FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: PPIAF000002 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION PROJECT PAPER ON A PROPOSED ADDITIONAL CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF EUR 86.8 MILLION (US$90.0 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF NIGER FOR THE ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY March 6, 2025 Transport Global Practice Western and Central Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Exchange Rate Effective January 31, 2025 Currency Unit = EUR EUR 0.9638 = US$1 FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 Regional Vice President: Ousmane Diagana Regional Director: Franz R. Drees-Gross Country Director: Clara Ana Coutinho De Sousa Practice Manager: Jean-Francois Marteau Task Team Leaders: Rima Aloulou, Noroarisoa Rabefaniraka, Papa Mamadou Fall The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY – ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AF Additional Financing AM Accountability Mechanism ANISER Niger Road Safety Agency (Agence Nigérienne de la Sécurité Routière) BNEE National Environmental Assessment Office (Bureau National des Evaluations Environnementales) CPF Country Partnership Framework ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return ENNCP Enhancing Niger Northeast Connectivity Project ESF Environmental and Social Framework ESRC Environmental and Social Risk Rating ESS Environmental and Social Standards GBV Gender-Based Violence GDP Gross Domestic Product GDPWC General Directorate for the Promotion of Women and Children GHG Greenhouse Gas GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism GRS Grievance Redress Service HEIS Hands-on Expanded Implementation Support IDA International Development Association LPI Logistics Performance Index MFD Maximizing Finance for Development MSV Mission of Supervision and Verification (Mission de Suivi Verification) NAP National Adaptation Plan NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NGO Non-governmental Organization NPV Net Present Value OPRC Output- and Performance-Based Road Contract PCE Private Capital Enabling PCU Project Coordination Unit PDO Project Development Objective RAP Resettlement Action Plans RED Roads Economic Decision Model RN National Road (Route Nationale) SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic SEA Sexual Exploitation and Abuse SH Sexual Harassment WAEMU West African Economic and Monetary Union WBG World Bank Group WHO World Health Organization TABLE OF CONTENTS I. BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR ADDITIONAL FINANCING ........................................................................... 1 II. DESCRIPTION OF ADDITIONAL FINANCING ........................................................................................................... 6 III. KEY RISKS .......................................................................................................................................................... 10 V. APPRAISAL SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................................... 12 VI. WORLD BANK GRIEVANCE REDRESS ................................................................................................................ 16 VI. PROPOSED CHANGES ........................................................................................................................................... 17 VII. DETAILED CHANGE(S) ........................................................................................................................................... 17 ANNEX 1: Detailed Project Costs – IDA financing........................................................................................................ 36 ANNEX 2: Project Map.................................................................................................................................................. 37 ANNEX 3: Description of OPRC Arrangement under the Parent Project and Proposed Changes under AF ............. 38 ANNEX 4: Proposed Changes to the Results Framework ............................................................................................ 39 ANNEX 5: Visual Description of Support Provided to Women-Led Associations under Subcomponent 2.2 ............ 42 ANNEX 6: Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation ............................................................................................... 43 ANNEX 7: Economic Analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 48 ANNEX 8: Revised Theory of Change ........................................................................................................................... 53 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY – ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@afaprbasicdata#doctemplate OPERATION INFORMATION BASIC DATA - MAIN Product Information - ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY (P171793) Operation ID Product/Financing Instrument P171793 Investment Project Financing (IPF) Task Team Leaders Rima Aloulou, Noroarisoa Rabefaniraka, Papa Mamadou Fall Beneficiary Country/Countries Geographical Identifier Niger Niger Requesting Unit Responsible Unit AWCW3 (278) IAWT4 (9978) Approval Date Closing Date 02-Mar-2021 28-Sep-2029 Practice Area (Lead) Approval Fiscal year Transport 2021 Environmental and Social Risk Classification (ESRC) High Is there collaboration between Bank and IFC? No Implementing Agency Ministry of Equipment IMPLEMENTATION MODALITIES – MAIN Situations of Urgent Need of Assistance or Capacity Constraints [✓✓✓] Fragile State(s) [ ] Fragile within a non-fragile Country [ ] Small State(s) [ ] Conflict [ ] Responding to Natural or Man-made Disaster i The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY – ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) Other Situations [ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [✓✓✓] Contingent Emergency Response Component [ ] Performance-Based Conditions (PBCs) (CERC) [ ] Alternative Procurement Arrangements (APA) [ ] Hands-on Expanded Implementation Support (HEIS) @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@afaproperationstatus#doctemplate OPERATION STATUS Development Objective (DO) Development Objective (Approved as part of Approval package on 02-Mar-2021) The proposed Project Development Objective (PDO) is (i) to enhance connectivity and road safety along the Zinder - Agadez road section in Northeastern Niger through the rehabilitation of the Tanout – Tiguidit road segment and maintenance of the full Zinder - Agadez section, and (ii) to improve access to basic socio-economic infrastructure for selected communities, along the Zinder - Agadez road section. Key Information from Last ISR Operation Ratings NAME IMPLEMENTATION LAST ISR RATINGS 06-Dec-2022 16-Jun-2023 12-Oct-2023 05-Jun-2024 20-Oct-2024 Progress towards ⚫ Moderately ⚫ Moderately ⚫ Moderately ⚫ Moderately ⚫ Moderately achievement of Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory PDO Overall ⚫ Moderately ⚫ Moderately ⚫ Moderately ⚫ Moderately ⚫ Moderately Implementation Unsatisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Progress (IP) Overall Risk ⚫ High ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial Overall ESS ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ Moderately ⚫ Satisfactory Performance Satisfactory Financial ⚫ Satisfactory ⚫ Satisfactory ⚫ Satisfactory ⚫ Satisfactory ⚫ Satisfactory Management Project ⚫ Moderately ⚫ Moderately ⚫ Moderately ⚫ Moderately ⚫ Satisfactory Management Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Procurement ⚫ Moderately ⚫ Satisfactory ⚫ Moderately ⚫ Moderately ⚫ Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Monitoring and ⚫ Satisfactory ⚫ Satisfactory ⚫ Satisfactory ⚫ Satisfactory ⚫ Satisfactory Evaluation ii The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY – ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) Disbursement Summary (in USD million) Source of Funds Net Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed IBRD -- -- -- 0 IDA 154.60 37.04 118.12 23.87 Grants -- -- -- 0 @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@afaprprocessing#doctemplate BASIC DATA – ADDITIONAL FINANCING Additional Financing No. 1 Additional Financing Type [✓] Activities are being added to expand the scope of the operation, perhaps in geography or in outputs (Scale-up) The operation has incurred increased costs due to inflation, exchange rate changes, and factors that were not [✓] anticipated at appraisal (Cost-overrun) The operation has experienced shortfalls in co-financing, counterpart financing, or cost recovery that were [ ] anticipated at appraisal but did not materialize. (Financing gap) The design of the operation has changed, and the new designs cost more than the original ones (Change in [ ] Project Design) Expected Approval Date Review Type/Corporate Review Level 27-Mar-2025 Regular Decision Meeting (DM) Will consulting services be required? Is this an Urgent Need or Capacity Constraint request? Yes No IMPLEMENTATION MODALITIES – ADDITIONAL FINANCING Situations of Urgent Need of Assistance or Capacity Constraints [✓✓✓] Fragile State(s) [ ] Fragile within a non-fragile Country [ ] Small State(s) [ ] Conflict [ ] Responding to Natural or Man-made Disaster Other Situations iii The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY – ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) [ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [✓✓✓] Contingent Emergency Response Component [ ] Performance-Based Conditions (PBCs) (CERC) [ ] Alternative Procurement Arrangements (APA) [ ] Hands-on Expanded Implementation Support (HEIS) @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@afaprcostfinancing#doctemplate COSTS & FINANCING Summary (Total Financing in US$, Millions) Proposed Last Approved Additional Cancellation Total Total Operation Cost 175.20 90.45 0.00 265.65 Total Financing 175.20 90.45 0.00 265.65 Of which IBRD/IDA 175.00 90.00 0.00 265.00 Financing Gap 0.00 0.00 Financing Details (in US$, Millions) Proposed Source Last Approved Additional Cancellation Total Counterpart Funding 0.20 0.45 0.00 0.65 Borrower/Recipient 0.20 0.45 0.00 0.65 International Development 175.00 90.00 0.00 265.00 Association (IDA) IDA Credit 122.50 90.00 0.00 212.50 IDA Grant 52.50 0.00 0.00 52.50 Total Financing 175.20 90.45 0.00 265.65 IDA Resources (in US$, Millions)- Additional Financing Credit Grant SML Guarantee Total Niger 90.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 90.00 iv The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY – ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) National Performance- 90.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 90.00 Based Allocations (PBA) Scale-Up Window 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (SUW) Total 90.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 90.00 @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@afaprsort#doctemplate SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK- RATING TOOL (SORT) Last Approved Rating Risk Category Proposed Rating (ISR Seq. 08) Package - 20 Oct 2024 Political and Governance ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial Macroeconomic ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial Sector Strategies and Policies ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Substantial Institutional Capacity for ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial Implementation and Sustainability Fiduciary ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial Environment and Social ⚫ High ⚫ High Stakeholders ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial Other ⚫ ⚫ Substantial Overall ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@afaprclimate#doctemplate CLIMATE Climate Change and Disaster Screening Has this operation been screened for short-term and long-term climate change and disaster risks? Yes, it has been screened and the results are discussed in the Appraisal Document Where risks exist, have potential resilience-enhancing measures been identified in the appraisal document? Yes Does this operation address specific risks, vulnerabilities, gaps or needs with respect to Climate Change that are identified in the SCD or the CPF? Yes v The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY – ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) Greenhouse Gas Emissions Accounting and Shadow Price of Carbon Gross Emissions Net Emissions (annual average, Net Emissions (economic lifetime, tCO2e) (economic lifetime, tCO2e/year) tCO2e) 41901.0000000000 2095.0000000000 289388.0000000000 Has the operation applied the Shadow Price of Carbon in the Economic Analysis? Yes POLICY COMPLIANCE Does the operation depart from the CPF in content or in other significant No respects? Does the operation require any waivers from Bank policies? No @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@afaprteam#doctemplate TEAM Core Team Name Role Specialization ADM Responsible? Rima Aloulou Team Leader Sr Transport Specialist Yes Noroarisoa Rabefaniraka Team Leader Senior Transport Specialist No Papa Mamadou Fall Team Leader Lead Transport Specialist No Financial Management Donald Herrings Mphande Financial Management Yes Specialist Financial Management Tahirou Kalam Governance specialist No Specialist Khadija Faridi Procurement Specialist Procurement specialist Yes Salifou Abdou Dan Baba Procurement Specialist Procurement specialist No Ibrah Hachimou Environmental Specialist Environmental Specialist Yes Yves Bertrand Koudjou Social Specialist Social specialist Yes Tatang Elena Segura Labadia Counsel Senior councel No Nesrine Akrouti Ep Procurement Team Civil engineer specialist No Kachouri vi The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY – ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) Grace Bertille G Nzue Procurement Team Overall Support No Lisa Warouw Team Member Team Member No Cedric Cubahiro Team Member Finance Analyst No Mahaman Mourtala Team Member Transport Specialist No Mamoudou Abdoussalam Cassandra Augusma Team Member Gender Specialist No Wendsongda Patrick Team Member Infrastructure Specialist No Kabore Puja Guha Team Member Infrastructure Specialist No Dodo Oumarou Farouk Team Member Team member No Alhousseini Sidi Maria Joao Dos Anjos Team Member Climate Specialist No Ribeiro Cordeiro vii The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) I. BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR ADDITIONAL FINANCING A. Introduction 1. This Project Paper seeks Board approval of an Additional Financing (AF) of US$90 million equivalent IDA credit for the Enhancing Niger Northeast Connectivity Project (ENNCP) (the project, P171793, Credit IDA-68400-001 & IDA-68390- 001, Grant IDA-D7800-001). This is in response to a request from the Government of Niger to the World Bank dated October 16, 2024. The proposed AF will also include a level 2 restructuring of the parent project. 2. The ENNCP was approved by the World Bank Board of Executive Directors on March 2, 2021, and declared effective on September 22, 2021, with a total financing of US$175 million. Through the proposed AF, the project will continue to support the strategy of the Government to improve connectivity within Niger by facilitating the safe movement of people and goods on key lifeline road corridors. This includes rehabilitation and maintenance works along National Road 11 (RN 11), commonly known as the Trans-Saharan corridor, connecting the southern part of the country with the northern For Official Use Only regions, as initially planned under the parent project. B. Project Background Country and Sector Context 3. The agriculture sector, which contributes to about 40 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) on average, is central to Niger’s socio-economic development, and is highly vulnerable to climate shocks, leading to volatile economic growth. Although irrigation has increased in recent years, rain-fed agriculture remains the bedrock of the sector, further exposing it to climate shocks. For instance, weak growth of 1.4 percent in 2021 due to poor rainfall was followed by strong growth of 11.9 percent in 2022 due to a better-than-average rainy season. With limited improvements in productivity and high population growth, over half the population lives in extreme poverty, aggravated by gender disparities, with some of the weakest human capital development indicators globally.1 4. The country’s political context is characterized by the unconstitutional regime change that occurred in July 2023, which was followed by economic sanctions, border closures and a large reduction in financing. The financial and economic sanctions (particularly affecting the availability of necessities, pharmaceuticals, and electricity) imposed by the Economic Community of West-African States (ECOWAS) on Niger after the change in government, were lifted on February 24, 2024. However, effects linger: (i) external financing remains below the level of July 2023, contributing to lower government revenue; and (ii) related economic difficulties. 5. Landlocked conditions and high costs of doing business obstruct Niger’s development prospects. Despite efforts by the government, transport costs remain high especially due to insufficient road maintenance, numerous roadblocks, and limited competition in the freight trucking sector. In the most recent 2018 Logistics Performance Index (LPI), Niger scored 2 out of a maximum score of 5, ranking 157th out of 160 countries; in 2016, the country ranked 100th.2 This score is also well below the average LPI of 2.39 for sub-Saharan Africa. 6. Niger is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, which damage road infrastructure, affect transport connectivity, and contribute to food insecurity and fragility. Niger ranks 185 out of 187 countries in the 2022 Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative Country Vulnerability Index, indicating that it is one of the most vulnerable countries 1 Source: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/niger/overview 2 The most recent LPI was completed in 2023, but it did not include Niger. The most recent LPI that included Niger was completed in 2018. Page 1 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) in the world and has low ability to adapt to climate change impacts.3 Niger is one of the hottest and driest countries in the world and is already experiencing severe droughts and heat waves that result in chronic food insecurity and social tensions.4 Niger’s arid climate is inducive to the movement of sand dunes and sandstorms, causing encroachment into farmland, transport infrastructure, and drainage systems, and adding to infrastructure maintenance requirements. Climate change is expected to aggravate the situation, with temperatures projected to increase by 1.6–2.9°C by 2050; it will also cause higher rainfall variability, thus increasing the frequency and severity of droughts, heat waves, and floods.5 Rising temperatures increase water scarcity, reduce soil moisture, increase erosion and plant damage, increase crop failure, reduce yields, and increase the incidence of pests and diseases, which impacts agriculture and livestock breeding—important sources of food and livelihoods for the local communities. Communities become more reliant on the road network and trade to access food and mitigate food insecurity. Roads are sensitive to extreme heat, which deteriorates the quality of pavements and shoulders, reducing travel speeds and increasing travel times. Extreme heat increases the need for road repairs, generating asset downtime during maintenance and rehabilitation activities. Flooding can damage culverts, road pavements, foundations, and shoulders due to the erosive force of water and debris and can result in road closures during flooding and for repair and reconstruction of damaged sections. Sand, dust storms, and For Official Use Only dune migration require roads to be cleaned, and culverts cleared more frequently, resulting in road closures and adding to maintenance costs.6 7. Road transport is by far the most dominant transport mode in Niger, 7 and RN 11 is the main transport axis connecting the cities of Agadez and Zinder. The Agadez–Zinder road segment is a 425-kilometer (km) section of RN 11, one of Niger’s key transport axes and part of the Trans-Saharan corridor. RN 11 is a major national trade route through which the northeastern region of Agadez receives agricultural goods from the southern regions of Maradi and Zinder, and through which the southern regions receive livestock from the north. The dominant economic activity along the RN 11 axis is the primary sector (agriculture and livestock), followed by small-scale commerce. 