DOCUMENT OF INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION
Not For Public Use _
S ~PS-13
VOL. 10
Report Nn PS-1 3
T ANlD AND T,JATER RPTSOURCES SECTOR STUDY
1 ATrT AnM'CI
1.|L LL LL.LiI V V J.&LLUIN
VOLUME IX
SUPPORTING PROGRAMS
CONTAINING:
Foreword
Technical Report No. 27 - Family Pianning
Technical Report No. 28 - Nutrition
Technical Report No. 29 - The Power System
December 1, 1972
Asia Projects Department
| This report was prepared for official use only by the Bank Group. It may not be published. quoted
or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the
accuracy or completeness of the report.
Note
"The Land and Water Resources Sector Study -
Bangladeshii dated December is i was prepared between
May 1971 and the summer of 1972 under the general
supervision of the Bank, by starr members of the Bank,
and FAO, with substantial help from consultants. The
UNDP and the Bank shared the cost of the consulting
services. The study is made available on the understand-
ing that it does not necessarily represent the official
position of the Government of Bangladesh or of the Bank.
The study is based mostly on data collected
prior to March 1971. Although some of the information
contained in the study is out of date, the essence of it
is valid and it should be useful to the Government of
Bangladesh and to other countries, agencies, and
institutions interested in the development of Bangladesh.
VOULUME LA - SUPPT _OORAT
FOREWORD
i. No review of the Bangladesh land and water sector would have been
complete without an exploration of such supporting programs as family plan-
ning, nutrition and power. Without improved family planning, rectifying the
imbalance between population and land and water resources will not be
hnumaniy or economically feasible over the long-ran. Without improved nutri-
tion programs, the full social benefits of improved agriculture would not
be reaped. Finally, power development holds one of the keys to the long-run
economic transformation of the countryside.
ii. The report on family planning suggests that a new approach focussed
on the most receptive portions of the population and utilizing a broader
range of contraceptive techniques is needed to bring fertility rates down
and avoid the recurrence of Malthusian crises in the region.
iIi. The report on nutrition analyzes the current unsatisfactory state
of diets, particularly for infants and pregaant mothers and suggests a modest
nutrition research program.
iv. The report on power presents an interim evaluation of major new
investment alternatives, e.g. the Ehst-West Interoonnector, the Rooppur Nuclear
Project and the expansion of the Kaptai hydropower station. Simulation studies
of the region' s power network are also used to oompare Indian coal with imnorted
oil for electric power generation. On the basis of current project of demand,
no new thermal, generating facilities appear to be needed until 1980. Further
evaluation of investment alternatives are required to take specific account of
the emerging possibility of coordinated power planning studies between Bangia-
desh and Eastern India.
RESTRICTED
INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION
BANGLADESH
LAND AND WATER RESOURCES SECTOR STUDY
VOLUME IX
SUPPORTING PROGRAMS
TECHNICAL REPORT NO. 27
FAMILY PLANNING
December 1, 1972
Asia Projects Department
DAVTO-T A flSC - SECTOR'V Sirmv
LI1LJ 'JLJJJU A JIW JL I WLJ%J L%AL& LJ. L UAJ.-L
?irT Ylr,ys. -rW% e"Tfl�M'%fl M-,-y.?rs n fI% A %S
V .L,rict IA. -urprL.J.XLM4U r1L%juU�w
iE uru"'IAUB Rrun IO. 27
FArIXu. PLANNr U
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page No*
SUMMARY and CONCLUSIONS ...................... A .............i
I. SOCIO-CULTURAL SETTING ................................
II. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS 2 ............. ........... . . 2
III. FAMILY PLANNING ............ .......... 4...... 14
'L"st UL-Tabliss
1. ExpeniaLtures on rzTam'y r.ai2Ling During tUh M'ru FvexarP
2. Bangladesh - Reported Program Performance - Monthly Averages
3. Estimated Costs Of^ Contraception by DiC.ferdnt Mebthoods
1/ This .Report was written by Mr. H. M. Jones, IBRD, Population Projects
Department on the basis of a draft prepared by Miss T. Sato.
BANGLADESH.- SECTOR STUDY
VOLUME IX - SUPPORTING PROGRAMS
TEvN}ICAL REPORT NO. 27
FAMILY PLANNING
SUMMARY AND CONCLTSTONWS
i. A family planning program was introduced prior to independence
during the Third Five-Year Plan. 196q-70. The oblective was to reduce the
ratio of births to population from 50:1000 to 4O0:1000. The program fell
ahort of the mark--reducing births to an estimated h710000--deqnite a
commitment of over Rs 1,300 million (US$275 million), That less than 5%
nf the nonilationn in the rAn-nepro ivi+A-w nage-range mntlallv uqAd hirth onnntrAT
methods can be ascribed to an over-emphasis on distributing contraceptive
tiAvi Aig ri+. thmit 5an affa.t-ita pnwtmnn+A. raffti.rt ^n +.hA nieatl fnr wAtrllr-4ni
family size and the benefits to be derived from birth control practices.
ii. Any family planning program must take into account the long
standing tradi4don of a ca+A11t ^^where r'.iAnh is n+11 -
where girls are usually given in marriage at puberty. The extended family
is t-he c -im,on social pat-er- w44- a -w fe +o f-41-
If mothers-in-law could be convinced of the need for reducing family size,
t.hey m4h hae cnsIderablea inflenc on_ thVea '^^t"4n_^ .� .�n_4' t"n_
Iiii, * EYperien.ce shs +.4- -41gac - ,.--4 A no social -.d cA
changes are more receptive to family planning techniques. Therefore,
fu^ire programs for farily planninrg should fou ons,.t f the popuJa-
tion and areas of the country where other econamic development programs
are~~I& succssf La Tsmwal''-scalle faimi,er liv"An ir.S a de.sel -'I lte dist -.A _ct-- 4
- ~ nALO J.1~ ~AI~LId.J. ~.LI1.L .LZVJ.U~ LL~U10A~LJ7.. kJIkJLLyu"aVo U.L0.L-.~ LkU
where new technology is being introduced should be a prime target.
iv. Monetary incentives for vasectomies have been quite successful
and should be eRpanded Ths sim.ple operation, which provides permanent
protection, has the advantage of being wholly the decision of the male.
Frmle contracep%tIve de-vices have V more limUitd effecV part-wy due to
health complications arising from malnutrition. The oral pill, though
n.ot part of previous faml"y pIFL[L.g progras, sho-uld be consideredU as a
possible alternative. Moreover, ways need to be found for producing the
pill ocal+y a a reasonW.-le UVOU,
v.LV t UL forUV~3J . VpLUL.LIg lil.L.y pALM.UUJJg, par w.tu.aiJ..ry inf
densely populated areas of the country should include: health services
ror r,ot.her8 a. ch.lden. 1 fo -- -&- _ u entire c-v --- -
to practice -contraception; an information program to motivate both potential
recpIent andu Fpolcyr-Vaks;-j a change in the legal age for women to marry;
and promotion of the oral pill.
BANGLADESH - SECTOR STUDY
VOLME IX - SUPPORTING PROGRAJ4S
TECHNICAL RE:PART NO. 27
FWA-M-TY PTLANTND4
I. SOCIO-CLTURAL SETTING
1 01 Any connsidrat.inn of faMdlv nlannig in Bangladesh must take
into account the socio-cultural setting of the people and their attitudes
tnnw_Ad fnmill Wlnn-ln i. +.hKa nrae.siva In+atAnrst whinh mntAvat.e
a family to have children. A number of studies undertlaken to analyze this
nnn+-4r if 4n ^- .,Aaoh 4nt44 nn+ +.ht eonnrmil a' sawel as scal <1n nmv-
chological factors play a role. Among these factors are: income, level
-P -.-4 A ..w.A sc4 .1 4a n .+nn4.* an4 n1 n. 1 4 +q- f tr olM nh41l4f Ar td'
v 5 D a 4 ; x *a w t't- vu. , w'J Vd.-.- mm J 3 - r -
arable land; child labor; minimum age of marriage; education laws; status
.,rAIn4or4..C a4 1n 4.w 4-, ..A ia4 n n..a. -1 - -anranUn�
ot w"unayn; av...4lUJ,.S.I 14t of- - soc - h. -'& M% I care; 3 . c Jec
of infant and child; and availability of contraceptives. Many of these
flactw-vrs are idirece'y ca4'.. ,."ecDta..4-a by poalicyA;a.- othe4a 4.yr1 - .n.Ian.. - oci-.
economic changes and are more difficult to influence directly.
1.02 In an environment characterized by high natural and economic
ri4 sks tnesaun44..g 4t 4" nlo-As. A-ns.%.l.4 -na1 a ..A oi.-41 AranA.a
~ .LCZ %rL A C0 &LUL L A.L WIJI ._L1.1$. % UPLr155U09 Vj.eJteLWAAOCQ aa&A V.&6VJ..L AiO .I41
several childrden provide parents with a measure of social and economic
nol..ua .1. ruJe . '"v- �unu a n mat y sauaanaL paa as ctjw&s .zq JCa-VJ �aulJL .L*=
puts, and outside labor has to be hired if there are no members of the house-
3L1Ud availabp]Le UL uu �a.elp. sJLsequct&uLtLyJ, wLwr ere W'.s strong inceiU .vC f�r faGnters
to have large families to help on the farm. Ma urban areas, wages are
0� LML so z,uagur un L, a flwa.y uarmOx msxs9i8 on taos. *under bflOSO eireirm-
stances and given the practice of 1'purdah" (keeping women confined to the
1iaouUe Or .U C ( .LZLU.L w V�LcJSayj aiy 1 nJoDWe proviaau by Mtle CUl.Lurufn --an
make th,e difference between starving or having enough to eat. When a son
J .. ..... .. A.. Ah �..- L -.- -_ _____ -- _k _ . S ~--- - - _ .
-C growr up3 is UxeOU-o L uU U s u[LbJ.Uw CIUV Le auOsi8StWfECUL Lus 9.olu
parents. Thus, in the absence of government institutions to care for the
under-privileged--th.e poor, -. -th - ie si-ck n-M A at.. tn -s _a
feels compefled to seek more insurance by having ma male children. Analysis
of survey duaa has suggesweu a relationship beeesn the ueaTh of a cinal
and the subsequent probability of birth of another child to the mother.
The reproduucive respon-se Of a mother to her chwid' s death appears to be
more pronoumced if she lostA a boy rather than a girl.
1.03 Whether perceived or not, children involve costs. It is doubtful
whether, without family planning educationj parents analyze these costs
rationally and- the deprivation and health consequences to the mother and her
-2-
children resulting from more children. Costs, as perceived by the parents,
vary with the number and sex of living children in the family. The per-
ceived costs from an added child are highest when the number of children
in the family is large. One of the incremental costs of an added child
is the cost of fragmentation of land. On the other hand, cost of shelter
and clothing for additional children does not increase much in normal village
circumstances. Shelter remains the same, and clothes are for the most part
passed on from older brothers and sisters.
1.04 The traditional family is still patriarchal and patrilineal.
The male head of the family makes all important decisions. Married sons
traditionally bring their wives to live with their parents in an extended
family, and since the continuity of the family is through the male, it
is very important to have a male offspring. 'he only way a woman can
obtain status is by bearing children, especially sons. Through sons, she
has an opportunity to obtain a certain amount of authority later in life
by becoming the female head of the household who can direct her daughters-
in-law.
II. DEMOrGRAPHIC TRENDS
2.01 In the last census taken in the reeion (1961). the population
of Bangladesh was estimated to 55.3 million persons, after an adjustment
was made for an estimated 8% under-enumeration. The demographic impact
of recent events has not been adequately mmeasured, but the present population
is estimated to be well over 70 million.-. Even before that date. deamnographi
data were unreliable; there was an inadequate vital registration system
and reliance has to be placed on data from censuses and mirvevs. e Ae-ording
to census data, the population has more than doubled in Bangladesh since
the beainning of the nenturv--the resllt of A qtARdi1v higch hi,rth ra+,p
and decline in the death rate. For Pakistan as a whole, the annual rate
of crrowth of the nonulatio-n was 1As than 1t fTnr the first. +hree decad'
of this century. The 1961 census showed an average annual growth rate of
2.2% dhring the precedinpg deaade. The Porplatinn nrnwth Estimate Project
(PGE) showed an annual growth rate of 3.3% for the period 1962-65. For the
purposes of nreparing the 1965 -70 Family Plarning Scheme, the P1ristnn
Government assumed a growth rate of 3% for 1965. For Bangladesh, the crude
birth rat+ ws estimat ed (-from pr-E data) to be ahout 53 for +he period
1962-65. From a level of about 30 after World War II, the death rate fell
:>^ herim+. 97 -n tOQC:: anti +^ h io+ tOin +.ha n ri oAq_4t: {tis {^
__~ __ ~~- '*' ~A�A.J S~~ * - -- -- ^
The decline is believed to be due to improved medical services and to the
1/ IBRD Economics Department projections have Bangladesh population esti-
-m- L* as JI. . 7 Vl'JJolIAm L.L.LS
amelioration of diseases such as cholera and smallpox. There has been little
olWLL5gs.JiI Anu uU L e1 .L -I'LUA * . LL d.[LLD 1ii.L U 11 l, d.bL U Lo-'so raaLIn 1nsgh du -"as
estimated to be about 138 per 1,000 live births in 1963. Fbr planning
Fu-poses, a i.LL'wL r aI of. VI rSLd a dea'U rate oi 2 -Vr-re assWid for th-e
Family Planning Scheme in 1965. Discounting recent events and the demographic
etMItcIb '.1 Lmmi ation, b pop-LuatioJ.n growwin rLdM W-a u1 Wm OrUCr 01
3% per anmnm in 1970. By most estimates, the average expectation of life
at birth for malas and females was about 40 yearu in 1961, that for males
being marginally higher than for females.
2.02 In considering the consequences of the demographic situation,
the physical setting is of importance. The area or Bangladesh is about
55,000 square miles, which gives an average crude density of about 1100/lank,
among the highiest in the world. During the monsoon (June-september) mucn
of the land is flooded, thus adding to communications problems posed by the
complex water pattern of the delta. The population is predominantly rural;
in 1941 only 4% of the population lived in urban areas and by 1961 this
proportion had risen only to about 5%. There are only 4 cities with a
population of over 100,000 people--Dacca, Chittagong, Narayanganj and
Kulna. The remainder of the population lives in some 65,000 villages and
small towns. Within the framework of a large rural population depending
primarily on agrarian resources, there are wide variations in population
distribution. The four most densely populated districts are Comilla,
Dacca, Noakhali and Faridpur.
2.03 Islam is the predominant religion, (over 80% of the population
is Muslim) and the Bengalis are the major ethnic group. QnCly about 18%
of the total population is literate, but this proportion rises to between
30 and 40% in the cities. The population is heavily weighted to the younger
age groups: in 1961, some 47% of the population was under 15 years of
age. The sex ratio was 1,076 males per 1,000 females in 1961, a reflection
of the marginally greater longevity of men, or to put it another way,
higher female mortality. The average age of females at marriage was about
15.7 years, according to 1964 survey data. The age at marriage for men
is typically six to ten years above that for women. In the 15-19 year age
group, same 90% of the females were married. While the Maslim Family
Ordinance of 1961 forbids marriage for women below 16 years and for men
below 18 years, it has not been enforced in Bangladesh.
2.04 Among the more obvious consequences of the high population growth
rate in Bangladesh is the pressure on land. The average density per acre
of cultivated land is almost 3 persons. Lack of incentive or means to move
to urban areas has resulted in the increasing fragmentation of rural holdings.
The high population growth rate has serious implications for any plans
adopted to tackle the problems of unemployment. The labor force partici-
pation rate has been estimated to be as low as 31% for Pakistan as a whole.
One factor is the very high dependency ratio. in itself the result of the
youthful characteristic of the population.
= 4-
III. FAMILY PLANNING
3.01 06"le vLe >from L &iiL yp<ri. I ob star` wdi 1952 and
V, JI bIL.~VI.U. I,.Ly .L LJ rI.L "L6LU tuI. LrUtI W~ &U JJI Iy>
provision for family planning was included in the first two-five year
paLsa it -ws rot -un Li t'he appoirntnent of a CoumisasiOner in 1964 and
the incorporation of a scheme in the Third Five-Year Plan (1965-70) that
a meaningfuJ. famlly plannung prOgram was developed in the region. The
minimum objectives of the scheme were to reduce the annual birth rate from
50/1 , 000 tw /I , 000 in that period, and terebU y reduce the growth rate
from 3.0% to about 2.5% per annum.
3.02 To achieve this objective would have required the prevention
of at least five to six mlldion births during that period. gnis was to
be done by the initiation of a mass program oriented to the public through
the efficient distribution of contraceptive supplies and a motivation
campaign based on person-to-person contact. It was initially directed,
in Bangladesh, at 10 of the 17 districts. The scheme was considered to be
an administrative activity rather than a clinical program and for this
purpose a National Family Planning Council was established. Authority was
vested in a National Family Planning Board established with offices at
district and Tnana levels. A wide choice of contraceptives was made available,
including conventional as well as temporary and permanent clinical methods.
Tne choice did not, however, include oral pills. The motivation program
was developed using these different channels: (a) mass media; (b) person-
to-person contacts; and, (c) institutional or organizational channels.
In addition, an incentive scheme was developed which provided monetary
incentives to doctors and health staff for IUD insertions and and sterili-
zations, and to referers of clients for IUD insertions. Wdith few exceptions,
no acceptor incentives were paid, though compensation payment was made for
loss of pay and travel expenses.
3.03 Daplementation of the program involved the recruitment and train-
ing of some 22,000 people working in the family planning program in Bangladesh.
