World Bank Reprint Series: Number 274 Ron Duncan and Ernst Lutz Peneiration of Industrial Country Markets by Agricultural Products from Developing Countries Reprinted with permission from World Development, vol. 11, no. 9 (1983), pp. 771-86. World Bank Reprints No. 238. Richard H. Goldman and Lyn Squire, "Technical Change, Labor Use, and Income Distribution in the Muda Irrigation Project," Economic Development and Cultural Change No. 239. J. Michael Finger, "Trade and the Structure of American Industry," Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science No. 240. David M.G. Newbery and Joseph E. Stiglitz, "Optimal Commodity Stock-piling Rules," Oxford Economic Papers No. 241. Bela Balassa, "Disequilibrium Analysis in Developing Economies: An Overview," World Development No. 242. T.N. Srinivasan, "General Equilibrium Theory, Project Evaluation, and Economic Development," The Theory and Experience of Economic Development No. 243. 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Kemal Dervis, Jaime de Melo, and Sherman Robinson, "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Foreign Exchange Shortages in a Developing Economy," The Economic Journal No. 249. Kyu Sik Lee, "A Model of Intraurban Employment Location: An Application to Bogota, Colombia," Journal of Urban Economics No. 250. J. B. Knight and R. H. Sabot, "From Migrants to Proletarians: Employment Experience, Mobility, and Wages in Tanzania," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics No. 251. M. Louise Fox, "Income Distribution in Post-1964 Brazil: New Results," Journal of Economic History No. 252. Nizar Jetha, "The Welfare Cost of Taxation: Its Meaning and Measure- ment," Bulletini for International Fiscal Documentation No. 253. Larry E. Westphal, "Fostering Technological Mastery by Means of Selective Infant-Industry Protection," Trade, Stability, Technology, and Equity in Latin America No. 254. Gershon Feder, "On Exports and Economic Growth," Journal of Development Economics World Development, Vol. 11, No. 9, pp. 771-786, 1983. 0305-750X/83/$3.00 + 0.00 Printed in Great Britain. © 1983 Pergamon Press Ltd. Penetration of Industrial Country Markets by Agricultural Products from Developing Countries RON DUNCAN and ERNST LUTZ* The World Bank, Washington, D. C. Su-mmary. - About 55% of food and about 60%'o of non-food agricultural exports of the developing countries are sold in industrial country markets. Market access is therefore inmportant. Wnile the developing countries have been able to increase the market penetration of their manufactured exports in industrial countries at a remarkable rate of about 8% in the 1970s, market penetration in agricultural commodities has generally been less successful. From 1970 to 1980 the developing countries were able to increase their market penetra- tion in processed agricultural commodities from 3.5 to 3.7%, which amounts to an average annual increase of only 0.6%. In basic agricultural products like sugar, maize, tomatoes and beef they even incurred losses in their market share that corresponded to an increase in the degree of self-sufficiency (and probably of protective trade barriers) of the industrial countries. in particular the EC. 1. INTRODUCTION to the change in the degree of import pene- tration of these markets by developing countries The industrial countries have been the most that has occurred during the 1 970s, and whether important market for most basic agricultural protectionism may affect the future growth of commodity exports. Of the commodities exports of agricultural products, both basic as listed in Table 1 below, this statement is true well as processed, from the developing countries for all except rice, wheat, jute, cotton and to the industrial country markets. sugar. Trade in rice has always been largely As far as developing country exports to the between the developing countries of South industrial nations and to each other are con- and East Asia. However, the importance of cerned, protectionism is an important factor developing and centrally planned economies on the demand side. The focus of this study is in wheat, jute, cotton and sugar is of recent, on market penetration and is therefore more origin. The newly industrializing or middle- concerned with demand-side than with supply- income developing countries have become side factors. However, it needs to be pointed dominant in imports of wheat only in the out that the policies of developing countries mid-l 970s as they have experienced quickly growing incomes. Also, because of the increased demand for meat, coarse grain imports have *The autlhors are Chief, Commodities and Export gained in importance in recent years. The Projections Division and Economist, International shift of jute milling from Europe to the develop- Trade and Capital Flows Division, respectively, Eco- ing countries is also a phenomenon of the nomic Analysis and Projections Department, World 1970s. In sugar and cotton the developing Bank. We are indebted to Helen Hughes and Vasilis countries' markets have surpassed those of the Panoutsopoulos for access to the market penetration industrial countries only recently. These data, to Helen Bothwell for FAO data preparation and observations highlight the fact that the domin- to Aeran Lee for excellent research assistance. Also, ance of Western industrial countries in the we would like to thank two anonymous referees of ancepof Westernainduforastricultural coun n t World Development for valuable comments on an import demand for basic agricultural commo- earlier version of the paper. The views and interpreta- dities may well be eroded further in the future. tions in this article are those of the authors and may Be that as it may, they are presently still not be attributed to the World Bank or its affiliated important importers and the questions arise as organizations. 