8. In Niger, the funding level for road maintenance is still not adequate despite successfully implemented reforms that ensure the commercialized management of road assets. A recently established Second Generation Road Maintenance Fund8 collects about US$20 million annually through a fuel levy, tolling fees, and fines for overloaded trucks to finance periodic and routine maintenance and emergency works, for the total network of 22,787 km. These funds barely cover the routine maintenance needs of the network and fall short of covering needed periodic maintenance to extend the life of key infrastructure. Because of the limited funds for road maintenance, the focus should be on the high- priority core network in terms of delivery of goods between regional centers, such as the RN 11. Furthermore, the overloading of trucks is an ongoing issue in Niger; it contributes tremendously to the rapid deterioration of roads and significantly increases the risk of road accidents, especially with an aging fleet (the average age is 25 years). 9. Niger faces substantial road safety challenges. These challenges are evidenced by high rates of road crash fatalities and injuries. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Status Report on Road Safety 2023, Niger ranks among the countries with the highest road crash records, with 6,278 estimated total road traffic fatalities, equivalent to 3 ND-GAIN Country Vulnerability Index. Country Rankings: Scores for 2022. Consulted on September 13, 2024. https://gain.nd.edu/our- work/country-index/rankings/. 4 USAID. 2014. Climate Change and Conflict in the Sahel: Findings from Niger and Burkina Faso . https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/Sahel_Case_Study.pdf. 5 ThinkHazard website, consulted on July 2024. https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/181-niger. 6 GRID Engineers. 2024. Component 4: Deep Dive 3: Niger. Regional Decarbonization and Resilience Assessment of Rural Logistics and Accessibility in the Sahel. 7 Railway and inland water transport account for less than 5 percent of the market. 8 The fund has been designed to (i) better secure road maintenance resources and (ii) introduce more accountability to road users, through mandatory financial and technical audits, private sector participation in its supervisory board, and a performance contract for the managing director. Page 2 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) an estimated rate of 25 fatalities per 100,000 population. Official statistics from ANISER (Niger Road Safety Agency or Agence Nigérienne de la Sécurité Routière) for the same period indicate that Niger recorded over 1,075 road traffic deaths, highlighting the underreporting challenge that the country is facing. Between September 2023 and January 2025, the Zinder–Agadez corridor reported a total of 51 accidents, resulting in 19 deaths and 48 serious injuries. Of these accidents, 71 percent (36 accidents) were related to human behavior (primarily excess speed) 9 versus 6 percent (4 accidents) related to road works and conditions.10 10. Gender disparities remain in Niger, particularly in human capital and access to economic opportunities. The Gender Inequality Index for the country stands at 0.609, ranking Niger 154th out of 170 countries in 2022,11 due to gender gaps in access to health care, education, and economic opportunities. The labor force participation rate among females is 62.3 percent compared to 84.3 percent among males.12 In the transport sector, these numbers are striking, with females holding 0.42 percent of jobs while males hold 99.57 percent13 (2022 data), a situation that makes many women turn to self-employment through income-generating activities, especially in the project areas. However, recent consultations with women-led associations and cooperatives revealed that women in the project areas face several challenges when it For Official Use Only comes to creating income-generating activities. These challenges are primarily as follows: (i) limited financial resources to generate more income and create more economic opportunities for women in their communities and in sectors with strong participation of women such as artisanal work and textile and meat/dairy production; (ii) poor business literacy and leadership skills to sustain the activities of women-led associations and cooperatives; (iii) lack of dry and cold storage to respectively preserve agricultural products and meat; (iv) lack of equipment for agricultural transformation; and (v) lack of multifunctional platforms that could also serve as mini shops to sell women’s products, considering that the nomadic way of living coupled with insecurity in the project areas make it difficult for women to use village markets on a regular basis. Summary of Project Implementation and Results to Date 11. The project implementation has been mostly moderately satisfactory. Three years after project effectiveness (including 10 months of suspension, from August 2023 to May 2024), the project has disbursed 24 percent of the proceeds of the financing as of February 28, 2025. Eighty-five percent (US$140 million) of the project funds are committed through the two large Output- and Performance-Based Road Contracts (OPRCs) under implementation, as well as the supplemental technical and monitoring support activities. Overall, Environmental and Social Standards (ESS) performance is Moderately Satisfactory, and Overall Risk is Substantial. The project is in compliance with legal covenants and financial audit requirements. There are no suspensions or audit issues; there is no outstanding audit report, and there are no major issues related to financial management (FM), procurement, and ESS. The Project Coordination Unit (PCU) is fully staffed and coordinates well with the other entities involved. 12. To date, the project has already achieved its targets for two PDO indicators out of three: (a) travel time from Zinder to Agadez (425 km) has reduced from 19 to the end target of 5 hours; and (b) the project has provided 28,153 dwellers with enhanced access to transportation services along the corridor. These results were achieved despite the project experiencing several difficulties, namely delays in the procurement process for the OPRCs and the retendering of lot 2, 9 Other human-related causes include skidding, overtaking, mixed-vehicle traffic, overloading, wrong maneuvers, driver fatigue, carelessness, etc. 10 Also worth noting is that all contracted works under the parent project are implemented in accordance with a Traffic Management Plan. In addition, both OPRCs apply penalties to the contractor if the road safety performance criteria are not implemented; these criteria are assessed monthly. 11 UNDP Human Development Reports. Gender Inequality Index (GII). https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/thematic-composite-indices/gender- inequality-index#/indicies/GII. 12 World Bank Gender Data portal. 2022. Niger. https://genderdata.worldbank.org/en/economies/niger. 13 International Labour Organization. 2022. ILOSTAT Data Explorer. https://rshiny.ilo.org/dataexplorer0/?lang=en&segment=indicator&id=EAP_2WAP_SEX_AGE_RT_A. Page 3 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) as well as ten months of pause in disbursement following the events of July 26, 2023. 13. Good progress is noted in the implementation of social and environmental safeguard measures. The grievance redress mechanism (GRM) is operational. The non-governmental organization (NGO) recruited in the last quarter of 2022 for Gender-Based Violence (GBV) monitoring has carried out an exhaustive mapping of service providers in the project area, followed by awareness campaigns along the corridor, with the support of local focal points, facilitators, and trained community relays. However, this important work could be slowed down by a recent ministerial decree that has suspended the agreement with the NGO. The PCU has taken interim steps14 to maintain and continue this important work along the corridor and within the contractor company for civil works. 14. Road improvement activities under the project are carried out using an OPRC with a design, build, maintain, and transfer approach in two packages (lot 1 and lot 2). Implementation of the OPRC for lot 1 (in the region of Zinder) started in September 2022. To date, maintenance works have been carried out on the entire section of 254.3 km (lot 1), along with rehabilitation of the first 26 km section, which was completed on October 27, 2023. Rehabilitation works of about 7 km on a second section are almost complete, and earthworks have started on about 35 km. A flood area where the For Official Use Only water level exceeded the level of the roadway after the most recent rainy season was observed, and stronger resilience measures are being taken into consideration in the works design. The contract for lot 2 started on May 15, 2023. The contractor has been remobilized in the aftermath of the suspension. However, these delays are not expected to hamper delivery of the rehabilitation works for the first section (22 km) on the 109-km-long section of the corridor between Aderbissinat and Tiguidit, scheduled for April 2025. This is because payments under the OPRC are output based, with strong incentives for timely delivery. Synergies with Other Programs and Projects 15. The AF complements the Niger Rural Mobility and Connectivity Project (P164498), which is financing about 446 km of rural roads rehabilitation by addressing financing gaps and needs to scale up the parent project in the northeast part of the country. Finally, these interventions will also improve climate resilience, road safety, and security along the Trans- Saharan and other national corridors. 16. As with the parent project, the AF reinforces the most recent Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) report (2024)15 to address the low productivity of the agricultural sector and support access to transport and climate resilience. As such, the AF complements other World Bank–financed projects such as the Regional Sahel Pastoralism Support Project II (P173197), the Livestock and Agriculture Modernization Project (P179276), and the Integrated Water Security Platform Project (P174414). The design of the AF builds on and leverages lessons learned in World Bank projects such as the Agricultural and Livestock Transformation Project (P164509), the Niger Skills Development for Growth Project (P126049), the Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (P163157), and the Sahel Women’s Empowerment and Demographics Project (P159980). Also worth noting is the synergy with the Southern Niger Connectivity and Integration Project (P179770), which will finance investments in road asset management and the RN 1 corridor, which passes east to west through the country, including Zinder. This complements ENNCP’s investments in RN 11, which traverses the northeast of the country from south to north. Lessons Learned and Incorporated into AF Design 17. While OPRCs have several advantages, considerable implementation challenges accompany these. The Zinder– 14 An action plan was put in place under the parent project and validated by the World Bank for each PCU of the portfolio that had contracts with the suspended NGO. The PCU and the General Directorate for the Protection of Women and Children are responsible for its implementation until the hiring of a new NGO. 15 World Bank. 2024. Streamlined SCD: Niger. Page 4 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) Agadez road section faces significant environmental challenges such as flooding, sand and dust storms, and dune migration, which lead to frequent road closures and the ongoing need for repairs. These factors make the road a high maintenance asset, requiring effective management. As such, the parent project used OPRCs that include climate- informed operational performance criteria, such as no silting of the roadway and the deployment of emergency works, to manage these challenges. This contract type has helped reduce long-term disruptions and shorten periods of road closures, as seen during the August 2024 flooding.16 However, this type of contract requires good technical, engineering, and management capacities that go beyond those normally needed for the execution of traditional road works contracts. OPRCs require a paradigm shift in contract preparation, implementation, and supervision. Further, they require a solid road asset management culture that is not yet available in Niger.17 Finally, given capacity constraints in Niger, the length and magnitude of works under a new OPRC would require engagement of a foreign contractor. Alternatively, use of a design and build contract will allow for subsequent maintenance works to be conducted by a local contractor, thereby better supporting the local industry. 18. Additionally, these contracts were implemented for a shorter duration than best practice and what was initially For Official Use Only planned under the parent project (eight years). Due to delays in procurement and the halt in disbursements, the duration of OPRCs for both lot 1 and lot 2 were reduced respectively to seven and six years to match the parent project closing date. A two-year extension of these contracts would allow for the full benefit of their impact and for additional funds under Subcomponent 1.1 to be incorporated to ensure completion of the OPRCs on the section from Zinder to Tiguidit within the ten-year duration recommended according to international best practices. 18 Design and build contracting will be used for rehabilitation of the Tiguidit–Agadez segment to be financed under the AF (as selected by the client), while allowing the Niger road administration to continue experimenting with OPRCs for the segment from Zinder to Tiguidit (begun under the parent project and continued under the AF). C. Rationale 19. Rehabilitation of the Tiguidit–Agadez road section (62 km) of RN 11 was originally completed in 201919 but has deteriorated rapidly; as such, the AF will mainly support rehabilitation of this road segment. Initially, this section was to be maintained under lot 2 financed by the project under Component 1. This deterioration is due to the use of design and technical standards that were not sufficiently adapted to the local climate conditions. The poor quality of works amplified these flaws, aggravated by exposure to extreme temperatures and flooding related to climate change.20 To ensure an adequate level of service along the corridor, this section needs to be restored to maintainable standards. These standards include climate change adaptation measures to ensure better resilience going forward. By including these adaptation measures in the technical design of these rehabilitation works, the AF will also mitigate the risk of similar deterioration happening again. 16 OPRC ensures the day-to-day management and maintenance of the road during that period. Contractors are not paid directly for “inputs” or physical works, but for achieving specified service levels, i.e. the rehabilitation of the road to pre-defined technical and quality standards, the maintenance service of ensuring predefined service levels on the roads under contract, and specific improvements such as road safety enhancements and measures to increase climate resilience, all representing outputs or outcomes. A monthly lump-sum remuneration paid to the contractor covers all physical and non-physical maintenance services provided by the contractor, except for unforeseen emergency works, which are remunerated separately. The OPRCs will also include pavement strengthening in year seven and eight of the contract, which should ensure that the road would resist the traffic load and remain in good condition for about another eight years after the end of the project. 17 The World Bank team is providing substantial technical support to the client in the specific area of OPRC, including through Hands-on Expanded Implementation Support (HEIS). 18 Under the current OPRC, lot 2 (see Annex 3 for further detail) will be reduced to cover only Aderbissinat to Tiguidit. 19 Financing provided by European Regional Development Fund. 20 ACAPS. 2024. Niger Flooding. Briefing Note. 20240830_ACAPS_Briefing_note_Flooding_in_Niger.pdf. Page 5 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) 20. To ensure the sustainability of ENNCP’s outcomes, significant additional efforts are also needed to improve Niger’s management of its road assets. Some of the main issues identified are as follows: (i) the need for improved fiscal coverage of road asset management integrating climate resilience considerations for the Zinder–Agadez RN 11 corridor, including toll booths and weighing stations; (ii) the need for improved all-weather feeder road access for local communities; and (iii) the need for better targeted activities to support female empowerment in the area of influence of the RN 11 corridor. These needs are addressed as part of the activities envisioned under the AF and within project’s reach. Additionally, the road asset management institutions for the country will be supported under the Southern Niger Connectivity and Integration Project (P179770)21 to enable better long-term maintenance planning and financing. 21. Based on the above background, an AF of US$90 million equivalent is proposed, on the one hand to cover minor cost overruns related to price adjustments on the current OPRCs and on the other hand to scale up project activities, integrate climate resilience considerations, and therefore maximize the positive impacts of the project. The scale-up will improve the Trans-Saharan corridor’s sustainability and climate resilience through (i) rehabilitation of the Tiguidit– For Official Use Only Agadez section; and (ii) improvements in access to basic socioeconomic infrastructure for selected communities in Northeastern Niger. 22. Alternatives considered. Given the World Bank’s financing under the parent project, the Government has requested additional financing from the World Bank for the Tiguidit-Agadez segment. The security situation of this area in Niger is fragile, and the project implementors and the World Bank have already built momentum with key stakeholders to facilitate implementation. II. DESCRIPTION OF ADDITIONAL FINANCING A. Changes to Parent Project 23. Changes to the parent project as part of this restructuring are summarized as follows: (a) revision of the Project Development Objective (PDO) to simplify the language and ensure an appropriate focus on climate resilience; (b) streamlining the results framework and retrofitting corporate scorecard indicators to better measure the progress, performance, and achievement of results of key additional activities; and (c) revision of the closing date with a two-year extension to September 26, 2031. B. Project Development Objective and AF Outcomes 24. As noted above, the PDO language is revised to the following: “to enhance climate-resilient connectivity and road safety and to improve access to basic socioeconomic infrastructure for selected communities in Northeastern Niger.”22 23 Additionally, the results framework is revised to capture the proposed AF as well as the restructuring of the parent project. The project (including the AF) is expected to serve over 100,000 beneficiaries relative to a total population of 21 Planned for World Bank Board approval this fiscal year. 22 “Climate-resilient connectivity” is defined as roads that are usable year-round and in all-weather conditions, as their rehabilitation, upgrading, and maintenance are informed by current and projected climate conditions and address climate change impacts such as extreme heat, sandstorms, changing rainfall patterns, droughts, and flood episodes. “Climate-resilient access to basic socioeconomic infrastructure” is defined as year-round all-weather access to socioeconomic infrastructure, which has also been constructed considering current and projected climate conditions and integrating best practices for climate change adaptation in their designs and operations. 