The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) REPORT NO.: RES43182 RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF GUINEA-BISSAU: THE QUALITY EDUCATION FOR ALL PROJECT APPROVED ON JULY 31, 2018 TO THE REPUBLIC OF GUINEA-BISSAU EDUCATION AFRICA WEST Regional Vice President: Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Nathan M. Belete Regional Director: Dena Ringold Practice Manager/Manager: Meskerem Mulatu Task Team Leader(s): Emily Elaine Gardner The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS DGE Directorate of General Education (Direcção Geral do Ensino) DGRH Directorate General of Human Resources (Direcção Geral de Recursos Humanos) EMIS Education Management Information System FM Financial Management GEPASE Department of Planning and Statistics (Gabinete de Estudos, Planeamento, e Avaliação do Sistema Educativo) GPE Global Partnership for Education GRM Global Redress Mechanism IAI Interactive Audio Instruction IGE General Inspection in Education (Inspecção Geral em Educação) INDE National Institute for Education Development (Instituto Nacional para o Desenvolvimento da Educação) M&E Monitoring and Evaluation NGO Non-Governmental Organization PASEC Program in Support of Education Systems of CONFEMEN Countries (Programme d’Appui aux Systems Educatifs des Pays de la CONFEMEN) PIU Project Implementation Unit SDI Service Delivery Indicator SIP School Improvement Plan SMC School Management Committee SORT Systematic Operations Risk Rating Tool TA Technical Assistance The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) BASIC DATA Product Information Project ID Financing Instrument P160678 Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Current EA Category Not Required (C) Not Required (C) Approval Date Current Closing Date 31-Jul-2018 31-Oct-2023 Organizations Borrower Responsible Agency The Republic of Guinea-Bissau The Ministry of Education and Higher Education Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The Project Development Objective is to improve the teaching and learning environment in grades 1-4 in targeted schools in Guinea-Bissau. OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDO Summary Status of Financing (US$, Millions) Net Ln/Cr/Tf Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed IDA-D3640 31-Jul-2018 03-Oct-2018 21-Dec-2018 31-Oct-2023 10.70 2.29 8.44 TF-A7392 11-Jul-2018 03-Oct-2018 21-Dec-2018 31-Oct-2023 4.30 .63 3.67 Policy Waiver(s) Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING A. Project Status 1. Overall. The Quality Education for All Project in Guinea-Bissau (Projeto Educaçao de Qualidade para Todos – PEQT) is comprised of two grants totaling US$15 million: US$10.7 million financed by the International Development Association (IDA) and US$4.3 million financed by the Global Partnership for Education (GPE). The project development objective (PDO) is to improve the teaching and learning environment in grades 1-4 in targeted schools in Guinea-Bissau. The five targeted regions are Bafatá, Bissau, Cacheu, Oio, and Quinara. As of November 2020, the project had disbursed US$2.34 million (15.6 percent of the total). Implementation progress has been slower than expected and these delays have been mainly due to: (i) political instability; (ii) teacher strikes during the 2018/19 school year which closed most of the schools; (iii) the COVID-19 global pandemic; and (iv) delays in establishing the project implementation unit (PIU) for education. As a result of these challenges, the project ratings for achievement towards the PDO and implementation progress have both been Moderately Unsatisfactory over the past year. At this stage, the project is significantly off-track and highly unlikely to successfully achieve the targets set out in the project’s original design. 2. Relevancy. The project aims to help the Ministry of Education improve learning outcomes and reduce learning poverty in primary education in Guinea-Bissau. The PDO and activities supported by the project continue to be closely aligned with the Government of Guinea-Bissau’s priorities for the education sector and are also closely linked to the World Bank’s Country Partnership Framework for Guinea-Bissau FY18-FY21. Guinea-Bissau has one of the lowest performing education systems in the world, further complicated by the ongoing political instability as well as pervasive teacher strikes which have, at times, paralyzed the education system. The existing education system has also struggled to respond to the crisis created by the COVID-19 global pandemic and related forced school closures. There is an urgency to accelerate as quickly as possible the development of distance learning programs, such as the Interactive Audio Instruction (IAI) program, already included in the Project’s original design. Additionally, any support to help the Government implement the new Teacher Career Law and try to prevent further teacher strikes should be prioritized. 3. Progress. Over the past year, significant progress has been made, including the establishment of a strong PIU to support implementation and the adoption of a national policy on School Management Committees (SMCs). However, as a result of implementation delays, many key activities have not yet been launched and progress toward the achievement of targets for all of the PDO-level indicators are currently off-track. The time remaining for project implementation is insufficient to achieve all of the PDO-level and intermediate indicator targets. However, by simplifying the project design, reducing the number of separate activities, making adjustments in the design of the teacher training program due to COVID-19, and including a 12-month extension, the PDO could still be achievable. A summary of key activities, accomplishments and challenges facing each component are summarized below. 4. Component 1 - Strengthen School-Based Management Practices and Empower Communities. This component aims to improve the teaching and learning environment in targeted schools by: (i) encouraging greater community participation in school management; (ii) providing fiscal resources at the school-level; and (iii) strengthening the inspectorate system in order to monitor and strengthen school performance. This component includes three subcomponents: (1.1) Establishment of SMCS; (1.2) School Grants Program; and (1.3) School Inspection and System Monitoring and Evaluation. As of November 2020, only the policy and manual regarding SMCs had been completed. Travel restrictions for the international consultant required to design the flow of funds and procedures for the The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) school grants has kept this activity from advancing and the work to develop the template for School Improvement Plans (SIPs) has not yet to begun. The purchase of the motorcycles required to support the inspectorate system has also been stalled due to issues related to higher-than-expected costs and the lack of available providers. 