Report No. 3039LSO FILE COPY Lesotho: Agricultural Sector Review (In Two Volumes) Volume 1: Main Report January 27, 1981 Eastern Africa Region Southern Agriculture Division FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the ~wtd Bank Thts document has a restncted distnbution and may be used by rectpients only in the performance of their official duties Its contents may not otherwise be disdosed without World Bank authorization CURRENCY EQUIVALENT Currency Unit = Rand, although in 1979 the government issued a national currency, the Maloti, at par with the Rand and circulating jointly with it. US $1.00 R 0.7791 (June, 1980) US $1.2835 R 1.00 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 kilogram (kg) = 2.2 lb 1 metric ton (t) 2,204.6 lb 1 litre (1) = 2.116 US pints 1 hectare (ha) 2.471 acres ABBREVIATIONS BASP - Basic Agricultural Services Program CCPP - Cooperative Crops Production Program IDA - International Development Association IFAD - International Fund for Agricultural Development LAC - Lesotho Agricultural College LADB - Lesotho Agricultural Development Bank LDTC - Lesotho Distance Training Center LMC - Livestock Marketing Corporation MOA - Ministry of Agriculture PMC - Produce Marketing Corporation RSA - Republic of South Africa TSRP - Training for Self Reliance Project This report is based on the findings of a mission which visited Lesotho in October/November 1979 comprising Messrs. P. Duane and S. J. Carr and Mrs. G. L. Scott (of the Bank) and Messrs. A. Blair Rains, W. David, and R.G.B. Jones (Consultants). Early drafts of their report were provided to Government in March 1980. Subsequently, a full draft report was forwarded to Lesotho in July and discussed with Government in September. An advance copy of the present report was circulated at the Donor-s Conference on Agriculture which was held in Maseru in October 1980. FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY' LESOTHO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR REVIEW TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. * SUMMARY ........ ............................................. i-iv PREFACE.... i-ii I. BACKGROUND.o .. 1 A. Agriculture in the Economy ... 1 B. Agricultural Employment . . . 2 C. Role of Women ... .. 4 D. The Policy Framework . . ............................... 5 II. THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR... 6 A. Land Tenure.. . 6 B. Crop Agriculture. . . 7 C. Livestock ....12 D . Soil Conservation . . .15 E. Ministry of Agriculture . . .18 F. Commercial Services and Marketing . .20 III. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES .21 IV. POLICY ISSUES ..27 ANNEXES 1. Agriculture and the Economy 2. Labor and Employment 3. The Role of Women 4. Physical Environment 5. Land Tenure 6. Commercial Services and Marketing 7. Present Situation and Future Prospects in Crop Agriculture 8. Livestock Development 9. Soil Erosion and Conservation 10. Forestry 11. Ministry of Agriculture 12. Ministry of Rural Development 13. Catalog of Major Documents This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. LESOTHO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR REVIEW SUMMARY i. Lesotho's agricultural sector is characterized by a basic paradox. The country is land poor; only 13% of its area is at all suitable for crop farming, only 0.4% is classified as good land, and yet more and more land is being put into fallowe Rather than intensify their agriculture, the Basotho took about 100,000 ha. out of production between 1973-74 and 1977-78 - a drop of nearly 30%. The total area in production has dropped by nearly 20% since 1950, despite a continuing increase in the resident rural population. This has traditonally been ascribed to labor shortage, but the relative unattrac- tiveness of returns from farming would seem to be the main cause. The Basotho agriculturalist faces an unhappy combination of steep slopes, erosion, degraded soils and chancy climate that makes much of Lesotbo a marginal area for cultivating its traditional crops of maize, sorghum, wheat and beans. 1/ The returns to labor are better in the RSA. Agriculture provided, in 1976, only 17% of rural household incomes, domestic off-farm sources provided 12%, and remittances 71%. The yearly gross cash margin from an average 2 ha holding in maize and beans is less than R50 -- compared to mine incomes of R1200 or better. Remittances are the major income source for almost three- quarters of rural households. ii. Although the Government allocated 33% of planned investment under the 1975-80 Second Development Plan to agriculture and rural development, output has been largely stagnant for some years. Its contribution to GDP has fluctuated recently between a high point of 51% in 1973/74, down to 37% in 1977/78. Exports of agricultural produce, mainly wool and mohair, have also declined (from 80% of the total recorded during 1970-73 to about 40% in 1977). At the same time, food imports have risen so that more than 40% of Lesotho's food now must be imported, either commercially -- mainly from South Africa -- or as food aid. Lesotho-s vulnerability (dramatized by the border problems with the Transkei in 1976) prompted a decision to establish strategic wheat and maize reserves and seek food self-sufficiency. iii. Livestock present another serious problem. Most rural families keep animals, which are grazed on communally held natural pastures, mostly in the mountains, and after harvest on crop residues on cultivated land. This communal grazing system encourages individuals to graze as many animals as possible, regardless of damage to the grazing land. Traditional methods of controlling this situation seem to have failed. Further impetus for large herds comes from the traditional value which Basotho place on livestock as symbols of wealth and status, and from the lack of more attractive alter- natives in which to invest savings. The excessive numbers of animals, however, 1/ There is wide agreement that poor management contributes heavily to crop yields being "marginal". Some officers in the Ministry of Agriculture claim, however, that the physical environment offers more promise than indicated here. have resulted in seriously degraded rangeland, poor animal nutrition, high mortality and, despite sizable imports, declining herds. Moreover, erosion, due in large part to overgrazing, is a widespread, major problem, affecting much of Lesotho's arable land as well as its rangelands. iv. There is increasing concern a s to the prospects for Lesotho's agriculture. So long as more attractive, less risky, and more remunerative work is available in the Republic of South Africa (RSA), the prospects for successfully introducing more intensive farming with significant and broad increases in output are poor. The experience of the IDA-assisted Thaba Bosiu Rural Development Project (Credit 361-LSO, $5.6 million) is instructive: while implementation of its physical components was good, participation was low, and the Project Completion Report found its economic rate of return to be negative. The traditional land-tenure system, under which household heads were allotted only enough land for family subsistence, and tenure could be lost if it was left fallow, has also served to reduce incentives to invest resources in agriculture. v. Even if official migration opportunities should continue to grow over the next 20 years so, most likely, will the domestic labor force. But employment opportunities in South Africa are expected to remain constant, or slowly decline. This, combined with population growth, will increase Lesotho's domestic work force substantially. The possible effects of this increase are unclear. Some portion of it will have to be absorbed into agriculture. Depending on wage rates in RSA and the remittances they generate, another group will probably continue to live on remittances with only marginal involvement in farming. Increases in both urban migration and illegal emigration to RSA can also be expected. vi. Over the longer run, it is anticipated that population growth and the shrinking of the South African labor market will increase the relative attractiveness of more land and labor-intensive agriculture. vii. Although the draft Thirdl Plan proposes some key policies and pro- grams (including implementation of a recently-passed Land Act which will allow present land holders, in effect, to acquire title), it does not lay out a sufficiently well articulated sitrategy for Lesotho-s future agricultural development. Such a strategy should comprise: (i) a careful selection of priorities for development under the current constraints of low interest in farming, overstocking, and a not-yet-equipped set of Government services; and (ii) preparations for the longer-term when cumulative changes in Lesotho-s wage employment and land tenure situation and the capacity of Government services would be likely to have a major impact on agriculture. viii. Among the priorities that the Government might consider for develop- ment under current constraints would be expansion of the output of Lesotho's most efficient farmers (the approximately 5% who earn their living almost entirely from agriculture) through more effective sharecropping and land rent- ing arrangements and by giving them access to better equipment maintenance and repair services, credit, and technical advice. At the other end of the spectrum, programs such as rural water supply, health, nutrition, and, perhaps, cooperative farming might be aimed at the often desperately poor 25% of rural households who do not receive remittances or have sufficient resources to earn satisfactory incomes. - iii - ix. The Government should also begin preparing for a longer-term shift to more intensive farming. As the number of persons depending on agriculture for their livelihood rises, cultivation presumably will have to shift away from present-day low-value crops to such crops as nuts and fruits, vegetables, perennial herbs for essential oils,and fodder for intensified livestock production. Specific ecologically suitable crops and varieties will have to be identified and tested and their market potential explored. Investigations of some (e.g. lucerne, irrigated vegetables and asparagus introduced by the IDA-assisted Thaba Bosiu project) already have been initiated, though the areas suitable for their cultivation are quite limited. Others, such as apples, peaches and vines are grown at present, and seem to offer large potential for improvement. Introducing these more intensive crops also should offer opportunities for further employment in drying, processing, canning and other agro-related industries. x. Equally important would be steps to reduce the number -- perhaps by as much as one third -- of grazing livestock to allow the rangelands to recover. Since less than 10% of Lesotho's families reportedly own nearly one half of the nation-s livestock, however, direct measures probably would be politically sensitive. Direct measures even to introduce or enforce desirable livestock husbandry practices such as castration and culling of inferior animals seem to have no support. The same is true of proposals to levy livestock taxes. One is forced to conclude, therefore, that the only chance of obtaining congruence of private and public interests in these matters lies in changes in the institutional arrangements for access to grazing land. xi. Besides reducing livestock numbers, it is important that the Govern- ment seek ways to channel the savings of migrant workers, and others, away from livestock and into other investments more beneficial to the country. Once the numbers of animals are reduced and controlled grazing is introduced, measures can be undertaken to rehabilitate the pastures,to improve animal health and animal husbandry generally, as well as to introduce more cost effective conservation practices based on increased vegetative cover of the soil. xii. Finally, the Ministry of Agriculture will have to be further strengthened and effective systems to deliver supplies and services to farmers developed. These are the primary objectives of the Basic Agricultural Services Program (BASP), for which IDA in 1978 extended a $6.0 million credit (along with financing from the Federal Republic of Germany, UK, European Development Fund and UNDP). The Ministry took the initiative recently of reorganizing its extension services and revising its technical cropping guidelines for extension use in the field. Both initiatives will require regular review to ensure that they are meeting farmers' needs. Except for pricing policy and regulatory functions, responsibilities for input supplies and produce marketing have been transferred to the Ministry of Rural Develop- ment, which is seeking financial aid for the ailing Government-owned trading concerns, PMC and Coop Lesotho. Given the declining marketable crop surpluses and the difficulties of monopolizing input deliveries to all - iv - regions of Lesotho, it is indispensible that the delivery/marketing system be cost effective. This will require full exploitation of the many other trading channels that already exist such as private traders and farmer cooperatives. xiii. The development strategy that has just been sketched poses several major policy issues for Government. It calls for Government to take effective steps to control livestock numbers, to reassess previous objectives such as self-sufficiency in foodgrains, and to be cautious in the current swing to- wards cooperative forms of production so as not to unsettle other, established modes. LESOTHO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR REVIEW PREFACE i. This Review has three purposes: first, to describe the agricultural sector of Lesotho's economy and to understand the causes of its poor perform- ance; second, to examine the country-s likely future demands on the sector and its potential for meeting these and to propose a tentative strategy for doing so; and third, to explore the principal policy issues related to future sector development. ii. The reason for undertaking such a Review at this time was a growing conviction within the Bank that further support of individual projects in the sector would prove risky if not guided by a better understanding of the agricultural economy as a whole. Experience with its first such project, the Thaba Bosiu Rural Development Project, revealed a propensity on the Bank's part to overestimate the sector-s technical possibilities and the commitment to farming of its rural population. For example, the appraisal report for that project exaggerated the potential of fertilizer to increase crop yields, and it failed to perceive how much more attractive for farmers were the prospects of employment outside the agricultural sector. iii. The Thaba Bosiu Project also provided a lesson on the importance of institution building. It created an