23 Per discussions with the client, “Northeastern Niger” is defined as Zinder and Agadez Regions. Page 6 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) approximately 5.9 million within Zinder and Agadez Regions. C. Components and Costs 25. Revised Component 1: Road reconstruction, maintenance, and safety improvements along the Zinder–Agadez road section (Original project—US$133 million equivalent; AF allocation—US$58 million equivalent). Under the parent project, this component supports (i) reconstruction and rehabilitation of the 226-km RN 11 section connecting Tanout and Tiguidit and (ii) performance-based management and maintenance contracts for the 425-km RN 11 section connecting Zinder and Agadez.24 Additionally, the component includes support to road safety along the Zinder–Agadez road section by strengthening institutional capacity and improving road safety conditions using the international “safe system approach” (Subcomponent 1.2). Activities included in the AF under this component are described below. 26. Changes to Subcomponent 1.1: Rehabilitation and maintenance of the Zinder–Agadez section (AF allocation— For Official Use Only US$51 million equivalent). Under the AF, the volume of investment under Subcomponent 1.1 will be increased to finance rehabilitation of the 62-km road segment on the RN 11 connecting Tiguidit to Agadez to safe and climate-resilient standards,25 using design and build financing as noted above. The road section is critical for connectivity and is in poor condition due to high vulnerability and exposure to climate change-related natural hazards such as extreme temperatures, floods, and dune migration. These works will include rehabilitation of the Tiguidit–Agadez section (including management of sand dune migration before and during construction), along with supervision and a 10 percent contingency. The AF allocation for this subcomponent will also address budget needs for an additional two years of climate-informed maintenance works26 for lots 1 and 2 of the road segments from Zinder to Tiguidit. Finally, under this subcomponent the AF will address a minor cost overrun in the Zinder–Tiguidit road segment due to adjustments of costs of the ongoing OPRC to incorporate price escalations resulting from the 10-month suspension of World Bank operations. As a result of these works, vehicles will be able to travel the full RN 11 corridor from Zinder to Agadez, reestablishing climate-adaptive year-round connectivity and enhancing road resilience to future climate shocks. 27. Changes to Subcomponent 1.2: Road safety improvement program along the Zinder–Agadez road section (AF allocation—US$2 million equivalent). The AF intends to scale up road safety enhancement on the Zinder–Tanout section 27 in coordination with ANISER through the following additional activities: (i) provisions for road security equipment (e.g., horizontal and vertical signaling, etc.)28 and (ii) carrying out a focused program on speed management through the purchase and installation of relevant speed management equipment, including mobile radars. 28. Addition of Subcomponent 1.3: Long-term management and sustainability of the RN 11 corridor (AF allocation— US$5 million equivalent). To improve the long-term maintenance, climate resilience, and environmental sustainability of the RN 11 corridor, the AF will support the installation of weighing stations and toll booths across the corridor as part of a new Subcomponent 1.3. These investments will generate funds for the road maintenance fund (Fond d’Entretien Routier) and ensure appropriate commercial usage of the road and climate-informed asset management. Appropriate 24 Following effectiveness of the AF, the OPRC contracts will be revised to 363km. 25 Climate-resilient standards are informed by current and projected climate conditions, and address climate change impacts related to extreme heat, sandstorms, changing rainfall patterns, droughts, and floods. The climate-resilient standards encompass adjustments in infrastructure design as well as the deployment of targeted protection measures, including grey infrastructure, nature-based solutions, and soft measures along the transport asset lifecycle framework that cover: (i) systems planning; (ii) engineering design; (iii) operations and maintenance; (iv) contingency programing; and (v) institutional capacity and cooperation. 26 See Lessons Learned section. 27 Section originally completed under European Regional Development Fund financing in 2019 and currently under maintenance through the OPRC. 28 The enhancement of road signaling on the Zinder–Tanout section will be based on the recommendations of road safety inspections and audits conducted in October 2023 on the Zinder–Agadez corridor and funded by the Global Road Safety Facility. Page 7 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) use of the road will help ensure its climate resilience and sustainability. As such, these investments will also help ensure the environmentally sustainable usage of the Zinder–Agadez section of the RN 11 corridor. 29. Component 2: Improved accessibility and community infrastructure along the Zinder–Agadez road section (Original project—US$32 million equivalent; AF allocation—US$28 million equivalent). Under the parent project, this component aims to strengthen the climate and economic resilience of populations29 living along the Zinder–Agadez section of RN 11 by financing approximately 100 km of rural access roads, small community infrastructure along this corridor, and capacity-building activities to strengthen knowledge and skills for women. Improvements to community infrastructure and accessibility (via rural feeder roads) are expected to amplify project benefits for the local population and build local community engagement and ownership. Discussions with potential beneficiaries and female community groups highlighted the need to better define the project activities to support women’s empowerment under the parent project. Activities such as “creation of community multimedia centers (equipped with computers, a mini-Wi-Fi network, payment terminals; etc.) and related training for local communities” are dropped, as they are disconnected from the reality on the ground. Efforts aiming to promote women’s employment in road construction and maintenance will continue through For Official Use Only the introduction of an intervention aiming to support women in acquiring technical skills via certified training related to road construction and maintenance in partnership with a technical and vocational education and training institution. The initial indicator on women’s employment is dropped considering the strong cultural barriers, the nomadic way of living, insecurity in the project area, and a lack of women with the required skills to perform these jobs. Activities included in the AF under this component are described below. No changes are proposed to the existing Subcomponent 2.3 from the parent project. 30. Changes to Subcomponent 2.1: Improved climate-adaptive accessibility (AF allocation—US$23 million equivalent). The AF will finance the construction and/or rehabilitation to climate-resilient standards of an additional 200 km of primary and secondary access rural roads in northeastern Niger to support the development of nearby rural communities. These feeder roads are essential to enable climate-adaptive, all-weather community access to the RN 11 corridor, thereby connecting communities to social and economic infrastructure (e.g., cattle markets, water points, schools, health centers, and markets). This improved access to critical social and economic infrastructure will also help contribute to improving social cohesion and inclusion, thereby addressing the fragility of the area and contributing to peace and stability.30 As such, this investment will strengthen the climate and economic resilience of the local population beyond climate-proofing these investments and will ensure transformational effects that protect rural communities from pervasive climate change effects. 31. Subcomponent 2.2: Community support for women (Original project—US$650,000 [budget reallocated from original project]; AF allocation—US$5 million equivalent). Under the AF, this subcomponent will finance key socioeconomic infrastructure in northeastern Niger within Zinder and Agadez Regions. Selection of the infrastructure to be financed will emphasize enabling access to basic services and economic opportunities for women. Infrastructure will be prioritized according to a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) that includes climate change considerations (e.g., hazard levels, exposure, and vulnerability of the current infrastructure), the number of women, the total population served, etc.31 As 29 Populations along the Agadez–Zinder road section live predominantly in the transhumant and nomadic pastoralism livelihood zone and are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The main sources of income of poor pastoralists are contracts herding small stock, sales of dairy products, and work in the townships. Climate change has exacerbated the poor agriculture yields and pastures, drying up of the key water points, and localized rain failure, forcing the population to take animals away to seasonal grazing areas, which usually creates conflict over resources with the farmers in those areas. There is a dire need for water points, grazing lands, and government services for animal trade along this national road in order to protect the livelihoods of the population. 30 UNOPS. 2020. Infrastructure and Peacebuilding: The Role of Infrastructure in Building and Sustaining Peace. 31 The recommended MCA criteria and their respective weights (in percentage) are economic (35 percent), social (25 percent), and climate vulnerability (40 percent). Page 8 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) noted above, this component will also continue to support women’s employment in road construction and maintenance through a certified training program in partnership with a local technical and vocational education and training institution. This will be coupled with direct support to economically empower women-led associations 32 and cooperatives33 to address the specific challenges women face (as identified in paragraph 10). This initiative will provide: (i) technical assistance and capacity building for women-led associations and cooperatives, such as training and support for registry, expansion, formalization, access to markets, packaging, etc.; (ii) small grants to women-led associations and cooperatives to boost earnings and/or income-generating activities; and (iii) equipment provisions such as agricultural processing equipment (in-kind grants) and construction of dry and cold storage facilities and multifunctional platforms for women. Capacity building and technical assistance will be provided through a service provider procured via the PCU. Women-led associations that wish to request grants and/or equipment will be supported in developing well-constructed business plans that will be validated by the PCU, the General Directorate for the Promotion of Women and Protection of Children (GDPWC) in the Ministry for the Advancement of Women and Child Protection, and the National Unit for Promotion of Women (Observatoire National de la Promotion de la Femme). Following this process, the PCU will also be responsible for providing these grants (cash and in kind) according to these business plans. The end goal is to accompany For Official Use Only these women-led associations over time towards conversion into registered small enterprises. Monitoring of this initiative will be based on a project-financed impact evaluation. 32. Maximizing Finance for Development (MFD): The AF is aligned with the World Bank MFD approach and Subcomponent 2.2 has been verified as MFD-e. Activities under this subcomponent will provide support (technical assistance and small grants, both cash and in kind) to women-led associations and cooperatives, as noted in the component description. The technical assistance provided will incorporate measures to ensure both financial continuity and environmental sustainability, including establishment of revolving funds such that these associations and cooperatives are able to continue supporting their members beyond the life of the project, ensure access to finance for these beneficiaries, and reduce long-term public dependency. 33. Component 3: Project management and implementation support (Original project—US$10 million equivalent; AF allocation—US$4 million equivalent). This component under the parent project finances overall project management and coordination of activities, and activities designed to prevent and mitigate sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA), sexual harassment (SH), and violence against children linked to project civil works, as well as assessment and management of human security risks (including human trafficking). The proposed AF does not make any changes to this component. 34. Component 4: Contingent emergency response component (US$0 million equivalent). The AF maintains the contingent emergency response component (CERC) under the parent project with no changes. This component allows for reallocation of project funds to support emergency response and reconstruction. D. Results Framework 35. The results framework has been adjusted to account for the changes to the PDO and project activities and to incorporate updated World Bank Group (WBG) corporate commitments, including climate considerations. Annex 4 provides a summary of these changes. The updated theory of change is provided in Annex 8. E. Implementation Arrangements 36. The Ministry of Transport and Equipment will continue to act as the implementing agency, led by the PCU. There 32 These women-led associations will be open to integrating members from existing/informal cooperatives in (but not limited to) the artisanal, textile, and meat/diary industries. 33 These women-led associations and cooperatives to be supported by the project range in size upward from a minimum of about 25 members. Page 9 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) are no changes to the implementation arrangements under the proposed AF for project activities. Technical assistance and capacity-building activities financed under Subcomponent 2.2 to support women-led associations will be procured via a service provider under the supervision of the GDPCW (as described in paragraph 31). In close collaboration with the GDPCW, the PCU will provide grants in cash and in kind (as equipment procured according to the approved business plans) as described in paragraph 31 and detailed in the Project Implementation Manual. Further detail on the implementation arrangements for Subcomponent 2.2 is described in Annex 5. F. Citizen Engagement 37. The project will continue relying on the robust citizen engagement approach established under the parent project. The Stakeholder Engagement Plan set out the strategies for consultation with relevant stakeholders—including interested counterparts, parties, NGOs, project-affected persons, and vulnerable and marginalized groups such as women and youth—and disclosure of key project information to the public. Local communities have been engaged in order to ascertain public concerns to ensure inclusive design that will enhance access and safety along the road. The For Official Use Only Stakeholder Engagement Plan includes a project-specific GRM that outlines opportunities and avenues by which project stakeholders can provide feedback and seek redress on project-related grievances and complaints. Other feedback will also be collected from the Niger civil society organization platform, with which regular dialogues will be organized. The project plans to conduct satisfaction surveys to track satisfaction with community-level infrastructure investments financed under the project. The results of the surveys will inform project implementation. The results framework includes two related beneficiary feedback indicators34 and these will be monitored during implementation. III. KEY RISKS 38. The overall risk rating is Substantial, largely due to the following: (a) substantial risk due to limited institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability; (b) substantial fiduciary risk; (c) high environmental and social risk, including high security risk in the project area; and (d) substantial stakeholder-related risk due to the need for coordination across multiple stakeholders. 39. Political and governance risks: Substantial. In July 2023, an unconstitutional change in government occurred in Niger, leading to economic sanctions, border closures, and disruption in external financing for more than six months. While financing from most development banks has resumed, most development activities financed by European Union partners have not. Further political instability could affect implementation of the project, including this AF, especially as it pertains to accessing equipment from abroad and the security situation along the Zinder–Agadez corridor. However, development of this corridor targets fundamental transport needs for the local population, thereby enabling a people-centric approach that is likely to remain a consistent priority regardless of the government regime. The original ENNCP was developed under the previous regime, but development of the Zinder–Agadez corridor remains a priority under the current government. Additionally, this AF has been prepared in close collaboration with a wide group of stakeholders, including civil society and the private sector, to ensure that this support addresses a wide range of needs. AF activities will also continue to support technical assistance, civil society, and private sector engagement and communications. 40. Macroeconomic risk: Substantial. GDP growth is expected to average 7.3 percent over 2025-2026, driven by scaled up oil production and exports, and improvements in agricultural output due to an expansion in irrigated land.35 This 34 Indicator 1 (PDO): Share of beneficiaries reporting satisfaction with project activities (percentage). Indicator 2 (intermediate): Complaints addressed within the stipulated GRM time frame (percentage). 35 This assumes the security situation doesn’t deteriorate further. Page 10 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) growth is expected to contribute to reductions in the extreme poverty rate to 42.5 percent by 2026 despite higher inflation in 2025–2026. However, given that domestic financing is expected to remain costly, the fiscal deficit is expected to narrow, with public debt declining to 50.6 percent by 2027. In addition, this outlook remains subject to significant downside risks, including a deterioration of the security situation, commodity price volatility, and climatic shocks, all of which could impact the construction sector, and, as a result, project implementation. The ECOWAS withdrawal36 could also lead to larger disruptions in the free movement of goods, services, capital, and labor, which could impact project works and have spillover effects onto trade in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) zone (including OPRC prices). 