PHN Technical Note 87-8 POPULATION DYNAMICS IN NORTHEAST BRAZIL by Althea Hill May 1987 Population, Health and Nutrition Department World Bank The World Bank does not accept responsibility for the views expressed herein which are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the World Bank or to its affiliated organizations. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions are the results of research supported by the Bank; they do not necessarily represent official policy of the Bank. The designations employed, the presentation of material, and any maps used in this document are solely for the convenience of the reader and do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank or its affiliates concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitations of its boundaries, or national affiliation. 07, At PHN Technical Note 87-8 POPULATION DYNAMICS IN NORTHEAST BRAZIL ABSTRACT This paper was prepared for the forthcoming Northeast Brazil Economic Report. It reviews recent trends in fertility, mortality, migration, urbanization and population growth in Northeast Brazil and makes projections for the urban and rural populations of the region. The review of recent trends is based on newly available data from the 1980 census, a 1984 national demographic survey, a 1986 MCH/FP survey, and the vital registration system. These show that the Northeast, long considered an anomalous and backward region of low urbanization and unchanging high fertility and mortality, is steadily approaching the rest of Brazil in its demographic characteristics. Fertility has been falling, even- in the rural areas, with (as in the rest of Brazil) an acceleration of decline in the early 1980s. The majority of Northeasterners are now urban- dwelling, with much of the heavy traditional rural outflow to other parts of Brazil having changed direction into Northeastern towns and cities. This tendency is thought to have intensified in the early 1980s. The unfortunate exception to these general trends is mortality, which declined in parallel with the rest of Brazil up to the early 1980s, but unlike elsewhere may actually have risen during the period of drought and economic crisis. Thus the long-standing and heavy Northeastern disadvantage in mortality may have worsened. The projections are made under two alternative scenarios of success and failure, respectively, in the currently planned major initiative in North- eastern rural development. Under the assumption of success, fertility and mortality fall rapidly and rural emigration slows down. Under the assumption of failure, both fertility and mortality fall more slowly and rural emigration continues at current rates. Both scenarios result in rapid and massive urbanization of the Northeast over the next 30 years, due entirely to migration, with an accompanying strong shift in the balance of labor supply and need for social services to the urban population. Projected trends in the growth of the rural labor supply and social services needs, however, are very sensitive to the choice of scenario. Prepared by: Althea Hill Population, Health and Nutrition Department May 1987 첫 . List of Tables Table No. Page No. A.I.A Analysis of Brazil 1980 Census Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: National Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 A.1.B Analysis of Brazil 1980 Census Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Urban Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 A.1.C Analysis of Brazil 1980 Census Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Rural Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 A.2.A Analysis of Brazil 1980 Census Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Northeast Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 A.2.B Analysis of Brazil 1980 Census Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Northeast Urban Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 A.2.C Analysis of Brazil 1980 Census Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Northeast Rural Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 A.3.A Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: National Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 A.3.B Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Urban Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 A.3.C Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Rural Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 A.4.A Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Northeast Region................... 61 A.4.B Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: North east Urban Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 A.4.C Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Northeast Rural Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 A.5.A Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Southeast Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 A.5.B Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Southeast Urban Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 A.5.C Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Southeast Rural Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 A.6.A Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Central West Region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 A.6.B Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Central West Urban Population. . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 A.6.C Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Central West Rural Population. . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 A.7.A Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: South Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 ii A.7.B Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: South Urban Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 A.7.C Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: South Rural Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 A.8.A Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: North Region, Urban Population only. . . . . . . . . . 109 A.9 Brazil: Northeast Region Population Projection. . . . 113 List of Figures Fig. No. A.1 Estimated Trends in Childhood Mortality from Child Survival Data Brazil 1970 Census 1977 PNAD, 1980 Census and 1984 PNAD. . . . . . . . . . 133 A.2 Estimated Trends in Childhood Mortality from Child Survival Data Brazil, Northeast Region 1970 Census, 1977 PNAD, 1980 Census and 1984 PNAD . . . 134 A.3 Estimated Trends in Childhood Mortality from Child Survival Data Brazil, Southeast Region(s) 1970 Census, 1977 PNAD, 1984 PNAD . . . . . . . . . . . 135 A.4 Estimated Trends in Childhood Mortality from Child Survival Data Brazil, Central West Region 1970 Census, 1984 PNAD. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 A.5 Estimated Trends in Childhood Mortality from Child Survival Data Brazil, South Region 1970 Census, 1977 PNAD, 1984 PNAD . . . . . . . . . . . 137 A.6 Estimated Trends in Childhood Mortality from Child Survival Data Brazil, North Region, Urban Population Only 1984 PNAD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 iii A.7 Comparison of Estimated Trends and Levels of Childhood Mortality Brazil and its Regions,Total Populations. . . . . . . . 139 A.8 Comparison of Estimated Trends and Levels of Childhood Mortality Brazil and its Regions, Urban Population. . . . . . . . 140 A.9 Comparison of Estimated Trends and Levels of Childhood Mortality Brazil and its Regions, Rural Population. . . . . . . . 141 A.10 P/F Ratio Values by Age-Group of Women Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 A.11 P/F Ratio Values by Age-Group of Women Brazil, Northeast Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 A.12 P/F Ratio Values by Age-Group of Women Brazil, Central West Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 A.13 P/F Ratio Values by Age-Group of Women Brazil, Southeast Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 A.14 P/F Ratio Values by Age-Group of Women Brazil, South Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 A.15 P/F Ratio Values by Age-Group of Women Brazil, North Region, Urban Population Only . . . . . . 147 A.16 Comparison of P/F Ratio Series Brazil and its Regions, Total Populations . . . . . . . 148 A.17 Comparison of P/F Ratio Series Brazil and its Region, Urban Populations. . . . . . . . 149 A.18 Comparison of P/F Ratio Series Brazil and its Regions, Rural Populations . . . . . . . 150 iv The Evolution of Population Dynamics in Northeast Brazil 1 The Past Up to the release of the 1980 census results, conventional wisdom concerning the demography of the Northeast depicted the region as a poor, rural and backward Third World enclave in a rapidly-developing and industrializing country. Its demographic characteristics resembled those of Africa or South Asia, by contrast with the other parts of Brazil which were more akin to the prospering countries of Southeast Asia or most of Latin America. The Northeast was predominantly rural2 (67 percent in 1960, 58 percent in 1970) while the rest of Brazil was predominantly urban (over 50 percent in 1960, over 60 percent in 1970). Fertility was very high, with a TFR estimated at around or over 7 up to the mid 1970s and at 6.5 even in the late 1970s, compared with values of 3.3-4.7 for other regions. Moreover there was evidence only of a minor fall in urban fertility in the 1970s, and no sign of any incipient decline in rural fertility, by contrast with the substantial and steady fall in fertility elsewhere from as early as the late 1960s. Mortality was spectacularly higher than in other regions, with life expectancy estimated at an African or South Asian level of around 50 years in the mid 1970s, compared with 60-65 years in the other regions. The magnitude of this mortality gap, moreover, had decreased little over the past few decades. To sum up, the conventional wisdom was that the Northeast had barely entered the demographic transition from high and stable to low and stable levels of fertility and mortality, while in the rest of Brazil this transition was nearing completion. Not surprisingly, the inequalities in living standards, incomes and opportunities underlying these demographic imbalances had over the past few decades provoked a massive outflow of migrants from the Northeast. These were directed largely to the industrializing Southeast, together with some movements into pioneer areas of agricultural development in the center and north of Brazil. The 1980s Publication of the 1980 census results, together with newly available data from the 1984 PNAD Fertility Survey, the 1986 PNSMIPF (Maternal and Child Health/Family Planning Survey, carried out in the Westinghouse DRS framework), a few state-level contraceptive prevalence surveys carried out between 1979 and 1982. and the vital registration system, have changed this picture of the Northeast in almost every respect. 1 For details of how demographic estimates were derived, see the Technical Appendix. 2 The definition of urban in Brazil is legal, based not on size of population but on the legal status and administrative functions of the locality. However, the vast majority of the urban population under this definition do live in centers that would be classified as urban under any reasonable criteria of size and functions. 2 In many ways, the demography of the Northeast is now approaching closer to that of the rest of Brazil. partly as a result of long-term trends and partly in response to the crisis and drought of the early 1980s. Trends in Mortality: Unfortunately, the exception to this pattern is in the grimmest area of contrast, namely mortality. Data on child survival from 1980 and 1984. which provide estimates up to 1982. still show little change in the magnitude of the gap between Northeastern mortality and the mortality of the rest of the country, although mortality had continued to decline everywhere. Vital registration data for 1980-85 tell an even sadder story. The secular decline in infant mortality appears to have stalled during the period of the crisis throughout Brazil. but in the Northeast, where the impact of the crisis was intensified by the drought, it is probable that infant mortality actually rose. The gap in mortality levels therefore probably widened during the early 1980s. Trends in Fertility: Differentials in fertility trends, by contrast, have diminished in recent years. Data from 1980 show that the decline in fertility had quickened significantly in the urban Northeast by the end of the 1970s, though there was still little or no change in Northeast rural fertility at that date. Steady declines had continued in the rest of the country. Data from the early 1980s, though still requiring further analysis and confirmation, show not only yet more acceleration in decline in the urban Northeast, but also a significant fall in the rural Northeast. Therefore, while the Northeast still lags behind the rest of the country-which in 1984 uniformly showed even sharper declines in fertility in both urban and rural populations-it has begun to follow the same path of decline. Experience elsewhere suggests that declines once begun are not reversed and tend even to accelerate (in the absence of specific interventions to control them) at least until a fairly low level of fertility is reached. The Northeast may therefore be expected to catch up with the rest of the country over the next two decades or so. Trends in Migration and Urbanization: Data from 1980 show that the pattern of migratory flows in the Northeast began to change in the 1970s. Flows out of the Northeast countryside increased, but their direction shifted more towards Northeastern towns and cities and less to other parts of Brazil. During the 1960s. 40 percent of rural out-migrants went to Northeastern towns while 60 percent left the region; during the 1970s. however, these proportions more than reversed, with two-thirds going to Northeast towns and only one-third leaving the region. No data are available for any later date than 1980. However, in the opinion of all observers, and from indirect evidence such as the growth in demand for housing, education, jobs etc. in the urban areas, this shift in pattern intensified during the early 1980s under the impetuu of the crisis and the drought. Again, the Northeast rural outflow probably continued to increase between 1980 and 1985, but its direction was focused yet more on the region's own urban areas. As a result, these latter have been growing extremely fast. By 1980. they already contained 51 percent of the Northeast's population and may now contain as much as 56 percent. The Northeast is thus now becoming a predominantly urban region like the rest of Brazil. 3 The Future Population Projections: The most up-to-date projections available in Brazil at present are; at national level, the set constructed by IBGE [in concert with CELADE (Centro Latino-Americano de Demografia) and thus used both by the UN and by us in WDR; and, for the Northeast, the set constructed by FUNDAJ (Fundacao Joaquin Nabuco) for use by SUDENE (Superintendencia de Desenvolvimento do Nordeste). Both are entirely reasonable in methodology and assumptions, given the data available at the time of construction. However, the newly available data for the early 1980s, showiag an unexpected acceleration of fertility decline everywhere and a stall or rise in infant mortality, force a reconsideration of their assumptions and necessitate the construction of new projections.3 Construction of Pro3ections Two sets of projections for the Northeast were constructed, each for the rural, urban and total Northeastern populations and running from 1980 up to 2015. or roughly 30 years from now. While this may seem a lengthy projection period in terms of usual planning perspectives, it is still within the lifetime of most Brazilians alive today, and certainly well within their children's lifetimes. It is important, therefore, to assess the long-term implications of probable trends in demographic dynamics. Baseline Estimates 1980 - 85: Both sets of projections use as a baseline population the enumerated population from the 1980 census, and identical assumptions about 1980-85 trends. For the estimation of the average 1980-85 fertility level, it was decided to use the results of a P/F analysis of the 1984 PNAD survey. This gives a rural TFR of 6.5 and an urban TFR of 4.0, resulting in a regional TFR of 5.0. The assumption is that the PNAD results, when confirmed, will prove to be of usable quality. For the estimation of the average 1980-85 mortality level, estimates for the mid 1970s. derived from 1980 census data, were used as a base. It was assumed that rural mortality in 1980-85 was at the mid 1970s level while urban mortality was slightly lower. This can be viewed as the net result of further declines in the late 1970s, followed by some slight rise after 1980. Average life expectancy for 1980-85 is put at 54 years for the rural population and 56 years for the urban population, yielding a regional life expectancy of 55 years. For the estimation of 1980-85 migration, the conservative assumption was made (following the FUNDAJ projections) that the age-specific rates of rural out-migration estimated for the 1970s from census data remained constant in the early 1980s. It was further assumed that the distribution by destination also remained constant, with two thirds of rural outmigrants going to the Northeast urban areas and the other third leaving the region. Trends after 1985: Two different sets of trends are assumed after 1985. The first set, labelled the "optimistic" projection, is predicated on the 3A comparison of the Bank and FUNDAJ projections is given in the Technical Appendix. page 10. 4 assumption thaf government policies and programs for developing the Northeast will be successful in their objective of substantially reducing rural poverty aid disadvantages by the year 2000. Mortality in both urban and rural areas is thus projected to decline at the normal, rather rapid. pace used in Bank WDI projection methodology. Urban life expectancy rises to 63 years by 1995-2000. and thence to 69 years by 2010-2015 and rural life expectancy to 61, and thence to just under 69 years. Fertility is also expected to decline according to normal Bank methodology, reaching replacement level by 2000-2005 in urban areas and 2005-2010 in rural areas (consistent with a replacement-level date of 2005-2010 for all Brazil). The urban TFR falls from 4.0 in 1980-85 to 2.4 in 1995-2000. and hence to 2.2 by 2010-2015; the rural TFR falls from 6.5 to 3.3 to 2.2. Rural out-migration is expected to decline over time as rural work opportunities and living standards rise, falling from 1970s rates between 1985 and 1990 to half those rates between 1990 and 2000. then to a quarter thereafter. The annual volume of net out-migrants thus gradually declines from about half a million in the late 1980s to around 130,000 between 2010 and 2015. Two-thirds of the migrants at every period are projected to go to urban areas and the rest to leave the region, on the further assumption that economic growth in the rest of Brazil will continue to be rapid enough to attract rural out- migrants to the same degree (relative to Northeastern towns) as during the 1970s. The second set, labelled the "pessimistic" assumption, is predicated on the assumption that efforts to develop the Northeast will be no more successful than they have been up till now, and that hence the rural areas will continue to be backward and poverty-stricken. According to this hypothesis, both rural and urban mortality is projected to decline much more slowly than the normal Bank pace, with increments in life expectancy for each 5 year period only half the normal number of years. Urban life expectancy is only 60 years by 1995-2000 and 63 years by 2010-2015; rural values are still lower at 57 and 61 years respectively. Fertility is still expected to fall at the normal Bank speed in urban areas, since these are now well launched on a fertility decline and are not likely to be mainly dependent on government services for most of their family planning supplies. Rural fertility, however, is projected to decline more slowly than normal, since the accessibility of services is likely to continue to be heavily dependent on the public health care network.4 Replacement level fertility is thus scheduled for 2000-05 for the urban population as before, but at 2010-15 for the rural population; the rural TFR is still 4.0 by 1995-2000, and 2.4 by 2010-2015. Rural out-migration is projected to continue at the rates of the 1970s throughout the projection period, resulting in a much smaller fall in the annual net outflow from about half a million in the late 1980s to around 350,000 between 2010 and 2015. As before, two thirds of the outmigrants are projected to go to Northeastern urban areas, and one third to leave the region. 4The PNSMIPF survey preliminary report showed a heavy dependence on government health facilities for contraceptive services and supplies by Northeastern women, in contrast to the rest of Brazil which mainly used INAMPS and private sources. No urban/rural bieakdown was available. however. 5 Results of Projections Major Overall Features The principal results-total population, growth rates and urban/rural distribution-are shown in Tables 1, 2, 3 and 4 below. Table 1 Projected Population As Multiple (in millions) of 1985 1985 2000 2015 2000 2015 Optimistic Hypothesis Rural 16.86 17.01 18.48 1.01 1.10 Urban 21.50 31.75 39.47 1.48 1.84 Total 38.35 48.77 57.95 1.27 1351 Pessimistic Hypothesis Rural 16.86 14.54 10.88 .86 .64 Urban 21.50 33.55 44.31 1.56 2.06 Total 38.35 48.09 55.19 1.25 f_.A Table 2 Projected Distribution of Northeast Population by Urban/Rural 1985 2000 2015 Optimistic Hypothesis Rural 44 35 32 Urban 56 65 68 Pessimistic Hypothesis Rural 44 30 20 Urban 56 70 80 6 Table 3 Projected Average Annual Growth Rates Doubling Time (percent) (in years) 1980-1985 1995-2000 2010-2015 2010-2015 Optimistic Hypothesis Rural -.47 .14 .56 124 Urban 4.17 1.92 1.38 50 Total 2.00 1.28 1.12 62 Pessimistic Hypothesis Rural -.47 -.43 -2.09 - Urban 4.17 .37 1.66 42 Total 2.00 1.14 .87 80 Table 4 Projected Average Annual Rate of Natural Increase (percent) 1980-1985 1995-2000 2010-2015 Optimistic Hypothesis Rural 2.83 1.66 1.29 Urban 2.24 1.35 1.15 Total 2.52 1.46 1.20 Pessimistic Hypothesis Rural 2.83 1.76 .92 Urban 2.24 1.36 1.13 Total 2.52 1.49 1.09 Three important points emerge: First, under either hypothesis, the Northeast Region will experience considerable overall population growth over the next 30 years. By 2000. the population will increase by over a quarter, from its 1985 total of 38 million to 48-49 million. By 2015. numbers will have grown by roughly 45-50 percent. to reach 55-58 million. Moreover, considerable potential for further growth w11 still remain even at the end of the projection period. Growth rates for the 2010-2015 period of .9 - 1.1 percent would still permit a further doubling in numbers within the following 60-80 years. Thus even assuming quite important rates of emigration and a fairly rapid fertility decline, the Northeast must still expect and plan for a very substantial increase in numbers. Second, under either hypothesis, the balance of rural to urban in the region is going to change radically over the next few decades. The urban sector will grow from just over half the region's population in 1985 7 to 65 - 70 percent within the next 15 years and to 68 - 80 percent within 30 years. Indeed, virtually all the expected population growth (roughly 15-25 million) will be concentrated in the urban areas. Under the optimistic scenario the rural population will grow by only 1 percent over the next 15 years and by only 10 percent over the next 30 years. Under the pessimistic scenario the rural population will actually shrink, by 14 and 36 percent respectively. Thus whether current plans to improve rural living standards and reduce the present rural-out flow succeed or not, greater attention will have to be paid in the future to the problems and needs of the substantial urban majority. Third, this major shift of population from rural to urban areas is entirely due to migration. Rural rates of natural increase continue to be higher than urban rates throughout the 30 years projection period under the optimistic hypothesis; higher and slower-falling rural mortality is more than outweighed by higher and slower-falling rural fertility. Under the pessimistic (higher mortality) hypothesis, the rural advantage still holds up to 2000; only in the second half of the projection period does rural natural increase dip below the urban level. Without migration, therefore. the rural population would actually increase its share of the total regional population. Thus the future course of urbanization in the Northeast is very sensitive to the economic conditions and policies that determine migration ypatterns. It must be remembered also, that the more rapid the rate of urbanization, the larger a proportion of urban-dwellers will consist of recent rural emigrants who, being relatively poor and disadvantaged, will require very much the same degree of social services as they did in the rural areas. Sectoral Features Employment and Dependency: Projections of the working age and prime working age populations, together with dependency ratios, are shown in Tables 5. 