WORLD BANK

June 29, 2012
Sahel Drought Situation Report No. 7
Burkina Faso, Chad, Mauritania, Mali, Niger 71583
AT A GLANCE – MALI FOCUS
 The coup situation in the South is still
precarious. Interim president,
Dioncounda Traore, was recently
attacked and seriously injured by
unknown groups in Bamako.
 More than 167,000 internally displaced
people are facing food insecurity due to
the rebellion in the Northern regions of
Gao, Kidal and Timbuktu. Another
170,000 have fled to neighboring
countries (latest from UNHCR but other
figures vary) and have been registered as
refugees.
 Humanitarian access to the North is
limited although some agencies have
managed to resume operations through
bi-lateral negotiations with the rebel groups. This is similar to what was done during the Horn of Africa
crisis in Somalia. The agencies “do what they can where they can�? using the “Do no harm1�? approach.
 Concern remains that the conflict in Northern Nigeria led by Boko Haram will spill into Mali and Niger as
links exist with Ansar Dine. Reports indicate the differing rebel groups are in disagreement over their
overall goals for the northern region.

Locust Alert
 There are concerns that the locust situation, with spreading swarms from Libya and Algeria, may affect
the Sahel region. Nomadic people in Northern Mali have reported seeing isolated swarms. Most
countries in the region are able to contain any infestation but concern remains for the conflict zones
where access is limited. If the locusts enter certain conflict zones in Mali, Nigeria or Niger with no
containment, then the situation could quickly deteriorate comparable to 2004.

LATEST DROUGHT SITUATION
 Early warning systems and international organizations are reporting varying figures of people affected
by the current drought situation. The most common accepted figures are between 17 and 19 million
people at risk of food insecurity in West Africa’s Sahel region due to a combination of drought, poor
accessibility to food, high grain prices, environmental degradation and displacement due to conflict.
From that number, 1 million children under the age of five are at risk for acute malnutrition, according
to the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF).
 Per country: the drought is affecting the following number of people: Mauritania: 1 million; Niger: 6.4
million; Chad: 3.6 million; Mali: 4.6 million; Burkina Faso: 2.9 million; Senegal: 739,000

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“Do no harm�? approach ensures any humanitarian agency’s input does not further fund nor add assistance which may later be used for
armed conflict. There must be at least a minimal monitoring mechanism before any humanitarian assistance is distributed.
 A joint announcement from the Center for the Prevention of Drought in the Sahel (CILSS), The Famine
Early Warning System (FEWSNET), UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food
Programme (WFP) following the most recent meeting of the Regional Information Group on Food Crisis
Prevention and Management in the Sahel and West Africa (held in Niamey) highlighted the following:

1. Extreme lack of international financing for the agricultural sector (funded at only 20 percent).
The consequence is increased vulnerability to food insecurity and the danger of similar conditions
being repeated during the next rainfall deficit.
2. Continuing high food prices (especially in Burkina Faso)
3. The deterioration of trade in livestock and cereals across the region

 UN OCHA reports that US$864.2 million is required for humanitarian assistance. US$643.3 million has
been raised so far (including consolidated appeals) out of a total requirement of US$1.5 billion. However,
assistance for agriculture is funded at only 20 percent which could have longer-reaching negative effects
on food production2.

Source OCHA FTS 10 June, 2012

 An Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) 2 (stressed)3 phase exists in the Kanem, Barh el
Gazal, Batha (Chad), in the region of Gao (Mali) and the Moughataa of Bassikounou (Mauritania). IPC 3
(crisis) phases exist in the regions of Timbuktu and Kidal (Mali) and the majority of agro-pastoral zones in
Mauritania, Mali, Burkina, Niger and Chad. Elsewhere the situation is characterized by moderate food
insecurity and there are also some places where the food situation is adequate.
 Most regions are not expected to surpass IPC 3 however, a disruption in humanitarian aid (whether from
lack of funding or restricted access in conflict zones) could significantly alter the situation. Areas unable
to be reached, most notably in Mali, could reach IPC 4 (emergency) or higher.
 Due to the conflict in Mali, seasonal migration of pastoralists is being disrupted between Mauritania and
Niger. This situation, combined with the increase in refugees, could create pockets of IPC 4.
 Immediate action is required by all organizations in the region to respond to the crisis. Attention to the
medium and long-term effects of the drought is also recommended.
 The seasonal climate and hydrological forecasts vary for the region. In the Western Sahel, rainfall deficits
are expected while much of the rest of the region is experiencing normal rainfall.
 There is a locust disaster situation unfolding which is now marked by the presence of desert locust
swarms in south-western Libya, groups of adult individuals in south-eastern Algeria and groups in Arlit,
Niger. Regional Governments have warned that the situation could become quite serious.