41. Technical design of project and institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability risks: Substantial. The OPRC approach has been used in response to the growing maintenance backlog and as an alternative to ensure the sustainability of the major corridor, especially given the limited funding for road asset management in Niger. Additionally, this approach has also helped manage the ongoing environmental challenges for the Zinder–Agadez road corridor, including flooding, sand and dust storms, and dune migration. However, the use of this approach is impacted by For Official Use Only institutional capacity challenges. These institutional challenges hinder the Government of Niger’s ability to manage these complex OPRC contracts, thereby creating substantial financial and operational risks. To mitigate these risks, the OPRC contracts under the AF will be extended for two years for the section from Zinder to Tiguidit. This longer OPRC lifespan helps expose any design failures prior to closure of the contract. The AF design also incorporates continuous training and capacity reinforcement in the supervision of the OPRC. With regard to the Tiguidit–Agadez rehabilitation, design and build contracting will be used to ensure robust and cost-effective technical design and a fast procurement and implementation process. While the use of design and build contracting for the Tiguidit–Agadez segment may pose a risk to sustainability, this will be mitigated by extensive support to ensure that appropriate environmental standards are incorporated in the design, alongside procurement of high-quality materials and civil works. Additionally, the road asset management institutions for the country will be supported under the Southern Niger Connectivity and Integration Project (P179770)37 to enable better long-term maintenance planning and financing. 42. Environmental and social risks: The AF, like the parent project, will be implemented in accordance with the Environmental and Social Framework (ESF) and is rated High for social risks and Substantial for environmental risks. ▪ Environmental risks are substantial. The key project environmental risks are associated with civil works activities. The project will be using high-intensity labor and mechanized methods, and these working conditions entail labor risks. These include risks related to road safety and occupational health and safety. Additionally, environmental risks include pollution, mainly due to the disposal and management of construction and hazardous waste; nuisances related to air and noise emissions; flooding and water scarcity; land disturbance; water pollution from hydrocarbon spills; and biodiversity management. These risks will be mitigated through the contractor Environmental and Social Management Plan and the Traffic Management Plan. ▪ Social risks are high. Key social risks are related to the following: (i) high SEA/SH risks in specific project areas as well as project activities, including a risk of sexually transmitted diseases; (ii) social exclusion of marginalized and vulnerable people 38 with regard to labor and/or income opportunities of the project (such as jobs created, women’s empowerment activities, and compensation); (iii) child labor risks; (iv) the security of project workers and some stakeholders given the increased presence of non-State armed groups in the northern region (Agadez); (v) minor or moderate labor influx; and (vi) limited familiarity with the overall ESF by the contractor and subcontractors. 36 Communiqué issued on January 29, 2025, effective date of the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. 37 Planned for World Bank Board approval this fiscal year. 38 Including persons with disabilities, girls, women, and minorities. Page 11 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) ▪ Overall, environmental and social risks will be mitigated by drawing up a robust action plan similar to the ongoing parent project and ensuring the continuity of adequate implementation support arrangements . For instance, the AF will continue: (i) benefiting from strong stakeholder engagement, namely National Environmental Assessment Office (Bureau National des Evaluations Environnementales, BNEE), the National Labor Inspection entity, and the GDPWC; and (ii) building on the functioning GRM for project-affected persons, workers, and other stakeholders. In addition, the project will continue strengthening the borrower’s low capacity to manage project-related environmental and social risks and impacts in a manner consistent with ESS. Finally, the project will continue to promote equitable access to all project benefits, as such mitigating the risk of excluding vulnerable groups (youth, women, persons with disabilities, etc.). 43. Other risks—Security: Substantial. Persistent insecurity could deter human resources from the implementation and monitoring of project activities. The corridor between Zinder and Agadez is not considered a high-risk area in terms of insecurity related to armed groups and violent extremism (unlike areas near Lake Chad and near the border with Mali). The current project includes security provisions to monitor and address these risks, such as a Security Management Plan For Official Use Only to proactively assess, monitor, and adapt to the security situation; these have been updated as part of the AF. The AF will continue already existing project provisions to engage closely with local communities, facilitate access to grievance redress systems, and promote citizen engagement. The original project design also includes capacity building for the PCU to monitor these risks and raise awareness via citizen engagement activities under Component 3. V. APPRAISAL SUMMARY A. Technical and Economic and Financial Analysis Economic Analysis 44. The economic analysis conducted focuses on the key activities of Component 1, which involves the road rehabilitation of the Tiguidit–Agadez road (62 km), and Component 2, which covers the construction and rehabilitation of 200 km of rural roads. This cost-benefit analysis is based on enhanced connectivity, which is closely linked to the ability of citizens to travel efficiently and affordably. The Highway Development and Management Tool (HDM-4) and the Roads Economic Decision Model (RED) were employed for analysis of the Tiguidit–Agadez road rehabilitation and rural road construction and rehabilitation works, respectively. The economic analysis also considers road safety–related costs, identified using the Road Safety Screening and Appraisal Tool, as well as the costs associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (both with and without the project). The cost-benefit analysis for the rural roads also incorporates the benefits of improved ride quality and increased speeds on the previously unsealed roads following the project. 45. The overall economic results for both project components—rehabilitation of the Tiguidit–Agadez road and rural road construction and rehabilitation activities—yield an Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) of 10.6 percent and a Net Present Value (NPV) of US$19.6 million. If construction costs were 20 percent higher and project benefits were 20 percent lower, the EIRR decreases to 7.0 percent. Despite this decline, the EIRR remains above the 6 percent discount rate (see Annex 7). GHG Emissions Assessment 46. The GHG accounting analysis estimates total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions over the 20-year evaluation period at 247,487 tons in the without-project scenario and 289,388 tons in the with-project scenario, resulting in a net increase of 41,901 tons of CO2 emissions, or 2,095 tons per year, with the project. This increase in emissions is primarily attributed to the higher travel speeds enabled by improved road conditions. The shadow price of carbon was calculated and incorporated into the project's cost-benefit analysis. Page 12 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) Paris Alignment 47. The proposed additional finance is aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement on both adaptation and mitigation. The following paragraphs summarize the Paris Alignment assessment, describing adaptation and mitigation risks and providing examples of project interventions to reduce these risks. Annex 6 provides details on additional mitigation and adaptation risk reduction measures. 48. Consistency with national climate strategies: The project is consistent with Niger’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC)39 and National Adaptation Plan (NAP).40 The country’s NDC and NAP highlight the importance of enhancing the resilience of infrastructure, including roads, and features to access water resources. Accordingly, the project aims to enhance the climate resilience of the transport sector by rehabilitating and upgrading a strategic corridor and feeder road systems to meet climate resilience standards.41, 42 To date, the country does not have a long-term low GHG emissions strategy (LT-LEDS).43 49. Assessment and reduction of mitigation risks to a low level: The activities financed by the AF are universally aligned For Official Use Only or present low risk to the country’s transition to low-carbon development pathways. The project activities include the following: (1) rehabilitation and upgrading of 62 km connecting Agadez to Tiguidit and 200 km of rural access roads in Northeastern Niger, without capacity expansion for private motor vehicles and without risk of contributing to deforestation; (2) provision of socioeconomic infrastructure to enable basic services and economic opportunities for women—this includes the construction of dry and cold storage facilities, the creation of multifunctional platforms for women, and the provision of agricultural processing equipment—with the facilities being energy-efficient, fully electrified, and solar powered to the extent possible; and (3) installation of weighing stations and toll booths, which will contribute to motorization management and generate funds for road maintenance. The socioeconomic infrastructure, agricultural processing equipment, weighing stations, and toll booths will be fully electrified with solar power and thus assessed as presenting low mitigation risk. The project finances a CERC, and the task team will ensure that all eligible activities included in the CERC Manual and CERC annex of the Project Implementation Manual are Paris Aligned. The project is therefore assessed as aligned with the Paris Agreement from a mitigation perspective. 50. Assessment and reduction of adaptation risks to an acceptable level: The main climate and disaster risks likely to affect the project investments are extreme heat, dune migration, dust and sandstorms, and floods. The additional finance design includes measures to reduce the risks of these climate hazards threatening project outcomes. The road rehabilitation and upgrading integrates climate risk and resilience considerations in the design and construction specifications. For example, this includes the use of appropriate climate-informed road design standards and construction materials that strengthen pavement to make it resilient to extreme heat conditions and floods, and the use of nature- based solutions such as the planting of native vegetation for dune fixation and soil stabilization. The additional finance 39 Republique du Niger. 2021. Niger’s Nationally Determined Contributions (French). https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022- 06/CDN_Niger_R%C3%A9vis%C3%A9e_2021.pdf. 40 Republique du Niger. 2022. Niger’s National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (French). https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Plan- National-d%27Adaptation_Niger_Version-Finale.pdf. 41 Climate-resilient standards are informed by current and projected climate conditions and address climate change impacts related to extreme heat, sandstorms, changing rainfall patterns, droughts, and floods. The climate-resilient standards encompass adjustments in infrastructure design and construction materials to enhance climate resilience and include the deployment of targeted protection measures to reduce exposure to natural hazards. 42 The NDC also mentions the importance of improving the energy efficiency of the transport sector through more efficient gasoline and diesel vehicles and restrictions on imported vehicles. While the scope of the project is not addressing these emission mitigation actions, the project is consistent with the mitigation objectives of the NDC. 43 Long Term Strategies Portal shows strategies for other countries, but not Niger. Source: United Nations Climate Change. N.d. Long Term Strategies Portal. The Paris Agreement. https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/long-term-strategies. Page 13 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) also integrates climate risk considerations in the definition of road and drainage maintenance protocols. The project’s climate resilience and adaptation design considerations limit the exposure of the project to climate risks to an acceptable level of residual risk. The project is therefore assessed to be aligned with the Paris Agreement from an adaptation perspective. B. Fiduciary 51. FM arrangements: Project FM performance has been Satisfactory during the project implementation. The FM arrangements covering budgeting, accounting, internal control, funds flow, financial reporting, and auditing adhere to the standards required by the World Bank. Overall FM risk has been assessed as Substantial due to the security situation in key places where the project is being implemented, which at times has impacted the timeliness of project reporting. The inability to maintain a proper bid register, as reported in the last project audit, is being addressed through the establishment of a register where all bidders of each procurement process are being recorded. The FM system has operated well and for the most part has been used to produce timely annual project financial statements for annual audit For Official Use Only and quarterly project interim unaudited financial reports. The capacity of the FM team in the PCU is still weak. The FM staff have provided enhanced support to the PCU FM team, which will also benefit from client connection and FM training in February 2025. The project disbursement rate is only 24 percent, despite being implemented for three years. Despite low disbursement rates, the World Bank FM team is working with the procurement team to assist in improving the overall project disbursement rate by guiding the PCU fiduciary team on better contract management and follow-up on items not implemented, as reflected in the project STEP procurement system. The AF FM system has been assessed as adequate to produce overall timely FM reports for monitoring project financial performance; it meets the World Bank’s minimum requirements. Procurement 52. The procurement risk for this project is Substantial. The country faces a number of capacity constraints, although the project will continue to provide technical and fiduciary support to address these risks. For example, in Niger the Dispute Resolution Committee is not operational to handle procurement complaints, which can hinder process integrity in procurement. The closure of borders also complicates the supply chain for Niger. Additionally, implementation of OPRC contracts is complex, with challenges observed by both the borrower and its contractors (OPRC contractor and Mission of Supervision and Verification - Mission de Suivi Verification, MSV). These challenges include limited regular reporting on formal inspections and delays in the Road Safety Audit and Traffic Management Plan, required by OPRC contracts. However, the project will continue to work to support critical mitigation measures, such as the establishment of HEIS and institutional and technical support, along with measures to address cost overruns and extend the OPRC contracts. The Project Procurement Strategy for Development and Procurement Plan for activities under this AF have been finalized as part of preparation. 53. The AF will also incorporate measures to preemptively address integrity risks identified in other projects, such as market malpractices involving misrepresentation of prior experience and acceptance of unreliable works. To address procurement malpractices in the sector, it is essential to verify certificates and representations with former employers and issuers. In addition, supervision of works contracts under the AF shall include strong technical provisions and Key Performance Indictors (KPI) to ensure infrastructure quality and budget efficiency in project implemented activities. 54. However, contracted firms under the parent project may be considered for works and MSV, providing costs are reasonable and the contractor/MSV weaknesses are addressed for the expected quality and time compliance. The AF will allocate resources to reinforce this. The AF provides additional resources to ensure the viability of the OPRC approach, although the use of this type of contract may be reconsidered for future projects, given its complexity and country and capacity challenges. Page 14 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) C. Environmental, Social, and Legal Operational Policies Triggered? Projects on International Waterways Operational Policy 7.50 No Projects in Disputed Areas Operational Policy 7.60 No D. Environmental and Social 55. All environmental and social institutional arrangements under the parent project will be maintained. ]AF activities (especially rehabilitation works added in the Tiguidit–Agadez section) are a continuation of parent project activities. While the project’s environmental and social outcomes are expected to be positive, negative impacts may arise from AF For Official Use Only technical design and/or during parent project and AF implementation. 56. Good progress was noted in the implementation of social and environmental safeguard measures under the parent project. Environmental and social performance of the parent project is satisfactory, as confirmed by the latest implementation support missions in September 2024 and January 2025. During these missions, the World Bank noted progress made thanks to the complete PCU Environmental and Social Team, the Supervising Engineer, and the works company, all of which are in place and operational. Operational health and safety, as well as contractual conditions for the company’s workers, have improved considerably, thereby decreasing child labor risk. Furthermore, site facilities in Tanout and Takoukou are well managed in terms of waste management, worker safety, and personal protective equipment usage. Project works also include improvement measures to maximize use of the rare rainwater that runs off during the rainy season for pastoral/agricultural land; this water would otherwise damage the road itself. Project activities (including the current AF) will not trigger Operational Policy 7.50. Regarding biodiversity conservation, there are no specific species of fauna threatened; however, some rare species of reptiles, avian fauna, and vegetation within Zinder and Agadez Regions could be affected by site-clearing activities. 57. Risk management for the parent project has notably improved through the active involvement of the ministries and their corresponding regional services in Zinder and Agadez, along with hands-on support from the World Bank. All these factors have contributed to ensuring compliance and close follow-up of project-related risk management. The same dynamic shall continue for the activities planned under the AF. 58. The parent project has invested capacity and resources for the management of SEA/SH risks and has implemented robust mitigation measures from the start. However, the project urgently needs to recruit a new GBV NGO to fill the void left by the contracted GBV NGO, which had its operating license revoked by the government in January 2025. Pending recruitment of this NGO, the parent project is currently relying on the GDPWC to ensure continuity of activities as an interim plan. The AF will ensure the continued involvement of the GDPWC, which will strengthen the overall project Accountability and Response Framework. 59. As mentioned above, to mitigate GBV risks the parent project has invested capacity and resources in the management of SEA/SH risks and has implemented robust mitigation measures. These include the following: training GVB focal points; setting up GRM committees within the work company and communities; training on codes of conduct and having stakeholders involved in project activities sign these; and organization of GBV awareness-raising sessions. Some project activities will continue to be implemented in remote areas, while relying on the new NGO (to be hired) and GDPWC so as to avoid supervision issues that could result in a higher risk of potential abuse and underreporting of problems. 