LUSAKA DECONGESTION PROJECT “Commerce, Trade and Industry Minister and Member of Parliament Margaret Mwanakatwe has described the level of road traffic congestion in Lusaka as unbearable. She travelled around the city on Thursday using public transport as a way of having a feel of the public transport system in Lusaka.”1 Growing population and economic growth have led to a sharp increase in the number of motor vehicles traveling in Lusaka. Increasing traffic volumes have negative consequences beyond “un- bearable” congestion. They have great economic costs in terms of lost productivity and increased fuel imports and health costs in terms of injury and fatality causing accidents and respiratory and other ailments due to declines in local air quality. In response, the government has launched a massive investment project aimed at “decongesting” the capital city. On April 11, 2018 Zambia’s President Edgar Lungu and his Indian counterpart, Shri Ram Nath Kovind, jointly launched the US$389 million Lusaka Decongestion Project. The Project was supposedly based on the results of a 2009 Study (Comprehensive Urban Development Plan) supported by the Japanese International Cooperation Program JICA. The stated objective of the Decongestion Project is to decongest the city. It is directed at expanding roadway capacity through widenings, new fly-over bridges and overpasses to be constructed over three years by Afcons International, an Indian construction company. Informal discussions with City officials revealed a serious concern that the investment may have the unintended consequence of worsening congestion by inducing more private motorized travel than would otherwise be there. Could the Government have done something different? Lusaka City Lusaka is one of the fastest growing cities in Southern Africa, increasing in population from 1.0 million in 2000 to 1.7 million in 2010, to almost 2.5 million in 2018. So far, population growth has exceeded the earlier projections in the 2009 JICA study of 2.7 million by 2030. The Greater Lusaka area covers 850 km2, which includes the city of Lusaka with an area of 423 km2, and its adjoining districts Chongwe, Chibombo and Kafue. Rapid growth has also expanded unplanned urban settlements. The Zambian economy has had an average annual growth of approximately 5.7 percent during the last decade. It successfully navigated the shocks associated with the 2008 global economic and financial crises and its GDP increases have continued apace. Donor debt relief improved Zambia's 1 Lusaka Times, September 15, 2017 1 external position and helped build foreign-exchange reserves. Direct foreign investment rose from US$165 million in 2003 to US$1.73 billion in 2010 with most of it dedicated to mining, manufac- turing, wholesale and retail trade. The improvement in the macro economy led to the classification of Zambia as a Lower Middle Income country by the World Bank in 2011. Despite robust economic growth, the overall percentage of households in poverty in the country is approximately 73 percent. Poverty is prominent particularly in rural areas, however more than half the urban population also lives below the poverty level. Although Lusaka province, as the coun- try’s largest city and its government and economic capital has the lowest percentage of its popula- tion living in poverty, it remains high at 52 percent. The Human Development Index for Zambia is 0.434, ranking the country 165 out of 177 countries providing data. Current Urban Transportation System Highway and Pedestrian Facilities: Lusaka is at the confluence of Zambia’s four main highways extending to the north, south, east and west. There is a core internal road network with a total length of 1,600 km. There are a significant number of roundabouts at major junctions and traffic signals have been installed at the highest order, most congested junctions. Most roundabouts have monuments in the center island that are important parts of the urban landscape. There are numerous traffic signs and markings on major roads to regulate and manage vehicle traffic. There are sidewalks along most major roads, but there are frequent gaps in the pedestrian network making walking unsafe and inconvenient. Major roads have uncovered drainage ditches on both sides. People can walk along them, but flooding is frequent because the ditches and connecting pipes contain so much trash which is rarely removed. Travel Demand: According to the Household Interview Survey (HIS) undertaken in 2007 by the JICA Study Team, the total number of home-base trips in Lusaka is about 1.8 million trips per day, and the average