6 and 7 below. Table 5 Projected Population of Working Age Average Annual Growth 15-64 Years (in millions Rate (percent) 1985 2000 2015 1985-2000 2000-2015 Optimistic Hypothesis Rural 8.57 9.81 12.49 .9 1.6 Urban 12.41 20.29 27.03 3.3 1.9 Total 20.98 30.11 39.52 2.4 1.8 Pessimistic Hypothesis Rural 8.57 8.10 6.98 -.4 -1.0 Urban 12.41 21.20 29.79 3.6 2.3 Total 20.98 29.30 36.76 2.2 1.5 8 Table 6 Average Annual Growth Projected Population Aged 18-28 Years Rate (percent) 1985 2000 2015 1985-2000 2000-2015 Optimistic Hypothesis Rural 3.06 3.68 4.12 1.2 .8 Urban 4.72 6.45 7.56 2.1 1.1 Total 7.77 10.13 11.68 1.8 1.0 Pessimistic Hypothesis Rural 3.06 3.02 2.46 -.1 -1.4 Urban 4.72 6.78 8.62 2.4 1.6 Total 7.77 9.79 11.08 1.5 .8 Table 7 Projected Dependency Ratio (0-4 + 65+/15-64 years) 1985 2000 2015 Optimistic Hypothesis Rural 97 73 48 Urban 73 57 46 Total 83 62 47 Pessimistic Hypothesis Rural 97 79 56 Urban 73 58 49 Total 83 64 50 Again, three major features emerge: First the potential Northeast labor force will experience even heavier growth than the total population. Adults aged 15-64 will grow in numbers by 40-45 percent over the next 15 years and by 75-90 percent over the next 30 years. compared to increases of a quarter and a half respectively for the total population. This is due to the disparity between the high natural increase of the past few decades, stemming from continued high fertility coupled with steadily declining mortality, and recent and projected trends. Since entrants to the labor force are the product of fertility levels at least 15 years in the past, the overall effect of recent and projected fertility declines (and any stall in mortality decline), will still be minor over the next 30 years. It is noticeable already, however. for.the youngest working ages. The population aged 18-28 years will grow only slightly faster than the total population (by 26-30 percent) over the 9 next 15 years. and thereafter will actually lag behind. The overall more rapid growth of the supply of labor therefore (reflected in steadily falling dependency ratios under both hypothesis in both urban and rural areas) will be accompanied by a steady aging within the labor force. Second. the overall shift of population from rural to urban areas under either hypothesis will be reflected in a growing imbalance between urban and rural labor supply. The rural population of working age will shrink from around 40 percent of the regional labor supply to 28-33 percent within 15 years, and further to 19-32 percent within 30 years. By 2000 the current potential urban potential labor force of 12.4 million will have soared to 20-21 million, and by 2015 to 27-30 million. Third, the projected growth of the rural, but not the urban, labor supply is very sensitive to the future course of migration. Under the optimistic scenario of declining rural out-migration rates after 1990, the rural population of working age will increase steadily from 8.6 million at present to 9.8 million by 2000 and 12.5 million by 2015. Under the pessimistic scenario of constant rural out-migration rates, however, this population will instead decline steadily to 8.1 million by 2000 and to 7 million by 2015. By contrast, the much larger urban labor supply will vary little in relative terms under either assumption. Education: The projected numbers of primary-school and secondary school-age children are shown in Tables 8 and 9 below. Table 8 Projected Primary School-Age Average Annual Growth Population (7-11 years) Rate (percent) 1985 2000 2015 1985-2000 2000-2015 Optimistic Hypothesis Rural 3.73 3.50 2.46 -.4 -2.4 Urban 4.03 5.45 5.21 2.1 -.4 Total 7.76 9.04 7.67 1.0 -1.1 Pessimistic Hypothesis Rural 3.73 3.06 1.60 -1.3 -4.3 Urban 4.03 5.90 6.10 2.5 .2 Total 7.76 8.96 7.70 1.0 -1.0 10 Table 9 Projected Secondary School-Age Average Annual Growth Population (15-18 years) Rate (percent) 1985 2000 2015 1985-2000 2000-2015 Optimistic Hypothesis Rural 1.63 1.57 1.38 -.3 -.9 Urban 1.96 2.71 2.54 2.2 -.4 Total 3.60 4.28 3.92 1.2 -.6 Pessimistic Hypothesis Rural 1.63 1.32 .88 -1.4 -2.7 Urban 1.96 2.82 2.99 2.4 .4 Total 3.60 4.15 3.86 1.0 -.5 Again, three major features emerge: First, under either hypothesis, demand for education at regional level will grow over the next 15 years, then fall again to close to 1985 levels. Numbers of primary-school-age children will increase from the present 7.8 million by 15-16 percent by 2000. to reach around 9 million; the secondary-school-age population will grow from 3.6 million by much the same proportion to reach 4.2-4.3 million. Then numbers will fall again, to around 7.7 million primary-school-aged children and 3.9 million secondary- school-aged children. Again, these trends primarily reflect past high fertility working its lagged way through the system followed by the effects of the recent and projected decline in fertility. Pressure on the Northeast school system and education budget will thus continue over the next decade or two, but should then ease off. Second, as in the case of employment, this overall trend conceals sharply differing urban and rural tendencies. Under both hypotheses, the rural demand for education is projected to drop steadily over the next 30 years. whereas the urban demand will grow rapidly up to 2000 and change relatively little thereafter. Consequently, the urban share of demand will increase dramatically from the current level of just over half (52 percent for primary schooling and 54 percent for secondary schooling). Urban children of primary school age will make up 60-65 percent of the regional total by 2000. and in the range of 70-80 percent by 2015; equivalent shares for secondary school ages will be 63-68 percent and 65-80 percent. Education planning and future allocation of resources will therefore need to take this shifting pattern of demand into account. Third, the effects of the differing optimistic and pessimistic scenarios are once more mainly felt in the rural sector. Projected urban school-age populations vary by only 4-7 percent in 2000 and 17-18 percent in 2015, compared with equivalent values of 13-15 and 35-36 percent in 2015. Thus the evolution of education needs is highly sensitive to the degree of 11 success in rural development in the rural Northeast. but far less so in the case of the-urban sector. Health: The projected MCH client populations (children aged under 5 years plus annual numbers of women giving birth) are shown in Table 10 below. The three major features are as follows: First, at regional level, the demand for maternal and child health services will fall substantially over the next few decades, largely as a consequence of the projected decline in fertility. Numbers of young children will fall from nearly 6 million at present to just over 5 million by 2000; thereafter there will be little change, with a slight rise in numbers under the optimistic scenario and a slight further decline under the pessimistic scenario. Similarly, annual deliveries will drop from 1.4 million at present to 1.1 million by 2000 and change little thereafter. Thus the total population in need of NCH services will fall by close to 15 percent over the next 15 years. from the current 7.3 million to 6.1-6.4 million; by 2015 numbers would still remain at 6.2-6.3 million. Such a decrease in demand should provide a welcome opportunity to improve coverage and quality of services even within the limits of current regional health expenditure allocations. In a sense, therefore, any action to improve access to family planning supplies and services through the public health system could pay for itself by reducing subsequent MCH needs. Second, as before, urban and rural trends will differ sharply, with neither in fact following the overall regional trend. Under either hypothes3s. rural demand will fall continuously throughout the-next 30 years whereas urban demand will increase as continuously. The rural decline wll be faster at the beginning of the period and slow down thereafter; the reverse is true of the urban growth. These features hold true for both components of MCR demand. Therefore, as in other sectors, the balance of health needs will shift heavily to the urban areas. with the share of urban in total overall MCH demand rising from 51 percent to 60-65 percent by 2000 and to 65-80 percent by 2015. Allocation of future health spending between urban and rural sectors will need to take this shift into consideration, particularly since much of the urban increase will consist of recent and relatively poor rural emigrants whose need for public health services will be acute. Third, again as before, the degree of success in rural development will have a particularly important impact on the level of rural needs. The size of the rural MCR client population will vary by 58 percent in 2015, depending on whether the optimistic or the pessimistic scenario is followed. Policies influencing rural living standards and emigration, therefore, may be a crucial determinant of growth in health needs. 12 Table 10 Projected MCH Client Population Average Annual Growth - Children Under Five (Millions) Rate (percent) 1985 2000 2015 1985-2000 2000-2015 Optimistic Hypothesis Rural 2.86 1.95 1.73 -2.6 -.8 Urban 3.04 3.10 3.47 .1 .8 Total 5.90 5.05 5.19 -1.0 .2 Pessimistic Hypothesis Rural 2.86 1.80 .98 -3.1 -4.1 Urban 3.04 3.41 4.08 .8 1.2 Total 5.90 5.21 5.06 -.8 -.2 Projected MCB Client Population Average Annual Growth - Annual Deliveries (Millions) Rate (percent) 1985 2000 2015 1985-2000 2000-2015 Optimistic Hypothesis Rural .72 .41 .37 -3.8 -.7 Urban .65 .66 .71 .1 .5 Total 1.37 1.07 1.08 -1.7 -.1 Pessimistic Hypothesis Rural .72 .40 .24 -3.9 -3.4 Urban .65 .74 .87 .9 1.1 Total 1.37 1.14 1.11 -1.2 -.2 Projected Total MCR Client Average Annual Growth Population - (in millions) Rate (percent) 1985 2000 2015 1985 -2000 2000-2015 Optimistic Hypothesis Rural 3.58 2.36 2.10 -2.8 -.8 Urban 3.69 3.76 4.18 .1 .7 Total 7.27 6.12 6.27 -1.2 .2 Pessimistic Hypothesis Rural 3.58 2.20 1.22 -3.3 -3.9 Urban 3.69 4.15 4.95 .8 1.2 Total 7.27 6.35 6.17 -.9 -.2 13 Summary of Results To sum up the most important results of these projections. therefore, the future course of rural development in the Northeast will be a crucial factor in determining the pattern of labour supply and basic needs over the next few decades. On the basis of past experience and likely future developments in Brazil. the Northeast will almost certainly undergo massive urbanization and urban growth in the 30 years to come, while the rural population will at best barely increase and at worst shrink substantially. These heavy flows of poor and disadvantaged rural emigrants into Northeastern towns and cities will dramatically alter the balance of rural to urban labour supplies and requirements for social services. The implications for development policies and planning for the Northeast (at present focused heavily on the rural sector) will be far-reaching, requiring a radical re- thinking of current policy and programs. 14 Technical Appendix Derivation and Comparison of Estimates of Mortality, Fertility and Migration The Past 1. Estimates of fertility and mortality in this section are taken from the existing literature on the demography of Brazil and its regions. chiefly the two National Academy of Science Reports 21 and 23 ["Levels and Recent Trends in Fertility and Mortality in Brazil," (1983) and "The Determinants of Brazil's Recent Rapid Decline in Fertility," (1983)] which provide a handy compendium of levels and trends by region up to 1980. The Last Five Years 2. The first step in estimation of fertility and mortality levels and trends in these sections was an analysis of data on children ever born, children surviving and recent births from the 1980 census and 1984 PNAD survey, as detailed below. An analysis of these data by the Brass P/F ratio and child survival methods was made, using the AFEMO PC package developed for the IBM PC in the Bank and based on the procedures recommended in the UN Manual X (Indirect Techniques for Demographic Estimation UN. 1983). For 1980. tEe analysis was carried out only at national level and for the Northeast, since only state-level tables of new data were available (published in the 1984 Anuario Estatistica do Brasil) and aggregation by hand to regional level for all regions would have been too time consuming. For 1984. regional-level tables of the raw data (unpublished and preliminary) were very kindly supplied by Valeria da Motta Leite, head of Departanmento de Estudos Populacionais, IBGE and therefore a full regional analysis could be carried out. 3. The full results of this analysis. (including the raw data), are given, in print-out form, in Tables Al-A.8. Some aspects are also presented in graphic form, in Figures Al - A18. including comparison of child mortality trends with those from a selection of available other data sources. Within the context of this report, only a brief examination and analysis of these results could be carried out, with the practical purpose of deriving base levels of fertility and mortality for population projections of the Northeast. The following discussion is therefore brief. and the conclusions clearly open to discussion and modification. Brazilian demographers will no doubt continue exploration and analysis of this rich data set. 4. The principal features that emerge from examination of the results are as follows: a. Overall quality of data The quality of the 1984 PNAD appears to be patchy, and dubious in parts. Comparison of child survival trends with earlier data sources for Brazil, for the Northeast, and (incompletely), for other regions (see Figures A.1-6) indicates that childhood mortality was significantly more 15 underreported in 1984, and that the bulk of the discrepancy is attributable to the Northeast data. In the Northeast, indeed, there is a possibility that the 1980 census data also significantly underreported childhood mortality relative to earlier data. In both Brazil and the Northeast. the inconsistencies appear to be more serious for urban than for rural women. The reasons for this are obscure. Further comparison of the 1980 and 1984 Northeast parity and child survival data using the synthetic cohorts approach1 suggests that older women in particular, in 1984 underreported their parity and child deaths (see Table 1 below). While a general decline in fertility and childhood mortality between 1980 and 1984 is not impossible per s. women aged 45-49 in 1984, for example, cannot have had fewer total births and child deaths in 1984 than they had in 1980. The likeliest explanation is (greater) underreporting in 1984. TABLE 1 Synthetic Cohort Analysis: Northeast Region 1980-1984 Reported Mean Parity Reported Mean Number of Child-Deaths Age Group 1980 1984 Synthetic 1980 1984 Synthetic of Women Census PNAD Cohort Census PNAD Cohort 1980-1984 1980-1984 15-19 .157 .163 .163 .023 .017 .017 20-24 1.095 1.034 1.040 .155 .123 .117 25-29 2.521 2.333 2.278 .366 .279 .241 30-34 4.022 3.589 3.346 .654 .495 .370 35-39 5.411 4.858 4.182 1.005 .742 .458 40-44 6.254 5.865 4.636 1.330 1.017 .470 45-49 6.652 6.245 4.627 1.584 1.175 .315 b. Overall trends in childhood mortality However, despite this uncertainty over the validity of levels of childhood mortality from the 1984 and (to a lesser extent) 1980 data, the picture of overall trends seems acceptable and consistent with other sources. These trends are of a continued gradual decline in childhood mortality at national level between the mid 1960s and 1980, itself made up of a steeper urban decline and a very much shallower, and sometimes leveling off, rural decline. These urban/rural differentials are present in every region, but the contrast is perhaps most marked in the Northeast, where rural childhood mortality has been more or less stationary at least during the 1970s. lFor details of this method (also called "hypothetical cohorts") see the UN Manual X. 16 The vexed question of trends since 1980 is less easy. All regions except the Central West and the North (urban only) show a plateau or increase in childhood mortality after 1980; this is true also of both urban and rural populations in every region with the exception of the small rural Southeast population. However a similar upturn or plateau is observable for the 5 years preceding all earlier data sources also. Since estimates of mortality for this period depend largely on data from women aged 20-24 years. and since births to this group are dominated by higher-mortality first births, it is probable that these apparent rises in mortality are, at least in part, an artifact of the methodology employed and should be excluded from consideration. Mention, however, must be made of the recent paper. "Evolucao da mortalidade na infancia no periodo 1977-1984" by R.A. Becker and 'A. Lechtig (Mimeo: Brasilia 1986) which presents evidence from vital registration data of a stall or rise in infant mortality in Brazil over the period of the crisis and Northeastern drought. The adjusted estimates of the IMR given in this paper have not been used, since although the proposed adjustments appear sensible, they are too conjectural to be compelling.2 However, the basic argument of the paper, on the upward trends in infant mortality, has - been accepted. It derives from observed trends in registered births and deaths themselves (and the IMRs calculated from them). No convincing reasons for doubting the observed trends can be put forward, since the necessary hypothesis of increasing coverage of infant deaths relative to coverage of births seems extremely implausible. The PNAD child survival data do not contradict this evidence although for the reasons mentioned above, they cannot be used to support it. c. Pattern of regional differentials in childhood mortality The pattern of regional differentials shown by the 1984 PNAD data is also generally consistent with earlier sources and broadly acceptable. (See Figures A.7-9). Childhood mortality is spectacularly higher in the Northeast than in the rest of Brazil, which forms a rather homogeneous cluster. The national average is in fact, substantially pulled up by the high Northeast level. Using as an illustration the PNAD estimates of mortality under 5 years (themselves probably all too low). about 14 percent of Northeastern children died before reaching 5 years of age in the late 1970s. contrasted with a range of 6 -8 percent elsewhere in Brazil. The resulting national average is 9 percent. The same pattern of regional . differentials holds true for urban and rural populations considered separately, although the spread among the other regions is wider for rural populations. In all cases, also, there is little or no indication of any change in the magnitude of the contrast during the 1970s, with trends in the Northeast running more or less parallel to those of the rest of Brazil. 2Much has recently been done with Brazil's underutilized registration data, using the array of new techniques developed for analysis and adjustment in recent years by Preston, Coale, Brass, etc. Further collaboration between epidemiologists and demographers would be very fruitful. 17 (Changes in the differential since 1980. suggested by the vital registration data, cannot, again, be confirmed from these data for the reasons given above). Analysis of child survival data from 1980 for the other regions should help to confirm the validity of these patterns. d. Overall trends in fertility Despite doubts about the completeness of parity reporting, at least by the older women, overall trends in fertility as indicated by P/F ratio series in 1980 and 1984 are worth examining. In the absence of fertility change. P/F ratio series should be roughly flat, or slightly declining with age due to increasing understatement of parity by older women. A consistent steep decline signals a recent rise in fertility, and pronounced consistent increase signals a recent fall. Table 2 below shows P/P ratios for Brazil and for the Northeast from 1980 and 1984 data. Figures A.10-18 present these data, plus those for other regions in 1984, in graphic form. TAB 2 Age Group of Women P/P Ratios All Brazil Northeast Total Population 1980 1984 1980 1984 15-19 1.13 1.16 1.19 1.19 20-24 1.12 1.10 1.20 1.12 25-29 1.10 1.12 1.17 1.15 30-34 1.15 1.17 1.20 1.18 35-39 1.26 1.29 1.26 1.27 40-44 1.33 1.44 1.28 1.37 45-49 1.37 1.56 1.30 1.41 Urban Population 15-19 1.11 1.11 1.19 1.11 20-24 1.10 1.08 1.19 1.09 25-29 1.08 1.11 1.18 1.15 30-34 1.15 1.16 1.26 1.19 35-39 1.28 1.28 1.38 1.31 40-44 1.38 1.45 1.45 1.51 45-59 1.45 1.61 1.50 1.56 Rural Population 15-19 1.16 1.26 1.20 1.30 20-24 1.18 1.17 1.21 1.15 25-29 1.14 1.18 1.15 1.15 30-34 1.16 1.21 1.14 1.17 35-39 1.23 1.30 1.15 1.22 40-44 1.21 1.37 1.14 1.23 45-49 1.22 1.43 1.13 1.25 18 Clearly the 1980 P/T ratios for Brazil as a whole, and for the urban population, show a marked pre-existing fertility decline. The rural series also indicates a decline, but less clear-cut. In the Northeast, there is also a somewhat less marked pre-existing fertility decline at regional level, due entirely to a well-marked urban decline. The rural P/F series for the Northeast, by contrast, shows a classic pattern of stable fertility up to 1980. A broadly similar pattern of trends emerges from a recent own-children analysis of census data (Fernandez and Carvalho: "A Evolucao da Fecundidade no Brasil, Periodo 1957-1979": unpublished paper). These results again show more gradual fertility declines in the Northeast (and Amazonia) than in the rest of Brazil during the 1970s. Estimation of rural and urban trends by the own-children method are probably less secure than at national or regional level, because any biases introduced by migration, such as differential fertility of female migrants over time, and migration of mothers unaccompanied by children or vice versa, are likely to be greatest for rural to urban flows. However, this analysis again shows well-marked declines in urban fertility everywhere in Brazil, and though it does indicate some slight fall in rural Northeastern (and Amazonian) fertility during the 1970s, this fall is still much less marked than elsewhere in rural Brazil. In 1984. the picture from the P/F analysis changes. All Brazil, both urban and rural, shows a clear-cut pattern of fertility decline, even steeper than before. Every region other than the Northeast shows a very sharp rise in P/7 ratios by age in both urban and rural populations (despite probably greater underreporting of parity by older women in 1984 than in 1980). The Northeast urban fertility decline has become steeper, and even more similar to the rest of the country. In the rural Northeast, moreover, an unmistakable pattern of fertility decline has emerged in the P/F ratio series for the first time, in sharp contrast to the classic 1980 pattern. Hence, the overall Northeast decline has also become steeper, though it is still less steep than for the rest of Brazil. Again, there is supporting evidence from other data sources for these recent developments. Birth statistics from the vital registration system have been studied by Wong ('A Diminuicao dos Nascimentos et A Queda de Fecundidade no Brasil dos anos pos 80': Anais do V Encontro Nacional de Estudos Populacionais, Outubro 1986: Vol 1). They show a sharp drop in numbers of registered births in 1983 and 1984. following a continued increase in numbers between 1979 and 1982. in almost all regions of Brazil3; these trends are accepted as real, since no major changes in the operation of the vital registration occurred during the 1979-1984 period and internal patterns of change across age-groups of women and regions and cities are all consistent and coherent. The declines in 1983 and 1984 are moreover largest everywhere for the older women (which would lead to a steeply rising P/F ratio series). Overall, the Brazilian TER is estimated to have fallen by about 17 percent between 1980 and 1984. 3The sole exception, the North. shows sharp annual fluctuations over the entire period 1979-1984. which are attributed largely to the very poor quality of the vital registration system in that region. 19 The Northeast showed the sharpest drop of all according to this data source. Births in 1982 had risen to 14 percent above the 1979 total, then fell back to the 1979 level in 1983, and dropped further to 6 percent below the 1979 level in 1984. The pattern of increasingly larger declines with age of mother was also most accentuated in the Northeast. Overall, the Northeastern TER is estimated to have fallen by 24 percent between 1980 and 1984. The changes between 1980 and 1984 in age-specific fertility rates shown by the census and PNAD data are also consistent with a (further) decline in fertility, as shown in Table 3 below for the Northeast and for all Brazil. TABLE 3 Age-specific Fertility Rates Percentage Change in ASFR 1980-84 Age of Reported Adjusted by P912 Reported Adjusted Women 1980 1984 1980 1984 1980, 1984 1980, 1984 Northeast: Total 15-19 .063 .065 .092 .089 + 3 - 3 20-24 .214 .209 .270 .241 - 2 -11 25-29 .256 .216 .306 .240 -16 -12 30-34 .221 .189 .259 .205 -14 -21 35-39 .166 .133 .191 .142 -20 -26 40-44 .086 .064 .093 .064 -26 -31 45-49 .023 .015 .021 .012 -35 -43 TFR 5.15 4.45 6.15 4.96 -14 -19 Northeast: Urban 15-19 .053 .060 .077 .079 +13 + 3 20-24 .181 .173 .227 .197 - 4 -13 25-29 .218 .191 .259 .207 -12 -20 30-34 .181 .161 .209 .168 -11 -20 35-39 .126 .092 .143 .095 -27 -34 40-44 .062 .046 .066 .045 -26 -32 45-49 .016 .009 .014 .008 -44 -43 TER 4.18 3.66 4.98 4.00 -12 -20 Northeast: Rural 15-19 .076 .073 .111 .104 - 4 - 6 20-24 .258 .265 .328 .315 + 3 - 4 25-29 .306 .257 .369 .293 -17 -21 30-34 .271 .232 .322 .262 -14 -29 35-39 .212 .191 .248 .210 -10 -15 40-44 .114 .089 .125 .092 -22 -26 45-49 .031 .022 .029 .019 -29 -34 TER 6.34 5.65 7.66 6.47 -11 -16 20 Brazil: Total 15-19 .058 .055 .080 .075 - 5 - 6 20-24 .182 .167 .213 .189 - 8 -11 25-29 .204 .165 .226 .179 -19 -21 30-34 .159 .131 .173 .139 -18 -20 35-39 .109 .081 .117 .084 -26 -28 40-44 .052 .036 .053 .035 -31 -34 45-49 .013 .007 .011 .006 -46 -45 TFR 3.89 3.21 4.36 3.53 -17 -19 Brazil: Urban 15-19 .051 .053 .069 .069 + 4 - 20-24 .161 .149 .186 .165 - 7 -11 25-29 .183 .152 .200 .160 -17 -20 30-34 .137 .116 .145 .118 -15 -19 35-39 .085 .063 .089 .064 -26 -28 40-44 .037 .027 .036 .025 -23 -31 45-49 .008 .005 .007 .004 -37 -43 TFR 3.32 2.82 3.66 3.03 -15 -17 Brazil: Rural 15-19 .075 .063 .107 .092 -16 -14 20-24 .238 .224 .291 .272 - 6 - 7 25-29 .261 .215 .306 .249 -18 -19 30-34 .221 .187 .255 .214 -15 -16 35-39 .175 .137 .199 .154 -22 -23 40-44 .092 .066 .098 .069 -38 -30 45-49 .024 .015 .022 .013 -37 -41 TFR 5.43 4.53 6.39 5.32 -17 -17 Figures may not sum exactly to totals due to rounding errors. (Note that percentage reductions in the total national or Northeastern TFRs are usually higher than for the component urban and rural TFRs. This is presumably due to the effects of differential age-specific rural-to-urban migration rates for women. There was insufficient time to check on the accuracy of the base tables of raw data.) These changes conform to the classic pattern of the earlier stages of modern fertility declines, whereby the fertility of older women falls much more sharply than that of younger women. They are, moreover, an indication that the decline has been achieved largely through control of marital fertility rather than through delays in marriage. This pattern is somewhat less pronounced in the Northeast rural population. However, this may be attributed to the unusual circumstances of the drought which may not only have provided the initial impetus to fertility control but also have reduced fertility for married couples of all ages through the extensive migration, and hence separation of spouses, that it provoked. 