The World Bank
       DTF: Tunisia Social Protection Reforms Support (P144674)




                                                                                          REPORT NO.: RES29104




                                              RESTRUCTURING PAPER

                                                       ON A

                                       PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING

                                                           OF
                                 TUNISIA SOCIAL PROTECTION REFORMS SUPPORT


                                         APPROVED ON OCTOBER 23, 2013
                                                           TO

                                             THE REPUBLIC OF TUNISIA




SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION


                               Regional Vice President:     Hafez M. H. Ghanem
                                      Country Director:     Marie Francoise Marie-Nelly
                        Senior Global Practice Director:    Michal J. Rutkowski
                           Practice Manager/Manager:        Hana Brixi
                                    Task Team Leaders:      Yuko Okamura, Carine Clert
        The World Bank
        DTF: Tunisia Social Protection Reforms Support (P144674)



ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

IPF    Investment Project Financing
MENA   Middle East and North Africa
PDO    Project Development Objective
PIU    Project Implementation Unit
SSN    Social Safety Net
        The World Bank
        DTF: Tunisia Social Protection Reforms Support (P144674)




BASIC DATA


Product Information

Project ID                                                     Financing Instrument
P144674                                                        Investment Project Financing

Original EA Category                                           Current EA Category
Not Required (C)                                               Not Required (C)

Approval Date                                                  Current Closing Date
23-Oct-2013                                                    31-Dec-2017


Organizations

Borrower                                                       Responsible Agency
Republic of Tunisia,Ministry of Development and
                                                               Ministry of Finance
International Cooperation



Project Development Objective (PDO)
Original PDO
The project development objective is to strengthen institutional capacity to design social protection reforms and
improve targetingof safety net programs.
OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDO
Summary Status of Financing
                                                                                       Net
TF                      Approval          Signing Effectiveness         Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed

TF-15956            05-Nov-2013 05-Nov-2013 05-Nov-2013 31-Dec-2017                       4.70       2.03           2.67

Policy Waiver(s)

Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)?
No
          The World Bank
          DTF: Tunisia Social Protection Reforms Support (P144674)



 I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING

A. Project overview and background

    1. This document proposes a level-two restructuring of the MENA Transition Funded Project - Tunisia Social Protection Reform
    Support (P144674, TF015956). The project was approved for a total amount of US$4.7 million on October 23, 2013, with an
    original closing date of June 30, 2017. The Project Development Objective (PDO) is “to strengthen institutional capacity to
    design social protection reforms and improve targeting of safety net programs”. The project includes three components: (i)
    Subsidy and Safety Net Reform Support, (ii) System Integration Support for Social Protection; and (iii) Communication, Project
    Management and Monitoring.

    2. In a letter dated July 20, 2016, the government had initially requested a restructuring entailing a 12-month extension of the
    project’s closing date, from June 30, 2017 to June 30, 2018, as well as a modification of the scope of the project activities. The
    scope of the project shifted away from ambitious support in the implementation of subsidy reform to focus on the development
    and improvement of the particular parts of the social protection delivery system. After careful consideration, and due to
    implementation delays- specifically updating the Social Safety Net (SSN) Beneficiary Registry under Component 1 (i.e., social
    survey), the Bank approved an initial extension of six months from June 30, 2017 to December 31, 2017, and communicated to
    the Government that any extension of the closing date beyond the approved six months would be contingent on the progress of
    the social survey by September 15, 2017.

    3. Based on discussions held during the last implementation support mission which was carried out in September 2017, the
    Government requested an extension for an additional 17 months, from December 31, 2017 to May 31, 2019. The proposed
    restructuring is the second restructuring for this project and would bring the cumulative closing date extensions to a total of 23
    months.

