in the project’s large statistical operations and construction activities, which were mainly because of limited experience in conducting these activities. Page 26 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) 111. To mitigate the risk of low HR capacity to manage and implement the project, a PIU was created at the INS. It was responsible for the day-to-day management of the project and included key fiduciary and M&E staff who were paired with INS staff to help build the institutes’ fiduciary capacity. Additionally, technical staff from the INS and the ones from the statistics units of the sectoral ministries were teamed with international consultants during the production of documents or preparation of statistical operations. The project design was agile in mitigating the risks that materialized during implementation and was able to quickly rectify issues through different World Bank instruments. 112. Despite the theoretical soundness of the approach, its practical application revealed several obstacles. The PIU reported directly to the INS line ministry (Ministry of Planning) while being under the INS and supporting it. This created hierarchical challenges and created resentment from the implementing agency. This sometimes created delays in project implementation since there was no clear communication between the INS and the PIU. B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION Factors within Government/Implementing Entity Control 113. The project experienced several setbacks in its timeline, which can be attributed to a range of factors, including the following: (a) Initial hurdles were encountered with the release of counterpart funds, a condition essential for the project’s effectiveness. Although the first installment was disbursed, the Government was unable to release additional funds. (b) At the project’s inception, the lack of office space for the INS staff temporarily hindered the progression of project activities. 114. Further challenges included delays in the approval of key decrees, changes within the PIU, and low salary payments to government staff. Efforts to mobilize funds for compensating those affected by construction works, as well as a lack of funds to support scholarship students once the project closed, also contributed to the delays. 115. Other issues that occurred during the implementation included the following: (a) at the beginning, the beneficiaries did not get a full picture of the project, and there was sometimes lack of information on the project activities among the project beneficiaries, leading to misappropriation of funds; (b) 50 tablets that were purchased as part of REGEC were lost and had to be compensated by the Government; (c) approximately US$6,000 was also misappropriated and was compensated by the Government; and (d) there was an overall pushback from the INS staff when international consultants were recruited to support the implementation of the project activities. 116. The PIU were highly effective in carrying out their tasks over the course of the project, and except for the minor setback caused during the change of its key personnel, overall project management was Satisfactory. To track the PDO and the outcomes, the PIU regularly produced progress reports summarizing recent project activity developments. These reports highlighted key implementation challenges and provided a status update on all issues and recommendations and progress on actions agreed at previous implementation supervision missions (ISMs). Page 27 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) 117. There were many challenges in implementing the construction activity. For example, once the AF1 was approved, the activity took three years and four months before construction activity started. This was mainly due to the following reasons: (a) The process, starting from site identification, to receiving the title deed, to compensating the persons affected by the construction, was very long. (b) The architecture firm hired to design and prepare construction documents for the project did not appropriately budget the program and therefore had to change the design at least three times to match the project’s allocated budget for the activity. This firm had low capacity in site supervision and therefore did not flag site issues on time, causing overall delays in finalizing the activity. (c) Once construction started, the COVID-19 pandemic started causing construction material prices to increase, causing delays and amendments to the contracts due to budget overrun. Additionally, the expert hired by the PIU to manage the construction contract did not have enough experience on site and could not help ensure smooth collaboration between the different parties on site including contractors, supervision firm, ES team, and other technical consultants, therefore leading to more delays in approvals and payments. Once this expert was changed, activities significantly improved, communication among the different firms on site improved, and the project activity was finalized, while all mistakes and budget overruns were fixed through amendments of contracts. 118. Despite the challenges the Government faced due to the lack of funds, its commitment to the project implementation was strong over the course of the project. There was strong support from the line ministry, namely the Ministry of Planning, when the project faced challenges, and the communication between the Government and the World Bank was seamless and effective. Most of the issues that arose were resolved through this strong collaboration, and this is evident in the successful approval and implementation of the AF1, restructuring of the project, and the AF2. Factors Subject to World Bank Control 119. The World Bank task team provided continuous support to the Borrower during project preparation and implementation. Communication with the client at the higher level with the line ministry as well as at the project level was effective. The World Bank team identified project risks ahead of time and aimed to resolve them through different World Bank instruments. 120. The task team provided regular hands-on training to the PIU in the areas of FM and procurement including on the World Bank’s Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement and ES risk management issues. During the supervision missions, the World Bank’s team was always composed of staff with high-level multidisciplinary skills, particularly experts on statistics, FM, procurement, and building construction. The client also benefited from the regular World Bank support either online or in person as most of the task team members were based in the country. Additionally, the World Bank helped improve the engagement of other development partners through a sustained dialog to strengthen coordination and harmonization of their interventions through STG discussions. 121. There were three task team leaders (TTLs) during the project, and the last two were already project team members from the start of the project. However, there were disruptions caused by the frequent change in the World Bank’s E&S risk management specialists. For example, there were twelve specialists, six from each sector, Page 28 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) who worked on the project throughout its duration, while on average there were a maximum of three team members who were changed for a specific project area. The change in staffing resulted from the World Bank’s internal organizational restructurings, which in turn led to the handover of the project from one specialist to the other, which sometimes caused disruptions during ongoing discussion or E&S instrument preparation. 