number of trips per person is about 1.57. Walking is, by far, the dominant mode accounting for 65% of the total person trips. Bus trips account for 21% while private car trips account for only 10%. This low car mode share is not surprising as car ownership is low and only about 15% of the households in the city own a personal vehicle. Traffic Management: Parking is one of the most serious traffic problems in Lusaka, especially in the core of the town where on-street parking is common and off-street parking lots are insufficient for the demand. Although parking places are provided by the Lusaka City Council (LCC) in the City, the capacity is very small. LCC collects a parking charge at a fee of ZMK1000/hour. The City does not have a parking policy. 2 Public Transport Service, Operating and Business Models: The public transport system in Lusaka, like in most major cities in Africa, has evolved over the years. A state-owned bus company, the United Bus Company of Zambia (UBZ), a legacy of British colonial rule, closed in 1995. At that time, a newspaper account said: “The state-run United Bus Company of Zambia (UBZ) seemed headed for collapse Wednesday as creditors seized its assets for failing to settle a 4.5 Million Kwacha (about 6.4 million dollars) debt. Government recently said that it would bail out the cash strapped company but has back- tracked in the wake of international donor disapproval. The Finance Minister has ruled out gov- ernment intervention to save the company.”2 After introduction of liberalization and privatization in the economy in the early 1990s, the private sector became the main provider of public transport. Subsequently, the government granted tax exemptions for minibus imports. That and the liberalization of public transport licensing brought about a rapid increase in the number of bus operators as well as buses of all kinds The current public transport system is largely unregulated. Authorities have bus registration and operating fee regulations, but the network structure and service levels are heavily dependent on the will of drivers who decide where and when they wish to go, with minimal regulation and en- forcement. Destinations are not clearly indicated on each bus so that each passenger must check the bus destination from its conductor. Public transport operates on an on-demand basis, meaning that buses leave origin terminals when there are a sufficient number of passengers on board, not according to a fixed schedule. This results in long wait times at terminal stations where there are few amenities and little security. They stop anywhere and when customers want to alight and/or where customers hail them. This results in a lack of fixed schedules or service regularity for passengers boarding along each route. Bus owners rent their vehicles to the actual bus operators (drivers) and collect a daily rental fee from them. Bus routes are not fixed because each individual minibus driver can change the route taken according to passengers’ demand at that time. Normally, drivers select high demand bus routes and times to maximize their revenue while there is inadequate service elsewhere. 2 December 14, 1994, http://www.ipsnews.net/1994/12/zambia-economy-another-state-run-company-falls/ 3 Buses are added to the system based on individual owners’ will to supply them. There are no enforced regulations dealing with vehicle numbers per route, driver safety, vehicle condition/ qual- ity or service levels in low demand locations and/or times. This means that there may be too many drivers chasing the same customers on some routes while other routes have too little service. Minibuses are heavily utilized because they provide reasonable service on busy routes during peak periods and there are no available, affordable alternatives. However, minibuses are one of the ma- jor causes of traffic congestion and accidents in Lusaka because of the dangerous manner in which drivers operate as they compete on the street for customers. The high fatality rate, about 22/10,000 people, is 2-4 times other countries in Africa, e.g., Uganda (6.8), Kenya (10.2), Zimbabwe (11.3)). There are currently approximately 2,600 buses officially registered by the RTSA. As noted above, this has led to over-capacity and in-route competition for a limited number of customers. This and congestion lowers the number of trips each driver can make in a day, on average only four runs per day. Travel times are high and bus operators drive unsafely in an effort to make more trips and thus pick up more customers on highly congested roadways. Accordingly, owners do not make enough money to