60. Status of ESF instruments: As required, all the relevant ESF documents—Stakeholder Engagement Plan, Environment Page 15 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) and Social Commitment Plan, SEA/SH Risk Assessment and Action Plan, Security Risk Assessment and Security Management Plan, Environmental and Social Management Framework, Resettlement Policy Framework, and Labor Management Procedures—were updated and disclosed in the country44 and on the World Bank external website on February 18, 202545. Specific studies, such as Environmental and Social Impact Assessments, Environmental and Social Management Plans, and Resettlement Action Plans (RAPs), 46 will be prepared and submitted by the Project Implementation Unit once the design of additional project activities is completed. VI. WORLD BANK GRIEVANCE REDRESS 61. Grievance Redress: Communities and individuals who believe that they are adversely affected by a project supported by the World Bank may submit complaints to existing project-level grievance mechanisms or the Bank’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS). The GRS ensures that complaints received are promptly reviewed in order to address project- related concerns. Project-affected communities and individuals may submit their complaint to the Bank’s independent Accountability Mechanism (AM). The AM houses the Inspection Panel, which determines whether harm occurred, or For Official Use Only could occur, as a result of Bank non-compliance with its policies and procedures, and the Dispute Resolution Service, which provides communities and borrowers with the opportunity to address complaints through dispute resolution. Complaints may be submitted to the AM at any time after concerns have been brought directly to the attention of Bank management and after management has been given an opportunity to respond. For information on how to submit complaints to the Bank’s Grievance Redress Service, visit http://www.worldbank.org/GRS. For information on how to submit complaints to the Bank’s Accountability Mechanism, visit https://accountability.worldbank.org. 44 Disclosed at : i) National Environmental Assessment Office (Bureau National des Evaluations Environnementales, BNEE). N.d. Strategic Environmental Evaluation Reports. https://www.bnee.ne/category/ressources/centreaccesinfo/rapports_provisoires/rapports-devaluation- environnementale-strategique/; and ii) www.cnut.ne. 45 Disclosed at: https://spfilesapi.worldbank.org/services?I4_SERVICE=VC&I4_KEY=P171793&I4_DOCID=736f0263-0718-4eef-9ca7-f7bcb1aa91e0. 46 Civil works might entail moderate-scale involuntary resettlement, particularly for the planned secondary agricultural feeder roads (not yet definitively identified). Page 16 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@afaprproposedchanges#doctemplate Summary changes VI. PROPOSED CHANGES Operation Information Proposed Changes Operation Information Proposed Changes Development Objective Yes Loan Closing Date Extension Yes Summary Description Yes Implementation Schedule Yes (Operation Abstract) MFD/PCE Yes Loan Cancellations No Results Yes Reallocations No For Official Use Only Disbursements Estimates Yes Financial Management No Components Yes Procurement No Legal Operational Policies No Institutional Arrangement No Legal Covenants No Implementation Modalities No Conditions No Implementation Modalities No Disbursements Arrangements No Additional Regional No Institutions Clients No Beneficiary Countries No @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@afaprdetailedchanges#doctemplate VII. DETAILED CHANGE(S) DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE (DO) Development Objective Development Objective (Approved as part of Approval Package on 02-Mar-2021) The proposed Project Development Objective (PDO) is (i) to enhance connectivity and road safety along the Zinder - Agadez road section in Northeastern Niger through the rehabilitation of the Tanout – Tiguidit road segment and maintenance of the full Zinder - Agadez section, and (ii) to improve access to basic socio-economic infrastructure for selected communities, along the Zinder - Agadez road section. Proposed New Development Objective Page 17 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) To enhance climate resilient connectivity and road safety and to improve climate resilient access to basic socio-economic infrastructure for selected communities in Northeastern Niger. Operation Abstract: Summary Description of Proposed Operation Operation Abstract (Approved as part of Approval Package on 02-Mar-2021) The project is a transport operation which will finance the rehabilitation and upgrading of the 226 km road segment from Tanout to Tiguidit, and the long-term maintenance of the entire road between Zinder and Agadez (425 km). It will also finance a road safety program on the Zinder - Agadez road section, and will be implementing complementary activities along the same section aimed at enhancing the impact of the project (and enhancing climate resiliency) by contributing to the enabling environment for income-generating activities and economic diversification for the rural For Official Use Only population living along the road, especially women’s groups and other vulnerable groups. The project supports the CPF’s objective to “Improve availability of productive infrastructure for trade in rural areas”. The main project components are the following (i) Road reconstruction and safety improvements along the targeted road sections; (ii) Support socio-economic activities along the Tanout – Tiguidit road section; (iii) Operational Support. Proposed Operation Abstract The Enhancing Niger Northeast Connectivity Project (ENNCP) was approved and declared effective in 2021 with a total financing of US$ 175 million. The proposed Additional Financing (AF) of US$90 million will continue to support the Government of Niger’s (GoN) strategy to improve connectivity within Niger by facilitating the safe movement of people and goods on key lifeline road corridors. This includes rehabilitation and maintenance works along the national road 11 (RN No11), commonly known as the Trans-Saharan corridor, connecting the southern part of the country with the northern regions, as initially planned under the parent project. Specific activities supported under the AF include: i) Climate-informed rehabilitation of the 62 km Tiguidit-Agadez RN No11 road section, identified as highly vulnerable to climate change related hazards, thereby improving access to the full RN 11 corridor; ii) critical measures to improve and extend maintenance works and associated supervision for the full Zinder-Agadez corridor of the RN No11; iii) installation of weighing stations and toll booths along the RN No11 corridor to improve financial and environmental sustainability; iv) rehabilitation to climate resilient standards of an additional 200 km of rural feeder roads to access the RN 11 corridor and provide for access of local communities to basic social and economic services; and v) restructuring of activities to support female empowerment planned under the original project. COMPONENTS Last Approved Proposed Page 18 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) Component Name Cost (USD) Action Component Name Cost (USD) Component 1: Road Component 1: Road reconstruction, reconstruction, maintenance maintenance and safety 133,200,000.00 Revised and safety improvements 191,000,000.00 improvements along the along the Zinder – Agadez Zinder – Agadez Road Road Section Section Component 2: Improved Component 2: Improved accessibility and community accessibility and community infrastructure along the 32,000,000.00 Revised 60,000,000.00 infrastructure along the Zinder – Agadez Road Zinder – Agadez Road Section Section For Official Use Only Component 3: Project Component 3: Project management and 10,000,000.00 Revised management and 14,650,000.00 implementation support implementation support Component 4: Contingent Component 4: Contingent emergency response 0.00 No Change emergency response 0.00 component component TOTAL 175,200,000.00 265,650,000.00 COSTS & FINANCING Private Capital Facilitation Is this an MFD-Enabling Project (MFD-EP)? YesUnder revision Is this project Private Capital Enabling (PCE)? NoUnder revision LOANS Loan Closing Original Revised Proposed Proposed Deadline Loan/Credit/Trust Status Closing Closing(s) Closing for Withdrawal Fund Applications IDA-68390-001 Effective 28-Sep-2029 28-Sep-2029 26-Sep-2031 26-Jan-2032 IDA-68400-001 Effective 28-Sep-2029 28-Sep-2029 26-Sep-2031 26-Jan-2032 IDA-D7800-001 Effective 28-Sep-2029 28-Sep-2029 26-Sep-2031 26-Jan-2032 Page 19 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) DISBURSEMENTS Operation Dates & Projection Details Reasons to change the full Disbursement date and/or the projection Additional Financing Implementation Start Date Operation Closing Date 02-Mar-2021 28-Sep-2029 Projected Date for Full Disbursement 26-Sep-2031 Expected Disbursements (in US $) (Absolute) For Official Use Only Original Estimation at Preparation Actual Year Revised Estimation (Approval Package – 02 Mar 2021) FY2021 571,428.58 0.00 0.00 FY2022 33,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,264,053.83 FY2023 38,000,000.00 30,000,000.00 11,922,163.57 FY2024 36,000,000.00 30,000,000.00 9,776,190.79 FY2025 21,000,000.00 33,000,000.00 2,910,613.15 FY2026 15,000,000.00 41,000,000.00 0.00 FY2027 15,000,000.00 41,000,000.00 0.00 FY2028 15,000,000.00 38,000,000.00 0.00 FY2029 800,000.00 38,000,000.00 0.00 FY2030 200,000.00 1,130,000.00 0.00 FY2031 0.00 870,000.00 0.00 FY2032 0.00 0.00 0.00 ENVIRONMENTAL & SOCIAL Overview Operation Location Operation location and salient physical characteristics relevant to the ESS Assessment (geographic, environmental, social) (if known) The Trans-Saharan Corridor is a historic trade route that connects Algeria, Niger, and Nigeria through the Sahara Desert, Sahel-Saharan regions, and the Sudanian zone from north to south, from Algiers in Algeria to Lagos in Nigeria via Agadez and Zinder in Niger. The corridor plays a key role in regional integration, facilitating trade, and socio- Page 20 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) economic, cultural, and political exchanges between the surplus agricultural regions of southern Niger and the deficit regions of northern Agadez and Zinder in Niger, as well as with Algeria and Nigeria. From a security perspective, this road, which provides connectivity between Nigeria and northern Niger, is located in a hard-to-reach area of the country and is also used for drug and arms trafficking. The Tiguidit-Agadez section that will be rehabilitated through the Additional Funding is located in the Sahel-Saharan zone and crosses pastoral areas where vulnerable pastoralists/nomads (children, women, and girls) are constantly on the move, exposed to various risks of GBV. The climate of the area is semi-arid, hot, and dry with a relief dominated by geomorphological formations cut by small valleys of medium altitude. The surface water is made up of a few semi-permanent ponds scattered over the territory of the two departments (Tanout and Aderbissinat). Several koris that flow in the rainy season cross the road in places, indicating that many structures need to be built and/or rehabilitated as part of the work. Mobilizing this water through small upstream reservoirs (spillways, weirs, etc.) in a semi-arid and pastoral area can help build community resilience to the effects of climate change. It will also maximize the protection and durability of the road. The soils are mainly sandy- silty in the dune areas, on the plateaus and plains, clayey-silty to clayey in the low-lying areas, and hydromorphic in the temporary and semi-permanent pools and koris. The vegetation, composed of woody and herbaceous species, is very For Official Use Only degraded along the road between Tiguidit and Agadez but remains relatively abundant in the lowlands. Wildlife is almost absent along the road. Detailed operation location(s) and salient physical characteristics relevant to the ESS Assessment (geographic, environmental, social) The Trans Sahara Corridor is an historic 4600 kilometer trade route that runs north-south across the Sahara Desert from Algiers in Algeria to Lagos in Nigeria. It passes through Tamanrasset In Algeria, Agadez and Zinder in Niger and Kano in Nigeria. The corridor plays a critical role in the trade between Nigeria, Niger’s agricultural surplus regions of the South and the deficit regions of the North. The corridor also supports the lucrative uranium and coal mining industry that is centered on Arlit in the North and is an historic smuggling route; Agadez, in particular, is a major hub for illegal migration, arms and human trafficking. In addition, from a security point of view, this road, which provides connectivity between Nigeria and northern Niger, is located in a difficult-to-access area of the country and is also used for drugs and arms. The section of the AF road crosses pastoral areas where vulnerable pastoralists/nomads (children, women and girls) are constantly on the move, with exposure on various risks of GBV. On Environement side, the AF area, in particular the section of the Tiguidit-Agadez road, is located in the Sahelo-Saharan zone. The climate is semi-arid, hot and dry. The relief of the project area is dominated by geomorphological formations cut by small, medium-altitude valleys. Surface waters consist of a few semi-permanent pools scattered across the territory of the two departments (Tanout and Aderbissinat). Several koris that flow in the rainy season cross the road in places, indicating that numerous structures need to be built and/or rehabilitated as part of the works. The mobilization of these waters by means of small upstream reservoirs (spillway, weir, etc.) in a semi-arid and pastoral area can help strengthen the communities resilience to the climate change effects. It will also maximize road protection and durability. Soils are predominantly sandy-loam in dune areas, on plateaus and plains, clay-loam to clay in low-lying areas and hydromorphic in temporary and semi-permanent pools and koris. The vegetation, consisting of woody and herbaceous species, is very degraded along the road between Tiguidit and Agadez, but remains relatively abundant in the lowlands. Fauna remains virtually absent along the road... The road section to be rehabilitated was constructed in 1987 and is currently 2 lanes, 6 meters wide with a 1 meter usable shoulder. Due to political instability in the 1990s and a persistent lack of maintenance, the road section is in a very deteriorated condition. The pavement has failed structurally and traffic is regularly interrupted and delayed and travel times are significant. Borrower’s Institutional Capacity The Ministry of Equipment and Transport (MET) is the implementing agency for this project as well as for the Niger Rural Mobility and Connectivity Project (P164498) currently under implementation with MS E&S performance. The existing Project Coordination Unit (PCU) established for the latter AF PACNEN project will also be responsible for monitoring compliance with the project's environmental and social safeguards and M&E oversight. The PCU has a Page 21 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) complete social and environmental safeguard team, including (1 environmental specialist, 1 social development specialist, 1 SEA/SH specialist, and 1 security specialist). However, while the existing staff are familiar with WB operational policies and requirements, their experience with the ESF needs to be improved. Many capacity-building sessions on the ESF-specific items have already been provided since the implementation started and need to be continued. Given the nature of the project activities including the AF phase, it is also important to highlight the role of the Bureau National des Evaluations Environnementales (BNEE) that is under the Ministry of the Environment has established a close collaboration with the MTE. The BNEE is responsible for approving environmental and social studies and ensuring compliance with the administrative procedure for environmental and social assessments as well as t monitoring and controlling the implementation of environmental and social measures at the national level. The national legislative framework includes a decree on Environmental Assessments that requires the integration of environmental considerations into any development project activities, especially those related to the transport sector. Based on prior experience with previous transport projects in the country, the BNEE’s capacity to adequately supervise the implementation of safeguards measures has been a challenge. Through the AF, the environmental and social management system and procedures within the Ministry of Environment (including BNEE) will need to be enhanced to For Official Use Only fully comply with the new ESF requirements; and BNEE staff will need training to strengthen or refresh their overall capacity. In addition, the project is being implemented in a remote region and supervision has been provided by BNEE's national office in Niamey, more than 1,000 km away. As part of the AF, the BNEE regional departments of Zinder and Agadez, which are in the implementation zones, will be heavily involved in supervising the project's activities. During the AF phase, Component 3 (Operational Support) will continue to support project management. It will also support capacity-building activities and training. These commitments are reflected in the Environmental and Social Commitment Plan (ESCP). Assessment Environmental & Social Risk Classification Environmental Risk Rating Social Risk Rating Substantial High Original Environmental and Social Risk Rating (ESRC) Revised Environmental and Social Risk Rating (ESRC) High High Environmental & Social Standards E & S Standards Relevance ESS 1: Assessment and Management of Environmental and Social Risks and Relevant Impacts ESS 10: Stakeholder Engagement and Information Disclosure Relevant ESS 2: Labor and Working Conditions Relevant ESS 3: Resource Efficiency and Pollution Prevention and Management Relevant ESS 4: Community Health and Safety Relevant ESS 5: Land Acquisition, Restrictions on Land Use and Involuntary Resettlement Relevant ESS 6: Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Management of Living Natural Relevant Resources Page 22 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) ESS 7: Indigenous Peoples/Sub-Saharan African Historically Underserved Not Currently Relevant Traditional Local Communities ESS 8: Cultural Heritage Relevant ESS 9: Financial Intermediaries Not Currently Relevant Summary of Assessment of Environmental and Social Risks and Impacts The environmental risk remains substantial: The planned civil works entail risks and negative environmental impacts that will need to be managed in order to comply with the requirements of the World Bank's environmental and social standards. These potential negative risks and impacts are related to: (i) resource use and pollution management (procurement of raw materials for civil works, water and energy use, GHG emissions , dust, noise, potential contamination of water sources due to spills and runoff of petroleum products, seepage into storage areas and improper disposal of fuels, solid and liquid waste management mainly due to management and disposal construction For Official Use Only waste and hazards; (ii) Occupational and community health and safety; (iii) Potential loss of vegetation and biodiversity during civil works and site preparation, quarry areas for materials; and (iv) the potential impact of civil works and excavations on cultural heritage. The social risk of the project remains High. The activities of the additional financing project (especially the rehabilitation works added in the Tiguidit-Agadez section) are a continuity of the activities of the parent project. While the overall social benefits are expected to be positive, the anticipated social risks and impacts include: (i) The high SEA/SH risks: The risk rating considers both context and project-specific risks; some contextual risk factors include the high prevalence of GBV , including child marriage and high score of poverty in the proposed areas of project implementation which may exacerbate the risks of transactional sex, the humanitarian situation which increases risks of GBV and the scarcity or lack of GBV service providers, particularly in rural areas. (ii)- Security risks for project workers and beneficiaries given that this section of the road is in a fairly remote and insecure part of the country and is part of a very complicated corridor that both contributes to improving connectivity between Nigeria and northern Niger but is also used for a significant amount of human, drug and arms trafficking. (iii) Land acquisition and involuntary resettlement risks: The civil works will entail large scale involuntary resettlement, particularly for the secondary agricultural feeder roads (not yet definitively identified) that will link up with the main road. Both physical and economic displacement are expected. Last Finalized Date Is a common approach being considered? 