5. Component 2 - Improve the Quality of Instruction. Component 2 aims to improve the teaching and learning environment in grades 1-4 by supporting activities focused on the successful implementation of the new curriculum in public primary schools. This component includes four subcomponents: (2.1) Teacher Certification; (2.2) In-service Teacher Training; (2.3) Interactive Audio Instruction (IAI); and (2.4) Learning Materials for the New Curriculum for Grades 1-4. Nearly all activities related to Component 2 are dependent on the new curriculum in grades 1-4 being ready to be piloted. Turnover in leadership at INDE (Instituto Nacional para o Desenvolvimento da Educação) and delays in finalizing these materials have prevented activities under subcomponents 2.2-2.4 from advancing as originally planned. Over the past several months, the University of Minho has been urgently providing additional TA to complete the manuals. The pilot materials for grade 1 are now ready and grades 2 – 4 will be ready in the next few months; the pilot of the new curriculum in at least grade 1 will begin in January 2021. Due to new social distancing requirements and limitations on international travel, it has been necessary to modify the original design of the face-to-face in-service teacher training sessions. The project will now support using distance learning platforms to deliver these trainings. The other challenge related to Component 2 relates to teacher strikes. While the project initially planned to support teacher certification for pre-service teachers, pervasive teacher strikes lead to a change in priorities to focus first on the successful implementation of the new Teacher Career Law. If the frequency of teacher strikes are not reduced and classrooms do not actually include teachers, it is highly unlikely that the teaching and learning environment in schools will improve. With the support of the project, the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Education began to implement the new Teacher Career Law in 2019. Due to these efforts, the 2019/20 school year started with nearly no teacher strikes. However, significant support will continue to be needed to put in place systems and procedures to support this massive teacher policy reform. 6. Component 3- Strengthen Education Sector Management Capacity. Component 3 aims to improve the overall functioning of the education system by increasing the availability of data to guide decision-making and by strengthening the overall capacity of the Ministry of Education. Activities under this component are organized into two subcomponents: (3.1) Sector Studies; and (3.2) Project Management. With the establishment of the PIU, the overall performance of Component 3 has improved significantly and every activity for Component 3 that was part of the work plan and budget for November 2019-June 2020 was met in full. However, several of the sector studies are delayed and there is a need to reduce the number of activities and support the collection of basic education data particularly for the five regions targeted by the Project (Bafatá, Bissau, Cacheu, Oio and Quinara). There is no new data on the number of schools, teachers, students, etc. since 2015. This lack of data is creating a serious bottleneck and preventing the Ministry from adequately planning and implementing activities under the other two components. 7. Financial Management (FM). FM has been continuously rated as Moderately Satisfactory. All FM staff for the PIU specific to education have been recruited, the accounting software has been set-up, and the external auditors have been recruited. The required Interim Financial Reports have systematically been submitted on-time and quality of the reports is improving. The first audit report was submitted in July 2020 without qualifications. 8. Procurement. Procurement is currently rated as Moderately Satisfactory. The majority of the delays in procurement are due to: (i) limited capacity to prepare terms of reference; and more recently (ii) travel restrictions and identifying available international firms in the context of COVID-19. For some key issues, such as printing learning materials, it was agreed that the Project Procurement Strategy Document will be updated. Given the considerable The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) implementation challenges, procurement of key activities has been delayed. In order to help improve implementation, the number of different activities and contracts required will be reduced with this restructuring. B. Rationale for Restructuring 9. Changes in Context. This Level 2 restructuring aims to improve project performance by simplifying the project’s original design and aligning the project with the current context in Guinea-Bissau. Project implementation has been slower than expected and many activities are off track due to the above-mentioned challenges and changes in context since Project approval, mainly: (i) political instability; (ii) teacher strikes; and (iii) the COVID-19 global pandemic. The high turnover in government leadership and continuous changing of key counterparts, coupled with the limited capacity of technical staff, has caused delays in implementation; teacher strikes in 2018/2019 caused schools to shut down across the country and an almost complete paralysis of the education system; and in March 2020 schools were once again closed due to the COVID-19 global pandemic. As of November 2020, the schools have reopened but there is the possibility that they may close again due to an increasing number of cases of COVID- 19. 10. Simplifying and Making Adjustments to the Project’s Original Design. In order to improve project performance and increase the likelihood of achievement of the PDO, this restructuring includes the following: (i) a reduction in the number of different project activities in order to focus on those activities expected to have the greatest impact on the teaching and learning environment; (ii) simplification of the results framework to account for the weak monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system and lack of data; (iii) an extension of the closing date in order to provide sufficient time to complete all key project-supported activities and to increase the chances of successfully achieving the PDO; (iv) adjustments in the design of key activities like the teacher training program and use of technology to account for the new context related to COVID-19; and (v) a reallocation of funds across components to account for financing gaps partially due to under-costed activities and the repayment of the Project Preparation Advance (PPA) for the West Africa Region Fisheries Project (see Restructuring Paper from November 2019- Report No. RES39210.)1 II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES 11. Proposed Changes. The proposed restructuring includes: (i) changes to components and costs; (ii) an extension of 12 months; (iii) a revised implementation schedule and disbursement estimates; (iv) changes to the results framework; and (v) changes to the overall risk rating. The proposed restructuring does not include any changes to the PDO, safeguards category, or a reallocation of resources between disbursement categories. 