FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: PAD00213 INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT ON A PROPOSED GRANT FROM THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY IN THE AMOUNT OF US$13.49 MILLION WITH CO-FINANCING FROM THE IRAQ REFORM, RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION FUND IN THE AMOUNT OF US$5 MILLION TO THE REPUBLIC OF IRAQ FOR INTEGRATED PERSISTENT ORGANIC POLLUTANTS (POPS) AND CHEMICAL HOTSPOTS MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P178935) JANUARY 29, 2025 Environment, Natural Resources & the Blue Economy Middle East And North Africa This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective {January 1, 2025}) Currency Unit = US$ 1309.998 IQD = US$1 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 Regional Vice President: Ousmane Dione Regional Director: Meskerem Brhane Country Director: Jean-Christophe Carret Practice Manager: Maria Sarraf Task Team Leader(s): Harinath Sesha Appalarajugari, Ahmed Ali ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CPF Country Partnership Framework EHS Environment, Health, and Safety ESCP Environmental and Social Commitment Plan ESF Environmental and Social Framework ESS Environmental and Social Standards FM Financial Management GA Grant Agreement GAP Gender Action Plan GEF Global Environment Facility GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas GM Grievance Mechanism GoI Government of Iraq GRS Grievance Redress Service IFC International Finance Corporation IFR Interim Financial Report IPF Investment Project Financing IPOPs Industrial Persistent Organic Pollutants IQD Iraqi Dinar I3RF Iraq Reform Recovery Reconstruction Fund KRI Kurdistan Region of Iraq M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MoA Ministry of Agriculture MoElec Ministry of Electricity MoEn Ministry of Environment MoO Ministry of Oil NDCs Nationally Determined Contributions NIP National Implementation Plan NPCSM National Program on Contaminated Sites Management OPs Obsolete Pesticides PCB Polychlorinated Biphenyls PDO Project Development Objective PFS Project Financial Statement PMU Project Management Unit POM Project Operations Manual POPs Persistent Organic Pollutants PPSD Project Procurement Strategy for Development PSC Project Steering Committee SEA/SH Sexual Exploitation and Abuse and Sexual Harassment SDGs Sustainable Development Goals STEP Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement TPMA Third Party Monitoring Agency UNDP United Nations Development Program UNEP United Nations Environment Program UPOPs Unintentional Persistent Organic Pollutants WBG World Bank Group The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) TABLE OF CONTENTS DATASHEET ........................................................................................................................... ii I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT ...................................................................................................... 1 A. Country Context ................................................................................................................................ 1 B. Sectoral and Institutional Context .................................................................................................... 1 C. Relevance to Higher Level Objectives ............................................................................................... 3 II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION.................................................................................................... 4 A. Project Development Objective ........................................................................................................ 4 B. Project Components ......................................................................................................................... 4 C. Project Beneficiaries ......................................................................................................................... 8 D. Results Chain..................................................................................................................................... 9 E. Rationale for Bank Involvement and Role of Partners ...................................................................... 9 F. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design ..................................................................... 10 III. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS ............................................................................ 10 A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements ........................................................................... 10 B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements ......................................................................... 11 C. Sustainability ................................................................................................................................... 12 IV. PROJECT APPRAISAL SUMMARY ................................................................................... 12 A. Technical, Economic and Financial Analysis (if applicable) ............................................................. 12 Paris Alignment and Climate Change................................................................................ 14 Gender .............................................................................................................................. 15 Citizen Engagement .......................................................................................................... 15 Private Sector Engagement............................................................................................... 16 B. Fiduciary .......................................................................................................................................... 16 C. Legal Operational Policies ............................................................................................................... 18 D. Environmental and Social ............................................................................................................... 18 V. GRIEVANCE REDRESS SERVICES ..................................................................................... 19 VI. KEY RISKS...................................................................................................................... 19 VII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING ................................................................... 22 ANNEX 1: Implementation Arrangements and Support Plan & Economic Analysis ................ 27 i The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padbasicinformation#doctemplate DATASHEET BASIC INFORMATION Project Operation Name Beneficiary(ies) Iraq Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project Environmental and Social Risk Operation ID Financing Instrument Classification Investment Project P178935 High Financing (IPF) GEF Focal Area Persistent Organic Pollutants @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padprocessing#doctemplate Financing & Implementation Modalities [ ] Multiphase Programmatic Approach (MPA) [ ] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) [ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [✓] Fragile State(s) [ ] Performance-Based Conditions (PBCs) [ ] Small State(s) [ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Fragile within a non-fragile Country [ ] Project-Based Guarantee [ ] Conflict [ ] Deferred Drawdown [ ] Responding to Natural or Man-made Disaster [ ] Alternative Procurement Arrangements (APA) [ ] Hands-on Expanded Implementation Support (HEIS) Expected Approval Date Expected Closing Date 20-Feb-2025 31-Dec-2031 Bank/IFC Collaboration No Proposed Development Objective(s) Improve the management and safe disposal of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and hazardous chemicals in Iraq. ii The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) Components Component Name Cost (US$) Improving the management framework for POPs and hazardous chemicals 5,000,000.00 Management and disposal of high-risk priority stockpiles of POPs in 7,900,000.00 agriculture and power sectors Management of chemical pollution hotspots 4,850,000.00 Project management, Monitoring and Evaluation 737,495.00 @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padborrower#doctemplate Organizations Borrower: Republic of Iraq Contact Title Telephone No. Email Implementing Agency: Ministry of Environment Contact Title Telephone No. Email Raghad Asad Alobaidi Dr. +964 7711112231 env.alobaidi@yahoo.com Ali Wahab Ahmed Mr +964 7822208738 moen.iraq@gmail.com @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padfinancingsummary#doctemplate PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions) Maximizing Finance for Development Is this an MFD-Enabling Project (MFD-EP)? No Is this project Private Capital Enabling (PCE)? No SUMMARY Total Operation Cost 18.48 Total Financing 18.48 Financing Gap 0.00 DETAILS Non-World Bank Group Financing Trust Funds 18.48 iii The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) Iraq Reconstruction Trust Fund 5.00 Global Environment Facility (GEF) 13.48 @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@paddisbursementprojection#doctemplate Expected Disbursements (US$, Millions) WB Fiscal Year 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Annual 0.00 5.00 2.50 2.99 2.50 2.50 2.00 1.00 Cumulativ e 0.00 5.00 7.50 10.49 12.99 15.49 17.49 18.49 @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padclimatechange#doctemplate PRACTICE AREA(S) Practice Area (Lead) Contributing Practice Areas Environment, Natural Resources & the Blue Economy Agriculture and Food; Energy & Extractives @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padrisk#doctemplate SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK- RATING TOOL (SORT) Risk Category Rating 1. Political and Governance ⚫ High 2. Macroeconomic ⚫ Moderate 3. Sector Strategies and Policies ⚫ Moderate 4. Technical Design of Project or Program ⚫ Substantial 5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability ⚫ Substantial 6. Fiduciary ⚫ High 7. Environment and Social ⚫ High 8. Stakeholders ⚫ Substantial 9. Other ⚫ High 10. Overall ⚫ Substantial @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padcompliance#doctemplate iv The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) POLICY COMPLIANCE Policy Does the project depart from the CPF in content or in other significant respects? [ ] Yes [✓] No Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies? [ ] Yes [✓] No ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL Environmental and Social Standards Relevance Given its Context at the Time of Appraisal E & S Standards Relevance ESS 1: Assessment and Management of Environmental and Social Risks and Relevant Impacts ESS 10: Stakeholder Engagement and Information Disclosure Relevant ESS 2: Labor and Working Conditions Relevant ESS 3: Resource Efficiency and Pollution Prevention and Management Relevant ESS 4: Community Health and Safety Relevant ESS 5: Land Acquisition, Restrictions on Land Use and Involuntary Resettlement Not Currently Relevant ESS 6: Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Management of Living Natural Not Currently Relevant Resources ESS 7: Indigenous Peoples/Sub-Saharan African Historically Underserved Not Currently Relevant Traditional Local Communities ESS 8: Cultural Heritage Not Currently Relevant ESS 9: Financial Intermediaries Not Currently Relevant NOTE: For further information regarding the World Bank’s due diligence assessment of the Project’s potential environmental and social risks and impacts, please refer to the Project’s Appraisal Environmental and Social Review Summary (ESRS). @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padlegalcovenants#doctemplate LEGAL Legal Covenants Sections and Description Schedule 2, Section I.A.3: The Recipient shall establish not later than three (3) months after the Effective Date or any later date as agreed by the Bank, the Project Steering Committee and thereafter shall maintain its participation, v The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) throughout the Project implementation period, in said Project Steering Committee with composition, mandate and resources satisfactory to the Bank, to be comprised of, inter alia, representatives of the Recipient’s ministries responsible for finance and local government. Schedule 2, Section I.C.1: To facilitate the implementation of the Project, the Recipient shall by not later than three (3) months after the Effective Date or such later date as the Bank may agree in writing, cause the PIE to prepare and adopt the POM for the Project, in form and substance acceptable to the Bank. Schedule 2, Section I.D.6: The Recipient shall establish by not later than one (1) month after the Effective Date, or such later date as the Bank may agree in writing, publicize, maintain and operate an accessible grievance mechanism, to receive and facilitate resolution of concerns and grievances of Project-affected people, and take all measures necessary and appropriate to resolve, or facilitate the resolution of, such concerns and grievances, in a manner acceptable to the Bank. @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padconditions#doctemplate Conditions Type Citation Description Financing Source GEF Grant Agreement, Article IV, Section 4.01: This Agreement shall not become effective until GEF GA, Article IV, Section execution and delivery of Effectiveness Trust Funds 4.01 this Agreement on behalf of the Recipient have been duly authorized or ratified by all necessary governmental action. I3RF Grant Agreement, Article IV, Section 4.01: The I3RF Grant Agreement has been executed and delivered and all conditions I3RF GA, Article IV, Section precedent to its Effectiveness Trust Funds 4.01 (b) effectiveness or to the right of the Recipient to make withdrawals under it (other than the effectiveness of this Agreement) have been fulfilled GEF GA, Schedule 2, Section III.B.1(b) / I3RF GA, GEF GA, Schedule 2, Section Schedule 2, Section III.B.1(b) / I3RF GA, Disbursement III.B.1(b): Notwithstanding Trust Funds Schedule 2, Section the provisions of Part A of III.B.1(b) this Section no withdrawal shall be made under vi The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) Category (2) unless and until the Recipient has entered into the Output Agreement with the Project Implementing Entity, under terms and conditions satisfactory to the Bank. vii The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT A. Country Context 1. Iraq is an upper middle-income country, with poverty rate of about 20 percent. Almost two decades after series of conflicts, the country remains caught in a fragility trap with political instability, geopolitical risks, and volatile financial position. These events have had significant economic and social impacts on the country. The COVID 19 pandemic also induced a recession in 2020, and the country’s economy contracted for the second consecutive year in 2024 (0.70 percent) due to constrained crude oil production. However, according to International Monitory Fund, the real GDP is expected to recover in 2025 and is projected to grow at 4.1%. 