Report No. 5206-CHA China: Long-Term Issues and Options Annex A: Issues and Prospects in Education May 22,1985 Education Division Projects Department East Asia and Pacific Regional Oifice FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Doc*ment of the World Bank This report has a restricted distrbution and may be used by recipients only in the performfance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. ** - CURRENCY EOTTIVALENTS The Chinese currency is called Renminbi (LRfR). It is denominated in Yuan (Y). Each Yuan is 1 Yuan = 10 jiao = 100 fen In early 1984 the official exchange rate of the Yuan to the US dollar was around Y 2 = USSI. The internal settlement rate (ISR) of Y 2.8 = S1, however, was used in most merchandise transactions. The official exchange rate is now about Y 2.8 = $1. on January 1, 1985, the Covernment abolished the ISR. WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Chinese statistics are usually in metric units; in addition, mu and jin are often used: i mu = 0.1647 acres = 0.0667 hectares Ijin = 0.5 kg FISCAL YEAR Januarv 1 - December 31 TRANSLITERATION The Pinyin system is used in this report. Note: In tables, individual items mav not sum exactly to totals because of rounding errors. FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CHINA: LONG-TERM ISSUES AND OPTIONS ANNEX A: ISSUES AND PROSPECTS IN EDUCATION Table of Contents Page No. SUMMARY ................................................... i-vii I. BACKGROURND .--------------------------------------1 Recent Developments .......................................... 2 2. UNIVERSALIZATION OF BASIC EDUCATION .... .................... o 5 Recenc Developments in Primary and Secondary Education ... 5 (a) Enrollment Trends ..................................... 5 (b) Staff Utilization ..................................... 8 (c) The K-School Philosophy ..... ............... 9 Issues for Basic Education Strategy .... ..................... 10 (a) Aims of Basic Education ............. .. ................ 10 (b) Demand for Basic Education ............ .. .............. 12 (c) Application of the K-School Concept ................... 15 (d) Management Issues ................ .. ................... 17 Prospects to the Year 2000 .................................. 20 3. TECHNICAL AND VOCATIONAL EDUCATION .......................... 23 Recent Developments ......................................... 23 Enrollment Trends ........................................... 24 Technical Manpower Demand and Supply .... .................... 26 Issues in Technical/Vocational Education .................... 27 (a) Specialization ........................................ 29 (b) Duration and Level of Training .......... .. ............ 31 (c) Shortages of Staff and Facilities ..................... 31 (d) Administration .. ... 32 (e) Status of Technical/Vocational Education . . 33 4. TEACHER TRAINING ............................................ 33 Teacher Demand and Supply ................................... 34 Issues in Teacher Training .................................. 40 (a) Curricula ... 40 (b) Structure .............................................. 41 (c) Administration ....................................... 42 (d) Teacher Status . . ................ .. 43 5. EDUCATION COSTS AND FINANCING ............................... 44 Background .................................................. 44 Current Spending ............................................ 45 Prospects to the Year 2000 .................................. 48 This document has a rticted distibu and may be used by reipints only in the performance of therofia duties. Its contents may not otherwise be discsed without World Bank authorization. - ii Page No. TABLES IN TEXT Table No. 2.1 Projection of Primary Student Enrollments, 1983-2000 .......... ........... 20 2.2 Projection of Student Enrollments at the Lower Secondary Level, 1983-2000 .21 2.3 Projection of Student Enrollments at the Upper Secondary Level, 1983-2000 .22 4.1 Projected Primary Teacher Surplus or Shortage in the Year 2000 ............... 35 4.2 Primary Teacher Stock by Qualifications and Age, 1982 ............ 36 4.3 Projected Secondary Teacher Surplus or Shortage in the Year 2000 ............................... 38 5.1 TotaL Unit Costs of Education at Different Levels as a Percentage of GNP/Capita ..... ................. 46 5.2 Estimated Total Education Expenditures, 1979 and 1982 . .............................................. 47 5.3 Growth of Ministry of Education Recurrent Expenditures, 1977-82 .............................. 47 5.4 Percentage Distribution of Public Recurrent Educational Expenditure, by Level of Education 48 5.5 Estimates of Primary School Enrollments, Teachers and Total Public Recurrent Costs in China, 1982 and 2000 ........... ................................ 49 5.6 Estimates of Secondary School Enrollments, Teachers and Recurrent Costs, 1983 and 2000 .... ............. 51 5.7 Summary of Estimates of Total Public Recurrent Costs, 1983 and 2000, and Capital Equipment Needs, 1982-2000, in Education ............................ 53 - iii - Page No. LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix/Table No. Al Structure of Education in China .............................. 55 A2 Enrollment Ratios in Formal Education in China and in Other Developing Countries by Grade, 1950-83 and targets for 2000. 56 B1 Enrollment in Primary and Secondary Education by Grade, 1979-83 57 B2-B3 Number of Students, Schools and Teachers, 1979-83 .... ........ 59 B4 Student Enrollment in Various Types of Postsecondary Institutions, 1979-82/83 .62 B5 Number of Various Types of Postsecondary Institutions, by Province - 1979, 1981 and 1982 .... .64 B6 Number of Graduates from Higher Education, by Discipline, 1979-83 65 B7 Higher Education Institutions and Students, by Classification, 1979-83 .................................................... 66 B8 Students, Schools and Teachers in Nonformal Education, 1979-83 67 B9 Recurrent Educational Expenditure by the Ministry of Education, 1978-82, and State Budget Expenditure, by Activity, 1950-82 68 BIO-Bll EnroLlment in Formal Education, 1949-83, and Projected to the Year 2000 .................................................. 70 c Timetable of Preservice Primary Teacher Training Schools ...... 72 D Comparative Education Indicators .............................. 73 E Public Recurrent Costs: Estimates of Increases at the Primary, Secondary and Higher Levels by the Year 200 .75 SUMKARY 1. China's achievements in education since 1949 have been unmatched among developing countries of the same income level. EnrolLments in formal and nonformal primary and secondary education have been high by any stan- dards. The supply of teachers and didactic materials has in many respects been good and student performance, as far as can be assessed, quite high. Self-help programs in education have been more successful in China than in most other countries. The Government has been able to keep the costs of major education programs under contral, and China has - unlike the rest of the developing world - been able co introduce improvements in the education system without any serious strain on public expenditures. 2. China's education system has nevertheless had problems in recent years. Events during the Cultural aevolution seriously lowered the quality of education and sharply reduced the output of qualified manpower. Manpower shortages, affecting industry, agriculture, transportation and other economic sectors, have hampered achievement of the four modernizations. Accompanying shortages of qualified manpower has been an abundance of unqualified workers and staff at several levels, leading to low efficiency in enterprises and also in education. Since 1976, the Government has been quite successful in introducing measures to improve the output of qualified manpower and the overall education profile of China's population. 3. Over the last few years, developments outside the education sector have begun to have an impact on schooling. The change that has had the most far-reaching effect is introduction of the production responsibility system in rural areas. Linking production more to individual effort than it was in the past has apparently made rural parents, at least initially, less willing to send or maintain their children in school. En addition, new opportunities for productive work outside school may be a drain on the time and effort of locally hired teachers. Some changes have been made in the running of urban enterprises, but on a much more limited scale than the changes in rural areas. However, other changes affecting employment have also taken place: the former system of controlled labor allocation is no longer applied across the board, and some of the barriers to professional mobility and restrictions on rural-urban population movements seem to be relaxing somewhat. These changes will have an indirect impact on education because of their influence on students' job opportunities and career choices. 4. The focus on the rehabilitation of higher education during the last 7-8 years has been justified given the damage to higher education during the preceding decade. It is now appropriate to consider other parts of the educa- tion system also, to ensure that the base of the system is well developed. This annex has identified issues in general and technical/vocational education and in teacher training that will need to be dealt with during the next 15 years if the Government is to achieve its education policies and goals. Tentative estimates of future recurrent costs and investment needs have been made. These issues and prospects are summarized in the following paragraphs. UniversaL Basic Education 5. The Government has procLaimed its goal of making six years of pri- mary education and three years of Lower secondary education universal by the end of this century. The Government is thus de facto introducing a nine-year basic education system. Based on the World Bank's preliminary projections, absolute enrollments at these levels would decrease from 174 million to 135-140 million as universal basic education is achieved, because the fertility decline is predicted to continue. Constraints on achievement of universaL basic education during the next 15 years are discussed below. 6. Enrollments have decreased in both primary and secondary education during the last few years. The intake of new students has declined more than can be explained by the reduction in the relevant age groups. Dropout rates have remained high. In the poorer regions of China, where there is little technological advance in agriculture or opportunity for nonagricultural employment, the economic returns to education must seem very low. Farmers are not convinced that there is a good economic return on primary education for their children, especially females. They see the opportunity costs of education for their children increasing with the introduction of the responsibility system in agriculture and would therefore rather keep some children engaged on the farm or in the household rather than in school. The Covernment has taken steps to reverse the decline in enrollments and reduce the number of dropouts, apparently with more success in primary than in secondary education. But increased local financial self-reliance in basic education seems to have aggravated the problems of poorer areas, where enroll- ment ard educational quality were already unsatisfactorily low. Moreover, the factors which caused the enrollment decline will persist and may present an obstacle to achieving the goal of making nine years of basic education effectively universal by the end of the century. 7. Rural parents and poor city dwellers often see education as a way out of rural life and urban poverty and as a means of achieving a higher standard of living. Reintroduction in the late 1970s of the key-school (K- school) system in primary and lower secondary education may have thwarted such expectations in China. These schools appear to favor pupils in urban areas and children of economically better off and better educated parents every- where, at the expense of pupils in rural areas and children of less prosperous and less educated parents. The K-school system perpetuates the perception among poor people of a two-track system in basic education, one elite track - mainly for urban students - which leads to further education and promising careers in adult life, and a second track - mainly for rural children - which is terminal and, furthermore, less relevant for the adult life of a peasant or urban manual worker. It is difficult to justify application of the K-school concept in basic education: research and experience in other countries indicate that it is not only inequitable but also pedagogically and econom- ically unjustifiable. More recently, Government has discouraged the designa- tion of K-sckools at the primary level. Many of them have even converted to experimental schools with additional responsibility to provide support for neighboring schools. - iii - 8. The average Chinese pupil in primary and lower secondary education has textbooks but they could be improved in design, workmanship and content. There is a scarcity of other didactic materials and the physical school environment is often poor. FavorabLe demographic developments and financial gains that could be achieved by increasing student/teacher ratios provide an opportunity to improve the supply of materiaLs nationwide. A universal nine- year basic education system will require more and also different equipment and didactic materials. 9. Experience from other countries shows that the introduction of a nine-year basic education system requires much work in curriculum and staff development, and physical planning to achieve the objectives of basic educa- tion. One concern is the role of K-schools in a nine-year basic education system. However, the most compelling problem, and the one that could have the most severe consequences for economic growth in the long term, is the erosion of schools' holding power. The Government is making an effort to popularize education by disseminating information about its benefits in terms of increased productivity and family well-being, and these efforts could be strengthened. Increased financial support from higher levels of Government for schools in poorer areas will also be essential. Finally, the proposal to make completion of primary education mandatory has been instituted already in one province and is likely to be an effective means of improving attendance nationwide. TechnicaL and Vocational Education 10. There are few issues in general upper secondary education, one function of which is to prepare students for higher education. The Government has recently curtailed enrollments in this type of education as a means of reducing the pressure for university places. Enrollments will eventually increase again and triple the current enrollment of approximately 5.5 million students, to some 15 million, by the year 2000; this would correspond to an enrollment ratio of about 30% of the relevant age group. The quality of education offered is good, the quantity generally appropriate, and application of the K-school concept justified. 11. The situation in technical/vocational secondary education is quite different. The almost complete abolition of formal technical and vocational secondary education in China during the Cultural Revolution has caused a serious shortage of middle-level technical and managerial manpower in industry, agriculture and other economic sectors. Many technical and skilled worker training schools have now reopened and a great effort is being made to provide erposure to vocational subjects in many general secondary schools by offering courses in industry, services, business and agriculture. Advancement of the four modernizations and a tripling of GNP will require huge efforts in technical/vocational education to complement those already well underway in higher education. The specific need for technical/vocational education to support various economic sectors has onlv been marginally explored, but greater efforts in formal and nonformal agricultural and service sector education appear necessary. - iv - 12. Technical/vocational education in China compares well with that in many developing countries at the same income leveL, and the recovery after the damage caused by the Cultural Revolution has in many ways been admirable. The system suffers, nevertheless, from weaknesses that make support of the four modernizations difficult and that increase recurrent costs and investment needs more than necessary. Since ;976, progress in developing the system has been uneven. 13. Enrollment in technicaL and skilled worker training schools run by various line ministries has decreased, while the vocationalization of general secondary education has proceeded with increasing student enrollments. Non- formal training has assumed a Large role and appears to meet half of annual training needs. The vocationalization program and nonformal training should develop further - the latter with assistance from enterprises and offered mainly on a spare-time basis - but enrollment in technical/skilled worker training schools should not be allowed to decline given the existing major manpower shortages. Furthermore, the general low utilization of staff, equip- ment and facilities in these schools suggests that they could increase their enrollment considerably, with reasonable additional costs, if they used a mixed boarding and day-school system. Better use of existing facilities would reduce, though not eliminate, the need for new buildings. 14. Attempts are being made to broaden the curricula of technical and skilled worker training schools and reduce the number of specializations offered. These changes aim to make technicians and skilled workers more flex- ible and adaptable in using new production techniques and work methods, and facilitate labor transfers and industrial restructuring. A review and revi- sion of curricula would be even more useful if accompanied by a survey of school facilities at the provincial level to assess the need for new or remo- deled facilities - particularly for technical programs in vocationalized secondary schools. 15. About 80Z of the students in China's technical schools have a Eull junior and senior secondary education as a base for their technical studies. This is a high entrance leveL, which increases costs for both the public and the students, mostly without corresponding benefits in learning or skiLls. Technical and skilled worker training schools should generally require 8-9 years of general education as a base. Shorter postsecondary courses could be justified, as an exception, for a minority of students. 16. The administrative and managerial responsibility for technical/ vocational education is divided among many line ministries and their subordi- nate agencies. This allows good vertical cooperation within the system. Horizontal cooperation between schools run by different agencies is, however, limited, which leads to underutilization of staff and facilities, duplication of teaching, and unnecessariLy large student catchment areas. 17. The Government has embarked on a program to vocationalize about 50% of upper secondary education. This program, which may cover skills for jobs in agriculture, commerce, and industry, as well as personal services is designed to alleviate apparent skill shortages as well as reduce heavy pressure on university entrance. However, the experience of other countries v with secondary vocational education has been mixed. Such programs are of much higher cost than general secondary, but it is not always clear that they necessarily produce more productive workers, particularly in industrial trades. In some countries secondary vocational schools suffer from inappro- priate equipment and outdated curricula. There may also be a zendency, already evident in China, to overspecialize thereby limiting the adaptability and even trainability of workers at later stages of employment. A system of secondary education that achieves intermediate general qualifications might provide the required flexibility for quickly responding to the demand for a particular type of manpower and be preferable to provision of specific skill training in a narrowly defined specialization at the secondary level. These considerations suggest that the Government should proceed with caution and only after careful assessment of alternative models in China and eLsewhere. An effort at school location planning should precede full implementation of the program. To minimize costs, the Government should make full use of the staff and facilities in existing and new schools and in enterprises. Revised and broadened curricula are needed, as well as expanded and improved production of didactic material's. Finally, means of improving the status of technical/vocational education need to be found. Teacher Training 18. China employs more teachers than would be considered necessary in many countries. Student/teacher ratios are low, and teachers have correspond- ingly low workloads at all levels. Approximately one of every two teachers is unqualified according to official government standards. Preliminary projec- tions to the year 2000 show that the aggregate need for teachers in basic and upper secondary education (including technicaL and vocationaL education) would probably decline somewhat. There would be a decrease in the demand for class (primary) teachers because of the predicted enrollment decline, while the demand for academic and technical and vocational subject teachers would increase. A summary of the projections on teacher requirements is given below. - vi - Stock and Future Need for Teachers (million) 3 years' upper secondary 9 years' basic education education Academic Vocational/tech- Class Subject subject nical subject Year teachers/a teachers/b teachers/c teachers Total 1983 stock 5.4 2.1 0.5 0.1 8.1 2000 need 3.8 2.3/2.1 1.3/1.2 0.8/0.4 8.2/7.5 Change -1.6 +0.2/+0.0 +0.8/+0.7 +0.7/+0.3 0.1/-0.6 /a For the six lower grades, i.e. the present primary schools. 7T For the three upper grades, i.e. the present lower secondary schools. 7c Includes teachers in primary teacher training schools and teachers in academic or theoretical subjects in technical/vocational programs. Source: World Bank estimates. 19. These projections suggest that the preservice training of primary teachers needs to be reduced. A large percentage of the primary teacher stock is unqualified, however, and there is a need to continue inservice upgrading programs until the end of the century. In secondary education, preservice teacher training programs would need to double their output, and this has been planned for. Current inservice training of secondary teachers would also need to continue. 20. Preservice teacher training colleges in China currently emphasize subject knowledge at the expense of teaching in pedagogy, psychology and edu- cation. This emphasis is understandable given the neglect of subject know- ledge during the Cultural Revolution. Nevertheless, strengthening of both teaching and research in pedagogy and in psychology is suggested. 21. The common administrative separation of preservice and inservice teacher training in China prevents full and efficient use of staff and facili- ties and reduces feedback to the colleges on actual teaching experience. Since China's inservice and preservice teacher training needs will vary from year to year, maximum flexibility is needed in the system. Such flexibility would be promoted by administrative cooperation. 22. Despite recent salary increases, teaching is not seen as an attrac- tive profession in China. This is a difficult issue to resolve. High quality teachers contribute more to good student performance than other inputs, and recruitment of able students to teacher training institutions is therefore a high priority. It is also important to deal with the negative influence of the rural responsibility system on the recruitment and work of primary teachers. - vii - Costs and Financing 23. China has considerably increased spending on education during the last few years but nevertheless devotes a smaller share of GNP to education than many other developing or deveLoped countries. This is particularly true of primary education. In higher education, student costs remain high prima- rily because of Low internal efficiency. Teacher salaries are low, in both absoLute and relative terms. 24. The WorLd Bank has estimated the recurrent cost implications of ir.troducing a nine-year basic education system and a vocationalized upper secondary school system that would enroll 50% of students in technical and vocational programs. The recurrent cost of the necessary teacher training has aLso been estimated, as has the capital cost of equipment needed. The World Bank does not, however, have the requisite knowledge of existing school faci- lities to estimate capital needs for building construction or rehabilitation. 25. The Government should be able to meet the recurrent costs of a nine- year basic education system, though the recommended increases in teachers' salaries would probably increase expenditure above the current level. The vocationalization of upper secondary education will increase recurrent costs for consumables, school maintenance and teachers (even if student/teacher ratios can be increased). Recurrent costs for teacher training are projected to double, but unit costs could remain unchanged. 26. Equipment costs for the universal basic education program should be reasonable. Equipment ccsts for the vocationalization program would be high, even if cost saving measures (such as using facilities in double shifts) are systematically applied. 27. Tentative estimates (in 1982 prices) have been made of the public recurrent and capital costs of education. It has been assumed that CNP will triple by the end of the century and that teachers' salaries will increase in line with the growth of GNP per capita. The recurrent cost of education is estimated to increase from Y 14 billion in 1982 to Y 33-38 billion by the year 2000. The recommended raise in teachers' salaries relative to other wages would further increase total recurrent costs; for example, a 50% increase in teachers' salaries would add Y 9-10 billion to recurrent costs in the year 2000. The capital cost for equipment is estimated at just over Y 21 billion from 1982-2000, or about Y 1 billion per year. The cost of building construction and remodeling is likely to amount to 10Z of annual recurrent expenditure. Total annual public expenditure on education might thus amount to Y 46-52 billion in the year 2000. This figure is equivalent to about 3.1- 3.5% of estimated GNP in that year; this percentage is similar to the present allocation for education and still below the average for other LDCs (4-5%). CHINA: ISSUES AND PROSPECTS IN EDUCATION 1/ 1. BACKGROUND 1.01 The World Bank's report entitled China: Socialist Economic Develop- ment (Report No. 3391-CHA, issued in June 1981) included an annex on education and training which described developments in education up to L981 and discussed the overall manpower situation in China. The annex covered the objectives, structure, dimensions, concenc, quality, technology, administra- cion, staffing, costs ane financing, and external and internal efficiency of current education and trainine. 