68210 JANUARY 2012 ABOUT THE AUTHORS Building a Line of Defense against Climate Change: BJORN CONRAD works with the Global From reactive coping to adaptive capacity in China’s Environment Facility (GEF) Evaluation Office, evaluating irrigated agricultural development climate change adaptation. In the context of the recent evalu- ation of the Special Climate Change Fund, he visited and Climate change threatens to undermine decades of development analyzed the Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in achievements in China’s Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin. Farmers in the 3H Irrigated Agriculture project in Basin have long been plagued by water scarcity and frequent droughts and China. floods. Development efforts have succeeded in relieving some of these QUN LI pressures, but the effects of climate change put these achievements in is a Senior Operations Officer and currently working in the jeopardy. The Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in Irrigated Water Sector for the Middle East and North Africa Region. Agriculture project, funded under the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) She was previously in the and integrated into the World Bank’s Irrigated Agriculture Intensification III Social, Environmental and Rural Development Sector of Project, has been building a line of defense against the looming consequences East Asia and Pacific Region as the Task Team Leader for the of climate change on agricultural communities in China. The project was Irrigated Agriculture recognized as good adaptation practice in the 2011 World Resources Report1 Intensification III Project (IAIL3) and the SCCF Mainstreaming as well as the SCCF evaluation of the independent GEF (Global Environment Climate Change Adaptation in Irrigated Agriculture Facility) Evaluation Office.2 This SmartLesson describes how the project Development Project. created long-term adaptive capacity for affected communities to support APPROVING MANAGERS sustainable irrigated agriculture in rural China. Aaron Zazueta, Chief Evaluation Officer, GEF Evaluation Office; Magda Lovei, Sector Manager; Social, Environment and Rural Development; Sustainable Background Development Department; East Asia and Pacific Region. Aspiration and reality have always been difficult to reconcile in China’s 3H basin. On the one hand, the region is China’s breadbasket, nurturing around a third of the country’s population. On the other hand, it is vulnerable to severe droughts and floods and suffers from growing water demand, pollution, and inefficient water use, resulting in dramatic water scarcity. Per-capita water availability is one third of the national average, and only half of the UN standard for maintaining socioeconomic development. Even without climate change, farmers in the region face great challenges. 1 For additional information, see Wang & Li, Q. 2010. “Ad- Efforts have been made to mitigate economic aptation to Climate Change in Action in China’s Agricul- tural Development�. Case study for the World Resources pressures on rural communities in the 3H Report 2010-2011. Washington, DC. Available online at basin, to improve living standards while http://www.worldresourcesreport.org/case-studies/chinas- safeguarding national food security. Since agricultural-development-adaptation-action. 2 For more information on GEF Evaluation Office’s SCCF 1988, agricultural development initiatives evaluation, please visit www.thegef.org/gef/eo_them_ have been streamlined under China’s SCCF. SMARTLESSONS — JANUARY 2012 1 Comprehensive Agricultural Development (CAD) program Ultimately, the key to resilience is increased local ability to serving as an umbrella for domestic and multilateral react to changing circumstances. The following five lessons investments. One large-scale initiative under the CAD is the focus on how the project sought to change local perceptions Irrigated Agriculture Intensification Loan Project (IAIL) and behaviors toward long-term adaptive capacity. series, implemented by the State Office for Comprehensive Agricultural Development (SOCAD) and partly financed Lessons Learned through a World Bank loan. The completed IAIL1 and IAIL2 projects improved water availability for 2.6 million hectares Lesson 1: Facing the uncertainty of climate change of low- and medium-yield farmland, benefiting 7.3 million effects, investing in a comprehensive climate change farm households. The recently completed IAIL3 project impact analysis to create a scientifically sound project extended this effort by another 500,000 hectares and 1.3 approach will pay off. million farm households. Uncertainty mars climate change adaptation activities: But IAIL’s contribution is being undermined by yet another predictions on the nature, intensity, and frequency of challenge to the 3H basin: climate change. Climatic climate change effects in any specific location remain modeling identifies the 3H basin as one of the world’s most imprecise and difficult to obtain. However, in the context of vulnerable regions to climate change. Adding climate the SCCF project, investing in the generation of location- change impacts, from extreme weather events to shifting specific information on climate effects yielded enormous precipitation