2. Successive conflicts significantly damaged Iraq’s oil and industrial assets. This resulted in air, land, and water pollution on an unprecedented scale. Water pollution and land contamination have a long-lasting impact on the safety, health, and livelihoods of communities and disproportionately impact the most vulnerable, who are more reliant on natural resources for their livelihoods. These groups in Iraq include an estimated 3 million internally displaced population, women, female-headed households, and the youth. Although the full extent of conflict- related land contamination in the country is yet to be confirmed, the Damage Needs Assessment, 20181 of the World Bank estimated that about 2.4 million hectares of high-use land has been rendered unusable due to land mines, and that an additional 10,600 hectares have been lost due to pollution of hydrocarbons and other chemicals. The extent of both surface and groundwater contamination has also not been assessed. In this context, concrete measures to improve environmental management capacity of the government and addressing the issues of chemical pollution are needed to reduce the exposure of population to hazards and health risks and to improve environmental quality. 3. In the light of these challenges, Government of Iraq (GoI) is paying high attention to environmental issues. Accordingly, the National Development Plan 2024-28, identifies declining environment quality in the country as an important challenge and includes a specific chapter on Environmental Sustainability and Climate Change. The plan under the environment chapter includes a specific objective on ‘Waste and Hazardous waste management’. The GoI has also enhanced its collaboration with the international community on environment related matters. The Ministry of Environment (MoEn), in particular, is playing an important role in its commitment to international environmental policies and cooperation in partnership with various international development organizations. B. Sectoral and Institutional Context 4. The impact of chemical pollution on human health is devastating. Human exposure to chemical pollution (particularly women, children, and vulnerable groups) even at low levels can cause significant negative effects on human health. Studies by the Stockholm Convention2 and others establish the vulnerability of women to chemical contamination and the potential of bio-accumulative chemicals to pass from mother to baby from utero and via breast milk. This leads to critical health impacts such as breast cancer on women and child growth impairment. 1 World Bank. 2018. “Damage and Needs Assessment of Affected Governorates.” Part 2 of “Iraq Reconstruction & Investment.” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/8ba990ba-26d9-59aa-bfd6-6591250bb588. 2 https://chm.pops.int/Implementation/GlobalMonitoringPlan/MonitoringActivities/Humanmilksurvey/tabid/270/Default.aspx Page 1 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) 5. Of all chemicals Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) are among the most dangerous. They persist in the environment and accumulate in living organisms through the food chain, making them highly toxic to humans and wildlife. These POPs are categorized into four categories: Obsolete Pesticides (OPs), Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs), Un-intentional POPs (UPOPs) and Industrial POPs (IPOPs). OPs are mostly found in the agriculture sector, PCBs are used in the power sector, UPOPs are emitted due to incomplete combustion processes from burning of solid waste, electronic waste, hazardous waste, etc. and IPOPs are used in industrial processes and activities. 6. An assessment of chemical pollution hotspots by The World Bank and MoEn in seven conflict affected governorates identified 76 sites impacted by oil and chemical pollution directly affecting 55,050 people and 1.7 million people indirectly3. The assessment estimated economic loss of this pollution as US$1.4 billion per year due to health, economic, agriculture and livelihood impacts on people and recommended a national program on chemical pollution and contaminated sites. The assessment also recommended establishment of a platform to engage with civil society and citizens, build community awareness and solicit feedback on chemical pollution. 7. The GoI initiated regulatory and institutional actions to address the issues of chemical pollution and contaminated sites. These efforts include the passage of major environmental legislations such as Law No. 27 of 2009 on Protection and Improvement of the Environment including management of chemicals and hazardous waste. MoEn has also established ‘chemicals monitoring and contaminated sites assessments department’ to conduct inspections, assessments, and monitor implementation of management measures. However, the technical capacity and basic infrastructure of the department managing chemical pollution requires strengthening. 8. Iraq is signatory to international conventions and agreements on chemicals and hazardous substances, such as (i) the Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movement of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal, 1992 (ratified on May 2, 2011), (ii) the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants, 2004 (ratified on March 8, 2016), (iii) the Rotterdam Convention on Prior Informed Consent Procedure for Certain Hazardous Chemicals and Pesticides in International Trade, 2004 (ratified on April 18, 2017), (iv) the Minamata Convention on Mercury, 2017 (ratified on September 16, 2021). This confirms GoI’s commitment to addressing the challenges of chemical pollution and enables the country to access technical and financial resources from global mechanisms. 9. In accordance with the Stockholm Convention, Iraq has developed a National Implementation Plan (NIP) 4 for POPs with technical support from the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and funding from the Global Environment Facility (GEF). The NIP conducted an inventory of POPs comprising of OPs, PCBs and UPOPs and proposed actions to manage and eliminate POPs. The main findings of the NIP are the following: (a) Obsolete Pesticides. The Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) operates 18 pesticides storage depots in each governorate of Iraq, which store all types of pesticides including OPs. Currently, about 4.71 million empty containers are estimated to have been stored at these depots, including 103 tons of OPs, 421 liters of Endosulfan and about 142,000 empty containers at Al- Suwaira– a major pesticide storage warehouse. The laboratory analysis of 20 soil and warehouse surface samples at Al-Suwaira identified five compounds of OPs. Similar contamination of pesticides and OPs is anticipated at other storage depots of the MoA. 3 World Bank. 2023. “Iraq Environmental Hotspots: Land Remediation for Livelihoods Restoration”. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents- reports/documentdetail/099102723191012184/p1730490b252b40bd0a2b40df0215e54614 4 Develop the National Implementation Plan for the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and the Minamata Initial Assessment for the Minamata Convention on Mercury in Iraq (GEF Project ID 9690) Page 2 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) (b) PCBs in power sector. The NIP identified the possibility of potential PCB contamination of ‘in-use’ equipment imported before 1989. The inventory also indicated that there are about 230,887 in-service distribution power transformers (including those in Kurdistan Region of Iraq - KRI), 587 transmission power transformers (excluding KRI), and 129 production power transformers (including in KRI) manufactured between 1960 and 1990. It is also anticipated that more than 1 million liters of stored oil, 42 scrap yards, 19,585 scrap transformers and about 8,000 transformers are stored in about 170 locations across the country. A limited on-site sampling and analysis of 53 random samples using Chlor-N-oil instant PCBs testing kits concluded that 18 (33 percent) of these samples are PCB positive. (c) UPOPs. The NIP analyzed nine sources such as waste incineration, production of ferrous and non-ferrous metals, heat, and power generation, etc. and estimated that about 127,000 g Toxic Equivalent of UPOPs are generated in Iraq per annum. 10. The NIP however, focused on 30 POPs listed under the Stockholm Convention until 2019 and didn’t focus on subsequently included IPOPs. In addition, the plan was prepared during COVID 19 period, hence adequate field inventories and assessments could not be conducted. Accordingly, the NIP recommended its further update based on detailed inventory of all POPs and necessary policy and institutional actions. C. Relevance to Higher Level Objectives 11. The Project is aligned with the Country Partnership Framework (CPF) (FY22-FY26) for Iraq and supports the achievement of Pillar 1: improved governance, public service delivery and private sector participation. The Project is also aligned with World Bank Group (WBG)’s corporate and regional strategies and the renewed vision of eliminating poverty in a livable planet. The Project is consistent with the recommendations of Country Climate and Development Report for Iraq, specifically for health, energy, and waste management sectors and is aligned with WBG’s proposed Gender Strategy (2024-30). 12. With a focus on hazardous chemicals and contaminated sites, the Project activities are aligned with the ‘National Strategy for the Protection and Improvement of Environment, 2024-30’ and ‘National Development Plan, 2024-28’ of Iraq. The Project is also consistent with the country’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). The activities related to OPs management contribute to NDC’s adaptation action on ‘reducing reliance on pesticides and herbicides’ in the agriculture sector. By improving the management of PCBs in the power sector, the Project responds directly to the NDC’s mitigation action to ‘increase efficiency of operational processes to reduce use of fuel and reduce emissions’ in the energy sector. 13. The Project supports the chemical and waste programming objectives of the GEF related to Program 1 on Industrial Chemicals and Program 2 on Agricultural Chemicals that aim to eliminate POPs based agriculture chemicals and PCBs. The Project also contributes to the GEF’s knowledge management guiding framework by facilitating the collection, exchange, and update of relevant knowledge within the participating countries. By integrating the component on contaminated sites (hotspots) and capacity building activities, the Project supports Iraq Reform Recovery and Reconstruction Fund (I3RF)’s objective of ‘fostering socio-economic reform, recovery and reconstruction that complement the effectiveness of government’s programs. Page 3 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION A. Project Development Objective PDO Statement Improve the management and safe disposal of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and hazardous chemicals in Iraq. PDO Level Indicators 14. The outcome of the PDO will be monitored through the following indicators. ▪ OPs and PCBs waste destroyed or disposed or contained (metric ton) - 4,000 tons. ▪ Policies and regulations for the management of POPs, hazardous chemicals, and pollution hotspots developed (number) - Four ▪ Share of POPs monitored through the management information system established through the Project (percentage)- 50 ▪ Direct project beneficiaries (number) - 7,000,000, of which female (percentage) - 49 B. Project Components 15. The Project through grants from the GEF and I3RF will support Iraq to minimize environment and health risks due to POPs and other chemical pollution hotspots and improve livelihoods of local communities through the following four components. While Components 1 and 2 support management of POPs with GEF funding, Component 3 with I3RF funding supports management of chemical pollution hotspots. Component 4 supports activities related to project management and monitoring. Component 1: Improve the management of POPs and hazardous chemicals (US$5.00 million GEF Grant) Sub-component 1.1: Updating National Implementation Plan for POPs (US$2.70 million) 16. This sub-component will finance update/ preparation of inventory of all POPs (OPs, PCBs, UPOPs and IPOPs) and development of a comprehensive NIP for Iraq including KRI to comply with Article 7 under the Stockholm Convention, its endorsement and submission to the Convention Secretariat. The preparation of the NIP will involve (i) ranking actions based on the obligations set out under the Stockholm Convention, risks posed to human health and the environment in the country, (ii) identifying cost-effective action plans for the newly adopted POPs (IPOPs), and (iii) revising action plans for the initial POPs listed under the Convention. The NIP will also consider emerging aspects such as circular economy approaches, green chemistry, extended producer responsibility, green public procurement, and economic incentives where feasible and appropriate. Page 4 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) Sub-component 1.2: Policy, regulatory and institutional strengthening for POPs management (US$0.40 million) 17. This sub-component will support assessment of policy, institutional and regulatory gaps for the implementation of the NIP and other requirements for implementing the Stockholm Convention. Based on this assessment, this sub-component will support development of (i) policies for the prevention and management, (ii) regulations and standards for ensuring compliance, (iii) monitoring systems for tracking the entire value chain of import, production, supply, usage, and disposal, (iv) protocols and guidelines for the storage, handling, maintenance, and usage, (v) framework and guidelines for the risk-based remediation of contaminated sites and (vi) action plan for community awareness, consultations and citizens engagement on POPs and other hazardous chemical pollution. To the extent possible, this sub-component will also support the process of approval and implementation of the above activities, within the Project’s lifetime. Given the health impacts of POPs on women as established by the Stockholm Convention and other scientific research, special attention will be paid to ensure that gender dimensions are integrated in these policies and regulations. 