Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report KAZSTAT: Strengthening the National Statistical System of Kazakhstan (P120985) KAZSTAT: Strengthening the National Statistical System of Kazakhstan (P120985) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Kazakhstan | Poverty and Equity Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Adaptable Program Loan | FY 2011 | Seq No: 11 | ARCHIVED on 18-Dec-2016 | ISR25897 | Implementing Agencies: The Statistics Committee under the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date:31-Mar-2011 Effectiveness Date:24-Feb-2012 Planned Mid Term Review Date:20-Oct-2014 Actual Mid-Term Review Date:02-Oct-2014 Original Closing Date:30-Apr-2017 Revised Closing Date:30-Apr-2017 Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The main objective of the project is to improve efficiency and effectiveness of the national statistical system to provide relevant, timely and reliable data in line with internationally accepted methodology and best practices. The project will upgrade the conceptual, methodological and analytical skills of the ASRK and other data producer and user agencies of the country. This will position the ASRK to respond quickly and effectively to the new needs and priorities that will arise in the future. The main beneficiaries ofthe project outcomes are the ASRK, the Government and the general public as well as international development partners. The principal outcome of this project will be an improved national statistical system that can inform the Government#s decision-making processby providing timely and accurate economic and social data. It will also help Government monitor progress towards national development goals. The specific outputs of the project are:improved institutional framework that will encourage statistical development; improved information technology (IT) infrastructure; strengthened human resources through training in statistical operations; improved statistical infrastructure through application of internationally accepted methodologies and data quality standards; developed statistical production system that continuously adapts to evolving needs of the society and economy through user-producer dialogues; institutionalized core statistical activities, including poverty monitoring;increased output of reliable statistics by consolidating andstrengthening existing surveys and administrative sources, and by designing and conducting new data-generating activities; and timely dissemination, information-sharing, and the use of data for policy decisions. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No PHRPDODEL Components Name Improvement of the Institutional Framework and Operations of the Statistical System:(Cost $1.21 M) Improvement of Information and Communication Systems and Physical Infrastructure:(Cost $6.16 M) Improvement of Human Resources:(Cost $0.70 M) Improvement of Statistical Infrastructure, Standards and Methodology:(Cost $1.59 M) Improvement of user, provider and statistical agency relations:(Cost $1.25 M) 12/18/2016 Page 1 of 11 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report KAZSTAT: Strengthening the National Statistical System of Kazakhstan (P120985) Improvement of Individual Subject Matter Programs and Methodologies:(Cost $8.44 M) Project Management:(Cost $0.42 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO  Satisfactory  Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP)  Satisfactory  Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating  Low  Low Implementation Status and Key Decisions This ISR is submitted following the supervision implementation visit at the end of October 2016. The mission had meetings with the Agency of Republic of Kazakhstan on Statistics (Agency) management, project component leaders and relevant staff as well as the Project Implementation Working Group (PIWG) to discuss the progress and next steps. It was observed that the Agency management, project component leaders and relevant staff have very much involved in project activities and strong ownership of the project continues. The project implementation is moving as planned and on schedule. From March to September 2016, 48 project activities were implemented. This figure includes 28 expert missions to Astana, 11 study visits of Kazakh delegations, participation in 4 international working groups and 5 project management meetings. The current version of the project work plan contains 70 project activities to be implemented in 2016, of which 5 activities to be carried out in early 2017. As of September 2016, Component A Improvement of the Institutional Framework and Operations of the Statistical System is 93 percent complete with 27 activities that are implemented out of planned 29 activities. Component B Improvement of Information and Communication Systems and Physical Infrastructure is 95% complete with 20 activities that are implemented out of planned 21 activities. Component C Improvement of Human Resources is 95% complete with 42 activities that are implemented out of planned 44 activities. Component D Improvement of Statistical Infrastructure, Standards and Methodology is 97% complete with 57 activities that are implemented out of planned 59 activities. Component E Improvement of the User Relations Policy is 95% complete with 20 activities that are implemented out of planned 21 activities. Component F Improvement of Individual Subject Matter Programs and Methodologies is 95% complete with 244 activities that are implemented out of planned 256 activities. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance  --  Low  Low Macroeconomic  --  Low  Low Sector Strategies and Policies  --  Low  Low Technical Design of Project or Program  --  Low  Low Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability  --  Low  Low Fiduciary  --  Low  Low Environment and Social  --  Low  Low 12/18/2016 Page 2 of 11 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report KAZSTAT: Strengthening the National Statistical System of Kazakhstan (P120985) Stakeholders  --  Low  Low Other  --  Low  Low Overall  --  Low  Low Results Project Development Objective Indicators PHINDPDOTBL  User satisfaction rates have significantly increased by the closing date (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 45.00 95.00 95.00 80.00 Date 17-Mar-2011 14-Apr-2016 28-Oct-2016 30-Apr-2017 Comments The Agency has been holding the opinion pools of users’ satisfaction level since 2008. The surveys are realized by independent pooling organizations. Last survey was conducted in first half of 2014. The methodology of surveys follows the recommendation of the WB and professional principles of pooling. The results of the survey are surprisingly positive (over 95 % of satisfied users). Comparing with planned target-oriented indicators for 3rd year of the project (at least 40% of all users satisfied by the material given by the Agency), the outcome indicator was fully met. Positive results in the field of users’ satisfaction were achieved thanks to the implementation of new forms of dissemination of data (the TAUDAU central database system and extension of dissemination of data via websites of the ARKS and regional statistical offices, as well as the progress of disseminating statistical data on the websites of ministries and other producers of official statistical data. PHINDPDOTBL  Statistical products are easily accessible in relevant media with metadata and interpretation of findings (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 40,000.00 3,517,149.00 4,200,000.00 400,000.00 Date 17-Mar-2011 14-Apr-2016 28-Oct-2016 30-Apr-2017 Comments According to the statistics of visits on the website of the ARKS, at the end of June 2014 the number of visitors on the central website of the ARKS has exceed 1 200 000 and is growing almost exponentially. Since then this figure already reached 4 million and suppressed the modest end target of 400,000 already. Acceleration of the number of visitors of the website was observed after the implementation of the TAUDAU database. Thanks to the implementation of planned extension and further development of TAUDAU and implementation of metadata system on the website (now accessible for internal use of the NSS), the dissemination of statistical data and metadata via sites of the ARKS and of other statistical agencies will be basic form of accessing statistics by the users. 12/18/2016 Page 3 of 11 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report KAZSTAT: Strengthening the National Statistical System of Kazakhstan (P120985) PHINDPDOTBL  Internationally accepted statistical techniques in collection, compilation, and authenticity verification are applied and regular validations are carried out for data sources and statistical products (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 42.00 85.00 95.00 100.00 Date 17-Mar-2011 14-Apr-2016 28-Oct-2016 30-Apr-2017 Comments The ARKS has elaborated the programs of systematic implementation of international standards in the field of basic statistical data, with special reference to national accounts. The implementation of national accounts standards has been implemented and the latest mission observed that there has been significant improvements in the national statistical system and its activities in terms of standard in practice, data collection, verification and dissemination, which was evidenced by very positive feedback all around. It is estimated that 95% of standards and classifications shall be fully comply with the international standards during this period based on the implementation of activities. There are different kinds of international standards. From the point of view of the standards strongly recommended by the UNSC, IMF, WTO and other international organizations, the Kazakh statistics is compiling all basic data following methodological recommendations and timeliness of those organizations. "Design Quality Guidelines for Statistical Processes/Quality Guidelines for Official Statistics, including Quality Tools (Quality Reports, Methodological Audit, etc.)” has been carried out in July 2016 to provide recommendations and guidelines for designing Quality framework, tools and relevant best practices for such operations. A Consulting Mission (D8-KAZ-2) – Training – on the topic “International practice of seasonal adjustment and formation of time series” has been carried out in April 2016 by an expert from the Turkish Statistical Institute Turkstat. CS aims to produce seasonal adjusted figures of main economic indicators and visit focused on the revision and publication issues of seasonal adjusted indicators. During the visit, examples from world statistics community how seasonal adjusted figures are published, were explained (national accounts, short term business statistics, foreign trade statistics etc. At the end of the mission, CS staff was trained to design their new press releases containing seasonal adjusted figures. PHINDPDOTBL  Statistical outputs are released within the time limits and with frequency meeting the SDDS requirements (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 40.