Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: PAD4902 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION PROJECT PAPER ON A PROPOSED ADDITIONAL GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 43.5 MILLION (US$60 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA FOR THE EMERGENCY LOCUST RESPONSE PROJECT UNDER PHASE 1 OF THE EMERGENCY LOCUST RESPONSE PROGRAM (ELRP) USING THE MULTIPHASE PROGRAMMATIC APPROACH (MPA) APPROVED BY THE BOARD ON MAY 20, 2020 WITH AN OVERALL FINANCING ENVELOPE OF US$500 MILLION EQUIVALENT MAY 24, 2022 Agriculture and Food Global Practice Eastern and Southern Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Exchange Rate Effective March 31, 2022 Currency Unit = US$1 = SDR 0.72 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 Regional Vice President: Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Boutheina Guermazi Acting Regional Director: Catherine S. Tovey Practice Manager: Holger A. Kray Task Team Leaders: Melissa Williams, Imtiaz Alvi, Welela Ketema ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 3R4CACE Response - Recovery - Resilience for Conflict Affected Communities in Ethiopia Project AF Additional Financing CCB Climate Co-Benefits COVID-19 Coronavirus disease 2019 CPF Country Partnership Framework CSA Climate Smart Agriculture DL Desert Locust E&S Environmental and Social EHS Environmental Health and Safety ELRP Emergency Locust Response Project EELRP Ethiopia Emergency Locust Project E&S Environmental and Social ESF Environment and Social Framework EX-ACT Ex-Ante Carbon-Balance Tool FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FCV Fragile, Conflict and Violence FM Financial Management FSCD Food Security Coordination Directorate FY Fiscal Year GBV Gender Based Violence GHG Greenhouse Gas GoE Government of Ethiopia GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism GRS Grievance Redress Service Ha Hectares HH Household HROCA High Risk of Ongoing Conflict Areas IBEX Integrated Budget and Expenditure System software IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IDA International Development Association IFMIS Integrated FM Information System IFR Interim Financial Report IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development IPF Investment Project Financing M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MoA Ministry of Agriculture MoF Ministry of Finance MPA Multi-Programmatic Approach NGOs Nongovernmental Organizations OFAG Office of the Federal Auditor General PDO Project Development Objective PCU Project Coordination Unit PIM Project Implementation Manual PIU Project Implementation Unit PPE Personal Protective Equipment PrDO Program Development Objective PSNP Productive Safety Nets Program RBoA Regional Bureau of Agriculture SEA Sexual Exploitation and Abuse SNNPR Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s Region TPI Third Party Implementer TPMA Third Party Monitoring Agent UNOPS United Nations Office of Project Services WBG World Bank Group WFP World Food Program WHO World Health Organization TABLE OF CONTENTS I. BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR ADDITIONAL FINANCING ........................................ 8 A. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 8 B. MPA Program Context ...................................................................................................................... 8 C. Updated MPA Program Framework ................................................................................................. 9 D. Ethiopia Country Context ................................................................................................................. 9 E. Sectoral and Institutional Context in Ethiopia ................................................................................ 10 F. Parent Project Status and Results ................................................................................................... 10 G. Rationale and Justification for Additional Financing ...................................................................... 13 H. Relevance to Higher Level Objectives ............................................................................................ 14 II. DESCRIPTION OF ADDITIONAL FINANCING .................................................................... 15 A. Overview ..................................................................................................................................... 15 B. Project Development Objectives and Beneficiaries.................................................................... 15 C. Key Indicators and Results .......................................................................................................... 16 D. Components and Activities ......................................................................................................... 17 E. Climate Co-Benefits..................................................................................................................... 19 F. Implementation and Partnerships .............................................................................................. 20 G. Project Closing Date .................................................................................................................... 20 H. Budget and Financing.................................................................................................................. 20 I. Gender ........................................................................................................................................ 21 J. Citizen Engagement .................................................................................................................... 21 III. KEY RISKS ..................................................................................................................... 22 IV. APPRAISAL SUMMARY .................................................................................................. 24 A. Technical and Economic Analysis ................................................................................................... 24 B. Financial Management ................................................................................................................... 25 C. Procurement ................................................................................................................................... 27 D. Legal Operational Policies .............................................................................................................. 28 E. Environmental and Social ............................................................................................................... 28 V. WORLD BANK GRIEVANCE REDRESS .............................................................................. 29 VI SUMMARY TABLE OF CHANGES ..................................................................................... 30 VII DETAILED CHANGE(S) .................................................................................................... 30 VIII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING ................................................................... 34 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) BASIC INFORMATION – PARENT (Emergency Locust Response Program - P173702) Country Product Line Team Leader(s) Eastern and Southern IBRD/IDA Melissa Williams Africa Project ID Financing Instrument Resp CC Req CC Practice Area (Lead) P173702 Investment Project SAEA3 (9247) AFERI (81808) Agriculture and Food Financing Implementing Agency: Ethiopia Food Security Coordination Directorate, Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources & Food, Kenya Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Cooperation, Djibouti Ministry of Agriculture, Water, Livestock and Fish Resources ADD FIN TBL1 Is this a regionally tagged Country (ies) project? Yes Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda Bank/IFC Collaboration No Expected Approval Date Closing Date Guarantee Environmental and Social Risk Classification Expiration Date 20-May-2020 31-Dec-2024 High Financing & Implementation Modalities Parent [✓] Multiphase Programmatic Approach [MPA] [✓] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) [ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [ ] Fragile State(s) [ ] Performance-Based Conditions (PBCs) [✓] Small State(s) [ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Fragile within a Non-fragile Country [ ] Project-Based Guarantee [ ] Conflict [ ] Deferred Drawdown [✓] Responding to Natural or Man-made disaster [ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA) [ ] Hands-on Expanded Implementation Support (HEIS) Page 1 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) Development Objective(s) MPA Program Development Objective (PrDO) To respond to the threat posed by the locust outbreak and to strengthen systems for preparedness. Project Development Objectives (Phase 001) To respond to the threat posed by the locust outbreak and to strengthen systems for preparedness. Ratings (from Parent ISR) RATING_DRAFT_NO Implementation Latest ISR 24-Aug-2020 23-Feb-2021 17-Sep-2021 26-Apr-2022 Progress towards achievement of PDO S S S S Overall Implementation Progress (IP) MS MS MS MS Overall ESS Performance S MU MU MU Overall Risk S S S H Financial Management MS MS MS MS Project Management MS MS MS MS Procurement MS MS MS MS Monitoring and Evaluation S S S S BASIC INFORMATION – ADDITIONAL FINANCING (Emergency Locust Response Program Phase 1 Ethiopia Additional Finance - P178434) ADDFIN_TABLE Urgent Need or Capacity Project ID Project Name Additional Financing Type Constraints P178434 Emergency Locust Scale Up Yes Response Program Phase 1 Ethiopia Additional Finance Financing instrument Product line Approval Date Page 2 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) Investment Project IBRD/IDA 07-Jun-2022 Financing Projected Date of Full Bank/IFC Collaboration Disbursement 31-Dec-2026 No Is this a regionally tagged project? Country (ies) Yes Ethiopia Financing & Implementation Modalities Child [✓] Multiphase Programmatic Approach [MPA] [ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [✓] Fragile State(s) [ ] Performance-Based Conditions (PBCs) [ ] Small State(s) [ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Fragile within a Non-fragile Country [ ] Project-Based Guarantee [✓] Conflict [✓] Responding to Natural or Man-made disaster [ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA) [✓] Hands-on, Enhanced Implementation Support (HEIS) [ ] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) Disbursement Summary (from Parent ISR) Net Source of Funds Total Disbursed Remaining Balance Disbursed Commitments IBRD % IDA 147.00 78.49 118.37 40 % Grants % MPA Financing Data (US$, Millions) Financing MPA Program Financing Envelope 500.00 MPA FINANCING DETAILS (US$, Millions) MPA FINA NCI NG DET AILS (US$, Millions) Approve d Board Approved MPA Financing Envelope: 500.00 MPA Program Financing Envelope: 500.00 Page 3 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) of which Bank Financing (IBRD): 0.00 of which Bank Financing (IDA): 500.00 of which other financing sources: 0.00 PROJECT FINANCING DATA – ADDITIONAL FINANCING (Emergency Locust Response Program Phase 1 Ethiopia Additional Finance - P178434) PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions) SUMMARY -NewFi n1 SUMMARY (Total Financing) Proposed Additional Total Proposed Current Financing Financing Financing Total Project Cost 195.00 60.00 255.00 Total Financing 195.00 60.00 255.00 of which IBRD/IDA 195.00 60.00 255.00 Financing Gap 0.00 0.00 0.00 DETAILS - Additional Financing NewFinEnh1 World Bank Group Financing International Development Association (IDA) 60.00 IDA Grant 60.00 IDA Resources (in US$, Millions) Credit Amount Grant Amount Guarantee Amount Total Amount Ethiopia 0.00 60.00 0.00 60.00 National PBA 0.00 20.00 0.00 20.00 Regional 0.00 40.00 0.00 40.00 Total 0.00 60.00 0.00 60.00 Page 4 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) COMPLIANCE Policy Does the project depart from the CPF in content or in other significant respects? [ ] Yes [ ✔ ] No Does the project require any other Policy waiver(s)? [ ] Yes [ ✔ ] No ESStandards Environmental and Social Standards Relevance Given its Context at the Time of Appraisal E & S Standards Relevance Assessment and Management of Environmental and Social Risks and Impacts Relevant Stakeholder Engagement and Information Disclosure Relevant Labor and Working Conditions Relevant Resource Efficiency and Pollution Prevention and Management Relevant Community Health and Safety Relevant Land Acquisition, Restrictions on Land Use and Involuntary Resettlement Relevant Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Management of Living Natural Relevant Resources Indigenous Peoples/Sub-Saharan African Historically Underserved Traditional Relevant Local Communities Cultural Heritage Relevant Financial Intermediaries Not Currently Relevant ESStandardsNote NOTE: For further information regarding the World Bank’s due diligence assessment of the Project’s potential environmental and social risks and impacts, please refer to the Project’s Appraisal Environmental and Social Review Summary (ESRS). INSTITUTIONAL DATA Practice Area (Lead) Agriculture and Food Page 5 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) Contributing Practice Areas Social Protection & Jobs Climate Change and Disaster Screening This operation has been screened for short and long-term climate change and disaster risks PROJECT TEAM Bank Staff Name Role Specialization Unit Team Leader (ADM Melissa Williams Rural Development SAEA3 Responsible) Mohammad Imtiaz Akhtar Team Leader Livelihoods SAEA3 Alvi Welela Ketema Team Leader Agriculture-Ethiopia SAEA3 Shimelis Woldehawariat Procurement Specialist (ADM Procurement-Ethiopia EAERU Badisso Responsible) Ashraf Ahmed Hasan Al- Procurement Specialist Procurement EMNRU Wazzan Joel Buku Munyori Procurement Specialist Procurement-Kenya EAERU Melance Ndikumasabo Procurement Specialist Procurement-Djibouti EMNRU Tesfaye Ayele Procurement Specialist Procurement EAERU Yash Gupta Procurement Specialist Procure-Djibouti EMNRU Financial Management Henry Amena Amuguni Finance EAEG1 Specialist (ADM Responsible) Financial Management Franck Bessette Finance_Djibouti EMNGU