B. Project status

    4. The project has made some marked progress on technical work across all three components, as illustrated by the design
    and launch of the social survey, the development of the first two modules of management information system of the Ministry of
    Social Affairs, the fully functional social unique identifiers, and the launch of the development of the communication strategy. In
    particular, the project has successfully addressed the main implementation bottlenecks seen over the past year. These include:
    strengthening the Project Implementation Unit (PIU) by appointing additional staff in January 2017; launching the field activity
    for the social survey in April 2017; and increasing project disbursement levels over the past year. The project nonetheless
    continues to experience delays in implementing project activities, particularly in updating the social registry which is one of the
    priority activities under Component 1. The field activity of the social survey was launched in April 2017 following a three-year
    delay. However, the speed of the field activity has been slow. While the Ministry of Social Affairs has already advanced with the
    first phase of the social survey with 380,000 households registered in their system (intermediate level indicator), the survey has
    only been completed for 16,000 households as of end of October 2017 due to the slow implementation of the field activity. It is
    therefore unlikely that the project will be able to meet the set target of finalizing 300,000 households by the current closing
    date of December 2017 (PDO level indicator), although the government remains committed to achieving this original target with
    a delayed timeline if the proposed extension is approved.

    5. Moving forward, the Government has signaled to the Bank its commitment to accelerate the implementation of the social
    survey in a letter dated November 6, 2017. A number of high level dialogues took place to confirm the processes related to the
    social survey. First, the Ministry of Social Affairs has agreed that it will start providing vehicles to social workers in the first 11
    governorates in November 2017 to address the lack of transportation mode in conducting the field activity. In parallel, the
    government will continue negotiations with the remaining 13 governorates. Based on the status in December 2017, the
           The World Bank
           DTF: Tunisia Social Protection Reforms Support (P144674)


     government will subsequently assess whether the progress on social survey is sufficient and on track towards the completion of
     100,000 households by the end of February 2018. In the event that progress is deemed unsatisfactory, the government will
     immediately proceed with an alternative plan, including partnering with the National Statistics Institute. Specifically, this
     alternative plan will be automatically adopted for the governorates where the agreement with social workers is not finalized by
     the end of December 2017. The Bank responded to the government in an official letter dated November 15, 2017, summarizing
     these agreements and reiterated the importance of following the agreed timeline to avoid further delays in the implementation
     of this activity.

     6. The last Implementation Status Report (ISR) dated August 2017 rated Progress Towards Achievement of PDO and
     Implementation Progress as Moderately Unsatisfactory (MU) mainly due to the delays seen under Component 1, while the
     fiduciary rating is Moderately Satisfactory. Project disbursements currently stand at US$2.03 million, representing 43% of total
     Grant proceeds. The overall risk rating remains substantial amid a complex and fluid political economy – requiring continuous
     close implementation support to the project.

C.   Rationale for restructuring

     7. The proposed extension of the closing date is needed to allow sufficient time for the project to complete the remaining
     activities, including updating the SSN beneficiary registry. The extension would also prevent a partial cancellation of grant
     proceeds. Furthermore, it would contribute to enhancing the quality of some activities and deliverables. Specifically, with
     technical assistance from the World Bank, the targeting work has evolved and resulted in the development and the comparison
     of different targeting approaches. With the approval of the proposed restructuring, the project would be able to carry out a
     rigorous evaluation of the performance of different targeting approaches, thus directly contributing to the achievement of the
     PDO. In addition, there is a possibility that this project could provide technical assistance to design a pilot enhanced cash
     transfer to boost children outcomes in priority lagging regions. Such technical assistance, which can be accommodated within
     the project description of the current Grant Agreement, would also contribute to the achievement of the PDO. Furthermore, the
     additional implementation period would contribute to the ongoing dialogue on the next Development Policy Financing in
     Tunisia. Finally, it is also worth noting that the Government is considering two high-level reforms that will require a speedy
     implementation of a transparent management information system for social assistance. One is the subsidy reform which will
     require systems to mitigate the potential social impacts of such a reform; and the other is related to the movement towards the
     formulation of different elements of a social protection floor, covering access for all to minimum income and health coverage.

     8. The Recipient remains fully committed to ensuring the implementation of the project to carry out and complete all
     activities under the project. The performance of the project counterparts has also seen improvement through increased staffing
     and capacity building of existing PIU staff as well as strong oversight by the Prime Minister’s Office, which chairs the steering
     committee of the project.

     9. Under this restructuring, the requirements of the Bank Directive on Investment Project Financing (IPF) and the Bank Policy
     on IPF are expected to be met as follows: (a) the PDO remains achievable; (b) the performance of the Recipient remains
     satisfactory; (c) the World Bank and the Recipient agree on actions that will be undertaken by the Recipient to successfully
     complete the Project; (d) the project is not subject to suspension of disbursement; and (e) the Recipient has no outstanding
     audit reports. Additionally, the closing date extension has been approved by the MENA Transition Fund steering committee on
     November 27, 2017.