1.02 The annex concluded with an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the system. It stated that the development of human resources in China since 1949 had in many ways been commendable. Expansion in primary school enroll- ment had made two-thirds of China's adult population Literate. The secondary school enroLlment ratio was considerably higher than that of comparable countries. Adult nonformal education, particularly programs run by industry and often executed with the help of mass media, had played an important role in improving the labor force. In many respects the quality of China's education was good. The education program had been carried out wich little foreign assistance after the USSR withdrawal in 1960. Self-help schemes were important and had been more successful than in many other developing societies. China had furthermore carried out its education programs at an affordable cost. 1.03 There were, however, problems in China's education. A serious shortage of high-level manpower in China had been caused primarily by the disruptions to university education during the late 1960s and early 1970s. The system of technical/vocational education had been unable to produce suf- ficient middle-level technicians to meet the needs of agriculture, industry, transportation and other sectors. The broad expansion of primary and general secondary education had taken place without sufficient attention to quality: there were too many unqualified teachers and too many schools without appro- priate facilities and equipment. Though the self-help schemes had many advan- tages, they had tended to increase differences in schooL quality by location, a serious question in China where rural-urban disparities were large. At all levels of the education system, internal efficiency was low as measured by the utilization of staff and facilities, and as compared with other societies. 1.04 The annex summarized its findings and recommendations by stating that: (a) expansion and improvement of higher education should be seen as the first priority, including both preservice and inservice education; 1/ This paper focuses on basic education, technical and vocational education, and teacher training. (b) expansion and improvement of technical/vocational education was the second priority. For financial reasons much technical/vocational education would have to take place within enterprises, in addition to being offered in formal schools, and the program would have to be executed over a fairly long period; (c) teacher training wocLld be a precondition for the execution of China's education programs, and for economic, social and pedagogical reasons it should emphasize inservice training; (d) planned expansion of general education to cover the first nine years of schooling was feasible considering favorable demographic trends, but increased attention should be paid to qualitative improvement by means of improved curricula and learning materials, and an expansion of the production of didactic materials was suggested; (e) efforts should be made to improve the internal efficiency of educa- tion at all levels; and (f) the expansion and improvement of education could be achieved without increasing recurrent expenditures beyond the average range for developing countries, measured as a percentage of GNP_ Assistance for capital investments would be needed, however. 1.05 These recommendations (a) - (f) have been reflected in subsequent World Bank education lending and in the dialogue between Chinese authorities and the World Bank. Education projects approved so far cover the development of China's comprehensive universities, of higher education and research in agriculture, of health education, of the television university system and of a new polytechnic (short-term technical college) system. Proposed future activities include various universities run by technical ministries, technical/vocational education, teacher training, curriculum development and the manufacture of didactic materials, including textbooks. Recent Developments 1.06 Development of the education sector in China since 1981 has been characterized by systematic implementation of government policies and programs established in the late 1970s. The Government's major principles established at that time were stated as follows: " (a) education must be geared to the needs of socialist construction and modernization, and the proportion of expenditure on and investment in education must be adjusted and raised; (b) education is to be developed effectively and steadily in accordance with the policy of readjusting, restructuring, consolidating and improving the economy; (c) in view of the large population, and poor economic foundation, there should be priorities in the development of education and resources should not be evenly distributed among too many projects; (d) the relationship between popularization and the raising of standards should be handled correctly; the effective universalization of primary education should be a priority, and enough attention should be given to education in areas inhabited by minority nationalities; (e) educational structure must be transformed; (f) a diversified educational system should be adopted so as to achieve greater, faster, better and more economic results in educational development; and (g) efforts should be made to raise the leveL of teachers and to further strengthen the teaching force." L.07 These policies were supplemented in 1982 with the following specific statements by the Ministry of Education to all, provincial, county and city bureaus of education: Ca) primary and secondary education should strive to develop moral, physical and intellectual capacities and should not over-emphasize examination scores. The schools should not concentrate on the graduating class and ignore the others; and Cb) key schools (K-schools) are necessary for ensuring the quality of education, However, since primary education should aim at becoming universal, there will be no entrance examination to the key schools. All students to the K-schools will be admitted from the neighborhood." There have been no major changes in these policies, though financial constraints have apparently forced the authorities to postpone the completion dates for some programs. There have, furthermore, been no major changes in the objectives, structure, content, technology, staffing, costs or financing of China's education since 1981. 1.08 While educational development has been fairly stable, changes in other economic sectors have affected the environment in which the sector functions. The most significant change, introduction of a "production responsibility" system, has occurred in rural areas (where 80% of the popula- tion lives) in an attempt to improve incentives and management at all levels of the agricultural econoury. Under this system, individual families are allocated land by the commune and then have full responsibility for farming it. The household has certain obligations (to pay their share of taxes, contribute to the welfare fund and help meet state procurement requirements) but beyond these may retain the remaining agricultural production, or sell products on the open market. 1.09 This is a significant change from the old system, under which incomes were shared more ar less equally among commune members regardless of individual productivity. For education, this change has had unexpected conse- quences. Attendance at school may now result in income foregone (children - 4 - could instead work productively on the farm or in the house, or even tend younger children, thus freeing parents for productive tasks). In addition, locally hired teachers, who were previously given work points like other workers and shared profits accordingly, also receive a plot of land under the responsibility system; since they also farm the land for profit, this is likely to become a priority demand on their time, to the neglect of their performance in the classroom. 1.10 Similar changes have also been instituted in urban areas. but only on a limited basis, and their impact has so far been much less. A system of productivity bonuses has been introduced to link earnings to output, but earnings differentials appear to offer workers only a Limited incentive to increase productivity. Disincentives to increased productivity remain. Employment still tends to be secure. Managers have little control over the recruitment, promotion and dismissal of workers. The controls on Labor mobility promote life-time assignments within one enterprise and offer few possibilities for transferring as a reward for good performance. Workers are linked to their enterprise in many ways; pensions, housing and health care are usually provided through the enterprise. Employees may also receive education and training in enterprise-sponsored programs. This immobility of labor leads to overspecialization (a problem as China undergoes structural transformation and moves towards becoming a middle-income economy) and prevents the spread of experience and new technology. 1.11 Other changes affect employment opportunities. The system of controlled labor allocations is no longer applied across the board: it is still used for most postsecondary graduates and skilled manual workers, but not for those with limited skills; graduates from the newly established postsecondary polytechnics also seek employment independently. Enterprises may now examine job applicants sent to them by labor bureaus. The unemployed, especially the young, are being encouraged to organize small collective enterprises or create opportunities for self-employment. The hiring of labor (up to eight people) is now permitted. 1.12 In 1979, China introduced a policy promoting the one-child family, with the aim of limiting the population to 1.2 billion by the year 2000. The impact of the one-child policy already appears to be greatest in the major cities, where third order births account for less than 5Z of the total. Moreover, the responsibility system in agriculture seems to be leading to more children being born to rural families, presumably because land allocations usually depend on household size or labor force, and a second or third chiLd provides another productive worker. These developments suggest that while labor will likely continue to be abundant in rural areas, a labor shortage may occur in urban areas in the 1990s if the present restrictions on population movement are not changed (in fact some liberalization of rural-urban migration rules has already occurred to permit peasants to work in small towns). 1.13 The implementation of China's education policies needs to be seen in the context of these developments in other sectors. This annex analyzes selected trends in education and discusses the impact of some external factors on education since the first report was written in 1981. It focuses on educa- tion subsectors and issues that were either not sufficiently covered in the 1981 report or not known at that time. It reviews quantitative education developments with the perspective of the Government's policies and the population data obtained from the recent census. 1.14 Specifically, this annex first discusses the proposed introduction of a universal, nine-year basic education system. Secondly, it deaLs with the kinds of technicallvocational education offered outside the universities. Thirdly, it looks at the demand for and supply of staff in primary and secondary education and issues related to the training of teachers. The annex concludes with a review of the costs and financial issues in education. 2. UNIVERSALIZATION OF BASIC EDUCATION 2.01 The Government of China has repeatedly stressed its policy of "popularizing" primary education, i.e. making it universal. The Government also aims to make lower secondary education universal in urban areas by 1990 and nationwide by the year 2000. This in effect would introduce a universal nine-year basic education system similar to those in many developed countries. Moreover, the Government aims to make upper secondary education universal in urban areas by the year 2000, but has set no date for rural areas. 2.02 These targets will have a far-reaching impact on the primary and secondary education system. After significant expansion of both levels of education from 1949 onwards, enrollments have begun to decline in recent years, because of both lower intake and higher dropout rates. Staffing levels have not decreased commensurate with drops in enrollment, thus exacerbating inefficiencies in staff utilization. To improve school quality selectively, the K-school philosophy was reintroduced in the late 1970s, but a reaction against this policy has recently occurred. These existing problem areas in the two levels of basic education will need to be considered in light of the changes now proposed. The remainder of this chapter thus first describes in more detail the recent developments in basic education noted above. It then considers what implications these issues in basic education have for the universalization strategy and how they might be tackled as part of this strategy. The chapter concludes with a brief review of prospects for achieving the Government's goaLs in basic education by the year 2000. Recent Developments in Primary and Secondary Education (a) Enrollment Trends 2.03 Primary education expanded rapidly after 1949: enrollment, at 24 million students in 1949, had reached 136 million by 1983. The estimated - 6 - net enrollment ratio 21 was 25Z in 1949 and, by government estimates, about 90X in 1983. The latter ratio is high for a country at China's stage of development and compares well with the average 68Z enrollment ratio for the 6- 11 age group in the rest of the developing world (Appendix A2). During the last 30 years, adult literacy in China has improved from some 20% of the population in 1949 to over 70% in L983. The Latter rate is also impressive and compares with a developing country median of 50-55Z. 2.04 A closer look at recent enrollment figures nevertheless reveals some negative developments (Appendix B, Tables 8 and 10). AbsoLute enroLlment in formal primary education peaked at 151 million students in 1975 and has thereafter decLined by about 15 million students. It was estimated that the net primary school enrollment ratio might have been higher than 90Z in the mid-1970s. The ratio leveLed out in the late 1970s, and declined during the first few years after the introduction of the peasant responsibility svstem, and has apparently begun to increase again. Enrollment in spare-time primary education for adults and teenagers who never completed their primary education went down from 21 million in 1979 to 8 million in 1983. 2.05 There remains, furthermore, a regional enroLlment gap. Although close to 90% of all children in China enter primary schooLs, only one out of four counties has achieved universal primary education. These are concentrated in cities. There is thus an enroilment gap between urban and rural areas, where some 80Z of the popuLation lives and where most Chinese will continue to live at Least until the end of this century. Just as serious are the disparities in educational enroLlment among different rural localities. In some poor areas, school attendance appears to be unsatisfactorily low, especially among girLs - and significantly lower than official enroLLment data suggest. Although enrollment statistics in all countries overstate actual attendance, and although it is not possible to assess the impact of such overstatement on China's overall enrollment ratio, measures to improve the accuracy of the statistics collected couLd assist in formulating appropriate policies. 2.06 An estimate of dropout rates in primary education can be made from the enrollment statistics by grade (Appendix B, Table 1.1). The exact percentage of full year repeaters is not known but is comparatively low in all grades, with the possible exception of the final (examination) grade. By contrast dropout rates are high. On average, one student out of ten drops out between each grade. This implies that only 65% of the students who commence Grade 1 wilL be in Grade 5 five years later. Most of the other 35X will have left school. The dropout rate for Grade 1 is particularly serious. Many rural students apparently start primary school but drop out after a few months, possibly to re-enroll in Grade 1 for the next academic year. Statistics further show that 10-15% of Grade 5 students do not graduate. The flow chart (Appendix B, Table 1.1) showing the progress of primary school pupils in 1979- 83 thus verifies the Chinese Government's "9-6-3" statement, i.e. that 9 out of 10 children commence primary education, 6 complete it and only 3 graduate 2/ The net ratio excludes, but the gross ratio includes, under- and over-age students. i.e. that 9 out of 10 children commence primary education, 6 compLete it and only 3 graduace with good perforl wce. Understandably this waste of human resources is a cause for concern.- 2.07 if not improved, the current enrollment situation may well cause the Chinese literacy rate to stagnate around 70%. Good literacy in Chinese, a major aim of China's primary education, is said to require five years of schooling. rf this is true, only two out of three Chinese children who enter primary schooL wilL eventuaLly become literate, i.e. the two who complete five years of education. The current Literacy rate would only improve to the extent that literacy courses are organized for school dropouts, for those who never enrolled and for illiterate adults. These courses have played an impor- tant roLe in China over the last decades and had enrollments of 5.3 million students in 1983. Experience worldwide indicates, however, that the formal education of children is more efficient than the nonformal education of adults and teenagers in achieving permanent Literacy. 2.08 Development of China's formal secondary education since 1949 has in some ways been even more impressive than that of primary education (Annex B, Table 10). In 1949, secondary schools enrolled about L.3 million students, corresponding to a gross enrollment ratio of only 2%. Enrollment had grown to 68 million by 1977, with a gross enrollment ratio of about 46% based on Bank estimates of the size of the corresponding popuLation groups. The latter ratio compares favorably with the 35% average enroLlment ratio for developing countries. 2.09 The enrollment trend over the past few years has been less favor- able. Overall enrollment for formal secondary education (i.e. including both lower and upper secondary schools) has decreased from a peak of 68 million pupils in 1977 to 46 million in 1983, i.e. a decline of 32% or 22 million pupils. This corres onds to a large decline in the gross enrollment ratio (to approximately 30%).- During the same period the developing country average increased to 39% and that of the advanced countries to 83Z. 2.10 Enrollment decreases over the last few years have been similar at the lower and upper secondary levels. In 1979, lower secondary education enrolled 46 million students, which corresponds to a 63% gross enrollment ratio for the 12-14 year age group, based on current World Bank estimates of China's population. Enroilment decreased to 38 million students in 1983, or 46Z of the relevant age group, i.e. a reduction in the enrollment ratio of 17%. 3/ China's primary school pupils nonetheless perform better than primary school children of the same age in LDCs with the same income level, where completion rates are often below 50%. 4/ 34% if students in extended primary schools at the lower secondary level are included. - 8 - 2.11 In upper secondarv education, the ongoing conversion from a two-year to a three-year system has not prevented a dramatic decrease in total enroll- ments. Enrollment in all formal upper secondary education (including technical and skilled worker training schools, and primary teacher training schools) was 14 million in 1979, corresponding to 36% of the 15-16 year age group; in 1983, enrollment had been almost haLved to 8 million students, or 16X of that age group (or only 1OZ if the three-year age group, 15-17 years, is taken). 2.12 Intake of new students has declined and dropout rates have gone up during the last four years. Enrollment in lower se::ondary Grade I was 18 mil- lion in 1979 but declined to 14 million in 1983. The transition rate from primary to lower secondary education went down from 83Z in 1979 to 65Z in 1983. Since available data indicate no major changes in the size of the relevant age group during this period, the decrease must reflect a reduction in the number of primary scnool graduates applying for further education. The decrease :s said to have caken place primariLy in rural areas. Dropout rates between grades have continued to be high, averaging 12% between Grades I and 2, and 22% between Grades 2 and 3 during 1979-83. At the upper secondary level, the intake of new students declined from 7 million in 1979 to less than haLf that figure in 1983. The transition rate from lower secondary to all types of upper secondary schools was 37% in 1979 but decreased to 24% in 1983. A reduced intake to general upper secondary education reflects (in contrast to the situation at the lower levels) at least partially the Government's policy of diverting students from academic to technical/ vocational fieLds, thereby reducing pressure for university places. The intake of technical schools of different kinds has, however, not yet increased enough to compensate for the drop in the intake to general upper secondary schools. The few data available indicate that dropout is less of a problem in upper secondary education than in primary and lower secondary education, averaging 9% between grades during 1979-83. Failure rates in the final examinations are about 10% or less. 2.13 During this period of decline in formal secondary school enrolLments, enrollment in nonformal secondary education has increased from 4.7 million to 9.6 million (1982). But the 4.9 million increase in nonformal secondary enrollments was not sufficient to offset the 22 million decline in formaL enrollments during 1977-82. Moreover, the nonformal system caters pri- marily to young adult workers (to make up for missed educational opportunities during Lhe Cultural Revolution), rather than providing additional skilled labor. It is, in addition, generally more costLy to provide secondary educa- tion to adults than to teenagers, because of income foregone and other econo- mic factors. Thus China's well-developed system of nonformal, in-service secondary education can compensate for lost educational opportunities and up- grade the labor force, but it can only partially substitute for a well- developed, formal, preservice system. (b) Staff Utilization 2.14 In view of declining enrollments, efficiency in teaching staff uti- lization has worsened at both the primary and secondary levels. Primary school teaching staff has increased slightly while enrollment declined by -9 - 11 million students during 1979-83. The student/teacher ratio has consequent- ly gone down from 27:1 in 1979 to 25:1 in 1983 (the median ratio for other LDCs is about 35:1). The class size has been kept almost constant, at around 34, which implies that teachers' weekly workload - by international standards, already a low 20 periods - has gone down further. The number of full-time administrative staff has also increased by 28X (to over 0.6 million) despite a 6% reduction in the number of primary schools. 2.15 Similarly, at the secondary level, while enrollments in Lower secon- dary education decreased by over 17% during 1979-83, teaching staff only decreased by 10X, which implies that the student/teacher ratio decreased from 19.2:1 to 17.6:1. In general upper secondary schools, enroLlmencs -were rough- ly halved, while teachers declined by only 21%, and the student/teacher ratio consequently decreased from 19.4:1 to 13.9:1. Similar developments reduced the ratios in primary teacher training from 14.0:1 to 11.3:1, in technical schools from 8.6:1 co 5.9:1 and in skilled worker training schools from 11.6:1 to 6.2:1. These ratios might be compared with a median of 21:1 in other developing countries. As in primary education, these low ratios are caused not by small classes but by low teacher workloads, which average 10-12 periods/week (20-25 periods/week are common in advanced countries 57). 2.16 Low student/teacher ratios could be justified if they were proven to improve tgaching. In fact larger workloads with fewer, but better-qualified, teachers - might enhance teaching in China despite comparatively large class sizes. Relative staff increases at all levels of basic education are therefore difficult to justify from a pedagogical or from a financial point of view. (c) The K-School Philosophy 2.17 The rapid expansion of primary and secondary education in China in the late 1960s and early 1970s led to a serious deterioration in school quality. Many teachers were unqualified and many schools lacked facilities and equipment for even basic teaching; this situation persists today. During the late 1970s, the Government considered it necessary to take drastic mea- sures to improve school quality by providing better inputs to the system. As it was financially impossible to do this nationwide, it was done selectively, by reintroducing the K-school concept. A few schools in each province and county were designated as K-primary and secondary schools; they were allocated extra funds (their funding was 2-3 times that of regular schools) and provided with better facilities, didactic materials and teachers. K-schools enrolled the best students and through rigorous efforts by the staff provided them with an excellent education. The K-schools set standards for other schooLs but 5/ A survey in one European country showed that its teachers nad among the lowest annual workloads of public employees despite a weekly load of 21-30 periods. 6/ The proportion of unqualified teachers is said to be 40-50% in primary schools, 70% in lower secondary schools and 40Z in upper secondary schools. - 10 - mainly prepare their students for further education (the K-schools can almost guarantee their students eventual entrance to institutions at the next level of education) and could, for example, offer instruction in foreign languages, which because of teacher shortages may not always be possible in regular schools. 