Specialist Financial Management Leonard Mutuku Matheka Finance-Kenya/Somalia EAEG1 Specialist Financial Management Mekdim Hailu Yemane Finance-Ethiopia EAEG1 Specialist Financial Management Meron Tadesse Techane Finance-Ethiopia EAEG1 Specialist Social Specialist (ADM Caroline Emma Phillips Social-Coordinating SAES2 Responsible) Environmental Specialist (ADM Ruxandra Maria Floroiu Environment-Coordination SAEE2 Responsible) Abdelaziz Lagnaoui Environmental Specialist Pest Management Lead SAWE1 Page 6 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) Abu Yadetta Hateu Team Member TTL-Social Protection-Ethiopia HAES1 Ben Okindo Ayako Miranga Environmental Specialist Environment Overall SAEE2 Christine Makori Counsel Ethiopia LEGAM Donald Paul Mneney Team Member Procurement EAERU Eva Hasiner Team Member TTL-Agriculture-Djibouti SMNAG Hawanty Page Team Member Bank systems SAEA3 Jean O Owino Team Member Finance WFACS Legal-Coordinator and Margaret Png Counsel LEGAM Ethiopia Mario I. Mendez Team Member Operations SAEA3 Messeret Marcos Procurement Team Procurement AECE3 Mohammad Ilyas Butt Procurement Team Procurement EAERU Mohammed Bennani Procurement Team Procurement-Djibouti EMNRU Ndiga Akech Odindo Counsel Legal LEGAM Nikolai Alexei Sviedrys Procurement Team STEP EAWRU Wittich Noreen Beg Safeguards Advisor/ESSA ESF-Environment SAEE2 Peter Leonard Safeguards Advisor/ESSA ESF AFEDE Pierre Olivier Colleye Team Member Operations SAEA3 Samuel Lule Demsash Social Specialist Social-Ethiopia SAES2 Svetlana Khvostova Environmental Specialist Environment-Kenya SAEE2 Tamru Demsis Temam Environmental Specialist ESF SAEE2 Vinay Kumar Vutukuru Team Member TTL-Agriculture-Kenya SAEA2 Xiaoyue Hou Team Member Climate SAEA3 Yuliya Smolyar Team Member SP-Kenya HAES2 Extended Team Name Title Organization Location Page 7 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) I. BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR ADDITIONAL FINANCING A. Introduction 1. This Project Paper seeks the approval of the World Bank’s (WB) Board of Executive Directors to provide a grant in the amount of SDR 43.5 million (US$60 million equivalent) for an Additional Financing (AF) for the Emergency Locust Response Project (ELRP, P173702). The parent project is an emergency regional integration project using the Multi-phase Programmatic Approach (MPA), which includes IDA credits and IDA grants to four countries, namely Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. This project paper refers only to the ELRP project in Ethiopia (IDA Credit No. 6651 and Grant No. 6360). The AF is being processed under Paragraph 12 of Section III of the Investment Project Financing (IPF) Policy (Preparation of Investment Project Financing - Situations of Urgent Need of Assistance or Capacity Constraints). 2. The proposed EELRP Additional Financing (AF) interventions are consistent with the Program Development Objective (PrDO) of the ELRP MPA and with the Project Development Objective (PDO) of the parent project, “to prevent and respond to the threat posed by locust outbreaks and to strengthen systems for preparedness”. The parent project was declared effective on June 26, 2020, following the approval of the Project Implementation Manual (PIM). The proposed AF will scale up existing MPA interventions in Ethiopia, and therefore will contribute to the achievement of the PrDO. The AF interventions will be carried out in the same 153 districts as the parent project and 141 new districts that have also been impacted by locust. The project design has been adapted to the needs of the conflict situation in the country including using one or more third-party implementers in high risk of ongoing conflict areas. 3. Ethiopia is a frontline desert locust (DL) country with an endemic breeding population that combined with invading swarms from neighboring countries over three consecutive seasons - spring (March-June), summer (July –September), and winter (October-January). This came at a difficult time as Ethiopia was already supporting 6.7 million chronically food insecure people. Heightened security risk and travel restrictions in the conflict affected areas of Tigray, Amhara, and Afar also hampered the response, which combined with COVID-19, have compounded the food insecurity and poverty impacts of the upsurge. The GoE’s concerted efforts supported by ELRP, and other development partners, have helped to bring the outbreak to an end. However, the country still needs to enhance its system of surveillance and control and help those affected by the DL invasions (and the other compounding factors) – through a people-centric approach -- rebuild their livelihoods. B. MPA Program Context 4. The ELRP MPA was approved by the World Bank's Board of Executive Directors, "to respond to the threat posed by the locust outbreak and to strengthen systems for preparedness.” Phase 1 comprised US$160 million in grants and credits to Djibouti (US$6 million equivalent), Ethiopia (US$63 million equivalent), Kenya (US$43 million equivalent), and Uganda (US$48 million equivalent) 1. Phase 2, approved on June 29, 2020, provided a US$40 million grant equivalent to Somalia. Phase 3 was approved on June 8, 2021, with US$53.7 million grant equivalent to South Sudan and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). Under Phase 2, an AF of US$75 million grant equivalent to Somalia was approved on June 17, 2021. Phase 4, a US$65 million grant equivalent to Sudan is under preparation. The current 1. The credit was cancelled on April 22, 2022 in response to a request from the Government of Uganda for cancellation of the credit of US$48 million. Page 8 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) disbursement for all three active phases for the ERLP MPA stands at US$116.78 million and US$77.83 million for Phase 1. C. Updated MPA Program Framework 5. An overview of the allocations, commitments, and disbursement progress is provided in table 1 below, and a summary of project achievements is provided thereafter. Table 1: ELRP MPA Allocations, Commitments, and Disbursement Progress as of April 7, 2022 Original Disbursed Project Credit/Grant Amount Disbursement Phase ID Country Loan Number US$m US$m % Djibouti IDA 66620 6.00 4.39 73.1% 1 P173702 Ethiopia IDA 66510/D6360 63.00 56.27 89.3% Kenya IDA 66480/70530 78.00 17.17 22.0% Phase 1 Subtotal 147.00 77.83 53.0% 2 P174065 Somalia IDA D6770/D8570 115.00 38.26 33.2% Phase 2 Subtotal 115.00 38.26 33.2% IGAD IDA D8390 3.00 0.20 6.7% 3 P174546 South Sudan IDA D8290 50.70 0.49 1.0% Phase 3 Subtotal 53.70 0.69 1.3% ERLP TOTAL 315.70 116.78 37.0% Note: US$ disbursement figures calculated as of April 7, 2022, exchange rates of €1 = US$1.089400 and 1 XDR = US$1.372100 Source: World Bank Client Connection data downloaded on April 7, 2022 D. Ethiopia Country Context 6. Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Africa after Nigeria, and it has been among the fastest-growing economies in the world averaging 10 percent annual growth over the last fifteen years 2. The strong economy helped the country reduce urban and rural poverty; the proportion of the population below the national poverty line (US$1.90/person/day) dropped from 39 percent in 2004 to 24 percent in 2015 3. Regional inequalities, however, led to vulnerability, with consumption levels in the lowest population decile unchanged since 2005. Inequality between the urban and rural populations has also increased over time. Based on the 2019 Homegrown Economic Reform agenda, the government has launched a new 10- Year Perspective Plan (2020-2030), that endeavors to sustain the remarkable growth achieved in the past decade with greater involvement of the private sector and improved governance to promote more equitable growth. 7. The Ethiopian economy has faced headwinds from the COVID-19 pandemic. Like the rest of the world, Ethiopia has experienced social and economic challenges due to COVID-19. The direct and indirect economic impacts include disruption of manufacturing, services, and trade leading to widespread job loss and a significant reduction of household incomes and aggregate demand. Disrupted value chains and supply 2https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ethiopia/overview#1 3https://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/poverty/987B9C90-CB9F-4D93-AE8C- 750588BF00QA/AM2020/Global_POVEQ_ETH.pdf Page 9 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) chains increased the prices of food and basic goods, increasing food insecurity and negatively impacting poverty reduction gains achieved by the GoE since 2005. 8. Consecutive shocks from climate change have increased the vulnerability of farming and pastoralist households. Following consecutive drought and flood seasons, the East African Desert Locust (DL) upsurge was the worst in at least 25 years. The invasion has been particularly extensive in Ethiopia, causing significant damage to millions of hectares of farmland, pasture, and rangeland across more than 153 districts (woredas) across Afar, Amhara, Dire Dawa, Harari, Oromia, Somali, Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s Region (SNNPR), and Tigray. 9. Ethiopia has faced various political turmoil over the past few years. While the country’s political challenges have been mostly internal, the resulting economic and social costs of the unrest and disruptions have been particularly high and disruptive. Since the establishment of the new government in September 2018, several small and large demonstrations, riots, and disturbances have been noted throughout the country. Most recently and perhaps the most destructive in recent years (especially since November 2020) has been the conflict in the northern region of Tigray. Since the conflict began, it has spread to two other neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara. The ongoing social unrest, armed conflicts, and displacement of thousands of households have disrupted economic activities and social services in several regions. The conflict in Tigray is estimated to have cost the federal government billions of Ethiopian Birr in just the past year. Moreover, the destruction of services and infrastructure such as schools, health posts, airports, seaports, roads etc., have resulted in a significant setback of the development gains registered over the years. E. Sectoral and Institutional Context in Ethiopia 10. Agriculture is the backbone of the Ethiopian economy, accounting for more than 40 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, 80 percent of exports, and 75 percent of employment. The GoE, places a high priority on strengthening and diversifying the agricultural sector. Timely and decisive actions have enabled the government to contain the DL infestation through the ELRP parent project and with support from other development partners. 11. As part of the parent project, the GoE, through the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) led a well- coordinated ground and aerial control operation to curb the DL impacts. Over the past 18 months, the ELRP project has conducted survey and control operations in all project regions in partnership with the Regional Bureaus of Agriculture (RBoA) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). During this period, 503,404 ha of land has been carefully sprayed with select pesticides and 72,759 ha of damaged grazing land has been restored to productivity. 12. ELRP has mitigated further damage to the farmer, agro-pastoralist, and pastoralist Households (HHs). To date, the project has provided quality seed and fertilizer packets to 142,036 affected farmers and agro-pastoralists and emergency forage to 99,904 pastoralist HHs to restore local livelihoods. However, the total funding for the parent project could only support about 40 percent of the affected vulnerable households. F. Parent Project Status and Results 13. The Ethiopia ERLP (EELRP) was approved on May 20, 2020, as part of the ELRP MPA. It became effective on June 26, 2020 and met its disbursement conditions on October 15, 2020. The parent project has performed well despite challenges posed by COVID-19, climate shocks (flooding and now drought), and political unrest restricting access to some project areas. EELRP has disbursed 89 percent of funds and fully utilized 80 percent of its resources. It has undergone a Level 2 Restructuring in December 2021 that Page 10 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) reallocated US$18.0 million from Component 1 to Component 2 for addressing the immediate needs of adversely affected farmers and pastoralist households. 14. The project has four components aligning to the ELRP MPA design. In addition, the project component 2 regarding protection of local livelihoods is well aligned with and complements the safety nets support being provided by the Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP, P146883). Below is a brief description of each component and the achievements therein: 15. Component 1. Surveillance and Control Measures. The project adopted a multi-pronged approach for DL monitoring and control: (i) improving surveillance and assessment of locusts’ situation, and geographic exposure along with targeted aerial and ground spraying; (ii) institutional strengthening of select institutions and communities prone to climate change-induced locust breeding and infestation; and (iii) examining the effects of climate change on pest establishment, phenology, behavior etc. in specific agricultural settings. It is divided into the following three sub-components: 16. Sub-component 1.1. Continuous Surveillance. This subcomponent is designed to inform effective control of DL and identification of affected and at-risk areas and communities. This sub-component funds procurement and deployment of equipment, operational costs, and training of expert teams, for surveillance of bands and swarms in need of control. The surveillance data, provide timely information to assess the risk of locust outbreaks. Developing these information sources would help develop and operationalize a preventative management strategy including community-based monitoring that integrates climate change considerations with community observations. 