adequately maintain their vehicles, drivers must work long hours for little net pay and there is general customer dissatisfaction with public transport. PT Vehicles: The most popular type of bus are minibuses with 12 seats, e.g., Toyota Hiace. Me- dium-size buses with 24 seats and some standing capacity are also operated. Large-size buses, on the other hand, are operated only for intercity transport. Most of the buses are more than 10 years old, use an undue amount of fuel and are highly polluting. Most lack air-conditioning and afford little space for comfort and internal circulation. Almost all vehicles are inaccessible to the phys- ically challenged since that are no requirements for accessibility when vehicles are registered, and many if not most are not registered at all. There is no official fare structure covering transfers. Regulated bus fares are uniform but often negotiated, with no official, subsidized discounts for the poor, other disadvantaged populations and students. PT Facilities: There are five bus terminals in the center of the city. i) Lusaka City Market, ii) Kulima Tower Bus Station, iii) Lumumba Bus Station, iv) Millennium Bus Station, and v) Intercity Bus Terminus. LCC operates three of these terminals: Lusaka City Market, Kulima Tower Bus Station, and Lu- saka Intercity Bus Terminus. On the other hand, Millennium Bus Station is operated by a private company, while Lumumba Bus Station is operated by a joint venture of LCC and a private com- pany. Only Lusaka Intercity Bus Station is situated east of the railway, while the other terminals are situated in the City’s core. 4 Planned Changes: The City is proposing banning minibuses by 2019. This is expected to have a huge negative impact on the poor. Phasing out minibuses will make the cost of transport more expensive, and it will push many operators out of business, as many of them cannot afford to buy a brand new bus. The transport sector is also one of the major sources of employment in the country, as it absorbs a huge population who have not attained any formal training or education. Institutional Arrangements for Urban Transport in General, Public Transport in Particular Jurisdiction over urban transportation issues is split among multiple tiers of government, and within each tier, among multiple agencies, creating a lack of clarity and overlapping mandates. Zambian Central Government: The Ministry of Communications and Transport (MOCT). The Department of Transport (DoT) in the MOCT is responsible for policy formulation, review, implementation and coordina- tion; resource mobilization; coordination of national transport corridor spatial development initia- tives; research and development; providing technical advice to transport sector parastatals boards of directors; and other related policy level functions for all modes of transport in air, railways, roads and maritime inland waterways. Road Transport and Safety Agency (RTSA): Under MOCT, RTSA was legislated in 2003 to carry out the transport control and regulatory functions. RTSA is thus responsible for vehicle test- ing to ensure road worthiness, collection of road licensing fees, issuing of cross-border permits, collection of road user fees, enforcement/fines, and programming, procurement, monitoring and evaluation of road transport regulations and safety programs. Road Development Agency (RDA): Under the Ministry of Works and Supply (MOWS), the DA is responsible for the programming, procurement, monitoring and overall supervision of all road works in the country, i.e. trunk, main, district, urban, rural and feeder roads. Zambia Police (Road Traffic Department: Responsible for the enforcement of Road Traffic Laws (Act No 11 of 2002 of the Laws of Zambia) (Zambia Police, 2014). The Police Traffic Of- ficers also conduct road safety awareness programs. They sensitize public and motorists on radio, television, print media, ceremonies, roads, brochures and public shows. They also go to schools to educate school children on road safety awareness. National Road Fund Agency (NRFA): Under the Ministry of Finance and National Planning, the NFRA is responsible for the collection, disbursement, management and accounting of the National 5 Road Fund, reporting through the Ministry of Finance and National Planning to the Committee of Ministers on Road Maintenance Initiative (RMI). Local Governments: Lusaka and other City Councils: Through the Ministry of Local Government and Housing, City Councils are responsible for over-all Public Transport management. Their mandate is to provide and operate bus stations, designate routes and develop the