771 772 WORLD DEVELOPMENT Table 1. Shares of world imports of basic agricultural commodities held by major world regions, 1981* (in per cent) Industrial Developing Centrally planned Commnodity countries countries economies Coffee 83 12 5 Cocoa beans 72 10 18 Tea 45 42 13 Sugar (total raw and refined) 34 43 23 Beef and veal 69 19 12 Bananas 84 13 3 Fresh citrus fruit 68 16 16 Rice 11 74 15 Coarse grains 36 35 29 Wheat 18 56 26 Oilseeds, fats and oils 55 39 6 Cotton 35 48 17 Jute 22 56 22 Rubber 60 27 13 Tobacco 61 27 12 Source: FAO, Trade Yearbook (1981). *Economic classification according to the definition used in 'The outlook for primary commodities', World Bank Staff Commodity Working Paper No. 9 (January 1983). which affect their production and exports are of agricultural commodity trade in total exports also of importance (see e.g. Bale and Duncan, was 50% in 1965 and declined to 23% in 1980 1983). (see Table 3). For the low-income, oil-importing Trade in agricualtural products is no longer as developing countries the share has declined important for developing countries as it once from 60% in 1965 to 36% in 1980. was. Manufactured exports have been growing Nevertheless, for some developing countries faster than agricultural exports for some years - particularly those in the low-income category now (see Table 2) and the relative importance - agricultural exports are still an important of agricultural trade has corresporndingly de- part of total trade. In many of these cases, clined. For all developing countries the share moreover, the countries are highly dependent Table 2. Export growth of major world regions: agricultural trade compared with manufactures trade, 1965-1980* (average annual growth rates 1965-1980 at constant 1980 prices) Non-food agricultural Manufactured Food commodities goods All developing economies 4.5 3.9 14.1 All low-income economies 4.1 3.6 8.6 Asia 5.1 5.7 8.5 Africa 1.8 -1.3 9.0 Non-oil middle-income economies 5.5 5.5 16.5 Oil exporting developing economies 0.0 2.1 5.7 High-income oil exporters -4.1 -1.2 19.1 Industrial market economies 6.7 3.4 8.1 East European non-market economies 2.6 4.9 7.6 World 5.6 3.7 8.5 Source: World Bank data. *Country classification as defined in the TWorldcIDevelopment Report (1983). PENETRATION OF INpUSTRIAL COUNTRY MARKETS 773 Table 3. Shares of agricultural and manuifactured good exports in total merchandise exports, 1965 and 1980* (at current prices) Shares in total merchandise exports Sum of food and non-food agricultural Manufactured commodities goods 1965 1980 1965 1980 All developing economies 49.8 22.6 17.9 30.0 All low-income economies 59.9 35,8 28.8 38.7 Asia 54.4 30.6 38.0 46.7 Africa 72.2 50.3 8.1 16.5 Non-oil middle-income economies 55.2 30.7 21.9 49.4 Oil exporting developing economies 36.1 9.2 6.2 3.4 High-income oil exporters 1.1 0.1 1.0 1.4 Industrial market economies 21.1 14.6 69.4 72.2 East European non-market economies 20.0 10.8 61.7 55.9 World 26.3 14.7 56.5 55.7 Source: World Bank data. *Country classification as defined in the World Development Report (1983). on one export commodity as, for example, istics can be changed to avoid trade barriers Colombia (coffee 63% of total exports), Burundi thrown up in the form of tariffs or quotas. (coffee 89%), Ghana (cocoa 69%), and Mauritius Protection in the industrial countries against (sugar 66%). Agricultural export growth cannot manufactured imports has been largely against emulate the fast growth rate of manufactured the threat of imports from other industrial exports. Nevertheless, while agricultural exports countries in such products as steel, cars and remain an important part of total export trade, electronic products. It is only in respect of it is desirable that these countries should be able apparel and footwear, as presently manifested to exploit their comparative advantage and for instance in the Multi-Fibre Agreement, that export opportunities to the fullest. They view protection is directed against manufactured with concern, therefore, the possibility that pro- exports from developing countries. Likewise tection against agricultural imports into indus- with respect to agricultural imports, protec- trial countries might have been increasing. tion in the industrial countries has been mainly A study reported by Hughes and Waelbroeck directed against imports from other industrial (1981) showed that, while there have been some countries. Because they are mainly raw materials increases in protection against manufactured and, in many cases, products of a tropical imports by industrial countries, particularly environment, primary agricultural products since the 1974 recession, the developing from developing countries are often free of countries as a whole were able to increase their restraint when imported into the industrial level of penetration of industrial country mar- countries, which are geographically located kets at an average of about 8% per annum mainly in the temperate regions. The exceptions between 1970 and 1979. In part this has been have been sugar, which is a tropical product done by diversification and up-grading of in competition with the temperate sugarbeet manufactured products. But unlike manu- (and more recently High Fructose Corn Syrup, facturing, which offers the possibility of an HFCS, derived from maize), and fruits and infinite range of qualities of a particular good vegetables which come from developing and an infinite variety of goods, agricultural countries close to the European or North commodities are essentially homogeneous pro- American markets. Oilseeds, fibres, rubber and ducts in their primary state as well as after the tobacco are commodities widely grown in initial stages of processing. Therefore, it is less developing countries which face competition difficult to organize protection against primary in industrial countries either with similar or and processed agricultural commodities than close substitute agricultural prod' cts or with against manufactured exports, whose character- synthetic substitutes. However, for the latter 774 WORLD DEVELOPMENT group of commodities the protection in the after steps toward freer trade are taken, which industrial countries has been, at least at first, will be in the interest of all trading parties. directed aga4nst imports from other industrial It would be a difficult task to assess whether countries, The shares in world trade of the the level and extent of protection against major regions for 22 basic agricultural com- agricultural commodities by the industrial modities are shown in Table 4. countries changed throughout the 1 970s. Table 4. Sha2res of world exports of basic agricultural