The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Safety Net Project (P167416) Social Safety Net Project (P167416) LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN | Ecuador | Social Protection & Jobs Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2019 | Seq No: 4 | ARCHIVED on 25-May-2021 | ISR46197 | Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Economic and Social Inclusion (MIES), Republic of Ecuador, Unidad del Registro Social Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 03-Apr-2019 Effectiveness Date: 06-Aug-2019 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 30-Aug-2021 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: Original Closing Date: 30-Dec-2022 Revised Closing Date: 30-Dec-2022 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The Project development objective is to improve the equity, integration and sustainability of selected social safety net programs. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Component 1: Improving equity, integration and sustainability of the selected SSN programs:(Cost $155.70 M) Component 2: Technical Assistance for Capacity Building & Monitoring and Evaluation:(Cost $20.25 M) Component 3: Improving the equity of selected SSN Program:(Cost $174.05 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions 1. The Social Safety Net Project was approved in April 3, 2019 and became effective on August 6th, 2019. Up to date, a total of US$ 176.42 million have been disbursed. 2. Several Disbursement Linked Indicators (DLIs) have already been achieved, despite fiscal challenges and the COVID-19 pandemic. Many activities are still being carried out and associated targets being met. 5/25/2021 Page 1 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Safety Net Project (P167416) 3. The health emergency and social distancing constraints imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic have delayed key activities related to economic inclusion, which are required to achieve the goals set for sustainability. 4. The project was restructured for a third time, to complement the efforts made by the Government of Ecuador to expand the number of beneficiaries of regular cash transfers, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance Substantial Substantial Substantial Macroeconomic High High High Sector Strategies and Policies Substantial Substantial Substantial Technical Design of Project or Program Substantial Substantial Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Substantial Substantial Substantial Sustainability Fiduciary Substantial Substantial Substantial Environment and Social Moderate Substantial Substantial Stakeholders Substantial Substantial Substantial Other -- -- -- Overall Substantial Substantial Substantial Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes Improve the equity, integration and sustainability of selected social safety net programs IN00977133 ►Percentage of poor households (deciles 1 to 3) with children under three years old receiving BDH or BDH-V with corresponding early childhood development services nationwide (Percentage, Custom, PBC) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.90 11.20 16.20 18.70 Date 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 30-Dec-2022 MIES shared indicators for December 2020. However, the WB team concluded that the denominators had technical limitations. Therefore, the WB team modified the denominators considering the Comments: targeted population for each indicator in the National Employment Survey. The values presented consider the numerators provided by MIES and the denominators calculated by the WB team. The WB team will 5/25/2021 Page 2 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Safety Net Project (P167416) continue to follow up and advise the client to solve the current limitations and update the information by July 31, 2021. IN00977134 ►Percentage of elderly in poor households (deciles 1 to 3) receiving UCT and elderly care services nationwide (Percentage, Custom, PBC) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 3.20 3.20 25.80 13.60 Date 31-Dec-2018 31-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2020 30-Dec-2022 MIES shared indicators for December 2020. However, the WB team concluded that the denominators had technical limitations. Therefore, the WB team modified the denominators considering the targeted population for each indicator in the National Employment Survey. The values presented consider Comments: the numerators provided by MIES and the denominators calculated by the WB team. The WB team will continue to follow up and advise the client to solve the current limitations and update the information by July 31, 2021. IN00977135 ►Percentage of currently BDH beneficiaries from non-poor households (decile 3 and above) with young members (18-29 years old) that receive an economic inclusion package (Percentage, Custom, PBC) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.30 