independent project implementing agency outside the Ministry of Agriculture, equipped to attract able staff and to set up parallel administrative structures, which further weakened an already strug- gling Ministry. It became apparent during appraisal of a subsequent project - the Basic Agricultural Services Program (BASP) - when some of these organiza- tional problems came into sharper focus, that the Bank would need in future a better background knowledge. iv. During the processing of the BASP proposals, the responsible Bank staff recognized that the crop subsector was mostly a subsistence activity carried out by women and that the natural resource endowment of the country was such that it severely limited prospects for any rapid increase in crop output. But it became clear in spite of-or even because of - the many poten- tial difficulties that strengthening the Ministry of Agriculture was the most important priority and that this should be the primary objective and justification of BASP. A strong, capable Ministry was needed if only to coordinate the many disparate development efforts financed by Lesotho's donor friends. v. In the early stages of its formulation, BASP had been a broad set of proposals, comprising a number of -complex' activities in addition to the -simple activities that were finally supported under the BASP concept. The complex activities, which included livestock and research proposals, dropped out for a number of reasons. The result was that many of the linkages between the current crop-oriented components of BASP arnd the rest of the - ii - sector had to be developed separately from BASP. Furthermore, Government had anticipated that it could negotiate separate project arrangements to strengthen the fledgling Produce Marketing Corporation (PMC) for which BASP was providing stores, staffing and equipment. These arrangements never materialized. The PMC has since suffered virtual collapse, which has under- mined the efforts of BASP. These experiences and the Ministry's continuing difficulties in coordinating even the different donor efforts in BASP under- score the importance of having a strong planning and coordinating body for the sector.l/ vi. The findings of this ReviLew confirm the importance of this role for the Ministry. They also confirm the desirability of having a broad sector framework for evaluating individual projects. They show clearly the current marginal contribution of agriculture to the welfare of most rural households in Lesotho and the risks attached to ignoring this reality in development strategies. They call for a significant effort in adaptive research to enable Lesotho in the future to develop its agriculture in different, more appropriate directions. They also confirm the need to recognize the linkages or interdependencies among cropping, livestock and soil conservation and, in general, the desirability of seeking a unified, comprehensive strategy for solving Lesotho-s agricultural problems. vii. The Bank itself is the most obvious audience for a document of this kind. Other potential users are the other members of the donor community who provide assistance to Lesotho-s agricultural development and, of course, the Government of Lesotho. It is hoped that the Review provides a useful point of view for the Government to consider as it prepares its future plans for the sector. It is also hoped that it stimulates the donor community to achieve agreement on the kind of assistance they should render, thus lessening the Ministry-s future task of coordination. viii. Consultations between Government and the Bank on the contents of earlier drafts of this report were extremely useful, and the authors wish to acknowledge with appreciation the helpful comments of reviewers in Lesotho, especially in the Ministry of Agriculture. In the single case where these comments have not led to an appropriate amendment of the report (one involving differing views on the potential of the physical environment for crop produc- tion), a footnote has been added to acknowledge the dissenting view (see para. i of the Summary). In some olher cases, where the comments revealed that certain situations described in the text have been overtaken by events, as is true for example of marketing services and agricultural planning capacity, a footnote has been added to bring natters up to date (see para. v in this Preface); altogether, the Main Report carries five footnotes of this type. 1/ Government has recently taken steps to revive the operations of PMC through an Agricultural Marketing and Credit Project now under con- sideration by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). It also concluded agreements with USAID in August 1980 for an Agricultural Planning Project. I. BACKGROUND A. Agriculture in the Economy 1.01 Agriculture has been a stagnating sector in Lesotho, although it continues to be the major source of employment for the domestic economy. During the 1966-1978 period, the sector experienced a real growth rate of only 1.1% per annum and a negative real per capita growth rate. Over the same period, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at over 4% in real terms and Gross National Product (GNP) by over 10% due to the relatively fast growth in tourism, construction, the public sector, and most important, in migrant remittances. 1.02 Lesotho's GNP is considerably larger than its GDP, and GNP represents a truer picture of the resources available to the country. The difference is due primarily to migrant remittances. In 1966/67 migrant remittances stood at R7.8 million, compared with an agricultural sector output (agricultural GDP) of R17.6 million (or 45% of (DP). By 1977/78, migrant remittances had regis- tered a fifteenfold increase to R117.4 million (current prices) compared to a threefold increase for agriculture which stood at R51.8 million (or 36% of GDP). Over the time period being discussed, agriculture's contribution to GNP declined from 34% to 18%, compared to a dramatic increase from 15% to 42% for remittances. 1.03 Crop production provides about one-half of total agricultural output, with the remainder being derived from livestock production. An estimated one-third of output, mainly livestock products like wool and mohair, enters the market, the other two-thirds are used for household subsistence. The sector is dominated by smallholders, most of whom are unable to satisfy all their food subsistence needs from their agricultural production. 1.04 Rural households in Lesotho derive their income from three major sources: the agricultural sector, domestic off-farm employment, and migrant remittances. Survey data show that by 1976 agriculture provided about 17% of rural income, off-farm employment about 12%, and migrant remittances 71%. Over the 1975-80 Development Plan period, remittances had grown to an average of R700 per rural family. 1.05 The distribution of incomes in Lesotho seems to have worsened. While the majority of the population have enjoyed increasing incomes in recent years, mainly from the growth in remittances, and the incidence of poverty has been declining, a significant minority has experienced a serious loss in relative and even absolute income: the statistics show a major decline in the income share of the bottom 25% of households, from a 15% share in 1967-69 to 2% in 1975-76. The principal explanation for this lies in the distribution of migrant remittances, which are concentrated among families in the middle and upper ends of the income distribution, and the rapid increase in migrant wages. The reasons for an absolute decline in the lower 25% income level are not clear. But they probably include declining land allotments per household and lack of wage employment growth in the agricultural sector. The poorest groups depend almost totally on agricultural income. - 2 - 1.06 Surveys indicate that there has been a general improvement in the nutrition of the population, resulting from the increased incomes enjoyed by the majority of households and the nutrition programs that serve young children, expectant mothers, and poor families. Nevertheless, certain features of malnutrition are still prevalent among these groups, and the worsened financial situation of the poorest households threaten continuing nutritional problems in the future. 1.07 The country's external trade is dominated by imports. During the 1970-77 period, recorded merchandise imports accounted, on average, for about 57% of GNP. This proportion rose to about 80% in 1977 and 1978. About three- quarters of the growth in imports can be traced to increases in the import of consumer goods induced in large part by the income effect of escalating migrant remittances. Imports of food and livestock have grown rapidly: from R6 million in 1970 (about 34% of agricultural GDP) to R37.9 million in 1976 (about 90% of agricultural GDP) when they represented about 40% of total food consumption. Ten percent of this consumption is donated food aid. 1.08 Merchandise exports have been relatively stable during the 1970s at about 7% of GNP. (By contrast, the corresponding ratios for Botswana and Swaziland are 60% or more). Agricultural products contribute 50-60% of exports, comprising mainly wool, mohair, and beans. The large deficit in merchandise trade is partly compensated for by the high level of exports of factor services, mainly in the form of migrant labor 'exports,' and official transfers arising from customs revenue and foreign aid. 1.09 Government devoted 33% of its Second Plan public investment expendi- tures to Agriculture and Rural Development, and it has earmarked 21% of planned expenditures for these purposes under the (draft) Third Plan, 1980/81 to 1984/85. The main weakness of these proposals is their failure to identify convincingly the priority areas for investment. B. Agricultural Employment 1.10 The 1976 Population Census reported a total population for Lesotho of 1,217,000, and a resident population of 1,064,000. The difference of 153,000 represents those Basotho absent in South Africa and elsewhere, although this figure does not give an accurate indication of the incidence of migrant, temporary employment. 1.11 As explained in Annex 2, there are unresolved differences among estimates of the magnitudes of Lesotho's labor force and employment. But according to one set of estimates, the size of the labor force in 1976 stood at 684,000 of which 553,000 were employed: 198,000 as migrants in RSA (36%); and 355,000 in Lesotho (64%). If we subtract from the latter figure employ- ment in the modern Lesotho wage sector (some 32,000 in 1977) and employ- ment in the informal sector and handicrafts (23,000), the residual number employed in agriculture is 300,000. Other estimates of agricultural employ- ment tend to be higher, but they are also less precise about likely levels -3- of unemployment. The above estimates are at least explicit about total unemployment in 1976: 131,000, most of whom would be distributed in rural areas. 1.12. According to these same estimates, the open unemployment rate is about 19%, not unduly high for a developing country, comprising 15% for males, 23% for females. Migrant employment involves about 90% males; hence, the majority of employed males (63%) work outside Lesotho. 1.13 Relatively high wages obtainable in RSA explain the migrant labor phenomenon. Between 1972 and 1978 the basic shift wage (26 shifts per month) showed a sixfold increase from RO.49 to R2.95. During the same period, the average unskilled wage rate in Lesotho quadrupled from RO.38 to R1.54 per day. By contrast, the average rate of remuneration for agricultural activities, defined as the average income from crops and livestock, is estimated to have increased from R120 per annum in 1972 to about R200 in 1978. This certainly cannot be compared with the average annual earnings of R1,123 in 1978 from migrant employment in South Africa, which largely explains the disinclination of Basotho to engage in agricultural pursuits. 1.14 If past rates of population growth (2.3% p.a.) continue, Lesotho's population will exceed 2 million by the year 2000, and Lesotho's labor force is likely to reach over 1 million, a net increase of 400,000 to 500,000. Since the domestic labor supply - especially that to the agricultural sector - tends to be residual in nature, the proportion of this net addition to the labor force that will need to be absorbed within the domestic economy will depend on what happens to future labor migration to South Africa. 1.15 Basotho migrants constituted some 20% of the total South African mining workforce in 1978 (up from 13% in 1967). But unemployment has increased considerably among all population groups in South Africa in recent times. In response, the South African Chamber of Mines initiated a drive to 'localize' the black African labor force. This resulted in the share of domestic South African mine labor in total mining employment increasing from about 20% in 1973 to over 50% by 1978. 1.16 Other policies also seem to be working against any growth in the foreign labor force. Miners are being offered more renewed and longer con- tracts to help stabilize the labor force with more experienced and skilled workers. This is likely to reduce mining job opportunities for young Basotho entering the labor market for the first time. Mechanization of mining opera- tions is reducing labor employment in collieries. 1.17 What then is the future for Basotho migrant labor? The two most likely outcomes, reviewed in Annex 2 are a stabilization of migrant employment at recent levels, or a gradual reduction. A third possibility, though less likely, is a renewed growth in migrant employment. 1.18 One of the likely outcomes is for migrant employment to stabilize at recent levels; that is, at about 200,000 jobs or within + 10% of that -4- number. Our subjective estimate of the probability of this outcome is 0.4 (on a scale of 0-1.0). If this eventuates, the number of additional Basotho expected to need employment in the agricultural sector over the next 20 years would total some 250,000. 1.19 The other likely outcome (subjective probability 0.4) is for migrant employment to contract, possibly to about 120,000 by the year 2000. This would increase the pressure for employment creation in Lesotho's agricultural sector by adding a further 80,000 jobs needed, bringing the total new job requirements to 330,000. 1.20 There is also the possibility, of course, that legal and illegal employment opportunities in RSA will increase significantly - say, to beyond 220,000 by the year 2000 (subjective probability 0.2). Such an increase could result, for instance, from better-than-forecast economic growth in South Africa. If these opportunities keep pace with the expected rate of increase in the labor force over the next 20 years (54%), migrant employment would rise to 308,000. This would still leave a need, however, for 142,000 new jobs in the rural nector. 