2.18 Some regular schools applied the K-school philosophy by opening K-classes. This development led to an overemphasis on preparing students for further education and on the performance of the most able students. Insuffi- cient attention was paid to preparing less able students for adult life, so that average or below average students lost interest in their schooling. The gap between high and low performers increased. By the early 1980s this led to a reaction against the most extreme application of the K-school concept and some of the more negative consequences at the lower education levels have been eliminated. Intraschool streaming and establishment of K-classes have now been stopped. Moreover, student intake to K-schools has been localized and student catchment areas have been reduced. Through administrative action supported by provincial education bureaus under MOE, the K-school concept is being redefined as a vehicle for diffusion of improved curricula, materials and teaching practices to local schools. K-schools now comprise IZ of primary and about 4% of secondary schools; K-students may amount to 5% of all students at the primary and secondary levels (counting both K-schools and K-classes). Issues for Basic Education Strategy 2.19 Introduction of a nine-year system of basic education poses problems in light of the recent developments in primary and secondary education discus- sed above. A fundamental question, however, concerns the aims of universal education in China and the best means of achieving them. Continued concern and remedial action with respect to enrollments and dropout rates is required. If the recent pattern of a decline in school attendance that followed in the wake of the reforms in the rural economy were to persist, this could seriously imperil efforts to universalize basic education. (The related problem of increasingly inefficient staff utilization is considered in depth in Chapter 4, which assesses the future demand for and supply of teachers in basic education). A second issue concerns the role of the K-schools and their appropriateness in a nine-year basic education system. Finally, implementa- tion of the Government's basic education strategy poses several management problems. These issues are discussed below. (a) Aims of Basic Education 2.20 In China, as in most other developing and developed countries, basic education has two major objectives. It should first educate the majority of pupils for adulthood and their life in society. It might be the only, and therefore terminal, formal education for most pupils, who are mainly the children of farmers and of unskilled workers in industry and the service sector. Appropriate mastery of speech, reading and writing of the mother tongue and a competent handling of basic mathematics have been the cognitive skills that basic education has inculcated into pupils. The socializing task is also important and includes familiarization with behavior and beliefs that society considers important. Second, basic education should also prepare able - 11 - students for further studies at the secondary level, and possibly in universi- ties, and eventually for leading roles in their communities. 2.21 It has frequently proven difficult to arrive at a reasonable balance in these two objectives. Countries have attempted to achieve the dual objec- tives of basic education in different ways. Some have favored offering students study electives during the last few years of basic schooling. Students not interested in further education can take Less demanding courses (e.g. an easier course in mathematics) or even drop subjects (such as foreign languages), and also choose prevocational subjects. Students wanting to pur- sue further education can focus on pureLy academic courses. This type of system seeks to group students by their objectives rather than their ability, but is nevertheless believed to lead to ability streaming. It is claimed that no study program in a basic education system should be terminal, but all programs should allow students to pursue further education, if necessary with remedial or preparatory programs. 2.22 A basic question concerns the ultimate disposition of lower secon- dary school graduates. The transition rate from lower to upper secondary education has decreased during the last few years (para. 2.12). Thus the per- centage of lower secondary graduates entering the labor market with no job training is increasing, and universalization of lower secondary education is likely to accentuate this trend. 2.23 Similarly, as universal education is extended, even partially, to the upper secondary level, the appropriateness of the present academic empha- sis of secondary education will need to be reviewed.7/ At this level, preparation for the university entrance examination has been a high priority, as shown, for instance, in the introduction of a three-year curriculum. This has led to an overemphasis on examinations and on subjects examined for university entrance. Students who enter university are reasonably well prepared for advanced studies, at least in natural sciences and in engineer- ing, but they comprise only a small minority of all academic secondary school graduates (10-15%). As a second best choice, another 10-15Z of graduates enter postsecondary technical schools. The remaining 70-80% of graduates leave school with a general education but no other job preparation. 2.24 The Government is therefore faced with the need to provide graduates with training to benefit society and the country's development, but it cannot meet the educational and vocational aspirations of all students. It is seeking the structures, curricula and selection methods that would best achieve a reasonable balance between the demand for and supply of secondary education and minimize pressures for further education. A vocationalization 7/ Only some 20% of upper secondary school students in China are in technical/vocational education, compared to 40-50% in some advanced and newly industrialized countries. - 12 - program 8/ for upper secondary education represents the Government's major initiative in response to this issue. The program will be discussed in Chapter 3. (b) Demand for Basic Education 2.25 As noted earlier (paras. 2.04 and 2.09), the decline in enrollments, that continues most clearLy at the lower secondary level, may make the Govern- ment's targets for universal education difficult to reach. They could delay the achievement of full literacy and, in the wider perspective, jeopardize achievement of the four modernizations. A better understanding is needed of the factors that have contributed to the recent decline in enrollments, part of which is due to traditional attitudes about the value of education and part to policies in other economic sectors. The Government has taken action to reverse the present trend, and further actions that could make basic education more attractive and promote attendance are also described below. 2.26 Successful primary education can lead to further education and even- tually to a socially and economically better Life, and this continues to be a power.fuL reason why poor peasants and people from other economically deprived groups accept great sacrifices to send their offspring to school. In this respect poor people in China differ in no way from those in other countries. But whiLe education is perceived as a way to a different and presumably better life, the current stratification - in access to and in the quality and goals of basic education in China - may serve as a disincentive to attendance for those at the bottom of the system, i.e. in the rural areas. (Student performance, rather than attendance, is the main concern for city schools). The occupational rigidity and geographic immobility of Chinese citizens, particularly in rural areas, further reduce educational choices. Primary schools are a local responsibility and a family is limited to the schooling available locally. Rural parents are generally well aware of the limited opportunities for their children to advance to further education and may see little use in their children attending a primary school with this aim. 2.27 ImplementatiGn of the agricultural responsibility system (paras. 1.08-09) has further reduced the holding power of many rural primary schools. Under this system, more farm work and increased production directly increase family incomes, so many rural parents prefer to have their children work on the far7 or in the household rather than go to school. The responsi- bility system,9 which in itself is sound, has unintentionally reinforced the perception common in rural areas of LDCs that the income foregone in sending 8/ Under this program, some generaL upper secondary schools will offer classes in technical/vocational subjects, while maintaining programs in academic subjects, and others will be fully converted into "vocationa- lized" secondary schools that offer only technical/vocational programs. 9/ The negative impact of this system on the quality and motivation of locally hired teachers, together with ways of reversing these developments, is discussed in paras. 4.35-37 below. - 13 - children to school - instead of having them tend domestic animals, do simple work in the fields or just look after younger children - is not compensated by possible future income increases because of literacy and numeracy. Another disincentive is the direct cost of education. Students usually pay a few yuan per bemester for textbooks and tuition. Some especially poor students may be exempted. This may seem Like a minor cost, but many parents, particularly in poor rural areas, may feel that it is more than they can afford and not worth the investment. Moreover, fees in some areas have apparently recently increased as a result of increased local financial self-reLiance in basic education. 2.28 PhysicaL inaccessibility is also a constraint to universalization of basic education. Many areas in China are densely populated, so that schools are close to children's homes and easily accessible. But in other areas - not just in the North or Northwest - students would have to walk long distances to get to schooL. A long distance between home and school has been found to be a serious deterrent to school attendance worldwide. Since 1979 the Government has closed some 58,000 primary and 47,000 secondary schools primarily because of their low quality. These closures have probably increased school inacces- sibility in many places. 2.29 Recent Government Actions. The Government, through the information units at the township level, is trying to popularize education and relay find- ings about its profitability and other benefits. Research in other countries on the value of education has concluded that literate farmers are more produc- tive farmers and more efficient in the management of farm resources. A prime factor in increased productivity is that educated farmers tend to be more willing to adopt new inputs and to use them more efficiently. On average, farm production is said to increase by about 9% as a result of a farmer having completed four years of primary education rather than having no schooling. Moreover, farmers with a secondary education appear to do even better under the new responsibility system than those with only a primary education. Other studies have indicated that education also affects in other ways the well- being of society as a whole. Literacv among females can have a positive influence on infant and child mortality, as well as on children's nutritional status. It can also affect fertility, by changing demand for children and contraceptive acceptance. In addition, children of better educated mothers generally perform better in school. 2.30 The Government has also attempted to promote school attendance by allowing class schedules and academic years to be changed to accommodate the employment needs of the agricultural seasons. School holidays have been moved and school days shortened. Spare-time primary schools have been established and itinerant teachers hired. (These teachers serve mountain villages with few children, by holding cLasses during a morning shift in one village and an afternoon shift in another.) Some counties report that these measures have increased enrollment. (See also para. 2.39.) 2.31 For some time, the Government has been considering making attendance at primary schools mandatory. Policies to make education compulsory were adopted by the industrialized countries early in the development of universaL basic education; similar policies were adopted by many developing countries in - 14 - the 1960s and 1970s. These have met with varying success, depending largely on the methods and effort of enforcement. In China, a policy of mandatory completion of primary education has already been adopted by Jiangsu Province; parents mu,t pay a fine if their children are not allowed to complete primary education.- ° In general, however, enforcement is likely to be Less of a problem in China than in other countries, because social pressure can play a large part in instituting government policy. 2.32 Possible Additional Measures. In poorer areas, more financial support from higher levels of government, including the central government, will be essential to improve enrollment and educational quality. Parents in these areas cannot afford to pay large enough fees. Nor can township and village governments cover the costs involved from their Limited revenues, par- ticularly because in poor localities there are comparatively few township and village enterprises. En richer areas, the present trend of increased finan- cial self-sufficiency in basic education is defensible. But in poorer areas, this trend is aggravating educational disparities that are already unaccept- ably large. More generally, the learning environment in rural primary and lower secondary schools could be improved to increase their attractiveness. The gap in the amount and quality of facilities available to rural and urban schools could be reduced through improvements in the quality of textbooks, supply of additional didactic materials, and improvement of the physical classroom environment. However it would not be feasible or desirable to supply rural schools with sophisticated learning equipment and communication systems. (Forty percent of China's population, mostly in rural areas, have no access to electricity, which would prevent effective use of some contemporary teaching methods.) 2.33 More could also be done to improve school accessibility and reduce the distance between a student's home and his school. Wider use might be made of multigrade teaching, whereby a school's student catchment area could be several times smaller than it would be under a single grade system. This would be economically feasible in areas in China with only 5-10 students in each age group within a one hour commuting distance. A system of biennial rather than annual student intake might also be feasible in China's remote areas. The system of itinerant teachers was found to be taxing on the teachers in European countries that used this scheme in the past. In loca- tions where the population is even thinner or nomadic, a boarding school system would seem to be the only feasible solution. Research in other societies has shown that the above measures do not necessarily reduce the quality of learning. Students in ruraL multigrade classes have performed as well as students in traditional single grade classes, and in some regards (e.g. social adjustment) have done better. 2.34 It has been suggested that introduction of special subjects in the curriculum of rural basic schools in China might make schooling more relevant, 10/ China Daily, June 29, 1984. - 15 - and presumably more attractive_ In other countries,-l this has been done by combining teaching of academic subjects with, for instance, work in fields and gardens and carpentry. It was beLieved that this type of diversified basic education would be more relevant for adult life (i.e. for chose not continuing their education) and help convince parents of the economic value of schooling. 2.35 The introduction of "special" or "practical" subjects in basic schools, and of separate programs for those who would enter the Labor market and for those who would continue their education, has seldom achieved its objectives when tried in other countries. The specialized programs have not made basic schooling more attracti"-e and the schools have seldom been able to provide training "of relevance.'42- Moreover, the teaching ot practical subjects has not made the academically incLined more appreciative of manual skills, nor has it made rural life more attractive to city dwellers. The programs have, in most countries, been unfair to those coming from the peasant and worker classes or from other disadvantaged groups. They have, furthermore, reduced the possibility of identifying and developing a pool of able pupils from disadvantaged groups, as these children have almost invariably been relegated to the less demanding programs, regardless of their academic potential. 2.36 While the above paragraphs discuss some reasons for the school enrollment decline and possible means of dealing with the issue, this question deserves a more comprehensive study. A study of the situation, its causes and possible remedies could be undertaken by the Central Institute for Education Research, which conducts research for the Ministry of Education. Cc) AppLication of the K-School Concept 2.37 The role and effectiveness of the K-schools vary by education level, as well as by the location of these schools in urban and rural areas. Con- tinued application of the K-school concept as part of a basic education strategy raises one general issue - equity/equality - and one specific issue, namely its role in the universalization of basic education. The former issue is relevant because it heightens the quality and access gap between rural and urban areas. The latter issue needs to be considered for each level of education. 11/ Attempts to "vocationalize" primary education have been common in developing countries where universal primary education has been considered a necessity, but the percentage of students who would pursue further education has been small. 12/ It is claimed that when countries can afford a universal nine-year basic education system, the economy is so developed that the content and quality of prevocational subjects that can reasonably be offered to students 13-15 years of age are of limited use in the adult working community. Under any circumstances these subjects need to be followed by additional vocational training or apprenticeship schemes. - 16 - 2.38 Effect on Equity and Equality. A considerable gap exists between the quality of rural and urban schools. Urban primary schools are state schools. whose teachers are paid by the Government; they are reasonably well supplied with facilities and materiaLs. Rural schools on the other hand are now the responsibility of the townships, which cover most capital and recurrent costs. Despite a state subsidy for their locally hired teachers, rural communes are having difficulty providing competent and dedicated teachers in the face of more rewarding jobs in the community (paras. 4.35- 37). Textbooks are available at all schools, but rural schools often lack appropriate and safe buildings, furniture and other didactic materials. Most K-schooLs are in urban areas. They receive more funds and as a consequence the urban-rural gap has wicened. 2.39 Although urban and ruraL schooLs offer basically the same curri- culum, rural schools may adjust the curriculum to local conditions, by offer- ing education full-time, half-time, spare-time, in the slack season or winter, and at other times (para. 2.30). Urban schools and K-schools on the other hand are almost invariably six-day, full-time primary schools. The flexibi- lity of rural schools is an asset in many ways, but also a potential liabi- lity: attendance may be irregular, which has negative consequences for Learn- ing. 2.40 Discussion of the equity/equality issue has, as mentioned, aLready occasioned some changes in application of the K-school concept. The neighborhood has been made the catchment area for urban K-schools in an attempt to reduce inequality. China's housing policy, which sometimes concentrates professionals and cadres in some urban areas and blue-coLLar workers in other areas, could, however, reduce the impact of this policy. Another change is the abolition of entrance examinations for K-primary schools. But again this may, depending on the type of examination, reduce the chances of gifted children of blue-collar workers entering these schools. Thus in general it seems that urban schools, reinforced by the K-schooL system, prepare their students for further education and high level jobs, while rural schools prepare their students for adult life and manual, Lower skill jobs. 2.41 Impact on Universalization Strategy. Despite recent decreases, the ratios for primary and lower secondary education could be above 9G% after several years. Such high enrollment in lower secondary education will require a system that offers equal educational opportunities to all at the primary level. There is therefore reason for the Chinese authorities to consider a unified primary education system (without K-schools) that is seen as a basis for the further education of all citizens, from both rural and urban areas. The complete abolition of K-schools at the primary level has in fact recently been discussed. Application of the K-school concept at the lower secondary level might exclude bright students from further education and ultimately from a career that benefits society, because of their family background or late maturation. The risk of not identifying or fully developing talented youngsters is thus increased once a highly structured system of regular and K-schools is extended to nine y-ars. Furthermore, studies of European systems in the 1950s and 1960s showed that less able students at this level lost more from not being taught in classes together with brighter pupils than brighter - 17 - students gained from being taught in homogeneous, high ability classes- These findings suggest chat application of the K-school concept, even just at the upper part of a nine-year system of universal basic education, would be waste- ful both in economic and social terms over the medium and long run. 2.42 K-schools at the upper secondary level, i.e. beyond the basic education system, present less of an issue because of the more important role this level of education plays in preparing students for further education. It is easier to identify able students at the end of their adolescence with tests that emphasize aptitude (rather than knowledge acquired through schooling) and that have some predictive value. It is, moreover, necessary to screen stu- dents for progression from a universal lower secondary system to selective academic upper secondary education. An upper secondary K-school system would therefore not necessarily be harmful. The composition of the student body in K-upper secondary schools wouLd need to be continuously studied, howev r, and possible imbalances (e.g. in representation by sex or minority groups 3t) could be correcred through quota systems. (d) Management Issues 2.43 Efficient management of the system is hampered by a lack of data in several areas. The condition of physical facilities is often known mainly through anecdotal evidence or through rough aggregate estimates. The actual supply of important inputs for learning, such as libraries and science equip- ment, is not known. It is thus not possible to assess the performance of the system satisfactorily as measured by inputs - and even Less as measured by outputs (a review of examination papqrs and results provides some information, but this is of limited usefulness)._' There are, furthermore, insufficient data available to assess quantitatively the equity of China's education system. The rural-urban disparity has probably increased recently, but the magnitude of this disparity is not yet known. 2.44 Much time-consuming work is needed in several areas if the universal nine-year basic education system is to make the required contribution to China's economic and social development. A complete analysis of China's basic education system would require: (a) a survey of physical facilities; (b) an IEA-type study; and (c) a provincial or even prefectural breakdown of school enrollments by grade, sex, ethnic group, and rural/urban residence as related to age group and the composition and distribution of the population. This information is only partially available. The work under (a)-(c) above could 13/ Differences in language, culture and economic development may discrimin- ate against students from minority ethnic groups however carefully the examination tests are developed and evaluated. 14/ Studies to measure student achievement, similar to those conducted under programs of the International Association for the Evaluation of Education Achievement (IEA), would be more useful. This type of study relates inputs to outputs and allows education decision-makers to compare alternative scenarios and take appropriate corrective actions. - 18 - be joint research projects carried out by the Central Institute for Education Research and Chinese universities, possibly in cooperation with the Interna- tional Institute for Educational Planning. A thorough study of the enrollment trend in primarv and secondary education could be undertaken by the CentraL Institute for Education Research (para. 2.36). In addition, the Government needs to consider the implications of its policy in such areas as curriculum development and teaching methods, examinations and evaluation, promotion poLicy and planning of physical facilities. These aspects of management are discussed below. 2.45 Curriculum and Teaching. Universalizing nine years of basic schooling would require curricula revisions and research on course content and teaching methods, particularly at the lower secondary level. This is because the learning situation in a school changes considerably when it is to meet the learning needs of the total adolescent population (many of whom will not go on to higher education) rather than those of a minority who will pursue their education further. Course content and learning methods need to change accordingly. Experience from OECD countries indicates that considerable time and effort are needed to develop curricula and to conduct research on course content and teaching methods. 2.46 Examinations and Evaluation. Appropriate testing, examination, and evaluation methods must also be created for a basic education system. They must be suitable for the whole population group, not just the few students continuing to upper secondary and university education. Standardized tests that help teachers and administrators assess the quality of the system rather than the performance of individual students might be deveLoped. They could partially replace or supplement the current comprehen 've examination systems at the end of primary and lower secondary education.i.' 2.47 Promotion Policy. Promotion policy in basic ejylacion is an issue in some countries. It is claimed that grade repetition _ in a universal school system may reflect more the competence of the teacher than the potential and performance of the student, and therefore it should not be supported. Rather, students should be given remedial teaching in the subject they failed and not be forced to repeat a year in aLl subjects. Others claim that automatic promotion with or without remedial teaching has a negative impact on overall school performance, and that grade repetition is therefore a necessity. It may be said that there is not enough evidence to support the latter view. The threat of repetition does not seem to increase the incentive to study among children in this age group. (Other more constructive factors such as parental support, teacher effectiveness and textbook supply appear more important for good performance). Repeating a year in all subjects does 15/ The Ministry of Education has recently suggested that examinations at the end of primary education be abolished in urban areas. 