Cf these, some 20,000 were lady organizers working at village level and
recruited from among the traditional midwives and community leaders. Clin-
ical workers included lady doctors, lady health workers, and lady family
planning visitors; the majority of whom worked part-time. Their work was
supplemented by that of other doctors who were paid incentives for IUD
insertions, vasectomies and tubectomies. The serious shortage of female
doctors to perform IUD insertions in rural areas, led to the introduction
of the lady health worker (public health midwives) and lady family planniny
visitors. The latter were single-purpose family planning workers specially
trained for 14 months in the theory and practice of family planning.
Both categories were trained to insert lUDs and in 1969 over 75% of the
insertions were performed by paramedical workers. Camps and mobile teams
supplemented the work of traditional midwives and paramedical workers.
3.04 To finance this program some Rs 1,36) million was allocated to
Bangladesh (Table 1). The foreign exchange component of roughly 25% was
used for contraceptives, vehicles, audiovisual equipment, advanced training
programs, and consultative services. In spite of the confusion and uncer-
tainty caused by the 1965 Indo-Pakistani conflict, total spending exceeded
budgetary allocations during the Five-Year Plan period.
3.05 Data on performance during this period (1965-70), generally
refers to Pakistan including what is now Bangladesh (see Table 2). initially
the IUD was the most important method used in the program. By 1 969, although
its usage was rising numerically, the IUD was declining proportionately to
other methods used. Insensitive initial selection of clients gave rise
to a significant proportion who reported side effects, and this factor,
together with the shortage of medical staff and facilities limiting adequate
follow up, was the probable cause for the observed decline in retention
rates. The generally upward usage of conventional contraceptives during
this period resulted mainly from the increased distribution of condoms and
a decline in foam tablets and other conventionals. This was due mainly to
the regularitv of suDDlies of condoms (nrovided bv SmA) in contrast to the
irregular availability of other conventionals. At first, it was assumed
that the acceptances of sterilization would be minimal but the table below
shows the rapid increase in sterilization in Bangladesh is very noticeable.
TOTAL NUMBER OF STERILIZATIONS DURfTlG THIRD PLANYA
An-hial MJiImhAmr 'P-nAv'r+.aA
Year (x1000)
1965/1966 5
1- 6/1 967 )7
1967/1968 252
19,68/1969 391
1969/1970 318
Of the operations performed, vasectomies have accounted for the major
pronortion. due nrnbablv to the lack ^n f htoni+ bed and medical faclities
which tubectomies demand. The program did not make use of oral contrceptives,
but inroduced a few lilmite p4lot projectBs
3.06 Tn at.tempti4. ng t^. define +h.e -^ffee oe + o.. a
moderating fertility rate, the program used the concept of couple years
1/ Calculated from: Family Planning Division, Government of Pakistan,
Vamilv Plnnning Scaheme forf paidstan trr the Four:th rai-' Period
19701 975, (Islb : Government's Press, 1 969). Data obtr-ined
Dacca, March, 1971.
- 6 -
of protection (CYP). The compuzed value of CYP for each month's contra-
ceptive performance was based on an assigned value of 2.5 CYP for each
IUD insertion, 7.5 CYP for each sterilization and 0.01 CYP for each unit
of conventional contraceptives reported as distributed. Without, however,
a base provided by a system of vital registration, or adequate survey data,
it is not possible to accurately measure fertility.change during the period.
The success of the program must be measured in terms of service statistics.
These data show that an organizational base for a mass family planning pro-
gram was established during this period and that an effective start had
been made to create a public awareness of the need for family planning.
DI terms of its initial statement, the objectives of the scheme were not
reached but this fact should be viewed against the disturbed political
and admininstrative background at the beginning and end of the period.
It should also,be remembered that the targets set for the program were
deliberately revised upwards during the plan period to act as an incentive
to family planning workers.
Future Strategy
3.07 Before the independence (recent political separation) of Bangladesh,
the Fourth Five-Year econamic program for Pakistan (1970-75) included pro-
vision for an extension of the family planning scheme, allocating Rs 3,160
million to the country (east wing) for this purpose. Most of the alterations
and changes in organizational structure were made in response to problems
which had become apparent during the third plan period. These changes
included the following:
a.* the traditional midwife (dai) who had played a
central role in client contact. was to be renlaced
by better trained full-time family planning
workars. including both men and women;
b. changes in staffing natterns at both distrint. nnd
Thana levels were to be made to reflect population
size rather than administrative structure:I
Co accounting staffs were to be strengthened and new
procedures introduced to improve the flow and
nuallitv nof serrioe stlARtithIq:
d. -"esetrCh anti u-4ttae i.r.Tn +h%e tir+n 1iad sind
strengthened; and
e. clinical facilities were to be expanded and an in-
stitutional postpartumt program. developed.
3.n8 nacen-.t events 4n +'h YaMt%-o n h.ea a maor iM^ act on the family
planning program and organization. They also had severe demographic reper-
t--nacitv in +tAmc nf g 4nanasonw+soP 4 .w w v4 v ah4 4VcB+. v-1 -;-v
- 7 -
There is, however, evidence that the Family Planning Board and over half
of the field staff are still functioning despite serious constraints, such
as shortage of money to pay salaries and a lack of supplies. The organiza-
tion of the training Research and Evaluation Center in Dacca is still
largely intact and continues to function. The delineation of a strategy
for the future can be made only on a careful assessment of the existing
organization and of the probable receptivity of family. planning in the
current socio-economic context on both national and personal levels.
Steps taken to revive and extend the organization must be made in the context,
of other socio-economic development efforts, particularly those in public
health and education. Desnite the severely strained government resources,
the long-term nature of effects on fertility reduction resulting from a
family planning proeram suLeest that the nroLram should be revived in
Bangladesh at the earliest opportunity. It should be based on the strategy
developed in the Third Five-Year 'plan neriod with the modifications nronosed
for the fourth plan period and developed in the light of prevailing conditions.
Direction should still be focussed on these areas in which motivation is
facilitated by ease of communications and density of population. There
is evidence from the rnmilla Proiect that familv planning was more successful
in areas experiencing social and economic change. This suggests that
areas where the new agric--ultural technoloy has a chAnce of +takina root
(particularly where water control is available) might be particularly
suitable targets. TTider the r.iroimetances, part-lii1nr attention will hanve
to be paid to training permanent family planning staff and to the most
suitable and effec-tirve methoris oef nnim.nei'tjng f'nnilw nIn-ni-4-f eo jtion.
Substantial international assistance may be required particularly for com-
modities. Fl_nnpjlies. trnininc, nrogmn avnA the weonsa ,.Moi, o+.
administrative buildings, clinics, etc.
TAML 1
EXPENDITURES ON FAMILY PIANNING DURING
THE THD FIVE-EAR PLAN
(Millions of Rupees)
Foreign *
West Central Exchange
Pakistan Banladesh Pakistan Total Component
1965-66 249.8 240.5 21.4 511.7 149.0
1966-67 234.1 236.7 22.6 493.4 108.0
1967-68 260.6 264.3 21.8 546.7 133.0
1968-69 295.7 301.1 21.9 618.7 151.0
1969-70 331.3 320.0 22.4 673.7 172.0
1,372.0 1,362.0 110.0 2,8114.o 713.0
*Tn Tnl nAilA 4yn 'P+n1l
Source:T FAmil Planning Sceme for nPt4a+n, At"A4 +)ka n4vw4 L%4- V^r
Plan Peiod p. 15.
TIABLE- 2
BANGLADISH
REPORTED PIOGRAM PEIRFORKANCE
3U)NTH AVERAaGS
Sterilization
IUD Conventionals (Operations
(IU0ertatons) (Numbers Sold) Performed)
Sept. 65 - Jun. 66 9,653 (5,5583)* 1,250,876 (2,381,861) 404 (130)
Jul. 666 - Jun. 67 20,873 (28,157) 2,854,218 (5,241,923) 3,909 (152)
Jul. 67 - Feb. 68 27,526 (34,198) 5,321,312 (7,915,612) 19,773 (206)
Source: UN - WED Advisory Mission Report, April 1969.
* West Pakistan fiwures in paretk.sis for couarison.
WSTIXATID COSTS OF CONTEACITI0iF Br nMruitn mPiD
(Rupees)
TEAR 1969/1970 19742.V75
PMETOD
UNIT OF AALMSIS COiventiozoal SteriliuatLen IUD CowentUo1 Steldliswatims I51) ORAL
_�, 1000 P _C 1 Op ati, 1 Ins. 13000 _ 1PCs CtA L 1 Low. 10COa(O
Direct Costs
Contraceptive 40 .5 | 40 .5 1lo
Fee to Servwio Personnel, 20 4.5 1$5 3.01
Fee to Motivational Pero. 5 2.5 5 2.0
Fee to Client 20 2.0 . I
TOTAL 40 45 9.5 -40 35 5.5 100
1/
Indirect Costos 12 6 _ 17 6 L1.0 6
52 51 15.0 57 43. 16.5 106
Cr/per Unit of Analysis 7.5 5 2 7.5 5 2 6.15
OD9tS Per CYP 7 10 7.50 7.5 8 8 17
L/ As indirect. costs onl.r those costs haive been taken vkiLh stiLL bear a fairly close relatioship to the
wontraceptive proirided. Percentages of thxe cost items to be allooat.i to the difrereat oontraeptiLve
methods have been estiLmated by the author as follows:
Ref erTml C1nics 40 60 70 30
Post-partim Clinics 60 30 10
Rral Clinics 70 30
Mobile Clinics 30 30 l40 20 40 20 20
Meidical Personnel 70 30 70 10 20
La�|t F.P1. ViSitorS 10 90 10 40
ibis 20
F.P. Workers 10
2,/ For the definition of CYP (Couple-Year of ProtectioLn) see the text.
F -4
C) r1 CC) '
F-4
E-4~~~~~~~~~~V
F4. a 1-4 C% 4
04 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ' t
0I
4)~~~~~~~~$
P~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~P
~~~~~~~ .4 4-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~C
14
0O
.4g
BANGLADESH - SECTOR 3TUDY
VOL1F TIX - SUPPORTING PROGRAMS
TRNTCTAT. REPORT NOo 28
IMTT'1'RT'PfN.L/
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Pa I No..
jURIuI'U& .L aIXU .V6J . 0 0 .......a.. . . . . _ _
Gener-' JA-"uz c V.4 rUx'.LA&-LtzA& ior 0z@ow,i@@4@ a a1
Calorie Deficiency ......... ..........,, . 2
Protein iaxlnut riti .i. *. . I
Vitamin A Deficiency ................... ....................
Riboflavin Deficiency 7
Anemia .. ... .7
Goiter ..... -S. . . . g.e...... ............ .... 8
Vitamin C Deficiency .. B
Rickets and Osteomaiacia ......
Beriberi and Pellagra ................. ...... C O 9
Urban Nuritional Status 7. ..... ...... e........**g .... 9
Recommendations eoeoe..oo 0ooo....ooooooee .00 e 0o0oo0000Co0 10
li 'uThis report prepared by B. uuby draws a.Umost U .l - 4-. 'ku.. 4�4
-Survey of East Pakistan March 1962-January 1964, a report by the
Ministry of Healtn, Government of Pai"Ltai, in COllabor-ation -with the
University of Dacca and the Nutrition Section, Office of International
Research, National JYtn-`u-ts Of Health, U.S. Depar-e-n=iit OfL Hea1th,
Education and Welfare, Public Health Service, May 1966.
- 2 -
List of Tables
1. Intake of Fbod by Food Groups in 17 Rural Locations and in 5 Urban
2. Observed and Desirable Levels of Per Capita Nutrient Intake
R ThRm+.i.Ama nf Snher:nin rteiflnnmn +.4nn (1 qFg -1 OJ)I
-.~~~ - r _
Figure 1 Seasonal Protein Correlations
Wi e > 2~n qqii1nn 171l tomi ^ nl A a n n l.f
BANGLADESH - SECTOR STUDY
VOLUKE IX - SUPPORTING PROGRAMS
TECHNICAL REPORT NO. 28 - NUTRITION
SR1TMWARY ANM CONLUTSIONS
i. A comprehensive nutrition survey completed in 19646 shows that
maL nutritIon affects approximately one-half the fangladesh population.
As might be expected, the most severe mal.nouriahtuent occurs in pre-school
age childtren and child-bearinw women. Rice forms two-thirds of the dry
weight in an individual's daily diet--a food with relatively low nutri-
t.i n2n;l vraliue
ii: Ahbit 2% of the vlsvbhnrn nhildrrn die before their fifth birth-
day--a good index of prevalent malnutrition. Retardation in growth is
nnwt,riinwrlt nvit4an.t ehah.mn *hs nasa neP g-24 mnnthm.a tT%is ornwth nattern
and continued slow growth results from the fact that some 46% of the holuse-
horlda hn'e nan innAnrniaslA te.clnri G intn+lA
iii. Tme-la ck nornftnn aff?etS ta erwnuia Ghil_dran Andi prArnant women.
Protoein deficiency is also responsible for lowering physical and mental
nPfi ni nnc-y, resIstance t A4iea_ ndH LhA work. o-apacity of nlmynst half
the adult population. The best protein sources are animal products, but
these ara exfnsniv Howernwnr, on Witrhjn the )imiteld Acnnomiic rfrcn1mstanesR
of the Country much protein deficiency could be averted through nutrition
education-
i,r TAIS+anv4" nA 4 a %naw+Ae inii 1 fr&1 4mnank%wAnvi 4#n" r nwo..an>innnh1 n-hlr7an nrlir
i',' V+ -. XL 4S I_+4csn __. _or _- for pre-srolCiXe n
pregnant women. Here, as with proteins, the low intake is not only the
na..'.1 of' ..P Mafrw*= but 'so oa -ck 1 n,.b' 4 rt9.nnrmn 4.4,an nhaii+. 44.o 4 rrnnw+nnc.c
of vitamins. Almost half the population appears deficient in riboflavin,
a .nutir4ent nrecessary f or nail rsnna4 -,4on: arA r..e boli4 Dl..' -4bv'is4i tnt^Xe
~ _,+~4--+ - - - - 'P- -~ a~ ---4-AI- i..h -Af
could be corrected by increased production and consumption of pulses. An
esL,+- t 4r-a..e-4 ..A .4 1.-. e pw.an -.44 on n s 4 P annS"4oa 1. nlires"i +4 e
V.CU-S& I%411~ B - tPJ. APAA. IJJkJ64.606.uA.ja a A. i. J I - 5-iw
from iron deficiency. Again, the problem attacks growing children and
cs'-se 14 sVen~ A.M.a. seerly A wvr V t%. i .V' tA.Wfl^ .r.Jk1aVAtAB.-o A ,^sVAlJ...
goiters, caused by iodine deficiency. Therefore, a program to iodize salt
.ni,nh+ woAu.na go4+r noe.i anon A. lnl-.AohB
-0 - * ~ ~d .%.t M & AalAC
v. - It oharndi Abe poas4bie -oginnollr 1t raAune +t.hn Yna+ now4i^vua n."
tritional deficiencies in Bangladesh by implementing the following sug-
gesat,aians
- ii -
a. For alleviation of protein malnutrition, rice should
be suppleumnted with more pulses ,nd animal protein
(mainly cheap fish) in the diet.1/
b. Increased production of fruits and green leafy vege-
tables (rich sources of provitiamin A, riboflavin and vi-
tamin C) should be emphasized.
c. Emphasis should be placed on the consumption of oils
other than mustard oil, and a market for these oils
should be developed.
d. Establishment of a Nutrition Institate in Bangladesh,
with a well-equipped nutrition laboratory should have
priority. Such an Institute would have the responsi-
bility of conducting research on those problems affect-
ing the nmtritional health of the various population
groups in Bangladesh.
e. A new comprehensive nutrition survey should now be
undertaken every ten years. Din this connection a
nutxition survey should take place within the period
19?2-74. This should take account of work currently
undertaken under the sponsorship of the United Nations
Relief Operations in Dacca (UNROD).
1/ Tin line with the high prinoiity attarhed tn fisherie4 dAvPliep.ment as a
source of proteins a comprehensive inland fisheries development program
i9c n-oer_Ad i n 'rRnh,n4-rI PrAr-t Un,o 11
BANGLADESH - SECTOR STUDY
VOLUME IX - SUPPORTING PROGRAMS
TECHNICAL REPORT NO. 28
NUTRITION
1. The onlv maimr nutrition survev of RanalAaQeh tn date was made
in 1962-641/ After studies of approximately 15,000 persons frmu all geo-
rrnnhln And eiArnnnmfi n ~qster-nq the nnrvrny siemetratns that. ma1nn+.ri i vnn
affects the health and well-being of at leash half the population of Bang-
1lndesh. Growi.ing chi_ldren espcarually thoQe v- rs-snhnnl age, and wmn
of child-bearing age are most severely affected, but no age group escapes
t.h� efffets of maVrn trttAnn*
2. The general nattern of foodr i i8nke In based havily on trie.
Over two-thirds of the dry weight of the daily diet consists of rice, which
iS enruni em0n+Ad hy rrirFes, nr4mnrl nf �rs00tnhe ^r ih nAq nnl
in the form of dal. MLik and meat products are consumed in smal] amounts,
and. f�,rlt L,4tFr 4l na alnm^n+ Ann+4altr seasono^l tuhrw 4-n Thiln% r,+-d r
cooking fats and oils is scanty. Most foods are taken in their natural
,,erfi4e nov-I nQn hUt ne.nlr nn nnonra+-4non nP+avt laA 4-n anne4 Aawnl, alsse
of certain nutrients, such as vitamin C, thiamine and niacin. (it is for-
inmate that t.h.e bulk of tehP r-ce cor.sumed 4.S pcOfleq, we-d +.. reta4-s a
portion of its thiamine and niacin even after cooking in excess water.)
