LEBANON RAPID DAMAGE AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT (RDNA) MARCH 2025 © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: +1-202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. 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The risk of claims resulting from such infringements rests solely with you. If you wish to reuse a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that reuse and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org Design: Sarah Alameddine Cover and report photos: Mohamad Azakir/World Bank LEBANON RAPID DAMAGE AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT (RDNA) MARCH 2025 Disclaimer This report summarizes the findings of the Lebanon Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment based on data covering the period October 8, 2023, to December 20, 2024 (inclusive). Although all efforts have been made to improve the accuracy of the information that was collected and analyzed, the assessment was produced in a quick timeframe and is not a replacement of in-depth sector- specific assessments. TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS & ACRONYMS.................................................................................... 4 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS................................................................................................... 6 OVERVIEW..................................................................................................................... 8 Key Facts......................................................................................................................................................... 11 ‫لمحة عامة‬........................................................................................................................................................ 12 Aperçu Général ............................................................................................................................................. 15 Summary of Assessment Findings.............................................................................................................. 19 Damage .................................................................................................................................................................19 Losses ...................................................................................................................................................................20 Recovery and reconstruction needs ................................................................................................................21 Displacement........................................................................................................................................................23 SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS......................................................................... 25 Agriculture & Food Security.......................................................................................................................... 26 Commerce, Industry & Tourism.................................................................................................................... 29 Education........................................................................................................................................................ 32 Energy............................................................................................................................................................. 34 Environment & Debris Management............................................................................................................ 36 Health.............................................................................................................................................................. 39 Housing........................................................................................................................................................... 42 Municipal & Public Services.......................................................................................................................... 44 Transport........................................................................................................................................................ 46 Water, Wastewater & Irrigation.................................................................................................................... 48 METHODOLOGY, DATA & LIMITATIONS...................................................................... 51 Methodology for damage, loss, and needs assessment...............................................................................52 Methodology for the macroeconomic analysis...............................................................................................52 Limitations.............................................................................................................................................................52 Annex A: Detailed Methodology Note........................................................................................................... 54 Annex B: Average Unit Sizes and Unit Costs............................................................................................... 74 Annex C: Maps and Figures........................................................................................................................... 83 List of Tables Table 1: Summary of damage per sector.......................................................................................................................................... 19 Table 2: Geographic distribution of damage.................................................................................................................................... 19 Table 3: Summary of losses per sector.............................................................................................................................................20 Table 4: Geographic distribution of losses.......................................................................................................................................20 Table 5: Summary of recovery and reconstruction needs per sector.....................................................................................21 Table 6: Geographic distribution of recovery and reconstruction needs................................................................................21 Table 7: Summary of estimated recovery and reconstruction needs in the immediate, short, and medium term .22 Table 8: Summary of damage, losses, and needs by sector .....................................................................................................23 Table 9: Damage, losses, and needs for the Agriculture & Food Security sector................................................................28 Table 10: Damage, losses, and needs for the Commerce, Industry & Tourism sector.......................................................31 Table 11: Damage, losses, and needs for the Education sector.................................................................................................33 Table 12: Damage, losses, and needs for the Energy sector......................................................................................................35 Table 13: Damage, losses, and needs for the Environment & Debris Management sector...............................................37 Table 14: Damage, losses, and needs for the Health sector.......................................................................................................40 Table 15: Damage, losses, and needs for the Housing sector....................................................................................................43 Table 16: Damage, losses, and needs for the Municipal & Public Services sector..............................................................45 Table 17: Damage, losses, and needs for the Transport sector.................................................................................................47 Table 18: Damage, losses, and needs for the Water, Wastewater & Irrigation sector........................................................49 List of Figures Figure C1: Agriculture & Food Security sector aggregated losses per district....................................................................83 Figure C2: Damaged Commerce, Industry & Tourism sector establishments......................................................................84 Figure C3: Lebanon return movements............................................................................................................................................85 Figure C4: Damaged Education sector facilities.............................................................................................................................86 Figure C5: Damage to Health sector facilities.................................................................................................................................87 Figure C6: Housing sector damage: percentage of damaged residential buildings at municipality level ...................88 Figure C7: Pre and post-conflict accessibility: travel time to nearest agglomeration ......................................................89 Figure C8: Transport sector impacted Roads and Tunnels.........................................................................................................91 Figure C9: Water, Wastewater & Irrigation sector functionality and damage.......................................................................92 4 ABBREVIATIONS & ACRONYMS AI.......................... artificial intelligence CapEx................... capital expenditure CAS...................... Central Administration of Statistics CDR...................... Council for Development and Reconstruction cm........................ centimeters CNRS-L................ National Council for Scientific Research - Lebanon DaLA.................... Damage and Loss Assessment DALY.................... disability-adjusted life year dNBR.................... differenced Normalized Burn Ratio DSP...................... Distribution Service Provider DTM...................... Displacement Tracking Matrix E&S...................... environmental and social EDL....................... Electricité du Liban ESA...................... European Space Agency EU......................... European Union FAO....................... Food and Agriculture Organization GDP...................... gross domestic product GWh...................... gigawatt hours ha......................... hectares HRH...................... human resources for health HV......................... high voltage ICT........................ information and communication technology IDP........................ internally displaced person IOM....................... International Organization for Migration IPC........................ Integrated Food Security Phase Classification KII......................... key informant interview km........................ kilometers L........................... liters LV......................... low voltage m.......................... meters m²......................... square meters MEHE.................... Ministry of Education and Higher Education MIDAS.................. mixed data sampling ABBREVIATIONS & ACRONYMS 5 ML........................ machine learning MoE...................... Ministry of Environment MoPH.................... Ministry of Public Health MV........................ medium voltage MW....................... megawatt NCNE.................... National Center for Natural Hazards and Early Warning NGO...................... non-governmental organization OCHA.................... United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs OEA...................... Order of Engineers and Architects OSM...................... Open Street Map PAI........................ publicly available information PDNA.................... Post-Disaster Needs Assessment PHEOC.................. Public Health Emergency Operation Center PISA..................... Program for International Student Assessment PoB....................... Port of Beirut PV......................... photovoltaic Q1-Q2-Q3-Q4....... Quarters of a calendar year RDNA.................... Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment SAR...................... synthetic aperture radar SPF....................... State and Peacebuilding Fund SWM..................... solid waste management t/d......................... tons per day TA......................... technical assistance TIMSS................... Trends in Mathematics and Science Study TVET.................... technical and vocational education and training UGC...................... underground cables UN........................ United Nations UNDP.................... United Nations Development Programme UNEP.................... United Nations Environment Programme UNICEF................. United Nations Children’s Fund US$....................... United States dollar WASH................... water, sanitation, and hygiene WFP...................... World Food Programme ABBREVIATIONS & ACRONYMS 6 WHO..................... World Health Organization ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Lebanon Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) was conducted at the request of the Government of Lebanon by the World Bank, in collaboration with the National Council for Scientific Research – Lebanon (CNRS-L). The World Bank team extends its appreciation to CNRS-L for its technical collaboration and support to the RDNA. Its contributions have helped address baseline, damage, and functionality gaps within the sectoral assessments, and have helped validate key data and assumptions, strengthening the robustness and accuracy of the assessment. Special thanks are extended to Her Excellency Dr. Tamara Elzein, CNRS-L Secretary General, and Dr. Chadi Abdallah, Director of the National Center for Natural Hazards and Early Warning (NCNE) of CNRS-L, for their leadership and dedication. The World Bank team is also thankful to all line ministries, government agencies, and municipalities who contributed to this report. The World Bank team extends its gratitude to the following development partners and United Nations agencies: Agence Française de Développement (AFD), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), International Organization for Migration (IOM), UN-Habitat, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), World Food Programme (WFP), and World Health Organization (WHO) for their close engagement with the sectoral teams at the technical level. Their support in sharing data and validating key assumptions has been invaluable in enhancing the accuracy of the assessment. The assessment was prepared by a multidisciplinary World Bank team led by Philipp Petermann (Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist) and Joy Aoun (Senior Strategy Officer), under the strategic guidance of Jean-Christophe Carret (Country Director for the Middle East Department (Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria)) and Catherine Signe Tovey (Practice Manager for Urban, Resilience and Land in the Middle East and North Africa). The core team included Rob Pilkington (Senior Urban Finance Specialist), Ban Edilbi (Urban Specialist), Elie Mahfouz (Consultant), Fares Salem (Consultant), Ghizlane Aqariden (Consultant), Pol Nadal Cros (Consultant), Sara Boughedir (Consultant), and Randy Rizk (Program Assistant). The team received valuable comments and inputs from Colleen Gorove-Dreyhaupt (Manager, External Affairs Unit), Daria Goldstein (Lead Counsel), Zoe Trohanis (Lead Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Karima Ben Bih (Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist), John Anderson (Senior Operations Officer), and Zeina El Khalil (Senior External Affairs Officer). The World Bank sector specialists who contributed to the RDNA are: 1. Agriculture & Food Security: Hadi Fathallah (E T Consultant), Melody Tamer (Consultant), and Mohamad Al Cheikh (Consultant). 2. Commerce, Industry & Tourism: Zeina El Khoury (Senior Private Sector Development Specialist) and Patricia Haydamous (Consultant). 3. Displacement: Marcelo Fabre (Senior Social Development Specialist) and Zeina Azar (Operations Officer). 4. Education: Raja Bentaouet Kattan (Lead Economist, Program Leader), Peter Holland (Lead Education Specialist), Adelle Pushparatnam (Senior Education Specialist), and Nadine Joseph El Franji (Consultant). ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 7 5. Energy: Alexis Madelain (Senior Energy Specialist) and Talal Kanaan (Energy Specialist). 6. Environment & Debris Management: Lamia Mansour (Senior Environmental Specialist), Linda Khalil (Environmental Specialist), and Farouk Merhebi (Consultant). 7. Health: Ronald Eduardo Gomez Suarez (Senior Economist, Health), Farah Asfahani (Health Specialist), and Katia Cheaito (Consultant). 8. Housing: Philipp Petermann (Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Ban Edilbi (Urban Specialist), Elie Mahfouz (Consultant), Fares Salem (Consultant), and Pol Nadal Cros (Consultant). 9. Macroeconomic Impact: Dima Krayem (Senior Economist), Ibrahim Jamali (Consultant), and Naji Abou Hamde (Analyst). 10. Municipal & Public Services: Philipp Petermann (Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Ban Edilbi (Urban Specialist), Elie Mahfouz (Consultant), Fares Salem (Consultant), and Pol Nadal Cros (Consultant). 11. Transport: Mira Morad (Senior Transport Specialist), Gaelle Samaha (Transport Specialist), and Jana Mourtada (Consultant). 12. Water, Wastewater & Irrigation: Sally Zgheib (Senior Water Supply and Sanitation Specialist), Luis Alvarez (Water Specialist), Shambhavi Priyam (Water Economist), Elvira Broeks (Senior Water Specialist), Heba Yaken Aref Ahmed (Water Resources Management Specialist), and Marcus J. Wishart (Lead Water Resources Management Specialist). The CNRS-L team members who contributed to the RDNA are: 1. AI & Image Analysis: Hadi Abd Sater, Samah Termos, and Houra Daher 2. Agriculture: Ghinwa Bdeir, Mariam Daher, and Souha Kaddoura 3. Database Management & Analysis: Elena Maalouf and Mahdi Maatouk 4. Environment & Forestry: Houssein Khatib and Safa Trad 5. Housing: Ranim Alaamar, Julian Chamseldine, Ghinwa Wazny, Angela Mekdad, and Diana Choukeir Finally, the team is thankful for the financial and technical support from the World Bank’s State and Peacebuilding Fund (SPF). The SPF is a global multi-donor fund administered by the World Bank that works with partners to address the drivers and impacts of fragility, conflict, and violence and to strengthen the resilience of countries and affected populations, communities, and institutions. The SPF is supported by Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 8 OVERVIEW 9 This report presents the Rapid Damage and for the next highest share of losses at 11 percent, Needs Assessment (RDNA) related to the impact primarily driven by the conflict’s negative impact of the 2023–2024 conflict that affected Lebanon, on riverine and coastal ecosystems. The needs are conducted by the World Bank at the request of estimated at US$8.4 billion in the immediate and the Government of Lebanon, and in collaboration short term (covering the first three recovery years, with the National Council for Scientific Research - i.e., 2025–27), and US$2.6 billion in the medium Lebanon (CNRS-L). The RDNA estimates the impact term (2028–30). The highest estimated needs are of the conflict in terms of physical damage and in Housing at US$6.3 billion (or 57 percent of the economic losses1 and identifies preliminary recovery total), and in Commerce, Industry and Tourism with and reconstruction needs over the immediate, short, US$1.8 billion (or 17 percent of the total), followed by and medium term.2 The RDNA covers the entire the infrastructure sectors with a combined US$1.0 country,3 assessing both direct and indirect impacts billion of needs (or 9 percent of the total). of the conflict4 across 10 sectors:5 Agriculture and Food Security; Commerce, Industry and Tourism; Education; Environment and Debris Management; Energy; Health; Housing; Municipal and Public Services; Transport; and Water, Wastewater and Irrigation. Alongside these estimates, the report summarizes the macroeconomic impacts of the conflict as well as displacement patterns. Unless indicated otherwise, data for the assessment covers the period between October 8, 2023, and December 20, 2024 (inclusive).6 The report finds that damage to physical assets amounts to US$6.8 billion, that the conflict has caused US$7.2 billion in economic losses, and that recovery and reconstruction needs total US$11 billion. In terms of damage, Housing is the most affected sector with damage costs amounting to US$4.6 billion (or 67 percent of the total), followed by the infrastructure sectors (Energy; Municipal and Public Services; Transport; and Water, Wastewater and Irrigation) with a combined 10 percent of the total. In terms of economic losses, which were estimated for a 26-month period,7 Commerce, Industry and Tourism is the most impacted sector, with US$3.4 billion in estimated losses (or 48 percent of the total), driven by the cumulative impact of the conflict on commercial activity across the national economy and on inbound tourism and national travel. Source: Map generated for the World Bank, Ipsos Environment and Debris Management accounts 1  Damage refers to the pre-conflict replacement value of completely destroyed or partially damaged physical assets. Losses refer to changes in economic flows that result from the interruption or reduction of production and services due to the conflict. 2  Needs refer to the cost of rebuilding infrastructure and restoring service delivery and business activity to the pre-conflict level. They cover both infrastructure reconstruction as well service delivery restoration. Needs are expressed in current prices (considering inflation) and include a build back better premium. 3  The RDNA covers all nine governorates of Lebanon (Akkar, Baalbek-Hermel, Beirut, Bekaa, Keserwan-Jbeil, Mount Lebanon, Nabatiyeh, North, and South), except for Municipal and Public Services, which assessed damage and needs in nine districts due to data limitations, while losses were assessed nationwide. 4  While direct impacts are limited to conflict-affected areas (covering 453 municipalities that have witnessed at least one conflict incident), indirect impacts extend nationwide. 5  These sectors are those requested by the Government of Lebanon to be included in this RDNA. 6  Impact from conflict events occurring after this time period were not assessed as part of this RDNA. 7  This includes the conflict period (14 months, from October 2023 to December 2024) and the first recovery year. The loss period for Agriculture and Food Security differes (see Sector Summaries). For some sectors, it is likely that losses will continue to accumulate beyond the 26-months period, depending on the speed of sectoral recovery and sector-specific criteria. OVERVIEW 10 Out of the US$11 billion in total needs, it is estimated benefited from data and technical inputs provided by that a significant portion of the recovery will need several UN agencies at the sectoral level. To ensure to be driven by the private sector, including the the relevance of the estimates and respond to urgent provision of around US$6-8 billion in financial recovery planning requirements, the assessment resources, in particular in the Housing and the was conducted over a compressed two-month Commerce, Industry and Tourism sectors. This timeline. Since the RDNA covers 10 sectors, but will likely require public support in terms of policy, not all sectors of the economy, the findings are not investment environment, banking sector reforms, and representative of total national-level damage, losses, potentially financial instruments such as guarantees and needs. Given these constraints, future recovery that can help leverage the necessary amount of planning and implementation efforts should include private capital. This also reflects that at least US$3- work to further improve upon the RDNA data through 5 billion in direct financing will be required from the the integration of more comprehensive ground- public sector side, primarily for investments in the based data collection and inclusion of additional infrastructure sectors, agriculture, environment and sectors. human development sectors (education, health). The report also includes an updated macroeconomic In geographic terms, Nabatiyeh and South analysis of the impact of the conflict. Real gross governorates are the most impacted governorates, domestic product (GDP) is now expected to contract followed by Mount Lebanon. Nabatiyeh governorate by 7.1 percent in 2024. Compared to a no-conflict has incurred the highest damage (US$3.2 billion or growth estimate of 0.9 percent, the conflict’s total 47 percent of the total), the highest losses (US$ 2.0 impact reaches -8.0 percent in 2024. This compounds billion or 28 percent of the total), and the highest the pre-existing economic crisis in Lebanon: by the needs (US$4.7 billion, or 43 percent of the total). This end of 2024, the country’s cumulative GDP decline is followed by the South Governorate, which stands at since 2019 is nearly 40 percent. 23 percent, 23 percent and 22 percent, respectively, of total damage, losses and needs. Mount Lebanon, The RDNA aims to inform recovery and which includes the southern suburbs of Beirut, has reconstruction efforts by providing a transparent also been considerably impacted and carries 16 and evidence-based assessment that is grounded percent of the total needs. Needs in Baalbek-Hermel in ‘build back better’ principles. The assessment and Bekaa represent 7 and 6 percent, respectively, of needs related to rebuilding assets as well as of the total. restoring services and business activity can inform prioritization of both recovery and reconstruction The RDNA builds on the recently published Interim efforts in geographic areas with the greatest Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLA)8 and follows needs. The assessment identifies costs that may be the globally established and recognized Post- covered by the public and private sectors to inform Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) methodology policy dialogue and decisions about appropriate jointly developed by the European Union (EU), division of responsibility for financing recovery and the World Bank, and the United Nations (UN). reconstruction needs. The costing of needs includes This methodology has been applied globally a “build back better” premium to reflect the costs of in post-disaster and post-conflict contexts to rebuilding assets in a more sustainable, green, and inform recovery and reconstruction planning. The resilient manner and help mitigate future risks. methodology for this assessment relies on a mix of ground- and remote-based data, including ground The rest of the report presents the detailed findings surveys, key informant interviews (KIIs), sample of the assessment. This includes a factsheet; key visual checks, high-resolution satellite imagery assessment findings on damage, losses, and needs; (drawing on both public and non-public sources), a macroeconomic impact assessment; displacement synthetic aperture radar analysis (public and non- analysis; followed by summary findings for each public) and social media analytics. CNRS-L provided sector and information on the methodology used. technical contributions to the report, including data The annexes include a detailed methodology note, that were used for sectoral assessments and for the unit cost assumptions, as well as maps and figures corroboration and validation of data and assumptions that support the assessment. from other sources. In addition, the assessment 8  The recently published Interim Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLA) focused on physical damage and economic losses only and was limited to six sectors. The RDNA benefits from more comprehensive data (especially ground data), covers 10 sectors and a longer time period, and provides needs estimates. As a result of these differences, damage and loss estimates across the two assessments are not directly comparable. OVERVIEW 11 KEY FINDINGS Key Facts 6.8 DAMAGES US$ billion OBJECTIVES 7.2 LOSSES US$ billion RECOVERY AND 11.0 The RDNA provides an estimate of damage, losses, RECONSTRUCTION NEEDS and recovery and reconstruction needs resulting US$ billion from the conflict. More specifically, it aims to: • Provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the conflict in terms of physical damage and economic losses. • Deliver a preliminary estimate of recovery and reconstruction needs. • Inform policy makers on recovery priorities. ​ DATA SOURCES The RDNA blends ground-based and remotely collected data. For each, various sources were used to improve the accuracy of the data. Ground-based data were provided through ground surveys, field assessments, KIIs, as well as SCOPE government organization and UN agencies; while remote data were collected through high-resolution satellite imagery from public and non-public sources, synthetic aperture radar (SAR), anonymized cellphone data, social media analytics, and publicly available data. The use of cutting-edge remote- GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE sensing technology assisted in reaching inaccessible areas and improving the corroboration of more traditional data The RDNA covers the entire country to estimate sources. See Annex 1 for more detailed information on the both the direct and indirect impacts of the methodology used. Due to the rapid nature of the assessment, conflict. the RDNA estimates are preliminary and are not a substitute for in-depth sector-specific analysis. SECTORAL SCOPE KEY MILESTONES Ceasefire November 27, 2024 The RDNA covers the following 10 sectors: announcement Agriculture and Food Security; Commerce, Industry and Tourism; Education; Environment and Debris Management; Energy; Health; December 17, 2024 RDNA request from the Housing; Municipal and Public Services; Government of Lebanon Transport; and Water, Wastewater and Irrigation. It also covers macroeconomic impact RDNA data collection December 20, 2024 and displacement patterns. cut-off date January – mid-February, Analysis and collaboration 2025 with partners TEMPORAL SCOPE Presentation of preliminary February 20, 2025 RDNA findings to the Data for the assessment covers the period government of Lebanon between October 8, 2023, and December 20, 2024 (inclusive). Publication of RDNA report March 7, 2025 ‫‪12‬‬ ‫لمحة عامة‬ ‫بالمائة‪ ،‬مدفوعة بشكل أساسي بالت �أثير السلبي للنزاع‬ ‫يعرض هذا التقري�ر نتائج التقي�يم السريع لألضرار‬ ‫على النظم البيئية النهرية والساحلية‪ُ .