A REGIONAL ANALYSIS
OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER
AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES
IN SOUTHERN AFRICA:
STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
The World Bank
August 2021
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ACKNOWLEDGMENT
T
he World Bank team would like to acknowledge the Southern African Development Community
(SADC), the SADC Climate Services Centre and the World Meteorological Organization (Regional
Office for Africa) for their continued guidance throughout the analysis, coordination with
stakeholders in the region and contributions to the report. The report was made possible thanks to the
contributions from national services responsible for meteorology, hydrology, early warning and disaster
risk management in the 16 member states of SADC, River Basin Organisations, regional technical
organisations and representatives from private sector, universities and communities in Southern Africa.
The report was made possible and prepared in the context of the Building Disaster Resilience to Natural
Hazards in Sub-Saharan African Regions, Countries and Communities Program, which is an initiative
of the Organization of the African, Caribbean and Pacific States (OACPS), financed by the European
Union (EU) and implemented by the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery
(GFDRR). The World Bank team is grateful to the Organization of the OACPS, the EU and the African Union
Commission for their overall guidance and leadership to this program.
The report was prepared with the technical guidance and support from Royal HaskoningDHV, AquaLinks
and Weather Impact, with a team led by Tjeerd Driessen and Marieke de Groen with contributions from
Pleun Bonekamp, Fiona van der Burgt, Bradwell Garanganga, Karel Heijnert, Omar Khan, Alphonse
Mujinga, Seun Oyebode, Rene Pearson, Hanneke Schuurmans, and Nicholas Steffens. The World Bank
team for was led by Prashant Singh and Carl Dingel with contributions from Giovanni Castellanos, Makoto
Suwa, and Deon Terblanche. Sonia Quiroga conducted the socio-economic analysis. Darcy Gallucio edited
and Miki Fernandez of Ultra Designs, designed the report. The report also benefited from overall strategic
guidance and support of Sameh Wahba, Meskerem Brhane, Sylvie Debomy, Niels Holm Nielsen and Ana
Campos.
The World Bank as well as all partners and consultants extend their gratitude and appreciation to the
many stakeholders who in many different ways contributed to the study and the development of this
report.
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA i
DISCLAIMER
T
his report was prepared by the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and
Recovery (GFDRR) with contributions from consultants. The findings, analysis and conclusions
expressed in this report do not reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of Directors, the
governments they represent or any of its partner organizations.
Although the World Bank and GFDRR have made all efforts to ensure that the information in this report
is correct, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Use of any data or information from this report is at
the user’s risk. The World Bank, GFDRR or any of its partners shall not be liable for any loss, damage,
liability, or expense because of use of data contained in this document.
The boundaries, colors, denomination, and other information shown in any map in this work do not
imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank and its partners concerning the legal status of any
territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
The program under review in this report was financed by the EU under the 10th European Development
Fund through the ACP Secretariat and was implemented by the World Bank in association with GFDRR.
ii STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Acronyms iv
Executive Summary vii
1. Introduction and Context 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Regional Context 2
1.3 Climate and Disaster Profile of Southern Africa 3
1.4 Hydromet Value Chain 5
2. Status of Hydromet Services in Southern Africa 9
2.1 Methodology for taking stock and evaluating NMHSs 9
2.2 Status of National Meteorological And Hydrological Services 9
2.2.1 Enabling factors 13
2.2.2 Observation and monitoring network 13
2.2.3 Data processing, analysis and modeling 16
2.2.4 Services including early warning 18
2.3 Status of regional services and organizations 19
2.4 Status of private sector engagement and collaboration with universities 22
2.5 Status of collaboration with universities 23
3. Guidance for Strengthening Hydromet and Early Warning Services 25
3.1 Proposed Objectives and Outcomes 25
3.1.1 Outcome A: Stronger institutional capacity of and collaboration between
NMHSs and regional organizations 27
3.1.2 Outcome B. Observations and monitoring networks in the region
are better equipped to support early warning services 27
3.1.3 Outcome C. Improved lead time and accuracy of the hydromet forecast
with emphasis on the key locations for Early Warning 28
3.1.4 Outcome D. Improved generation and dissemination of impact-based
early warnings for communities 28
3.2 Estimating needs for strengthening hydromet and early warning services 28
4. Benefits of investing in hydromet and early warning services 31
4.1 Methodology for the socioeconomic analysis 32
4.2 Estimation of Benefits from Hydromet and Early Warning Services 34
5. Conclusions and Recommendations 37
5.1 Conclusions on the status of Hydromet and Early Warning Services 37
5.2 Recommendations for strengthening hydromet and early warning services
in the SADC region 38
5.3 Recommendations for Implementation 40
6. References 42
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA iii
ACRONYMS
ACCESS Applied Center for Climate and Earth System Science
ACP African, Caribbean and Pacific countries
AfDB African Development Bank
ANACM National Agency of Civil Aviation and Meteorology
AUDA-NEPAD African Union Development Agency–New Partnership for Africa’s Development Southern African
SANWATCE Network of Water Centers of Excellence
CBA Cost-Benefit Anaysis
CICOS Commission Internationale du Bassin Congo-Oubangui-Sangha
CDFS ClimDev-Africa Special Fund
CIRDA Climate Information for Resilient Development and Adaptation
CLIMSOFT Climatological Software
CNDRS Centre National de Documentation et de Recherche Scientifique (Comoros)
CREWS Climate Risks and Early Warning Services
CSC Climate Services Center
DCCMS Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services
DCP Department of Civil Protection (Zimbabwe)
DGPC Direction Generale de la Protection Civile
DODMA Department of Disaster Management Affairs
DRC Democratic Republic of Congo
DMA Disaster Management Agency
DMMU Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit
DNGRH Direcção Nacional de Gestão de Recursos Hídricos (Mozambique)
DRM Disaster Risk Management
DWA Department of Water Affairs
DWR Directorate of Water Resources (Tanzania)
DWS Department of Water and Sanitation (South Africa)
ECMWF European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ENEAM Ecole Nationale d’Enseignement de l’Aéronautique et de la Météorologie
ESPA Ecole Supérieure Polytechnique d’Antananarivo
ECCAS Economic Community of Central African States
EU European Union
EUMETSAT European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites
EWS Early Warning System
FEWSNET Food Early Warning System-Net
GBON Global Basic Observation Network
GCF Green Climate Fund
GISC Global Information System Center
GNI Gross National Income
GPC Global Production Center
iv STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
ACRONYMS
GTS Global Telecommunication System
HYCOS Hydrological Cycle Observing System
Hydromet Hydro-meteorological
HYDSTRA Hydstra/TS is a time-series data management system by Kisters (proprietary)
ICPAC IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center
ICT Information and Communications Technology
IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development
IHP International Hydrological Program
INAM Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Mozambique)
INAMET National Institute for Meteorology and Geophysics (Angola)
INGD Instituto Nacional de Gestão e Redução do Risco de Desastres (Mozambique)
INRH National Institute for Water Resources (Angola)
IOC Indian Ocean Commission
IT Information Technology
LAM Limited Area Model
LIMCOM Limpopo River Basin Commission
LMS Lesotho Meteorological Services
LRR Loss Reduction Rate
MASA Meteorological Association of Southern Africa
METCAP Common Alerting Protocol
METTELSAT Agence Nationale de Météorologie et de Télédétection par Satellite (DRC)
NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NDMA National Disaster Management Authority
NDMC National Disaster Management Center
NHS National Hydrological Services
NMHS National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
NMS National Meteorological Services
NPV Net Present Value
OKACOM Okavango River Basin Commission
ORASECOM Orange-Senqu River Basin Commission
PeriPeri U Partners Enhancing Resilience for People Exposed to Risks
PMO-DMD Prime Minister’s Office - Disaster Management Department (Tanzania)
PPE Public-Private Engagement
RSMC Regional Specialized Meteorological Center
RTC Regional Training Center
RTH Regional Telecommunications Hub
SADC Southern African Development Community
SARCOF South African Regional Climate Outlook Forum
SARFFGS Southern Africa Regional Flash Flood Guidance System
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA v
ACRONYMS
SASSCAL Southern African Science Service Center for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management
SAWS South African Weather Service
SEB Socio-Economic Benefits
TAHMO Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory
TMA Tanzania Meteorological Authority
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
VLab Virtual Laboratory
WARMA Water Resources Management Authority (Zambia)
WIGOS WMO Integrated Global Observing System Center
WISER Weather and Climate Information Services for Africa
WMO World Meteorological Organization
WRF Weather Research and Forecasting
ZAMCOM Zambezi River Basin Commission
ZAMWIS Zambezi Water Resources Information Systems
ZINWA Zimbabwe National Water Authority
ZMD Zambia Meteorological Department
SMA Seychelles Meteorological Authority
vi STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
S
outhern Africa is highly vulnerable to extreme weather, climate and water-related events. These
include droughts and floods; severe convective storms accompanied by heavy rain, lightning,
hail and strong winds; tropical storms and cyclones causing storm surges, strong wind and heavy
rainfall; and frontal systems that bring freezing weather and snowfalls to the southern parts of the region.
The region is home to approximately 345 million people whose lives and livelihoods are directly affected
by the impacts of extreme weather and climate events. The southern African nations are organized
through the Southern African Development Community (SADC) which comprises of 16 Member States.
In line with global trends, natural hazards in the SADC region have been increasing in frequency and
intensity over the past three decades and warming over the region is faster than the global average. The
entire region is affected (in descending order of exposure) by droughts, floods, cyclones, and earthquakes.
Meteorological, climatological, and hydrological services, in this context referred to jointly as “hydromet
services”, play an important role in providing timely and adequate information for early warning. Early
warning can save lives and will improve the management of sectors of the economy, such as agriculture,
industry, power production and transport. The objective of the report is threefold:
● gain a better understanding of the status of the hydromet services in the different SADC Member States,
● identify challenges that could best be addressed with a regional approach, and to
● identify needs for strengthening hydromet services with a specific focus on early warning services.
Status of Hydromet Services in Southern Africa
Using the metric developed for this study, most National Meteorological Services (NMSs) have a higher
level of maturity than the National Hydrological Services (NHSs) in the same country (see table ES1).
The NHSs are often non- or semi-autonomous departments as part of the Ministry of Water. Their limited
capacity is therefore often focusing on providing advice on water use licenses and decision support to
feasibility studies for infrastructure. As a result, the scope of further hydrological services including flood
and drought warnings is generally very limited.
Most organizations have basic challenges such as insufficient funds to pay staff salaries and basic
infrastructure needs. Few NMHSs engage actively with sectors and users providing only in few cases
dedicated services to those sectors. As a result, services for the large economic sectors, including the
important agricultural sector, are generally basic.
The early warnings for floods and hydrological droughts are mainly based on observations and weather
forecasts or climate outlooks, not on hydrological and/or hydraulic modeling. The cascading forecasting
process, which promotes the use of global and regional forecasts to be interpreted nationally, is applied,
but its value is limited due to the low number of observations feeding into the global models and/or
validating outputs of such models. This is a result of challenges in the observation infrastructure, but also
of limitations in information technology (IT) infrastructure, license fees and human capacity to make use
of the global and regional services.
Many current meteorological and hydrological stations are not operational, while networks are already
not sufficiently dense for initialization and calibration of the global weather models and for early warning
on hydrological events. While there are needs expressed for extending these networks, the current
capacities are not sufficient to get the operability of the current networks higher.
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA vii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Communication and coordination with Disaster Risk Management (DRM) agencies can be improved.
To some extent Standard Operating Procedures are in place. However, the NMHSs are resourceful in
managing with the limited means they have and are attempting to apply concepts such as impact based
forecasting to improve early warning services.
Table ES1: Maturity scores for national meteorological and hydrological services
National Meteorological Services National Hydrological Services
Questions Questions
answered answered
Maturity score (%) Score Level (%) Score Level
Angola 78% 59% Essential 68% 38% Basic
Botswana 73% 50% Essential 77% 23% Basic
Comoros 47% 25% Basic Not applicable
DRC 47% 14% Below Basic Not assessed
Eswatini 84% 42% Essential 79% 23% Basic
Lesotho 88% 45% Essential 83% 47% Essential
Madagascar 77% 62% Full 42% 9% Below Basic
Malawi 86% 57% Essential 79% 36% Basic
Mauritius 96% 67% Full 64% 28% Basic
Mozambique 50% 32% Basic 60% 53% Essential
Namibia 94% 43% Essential 94% 42% Essential
Seychelles 97% 63% Full Not applicable
South Africa 99% 92% Advanced 91% 75% Full
Tanzania 92% 84% Advanced 83% 38% Basic
Zambia 91% 50% Essential 72% 43% Essential
Zimbabwe 95% 66% Full 81% 42% Essential
Guidance for strengthening hydromet and early warning services
Drawing from the analysis of the status of weather, climate, water and early warning services in the
region, an action plan for strengthening hydromet services has been formulated. The goal of the
proposed action plan is “to have NMHSs within the SADC region that are capable to (better) provide impact-
based early warning services on climate, weather and water hazards.”
The vision is that by 2030 (and, where possible by 2025) in all SADC member states essential early
warning services can be provided and that service levels have improved in this regard. Regional
Centers have sustained and modernized their operation, providing adequate services to the countries,
communities and businesses in Southern Africa, and support Member States in a cascading approach.