commodities held by the thzree ma/or world regions, 1981* (in per cent) Inouistrial 'Developing Centrally planned Commodity countries countries economies Coffee 5 95 0 Cocoa 5 95 0 Tea 92 2 Sugar 33 - 40 27 Beef 7 2 19 9 Bananas 4 96 0 Fresh citrus fruits 25 73 2 Rice 38 59 3 Coarse grains 77 21 2 Wheat 91 5 4 Soybeans 83 17 0 Soybean oil 47 53 0 Groundnuts 21 77 2 Groundnut oil 27 73 0 Copra 0 100 0 Coconut oil 5 95 0 Palm oil 3 97 0 Palm kernels 2 98 0 Cotton 33 47 20 Jute 3 96 1 Rubber 1 98 1 Tobacco 32 60 7 Source: FAO, Trade Yearbook (1981). *See footnote to Table 1. The advantage generally held by the exporter The main reason is that there have been a large of tropical basic commodities does not carry number of decisions affecting the degree of over to processed products. To protect their protectionism and the impact of those decisions domestic processing industries, protection in cannot easily be quantified. Moreover, many industrial countries is normally higher the of the trade barriers faced by agricultural higher the degree of processing involved. products are non-tariff barriers. However, it The industrial countries are not the only is possible to determine the chainges in market ones where trade barriers are a hindrance to the penetration of these products by exporting free flow of goods. The centrally planned eco- countries during the 1970s. What changes in nomies through their state trading practices are the degree of market penetration for a historical highly protectionist by nature. But also develop- period imply as far as future export prospects ing countries themselves, in particular some of of developing countries are concerned is obvi- the newly industrializing ones, have erected ously not easy to assess quantitatively. As trade barriers that are limiting trade - not least implied above, one of the difficulties involved with other developing countries. Whenever relates to the question of the extent to which protectionism occurs there are economic costs changes in the rate of market penetration are associated with it (see e.g. Bale and Lutz, due to supply-side constraints and competition 1981). It is therefore important that in the first from other suppliers as compared to demand- instance the establishment of further protec- side barriers. tionist measures be prevented and that there- PENETRATION OF INDUSTRIAL COUNTRY MARKETS 775 2. PENETRATION OF AGRICULTURAL For some of these, such as fruits and vegetables, EXPORTS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES sugar, cocoa and tobacco, the developing IN INDUSTRIAL COUNTRY MARKETS countries are important raw material producers and exporters (see Table 4). Tables 5-8 show We have assembled two sets of data to market penetration data for 16 four-digit ISIC examine recent changes in import penetra- (International Standard Industrial Classification) tion of the industrial country markets by items and for the total of ISIC Code 31 (Manu- agricultural exports from the developing fact zre of Food, Beverages and Tobacco). countries. From the World Bank's study of Table 5 shows that the developing countries market penetration of manufactured exports were able to increase their penetration rate for in industrial countries we have extracted the total manufactures of food, beverages and information about processed food products.2 tobacco into the 11 selected industrial countries These data are summarized in Tables 5-8. from 3.5 to 3.7% in the period between 1970 Market penetration is measured as a percantage and 1980. This change in the penetration of apparent consuzmption3 in 11 major industrial ratio amounts to a growth rate in their share countries as a whole4 (Table 5), in the EC-9 of total apparent consumption of only 0.6% (Table 6), in the United States (Table 7) and in per annum. At the same time the industrial Japan (Table 8). The source of the imports are countries have increased their mutual pene- shown by regional developing country groupings tration ratio from 5.2 to 7.2% - a growth rate of Southern Europe, Latin America, ASEAN, of 3.3%. But this increase seems to have resulted other developing countries and industrial from an increase of intra-trade in the EC. This economies. conclusion is justified on the basis that industrial A set of data has also been assembled in country penetration of the United States and Tables 9 and 10 which shows import pene- Japanese markets remained unchanged. Looking tration for some basic agricultural commodities at the per Drmance of the various developing from developing countries. These tables show cotmtry groups it can be seen that penetration for all industrial countries and for the European of the industrial country markets by the Community (EC), United States and Japan Southern European and all other developing separately, the share of developing country countries groups actually declined over this imports in apparent consumption for 1970 and period, and the Latin American region improved 1980. Here the emphasis is on those commo- only slightly. The major part of the increase dities against which there is substantial pro- came from the ASEAN grouping. The developing tection and for which the developing countries countries' shares of the EC and Japanese are significant exporters - sugar, tobacco, beef markets stagnated; only in the United States and veal, and vegetables. market did the developing countries penetra- tion rate increase - from 2.6 to 3.1f% which implies a growth rate of 1.7% per year. (a) Processed agricultural commodities The developing countries achieved their highest levels of penetration in the following Further processing of raw materials produced product groups: grain mill products, sugar within developing countries has become an area refining, manufacturing of vegetable and of considerable interest among people concerned animal oils and fats, wine industries, canning with economic development. There is, of course, and preserving of fruits and vegetables, manu- no good reason why a country which produces facturing of cocoa, chocolate and sugar con- a raw material should necessarily have a com- fectionery, and canning, preserving and pro- parative advantage in the manufacturing process cessing of fish, in that order. Of these product involved in its