122. The World Bank team prepared Implementation Status and Results Reports (ISRs) to report all project developments. These were one of the main reports that were used to flag any surfacing issues ahead of time to senior management. These ISRs were written with candor and quality. Factors outside the Control of Government and/or Implementing Entities 123. At the initial stage of project implementation, lower oil prices negatively affected the Government revenues and its ability to provide counterpart funds on time. This tight fiscal situation persisted over the course of the project and was the cause of most of the delays in implementation. 124. The situation was worsened with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the country’s economy was hit by the containment measures in response to the pandemic and by the loss of oil export revenues due to the slump in external demand worldwide. 125. The pandemic increased the cost of construction materials and interrupted procurement processes. The planned survey activities, including RGPH-5 and EHCVM, were also delayed since most were planned to be conducted face to face and the containment measures did not allow for persons to gather together or meet one another. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) M&E Design 126. To track the PDO and the outcomes, the project implementation team relied on the project Results Framework. The Results Framework was clear and was adjusted as needed during the project’s AFs and restructuring to reflect the revised scope of activities and the extension of the projects closing dates. Therefore, during these changes, some indicators were dropped and/or added to better measure the project’s achievement. 127. To track the progress toward the desired outputs and outcomes, the Results Framework also included intermediate indicators to measure the implementation of M&E activities. Some of these activities included the preparation of project progress reports for the PSC, the PSC meeting semiannually, preparation of annual work plans and budget, M&E workshops, and preparation of regular E&S reports. M&E Implementation 128. The World Bank team monitored the project through regular ISMs and technical missions, which were then followed by Aide Memoires and Back-to-Office Reports as agreed with the client and the World Bank. Additionally, the M&E data were collected and summarized in a methodologically sound manner in the project ISRs. Page 29 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) 129. The World Bank team was quick to mitigate all the project risks. There was a strong team in the country, including the TTL (who was previously a staff member based in the country), who supported the client daily, and there were technical missions every two months to support the implementation of construction activities. M&E Utilization 130. As noted earlier, the project progress indicators were reported in the ISRs and were used to provide evidence of achievement of outcomes. The missions always included a list of activities that are recommended and agreed for the coming periods, as well as status updates on those that were recommended previously. The M&E system was implemented fully as designed to provide evidence to assess all dimensions of the PDO, the Results Framework was sometimes revised to better measure the project’s progress, and the project carried out periodic reporting. Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E 131. The overall rating for quality of M&E is High, considering that the required M&E staff were in place and carried out periodic reporting. B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE 132. The project followed the World Bank’s Safeguard Operational Policies and complied with all applicable/triggered policies. At project appraisal, the project’s EA category was rated C, with E&S risk rated as Low; however, after the approval of the AF1, the EA category required partial assessment, and the E&S risk was rated Moderate. The AF1 triggered a change in the project’s EA category from C to partial assessment, triggering the safeguards policies OP/BP 4.01 (Environmental Assessment), OP/BP 4.11 (Physical Cultural Resources), and OP/BP 4.12 (Involuntary Resettlement). All required instruments, including the Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) and Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF), were disclosed by the client and the World Bank before start of project activities. Incidents and issues that arose were managed effectively and in accordance with the World Bank’s policies and procedures. 133. There were no fiduciary compliance issues during project implementation. C. BANK PERFORMANCE Quality at Entry 134. The World Bank was effective in addressing the key challenges in the development of statistics in the Republic of Congo. The project’s components and activities were fully in line with the overall country development objectives and leveraged with lessons learned from different evaluations and projects in the statistics sector. 135. The technical design included different aspects of institutional building and reform while bettering the core business outputs which in this case was statistical production and dissemination. Some activities were conducted in parallel for this reason including for example on-the-job trainings for large statistical operations. 136. Additionally, the World Bank team initiated discussions with TTLs working in the Republic of Congo to avoid duplication of statistics production activities. The discussions assessed statistical information needs within Page 30 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) the World Bank projects and coordinated efforts to ensure that all statistics-related concerns are considered. This collaboration proved fruitful when the HFPS were conducted to measure the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country’s households and economic units. 137. To manage the risk of financing random statistical activities by different international partners, the World Bank helped establish an STG composed of different international partners. This group was successful in meeting and discussing statistical support to the NSS and exchanged experiences regularly and coordinated their projects to avoid duplication of activities to support the NSDS. 138. Therefore, the World Bank’s quality at entry is rated Satisfactory. Quality of Supervision 139. The World Bank team made every effort to adapt to the changing financial circumstances in the country and provided different types of World Bank financial instruments to resolve the problems. The project AFs and restructuring were processed quickly and efficiently with the collaboration of the different World Bank team members based both in the country and elsewhere. 