1.21 The main value of this exercise is to observe what is common among the range of plausible outcomes. There is a strong probability, almost an inevitability, that the agricultural sector will have to employ an additional 140,000 to 330,000 Basotho over th-ie next 20 years. The only events that would prevent this from becoming a reality are an unexpectedly strong demand for migrant labor, a lack of remunerative employment opportunities in agriculture, and a preference by the unemployed to live on remittances from those employed in the Republic. We shall adopt the premise, therefore, that the future strategy for agricultural development should provide, among other things, for a significant increase in employment. C. Role of Women i.22 Migration has given many rural households a relatively high income, but at a high social cost in terms of the quality of family life. In 1976, the proportion of rural households with a migrant was 60%. The average male who migrates spends 15 years, or 35% of his working life, away from home. This way of life strains personal and other domestic relationships in households and leads to an agricultural labor force which is predominantly female. 1.23 Most of the wives left behind are heavily dependent on remittances received from their migrant husbands. They tend to be dissatisfied with the amount they receive, with the uncertainty of its arrival, and with their limited control over how much can be spent on agriculture. They are also frustrated by traditional crop land tenure arrangements that effectively deny them decision-making authority over land use. 1.24 While there was previously a clear division of labor by sex for agricultural tasks, absences of males have forced women to take over or assist with many male tasks. Women even assist with ploughing and planting, which were the main agricultural tasks traditionally carried out by males. Hand labor operations like weeding and harvesting - traditionally women's responsibility - make up over 80% of total labor inputs during the growing season. Residential gardens are also women's responsibility. They are poorly maintained, fertilizer is seldom used, seeds are inferior, and most of them are worked only with a spade. Women also raise poultry and pigs. Gardens and rural poultry have considerable potential for improving the availability of food and for generating household income. Much of the needed advice and assistance for these agricultural activities have to be directed, therefore, at women. 1.25 Lesotho has a high rate of literacy among women, which facilitates their training in agriculture. Among the available programs, the Lesotho Distance Training Center (LDTC) offers many programs of interest to women, related to household as well as income-earning skills, and it provides communi- cations support to various agencies. The community outreach program of the Training for Self Reliance Project (TSRP) responds to training needs identified by village committees, on which women are represented. Within the formal education system, women are well represented at the Lesotho Agricultural College, although they concentrate there on "rural domestic economy" rather than on agriculture. But the need to train and use women as extension agents has been recognized. Women already occupy many positions among headquarters and field staff of the Ministry of Agriculture. 1.26 Among the initiatives which the GOL has taken to recognize and support the substantial contributions women have been making to agriculture and rural development is the establishment of a national organization for women; the Women's Bureau. It will coordinate women's activities in rural areas and assist in directing services to them. Its priority tasks are to address the various factors limiting women's role in agriculture as well as their broader role in rural areas. This latter role, though peripheral to our direct interest here, is important. It involves the rural employment of women under food-for-work projects, creation of other rural employment opportunities, the improvement of village amenities, nutrition programs, and - most import- ant - the control of population growth. D. The Policy Framework 1.27 Lesotho has a mixed, market-oriented economy in which Government does not engage directly in production, except for certain utilities. Labor migration, the largest single industry, reflects private decisions, and Government is unlikely to introduce any direct controls on labor flows. 1.28 As far as agriculture is concerned, Government has a predilection for activism in areas like agricultural marketing, in which the private sector used to be supreme, and in the cooperative movement, which it regards -6- as being more compatible (than other private forms of enterprise) with tradi- tional social customs. In common with many other African countries, Lesotho is seeking new institutional arrangements that can absorb traditional ways of doing things, yet overcome the latters' handicaps in the modern world. This is particularly true in the case of land tenure which is awaiting implementa- tion of recent legislative changes. Here, the policy framework is currently an interesting one and promises to allow many more options than formerly existed. 1.29 Among formidable constraints on policy initiatives are the land- locked situation of the country, the existence of efficient marketing systems for agricultural produce at all its borders, and the long time it will take for some of its land tenure reforms to become operational and for the cooperative movement to become a vital force. II. THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR A. Land Tenure 2.01 No Mosotho can claim outright ownership of land, which is vested in the Basotho Nation: Residential rights, which are a prior condition for obtaining land cultivation rights are generally available to married adult males who may then be entitled to usufruct rights over as many as three arable fields. 2.02 Private rights to the produce of arable land are seasonal. At the end of the crop growing season, all livestock are permitted to graze whatever is left on the fields under the customary practice of Mohoang, thus leading to the removal of post-harvest vegetative cover. Land left unculti- vated for more than three years can be revoked by the chief for reallocation. Share cropping is common. Farmers owning oxen offer ploughing and planting services to those in need of them in return for a share of the crop. By this means farmers with resources can enlarge their cropped area. Gardens and trees flourish around most residential sites, which can be fenced, thus offering greater potential for private development. Grazing rights are communal in character and there are no limits to the number of animals owned and grazed. 2.03 The Land Act 1979 increases the security of existing allottees' tenure to arable fields by clearly defining an allocation and recording the rights of inheritance of allocations. Landless people, who comprise more than 13% of rural households, may henceforth be excluded from land rights. The Act also provides for the granting of agricultural leases. Land suitable for lease can be identified by the joint action of the Ministers of the Interior and Agriculture in declaring an area of agricultural land a "Selected Agricultural Area," the primary purpose being to foster the develop- ment of this land by "modern farming techniques." A lessee will be entitled under specified conditions to the exclusive possession of the land leased, to dispose of his interest, to encumber the land by mortgage, and to sublet. Two - 7 - important matters still undecided are how Selected Agricultural Areas will be determined and whether individuals or village production cooperatives will become the dominant form of lessee. 2.04 The main issues raised by the customary tenure system have been: (a) the insecurity and seasonality of tenure on arable land; (b) productivity disincentives arising from the subsistence criterion used to detemine the quantity of land needed by a household; and (c) the overstocking that is induced by communal grazing rights. The nature of these issues receives detailed attention in the sections to follow. The introduction of a new, modern form of title will help to resolve some of the problems of customary tenure, but the reforms carry with them certain risks for Basotho society. One risk is that many more Basotho will gradually lose the kind of social security offered by customary rights to arable land. B. Crop Agriculture 2.05 Most of the attention of agricultural development since Independence has been focussed on crop agriculture. The Government, with considerable foreign assistance, has attempted to expand production and promote eventual self sufficiency in the major subsistence crops. These attempts have failed so far. Stagnating Crop Production 2.06 Crop production in Lesotho has been stagnant for a number of years. Only 13% of the total land area is considered in any way suitable for crop farming and much of the arable area consists of soils of depleted fertility, some of which have, in addition, difficult physical properties. These factors, combined with steep slopes and a hazardous climate, are reflected in comparatively low yields of Lesotho's traditional crops of maize, sorghum, wheat and beans. 2.07 The steady growth in population over the past thirty years has led to a reduction in land allocated per family and an increase in the number of completely landless families. Yet despite the apparent shortage of land, the area cropped declined in recent years by more than 100,000 ha, or about 30%, to reach levels in 1977-78 that were well below (by as much as 20%) even the area cultivated in 1950. 2.08 Why this decline in cultivated area? It is not because of any physical shortage of labor. In 1976, there were 459,000 people of working age not involved in schooling or wage employment in Lesotho as compared with approximately 288,000 in 1950, an addition of 171,000. Yet the evidence points to a substantial withdrawal of labor from crop production. The main explanation seems to be the relatively low returns from crop farming compared with the wage rewards of migration and with the subsistence made possible by migrant remittances to rural households. - 8 - 2.09 Farmers have responded to the totality of Lesotho's environment, including its uncertainties, by practicing a low input, low return, low risk system. By using few purchased inputs farmers reduce their potential production in good climatic years but lower their financial losses in a bad one. Project interventions in the past have attempted to inLroduce higher levels of purchased inputs, but most farmers continue with low risk systems which provide correspondingly low returns to labor. Some survey estimates suggest that returns to labor on the major grain crops (maize, wheat, sorghum), using PMCGs market prices for valuing output, are less than two cents per hour. Other methods of estimation give six cents an hour for maize sold to PMC, or 15 cents an hour for maize used as a replacement for purchased flour. These compare with wages of 8-16 cents per hour paid to casual farm labor working a five-hour day. By comparison, mineworkers currently earn 56 cents per hour. 2.10 Even a high value crop like asparagus from which it is claimed that a family can make R150 per year from a 0.2 ha plot does not offer an attrac- tive alternative to an able bodied man able to earn up to R1,200 per year in the mines. As a source of cash, a typical 2 ha holding allocated to 1-1/2 ha of maize and 1/2 ha of beans could be expected to produce about R47 for the year, net of direct expenses, excluding household labor. At current rates a miner earns that amount in only ten shifts. 2.11 Because of the many past employment opportunities in the Republic of South Africa, Basotho men have been able to choose between farming and wage employment. As a result of their choice, the rural community can be roughly divided into three major groups: (a) 5% - 10% of the community, comprising households with accu- mulated resources which they are prepared to invest in crop farming. These households are usually headed by a man who tends to have sufficient sons for some to work in the mines and earn money while others assist with the farm, and suffi- cient cattle to provide draught power and farm yard manure; (b) 70% of the community, comprising households in which the man is engaged in wage employment away from home, in which the household is headed by a woman, and in which wage remittances form the basis of domestic finance with crop farming making a marginal contribution to family income; and (c) 20-25% of the community, comprising households with few resources and without significant wage income. 2.12 The large (b) group of households who are dependent upon remittances for most of their family income are an important factor in understanding the stagnation in agricultural production in recent years and the sharp drop in the area cultivated despite the steady rise in the domestic labor force. With the rapid rise in wages (500% in the South African mines between 1972 and 1978), this group has become increasingly independent of crop farming for its income, and in consequence commitment to farming has declined and the area of land cropped per head of population has dropped sharply as people have withdrawn their labor from low return crop production. At present, the attraction of wage employment in the Republic and the use of remittances to support a large - 9 - proportion of Lesotho residents are the dominant factors influencing the agricultural sector. Potential for Increasing Output 2.13 The past 17 years of research demonstrates that the use of high technology farming in Lesotho can at times produce excellent results but that the risks involved make it particularly difficult to offer recommendations to farmers which will not carry with them the danger of incurring serious losses. Comparison of research experience and farmer achievements reveals that a number of farmers among group (a) in para 2.11 above have evolved their own packages which give comparable results to experimental plots, but without the same order of financial risks. 2.14 Studies of these better farmers reveal that they produce three to four times the value of crops per unit area than that of average farmers. There are many explanations for this. Among them: the better farming house- holds contain more adult males. This explanation implies better management, but it is also linked to such households' better control over the timing of ploughing and ox powered weeding which are still mostly carried out by men; 88% of the better farmers owned draught animals as compared with 47% of ordinary farmers. 