processing. However, given that groups the share of only two of them experi- developing countries do move into processing enced increases during the 1 970s: manufacturing of raw materials (whether of their own or of of cocoa, chocolate and sugar confectionery, imported primary commodities), it is main- and canning and preserving of fruits and vege- tained that important obstacles to their bene- tables. fiting fully from such activity are the trade The developing country gains in the United barriers erected by the industrial countries States market benefited almost entirely (by to protect their processing industries. more than 90%) the Latin American countries, Here we have looked only at market pene- with the largest gains (in absolute terms) being tration of manufactures of food, beverages made by cocoa, chocolate and sugar con- and tobacco; these items are easily identifiable fectionery. In the EC the main beneficiaries forms of processed agricultural commodities. were the ASEAN countries which doubled the T ablc 5. Market penetration of processed agriciultural products in 11 inzaJor indtustrial countries, 1970 and 1980 Southern Latin Indtistrial lSIC World* Europe America ASEAN Other LDCs All LDCs cotuntrics Processed agricultural products code 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 19o0 1970 1980 1970 1980 Manufacture of food, beverages and tobacco 31 8.966 11.122 0.332 0.311 1.741 1.826 0.277 0.449 1.166 1.161 3.485 3.717 5.217 7.191 Slaughtering, preparing and preserving meat 3111 12.252 14.148 0.252 0.165 1.627 0.916 0.032 0.064 0.657 0.679 2.539 1.798 9.019 11.642 Manufacture of dairy products 3112 5.549 8.264 0.024 0.016 0.025 0.019 0.000 0.001 0.005 0.008 0.055 0.044 5.400 8.145 Canning and preserving of fruits and vegetables 3113 10.380 13.899 1.871 1.910 0.402 1.285 0.266 0.628 1.634 2.338 4.121 6.070 5.786 7.449 0 Canning, preserving and x processing of fish 3114 14.671 19.337 1.237 0.528 0.623 0.314 0.154 0.762 1.695 2.310 3.638 3.823 10.130 7.996 U Manufacturing of vegetable and animal oils and fats 3115 20.305 12.479 1.084 0.481 4.133 3.838 '.962 2.964 3.573 2.312 10.482 9.489 9.208 9.935 t Grain mill products 3116 21.925 22.809 0.020 0.055 12.931 12.748 t 544 1.307 7.352 6.411 20.001 19.679 1.920 3.124 < Manufacture of bakery products 3117 1.166 2.104 0.007 0.028 0.002 0.015 0.001 0.018 0.019 0.051 0.029 0.112 1.136 1.987 t Sugar factories and refineries 3118 22.588 25.749 0.098 0.028 8.447 8.242 2.945 2.461 5.926 6.347 16.681 16.499 5.612 9,212 0 Manufacture of cocoa, chocolate and sugar confectionery 3119 7.346 12.073 0.098 0.260 0.439 1.655 0.032 0.275 1.220 1.578 1.795 3.753 5.489 8.263 tTi Manufacture of food products, Z N.E.S. 3121 4.510 6.867 0.130 0.135 0.750 1.218 0.127 0.177 0.340 0.362 1.344 1.887 3.106 4.958 H Manufacture of prepared animal feeds 3122 1.536 2.031 0.006 0.013 0.099 0.035 0.008 0.035 0.040 0.022 0.153 0.106 1.377 1.912 Distilling, rectifying and blending spirits 3131 11.5793 14.506 0.199 0.375 0.512 0.969 0.005 0.006 0.233 0.101 0.950 1.454 10.794 12.927 WVine industries 3132 19.553 35.446 3.672 6.142 0.025 0.119 0.000 0.003 3.674 0.418 7.255 6.663 12.104 28.057 Malt liquors and malt 3133 1.917 4.241 0.006 0.012 0.015 0.080 0.006 0.014 0.004 0.008 0.031 0.114 1.777 4.021 Soft drinks and carbonated waters industries 3134 0.384 1.316 0.003 0.012 0.001 0.009 0.000 0.008 6.001 0.006 0.005 0.035 0.378 1.281 Tobacco manufactures 3140 1.137 3.992 0.014 0.019 0.020 0.133 0.003 0.006 0.051 0.108 0.089 0.268 1.048 3.724 Source: World Bank, Market Penetration Project. *Including centrally planned economies. Table 6. Market penetration of processed agricultitural products in the European Community, 1970 and 1980 Southern Latin industrial Isic World* Europe America ASEAN Other LDCs All LDCs countries Processed agricultural products code 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 10 - Z Manufacture of food, beverages tt and tobacco 31 15.449 19.596 0.663 0.616 2.281 2.159 0.221 0.471 2.047 1.957 5.110 5.133 9.753 14.051 Slauglhtering, preparing and preserving meat 3111 26.527 27.873 0.682 0.338 3.262 1.385 0.058 0.051 1.665 1.261 5.449 2.898 19.376 23.571 3 Manufacture of dairy products 3112 12.564 14.976 0.021 0.009 0.013 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.011 0.012 0.045 0.026 12.300 14.867 0 Canning and preserving of fruits Z and vegetables 3113 23.725 33.332 3.884 5.089 0.657 2.014 0.483 0.527 3.596 4.031 8.266 11.284 14.177 20.933 ° Canning, preserving and processing of fish 3114 36.310 47.429 3.678 2.554 0.934 0.866 0.288 2.018 6.359 9.970 9.932 12.710 23.325 31.907 Z Manufacturing of vegetable e and animal oils and fats 3115 38.978 45.781 2.138 1.120 8.415 9.867 2.362 5.203 9.000 6.656 19.894 21.452 17.664 24.222 C Grain mill products 3116 25.015 30.230 0.046 0.128 13.149 13.236 0.432 1.366 9.251 11.062 21.595 24.147 3.411 6.072 Manufacture of bakeiy products 3117 2.301 4.801 0.009 0.040 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.015 0.020 0.020 0.033 0.075 2.266 4.718 Sugar factories and refineries 3118 19.303 20.021 0.247 0.058 4.477 3.722 0.016 0.031 5.817 7.587 10.176 11.528 8.571 8.411 t- Manufacture of coal, chocolate - n and sugar confectionery 3119 12.255 18.164 0.166 0.469 0.545 0.881 0.052 0.153 2.064 2.551 2.913 4.143 9.230 13.928 0 Manufacture of food products, z N.E.S. 3121 12.187 18.855 0.352 0.340 P.225 1.873 0.148 0.180 0.794 0.714 2.512 3.093 9.433 15.698 H Manufacture of prepared animal feeds 3122 2.803 3.643 0.013 0.025 0.174 0.047 0.008 0.017 0.030 0.028 0.225 0.117 2.567 3.498 Distilling, rectifying and blending spirits 3131 8.283 15.179 0.394 0.686 0.915 1.325 0.005 0.004 0.523 0.194 1.933 2.252 6.273 12.783 Wine industries 3132 18.523 36.411 3.242 6.739 0.010 0.103 0.000 0.000 4.510 0.472 7.880 7.356 10.435 28.269 t Malt liquors and malt 3133 2.840 4.192 0.013 0.020 0.006 0.007 0.000 0.001 0.008 0.004 0.027 0.032 2.684 4.083 - Soft drinks and carbonated w waters industries 3134 1.184, 3.621 0.005 0.024 0.000 0.004 0.000 0.003 0.004 0.011 0.009 0-043 1.174 0.043 Tobacco manufactures 3140 1.623 8.164 0.001 0.012 0.005 0.022 0.002 0.004 0.060 0.185 0.069 0.227 1.555 7.937 Source: World Bank, Market Penetration Project. *Including centrally planned economies. Table 7. Market