16/ In fact repetition in Chinese primary schools appears to be quite low for most grades; more serious is the problem of dropouts from Grade 1 who re- enroll for the next academic year (para. 2.06). - 19 - not seem to improve a student's knowLedge and skills enough to justify the extra cost to him and society. It may lower the overall quality and cost effectiveness of the system. 2.48 Planning of Physical Facilities. A 5-6 year primary education system only requires classrooms and some simple administration and storage areas. The addition of three more school years to establish a nine-year system of basic education implies inclusion in the curriculum of subjects such as physics, chemistry and biology, which even if taught jointly as "science" require some special facilities and equipment. These requirements and those caused by the introduction of "practical subjects" originally led authorities in many countries to construct "nuclear schools" or "central schools" in towns, townships or major villages, so that the student catchment area was sufficient to justify economically and fully utilize the special facilities (laboratories and workshops). In sparsely populated areas, students had to board or travel long distances to school. The larger size of these schooLs also allowed them to hire the specialized teaching staff they considered necessary for science and "practical" subjects. 2.49 The need to provide special rooms and teachers in basic education schools has, however, been questioned, as has the concept of central schools with their large catchment areas. During the Last few decades, didactic science materials have been developed for basic education that can be effi- ciently used without laboratories and do not even require that schools be electrified. Contrary to previous beliefs, the difference in achievement at these education levels between students who have access to laboratories and those who do not appears comparatively small. Under World Bank projects in many countries involving science and "practical" education, schools in remote and poor areas have, furthermore, had difficulty in running and maintaining laboratories and other more sophisticated facilities (including equipment such as tape recorders and overhead projectors). Teacher training in many developed societies has also become less specialized, so that teachers can teach at least three subjects in the upper basic education grades (7-9) satisfactorily. (Some LDC research indicates also that a high degree of teacher specialization does not guarantee high instructional performance at this education level.) Student transportation and boarding have also been found to be expensive and often complicated. In some countries, arguments are therefore now being made to revert to smaller neighborhood schools throughout the basic education system, even if these schools are less well endowed with facilities and specialized staff. 2.50 Extension of basic education to nine years in China will require thorough forward planning. Variations in population distribution and composi- tion, demographic trends, migration patterns, urbanization, topography, climate and transportation means are considerable in China. Rigid rules on school location, size and physical facilities should therefore be avoided and much attention given to local conditions and means. There is, nevertheless, a large need for "school mapping" at the county, prefecture and municipality level. The experiences of the International Institute for Educational Planning (IIEP) in Paris could be of great use to Chinese authorities in this respect. Moreover, the introduction of universal lower secondary education, when seen as part of a unified, nine-year basic education system, need not - 20 - necessarily require huge investments in buildings, equipment and specialized teaching staff (para. 5.14). Prospects to the Year 2000 2.51 Primary Level. The World Bank has made projections of future enrollments in pyiary education and the impact on teacher demand and education costs.- If available demographic data are correct, the number of seven year-olds, the entry age for primary education, and of aLl children in the primary school age group would decline almost everv year until the end of the century because of the fertility decline. Primary school enrollments would therefore continue to decline even as primary education becomes universal. This decline will facilitate achievement of universal primary education because the demand for classrooms and teachers will also decline. Reintroduction of a six-year primary education system nationwide couLd be accelerated. It has been assumed that primary education would be universal by 1992 and that the current completion rate of about 65Z would improve to 95Z. All schools would have converted to a six-year system by the year 2000. Under these assumptions, primary school enrollment would continue to decline from 136 million in 1983 to 99 million in 1990 and then Level out at around 95 million students during the late 1990s (Table 2.1). Table 2.1: PROJECTION OF PRIMARY STUDENT ENROLLMENTS, 1983-2000 Total Population Cross enroll- Year enrollment age 7-12 ment ratio (mln) (mln) 1983 136 144 0.94 1985 124 130 0.95 1990 99 }11 0.89 1995 88 91 0.97 2000 94 94 1.00 Source: World Bank estimates. 2.52 Based on the World Bank's preliminary projections, it should be possible f China to achieve universal primary education with qualified teachers,- 7 a reasonable supply of didactic materials and a good physical school environment. The prospects for a high quality of education in China by 171 The projections are based on partial census data available as of early 1984. 18/ The supply of teachers is dealt with in Chapter 4. - 21 - the year 2000 are good, and the country wouLd aot face the constraints of manpower and finances that have beset most other developing countries trying to universalize primary education. 2.53 Secondary Level. The World Bank has also made projections of enrollment in lower and upper .secondary education for the period 1983-2000, again using available demographic data and assumptions derived from current government policies. The projections (Table 2.2) show that the current student enroLlment in lower secondary education would graduaLly increase from 38 million in 1983 to a peak of 48 million in 1988 (this is still below the peak of the mid-1970s). Because of demographic developments, enrollmenc would decrease during 1989-92 to 39 million. Enrollment fluctuates between 39 and 43 million until the end of the century, when enroLLment of 42 million corres- ponds to universal enrollment. The Government shouLd be able to achieve its goal of universal Lower secondary education, and thus of nine-years' universal basic education, without serious financial or staffing probLems because of favorabLe demographic deveLopments. Table 2.2: PROJECTION OF STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AT THE LOWER SECONDARY LEVEL, 1983-2000 Total Population Population Gross enroll- Year enrollment age 12-14 age 13-14 ment ratio (mln) (mln) (mln) 1983 38 83 81 0.44 1985 41 77 79 0.51 1988 48 66 70 0.61 1990 45 59 61 0.73 1992 39 56 57 0.76 1995 43 54 55 0.79 2000 42 45 43 0.92 Source: World Bank estimates. 2.54 It was assumed that universalization of upper secondary education in urban areas by the year 2000 would be accompanied by a gross enrollment ratio of about 30Z in rural areas and 55-60% nationwide, up from the current lOZ. This would equaL recent ratios at this education level in Europe. The Govern- ment has examined the possibility of vocationalizing upper secondary education by 1990 (para. 2.24), which implies that half of all upper secondary students would be in some type of technical/vocational education program (e.g. in industry, agriculture, social services, comerce or teacher training) by that time. The current system, under which about half the academic students are in 2-year courses and half in 3-year courses, would eventually be replaced by a system offering only a 3-year option. Intergrade promotion rates in upper secondary schooLs are high at 98%, and are assumed to remain so. World Bank projections (Table 2.3) show that total upper secondary school enrollment - 22 - (general and technical/vocational) would increase from the current 7 million students to 19 million in 1988. It would then level out at 20 million in 1989-92 before slowLy increasing to 29-30 milLion students by the end of the century. The number of students in technical or vocational programs would increase from the current 2 million to 14-15 million (from 20% to 50% of the total at this level). Table 2.3: PROJECTION OF STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AT THE UPPER SECONDARY LEVEL, 1983-2000 /a Number of Gross Z technical/ technical/ enroll- Year Total vocational vocational Population Population ment enrollment students students age 15-17 age 16-18 ratio (mln) (mln) (mln) (mln) 1983 7 27 2 73 73 0.10 1985 12 34 4 81 77 0.16 1988 19 44 8 77 79 0.22 1990 20 50 10 70 74 0.29 1995 23 50 11 56 57 0.46 2000 29 50 14 45 51 0.56 /a Upper secondary students include those in general upper secondary schools, vocationalized secondary schools, technical schools and skilled worker training schools. Source: World Bank estimates. 2.55 The current secondary schooL projections and those done for the 1981 Economic Report were both based on stated government plans; a comparison shows that the overall enrollment targets have been lowered somewhat and are more realistic. Total secondary enrollments in 1990 would, under the current assumptions, rise to 65 million students, versus 71 million in the 1980 pro- jection. This 8% reduction will fafifitate implementation of the Government's program and the supply of teachers. 19 Capital investments for technical/ vocational education would, however, become very large, as already indicated in the 1981 report and discussed below. 19/ Projections of the supply of teachers are dealt with in Chapter 4. - 23 - 3. TECHNICAL AND VOCATIONAL EDUCATION 3.01 Formal technical/vocational education after 1949 foLlowed the Soviet model. It originally comprised two basic types of schools: (a) technical schools, often referred to as specialist schools, which train middle-Level technicians through a mixture of 2-5 year courses at the upper secondary and postsecondary levels; and (b) skilled worker training schooLs, which offer mostly 3-year technical/vocational courses at the upper secondary level. The Government subsequently introduced a third type of formal technical/voca- tional education (para. 2.24) by giving such training: (c) in classes at upper secondary schools that otherwise still offer academic programs, or in general secondary schools that have been fully converted into vocational institutions and offer 2-3 year courses in technical/vocational programs only. These schools are referred to as vocationalized secondary schools. The training offered at institutions (a) and (b) is very specialized. Various ministries report 40-60 specializations in schools under their administration, with an aggregate of several hundred for each type of school. The training offered in category (c) schools is less specialized and has a common core of general subjects in all programs. Recent Developments 3.02 Technical and vocational education has probably been more seriously affected by abrupt policy changes since 1949 than any other part of the educa- tion system. During the Cultural Revolution in the late 1960s and early 1970s, many technical and skilled worker training schools were closed down. School buildings were converted into factories or housing; equipment was dismantLed and handed over to various enterprises or even scrapped. Teachers were reassigned or dispersed to the countryside. 3.03 These developments resulted from an attempt to create a society that consistently emphasized equality and eliminated the distinction between cate- gories of labor, as reflected not only in the labor market and in the commu- nity, but also in the schools preparing students for work and adult life. To achieve this, all schools were to offer a common program, comprising a mix of studies and labor, for all students; streaming of students into general and technicallvocational streams was seen as favoring students of bourgeois background at the expense of students with peasant or other manual worker origins. 3.04 These policies have resulted in an acute shortage of technical and vocational skills. An estimated 15-20 million Chinese missed out on needed or desired technical and vocational education and training. Those entering the labor force lacked pre-employment training and enterprises were forced to - 24 - recruit people with only academic credits.201 As a result, the education profile of the active labor force is now unbalanced. The work force is char- acterized by a low percentage of skilled workers, technicians and trained managers and by a skewed distribution of staff by age group with the best qualified being those trained before the mid-1960s many of whom will enter retirement in the next 15 years. 3.05 The lack of technicians is particularly severe. Many industrial ministries and enterprises report that only 5X or Less of their technicians have a university or technical school degree (some surveys have shown only 2.8Z and 3.7Z, respectively), while surveys of other developing and advanced countries show an average of 8.7%. In agriculture, Chinese statistics indicate that only 0.1% of the agricultural labor force are technical workers, which should be compared with a global average of 0.5%. The estimate is even lower if only those working in rural areas are counted. Overall, the percentage of the total labor force classified as technicians is 1.3Z; this includes teachers, health personnel and others. The ratio of university- trained staff to middle-level technicians is often 1:1, whereas 1:3 would be a more appropriate ratio. This imbalance has made it difficult to find appro- priately qualified staff to be shop floor supervisors, designers, laboratory researchers, and building site managers. Either unqualified workers or overqualified academics must of necessity take these assignments. Enrollment Trends 3.06 Technical/vocational education has not achieved balanced expansion with general secondary education. The number of technical schools increased from 500 in 1950 to 2,000 in 1960 and the number of students from 0.1 million to 1.0 million, before declining to pre-1949 levels in 1970. Skilled worker training schools followed a similar pattern. In contrast, general secondary education has developed steadily: the number of schools increased from 5,000 to 30,000 and then to 80,000 in 1950, 1960 and 1970, respectively, while the number of students grew from 1.5 million to 15 million and then to 25 million in the same years. 3.07 While China's overall secondary school enrollment ratio compared well with the average for other developing countries, the ratio in technical! vocational education did not. The percentage of schools and students in technical/vocational education out of the total for secondary education 20/ A Chinese study has claimed that it required about five years of general upper secondary school education plus apprenticeship training to make a lower secondary school graduate into a productive skilled worker under the Cultural Revolution system, compared with two to three years if the graduate had received formal vocational education. The study maintains, furthermore, that the longer training was 2.5 times more expensive. - 25 - declined from 15-20Z in the 1950s to IZ in L970,21. which compares with IL% in other developing countries and 20X in advanced countries at that time. 3.08 Formal technical and vocational education was fully reconstituted in the late 1970s. An ambitious plan to increase enrollment in technical/voca- tional programs to 9 million students over 10 years, with an annual output of 2-3 million graduates, was launched. By 1983, technical schools had enroLlments of 0.69 million students, with an estimated 0.14 miLlion studying at the secon- dary level. In addition, skilLed worker training schools enroLled 0.52 milLion students. Furthermore, 1.22 million students were taking vocational programs in vocationalized secondary schools, up from 0.23 million students in 1979. This gives a total of 1.88 milLion technicaLivocational students at the secondary level, or some 5% of all secondary level students and over 20% of all upper secondary level students (Appendix B, Tables 3.1 and 3.2). This is a consider- able increase over the 1970 level but is nonetheless lower than the ratio 25 years ago. 3.09 A detailed analysis of developments since l177 reveals an uneven development of formal technical/vocational education. 2 While enrollment in vocationalized secondary schools run by the Ministry of Education has expanded considerably, cechnical schools run by the technical ministries have experienced a 4% decrease in enrollments over the last five years and skill7d worker training schooLs no less than an 18% decrease in enrollments.23 The simultaneous drop in agricultural and industrial technicaL school enrollments and increase in enrollments in similar programs at vocationalized secondary schools is difficult to explain given current policies and claims of manpower shortages. Enrollments in economics, business and law have increased in all schools, however. 3.10 There has been an increase in enrollments in nonformal technical programs at the secondary level run by various enterprises, from 2.2 million in 1979 to 3.3 million in 1982. These nonformal programs were originalLy intended to offer inservice (upgrading) training for workers. But the number of job applicants with only a general primary or secondary education forced enterprises to organize preservice vocational training and technical education programs Eor 21/ This figure includes the many students in primary teacher training and health education. 22/ The quaLity of an analysis of technical/vocational education is limited by shortages of data on, for exampLe, student background and achieve- ment. The Central Institute for Education Research could again perform the function of information and data management for this type of education (cf. para. 2.44). 23/ The increase in the numbers of technical schools (from about 2,000 to 2,200) and skilled worker training schools (from 3,000 to 3,400) over the last five years makes these decreases in student numbers difficult to explain (the number of upper secondary schools has been halved, from approximately 40,000 to 20,000). - 26 - new employees.24/ Current nonformal programs therefore comprise a mixture of preservice and inservice training. These programs strain the resources of many enterprises, and their increased cost-awareness and profit orientation will make them less willing to run large preservice programs. TechnicaL Manpower Demand and Supply 3.11 The World Bank estimated in 1980 that for economic growth and staff replacement, China would require about 200,000 middle-Level technieians and 1,200,000 skilLed workers per annum in industry and agriculture.- The annual output of trained manpower at that time was 50,000 and 400,000, respectiveLy. By 1983, the output for industry and agriculture combined was about l00,000 graduates from technical schools and 350,000 graduates from skilLed worker training schools and technical/vocational secondary schools. 3.12 The remaining need for middle-level technicians and skilled workers is being met to some extent through nonformal programs. The output from nonformal inservice courses is estimated at around 600,000 technicians and skilled workers per annum. To this could be added the output from the employment training centers, although their short courses cannot produce fully skilled workers. It can be assumed that approximately half of the annual need for industrial and agricultural technicians and skilled workers is met through the formal school system. In industry the remaining needs are met through nonformal programs run by enterprises mainly to meet their own needs. Fewer nonformal programs so far meet the training needs of the agricultural sector. The following paragraphs discuss possibLe means of meeting manpower demand by economic sector. 3.13 Industrial Sector. Industry's nonformal education comprises both spare-time training (evening and correspondence courses and self-study), and part-time or full-time day courses. Spare-time courses are economical and utilize teachers and space at little additional cost, and with no cost to pro- duction of students or enterprises. Day-time courses entail higher opportunity costs because staff and workers would otherwise be well utilized in produc- tion. Enterprises should therefore focus on spare-time courses for adult employees and reserve full-time day courses for teenagers newly employed or other young people (i.e. it would, in effect, be preservice training). Chinese industrial enterprises have, in contrast to enterprises in many advanced and developing countries, taken an unusual responsibiLity for the education and training of their staff, and they should continue to be important for manpower development. They might, however, increasingly share the responsibility for preservice training with the formal school system (as managed by the Ministry of Education, Ministry of Labor and technical ministries). They could be particu- 24/ In addition, labor service companies and labor bureaus under the Ministry of Labor set up employment training centers offering 2-6 month full-time courses for those "who are waiting for jobs." These centers reached 700,000 students in 1982. 25/ These estimates are conservative. Other estimates indicate a need more than three times higher. - 27 - larly supportive of formal technical/vocational training by providing part-time staff and granting access to facilities and equipment. They could also be active on councils and school boards, advising on labor market needs, skill requirements and curricula. 3.14 Management education has been singLed out as a high priority. Most enterprises claim a serious shortage of managers, at the same time that planned reforms in the management of enterprises will require a different mix of manage- ment skilLs. Universities and specialized institutes should be responsible for full-time, preservice management education and enterprises for inservice, part- time training. Some management training could be offered in technical schools, but their students are generally too young to fully comprehend all aspects of management; moreover, they could only be given managerial responsibility too far in the future for such training at the secondary school stage to be useful.261 3.15 Service Sector. Training for service sector employment has been neglected in the past and needs to be improved and expanded. The increased emphasis in China on consumer needs requires more training for technicians and skilled workers in service industries (e.g. repairers of consumer goods, and staff for shops and restaurants). Some jobs in this sector lend themselves well to preservice institutional training. Suitable programs can be sponsored by municipalities and counties in vocationalized secondary schools, since they would require less new investment in equipment. Training could often be conducted ill existing school facilities after minor remodeling. 3.16 Agricultural Sector. AvaiLable statistics on agricultural manpower are irconsistent but indicate a large training need in China. The shortage of agricultural technicians to work on farms and in extension services is Large (para. 3.05). Efficient nonformal on-the-job training for agricultural workers and technicians is generally difficult to develop, however. Inservice training schemes for agricultural technicians are being organized by the Ministry of Agriculture and should be expanded. Nevertheless, programs comparable in size and content to those for industrial technicians and skilled workers apparently remain scarce because of the constraints of manpower, money and logistics in rural areas. The preservice formal education system will therefore have to play a major role. Many of the vocationalized secondary schools already offer agricultural programs to help meet these needs and new programs are starting. The negative enrollment trend in agricultural technical schools should be reversed and their output at least doubled. Issues in Technical/Vocational Education 3.17 The technical/vocational education system in China is basically sound and quite developed. Compared with schools in many developing countries of the same income level, facilities and equipment are reasonable and the system well managed and monitored from the ministry down to the school level. Although many 26/ This is to some extent also true for university-level management education. - 28 - staff members need retraining, upgrading and sometimes more practical experience, these problems can be solved. 3.18 The Chinese Government is now embarking on a program of rapid vocationaLization at the senior secondary Level. Within ten years, about 50% of all upper secondary students should be in vocational programs (para. 2.54). This reflects China's manpower needs (paras. 3.13-16) and corresponds to its stage of educational development in the 1990s, when 55-60% of the relevant age group wilL enter upper secondary education. Efficient use of the manpower and facilities devoted to secondary vocational education will be essential if the Ministry of Education is to achieve this ambitious program of some 12-13 million students in vocationalized secondary schools. 3.19 The experience of other countries in implementing vocationalization programs has been mixed. Several shortcomings have often (but not aLways) been obser-ied in systems that provide vocationaL education, particularly in industrial skills, in schools: schools can not easily duplicate actual working conditions for students; school equipment is often inappropriate (either outdated or in some cases too sophisticated); teachers may lack practical industrial experience themselves and tend to take a "bookish" approach to what should be "hands-on" teaching; and finally the syllabus may fall behind skill requirements. On the other hand, graduates of vocationaL se-ondary programs generally possess stronger academic background than those who enter the work force without secondary education and are often more able to adjust to changing work requirements including the introduction of new technology or promotion to assignments demanding more advanced knowledge as well as skills. 