12. Changes in Components and Costs. As explained above, the restructuring does however include a reallocation of resources across components to: (i) ensure greater focus on activities identified as most crucial to successfully achieving the PDO; (ii) modify activities to address challenges related to the COVID-19 global pandemic; and (iii) address financing gaps. Further details on all proposed changes in activities by component and costs are described below summarized in Tables 1 and 2. 1In November 2019, a first restructuring of PEQT was processed to enable the Government of Guinea-Bissau to make payment on a Project Preparatory Advance for expenditures totaling US$644,000 made against the West Africa Region Fisheries Project which was canceled by World Bank management. The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) a. Component 1. The project will continue to support: (i) the new policy and manual for SMCs as well as the training of key government stakeholders (subcomponent 1.1); and (ii) the School Inspection unit with the purchase of motorcycles for the inspectors in the five regions targeted by the project in order to ensure the routine monitoring and supervision of school-level activities (subcomponent 1.3). However, the school grants program (subcomponent 1.2) will be canceled given the elevated risks and complexities in establishing and monitoring this program, especially in light of the current context. As a result of the cancelation of the school grants program, the scope and financing allocated to subcomponents 1.1 and 1.3 will also be reduced as the establishment of the SMCs and school grants programs will no longer be included and inspection will no longer need to verify this program. b. Component 2. Component 2 activities were designed to be carried out as part of the Ministry of Education’s efforts to introduce a new school curriculum in grades 1-4. Of all of the activities under the Project, Component 2 activities are the most critical to improve the quality of the teaching and learning environment and to achieve the PDO. As such, the restructuring includes a greater emphasis and reallocation of funds from Component 1 to Component 2. Under subcomponent 2.1 (Teacher Certification), the planned support for teacher certification will be replaced by new activities to support implement the new Teacher Career Law, including: (i) communication campaigns; (ii) an improved human resource management database; and (iii) and establishment of procedures and instruments for conducting effective teacher evaluations. Subcomponent 2.2 (In-service Teacher Training) will also receive additional funds in order to equip the five teacher training institutes with needed technology to support distance-learning given COVID-19 restrictions. Subcomponent 2.3 (Interactive Audio Instruction) will remain unchanged. Finally, additional funds will be reallocated to subcomponent 2.4 (Learning Materials for the New Curriculum) in order to address a financing gap and fully support the printing of all new materials related to the new curriculum (i.e. student manuals, student workbooks, teacher guides, etc.) for both the pilot and the expansion to all schools in the five regions targeted by the Project. (The original costs allocated to this subcomponent were underestimated given that the materials were still being developed. Now that drafts of the new curriculum and associated materials have been finalized, the costs for printing and distribution can more accurately be estimated.) c. Component 3. Component 3 will largely remain the same, however some sector studies under subcomponent 3.1 will be canceled and a greater focus will be placed on: (i) ensuring the availability of reliable basic education statistics on an annual basis for at least the five regions targeted by the Project; (ii) measuring levels of student achievement both in 2021 and 2024 to be able to determine a realistic baseline and impact of project interventions; and (iii) creating better working conditions in key departments within the Ministry of Education to better support Project implementation. Table 1. Changes in Cost Estimates by Subcomponent Original Actual Planned New Budget Expenditures Expenditures Budget (until 9/2020) (after 9/2020) 15,000,000 661,840 13,694,160 15,000,000 COMPONENT 1 - School Management 3,860,000 125,553 460,447 586,000 1.1 Establishment and Training for SMCs 2,300,000 53,218 157,782 211,000 1.2 School Grants 800,000 - - - The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) 1.3 School Inspection/M&E 760,000 72,335 302,665 375,000 COMPONENT 2 - Quality of Instruction 7,850,000 102,567 10,877,433 10,980,000 2.1 Teacher Certification (Policies/ECD) 350,000 37,060 462,940 500,000 2.2 In-service Teacher Training 3,260,000 65,507 3,844,493 3,910,000 2.3 Scripted Lessons and IAI 3,000,000 - 3,000,000 3,000,000 2.4 Learning Materials for New Curriculum 1,240,000 - 3,570,000 3,570,000 COMPONENT 3 - Education Sector Mgt Capacity 2,790,000 433,720 2,356,280 2,790,000 3.1 Sector Studies 1,190,000 - 700,000 700,000 3.2 Project Management 1,600,000 433,720 1,656,280 2,090,000 CONTINGENCY 500,000 - 644,000 644,000 13. Extension of Project Closing Date/Revised Implementation Schedule. The proposed restructuring includes a 12- month extension of the current closing date from October 31, 2023 to October 31, 2024. Given the initial delays in implementation, it is no longer possible to implement the project and reach the PDO in the existing timeframe. A revised implementation plan which takes into account delays during the first two years of implementation, all existing and newly proposed activities, and the planned 12-month extension can be found in Annex 1. Adding another year is essential to be able to implement both the pilot and expansion of the new curriculum and conduct the required learning assessments and measure improvements for both the teachers and students included under the project. As shown, an additional 12-months will allow achievement of the PDO and all remaining activities to be implemented in full. 14. Revised Disbursement Estimates. Based on the revised implementation schedule and cost estimates prepared jointly by the World Bank and the Government, yearly estimates for the remainder of the project (including the proposed additional 12-months) have been calculated. The revised disbursement estimates take into account actual expenditures to date, and the revised implementation plan for each project activity including the proposed 12-month extension. (See revised disbursement estimates by component in Section IV and by subcomponent in Annex 2.) 