18. This sub-component will also support the establishment of a federal coordination committee for the implementation of the NIP. This will comprise of members from Iraq and KRI involving relevant ministries and stakeholders dealing with POPs management, experts from non-governmental organizations, academic and civil society. This committee will provide guidance and recommendations in the development and effective implementation of policies and strategies related to hazardous chemicals and POPs. The committee will include at least 30 percent of qualified women representing field experts or women organizations to ensure that different health risks faced by women and men are addressed while implementing the NIP. Sub-component 1.3: Capacity building for POPs Management (US$1.90 million) 19. This sub-component will support building capacity of MoEn and other key stakeholders such as MoA, Ministry of Electricity (MoElec) and KRI, through training, provision of laboratory and / or field equipment and other support for better management of POPs and chemicals. This involves the following activities. (a) comprehensive training in the inspection, testing and monitoring; handling, management, treatment, disposal/ destruction of POPs, and enforcement of regulations. (b) provision of necessary laboratory equipment to MoA for testing, sampling, and analysis of POPs. (c) provision of necessary field equipment to MoEn (Iraq and KRI) for inspection, testing, sampling, and analysis of POPs including PCBs (oil, soil samples and other elements). Considering the complementarity of capacity needs for POPs and hazardous chemicals, the laboratory capacity of MoEn will be enhanced through Component 3. (d) enhance capacity of maintenance workshops of MoElec (Iraq and KRI) for testing of PCBs (oil, soil samples and other elements), through procurement of PCB/chloride analyzer system to detect and quantify the presence of PCBs, acquisition of reagents and accessories, training (maintaining workshops, collection, handling, storage, and transport of PCBs and wastes). Page 5 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) These activities will be implemented based on a need assessment of each stakeholder agency, ongoing government and internationally funded similar initiatives and specific equipment and capacity building needs to be supported through the Project will be finalized accordingly during project implementation. Component 2: Management and disposal of high-risk priority POPs in agriculture and power sectors (US$7.90 million GEF Grant) Sub-component 2.1: Management and disposal of OPs in the agriculture sector (US$2.60 million) 20. Building on OPs inventory in sub-component 1.1, this sub-component will identify priority sites, conduct detailed assessments, understand critical risks, prioritize sites based on the level of contamination and risks, develop necessary management and destruction/ disposal strategies for a total of 1000 tons of OPs and support their implementation. The objective is to demonstrate environmentally sound management of OPs, which can be scaled-up by GoI beyond the Project. Designs and plans will be developed for the identified priority sites to (i) capture, segregate and contain obsolete pesticide stockpiles and contaminated materials; (ii) undertake physical recovery, and (iii) package, transport and safe disposal of the recovered stockpiles and contaminated material. 21. Wherever the destruction of contaminated material is identified as a priority due to risk to local communities and to achieve GEF strategic objectives of maximizing volume of obsolete pesticides eliminated, this sub-component will support their disposal based on Best Available Technologies/ Best Environmental Practices as defined by the Stockholm Convention along with required environment management measures. The selection of destruction/ disposal technologies will rely on the recommendations of the feasibility study to be conducted under sub-component 1.1 of the Project. Wherever feasible, disposal in country through co-incineration in cement kilns (which will avoid most Green House Gas – GHG emissions and resulting in minor Carbon dioxide- CO2 emissions) or development of appropriate facilities will be pursued or a combination of in-country and disposal at international facilities will be adopted. Sub-component 2.2: Management and disposal of PCBs in the power sector (US$5.30 million) 22. The inventory of PCBs, their phase out plan and NIP developed in sub-component 1.1 will guide this sub- component in designing environmentally sound treatment/disposal of the equipment and dielectric fluids that will be generated from the contaminated equipment or treat such units so that level of contamination is reduced to below the low POPs limit specified under the Stockholm Convention (50 ppm). The objective of this component is not just to dispose/ dechlorinate PCBs but to develop a harmonized national regulatory and administrative framework for PCBs and PCB wastes in compliance with the commitments under the Stockholm and Basel Conventions, technical and administrative capacity of GoI agencies in managing PCBs through destruction or decontamination of 3,000 tons of PCB-containing equipment or PCB contaminated wastes. 23. Considering the large volume of PCB contaminated equipment within the power sector of Iraq, the Project will evaluate various destruction and/or disposal scenarios both to maximize the impact of the quantity managed with Project support and for further elimination of PCBs by Iraq. Options such as disposing PCB contaminated oil and waste in a facility abroad or through in-country facilities such as cement kilns/ incinerators (to be developed) will be explored. Each of these disposal scenarios will be carefully evaluated during the Project implementation with due consideration to factors such as their feasibility, environmental impact (including GHG emissions, if any), safety measures, and compliance with relevant regulations. Learning from the successful experience of Egypt POPs Page 6 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) Project (P116230/GEF ID 3905), the Project will also explore the viability of procuring mobile de-chlorination unit for treating in-service contaminated transformers and hiring a vendor to perform de-contamination activities and providing on the job training to GoI team. Component 3: Management of chemical pollution hotspots (US$4.85 million I3RF Grant) 24. Based on the recommendations of the chemical pollution hotspots analysis conducted by the World Bank and MoEn5 and linkages with the objectives of the Project, this component proposes to support activities for the management of these sites with financing from I3RF. In line with I3RF’s mandate, this component will focus on the seven conflict affected governorates of Iraq and support the following activities: (a) Detailed assessment and preparation of remediation plans for 3 to 5 priority chemical pollution hotspots (US$2.00 million). The candidate sites will be selected based on the 76 hotspots identified through the inventory and analysis referred above, and a detailed assessment will be conducted to understand the nature and level of contamination/ pollution at the sites and the risks it poses to communities. The detailed site assessments will involve site investigations, sampling surveys, assessment of environmental, health and economic impacts in the influence area and development of management and/or remediation plans based on risk-based criteria and future use of the site. The remediation plans will be developed in close consultation and collaboration with local communities and stakeholders and evaluate opportunities for private sector participation (if any) in implementing the remediation plans. To strengthen synergies between components 1, 2 and 3 of the Project, efforts will be made to prioritize hotspot sites contaminated with OPs or PCBs, so that detailed assessments can be conducted through this activity, while management activities can be conducted through Component 2 of the Project. Depending on the readiness of detailed assessments and time available for utilizing I3RF funds, this component will also implement the remediation of priority sites. Given that some of the hotspots are mixed with solid waste, this component will also support necessary assessment/ analysis and activities for the improvement of the solid waste management scenario of Iraq. (b) Development of standards and regulations (US$0.70 million) for the management of chemical pollution hotspots in Iraq. This will involve (i) establishing a GIS based contaminated sites information system, (ii) developing or strengthening GoI’s policy on contaminated sites management; (iii) preparing regulations and standards to address chemical pollution/ contamination (soil, ground water and water quality standards); (iv) developing of framework/ guidelines for the identification, assessment, risk assessment, remediation and post remediation monitoring of chemical contaminated sites with inputs from components 1 and 2; and (v) facilitating the development of a national program for the management of chemical pollution hotspots with the necessary budget and resource allocation. (c) Training and institutional development (US$2.15 million) for effective management of chemicals and contaminated sites. This will involve supporting activities to evaluate various institutional models and 5World Bank. 2023. “Iraq Environmental Hotspots: Land Remediation for Livelihoods Restoration”. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents- reports/documentdetail/099102723191012184/p1730490b252b40bd0a2b40df0215e54614 Page 7 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) developing detailed institutional structures for the management of chemicals and contaminated sites management in Iraq. In addition, specific training will be provided to various stakeholder agencies on chemical contamination, development of conceptual models, risk assessments and remediation plans/ programs. The capacity of MoEn for sampling and analysis of hazardous chemicals and soils will also be supported through procurement of on-site monitoring and laboratory equipment, their calibration requirements, accreditation, and maintenance protocols. Component 4: Project Management, and Monitoring and Evaluation (US$0.73 million- US$0.58 million GEF Grant and US$0.15 million I3RF Grant) 25. This component will support: (a) the establishment and operation of the Project Management Unit (PMU) at the Ministry of Environment and related activities conducted by MoA and MoElec. This will involve financing costs of PMU staff and operating costs associated with day-to-day project management costs. (US$0.46 million- US$0.37 million GEF and US$0.09 million I3RF Grant): and (b) the preparation and implementation of monitoring and evaluation activities of the Project, collecting evidence-based information and data and reporting in compliance to the World Bank and GEF guidelines (GEF Environmental Policy, 2019 and updates on GEF Evaluation Policy). For Component 3 funded by I3RF, the activities will be monitored and reported as per the specific reporting requirements of the donor regularly and annually. (US$0.27 million- US$0.21 million GEF Grant and U$0.06 million I3RF Grant). C. Project Beneficiaries 26. The Project activities are expected to directly benefit an estimated 7 million people (about 15.5 percent of Iraq’s population) working and living around the sites/ facilities of Project intervention. The main benefits to these people would be mitigation and avoidance of health and environmental impacts arising due to the exposure to the hazardous chemicals present at the locations of Project interventions. Based on the overall distribution of male female population in Iraq, it is expected that about 49 percent of the Project beneficiary will be women. 27. In addition, about 19.3 million people are expected to benefit indirectly due to improved living conditions in the towns and cities, water and soil quality, livelihoods, and agriculture productivity around the Project sites. It is however important to note that these estimates of direct and indirect beneficiaries are indicative, as the exact locations of Project interventions will be finalized during the Project implementation based on detailed assessments and risk-based prioritization. Accordingly, the actual beneficiaries of the project, will be updated during the implementation phase of the project. Page 8 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) D. Results Chain 28. The theory of change for the Project as presented in the figure below, envisages mitigation of significant environment and health risks to the population by safely managing / disposing high-risk priority OPs and PCBs in Iraq. In addition, the capacity building provided through the Project is expected to facilitate reduction of long- term health and environmental risk to the people (figure below), through follow-on interventions by the GoI. The critical assumptions underlying the results chain include: (i) key stakeholders in hazardous chemicals management closely collaborate in the implementation of the Project and beyond; (ii) the security situation in the country will allows for the participation of competent and experienced international consultants and contractors in the implementation of Project activities; and (iii) GoI pursues the implementation of policy, institutional and regulatory tools developed by the Project and complies to the commitments made under Stockholm Convention. Theory of Change Problem Statement: POPs and Hazardous Waste are posing severe health and environmental risks in Iraq OUTCOMES ACTIVITIES OUTPUTS Short-term outcomes Medium-term outcomes Long-term Impact Updating NIP for Updated NIP POPs including new POPs Improve management of POPs & POPs hazardous chemicals Policy instruments, technical guidelines Action plan for Policy, regulatory for OPs and PCBs and operational Policy and POPs management and institutional system for their tracking institutional and prioritization of strengthening actions initiated national strategic Training, laboratory strengthening for objectives POPs and Hazardous Chemicals Capacity Building Management and Disposal of Management and Reduced health Containment and disposal /destruction Prevention, Sustainable Disposal of OPs in & environmental of OPs Reduction and Management of agriculture sector risks from POPs POPs v Disposal of POPs POPs hazardous and HW in Iraq hazardous waste waste Management and Treatment and disposal of PCBs disposal of PCBs in power sector Mgmnt. of Chemical Detailed pollution hotspots Remediation Plan for Priority Sites assessment of priority hotspots Enabling framework Implementation of for National National Program Regulations and Standards for Development of Program on for Contaminated contaminated sites management standards and contaminated sites Sites regulations Training and Laboratory Strengthening Capacity Building for hazardous chemicals for hotspots E. Rationale for Bank Involvement and Role of Partners 29. Pollution management Projects, especially those involving hazardous chemicals such as OPs and PCBs, are technically complex and countries have limited capacity to implement. Bank’s support to GoI through GEF and I3RF financing will help demonstrate the implementation of these complex technologies and build capacity of GoI in managing hazardous chemicals. This will facilitate scaling up the program to address significant environmental challenges of Iraq. Page 9 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) 30. In terms of experience, the Bank has supported several pollution management projects including projects involving PCBs and OPs financed by GEF both in MENA region and in other countries. Some of the successful projects in MENA include Egypt Sustainable POPs Management Project (P116230), Lebanon PCB Management in Power Sector Project (P122540) and PCB management project in Tunisia (P100478). In addition, Bank has implemented/ is implementing projects across other regions including Viet Nam (P099460), China (P082993), Moldova (P090037), Nigeria (P113173). This strong portfolio of experience, sector knowledge and relationship with government institutions in Iraq, helps the Bank to better design the Project and support implementation. 