Based on the analysis in the stocktaking report, four outcomes were identified to achieve this goal:
A. Stronger institutional capacity of and collaboration between NMHSs and regional organizations
B. Observations and monitoring networks in the region are better equipped to support early warning
services
C. Improved lead time and accuracy of the hydromet forecast with emphasis on the key locations
D. Improved generation and dissemination of impact-based early warnings for specific user groups
viii STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Based on the findings of the stocktaking phase, a regional investment framework and action plan has
been prepared to strengthen early warning services. It should be highlighted that:
● The needs to strengthen are estimated at US$ 116 million. In addition, US$ 89.4 million would be
required as operation expenses for 10 years and 277 staff would need to be mobilized to execute the
actions.
● The total operational costs and the additionally required staff costs would considerably exceed the
gross capital investments. This makes explicit the liabilities that are a result of the investments, which
need to be carried by the Member States.
● Member States will also need to reserve additional funding for annual depreciation of goods and works
to sustain the services after the lifespan of equipment. This reservation is not included in the total
budget.
In table ES2 below the estimated costs per outcome and for regional and national level are presented.
Table ES2: SADC region hydromet investment costs per outcome
Gross Capital Investments and Actions
(in US$ million)
Outcome Works Goods Consultancies Training Total
Outcome A 0 0.5 3.0 6.7 10.2
Outcome B 4.9 25.2 8.1 8.6 46.8
Outcome C 0 3.8 9.7 18.7 32.2
Outcome D 2.6 2.6 20.4 1.6 27.1
Total 7.5 31.2 41.2 35.6 116.3
Benefit of Investing in Hydromet Services
The benefits of investing in hydromet services, also with narrow focus on early warning services, are
substantial, particularly due to the foregone damages and losses from floods and droughts in the region.
The report focusses only on hydromet services related to early warning. The estimation of socio-economic
benefits is thus also related only to the direct and indirect benefits of early warning services and not for
example on agrometeorology. It is however acknowledged that potentially the socio-economic benefits
would be higher, but also that substantially more would need to be done to effectively provide different
user communities with, such as agriculture, transport, or insurance, with adequate early warning services.
The socio-economic benefit analysis highlights the potentially huge benefits, which can be achieved for
different sectors of the economy. With the proposed actions and investments benefits of US$ 7 to US$ 12
for every US$ 1 invested are estimated.
Recommendations
Building upon the existing strong regional institutions the following recommendations are proposed for
the implementation of those actions:
● Strengthening hydromet services in Southern Africa requires substantial investments and concerted
efforts from governments, development partners and the private sector. For actions to strengthen hy-
dromet services related to early warning, the gross investment costs are estimated to be US$ 116 mil-
lion. In addition, commitments from governments on operation and maintenance, staffing and training
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA ix
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
are prerequisite for making the envisioned outcomes of such investment sustainable. These costs
can be substantial and are estimated over a period of 10 years at US$ 89.4 million for operation
and maintenance. While it makes sense for governments to prioritize funding of hydromet services,
additional grants, loans and public-private partnerships might be needed to source this finance, in
particular during this difficult period of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Adequate provision
of hydromet services to vulnerable communities and economic sectors needs such investments. How-
ever, it is realized that implementing all actions simultaneously may not be possible financially and
in terms of capacity of the organisations. Therefore, allowing an incremental increase in capacity of
NMHS may be the most durable way forward.
● Regional cooperation between the various role players in the hydromet value chain, of which the
NMHSs and disaster management structures are central, is a key success driver for improving hy-
dromet services and EWS in the region.
● Differences in climate, organizational structure, existing hydromet value chain, potential partner-
ships with the private sector and available financial and human resources all need to be considered
for a detailed design of country-level investments and actions.
● The modernization of hydromet and early warning services in Southern Africa should complement
and leverage ongoing initiatives, such as the Global Framework for Climate Services, Climate Risks
and Early Warning Services (CREWS), WMO’s Systematic Observations Financing Facility (SOFF) and
other projects or programs targeted towards hydromet modernization. Notably, the SOFF would be
an important program, as it aims to provide finance for bringing observation networks to Global
Basic Observation Network (GBON) standards. These GBON standards are developed to improve the
performance of global weather forecasting models, which are important in the cascading approach of
forecasting. Also, the program coordinated by the Indian Ocean Commission that has started in 2021
may cover some of the actions for the island states.
● A program for modernizing hydromet and early warning services in Southern Africa should be the
joint effort of national governments, regional organisations, including SADC and River Basin Organi-
sations, private sector and development partners and be part of the global structure, such as GBON.
As a next step, the report should be taken forward through the Hydromet Alliance, which is a part-
nership of WMO, other UN organisations and multilateral development Banks, including World Bank.
Individual country assessments, with operation, maintenance and staffing plans would need to follow
to operationalize the recommendations of the report.
x STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
1 • INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT
1.1 Introduction
Southern Africa is highly vulnerable to extreme weather, climate, and water-related events. These
include droughts and floods; severe convective storms accompanied by heavy rain, lightning, hail and
strong winds; tropical storms and cyclones causing storm surges, strong wind and heavy rainfall; and
frontal systems that bring freezing weather and snowfalls to the southern parts of the region. The region
is home to approximately 345 million people whose lives and livelihoods are directly affected by the
impacts of extreme weather and climate events. The southern African nations are organized through
the Southern African Development Community (SADC) which comprises of 16 Member States: Angola,
Botswana, Comoros, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius,
Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
In 2021, the SADC, together with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), World Bank, European
Union (EU) and other partners, hosted the first Hydromet Forum. The purpose was to discuss and set
priorities to strengthen weather, water, and climate information as well as disaster risk management
strategies and services for sustainable development and reducing regional disaster and climate risks.
The participants discussed the critical role of hydromet and early warning services for sectors that drive
the region’s economies, such as agriculture, urban and industrial activities, and aviation and marine
services, and for combating the socio-economic impacts of disaster and climate risks. In this context,
the term “hydromet” services is defined as meteorological (weather and climate) and hydrological (water
resources and flooding hydrology and hydraulic) services. In this report, the organizations responsible for
meteorological services and hydrological services are referred to as respectively National Meteorological
Services (NMSs) and National Hydrological Services (NHSs), or jointly National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services (NMHSs). To provide timely and accurate early warning, they need to cooperate
and coordinate with each other. They also need to make use of regional and global information as many
weather systems impact several countries at a time and several river catchments are shared between
countries. However, they are all resource constrained. To further improve early warning, they would need
support from each other, the private and academic sectors, and development partners.
In Southern Africa, the coordination between disaster risk reduction and hydromet services is among
others advanced by SADC. It formulated the SADC Disaster Risk Reduction Strategic Plan, and it
facilitates the Southern African Climate Outlook Forums through SADC Climate Services Centre (SADC
CSC). It assists NMSs through regional investment programs and facilitated the establishment of river
basin organizations (RBOs) to manage transboundary river basins. The region is also home to several
WMO designated regional centers covering topics ranging from training and meteorological data
communication to guidance on severe weather, seasonal forecasts and tropical cyclone advice, based on
the competencies of the host organizations.
The study’s objective is to take stock of the state of hydromet services and early warning systems in SADC
Member States, to identify opportunities for regional collaboration and to inform investment planning
in those services. This study builds on various previous studies for evaluating and advising on national
hydromet services in developing countries (Rogers et al. 2019; WMO 2015; World Bank 2019, among
other) to identify good fit for NMHSs in Southern Africa.
The study was carried out in a fully virtual manner during the COVID-19 global pandemic. The analysis
was based on an online questionnaire with responses from 49 organizations, 23 online workshops, many
bilateral phone calls and expert judgment. The analysis and study results have been validated with the
region in two virtual workshops. This summary report is informed by the following components:
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 1
1 • INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT
● Taking stock of the existing national climate, weather and water services in Southern Africa as well as
the challenges, needs and opportunities
● Providing guidance on strengthening early warning services in Southern Africa
● Analyzing academic and private-sector engagement in the provision of hydromet and early warning
services in Southern Africa
1.2 Regional Context
The total population in the SADC region has grown from 277 million in 2010 to over 340 million in 2018
and is expected to continue growing to about 500 million by 2050. Southern Africa also has countries
with very different country sizes and population densities, development statuses and economies.
Botswana, Namibia, Mauritius, Seychelles, and South Africa are high-income or upper-middle-income
countries, where agriculture contributes marginally to GDP. Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar,
Malawi, and Mozambique are low-income countries where agriculture contributes significantly to GDP.
In Malawi and Mozambique, more than 70 percent of the population is employed in agriculture. Table 1
provides an overview of the key country and development indicators.
Table 1. Overview of key country indicators for SADC member states
Total Rural GDP* Employment in Income level
Pop. Pop. GDP* per capita Agriculture Agriculture Income group
2018 2018 2018 2018 2014-18 avg 2018 (GNI per capita,
Country million % $ billion $ % of GDP % of total 2018)**
Angola 30.8 34.5 99.6 3,234 9.03 50.9 Lower middle
Botswana 2.3 30.6 18.1 8,033 2.06 20.4 Upper middle
Comoros 0.8 71.0 1.2 1,403 31.3 35.0 Lower middle
DRC 84.1 55.5 35.2 418 18.9 64.8 Low
Eswatini 1.1 76.2 5.4 4,762 8.9 12.5 Lower middle
Lesotho 2.1 71.8 2.6 1,248 4.5 44.9 Lower middle
Madagascar 26.3 62.8 12.7 484 25.1 64.7 Low
Malawi 18.1 83.1 9.5 521 25.5 76.6 Low
Mauritius 1.3 59.2 13.4 10,577 3.1 6.2 High
Mozambique 29.5 64.0 17.5 593 23.9 70.6 Low
Namibia 2.4 50.0 14.8 6,029 7.4 22.6 Upper middle
Seychelles 0.1 43.3 1.4 14,140 2.1 n/a High
South Africa 57.8 33.6 429.5 7,432 2.2 5.2 Upper middle
Tanzania 56.3 66.2 52.4 959 27.3 65.7 Lower middle
Zambia 17.4 56.5 29.1 1,678 5.1 50.1 Lower middle
Zimbabwe 14.4 67.8 18.6 1,289 7.5 50.1 Lower middle
Source: World Bank (2021b). Note: *Gross domestic product (constant 2010 dollars); **World Bank classification.
In urbanization, the region paints a very diverse picture. Urban population growth in the last five years
(2016-2020) has ranged between 1.6 percent in Eswatini to 5.0 percent in Tanzania (World Bank 2021a).
Mauritius is the only regional country not to experience urban population growth in this period. Angola,
Botswana and South Africa are the most urbanized countries, while Eswatini, Lesotho and Malawi are
the least urbanized countries. In many cases, dense cities are prone to flash floods. Food security is an
issue across Southern Africa due to limited purchasing power and high climate variability.
2 STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
1 • INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT
1.3 Climate and Disaster Profile of Southern Africa
Apart from human density differences and economic circumstances, Southern Africa also has a wide
variety of climates and geographies. Climate types include an arid coastal desert along the west coast of
South Africa and Namibia, a semi-arid temperate climate with summer rainfall over the interior central
plateau, a humid subtropical climate over the low-lying coastal regions of the southeast, and a winter
rainfall Mediterranean climate in the south-western part of South Africa. The oceans and the geography
influence the differences, with the movement of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone and the influence
of tropical systems and cyclones as well as frontal systems also playing a role in annual variations. Large
parts of the region are also affected by convective storms that are often accompanied by heavy rain,
strong winds, reduced visibility, lightning and hail.
In line with global trends, natural hazards in the SADC region have been increasing in frequency and
intensity over the past three decades and warming over the region is faster that the global average. The
entire region is affected (in descending order of exposure) by droughts, floods, cyclones. However, these
hazards are only the most extensive ones; countries and cities in the region are affected by other hazards
such as sea level rise, heat stress, fire hazards, storm surges and volcanic eruptions. Disasters resulting
from these hazards have a domino effect especially on urban systems, as they have primary local impacts
(infrastructure damage and loss of lives and livelihoods) and secondary ripple effects in neighboring and
distant cities and towns due to interconnected trade networks and ecosystems. Table 2 summarizes the
average annual flood loss based on EMDAT data between 1960 and 2019 (Guha Saphir et al., 2021).
Table 2: Southern Africa regional flood impacts and potential benefits of hydromet services for floods
(source: Guha Saphir et al., 2021)
C. Total D. Estimated average E. Estimated average
A. Flood B. Flood affected annual damages* annual avoided damages
Country episodes frequency 1 per episode ($ millions) ($ millions)
Angola 45 1.50 28,793 306.54 39.85
Botswana 11 0.23 16,235 26.97 3.51
Comoros 2 0.20 33,819 48.01 6.24
DRC 35 1.21 31,006 248.47 32.30
Eswatini 3 0.16 91,633 102.69 13.35
Lesotho 5 0.15 37,000 38.62 5.02
Madagascar 10 0.30 29,646 63.76 8.29
Malawi 42 0.81 91,684 525.59 68.33
Mauritius 1 0.17 82 0.10 0.01
Mozambique 42 0.81 239,760 1,374.47 178.68
Namibia 16 0.84 68,960 412.17 53.58
Seychelles 2 0.09 2,836 1.83 0.24
South Africa 42 0.70 13,939 69.26 9.00
Tanzania 52 0.95 24,532 164.62 21.40
Zambia 22 0.54 267,473 1,018.66 132.43
Zimbabwe 12 0.57 28,669 116.27 15.12
Total 543.99
Note: Calculations are based on annualized avoidable damages. $1 = LRR 0.32; * Damage x Affected x FP.