17. Sub-component 1.2. Control Measures. This subcomponent ensures rapid response to any emerging swarms at three levels: backpack spraying, vehicle mounted spraying, and aerial spraying. The sub-component supports leasing of aviation services for aerial swarm control and equipping ground control teams (both backpack and vehicle mounted) to reduce locust populations and prevent their spread to new areas. 18. Sub-component 1.3: Risk Reduction and Management. This subcomponent focuses on Environmental Health and Safety (EHS), by monitoring and assessing the DL control related environmental and human health risks and ensure that adequate EHS measures are in place to eliminate/minimize any risks. 19. Component 2. Livelihoods Protection and Rehabilitation. This component finances assets and technical assistance/training for affected farming and pastoralist households to prevent food insecurity and the need for negative coping by households that would slow their recovery (for example, the sale of productive assets to buy food). It includes the following sub-components. 20. Sub-component 2.1. Livelihood Support: This subcomponent aims to, (i) deliver farmer packages to select farmers and agro-pastoralists for getting food and fodder production re-started after the DL devastation; and (ii) provide forage to affected pastorals to protect their livestock from further losses. The project uses the PSNP beneficiary targeting guidelines to identify affected farmer households, in partnership with the relevant regional and district level authorities. 21. Sub-component 2.1. Pasture Rehabilitation. This subcomponent focuses on protection of livelihoods in pastoralist communities through restoration of DL affected grazing lands. The primary focus is on strengthening livestock production by providing fodder seeds to pastoralists for restoration of pastures. Furthermore, rehabilitation of communal pasture is conducted through community mobilization to oversee the pasture seed distribution as well as seedlings and saplings wherever possible in line with the ecological variation. Page 11 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) 22. Component 3. Coordination and Early Warning Preparedness. This component focuses on the institutional strengthening of MoA’s Plant Protection Directorate through capacity building and technical assistance. The two sub-components are described below. 23. Sub-component 3.1. Strengthening Early Warning Systems. The project is providing support to MoA for strengthening an integrated system for locust detection, occurrence projection, early warning and systematic data analysis and comprehension. Priority is accorded to: (i) operationalizing early warning system to support prevention and rapid response to climate change induced locust infestation; and (ii) building capacity for rapid and targeted short-term responses and long-term adaptation planning. This will help improve the geospatial targeting and precision of locust spraying interventions under the component. 24. Sub-component 3.2. Improving Institutional Coordination and Community Engagement through improved communication systems. The purpose is for ensuring adequate government capacity to monitor the relationships between weather trends and desert locust territories and identify the conditions for an outbreak and early population increases. 25. The project has completed an assessment of the national DL surveillance and response system; adopted survey/data information collection tools identified by FAO/Desert Locust Information System; trained experts from the Plant Protection Directorate and regional bureau offices; and acquired a site in Arbaminch as a regional base for DL monitoring and control. 26. Component 4: Project Management. This component aims to oversee a timely implementation of the project for the achievement of the PDO in compliance with the World Bank procurement, financial management, environmental and social standards, and M&E requirements. The interventions include technical back-stopping and ensuring effective project monitoring and evaluation. 27. Parent Project Achievements. To date, the project has financed surveillance on over 10 million hectares (ha) of land and control spraying on 503,404 ha to curtail further invasion (79 percent of target), and organized community sensitization events for 45,030 participants (64 percent of target). It has also conducted winter season survey and located breeding sites in 92 districts (92 percent of target). To restore the livelihoods of thousands of DL affected poor and marginalized households, the project has distributed seed and fertilizer packets to 142,036 deserving farmers (91 percent of target) of which 34,688 were women; distributed emergency forage packages to 99,904 households (88.9 percent of target) which has contributed to the restoration of 72,759 ha of pasture/rangeland (89.9 percent of target). Training provided to the beneficiary farmers and pastoralists has shown significant results. Training focused on simple climate- smart agriculture (CSA) practices and improved agricultural technologies resulted in increased productivity and increased income for farmers. The project has completed 12 regional performance monitoring reports on livelihood program implementation (100 percent of target) and conducted two consultative workshops with project regions and humanitarian organizations on assessment reports and financial summary (67 percent of target). Under Component 3, the project completed an assessment of the national DL surveillance and response system and developed a MoA endorsed action plan, including staffing and infrastructure. In addition, MoA has (i) scaled up the use of FAO Desert Locust Information System recommended survey/data information collection tools; (ii) trained experts from the Plant Protection Directorate and regional bureaus; and (iii) confirmed one site, in Arbaminch, as a regional base for DL monitoring and control. 28. The AF will incorporate the learning and experiences of the parent project—such as, increasing client capacity to manage fiduciary and Environmental and Social (E&S) risk; improving the capacity to gather, analyze, and disseminate project data. The AF will place more emphasis on training and capacity building of project staff at all levels. The AF will scale-up farmer training on CSA practices, improve farming Page 12 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) technologies in both crop and livestock farming, and put more emphasis on long-lasting livelihood strengthening activities to ensure sustainability. This training will be delivered to existing beneficiaries in partnership with Development Agents from MoA’s structure. G. Rationale and Justification for Additional Financing 29. While it appears that DL upsurge is finally ending in the Horn of Africa 4, the threat to Ethiopia’s agriculture, livestock, natural resource base and livelihoods remains. As per the FAO Desert Locust Situation Update of March 2, 2022, due to dry ecological conditions with no recent rains, during the month of February, no significant locust swarms have been detected in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. Nevertheless, in Eastern Ethiopia, small bands of immature adults were detected moving southwards and the possibility of a residual infestation still exists. Earlier, the January 6, 2022, edition of the Locust Situation Update noted that towards the end of December 2021, a few swarms migrated from Somalia to Southern Ethiopia, and it recommended that vigilance and preparedness should be maintained in Northern Kenya and Southern Ethiopia. Southeastern and Southern regions are precited to receive below normal and normal rainfall in the first half of 2022 5. Therefore, ecological conditions in these parts of the country would be conducive for locust breeding and hopper development and as a result, ‘active monitoring and intensive surveillance and control operation is crucial’. 30. As a frontline DL country, Ethiopia requires continuous surveillance and rapid control response. Endemic breeding happens in three seasons of the year and ongoing security could interfere with timely identification of gregarization. In response, the project has mobilized experts, survey, and control assets (rented aircraft and helicopters), field survey vehicles, and vehicle mounted sprayers to regularly conduct surveys and control operations for the foreseeable future. As the surveillance and control operation costs for the ground and aerial surveys have proved to be significantly more than expected, additional funds are needed to ensure mitigation of any further damages and destruction of crops, fodder, pastures, natural vegetation, and livelihoods. In the final analysis, in Ethiopia, it is critically important that regular DL surveys and vigilance are carried out for the foreseeable future. 31. ELRP provided the much-needed timely support to the GoE for responding to the DL infestation by strengthening the institutional arrangements. This includes: (i) training and skills enhancement of government and key stakeholders’ staff; (ii) acquiring equipment and tools for surveillance, control, risk reduction and management; (iii) support for strengthening early warning preparedness; and (iv) providing support to affected households to restore farming, livestock, and livelihoods. 32. At the time that the parent project was approved, it was understood that the GoE would need additional funds to fully respond to the DL threat. In addition to the additional funding needs identified during the preparation of the parent project, In addition to the extra funding needs identified during the preparation of the parent project, price inflation for inputs and transport during implementation meant higher operating costs than anticipated, and those costs are expected to rise further with the impacts of the war in Ukraine. For example, to date GoE has been able to provide livelihood support to only 40 percent of the affected poor and marginalized households. While strengthening of national locust control center is underway, rehabilitation and upgradation of three regional locust centers are pending. Capacity 4 https://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/en/info/info/index.html. FAO declared the desert locust outbreak to be an upsurge in February 2020, and it declared the upsurge had ended in March 2022. To read more about the build up to the upsurge and the early response see the World Bank, 2020, Emergency Locust Response Program (P173702) Project Appraisal Document (Report No. PAD3904). 5 GoE’s Desert Locust Bulletin, Issue 186, dated February 2022. Page 13 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) strengthening of government staff and community scouts need to be scaled up to adequately cover all project regions. 33. The GoE has, therefore, requested additional financing of US$60 million to strengthen government systems in DL surveillance and control; and to support affected communities, especially poor and marginalized farmers, and pastoralists, by protecting livelihoods related to restoring farming land, pastures, and rangelands. Moreover, the AF will support capacity development and establishment of functional systems for early warning preparedness from local to national levels by bringing together all relevant stakeholders. 34. In addition, the GoE and World Bank can bring technical knowledge for restoring agriculture, protecting livelihoods, and enhancing resilience. The World Bank with its considerable experience in strengthening farming and livestock management practices, protecting, and diversifying local livelihood, and building community resilience and adaptation, is well placed to provide this much needed technical support. 35. The AF is compliant with the World Bank’s Investment Project Financing’ (IPF) Policy and the accompanying procedure for AF. The EELRP has been performing well, quickly disbursing and ensuring timely implementation progress as an emergency project. The latest Implementation Support Mission in August 2021 rated the overall implementation progress and progress towards the achievement of PDO as Satisfactory. The project is in full compliance with all legal covenants and there are no outstanding audits or overdue reports. 36. The PDO will remain the same, but adjustments will be made to the results framework in-line with the increased resources and additional coverage by the AF. As the AF is requested mainly for scaleup purposes, no new components or new target locations will be planned. Implemented within the same eight regions, the project aims to scale up its efforts to support more vulnerable households in additional 143 districts. H. Relevance to Higher Level Objectives 37. The proposed AF remains aligned with the World Bank Group’s (WBG) strategic priorities to end extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity as well as the Country Partnership Framework for Ethiopia discussed by the Board on June 27, 2017 for the period Fiscal Year (FY)18–22 (CPF, Report No. 115135-ET). The proposed emergency project aligns with the “Building Resilience and Inclusiveness” pillar of the CPF, and it also strongly contributes to the “Promoting Structural and Economic Transformation through Increased Productivity” pillar. The AF will directly address the WBG’s twin goals of alleviating poverty and boosting shared prosperity, and it will contribute to several CPF results framework targets such as enhanced resilience and inclusiveness, increase in agricultural yield, job creation, natural resource management, and climate Co-Benefits. The project is fully aligned with the MoA Locust Control Strategy. While this project was not included in the CPF for Ethiopia, the emergency has increased the priority of locust control and response to protect vulnerable pastoral, agro-pastoral, and farming community in Ethiopia and remains aligned with the CPF’s objectives. 