penetration of processed agricultural products in the Ulnited States, 1970 and 1980 Southern Latin Industrial IS1( World* Europe America ASEAN Other LDCs All LDCs countries Processed agricultural products code 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980- Manufactture of food, beverages and tobacco 31 4.798 5.287 0.150 0.131 1.646 2.057 0.346 0.398 0.495 0.486 2.624 3.067 2.112 2.133 Slaughtering, preparing and preserving meat 3111 4.525 4.095 0.056 0.052 0.900 0.670 0.005 0.012 0.129 0.128 1.088 0.861 3.223 2.937 Manufacture of dairy products 3112 0.981 1.561 0.026 0.021 0.036 0.036 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.u03 0.062 0.061 0.907 1.452 Canning and preserving of fruits and vegetables 3113 2.260 4.222 0.960 0.720 0.227 1.020 0.100 0.806 0.364 1.036 1.653 3.581 0.598 0.622 < Canning, preserving and 0 processing of fish 3114 14.445 9.623 1.249 0.478 1.313 0.844 0.097 1.245 0.898 1.509 3.472 4.095 10.809 5.440 t- Manufacturing of vegetable and animal oils and fats 3115 3.728 2.636 0.240 0.092 0.755 0.305 1.698 1.751 0.152 0.114 2.856 2.272 0.871 0.359 t Grain mill products 3116 20.250 19.054 0.002 0.008 13.332 14.061 0.651 1.293 6.670 3.701 20.006 18.595 0.244 0.459 < Manufacture of bakery products 3117 0.536 0.806 0.007 0.031 0.003 0.040 0.001 0.061 0.01]2 0.057 0.023 0.144 0.513 0.659 Id Sugar factories and refineries 3118 24.737 21.411 0.014 0.000 15.645 14.535 6.339 2.080 1.447 2.186 23.107 18.429 1.630 2.982 t Manufacture of cocoa, chocolate I and sugar confectionery 3-119 3.107 6.607 0.065 0.086 0.450 3.114 0.013 0.363 0.447 0.842 0.969 4.367 2.120 2.221 4 Manufacture of food products, z N.E.S. 3121 1.705 2.453 0.028 0.034 0.675 1.412 0.111 0.118 0.177 0.213 0.990 1.776 0.712 0.672 H Manufacture of prepared animal feeds 3122 0.200 0.280 0.000 0.000 0.033 0.009 0.002 0.003 0.001 0.003 0.036 0.016 0.165 0.264 Distilling, rectifying and blending spirits 3131 25.499 39.589 0.157 0.448 0.296 2.093 0.000 0.000 0.008 0.043 0.432 2.569 25.649 36.685 Wine industries 3132 21.153 32.719 4.606 4.547 0.058 0.112 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.030 4.667 4.679 16.426 27.837 Malt liquors and malt 3133 0.875 4.529 0.001 0.005 0.030 0.237 0.015 0.019 0.000 0.015 0.046 0.275 0.826 4.241 Soft drinks and carbonated waters industries 3134 0.029 0.296 0.002 0.005 0.001 0.015 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.002 0.026 0.026 0.270 Tobacco manufactures 3140 0.361 0.939 0.042 0.048 0.053 0.433 0.004 0.013 0.000 0.063 0.100 0.561 0.261 0.379 Source: WVorld Bank, Market Penetration Project. *Including centrally planned economies. Table 8. Market penetration of processed agricultural products in Japan, 1970 and 1980 Southern Latin Industrial ISIC World* Europe Arrcrica ASEAN Otlher LDCs All LDCs countries Processed agricultural products code 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 e: Manufacture of food, beverages t1z and tobacco 31 5.014 5.833 0.034 0.045 0.549 0.566 0.261 0.513 1.418 1.123 2.230 2.198 2.230 2.198 H Slaughtering, preparing and > preserving meat 3111 25.928 22.502 0.050 0.128 2.147 1.002 0.298 0.473 3.639 3.096 5.305 4.081 12.110 18.005 H Manufacture of dairy products 3112 3.593 4.357 0.000 0.001 0.045 0.013 0.001 0.005 0.018 0.014 0.062 0.031 3.512 4.173 O Canning and preserving of fruits Z and vegetables 3113 6.653 6.204 0.134 0.137 0.012 0.109 0.296 0.253 4.523 3.426 5.091 3.865 1.410 2.287 0 Canning, preserving and T processing of fislh 3114 1.783 2.711 0.004 0.012 0.060 0.032 0.075 0.159 0.396 1.186 0.563 1.390 1.081 1.255 z Manufacture of vegetable and t animal oils and fats 3115 10.025 9.744 0.082 0.082 2.375 2.038 1.308 0.814 2.856 2.791 6.467 5.582 3.313 4.060 C Grain mill products 3116 8.932 9.251 0.000 0.000 4.404 5.125 0.802 1.172 2.231 2.561 7.342 8.703 1.590 0.549 H Manufacture of bakery products 3117 0.126 0.264 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.025 0.034 0.066 0.034 0.093 0.092 0.171 Sugarfactoriesandrefineries 3118 26.158 84.444 0.000 0.063 2.159 0.124 2.354 21.670 16.034 52.036 18.611 39.430 7.573 45.010 > Manufacture of cocoa, chocolate and sugar confectionery 3119 3.258 3.855 0.001 0.061 0.087 0.851 0.015 0.256 0.861 0.439 0.960 1.595 2.279 2.256 0 Manufacture of food products, C N.E.S. 3121 2.494 2.673 0.186 0.032 0.220 0.314 0.169 0.269 0.271 0.281 0.840 0.890 1.631 1.774 Z Manufacture of prepared animal feeds 3122 1.203 0.547 0.000 0.004 0.077 0.077 0.034 0.022 0.229 0.024 0.340 0.127 0.852 0.416 < Distilling, rectifying and blending spirits 3131 0.626 3.313 0.001 0.075 0.008 0.035 0.000 0.003 0.012 0.014 0.022 0.126 0.598 3.178 > Wineindustries 3132 13.773 29.643 0.900 5.771 0.142 0.670 0.025 0.116 0.674 2.067 1.682 8.092 11.974 19.323 t Malt liquors and malt 3133 1.652 4.578 0.000 0.004 0.006 0.007 0.002 0.051 0.003 0.003 0.011 0.065 1.312 4.098 m Soft drinks and carbonated H waters industries 3134 0.009 0.186 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.040 0.000 0.035 0.001 0.003 0.003 0.040 0.005 0.147 Tobacco manufactures 3140 0.366 0.558 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.135 0.029 0.137 0.032 0.228 0.526 Source: World Bank, Market Penetration Project. *Including centrally planned economies. '. 0 Table 9. Import penetration of basic agricultural exports of developing coui-tries in industrial countries and the European Community All industrial countries European Community Apparent Developing Import Apparent Developing Import Commodity SITC code consumption countries' imports penetration ratio consumption countries' imports penetration o ratio 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 (thousand tons) (%) (thousand tons) (%O) tri Sugar 0611 + 0612 141,143 169,250 11,068 6556 7.8 3.9 60,156 81,331 1900 1613 3.2 2.0 t Tobacco 121 1649 1769 348 535 21.1 30.2 543 632 201 317 37.0 50.2 O Beef and veal 0111 19,603 20,561 453 176 2.3 0.9 6294 6532 322 85 5.1 1.3 Wheat 041 67,279 86,629 633 118 0.9 0.1 40,078 49,121 624 93 1.6 0.2 t,, z Rice 042 19,35,2 16,591 270 321 1.4 1.9 1000 1161 205 276 20.5 23.8 H Maize 044 125,443 152,426 6345 2061 5.1 1.4 23,812 25,863 4454 839 18.7 3.2 Tomatoes 0544 12,464 15,971 658 758 5.3 4.7 5132 6957 285 391 5.6 5.6 Source: FAO and UN trade tapes. z Table 10. Import penetration of basic agricultural