140. As evidenced by the series of project ISRs, the World Bank team conducted regular supervision missions and resolved issues ahead of time by flagging them to senior management as needed. In addition to the TTLs, several other technical experts based in the Republic of Congo and Washington, DC provided training and advice to the client when needed. 141. Therefore, the World Bank’s quality of supervision is rated Satisfactory. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance 142. Given that the project was large and complex, the team should be commended on finalizing it with all the intended results achieved. This is because of the strong project design, appropriate M&E arrangements, extensive TA, technical missions, collaborations, and good relations with the client. 143. Given the above justifications, the overall performance of the World Bank is rated Satisfactory. D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 144. The INS is now better placed to coordinate the NSS; however, it still has a long way to go. The project focused on the INS’s institutional performance and capacity while working with the DEPs. It was also anchored at the INS and therefore paid less attention to other sectoral statistical services. Even though this was a deliberate strategy as part of the project’s design, to first help the INS improve before going to the other sectoral services, there should now be more focus on these services to help improve the NSS. The NSS still suffers from a huge shortage of quality staff, and there still are areas in the INS that could be prioritized and developed. 145. All standard operating procedures that were developed as part of the project’s institutional reform should be used as business-as-usual processes. These involve several steps to ensure smooth integration and adoption within the NSS organization. For example, the standard operating procedures should be communicated Page 31 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) clearly to all relevant parties, and training should be provided, rolled out in a structured manner, and updated and improved based on monitoring and feedback from the users. 146. The training plan that has been developed by the INS should be streamlined and implemented in the future. The project mostly financed on-the-job training to build the capacity of the INS staff while at the same time producing key statistics. The training plan for the INS identifying training needs and skills gap was developed only toward the end of the project, and its implementation was not possible due to the lack of funds. 147. There is a need for more resources for data collection. The Republic of Congo plans to build on the project’s achievements through the HISWACA - SOP 2 through a US$60 million IDA credit. This project was recently approved and aims to improve the quality, accessibility, and production of regionally comparable statistics, with the goal to improve the statistical performance and the extent to which their NSS meets user needs and contributes to better decision-making. It will also support capacity building with a focus on organizing and modernizing statistical methods, physical Infrastructure, and ICT of the DEPs and the INS. 148. The risk to the project’s nontechnical environment sustainability is high. The INS and CASP did not have building facility managers before receiving the newly constructed building complex. The office complex is placed on 1 ha of land and includes two office buildings; a parking lot; gardens; a generator room; water pump room; service rooms; and other facilities including elevators, electricity, and water systems. At project closing, the budget for the maintenance was still too low to help support all the functions of the building complex; however, all the mentioned systems require a recurrent budget for operationality and maintenance. A designated facilities professional should also be hired. This person should oversee these issues, assigning users to offices, training all building users on the security and appropriate use of the building complex, archiving and storing documents as needed, and engaging different vendors as needed. 149. The project's support in enhancing the CASP has introduced multiple sustainable benefits. Lessons from the project's implementation indicated that the Government was unable to finance scholarships and stipends for students to study at regional African statistics schools. However, with the CASP's training program now significantly improved and the establishment of a new training facility, it can offer high-quality, standardized education to students keen on pursuing advanced statistics. This advancement negates the need for students to study abroad, thereby saving the country considerable financial resources. 150. The risk of the recently graduated 48 young professionals not being hired is high. At project closing, 34 out of the 48 recent graduates from the regional statistical school were working as interns for the NSS with the financial support of the project. The Government has to take over and hire these professionals as soon as possible. V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 151. Undertaking a large reform (institutional, HR, and infrastructure) should be cautiously explored and realistic expectations should be set. Change reform typically requires a strategic approach that includes stakeholder engagement, clear communication, adequate resourcing and commitment to continuous improvement. In the case of the Republic of Congo: (a) Overcoming Resistance to change: At the inception of the project, the INS had not yet been established as an autonomous entity, leading to a lack of formalized procedures, particularly for executing large-scale statistical surveys and facilitating cross-sector collaboration. Despite this, Page 32 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) certain informal processes and cultural norms had taken root, contributing to a resistance to change. To address these challenges, the project team employed creative strategies to ensure progress, while simultaneously providing training to the staff to adapt to new ways of working. Some examples include: (i) pairing international expert consultants with the national ones to support the implementation of activities, (ii) conducting workshops and peer-to-peer exchange learning sessions with other country NSS staff. (b) Navigating Resource Constraints and Ambition: As the project initiated institutional and HR reforms, it quickly became apparent that the ambitious range of planned activities was not feasible within the existing time and budgetary limits. This insight led to a strategic shift towards identifying the most effective methods for achieving the project's objectives while maintaining a realistic approach to interventions. As a result, the project team had to prioritize certain tasks while postponing or transferring others to additional World Bank projects. For example, while a detailed HR training plan was formulated, its execution was not possible under the project's limitations. This plan is now slated for use in the upcoming HISWACA – SOP2 project, ensuring that the preparatory work will still serve a valuable role in future development endeavors. (c) Bridging Communication Gaps: Despite securing Government support, the project faced hurdles in conveying its reform