38. The AF will contribute to strategic goals of climate resilience and is aligned with the World Bank’s Climate Change Action Plan as well as GoE’s national and regional priorities as highlighted in the Ethiopia Climate Resilient Green Economy National Adaptation Plan (2019) and National Adaptation Plan Implementation Roadmap (2020). Furthermore, the AF integrates climate and development interventions by facilitating higher adaptation of climate smart inputs and technologies through improved farmer Page 14 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) awareness, demonstrations through micro-project grants and development of resilient adaptation supportive infrastructure. II. DESCRIPTION OF ADDITIONAL FINANCING A. Overview 39. While the DL upsurge has officially ended in East Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, there are still outbreaks in Ethiopia that need to be contained. As a result, the national status for DL remains at “threat” level. Given the constraints to surveillance presented by the ongoing conflict and the potential for rains in the spring and summer breeding areas, the risk for additional swarms remains. The AF will continue to fund the full menu of interventions offered under the parent project—surveillance and control, livelihood rehabilitation, and improving preparedness. The emphasis on these activities will, however, shift as per the changing circumstances on the ground. In addition, the project will continue to provide financing for increased surveillance including building the trained network of local stakeholders to contribute to that surveillance. Resources for control activities will also be provided to enable timely response to any identified DL swarms. 40. The project will scale up support to livelihood restoration for affected farmers and pastoralists, given the increased food insecurity being experienced by affected households in the project areas with the compounding impacts of COVID-19. Additionally, the project will also scale up support to a more robust system of surveillance, early warning, and response to help prevent future upsurges given that climate volatility could make such outbreaks more prevalent. 41. The project design is adapting to the needs of the conflict situation in the country. The conflict situation in Tigray and parts of neighboring regions, has increased the risk to implementers and escalated the cost of implementation. The World Bank is working with the Project Implementation Unit (PIU), MoA, and the Ministry of Finance (MoF) to develop a plan to implement in High Risk of Ongoing Conflict Areas (HROCA) using one or more Third-Party Implementer (TPI). The GoE has confirmed that for TPI, the HROCA is defined at Tigray, where project implementation will take place in 26 districts. The government has also confirmed that TPI interventions would be within Component 2 such as the provision of farmer kits, emergency fodder, and pasture regeneration activities. EELRP is already responding to the locust emergency, and its Component 2 activities, especially the distribution of farmer kits are common to a humanitarian response based on the experience in South Sudan and other countries. The design currently does not envision supporting the distribution of direct food aid; however, if that becomes necessary, the appropriate World Bank procedures will be followed. GoE has confirmed that: (i) it has selected United Nations Office for Project Services UNOPS as TPI for some projects including Response – Recovery – Resilience for Conflict Affected Communities in Ethiopia Project (3R4CACE, P177233) and EELRP AF; (ii) MoF will contract the TPI; and (iii) the projects will contribute to the terms of reference for the TPIs. B. Project Development Objectives and Beneficiaries 42. There is no change to the ELRP MPA PrDO or to the PDO of the parent project in Ethiopia. The PrDO is “to respond to the threat posed by the locust outbreak and to strengthen systems for preparedness”. The PDO for EELRP is "to prevent and respond to the threat posed by locust infestation outbreak and strengthen national systems for preparedness." 43. The project will continue to focus on the DL affected poor and marginalized communities primarily in the Ethiopian lowlands and midlands. The project beneficiaries comprise both directly and indirectly affected communities. The households and communities that are not directly affected by the locust infestation will benefit from the locust control measures by minimizing the overall damage and adverse Page 15 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) effects on the local and regional economy. While there are still a significant number of affected households needing support to recover from the first round of locust invasion, the 2019/20 assessment has identified an additional 518,684 households in critical need of livelihood support. In total, the AF would directly benefit 518,684 affected households, including farmers, pastoralists, agro-pastoralists, youth, widows, widowers, and female-headed households. C. Key Indicators and Results 44. While the PDO indicators from the parent project will remain the same, due to the additional inputs AF will provide to farmers and pastoralists the end of project target for the PDO indicator “Land area in ha of affected pasture/rangeland restored to productivity” has been revised upwards. The changes to the results framework are as follows: Table 2: Changes to Results Framework Targets Revised Original Revised Indicator Project End Target Target Target PDO Level Land area in Hectares (ha) sprayed for locust control 834,000 No Change 6 834,000 Land area in ha of affected pasture/rangeland restored to 81,000 154,168 235,168 productivity Intermediate Level Component 1 Surveliance and Control Measures Locust surveillance plans (number) in place, and implemented Yes No Change Yes (Number) Pesticide inventory stored in accordance with appropriate Yes No Change Yes international safety standards (Yes/No) Locust monitoring system operational (Yes/No) Yes No Change Yes Component 2 Livelihoods Protection and Rehabilitation Affected farmers (number) receiving input packets (Number) 156,000 144,695 300,695 Affected livestock holding households (number) receiving 113,208 104,779 217,987 emergency fodder (Number) Component 3 Coordinatin and Early Warning Preparedness Awareness raising communications campaigns conducted Yes No Change Yes (Yes/No) Component 4 Project Management Program funds (US$) disbursed within six months after program 50 percent No Change 50 percent effectiveness 6 The original target reflects the baseline value of 196,812 + the target to be achieved in the project of 637,188. Thus far in the project, the client has sprayed 503,404 hectares against desert locust. More spraying is anticipated because swarms continue to form inside Ethiopia; however, the World Bank decided that setting targets for spraying pesticide sets a perverse incentive to use pesticide. Therefore, the original target will be kept and the number of hectares that are treated will be tracked. Page 16 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) D. Components and Activities 45. The AF will complement the Ethiopia parent project components as summarized below: 46. Component 1 Surveillance and Control Measures (US$13.9 million equivalent). While the DL upsurge has officially ended after two years, heightened surveillance and rapid control response are still a priority, especially in Ethiopia where endemic breeding happens in three seasons of the year and where ongoing security could prevent timely identification of gregarization. The project will continue to fund all three sub-components. 47. Subcomponent 1.1 Continuous Surveillance will inform effective control of locust operations and identification of affected and at-risk communities for assistance under Component 2. This sub-component will fund equipment, operational costs, and continued use of drones for surveillance of known breeding and invasion locations across the country. Gathering and analysis of surveillance data, supplemented with satellite imagery and other geospatial technologies, will continue to provide timely information to assess the risk of impending locust outbreaks and help inform the role of climate change and weather variability on the distribution, incidence, and intensity of locusts. The project will also continue to support community- based monitoring with training of community scouts and village leaders and forecasting that integrates climate change considerations with community observations. 48. Subcomponent 1.2 Control measures will continue to be financed to ensure rapid response to any swarms that emerge across the locust-affected areas. Control measures are undertaken at three levels: backpack spraying, vehicle mounted spraying, and aerial spraying. The AF will fund the leasing of aviation services for aerial swarm control and equipping ground control teams (both backpack and vehicle mounted) to reduce locust populations and prevent their spread to new areas. The GoE intends to purchase agrichemicals for control operations and to use in Component 2. See the Section IV, Appraisal Summary for a full discussion of that issue. 49. Subcomponent 1.3 Risk Reduction and Management will continue to focus on EHS, by monitoring and assessing the environmental and human health risks associated with any locust control operations and implement the health, environmental, and safety measures to reduce risks to an acceptable minimum. The AF will fund the procurement of additional personal protective equipment (PPE) and EHS monitoring activities in the field. EHS measures include: (i) monitoring for human health impacts—e.g., cholinesterase testing of frontline control workers and testing for contamination of soil and water from agrichemical use; (ii) conducting situational assessments of swarms to determine the safest and most effective control strategy and protection measures; (iii) training for farmers, scouts, and experts on safe pesticide management and control; and (iv) raising awareness of officials and the general public in treatment areas through communication campaigns about safety measures to take in the event of swarm spraying. In addition, the project will carry out a trial of non-chemical egg field destruction and hopper control practices in five locations across the project area (focused breeding areas). 50. Component 2 Livelihoods Protection and Rehabilitation (US$31.4 million equivalent). The primary purpose of the component is to support poor and vulnerable households in recovering from the loss of productive assets and restore livelihoods that have been damaged or lost due to DL swarms and further compounded by COVID-19, flooding, droughts, and conflict. For this, the component will continue to provide: (i) a seed/fertilizer package to affected farmers/agro-pastoralists to support farming in the upcoming cropping season; and (ii) fodder seed to the affected communities to rehabilitate destroyed pastures and grazing areas. The support will continue for raising awareness, providing climate smart farmer packages, and introducing good agricultural and livestock management practices to build local resilience and adaptation to climate change, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and diversifying local Page 17 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) livelihoods. In addition, interventions such as the planting of legumes and grasses suitable to the local ecological conditions will be promoted to enhance soil fertility, landscape resilience and to conserve local biodiversity. The project will continue to coordinate and complement PSNP and the World Bank-IFAD financed Lowlands Livelihood Resilience Project (P178107), and other similar projects. 51. During the 2019/2020 Meher cropping season, an impact assessment revealed that out of 12.8 million hectares of crop cultivated area, 1.3 million ha of crop land and 0.953 million ha of pastureland had been damaged. With the AF, the project plans to cover 10 percent (139,592 ha) of the damaged cropland and 14.6 percent (149,343 ha) of pastureland and provide livelihood support to additional 93,061 farmers, agro-pastoralists, and 79,833 pastoralist households. The AF will enable scaling up of Component 2 activities to additional 147 districts bringing the total number of (parent project + AF) districts to 294 within the existing 8 project regions of Afar, Amhara, Dire Dawa, Harari, Oromia, SNNPR, Somali, and Tigray. 52. Subcomponent 2.1 Livelihoods Support. This subcomponent will continue distributing: (i) farmer packages to additional/unserved DL affected farmers, agro-pastoralists, and pastoral households for food and fodder production; and (ii) in emergency situations providing forage to the affected pastoral households to protect their livestock. Climate-resilient quality seed packages for crop production would be determined in consultation with the target beneficiaries with due consideration to prevalent annual and biennial crops according to local agro-ecological zones. Accordingly, for the Meher/Belg planting season, the project would support the distribution of quality seeds of 5-7 staple crops such as maize, wheat, sorghum; quality vegetable seeds; and fodder grass seeds. All project regions will procure quality seeds from government seed enterprises, private companies, and seed cooperatives. The project will continue to use the PSNP beneficiaries’ targeting guidelines, the findings of the MoA and FAO led DL damage and impact assessment, and consultations with the targeting communities, especially the community food security taskforce for PSNP districts. The sub-component will support agroecosystem management approaches that enhance the resilience of farms and landscapes to changes in climate and pests. The AF livelihood support will be provided to an additional 144,695 farmers and agro-pastoralists, and 104,779 pastoralist households. 53. Sub-component 2.2 Pasture Rehabilitation. The AF will enable the project to continue its efforts for the rehabilitation of pastures and grazing lands. The interventions include providing climate-resilient fodder seeds, seedlings, and saplings, with due consideration to the local grass/forage varieties and agro- ecological zones; and improving pastoralists’ pasture management practices to increase forage availability from pastures on a sustainable basis. The AF support will enable the restoration of an additional 154,168 ha of affected pasture/grazing land to productivity. 