 II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES

D. Summary of proposed changes. The proposed restructuring would entail the following changes: a 17-month extension of the
   project’s closing date; a slight revision to the Results Framework; revision to component costs and correction of component
             The World Bank
             DTF: Tunisia Social Protection Reforms Support (P144674)


       names in line with the approved restructuring of June 2017; and revision of the project implementation schedule and
       disbursement schedule.

E.     Change in Closing Date. The proposed restructuring entails a 17-month extension of the project’s closing date -from December
       31, 2017 to May 31, 2019. The extension would allow the project sufficient time to complete all activities, including the social
       survey which has been delayed as well as the targeting work, in order for the project to achieve its intended PDO.

F.     Change in Results Framework. All indicators remain relevant, while the dates for the end target values have been revised to
       reflect the additional 17 months of implementation. In addition, a slight rephrasing is proposed to clarify one of the indicators.
       Specifically, the indicator on “the number of training” which has been measured by the number of participants in trainings will
       be revised as “the number of participants in trainings”.

G. Change in Components and Cost. A slight reallocation of costs across components will be made in line with the revised
   Procurement Plan as well as to hire consultants and a firm which will support the evaluation of the performance of different
   targeting approaches under Component 1 (this revision will not require an amendment to the Grant Agreement given that there
   is one withdrawal category across the various components). In addition, the component names of components 2 and 3 will be
   updated to be consistent with the approved restructuring and the Amendment to the Grant Agreement of June 2017. This was a
   result of an internal system error and does not require any modification to the Grant Agreement.

H. Change in Implementation Schedule. The project implementation schedule will be modified to account for the additional 17
   months of implementation.

I.     Change in Disbursement Estimates. Disbursement estimates are revised to reflect the longer implementation period.

J.     Change in Implementation Schedule. The project implementation schedule will be modified to account for the additional 17
       months of implementation.

K. Change in Disbursement Estimates. Disbursement estimates are revised to reflect the longer implementation period.




 III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES

                                                                                 Changed                          Not Changed
     Change in Results Framework                                                     ✔
     Change in Components and Cost                                                   ✔
     Change in Loan Closing Date(s)                                                  ✔
     Change in Disbursement Estimates                                                ✔
     Change in Implementation Schedule                                               ✔
     Change in Implementing Agency                                                                                      ✔
     Change in Project's Development Objectives                                                                         ✔
     Cancellations Proposed                                                                                             ✔
                                    The World Bank
                                    DTF: Tunisia Social Protection Reforms Support (P144674)



          Additional Financing Proposed                                                                                     ✔
          Reallocation between Disbursement Categories                                                                      ✔
          Change in Disbursements Arrangements                                                                              ✔
          Change in Overall Risk Rating                                                                                     ✔
          Change in Safeguard Policies Triggered                                                                            ✔
          Change of EA category                                                                                             ✔
          Change in Legal Covenants                                                                                         ✔
          Change in Institutional Arrangements                                                                              ✔
          Change in Financial Management                                                                                    ✔
          Change in Procurement                                                                                             ✔
          Other Change(s)                                                                                                   ✔


        IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S)


OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_RESULTS_TABLE




          RESULTS FRAMEWORK

          Project Development Objective Indicators
PDO_IND_TABLE




                        Development of targeting tool, socioeconomic classification applied to households registered in the database
                        Unit of Measure: Yes/No
                        Indicator Type: Custom

                                     Baseline                 Actual (Current)           End Target           Action
                        Value No                              No                         Yes                  Revised

                        Date         28-Feb-2017              31-Oct-2017                31-May-2019
                        Number of assessed persons who received unique social identifier
                        Unit of Measure: Number
                        Indicator Type: Custom

                                     Baseline                 Actual (Current)           End Target           Action
                        Value 0.00                            280000.00                  750000.00            Revised

                        Date         14-Nov-2013              30-Jun-2017                31-May-2019
                        Number of participants in trainings which enhance knowledge and capacity
                        Unit of Measure: Number
                        Indicator Type: Custom
                       The World Bank
                       DTF: Tunisia Social Protection Reforms Support (P144674)




