Poverty & Equity Brief October 2024 THAILAND Following decades of remarkable declines in poverty and inequality, progress has slowed since 2015. Between 2015 and 2021, the national poverty rate decreased from 7.2 percent to 6.3 percent, while the poverty rate at the upper middle-income poverty line of $6.85 per day (in 2017 PPP) fell from 14.6 percent to 12.2 percent. The Prosperity Gap, a new measure of shared prosperity introduced by the World Bank to determine the average factor by which an individual's consumption must increase to reach a prosperity standard of $25 per day (in 2017 PPP), slightly declined from 2.3 to 2.2 over this six-year period. Declining economic growth and stagnant structural transformation have shifted poverty reduction from predominantly relying on labor income to a greater dependence on social transfers. Additionally, an aging population and difficulties in reaching the most marginalized segments of the population present significant challenges to further reducing poverty. Although inequality decreased between 2015 and 2021, the reduction was modest despite the expansion of social protection programs. The national consumption Gini index fell slightly from 36.2 to 35.1, and the national income Gini index decreased from 44.5 to 43. Wealth remains highly concentrated, with 10 percent of the population holding 75 percent of wealth, placing Thailand among the countries with the greatest inequality in the global ranking. With the slow economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, household income grew at a modest rate of 3 percent per year from 2021 to 2023. Household debt levels declined in 2023 but remained high at nearly seven times the average household income. Sluggish income growth and financial stress have put pressure on household consumption, which grew by a mere 1 percent per year in real terms during this period. The poverty headcount rate (based on the upper middle-income poverty line of $6.85 per day, 2017 PPP) is estimated to have declined from 12.2 percent in 2021 to 9.4 percent in 2023. In 2024, poverty is projected to decline further to 8.2 percent, supported by accelerating growth and easing inflation. The one-time cash transfer to 14.6 million state welfare cardholders, if implemented in 2024, will further reduce poverty. While consumption-stimulating measures targeting low-income households can accelerate poverty and inequality reduction in the short term, structural challenges and risks associated with high household debt levels and escalating impacts of climate events on low-income families will remain. $2.15 Poverty Rate $6.85 Poverty Rate Gini Index Prosperity Gap 2021 2021 2021 2021 0% 12.2% 34.9 2.2 Poverty Rate Inequality 60 70 60 50 50 40 Poverty Rate (%) Gini Index 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020 $2.15 Poverty Rate $3.65 Poverty Rate $6.85 Poverty Rate Gini Index Poverty at Different Lines Poverty Line Number of Poor Rate Year (Thousands) (%)   National Poverty Line 3,893.1 5.4 2022         International Poverty Line ($2.15/day) 10.0 0.0 2021         Lower Middle Income Class Poverty Line ($3.65/day) 401.2 0.6 2021         Upper Middle Income Class Poverty Line ($6.85/day) 8,717.1 12.2 2021         Multidimensional Poverty Measure   0.1 2021         Group and Multidimensional Poverty Poverty by Group Poverty Rate (%) Multidimensional Poverty Components (% of Pop.)   Urban population N/A Daily income less than US$2.15 per person 0 Rural population N/A At least one school-aged child is not enrolled in school 0.5 Males 12.5 No adult has completed primary education 12.6 Females 11.9 No access to limited-standard drinking water 0.4 0 to 14 years old 20.4 No access to limited-standard sanitation 0.2 15 to 64 years old 10.0 No access to electricity 0.1 65 and older 13.3 Without education (16+) 24.7 Primary education (16+) 14.0 Secondary education (16+) 8.6 Tertiary/post-secondary education (16+) 1.1 Note: Data for the "Poverty by Group" table is derived from a 2021 survey and data for the "Multidimensional Poverty Components" table is derived from a 2021 survey. The rates in the "Poverty by Group" table above are shown at the $6.85 upper-middle income line. "N/A" denotes a missing/removed value, while "N/A*" refers to a value which was removed due to having fewer than 30 observations. Poverty Data & Methodology Poverty and inequality statistics are estimated using data from the Thailand Socio-Economic Survey (SES), which is conducted annually by the National Statistical Office of Thailand. The National Economic and Social Development Council is responsible for producing and disseminating the official poverty and inequality statistics. While national and international trends in poverty generally align, they do not match exactly due to methodological differences. Both national and international measures use a welfare aggregate based on nominal consumption per capita. However, the main discrepancies arise from the different poverty lines employed. Thailand's national poverty estimates use household-level poverty lines that vary by household composition (age and gender) and incorporate regional price differences. In contrast, the World Bank measure is based on a single poverty line, which facilitates easier comparability across countries. Harmonization The numbers presented in this brief are based on the EAPPOV database. EAPPOV is a database of socio-economic statistics constructed using microdata from household surveys in the East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) region and is managed by the East Asia & Pacific Team for Statistical Development (EAPTSD). As of September 2024, the collection includes 21 countries and 127 surveys. Harmonized surveys in the EAPPOV database are compiled into 4 modules following Global Monitoring Database (GMD) Harmonization guidelines. A subset of the harmonized variables forms the basis of the GMD collection, including the welfare aggregate which is used for Global Poverty Monitoring. Terms of use of the data adhere to agreements with the original data producers. East Asia & Pacific Poverty Economist: Sailesh Tiwari /Sutirtha Roy