exports of developing countries in the United States and Japan United States Japan Apparent Developing Import Apparent Developing Import z Commodity SITC code consumption countries' imports penetration ratio consumption countries' imports penetration 0 ratio 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 1970 1980 Z (thousand tons) (%) (thousand tons) (%) C Sugar 0611 +0612 50,458 49,809 4541 3485 9.0 7.0 7370 8001 778 1208 10.6 15.1 Tobacco 121 730 713 97 163 13.3 22.9 187 234 12 23 6.4 9.8 Beef and veal 0111 10,621 10,580 106 81 1.0 0.8 301 540 0 1 0 0.2 0 Wheat 041 19,383 28,741 0 2 0 0 5158 6265 0 0 0 0 Rice 042 2081 3528 0 2 0 0.1 15,971 11,514 17 12 0.1 0.1 Z Maize 044 91,146 105,726 0 0 0 0 6050 12,833 1578 1153 26.1 9.0 Tomatoes 0544 5669 6928 292 295 5.2 4.3 792 1026 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. Source: FAO and UN trade tapes. ool 782 WORLD DEVELOPMENT level of their penetration between 1970 and the United States are almost as large as imports 1980. The largest gains were made in canning, into the EC. Given the differences noted above, preserving and processing of fish, manufacturing it is obvious that Latin American countries have of vegetable and animal oils, and in grain mill increased their exports of these products products. It seems from the data that supplv- faster than West African cocoa producers. side factors have been important in influencing Supply-side constraints in the Western African the penetration rate of the developing countries. countries must be at least part of the explanation This can be concluded from the fact that the for these developments. ASEAN countries have considerably improved their share in all industrial country groupings - with the exception of the United States. The (b) Basic agricultural exports group 'Other LDCs' which includes many of the Lome countries was not able to increase In Table 9 the share of developing country its penetration in the EC; hindrances in the way exports in total industrial country consumption of supply responses must be an important is shown to have fallen substantially for sugar, factor in this instance. beef and veal, and maize. The penetration ratio Cocoa products are an example where the of tobacco has risen significantly. Developing developing countries have been able to benefit country sugar exports to both the EC and the from a lowering of trade barriers on processed United States fell absolutely between 1970 and products. In this connection it is interesting to 1980; however, the decline of exports to the note the differences in the performance of United States has been most important, with developing countries exporting to the United total exports falling by over 1 million tons States and to the EC. In 1975, under the Lom6 (Tables 9 and 10). Japan, on the other hand, Convention (which includes all African cocoa has increased the participation of developing producers), the EC made cocoa powder, cocoa country sugar exporters - increasing the level butter and cocoa paste duty free, Previously, of their imports by about 50%. We discuss the only the cocoa beans imports were duty free. recent experience of these four commodities In the United States imports of cocoa paste in detail below, especially with respect to the have been duty free, while the MFN rates on commercial policies applying in the major cocoa butter and cocoa powder were 3.0 and industrial countries. 0.8%, respectively, prior to the Tokyo Round of the MTN. These rates will be reduced to zero as an outcome of the Tokyo Round. (i) Sugar GSP suppliers have enjoyed zero duties on Sugar is an important developing country butter and powder since 1976.5 Given that the export whose production and export earnings EC and the United States have essentially moved have been adversely affected by protection to duty free entry for cocoa products (paste, against imports in the major industrial countries powder and butter) since the mid-1970s, an as well as by protection in the USSR and East expansion in imports of these processed pro- European countries. In recent years the United ducts and a decline in imports of cocoa beans States and Japan have been importLig 40-50% would be expected. As the reduction in tariffs and 70-75%, respectively, of their consump- was larger in the EC than in the United States tion requirements in the face of import controls and as the EC reduction related to a specific and price support programmes for domestic group of countries, notably in West Africa, it producers. Within the EC, however, the price was to be expected that the move to processed supports and import controls have been instru- cocoa products would have been greater in mental in promoting the EC to the position of respect of imports in the EC and that the being a net exporter, when previously it was a African cocoa producing countries may have net importer. expanded processing more than other develop- Sugar imports into the United States have ing countries. The data in Tables 6 and 7, been subject to country-specific quotas, which however, show in fact that import penetration have been particularly severe with respect to has expanded in the United States by a rapid refined sugar. Because of the nature of the trade 16.3% per year whereas in the EC the rate was restraint the developing country producers merely 3.6%. About 80% of the increase in the which have had access to the United States United States' market went to Latin American market (largely the Philippines and Central countries - notably Brazil, the second largest Americar and Caribbean countries) have cocoa producer next to the Ivory Coast. received a price premium over and above the Imports of cocoa butter, paste and powder into free market price, which has served to reduce PENETRATION OF INDUSTRIAL COUNTRY MARKETS 783 their incentive to lobby for freer access. How- (ii) Beef and veal ever, with an increasing share of the industrial From Tables 9 and 1 0 it can be seen that sweetener market (beverages, canned food, ice developing country beef and veal exports to creams, bakery products) being taken by sugar the industrial countries fell over the period substitutes - in particular High Fructose Corn 1970-1980 from 2.3% to less than 1% of total Syrup (HFCS) - the prospects for