21 Again, data from other sources support this general picture. Birth registration data, as noted above, show a pattern of larger falls in fertility in 1983 and 1984 among the older women throughout Brazil. For example. the 1980-84 percent decline in estimated Brazilian ASERs rose rather smoothly from 2 percent for women aged 15-19 years to 33 percent for women aged 45-49 years. This pattern was also pronounced in the Northeast. though the falls in fertility were larger at all ages; percent declines increased steadily from 14 percent for women under 25 to 45 percent in women over 45 years. Data from the 1986 PNSMIPF survey provide corroborating background information4 on the control of marital fertility by contraception. (See "Brazil Demographic and Health Survey 1986. Preliminary Report": BEMFAM/DHS. 1987.) By 1986, Northeastern women, though still lagging behind the rest of the country, were nevertheless well advanced in contraceptive knowledge and use. Almost all currently married women in the Northeast knew of the pill and female sterilization (the major methods in use throughout Brazil) and 53 percent were currently using contraception. By comparison, 70-73 percent of women in the southern regions of Brazil were current users, and 62 percent in the Central West. The principal reasons for lower use by Northeastern women than elsewhere appeared not to be much higher proportions currently pregnant or actively desiring another pregnancy, but rather a mixture of an ill-defined aversion to contraception ("nio quer/nio gosta") and fear of side-effects. These in turn can be attributed largely to lesser access in the Northeast to medical services and contraceptive supplies, hence to less information on, access to, and familiarity with modern contraception. Selection of baseline estimates for 1980-1985 5. After this summary survey of results, it was necessary to select final values for the base estimates of fertility and mortality levels in the rural and urban Northeast during the period 1980-85. For fertility it was decided to use the results of the 1984 PNAD for the present (pending verification and confirmation of the results by IBGE) since the data seemed broadly acceptable in levels, trends and patterns. The adjustment by the P2/F2 ratio was used. It seemed unwise to use any broader age-group since fertility might be changing rapidly and since the data for the older women were probably less reliable. The resulting rounded-off TFRs for 1980-85 are 4.0 for the urban population and 6.5 for the rural population. The overall value for the Northeast is then around 5. This compares well with Wong's estimates from vital registration data (using a 1980 census estimate combined with observed proportionate drops between 1980 and 1984) of 6.13 for 1980 and 4.6 for 1984: hence an average of 5.4 for the same period. 4This survey also reports higher fertility, both recent and lifetime, than did the PNAD. The PNSMIPF levels are rather similar to those estimated from the 1980 census. The most plausible explanations of this discrepancy are either/or greater completeness of reporting in the PNSMIPF than the PNAD or census (not surprising for a more detailed and intensive survey of fertility) or selection in the PNSMIPJ of the most fertile women through failure to locate more mobile, lower-fertility women (again not surprising in a household-based fertility survey). A full evaluation is impossible until full results from the PNSMIPF are available for analysis. However, it should be borne in mind meanwhile that the levels of fertility estimated from censuses and surveys in the meantime may prove to be on the low side. 22 6. The decision on mortality levels was more difficult. The 1984 PNAD data seemed substantially underreported. This may also have been true of the 1980 census data, though to a much lesser extent. However it seemed unwise to reject all the most recent data and to resort to projecting forward from data collected in the mid to late 1970s (which themselves would refer to the early 1970s). Therefore it was decided to accept the 1980 childhood mortality results as a basis. The estimate to be preferred here is an average of levels for women aged 25-29 and 30-34 years (the estimate from women aged 20-24 being compromised by the relatively late age at marriage and high proportion of first births), which refers to a period centered around 1975. This estimate is roughly a South level 16 (South being used in conformity with prevailing practice for Brazil and Latin America in general), with very little difference between urban and rural levels. The PNAD data, however, show no difference between urban and rural around 1975 but a widening gap thereafter. This could be due to data errors, but might actually reflect real trends, and certainly produces a pattern more in accord with a priori expectations and with differentials in the rest of Brazil and elsewhere. It was therefore decided to incorporate this feature of the PNAD data. Accordingly, rural childhood mortality was projected to still be a South level 16 in 1980-85 (the net effect of a probable further decline up to 1980 and a rise thereafter). Urban childhood mortality was projected to fall to level 17 in 1980-85 (the net effect of a greater fall up to 1980 and a smaller rise thereafter). 7. No new data on adult mortality have become available. Therefore it was decided to estimate adult mortality levels by taking the same broad age-patterns of mortality as those embodied in the Brazil life-table for 1975-80 constructed by CELADE for use in the national projections. The assumption is that Northeast urban and rural patterns are similar to national patterns, which is possibly dubious but unavoidable given the current lack of specific data on adult mortality. The one exception was that the extreme female advantage in childhood mortality embodied in the national table (more "North" than North) was not copied. It seemed an unlikely feature at least in the Northeast. The resulting estimates are shown in Table 4 below: TABL 4 Childhood Adulthood Coale-Demeny Coale-Demeny Age Group Level Age Group Level Rural Population Males Under 20 years South 16.0 Over 20 years North 16.7 Females Under 5 years South 16.0 Over 5 years North 15.0 Urban Population Males Under 20 years South 17.0 Over 20 years North 17.7 Females Under 5 years South 17.0 Over 5 years North 16.0 23 Population Projections 8. For details of Bank methodology for projecting mortality and fertility trends see: M. T. Vu: World Population Projections 1985: World Bank, 1985. Comparison of Bank and FUNDAJ Projections 9. A set of four projections for the Northeast from 1980 to 2000 by urban and rural sectors, and also for the separate states and principal cities, were made by FUNDAJ (Fundacao Joaquim Nabuco) in 1985 for use by SUDENE. A single mortality assumption was used throughout, that of a monotonic decline in mortality, with regional life expectancy rising from 51 years in 1980 to 64 years for the period 1995-2000. Two alternative fertility and migration assumptions were employed. The first fertility variant is of constant fertility throughout the projection period at the level of the 1970-80 decade, with an urban TER of 5, a rural TFR of 7.1 and a regional TER of 6.1. The second is of a monotonic decline from the foregoing levels in 1980 to TERs of 2.8, 4.1 and 3.5 respectively by 1995- 2000. The first migration variant is of constant levels and patterns of migration throughout the projection period identical to those of 1970-1980.- The second is of a monotonic decline in migration rates throughout the projection period to a level of half their initial values by 1995-2000. 10. Comparison of these assumptions with those used in the projections for this report (shown in Table 6 below and in the projection output. Tables A9. 10). indicate a generally more conservative projection of changes in the components of population growth in the Bank set. Base mortality estimates are similar, but the FUNDAJ projected decline up to 2000 is slightly greater than the optimistic Bank variant and substantially greater than the pessimistic variant. The base fertility estimates used by FUNDAJ (before the newest data had become available) are higher than those adopted for the Bank projections; projected levels in 1995-2000 are still slightly higher than the pessimistic Bank variant and noticeably higher than the optimistic variant. Migration base estimates and projections differ little between the sets,5 but the Bank decline in the optimistic variant is somewhat smaller than the FUNDAJ migration decline variant. 5Note, however, some methodological ditferences in the projections. FUNDAJ specifies urban and total net sex-and- age specific migration rates and derives the rural rates as a residual. The Bank specifies net sex-and- age specific rates for rural areas (using as a base the derived, residual, FUNDAJ rates), then distributes the resulting numbers of emigrants by urban and out-of-region destinations to obtain urban rates. The same sex/age patterns are assumed for both urban and out-of region migration. Regional rates are obtained (like the entire regional projection output) by aggregation of urban and rural. 24 TABLE 5 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 1995-2000 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 Mortality: Life Expectancy (year) Optimistic Assumption Urban 56.3 58.6 61.0 63.5 66.1 68.8 69.5 Rural 53.9 56.2 58.5 60.9 63.4 66.0 68.7 Pessimistic Assumption Urban 56.3 57.4 58.6 59.8 60.9 62.0 63.1 Rural 53.9 55.1 56.2 57.3 58.5 59.7 60.8 Fertility: Total Fertility Rate Optimistic Assumption Urban 4.00 3.47 2.85 2.41 2.25 2.17 2;16 Rural 6.50 5.96 4.63 3.35 2.57 2.25 2.17 Pessimistic Assumption Urban 4.00 3.53 2.99 2.58 2.44 2.41 2.37 Rural 6.50 6.09 5.14 3.98 3.27 2.69 2.44 11. A comparison of the broad features of the results is shown below in Table 6. Only the FUNDAJ fertility decline variants are used, since there is overwhelming evidence from the newest data that fertility has already declined noticeably from the 1970-80 base levels.6 TABLE 6 Bank FUNDAJ Total Population Constant Declining 2000 (in millions) Optimistic Pessimistic Migration Migration Northeast 48.8 48.1 43.3 46.8 Rural 17.0 14.5 7.7 14.5 Urban 31.8 33.6 35.7 32.3 Present Urban 65 70 82 69 6Projected total Northeast population for 2000 was 53 million assuming constant fertility and constant migration, and 58 million assuming constant fertility and declining migration. Percentages urban were 83 and 68 respectively. 25 The total Northeast population projected for 2000 is 48-49 million according to the Bank set, and 43-47 million according to the FUNDAJ set, a difference of 4 percent with declining migration variants, and 10 percent with constant migration variants. FUNDAJ projections however, show a faster rate of urbanization under either migration assumption. Totals for the urban population, of course, do not diverge, relatively speaking, as much as for the rural population (32-36 million versus the Bank's 32-34 million for urban dwellers and 8-15 million versus the Bank's 15-17 million for rural dwellers. However, broadly the same overall picture emerges from both sets of projections, namely substantial overall growth in the Northeast's population and rapid urbanization within the region, resulting in static or declining rural populations and massive increases in urban populations. 26 Tbl A.&.Aa Amlai of Bril 1960 Cesus Data on Fertlity and Child Mortality bF the P/F Ratio ~ethod and Bra~s Child Svival , Using the AEmEC Pakagen Natinal Lvel BRAZIL 1980 CENSUS NATIONAL E pLi-n- _:2cLed _=. follows. .n Inde, YAlue DeScr ipt.Dr, Nuiber Selccted 7 . f , 1 2 Botli Fert 9 Mw-t ' _ ~dr' '-fr lj1.- 1 No El Padr " C rr. T.-- : nt r/ N. 3. CEB3 1 IgnorE N .3. L_c.- Tabi.e 7-milv 1 2-D F: lý j/ - 11 23 Satic 3t Barth 5 15.e CenEus or E~rvey Date 6 1980.67 hv casic data -3ntered are as follows: 15-19 20-24 25-29 Ut--74 5-- 1 -EMFOP 6311724 5757632 4645157 17808°4 7144251 2 35. '-.. CEBT 94211b 5190712 260051 1180: 4 127 228 1 ' BIR-UF .:.o52o 104o215 945472 6029<'5 :47--1 11 CH1LF;VT V -'84c 4tås55 841958 1652199 11.2-.2 ' .j 27 BRAZIL 1980 CENSUS NATIONAL alcultc c F', atics £3r -L-, irths ,2E WOMEN CEP ANANUAL A,ElAE FEF I_r 302MF PISTHS FARITY ATES - T BURVEY MJ-10 t811724 94211M 96520 0.13 l.ö 1ì-2a 7575:5:2 5190712 1046215 0.902 1.022 s 2 =5= 4645167 D260051 945472 1.597 ~.14 1 11 '_-71 779894 11807364 602905 7.122 c157 i 5-up 144251 15270298 717o41 4.220 te1Mu 4¯-44 2797165 17322924 115991 4.949 0.c52 5-4° 2285882 1211,787 2924M 5.25 m0i 37 Feported and adjusted age-specific fertility rates f,r tr-e age gc s Factjrs are - !Dl-mn 2, no adjustment, -, P(2)/F(2); 4, F (7) / F (7) 5, Average of F(2)/F(2) and F(7',Ft 6, Average of P(2)/F(2), P(7>/F E7 3 ' A3E GFCUF f(ii f(i) fi - N1 Factr 1.000 1.122 1.095 1.108 1 122 15-19 0.0710 0.0797 Q.0778 0.Ö787 -70° 20-24 0.1899 0.2130 0.2078 '.2104 2.1:( 25-29 0.2014 0.2260 0.22u5 o.2277 226, 70-74 0.1542 0.1730 0.1698 0.1709 . c 75-79 0.1043 0.1170 0.1141 0.1156 '011-- 40-44 0.0469 0.0526 0.0514 -. 052n 1-26 4-49 0.0096 0.0108 0.0106 0 0107 :1:8 =TAL FEMTILITY 7.8870 4.7617 4.2548 4.7089 4 7i19 28 BRAZIL 1980 CENSUS NATIONAL n~ nt cr r-f child mortality -r-m Den urtions of -hildrern dead MLif2 uie Table Family is- NORIH ,dEE FrOF. A(E q MOPT. rE, = EL1VÅLENT LE'~ **1 DEAD LEVEL DPTE q 1 c,f :hildr en is P0TH F(= (Z ~ 1 l,1 116 2. :P2 i -?7cP li 0.11 5 Z ju 6 5 ''. 39 1 17 i '4 l u =2-9 (. 1<77 58 - 1241 [0 -.1-1 17. - t, 1 2. 27 k~719 i.11: E 'L 1 40- 14~1 15 i. 1°0 16. o 1969. o9 0. i754 0. 11 e, 57.29 15-- '° i'. .2S 20 - 1n222 16. e7 --6.81 (, 0754 w.1102 57 ¯¯') Avar ge Le e3 , Ages 20- 4 : l. e7 >.074 0 1156 57.7' M7del -ife Table Famil, is: SOUTH AGE FFOF. AGE q( MOFT. FEF. **** EDUIVALENT VALLE- * 3FOUF DEAD LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) e '0 1'3 of children is BOTH F<1)/F(2) 0.152 ; F f ) - I5-1? 1117 1 0.1124 15.68 1979.64 0.1121 -.1705 1 ' 20--24 0. 1007 2 0. 1060 18. .7 197.42 0. i' O. 1215 '1.:5 25-:9 0.0991 - 0.1014 19.16 1976.59 0. 809 0.1 ;72 ~ 19 0-4 0.1086 5 u.1116 18.92 10-4.78 0.C824 0.1111 ¯ 0.1241 10 ,.1297 18.~1 1971.88 0. )884 0.122" A1.2° ;k- 44 '.14~'1 15 0.1464 17."2 1 69. 12 0. j9-9 .1 ~- 2¯ 3 -p° 1) 13 "C ( 1605 17.4- 19t.9 C.19(4 .- i 12 l -erage Level, Ages 20-34 18.82 0 08-4 0 1152 62 61 Mcdel Life Table Family is: EAST AGE PROP. 5E q(x) MORT. REF. **** EDUIVALENT VALUES ** gFOUP DEAD E LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) e (0 ei1 Sa o-f children is BOTH P(1)/F(2) = .15 , F(2) F k) - 0 4 5 15 19 0.1107 1 0.1200 15.60 1979.62 0.1194 U.1-74 54.59 55. 5 2 24 L). 1,-)0)7 2 0. 106'' 17. 47 1078. ~'6 0 .0921 0. 118- Ec9. 1 1 57-, .5 7 s2 -29 C. )991 -0.1002 18.11 1976. 48 0. U8-2 C1 . 105 60.66 59. 23 -4 0. 1086 5 0. 1100 17.91 1974.2: U.0860 U. 196 r. 16 52 5 --9 ' 1241 10 0. 1283 17.42 1971.69 0. 0928 0. 1192 53. 99 =521 0.14-1 15 0.1456 16.91 1968.86 0.1001 Q.1297 5" 5 4 C-9 .1588 20 0 1602 16.70 1965.64 0.10-'1 0.1740 .24 '- Average Level, Ages 20-74 17.8- 0.0871 0.1111 59.4 29 BRAZIL 1980 CENSUS NATIONAL Estimation o-f child mcrtality from prcrorticns c' M1oii t.if'e TaL-a Fni ly is: IWEST ABE FRCF. AGE k *OF'T. FEF. **** EDUIV';LEN~4 2 - 3RCJF DE;AD LEVEL DATE q(1) q 5e_ o-f :h.Jdrsr is BCTH P(1)''P2) = 0.15: , F'- F E. - 5 .x17 I 0.11939 174 1979. 52 0.118 0.17:7 5_ -Y -~<-24 c 107 2 . 1062 16.2~ 19C?-E. -8 C. 087: U. 12-? 5 25-2~? 0, C901 - 0.0997 17.10 19~'6.5: 0.07~71 0. 1C'8 - . 4 C,- -- 4 ' 1 usc: 0. 11c2 1C. 99 1974. -2 0. 075- 0. C) 9 t8 ..1241 1 0.1231 1:.61 1071.87 0 829 k 1 1 9 7 ^ 40-44 0.14--1 15 0 1459 16.15 1969.21 0. 882 C 1-: 5_ -- 3 - 45-49 C).1599 2 0.1a,u3 16.06 1966.26 0.089: <.12~' '5 92 51j A,,rage Level, Ages 20- -4 16.77 0.08c9 0.11:9 '~~: :1 5 30 Table A.1.B: Analysis of Brazil 1980 Census Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEROPC Package: Urban Population BRAZIL 1980 CENSUS URBAN !- pins selecteEd are afolw t.,. n Index Val ue Descr i pti on Number Selected Tye of Anavsis 1 2 Both Fert & Mort Badrv rorrction 2 1 No El Badry Corr. rRatment of N. 3. CEB 3 1 Ignore N. 1. vomenr Life Table Family 4 1 C-D Family - All SEax Ratio at Birth 5 105.0 CenSLs or £urvey Date 6 1980. 67 The basic data enterad are as follows: 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35--39 .-44 4 1 FEMPOP 4749300 4212632 3444980 2787410 2260313 2 'EBT 561654 3277614 6038266 770289-3 476051 891 6 BIR-SUR 241292 680041 631874 382934 192373 ¯ 14 CHSURVT 498528 2951591 5468223 6911592 74720 77 k)4 31 EгFiAZIL 1984 CENSUS URBAN С_��'--1=�гоп =� �`� Ratins ror ALL ��,r±rs '=F_ '�Qмr�d СЕР r11VlЦUAL t�VE�'А�Е I=EГ�TIL`,ту r�_i1�!L�='��=� ,- - - - ��CL1F PIRTHB FAFIT" �r-�TES ��ti�iLI�-' =��RV�Y 1�-1а 474^_'�>iз 5гs1а�,� �41�9� rз 11° U.�>51 �? ir_`Ь . ' ��?-�4 'F:1��'I? 'I??%Ь14 S8гзiз�l Гr,�7° �у.1�1 � ,г_'с 1, _' - ��-.�° '_ Я�L%4-4�i( � д,t з'S� �� �,71 г�74 1. 7� _" �) 1�' I _ �� I - � '_ '� �^gT�j.t� 77tз�g�-• -•8�9'�4 �,75= �зг l" ` -С, � 'J-_° ���`- _ 1' 847�г_зJ1 1пТ��'?' ', 7�(з (з. _'Q� -г у'? у.`.. - �t=-4� �,г;7" � 891144= ?'91� 4. �4кi гi, �,�� -' �1� ,- � д�-'�l9 1�� !� � 1г"зг'I 7р (з,Г'г"з -' -"п% Ica . ц�^L� i+.�7?�?J 14 4г s � .. _ 1.-г_ _ Sepor±ed астд ад�г_,s±ed .дgе-sресгfгс ter*�г;гtу rates for ti�ггН 3�е Эr�-�- Factcrs �re ° Coi��mn �, г,о ад�иs±пепt: - '_, F�."'.?IF��1; 4, F(�)�Ft_); 5, A�erage of F'(�):F(I'> апд F�T;'г��>; 6, Ац?t^д32 Of Р��) /F t,^_) , F' (_) �F �'_ i апд � ч r�, пзЕ �F DI..IF f� 1� f � г) f( 1` � � 1� t 1) Fдc±or• 1.г?с?г� 1.1�?'э 1. -з81 I,�?4� 1, t1�t 15-19 �з.0Еr24 4.0688 г?. г_з574 iз, c.зbS1 с_з. г",�9� : :з-z'-i� �7. Sbfiti �. 1863 �i. 13�5 �з. I344 �з 1°-'4 =5-�4 0. 1#�"SO'г 4. 1997 Сз. 145b г>. 197б гз. �.гэГ�� _г?-?4 0. Х�'�fr п. 1452 гз. 14I'� iз, 14'9 г_з. 14�1 'S-'9 0.0804 U. v8$7 г:1. c.igб8 г"з, <)g7g гэ, ti�9� 4г_з-44 Сз. �?��8 0. Г_з�b2 iэ, i��5,��, г?, �з��4 iз, �i_�4 45-49 гз, n06� г?, qn7c7 Гз, гзгi�9 р, nгзб9 р, _�i�7iз Т'7Т=�� FEFTILITY '. �17' =, b597 '. 5В48 '.6��' '.681 �' � � ,,,,, _ -� л , 32 BRAZIL.1990 CENSUS URBAN Estimutian o+ child mortality from pruportl,.= of child:,-en daad Mudmi ýifa Tatile Family is: NORTH AGE FROP. AGE ØM MORT. REF. EDtjIVALEýIT GROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE (1) q(5) 9) ej10*ý 'ý-ý-x j-F c.ý-.ildren is 2OTH F'WIPIZ? - 0.152 F42=f7) - ý44A1- 15-19 9.1124 i 0.1174 12.81 1979.62 (h i 169 0. 1562' j7.64 W 20-24 0,0995 2 0.1007 il" 10 1970.,4 0. 0Si 1 0. 12':,ýZ 551 25-29 0.0944 3 Gu0912 L7.53 1,776. 7:7 0,-0669 0. !()47 -17. 4- 3n-34 0.1027 5 0.1027 17.64 1974.69 0. 0659 C,, - 1 Cý ,7 ý5,ý . -:':' 1 7: 53-39 W1172 10 Cu1244 17.34 1972.39 W 068-7 CU1074 23.97 77. t 40-44 0.1353 15 0.1417 16.99 1969.84 0.0721 W1135 52.69 58.vý-: 45-49 0.1313 20 Cu 1551 16.97 1966.96 0.0723 i 13S ý 19. ý:ý I. Averag2 Le*21, Ages 20-34 : 17.09 0.0712 G).1I13 5G.-ý- Model Lia TRI312 F,:kmily is: 130UTH ASE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. -3ROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q(!) cl < 5) pc,ý a of childrer iýý POTH 0, 152 2) F' 3 1 LS-19 0.1t24 t 0.1137 t5.53 1979.67 0. 11:34 t). I 77:ý 20-24 0.0955 2 ýu 10Q1 1B.43 1979.43 0'. E, 721 i 2 ý.) 25-29 0,09,4 3 0.0969 19.47 1975.64 0. 77 ý 'Iýý:24 70-34 C.1027 5 Cu 1059 19.26 1Q74.46 0. 7 cý , ý)"3- 7 53-39 ýý i 172 5) W1229 18.65 1972ýA 0, 0 S!3 i :. ýý4 40-4A 0.1355 i ý: 0.1391. IB. 0S 1969. ý:'cý 2 ag.ap 3.1313 5) Cu 1533 17.76 l ý:?-,ý6. 16 20 --3 4 19. 05ý R I ýlad%-21 T-_ýkble Family is: EAS-7 AGE PROP. AGE q(x> MORT. REF, GROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE ý,-,ildren ýs BOTH P(H/PC21 - Cý i W1. ).1124 1 0.1215 t9,30 1979,51 R. 2' '.71!ý:I - 3 --D 4 :2 0. 1052 17.53 1972.3- 1ý 02 1.5 0.1171 59.25 57, 6:ý 23-29 5944 '7- o. 0937 12. 3 6 l 97.j. -53 0. (.)7,79 Cý. 1007 61.27 5C.57 -5-7a ý=27 9 0.1044 19.20 1974.32 0. 082 1 (J. 1 CG c? b C). 2 6 ýýS. ":ýE 73-75 ý.1172 10 0.1215 17.73 1971.82 0.0834 39.7ý5 ý7.Qý 3ý-it 1355 15 0.1382 17.23 1969.03 tb 0955 Cul231 58.53 97. W, 15-45 0. i 5 Q 20 1529 16. ý91ýý65AIý C). 0988 0.1279 57,17 -=ý7. Cý Aver>ge Level, Ages 20-34 18.03 0. 0843 (.1. 1071 5 3. 33 BRAZIL 1980 CENSUS URBAN .-,nat ion ::'-il d -nort glit >r omD t. ;-,t. na_~ Jhi-. d-_ PIEF. A _DE q `' ~2FT. Er EUi I T 201 EW _E9M TTE F :'ild-D- is BOTH F,1 ' f) -= C.15. c 3 ý 11_-19 -.111:4 1 :11207 17 . 14 1'779. ni 1 O. 11~-P9 Ci.i 7 c995 2 '~.1(,52 16.9 1°79..'9 0. 32±6 1-2- 5 2- 9 :2. ~944 -, ~ t . 8 7 9-'.5 (2.c --40 i1 -'4 '.1027 5 0 1 )46 17. 1 9' 4. 41 0. U748 - . 1 42 11,72 1 k. ý 14 .94 , , _ 7 C > :7 . - - 1-44 0.155 15 0) 1787 o.49 1°t9.77 - .242 de 1 - ; -..1 2c G e 15:- l- -- 1 , 2 q . 1;,. 1 vraeLc2,iel , Ages 20-74 : 13. 99 0. ~)737 0. 1, -,9 i- 34 Table A.1.C: Analysis of Brazil 1980 Census Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMCPC Package: Rural Population BRAZIL 1980 CENSUS RURAL t -:ct&d e I11 at :- ~Inde, il1Le srptt NUnber Lel ctd - ' , 1 -oth FerE r r r n 1 NL El Badry Lor FL n a v 3 CE I £Inore N. 3a 1ome4 1Tbl- Fami 4 1 C-D Faml- - ill -? RM -3 a _xt 1. Cenr>I or Er-ey Date L 1900 67 The a data ntered r as 1cl1ws I FE!PF -2012424 1 C)0> 12notS: c99494 99-49- 2 CEPT 80402 191Yv"F 2:17 3 410071 1942 4k 9:R-3JF 15S2'_0 76SI71 1:293 21?"1 !4 CYEUFYT 1 12 i'1o464 23775 761 IY 4 1 _41z2 11-11E 35 URAZIL 1980 CENSUS RURAL 2-lc=atim of P/F Ratios -For ALL bi.ths AGE .CMEN CEB ANNUAL AVERAGE FER-T1LITY CUMULi--E- GRCUP BIRTHS PARITY RATES FERTIL! SURYEY 15-19 2062424 380462 155228 0.184 O,Q75 0.159 Z0-24 1541000 1913098 366174 1.241 0.238 1.056 25-29 1200183 3221785 313598 2.684 0.261 2.357 30-34 953484 4100771 219971 4.128 0.221 =50 35-39? 863938 47c4237 151268 5.549 3.1~5 2.527 4--44 785893 4911481 72072 6.250 0.092 3.147 45-49 b26160 4140048 15140 6.612 0.124 Z.405 1 Repartec and adjust3d age-specific fertility rates for brue age grokp- Factors are : Column 2, nio adjustment; 3:, P(2)/ýF('2); 4 , F'(3) /F (3) ; 5, Averøage of F(2)/F(2) and P3/F -), 6 , Average o-f P (2),/F (2) ,F'( F 3 adP( G RGiLP -F (i f+(i) + (i) FM 7i)(j', Factor: 1.000 1.176 1.139 1.157 1.159 15-19 0.0913 0.1074 0.1040 0.1057 0. 1059 20-24 0.2478 0.2913 0.2822 0.2868 0.2872 25-29 0.2600 0.3057 0.2961 0.3009 0.3014 30-34 0.2169 0.2551 0.2470 0.2510 0.2514 35-39 0.1690 0.1987 0.1925 0.1956 .1959 a0-44 0.0829 0.0975 0.0944 0.0959 .0961 45-49 0.0186 0.0218 0.0211 0.0215 0.0215 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.4323 6.3875 6.1862 6.2869 6.2968 36 BRAZIL 1980 CENSUS RURAL E-timation of child mortality fr prpoprtions of children derd Modal Life Table Family is: NORTi AGE PROP. ABE q ( MORT. REF. EDUIVALENT GROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q(!) q ) (01 Bet =F children is BOTH PI)/IP12) = 0.149 FP2/P 3 41 15-19 0.1032 i 0.1157 12.94 1979.67 0 .11i 5 3 ,1932 4.1.7 7 51z 20 -24 0. 1028 2 0. 1038 15.89 1978.45 0.0833 0 6 1356 . 6 7 25-29 0.,1080 3 0.1033 16.73 1976.66 0.0748 0.1182 57,42 -35 30-34 0.1196 5 0,1132 16.75 1974.51 0.0745 Ca.1178 75~ 1 3539 0. 1362 10 0.1429 16.45 1972.08 0.»077U 0 1232 -6. 76 55 9 40-44 0.1568 - 15 0. 1622 16.08 1969.44 0. 13. 1299 U. 4 - 41-49 0.1734 20 1760 16.10 1966.5a 0.01 0.1296 55.83 55.351 nverage Level, Ages 20-34 : 16.45 0. 0775 C.1232 5.76 55. 8 Mcdel Life Table Family is: SOUTH AGE FROF. ABE q (x) MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT UALüEE÷ 9ROLIP D E A ID x11 LEVEL DATE q(!) q=) e (10 Sex of children is BOTH P(1) /2) = 0.149 P(2 /F''3)= 0 ,62 15-19 0.1082 1 0.1123 15.69 1979.68 0.1120 0.1703 51.102 '7,0 20-24 0.1028 2 0.1082 18.22 1978.44 0.0892 0.1243 601 . 6 .1. 25-29 0.1080 3 0.1099 18.64 1976.56 0.0851 0.1165 62.15 . 72 30-34 0. 1196 5 0. 1222 18.35 1974.26 0.0880 0. 1219 1,39 6 35-39 0. 1362 10 0. 1416 17r71 1971. 68 0.0940 0. 1336 9,80 591 40-44 0.1568 15 0.1597 17.08 1968.85 0.0995 0.1447 52= 78. 45-49 0.1734 20 0. 1743 16.80 1965.70 0. 1019 0. 149~ 57,6 ~ Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 18.40 0.0874 0.1209 c1.54 0 Model Life Table Family is: EAST AE FROP. 'AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EDUIVALENT VALLES GROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(1j q (5) e (0c) e .y Sex of children is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.149 ;P(2)/PA 3 u.4 42 15-19 0.1082 1 0. 1.190 15.66 1979.67 0.1185 0. 1561 54.73 55.56 20-24 0.1028 2 0.1085 17.34 1978.38 0.0939 0. 1208 58.80 57.47 25-29 0.1080 3 0.1088 17.65 1976.45 0.0896 0.1147 59.54 57,77 30-34 0. 1196 5 0. 1206 17.38 1974. 11 0.0934 0. 1202 58.183 57.05 35-39 0. 1362 10 0. 1402 16.88 1971.48 0. 1004 0. 1302 57,68 56. 91 40-44 0.1568 15 0.1589 16.34 1968.58 0. 1083 . 1415 56= 8 6,01 45-49 0 .1734 20 0.1741 16.13 1965. 34 0. 1114 0. 1 459 5 87 56. GE Average Level Ages 20-34 : 17.46 0.0923 0.1186 59,07 '7- 7 37 BRAZIL 1980 CENSUS RURAL Estimation cf child mortalily from proportios of chidrn dead Life Tab le Family is: WEST AGE PROP. AGE q (x) MORT. REF. **** EWUIVALENT k GROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) . ex of :hildren is ICTH F(1)/P(2) 0.149 ; P(2)/P(3) 15-19 0.1082 1 0.1183 13.78 197'.67 0.1178 0.1728 5' 4 4 20-24 0.1028 2 0.1084 16.09 1978.40 0. 0890 0 . 1265 55.3 25-29 C. 1080 -. 0.1082 16. 60 1976.50 0.0829 0. 1170 57 30-34 0.1196 5 0.1207 16.42 1974.21 0.0850 C.1203 56 2= 35-39 0. 1362 1) 0.1398 16.03 1971.67 0.0897 0.1276 55- 4 40-44 0. 1568 15 0. 1590 15.56 1968.95 0 . 0954 0, 1.367 547 - 45-49 0.1734 20 0-1744 15.48 1966.00 009653 0.1381 54 Aver4g Lvel, Ages 20-4 : 16.5.7 0.0856 0.1213 566 12,13 .&,.1 38 Table A.2.A: AnaLysis of BraziL 1980 Census aata on FertiLity and Child MortaLity'by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child SurvivaL Technique, Using the AFEOPC Package: Northeast Region BRAZIL 1980 CENSUS NORTHEAST REGION The options selected are as follows: Option Index Value Description Number Selected Type of Analysis 1 2 Both Fert & Mort El Badry Correction 2 1 No El Badry Corr. Treatment cf N.S.CEB 3 1 Ignore N.S. women Lif.e Table Family 4 1 C-D Family - All Sex Ratio at Birth 5 105.0 Census or Survey Date 6 1980.67 The basic data entered are as follows: 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 1 FEMPOP 2034523 1517884 1165503 980432 843989 762987 59001 2 CEET 319256 1662477 2938713 39423 4566801 4771759 3912C67 6 BIR-SUR 128276 324860 298540 216851 140185 65595 13W 14 CHSURVT 272875 1427598 .2512075 3302325 3718383 37567Z6 2980417 39 BRAZIL 1980 CENSUS NORTHEAST REGION Calculation of F/F Ratios for ALL births AGE WOMEN CEB ANNUAL AVERAGE FERTILITY CUMULATED PIF .1 GROUP BIRTHS PARITY RATES FERTILITY SURVEY 15-19 2034523 319256 123276 0.157 0.063 0.132 1.1w2 20-24 1517384 1662477 324860 1.095 0.214 0.916 1.110 25-29 1165503 293S713 298540 2.521 0.256 2.15S 30-34 980432 3943223 216851 4.022 0.221 3.349 35-39 843989 4566801 140185 5.411 0.166 4.294 40-44 762987 4771759 65595 6.254 0.086 4.878 L.., 45-49 588088 3912067 13366. 6.652 0.023 5.1z0 Reported and adjusted age-specific fertility rates for true age gro'ps : Factors are : Column 2. no adjustment; :7, P(2) /F,.2) 4, P (3)/F(3); 5, Average of P(2)/F(2) and P!T)/FO'; 6, Average of P(2)/F(2), P(3)/F(3) and (1)F! 4, AGE GROUP f(i) f(i) f(i) f(i) f(i) Factor: 1.000- 1.196 1.169 1.182 1.139 15-19 0.0767 0217 0.0896 0.0907 0.0912 20-24 0.2255 0.2697 0.2635 0.2666 0.26S0 25-29 0.2560 0.3062 0.2991 0.3027 0.3042 30-34 0.2161 . 0.2585 0.2525 0.2555 0.2569 5-39 0.1598 0.1912 0.1868 0.1890 0.1900 40-44 0.0777 0.0929 0.0908 0.0918 0.0923 45-49 0.0174 0.0209 0.0204 0.0206 0.0207 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.1460 6.1548 6.0136 6.0842 6.1163 40 BRAZIL 1980 CENSUS NORTHEAST REGION Estimation of child mortality from propcrtions of children dead Model Life Tale Family is: NORTH AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **A* ERUIVALENT VALUES **** BROL'P DEAD x LEVEL DATE q!1) q(5 e(0) e(10' 8S; af childrsn is BOTH P(1U /P(2 = 0.143 ; P()/PC7) = 0.434 19 0. 1453 1 . 10. 05 1979.65 0.1537 0. 259 41. --7.. 74 20-24 0..1413 2 0.1443 13.18 1978.49 0. 1126 C. 1 81 43.77, zi.3Z 25-9 01452 -5 0.1409 14.45 1975.830 C, C) 8 60 1-16lý;z 313 4 -30-34 0.-1625 Z) 0. 1629 14. 41 1974. 76- 0 . 09970 0 . 16"25 5 1. 7-3 z::. ': 3 35-39 0 ..18582 10u 0. 1975 14. 03 1972. 46ý - 10:31 0. 1701 50.9 -0 52. 3 2 Avarage Level., Ages 20-34 : 14.01 0.1033, 0.1704 '50.76 52.3,6 Mcds Life Table Family is: SOUTH ASE PRCP. AKE q(x) MORT. REF. %%%EQUl'V-ALENT VALUES A* GROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q (1) q (5) e (O) S (1)W Sex af chiidr8n i s BOTH! PC1)/F'(2) = .143 ; Pk(2)/P3 0. 434 15-19 0..1453 1 0 .1496 1 1.C87 1979. 66 0. 1492 C0. 2483 45ý..97 Z2.7C3 20 -24 0.-1413 2 0,.1504 15. 