Date 31-Dec-2018 01-Mar-2021 30-Apr-2021 30-Dec-2022 The associated activities have not started yet. As of May 2021, activities are delayed and there is no Comments: progress to report. IN00977196 ►Percentage of extreme poor households (decile 1) with updated information in the Social Registry (Percentage, Custom, PBC) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 25.00 25.00 27.60 70.00 Date 31-Dec-2018 31-Aug-2020 10-Apr-2021 30-Dec-2022 The Social Registry Unit shared indicators dated March 2021. The denominator was calculated using the National Employment Survey. Targeted values are much higher than the calculated values since the project changed focus from extreme poverty (decile 1) to moderate poverty (decile 1-3) and the Social Comments: Registration Index algorithm efficiently classifies households into poor and non-poor, but is not designed to increase coverage of decile 1. IN00977197 ►Percentage of poor households (deciles 1 to 3) included in regular cash transfer (CT) programs (Percentage, Custom, PBC) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 38.00 54.00 54.00 80.00 Date 15-Jul-2020 01-Mar-2021 31-Mar-2021 30-Dec-2022 According to the information provided by MIES, the target set for year 1 has been met. The WB team will Comments: follow up on the calculation of this indicator to provide a technical assessment. 5/25/2021 Page 3 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Safety Net Project (P167416) Overall Comments PDO Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Sub-component 1.1: Improvements in the Social Registry. IN00977198 ►Depth of the Social Registry Database (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 40.00 40.00 40.00 80.00 Date 15-Jun-2018 31-Aug-2020 31-Aug-2020 30-Dec-2022 Percentage of decile 1 households (measured by per capita income) enlisted in the Social Registry Comments: Database. Note: Baseline to be available by July 31, 2021. IN00977202 ►Usage of the Social Registry database at the MIES' programs (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 50.00 50.00 50.00 100.00 Date 30-Dec-2019 31-Aug-2020 30-Apr-2021 30-Dec-2022 Percentage of household registries used by social and non social programs of the central government. Comments: Note: Baseline will be available by July 31, 2021. IN00977204 ►Usage of administrative records in the Social Registry database (Percentage, Custom, PBC) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 Date 30-Dec-2019 31-Aug-2020 30-Apr-2021 29-Dec-2023 Percentage of variables collected from administrative data, mainly Civil Registry, IRS, Social Security, Comments: Health and Education. Note: Baseline to be available by July 31, 2021. IN00977207 ►Beneficiaries of social safety net programs (Number, Corporate) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 965,737.00 965,737.00 965,737.00 1,089,305.00 Date 31-Dec-2018 31-Aug-2020 31-Aug-2020 30-Dec-2022 5/25/2021 Page 4 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Safety Net Project (P167416) Subcomponent 1.2: Improving integration within selected SSN programs. IN00977199 ►Extreme poor infants receiving cash transfer Bono de Desarrollo Humano Variable (BDH-V) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 36.20 36.20 36.20 90.00 Date 31-Dec-2018 31-Aug-2020 30-Apr-2021 30-Dec-2022 Comments: Percentage of infants of extreme poor households receiving cash transfer IN00977203 ►Extreme poor infants attending early childhood development services (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 21.40 21.40 21.40 80.00 Date 31-Dec-2018 31-Aug-2020 30-Apr-2021 30-Dec-2022 Comments: Percentage of infants of extreme poor households attending infant development services IN00977205 ►Extreme poor indigenous infants with complete package (BDH-V and early childhood services- ECD) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.00 Date 27-Dec-2019 31-Aug-2020 30-Apr-2021 30-Dec-2022 Percentage of extreme poor indigenous infants with complete package Note: Baseline to be available by Comments: July 31, 2021. IN00977208 ►Extreme poor indigenous elderly with complete package (PMMA and elderly care services) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.00 Date 30-Dec-2019 31-Aug-2020 30-Apr-2021 30-Dec-2022 Percentage of extreme poor indigenous elderly with complete package (PMMA and elderly care services) Comments: Note: baseline to be available by July 31, 2021. IN00977210 ►Number of health controls for extreme poor children according to age from 0 to 24 months (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 75.00 Date 30-Dec-2019 31-Aug-2020 30-Apr-2021 30-Dec-2022 5/25/2021 Page 5 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Safety Net Project (P167416) Average of total number of health controls for extreme poor children ages 0 to 24 months Note: Baseline Comments: to be available by July 31, 2021. IN00977211 ►Children age 0 to 24 months with complete vaccination schedule (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 75.00 Date 30-Dec-2019 31-Aug-2020 30-Apr-2021 30-Dec-2022 Percentage of children ages 0 to 24 months from extreme poor households having all the required Comments: vaccines according to their age and the national vaccination schedule IN00977212 ►Percentage of necessary childcare time dedicated by father of extreme poor children (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.00 Date 30-Dec-2019 31-Aug-2020 30-Apr-2021 30-Dec-2022 Comments: Percentage of time dedicated by extreme poor to nurture their infants IN00977213 ►Extreme poor elderly receiving cash transfer PMMA (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 58.10 58.10 58.10 90.00 Date 31-Dec-2018 31-Aug-2020 30-Apr-2021 30-Dec-2022 Comments: Percentage of elders from extreme poor households receiving the CT-PMMA IN00977214 ►Extreme poor elderly receiving caring services (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 3.80 3.80 3.80 43.20 Date 31-Dec-2018 31-Aug-2020 30-Apr-2021 30-Dec-2022 Comments: Percentage of elders from extreme poor households receiving caring services IN00977215 ►Extreme poor female children under three years old receiving CCTs with corresponding early childhood development services nationwide (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.00 Date 30-Dec-2019 31-Aug-2020 30-Apr-2021 30-Dec-2022 5/25/2021 Page 6 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Safety Net Project (P167416) Percentage of female infants of extreme poor households receiving cash transfer and attending caring Comments: services IN00977216 ►Strengthening of the GRM for BDH and BDH-V (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target The baseline is not GRM implementation Action Plan for GRM available yet. It will be The baseline is not started in December Value strengthening available by the end of available yet. 2020 completed. CY19. Date 30-Dec-2019 31-Aug-2020 30-Apr-2021 30-Dec-2022 Sub-component 1.3: Improving the sustainability of selected programs within the SSN. IN00977206 ►Percentage of poor households enrolled in a twenty-four month CDH integrated service package program (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.55 Date 31-Dec-2018 31-Aug-2020 30-Apr-2021 30-Dec-2022 IN00977209 ►Percentage of non-poor households enrolled in a twelve month CDH integrated service package (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.85 Date 31-Dec-2018 31-Aug-2020 30-Apr-2021 30-Dec-2022 Component 2: Technical Assistance for Capacity Building & Monitoring and Evaluation. IN00977200 ►Implementation of a Gender Plan (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target MIES will contract a MIES will contract a private entity to gather private entity to gather the information the information necessary for necessary for monitoring monitoring the the intermediate and final intermediate and final Monitoring of: (i) There is no baseline at objectives of the project. objectives of the gender equity on time the moment. Information Value INEC has committed to project. INEC has devoted to children will be available at the providing technical committed to providing care and (ii) women end of the first year. advice to MIES and the technical advice to economic autonomy. entity on issues related to MIES and the entity on survey design, sample issues related to calculation, survey form, survey design, sample among others. calculation, survey form, among others. Date 30-Dec-2019 31-Aug-2020 30-Apr-2021 30-Dec-2022 5/25/2021 Page 7 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Safety Net Project (P167416) The project worked on a gender diagnostic that will be used to develop a Gender Plan that should be Comments: finished shortly. Component 3:Improving the equity of selected SSN Programs. IN00977201 ►Percentage of poor households that have been included and are receiving CT packages. (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 38.00 54.00 54.00 80.00 Date 01-Jul-2020 31-Dec-2020 30-Apr-2021 30-Dec-2022 Overall Comments IR Many of the intermediate indicators do not have a baseline and it will be available in July 2021. The technical teams of the project and the Bank are working on unifying the denominators required to update the indicators. However, it has been very difficult since there is a lack of staff and a complex coordination among the internal units of the client. The WB team will continue to follow up on these activities in order to update the indicators by July 31, 2021. Performance-Based Conditions IN00977217 ►PBC 1 Executive Decree creating the institutional framework to operate the Social Registry- SR- approved. (Yes/No, Process, 1.08, 100.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Year 3 Value No Yes Yes -- Date -- 16-Sep-2019 16-Sep-2019 -- The executive decree creating the institutional framework for the Social Registry was approved and the new Comments: entity created. IN00977218 ►PBC 2 Percentage of extreme poor households (decile 1) with updated information in the Social Registry (Percentage, Output, 24,550,000.00, 100.