3. The essentials of a good basic diet are present, but the diet
nas recrded i9 apoonnltr hnl o 4 e c4 nllir 4" niwo1 eas 'S nFlq - 4 4-4-
foods present in the diet are eaten in such snall amounts that they seldom
n.nlra nw.b e,oise+n4n n.,n 4-n+An.4> _ n 4'l.. wm.4wa-_ 4.,A_ t1 �^Sul~
.,.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-- 4c., --s1 -t-4-1 v . _vzwv . rCsu- -vL
5 OJt CALJ, QSSJn ~AULJ' ~ W14t US LItAU.L%MAlt WV. WISVLO%& LASSUS'WA fUaOe% F&D�L CLV OL._ UILC.LZ'
is little knowledge of special needs for growing children or for pregnant
at'so +�4 avaz.lbJF fo.. us. �64- �L-t rit .LAA qA. U U- U b -
tributed within the household in an effective manner. From the social
pttn of the culture i t C .j be. ." .tldL rach L1 1besL a. � s-
served for adult males, with women and growing children receiving the re-
_ 4_ 4...... _P .._.A . __..-.g -4- J.... S_ ._ _ . _ _ fl Lt- -
S,L wUj UvVLL 1'IL'LI.LJA.L 9ULL LV)C a" F-qu.J..ru BO= ruYtr5a.L o1 (sLS cuQ9wm.
uCl�Or.L. JJLLCC V L Ii fld.LLU L'.LL.J.UL0
uene-dl =cs4 -s arnUorZg
L TDa..Ah. rA. � LJ'1.� �eIt.. n .i -s IUv ns chn-ilren
die before their fifth birthay. From European averages the comparable
figu6e s 2.% g vAn- F,-ne U9ecr,t of liv"Ueborn3 die pior to one year of
age (as compared with 2.3% in Diropean countries). However, mortality
J.. MA - w -J-.u-W aC- 6 6roup Kaas uaeL saouwn to errse.Lare c�.Loseiy with
I I iiLd" reU port- praL-red VI De. Lu.xy draw8 aa3.uOa UnrQir�Ly on wne NuTrinTon
Szrvey of East PakLstan, March 1962-January 1964, a report bytleie
vi7W;~-4 TT-'A41 W sJ V- sQ o0 -- rd _Ova
raiaaata LV. U.L -ICULi, U�JVCCJUU -L. S raitta.L0a=pii, WLbrata W.T T
University of Dacca and the Nutrition Sectian, Office of international
e-a. .l, na T .-1 ar .st Wi T,c u.neAL w , u OnSarwi , OI nea�r;n,
Education and Welfare, Nblic Health Service., May 1966.
- 2 -
nutritional status. Nins nerewit of livebhnrn ehild-ren die during
this period of life, coepared to 0.1% of European children. This extremely
phih mortalitv can be considerad a ood i Ondex f wide'- prevalen+t .m
trition. Paradoxically, the high mortality may contribute to high birth
rates: the knowledcrn that a large proportion of the ir ch-ilren A II never
reach adulthood may prompt families to have many children in order to assure
themseltres measui-re af o1 r it'y inn thnir old ageb )taet-ures to cnro.4-
--- - - - �- - -J -.1 -- -
birth rates may be more effective If coupled with nutrition education.
5. Considerable retardation in growth is evident when Bangladesh
children are compared to Euopeanr childiren. The differences are zrn-Im-4l
at birth, but develop between 9 and 24 months of age. Thereafter child
growth in Rangwlades-h parallels growth of ELr.pean chilwren,+ bu+-nnnn w-elI
below that of the latter. While the relative effects of genetic factors
in nroducing mCh diffferenaes capnno be ascer+t4nnrt 4- the pon-w-tion
involved, the available evidence suggests that nutritional status may in-
fluenee c,rnihwh VrtA tecnsidarabl within the 14m4t5 Of VnennC potent-ial.
Thus, delayed growth and lesser adult height and weight may be a result of
malnutirition in the criticarl pp-schAol pen4 o.
C--Q1 ori Deficien-cy
6. rSinries are the energy whiCh bta hnA.r -U4i4zes for -'' 4 -a cUv-
ities; lack of calories (under-nutrition) leads to an inability to work
effev'tjnVtu-r na y aotar.wut+-an An- --~--n~ --- ---
avly n1aid eventually tpo *eU.&JflrognhjJ m to JILjUr1ov 1r InU4wJL0iO
must operate in such a way as to provide sufficient calories to meet basic
nerds nA tha+e ex+ran needs forn eaffectin work. %lo-L,es e obved entirely
from carbohydrates, protein or fat. Of the three, fat is the most efficient
JLJ.LJA5 c I.SLU .Vs pe,- gram al comjpared wt 4- ca�or.s per gram
of carbohydrate of protein; increased fat intake is therefore the most
efi-cier.t way Ito iUcrease c&a.Ort.0 Uupp�y.
7. FvrtVy-sr percerit of househols s ied had inadequate caloric
intakes; most of these were low-income families. Clinical data on skin-
Ir 1 .34,U --S 1.115 15tb --
folwd . dch.1.W t I.U.L U - S LL poA-tion is thin, supporting tne dietary
evidence of inadequate caloric intake in a large proportion of those studied.
8. *mere are two seasonal periods when caloric intake is especially
low--winter arnid -onson. aloric intake closely follows the intake
of cereals. Whether cereal intake is high or low, the proportion of calories
com-ng frwom carbohUdratw sources remains stable (82%-83% of calories are
from carbohydrate). The same stability of caloric source is apparent for
comparisons by income as well. The dietary pattern is uniform through-
out with heavy dependence on cereals, predominantly rice, as a source of
calories. It would appear that the availability of rice is the factor which
most determines levels of caloric intake.
9. For better nutrition, a more varied diet is necessary. Compari-
son of fouu instake and nutritional status in rural and urban areas illus-
trates this. Food intake in urban areas follows a pattern of less cereals
- 3 -
and starchy roots, more intake of all other 'food groups. Fewer of the
calories in urban diets come from carbohydrates. Still more important
is the fact that better balance will provide more of the other nutrients
lackins, in the diet. Rice is lacking in vitamin A and vitamin C, and low
in riboflavin, so that a diet largely composed of rice will inevitably be
lacking in these nutrients.
Protein Malnutrition
10. Lack of protein is a widespread nutritional problem in Bangladesh.
Protein is needed as a source of calories, but is even more important be-
cause of its role in growth. Proteins provide the basic substances for
building tissures.. Hence a deficiency of protein has its most important
effects on the child, where it results in izpaired erowth and develotmient.
11. The two conditions of kwashiorkor and marasmas constitute oPDo-
site ends in the spectrum of protein-calorie malnutrition: if the deficiency
is primarily one of nrotein. the child will develop kwashiorkor; if calories
are the major deficiency, marasmus is the result. Mbst cases involve both
difiniAsniA., nnd Ar & sitfficult tn nlasaifv as nurelv kwashiorkor or marasmus.
Protein lack in older persons is more often evidenced by decreased resis-
ta.ae A+. Aaoase r n A- t+,Hn by emv%rt linit] evidAinne.
12. The qmimU4 +U of +he proie i,n fh+.e di_t . nS mpnor+.tnt for the
prevention of deficiency as the quantity. The pattemn of amino-acid con-
+ar:+ * ?n4nn e4"g +1% +,'ha f3e%A e I^-naim ? ;ce+.a4n fnrvis 9uich nam
n. ----.. rd: . , _ __ __ --- - ---
fish, eggs and milk products have amino-acid patterns which most closely
^ vr;.- s+ hnsa 1rt,,ynnv% D v * O+n4 v snoa+shlKn ca emv-h whi1
arjJ 5.dI W *fl- I. '.6*A4 w * _- - . - -- -
itself incomplete, may complement protein from a second plant source to
vw.,a,4 A ngo^i. pr+n+4 ,viPwsw Ar- defic4en4 ny
I3 m * n 4-4.e m,meuT a.vage protein 49-. 1i.e iirus i 1"^ An%eqia I in
the lowest two income ranges (up to Rs 200 per month), constituting 85%
of the;zw r'rl 'i tion. Sixty 4.rcni.04r _a"a 1 A a +iiiA4aA A4A r.o wi, =
acceptable levels . Almost 70% of the dietary protein is cereal protein,
and. O.l- 114d' 4s -fro,,, anin sources. M6ue; -to +-., prote4_ .4 41 te s o
&. &.A ILJ I 4m J.L .1 ~~L OA&LJ1IXJ. vIIA %.,UaO ALV4LJ4A WW'J U eA JJ4 J .6&&I U LWJ .1.i
in urban areas, almost twice as much of it comes from animal sources.
Fft.p-re "o nc n,rce o4 c'4-ical' pro A.d 4- y 4- * urbn ,s.s,1,n..4 ,e
LL J.I LUVV . L plW ELL LJ. %,_.A %; 'eJ. VU .~J6A& .& JJ~A . &&A S U ClA & O.L0l 5JrI..A
the relative importance of animal proteins in contributing to nutritional
adequacyt.
14. . I~r 1 4S5u+ 4Svsn ...l.sirs44 ;.4..n s tn-^h 4.1, suave,.s
found to be of importance in evaluating protein deficiency in Bangladesh.
Th;.e total prot^ein+~It. as vrN+ a nood 4-^A x of aAnqinny o4 nrois4on.s
al- V --- J - _.~ _ _.0 ..W 5% 6W _- SP % I D ~ . %%l . A
deficiency; because of the high cereal intake, it correlates better with
sann ann 1 4n+ beL- ofP nnnnea a nnd herna.ce *1 an' C . a a4 *han trl +1. pr..n.nla., nat
hjU '..l~b4. .&I&hS SJ. U O~ I& U% W I.& OJ~&W *& W-WA& ~ l.~
of protein deficiency. Seventy percent of the dietary protein obtained
prten, i-n- 4t 4 4op4u4lai ap4pea 4rs to -be 4 p i- by 44pulses whnpul4e4-
A.A 'I* ' A U .L .&O WV~~.L %JA 0F .6.16JL W dU jM kJ .. C.AJ~ %/ WU%, U.L v
protein in this population appears to be provided by pulses; when pulse
-I4 -
intake drops, deficiency becomes more prevalent. Pulse consumption in
the population is small but critical, for the small amount of pulse protein
complements the basic rice protein to prevent deficiency. The implications
of this relationship need special emphasis, for pulses are a popular and
relatively inexpensive source of protein of high biologic value. Agricul-
tural production of pulses has decreased over the past ten years; this trend
has serious consequences for the population's health in the future. An
already widely prevalent protein deficiency may be further aggravated if
the trend is not reversed. Similar attention is needed to increase avail-
ability of fish, which is another popular source of protein of high bio-
logic value.
15. The special protein needs during growth are indicated by the
greater prevalence of deficiency among growing children. However, bio-
chemical deficiency is found widely in the adult population as well.
Such subclinical deficeincy may lower the physical and mental efficiency,
the resistance to disease and the capacity of almost half the population.
16. Prevention of protein deficiency is closely related to factors
of income and agricultural production. The best sources of protein of high
biologic value ar,e animal products, and these are so expensive that the
small quantity produced by low income families is sold as a source of
income. However, lack of knowledge also plays a role; information on the
role of pulses and fish as good protein sources and the increased needs
in vulnerable groups are matters requiring nutrition education rather than
increased income alone.
17. Food and agriculture planning should take into account the po-
tential results of better balance in food production. The quest for continued
adeauacy of caloric supply should be coordinated with afforts to supply other
needed nutrients. Some good sources of protein, for example, are also
good sources of calories: pulses are as high in caloric value as rice. and
three times as high as potatoes; they have three to four times as much
protein ag rice. ten to fifteen tides as much protein as Dotatoes. The table
below shows the effects on nutrient intake which are obtained by supplying
50 additional gramns of either rice or lentils to a diet.
Matrients Snpplied by 50 Grams of Rice or lentils
Nutrient Rice Tentils
Calorieq 180 180
Protein (gm) 3.5 12.0
Fat (0u) Oe4 ,..7
Calcium (mg) 15 34
Vyta-nmi-n A (IT--) 0 16
Thiamine (mg) 0.11 0.23
TAboflavi n (m- ) 0=02 0=16
Niacin (mg) 2.0 1.2
Vitmn C (I) 0 2.5
18. It can be seen that for an equivalent dry weight, pulses supply
more of every nutrient except niacin. The difference is most marked for
protein and riboflavin, both of which are major deficiencies in Bangladesh.
Lentils supply four times as much protein (and eight times as much ribo-
flavin) as rice. A person increasing his rice intake by 50 gm would receive
an additional 180 calories and 3.5 zm of protein: if he increased his
intake of pulses by 50 gm he would receive the same additional caloric value,
but four times the amount of protein. This extra 12 gm of prot+in wnuld
also complement his basic rice protein to give him a considerable quali-
tative advantage as well as a quantitative increase in nrotein nutriti-nn-
Vitamin A Deficiency
19. This deficiency ranks with nrnteAin dpfieier-Gv in consemp ncem
to health. Vitamin A deficiency leads to the development of keratomalacia,
nn extremelv dehi1it.tirw eye ;3erase. .ever!al q+.nMPi2 have ind1icated
that 3 out of 4 of its victims either die, or are left totally or partially
IIIi__i 'TWa HiQ_ni _ ri'nmi-rc mne-+. no....rm vnlw,1r nvwA -a Tea.aat ro4nr 1 7gv rf
hi -n-. Tedeso s.m..ost cn- - ..^-,y n".d s -.s severe in chi-en "
5 years of age, especially boys. Its prevalence in Bangladesh is such
t.hn+. r'xf' Aornv.y cflA hiwar usnder age < +h-A~ +,. t^s m95 s^s +.
totally blinded by vitamin A deficiency.
20. Preformed vitamin A exists only in foods of animal origin; the
pl,. I'sitmq ctotAn , 4 BVrtFr Vn+-L WA." Whe% body L t.1ne acti mle
vitamin. Carotene provides the yellow coloriag in most fruits and vegetables.
Both for.ms of nutrient are fat=soluble, and are n.ot properl available to
the body unless a sufficient amount of fat is present in the diet.
21. The body's vitamin A requirements are especially high during
pe iods of grw-*h. T-,"4--i prg-&.y-d atton e,ad o L--eruir
are increased to support the growth of the fetus and replace viatamin A
released in, rilk, T.fe rescoo c-1-4d is -s i ly -rn - -evelop
serious deficiency. After weaning he is deprived of his supply frDm milk
at a i me whLen needUAs for gro--WI A.. are veA-y i1LigL.
22. ,.he ~----T7 intRake of vitamin A isn Bagiadesh is approximately
half the ICNND- suggested "acceptablel intake value of 3,500 Ihternational
Units (ILu) per person per day. uver 70% of Vh-e Lntaoe is obtained from
the carotene in fruit and green leafy vegetables. Intake of these food
sUbgroups does not increase wit'h added in,coamet bow inta ke of vitamin A
is not primarily the result of poverty in this population, but lack of
iiowld of it_ p 5_ort_ance and sou_rees. Low _levels _o_ intake of fat,
contributing only 7% of total calories, may fLrther aggravate an already
-dequa^ in+-k, snce fLat plays a neceas1uA role in the absorption of
vitamin A.
'/ UJAiPUiJ stands f.or u.S. iLterduepartmentai Coux&ttee on Nutrition for
National Defense.
- 6 -
23. * The population's dependence on fruits and green leafy vegetables
for protaetir+A from vitaw4t Aa.r * i 1 4 ir.� r�- c.
z' A~~ ~~~~% A J..W c C6 A.-J-I LU L~I r V gLre
There is a close correlation between the total intake of vitamin A in each
season, and the i4+5t0e of 4r'4ts and leafy. vs'--'-'-'- ConsuminEonl f
green leafy vegetables is fairly uniform throughout the year, but the quan-
tities eat-en ra- so smal- +t+ a t no 4 Ah -P 4a v tLAef.,..
or "low" plasma concentrations of vitamin A and carotene. In the fruit
season ornly 1 % of the population sh- such low concentrations. During
the period when fruits are not readily available, this proportion slawly
rises ag4an to h0%0 KYeratoalacla is found in a"' seasonas of the year,
but its prevalence also varies seasonally. A review of the 1962-64 records
at the Dacca M?edAcal Cl11age T%,8 t4rC -I, w . theI ----I &. -o al
W 'a In J. -U . muthep�tpuuLW1io 04. a.L
cases seen which were diagnosed as keratomalacia ranged from 0.519 in the
,l-st seasnsr +4v 1 f0lt 4- the posamars.ov. - periud*
24. Th.e most deficienL segment of the pop-uation is growing boys;
over half have ltdeficientfl or "low" plasma concentrations of vitamin A.
Females are more deficient d-ring pregnancy and lactation; successive cycles
of pregnancy and lactation are so frequent that adult females may not be
able to repl body- ru 0s vres A on wa's iow intake. As a re-
sult, women who are neither pregnant nor lactating are more deficient than
adult mles.
25. The patteLrn of finds (low intake, unrelated to income, dependent
on leafy vegetables and fruits in season, with greater deficiency during
c hid.hod ard pregnancy or lactation) leads to a broad general conclusion:
there is little realization in the population of the sources or the importance
of Wtis nutrient. INo -understanding exists of the consequences of Vitamin
A deficiencyi the prevention of keratamalacia, or the special needs of
pre-school chlOdren and adult women. Prevention of the problem should
be relatively straightforward, and the foods sources involved inexpensive,
if thILe pop-ulatlon were aware of the nature of the problem and its conse-
quences. Such education is a long-term process so that interim measures
are needed. Tnese include the development of incentives to spur production
and consumption of fruits and vegetables, and the development of vitamin-
rich food supplements which could be made available to the most vulnerable
segment of the population, the pre-school child.