2.15 There are also indications that time of planting and intensity of weeding during the first 60 days of crop life are the factors most likely to influence the impact of fertilizer on crop yields. Both of these practices are outside of the control of families who do not have their own draught power. The significance of farm yard manure as a critical factor in some of the successful packages is difficult to assess. Those people who have suffi- cient cattle to provide both fuel and surplus manure for their fields will automatically have sufficient draught power to enable them to carry out timely ploughing, planting and weeding. What is clear from existing data is that the use of fertilizer in the absence of a range of complementary husbandry prac- tices does not usually result in large increases in crop yields. 2.16 While there is much of interest yet to be understood, one must recognize that such (scarce) factors as male labor, animal draught power, and farm yard manure will limit the general applicability of a package in which these are essential factors. Furthermore, even the best farmers are not achieving incomes from their smallholdings which compare with those offered by mine employment. Government Interventions to Increase Output 2.17 Since the 1950s the Government has been dissatisfied with the progress made through the conventional extension services and it has sponsored a number of attempts to accelerate agricultural change through intensive rural development schemes. There have been a succession of these over the years in different parts of the country. The ones reviewed in Annex 7 are: (a) several small scale projects (Tebetebeng Pilot Project, 1953-60; Thaba Phatsoa - 10 - Project, 1963-77; Liphiring Project, 1971-77; and Ratau Cropland Scheme, 1976-77; (b) the Thaba Bosiu Project; (c) the Senqu River Project; and (d) the Leribe and Khomokhoana Projects. 2.18 The record of all these projects has been disappointing. Staff of the area-based projects at Leribe, Khomokhoana, Senqu River and Thaba Bosiu carried out demonstrations of crop production using "improved" practices and purchased inputs. Because of the low benefit to cost ratios of these cropping systems and the heavy losses which have been incurred in unfavorable years, there has been no uptake by farmers outside the demonstration plot areas of the high input, high technology methods which have been advocated. None of the projects achieved their stated goals, and while there were many accom- plishments, the projects were actuElly failures if judged against their stated goals. 2.19 They failed for several reasons: (a) the goals themselves were over-optimistic both in terms of what was likely to be achieved in increasing yields and in acceptance rates by farmers; (b) the hazards of farming in Lesotho were consistently under-estimated; (c) crop losses resulting from projected soil erosion tended to be over-estimated; (d) the cost and effort required to construct physical earthworks to control erosion were out of line with the benefits perceived by the farmer; (e) integrating autonomous projects with a high level of expatriate staff into district and national organizations proved difficult; and (f) the projects were based on the false assumption that the bulk of the rural population were committed farmers who were looking for methods of investing additional resources and labor into more intensive farming systems. 2.20 The most recent attempt by Government and external agencies to assist the farming population is through the Basic Agricultural Services Program (BASP). BASP is designed to increase crop output in the lowlands through strengthening the Ministry of Agriculture with training and technical assistance, providing stores for input distribution and crop marketing, upgrading rural roads, and providing equipment repair facilities, roads, and credit. The program is being funded by a number of agencies including IDA. Government has divided the country into six -blocks' and allocated one or more of these 'blocks' to interested donors. IDA has been responsible for funding the training and central services components. By late 1979, work had started in five out of the six 'blorks'. The field strategy, as proposed in the appraisal report, is based on promoting a simple -package- of using 50 kg of fertilizer per acre, some insecticiee, and row planting of crops to achieve what was hoped to be an increase in yield of approximately 125 kg of grains and 35 kg of pulses per acre. 2.21 BASP faces several problems at this time: (a) increased domestic consumption of grains and pulses and a declining volume of sales to the market, which makes it difficult to maintain a viable marketing organization and avoid the establishment of uneconomic rural marketing depots; (b) the difficulty of integrating the regional operations of a diverse group of donors into the local and central structures of the Ministry; and (c) the problem of promoting a simple agricultural package offering low incremental returns to labor. (Although the increases attributed to fertilizer use in the project projections are modest, recent evidence from survey data indicates that the use of the recommended package may not in fact achieve them). - 11 - 2.22 Despite these difficulties the project does have the potential to strengthen the Ministry's management and services and to provide the infra- structure which would be required if crop farming becomes more important to the bulk of families, and if more attractive technical innovations are identified. Nevertheless, it does not have any specific components which address the needs of the poorest members of the community, nor does it include any innovative work on crops which could form the basis of a more intensive crop production system if that should become appropriate in the future. 2.23 Irrigation does not offer any quick solution for increasing crop production. The area of potentially irrigable land is limited to 17,000 ha. The winters are too cold for most field crops, and the high silt load of rivers contributes to short effective lives for dams and pumping equipment. Of some two dozen schemes established during the first two Plan periods, most have failed or are running at a loss. The main thrust of future irrigation development is likely to favor intensive horticultural crops to replace those now imported from South Africa. 2.24 The Ministry introduced its Cooperative Crops Production Program in 1976 to increase winter wheat production, demonstrate better cultivation methods, and address the problem of improper land use by farmers. It provided contracting services to -blocks' of farmers under the traditional system of share-cropping and was based on fully mechanized field operations. The program functioned at a loss for the three crop years, 1976/77 to 1978/79, before making an apparent profit in the 1979/80 season. 2.25 Having demonstrated that the modern methods used for growing wheat, potatoes, sunflower and teff can result in serious financial losses, the CCPP has been undergoing a redirection of its purpose since January 1, 1980. Government intends that the former CCPP blocks will be organized as cooperatives which will assume the business risks of crop farming. The Ministry will continue to provide mechanized contracting services through its Technical Operations Unit. 2.26 The new Land Act is the most recent intervention by Government. Arable land in Lesotho fulfills two socio-economic functions: (a) it provides a productive resource of varying degrees of importance to rural households; and (b) it is an essential form of social security for those who join the wage sector in or outside the country, and for most of whom there is no organized form of social insurance; as such it forms an essential part of the migrant labor system. 2.27 Past tenurial regulations guaranteed in principle that each Mosotho male would be allocated land for cultivation. They also required that tenure could only be maintained if the land was regularly cultivated. This latter requirement has been one of the contributing factors to the low level of farming practiced by many families for whom cultivation is little more than a means of maintaining access to a continuing social security asset. 2.28 The new legislation defining lifelong, heritable rights to land will affect this aspect of land holding in two ways. First, a strictly finite area of arable land, all of which is now allocated, will be closed to new entrants to the land market, and there will be a growing number of landless Basotho. This will result in strong pressures on the labor market and in - 12 - increased hardship for those who cannot obtain wage employment. Second, allottees and lessees will not have to cultivate their land on an annual basis in order to maintain their rights.l/ This could lead to an increase in fallow land or to a system of sub-letting land to the landless or to those with the capacity to farm more than their allocation. This latter possibility of sub- letting land to those who really want it may lead to increased productivity. C. Livestock General 2.29 Livestock have traditionally played a major role in the economy and social life of Lesotho. They include cattle, merino-type sheep, angora (mohair) goats, pigs, poultry, fish, horses and donkeys. Cattle provide draught, meat, dung (fuel) and milk. They are also used in the payment of the bride price and in naming and other ceremonies and, in the absence of other major forms of investment, they represent the most reliable vehicle for the accumulation of wealth. Sheep and goats have been the main source of agri- cultural exports, namely wool and mohair. An estimated 80,000 pigs roam and scavenge in many villages; the country has a well organized poultry industry, and its producers meet the current market demand for eggs. There is a project to establish village fish ponds in selected villages. The sturdy Basotho 'pony- and donkey are both important for transport in a country where many people live far from roads, in remote hamlets. 2.30 A relatively small proportion (8%) of households are estimated to own approximately half the countrys livestock, through which they exercise effec- tive usufruct rights over half the country-s land, without charge. There is no form of agistment payment or of livestock tax, other than levies on wool and mohair exports. 2.31 Lesotho is fortunate in the almost total absence of serious animal disease. Sheep scab, which had been eradicated, was re-introduced on two rams in 1975 and spread rapidly. It has required an intensive campaign of dipping. 2.32 In spite of having 0.5 m cattle, 1.2 m sheep and 0.6 m goats, the country imports large amounts of meat and dairy produce and since 1975, not less than 30,000 live cattle annually. 2.33 The construction of a new abattoir is nearing completion and is expected to handle 25,000 cattle and 50,000 sheep annually with a single shift (250 days). Possible access to the European market under the Lome Convention offers the prospect of a strong demand for manufacturing beef and might enable the abattoir to operate successfully.2/ The only constraint would seem to be on the supply side. Exports of cattle and small stock had fallen to a trickle by 1977. Observers blame livestock marketing deficiencies, but the poor quality of slaughter animals is also a factor. 1/ Recently published regulations (Legal Notice No. 15) are said to deny such maintenance of rights in the absence of cultivation. 2/ Recent proposals indicate that the abattoir may attempt to supply frozen high grade beef. - 13 - 2.34 The national cattle herd of about 0.5 million head contains a large proportion of old cows and old oxen. Inadequate nutrition especially during the winter which can be severe, causes high losses and poor reproductive performance. Cattle provide draught (work) and dung much of which is used for fuel. 2.35 The country's small stock - 1.8 million sheep and goats - also exhibit poor reproductive performance, and the clips are low by comparison with R.S.A. 2.36 Intensive livestock production includes egg and broiler, milk, feedlot finishing of beef (on a pilot scale), and fish farming. A pig industry is under consideration. High energy and high protein livestock rations are generally imported or the ingredients are imported for local compounding. Non-imported feedstuffs include locally produced brands of wheat and maize (Hominy chop). Milling offals are available from the Wheat Mill at Maseru and the Lesotho Mill, Maputsu. 2.37 Approximately 1,500 poultry farmers with between 100 and 2,000 laying birds each operate a total flock of 250,000 birds which are producing 5.4 m dozen eggs per year; this meets the current market demand, although improvements to marketing and distribution would allow further growth. Broiler production is limited and faces stiff competition from imports. 2.38 Fresh milk is produced in many cattle-owning households for their own consumption. A small dairy and a number of farmers owning improved stock produce milk for the Maseru market. The extension of this scheme is restricted by problems of providing an artificial insemination service at distances greater than 25 km from Maseru, and by poor marketing arrangements, high feed costs and breeding problems. 2.39 Government s attempts to promote intensive rural development projects included attempts to promote livestock development. Feedlots were established in a number of the area based projects including the Senqu, Thaba Bosiu and Khomokhoana Projects. Feedlot trials generally covered the cost of the feeding, but have rarely met overhead costs. The Thaba-Tseka Project was initially concerned with the development and utilization of mountain grassland but has subsequently been expanded to include crop cultivation and all aspects of social development in a mountain environment. The Mphaki Project was formulated in 1977 but has encountered a variety of delays. One component has been the formation of a Brown Swiss Grazing Association and the enclosure of 400 ha of grazing land. Distribution of grade Friesian cattle has been a component of both the Thaba Bosiu and Khomokhoana projects. The Government-run Botsabelo dairy produces a limited quantity of milk for the Maseru market. 2.40 Various attempts to prevent the increase in stock numbers have been tried. In the late fifties, traders were allowed to import a tolly or yearling if they exported a mature animal. Several projects prepared recently for bilateral financing feature efforts to sponsor lower stocking rates and increased marketings. To date, however, no proven measures for reducing numbers have been employed widely in Lesotho. - 14 - 2.41 A dec'line in livestock numbers in recent years has been attributed mainly to a widespread and serious deterioration in the condition of Lesotho's grassland. The latter are unusual in their floristic composition and are outstandingly productive; however, for nearly half a century there has been a serious decline in their productivity. Many individuals have commented on this, although there is an almost total lack of quantified information. The more obvious forms of degradation are soil erosion. Equally serious are changes in the floristic composition. Among these changes are a decrease in the more acceptable (palatable) plants, an increase in unacceptable or less acceptable plants, an increaLse is bare ground including pedestalling and the loss of soil between the surviving tussocks. 