31. The Project closely co-ordinates with development partners such as UNEP and United Nations Development Program (UNDP) working in the sector/ country and leverages funding from programs such as GEF and I3RF to support GoI on this important pollution management project. As highlighted earlier, the Project builds on the NIP prepared by UNEP and leverages the analysis jointly conducted by MoEn and the Bank on environmental hotspots. F. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design 32. The design of the Project has benefited from the experience of supporting similar projects by the Bank. Learning from previous Bank projects, the Project will explore the feasibility of implementing two innovations successfully demonstrated in Egypt and Lebanon. The first of them is to assess the feasibility of co-processing of OPs in cement kilns, which will save the costs of sending them abroad for incineration and ensure long term management of OPs beyond the Project life. Similarly for PCBs, the Project will assess the technical viability of de-chlorination of PCB contaminated oil in online transformers with appropriate technologies. In addition, the Project will adopt ‘learning by doing approach’ to build the technical capacity of MoEn and will facilitate collaboration with Egyptian and Lebanese agencies (who successfully implemented POPs and PCBs projects). This regional collaboration between government agencies will ensure more effective capacity building than conventional technical training programs. III. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements 33. MoEn will be responsible for the overall implementation of the Project in terms of, (i) managing the Project in line with the overall design and agreed procurement and financial management arrangements; (ii) ensuring the implementation of Environmental and Social Framework (ESF) requirements including the Environmental and Social Commitment Plan (ESCP) of the Project; (iii) monitoring the results towards the achievement of agreed outcomes; and (iv) complying with reporting requirements of both Grant Agreements (GA) for GEF and I3RF. 34. For the purposes of implementing the Project, MoEn will establish a PMU comprising of qualified and experienced technical, financial, procurement, environment, and social specialists. The PMU will be responsible for overall planning, implementation and management of the Project activities and will supervise the implementation of activities by the consultants, contractors, and other agencies. The PMU will also coordinate with other stakeholder ministries such as MoA, MoElec, the KRI in implementing the Project activities. Page 10 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) 35. To complement its efforts in Project implementation, the MoEn will seek the support of UNDP or any other UN Agency to implement part of the Project activities. It is envisaged that, the concerned agency (UNDP or any other UN agency) will support MoEn in implementing all activities under components 1, 2 and 3 of the Project. MoEn will sign an agreement with the selected UN agency using the Bank’s standard output agreement to deliver these activities. MoEn has initiated discussions with UNDP for this purpose, however a flexible approach is being adopted, so that the government can sign the agreement with any other UN Agency subject to prior approval of the Bank. MoEn and the PMU will supervise the activities implemented by the UN Agency in close coordination with the GoI, relevant ministries and all Project stakeholders. 36. To facilitate coordination and active participation of various GoI agencies, relevant ministries, and other stakeholders for the overall implementation of the Project, MoEn will establish a “Project Steering Committee (PSC).” The PSC will be established in close consultation with GoI ministries, departments, agencies, and other stakeholders relevant to the Project and will include MoEn, MoA, MoElec, Ministry of Oil, Ministry of Industry and Minerals, Ministry of Planning, Ministry of Science and Technology, Ministry of Finance and other stakeholders as needed. The PSC will comprise at least 30 percent of qualified women to ensure that the different needs and risk factors of women are duly considered and mainstreamed in the Project. 37. The main objective of the PSC will be to (i) review the Project progress and provide strategic guidance in Project implementation; (ii) facilitate coordination/ collaboration between PMU and other parties; (iii) facilitate resolution of implementation challenges including any statutory and administrative approvals that may be required for the Project; and (iv) ensure synergies between Project activities, other initiatives of the government and other development partners. The PSC will also ensure appropriate participation of relevant officials of MoEn in the implementation of the Project, to facilitate the transfer of knowledge from the PMU, UN Agency and other technical experts involved in the Project. Such participation will also help with capacity building of ministries in ensuring sustainability of the Project interventions and their scale up in future. The Project Operations Manual (POM) prepared for the Project will also guide the overall implementation of the Project. Further details on project implementation arrangements are elaborated in Annex 1. 38. In addition, a Third-Party Monitoring Agency (TPMA) will be engaged by the Bank to monitor Project activities . The TPMA will report on the progress of all activities, outputs, status of achieving the results and the fiduciary and ESF implementation. The TPMA will share its monitoring report with the World Bank and the findings of the report will be discussed with MoEn and corrective actions with timelines will be agreed. MoEn accordingly will submit a report on the corrective actions taken to address issues identified by the TPMA to the World Bank. B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements 39. MoEn will be responsible for results monitoring and reporting in line with the agreed Results Framework of the Project and the requirements of the World Bank, GEF and I3RF. In doing so, the ministry will collaborate with stakeholder ministries and the UN Agency supporting components 1,2 and 3, and collect relevant data/ information based on the approach and methodology agreed in the POM for the Project. A Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) expert will be recruited for this purpose who will be responsible for this function and to ensure timely and efficient implementation of the M&E plan of the Project. Page 11 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) C. Sustainability 40. The overall sustainability of the Project is demonstrated by GoI through its commitment to the elimination of POPs by (i) ratifying the Stockholm Convention; (ii) preparing the NIP for initial POPs; (ii) seeking GEF and World Bank’s support in designing and implementation of the current Project and (iv) committing to provide US$25 million in kind contribution and additional US$64 million for programs and activities that support efficient operation and maintenance of various Project interventions. Sustainability of Project outputs and outcomes beyond Project life is thus expected to be high. 41. Sustainability elements have also been mainstreamed in the Project design by adopting an integrated approach in designing the components. The overarching objective of the Project is to support the GoI in meeting its legal obligations under the Stockholm Convention by identifying all types of POPs and demonstrating implementation of environmentally sound technologies for their management. In addition, the design of the Project reflects the following sustainability elements. ▪ Institutional sustainability. This is evinced through strong buy-in from stakeholders and their commitment to mobilize seven times the GEF grant to ensure sustainability and scaling up Project interventions. The Project further supports institutional sustainability by (i) strengthening the institutional structure, (ii) strengthening policies and regulations, (iii) developing strategies, methodological tools, and technical skills, (iii) providing training and capacity building of institutions, and (iv) enhancing public awareness for POPs management. ▪ Environmental and social sustainability. By supporting the disposal/ management of OPs and PCBs, the Project contributes to significant environmental and social benefits such as reduced risk of health hazards to communities (including women and children), improved soil quality, water quality, etc. This contributes to environmental and social sustainability by enhancing agriculture productivity, livelihoods, and possible return of internally displaced people in the areas of Project interventions. ▪ Economic sustainability. Based on financial and economic analysis of different alternatives to eliminate POPs, the Project will explore the feasibility of developing in-country treatment/ disposal options, such as co- processing of OPs and PCB oils in cement plants, procurement of mobile PCB di-chlorination units. This will enable development of local infrastructure for the management of POPs in Iraq, thereby building capacity of the country for the long-term management of POPs and economic sustainability. IV. PROJECT APPRAISAL SUMMARY A. Technical, Economic and Financial Analysis (if applicable) (i) Technical Analysis 42. The Project is designed to demonstrate environmentally sound management of hazardous chemicals (POPs and other chemicals) and build capacity for managing these substances over a longer term. Accordingly, the components are designed based on strategies and action plans recommended by the NIP for POPs and assessment conducted by World Bank together with MoEn on environmental hotspots. In addition, further analysis of OPs and Page 12 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) PCBs scenario in Iraq was carried out during the Project preparation, to understand (i) POPs monitoring, enforcement and management practices by MoEn (ii) current practices of OPs management by MoA, (iii) current system of monitoring, assessing and management of PCB contamination in transformers and other equipment by MoElec, (iv) policy, regulatory and institutional mechanisms for POPs management in KRI, (v) capacity of all stakeholder ministries and agencies and (vi) overall institutional co-ordination mechanism for POPs and chemicals management in Iraq. This analysis and due diligence indicated the following. ▪ Need for comprehensive inventory of all POPs (OPs, PCBs, UPOPs and IPOPs), that could not be conducted during the preparation of current NIP and its updating. ▪ Possibility of finding new stockpiles of OPs or PCBs due to limited sampling and assessment done during the preparation of the NIP. ▪ Limited laboratory capacity of all agencies in testing and analysis of POPs and hazardous chemicals. ▪ Significant chemical contamination due to the series of conflicts and the need for an integrated approach for managing POPs and other hazardous chemicals. ▪ Presence of large quantities of POPs and widespread chemical contamination across the country, emphasizing the need for exploring innovative treatment and disposal technologies that are economical and sustainable. 43. The Project incorporates findings of the above assessment and adopts an integrated and flexible approach both in the design of the components and technologies that can be adopted for managing/disposing the targeted 4000 tons of POPs. More specifically, the Project includes the following measures. ▪ Designing sub-component 1.1 covering all types of POPs (OPs, PCBs, UPOPs and IPOPs) involving detailed inventory, sampling and assessment and comprehensive update of NIP along with appropriate cost allocation. ▪ Designing component 2 to identify high risk OPs and PCBs stockpiles to be destructed/ disposed during project implementation through detailed assessment and risk analysis of potential sites, rather than pre-identifying sites during preparation. ▪ Leveraging US$5 million I3RF grant for the management of chemical contaminated sites (component 3), to integrate enabling policies, regulations and capacity building activities for contaminated sites and POPs. ▪ Including procurement of laboratory and / or field equipment through sub-components 1.3 and component 3 ▪ Including studies to assess the feasibility of co-processing OPs, PCB oils in cement plants (sub-component 1.1) and procurement of mobile dichlorination unit for the decontamination of online transformers from PCBs (sub-component 2.2). These features of the Project are expected to address the issue of POPs and hazardous chemicals management in Iraq in an integrated manner and enable successful implementation of the Project and sustainable POPs management beyond the Project. (ii) Economic Analysis 44. The Project contributes to local and global public goods by supporting intangibles (preparing NIP, capacity building, etc.) and tangible investments to dispose OPs and POPs to reduce the risks to health and environment. These interventions will benefit (i) workers handling these substances; (ii) local communities including women who may be exposed through contact or use of contaminated water or food or inhalation; and (iii) the global Page 13 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) environment from reduced exposure from the release of dioxins and furans into the atmosphere. Accordingly, a three-pronged economic analysis was performed where the project efficiency is gauged by conducting a benefit cost analysis. 45. Quantitative Analysis. The economic analysis was conducted (i) considering the more quantifiable health benefits associated with the safe disposal of the POPs and PCBs treatment, and (ii) benchmarking disposal costs from similar projects supported by the Bank. The Project investments with a discounted rate of 6 percent, show a robust economic internal rate of return of 23 percent over 25 years. A sensitivity and scenario analysis was also carried out to get a more comprehensive understanding of the possible outcomes of the project. The economic analysis carried out for the project is further elaborated in Annex 1. Paris Alignment and Climate Change 46. The project contributes to the objectives of Iraq’s NDCs (2021)6 related to the health sector on preventing climate and pollution induced diseases. It also aligns with Iraq’s Country Climate and Development Report7 for pollution management and National Development Plan (2024-28)8 objectives on waste management. 