10-Feb-2025 No Page 23 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) PROJECT PAPER RESULTS COUNTRY: Niger ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@afaprresultframework#doctemplate Project Development Objective(s) To enhance climate resilient connectivity and road safety and to improve climate resilient access to basic socio-economic infrastructure for selected communities in Northeastern Niger. For Official Use Only PDO Indicators by PDO Outcomes Baseline Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 Period 6 Period 7 Period 8 Completion Period Enhance connectivity along the Zinder - Agadez road segment in Northeastern Niger Revise Travel time for private vehicles between Agadez and Zinder (Hours) Nov/2020 Dec/2021 Dec/2022 Dec/2023 Dec/2024 Dec/2025 Dec/2026 Dec/2027 Dec/2028 Sep/2031 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 Rationale for Change This indicator is revised to reflect two years extension of project closing date. ➢ ReviseTravel time of passenger transport vehicles between Agadez and Zinder (Hours) Nov/2020 Dec/2021 Dec/2022 Dec/2023 Dec/2024 Dec/2025 Dec/2026 Dec/2027 Dec/2028 Sep/2031 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 Rationale for Change This indicator is revised to reflect two years extension of project closing date. ➢ ReviseTravel time of commercial goods vehicles between Agadez and Zinder (Hours) Nov/2020 Dec/2021 Dec/2022 Dec/2023 Dec/2024 Dec/2025 Dec/2026 Dec/2027 Dec/2028 Sep/2031 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 Rationale for Change This indicator is revised to reflect two years extension of project closing date. New Direct users that benefit from improved access to sustainable transport infrastructure and services (Number of people) CRI Jan/2025 Sep/2031 134,436 172,835 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) PROJECT PAPER ➢ NewDirect users that benefit from improved access to sustainable transport infrastructure and services - Female (Number of people) CRI Jan/2025 Sep/2031 67,621 86,936 ➢ NewDirect users that benefit from improved access to sustainable transport infrastructure and services - Youth (Number of people) CRI Jan/2025 Sep/2031 94,105 60,855 Enhance road safety along the Zinder - Agadez road segment in Northeastern Niger Revise Fatalities on the Tanout -Tiguidit section (Number) Nov/2020 Dec/2021 Dec/2022 Dec/2023 Dec/2024 Dec/2025 Dec/2026 Dec/2027 Dec/2028 Sep/2031 5.40 4.30 3.80 3.20 2.00 1.50 1.10 0.94 0.82 0.71 Improve access to basic socio-economic infrastructure for selected local communities along Zn- Ag Revise Share of beneficiaries reporting satisfaction with the selected rural community infrastructure (Percentage) For Official Use Only Nov/2020 Dec/2021 Dec/2022 Dec/2023 Dec/2024 Dec/2025 Dec/2026 Dec/2027 Dec/2028 Sep/2031 0.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Baseline Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 Period 6 Period 7 Period 8 Completion Period Revised Component 1: Road reconstruction, maintenance and safety improvements along the Zinder – Agadez Road Section Revise Length of road receiving rehabilitation which incorporates climate-resilient measures (Kilometers) Oct/2020 Dec/2021 Dec/2022 Dec/2023 Dec/2024 Dec/2025 Dec/2026 Dec/2027 Dec/2028 Sep/2031 0.00 0.00 100.00 172.00 226.00 226.00 226.00 226.00 226.00 288 Revise Length of road receiving periodic climate resilient maintenance (Kilometers) Oct/2020 Dec/2021 Dec/2022 Dec/2023 Dec/2024 Dec/2025 Dec/2026 Dec/2027 Dec/2028 Sep/2031 0.00 199.00 199.00 199.00 199.00 425.00 425.00 425.00 425.00 363 Rationale for Change This indicator is revised to reflect two years extension of project closing date. Revise Number of person-days of employment created (Number) Oct/2020 Dec/2021 Dec/2022 Dec/2023 Dec/2024 Dec/2025 Dec/2026 Dec/2027 Dec/2028 Sep/2031 0.00 28,770.00 97,818.00 166,866.00 207,144.00 207,144.00 207,144.00 207,144.00 207,144.00 207,144.00 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) PROJECT PAPER Rationale for Change This indicator is revised to reflect two years extension of project closing date. New Road safety performance of contractor on the Zinder-Tiguidit Road segment (Percentage) Jan/2025 Sep/2031 10 80 Revised Component 2: Improved accessibility and community infrastructure along the Zinder – Agadez Road Section Revise Rural roads rehabilitated incorporating climate-resilient measures (Kilometers) Jan/2025 Sep/2031 0 300 Revise Increase in average annual revenue of the supported women-led associations (Percentage) For Official Use Only Jan/2025 Sep/2031 0 20 Revise Women beneficiaries using targeted community infrastructure (Number) (Number) Jan/2025 Sep/2031 0 30,000 Share of socio-economic infrastructure built or rehabilitated (Percentage) Oct/2020 Dec/2021 Dec/2022 Dec/2023 Dec/2024 Dec/2025 Dec/2026 Dec/2027 Dec/2028 Sep/2031 0.00 0.00 20.00 50.00 70.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 New Number of women certified in construction and maintenance road works through training provided by the project (Number) Jan/2025 Sep/2031 0 50 Gender Action Plan available (Yes/No) Oct/2020 Dec/2021 Dec/2022 Dec/2023 Dec/2024 Dec/2025 Dec/2026 Dec/2027 Dec/2028 Sep/2031 No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Revised Component 3: Project management and implementation support Complaints addressed within the stipulated GRM timeframe (Percentage) Oct/2020 Dec/2021 Dec/2022 Dec/2023 Dec/2024 Dec/2025 Dec/2026 Dec/2027 Dec/2028 Sep/2031 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Share of GBV complaints treated and referred to service providers (Percentage) Oct/2020 Dec/2021 Dec/2022 Dec/2023 Dec/2024 Dec/2025 Dec/2026 Dec/2027 Dec/2028 Sep/2031 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) PROJECT PAPER Share of construction workers that have signed the code of conduct (Percentage) Oct/2020 Dec/2021 Dec/2022 Dec/2023 Dec/2024 Dec/2025 Dec/2026 Dec/2027 Dec/2028 Sep/2031 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 For Official Use Only The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) PROJECT PAPER Monitoring and Evaluation Plan PDO Indicators by PDO Outcomes PDO Outcome Climate-Resilient Connectivity Indicator Name Direct users from improved access to sustainable transport infrastructure and services (Number of people) CRI Description This indicator assesses the number of people that experience improved access to climate-resilient transport infrastructure and services (the Zinder– Agadez road section and rural access roads). Climate-resilient transport facilities and services are defined as being climate risk informed in their design and operations. Direct users measure the number of people directly benefiting from improved transport services and infrastructure. Frequency Annual Data Source Data input is reported by client. Methodology for Data For the Zinder-Agadez corridor, the methodology includes current and new users of the road section (normal, induced, generated, and diverted traffic) Collection who will benefit from reductions in travel costs and time to travel, and/or improvements in safety, quality, and comfort. This is estimated using annual average daily traffic (AADT) multiplied by an appropriate contextual occupancy factor per vehicle type. AADT refers to the average daily traffic volume at a given location over an entire year. Vehicle class refers to the types of vehicles that are normally counted during a traffic survey, including light, heavy, taxi, and buses. Vehicle occupancy factors, also referred to as average vehicle occupancy, are estimates of the average number of occupants for a single vehicle type or class. Converting AADT to annual data can be done by multiplying by 365 days. In situations where there may be limited transit traffic (e.g., rural access roads), it is appropriate to annualize by considering monthly or daily data as a proxy of annual unique users. For rural road construction and rehabilitation under component 2, the methodology will use population data for residents within a 2km radius of the investments. Responsibility for Data PCU Collection PDO Outcome Enhance connectivity along the Zinder–Agadez road segment in Northeastern Niger Indicator Name Travel time for private vehicles between Agadez and Zinder (Hours) Description Average travel time for private vehicles between Zinder and Agadez. Current travel time is justified by rehabilitation works on some road sections. Frequency Annual Data Source Survey reports Page 28 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) PROJECT PAPER Methodology for Data Annual traffic surveys will be done on the Agadez–Zinder section. Collection Responsibility for Data PCU Collection Indicator Name Travel time of passenger transport vehicles between Agadez and Zinder (Hours) Description Travel time of passenger transport vehicles between Agadez and Zinder Frequency Annual Data Source Survey reports Methodology for Data Annual traffic surveys will be done on the Agadez–Zinder section. Collection Responsibility for Data PCU Collection Indicator Name Travel time of commercial goods vehicles between Agadez and Zinder (Hours) Description Travel time of commercial goods vehicles between Agadez and Zinder Frequency Annual Data Source Survey reports Methodology for Data Annual traffic surveys will be done on the Agadez–Zinder section. Collection Responsibility for Data PCU Collection PDO Outcome Enhance road safety along the Zinder–Agadez road segment in Northeastern Niger Indicator Name Fatalities on the Tanout–Tiguidit section (Number) Number of deaths per year on the Tanout–Tiguidit section. The definition of a death includes a death that occurs up to 30 days after the accident. The Description baseline and the target will be adjusted once the data collection system to be piloted under the project is operational. Frequency Annual Page 29 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) PROJECT PAPER Data Source WHO reports and survey reports (and once operational, the data collection system to be implemented by the project) Methodology for Data Surveys for average annual daily traffic (and once operational, the data collection system to be implemented by the project) Collection Responsibility for Data PCU/ANISER Collection PDO Outcome Improve access to basic socioeconomic infrastructure for selected local communities along the Zinder–Agadez road Indicator Name Share of beneficiaries reporting satisfaction with project activities (Percentage) Share of beneficiaries reporting satisfaction with project activities. This includes beneficiaries of all project activities, including the Zinder –Agadez road, Description rural roads, socioeconomic infrastructure, other women’s empowerment activities, etc. Frequency Annual Data Source Reports/surveys Methodology for Data The survey will be conduced using ICT and an independent focal point. Collection Responsibility for Data PCU Collection Page 30 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) PROJECT PAPER Monitoring and Evaluation Plan Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Results Area Component 1: Road reconstruction, maintenance and safety improvements along the Zinder –Agadez road section Indicator Name Length of road receiving rehabilitation that incorporates climate-resilient measures (Kilometers) Description Length of road receiving rehabilitation that incorporates climate-resilient measures Frequency Annual Data Source Contractor Methodology for Data Provisional acceptance report of the supervision engineer Collection Responsibility for Data PCU/DGGT (Direction Générale des Grands Travaux or General Directorate of Major Works) Collection Indicator Name Length of road receiving periodic climate-resilient maintenance (Kilometers) Description Length of road receiving periodic climate-resilient maintenance Frequency Yearly Data Source Contractor Methodology for Data Project implementation and civil works monitoring reports Collection Responsibility for Data PCU/DGGT Collection Indicator Name New culverts installed on the roads (Number) Description New culverts installed on the roads to improve water drainage during heavy rainfall/flood events Page 31 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) PROJECT PAPER Frequency Annual Data Source Contractor Methodology for Data Provisional acceptance report of the supervision engineer Collection Responsibility for Data PCU/DGGT Collection Indicator Name Number of person-days of employment created (Number) Description Number of temporary jobs created by companies during the project implementation period Frequency Annual Data Source Site report, monitoring evaluation report Methodology for Data Cumulated daily jobs created by each contract (using site log) Collection Responsibility for Data PCU/DGGT Collection Indicator Name Road safety performance of contractor on the Zinder–Tiguidit road segment (Percentage) This indicator reports annually on the monthly performance of the contractor with regard to performance operational criterion 8 under the OPRC contract. Description This criterion traces the contractor’s frequent maintenance and/or replacement of road safety signalling and equipment on the Zinder–Tiguidit road segment. The indicator annualizes the number of months for which this performance has been achieved as a portion of the year. Frequency Annual Data Source Inspection/audit reports Methodology for Data Provisional acceptance report of the consultant Collection Responsibility for Data PCU/DGGT/ANISER Collection Indicator Name People with enhanced access to transportation services (Number) Page 32 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) PROJECT PAPER As agreed with the PCU during a meeting on October 5, 2023, the wording of the previous indicator (“Number of direct beneficiaries that experience Description improved access to transport infrastructure and services that have been built or rehabilitated through a WBG-financed project”) has been revised to comply with the mandatory IDA transport indicator wording. Frequency Annual Data Source Survey Methodology for Data A two-kilometer buffer zone along the project road sections and a list of the villages located in the buffer zone. The population of these villages is then Collection drawn from the population census and adjusted for population growth with a rate of 3 percent per year. Responsibility for Data PCU Collection Results Area Component 2: Improved accessibility and community infrastructure along the Zinder –Agadez road section Indicator Name Share of socioeconomic infrastructure built or rehabilitated (Percentage) Percentage of the targeted socioeconomic infrastructure (pastoral wells, vaccination platforms, livestock markets, schools, health centers, etc.) built or Description rehabilitated by the project. The targeted socioeconomic infrastructure to be constructed or rehabilitated will be defined in the first year of the project implementation based on consultation with communities and the criteria as defined in the Project Implementation Manual. Frequency Annual Data Source Contractor Methodology for Data Provisional acceptance report of the supervision engineer Collection Responsibility for Data Project coordination unit/DGGT Collection Indicator Name Share of rural roads constructed or rehabilitated (Percentage) Construction of rural roads (from 7 to 15 km) to connect the agropastoral production basins to the main road for the communes the Tanout–Tiguidit road Description section passes through. Frequency Annual Data Source Contractor Page 33 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) PROJECT PAPER Methodology for Data Provisional acceptance report of the supervision engineer Collection Responsibility for Data PCU/DGGT/DGGR (Direction Générale du Génie Rural or General Directorate of Rural Engineering) Collection Indicator Name Percentage of women employed in construction and maintenance (Percentage) Description Percentage of women employed in construction and maintenance Frequency Annual Data Source Contractor Methodology for Data Provisional acceptance report of the supervision engineer Collection Responsibility for Data PCU Collection Indicator Name Gender Action Plan available (Yes/No) A Gender Action Plan will be developed for the project that includes analysis of the barriers and facilitators that women face in the sector, as well as Description project-specific recommendations and activities to address these barriers. Frequency Annual Data Source Reports/Project Implementation Manual Methodology for Data Gender Action Plan prepared by a consultant Collection Responsibility for Data PCU Collection Results Area Component 3: Project management and implementation support Indicator Name Complaints addressed within the stipulated GRM time frame (Percentage) Description Percentage of all grievances received through the project-level GRM and addressed (feedback to complaints) within the time frame stipulated in the GRM Page 34 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) PROJECT PAPER Frequency Annual Data Source Local registries, monitoring/evaluation report, site report, SSS report, NGO report Methodology for Data Collect all the registries and compute the number of complaints addressed on time Collection Responsibility for Data PCU Collection Indicator Name Share of GBV complaints treated and referred to service providers (Percentage) Description Ratio number of GVB-related complaints treated and referred, and total number of GBV complaints reported Frequency Annual Data Source Report of the specialized NGO Methodology for Data Ratio number of GVB-related complaints treated and referred, and total number of GBV complaints reported Collection Responsibility for Data PCU Collection Indicator Name Share of construction workers that have signed the code of conduct (Percentage) The PCU was informed by the World Bank that this indicator should always be 100 percent. The World Bank asked the PCU to give a deadline of a week so Description that all construction workers could sign the code of conduct. Frequency Annual Data Source Periodic report of the supervision engineer and the specialized NGO Methodology for Data Verification if all the workers recruited have signed the code of conduct Collection Responsibility for Data PCU Collection Results Area Component 4: Contingent emergency response component Page 35 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) PROJECT PAPER ANNEX 1: Detailed Project Costs – IDA financing Parent project amount in AF amount in Total in Project components (Additions and/or revisions per the AF) million US$ million US$ million US$ Component 1: Road reconstruction, maintenance and safety improvements 133.0 58.0 191.0 1.1 Improvement of the Zinder Agadez road corridor 128.0 51.0 179.0 AF Rehabilitation and maintenance of Tiguidt - Agadez section (62 km)* - 45.0 45.0 AF Adjustment of costs for the ongoing OPRC on the Zinder Tiguidit section (cost overrun) - 3.7 3.7 AF Ongoing (OPRC) contract extension of 2 years on the Zinder -Tiguidt section (cost overrun) - 1.5 1.5 AF MSV (Mission of verification and supervision) for OPRC contract extension - 0.8 0.8 1.2: Road safety improvement program along the Zinder - Agadez road section 5.0 2.0 7.0 1.3 Long-term management and sustainability of the RN 11 corridor - 5.0 5.0 Component 2: Improved accessibility and community infrastructure along the Zinder – Agadez Road Section 32.0 28.0 60.0 2.1: Improved accessibility 31.3 23.0 54.3 2.2: Community support for women 0.7 5.0 5.7 2.3: Citizen engagement 0.0 - 0.0 Component 3: Project management and implementation support 10.0 4.0 14.0 3.1: Project Management 6.0 2.0 8.0 3.2: Supporting preventive and risk mitigating