                        Baseline                 Actual (Current)           End Target          Action
               Value 0.00                        2067.00                    2645.00             Revised

               Date     29-Jun-2017              30-Jun-2017                31-May-2019
               Number of households who are updated with complete information
               Unit of Measure: Number
               Indicator Type: Custom

                        Baseline                 Actual (Current)           End Target          Action
               Value 0.00                        16000.00                   300000.00           Revised

               Date     29-Jun-2017              31-Oct-2017                31-May-2019

Intermediate Indicators
IO_IND_TABLE




               Number of registered households in the new MIS (Management Information System)
               Unit of Measure: Number
               Indicator Type: Custom

                          Baseline                Actual (Current)           End Target         Action
               Value      0.00                    380000.00                  400000.00          Revised

               Date       28-Feb-2017             31-Oct-2017               31-May-2019
               Number of modules developed for the new MIS (Management Information System)
               Unit of Measure: Number
               Indicator Type: Custom

                          Baseline                Actual (Current)           End Target         Action
               Value      0.00                    2.00                       3.00               Revised

               Date       28-Feb-2017             31-Oct-2017               31-May-2019
               Implementation of interoperable platform
               Unit of Measure: Yes/No
               Indicator Type: Custom

                          Baseline                Actual (Current)           End Target         Action
               Value      No                      No                         Yes                Revised

               Date       28-Feb-2017             31-Oct-2017               31-May-2019
               Renovation of pension system in the CNSS
               Unit of Measure: Yes/No
                                         The World Bank
                                         DTF: Tunisia Social Protection Reforms Support (P144674)


                Indicator Type: Custom

                                            Baseline                Actual (Current)           End Target               Action
                Value                       No                      No                         Yes                      Revised

                Date                        28-Feb-2017             31-Oct-2017               31-May-2019
                Re-engineering of procedures of pension management system in the CNRPS
                Unit of Measure: Yes/No
                Indicator Type: Custom

                                            Baseline                Actual (Current)           End Target               Action
                Value                       No                      No                         Yes                      Revised

                Date                        28-Feb-2017             31-Oct-2017               31-May-2019
                Communication plan prepared and implemented
                Unit of Measure: Yes/No
                Indicator Type: Custom

                                            Baseline                Actual (Current)           End Target               Action
                Value                       No                      No                         Yes                      Revised

                Date                        29-Jun-2017             31-Oct-2017               31-May-2019


  OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_COMPONENTS_TABLE




  COMPONENTS
                                                                         Current
  Current                                                                                            Proposed                           Proposed
                                                                            Cost         Action
  Component Name                                                                                     Component Name                   Cost (US$M)
                                                                         (US$M)
  Subsidy and Safety Net Reform                                                                      Subsidy and Safety Net Reform
                                                                            2.15        Revised                                              2.49
  Support                                                                                            Support
  Strengthening Social Security                                                                      System Integration Support for
                                                                            2.30        Revised                                              1.98
  Analysis and Planning                                                                              Social Protection
  Project Management and                                                                             Communication, Project
                                                                            0.25        Revised                                              0.23
  Monitoring                                                                                         Management and Monitoring
   TOTAL                                                                    4.70                                                             4.70


OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_LOANCLOSING_TABLE
                                         The World Bank
                                         DTF: Tunisia Social Protection Reforms Support (P144674)



LOAN CLOSING DATE(S)

                                                                            Original              Revised Proposed     Proposed Deadline
TF                                                  Status                  Closing             Closing(s) Closing        for Withdrawal
                                                                                                                             Applications
TF-15956                                            Effective          30-Jun-2017           31-Dec-2017 31-May-2019         30-Sep-2019

OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_DISBURSEMENT_TABLE




DISBURSEMENT ESTIMATES

Change in Disbursement Estimates
Yes

      Year                                                                                          Current                   Proposed
      2014                                                                                      500,000.00                  500,000.00

      2015                                                                                      400,000.00                  400,000.00

      2016                                                                                             0.00                  -67,000.00

      2017                                                                                     1,400,000.00                1,170,000.00

      2018                                                                                     2,400,000.00                1,397,000.00

      2019                                                                                             0.00                1,300,000.00