goals to key stakeholders, such as INS personnel and staff from the line ministries responsible for routine statistical operations. This communication gap resulted in a protracted learning process, as it was necessary to thoroughly explain the project's scope and constraints, which in turn slowed down the project's momentum. (d) Close supervision of project activities is important for the successful completion of a complex activity in a project: For example, in this case, the project entailed the construction of a new building complex, a task for which the INS, CASP, or the PIU lacked prior experience. After the Government fulfilled the initial due diligence and E&S requirements—such as acquiring the land title deed and compensating informal settlements on the property—the World Bank enhanced its support for the project. This was achieved by increasing the frequency of construction site visits, where the team collaborated closely with the contractors, supervision firms, and other relevant parties. These efforts were instrumental in ensuring the construction met quality standards, stayed within reasonable budget, and was completed on schedule. 152. Project design must prudently ensure that all necessary funding is secured prior to initiating implementation as the absence of complete financial backing poses a substantial risk to the project’s successful execution. In this instance, the project's design hinged on the expectation that the Government would contribute 85 percent of the project's budget through counterpart financing. Moreover, the Government was also anticipated to undertake additional activities, which, while not within the project's direct scope, were intended to complement the project's efforts. Unfortunately, these assumptions did not materialize as planned. The expected counterpart financing failed to be realized, and several key assumptions made during the project’s design phase were not actualized. As a result, the project was compelled to absorb some of these activities. To mitigate such risks in environments with fiscal volatility, World Bank projects should consider implementing a mechanism to ensure that counterpart funding is firmly in place before reaching the stage of project effectiveness, or to design the project such that project activities and their outcomes do not rely on counterpart funding or other untested assumptions. 153. Project design must be approached with careful consideration regarding the sequencing of activities. For example, the project intended to release gender indicators and promote the dissemination and use of statistical information following the completion of major survey activities, such as RGPH-5 and EHCVM. These surveys were Page 33 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) initially scheduled for the first quarter of the project, while dissemination and usage activities were slated for the second quarter. Consequently, any delay in the survey activities inevitably impacted the timeline of subsequent activities. Therefore, project sequencing should thoroughly account for implementation risks. 154. The project should consider the risk of non-collaboration between international experts and local beneficiaries. To mitigate the risk of low capacity at the INS to conduct large statistical operations, the project hired international experts to support the staff. This had always created a palpable tension between the INS and the international staff. For example, the INS staff voiced their dissatisfaction with the existing pay structure, which they perceived as unfairly favoring their international counterparts. This disparity in compensation sowed seeds of resentment, leading to instances where local staff have demonstrated a tendency to push back. The situation underscores the need for taking into account such risks arising from large pay gaps among local and international staff or consultants. 155. PBP was not successful in the Republic of Congo. The PBP approach was a departure from the Government's usual practice of awarding premiums and aimed to introduce performance assessments for INS staff. However, this concept was not well-received by the INS employees, who were accustomed to a system where premiums were distributed by the Ministry to selected staff members, regardless of their actual work or performance. The existing compensation method, which was more akin to a salary supplement than a true performance incentive, was not aligned with the project's guidelines. A key underlying issue was the inadequacy of base salaries, which contributed to the PBPs failure. Therefore, for future projects that are planning to use the PBP mechanism to boost project implementation, it is crucial to conduct a thorough evaluation of the base salary structures during the project design phase. . Page 34 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: Strengthen the NSS in the production and, dissemination of quality statistics Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of NSS staff with Number 40.00 60.00 88.00 formal degree in statistics, informatics or demography 22-Jan-2018 30-Apr-2021 30-Sep-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Achievement exceeded target (147 %) Sixty scholarships to students were provided and 48 graduated including four senior statistical technicians, nine statistical engineers, 12 statistical engineer economists, 12 statistical application engineers, ten demographers and one on data science and big data. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Share of statistical products Percentage 25.00 70.00 85.30 completed and published by the INS following 01-Oct-2014 30-Apr-2021 30-Sep-2023 Page 35 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) international standards. Comments (achievements against targets): Achievement exceeded target (122 %) The following surveys, studies and reports followed international standards and are available online on the INS website (https://ins-congo-cg): ECOM 3, five waves of COVID-19 pandemic socio-economic effects surveys, the RGPH-5 cartography report, the report on the enumeration and post-census results are also available for the RGPH-5; REGEC reports from 2019 (identification phase), principal results, and report on thematic analysis; light survey on the informal sector, and three the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) etc). Additionally Government and development partners already use this portal for policy decision-making as mentioned under the efficacy section of this ICR. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of UNSD Minimum Number 0.00 35.00 1.00 List gender indicators available using data collected 01-Jan-2022 30-Sep-2023 30-Sep-2023 within the past 5 years (Number) Comments (achievements against targets): Target not met. Based on the REGEC data, one indicator is now available on the INS website namely proportion and number of children aged 5-17 years engaged in child labor, by sex and age. However, it misses disaggregation by age. The remaining 10 indicators are unavailable despite relevant data already being collected through the EHCVM. The INS is working actively to make them available post project closing date. Page 36 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) Objective/Outcome: Promote the demand for statistical information. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Share of statistical output Percentage 0.00 60.00 72.10 available to users through the open data portal 01-Sep-2014 30-Apr-2021 30-Sep-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Achievement exceeded target (120 %) The following data is available on the INS open data portal: http://rcongo.opendataforafrica.org/: the ECOM 1 and 2, and a report on survey of Household survey with multiple indicators, two DHS surveys and one deep dive report, population census data reports from 1984, 1996, and 2007, baseline survey on the use of integrated health centers, seroprevalence survey of Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) indicators, baseline survey of the agricultural development and rehabilitation of rural roads project, and bulletins on the project and others. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion User Satisfaction Index Number 0.00 75.00 63.70 01-Sep-2014 30-Apr-2021 30-Sep-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 37 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) Target Substantially achieved (91 %) The indicator met only 91% of the originally anticipated value. To promote the use of statistics, the project conducted two user satisfaction surveys in 2019 and 2022 focusing on central, decentralized public and private agencies and international organizations. A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Improving the institutional and organizational framework of the NSS Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Institutional capacity Yes/No No Yes Yes assessment is completed for INS staff and 14 identified 01-Sep-2014 30-Apr-2021 30-Sep-2023 DEPs Comments (achievements against targets): Target fully achieved (100 %) The project helped complete several NSS institutional reforms with focus on the INS, DEPs and CASP. It supported the institutional assessment of the INS, and the technical partnership between the INS and the line ministries was reviewed and simplified. The results of this evaluation also enabled the INS to strengthen the capacities of the DEPs in the production of statistical yearbooks of the services of the sectoral ministries. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Page 38 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) Share of sectorial statistical Percentage 30.00 80.00 66.70 agencies that produce statistical information 01-Sep-2014 30-Apr-2021 30-Sep-2023 endorsed as official statistics by the INS Comments (achievements against targets): Target substantially achieved (83.4%) Out of the 24 statistics producers (18 DEPs, three research centers, and three from technical and financial partners and BEAC), sixteen have produced statistical information endorsed as official statistics by the INS. These include twelve from the DEPs, two from the research centers, and two from the technical and financial partners and BEAC. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion African chart of statistics and Yes/No No Yes Yes code of conduct are disseminated widely to the 01-Sep-2014 30-Apr-2021 30-Sep-2023 public. Comments (achievements against targets): Target fully achieved (100%) The INS celebrated the Annual African Statistics Day in 2016, 2019, 2020, and 2022, and during this celebration part of the activities were to popularize the principles of official statistics contained in the African Charter. Page 39 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Execution rate of the Percentage 0.00 50.00 100.00 0.00 activities under the responsibility of the Project 01-Sep-2014 15-Jun-2019 30-Apr-2021 30-Sep-2023 in the strategic HR plan Comments (achievements against targets): Target not achieved. The project supported the development of the INS HR training plan, however, it was difficult to implement it due to lack of resources and additional time. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion The INS-CASP complex is Yes/No No Yes Yes built and operational 22-Jan-2018 30-Apr-2024 30-Sep-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Target fully achieved (100%) The INS-CASP building complex is constructed and fully operational. The project helped improve the organizational performance of the INS and CASP by improving building a new building complex. New services were including training rooms, mini data centers, libraries, meeting rooms and standard and functional office spaces. The INS took over the building complex on September 15, 2023 and staff has already started working there. The CASP has also started its academic year 2023-2024 in the new building complex. Page 40 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion The new INS-CASP complex is Yes/No No Yes No furnished, has a data center, computers and operational 01-Sep-2014 30-Apr-2021 30-Sep-2023 internet links Comments (achievements against targets): Target partially achieved (50 %) The project financed the acquisition of various items including furniture, photocopiers, video conferencing systems, and video projectors, as well as servers to support extensive statistical operations. These resources are currently utilized within the premises of the INS, CASP, and DEPs. Nonetheless, there is still a need for additional furniture, the installation of a data center, equipment and office partitioning. These works were not accomplished due to significant budget limitations encountered during the building's construction phase. Consequently, these outstanding tasks have been incorporated into the forthcoming HISWACA SOP2 AF for the Republic of Congo. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of trained students Number 0.00 15.00 17.00 that pass the exam to get into regional statistics 22-Jan-2018 30-Apr-2021 30-Sep-2023 schools, with at least 10% women Page 41 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) Comments (achievements against targets): Achievement exceeded target (113%) Many students have taken training to prepare for the statistics exap given by the regional statistics schools. Out of these, 17 have passed, but unfortunately, the number of female candidates has remained relatively low, to the point that it is not yet possible to reach the percentage of 10 per cent of the total number of students prepared to take the competitive examinations. Component: Improving the production, dissemination, and use of statistics Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion A functional web-based data Yes/No No Yes Yes portal enabling access to the NSS data is developed and 01-Sep-2014 30-Apr-2021 30-Sep-2023 deployed Comments (achievements against targets): Target fully achieved (100%) The INS website has been renovated and is functional (https://ins-congo-cg). The AfDB has an initiative (called Open Data) in collaboration with AFRISTAT allowing member countries to obtain the space to house the data. The NSI is part of this initiative. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion - Number of outreach Number 2.00 10.00 11.00 Page 42 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) thematic activities to key 01-Sep-2014 30-Apr-2021 30-Sep-2023 stakeholders such as media, politicians, policy makers and academia from which feedback is integrated in project interventions Comments (achievements against targets): Achievement exceeded target (120%) Additionally, the project also conducted several outreach and dissemination events including at least 122 key stakeholders during the launch of certain statistics products that were mentioned above. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of knowledge Number 2.00 10.00 9.00 products on economic development issues 01-Sep-2014 30-Apr-2021 30-Sep-2023 produced with NSS data and disseminated to large audiences Comments (achievements against targets): Target fully achieved (100%) Four national accounts report, three economic outlooks, three commerce bulletins have been produced and disseminated to large audiences. Page 43 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Data useful to identify Yes/No No Yes Yes people affected by climate changes are collected 01-Jan-2022 30-Sep-2023 30-Sep-2023 through population census or household budget survey Comments (achievements against targets): Component: Project management Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion The PIU makes biannual Yes/No No Yes Yes progress reports available to the Project Steering 01-Sep-2014 30-Dec-2019 30-Sep-2023 Committee Comments (achievements against targets): Target fully achieved (100%) Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Completion Page 44 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) Target The Project Steering Yes/No No Yes Yes Committee meets semi- annually to assess project 01-Sep-2014 30-Dec-2019 30-Sep-2023 performance, intermediate results and outcomes Comments (achievements against targets): Target fully achieved (100%) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Annual budgeted work plan Yes/No No Yes Yes of the PIU is reviewed by the steering committee and 01-Sep-2014 30-Dec-2019 30-Sep-2023 submitted to the World Bank for no objection Comments (achievements against targets): Target fully achieved (100%) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Page 45 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) The results based monitoring Yes/No No Yes Yes framework of the projet is defined, updated and 01-Sep-2014 30-Dec-2019 30-Sep-2023 validated by the Project Steering Committee Comments (achievements against targets): Target fully achieved (100%) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion - Operational M&E Yes/No No Yes Yes workshops with INS and all beneficiaries of the project 01-Sep-2014 30-Apr-2019 30-Sep-2023 are organized 2 times a year to solicit feedback and assess the progress of planned activities Comments (achievements against targets): Target fully achieved (100%) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Page 46 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) Number of annual reports on Number 0.00 6.00 10.00 the implementation of the ESMF and the RPF produced 22-Jan-2018 30-Apr-2021 30-Sep-2023 and discussed in the Project Steering Committee Comments (achievements against targets): Achievement exceeded target (166.6 %) Page 47 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT Objective/Outcome 1 NSS strengthened in the production of quality statistics relevant for policies and decision making 1. Increased number of NSS staff with formal degree in statistics, informatics, or demography Outcome Indicators 2. Increased share of statistical products completed and published by the INS following international standards. 1. Institutional capacity assessment is completed for INS staff and 14 identified DEPs. 2. Share of sectoral statistical agencies that produce statistical information endorsed as official statistics by the INS. 3. African chart of statistics and code of conduct are disseminated widely to the public. Intermediate Results 4. Execution rate of the activities under the responsibility of the project in the strategic HR plan Indicators 5. The INS-CASP complex is built and operational. 6. The new INS-CASP complex is furnished, has a data center, computers and operational internet links 7. Number of trained students that pass the exam to get into regional statistics schools, with at least 10% women Component 1: Improving the Institutional and Organizational Framework of the NSS Subcomponent 1.1: organizational development • Fourteen DEPs were evaluated; their staff were trained on the application of protocols, norms, and quality standards in the production and dissemination of statistics; and fourteen procedure manuals for the production and publication of statistics in various fields (employment, gender, social protection, civil registration, and so on) were prepared. Key Outputs by Component • Standard operation procedures were developed to streamline the technical support that the INS provides these line ministries, internal procedures including technical committees TOR for the functioning of the HCS were developed, (linked to the achievement rules of procedure and framework for permanent consultation between producers and users of statistics were of the Objective/Outcome developed. 1) • The INS underwent a thorough review of its structure, operations, and functions, resulting in a strategic action plan aimed at improving its institutional setup and providing the necessary human and material resources to effectively carry out its duties. Subcomponent 1.2: Human Resources Development • INS and select NSS staff: On-the-job trainings including capacity-building trainings of 175 staff through seminars, and raining workshops organized both locally and internationally and through participation in study tours for experience exchange. The statistics topics included national accounts; prices; foreign trade; and M&E, processing, Page 48 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) and analysis of statistical data. They were also trained on the procedures of production and dissemination of statistics. To carry out this subcomponent, the project has provided on-the-job training to 175 NSS staff in various fields, through seminars and training workshops. • CASP: It was evaluated for its institutional, organizational, and functional capacity; its training programs were reviewed; and training syllabi for the three cycles of TSP, STSP, and bachelor’s degree were developed. • 60 Congolese students were provided scholarships to train in regional statistics colleges. Out of these, 48 (4 females) have already graduated. Of the graduates, 34 were provided internship at the INS for the realization of the major statistics operations and some routine statistics in the NSS. • Useful statistical software including SPSS, PROGRESS, and ERETES. trainings were provided during the production of statistics. Subcomponent 1.3: Construction of INS office facilities for the INS and the CASP and office rent • The new INS-CASP building complex, now fully operational, offers a range of services including training rooms, mini data centers, IT kiosks for statistical data storage, mini libraries, and additional staff accommodation space. • The project financed the rental of three buildings for the INS, covering services such as internet connection, security, and fuel for generators, over a five-year period from 2017 to 2021. Subcomponent 1.4: Upgrading infrastructure and equipment. • INS: Purchase of office equipment, 16 four-by-four vehicles; nautical equipment including three