Note: The values are annualized considering the flood frequency, so considered for every year, not only for those years with a
flood episode occurring.
1
Flood frequency is calculated as EM-DAT reported episodes with respect to total based on Lesk, Rowhani and
Ramankutty (2006).
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 3
1 • INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT
Ecosystems do not follow administrative boundaries. Apart from local impacts of climate, also
transboundary aspects play a role and regional cooperation is therefore important. In Southern Africa,
climate and hazard patterns are not equally distributed and are often transboundary. Several river
basins responsible for major floods are transboundary (Figure 1) and droughts often have impact on
several countries at the same time.
Figure 1: SADC political boundaries and major river basins2
SADC Political Boundaries and Major River Basins
Mauritius
Seychelles
Buzi Limpopo Rovuma Capital Cities
Congo Madagascar Save Watercourses
Cuvelai Maputo Umbeluzi Waterbodies
Incomati Okavango Zambezi Political Boundaries
Kunene Orange-Senqu
SADC (2016).
2
4 STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
1 • INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT
Droughts occur frequently in the region and have devastating and far-reaching impacts. Each year in
most countries, drought is experienced somewhere, dependent on the definition used. Between 1980
and 2000, the SADC region was struck by four major regional droughts.
● In 2015/16, El Niño disrupted the agricultural season, with major parts of Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia,
South Africa and Zimbabwe declaring drought emergencies and this drought cycle lasted for some
years. Prolonged droughts have impacted food security. For example, in the 2018/19 agricultural sea-
son, about 10.8 million people were affected by food insecurity (OCHA 2019).
Floods and tropical cyclones often lead to significant damage and loss of infrastructure, lives and
livelihoods:
● Flooding impacts nearly every country in Southern Africa. Floods are common events in the river ba-
sins of the Congo, Limpopo, Okavango and Zambezi and affect cities and human settlements in Angola,
Botswana, DRC, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. In the Zambezi River
catchment areas, floods frequently impact Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
● Cyclones and tropical storms mostly impact countries along the Indian Ocean Coast: Madagascar, Mo-
zambique and the Indian Ocean islands. The cyclone season runs from November to May. While the
area of land affected is vast, the threat to coastal cities in Mozambique and river basins stretching
inland to areas in neighboring countries (Malawi and Zimbabwe) is equally important. The impacts can
cause flooding and subsequent landslides. Hence, these storm events often lead to severe flooding and
cause acute damages and losses. In 2018/ 2019, Cyclones Idai and Kenneth caused extensive damage,
even reaching inward-located countries: 975,600 and 270,000 people were affected in Malawi and
Zimbabwe, respectively.
The frequency and intensity of these hazards differ but their risk has been increasing with climate change
and the growing population within the region. However, uncertainty surrounds the extent and location of
the increasing extremes. Temperature changes are more certain than precipitation changes. Projections
suggest that Southern Africa will be substantially affected by changing temperature and rainfall
patterns as well as an increased number and possibly more severe cyclones in the Indian Ocean
region (Sesolle 2012). In general, SADC has experienced a downward trend in its regional rainfall
pattern, with below normal rainfall becoming more frequent, which in combination with higher
evaporation losses due to warmer temperatures, impacts regional water resources negatively.
Livelihoods and economies in Southern Africa are vulnerable to weather and climate shocks. Notably,
countries that are highly dependent on agriculture and employ a large part of the population in agriculture
have experienced substantial impacts on livelihoods and economies.
1.4 Hydromet Value Chain
Investing in hydromet services is commonly considered a priority “low regret” climate adaptation
and disaster risk reduction strategy. While methodologies to assess the economic benefits of these
investments are still evolving, the literature suggests that such activities can be extremely beneficial.
These investments help to avert losses associated with climate hazards and enhance the productivity of
climate-dependent sectors, such as agriculture, water resources management, hydropower and transport.
The hydromet value chain (figure 3) shows that value, in economic and social terms, starts with
observation of climate through to decision-making and outcomes (WMO 2015a). As such, the value of
an accurate, timely and relevant forecast can only be maximized if a beneficial value is achieved at the
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 5
1 • INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT
end of the process. Any project design on the modernization of hydromet and disaster risk management
services should be designed around an effective value chain that links the monitoring and modeling with
concrete services to different sectors of the economy and communities. Merely improving observations
or forecasts, through improved technologies, for example, will not necessarily generate economic value
unless the entire value chain process works to facilitate impacts and end-user decision-making.
Figure 3: National Hydromet Services production and delivery system components (above); Hydromet
value chain (below)3
Processing and data management
Weather
Climate Observations Modelling Forecasting Service delivery
Water
Research and development
COMMUNICATION PROCESSES
Service Production Basic and
specialized services User decisions
Weather NMHS and and actions
Outcomes
Climate commercial providers
Water
VALUE-ADDING PROCESSES
Source: WMO 2015a.
3
6 STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
1 • INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT
In this report, hydromet services are a combination of weather, climate and hydrological services, not of
hydrometeorology in its stricter sense. Weather and climate services that do not have a direct relationship
with hydrology (such as aviation) are included in the stocktaking. However, not all hydrological services
have been included in the stocktaking. Groundwater and water-quality services have not been included,
as in most cases they are not in the hydrology section of the water departments that were involved in
the survey. The hydromet value chain represents the interlinked and interdependent building blocks that
are needed to translate the actual weather, water and climate conditions into services and products to
inform wise decisions be society. For the analysis in this study, the hydromet value chain described in
WMO (2015) has been applied in a simplified form:
● Enabling factors strengthen all blocks of the value chain and include institutional capacity, such as
staff numbers, overall IT capacity and power supply and ways of dissemination.
● Observation and monitoring include surface-based observations and remote-sensing observations.
● Data processing, analysis and modeling include modeling for analyses and forecasts.
● Services include all services for end-users.
The NMS and NHS in each country, are jointly in charge of organizing and/or facilitating the strengthening
of the hydromet value chain while a growing number of other stakeholders are involved and contributing
to the value chain, especially in recent years. The DRM organization is an important user of information
from the NMHS for early warning and the inputs of the DRM organizations have therefore also been
received during this study.
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 7
High tide at a caravan park, Hermanus, South Africa. Photo: Melissa Jooste / Alamy Stock Photo
2 • STATUS OF HYDROMET SERVICES
IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
2.1 Methodology for taking stock and evaluating NMHSs
This stocktaking of existing weather, climate, and water services in Southern Africa, including the
challenges and needs, aims to better understand the status of hydromet services in the region. Three
reports played a key role for the development of the survey and to assess maturity levels: Weathering
the Change (Rogers et al. 2019), The Power of Partnership (World Bank 2019) and WMO Capacity
Development Strategy and Implementation Plan (WMO 2015). After the survey, virtual workshops in
each country and bilateral telephone calls took place to fill any gaps and clarify or correct responses.
This resulted in a comprehensive set of responses that crystalized the status of hydromet services in
Southern Africa.
The categorization and evaluation of the NMHSs on the four components of the hydromet value chain
was assisted by scoring to describe the level of maturity. The maturity score is based on the information
provided by the organizations, on all four components of the hydromet value chain and on multiple
choice questions in the survey. The categories described in the WMO Capacity Development Strategy and
Implementation Plan (WMO 2015) were used as a reference to link multiple choice answers to certain
levels. Those WMO-categories are Basic, Essential, Full and Advanced. In addition, a fifth category
‘Below Basic’ was introduced for instances where the Basic level was not achieved. The method is further
explained in Box 1.
Box 1: Calculation maturity scores and levels
For each question that contributed to the maturity score, the multiple-choice options were connected to a certain WMO-
category. For the organizational maturity score, the scores for all answers (1 for Basic, 2 for Essential, 3 for Full and 4 for
Advanced) were summed up and divided by the maximum number of points that could be obtained from the questions
answered. For example, if a country answered a question in a way that corresponds with a ‘Basic’ level where one could
score ‘Advanced’ as highest score, the country retrieved 1 out of 4 points, while 4 was added to the maximum number of
points that could be obtained. Since not all organizations answered the survey to the same extent, it should be noted that
the organizational maturity score is not always calculated based on the same number and type of questions. Hence, caution
and diligence are needed to correctly interpret the organizational maturity scores. The organizational maturity scores
described as a percentage were then translated to 1 of the 5 maturity levels (that is, Below Basic: not more than 20%, Basic:
between 20% and 40%, Essential: between 40% and 60%, Full: between 60% and 80%, Advanced: more than 80%).
The overall maturity scores are based on averaging and this does not mean all requirements of WMO for a certain lower
category are then fulfilled. The scores are used to get an overall impression on how the NMHS organizations for the different
countries compare. Hence, the maturity levels are qualitative levels after assessment of the entire hydromet value chain of
the organizations and explain how advanced an organization is in addressing all components of the hydromet value chain.
2.2 Status of National Meteorological And Hydrological Services
The 16 member states of SADC have a very diverse range of NMHSs, which are in most cases under
the authority of different ministries and departments. Table 3 provides an overview of the national
organizations responsible for weather and climate services, water services and early warning and disaster
risk management. In most countries, the NMS is an autonomous organization and the NHS is part of the
ministry responsible for water resource management. As a result, the NHS is not only providing early
warning services, but also conducting hydrological analyses for water-use licenses, for monitoring water
use and for supporting feasibility studies. The responsibilities of the NHSs between countries also differ,
depending on the presence/absence of catchment management agencies and whether geohydrology and
water quality departments are separate or included in what is referred to as the NHS.
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 9
2 • STATUS OF HYDROMET SERVICES
IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
Table 3: Overview of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and Disaster Risk
Management Organizations in SADC Member States
Country NMS NHS DRM
National Institute for National Institute for Water
Angola Angola DRM*
Meteorology and Geophysics Resources
Hydrology/Surface Water
Department of National Disaster
Botswana Division, Department of
Meteorological Services Management Office
Water Affairs
Direction Generale de
Direction de la Météorologie
la Protection Civile,
(represented by L’Agence
Limited activity or non- represented by Centre
Comoros Nationale de l’Aviation Civile
existent National de Documentation
et de la Météorologie de
et de Recherche
l’Union des Comores
Scientifique
Democratic Agence Nationale de la Météorologie et de Télédétection Direction Nationale de la
Republic of Congo par satellite Protection Civile
Eswatini Meteorological Directorate Hydrology: National Disaster
Eswatini
Service Department of Water Affairs Management Authority
Lesotho Meteorological Disaster Management
Lesotho Department of Water Affairs
Services Agency
National Bureau for Disaster
Madagascar Direction General de la Météorologie
Risk Reduction*
Department of Climate
Department of Water Department of Disaster
Malawi Change and Meteorological
Resources Management Affairs
Services
Ministry of Energy & Public National Disaster Risk
Mauritius Meteorological
Mauritius Utilities (Water Resources Reduction and Management
Services
Unit) Center
Direcção Nacional de Instituto Nacional de
Instituto Nacional de
Mozambique Gestão de Recursos Gestão e Redução do Risco
Meteorologia
Hídricos de Desastres)
National Hydrological
Namibia Meteorological Services of Namibia, Directorate Disaster Risk
Namibia
Service Ministry of Agriculture, Management
Water and Land Reform
Seychelles Meteorological Limited activity or Department of Risk and
Seychelles
Authority nonexistent Disaster Management*
Directorate: Surface and
South African Weather Groundwater Information, National Disaster
South Africa
Service Department of Water and Management Center
Sanitation
Ministry of Water - Prime Minister’s Office
Tanzania Meteorological
Tanzania Directorate Water - Disaster Management
Authority
Resources Department
Zambia Meteorological Zambia Water Resources Disaster Management and
Zambia
Department Management Authority Mitigation Unit
Meteorological Services Zimbabwe National Water Department of Civil
Zimbabwe
Department Authority Protection
* Organizations that did not participate in the study.
10 STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
2 • STATUS OF HYDROMET SERVICES
IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
The maturity scores for the NHSs and NMSs as per the described method, are presented in table 4 and
illustrated in figures 4 and 5.4 The scores indicate that regional NHSs are weaker than NMSs, consistent
with global trends. In general, NHSs are mandated and managed to a lesser extent than NMSs. The small
island states and Madagascar are historically weak in hydrological services but have relatively good
NMSs. Comoros and Seychelles rely scarcely on surface water for water supply; thus, surface water
hydrology of their NHS is not well developed. In DRC, hydrological services for navigation and electricity
are provided by, respectively, the Regies des Voies Fluviales (RVF) and the Société Nationale d’Electricité
(SNEL). METTELSAT provides meteorological and hydrological services, but its hydrological services are
not well developed, which is concerning from a disaster risk management perspective.
Table 4: Maturity of NMSs and NHSs in SADC member states
NMS NHS
Questions Questions
Maturity score answered (%) Score Level answered (%) Score Level
Angola 78% 59% Essential 68% 38% Basic
Botswana 73% 50% Essential 77% 23% Basic
Comoros 47% 25% Basic Not applicable
DRC 47% 14% Below Basic Not assessed
Eswatini 84% 42% Essential 79% 23% Basic
Lesotho 88% 45% Essential 83% 47% Essential
Madagascar 77% 62% Full 42% 9% Below Basic
Malawi 86% 57% Essential 79% 36% Basic
Mauritius 96% 67% Full 64% 28% Basic
Mozambique 50% 32% Basic 60% 53% Essential
Namibia 94% 43% Essential 94% 42% Essential
Seychelles 97% 63% Full Not applicable
South Africa 99% 92% Advanced 91% 75% Full
Tanzania 92% 84% Advanced 83% 38% Basic
Zambia 91% 50% Essential 72% 43% Essential
Zimbabwe 95% 66% Full 81% 42% Essential
Note: Not all requirements for a WMO category have been met. NMS maturity score is for the combination of meteorological and
climatological services, while the NHS score is for hydrological services only.