3.20 In other countries, a sizeable research literature has developed on technical and vocational education, broadly defined, including t financing and the linkages between education and training and employment.77 While the results tend to show that the relatively high costs of formal technical and vocational education are not associated with correspondingly higher benefits, in terms of increased worker productivity, by comparison, say, with -'!.neral education or on-the-job training, the findings are not easily generalized. The returns to investment in technical and vocational education and training are generally high enough to justify expanding these activities, but no broad con- clusion applicable across all countries can be drawn concerning the relative 27/ See for example: F. Block, Evaluating Manpower Training Programs, (JAI Press, 1979), Greenwich Conn.; K. Drake, "The Cost-Effectiveness of Voca- tional Training: A Survey of British Studies," Economics of Education Review, Vol. 2, No. 2, 1982, pp. 103-125; T. Hu, "Studies of the Cost- Efficiency and Cost-Effectiveness of Vocational Education, "Information Series No. 202, National Center for Research in Vocational Education (Ohio State University, 1980) Columbus, Ohio; 0. Metcalf, The Economics of Vocational Training: Past Guidance and Future Evaluations (World Bank Education and Training Department, 1984), Washington, D. C.; and C. Psacharopoulos and W. Loxley, Diversified Secondary Education and Development: A Report on the Diversified Secondary Curriculum Study (World Bank Education and Training Department, 1984), Washington, D. C. - 29 - merits of alternative approaches. Despite planning of major new investments in Chinese technical and vocational education, it appears that research into these questions in China is not yet complete. 3.21 Despite differences in education systems across countries, it is generally agreed that secondary vocational education shouLd focus as much as possible on skills adaptable to a wide range of occupations. One solution is to provide much broader vocational education at the senior secondary level that offers more flexibility for responding to the demand for a particular type of manpower as it becor.es apparent. This type of education would aim to achieve an intermediate level of qualifications on which short successive stages of schooling can build to produce the required manpower. While manpower pLanning can identify broad areas of need (e.g. chemists), it cannot forecast with any accuracy more specific requirements (e.g. for inorganic or industrial chemists). This suggests that for maximum flexibility, the secondary curriculum should be broad, and that more specific skills should be acquired after formal schooling. 3.22 It must be stressed that these general conclusions should be treated with caution and their relevance for China carefully studied. They do suggest, however, tha- it might not be wise to undertake a vocationalization program of the magnitude envisioned by the Chinese Government immediately; if implementa- tion could be phased, the achievements of each phase could be evaluated as the program proceeds. Particularly in China, which has a tradition of enterprises training employees at the work place (para. 3.13), the reLative cost-effective- ness of alternative education and training paths should be carefully studied. 3.23 Moreover, despite the overall favorable assessment of the quality and future prospects of technical/vocational education in China, problems do exist. The main issues that will need to be addressed as the vocationaLization program proceeds are the high degree of specialization, the level of training, shortages of staff and facilities, and administration. An additional problem is the low status of technical/vocational education. These points are discussed below. (a) Specialization 3.24 China's technical schools offer several hundred different programs. The situation is similar in the skiLled worker training schools. Specialization and narrow training have certain advantagas: training can be in-depth so that little on-the-job practice is needed to provide a fully productive worker; learning time and therefore costs are reduced; studenLs are more motivated to study if links between the training and their future job are apparent; and much of the training can be conducted in enterprises, using their staff and equipment, at little extra cost. 3.25 Narrow specialization also has serious disadvantages, both for the Chinese economy as a whole and for the individual in pursuing a career. Achievement of the four modernizations will require large changes in the major economic sectors, such as agriculture, manufacturing, energy and transporta- tion. These changes will require a more mobile, flexible and more highly skilled labor force. This mobility and flexibility are aLmost nonexistent now. - 30 - Most technicians and skilled workers have never changed their empLoyer or major job assignment. They have Lifetime appointments within one agency and often remain in the same workshop. By contrast, the experience of countries that have passed through a period of rapid industrialization suggests that much higher mobility of labor is necessary as workers move from low productivity enterprises and sectors to higher productivity ones. As workers change positions, even within enterprises, the costs of adjustment are Less if technicians and skilLed workers possess broad basic technical knowledge and skills to understand and adapt to new production technologies and tasks. A high degree of specialization and an insufficient general education 2 / base make it difficult for Chinese workers to do this. These changes highlight the importance of a broad educational foundation, onto which specific work skills can be built (cf. para. 3.21). 3.26 Narrow specialization also has costly consequences for the schools themselves. It increases the need for specialized facilities, equipment and staff, which may then be underutilized. Schools need larger catchment areas and as a consequence must bear the expense of providing boarding facilities. Despite large student catchment areas, most technical schools are stilL not able to use facilities, equipment and staff economicalLy. 3.27 Recognizing the disadvantages of too many narrow specializations, some technical ministries are moving to more general technical/vocational educa- tion. For example, the Ministry of Machine Building is considering introducing a few broad disciplines in its technical institutes (which currently have 80 specialties) and technical schools (with 15 specialties). 3.28 Chinese authorities would be well advised to evaluate their tech- nical/vocational education programs and curricula nationwide. The current voca- tionalization of upper secondary education provides an opportunity for such a review. A systematic study could be made of the technical and vocational education and training needs of major enterprises, after which common elements in their needs would be determined. Training could be better coordinated so that local authorities are not running their own highly specialized schools, with the risk of duplication and waste of resources. The review could also cover curricula and teacher supply, as well as the need for facilities, equip- ment and didactic materials. Such a review and the vocationalization program could provide an opportunity for linking schools offering technical/vocational education both vertically to enterprises and technical agencies, and horizon- tally to local authorities through school boards and advisory panels. Such a review would need participation by the relevant technical agencies and the Ministries of Education and of Labor. 28/ Industrial managers generally require workers with a full lower secondary education, but most workers actually have only a primary education. - 31 - (b) Duration and Level of Training 3.29 Since few generaL upper secondary education graduates can proceed to universities, many apply for entry to cechnical or even to skilled worker training schools. While many courses at these schools are designed for such graduates, others are upper secondary courses, with lower secondary education as the base for intake. Acceptance of upper secondary school graduates co the latter courses implies an unnecessary lengthening of the study time to gain a certificate, subject repetition, and extra costs both for the individual and society. (Currently about 80% of technical school students have upper secondary education certificates, though their courses may not require it.) 3.30 Most vocational and technical courses could be at che upper secondary level, occasionally with an additional year. Eight to nine years of basic educatign should be seen as a sufficient but also necessary entrance require- ment.29 Positive discrimination in favor of applicants from lower secondary schools and against those from upper secondary schools might help avoid having "overqualified" students in technical/vocational education. Increasing the intake of lower secondary school graduates in this type of education could reduce the pressure for places in general upper secondary schooLs and the over- all recurrent costs of education. Upper secondary school graduates who do not enter the universities might be offered opportunities for further education by expanding the recently established postsecondary short-term colLeges (poly- technics). (c) Shortages of Staff and Facilities 3.31 The shortage of staff, equipment and facilities is apparently severely constraining the expansion and improvement of technical/vocational education. Many schools lack teachers qualified to teach a contemporary technical/voca- tional curriculum, and the vocationalization program will require many additional teachers. Although physical facilities are reasonable by the standards of many LDCs (para. 3.17), much of the necessary equipment and other teaching materials in classrooms, laboratories and workshops is outdated or not available. Buildings have often deteriorated and are poorly maintained. Some provinces cLaim that the construction of new technical and skilled worker training schools has been forbidden. While a restriction like this has some validity in China, given the general underutilization of school space and the possibilities for remodeling existing facilities (rather than constructing new ones) as secondary schools are vocationalized, the need for new schools should be assessed on a case-by-case basis. 3.32 Teacher upgrading programs, provision of new equipment, and remodeling and renewal of physical facilities are needed. This will require considerable amounts of capital and technical know-how, the latter for staff upgrading and for rehabilitating the teaching materials and equipment industry. Nonetheless 29/ Some lower secondary schools in China's rural areas offer vocational programs which, judged by the experience of other countries, are at too low a level (cf. paras. 2.34-35). - 32 - some actions can be taken to expand technical/vocational education without capital investments. First, the current teaching staff could be better utilized. The workload of China's technical/vocational teachers is often only half that of teachers in OECD countries, and student/teacher ratios are consequently too low. Second, space and equipment utilization could be improved. Most institutions would have to increase their facility and equipment utilization rates by 50X to reach the levels of schools in OECD countries. Third, the high degree of specialization and the administrative structure of technical/vocational education (discussed below) lead to large student catchment areas and therefore the need for boarding almost all students, for which insufficient boarding facilities exist. Accelerating the change to a combined day school/boarding school system could facilitate considerably the expansion of China's technical/vocational education. (d) Administration 3.33 Overall responsibility for technical and vocational education rests with the Ministry of Education, but the operational planning, development and management of most technical and skilLed worker training schools are handled by technical ministries and their subordinate agencies and enterprises. The Ministry of Labor is also a major admiyistrator of training and is responsible for skilled worker training schools.3°/ This administrative setup is typical for planned economies. The arrangement has certain advantages over organization solely under the Ministry of Education: the development of technicaL and vocational education is closely monitored by the sector and ministry concerned, so the quantity and quality of that education can be closeLy related to the needs of the sector it serves; technical and vocational education car. be organized into manageable units, which is important in a country of China's size; and the financing of technical education is facilitated by the close relationship between the consumer (the enterprise) and the products (the graduates) of technical/skilled worker training schools. 3.34 The arrangement also has disadvantages, however. The specialized agencies have narrow interests and their training programs support the current high degree of specialization; they tend to train staff only as broadly and in such depth as is currently and directly needed in their enterprises. This nmeans that education programs may not meet overall manpower needs in terms of either quantity or quality. Moreover, training is often closely tied to pro- duction technologies in the parent enterprises, which may be outdated, and to products that may not meet future demand. It is furthermore difficult to organize a unified system to control the standard of qualifications and certi- fication. Finally, there is a risk of duplication and waste, with overproduc- tion of technicians and skilled workers in some sectors and underproduction in others, and with low use of schooL facilities and staff in one school but shortages in another. 30/ This ministry is important in the context of international cooperation and assistance. Thus the Chinese Government has two agencies dealing with technical/vocational education internationally, both of which are fairly independent. - 33 - 3.35 A change is needed in the administrative structure of formal techni- cal and vocational education, to promote horizontal Linkages and efficiency while retaining the currenc vertical cooperation. This might imply transfer- ring some administration of technical/skilled worker training schools to bureaus at various levels under the Ministry of Education, whiLe creating arrangements to keep professional links to enterprises such as .hose in agri- culture and industry. (It would not imply any change in nonformaL, inservice training, which has so far been very successfully handled by technical agencies and encerprises.) However, major organizational changes of a sector such as education without corresponding changes in related sectors would probably be impractical and politically impossible in a country of China's size and overall administrative structure. Management of the technical/vocational education system needs to be studied to identify other ways of improving horizontal links in the system and of reducing wasce. (e) Status of Technicai/Vocational Education 3.36 As in many other developing countries, the prestige and social status of technicaL/vocational education is low compared to that of academic education. This is so despite a high degree of economic and social equality in China as compared with other countries at the same income level. Students and their parents consider that academic graduates have better career prospects than graduates of technical/vocational education. Technical and skilled worker training schools are perceived as terminal. The high degree of specialization aLso reduces horizontal and vertical mobility within the education system for students in these schools. Furthermore, selection and examination methods that favor cognitive achievement and may have limited predictive value for technical careers distort recruitment to these schools. Technical and skilled worker training schools - particularly those in agriculture - compete poorly in such an environment for the better and most suitable students. The K-school system further increases the existing bias against training in agriculture and industry at the secondary and post- secondary (nonuniversity) levels. There are no easy remedies to these problems, which are of long standing. However, European experience shows that this situation can be changed. Part of the solution lies outside the educa- tion system and relates to the prestige and awards associated with various professions, regardless of salary levels. 4. TEACHER TRAINING 4.01 Development of teacher training programs should be seen in light of current staffing levels and the Government's education policies and targets discussed above. The present situation is generally one of a shortage of qualified teachers but an abundance of unqualified teachers at all levels of the education system. While one need of teacher training is to meet the demand for new teachers throughout the education system, the quality of many existing teachers also needs to be upgraded. This section therefore begins by looking at projections of the demand for and supply of teachers at the primary and-secondary education levels, dealing with both preservice and inservice - 34 - programs. It then deals with four more general issues of teachej 1raining - curricula, structure, administration and the status of teachers.- Teacher Demand and Supply 32i 4.02 Primary Level. World Bank estimates have indicated that enrollments in primary education would decline considerably over the next 15 years, from 136 million in 1983 to around 95 milLion in the late 1990s. The need for teachers would decrease correspondingly. At present, primary schools are overstaffed by the standards of many developing countries, albeit with many unqualified teachers, and overstaffing might increase considerably if correc- tive measures are not taken. 4.03 Preservice training was conducted in some 1,050 institutions with 484,000 students (and 34,000 teacher trainers) in 1979. In 1983, enrollment had decreased to 455,000 in some 860 institutions (teacher training staff had inexplicably increased to 40,000). Output has averaged 180,000 per year over the last five years. 4.04 The World Bank has projected the future need for and supply of primary teachers up to the year 2000 with varying assumptions about: (a) supply (continuing the present supply of new teachers or no supply after 1986); (b) the student/teacher ratio (using the current 25:1 or a gradual increase to the average for developing countries, i.e. 34:1); and (c) the annual staff attrition rate (3% or 5%). A fixed assumption is that most unqualified teachers can be upgraded to a satisfactory level. Several scenarios have been developed and are sunmmarized below (Table 4.1). The need for teachers would decrease from 5.4-5.5 million to 3.8 million. Maintaining the current supply of new teachers (say 200,000 per year) and student/teacher ratio could lead to teacher surpluses of up to 2.2 million. Increasing the student/teacher ratio to 34:1 would further increase the surplus. A complete halt to the output from primary teacher training schools would only lead to serious shortages if the attrition rate were 5%, and even so, any shortage could be offset by increasing the student/teacher ratio to 34:1. 31/ A teacher education meeting in China in the early L980s assessed the issues in teacher training quite well by stating that it was necessary to improve teacher training, establish well-defined standards for teacher certification, enhance the social status of the teacher and support education research. -32/ All predictions of teacher requirements are based on the enrollment projections given in Chapters 2 and 3, and they are thus dependent on the accuracy of demographic data. - 35 - Table 4.1: PROJECTED PRIMARY TEACHER SURPLUS OR SHORTAGE IN THE YEAR 2000 (Million) Constant suppLy of Student/teacher 200,0Q0 new teachers No new teacher ratio per year supply beyond 1986 3% attrition 5Z attrition 3% attrition 5% attrition Current S/IT ratio +2.2 +0.7 +0.0 -1.1 maintained S/T ratio increased +3.1 +1.7 +1.0 -0.2 to economic LDC average Note: Plus (+) sign indicates teacher surplus and minus (-) sign indicates teacher shortage. Source: World Bank estimates. 4.05 Closing all the primary teacher training schools is, of course, not feasible. It would skew the age structure of the primary school teaching staff, and there would be no fresh entrants to the profession over a long period. An important means of renewal would be removed from primary educa- tion. Primary schools would have reduced access to recent developments in education, such as curriculum content, learning methods and student evalua- tion, which are, or should be, provided by teacher training institutions. Several primary teacher training schools must therefore continue to function, but their overall enrollment and output need to decrease to avoid a growing teacher surplus. 4.06 A gradual closing of some primary teacher training schools might be feasible and even acceptable from a quality point of view, since 40% of the staff at these schools is said to be unqualified. Furthermore, their facili- ties are claimed to be worse than those of many upper secondary schools, partly because many of them were moved to rural areas during the late 1960s and early 1970s, were located in poor buildings and had few didactic materials. 4.07 Many advanced countries have faced situations similar to that in China. They have had to reduce primary teacher preservice training and re- employ superfluous staff in primary schools and teacher training colleges. Some colleges were closed and staff retrained. The enrollment decline in pri- mary education has often coincided with the extension of compulsory basic education from six to eight or nine years. Excess qualified staff were then upgraded to teach in the upper grades of the extended system; this helped to solve a teacher shortage in Grades 7-9 of the new system and reduce a teacher surplus in primary education (Grades 1-6). China faces a similar situation with its decision to make lower secondary education universal in the 1990s, - 36 - and similarly it could retrain and transfer some of its better primary teach- ers who have good subject knowledge to junior secondary schools (reportedly about 300,000 primary teachers are overqualified). 4.08 A significant need for inservice training is the result of develop- ments in primary education over the past 15 years. The primary education system expanded by 50Z during che Late 1960s and early 1970s. Both as a matter of policy and necessity, authorities hired many unqualified teachers, such as primary school graduates. 4.09 In 1980, the authorities reported that 53% of the 5.5 million pri- mary teachers were unqualified, i.e. 2.9 million unqualified teachers versus 2.6 million qualified teachers (this figure corresponds to the aggregate of primary teacher training school graduates during the preceding decades). In 1983, a reported 48% of the 5.4 million primary teachers are unqualified, or 2.6 million, whi5h,implies that some 0.3 miLlion have been upgraded during the preceding years. - A recent estimate of the education profile of China's primary teachers is shown below. Table 4.2: PRIMARY TEACHER STOCK BY QUALIFICATIONS AND AGE, 1982 ('000) Level of Qualification Severely Un- Un- Partially Fully More Than qualified qualified Qualified Qualified Qualified Full secon- Less than Some dary school, More than secondary secondary but no educa- TTC TTC grad- Age groups school school tion training graduate uate Total Up to 30 156 235 465 470 49 1,375 30-39 L60 260 470 630 130 1,650 40-49 206 275 412 413 69 1,375 50-54 138 165 138 82 27 550 55 and over 165 165 165 55 0 550 Total 825 1,100 1,650 1,650 275 5,500 Source: Information provided by MOE. 33/ Other sources report percentages of unqualified primary teachers as 401 and 50Z, respectively, in 1980 and 1983. Other claims are that one-third of teachers are qualified, one-third are unqualified but could become qualified through upgrading, and the final third are unqualified and untrainable. In China this is referred to as the 3-3-3 problem. - 37 - 4.10 In 1981-82, inservice training was offered in about 2,100 institu- tions, which are normally separate from preservice institutions. This implies that most counties in Chira have an upgrading program for their primary teach- ers either on a full-time or part-time basis. In addition, there were about 30 inservice colleges at the provincial level and 250 at the prefectural leveL. 4.11 For teacher training at the primary level, the issue is whether to concentrate on inservice education for existing primary teachers (for upgrad- ing or prior to their transfer to lower secondary teaching) or on preservice education to supply new teachers. The Government has claimed that 0.55 mil- lion teachers aged 55 and over will retire early (normal retirement age for male teachers is 60 and for female teachers, 55). Some 0.34 million severely underqualified teachers aged 40-55 will be requited to move into other profes- sions. These moves would correspond to the 3-5% attrition rate assumed in the projections (para. t.04) if they are carried out during the next 3-5 years. Continued innual attrition at this rate would further reduce the number of less qualified teachers, but at least one million would still remain at the end of the century, i.e. about 25% of the needed stock. This percentage is high; 10% or less would be more appropriate and approach the standards of advanced countries. 4.12 The Government has already launched large inservice teacher training programs. A reported 1.3 million primary teachers are taking part in these programs, of which 0.8 million have already completed their training. It has furthermore been stated that 1.7 million teachers would be upgraded during 1982-85. There would be two-year courses for the 0.3 million primary teachers with only a primary education, and 2-3 year courses for the 0.5 million primary teachers with some secondary education. A total of abcut 1.5 million teachers would be trained during the remainder of the century. 4.13 The final aim of this program is to have all primary teachers with teacher training equivalent to two years' postsecondary study. Complete and efficient execution of the program would make most primary teachers qualified by 1990. The program's goal is perhaps overambitious, as is discussed further below (para. 4.28). The facilities are available to complete the program. For financial reasons, however, the program should be conducted on teachers' spare time to the extent possible, rather than being full-time study that requires teachers to be granted paid leave. Wide use of distance teaching would make this approach feasible (para. 4.26). 4.14 Secondary Level (Including Technical/Vocational Education). To assess the need for preservice training, the World Bank has projected the demand for and supply of secondary school teachers up to the year 2000, based on enrollment projections for lower and all types of upper secondary schools (paras. 