motorized hulls and seven outboards; computer equipment including 98 laptops, 49 desktops, 15 inverters, and 3 photocopiers; survey equipment including 42 global positioning systems, 600 Windows tablets, 70 Android tablets, 60 motorcycles, 47 telephones (satellite and cellular), 2 plotters, 12 printers, 2 generators, 13 video projectors, 1 shredder, 2 servers, 1 scanner, 2 cisco switches, and software licenses including for ARCGIS • Select line ministries: Purchase of office equipment, 24 laptops and desktops, 18 inverters, 6 video projectors, and 6 printers. • CASP: Purchase of 4 desktop computers, 1 copier, 1 video projector, 4 printers, and 150 benches. Component 2: Improving the Production, Dissemination, and use of Statistics. Subcomponent 2.1: Data production and management • REGEC: Financed and provided TA to the 2021 REGEC which was implemented by the INS. The main indicators were published in 2022, and the analysis report was published in September 2023. • EHCVM and ECOM: Financed and provided TA for the EHCVM and the third ECOM. Page 49 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) • In March 2023, the INS participated in an EHCVM data processing workshop of the WAEMU countries which helped them build their capacity on poverty analysis and calculation of poverty aggregates and indicators. Two workshops were also financed to clear data from the ECOM and EHCVM. An interim analysis report was produced in September 2023. • RGPH-5: Financed and provided TA to the 2023 RGPH-5 including support for: the preparation of technical documents; the pilot mapping and enumeration; the implementation of the light pilot of the collection tools; the implementation of the verification for the identification of atypical designated areas, with a view to updating the census mapping; the completion of the census master count throughout the territory from April 25 to May 24, 2023; and the launch of the census post survey since September 10, 2023. • CPI: The CPI collection was expanded from Brazzaville to Pointe-Noire to cities of Dolisie, Ouesso and Owando. • Foreign trade statistics: Establishment of a permanent system for the collection and publication of foreign trade statistics; and understanding of customs procedures with the General Directorate of Customs and Domains; • Short-term statistics: The project supported the revitalization of the economic service, and since 2020, it produced nine short-term index bulletins which are available on the website. • National accounts: The publication of the 2005–2018 series of national accounts and the development of the provisional national accounts from 2019 to 2022. The project also financed a workshop on the development of national accounts classifications. • For agricultural statistics: A needs assessment of the statistical service of the Ministry of Agriculture and the development and publication of a manual of procedures for the production and dissemination of agricultural statistics, in accordance with international standards. Additionally, the project helped revise and validate agriculture survey technical documents, as well as the development of sampling frames for the upcoming surveys. • COVID-19 HFPS: The project provided TA and financing to design the survey, to purchase survey equipment, and to train trainers as part of the COVID-19 investigations technical team; training of enumerators; telephone data collection; and publication of the newsletters. Objective/Outcome 2: NSS strengthened in the dissemination of quality statistics relevant for policies and decision making 1. Increased share of statistical output available to users through the open data portal Outcome Indicators 2. Increased share of statistical products completed and published by the INS following international standards. 3. Number of UNSD Minimum List gender indicators available using data collected within the past 5 years 1. A functional web-based data portal enabling access to the NSS data is developed and deployed. Intermediate Results 2. Number of knowledge products on economic development issues produced with NSS data and disseminated to large Indicators audiences. Page 50 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) 3. Data useful to identify people affected by climate changes are collected through population census or household budget survey. Component 2: Improving the Production, Dissemination, and use of Statistics. Subcomponent 2.1: Data production and management • Economic and financial statistics: Report of the main indicators and the general report of REGEC are available on the INS website as well as the database which is also available at the INS. • CPI: 56 bulletins were produced by the NSI (from January 2018 to April 2022). • Foreign trade statistics: and publication of the regular bulletin of foreign trade statistics in goods for the first quarter of 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022. A total of 27 bulletins were produced, according to international norms and standards, over the period from 2018 to the second quarter of 2023 and publication of the fourth quarter of 2018 and first and second quarter of 2019 foreign trade bulletin. • National accounts: Publication of the 2005–2018 national accounts series and the 2019–2022 national accounts compilation. • Economic indicators: From 2020 to the second quarter of 2022, the INS published 10 bulletins on short-term Key Outputs by Component indicators. • EHCVM: A product catalog and a catalog at the national level for each department, that is, a total of 13 product (linked to the achievement catalogs. of the Objective/Outcome • For mining, oil, and gas statistics: The project financed a study on the sources of these statistics and developed an 2) action plan to promote the production and dissemination of reliable statistical information. • COVID-19 HFPS: Seven bulletins were issued for each of the surveys. The results of these surveys were used by different institutions or structures or chancelleries to mobilize funds to help vulnerable households during this period. • Production of statistical yearbooks: In 2018 three-line ministries and the twelve regional statistics offices produced and published statistical yearbooks for the first time, and the INS published national statistical year books of Congo for the years 2012, 2014 and 2018. Additionally, a 2014 statistical yearbook for the Likouala Department and the Congo statistical yearbook was based on departmental and sectoral directories. • Others: The report of the survey Impact of mobile telephones on the living conditions of households and support for the popularization of Congolese classifications of activities and products including the classification of individual consumption according to purpose and nomenclature of Congolese activities. Subcomponent 2.2: Dissemination and use of statistical information • TA to support the Poverty Observatory Page 51 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) • TA for the elaboration of the NDP for 2012–2022. • TA to support the Macroeconomic Framework Committee • The INS website renovated and functional. (https://ins-congo.cg) • The INS has a functional web-based data portal. (http://rcongo.opendataforafrica.org/) Objective/Outcome 3: Demand for statistical information promoted Outcome