‬‬ ‫ُتقدر االحتياجات‬ ‫واالحتياجات الناجمة عن النزاع الذي شهده لبنان خالل‬ ‫بنحو ‪ 8.4‬مليار دوالر أمريكي في المدي�ين الفوري‬ ‫الفترة ‪ ‬ما بين‪ 2023 ‬و‪ ،2024 ‬والذي أعده البنك الدولي‬ ‫والقصير (الذي يغطي سنوات التعافي الثالث األولى‪،‬‬ ‫بناء على طلب من الحكومة اللبنانية‪ ،‬وبالتعاون مع‬ ‫أي ‪ ،)2025-2027‬وبـ‪ 2.6‬مليار دوالر أمريكي في المدى‬ ‫المجلس الوطني للبحوث العلمية في لبنان‪.)CNRS-L(  ‬‬ ‫المتوسط (‪ .)2028-2030‬وت�تركز أعلى االحتياجات المقدرة‬ ‫يهدف التقي�يم إلى تقدير آثار النزاع من حيث األضرار‬ ‫في قطاع اإلسكان (‪ 6.3‬مليار دوالر أمريكي أو ‪ 57‬بالمائة‬ ‫المادية والخسائر االقتصادية‪ ،‬وتحديد االحتياجات األولية‬ ‫من اإلجمالي)‪ ،‬وفي قطاع التجارة والصناعة والسياحة‬ ‫للتعافي وإعادة اإلعمار على المستويات الفورية‬ ‫(‪ 1.8‬مليار دوالر أمريكي أو ‪ 17‬بالمائة من اإلجمالي)‪ ،‬تليها‬ ‫والقصيرة والمتوسطة المدى‪ .‬يشمل التقي�يم كافة‬ ‫قطاعات البنية التحتية بإجمالي احتياجات قدرها مليار‬ ‫األراضي اللبنانية‪ ،1‬حيث يرصد اآلثار المباشرة وغير‬ ‫دوالر أمريكي (‪ 9‬بالمائة من اإلجمالي)‪ .‬ومن أصل إجمالي‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫المباشرة للنزاع‪ 2‬في عشرة قطاعات أساسية هي‪:‬‬ ‫االحتياجات البالغة ‪ 11‬مليار دوالر أميركي‪ ،‬تشير التقديرات‬ ‫الزراعة واألمن الغذائي؛ التجارة والصناعة والسياحة؛‬ ‫التعليم؛ البيئة وإدارة الردميات؛ الطاقة؛ الصحة؛ اإلسكان؛‬ ‫الخدمات البلدية والعامة؛ النقل؛ والمياه والصرف الصحي‬ ‫والري‪ .‬إلى جانب هذه التقديرات‪ ،‬يستعرض التقري �ر اآلثار‬ ‫االقتصادية الكلية للنزاع وأنماط النزوح السكاني‪ .‬وتغطي‬ ‫بيانات التقي�يم الفترة الممتدة من ‪ 8‬تشري �ن األول‪/‬أكتوبر‬ ‫‪ 2023‬حتى ‪ 20‬كانون األول‪/‬ديسمبر ‪( 2024‬شاملة)‪ ،‬ما لم‬ ‫ُيشر إلى خالف ذلك‪.4‬‬‫ُ‬ ‫ُلص التقري�ر إلى أن األضرار التي لحقت باألصول المادية‬ ‫يخ ُ‬ ‫تبلغ ‪ 6.8‬مليار دوالر أمريكي‪ ،‬وأن النزاع تسبب في خسائر‬ ‫اقتصادية قدرها ‪ 7.2‬مليار دوالر أمريكي‪ ،‬وأن احتياجات‬ ‫التعافي وإعادة اإلعمار تصل إلى ‪ 11‬مليار دوالر أمريكي‪.‬‬ ‫ًا حيث بلغت‬ ‫من حيث األضرار‪ُ ،‬‬ ‫ُيعد قطاع اإلسكان األكثر تضرر ً‬ ‫قيمة األضرار فيه ‪ 4.6‬مليار دوالر أمريكي (أي ‪ 67‬بالمائة‬ ‫من اإلجمالي)‪ ،‬يليه قطاعات البنية التحتية (الطاقة؛‬ ‫الخدمات البلدية والعامة؛ النقل؛ والمياه والصرف الصحي‬ ‫والري) بنسبة مجتمعة تبلغ ‪ 10‬بالمائة من اإلجمالي‪.‬أما‬ ‫فيما يتعلق بالخسائر االقتصادية‪ ،‬التي تم تقديرها لفترة‬ ‫ًا ‪ 5،‬فإن قطاع التجارة والصناعة والسياحة هو‬ ‫‪ 26‬شهر ً‬ ‫ًا ‪ ،‬حيث بلغت الخسائر فيه ‪ 3.4‬مليار دوالر أمريكي‬‫األكثر ت �أثر ً‬ ‫(أو ‪ 48‬بالمائة من اإلجمالي)‪ ،‬مدفوعة بالت �أثير التراكمي‬ ‫للنزاع على النشاط التجاري عبر االقتصاد الوطني وعلى‬ ‫المصدر‪ :‬خريطة تم إنشاؤها لصالح البنك الدولي‪ ،‬إي�بسوس‬ ‫السياحة الوافدة والسفر الداخلي‪ .‬ويست �أثر قطاع البيئة‬ ‫وإدارة الردميات بثاني أعلى نسبة من الخسائر عند ‪11‬‬ ‫‪  1‬يغطي التقي�يم المحافظات اللبنانية التسع (عكار‪ ،‬بعلبك‪-‬الهرمل‪ ،‬بيروت‪ ،‬البقاع‪ ،‬كسروان‪-‬جبيل‪ ،‬جبل لبنان‪ ،‬النبطية‪ ،‬الشمال‪ ،‬والجنوب)‪،‬‬ ‫باست�ثناء قطاع الخدمات البلدية والعامة الذي اقتصر تقي�يم أضراره واحتياجاته على تسعة أقضية نظر ً‬ ‫ًا لمحدودية البيانات‪ ،‬بينما تم تقي�يم‬ ‫الخسائر على المستوى الوطني‪.‬‬ ‫‪  2‬تقتصر اآلثار المباشرة على المناطق المتضررة من النزاع (والتي تضم ‪ 453‬بلدية شهدت حادثة نزاع واحدة على األقل)‪ ،‬في حين تمتد اآلثار‬ ‫غير المباشرة لتشمل البالد بأكملها‪.‬‬ ‫‪  3‬طلبت الحكومة اللبنانية تضمين هذه القطاعات في التقي�يم‪.‬‬ ‫‪  4‬لم يشمل هذا التقي�يم آثار أحداث النزاع التي وقعت بعد هذه الفترة الزمنية‪.‬‬ ‫ًا ‪ ،‬من أكتوبر ‪ 2023‬إلى ديسمبر ‪ )2024‬والسنة األولى من التعافي‪ .‬اختلفت فترة الخسارة لقطاع الزراعة‬ ‫‪  5‬يشمل ذلك فترة النزاع (‪ 14‬شهر ً‬ ‫ًا ‪ ،‬اعتماد ً‬ ‫ًا‬ ‫واألمن الغذائي (انظر ملخصات القطاعات)‪ .‬بالنسبة لبعض القطاعات‪ ،‬من المحتمل أن تستمر الخسائر في التراكم بعد فترة الـ ‪ 26‬شهر ً‬ ‫على سرعة التعافي القطاعي والمعاي�ير الخاصة بكل قطاع‪.‬‬ ‫ةماع ةحمل‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫واالفتراضات الواردة من مصادر أخرى والتحقق منها‪.‬‬ ‫ًا من جهود التعافي سوف تحتاج إلى‬ ‫إلى أن جزء ً‬ ‫ًا كبير ً‬ ‫كما استفاد التقي�يم من البيانات والمدخالت التقنية التي‬ ‫أن يقودها القطاع الخاص‪ ،‬بما في ذلك توفير نحو ‪6-8‬‬ ‫وفرتها عدة وكاالت تابعة لألمم المتحدة على المستوى‬ ‫مليارات دوالر من الموارد المالية‪ ،‬وخاصة في قطاعات‬ ‫القطاعي‪ .‬ولضمان مالءمة التقديرات واالستجابة العاجلة‬ ‫اإلسكان والتجارة والصناعة والسياحة‪ .‬ومن المرجح أن‬ ‫لمتطلبات التخطيط للتعافي‪ ،‬تم إجراء التقي�يم خالل‬ ‫� على صعيد السياسات وبيئة‬ ‫يتطلب هذا دعم ا‬ ‫� عام ا‬ ‫جدول زمني مضغوط مدته شهران‪ .‬وبما أن التقي�يم‬ ‫االست�ثمار وإصالحات القطاع المصرفي‪ ،‬وربما األدوات‬ ‫يغطي ‪ 10‬قطاعات‪ ،‬ولكن ليس جميع قطاعات االقتصاد‪،‬‬ ‫المالية مثل الضمانات التي يمكن أن تساعد في تعبئة‬ ‫فإن نتائجه ال تمثل إجمالي األضرار والخسائر واالحتياجات‬ ‫المبلغ الالزم من رأس المال الخاص‪ .‬وهذا يعكس أيض ً‬ ‫ًا أن‬ ‫على المستوى الوطني‪ .‬وفي ضوء هذه القيود‪ ،‬ينبغي‬ ‫ما ال يقل عن ‪ 3‬إلى ‪ 5‬مليارات دوالر أميركي من التموي �ل‬ ‫أن ت�تضمن جهود التخطيط وتنفيذ التعافي المستقبلية‬ ‫المباشر سوف ت �كون مطلوبة من جانب القطاع العام‪،‬‬ ‫العمل على تحسين بيانات التقي�يم من خالل دمج بيانات‬ ‫بشكل أساسي لالست�ثمارات في قطاعات البنية التحتية‬ ‫ميدانية أكثر شموًالً وإدراج قطاعات إضافية‪.‬‬ ‫والزراعة والبيئة وقطاعات التنمية البشرية (التعليم‬ ‫والصحة)‪.‬‬ ‫ويتضمن التقري�ر أيض �ا تحليًالً محدث �ا لت�أثير النزاع على‬ ‫االقتصاد الكلي‪ .‬ومن المتوقع أن ينكمش الناتج المحلي‬ ‫من الناحية الجغرافية‪ ،‬تعد محافظتا النبطية والجنوب‬ ‫اإلجمالي الحقيقي بنسبة ‪ 7.1‬بالمائة في عام ‪.2024‬‬ ‫ًا ‪ ،‬تليهما محافظة جبل لبنان‪ .‬فقد ت �كبدت‬ ‫األكثر تضرر ً‬ ‫وبالمقارنة مع النسبة المقدرة للنمو في حالة غياب‬ ‫محافظة النبطية أعلى مستوى من األضرار (‪ 3.2‬مليار‬ ‫النزاع والبالغة ‪ 0.9‬بالمائة‪ ،.‬فإن الت �أثير اإلجمالي للنزاع‬ ‫دوالر أمريكي أو ‪ 47‬بالمائة من اإلجمالي)‪ ،‬وأعلى الخسائر‬ ‫يصل إلى ‪ -8‬بالمائة في عام ‪ .2024‬وهذا يفاقم األزمة‬ ‫(ملياري دوالر أمريكي أو ‪ 28‬بالمائة من اإلجمالي)‪،‬‬ ‫االقتصادية القائمة في لبنان‪ :‬فبحلول نهاية عام ‪،2024‬‬ ‫وأعلى االحتياجات (‪ 4.7‬مليار دوالر أمريكي‪ ،‬أو ‪ 43‬بالمائة‬ ‫سيبلغ االنخفاض التراكمي في الناتج المحلي اإلجمالي‬ ‫من اإلجمالي)‪ .‬تليها محافظة الجنوب‪ ،‬التي ت �كبدت ‪23‬‬ ‫للبالد منذ عام ‪ 2019‬ما يقارب ‪ 40‬بالمائة‪.‬‬ ‫بالمائة و‪ 23‬بالمائة و‪ 22‬بالمائة‪ ،‬على التوالي‪ ،‬من‬ ‫إجمالي األضرار والخسائر واالحتياجات‪ .‬كما ت �أثرت محافظة‬ ‫يهدف التقي�يم السريع لألضرار واالحتياجات إلى إرشاد‬ ‫جبل لبنان‪ ،‬التي تضم الضاحية الجنوبية لبيروت‪ ،‬بشكل‬ ‫جهود التعافي وإعادة اإلعمار من خالل توفير تقي�يم‬ ‫كبير وتمثل ‪ 16‬بالمائة من إجمالي االحتياجات‪ .‬وتمثل‬ ‫شفاف يستند إلى األدلة وي�رت�كز على مبادئ ‹إعادة البناء‬ ‫االحتياجات في بعلبك‪-‬الهرمل والبقاع ‪ 7‬و‪ 6‬بالمائة‪ ،‬على‬ ‫بشكل أفضل’‪ .‬يمكن أن يسهم تقي�يم االحتياجات المتعلقة‬ ‫التوالي‪ ،‬من اإلجمالي‪.‬‬ ‫بإعادة بناء األصول واستعادة الخدمات والنشاط التجاري‬ ‫في تحديد أولويات جهود التعافي وإعادة اإلعمار في‬ ‫يستند التقي�يم السريع لألضرار واالحتياجات على التقي�يم‬ ‫المناطق الجغرافية ذات االحتياجات األكبر‪ .‬ويحدد التقي�يم‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫األولي لألضرار والخسائر في لبنان الذي تم نشره مؤخر ً‬ ‫ًا‬ ‫الت �كاليف التي قد يغطيها القطاعان العام والخاصلتغذية‬ ‫ويتبع منهجية تقي�يم االحتياجات ما بعد الكوارث (‪)PDNA‬‬ ‫الحوار بشأن السياسات والقرارات حواللتوزيع المناسب‬ ‫ًا والتي طورت بالشراكة بين االتحاد‬ ‫المعترف بها عالمي ً‬ ‫للمسؤولية عن تموي �ل احتياجات التعافي وإعادة اإلعمار‪.‬‬ ‫األوروبي والبنك الدولي واألمم المتحدة‪ .‬تم تطبيق هذه‬ ‫وتشمل عملية احتساب ت �كلفة االحتياجات ضرورات «إعادة‬ ‫ًا في سياقات ما بعد الكوارث والنزاعات‬ ‫المنهجية عالمي ً‬ ‫البناء بشكل أفضل» بحيث تعكس ت �كاليف إعادة بناء األصول‬ ‫إلرشاد عمليات التخطيط للتعافي وإعادة اإلعمار‪ .‬تعتمد‬ ‫بطريقة أكثر استدامة وخضرة ومرونة لتخفيف المخاطر‬ ‫منهجية هذا التقي�يم على مزي �ج من البيانات الميدانية‬ ‫المستقبلية‪.‬‬ ‫ُبعد‪ ،‬بما في ذلك المسوحات الميدانية‪،‬‬ ‫والبيانات عن ُ‬ ‫والمقابالت مع مصادر المعلومات الرئيسية‪ ،‬والفحوصات‬ ‫يعرض باقي التقري�ر النتائج التفصيلية للتقي�يم‪ .‬ويشمل‬ ‫البصرية العينية‪ ،‬وصور األقمار الصناعية عالية الدقة‬ ‫ذلك تقري �ر الحقائق؛ ونتائج التقي�يم الرئيسية حول األضرار‬ ‫(باالستناد إلى مصادر عامة وغير عامة)‪ ،‬وتحليل الرادار‬ ‫والخسائر واالحتياجات؛ وتقي�يم الت �أثير على االقتصاد‬ ‫ذي الفتحة االصطناعية (العام وغير العام) وتحليالت‬ ‫الكلي؛ وتحليل أنماط النزوح السكاني؛ يليها ملخص‬ ‫وسائل التواصل االجتماعي‪ .‬وقد قدم المجلس الوطني‬ ‫النتائج لكل قطاع ومعلومات عن المنهجية المستخدمة‪.‬‬ ‫للبحوث العلمية في لبنان مساهمات تقنية في إعداد‬ ‫وت�تضمن المالحق مذكرة منهجية مفصلة‪ ،‬وافتراضات‬ ‫ُتخدمت مباشرة في‬ ‫التقري �ر‪ ،‬من خالل توفير بيانات اس ُ‬ ‫ت �كلفة الوحدة‪ ،‬فضًالً عن الخرائط والرسوم التي تدعم‬ ‫التقي�يمات القطاعية‪ ،‬كما ومن خالل مراجعة البيانات‬ ‫التقي�يم‪.‬‬ ‫‪  6‬ركز التقي�يم األولي لألضرار والخسائر في لبنان المنشور مؤخر ً‬ ‫ًا على األضرار المادية والخسائر االقتصادية فقط واقتصر على ‪ 6‬قطاعات‪.‬‬ ‫ويستفيد التقي�يم السريع لألضرار واالحتياجات من بيانات أكثر شموًالً (خاصة البيانات الميدانية)‪ ،‬ويغطي ‪ 10‬قطاعات وفترة زمنية أطول‪ ،‬ويقدم‬ ‫تقديرات لالحتياجات‪ .‬ونتيجة لهذه االختالفات‪ ،‬فإن تقديرات األضرار والخسائر بين التقي�يمين ليست قابلة للمقارنة بشكل كامل‪.‬‬ ‫ةماع ةحمل‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫النتائج الرئيسية‬ ‫الحقائق الرئيسية‬ ‫األضرار‬ ‫‪ 6.8‬مليار دوالر أمريكي‬ ‫الخسائر‬ ‫‪ 7.2‬مليار دوالر أمريكي‬ ‫األهداف‬ ‫احتياجات التعافي وإعادة اإلعمار‬ ‫يقدم التقي�يم السريع لألضرار واالحتياجات تقدير�ا لألضرار‬ ‫‪ 11‬مليار دوالر أمريكي‬ ‫والخسائر واحتياجات التعافي وإعادة اإلعمار الناجمة عن‬ ‫النزاع‪ .‬وعلى وجه التحديد‪ ،‬يهدف إلى‪:‬‬ ‫ •تقديم تحليل شامل ل ت �أثير النزاع من حيث األضرار‬ ‫المادية والخسائر االقتصادية‪.‬‬ ‫مصادر البيانات‬ ‫ •تقديم تقدير أولي الحتياجات التعافي وإعادة اإلعمار‪.‬‬ ‫ •إرشاد صانعي السياسات بشأن أولويات التعافي‪.‬‬ ‫يجمع التقي�يم بين البيانات الميدانية والبيانات المجمعة عن ُ‬ ‫ُبعد‪.‬‬ ‫لكل منها‪ ،‬تم استخدام مصادر متنوعة لتحسين دقة البيانات‪ .‬تم‬ ‫جمع البيانات الميدانية من خالل المسوحات الميدانية‪ ،‬والتقي�يمات‬ ‫الميدانية‪ ،‬والمقابالت مع مصادر المعلومات الرئيسية‪ ،‬باإلضافة‬ ‫إلى المنظمات الحكومية ووكاالت األمم المتحدة؛ بينما تم جمع‬ ‫النطاق‬ ‫ُبعد من خالل صور األقمار الصناعية عالية الدقة من‬ ‫البيانات عن ُ‬ ‫مصادر عامة وغير عامة‪ ،‬والرادار ذي الفتحة االصطناعية‪ ،‬وبيانات‬ ‫الهواتف المحمولة مجهولة المصدر‪ ،‬وتحليالت وسائل التواصل‬ ‫االجتماعي‪ ،‬والبيانات المتاحة للعموم‪ .‬ساعد استخدام ت �كنولوجيا‬ ‫النطاق الجغرافي‬ ‫ُبعد المتطورة في الوصول إلى المناطق التي‬ ‫االستشعار عن ُ‬ ‫يصعب الوصول إليها وتحسين التحقق من مصادر البيانات‬ ‫يغطي التقي�يم البالد بأكملها لتقدير اآلثار المباشرة‬ ‫ًال‬ ‫التقليدية‪ .‬انظر الملحق ‪ 1‬للحصول على معلومات أكثر تفصي ً‬ ‫وغير المباشرة للنزاع‪.‬‬ ‫حول المنهجية المستخدمة‪ .‬نظر�ا للطبيعة السريعة للتقي�يم‪،‬‬ ‫فإن تقديرات التقي�يم أولية وال يمكن اعتبارها بديًالً عن التحليل‬ ‫المتعمق الخاص بكل قطاع‪.‬‬ ‫المحطات الرئيسية‬ ‫النطاق القطاعي‬ ‫يغطي التقي�يم القطاعات العشرة التالية‪ :‬الزراعة‬ ‫إﻋﻼن وﻗﻒ‬ ‫‪ 27‬ﺗﺸﺮﻳﻦ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫واألمن الغذائي؛ التجارة والصناعة والسياحة؛‬ ‫إﻃﻼق اﻟﻨﺎر‬ ‫‪/‬ﻧﻮﻓﻤﺒﺮ ‪2024‬‬ ‫التعليم؛ البيئة وإدارة الردميات؛ الطاقة؛ الصحة؛‬ ‫اإلسكان؛ الخدمات البلدية والعامة؛ النقل؛ والمياه‬ ‫‪ 17‬ﻛﺎﻧﻮن اﻷول‬ ‫ﻃﻠﺐ اﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫والصرف الصحي والري‪ .‬كما يغطي الت �أثير‬ ‫‪/‬دﻳﺴﻤﺒﺮ ‪2024‬‬ ‫اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ اﻟﻠﺒﻨﺎﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫االقتصادي الكلي وأنماط النزوح‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﺎرﻳﺦ اﻧﺘﻬﺎء ﺟﻤﻊ‬ ‫‪ 20‬ﻛﺎﻧﻮن اﻷول‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ‬ ‫‪/‬دﻳﺴﻤﺒﺮ ‪2024‬‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻧﻮن اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪/‬ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ ‪-‬‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ واﻟﺘﻌﺎون‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺘﺼﻒ ﺷﺒﺎط‪/‬ﻓﺒﺮاﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎء‬ ‫النطاق الزمني‬ ‫ﻋﺮض ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ اﻷوﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪ 20‬ﺷﺒﺎط‪/‬ﻓﺒﺮاﻳﺮ‬ ‫تغطي بيانات التقي�يم الفترة الممتدة من ‪ 8‬تشري �ن‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ اﻟﻠﺒﻨﺎﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫األول‪/‬أكتوبر ‪ 2023‬حتى ‪ 20‬كانون األول‪/‬ديسمبر‬ ‫‪( 2024‬شاملة)‪.‬‬ ‫‪ 7‬آذار‪/‬ﻣﺎرس ‪2025‬‬ ‫ﻧﺸﺮ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺮ اﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ اﻟﺴﺮﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﻷﻟﻀﺮار وااﻟﺤﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎت‬ 15 APERÇU GÉNÉRAL Ce rapport présente l’évaluation rapide des plus touché, avec des pertes estimées à 3,4 milliards dommages et des besoins (RDNA) liés à l’impact du de dollars (soit 48 % du total), en raison de l’impact conflit de 20232024 sur le pays. Il a été mené par la cumulé du conflit sur l’activité commerciale dans Banque mondiale à la demande du gouvernement l’ensemble de l’économie nationale et sur le tourisme libanais et en collaboration avec le Conseil national entrant et les voyages nationaux. L’environnement et de la recherche scientifique du Liban (CNRS-L). la gestion des débris représentent la deuxième part Le RDNA estime l’ampleur du conflit en termes de la plus élevée des pertes, soit 11 %, principalement dommages physiques et de pertes économiques1 et en raison de l’impact négatif du conflit sur les identifie les besoins préliminaires pour le relèvement écosystèmes fluviaux et côtiers. Les besoins sont et la reconstruction à très court (immédiat), court, estimés à 8,4  milliards de dollars à très court et et moyen termes.2 Le RDNA couvre l’ensemble du pays3 et examine les impacts directs et indirects du conflit4 dans dix secteurs5 : agriculture et sécurité alimentaire ; commerce, industrie et tourisme ; éducation ; environnement et gestion des débris ; énergie ; santé ; logement ; services municipaux et publics ; transports ; eau, eaux usées et irrigation. Parallèlement à ces estimations, le rapport synthétise les impacts macroéconomiques du conflit ainsi que les dynamiques de déplacements. Sauf indication contraire, les données de l’évaluation couvrent la période allant du 8  octobre  2023 au 20 décembre 2024 inclus. 6 Le rapport estime les coûts des dommages aux biens matériels à 6,8  milliards de dollars et les pertes économiques causées par le conflit à 7,2 milliards de dollars. Les besoins de relèvement et de reconstruction sont évalués à 11  milliards de dollars. En termes de dommages, le secteur du logement est le plus touché, représentant 4,6 milliards de dollars (soit 67 % du total), suivi par les infrastructures (énergie, services municipaux et publics, transport, eau, eaux usées et irrigation) qui cumulent 10  % du total. En termes de pertes économiques, estimées sur une période de 26 mois7, Source: Carte générée pour la Banque mondiale, Ipsos le secteur du commerce, industrie et tourisme est le 1  Les dommages correspondent à la valeur de remplacement, avant le conflit, des biens matériels totalement détruits ou partiellement endommagés. Les pertes correspondent aux modifications des flux économiques résultant de l’interruption ou de la réduction de la production et des services en raison du conflit. 2  Les besoins correspondent au coût de la reconstruction des infrastructures et du rétablissement des services et de l’activité économique au même niveau qu’avant le conflit. Ils couvrent à la fois la reconstruction des infrastructures et le rétablissement des services. Les besoins sont exprimés en prix courants (en tenant compte de l’inflation) et comprennent une prime pour « reconstruire en mieux ». 3  Le RDNA couvre les neuf gouvernorats du Liban (Akkar, Baalbek-Hermel, Beyrouth, Bekaa, Kesrouan-Jbeil, Mont Liban, Nabatieh, Liban-Nord et Liban-Sud), à l’exception du secteur des services municipaux et publics, pour lesquels les dommages et les besoins ont été évalués dans neuf districts en raison de données limitées, tandis que les pertes ont été évaluées à l’échelle nationale. 4  Alors que les impacts directs se limitent aux zones touchées par le conflit (couvrant 453 municipalités qui ont connu au moins un incident du conflit), les impacts indirects s’étendent à l’ensemble du pays. 5  Il s’agit des secteurs que le gouvernement libanais a demandé d’inclure dans ce RDNA. 6  L’impact des événements conflictuels survenus après cette période n’a pas été évalué dans le cadre de ce RDNA. 7  Cela inclut la période du conflit (soit 14 mois, d’octobre 2023 à décembre 2024) et la première année de relèvement. La période de pertes pour l’agriculture et la sécurité alimentaire est différente (voir les résumés sectoriels). Pour certains secteurs, il est probable que les pertes continueront de s’accumuler au-delà de la période de 26 mois, selon la rapidité du relèvement sectoriel et des spécificités de chaque secteur. APERÇU GÉNÉRAL 16 court termes (couvrant les trois premières années entier dans des contextes post-catastrophe et de relèvement, soit 20252027), et à 2,6 milliards de post-conflit, cette méthodologie vise à éclairer la dollars à moyen terme (2028-2030). Les besoins les planification du relèvement et de la reconstruction. plus élevés concernent le secteur du logement à La méthodologie pour cette évaluation repose sur hauteur de 6,3 milliards de dollars (soit 57 % du total) un mélange de données collectées sur le terrain et et celui du commerce, de l’industrie et du tourisme à distance, y compris des enquêtes de terrain, des à hauteur de 1,8  milliard de dollars (soit 17  % du entretiens avec des informateurs clés, des contrôles total), suivis par les secteurs des infrastructures, visuels échantillonnés, des images satellites à dont les besoins combinés s’élèvent à 1  milliard haute résolution (provenant de sources publiques de dollars (soit 9 % du total). Sur les 11 milliards et non publiques), des analyses des données de de dollars nécessaires, on estime qu’une part radar à ouverture synthétique (publiques et non importante de la reprise devra être menée par le publiques) et des analyses des réseaux sociaux. secteur privé, avec notamment la mise à disposition Le CNRS-L a apporté des contributions techniques d’environ 6 à 8 milliards de dollars de ressources au rapport, notamment en fournissant des financières, en particulier dans les secteurs du données qui ont été directement utilisées pour les logement, du commerce, de l’industrie et du évaluations sectorielles et pour la corroboration tourisme. Cela nécessitera probablement un soutien et la validation des données et des hypothèses public en termes de politiques, d’environnement provenant d’autres sources. En outre, l’évaluation d’investissement, de réformes du secteur bancaire a bénéficié de données et de rapports techniques et, éventuellement, d’instruments financiers tels fournis par plusieurs agences des Nations unies que des garanties qui peuvent aider à mobiliser le au niveau sectoriel. Afin de garantir la pertinence volume nécessaire de capitaux privés. Cela reflète des estimations et de répondre à l’urgence de également le fait qu’au moins 3 à 5 milliards de la planification du relèvement, l’évaluation a été dollars de financement direct seront nécessaires réalisée dans un délai réduit de deux mois. Toutefois, du côté du secteur public, principalement pour comme elle se concentre sur 10  secteurs et ne des investissements dans les secteurs des couvre pas l’ensemble de l’économie, ses résultats infrastructures, de l’agriculture, de l’environnement ne reflètent pas l’intégralité des dommages, et du développement humain (éducation, santé). des pertes et des besoins au niveau national. Etant donné ces contraintes, les efforts futurs de Sur le plan géographique, les gouvernorats de planification et de mise en œuvre du relèvement Nabatieh et du LibanSud sont les plus touchés, suivis devront s’appuyer sur une collecte de données plus par le MontLiban. Le gouvernorat de Nabatieh a subi approfondie, et relevés sur le terrain et l’inclusion de les dommages les plus importants (3,2  milliards secteurs supplémentaires pour affiner l’analyse des de dollars, soit 47  % du total), a enregistré les dommages et des besoins. pertes les plus élevées (2 milliards de dollars, soit 28 % du total) et devrait avoir les besoins les plus Le rapport comprend également une analyse importants (4,7  milliards de dollars, soit 43  % du macroéconomique actualisée de l’impact du conflit. total). Vient ensuite le gouvernorat du Liban-Sud, Le produit intérieur brut (PIB) réel devrait désormais qui représente 23 % du total des dommages, 23 % se contracter de 7,1  % en 2024. Comparé à une du total des pertes et 22 % des besoins. Le Mont estimation de croissance de 0,9 % dans un scénario Liban, qui comprend la banlieue sud de Beyrouth, a sans conflit, l’impact total du conflit atteint -8  % également été fortement impacté et représente 16 % cette année-là. Cette détérioration accentue la crise du total des besoins. Enfin, les besoins estimés pour économique préexistante au Liban : d’ici fin 2024, le les gouvernorats de Baalbek-Hermel et de la Bekaa pays aura enregistré un déclin cumulé de près de représentent respectivement 7 et 6 % du total. 40 % de son PIB depuis 2019. Le RDNA s’appuie sur l’évaluation intermédiaire Le RDNA vise à orienter les efforts de relèvement des dommages et des pertes (DaLA)8 récemment et de reconstruction en fournissant une évaluation publiée et suit la méthodologie de l’évaluation des transparente et factuelle, fondée sur les principes besoins post-catastrophe, établie et reconnue à de «  reconstruire en mieux  ». L’évaluation des l’échelle mondiale, et élaborée conjointement par besoins liés à la reconstruction des biens matériels l’Union européenne (UE), la Banque mondiale et ainsi qu’à la restauration des services et de l’activité les Nations unies (ONU). Appliquée dans le monde économique peut permettre de hiérarchiser les 8  L’évaluation intermédiaire des dommages et des pertes (DaLA) récemment publiée portait uniquement sur les dommages matériels et les pertes économiques et se limitait à six secteurs. Le RDNA s’appuie sur des données plus complètes (incluant des données de terrain), couvre dix secteurs et une période plus longue, et fournit des estimations en matière de besoins. En raison de ces différences, les estimations des dommages et des pertes entre les deux évaluations ne sont pas entièrement comparables. APERÇU GÉNÉRAL 17 efforts de relèvement et de reconstruction dans Le rapport détaille ensuite les conclusions de les zones géographiques où les besoins sont les l’évaluation. Il comprend une fiche d’information, plus pressants. L’évaluation identifie les coûts un résumé des principales conclusions sur les pouvant être pris en charge par les secteurs public dommages, les pertes et les besoins, une analyse et privé afin d’éclairer le dialogue politique et les de l’impact macroéconomique et des déplacements, décisions concernant la répartition appropriée des ainsi qu’un aperçu des conclusions pour chaque responsabilités pour le financement des besoins de secteur et des informations sur la méthodologie relèvement et de reconstruction. Le chiffrage des employée. Les annexes comprennent une note besoins inclut une prime « reconstruire en mieux » méthodologique détaillée, des hypothèses de coûts pour refléter les coûts liés à une reconstruction des unitaires, ainsi que des cartes et des données biens plus durable, plus écologique et plus résiliente, chiffrées qui étayent l’évaluation. contribuant ainsi à réduire les risques futurs. APERÇU GÉNÉRAL 18 PRINCIPALES CONCLUSIONS Faits marquants 6.8 DOMMAGES milliards de dollars OBJECTIFS 7.2 PERTES milliards de dollars Le RDNA fournit une estimation des dommages, des pertes et des besoins de relèvement et BESOINS DE RELÈVEMENT de reconstruction résultant du conflit. Plus précisément, elle vise à : 11.0 ET DE RECONSTRUCTION milliards de dollars • Fournir une analyse complète de l’impact du conflit en termes de dommages physiques et de pertes économiques. • Fournir une estimation préliminaire des besoins SOURCES DES DONNÉES de relèvement et de reconstruction. L’étude RDNA combine des données collectées sur le terrain et • Informer les décideurs politiques sur les priorités à distance. Diverses sources ont été utilisées afin d’améliorer en matière de relèvement. la précision des données. Les données collectées sur le terrain ont été fournies par le biais d’enquêtes et d’évaluations sur le terrain, d’entretiens avec des informateurs clés, ainsi que SCOPE des rapports d’organisations gouvernementales et d’agences des Nations unies. Les données à distance ont, elles, été collectées grâce à des images satellites haute résolution provenant de sources publiques et non publiques, à un radar à synthèse d’ouverture (RSO), à des données anonymisées PORTÉE GÉOGRAPHIQUE de téléphones portables, à des analyses des réseaux sociaux et à des données accessibles au public. L’utilisation d’une Le RDNA couvre l’ensemble du pays afin technologie de télédétection de pointe a permis d’atteindre d’estimer les impacts directs et indirects du des zones inaccessibles et d’améliorer la corroboration des conflit. sources de données plus traditionnelles. Voir l’annexe 1 pour plus d’informations sur la méthodologie utilisée. En raison de la nature rapide de l’évaluation, les estimations du RNDA sont préliminaires et ne remplacent pas une analyse sectorielle approfondie. PORTÉE SECTORIELLE L’étude RDNA couvre les 10 secteurs suivants : PRINCIPALES ÉTAPES Agriculture et sécurité alimentaire ; commerce, industrie et tourisme ; éducation ; annonce du 27 novembre 2024 environnement et gestion des débris ; énergie ; cessez-le-feu santé ; logement ; services municipaux et publics ; transport ; eau, eaux usées et irrigation. demande de RDNA du 17 décembre 2024 Il couvre également l’impact macroéconomique gouvernement libanais et les schémas de déplacement. date limite de collecte 20 décembre 2024 des données de RDNA PORTÉE TEMPORELLE Janvier - analyse et collaboration mi-février 2025 avec les partenaires Les données de l’évaluation couvrent la période comprise entre le 8 octobre 2023 et le 20 Présentation des résultats 20 février 2025 décembre 2024 (inclus). préliminaires du RDNA au gouvernement libanais publication du RDNA 7 mars 2025 APERÇU GÉNÉRAL 19 Summary of Assessment Findings DAMAGE Public Services; Transport; and Water, Wastewater and Irrigation) with a combined 10 percent, and The RDNA estimates that total damage caused by the Commerce, Industry and Tourism with 9 percent. conflict amounts to US$6.8 billion. Damage is largely Among the nine governorates assessed, Nabatiyeh concentrated in Housing, which makes up more than and South governorates were most damaged at 47 67 percent of total damage observed, followed by percent and 23 percent of total damage, respectively, the infrastructure sectors (Energy; Municipal and followed by Mount Lebanon at 16 percent. Table 1: Summary of damage per sector Sector Damage (US$, millions) Agriculture Agriculture & Food Security 79 1% & Food Security 0.6% Commerce, Industry Commerce, Industry & Tourism 612 5% 3% 9% 1% & Tourism Education 151 2% Education Energy 98 8% Energy Environment & Debris Management 512 3% Environment & Debris Management Health 208 Health Housing 4,580 Housing Municipal & Public Services 41 Municipal & 67% Public Services Transport 198 Transport Water, Wastewater & Irrigation 356 Water, Wastewater & Irrigation Total 6,834 Note: Tables may not sum to totals due to rounding. Table 2: Geographic distribution of damage Governorate Damage (US$, millions) Akkar  25 0.4% 0.2% Akkar Baalbek-Hermel  403 6% 7% 0.4% Baalbek-Hermel Beirut  11 24% Beirut Bekaa  456 0.2% Bekaa Keserwan-Jbeil  26 16% Keserwan-Jbeil Mount Lebanon (including the Mount Lebanon 1,095 southern suburbs of Beirut) Nabatiyeh Nabatiyeh  3,203 North North  13 47% South South  1,602 Total 6,834 Note: Tables may not sum to totals due to rounding. OVERVIEW 20 LOSSES Environment and Debris Management accounts for the next highest share of losses at 11 percent, Economic losses from the conflict are estimated at primarily driven by the conflict’s negative impact on US$7.2 billion.9 Losses are largely concentrated in the riverine and coastal ecosystems. This is followed Commerce, Industry and Tourism with 48 percent of by the infrastructure sectors (Energy; Municipal and the total loss, driven by the cumulative impact of the Public Services; Transport; and Water, Wastewater conflict on commercial activity across the national and Irrigation), Agriculture and Food Security, and economy and on inbound tourism and national travel. Health, each accounting for 10 percent of total losses. Table 3: Summary of losses per sector Sector Losses (US$, millions) Agriculture & Agriculture & Food Security 742 Food Security Commerce, Industry & Tourism 3,410 2% Commerce, Industry 3% 2% 10% & Tourism Education 414 5% Education Energy 209 10% Energy Environment & Debris Management 790 Environment & Debris Management Health 700 11% Health Housing 363 Housing 3% Municipal & Public Services 192 Municipal & 6% 48% Public Services Transport 173 Transport Water, Wastewater & Irrigation 171 Water, Wastewater & Irrigation Total 7,164 Note: Tables may not sum to totals due to rounding. Table 4: Geographic distribution of losses Governorate Losses (US$, millions) Akkar  151 Akkar Baalbek-Hermel  574 2% 8% 23% Baalbek-Hermel Beirut  481 7% Beirut Bekaa  1,157 Bekaa Keserwan-Jbeil  131 5% 16% Keserwan-Jbeil Mount Lebanon (including the 681 Mount Lebanon southern suburbs of Beirut) 2% Nabatiyeh Nabatiyeh  1,976 9% North 28% North  384 South South  1,630 Total 7,164 Note: Tables may not sum to totals due to rounding. 