2.42 The traditional system of animal husbandry has evolved around what would seem to be a well ordered pattern of transhumance between the lowlands (winter) and the mountain grazing areas (summer). Grazing rights were allocated by chiefs and there was a vigorous and enforced system of control. At the present time, there is an apparent lack of effective control. After crops have been harvested, the stubbles and stover become available for communal grazing - individuals have not in the past had the right to the exclusive use of their own crop residues. 2.43 Regarding possible changes in the allocation of grazing land many Basotho express their enthusiasm for the development of Grazing Associations. The association of livestock owners in order to practice better animal husban- dry is commendable, but any formal allocation of exclusive grazing rights, which is probably essential, must be seen as part of a new and fairer approach to the general use of grazing land than exists at the present time. Unless there is payment for the use of land, or some comparable system of sharing its rewards, any allocation of exclusive rights to the former communally used land will be bitterly resented by others. 2.44 If the country's grasslands can be restored, it will be possible to carry the present livestock numbers comfortably, and if there is provision of some supplementary feeding for certain classes of stock during critical periods, productivity of meat, wool, and mohair could be increased by 30-40%. 2.45 The most important factor in revitalizing the livestock industry, therefore, is the management and organization of the grasslands; this is a social as well as a technical problem. Between a quarter and a third of the grassland of the country requires rehabilitation by resting. In order not to exacerbate the situation elsewhere while this rehabilitation process is being undertaken, livestock numbers should be reduced. Without destocking on a national scale, the transfer of animals to the remaining areas must jeopar- dize these areas. Some areas will recover in two to three years, others will require five to seven years, or even longer. 2.46 While the imposition of a well designed tax would help to limit unproductive stock, the main discipline for controlling stock numbers would have to come from other incentives. In the case of grazing associations the discipline would come from the incentives that an exclusive long-term - 15 - lease offers an association to maintain its grazing land's productivity. In the case of communal grazing, there is no self interest to appeal to, only the community's willingness to obey rules. 2.47 Breed improvement has failed to achieve the results which could have reasonably been expected. The emphasis on merino wool sheep, angora goat, brown swiss cattle and, recently, a dairy breed, the Friesian has been correct. However in spite of the distribution during a 40 year period of improved breeding stock, the herd and flocks fail to reflect the improve- ments which were sought. This disappointing failure must be attributed to the preference of owners for other types and breeds, the inability of owners of small numbers of livestock to acquire improved males, and the inability to prevent mating with poor animals from other herds and flocks. From 1927 in the case of sheep and from 1955 in the case of goats, on-the-spot castration of rams and bucks of poor conformation was undertaken and, although the criteria used were crude, this resulted in a significant improvement in the national flocks; the discontinuation in 1958 of this practice coincided with a rapid decline in the conformation of the flocks and in an increased pro- portion of the poorer grades of wool. This genetic deterioration in the flocks probably resulted more from the selective effects of deteriorating nutrition; but discontinuation of the castration program was also a factor. 2.48 Intensive animal production can be developed rapidly if producers use imported foodstuffs. These are expensive, however, and their use requires good management. Except for poultry and dairying, past experience with high energy, high protein feeding of animals has been disappointing. The most reliable long term prospects for livestock production are 'off-the-grass', primarily from the better management of the natural grasslands but also from sown pastures and fodder crops. 2.49 Small amounts of baled grass and lucerne hay are produced within Lesotho by individual farmers and by Farmer's Associations and all farms in the lowlands and foothills should be encouraged to establish pastures or fodder crops sufficient to meet the needs of work animals and dairy cows. This is good advice - as long as the recent practice of protecting sown fodders from communal grazing becomes the rule. 2.50 Clearly, any attempt to go beyond some obvious practices like castration, culling, supplementary feeding, and haymaking depends on prior, far-reaching reforms to livestock and rangeland management. D. Soil Conservation 2.51 Soil erosion is rife in Lesotho. Some portion of this is natural in such a mountain and foothill environment. A further portion is inevitable under the pressure of commercial exploitation of what are admittedly fragile soils. But most of Lesotho's soil erosion is avoidable, and the conservation struggle against this will be lost unless control efforts are intensified. - 16 - 2.52 In the lowlands, where the soil erosion is most severe, some 170,000 ha of cultivated land consist of the notoriously erodible 'duplex' soils. These are alfisols which have a sharp differentiation between the uppermost layer (A horizon), normally a brownish sandy loam, and the next layer down (B horizon) consisting of clay with severely restricted permeability. They are poor in quality and unstable, drying out quickly under drought conditions but quickly becoming waterlogged during the rainy season. 2.53 Under conditions of heavy rainfall, runoff water from adjacent defoliated hills tends to percolate to the impermeable B horizon where it flows down the incline, lubricating the interface between the two horizons. Over time this undermines the A horizon and causes slippage along the inter- face. The two horizons then virtually break apart, and catastrophic erosion ensues. The landscape tends to be bitten away in large chunks by 'badlands' type gully erosion which is clearly in evidence over widespread areas of the lowlands, particularly in the south. 2.54 Rill erosion is widely in evidence. This is serious because rills are particularly good indicators that active soil movement is taking place and that it relates to current causes rather than to the past. Rills may be so small that they are obliterated by cattle trampling and cultivation - yet, in the process, the soil profile is gradually truncated. Following obliteration, a new set of rills is formed and these, in turn, are obliterated. The process is unspectacular but moves a lot of soil in a short time and much of what is loosely referred to as "sheet" erosion actually involves soil movement through the process of rilling. The extensive sheet and rill erosion, which are indicative of an active, ongoing erosional process constitute an even more serious short-term threat than the dongas (gullies) as they are more insidious and less easily detected. 2.55 There are several avoidable, man-induced causes of this erosion: (a) overstocking and resultant overgrazing; (b) unsound and inadequately con- trolled farming practices; and (c) poor maintenance of physical conservation works. Of these, overgrazing resulting from overstocking is seen as the main contributory cause of the severe erosion taking place in grazing areas and on cropland. The grasses are being cropped and trampled with such regu- larity by livestock that - on the poorer, shallower soils - they are not getting a chance to regenerate or form a sward to counteract raindrop impact. This results in the surface soil becoming exposed and compacted, with a re- duced infiltration rate and resistance to sheet flow, so that runoff increases in amount and rapidity and rill and gully erosion follow. 2.56 All three causes are exacerbating and tending to extend the already spectacular donga formation although this, from a study of old and new air photo cover, luckily appears to be in a state of relative equilibrium at the present time. This situation however, can only be considered a temporary respite as any sudden new extreme between consecutive climatic seasons could easily trigger off a new phase of severe donga activity. 2.57 Our ready identification of these causes suggests obvious remedies: Lesotho should reduce stock numbers, improve farming practices, and maintain - 17 - existing conservation works. These remedies would be correct, but to better understand the future strategies for conservation, it is worthwhile reviewing first the remedies for erosion in general. 2.58 The available remedies or conservation measures fall into two classes: "biological" and "structural." Biological methods of soil conservation cover those farming practices which use the protection afforded by vegetation to prevent erosion. They also include the steps which can be taken by farmers to build up good soil structure and fertility so that it resists erosion. High standards of agricultural practices are therefore an essential part of soil conservation. In most instances, the best soil cover crop is permanent pasture properly managed to incorporate rotational grazing, adequate rest periods, and sensible stocking rates. 2.59 Physical, mechanical or structural measures as they are variously called are those conservation measures which call for the construction of stormwater drains, terraces, artifical waterways, dams and similar works. They mainly apply to arable land, though terracing can sometimes be required on the more steeply sloping pastures. They are usually designed to dispose of surplus storm water gently whilst simultaneously assisting infiltration. But they are only supplementary to biological methods of conservation, and are not effective substitutes. 2.60 Several attempts have been made in the past to reduce livestock numbers. None was successful for the reasons outlined in the Livestock Section. Other conservation efforts can be divided into three phases: In the mid 1930s, the British Colonial Administration, recognizing the magnitude of the soil erosion problem, embarked on Phase I: a nation-wide effort to protect Lesotho's cropland on the basis of narrow-based channel terracing systems and auxiliary soil conservation measures predominantly in the form of intermediately-positioned grass buffer strips. By and large the main objectives of this initial program were met, but over the course of time this terracing system fell into disrepair owing to lack of maintenance and to structural failures due to design errors. 2.61 After World War II lack of such maintenance had emerged as a major constraint which prompted the Lesotho Government to concentrate primarily on pilot projects which laid the major emphasis on donga control and conservation education. This phase, however, seemingly proved less effective in meeting program objectives than Phase 1 had been. 2.62 In the late 1960s, after Independence, it became apparent to the Lesotho Government that these early conservation systems had been ineffective because no real effort had been made to relate the physical, structural components of the programs to effective conservation farming practices. This realization led to Phase III of the soil conservation program based on donor agency funding for conservation components of projects aimed at modernizing the agricultural sector. (Thaba Bosiu, Senqu, Leribe/Khomokhoana, and Thaba/Tseka Projects). Although these projects had other components designed to increase vegetative protection directly, their designated conservation components laid, if anything, even more emphasis on structural measures than before, which is also more or less the present state of affairs. - 18 - 2.63 Unhappily, the overall effectiveness of these earlier projects has not lived up to expectations. A particularly depressing feature of their soil conservation efforts has been the high cost of installing and maintaining structural works, which cannot yet be related to corresponding savings of output losses. 2.64 By and large, as a result of the British Colonial Administration's soil conservation campaign of the mid 1930s, the majority of Lesotho's farmers are oriented towards contour cultivation - but they practice it with laxity. It is, nevertheless, at least a step) in the right direction as, on the more gentle slopes, this simple conservation treatment alone, if properly pursued, can save up to 50% of normal soil losses. Unfortunately, however, many farmers pursue other, extremely deleterious, practices - one of these being streambank cultivation using inversion ploughing carrying their ridging system right up to the edge of the banks so that they spill directly into the watercourse with no protective grass buffer strip. This causes breaking down of the banks, streambank gullying and increased silt load in the rivers. E. Ministry of Agriculture 2.65 For a country of Lesotho's size and considering the value of its agricultural output, the Ministry of Agriculture is a large organization. Salaried staff positions for 1979/80 totalled some 2,800 of which 2,050 were filled. Staff positions on wages totalled some 1,530. Technical assistance from expatriate experts has been substantial, averaging about 60 man years per annum for the last three years. The Ministry's recurrent budget estimate for 1979/80 is about R10.0 million, or 15% of the value of total sector output. Foreign official aid is partly responsible for the Ministry-s size, which reflects the imperative of servicing numerous visiting missions from bilateral and international donor agencies. 2.66 The Ministry is divided operationally into 12 Divisions: Adminis- tration, Livestock, Range Management , Crops and Pasture, Conservation, Exten- sion and Development, BASP, Economics and Marketing, Research, Lesotho Agricultural College, Thaba Tseka Project, and Technical Operations Unit (Chart 1). A further division, Cooperatives, was recently transferred to the Rural Development Ministry. Aspects of the Ministry's work that have not been adequately discussed in the foregoing are research, extension, and training. 