2.53-55). Several assumptions have been made about enr-ollments, in line with the Government's targets (discussed above): (a) lower secondary education would be universal by the year 2000; and (b) upper secondary educa- tion would be vocationalized and achieve an enrollment ratio of close to 60X by the year 2000. It has further been assumed that the training of secondary school teachers would grow as fast as the overall higher education system. - 38 - This means that the annuaL output of college and university trained academic and technical/vocational teachers would double from 100,000 and 30,000 respec- tively in 1983, to 200,000 and 60,000 respectively in the year 2000. It has been assumed that inservice training (discussed below) would continue - that unqualified staff would be upgraded but not replaced. Student/teacher ratios were calculated using either a constant 18:1 for academic subjects and 8:1 for technical subjects (the curient ratios) or improved ratios of 20:1 for aca- demic subjects and 15:1 for technical subjects, which are nearer the desirable standards of developing societies. The attrition rate for teaching staff has been assumed as 3% or 52 per annum. 4.15 The projections suggest that the current stock of secondary-level teachers of 2.9 million (of whom 0.1 million are in technical/skilled worker training schools) would have to increase to 3.7-4.4 million. The different scenarios depend among other things on assumptions about: student/teacher ratios; the retirement age of teachers; and the attrition rate for teachers (because of death, disability or transfer to nonteaching positions). The actuaL or assumed values for these variables will naturally have a consider- able impact on estimates of teacher supply and demand. The valuec chosen here are considered reasonable, but Ministry of Education planners will need to monitor developments closely, so that projections are updated based on the actual values of these variables. Table 4.3: PROJECTED SECONDARY TEACHER SURPLUS OR SHORTAGE IN THE YEAR 2000 (Million) Student/teacher Academic teachers Technical/vocational teachers ratio 3X attrition 5% attrition 3% attrition 5X attrition Current S/T -0.3 -1.0 +0.0 -0.1 ratio maintained SIT ratio increased +0.4 -0.4 +0.1 +0.0 to economic standards Note: Plus (+) sign indicates teacher surplus and minus (-) sign indicates shortage. Source: World Bank estimates. With the current student/teacher ratios and an annual staff attrition rate of 3%, a doubling of the capacity of institutions that train technical/vocational teachers would meet the demand for such teachers. A gradual doubling in the supply of academic teachers would not suffice: a constant shortage of qualified academic teachers would occur (without even considering replacement of unqualified teachers), mainly because of the large expansion of lower secondary education. With the current student/teacher ratios, but with an attrition rate of 5%, a minor shortage of technical/vocational teachers would - 39 - occur, while the shortage of academic teachers would increase to 1 million. With a gradual increase in student/ceacher ratios, and an attrition rate of 3%, the current annual supply of technical/vocational teachers would suffice. There would be a shortage of academic teachers in the 1980s, but eventually a minor surplus in the late 1990s. With a gradual increase in student/teacher ratios, but with an attrition rate of 5%, the supply of technical/vocational teachers would still suffice while there would be a shortage of 0.4 million academic teachers. 4.16 Under these alternatives the demand for technical/vocational teachers could be met through the projected output from institutions training such teachers. It would be difficult, however, to meet the demand for academic teachers without increasing the output of normal coLleges and universities beyond the assumed doubling (and upgrading of suitable primary teachers). An increase in the student/teacher ratio would also be feasible (to be achieved through increased teacher workloads rather than through larger classes). 4.17 As with primary teacher training, there is a significant need for inservice upgrading of secondary teachers, largely as a result of developments over the past 15 years. During the Cultural Revolution, secondary school enrollments expanded even faster - at 250% - than enrollments at the primary level. This led to a serious shortage of qualified teachers. Lower secondary school graduates became secondary school teachers without any further training; it has even been claimed that primary school graduates were recruited as secondary school teachers. 4.18 There are currently 2.1 million lower secondary school teachers, of whom about 70% are said to be unqualified, and 0.5 million upper secondary school teachers, of whom 40% are claimed to be unqualified. In addition, about one-third of teachers in technical/skilled worker training schools, teaching either academic or technical subjects, are claimed to be unquali- fied. There is a total demand for upgrading of about 1.7 million unqualified secondary teachers. 4.19 Inservice upgrading courses have been established to cope with the shortage of qualified teachers in general secondary schools. About 0.6 mil- lion teachers are currently being upgraded in some 280 institutions. Many courses are on a spare-time basis and last 3-5 years. The annual output of graduates has been 0.1 million. Some 0.2 million teachers are expected to take full upgrading courses during 1982-86. About 0.6 million will receive training on teaching methods and use of equipment. All unqualified academic secondary teachers would take upgrading courses before the year 2000, which corresponds to approximately 0.1 million per annum. 4.20 There does not seem to be a similar large-scale, inservice training program for teachers in technical/vocational subjects. Most of these teachers work for enterprises and local authorities. Many enterprises and agencies have comprehensive upgrading programs for technicians and workers, but none of those observed by World Bank staff has focused on upgrading teachers in tech- nical and vocational subjects. This teaching force is smaller and therefore the absolute number of unqualified teachers is also smaller, so the need for - 40 - higher costs and greater problems of organization and implementation than academic upgrading, because the teaching force is dispersed among many autho- rities. Such inservice training is needed, however, and might well be under- taken by the Ministry of Education, which has not only overall responsibility for education but also a major role in the vocationalization program for secondary education. The Ministry should thus consider upgrading for teachers in technicaL and skilled worker training schools run by technical ministries, as well as for teachers in the vocationalized secondary schools. Issues in Teacher Training (a) Curricula 4.2L Since the late 1970s, the technical knowledge of teachers has been emphasized, but without neglecting the teacher's responsibility to help stu- dents prepare for life in society. According to current policy, teachers should: have a good academic knowledge of the subjects they teach; have a good knowledge of pedagogy and psychology, to know both how to teach and how human beings learn; and be an example to their students through their beliefs, attitudes, behavior and poLitical consciousness (political education would take place not only through teaching but also through the teacher's example). The curricula of teacher training institutes are supposed to reflect these requirements but do so only partially. 4.22 There is a unified curriculum for preservice primary teacher training schools (see Appendix C) but not for preservice secondary teacher training or for inservice education. The curriculum of the primary preservice teacher training schools devotes 84Z of scheduled time to subject teaching, about 6% to pedagogy and psychology, and about LO% to teaching methodology. This is a 3-year course totaling 101 weeks, with an additional 8 weeks of teaching practice and 4 weeks of manual work. In secondary teacher training and in in- service teacher training, the universities and other teacher training institu- tions offer their own programs based on a model supplied by the Ministry of Education and modified to suit local conditions. Pedagogy and psychology account for 2-3% of scheduled time and teaching methodology another 2-3%, while the remaining 95% is subject teaching. 4.23 The curricula of preservice teacher training institutions give subject knowledge highest priority, and the ratio of subject teaching to professional training is weighted towards the former. This is a reversal of the past trend, when subject knowledge was underemphasized. Some secondary teacher training colleges and universities seem now to emphasize subject teaching and basic research in subjects such as physics and chemistry at the expense of teaching and research in pedagogy and psychology. Some teacher training institutions may not even be offering courses in the latter subjects. Teaching practice is also sometimes neglected, particularly in secondary teacher training. (It has been mentioned in the Chinese press that primary and secondary schools do not cooperate with the colleges in organizing teach- - 41 - ing practice.)341 While it is important for Chinese teacher training institu- tions to emphasize subject knowledge and raise the acaderic standards of teaching staff, this should not be achieved at the expense of teaching and research in pedagogy and psychology. 4.24 The World Bank's L981 Economic Report drew attention to the subject specialization in China's general education schools. This involved primary schools using subject teachers in addition to class teachers, and teachers in secondary schools often teaching only one subject instead of two or three. This practice is uneconomical, as it requires larger school sizes to keep all teachers fully employed. It is often unsuitable for pedagogic reasons, as it tends to compartmentalize teaching. During the last few decades, developed countries have tended to integrate subjects (e.g. natural science subjects such as physics, chemistry and biology, and social science subjects such as civics, history and geography) and have one teacher for each group of subjects taught at the secondary level (they continue to use class teachers in primary schools). This approach requires teachers with wide knowledge. It may not yet be feasibLe in China but should be considered in education planning (paras. 2.48-49). 4.25 Inservice teacher training is also subject oriented. This is appro- priate, since participants in inservice courses have generally had several years of teaching practice, but their subject knowledge might be weak if they attended schools and colleges during the CuLtural Revolution. The courses therefore rightly place heavy emphasis on academic performance and the teaching of subjects such as mathematics, physics and chemistry. In addition, courses in pedagogy are often offered on a part-time or short-term basis. 4.26 The Chinese system of preservice and inservice training of teachers shows considerable ingenuity. The courses are organized on a full-time or part-time basis, as correspondence courses, and via radio and television. This ingenuity could be used to remedy the shortage of well-qualified profes- sors in pedagogy and psychology. Greater use of various organizational forms and the mass media, including closed-circuit TV with videotaped programs, would allow teaching in pedagogy and psychology to be expanded and improved despite staff shortages. (b) Structure 4.27 The current preservice teacher training system has three components: (a) teacher training schools at the upper secondary level, which train primary teachers (and preschool teachers) in 3-year courses; (b) teacher training colleges at the postsecondary level, which train lower secondary teachers in 2-year courses; and 34/ This situation is similar to that in some European countries prior to the major reforms after World War II, which modeled teacher training on the American system. - 42 - (c) teacher training universities, also at the postsecondary level, which train upper secondary teachers in 4-year courses. These courses vary somewhat and some last an extra year. The distinction between the training of lower and upper secondary schooL teachers is not very clear. 4.28 The Government is working on a poLicy and program to require two years of postsecondary education for primary teachers. There is aLso a ten- dency to extend the training of Lower secondary school teachers. This exten- sion of teacher training programs in China may neither be educationally neces- sary nor economically feasibLe under the current circumstances. Many advanced countries have until recently considered that primary teacher training can be efficiertly conducted in institutions at the upper secondary level. Raising primary teacher training to the postsecondary level increases the costs both to society and the individual, without necessarily improving teaching. Exper- ience in some countries indicates, in fact, that graduates from secondarv- Level teacher training schools may become better teachers than graduates from the postsecondary teacher training colleges. Graduates in the former category have made teaching their first career choice more often than those in the latter category. They are consequently more motivated and satisfied in their jobs. An extension of the training for lower secondary teachers might be educationally feasible but should perhaps be postponed for a few years. Since a temporary shortage of lower secondary teachers has been predicted, lengthening the teacher training course would extend the shortage by a year. Financing saved by a delay in implementing this change might be better used in other parts of the staff training program. (c) Administration 4.29 The administrative division between preservice and inservice insti- tutions makes efficient teacher training more difficult than is necessary. Several teacher training institutions offer both preservice and inservice training, but many offer only one kind of training. Inservice upgrading of teachers grew in most developed countries during the second half of this century. It was usually considered an advantage to offer preservice and in- service training in the same institutions - but without necessarily merging the programs - because of more efficient use of staff, facilities and equip- ment (teaching could take place also during the breaks in a conventional academic year). It was also considered important that the combination of training could facilitate feedback to the teacher training institutions on the actual experience of inservice trainees, and this experience could be reflec- ted in the preservice programs. In this way, inservice training would con- stitute a valuable link to school life. This linkage is not as well developed in Chinese teacher training as it could be. Moreover, China's need to reduce preservice training while continuing or expanding inservice training in primary education is an additional reason for joint use of staff and facili- ties in teacher training schools. 4.30 There are several other issues in the management of teacher training programs. Physical facilities and equipment are often in poor condition. - 43 - Logistical problems in administering inservice programs concern the boarding of full-time participants or their transportation between home and the train- ing institutions. There is a shortage of professors not only in pedagogy and psychology, but also in foreign languages and the sciences. (d) Teacher Status 4.3t The social position of the teacher irn China has been ambivaLent and has changed over time. Although philosophers Like Confucius and Mencius and politicians like Mao have been considered greac teachers and were highly regarded, the social status of teachers has nevertheLess not always been high. Teaching was often a profession taken up by lower Levei civil servants who did not pass examinations for higher qualifications. The comparatively low status of teachers in China has hampered the recruitmenc of talented people to the teaching profession, a situation that the Chinese Government is still struggling to correct. 4.32 The development of education was a high priority for the new regime in 1949. The Government sought -o improve the quality and status of the teaching profession and made some progress during the 1950s and early 1960s. This changed during the CuLtural RevoLution when many teachers were intimi- dated, even physically abused, and sent for "re-education." Their salaries were lowered to be barely above the subsistence Level. The use of many unqualified teachers further lowered the prestige of the teaching profession. These developments during the 1960s and 1970s have dealt a serious blow to the quality of China's education, as teacher morale and motivation have a high positive correlation to student performance. 4.33 The Government is making great efforts to rectify this situation. Improvements have taken place but problems still exist. Teacher salaries have been raised thr',e times since 1977 and teachers in urban areas, mostly state appointees, do fairly well. The locally hired minban teachers, most of whom teach in rural primary schools, continue to have low salaries. Their salaries vary from county to county but, even taking into account payments in kind and perhaps free or almost free housing, are often only half the salary of the state primary school teachers. Their salaries may be Y 30-40 per month com- pared with Y 60-80 for many state teachers. 4.34 Recruitment problems, which are thus worse in rural areas, have had a negative impact on the intellectual quality of teachers. The academic stan- dards of teacher training institutions have dropped, and 2mploying agencies (provincial and prefectural Education Bureaus) sometimes even reject the grad- uates allocated to their districts. Under these circumstances it is, of course, difficult to find teachers who fulfill the three functions of a teacher defined above (para. 4.21). 4.35 The Chinese teacher is, nonetheless, generally motivated and in many ways industrious despite low pay and ambivalent social status. Teacher absen- teeism has been low and classroom work diligent compared with the situation in other developing countries. Recent developments, particularly in rural areas, may change this. Before the introduction of the responsibility system (para. 2.27), teachers in rural areas were given work points and an allowance - 44 - equal to those of an average comnune or brigade worker. At the end of the year, they shared in the distribution of commune profits according to work points accumulated. In addition, thev received an annual state alLowance. Under the responsibility system, these teachers have been given production responsibilities for a pLot of land. They contract a portion of their production to the brigade or commune buc may selL the rest. They receive no further income from the cormune or brigade, but do still receive the state allowance. 4.36 Under this system, the teacher has good reason to spend as much time as he can working on his plot of land to increase his income without consider- ation of his performance in the classroom, which could deteriorate without affecting his income. Furthermore, if he does not accept the land aLlotment, he cannot increase his income. As a consequence, many teachers spend an incr-asing amount of cime on the land and less time on teaching, which has a negative impact on school achievement and student learning. The deterioration of education is said to have been serious in some parts of China. If suffi- cient attention is not given to the present negative trends in teaching, a situation similar to that in some Latin American countries may develop, where primary teachers spend most of their time pursuing other jobs and neglect their teaching. 4.37 The negative consequences of the responsibility system on the quan- tity and quality of education can and should be removed. 4eans need to be found of relating teachers' income solely to work with their students and instruction time, and to school performance in general. Changes of occupation should not be discouraged however, and teachers in rural areas should not be prevented from taking up farming full time. The incentives to enter and remain in the teaching profession should be positive, including further salary increases. Such increases would be financially feasible, given the overall decrease in the size of the education system and the consequent reduction in teacher demand. They could be justified by suggested increases in teacher workloads and related to performance. 5. EDUCATION COSTS AND FINANCING Background 5.01 The World Bank's 1980 Economic Mission analyzed the costs and finan- cing of education and training in China and concluded that China (public authorities, enterprises and individuals) had spent less on education than could have been expected given the impressive quantitative developments in primary and secondary education. Major reaso.is for such low education expen- ditures were low teacher salaries and limited outlays for educational mate- rials and buildings. Local communities, enterprises and, to some extent, parents had borne a fairly large proportion of the costs of education at the .wo Lower levels. Their ability to bear these costs had varied, however, and differences in the quality of primary and secondary education existed between localities. The unit costs of higher education were high by the standards of other countries and could be reduced. Achievement and efficiency could be improved throughout the education system with minor affordable budget increases and better staff utilization. - 45 - 5.02 The 1980 mission aLso found that financial data on China's educacion system were not always well documented, and it was therefore difficult to get a clear and comprehensive picture of education costs and financing. This general conclusion is still valid. The present analysis of education costs and financing is based on figures from the Ministry of Education's subsequent budgets and information about education expenditures by technical ministries, provinces, municipalities, enterprises and parents. However, the picture is incomplete given that financial responsibility is divided among so many agencies and levels of society. 5.03 This chapter looks flirst at total education expenditures (capital and recurrent) and makes an international comparison. An analysis of costs and financing by education level follows. This analysis is based on the most recent budget information available (i.e. for 1982). The chapter concludes by looking at the financial feasibility of ongoing and planned programs in pri- mary, secondary and technical/vocational education. Current Spending 5.04 Public and private spending on education continues to be small in China - in relative terms and compared with levels in other countries - despite an increase in absolute amounts during the last few years. It was estimated that China spent slightly more than 3Z of its GNP on education in 1979. The percentage remains about the same in 1982. It should be compared with a median of 4-5% in other developing countries and 6Z or much higher in developed countries. Government spending on education as a percentage of its total expenditures has increased from an estimated 6.6% to 7.1Z, but remains much below the median in other developing countries (15.5%) and advanced coun- tries (15%). The Chinese Government takes greater responsibility for welfare and for the nation's economic, social and cultural development than the governments of most developing countries, which implies that the percentage of the budget going to education would be lower in China than in these countries; but this cannot fully explain so large a difference. 5.05 International comparisons of unit costs, measured in US$ equiva- lents, should be made with great caution, given the artificiality of many exchange rates. Caution is particularly advisable when comparing societies with different economic systems. If such comparisons are made using current data, the conclusion of the 1981 report that education allocations are low in China is still valid. The average allocation per student in China has increased by about 25% during the last four years to US$50-52 equivalent. This is, nevertheless, below the average allocation of approximately US$80 per student in the 65 countries of the low-income group with which China may best be compared. 5.06 Per student costs (recurrent and capital) in primary and secondary education, measured as a percentage of GNP/capita, are also low in China com- pared with those in developing and developed countries (Table 5.1). Only in tertiary education does the allocation per student remain high. The alloca- tion per student has remained largely the same in primary and secondary educa- tion. This implies that the increase in yuan/student has just kept pace with the GNP/capita increase. Low salaries in China still explain most of the - 46 - differences between China and other countries in primary and secondary educa- tion. The high cost in university education is caused by low staff and faci- lity utilization rates. TabLe 5.1: TOTAL UNIT COSTS OF EDUCATION AT DIFFERENT LEVELS AS A PERCENTAGE OF CNP/CAPITA /a Other China developing OECD 1979 1982 countries countries Primary education 8 8 14 22 Secondary education 19 23 41 24 University education 411 385 370 49 /a Public recurrent costs only. Source: World Bank estimates. 5.07 The World Bank has estimated that total capital and recurrent education expenditure increased by 40% between 1979 and 1982 in current prices (Table 5.2). Annual capital expenditures have more than doubled and reflect investments in secondary and higher education. Public expenditure accounted for 64% of total education expenditures in 1979, but 74% in 1982, mainly because of the general salary increase for state employed or state subsidized teachers. The private (family) contribution to education has increased to 10% of total education expenditures. The contribution from Local sources has increased in absolute terms but fallen as a percentage of total spending. - 47 - Table 5.2: ESTIMATED TOTAL EDUCATION EXPENDITURES, 1979 AND 1982 (Y billion) Expenditures Private Public ex- by provinces, expenditures Total X penditure enterprises, etc. (books, fees, etc.) ExD. change 1979 1982 1979 1982 1979 1982 1979 1982 Primary education 2.5 4.2 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.1 4.4 6.2 + 50% Secondary education 3.4 5.0 1.1 1.6 0.2 0., 4.7 7.2 + 50Z Tertiary education 2.5 3.7 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.2 4.0 4.9 - 25Z Total 8.4 12.9 3.7 3.9 1.0 1.5 13.1 18.3 + 40% of which: Capital exp. 0.7 1.7 0.7 1.6 - - 1.4 3.3 *135Z Recurrent exp. 7.7 11.2 3.0 2.3 1.0 1.5 11.7 15.0 - 30% Sources: Central Government, local authorities, enterprises and various educational institutions. 