developing consumption - falling absolutely by 60%. country exports to the United States are poor. This decrease was primarily due to the absolute In 1970 HFCS sales in the United States were decline of developing country exports to the 60,000 tons and by 1980 they had grown to EC. The future of beef exports for the develop- 2.1 million tons. By 1985 consumption of ing countries looks grim for some years into HFCS in the United States could reach 4 the future. In the longer run, the growth of million tons. Consumption of HFCS is also incomes in the presently fast growing develop- growing quickly in Japan and the EC, This ing countries, and the ensuing growth in the added source of competition for sugar pro- demand for meat, should lead to larger markets ducers in the EC, United States and Japan for beef and veal and other red and white meats will give impetus to their demands for pro- in the developing countries themselves. At the tection from sugar imports as they cannot get moment, however, the industrial countries are protection from domestic production of sugar the major consumers of beef and exports to the substitutes such as HFCS. Ironically, protection major importers or potential importers among of the sugar industry, especially in the United them are severely constrained. The North States market, has been an important factor in American beef import market is large, but it is fostering the growth of substitute sweeteners. restricted by quotas and voluntary export Now that they are established, HFCS producers restraint to Australia and New Zealand and the will support sugar producers' demands for pro- Central American beef producers. Other develop- tection against imports, as controls on sugar ing country beef producers are not allowed imports protect manufacturers of sugar sub- into these markets because of the incidence of stitutes as well as producers of sugar. foot-and-mouth and other diseases. However, Sugar consumption in Japan is artificially even in the possible event of the elimination of restrained and prices to producers are raised foot-and-mouth disease in the more likely areas by the imposition of import duties to bring of Argentina and Uruguay, unless United States the price of imports to predetermined consumer and Canadian policy changes, entry of any new prices. Despite this protection Japan remains exporters would have to be at the expense of the second largest importer of sugar in the free existing exporters. market. The level of import penetration remains The major depressing factor on the develop- high because the agricultural subsidy system has ment of beef exports from the developing not encouraged a higher level of self-sufficiency countries has been the operation of the CAP in sugar due to competition from other crops and the expansion of the EC. Not only has the which also receive artificially increased prices. expansion of the EC placed what were impor- In the EC self-sufficiency has been attained tant markets for the major developing country by artificially increased producer prices which beef exporters (Argentina, Uruguay and Yugo- are supported by variable import levies intro- slavia) within the EC, but the operation of the duced in 1968 under the ( ommon Agricultural CAP has led to expansion of beef production Policy (CAP). The variable import levies make within the EC so that the EC is self-sufficient in the domestic market virtually impenetrable to beef production and is subsidizing into third imports. The only exceptions to jhis restraint country markets at the expense of other on sugar imports are: (a) drawback provisions exporters. This process will continue with the for imporfs of sugar which are re-exported after entry of Greece and the likely entry of Spain processing; (b) the import quota provided for and Portugal, which have all been important certain African, Caribbean and Pacific countries export markets for the major developing country under the Lome Convention; and (c) production exporters. in the French Overseas Departments (Guade- Imports into other quickly growing beef loupe, Martinique, Reunion) which comes under markets such as Japan and Korea are also the domestic EC production quota. Since 1977 sharply constrained by restrictions (both trade the EC has been a net exporter selling into and sanitation) which favour their highly third-country markets at prices subsidized under inefficient romestic producers, and the likeli- CAP, to the detriment of other sugar-producing hood of 4inports growing quickly is small. The countries. residual, free world market is thus very small and is presently dominated on the demand side 784 WORLD DEVELOPMENT by the USSR, which has in the past been an can be isolated jointly within the FAO produc- opportunistic participant depending on the tion data and the UN trade data; however, they performance of its grains and meat sectors. are an important component of the total vege- Recently, however, the USSR has signed a long- table market and are important for developing term beef agreement with Argentina, signalling country exporters adjacent to the European greater stability in its meat imports. and North American markets. The consump- tion of tomatoes in the industrial countries has grown at 2.5% p.a. between 1970 and 1980; (iii) Tobacco however, the develophig country exports have The import penetration ratio of tobacco from not grown as fast (only 1.4% p.a.) so their developing countries increased from 21 to 30% import penetration ratio has fallen from 5.3 to for all industrial countries over the period 1970 4.7%. This decline has been wholly due to the to 1980, with substantial increases in the pene- failure of developing country exports to the tration ratio in the EC and the United States. In United States to expand. These exports are in absolute terms most of the increase in imports effect tomatoes grown across the Mexican from the developing countries went to the EC border solely for export to the United States where the share of the developing countries in and Canada. This trade has been the subject of total apparent consumption grew to 50% in recent anti-dumping action in the United States, 1980 -- up from 37% in 1970. While develop- but the findings by the United States authorities ing country