15. Changes to the Results Framework. The result framework needs to be modified to reflect: (i) changes in project activities, particularly under Component 1; (ii) limitations in the existing M&E system; and (iii) updated figures and data from the Ministry of Education on the estimated number of beneficiaries and average number of teachers per schools the five regions targeted by the project. All of the proposed changes are summarized in Table 3. (While the results framework automatically generated from the portal shows all indicators being revised, this is only due to the change in all indicator end target dates to reflect the planned extension.) Table 2. Summary of Proposed Changes in Activities by Subcomponent Original Description Original Proposed Changes Revised Cost Cost Estimate Estimate Component 1. Strengthen School-Based Management Practices and Empower Communities 1.1 Establishment of School Management $2,300,000 This subcomponent will continue to support $211,000 Committees (SMCs). This subcomponent (i) the development and adoption of a supports: (i) development and adoption of a national SMC policy and manual. However, The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) national SMC policy and manual; (ii) training will be limited to Ministry officials at establishment of SMCs through ongoing support the central and regional levels. Training by and training provided by local NGOs; and (iii) local NGOs and community sensitization carrying out community sensitization campaigns. campaigns will no longer be directly supported. 1.2 Schools Grants Program. This subcomponent $800,000 To be canceled due to the elevated risks $0 supports building the capacity of SMCs to related to monitoring the school grants develop simple School Improvement Plans (SIPs) under the new context. and providing financial resources to schools through school grants. 1.3 School Inspection and System M&E. This $760,000 The project will continue to support the $375,000 subcomponent supports the inspection system to inspection system but the scope has been be able to implement: (i) routine monitoring and reduced to only include the 5 regions supervision of school-level activities; (ii) offer targeted by the project. In these regions, the pedagogical support to teachers; (iii) monitor the project will support the purchase of use of school resources including textbooks and motorcycles and training for inspectors to be other learning materials; (iv) ensure timely able to: (i) conduct regular monitoring and delivery of school-level data; and (v) provide supervision of school-level activities; (ii) offer support to SMCs in the development and pedagogical support to teachers; and (iii) implementation of their SIPs. monitor the use of school resources including textbooks and other learning materials. Total for Component 1 $3,860,000 $586,000 Component 2. Improve the Quality of Instruction 2.1 Teacher Certification. This subcomponent $350,000 Instead of supporting teacher certification, $500,000 supports the development of a system for teacher this subcomponent will now support certification in order to harmonize the system for implementation of the new Teacher Career teacher training and clarify aspects of the Law. This includes: (i) a communication “Carreira Docente.” campaign; (ii) the development of a database to manage human resources; and (iii) the development of instruments/procedures to conduct evaluations for in-service teachers. 2.2 In-service teacher training. This $3,260,000 No changes to key activities. $3,910,000 subcomponent supports training teachers to be able to effectively implement the new curriculum (Additional funds allocated to accommodate in grades 1-4. The project will finance: (i) design changes due to COVID-19 including: (i) operational costs of the training; (ii) costs to hire purchase of equipment at the 5 teacher the Universidade de Minho to support INDE to training centers and tablets for training develop the training program, conduct training participants; and (ii) the development of an sessions and administer the pre-/post-tests; and online learning platform for the teacher (iii) printing training materials. training program.) 2.3 Scripted teaching lessons and IAI. This $3,000,000 No changes. $3,000,000 subcomponent uses the roll-out of the new curriculum to introduce an IAI program to guide/complement instruction in Portuguese and Mathematics. The project will finance: (i) TA to develop a detailed program design document for the IAI program; (ii) TA to oversee the development of the 200 teaching scripts, train INDE staff, hire voice actors/musicians, and develop simple teacher training materials; (iii) costs to rent studio space to record the lessons via The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) digital editing equipment; and (iv) the purchase of solar powered radios and other equipment. 2.4 Learning materials for the new curriculum in $1,240,000 No changes to key activities. $3,570,000 grades 1-4. This subcomponent supports: (i) the printing and delivery of the new teacher guides (Additional funds allocated to cover a and student manuals developed as part of the financing gap related to printing the new new curriculum; (ii) school kits that support curriculum.) literacy and numeracy skills in grades 1-4; and (iii) TA to develop a textbook policy and dissemination plan. Total for Component 2 $7,850,000 $10,980,000 Component 3. Strengthen Education Sector Management Capacity 3.1 Sector Studies. This subcomponent supports $1,190,000 Based on current priorities, this $700,000 activities to improve the availability of data in subcomponent will now support: (i) a order to guide reforms, improve efficiency, and learning assessment of grade 2 students in monitor education quality. This includes: (i) a regions targeted by the project (2021) in school mapping exercise; (ii) a national learning addition to a nationally representative assessment in grades 2 and 5; (iii) an adapted learning assessment of grades 2 and 5 (2024); Service Delivery Indicator (SDI) survey; and (iv) and (ii) an annual rapid survey to collect basic the creation of an online portal for the Ministry of education statistics. The project will no Education. longer support the adapted SDI survey or the online portal. (Due to fiscal constraints, the school mapping will continue but be financed under a new GPE grant.) 