9  Economic losses are calculated by assessing changes in economic flows due to the conflict. They are calculated for a period of 26 months, including the conflict period (14 months, from October 2023 to December 2024) and the first recovery year. Agriculture and Food Security used a slightly longer loss period, see the respective sector summary and the Methodology Annex for more details. OVERVIEW 21 RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION cover both infrastructure reconstruction (which is NEEDS directly linked to damage) as well as service delivery restoration. Depending on the specificities of each Recovery and reconstruction needs refer to the sector, needs are expected to be financed through a cost of rebuilding assets and restoring services combination of public and private financing. and business activity to the pre-conflict level. Whereas damage and losses describe the impact of Recovery and reconstruction needs are estimated at the conflict, needs are forward-looking and provide US$11 billion, which are spread over the immediate, an overview of the financial resources necessary short, and medium term. Immediate and short term for the recovery and reconstruction from conflict needs for the first three recovery years (2025–27) are or disaster. Needs are valued at current prices estimated at US$8.4 billion, and medium term needs (and thus take into account inflation) and include a (2028–30) amount to US$2.6 billion. At the sectoral “build back better” premium to rebuild assets in a level, the largest needs pertain to Housing with 57 more sustainable, green, and resilient manner. They percent of the total, followed by Commerce, Industry Table 5: Summary of recovery and reconstruction needs per sector Sector Needs (US$, millions) Agriculture & Agriculture & Food Security 412 Food Security 0.7% Commerce, Industry & Tourism 1,849 4% 4% Commerce, Industry 3% & Tourism Education 554 17% Education Energy 147 Energy Environment & Debris Management 444 5% Environment & Debris Management 1% Health 409 Health 4% Housing 6,252 4% Housing Municipal & Public Services 76 57% Municipal & Public Services Transport 302 Transport Water, Wastewater & Irrigation 508 Water, Wastewater & Irrigation Total 10,951 Note: Tables may not sum to totals due to rounding. Table 6: Geographic distribution of recovery and reconstruction needs Governorate Needs (US$, millions) Akkar  126 Akkar Baalbek-Hermel  727 1% 7% 2% Baalbek-Hermel 22% 6% Beirut  201 1% Beirut Bekaa  619 Bekaa Keserwan-Jbeil  94 2% 16% Keserwan-Jbeil Mount Lebanon (including the 1,776 Mount Lebanon southern suburbs of Beirut) Nabatiyeh Nabatiyeh  4,741 North North  209 43% South South  2,458 Total 10,951 Note: Tables may not sum to totals due to rounding. OVERVIEW 22 and Tourism at 17 percent. The infrastructure policy, investment environment, banking sector sectors have a combined US$1.0 billion of needs, reforms, and potentially financial instruments such representing 9 percent of the total. Debris removal, as guarantees that can help leverage the necessary transportation, recycling and disposal, a pre- amount of private capital. This also reflects that requisite for sectoral recovery interventions, is at least US$3-5 billion in direct financing will be estimated at US$105 million. Out of the US$11 billion required from the public sector side, primarily in total needs, it is estimated that a significant portion for investments in the infrastructure sectors, of the recovery will need to be driven by the private agriculture, environment and human development sector, including the provision of around $6-8 billion sectors (education, health). Geographically, the in financial resources, in particular in the Housing needs are concentrated in Nabatiyeh (43 percent of and the Commerce, Industry and Tourism sectors. the total), followed by South governorate (22 percent This will likely require public support in terms of of the total) and Mount Lebanon (16 percent of the Table 7: Summary of estimated recovery and reconstruction needs in the immediate, short, and medium term Needs (US$, millions) Immediate Term Short Term Medium Term Sector (2025) (2026–27) (2028–30) Total Agriculture & Food Security 312 88 11 412 Commerce, Industry & Tourism 885 817 147 1,849 Education 311 170 72 554 Energy 66 79 2 147 Environment & Debris Management 191 150 103 444 Health 123 204 82 409 Housing 1,747 2,549 1,957 6,252 Municipal & Public Services 29 32 15 76 Transport 76 151 75 302 Water, Wastewater & Irrigation 144 264 100 508 Total 3,883 4,504 2,564 10,951 Total Needs (US$, million) Agriculture & Food Security Commerce, Industry & Tourism Education Energy Environment & Debris Management Health Housing Municipal & Public Services Transport Water, Wastewater & Irrigation 400 800 0 1,200 1,600 2,000 2,400 2,800 3,200 3,600 4,000 4,400 4,800 5,200 5,600 6,000 6,400 Immediate Term (2025) Short Term (2026-27) Medium Term (2028-30) Note: Tables may not sum to totals due to rounding. OVERVIEW 23 Table 8: Summary of damage, losses, and needs by sector Total (US$, millions) Sector Damage Losses Needs Agriculture & Food Security 79 742 412 Commerce, Industry & Tourism 612 3,410 1,849 Education 151 414 554 Energy 98 209 147 Environment & Debris Management 512 790 444 Health 208 700 409 Housing 4,580 363 6,252 Municipal & Public Services 41 192 76 Transport 198 173 302 Water, Wastewater & Irrigation 356 171 508 Total 6,834 7,164 10,951 Note: Tables may not sum to totals due to rounding. total). The needs can be divided into two categories: By the end of 2024, Lebanon’s cumulative GDP infrastructure reconstruction and rehabilitation of decline since 2019 approached 40 percent, assets, estimated at US$8.8 billion; and restoration worsening its pre-existing economic crisis. The of service delivery and access to goods, estimated conflict further compounds an ongoing prolonged at US$2.1 billion. downturn, exacerbated by sovereign default, sharpy currency depreciation, a systemic banking crisis, MACROECONOMIC IMPACT limited capital investment, and deteriorating public services. The destruction of capital stock and skilled Updated World Bank estimates indicate that the labor migration further erodes Lebanon’s economic conflict reduced real gross domestic product potential, posing significant risks to long term (GDP) growth for 2024 by 8 percentage points, up growth.12 from an earlier projection of 6.6 percentage points in November 2024.10 Using mixed data sampling DISPLACEMENT (MIDAS) methods, refined via predictor selection methods,11 and updated high-frequency economic Over the past year, the conflict in Lebanon has led data, the latest analysis confirms a deeper impact. to a significant displacement crisis. The number Real GDP is now expected to contract by 7.1 percent of internally displaced persons (IDPs) peaked in in 2024. Compared to a no-conflict growth estimate November 2024, reaching approximately 900,000, of 0.9 percent, the conflict’s total impact reaches -8 or approximately 20 percent of the country’s percent in 2024. population.13 The vast majority of IDPs originated from the districts of Bent Jbeil, Tyre, Nabatiyeh, 10  A prior analysis in November 2024 projected a 5.7 percent contraction, based on shocks to consumption and net exports— the primary transmission channels of the conflict’s effects. In a counterfactual no-conflict scenario, real GDP growth would have been 0.9 percent, implying an earlier estimated total conflict impact of -6.6 percent. See: World Bank. November 2024. Lebanon Interim Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLA): Assessment Report. Washington, DC: World Bank Group; and World Bank. 2024. Lebanon Economic Monitor: Mounting Burdens on a Crisis-Ridden Country. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. 11  For further details on the MIDAS methods, refer to: World Bank. 2021. Lebanon Economic Monitor : Lebanon Sinking (To the Top 3). Washington, DC: World Bank Group; and World Bank. 2023. Lebanon Economic Monitor: The Normalization of Crisis is No Road for Stabilization. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. 12  World Bank. 2024. Lebanon Economic Monitor: Mounting Burdens on a Crisis-Ridden Country. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. 13  International Organization for Migration. November 2024. DTM Mobility Snapshot, Round 65. IOM, Lebanon. OVERVIEW 24 Marjaayoun, and Baabda. They were mostly hosted livelihoods.18 Some were unable to afford necessities by the districts of Saida, Nabatiyeh, Tyre, Aley, and such as food, clothing, and shelter. The high cost of Metn. The Beirut municipality and surrounding living in safer areas forces families to make difficult suburbs experienced a substantial degree of choices, often prioritizing immediate survival over population shift when the ceasefire went into effect long-term health and education. The vulnerability of on November 27, 2024. Prior to that, Beirut hosted a IDPs, regardless of their current housing situations, cumulative total of approximately 450,000 displaced is at risk of being heightened if delays occur in individuals, who were primarily located in Zoukak reconstruction and recovery efforts, which are El-Blatt, Achrafieh, and Bachoura.14 While most of essential for rebuilding critical civilian infrastructure these individuals originated from outside of the and restoring livelihoods. Persons injured by the Greater Beirut area, this total also included 73,000 conflict, women, children, the elderly, persons with individuals from the nearby southern suburbs15 (see disabilities, refugees, and migrant workers are more details on displacement patterns in Figure C3 particularly vulnerable. in Annex C). Even prior to the escalation of the conflict, The protracted conflict has inflicted extensive the economic crisis had already triggered damage on civilian infrastructure, including roads, unprecedented levels of poverty and food insecurity homes, schools, and health facilities, thereby in the country.19 Nearly one-third of Lebanon’s exacerbating the challenges faced by displaced population is reportedly facing acute food insecurity populations in their efforts to return. Many villages following the escalation of conflict in late 2024.20 The near the southern border remain uninhabited due to healthcare system, already weakened by years of ongoing insecurity and access limitations, further economic strain, is unable to meet the needs of the complicating the return process for IDPs.16 More displaced, leaving many without access to necessary than 95 percent of those IDPs who have initiated medical care. The psychological impact on displaced their return to their areas of origin are currently individuals is significant and the need for mental residing in rental housing or host settings.17 Many health and psychosocial support constitutes an families report having sold assets to cope with essential part of recovery for Lebanon. prolonged displacement and disruptions to their 14  Data collected for the Lebanon RDNA. 15  Ibid. 16  According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), many villages near the southern border remain deserted due to ongoing insecurity and impediments to access. Confirmed by Ipsos maps for the Lebanon RDNA. 17  Around 31 percent of IDPs are currently living in host settings, while 65 percent have opted for rental housing around 2 percent are housed in 33 collective sites. Another 2% have relocated to their secondary residences. Meanwhile, less than 1 percent are categorized under “other”, this includes unfinished buildings, tents, parks, on the streets, or self-settled sites”. International Organization for Migration (IOM), February 2025. DTM Mobility Snapshot, round 75, IOM, Lebanon, p.7. 18  Data of phone surveys conducted for this RDNA. 19  World Bank. May 2024. Lebanon Poverty and Equity Assessment 2024: Weathering a Protracted Crisis. Washington, DC: World Bank. 20  IPC. January 17, 2025. “Lebanon: Lebanon’s Food Security Expected to Deteriorate Following the Escalation of the Conflict.” Acute Food Insecurity Analysis October 2024 – March 2025. OVERVIEW 25 SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 26 Agriculture & Food Security Damage Losses Recovery & Reconstruction Needs US$79 million US$742 million US$412 million Pre-conflict situation: Prior to the conflict, agriculture food security,26 facilities and equipment,27 on-farm was crucial for Lebanon’s food security. As of 2020, irrigation,28 and fishery assets. agriculture constituted 9 percent of Lebanon’s GDP and 4 percent of employment, while the food For Agriculture and Food Security, the conflict processing industry added another 4 percent.21 has caused damage estimated at US$79 million. South governorate alone was responsible for 64 The conflict has severely impacted infrastructure, percent of the country’s citrus trees,22 94 percent of crop production, livestock, fisheries, and irrigation banana plantations, 15 percent of olive trees, and 44 systems, deteriorating livelihoods and hindering percent of tropical fruit trees, including 63 percent subsequent recovery. Major direct damage to of avocado trees.23 Bekaa produced 70 percent of irrigated crops amounts to US$34 million and includes Lebanon’s grapes, 30 percent of which were used for substantial uprooting of key crops such as olives and winemaking.24 40 percent of agricultural activities avocado; damage to irrigation systems amounts to were livestock related and almost 60 percent of US$16 million and livestock damage to US$11 million, livestock farmers in Lebanon depended on dairy including around 3 million chickens killed and nearly as their main source of income.25 This sector 10,000 square meters (m²) of poultry farms damaged. played a crucial role in sustaining rural livelihoods, Along the coast, many fishing activities have stopped, providing economic stability, and significantly with damage to 472 docked fishing boats29 and to 13 benefiting women by enhancing their participation aquaculture ponds amounting to US$1.2 million in in agricultural value chains. However, the sector damage. In spatial terms, Nabatiyeh governorate had already been weakened by the 2019 economic incurred the most damage with US$42 million, crisis, which limited access to finance, exacerbated followed by South governorate with US$24 million, by poor value chain integration and inefficient public and Bekaa governorate with US$8 million. institutions. Small and medium enterprises and cooperatives were heavily reliant on international aid The conflict has caused losses to Agriculture and and non-governmental organization (NGO) support. Food Security estimated at US$742 million.30 These Environmental and social (E&S) vulnerabilities were primarily reflect lost revenues from agricultural high, with 67 percent of agricultural households in the products that could not be sold due to reduced or Bekaa and South governorates in poverty—worsened damaged production. This includes an estimated by climate change and environmental degradation. US$693 million in lost revenue from crop production, The assessment covers crop production, livestock, US$25 million from livestock, and US$24 million from 21  Food and Agriculture Organization. 2024: “Lebanon at a Glance.” https://www.fao.org/lebanon/our-office/lebanon-at-a-glance/ en#:~:text=Agriculture percent20plays percent20an percent20important percent20role,to percent2013 percent20percent percent20in percent202020. 22  Jalkh, Jeanine. March 26, 2024. “Lebanon’s Economy, Another Victim of the War.” L’Orient Today. https://today.lorientlejour.com/ article/1408350/lebanons-economy-another-victim-of-hezbollah-israel-war.html. 23  Ministry of Agriculture. ‫ وزارة الزراعة‬- 2010 ‫اإلحصاء الزراعي الشامل لعام‬. (Agriculture Census 2010 Main Results). http://www. Agriculture.gov.lb/Statistics-and-Studies/Comprehensive-Agricultural-Statistics/statistics-2010. 24  Ibid. 25  Abdallah, Chadi, Rita Der Sarkissian, Samah Termos, Talal Darwish, and Ghaleb Faour. 2018. Agricultural Risk Assessment for Lebanon to Facilitate Contingency & DRR/CCA Planning by the Ministry of Agriculture. Beirut, CNRS-L and FAO. 26  Including 8 wholesale markets, 627 bakeries and production lines. 27  Including government buildings, agriculture vocational schools and research stations, and agricultural machinery. 28  Focusing on on-farm irrigation systems with a total of 100,902.62 hectares, including sprinklers, drip, and on-farm canals. The assessment of the impact of the conflict on larger irrigation systems is covered under the Water section of this report. 29  This figure accounts for both boats destroyed by direct shelling and those damaged from prolonged idling during the conflict. Of the total, 12 boats were completely destroyed by shelling, while 460 others suffered significant damage due to rust, saltwater, and sun exposure due to halted fishing. The replacement cost for the destroyed boats is equivalent to that of a brand-new 8-meter boat with an engine, while repairs for the partially damaged ones are costed at 10 percent of their original value. 30  Losses in the Agriculture sector were calculated over a period corresponding to specific average recovery periods needed for crops (one and a half to three years), livestock (two years), and fisheries (one year). SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 27 fisheries. The losses were driven by inaccessible for-work programs, to aid recovery and restore farmland, continued uprooting of trees, and halted livelihoods. Immediate term needs for Agriculture harvests in conflict-affected areas, all of which amount to US$65 million covering agriculture labor exacerbated the sector’s vulnerabilities and delayed needs, supplemental animal feed, and initiation of recovery. The highest losses are recorded in South on-farm irrigation repairs. Short term needs total governorate with US$286 million, followed by Bekaa US$88 million and should prioritize the rehabilitation with US$212 million, and Nabatiyeh with US$199 of key assets such as agricultural plots (mainly for million (see the geographic distribution of losses in potatoes and vegetable value chains), greenhouses, Figure C1 in Annex C). olive groves, and livestock, with investments in infrastructure such as olive presses and fishing The recovery and reconstruction needs for boats. Medium term recovery needs in Agriculture Agriculture and Food Security are estimated at amount to US$11 million, including rebuilding US$412 million. For the Agriculture sector, needs damaged cross-cutting infrastructure, on-farm are estimated at US$165 million. This includes needs irrigation systems, and destroyed poultry farms. For for infrastructure reconstruction and rehabilitation Food Security, emergency food security assistance of assets that are estimated at US$29 million and needs resulting from the conflict are a priority to encompass mostly the repair of on-farm irrigation address, estimated to require US$247 million31 in systems, aquaculture ponds, fishing boats, and the immediate term to benefit around 550,00032 crops processing equipment. It also covers the total individuals who became food insecure (classified investment needs for service restoration and access by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification to goods amounting to US$136 million, including (IPC) as Phase 3 (crisis) and IPC Phase 4 (emergency US$19 million for livestock recovery, US$59 million conditions33) during the conflict. Additionally, there for crop recovery, and US$57 million to support are 1.1 million people across Lebanon who already agricultural labor recovery, which refers to the experienced IPC Level 3 or higher food insecurity compensation for labor lost due to the conflict and prior to the conflict, whose food security needs are typically involves cash-based support, such as cash- not included in this assessment.34 31  Food security needs were obtained by multiplying the number of people vulnerable to food security (IPC level 3 and higher) with the price of the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB) as set by the WFP at US$ 37.4 per month (US$ 448.8 per year). 32  This number was calculated by subtracting the estimated number of people at IPC Level 3 or higher between October 2023 – March 2024 from the projected figures for January 2025 – March 2025. The IPC assesses the number of people at IPC Level 3 or higher on a trimestral to bi-annual basis. The period from May 2023 – October 2023 was marked by heightened instability due to the lira crisis, reduced access to bread, and the lifting of subsidies. As a result, the October 2023 – March 2024 period is considered a more reliable baseline for understanding the food security situation before further shifts in displacement patterns and socio- economic conditions caused by the conflict. The projected figure for the first quarter of 2025 was used to estimate immediate needs as accurately as possible. 33  IPC Phase 3 (Crisis): Households face food consumption gaps or must adopt crisis-level coping strategies, leading to high malnutrition. Urgent action is needed. IPC Phase 4 (Emergency): Households experience severe food shortages, high malnutrition, and excess mortality. Immediate intervention is required. (Source: IPC, www.ipcinfo.org ). 34  IPC. “Lebanon: Acute Food Insecurity Situation for October 2023 - March 2024 and Projection for April 2024 - September 2024 | IPC - Integrated Food Security Phase Classification.” Ipcinfo.org, 2023, www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/ c/1156728/?iso3=LBN. SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 28 Table 9: Damage, losses, and needs for the Agriculture & Food Security sector Partially Completely Total Cost Asset Types Damaged Destroyed (US$, millions) DAMAGE Government buildings and vocational schools (unit) 7 - 0.3 On-farm irrigation systems (sprinklers, drip, on-farm canals) (ha) 4,442 843 16 Crops (ha) 14,444 2,193 34 Harvesting and processing equipment (unit) - 37 3.4 Greenhouses and plan nursery (ha) 100 70 10 Cattle, sheep, and goats (head) - 2,652 1.2 Poultry (head) 2,750,000 9.6 Bee hives (unit) - 5,000 0.8 Poultry farm (m2) - 9,784 2.9 Fishing boats (unit) 460 12 0.9 Aquaculture ponds (unit) - 13 0.3 Total Damage 79 LOSSES Reduced crop production and revenues 693 Reduced livestock production and revenues 25 Reduced fish production and revenues 24 Total Losses 742 Immediate Term Short Term Medium Term Needs Intervention/Activity (2025) (2026–27) (2028–30) Total NEEDS Agriculture Needs Infrastructure Government buildings and vocational - - 0.2 0.2 Reconstruction & schools Rehabilitation of On-farm irrigation 7 7 7 21 Assets Harvesting and processing equipment - 5 - 4.6 Apiary infrastructure - 1.1 - 1.1 Fishing boats and aquaculture ponds - 2 - 2 Subtotal 7 15 7 29 Restoration of Crops - 59 - 59 Service Delivery & Livestock 1 15 4 19 Access to Goods Animal Feed 0.7 - - 0.7 Agriculture labor 57 - - 57 Subtotal 58 74 4 136 Total Agriculture Needs 65 88 11 165 Food Security Needs Restoration of Food Security Needs 247 - - 247 Service Delivery & Subtotal 247 - - 247 Access to Goods Total Needs 312 88 11 412 SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 29 Commerce, Industry & Tourism Damage Losses Recovery & Reconstruction Needs US$612 million US$3.4 billion US$1.8 billion Pre-conflict situation: The Commerce, Industry damaged. In tourism, 2,219 establishments have and Tourism Sector comprises two key categories: been impacted, of which 3 percent are destroyed and Commerce and Industry, which covers essential 10 percent partially damaged. In spatial terms, the sectors such as wholesale/retail, industry, and conflict affected Marjaayoun district the most with professional services; and Tourism. Prior to the US$121 million of damage, followed by Nabatiyeh conflict, the Commerce, Industry and Tourism district with US$101 million, and Tyre with US$88 sector accounted for 40 percent of Lebanon’s GDP35 million (see Figure C2 in Annex C for more details). and included around 215,000 formal and informal establishments.36 Since 2019, the sector had been The conflict has caused losses estimated at US$3.4 gradually recovering from multiple challenges, albeit billion in the Commerce, Industry and Tourism at a slow pace. Access to finance continued to be a sector, out of which US$1.3 billion (38 percent) significant challenge, crippling business operations. were recorded in tourism. Losses to Commerce Lebanon remained a net importing country despite and Industry, totaling US$2.1 billion, were driven by small-scale growth in agribusiness, chemicals, business closures due to damaged establishments and medicinal production. Tourism establishments, or the displacement of employees and business which include hospitality (restaurants, cafes, bars, owners from conflict-affected areas, changes in hotels, short term accommodation, and other consumption behavior in non-conflict zones with tourism-related services), have historically been a concentration on necessary rather than luxury a source of employment and key drivers of the goods, and disruptions to supply chains. These Lebanese economy, especially when including losses include US$990 million for wholesale/retail, foreign expatriate and Lebanese diaspora spending. US$829 million for manufacturing, and US$254 Tourist arrivals (excluding expatriates) witnessed million for services. Tourism losses are estimated a year-on-year increase of 56.6 percent in 2022. at US$1.3 billion, reflecting the nationwide scope Despite the 24 percent drop in incoming visitors in of the conflict’s impact on the sector. An estimated Q4 2023 in comparison with Q4 2022, the sector still 45 percent of tourism losses accrued in conflict- accounted for around 8.6 percent of GDP in 2023. affected areas, while 55 percent occurred in the rest Prior to the conflict, employment in the Tourism of Lebanon, reflecting the higher concentration of sector was estimated to be around 4.4 percent tourism activity in areas not directly impacted by the of total employment37 and accounted for up to 20 conflict. Losses in tourism encompass a decline in percent of the sector’s total input costs. economic activity, including reduced rental income, lower demand for consumable goods, diminished For Commerce, Industry and Tourism, the conflict business profits, and wage losses for workers in has caused damage estimated at US$612 million, the sector. These losses are driven by the drastic out of which 27 percent occurred in Tourism. In drop in tourist arrivals and hotel occupancy due to the sector as a whole, it is estimated that at least travel restrictions, supply chain disruptions, reduced 2,099 establishments were destroyed and 7,094 consumer spending, and safety concerns. At the were partially damaged, impacting 11 percent of the district level, total losses for the entire sector were assessed baseline.38 Within Commerce and Industry, highest in Nabatiyeh with US$454 million, followed there have been 6,974 impacted establishments, of by Beirut with US$423 million, and Tyre with US$410 which 2 percent are destroyed and 8 percent partially million. 35  At current prices, Central Administration of Statistics (CAS) Lebanon National Accounts 2004–2021. Sub-sectors included: food and beverage, light manufacturing, heavy manufacturing, repair (vehicles), wholesale and retail trade, services. 36  Informal establishments are estimated to be 2.5 times the number of formal establishments. 37  Central Administration of Statistics. 2020. “Labor Force Survey 2018–2019. Lebanon.” 38  Baseline extrapolation accounted for the inclusion and representation of formal and informal establishments. SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 30 The recovery and reconstruction needs for will need some liquidity support.39 In the immediate Commerce, Industry and Tourism are estimated term, sector recovery needs are estimated at US$885 at US$1.8 billion, out of which 34 percent pertain million and focus on repair of partially damaged to Tourism. The estimated needs reflect the total establishments and destroyed establishments, requirements for the sector’s recovery, independent with the provision of working capital to companies of the eventual financing sources, which may that have sustained income losses. In the short include contributions from both the public and and medium term, needs are estimated at US$817 private sectors. The total investment needs for million and US$147 million, respectively, entailing infrastructure reconstruction are estimated to repair of remaining damaged assets and destroyed be US$796 million, which include US$532 million establishments, with continued provision of working for repairing partially damaged establishments capital. Technical assistance (TA) will also be crucial and US$264 million for reconstructing completely to help the private sector recover, rebuild and adapt destroyed establishments—of which 27 percent to new challenges in an efficient manner; and to would be for Tourism establishments. Needs for enhance the capacity of public institutions regulating service delivery restoration are estimated to be the private sector and foster a more conducive US$1,023 million, of which 34 percent are needs business environment.40 TA needs are estimated at for the Tourism sector. Service delivery restoration US$30 million, with half allocated for the immediate needs entail working capital provision to facilitate term. Public sector support is likely to be needed repurchasing of inventory supplies, to cover to provide immediate and short term relief to the immediate and short term operational costs, wage most vulnerable micro and small businesses. Over compensation for workers, and rental fees for time, as the situation stabilizes and the financial temporary operational spaces. Support for such sector resumes functioning with restored credit working capital needs would be most critical for intermediation, the private sector will need to take micro, small, and medium establishments, which on a larger role in supporting longer-term recovery are most vulnerable and likely unable to recover by and growth. It is estimated that at least 25 percent of themselves. It is assumed that around 35 percent of the needs would be publicly financed. impacted businesses in the conflict-affected areas 39  It is estimated that 30 percent of total economic losses will need to be allocated to support micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in the form of liquidity support. In other words, around 35 percent of the approximately 85,415 businesses in conflict- affected areas are expected to require external financing of approximately USD $35,000 each to resume their operations. 