24 1978. 48 0 . 1161 0 . 1788 5ý3.`97 56c. 45Z 25-29 0.-1452 is 0 .1496 16. 22 1976. 71 u. 1071 0. 1603 56. 2C 57.- 6 30C-34 0.-1625 5 0 . 16 79 _P 15ý.8_3_ L97 .5__0.16 0 _ý7% _ 5ý.. 3ý 37. - 35 -97 0O..IS58 10 0. 1950 15. 08 1972. 10 0. 1175 0. 1818 53. El9 Z.. 2.,, 40-44 0.2127 15 0.2186 14. 38 1969.37 0.1242 0.1957 51.9 55.4 45-49 0.2381 20 0.2415 13.94 1966.23 0.129 0.124 8 ,4 . 3n5 Avaraça Lave!, Ages.20-T4 : 15.76 0. 1112 0. 169 55.2 57. 0 Model Life Table Family is: EAST AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EOUIVALENT VALUES **:* GROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) e(0) a(10'' Sex of children i BOTH F(1) /P(2) = 0.143; P(2) /P () = 0.424 15-19 0.1453 t 0.1591 13.16 1979.64 0.1484 0.2132 4S.70 52..87 20-24 0.1413 2 0.1503 15.06 1978.42 0.1277 0.1692 53.27 54 22-29 0.1452 2 0.1476 15.65 1976.60 0.117 0.1563 54.71 55.55 70-34 0.1625 5 0.1654 15.26 1974.40 0.1246 0.164S 53.77 55. 1 35-39 0 . 1858 10 0. 1928 14.63 1971.91 0.1345 0.1789 52.24 54.44 40-44 0.2127 15 0. 2172 13.98 1969."7 0.1449 0.1939 50.66 53.74 45-49 0.2381 20 0.241o 13.57 1965.88 0.1517 0.2036 49.88 53.30 Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 15.32 0.12Z7 0.1634 552 5.20 41 BRAZIL 1980 CENSUS NORTHEAST REGION EsLimatir of =hild mortality from prwportions of children dead Model Life Table Family is: WEST AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EU1IVALENT VALUES**** GROUF DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) a(0. =(1W Sex of children is BOTH P (1) /P(2) = 0.143 P(2)/P(3) = 0.434 15-19 0.1453 1 0.1578 11.09 1979..64 0.1572 0.2357 43.73 4G.~4 20-24 0.1413 2 0.1504 13.57 1978.44 0.1207 0.1776 49.92 51.64 25-29 0.1452 3 0.1470 14.41 1976.65 0.1096 0.1595 51.96 52.2 . 30-34 0.1625 5 0.1658 14.12 1974.49 0.1132 0.1653 51.23 52.32 39 0. 1858 10 0. 1927 13.62 1972.08 0.1200 0.1764 50.06 51. 70 '- 40-44 0.2127 15 C. 2180 13.10 1969.45 0. 1272 0. 1885 48. 75 51 .- 45-49 0.2381 20 0.2 422 12.85 1966.49 0.1308 0.1943 48.12 50.77 Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 14.03 0.1144 0.1671 51.07 52.21 42 Table A.2.8: Analysis of BraziL 1980 Census Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEROPC Package: Northeast Urban Population BRAZIL 1980 CENSUS NORTHEAST URBAN Calculationof P/F Ratios for ALL births PEE WOMEN CES ANNUAL AVERAGE FERTILITY CUMULATED P(I I SROUP BIRTHS PARITY RATES FERTILITY SURVEY 15-19 1125545 147127 59519 0.131 0.053 0.110 1. 20-24 866216 791946 156874 0.914 0.181 0.769 1.131 25-29 659415 1427639 143930 2.165 0.218 180 1. 30-34 544569 1935633 98555 3.554 0.181 2.825 1.253 75-Z9 452641 2219349 57086 4.903 0.126 w.565 1.Z75 40-44 411002 2378312 25405 5.787 0.062 1.996 1.443 45-49 312139 1987273 4983 6.247 0.016 4.166 1.40? Reported and adjusted age-specific fertility rates for true age groups: Factors are : Column 2, no adjustment; 3, P(2)/F(2); 4, P(CZ)/F (3) ; 5, Average of P(2) /F(2) and P(Z) /F(3); 6, Average of P(2) /F (2) , F(3) /F (3) aF 4: AGE GROU F f(i) f(i) f(i) f(i) Factor: 1.000 1.199 1.183 1.186 1.210 15-19 0.0646 0.0769 0.0765 0.0767 0.0782 20-24 0.1916, 0.2272 0.2260 0.2266 0.2311 25-29 0.2175 0.2587 0.2574 0.2580 0.2632 30--34 0.1756 0.2089 0.2078 0.2084 0.2126 35-39 0.1206 0.1434 0.1427 0.1430 - 0.1459 40-44 0.0556 0.0661 0.0658 0.0660 0.0673 45-49 0.0119 0.0141 0.0141 0.0141 0.0144 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.1841 4.9768 4.9507 4.9638 5.0638 43 BRAZIL 1980 CENSUS NORTHEAST URBAN Estimation of child mortality from proportions of children dead Model Life Table Family is: NORTH AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. A*.* EQUIVALENT VALUES **ts GROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) e(o) e(10) Eex of children is BOTH P(!)/F(2) = 0.143 ; P(2)/PC3) = 0.422 1E-19 0.1560 1 0.1641 9.39 1979.63 0.1635 0.2761 39.Zs 46.3 20-24 0.1470 2 0.1506 12.78 1978.49 0.1172 0.1968 47.77 51.Z7 25-29 0.1453 3 0.1419 14.39 1976.35 0.0992 0.1628 51.69 53. 4 30-34 0.1650 5 0.1666 14.23 1974.37 0.100 -.1661 5i.29 57.1Z 35-39 0.1889 10 0.2021 13.34 1972.64 0.1052 0.1741 50.34 52.6! 40-44 0.2151 15 0.2267 13.46 1970.15 0.1095 0.1821 47.42 52.07 45-49 0.2420 0.2496 13.25 167.2 .17 0.1865 48.92 51.7Z Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 13.30 0.1057 0.1749 50.25 52.61 Model Life Table Family is: SOUTH AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. Att* EQUIVALENT VALUES A GROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) e(0) e(10) Sex of children is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.143 ; P(2) /P(7) = 0.422 15-19 0.1560 1 0.1591 10.96 1979.63 0.1587 0.2691 43.31 51.13 20-24 0.1470 2 0.1570 14.79 1978.48 0.1203 0.1875 52.91 55.90 25-29 0.1453 2 0.1505 16.17 1976.77 0.1076 0.1612 56.15 57.9 30-34 0.1650 5 0.1714 15.65 1974.67 0.1123 0.1711 54.92 56.75 75-39 0.1889 10 0.1992 14.89 1972.29 0.1194 0.1856 52.13 56.02 40-44 0.2151 15 0.2221 14.23 1969.62 0.1257 0.1987 51.57 55.21 45-49 0.2420 20 0.2464 13.74 1966.49 0.1304 0.2086 50.42 54.a1 Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 15.52 0.1134 0.1722 54.66 56.81 Mcdel Life Table Family is: EAST AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **tt EQUIVALENT VALUES *&# GROUP DEAD X LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) e(0) e(10) Sex of children is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.143 ; P(2)/P(7,) = 0.422 15-19 0.1560 1 0. 1697 12.54 1979.62 0.1690 0.2285 47.20 52.22 20-24 0.1470 2 0.1568 14.73 1978.43 0.1330 0.1767 52.47 54.55 25-29 0.1453 3 0.1483 15.62 1976.66 0.1192 0.1570 54.62 55.52 30-04 0. 1610- 6 15 -11_4-Z1- 1269_Q .6. 1 5 Q _ 141 f 4 -r7 25-29 0.1889 10 0.1968 14.47 1972.11 0.1270 0.1826 51.85 54.27 40-44 0.2151 15 0.2206 13.85 1969.37 0.1470 0.1969 50.36 53.51 45-49 0.2420 20 0.2458 13.39 1966.15 0.1546 0.2078 49.26 52.12 Average Leveln Ages 20-34 : 15.15 0.1263 0.1672 53.50 55.01 44 BRAZIL 1980 CENSUS NORTHEAST URBAN Estimation of child mortality from proportions of children dead Model Life Table Family is: WEST PGE PROF'. A,E q(x) MORT., REF. **** EUIVALENT VALUES **Å* OROUPF DEAD xLEVEL DATE q(1) q 5) Sex of chil dren is 2OTH P(1),/P(2) = 0. 143 P (2) /Pi'3) 422 - 15-19 0 .. 1560 i 0.1682 10.45 1979.62 0.1675 0..2 42.17 47.47 20-24 0.1470 2 0.1570 13.22 1978.44 0.1256 0.1857 49. 04 51 . I0 25-29 0.1453 3 0.1478 14.36 1976.71 0.1102 0.1604 51 .5 52.62 30-34 0.1650 5 0.1692 13.96 1974.61 0.1153 0.1687 50.89 52.1i 35-39 0.1889 10 0.1969 13.46 1972.28 0.1223 0.1803 49.63 51.49 40-44 0.2151 15 0.2216 12.96 1969.69 0.1292 0.1916 48.41 50.3 45-49 0.2420 20 0.2473 12.67 1966.72 0.1335 0.1986 47. 66 0.43 Average Level, Ages 20-34 13.85 0.1169 0.1713 50. 61 31.73 45 Table A.2.C: Analysis of Brazil 1980 Census Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Northeast Rural Population BRAZIL 1980 CENSUS NORTHEAST RURAL h -,ption5 selected are as follows: Option Index Value Description Number Selected T'ype; Of AnMalYWS 1 2 Both Fert & Mort E! Badry Correction 2 1 No El Badry Corr. Treatment of N.S.CEB 3 1 Ignore N.S. women LiFe 7able Family 4 1 C-D Family - All -ex iat Birth 5 105.0 Census cr Survey Date 6 198.67 The basic data entered are as follows: 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-4: 1 FEMPOP 908978 651668 506088 435863 391348 351985 2675W 2 CEST 172129 370531 1511074 2007590 2347452 2Z93447 1724794 6 BIR-SUR 68757 167986 154610 118296 83099 40190 S79- 14 CHSURVT 148696 752047 1291826 1686149 1918176 189000 14737W, 46 CaluaIotion of P/F Ratios for ALL births AGE WOMEN CE2 ANNUAL AVERAGE FERTILITY CUMULk;TED SROUP BIRTHS FARITY RATES FERT LIT' SURVEY 15-19 908978 172129 68757 0.199 0.076 0.15B 1.177 20-24 651668 870531 167986 1.336 0.258 1.106 1.17 25-29 50603 1511074 154610 2.986 0.306 2.586 -1.111 0-34 435E63 2007590 113296 4.606 0.271 4.023 1.14i 5-39 391348 2347452 83099 5.998 0.212 5.215 11 40-44 Z51985 2393447 40190 6.800 0.114 5.977 1.11C 45-49 263949 1924794 3383 7.130 0.031 6.304 RepQrted and adjusted age-specific fertility rates for true age gr'-p Factors are : Column 2. no adjustment; 3, P (2)/,F(2) 4, P (3) /F (3); 5. Average of P(2)/F(2) and P(3)/F(3); 6, Average of P(2) /F(2), P(3)/F(3) and P 4) /(4) AGE GROUP f (i) f (i) f(i) f (i) f (i) Factor: 1.000 1.208 1.154 1.181 1.169 I5-19 0.0919 0.1110 0.1061 0.1085 0.1074 20-24 0.2713 0.3277 0.3132 0.3205 0.3171 27 27 0.3058 0.3694 0.3531 0.3612 0.3574 70-34 0.2662 0.3216 0.3074 0.3145 0.3111 75-79 0.2052 0.2478 0.2368 0.2423 0.2397 40-44 0.1035 0.1250 0.1194 0.1222 0.1209 45-49 0.0240 0.0290 0.0277 0.0284 0.0281 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.3395 7.6569 7.3137 7.4373 7.4085 47 BRAZIL 1980 CENSUS NORTHEAST RURAL Esimation of child mortality from proportions of childrn dead Made1 Life Table Family is: NORTH ASE PRcP. A2E q(x) MORT. REF. **** ECUIVLE I ALU"JES **** SRoup DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(!) q(5) () a(1C) e,of children is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.142 15-19 0.1361 1 0.1467 10.58 1979.68 0.1461 0.2472 42.:2 4.47 20-24 0.1361 2 0.1387 13.54 1978.49 0.1086 0.1804 49.62 2.29 25-29 0.1451 2 0.1398 14.51 1976.74 0.0979 0.1604 51.98 53.4 30-34 0.1601 5 0.1592 14.59 1974.63 0.971 0.158S 32-17 73-3? C.1829 10 0.1929 1.22 1972.26 0. 1010 0. 1661 51. . 2.1I 40-44 0.2103 15 C.2187 13.77 1969.65 0.1060 0.1756 50.17 5257 45-49 0.2342 20 0.2388 13.65 1966.75 0. 1073 170 49.89 Z2. Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 14.21 0.1011 :.1664 Ij iZ .1i y Model Life Table Family is: SOUTH AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** ECUIVALENT VALUEE t**** SROUP DEAD X LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) e(K e( 5ex of childr2n is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.142 ; P(2) /PC)( - 0.447 15-19 0.1361 1 0.1423 12.58 1979.69 0.1419 0.2330 47.66 20-24 0.1361 2 0.1445 15.65 1978.48 0.1123 0.1711 534.93 6.9 25-29 0.1451 3 0.1486 16.28 1976.65 0.1065 0.1592 56.47 5-7 30-34 0.1601 5 0.1644 16.01 1974.41 0.1089 0.1641 S.79 7 7.40 12? .1829 10 0.1909 15.28 1971.87 0.1157 0.1781 =Q8 25- a0-44 0.2103 15 0.2150 14.54 1969.07 0.1227 C.1925 2.31 . 4Z-49 0.2342 20 0.2364 14.15 1965.92 0.1265 0.2003 21.38 25.-i Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 15.98 0.10.92 0.1647 72 7. :6 Model Life Table Family is: EAST ASE PROP. ABE, q(x) MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT VALUES *** GROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) e(o) e(10) Eex cf children is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.142 ; P(2)/P(3) = 0.447 15-19 0.1361 1 0.1507 13.67 1979.67 0. 1500 0.201'2 49.2 53.41 20I-24 0.1361 2 0.1445 15.37 19783.42 )0.1230 0.1625 54.02 5.24 25-29 0.1451 3 0.1468 15.69 1976.54 0.1181 0.1555 54.8 EC 5. 5 3O-34 0.1601 5 0.1621 15.41 1974.25 0.1223 0.1616 54.12 Z5.29 35-39 0.1829 10 0.1889 14.79 1971.67 0.1319 0.1753 52.3 54 .62 40-44 0.2103 15 0.2138 14.11 1968.81 0.1427 0.1908 50.99 3.-88 45-49 0.2342 20 0.2359 13.75 1965.57 0.1486 0.1992 50.12 535. Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 15.49 0.1211 0.1598 54.31 55.28 48 BRAZIL 1980 CENSUS NORTHEAST RURAL Estimation of child rortality from proporticns of children dad Model Life Table Family is: WEST AGE FROP. AGE q (x M ORT. REF. **** EIVALENT VALUES **** SRUF' DEAD x LEVEL DA TE q(1) q (5) e (0) (1) Sex of children i's BOTH P(1) /P (2) 0.142 F(2) /P(3 0. 447 15 -19 0.1361 1 0.1498 11.61 1979.68 0. 1492 0 . 2235 45. 01 49. 05 20-24 0.1361 2 0.1445 13.89 1978.44 0.1163 0.1704 50.71 52.3 2E-29 p 1451 3 0 ..14651 14. 46 1976. 59 0,. 109C] 0 . 1 586 32, 07 3,2. 7 4 3-0-34 0.1601 5 0.1624 14.29 1974.35 0. 1111 0. 1619 51.163 52. 53 35-39 0.1829 10 0.1885 13.79 1971.86 0.1176 0.1726 50.47 51,91 40-44 0. 2103 15 0.2143 13. 24 1969.16 0. 1252 0. 1851 49.11 51. 23 45-49 0.2342 20 0.2367 13.05 1966.20 0.1280 0.1897 48.62 50.99 Average Level, Ages 20-34 14.21 0.1121 0.1635 51.49 52.43 Tabte A.3.A: Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey ,ata:ovt Fertitity and Child Mortatity by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEOPC Package: National Levet BRAZIL PNAD SURVEY 1984 NATIONAL n nx V e De-sc r i ption NumbEr SceIected ny Both Fert & Mort SEadr ;rtion 2 No El Badry Crr 1r atmen -f- N. 8. CEI 1 Ignore N. 8. womn Lfe m i-amiy 4 I C-D Family -· A1i 8e; Rtic: Birth1 3 15. rsuks or Bur',ey Date 84.76 b i dat.a enter,: are a fol ows: 115- 19cý 20--2 4 25-29 :30-34 FEMPCP 7483 159363 52-5613 4511986 37417 3 7 2 2 2EBT 907306 5131052 9481127 1244251 13 76 S !R-,8UR 37338 1026269 867414 59887 31 -1 14 CH8,RVT 844727 4758680 8772784 11-9328 12~8 1 50 BRAZIL PNAD SURVEY 1984 NATIONAL CmlcLlation co P/F Ratios -for ALL births n3E WOMEN CEB ANNUAL AVERAGE FERTILITY CUMiULATEU ':7 GAQ,P BIRTHS PARITY RATES FERTIL.1 SURVEY 15-19 6748227 907306 373398 0.124 0.055 0.116 - - 20-24 6159363 5131052 1026269 0.833 0.167 0.757 1 25-29 5255613 9481127 867414 1.eO4 0.165 1.113 30-34 4511986 1.2442551 590887 2.758 0131 2.750 1 15-39 3741752 13737736 301716 3.671 0.081 2.948 11E 40-44 3083815 13902867 111089 4.476 0.036 .114 A407 45-49 2672708 12341557 19560 4.992 7 -.201 Reported and adjusted age-specific fertility rateS for true age' group: Factors are . Column 2, no adjustment; 2, P(2)/F(2); 4, P(3)/F(3); 5, Average of P(2)/F(2) and P(7)/F 2); 6, Average cf P(2)/F(2) F,P(2)/F ..n P 4 AGE GROUP + Qi f (i) f()P i i Factor: 1.000 1.100 1.118 1.109 1 1 1 15-19 0.0681 0.0749 0.0761 C.0755 C.0769 20-24 0.1717 0.1889 0.1920 0.1905 0.1941 25-29 0.1625 0.1788 0.1818 0.1803 0.1838 30-34 0.12&0 0.1386 0.1409 0.1397 C.1425 25-39 0.0713 0.0839 0.0853 0.0846 0.0862 40-44 0.0320 0.0352 0.0358 0.0355 C).061 45-49 0. 0054 0. 0060 0. 0061 0. 0060 0. 0061 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.2097 3.5310 3.5896 3.5603 3.6292 53. BRAZIL PNAD SURVEY 1984 NATIONAL Estimatiwn of child mortality -f-rm pr-oportions of children dead Modal LiE Table Fa_mily i: N0,RTH AE PR=. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EOUIVALENT V ALUE3 *** GROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q(1) q:) e;o) ( - e of children is 2OTH P(1) /PC2) = 0.161 ; PF('P3) = Q.162 15-19 00O688 1 O.C710 17.14 1983.69 0. 0706- 1108 `!-7 . 20-24 0.0726 2 0.0727 18.22 1982. 47 0.0603 025 61.j : W7'~ 25-29 0.0747 3 0.0715 18.90 1980.72 0.0540 C.5814 62227 59,28 30-34 O.C842 5 C.0835 18.79 1978.62 .0550 CuCE32 32;37 y9.=~ 35-39 Q.1009 10 C,1065 18.25 1976.28 C)0.60 C) 40-44 0,1171 1 l C. 1218 17.91 1973. 7C0 0. 06-32 0.j976 W.35 57. 453-49 0.1302 20 0.1323 L7.94 1970.83 0.0629 (h.0971 60.46 97.9L Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 18.64 0.0564 0..0857 2.21 5.9 Made! Life Table Family> i:s; SOUTH AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** ECUIýALENT VAL1E51 SROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q(!) qk5? æ(Q - W1W Sw of children is SOTH P(1)/2) = 0.161 ; P /P3= 2 2 15-19 0.0688 1 0.0687 20.36 1983.70 0. 0685 -u-133 - -. 4 63 10 20-24 0.0726 2 0.0759 20.60 1982.46 C.C662 C),?47 7.0 .- CIl 29-29 0.0747 3 0.0761 20.92 1980.62 0.062 799 67.73 6L.%: 30-34 0.0842 5 0.0863 20.50 1978.39 0.0671 0.E6i 66,7-.67.7 35-39 0.1009 10 0.1054 19.60 1975.89 0.0758 0.1003 64.55 62.04 40-44 0.1171 15 C.1197 19.00 1973.13 0.0815 0.1298 62.0 61.22 45-49 0.1302 20 0.1314 18.74 1970.00 0.(841 C,1147 62,6n Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 20.67 0.0655 C.)E36 57.1= ý3.51 Mcodel Life Table Family is: EAST AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT VALUES **** GROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(1) q5) ) e(10) Sex of children is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.161 ; P(2)/P(3) 15-19 0.0688 1 0.0737 18.86 1983.68 0.07,3 0.0912 62.46 539.13 20-24 0.0726 2 0.0762 19.27 1982.40 0.0680 0.0836 63.45 59.59 25-29 0.0747 3 0.0753 19.53 1980.51 0.0647 0.0738 64.08 59.88 30-34 0.0842 5 0.0851 19.20 1978.24 0.0688 0.0848 63.-, 59.52 33-39 0.1009 10 0.1042 18.55 1975.69 0.0774 0.0971 69172 28,78 40-44 0.1171 15 0.1190 18.08 1972,87 0.0836 0.1Q>I 60.i9 7A.25 45-49 0. 130,2 20 0. 1312 17.91 1969.65 0.0860 0. 1094 6.18 13 l:6 Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 19.33 0.0672 0.0.824 63.6- 5i = 66 52 BRAZIL PNAD SURVEY 1984 NATIONAL Estimation f child mortality frcm prcprti of chiicrer dead Moal Life Tabl.e Famil.y is: WEST ASE PRO. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EDUIVALENT VALü,8 GROUP DEAD X LEVEL DA TE qH( ) q=(5 e1 WC0 E f children is BOTH PCI/P2= - V.161 ; P 3 2) .'P - 15-19 0.0688 1 0. 0728 17.52 1983.69 0.0724 0. 1004 3 4 [ - 20-24 9.0726 2 0. 0760 18.24 1982. 42 .0 0644 0. 0879 ä1.21 25-29 0.0-747 3 0.0749 18.67 19E0.56 0.0598 0. 0806 62.27 30-34 0.0842 5 0. 0852 18.42 1978.34 0.0625 C. 0848 i 7 B 35-39 0.1009 10 0.1040 17.83 1975.88 0.0689 0 . 094'- 40-44 0. 1171 15 0. 1193 17.42 1773. 22 0.0736 0. 1023 59 , 45-49 0.1302 20 0.1316 17.35 1970.28 0.0744 0.1035 59. Average LeveV, Ages 20-34 18,45 0. 0622 0. 0644 1. 53» Table A.3.B: Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and ChiLd Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Packagø: Urban Population BRAZIL PNAD 1984 SURVEY NATIONAL URBAN -p i dndex Val- ie De-3rr i pti Numnber Selectd yp-Anys 2 Both Fe-rt & or ErBdry Corrcti on 2 1 No El Badry C,.r- Tr atment of N. 8. CEB 3 1 Ignore N.,w ie Taie Family 4 1 C-D Family -,All Se__tiea it 5 105.0) ensus or BuLrvey Date 6 i 84. 76 Th baSic data entered are as fcllows: 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 5-- I FMPCP 4941762 473263r 4150701 35267390 21236 2 CEBT 614548 3505742 6754743 8802151 2 6 BIR-SUR 259570 706267 630391 408922 131690 63 14 CHEURVT 578567 3291276 6325040 8f54462 48843436. /8 54 BRAZIL PNAD 1984 SURVEY NATIONAL URBAN IGH åjMEN CEB ANNUAL AVERAGE FERT11IT 'GM' SCM BlR'.TH8 3 PARITY RATES FERT71* f-19 4941762 614'48 259570 0. 124 0. 053 0.1'2 110, .1-2 ...63 3 ,.0574'{2 70 26 0 d/.O/.74 0 La.14 'T/.29 i -0 . 15-9 159701 6754743 630391 1. 627 0.=.2 1.47 SI-, 10-4 X7759 3802151 408922 2.488 0.116 2,179 6lå s 45-49 2023981 139112 9903 4.515 0.005 2.814 i1 o- Muprted and adjiustod age-speci f ic +fertili ity ratoem -for tr---e suae gr,:3.pfD- FactDrs are : Cclumn 2, no adjustment; 3,P(2),/I-(2)., 4 , P (3)/YF (3) ; 5, Average cif PM(2) F(2) -and P (- 'F 3) 6, Average 3f P (2) /F (2) ,3.(3 /~(- nc.: PF'" -V..E , 3RCL,jP fcfi) f M (+) f i(i i(1 Fýacto,r: 1.000 1.075 1.105 1.090 1.114 15-19 , 0.0644 0.0692 0.0712 C.0702 C.0718 20-24 0. 1538 0. 1653 0 .1699 0 .1676 0 .1714 25-29 0.1492 0.1604 0.1649 0.1627 0.1663 30-34 0.1.101 0.1184 0.1217 0.1200 Ca,1227 35-39 0.0594 0.0639 0.0656 C.0648 0.0662 40-44 0.0234 0.0251 0.0258 C.0255 C.0261 45-49 0.0036 0.0039 0.0040 Ca.0039 3. jok) MCTAL FERTILITY 2.8201 V.0314 3.1154 3.0734 3-1426 55 BRAZIL PNAD 1984 SURVEY NATIONAL URBAN Estimation of child mortality from proportions c--f children dead Modej Life Table Family is: NOPTH P8E PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. RE E **** EDUIVALENT VALUES ***- GROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q'1) q(5) .(0) W1 n children i s BOTH P (1) /P (2) = 0. 163 ; P(2) /P (7. = c - 455 15-19 0, 055 i 0 0590 1 .39 1983. 4 0,- 37 0. 0897 ét'28 12,5 20-24 0.0612 2 0.0611 19.18 1982. 44 0. 0515 D.0770 3.56 5 2Z-29 0.063å 3 0.0611 19..6 1980.73 0.0470 W0.092 ha.83 .: T 30-4 0.07¯36 5 0.3734 19.43 1978.7) 0.0493 0..0731 tA9 n 3Z-39 0 . 0906 1) 0. 0961 13.79 197». Z2 C, C 5 0833 62, ØE 9 40-44 .1099 15 u0.15,0 18.24 19731 0.0601 0.0922 61,20 5s 7 Awsæraga Level , Ages 20-34 19.43 0. Oa192 0. 0731 64. 20 6 Model Life Tabl- 9amily is- SOUTH AEE PROP. AGE q() MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT VALUES .t* BROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q!) q(5) 2 (k Se. o+ children is DOTH P(1) /P(2) = 0. 169 ; P(2) /P(3) = C. '5' 15-19 0.0585 1 0.0570 21.58 1983.65 0.0568 0.0703 69. 4W31- P, 20-24 0.0612 2 0.0638 21.58 1982.43 0.0569h 0704 69.42 a 23-29 0.063b 3 0.0650 i1.75 1980.63 0 .0ý5 5 3 ih.0680 69.34 65, i sO-34 0.07-6 0 0758 21. 21 1978.47 0 . 0604 0. 0736 18.51 6 1 35-39 0.0906 10 c.0950 20.21 1976.05 C.o7o0 0.0907 66.24 i1 Z0-44 0.1099 15 0.1129 19.38 1973.36 0.0779 0. 1038 64.01 el.1 4Z-49 0.1231 20 0.1247 19.04 1970.25 0. 811 0.1 92 , Average Level, &ges 20-34 : 21.51 0.0575 C.,71 025 I,- Mocl Life Table Family is: EAST AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EOUIVALENT VALUES **** GROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) 3(0) e(10) Sex of children is BOTH P(1)/P2) = 0.168 ; P(2) /P(3) = 0.455 15-19 0.0585 1 0.0616 19.79 1983.63 0.0613 0.0739 64.72 60.12S 20-24 0.0612 2 0.0642 20.03 1982.36 0.0583 0 0696 65.30 60.4« 25-29 0.0636 3 0.0643 20.19 1980.53 0.0563 Q.0670 65.68 60.66 30-34 0.0736 5 0.0747 19.77 1978.33 0.0616 0.0744 64.6 35-39 0.0906 10 0.0939 19.05 1975.86 0.0708 0.0876 62.92 59 4-' 0 1S S.0 1840) 1 7 10~ 0,1_ -0,1 - 44 C). iC099 , 15 C). 1V122 18 40 1 9 . 1 . 79 0 . 1. 42-49 0.1231 20 0.1245 18.2 1969.90 0.0820 0.1038 60.aS 5=- Pvurage Leve1, Ages 20-34 20.00 0. 0587 0.(i7,2 65.2 i 0. W 56 BRAZIL PNAD 1984 SURVEY NATIONAL URBAN Entimation af zhild mortality FrDm prcpr-.ins -o--f children de Modal Life Ta.3ble2 F-ils1: WEST AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EïIVALENT LEVEL DATE q(!) M(K) .. .:ildren is B.OTH P(1)/F(2) = 0.168 ; F2.)/P(3) 45 15-19 0.0585 i 0.0606 18.62 1983.64 0.0603 0.081 =14 8 20-24 0.0612 2 0.0640 19.11 1982.38 0. 0Z51 0.0733 634 23-29 0.0636 3 0.0640 19.41 1980.57 0.0521 0.0685 *.07 30-31 0.0736 5 0.0748 19.04 1978.42 0.0558 0. 0745 vi.-h 3--39 0.0906 L0 0,0938 18.38 1976.04 0.0629 0,0Z 40-44 0.1099 15 0.1125 17.74 1973.44 0.0699 0.05 45---49 0.1231 20 0.1250 17.65 1979.51 0.0710 0.0982 59= 3:.X: Average Level, Ages 20-34 19.19 0.0543 .0721 63.52 58 57 Tabte A.3.C: Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data an Fertility and Child MortaLity by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Rural Population BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY NATIONAL RURAL n,4 I Rt S 4 7 5- 20-24 2-9 0 4 -39 - EMPOP 18306465 1426-72 7 11C.4 9 12 9?74217 8732 32 ~' 4 -~ 2'ET 292758 625310 2726384 340400 4412139 43.11 . .2 6 BIR-SUR t 13828 3200 237023 181965 2 _ 14 CHSURVT 26 3-t6 1467404 2447744 3240866 37&135 3782272 58 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY NATIONAL RURAL Calcolwtion P/F RatiL-s r ALL birtha AGE WOMEN CEB ANNUAL AVERAGE FERT I LIT CU__MULATED GRDUP BIRTHS FARITY RATES FERTILIT,' SURVEY 15-19 1806465 292758 113828 0.162 0.063 Q.!TB 1,221 20-24 1426727 1625310 320002 1.139 0.224 0.971 1.177 25-29 1104912 2726384 237023 2.468 0.215 2.086 1 30-34 974217 3640400 181965 3.737 0.187 3.088 35-39 874362 4412109 120026 5.046 O.L7 1-871 40-44 732579 4361101 48433 5.953 0.066 4.347 45-49 648727 4202445 9657 6.478 0.015 4.517 1 40, Reported and adjusted age-specific fertility rates for true age groul: Factors are : Collumn 2, no adjustment; 3, P(2)/F(2); 4, P (3) / F (7) 5, Average of P(2)/F(2) and P(7)./F3) 6, Average of P(2)/F(2), P(I:) / F ,nd '4/ G E GRO.UP f (i) f(i) f(i) f(i) f (i) Factor: 1.000 1.173 1.13 1.178 1 189 15-19 0.0784 0.0919 0.0927 0.0923 0.0971 20-24 0.2318 0.2719 0.2742 0.2730 0.2755 25-29 0.2125 0.2493 0.2514 0.2503 0.252f 30-34 0.1825 0.2141 0.2159 0.2150 0.2170 35-39 0.1315 0.1542 0.1555 0.1549 0.1567 40-44 0.0591 0.0693 0.0699 0.0696 0*0703 45-49 0.0112 0.0131 0.0132 0.0132 0.013" TOTAL FERTILITY 4.5344 5.3188 5.2648 5.3418 5.3907 59 BRAZIL 1964 PNAD SURVEY NATIONAL RURAL Estinati..n -+ child mortality from proportions of children dead Medel Lifz T;Rble Family is: NORTIH A8E PROF. ABE q e) MORT. REF. **** -LVAJLENT NALJEE - GROUF DEAD X LEVEL DATE g(1) q() a vW 8E =i ch ildren is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = C-142 ; . ' = 1-19 009v2 1 0.0981 14.53 1983.8) 0.0977 CK.160 52.C3 20-21. 0.0972 2 0 .0986 16. 26 1982. 58 C. 0795 0 . 10t,7 56 C -28 *1-: 25-29 =122 32 0.0977 17.08 1980.77 .72 0.1118 58132, =W 30-34 0.1098 1 0.1083 17.31 1978.59 0.0690 Cm ' 58-89 m - -3-39 0,1228 1) o.1286 17.14 1976.14 0.0707 0.109 58.- 46 82 4c-44 0. 1326 1' 0.1369 17.21 1973.47 0.0700 sk 1096 58,65 of-9 0.1457 20 0a1477 17.29 1970.56 0.0692 0. 8 5.4 1 Arage Lovol , ges 20-34 : 16.89 0.0732 0-1154 57 -58 Model Lif aý Table F-amily is: SOUTH )GE PF. AGE q 1x MORT. REF. :*** EgUIVALENT VAL2ES 2EP DEAD LEVEL DATE q(1) qW) evf e610 mf children is BOTH F(1)/P(2) = 0. 142 ; =(2)/F(3) 15-19 0.0902 1 0.0952 17.59 1993.81 0.0950 0.1356 59.53 5 2-4 0.0972 2 0.1027 18.59 1982.57 0.0856 0.1174 62.13 19-0 25-29 0.1022 3 Co 1040 18.99 1980.67 0.0816 0.1100 63. 6 30-34 0.1098 5 C. 1120 18.90 1978.35 0.0826 0.1119 62.31 1 35--39 C 1223 D0 0.1275 18.42 1975.73 0.0873 0.1207 157 ag-44 01326 15 0.1348 18.28 1972.87 0.0886 0.111 61 1- =49 C.1457 20 0,1454 19 . 07 1959.71 0.0907 0.1271 60.63 ¯v Erage Level, Ages 20-34 18.83 0.0833 0.11 2- t Mrodel Life Table Family is: EAST AGE FROP. AE q(x) MORT. REF. **** ECUIVALENT VALUES * GROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(1) q15) e(0) e(10) e;- cf children is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0. 142 ; P(2)/F'(3) = 0.42 15-19 0.0902 1 0.1005 16.91 1983.79 0. 1000 0. 1295 57.75 I6.94 20-24 0.0972 2 0.1028 17.67 1982.51 0.08s93 0.1143 59.59 57.79 25-29 0. 1022 3 0.1029 17.96 1980.56 0.0852 0.1084 6CK:70 7.. 1 30-34 0.1098 5 0.1106 17.88 1978.19 0.0865 0.1102 6C> U,.0) 13-39 0.1228 10 0.1263 17.52 1975.52 0.0915 0.1174 59.22 5762 -4 . 1326 15 0.1341 17.41 197,",9 0.0930 u. 1195 58.¯6 5-.50 ju-49 . -.1457 20 0.1462 17.28 1969.35 0.0948 0.1221 58.65 57.35 AverRge Level, Ages 20-34 17.84 0 .0870 0.101 10 59. 99 5'. 60 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY NATIONAL RURAL EFtimation of child morttlity ifron proportions Q+ children dead ,odel Life Table Family is: WEST AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EDIUIVALENT 'WAL.2E% 4-* CROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q 1) q (5) e(o- e_(!:) Sex of children is BOTH P (1)//P (2) = C. 142 F'(2)/P(3) 15-19 0.0902 1 0.1001 15.20 1983.79 0.0997 0.1436 57,86 53.0 20-24 0.0972 2 0.1029 16.45 1982.53 0.0847 0.1199 56.85 55.17 25-29 0.1022 3 0.1023 16.94 1980.61 0.0789 0.1106 58.05 E7.9 30-34 0.1098 5 0.1106 16.97 1978.29 0.0786 0.1102 58.11 is Q 35-79 0.1228 10 0.1259 16.72 1975.72 0.0816 0.1149 57.50 5F5' 40-44 0.1326 15 0.1342 16.70 1972.97 0.0813 0.1152 57.a6 E5.K 45-49 0.1457 20 0. 1464 16.69 1970.02 0.0819 0.1154 57. 4 5a 59 Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 16.79 0.0808 0. 1136 57 67 55.7" 61 Table A.4.A: Analysis of BraziL 1984 PRAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child MortaLity by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass ChiLd SurvivaL Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Northeast Region BRAZIL 1984.5 PNAD SURVEY NORTHEAST se optiojns selrecte.-d are as follows: cpticn Inde- aiue De cription Number Eelected Typo o Analysis 1 2 Both Fert & Mort En BaAW Correction 2 1 No El Badry Corr. Treatment of N.S.CEB 3 1 Ig'Iore N.S. W.omQn Life Tatle Family 4 1 C-D Family -All Sef Ratio at Birth 5 105.0 CaSUS Or SLrvey Date 6 1984.76 The basiL dta entered are az follows: 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 15- 1 FEMPOP 2142775 1706024 1304359 1140981 973992 823244 696P 2 CEBT 349150 1764871 w043420 4094623 4731897 4828051 17'' 6 BIR-SUR 140094 355776 282166 215255 129724 5577 . 