47. Assessment and reduction of adaptation risks. Polluted sites and contaminated land can be impacted by climate change, with significant negative impacts both for the health of ecosystems and human population. While frequent and intense storms increase the likelihood of flooding of contaminated land and increased run-off from contaminated stockpiles, frequent and intense drought can affect water-intensive remedies and site stability. Similarly, flooding and drought can result in unregulated release of chemicals through surface soils, ground water, surface and/or coastal waters, which can complicate cleanup efforts or threaten remediated sites, and higher temperatures can increase the availability of contaminants, affect the transport of persistent organic pollutants, and increase the rate at which ecosystems and organisms absorb or process contaminants. Changes in temperature can also affect the effectiveness of some remediation systems. Wildfires can spread contaminants and damage site infrastructure. The destruction of organic matter by fire can affect the behavior of metals in the soil, which can alter mobility and lead to significant quantities of metal leaching into groundwater. The project has incorporated actions to reduce these risks to an acceptable level through incorporation of standards for harmonized national regulatory and administrative framework for PCBs and PCB wastes in compliance to the commitments under Stockholm and Basel conventions (Component 2). 48. Assessment and reduction of mitigations risks. The Project is Paris Aligned and integrates climate change considerations in the design and implementation of its components. More specifically, the selection of disposal/ destruction technologies for OPs and PCBs will consider GHG emission potential and the most feasible option will be selected. Further, the Project will support adopting cleaner processes and recycling initiatives for the management of POPs and hazardous chemicals, thereby contributing to reduction in GHG emissions. This approach not only mitigates immediate impacts on climate but also contributes to long-term climate resilience and reducing risks to communities vulnerable to climate risks. These measures also reduces GHG emissions to a low level. 6 https://ndcpartnership.org/country/irq 7 https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099005012092241290/pdf/P1776390cfceae0d908ff8073b7e041bea6.pdf 8 https://www.undp.org/iraq/publications/iraq-national-development-plan-2024-2028 Page 14 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) Gender 49. Efforts to ensure sound management of chemicals, including POPs, will have many gender dimensions. The most Important of them include vulnerability of women to health impacts from (i) exposure to hazardous chemicals based on type, level, and frequency of exposure, and (ii) bioaccumulation of chemicals to pass from mother to baby from utero and breast milk. Project specific gender analysis was conducted to better understand the gender situation in Iraq and a Gender Action Plan (GAP) is developed by MoEn in line with the GEF Policy on Gender Equality requirements (2018), WBG Strategy on Gender equality, poverty reduction, and inclusive growth (2016- 2023)9, and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)10. 50. Considering the gender sensitivities associated with chemical contamination and the findings of the Stockholm Convention11, various other organizations12 and GAP, the Project will support implementation of actions that (i) ensure integration of gender dimensions in the policies and regulations to be developed for POPs and hazardous chemicals, (ii) facilitate women empowerment by ensuring equitable representation of women (at least 30 percent) in key decision making bodies such as the Federal Coordination Committee for the implementation of NIP and the Project Steering Committee (iii) ensure integration of risk reduction measures in the design and implementation of Project activities to avoid the adverse effects of chemicals on the health of men and women through focused consultations with different groups, (iv) collect and analyze gender disaggregated data in identifying direct beneficiaries of the Project and also in all studies/ activities supported by the Project, so that Project interventions are gender informed and (v) promote equal opportunities to women by ensuring employment of women in the PMU and other agencies likely to work on the Project. Citizen Engagement 51. Citizens Engagement activities and engagement with all stakeholders will be conducted all through Project implementation. The Project conducted extensive consultations with various stakeholders including citizens representatives during Project preparation. This approach will be continued during implementation and the Project will adopt a multi-stakeholder consultation process to ensure citizen engagement, inclusion, and ownership among beneficiaries. This will entail meaningful consultation and feedback mechanisms and focus group consultations and participatory mechanisms. A Grievance Mechanism (GM) will be set up for the Project in line with the ESF requirements of the Bank. The GM will integrate local channels of communication/ complaint mechanism, to ensure receipt of continued inputs and concerns from communities on Project activities. The GM will also include referral pathways in the event of any sexual exploitation and abuse and sexual harassment (SEA/SH) complaints related to the Project and will adopt principles of confidentiality and anonymity. 9 With a particular emphasis on what it concerns gender equality in fragile and conflict-affected situations 10 Particularly SDG5 (gender equality), SDG3 (good health and well-being), SDG6 (clean water and sanitation), SDG8 (decent work and economic growth), and SDG12 (responsible consumption and production), SDG13 (climate action), and SDG15 (life on land). 11 UNEP/POPS/COP.6/INF/33 (2013), “Human Exposure to POPS Across the Globe: POPS Levels and Human Health Implications – Results of the WHO/UNEP Human Milk Survey” https://chm.pops.int/Portals/0/download.aspx?d=UNEP-POPS-PAWA-CASES-HumanExposureToPOPsAcrossTheGlobe.En.pdf 12 Women in Europe for a Common Future, 2016 “Women and Chemicals: The impact of hazardous chemicals on women – A thought starter based on an experts’ workshop”. https://www.wecf.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/WomenAndChemicals_PublicationIWD2016.pdf Page 15 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) Private Sector Engagement 52. The Project seeks to engage with the private sector, to ensure its involvement in improving the management of POPs. This is important, as private sector plays a significant role in Iraq in the (i) import and production of pesticides and (ii) manufacture and maintenance of transformers and other equipment in the power sector. Considering this, the Project will hold consultations with private sector in the development of NIP and policies that facilitate involvement of private sector in the management of POPs. In addition, including private sector/ industry representatives in the Federal Coordination Committee for POPs will also be explored and inputs will be sought on various activities being planned by the GoI for POPs management in Iraq. Through these engagements, the Project aims to improve industry practices in (i) pesticides production, storge and distribution and (ii) manufacture and management of transformers and prevent issues of pollution due to unsafe practices. 53. The Project will collaborate with the private sector and explore the feasibility of in-country destruction and disposal of POPs. To facilitate this, the Project will share information on environmentally sound and economically feasible alternatives/alternative technologies with the private sector and engage in a dialogue to implement them in Iraq. These include assessing the viability of (i) modifying the manufacturing process and investments to enable co-processing of OPs and PCBs in the cement kilns, (ii) analyzing the issues and enabling reuse of di-chlorinated PCB oils. Successful implementation of either or both these initiatives will ensure long-term sustainability of the Project interventions and mobilize significant private sector financing. B. Fiduciary (i) Financial Management 54. The Financial Management (FM) assessment conducted for MoEn found that the FM risk, as a component of the fiduciary risk, is ‘high’ and is expected to be ‘moderate’ after the implementation of mitigation measures. The key FM risks are (i) the complex nature of Project activities requiring specialized contractors/consultants for Project implementation which would make it challenging to have proper oversight on utilization of Project funds (ii) limited capacity of MoEn to meet Project’s financial management requirements and (iii) overall weakness and shortcomings in the control environment including banking system. To address these risks, the proposed mitigating measures are: (i) submission of detailed financial reporting on a quarterly basis from MoEn to the Bank as per the content and format of the financial reports agreed (ii) conducting yearly external financial audit of the Project; (iii) engaging UNDP or other UN agency to support management and implementation of part of the Project activities and (iv) including a computerized accounting system to record the transactions and payments made and report to the Bank on a quarterly basis. With these proposed mitigating measures, the MoEn will have the FM requirements and will have an acceptable FM system, and the residual FM risk rating would be Moderate. A more detailed FM assessment and arrangements are provided in Annex 1. 55. The MoEn will engage UNDP or other UN agency to support the management and implementation of part of the Project activities. These activities will be mainly related to components 1,2 and 3 of the project. MoEn will sign an agreement with UNDP or UN Agency following WBG’s standard form of output agreement and this agreement will include specific detailed financial reporting by the agency comprising detailed breakdown of expenditures by component and by activity. The format and content of the financial reports will be agreed upon Page 16 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) with the selected UN Agency and will be included in the output agreement. The financial reports will be required on a quarterly basis to be submitted 45 days after the end of each quarter. The activities to be implemented by the selected UN Agency will be validated by the Third-Party Monitoring Agency (TPMA) and will be verified as per the agreed terms of references. (ii) Procurement 56. Applicable Procurement Regulation. Procurement activities will be conducted in accordance with the: “The World Bank Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers - Procurement in Investment Project Financing, Goods, Works, Non-Consulting and Consulting Services” 5th edition, dated September 2023. The Borrower will also ensure that the Project is conducted in accordance with the provisions of the “Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants,” dated October 15, 2006, and revised in January 2011 and as of July 1, 2016 (Anti‐Corruption Guidelines). As required by the World Bank’s Procurement Framework, a Project Procurement Strategy for Development (PPSD) including a comprehensive, fit- for-purpose Procurement Plan for the first 18 months of the Project has been prepared. The Project will use Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement (STEP) to plan, record, and track procurement transactions. 57. Procurement implementation arrangements. The MoEn will be responsible for overall Project procurement activities through the PMU that will be established to include, among others, a Project coordinator (technical), procurement, and financial officer. The MoEn has limited experience in WB-financed projects and procurement regulations, with little experience in procurement planning, monitoring, and contract management; therefore, the PMU will need to be supported by an experienced procurement specialist to provide support during the procurement cycle, especially while contracting the UNDP or other UN Agency and to provide support in supervising the contracts with the UN Agency. As per updated Procurement Procedure for IPF 2024, the Contract with UN agency, regardless of value, will be subject to Bank’s prior review. Draft POM with detailed project procurement arrangements and applicable thresholds has been developed by MoEn. 58. Key procurements under the Project. The Project activities under components 1,2 and 3 will be providing technical assistance, knowledge management, institutional strengthening and capacity building, and advisory services, as well as procuring essential facilities, and equipment to support the technical assistance. The Project will also finance works to manage and dispose of hazardous waste. The MoEn will engage UNDP or other UN Agency to support the management and implementation of Project activities and sign an output agreement with the agency. Component 4 will finance a few simple and small-value procurement of goods and consultants’ services for project management, M&E, and financial audit. 59. Procurement risks of the Project are identified as “ High” due to : (i) Limited experience of MoEn in working on Bank financed projects; (ii) limited capacity of the implementing agency (MoEn) in World Bank procurement policy and procedures, procurement planning and management contracts, (iii) the volatile political economy; (v) high perception of fraud and corruption in a high risk and weak control environment, (iv) complexity of coordination with other stakeholders such as ministries and public institutions; and (v) possible delays in implementation due to the occasional escalation in the security situation of the country, long decision-making process, and delay in registration of contracts in Ministry of Planning (MoP) national investment budget, and (vi) restricted travel/mobility of Bank staff and difficulty to supervise Project sites; poor internet service to use Bank systems, Page 17 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) e.g., Client Connection and STEP. More details on procurement risks and mitigation measures are outlined in Annex 1. C. Legal Operational Policies @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padlegalpolicy#doctemplate Legal Operational Policies Triggered? Projects on International Waterways OP 7.50 No Projects in Disputed Area OP 7.60 No D. Environmental and Social 60. The Environment Risk Rating is considered High. The overall outcome of the Project will be positive, as the Project supports environmentally sound management of POPs and hazardous chemicals in Iraq. However, POPs are highly toxic and exposure to these substances can happen through food, environment, or accidents. Some or many of the impacts will cause significant, long-term, irreversible Environment, Health, and Safety (EHS) risks and adverse impacts on the population and environment. The exposure could happen during the implementation of Project activities such as handling (collection, packaging, storage) and disposal of POPs, leading to EHS/ Occupational Health and Safety risks to the people involved in the operations and to the neighboring communities. Some of the impacts cannot be mitigated or can be addressed with special interventions requiring complex and/or unproven mitigation and/or compensation measures or techniques. In addition, the Project activities could also lead to contamination of soil from spills of OPs/ PCBs and hazardous chemicals during sampling, temporary storage, and treatment/ disposal stage. Other factors considered in this risk rating are that POPs can be transported by wind and water, most POPs generated in one country can and do affect people and wildlife far from where they are used and released. The other criteria are the fragility of Iraqi environment which already suffered from high level of contamination at all fields, and the Project is the first high risk ESF project with MoEn which will pose a challenge to manage. Therefore, the environment risk has been rated as ‘High’. 