associated public transport infrastructure along routes Development Plan for LusakaA 20-year land use-municipal services plan was developed by JICA (2010-2030) in 2009 to address the needs of a forecast population of 2.7 million by 2030 3. The Plan proposed gradual, dense residential development led by industrial zones and development of competitive urban centers. Satellite cities were proposed to be established in the medium- and long -terms in areas adjacent to Chibombo, Chongwe and Kafue Districts. These were proposed to be constructed in conjunction with industrial zones within the corridors defined by proposed Outer Ring roads. Peri-urban agricultural land is to be retained and improved for both food production and to provide an environmental buffer green of ECHO garden city development. It was recommended that urban growth management be achieved through intensive infrastructure provision and strict development controls in the “Guided Urban Development Promotion Area” while development in other areas would be curtailed. Economic incentives for private developers would be used to increase densities and thus make land utilization (and transport) much more efficient within the Development Promotion Areas. A density gradient from the dense urban core to lower density outer areas is to be achieved by land use control measures (i.e., “zoning”) in combination with a range of floor area ratio (FAR) and building coverage ratio (BCR) limits. Key Objectives: As part of the overall urban plan, the key objectives of the Urban Transport Master Plan were:  Equal accessibility for all citizens  A safe and pleasant transport system  Sustainable Economic Development  Sound and managed urban growth  Enriched quality of life 3 The population estimates were overtaken by actual growth with the City reaching a population of 2.4 million in 2018. 6 The total development cost of the necessary transport projects and programs are estimated at USD 3,136 million (equivalent to ZMK 11,230 billion), of which about USD 1.0 billion is proposed for urban transport development during the next 20 years (2010-2030). The investments in transportation infrastructure proposed in the Development Plan are: Road network. The proposed arterial road network consists of three ring roads (Outer Ring Road 85.7 km Arterial Motorway, Middle Ring Road 50.5 km Minor Arterial, and Inner Ring Road 37.0 km Major and Minor Arterial), 12 radial roads, and seven other major roads. Traffic service level on roads will remarkably improve if the proposed JST urban transport development plan is imple- mented. Bus transit: In the short-term, the present bus system will continue since public transport has to rely on private sector under the national policy of liberalization and weak financing situation of Lusaka City. Bus network will be expanded through the improvement of the roads, construction of bus stops, and designation of new bus routes. Scheduled bus services on fixed route system will be introduced in the mid-term. Priority or exclusive lane system for scheduled buses as shown in photo will be introduced in 2030. Rail transit: Considering investment cost, rail transit should be introduced only when it is eco- nomically feasible in terms of energy consumption and the reduction of traffic congestion on roads. Further study will be needed to determine whether the railway should be included in the master plan or not. At present, rail transit is proposed as the project beyond 2030, when Zambia becomes a middle income country. Freight traffic. Outer Ring Road will serve as the freight corridor connecting the future industrial zones such as MFEZs and logistics centers Air transport. Lusaka International Airport will deal with air cargo and both international and domestic passengers. The new passenger terminal for international flight and the new building for cargo flight will provide high quality services Stakeholder Consultation Multiple stakeholders were engaged in development of the program in a variety of ways, including:  A number of meetings were held to inform the constituents of the study (See Table 1).  A newsletter of the Study was issued to inform the stakeholders on the study progress. o Hard copies of the newsletter were distributed to stakeholders at individual meet- ings, working group meetings, and stakeholder meetings. 7 o A soft copy of the newsletter was made available through the websites of MLGH and LCC.  