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Date 17-Mar-2011 14-Apr-2016 28-Oct-2016 30-Apr-2017 Comments Statistical material generated by the Agency meets the SDDS requirements. The ARKS is determining precise schedules of compiling, disseminating and transferring to national and international agencies specific statistical indicators. The schedules are the entire parts of the program of statistical activities adopted by the Government. They are obligatory for ARKS and for other producers of official statistical data. The scope of indicators compiled by the ARKS fully covers the requirements of the SDDS since 2014. Overall Comments Intermediate Results Indicators 12/18/2016 Page 4 of 11 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report KAZSTAT: Strengthening the National Statistical System of Kazakhstan (P120985) PHINDIRITBL  Mechanisms for effective inter-agency coordination are established and operational. (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Committee coordinates statistical actions and collection of official data. Efficient Efficient Efficient There is no complex intergovernmen Value intergovernmental intergovernmental evaluation about tal coordination coordination in place. coordination in place. applicability of information in place. generated as a result of research. Date 17-Mar-2011 14-Apr-2016 28-Oct-2016 30-Apr-2017 Comments The agency coordinates statistical actions and collection of official data. Administrative data submission rules and other documents for using data in statistical purposes are updated on regular basis. During the period covered by the ISR, a consulting mission/training (D9-KAZ-4) on the topic “Improvement of statistical infrastructure, standards and methodology; analysis and comparison of indicators” has been carried out in May 2016. At present, use of administrative sources for analysis and comparison of indicators and the work on the analysis of time series and statistical indicators as well as the relationship between various indicators is not undertaken in a systematic manner in the CS. Participants acquired theoretical knowledge and practical skills in analysing time series of macroeconomic indicators and indicators of industrial statistics. The participants got an experience with most common methods and tools of analysing economic time series that come out of the statistical work of the Committee. PHINDIRITBL  Mechanisms for effective dialogue with the data users and providers are operational (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Effective Has not completed yet. Effective dialogue Effective dialogue dialogue Users satisfaction polling between users and between users and between users Value by independent experts is producers of statistical producers of statistical and producers not ensured. data is in place. data is in place. of statistical data is in place. Date 17-Mar-2011 14-Apr-2016 28-Oct-2016 30-Apr-2017 Comments From 2014, users satisfaction polling by independent experts achieved are very positive. Number of complaints reduced by 25%. However, there is a lack of comparative data from previous years thus it is not possible to estimate the % of reduction of the number of complains. During the period covered by the ISR, it was observed that the pre-test laboratory was completed and tested and now ready for operation, which will help further improving questionnaire design and reducing respondent burden. A Consulting missions on the topic “Corporate design and improvement of standards for publications” and "Development of corporate design" have been carried out in April and September of 2016 by two experts from the German Statistical Office Destatis. The overall objective was the evaluation of the standards and to prepare a workshop with Regional Offices of Kazakhstan in September 2016. Few Style Guides were evaluated: 1. for authors of the subject matter departments at CS; 2. for the agencies, publishers and printers; 3. for Regional Offices of the Kazakh statistical system. 12/18/2016 Page 5 of 11 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report KAZSTAT: Strengthening the National Statistical System of Kazakhstan (P120985) PHINDIRITBL  CS central and local level structure optimized and staff trained including staff from relevant ministries and agencies. (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 40.00 90.00 98.00 100.00 Date 17-Mar-2011 14-Apr-2016 28-Oct-2016 30-Apr-2017 Comments The NSS of Kazakhstan has entered the process of deep modernization of organization and technology of collecting of data, integrated processing of statistical data and metadata and ICT-based dissemination. Full implementation of e-questionnaires from legal entities and individual entrepreneurs as well as the e-interviewing shall create new conditions of division of responsibilities between the ARKS, regional statistical offices (oblast) and local statistical units (rayon). During the period covered by this ISR, there were 3 study visits of CS experts on 1) Use of R-software in official statistics which have presented the theoretical and practical methods of using the R software in the following areas of stratification in agricultural and business surveys in R and integration of R and Java to increase the interactivity of software solutions for analyzing algorithmic data. As a result of the conference the CS staff members of the Registers Division have expanded their theoretical and practical knowledge in the use of R- software. Communication with foreign colleagues has contributed to better understanding of modern methods of the R- software. 