measures for SEA, SH, violence against children, gender-based 4.0 2.0 6.0 violence (“GBV”), and risks of human trafficking** TOTAL 175.0 90.0 265.0 Page 36 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) PROJECT PAPER ANNEX 2: Project Map Page 37 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) PROJECT PAPER ANNEX 3: Description of OPRC Arrangement under the Parent Project and Proposed Changes under AF Page 38 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) PROJECT PAPER ANNEX 4: Proposed Changes to the Results Framework PDO: To enhance climate-resilient connectivity and road safety and to improve access to basic socioeconomic infrastructure for selected communities in northeastern Niger. Original (PAD) Proposed Change Comments/Rationale for Change PDO Indicators * All indicators from the parent project are revised to reflect two years extension of project closing date. Travel time for private vehicles between Agadez and Zinder (Hours) No change. No change. Travel time of passenger transport vehicles between Agadez and Zinder (Hours) No change. No change. Travel time of commercial goods vehicles between Agadez and Zinder (Hours) No change. No change. Methodology adjusted. Percentage measurement was very challenging, so the indicator has been Fatalities on the Tanout–Tiguidit section (Number) adjusted to measure the number of fatalities. Share of beneficiaries reporting satisfaction with the selected rural community infrastructure No change. No change. (Percentage) Direct users that benefit from improved access to sustainable transport infrastructure and New. Climate corporate scorecard indicator services (female, youth) (Number) added. Intermediate Results Indicators (Component 1): Road reconstruction, maintenance, and safety improvements along the Agadez–Zinder section * All indicators from the parent project are revised to reflect two years extension of project closing date. Length of road receiving rehabilitation that incorporates climate-resilient measures Target increased to 288 km. Incorporates the additional 62 km of (Kilometers) rehabilitation financed under the AF. Page 39 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) PROJECT PAPER Original (PAD) Proposed Change Comments/Rationale for Change Target decreased to 363 km. Incorporates the 62 km of planned Length of road receiving periodic climate-resilient maintenance (Kilometers) maintenance being rehabilitated instead. Dropped. Dropped, as this is not representative of the project activities. The road is to be rehabilitated to climate-resilient standards independent of the number New culverts installed on the roads (Number) of culverts. The number of culverts can vary drastically depending on road conditions. Person-days of employment created (Number) No change. No change. Dropped. Dropped. Indicator replaced by better Length of road undergoing yearly road safety inspections (Kilometers) road safety indicator added below. New. New indicator to better assess road safety activities being supported by the Road safety performance of contractor on the Zinder–Tiguidit road segment (Percentage) project. Baseline: 10 (2024). Final target: 80. Dropped. Intermediate indicator introduced during the retrofit exercise in October People with enhanced access to transportation services (Number) 2023, which has been replaced by climate corporate scorecard indicator added at PDO level. Intermediate Results Indicators (Component 2): Improved accessibility and community infrastructure along National Road No11 * All indicators from the parent project are revised to reflect two years extension of project closing date. Share of socioeconomic infrastructure built or rehabilitated (Percentage) No change. No change. Page 40 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) PROJECT PAPER Original (PAD) Proposed Change Comments/Rationale for Change Dropped. Replaced by number of kilometers Share of rural roads constructed or rehabilitated (Percentage) indicator below. Dropped. Indicator replaced by gender indicators Women employed in construction and maintenance (Percentage) to better reflect the impact of women’s empowerment activities. Gender Action Plan available (Yes/No) No change. No change. New. New indicator added for the AF, with end target of 300 km (100 km from the Rural roads rehabilitated incorporating climate-resilient measures (Kilometers) original project design and 200 km under the AF). New. New indicator to better reflect women’s Increase in average annual revenue of the supported women-led associations (Percentage) empowerment activities. Baseline: 0. Final target: 20. New. New indicator to better reflect women’s empowerment activities. Women beneficiaries using targeted community infrastructure (Number) Baseline: 0. Final target: 30,000. (Estimated as 30% of current rural population served.) New. New indicator to better reflect women’s Women certified in construction and maintenance road works through training provided by empowerment activities. the project (Number) Baseline: 0. Final target: 50. Intermediate Results indicators (Component 3): * All indicators from the parent project are revised to reflect two years extension of project closing date. Complaints addressed within the stipulated GRM time frame (Percentage) No change. No change. Share of GBV complaints treated and referred to service providers (Percentage) No change. No change. Share of construction workers that have signed the code of conduct (Percentage) No change. No change. Page 41 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) ANNEX 5: Visual Description of Support Provided to Women-Led Associations under Subcomponent 2.2 Implementation arrangements for subcomponent 2.2 PCU retains its procurement and financial management responsibilities Signature of an MOU between PIU and Directorate of Women Directorate of women Signature of a contract between PIU supervises the implementation of and Consulting firm or service provider National subcomponent 2.2 (no delegation of Observatory fiduciary responsibilities) for Women's Advancement Business Plan , National grants and Observatory equipment for Women's Consulting firm or service provider request Advancement contracted by PIU Provision technical assistance and guidance Provision of subsidies: grants and equipments, according to a grants agreements Women association Supervision Signature of contract Provision Report to The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) ANNEX 6: Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Climate and Disaster Risk Screening A high-level Climate and Disaster Risk Screening conducted for the AF identified that the main climate change-related hazards for the project are floods, extreme heat, and sand and dust storms, and that these natural hazards are expected to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change. Niger is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change; it is ranked 185 out of 187 countries in the ND-GAIN Country Vulnerability Index, placing it among the most vulnerable countries in the world.47 Niger experiences recurrent droughts, floods, extreme temperatures that can reach 49.5°C, violent winds, sand and dust storms, and wildfires.48 Climate projections show an increase in average temperatures of 1.6–2.9°C by 2050, an intensification of rainfall events (increasing the risk of floods), and an increase in the duration of dry periods that can lead to droughts. Climate change and related natural hazards in Niger impact transport infrastructure and connectivity, with indirect impacts on agricultural and economic activities and access to basic goods and services. Floods, extreme temperatures, and sand and dust storms deteriorate and damage roads, affect road transport operations, increase maintenance and rehabilitation costs, and create delays for passengers and freight transport, which increase overall transport costs. Roads are sensitive to extreme heat, which deteriorates the quality of pavements and shoulders, reducing travel speeds and increasing travel times. Extreme heat increases the need for road repairs, generating asset downtime during maintenance and rehabilitation activities. Flooding can damage culverts, road pavements, foundations, and shoulders due to the erosive force of water and debris, and can result in road closures during flooding and for the repair and reconstruction of damaged sections. Sand and dust storms and dune migration require roads and culverts to be cleared more frequently, resulting in road closures and adding to maintenance costs. The road section between Aderbissinat and Tiguidit is particularly exposed to migrating dunes that block the roads, thus requiring regular maintenance and adding to maintenance costs. As climate hazards accelerate the degradation of the road network, this affects connectivity, with detrimental impacts to agricultural activities, the economy, and the well-being of communities. Furthermore, extreme heat, droughts, and floods negatively impact harvest yields and cause post-harvest losses and food waste, contributing to food insecurity. This AF aims to rehabilitate to climate-resilient standards49 the Tiguidit–Agadez road section of RN 11 and rural access roads, which have been heavily damaged by extreme heat and floods, reducing the roads ’ economic life from 20 to 5 years. The Tiguidit–Agadez road section deteriorated rapidly after completion in 2019 as a result of exposure to climate impacts and the road’s vulnerability due to poor design standards and construction materials that were not fully adapted to Niger’s climate conditions. The proposed AF incorporates lessons learned with the parent project and is informed by the Climate Risks and Resilience and Adaptation Options Appraisal Report funded by the Global Center on Adaptation and the Regional Decarbonization and Resilience Assessment of Rural Logistics and Accessibility in the Sahel, funded by the Global Facility for Decarbonization of Transport. These studies found that many roads become impassable in the rainy season and are impacted by extreme temperatures, dune migration, and sand and dust storms that block drainage infrastructure with sand and sediment. The World Bank’s technical mission that took place in December 2024 noted that roads and other infrastructure along the Zinder–Agadez Road section were impacted by floods that occurred in August 2024. While some sections of the road requiring rehabilitation were heavily damaged, others that had been upgraded by the parent project 47 Notre Dame Gain Country Vulnerability Index, Scores for 2022. URL: https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/rankings/ 48 Thinkhazard website (URL: https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/181-niger) 49 Climate-resilient standards address current and projected climate conditions, addressing potential impacts related to extreme heat, sandstorms, changing rainfall patterns, droughts, and flood episodes. The climate-resilient standards encompass adjustments in infrastructure design as well as the deployment of targeted protection measures including grey infrastructure, nature-based solutions and soft measures along the transport asset lifecycle framework that cover: (i) systems planning; (ii) engineering design; (iii) operations and maintenance; (iv) contingency programming; and (v) institutional capacity and cooperation. The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) were not damaged, though flood water still surrounds the infrastructure (Figure 1). The August 2024 floods blocked roads to Agadez for three weeks, with initial emergency response access only possible by air, and after a few days of emergency works, via the Zinder–Agadez corridor (Figure 2). This showcases the importance of restoring the Tiguidit –Agadez road section to climate-resilient standards and the importance of regular maintenance and timely emergency works to restore the road to operational levels after a flood event to support the climate resilience of Agadez and communities along the corridor. (a) (b) Figure 1: Zinder–Agadez road section: (a) roads damaged by floods; (b) roads not damaged by floods, though clearly surrounded by flood water four months after the flood event. The AF is assessed to have an acceptable future climate and natural hazard risk rating because it incorporates hard and soft climate resilience measures in its design, reducing the physical climate risks to the AF’s outcome and the residual risk to an acceptable level. Integrating Climate Adaptation and Mitigation in the Project Design Component 1: Road reconstruction, maintenance, and safety improvements along the Zinder–Agadez road section (AF: US$58 million) Subcomponent 1.1: Rehabilitation and maintenance of the Zinder–Agadez section (AF allocation: US$51 million) Adaptation: The rehabilitation and upgrading of the Tiguidit–Agadez section to climate-resilient standards under the AF will enable year-round connectivity, also during and after extreme flood events, thus strengthening the resilience of Agadez and communities along the corridor. Civil works will use climate-informed design standards and materials to ensure resilience to extreme heat, floods, and dune migration. Examples of the climate resilience measures to be deployed include the selection of climate-resilient materials for all construction elements to accommodate rising temperatures and increased risks from The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) floods and erosion; hydroseeding of slopes around culverts for 20 meters around all structures; resizing of culverts and other drainage structures to accommodate more rainwater discharge; plantation of dunes that show high risk of migration with resistant vegetation as a barrier to slow down wind and intercept sand and debris; and the deployment of the Green Roads for Water approach, establishing ponds for harvesting rainwater runoff and flood water for use in agricultural activities. The incremental cost for climate resilience is estimated at US$30.8 million out of a total of US$45 million, representing 68.4 percent of the AF allocated to the rehabilitation and maintenance of the Tiguidit–Agadez section. This component will also strengthen the institutional capacity for the supervision of OPRCs that provide climate-resilient road asset management for the 425.3 km of road—the Zinder to Agadez road section. The OPRCs include climate resilience as part of operational performance criteria (e.g., roads with no potholes; clear road shoulders; clear drainage; delivery of emergency works after floods and other natural disasters; roads cleared of sand, sediment, and debris). The climate-resilient asset management practices under the OPRCs entail the following: the inspection of hydraulic structures before the first rains of the rainy season; more frequent cleaning of gutters and longitudinal ditches during the rainy season; systematic monitoring of hydraulic structures considering climate resilience considerations (in the event of submersion or malfunction of hydraulic structures, an urgent intervention will be triggered to strengthen the hydraulic capacity and protect road infrastructure and local communities); clearing of silting; increasing the frequency of monitoring dunes and their stabilization and management throughout the year; and use of bitumen for roadway surfacing that is more resilient to hot climates. The incremental cost for climate resilience is estimated at US$4.4 million out of US$6 million, representing 74.1 percent of the AF allocated to adjustment of costs for the ongoing OPRC on the Zinder–Tiguidit road section, extension of two years of the ongoing OPRC contract on the Zinder–Tiguidit section, and verification and supervision missions for OPRC contract extension. Figure 2: Zinder–Agadez Road sections damaged by floods of August 2024 and emergency works Before After The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) Before After Mitigation: The road upgrades will adopt the full-street concept and include provisions for safe use by pedestrians and cyclists. This includes low-carbon transport modes such as walking and cycling. Interventions include the construction or rehabilitation of sidewalks and pedestrian crossings and the provision of solar-powered street lighting. Subcomponent 1.2: Road safety improvement program along the Zinder–Agadez road section (AF: US$2 million) Adaptation: The AF supports the scale-up of road safety enhancements through the provision of signage, including for climate change–related natural hazards such as dune migration. The signage and speed management equipment will be protected from the impact of climate-related hazards. Examples of interventions to enhance climate resilience include positioning equipment in sturdy and elevated locations, protective infrastructure, and shelter provisions against sandstorms and dune migration. Subcomponent 1.3: Long-term management and sustainability of the RN 11 corridor (AF: US$ 5 million) Adaptation: This subcomponent strengthens the Road Asset Management Fund, which is essential for the continued funding of enhanced regular and periodic maintenance activities mitigating potential climate risks in the road network more broadly by integrating climate risks and resilience considerations in the country’s road asset management systems and road maintenance practices (e.g., use of climate-informed maintenance protocols and techniques). Additionally, the subcomponent finances the installation of weighing stations and toll booths, integrating climate resilience considerations into site selection and design to reduce exposure to climate risks associated with floods, extreme heat, dune migration, and sandstorms. Mitigation: The Road Asset Management Fund will ensure sustainable financing for maintenance activities related to non- motorized transport facilities (sidewalks, pedestrian crossings, street lighting). This subcomponent also funds the installation of weighing stations and toll booths, which are essential for motorization management and regulation of logistics and transport activities. Weighing stations and toll booths will be fully electrified and energy-efficient and will use solar power. Component 2: Improved accessibility and community infrastructure along the Zinder –Agadez road section (AF: US$ 28 million) Subcomponent 2.1: Improved climate-adaptive accessibility (AF: US$23 million) Adaptation: The additional finance will rehabilitate and upgrade 200 km of rural feeder roads to climate-resilient standards, strengthening the climate resilience of road infrastructure, the road network, and the local communities served. The feeder roads enable climate-adaptive, year-round access to basic social services, markets, and traded goods, reducing food insecurity and facilitating emergency response—and therefore generating transformational benefits in the rural The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) communities that go beyond climate-proofing of infrastructure, contributing to their climate resilience. Examples of the climate resilience measures that will enable “resilience of and through” effects to be deployed include the following: the use of climate-resilient design standards, ensuring the reinforcement of longitudinal and transverse hydraulic structures, diverging ditches, guard ditches, and protective earth dikes; covering of ditches crossing urban areas; sizing of all these hydraulic works with a greater frequency of return periods for rainfall events and taking into account the increase in silting due to stronger winds resulting from climate change; plantation of dunes that show high risk of migration with resistant vegetation as a barrier to slow down wind and intercept sand and debris; and deployment of the Green Roads for Water approach with the establishment of ponds for harvesting rainwater runoff and flood waters to be used for agricultural purposes. It is estimated that the rehabilitation and upgrading of rural access roads to climate resilience standards will have an incremental cost of at least US$6.2 million out of US$23 million, representing 27 percent of the AF allocated to improving climate-adaptive accessibility. Mitigation: Rural access roads will include provisions for safe use by pedestrians and cyclists, strengthening low-carbon non- motorized transport modes. Measures