4
Note: Maturity scores for NHSs in Comoros, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Seychelles were not analyzed
for lack of response to the survey.
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 11
2 • STATUS OF HYDROMET SERVICES
IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
Figure 4: Map showing maturity of NMSs by SADC member state
Figure 5: Map showing maturity of NHSs by SADC member state
12 STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
2 • STATUS OF HYDROMET SERVICES
IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
2.2.1 Enabling factors
The hydromet value chain only functions properly with sufficient enabling factors. Five such factors are:
institutional capacity, research & development, education & training, data and information dissemination,
and infrastructure. They help determine the feasibility and sustainability of investments.
In looking across the SADC region, mandates, strategic goals, business plans and capacity- building plans
are unclear or nonexistent. Mandates tend to be clearer for NMSs than for NHSs, which have fewer staff.
NMSs tend to assess their own institutional capacity more positively than NHSs, and all face considerable
challenges in attracting qualified and experienced personnel and resources for staff salaries.
The dissemination of data and information is weak. Most countries have challenges with Standard
Operating Procedures, such as the exchange of information between NMSs and NHSs. For DRM agencies,
serious challenges exist in terms of chosen medium, format type and interpretation of information
received from NMHSs. In general, NMHS websites have very limited functionality for disseminating
information.
Regional NMSs and NHSs face modernization challenges. In addition to limited financial and human
resources, the processes for accessing development financing are often complex and not well understood by
these technical agencies. NMHSs also do not always have the capacity to implement such large programs.
In terms of infrastructure, interrupted power supply, poor internet connectivity and/or equipment issues
pose substantial challenges and form a bottleneck for implementing region-wide or centralized solutions.
These factors also adversely affect communication links between field stations, central offices, and
service beneficiaries. In many instances, additional IT expertise and infrastructure will be required prior
to investment. Yet, NMHSs are resourceful and try to provide the maximum level of services within their
means and (where existent) mandates.
2.2.2 Observation and monitoring network
For most countries, a large proportion of weather, rainfall and river- and reservoir-gauging stations
are not operational, and the observation networks are limited (table 5). Most NMHSs are not able to
sustainably operate, maintain and calibrate the existing network due to lack of capacity (for example,
financial resources, spare parts, transport means or limited capable staff at regional offices). Keeping
observation stations functional and providing appropriate maintenance and repair is a challenge due to
vandalism, limited availability of spare parts and limited funding for salaries and infrastructure. While
current observation networks are not well maintained or are (for other reasons) not operational, most
NMSs and NHSs have high ambitions to increase the number of observation stations.
For most NMSs in the region, the frequency of upper air measurements is too low in most countries for
proper model initialization. Only four NMSs conduct daily upper-air measurements. About half of the
NMSs indicated that lightning detection systems need to be developed or improved. SAWS operates
a Vaisala-based lightning detection system consisting of 24 sensors and has apart from including it in
the information provided to forecasters also developed sector specific services in this regard. Such a
system would be easier to set up than radar, would partly improve the understanding of rainfall, assist
in the identification of convective storms and their evolution and would enable services to lightning
sensitive sectors. Regional cooperation is important, as the more stations are providing the distance to
lightning for a location assessment, the more accurate the location and intensity of thunderstorms can
be determined.
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 13
2 • STATUS OF HYDROMET SERVICES
IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
The use of weather radar is limited in the region, with only South Africa and Tanzania having radars
operational. Many countries have the ambition to deploy this technology. These systems are expensive to
acquire and maintain, require specialized mechanical, electrical and ICT skill and extensive supporting
infrastructure to ensure reliable power, communication and data processing. Despite being the primary
tool for Nowcasting and effective in real-time areal rainfall estimation, only SAWS has largely been
successful in operating and using a weather radar network of the past approximate 25 years.
Especially for NHSs, the state of hydrological stations is concerning. In most SADC countries, more than
30 percent of current flow gauges are not operational. While some may be reported as operational, their
rating curves need higher accuracy to derive the flows from the measured water levels.
Usage of satellite remote-sensing data products from different providers is common for NMSs. The
products from the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT)
are the most widely used, by 11 countries. Building capacity and ongoing training to optimize the use
of the vast range of applications available from satellites, such as EUMETSAT, is still important, in
particular because of the challenges with ground based observations networks. For NHSs, more than
half of the responding NHSs do not use satellite based remote sensing for droughts, and also more than
half not for flood monitoring. More in-country expertise is needed on remote sensing for hydrological
applications.
14 STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
Table 5: Key characteristics of observations and monitoring for NMSs and NHSs in SADC Member States
NMS NHS
River Reservoir
Self-assessed gauging gauging
qualification Self-assessed Gauging Gauging stations stations on stations on
of Weather Rainfall qualification stations in in reservoirs/ telemetry telemetry
Observations and observation stations stations Use of of observation rivers lakes system system How often are rating
Monitoring network (number) (number) radar network (number) (number) (%) (%) curves updated?
Angola Essential 10-50 10-50 No Unanswered 10-50 1-10 1-10% 1-10% 1-5 years
Botswana Full 10-50 > 200 No Essential 10-50 10-50 1-10% 0% Once per year
Comoros Essential 1-10 10-50 No Unanswered None None None None None
0/
DRC Unanswered 10-50 No Unanswered 10 > 200 by RVF Unknown Unknown Unknown
Unknown
Eswatini Essential 10-50 10-50 No Unanswered 10-50 1-10 10-30% 1-10%
Lesotho Essential 50-200 10-50 No Essential 10-50 0 10-30% 1-10% After every major flood
Madagascar Essential 10-50 1-10 No Unanswered 10-50 10-50 0% 0%
Malawi Full 50-200 50-200 No Essential 50-200 1-10 1-10% 0% 5-10 years
Mauritius Full 10-50 50-200 Yes Basic 10-50 1-10 1-10% 1-10%
Mozambique Essential 50-200 0 No Essential 50-200 10-50 1-10% 1-10% 1-5 years
Namibia Essential 10-50 50-200 No Essential > 200 0 10-30% 0%
Seychelles Essential 10-50 10-50 No Unanswered
1-5 years planned, but
South Africa Full 50-200 > 200 Yes Essential > 200 > 200 30-50% 30-50%
often less frequent
Once per year and after
Tanzania Essential 50-200 50-200 Yes Essential > 200 1-10 1-10% 0%
every major flood
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
Zambia Essential 50-200 50-200 No Basic 50-200 50-200 10-30% 10-30% 1-5 years
Zimbabwe Essential 50-200 50-200 No Basic > 200 50-200 1-10% 1-10% After every major flood
Note: Number of stations are range of stations that currently operational stations managed by the organization itself.
15
IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
2 • STATUS OF HYDROMET SERVICES
2 • STATUS OF HYDROMET SERVICES
IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
2.2.3 Data processing, analysis and modeling
Digitization
Almost all SADC NMHSs have a database management system for some form of basic data processing,
although some rely on spreadsheets. License fees and affordability are a challenge for commercial
software. At the same time, many countries have archives of historical data which are only available on
paper. Digitization of archived data is therefore important.
Transmission of data to WMO’s Global Telecommunication System
NMSs transmit minimal meteorological data to WMO’s Global Telecommunication System (GTS). Eight
countries transmit less than 50 percent, and Lesotho, Eswatini and Mauritius transmit less than 20
percent. Low transmission rates are caused by outdated software, but poor internet connectivity
and interrupted power supply also play a role. Increasing data transmission to WMO’s GTS improves
initialization and verification (or calibration) of numerical weather prediction and possibly even
hydrological models.
Modeling and forecasting capacity
The regional NMSs use forecasting outputs from global production centers, and 10 of the 16 NMSs have
a Limited Area Model (LAM). License fees, human capacity and IT infrastructure, however, limit the
use of the global production center services. All NMSs, except Zambia, use probabilistic forecasts from
ensemble prediction systems of regional or global centers, such as European Center for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Botswana,
Mozambique and Zambia use their own Water Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a LAM, while
the SADC CSC also uses a WRF model. Dynamic or statistical downscaling could be an alternative for
using a LAM.
Only eight regional NMSs provide quantitative precipitation forecasts, which are important for
hydrological forecasts. Most NHSs focus on monitoring and observations to generate forecasts and
have very limited modeling and forecasting capacity. Six NHSs do not conduct hydrological modeling,
while 13 NHSs do not use any hydraulic models. Most available models are used for water resources
assessments, either as an input for water-use licensing or for assessing the feasibility of infrastructure.
Of these models and information services, many are not maintained on a continuous basis to provide
input to operational decisions, such as early warning. In practice, NHSs have challenges in obtaining
data and forecasts from their NMSs. Table 6 shows the key characteristics of data processing, analysis
and modeling for NMSs and NHSs, respectively.
Eight NHSs use Hydstra to manage their hydrological data since this was introduced in a SADC investment
programme; four use simple spreadsheets or different programs; and four did not provide information.
Eight NHSs do provide some services based on hydrological models, such as rainfall-runoff modeling for
strategic decision-making. Only the NHSs of Mozambique, Namibia and South Africa provide services
based on hydraulic modeling, as related to flood routing in certain river basins in their country.
16 STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
Table 6: Key characteristics of data processing, analysis and modeling for NMSs in SADC member states
Upload to WMO
Self-rated skill of forecasts per forecasting window
Quantitative system, % of
What data storage system precipitation Ensemble stations 1–5 5 – 10 Seasonal Verification
NMS is used LAM forecasts forecasts < 1 days days days > 10 days prediction capacity
Angola Not answered Yes Yes Yes 70-90% Medium High High Medium Low Yes
Botswana Not answered Yes No Yes - High Medium Low Low Medium Yes
Comoros Excel and paper No Yes Yes < 20% Medium Medium Low Low Medium No
DRC Not answered No Yes - Medium Low Low Low Medium No
Eswatini METCAP, excel and paper No Yes Yes < 20% High Medium Low Low Medium Yes
Lesotho CLIMSOFT and paper No No Yes - High Medium Low Low High No
Madagascar Not answered Yes Yes Yes 70-90% High Medium Low Low Medium Yes
Malawi CLIMSOFT Yes No Yes 50-70% Medium Medium Medium Low Low No
Mauritius Excel No No Yes - High Medium Low Low Medium No
Mozambique Not answered No Yes Yes 20-50% High Medium Low Low Medium No
Namibia Unspecified and paper Yes Yes Yes 20-50% High Medium Low Low Low Yes
Seychelles CLIMSOFT Yes No Yes 50-70% High Medium Medium Medium Medium No
South Africa Unspecified Yes Yes Yes > 90% High High Medium Low Medium Yes
Tanzania CLIDATA Yes No Yes 20-50% High High Medium Medium Medium Yes
Zambia CLIMSOFT and CLICOM Yes Yes No 20-50% High Medium Low Low Medium Yes
Qualitative
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
Zimbabwe CLIMSOFT Yes No Yes 70-90% High High Medium Low Medium
only
17
IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
2 • STATUS OF HYDROMET SERVICES
2 • STATUS OF HYDROMET SERVICES
IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
2.2.4 Services including early warning
NMHSs provide hydromet services to various sectors and the general public, but very few have staff
dedicated to engaging with sectors or end-users. Impact-based forecasting is a known concept for most
NMHSs although countries interpret it differently. Countries use different methods for impact-based
forecasting and there is scant discussion among DRMs, NMSs and NHSs to develop it. In addition,
income streams from service provision are either limited or result mainly from meteorological services
for the aviation sector. Services to the aviation and agriculture sectors are common for the NMSs, but
the services for the agricultural sector are relatively basic despite it being an important sector for
all SADC member states. Many NMSs identified the insurance, energy, agriculture, aviation and water
management sectors as feasible for public-private engagements (PPE). NHSs often provide water
availability services as a minimum to water managers (11), agriculture (10), energy sector (10), mining
(8) and industry (7). Flood early warnings are mostly qualitative and based on observations. Although
five NHSs claim to flood forecast for some river basins, this is only confirmed for three NHSs (Shire
Basin in Malawi; Zambezi Basin in Mozambique; Orange-Senqu Basin in South Africa). Table 7 shows
the hazards for which each NMHS provides early warning.