2). UNECE Working Group on CPI in May (results report is not available yet) and 3). Environmental statistics in June/July of 2016. The training provided methodological and practical assistance to compilation of air emission accounts, as well as assessment of the primary data received on air emissions and assessment of new draft methodical recommendations for compiling environmental accounts in the System of National Accounts. CS’ work has been concentrated to environmental expenditures, waste, air emission accounts, environmental taxes, environmental goods and services. Discussion on publication formats of environmental accounting will continue in the CS. Methodology report will soon be finished and the scope will be later extended to national accounting approach to the SEEA 2012. PHINDIRITBL  Registers are compiled and being maintained. (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Regular work is in progress. Statistical Business Register (SBR) is properly set- up and being updated by: Business, Population, All registers are Regular work is in 1. Administrative data Housing stock and properly progress. However, there (Ministry of Justice, Agricultural registers are maintained and Value are difficulties with Ministry of Health and properly setup and applied to registers updating, using Social Development of getting ready to generate data for research. the Republic of generate samples. samples. Kazakhstan): Legal Entities National Database; 2. Data provided by tax authorities Date 17-Mar-2011 14-Apr-2016 28-Oct-2016 30-Apr-2017 Comments 1. Business register has been updated and complies with the international standards 2. Population register has been updated and complies with the international standards 12/18/2016 Page 6 of 11 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report KAZSTAT: Strengthening the National Statistical System of Kazakhstan (P120985) 3. Housing facilities register has been updated and complies with the international standards 4. Agriculture register has been updated and planning to use new technology in survey (see below) The development of e-government has created good conditions for regular updating of statistical registers on the basis of relevant administrative registers managed by the Ministry of Justice, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ministry of Economy and Ministry of Labor. The registers are regularly updated in electronic form. The progress of implementing new ICT systems the interchange of data between administrative registers of population, housing, legal entities, tax register, social insurance register, continued as the integral part of the project During the period covered by this ISR, Consulting Mission (D6-KAZ-6/7) on the topic “Preparation of the organisational guideline for surveys using CATI” has been carried out in August 2016 and it aimed providing help at the preparation of the organisational guideline for surveys using CATI. The discussed topic is strongly interlinked with building the CATI system, providing electronic questionnaire as well as a level of staff training. Installation and testing of CATI will be completed by the end of March 2017 and introduction of primary data collection in agriculture with CATI system could be conducted in early 2017. The CAPI system has already been piloted and in February 2017, there will be a nationwide application. For labor force, price and household surveys the CAPI will become the regular method of data collection. PHINDIRITBL  Internationally accepted classifications standards and methodologies are adapted and used in data production. (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target The metadata base system of maintaining and updating classifications and glossaries was designed and implemented. Basic scope of metadata covering internationally accepted standards, 1. Standard classifications and methodology for definitions was maintaining sector- introduced and is specific classifications, updated. The extension No 50 dated March 18, of the scope of metadata 2015. is continued. The ARKS Date of official metadata base can be Statistics data publication in the Legal used as the best generated by Information System practice for use of other the Agency fully Amending of accepted “Adilet” is May 13, national statistical meets the Value classifications when 2015 offices. international required. 2. Standard The adoption of requirements to methodology for international standards classifications generating metadata is the continuous work. and standards. was approved by Order The ARKS has of the Minister of organized efficient National Economy of system of monitoring the the Republic of changes of international Kazakhstan No 285 standards and dated March 31, 2015 evaluation of the necessity of their adoption to national needs. CS experts received trainings on methodology of National accounts, GDP by expenditure, GDP Export and Imports, Structural, Price, 12/18/2016 Page 7 of 11 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report KAZSTAT: Strengthening the National Statistical System of Kazakhstan (P120985) Industrial, Construction and Investment, Agriculture, Environment, Services, ICT, Trade, Science and Innovations, Tourism and Socio-economic statistics. All together 22 consulting missions and 8 study visits were conducted over the reporting period. Date 17-Mar-2011 14-Apr-2016 28-Oct-2016 30-Apr-2017 Comments The CS NA Department has qualified staff to be able to compile quarterly national accounts aggregates according to the methodology SNA 2008 (ESA 2010 respectively). Particular work on accounts was done, like rebalancing of the Supply and Use Tables and some distributive and financial transactions. All together the existing structural