14 CHSURYT 71UC96 1554760 2678951 350320 4009181 7 91092 7'C 62 BRAZIL 1984.5 PNAD SURVEY NORTHEAST Calcultion f P/F Ratios for ALL births A.,E W,OMEN CE3 ANNUAL AVERAGE FE RTIL:TY C Y MULA TE ERDUP BIRTHS PARITY RATES FERTILITY SURVEY 15-19 2142775 349150 140094 0.163 0.065 - 0. 137 1 20-2n 1706024 1764871 355776 1.034 0.209 - 20.928 25-29 130432; 3043420 282166 2.333 0.216 -K 2.022 12 30-34 1140981 4094623 215255 3.589 0.189 3.039 35-3v 973992 4731897 129724 4.858 0.133 -o .817 1 40-44 823244 4828051 52577 5. 865 0.064 - 4. 270 173 45-49 696190 4347837 10151 6.245 0.015 -S 4.436 Reported and adjusted age-specific fertility rates for trukL age gr?.p: -actors ar-: Column 2, no adjustment; 3, P(2)/F(2); 4, P(3)/F(3); 5, Average of P(2)/F(2) and P2) 6, Average of P(2)/F(2) , P(31/VM u.nd P ' A_E _R U i f (i a m f i) ()f ' Factnr: 1.000 1.115 1.154 1.134 1.150 15-19 0.0800 . 0.0891 -3 0. 0923 0. 0907 0. 0919 20-24 0.21W3 0.2412- 0.2496 0.2454 0.2489 25-29 0.2150 0.2397 - 0.2481 0.2439 0.247: 30-34 0.1839T 0.2050 0.2122 0.2086 0.2114 35-39 0.123 0.1419- 0.1468 0.1443 0.1463 40-44 0.0571 0.0637 - 0.0659 0.0648 00657 45-49 0.0109 0.0122 - 0.0126 0.>124 0.126 TCTAL FERTILITY 4.4527 4.9634 5.1377 5.0506 5.1200 63 BRAZIL 1984.5 PNAD SURVEY NORTHEAST Estimation of child mortality fom proportions of c.-iidren dead Made! Life Table Family is: NOF:TH ABE PROP. ABE q (x) MORT. REF. **** EQUIYALENT 2LU8 ÷ GROUP DEAD X LEVEL DATE q(1) q=5 e(01 elit0 Sexmc children is BOTH P1) /P (2= 0.158 ; P2/PV) -= -1.443 15-19 0. 1033 1 0. 1061 13.t0 1983., 68 0. 1057 0. 1751 55. 24 50 20-24 0.1191 2 0.1201 14.77 1982.50 0.0951 01352 52-61 . ~57 25-29 0. 1198 3 0. 1157 15.94 1980.81 0.0828 0. 1325 55099 5. V 30-34 0.1378 5 0.130 15.67 1978.79 0.0855 . 1376 34.24 6å 3_-39 0.1527 10 0. 1625 15. 55 1976.32 0 0868 0.1400 54.53 4.0 40-44 0.1734 15 0.1818 15.25 1974.01 0.0900 0,1457 53. 80 4.12 45-49 0. 181 20 0C 1932 15.40 1971.14 0. 0834 0. 1 428 54. :. - 54. 1i AverRge Level, Agas 20-34 : 15.46 0. 0878 0. 1417 54.21 E4 W Mode! Life Table Family is: SOUTH 8E PROF. ABE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALE,NT ,LUE8 * GROUP DEAD X LEVEL DATE q(1) q5 e(O) a=` Sex' of children is BOTH P(1)/F(2) = 0.158 ; P 2/() 441 15-19 0. 1033 1 0.1027 16.74 1983.69 0.1024 0. 1508 5.52 58-=~ 20-24 0.1191 2 0.1254 16.99 1982.49 0. 1002 0. 1462 1 1 u, ý 25-29 0.1198 3 0.1230 17.86 1980.72 0.0926 0.1308 60.17 59,67 30-34 0.1378 5 0.1424 17.23 1978.57 0.0981 0.1420 58.å 3. 9 35-39 0. 1527 10 0. 1604 16.75 1976.16 0.1023 0. 1506 57.54 u81 40-44 0.1734 15 0.17823 16.20 1973.47 0. 1073 0.1607 56.13 1.- 45-49 0. 1881 20 0. 1909 15. 07 1970.234 0. 1085 0. 1631 55.92 17,1- Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 17.36 0.0970 0.1397 58.8 59-.¯ Model Life Table Family is: EAST ABE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT VALIE' ** GROUP DEAD X LEVEL DATE q(1) q5) e(0) 900Y Sex of children is BOTH P (1) /P (2) = 0. 158 ; F(2)/P(3) = 0.447 15-19 0.103 1 0. 1104 16.24 1983.67 0. 1098 0.1437 56 13 56. 20 20-24 0.1191 2 0.1257 16.38 1982.43 0.1078 0.1407 56. 47 56,6 25-29 0. 1198 3 0.1215 16.97 1980.61 0.0991 0. 1283 57. 91 17.11 30-34 0. 1378 5 0. 1402 16.43 197E.43 0. 1070 0.1397 56.59 56. 21 35-39 0.1527 10 0.1586 16.07 1975.97 0.1123 0.1472 55.72 56.01 40-44 0.1734 15 0.1771 15.58 1973.21 0. 1198 0.1578 54, 73 u3.12 9 C 0.1881 20 0.1904 15.49 1970.00 0.1212 0.1599 54.31 55.¯.1 Average Level, Ages 20-34 16.59 0.1046 0.1362 56.99 56. 51 64 BRAZIL 1984.5 PNAD SURVEY NORTHEAST Estimation :f child mortality from proportioris of childr2n dead Model Life Table Fwmily is: WEST QGE PRCP. GE q (x) MORT. REF. EQUIVALE-NT VALLES +'*N 3ROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q (11 q (5) e(0) Ex of children is BOTH F'(1)/P(2) = 0.158 ;(2)/P(3) 15-19 0.1033 1 0.1089 14.50 1983.67 0.1085 0. 1577 52.1B 72-7 20-24 0.1191 2 0.1256 15.01 1982.45 0.1020 0.1472 53.40 3 >44 25-29 0.1198 3 0.1209 15.36 1980.66 0.0917 0. 1309 55.43 4. 51 50-74 0.1378 5 0.1405 15.38 1978.52 0.0975 0.1401 54.29 ZZ-39 0.1527 10 0.15815 0.1005 0N1448 53.70 T&SC 40-44 0.1734 15 0.1778 14.72 1973.54 0.1056 0.1531 52.71 57,v7 45-49 0.1381 20 0.1914 14.78 1970.60 0.1049 0.1520 52.84 l.1- Average Level, Ages 20-34 15.42 0.0971 0.1394 54.17 17.97 65~ Table A.4.B: Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEOPC Package: Northeast Urban Population BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY NORTHEAST URBAN The optiuns .eljcted are as follows: ioI ndex Vlue DescriptiGn Number 5el ectEd Typ oAnalysis 1 2 Both Fert ?& Mor t EIl Bdry Corrction 2 1 No El Badry Corr. Treatment of N. 8. EEB 1 Ignore N.S. voimen Li-e Teable Family 4 1 C-D Family - Al Sex, R.atio at irth 5 105. CenS or Survey Date 6 1984.76 The basic data entered are as foll ows: 15-19 20-24 25--29 0-34 339 4044 1 FEMPOP 1259716 1053.079 801799 693257 5 679 4 2 CEBT 178129 908303 1611957 2168427 238-757 25-9733 72 6 BIR-SLR 75306 182592 153163 111276 52031 !-,~~ 14 EHSURVT 16219 815867 1444242 1894533 22 8 8 66 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY NORTHEAST URBAN Calculation of FP/ Ratios for ALL births AGE WOMEN CEB AiNNUAL AVERAGE FERTILITY Cl TFD C' GROUP BIRTHS FARITY RATES FERTILIT( SURVEY 15-19 1259716 178129 75306 0.141 0.060 0.121 20-24 1053079 908303 1B2592 O.863 0. 173 C.770 25-29 801799 1611957 153163 2.010 0.191 1,742 10-34 693257 2168427 111276 3. 128 0.161 2.632 3-39 567090 2380757 52081 4.198 0W092 -21- 40-44 426076 2589533 22453 5.327 0.046 337 1 45-49 401990 2288333 3769 5.693 0.009 3.630 ceparted and adjusted age-specific fertility rates for true age p Factors are : Column 2, no adjustment; 3, P(2)/F(2); 4, P(3) /F (3); 5, Average of F(2)/F(2) and P(3)/F 6, Average of P(2)/F(2), P(3)/F (3) aid ' / 'l AGE i3ROUP f (i) f(i) f(i) 4(i) f(i) Factor: 1.000 1.092 1.154 1.123 1 145 15-19 0.0726 0.0793 0.0838 0.0815 0M0831 20-24 0.1803 0.1970 0.2081 0.2025 0. 2064 25-29 0.197 0.2073 0.2190 0.2131 0.2172 30-34 0.1542 0.1684 0.1779 0.1732 0. 1765 35-39 0.0872 0.0952 0.1006 0.0979 0.0998 40-44 0.0412 0.0450 0.0476 0.0463 0.0472 45-49 0.0070 0.0076 0.0080 0.O078 0.oos TOTAL FERTILITY 3.6606 3.9985 4.2247 4.1116 4.1909 67 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY NORTHEAST URBAN Estimation of child mortality fromfpror-tions of children dead Modai Life Table Family is: NORTH AGE PROP. AGE q x) MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT 1ALUE 7-** GROUP DEAD X LEVEL DATE q 1 q qT) W) W 10' Est of children is BOTH P(1) 0P(2 = 0.164 ; PDF 47 15-W9 0.0837 1 0.0834 15.Q1 1983.61 0.0831 C"1331 15.42 53.211 20-24 0.1018 2 0.1027 15.97 1982.47 0.0825 0.1321 25.f5 S5.7 25-29 0.1040 7 0.1013 16.35 1980.85 0.0736 0.1160 5774 36.Tc 30-14 0.1213 5 0.1278 16.22 1975.94 0.0799 0.1274 56.19'? 35-39 0.149 10 C1601 15.66 1976.79 0.0857 C1379 54.79 *4,14 40-44 0.1742 15 0.1346 15.15 1974.36 0.0912 0.1479 53.51 f4.2 45-q9 ).i911 20 0.1980 15.21 1971.52 0.0904 0.1464 57.70 54.77 Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 16.35 0.0786 0.1251 56.49 55.0__ Model Life Table Family is: SOUTH AGE FROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. +* EQUIVALENT VALUEE; +++ GROUP DEAD X LEVEL DATE q (1) q (5) e (0) eclo) Sex of children is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = C.164 ;P(2)/PC) = 0-429 15-19 0.0837 1 0.0806 19.12 1983.62 0.0804 0.1073 63.58 01.38 20-24 0.1018 2 0.1072 18.29 1982.45 0.0886 0.1230 61.24 6024 25-29 0.1040 3 0. 1076 18.78 1980.77 o. 0838 0. 11 A 2.50 6e. M) 30- 4 0.1263 5 0.1315 17.84 1978.74 0.0928 0.1"12 60.12 4 33-39 0.1;89 10 0.1577 16.89 1976.45 0.1011 0.1481 57.S7 074 40-44 0.1743 15 0.1806 16.09 1973.86 0.108 0.1627 55.97 57,17 45-49 0.1911 20 0.1952 15.88 1970.76 0.1102 0.1t67 f5.47 37.7 Ayerage Level, Ages 20-34 : 18.30 0.0885 0.1228 61.S L. 2 Model Life Table Family is: EAST AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. E*** EQUIVALENT VALUES +* GROUP DEAD '. LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) e(0) e(1) Sex of children is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.164 ; P(2)/P(3) -= C.42P 15-19 - 0.0837 1 0.0875 17.83 1983.60 0.0871 0.1110 59.98 57.Q7 20-24 0.1018 2 0.1075 17.40 1982.40 0.0931 0.1197 58.94 57 49 25-29 0.1040 3 0.1061 17.79 1980.67 0.0876 0.1118 59.89 57.97 O0-34 0.1263 5 0.1293 16.95 1978.60 0.0994 0.1288 57.85 5&.9 35-19 0.1489 10 0.1556 16.20 1976.28 0.1104 0.1445 56.03 6.16 . 40-44 0.1743 15 0.177Z 15.49 1973.62,0.1211 0.1597 54.73 E5.18 45-49 0.1911 20 0.1947 15.32 1970.42 0.1237 0. 165 53.91 55.19 A-erage Level, Ages 20-34 17. 38 0.0974 0.1201 58.89 57.47 68 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY NORTHEAST URBAN Estimetion of child mrtality from proportions of children dead Model Li Fe Table Family is: WEST AGE OROP. C- q(M) IORT. REF. **** EQUI'JALENT GROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q (1) q(3) p Sex of children is BOTH P (1 /P (2) 0.1 0''2/- 15-19 0.0837 i 0.0859 16.38 1983.61 0.0855 k1211 56069 20-24 001018 2 0.1074 16.15 1982.41 0.0882 0.1253 56,1 25-29 0.1040 13 0.1057 16.74 1980.71 0.0812 C.1143 57.57 33m-t6 30-34 0.1263 5 0 1297 15.94 1978.68 0. 0907 0. 1297 5 62 34 35-39 0. 148c 10 0.1558 15.27 1976.4 0.0989 0.=123 54.01 51 40-44 0.1743 15 0. 1803 14.62 1973.92 0. 1070 0 1553 5¯. .. 1 45-49 0.1911 20 0.1961 14.59 1970.98 0.1073 0.1558 52 I? S Average Level, Ages 20-34 16.28 0.0867 0. 123, :4 5i.-7 69 TabLe A.4.C: Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and ChiLd MortaLity by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass ChiLd Survival Technique, Using the AFENOPC Package: Northeast Rural Population BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY NORTHEAST RURAL c_ options selected are as follows: op ti On I nd ex V alue Descr ipt ion Number Selected Type of Analysis 1 2 Both Fert & Mort E adry Correction 2 1 No El Badry Corr. Treatmnt -of N.S.CEB 3 1 Ignore N.S. women Life Table Family 4 1 C-D Family - All 7Ea Ratio at Birth 5 105.0 CenIsus or Survey Date 6 1984.76 The basic data entered are as follows: 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 i FEMPOP 883059 652945 502560 447724 406902 337116 25 2 CEBT 171021 856568 1431463 1926196 2351N4 227ST1E 017 6 BIR-SUR 64788 173184 129003 103979 77643 C124 1 CHSURVT 149877 738893 1234709 1635787 1983031 12E28I !7F 70 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY NORTHEAST RURAL AGE WOMEN CEB il,NNlL AVERAGE FERTILITY CUMULA TED 3ROUP BIRTHS FARITY FATES PERTILIVY S URVEY 15-19 8s3c59 171021 64788 0. 194 0.073 .149 20-2 4 6329^3 856568 173184 1312 W262 1 ,5 25-29 502560 1431463 129003 2. 848 0. 257 2467 30-34 447724 1926196 103979 4.302 0,232 6=3 35-39 406902 2351140 77643 5.778 O2 4.744 40--44 33716, 223G518 30124 6639 0.089 5382z 45-49 294200 2059504 6382 7.000 0.022 5.622 1 iA Reported ard udjusted age-specific fartility r-ate.s fDr tru-Eý ag- grup Factor-s re: Column 2, no adjustnent; 37, P, (2) /F ('2) ; 4, P (3) /F (3) ;, 5, Average of P(2)/F(2) and FW(3>V(3); 6, Average o-f P2)/F,2) , F(3) /F.3) .nd P F 4 G OLE R UP { () f (I) + (f + ( I Factor: 1.000 1.146 1.154 1. 150 156 15-19 0.0909 0.1041 0.1049 C.1045 C.1051 20-24 0.2745 0.3145 0.3169 C.3157 Cu3173 25-29 0.2553 0.2925 0.2947 0.2976 0.2951 30-34 0.2288 0.2622 0.2642 C.2632 0.2645 35-39 0.1835 0.2102 0.2118 0.2110 0.2121 40-44 0.0799 0.0916 0.0923 cu0919 0.0924 45-49 0.0164 0.0188 0.0190 0.0189 0.019) TO7AL FERTILITY 5.6469 6.4695 6.5188 6.4942 6.5271 71 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY NORTHEAST RURAL Estimation of child mortality -F,rom proportions f children d2ad Mod2l Qife Table Family is: NORTH AGE FROP. ASE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT VALUEF ** GROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q(1) q5) e(O? s(10 ofcicrenr is BOTH P(1)/P2) -= 0.148 ;.2ý2w'/P(: =- 15-19 0 .1236 i 0.1325 11 .62 1983. ,77 C . 19 0 . 2R 41 20-24 0.1374 2 0.1389 13.52 1982.55 C. 1087 W.1807 49= E, 25-29 0.1374 3 0.1316 14.99 1980.76 0.0927 0.1507 til5 54 0 30-34 0.1508 5 0.1491 15.10 1978.61 0.0916 C.1486 5342 4 35-39 .1566 10 01643 15.47 1976. 19 C0877 0. 141 54. 3- 74 50-44 0.1723 15 0.1783 15.40 1973.56 0.0884 0.1429 54.1b j4 L! 45-49 1848 20 W3. 1877 15. 63 1970.66 0.0861 .13 54.72 '4 9C Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 14.54 0.0976 0. 1598 52.05 7. -2 Model Lif2 TAble F-;mily is: SOUTH AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EDUIVALENT VAL_ES ** 3ROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q(1) q5) e(0) (10) S2x of children is SOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.148 ; F2)/F3) = 0.46 15-19 0.1236 1 0.1285 13.97 1983.77 0.1281 0.2038 5096 5Q,S9 20-24 0.1374 2 0.1448 15.63 1982.54 0.1125 0.1715 54-88 =693 25-29 0.1274 3 0.1400 16.61 1980.66 0.1019 0. 1496 57.67 =3 30-34 0.1508 5 0.1542 16.57 1978.37 0. 1039 0. 1539 57. 12 -E . 0 35-39 0.1566 10 0.1629 1.6.64 1975.79 0.1034 0.1527 57.27 j`. 40-44 0.1723 15 0. 1755 16.33 1972.96 0.1061 0. 1583 56.4 7 =7 45-49 0.1848 20 0.1859 16.29 1969.82 0.1065 0.1591 56.44 57.- Øverage Level, Ages 20-34 : 16.34 0.1061 0.1582 56.5 Z Model Life Table Family is: EAST AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EOUIVALENT VALUEY **** GROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) eW() w(t Sex of children is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.148 ; P(2)/F(.) = 0.461 15-19 0.1236 1 0.1362 14.56 1983.76 0.12.56 0.1805 52.07 54,37 20-24 0.1374 2 0.1451 15.33 1982.48 0.1235 0.1632 53.94 55.21 25-29 0.1374 3. 0.1385 16.10 1980.55 0.1118 0.1465 55.() 5 .)5o - 30-34 0.1508 5 0.1522 15.86 1978.22 0.1154 0.1516 55.22 52.79 35-39 0.1566 10 0.1612 15.95 1975.59 0.1140 0.1496 55.44 55. 39 4!-44 0.1723 15 0.1746 15.68 1972.70 0.1182 0.1556 54. 7 c 559 45-49 i.1848 20 0.1856 15.68 1969.46 0.1183 (J.17 54. 5.8 Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 15.77 0. 1169 0. 1537 54. q 5.6 72 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY NORTHEAST RURAL Estimation of child mortality from proportions of children dead ,odel Life Table Family is; WEST AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. *++* EQUIVALENT ,ALUES ORCUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(1) qVS) 0(0) Sux of children is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.148 P(2)/P(3) = 0 15-19 0.1236 1 0.1354 12.58 1983.76 0.1348 0. 20028 47 5. -6 20-24 0.1374 2 0.1450 13.86 1982.50 0.1167 0.1709 50.65 !Q.00 25-29 0.1374 3 0.1377 14.91 1980.60 0.1033 0.1493 53.16 =71 30-34 0.1508 5 0.1522 14.79 1978.32 0.1048 0.1518 52.87 57.17 35-79 0.1566 10 0. 1608 15.03 1975.79 0.1018 0. 1469 53.44 77 4S 40-44 0.1723 15 0.1748 14.85 1973.07 0.1040 0.1505 3 =C2 5.24 45-49 0.1848 20 0.1860 15.00 1970.11 0.1022 0. 1476 53.31 zz.41 Average Level, Ages 20-34 14.52 C. 102 0. 1 572 5 2. 52.2 73. TabLe A.S.A: Anklysis of Brazit 1984 PRAD Su""ey Data on frtlLity and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Southeast Region BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SOUTHEAST e ptic,ns z- Ectad ere .s ol uws: Number 3elecGted Typ- of -cnal ysi s 1 2 oth Fert : Mort El Badry Correction 2 No EI Badry Corr. Treatment of N. S. rEB 3 1 ignore N. 5. wonen Life Table Fami1y 4 1 C-D Family - Af1 Sex Ritio0 at Bi r th 5 105.0 Census or Survey Date 6 1984.76 The b.asic data entered are as fc1lows: 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 3 40-44 1 FEMPOF 2858052 2863611 2589119 2186941 1792R4 14497 1 2 CEBT 3073.52 1999391 3955259 5138857 547500 44 7 - 6 BIR-SUR 130600 399619 377895 231416 111295 14 CHSURVT 2938c 190(-145 3741138 4844261 506812 497299C 74 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SOUTHEAST Co. a.l ai o ofP/FRatos orALL brh M_E WOMEN CEB ANNUAL AVERASE FERT I I TY CUMUL TEL UBIRTHS FARITY RATES FERTIL= SURVE`,Y 15-19 2858052 307352 130600 0. 108 0. 046 0. 056 I1 20-24 296361 1 17999391 399619 0 .698 0. 140 0.624. 30-34 -18U941 5138857 231.416 2.350 0.10á 1.9 1 !W-44 1449511 3438468 3690) 3.753 0.025 2.z32 45-49 1332491 5722739 6239 4.295 0.005 2.641 1 Facor ar :Colmn2, no2 adjus:-tm-ent; 3 P (2)/F ' )- 4, F (3) F (3); 5, Average o-f P(2)/F<2) a-nd P 6, Average of P (2/F(2) , P (3 /F ) n :' ,3 8ROUP f(i ) f (i) f (i )F (i f (1 ac tor: 1.000 1.118 1.111 1. 115 1. 136 15-19 0.0564 0.0630 0.0626 0.0628 h0.4,0 20-24 0. 1446 0. 1617 0. 1607 0. 1612 0. 1643 25-29 0.1431 0.1600 0.1591 0. 1596 0- 162. 30-34 0.1009 0.1129 0. 1122 0. 1125 0. 1147 35-39 0. 0583 0. 0652 0. 0648 0 . 60 0663 40-44 0.0224 0.0251 0.0249 0.0250 0.0255 45-49 0. 0034 0. 0038 0. 0038 0. 0038 0. 0039 - TA L FERTILITY 2.6463 2.9587 2.9405 2.9496 3.0064 75 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SOUTHEAST Estimation of child mortality from proportions of children dead Mode! =a- Taýble Family is: NORTH Q8E PROP. ASE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EUALENT'LS GROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q 1) q 3) 2c0) ex o-f =hi i dren i s BOTH PW()/PC2) = . 154 ;.7P?) - 13-19 0,0441 t 0.0463 19.80 1783.72 0.0460 W.2675 65.1 30.-~ 20-24 0 .0496 22 0 .0500 20 .15 1982. 51 0 .0429 0.-0621 6å= 62 5 25-29 0.0541 3 0.0519 2XA.40 i19:830, ý76 ,-.).-,040 0 . C*' ý:ý! 35 41 W0-34 0.0573 5 0.0569 2(A.52 1978.ó 6 -.ý,,380.56 6 9 1 35-39 0.0744 10 C 0785 19.75 1976.29 Cv464 .0682 64.=9 50. 10-44 0.085 15 0.0890 19.53 1973-70 C-0484 0.0716 64-45 E-= 45-49 0.1039 2) Cu.1059 19.17 197.32 0 .0771 L3.55 5' - Aver age Level Ages 20-34 20.36 0. 0412 0. 591 W. 53 =7 Modei Life Tazbe Family i: SOUTH UGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. ** ECUIVALENT ' ALUES ÷** GROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q (1) q(5) _ 'A _ I ce-x of chi l dr en is BOTH P(1)/P2)= 0.154 ; P 2)/F') 45 15-19 0.0441 1 0.0448 22.87 1983. 73 0. 0447 .0528 72. b. 20-24 0. 0496 2 0. 0522 22. 7 1982. 50 0. 0475 Cu0567 V1.3 25-29 0.0541 5 0.0552 22.52 1980.66 0.0480 .0575 71.75 AZ7 70-34 0.0573 5 0.0588 22.43 1978.42 0. 0489 0. 0587 ¯, ý81L- 35-39 0.0744 10 0.0777 21.29 1975.90 0,597 W.2745 83.70 _ 40-44 0.0856 15 C.0875 20.83 1973.13 0.0640 .0812 67~7 -.6 43-4¯? 0.1039 20 0.1048 20.08 1969.99 0.072 0,92 5 7.. 7. Pverage Level, Ages 20-34 : 22.51 0.0481 .0576 71.72 A Model Life Table Family is: EAST AGE PROP. ASE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EOUIVALENT VPLUES GROUP DEAD .: x-. LEVEL DATE q ( 1) q(5) ek0) m(10) Sex of children is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.154 ; P(2) /P(3) - 0. 457 19-19 0.0441 1 0.0478 20.98 1983.72 0.0476 0.>58 7.3 = i.53 20-24 0.0496 2 0.0523 20.84 1982.44 0.0480 0.0564 67.24 21. Z8 25-29 0.0541 5 0.0546 20.82 1980.55 0.0483 0.0568 67.19 61.45 30-34 0.0573 5 0.0580 20.76 197.27 0. 0490 0. 0577 6 7. 05 C1 . 38 35--9 0,0744 10 0.0768 19.90 1975.71 0.0600 0.0720 64,98 50.30 1 0-4 0.0856 15 0.0870 19.58 1972.86 0.0640 0.0778 81.21 59 75 35-49 0.1039 20 0.1046 19.08 1969.64 0.0704 0.0871 62.99 5.7 Average Level, Ages 20-34 2:.81 0.0485 0.0570 67.6 1 1 4 76 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SOUTHEAST Esti mation of child mortality from proporticoins L+ 1hi1dre n dead Modo! Life Table Famiiy is: WEST ABE PISP. ABE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EDUIVALENT W(ALLE k-** SROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q(1) q= () 1) -2,1i Ee.t o-i chi 1dren i s BOTH F(1)/P(2) = 0.154 ; (2) /F (3) 1 15-19 0.0441 1 0.0474 19.89 1983,72 0.0471 0.0607 65.26 59.sá 20-24 0.0496 2 0.0523 20.00 1992.46 0.0460 0.0590 65.53 sKol1 25-29 0.0541 3 0.0543 20.08 1980.60 0.0452 0. 05 79 671 6 11 30-34 0. 0573 5 0.0581 20.09 197S.237 0.0451 00577 65.73 1- 35-39 0.0744 10 0.0767 19.32 1975.90 0.0530 0.0699 63.33 19.9 40-44 0. 0856 15 0.0872 19. 03 1973. 22 0. 0560 0. 0747 S3.13 Z8 45-49 0.1039 20 0.1049 18.58 1970.27 0. 0608 0.0C22 :52,4 5-.1 Average Level, Ages 20-34 )20.(05 0. 0454 0. 0582 65.63 50.0e 77 Table A.5.B: Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on FertiLity and ChiLd Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child SurvivaL Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Southeast Urban Population BRAZIL 1964 PNAD SURVEY SOUTHEAST URBAN he options sele'cted are as follows- optian Inde< Valu.-Le Description Number Selected Typo oK Analysis 1 2 Both Fert & Mort : . r Correction 2 1 No El Badry Corf. Treatment of N.S.CEB _ I Ignore N.S. women Life Table Family 4 1 C-D Family - All Se:< Ratio at Birth 5 105.C Census or Survey Date 6 1984.76 The casic data entered are as follows: 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 5-39 40-4 1 FEMPOP 2412688 2498434 2308505 1946318 1575614 1273831 11557 2 CEBT 250868 1621341 3343123 4319331 4498208 445897 16250- 6 BIR-SUF 108051 333070 326312 197302 85639 21301 -2E 14 CHSURVT 239408 1540526 3168339 4079044 4120179 092204 41727 78 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SCUTHEAST URBAN -. .tionof PF Rati os for ALL births ABE WM 0-EN CEB ANNUAL AVERAGE FERTILITY CUMUL-EY F BIRTHS PARITY ,RATES ERLIT SURVEY i5-19 2412688 250868 108051 0. 104 0.045 0. 094 2- 2498434 1621:341 33370C) 0. 649 25-29 2308505 33431-23 36312 1.4481 30-4 1946318 4 319331 197302 2.219 1 3- 1575614 4498208 85639 2.855 0.054 4C-44 1273881 4458933 26099 5"0 . J 4 1.155716 4625035 3851 4.002 C.,, .7 Reporte--d and a=djutstL-d age-speci4fic f erti lity-, raýte2s frtrue g .;o2p 9actors are : Column 2, no adjustment; 3, P(2)/F(2) ; 4 , F' (3) / F (:3) ;, 5, Average of P (2) /F (2) and P 3) ) 6, Average of F (2) /F (2) ,P3)/F(3) .n P3 (4 AiE ROUP -f (i) f(i) f(i f(i) f(i) Factor: 1.000 1.081 1.093 1.087 1.110 15-1 9 0.0552 `0. 0597 u. 0604 0.0600 0 0612 20-24 0.1382. 0.1494 0.1511 0.1502 0.1533 25-29 0.1386 0.1498 0.1515 0. 1507 0. 1537 30-34 0.0961 0.1039 0.1051 0. 1045 0.1.066 - 0.0506 .0.0547 0.0553 0.0550 0.(0562 40 --4-4 0.C> 0179 0.0193 0.0196 -.01195 0.01.99 45-49 0.0024 0.0026 0.0027 0.0026 0.0027 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.4950- 2.6974 2.7277 2.7126 2.7682 79 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SOUTHEAST URBAN Estimation o-F child mortality frrm proportions of children dead M:dLi Life Table Fam mily is: NORTH AGE PRGP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT VALLES **** G-OUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q q ( <5) e(0) a(0) 2=x of children is BOTH F'1)/F'(2) =0. 160 P' E)/P3) = W.443 15-19 0,0457 i 0.0468 19.74 1983.67 .4 '. 4.97 20-24 0.04?8 2 0.0501 20. 4 1982.48 0. 43 .623 5. t 23-29 0.0523 3 0.0504 20.53 1980.78 0.0398 z0.0566 66.96 21.56 20-34 0.0556 5 0.0556 20.61 1978.75 0.771 0.,554 '7.17 1 Q8 35-39 0.0707 10 0.0751 19.93 1976.47 0 .0448 0 . 6 34 5. 4 < 0 72 40 44 E0821 15 C h0860 19 9 1973.95 0 .470 0. 0692 64.B3 0.37 45-49 0.0975 2 0 .1000 19.45 1971.02 () } 2,491 C. 7 28 74.2'5 ,(5 -erage Lvel, 4ges 20--34 : 20. 47 0.0406 0. 0581 66. 70 61 42 Mode! LW Table Family is; SOUTH AGE 9RP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. * E** EQUIVALENT YALUES **** 3ROUP DEAD X LEVEL DATE q (1) q(5) e (0) e(10) Sex -f ch i l dr en is BOTH P(1)/F(2) = 0.160 ;P ),/ ) = 15-19 0.0457 i 0.0452 22.83 1983.68 0.0451 0. 34 72.52 o. 7 4 20-24 0.0498 2 0.0523 22.56 1982.47 0. 0476 0. 9 1. 35 25-29 0.0523 3 0.0536 22.565 1980.69 0. 0468 0. 7 72. 08 6.. 47 30-34 0.0556 5 0.0574 22.54 1978.53 .0479 C.0572 71.80 A6.X) 35-39 0.0707 10 0.0742 21.51 1976.10 0. 0575 0 . 071 69A. 2 -4. 7 40-44 0.0821 15 C. 0843 21 .01 1973.40 C. 0623 0. 0785 68.02 64.02 45-49 0. 0975 20 0. 0989 20. 41 1970.28 0.0680 0.0876 66.54 63.17 Qverage Level, Ages 20-34 : 22.58 0.0474 0.0566 71.91 56.37 Model Life Table Family is: EAST AGE PROP. AGE q(x> MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT VALUES **** GRU DEAD - LEVEL DATE q(1) q(3) e (0) e(10) Sex of children.js BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.160 F'(2)/F'(,3) = 0.448 15-19 0.0457 1 0.0487 20.81 1983.66 0.0484 0.0569 67.17 61.44 20-24 0.0498 2 0.0525 20.83 1982.41 0.0482 0.0566 67.21 61.46 25-29 0.0523 3 0.0529 20.993 1980.58 0.0469 0.0550 67.45 a1.59 30-34 0.0556 5 0.0565 20.85 1978.39 0.0479 0.0562 67.27 61.49 35-39 0.0707 10 0.0733 20. 09 1975.92 0. 0576 0.0687 65.43 60.53 10-44 0.0821 15 0.0838 19.74 1973.15 0.0621 0.0750 64.58 60.12 43-49 0.0975 20 0.0986 19.35 1969.93 0.0670 0.0821 63.65 59.68 Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 20.87 0.0477 0.0560 67.31 61.51 80 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SOUTHEAST URBAN Eshimaticn of child mortality from proportiorns of children -Iead Mcdæl Lif e 7-kble Family 1: JEST AEE PR=. C,E (x) MC,RT. 5EF. **** EQUIVALENT 'JLES RCUP EAD LEVEL DATE q(!) qi(5) S(O) .4 x f ih i dr ri >s BOTH P (1)/P(2) = 0. 160 P (2 I P )= 4 15-19 0.0O457' 1 0. 0480 19. 83 1983. 67 0. 0477 0. 0617 65. 11 5,7 20-24 0. 0498 2 0. 0524 19. 99 1982. 43 0. 0461 0. 0592 65. 50 25-29 0.0523 3 0.0527 20.20 1980.63 0.0440 ck 0561 66.00 6 30-34 0. 0556 5 0. 0566 20. 18 1978. 48 0. 0441 0. 0563 65.96 35-39 0.0707 10 0 0733 19.51 1976.09 0.0510 0.0668 64.33 40-44 0.0821 15 0.0841 19.19 1973.48 0.0543 C0.721 6353 45-49 0.0975 20 0.0991 18.85 1970.54 0.0578 0.0775 6,2. 71 Average Level , Ages 20-34 20.12 0.0447 0.0572 52 81 Table A.5.C: Anatysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the PIF Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Southeast Rural Population BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SOUTHEAST RURAL Thrptians selected are as -follows:- ion Indcev Va2l1ue Desct- pion Number Selected Type f Anlysi 1 2Both Fert & Mnrt El Bad-y Correction 2 i No El Badry Corr. Treatment af N. 3CEB 3 Lif2 Tl Family 4 1 C-D Family -A1 Fe:.Rtinoat Birth 3 105.0 nsu or ur-vy Date 6 1984.76 The basi data entered are ýs follows: 15-19 20-24 25-2 30-34 3-4-39 1 FEMFOF 445564 3.65177 280614 240623 216972 CEBT 56484 378050 612136 819526 977 ' 6 BIR-SUR 22549 66549 51583 34114 25656 !4 CHSURVT 54398 359619 572799 765217 887949 0132 82 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SOUTHEAST RURAL Calculation ari P/F Ratios fcr ALL tirths AGE WOMEN CEB ANNUAL AVERAGE FERTILITY CUMULATEDT 7F GROUP BIRTHS PARITY RATES FERTILIV, SURVEY 15-19 445364 56484 22549 0.127 0.051 0.1os 1.27 20-24 365177 378050 66549 1.035 0.182 0.70 1 25-29 280614 612136 51583 2.181 0.184 t.750 1 10-34 240623 819526 34114 3.406 0.142 2,TL6 K 35-39 216972 977392 25656 4.505 0.118 3.114 40-44 L75270 979535 10801 5.1% 0.062 3588 15-49 176775 1097704 2388 6.210 0.014 3,744 1.0f: Reported and adjusted age-specific fertility rates for true age froups : Factors are : Column 2, no adjustment; 7, P(2)/F(2); 4, P(3) /F (:7);- 5, Average of P(2)/F(2) and Pt ).2FC) 6, Average of P(2)/F(2), P(7.)/F ) t, .nd P 4 F/`4 AGE GROUP f1(i) f(i) f(i) +f(i) W i:) Factor: 1.000 1.327 1.261 1.294 1.314 15-19 0.0629 0.0835 0.0793 0.0814 0.0826 20-24 0.1893 0.2511 0.2786 0.2449 Cn2487 25-29 0.1AK1 0.2402 0.2283 0.234Z 0,2379 30-34 0.1388 0.1841 0.1750 0.1796 0.1823 35-39 0.1144 0.1518 0.1442 0.1480 0.1507. 40-44 0.0553 0.0733 0.0697 0.0715 0.0726 45-49 0.0101 0.0135 0.0128 0.0131 0. 0133 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.7592 4.9876 4.7398 4.8637 4.9389 83 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SOUTHEAST RURAL Estimation of child mcrtaýlity Trmr o portions of childrern dead Modæl Life T.a:ble Family is: NORTH AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. * EQUIV LE* ARCUP DEMD X LEVEL DATE q(!) (5) e(o' 1 := Q ildrep is BOTH PFM/FP12) F .I23 ; P 15-19 0.0369 1 0.0427 20.20 1983.93 0.0425 0.06V3 66.14 5 2C-24 0.0488 2 0.0500 20.16 19S2.68 0.0429 0.0620 b6.03 25-29 00643 3 0. 