Table 7: SADC National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for early warning by hazard type
Flash/Fluvial flood
Tropical cyclones
Meteorological
Extreme Wind
Hydro-logical
Extreme Rain
Coastal flood
Storm surge
Fire hazard
River flood
drought
drought
Frost
Heat
Hail
NMS & NHS
Angola x x -- x x -- x x -- x x -- --
Botswana x -- -- x -- x x x x x x x --
Comoros x -- -- -- -- x x -- -- -- -- x
DRC x x -- x -- -- x -- -- -- -- -- --
Eswatini x x -- x x x x x x x x x --
Lesotho x x -- x x x x x x -- x x --
Madagascar x -- -- x -- x x x x x x x x
Malawi x x -- x -- x x x x -- x x --
Mauritius x x -- x x x x -- -- -- x -- x
Mozambique x x -- x x x x x x x x -- --
Namibia x x -- x x x x -- x -- x x --
Seychelles x x -- x -- x x -- -- -- x -- --
South Africa x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Tanzania x -- -- x -- x x -- -- -- x -- --
Zambia x x -- x -- x x -- -- -- x x --
Zimbabwe x x -- x x x x x x x x x --
TOTAL 16 12 1 15 8 14 16 9 9 7 14 9 4
18 STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
2 • STATUS OF HYDROMET SERVICES
IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
2.3 Status of regional services and organizations
All NMHSs in Southern Africa use information from regional centers, river basin organizations or national
organizations that have a WMO designated regional role. These organizations support the NMHSs with
operational hydromet services and/or with capacity building (table 8 and table 9).
Table 8: Overview of main SADC river basin organizations (RBOs) approached for this study
RBOs Full name SADC member states
Commission Internationale du Bassin Congo- Angola and DRC sharing with non-SADC
CICOS*
Oubangui-Sangha member states
LIMCOM Limpopo River Basin Commission Botswana, Mozambique and Zimbabwe
OKACOM Okavango River Basin Commission Angola, Botswana and Namibia
ORASECOM Orange-Senqu River Basin Commission Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and South Africa
Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique,
ZAMCOM Zambezi River Basin Commission
Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe
Note: * CICOS did not participate in the SADC stocktaking as separately stocktaking of hydromet services was done for the
Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS).
Table 9: Overview of SADC regional providers of hydromet services*
Designated role / organization Designation Host organization
Implementing agent for improved hydromet services
in SADC. Climate services for all SADC member states.
SADC CSC SADC Secretariat
Facilitator of Southern African Regional Climate
Outlook Forum (SARCOF)
ICPAC (IGAD Climate
CSC for Eastern Africa, including SADC Member State
Prediction and Applications IGAD
Tanzania
Center)*
For long-range forecasts, coupled ocean-atmosphere
WMO Global Production
global seasonal prediction model, can be consulted by SAWS
Centers (GPCs)
whole globe. .
For severe weather forecasts: serves as custodian of
the Southern African Regional Flash Flood Guidance
SAWS
WMO Regional Specialized System (SARFFGS) for 9 countries and the Southern
Meteorological Center Africa Severe Weather Forecasting Project
(RSMC) Tropical Cyclone Center,
For support on tropical cyclones La Réunion Météo
France
WMO Regional SAWS; formerly also
Telecommunications Hub For collection, distribution and real-time exchange of Zambia Meteorological
(RTH) & WMO Global meteorological data between WMO members or NMSs Department (ZMD) also
Information System Center within the continent and in the other five continents served as RTH but now
(GISC) is inactive
WMO Regional Training
For training and education, with additional
Center (RTC), including SAWS
specialization in Satellite Meteorology (with VLab)
Virtual Laboratory (VLab)
WMO Integrated Global For improvement and evolution of WMO global SAWS
Observing System Center observing systems
(WIGOS)
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 19
2 • STATUS OF HYDROMET SERVICES
IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
Designated role / organization Designation Host organization
WMO RTCs for Lusophone For training and education for lusophone countries National Institute
countries for Meteorology and
Geophysics (Angola)
(INAMET)
WMO RTCs for Francophone For training and education for francophone countries Ecole Nationale
countries d’Enseignement de
l’Aéronautique et de la
Météorologie (ENEAM)
& Ecole Supérieure
Polytechnique
d’Antananarivo (ESPA)
(Madagascar)*
WMO Regional Radiation For international calibration of meteorological National Agency of
Center radiation standards within the global network and for Meteorology and
maintaining the standard instruments for this purpose Teledetection by
Satellite (METTELSAT)
(DRC NMS)
Hydromet services for For facilitation of Southwest Indian Ocean Climate Indian Ocean
Southwest Indian Ocean Forum and as initiator and implementing agent for Commission (IOC)
projects that benefit hydromet services in the SADC
island states
WMO Regional For maintaining relevant calibration standards and Botswana Department
Instrumentation Center assisting members in calibrating their national of Meteorological
(Inactive) meteorological and related environmental standards Services*
and monitoring instruments
Note: * Organizations that were not interviewed for their regional role.
SADC CSC assists the region’s NMHSs both operationally and strategically. Twice a day it runs the WRF
model to create forecasts and it performs remote-sensing assessments. SADC CSC facilitates the seasonal
forecast discussions in South African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF), provides advisories
to NMS directors on extreme weather systems that geographically cover at least two countries and
manages the regional NMHS investment programs. It is in the process of becoming a fully designated
WMO Climate Services Center and is extending its capacity to provide broader services. For 11 East
African countries, ICPAC is the WMO-accredited climate center. Within the SADC region, only Tanzania
benefits from the services of ICPAC. The Indian Ocean Commission (IOC) supports regional forecasting
and monitoring actions as a coordinator for the Southwest Indian Ocean countries.
Within the SADC region, the following institutions have received official designations by WMO:
● As the WMO RSMC for Severe Weather Forecasts, RSMC Pretoria (that is, SAWS) provides severe
weather guidance to SADC countries as part of the WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Project. This
information is based on global and in-house models and the responsibility is formally included in
the National Forecasting Centre workflow. The information is accessible through a dedicated website
and the intention is to provide countries in the region with a heads-up of weather events in the short
and medium forecasting timescales. Flash flood early warning guidance, using the Southern Afri-
ca Regional Flash Flood Guidance System (SARFFGS) is provided to nine SADC member states, but
not yet to Angola, DRC, Tanzania, Madagascar or the island states. As this system is not mature nor
20 STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
2 • STATUS OF HYDROMET SERVICES
IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
well-established, RSMC Pretoria would like to extend the SARFFGS and resuscitate the annual training
sessions. The RSMC La Réunion for Tropical Cyclone Forecasts provides guidance information about all
tropical low systems for 13 SADC member states. The center’s mandate is to track systems in the Indian
Ocean, but the center also aims to continue tracking the system after landfall. Close coordination with
the RSMC at SAWS is therefore key in that regard. The RSMC in La Réunion is part of Météo France
and uses Global Circulation Models for seasonal forecasts as well as the Météo France LAM for more
short-term forecasts.
● As a WMO Global Producing Centre for Long-Range Forecasts, one of twelve such centers in the world,
SAWS uses its own global numerical model, which involves coupling of both the atmosphere and ocean
components to form a fully interactive coupled modelling system, named the SAWS Coupled Model
(SCM), and it combines its output to that of the GFDL-SPEAR and COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4 systems (part of
the North American Multi-Model Ensemble System) to provide multi-model ensemble forecasts. SAWS
makes these seasonal forecasts available through its website, among others, in the form of a “Seasonal
Climate Watch”. It is unknown to what extent these forecasts are currently being used in the region but
these forecasts are provided as input the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum.
● The WMO-RTH and WMO-GISC can support the NMSs to increase data transmission of data to the
WMO’s GTS, but this is currently only happening to a limited extent. As mentioned, improving the
transmission is essential for better initialization and calibration of regional and global numerical
weather prediction models. Both WMO-RTH and WMO-GISC roles are fulfilled by SAWS. The Zambian
Meteorological Department also functioned as an RTH but is currently inactive.
● WMO-WIGOS was launched in February 2021 and can become instrumental in combining NMS’ data
with data from other sources. It aims to collect metadata of different data sources than the NMSs have
which are relevant for climate (change) monitoring. This is another WMO role of SAWS.
● From the WMO regional training center (RTC) in Pretoria there is much training in English, for almost
all skills needed with specific recognition by WMO and for the remote-sensing skills. Also, a number of
NMHSs staff have been trained in RTCs in other parts of Africa, and/or in another continent. The NMS
of Angola National Institute for Meteorology and Geophysics (INAMET) is also designated as WMO RTC
for lusophone countries but is currently not operational. Then there are additionally for francophone
countries two institutions in Madagascar that function as an RTC but their status of operation was not
confirmed during the study.
● The NMS of Botswana is a designated WMO Regional Instrumentation Center but is not operational. The
NMS indicates it would like to resuscitate the role, likely with funding from the Botswana government.
● The WMO Regional Radiation Center is in the DRC, but it has not been confirmed if it is operational.
Currently, RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion and SADC CSC all play a role in providing Member States
with short-term weather warnings. RSMC Pretoria provides short-term extreme weather forecasts and
flash flood guidance; RSMC La Réunion focuses on the tropical low systems above the sea; and SADC
CSC provides advisories based on their WRF modeling. SADC is convening harmonization meetings with
Directors of NMHSs and WMO Regional Institutions, but further harmonization needs to be initiated and
the mandates between these three organizations need to be clarified. There may be some duplication of
tasks that is not cost effective and which will not inform wise future investment decisions, but also there
is a risk that several uncoordinated sources of similar information may not be in the interest of society.
However, such harmonization needs further discussion, as there are also schools of thought that see the
roles differently and see the benefit of having different source of information.
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 21
2 • STATUS OF HYDROMET SERVICES
IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
Most organizations with a regional role depend on cost recovery for regional services, either by WMO,
Member States and/or project funding. This makes such services very vulnerable to the end of such
funding sources.
Overview and Status of river basin organizations
RBOs provide limited operational services. Most of the RBO services pertain to water resources planning
and monitoring and to facilitating the data sharing between member states, while there are currently
limited operational services. The ZAMCOM has a data exchange system (Zambezi Water Resources
Information Systems (ZAMWIS)) but the data is not up to date. It also has an operational model for flow
forecasts at key locations. The ORASECOM set up a water information system to enable data exchange.
ZAMCOM, OKACOM, and ORASECOM are ahead of LIMCOM in terms of services and institutional set up.
Similar database management systems have been introduced in SADC to enhance data sharing within
the river basins.
Most RBOs have the ambition to develop hydrological forecasting systems to inform operational
decisions. However, the resource constraints of most Member States mean the RBOs depend on grants.
A hybrid system combining the efforts of RBOs and NHSs could be more cost efficient, as most NHSs
still have to set up modeling capacity. RBOs view that certain Member States, rather than themselves,
are better situated to provide certain functions given they are more advanced and have the capacity for
maintaining systems.
2.4 Status of private sector engagement and collaboration with universities
Private sector engagement was explored by analyzing survey results and studying the policies and
regulatory frameworks of different SADC countries. Additionally, three case studies of potential
PPE were explored by facilitating workshops between the private sector and NMSs on crop-specific
advice (Madagascar), weather-index-based crop insurance (Malawi) and lightning-detection services
(Eswatini).
Among NMHSs, the perceptions of existing relationships with the private sector vary. About 45 percent
of the respondents see the relationship as effective or see themselves as a major player. Most NMSs
are very positive about the feasibility of setting up PPEs with many segments of the private sector but
there is a lack of a unified approach to engage into these relationships that will result in mutual benefits
while at the same time favors the outcomes to society. The limited survey results of NHSs precludes
generalizations. For NMHSs alike, there is limited co-development of services with the private sector.
As for data policies, NMSs in several SADC countries have provisions in the respective meteorological
and water acts that articulate charging for data and services, or not. In several countries, the charges
must be published in the government gazette or require ministerial approval. For NHSs, the water acts
consulted do not stipulate if fees can be charged for information or stipulate of fees can be charged for
water use. These water use charges, however, are not solely dedicated to cost-recovery for hydrological
services. Charging for data and services can of course provide financial income for the organizations
selling the data, but can also limit the full value of this data on a national and regional level, if charges
are so high that they limit the use of the data.
Many SADC countries have public-private partnership acts or policies covering private sector
investments in infrastructure. The acts seem to be written for large water management and transport
infrastructure, but the procedures described may also be relevant for instances when the private sector
invests in monitoring or IT infrastructure.
22 STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
2 • STATUS OF HYDROMET SERVICES
IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
Apart from opportunities, NMHSs identified challenges in terms of mandates, infrastructure handover,
procurement, profit sharing, and regulatory frameworks. The correlation between policy and regulatory
framework and the current public-private engagement on the ground was not clear.
The case studies indicate that most NMSs had plans for PPEs but had not yet acted on them. The case
studies bear this out: NMSs have limited experience in engaging on potential business models and client-
centric service development. During the workshops, the private sector parties identified needs that NMSs
appeared to be able to readily fulfil but was not yet aware of.
2.5 Status of collaboration with universities
More than 40 universities are working on topics related to weather, climate, water and disaster risk
reduction. Most NMHSs already have existing relationships with universities, mainly in their own countries,
for research and development support and as alma maters of their employees. These relationships are in
general ‘occasionally beneficial’ - with a lack of communication being the main reason why challenges are
yet to be solved, rather than a lack of capacity at the universities. There is a large dispersion of expertise
in the region and only small research units exist at those universities. This makes it more difficult to
engage in stimulating a cooperative building of capacity and research profile.
Academic networks exist and have been in place for years. However, these networks do not cover all
SADC countries and hydromet services are only part of their scope:
● Partners Enhancing Resilience for People Exposed to Risks (PeriPeriU) mainly focuses on disaster risk
management and only touches on hydromet services.
● AUDA-NEPAD SANWATCE focuses on research for water, in general.
● Applied Center for Climate and Earth System Science (ACCESS) is a South African consortium that
focuses on earth system sciences.