40  The TA to the private sector can cover a range of areas, addressing immediate needs while also building resilience for the future. It can provide expertise in restoring business operations, financial recovery strategies, supply chain restoration, while adopting a building back better strategy. The TA to the public sector will support public institutions in improving the business environment: simplifying and streamlining regulatory procedures, strengthening governance and oversight systems, and optimizing the effectiveness of policies and regulations. It will also support the development of sector-specific strategies in the commerce and tourism sectors that stimulate their growth. SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 31 Table 10: Damage, losses, and needs for the Commerce, Industry & Tourism sector Partially Damaged Completely Destroyed Total Cost Asset Types (establishments) (establishments) (US$, millions) DAMAGE Commerce & Industry 5,363 1,611 567 Manufacturing 785 288 93 Retail, wholesale, and trade 3,491 989 261 Professional services 1,086 334 93 Tourism (including hospitality) 1,732 488 165 Total Damage 612 LOSSES Output and wage losses from Commerce & Industry 2,072 Manufacturing 829 Wholesale, retail, and trade 990 Professional services 254 Output and wage losses from Tourism (including hospitality) 1,338 Total Losses 3,410 Immediate Term Short Term Medium Term Needs Intervention/Activity (2025) (2026–27) (2028–30) Total NEEDS Infrastructure Repair partially damaged 266 239 27 532 Reconstruction establishments & Rehabilitation of Assets Reconstruct completely destroyed 92 158 13 264 establishments Subtotal 358 398 40 796 Restoration of Working capital support for companies 512 409 102 1,023 Service Delivery that have sustained income losses & Access to Goods TA 15 10 5 30 Subtotal 527 419 107 1,053 Total Needs 885 817 147 1,849 Commerce & Industry % 66 66 65 66 Tourism % 34 34 35 34 SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 32 Education Damage Losses Recovery & Reconstruction Needs US$151 million US$414 million US$554 million Pre-conflict situation: The Lebanese education followed by South governorate with US$39 million, system faced severe challenges even before and Mount Lebanon with US$21 million. the current conflict, including a decline in the qualified teaching force, outdated curriculum, The conflict caused losses estimated at US$414 and inefficient processes. The 2018 Program for million for the Education sector. These losses International Student Assessment (PISA) results included US$378 million in foregone income from ranked Lebanon among the lowest, with over two- fees due to private school closures and US$36 thirds of students not achieving basic literacy,41 and million in additional costs incurred for operating Trends in Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) hub schools. The governorates with highest losses results showed a decline in science scores from are Mount Lebanon with US$116 million, South with 2007 to 2019.42 Public school students experienced US$64 million, and Bekaa with US$55 million (see significant learning losses due to disrupted academic Figure C4 in Annex C for more details). The impact years from 2019–23, receiving only 270 days of in- of the conflict is deepening educational inequalities person teaching instead of the expected 600 days, in Lebanon, with private schools resuming sooner leading to long term economic impacts.43 Lebanon while public schools face delays. This will further has 3,334 educational institutions, 43 percent public disadvantage vulnerable children and likely and 57 percent private, serving about 1.2 million increase dropout rates. Additionally, disruptions to students (with 38 percent enrolled in public schools). education will have a longer-term impact on human These institutions include public schools, public development and the economy due to lost future universities, private schools, private universities, earnings, the analysis of which goes beyond the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) scope of this assessment.44 for Palestine Refugees in the Near East centers, shelters, technical and vocational education and The recovery and reconstruction needs for training (TVET) centers, and private colleges. Education are estimated at US$554 million. The total investment needs for infrastructure reconstruction For Education, the conflict has caused damage are estimated to be US$226 million and for service estimated at US$151 million. A total of 59 education delivery restoration a further US$327 million. Within facilities were destroyed and 299 were partially infrastructure reconstruction, the reconstruction damaged, impacting 40 percent of the assessed of fully destroyed schools requires US$74 million, baseline. Most damage was recorded on private while rehabilitation of partially damaged schools schools, with 34 schools completely destroyed and necessitates US$153 million. Restoration of service 173 partially damaged. Spatially, the conflict affected delivery includes US$118 million for catch-up Nabatiyeh governorate the most with US$81 million, programs for public schools,45 US$53 million for 41  World Bank Group. 2018. “Lebanon PISA 2018.” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/435071580399593024-0280022020/ LEBANON-PISA-Brief-2018. 42  Gajderowicz, Tomasz Janusz and Jan Maciej Jakubowski. 2023. Lessons from TIMSS 2019 to Improve Education in Lebanon. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099052423032013756/ P1758141dbe28a4d16482140a218488143ec88da5ec3. 43  Kheyfets, Igor, and Adelle Pushparatnam. 2023. Another Lost Year: Estimating the Educational and Economic Costs of Lebanon’s Public-School Closures in 2022-23. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents- reports/documentdetail/099092623073542135/p1758140ac57150b0aeb70e40d19f082b5. 44  Initial analysis based on approaches developed over recent years in Lebanon indicates a further potential long-term impact on the economy as a result of lost earnings accruing at an estimated net present value of at least US$3.3 million per day. Based on this analysis, total reductions of future earnings could exceed US$496 million. See for example: Kheyfets, Igor, and Adelle Pushparatnam. 2023. Another Lost Year: Estimating the Educational and Economic Costs of Lebanon’s Public-School Closures in 2022-23. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099092623073542135/ p1758140ac57150b0aeb70e40d19f082b5. 45  Cost of catch-up programs were derived from a pilot program implemented in Lebanon. For 2025, it is assumed that 7 hours of catch-up instructions are needed per week, for the duration of the academic year (28 weeks). For 2026-2027, it is assumed that 25 percent of children would need additional catch-up instruction per year, considering the magnitude of learning losses observed in the sector. Source: World Bank. 2025. Pilot of a Teaching at the Right Level (TaRL) Based Approach in Lebanon. Washington DC. © World Bank.https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099012925041565266/pdf/P175814119c54b0321833715c5b56c4a628.pdf. SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 33 revised teaching and learning materials for students for public and private students. In the short and and teachers, US$70 million for psychosocial support medium term, needs are estimated at US$170 for students in public schools and US$75 million for million and US$72 million, respectively, and focus the same in private schools, US$5 million for training on continued reconstruction of damaged schools for public school teachers, US$7 million psychosocial and rehabilitation of partially damaged schools, support for teachers, and US$4.8 million for revised with the incorporation of measures for building teaching and learning materials for teachers. In the back better, as well as the continued provision of immediate term, recovery needs are estimated at catch-up programs. It is important to note that US$312 million to cover the rehabilitation of partially catch-up programs and remedial education have damaged schools, reconstruction of completely not been included in the needs estimate beyond the damaged schools, the provision of catch-up immediate and short term, but such support may be programs, revised teaching and learning materials also needed in the medium term given the significant for teachers and students, and psychosocial support learning losses observed. Table 11: Damage, losses, and needs for the Education sector Partially Damaged Completely Destroyed Total Cost Asset Types (unit) (unit) (US$, millions) DAMAGE Public schools 120 25 51 Private schools 173 34 96 Universities and TVET Centers 6 - 3.8 Total Damage 151 LOSSES Additional costs incurred for operating hub schools throughout the territory 36 Foregone income from fees due to private school closures 378 Total Losses 414 Immediate Term Short Term Medium Term Needs Intervention/Activity (2025) (2026–27) (2028–30) Total NEEDS Infrastructure Reconstruction of completely destroyed 37 22 15 74 Reconstruction & schools Rehabilitation of Assets Rehabilitation of partially damaged 76 46 31 153 schools Subtotal 113 68 45 226 Restoration of Catch-up programs 78 39 - 118 Service Delivery & Access to Goods Revised teaching and learning materials 44 8.8 - 53 Psychosocial support 74 52 26 152 Teacher training (public) 2 2 1 5 Subtotal 198 102 27 327 Total Needs 312 170 72 554 SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 34 Energy Damage Losses Recovery & Reconstruction Needs US$98 million US$209 million US$147 million Pre-conflict context: Lebanon’s electricity sector supply by primarily affecting transformers and was already facing severe challenges before the medium voltage (MV) and high voltage (HV) recent conflict, characterized by a significant supply- equipment. At the distribution level, damage was demand gap and chronic power outages that forced more widespread and severe, amounting to US$74 many Lebanese households and businesses to rely million. Key infrastructure damage primarily on expensive diesel generators to meet their energy affected MV substations and MV/ low voltage (LV) needs. The state-owned utility, Electricité du Liban distribution networks, including poles, cables, (EDL), struggled with operational inefficiencies, switchgears, transformers, distribution panels, financial constraints, and outdated infrastructure, electrical accessories, and underground cables providing for an average user only about ten hours (UGC) in Beirut’s southern suburbs. In spatial terms, of daily electricity pre-crisis, which dropped to just the highest concentration of damage was observed in 1–2 hours in 2022 before slightly recovering to 4–5 Nabatiyeh governorate with US$41 million, followed hours in 2023. Its financial viability was severely by Mount Lebanon with US$27 million, and South compromised by historically low tariffs, widespread governorate with US$20 million. In addition to these non-payment of bills, and significant electricity grid-based impacts, privately owned solar power losses. Despite recent tariff increases, these trends systems likely sustained significant damage but limited EDL’s ability to invest in critical infrastructure were not included in the scope of this assessment upgrades, leading to a continuing deterioration due to data limitations. in service quality and reliability. Lebanon’s grid- connected electricity infrastructure consists of 2,300 The conflict has caused losses estimated at US$209 megawatt (MW) capacity, including seven thermal million to the Energy sector. Due to pre-existing power plants (2,000 MW)—with Zahrani and Deir operational challenges, EDL already faced a delayed Ammar being the largest at 975 MW combined—and billing cycle, with billing lagging by two to 10 months hydropower plants (280 MW, mostly on the Litani across various districts before the conflict. These river). Despite this capacity, electricity demand in losses were quantified based on accounting data 2021 of 24,000 gigawatt hours (GWh) far exceeded collected by Distribution Service Providers (DSPs), the grid-connected generation of 14,000 GWh. responsible for meter readings and payment This severe supply shortage catalyzed a dramatic collections on behalf of EDL. In this assessment, shift toward private energy solutions, particularly only billable periods, deemed irrecoverable by EDL, standalone solar photovoltaic (PV) systems with and starting with the conflict were incorporated. The battery storage, which reached 1,400 MW capacity highest losses were recorded in South governorate by end of 2024—though this growth was limited to with US$83 million, followed by Mount Lebanon with those who could afford the upfront costs given the US$59 million, and Nabatiyeh with US$36 million. constraints of Lebanon’s banking sector. The recovery and reconstruction needs for the For the Energy sector, the conflict has caused Energy sector are estimated at US$147 million. damage estimated at US$98 million to network Excluding private solar based systems, the infrastructure. Damage incurred pertains to: (i) total investment needs for electricity network power network and grid, mainly at the transmission infrastructure reconstruction are US$127 million, and distribution levels; and (ii) decentralized which covers the rehabilitation and retrofitting of power generation, including for solar power the transmission and distribution, while US$20 systems deployed by households, businesses, million is needed for service delivery restoration, and institutions, as well as diesel generators and including two elements: (i) design, engineering, associated networks, which were the primary source and operational service restoration, entailing costs of electricity for many across the country but is not associated with updated engineering and studies to included in the scope of this assessment. Damage evaluate reconstruction needs, including civil works, to the transmission network and substations is electrical interconnection, and more, as well as estimated at US$24 million, disrupting electricity additional expenses for administering procurement SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 35 and construction processes, such as engineering those related to transmission. The short term needs supervision, project management, commissioning, of US$79 million cover the remaining 50 percent and and other potential soft costs such as permitting and 70 percent of distribution and transmission assets, insurance; and (ii) TA and capacity development with respectively. TA and capacity development are potential support and training programs, supporting evenly distributed across the three periods, while technical know-how at the relevant agencies. In the design, engineering, and service restoration would immediate term, recovery needs are estimated at be covered equally during the immediate and short US$66 million and focus on restoring 50 percent of periods only. the damaged distribution assets and 30 percent of Table 12: Damage, losses, and needs for the Energy sector Asset Types Total Cost (US$, millions) DAMAGE Transmission 24 MV equipment 4.3 HV equipment 4.7 Transformer 10 Mobile substation 4.7 Distribution 74 MV/LV substations 18 MV distribution network 7.6 LV Distribution network 30 Accessories 12 UGC cables 6.0 Total Damage 98 LOSSES Financial losses of billable electricity generated and distributed by EDL 209 Total Losses 209 Immediate Term Short Term Medium Term Needs Intervention/Activity (2025) (2026–27) (2028–30) Total NEEDS Infrastructure Rehabilitation of the transmission network 9.4 22 - 31 Reconstruction & Rehabilitation Rehabilitation of the distribution network 48 48 - 96 of Assets Subtotal 57 70 - 127 Restoration of Design, engineering, and operational 7.3 7.3 - 15 Service Delivery service restoration & Access to Goods TA and capacity development 1.6 1.6 1.6 4.9 Subtotal 9.0 9.0 1.6 20 Total Needs 66 79 1.6 147 SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 36 Environment & Debris Management Damage Losses Recovery & Reconstruction Needs US$512 million US$790 million US$444 million Pre-conflict situation: Lebanon’s natural capital was recorded in Nabatiyeh district with US$5 million, was already witnessing a severe degradation followed by Marjaayoun with US$2 million. prior to the conflict with a Cost of Environmental Degradation in 2023 of US$2 billion, constituting The conflict has caused losses estimated at US$790 11 percent of Lebanon’s GDP.46 The assessed areas million. Disruptions in natural resource ecosystem include extensive forests (around 35 percent of the services amount to US$759 million, estimated for 26 country’s total forest area), grasslands, wetlands, months, although full restoration of most services rivers, and coastal ecosystems. All these provide may take more than 10 years.49 The damage to natural essential ecosystem services, such as preventing resources has disrupted ecosystem functions, which soil erosion and protecting water quality, but were typically regulate climate, control flooding, purify already threatened by urbanization, pollution, forest water and air, prevent erosion, and support nutrient fires, quarries, and climate change.47 The solid waste cycling essential for soil fertility. This reduced management (SWM) sector was already suffering functionality of ecosystems is expected to lead to from inefficiencies and financial instability, which impaired water purification, air quality, and soil were worsened by the 2019 economic and financial fertility, resulting in significant losses. Losses are crisis. Only 8 percent of solid waste was treated with noted mostly in riverine ecosystems (US$704 million) the remainder managed through basic collection and in coastal ecosystems (US$32 million), where fire systems and limited sanitary disposal options.48 caused vegetation destruction, habitat loss, water quality degradation, and disruptions to hydrology. For the Environment and Debris Management sector, Losses in SWM amount to US$31 million and are due the conflict has caused damage estimated at US$512 to losses of revenues from recycling activities (US$4.8 million. The conflict has severely impacted Lebanon’s million) and additional waste management costs due natural resources, with damage amounting to US$501 to internal displacement (US$27 million). million, affecting 9,700 hectares (ha) of forests and shrublands, 32,000 ha of grasslands, 21,000 ha of The recovery needs of natural resources and riverine ecosystems, nearly 100 ha of wetlands, and ecosystems, SWM services and debris removal 425 ha of coastline. In terms of districts, most damage are estimated at US$444 million. The recovery of was recorded in Tyre with US$110 million, largely due natural resources amounts to US$299 million and to the damage to the coastline. Damage to the SWM is expected to span several years. In the immediate sector is estimated at US$11 million, including US$3 to short term, for natural resources, it is essential million of damage to waste bins and collection trucks to first assess more in depth the damage to the and US$8 million to SWM facilities, of which eight ecosystems and soils, through additional field are destroyed. In spatial terms, most SWM damage verification and qualitative assessments and then to initiate ecological restoration50 and address soil 46  World Bank. 2024. Lebanon Cost of Environmental Degradation in 2023. 47  Ministry of Environment and UNDP. 2022. “Calculating the Quarrying Sector’s Dues to the National Treasury in Lebanon.” Beirut. https://www.undp.org/lebanon/publications/calculating-quarrying-sectors-dues-national-treasury-lebanon. 48  Ministry of Environment and World Bank. June 2023. “Lebanon Solid Waste Roadmap 2023–2026: Towards an Integrated Solid Waste Management System.” Technical Note. Lebanon. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099112023054014380/pdf/ P179435059e4c00080bd5a091bc0270002d.pdf. 49  Losses from ecosystem services have been calculated over a 26-month period. However, full restoration may take up to 10 years. 50  The activities of ecosystem restoration focus on reinstating components and conditions suitable for natural recovery processes and implementing substantial interventions in degraded ecosystems to compensate for lost natural recovery potential. They can involve, among other activities: reintroducing species to areas where they previously occurred and reinforcing populations utilizing the potential of remnant species, controlling invasive species to promote the recovery of native ecosystems, amending soil and substrates to improve conditions for ecosystem recovery, modifying water regimes to ensure adequate water availability and quality for the target ecosystem, installing structures to provide shelter, breeding sites, and other habitat features for target specie, and implementing measures to prevent soil erosion and stabilize slopes. SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 37 remediation. While ecosystems slowly recover on safe removal and management of 16.9 million tons their own,51 interventions help reinstating conditions of debris52 and hazardous waste.53 Clearance, that promote this natural recovery. These activities sorting, and recycling of debris, including hazardous include interventions such as reintroducing species, waste and e-waste is a key priority in the recovery controlling invasive species, improving soil and water phase, to mitigate environmental and public health conditions, and preventing erosion to support the risks while a pre-requisite for many of the sectoral regeneration of degraded ecosystems. The recovery reconstruction efforts. Priority interventions for the needs for the solid waste and debris management solid waste sector include rubble clearance and sector are substantial, amounting to US$145 million sustainable management to ensure safe disposal and reflecting the amount of damage to infrastructure and recycling, alongside restoring waste collection and the disruption of essential services. Among this systems by replacing damaged bins and trucks and amount, US$105 million are dedicated to the critical repairing damaged facilities. Table 13: Damage, losses, and needs for the Environment & Debris Management sector Partially Completely Total Cost Asset Types Damaged Destroyed (US$, millions) DAMAGE Natural Resources & Ecosystems Riverine ecosystems (ha) 17,270 3,865 356 Forest including shrubland (ha) 8,880 824 10.5 Wetland (ha) 58 38 2.0 Grassland (ha) 29,956 2,134 3.7 Coastline area (ha) 701 276 130 Subtotal Natural Resources & Ecosystems 501 Solid Waste & Debris Management Waste collection and transportation (unit) 35 1.4 Waste bins (unit) 10,165 1.5 Solid waste treatment facilities (unit) 1 8 7.7 Subtotal Solid Waste & Debris Management 11 Total Damage 512 LOSSES Natural Resources & Ecosystems Forest and shrubland ecosystem services losses 14 Grassland ecosystem services losses 6.8 Wetland ecosystem services losses 2.2 Riverine ecosystem services losses 704 Coastline ecosystem services losses 32 Subtotal Natural Resources & Ecosystems 759 51  This explains why, for the green environment (natural resources and ecosystems), the needs estimate is lower than the damage cost. 52  The cost was estimated by adding the rubble collection and transportation costs, the cost of loading rubble into trucks, setting up and operating rubble landfills, and establishing and operating crushing lines. Additionally, it includes the cost of constructing a hazardous waste cell in a landfill, as well as managing and recycling e-waste. 53  Hazardous waste from solar panels, batteries, electric and electronic equipment, asbestos, chemicals, etc. SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 38 Solid Waste & Debris Management Revenue losses from recycling activities 4.8 Additional cost for waste management generated by displaced population 27 Subtotal Solid Waste & Debris Management 31 Total Losses 790 Immediate Term Short Term Medium Term Needs Intervention/Activity (2025) (2026–27) (2028–30) Total NEEDS Infrastructure Natural Resources & Ecosystems Reconstruction & Rehabilitation Field assessment of damaged forests and 0.1 0.1 - 0.2 of Assets shrublands Field assessment of soil damage 0.4 - - 0.4 Reforestation and maintenance of damaged 9.5 13 9.5 32 forests and shrublands Ecological restoration of affected ecosystems 113 80 73 266 Rehabilitation of the infrastructure of the 0.7 - - 0.7 protected areas Subtotal Natural Resources & Ecosystems 124 93 82 299 Solid Waste & Debris Management Replacement of damaged bins and trucks 4.3 - - 4.3 Reconstruction of destroyed and partially 5.8 5.8 - 12 damaged SWM facilities Subtotal Solid Waste & Debris Management 10 5.8 - 16 Subtotal 134 99 82 315 Restoration of Solid Waste & Debris Management Service Delivery & Access to Debris (rubble, hazardous waste, e-waste) 42 43 20 105 Goods removal, transportation, recycling and disposal (incl. quarry rehabilitation and hazardous waste cell in one landfill) Building of sanitary landfills in affected areas 5.0 5.0 - 10 Support to operating the existing SWM 10 3 1 14 infrastructure, TA for engineering studies, Institutional support to Ministry of Environment (MoE) for E&S safeguards and monitoring Subtotal 57 51 21 129 Total Needs 191 150 103 444 SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 39 Health Damage Losses Recovery & Reconstruction Needs US$208 million US$700 million US$409 million Pre-conflict situation: Lebanon’s healthcare system (US$37 million), Baabda (US$32 million), and Tyre has traditionally been curative, hospital-centric, (US$27 million). and largely privatized, with approximately 160 hospitals—only 32 of which are public—and around The conflict has caused losses estimated at US$700 311 primarily private primary healthcare centers million. These losses result from decreased revenue (PHCCs). Before 2020, Lebanon’s health expenditure from inoperative facilities (US$605 million), followed was higher than the Middle East and North Africa by increased costs for additional health treatment average, accounting for 8.35 percent of GDP in 2019, of injuries and sicknesses due to the conflict private spending dominated, as households covered and displacement (US$51 million), and reduced 55 percent of health expenses—33 percent out-of- availability of health personnel to provide proper pocket and 22 percent through private insurance. medical attention in affected areas, leading to Governance fragmentation across multiple public increased mortality and morbidity (US$44 million). funds led to inequitable access to healthcare The biggest losses were recorded in Nabatiyeh services. The healthcare system has also been governorate (US$270 million), Baalbek-Hermel strained by Lebanon’s decade-long humanitarian (US$121 million), and South governorate (US$11 crisis, with services to Syrian refugees further million). Damage to health infrastructure and the draining resources. Economic challenges resulting loss of human resources have disrupted services, from compound crises have severely deteriorated limited access and reduced care quality. service delivery, driving up medical costs and spurring a healthcare worker exodus, reducing The recovery and reconstruction needs for Health the number of medical doctors to 26.17 per 10,000 are estimated at US$409 million. Total investment persons by 2021.54 Access to essential services needs for infrastructure reconstruction are has been decreasing, with the share of households estimated to be US$312 million and US$97 million deprived of healthcare rising from 9 percent in 2019 for service delivery restoration. Infrastructure to 33 percent in 2021. reconstruction entails the repair of damaged health facilities and replacement of medical equipment. For the Health sector, the conflict has caused Service delivery restoration entails replenishment damage estimated at US$208 million. Around of medications, vaccines, and medical supplies 298 assets were destroyed and 587 were partially (US$33 million); essential nutritional supplements damaged, impacting 33 percent of the baseline. and interventions needed to prevent malnutrition Most damage was recorded on dental clinics, with (US$16 million); public sector healthcare workers 121 completely destroyed and 44 partially damaged. compensation support, capacity building, and teams In addition, 60 pharmacies were destroyed and 270 expansion particularly at Public Health Emergency partially damaged; 34 social development centers Operation Centers (PHEOCP), epidemiological were completely destroyed and 26 partially damaged; surveillance centers, logistics, and national and while one hospital was completely destroyed and subnational response and coordination teams (US$3 39 partially damaged (see Figure in Annex C). The million); and financial coverage to secure access to conflict affected Nabatiyeh governorate the most life-saving hospital care, essential secondary care, (US$85 million), followed by South governorate primary healthcare, including mental health for (US$39 million), and Baalbek-Hermel (US$34 vulnerable populations, particularly the displaced million). Districts that witnessed the highest level (US$45 million). In the immediate term, needs are of damage of health facilities include Marjaayoun estimated at US$123 million and must focus on 54  The multiple crises have caused a significant brain drain within the health sector, with the WHO estimating in 2021 that 40 percent of doctors and 30 percent of nurses left the country either permanently or temporarily. World Health Organization. September 19, 2021. “Joint Statement by Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director General, and Dr Ahmed Al Mandhari, Regional Director for the Eastern Mediterranean, on Lebanon.” WHO Media Centre. https://www.emro.who.int/media/news/joint-statement-by-dr- tedros-adhanom-ghebreyesus-who-director-general-and-dr-ahmed-al-mandhari-regional-director-for-the-eastern-mediterranean- on-lebanon.html. SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 40 ensuring the restoration of depleted medicines, (HRH), strengthening public health infrastructure, vaccines, and medical supplies, establishing a expanding access to essential services and ensuring secure supply chain for medicines and medical financial coverage for vulnerable populations. In the supplies, replacing damaged essential equipment, medium term, needs are estimated at US$82 million and prioritizing the repair of partially and minimally and should focus on creating a comprehensive damaged health facilities while building back better. recovery plan that integrates long term resilience In the short term, needs are estimated at US$204 and disaster preparedness, mitigates financial million and should focus on rebuilding fully damaged barriers to healthcare access, and supports health facilities, replacing high-cost medical digitalization projects to improve efficiency and equipment, investing in human resources for health access to services. Table 14: Damage, losses, and needs for the Health sector Partially Damaged Completely Destroyed Total Cost Asset Types (unit) (unit) (US$, millions) DAMAGE Hospital 39 1 115 Primary healthcare center 31 11 10 Pharmacy 270 60 17 Dispensary 35 14 1.8 Laboratory 14 14 10 Private health clinic 116 28 6.2 Dental clinic 44 121 27 Blood bank - - - Optometrist 12 15 1.7 Radiology center - - - Social development center 26 34 19 Total Damage 208 LOSSES Losses of health resources for treatment of injuries and sicknesses resulting from conflict and 51 displacement Revenue losses from inoperative facilities 605 Losses from reduced availability of health personnel to provide proper medical attention in affected 44 areas Total Losses 700 SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 41 Immediate Term Short Term Medium Term Needs Intervention/Activity (2025) (2026–27) (2028–30) Total NEEDS Infrastructure Reconstruction and repair of damaged 94 156 62 312 Reconstruction health facilities and replacement of medical & Rehabilitation equipment of Assets Subtotal 94 156 62 312 Restoration of Medications, vaccines and medical supplies 10 17 6.6 33 Service Delivery & Access to Essential nutritional supplements and 4.7 7.9 3.2 16 Goods interventions to prevent malnutrition Public sector healthcare workers 0.9 1.5 0.6 3 compensation support, capacity building, and teams’ expansion Financial coverage to secure access to life- 13.5 23 9 45 saving hospital care, essential secondary care, and primary healthcare, including mental health Subtotal 29 48 20 97 Total Needs 123 204 82 409 SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 42 Housing Damage Losses Recovery & Reconstruction Needs US$4.6 billion US$363 million US$6.3 billion Pre-conflict situation: Before the 2023–24 conflict, nearly US$2.2 billion. South governorate (24 percent Lebanon’s housing sector had already been strained of impacted units, US$980 million in damage), Mount by the country’s economic and financial crisis, Lebanon (21 percent of impacted units, US$973 including high inflation, currency devaluation, and million in damage), and Baalbek-Hermel (7 percent a plunge in purchasing power starting in 2019. This of impacted units, US$236 million in damage) also environment pushed building material costs to record bear substantial burdens. highs, stalled many private housing projects, and made government-subsidized initiatives nonviable The conflict has caused losses to the Housing sector amid budget constraints and political instability. estimated at US$363 million. The largest portion of Demand pressures—further compounded by Syrian these losses stems from wage losses of domestic displacement—reduced housing availability and workers (US$163 million, or 45 percent), followed affordability, especially in urban areas. In 2024, closely by foregone rental income for landlords an estimated 1.65 million housing units existed (US$133 million, or 37 percent). Meanwhile, service nationwide, dominated by apartments (94.3 percent), providers for housing maintenance incur US$40 with single-family homes (5.1 percent), luxury villas million (11 percent) in lost revenues, and rent (0.3 percent), and informal units (0.4 percent) making expenditures by displaced owner-occupiers amount up the rest. The housing stock was mostly older to US$27 million (8 percent). Similar to damage, than 25 years, with 18.4 percent of units rented out. Nabatiyeh (US$173 million, 48 percent of total Real estate prices in 2024 remained roughly at 2023 losses), South (US$120 million, 33 percent), Bekaa levels, still 50 percent lower than before October (US$35 million, 10 percent), and Mount Lebanon 2019, reflecting limited transactions in the market. (US$29 million, 8 percent of total losses) are the Institutional weaknesses—including the lack of an most affected governorates in terms of losses. effective public housing program and affordable housing policy—have historically exacerbated The recovery and reconstruction needs for the vulnerabilities, while market speculation and minimal Housing sector are estimated at US$6.3 billion. state intervention have left most of Lebanon’s urban The total investment needs for infrastructure population, especially in Greater Beirut, facing a reconstruction are estimated to be US$6.2 billion severe shortage of adequate and affordable homes.  