54. Component 3: Coordination and Early Warning Preparedness (US$11.7 million equivalent). Additional financing will support the following two sub-components: 55. Subcomponent 3.1 Strengthening Early Warning Systems. The ongoing capacity building interventions for MoA would continue to: (i) operationalize an integrated system for locust detection, occurrence projection and early warning (backed up by a methodological data collection and analysis system and access to control operation assets such as elocust3 7, drones, rental helicopters, and fixed wing aircrafts; and (ii) strengthen the DL control units in the Plant Protection Directorate at the federal and regional levels. It would include training on survey tools, use of Geographical Information System (GIS) and remote sensing for early warning and response, streamlining and strengthening of data collection and transfer capabilities, institutional strengthening of Migratory Pest Locust Control Unit and National Locust Control Centre, the 7FAO eLocust3 is a highly effective data recording and transmission system for crop pest monitoring. https://www.fao.org/resilience/resources/resources-detail/en/c/437998/ Page 18 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) civil works for the construction and operationalization of three regional locust control centers and sub- centers in the front-line locust breeding areas. The project will also equip relevant local institutions with skills, systems and equipment on DL forecasting, surveillance, and control. 56. Subcomponent 3.2 Improving Institutional Coordination and Community Engagement through improved communication systems. With the AF’s support, the project will continue building local capacities for active involvement of participating communities in early warning, monitoring, and surveillance of DL in the backdrop of variation in temperature and rainfall and climate change. The interventions would include: (i) identification, coordination, and engagement of key stakeholders, strengthening early warning communication arrangements at the local level; (ii) awareness raising about environmental and health risks; and (iii) enhancing skills for safe transportation, storage, handling, and spraying of pesticides for locust control. Component 4 Project Management (US$3.0 million equivalent). The AF will sustain the project management costs including operating costs, training and costs associated with implementation, financial management, procurement, environmental and social management, monitoring and evaluation, communications, and knowledge management. Furthermore, the AF will strengthen the use of already launched Geo-Enabling Monitoring and Supervision System. E. Climate Co-Benefits 57. The agricultural systems of the DL affected countries are highly vulnerable to climate change and weather variability. Findings of a recent climate modeling and climate change and disaster risk screening carried out by the World Bank indicate that global warming will lead to higher-than-average rainfall in the sub-region, stimulating higher vegetation growth and causing a conducive breeding ground for locusts. This AF will complement the parent project in (i) addressing vulnerability to the climate-induced locust upsurge and preventing future infestations by strengthening capacity for ex ante surveillance and control operations as part of national and regional early warning and early response systems; and (ii) scaling up investments for building resilience by preventing loss of productive assets, rehabilitating agriculture, pastures, grazing areas, promoting climate-smart agricultural and livestock management practices, and strengthening local livelihoods. 58. The project will seek to minimize GHG emissions across financed investments. The project will include activities from the approved list in Annex A.C.1 of the Joint Report on Multilateral Development Banks’ (MDB) Climate Finance. 8 Part of project activities qualify as generating climate change mitigation Co- Benefits under Category 4.1. Agriculture: Agricultural projects that improve existing carbon pools, from the A.C.1 List of activities eligible for classification as climate mitigation finance. The GHG accounting results for the MPA phase 1 countries are summarized in Section IV, Project Appraisal Summary. 59. The AF would continue to strengthen Ethiopia’s adaptive capacity against climate-induced shocks by further building resilience and adaptation in the project regions and districts in the face of increasing and frequent climate-related disasters, such as locust outbreaks, floods, and droughts. In doing so, it will build the resilience of affected and at-risk communities against climate shocks by providing climate-resistant seeds and promoting good agricultural and livestock management practices. The AF will also support continued investment in interventions that will enhance farmers’ participation in activities that will support environmental management by supporting adoption of (a) sustainable soil and water management 8Joint Report on Multilateral Development Bank’s Climate Finance (2019). http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/650791574955718829/2018-joint-report-on-mdbs-climate-finance.pdf Page 19 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) practices; (b) climate-smart practices for crops and livestock; and (c) livelihood support/diversification initiatives to further improve local resilience against climate and other shocks. F. Implementation and Partnerships 60. The AF implementation arrangements would remain the same as for the parent project, and the Food Security Coordination Directorate (FSCD) of the MoA will implement the project. The PIU is already adequately staffed with well-trained environment specialist, social development specialist, accountant, procurement officer, finance officer and M&E officer. All project staff have been trained on World Bank procedures and have ELRP implementation experience for nearly 20 months. The state minister for agriculture development, who oversees plant and animal protection, will continue to provide overall oversight for the project with the assistance of heads of RBoAs. The PIU carries the overall coordination, project management, financial management, procurement, ESF, periodic financial audit, M&E and coordination functions. Accordingly, the PIU provides the guidance, direction, support and inputs to the relevant directorates and units at the federal, regional and district levels that are engaged in project implementation. A steering committee co-chaired by MoA and MoF provides strategic oversight and direction to the project. 61. The project fund-flow will remain the same. There are no changes in FM requirements or procedures. M&E arrangements will also remain the same as the parent project. All implementation arrangements at the regional and district levels will continue to be implemented through RBoAs. 62. Given the need to reach households that are in HROCA, the GoE has selected two UN agencies UNOPS and UNICEF to serve as TPIs. In case of EELRP AF, the GoE has identified UNOPS as the TPI. Over time, the conflict affected area definition may be adjusted as needed. 63. Third party implementation in conflict affected areas will be limited to livelihood protection activities in component 2. More specifically, implementation will include the identification of beneficiaries and distribution of seed and fertilizer packages. G. Project Closing Date 64. The project closing date will be extended by 49 months from November 30, 2022, to December 31, 2026. H. Budget and Financing 65. The AF will be financed through uncommitted IDA financing available in the MPA financing envelope. Project costs will be allocated across all four components as shown in table 3 below. Table 3: ELRP Costs (US$ million) Total Parent Project Components Project* ELRP AF Cost Component 1: Surveillance and Control Measures 25.1 13.9 39 Component 2: Livelihoods Protection and Rehabilitation 36.0 31.4 67.4 Component 3: Coordination and Early Warning Preparedness 1.3 11.7 13 Component 4: Project Management 0.6 3 3.6 Total Financing 63 60 123 *Parent Project costs reflect a restructuring that moved US$18 million from component 1 to component 2 completed in Page 20 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) December 2021. I. Gender 66. Women and girls are disproportionately impacted by multiple shocks and disasters as they face additional socio-economic challenges. The low status of women anchored in the prevalent social practices and norms, high prevalence of Gender Based Violence (GBV), acceptability of GBV (such as early/forced marriage, intimate partner violence) and high levels of poverty, are likely to further increase the community’s vulnerability to Sexual Exploitation and Abuse (SEA)/GBV. While project staff and workforce deployed to the locust response will undergo gender orientation and training, women and girls may face SEA. 67. Building on the experience from the parent project, the AF will further strengthen its focus on targeting more female beneficiaries. Under Component 2, the parent project has so far distributed seed/fertilizer packages to 142,036 farmers including 34,688 women. The project has also reached 11 percent of pastoralist HHs that are female headed households. Moreover, in its awareness creation and community sensitization sessions, 49.3 percent of the participants were women. 68. The AF will continue to apply similar targeting principles that further increase the inclusion of women-headed farmers and pastoralist households and ensure that women can benefit equally from all opportunities offered under the project. The project will continue to promote women empowerment, tackle gender concerns and GBV/SEA risks, and add strong guidelines and practices for protecting women on construction sites from GBV/SEA. In addition there will be awareness raising and gender sensitization workshops for local communities including men, boys, women and girls; active participation of women and girls in community consultations and participation for ensuring that their concerns and suggestions are adequately registered and incorporated into all project interventions; priority identification and support to livelihood opportunities for women and girls; and promoting safe work environment at home and in the field for women and girls. Under Component 2, the project is targeting 518,682 households as direct beneficiaries of livelihood support. Of this overall target, the project aims to cover 155,605 female headed households. The project M&E staff is tasked with tracking and reporting the proportion of women and women-headed households benefiting from the livelihood support as planned. J. Citizen Engagement 69. The AF will use the citizen engagement mechanisms already in place and will follow the same delivery model to ensure timely and meaningful consultations to meet project and stakeholder needs. To date, the project has: i) established Grievance Redress Mechanism (GRM) committees in 141 project districts; (ii) awareness raising sessions about the availability and how to access the GRM system has been organized for 164,000 community members; (iii) grievance redress committees, consisting of one community member and six members from various sectors have been established in the 141 districts; and iv) complaint registration forms adopted from PSNP have been translated to respective regional languages and distributed to all project regions. Robust community engagements would continue and would expand to the new project districts. The AF will continue to be largely a community-based project with strong community engagement throughout implementation, starting from the selection of beneficiaries to the resolution of grievances. Specifically, sensitization about the availability of a project GRM to support the systematic uptake, processing, and resolution of project-related complaints and grievances would continue. This would be coupled with targeted consultations with key community representatives (for instance, elders and traditional leaders in the case of indigenous peoples/pastoralists) to implement appropriate livelihood interventions. Page 21 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) III. KEY RISKS 70. As a multi-country MPA, the risk ratings for the parent project reflect the risk for all countries participating in Phase 1 of the ELRP MPA—i.e., Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya. The ratings in the risk table at the front of this project paper reflect the combined ratings for Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya. Of the eight risk categories measured, the ratings between the parent project and the Ethiopia AF align on six. The only two where the Ethiopia AF diverges from the rating in the parent project are macroeconomic risk and fiduciary risk. This section clarifies the rating of the parent project, the rating for this additional grant, and the mitigation steps that this additional grant will apply. 71. The overall risk for the parent project and for the Ethiopia AF is High. The rating for Ethiopia is driven by political and governance, stakeholder, and environmental and social risks, followed by macroeconomic and fiduciary risks, which are substantial. All other risks categories for the Ethiopia AF are rated moderate. Given the emergency nature of this project for putting forward a bold response to the DL infestation, a significant degree of risk is inherent in an operation of this magnitude and scope involving several highly conflict-ridden vulnerable areas, every effort has been made to adopt a flexible approach and integrate a sizeable number of mitigation measures into the project design. 72. To manage these risks, the AF would: (i) extend regular guidance and technical assistance with quality assurance elements to help the PIU in project implementation; (ii) use emergency procedures, such as direct contracting and expedited contract approvals; (iii) enable partnerships with key development partners like UNOPS and FAO; (iv) ensure that the lessons learnt from the ongoing implementation of project are regularly incorporated into the project implementation strategy and plan; and (v) on needs basis, use the services of third parties such as UN agencies and NGOs with proven track record of work experience in FCV environments to complement the project staff facing limitations and safety risks in volatile and high risk project areas. 