● WaterNet targets has an official mandate by the SADC to build capacity in integrated water manage-
ment and is truly regional with many collaborating academic institutions. Within WaterNet, a hydro-
logical program is in place, for which the University of Dar es Salaam coordinates expert inputs from
various Southern African universities.
NMHSs, universities and research institutions have different cost-recovery models, inhibiting
opportunities for collaboration. To improve research and development for NMHS with the support of
universities, one must be aware that many academics focus on teaching rather than on research.
In the networks and in the region, as well as in cooperation with overseas universities and research
funds, the South African universities are relatively well represented. It is recommended to also involve
other SADC universities in networks for research and capacity building. These universities need support,
given their limited staff and financial capacities.
For NHSs, apart from training at the academic level, there is a clear additional need for vocational
training, which is not being addressed by the universities. For meteorology, the Regional Training Centers
offer vocational training. For NMSs to grow capacity in numerical weather prediction, it is recommended
to further build existing collaboration between NMSs and academic institutes around the SADC Cyber-
Infrastructure Framework.
Initiatives such as internships, bursary programs, research chairs funded by the NMHSs, involvement of
NMHSs staff in lecturing or co-supervision of students are not common in the region. More pilots in this
regard are recommended as there are positive experiences with these types of interventions.
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 23
Photos: 24,
January 2021—Cyclone
South Elosie
African Weather hits Limpopo, South Africa.
Service
24
STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
3 • GUIDANCE FOR STRENGTHENING
HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES
T
he analysis in the previous chapters highlighted the strategic importance of hydromet and early
warning services for Southern Africa. The current service levels of the region’s NMHSs leave for
most countries substantial gaps to respond to the growing demand of adequate services based on
sound observations. At the global level, the WMO has launched the Systematic Observations Financing
Facility (SOFF) to support countries in generating and exchanging basic observational data based on
the Global Basic Observing Network (WMO 2020). In line with these global initiatives, guidance is
herewith provided for strengthening hydromet and early warning services in Southern Africa in a
programmatic approach. This chapter highlights the programmatic approach for modernizing hydromet
services in Southern Africa, defines objectives, outcomes and output and makes recommendations for
its implementations.
3.1 Proposed Objectives and Outcomes
The report formulates a comprehensive program addressing the modernization of hydromet services in
Southern Africa, ensuring programmatic support along the entire hydromet value chain from observations
to improving early warning services and reaching communities. Experience from previous programs
and projects shows that hydromet projects should address the entire hydromet value chain, be sizable
enough to have a transformative and sustainable impact and support the necessary institutional reforms.
Acknowledging the complexity of large projects and programs, the diversity of the SADC member states
in terms of modernization needs and recognizing different opportunities for financing of hydromet
services (from the perspective of governments, hydromet services, donors and the private sector), a
commonly agreed set of objectives and outcomes, a common framework for monitoring and evaluation
and a coherent approach and strategy on policies and regional collaboration have been formulated.
The goal of the proposed action plan is “to have NMHSs within the SADC region that are capable to (better)
provide impact-based early warning services on climate, weather and water hazards.”
The vision is that by 2030 (and, where possible already by 2025) in all SADC member states essential
early warning services can be provided and that service levels have improved with this regard. Regional
Centers have sustained and modernized their operation, providing adequate services to the countries,
communities and businesses in Southern Africa, and support member states in a cascading approach.
Based on the analysis in the stocktaking report, four outcomes were identified to achieve this goal. The
different outcomes and related intermediate actions and results/outputs are (figure 6):
A. Stronger institutional capacity of and collaboration between NMHSs and regional organizations
B. Observations and monitoring networks in the region are better equipped to support early warning
services
C. Improved lead time and accuracy of the hydromet forecast with emphasis on the key locations
D. Improved generation and dissemination of impact-based early warnings for specific user groups
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 25
26
Figure 6: Goal, outcomes and outputs of investment framework to modernize hydromet services in the SADC region
NMHSs are capable to (better) provide
impact-based early warning services on
climate, weather, and water hazards
A. Stronger institutional B. Observations and monitoring C. Improved lead time and D. Improved generation and
capacity of and collaboration networks in the region are accuracy of the hydromet dissemination of imapct-based
AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES
between NMHS and regional better equipped to support early forecast with emphasis at the early warnings for specific user
organizations warning services key locations for early warning groups
1. Cooperations and coordination 1. Calibrate, rehabilitate, upgrade, and 1. Establishment of upload routine to 1. Improved and effective impact-based
between institutions with a regional role automate existing monitoring stations WMO GTS to improve initialization and early warnings (interplay between NMS/
calibration/verification of (international) NHS/DRM/end-users)
3 • GUIDANCE FOR STRENGTHENING HYDROMET
Numerical Weather Prediction models
2. Capacitation of institutions with a 2. Optimize design of multi-tiered
regional role hydromet monitoring networks
2. Streamline meteorological 2. Effective and resilient warning
forecasting/warning routines using dissemination systems (communication
3. Financing of training and educational Global and Regional Models and satellite hardware)
programmes to sustain qualified staff 3. Extension of (multi-tiered) remote sensing products (data access,
and develop more attractive positions observation networks (focus on stations software platforms training)
for people already employed at the important for EWS)
NMHSs 3. Establishment of Common Alerting
Protocol (countrywide)
3. Development and systematic use
4. Strengthen operation and of free or affordable data, forecasting
4. Strengthening of mandates, strategic
maintenance of monitoring stations models and web services (models
goals and implementing capacity to be
more service-oriented development, training)
4. Improved understanding of the
hazards, exposure and vulnerability, to
know how impact-based early warning
5. Investments in resilient infrastructure can effectively inform mitigating
4. Capacity in NHSs to perform (or at
for power supply and internet of the emergency management measures
least interpret) river modeling, analysis
NMHSs and up-to-date, sustainable and forecasting systems)
IT-solutions
5. Improved dissemination of agro-
6. Considering the roles of all meteorological services
stakeholders in the hydromet value
chain, including other public bodies (e.g.
healthcare, infrastructure), the private = Goal 6. Improved means to provide flash
sector and academia flood early warnings to the general
= Outcome public in major cities
= Output
STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
3 • GUIDANCE FOR STRENGTHENING HYDROMET
AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES
3.1.1 Outcome A: Stronger institutional capacity of and collaboration between NMHSs and
regional organizations
All NMSs and NHSs in the region have capacity challenges and are relatively small organizations in
relation to the enormous tasks they need to fulfil. The WMO recommends a cascading process in which
global and regional organizations support NMHSs, but also bilateral cooperation could assist in obtaining
‘economies of scale’ advantages.
In this outcome, strengthening regional collaboration would start with harmonizing the activities of
the regional organizations, notably SADC CSC, RSMC La Réunion and RSMC Pretoria. Activities should
lead to a harmonization of early warning messages, updating relevant protocols and harmonizing of
activities. In addition to improved coordination, SADC CSC, RSMCs and RTC and NMSs that have other
WMO designated roles need further support to implement their genuine activities and mandates. Those
activities include, for example, improving and rolling out to additional countries of the flash flood guidance
through RSMC Pretoria, training through RTC Pretoria RTC Angola and RTC Madagascar, assistance to
NMSs with uploading of weather information to GTS by the GISC and RTH, and calibration of instruments
by new or to be resuscitated calibration centres. Also, RBOs need to step up their role to support basin-
wide collaboration on flood modelling, forecasting and information dissemination. Stimulating regional
collaboration is an underlying but important reason to support the SARCOF process, pre- and post-season
meetings within river basins and joint education.
At the national level, NMHSs need support to strengthen their respective management structures. The
NMHSs will need to identify what changes in the mandates and in the organization are needed to become
more service oriented. In terms of infrastructure, NMHSs most importantly will need adequate support
to ensure power supply, internet access and back-up IT capacity.
To facilitate collaboration with academia, universities, and the private sector, the action plan proposes
regional funds to support capacity building, academic exchanges, and public-private collaboration. For
example, a regional program like a regional bursary program, as was once applied for the water sector,
could facilitate innovation by promoting private and academic sector collaboration with NMHSs and
promote collaboration among partners in the region.
3.1.2 Outcome B. Observations and monitoring networks in the region are better
equipped to support early warning services
Strengthening the observation network and closing critical observation gaps remains an important
outcome of any hydromet modernization effort in the region. Before investing in new stations, priority
should be given to the calibration, resuscitation, and automation of meteorological, climatological and
hydrological observation stations as a large portion of observation stations is not operational and/or not
recently calibrated despite the importance of these stations for any early warning system (EWS) and other
hydromet services. In particular, river gauging stations need updated rating curves. The current network
densities are not sufficient to effectively monitor the most relevant weather and climate phenomena.
Before additional stations are added to the observation network, it will be important to consider the
additional costs for operating and maintaining the observation network. Operation and maintenance
issues are common across all NMHSs and are often driven by a lack of staff, customized and missing
spare parts of equipment, lack of resources for field and frequent maintenance visits. It will therefore
be important to find a balanced approach between investments in additional observation stations (or
reinstalled stations) and the costs for operation and maintenance of the observation network. Actions for
maintaining current networks are therefore also included. Priority would be given to enable countries
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 27
3 • GUIDANCE FOR STRENGTHENING HYDROMET
AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES
to comply with the Global Basic Observation Network (GBON) requirements, whereas reaching WMO
standards for NMSs may still take some time. As part of the observation network, countries may need
to establish or extend their upper-air observation network and introduce a lighting detection network
and make maximum use from the satellite data and products available through for example EUMETSAT.
3.1.3 Outcome C. Improved lead time and accuracy of the hydromet forecast with
emphasis on the key locations for Early Warning
In this outcome, significant emphasis is placed on improving processes for the NMSs to transmit
meteorological data globally through the WMO GTS, which is important for the initialization and
verification of forecasting models, and on improving reception and interpretation of model forecasts from
global and regional models. Furthermore, actions are included to assist in training and provision of data
management and modeling solutions that are affordable to maintain for NMHSs. Most NHSs hardly make
use of modelling for early warning purposes both for floods (hydrological and hydraulic) and droughts
(hydrological), therefore special actions are included to strengthen them. NMHSs should be assisted to
in the first place make optimal use of existing model output available and then to set up and implement
hydrological and hydraulic models through different means, such as on-the-job training, establishing
models with the support of consultants, and peer learning where required. The action plan also has
training in interpretation and use of what is available from regional and global centres. It will also be
important to strengthen the link between flash flood guidance and early warning at the regional level
3.1.4 Outcome D. Improved generation and dissemination of impact-based early
warnings for communities
This outcome aims to reach end-users with timely, impact-based early warnings. Warnings for extreme
weather are issued directly from the NMHSs to specific user groups. However, other warnings should be
disseminated through DRM organizations and their networks in the country. This investment addresses
the warnings as provided by the NMHSs to the user groups and to the DRM. Realistic and useful ways of
impact-based forecasting need a thorough consultative process within the countries, as they depend on
the hazards, the capacities of NMHSs and DRM organizations and the capacities of the targeted users
to receive and interpret warnings and act on them. Actions are included to support such a process,
engaging with the DRM organizations and representatives of the end-users of the early warnings. The
infrastructure means of communication between NMS, NHS and DRM during disasters and Common
Alerting Protocols are also strengthened. The outcome further addresses better organization of spatial
information on hazards, exposure, and vulnerability in such a way that it can inform strategic, tactical
and operational decisions before and during the occurrence of the hazards. This information will inform
many earlier mentioned outputs. For farmers, regional development of warnings dissemination tools
and national roll outs of such warning tools is included. This will contribute to optimization of farming
and mitigate some of the impacts of mainly droughts but also other weather hazards. Although the
SARFFGS is improved in Outcome A, additional budgets are reserved to develop more advanced flash
flood guidance systems for metropolitan areas. Such advanced systems require an advanced level of
hydromet services and are therefore given low priority for those NMHSs that are not yet at this level.
3.2 Estimating needs for strengthening hydromet and early warning services
The needs for strengthening weather, water, climate, and early warning services in Southern Africa
are substantial. This estimation of needs and related costs focuses on those activities, which can be
implemented in the next 5 to 10 years and supports actions that would strengthen the existing institutions
28 STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
3 • GUIDANCE FOR STRENGTHENING HYDROMET
AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES
within their mandate. Only those activities and actions that would directly lead to strengthened early
warning and impact-based forecasting and thus not the other relevant priorities of the NMHSs have
been considered. All actions would, to the extent possible, be supported by regional actors, institutions,
private-sector actors, and universities to strengthen further regional linkages and support the existing
institutions in the region with this regard. The estimation of costs is based on general unit costs, needs
expressed by the NMHSs, existing infrastructure, country size, relevance of hazards, expert judgement
and the maturity level of the NMHSs (see table 4). Where suitable, priority would be given for low-cost
technology (for example, in the observation network) and license free or affordable software applications.
Only very limited costs are included with regard to building, vehicles and related issues. Operational and
maintenance costs are included, apart from staff costs that have been expressed in numbers of staff
rather than in costs of salaries.