pattern, to an already unfavorable situation benefits for the choice of project locations, the design of threatens to push the burden beyond what local targeted activities, and the engagement of affected communities can absorb. communities. The Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in Irrigated The SCCF project made great efforts to reduce uncertainty Agriculture project, supported by the GEF-managed SCCF, through a comprehensive analysis carried out by national has created a first line of defense in five provinces across and international scientists and supported by a World Bank the 3H basin by exploring and demonstrating how the Analytical and Advisory Activity. Scientists assessed climate achievements of IAIL3 and other CAD initiatives can be change impacts and the effectiveness of adaptation at the safeguarded against climate change impacts. The project, national, provincial, county, and village levels. The scientific closely integrated with IAIL3, aimed to enhance adaptation climate change impact analysis combined downscaled in agriculture and water management through awareness- regional climate models with water simulation models to raising, capacity development, and demonstration activities. discern water supply and demand changes under climate It introduced climate change adaptation activities into a change conditions. Results were linked with agricultural wide range of ongoing IAIL3 activities and promoted the projection models and Global Trade Analysis (GTAP) to mainstreaming of adaptation into the CAD program. predict concrete climate change impacts on water resources, irrigated agricultural production, and agricultural trade. Given the unpredictability of future climate threats, specific projects and adaptation activities will not be sufficient to The assessment yielded high-quality predictions on how overcome the climate change challenges in the long run. changes in precipitation and water flows are likely to 2 SMARTLESSONS — JANUARY 2012 impact different crops in specific locations. This allowed for locations with distinctive climate conditions allowed for the the informed selection of project locations, to include testing of a wide spectrum of activities. locations that face different kinds of climate change effects (which would therefore allow for the demonstration of Through the integration of the two projects, SCCF activities different adaptation activities), and would be representative were directly applicable to the wider IAIL3 project area, of a larger region, illustrating the possibility for future providing a straight path for replication and scaling up. In scaling up (Lesson 2). In addition, specific information on addition, timing proved to be important: the SCCF project climate effects was crucial for the design of adaptation was implemented around the IAIL3 midterm review, activities targeting local vulnerabilities. Perhaps most demonstrating first success in a phase of project important, specific information played an indispensable readjustment. This facilitated the immediate application of role in convincing local farmers of the urgency and necessity demonstrated activities to other parts of IAIL3. In this way, to implement adaptation activities (Lesson 3). the small $5 million SCCF grant led to a readjustment of the use of the $460 million of IAIL3 resources toward a Lesson 2: To translate vulnerability assessments into on- systematic consideration of climate change effects. the-ground activities, use an integrated project design that incorporates adaptation activities into an existing Lesson 3: A reciprocal working relationship between water and agricultural investment project. farmers and scientific advisers is the key to overcome farmers’ reluctance to react to climate change by Climate change adaptation is a new field for development adjusting agricultural practices. interventions with no existing set of tried solutions. In translating threat assessments into concrete activities on Xuzhou Wheat No. 31, a crop variety, has been specifically the ground, the project benefited greatly from integration developed to be more resistant to drought. But when we first with the IAIL3 investment. IAIL3 was a perfect candidate for proposed to farmers that they use it, the notion was greeted incorporating climate adaptation; while located in a region with intense skepticism. For the farmers it was, first and highly vulnerable to climate effects and already focused on foremost, a seed they did not know and that posed a risk. irrigation and water scarcity, the original project design had not explicitly considered future effects of climate change. Farmers in the 3H basin live under high economic pressure. They have limited capacity to absorb setbacks, creating a The SCCF project translated climate modeling information prudent reluctance to change tried agricultural practices. In into a gap analysis of existing IAIL3 investment components, consequence, their coping strategies react primarily to loss revealing their vulnerabilities to climate change and of harvest instead of addressing the underlying reasons. concrete deficiencies to be corrected. These weak spots of Facing climate change, however, reactive coping is not a IAIL3 provided the SCCF project with