26. In a population existing on an inadequate diet multiple deficiencies
are more common than deficiency of any single nutrient. For example, kera-
tomalacia is often found in association with kwashiorkor. The prognosis
in protein deficiency is considerably worse in the presence of keratomalacia;
children with both are far less likely to recover than children with either
condition alone0 Pronounced clinical evidence of these conditions is rare
in children over five years of age; deficiencies are most critical in the
post-weaning period. Seasonal comparison of the prevalence of kwashiorkor
and marasmus (Figure 1) with the prevalence of keratomalacia (Figure 2)
-7-
illustrates the multiple nature of most nutritional problems; diets deficient
in one ri4reert are - 4 w. _ +o be d ,i+ 4. - o+h+r nu i+.a 'Ne -
lance of deficiencies of both vitamin A and protein follows a closely associa-
ted seaso.nl t++%,"w " +!hC p^A '+ v-. A4n-o_hWa o1 A44g a g 4 4 2n o4 1A
also follows the same seasonal pattern. Ihteractions between malnutrition
&- rec;s"Aes t +e 4rr4-- t-;le 4+ 4S 141n=? "Sif+
malnutrition increases susceptibility of infectious disease, infection
4 - al P wsn,r I-~ 4vnv%^.,. + -vs. ,y ^,4-,4 -4..4. . ..Pa. .+~ 4v , + 4kx:a A"wmal-.v%mgs,s4 ^- -~
itaW. V -f - A . 4. Co Wt pWWreeii W- faV- .a - &f Jw . of 4f S-
nutritional deficiency.
Riboflavin Deficiency
27. Riboflavin is essential for cell respiration and metabolism.
.~~ - _ 2 . _ ._~ h t1 _ D- _~ _ 1 M _ - _ _._ __
WIll.LtU SO1lUl O1 M TLtLL t 1IallO4L, O. LfeI x LW L.iLw-U3 OIUKIL -LUr -Prese
state of knowledge does not permit us to recognize all the consequences of
ribofILavn deficiency in man. Fl,ods ox O ziii3al originj especially dairy
products, are the best sources of riboflavino Green leafy vegetables and
ripe frUit, though not the richest sourete oW. rioodlavin, contrib3ue SUD-
stantially to the amount available in thie diet of Bangladesh. Riboflavin
intake is very low in this population in all seasons and in all inoome
groups. Intake improves slightly as income increases, for more dairy pro-
ducts are consumed; there is also a mild biprovement during tne fruit
season. However, intake is deficient regardless of season or income.
28. Almost half the population had "deficient" or "low" levels of
urinary riboflavin exeretion, suggesting tUat riboflavin deficiency was
widely prevalent. Clinical lesions usually associated with riboflavin
deficiency were among the most common clinical findings of the survey.
29. Riboflavin performs essential biochemical functions within the
body cells, and the evidence indicates that deficiency is common in Bangladesh.
These two facts are sufficient to point up the need for correction. The
most effective corrective measures center around a more varied diet, for
almost any other food available has a. higher riboflavin content than an
equal dry weight of rice. Measures aimed at correcting protein deficiency,
such as increasing pulse production and consumption, could concomitantly
improve riboflavin nutriture.
Anemia
30. Anemia is a widespread and severe problem in Bangladesh; over a
third of the population suffers from this condition. The great majority
of the anemia found has been classified as iron deficiency in type. The
relative roles of insufficient intake and improper absorption of iron,
excessive blood loss, or parasitic infestation in causing the anemia cannot
be determined from the survey findings and will require further study in
EBngladesh. It is clear from therapeutic trials, however, that additional
iron taken in a readily absorbable form would greatly diminish the degree
of anemia in the region. The most anemic sagments of the population are
- 8 -
women of childbearing age, and growing children. Fbod supplements con-
4ta4-'g 4iorn, to 4heea -.rnle.-ah1 .aiv,s .o.A hel 4o ___
WC6.6A~~~~~~.s ~~~~W..P __&P_ ww~~~~~~~~AJ &Lsl.J W.s aJ..L V.
the degree of anemia. Ultimate long-term improvement may require greater
avr;lior, +_ -a4ta40r4; - --A 4U- cortro +,' -aii -84^ise%UPsoh
a vw Unk*dJ.WJAA WU.J I0 UJ ZJ A AS WA .J* I I.WA JA.& VA, 1J6LCL d.~J6VL.L A.4A.%L.~ - 'tU.LIJIAe J JLIJ M SIA2ML.C
interviewed in the pediatric study, over 50% stated that their children
,_de #4i.a- yea-rs of. n ag haA Iw"s,nfn!"
W- .A ...,4,. .,a--a, I in .. -~ ,.4 'I +1 ,rma-A -rla-,A 4a I I.,l..
u^vs ~~~~~~~~W w ww;l- W&J WH 4 Q UQ"MA.
the result of iodine deficiency. Other causes may include goiter-producing
~....4,.,aa. 1 +.a,.a..a 4. -h A4a-+ -4.a..a,,r+ -,r -,A -,a41-. --,A -..11-i
.JkL&UP %IWJLA..O ~-0V~ Ak WAA%W '4 .3 in, .I.aU hi.....&& D Oia . -.~A~ in .L.A.Q, "LLk.A J.J.LU-A
tion of water by human or animal excreta. Regardless of etiology, endemic
gote.- ca, us-'ly le p,-sventA by 4Ieasg 4'-1 4in4t,ak eP 4-44-. a4-1,
to replace the deficiency or to overcome the effects of goitrogens, excess
.Lul,eI '.LUL.d, or pJoLULio.LVLL*
n^ flM. a.�' L1... .J- J....ALJ ~ JL. .1 Am
3. JLLD SV L>t LUWLU 'wU t a Ls-4.i Leauntv propor-LtionLoi of tWe PUoU� db.LVIL
studied had a visible goiter. This prevalence was higher than would be
- __ -~ ~.V . IJ. __ 2 J_ ..L - --
expected .Ln a popALLaI'.J.f rLLot i. n.LV.JgLL .i. aIIU. La a resl' f1a frm the sea.
Studies of the cause of goiter in Bangladesh are needed; prevalence patterns
and the distribution of certain 'igh-prevaience pockets of goiter suggest
that the etiology may be more than simple iodine deficiency. Mastard oil,
the major cooking oil in 1angladesh contains goiter-producing agents which
may play a role in causing this goiter, although it is not yet proven
that the heated oil as usad in thea kitchnen retains its go0trogunic proper-
ties in the quantities used. Lack of such studies, however, need not prevent
the development of corrective measures to proviLe iod'ine to the population;
as previously mentioned, increased iodine intake will prevent the development
of endemic goiter regardless of other etiologic considerations. Furthermore,
studies on urinary iodine excretions in a high-prevalence pocket of goiter
in Mymensingh district indicate that iodine deficiency is clearly a problem.
33. Sea salt in Banglaaesh is known to have a lower iodine content
than the rock salt mined in 'West Pakistan. A program to iodize salt would
significantly reduce goiter prevalence in Bangladesh.
Vitamin C Deficiency
34. Vitamin C (ascorbic acid) is needed for the proper formation of
connective tissue, and for integrity of cellular structure within the body.
Deficiency leads to delayed wound healing, bleeding of gums, and eventually
to scurvy. The nutrient is destroyed by improper cooking.
35. Dietary data indicate that there is sufficient vitamin C in the
raw (uncooked) diet in Bangladesh to prevent deficiency. However, biochemical
and clinical evidence ehows that sme 10% have a subclinical (biochemical)
deficiency and 3 to 4% have early clinical signs of deficiency. Fall-blown
scurvy was not seen in the survey population, but is occasionally seen in
hospitals, such as the Dacca Medical College Hospital. Nutrition education
aimed at instructing the population in ways to preserve the available
vitamin C in the diet is very evidently needed to prevent further deteriora-
tion of vitamin C status, as well as to correct the degree present in the
population now.
-7-
Rickets and Osteomalacia
36. Rickets is the result of a deficiency of vitamin D. Because
tirus nutrient is synthesized in Tne sidn upon exposure to sunlight, dietary
intake was not estimated. Vitamin D increases the absorption of calcium
and phosphate from the intestine, and is therefore necessary for the forma-
tion of normal bone. Deficiency of vitamin D and of calcium in the diet
can lead to rickets in children, or to the adult equivalent, osteomalacia.
37. in the survey population, skeletal abnormalities indicative of
rickets were found in only one child. The population's supply of vitamin
D can be considered adequate. clinical determination osteomalacia requires
X-ray study and was not undertaken. Indirect evidence suggests that this
condition may be a problem in adult females, but its scope cannot be deter-
mined from survey findings. Dietary data suggest that calcium intake is
low. Fflrther study is needed to determine the impact on growth and development
and health during childhood, pregnancy and lactation.
Beriberi and Pellagra
38. Beriberi is caused by a lack of thiamine in the diet. Clinical
signs suggestive of thiamine deficiency (bilateral edema of the leg, loss
of ankle jerk, calf tenderness) were seldom found in the survey population.
Since each of these lesions can be caused by diseases other than beriberi,
the small number seen may be the result of other conditions. Ih Bangladesh
thiamine deficiency is not a serious problem at present, but as milled rice
becomes more generally available, thiamine intake may fall to levels low
enough to represent a threat.
39. Inadequate intake of niacin leads to the development of pellagra.
The disease is found almost exclusively in population suosisting on maize
diets. The population of Bangladesh showed no clinical evidence of pellagra.
Urban Nutritional Status
40. The urban dietary pattern shows a better balance in food intake
than the rural pattern. The dietary data from urban locations is inconclu-
sive because of seasonal and climatic factors which affect it quantitatively.
Taken in conjunction with clinical findings, however, there is a distinct
nutritional superiority in urban areas. Notable differences between urban
and rural populations were seen in the weight data where the urban male
was slightly heavier than his rural counterpart while the urban female
was considerably heavier in percent of l"standard weight" than any of the
other groups.
41. Of the major nutritional problems found, only goiter was more
common in the urban population, and thar. only in males; vitamin C deficiency
was of equal prevalence in both populations. Analysis of food costs informa-
tion suggests that the better balanced diet of the townsman would cost the
- 10 -
villager no more than the present rural diet, with its heavier dependence
on rice. Poverty alone does not account for malnutrition; the impact of
malnutrition could be lessened through a program of nutrition education
stressing the value of the more inexpensive protective foods, coupled with
plans for increased production of these foods.
Recommendations
42. The following steps are of special importance to control and
warrant the most serious nutrition deficiencies:
(a) For the alleviation of protein malnutrition rice
should be supplfmented with more pulses and animal
protein (mainly cheap fish) in the diet. An
urgent consideration of the Ministries of Food,
Agriculture and Fisheries should be the determination
of the means by which (with relation to production,
trade, price policies, etc.) it would be possible
to increase the supplies of fish and pulses and in-
crease their consumption.
(b) Increased production of fruits and green leafy
vegetables (rich sources of provitamin A, riboflavin
and vitamin C) should be emphasized. Education
campaigns for the increased consumption of these
products should be undertaken.
(c) Emphasis should be placed on the consumption of oils
other than mustard oil, and a market for these oils
should be developed. Production of such oil seeds as
peanuts and soybeans should be promoted. The resulting
protein-rich defatted flours may be considered for
use in human nutrition.
(d) Establishment of a Nutrition Institute in Bangladesh.
with a well-equipped nutrition laboratory has priority.
Such an Thstitute would have the responsibilitv of
conducting research on those problems affecting the
nutritional health of the various ponulation groups
in Bangladesh. It would also have as its responsibility
to hael bridae tha aan between agorieulture and health;
and to set standards for food processing and distribu-
tion. The nucleus for a Nutrition Tnstitute ecistq in
the University of Dacca where the Biochemistry Department
has a trained cadre of research and extension personnel-
(e) A comnrehensive nutrition survey shnuld be under taken
every ten years. In this connection the next nutrition
survey should be done over the period 1973-197)4- This
survey should take account of sample studies sponsored
by +he TTnniAA Nations: ,RelijefP CernrAo.tn in naGn =
BANGLADE3H
INTAKE OF FOOD BY FOOD GROUPS IN 17 RURAL LOCATIONS AND IN 5 URBAN LOCATIONS
� �6-2__
G.rams/Person/Day
Food Grou All Population_ Rural Urban Percentage of the Total
Cereals 526.5 536.9 363.7 63.0C
Starchy Roots 54.1 55.5 31.6 6.51
32gars and Sweets 7.7 7.4 11.7 0.5%
Pulses and Nuts 27.9 28.0 26.5 3.3%
Vegetables 134.6 134.6 134.4 16.2%
Fruits 1o.6 10.2 17.5 1.3%
Meats 6.5 5.7 19.4 0.e8%
Eggs 1.7 1.6 2.5' 03%
Fish 33.3 3208 41 .9 4.G%
Milk and Milk Products 19.4 17.3 53.2' 2.3%
Fats and Cils 6.7 6.2 13.7 0.8%
Misc. Mixed Spices _ 4.9 4.6 1 0.0 0.6 1
Total 833.9 84,0.9 726.1 100.0% D
Number of Persons 141,736 10,599 41,37
Saurce: Nutrition 3grvey of East Pakistan (1 963-64) - Average of the rural. and urtan intades given at pages 7'> and
- 107.
BA NGLADESH
OSERVED AMD D1ESIRABLE LEVElS OF PER CAPITA NUTRIENT INTAKE
Nutrient RIural _iban
Xb88; ;= Desr=ai- WbSeiD we
Mlories ;2,251.0 2,150.0 1,73:2.0 2,130.0
Protein (gm) 57.5 161.5 49.5 61.'7
Fat (gm) 17.7 - 2%.0 -
Carbobydrate (gin) 476.&0 , 327 .0
Calcium (mg' 304.0 4Ij94.o 2215.0 1482.0
Ironi (NO) 9.7 12.1 l8.5 12.2
Vitezd.n A (:[.U.) I,59().O 3,0!,7.0 I,795.0 3,036.0
Thiaidne (mg) 1 .47 0.815 I .03 0.835
Ribof lavrin i(mg) (.53 0.86 o.54 0.835
Niacin (mg) 22.8 14.2 114.3 14.1
Vitamin C (tag) 39.6 28.5 38.5 28.8
Rural sample of 10,';99 persons; Urbam saJple of 4,1137 persons.
Source: Nultrition Survey.
BANGLADESH
PATTERNS OF FOaDQRAIN C(NSU1PTION
Household Income Amount Consumedi Prop2ortion of" Total Ihtake
(Rupees/mo.) . z. ersc _ Pcen
High Lmr Averagpe Bun:Wei Calories Protein
A. In Itural. Areasl/
0 - 99 26.6 '4. '17.8 65 90 75
100 - 199? 24.3 15.2 18.9 62 84 68
200 - 299? 27.2 13.95 '19.4 64 81 63
300 - 399 30.1 12.0 21.8 60 82 66
40o - 49'3 29.3 11.9 21.8 62 83 64
500 & Above 30.6 14.3 23.0 67 81 67
Average 18.9 64 84 69
B. In lJrban Areas3/
0 - 99 12.5 10.3 11.5 S1 74 58
100 - 199 14.8 12.0) 13.3 55 '76 57
200 - 2919 14.3 10. 9 12.2 50 '71 52
300 - 399 16.2 11.() 13.4 51 '74 56
400 - 49,9 17.0 9 2 11.4 45 6$3 47
500 & Above 13.7 10.7 12.1 41 66 47
Average 12.8 50 74 54
1/ From tlutrition Sarvey of East PaicLstall, March, 1962 to January, 1964, aL report by the MLnisltry of Health, Govern-
ment of Pakistan, in collaboration with the lUniversity of :Dacca ancd the Nutrition Section, 0ffice of' Iternational
Research, National Institutes of Heallth, publi-shed by the 'U.S. Department of Health, Educat-ion amd WVJelfaLre, May, 1965.
2/ Information on household income in cash and ki.nd revealed -that approxinately 85% of rural households earned
less than 7?s 200 per months, and only 5.4 earned Rs 300 or more per month. Highest incoae familiLes (Rs 500 cr more
per month) consti-tuted only 1' of this randoml.y selected saumple of the rural population.
3/ The incomre structutre of the urban population differed markedly fronn that Of' the rural population. >5% of urban tD
households earned less than Rs 200 per month and 27;9 earned Rs 300 or more per month. Highest income famili.es
(Rs 500 or more per month) constituted 13,i' of the urban population,
Figure 1
SEASONAL PROTrIN CORRELATIONS
40.0 F 1
35.0p / N%NL
- I I I
1�.01 -intake of Pulses
E %Prevalence Kwoshiorkor anu Morasmus .
60.Or 1Children under5yrs.
550 \soL x %of Plasma Levels .40 J 4.5,D
I 11
O | 8! \ ~~~~~'Def icient'or"Low- 00 VA |
�45.0k l 13.
C, 40.0P-Vi oW' of P u 's
e~~~ ~~~ under 5 yrs 15.0l#/fE g i;
v 2~~~~~~~~5~
55 3.0L VAlde 44.5 V
2 45.0k /
200 U. v-i 0 U wyj,.C'
I IVAI I I I 1I .
Dec.~Ol Vio. Fb Mr.A . May jun juy Ag et c o.Dc
-~ a A VA A V15
SEASONAL VITAhIN A CORRELATIONS F.gre 2
� 50.0} _
t 45.01 A/t- 2800
E AA.0 Al 3>14o
a '
3t 25.0 13200 0
E 40.02 800 0
400t 7X ]ihKeao2lco(mnhl00~ ~
�35.01 __%ofPsmLees; e
c ~ ~ ~ I 12000
U- I !
15.0.) J/ 4003
I I. V9'in Inak
U-. .
Wc Jo.Fb or p. My JueJl u. -\t c. No.Dc
40. 0 ' % M
3 5.Oj -f Vlasmin ALev ael
3 0.01 1 1
V) V
z U. 0 ~ ~ f oo assOco eia CleeEy lnc
co.OI\ -
_ IO, Z
o 35.01~~~~~~ % of Plasma Levels I~~~~~~~~~1.