73. Political and Governance risk is rated High for the parent project and for the Ethiopia AF. In Ethiopia, this is due to ongoing conflict in Tigray and neighboring regions and local conflicts in other parts of the country. This risk will be mitigated by continued focus on strong engagement with and ownership of the regional government and district leadership and local communities. The World Bank will continue to work with the client to manage implementation in the HROCA. The use of a third-party implementer in Tigray will also manage the risk to implementation in the conflict area where government services cannot reach the ground. Currently, the GoE has defined the area for the third-party implementer as Tigray region. If this needs to be expanded the TPI contract can be amended as necessary. 74. Macroeconomic risk is rated high for the parent project and Substantial for the Ethiopia AF. Ethiopia’s medium-term economic prospects remain promising, but contingent on the resolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, the impacts of the war in Ukraine, civil strife, and climate change. In 2021, the overall economic growth rate slowed down considerably to 2.4 percent. The fiscal deficit is projected to increase as tax policy reforms are delayed due to COVID–19. Ongoing conflict and the pandemic exacerbate fiscal risks. It will remain a concern especially if its effects prove protracted and the economic recovery is slower than anticipated. The project initiatives will mitigate these risks by enhancing the resilience and productivity of the agriculture sector in Ethiopia which will contribute to the overall growth of the economy. 75. Fiduciary risk is rated High for the parent project and Substantial for the Ethiopia AF. The rating for the parent project is driven by complex procurement requirements for Djibouti and capacity challenges at the county level for Kenya. In Ethiopia, all procurement will be managed at the federal level and the project will continue to use the establish procurement unit under the Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP), so there is a reasonable capacity to carry out FM and procurement activities in the implementing Page 22 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) agencies for the AF. However, there are gaps in procurement processing and record keeping. Delays in procurement processing and procurement decision making are the areas that need improvement. FM activities have progressed well although there are gaps and risks in obtaining regional reports on commodity distribution (seed, feed, fertilizer) and consolidation at MoA; delayed budget preparation, proclamation and low utilization; some internal control weaknesses noted on the external audit; potential lack of documentation for commodity distributions in conflict affected areas; and involvement of third-party implementation agencies in high risk of ongoing conflict areas which creates complexities in fund flow, reporting and auditing arrangements. The mitigation measures include signing memorandum of understanding with regions to ensure the roles and responsibilities in terms of resource utilization; establishing regular consolidated commodity reporting mechanisms by strengthening the engagement of MoA and supporting regions; improving budget preparation and proclamation processes, and addressing implementation bottlenecks in a timely manner; addressing internal control weaknesses by developing action plan and following up with regions; and clearly defining FM arrangement requirements in contractual agreements with third-party implementation agencies and direct payments to be made by the World Bank to these entities. 76. The Environmental and Social (E&S) risks are rated High for the parent project and the Ethiopia AF. The adverse E&S risks and impacts anticipated from the AF activities include potential soil erosion, dust emissions, generation of both hazardous and non-hazardous waste, occupational health and safety risks related to construction and rehabilitation activities, community health and safety impacts, contamination and poisoning for farmers and livestock application teams, animal diseases, potential degradation of pastures and rangelands, exclusion of vulnerable people and groups, risk of exacerbating social tension both within and between communities through selection of interventions, and safety and security risks for workers and beneficiaries. These risks will be mitigated through the rigorous adoption of the E&S risk management instruments that have been prepared for the parent project. The introduction of civil works adds a new element of risk on construction worksites. The World Bank is working with the client to add recognized good practice guidelines to the existing ESF instruments, all of which have already been triggered, to reduce the risk to communities and especially women near the construction or working at the construction site, in addition to worker health and safety guidelines and environment and social screening before site selection. 77. Stakeholder risk is rated High as for the parent project and the Parent Project and the Ethiopia AF. Diverse groups of communities and stakeholders are the hallmark of rural Ethiopia. The project involves surveillance and locust control operations that could involve the use of risky agrichemicals. On top of this, the conflict situation could challenge different stakeholder groups’ (e.g., community leaders) confidence in the project activities. In addition, there is a risk that some communities could feel excluded by the program. The implementation experience of the parent project has further highlighted the importance of strengthening partnerships and coordination mechanisms with agencies like UNOPS and FAO, other bilateral partners involved in locust control efforts, and participating communities. The AF will address this risk by: (i) further strengthening of partnerships between MoA with agencies like UNOPS, FAO, World Food Programme (WFP), communities, and other development partners working in the field by ensuring periodic joint stocktaking exercises and systematic & regular sharing of information regarding project progress; (ii) ensuring continuous engagement with all the key stakeholders as outlined in the project stakeholder engagement plan for sharing of project information and seeking feedback from these stakeholders; and (iii) effectively using project communication materials and available channels to reach out to communities and raise awareness about locusts, the control methods and how to remain safe during control operations. The project is also training community scouts and other leaders on locust identification. For Component 2 Page 23 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) operations, the targeting criteria and mobilization systems in the PSNP are designed to maximize the inclusion of all impacted households within communities. IV. APPRAISAL SUMMARY A. Technical and Economic Analysis 78. The design of the project remains relevant given the need to detect and control DL swarms and outbreaks, especially ones emerging from conflict areas where surveillance is not practicable. The emphasis in component 1 will shift from control to surveillance and training stakeholders to be active members of the surveillance system. 79. The success in controlling the upsurge, creates space to focus on the restoration of farm and pastoral livelihoods under Component 2, and a substantial share of the AF funds will focus on this priority. The impact of the upsurge has been compounded by several events, including (i) the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly restrictions on movement and reduced economic activity that would normally have impacted farmers and pastoralists; (ii) the floods that struck several areas at the beginning and height of the upsurge; (iii) the conflict in Ethiopia, which limited surveillance and control operations in locust breeding areas and further increased food insecurity by limiting production, even in areas not impacted by locust; and (iv) drought, which helped to end the upsurge, but also prevents crops and pastures from regeneration after the last invasion. The proportion of funds going to increasing national preparedness will also increase aligning to the need to strengthen the early warning and early response capacity. The parent project financed an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the system, which has been endorsed by MoA. The AF will help finance the strengthening of the system, including regional centers for surveillance and control, in line with the good practice in other front line desert locust countries. 80. The GoE intends to purchase agrichemicals to control locusts and other pests—currently planned for 100,000 liters of Malathion 92.5 percent or 95 percent ULV—using government funds, not funds under the grant or credit linked to this project. This agrichemical in this formulation (including the equipment) is approved for use against DL. As an associated asset to the project activities, the World Bank reserves the right to reject a proposed agrichemical under the auspices of the project based on the World Health Organization (WHO)/FAO Hazard Classification of Pesticides (Class III and Class U are acceptable) and the suitability of the chemical for the intended pest/plant. The World Bank will also work with the client to ensure pesticide stocks do not exceed their usable life of the product. Finally, through the World Bank financed platform on managing transboundary pests housed in IGAD, the World Bank will encourage collaborative action research on more effective and environmentally safe control mechanisms. 81. The ELRP MPA program focused its economic analysis on the potential damage and losses from the DL upsurge. The analysis for this AF continues with that focus given the need to rebuild from the damage of the locusts compounded by COVID-19, conflict, and additional climate shocks, and the fact that the goal under Component 2 is to safeguard food security of producing households and the local vicinity rather than maximizing production for profit. As such it takes the data on average yield per hectare or animal collected from FAO STAT and national sources, and average value per unit of production to determine the benefits of proposed interventions. 82. In the original analysis for ELRP MPA Phase 1, which used FAO compiled data for 2016-2018, the baseline regional output was estimated at US$50.8 billion (US$25.7 billion for staple crops; US$24.3 for meat and milk; and US$0.9 billion for livestock exports) and the value of relevant livestock assets at US$118.1 billion. Ethiopia’s baseline was 24 percent of the calculated regional output, or US$12.3 billion Page 24 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) (US$8.5 billion for staple crops, US$3.7 billion for milk and meat, and US$3.0 million for livestock exports). The value of relevant livestock assets for Ethiopia was estimated at US$35.5 billion. 83. The AF proposes to restore 139,592 hectares of crop land and 149,343 hectares of pastureland to productivity. The crops promoted will vary according to the agro-ecological conditions in the project areas, but they will largely focus on dominant crops for smallholders—e.g., maize, wheat, sorghum, teff, in addition to vegetables produced primarily for household food security. When available, the project will distribute improved varieties for better adaptation to temperature extremes and drought to maximize yield potential. Building on the damage and loss assessment modeling at the beginning of the upsurge, the new investment should generate about US$68.5 million in crop production value, and another US$25 million in milk and meat products per year. The pasture restoration should support the pasture carrying capacity for about 110 million animals. 84. Multiplier effects can be expected from these investments in producer households (cropping and livestock) because there is a large body of literature showing that under economic conditions such as those prevailing in rural areas of much of Africa, a dollar of income generated from farming leads to at least an additional dollar of income from non-farm activities through stimulation of local demand in rural areas with substantial underemployment. 85. Greenhouse Gas Accounting. The World Bank uses the Ex-Ante Carbon-Balance Tool (EX-ACT) to estimate the impact of agricultural investment lending on GHG emissions and carbon sequestration. EX-ACT is a land-based appraisal system for assessing a project’s net carbon balance – the net balance of tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2eq) of GHGs that were emitted, or carbon sequestered because of project interventions – compared to a “without project” scenario. 86. The AF will promote CSA interventions across 139,592 ha for annual crop production and will transform 149,343 ha of moderately degraded grasslands to improved grasslands with inputs. The net carbon balance over a period of 10 years is estimated to be -4,944,945 tCO2e (approximately -494,494.5 tCO2e per year). At a conservative carbon price (US$40/t), the value of the reduced GHG emissions under the AF is about US$197.8 million. B. Financial Management 87. An FM assessment was conducted for the parent project and this AF, in line with the guidelines as stated in the Financial Management Practices Manual issued by the Financial Management Sector Board on March 1, 2010. The project will continue using the FM arrangements put in place for the parent project as there are no major changes to the implementation arrangements and project components, sub- components, and activities to be financed by the AF except for the use of third-party implementation agencies in conflict-affected areas, and construction works handled by the federal level. 88. The FM risks identified under the parent project will be addressed. The FM manual has been prepared and disseminated to the implementing entities, finance staff are in place, interim financial reports are being submitted in a timely manner, separate bank accounts are opened at all implementing entities, the project’s first audit report is submitted in a timely manner and the auditors provided unqualified opinion (clean report). FM challenges include: (i) obtaining regional reports on commodity distribution (seed, feed, fertilizer) and consolidation at MoA; (ii) delayed budget preparation, proclamation and low utilization; (iii) internal control weaknesses noted in the external audit report which includes questionable expenditures of ETB 4,844,074.6 (around US$93,000 with current exchange rate) for which MoF is providing justifications; Page 25 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) (iv) potential lack of documentation for commodity distributions in conflict affected areas; and (v) involvement of third-party implementation agencies in conflict-affected areas which creates complexities in fund flow, reporting and auditing arrangements. 