0610 19.70 1980.76 0.0469 . 06?1 t4.86 30-3 4 0=.3663 5 0. 0645 2:Nu 01 i ?78B. £43 u . C,442 C. 06- é 42 6*ý~5. 65: ý: 8ýC- . 23-39 0.0915 10 0.0943 18.38 1975.80 0.0541 0.0817 62.82 526 40-44 0. 1015 15 C. 1032 18. 81 1972.98 0. 0548 0k0828 62.65 i5 1 43-49 01305 20 0.1306 18. 04 1970 . 0 0620 0. 095- 60 . 7C `5 B. vr-age Levc?i, Aiges -2 -4 : 1995 C.0446 0.065i 6 .51 ý I Model Li.f.= TabeFamily is: SOUTH -G8E R. CGE q x) MORT. REF. **** EDUI,ALENT VALLE* GROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) e(O) u(10 Sexz --- children is BOTH F(1) /P(2) = .123. PF-2)/P3) = 0.:37 15-19 0.0369 1 0.0416 23.22 1983.94 0.0415 0.0484 65.32 20-24 0.0488 2 0.0519 2. 60 1982.68 0.0473 0.0565 71.94 25-29 0.0643 3 0.0649 21.76 1980.66 0.0552 0.0678 69.{7 -2 0-34 0.0663 5 0.0669 21.83 1978.17 0.0545 0.066S 70.05 55.-. 35 -39 0.0 .915 10 0k0939 20,27 1975.35 0.0693 0.0897 66.20 62 58 40-44 0.1015 15 0 1020 19.97 1972.32 C. 0722 0. 0942 65. 47 . 5- 35-49 0.1305 20 Cu1298 18.81 1969.12 0.0834 0.1134 62.39 i 04 Overage Level, Ages 20-34 : 22.06 0.0523 0.0635 70.62 5,57 Model Life Table Family is: EAST AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT VALUES **** GROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) e0) ø=10) Sex of children is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.12. ; P(2)/P(3) = 0.475 15-19 0. 0369 1 0. 0431 21 . 28 1983. 93 0. 0429 0. 0499 68 . 31 52. c: 20-24 0.0488 2 0.0519 20.88 1952.61 0. 0476 0.0559 67.32 12 52 25-29 0.0643 3 0.0643 20. 19 1980.54 0.0563 0.0671 65.67 60.6 30-34 0.066. 5 0.0662 20.26 1978.00 0.0554 C>. 0659 65.84 60.71 35-39 0,0915 10 0.0932 19.08 1975.12 0.0703 0.0870 62.01 59, 8 404 . 1015 15 0. 1017 18. 88 197. 03 0. 0730 . 0908 A2. 52 3= 12-aq 0.1Z05 20 0.1297 17.97 1968.75 0. 0851 0. 1082 60.352 M8-1 Average Level, Ages 20-34 20.44 0.0531 0.0630 66.28 50.97 84 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SOUTHEAST RURAL Estimatir of cmild mortality from proporticns o-f children ded Mate L.if T.bie Family is: vEST AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EOUIVALENT IALUES ÷ GROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q( 1) q (5) W0) 'zK) 8- :o children is 8OTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.123 ;P(2)/P(,3''5 = ) ~.47 15-19 0.0369 i 0.0433 20.29 1983.93 0.0431 (. ~547 66.22 60 20-24 0 .WS4 2 0 .051 9 20 .03 1 982. 63 C). 0457 0 . 0586 b5. 5 25-29 0.0643 3 Cu.0639 19.41 1980.59 0.0()52,', C).0685 4.OS 30-34 0 .06.61 19.58 1978.11 0.03 C .658 64.49 57 35-39 0.0915 10 0.0927 18.44 1975.35 0. 0623 Ch'845 61.70 37 40-44 0.1015 15 0. 1015 18.30 1972.45 0.0638 0.0870 61.34 45-49 0. 1305 20 0. 1296 17.44 1969.48 0. 0733 0. 1018 59226 z-, Average Level, Ages 20-34 19.67 0.0493 0.0643 6 4.72 59 6 85 Table A.6.A: Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Central West Region BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY CENTRAL WEST Teptio~nHs selected are as co,lcws: _pti_ Index u Descritin Number eected of nalysis 1 2 Both Fert & Mort El Badry Crrection 2 1 No El Badry Tr atmnt of N. 8 CEB 3 1 Ignore N. S. women L Ta J amily 4 1 C-D Faoiy - Ail :32 Ratio at Birth 5 109.0 ensu or Survey Date 6 1984.76 The basic data entered are as f oL lows: 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 3 1 FEMFOF 470958 43.0111 369351 309820 24673 2 CEBT 77122 4293195 753550 399134 934741 6 BIR-SUR 33 722 7763.4 55640 35372 12917 14 CHSURVT 73411 408316 707831 83-9089 85C43 D 879 86 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY CENTRAL WEST Calculation o-f P/ Ratios for ALL births AGE WOMEN CEB ANNUAL AVERAGE FERTILITY CUMULATED( OROUP BIRTHS PARITY RATES FERTTLITY SURVEY 15-19 470968 77122 33722 0.164 0.072 0.155 20-24 430111 429395 77634 0.998 0.180 0.892 25-29 369351 753550 55640 2.040 0.151 1.725 30-34 309820 399134 35372 2.902 0.114 2.36 15-39 246783 934741 12917 3.788 0.052 2.750 1.7-: 40-44 202634 966657 5578 4.770 0.028 2.935 f- 7, 45-49 161498 905900 1140 5.609 0.007 3.011 1.EK7 Reported and adjusted age-specific fertility rates for true age group- Factors are : Column 2, no adjustment; 7, P(2)/F(2); 4, P(3)/F(3); 5, Average of P(2)/F(2) and P 6, Average of P(2)/F(2) , P(7) /F(3) and P F4> ' AGE GROUP f(i) f(i) f(i) F(i) f(i) Factor: 1.000 1.119 1.183 1.151 1.172 15-19 0.0882 0.0987 0.1044 0.1015 0.1034 20-24 0.1814. 0.2029 0.2146 0.2087 0.2127 25-29 0.1460 0.1640 0.1734 0.1687 0.1719 30-34 0.1079 0.1207 0.1276 0.1241 0.1265 35-39 0.0496 0.0555 0.0587 C.0571 0.0581 40-44 0.0249 0.0279 0.0295 0.0287 0.0292 45-49 0.0053 0.0059 0.0063 0.0061 0.0062 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.0192 3.3774 2.5718 l.4746 2.5405 87 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY CENTRAL WEST EEtimaticn of child mortality From proportions of childræn dead Model Life Table Family is: NORTH ASE PROP. ASE qx) MORT. REF. *** EQUIVALENT V4LLEE÷ GROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q(i) (3) WA) Milo) c:x h c il1d r en is BOTH F'(1)/F'(2) = 0.164 ; P"2`/PC3, 0 48 15-19 0.0481 i 0.0504 19.33 1983.73 0.0502 CA0748 63,93 57,G7 20-24 0.0491 2 0.0487 20.27 1982.45 0.0419 0.0803 66.32 25-29 0.0607 -0 0.0572 19.98 1980.59 0.0444 0.06'4- 6.5 -0,7' 30-34 0.0668 5 0.0653 19.96 1978.37 0.0446 0.0650 65.52 a 75-39 0.0838 10 0.0871 19.27 1975.89 0.0506 0.0756 63.80 59.J 10-44 0.0B98 15 0.0921 19.37 -1973.20 0.0498 0.0741 64.04 59.77 45-49 0. 1224 20 0.1234 18.37 1970.31 0.0589 0.0901 61. 228= Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 20.07 0.0436 0. 0633 65.1 E 0.91 Model Life Table Family is: -OUTH ASE PROP. ASE q(x) MORT. REF. +*** EQUIVALENT VALUE ÷** GROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5 e(0) W19) 8x of chiidren is BOTH P(I)/P(2) -= 0;164 ; P 2P = 'or9 15-19 0.0481 1 0.0488 22.45 1983.74 0.0487 0.3O84 71.7 A6.15 20-24 0.0491 2 0.0508 22.69 1982.44 0.0464 0.0552 72.1 58..4 25-29 0.0607 3 0.0610 22.05 1980.48 0.0524 0.0637 70.'-9 30-34 0.0668 5 0.0677 21.78 1978.11 0.0550 0.0676 59'1 é314 35-39 0.0838 10 0.0865 20.72 1975.45 0.0650 0.0!28 67.31 ±':'1 40-44 0.0898 15 0.0909 20.63 1972.58 0.0660 0.0843 67. 8 4S 45-49 0.1224 20 0.1224 19.17 1969.44 0.0800 0. 1072 6. 49 6.44 Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 22.17 0.0513 0.0621 70. 9 3-- Model Life Table Family is: EAST ASE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT VALUES **** GROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) e (O) a(10) Se- uf children is BOTH F,(1)/P(2) = 0.164 ; P(2)/P(3) = 0.489 15-19 0.0481 1 0.0521 20.54 1983.72 0. 0518 0.0613 66.52 w'1.10 2f-24 0. 0491 2 (. 0512 20. 92 1982.37 00. 470 0. 0551 67. 43 1. 58 25-29 0.0607 3 0.0606 20.43 1980.36 0.0532 0.0631 66.26 60.96 30-34 0. 0668 5 0. 0669 20.22 1977.95 0. 0560 0. 0666 6. 74 60. 69 35-39 0.08338 10 0.0858 19.46 1975.24 0.0656 0.0801 6 3.'0 59.80 0-44 0 .0898 15 0.0905 19.42 1972.30 0 .0661 >. 0809 63. 3 i Z9.76 a5 -49 1.1224 20 0. 1222 18.30 1969.07 0. 0807 0. 10 19 61.12 - . Z Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 20.52 0.0521 0.0616 66.48 61.09 88 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY CENTRAL WEST Estimation -f child mortality from proportions of children deckd Mcdel Life Table Family is: WEST A1E PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALEJT VLUES 3ROUF OEAD × LEVEL DATE q (1) q (5) e() 1 .ex of children is BOTH FM)/PM2) = 0.164 P(2)/F'i3) =.489 15-19 0.0481 1 0.0516 19.48 1983. 73 . 4013 W. 0673 64.25 59.. 20-24 0.0491 2 0.0510 20.10 1982. 40 0. 0449 0. 0575 65. 6 3 25-29 0.0607 3 C. 0601 19.67 1980..41 0.0494 0. 0643 64.72 ~'75 30-34 0.0668 5 0.0669 19.53 1978.06 0. 0508 C. 0665 64.37 5'75 35-39 0.0838 10 (h 0854 18.84 1975.46 0.0580 0.0778 52.67 6 . 43 40-44 0.0898 15 . 0904 18.86 1 972. 70 0. 0578 0. 0775 62.72 5B. 45-49 0. 1224 2) 0. 1223 17.77 1969.77 . 0696 0. 0960 56 .0. 57. 0 1 Average Level, Ages 20-34 19.77 0.0484 0.0627 64.95 59.6 9 8S Table A.6.B: Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child MortaLity by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass ChiLd Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: CentraL West Urban Population BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY CENTRAL WEST URBAN The opticns selected are as follows: Option index Valute Descr i pition Number See Cted Type of Analysis 1 2 Both Fert & Mort El Badry Correction 2 1 No El Badry Corr. T-eatmant of N..CEB 3 1 Ignore N. S. Wome-n Life Table Family 4 1 C--D Family - All Sex RatiQ at Birth 5 105.0 CenSUS or Survey Date 6 1984.76 The basic data entered are as follows: 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 49- 1 FEMPOP 375056 339993 291592 246718 193642 157905 2 CEBT 54618 301403 550854 664666 674638 713067 6 BIR-SUR 24677 54014 41337 26244 8722 3852 14 CHSURVT 52104 2E8291 520752 621725 630278 649757 &2'. 90 BRAZIL 1964 PNAD SURVEY CENTRAL WEST URBAN Calculation of P/F Ratios for ALL births AGE WOMEN CEB ANNUAL AVERAGE FERTILITY CUMULATED P(I) BIRTHS PARITY RATES FERTILTY SURVEY 15-19 375056 54618 24677 0.146 0.066 0.143 1,017 20-24 339993 301403 54014 0.886 0.159 C.794 1.117 25-29 291592 550854 41337 1.889 0.142 1.559 1.212 30-34 2a6718 664668 26244 2.694 0.106 2.181 1 23: 75-39 193642 674638 8722 3.484 0.045 2.505 1.391 40-44 157905 713087 3855 4.516 0.024 2.671 1169 45-49 124248 651789 626 5.246 0.005 2.730 1.921 Reported and adjusted age-specific fertility rates for true age gruupE Factors are : Column 2, no adjustment; 3, P(2)/F(2); 4, P(3)/F(3); 5, Average of P(2)/F(2) and P(3)/F(3); 6, Average of P(2)/F(2), P(3)/F(:) and P(4)/F(4) i3E GROUP + (i) f(i) f(i) f(i) Factor: 1.000 1.117 1.212 1.164 1.188 15-19 0.0805 0.0899 0.0975 0.0937 0.0956 20-24 0.1603 0.1790 0.1942 0.1866 0.1904 25-29 0.1383 0.1544 0.1676 0.1610 0.1643 30-34 0.1000 0.1116 0.1211 0.1164 0.q1187 35-39 0.0426 0.0476 0.0517 0.0497 0.0507 40-44 0.0219 0.0244 0.0265 0.0254 0.0260 45-49 4.0037 0.0042 0.0045 0.0043 0.0044 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.7365 3.0562 3.3156 3.1859 3.2507 91 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY CENTRAL WEST URBAN Estimation of child mortality from proportions of children dead Model Life Table Family is: NORTH AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT VALLUES GROUP DEAD X LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) e(0) e(10) Sex of children is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0. 164 ; P(2)/P(3) = CK46 15-19 0.0460 1 0.0474 19.67 1983.69 0.0472 0.0695 5479 60.5 20-24 0.0435 2 0.0434 20.77 1982.46 0.0378 0.0531 67.56 25-29 0.0546 3 0.0521 20.39 1990. 68 0. 0409 0. 0586 66.61 AL.37 30-34 0.0646 5 0.0639 20.05 1978.56 0.0438 0.0636 65.75 60988 35-39 0.0658 10 0.0691 20.27 1976.19 0.0419 0.0603 66.12 6t- 40-44 0.0888 15 0.0921 19.37 1973.59 0.0498 0.0741 64.04 59.97 45-49 0.1215 20 0. 12 :3 13.36 1970.72 0.0590 0.0903 61.50 8. 53 Average Level, Ages 20-74 : 20. 40 0.0409 0.0584 66.64 6 j.3 Model Life Table Family is: SOUTH AG4E PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT VALIJES * GROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) e(0) e(1G) Sex of children is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.164 ;P(2)/P) - 0,469 t5-19 0.0460 1 0.0459 22.76 1983.70 0.0457 0.0543 72.35 65.5 20-24 0.0435 2 0.N0453 23.19 1982.44 0,0418 0.0488 6. 6 17-71 25-29 0.0546 3 0.0555 22.50 1980.58 0.0482 0.0577 71 70 ',-4 30-34 0.0646 5 0.0661 21.89 1978.32 o,.0539 0.0659 70 19 15.31 35-39 0.0658 1 0.0695 21.99 1975.79 0.0540 0.0660 70 18 45.71 40-44 0.0888 15 0.0906 20.64 1973.01 C.0658 C.OS40 67,111 63 45-49 0.1215 20 0.1224 19.17 1969.88 0,0800 0.1072 6.49 At,44 Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 22.53 0.0480 0.0574 71.77 66.2S Model Life Table Family is: EAST AGE PROP. EAEq(x). MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT VALUES ***+ GROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) w(0) e(10) Sex of children is.BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.164 ; P(2)/P(3) = 0.469 15-19 0.0460 1 0.0492 20.77 1983.68 0.0490 0.0576 67.07 61.3q 20-24 0.0435 2 0.0456 21.35 1982.38 0.0421 0.0489 68.49 c2 19 25-29 0.0546 3 0.0550 20.80 1980.46 0.0486 0.0571 67.14 61.42 30-34 0.0646 5 0.0652 20.32 1978.17 C.0546 0.0649 65.99 60.82 35-39 0.0658 10 0.0678 20.41 1975.59 0.0536 0.0635 66.19 60.97 40-44 0.0888 15 0.0901 19.43 1972.74 0.0659 0.0805 63.85 59.-F 45-49 0.1215 20 0.1222 18.31 1969.53 0.0807 0.1018 61.t3 58.50 Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 20.82 0.0483 C.0567 67.2f) 61.45 92 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY CENTRAL WEST URBAN Estimation of child mortality from proportions of children dead elode Li F- TaLe Family is: WEST AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT VALUE ** GROUF DEAD LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) (10 Eex of children is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.164 ; P(2)/F'(3,) = 0.469 15-19 0. 0460 1 0.0486 19.77 1983. 69 0. 0483 0. 0627 64.96 59. 6` 20-24 0. 0435 2 0.0454 20. 55 1982.40 0. 0404 0. 0508 66 0.~6 25-29 0. 0546 3 0. 0546 20.06 1980.51 0.0454 0.0582 65. 66 3-34 0. 0646 5 0.0653 19.63 1978.27 0. 0498 0. 0649 64.62 59.5i 35-39 0.0658 10 0. 0676 19.83 1975.79 0. 0477 0 .0617 65.12 59 .9 78 40-44 0.0888 15 o. 0902 18.87 1973. 11 0. 0577 0. 0773 62. 74 5S.Z7 45-49 0.1215 20 0.1225 17.76 1970.18 0.0697 0. 0962 6).(4 w -7 Average Level, Ages 20-34 20.08 0.0452 0. 0578 65.72 j!o1 93 Table A.6.C: Analysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child Mortality by the PIF Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: Central West Rural Population BRAZIL 1964 PNAD SURVEY CENTRAL WEST RURAL Thc cptiuns selected are as follows: pti-jn index Yal ue Descripti on Number Selected p H Analysis 1 2 Both F-rt & Mort 1 adry Correctern 2 1 No El Badry Corr. r -tmen t of N . -C E8 3 Ignore N.S. womer Li÷E Table Fa~mi1y 4 1 C-D Fa-nily -- Ali ,ex Ratio at Birth 5 105.0 CenSuS or Eurvey Date 6 1984.76 The basic data entered are as fol lows: 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 -3 144 1 FEMPOP 95912 9(0118 77759 63102 53141 429 2 CEBT 22504 127992 202696 234466 26010 2 6 BIR-SUR 9045 23620 14303 9128 41957 14 CHSURVT 217307 120025 187079 217364 276 1071 94 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY CENTRAL WEST RURAL Walcu.1mLimn ;` /F ,.atics f or ALL birtl.s ^GE WOMEN CEB ANNUAL AVERAGE FERTILITY TUMU .TE F SROUF BIRTHS PARITY RATES TERTILIT0 SURVEY 15-19 95912 22504 9045 0.235 0.C4 (" 109 20-24 90118 127992 23620 1.420 0.262 1.261 25-29 77759 202696 14303 2.507 0.184 2.351 111 30-34 63102 234466 9128 7.716 0.145 - 117 L.77 35-39 53141 260103 4195 4.895 0.079 .676U 40-44 44729 253570 1723 5.669 0.09 3 Az 45-49 37250 254111 514 6.822 0.014 Q065 1L 8 Reported and adj.usted age-specific fertility rates for true e u Factors are : Column 2, no adjUStment; 2, P(2)/F(2); 4, P'(3) /F (3); 5, Average of P(2)./F(2) and P(3) /F(<) 6, Average of P(2)/F(2), F() /F(7) ard '41 * GE G OUf(if( ) f(i) f(i) f(i) Factor: 1.000 1.119 1.109 1.114 1.134 15-19 0.1182 0.1323 0.1311 0.1317 0.1340 20-24 0.2606. 0.2917 0.2889 0.2903 0"2954 25-29 0.1781 0.1993 0.1975 0.1984 0.201? 30-34 0.1384 0.1549 0.1535 0.1542 0.157- 35-39 0.0748 0.0838 0.0830 0.0834 0.0849 40-44 0.0355 0.0397 0.0393 0.0395 0.0402 45-49 0.0106 0.0119 0.0118 0.0118 0.0120 T0T(L FERTILITY 4.0813 4.5679 4.5251 4.5465 4.6271 95 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY CENTRAL WEST RURAL Estimation of child mortality from proporticns of children dead Moel LiF3 Table Family is: NORTH E F'OP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EDUIVALENT VALUES *** 3ROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q(!) q(5) .(0) r2c 10." Sex ÷ children is BOTH F(1)/F2) = 0.165 ; 15-19 0.0532 1 0.0581 18.49 1983.84 0.578 0.881 61.83 3B,72 20-24 0.0622 2 0.0608 19.21 1?82.44 ').012 0.0766 63.4 Z9.-' 25-29 0. 0770 3 0 .0705 18. 98 1980. 35 0, 0533 4 02 3 -9. z7 30-34 0.0729 5 0.0690 19.71 1977.85 0.0467 0.0 682 -.1 6. ?1 3'-39 0.0921 10 0.0927 18.97 1975.06 0.0534 Cu@904 53.03 59.27 £0-44 0.0925 15 0.0922 19,37 1972.15 0.0498 0. C741 64. - z Z9, 9 45-49 0.1247 20 0.1225 13.41 1969.22 0.0586 0.895 61.X: 38.90 Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 19.30 0.C504 0. 752 63.7 -74 Mede! Lif Table Fa.mily is: SOUTH AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT VALUEB * GROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) e(O) a(10. Sex of children is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.165 F (2)/F'(3) = 545 15-19 0.0532 1 0.0564 21.65 1983.85 0.0562 0.0693 69.bhO 4.9% 20-24 0.0622 2 0.0633 21.62 1982.42 0.0565 0.0698 69.52 54.51 25-29 0.0770 3 0.0755 20. 96 1980.21 0.0628 0. 0792 67.89 53.991 30-34 0.0729 5 0.0722 21.46 1977.E4 0.0580 0.072 69.14 Z4,.V 35-39 0.0921 10 0.0929 20.33 1974.55 0 , 0688 0 ,. )87 66. 35 63. % 40-44 0.0925 15 0.0916 20.58 1971.42 0.0664 0. 0849 66.97 53.41 45-49 0.1247 20 0.1223 19.17 1968.25 00799 0.171 650 .45 &Berage Level, Ages 20-34 : 21.35 0.0591 0.0737 68.85 84.5i Model Life Table Family is: EAST ASE PROP. :AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EOUIVALENT VALLES GROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(l) q5? eW(0 e(=10 Sex 0f children is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = (.165 ; F(2)./P(3) = 0,545 15-19 0.0532 1 0.0593 19.98 1983.83 0.0590 0.0705 65.16 60.39 20-24 0.0622 2 0.0641 20.04 1982.35 ' 0582 0. 06?5 65.31 604 -=: 25-29 0.0770 3 0.0755 19.52 1980.08 0.0648 0.0790 64.06 59.97 20-34 0.0729 5 0.0717 19.93 1977.35 0.0596 0 0714 65.05 60.34 39-39 0.0921 10 0.0925 19.12 1974.31 0.0699 0.0863 63.09 59.42 4C-44 0.0925 15 0.0915 19.37 1971.11 0.0667 0.0817 63.69 5W.70 45-419 0.1247 20 0. 1223 18.30 1967.86 0.0807 0. 1020 61.11 5. hverage Level, Ages 20-34 : 19.83 0.0609 0.0733 64.80 60.22 96 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY CENTRAL WEST RURAL Estimation of child mortality -from proportion of children dead ,Modl Life Table F ly is: WEST AGE PROF. AWE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT ',/ALLES -GROUF' DEAD LEVEL DATE q (1) q (5) w (G e Sex of children is BOTH F(1)/P(2) = 0.165; F(2)/P(3) -4 15-19 0.0532 1 0.0591 18.76 1983.83 0.0588 0. 0791 62.48 38.3E 20-24 0.0622 2 0. 0637 19..13 1982.37 0.0549 0.0730 63.39 58.83 25-29 0.0770 3 0.0746 18.69 1980.14 0.0595 0.0803 62.32 3,. 24 30-34 0.0729 5 0.0713 19.26 1977.48 0.0536 0.0710 63.69 ? 35-39 0.0921 10 0.0916 18.50 1974.57 0.0616 0.0835 61.84 7.98 40-44 0.0925 15 0.0909 18.84 1971.60 0.0580 0.0778 62. 7 8- 45-49 0.1247 20 0.1215 17.80 1968.68 0.0692 0.0954 .60. - Average Level , Ages 20-34 19. 03 0.0560 0.0747 63. 1 8 97 Table A.7.A: Analysis of BraziL 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child MortaLity by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child SurvivaL Technique, Using the AFENDPC Package: South Region BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SUL "he o,ptions: selected -are as flollows:- Option Index Value Description Number Selected TQpe of Analysis 1 2 Both Fert & Iort El Badry Correction 2 1 No El Badry Cor-. Treaitment of N.S.CEB 3 1 Ignore N.S. women Life Table Family 4 1 C-D Family - nil Sex Ratio at Birth 5 105.0 CesnUs or Survey Date 6 1994.76 The basic data entered are as follows: 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 15-19 40-44 1 FEMPCP 1061448 976306 841908 746208 t36112 572476 2 CEBT 132752 748076 1390874 1887518 2187165 2196274 7q 6 BIR-SUR 51034 155692 120797 90649 38976 L218t1 14 CHSURVT 126440 715382 1325420 1784906 2027366 17, I: 98 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SUL ' a -.Ltl At io o f c Pj'1,/F* Rati4.os for ALL !:1i r-ths AGE WOMEN CEB ANNUAL AVERAGE FERTILITY CUMULfAT:.:D F 3RCUP' BIRTHS PARITY RATES "ERTILI7Y SURVEY 13-19 101:i448 12752 51034 0.125 K049 Cb098 1.271 20-24 976306 748076 155692 0.766 0.159 n7074 25-29 841908 13?0874 120797 1.652 0.147 1,471 1.1 3D-34 746208 1887518 90649 2.529 0.121 2.147 !.i7 35-39 636112 2187165 38976 3.438 0.061 2.562 1.1 40-44 532436 2196334 12181 4.LO6 0.027 2,747 1wf 45-49 426015 2017359 1706 4.735 0.004 2.798 Reported and adjusted age-specific fertility rates for true age grup, Factors a.e : Colu[mn 2, no adjustment; 3, P(2)/F(2); 4, P(3)/F(.); 5, Average o+ P((2)/F(2) a nd F(5).F ':); 6, Average of P(2)/F(2), P3) /F7) an F AGE GROUP 4f(i) f(i) f(i) fTi) 1l) Pactor: 1.000 1.084 1.123 1.104 1.128 15-19 0.0603 0.0654 0.0677 0.0666 0.061 20-24 0.1634, 0.1771 0.1836 0.1804 0.1844 25-29 0.1411 0.1530 0.1585 0.1558 C157. 30-34 0.1160 0.1257 0. 1302 0.1230 CK1508 35-39 0.0569 0.0616 0.0639 0.0627 C-0642 40-44 0.0200 0.0217 0.0225 0.0221 0.020-6 45-49 0. 0029 0. 0032 0. 0033 0. 0032 037 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.8033 3.0384 3.1490 1.0937 3.1634 99 BRAZIL 1964 PNAD SURVEY SUL Estimation of child mortality from proportions of children dead Madel Li2e Table Family is: NORTH ASE PROP. AGE q (x) MORT. F. **** EUIVALENT YALLUES GROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q(!) q(5) e.0e) 3ex - children i s BOTH P(1)/P(2) 0, 163 F P (2) / (t43) = 15-9 0.0475 i 0. 0489 19.50 1983.,69 0.0487 0.?721 6.6 x= 20-2 ti 0.047 2C 037~ 20.74 1982.46 Ø. SvCC (- o ,-' !ý- .. 25-29 0.0471 - 0.,0450 20. 96 1980.70 0.0362 0.0502 683 b 35-34 0 0544 5 C.053 20.73 1978.61 0.0381 0. 3537 67. 46 35-39 0.0731 10 (L 0770 9,83 1976.26 0 0458 C. 7 65 . 9 6 7 Z0-4a 0. 0870 15 Ck 0905 19. 45 1973. 69 (. 0491 t. 0728 ±:.2 to 45-4q . 0860 20 O.OS77 20.04 1970.81 0.0439 0.0637 65.7 60.3 Average Lavel , Ages 20--34 :20. 81 0. 0374 0. 0525 67.67 i Model Life Table Family is: SOUTH AEE PROP. PSE q(x) MORT. REF. **EQUALENT VL 8ROUF DEAD . LEVEL DATE q ( 1) q.) eK() Sex! o children is RUTH P.1) /P(2) = 0.163 ; 2)/P'3) = i 4 15-19 0.0475 i 0.0473 22.61 1983.70 0.0472 O.C5-3 71.97 66 20-24 0.0437 2 0.0456 23. 16 1982. 45 0 0420 L . 0491 b7.7 L 25--29 0.0471 73 0.0479 23.12 1980.60 0.0424 (.0496 58,76 57.- 30-34 0. 0544 5 0.0557 22.66 197. 37 0 .0467 0u9556 7Z. 1 35-39 0.0731 A.O Cu0762 21.38 1975.87 0.058S C,07¯2 68,9 40-44 0.0870 15 0.0890 20.74 1973.11 0.0649 0.0226 673 q5-49 0.0860 20 0.368 2108 1969.99 0.0616 0,0773 00. 17 Avsrage Leval, &ges 20-34 : 22.98 0.0437 Ø=0514 -2 Model Life Table Family is: EAST AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. RE. **F EQUIVALENT VÅLUES - 3ROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE ;(1 q(5) a. cV Sex of children is BOTH P(1)/P,) - 0 .163 ; P(24'P'-- _éV 15-19 0.0475 1 0.0508 20.65 1983.68 0.0505 0 0596 66. 7 4 20-24 0.0437 2 0. 0458 21. 33 19e2. 39 0. 0423 ), I92 -8 2--29 0.0471 3 0.0474 21.33 190.49 0.0423 0,K492 5 70-34 0.0544 5 0.0550 20. 95 197.22 0.046 0.054 L -19 0,27~31 10 0.0754 19.97 19757 0.0591 7.1=7 0870 . 0385 19,90 1969.5 0. 06 ' 07'.''' Average Level, Ages 20-34 21.20 0.0437 - 100 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SUL M- F - . r - 471 29'bi 1980,54 C 7 0398 67 X r ~ Ag 's 20-34 20.47 0- 4~ t:. . i 101 Table A.7.B: Analysis of Brazil 1984 PINAD Survey Data on Fertitity and Child Nrtality by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: South Urban Population BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SUL URBAN Th £-ptirns se 2cted are as f1ll w s pt i =n In dx .Lue Des cri p1 i on Number 8elected Type uf Analysis 1 2 Both Fert & Mort a r Correction 2 1 No El Badry Corr. Treatment of N..CEB 3 1 Ignore N.S. women Life Table Family 4 1 C-D Family - All .3e.i Ratio .at Birth 5 105.0 Census or 5-urvey Date 6 1984.76 The basic data entered are as follows: 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-~4 35-39 40-4a 1¯- 1 FEMPOP 579318 657319 597929 523440 438765 357024 285 2 CEBT 90003 485376 910785 1227306 1363661 129685 122 6 DIR-SUR 373588 99043 78663 55905 26444 6396 14 CHSURVT 85662 466515 872263 1162408 1264369 117628a i 102 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SUL URBAN Ca lc -tion P/F R,a ti os for 1.3LL bi rths E WOMEN GED ANUL ERAE FERTILITY CUJMU 3F:L-P BIRTHS PARITY RATES FERT T1.;Y SURVEY 15-19 679318 90003 3368 0.132 W049 ch03 3- 20-24 657819 485376 99043 0.738 0.151 O1C 25-29 597929 9107S5 78663 1.i523 0.132 303 334 1227306 590 2.45 .0.= ~5-3 438765 1363661 26444 3.108 .n60 . ,2 90-44 3'7024 1296856 6396 3,632 C.018 Z p,]- ký .2C j: i e i t,,-,' 4 '* te<99- r l rL Reported and adjsted age-specific feri~ity rate focr re r s Fac-trs are Column nu adjustment; 3, " C) /F2 ;m 4, P )/F(3); 5, Average of F(2) /F (2) and F ) /F 6 , Average W- P (2) /F ( 2) ,P (3) F() an A E R UP f(i ) f (i) f(i ) f(i ) -f (i) Factor: 1.000 1.069 1.088 1.079 1. 110 15-19 0.0616 0.0659 0.0670 0.0665 0.0684 20-24 0. 1534 0. 1640 0. 1668 0. 1654 0. 1702 25-29 0.1289 0.1378 0.1402 0.1390 0. 1431 30-74 0.1024 0.1095 0.1114 0.1104 0. 11M6 35-39 0.0555 0.0594 0.0604 0.0599 0.0616 40-44 0.0159 0.0170 0.0173 0.0172 0.0177 45-49 0.0035 0.0037 0.0038 0.0038 ch0039 TCTAL FERTILITY 2.6061 2.7869 2..8347 2 O8108 2.8927 103 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SUL URBAN Estimation of child mortality from proporticns o-f childrern dead de i Life Table Family is: NORTH ASE PROP. AGE q (x) MORT. REF. **** E,:UiVLENT ÅLEE '-' * QROUF DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(!) q(2) e(G) w(25.'' 3ex of chiloren is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.180 ;-2> /P'3= - . 5-19 0.0482 1 0.0481 19.58 1983.64 0.0479 070 64.U 2 .M-24 0. 039 2 0.0382 21. 26 1982. 7 0.=3302 C. 2271 2-29 0. 423 3 0. 0400 21.38 1980, 57 0. 0329 C). 443 8.?77 ~0-74 0,0529 5 2.0521 2. 85 19R7P 44 C. C71 I -? 7 7- 75-39 0.0728 10 0. 0764 19. 86 1976. 07 0. 0454 ik0662 55.w28 QQ 40-44 0, C930 15 (.k0963 19. 16 1973. 49 0. 0517 0. 0774 63, 51 1K- 45-49 0.0950 20 0,0965 19.62 1970.63 C) C>476 0. 702 54. 57u hverage Level , Ages 20-74 : 21.16 0. C,345 C.0 4 .0 Made! LLfc Table Family is: 8OUTH AGE PROP. AGE q(w) MORT. REF. **** EQUIU,LENT VALLEZ 3ROUP DEAD - LEVEL DATE q(1) q(3) e(o) Sex of childrRn is BOTH P(1/P(2) = 0.180 ; P(2)/P(3) =-, .5-19 0.0482 1 0.0465 22.70 1983.65 Q. 0464 0. 3551 72.17 1 - 3 4 20-24 0. 0389 2 0.0399 23.69 1982.36 0.0371 C.0427 48 25-29 0.0423 3 0.0427 23.57 1980.46 0.0382 C.O441 33.1 7- 30-34 0 .0529 5 0.0540 22.79 1978.20 0. 0454 0. 7 35-39 0.0728 10 0.0757 21.41 1975.67 .0585( 0727 69.oi 40-44 0. 0930 15 0. .0947 20. 40 1972. 90 0. f61 0. ý8--' i. 32 43-49 0.0950 2 .0956 20.59 1969.79 0. 0849 66.9 si Q3: Avsrage Level , Ages 2(-34 : 23.35 0. 0403 O.C,4c3 60. >1>t45- Model Life Table Family is: EAST AGE PROP. ABE' qx) MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT VALUES **** GROUP DEAD 59X LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) e(0) .(W) Sex of chil dren is BOTH P (1) /P (2) = 0. 10 .; P (2) /P (3) 0. 494 15-19 0.0482 1 0.0504 20.68 1983.63 0.0501 0.091 66.85 Q=- 20-24 0.0389 2 0.0403 21.76 1982.29 0.0374 0.0431 69.50 627E - 22-29 0.0423 3 0.0423 21.70 1980.35 0.0380 0.0433 69,36 70 30-34 0.0529 5 0.0533 21.06 1978.04 0.0453 0. 0530 67.77 51,77 759 0.0728 10 o. 0749 20.00 1975.47 0.59>583 0702 65.21 41 4 -l 0070 15 0.0942 19.24 1972.63 0.0684 A.0841 53.78 -- 9 43-49 0.0950 20 0.0954 19.50 1969.43 0.0651 0.0794 64 it .,5 Average Level , Ages 20-34 : 21.51 0.0403 0.0466 68.88 6 2 104 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SUL URBAN stimation of child mortality from proportior-ns of childrEn dekt Model Life Table Family is: WEST ASE FROP. ASE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT ILEE. GROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q t) q I. IC -ex of children is BOTH F' (1 )/P(2) = 0.180 ; F12) /F'(3) = 0. 