61. The Social Risk Rating is considered Moderate. Although the true extent of POPs and hazardous waste contaminated land in Iraq is yet to be confirmed, a significant area of land is polluted by hydrocarbons and other chemicals. This situation leads to health and safety impacts on local communities and potentially placing an additional burden on the already strained social welfare and human health. In terms of impacts, based on the available information, implementation of various activities through the Project are not expected to involve acquisition of private land and cause direct adverse social impacts. However, occupational health and safety impacts to the workers and local communities are likely during implementation. Also, many of the storage sites of OPs are in the warehouses/ store yards and isolated industrial sites. Hence, no loss of agriculture revenue and livelihood impacts are anticipated. 62. The Project will undertake proper measures to reduce environmental and social risks and impacts through environmental and social mitigation measures defined in various environmental and social instruments of the Project such as Environmental and Social Management Framework, Stakeholder Engagement Plan, SEA/SH Page 18 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) prevention and response plan, and Labor Management Plan. These instruments have been reviewed by the Bank and disclosed by the World Bank and MoEn on November 13, 2023. In line with World Bank’s Environmental and Social Framework requirements and complying to environmental and social standards and Environmental and Social Commitment Plan agreed for the Project, appropriate instruments will be prepared during the implementation phase, for each of the sites prioritized where OPs and PCBs containment and management will be conducted. These instruments will evaluate all environmental and social risks including labor influx, child labor, gender-based aspects, discrimination, and impacts on local communities and appropriate mitigation measures will be identified and implemented. Engagement of stakeholders in all phases of the Project and periodic monitoring according to the World Bank Environmental and Social Framework will also be ensured. Active efforts will be made to seek stakeholders’ feedback on the design and implementation of the Project activities. The modes and frequency of engagement is identified in the Stakeholder Engagement Plan. Overall Project level and sub- project level functional GM will also be established and communicated during the stakeholder consultations. The Project GM is the same as the MoEn’s GM system. The GM system will include multi-level arrangements for registering and addressing grievances and complaints from program-affected people, building on the existing functional system of the MoEn which is receiving and addressing complaints mainly via the nation-wide system. The existing GM was assessed against good international practice including Environmental and Social Standard 10 and recommended improvements for accessibility and effectiveness, standard operating procedures; expanded outreach; community-based dispute resolution mechanisms; referral protocols for complaints related to labor and working conditions and SEA/SH. V. GRIEVANCE REDRESS SERVICES 63. Grievance Redress. Communities and individuals who believe that they are adversely affected by a project supported by the World Bank may submit complaints to existing project-level grievance mechanisms or the Bank’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS). The GRS ensures that complaints received are promptly reviewed to address project-related concerns. Project affected communities and individuals may submit their complaint to the Bank’s independent Accountability Mechanism (AM). The AM houses the Inspection Panel, which determines whether harm occurred, or could occur, as a result of Bank non-compliance with its policies and procedures, and the Dispute Resolution Service, which provides communities and borrowers with the opportunity to address complaints through dispute resolution. Complaints may be submitted to the AM at any time after concerns have been brought directly to the attention of Bank Management and after Management has been given an opportunity to respond. For information on how to submit complaints to the Bank’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS), visit http://www.worldbank.org/GRS. For information on how to submit complaints to the Bank’s Accountability Mechanism, visit https://accountability.worldbank.org. VI. KEY RISKS 64. The overall residual risk to achieving the PDO is rated ‘Substantial.’ 65. Political and governance (High). Considering the political instability in the country and geopolitical risks, the political and governance risk is rated as ‘high.’ These risks will impact the ability of implementing the Project by MoEn and other participating ministries. Finalization of NIP and other Policy/ regulatory measures envisaged by the Project will also be impacted by the governance risks in the country. To mitigate these risks, the task team will (i) monitor the developments in GoI that could impact the Project, (ii) ensure close co-ordination between the Page 19 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) Bank and GoI to appropriately resolve bottlenecks and pending issues, and (iii) adapt Project activities to changing governance priorities of GoI, but within the overall framework of achieving the PDO. 66. Macroeconomics (Moderate). Iraq is facing macroeconomic risks related to external shocks including the volatility in oil prices and the high financing needs for reconstruction and investment. Since the Project is fully grant financed, these dynamics are unlikely to create bottlenecks in financing the Project. However, Macroeconomic risks are likely to affect the counterpart financing envisaged for sustaining the activities beyond the Project. The Project has tried to mitigate these risks by identifying these commitments through in-kind contribution of existing staff of participating ministries, ongoing programs of GoI already planned through the national budget. In addition, other mitigation measures will be designed during the implementation phase of the Project, as appropriate. Macroeconomic risks, hence, are rated ‘moderate.’ 67. Sector strategies and Policies (Moderate). The regulatory framework and technical capacity of institutions in Iraq to manage hazardous and chemical substances needs strengthening. However, the Project has been developed in response to GoI’s commitments under the Stockholm Convention and number of initiatives by MoEn on chemical pollution. This indicates a reasonably good level sectoral framework and necessary institutional support for the Project. In addition, the Project will support strengthening policy and regulatory framework for hazardous waste and chemicals management. Considering this, the risks on sector strategies and policies is rated as ‘Moderate.’ 68. Technical design (Substantial). The Project activities, especially treatment and disposal of POPs envisaged under component 2 are technically complex. However, the technologies are well established, and Bank has successfully implemented these technologies in similar countries (Egypt and Lebanon) in the region. Given the security scenario in Iraq, the participation of international consultants and contractors may be limited, which could hinder Project implementation, as envisaged. The risk is proposed to be mitigated by encouraging the collaboration of local agencies with international consultants, deployment of qualified and experienced local professionals (where feasible), additional technical support by the Bank team and exploring the feasibility of in-country disposal of POPs. Accordingly, the technical design risk of the Project has been rated as ‘substantial.’ 69. Institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability (Substantial). The ‘Chemicals and Contaminated Sites Assessments Division’ of MoEn has developed good capacity with regard to chemicals and hazardous waste management through support from World Bank and various UN agencies. However, MoEn has implemented small technical assistance projects supported by the World Bank and not any major investment projects. Hence, they have limited knowledge of the Bank’s fiduciary and ESF requirements. On the other hand, MoA and MoElec have been working with the World Bank on various sectoral projects. Considering this, the institutional capacity risk for implementation and sustainability of the Project is rated ‘substantial.’ This risk is proposed to be mitigated through hiring UNDP or other UN agency to support implementation of some parts of the project (components 1,2 and 3), providing ‘handholding’ support to GoI institutions through Bank team and consultants hired for the Project and following ‘learning by doing approach’ for all Project activities. 70. Fiduciary (High). Fiduciary risk is rated ‘High,’ as elaborated in the fiduciary section of appraisal summary above. 71. Environmental and Social Risks (High). The environmental risk is rated “high” and social risk is rated “moderate,” as elaborated in the appraisal summary section above. 72. Stakeholders (Substantial). Given the range of stakeholders both within the Government and with local communities, the stakeholders’ risk is rated as ‘substantial.’ To address this risk, the Project will support a pro - Page 20 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) active and inclusive stakeholder and citizen engagement process and has developed an inclusive communication and a stakeholder engagement plan with an objective to maintain close consultation with different public and private stakeholders and civil society in implementing the Project. 73. Other - Conflict and Violence (High). The risk due to ‘Conflict and Violence’ is rated as high due to volatile security situation in Iraq. In addition, Bank team’s access to Iraq remains limited due to security consideration and political instability. This makes the Project implementation difficult. To mitigate this situation, the Bank team will adopt flexible approaches such as (i) virtual missions; (ii) reverse implementation missions in Jordan or Beirut; (iii) deployment of alternate monitoring arrangements such as hiring Third Party Monitoring Agency and local experts; (iv) consider access restrictions and quickly adapt to changing circumstances on the ground. The team will also rely on WBG’s security assessments and FCV monitoring systems and plan implementation support missions accordingly. Page 21 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project(P178935) VII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING @#&OPS~Doctype~OPS^dynamics@padannexresultframework#doctemplate PDO Indicators by PDO Outcomes Baseline Closing Period Improve the management and safe disposal of POPs and Hazardous Chemicals in Iraq OPs and PCBs destroyed or disposed or contained (Metric ton) May/2024 Dec/2031 0 4,000 Policies and regulations for the management of PoPs, Hazardous Chemicals and pollution hotspots developed (Number) May/2024 Dec/2031 0 4 Share of POPs monitored through the management information system established through the project (Percentage) May/2024 Dec/2031 0 50 Direct Project Beneficiaries (Number) May/2024 Dec/2031 0 7,000,000 Intermediate Indicators by Components Baseline Closing Period Improving the management framework for POPs and hazardous chemicals Updated National Implementation Plan for POPs prepared (Yes/No) May/2024 Dec/2031 No Yes Capacity of participating agencies in sampling and analyzing the number of chemicals including OPs, PCBs (Number) May/2024 Dec/2031 0 15 ➢Analytical capacity of Ministry of Environment in sampling and analyzing the number of hazardous chemicals (Number) 0 6 Page 22 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project(P178935) National Inventory of POPs (OPs and PCBs) completed and system for their tracking and management operational (Yes/No) May/2024 Dec/2031 No Yes Staff trained in the inventory, assessment and management of chemical contaminated sites (hotspots) and POPs (Number) May/2024 Dec/2031 0 240 ➢Staff trained in detailed assessment, management and remediation of hazardous chemical contaminated sites (hotspots) (Number) 0 60 Management and disposal of high-risk priority stockpiles of POPs in agriculture and power sectors OPs contained and/ or dispsosed (Metric ton) May/2024 Dec/2030 0 1,000 PCB contaminated equipment and waste managed and / or destroyed (Metric ton) May/2024 Dec/2030 0 3,000 Management of chemical pollution hotspots Detailed assessments conducted and remediation plans prepared for chemical contaminated sites (hotspots) (Number) May/2024 Dec/2025 0 3 Project management, Monitoring and Evaluation Page 23 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: PDO Indicators by PDO Outcomes Improve the management and safe disposal of POPs and Hazardous Chemicals in Iraq OPs and PCBs waste destroyed or disposed or contained (Metric ton) This indicator measures activities implemented by the project to improve management and disposal of high risk stockpiles Description of POPs (1000 tons of Obsolete Pesticides and 3000 tons of PCBs). Frequency Half-yearly Data source Project Managmeent Unit (PMU) and Project Implementation Entity (PIE) Data will be collected and analysed through (i) inventory of OPs and PCBs developed under component 1, (ii) detailed Methodology for Data assessment and treatment/destruction/ disposal plan developed under component 1 and (ii) actual Collection treatment/destruction/ disposal of 1000 tons of OPs and 3000 tons of PCBs carried out under component 2 of the Project. Responsibility for Data Implementing Agency (MoEn) with support from PMU and PIE Collection Policies and regulations for the management of PoPs, Hazardous Chemicals and pollution hotspots developed (Number) This indicator measures the number of policy and regulations supported by the project through sub-components 1.2 and Description Component 3(b) for the management of POPs and hazardous chemicals. Frequency Half-yearly Data source PMU Data will be collected and analysed through (i) various assessments, policy, regulations and standards developed by the Methodology for Data consultants (ii) review and approval process of MoEn and other GoI institutions under components 1.2, 1.3 and 3 of the Collection Project. Responsibility for Data Implementing Agency (MoEn) with support from PMU Collection Share of POPs monitored through the management information system estagblished through the project (Percentage) This indicator measures the establishment of management information system through the project and its performance in Description monitoring the usage, management and disposal of POPs in Iraq. Frequency Half-yearly till the system is established and monthly after system is operational Data