3.2 Project Management. This subcomponent $1,600,000 No changes to key activities. $2,090,000 will finance the costs associated with management of the project and the additional This subcomponent will continue to support expertise to be recruited. Costs include salaries the PIU and other operational costs including for PIU staff, external auditors, other M&E costs, an additional year of implementation. It will operating costs (i.e., rental space, transportation, also support the purchase of equipment/ utilities, and basic IT equipment), and training internet/ vehicles for key departments to activities for Ministry of Education staff. create better working conditions to improve project implementation. Total for Component 3 $2,790,000 $2,790,000 Contingency $500,000 $644,000 GRAND TOTAL $15,000,000 $15,000,000 The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) Table 3. Revised Project Results Framework – Indicators, Targets, and Definitions PDO Indicators Original Revised Comments Target Target Percentage of recipient schools executing school 70% Deleted Removed due to cancellation of related activities grants according to school improvement plans under Component 1. Percentage of teachers who received in-service 70% No change training under the project with improved content knowledge in Portuguese and Mathematics Percentage of grade 2 students in targeted schools 60% No change with improved content knowledge in Portuguese and Mathematics Net enrollment rate in grade 1 in targeted regions 41% (41%) Deleted The only project-related activity expected to have a (female) direct impact on student enrollment was the community sensitization activities. Attribution of the other project activities is weak. Number of Direct Project Beneficiaries 105,854 77,090 The target number of beneficiaries has decreased due to: (i) cancellation of the school grants and removal of  Percentage of which are female 50% 47% beneficiaries from community schools in Oio and  Students benefitting from direct New 73,408 Bafatá; and (ii) the most recent data on the average interventions to enhance learning number of teachers per school being 6 not 8 teachers. The number of female students in grades 1-4 is 49% while the percentage of inspectors, teachers, etc. which are female are all significantly less. Hence, this target has been reduced slightly to 47%. The sub- indicator tracking the number of students benefitting has been added as a mandatory corporate indicator. Intermediate Indicators Original Revised Comment Target Target Component 1 Development and adoption of school Yes No change management committee policy and manual Number of school management committees 459 Deleted Removed due to cancellation of related activities under established (disaggregated by region) Component 1. Percentage of school management committees 80 Deleted Removed due to cancellation of related activities under supported by the Project where 30 percent of the Component 1. members are female Number of schools with approved school 459 Deleted Removed due to cancellation of related activities under improvement plans Component 1. Number of schools receiving school grants 459 Deleted Removed due to cancellation of related activities under (annually) Component 1. The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) Number of school inspectors' visits to targeted 3,744 2,024 School inspection visits were originally focused on schools in Oio and Bafatá supporting the school grants program. This indicator has been modified to account for the removal of the schools grants and to focus the measurement of visits to support implementation of the new curriculum and in all 5 regions targeted by the project (not just Oio and Bafatá). The target includes at least two visits per year to the 10 schools in the pilot – 40 visits; and two visits per year to the 496 public primary schools in the expansion –1,984. Component 2 National teacher certification Yes Yes To reflect the change in activities under Component processes/procedures established 2.1, this indicator will measure the establishment of the national teacher evaluations processes/procedures instead of the teacher certification system. Evaluation of teachers’ using the new school Yes No change curriculum in grades 1-4 in the pilot completed Number of in-service teachers in grades 1-4 Restated as “Teachers recruited or trained” to directly trained in the new curriculum and IAI align with the required corporate indicator. There is no current data on the number of teachers in the targeted Teachers recruited or trained 3969 2976 schools. The original estimate assumed an average of  Teachers recruited or trained (female #) New 535 8 teachers per school for grades 1-4. A recent data set indicates that the average number of teachers per school in the 5 regions targeted by the project is 6 not 8. Hence, the target has been revised assuming 6 teachers on average in 496 public primary schools. According to this same dataset, 18% of primary school teachers in these regions are female. Number of IAI lessons in grades 1 and 2 in 200 No change Portuguese and Math developed Number of primary schools with grades 1-4 using 496 No change the new curriculum and IAI National textbook policy and dissemination plan Yes No change adopted Learning materials for the new curriculum Yes No change delivered to all public primary schools with grades 1-4 in targeted regions Number of textbooks purchased and distributed 297,600 Deleted There is no current data available on the number of to targeted schools students in targeted schools. Given the size of some of the new textbooks, they may also be divided into separate books. Without knowing the number of students or the number of textbooks per grade, it is not possible to determine a realistic target for this indicator. Since there is already an indicator which measures the delivery of learning materials to the schools, it is suggested that this indicator be dropped. The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) Component 3 Completion of school mapping and costed plan for Yes Deleted Removed due to cancellation of related activities under expansion of primary schools Component 3 of the existing project. Education statistics in the 5 project regions New Yes Added to ensure the collection of basic data needed to available annually support implementation of project. PASEC II learning assessment in grades 2 and 5 Yes No change conducted and results disseminated Implementation of adapted Service Delivery Yes Deleted Removed due to cancellation of related activities under Indicators (SDI) survey during the Project Component 3. Establishment of online portal and key education Yes Deleted Removed due to cancellation of related activities under information (i.e., national policies, laws, statistics, Component 3. etc.) publicly available Percentage of total grievances received through 75% No change the GRM established under the project