2.67 Past research has been poorly coordinated and has produced little of concrete value to assist farmers. Two broad lines of research appear to be needed. The first involves a closer study of those farmers who have evolved systems which produce consistently better results than their neighbors. What requires further analysis in this case is the relative importance of each of the individual components in their farming systems so that a range of Ipackages- can be devised to meet the needs of families that have a range of resource bases. The second involves the possibility of replacing some of the - 19 - area now dedicated to maize and sorghum with crops that are better adapted to the ecological conditions of Lesotho. Climatic analogs and past experience of 'back garden' production would indicate that orchard crops (both fruit and nuts), vines, and intensive fodder crops deserve detailed study. 2.68 At the time of the field mission for this Review, the extension service was organized along specialist divisional lines with field staff in each district concentrating upon a particular aspect of production. On administrative matters, the staff reported to the District Agricultural Coordinator. On technical matters they reported to their divisional heads at regional or central level (Chart 1). Since that time, the Ministry has decided to reorganize its extension personnel into an Extension and Information Services Division that will have full line authority over all extension activities in the field (Chart 2). This will help the Ministry deliver a consolidated technical message to farmers, and it will also allow more effec- tive use of trained staff. 2.69 Extension staff still face, however, two major sets of problems. The first stems from the nature of Lesotho's rural community which is dominated by households headed by women for whom their fields provide a minor part of family income. Innovative decisions often require the sanction of the absent husband. Households often lack the human and animal draft resources to adopt extension advice. Many are not fully committed to farming because of the marginal role that it plays in overall family finance. In the case of the small group of successful farmers that have already developed their own Ipackages', it is not easy for extension staff to offer them additional advice or to use this group of farmers' experience in advising others. 2.70 The second problem stems from a lack of proven, managerially feasible and economically attractive advice to be offered to farmers. In such a situation there is a lack of incentive to develop disciplined extension work programs and clear cut patterns of supervision. The newly issued Cropping Guidelines have resolved the past problems of conflicting technical recommenda- tions, but the Guidelines have yet to be proven by farmers as a profitable message for the extension service to carry. The majority of farmers may not find them acceptable. The fertilizer recommendations, for example, are only appropriate in combination with optimum cultural practices that are not yet attainable under field growing conditions. Better structural organization in the absence of any viable message will do little to improve the situation. 2.71 The Ministry is responsible for the formal training of men and women for staff posts and for non-formal training of the farming community. The Lesotho Agricultural College (LAC) prŽivides a number of two-year training programs leading to certificates in Agriculture, Agricultural Engineering, and Rural Domestic Economy, and to a Diploma in Agriculture. In 1978, the Farmers Training Center at Leribe was modified under BASP to provide additional places for Agricultural Certificate training. Starting in 1981, LAC will offer one-year courses in forestry and animal health. There is currently no graduate level training in Lesotho, and all students have to go elsewhere. - 20 - F. Commercial Services and Marketing 2.72 The marketing of crops, livestock, and their products, the supply of agricultural inputs, and the supply of agricultural credit rested until recent times largely in the hands of private traders, Coop Lesotho (a govern- ment-owned trading company) and, in the case of credit, commerical banks. This situation changed with the establishment by government of several para- statals: the Produce Marketing Corporation (PMC) in 1973, the Livestock Marketing Corporation (LMC) in 1973, and the Lesotho Agricultural Development Bank (LADB) in 1976. 2.73 With the aid of price fixing powers and monopoly control over the marketing of beans, peas, and wheat, PMC soon became the principal market- ing channel for crop produce, which it purchased through a network of licensed traders. In the case of maize, PMC offered producers the equivalent of export parity prices instead of the import parity prices previously offered by private traders. Since PMC's offers were 20-30% below what producers were accustomed to, they understandably diverted their surplus output away from official channels. Hence, the main impact of PMC on maize marketing has been to force sales into the informal sector, and to terminate, incidentally, the traditional maize storage services of private traders. 2.74 Sorghum marketings also moved into informal trade channels, and private marketings of wheat soon fell to about one-tenth of their pre-1974 level. PMC's purchases of beans began with over 4,000 tons in its maiden year, 1975-76, and thereafter declined each year until they reached only 300 tons in 1978-79; the decline resulted from PMC's lack of financial resources, its high operating costs, and delays and confusion in gazetting prices. 2.75 Late in 1978 the Government decided to discontinue PMC as a parastatal organization. It has lingered on, however, pending a final decision on how to continue its several functions. 2.76 Government established the LMC in 1973 to enforce quality standards in marketing and processing activities associated with livestock, to explore new marketing opportunities, and to formulate pricing policies. LMC attempted in 1976 to market producers' wool and mohair without channeling them through the South African Boards. These initiatives proved unsuccessful and were accompanied by delays and reduced payments to producers. It also tried, unsuccessfully, to propagate auction marketing of livestock. The Corporation has been inactive for about two years pending passage of legislation to dissolve it. 2.77 These traumatic experiences with official marketing 'interventions offer important lessons for future marketing policies: the need for pricing policy to conform with prices ruling across the border; the high cost of monopolizing a marketing network when increasing on-farm subsistence demand and decreasing cropped area are reducing marketable surpluses; and the need to enlist the service of existing loDW-CoSt, private and other marketing channels, particularly at the village ends of the marketing system. - 21 - 2.78 Agricultural credit has been difficult to institutionalize in Lesotho because of the usual problems of obtaining collateral under a traditional land tenure system. Commercial banks provided most of the credit, but mainly to customers who had urban collateral. Cooperatives and area-based projects have provided the balance of what has been, overall, a small credit demand. 2.79 The Lesotho Agricultural Development Bank was established by legislation in 1976 and began limited operations in 1979. It plans to lend where possible through farmers groups to reduce overhead costs per loan. The BASP Credit Unit, which also begins operating during 1980, will eventually be taken over by LADB. III. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 3.01 Planning for the future of agriculture in Lesotho cannot be divorced from the employment situation in South Africa. As long as remittances provide the greater part of household income for large numbers of Basotho there will be a continuing lack of commitment to low return, high risk crop production, and the sector will continue in its present pattern of a three tier system (para 2.11). 3.02. Developments in the migrant employment market suggest the likelihood, however, that an ever-expanding population will become increasingly dependent upon locally generated incomes, albeit at lower returns to labor than obtain at present. Providing wages fall, or do not keep pace with wages in RSA, there would be an increasing interest in labor intensive cropping and livestock systems. Government is therefore faced with the challenge of developing appropriate strategies for the present and planning for a quite different situation in the future. 3.03 The sector-s present problems are poor utilization and protection of arable land, declining livestock and rangeland productivity, increased destitution of the poorest groups, and difficulties of employing effectively the female labor force. The sector's projected problems in the future are the challenge of absorbing more employment and the likely inadequacy of doing so through growing Lesotho's comparatively low-valued traditional crops. A transcending problem overall is how to obtain solutions to the above through the Ministry of Agriculture. 3.04 The suggested strategy for dealing with these problems is to: (a) assist responsive farmers and responsive livestock owners to increase production; (b) find ways to help the poorest groups; (c) facilitate a greater involvement of women in rural enterprises; (d) undertake investigations in support of future intensive crop and livestock production systems and rangeland monitoring; (e) foster more cost-effective means of soil conservation; - 22 - (f) build on the Basic Agricultural Services Program to further strengthen the Ministry of Agriculture; and (g) strengthen the planning capability of the Ministry.l/ 3.05 The "responsive farmers" would be those interested in expanding their area of cultivation to absorb land presently in idle fallow. They could be those identified earlier as the "better" farmers (para 2.11(a)) or they could be a cooperative or other association of persons that has the capacity to expand output efficiently. There are several initiatives which would assist such farmers to respond: (a) fostering arrangements whereby they can enter into legal sub-leasing agreements with land holders so that they can apply their management and resources to land on a more secure basis than that which results from the present informal sharecropping arrangements. This would encourage the use of practices and inputs which have more than one or two seasons' impact. It may require early implementation of the Land Act 1979; (b) increased and improved services to farmers, contractors and sharecroppers for the repair and maintenance of their machinery and equipment. One or two of the major farm machinery manufacturers should be invited to assist in these services; (c) improved credit facilities for the purchase or reconditioning of the larger items of equipment; and (d) improved specialized advisory services for the better farmers whose knowledge is often superior to that of the junior field staff. 3.06 The 'responsive livestock owners- would mainly be the owners of large herds/flocks, who form a small proportion of the community. They can be easily identified and reached by extension workers, and they have the resources to purchase improved stock, drugs, and other inputs. The kinds of measures that the Livestock and Rangeland Divisions should foster, parti- cularly among this group, but increasingly among all livestock owners are: (a) castration of male animals of poor conformation; (b) culling of all unproductive animals; (c) production of baled grass and lucerne hay for supplementary feeding to stock, especially work animals. The first two of these measures would require great political courage to implement directly. Unfortunately, other major initiatives in animal husbandry and genetic improvement require assurances of adequate range feed resources and therefore reasonable stocking rates and a rangeland recovery plan. 1/ Government is pursuing this objective through its new Agricultural Planning Project. - 23 - Such measures as these would require even greater political leadership. The various means for achieving progress on this front are discussed below in Part IV. 3.07 While such assistance to the better farmers and larger livestock owners as described above may help to increase national production it will, in the first instance, affect a comparatively small number of people. At the other end of the farming spectrum is a much larger group of less privileged people, representing some 20-25% of the resident population, who present the government with a major challenge. These, the poorest people, do not possess a surplus of managerial ability and resources awaiting idle land in which to invest, but may hold land which they are incapable of fully utilizing. 3.08 Specific action to help the poorest households should command a high level of priority. At the agricultural level, three broad lines of action are possible: (a) increasing the productivity of their main fields through more timely cultivation, planting and weeding. This could result from the more efficient services (above) to contractors and sharecroppers; (b) improving the diet of this group which cannot afford to purchase non-basic foods. This would take the form of intensive help with 'backyard development', including improved vegetable, fruit and minor livestock production, for home consumption; (c) identifying, through investigation, potential intensive cash crops, which can also be grown in home gardens to increase family cash income. The provision of seeds, plants, trees, inputs and appropriate technical advice aimed at improving the quality of backyard production would be likely components of any direct assistance. The investigations required are among those discussed below (para. 3.14). 3.09 In addition, it may also be possible to support and stimulate simple processing activities. Commendable progress has been achieved in mohair spinning and rug-making. These and other cottage industries like fruit drying deserve strong endorsement. This type of project calls for imaginative localized initiatives which are best suited to bilateral or voluntary agency funding. The poor would also benefit, though not exclusively, from setting up a village development fund that would respond to the local priorities for infrastructure. 