source MoEn, MoA and MoElec Progress of developing the management information system will be monitored based on the progress of work being done Methodology for Data by the relevant consultants. Subsequently, establishment of the system and its usage will be monitored based on the Collection regular updates shared by the MoEn, MoA and MoElec. Responsibility for Data MoEn, MoA and MoElec Collection Direct Project Beneficiaries (Number) This indicator measures the number of people benefitted due to the treatment, disposal and management of OPs and PCBs Description through various activities the project. Frequency After completion of treament and disposal activities at respective locations. Data source PMU and PIE Gender disagregated data on the people working and living around the OPs and PCB storage sites that will be treated with Methodology for Data Project financing, will be collected from the site owning and managing authorities and local administration. Necessary Collection beneficiary surveys will be carried out, if appropriate and adequate information is not available. Responsibility for Data Implementing Agency (MoEn) with support from PMU and its consultants Collection Page 24 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Improving the management framework for POPs and hazardous chemicals Updated National Implementation Plan for POPs prepared (Yes/No) This indicator measures the completion of inventory and assessment of all POPs and updating the national plan as per the Description requirements of Stockholm convention. Frequency Half Yearly Data source PMU and PIE Methodology for Data Progress reports by the implementing agency and deliverables by the consultants. Collection Responsibility for Data Implementing Agency (MoEn) with support from PMU and its consultants Collection Capacity of participating agencies in sampling and laboratory analys of chemicals including OPs, PCBs (Number) This indictor measures the completion of activities related to procurement of laboratory equipment and capacity Description enhancement of the participating agencies to analyze chemical substances including POPs and other hazardous chemicals. Frequency Half yearly Data source MoEn, MoA, MoElec Methodology for Data Progress reports from MoEn and laboratory analysis reports Collection Responsibility for Data Implementing Agency (MoEn) Collection Analytical capacity of Ministry of Environment in sampling and analyis of hazardous chemicals (Number) Description This indicator measures the capacity of Ministry of Environment in analyzing the number of hazardous chemicals Frequency Half yearly Data source MoEn Methodology for Data Progress reports from MoEn and laboratory analysis reports Collection Responsibility for Data Implementing Agency (MoEn) Collection National Inventory of POPs (OPs and PCBs) completed and system for their tracking and management operational (Yes/No) This indicator measures the completion of inventory and assessment of POPs (including OPs and PCBs) and establishment Description of a tracking system for their monitoring/ management. Frequency Half Yearly Data source PIE (on the design) and MoEn, MoA and MoElec on the operation of tracking system Methodology for Data Outputs and progress reports from the PMU on the tracking systm and monthly reports from MoEn, MoA and MoElec on Collection the tracking system. Responsibility for Data Implementing Agency (MoEn) with support from PMU Collection Staff trained in the inventory, assessment and management of pollution hotspots and POPs (Number) This indicator measures the number of staff trained in the participating ministries in carrying out inventory, testing and Description monitoring and management of all POPs and chemical contaminated sites (hotspots). Frequency Half yearly Data source Implementing Agency (MoEn) Methodology for Data Progress reports from MoEn and PMU Collection Responsibility for Data Implementing Agency (MoEn) with support from PMU Collection Page 25 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) Staff trainined in detailed assessment, management and remediatin of hazardous chemical contaminated sites (Number) This indicator supports training the staff of MoEn in conducting inventories, testing, assessment, management and Description monitoring of pollution hoptspots. Frequency Half yearly Data source Implementing Agency (MoEn) Methodology for Data Progress reports from MoEn and PMU Collection Responsibility for Data Implementing Agency (MoEn) with support from PMU Collection Management and disposal of high-risk priority stockpiles of POPs in agriculture and power sectors OPs contained and/ or dispsosed (Metric ton) This indicator measures the quantity of OPs disposed through the project as per the requirements of Stockholm Description Convention. Monthly progress review after the commencement of the activity and final estimate after the completion of treatment and Frequency disposal activities at respective locations. Data source PMU and Contractor performing the treatment and disposal operations Methodology for Data Progress reports from MoEn through PMU and Contractor performing the treatment and disposal operations. Disposal Collection Certificates and Transboundary Shipment Documents. Responsibility for Data Implementing Agency (MoEn) with support from PMU and Contractor performing the treatment and disposal operations. Collection PCB contaminated equipment and waste managed and / or destroyed (Metric ton) This indicator measures the quantity of PCB contaminated substances disposed by the project in compliance to the Description requirements of Stockholm Convention. Monthly progress review after the commencement of the activity and final estimate after the completion of treament and Frequency disposal activities at respective locations. Data source PMU and Contractor performing the packaging and disposal operations Methodology for Data Progress reports from MoEn through PMU and Contractor performing the packaging and disposal operations. Destruction Collection Certificates and Transboundary Shipment Documents. Responsibility for Data Implementing Agency (MoEn) with support from PMU and Contractor performing the packaging and disposal operations. Collection Management of chemical pollution hotspots Detailed asessments and remeidation plans prepared for high risk priority hotpspots (Number) This indicator measures the successful completion of detailed assessment and preparation of remediation plans for the Description chemical contaminate sites (hotspots) in conflict affected governorates of Iraq. Frequency Half Yearly Data source PMU and PIE Methodology for Data Outputs and progress reports from Contractors and MoEn Collection Responsibility for Data Implementing Agency (MoEn) with support from PMU and UN Agency Collection Project management, Monitoring and Evaluation Page 26 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) ANNEX 1: Implementation Arrangements and Support Plan & Economic Analysis COUNTRY: Republic of Iraq Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project A. Institutional Arrangements 1. The overall responsibility of managing environment policies, programs, and enforcement of legislations in Iraq rests with the Ministry of Environment (MoEn). The ministry is also the national authority in charge of the global environmental treaties such as the Stockholm, Rotterdam, Minamata and Basel Conventions and international programs such as GEF. Among the number of environment legislations in the country, ‘Protection and Improvement of the Environment Law No. 27 of 2009’ is an umbrella legislation, through which MoEn operates to perform its regulatory functions. 2. In its earlier form as Ministry of Health and Environment, MoEn has experience in managing World Bank financed Emergency Environment Management Project (P099809) and COVID 19 Vaccination Project (P177038). The ministry thus has some, but limited experience and familiarity with Bank fiduciary and ESF requirements. MoEn also actively works with multilateral agencies such as UNDP, UNEP, etc. on various environment management projects/ programs and understands the modalities of working with international agencies. 3. Considering its institutional mandate and experience in implementing environmental management activities, MoEn has been identified as implementing agency for the Project and will be responsible for the, (i) overall implementation of the project activities; (ii) monitoring the results towards the achievement of agreed outcomes; (iii) managing the Project according to the agreed procurement and financial management arrangements, (iv) ensuring the implementation of ESF requirements and agreed ESCP, and (v) complying with all reporting requirements of the Project as per the GA. 4. MoEn will establish a PMU comprising qualified and experienced technical, financial and procurement environment, and social specialists compatible to the requirements of the Project activities, to perform the functions of implementing agency. The PMU will support MoEn in the overall planning, implementation and management of Project activities and will supervise the implementation of activities by the consultants, contractors, and other agencies. 5. To further support the Project implementation, MoEn will engage UNDP or other UN Agency for management and implementation of Components 1, 2 and 3. For this purpose, MoEn will sign an output agreement with the selected UN Agency to execute the activities as designed by the Project. MoEn has initiated discussions with UNDP for this purpose, however a flexible approach is being adopted, so that the government can sign the agreement with any other UN Agency subjected to prior approval of the Bank. The PMU at MoEn will oversee the activities of the selected UN Agency in close coordination with the GoI, particularly with the relevant ministries and all stakeholders, with an objective to build their capacity. Page 27 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) 6. MoEn will establish a Project Steering Committee (PSC), to facilitate coordination and active participation of various agencies, ministries, and other stakeholders and monitor the overall implementation of the Project. The PSC will be established in consultation with GoI ministries, departments, agencies, and other stakeholders relevant to the Project and will include MoEn, MoA, MoElec, Ministry of Oil, Ministry of Industry and Minerals, Ministry of Planning, Ministry of Science and Technology, Ministry of Finance, and other stakeholders as needed. 7. A POM has been prepared to guide the implementation of the Project. The POM describes in detail, the implementation arrangements; roles and responsibilities of the MoEn, PMU and other participating agencies; agreed Fiduciary and ESF procedures; overall implementation plan; progress reporting requirements and arrangements for the monitoring and measurement of results. 8. MoEn will be responsible for results monitoring and will ensure continuous monitoring of Project implementation with support from PMU and in close collaboration with local partners and assess progress towards the achievement of the end targets agreed in the results framework. As per the M&E Plan of the Project, an expert will be recruited under Component 4 of the Project and will be responsible for performing the M&E functions. MoEn will report on implementation progress and achievement towards the targets stipulated in the Results Framework on a half-yearly basis to the WB. The POM developed for the Project includes the approach and methodology proposed to be followed for monitoring the results. 9. The Bank will undertake Implementation Support missions twice a year to monitor implementation, compliance with environmental and social provisions, and will evaluate Project performance according to established performance monitoring indicators. Considering security situation in the Iraq, physical or virtual or reverse missions will be organized, as appropriate. The implementation support missions will include field visits and discussion with relevant stakeholders, government agencies and implementing agencies. All Project monitoring reports would be made public in accessible forms. 10. In addition, a Third-Party Monitoring Agency (TPMA) will be engaged by the Bank to monitor Project activities. The TPMA will report on the progress of all activities, outputs, status of achieving the results and the fiduciary and ESF implementation. The TPMA will share its monitoring report with the World Bank and the findings of the report will be discussed with MoEn and corrective actions with timelines will be agreed. MoEn accordingly will submit a report on the corrective actions taken to address issues identified by the TPMA to the World Bank. 11. A Mid Term Review of the Project will be conducted three years after Project effectiveness and an Implementation Completion and Results Report will be prepared within six months of the Project closing. Prior to these, MoEn will conduct its own review of the Project progress and implementation performance. B. Procurement 12. Applicable Procurement Regulation. Procurement activities will be conducted in accordance with the: “The World Bank Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers. Procurement in Investment Project Financing, Goods, Works, Non-Consulting and Consulting Services” 5th edition, dated September 2023. The Borrower will also ensure that the Project is conducted in accordance with the provisions of the “Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants,” dated October 15, 2006, and revised in January 2011 and as of July 1, 2016 (“Anti‐Corruption Guidelines”). Page 28 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) 13. Key procurements under the Project. The Project activities under components 1,2 and 3 will be providing technical assistance, knowledge management, institutional strengthening and capacity building, and advisory services, as well as procuring essential facilities, equipment to support the technical assistance. The Project will also finance works to manage and dispose of hazardous waste. The MoEn will engage UNDP or other UN Agency to support the management and implementation of part of the Project activities, and will sign an output agreement with the UN Agency, using standard agreement. Component 4 will finance a few simple and small- value procurement of goods and consultants’ services for Project management, M&E. 14. Procurement implementation arrangements. The MoEn will be responsible for overall Project procurement activities through the PMU that will be established to include, among others, a Project coordinator (technical), procurement, and financial officer. The MoEn has limited experience in Bank financed projects and procurement regulations, with little experience in procurement planning, monitoring, and contract management; therefore, the PMU will need to be supported by an experienced procurement specialist, to provide support during the whole procurement cycle including hiring UNDP or other UN Agency and supervision of its contract. The POM includes the detailed project procurement arrangements and applicable thresholds. 