5.08 Recurrent expenditures provided through the Ministry of Education have grown even more than the total budget. They have almost doubled since 1977, the first year for which the Bank has data (Table 5.3). Table 5.3: GROWTH OF MINISTRY OF EDUCATION RECURRENT EXPENDITURES, 1977-82 (Y billion) Growth 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1977-82 Higher education 0.78 1.14 1.61 1.78 2.05 2.01 160% Primary teacher training 0.15 0.20 0.24 0.30 0.30 0.33 120% Secondary schools 1.74 2.17 2.40 2.92 3.09 3.49 100% Primary schools 1.57 1.77 1.95 2.55 2.87 3.39 115% Special allowances 0.73 0.81 0.84 0.95 Miscellaneous 0.33 0.47 0.66 0.30 0.93 1.02 Total 5.30 6.56 7.70 8.80 9.24 10.24 90Z Source: Information provided by MOE. - 48 - 5.09 Primary education receives less as a percentage of total public recurrent expenditures in China than in most other countries, while the other two levels of education receive more (Table 5.4). The higher allocations in secondary and tertiary education reflect overstaffing, Low space utilization rates and a high boarding ratio (cf. para. 5.06). Table 5.4: PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF PUBLIC RECURRENT EDUCATIONAL EXPENDITURE, BY LEVEL OF EDUCATION Other China developing OECD 1979 19S92 countries countries Primary education 31 38 49 44 Secondary education 39 40 31 37 Tertiary education 30 22 20 19 Source: WorLd Bank estimates. 5.10 SaLaries as a percentage of total recurrent expenditures on educa- tion are 60%, 55% and 31% in primary, secondary and tertiary education, respectively. Despite recent salary increases, these percentages are Lower than those in other developing countries, where they average 90%, 60-75% and 40-55%, respectively. There are no "right" percentages. The large disparity in primary education reflects some underpayment of teachers in China, but neglect of school maintenance and of supply of materials (rather than over- payment of teachers) in other developing countries. Prospects to the Year 2000 5.11 Recurrent expenditures in primary education are low in China. It has been shown in Chapter 4 that the target of universal primary education can be achieved with fewer teachers because of the predicted population decline. Even if the current comparatively low student/teacher ratio is maintained, the demand for teachers would go down by 30%, from 5.4-5.5 million to 3.8 million in the year 2000 (para. 4.04). The annual output of new teachers could be reduced considerably (by some 15-20%) and still meet the needs for replacement because of retirement, death, etc. The saLaries of primary school staff can be assumed to rise in line with other wages, which would offset any reduction in public costs that might be expected because of the decline in teacher demand. In 1982 prices, expenditure on salaries is estimated at Y 5.6 billion and overall recurrent costs at Y 7.6 billion in the year 2000. Raising teachers' saLaries relative to other wages (to improve the status of the teaching profession) would further increase recurrent costs; for example, a '0Z increase in teachers' salaries would amount to Y 2.5 billion in the year 2000 (for further details, see Appendix E). - 49 - Table 5.5: ESTIMATES OF PRIMARY SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS, TEACHERS AND TOTAL PUBLIC RECURRENT COSTS IN CHINA, 1982 AND 2000 1982 2000 Students (in million) 140 94 Teachers (in million) 5.5 3.8 Public recurrent costs 4.9 7.6 (in Y billion) 5.12 Savings in primary education could be achieved by more consistent use of multigrade schools (instead of single grade schoo?s) and of class teachers (instead of subject teachers) in rural areas. An increase in teacher workloads to the standards of advanced countries would imply additional savings. This increase could be undertaken without reducing class sizes, which average 34 students and are already slightly below the median for LDC countries. The achievement of universal primary education would also reduce the funding needs of nonformal primary education and adult literacy courses. 5.13 Savings achieved through improved internal efficiency could be used to raise quality; for instance the supply of didactic materials and the physi- cal school environment could be improved. Primary teaching as a profession could be made more attractive through further salary increases (para. 4.37). To attract well qualified teachers to rural areas, salaries for rural teachers could perhaps even be set higher than those for urban teachers, to compensate for the obvious hardships of living in rural (often remote) regions. 5.14 The need for capital investment to universalize primary education is more difficult to estimate than recurrent costs. Nationwide surveys of physi- cal facilities and of school equipment would be needed before such estimates could be made. Official Chinese estimates maintain that one million addi- tional teachers and investments of Y 7.6 billion in buildings and Y 1.3 bil- lion in didactic materials are needed for the universalization program. On the other hand, the World Bank estimates indicate that new teachers would only be needed for replacements, while the total stock would in fact have to be reduced. New classrooms would generally not be required, although many exist- ing classrooms would have to be improved. Much additional teaching equipment would be needed. The Chinese estimate implies that each existing primary school classroom would have to be improved at an average cost of Y 1,900 and supplied with some educational materials at Y 320. The former figure appears high given the prevailing labor costs in China, while the latter appears reasonable. 5.15 Recurrent costs in secondary education will increase considerably during the next 15 years. The universalization of lower secondary education, which implies a 10% increase in student enrollment over the 1983 level (to - 50 - 42 million students) by the year 2000,35J will contribute to higher costs. The major cost increase at the secondary level will be caused by more than quadrupling student enrollment in upper secondary education, from 7 million to 29-30 million students, more than half of whom will be in vocational and tech- nical programs (up from around 2 million students in 1982 and 1983). The vocationalization program will be particularly expensive, as effective teach- ing of technical and vocational subjects requires Lower student/teacher ratios than the teaching of academic subjects. This is true even if current ratios in technical/skilled worker training schools are raised to international standards. The demand for secondary teachers would increase from 2.9 million in 1983 to 3.7-4.4 million in the year 2000 depending on student/teacher ratios (para. 4.15). Demand for consumables and maintenance costs are also higher in technical and vocational subjects than in academic subjects. 5.16 The World Bank estimates that average public recurrent costs per student in general secondary schools are Y 90-100, with a salary component of Y 50-70. In technical and skilled worker training schools, per student costs vary greatly at Y 500-1,000, with a salary component of Y 200-400 (reflecting lower student/staff ratios). TotaL public recurrent costs in all types of secondary education are estimated at Y 5.5 billion for 1982, with salaries absorbing about 55%. Costs would be considerably higher in the year 2000, particularly if the current student/teacher ratios in technical/vocational education of various types are maintained. 5.17 Two scenarios have been costed for recurrent expenditure at the secondary level: (a) assumes no major change in current staffing and student boarding policies; and (b) assumes that schools increase staff/student ratios to more economical leveLs and simultaneously reduce support staffs (which are large, particularly in technical and skilled worker training schools). Under Scenario 1, total recurrent expenditure in the year 2000 is estimated at Y 23.0 billion, and under Scenario 2, at Y 18.7 billion. These figures show that a 70% increase in secondary level enrollments, which would require a 30- 50% increase in staff, would cause recurrent costs to increase by 240-320%. An increase in teachers' salaries relative to other wages would cause a further significant increase in the recurrent cost of secondary education; for example, a 50% salary increase for teachers would add Y 5-6 billion to recurrent expenditures in the year 2000 (for further details, see Appendix E). 351 Enrollment will peak at 48 million in the late 1980s. - 51 - Table 5.6: ESTIMATES OF SECONDARY SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS, TEACHERS AND RECURRENT COSTS, 1983 AND 2000 1983 2000 Z change Students (in million) Lower secondary 38 42 Upper secondary general 5 15 Upper secondary vocational/technical 2 15 Total 45 72 +70% Scen. 1 Scen. 2 Teachers (in million) 2.9 4.4 3.7 +50Z/30% Public Recurrent Costs (in Y billion) 5.5 23.0 18.7 +320%/240Z Of which salaries 3.1 15.7 12.0 Of which general education 4.3 11.0 10.1 Of which technical/vocational 1.2 12.0 8.6 Source: World Bank estimates. 5.18 Current projections that the 2 million students in technical and vocational education in 1983 will increase to 15 million in the year 2000 imply that 6.5 million new student places will be needed over the next 15 years in technical/vocational classes, assuming double shift teaching in workshops and laboratories. World Bank estimates, considering changed exchange rates and price increases, show that a total capital investment of Y 13.0 billion, or Y 2,000/student place, would be needed for equipment and materials for technical/vocational education programs. This would be the absolute minimum cost and assumes provision of locally made, inexpensive equipment in addition to equipment imports. It can furthermore be estimated that the provision of equipmenc for the 10 million additional students in academic programs would require at least Y 2.0 billion. The World Bank's estimated per student cost is higher than the Chinese estimate of approximately Y 1,000/place in rural vocationalized schools and only Y 330/place in similar urban schools. No information is available to the World Bank on capital needs for the construction of new workshops and laboratories or of complete new school buildings to provide the needed 23 million new upper secondary student pLaces. Wide general use of double shifts, also for classrooms, would reduce the need for new construction in areas that already have secondary schools. Most of the additional students would, however, live in rural areas where no secondary schools exist, and the building pro6ram would presumably be considerable despite cost reducing mea- sures. The Government could reduce capital and recurrent costs, and possibly also improve the quality of education offered, by making maximum use of faci- lities in industries, hospitals, etc., for students' workshop and laboratory work. - 52 - 5.19 Recurrent cost implications of the primary an 9secondary education programs for teacher training are comparatively minor. ' No expansion of preservice training for primary teachers is needed, but the large inservice programs need to continue. Recurrent expenditures for primary teacher train- ing could thus remain largely unchanged for the next few years. The recurrent cost of primary teacher education, amounting to Y 0.3 billion/year or Y 8001 student, have already been included in the secondary education costs given above. 5.20 It was assumed that preservice training of secondary teachers would double, from the output of 130,000 graduates in 1982 to 260,000 by the year 2000, reflecting the projected doubling of higher education enrollments. Unit recurrent costs in departments of teacher training at the colleges and universities, including studer-t boarding, are estimated at Y 1,500 in L982, so the program of preservice teacher training would then double the 1982 recurrent costs of approximately Y 0.6 billion, to Y 1.2 billion (in 1982 costs), by the year 2000. 5.21 Capital costs in teacher training would mainly be for the procure- ment of much needed equipment. Better use of teaching faciLities and enroll- ment of day students would reduce the need for construction of new buildings. Capital investment is estimated at Y 2,000inew student place, or a total of Y 0.8 billion. 5.22 To make complete estimates of education expenditure to the year 2000, the cost of higher education (other than teacher training) must be added to the above estimates. Total enrollment in university education is planned to double, from 1.2 million in 1982 to about 2.4 million by the end of the century to meet the demand for professional manpower generated by the national modernization program. There is scope for large savings through better staff utilization (the current student/teacher ratio of 4:1 is expected to improve to 7:1 or better by the year 2000); improving space and equipment utilization rates also offers opportunities for reducing unit costs. Public recurrent costs in university and college education, estimated at Y 3.1 billion (including teacher training) in 1982, would nonetheless probably at least double, to Y 6.9 billion, because of increases in salaries (for further details, see Appendix E). Equipment needs would be large, estimated at a minimum of Y 4,000/new student place, or a total of, say, Y 5.0 billion (also including teacher training). 5.23 Assuming that teachers' salaries grow in line with increases in GNP/capita, the total recurrent costs of these various types of public education could thus amount to Y 33-38 billion in the year 2000, compared with 361 The following estimates exclude costs for inservice training, which are difficult to estimate. - 53 - Y 14 billion in 1982.37' Increasing teachers' salaries relative to other wages would raise chis estimate; for example, a 50% increase in teachers' salaries would add Y 9-10 billion to recurrent expenditure in the year 2000. Total capitaL needs for equipment might be at least Y 21 billion during the period 1982-2000. Table 5.7: SUMMARY OF ESTIMATES OF TOTAL PUBLIC RECURRENT COSTS, 1982 AND 2000, AND CAPITAL EQUIPMENT NEEDS, 1982-2000, IN EDUCATION (Y billion in 1982 prices) Recurrent costs /a Capital needs /b 1982 2000 1982-2000 p.a. est. Primary education 4.9 7.6 1.3 0.07 Secondary education (including 5.5 23.0118.7 15.0 0.79 primary teacher training) Tertiary education (including 3.1 6.9 5.0 0.26 secondary teacher training) (of which teacher training) (0.6) (1.4) (0.8) (0.04) Total Costs 13.5 37.5/33.2 21.3 1.12 /a For details, see Appendix E. 7a Equipment only. In addition, building needs could amount to 10% of annual recurrent costs. Source: World Bank estimates. 5.24 The estimates discussed in previous paragraphs are tentative and indicate only the magnitude of future public recurrent education costs and capital equipment needs. Furthermore, no estimates could be included to cover capital needs for new building construction, because no surveys showing the school building situation nationwide were available (paras. 5.14 and 5.18), but these could amount to 10% of annual recurrent costs. China estimates that its GNP will triple before the end of the century. This anticipated economic growth, together with favorable demographic trends and the possibilities for improving internal efficiency, offers China the opportunity to both meet the financial needs of planned educational development and achieve quality improvements, without increasing its allocation to education as a share of GNP. Even if teachers' salaries were increased by 50% relative to other 37/ A continuation of postsecondary level technician training would further increase costs. - 54 - wages, public expenditure on education would remain at around the current share (3.1%) of GNP, which is still below the median share for other LDCs (para. 5.04). STRUCTURE 01 LDUCATION IN CHINA Preschool Priaa'y tiower uplull k Postsecondary Univesilty, College, Sp.clall;Pd Sdiooi Vocational Technical Primary T7eacher Tralnlng 1 2 1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~University, College Preschool Prirnar Lower Sec. Upper Sec. University, College Graduate School llovAr middNc) luppor middle) Vocational Q Technical llndunry, Ag. Forestry. Health. Economics, Art, Physical Culture, etc.) AGE 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2i 26 I ' ' I I --J I-# - A I I I II l .l l1- I ' ' ' GRAOE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 iource MinRl;ry ofi Eeluction - June, 1984 World Bank - 22431 - 56 - Appendix A2 ENROLLMENT RATIOS IN FORMAL EDUCATION IN CHINA CHINA (1950-83 AND TARGETS FOR 2000); OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (1950-1980) ENROLLMENT0 RAITK 100.0 60.0 50.0 p RAR 50.0 ,EDUCATION 4QO _^' -PRIMAPY s, "' w----^ l OTHERl CX's _, SECW Y 10.0 -PRIMARY__ _ __ __ _ _ _ __ _ __ _ __ _ __ _ 6.0~~~~~~~~~~00 '. SCNAY ,- EDlJCATKION _# P _ .0,,, EDUCATION 30.0,."-* -CHINA - 11 - -CHIN 2.0~~~~~~~~~0- . , _ _ ,8 ~~~~SECOINDARY_ 20.0 EDUCATION 10. ______ jI =_==_OHWIDC_ ______ ===___ _____ ____ HIGHER 8'. 0 EDUCATION 61 OTE LDC's- -CHI A -_s -- 2.0 _/tw EE Sl t950 -.000 IGHEr b95 t7 95 t8 95 t9 °5 20 I E 3a0 CHINA e 'I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~HN OA~~~~~~~~~~~YA level of edlucotion as a peicentage od the relevant age group 0 fagt or non-universi?v higDher education in 200 are not availble. SoUrc UNESCO Statistical Yeair Book Wordd Bcl Estimaotes World Bonk-27353 CHINA FORM 1.0. 1632 STUDENT FLOWCHART ED.SECTOR 12-lOb (showing intake, enrollment, repetition, dropout and griaduation) IBRO Primary Education, 1979-83 Year Now Envants Grade I Grade 2 Grade 3 aQiad 4 a5 d 6 O'a,dadas 197to180 -9 37.79 -19% 31.81 - 6% 28.22 - 5% 25.65 10 2290 1- i--f r l f ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-2lh4'f 199011981 - 36.15 -192 30.63 - 2 2X 6 X 1X 210 | l g \ \ \ \ > z g \ l~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-35%] to8)82 -1 8 34.05 -182 29.39 - 8% 28.31 - 6X 27.90 12% 23.61 0 20,76 i982j983 - 32.85 7- 54 12X 258 0.6 20.69 i9831984 7 31 22 4 327.513261 19 /19 19 _19 19 /19 M a/ Numbers in round brackets () refer to total enrollment. b/ Numbers in square brackets (I refer to dropout rate from primary to lower secondary. CHINA FORM NO. 1632 STUDENT FLOWCHART E 12-80) (showing intake, enrollment, repetition, dropout and graduation) EDSECTOR Secondary Education, 1979-83 _________ Lowe er Secondary General Upper Secondary/L Year New Entrants Grade I Glrade 2 Glrade 3 Grade 4 Girsde 5 Grade 6 Graduates i g7M, 8O -- 1.74 17.1 422 112 0.05 -132 0046 0147,265 (Gross enrollment (12192>S ratio 63Z) sBs8l8 - | 16.46 -14z 15.87 -222 13.05 0.295 0.1 0.075 6,16 i981982 14.21 -21 12.31 0.970 -6 .33 .1 4.86 1 \ \ gz 2,2119 r \ ~~~~~~~~~~~(7,1S) l 1982/983 | 14.51 -112 13.13 19%.2 1 1.592 6 0 5 0,369 3,106 13/t44 1 2.35 (Groas enrollment - 9 1 . 1.57 2.35 ratio 462) 38 (6,29) i9 119 19 /lo _ 19 /19 19 I .. a/ Numbers in round brackets ( refer to total enrollment. N 4 b/ Excluding stu4enta in vocationalized schools. W - 59 _ Appendix B Table 2 CHINA Number of Students, Schools and Teachers, 1979-83 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Primary Education Students 146.6 146.3 143.3 139.7 135.8 Primary schools (mln) 0.920 0.917 0.894 0.881 0.862 Primary teachers (mln) 5.382 5.499 5.58 5.50 5.42/a Primary classes (mln) 4.270 4.279 4.20 4.093 4.043 Primary school administrative staff (mln) 0.493 0.555 0.585 0.608 0.635 Student/school ratio 159 159 160 158.7 157.5 Student/teacher ratio 27.2 26.6 25.7 25.4 25.0 Student/class ratio 34.3 34.2 34.1 34.1 33.6 Secondary Education Students 59.1 55.1 48.6 45.3 44.0 Lower secondary teachers (mln) 2.400 2.449 2.35 2.215 2.146/b Upper secondary teachers (mln) 0.667 0.571 0.494 0.466 0.451/c General secondary schools (mln) 0.144 0.118 0.107 0.102 0.097 Student/teacher ratio 19.3 18.2 17.1 16.9 16.9 Student/school ratio 410 465 455 446 445 Primary Teacher Training Students 484,000 482,000 437,000 411,000 455,000/d Schools 1,053 1,017 962 908 861 Teachers 34,000 37,700 37,500 39,300 40,4no Graduates 102,000 209,000 240,000 204,000 145,000 Student/school ratio 460 474 454 453 528 Student/teacher ratio 14.0 12.8 11.7 10.5 11.3 /a 40-50% unqualified. /b 70% unqualified. /c 40% unqualified. /d 80% at senior secondary level. - 60- ndi B CHINA Technical and Skilled Worker Tratnm Schools: Numher of Students, Schools and Teachers 19/9-83 No. of No. of No. of Student/ Student/ No. of students graduates teachers school teacher schools (lIn) (mln) (Mlin) ratio ratto Industry 1979 627 0.243 0.024 1980 643 0.263 0.058 1981 658 0.203 0.138 1982 672 0.216 0o069 1983 670 0.234 0.065 Agriculture 1979 337 0.110 0.011 1980 337 0.114 0.029 1981 352 n.083 0.059 1982 349 0.077 0-035 1983 365 0.078 0o025 Fore strv 1979 35 0.011 0n002 1980 36 0.012 0.003 :981 38 0.011 0.A06 1982 38 0.013 0.004 1983 39 0.014 0.004 PoliticslLau 1980 - - - 1981 44 0.017 0.007 1982 64 0.022 0.008 1983 82 0.027 o.010 Nedical/lPealth 1979 543 0.210 0.025 19A0 555 0.225 0.054 1981 556 0.183 0.094 1982 526 0.163 0.070 1983 520 0.163 an.63 Economics/Bustness 1979 297 0.105 0.013 1980 319 0.107 0.047 1981 360 n.107 0.054 1982 363 0.110 0.050 1983 375 0.146 0.058 Phvsical Culture 19S9 23 0.005 o.on4 1980 26 0.006 0.001 1981 30 0.007 0.001 1982 29 0.007 0.001 1983 31 0.007 0.002 Arts TMq9 70 0.012 0.002 1980 83 n.016 0.002 1981 95 0.016 0.004 1982 93 0.015 o.on3 1983 97 0.017 0.003 Others 1TMJ 48 0.016 0.001 1980 53 0.018 n.007 1981 37 0.005 n.002 1982 34 0.005 n.002 1983 50 0.003 0.001 Total 1,980 0.714 n.079 0.083 360 8.6 1980 2,052 0.761 0.201 0.0n1 371 8.4 1981 2,170 0.632 0.365 0.098 291 6.4 1982 2,168 0.628/s 0.242 0.110/b 290 5.7 1983 2.229 0.68N n.230 0.116- 309 S.Q Skilled Worker Traldnint Schoos Y719 33,0o 0.640 0.097 0.055 210 11.6 1980 3,305 0.700 0.255 O.n61 212 11.4 1981 3,669 0.679 0.353 0.0o0 185 8.I 1982 3,367 0.512 0.323 0.074 152 6.9 1983 3,357 0.523 0.268 0.085 155 6.2 /a 80% at the postsecondary level 7E 30-35Z unqualified. - 61 - Appendix B Table 3.2 CHINA Vocationalized Secondary Schools A. 1983 Enrollment in Vocationalized Secondary Schools Extended lower Upper Total Total 301,000 919,000 1,220,000/a Of which in agriculture 275,000 407,000 682,000 B. 1983 Enrollment ('000) in Vocationalized Upper Secondary Schools, by Grade 2-year system 3-year system Grade 1 Grade 2 Total Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Total Total 246 138 384 344 132 59 535 Of which in agric. 108 48 156 177 56 18 251 C. 1983 Enrollment, Year I Admissions and Output, in Vocationalized Upper Secondary Schools, by Major Field Major field Enrollment Year I admissions Output Agriculture 366,100 254,500 52,400 Engineering 199,500 116,100 48,500 Repair services 73,900 48,200 15,600 Economics/finance 61,600 34,700 14,800 Forestry 49,700 34,400 5,300 Teacher training 31,100 19,400 4,300 Medicine 16,900 11,100 2,200 Art 14,900 8,900 3,100 Physical education 3,600 2,300 600 Politics/law 1,500 300 200 Others 100,100 59,800 22,600 Total 918.900 589,700 169,600 /a 1981: 481,000; 1982: 704,000. Source: Department of Vocational Education, Ministry of Education, March 1984. CHINA Student Fnrollment tn Various TYpes of Postsecondary Inhtitutions. 1979-82183 Institute of Institute of Agri- Total romprehenasve llniversity Science and Enginsering culture and Forestry 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1979 1980 1981 1982 197 1980 1981 1982 1979 1980 1981 1982 Beijing 72,991 83,032 98,103 94,864 90,894 12,061 12,541 15,403 15,093 33,279 171,19 44,039 42,202 2,528 2,367 3,065 2,805 Tianjin 28,197 29.906 36,645 34,622 34,nnn 4,571 4,724 5,784 5,384 14,475 15,341 19,053 IR,550 292 292 29! 62 Hebei 35,952 41,452 44,975 38,718 41,888 2,333 3,211 4,n84 3,579 11,251 12,344 14,805 12,196 4,293 4,731 5,437 4,928 Shanxi 25,308 33,104 36,975 31,733 32,R68 3,185 4,409 5,472 4,741 7,334 9,822 12,029 9,798 2,246 2,R27 3,449 2,325 Mel Mongol 15,674 17,405 20,576 19,518 21,472 1,289 1,600 2,113 2,00n 2,309 2,771 3,482 2,972 1,549 2,280 3,055 3,257 Liaoning 58,007 63,255 74,810 6n,979 67,21R 2,965 3,9%4 5,118 4,772 32,SR2 15,115 41,151 29,805 2,569 3,073 3,514 2,299 Jilin 35,670 38,006 46,454 43,560 44,340 5,977 6,081 7,448 5,861 10,661 11,965 14,864 12,627 2,446 3,158 4,nR2 3,550 feilongjiang 40,556 43,627 49,590 43,357 45,290 2,187 2,236 2,967 2,644 15,992 17,485 2n0980 15,6R4 4,276 4,444 S,109 4,151 Shanshai 67,404 73,370 87,258 R3,918 78,696 5,520 5,035 6,415 5,647 38,979 44,264 52,281 47,153 472 1,264 1,535 1,338 Jlangsu 73,943 82,122 82,560 71,966 78,962 4,85S5 S,398 5,990 8,326 26,981 32,414 38,84q 31,208 2,902 3,324 3,649 2,815 Zhejiang 32,227 37,592 41,020 36,869 39,008 3,784 4,794 5,890 4,870 8,929 10,413 13,191 10,788 3,28q 4,082 4,868 3,558 Anhui 33,290 37,627 45,491 40,501 42,sn1 3,533 4 587 1,464 3,454 10,095 12,n34 14,670 12,299 2,29S 2,860 3,449 2,904 aN Fujian 40,555 38,555 3n,370 27,108 29,310 4,151 4,513 5,376 4,420 7,118 8,049 7,627 7,043 4,528 4,045 3,526 2,851 Jiangxi 29,139 35,623 37,857 35,747 36,362 2,19S5 2,715 3,379 2,843 7,206 8,214 9,924 8,151 2;149 2,081 2,418 2,442 Shandong 44,771 51,427 59,645 52,443 55,276 3,376 4,518 5,809 4,9504 12,917 16,147 19,551 15,658 3,515 4,058 4,82A 3,368 Henan 33,804 44,9R5 47,813 46,228 48,117 2,603 3,411 4,220 3,829 5,853 7,912 9,968 8,252 3,733 5,323 5,533 5,438 Hubei 60,200 65,296 74,095 68,065 74,890 4,062 4,304 S,61R 4,961 24,304 27,149 34,506 29,172 3,513 3,901 3,808 3,002 HunnnTI 42,912 51,946 54,739 48,172 l1,519 2s500 3,319 3,367 3,771 14,129 15,770 19,316 14,648 4,356 5,685 5,512 3,480 Guangdong 42,382 44,053 47,570 44,511 48,818 5,411 6,332 8,OR6 7,562 9,132 8,90o 10,544 s,n46 6,255 5,975 5,611 4,761 fuangxi 21,213 25,521 24,320 21,117 21,786 2,687 2,939 3,723 2,975 1,137 1,980 2,485 2,516 2,162 2,550 2,993 1,939 Sichuan 69,055 74,742 86,067 73,955 79,403 5,216 5,633 5,147 4,466 24,598 24,845 31,925 26,899 5,118 6,389 6,711 5,163 Guizhou 18,244 17,062 18,104 16,730 16,934 1,767 1,735 2,034 1,732 2,235 2,015 2,31! 1,707 1,601 1,795 1,807 1,542 Yunnan 18,979 l8,136 21,729 19,279 20,856 2,874 2,962 3,722 3,225 4,108 4,065 5,126 4,235 q1S 1,282 1,627 1,380 Xisang 1,480 1,494 1,522 1,214 1,325 - - - - - - - - 591 412 354 256 Shaanxi 43,392 53,231 63,245 56,073 60,289 3,392 5,844 5,044 4,157 22,592 28,177 34,538 28,448 1,974 2,513 2,768 2,551 Ganmu 15,563 IR,107 20,887 17 252 18,138 2,721 3,716 4,709 4,264 i,725 4,169 4,948 3,471 1,225 1,439 1,560 1,015 Qir1hat 3,736 4,238 5,367 4,736 4,852 - - - - 479 637 728 565 84 164 259 293 Ningxis 3,630 4,156 5,16! 