Exhibitions were organized to disseminate the master plan and obtain feedbacks from the public, at three different locations, the Lusaka City Council, Arcades, Shopping Mall and the Lusaka City Market Table 1: Results of Stakeholder Meetings Formulation of the Vision and - Introduction of study outputs Feb 2008 Strategy - Discussion on alternatives - Discussion on issues of sub-program Formulation of the Comprehensive Information dissemination to July 2008 Urban Development Plan representatives of communities - Collection of feedbacks from stake- holders including residents Stakeholder meeting on Inner-Ring - Sharing of understanding with the Nov 2008 Road Project stakeholders (ward representatives) on the proposed Inner-Ring Road Project, its expected environmental/social im- pacts, and the social/environmental con- sideration study for the Project - Obtaining comments/suggestions from stakeholders Presentation on the Invite general public and the media to Nov 2008 Comprehensive Master Plan for discuss the draft the City of Lusaka (draft) master plan and obtain their opinions Pre-F/S of Priority Projects Introduction of study outputs Nov 2008 - Discussion on priority projects Finalization of the Study & Information dissemination of the draft Feb 2009 Preparation of the Draft Final master plan and FS to representatives of Report communities - Collection of feedbacks from residents Priority Project. Within the 20-year priority plan, priority projects and programs are proposed for a five-year term (2010-2015). These were selected on the basis of: i) urgency of delivery, ii) ef- fectiveness, iii) viability, iv) environmental soundness. Approximately USD 421 million (ZMK 1,510 billion) is the total estimated cost for the priority projects, of which USD 108 million is for transport improvements (Please see Annex 1 for the list of investments). 8 At the time of this writing, it was not possible to determine if any of the proposed short-term investments were actually financed. LUSAKA DECONGESTION PROJECT In 2017, a set of transport investments intended to “decongest Lusaka” were identified by the Government of Zambia to be financed by the Indian Government. Referred to as the Lusaka De- congestion Project (LDP), they are intended to reduce traffic jams, travel times, travel distances and saveg precious imported fuel. The project is co-financed by Government of Zambia (15%) and Exxim Bank of India (85%) and will take 36 months to complete. The specific project invest- ments were taken from the recommendations of the earlier study conducted by the Japan Interna- tional Cooperation Agency (JICA) in 2009. Key features of the Lusaka Decongestion Project (LDP) are: 1. The total road works of s 120.7 km, with dedicated bus lanes in the medians; 2. Rehabilitation and upgrading of 91.4 km of ring road; 3. A new outer ring road from Kafue road (Makeni) to new Mumbwa road. It will further stretch to Lusaka West and join the Great North Road (Kabwe road) on Chikumbi road. 4. Grade separations at 4 selected points of the city, namely; Kafue road (Makeni junction), Kafue round about, Kabwe roundabout, & Arcades roundabout. 5. Road expansions at Church-Cairo junction, Kabulonga roundabout, Highcourt roundabout, Longacres roundabout and Mosi-O-Tunya. 6. Kasangula, Lake-Mwapona, Nangwenya, Zambezi, Alick Nkhata, Munali-Mutumbi Kam- loops and Buyantanshi Roads will be expanded to 4 lanes. As of July 2018, construction had begun on road rehabilitations and grade separations. Discussions with City Officials revealed a certain nervousness on the likely impact of the project investments. Congestion was getting worse during the construction period and it was not very clear if adding capacity will have any long term impact on alleviating congestion. The City was wondering where planning was deficient and what else could have been done. 9 DISCUSSION THEMES  What are the problems faced by the City?  Does the JICA Development Plan respond to the identified core issues? Are they likely to help the City attain that vision?  Was the Plan based on adequate Consultation? What were the alternatives considered?  Is the plan realistic in terms of finance and implementability?  What are the take away lessons? 10 ANNEX 1: Priority Project/Programs for Short Term Period Implementation Urban Transportation USD Million 1) Inner Ring Road (Mumbwa-Kafue-Kasama, (12.9km) 29.4 2) Outer Ring Road (9.4km)+Lilay Road (7.6km) 31.8 3) LS-MFEZ Access (10.4km) 21.7 4) Airport Road Extension (LN-MFEZ, 6.4km) 4.9 5) Mumbwa road/Los Angeles Road (4.0km) 12.8 6) Kalambo Road/Benbella Road (1.6km) 0.7 7) Bus Institutional Reform 1.0 8) Traffic Management in Town 2.5 9) Intersection Improvement (10 intersections) 3.8 TOTAL 108.6 11 ANNEX 2: Road Network Plan for 2015 12 ANNEX 3: Proposed Land Use Plan 2030 13