To strengthen hydromet services for effective early warning, it is estimated that approximately US$ 116
million at current price levels would be needed for all actions to be implemented over the next ten
years, excluding the budget for operational and maintenance costs. This cost estimate may increase
once other issues that NMHS would require to improve are included in the calculation. This already
requires large commitments from the Member States and other partners. Table 10 provides a general
overview of costs by proposed outcome. It is estimated that the costs would vary between US$ 3 million
and US$ 12 million between Member States depending on their specific needs. About US$ 8.3 million or
about 7 percent would be needed for regional actions. This would, for example, also include resources
for regional actions, such as a regional scholarship or bursary program. A detailed country assessment
would need to follow to draft a detailed country level investment plan, to review the assumptions made
for allocation of certain actions to certain NMHSs or organizations with a regional role. The 10 years of
operations and maintenance, includes additional training . This period of 10 years for the operational
costs was chosen because a longer period would have large technology developments and changing
needs of countries, which cannot yet be forecasted. Deliberately, country level needs are not highlighted
in this summary report due to the high uncertainty of the estimations.
Table 10: SADC region hydromet investment costs per outcome
Gross Capital Investments and Actions
(in US$ million)
Outcome Works Goods Consultancies Training Total
Outcome A 0 0.5 3.0 6.7 10.2
Outcome B 4.9 25.2 8.1 8.6 46.8
Outcome C 0 3.8 9.7 18.7 32.2
Outcome D 2.6 2.6 20.4 1.6 27.1
Total 7.5 32.1 41.2 35.6 116.3
Hydromet services are an important public good function and, in most countries, supported by
the government or through public-private partnerships. The proposed investments and actions for
strengthening hydromet and early warning services require sufficient operation, maintenance, and
personnel. In addition, many of the existing staff in the National Hydromet Services are close to retirement
in the coming years, leaving a substantial gap of expertise in some of the countries. It is estimated that
to sustain and operate the proposed investments and actions about 277 staff would be required, which
would need to be ascertained if it is already available. In some countries it is well possible that some
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 29
3 • GUIDANCE FOR STRENGTHENING HYDROMET
AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES
of the current staff cannot fulfil certain tasks due to lack of investments or operational budget. By
making clear per action which staff is needed to make the operation and maintenance sustainable,
the expectation of investments of Member States is clearer. While financial and technical partners can
support, to some extent, the training of forecasters, hydrologists and early warning specialists, the
annual salaries would need to be taken up by the respective NMHSs and thus governments. Due to the
large differences in salaries and different arrangements in the NMHS about recruiting and involving
staff a country specific estimation of the staffing was not conducted. Back of the envelope estimations
of staffing expenses over a period of 10 years would add up to US$ 90 million. Collaboration with the
private sector or public-private collaboration as well as with universities and research institutes may
present an opportunity to attract and sustain talent in the national hydromet community.
The annual operation and maintenance budget in Table 11 is here estimated at about 8 percent of the
investment costs for the hydromet observation, vehicles and ICT equipment.
Table 11: SADC region hydromet investment costs per outcome by cost categories
Operational costs
Operation and maintenance for Operation and maintenance for Additional staff
Outcome 1 year [US$ 1000] 10 year [US$ 1000] [number of staff*]
Outcome A 607 6,065 18
Outcome B 3,254 32,542 60
Outcome C 1,932 19,320 154
Outcome D 3,150 31,500 45
Total 8,943 89,427 277
Note: Cost per outcome = x $1,000 per year. * FTE, Full time employee (equivalent)
At country level estimates of investments and actions range between US$ 3 million (for example for
Comoros and Seychelles) and US$ 12.0 millions (for Tanzania) depending on the needs of the member
states. While estimations were made at country level and then aggregated, it was agreed to not present
country specific estimates due to the large number of country specific factors. It is furthermore important
to note that the cost estimations do not include country specific costs, like import duties for goods to
be imported or the possibility to source consultancy studies and support locally. Other costs such as the
costs for the construction of buildings for NMHS, vehicles and other expenses are neither considered.
As such the report the report provides an overview of the key issues to be financed.
30 STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
TITULO Y TITULO
The importance of hydromet and early warning services for the economy and livelihoods in Southern
Africa is highlighted at the beginning of the report. In this chapter, the economic benefits from
strengthening hydromet and early warning services are identified, with specific attention to the benefits
from strengthening early warning information and to a lesser extent benefits to sectors such as agriculture,
transport and energy production. The socio-economic benefit analysis aims to quantify the benefits from
strengthening and modernizing hydromet services by conducting simulations on the potential benefit
and estimating key financial indicators (such as, benefit-cost ratio and net present value). Figure 7
summarizes the proposed framework for the economic analysis, linked to the main affected sectors and
some specific impacts.
Since hydrometeorological products and services are public goods, they are generally not marketed
in markets. Therefore, there is usually no direct information on their economic value. For this reason,
to determine the economic benefits generated by projects to improve hydrometeorological systems, it
is necessary to use specific approaches, such as benchmarking, and results transfer methods. In this
analysis, the benefits derived for the different economic sectors have been estimated through benefits
transfer methods. The analysis follows the general structure of the “Triple Dividend of Resilience”
framework.5 This framework suggests considering the following three resilience dividends when
estimating the benefits of a project:
● First dividend: save lives and avoid damages and losses. That is, to what extent an improved system for
predicting extreme events and early warning reduces asset losses and prevents deaths.
● Second dividend: unlocking economic potential. Greater awareness of risks and better predictions
can increase economic productivity, support long-term investments in productive assets and develop
opportunities
● Third dividend: generate the development of co-benefits. Investing in hydrometeorology can serve
multiple purposes that go beyond reducing the impact of disasters. For example, improving the quality
and timeliness of predictions can produce co-benefits for a significant number of stakeholders, includ-
ing households.
5
Tanner et al. (2015).
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 31
4 • BENEFITS OF INVESTING IN HYDROMET
AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES
Figure 7: Triple Dividend Resilience Framework adapted to SEB analysis of the action plan6
SEB Type of
analysis Benefits Methods
First Dividend: Direct benefits derived from the
intervention, such as:
1st Avoided damages accounting Direct benefits
1. Infrastructure damages (EMDAT, PDNAs data) of action plan
Primary
2. Economic losses
benefits
Investment 3. Insurance compensation
on improved
hydromet Second Dividend: Impacts on development,
services (mod- such as: Productivity reponse
1st
ernization of functions (FAOSTAT, WB)
Primary 1. Productivity increase
Early Warning
benefits 2. Support long-term investments CGEM market impacts (GTAP
Systems)
3. Develop market opportunities database and model) Indirect
perdurable
WTP for hydromet services benefits
1st Third Dividend: Co-benefits (country level surveys)
Primary Adyacent effects on other sectors, such Stakeholder perceptions
benefits as household welfare, end-users relations (benchmarking meetings)
Actions Cost: improvement, etc.
Implementa-
tion budget,
O&M costs,
depretiation
4.1 Methodology for the socioeconomic analysis
Table 12 outlines the methods proposed to evaluate each of the aspects mentioned in the proposed potential
benefits to evaluate. A detailed description of the methods proposed can be found in Quiroga, 2018.7
Table 12: Methods and databases for the analysis of the quantitative benefits to improve hydromet
services in the SADC region
Potential benefits Indicators to analyse Proposed method Data
Analysis of frequency in the Avoided losses EMDAT,
countries, average losses per PDNAs
Flood losses
affected people and loss reduction
ratio due to improvements in DRM
Drought impacts on crop Cost-Loss model (improved drought EMDAT, FAO
Drought impacts
production early warnings)
Improved economic Change in production Impact functions (estimated FAO, World
productivity production response) Bank
(agriculture, energy)
Unblocked market Change in GDP Computable general equilibrium GTAP global
benefits model database
Change in WTP Transfer knowledge (similar Literature
Household welfare
regions) review
6
Source: Elaboration based on Tanner et al. (2015).
7
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/842621563163324249/Socioeconomic-Analysis-of-the-Poten-
tial-Benefits-of-Modernizing-Hydrometeorological-Services-in-the-Lao-People-s-Democratic-Republic.
32 STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
4 • BENEFITS OF INVESTING IN HYDROMET
AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES
The benefits of the proposed project have been estimated for each resilience dividend. The selection of
sector benefits is limited both by the availability of the data and by restrictions of confidence on the same.
Therefore, for this analysis, a “conservative”8 strategy has been taken, so that only the most obvious part of
the total benefits of the hydro-meteorological and climatic services have been considered. The total benefits
provided are estimated to be reasonably acceptable as a conservative figure compared to their true value.
In the analysis, the first dividend considers how predictions and improved early warning systems (EWS)
can reduce national losses, both in the face of drought hazards and floods, storms and extreme cold. The
second dividend includes how increased awareness of risks and a higher quality of predictions can increase
agricultural and energy productivity and the sector’s gross domestic product (GDP) through efficiency
gains and the impacts of drought and floods avoided (for example, by better understanding of the optimal
sowing or harvesting date or improved energy management). The third dividend includes co-benefits for
households through a study of Willingness to Pay (WTP) for improved EWS.
Different analysts, countries and agencies have different views on the correct discount rate to use for
the cost-benefit analysis. Zhuang et al. (2007) studied discount rates used for public projects around the
world and found rates from 2 to 15 percent, with lower rates more common in developed countries and
higher rates more common in developing countries. The World Bank provides discount rate guidance
in its Handbook on Economic Analysis of Investment Operations (Belli et al. 2001), noting that it has
traditionally applied discount rates in the 10 to 12 percent range. Other major multilateral development
banks also tend to use rates in this range (Zhuang et al. 2007). WMO (2015a) provides a more detailed
discussion of the choice of discount rates. In this analysis, a 12 percent rate of discount as an upper
bound and then conduct sensitivity analysis using a lower bound of 3 percent.
The benefits of any such project would presumably last much longer; therefore, a 25-year analysis period
was chosen to develop the aggregated estimates. With a higher discount rate (for example, 12 percent),
benefits more than a couple decades out have minimal present value. The maximum effectiveness rate
of the investments is not achieved in a linear trend, but a path of accumulating improvements has been
defined (up to 75 percent at the end of the period). Figure 8 shows the effective implementation rate used
in this study, based on a binomial cumulative function.
Figure 8: Effective implementation rate considered in this study
1.00
1.00
Potential benefits of improved
degree (binomial)
0.90
0.90 Potential benefits of improved
rate
hydromet services
hydromet services
0.80
0.80
Effective implementation rate
Efective implementation
0.70
0.70
Estimated
Estimated benefits
benefits of of
0.60
0.60
improved
improved hydromet
hydromet
0.50 services
0.50 services
0.40
Implementation
0.40
0.30
0.30
0.20
0.20
0.10
0.10 Baseline
Baseline
0.00
0.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
0 2 4 6 8 year 14 16 18 20 22 24
10 12
8
Kull, Mechler and Hochrainer (2013). year
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 33
4 • BENEFITS OF INVESTING IN HYDROMET
AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES
4.2 Estimation of Benefits from Hydromet and Early Warning Services
The results of this analysis show that the contribution of hydrological and meteorological information
to socio-economic development in Southern Africa is expected to be very high, particularly due to
the potential benefits for the increased productivity of the agriculture and energy sectors and their
contribution to GDP. Disasters related to water, especially floods, have played an important role in
evaluating the improvement of hydrological and meteorological information. This study has not
considered the numbers of deaths from an economic perspective, but only in terms of their social
impacts. As this report has avoided valuing life in economic terms, the estimates presented can be
considered conservative.
Using the 3 percent and 12 percent discount rates as lower and upper bounds, and with the estimated
annual benefits, ex ante SEB estimates were established for the EWS modernization in SADC. Table 13
shows the results from the baseline SEB calculations. The present value of benefits is between $1,299
and $4,151 million using a time horizon of 25 years and a 12 percent and 3 percent discount rate,
respectively.
Table 13: Present Value of SEB estimates for the SADC region
Benefit estimates (US$ millions)
Discount rate (%) 3.0% 7.0% 12.0%
Present value of benefits
Flood improved response 3,236.2 1,922.4 1,097.9
Drought improved management 925.8 549.9 314.1
GDP unblocked growth (agriculture and energy) 272.7 162.0 92.5
WTP 143.51 84.2 48.6
Present value of SEB 4,578.2 2,719.6 1,553.2
Present value of costs
Present value of costs 426.6 330.7 253.4
Net present value
NPV 4,151.6 2,388.9 1,299.7
The report focusses only on hydromet services related to early warning. The estimation of socio-economic
benefits is thus also related only to the direct and indirect benefits of early warning services and not for
example on agrometeorology. It is however acknowledged that potentially the socio-economic benefits
would be higher, but also that substantially more would need to be done to effectively provide different
user communities with, such as farmers, with adequate early warning services. The socio-economic
benefit analysis highlights the potentially huge benefits, which can be achieved for different sectors of
the economy.
The action plan for modernizing early warning systems in the Southern Africa region seems to have a
huge potential for socioeconomic benefits in the countries of the region. Figure 9 shows the present
value of benefits and costs, and the NPV of the plan for a discount rate of 12 percent in the considered
range of 25 years. Personnel costs have been considered separately as sensitivity analysis. It can be
observed that the investment may produce substantial benefits.
34 STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
4 • BENEFITS OF INVESTING IN HYDROMET
AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES
Figure 9: Net Present Value for the SADC region (actualized 25 years)
2000
1500
Discounted benefits (M€)
1000
Millions USD
Discounted costs (M€)
500
Discounted costs (M€)
(PC included)
0
Net Present Value (M€)
-500
Net Present Value (M€)
(PC included)
-1000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Year
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 35
An anemometer measuring wind speed and direction. Photo: LasseLund
36
STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
5 • CONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
I
n recent years, many countries in Southern Africa have made substantial progress on the modernization
of their hydromet and early warning services. Now, some countries in Southern African are on a
critical junction to sustain these services and to improve their delivery for a meaningful impact to
communities and the economy. As such, the modernization of the region’s hydromet services is feasible
and an important contribution for the climate-smart and resilient development. This chapter summarizes
the main conclusions and provides some key recommendations for implementation of actions.