4- I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Ja. Fb o p. Ma ue Jl u.Set Ot o. D I
RESTRICTED
INTERNATIONAL BANX FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMNT
INTERNATIONAL DEV3IOPMENT ASSOCIATION
BANGLAJESi
LANiD AN1i wAcRiES KUULiC.SS SCTOU SLTUDY
VOLUME IX
SUPPORTING PROGRAMS
TECHNICAL REPORT NO. 29
THE POWER SYSTEM
December 1, 1972
Asia Projects Department
1BAwNT.An1_ - tSECTOR STUD=
VOUJME !X - SUPPORTING PRORIMS
TEwP ,rrPAT. RpnpRT NO. 29
Wum Pamtw S_Sq-T /
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page No.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ......................0..... .........1i
I. THE SIMULATION MODEL .....0000000000000000000000000000000 1
A. SystemDeiiin............................... 1
no enLJra-A. Is&o 0 L W^Aml 00 000 00
7'? A %"In OI I 13t A i k f~~
.1.r.WftV,1Nui rvzv '370"ALW WMjuj JJAND.ALhy ~ 00606000
A* .LA0G. r"^vrecastU L O *00000000000000000000006* 6- - - - -
B. Existing and Potential Generating Capacity .oosoe..oo5
Cj. z4yu.rvLJe.LuIroL x i "es .....LUO 00000 ooooeoo.... @o -w ..... 5
D. EHV Transmission ....................... ......o. 6
E. FSuel Cost *0000600000060000000000000000066000060000000...... 6
F. Operation and Maintenance Cost *oo*ooo.ooooooooooooooo 7
G. Econo0m-ic Parameters .............................
II. Al! At' AMIA;"-v-rS .....*@*********@@@@
A. East-'wiest LUnAe z-noto ...............................
B. Rooppur Nuclear Development ....*oooOooooOO**ooooeo*00 9
C. Unit's NWnber 4 and --ber it 4Kapt.a. 090.40.......... 10
D. Use of Indian Coal ....... ............................. 11
Ei. Now r-nermal Ge-nata6 n FE11asiB...............................
A. Coss of Agriculture rumpUa U ................. .L.1
B. Dispatching on the Basis of Economic Fuel Prices 000o. 12
List of Tablas
10 Bangladesh Electric Power yrstem - ied.ian Load Forecast
2. BangLades- Thermal Power Sastions - Wd.stbag and Under Construction
3. Bangladesh Thermal Power Stations - Potential New Installations
-I el. sA. oA ML- r=9 ....Ltjx ^_ -.. W_".& ML - . A~.L J
&4o.1 IjU b UL 8tJ of 1.JJl O& City - Lw-uhi, Q'W>u Sta"Mions
4.2 Cost of Thermal Generating Capacity - Combined-Cycle Stations and Gas
relport -rs prepaUred UV uJ JA. DlU-J I. Un0UbrJ IinLVrLvaL Ud Lveyrsi
5. Monthly Energy and Peak Capacity from the Kaptai Hydroelectric Stations
6. Fuel Prices for Bangladesh ELectric Power System
7. Generation Equipment and Tran9mission Line Program 1.IE
8. Smuary of Generation Equipment and Transmission Line Program 1.4E
9. Summary of Generation Equipment and Transmission Line Program 1.5E
10. Generation Equipment and Transmission Line Program 1.1W
11. gnmiary of Generation Equipment and Transmission Line Program 1 .4lw
12. Generation Equipment and 'Transmission Line Program !.II
13.. Generation Equipment and Transmission Line Program 1.2I
14. Summary of Generation Equipment and Transmission Line Program 1.4I
15. Summary of Generation Equipment and Transmission Line Program 1.5I
16. Summary of Generation Equipment and Transmission Line Program 1.6I
17. Marginal Cost of Energy (Tks/KWH) for Agr_cultural Pumping under Plans
1.4E and 1.4W (No Interconnection) for Economic Fuel Prices and Foreign
Exchange Rate of 4.76 Tks/$
18. Marginal Cost of Energy (Tijcs/KWH) for Agricultural Pumping under Plan
1.4I (Yiterconnection in 1980) for Economic Fuel Prices and Foreign
Exchange Rate of 4.76 .TIcs/$
19. System Operation for 1980
F'igures
Figure 1 Market Areas Defined for Simulation Analysis of the Bangladesh
Power System
Figure 2 Value and Cost of the East-West Interconnector (EWI) at Alternative
Discount Rates and Fuel Prices for a Foreign Exchange Rate of
4.76 Tks/$ (present worth in 1972)
Figure 3 Value and Cost of the East-West Interconnector at Alternative
Discount Rates and Fuel Prices for a Foreign Exchange Rate of
9.52 Tks/$ (present worth in 1972)
Figure 4 Value and Cost of the Rooppur Nuclear Installation at Alternative
Discount Rates and Fuel Prices for a Foreign Exchange Rate
of 4.76 Tks/$ (present worth in 1972)
Figure 5 Value and .ost of Kaptai Units No. 4 and No0 5 at Alternative Discount
Rates, with and without Interconnection, for a Foreign Exchange
Rate of 4.76 Tks/$. Values are the same for Economic and Financial
Fuel Prices (present worth in 1972)
Figure 6 Value and Cost of Kaptai Units No. 4 and No. 5 at Alternative Discount
Rates, with and without Interconnection, for a Foreign Exchange
Rate of 9.52 Tks/$.and Economic Fuel Prices (present worth in
1972)
RNCT,T.AlFT.R-T - ErVnPR RTY
UTTIMP TY _ ZTTPCWIPTJN. P1P(Y.1 APMq
TECEMM".t A T Pv33P.RT NO. nn
J.IALL"J.J1J V WJLV AhAl ..J. ""
,LIX * JvUJJL u^Lars
SUMMARY AND CONCUISIONS
of Bangladesh electric power network. The analysis deals with the planning
LLA oper-ation of the p--er syster, nth. p4 a eI.J40raS.devte A gen-
eration and EHV transmission. Details of electricity distribution or
problems r,Lna.er, t LLdgar~L1Li ~.LJU dLLL- -LLaa ar-e n.ot covereU here.
pir Tmhe report tekes as a bencmark the electric poawer sitution in
Bangladesh as it existed in early spring 1971. Information on reconstruction
needs is no' -Al I �nt.o accLo-uL. In -Vew caL LUU s-WuWIIJ�4tia dauge to
power facilities , these analyses need to be revised accordingly. By the
same wtken, beca-use tUe overall econom has bee. severely dis.-upted, demand
forecasts and assumptions about relative prices are also questionable.
Lnerci ore, tLis power seu (;or s'tuuy is orny pr rU-J1.L-J.. It 1UdJy Ub Uz
events will call for2 different set of assumptions about future opportunities
in the po-wer sector._z For example, interconnLrectMion WLth India,- not conVsider-ed
in these studies, would have a significant effect on patterns of system
expansion. rort-unately, With the Uata base anu systmll analysis mouel tha
has been prepared as part of this ector Study, any revision could be carried
out with relative speed and ease at te appropriate time.
iii. mTe analysis falls into two categories: (a) evaluation Of maj'or
investment alternatives and (b) special studies of system operation and of
power inputs to agricultural pumping.
iv. The investment planning questions studied include the economics
of the East-West Interconnector, the introduction of nuclear generation,
the expansion of Kaptai, the use of alternative fuel supplies, and the
selection and timing of additional conventional thermal and hydroelectric
generation facilities. The major conclusions in these respects are:
(a) East-West Interconnector. At current financial
fuel prices--and in the absence of interconnection
with India--the interconnector appears as an investment
j/' This R1eport was prepared by Henry D. Jacoby, Harvard university.
2/ Revised cost-pricing calculations need to be made in the light of the
new eUAxIngu rauz oL KrS Q)LJ tO tne doLlr. These are not included
in this report. Clearly, however, the rate of Tks 7.50 to the dollar
is close to the average of wie - two excnange raes oI Tkcs 4.76 to the
dollar and Tks 9.52 to the dollar used in all computations included
in, ths report.
worthy of serious consideration. When fuel
and foreigr. nxc.J- resources az. p,-icel closer
to their economic values, the project is slightly
m.ore _A++rc+4 . At c.rw..-rt. .s4 es Of co.nst uc-
tion CostS, the Interconnector breaks even at a
d_4s^o.+t ra^ te aro-w d 12S. HOW8-v-er. before aiy-
S -.IJA&A JI ..ILL I r l W-l, LIoL I~d1
investment decision is made on the Interconnector
i+ .aid be assent4-IA to loo'- carefully novh
feasibility of interconnection with the Calcutta
.ake�.
ILR=i Ikhp- ..acle.ar De.O-VISLOPr.t. V3.6-wed frori,.te
standpoint of the power system, the proposed
P.oopA.r J.AA O -&.L L wovL-ld be a poor ad L loca'L orL1
of resources at almost any conceivable set of
prices and market counditions. Less than ha'l the
expected capital cost of such a facility can be
JlustifiLeCdL oar tLRU Lb.asiLs of its contanibu'.Uon Iwt the
electric power system.
(c) Units no. 4 and 5 at KaPtai. Given current.cost
rEaTes, Vhis Is not arn econoiLeal project.
(d) ~J.6 'sv U.di.a. Iral* .jn the aUsence of.-L t[e, EasL
'dest Interconnector and interconnection with
lcutta, coal imwports froma MIndia might replace
imported oil as a fuel for the Western zone. System
studies show ta-t there woUuld be a net advantage in
opening up trade,in coal. Our preliminary calcula-
tions indicate thaT the economic gaina of coal imports are
not very large, however, so that any decision to
construct coal-handling, facilities should be preceded
by detailed estimates,of (a) cost of ,coal handling
equipment; CD) trends in international oil prices;
and (c) the likely security and costs of negotiated
long-run coal contracts with indian suppliers. If
interconnection with the Calcutta market were feasible,
coal imports would not be likely to prove attractive;
it would be cheaper to import the electric power
itbse'..L
(e) New Tnermal Generating Facilities. Tne striking element
about the current situation in Engladesh,. is that,
with one exception, no new thermal generating facili-
ties are needed until the end of the decade. This
means the investment decisions themselves will not
arise for another two years or so. When the next plant
is planned, it very likely will be an extension of
one of the existing stations in the Dacca region,
and it should be either a gas turbine or combined cycle
unit.
v. Two special studies are reported here--one on agricultural pumping
and one on load-dispatching procedures.
(a) Cost of nergy for Agricultural 3.in&. Data
have been developed on the marginal cost of energy
in the various regions of Bangladesh, ror "on-peak"
periods of the day, over the 15-year planning period
used here. These data can be applied in detailed
analyses of alternative pumping schemes.
(b) Estimation of the Value of Improved System Load-
Dispatching Policies. Currently, load-dispatching
by WAPDA is conducted on the basis of the financial
cost of fuels. An analysis has been make to estimate
the economic gain that might be realized if the
economic value of fuel were taken into account in
system operation. The saving turns out to be very
small in this case.
vi. High priority areas for further study include: interconnection
with the Calcutta market, interconnection with load centers in Assam, deter-
mination of the scope of existing natural gas reserves, analysis of alternative
gas exploration policies, and calculation of economic prices for imported
oil and coal as a basis for power planning.
BANGLADESH - SEriu-. S-LUU.
VVOUTia IA - SUPPuRTIGJ RU-V0AN.
TEC-tI'LCAL REPuOT NO. 29
THE POWER SYSTEM
I. THE SIMULATION MODEL
System Definition
1.01 The computer simulation model used in this Study is a revised and
improved version of an analytical method originally developed by the author
for analysis of the lJest Pakistan electric power system and described in
P. Lieftinck, A. R. Sadove, and T. C. Creyke, Water and Power Resources of
1.est Pakistan: A Study in Sector Planning, Vol. III (Baltimore, Maryland:
Johns Hopkins Press, 159b69). The model has been adapted to Bangladesh as
part of the Systems Analyses Studies financed by UNDP, sponsored by the
Bank and being carried out at the Harvard OBnter for Population Studies.
1.02 In applying the model to Bangladesh, the power sector has been
divided into four markets, as shown in Table 1.
(a) The Northeast market (NEST), including Comilla
and all load on the 132 KV line running to the
Northeast region of the country. Were there special
interest in the transmission link from Dacca to this
region, it might prove desirable to consider the
far northeastern load centers as a separate market.
For purposes of this sector study, however, these
load centers are not considered, and it is possible
to avoid the complication of an additional market.
(b) The Southeast market (SEST), including all demand in
and around the city of Chittagong. The Southeast
is connected to the Northeast by a 132 KV link.
(c) The Northwest market (NWST), which includes every-
thing along the proposed 132 KV link from Ishurdi to
the north.
(d) The Southwest market (SWST), including all demand
in the vicinity of Khulna and Jessore and other loads
along the 132 KV transmission line south of Bheramara.
Each of these markets, naturally, has a certain amount of generating capacity,
and each offers possible locations for future system expansion.
1.03 In addition, a fifth generating site is identified in the analysis.
.LL .A.o ULAW V.L%;UIJ.LLL 0.1. U.L imsud"V.aLLf adUL �UAAULL% . d.UJL L . -ULL;-LUUU5 bIItU S2LT.eS 01
the existing Bheramara station, the planned North Bengal station, and the
=uU d lucat.on of the OukJIJU- r1ucLearL davolofmenlet. In '-th discussion
that follows, this region is identified as "North Bengal" or (NBEN), and
.1.0� ~JLVLU 1L.I 1.t .L -0 LaL-U IA d~d L. LL IlkA & tod.LL dLJLJ a maIIVK- '- WthL
.Lo I oA_Iv- _n_ _i0: as; a __ J a eL _:v__ 1__V X, W *sL
zero demand of its own.
Ciaracteristics of the Simulation Model
1.04 In order to facilitate interpretation of the data requirements
andu anal.ylcal res ]'Itos preser.ted beClo-w, O .-e decito. o 'A-healy-
alILL dID..1.JUJ.L.dJ L~~u.La ~ u~ .uw dL U�.LJ-%.5 JU. U .1. w�LU wuLa��yu La
method is in order. The simulation begins with a projection of electric
powIer 6-Ide. L -.1-.d 4nac O of.12 0..e 4LO JLIJa.L fl U nfo. lsa U.LOU .LU LVq1uA.L-uu 011 WMr aldaUcLUy,
efficiency, fuel price, 0 & M expenditure, and capital cost of each existing
a..d potential theral ad n.uclear geer.eating facility. -ilarly,- t-e capital
and 0 & M costs of existing and potential hydroelectric developments are
r.eeded, a.Ung Wo.. W-L"' J.'- I1J,n1LL ULLJ patternsLULA VL of capacity ardLL eILULrgy VuL.-JUU.
Fbr every proposed intermarket transmission scheme, data are required on the
carr-ying capacities of each ouf thLe t.arnsL.ssion lVns, along with appro-
priate cost information. FPinally, the model requires ranges of values for
~UU1A1ILLJ ~IJ.d.Ii~ � ~LL.A da A.LO LLAUA s~, foreIgn. .L1 ex,u di-- d.LUIU
eco .rc paramete.-rs sue' as discount rtow L Joe-l excan6t 1ra'OS, ar.d IueLI
prices.
1.05 Alternative electric power investment programs are defined as
!!equivaer,t!!-hen eac --21''1 ee proJcte de-ar gro"t ir a' ,Wrk
with an acceptable standard of service quality. Fbr any investment plan,
several altWrnative opeting schmeUs 1UClV UV oUOWed. 'Thi computer Simu-
lation program is used to calculate indicators of the relative economic
attractiveness of eacn comD'iaion oi invesumaent plan and operating policy.
1.06 Tne evaluation cm each alternative plan is accomplisned in Two
stages. First, a detailed simulation of system expansion and operation
is conducted over some planning period, 15 years in this case* Because oI
the strong interdependence between the various system components at any
-point in time, an approiLduabion of thLI results OI nuurrly and daily dispatcn-
ing of generating units must be calculated to estimate the fuel costs
ULIL U.~1L I p8*
incurred in each month or season. of Ine pLl�ULng periLoU. ris calculation
is based on a linear programming procedure. The computer program combines
wniese Ue.1 costl data with capi.Laa anm 0 & M expenditures to produce an
estimate of the present value of total system cost over the period of analysis.
mhis simulation of daily system operation is aiso the source of information
about the magnitude and timing of power transfers among the different markets.
1.07 Oamputation costs are reduced significantly if the dispatching
calculation is carried out on a seasonal rather than a monthly basis. A
special set of computer runs demonstrated that, for this system, results
based on a. quarterly load dispatch are not significantly different from
one using a monthly calculation. Thus, all studies reported here are based
on the quarterly time unit. A sample computer run is attacned as TaDle I .
- 3 -
1 .08 The second stage of the procedure involves an adjustment for the
influence of different investment programs on systen cost in the years
beyond the planning horizon. The "plan period" is the portion of the
future that is simulated in detail, and at the end of this period there
is a collection of assets that is passed on beyond the horizon. The form
of the final asset structure differs according to the particular investment
pattern being analyzed. This difference is reflected in variation in the
cost of meeting system electric demand in the years of the more distant
Suture. The effect of differing terminal conditions is approximated by a
set of simple functions, and the computer results are adjusted to account
for this effect. The resulting estimate of total system cost is then the
basic datum for comparison among alternative investment plans and differing
system operating procedures.
II. PLANNING FOR SYSTE4I rGROWTH AND IMPROVEMENT
A. Load Forecasts
2.01 Uhder the conditions of Bangladesh, load forecasting is at best
a speculative activity. Fortunately, some of the choices under study are
not heavily dependent on the rate of load growth, and many useful results
can be reached despite considerable uncertainty about future load levels.
2.02 All the results presented in this Study are based on a load
projection prepared by Acres International, Ltd. and named the "median"
forecast. The projection shown in Table 1, is based on assumptions about the
rate of population growth in Bangladesh over the next 15 years, and on
a relation between population and electric power demand that might exist
under normal economic conditions. The resulting forecast represents an
overall rate of load growth of a little less than 15% per year.