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This includes Cameroon, Nigeria and Senegal
3
IPC uses a scale of 1-5, 1 is normal, 2 is stress, 3 is crisis, 4 is emergency and 5 is famine

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COUNTRY SITUATION
Burkina Faso:
 The Government of Burkina Faso has estimated that around 2.9 million people are in acute food
insecurity. The Government has provisioned 88,000 tons of emergency food assistance to respond to
the current crisis.
 50,000 tons of grain has already been distributed between April and June as part of the
implementation of the government’s operational plan but it may not be sufficient to cover food needs
between July and September in light of rising grain prices.
 Unexpected surges in grain prices in most markets across the country between February and March
and between March and April are a combination of several factors, including the unusual retention of
stocks by a few large producers and wholesalers who expect more significant and better paying
institutional purchases, in addition to the increase in domestic demand (the north) and external, with
growing demand from wholesalers from Mali.
 The continuing influx of 62,000 refugees from Mali, of which 72 percent are located in the North, is
aggravating food security in this area despite the assistance benefiting refugees. The poor and very
poor in this area remain in a Phase 2 (stressed) level of acute food insecurity.

Chad:
 Currently, 3.6 million people are estimated to be food insecure as a result of the drought. WFP is
conducting a “blanket feeding�? program which will reach 1.2 million people with emergency food
assistance. WFP leads the food security cluster efforts in the region in cooperation with local authorities.
Overall, 37 percent of the entire population is considered undernourished.
 In spite of normal crop development, increased agricultural labor opportunities, and the continuation
of ongoing assistance by the Government and partners, food insecurity in much of the Sahelian area of
Chad will remain at IPC Phase 2 (stressed) levels through September because of low access to food for
very poor households due to high grain prices.
 The central part of the agropastoral zone has reached IPC Phase 3 (crisis) levels of food insecurity that
will persist until the end of June. Conditions will improve in these areas from July to September
because of multiple humanitarian responses on behalf of the Government and other actors. Increased
farm labor opportunities are expected to raise wage labor rates.
 Cereal prices generally rose between March/April and April/May and are higher than the five-year
average due to high demand. Prices will continue to rise as the lean season continues until the next
harvest in September.

Mali:
 4.6 million Malians are said to be at risk of food insecurity due to the combination of drought conditions,
internal displacement and local food shortages.
 The food security situation is rapidly worsening due to the ongoing conflict. The northern regions of
Timbuktu, Gao and Kidal remain under rebel control and the impact of the conflict is heavily stressing
livelihoods, markets and humanitarian assistance in the region.
 An estimated 167,000 people are internally displaced in the North of Mali, while another 170,000 are
seeking refuge in Niger, Burkina Faso, Mauritania and Algeria. The Algerian Government has reported at
least 30,000 asylum seekers have entered the country since March.

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 With no immediate solution for the crisis foreseen, it is expected that market disruptions and limited
access to food by households will continue. Famine Early Warning Network (FEWSNET) is reporting trade
at 20 percent of typical levels and that many weekly markets have closed. 45-65 percent of annual food
needs of households in the North come from purchases at local markets.
 Appropriate and timely support to farmers is urgently needed. The UN Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) reports that nomadic people and pastoralists in the across the Northern regions are
being most affected and that the possibility of a famine situation cannot be excluded.
 In the regions of Mopti, Koulikoro and Kayes, WFP and its partners, have covered a total of 117,800 out
of 233,400 targeted beneficiaries during the first phase of a general food distribution.
 As of 1 June, UNICEF has reached nearly 70,000 beneficiaries with the supplies of Inter-Agency
Emergency Health Kits (IEHK) and Non Food Items (NFI) kits in response to the emergency plus 11,401
cartons of Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food.