include the rehabilitation of sidewalks and pedestrian crossings and provisions for solar-powered street lighting. Subcomponent 2.2: Community support for women (AF: US$5 million) Adaptation and mitigation: This subcomponent supports women, who are among the population segments most vulnerable to climate change impacts. This includes investments in socioeconomic infrastructure, all of which will be constructed and/or rehabilitated according to climate-resilient standards. The focus of investments will be determined based on a needs assessment and may include the following: (1) resilience funds that include subsidies towards climate-adapted activities (e.g., climate-resilient seed varieties and inputs for agriculture); (2) capacity-building and awareness-raising activities on climate change impacts and disaster and emergency preparedness; and (3) provisions for dry and cold storage facilities for agricultural products, aimed at reducing post-harvest losses and facilitating access to food products even during low-harvest seasons. This is particularly relevant due to increasing temperatures and extreme events such as floods and droughts. The incremental costs of climate resilience are estimated at US$2.2 million out of US$5 million, representing 44.8 percent of the AF allocated to community support for women. The subcomponent will also invest in energy-efficient agricultural processing equipment. Investments will consider climate resilience and mitigation considerations such as the deployment of energy- efficient, fully electrified, and solar-powered storage facilities that use climate-friendly refrigerants. Technologies will be deployed to minimize HFC leakages. Component 3: Project management and implementation support (AF: US$4 million) Adaptation and mitigation: This component is required for the successful implementation of the AF and will integrate climate considerations as relevant. Component 4: Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) (US$0 million) Adaptation: This component will draw from the uncommitted resources under the project to cover emergency response and reconstruction activities, including those related to climate change-related extreme events. The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) ANNEX 7: Economic Analysis A. Economic Analysis of the Rehabilitation of the Tiguidit–Agadez Road Section 1. To ensure that the project generates sufficient economic benefits to justify the investments, a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted for the rehabilitation of the Tiguidit–Agadez road section, which is part of the full Zinder–Agadez road, using the Highway Development and Management Model (HDM-4). This model calculates the annual road agency and user costs for each project alternative over the evaluation period, comparing the proposed project investments with a scenario without such investments. The analysis begins by calculating the quantities of resources consumed and vehicle speeds, which are then multiplied by unit costs to derive total vehicle operating costs, travel time costs, and CO2 emissions. These factors are influenced by traffic volume and composition, as well as road surface type, geometric characteristics, and roughness. 2. The quantified net benefits computed by HDM-4 for the project road include vehicle operating costs, travel time costs, road maintenance costs resulting from the road improvements, road safety costs, and CO 2 emissions costs. The following assumptions were applied in the HDM-4 calculations: • A discount rate of 6 percent and an evaluation period of 20 years, starting in 2026, were applied. All costs are expressed in constant 2024 US Dollars. • The average annual increase in daily traffic is projected to be 6 percent per year from 2024 to 2045 for all vehicles, based on estimated GDP growth projections50 and an assumed elasticity of 1.0. Generated traffic is expected to account for 40 percent of the normal traffic following the road improvements. • The road rehabilitation works are estimated to begin in 2026, with a duration of two years. Economic costs are assumed to be 87 percent of the financial costs. • The social cost of carbon is projected to be US$116 per ton of CO2 equivalent in 2026, increasing to US$179 per ton of CO2 equivalent in 2045. These values are based on the high scenario for the social cost of carbon, as outlined in the 2024 World Bank guidance note on the shadow price of carbon in economic analysis, with adjustments made for the 2024 Consumer Price Index.51, 52 • The road safety impact was assessed using the Road Safety Screening and Appraisal Tool. In rural areas, the average vehicle speed is projected to increase from approximately 67 km/h without the project to around 87 km/h with the project. Conversely, in urban areas, the average vehicle speed is expected to decrease from around 60 km/h without the project to approximately 55 km/h with the project. The estimated Present Serviceability Index (PSI) score for the corridor is 0.90, which serves as a reference PSI for the base designs. 50 The GDP has grown on average at 5.8 percent per year from 2020 to 2024 in constant prices. The IMF predicts that the GDP will increase on average by 6.4 percent per year from 2025 to 2029. 51 The guidance note presents both low and high scenarios for the social cost of carbon over time. The high scenario was used due to the positive net CO2 emissions of the project. A sensitivity analysis was conducted considering the low scenario for the social cost of carbon, which is US$59 per ton equivalent in 2026, rising to US$90 per ton equivalent in 2045. Additionally, the analysis included a sensitivity scenario where the social cost of carbon is not factored in. 52 World Bank. 2024. 2024 Guidance Note on Shadow Price of Carbon in Economic Analysis (English). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. Available at: URL. The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) This PSI is based on the incorporation of adequate safety features into the design, including improved delineation and wider paved shoulders to prevent egress onto the carriageway and to provide recovery areas for errant vehicles in rural areas, as well as non-motorized transport (NMT) facilities and traffic-calming measures in urban sections. Nevertheless, in alignment with local speed regulations, the authorized speed ranges from 50Km/h et 110 Km/h. 3. The table below presents the vehicle fleet economic unit, basic characteristics, and the average traffic composition on the project roads. The economic costs reflect the costs net of duties and tax. Table 7.1: Vehicle Fleet Economic Unit Costs, and Characteristic Small Medium Small Medium Articulated Car Pickup Bus Bus Truck Truck Truck New Vehicle Cost (US$) 25,000 40,000 40,000 80,000 50,000 150,000 250,000 New Tire Cost (US$) 95 122 122 299 299 408 408 Fuel Cost (US$/liter) 0.58 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 Lubricant Cost (US$/liter) 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 Maintenance Cost (US$/hour) 1.49 2.38 2.27 4.65 1.83 8.32 14.74 Crew Cost (US$/hour) 0.00 1.41 1.41 2.36 2.36 3.21 3.21 Overhead Cost (US$/year) 1,141.30 1,811.59 1,739.13 3,568.84 1,403.99 6,385.87 1,1322.46 Interest Rate (%) 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Passenger Work Time (US$/hour) 2.83 1.41 1.41 2.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cargo Time (US$/hour) 0.00 0.71 0.00 0.00 0.71 0.71 0.71 Annual Utilization (km) 15,000 30,000 60,000 75,000 70,000 70,000 75,000 Annual Utilization (hours) 400 500 1,000 1,200 1,000 1,200 1,400 Service Life (years) 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 Number Passengers (#) 3.00 5.00 15.00 40.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 Operating Weight (tons) 1.20 1.80 1.50 6.00 2.00 13.00 28.00 ESA Loading Factor (#) 0.00 0.02 0.01 5.00 5.00 10.00 21.00 Traffic Composition (%) 11% 14% 22% 5% 14% 8% 26% 4. The AF will finance the rehabilitation of the Tiguidit–Agadez road section, which is part of the road connecting Zinder and Agadez. The project road is 62.0-km long and is expected to carry approximately 167 vehicles per day in 2026, with 48 percent of these being trucks. The road is a two-lane surface treatment in poor condition, with an estimated roughness of 9 International Roughness Index. 5. The total financial capital cost for the rehabilitation works on the project road has been estimated at US$40.0 The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) million. This includes US$30.0 million in construction costs and US$5.0 million in contingency costs, resulting in a financial unit cost of US$645,161 per kilometer and an economic unit cost of US$561,290 per kilometer. Additionally, the project will allocate US$5.0 million for supervision costs. B. Economic Analysis Results of the Rehabilitation of the Tiguidit–Agadez Road Section 6. The EIRR of the rehabilitation of the Tiguidit–Agadez road section is 10.6 percent, and the NPV is US$19.6 million, calculated at a 6 percent discount rate. This results in an NPV/investment cost ratio of 1.6. 7. Road user cost benefits (vehicle operating costs plus travel time costs) from normal traffic account for approximately 74.8 percent of the project benefits, while road user cost benefits from generated traffic account for 15.0 percent; road safety benefits make up 10.2 percent. The table below presents the distribution of the project’s net benefits. Table 7.2: Distribution of Net Benefits Normal Generated CO2 Road Agency VOC VOC Emissions Safety Total (US$ US$ (US$ (US$ (US$ (US$ million) million) million) million) million) million) -30.9 40.4 8.1 -3.5 5.5 19.6 8. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the project remains economically justified even if construction costs are 20 percent higher, if project benefits are 20 percent lower, or if both factors occur simultaneously. If construction costs were 20 percent higher and project benefits were 20 percent lower, the overall EIRR would decrease to 7.0 percent. Switching values analysis shows that construction costs would need to increase by 60 percent for the EIRR to drop to 6 percent. 9. The table below presents the sensitivity analysis results. Table 7.3: Sensitivity Analysis Results EIRR NPV (US$ (%) million) Base 10.6% 19.6 Costs + 20% 8.7% 13.0 Benefits - 20% 8.7% 10.8 Costs + 20%, Benefits -20% 7.0% 4.3 Low Social Cost of Carbon 11.0% 21.4 No Social Cost of Carbon 11.4% 23.1 C. GHG Accounting of the Rehabilitation of the Tiguidit–Agadez Road Section 10. Social value of carbon in economic analysis. Under the low social cost of carbon scenario, the EIRR is 11.0 percent, and the NPV is US$21.4 million. When the social cost of carbon is excluded from the economic analysis, the EIRR increases to 11.4 percent, and the NPV rises to US$23.1 million. The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) 11. The GHG accounting assessment53 estimates an increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on the Tiguidit–Agadez road because of the project. The baseline CO2 emissions for the project, without considering its impact, are 93,982 tons. With the project, the gross CO2 emissions increase to 139,407 tons. Consequently, the total net CO2 emissions for the project road amount to 45,425 tons, with annual net CO2 emissions of 2,271 tons per year. The increase in CO2 emissions is primarily attributed to higher fuel consumption resulting from increased vehicle speeds enabled by the project and the additional traffic generated. D. Economic Analysis of Improved Accessibility along the Zinder–Agadez Road Section 12. A cost-benefit analysis was conducted for a sample of rural roads to be rehabilitated using the RED, 54 which computes annual road agency and users’ costs for each project alternative over the evaluation period, comparing the proposed project investment program with the conditions without such investment. The AF will finance the rehabilitation of 200 km of rural access feeder roads along the length of the Zinder–Agadez corridor to support the development of nearby rural communities. The cost-benefit analysis was done for a sample of two gravel roads totaling 96.1 km. The table below presents the basic road characteristics. Table 7.4: Rural Roads Basic Characteristics 2024 Current Road Surface Terrain Length Traffic Speed Name Type Type (km) (VPD) (km/hr) Guidan Roumdji - Guidan Sori Gravel Flat 44.7 252 25 Kouran Mota - Dan Gomma Earth Rolling 51.4 158 15 Total 96.1 202 20 13. The economic analysis for the rehabilitation of the rural roads was conducted using the same vehicle fleet characteristics and assumptions as those applied to the rehabilitation of the Tiguidit –Agadez road section. These assumptions include a 20-year evaluation period, a 6 percent discount rate, costs in 2024 US dollars, an economic cost factor of 0.87, and a 6 percent traffic growth rate. For the rural roads, no generated traffic was considered, and the low values for the social cost of carbon were adopted due to the anticipated reduction in CO2 emissions. The estimated rehabilitation cost per kilometer is CFAF 15,000,000 (equivalent to US$27,174 per km), resulting in a total investment of US$2.61 million for the two sample roads. Following rehabilitation, the expected average speed will increase to 40 km/hour. 14. The EIRR of the rehabilitation of the two rural roads is 49.9 percent, and the NPV is US$17.2 million, calculated at a 6 percent discount rate. If construction costs were 20 percent higher and project benefits were 20 percent lower, the overall EIRR would decrease to 35.5 percent. The table below presents the economic analysis results. Table 7.5: Economic Analysis Results A: B: Investment Base Base Cost+20% Ben=20% A+B Road Cost NPV EIRR EIRR EIRR EIRR (US$ (US$ Name million) million) (%) (%) (%) (%) Guidan Roumdji - Guidan Sori 1.21 7.84 49.1% 42.1% 40.7% 34.9% 53 The methodology used to conduct the GHG accounting assessment is the following: Andreas Dietrich Kopp. 2016. Measurement for Mitigation – Greenhouse Gas Analysis for Low-emissions Transport. 54 RED is a software tool for the analysis and appraisal of road maintenance, improvements, and investment decisions on low-volume roads. The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) Kouran Mota - Dan Gomma 1.40 9.34 50.6% 43.3% 41.8% 35.9% Total 2.61 17.19 49.9% 42.7% 41.3% 35.5% 15. The GHG accounting assessment estimates a decrease in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on the two sample rural roads because of the project. The baseline CO2 emissions for the project, without considering its impact, are 73,767 tons. With the project, the gross CO2 emissions decrease to 72,073 tons. Consequently, the total net CO2 emissions for the two sample rural roads amount to -1,694 tons, with annual net CO2 emissions of -85 tons per year. The decrease in CO2 emissions is primarily attributed to lower fuel consumption resulting from increased vehicle speeds enabled by the project. 16. The economic analysis results for the 200 km of rural roads to be financed under the project were estimated by extrapolating the findings from the two sample roads. For the 200 km, the base EIRR is 49.9 percent, and the base NPV is US$35.8 million. Baseline CO2 emissions amount to 153,505 tons. With the project, gross CO2 emissions will decrease to 149,981 tons. As a result, the total net CO2 emissions for the 200 km of rural roads are -3,524 tons, with annual net CO2 emissions of -176 tons per year. E. Economic Analysis Total Results for Rehabilitation of Tiguidit–Agadez Road and 200 km of Rural Roads 17. The economic analysis for both project components, comprising the rehabilitation of the Tiguidit–Agadez road (62km) and rehabilitation of the 200-km rural road, were computed by adding the corresponding results. For both AF project components, the base EIRR is 13.7 percent, and the base NPV is US$55.4 million. If construction costs were 20 percent higher and project benefits were 20 percent lower, the overall EIRR would decrease to 9.2 percent. Baseline CO2 emissions amount to 247,487 tons. With the project, gross CO2 emissions will increase to 289,388 tons. As a result, the total net CO2 emissions for both project components are 41,901 tons, with annual net CO2 emissions of 2,095 tons per year. F. Public Sector Financing and World Bank Value Added 18. Private sector financing is not available to undertake a roads project of this nature in Niger. Public sector financing is the appropriate means of funding the proposed road works, as the civil works costs cannot be recovered through tariffs due to the low traffic volume on the project roads. 19. The World Bank’s role is justified because of the project’s economic and social benefits. The World Bank’s engagement in Niger’s road sector adds value in several ways, including: (i) bringing global expertise in performance - based road contracts; (ii) providing best practices in climate-resilient transport and sustainable maintenance solutions; and (iii) assisting in addressing environmental and social safeguards. The World Bank ENHANCING NIGER NORTHEASTERN CONNECTIVITY ADDITIONAL FINANCING (P171793) ANNEX 8: Revised Theory of Change Problem statement: Poor road quality and safety standards, poor access to social services, and high climate change vulnerability. Activities/Inputs Outputs Short-term outcomes Medium-term outcomes Long-term outcomes Parent project Reduced Travel Time ▪ Reconstruction / rehabilitation of Tanout- Improved access to Trans- Tiguidit road segment of RN No11 ▪ 288 km of rehabilitated Saharan corridor ▪ Performance-based management of climate-resilient road segment Zinder-Tiguidit segment of RN No11 in Zinder-Agadez corridor Reduced vehicle operating Additional financing ▪ 363 km of maintained climate- costs ▪ Extension / addressing cost overruns for resilient road segment in Improved climate Zinder-Tiguidit segment of RN No11 Zinder-Agadez corridor resilient connectivity (all- ▪ Rehabilitation of 62km Tiguidit-Agadez Enhanced road safety weather rural access) road segment of RN No11 standards ▪ Road safety physical measures Parent project implemented along Zinder- ▪ Capacity building of ANISER Agadez corridor Enhanced capacity for road Improved climate Improved livelihoods and ▪ International “safe system approach” to ▪ Improved ANISER capacity safety management resilient access to socio- climate resilience of local ▪ Radars and road safety road safety for Zinder-Agadez corridor economic infrastructure communities through Additional financing equipment for communities along ▪ Pilot program on speed management Enhanced financial and improved access to Zinder-Agadez corridor ▪ Weighing stations and toll environmental sustainability of agriculture markets, Additional financing RN No11 Zinder-Agadez booths installed corridor economic activities and ▪ Installation of weighing stations and toll booths along Zinder-Agadez corridor Improved road safety social services ▪ 300km of rural feeder roads between Zinder-Agadez Parent project constructed Enhanced access to social ▪ Construction of 100km of feeder roads ▪ Rehabilitated socio-economic services and Zinder-Agadez ▪ Construction / rehabilitation of small infrastructure corridor ▪ Women’s cooperatives / Improved income and community infrastructure Additional financing associations supported opportunities for women- ▪ Construction of 200km of feeder roads ▪ Targeted community Increase in annual income of led associations and ▪ Additional construction / rehabilitation of infrastructure the newly created cooperatives socio-economic infrastructure for women built/rehabilitated cooperatives/associations ▪ Community support for women (adapted from previous project design) Improved usage of community ▪ Grievance Redress System in infrastructure to access basic Community satisfaction / place services participation Parent project ▪ Monitoring of SEA/SH and ▪ Activities to prevent SEA/SH and other human trafficking risks GBV risks ▪ SEA/SH workshops and Better standards to prevent trainings GBV and human trafficking Critical assumptions: (i) resilience measures implemented properly for road design and rehabilitation, socioeconomic infrastructure investments, etc;. and (ii) adequate financial resources for all road maintenance in the long term. 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