which are addressed 16. Changes in the SORT and Risk Rating. The original overall risk rating for the project was high. During implementation, there have been a number of mitigation measures taken to reduce the level of risk and improve the likelihood of the project being able to be successfully implemented. As agreed with the Country Management Unit, with the removal of high risk activities like the school grants program, making further adjustments that account for weak implementation capacity and high turnover in governments, it is proposed to reduce the overall risk rating from high to substantial. COVID-19 is introducing a number of new unforeseen risks. While not all of these new risks can be addressed, this restructuring also makes key changes to the Project design to enable activities to proceed in a new context of social distancing and limitations in the ability of TA to travel internationally. A summary of the original risk ratings, mitigation measures and the proposed new ratings are provided in Table 4. Table 4. Updated SORT and Rationale for Reduced Risk Rating Risk Type Original Risk Description/Rating Risk Mitigation Action/New Rating Political and High: The country continues to experience a Substantial: Due to high levels of turnover, the governance difficult political environment with frequent Project is recruiting additional external TA to be based changes in government and on-going tensions at the Ministry of Education in the key departments between parties. These short-lived governments supported by the Project. They are expected to make it difficult to ensure the leadership and provide technical support and some continuity stability required to oversee significant legislative between governments. and policy reforms. Macroeconomic Substantial: The narrow focus of the economy on Substantial: Close coordination and policy dialogue cashews makes the macroeconomic base with the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Education extremely vulnerable to shocks. Financing in the has led to being able to implement the new Teacher education sector is already low and the inability of Career Law, pay salary in arrears for teachers, and the state to pay teachers will paralyze the system. increase the amount of financing to education substantially. However, the new fiscal challenges introduced by COVID-19 are putting at risk the sustainability of these increases in budgetary resources. The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) Sector strategies Substantial: In 2017, a new Education Sector Plan Moderate: The Project has been making strong and policies (ESP) was finalized and broadly endorsed by the efforts to ensure the local education group remains Government donor community. The Project active despite the ongoing political instability. This has interventions align directly with the priorities and resulted in opportunities to discuss and broadly objectives outlined in this plan. Although, due to endorse new policies such as the new policy on SMCs, political instability, often the implementation of the Teacher Career Law, etc. Additionally, the World strategies is particularly weak with no monitoring Bank team has recently helped the Government to oversee implementation. Collaboration conduct a Joint Sector Review and prepare a new between the Ministry and donor community will costed action plan for 2021. As a result the sector is be maintained throughout implementation becoming less fragmented and donor support more through regular local education group meetings harmonized to support broadly endorsed policies to and yearly joint sector reviews. govern the sector. Technical design/ Substantial/High: Capacity within the Ministry of Moderate: The Bank recruited a local Education Institutional Education is weak and it is often difficult to recruit Analyst to provide on-going support throughout capacity technical specialists due to the remoteness of the implementation. This in-country presence has been country and language barriers. essential to provide continuity, and harmonize efforts with other donors. However, the context for implementation has become increasingly complicated. This restructuring reduces the number of activities and the scope of the project to account for implementation challenges and weak capacity within the Ministry. Fiduciary Substantial: Weak human resource capacity, Moderate: A PIU to oversee all fiduciary aspects of the unclear institutional and policy frameworks, and a project has been established and the financial lack of proper regulations. The risk is particularly management team is comprised of staff with an issue for the school grants given weak significant experience managing other World Bank accountability mechanisms. projects. However, the planned school grants program would have required close monitoring and support which is not possible in the current context. Hence this activity is to be dropped. Environmental and Low Low: This is a Category C Project and the impact of the social Project is expected to be positive from both an environmental and social standpoint. Stakeholders High: Guinea-Bissau has a very politicized Substantial: Considerable efforts have been paid to education system. One of the main stakeholders in ensure active participation and strong coordination the system are the Teachers Unions who with the Teachers Union. The change from teacher frequently go on strike and ultimately paralyze the certification to supporting implementation of the new education system. Teacher Career Law will help to address Teacher Union concerns and prevent strikes. However, the strikes are not always directly related to issues directly under the control of the Ministry of Education. Hence, this risk still remains substantial and will continue to be closely monitored. Others New: COVID-19 is creating major disruptions in Substantial: The Project is being restructured among education sector due to forced school other changes to include: (i) redesigned training closures. Training of teachers, training of school activities to use distance learning platforms when management committees, reopening the school possible; (ii) provide additional on-going full-time and implementation of the new curriculum all support as to require fewer small contracts for included meetings in large groups which is no international TA. Despite these changes, the risk still longer permissible. Unfortunately the existing remains elevated due to potential continued school The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) infrastructure in Guinea-Bissau does not easily closures and difficulties providing support at a lend itself to distance learning programs. These distance when international travel is not possible. risks put in jeopardy reaching all of the PDO indicators. OVERALL HIGH SUBSTANTIAL