2.03 Based on analysis of previous load experience conducted by Acres,
the monthlv load factor in each market of the sYstem has been assumed to
be 0.623. The value of 0.623 is assumed to hold over all months of the
planning period. Tn addition. the monthly peak nower demand as a propor-
tion of the demand in August has been found to be the following:
January .86 July .958
Flbruary .80 AAugust 1.000
March .831 September .973
April .863 October .955
May .893 November .939
June .926 December .923
2.04 Perhaps even more uncertain than the rate of load growth is the
expected delay before economic conditions return to normal. It is reason-
able to assume that, once the economic life of the.. country revives, it
will again experience a rapid increase in power demand. This starting
point is difficult to anticipate. Asked in terms of the choice that must
be made in these system studies: when can it be assumed that Bangladesh
load will return to the levels experienced in the autumn of 1970? As
appled in this analysis, the tqmedian' forecast assumes that the Bangladesh
power demand will return to levels experienced in 1970 by the year 1972,
arid that load growth proceeds apace from that point onward.
205 If there were investinat decisions that appeared to be sensitive
to the rate of load growth,, it wold be possible to conduct the analysis
on the basis of alternative assumptions about the expected rate of increase
in demand. For example, it night prove desirable to assume that the rate
of growth implicit, in the i"mediani" forecast was satisfactory, but that this
growth did not begin until 1973 or 1974. It does not appear that there is
any major choice under study at the present time that would be significantly
influenced by such a delay in the reactivation of the Bangladesh economy,
but subsequent results of the overall sector study may indicate that such
an additional analysis would be useful.
2.06 Another way of looking at these system studies deserves mention.
under normal conditions, the analysis of power investment plans is related
to specified calendar years. In the Bangladesh case, however, it is difficult
to interpret results in these terms, because of uncertainty about the duration
and depth of the present crisis. In this circumstance, it is helpful to
consider the results in terms of "years of system demand", i.e., to think
of alternative additions to system capacity as being initiated during any
calendar year when the demand in the system reaches a particular level.
2.07 The economic analysis of key investments can be interpreted in a
similar manner. In the case of the Rooppur nuclear development, for example,
it is reasonable to say that, for demand levels and relative prices used
in this study, the project does not look'attractive. This resualt holds
regardless of the precise year in which particular demand levels are reached.
No doubt same results, for example, the economics of the East-West Inter-
connector or additional units at Kaptai, will be influenced by the precise
calendar years in which certain events are assumed to occur. But the results
will not be affected dramatioally. A project that is marginal is likely
to remain marginal under a variety of assumptions about demand growth, and
an invesltent that looks favorable under the assumptions made here will continue
to look attractive under a variety of economic conditions. Fortunately,
there is no major investment decision that must be made in the immediate
future, so there should be an opportunity to review the system analysis well
in advance of any major commitment of capital funds.
B. Existing and Potential Generating Capacity
2.08 At the present time, Bangladesh power demand is served by a
n-L-LALUer U& UI=-L%&J.. ge1LeratU.LLg s%O�U.LU�Lt Di. 'V dX--J.Lr,I is �.LZJUy dk U)UrS-
electric installation. For this sector study, the generating capacity
currently eUUist1Ir.g o-r audur const-ruuCAu..w �8 rupru.,i>ud by a sc us. iv
generating stations, as presented in Table 2. Onl,y a number of isolated
uiesel units are omittd from thnis 'ist, and they are not signiJicant in
the planning picture over the next 10 to 15 years.
2.09 As the table shows, each plant is located within one of the five
markets, and each has been assigned a four-character designation. Table 2
also indicates the number of units in each station, the total plant capacity,
and tne key parameters of station fuel cost.
2.-10 As a comparison of Tables 1 and 2 reveals, Bangladesh is richly
endowed with generating facilities. With the exception of a combined-
cycle thermal station anticipated for tne North Bangladesh area, there
is no need for additional generating capacity on the system until around
1960, under the load conditions assumed in this Study.
2.11 For the purpose of formulating alternative generating plans for
the period 1980 and beyond, a number of potential new installations are
considered in this Study. Because alternative investment plans may involve
widely varying patterns of thermal generation--where patterns differ by
unit location, size, or fuel type--a variety of alternative new stations
is used. 'The possible new installations considered are shown in Tables
3.1 and 3.2. Like the existing stations, each has a four character designation
and each is represented by its generating capacity and fuel consumption
characteristics.
2.12 Trhe costs f these potential new units, as estimated by Acres
International, Ltd.,- are shown in Tables 4.1 and 4.2. The steam installa-
tions are considered to be two-unit stations where the cost of the first
unit is higher because it bears the burden of powerhouse construction.
The combimned-cycle installations are also two-unit stations, but the two
machines are considered to be installed simultaneously.
C. Hydroelectric Facilities
2.13 There is one major hydroelectric installation in Bangladesh lo-
cated in Kaptai in the Chittagong region (market SEST). Fbr inclusion
in the simulation analysis, a hydro-station is represented by its annual
and monthly pattern of capacity and energy output. Based on reservoir
simulation studies conducted by Acres International, Ltd., the output
series shown in Table 5 is assumed for these computations. The table shows
output figures for two, three, four and five generating units. At the
present time, two units are in service and a third is under construction;
units four and five are evaluated as part of these system studies.
/ Tne former General Consultants to WAPDA.
D. EHIV Transmission
2.14 The remaining item of system investument to be stiadied is the
poA.ntia.. .,a 0 -st-'st v .+rc-%. v r--a-. nlnnt4r%!ate a 230 KY,
tie across the BrahmAputra--a line that would have a carrying capacity
of- appro 4a ._ 40 Y > e. Acres es+"tes+A place, t'h. c-rost Orf Ehi 5
VA d~p. LV A UUM I..J +4L. ' l.' -�W -. 'a.-_ I ---
facility at $38 million (Tks 181 million) for the Interconnector itself
.nd arn adi o, .44 R- +A 41-14-" fmT9 37 vn4114^y%8 forv 230n vrV c?,ircit i+ k
d.L.1.d.A dLAL U.~lJ~L 4P.'".. a * _,, .--- -~- *.. _ - -_,
transformers, and synchronous condensers. The particular generation and
______: I II~ UtW4 ^-P t-*-4 o n_nl ra;e hnim* o -Q een crn-o
U an:;WL-Lu:a ss on systmso ~W> wOI ._v A -_<v _
fully coordinated with load flow studies being carried out by Acres.
E. Fael Cost
2.15 The financial prices now being charged for alternative fuels used
fo pWr -neaio 4- '.'-.gl>p-s n--e sh~.Tr,in T1nle 6. Tn% th.e r^tero
J.i. FvW: Vw L r,=1LW-LL -&U3&i. A-LI - . s . - . . -- --* -
systems studies, it is assumed that load dispatching by WAPDA managers will
awke ptlace on t=. bai 4'4 t'es fll p4cs1 +heae fn
cial data do not necessarily reflect the economic significance of the use
of .'al-v-t, fouels fo*oe niration 4"2 is de4e oreol
analysis is a set of prices that reflects the national resource cost of a
ton Of petr-ole-w- or a cubic foot of natural gas. UnfVortnately, a detailed
analysis of fuels.and energy policy in the country is not available, and
these power system studies musist rst on. so.me crud assupions about wh.at
the economic value of these inputs may be.
2.16 In the studies reported here, all calculations are done at three
sets of fuel prices. TLe fi.st of th.ese price vrectrs cornsists of f-inancial
data shown in Table 6. The second or "economic" fuel prices reflect the
financial cost shown in wh au Acres
International, Ltd., has performed these calculations, and the resulting set
- m- rn-.-, - IT,& -- 'k - - 4.14. U4, ItC!
of prices asio is shOwmll 1tU V ; L% DUcs WI-MV UI&V
prices differ from the financial ones in that the cost of fuel is cut by
about a third with some variatio!n, betw-eeen th.e dfferent fuel t-ypes. It
is felt that these "economic" prices are a closer reflection of resource
cost than are tne financial data. un the othe hanLd, it riast be adLitted that
the empirical basis for these assumptions is weak and that a more systematic
analysis of natural gas reserves andu fuel csts is of hgig priority for
inproved power planning.
2.17 Given this uncertainty, the third set of prices is designed to
test the sensitivity of the major conclusions to a large variation in the
estimated economic value of Pak Shell gas. The greatest uncertainty among
the different fuels is attached to the price of gas, because there is consider-
able uncertainty about the size and potential industrial use of Bangladesh's
natural gas reserves. To explore the significance of alternative judgements
about the value of gas, all calculations were carried out under a "low gas
price" condition that consists of the economic fuel prices shown in TaDie 6
with the Pak 3iell price lowered to Tks 0.6 million BTU.
-7-
2.18 A major alternative considered in these studies is the possible
import and use of coal from India. Based on data mde avalable by the Bak
Resident Representative's Office in India, it has been assumed that Indian
coal would be available at Wester,n zone power p s ntsd a p.ceof ms 1.8/1
BTU, as shown in Table 6. BEcause comparisons of alternative system de-
velopme-nts are mtade at different vdal-ues of the r-ate of foreign exchange,
it is necessary to estimate the portion of fuel input that represents a
loreign exchange cost. For thiee calcuilations presented here, it is ass-ued
that natural gas has an import component of 25%. The foreign exchange
components of all other Luels shown in Table 6 are based on cale-'atia.nn
provided by Acres International. No doubt high priority needs to be given
to a detailed analysis of the fuel economy of Bangladesh.
F. Operation and Maintenance Oost
2.19 A set of side calculations showed unat, based on the information
currently available on the Bangladesh system, overall system operation
and maintenance cost is roughly the same under all the development plans
studied here. And therefore none of the choices under consideration is
influenced by this element of system expense. For this reason operation and
maintenance costs were not inoluded in the simulation computations. They
can, of course, be introduced if at any future time there are decisions that
appear to be influenced by them.
G. Economic Parameters
2.20 All calculations have been made at three discount rates: .08,
.10, and .15. In addition, all computations have been made at two foreign
exchange rates: the existing rate of �ks 4.76 to4 he dollar and a shadow
rate of twice this amount of Tks 9.52 per dollar.-'
III. KEY ALTERNATIVES
3.01 The analysis is based on a comparison of system costs under a
set of alternative power sector investment plans. These plans have been
prepared in cooperation with the power engineers and economists at Acres
InterTational, Ltd. A variety of alternative investment strategies is
covered by the plans. The strategies encompass different thermal expansion
plans, alternative propgrams for EHV transmission, and variations in fuel
availability.
3.02 Tho seven plans that form the basis of the preliminary studies
reported in this working paper are shown in Tables 7 to 16. First, there
1/ Revised computations need to be made using the new exchange rate of Tks 7.50
to the dollar. These are not included in this report. It can be seen,
however, that the rate of Tks 7.5 to the dollar is about the average of
the two foreign exchange rates used in all computations for this report.
are three programs for the Eastern Grid, on the assumption that the East-
ht .LI U1J.ooUnecwor is not, L.L10 ULL4.%7Ue Il . LI.Lrsu uwo :eLrLL.L AOM one anouturl
in that proaram 1.1E depends heavily on conventional steam equipment whereaLs
&.Z -LUW.ke. Use oLf ,1-..or tas ID&-LJJ.1% cJlU cI,,nJeUd-yu.CL iW lr. Pi.an
1.5E is like 1.4E, only it includes units 4 and 5 at Kaptai.
3.03 The two plans for a disconnected Western zone are shown in Programs
w anld I .4W. ThLese plans differfL. rom one anothe- inL that 1.1 I makes use
of conventional steam capacity and 1.4W introduces combined-cycle units.
3.04 Mhe plans.for the interconnected system are 1.1J, 1.2I, and 1.4I,
t .,I and 1 .6I. Program 1 .1 I installs inew steam-enerating cap.city, all
in the Northeast market, fired by natural gas. Program 1.2I is like 1.1I
i 1is usu 01 COIVenti.onaL steam capciity only iT includes one 1-25 MM plant
in the Western zone fired by furnance oil. Program 1.4I meets growing system
uuirit.nu wi. u1 uiL. use of ne�w gas-twurznts aiu cumbined-cycle plants, ail
located in the Eastern zone. Program 1.5I includes the 100 '.MW expansion
at Uhe KaptUi hyLro developeAnt, -wUer-as I .5I COntainS the Hooppur nuciear
station. A sample year of the actural computer simulation of plan 1.41
4 _ S s L _ A _ --'L en. 1 - -1 ____M_____ .' 'I o. l
i.S attchd a Table 19. AJ other computer runS are are alvlaDle upon request.
V)5 Din aQu-buion -l to nce plans snown nere) analyses nave been made Ior
Wdestern zone on the assumption that all new generating units hive access
to Inaian Coal.
3.06 With siruLation analyses of this set of plans, it is possible
to analyze the key alternatives open to the Bangladesh power sector as
regards expansion of generation and transmission facilities.
A. East-west. mnierconnector
3.07 Tne best overall system plan in the absence of an interconnection
between the East and West zones proves to be 1.4E for the Eastern zone nmd
Program 1 .4Aw for the Western zone. rne prererred program with interconnec-
tion is 1.4I. Program 1.4I has been computed without any costs included
for the capital expense of the transmission line itself. Therefore, by
comparing the two best plans without interconnection against the best plan
with interconnection, it is possible to estimate how much could be paid
for a transmission line across the Brahmaputra that would be a sound investment.
3.08 The analysis of this question is shown in Figuxres 2 and 3. Consider
first the value of the Ihterconnector at the existing exchange rate as
shown on Figure 2. The value of the link is shown both at financial fuel
prices and at economic fuel prices over a range of discount rates from
.08 to .15. The current Acres' estimate of the cost of the Ihterconnector
and related facilities ($46 mil ion) also is shown on the figure. As the
graph shows, the Interconnector looks very attractive at financial fuel
prices. At economic fuel prices, the project is less economical: it breaks
even at an interest rate of about 12%.
3.09 At an exchange rate twice the existing rate., the complexion of
uji p-ro-JectJ -c-u-g,es. Itt As s'4; SioIreI MOM cLGU 4YeI, rlv-& ec-.c Ue
prices, than at the existing exchange rate. The project still breaks even
at around a '12% diScunt; rate.
3.iO It is easy wto x-plain -wy Wic,Wm UUU-U1-.n ofinc furelwl OX.ht&ag;s
rate has so little effect on the economics of the EWI. The "taxes and
duties1 component of the cost of imported furnace oil is relatively highe-
than that of natural gas, and so a correction from financial prices to the
,"economic" prices used here reduces the advantage to be gained by trans-
mitting gas-fired power from the Northeast narkets in the 'festern zone.
if a shadow rate of two tines the current price -of foreign exchange is used,
on the other hand, the gas-fired energy becomes. relatively more advantageous.
Because the Import component of oil is higher tna That of natural gas,
the ability to utilize the gas to serve Western markets becomes relatively
more valuable at the hnigher exchange rate., aB the right-hand side of the
figure shows.
3.11 Figure 3 also shows what happens to EWl if one assumes a very
low price for Pak shel! gas. towering the economic price of this resource
from T7cs 1.2 to Tks 0.6 per milion BTU (holding all other prices constant
at the "economic'1 rates) serves to improve the break-even point for the
Eva by between one and two percentage points. A change of similar magnitude
in the direction of higher fuel prices would have a roughly equivalent effect
in lowering the break-even point for the EWI.
3012 On balance, these studies show the Int.erconnector night be justi-
fied if it can be built for something close to current estimates. K bt
it is not a dramatically attractive one either, considering current uncer-
tainty regarding its cost. Inspection of Figures 2 and 3 reveals that,
other things being equal, a 20% increase in the cost of the line would lower
its break-even point by 2 to 3 percentage points, depending on the foreign
exchange rate. In addition, the opportunity of interconnection between
the Southwest market and the nearby Calcutta market in India might reduce
the attractiveness of the Interconnector considerably. For these reasons,
it is essential to have a firmer basis of analysis before any investment
decision on the Dliterconnector is made.
-. Rocppur Nuclear �eveoprant
3.13 A sit5lar analysis of the difference in cost between plans 1 .aI
and 1.6I yields an estimate of the value to the power system of the proposed
nuclear plant at acoppur. Rooppur cannot be operated without the East-
4est jYUterconnector, and therefore the relevant question is whether this
nuclear plant should be added to the investment program, assuming that such
an intertie is to be built.
3.14 Data relevant to this decision are presented In Figure 4. The
figure shows the value of the facilities to the power system, on the astump-
tion that the cost of nuclear fuel will be tha Tks .0082/WH (1O 72 mill/KWH)
reported by the Pakistan Atomic fnergy C03mission in its Sumnary Report on
the 200 TI Nuclear Station at RZooppur (March 1970). FigurWT4also0shows
the $70 miMlion estimate of the cost of the station used in the Pakistan
Atomic Tiergy Commissionts study. The results are obvious: at the current
- in -
exchange rate only about half the cost of the station can be justified on
the basis nf amvings tn the nnwp-r nvytem_. At a shadnw rate of 9,52) Trp1,a/
the picture is even worse: the savings to the power system only add up to
ahniit one-third nf thA ennta nof the mnulear pn.In,t..
3=15 MHA reasons wh +.he projec+ looks so bad are not hard +t f4nd.
Tlhe facility is relatively large compared to the size of the Bazvladesh
electric p o-rfem., and additinal cap�ta expenditures are required
to maintain adequate reserve for such a big unit. In addition, the station
1tseflf is eA eylqnl. q*.e-pl9V4Vg +vit usd-i-4-- s
Atomic Energy OCmmission study implies a cost per KW over twice that of a
ther,mal plant. of equinvalenit- size.
