Fragility & Conflict FFI Sub-Group –
Measuring counterfactuals in FCV contexts

               Jose Cuesta
           19 September 2024
                                     Three non-experimental methods
The basic concepts                   to measure “impacts�

• Externalities                       • Econometric/Statistical
                                         • E.g. the GDP cost of conflict
• Counterfactuals
                                      • Accounting
• Monetization
                                         • E.g. the fiscal cost of Venezuelan
• Key assumption: benefits = saved         migrants’ integration
  costs                               • Efficiency
                                         • E.g. the impact of aid on
                                           humanitarian crises
(practical) implications
Limitations
• Econometric/Statistical: Cross-country or time series analysis, not
  good for a particular project/intervention
• Accounting: Need good fiscal/project data, reasonably disaggregated
• Efficiency: Comparing to current ‘best’ not an ideal “best�
Possible “solutions�
• Rely on averages from literature (e.g. average cost of GDP of refugees
  vs average benefit of GDP at destination applied to intervention)
• Focus on understanding the counterfactual, not producing the cost or
  benefit estimates