a testing ground for sustainable option; intensifying water stresses will the design and implementation of climate change aggravate economic pressure and further decrease local adaptation activities, ranging from improved water-saving ability to bear the uncertainty of alternative options. capacity to agronomic adaptive techniques and resilient Eventually, this cycle will lead to the breakdown of reactive cropping systems. In addition, the selection of IAIL3 coping capacity, destroying livelihoods. SMARTLESSONS — JANUARY 2012 3 fully transparent for the local farmers. Farmers’ ability to assess these risks and make decisions accordingly was greatly increased, allowing them to take full ownership of the implemented activities. Lesson 4: Create organizational structures and harness existing structures to strengthen continuous collaboration between stakeholders. Box 1: Main achievements of project activities • Project areas in Huaiyuan County (Anhui) weathered the devastating drought of 2009 practically unscathed due to the use of a resistant alternative crop variety. • In Ningxia, 223 small-scale rainfall catchments were constructed with total water storage of over 15,000 m3, The question was how farmers could be given the resolving drinking water shortages and mitigating confidence that adaptation can be successful despite the drought. lack of certainty on climate change effects and limited experience on adaptation measures. For the SCCF project, • The Xinyi project area introduced water-stopping walls the crucial factor of success turned out to be a reciprocal and sluice gates as an adaptive water-saving measure working relationship between farmers and scientific that increased water productivity from 1.14 kg to 1.5 kg/ advisers. Facilitated by the project team, farmers-scientist per m3. cooperation started with a series of workshops and trainings to inform affected communities about the results • Increase of agricultural outputs and restructuring of of the vulnerability assessment and possible adaptation cropping mix greatly facilitated increase of farmer activities. The workshops, through surveys and consultations, incomes. The average Per capita net income of farmers gave communities an opportunity to discuss their in the project area increased to 5138 yuan from 3,406 preferences on proposed adaptation activities and their yuan at appraisal, accounting for 150.9% of that at suggestions on measures’ feasibility and technological appraisal. soundness. Building on this initial dialogue, the SCCF project went In order to realize the full benefits of the farmer-scientist beyond standard participatory practices. Throughout partnership, organizational structures to ensure continuous project implementation, scientific advisers organized in interaction between the two groups were needed. To Mobile Expert Teams collaborated with local farmers in on- organize farmers’ collaboration with the scientific advisers the-ground experimentation with different adaptation and coordinate the experimentation activities and later measures to jointly identify the most promising options. A implementation of full adaptation measures, the project total of 256 practical application studies were conducted to supported the creation and expansion of farmer associations test different approaches under real-life conditions. The (FAs) and water users associations (WUAs). The SCCF project scientific advisers contributed the results of their provided these associations with a clear function and vulnerability analysis; local farmers described how strategies responsibilities regarding the selection and implementation could or could not be implemented on a practical level. of proposed adaptation measures. More than 1,000 WUAs, 209 FAs, and 20 specialized farmer cooperatives were The application studies allowed for the direct comparison established under the overall IAIL3 project. between agricultural areas with and without application of adaptation measures under equal conditions. During the To ensure the continuous engagement of scientists, the testing phase, farmers and scientists applied measures — IAIL3 project established Mobile Expert Teams (METs), from adjusted sowing schedules to switching from wheat comprising national scientists from the Chinese Academy to groundnut or vegetables — in parts of the project of Sciences and Agriculture Science, as well as provincial community, and measured results against other fields in the and county experts from water and agriculture research same community that did not apply adaptation activities. institutes, to regularly provide expert assistance to the These joint experimentation exercises proved powerful in farmers on project activities. This guaranteed the constant overcoming farmers’ reluctance to change agricultural involvement of scientific advisers in the implementation practices. For example, the demonstrated success of Xuzhou process, ensured the congruence of scientific data and on- Wheat No. 31 in surviving a season of high water stress was the-ground activities and strengthened the crucial working the key to farmers’ acceptance of the new crop variety. partnership between farmers and scientists. Uncertainty about the long-term effectiveness of these The project management