4,528 5,083 1,350 1,789 2,264 1,878 - - - - 841 891 1,159 1,005 Xinjiang 11,666 14,242 16,495 16,191 16,438 2,699 3,241 3,854 3,778 1,190 1,549 1,763 1,526 2,865 3,447 4,152 3,69n Total 1,019.950 13 .712 1 l.279.472 1,151,954 1 .2116823 99.26 11571 13J sno 125,200 353,540 4nOQ55 4R4.68 405,619 74.22 86.652 96.128 78.168 to Institute of Institute of Teacher Training Hedielne and Pharmacy Short-term colleges Others 1979 1980 1981 19R2 1979 1980 1981 1982 1979 1980 1981 1982 1979 1980 1981 Iqa2 Beijing 7,999 9,636 11,031 9,645 5,294 5,221 6,047 6,672 - - - 986 11,830 15,448 18,518 17,461 Tianjin 3,877 4,200 4,624 3,711 2,139 2,387 3,054 3,246 - - 310 2,893 2,962 3,839 3,339 Hebei 13,150 15,242 14,529 11,631 4,734 5,649 5,711 5,953 - - - - 191 275 398 413 Shanxi 7,898 9,920 9,473 8,376 3,268 4,317 4,391 4,907 - - - - 1,377 1,809 2,161 1,5R6 Net H4ongol 8,107 7,860 8,226 7,086 2,204 2,517 3,068 3,417 - - - - 216 377 632 786 Liaoning 10,429 10,339 11.690 10,762 5,R76 6,117 7,547 7,762 - - - - 3,586 4,617 5,830 5,579 Jilin 10,948 10,646 12,388 10,917 4,721 4,672 5,691 6,364 - - - 2,113 917 1,484 1,981 2,128 Hellongjiang 11,532 12,354 12,144 12,667 5,090 5,110 6,062 5,698 - - - 236 1,489 1,908 2,328 2,277 Shanghal 11,267 10,15l 11,814 9,905 5,798 5,531 6,795 7,695 - - - 3,445 5,368 7,125 8 ,414 R,735 Jiangau 26,628 28,259 18,977 12,707 11,86R 12,043 13,365 11,395 - - - 3,715 7n0 1,084 1,73n 1,800 Zhejiang 11,693 13,144 1O,854 10,826 3,768 3,979 4,714 4,569 - - - 781 764 1,180 1,503 1,477 Anhui 12,973 12,439 15,013 13,011 3,968 5,061 fi,027 5,763 - - - 2,12R 426 646 R6s 942 Fujian 20,759 17,523 0,738 9,193 3,092 3,320 2,719 2,670 - - - 386 903 1,105 384 545 Jiangxi 11,405 15,178 13,623 14,194 5,320 5,902 6,430 6,218 - - - - 864 1,533 2,083 1,899 Shandong 17,446 16,450 17,973 16,577 7,297 9,660 10,594 10,178 - - - 649 220 594 890 1,063 Henan 15,843 20,432 19,318 17,787 5,254 7,073 7,939 8,167 - - - 1,851 518 834 835 904 Hubei 15,400 16,R67 14,758 13,914 9,672 9,336 10,612 9,969 - - - 2,467 3,209 3,739 4,793 4,580 Hunan 14,721 19,340 17,528 16,779 5,328 6,541 7,417 7,554 - - - - 1,878 1,291 1,599 1,940 fuangdong 12,003 13,359 11,405 11,274 7,081 7,211 8,491 9,503 - - - 547 2,500 2,686 3,433 2,818 Cuangxi 10,021 11,880 8,1329 7,286 3,506 4,178 4,508 4,732 - - - - 1,70n 1,994 2,282 1,669 Sichuan 20,778 22,815 23,887 20,309 8,219 8,56n 9,952 9,467 - - - - 5,126 6,5no 8,445 7,651 Guizhou 8,367 7,218 6,704 6,005 3,750 3,565 4,208 4,724 - - - - 524 734 1,040 1,020 Yunnan 7,993 6,289 6,723 5,388 2,213 2,311 2,863 3,447 - - - - R76 1,227 1,669 1,604 Xizang 441 555 606 540 133 L33 49 - - - - - 315 394 513 418 Shaanxi 8,181 9,78R 11,935 10,804 2,206 2,940 3,922 4,531 - - - 711 5,047 3,969 5,038 4,871 Oansu 5,651 6,056 6,192 4,625 1,241 1,697 2,141 2,475 - - - 115 i,000 1,030 1,337 1,2R7 Qinghai 1,641 1,636 2,172 1,812 684 693 856 947 - - - - 848 1,108 1,352 1,119 Ningxia 697 724 780 720 742 752 958 925 - - - - - - - - Xinjiang 2,326 2,872 3,351 3,377 2,167 2,469 2,584 2,921 - - - - 419 664 791 899 Total 310,174 333,172 316,785 281,828 126,633 138,945 15R,715 161,869 - 20,460 55,711 68,317 R4,686 O,R10 _~~~ CHINA Number of Various Types of Postsecondarv Institutions, by Province - 1979, IRl and 1q82 Comprehensive Tnst. of Science Inst. of Agri. Inst. of Teacher Inst, of Medicine Total tniversities ring & Fores Training 6Pharmac Others 1979 1Sol 198Z 1Y83 1q79 1981~5T 1951 1979 9 i19Z 1979 1981 t882 1979198 198Z 1979 1991 1982 Beijing 48 51 51 55 2 2 2 14 15 15 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 21 23 23 Tianjin 14 17 19 21 1 1 1 4 4 5 - - 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 Hebei 27 27 29 33 1 1 1 10 10 in 3 3 3 8 8 in 4 4 4 1 1 1 Shanxi 16 16 17 17 1 1 1 5 4 4 1 1 1 5 6 7 3 3 3 1 1 1 Nei mongol 13 14 14 14 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 - I 1 L.iaoning 34 38 39 50 1 1 1 15 16 16 2 2 2 5 7 7 h 6 6 5 6 7 Jilin 25 28 27 32 2 2 2 A 8 8 4 4 3 5 7 7 4 4 4 2 3 3 Rellongjiang 27 31 31 36 1 1 1 10 10 10 3 3 3 6 9 9 5 5 5 2 3 3 Shanghai 27 34 34 38 1 1 1 15 16 16 n 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 6 9 9 Jiangsu 19 22 48 58 1 1 1 3 A 4 3 3 3 7 8 8 3 3 1 2 3 3 Zhejiang 19 22 22 24 1 1 1 3 4 4 3 3 3 7 8 8 3 3 3 2 3 3 Anhut 20 23 22 30 2 2 1 6 6 6 1 1 2 6 9 8 4 4 4 1 1 1 Fujian 16 18 18 21 1 1 1 4 4 4 3 3 3 5 7 7 2 2 2 1 1 1 Jianxi 17 17 19 19 1 1 1 6 6 6 1 1 1 5 5 7 3 3 3 1 1 1 Shandong 34 37 37 37 1 1 1 11 11 11 2 2 2 10 11 11 7 9 9 3 3 3 Henan 24 26 26 31 1 1 1 5 6 6 4 4 4 8 q Q 5 5 5 1 1 1 Hubei 33 37 37 46 1 1 1 13 I6 16 1 1 1 9 9 9 6 6 6 3 4 4 Runan 22 23 23 26 2 2 2 6 5 5 2 2 2 R 10 10 3 3 3 1 1 1 Guangdong 29 31 33 36 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 8 8 10 7 7 7 5 6 6 Guangxi 17 18 16 17 1 1 1 4 5 3 1 1 1 5 5 5 4 4 4 2 2 2 Sichuan 42 44 47 48 1 1 1 12 14 14 5 5 5 12 12 15 5 5 5 7 7 7 Guizhou 14 16 16 16 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 A 8 3 3 3 2 2 2 Yunnan 15 18 19 20 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 7 8 8 2 2 3 1 3 3 Xizang 4 4 3 3 - - - - - - 1 1 1 I I 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 Shaanxi 28 33 33 34 2 1 1 13 14 14 1 2 2 5 6 6 3 4 4 4 6 6 Cansu 12 13 13 14 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 5 5 5 2 2 2 1 1 1 Qinghai h 6 6 6 - - - 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 Ningxia 4 4 4 6 1 1 1 - - - 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 - - - Xinjiang 10 12 12 13 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 4 4 2 2 2 - 1 1 Total 633 704 715 8nl 33 32 32 191 207 206 61 65 66 161 186 194 107 112 112 80 102 105 15 - 65 - Appendix B Table 6 CHINA Number of Graduates of Higher Education, by Discipline, 1979-83 Classification 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Engineering 21,362 44,164 12,199 172,236 NA Agriculture 9,748 4,009 7,902 32,562 NA Forestry 1,281 1,249 933 5,488 NA Medicine and pharmacy 13,483 17,656 9,512 25,963 NA Teacher training 24,331 61,942 103,422 129,463/a NA Liberal arts 5,421 6,213 1,210 27,449 NA Science 5,682 8,421 1,989 40,747 NA Finance and economics 1,904 1,268 2,079 13,143 NA Politics and law - 109 - 1,238 NA Physical culture 1,498 1,010 73 5,647 NA Arts 375 594 321 3,308 NA Total 85,085 146,635 139,640 457,244 335,344 NA = Not available. /a Approximately 100,000 in academic subjects and 30,000 in vocational/tech- nical subjects. Source: Ministry of Education. - 66 - Appendix B Table 7 CHINA Figher Education Institutions and Students, by Classification, 1979-83 1979 1.980 1981 1982 1983 Number of higher education institutions 633 675 704 715 801 Number of students 1,020,000 1,144,000 1,279,000 1,154,000 1,206,000 Full-time teaching staff 237,000 247,000 250,000 287,000 303,000 Student/teacher ratio 4.0 4.6 5.1 4.0 4.2 Student/college-university ratio 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,600 1,500 Intake 270,000 276,000 331,000 391,000 Number of graduates 85,000 147,ooo 140,000 457,000 335,000 Number of postgraduate students 15,500 17,700 15,600 21,300 30,600 Source: Ministry of Education. - 67 - Appendix B Table 8 CHINA Students. Schools and.Teachers in Nonformal Education, 1979-83 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Kindergarten Number of children (mln) 8.79 11.508 10.562 11.131 11.403 Number of kindergartens (mln) 0.166 0.17 0.13 0.122 0.136 Number of children per kindergarten 53 68 81 91 84 Number of classes (mln) 0.314 0.396 0.36 0.366 Number of children per class 28 29 29 30 Number of teachers (mln) 0.533 0.411 0.401 0.415 0.465 Number of children per teacher 16 28 26 27 25 Primary Level (mln) Total number of students 21.2 16.461 9.736 7.566 8.172 Number in literacy courses 16.4 12.209 6.213 3.96 5.287 Secondary-Postsecondary (min) Total number of students 4.7 6.51 6.885 9.614 9.748 Number in lower secondary 1.5 2.69 2.988 5.582 Number in general upper secondary 0.6 0.85 0.778 0.768 Number in technical secondary 2.2 2.96 3.119 3.264/a Number in technical postsecondary 0.4 N/A N/A N/A Full-time students 0.6 N/A N/A N/A University Level Full-time students 200,000 253,000 278,000 357,000 926,000/b Spare-time students 660,000 527,000 481 ,000 342,000 Teachers in Nonformal Education Full-Time Primary education 0.120 0.065 0.231 0.131 N/A Secondary education 0.026 0.033 0.085 0.134 N/A Higher education 0.020 0.018 0.0236 0.0347 N/A Part-Time Primary education 1.000 0.75 N/A N/A N/A Secondary education 0.135 0.237 N/A N/A N/A Higher education 0.033 0.029 N/A N/A N/A N/A = Not available. /a Figure includes an estimated 2.7 million students at the postsecondary level. /b Total enrollment. - 68 - Appendix B Table 9.1 CHINA Recurrent Educational rxpenditure by the Minlstry of Education. 1978-82 /a tY 100 million) Total Sala- Sub- Staff Student ntilities Consumable Equip- Maint. of expenditures ries sidies benefits subsidies & others instr. natl. ment buildings Amount % Higher Fducation 1978 3.39 0.14 n.14 0.94 1.39 1.21 2.67 1.05 11.40 19 1979 3.90 0.30 0.25 1.44 1.84 1.8n 4.18 1.66 15.80 23 1980 4.58 0.70 0.35 1.95 2.38 1.79 4.05 1.96 17.76 21 1981 4.77 0.90 0.44 2.25 2.66 2.19 4.80 2.49 20.50 22 1982 5.11 1.n8 0.41 2.27 2.27 2.51 5.n0 2.53 20.10 21 Normal Schools 1978 0.42 0.04 0.02 0.54 0.23 0.09 0.25 0.35 2.no 3 1979 0.43 0.06 0.03 0.78 0.26 0.09 0.27 0.44 2.40 3 1980 0.51 0.13 o.n5 1.02 0.33 0.09 0.28 0.55 2.96 4 1981 0.53 0.15 0.06 1.04 0.36 0.10 0.27 0.52 3.03 3 1982 0.64 0.17 0.05 0.58 0.33 0.12 0.25 0.65 3.30 3 Secondary Schools 1978 11.2R 1.05 0.46 0.86 2.30 0.53 1.72 3.38 21.70 36 1979 12.10 1.71 0.76 0.88 2.44 0.51 1.68 3.51 23.90 34 1980 13.56 3.76 1.31 0.91 3.04 0.53 1.88 4.22 29.21 34 1981 13.98 4.10 1.67 0.89 3.11 0.54 2.13 4.48 30.90 33 1982 16.68 4.33 1.25 0.87 2.70 0.56 2.16 5.14 34.90 33 Primary Schools 1978 11.23 1.36 0.58 0.06 1.16 0.17 0.61 2.37 17.70 29 1979 11.72 2.05 0.98 0.06 1.23 0.18 0.56 2.37 19.50 28 1980 13.19 4.74 1.84 0.07 1.87 0.20 0.67 2.89 25.47 3n 1981 14.02 5.43 2.54 0.07 2.05 0.25 0.A3 3.51 28.70 31 1982 17.59 5.86 1.55 0.09 1.72 0.24 0.85 4.16 33.90 33 Subsidies to Commune-run Schools 1978 8.10 13 1979 8.40 12 1980 9.48 11 1981 9.26 In 1982 In.20 1n Total ion 1978 26.32 2.59 1.20 2.40 5.08 2.00 5.25 7.15 60.90 1979 28.15 4.12 2.02 3.16 5.77 2.58 6.69 7.98 70.nO 1980 31.84 9.33 3.55 3.95 7.62 2.61 6.88 9.62 84.88 1981 33.30 10.58 4.71 4.25 8.18 3.08 8.03 11.00 92.39 1982 40.02 11.44 3.26 4.21 7.02 3.43 8.27 12.58 102.40 /a These budgets do not include some Items previously listed in HOE's recurrent budget. - 69 - Appendix A Table 9.2 CHINA State Budget kxpenditure, by Activity. 1950-82 (Y billion) 1950 1957 1965 1977 1981 1982 Total expenditure in budget 6.808 30.421 46.633 84.354 111.497 115.331 Of which: Capital construction 1.250 12.371 15.849 30.088 33.063 30.915 Modernization invest- ment - - - 1.710 4.156 4.270 Working capital - 2.082 2.755 6.568 2.284 2.363 Product development - 0.229 2.523 2.235 2.374 2.632 Geological survey - 0.627 0.771 1.726 2.185 2.305 Industry, transport and commerce - 1.236 1.591 1.443 2.368 2.383 Agricultural support - 0.799 1.729 5.068 7.368 7.988 Education, culture and health 0.502 2.776 4.559 9.020 17.136 19.696 Of which: Health (-) (-) (-) (2.082) (3.881) (-) Education (-) (-) (-) (5.300) (9.240) (10.240) Defense 2.801 5.511 8.676 14.°04 16.797 17.635 Administration - 2.168 2.534 4.332 7.088 8.160 Memorandum item: Subsidy payments - - - - 37.300 38.200 Of which: Daily necessities - - - 7.000/a 29.400 30.000 Agricultural inputs - - - - 2.100 2.200 Operating losses of state- owned enterprises - - - - 4.200 3.600 Total budgetary expenditure plus subsidies - - - - 148.797 151.531 /a Estimated from the figure of Y 7.8 billion for 1978. Source: Ministry of Finance. _ 70 - Appendix B Table 10 CHINA Fnrollment in Formal Education, 1949-83 (Million students) Year Primary Secondary Tertiary Total 1949 24.39 1.27 0.117 25.78 1950 28.92 1.57 0.137 30.63 1951 43.15 1.96 0.153 45.26 1952 51.10 3.15 0.191 54.44 1953 51.66 3.63 0.212 55.50 1954 51.22 4.25 0.253 55.72 1955 53.13 4.47 0.288 57.89 1956 63.47 6.01 0.403 69.88 1957 64.28 7.08 0.441 71.80 1958 86.40 12.00 0.660 99.06 1959 91.18 12.90 0.812 104.89 1960 93.79 14.87 0.962 109.62 1961 75.79 10.34 0.947 87.08 1962 69.24 8.34 0.830 78.41 1963 71.58 8.38 0.750 80.71 1964 92.95 10.20 0.685 103.84 1965 116.21 14.32 0.674 131.20 1966 103.42 12.97 0.534 116.92 1967 102.44 12.55 0.409 115.40 1968 100.36 14.05 0.259 114.67 1969 100.67 20.25 0.109 121.03 1970 105.28 26.48 0.048 131.81 1971 112.11 31.49 0.083 143.68 1972 125.49 36.17 0.194 161.85 1973 135.70 34.95 0.314 170.96 1974 144.81 37.14 0.430 182.38 1975 150.94 45.37 0.501 196.81 1976 150.06 59.06 0.565 209.69 1977 146.18 68.49 0.625 215.30 1978 146.24 66.37 0.856 213.47 1979 146.63 60.32/a 1.591/b 208.54 1980 146.27 56.78 1.144 204.19 1981 143.33 49.84/a 1.785/b 194.96 1982 139.72 46.337a 1.6567w 187.71 1983 135.78 46.28 1.756 183.82 /a These figures include enrollment in general secondary education, primary teacher training, skilled worker training schools and secondary-level courses in technical schools. /b These figures include enrollment in universities, colleges and tertiary- level courses in technical schools. Source: Ministry of Education. - 71 - Appendix B Table 11 CHINA Projected Enrollment in Formal Primary and Secondary Education, 1983-2000 (Million students) Year Primary Secondary 1983 136 46 1984 130 50 1985 124 53 1986 117 57 1987 110 62 1988 101 67 1989 100 67 1990 99 65 1991 96 62 1992 93 59 1993 91 61 1994 90 63 1995 88 65 1996 91 67 1997 94 66 1998 94 67 1999 95 70 2000 94 71 Source: Mission estimates (6/6/84). - 72 - Appendix C CHINA Timetable of PreserviLe Primary Teacher Training Schools Class hours Total number Subject Grade I Grade 2 Grade 3 of class hours % Politics 2 2 1 171 5 Chinese writing and composition 5 5 4 614 20 Basic Chinese 2 2 - Basic methodology of Chinese - - 2 62 2 Mathematics 6 6 - 420 13 Methodology of mathematics - - 4 124 4 Physics 3 3 3 303 10 Chemistry 3 3 - 210 7 Biology 4 - - 144 5 Physiological hygiene - 2 - 68 2 History - - 3 93 3 Geography - - 3 93 3 Psychology - 2 - 68 2 Pedagogy - - 4 124 4 Sports and teachiAg methodology 2 2 3 233 8 Music and teaching methodology 2 2 2 202 6 Art and teaching methodology 2 2 2 202 6 Total class periods/week 31 31 31 3,131 100 Total class weeks/year 36 34 31 Practice (weeks) - 2 6 Manual work (weeks) 2 2 - -73 - Appendix D CurWAmarW FImICATTIW TINTCA313E5 rage 1 Kwy 2. 1985 ON EDOcATIoN REWRSNTW ADUT LATR FOR SIlKY COST PWCESSIIS cmur PRAS yourC EXPENCITURES LXmnaaF PRPAisY yztauv tazan2 nRIsn ntan Pam, SzcNDMaWr uzacmr uxCaz TEAR HILLS .(VSS) rotsrE n aVzmsuT Pra sac Ni CR) RATIO eraZ "it AS PsohNt SECOCCl RtATIO Fix RATIO (1979) (1979) EUOCATIW CIxSITU CR) C1976) (RI (2) TEACHER CMPlCAPITA (I) CZ) TRADESn CZ) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (I11) 02Z) (iS) (14) AUSTRLIA ONMSo 14.6b 8,870 6.3- 16.6 - - - - 103w 100 21 - 99 73 13 20.90 CAuNAD 83 23.16 9.6506 7.7* is 5.7 308? 3487 23.7 glib 1063 100 21 19.9s? 100 9219 us 22.60 CaSAsy V.2. 79 61.2 12.200 6.6 9.08 - - - ow B iao0 - - 3oo 968 - :z.zO. kinZmmjmDs 79 16.0 3049 7.9 5.3 20 35 25 996? 96 95 38 3 5.3 99 82 33 32.60 KWZU LAD staje3.6b 6,09th 5.5" 13.6 37 31 28 99b 100 100 24 11.6 100 82 1s 235.0M* stem10 79 9.3 12.250 9.0 18.2 31 10 10 ,9b 0" 100 La. 30.9 300 ?9K SONY 6.i067 angStM 5z 1*nb 750b - - 69 25 jj 6b as 89 32 23.3 26 - 23 - NIUJUDI 83 6.2 235 2.ab- 19.0 63 28 27 25 29Z 35 37 20.2 12 3' 17 3.00 ~cins 84 0.66 365 3.8' 28.0 49 29 22 49 76 a0 39 - 45 34 Zs 0.60 0.3130m 8£ 0.6 480 3.0 13 .9 73 26 ... 10 42 66 40 67.0 '.0 10 19 0.60 nZ7ouza 81 32.86 :406 2.98 13.1 65 25 20 53 42 30- 63 19.3 938 34 4. 0.65 REIg 82 17.16 4206 5.7" 21.26 65 16 - 486 113 58 36 136A 35 38 is - LESOTHO 82 1.66 4356 5.5 16.9 38 32 26 536 3163 L3 68 9.6 £6 21 23 1.30 niDAGSaCAJ 77 S.) fl0 6.0w 26.0 53 29 19 50 96bz 33 556 as0 38 1£. 23 3.1ob67 'W.AVz 81 6.3b nob 3.5 11.6 38 14 25 256 62 23 65 5.9 12 4 ?3I o.ao uwasTinu 83 jO 3,bI1706 6.3 4.0 46 36 7 go 93 72 23 33.0 100 50 22 3.00 mWANmA 83 g.56 2606 2.7 24.5 72 16 1 2 376 66 62 40 33.0 10a 7 16 0.60 SR?OIR.LZS 79 0.6 3,770 5.9 Z2.40 348 338 30A Zs - 2 -- - SOgALLIA 81 6.5 280 1.5 30.3 506 446 66 S06 226 10b 2,6 qo6b Bob i2b 22 1.00 SUDANO so 19.26 3"6 3.0 - 66 39 --- 32 SIC 68 34 3.4 41 t 16 36 SII8ZILAM 83 0.76 9406 3.8pb 20.6 51 34 1 5 636 93 so 33 11.0 on 29 38 3.00 TAIIZAIA 80 18.5 260 5.9 37.7 67 t0 16 796 9ob 87 43 31.0 396 3 20. 0.30 UGANDA 8o0 1266 30 - 36.1" 25 376206b 4a S"1 53 36 - 17 S 23 0.60 Zara S3 29.861 2106 7.7 26A4 - - IO 546 76 23 30 21.0 460 19 28 2.00 2*01*A 80 5 76 56616 4.SP 11.1 48 23 22 446 95 8o 48 32.9 3 9 16 IT 3.50o ZIIEEShd *1 7.7b 7006 5.1 19.3 62 32 6 ~4b 90 55 39 20.0 9 5 35 23 0.50 UETER AFRICA 83911 79 3.4b 3206 6.5" 35.0 43 21 5 jib 42 30 46 14.0 30 1t £3 3.007 nxxaJ 93 6.5 2106 2.3' 21.7 63 29 28 9 16 25 57 26.3 16 3 24 0.03 CANSOIl 78 8.2 590 2.97 16.07 33A 436 TOM - 767 458 507 i1.k4 20* JAY 26 3.307 C.A.V. 79 2.2 280 3.A87 20.687 - - - - 68 - - - - 0.70.7 mOU 76 4.4 120 7*46Wy ZI.7b --- 3 257 - 77 - - 37T 21 0.207 Cmum 78 1.5 670 9.G.87 27.7-7 - 3867y 30 - 4jh7 6.00*7 CA" 77 0.6 3.420 3.767 8.47 - "b - - - - 66 -- 36 2.80.7 aSAPM 77 0.6 220 3.30V 6.56b 46 25m 6a job 6067 904 2767 44.78 60 12687 17 - ClARL 76 31.3 400 4.GY 15.56 - - - - 71687 - 27b7 - - 36687 2: - CannA 79 5.3 2909 4.68P - 258 fl8 28- 20 36 36 38 20.0QP 65 16 29 7.00. 2905 CDAST 81 91.26 3.0706 10.0 45.0 33 46 13 30b 60 88 43 26.0 a7 358x7 26 1.90.7 LIELIU 80 1.9 320 6.6 39.6 43 23 24 30 52 32 35 20.0 76 22 20 2.9O PALI 81 7.06 190 4J8a 21.7* 38 21 11 10 20 60 64 1327 64 1 13 0.90M7 PAIWErrAR2A is 1.66 3206b 5.5 36.9 33 43 25 j76 32 60 44 52.0 30 9 215 0.37 NICER 78 5.2 300 4.3&7 16.6837 528 438 5- a j7 56. 638 3q.18 40 2 .246 0).207 MICIRXA 77 82.6 910 4.17y 9.4 - -- - - - - - .- 3087 25 0.3177 SCECAL 77 5.5 450 5.5 23.0 46.34 20 10 34617 - £367 - 20 la 21 2.20o7 SIERRA. LEOSIE 77 3.4 2350 4.06 16.06 - - - 156 37x - 35 25.06 St 1s- 22 0.6067 lOG0 78 2.6 400 4.53" 26.5w 30. 288 210 119 76 40 5467 3850 52 32637 4fl6 1.60b7 LATIN AMERCCLAN- THE CARIBBEAN amnurla 78 27.3 2.210 2.7 10.9 £38 316 18- 936 89 5 7 -873 30 DAANMAS 79 0.2 2.770 5.7 19.3 36 36 1L 936 99 97 24 - 97 75 39 - BAzxAOS 79 0.2 2.080 5.5887 22.18 438 31* 364 g6b 1007 998 277 j99*4 998 787 207 UU.IVIA 80 5.4 350 4.167 30.5w -- -6 63 767 - 207 - -- 357 - 32.60 33420 79 336.5 3.770 3.8 6.2 51 - 16. 76 7387 - 2387 'L..s 438 3587 1467 32.62b GmUIL 76 30.9 1.890 3.2b7 13.06 - - - - I3j9b87 - 3467 - - 55621 2067 13.9067 C,OnsIOA 80 26.76 1.1806 3.3 25.0 35 2fl 20 836 78 36 32 6.6 - 47 20 30.0281 COSTA RICL so 2.26 1.8106 8.A 31.1 40 27 33 90 93 77 33 5.3 77 6.0 27 34.00 cm 78 9.8 - 8.0 13.0 - -- - 96 312687 98 j3by - 98 73637 is 19.ozbY D@Ia81cA1 RP. 80 5.3 1.0330 2.9 13.0 39 23 22 bob so 33 5t 3.2 96 30 33 36.00 nMAnO ao *:4b 3.110 6.091 36.7 45 3! 16 83 105 - 56 32.4 86 £7 16 29.00 E'L SALVADOR 77 4.6 640 3.66b7 23.1b7 64 8 27 6?1 53617 32 39 - 43 266217 2761 ?."by QIATEMEALA 78 6.8 1.010 1.787 12.66 - - - - 6037y - 3567 - 69 33637 1967 5.50?1 CUIANA 76 0.8 630 R.jb7 13*gbv - - - - qqbiy - 5267 - -- 596*7 - 3.fl0b7 HAITI so 5.06 230 1.4" 7.ge7 65 9 6 23 50 20 4 1. 62. 6 7.8 rAUi.AR 78 3.6 320 3.567 1.4.3b7 62A 158 19- 80 sg6uy 304 43h7b 12.Rl 688 212 19 8.007 JAsUxCA s0 2.1 3,110 6.5 13.7 37 '.3 20 90 98 98 60 2.3 95 81 22 8.00 sEW1 so 65. 1.8 L.7 17.08 46 39 LS5 92 98 53 64 9.5 86 56 37 30. 30 jIaCAA 78 2.66 610o 30b 14.06 - - - gob 36 4 7 - - 266. 306b PAAMA 78 1.8b 3,530b 5.56Vr7 21.867 424 338 13 826 9567 - 2567 31.4 538 5067 2767 209.40b7 flRSUMAT 79 3.0 3,140 1.'" 14.2 42 17 20 56 83 32 28 3.17 76 22 32 0.70 PmW 80 36.6 1.000 3.6 14.3 53 15 19 80 83 56 39 941. 89 39 22 14.607 TRIINIAD rob0. 77 3.1 5,910 4.867 8.8b7 '.8 32 20 95 96 91 30 30.5? 49 42 it - UWGUAI 78 2.9 2.100 2.5 9.4b - - - 9' ~ 1j36z - 246 - *453 - 3793087 VUSC.MA 78 16.4 i.,460 5.37 13.96 - - - 82 1a6621 - 28 - - 386w 37 23.307 - 74 - Appendix D COAATnn SUCATTON T I CTCnTOSs Page 2 Ma 2, 1955 fl-ifm rDUCi2E0SIaiI - - -o ON EDUCATION RhUT AULT RAT POEt UNT sTPRcS Cw PER As Fr1N1 eUPIfIIs UTxeS PRIMARY PRILAr PIMARY RARY DAT PED SEW,UAR UEUISA5R mDICIE RSEC PM. CAPIt 1101? GNP TOM CIrAI ALLOCATCD TO: RATE REMIt. EQUaL SITS EDCATION CRDMS To (EMIL. STURI INSt. TZAR KILLS. CU) Dahrm TO co nluer PSI SEC NI CZ) 5*21o CYCLE PEER AS IPZNr SECOrI Y jRATIO PER RATIO (1979) (1979) iAlau XPENITURE (s) (1974) (CZ (2) TRACER CE PICAPM Cl) C(1 TEACNU CZ (1) (2) (3) (43 (3) (13 C7) Ca) C') (CO) c1i) (12) CR33 (1) EAST ASA AND T11 PACIFIC cum 13 1.025.Ob 310 3.3 7.1 3S 40 22 776 77 62 25 5.0 65 35 17 440 1DOISA SI 150.5b 520 2.3 9.3 70 24 6 32b 95 61 37 31.0 74 27 26 3.70 6ONU 92 393b 1636b 7.7v 20.5 34 34 31 96 99 93 * 3 19.0 96 54 3J 21490 MALAYSZA t 15.2b 1.170b 5.4 22.7 39w 44 17 - 7b 97 97 26 13.36 90 72 22 4.00 PAM ". 53 3.06 820 5.4 19.0 40 17 22 - 60 73- 313 15.0 35 133 278 I.00 nnIappzzs 79 4i,3b 690b 2.5" 14.0 64 36 - 75b 54 65 31 7.1 59 53 36 21.00 SIWAI 0 so 2.4 4.420 2.7 6.7 39 40 16 S3 92 S2 31 *J 96 55 22 8.00 SOaLM 1SL. 53 0.2b 640b 6.60 19.4 41 34 20 15 78 8o 27 10.3 40 22 1s 2.50 TrILeD so 47.3b 7Z3b 3.4 20.9 59 15 13 Ab 96 - 17 9.3 59 29 22 4.00 SOUTH ASIA AGOCLADESI 79 92,3b 90 1.IP lO.l-y 51 17 20 22b 637 - 53 5.6 - 14 23 L.43 sETAl sO 1.2 an 3.5 11.0 - - - to - - - 18D01 77 659.6 230 2.97 9.9 - - - 36 79x - 41 - - 29X - 8.30or NEPAL 82 15.0b 150b 1.4 - - - 19 70 - 35 - - 23 23 3.706 rAISTAN 52 57.1b 3lab 2.0 7.0 38 20 24 22 so 41 30 3.9 56 21 1s 3.00 EUMFn- MIDLE RAST AID WORTH APRrCA AICSANISTAN 77 15.5 - 3.7 3.7 47 19 15 12 jlby 49 37b - 62 5 2267 1.007 ALCERIA 79 16-3 1,770 3.06 12.3 346 26 21l 35 537 436 37 7.07 5Y 297 26 3.707 Earn 52 43.36 650 4.6" 7.9 33- 356 26- 44 75x 5 346 *r . * 36 - 43 396 17.00 a_M 76 93 4.140 2.6v 10.6b 37 26 21 - 97r7 - 29b 6.2? - 79bx 27b6 1740b7 IRS 79 36.9 - 5.77 14.1-7 - - - 5o 1015X - 32Z - - 44-5 246 4.9007 iRMA 79 12.6 2.710 4.3a7 4.967 - - - - 1007 - 28 - - 4567 29 9,3027 lcMAS 51 3.4b *.su 6.367 35.847 - - - 9a 93 94 29 - 98 83 14 31.00 Jona 81 2.2b 1,4206b 4.9" 302 19 44 15 70b lOP 85 32 7.2 91 83x 25 1e.oo LEMMaS 79 2.3 - - 14,.657 - - - - 96x - 19 - - 462 - 27.60ar NOMC ED 19.5 740 6*3w J7*56 36 44 20 25 567 33 39 197 40 253 21 4.50 om" 2 O.9b 5.920b 24 l2.78 - - - 30b? 71' 65 25 - sb it 34 ... romitcAL 79 97Jb 2 060 3.6 22.2 50 28 11 75 97 20 19t 12.J 5" 45X 376 3AJO NMEIA 78 22.1 2*100 3.9br 6.27 - - - S 1066b - 23b -- 95 54b6 22b 130.606 SPAIN 76 37.0 4.9*2 2.17 I.87 - - - - _ sb - 29 -- - 57b7 - 14.107b SYRaA 78 5.6 1.170 4.4P 10.3 39 25 26 35 57br so 35b - 6 43b 2lb 12.60 TUNIsxI 79 1.4 1.130 7.OP 19.0 42 39 15 62b 1006 50 3,9b 12 30 306 30 6.00 TUmm 83 47.5 1.230 3.3 16.2 50 22 24 736 310 77 31 G.D 55 26 13 8.00 YES A-IL so 6.J 420 5.0OP 32.0 94 7 7 21b 37 326 3s7 67.0 a5 3 20 3.10 YErS P.D I. 82 2.0b 420b 7.5 9.7 630 146 d6 33 61 34 25 22.06 46 17 20 2.50 SUMAN? FOR DEVEL0PTC CUEmICES: M her of Coencriee: 84 93 70 69 67 1 92 6 9s 65 75 91 8 as Rnge: (3.4- (3.7- (23- (8- (5- ta- (12- (32- (37- (14. (30- (1- tS- (0.05- 30.0) 54.3) 94) 46) 33) 99) 1l1) 99) 77) 67.0) 100) 54) 483 29.0) Quartiles: Upper: 5.6 21.7 31 16 22 il 9s 80 43 20 37 47 26 11.0 Ibdi6n: 4.0 26.1 63 28 19 53 53 G1 35 13 65 ZA 22 3.7 Lower: 3.0 11.0 38 21 13 25 bO 33 25 9 40 1L 39 1.0 Quarile Deviation 1.3 S.4 6.5 7.5 4.3 25.0 19.0 22.5 7.0 5.6 23.5 16.5 3.s 3.0 Mean: 4.4 17.0 46 28 IN 53 76 59 36 16 62 31 23 6.9 Stadard De-iatom: 1.9 8.7 32 10 7 29 27 24 13 13 27 23 7 7.4 Median: 4.0 16.0 43 2 19 53 83 61 35 13 65 26 22 3.7 SYNIOLS: FOOTNOTES: - DATUM UEAVAfLE. A - DATUM PRIOR O ELE YEARS S - MINISTRY OF EDUC4TIOdN CP!) ONLY ..MAITUDE NIL OR NEGLIGIMLE -DA- UAM MO1 RECENT TM EASE TEAS 7 - HOE S SrATE cwrma XIT OnLY 7 DATUM QUESTIONLALE N - CUW t PRICES W - PUBLIC EXPEiTUtR ONLY 6 DICLUDES PAJT-TIM STUDWICIS P - GDP - TCEIDES OVER-A STUDENTS I - UNESCO SOUEcES SOURCES: Cbal. I and 2: World Sank Atrla or IWO sisalon. Colum 3 to 14: IND iaions* GOverasent ecurces and/r Unesco Statistical Yearbook. Comparative Education Data are uswful Is the evaluation of various sducatlon system and anlysis of reletive 6:5cam of edustlenal developmnt betwen variate countries. Ecuevr. on the- basi of the preeec datae crors-natlonal conrt on shoud be approached with great catlon. Data prssnted In the above table hat' bees collected largel, by nast mdiaona from governet s*ources; ct- remalnder are stff etila1ts or data free Uaesco. 1forte have boom eade to t sndardise defnItItns And. Within Imit c. ch ehck thT Accuracy of the data. Nevrtheless, such data are stlIl imprfeccti several reepects and the 80nk is working to iqprov fhm prorseslvely an the occason of Its operational work. In the use of tese data, the following jualificocsioo b huld he kept In mSid: (l) 'Edu^ction- _ defined in the table includes al education and training, both for_l and noe-foral. (2) Primary education resere to edecation at th. flrst level and secndary- education refers to sll education a:cte secondary level regardles of type (e.g.. general. tecbniesl, erlrcultursl). (3) Literacy rates- Ceel. 6) are often obtaiand from country censses. In ny countrles they are only approniealoss and It to doubtful that soy unIform deflnition of -litera-e has ben nJlloyd conlatetly. (4) -Publc expeadltere iS education' (cole. 4 and 5) refers to all capital and recurrent esapndlturem devoted Lo educaton by public and qusal-ublic (5) 'Enrollment ratios (Cele. 7, 12 and 14) refer to school year and are th percentage of ellgible childre enrolled full-tls In the approprlate scheol public nd privsce by levl. Tbhy are oftes subject to a vide margin of error Is the developIng countrias owIng to variations In the accuracy of bhaic data (I.e.. age-specSfic populatin nd enrollmece). nrollmet fSgurs ftqamntly are higher then the nmber of students ectually In cbhol. Over-aged studntc whos inluson iS indicaed by footetwes elm can infleat the ratios. 75 -Appendix E CHrNA Public Recurrent Costs: P.stiuates of Increases at the Primarv. Secondary and HiRher Levels by the Tear 2000 (1982 prices) 1982 2000-T 2000-II 2000 -Ill PRIMARY LEVEL Total Number of Staff (min) 6.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 Teachers 5.5 3.8 3.8 3.8 Ancillary/admin. staff 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 Expenditure on Salaries (Y bin) 2.9 2.1 5.6 8.1 Teachers 2.7 1.9 5.1 7.6 Ancillary/admin. staff 0.2 0.2 0.5 n.5 Expenditure on Materials (Y bin) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 subtotal CY bin) 4.9 4.1 7.6 10.1 Scen I Scen 2 Sen1 Scen 2 Scen 1 Scen 2 SECONDARY LEVEL Total Number of Staff (mln) 3.3 6.0 4.4 6.0 4.4 6.0 4.4 Teachers 2.9 4-.4 3.7 4.4 3.7 4.4 3.7 Ancillary/admin. staff 0.4 1.6 0.7 1.4 0.7 1.6 0.7 E'xpenditure on Salaries CY bin) 3.1 5.9 4.5 15.7 12.0 22.1 17.4 Teachers 2.8 4-.8 4Z.0 12-.8 10-.7- 19.2 16.1 Ancillary/admin. staff 0.3 1.1 n.5 2.9 1.3 2.9 1.3 Fxpenditure on 1Materials CT bin) 2.4 7.3 6.7 7.3 6.7 7.3 6.7 Subtotal (Y bin) 5.5 13.2 11.2 23.0 18.7 29.4 24.1 HIG1FlR LEVEL /a Number of teachers (mln) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Expenditure on Salaries CT bin) 1.0 1.0 2.7 3.9 Teachers 0.q 0.9 2.4 3.6 Ancillary/adami. staff 0.1 0.1 n.3 0.3 Ex-penditure on Materials CY bin) 2.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 Subtotal CT bin) 3.1 5.2 6.9 R.1 TOTAL P.ECURRENT COSTS CT bin) 13.5 22.5/20.5 37.5133.2 47.6/42.3 Assumptions 2000-i Estimate assumes no increase in salaries. The cost of materials at the primary level is assumed to remain at Y 2.0 billion despite declines In enrollmuent, to allow for quality improvement. The cost of materials at the secondary level increases as a proportion of rotal recurrent costs because of the hlgher equipment and material costs Involved In the vocationalization program. The slightly lower cost In Scenario 2 assusmes more efficient use of some equipment and materials because the number of classes drops as student/teacher ratios are improved. Expenditure on materials at the higher level Is assumed to double in line with enrollment increases. 2000-II Estizate assumes that GNP rises from about T 450 billion to V 1,500 billion by the year 2000, and GNP per capita rises from $300 to S800. Salaries are assumed to increase in line with GNP/capita growth (i.e. 2.67 times). 2000-III Estimate assumes that, is addition to the assumption in estimate 2000~-lI, the salaries of teachers will be raised by 501 relative to other wages. /a The number of teachers Is assumed to bhe the same in the year 2000 as In 1982 because of expected iuprovements In student/teacher ratios. The number of ancillary/administrative staff is unknown; salary expenditure is estimated at 901 for teaching staff and 101 for nonteAching staff.