89. The mitigation measures include: (i) signing memorandum of understanding with regions to ensure the roles and responsibilities in terms of resource utilization; (ii) establishing regular consolidated commodity reporting mechanisms by strengthening the engagement of MoA and supporting regions; (iii) improving budget preparation and proclamation processes, and addressing implementation bottlenecks in a timely manner; (iv) addressing internal control weaknesses by developing action plan and following up with regions; and (v) clearly defining FM arrangement requirements in contractual agreements with third- party implementation agencies and direct payments to be made by the Bank to these entities. Additional detailed challenges and action plans are included in the World Bank’s recent (December 2021) FM supervision report. The current residual FM risk rating is Substantial and ISR rating of the project is Moderately Satisfactory. 90. The project follows the government’s Channel One fund flow mechanism; MoF is responsible for the overall FM activities while MoA is the lead implementing entity for the project. The government’s budget procedures will be followed for the project and the budget will be proclaimed under the MoA. There will be one consolidated budget for the parent and AF activities. The parent project’s FM manual will be used in addition to the government’s accounting manual. Integrated FM Information System (IFMIS) and Integrated Budget and Expenditure System software (IBEX) will be used for accounting purposes at the federal and regional levels respectively. Existing finance staff at all implementing entities will continue to handle the AF transactions. The government’s internal control systems and internal audit function will be used. Details on the internal control system are included in the FM manual and areas for improvement are being followed up under the parent project. MoF/Channel One Programs Coordination Directorate will continue to prepare one quarterly consolidated IFR for the parent and AF activities and submit to World Bank within 60 days of the end of the reporting quarter. MoF will use the existing US$ designated account for the AF as well. The separate local currency accounts will continue to be used at all implementing entities. All disbursement methods will be allowed, and the arrangements will be like the original project. External audit will be conducted by the Office of the Federal Auditor General (OFAG) or by an auditor nominated by OFAG which is acceptable to the World Bank. One audited financial statement is expected for the parent project and the AF. The audit report should be submitted within 6 months of the end of the fiscal year. The project will use all modalities of supervision available for the project including GEMS, updated audit TOR with focus on risky areas, as well as third party monitoring if that is to be used under the project. 91. UNOPS will be contracted by the Government, through the PIU in the Food Security Coordination Directorate within Ministry of Agriculture, for Third-Party Implementation. For the UNOPS agreement, the standard output agreement will be used. The agreement includes arrangements for annual work plan and budget approvals, financial reporting requirements, accounting requirements, payment processes, fraud and corruption prevention, and audit arrangements. Based on discussions to be conducted between the government, UNOPS and the Bank and considering the design of the operation, the country context as it relates to the UN agencies arrangements in the field, and any relevant additional information, the standard agreement might be updated to include additional measures such as reconsidering the frequency of Page 26 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) reporting and internal audit by UNOPS. The contract will be reviewed by the Bank and will provide no objection before signing. In addition, regular FM assessment of the government’s capacity to supervise the activities to be carried out by the UN agency, on their behalf, will be conducted, during implementation, with the objective of determining the risk and assurance provided by the proposed FM arrangements. The results of such assessments will feed into actions plans for mitigating risks during regular implementation support missions. Implementation Progress in agreed fiduciary management areas will also be monitored through third party monitoring mechanism (TPMM), including for the project fiduciary management arrangement. The Third-Party Monitoring Agent (TPMA) will be recruited by the Bank, subject to availability of Trust Fund resources. With these arrangements included in the agreements and the use of TPMM, the fiduciary arrangements will provide reasonable assurance on the use of resources by UNOPS. 92. In response to allegations of misconduct surrounding UNOPS nascent S3i sustainable infrastructure initiative, OPCS UN Program held corporate-level consultations with senior FM corporate officials. It was confirmed that the S3i governance system functioned completely separately from that that governs UNOPS regular operational service line, under which all World Bank projects. The UNOPS governance and internal system of controls for their regular operational service programming are based on the core principle that makes up UNOPS’s Governance Risk and Compliance framework. UNOPS Delegation of Authority and Accountability Framework over financial matters covers HQ, regional offices, country offices, and individual projects. UNOPS’s internal control framework consists of the five COSO components of (i) Control Environment, (ii) Risk Assessment, (iii) Control Activities, (iv) Information and Communications, and (v) Monitoring, which are embedded in UNOPS’s policies and procedures. A second line of control function is provided at regional and corporate levels. Lastly, third-line internal control mechanisms are covered by internal and external audits, as well as investigations. UNOPS’s audits are publicly available and the Bank UN Program team reviews audit reports on a regular basis and makes reviews available to World Bank management for decision support services related to implementation of projects working with UNOPS. 93. It is the conclusion of the assessment that the existing FM arrangements are adequate to provide reasonable assurance to the use of project resources as per the Bank Policy – IPF and Bank Directive – IPF. C. Procurement 94. Procurement under the AF will be carried out in accordance with the World Bank’s Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers: ‘Procurement in Investment Project Financing, Goods, Works, Non- Consulting, and Consulting Services’, dated July 1, 2016, revised November 2017, August 2018 and November 2020 and the provisions stipulated in the Financing Agreement and shall be subject to the World Bank’s Anticorruption Guidelines, dated October 15, 2006, revised in January 2011, and as of July 1, 2016. The project will use the Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement (STEP) to plan, process, record, and track procurement transactions. 95. Advance Contracting and Retroactive Financing. The procurement for all contracts to be considered for retroactive financing under project shall be consistent with section V (Paragraphs 5.1 and 5.2) of the Procurement Regulations for Borrowers under IPF dated July 1, 2016 (revised November 2017 and August 2018). The advance contracting will enable the Borrower to contract UNOPS to execute specialized activities of the project. For all the contracts signed, including operations cost, reimbursement by the World Bank for cost incurred under the Project prior to the signing of the Financing Agreement, as part of retroactive financing, shall not exceed the agreed ceiling in the Financing Agreement. Page 27 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) 96. Furthermore, the World Bank will ascertain the eligibility of the expenditures and ensure due diligence through a rigorous, post-effectiveness retroactive financing review if any such expenditures are claimed by the Borrower, that will include a technical, fiduciary and safeguards eligibility post-review, as required and compatible under the World Bank policies and procedures and agreed with the Borrower. While expenditure eligible for retroactive financing need not be fully defined presently, typical expenditures that will likely be eligible include farmer packages, fodder seed, and emergency fodder under Component 2, to targeted households to restart farming and restore their livelihoods and grazing areas for livestock. 97. The PIU will use standard procurement documents issued by the World Bank, as well as standard bid evaluation forms for procurement of goods, and open international competitive bid for non-consulting contracts. The PIU will also use World Bank’s standard request for proposals, a sample format for specific procurement notices, request for expression of interest, and the sample form of the evaluation report for the selection of consultants. 98. The FSCD will carry out procurement under the AF. FSCD/MPA will carry out all procurement activities of the project, including procurement of goods consulting and non-consulting services. Activities include procurement of aerial locust control chemical spray services, procurement of locust control equipment, and selection of consultants, project staff, and project financial audit. RBoAs affected by locust infestation (Afar, Amhara, Dire Dawa, Harari, Oromia, Somali, SNNP, and Tigray) shall carry out procurement activities related to the livelihood components such as seeds, fertilizers, and other inputs. As the project is financing emergency operations, fast track emergency procurement for the required goods and non- consulting services shall be used when necessary to ensure expedient delivery of the goods and services to be procured under the AF. The project procurement strategy for development and procurement plan will reflect the direct contracting of TPIs. 99. The procurement risk assessment has indicated that FSCD has maintained one experienced procurement staff with a reasonable level of efficiency and effectiveness. The procurement activities at the FSCD are carried out by the agreed procedures of the World Bank. FSCD will carry out all procurement activities and government proclamations and directives will provide the basis for the procurement policy framework. In general, there is a reasonable capacity to carry out the procurement activities in the implementing agencies for the AF. However, there are gaps in procurement processing and record keeping. Delays in procurement processing and procurement decision making are the areas that need improvement. Overall, the procurement risk rating for the proposed AF is Substantial. D. Legal Operational Policies 100. Neither legal operational policy is triggered for this additional finance. This is consistent with the parent project. . Triggered? Projects on International Waterways OP 7.50 No Projects in Disputed Areas OP 7.60 No . E. Environmental and Social 101. The overall Environmental and Social Risk Classification for the AF will remain High. Currently, the ELRP MPA has a moderately unsatisfactory (MU) rating for ESF (see Basic Information section); however, this rating reflects performance issues in the Djibouti and Kenya projects, which are being Page 28 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) managed. The performance rating for EF under the Ethiopia project is moderately satisfactory. As has been the case for the parent project, AF will have a range of socio-economic benefits in minimizing the impacts of the DL plague which has threatened the livelihoods and food security of a significant proportion of the Ethiopian population. However, the AF will also have a range of potential E&S risks which may result from poor handling, transportation, and application of pesticides as well as poor management of hazardous wastes. The spraying of insecticides can also have adverse impacts on people and biodiversity. 102. To manage the potential risks, the MoA will continue to make sure that there will be: (i) an adequate design of pesticide storage, handling, and management facilities; (ii) appropriate management of stocks in an effective, efficient, and transparent manner; (iii) improvement of the capacity of health centers in the treatment of pesticide poisoning incidents; (iv) appropriate disposal of unwanted or surplus insecticides; and (v) emergency preparedness and response plan for the pesticide application activities in line with the World Bank General EHS guidelines WHO and FAO Guidelines for Safety and Environmental Precautions, Guidelines on Developing a Reporting System for Health and Environmental Incidents Resulting from Exposure to Pesticides, 2009; Prevention of Accumulation and Disposal of Obsolete Stocks; 2009, 2011; and, the International Code of Conduct on Pesticide Management. 103. The ESMF and Integrated Pest Management Plan (IPMP) prepared for the parent project shall be used as a basis for the identification and management of potential risks that could result from the AF activities. The MoA has updated the environmental and social commitment plan and the stakeholder engagement plan, both of which have been reviewed and approved by the World Bank and disclosed on the MOA website on March 21, 2022. 