3.10 The strategies just presented involve helping both the more successful farmers and the poorest, but without addressing the question of distribution of land rights. The current underutilization of arable land in Lesotho, especially by those allottees who enjoy remittance incomes, weakens the short-run arguments for a more equitable arable land distribution. The first priority would seem to be that of transferring the use of arable land (as distinct from its ownership) into more productive hands. This condition of underutilization does not describe, however, the circumstances - 24 - of grazing land, which is also being exploited in a far less equitable manner. Quite strong measures in favor of a more equitable use of grazing land would seem to be justified and are outlined below in Part IV. 3.11 A useful initiative in support of all arable farming would be to encourage more rapid development of Lesotho's woodlot program. A major reason why arable soils are depleted, yet offer sub-optimum responses to fertilizer, is that animal (mainly cattle) manures are collected and used for fuel. Partly for this reason, cropland soils are seriously deficient in organic matter which plays such an important role in making nutrient elements more readily available to plants. 3.12 Women will play an important role in any production and poverty focussed strategy. Because of the doubts cast on the appropriateness of concentrating on soil conservation structures, which employ large numbers of women under food-for-work and other programs, alternative types of employment may be required. The women should be consulted with a view to channelling this food and funds to other types of development in which women are interested. They would probably identify commodities and services needed for village living - village improvement packages - which could be supplied locally. Good opportunities exist to meet high demands for fuel, through the planting of woodlots, and for village water supplies. The Women's Bureau should be supported with training, technical assistance, and equipment: training for its own staff and for training women through BEDCO in elementary manual skills such as carpentry and plumbing and in community organization; technical assistance for training program development; and simple tools and transport for its outreach program. 3.13 There is also the question of how to improve the productivity of land farmed by the many migrants households headed by women which, be- cause of the absence of males, cannot take full advantage of the many services that are available. The returns to women's efforts are obviously constrained by uncertain financing, and ways of overcoming this are needed. 3.14 Investigations are needed to find high value, alternative cropping systems. Five major groups of crops could be considered for possible development. (a) tree crops, both fruit and nut, and possibly fuelwood; (b) bush crops (e.g. soft fruits); (c) perennial herbs for essential oils; (d) vegetable crops; and (e) fodder crops for intensified livestock production. Some crops have already been investigated, e.g. asparagus, lucerne, irrigated vegetables). Others (e.g. apples, peaches, vines) are grown at present but offer potential for substantial improvement through the introduction of better varieties and techniques. Specialized marketing organizations may be necessary to establish new crops, although it is clear that there is a ready market for many fruits and vegetables that are now imported. Investigations should be initiated in the near future to identify potential plant introductions and start work on them. This phase will have to be followed by nursery development. - 25 - Some nursery development to supply improved trees of proven varieties for back garden planting could advantageously be started now, particularly in the south. The introduction of more intensive crops should offer some opportunities for the development of agro-industry (canning, drying, processing) which will increase local employment opportunities. It may also require specialised transport and feeder roads. 3.15 A special unit within the Research Division of the Ministry of Agriculture could usefully be established with the following functions: (a) to study the whole range of feasible crops; (b) to study the long term local and export possibilities for these; (c) to introduce appropriate planting material; (d) to assist with nursery establishment and the development of nursery techniques; (e) to identify the training requirements for the commerical phase of new crop development. 3.16 Similarly, a special unit within the Rangeland Division could usefully be established to initiate a quantified monitoring of range resources employing aerial photography, satellite data, and field sampling. As long as rangeland continues to be public domain, Government should have accurate knowledge of what is happening to the grasslands. Both of these suggested units should provide ideal channels for highly qualified expatriate manpower assistance, linked where necessary to the international research institutions. 3.17 There should be a radical change of emphasis in soil conservation policy away from reliance on structures that are insufficiently supported by other, complementary measures towards more fundamental and cost effective packages. The changes required are radical because they touch on sector-wide issues such as overstocking and rights to crop residues, which are too broad to be confined to conservation policy. Lack of effective policies on these issues in the past has prevented the emergence of a balanced conservation program in Lesotho. 3.18 Basic contour cultivation, combined with simple vegetative and biological measures, would seem to provide the core of a more realistic approach, both in isolation from and in support of structural measures. Regardless of the various systems of terracing or other topographic modi- fications applied in controlling water erosion, the overriding principle of erosion control is the duration and intensity of vegetative cover. The preponderance in Lesotho of low density row cropping, the practice of indif- ferent tillage to maintain tenure rights to arable land, and the constant grazing pressure on all vegetation except food crops simply do not allow an acceptable vegetative cover. 3.19 Increased emphasis on biological methods of soil erosion control based on the use of vegetative cover may require more land to be cropped with limited tillage, or taken out of cultivation and put down to pasture, and more controlled herding and grazing of livestock. It may also be necessary to develop cropping systems that increase water absorption on arable land both to cope with dry spells and to reduce erosion. - 26 - 3.20 Over the next five years the major continuing concern will be the strengthening of the Ministry of Agriculture's management and its capacity to fulfill the basic responsibilit:ies of extension, research, planning and training. In addition there will be the ongoing task of developing low cost and efficient delivery systems for essential agricultural inputs, which in future will be the joint concern of the Ministries of Agriculture and Rural Development. The BASP is the most appropriate vehicle with which to support these needs. 3.21 The urgent need for BASP is for its function as an institution building program to be fully accepted and understood both by donors and the Ministry of Agriculture, for its staff to be integrated into the Ministry, for low cost supply and marketing agents to be identified and mobilized, and for more accurate information on which to base an appropriate range of advice to farmers. The Ministry has already had to cope with several emerging problems: (a) its extension services needed a more clearly defined message for farmers and an increased allocation of field level manpower. The Ministry has responded with new cropping guidelines and a reorganization of its extension services. These initiatives will take time to implement fully, including time to adapt them, under working conditions, to farmers- real needs (para. 2.70). (b) the input supplies system needed reviewing to avoid an over- specialized delivery system, to eliminate current duplication of Government-sponsored stores, and to rationalize the variety and specifications of fertilizers distributed; Government has responded with positive plans to rehabilitate the delivery system to make it more cost effective. (c) credit is not a major constraint to agricultural development in much of Lesotho. As an aid to increasing output it is probably most justified for those proven contractors and sharecroppers who want to rapidly expand their operations and whose impact spreads well beyond their own landholdings. Any steps taken to support these operations should include contingencies for credit. The BASP credit program recently became operational; (d) marketing of those crops now commonly grown is unlikely to expand in the near future, unless measures such as those recommended herein are successful in expanding the area cultivated. In view of the uncertainties involved, the marketing system should not become too specialized, and Government should try to restrict its direct involvement to the key policy and regulatory areas; 1/ (e) Government tractor services should be confined to critical needs not met by the private sector. 1/ As part of its Agricultural Marketing and Credit Project proposals to IFAD, Government intends that the cooperative movement should assume responsibility eventually for the commercial aspects of PMC's and Coop Lesotho's operations. - 27 - Continued staff attrition in the Ministry of Agriculture presents a serious challenge to future Ministry effectiveness, requiring corrective measures in personnel management. This is increasingly a priority area for BASP attention. 3.22 Finally, attention is drawn to the currently limited scope for implementing fiscal and pricing measures to encourage a shift of resources into the sector. Pricing interventions in the past have distorted crop marketings (paras 2.73-2.74) and have proven difficult to sustain with Govern- ment's meagre funds. Taxation of migrant remittances has not been undertaken, but it has been proposed in the past as a means both of raising revenue and of changing relative effective wages. If proposed solely for this latter purpose - of encouraging a repatriation of labor to the sector - it faces two difficul- ties: one is the prohibitive size of the tax that would be required to alter appreciably the relative rewards from foreign mine labor compared to domestic agricultural labor; the other is the limited capacity of the sector to absorb labor in its current range of enterprises with the technical packages that are now available. These difficulties illustrate how important it is for Govern- ment to take up the recommended investigations into higher-value, labor- intensive crops (paras 3.14-3.15). IV. POLICY ISSUES 4.01 Previous chapters have identified a large number of constraints inhibiting Lesotho's agricultural development and have proposed broad stra- tegies for overcoming some of them. 4.02 Not all the constraints can be overcome. Lesotho's difficult environ- ment for growing its traditional field crops is a major constraint that, in most respects, cannot be altered. Certain other constraints are not readily within the power of Government to resolve. For instance, the most decisive factor influencing the sector is the level of remuneration and volume of employment available to Basotho migrants in the Republic of South Africa. For as long as these opportunities exist and continue to be largely beyond Government's control, agriculture will continue to suffer the consequences of being a poor alternative form of employment and subsistence for most Basotho. It would be insensitive for Lesotho (and its friends) to ignore this. 4.03 Other constraints can be overcome or modified. Chapter III outlined some broad strategies for dealing with a selected number of these. 4.04 Why offer a development strategy in Chapter III before addressing the policy issues here in Chapter IV? Because it is risky and even presumptuous for this document to offer a comprehensive development strategy. Because it cannot unilaterally resolve the policy issues. It can do little more than explore them. So the discussion of development strategy was placed ahead of the discussion of policy issues which, in many respects, provides an equally important focus for this document. 4.05 Chapter III offered opinions on the main directions in which the agricultural economy should be steered. But it has serious gaps. For instance,, it scarcely touches the potential of the livestock industry. The reason is simple. Without some effective mechanism for controlling livestock numbers, it is premature for Lesotho to think of anything but third-best, peripheral - 28 - investment in this industry. Lack of such control means also that some of the proposals in Chapter III for other activities, for example conservation, are suspect a priori. To be effective, they too require something to be done about excessive livestock numbers and about livestock owners traditional usufruct rights to post-harvest arable land. Yet Government does not appear to have any clear plans for dealing with this problem. It has taken some initiatives, such as its recently approved Land Conservation and Range Development Project but solutions will require major political support. 4.o6 The problem of overstocking affects so many other aspects of agri- cultural production that it needs to be discussed first, along with several related issues such as land tenure. The other major policy issues that require discussion are the following: foodgrain self-sufficiency, organization of production, the focus of soil conservation, the organization of agricultural marketing, target groups for extension, and employment opportunities for women. Livestock Numbers 4.07 There is no point in repeating the reasons that make this an issue, except to point out how so many other development problems have their origin in this one and to expand on how the various benefits of control of overstock- ing would be mutually reinforcing. 4.08 Within the livestock subsector, many management and investment proposals, whose merit would hardly be questioned in other circumstances, are questionable, risky, or controversial in a situation where the grazing resource is already shared by too many animals. Proposals to breed or import grade animals for distribution under current communal grazing conditions are a good example of this, because grade animals generally do not warrant their extra cost if not provided with a high plane of nutrition. Unless there is evidence that special purpose breeds (e.g. fine wool grade sheep) outperform non-descript animals under such adverse conditions, importing grade ruminants appears to be simply a more costly way of overstocking. Even general manage- ment practices like culling and castration, whose benefits under communal range conditions seem well justified and extend beyond the individual owner, would certainly not reap their full potential under these conditions. Manage- ment practices that benefit the owner only, such as increasing calving, kidding, and lambing rates and weaning ratios, themselves usually contingent on good nutrition, may make sense for the individual but not for owners in general because the grazing resource eventually comes under even greater pressure. 