III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Results Framework ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Disbursement Estimates ✔ Overall Risk Rating ✔ Implementation Schedule ✔ Implementing Agency ✔ DDO Status ✔ Project's Development Objectives ✔ PBCs ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ EA category ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ Financial Management ✔ Procurement ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ Economic and Financial Analysis ✔ Technical Analysis ✔ Social Analysis ✔ The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) Environmental Analysis ✔ IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S) OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_COMPONENTS_TABLE COMPONENTS Current Current Proposed Proposed Cost Action Component Name Component Name Cost (US$M) (US$M) 1. Strengthen School-Based 1. Strengthen School-Based Management Practices and 3.86 Revised Management Practices and 0.59 Empower Communities Empower Communities 2. Improve the Quality of 2. Improve the Quality of 7.85 Revised 10.98 Instruction Instruction 3. Strengthen Education Sector 3. Strengthen Education Sector 2.79 Revised 2.79 Management Capacity Management Capacity 4. Contingency 0.50 Revised 4. Contingency 0.64 TOTAL 15.00 15.00 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_LOANCLOSING_TABLE LOAN CLOSING DATE(S) Original Revised Proposed Proposed Deadline Ln/Cr/Tf Status Closing Closing(s) Closing for Withdrawal Applications IDA-D3640 Effective 31-Oct-2023 31-Oct-2024 28-Feb-2025 TF-A7392 Effective 31-Oct-2023 31-Oct-2024 28-Feb-2025 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_DISBURSEMENT_TABLE DISBURSEMENT ESTIMATES Change in Disbursement Estimates Yes Year Current Proposed 2019 544,662.10 202,567.00 2020 1,264,065.90 1,451,335.00 The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) 2021 2,501,018.00 2,573,500.00 2022 3,152,915.50 5,872,500.00 2023 3,237,338.50 2,707,500.00 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_SORT_TABLE SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT) Risk Category Rating at Approval Current Rating Political and Governance  High  Substantial Macroeconomic  Substantial  Substantial Sector Strategies and Policies  Substantial  Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program  Substantial  Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and  High  Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary  Substantial  Moderate Environment and Social  Low  Low Stakeholders  High  Substantial Other  Substantial Overall  High  Substantial . The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) . Results framework COUNTRY: Guinea-Bissau Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project Project Development Objectives(s) The Project Development Objective is to improve the teaching and learning environment in grades 1-4 in targeted schools in Guinea-Bissau. Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 To improve the teaching and learning environment in grades 1-4 in targeted schools Percentage of recipient schools executing school grants according to school 0.00 0.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 70.00 improvement plans (annually) (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Percentage of teachers who received in-service training under the project with improved content 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 50.00 70.00 knowledge in Portuguese and Mathematics (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Revised Percentage of grade 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.00 60.00 students in targeted schools The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 with improved content knowledge in Portuguese and Mathematics (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Revised Net enrollment rate in grade 1 in targeted regions 31.00 31.00 31.00 33.00 37.00 41.00 41.00 (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Net enrollment rate in grade 1 in targeted 31.00 31.00 31.00 33.00 37.00 41.00 41.00 regions (female) (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Number of Direct Project 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 77,090.00 Beneficiaries (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Percentage of which are 0.00 15.00 15.00 20.00 47.00 47.00 47.00 female (Percentage) The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 Action: This indicator has been Revised Students benefitting from direct interventions 0.00 0.00 0.00 1,480.00 1,480.00 73,408.00 73,408.00 to enhance learning (Number) Action: This indicator is New PDO Table SPACE Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 Component 1: Strengthen School-Based Management Practices and Empower Communities Development and adoption of school management No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes committee policy and manual (Yes/No) Action: This indicator has been Revised Number of school management committees 0.00 110.00 220.00 459.00 459.00 459.00 459.00 established (disaggregated by region) (Number) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 Number of school management 0.00 50.00 100.00 231.00 231.00 231.00 231.00 committees in Oio (Number) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Number of school management 0.00 60.00 120.00 228.00 228.00 228.00 228.00 committees in Bafata (Number) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Percentage of school management committees supported by the Project 56.00 70.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 where 30 percent of the members are female (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Number of schools with approved school 0.00 0.00 110.00 220.00 459.00 459.00 459.00 improvement plans (Number) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 Number of schools receiving school grants 0.00 0.00 110.00 220.00 459.00 459.00 459.00 (annually) (Number) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Number of school inspectors' visits to targeted 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 1,032.00 2,024.00 schools (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Component 2: Improve the Quality of Instruction National teacher evaluation tools and No No No No No Yes Yes processes/procedures established (Yes/No) Action: This indicator has been Revised Evaluation of teachers’ using the new school curriculum in grades 1-4 in No No Yes Yes Yes Yes the pilot completed (Yes/No) Action: This indicator has been Revised Number of in-service teachers in grades 1-4 0.00 88.00 176.00 1,664.00 3,969.00 3,969.00 3,969.00 trained in the new The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 curriculum and IAI (Number) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Teachers recruited or 