9 There is a disbursement condition on Components 1, 2, and 3 for all pending ESF instrument updates to be completed satisfactory to the World Bank. The MoA is updating the environmental and social management framework and preparing a security management plan (SMP) and resettlement framework (RF). The draft SMP and RF are being review by the Bank. The MoA shall maintain the E&S risk management implementation arrangement that has been established for the parent Program so that the risks could be proactively addressed. Civil works will be added to the AF as the project shifts from swarm management to improving national preparedness. This will include the construction of subnational DL offices, which will align Ethiopia with other frontline DL countries. All relevant ESSs have already been triggered as part of the parent project and the continuing activities of the AF. ESF instruments requiring updates to reflect the risks and how they will be addressed—e.g., labor management procedures, GBV/SEA action plan, EHS guidelines will be completed prior to disbursement. V. WORLD BANK GRIEVANCE REDRESS 104. Communities and individuals who believe that they are adversely affected by a World Bank supported project may submit complaints to existing project-level grievance redress mechanisms or the World Bank’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS). The GRS ensures that complaints received are promptly reviewed to address the project-related concerns. Project affected communities and individuals may submit their complaints to the World Bank’s independent Inspection Panel which determines whether harm occurred, or could occur, because of World Bank’s non-compliance with its policies and procedures. Complaints may be submitted at any time after concerns have been brought directly to the World Bank’s attention, and Bank Management has been allowed to respond. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank’s corporate GRS, please visit http://www.worldbank.org/en/projects- operations/products-and-services/grievance-redress-service. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank Inspection Panel, please visit www.inspectionpanel.org 9 Updated ESF instruments can be accessed on the MoA website: http://www.moa.gov.et/web/guest/eelrp. Page 29 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) VI SUMMARY TABLE OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Results Framework ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Implementing Agency ✔ Project's Development Objectives ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ Financial Management ✔ Procurement ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ VII DETAILED CHANGE(S) MPA PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE Current MPA Program Development Objective To respond to the threat posed by the locust outbreak and to strengthen systems for preparedness. Proposed New MPA Program Development Objective Page 30 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) EXPECTED MPA PROGRAM RESULTS Current Expected MPA Results and their Indicators for the MPA Program The following indicators are being adjusted • The target for the number of countries covered by the Program is being reduced by 1. • The target for the number of supported countries with locust control plans developed is being reduced by 1 • The target for the number of countries with strengthened early detection capacity is being reduced by 1 • The target for land area (ha) sprayed for locust control is being reduced by 30,000 and the definition of that indicator is being clarified • The target for the number of affected households supported by social safety nets is being reduced by 240,000. • The target for the number of person work-days generated by emergency cash-for-work schemes is being deleted for Phase 1 because Uganda was the only participating country implementing such schemes. The indicator will remain for Phases 2 and 3. Proposed Expected MPA Results and their Indicators for the MPA Program No indicators will be changed at this time; however, the end of program targets are being increased based on the additional activities in Kenya additional financing. COMPONENTS Current Component Name Current Cost Action Proposed Component Proposed Cost (US$, (US$, millions) Name millions) Surveillance and Control 77.25 Revised Surveillance and Control 91.15 Measures Measures Livelihoods Protection and 87.20 Revised Livelihoods Protection 118.60 Rehabilitation and Rehabilitation Coordination and Early 17.94 Revised Coordination and Early 29.64 Warning Preparedness Warning Preparedness Project Management 12.61 Revised Project Management 15.61 TOTAL 195.00 255.00 Expected Disbursements (in US$) DISBURSTBL Fiscal Year Annual Cumulative 2020 0.00 0.00 2021 0.00 0.00 Page 31 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) 2022 5,000,000.00 5,000,000.00 2023 25,000,000.00 30,000,000.00 2024 15,000,000.00 45,000,000.00 2025 10,000,000.00 55,000,000.00 2026 5,000,000.00 60,000,000.00 2027 0.00 60,000,000.00 2028 0.00 60,000,000.00 2029 0.00 60,000,000.00 SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT) Risk Category Latest ISR Rating Current Rating Political and Governance  High  High Macroeconomic  High  High Sector Strategies and Policies  Moderate  Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program  Moderate  Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and  Moderate  Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary  High  High Environment and Social  High  High Stakeholders  High  High Other  Substantial  Substantial Overall  High  High LEGAL COVENANTS2 LEGAL COVENANTS – Emergency Locust Response Program Phase 1 Ethiopia Additional Finance (P178434) Sections and Description OPS LEGAL CONVENANT CHILD NODATA No information available Conditions Type Financing source Description Effectiveness IBRD/IDA Recipient has updated and adopted the Project Implementation Manual in accordance with the Page 32 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) provisions of Section I.B of Schedule 2 to this Agreement. Type Financing source Description Effectiveness IBRD/IDA The Recipient has entered into a Third Party Implementation Contract with the United National Office of Project Services (UNOPS) to implement the activities of the Project to be carried out in high risk of ongoing conflict areas, with terms of reference, mandates, staffing, and resources satisfactory to the Association. Type Financing source Description Disbursement IBRD/IDA No withdrawal shall be made under Category (1), (2) and (3) unless and until the Recipient has implemented the applicable material measures and actions, including preparing, carrying out consultation on, adopting and publicly disclosing relevant environmental andsocial assessment/management plans and instruments, set forth in the Environmental and Social Commitment Plan relating to disbursement of Financing for Part 1,2 and 3 of the Project. Page 33 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) VIII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING Results Framework COUNTRY: Eastern and Southern Africa RESULT NO PDO Emergency Locust Response Program Phase 1 Ethiopia Additional Finance Project Development Objective(s) To respond to the threat posed by the locust outbreak and to strengthen systems for preparedness. Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ PD O Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target To respond to the threat posed by the locust outbreak and to strengthen systems for preparedness Countries (number) covered by the Program (Number) 0.00 7.00 Land area (ha) sprayed for locust control (Hectare(Ha)) 271,812.00 682,188.00 Supported countries (number) with locust control plans 0.00 7.00 developed (Number) Land area (ha) of affected pasture/rangeland restored to 0.00 260,615.00 productivity (Hectare(Ha)) Land area (ha) of affected agricultural land restored to 0.00 44,500.00 productivity (Hectare(Ha)) Countries (number) with strengthened early detection capacity (Number) 0.00 7.00 Page 34 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ PD O Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Affected households (number) supported by social safety nets, Of which females (percent) are the direct recipient of benefits 0.00 2,000.00 (Number) Regional coordination among affected countries improved? No Yes (Yes/No) PDO Table SPACE Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Monitoring and Controlling Swarms Locust monitoring system operational (Yes/No) (Yes/No) No Yes Control teams (Number) trained in safe use of pesticides 0.00 150.00 (Number) Pesticide inventory stored in accordance with appropriate No Yes international safety standards (Yes/No) (Yes/No) Livelihoods Protection and Restoration Share (percent) of beneficiary households self-reporting improved food consumption (Percentage) 0.00 70.00 Affected farmers (number) receiving input packets (Number) 0.00 197,000.00 Affected livestock holding households (number) receiving 0.00 254,208.00 emergency fodder (Number) Affected livestock holding households (number) receiving 0.00 21,000.00 replacement livestock (Number) Page 35 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Person work-days (number) generated by emergency cash-for- 0.00 1,200,000.00 work schemes of which (percent) benefiting women (Number) Proportion of affected farmers receiving input packets that are 0.00 50.00 women (Percentage) Coordination and Early Warning Preparedness Awareness raising communications campaigns conducted (Yes/No) (Yes/No) No Yes Share of communities (percent) with locust response 0.00 70.00 engagement plans developed (Percentage) National locust outbreak emergency risk communication plan No Yes tested (Yes/No) (Yes/No) Project management Program funds (amount, US$) disbursed within six months after program effectiveness (Percentage) 0.00 40.00 Grievances registered and resolved by the program (percentage) 0.00 90.00 (Percentage) IO Table SPACE Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: PDO Indicators Mapped Methodology for Data Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Collection Collection This is determined by the World Bank number of projects added Group Aggregation of Countries (number) covered by the Quarterly Project team under the ERLP--count of Operations operational data Program countries in PCODES Portal cleared by the Board. Page 36 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) Country-level Aggregation of Project coordinating Monthly Land area (ha) sprayed for locust control project data operational data unit World Bank Aggregation of Supported countries (number) with locust Monthly Operations Project team operational data control plans developed Portal Land area (ha) of affected Country-level Aggregation of Project coordinating Biannually pasture/rangeland restored to project data operational data unit productivity Country-level Aggregation of Project coordinating Land area (ha) of affected agricultural Biannually project data operational data unit land restored to productivity Country-level Aggregation of Project coordinating Countries (number) with strengthened Biannually project data operational data unit early detection capacity Following restructuring, Affected households (number) supported the end target reflects the Country-level Aggregation of Project coordinating by social safety nets, Of which females Djibouti safety net target. Monthly project data operational data unit (percent) are the direct recipient of Ethiopia and Kenya have benefits separate safety net programs. Country project MIS, Midterm interviews Supervision visits, client Country PIUs, ELRP Regional coordination among affected and end of with client country governments MPA team countries improved? project country governments ME PDO Table SPACE Page 37 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: Intermediate Results Indicators Mapped Methodology for Data Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Collection Collection Country-level Country-level project Country project Locust monitoring system operational Biannually project data data management unit (Yes/No) Country-level Country-level project Country project Control teams (Number) trained in safe Biannually project data data management unit use of pesticides Pesticide inventory stored in accordance Country-level Country-level project Country project Biannually with appropriate international safety project data data management unit standards (Yes/No) Share (percent) of beneficiary households Country-level Country-level project Country project Biannually self-reporting improved food project data data management unit consumption Country-level Country-level project Country project Affected farmers (number) receiving input Biannually project data data management unit packets Country-level Country-level project Country project Affected livestock holding households Biannually project data data management unit (number) receiving emergency fodder Country-level Country-level project Country project Affected livestock holding households Biannually project data data management unit (number) receiving replacement livestock Person work-days (number) generated by Country-level Country-level project Country project Biannually emergency cash-for-work schemes of project data data management unit which (percent) benefiting women Collected Proportion of affected farmers receiving as part of input packets that are women regular project Page 38 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) monitoring and reported through regular progress reports to the Bank. Country-level Country-level project Country project Awareness raising communications Biannually project data data management unit campaigns conducted (Yes/No) Share of communities (percent) with Country-level Country-level project Country project Biannually locust response engagement plans project data data management unit developed Country-level Country-level project Country project National locust outbreak emergency risk Biannually project data data management unit communication plan tested (Yes/No) Measures the speed at which clients are able to World Bank Once, Program funds (amount, US$) disbursed access the funds in the Group Aggregation of semi- Project team within six months after program project by measuring how Operations operational data annually effectiveness much money is disbursed Portal in the 6 months following effectiveness. Quarterly Project implementing Monitoring GRM Grievances registered and resolved by the Quarterly progress units in each MPA tracking system program (percentage) reports country ME IO Table SPACE Page 39 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) Page 40 of 41 The World Bank Additional Financing for the Emergency Locust Response Project (P178434) Page 41 of 41