statistics in Kazakhstan is on the way to be in line with the international standards. The surveys are sufficient in order to calculate intermediate consumption and GVA for the purpose of different statistical domains (structural statistics, national accounts). In terms of environmental statistics, a consultation mission was to provide methodological and practical assistance to compilation of air emission accounts, as well as assessment of the primary data received on air emissions and assessment of new draft methodical recommendations for compiling environmental accounts in the System of National Accounts. CS’ work has been concentrated to environmental expenditures, waste, air emission accounts, environmental taxes, environmental goods and services. Methodology report will soon be finished and the scope will be later extended to national accounting approach to the SEEA 2012. The system of tourism statistics in Kazakhstan is in line with international standards, covers required variables and thus should be able to provide quality information on domestic, outbound and inbound tourism in Kazakhstan. PHINDIRITBL  Standard questionnaires for surveys developed and applied. (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Rules for Rules for approval of approval of statistical forms for statistical forms nation-wide and sector- Rules for approval of for nation-wide specific statistical statistical forms for and sector- surveys, guidelines for nation-wide and sector- specific completing them based specific statistical statistical Value Have not been drafted. on international surveys, guidelines for surveys, recommendations are completing them based guidelines for currently being agreed on international completing (located on the recommendations are in them based on coordination of the practice. international Ministry of Agriculture) recommendatio statistical forms. ns are in practice. Date 17-Mar-2011 14-Apr-2016 28-Oct-2016 29-Apr-2017 Comments The development work on Producer Price Indices for Services is progressing as planned. On the basis of information received on the mission it turns out that the SPPI is going to be consistent with the international recommendations and standards. CS has prepared draft questionnaires for several industries. The questionnaires seem to be well designed. When starting to develop new industry specific indices, it is recommended to contact the enterprises and/or industry representative organizations. The implementation of construction statistics in 12/18/2016 Page 8 of 11 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report KAZSTAT: Strengthening the National Statistical System of Kazakhstan (P120985) Kazakhstan is well done and comparable with European practice. Revised questionnaire for ICT statistics survey and indicators provided to the ITU through their ‘short’ and ‘long’ questionnaires on ICT use by households and individuals look overall robust and suitable according to the experts. PHINDIRITBL  ICT Capacity for operations is adequate and well maintained. (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Networking equipment Networking equipment (high-performance core (high-performance core switches and security switches and security Up to date ICT equipment) is equipment) is Value Required to be improved. network and purchased, delivered purchased, delivered equipment. and installed and and installed and adopted. adopted. Date 17-Mar-2011 14-Apr-2016 28-Oct-2016 30-Apr-2017 Comments (July 2014) the procurement activities of the ICT (hardware and software) were conducted. The current level of the ICT in the ARKS at the central and in regional offices is up-to-date for the technological capacity and organization of surveys and dissemination of data. PHINDIRITBL  All relevant staff at CS have workstations with access to databases for analysis and tabulations. (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target All statistical staff is equipped with the ICT and has the access to All statistical All statistical staff is internet. staff is equipped with the ICT Preparation and equipped with and has the access to approval of CATI the ICT and internet. technical has the access The CATI system should Value Required to be improved. documentation and to internet, be operational at the Improvement of CAPI however the end of 2016. The pilot is in process. quality of survey is foreseen in Procurement planning hardware and February 2017 using the Eviews is in progress software needs CATI system. and will be completed updating. in 2016. Date 17-Mar-2011 14-Apr-2016 28-Oct-2016 30-Apr-2017 12/18/2016 Page 9 of 11 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report KAZSTAT: Strengthening the National Statistical System of Kazakhstan (P120985) Comments All statistical staff are equipped with the ICT and has the access to internet, and have been receiving latest tool and package as per implementation activities such R software, CATI and CAPI development survey design and collection. The quality of hardware and software have been improved. Overall Comments Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed Disbursed P120985 IBRD-80230 Effective USD 20.00 20.00 0.00 18.01 1.99 90% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P120985 IBRD-80230 Effective 31-Mar-2011 26-Aug-2011 24-Feb-2012 30-Apr-2017 30-Apr-2017 Cumulative Disbursements 12/18/2016 Page 10 of 11 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report KAZSTAT: Strengthening the National Statistical System of Kazakhstan (P120985) Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 12/18/2016 Page 11 of 11 Public Disclosure Copy