15. Project Procurement Strategy for Development (PPSD). In line with the requirement of the Procurement Regulations, a PPSD including a comprehensive, fit-for-purpose Procurement Plan for the first 18 months of the Project has been prepared by MoEn with WB support. The provisions of the Recipient’s procurement plan for the Project (“Procurement Plan”), as elaborated under Section IV of the Procurement Regulations, will apply, and the same may be updated from time to time in agreement with the World Bank. 16. Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement (STEP). The PMU at MoEn shall use the World Bank online procurement planning and tracking tool (STEP), to prepare, clear and update its procurement plans and conduct procurement transactions as referred to in the Procurement Regulations Section V, article 5.9. The details for the first 18-month procurement plan had been finalized with the Recipient and will be published on the World Bank website through STEP. The Bank’s procurement team will provide training and close support. 17. Advance procurement. To speed up Project implementation, advance procurement is key and may apply to: (1) prepare ToRs; (2) advertise expressions of interest; (3) identify qualified consultants; (4) launching procurement process to engage UNDP or other UN Agency up to award of contract. 18. Procurement Risks and mitigation measures: Procurement risk is considered as “High”, and main risks are identified as : (i) lack of experience of MoEn in working with WB-financed projects; (ii) limited capacity of the implementing agency (MoEn) in World Bank procurement policy and procedures, procurement planning and management contracts, (iii) the socio-economic and political situation of the country; (v) high perception of fraud and corruption in a high risk and weak control environment, (iv) complexity of coordination with other concerned stakeholders such as ministries and other public institutions; and (v) possible delays in implementation due to the security conditions in Iraq, long decision-making process, and delay in registration of contracts in MOP national investment budget, and (vi) restricted travel/mobility of WB staff and difficult to supervise project sites; with weak internet connectivity to use WB’s mandatory systems, such as Client Connections, STEP, etc. Page 29 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) 19. The following measures are proposed to mitigate these risks: (i) hiring a qualified procurement consultant to support the PMU in conducting procurement activities and contract management; (ii) hiring UNDP or other UN Agency to support MoEn in delivering the services required under components 1,2 and 3 and the contract with UN agency, regardless of the value, will be subject to Bank’s prior review; (iii) introduce flexibility in the qualification criteria, and appropriate packaging to be set based on market analysis; (iv) describe in detail and follow the procurement processes and procedures in the POM; (v) MoEn should commit to ensure the contracts are included in the national investment budget plan as needed and (vi) use of technology to conduct virtual online missions and MoEn shall ensure access to high speed internet to utilize systems. Another foreseen risk is potential delays due to GoI’s internal processes and approvals. This risk would be mitigated by advance planning and delegation of authority at appropriate levels as well as a commitment by GoI to comply with agreed procurement and implementation plans. 20. Procurement method and Prior Review threshold. Based on the assessment, the procurement plan shall set forth those contracts subject to the Bank’s prior review for High-risk risk environment. All other contracts shall be subject to post-procurement review by the Bank. The Table below provides the thresholds for each type of procurement. Prior Review Thresholds Type of Procurement Prior Review High-Risk Thresholds (US$ million) Civil Works 5.00 Goods, information technology & non-consulting services 1.50 Consultants—firms 0.50 Consultants—individuals 0.20 Contract with UNDP or other UN Agency Regardless of the Value C. Financial Management Financial Management Assessment 21. The financial management arrangements at the MoEn were reviewed by the Bank team. Based on the result of the assessment, the FM risk, as a component of the fiduciary risk, is rated as ‘High’. With the proposed mitigation measures, MoEn will have the FM requirements and will have an acceptable FM system, and the residual FM risk rating would be ‘Moderate’. The following are the risks identified. ▪ Difficulties in opening a project designated account. ▪ Overall weakness and shortcomings in the control environment including banking system. ▪ MoEn has internal bylaws and procedures, however they do not meet Bank requirements. ▪ MoEn does not have accounting software to record transactions and produce financial reports. 22. To mitigate these FM risks, the following mitigation measures are proposed: ▪ MoEn shall request the funds to be channeled from the Bank to the third-party using direct payments and UN advance through withdrawal applications accompanied by proper supporting documentation. Page 30 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) ▪ The Bank will engage a TPMA to validate that the services and activities have been conducted as per the provisions of the Grant Agreement, Project Appraisal Document, and the POM. ▪ MoEn will utilize a ring-fenced system to implement the Project and will utilize excel spreadsheets to record daily transactions and produce the quarterly financial reports. ▪ MoEn prepared a POM which includes a FM chapter. ▪ Quarterly IFRs will be submitted within 45 days after the end of each quarter to the Bank. ▪ MoEn will get into a contract with an independent external financial auditor with terms of reference acceptable to the Bank to audit the Project Financial Statements (PFS). The financial auditor will prepare an audit report and management letter that will cover the financial operations, internal control and financial management systems and a comprehensive review Statements of Expenditures (SOEs) and will be due no later than six months after the end of each fiscal year. 23. The MoEn will assign/recruit a Financial Officer who will be responsible for handling the FM aspects of the Project under the supervision of the MoEn Project Manager. The project funds will be disbursed in USD and local currency and will be channeled from the World Bank to the third-party upon PMU’s request. Funds will be channeled from the World Bank using direct payments and UN advance disbursement methods through withdrawal applications accompanied by proper supporting documentation. Disbursement will be following the applicable procedures and the World Bank's Disbursement Handbook. IFRs and annual PFS will be used as a financial reporting mechanism, whereas Statement of Expenditures will be used for disbursement purposes. The Bank will provide the PMU with training and hands-on support to implement the FM activities. Summary of FM actions to be implemented Actions Deadline Finalize FM chapter of the POM 3 months after effectiveness Assign team for the Project including a financial officer 1 month after effectiveness Hire an independent external financial auditor 6 months from effectiveness D. Economic Analysis 24. Background. The Project is expected to produce tangible and intangible benefits although only the former is quantified and valued. The intangible investments strengthen the enabling environment (planning and management process, capacity building, etc.) which are essential for safely discarding to generate economic benefits in terms of prevented mortality and morbidity by reducing the health risks associated with keep these materials in unsafe storage. The benefits will accrue on: (i) workers handling those substances; (ii) local communities including women who may be exposed through contact or from contaminated water or food or inhalation in case these harmful substances are accidentally burnt; and (iii) the global environment from reduced accidental exposure from the release of dioxins and furans into the atmosphere. The development of an enabling environment yields intangible assets, with benefits that are difficult to quantify. For that reason, the ex-ante economic Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) considers only the more quantifiable health benefits associated with the safe discarding of the POPs and PCBs. Moreover, other World Bank POPs and PCBs projects are reported below to compare costs of safely handling POPs and PCBs. These would not only serve to benchmark interventions and guide the implementation of the Project, but also be used for the ex-post cost-effectiveness analysis. Page 31 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) 25. Cost Effectiveness Analysis to Benchmark Project Interventions and Guide Project Implementation. A Cost Effectiveness Analysis for handling, treating, and disposing of all POPs and PCBs was not carried out as cost alternatives still need to be calculated. Yet, other POPs and PCB cleanup projects are mentioned for ex-post benchmarking. The following projects focused on the repackaging, transport and disposal of POPs and treatment of PCBs: (i) Moldova POPs Stockpiles Management and Destruction Project (P090037) where the cost per ton of PCBs eliminated was US$4,200; (ii) China PCB Management and Disposal Demonstration Project (P082993) where each ton of eliminated PCB costed US$4,100; (iii) Lebanon PCB Management in the Power Sector Project (P122540) where the average cleanup cost was US$2,125 per ton; and (iv) Egypt’s Sustainable Persistent Organic Pollutants Management Project (P116230) where the cost of OPs exported was US$1,577 per ton on average, the average cost of OPs incinerated locally was US$311 per ton and the cost of PCBs exported was US$5,935 per ton including decontamination units, customs, PCB analysis and training. 26. Rapid Literature Risk Factors’ Review. International studies have shown increased risks of cancer, with malignant melanoma and other specific forms of cancer being of particular concern in the energy industry.13,14,15 For all-cause mortality, the evidence is more mixed prevalence rates cannot always be shown to be higher than national averages, which leads us to believe that occupational long-term high-level airborne and dermal exposure to commercial PCB mixtures is probably not associated with increased overall risk for cancer, but an elevated risk of rare cancers.16 For the purposes of the BCA, this uncertainty leads us to assume that the occupational exposure risk is no larger than the environmental risk posed to the local community. 27. A study in Sweden found that POPs were associated with an increased mortality risk,17 where individuals with the highest PCB levels had 50 percent excess mortality, especially from cardiovascular disease, compared with the other groups. Overall, elevated PCB levels in the blood corresponded to 0.7 excess deaths per year of the exposed population after 10 years. 28. Scope of benefit cost analysis and Assumptions. The primary quantifiable benefits of the Project are assumed to be the prevention of lost productivity due to excess mortality by the workforce in the electricity sector and the population surrounding contaminated sites. Other lost productivity costs related to occupational exposure, cost of illness, as well as accidental exposure during clean-up, are not included in the analysis. 29. The target beneficiaries amount to 7.05 million and are illustrated in Table below by site. 13 Loomis et al. (1997) 14 Prince et al. (2006) 15 Rudera et al. (2014) 16 Bøtker Pedersen et al. (2013) 17 Lind et al. (2019) Page 32 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) Project beneficiaries by type of substance and location Target Area Population Beneficiaries OP sites 466,000 80,500 Suwaira warehouse 161,000 Khan Dhari site 305,000 PCB sites 18,271,269 6,973,057 Ninewa Production and Transmission Station sites 3,700,000 Kirkuk Production and Transmission Station sites 1,031,000 Qadisiyah Production and Transmission Station sites 348,700 Diwaniyah Transmission Station sites 650,927 Hilla Production Station site 364,700 Najaf Production and Transmission Station sites 1,000,000 Al Musieb Production Station site 89,000 Baghdad Production and Transmission Station sites 7,665,000 Hamren Production Station site 25,000 Sad Hadeitha Production Station site 46,500 Basra Production Station sites 1,400,000 Al Nasseriya Production Station site 560,000 Babylon Production Station site 2,065,042 Karbala Transmission Station sites 690,100 Total 18,737,269 7,053,557 30. Key assumptions considered for the analysis included the following. ▪ Although the economic analysis assesses the Project on its own merits, Project costs are not adjusted for price distortions and include taxes. ▪ An actual discount rate of 6 percent per annum for economic analysis over 25 years. ▪ All benefits are calculated in 2023 constant prices. ▪ The beneficiaries are the cohort that is considered at the end of the Project. ▪ Mortality rate of averted 0.07 percent is considered for all Project beneficiaries. ▪ Benefits accruing from reductions in excess mortality begin 10 years after Project closure for the next 10 years. ▪ Value of statistical life for the reduction of risk of premature deaths in Iraq as US$386,782 in 2022 for each premature death and GDP per capita at US$4,891. 31. The economic analysis is performed by using a 6 percent social discount rate over 25 years based on the opportunity cost of capital and country risk over the Project period. A sensitivity analysis is performed under a pessimistic scenario (a 10 percent increase in economic costs and a 10 percent decrease in benefits over the base case and an 8 percent discount rate) and an optimistic scenario (a 10 increase in benefits and a 10 percent decrease over the base case and a 4 percent discount rate). In addition, Project viability switch-off points for equal cost increment and benefit decrement, cost increment, and benefit decrement are computed. Page 33 The World Bank Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Chemical Hotspots Management Project (P178935) 32. Benefit Cost Analysis Results. The Table below summarizes the results of the economic analysis. The Project is viable under all three scenarios with a net present value far exceeding the investment costs. The base case scenario has a positive Net Present Value of US$386.7 million as well as a robust Internal rate of return of 23 percent and positive Present Value benefit-cost ratio of 28.1. The Project, which remains viable under the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, is more sensitive to a decrease in benefits than to an increase in costs under the viable scenarios that are reflected by the switch-off points. Cost/Benefit, Sensitivity, and Scenario Analysis Summary Key Economic Indicators Project 25 Years Discounted At Scenario Optimistic @4% Base Case @6% Pessimistic @8% Cost/Benefit Analysis NPV (US$, millions) 655.20 386.70 203.40 IRR (%) 23% 23% 22% PV benefit/cost ratio 43.20 28.10 15.00 Viability Yes Yes Yes Sensitivity Analysis Benefit + 10%, Cost -10% Cost + 10%, Benefit -10% NPV (US$, millions) 723.80 386.70 239.10 ERR (%) 24% 23% 23% PV benefit/cost ratio 52.80 28.10 16.90 Switch-off point >cost = <benefit (±%) ±96 ±93 ±88 Page 34