Mauritania:
 The National Food Security Commission is listing 1 million people as currently food insecure in the
country and in need of assistance, mostly due to drought.
 FEWSNET reports the beginning of a normal rainy season in June / July will restore some stability in the
purchasing power of households beginning in July, as the beginning of agricultural activities will
provide opportunities for income and pasture improvement.
 Nearly 64,000 Malian refugees are now residing in the M’Bera camp. Currently, the impact of refugees
on the market is not reflected in higher prices or food availability, which are generally stable, as
specific and localized increases observed in February / March are beginning to normalize with the
setting up assistance programs, reducing pressure on the local market. This balance should not shift
unless aid levels are reduced to the extent that refugees are beginning to rely more on markets to
meet their food needs.
 The crisis situation (IPC Phase 3) experienced by poor households in the central and western portion of
the agro-pastoral zone is stabilized by stable (or falling) prices of staple food, the resumption of cross-
border flows, and the establishment of assistance programs that have improved household food
access.
 Despite the drought conditions, the IMF recently reported Mauritania’s economic growth has remained
“sustained�? and resisted a slowdown. This is partly due to the strong performance of mining exports.
Niger:
 6.4 million People are now either in IPC phase 2 (stressed) or 3 (crisis), mostly due to drought.
 Desert locusts are now menacing the north of the country.
 The Southern Tessaoua regions and agro-pastoral areas in the West are most affected. Many families in
these regions have not yet fully recovered from the drought from the two previous years.
 The Northern region of Tillabéry is experiencing a continued influx of refugees from Mali who are in
need of emergency food assistance. The Niger Red Cross is currently handling the situation with support
from the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).

World Bank Response
The World Bank is taking early action in ensuring institutional preparedness to address short term food security
needs and long term drought resilience measures in the Sahel region. The approach keeps a regional perspective
and builds on already existing response mechanisms and operations.

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To assist with monitoring of the evolving drought situation, the World Bank participates in the regional Security
and Nutrition Working Group platform in Dakar, Senegal and follows up on response and coordination efforts
that are being undertaken.
The World Bank Executive Board was briefed on the Mali situation, Horn of Africa and Sahel drought situations
by the Vice President for the Africa Region on Tuesday May 8 and a corresponding press release was issued.

Regional:
 The Fragile States Team, with support from the Nairobi Hub, is leading analytical work on the structural
issues in the Sahel including security development issues around Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
(AQIM), Libya spill-over etc. with the objective of helping the respective country teams shape their
country programs accordingly.
 A partnership with NASA SERVIR, WFP, USAID and ITHACA to share regional data and improve regional
monitoring has begun with the first product being a central data and mapping depository:
http://sahelresponse.org/
 The Comité permanent Inter-Etats de Lutte contre la Sécheresse dans le Sahel (CILSS or Permanent
Inter-State Committee for the Fight Against Drought) would need to be strengthened in its information
sharing and drought monitoring capacities.
 Close cooperation is underway with the European Union and other international partners to coordinate
strategy and response mechanisms, based on each institution’s comparative advantage.

Burkina Faso:
 National capacities to address drought risk are being strengthened through the Global Facility for
Disaster Reduction and recovery (GFDRR) financed national DRM Program.

Chad:
 The Agriculture Production Support Project (PAPA) pipeline project is being reviewed to help improve
food security in the short- to medium term through financing of seed and fertilizer and tools; small-scale
productive infrastructure, including micro-irrigation, processing facilities, storage facilities and support
to the livestock sector.

Mauritania:
 Additional financing will be issued for the second phase of the Integrated Development Program for
Irrigated Agriculture (PDIAIM II) including agricultural development and food crisis response activities.

Mali:
 The World Bank will not approve new development projects or programs until the crisis in Mali is
resolved.

Niger:
 US$15 million in supplemental budget support was provided to the Government to address the fiscal
shortfall caused by the food crisis and the Libyan crisis. In addition, four active investment lending
 Five operations were retrofitted to provide cash transfers, micro-projects and cash-for-work
opportunities to the returnees with a focus on agriculture and irrigation schemes to contribute to the
counter-season agriculture campaign to assist to the food deficit for about 400,000 metric tons of
cereals.
 Continuous guidance and support to the 3N Initiative (Nigeriens Nourish Nigeriens) proved to be very
useful in ensuring that the Government contingency plan is successfully implemented, ensuring that a

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700, 000 metric ton food deficit does not degenerate into famine, thanks to the proactive and concerted
measures taken by the Government and supported by the Developments Partners including the Bank.
 The US$63 million Niger Community Action Project for Climate Resilience includes a US$35 million grant
and a US$28 million concessional loan, with the objective of improving the resilience of the populations
and of production systems to climate change and variability, in order to increase food security in the
project area.
 The US$70 million Safety Net Project was launched in May 2011 is also a well-adapted tool to respond to
the situation.

Disaster Risk Management Team Contact:
Doekle Wielinga, AFR DRM Coordinator, AFTWR, WB Washington DC, AfricaDRM@worldbank.org
Disaster Risk Management Website
Sources: OCHA, WFP, ECHO, FEWS-Net, press releases from various media sources, WB Staff