Indicators 1. Increased user satisfaction index Intermediate Results 1. Number of outreach thematic activities to key stakeholders, such as media, politicians, policy makers and academia Indicators Component 2: Improving the Production, Dissemination, and use of Statistics. Subcomponent 2.2: Dissemination and use of statistical information Key Outputs by Component • The conference of departmental directors of statistics in February 2016 and November 2017 and three meetings of (linked to the achievement the INS Management Committee in 2016, 2017, and 2018 were organized. of the Objective/Outcome • The INS celebrated the Annual African Statistics Day in 2016, 2019, 2020, and 2022, and during this celebration, 3) some of the activities were to popularize the principles of official statistics contained in the African Charter. • To promote the use of statistics, the project conducted two user satisfaction surveys in 2019 and 2022 focusing on central and decentralized public and private agencies and international organizations. Page 52 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS Name Role Preparation Franck M. Adoho Task Team Leader(s) Hector Pacheco Procurement Specialist(s) Abdoulaye Gadiere Social Specialist Supervision/ICR Mervy Ever Viboudoulou Vilpoux Task Team Leader(s) Lanssina Traore, Rose Caline Desruisseaux-Cadet Procurement Specialist(s) Francis Tasha Venayen Financial Management Specialist Senait Kassa Yifru Team Member Franck M. Adoho Team Member Yele Maweki Batana Team Member Melat Assefa Asfaw Team Member Albert Francis Atangana Ze Environmental Specialist Anclem Urielle Moukoubouka Nee Biniakounou Team Member Fabena Divine Babindamana Nee Niemet Gampika Social Specialist B. STAFF TIME AND COST Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY13 .600 2,688.14 FY14 27.170 179,664.29 Page 53 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) FY15 0 0.00 Total 27.77 182,352.43 Supervision/ICR FY15 15.102 110,072.81 FY16 21.126 162,900.53 FY17 20.311 156,351.54 FY18 27.199 206,260.23 FY19 25.464 151,742.92 FY20 28.886 167,922.38 FY21 36.388 171,849.30 FY22 33.458 190,847.47 FY23 18.231 127,265.11 FY24 7.561 33,126.20 Total 233.73 1,478,338.49 Page 54 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Amount at IDA Allocation Project Actual at AF1 AF2 Percentage of Components Approval at Approval Restructuring Project Closing (US$, millions) (US$, millions) Approval (US$, millions) (US$, millions) (US$, millions) (US$, millions) Component 1. Improving 6.60 0.96 8.90 12.80 13.10 12.25 95.42 the Institutional and Organizational Framework of the NSS Component 2. Improving 21.40 3.11 19.50 13.80 22.70 22.80 100.44 the Production, Dissemination, and Use of Statistics Component 3. Project 5.00 0.73 5.00 6.30 7.20 6.60 91.66 Management Total 33.00 4.80 33.40 32.90 43.00 41.60 96.74 Page 55 of !Syntax Error, ! The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) ANNEX 4. THEORY OF CHANGE AFTER RESTRUCTURINGS 1. At appraisal, the TOC considered a few key assumptions as follows: (a) The Government will provide counterpart financing for the project. (b) The Government will construct a building for the INS with its own budget. (c) Project focus on the INS and CASP will benefit the overall development of the NSS. (d) Enhanced HR capacity is central to the sustainability of the project. (e) Key data will be produced by the NSS staff with TA from international experts. (f) Smooth project management will contribute strongly to the attainment of the PDO. 2. However, during implementation, the counterpart financing for the project, and the construction of the INS were taken over by the project and therefore the assumptions were removed from the TOC. Figure 4.1. TOC at appraisal Page 56 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS 1. The client prepared its own ICR which summarized the project’s achievements. The report states the following as the most decisive contributions to the NSS: (i) the development of the NSS’s organizational and institutional framework, (ii) HR development (iii) the production of statistics in compliance with the code of good practice of the African Charter on Statistics, and (iv) enhancing the work environment, including both the physical space and organizational structure, for INS and CASP staff as well as CASP students. 2. The client acknowledges the relevance of the project by determining how well the project's objectives aligned with the needs of the NSS and the country's priorities for statistical information. It notes that this alignment was based on sector diagnoses and that the projects goals matched the government's expectations and policies, as well as those of technical and financial partners. It stated that these objectives have remained pertinent through restructuring and AF phases, continuing to address the goal of producing quality statistics and the broader aim of improving the NSS's organizational and institutional framework. 3. The client ICR report acknowledges that throughout the implementation period of the project, the rules related to procurement and financial management were respected. To this end, the last mission to support the implementation of the project carried out by the World Bank, from 05 to 09 June 2023, judged the project management, financial management and procurement to be satisfactory. 4. The client ICR report states that project sustainability is possible if the INS and the sectoral statistical services utilize the accomplishments, they made through the project to further enhance the NSS’s statistical output in terms of quantity and quality; and if there is a continued commitment of the Congolese Government to the statistics sector, including for example providing consistent funding. 5. The client ICR has documented a few lessons learned under the project as follows: (a) The Government planned to fund a substantial portion of project costs, despite the projects acknowledged high-risk status of the country's economic ability to co-finance 85.5% of the project's financing. The anticipated risk did occur, necessitating an AF. Moving forward, it would be prudent for such projects to receive full funding from partners. (b) The project's location within the INS was not greatly advantageous to the sectoral statistical services. The INS frequently gave preference to its own initiatives during planning, which reduced sector participation and lessened the initial excitement over time. Although a statistical system should function with mutual reliance and collaborative effort, the INS did not adequately serve as the NSS's technical coordinator, causing the sectoral units to work separately. (c) The project funded continuous training to develop the INS staff’s capabilities. Some INS staff received focused statistical trainings; however, the skills gap is still noticeable in certain areas that should have been given priority. Additionally, the sectoral statistical offices did not receive any support in this aspect, leading to a severe lack of skilled staff in some areas. The project did support the development of a training plan towards the end of the project; however, its execution was not feasible due to insufficient funds. Page 57 of 58 The World Bank CG-Statistics Capacity Building Project (P133731) ANNEX 6. MAP Page 58 of 58