and US$61 million for service delivery restoration. Within infrastructure reconstruction, housing An estimated 162,900 housing units—approximately repair and reconstruction requires US$5.8 billion, 10 percent of Lebanon’s pre-conflict housing while technical inspection and engineering studies stock—have been impacted by the conflict, resulting add US$386 million. The restoration of service in physical damage estimated at US$4.6 billion. delivery encompasses institutional and regulatory Around 45,400 housing units were destroyed, arrangements (US$15 million) and support for 74,300 partially damaged, and 43,200 suffered light temporary housing (US$46 million). The needs are damage (see the geographic distribution of housing sequenced over three phases, with the immediate stock damage in Figure in Annex C).55 92 percent of term needs valued at US$1.7 billion, short term damaged units are apartments, out of which 41,700 needs at US$2.5 billion, and medium term needs units were destroyed, 68,700 were partially damaged at US$2 billion, ensuring both rapid stabilization and 39,600 units sustained light damage. In addition, of damaged units and a sustained pathway to around 12,000 single-family homes, 500 villas, and comprehensive rebuilding and strengthened sector 500 informal units were impacted. Nabatiyeh is governance. Given Lebanon’s predominantly private the most affected governorate, concentrating 44 housing sector, depending on housing recovery percent of impacted housing units, translating to policy choices, it is estimated that around 70 percent 55  Light damage entails damage to surfaces that does not impact the structural integrity of the building. This includes, for example, broken windows, broken doors, and burning of roofs. SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 43 of the infrastructure reconstruction needs (around facilities—and that building back better principles US$ 4 billion) are expected to be privately financed.56 guide reconstruction, so that rehabilitated housing The remaining 30 percent (around US$2 billion), units become more resilient and energy-efficient. together with the needs related to institutional and In addition, the recovery process will provide an regulatory arrangements and temporary housing opportunity to conceptualize housing reconstruction support (around US$60 million), are expected to be in the context of broader neighborhood upgrading, financed by the public sector to support the poorest including the provision of new green and public and most vulnerable homeowners.57 Urban recovery spaces, increased mixed-use development and and planning efforts must guarantee that housing higher density. Recovery efforts should also ensure is supported by basic municipal infrastructure— tenure security for all, including both owners and water, sanitation, electricity, and related public renters. Table 15: Damage, losses, and needs for the Housing sector Light Damage Partially Damaged Completely Destroyed Total Cost Asset Types (unit) (unit) (unit) (US$, millions) DAMAGE Single-family home 3,346 5,188 3,454 678 Villa 135 220 124 52 Apartment 39,580 68,692 41,716 3,845 Informal 115 213 124 4.3 Total Damage 4,580 LOSSES Wage losses to domestic workers 163 Rent losses for landlords 133 Service provider losses for unit maintenance 40 Increased rent expenditure for displaced owners 27 Total Losses 363 Immediate Term Short Term Medium Term Needs Intervention/Activity (2025) (2026–27) (2028–30) Total NEEDS Infrastructure Repair and reconstruction 1,617 2,366 1,821 5,805 Reconstruction & Rehabilitation of Technical inspection and engineering 108 162 117 386 Assets studies and designs Subtotal 1,725 2,528 1,938 6,191 Restoration of Institutional and regulatory arrangements 2 5 8 15 Service Delivery & Access to Emergency support for temporary housing 20 16 11 46 Goods Subtotal 22 21 18 61 Total Needs 1,747 2,549 1,957 6,252 56  Private financing of housing reconstruction will likely require reforms in Lebanon’s banking sector to restore lending capacity and create favorable credit conditions. 57  The private–public financing split is informed by poverty data and the home ownership rate among impacted households. SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 44 Municipal & Public Services Damage Losses Recovery & Reconstruction Needs US$41 million US$192 million US$76 million Pre-conflict situation: Municipalities in Lebanon, The conflict has caused losses estimated at US$192 totaling 1,030, form the third level of public million in the Municipal and Public Services sector. administration and are distributed across nine This includes: revenue losses from property tax governorates and 26 districts. Governed by the 1977 on residential properties (US$153 million), revenue Law of Municipalities, they manage public interests losses from property tax on commercial properties such as budgeting, tax collection, and infrastructure (US$5 million), revenue losses from utility companies maintenance, often under the supervision of higher (US$31 million), and revenue losses from rental income authorities. Funding comes from own-source of municipal facilities such as community markets, revenues such as property taxes, fees for municipal public parks and cultural facilities (US$0.5 million). services (sanitation, permits), business licenses and In addition, given that many facilities are no longer fines, and other local taxes and charges. Transfers functioning, it is expected that jobs of contractors and from the central government include: allocations from daily workers associated to these facilities will be lost the Independent Municipal Fund, increments from (US$1.8 million). The biggest losses were recorded in value of consumed utilities within each municipality, Nabatiyeh governorate (US$63 million), mostly due specific grants and subsidies, and shared taxes (a to the damage of the housing stock and commercial portion of the value-added tax). Due to the economic establishments, which reduced municipalities’ crisis, municipal services have reached a near- revenue collected from property taxes. collapse as a result of limited revenue generation, aging infrastructure, and inadequate administrative The recovery and reconstruction needs for the capacity, hindering their ability to provide effective Municipal and Public Services sector are estimated governance and address resident needs. As a result, at US$76 million. The total investment needs for municipal services have been reduced to only the infrastructure reconstruction are estimated to be essentials, such as solid waste collection, carrying US$62 million, which include repairing partially out vital maintenance work, and paying salaries of damaged assets (US$25 million) and reconstructing employees and municipal police. Despite efforts to completely destroyed assets (US$37 million).59 The increase own-source revenue and reliance on external total needs for service delivery restoration are assistance, municipalities struggle to maintain estimated to be US$14 million, which takes into essential services amidst economic challenges. account restoring fundamental services provided by municipal and public services (US$13 million) For the Municipal and Public Services sector, as well as the re-establishment and strengthening the conflict has caused damage estimated of governance and technical capacity (US$1.4 at US$41 million. Due to data limitations, the million). In the immediate term, recovery needs are damage assessment covers only nine districts, estimated at US$29 million and focus on repairing therefore total sector damage is likely to be higher partially damaged assets and restoring fundamental than this estimate.58 Across the nine districts services provided by municipalities and other public covered, 113 assets were destroyed and 190 were institutions, with a focus on addressing the most partially damaged. Most damage was recorded urgent assets and critical infrastructure regularly on municipality-owned buildings, for which 46 accessed by local communities, such as community assets were completely destroyed and 106 were markets, fire stations, and police stations, among partially damaged. In addition, 13 public parks were others. Infrastructure reconstruction should take destroyed, 11 sport facilities, 11 fire stations, eight into account building back better principles to ensure community market, eight public libraries, eight that services are made more resilient to continue community facilities, and two courthouses were operating in times of crisis, providing continuous destroyed. The conflict affected Marjaayoun district essential services to residents. In the short term and the most (US$11 million), followed by Tyre (US$10 medium term, needs are estimated at US$32 million million), and Bent Jbeil (US$10 million). and US$15 million, respectively, and should entail 58  Damage was assessed in the districts of Bent Jbeil, Nabatiyeh, Hasbaya, Marjaayoun, Saida, Tyre, Baalbek, Keserwan, and Baabda. Additional assessments and verification may be needed to confirm the impact on other districts. 59  Needs for infrastructure reconstruction have been derived from the damage assessment. Given the limited scope of the damage assessment, total sector needs are likely higher than estimated. SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 45 infrastructure reconstruction to ensure reparation and strengthen crisis preparedness and emergency of all assets to restore function, as well as TA for response capacities. municipal institutions to enhance revenue collection Table 16: Damage, losses, and needs for the Municipal & Public Services sector Partially Damaged Completely Destroyed Total Cost Asset Types (unit) (unit) (US$, millions) DAMAGE* Community facility 10 6 1.9 Community market 8 8 1.1 Courthouse 7 2 0.7 Fire station 7 11 5.6 Municipality building 106 46 16 Police 7 8 2.9 Post office 3 0 0.7 Public library 5 8 2.5 Public park 13 13 0.6 Sport facility 24 11 9.6 Total Damage 41 LOSSES Revenue losses from property tax on residential properties 153 Revenue losses from property tax on commercial properties 5.1 Revenue losses from utility companies 31 Revenue losses from rental income of municipal facilities 0.5 Job losses in public administration and governance sectors (daily workers) 1.8 Total Losses 192 Immediate Term Short Term Medium Term Needs Intervention/Activity (2025) (2026–27) (2028–30) Total NEEDS Infrastructure Repair partially damaged assets 13 13 0 25 Reconstruction & Rehabilitation Repair completely destroyed assets 11 15 11 37 of Assets Subtotal 24 27 11 62 Restoration Restoring fundamental services provided 5 4.5 3.3 13 of Service by municipal and public services Delivery & Access to Re-establishment and strengthening of 0.6 0.5 0.4 1.4 Goods governance and technical capacity Subtotal 5.6 5 3.7 14 Total Needs 29 32 15 76 Note: * Damage to SWM is covered under the Environment and Debris Management sector. SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 46 Transport Damage Losses Recovery & Reconstruction Needs US$198 million US$173 million US$302 million Pre-conflict context: Mobility in Lebanon is largely bridge and Jesr Qamar and Arida border crossings. dominated by road transport. The road network The conflict is likely to have exacerbated the spans approximately 21,705 km, including around deteriorating quality and vulnerability of Lebanon’s 6,380 km of main (or national) roads and 15,325 km existing roads, further compromising the stability of of municipal and local roads. The main roads are sloping terrains, the structural stability of existing further classified into international roads (529 km), roads and bridges, as well as road safety (see primary roads (1,673 km), secondary roads (1,367 impacted roads and tunnels in Figure C8 in Annex C). km), and internal roads (2,811 km). The condition Among the nine governorates, the conflict affected of the road network is generally fair to poor, and Nabatiyeh the most (US$58 million), followed by 54 percent of Lebanon’s road assets are at risk of the South governorate (US$48 million), and Bekaa landslides.60 Despite recent efforts to improve public (US$35 million). transport, most journeys are still made using private vehicles, contributing to increased congestion The conflict has caused losses estimated at US$173 and carbon emissions. Public transport service million in the Transport sector. They include provision is largely informal, fragmented, unreliable an increase in vehicle travel time due to traffic and unorganized, and the public transport fleet is disruptions and detours resulting from obstructions outdated, poorly maintained and polluting. The weak and damage to the roads (US$110 million), increase institutional framework, lack of comprehensive in marginal vehicle operating costs (US$36 million), sectoral vision, poor planning/budgeting, lack of and losses to the aviation sector due to a decline enforcement, limited fiscal space, and the impact in air passenger volumes (US$27 million). Around of recent compounded crises have contributed to 239,000 people who had access to a hospital within the sector’s developmental challenges. In a recent 30 minutes pre-conflict, and 215,000 people who had survey completed by the World Bank, 52 percent of access to an urban center, lost accessibility post- non-working women in Greater Beirut in 2022 stated conflict, meaning they now must travel more than 30 that commuting is a barrier to work outside of home, minutes to reach these facilities (see more details on and the share is similar across non-working men accessibility pre- and post-conflict in Figure in Annex (54 percent).61 Lebanon has one international airport C). Vulnerable groups, including women, children, located in Beirut and several seaports. The seaports, IDPs, and the elderly, are likely to suffer the most particularly the Port of Beirut (PoB), are struggling from hindered access to services and employment, with deteriorating infrastructure, exacerbated by the which in turn further exacerbates their vulnerability. 2020 explosion, and funding shortages that hamper As for aviation, in 2024, inbound and outbound traffic repairs and upgrades. decreased by approximately 715,000 and 756,000 passengers, respectively, compared to 2023. The For the Transport sector, the conflict has caused biggest losses are recorded in the governorates of damage estimated at US$198 million. 930 km of Nabatiyeh (US$56 million), South (US$56 million), and roads were damaged, of which 216 km are fully Baalbek-Hermel (US$15 million). destroyed and 714 km are partially damaged. Damage is largely located on internal roads (546 The recovery and reconstruction needs for km). Around 40 meters (m) of tunnels as well as six the Transport sector are estimated at US$302 bridges have been damaged, including Al Abboudiye million.62 Total investment needs for infrastructure 60  World Bank. 2024. Lebanon Country Climate and Development Report. Washington, DC: World Bank Group 61  Alam, Muneeza Mehmood and Lisa Bagnoli. 2023. “Ten-thousand Steps in Her Shoes: The Role of Public Transport in Women’s Economic Empowerment – Evidence from Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon.” Middle East and North Africa Development Report Series. World Bank, Washington, DC. 62  While services provided by transport facilities and infrastructure are not an end in themselves, they are a means to a series of wider ends. They ensure connectivity and help provide equal access to essential services and employment, contributing to food security, human capital as well as economic development. They are crucial to pave the way for recovery and reconstruction across all sectors, enabling delivery of necessary supplies and materials as well as access to damaged building and sites. SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 47 reconstruction are US$297 million, which covers addressing changes in mobility needs for displaced rehabilitation of roads, bridges, and tunnels, while populations. Short and medium term needs total US$5 million is needed for service delivery restoration, US$151 million and US$75 million, respectively, including TA towards preparatory studies, designs, focusing on rehabilitating and maintaining the project management, and works supervision as well remaining roads, tunnels, and bridges to restore as capacity development supporting technical know- connectivity between residential areas, services, how at the relevant agencies. In the immediate term, businesses, and economic hubs. Recovery should recovery needs are estimated at US$76 million and take the opportunity to build back better and ensure efforts should focus on restoring access to essential infrastructure resilience against climate change and services and employment, through rehabilitation natural disasters, while also creating much-needed and/or reconstruction of critical damaged roads employment opportunities through labor-intensive and bridges (high-traffic roads, roads in areas with road maintenance, rehabilitation and reconstruction returning displaced populations, or roads connecting interventions and the creation of microenterprises, key destination like hospitals, schools and border particularly in affected areas. crossings), as well as TA, capacity building and Table 17: Damage, losses, and needs for the Transport sector Partially Completely Total Cost Asset Types Damaged Destroyed (US$, millions) DAMAGE Roads (km) (international, primary, secondary, tertiary) 714 216 179 Bridges (m2) 786 3,044 18 Tunnels (km) 0.03 0.01 1.1 Total Damage 198 LOSSES Losses due to increase in marginal vehicle cost 36 Losses due to increase in travel time 110 Losses due to reductions in air passenger volumes 27 Total Losses 173 Immediate Term Short Term Medium Term Needs Intervention/Activity (2025) (2026–27) (2028–30) Total NEEDS Infrastructure Roads (international, primary, 67 134 67 269 Reconstruction & secondary, tertiary) Rehabilitation of Assets Bridges 6.7 13 6.7 27 Tunnels 0.4 0.8 0.4 1.6 Subtotal 74 149 74 297 Restoration of TA and capacity building 2 2 1 5 Service Delivery & Access to Goods Subtotal 2 2 1 5 Total Needs 76 151 75 302 SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 48 Water, Wastewater & Irrigation Damage Losses Recovery & Reconstruction Needs US$356 million US$171 million US$508 million Pre-conflict situation: Preceding the conflict, treatment plants, have been destroyed or partially Lebanon’s Water, Wastewater and Irrigation sector63 damaged, severely limiting their capacity to deliver already struggled with aging infrastructure and water to local networks. In terms of sanitation, three the impacts of climate change, which were in turn wastewater treatment plants (21 percent) and three worsened by conflict and economic crises. Weak wastewater pumping stations (12 percent) have been governance, increased demand, and electricity assessed as destroyed, posing a risk of waterborne outages exacerbated water scarcity. Climate change diseases and contamination on nearby water bodies. was already leading to an increased occurrence of In terms of off-farm irrigation, the total canal length prolonged droughts and irregular rainfall, further is 754 km, of which 77km, or about 10 percent has straining resources. Pollution from untreated been destroyed. According to a household survey wastewater increased water pollution, with only 6–7 covering 25 of Lebanon’s districts conducted by percent of wastewater treated. Inadequate tariffs, FAO, in collaboration with the government, damages poor collection rates, and lack of transparency in were reported to motor pumps for irrigation (65 financial reporting prevented the sector at large, percent), irrigation channels (49 percent), tube wells and the four water establishments—North Lebanon (45 percent), and solar panels (32 percent). The total Water Establishment, Beirut-Mount Lebanon Water estimated value of these damages was approximately Establishment, Bekaa Water Establishment, and South US$1.3 million. The conflict affected Marjaayoun Lebanon Water Establishment—in particular, from district the most (US$123 million), followed by Tyre covering their operating costs, much less becoming (US$79 million), and Nabatiyeh (US$77 million) (see financially sustainable. The sector showed losses of Figure C9 in Annex C for more details). Due to limited 16 percent of accrued revenues yearly, indicating a information, the damage estimates exclude the negative gross margin even assuming full collection. water supply and sewerage networks, which require The current tariff has been adjusted as of 2024 and on-site verification as most of the infrastructure is is at about US$150 per year for 1 cubic meter (m3) buried underground and cannot be assessed via per day after the adjustment for hyperinflation. Lack remote-based assessment tools. of permanent staff relative to organizational needs is a key challenge hindering the functionality of the The conflict has caused losses estimated at US$171 institutions. Technical demands of the sector require million in the Water, Wastewater and Irrigation a comprehensive water information system, inputs sector. These losses are driven by a US$24 million for operations and maintenance, increasing water increase in water establishments’ operating costs efficiency, and provision of energy. caused by damage to the water supply system, a US$7 million revenue losses for water establishments due For the Water, Wastewater and Irrigation sector, the to lost household connections from damaged units, conflict has caused damage estimated at US$356 and, at the household level, US$140 million in losses million. This encompasses damage of US$341 of producer surplus65 to water establishments million in water supply and sanitation and US$15 from the households’ increased reliance on tanker million to off-farm irrigation. About 64 percent of water purchases, which cost 10 times more for the community water supply distribution reservoirs, households. The reliance on expensive water from 46 percent of water reservoirs, 58 percent of private trucks is expected to constrain demand for water pumping stations,64 and 23 percent of water water establishments water by up to 32 percent.66 63  Regarding irrigation, this section covers off-farm irrigation, which refers to infrastructure or services that deliver water up to the boundary of a farm but not within it. In contrast, the Agriculture and Food Security sector section addresses on-farm irrigation. 64  The number reported here includes potable water pumping stations, as well as other water stations for other uses where water is not potable. 65  The losses to water establishments from households relying on high-cost water tankers instead of water supply produced by the water establishments. The producer surplus is calculated for the water establishments that lose the revenue from household units destroyed completely and thus would have to resort to tanker water purchases at a much higher rate than the public network for the 14 months of the conflict, and another 12 months discounted at 50 percent. 