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.00 60.00 2,976.00 2,976.00 trained (CRI, Number) Action: This indicator is New Teachers recruited or trained - Female (RMS 0.00 535.00 requirement) (CRI, Number) Action: This indicator is New Number of IAI lessons in grades 1 and 2 in 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 100.00 200.00 200.00 Portuguese and Math developed (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Number of primary schools with grades 1-4 using the 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 10.00 496.00 496.00 new curriculum and IAI (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 National textbook policy and dissemination plan No No No No Yes Yes Yes adopted (Yes/No) Action: This indicator has been Revised Learning materials for the new curriculum delivered to all public primary schools No No No No Yes Yes Yes with grades 1-4 in targeted regions (Yes/No) Action: This indicator has been Revised Number of textbooks purchased and distributed 0.00 0.00 0.00 148,800.00 297,600.00 297,600.00 297,600.00 to targeted schools (Number) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Component 3: Strengthen Education Sector Management Capacity Completion of school mapping and costed plan No No Yes Yes for expansion of primary schools (Yes/No) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Basic education statistics No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes for 5 regions targeted by The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 the project available annually (Yes/No) Action: This indicator is New PASEC II learning assessment in grades 2 and No No No Yes 5 conducted and results disseminated (Yes/No) Action: This indicator has been Revised Implementation of adapted Service Delivery Indicators No No No No No Yes Yes (SDI) survey during the Project (Yes/No) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Establishment of online portal and key education information (i.e., national No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes policies, laws, statistics, etc.) publically available (Yes/No) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Percentage of total grievances received through 0.00 40.00 55.00 75.00 the GRM established under The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 the project which are addressed (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Revised IO Table SPACE The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) Annex 1. Revised Implementation Schedule 20 2021 2022 2023 2024 ACTIVITY T4 T1 T2 T3 T4 T1 T2 T3 T4 T1 T2 T3 T4 T1 T2 T3 Finalize CEGB manual CEGB Train Ministry officials from DGE and IGE and all 9 Regional Directorates of Education Purchase and deliver 90 motorcycles Inspection/M&E Conduct school visits and overall M&E Communications campaign Conduct diagnosis of the needs of the database for human resources Teacher Career Develop the database for human resources Law Develop tools and procedures for teacher evaluations Train Ministry officials to conduct teacher evaluations Purchase tablets and equipment for the teacher training centers and print grade 1 school manuals for the pilot Finalize contract with the Universidade do Minho Implement training during monthly teacher planning sessions for pilot schools Pilot - Create curriculum, administer pre-tests and implement 1st week of teacher training Pilot - Implement the new curriculum in grade 1 Pilot - Create curriculum and implement 2nd week of teacher training Define textbook policy and procurement and dissemination plan New Curriculum Pilot - Print student manuals for grades 1-4 (Teacher Pilot - Create curriculum and implement 3rd week of teacher training Training and Learning Pilot - Implement the new curriculum in grades 1-4 Materials) Pilot - Create curriculum, implement 4th week of teacher training and administer post-tests Incorporate feedback to draft manuals and print manuals for grades 1-4 in the expansion Purchase kits, shelves, equipment for IAI for expansion schools Implement training during monthly teacher planning sessions for expansion schools Expansion - Implement pre-test for teachers and 1st week of teacher training Expansion - Implement the new curriculum in grades 1-4 Expansion - Implement 2nd and, 3rd weeks of teacher training Expansion - Implement 4th week of teacher training and administer post-tests Finalize contract with firm to develop IAI program Interactive Develop lessons for grade 1 (50 - Mathematics; 50 - Portuguese) Audio Develop lessons for grade 2 (50 - Mathematics; 50 - Portuguese) Instruction (IAI) Train grade 1 and 2 teachers in expansion schools on IAI program Implement IAI program in expansion schools The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) 20 2021 2022 2023 2024 ACTIVITY T4 T1 T2 T3 T4 T1 T2 T3 T4 T1 T2 T3 T4 T1 T2 T3 PASEC I - Recruit technical assistance PASEC I - Prepare instruments/sample for grade 2 students and teachers in 5 regions of the project PASEC I - Administer the assessment (May) PASEC I - Analyze the data and publish and disseminate final report PASEC PASEC II - Recruit technical assistance PASEC II - Prepare instruments/national sample for grade 2 and 5 students and teachers PASEC II - Administer the assessment (May) PASEC II - Analyze the data and publish and disseminate final report Prepare instruments with SMS tools Education Administer survey Statistics Validate data and conduct field visits Update the Project Implementation Manual Submit Interim Financial Report Project Submit external audit report Management Submit annual work plan and budget Submit semi-annual progress report Prepare final project report The World Bank Guinea Bissau: The Quality Education for All Project (P160678) Annex 2 . Revised Disbursement Estimates until October 31, 2024 (in USD) New Estimated 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Total 15,000,000 202,567 1,451,335 2,573,598 5,872,500 2,707,500 2,192,500 COMPONENT 1 - School Management 586,000 - 172,335 413,665 - - - 1.1 Establishment and Training for SMCs 211,000 - 100,000 111,000 - - - 1.3 School Inspection/M&E 375,000 - 72,335 302,665 - - - COMPONENT 2 - Quality of Instruction 10,980,000 102,567 35,000 1,549,933 5,412,500 2,297,500 1,582,500 2.1 Teacher Certification (Policies/ECD) 500,000 37,060 - 112,940 225,000 125,000 - 2.2 In-service Teacher Training 3,910,000 65,507 - 551,993 1,057,500 1,392,500 842,500 2.3 Scripted Lessons and IAI 3,000,000 - - 700,000 780,000 780,000 740,000 2.4 Learning Materials for New Curriculum 3,570,000 - 35,000 185,000 3,350,000 - - COMPONENT 3 - Education Sector Mgt Capacity 2,790,000 100,000 600,000 610,000 460,000 410,000 610,000 3.1 Sector Studies 700,000 - - 275,000 75,000 75,000 275,000 3.2 Project Management 2,090,000 100,000 600,000 335,000 385,000 335,000 335,000 CONTINGENCY 644,000 - 644,000 - - - -