15-19 0.0432 i 0.0495 19.69 1983.63 Cu.0492 0.0641 64.7. 20-24 0.0389 2 0.0401 20.98 1982.31 0. 0 C60 0. 0445 67,9 - 25-29 0.0423 3 0.0420 20.98 1980.40 0. 0360 C. 0444 67.2 6i. , 30-34 0.0529 5 0.0533 20.41 1978.15 0.0418 0.0529 66.52 i. 35-39 0.0728 10 0.0747 19.43 1975.67 0.0518 0.0681 64.13 29,24 40-44 0 .0930 15 0. 0943 18.66 1973. 01 0.0599 0. 0808 62. 2A 58 S 45-49 0.0950 20 0.0956 19.02 1970.09 0.0560 W 0748 63.11 5. R0 Average Level , Ages 20-3,4 20.79 0.0380 0.0473 6-.', 5 105 Table A.C:- Anatysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Chitd Mortatlity by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEMOPC Package: South Rural Population BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SUL RURAL The Dptions selected are as follcwjs tion Index Value Descriptin NLmber Selected Typ 2 of Anais 2 Both Fert & Mor E Badry rCrrection 2 1 No El yadry Corr. Treaatment N.S.CEB 3 1 Ignore N. 8. women LiF Table Family 4 1 C-D Family - All Sex Ratio at Birth lo15. IencSuLS or Survey Date 6 1984.76 The basiC at.a entered are as follos: 15-19 20-24 25-29 3-34 35-9 4-14 FEMPC 3821 0 318487 243979 222768 197347 7412 2 CEBT 42749 262700 480089 660212 23504 6 BIr- 5UR 17446 56649 42134 34744 12532 :5 14 CHSURVT 4077q 248867 453157 622498 762997 819749 * .11 106 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SUL RURAL Calculation of P/F Ratios for ALL births C,E WOMEN CEB ANNUAL AVERAPSE FE:TILITY MULA TEY BRUF BIRTHS FARITY RT IIL T 3URVEY 5-19 382130 42749 17446 0.112 0.046 - - 2 C-4 31348 262700 56649 0. 8257 480'89 42134 1.968 17 7- 4 22 66c-,212 '34744 2.964 156 2. -9 197`47 827504 12542 4.17 4 40-3 175412 889478 5785 5.071 .3.5 140502 791126 373 5.63r1 Reporte d and adjLLsted age-specific frtiIity rate for true g gr Factors are : Colu.mn 2, no adjustment; 3, P(2)/F(2); 4, P(3) /F (3); 5, Average of P(2) /F (2) and F'(3)/F .3); 6 , Average cf P (2) /F (2) ,P() /F 13 ;2nd' P 4) F!.F ASE GROUP f(i) f(i) f(i) -F(i) F(i) Factor: 1.000 1.113. 1.207 1.160 117 15-19 0.0580 0.0645 0.0700 0. 0672 C.678 20-24 0.1a46 0.2054 0.2227 0.2141 0.2159 25-29 0.171t- 0.1904 0.2064 0.1984 0.2001 30-34 0.1477 0.1644 0.1782 0.1713 0. 172 3 5-39 0.0596 0.0663 0.0719 0.0691 (..97 40-44 0.0285 0.0317 0.0344 o. 45-49 0. 0019 0.0021 0.0023 0. 0022 0. 0022 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.2566 3.6241 3.9292 3.7767 3.8090 107 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SUL RURAL Estimation of child mortality from proportions of children dead Model Life Table Family is: NORTH AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EWULTALENT UALUE8 :** • GROUP DEAD LEVEL DA TE q(1() q(5) s() Se, cf children is BOTH P(1)/P (2) = 0.136 ; 2)P(3) u419 15-19 0 .0461 i 0. 0494 19. 44 1983..75 0,.0492 c. 0730 54,.22 = Q.-, 20-24 0.0527 2 0.0543 19.77 1982.62 0.0 462 Cu2579 .cø i= 25-29 0.0561 3 0.0549 20.17 1980.97 0.0428 C.)619 4-. 0 13 30-34 0.0571 ' 0.0576 20.48 1978.98 0.0402 0.0574 63,83 35-39 0.0735 A) 0.0785 19.74 1976.72 0,0465 0.0683 64.98 6G. Z1 40-44 0.0784 15 M 0825 19.86 1974.21 0. 0454 0. 0665 65. 28 6. 4-49 0.0720 20 £ .0742 20.71 1971.32 0.0382 0.0538 67 47 6 Averags Level, Ages 20-34 20.14 0.0471 0.0623 6. i Mads Lif Table Family is: 8OUTH ASE PROP. ASE q(x) MORT. REF. **** E0UIVALENT VALUIES 3ROUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q (1) q(3) e<(O) a( 1 S n-f children is BOTH F' (1) /P (2) =0.136 ; 2/P) = 15-19 0.0461 i 0.0479 22.54 1987.76 0.0478 0.0571 71 G- 20-24 0.0527 2 0.0566 22.19 1982.61 0.0511 0.0618 70.54 6= 25-29 0.0561 3 0. 0582 22.28 1980.89 0.0502 0. 0606 71.27 30-34 0.0571 5 0.0593 22.39 1978.77 0.0492 C.0592 71.A4 Q6 35-39 0.0735 10 0.0774 21.30 1976.37 0.0595 00743 73 40-44 0.0784 15 0.0809 21.23 1973.68 0.0602 .0753 38.51 Lz 45-49 0.0720 20 0.0733 21.88 1970. 537 0. 0540 0. ~ -.18 63 Average Level , Ages 20-34 : 22.29 0. 0502 0.71. 1E 63. Model Life Table Family is: EAST ASE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EcUIVALENT VALUES *** 3ROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) e (0) w( 10 Sex --f children is BOTH P(1)/P'(2) = 0. 176 ; P(2) /F'(3) 0. 419 15-19 0.0461 1 0.0508 20.64 1983.74 0.0506 0.557 66.76 bl.= 20-24 0.0527 2 0.0564 20.57 1982.56 0.0515 0.0609 66.58 01.1 25-29 0.0561 3 0.0573 20.65 1980.79 0.0505 0.0596 66.77 61.25 30-34 0.0571 5 0.0583 20. 74 1978.63 0. 0493 0. 67, GC b 15 35-39 0.0735 10 0.0765 19.92 1976.19 0.0598 0. 0717 65. 02 . -2 40-4n 0.0734 15 0.0803 19,20, 1973,41 0. 599 0. 0719 *4. A..7 42-49 0.0720 20 0.0731 20.58 1970.19 0.0514 0.007 6é.60 61.14 Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 20.65 0.0505 0.0595 66.78 61.:4 108 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY SUL RURAL Eti mat ion o÷F child mortalijty -From p.roport ions of children dead M'ode Life Table Family is: WEST AGE PRP. ASE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EOUIVALENT VALUE 3ROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(1) q.5, e" Sex of children is BOTH P1)/F(2) = 0.136 ;, P(2)/P( ) = 'C- 15-19 0.0461 1 0.0505 19.59 1983.74 0.0502 W.0656 64.51 57.=5 20-24 0. 0527 2 0.0565 19.68 1982.57 0.0493 0.0641 64.74 59 25-29 0.0561 3 0.0571 19.8- 1980.33 O:.0472 C.C)610 -.22 w9,8 3C-34 0.0571 5 0.0585 20.05 1978.72 0.0454 0. 0582 65.65 35-39 0.0735 10 0.0765 19,33 1976.36 0. 0529 0.0698 63.7 40-44 0.0784 15 0.0807 19.37 1973. 74 0.0525 0. 0692 3.97 45-49 0.0720 20 0.0736 20. 11 1970.77 (.0448 0.0573 65,8 Average Level, Ages 20-34 19.87 0.0473 0.0611 65.21 Table A.8A: Anatysis of Brazil 1984 PNAD Survey Data on Fertility and Child MortaLity by the P/F Ratio Method and Brass Child Survival Technique, Using the AFEKOPC Package: North Region, Urban Population only. BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY NORTH CURBAN ONLY3 T e ~ ptions selected are as fo ows: tDIndex sae Description Number Selected Tp enf Analysis 1 2 Both Fert S. Mort E1 Badry Correction 2 1 No El Badry Corr. Treatment o:f N.S.CEB 3 1 ignore N.8. women Life Table Family 4 1 C-D Family - AlI Sex Ratio it Birth 5 105.0 Census or Survey Date 6 1984.76 The basic data entered are as follows: 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 1 FEMFOP 214984 183311 150876 128036 92279 7650 'J 2 CEBT 40930 189319 338024 422419 408333 6 BIR-CUR 17948 37548 30916 18195 804 14 CHSURVT 38174 19,077 319444 396752 379870 ·34667 110 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY NORTH [URBAN ONLY] C.alculatior cf P/F Ratios for ALL births AGE WOMEN CEB ANNUAL AVERAGE FERTILITY CUMULATED P( GRFUP BIRTHS PARITY RATES FERTILITY SURVEY 15-19 214984 40930 17948 0.190 0.OS3 0.182 20-24 183311 189319 37548 1.033 0.205 1,007 25-29 150876 338024 30916 2.240 0.205 2.079 30-34 128036 422419 18195 3.299 142 2.913 35-39 92279 408333 8804 4.425 0.095 3.476 40-44 76350 383357 3853 5.021 0.050 3. 834 45-49 56514 347722 324 6.153 0.006 3.928 1.56, Reported and adjusted age-specific fertility rates for true age gr,ups Factors are : Colimn 2, no adjLstment; 4, P(2)/F(2); 4, P (3)/1F (3) ; 5, Average of F(2)/F(2) and P(3)/F(3) 6, Average of P(2)/F(2) F(3)/F(3) and P'4/F(4 ASE GROUIP f(i) f(i) f(i) f(i'' -f,i, Factor: 1.000 1.026 1.078 1.052 1.079 15-19 0. 1010 0.1036 0. 1089 0. 1062 0. 1090 20-24 0.2094. 0.2149 0.2257 0.2203 0.2259 25-29 0.2001 0.2054 0.2158 0.2106 0.2160 30-34 0.1366 0.1401 0.1472 0.1437 0.1473 35-39 0.0916 0.0939 0.0987 C).0963 0.0988 40-44 0.0441 0.0453 0.0475 0.0464 0.0476 45-49 0. 0041 0. 0042 0. 0044 0. 004. 0. 0044 TUTAL FERTILITY 3.9347 4.0373 4.2411 4.1392 4.2449 111 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY NORTH EURBAN ONLYJ Estimation of child mortality -From propertions of children dead M_del Life Table Family is: NORTH AOE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EOUIVALENT LU'ES *** GROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(v q(35 B(O) e(10) Sex -F chiIdren is BOTH P1)/P(2) = 0.184 ; PF2)/P(3) = 0.461 15-19 0.0673 i 0.0649 17.76 1983.57 k.0646 0. t002 60.2 57.72 20-24 0.0488 2 0.0481 20.33 1982.35 0.0415 0.0595 66.5 ei=29 5-29 0 . 0550 3, 0.0527 20. 34 1980.66 C1. 0413 0.93 26. il,70 30-34 0.0608 5 .0608 20.26 1978.67 0.0420 W0605 6629 Q1.= 35-39 O 0X697 10 0 . 0742 19.98 1976.46 0.0444 C). 64 6. ---, 7 -,j 40-44 0.0952 13 0.1000 18.97 1974.00 .0533 0.0803 63.04 59.3B 45-49 9.1102 . 1213 18.46 1971.16 0. 0580 0. 0,6 1 77 8 6 Aversge Level, Ages 20-34 : 20.31 0. 0416 0. 0598 .4 1 1 Mcdel Life Table Family is: SOUTH AGE PROP. AGE q(x) MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT VALUES 3RCUP DEAD LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) e(O) eC(10 Sex o-F children is 5OTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.184 ; P(2)/PC3) 15-19 0.0673 1 0.0626 21.00 1983.58 0.0624 .0786 7 - 4- X 20-24 0.0488 2 0.0503 22.74 1982. 3:3 0. 0460 -.0546 72.29 25-29 0.0550 3 0.0561 22.45 1980.56 0.0487 0.0584 7i.-8 3 30-34 0.0608 5 C.0627 22.14 1978.45 0.0516 0.062b 70.20 v== 35-39 0.0697 10 C.0733 21.57 1976.09 0.0570 0.0705 9& 40-44 0 . 0952 15 ). ?0980 20. 21 1973.46 0. 0699 0. 0906 66. 2 45-49 0 . 1180 20 0. 1198 19.30 1970.37 0.0787 0. 15 63 , 2 -1. Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 22.44 0.0488 0.0585 71.56 . Model Life Table Family is: EAST AGE PROP. AGE qøx) MORT. REF. **** EQUIVALENT VPLUES *** GROUP DEAD x LEVEL DATE q(1) q(5) e(O) a(10) Sex of children is BOTH P(1)/P(2) = 0.184 ; F'(2)/F'(3) = 0.461 15-19 0.0673 1 0.0686 19.25 1983.55 0.0683 0.:840 63.40 59.56 20-24 0.0488 2 0.0508 20.95 1982.27 0.0467 0.0547 67.50 b1.61 25-29 0.0550 3 0.0555 20.76 1980.46 0.0490 0. 0577 67.05 6i. - 70-34 0.0608 5 0.0618 20.53 1978.31 00520 0.0613 66.50 L.09 35-39 0.0697 10 0.0724 20.14 1975.91 0.0569 0.0679 65.55 50.59 zo-na 0.0952 15 0.973 17.09 -1973.21 0. 0703 0.86.9 63.01 59.8 15-49 0.1180 20 0.1195 18.42 1970.03 0.0791 0(0996 61.41 58.3 Average Level, Ages 20-34 : 20.75 0.0492 0.0579 67.02 61.36 112 BRAZIL 1984 PNAD SURVEY NORTH [URBAN ONLYJ Est:imation c+ child mortality ur.-pcotin Fcidrr : d Medel Li fo Table Family is: WEST IE PROP. WSE q ( MORT. FIEF. **** EQUIVALEN W GRDUF DEAD LEVEL DATE q (1? q 5) en of children is BOTH P (1) /P (2) = C. 184 P(2) /P(3. 15-19 0. 0673 1 0. 0670 18.03 1983. 56 0, 066 7 0 . 0915 6) , 7 20-24 0.0488 2 0. .0506 20. 14 1982.2 9 0 0445 0. 0569 .55. i. 5 25-29 0. 0550 3 0.0552 20.01 1980.50 0 . 0439 0.0588 65.5 70-34 C). 0608 5 0.0619 19.84 1978. SC) O. 0476 0. 0615 5. 35-39 0.0697 10 0.0724 19.57 1976.09 0.0504 0.0660 64.46 40-44 0.0952 15 0.0977 18.49 1973. 54 C. 0618 0.0837 61.81 45-49 0. 1180 20 0. 1201 17.87 1970. 0. 0685 Ca 0943 å0 i- Average Leve! , Ages 20-34 20. 00 9 C460 0. 0590 65. 72 113 TALI A.9 BRAZIL: Northeast Rgion Population Projection Optilatic Variant BRAZIL NORTHEAST OPTIMISTIC PROJECTION Name of Input Data File : BZNEOPAS.PRJ Set Options in Effect Number of Cases 2 Population Units 1's Projection Period Start Year 19e0; End Year : 2015; Number of Periods Options : INITMI = 0 ; IWDR = 0 Output Options in Effect : (a) Special Age Groups Lower Age Limit Upper Age Limit 0 4 7 14 18 28 15 64 15 49 (b) Single- Years of Age Fr.mm To None Requested :Z: i.7-le Ca'endar Years From To None Requested .-. L.~'IUt~~i~d~er * 114 BRAZIL NORTHEAST URBAN OPTIMISTIC Input Data As Read INPUT POPULATIONI Reference Date : 31/ 8/1980 MALES 1271956. 1145138. 1t12966. 1004009. 748235. 571134. 480264. 395014. 364092. 276762. 256799. 206003. 158037. 140014. 198457. 0. Total 8340529. FEMALES 1251600. 1139504. 1173234. 1135731. 880707. 686988. 563056. 467506. 424713. 330137. 303265. 232986. 188481. 169153. 265705. 0. Total 9225035. FERTILITY (a) Fertility Options IFERT = 5 Sex Ratio at Birth = 105.00 Year in which NRR Reaches 1.0 - 2000 Type of Fertility Decline to Replacement = I Year Decline to Replacement Starts = 1990 Total Fertility in Period Prior to Projection = 0.00 Period Total Fert Age-Specific Fertility Rates 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 4.0000 . 0000 o.0.o o.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 2 I.00-to .0 0000 0. 0000 0.000 0. 000 0.0000 0. )0000 . .0 00 0. o0000 o 0.00 O.ooo o.oo0 0.o00o 0.0 C 4 o.0. oo000 0.0000 o.0000 0. 0000 0.0000 0.o000 0.0000 5 0. 0* . .00000 0. 0000 0. 0000 o. f"00 ). 0000 0. 000 6 . . . . 000.:),)DO ) 0. 20 ,ø. 0000 0. øooo ø0. (0000 u. 000 7i,< . -*i .15 MIGRATION (a) Options IMIS = 4 KMIG = 1 TMG.MAL 919271.00 894471.00 419154.00 420304.00 204467.00 207466.00 209012.00 TMG.FEM 953628.00 925427.00 433578.00 435430.00 214011.00 218695.00 222748.00 NMG.MAL 11 204720.00 117109.00 90586.00 108222.00 97750.00 67669.00 NMG.MAL 12 55318400 58193.00 61560.00 58276.00 50995.00 46148.00 NMG.MAL 13 34040.DO 17020.00 12765.00 4254.00 NMG.FEM 11 204792.00 146963.00 132914.00 153128.00 137516.00 89381.00 NMG.FEM 12 56246.00 50139.00 52603.00 49697.00 42952.00 39572.00 NMS.FEM 13 31569.00 15784.00 11838.00 3946.00 NMG.MAL 21 0.,00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NMG.MAL 22 0.00 0.00 .0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NMS.MAL 23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NMG.FEM 21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NMG.FEM 22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NMG.FEM 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NMS.MAL 31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NMG. MAL =2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00- NMG.MAL 33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NMG.FEM 31 0.00 0.00 0.00 o.00 0.00 o.00 NMG.EM 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0. NMG.FEM 3 0.00 0.00 0.00 o.00 NMG.MAL 41 0.00 0.00 0.0o 0.00 0.00 0.00 NMG.MAL 42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0. 00 NMG.MAL 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NMG. FEM 41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NMG.FEM 42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NMG.FEM 4 30 0.00 0.00 0.00 NMG.MAL 51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ;NMS.MAL 52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 `:1 . MAL Z3 '.. .00 0. ".1).0 000 0. 3. MAL 7. 0.0 0 . .AL±0.0.0 .0 0.00 .0.0 D rD 0. CO N .00 ;1C.1~*.. ~ ~.. -*..* ~ o. o 0.~o . c 116 BRAZIL NORTHEAST URBAN OPTIMISTIC ASE SROUP 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 .MA2S 0-4 1265169 1549944 1731132 1658237 1580379 1607791 1691174 1767193 5-9 1140157 1355930 163470 1749242 1688570 1559237 1625902 1710228 10-14 1111026 1219770 1432266 1664779 1780241 1700563 1603319 1640478 15-19 999856 1184909 1290807 1460012 1692385 1788761 1711325 1615255 20-24 740318 1071719 1253409 1314490 1414161 16%197 1795001 1719186 25-29 565512 795198 1119608 1264419 1328040 1482593 1696880 1796062 30-34 477133 604763 529103 1122564 1268574 132270 1480146 1693663 35-39 392069 513366 637625 833944 1124807 1260713 1318454 1475225 40-44 362474 431578 549020 645096 839120 1114960 1252325 1310604 45-49 273746 400552 466871 554986 649819 825326 1100065 1235879 50-54 255546 307612 428119 467926 553528 634798 808380 1071965 55-59 204151 281043 329640 421136 459155 530311 607728 773000 60-64 156475 220778 290864 316717 400087 426255 491071 563176 65-69 139602 158292 214467 263087 285202 351552 373776 431382 70-74 95576 125392 141126 171645 217105 230839 283027 302122 75+ 101608 125017 158623 178904 213606 252591 278570 328884 TOTAL 9290420 10344863 12507386 14094186 15564778 16818358 18117143 19434304 FEKALES 0-4 1245732 1492379 664149 1595362 1519720 1546757 1626647 1699016 5-9 1134877 1335628 1579116 1683959 1628205 1531998 1569364 1650490 10-14 1172852 1228947 1426287 1612756 1721695 1644799 1553241 1591392 15-!9 1133055 1269215 1323145 1463185 1651613 1737511 1665276 1574989 20-24 872137 1228838 1361481 358516 1500984 1665183 1755380 1684777 2-Y680486 944448 129867 1351144 1383263 1507306 1675233 1766350 Z-34 559006 72431 98099S 1297720 133699 131212 1509032 1677118 51-39 4645C5 863T:2 746380 980569 1295561 1380137 377759 1505722 423159 490977 609700 747054 ?74 125:444 1371993 1371039 -271% 448715 51446 61525 746659 7224 1269534 1358073 2-54 3056 9809 46362 51e26 606782 72359 949801 1245810 :5-59 49 4577!6 503!65 8777 7:0729 921210 -49:38 49095 47659 55397 7 18=1 -835 23"44 29608 320544 98256 44494 50996. 2-74 126999 48:32 1638! :?5530 248920 27394 37697 :69858 17614 64!49 19554 2163:5 53457 310560 37186 4 12TAL 166779 11151648 12367:7 14756701 16:876:5 17421574 1872176: 20034535 T2TAL m+F 17447160 V496510 2574414 285088 31752412 34239932 3688904 :9468940 RELATED TICATORS MIRTH RåTE *3.5 3.7 25.6 21.5 20.0 19.2 18.6 :EATH RATE 1:.: 9.1 8.0 7.4 6.9 7.1 RATS 2F NAT. IN. .å4 2.6 1.65 1.35 1.26 1. 1.15 EMTH RATS 4.17 :.61 2.28 1.92 1.51 1.46 1.38 .0TAL FERTLiTY 4.000 2.474 2.850 2.405 2.248 2.168 2.157 HRR !.9!! l.i94 :.,90 1.173 1.096 1.058 1.052 NR 1.541 :J2 1.178 1.32 1.000 1.000 1.000 117 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 I - "ALE 106.0 97.5 92.6 67.8 52.9 35.0 35.2 å" - FEALE 94.9 87.1 72.4 57.8 43.1 28.5 26.2 INR - BOTH SEIES 100.6 92.4 77.7 62.9 48.1 33.4 30.8 EC) - "ALE 56.03 58.07 60.11 62.34 64.56 66.85 67.54 E ) - FEMALE 56.61 59.09 61.83 64.69 67.68 70.81 71.49 EV0) - BOTH SEXES 56.32 4 58.57 60.9 63.49 66.09 68.78 69.46 E(10) • MALE 56.67 57.66 58.32 5B.98 59.66 60.34 60.77 Et10)-FEALE 56.04 58.27 59.53 60.84 62.18 63.57 64.02 NET KISRaTS-mALE 919271 894470 419154 420804 204466 207468 209012 HET NISR TS-FEMALE 958628 925427 433578 435429 214010 218694 222748 HET MIERATIN RATE 19.4 15.5 6.3 5.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 AVs. MN. IIRTHS 650422 721989 697332 651141 659015 60405 709013 OF WHICH: MOTHERS C0 89749 79620 65415 58507 58392 56552 53567 TERS 20-34 499569 570048 561785 519694 520039 541047 569365 W0THERS 35+ 70904 72313 70131 72942 80585 2806 96081 AVS. ANN. DEATHS 21613 236446 246525 242085 245207 245843 269379 OF NHICM: INFANT DEATHS 65436 66729 54156 40957 31724 22709 21870 DEATHS AE 1+ 150696 169717 192369 201128 213484 223134 247508 BROAD AGE EROUPS NUNBERS MALES 0-14 3516352. 4124644. 4799104. 5072257. 5049189. 4897591. 4920394. 5117898. 15-64 4427281. 5511516. 7195065. 8401290. 9799676. 11085784. 12261375. 13254018. 65+ 336796. 408702. 514216. 620639. 715913. 834982. 93374. 1062388. FEALES 0-14 353461. 405695 . 468551. ..4892006. 4869620. 4723543. 4749252. 494089. 15-64 5179769. 59905. 7980407. 9158943. 10495094. 11715822. 12543133. 13780599. 65 4335. 495636. 58'779. 705752. 822920. 979209. !129379. 1313037. 25-49 4459564. 590975. Z5K0039. 7839713. 8946153. 992016. !0624206. 0938067. STH Si :4 72i9:4. !s15?5. 9466i2. 9964264. 9918!0. 9521134. 9659646. 10058797. 5-64 9675. "*"7 1 75473. 75632. 20294770. 2204606. 25104508. 2703416. - 9. 4. ! . 2391. 15383. 1314192. :4751. :W754:. å .35.99 :2.44 29.2 7.6 -14 5:.47 56.1 57.53 59.61 62.% 65.91 67.68 68.20 65+ 4.07 :.95 4.11 4.40 4.60 4.95 5.16 5.47 0-14 35.75 51.38 3w.27 3.15 30.05 27.11 25.37 24.66 15-64 56.51 59.15 60.29 62.07 64.83 67.27 6.60 6.78 65+ 4.'7 4.44 4.44 4.78 V.08 5.62 6.03 6.55 25-49 45.5Z 51.3 51.;0 53.13 55.27 56.9 56.75 54.60 S0T H 21 0-14 40.52 3.06 U67 34.54 31.24 25.10 26.25 25.49 .5-64 5.só 57.77 53.95 60.37 63.92 66.60 68..5 68.50 1.42 4.21 4.2 4.60 4.85 1.30 5.60 5.02 31.6 7.2 69.6 54.3 56.5 50.1 46.7 46.3 118 FERTILITY RATES BY PERIOD PERIOD 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 TOT SEI EAN FERTILITY RATIO AT DIRTH AGE 1 0.0748 0.2041 10.2145 0.1645 0.0963 0.0392 0.0067 4.00 105.0 28.42 2 0.0614 0.1822 0.1917 0.1437 0.0804 0.0305 0.0047 3.47 105.0 28.29 3 0.0470 0.1544 0.1626 0.1188 0.0628 0.0216 0.0029 2.85 105.0 28.13 4 0.0376 0.1332 0.1404 0.100O 0.0512 0.0161 0.0018 2.41 105.0 28.02 5 0.0345 0.1254 '0.1322 0.0943 0.0472 0.0144 0.0015 2.25 105.0 27.98 6 0.0332 0.1210 0.1276 0.0910 0.0455 -0.0139 0.0014 2.17 105.0 27.98 7 0.0331 0.1204 0.1269 0.0905 0.0453 -0.0138 0.0014 2.16 105.0 27.9e LIFE-TABLE SURVIVORSHIP PROBABILITIES 1(1) BY SEX, AfE AND PERIOD NALES PERIOD 1(1) 1(5) 1(10) 1(15) 1(20) 1(25) 1(301 1(35) 1(40) 1(45) 1(50) 1(55) 1(60) 1(65) 1(70) 1(75) 1180) 1 .89397 .84682 .83725 .83118 .82089 .80426 .78571 .76626 .74493 .71971 .68940 .64914 .59937 .53196 .44335 .33298 .21:11 2 .90249 .86351 .85564 .85033 .54108 .82575 .80833 .79001 .76989 .74599 .71699 .67774 .62887 .56169 .47213 .35909 .23174 3 .91736 .88568 .87866 .87379 .86528 .85152 .83613 .81977 .80143 .77900 .75060 .71124 .66006 .58907 .49408 .37419 .23981 4 .93223 .90811 .90t98 .89760 .88986 .87780 .86457 .85034 .83395 .81316 .78548 .74609 .69251 .61754 .51683 .38976 .24f04 5 .94710 .93079 .92562 .92174 .91484 .90457 .59366 .89173 .86747 .84849 .82166 .78234 .72628 .64714 .54042 .40580 .25644 6 .96197 .95374 .94956 .94622 .94021 .93185 .92341 .91395 .90201 .88503 .85918 .82004 .76139 .67789 .56487 .42233 .26500 7 .96477 .95742 .95359 .95049 .94486 .93705 .92919 .92038 .90920 .89315 .86136 .83043 .77291 .69039 .57771 .43434 .2746C FE"ALES PERIOD 1l>) !5) 1i10) 1(15) 1(20) 1(25) 1(30) 1(35) 1(40) 1(45) 1(50) 1(55) 1(60) 1(65) 1(70) 1(75) 1(80) .96209 .~e9! .84324 .3194 .81999 20143 .78574 .76598 .74383 .71840 .69043 .65497 .60997 .54758 .46158 .3060 .2264: .91292 .87560 .S6249 .85281 .54142 .82750 .81163 .79392 .7794 .75045 .72418 .69012 .64667 .5545 .49945 .38593 .2502 S 92757 .9755 .88679 .87878 .86911 ..5710 .84330 .52775 .80992 .78850 .76352 .73043 .6711 .62529 .53708 .41835 .27B4 4 .94221 .91975 .91146 .90524 .59740 .88745 .37589 .6270 .54724 .82814 .80466 .77275 .7"975 .66753 .57725 .4r324 .308 -.9366 .94220 .93652 .93 .20 16 .90942 .9880 .88594 .86943 .84766 .2178 .77470 .71229 .6201! .49076 .=121 . 96490 .?696 .96 .?9B2 .?3044 .94390 .9627 .?å606 .9124 .89262 .621 .8:206 .71971 .81 .53'3 7 =.97"6 .967.9 ?! . . 7 .£94 .94.26 .93256 .91972 .90079 .87304 .848 .77155 .6781 .S4442 PE.14t 0-4 5-9 2-:4 15-1@ 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-9 43-44 4!-49 50-54 "-59 0-64 5-69 7.`-4 ::: tstit9235.41677t9173.2824,77r732. 684684.624931 227. 0149391. 6743220.65'91:~2180.51442523018946 2 :m*t::i96577.74704.678924E.77806!2. 7055805.4345619.77479?0.7750767.444059. 1842054.6738057.4428072. 1814036.09:0527.07:3e 3 79114.1745256.8435007.024:822. 46 775.32610.732377.6722488.722379. 9022520.8019707.051'833.9213154.78 6577.29 4933.04164 4 6603.28 4952.46165 2.9076.691176.724.618427.-412736.5510428.2210970.2011604.9210985.84 9613.27 8699.54 6417.02 3208.51 2406.22 SC 6 29159.3222400.7117327.:720700.8018697.7012943.7810581.2711!31.211177.2511147.08 9754.37 8827.23 6511.20 3255.60 2441.70 81 7 39450.4522567.4217t 6 . 4 3 6.8'340.110660.2 145 6.8811230.04 9826.96 5892.92 6559.66 3279.83 2439.57 23 FEMLES PERIOD 0-4 !-9 10-14 15-19 0-24 5-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 1 !!ttttt ttttttttti it:08.443.392.216.598.337.011.342.321.29309. 1731C 2 .3986.76299 3 7238.7753 2270.6247273.7954463.!44891.9.7.220003.121722.6818709.4117675.8315276.8214074.6511228.21 5613.93 4210.444: 4 7:!49.9!52493.94747.754695.974919.031926.120090.581708.8518789.3317751.3315342.0814134.7711276. 17 5637.91 422.4324C S35932.7025800.4023734. 026882.71 24:41. 921691. 47 9874.S 9 8802.08 9234.83 8724.66 7540.3 6947.15 5542.16 2770.99 2078.23 67 6 36779.5926365.0923844.7127471.0924670.016034.9110090.50 8994.73 9436.95 8915.62 7705.57 7099.20 5563.46 2831.64 2123.73 73 7 J7420.4726853.7:24286.612790.:02127!632.08102'7.! 9:61.43 061.24 9080.85 7842.37 7230.76 5768.42 2894.12 163.09 72 119 BRAZIL NORTHEA3T URBAN OPTIMISTIC POPULATION BY SPECIAL ABE 6RUPS FOR SELECTE1 YEARS; UNI75 ONE'S ;PAE 1 AGE GROUP 1980 19 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0- 4 1265169 1549945 1731132 1658237 150379 1607791 1691174 1767193 7-14 1787649 2019201 2394266 270640 2820475 2657179 2563535 2649072 15-18 818341 951653 1035637 11565 1372746 1439991 135401 . 1287470 15-28 1575153 2197512 2680733 289462 320317! 3604515 3M0595 381674S 15-64 4427281 5811516 7195066 8401290 979 76 11015784 12261375 13254013 15-49 3811108 5002084 6146443 7195511 8386905 9494420 --10351 10~4577 TOTAL 8280420 10344163 12507386 14094186 15564778 16918358 18117144 19434304 EALES 0- 4 1245733 1492379 1664149 1595362 1519720 .1546757 1626647 169016 7-14 1851326 2015641 2353834 2610774 2721848 2565252 2477910 2563107 15-18 923020 1011938 1056368 1185765 1337723 139625 1318203 1255681 18-28 1858553 2520499 2947575 3029741 3246182 3568751 3801005 3742333 15-64 5179771 6599059 7980408 9158943 10495094 11718822 12843133 13780599 15-49 4459566 5690975 6830040 7839713 8946153 9922016 10624206 10938067 TOTAL 9166739 11151648 13236737 14756701 16187635 17421574 18721762 20034534 BOTH S1 0- 4 2510902 3042324 339528! 3253600 3100100 3154547 3317821 3466208 7-14 3638976 4034842 4748100 5317173 5542323 5223131 5041445 5212179 15-18 1741361 - 13591 2092005 2371329 2710469 2839616 2672295 2543151 18-28 3433706 4718011 5628308 5924423 6450057 7173265 7681600 7559075 15-64 9607052 12410575 15175473 17560233 20294770 2280406 25104508 2703417 15-49 S270675 10693359 1976483 15035225 17333057 19416436 20978402 21783944 TCTAL 17447159 Z1496511 45744123 28.50887 31752413 34239932 36838906 39468838 120 BRAZIL NORTHEAST URBAN OPTIMISTIC .AE SRouP 1980 19 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 MALES 0-4 1528 1499 1384 1177 1015 äL 93 909 5-9 1377 1311 1307 1241 105 f 897 10-14 1342 1178 1145 111 1144 1aS- , M4 15-19 1207 1145 1032 1036 1017 1066 94-- 831 20-24 894 1036 1002 933 954 M100 991 85 25-29 683 769 895 897 53 2- 9M • 924 30-34 576 585 663 796 815 787 817 871 35-39 473 496 510 592 723 750 728 759 40-44 438 417 439 458 539 663 691 674 45-49 331 37 373 394 417 493 607 636 50-54 309 297 342 332 356 377 446 552 55-59 247 272 264 299 295 315 335 399 60-64 189 213 233 225 257 253 271 290 65-69 169 153 171 187 183 209 206 222 70-74 115 121 113 127 139 137 156 155 75+ 123 121 127 127 137 150 154 169 TTAL 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 FEMALES 0-4 1359 1338 1257 1081 939 m 869 849 5-9 1239 1198 1192 1141 1006 e79 838 824 10-14 1279 1102 1079 1093 1064 944 830 794 15-19 1236 1138 1000 992 1020 997 889 786 20-24 951 1102 1029 921 927 956 938 841 5-29 742 347 977 936 855 865 895 882 510 648 741 879 858 793 806 837 07 56 564 664 800 792 736 752 40-44 462 440 461 506 605 737 733 684 45-49 57 432 :89 414 461 555 678 678 14 55 347 35420 062 -, - 24 10311 337 :30 460 .-4:3 ~ 24: åw7 271 :94 -,9 5-69 184 164 175 199 199 229 232 255 -74 1:9 1-3 1,2 13 154 155 180 1Mc 7!' 10 147 147 147 157 178 191 216 TTAL 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 121 BRAZIL NORTHEAST URBAN OPTIMISTIC POPULATION BY SPECIAL ASE BRDUPS FOR SELECTE YEARS; UNITS 8 PER100003' ;PAUE 1 AEE GROUP 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 MALES 0- 4 1528 1498 1384 1177 1015 956 933 909 7-14 2159 1952 1914 1920 1812 1580 1415 1363 !!-18 989 920 828 841 882 856 747 662 :8-28 1902 2124 2143 2054 2058 2143 2142 1964 :5-64 5347 5618 5753 5961 6296 6591 6768 6820 5-49 4603 4835 4914 5105 538 5645 5715 5581 I »!ALEE ;- 4 15= 133. 7081 93?9 88 869 848 7-14 2120 1807 :778 1769 1681 1472 1 =4 :279 1!-1, 1017 907 798 804 326 803 704 627 227 22: 27 235 204 203V 1868 I!-64 <65 392 . C29 6207 483 6727 680 ±878 -9 465 5695 56755460 4 1439 1415 1319 1128 976 21 901 878 7-14 208± :977 1044 1843 1745 1525 1369 132! 