4.09 If we look beyond the livestock industry, the effects of over- stocking and grazing practices in arable areas appear equally troublesome: for example, consider their consequences for investments in soil conservation and cropping. As long as overstocking/overgrazing remains the major cause of soil erosion, it is difficult to expect investments in conservation structures to buy more than a little time, or for biological conservation measures to do any better. If other peoples livestock consume the farmer-s field crop residues and fallow grazing, he has that much less opportunity or incentive to adopt the many (cheap) cultural practices that might raise his yields or to risk expensive investments for this purpose. 4.10 Can Government reduce herds and flocks by decree? Probably not. An indication of government inadequacies for this kind of task is its failure to maintain much simpler interventions in the livestock industry, such as - 29 - compulsory castration of unsuitable rams and bucks to maintain wool and mohair quality. The communal benefits of controlled breeding in communally-run livestock ought to be more obvious and acceptable to livestock owners than the communal benefits of lowering stocking rates. Yet, MOA technicians claim that even this limited intervention would be difficult, if not impossible, to implement. Culling of unsuitable animals and implementation of proposed grazing regulations will soon test the public will on this issue. 4.11 While Government may yet gain some acceptable measure of control via such direct regulations, the Land Act (1979) is likely to be the only practical instrument for accomplishing the range of reforms that are needed. This conclusion was reached reluctantly, because of the considerable other changes that land reform will bring to Basotho society. 4.12 For instance, the Act provides Government (the Land Committees) with the power to control crop residue use at its discretion. Although compliance with any new policy stressing crop growers- rights would require acceptance by livestock owners and perhaps the introduction of fees for grazing rights, this would probably be the easiest policy reform to introduce. 4.13 To lower stocking rates, the community interest involved needs to be awakened beforehand by cultivating a much stronger sense of community, or by reconciling individual and communal interests. This requires not only smaller, more manageable community units, but well-defined rights to the land under a unit's control. 4.14 Grazing associations reduce the scale of communal grazing in Lesotho to defined, much smaller pieces of land and to defined, much smaller numbers of participants. The whole idea is to obtain agreememt among a manageable number of participants to act in their joint self-interest. Formation of grazing associations in the past has been on a small scale, and the amount of land "alienated" from broader communal use has been miniscule. Although the granting of grazing rights to such associations has upset some people in their immediate neighborhood, their scope has not yet threatened the open-range communal grazing system itself. This could change. 4.15 The Land Act 1979 permits the granting of long-term leases to arable and pastoral land. Because grazing land has never before been allotted to individuals, as has arable land, it may prove easier in fact to declare pastoral areas to be Selected Agricultural Areas and to establish ranches/ grazing leases for both grazing associations and individual lessees. 4.16 Before too many more grazing associations are formed and before other types of leasing occur, however, whether under the 1979 Act or under earlier authority, thrught should be given to sketching out the long-term consequences of these changes for livestock owners and non-owners. Although pastoral land has long been held in trust for the Basotho people, only those with access to livestock have enjoyed its benefits. As argued in Part II, taxation of communal grazing and, where applicable, adequate leasehold rents for range leases should be considered as part of the tenure reforms. The main purpose of such taxation (or user charge) would be to offset the costs of providing public serveces to livestock owners, to offset the gifts of grazing land product bestowed on Basotho who are fortunate enough to own livestock, and to raise public revenue. - 30 - 4.17 Another relevant initiat:ive of Government that could support the effect of tenure reforms on livestock management is its recent decision to strengthen "village-based management of resources," in this case with the assistance of a stronger cooperative movement. This has the potential to provide one of the means of organiziLng grazing associations or other, similar units to exercise greater control over village grazing lands. The potential for this is apparent in the lowlands, but more controversial perhaps in the mountain regions which have long provided free grazing to lowland livestock. It is also necessary to recognize the long lead time that would be necessary (10 years or more) before cooperatives could become a vital force. 4.18 Institutional reforms seem to offer the only real hope of achieving more desirable stocking rates (para 4.11), because they would help to create proper incentives among livestock owners. Other measures that would be supportive are: to put the new abbatoir onto a second shift as soon as possible if supplies of slaughter stock are forthcoming; and to increase and, if necessary, subsidize the yield on migrants' deposits in banks. More draconian policy measures are probably beyond Government's ability to enforce or are politically unacceptable. Among them are: a campaign by Government to identify and cull undesirable or unproductive ruminant livestock (linked perhaps to domestic nutrition programs); an educational and propaganda campaign to devalue the practice of hoarding cattle to observe bride price conventions; heavy taxation of ruminant livestock; and severely limiting livestock imports. Agricultural Self-Sufficiency 4.19 The development strategy in Chapter III reflects judgements that production of foodgrains does not represent the sector s comparative advantage, cannot support a large increase in employment, and cannot offer sufficient income to the poorest groups that have little land resources. For these reasons the preferred strategy is for the sector to diversify its products and to begin this process by exploring the production and market prospects for several types of perennial crops, vegetables, and fodder crops. If the advocated research and investigation priorities prove successful and the necessary tenurial reforms to support these types of crops are implemented, the strategy would result in greater specialization of production in Lesotho and less chance of achieving self sufficiency in basic food grains. Even if the latter objective were achieved despite diversion of land into new crops, pursuit of comparative advantage in production necessarily connotes trade, and increased trade in this case will promote further the mutual but, of course, lopsided interdependency between Lesotho and RSA. This would appear to run contrary to various Government policy pronouncements that, in the past, have signalled a wish for a greater degrees of independence for the Lesotho economy. 4.20 This is a complex policy question. Because of interlinkages between agriculture and its supplying industries, most of which are presently located in RSA, self-sufficiency in basic food production -- attainable no doubt only through more fertilizers and other modern inputs -- would probably increase Lesotho-s dependency for its food supply on the Republic-s supply of fertilizers, fuels, and other inputs and transport services. 4.21 Another important aspect of the self-sufficiency question also is how long Lesotho's arable soils can sustain its grain crop/fallow system of land use. The section on conservation in Chapter II argued in favor of - 31- taking out of grain production the more erosion-prone soils and protecting them with crops that offer more dense or continuous vegetative cover. Most likely, this biological method of soil conservation would lead in the direc- tion of livestock production, not grain production. This observation has immediate relevance for the question of what to do about the recent decline in cultivation. One cannot discount the possibility that the benefits of the recent decline in cultivation, if this land could have been put down properly to pasture, would outweigh its costs in lost grain output and lost soil. 4.22 To be convincing, any development strategy that emphasizes food- grain production to the exclusion of diversifying land use must answer these several objections: it probably conflicts with Lesotho's long run comparative advantage, it trades direct dependence on foreign food supplies for direct dependence on foreign agricultural inputs and services; and it probably runs counter to any credible soil conservation strategy. Government's option, if it agrees that most plausible development strategies cannot much reduce Lesotho's heavy dependency on its neighbour is to strive simply for the strongest dependent economy it can muster. Organization of Production 4.23 Part II recommended that Government explore additional measures to invite sharecroppers to extend their area of cultivation. It was argued that sharecroppers might enlarge their operations if they could acquire longer-term "contracts" to cultivate and crop others' land allotments. 4.24 Government has already decided, though, on a strategy of supporting village-based cooperatives as the preferred means of achieving many of its policy objectives, including that of increased cultivation. This will replace the Government's earlier strategy of expanding the cultivated area directly through its CCPP. 4.25 Because the co-operative approach is relatively new and untried and will take a long time to fully develop, it may be prudent to keep other options such as the alternative sharecropper approach mentioned above, in working order. The policy issue facing the Ministries of Agriculture and Cooperatives/Rural Development, therefore, is whether or not to keep their longer-term options open by sponsoring improvements to an old model for increasing the cultivated area, while trying out the new. Focus of Soil Conservation 4.26 Part II argued that soil conservation practice should shift away from concentrating on the structures approach to a more biological approach. This first, primary issue calls for a policy decision by the Conservation Division of the Ministry of Agriculture. 4.27 The next issue that would arise would be how to implement a more biological approach. Moving soil conservation policy towards dealing more with the agronomic and land use husbandry aspects of conservation requires a closer integration of crop, livestock, and conservation extension. - 32 - Fortunately, extension practice in the Ministry, which previously separated extension messages in these fields, is now moving towards unifying them. Hence, it should be possible to amalgamate, or more closely unify, the exten- sion aspects of general farming with those of soil conservation - if not at headquarters level, at least at field level. This will take time to develop and should be assisted under BASP. Organization of Agricultural Marketing 4.28 Government's interventions in agricultural marketing, through PMC and LMC, have been costly ones: costly in terms of disruptions to agricul- tural production, financial losses, and the time spent by Government officials in dealing with the many crises that ensued in the wake of the collapse of these corporations. 4.29 One of the reasons for the failure of PMC was the high overhead cost of attempting to monopolize trade in just a few commodities that, by them- selves, did not justify an extensive distribution or buying network. The lesson, surely, is to take advantage of as many existing, competing channels as possible in seeking a cost-efficient marketing system. 4.30 There are two policy issues. The first is whether Government objectives are properly served by trying to take over services or to grant franchises for such services that, as was the case with PMC, are already carried out with reasonable efficiency by the private sector. The second is whether there is much scope for Government to intervene effectively in such matters as price, which is a traditional reason for marketing interven- tions, when it is extremely difficult to prevent leakages across the border, where prices are anyway relatively stable. Large scale interventions in agricultural marketing would seem to be a low-priority enterprise for Government. Target Groups for Extension 4.31 Early in 1980 the Ministry of Agriculture resolved two major issues for its extension services. It reorganized the services to integrate their extension messages to farmers, and it reviewed its cropping guidelines to remove conflicting recommendations on fertilizer and cultural practices. 4.32 There remains the issue of deciding on what group(s) should be the target of scarce extension resources. The poor have been mentioned as priority candidates for assistance, as have also the "better" or "respon- sive" farmers and graziers. The Ministry of Agriculture recognizes that some differentiation of audience is warranted as part of its exten- sion strategy and that this would affect the required extension messages. - 33 - Employment Opportunities for Women 4.33 Any retreat from the past structures approach to soil conservation would mean a corresponding reduction in employment opportunities, mainly for women, under the food-for-work program. The problem is to find alter- native work opportunities in the short and longer-run. 4.34 For the short-run, the Ministry of Rural Development has the choice of switching resources into other activities such as rural road construction. For the longer-run, the Ministry has the choice of aligning its program even more with the priorities for development as perceived by women. These priorities would most likely involve improvements to village living, such as improved fuel and water supplies and would require identification and preparation of an investment program that also features wide-scale female employment opportunities. LESOTHO MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE Organization Chart (1979) of Proeo oe n i o occ Melatiuslm i orkets roft sIhot ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~JTH