66  The water establishments provide 1 m3 of water per household per day for an average household size of 4.5 people. This amounts to 220 liters (L) per capita per day. This decrease amounts to 150 L per person per day, which is the basic right. SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 49 In spatial terms, losses are highest in Marjaayoun recovery needs are estimated at US$144 million and district with US$27 million, followed by Baalbek with should entail emergency measures such as energy US$23 million, and Tyre with US$19 million. provisions to operate water facilities, restoring water supply services, water quality monitoring, and The recovery and reconstruction needs for the infrastructure repairs to help prevent immediate Water, Wastewater and Irrigation sector are crises, such as waterborne diseases, contamination, estimated at US$ 508 million. Total investment needs and service disruptions. In addition, irrigation for infrastructure reconstruction are estimated to needs are prioritized for the immediate term along be US$462 million with US$46 million for service with the needs for repairing infrastructure that delivery restoration. Ensuring both immediate term is partially damaged. In the short and medium and short-term support for the water sector is crucial term, recovery needs are estimated to be US$264 for public health, environmental sustainability, million and US$100 million, respectively, and entail and economic resilience. In the immediate term, investments in water resource assessments, Table 18: Damage, losses, and needs for the Water, Wastewater & Irrigation sector Partially Completely Total Cost Asset Types Damaged Destroyed (US$, millions) DAMAGE Water supply and sanitation (number) Pumping station (drinking water) 20 8 40 Pumping station (sewage) - 3 4.6 Wastewater treatment plant - 3 90 Water pump station 11 18 56 Water reservoir 12 1 20 Community water supply distribution reservoirs 20 53 2.1 Water spring 1 6 0.3 Water tower 1 5 53 Water treatment plant 2 1 72 Water well 39 34 1.9 Irrigation (km) Canals - 3 1 Drains - 4 0.1 Irrigation networks - 69 14 Total Damage 356 LOSSES Increased operating costs for water establishments 24 Revenue losses for water establishments 7 Surplus losses of water establishments from reliance on private trucks 140 Total Losses 171 SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 50 Short term Medium term Long term Needs Intervention/Activity (2025) (2026-2027) (2028-2030) Total NEEDS Infrastructure Water Supply and sanitation (number) Reconstruction & Rehabilitation Pumping station (drinking water) 26 18 7.8 52 of Assets Pumping station (sewage) - 4.2 1.8 6 Wastewater treatment plant - 82 35 117 Water pump station 14 41 18 73 Water reservoir 22 3.2 1.4 26 Community water supply distribution reservoir 0.4 1.7 0.7 2.8 Water spring 0.03 0.3 0.1 0.4 Water tower 5.1 45 19 69 Water treatment plant 42 36 16 94 Water well 0.8 1.2 0.5 2.4 Irrigation Canals 0.4 0.9 - 1.3 Drains 0.1 0.06 - 0.2 Irrigation networks 13 5.4 - 18 Subtotal 123 239 100 462 Restoration of Operating costs of service restoration  16 19 - 35 Service Delivery & Access to Rebuilding revenue streams 4.7 5.5 - 10 Goods Subtotal 20 24 - 46 Total Needs 143 264 100 508 infrastructure rehabilitation, and efficiency these efforts contribute to economic stability, food improvements to strengthen the sector’s resilience security, and overall development, reducing risks and sustainability, providing an opportunity to build and resource scarcity. Reconstruction efforts should back better. Reconnecting water facilities to the be accompanied by investments in water supply and grid, addressing leakage, and expanding monitoring sanitation infrastructure to restore service delivery, systems will ensure a more stable and efficient facilitating the transition from short term emergency water supply, reducing long term operational costs. response to longer term, sustainable water supply Reliable water infrastructure supports industries and sanitation services. These measures will need such as agriculture, manufacturing, and energy to be accompanied by efforts to strengthen the production, which depend on a steady water supply. institutional arrangements for sustaining services. By safeguarding water quality and distribution, SECTORAL ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 51 METHODOLOGY, DATA & LIMITATIONS 52 METHODOLOGY FOR DAMAGE, LOSS, METHODOLOGY FOR THE AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS The Lebanon RDNA follows the globally established As part of the RDNA, the macroeconomic analysis and recognized PDNA assessment methodology nowcasts real GDP growth in 2024 using MIDAS. jointly developed by the EU, the World Bank, and A key advantage of MIDAS regressions is their the UN. This methodology has been applied globally ability to combine low-frequency GDP data with in post-disaster and post-conflict contexts to higher-frequency economic activity data. This inform recovery and reconstruction planning. This macroeconomic analysis complements the RDNA transparent and standard assessment methodology but follows a different methodology and time frame. contributes to coordinated and coherent national While the RDNA assesses sector-level damage and international efforts. In the case of Lebanon, the over a longer horizon, its results are not directly methodology was adjusted to cover a more limited comparable to GDP estimates. However, the damage scope of 10 sectors and to rely on a mix of ground- identified in the RDNA will ultimately reduce the based and remote-based data. capital stock across many sectors of the economy and is expected to have a significant impact on The RDNA assesses (i) damage; (ii) losses; and Lebanon’s future GDP potential. (iii) recovery and reconstruction needs: damage is estimated as the replacement value of totally, LIMITATIONS partially, or lightly damaged physical assets; losses are estimated from the disruptions to the The RDNA was produced in a quick timeframe economy that arise from the temporary absence to provide a rapid estimate and analysis of the of the damaged assets, for a period of 26 months,67 impacts and needs arising from the conflict in unless otherwise indicated; and recovery and Lebanon. Although extensive efforts were made to reconstruction needs are comprised of rebuilding improve the accuracy of the information, the RDNA infrastructure and rehabilitating assets as well is not a replacement of in-depth sector-specific as restoring service delivery and access to goods. assessments. They are costed in the immediate (2025), short (2026–27), and medium term (2028–30). They cover In particular, the RDNA faced several sector-specific opportunities to build back better and smarter challenges, which were mitigated where possible guided by principles of inclusion, resilience, and through data triangulation and methodological sustainability. They are costed in current prices adaptations. In Agriculture and Food Security, limited (considering inflation). They will be financed by a ground-truthing and data gaps, particularly for combination of private and public financing. infrastructure and machinery, were addressed by integrating satellite imagery with information from The assessment follows a two-tiered hybrid CNRS-L, key informants, and development partners. approach, relying on both ground-based and Commerce, Industry and Tourism estimates, remote-based data. This process involves the while based on aggregated and extrapolated collection and triangulation of data obtained data, leveraged online mapping platforms and through various sources including ground-based satellite imagery to capture broader business surveys and assessments, KIIs, sample-based field impacts, though smaller-scale and informal sector verification, as well as high-resolution satellite damages may be underrepresented. The Education imagery, SAR, anonymized cellphone data tracking, assessment focused on the hardest-hit areas, and social media analytics. Data collection involved acknowledging potential underestimation of private the technical collaboration between the World Bank sector revenue losses. In Energy, decentralized solar and the CNRS-L.68 Data were also corroborated with PV systems and diesel generators were not fully data available at line ministries and UN agencies quantified, highlighting the need for further analysis. (see the detailed methodology note in Annex A). Environment and Debris Management estimates, 67  The 26 months include the conflict period (October 2023–November 2024) as well as a one-year recovery period (December 2024–December 2025). For some sectors, it is anticipated that losses will further accumulate beyond this period. 68  The World Bank partly had Ipsos provide the data. Ipsos is a multinational research firm with a global network of over 22,000 surveyors in 95 countries and an extensive network of data suppliers. Ipsos has extensive experience in damage data collection, having undertaken multiple projects on this topic for the World Bank. METHODOLOGY, DATA & LIMITATIONS 53 constrained by access limitations, relied on high- assessment prioritized major road infrastructure, level references to assess debris management. recognizing the need for further analysis of vehicle Health sector analysis adapted methodologies from and traffic furniture damages. Finally, the Water, comparable contexts to estimate impacts, while Wastewater and Irrigation sector combined satellite also considering ongoing detailed assessments imagery, ministry data, and qualitative reviews, by health partners. Housing estimates were underscoring the importance of ground-truthing for primarily based on remote data and thus serve as future refinements, including ground assessments indicative figures that can be further refined with and on-site verification to assess the level of damage more granular ground data. Municipal and Public to underground infrastructure, such as water supply Services assessments acknowledged potential and sewerage networks. Despite these challenges, underestimations due to baseline data constraints the assessment offers a strong foundation for and made informed assumptions on service understanding conflict impacts, with clear pathways disruptions and external support. The Transport for further data enhancement and refinement. METHODOLOGY, DATA & LIMITATIONS 54 Annex A: Detailed Methodology Note 1. ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY SUMMARY Macroeconomic Impact Damage Losses Needs Purpose Estimate overall impact Quantify the physical Estimate economic Cost of rebuilding of the conflict on 2024 damage (complete losses, including assets and restoring GDP destruction or partial reductions in revenues, services and business damage) induced by the increased operational activity to the conflict based on pre- costs, and employment pre-conflict level, conflict dollar value losses valued at current using current prices prices (with inflation) and including a build back better premium Geographic National, covering the entire country to estimate both the direct and indirect impacts of the conflict. Scope Sectoral Whole economy 10 sectors: Agriculture & Food Security; Commerce, Industry & Tourism; Scope Education; Environment & Debris Management; Energy; Health; Housing; Municipal & Public Services; Transport; Water, Wastewater & Irrigation Time Period 2024 (estimate) October 8, 2023 – December 26 months (14 months of 2025–2030 20, 2024 conflict + first recovery year, unless otherwise indicated) Approach MIDAS-based Identification (remote Assumption-based Infrastructure econometric modeling  sensing, ground reporting) sectoral losses based reconstruction and quantification of on damage and derived from damage partially and fully damaged displacement data as data; service delivery assets well as sector-specific restoration derived transmission channels from loss and sectoral data Unit of Percent GDP Monetary value (US$) Monetary value (US$) Monetary value (US$) Results Key Data Banque du Liban; World Ground-based data: ground Damage data, sectoral Damage data, loss Sources Bank macro modeling surveys, KIIs, publicly data, displacement data data, sectoral data available data; Remotely collected data: high-resolution satellite imagery, SAR, artificial intelligence and algorithms, social media analytics ANNEXES 55 2. RDNA METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH Needs. The estimation of sector recovery and reconstruction needs involves identifying, The assessment is based on the PDNA methodology, characterizing, and costing the requirements for jointly developed by the EU, the UN, and the World restoring infrastructure and services to their pre- Bank, which has been successfully applied in conflict levels of functionality while ensuring a numerous countries.69 sustainable recovery process. These are prioritized into three timeframes: immediate term needs (2025), This RDNA provides estimates of: (i) damage to short term needs (2026–27), and medium term needs physical assets, estimated as the replacement value (2028–30). The needs are categorized into two broad of completely destroyed or partially damaged physical categories: (i) infrastructure reconstruction and assets; (ii) economic losses, estimated as changes asset rehabilitation—this includes the replacement in economic flows that result from the interruption and rehabilitation of physical assets, valued based or reduction of production and services due to the on replacement costs with premiums for building conflict; and (iii) recovery and reconstruction needs, back better, smarter, and greener, as well as estimated as the cost of rebuilding infrastructure adjustments for inflation and insurance; and (ii) and restoring service delivery to the pre-conflict service delivery and access to goods—this entails level, including a build back better premium. the cost of restoring essential services, resuming the production of goods, and ensuring access to Baseline. The baseline consists of the pre-conflict services. It includes both the costs incurred by situation in terms of number and geographical service providers to reinstate basic services and distribution of assets, as well as their economic the additional costs borne by affected populations values (pre-conflict replacement cost of the asset). to access them. Needs estimations are based on current market prices, incorporating production and Damage. The damage estimates are calculated transportation costs, logistics, materials, labor, and based on: (i) the pre-conflict replacement value per other relevant factors. asset category; (ii) the number of assets damaged in each category assessed within the sector; and (iii) 3. DATA COLLECTION the physical status of the assets (completely, partially or lightly damaged). As a general assumption in Data collection involved the technical collaboration line with standard PDNA methodology, completely between the World Bank and the CNRS-L. Data destroyed assets were costed at 100 percent of the was also corroborated with data available at line replacement cost; partially damaged assets at 40 ministries and UN agencies. The Lebanon RDNA percent. For the housing sector, a third category— follows a two-tiered hybrid approach, relying on “lightly damaged”—has been introduced costed at 10 both ground-based and remote-sensing data, using percent of the replacement cost. triangulation of sources to strengthen the veracity and accuracy of the estimates. The following type Losses. Estimating losses entails capturing the of data collection sources, methods, and techniques effects of the conflict beyond the immediate damage were used by the World Bank: and destruction of physical assets. This can include lost income, increased operational costs, and reduced a) Ground-based Data productivity. To maintain a way of comparison across sectors, unless otherwise indicated in the sector • Key informant interviews: KIIs were conducted, summaries, losses were estimated for a period of allowing to collect direct feedback on damage 26 months (14 months of conflict plus another 12 and functionalities of assets. Key informants months), based on damage incurred, displacement included a wide range of people, depending on the patterns, and other sector-specific transmission sector, and included municipal and governorate channels. Sector-specific transmission channels representatives, health and education facility refer to factors such as reduced or absent travel stakeholders, farmers, professional syndicates, (specific to tourism), use of facilities as shelters and manufacturers. (such as schools), economic disruptions, and supply chain interruptions, all of which contribute to sectoral losses. However, losses may continue to accumulate beyond this period, depending on the speed of sectoral recovery and sector-specific criteria. 69  For example: Gaza (2021 and March 2024), Libya Floods (February 2024), Syria Earthquake (2023), Ukraine (2022), Pakistan Floods (2022), Beirut (2020). ANNEXES 56 • Ground surveys: ground-based teams collected • Artificial intelligence (AI) and algorithms, refined a sample of data on schools within and outside via manual review: this was used for object conflict-affected areas to provide a nationwide detection and for activity detection to integrate representative survey on functionality impacts. In data from multiple sources to achieve the highest addition, a pilot AI-based survey was done for a level of accuracy possible. Object detection mass volume assessment of basic functionality of algorithms include YOLO V8 and Segment Anything commercial structures. Mode and its models for activity detection focus on • Sample-based field verification was conducted on proprietary models built on top of spatial-temporal a representative sample in the following sectors, graph neural, spectral analysis techniques, from December 19, 2024, to January 15, 2025: including common techniques such as Normalized Commerce, Industry and Tourism; Education; Difference Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Energy; Health; Transport; Municipal and Public Snow Index, spectral unmixing and isolation forest Services; and Water, Wastewater and Irrigation. for anomaly detection, among others. Automated results were further refined via manual review by • Third-party data: government, municipalities, civil trained imagery analysts. society, and humanitarian actors. • Anonymized cell phone data: anonymized mobile b) Remote-sensing Data phone data compliant with the General Data Protection Regulation has been used across • High-resolution optical imagery: at 30–50 Lebanon for the assessment on Displacement, centimeters (cm), from PNO, Airbus, and Planet Education, and Health. Labs, with pre-conflict imagery taken as closely • Open Web Geographical Information for the as possible prior to the onset of conflict and recent creation of baseline data, including Google Maps, imagery acquired on November 30, 2024, and Open Street Map (OSM), and Microsoft Machine December 5–6, 2024. Both pre-conflict and recent Learning (ML). The baseline was further augmented snapshots were used to provide accurate estimate by data from government partners. Additionally, of sectoral baselines and damage. any facilities or assets detected during ground • Synthetic aperture radar: SAR was used to capture team verification that were not previously part of areas not covered by high-resolution optical the baseline were added. This baseline was used imagery and to capture cumulative damage. The noticeably to inform the SAR analysis. following thresholds were used: -0.7 for partial • Publicly available information (PAI): including damage and -0.9 for destroyed, specifically tuned social media analytics, available datasets (e.g., to urban areas. To calculate structural damage census data, national accounts, etc.) and news to infrastructure, changes in the “coherence”70 of reporting. the SAR signal obtained from the European Space • Partner data: from CNRS-L, the government, Agency’s (ESA) Sentinel-1 satellite was calculated. and development partners (in particular from UN • Manual review of imagery: undertaken by imagery agencies). analysts for the areas with persistent conflict • Proxy indicators: from other similar countries and/ activity. or similar assessments (e.g., Beirut RDNA, 2020). 70  Coherence is a measure of the “randomness” of the SAR signal, allowing the separation of the landscape’s stable structural features. It is calculated by comparing the similarity of the radar signal from two different pre-conflict snapshots against the similarity of the radar signal from a post-conflict snapshot to a snapshot right before the start of the conflict. Landscape features that returned a stable signal before but not after the conflict are classified as either damaged or destroyed depending on how much the stability of the signal decreased. For example, while a building will usually reflect a similar radar signal at different points, a body of water or a street with a lot of traffic will not. If, suddenly, the radar signal takes a longer time to bounce back from the building, this signals that it is probably damaged. The value change difference between pre-conflict and post-conflict ranged from 0 for no change to -1 for significant change. For in-depth technical explanations, see Boloorani, Ali Darvishi, Mehdi Darvishi, Qihao Weng, and Xiangtong Liu. 2021. “Post-war Urban Damage Mapping Using InSAR: The Case of Mosul City in Iraq.” ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 10 (3): 140; and Plank, Simon. 2014. “Rapid Damage Assessment by Means of Multi-temporal SAR–A Comprehensive Review and Outlook to Sentinel-1.” Remote Sensing 6 (6): 4870–906. ANNEXES 57 4. SECTOR-SPECIFIC APPROACHES Each sector proceeded with the following assumptions, methodological approaches, and data sources for the sectoral analysis of baseline, damage, losses, and needs. AGRICULTURE & FOOD SECURITY Assessment Item Approach and Assumptions Data Sources Baseline The baseline for the cropland areas was collected from ESA WorldCover v2, ESA, PAI (Census); selecting land cover (crop) types that fall into agricultural areas. These crop types Partner’s data (FAO, include: bananas; citrus orchard; fruit orchard; mixed orchards and fields; olives; WFP, ILO, Ministry potatoes and vegetables; tobacco; vineyard; wheat and barley. of Agriculture); KIIs; Literature review. Damage Damage to cropland was established through the percentage of agricultural areas Normalized Burn Ratio burned. Burn area (dNBR) index was calculated from Clear-Sky Landsat images at derived from Clear- 30 m resolution and classified into partial damage and destroyed burned areas. Sky Landsat satellite These burned areas were geospatially intersected with the full agriculture baseline imagery ; KIIs with (from July and September 2024 for a cumulative view) to determine damaged various public and areas in hectares. private stakeholders, including poultry Adjustments from satellite imagery data were made as follows: All tobacco-related syndicate, four fishery data were removed from the analysis for Jbeil, as key informants confirmed that syndicates, handmade there are no tobacco plantations in this district. Regarding the greenhouse damage, boat’s manufacturer, the available data were not disaggregated, so the distribution was estimated by aquaculture pond allocating 75 percent of the damage to coastal districts, which experienced the manager, supplier for most bombardment and have a larger baseline of greenhouses, and 25 percent to agriculture material the eastern districts, also affected by bombardments. Damage related to potatoes (“Agriculture House”), and vegetables, wheat and barley crops in the Bekaa district (i.e., Zahle, West beehive syndicate, Bekaa, and Rachaya) was excluded due to information received from governors Beqaa Farmers that contradicts data received from satellite imagery. syndicate, Heads of Damage to livestock was established through extrapolation and data triangulation. Municipalities, and As no updated data on livestock was available, the team triangulated damage data Union of Municipalities. received from FAO Data in Emergencies Monitoring (DIEM) round 8 with baseline FAO Data in Emergencies numbers received from FAO and obtained an estimate damage for cattle, sheep, Monitoring (DIEM) and goats, both adult and junior. For poultry, the team received information from round 8 key informants and industry experts. Given lack of access, the southernmost flocks and herds are assumed lost given that most have been abandoned or are inaccessible for the moment. Estimation of damage on on-farm irrigation systems was made by the team based on available resources and KIIs that stated more prominent damages in pumps, on-farm water tanks, and solar power systems to power the pumps. Irrigation areas were considered only for the crops that were significantly affected; potatoes, vegetables, and vineyards. The damaged area was assessed under the assumption that all destroyed irrigated crops would also result in the destruction of their respective irrigation systems. Finally, due to the lack of disaggregated data for aquaculture ponds, losses were split between Tyre, Saida, Jezzine, Marjaayoun, Hasbaya, Nabatiyeh, and Bent Jbeil, areas along the sea, and both Litani and Awali rivers. Damage to other assets were estimated through KIIs and partners’ data. ANNEXES 58 Assessment Item Approach and Assumptions Data Sources Losses Losses were calculated using farmgate price and production cycles. FAO; KIIs; Literature review Losses of revenues from crops: For fruit orchard production, the figures are based on an average yield per hectare derived from apricot and avocado orchards. The production values for mixed orchards and fields combine the yields of both fruits and vegetables per hectare. The farmgate price for mixed orchards and fields is calculated as an average of the prices for four crops: tomato, zucchini, avocado, and apricots. Similarly, the farmgate price for potatoes and vegetables is based on the average price of potatoes and tomatoes. For greenhouses, the production volume was estimated as the average of strawberry and tomato production, with 25 tons and 200 tons per hectare respectively, and the average unit price was an average between prices of 1 kg of strawberries and 1 kg of tomatoes provided by the FAO. For crops, a recovery period of three years was assumed, except for greenhouses with one year, as it represents a balanced estimate between the time required for most fruit trees to begin fruiting and the time necessary for rehabilitating fields, setting up irrigation networks, and preparing the soil for replanting and potential soil remediation. Also, the harvest of wheat and barley had already occurred before data collection, leading to misrepresentation of damaged assets, and the harvest was stored but subsequently rotted and were not sold. Whereas for potatoes and vegetables, most fields were abandoned, and harvest was left on the ground, leading to a complete waste of the season. Therefore, this portion of losses was accounted for in the loss calculation over a one-year period only. Loss of revenues from livestock was estimated based on the value of meat and animal-specific byproducts such as milk, eggs, tallow, and wool. The price for chickens assumes the price of US$6.5 per broiler, as all damage was observed in broiler farms, with no damage to laying hens. For goats, the average milk production was estimated across Baladi and Alpine breeds. Meat production from cattle, goats, and sheep was counted once in the damage. For livestock, the recovery period was considered as an average of one year for chickens to account for the time needed to source the chicks and reach maturity. Cattle, sheep, and goats also need an average of two years for recovery for the animals to reach maturity and the ideal weight for slaughter or start of milk production. The two years also account for time needed to build and restore livestock infrastructure to ensure operation optimization. The team also assumed that livestock herds were mainly made up of females as there is no specific data on the number of dairy farms versus meat farms. For fisheries, losses from boat damages were calculated by using the total revenues from fisheries in Lebanon in 2023 (US$377.40 million) assuming that 25 percent originated from the South and Nabatieh Governorates, and accounting for losses generated from 3 months halt in fishing activities in the two governorates. ANNEXES 59 Assessment Item Approach and Assumptions Data Sources Needs Needs were calculated by applying a recovery factor to the unit costs of each FAO; WFP; KIIs asset, considering an inflation rate of 9.9 percent, location-specific cost variations, IPC. “Lebanon: Acute potential financial impacts from delays, and adjustments to meet higher quality Food Insecurity standards. This approach adheres to the build back better principle, enhancing Situation for October sustainability and resilience, and includes a reconstruction premium to improve 2023 - March 2024 and long-term infrastructure viability. Recovery needs for agricultural labor and Projection for April animal feed were equitably distributed among the most affected districts: Tyre, 2024 - September Marjaayoun, Hasbaya, Rachaya, and Bent Jbeil. 2024 | IPC - Integrated For the Food security sector, the needs were calculated by multiplying the number Food Security Phase of people vulnerable to food security (IPC level 3 and higher) with the price of the Classification.” Ipcinfo. Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB) as set by the WFP at US$ 37.4 per org, 2023, month (US$ 448.8 per year). This number of people vulnerable to food security was obtained by subtracting the number of people above IPC level 3 between the period of October 2023 – March 2024, and the predictions for January – March 2025. The IPC assesses the number of people at IPC Level 3 or higher on a trimestral to bi-annual basis, with the following estimates: May 2023 – October 2023: 1,346,559; October 2023 – March 2024: 1,0140,90; April 2024 – September 2024: 1,106,206; October 2024-December 2024: 1,506,998; January 2025 – March 2025 (projected): 1,564,564. The period from May 2023 – October 2023 was marked by heightened instability due to the lira crisis, reduced access to bread, and the lifting of subsidies. As a result, the October 2023 – March 2024 period is considered a more reliable baseline for understanding the food security situation before further shifts in displacement patterns and socio-economic conditions caused by the conflict’s increased intensity. The projected figure for the first quarter of 2025 was used to estimate immediate needs as accurately as possible. Limitations The current data remains an approximate estimate due to several limitations in data gathering and the lack of comprehensive ground-truthing. Major gaps in data persist for several assets, particularly for agriculture infrastructure and machinery, where significant assets have not been fully accounted for. While damage data for crop assets was accurately measured using satellite imagery, similar data could not be obtained for livestock and data were obtained through estimation and triangulation using data from development partners. As a result, the team had to estimate disaggregated damage, which may not accurately reflect the situation on the ground. This is largely due to challenges in accessing conflicted areas, inconsistent reporting, and the destruction of records. The team had to estimate disaggregation for losses in greenhouses, fishing boats, aquaculture ponds based on KIIs. COMMERCE, INDUSTRY & TOURISM Assessment Item  Approach and Assumptions  Data Sources  Baseline  The baseline for the number of establishments was established by using Establishment Census population growth projection on the commerce/tourism establishment census of of 2004 (CAS)   2004, as it is the only and most recent source providing a distribution of commerce Online mapping establishments nationwide over the concerned economic activities. platforms such as In the absence of nationally available geolocated data for businesses, the Google Maps, OSM, and primary method utilized online mapping platforms such as Google Maps, OSM, Microsoft ML and Microsoft ML, which provided a baseline of around 18,415 establishments in conflict-affected zones. An extrapolation was applied on the baseline to correct for omitted establishments that are not represented on online platforms using the following assumptions: (i) 60 percent of formal businesses and 10 percent of informal businesses are geolocated; (ii) the number of informal businesses is 2.5x the number of formal businesses (based on CAS 2004 establishment census). The extrapolation resulted in the expansion of the baseline to 85,400 establishments and allowed for a more comprehensive estimation of damaged business baseline and damage in the affected areas.  ANNEXES 60 Assessment Item  Approach and Assumptions  Data Sources  Damage  Damage assessment was conducted using SAR, and further augmented using Establishment Census field verifications, surveys, and interviews. The damage estimation also accounted of 2004 (CAS)  for size differences among establishments estimating that 5 percent are large, 55 Unit costs were verified percent are small and medium and 40 percent are micro. through KIIs Losses The loss estimates utilize two key data sources: (i) the 2004 establishment Establishment Census census that contains the distribution of establishments by economic activity and of 2004 (CAS); 2020 by district – a growth factor relative to population growth was applied to obtain National Accounts; an approximation of the 2023 distribution; and (ii) the national accounts, which Proxy data; KIIs   provides the value added of economic activity – the data were based on past trends and team estimates of the market progression. Due to lack of data on size and production capacity of establishments, the team assumed that all establishments in all districts produce equal outputs.  