5.1 Conclusions on the status of Hydromet and Early Warning Services
The analysis of the status of the NMHSs paints a diverse picture of the status of the national weather,
climate, water and early warning services in the 16 SADC member states as well as in the relevant
regional organizations.
1. Four countries in the region have “full” NMSs and two have “advanced” NMSs. In general, NHSs are
substantially weaker than NMSs, with only one having a “full” NHS and none being “advanced”. In
general, the NMHSs focus on the technical aspects of observations and monitoring and data process-
ing, analysis, and modeling and less on the service orientation. The following key challenges were
observed:
● For most countries, high percentages of meteorological and hydrological stations are not opera-
tional, while the size of the observation networks is already limited and does not meet draft GBON
standards. Usage of remote-sensing data products is common for NMSs, but not for NHSs.
● While the NMSs use GPCs, the transmission of available data to the GTS is limited and therewith
limits the calibration and initialization of the models from the GPCs. Most NMSs do not implement
the cascading forecasting process to the extent of considering the option not to have their own
LAM.
● NHSs have, in most cases, no or very limited capacity for hydrological or hydraulic modeling to
support operational decisions; thus, early warnings for floods and hydrological droughts are main-
ly based on observations only.
2. Often the weaknesses of the NMHSs are in the enabling factors such as mandates, funding, capacity
building and dissemination of information. The availability of stable power supply and basic IT infra-
structure (for example, servers and improved internet connectivity) remain a challenge. NMHSs have
big challenges attracting and keeping qualified and experienced personnel.
3. Very few NMHSs provide services to climate-sensitive economic sectors, such as agriculture. While
general agrometeorological services are available in many countries, few NMHSs are currently pro-
viding services for specific agricultural producer groups.
4. Critical gaps remain for last-mile communication and coverage of the early warning systems in major
river basins and in urban areas. Instruments such as impact-based forecasting and adapted commu-
nication protocols have been tested in pilot projects; however, they are not yet widely rolled out.
The division of tasks between DRM agencies and NMHSs is clear, though not necessarily regulated
and lacks Standard Operating Procedures for data/information sharing. For DRM agencies, serious
challenges exist with the type of information received from the NMS and NHS, in terms of format and
way to access, as well as interpretation of data and lead times for floods.
5. Southern Africa benefits organizations with a regional role, including RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La
Réunion and SADC Climate Services Centre as well as various other WMO designated roles to na-
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 37
5 • CONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
tional organizations and a facilitating role of the IOC. There are River Basin Organizations, which
facilitate data sharing, but their role in operational services is currently limited. The funding of
these centers is precarious, depending largely on project-based funding.
6. As the socioeconomic benefit analysis highlighted, there are substantial benefits from investing in
hydromet and early warning services, notably with regard to reduced damages from droughts and
floods. Benefits from strengthening hydromet and early warning services, from the perspective of
reduced damages from floods and droughts, would be of a factor of US$7 to US$12 for every US$1
invested.
5.2 Recommendations for strengthening hydromet and early warning services in the
SADC region
From the analysis on the status of the hydromet services in the region and discussions with stakeholders
in the SADC region, notably the NMHSs, recommendations to strengthen and modernize hydromet
services include:
Strengthen policies, regional collaboration and data sharing
● Any program for strengthening hydromet and early warning services in the region should be owned
and driven by the NMHSs and regional institutions in Southern Africa aimed at sustaining key weath-
er, water, climate and early warning services to the population. Going forward, the implementation
of actions needs to be driven by the SADC Member States with sound implementation plans and
coordinated actions at the regional level.
● Any regional collaboration on hydromet services should be driven by the effective exchange of hy-
dromet data between Member States, with regional and technical organizations and in compliance
with global reporting requirements, such as the Global Basic Observation Network. The existing
collaboration between RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion, SADC CSC and river basin organizations
should be strengthened and roles and mandates clarified to ensure a real-time exchange of informa-
tion, effective use of tools such as the flash flood guidance systems and roll-out of regional climate
forecasts, notably supported by the continuation of the SARCOF. To ensure operation of the organiza-
tions with a regional role, attention should be given to strengthening the coordination among these
regional centers and support to Member States with the use and application of regional products.
● The major river systems in Southern Africa are transboundary. Forecasting and managing river floods
should, thus, be considered in a transboundary context and involve the RBOs, in particular because
the modelling for early warning services is not very developed in most Member States of such RBOs.
Using, for example, common hydrological-hydraulic modeling approaches for flood forecasting, with
integration of data and information from up- and downstream parts of the basin, would support
integral monitoring and availability of data, information and products at the transboundary level.
However, it is acknowledged that for each river basin dependent also on the needs and capacities of
the Member States different approaches can be followed.
Invest in sustaining and modernizing the observation and ICT infrastructure, ensure operation and
maintenance, and leverage economies of scale in the region
● Rightsizing hydromet investments is crucial. Capital investments in any part of hydromet systems,
especially observation networks, require a corresponding increase in operation and maintenance
budgets. The focus should be on upgrading and operationalizing the existing network instead of mere
enlarging. The modernization of a hydromet and civil protection system is feasible only when gov-
38 STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
5 • CONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
ernments ensure operation and maintenance of the services, including annual resources for field mon-
itoring and station repairs as well as inhouse services. The reports highlights this clearly: To sustain
investments in hydromet and early services about 277 additional people would need to be recruited
and operation, maintenance and staffing costs to be estimated at US$ 89.6 million over 10 years.
● Observation infrastructure and high-performance computing facilities are capital intensive, with high
costs for engineering, operation and maintenance. They are, thus, mostly out of reach for many SADC
countries. Southern Africa has already successfully demonstrated collaboration is possible through for
example the Southern Africa Severe Weather Forecasting Project, through investment programs initi-
ated and coordinated by SADC CSC and the Indian Ocean Commission,. Building upon such regional
initiatives, SADC Member States can leverage economies of scale to develop infrastructure, continue to
promote cascading approaches for forecasting, and establish, promote, institutional, where possible,
twinning arrangements between countries to overcome challenges.
Focus on impact and cultivate a hydromet service culture
● ‘Science for service’ and putting the needs of women, vulnerable groups and other users of hydromet
services and early warning systems in the center of the service development will be a critical success
factor for any program supporting hydromet and early warning services in the region. So far, only a few
NMHSs have actively collaborated with users to jointly develop products and services and to provide
impact-based forecasting based on the needs of these users. In this regard, NMHSs are called to step
up efforts to actively collaborate with user groups and vulnerable communities and ensure that women
are actively involved.
● The coverage of early warning systems for floods, droughts and extreme weather events is still scat-
tered in large parts of Southern Africa and in many cases lacks effective communication with the
affected communities. Investing in early warning systems for urban areas (mostly for flash flood) and
riverine floods will be important to deliver on avoiding flood losses.
● For droughts, hydrological forecasts on water provision to urban areas and economic sectors and the
environment, as well as early warning based on meteorological and hydrological forecasts to provide
food security, will be important.
Ensuring sustainability of the investment outcomes
● The private sector and universities can play an important role to complement NMHSs in the provision
of specific services. About 40 universities exist in Southern Africa that provide programs and research
related to weather, climate, water, early warning, and disaster risk management. As such, Southern Africa
is uniquely positioned to facilitate much of the required training within the region. With regard to private
sector collaboration, most NMHSs are positive about collaboration but have, so far, little experience in
setting up and managing such collaborations. More engagement with private sector parties is needed to
understand their needs and become more end-user focused. For the NMHSs to further develop PPEs, it
is important to also have internal discussions on how relationships with the private sector are seen now,
what would be the purpose of PPE (revenue generation, cost savings and/or better services) and which
sectors to prioritize. Such a discussion will need to reflect on the policy and regulatory framework, the
capacity of the NMHS to develop services themselves, the need for additional/improved services and the
willingness of the private sector and the NMHSs to invest in setting up such a PPE.
● There need to be clear institutional roles, mandates and protocols for the organization and operation of
hydromet and early warning services. Technical activities, like meteorological and hydrological obser-
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 39
5 • CONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
vation and monitoring, meteorological forecasting, hydrological and hydraulic modeling to support
forecasting and bathymetric surveys, should be done under the guidance of the institution with the
appropriate mandate and technical authority. These institutions should contribute in a cooperative
and organized way to develop and implement flood early warning systems and to establish warning
systems for different hydroclimatic hazards.
5.3 Recommendations for Implementation
Drawing from the analysis of the status of weather, climate, water and early warning services in the
region a set of proposed outcomes and related actions for strengthening hydromet services has been
formulated. Building upon the existing strong regional institutions the following recommendations are
proposed for the implementation of those actions:
● Strengthening hydromet services in Southern Africa requires substantial investments and concerted
efforts from governments, development partners and the private sector. The estimations only for
priority actions for strengthening hydromet services and actions related to early warning estimate
needs of US$ 116 million. In addition, commitments from governments on operation and mainte-
nance, staffing and training are prerequisite for making the envisioned outcomes of such investment
sustainable. These costs can be substantial and are estimated over a period of 10 years at US$ 89.4
million for operation and maintenance and about US$ 90 million for staffing. This calls for maximiz-
ing finance, including grants, loans and public-private partnerships, and ensuring that the recovery
from the COVID-19 pandemic enables the adequate provision of hydromet services to vulnerable
communities. A phased approach, allowing an incremental increase in capacity of NMHSs, may need-
ed to be realistic and provide a durable way forward.
● Regional cooperation between the various role players in the hydromet value chain, of which the
NMHSs and disaster management structures are central, is a key success driver for improving hy-
dromet services and EWS in the region.
● Differences in climate, organizational structure, existing hydromet value chain, potential partner-
ships with the private sector and available financial and human resources all need to be considered
for a detailed design of country-level investments and actions.
● The modernization of hydromet and early warning services in Southern Africa should complement
and leverage ongoing initiatives, such as the Global Framework for Climate Services, Climate Risks
and Early Warning Services (CREWS), WMO’s SOFF and specific projects targeted towards hydromet
modernization, such as the one Indian Ocean Commission. Notably, the SOFF would be an important
program, as it aims to provide finance for bringing observation networks to GBON standards which
are prepared for running global weather forecasting models. Table 14 provides an overview of ongo-
ing initiatives in Southern Africa, which support hydromet services in the region.
● A program for modernizing hydromet and early warning services in Southern Africa should be the
joint effort of national governments, private sector and development partners and be part of the glob-
al programmatic structure, such as GBON. As a next step, the report should be taken forward through
the Hydromet Alliance, which is a joint partnership of WMO, other UN organisations and multilateral
development Banks, including World Bank. Individual country assessments, with operation, mainte-
nance and staffing plans would need to follow to operationalize the recommendations of the report.
40 STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS
5 • CONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
Table 14: Programs and initiatives to improve regional hydromet services in Southern Africa
Acronym Full name/explanation Countries
Africa Partnership of development organizations, DRC, Mozambique, Tanzania
Hydromet implemented by World Bank and GFDRR
Initiative
IOC Hydromet Program of the Indian Ocean Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles
Commission supported by GCF, AfD, EU and
other partners
CREWS Climate Risk Early Warning Systems Comoros, DRC, Madagascar, Mauritius,
Mozambique, Seychelles
FEWSNET Food Early Warning System-Net Countries with food early warnings based on
climate forecasts: DRC, Madagascar, Malawi,
Mozambique, Zimbabwe
IHP-EWS International Hydrological Program of Focus countries: Botswana, Mozambique,
UNESCO – EWS development support for South Africa, Zimbabwe
Limpopo basin
CIRDA Climate Information for Resilient Active in all 16 SADC countries.
Development and Adaptation (United Nations
Development Program – UNDP)
CLIMSA Intra-African Caribbean and Pacific Climate SADC CSC is coordinating case studies which
Services and Related Applications Program will be set up in different countries.
ClimDev-Africa CDSF is the investment arm of the ClimDev- CDSF implemented the Satellite and Weather
Special Fund Africa program that is jointly implemented Information for Disaster Resilience in Africa
(CDSF) by the African Union Commission (AUC), the (SAWIDRA) program that was implemented in
African Development Bank and the United Southern Africa via the SADC CSC.
Nations Economic Commission for Africa
(UNECA).
WISER Weather and Climate Information Services for Tanzania (active in East and West Africa but
Africa (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/wiser) with intention of developing services for the
whole of Africa)
SASSCAL Southern African Science Service Center Countries with observation stations: Angola,
for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia
Management
TAHMO Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Countries with observation stations: DRC,
Observatory Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique,
South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe.
● Regional investment programs for strengthening hydromet and early warning services in the region
should be considered as a framework and open platform for governments, development partners and
the private sector to support hydromet services in a coherent program, facilitating an incremental in-
crease to modernize hydromet and early warning services. Enhanced coordination among regional and
national partners should be the point of departure.
● Many of the proposed actions are interconnected; thus, it would be important to implement the ac-
tions in a coordinated and coherent manner. Coordination among partners would be essential and any
regional investment program would not be successful as the effort of a single partner or organization
with a large project management structure.
A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 41
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42 STATUS QUO AND PROPOSED ACTIONS