2-2 998 913 813 822 854 829 725 644 18-28 921 2186 2053 2031 2095 2085 19!5 :5-64 5506 577: 5895 6087 6392 6660 6815 6850 :5-49 4740 4974 541 5.11 5459 567! 5695 5519 122 BRAZIL NORTHEAST RURAL OPTIMISTIC Input Data As Read : INPUT POPULATION Reference Date : 31/ 8/1980 MALES 1505827. 13358Z6. 1211252. 967567. 643827. 505295. 441700. Z90895. 361098. 276050. 259921. 215350. 175634. 171468. 216456. 0. Total 8695697. FEMALES 1490964. 1301583. 1165146. 921580. 666326. 528285. 452538. 406327. 365847. 281274. 249235. 193743. 158661. 148227. 203466. 0. Total 8549817. FERTILITY (a) Fertility Options IFERT = 5 Sex Ratio at Birth = 105.00 Year in which NRR Reaches 1.0 2005 Type of Fertility Decline to Replacement = 2 Year Decline to Replacement Starts = 1985 Total Fertility in Period Prior to Projection = 0.00 Period Total Fert Age-Specific Fertility Rates 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 Z5-Z9 40-44 45-49 i 0.;'000 0.00C ,00 C). 0000 C). 0000 0. 00C0 O.0000 0.0000 2 .:!. 0D00 0. OOOO O.0000 O. 0000 0.0000 0. c000 0. 0000 0.* : 0 0. oc:000 c ~ c0..00- o000 0. C O.Ci0 G.0 4 0,0;00 0. OXOO C,.00 C .-0CI0C0.0000.D0 . 0 . 0000 0. co000 C 0 0. 0t00 0. . 000 C . 0000 7. 0000 0. C.(D0( 0.0 0 0 o. 0000 0. 00 0. 0 C .00 MORTALITY 123 (a) Options IMORT = 4 Coale-Demeny Family for Males : 0 ; for Females : 0 Period when minimum mortality reached for Males : -1 ; for Females : -1 ,b) Assumptions SPLT.MAL 1 16.00 2 20 16.70 1 0 0.00 0 3PLT.FZM 1 16.00 2 5 15.00 1 0 0.00 0 SPLT.MAL 2 16.96 2 20 17.47 1 0 0.00 0 SPLT.FEM 2 16.96 2 5 16.05 1 0 0.00 0 SPLT.MAL 7P 17.92 2 20 18.23 1 0 0.00 0 SPLT.FEM 3 17.92 2 5 17.10 1 0 0.00 0 SPLT.MAL 4 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 SPLT.FEM 4 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 SPLT.MAL 5 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 SPLT.FEM 5 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 SPLT.MAL 6 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 SPLT.FEM 6 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 SPLT.MAL 7 21.30 4 20 21.30 4 0 0.00 0 SPLT.FEM 7 21.30 4 5 21.30 4 0 0.00 0 MIGRATION 124 (a) Options : IMIG = 3 ; KMIG = 1 RMG.MAL 11 -34.540 -24.270 -25.460 -31.070 -37.060 -41.130 RMS.MAL 12 -36.700 -26.670 -17.400 -13.960 -10.180 -6.670 RMG.MAL 13 1.320 1.320 1.320 1.320 RMG.FEM 11 -34.110 -25.840 -27.300 -31.970 -37.310 -40.600 RMS.FEM 12 -34.880 -27.200 -22.040 -21.260 -20.050 -25.010 RMG.FEM 13 -10.310 -10.310 -10.310 -10.310 RMG.MAL 21 -34.540 -24.270 -25.460 -31.070 -37.060 -41.180 RMG.MAL 22 -36.700 -26.670 -17.400 -13.960 -10.180 -6.670 RMS.MAL 23 1.320 1.320 1.320 1.320 RMS.FEM 21 -34.110 -25.840 -27.300 -31.970 -37.310 -40.600 RMS.FEM 22 -34.880 -27.200. -22.040 -21.260 -20.050 -25.010 RMG.FEM 23 -10.310 -10.310 -10.310 -10.310 RMS.MAL 31 -17.270 -12.140 -12.730 -15.540 -18.530 -20.590 RMG.MAL 32 -18.350 -13.340 -8.700 -6.980 -5.090 -3.340 .RMG.MAL 3 1.320 1.3 1. 1.320 1.320 RMG.FEM 31 -17.060 -12.920 -13.650 -15.990 -18.660 -20.300 RMS.FEM 32 -17.440 -13.600 -11.020 -10.630 -10.030 -12.510 RMS.FEM 33 -5.160 -5.160 -5.160 -5.160 'MS.MAL 41 -17.270 -12.140 -12.730 -15.540 -18.530 -20.590 RMS.MAL 42 -19.350 -13.340 -E.700 -6.990 -5.090 -3.340 RMG.MAL 43 1.320 1.320 1.320 1.320 RMS.FEM 41 -17.060 -12.920 -13.650 -15.990 -18.660 -20.300 RMG.FEM 42 -17.440 -13.600 -11.020 -10.630 -10.030 -12.510 RMG.FEM 43 -5.160 -5.160 -5.160 -5.160 RMG.MAL 51 -3.640 -6.070 -6.370 -7.770 -9.270 -10. 300 RMS.MAL 52 -9.180 -6.670 -4.350 -3.490 -2.550 -1.670 RMS.MAL 53 1.320 1.320 1.320 1.320 RMS.FEM 51 -8.530 -6.460 -6.S30 -7.990 -9.330 -10.150 RMG.FEM 52 -S.720 -6.800 -5.510 -5.320 -5.010 -6.250 RMS. FEM 53 -.560 -2.580 -2. 530 -2.560 M1.MAL 61 -8.640 -6.070 -6.370 -7.770 -9.270 -10.300 F.MS. MAL 62 -. 180 -6. 670 --4. 350 -3.490 -2. 550 -1.670 N.MAL 63 1.320 1.320 i.320 1.320 -2. 370 --6. 460 -6.5370 -7. 990 -9. 3 -1Q . 1:0 i.FE ±2 -3. 720 -6.300 -2.:. -5.320 -5.s )-.250 . FEM 6z - 2.--2 S30 -2. 5S0 -2. 530 125 BRAZIL NORTHEAST RURAL OPTIMISTIC ABE GROUP 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 IALES 0-4 1510681 1455301 1356125 1204675 993756 874508 852277 880927 5-9 1343208 1206551 1175566 1216647 1091581 939829 830305 812843 10-14 1215731 1158203 1035784 1098506 1135179 1053703 907638 801290 15-19 96777 1025148 982436 950247 100198 108498 1012436 872543 20-24 641299 770310 82730 83954 853077 946237 1033184 964063 25-29 507260 47514 584212 725047 781291 76409 886326 974446 30-34 444672 395462 34490 503976 634538 729797 744325 831467 35-39 392997 358635 30847 299473 44467 595265 689127 703429 40-44 362791 334909 307857 282111 269317 41976 565727 658694 45-49 275312 319537 2%119 285431 261994 254419 398775 54013 50-54 261035 242059 284823 273570 264630 247146 239323 376869 55-59 215290 231831 214479 260995 251069 245963 230021 222186 60-64 175513 190520 206955 19372 236360 228355 223764 209236 65-69 172529 151214 165406 180903 169419 20229 199064 194939 70-74 102732 136768 121277 134039 146146 136717 165837 159703 75+ 112892 123022 153607 159694 170830 183677 182237 200921 TOTAL 8701620 9564613 8365328 8645050 870538 8946546 916036 9403638 FEMAWE 0-4 1496873 1406040 1310201 1161488 957617 842202 820479 847792 5-9 1308119 1191671 1128947 1172518 1050M61 905593 800212 783658 10-14 1169595 1106989 1009168 1036836 1085369 1010120 872374 771396 15-19 921858 972013 924996 918511 946291 1037863 969273 838640 20-24 665622 729376 780600 829604 824378 893868 . 996357 924853 25-2 530197 501723 554578 686085 734118 772229 839415 932947 30-34 455096 406613 376110 481350 604059 687675 724985 790162 35-39 408559 367403 327038 31603 426817 568492 650765 687875 40-44 367396 343412 10148 297096 299058 402543 540094 621585 45-49 280863 3100 294452 283636 å72!6 281997 31011 514544 50-54 250162 235859 267220 :67774 258874 255974 264930 359255 9193720 2071 193910 28142 23972 23997 37736 245897 -42992 15794 171704 169098 210276 218039 21933 217905 4!-69 49174 1-0000 j1061 147431 '45479 ?505 19306 194293 967 !!3799 ?2: 103414 119293 1.8374 :s 1.o :60179 !+ 104639 41 1i49 5 129443 133794 20042 '59279 129602 3TAL 8559492 8292069 902371 8253029 8307052 570250 811348 913 iTL 5F 1726111, £65566E2 6367692 16998080 !7012890 1751676 17971714 :8484820 RELATED INDICATORS BIRTHM RATE 42.5 40.1 3=.3 26.5 21.9 20.4 20.1 2EATM RATE 14.2 12.9 11.4 9.9 8.7 8.0 7.3 RATE 2F NAT. INC. 2.8 2.71 2.19 1.66 1.32 1.24 1.29 SRONTH RATE -0.47 -3.59 0.64 0.14 0.58 0.41 0.56 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.500 5.958 4.631 3.348 2.567 2.248 2.169 SRR 3.171 2.906 2.259 .633 1.252 1.097 1.058 NRR 2.413 2.289 1.940 1.383 1.101 1.000 1.000 126 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 InR - NALE 115.4 106.4 97.7 82.5 68.0 53.1 38.2 INR - FEALE 103.5 95.3 87.2 72.6 58.0 43.3 28.7 IR - 8OTH SEXES 109.6 101.0 92.6 77.8 63.1 48.3 33.6 E0) - MLE 53.67 55.76 57.85 59.99 62.20 64.46 66.80 E(0 • FEMLE 54.18 56.65 59.13 61.15 64.69 67.66 70.76 E(0) - 3OTH SEXES 53.92 56.19 58.47 60.90 63.41 66.02 68.73 EV10) - MALE 55.38 56.41 57.43 58.13 58.85 59.57 60.31 E<101 - FERLE 55.52 56.91 58.32 59.57 60.85 62.17 63.54 NET NMIRNTS-MLE -1366104 -1335350 -626785 -629515 -307134 -313237 -317173 NET NIeRANTS-FEmLE -1452456 -1406068 -659826 - -661697 -325793 -333665 -34067? NET NMRATION RATE -33.0 -33.0 -15.5 -15.2 -7.3 -7.3 . -7.2 AVE. ANM. IIRTHS 724322 665333 553614 44809 378114- 361557 3666 1 OF NKICH: NOTHERS <20 135790 124396 85688 52225 39027 34584 30010 MOTHERS 20-34 454545 454585 410809 358941 306242 291007 297501 NOTHERS 35+ 103987 86353 57117 36931 32845 35966 39170 AVE. ANN. DEATHS 241496 214846 190215 166832 150747 141192 132489 OF WKICH: INFANT DEATHS 79367 67175 51264 34880 23852 17471 12307 DEATHS ABE 1+ 162128 147671 138952 131952 126995 123721 120182 OROAD ABE GROUPS NUMBERS MALES 0-14 4069620. 3820059. 3567475. 3511828. 3220515. 2868039. 2590220. 2495060. 15-64 4243847. 4333549. 4357562. 4658585. 499927. 5551883. 6023008. 6353114. 65+ 388152. 411004. 440290. 47437. 486395. 526623. 547138. 555463. 0-14 3974587. 3704700. J447'16. 5371842. 3093646. 2757914. 2493065. 2402545. .5-64 4232465. 4234362. 4200756. 4502899. 4815839. 53538. 5513497. 6133663. S5+ -524:9. :5007. 34299. 379288. 397567. 453967. 504785. 544674. 15-49 U6:9592. 3M49. 79^. 37884. 4116906. 4644659. 5091899. 5310605. 3MT SI 0-!4 2044208. 524759. 7014791. 682669. 6314161. 5625954. 5083285. 4897906. 15-64 84761. 55679!2. 25M3:. 0161484. 9814766. 10910251. 13606. 248677. ÷ 459. ?4011. 794590. :92. 883963. 980591. 051923. 1100136. 4 46.77 14.6û 42.65 40.62 36.99 32.06 2.8 26.53 15-64 48.77 50.60 52.09 53.89 57.42 62.06 65.75 67.56 ås÷ 4.46 4.80 5.26 5.49 5.59 5.89 5.97 5.91 FEMALES 3-14 46.43 44.68 43.05 40.94 37.24 32.18 22.29 26.46 15-64 49.45 51.07 52.49 54.56 57.97 62.52 65.99 67.54 65+ 4.12 4.26 4.43 4.60 4.79 5.30 5.73 6.00 15-49 42.40 43.22 44.59 46.38 49.44 54.20 57.79 58.45 21TH S1 0-14 46.60 44.64 42.56 40.73 37.11 32.12 23.29 26.50 15-64 49.11 50.83 52.29 54.22 57.69 62.25 65.86 67.55 65+ 4.29 4.53 4.05 5.05 5.20 5.60 5.85 5.95 .,pc1ndmncy Ratic 103.6 9%.7 91.2. 84.4 733 60.6 51.8a 48.0 127 BRAZIL NORTHEAST RURAL OPTIMISTIC FERTILITY RATES lY PERIOD PERIOD 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 TOT mE1 MEAN FERTILITY RATIO AT BIRTH AE 1 0.1434 0.3007 0.3146 0.2617 0.1764 0.05 0.0173 6.50 105.0 28.86 - 2 0.1312 0.2760 0.298 0.2400 0.1614 0.0794 0.0158 5.96 105.0 28.85 3 0.0930 0.2273 0.2384 0.IM 0.1172 0.051e 0.0096 4.63 105.0 28.60 4 0.0560 0.1802 0.15?7 0.1393 0.746 0.0262 0.0036 3.3 105.t 28.17 - 5 0.0394 0.1433 0.1510 0.1077 :0.053 0.0164 0.0017 2.57 105.0 27.99 6 0.0345 0.1255 0.1323 0.0944 0.0472 0.0144 0.0015 2.25 105.0 27.99 7 0.0333 0.1210 0.1276 0.0910 0.0455 0.0139 0.0014 2.17 105.0 27.98 LZFE-TABLE SURVIVORSHIP PR8ABILITIES 1(I) BY SEI, ABE AND PERIOD MALES PERDD 1(1) 1(51) 1(10) 1(15) 1(20) 1(25)' 1(30) 1(35) 1(40) 1(45) 1(50) 1(55) 1(60) 1(65) 1(70) 1(75) 1(80) i .89463 .82846 .917.7 .81019 .79970 .79040 .76019 .73911 .71602 .69893 .65676 .61504 .56396 .49614 .40863 .30154 .1866 2 .89360 .84609 .83644 .83034 .31991 .80294 .78390 .76397 .74211 .71632 .68540 .64458 .59422 .52634 .43749 .32729 .2064: 3 ."0231 .86315 .85525 .84992 .84056 .82495 .80712 .78839 .76782 .74341 .71387 .67410 .62467 .5569? .46711 .35408 .227k 4 .91717 .88534 .37829 .g7341 .96480 .85082 .83510 .81940 .79970 .7766 .74801 .70821 .65657 .58518 .48993 .37007 .23624 5 .93204 .90779 .90164 .89723 .88942 .7719 .J6372 .84925 .83259 .81149 .78347 .74375 .68982 .61455 .51365 .38661 .2453 6 .94690 .93050 .92530 .92140 .91444 .90407 .89302 .39093 .86651 .84733 .92028 .78075 .72446 .64512 .53831 .40373 .2å47 7 .96176 .95347 .94927 .94590 .93986 .93146 .92299 .91348 .90148 .89443 .95850 .91927 .76054 .67696 .56392 .42144 .2642 -EMALES PE(RID 1(11 1<51 1(101 1115 1(20) 1(25) 1(30) 1(35) 1(40) 1(45) 1(501 1(55) 1(601 1(65) 1(701 1(751 I(80) 1 .39651 .84128 .82251 .80967 .79529 .77824 .75892 .73734 .71330 .68626 .65699 .62054 .57456 .51169 .42649 .31878 .20 2 .90475 .5370 .84:37 .3167 .31381 .80335 .78577 .76614 .74413 .71893 .69098 .65564 .61078 .54853 .46267 .35174 .274 3 .91275 .87542 .86237 .35276 .84144 .2760 .81151 .79420 .77433 .75094 .72476 .69080 .64746 .58635 .50046 . 8697 .25T 4 .92740 .89736 .83664 .37868 .86906 .85710 .84336 .82785 .81011 .7876 .76384 .73081 .68757 .62583 .53769 .41900 . 793 5 .?4205 .91954 .91129 .90509 .897:7 .88735 .37581 .86266 .84722 .2816 .80470 .77292 .72934 .66765 .57741 .4342 .3C39 6 .?5669 .94198 .93671 .93197 .92609 .91934 .90920 . 9957 ."8570 .36913 .94740 .81639 .77438 .71194 .1974 .49039 .3309 7 . 97134 . 9467 .96:7: .9595 .95552 .950!0 .94352 .93565 .9255 .9:88 .890' .6312 .82129 .75883 .66485 .53309 .?601 ;EP:1: n-4 5-9 :-::4 2-24 :5-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 1 -:4.54 - 24.:7 -25.46 -31.Z7 -37.-6 -41.18 -36.70 -26.67 -17.40 -13.96 -10.18 -6.67 1.32 1.32 1. 2 . S -4.54 -^4.27 -25.46 -Z1.07 -37. 6 -41 18 -?6.70 -26.67 -17.40 -13.96 -10.18 -6.67 1.32 1.32 1.32 : -17.27 -12.14 -2.73 -15.54 -18.53 -20.59 -18.35 -13.34 -8.70 -6.98 -5.09 -3.34 1.32 1.32 1.'2 4 -17.27 -2.14 -12.73 -15.54 -18.53 -20.59 -18.35 -13.34 -8.70 -6.98 -5.09 -3.34 1.32 1.32 1.32 5 -5.64 -6.'7 -6.37 -7.77 -9.27 -10.30 -9.18 -6.67 -4.35 -3.49 -2.55 -1.67 1.32 1.32 1.32 6 -8.64 -6.07 -6.37 -7.7: -9.27 -:0.30 -9.18 -6.67 -4.35 -3.49 -2.55 -!.7 1.32 1.32 1. 2 7 -9.64 -6.07 -6.37 -7..7 -9.-7 -10.30 -9.18 -6.67 -4.35 -3.49 -2.55 -1.67 1.32 1.2 1.32 FEMALES ER6OD 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-,9 20-24 25-2? 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 1 -34.11 -25.84 -:7.30 --1.97 -37.31 -40.60 -34.88 -27.20 -22.04 -21.26 -20.05 -25.01 -10.31 -10.31 -10.31 - 2 -34.11 -:5.84 -27.0 -31.97 -37.31 -40.60 -34.88 -27.20 -22.04 -21.26 -20.05 -25.01 -10.31 -10.: -10.31 - 3 -17.06 -12.92 -13.65 -15.99 -18.66 -20.30 -17.44 -13.60 -11.02 -10.63 -10.03 -12.51 -5.16 -5.16 -5.16 i -17.06 -12.92 -13.65 -15.99 -18.66 -20.30 -!7.44 -13.60 -11.02 -10.63 -10.03 -12.51 -5.16 -5.16 -5.16 5 -9.53 -6.46 -6.83 -7.99 -9.33 -10.15 -8.72 -6.80 -5.51 -5.32 -5.01 -6.25 -2.58 -2.58 -2.58 6 -5.53 -5.46 -6.83 -7.99 -9.33 -10.15 -3.72 -6.80 -5.51 -5.32 -5.01 -6.25 -2.55 -2.58 -2.5 7 -8.53 -6.46 -6.8 -7.99 -9.33 -10.15 -!.72 -6.80 -5.51 -5.32 -5.01 -6.25 -2.59 -2.58 -2.58 128 BRAZIL NORTHEAST RURAL OPTIMISTIC POPULATION 3Y SPECIAL AGE GROUPS FR SELECTED YEARS; UNITS ONE'S ;PABE .I AGE GROUP 190 19s 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 MALES 0- 4 151061 145502 1356125 1204675 993754 374506 152271 80927 7-14 2006054 1899654 1748404 1816744 17875 161802 132301 125503 15-18 801676 837152 795437 758642 807051 I344 313774 701894 19-28 1399735 1549451 1695693 1370905 181306 20042 3 214225 2102241 15-64 4243848 433350 4357562 465853! 4991927 555181 602300 63115 15-49 3592010 3669139 3651305 3930238 424686 4830419 5329900 54424 TOTAL 9701620 9564613 8365329 8645050 8705938 8946546 9160364 9403631 FEMALES 0- 4 1496873 1406040 1310201 1161488 157617 842202 820480 847792 7-14 1937272 1829854 1685899 1727715 1708375 154939 1325792 1205425 15-18 760117 794188 748862 737702 764320 346286 78750 676641 15-28 1431763 1506813 1597793 1764197 1793521 1909991 2039156 2015836 15-64 4232466 4234362 4200756 450299 4315839 5358361 5813493 6133663 15-49 3629592 3633549 3567922 3827194 4106906 4644659 5091199 5310606 TOTAL 8559492 5292070 8002371 8253030 307052 8570250 8811341 9081183 BOTH St 0- 4 3007554 2861343 2666326 2366163 1951373 1716710 1672756 1728719 7-14 3943327 3729508 3434303 3544459 3495935 3167871 2706094 246092 15-18 1561793 1632041 1544299 1496344 1571371 1729734 1604523 1371535 18-28 2831498 '056264 293486 3635101 3681537 3914264 4182510 4118077 15-64 9476314 567912 1.593!7 9161484 9814766 10910251 11836506 12496778 15-49 7221602 7302688 719227 7758122 8353776 9475078 10421799 10855429 TTAL :7261i12 16856483 16367699 16898080 17012990 17516796 17971714 18484821 129 BRAZIL NRTHEAST RURAL OPTIMISTIC ASE BROUP 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0-4 1736 1699 1621 1393 1141 977 930 937 5-9 1544 1409 1405 1407 1254 1050 906 864 10-14 1397 1352 1238 1261 1304 1178 991 852 15-19 1112 1197 1174 1099 1151 1217 1105 928 20-24 737 899 989 1022 980 1058 1128 1025 25-29 583 555 699 839 897 890 968 1036 30-34 511 450 412 583 729 816 813 884 35-39 452 419 369 346 511 665 752 748 40-44 417 391 368 326 309 469 618 700 45-49 316 373 354 330 301 284 435 574 50-54 300 293 340 316 304 276 261 401 55-59 247 271 256 302 288 275 251 236 60-64 202 222 247 224 271 255 244 223 65-69 19! 177 198 209 195 231 217 207 70-74 118 160 145 155 168 153 181 170 75+ 130 144 184 185 196 205 199 214 TOTAL 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 FEMES 0-4 '749 196 1637 1407 1153 983 931 934 5-9 152 :437 1411 1421 1265 1057 908 063 le-4 166 75 260 125 137 279 ?91 W4 23-24 f- 095 1005 ~ 9 1343 1119 1013 Z5-29 61 65933184 901 9312 492 470 583 727 002 823 870 3-39 477 443 409 402 514 663 739 757 40-44 429 414 3H 360 360 470 613 694 45-49 328 3-7 :6 344 323 329 432 567 50-54 292 24 134 324 312 299 301 T96 55-59 226 :50 :42 209 299 280 270 271 60-64 106 190 215 205 253 254 248 240 65-69 174 157 163 179 175 216 219 215 70-74 115 136 124 125 42 139 173 176 75+ 122 133 156 156 161 175 181 209 TOTAL 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 130 BRAZIL NORTHEAST RURAL OPTINISTIC PUP1.A7I0N BY SPECIAL AE 6ROUPS FOR SELECTED MRS; UNIT S PERo000'S ;PAM i ASE SROUP 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 mALES 0- 4 1736 1699 1621 1393 1141 977 930 937 7-14 2305 2219 2090- 2101 2053 1809 1509 1335 15-19 921 977 951 578 927 987 894 746 18-28 1609 1809 2027 2164 2169 2240 2339 2236 15-64 4177 5060 5209 5389 5742 6206 6575 6756 15-49 4129 4284 4365 4546 4878 5399 5818 5896 FENALES 0- 4 1749 1696 1637 1407. 1153 983 93! 934 7-14 2263 2207 2107 2093 2057 1808 1505 1327 15-18 888 959 936 894 920 987 592 745 18-28 1673 1817 1997 2138 2159 2229 2315 2220 15-64 4945 5107 5249 5456 5797 6252 6598 6754 15-49 4240 4382 4459 4635 4944 5420 5779 5848 0TH Si 0- 4 1742 1697 1629 1400 1147 980 931 935 7-14 225 21 2098 2098 2055 1808 1507 133! 15-1 905 968 944 88 924 987 993 746 :8-:! 1640 181Z 2012 2151 2164 2235 2327 2228 5-64 491! 5083 5229 5422 5769 622 4586 675 :5-49 4:84 42 4411 4591 4910 5409 5799 131 BRAZIL NORTHEAST OPTIMISTIC PROJECTION Cuaulatien for Preceding Cass fron 1 ta 2 A6E ROUP 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0-4 2775850 3005247 3087257 2862912 2574135 248299 2543451 264120 5-9 2483366 2562485 2B10272 295889 2780151 2529067 2456207 2523071 10-14 2326757 2376973 248050 2755284 -2915419 2754265 2510957• 2441768 15-19 167635 2210057 2273243 2410259 2694373 2877259 2723761 2487800 20-24 1381617 1842029 2080718 2191444 2337231 2642434 2921194 2683249 25-29 107277M 1270339 1703821 1909466 2109330 2279002 2583206 2770508 30-34 921105 990225 1174001 1626540 1903112 2052667 2224471 2525130 35-39 784966 872001 946092 1133417 1569481 1855978 2007581 2178654 40-44 725266 766487 856877 927207 1108437 1534756 1818052 1969298 45-49 549058 720085 762990 840417 911803 1082743 149840 1776062 50-54 516582 54%71 712942 741496 818158 881944 1047703 1448834 55-59 419441 512174 544119 682131 710224 776274 837749 995186 60-64 331998 411298 497819 510499 636447 654610 714135 772412 65-69 312130 309507 379172 443990 454121 557710 572840 626221 70-74 198308 262160 262404 312687 363252 367557 448864 461825 75+ 214500 248039 312230 331599 384436 436269 460808 529904 TOTAL 16982040 19909476 20872713 22739236 24270616 25764904 27277509 28837941 FEMALES 0-4 2742606 2898419 2974350 2756850 2477337 238959 2447126 2546807 5-9 2442996 2527299 2707063 2856406 2678866 2437590 2369576 2434148 10-14 2342447 2335935 2434454 2649592 2807063 2654909 2425615 2362788 15-19 054913 2241228 2249141 2391696 2597904 2775375 2634549 2413629 20-24 157760 1958214 2142081 2188420 2325362 2559051 2741736 2609630 2-211 9210683 1446170 1848445 2067929 2117381 2279535 2514648 2699297 30-34 1014103 1129044 157109 1779069 1992759 2068899 2234017 2467290 3-79 37904 95375 1173418 132173 1722377 1948629 2028524 2193597 790555 834389 ?1948 1044150 1278432 1i95987 1912087 1992624 45-6 59 76:727 308920 394161 101845 124911 1650545 172617 52-54 52:1 597662 7:'582 779900 5656 92=723 12147 1 1605065 25-59 42408 52446 2660 695259 742846 827494 948465 1167107 61-64 N653 19552Z 492760 S8486 64972 694698 77'329 93418 - 1969 33255 d61I05 441039 4602 523307 627501 704859 70-74 225626 2611U1 260703 299244 C6213 389269 492198 530037 "!4 242253 74258 !20070 344759 387251 460602 516465 622815 TkTAL 17726231 19443717 21239108 23009731 24494686 25991824 27533111 29115717 TOTAL M+F 3470827: 3E3531?2 42111820 45748968 48765304 51756728 54810620 57953660 RELATED INDICATDRS 31RTH RATE 37.7 34.6 2!.5 23.3 20.7 19.6 19.1 DEATH RATE 12.6 11.2 10.0 8.7 7.9 7.3 7.1 RATE YF NAT. INC. .52 2.3 1.86 1.46 1.29 1.23 1.20 SRuTH RATE 2.00 1.87 1.66 1.29 1.19 1.15 1.12 TC7AL FERTILITY 5.022 4.347 3.425 2.709 2.353 2.195 2.161 SRR 2.450 2.120 1.671 1.322 1.149 1.071 1.054 NRR 1.881 1.674 1.387 1.151 1.035 1.000 1.000 132 ' -�_ " ' : .-.. �_�т ��" . .� • , +�.t•; >*��.�,•-: . � ` .,�- -. :. • � ��: �'. �.�=`�:.д,-�"�'��.*' , 0 CE1�PRiC,4�'41DtTIp1''r 1GTY�RR.CA►1� G.N: DE11R_ VARI�{� 1 1�R�2�~���'�1l��.'i�����tав�. к OQq6RAPH1 : 14 cotut � , , �: - . . _;.� ' �гi '�r � ' ::�,r�,f . __. - EI�1! Eft'F 1�R' F1�1�F'tl� . .FlR7���!���,�'���'' FR10 f'R4S MIlL ftIF!! * Ot'is�ягitat к � �т--.,�::�:� - 01 l4�-1?!0 s 50.800 Sl.S00 3.000 O.ia1 0.245 0.21L .=���цF'` O.1St�_ f.0l4 0.021 0.111 0.1С 02 19l0-1l4� к 52.300 ц.300 2.140 O.1Bi 0.289 0.?.6Z 0.2I3 0.14t 0.062 0.020 0.104 0.09 от 149s-гооо : ц.ооо s5.4oo г.е4о о.1>9 o.re апь: е.и0, о.1и о.оТч о.ого о.о9! а.оЕ о4 zoo0-2oas : ss.ьao 5т.5оо г.ьео o.1be о.гм O.s4z: е.1�4 о.1ц о.от5 о.о1' о.о91 O.Os 05 тооs-т01о : s7.г0о 59.1оо г.4то о.1sт о.иs о.г1� о.1ть о.гг� о.оы о.о17 о.овт о.0� оь 201a�c1s : 5е.70о ьо.ьоо 2.1оо а.1тт о.т7 o.1n o.1�z о.1от o.OS� o.o1s О.о75 о.Оь о? гоls-га'т : ь0.�оо ы.гоа 1.ьэо о.1от о.1ьь 0.1sт о:1в� о.оеь о.о4Т О.о1г о.оье о.сЕ ое zo�гe�s : ы.ьоо ы.аоо 1.зео о.оет о.1ть о.1г4 о.1оо а.о7о о.озе О.о1о о.0ы О.с� о+ � �: _ : ы.ь0о ьз.еоо 1.тео о.овт 0.1та о.1г�м� t.toR. o.on о.отв о.о1о о.оы O.Os 1о гОг�2о101�•'_. , : ы.ь0о ыt.аоо 1.зво о.оеТ о.1�ь o.1tt• �o-.ta� = в.еэ�w • е.оза о.о1о о.оы о.0: ; e�н�;�:�st , � - - - --- o119es-1no : s0.� sz.тo т.оо о.14 о.т0 �О.п о.п'� о.1�• о.в� а.от o.1Z О.г ОТ 1940-1!!S к SZ.30 54,30 3.00 0.14 0.30 0.2'�:- О.ц 0.15 О.ОЕ 0.01 0.11 0.1 от 19ss-гоав . s4.oo 5s.9o а.0о о.19 о.то o.n о.ц o.1s о.ае о.ог о.1о о.с 04 2000-2005 . S3.b0 57,50 2.97 0.19� 0.24 0.27 0.22 0.13 0.09 0.02 0.04 0.t 05 2005-2010 . 57.20 54,10 2.91 •0.18 0.29 0.26 0.21 0.13 0.0� 0.01 О.ОВ D,t J6 2010-2015 . S8:?0 :�.б0 2.91 ' 0.18 O.ZB 0.25 0.20 0.14 0.08 0.02 О.ОВ О.г. �� г01s-гОго . ь0.г0 �_..0 ..se 0.:7 л.2s О.г4 о.14 0.14 о.о7 o.oz О.о7� е.� �эе 2ого-го?3 ..1.ь0 ..,ао :.5з о.1ь o.zs о.:з о.1в � о.1т о.от а.ог з.Оь �.: :э zОгS-гозе , ы.ьо .з.:0 ..sз 0.1ь з.гs о.гз 0.1в а.1т о.07 о,а: е.сть �.:: � е n �е л �в � •' .�? ?.�: �.95 �. :� �O:a�e�s . б1.ь0 ....о ..sз о.1ь ,._. �.г: о. з е.,� ^ -•: ij 1 Estimated Trende in Childhood Nortality from Child Survival Data Expressed an Equivalent Coale-Demeny South Model Life Table Levels BRAZIL 1970 CenRus, 1977 PNAD, 1980 Census and 1984 PNAD 1984 980 n us 10 1.971 ce I: 3V X, Total Population Urban Population Rural Population j: lit ^f Rofprence Are A.2: Estimated Trends i hldhd otal f Child Surviva L Expressed as Equivalent Coale-Demeny South Model Life Table Levels BRAZIL, NORTHEAST REGION 1 f1970 Census, 1977 PNAD, 1980 Census and 1984 PNAD tik- Ii 9 6 I lit 1 9g70 cenp -- Total Population --- Urban Population bl ; ..... Rural Population 4 11 [tir1V 1 2 1 16. Figare A.3: Estimated Trends in Childhood Mortality from Child Survival Dato Expressed as Equivalent Coale-Demeny South Model Life Table Levels WBRAZIL. SOUTHEAST REGION(S 1984 PNAD 1970 Census, 1977 PNAD, 1984 PNAD .--Total Population S----- Urban Population i ..... Rural Population all k 3 Figure A.4: Estimated Trends in Childhood Mortality from Child Survival Data Expressed ab Equivalent Coale-Demeny South Model Life Table Levels BRAZIL, CENTRAL WEST REGION 1970 Census, 19C4 PNAD l gl1.970C -------Total Population ----- Urban Population I..... Rural Population '4I ilt: a.I I 0 I I i I 4 Date of Reference . Figure A.5: Estimated Trends in Childhood Mortality from Child Survival Data Expressed as Equivalent Coale-Demeny South Model Life Table Levels BRAZIL, SOUTH REGION 1 I: 1970 Census, 1977 PNAD, 1984 PNAD 1s te 47 - T Total Poulation ---Urban Population I..... Rural Population its 71 L 3 I L it' Figure A.6: Estimated Trends in Childhood Mortality from Child Survival Data Expressed as Equivalent Coale-Demeny South Model Life Table Levels BRAZIL, NORTH REGION, URBAN POPULATION ONLY 1984 PNAD - - Albo i .41 fl u II il8 2 1 24 Figure A.7: Comparison of Estimated Trends and Levels of Childhood Mortality From 1984 PNAD Child Survival Data BRAZIL AND ITS REGIONS TOTAL POPULATIONS * SE A2 L ~ CW L South .... - Southeast ' B Central West . * - Brazil ISE IT' IL ~Northeast +5L~ ..1 111 1 A Alt jo £ ~ a ¶ au 1115 1; Figure A.8: Comparison of Estimated Trends and Levels of Childhood Mortality From 1984 PNAD Child Survival Data BRAZIL AND ITS REGIONS URBAN POPULATION - - , SE Central West . • . - N southh.- iMorth Brazi, TIor--r fliI i; ~ ~ ~ ~ Northeast *j. Date of Reference Figure A.9: Comparison of Estimated Trends and Levels of Childhood Mortality From 1984 PNAD Child Survival Data BRAZIL AND ITS REGIONS i, RURAL POPULATION --' SoutIh ,. - ---'-. CI? - - --- -"1 centrai vest Southeast- Brazil N ta Northeast INE tI- I. - It .' ~ 4 ItS° 7 8 ¶ lro.i 3 44 i 142 P/F -e-- - - --- Ra i ...:. . .. . Value Figure A.10: PIF Ratio Values by Age-Group of Women BRAZIL 1980 Census Data and 1984 PNAD Data I.,5 - _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _-__ _ _ _ _ --- Total Population ---- Urban Population ..... Rural Population- l-Se- I.. 4198 ___ ___ __ __...___ _.__ ....._ __ 1984 .. . 19 - - -- - -- -19804 30- - - -----.. - - - -- ; -- - - .-1980 - - - 1.0o -- ------------ - g5 eo to 3 of womeS Age-Group of Women 143 Ratio . Value Figure A.11: P/F Ratio Values by Age-Group of Wonen -- BRAZIL, NORTMEAST REGIOi 1980 Census Data and 1984 PNAD Data ii.~ ------_. - ..- --.----- Total Population ---- Urban Population ..... Rural Population - -- - 15 - --- -- . I.o - - ---- - - - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - 45----. f.55 -1984 -- - --1980 --4--- -- 1984 1-35 - - 1980 1.45 1.0 G-p - --men I---*~- t----- -- - -- - e * -- Age Group of Women 144 Ratio - Value Figure A.12: PIF Ratio Values by Age-Group of Women BRAZIL, CENTRAL WEST REGION 1984 PNAD Data - I.go /4s • I-tb g -.o- 1-30 - / . 1.5 -I .0 -I RO 3 30 I qy Ag-Gou of om 145 P/F. a ti..... ......... Value Figure A.13: P/F Ratio Values by Age-Group of Women BRAZIL, SOUTHEAST REGION 1984 PNAD Data 2.00- 1.? L7b føl, l.4 2-30 f.2Ag-Gou -f ---Wotlmoplaio L. - - - 5.05 - I.220 25 3. Ag-Gop fWoe 146 P/p .---- ... Ratio Value Figure A.14: P/F Ratio Values by Age-Group of Women BRAZIL, SOUTH REGION 1984 PNAD Data 1.70- -tS - ."IF- 'r / |-t-o .so0 - ---- Total Population --- Urbani Population bl..... Rural Population .u Age-Group of Women 147 .. ........... P/F ---_ ___ - .-- --- -__-... - -- ---- - - - - Ratio value Figure A.15: P/F Ratio Values by Age-Group of Women BRAZIL, NORTH REGION, URBAN POPULATION ONLY 1984 PNAD Data Z,~- 1.10 - .5O 1-3 .5 - 1.1 145- I, Ao 1g-Gou of Woe 148 P/F _________ Ratio Value- Figur. A.16: Comparison of P/F Uatio Series From 1984 PAD Data BRAZIL AND ITS REGIONS 2.00* TOTAL POPULATIONS 1.if * g-t- Central West 1 1.so1 . -South Soutbeast Brazil /~ I-Six- 4 Northeast GIs/ <4504 1.0 - A--G 1 40 - Ao 29 30 $*5ð$5 . Age-Group of Wen 149 Ratio - - Value Figure A.17: Comparison of PIF Ratio Series From 1984 PNAD Data BRAZIL AND ITS REGIONS URBAN POPULATIONS t-15- Central West 1.30 - 1-P South Southeast Brazil •° North l5- 1 Northeast I-4o 1.35 - SeGo - W 1.45- \ .co Age-Group of Women 150 PIF Ratio value j?1 ure A.18: Comparison of PIF Ratio Series From 1984 PNAD Data BRAZIL AND ITS REGIONS RURAL POPULATIONS '.5- s.15 - South Wb Central West Soutb¯east L45- // liortheagt cw.T g o W 4 ~3razil .3 - NE ,.30-N - otes ).15. -- le or--- - t-a-t IS R 5 I- SWotW 1 Age-Group of Women