3.16 T. 4n+ 44S4 4.-&1 cost -,.-- is.not grea4 t B ol. n .
.,. V1*~~~ V .~J *14A0 Ma J %4 'J. 0 oa LVJ.&&B .. -ALVVU rA~CZV& Ut~Lolu 1.J I L~
economic prices used in this Study, the variable cost of energy from a
l~'e,arge~o...4'4 g-r'otz 4-hcnn-t ii"-4 + iS aro" . 2. 4 i /TvPLIT7I /itks,- n I. . AlTrnT1 N A,,
b 6'-~~~ * V .~~LO ~~ lJW~~~ A.. *4 4t..... ILIJVIA %LLLQ *S. I I I4./ fl.ill wvA"IL I
may be compared with the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission estimate of 1.72
m; .1 ..-I 4 +.hfonr1 ^ w + Ad a__I.A, m, a C l0 ,, '1c./, I
~~~~~~~~~~~ S*b IL *- - U..vJ wJ'~ =v aG 6 ct U. o * JC. I fl.Ot 'p,
the nuclear energy is actually more expensive than that from natural -as.
3.17 Of course, there-are benefits from nuclear development other
than those fro. electr4c po %r p^1uc+ An. Al5 UIr are reasonable
revisions in fuel and capital cost asswuptions, and changes in the size
_.A. ~ ~ I %OV J6.LL LUD W vL V V.LA %VX lUU�V IUU� W . 1 vll VImV 4d�L L;U vu
market), that would make the project look more favorable. But these results
t-4c^+^ Vk+h +'k- cs2k-sv in ass--.4or, ___1_4t --;es .,>ks ndot
~ ,~V W.'. %.NoAAOL46 a L.u GaOOUMuJUJ..6LVAL CLJJU U Il LUi OV Ld '~
benefits will have to be very great in order to make this investment appear
A- lJ. L4 i1 JA 4OAAL iLI '.0 .1 U f1&jJ Id.
3.18 . .1ere is a possibili-v-;- o Ad4ng u-vt �iLore LUJU d UV at p ual. Ilyuv-
station. Data on the performance and cost of these machines have been pre-
'a.6 �J UjY Acrea .tLLLUV�11O.U.tJ.V1l. J.ekl .oIIIwLU.)I4 capacity ndey ar.d Irer- tba,It VWLrese
units would contribute to the system are shown in ITble 5; the estimated
C U of.L Whe eAd-Ji_LUIl cU atthe UiL-1-en1i WAUMM16gM ratae .1s iKIS 164 ml-ion.Orl.
3.19 The value of uni t 'No. 4. aniu iNo. 5P depends upon wnewier the over-
all system is interconnected. The value without interconnection is based
on a comparI-son of Prls I L1_E a-dI . 5E (see Tables 8 and 9). The value
assuming the Ihterconnector is built can be found by camparing Plans 1.4I
a..,..3 e,&y 1..... In 4~ _ 4r1% ~ 1~
uu 1.5T. (seeV TalUJes3 I2 arJdU i5). ]iLLe rU.ULUDs for an exchange rate of
4.76 Tks/$ are shown in figure 5. The project is not economical. At an
exchange rate of 9.52 ILs/$, shons in Figure 6, tne project looks sLLgntly
better, but it is still uneconomical.
3.20 It will be noted that the Kaptai expansion is more valuable in the
?abse nee Ir u-LAmon. ThJAs is beecause the additional 10 w I at Kaptai
(which bring almost no additional energy to the system) displace cheap
gas-fired installations that are especialy valuable for serving the high-
cost Western markets when the frterconnector is available.
D. Use of Ihdian Coal
3.21 A special set of computaions using investment program 1.1W provides
an estimate of the potential savings that miLRht be realized in the Western
zone if coal were available from the mines of West Bengal. Preliminary
estimates indicate that Indian coal would be cheaper than furnace oil.
but operation on coal requires the installation of special fuel handUing
facilities at the power Dlant.
3.22 Initial calculations show that the enal cnuld be utilized Tn new
plants at discount rates up to 10%. Revisions in the fuel price estimates
could make coal look eaen more fwvnrnhls; althnnolh the lmnrnvemsnt my not
be great enough to warrant making this a major economic issue except insofar
as it miaht affect tlmitnF nf investment in tha ThtsrGn-nnAectnr- T lntpr-
connection between the western zone and the Calcutta market were feasible,
coal imnorts wold not nrove attrAflt'1US 'Pranimid meon lqtAqnfe%h bet.ween
Calcutta and the Southwest market are so short that system studies would
verv likelA show it. tn he ebhAner tn trnnminit aenftri H tv than +.n trnsnpnrt
coal.
E. New Thermal Generating Iaoilities
3.23 As a glance at Figures 7 to 16 shows, no major new thermaal instal-
In+A on is needed ,im+nl n-wniA 1oR8 n-nAn, +nn mlaai%+A,annAAnmo 4li A nc o
that will arise in planning for the late 1970'e and early 1980's will be
between atern ov-ns4on ased n swIal aa, '-4tS .ersus ewansn.
using gas turbines and combined-cycle units Analysis of Plans 1.1E vs.
I*w Ar S wA * las I ^ n * IT| A1F 1 1 r 4.IA4 n I 4-A^ 4 .4.. 4 ,1 a__ne +4%a
* . J .q . * * Pt 'W S "413~T ~&J I *I1 .5 IO S 614.L ~.Ja%A..A6a1Gwow W WIeu .Lja a.6.i. %.,aoWQ1 %"&
combined-cycle solutions are preferred. Comparison of Plans 1.11 and 1.4I
domran.n+tiravd tht 4.hatae 4i a eea .nat4 aad,van.ta to ae at 4...4g.. -II -
fl~t1flhb~ lAB. C U*~W WA~6 ~ ~ ~. 5J. OCU UAA v aaa VC5; Ut,AL a 0. .LL&5 a4." LAOW
generating capacity in the NEST market after interconnection.
rrr on'rTAT eOrnttMIrv
A. Costs of Agriculture Purping
4.01 Full details on alternative agricultural development plans are
not ava4Ilab,le at th.e present time. e such pla ns are forxrfated, iti -Ll
be useful to estimate the cost of power inputs to tubewel and low-lift
nrnnn tinanho$gmae 4- -rw#- -....4... &Le.- .r.J. M .. .L -- -1
' .".aa vra Jcfiu . - y0-Cao VAs. ManD uuuurj .l Wt.JW puwur DJJLL04.Xo MAUUL
used in this Study yields estimates of the marginal cost of energy by year,
season n th ohne, n 44. 4P .&t. A. fse A.. c ir . J ..r, %_ tJ...
with estimates of the cost of generation and distribution facilities to
nrnRnnn 49 erta*n, tha nnnno.,I- C08t4 a4U.a .r �or- .. p^-g
- 12 -
4.02 Tables 17 and 18 present these data for the Bangladesh power
network. Table 17 shows the cost of additional enerviv from the EHv grid.
in each of the four markets for the years 1972 to 1986 on the assumption the
East-West Interconnector is not built. As the table shows. the cost may
differ between peak and off-peak hours, where the peak hours are defined
here as the six hours of miunamim demand during the average day. (The
costs also differ slightly over the seasons of the year, but this additional
detail is omitted here.) Table 18 shows the results with the Interconnector
coming into servioe in 1980. Notice that these figures are variable costs
of enerer on the high voltaee grid; they do not include capital coats
of generation of the costs of secondary transmission and distribution.
4.03 There are three modes of pumping operation, all of which can be
analyzed usine the data in Tables 17 and 18 alone with the data in Tableai
4.1 and 4i.2 and information on distribution cost:
(a) Off-peak Operation. Eiergy cost for pumping can
be estimated fromdata on the cost of enerer
generated "off-peak" as shown in Tables 17 and 18.
This is then combined with estimates of the cost
of distribution facilities, which differ according to
the nartinular asheme under Rtudy. ,tnne the
pumping is off-peak, there is no additional cost for
eXpansion nf gvmttm g'nerating naM tv.
(h) Tn+iawTvntrAh1i% r ntnna" .. nn Tf i un i, _S + t hp a+Yii
as interruptible load, the approach is the same as
for off-peak operation, only tha ener cost "on-
peak", as shown in Tables 17 and 18, must be taken
int fl+ coor'rllnt.
(C-) )n"_ff,ak nnaY-a+.4tn_, flvst caca+4 ns .t ncs
a c me for the appropriate nwmber of kilowatts of
gen- .- a -n- -n,r.4+,r a i'15 as +h. o nnd off-
peak energy cost and the cost of distribution facili-
+A-es, * lrT cost of aAA4+-A40r2 j.- c
may be estimated from the data in Tables 4.1 and 4.2.
B. Dispatching on the Basis of Eaonomic FPel Prices
4.04 IThe calculations that form the basis of all the results reported
i; _ hMAt II _f +4- _ TT #-14- A- U_ - A or 4-U --4 4A-4 A S_ _|1- __ _
.LJs , WU L._L. %VW XUa �v-wav U OJ WMQW.A wu VOOV%UfWL%LW_ UAIVLU UUv OWLU U W.VCU.
dispatching is conducted so as to minimize the financial cost of fuel.
r'1.- s 4. 4J, fact,- 4.1- basis4 A Ap 0P TJPAfA -spa4 ; % a4 t-4 p- se-4- A
14" L _ .L0 J.L. .. , ULP1 J o Ua.a. IJL TorkijJA %IL UCALA G U IA jJJ L U Lo JILM . Re .
special set of runs was made to determine how much advantage would be gained,
4 ,-.a 4 eowccs,b sacro.-;baiofe ap-opat
JL UA& tow~ %AL. W'J JIIL. U J %"0FC LW.L"L% ~ L UMLKA Ua .L !.L WLm JIJAVkIJLJV.L-. I
econoamic fuel prices. It turns out that the difference is negligible,
UiLU;6 iLs, r.o grealtJ econwA.IM Ic 3.lo is L LI.cdll CLUO WJ UtiAt U_se UL I.L IJL-W
prices in the dispatching decisions. For other systems, of course, this need
not necesbsrily be whe case.
masy;
U AUt Tr A ?W in? S -
I Annual Peak Dcmand in Market*
I _________ ~ (M W )
NEST SEST |NWYST | SWST
_ t _ _ _ J -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~o- ..... _00-. _
1972 1 103 I A'- |I !| 3
1973 ! 12 72 I 17 34
1974 j 140 f 84 I 20 1 39
1975 162 98 24 47
1976 185 112 27 54
1977 2 216 f 130 32 63
1978 j 249 1 50 36 73
1979 286 173 42 83
1OQ(i 1 32{ I A 2
ac, A 7o 2 o 0
1 CM I 14 W, I I
1982 I 430 I 258 I 68 126
)983 4 9 | ?96 | 72 | 144
1984 f 559 j 336 A8 163
1985 635 j 382 192 18
9 86 72 1 434 115 1 210
-Annuol; rr,l . .J.t 0,.
. __ -- . _ _ . _ __ - - __ - _ -_
NAME LOCATION TYPE NCO. C)F TOTAL FUrEL TYF'E FiINANCIAL FUEL DAT6E
. @UNIT"; CAPACITY FUF.L C9ST EE'FICIENICY INSTALLEr:
IAmKETj 1 --~ 1 (MW) (Ti0W.BTU) (BTU/KWH)
I"" _-!S T 1 1- c,S hi r ganj Steamn 3 30 Titus Gas 1.60 16,200 1959
T I 5 : T 4 S iddhirga,nj Stean 1 50 Titus Gas 1.60 l1,800 1970
I*ES S, S:) D Siddhi-gani Diesel 6 7 L. D. O. 8.60 10, 000 1956
-.-ST ASF-11 Ashuganj Steam 2 143 Titus Gas 1.60 9,800 1970
-F ST '.: 'A Shahzibazar G. T. 7 98 Pak Shell Gas 0.90 16, 000 1968
iEST |GO- P 1 Ghorasal Steam 2 110 Titus CGas 1.60 10, 400 1972
S'S:r,S | AI I Fraiishahar G. 'r. z 1% Na ptha 4. 70 16, 000 1967
S, CHJD Chittagong Diesel 11 7 L. .D. 0. 8.60 10, 000 1955
S::;s sr ;I! Sikalbaha Steam 1 60 Furnace Oil 5.22 10, 400 1973
NV'r ST 'T IHt D Thiakurgion Diesel 7 1 0 L. D. O. 8. 60 9, 700 1964
NV ?, .S'I SAID Saidpar Diesel 3 1.1 L. D. O. 8.60 9, 700 19>72
N V.'.S T n2GD Scattered Diesel 4 5 L. D. 0. 8. 60 11, 600
S%VST GOA I Goalpara Steanr 3 12 Furnace Oil 5. 22 2 0, 000 1S55S
.S VSST GOA 2 Goi lpara Stearn 1 4 Coal 7. 00 2 0, 000 1955
S ,,'SST 0OAG Goalpara G. T. 3 2.6 Naptha 6. 10 16, 000 15168 N
SW ST GOAD Goalpara Diesel 7 6 L. D. O. 8. 60 12, 200 19155
SVTST j ;1 LI Goalpara Steam 1 60 Furnace Oil 5.22 10,400 1972
NTEN j' F -'-P IBEhcranr.ara S;eam 2 8 Furna Ce Oil. 5.22 20, 000 1955
----I-- I _ I _.L _
B =:=P M T I
iAIMLy.R 'E LOCATiON TYP NO. OF TOTAL FUEL TYPE INJANCIAL FUELI
UNITS CAPACITY FUiL COST EFFICIENCY
IW _.) .l..1 i 1O6rDTU) , (BTU/KWH)
tNE ST SID5 Siddihirganj 5 G. T. 1 50 Titus Cras 1.60 16, 000
N ES r 00R3 Ghhorasal G. T. 1 55 Titus Gas 1.60 16, 000
NEST GOR4 Ghorasal G.T. 1 55 Titus Gas 1.60 16, 000
7_rT GOR5 Cihorasal Stearn 1 125 Titus G;as 1.60 9,600
NEST i0,R6 Ghorasal Stearn 1 125 Titus CGas 1. 60 9, 600
N,-ST JTG;OR7 Ghorasal SLearn 1 160 r Titus Gas 1.60 9, 500
.: iST GOR8 Gho,rasal Sttearn 1 160 Tltus Gias 1.60 9, 500
NFST ASI-13 |Ashuganj Stearn 1 125 Titus CGas 1.60 9, 600
NFST |ASH4 Ashuganj Stearn 1 125 Titus Gas 1.60 9, 600
NEST ASff5 tAshuganj Stearn 1 125 Titus Gias 1.60 9, 600
N-.EST j ASH15 Ashuganj Stearn 1 12 5 Titus Gas 1.60 9, 600
EST |ASI7 Ashuganj G. T. 2 144 Titus Gas 1.60 9, 500
NES:T J CCI Ghorasai. Com. Cy 2 200D Titus CGas 1.60 9, 500
INES r I C_2 Ghcrasa I Corn. Cy 2 250 Titus Gas 1.60 9, 500
NEST C CC3 Siddhirgaiiij Corm. Cy 2 301D Titus Gas 1. 60 9, 500
INZEST CC4 Ashuganj CO m. Cy 2 400 Titus CGas 1. 60 9, 500
SES'T 'CHI: Chittagong Stearn 1 125 Furnace Oil 5.22 9, 600
SL E ICHt6 Chittagong Stearn 1 125 Furnace Oil 5.22 9, 600
j':;. ST I C '\Ii Saic ur Stearn 1 60 Furnace Oil 5.22 11, 800
NWT S A T Saidpur Com. Cv. z 60 L. D. 0. 8. 60 9, 500
; I'rs ^ LT T,CTr 2 | ! h;il 2 |>! - 1 6(0 r6urnace Oil 5.22 9, 700
- . . ___- ~'.-.-. ...- a-.~~-- *. nww-v _ - .* . __
BANGLADESH TERMAlL POiER STATIONS--POTENTIAL NEW INSTAflATION1
*i.X; '^.';.' ;NA>istE, LOCATION TYPE NO. OF TOTAL FUEL TYPE FINANCIAL FUEL
UNITS CAPACITY lFUEL COST EFFICIENCY
'L(MAW) IWi10613TU) (BTU/XWH)
I -l.
S'N S jl KUL3 ''hu1na Steam 1 30 Furnace Oil 5.22 11,800
SW'S T jKU14 KIhulna Steam 1 30 Furnace Oil 5.22 11,800
DWS'j7 I'l U.tL Khuina Corn. Cy. 2 60 L. 1). 0. 8. 60 9, 500
SWfST IKIJI,KUL6 'rChulna CoTn. Cy. 2 60 L. D. O 8. 60 9, 500
SW S- KUI,7 Ijhulna Steam 1 12 5 Furnace Oil 51. 22 9, 600
NB13EN 'N.B 1 Dherarnara Comb. 4 60 Furnace Oil 5i.22 11,000
I I Cycle
JTB EN N B 5 jBhieramara Steam 1 3 0 Fur-nace Oil 5.Z22 11,,8001
NT BN iNB 6 Bherarnara Steam 1 30 Furnace Oil 5. 22 11,800
NBEN RO I |Rooppur Nuclear 1 200 Tks .008Z per KWH
TABLE 4.1
Cost of Thermal Generating Capacity--Two-Unit Steam Stations
($jKWj
Total Cost*
Uni_ New l l Import
tmw 1 4-,--ITnAditina Component
(Ms! Statior. g Un t g (both units)
30 322 1 218 150
60 275 J 186 128
125 1 250 | 169 1 116
160 J 230 1 156 107
250 J 210 142 98
*'l'lcse clata arc for gas or oil-fired stations. Coal fired
li)its ;-re c.-;1ivl;tte-d ito cost an adclitional 15 percent at c;l..l
mJii t. s (
Cost of Thermal Generating Capacity--Combired-Cycle Stations
and Gas Turbines
($/KW)
COMBINED CYCLE
Costv, Per KWuy
Unit Size
(MW) Total Import Componcn-it
30 j 135 109
100 I 132 I 106
125 1 132 1 106
150 r28 I 103
200 l 128 l 103
GAS TUTRBINE
TT"i+ Size r Gnot Ptr Ww
| Total |Import ComrnpLocnjet
All Sizes 120 1 85
* There are two units cf this size in a combiined-cyrle station.