team played a crucial role in activities remained. However, the process of collaborative facilitating the collaborative approach. It benefited from testing made the risks, rationale, and likelihood of success the existing organizational structure of China’s long- SMARTLESSONS — JANUARY 2012 4 standing CAD program. CAD units are and their related adaptation measures) established administrative bodies at the covering all key grain production regions in national, provincial, and county levels. Selected China has been completed to mainstream individuals within these CAD units that were CC adaptation measures. The formulation already engaged in the IAIL3 project were of a climate change adaptation policy and selected to constitute the Project Management action plan for the overall national Office (PMO) for the Mainstreaming Adaptation comprehensive agricultural investment Project. As part of the IAIL3 project, these program is under way. An online climate individuals already received extensive training change information and data platform has in project management, significantly been established in SOCAD at the national strengthening individual and institutional level (assisted by CAS scientists) as well as capacity for project implementation and the provincial level. supervision. Through the SCCF project, the PMO staff received additional training on the Conclusion conceptual and technical dimensions of climate change adaptation. The PMO thus became an Facing a challenge that will unfold over effective interlocutor facilitating the farmer- decades, the implementation of adaptation scientist partnership and provided the project’s activities today can only be the beginning. organizational backbone for introducing What will ultimately be more important climate change adaptation in the context of the than the installation of greenhouses or SCCF project as well as the larger IAIL3 project. rainwater catchments is the project’s contribution to changing local populations’ Lesson 5: Following the lessons above can fundamental approach to agricultural and facilitate the mainstreaming of climate water resources management practices in a change adaptation into the broader political context of climate change. context, ensuring sustainability, replication, and scaling up. Through the SCCF and IAIL3 projects, communities are better informed about The characteristics of the SCCF project made it climate threats — but, more important, into a vehicle for mainstreaming climate change their ability to keep and raise that level of adaptation into the large-scale CAD program: information and use it as a basis for future the vulnerability assessment illustrated climate coping choices is increased. They are change effects on the entire 3H basin; the equipped with a toolkit of immediate testing of adaptation activities in representative instruments to protect their livelihood, and locations demonstrated their feasibility and better prepared to expand this toolkit in practicability; and the IAIL3 organizational accordance with changes in climatic structure, already deeply embedded in the CAD circumstances and increased knowledge. administration on all government levels, This represents the beginning of an provided the direct connection to relevant adaptive capacity that rural communities government agencies. across the developing world will need in order to safeguard their livelihoods against Accordingly, the SCCF project was successful in the effects of global warming. The best introducing climate change considerations into response to climate change effects we can the CAD program, changing the underlying give today is to provide affected assumptions that guide future CAD land communities with the knowledge, support improvement investments, and integrating structures and, confidence to come up with DISCLAIMER climate change adaptation activities into an even better response tomorrow. SmartLessons is an awards ongoing CAD initiatives. The project helped program to share lessons learned in development-oriented advisory streamline climate change adaptation into services and investment SOCAD’s regular work and assisted the operations. The findings, development of regulations and policies needed interpretations, and conclusions to mainstream adaptation in the CAD program. expressed in this paper are those The SCCF and IAIL3 projects paved the way for of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of IFC introducing climate change adaptation into a or its partner organizations, the new, full-fledged agricultural modernization Executive Directors of The World project in additional six provinces that is now Bank or the governments they being prepared by the World Bank. They also represent. IFC does not assume any responsibility for the catalyzed investment projects on the provincial completeness or accuracy of the level — in Anhui alone, climate change information contained in this adaptation activities will be scaled up from 16 to document. Please see the terms 93 counties, extending the number of farmers and conditions at www.ifc.org/ who benefit from the activities from 1 to 31 smartlessons or contact the program at smartlessons@ifc.org. million. A scaling up study (analysis on CC impact SMARTLESSONS — JANUARY 2012 5