Districts were divided into direct high impact areas (Nabatiyeh and South governorates); direct moderate impact (districts adjacent to high impact areas that have seen moderate levels of conflict incidents); and indirect impact zones (without direct conflict incidents) with assumptions developed relevant to each zone, conflict intensity relative to its progression over time, and asset type on the percentage of economic activity lost (see table below). These percentages were then applied to the GDP estimates (of each establishment) to obtain output losses and estimated wage losses.  Needs  Infrastructure reconstruction and rehabilitation of assets: uses total cost of   destroyed for the reconstruction costs, and partially damaged for the repairs. The unit costs used in the needs assessment covered the machinery and equipment and the structural values. The structural cost also accounts for a 30 percent additional premium to account for building back better and inflation. Restoration of services and access to goods: the team estimates that majority of the losses incurred have been circumstantial to the conflict with the key assumption that establishments that would require liquidity support are the ones that had to completely cease operation and those that have received physical damage. 30 percent of total economic losses are needed to be injected targeting micro, small, and medium establishments (MSMEs) particularly to maintain livelihoods of the most vulnerable. This is the equivalent of saying that 35 percent of businesses in conflict affected zones, primarily MSMEs, will need around 35,000$ of working capital financing. Limitations Outdated and aggregated data: CAS national accounts data is aggregated on International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC) chapters that mix between commerce and non-commerce activities, even the national accounts that were published in aggregated form in 2021 are slightly outdated as the structure of the economy has greatly varied in the past four years. The latest establishment census by the CAS was concluded in 2004, which predates the 2006 war, making it highly outdated and only indicative of the current distribution. Moreover, CAS data does not include self-employed and business owners that operate from their homes or remotely. Additionally, satellite imagery may not capture smaller-scale damages, such as broken windows or minor infrastructure issues, which could result in businesses with such light damages being overlooked in the assessment.  ANNEXES 61 Percentage of economc activity lost per conflict intensity (assumptions) Direct high impact Direct moderate Indirect impact area impact area area High conflict Manufacturing – light and heavy 95% 70% 5% intensity Wholesale and retail 95% 60% 20% Tourism and hospitality 100% 80% 70% Services 90% 50% 5% Food and beverage 90% 60% 0% Moderate Manufacturing – light and heavy 20% 10% 3% conflict intensity Wholesale and retail 20% 10% 10% Tourism and hospitality 60% 50% 40% Services 40% 10% 3% Food and beverage 30% 5% 0% Post ceasefire Manufacturing – light and heavy 60% 30% 2% Wholesale and retail 40% 20% 5% Tourism and hospitality 60% 50% 40% Services 30% 10% 2% Food and beverage 30% 5% 0% DISPLACEMENT Assessment Item  Approach and Assumptions  Data Sources  Displacement Data were collected from various sources, IOM: Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) Mobility tracking and including IOM, WHO, and OCHA, and phone Snapshots from November 2024 and February 2025 analysis surveys conducted by the World Bank. provided data on the number of IDPs and their movements. This data were then integrated to create a Phone Surveys Conducted by the World Bank: These comprehensive picture of the displacement surveys provided additional data on the living conditions situation. The movements of displaced and coping mechanisms of displaced populations. populations, including internal displacement and returns, were mapped to understand the Lebanese Ministry of Health: Reported significant dynamics of displacement. Vulnerabilities of casualties and extensive damage, which contributed to different groups, such as women, children, the the understanding of the scale of displacement. elderly, persons with disabilities, refugees, and OCHA Flash Updates: Provided updates on the escalation migrant workers, were assessed. The impact of hostilities and the resulting displacement. of displacement on various sectors, including healthcare, food security, and infrastructure, Mixed Migration Center: Provided data on the number of was evaluated. Challenges faced by displaced foreign refugees in Lebanon. populations, such as inadequate sanitation, lack of medical care, and economic pressures, International Displacement Monitoring Centre: Provided were identified. global reports on internal displacement. Limitations The data on displacement is considered indicative due to the fluidity and informality of internal displacement. Many people remain on the move until military activities cease and basic civilian infrastructure and sources of livelihood are restored. ANNEXES 62 EDUCATION Assessment Item  Approach and Assumptions  Data Sources  Baseline  The baseline included 1,188 educational facilities between schools, colleges, and Open-source universities. The baseline was compiled from Ministry of Education facility lists. Baseline; Satellite imagery  Damage  SAR automated analysis of damaged facilities was verified by imagery analysis to confirm partially damaged and destroyed areas and remove false positives of damage. It was further augmented through field team verification on a representative sample of facilities. Strategic field team assessments were conducted in 319 geographic areas of South Lebanon, Bekaa, Baalbek-Hermel, and Dahiyeh. The damage and functionality calls from the field team assessments supplemented and informed the imagery analysis. Methods include KIIs with locals; field visits; and analysis of social media as well as other publicly available sources of information. For the unit costs on destroyed schools, the calculations estimate the average replacement cost (average unit size x average unit cost), with weights attributed for the size and unit costs to the share of the types of school (40 percent public, 58 percent private, and 2 percent universities). Losses Losses consist of: MEHE; IOM; Satellite imagery; Proxy data a. The cost of operating temporary learning spaces (hub schools) set up by the (Beirut RDNA) Ministry of Education and Higher Education (MEHE): • Estimated number of students in need for hub schools were as follows, according to the MEHE: 150,000 public school displaced students, 300,000 private school students, and 200,000 public school students, whose regular schools were used as shelters. • For the 2023–24 academic year, these costs are estimated for students displaced in the South (estimated at 10,000 public and 10,000 private).  • Disaggregation by district: losses associated with additional costs for hub schools were assigned to each district based on number of IDPs in each district as a proportion of the total number of IDPs at the national level. b. The loss of revenues from private school tuition fees, using the following assumptions: • 40 percent of affected private school students withdrew from private schools. Note that this assumes 60 percent of all displaced private school students continued to stay enrolled and pay tuition despite being displaced. • For the 2023–24 academic year, it is assumed that affected schools lost a full year of tuition fees for the 40 percent of displaced students. • For the 2024–25 academic year, losses have been estimated for the first term. The average annual tuition fee is estimated at US$4,500 (US$1,500/term). • Disaggregation by district: For the 2023–24 academic year, all losses were assigned to South Lebanon. Losses associated with lost private school fees were assigned to each district based on the number of schools closed in each district as a proportion of the total number of schools closed at the national level.  Needs For infrastructure reconstruction and rehabilitation of assets, needs are derived Population data: from the damage assessment, applying a 1.5 factor for building back better, and Information distributed as follows: 50 percent of total costs to the immediate term, 30 percent to International the short term, and 20 percent to the medium term. For service delivery and access to good restoration, needs were based on number of students and teachers in need of the respective services (catch-up programs, revised teaching and learning material, psychosocial support, teacher training). Catch up programs were calculated based on the assumption that for the first year of recovery (2025), an estimated 7 hours of catch-up instructions are needed per week, for the entire academic year (28 weeks). For years 2 and 3 (2026-2027), it is assumed that only 25 percent of children would need additional catch-up instruction each year, considering the magnitude of learning losses observed in the sector. For distribution by governorate, needs were quantified by proportion of population in each governorate. ANNEXES 63 Assessment Item  Approach and Assumptions  Data Sources  Limitations The damages assessment only covers the areas of the country most affected by the conflict (covering 1,635 out of the total 3,334 educational institutions in Lebanon). The loss of private sector revenues is likely underestimated as the current estimate does not factor in losses associated with lost fees for private TVET centers and private universities. ENERGY Assessment Item  Approach and Assumptions  Data Sources  Damage  The damages data overall were obtained from EDL for the transmission and EDL; DSPs  distribution assets. Damage costs were assessed on item basis. Losses  The loss data were obtained from EDL, and the analysis performed is based on the EDL data and 14 months covering the period between October 2023 and December 2024. A future accounts; DSPs  projection for the following year covering the period of January 2025 to December 2025 was estimated based on 50 percent losses compared to the first year. Needs The needs were estimated based on the quantified damages of various distribution EDL; DSPs asset classes, with data collected by the DSPs on behalf of EDL. Limitations This assessment does not capture damages to decentralized solar PV systems, which presumably constitutes the highest category of damage in the electricity sector. In the context of Lebanon, where electricity demand is largely met by distributed systems, this is a major limitation. Due to the lack of data, the quantification of damages for solar PV systems proved not feasible and is therefore not included in this report. This should be a subject of future analysis. Similarly, the assessment does not capture the damage to the diesel generators, and their associated networks, which was a primary source of electricity for many communities, businesses and households. Several municipalities in southern Lebanon were still inaccessible to EDL and other subcontractors at the time of data collected performed for this assessment. This in turn limited collection of adequate overall data that would help quantify the damages for the transmission and distribution assets in those areas, nor for the decentralized generation. In this regard, damage may be underestimated. Finally, it is important to acknowledge that the demand of electricity in Lebanon is only partially met by grid services, and that long-term investments are needed to ensure that the service provision in Lebanon goes back to 24 hours per day, which requires important investments in generation assets as well as expanded upgraded transmission and distribution that can accommodate integration for renewable energy generation considered in the future.  ANNEXES 64 A summary of the items identified under each of the five main asset categories for distribution is outlined below: Asset Categories Bill of Quantities List MV/LV Substations Substations 160 KVA  160 kVA Trans. 15-20 kV/410V, HL, Al  L pole as per EDL dwg # 72E205G  Accessories: circuit breakers, disconnect switch meter panels, etc. Substations 250 KVA  250 kVA Trans. 15-20 kV/410V, HL, Al  L pole as per EDL dwg # 72E205G  Accessories: circuit breakers, disconnect switch meter panels, etc. Substations 630 KVA  630 kVA Transformer 11-20 kV/410V  Accessories: circuit breakers, disconnect switch meter panels, etc. 3 x 1000A distribution panel with 6-400A three phase breaker for outgoing feeders  24 kV sectionalizing switch - SF6 gas  24 kV UG transformer protection switch - SF6 gas  Civil works  Substations 1000 KVA  1000 kVA Transformer 11-20 kV/410V  Accessories: circuit Breakers, disconnect switch meter panels, etc. 3 x 1600A distribution panel with 6-400A three phase breaker for outgoing feeders  24 kV sectionalizing switch - SF6 gas  24 kV UG transformer protection switch - SF6 gas  MV Distribution Pole  Network M1 pole,12m as per EDL dwg # 100B96G  M2 pole,12m as per EDL dwg # 100B109A  M3 pole,12m as per EDL dwg # 100B98G  Almelec Cables  Cables Accessories  LV Distribution Poles  Network A1 pole as per EDL dwg # 100B119B  A2 pole as per EDL dwg # 100B119B  Distribution Panels  Bundles Cables  Interface Materials  Meters  Accessories Accessories – Electrical Equipment  UGC Underground Cable ANNEXES 65 ENVIRONMENT & DEBRIS MANAGEMENT Assessment Item  Approach and Assumptions  Data Sources  Baseline  The baseline for the natural resources areas was collected from ESA WorldCover OSM; Satellite Imagery; v2, selecting land cover types that fall into environmental areas. These land Partners’ data  cover types include: forests; shrublands; grasslands; wetlands; bare/sparse Proxy data; Government vegetation; river area; coastline area; protected area. and World Bank data For forests and shrublands in the South and Nabatiyeh governorates, the baseline used was the Land Use and Land Cover (LUC) for 2023 based on the CORINE (Coordination of Information on the Environment) nomenclature, provided by CNRS-L. The baseline for rivers and waterways was collected from OSM and buffered by 1 km to identify river areas. The areas for riverine ecosystem were estimated based on a width of 100 m (50 m from each side of the stream). The areas for coastline ecosystem were estimated based on a width of 100 m. The baseline number of waste collection bins and trucks in each district was made using assumptions based on the number of inhabitants and the quantity of waste generated. The estimates were based on an assumed collection frequency of 3–4 days per week and a filling rate of bins up to 80 percent of their volumes. For simplification in the absence of relevant data, all trucks were assumed to have either 6 or 10 tons capacity while bin volumes are either 240 or 1,100 liters (L), which is in line with the recent solid waste management assessment and roadmap conducted jointly by the MoE and the World Bank. Sorting and composting facilities vary in capacity from 1 ton per day (t/d) to 1,800 t/d (in Karantina) and depending on technology used. Damage  Damage on natural resources was established through the percentage of Normalized Burn Ratio environment areas burned. Burn area (dNBR) index was calculated from Clear- derived from Clear-Sky Sky Landsat images at 30 m resolution and classified into partial damage and Landsat satellite imagery; destroyed burned areas. These burned areas were geospatially intersected KIIs with the full environmental baseline (from July and September for a cumulative view) to determine damaged areas in hectares. For the districts in the South and Nabatiyeh governorates, the data for damaged forests and shrublands was sourced from CNRS-L, which used an adjusted a more granular baseline, increasing the degree of accuracy for these governorates. Damage on SWM was estimated with the following assumptions: Due to the extensive shelling and destruction in the surrounding villages in South Lebanon, it was assumed that 40 percent of waste collection bins and trucks across the affected districts have suffered some level of damage, which has been corroborated through ground verification conducted with local authorities from the affected area. In Baabda district, damage to bins was assumed to be 60 percent and damage to trucks to be 10 percent. In other areas the percentage of damage was accounted for based on the general level of damage in the district. Losses  Losses from ecosystem services encompass losses from ecosystem service Literature review; Proxy provided by the different natural resources (forest, grassland, riverine data  ecosystems, wetland and coastline). It was calculated over a duration of 26 months (14 months as conflict year plus one year) to be consistent with the approach adopted for other sectors in this RDNA, although most of these services will require more than 10 years to be restored. However, contrary to most sectors in this RDNA, there was no 50 percent discount factor used for the second year as recovery after the first year remains minimal. Losses from the SWM sector include the loss of revenues from waste recycling at street and facility levels and additional cost for waste management generated by displaced population in the host communities (at peak) over a period equivalent to one and a half year.  ANNEXES 66 Assessment Item  Approach and Assumptions  Data Sources  Needs Debris calculations from the housing sector were based on the housing sector Literature review; Proxy damage estimates (see section below). The rubble generation ratio was set at data; media reporting; 1.6 tons/m² of built-up area for all districts. The total quantity of rubble was Assumption validated by estimated by multiplying built areas by the number of affected units using CNRS-L  these factors, with damage levels contributing 100 percent for fully destroyed buildings, 40 percent for partially damaged ones, and 10 percent for lightly damaged structures. The conversion from volume (m3) to weight (tons) was based on an average density of 1.6 tons/m3. A factor of five percent was used to account for damages from other sectors. The rubble calculations did not account for underground rubble. The estimated price for rubble removal per ton was calculated by combining the costs of collection and transportation, loading rubble into trucks, establishing and operating six rubble landfills, and setting up and operating six crushing lines. The total cost was then divided by the total quantity of rubble. Limitations It was not feasible to fully assess the damage on natural resources especially in terms of impact on soil, water and air pollution and on SWM in terms of solid waste collection and transportation systems, such as bins and trucks, and facilities due to the lack of ground-truthing. Sustainable rubble management estimate was done at a high level given that accurate numbers depend on the availability of sites for transporting the rubble, distances travelled, size of facilities, and design of available sites HEALTH Assessment Item Approach and Assumptions Data Sources Baseline A mix of sources were used to establish the main health assets by type. Open-source Baseline; Satellite imagery; Field- based data; MoPH data; Inputs from health partners Damage SAR automated analysis of damaged facilities was verified by imagery analysis SAR; Satellite imagery; to confirm partially damaged and destroyed areas and remove false positives Field-based study; MoPH of damage. It was complemented by a field study conducted in South, Bekaa, data Baalbek-Hermel governorates, and Baabda district. The field team consisted of a field manager, an active physician in their field who works closely with NGOs and ministries, and a supporting research team. The team assessed damage and functionality in nine health subsectors on 2,410 health facilities, including 523 medical clinics. The facility baseline was augmented through relevant syndicates like government health resources. Methods included KIIs with locals and facility contacts; field visits; and analysis of social media as well as other PAIs. Field team verification was comprehensive for blood banks, dispensaries, hospitals, laboratories, optometrists, dentists, pharmacies, and social development centers; for these subtypes, the facility baseline was provided by the MoPH. The field team assessed 10 percent of the remaining medical clinic subtypes. ANNEXES 67 Assessment Item Approach and Assumptions Data Sources Loss Losses were assessed through a field survey led on the ground and by phone Literature review; MoPH for a sample of facilities, complemented by data provided by the Ministry of data; Proxy data; 2020 Health. They include: Beirut RDNA a. Additional costs due to increased utilization of health resources for treatment a. Team estimates based of injuries and sicknesses resulting from conflict and displacement. Calculated on MoPH injury severity based on the cost of treatment of injuries as a direct result of the conflict categories. based on the tariffication scheme issued by the MoPH and the injuries data b. Team estimates received from PHEOC and loss of health resources from estimated increased utilization of health services at all levels of care by IDPs; Breakdown of severity c. Team estimates, based of injuries was used as follows: 45 percent minor, 30 percent moderate, 17 on Proxy percent critical requiring surgery, 4 percent severe requiring intensive care without surgery, 2 percent severe requiring one surgery and 2 percent severe requiring multiple surgeries. Losses due to decreased revenue in health facilities rendered inoperable, b. calculated based on average revenue losses incurred by completely destroyed and partially damaged hospitals and PHCCs, considering 90 days required for partially damaged facilities to be operational and 365 days for completely destroyed facilities. c. Losses due to reduced availability of HRH in affected areas: calculated based on number of health personnel killed and injured and estimated disability- adjusted life years (DALYs). DALY is a measure used in global health to estimate the overall burden of disease. It combines both years of life lost due to premature mortality and years lived with disability due to illness or injury. To estimate the economic value of health losses the team used the human capital approach, which estimates the financial loss based on the loss of productivity due to premature death or disability. Needs Needs were quantified as a sum of two categories: Damage data; MoPH costed recovery roadmap Needs for infrastructure reconstruction including reconstruction of infrastructure and rehabilitation of assets. Calculated based on the damage costs with the addition of a 1.5 factor to account for building back better. Needs for service delivery restoration. Calculated based on an itemized approach focused on replenishment of supplies and medicines including vaccines and nutritional supplements, human resources compensation, and financial coverage of health services for the most vulnerable including IDPs. Limitations A number of health assets were not included in the estimation of damage costs, including emergency medical centers, nursing homes, ambulances, mobile clinics, mental health centers, physiotherapy and rehabilitation centers and medical warehouses. The damage status of some health facilities remained unknown given access restrictions. The functionality status information was limited given access restrictions and limitations in data sources. The analysis did not include estimations of losses resulting from disability for those injured who will experience life-long consequences due to data limitations. This limitation also affects the assessment of losses stemming from mental health issues, decreased immunization rates, and other long-term health impacts. Data on disease surveillance was not available, which made it difficult to estimate the change in the incidence of diseases. Estimation of burden of disease, added mortality and mortality for the financial loss exercise were used and adapted from similar exercises conducted in Syria and Yemen. Other detailed assessments by MoPH and health partners are underway, which will likely provide more in- depth information on some of the issues mentioned in this assessment of the health sector. ANNEXES 68 HOUSING Assessment Item  Approach and Assumptions  Data Sources  Baseline  Lebanon’s housing footprint baseline was derived by merging Microsoft ML and OSM CAS; Global building data, then mapping these onto administrative areas. Housing categories and Urban Heights counts were aligned with Lebanese government data (CAS, 2018–2019) to reflect unit Footprint; KIIs; types and distribution. PAI; Microsoft ML and OSM Inventory ratios were applied to the housing stock for each district. Unit costs were building estimated based on KIIs and PAI; these are likely to be conservative estimates. The databases following housing typology was used: house, villa, apartment building, informal. Apartment buildings were assumed to have 16 housing units in Baabda district, eight for Beirut, six for Aley district, and three for all other administrative areas covered, to reflect variable urban density.  Damage  In high-intensity, densely populated zones (Beirut, Tyre), high-resolution imagery SAR; high- provided detailed assessments; elsewhere, radar (SAR) analysis was corroborated with resolution high-res images. Final damage determinations relied on side-by-side pre-/post-event satellite comparisons to assess roof integrity, structural shifts, debris, and blast impacts. The imagery assessment was further refined by cross-referencing incidents from the ACLED and (30-50 cm); WNEP databases, excluding outlier districts with no recorded incidents.  KIIs; CNRS-L analysis Data collected this way was triangulated with data collected by CNRS-L and adjusted accordingly. CNRS-L’s method for the damage assessment used a combination of high- resolution satellite imagery, Geospatial Imagery Analysis, and extensive field verification where possible. Damage costs were estimated based on building physical status (light damage, partial damage or complete destruction), the replacement value of the asset class (unit cost) and additional damage cost such as personal effects and landscaping for houses and villas. The replacement values only include construction costs before the conflict started; they don’t cover any land value and profit margins and can therefore not be compared with advertised real estate values.  Losses  Losses in the housing sector were only attributed to destroyed and partially damaged Field-based units, under the assumption that lightly damaged homes remain habitable. A linear data; Literature discount rate was applied over time to reflect the growing number of damaged units review  and displaced populations. This approach captures the progressive escalation in financial losses as the conflict’s effects unfold. Losses considered the following four categories: rental revenue, rent expenditure for displaced owners, domestic workers wage, and service providers for maintenance. Rental revenue: calculated based on an average monthly rent and the estimated share of renter households for each housing type.  Rent expenditure for displaced owners: derived using IOM DTM percentages for households in collective shelters to approximate those incurring additional rental costs (others may reside with relatives/friends at no extra expense).  Domestic worker wages: estimated from the average number of domestic staff employed per asset type and the prevailing salary levels, reflecting lost income for housekeeping and gardening staff.  Service providers for maintenance: accounts for a typical monthly outlay on non-fixed expenses (e.g., minor repairs, plumbing, painting) for each building type, recognizing foregone revenues for tradespeople due to uninhabitable or partially inhabited units.  ANNEXES 69 Assessment Item  Approach and Assumptions  Data Sources  Needs  Four main needs categories have been identified: repair and reconstruction; Field-based technical inspection and engineering studies and designs; institutional and regulatory data; Literature arrangements; and support for temporary housing. review  Repair and reconstruction: covers the structural repair or full reconstruction of damaged units, along with internal items and landscaping. It incorporates a premium factor of 1.3 for structural work (excludes personal effects or outdoor facilities) that considers building back better, security premiums, inflation, and additional construction costs due to scarcity of labor and materials.  Technical inspection and engineering studies and designs: estimated at 10 percent of the damage cost, proportional to each damage category. Only applies to partially damaged and destroyed units. Follows the same timeline as repair/reconstruction. Institutional and regulatory arrangements: allocates a lump sum of US$600,000 per district, distributed 15 percent for year 0–1, 35 percent for years 1–3, and 50 percent for year 3+. Covers capacity building, policy frameworks, and governance improvements.  Support for temporary housing: applies a monthly allowance for households whose partially damaged or destroyed units are not yet rehabilitated, based on a reconstruction completion timeline for when units become habitable again aligned with the repair and reconstruction timeline.  Limitations This assessment depends on broad assumptions about unit size, construction costs, and damage levels, which can vary widely across regions and building types. The limited granularity of baseline data—especially regarding informal housing and multi-unit apartment complexes—may lead to under- or overestimations of total damage. Likewise, the categorization of destroyed, partially damaged, and lightly damaged units is based on indicative percentage thresholds rather than detailed structural assessments. As a result, potential disparities in the actual condition of individual units, as well as variations in rental markets, domestic labor arrangements, and local maintenance practices, are not fully captured. MUNICIPAL & PUBLIC SERVICES Assessment Item  Approach and Assumptions  Data Sources  Baseline  The baseline was established through ground-based surveys for six districts, Ground-based surveys, and complemented by additional damage from UNDP. The baseline included 472 UNDP. January 2025. assets covering community facility, community market, courthouse, fire station, From Crisis to Recovery: municipality building, police, post office, public library, public park, and sport Local Authorities facility.   