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Year 3 Value 25.00 314,072.00 27.60 -- Date -- 30-Jun-2020 10-Apr-2021 -- 5/25/2021 Page 8 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Safety Net Project (P167416) IN00977219 ►PBC 3 Operational manual of ‘Mision Ternura’ approved (Yes/No, Process, 6,100,000.00, 100.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Year 3 Value No Yes Yes -- Date -- 26-Nov-2019 26-Nov-2019 -- IN00977220 ►PBC 4 Children under 3 years old from poor households with access to BDH or BDH-V and early childhood services. (Number, Outcome, 0.01, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Year 3 Value 3,045.00 4,589.00 4,589.00 -- Date -- 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 -- Loan resources planned for this DLI were reassigned to other components and activities. The DLI was Comments: accomplished with domestic resources granted by the GoE. IN00977221 ►PBC 5 Operational manual of “Mis Mejores Años” approved (Yes/No, Process, 830,000.00, 100.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Year 3 Value No Yes Yes -- Date -- 12-May-2020 12-May-2020 -- IN00977222 ►PBC 6 Operational Manual of economic inclusion strategy for eligible beneficiaries of BDH and BDH-V through CDH approved. (Yes/No, Process, 5,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Year 3 Value No Yes Yes -- Date -- 15-Dec-2020 15-Dec-2020 -- IN00977223 5/25/2021 Page 9 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Safety Net Project (P167416) ►PBC 7 Percentage of currently BDH beneficiaries from non-poor households (decile 3 and above) with young members (18-29 years old) that receive an economic inclusion package (Percentage, Intermediate Outcome, 19,800,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Year 3 Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 -- Date -- 01-Mar-2021 30-Apr-2021 -- IN00977224 ►PBC 8 Percentage of extreme poor households (decile 1) with updated information in the Social Registry (Percentage, Output, 23,350,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Year 3 Value 25.00 314,072.00 27.60 -- Date -- 30-Apr-2020 10-Apr-2021 -- IN00977225 ►PBC 9 Children under 3 years old from poor households with access to BDH or BDH-V and early childhood services. (Number, Outcome, 17,875,695.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Year 3 Value 3,045.00 36,806.00 36,806.00 -- Date -- 26-Feb-2021 31-Dec-2020 -- Resources planned for accomplishing this DLI have been recalculated since part of the activities are Comments: performed using domestic resources granted by the GoE. IN00977226 ►PBC 10 Elderly persons from poor households receive PMMA and have access to care services. (Number, Outcome, 3,810,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Year 3 Value 4,756.00 4,756.00 12,279.00 -- Date -- 31-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2020 -- IN00977227 ►PBC 11 Percentage of poor households (deciles 1 to 3) included in regular cash transfer (CT) programs (Percentage, Intermediate Outcome, 12,000,000.00, 0.00%) 5/25/2021 Page 10 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Safety Net Project (P167416) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Year 3 Value 38.00 54.00 54.00 -- Date -- 01-Mar-2021 31-Mar-2021 -- IN00977228 ►PBC 12 Children under 3 years old from poor households have access to BDH or BDH-V and early childhood services. (Number, Outcome, 15,200,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Year 3 Value 3,045.00 36,806.00 36,806.00 61,805.00 Date -- 26-Feb-2021 31-Dec-2020 -- IN00977229 ►PBC 13 Elderly persons from poor households receive PMMA and have access to care services. (Number, Outcome, 6,430,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Year 3 Value 4,756.00 4,756.00 12,279.00 20,279.00 Date -- 31-Aug-2020 31-Dec-2020 -- IN00977230 ►PBC 14 Usage of administrative records in the Social Registry database (Percentage, Output, 9,898,316.47, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Year 3 Value 0.00 2,400,000.00 0.00 -- Date -- 01-Mar-2021 30-Apr-2021 -- Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P167416 IBRD-89460 Effective USD 350.00 350.00 0.00 176.42 173.58 50% Key Dates (by loan) 5/25/2021 Page 11 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Safety Net Project (P167416) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P167416 IBRD-89460 Effective 03-Apr-2019 22-Jul-2019 06-Aug-2019 30-Dec-2022 30-Dec-2022 Cumulative Disbursements PBC Disbursement Achievement Disbursed amount in Disbursement % PBC ID PBC Type Description Coc PBC Amount Status Coc for PBC Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 13-Mar-2020 ,Level 2 Approved on 21-Aug-2020 ,Level Approved on 28-Aug-2020 ,Level 2 Approved on 26-Mar-2021 Related Project(s) P175921-Social Safety Net Project 5/25/2021 Page 12 of 12