TABLE 5
Monthly Energy and Peak Capacity from the
Kaptai Hydroelectric Station
12 Units I 3 Units 1 4 Units f 5 Units
Month I MWV |CWH | MW IGWH I MW |GWn I MW I GWI
Jan. 192 152 1142 152 192 152 1242 1 52
Feb. 92 50 142 15� 192 5 | 242 | 50
Mar. 92 44 j 142 144 1 192 144 242 44
APr. 80 140 1115 140 165 1401 2151 40
May I U 4 1 1i5 414I 165 141 21 1 41
T.. - 8- 0 4 A 1 6A 7 1 1 180 2 0 10 8
ItuAZu 0v -Z7 JU UI �01 Q0 IO I. ~j j 00
JU1I 92 1 55 1 142 76 1 192 190 1 242 1 98
Aug 192 56 1142177 1192 19112421 100
Sept. 92 58 1 42 180 1 192 194 1 242 1 103
Oct. j92j 56 142 !77 192 91 2242 1 00
Nov. 92 52 142 152 1 192 1 52 242 52
Dec. | 92 52 142 152 192 52 242 15
TABLE 6
FME PCIMS FOR LCTRIC POWER SYSTEK
Financial Price Economiiic Pricc Percent
(ke/106 BTU) [Ncl Taxes and Inlmportcd
Duties s
fes/10) BTyU)
Natural Gas (NECST) I l
Pak Shell 0.9 0. 5 25
Titus 1. 6 1.2 25
Frurmance Oil I I I
SEST 5.3 | 2.9 | 69
SWST 5.3 3.1 67
NBEN 5.3 | 3.4 67
Napt'ha
SEST | 4.7 3.7 65
S .)VV 6. 1 I t 6 S3
NBEdN ! 7 9 464 4 59
Light Diesel Oil
NEST 8.6 4.5 58
SEST 8. 6 4. 3 58
sws'r 8.6 4. 5 58
NWST s8.6 5, 1 55
I 58~~~~~~
NBEN S. |0 58
Indian Coal (SWST) 1. 8 | 1.2 I 90
Generation Equipment and Transmission Line Program 1. 1E,
(MW)
EASTERN GRID WESTE_RN GRID
'.A~R IDEMAND GENERATION EQPT. rFIR3M D.EMAND GENERATION EQFPT. FIRM EHV TRANS-
I ,MISSIUN
�--____- ___
3 1 165 1 Existina 5,49 477
11L73 Z 9 CHI 1 60 5231
CSID [ 7]
CHI3iD [ 7 ]
197 4 224 KAP3 50 573
J1975 260
1976 297
1977 346
19718 399
1 '79 459
i'~S0 526
1.93i1 602 SID5 50 62 3
19 32 638 GOR3 55 7323
GOR4 5 5
19 33 78c3 ASH3, 12 5 805
' 9.34 895 ASH4 12 5 93 0
1985 10 i7 I ASH5 125 105'5
1-36 - 1155 | AS; 125 i 11di 1 pa tr
UDo Nrnber:z iio 1orackeAs, indlcaLc plant rctiremnelts.
Surnmary of Generation Equipment and Transmission Line Program 1. 4E'
iEAST7ERNi GRID WESTERN GRI]D
YEAR: DMAND GENERA TiC)N ';;QIPT. FIRM DEMAND GENERATION EQP1'. FIRM E{V .TrANS-
-�- - ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~MISSION
1 972 1
(SaLme as 1. 1E)
:980 1 1526 1 573
iQ8! 15 022 | SIID5 o5 1523
19;2 88 GC)R3 55 '733
GC)R4 5 5
1983 '768 ASiH? 144 877
!9S'4 B95 CC1 200 1049
19035 1017 1049
986 1155 CC,2 250 1274
Summnary of Generation Equiprment and Transmission Line Program 1. 5E
EAST'ERN GRID WESTERN GRID
_AP.I DEMAN1TD GENERATION EQPT. FIRM DEMAND GE;NERATIO:N EQPT'. FIRM EIV TRANS-
MISSION
(Sarne _LS i. 1E)
19&0 526 573
19�i 602 KAP4 50 623
1982 J 633 KAP5 50 723
SID5 50
1983 788 GOR3 5 5 833
GOR4 55
198 4 895 M';117 144 977
DeS; 1017 CC1 200 1149
:?3s 1155 1149
Generation Equipment and Transmission Line Progra,m 1. 1W
EASTERN GRID WESTERN G.RID
YEAR DEMAND GENERATION EQPT. FIRM DEMAND GENERATION EQPT. FIRM EHV TRANS-
MI'SION
1i 72 45 Existing 142 112
19.73 51 GOA1 [ 12] B2
GOA2 [ 4]
GOAkD [6]
1974 59BHR8
1975, 71
1 976 811
1 77l 95 NBi 60 142
1 '78 109
;'?79 125
1'3 i 14;4 KUL2 6 0 2 02
1 (? 31 16 5
1"34 1139
1933 216 SAI 1 30 232
1 '4 244 SAI 2 3 0 262
135 277 KU1L3 30 292
!193 O -.) 31 5 KUI4 3 0 3;2 22
No~..e: Number!; in brackets indicate pThnt retirerrmcnts.
Sunmiary of Gencration Equipment and Transmission Line Program 1. 4W
(MW)
._~ _ ___ _- _ ___
l E.AST.ERN GRID v WESTrERN GRID
; 7:!.J j DEMAIND GEN:ERATION ]EQPT. FIRM DEMAND GENERATICIN EQPT. FIRM EHV TRANS-
i�-. MISSICiN
(Same as 1. 1W)
'?,? i \ 125 142
i ,t 1 144 KUL5 60 2 02
193k. 165
!?� 2 189
83 2 16 KUL6 60 262
91084 244
1385 277 KUL2 60 322
986 3 115
Generation Ecuiprnent and Transmission Line Program 1. 1 I
I EASTERN GRID WEST'ERN GRID
A:;R IDEMAND GENMERATION EQPT FIRIM DEMAND GENERATION EQPT. FIRM EH'V TRANS-
MI<SSION _
197,: 165 Existing 549 477 45 Existing 142 112
* ?73 .~ 192 CHI 1 60 523 5-1 GOAl [ 12] 82
SIDD [ 7] GOA2 [ 4]
CHID [ 7] GOAD [ 6]
BHER ( 8]
1974 22'4 KAP3 50 573 59
19 7 5 ZO0 71
1976 2.97 81
1. 977 346 95 NB 1 60 142
1978 399 109
9979 459 125
19��) 670 745 EWI at 42 0 MW
iZl 767 GOR5 125 817
19S2 877 GOR6 125 942
1983 | 1004 ASH3 125 1067
�84 1139 ASH4 12 5 1192
S.i 1294 ASH7 160 1317
-,,,, i 147o0 CC1 200 1517
Note: After interconnection,, figurcs for overal. system demand ;and firm capaciti
arc shown in 'the columnns fo- the eastern gri'd. y
N' l:rle:--s 'in brac 'cel s inili .nit pl.:nt rMirv ynenis .
Generation Equipment and Transmission Line Program 1I.2
EASTERN' GRID WESTERN GRIDI
YE.R DEMAND GiENERATIONT EQFT FIRM DEIMIAND GENERATION EQPT. F'IRM, EH,V TRANS-
I __ _ - - ___ _ - _ MISSION
1972 l.v5 Existing 549S 477 45 1 Existing, 142 1:12
197?3 ;92 CH! 1 6CI 523 5:1 GOAI I[ 12| 82
SIDD [ 7] GOAZ |[ 4]
CHID [ 7'] GOAD I[ 6]
BHER I[ 8]
1Y74 224 KAP3 5CI 573 59
1975 260 7.1
1?'76 297 81
1 t 77 346 9 5 NB:l 60 142
1 978 399 i0'?
19c.7{9 4 tz59 12 5
1980 670 745 EWfI a1: 180 MNY
1981 767 GOR5 125 817
1982 877 GOR6 125 942
19 8 3 1004 1067 KU:L7 125
M9A4 11.39 AS:H3 125 ,1192
1985 12'94 ASI:4 125 1317.
i936 1470 ASHi7 160 1442
I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1 .
Note: After interconnection, figLures for overall system demand and firm capacity
are shovn in thc colun,nF for thc cn stern grid. Numbers in brackets indicate
Surnmary of Generation Equipment and Transmission LirLe Program I1.4I
EASTERN GRID F WESTERN GRID
\GNR IO. DEM;.AND'lP) DEENERATOION EQPT. GENERATION EQPt. FIRM EH'V TRANS-
_����- _ _ _ _ _____ MISSION
:72
(Samre as 1.1 I)
1980 670 745 EWI at: 420 MW'
1981 767 CC1 200 917
1982 877
1 983 1C04 CC"! 2 50 1 " 42
1'984 1139
1935 1294 ! -CC4L 400 1467
i186 1470 1467
Summary of Generation Equipment and Transmission Line Program 1. 51
(MIW)
.~1 ~ ~ 1-.- __. _ _ -
EiASTERN GRID WESTE:RN GRID
YEAR I DEMAND GENERATION EQPT. FIRM DEMANsD GENERATION EQPT. FIRM EHV TRANS-
r - MISSION
(Satme as 1. 1I
i'?0 9 67 0 745 EWI at 42 0 MW
v 9R1 | 767 KAP4 50O 795
10.3? 'S 77 K.AP5 5CI 1017
C-cl z oci
1983 1004
1 934 1 139 CCz 25CI 1242
1985 1294 CC3 300C 1517
1q36| 1470 1517
ll~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ll
I I
Summary of Generation _Equipment and Transmission Line Program 1. 6I
(MWiV)
EASTERN G:RID WESTERN GRID
EAR DEMAND GENERATIION' EQPT. FIRM/t DEMAND GENERATION EQPr. FIRM E2IV TRANS-
MISSION
i�,7
(Same as I. 1I])
I ~~~~~~~~~745
1980 670 817 l Roopur 200 ||EWI at 42:0 MW
198'. , 767
09821 877 (CC2 250 1067'
1 9 &, I 1 004
.Icl 1 113 9 CC4 .400
198-5 1294[
1936 147() 1467'
"I", I" I
TABLE 17
M:rgilial~~~~~~~, 09t of E-rc RsXWI fo I biulua PL-6 ' ~ .'L L _uJJJI r I
under Plans 1. 4E and 1. 4W (No Initcrconnection) for Economic
Fue! Prices and-Foreign Exchange Rate of 4. 76 TkC/$
NEST TSEST INWST SWST
-On |Off | On 1 Off On Off |On Off |
Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak|
1972 j .008 j .008 J .008 J 008 .033 .033 f .033 0331
1973 .008 j .008 1.008 o .008 .033 .033 .033 1 033
1974 1 .008 J .008 I .008 .008 .033 033. 033 1 .033
I n -IF! n n -- --- --- -----
iL 9; 7 1) vvo vu8 1.00 .us.O O .O . U.3 J .053 1 .0331
1 97 _ A 1 I A I IN I0 I 2 . 0V A 1) I. A 5 3 . 0 35
1977 :;I-;; -oI i:;; :2; :012 ig 039 0 Aq (IC<
1978 .012 I .012 .012 I .012 1.039 I .039 1 .039 1.039
1979 j .012 .012 1 012 .012 039. 039 1 .039 1 .0391
1980 . 013 .012 .013 . 012 . 044 .039 .044 .0391
1981 05 . 0 1 015 . 012 .0444 i .039 044 ' |0
1982 ( .020 - .012 .020 .012 0.044 . .039 .044 I.039i
198 7) .020 v .V 0i5 U I 02u . U i ,iXg.44 U .44 .0441
1 94 x 1 , 07o n! .0 n nA I.0^A r% I A 4-A I f0 A A
.0201 ~ ~ I -1I IJ-7 V'- - I I k tI
1985 j 0%0 .015 .020 .015 - 044 *:044 .044 n4- I1
1986 | .0201 .012 1.030 |.012 1.053 I .044 |.053 0.0441
- 0 . 0 - I - - 012
Note: '"On Peak" refers to tihe 6 hours of nsaxiynurn derriand during
the day for this part-cular set of data. The costs. a'o for enerry
only,
TABLE 18
Marginal Cost of Energy (Rs/KWH) for Agricultural Pumping
under Plan 1.41 (Interconnection in 1980) for Economic Fuel
Prices and Foreign Exchange Rate of 4. 76 k
| NEST SEST NWST SWST
I On 1Off On I Off On | Off On Off
Peak Peak |_Peak| Pcak |Peak| Pcak I Peak Peak
_________ - -1%^ 1A Y^nn IN2 ^3 1
197 .008V VV V JI J V IJ - I)
00AR IOAR IOAR IOOR OI AY I) 'A 'A I I
1974 I 008 .008 .008 .008 .033 .033 .033
.197 5 .008 1 008 008 1 008 .053 1 033 1 053 - 033
1976 1.012 1.0121.012 .012 .053 I .033 1.053 .033
1977 j .012 .012 .012 j .012 1.039 1.039 , 039 j.039
1978 .12 012 1 .012 1 .I012 1 .039 1 .039 1 039 1 .039 j
1979 1.012 1.012 OI 012. 01 I .039 J .039 1 .039 1 . 039J i
19fl0% I I I ~ I I. rI I I I Al r I A% I5 A I I, I 1 I 1 I e
1983 .012 .012 .012 .012 .012 1012 .012 1 012
1984 1.014 - .012 10141.012 1.014 j.1i 1014 j.12
198 1 .012 . 012 1.012 1.012 1. 012 .012 .012 j.012
1986 .014 .012 .0141.012 .014 .012 .014 .01?
Note: "On Pcak" refers to the 6 hours of maximum demnand dturina
the day for this particular set of dlata. The costs are for energy
I I K II K J'l~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~t
'Al a~~~~~~ co II
0~~~~~~~~ , I, I ii~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~t
I I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Nt . -O
:1. I II~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~nI
NC a I,~~~~~' I I II/ i
I ~~~~~~~~~~~~I! lII' "a
IN ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ I
I I I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. n
4 IA 4 4C C. C I 14 C1;
Ii I z I Ii I j~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~IzI 4144I
;C 000 !N C' C C2 I WI mp
,N I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I w Iw
i i ~~~: I lii 'I' IIII 'W w i
Ii~~~~~~~M IL -
Ia'. *~~~ NO 1 .4 cc CA ' 'A0-* C:NCt .,C'
FIGURE 1
(,DINAJPUk f
- X% \ i) \\IRANG?UR I`
NWST _ *t '\ Y'�N
~RAH.r'ILUGAV.
A{Ai hAu ! MTMEN$.lNGI4 Sl"T~ NS
NBENi * ,<
KUSJiH i \V DACCA i
Lf ~JESSORt \AD, X
t_n e^v_ ,ffi<M~~OAKRAtll.w!tA''-
SllST -~ Z r j |SEST
U,'.
Jsre a o'e t.he Ba1nladesh POwer S3Ytmm.
FIGtRFE 2
�9e x 106
I \X
| \ r,fValue of EWI
\00 < ;Financ-irFuei Prices)
200O
i _Cost ot EWI
Value of EWI
] (E~~~~~~Fconomir v- -U -Ir-r u ; Pf: 51X
,1.I I I. _
.08 .10 .12 .15
Discount Rate
Figure 2
Vnluc and Cost of the East-Wqest Intcr-
connector (tWI) at Alternative Discount
Rates and Fuel Prices for a Foreign
Exchange Rate of 4.76 Th/$ (present
worth in 19721.
WTFlXTO 3
400I \
I \frValue of EWI
300 _ \ X \x / |and Low Gas Price
Cost of EWI
Volue of EWI
lr.%o ~~Economic Fuels
Prices 3
.08 .10 .12 .15
Discount Rate
rigure 3
Val.ue and Cost of the East-West Interconnector
(wI) at Altcrn:ative Discount rate s and Euel
Prices for a Forcign Exchange Rate of 9.52Tk/$
(-present worth in 1972).
WTFrTrRr.m 4
mrxl106
300L
I
w OVaC!--. of Rooppur
I ~~~~~~~~rvntiii nf PnAnfniar
x ~~~(Financioi Fuel
IL.A X _- ~V Lrr iL uIE
Value of Rooppur1/7'
! rrinnrnh Pt i !
.08 .10 .12 .15
Discount Rate
Figure 4
Valuc and Cost of the Pooppur Nuciear
Rates and ruel Prices f6r a Foreign
worth in 1972).
,&s x 106
151 Cost of Kaptai
I /
,rur
100)~.-
| ,fVolue of Kaptoi
L witnouT tWI
Vclue of Kaptai
with PWI
.08 .10 .12 .15
Discount Rate
Figure 5
Value and Cost of Kaptai Units 04 and #5
at Altornativc Discount Rates, withi and
without Intcrconnectioon, for a Forcign
E.xchinq'o Rate of 4,76 Tks$. Values arc
thc smrine for Economic ir.d Financial Fuel
Prices (present worth in 1972).
ITks X 106
I O V
n _rVue nf IKnotni
I - 4tihtut EWou I
I A~ s
Volue of KfPtoi....
.08 .10 .12 .15
Discount Rate
Figure 6
Value and Cost of Kaptai Units t4 and
#5 at Alternative Discount r~ates wit.h
and vithout Interconnection, for a
,w~~ ~ TD.4-r% ~F n CZ
and Economic rue. 1Plcices (present worth
.&n .lJ2 ).I