Confronting Post-War Realities in Lebanon Rapid Impact Assessment. Damage  Damage was assessed using SAR and high-resolution imagery for those assets SAR; Very high-resolution identified in the imagery frames for damage. This was followed by validation satellite imagery (30 cm); of damage and functionality from ground-based teams within conflict-affected KIIs  areas. Strategic field team assessments were conducted in 254 geographic areas of South Lebanon, on 487 municipal services facilities. Methods include KIIs with locals; field visits; and analysis of social media as well as other publicly available sources of information. Damage and functionality calls from the field team assessment were used to supplement and inform the imagery analysis. Damage costs were estimated based on physical status (partial damage or complete destruction) and the replacement value of the asset class (unit cost). The replacement values only include construction costs; they don’t cover any land value and profit margins and can therefore not be compared with advertised real estate values. ANNEXES 70 Assessment Item  Approach and Assumptions  Data Sources  Losses Losses were assessed with the following assumptions: Field-based data; Literature review; KIIs  Revenue loss from property tax: households are required to pay municipalities 6.5 percent of the property’s rental value annually. This was calculated by taking the amount of impacted housing units (completely destroyed and partially damaged), multiplied by their rental value (10 percent of baseline value) and 6.5 percent. Revenue loss from commercial tax: commercial facilities are required to pay municipalities 8.5 percent of the commercial property’s rental value annually. This was calculated by taking the amount of impacted commercial facilities (completely destroyed and partially damaged), multiplied by their rental value and 8.5 percent. Revenue loss from utility companies: municipalities receive 10 percent of electricity, water, internet and telephone bills. This was calculated taking into account damaged housing and commercial assets. Revenue loss from use of facilities: Assets belonging to the municipality are often rented out for revenue, and their non-functionality would mean loss of revenue to the municipality. This was calculated using community markets, public parks and community facilities.  Job losses in daily workers: it is assumed that all public sector workers are still employed and will continue to be paid, but daily workers will be affected as they are outsourced. This was calculated using functionality assessment of assets.  Needs  For infrastructure reconstruction, needs were derived from the damage Standard PDNA assessment, applying a 1.5 factor for building back better. For service delivery methodology  restoration, a 20 percent premium was added to ensure operating expenditures of municipal and public services is taken into account. Re-establishment and strengthening of governance and TA is accounted as 10 percent of service delivery restoration needs. A 1.5 factor was applied for building back better, taking into account the current context of Municipal and Public Services in Lebanon.  Limitations Damage costs may be higher than the assessment as the baseline was limited to nine districts, and therefore damage assessment is limited in geographical scope. Services such as solid waste collection, in which the municipalities are responsible for, have been calculated under the environment sector. Given that municipalities receive a major percentage of their operating expenditures from the central government, the current assessment does not take into account any overall spillover impacts on central government and transfers to municipalities (including the IMF), such as displacement impact on additional own-source revenue, nor on central government transfers, which may have been reduced due to the impact of the conflict nationwide. In addition, it is assumed that public sector workers remain employed and continue to receive their salaries from the central government. This is informed by interviews with key informants who confirmed that municipalities remained operational despite municipality buildings being closed. Losses to utilities only take into account the impact from the housing and commerce sectors, and do not extend to other sectors that have not been assessed in this phase (such as health, education, etc.). Finally, losses do not take into account additional operating expenditures on municipalities to address urgent repairs or needs of displaced populations, as it is assumed that municipalities (i) are already struggling with their current budget allocations and would cover these additional expenditures using existing resources; and (ii) rely heavily on external assistance including development projects, NGOs, and international organizations to address some of their needs. ANNEXES 71 TRANSPORT Assessment Item  Approach and Assumptions  Data Sources  Baseline  The baseline covers the following asset types: International Roads Open-Source Baseline, Satellite (km), Primary Roads (km), Secondary Roads (km), Tertiary Roads imagery and Field Based Data (km), Bridges (m2) and Tunnels (km). Damage  Damage was assessed using SAR and high-resolution imagery for SAR, Satellite imagery, and Field those assets identified in the imagery frames for damage. This was verification. And team estimates for followed by validation of damage and functionality from ground- road rehabilitation unit costs per based teams within conflict-affected areas. Strategic field team asset type assessments were conducted in 254 geographic areas of south Lebanon; all facilities from the baseline were assessed for damage and functionality. Methods include KIIs with locals; field visits; and analysis of social media as well as other publicly available sources of information. Damage and functionality calls from the field team assessment were used to supplement and inform the imagery findings for integrated analysis. Damage costs were estimated based on physical status (partial damage or complete destruction) and the replacement value of the asset class (unit cost).  Losses To calculate the losses, an accessibility analysis to the main Road network: CNRS-L (from agglomerations was conducted pre- and post-conflict using previous work on the WB Climate population data from World Pop, the road network from CNRS-L, and Country Development Report). Open a shapefile of damaged road assets from Ipsos. The delays resulting Street Map, CDR, and high-resolution from traffic disruptions were estimated for the populations within satellite imageries. 30 minutes of the main agglomerations, and the marginal vehicle Average road speeds: Tariaak Mobile operating costs due to lengthy detours were estimated for the Application and Google maps. populations within 15 km of the agglomerations. The agglomerations of interest in the affected areas were extracted from the National Damaged road assets: Shapefile Physical Master Plan of the Lebanese Territory. The accessibility received from Ipsos. analysis post-conflict assumes that completely destroyed roads Value of Time: Saroufim and Otayek are not functional and therefore not accessible and that the speeds (2019). Analysis and interpret road on damaged roads are halved. The loss calculation also assumes traffic congestion costs in Lebanon. one trip per individual over 220 working days per year, an average value of time of US$3.03 per hour, and a vehicle operating cost of Vehicle Operating Cost: MoE/UNDP US$0.106 per passenger-km for light vehicles. The overlaps between (2015). Mobility Cost: A Case Study for catchment areas relative to neighboring agglomerations have been Lebanon. Beirut, Lebanon. excluded to avoid double counting.  Air traffic volumes: Beirut To calculate the losses in the aviation sector, the difference in air traffic International Airport through volumes between 2023 and 2024 was multiplied by the embarkation the Ministry of Public Works and (departure) tax (US$35) and the API / PNR Security Charge (US$0.4). Transport. Needs  Needs were derived from damage numbers. A build back better factor Standard PDNA methodology  of 50 percent was applied to the rehabilitation costs per asset type to enhance infrastructure resilience against earthquakes, climate change and natural disasters.  Limitations The damage assessment for the road sector focuses on international, primary, secondary, and tertiary roads, as well as bridges and tunnels, and excludes damage to vehicles (light vehicles, buses, trucks, etc.), road traffic furniture (traffic lights, signage, etc.) or facility infrastructure (drainage or protection structures, etc.). ANNEXES 72 WATER, WASTEWATER & IRRIGATION Assessment Item  Approach and Assumptions  Data Sources  Baseline  Open web sources; Partners’ data Damage  Imagery analysis confirmed partially damaged and destroyed areas and SAR; Satellite imagery; calibrated false positives of damage identified by SAR automated analysis. Field survey SAR and AI analysis was further augmented through field team verification on a representative sample of facilities. Strategic field team assessments were conducted in 50 percent of the geographic scope, distributed across districts of the southern governorate. A census was conducted for water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) facilities in the southern Lebanon areas of interest, collecting functionality/ damage assessment for more than 80 percent of the baseline of WASH facilities. Methods included KIIs with locals; field visits; and analysis of social media as well as other PAIs. Losses a. Losses induced by an increase in operating costs due to the need to conduct a. Team estimates emergency repairs and frequent electricity cuts were calculated assuming b. Housing sector RDNA  at a 20 percent increase in the costs of operation. c. UNICEF 2022  b. Revenue losses were estimated based on the number of household units destroyed on each of the areas of service of each of the water establishments. d. Water establishment This estimation assumes that all houses destroyed were subscribers of diagnosis reports the public water distribution network and stopped paying the tariffs for 26 (https://water-reform. months (discounted at 50 percent for the last 12 months). com/en/resources/ ) c. Producer surplus loss is calculated for the water establishments that lose e. Water establishment the revenue from household units destroyed completely and thus would diagnosis reports. have to resort to tanker water purchases at a much higher rate than the (https://water-reform. public network for the 14 months of the conflict, and another 12 months com/en/resources/ )  discounted at 50 percent. The rate of tanker water used is US$5.85/m3 and a decrease in the consumption is assumed as 32 percent from the water establishment supply of 1 m3 per household per day (220 L/household). This decrease amounts to 150 L per person per day, for a household size on 4.5, which is the basic right. d. Revenues of the four water establishments was estimated on the basis of the number of subscribers, a “lump sum” tariff of US$150 per year for 1 m3/day supply and available collection rates for each of the water establishments. In addition, it factors in a 10 percent tax paid by the utilities to the municipalities. e. Baseline operating costs were estimated based on the estimation of current revenues, and the revenues and operating costs of each of the water establishments in 2020. This estimation is based on the assumption that the water establishments have managed to keep similar operating expenses to revenue ratio since 2020 despite the drop in the Lebanese pound through a series of consecutive tariff increases with minor impact on the subscription rate. Needs  a. Reconstruction needs were estimated calculation 1.5 times the cost of the a. RDNA guidelines  damages.  b. Housing sector data and b. Service recovery needs were estimated based on the estimations of yearly water establishment increase of operating costs for service restoration (based on a 20 percent diagnosis reports increase of yearly operating costs) and the estimation of the needs to rebuild (https://water-reform. revenue streams (based on the revenue losses resulting from the destruction com/en/resources/ )  of households). Both variables were discounted by 30 percent for the second year of reconstruction and an additional 30 percent for year 3. ANNEXES 73 Assessment Item  Approach and Assumptions  Data Sources  Limitations Limitations include insufficient data on irrigation networks, the absence of a pre-conflict baseline, challenges in assessing underground networks for both water supply and sewerage, and economic losses from tanker dependence and private sector disruptions. The assessment uses data from satellite imageries, Ministry of Energy and Water data, ongoing assessments, and a qualitative review of public reports. Ground-truthing data assessment will enhance damage estimates and reveal the full extent of damages to infrastructures such as wells, water towers, reservoirs, drainage, sanitation, water supply, sewerage, and irrigation networks. Understanding the extent of real infrastructure damage, and the functionality loss to water and wastewater treatment plants will also help provide accurate cost estimates based on their treatment capacities. Additionally, there is limited information regarding the extent of the freshwater sources of pollution. Continuous monitoring by the water establishments and assessment of the required treatment are necessary but remain challenging given the nature of remote-sensing data without on ground measurements. Finally, investing in water management capacity, implementing water resource management studies, and monitoring water quality are essential steps towards effective reconstruction and ensuring water availability for drinking and irrigation.  ANNEXES 74 Annex B: Average Unit Sizes and Unit Costs The following average unit sizes and unit costs were used in this assessment. These were obtained through data triangulation from different sources, including PAI, KIIs, information shared by government and development partners, a private construction company in Lebanon, the Lebanese Order of Engineers and Architects (OEA), and proxy data from other assessments conducted in countries with similar geographic and socioeconomic contexts. How to read this table – examples: -Citrus orchard fields produce on average 27,400 kg of citrus per ha and per harvest cycle, which can be sold at a price of US$0.7 per kg on average. - Revised teaching and learning materials for students are estimated to cost US$100 per student on average. - Community markets are estimated to be 200m2 in average size and are valued at US$199,000 per market. Unit of Unit Cost Asset Unit Size Measurement (US$) Source(s) Agriculture & Food Security Banana plantations (plants) N/A ha $1,941 KIIs; Team estimates Banana plantations (harvest) 10,000 kg/ha kg $0.7 KIIs Citrus orchard (plants) N/A ha US$1,000 KIIs; Team estimates Citrus orchard (harvest) 27,400 kg/ha kg $0.7 KIIs Fruit orchard (plants) N/A ha $2,250 KIIs Fruit orchard (harvest) 35,000 kg/ha kg $1.4 KIIs Mixed orchards and fields (plants) N/A ha $2,475 KIIs Mixed orchards and fields 50,000 kg/ha kg $0.9 KIIs (harvest) Olive groves (plants) N/A ha $3,400 KIIs; Team estimates Olive groves (harvest) 650 kg/ha kg $4 KIIs Potatoes and vegetables (seeds) N/A ha $2,700 KIIs; Team estimates Potatoes and vegetables (harvest) 55,000 kg/ha kg $0.5 KIIs; Team estimates Tobacco (plants) N/A ha $4,300 KIIs Tobacco (harvest) 1,000 kg/ha kg $10 KIIs Vineyard (plants) N/A ha $3,823 KIIs Vineyard (harvest) 5,000 kg/ha kg $1.2 KIIs Wheat and barley (seeds) N/A ha $1,606 KIIs; Team estimates Wheat and barley (harvest) 3,500 kg/ha kg $0.26 KIIs; Team estimates ANNEXES 75 Unit of Unit Cost Asset Unit Size Measurement (US$) Source(s) Chicken (animal) N/A Head $3.50 Syndicate of poultry producers Chicken (broiler) N/A Head $6.50 Syndicate of poultry producers Cattle (animal) N/A Head $1,000 KIIs Cattle (milk) 10,000 L/year L $1 KIIs Ducks (animal) N/A Head $20 KIIs Ducks (for consumption) N/A Head $30 KIIs Goats (animal) N/A Head $100 KIIs Goats (milk) 575 L/year L $1 Litterature review71 Horses (animal) N/A Head $3,000 Team estimates Pigs (animal) N/A Head $300 Team estimates Sheep (animal) N/A Head $300 KIIs Sheep (milk) 300 L/year L $1 KIIs Government buildings (including N/A Unit $100,000 FAO extension and research stations) Agriculture vocational schools N/A Unit $100,000 FAO Large size tractors N/A Unit $80,000 FAO Medium size tractors N/A Unit $10,000 FAO Manual tractors N/A Unit $850 KIIs Combine harvester N/A Unit $25,000 FAO Olive harvester N/A Unit $1,000 Internet research Greenhouses N/A ha $87,500 FAO Greenhouses 102,058 kg/ha kg $1.30 KIIs; Team estimates Wheat crushers N/A Unit $3,000 FAO Wheat crushers 90 day/year Daily rate $100 KIIs; Team estimates Carob presses N/A Unit $40,000 FAO Carob presses 90 day/year Daily rate $50 KIIs; Team estimates Olive presses N/A Unit $110,000 FAO Olive presses 90 day/year Daily rate $100 KIIs; Team estimates Poultry farm N/A m2 $300 Syndicate of poultry producers 71  Hosri C., E. Tabet, and M. Nehme. 2016. “Goat and sheep products value chain analysis in Lebanon.” In The Value Chains of Mediterranean Sheep and Goat Products: Organisation of the Industry, Marketing Strategies, Feeding and Production Systems, edited by M. Napoléone, Ben Salem, J.P. Boutonnet, A. López-Francos, and D. Gabiña, 61–66. Zaragoza: CIHEAM. OOT Cluster. September 8, 2022. “Gout Blanc: QOOT Lebanon Agrifood Innovation Cluster.” QOOT. https://qoot.org/member/gout-blanc/ (Accessed August 16, 2024). ANNEXES 76 Unit of Unit Cost Asset Unit Size Measurement (US$) Source(s) On-farm irrigation systems N/A Unit $6,000 KII; Team estimates (pumps, sprinklers, drip, on-farm canals) Fishing boats N/A Unit $15,000 KII; Team estimates Aquaculture pond N/A Unit $25,000 KIIs; Team estimates Aquaculture pond 500 fish/pond Fish $10 KIIs; Team estimates Beehives N/A Unit $165 FAO Beehives (production) 7 kg/beehive kg $17.50 KIIs; Team estimates Food security needs 1,653,991 Number of $449 WFP persons Agriculture labor 23,849 Number of $2,400 KIIs; Team estimates Laborer Animal feed 3,692,764 kg $0.20 KIIs; Team estimates Commerce, Industry & Tourism Food and beverage  457 m2 $200 KIIs Light manufacturing  450 m2 $1,100 KIIs Heavy manufacturer  462 m2 $1,450 KIIs Energy  201 m2 $700 KIIs Repair (vehicles and motorbikes)  396 m2 $900 KIIs Retail, wholesale, and trade Retail 417 m2 $650 KIIs Petrol and fuel retail  421 m2 $1,000 KIIs Wholesale  454 m2 $1,150 KIIs Petrol and fuel wholesale  441 m2 $1,000 KIIs Car wholesale and retail  439 m2 $1,300 KIIs Warehouse  388 m2 $500 KIIs Trade logistics  644 m2 $700 KIIs Hospitality Restaurants/cafes/bars  341 m2 $1,150 KIIs Car rental  437 m2 $1,200 KIIs Short-term accommodation  194 m2 $700 KIIs Other tourism services  185 m2 $700 KIIs Transport operator  244 m2 $550 KIIs Sports center  397 m2 $800 KIIs ANNEXES 77 Unit of Unit Cost Asset Unit Size Measurement (US$) Source(s) Amusement parks and 194 m2 $1,100 KIIs entertainment facilities  Professional services Management/ accounting/ other 317 m2 $700 KIIs office services Architecture and design  309 m2 $750 KIIs Veterinary  627 m2 $800 KIIs Hairdresser  424 m2 $750 KIIs Media production and photography  708 m2 $900 KIIs Technology  373 m2 $600 KIIs Telecommunications  272 m2 $1,000 KIIs ICT  309 m2 $700 KIIs Services  462 m2 $700 KIIs Education Public schools  664 m2  $1,050 Satellite imagery; Team estimates  Private schools  776 m2  $1,200 Satellite imagery; Team estimates  Universities  1,220 m2  $1,300 Satellite imagery; Team estimates  Operating hub schools (temporary N/A Number of $80 Team estimates learning space) – public and displaced private school students students Yearly private school tuition fees N/A Number of $4,000 Team estimates students Hourly cost of catch-up programs 7 hours/week, Number of $1 Team estimates for 26 weeks/ students year Revised teaching and learning N/A Number of $100 Team estimates materials (students) students Psychosocial support N/A Number of $100 Team estimates students Teacher training (public) N/A Number of $50 Team estimates teachers Revised teaching and learning N/A Number of $100 Team estimates materials (teachers) teachers Psychosocial support (teachers) N/A Number of $100 Team estimates teachers ANNEXES 78 Unit of Unit Cost Asset Unit Size Measurement (US$) Source(s) Environment & Debris Management Riverine ecosystem  N/A ha $33,000 Proxy (updated Gaza RDNA)   Riverine ecosystem services (per N/A ha $2,513 World Bank. 2025. Cost of month)  Environmental Degradation for 2023 in Lebanon.  Washington, DC: World Bank. Forest including shrubland  N/A ha $2,390 Proxy (Previous Gaza and Libya RDNAs)  Forest ecosystem services (per N/A ha $123 World Bank. 2025. Cost of month)  Environmental Degradation for 2023 in Lebanon.  Washington, DC: World Bank. Wetland ecosystem  N/A ha $33,000 Proxy (Gaza RDNA)  Wetland ecosystem (per month)  N/A ha $1,378 Proxy (Updated Gaza RDNA)  Coastline  N/A ha $232,700 Proxy (updated Gaza RDNA)  Coastline services (per month)  N/A ha $2,230 Proxy (Updated Gaza RDNA)  Grassland ecosystem  N/A ha $260 Proxy (Updated Gaza RDNA)  Grassland ecosystem services N/A ha $18.42 World Bank. 2025. Cost of (per month)  Environmental Degradation for 2023 in Lebanon.  Washington, DC: World Bank. Field assessment of damaged N/A ha $50 Proxy (Updated Gaza RDNA) forests and shrublands Reforestation of damaged N/A ha $7,200 Proxy (Updated Gaza RDNA) forests and shrublands including maintenance for 3 years Restoration of affected riverine N/A ha $4,000 Proxy (Updated Gaza RDNA) ecosystems Restoration of affected marine N/A ha $232,700 Proxy (Updated Gaza RDNA) ecosystem and coastline Restoration of affected grassland N/A ha $260 Proxy (Updated Gaza RDNA) Soil sampling and testing  N/A Number of $300 Team estimates tests  Collection trucks  6 tons sized Unit $35,000 Team estimates  truck Collection trucks  10 tons sized Unit $60,000 Team estimates  truck Waste bins  240 L Unit $50 Team estimates  Waste bins  1,100 L Unit $300 Team estimates  Treatment facility  Capacity of Unit $400,000 Team estimates  10 t/d ANNEXES 79 Unit of Unit Cost Asset Unit Size Measurement (US$) Source(s) Treatment facility Capacity of Unit $3,750,000 Team estimates  250 t/d Sustainable rubble management  N/A Ton $6.0 Team estimates  Sanitary landfill  1,000,000 m3 Unit 3,500,000 Team estimates  Hazardous waste cell  5,000 m3 Unit $2,500,000 Team estimates  Health Private medical clinic 70 m2 $1,200 Based on discussions with health partners and international benchmark for construction of private medical clinic with addition of medical equipment Dental clinic 100 m2 $2,000 Based on discussions with health partners and international benchmark for construction of private medical clinic with addition of dental equipment Dispensary 70 m2 $900 Based on UNICEF study estimating CapEx for PHCC adjusted for dispensary (as 50 percent of PHCC cost) PHCC 253 m2 $1,700 Based on PoB RDNA and UNICEF study estimating CapEx for PHCC with markup Hospital 2,300 m2 $3,000 Average size based on Karantina hospital size. Unit cost based on discussions with health partners and PoB RDNA estimates Laboratory 300 m2 $1,700 Based on discussions with health partners and consultation with laboratory owners in Lebanon in 2020 with addition of equipment Pharmacy 100 m2 $1,000 Based on discussions with health partners and consultation with Order of Pharmacists in Lebanon in 2020 with markdown (included only some medicines as not all were non-viable) EMS center 300 m2 $800 Based on dispensary unit cost estimate with mark down Optometrist 70 m2 $1,200 Based on medical clinic estimates SDC 253 m2 $1,700 Based on PHCC estimates Average cost of treatment – minor N/A N/A $50 MoPH tariffs injury Average cost of treatment – N/A N/A $250 MoPH tariffs moderate injury Average cost of treatment – N/A N/A $1,200 MoPH tariffs critical injury requiring surgery ANNEXES 80 Unit of Unit Cost Asset Unit Size Measurement (US$) Source(s) Average cost of treatment - critical N/A N/A $1,200 MoPH tariffs injury requiring intensive care without surgery Average cost of treatment – N/A N/A $2,400 MoPH tariffs severe injury requiring one surgery Average cost of treatment – N/A N/A $3,600 MoPH tariffs severe injury requiring multiple surgeries Average revenue per hospital bed N/A N/A $1,875 Team estimates based on proxy (PoB per day RDNA) Average revenue per PHCC per N/A N/A $1,250 Team estimates based on proxy (PoB day RDNA) Housing House (replacement cost, just 200 m2 m2 $450 OEA (Commissioning Supplement - construction) Building Classification Table, Building Commissioning Guide and Minimum Engineering Fee Allowances); Team estimates; UN-Habitat Villa (replacement cost, just 300 m2 m2 $600 OEA (Commissioning Supplement - construction) Building Classification Table, Building Commissioning Guide and Minimum Engineering Fee Allowances); Team estimates; UN-Habitat Apartment (unit) (replacement 120 m2 m2 $400 OEA (Commissioning Supplement - cost, just construction) – other Building Classification Table, Building districts Commissioning Guide and Minimum Engineering Fee Allowances); Team estimates; UN-Habitat Informal (replacement cost, just 60 m2 m2 $300 Team estimates; UN-Habitat construction) House (monthly rent) N/A m2 $450 KIIs; Team estimates Luxury Villa (monthly rent) N/A m2 $1,000 KIIs; Team estimates Apartment (unit) (monthly rent) N/A m2 $300 KIIs; Team estimates Informal (monthly rent) N/A m2 N/A KIIs; Team estimates House (monthly maintenance) N/A m2 $50 KIIs; Team estimates Villa (monthly maintenance) N/A m2 $100 KIIs; Team estimates Apartment (unit) (monthly N/A m2 $25 KIIs; Team estimates maintenance) Informal (monthly maintenance) N/A m2 0 KIIs; Team estimates House (employed persons monthly 1 m2 $200 Team estimates wage) Villa (employed persons monthly 2 m2 $300 Team estimates wage) Apartment (unit) (employed 0.5 m2 $200 Team estimates persons monthly wage) ANNEXES 81 Unit of Unit Cost Asset Unit Size Measurement (US$) Source(s) Municipal & Public Services Community facility  250 m2 Unit $192,500 OEA (Commissioning Supplement - Building Classification Table, Building Commissioning Guide and Minimum Engineering Fee Allowances); Team estimates  Community market  200 m2 Unit $99,000 OEA (Commissioning Supplement - Building Classification Table, Building Commissioning Guide and Minimum Engineering Fee Allowances); Team estimates  Courthouse  200 m2 Unit $154,000 OEA (Commissioning Supplement - Building Classification Table, Building Commissioning Guide and Minimum Engineering Fee Allowances); Team estimates  Fire station  180 m2 Unit $408,000 OEA (Commissioning Supplement - Building Classification Table, Building Commissioning Guide and Minimum Engineering Fee Allowances); Team estimates  Municipality building  230 m2 Unit $177,100 OEA (Commissioning Supplement - Building Classification Table, Building Commissioning Guide and Minimum Engineering Fee Allowances); Team estimates  Police  350 m2 Unit $269,500 OEA (Commissioning Supplement - Building Classification Table, Building Commissioning Guide and Minimum Engineering Fee Allowances); Team estimates  Post office  750 m2 Unit $577,500 OEA (Commissioning Supplement - Building Classification Table, Building Commissioning Guide and Minimum Engineering Fee Allowances); Team estimates  Public library  355 m2 Unit $244,950 OEA (Commissioning Supplement - Building Classification Table, Building Commissioning Guide and Minimum Engineering Fee Allowances); Team estimates  Public park  300 m2 Unit $31,050 OEA (Commissioning Supplement - Building Classification Table, Building Commissioning Guide and Minimum Engineering Fee Allowances); Team estimates  Sport facility  300 m2 Unit $465,750 OEA (Commissioning Supplement - Building Classification Table, Building Commissioning Guide and Minimum Engineering Fee Allowances); Team estimates  ANNEXES 82 Unit of Unit Cost Asset Unit Size Measurement (US$) Source(s) Transport International roads  N/A km $900,000 Team estimates  Primary roads  N/A km $800,000 Team estimates  Secondary roads  N/A km $400,000 Team estimates  Tertiary roads  N/A km $200,000 Team estimates  Bridges  N/A km $80,000,000 Team estimates  Tunnels  N/A km $45,000,000 Team estimates  Water, Wastewater & Irrigation Water supply and sanitation Pumping station (drinking water)  N/A Unit $2,500,000 Proxy (Beirut RDNA, Gaza RDNA) Pumping station (sewage)  N/A Unit $1,545,116 Proxy (Beirut RDNA, Gaza RDNA) Wastewater treatment plant  N/A Unit $30,000,000 Proxy (Beirut RDNA, Gaza RDNA) Water pump stations  N/A Unit $2,500,000.00 Proxy (Beirut RDNA, Gaza RDNA) Water reservoir  N/A Unit $3,500,000 Proxy (Beirut RDNA, Gaza RDNA) Community cistern  N/A Unit $35,000 Proxy (Beirut RDNA, Gaza RDNA) Water spring  N/A Unit $50,000 Proxy (Beirut RDNA, Gaza RDNA) Water tower  N/A Unit $9,900,000 Proxy (Beirut RDNA, Gaza RDNA) Water treatment plant  N/A Unit $40,000,000 Proxy (Beirut RDNA, Gaza RDNA) Water well  N/A Unit $37,871 Proxy (Beirut RDNA, Gaza RDNA) Irrigation Irrigation canals N/A km $300,000 Consultation with experts  Drains N/A km $30,000 Consultation with experts  Networks N/A km $200,000 Consultation with experts  ANNEXES 83 Annex C: Maps and Figures Figure C1: Agriculture & Food Security sector aggregated losses per district Source: Map generated for the World Bank, Ipsos ANNEXES 84 Figure C2: Damaged Commerce, Industry & Tourism sector establishments Source: Map generated for the World Bank, Ipsos ANNEXES 85 Figure C3: Lebanon return movements Source: Map generated for the World Bank, Ipsos ANNEXES 86 Figure C4: Damaged Education sector facilities Source: Map generated for the World Bank, Ipsos ANNEXES 87 Figure C5: Damage to Health sector facilities Source: Map generated for the World Bank, Ipsos ANNEXES 88 Figure C6: Housing sector damage: percentage of damaged residential buildings at municipality level Source: Map generated for the World Bank, Ipsos ANNEXES 89 Figure C7: Pre and post-conflict accessibility: travel time to nearest agglomeration ANNEXES 90 ANNEXES 91 Figure C8: Transport sector impacted Roads and Tunnels Source: Maps generated for the World Bank, Ipsos ANNEXES 92 Figure C9: Water, Wastewater & Irrigation sector functionality and damage ANNEXES 93 Source: Map generated for the World Bank, Ipsos ANNEXES