imports and their penetration were in favour of the Mexican exporters. ratio increased substantially in the United States, Imports into the EC maintained their total consumption of tobacco declined in the penetration ratio in the period 1970-1980. United States over the observation period. However, this trade with Southern European Tobacco was one of the commodities for which and North African developing countries is the ACP countries received preferential treat- likely to be of long-term concern because of ment in the Lome Convention. The reduction the proposed southward expansion of the EC. in import duties into the EC has obviously Greece, Portugal and Spain have accounted for benefited ACP tobacco exporters such as about 17% of fresh fruit imports into the EC, Malawi, which in the 1970s was the fastest 24% of dried fruit imports, 11% of processed growing tobacco exporter among the developing fruit imports, 13% of fresh vegetable imports countries. and 16% of processed vegetable imports - where Tobacco consumption in the industrialized these percentages are calculated on the basis of countries has been increasing annually at about EC imports which include intra-EC trade. 1% since 1970 while production in these Greece, Portugal and Spain are competitive countries has been increasing at less than 0.5% with the North African and Mediterranean per annum. It is obvious that tobacco pro- countries for the off-season fruit and vege- duction in the major industrial country pro- tables market in EC. Under the protection of ducer, the United States, which has been on a CAP prices, the production of fruit and vege- declining trend since 1960 of about 0.5% p.a., tables in these new EC countries will be likely has lost its competitive edge, especially to to expand. Exports of fruit and vegetables quickly growing developing country producers from Greece, Portugal and Spain which would such as Malawi, Yugoslavia, Dominican Republic otherwise have gone to other markets will be and Korea. If tobacco consumption continues directed (at least to a large extent) to the EC. to grow in the industrial countries at near The overall result will be a reduction in the historic rat, s (in spite of concerns about health total international market available for develop- and high levels of consumption taxation), the ing countries. prospects for developing country exports are bright. However, the decline in consumption in the United States may be a sign of things to 3. CONCLUSIONS come. This decline reflects health concerns which have resulted in reduced smoking levels Concern has been expressed about the as well as reduced content in cigarettes. Off- increase in the degree of protectionism in the setting this development is the rapid increase industrial countries in the 1970s and the impact in tobacco consumption in developing countries. of this on exports of developing countries. Studies of the impact of protection levels in industrial countries on manufactured exports (iv) Fresh vegetables from developing countries have shown that Tomatoes are the only fresh vegetable which despite some increases in protection, develop- PENETRATION OF INDUSTRIAL COUNTRY MARKETS 785 ing countries as a whole were able to increase trial countries. However, the prospects for their level of penetration of industrial country sugar exports from developing countries to markets at a healthy average rate of about 8% industrial countries are bleak, The major per annum between 1970 and 1979. The reliance industrial countries have highly protected by developing countries on primary agricultural sugarbeet production. Moreover, they are under exports has diminished because of this growth severe competitive pressure from domestic in manufactures; however, agricultural exports production of sugar substitutes. Up to three- are still important - especially for the low quarters of the sweetener market is for industrial income, oil-importing countries. Further, the use, of which the sugar substitutes (such as industrial countries remain important importers HFCS) could capture two-thirds or more. This of these products. Therefore, the threat or can only lead to demands for higher protection existence of higher trade barriers to agricultural against sugar imports. exports is of major concern. Developing country tobacco imports have We have not attempted to assess in detail done surprisingly well in the industrial markets, whether agricultural protection levels have particularly in the EC. The preferential trading changed in the industrial countries. This is very arrangement for tobacco exports from ACP difficult particularly if non-tariff barriers are to countries under the Lome Convention seems to be taken into account. Nor have we attempted be the important factor in this result. Prospects to establish any empirical relationship between for tobacco exports are good, with consump- changes in protection and changes in import tion in developing cQuntries growing and with penetration in the industrial markets. We have production in the major industrial country measured changes in import penetration ratios producer, the United States, likely to continue for both processed and basic agricultural pro- to increase only slowly or even to fall. ducts in industAal country markets during the The import penetration ratio of fresh 1 970s. Some of the major changes observed tomatoes has fallen slightly. This trade is are related to known changes in protection largely between the contiguous countries of levels and the prospects for developing country Mexico and the United States and Canada exports of these products are discussed in the and between North African and Mediterranean light of likely future developments. countries and the EC countries. TV. fresh Among the basic agricultural commodities vegetable trade has been under pressure from attention is focused on four products, sugar, producer interest groups in both the United beef and veal, tobacco and fresh vegetables. States and the EC. In future, the possible These are basic commodities in which the accession of Portugal and Spain could mean developing countries are important exporters even greater pressures for protection within and against which there is substantial pro- the EC as the production of the new entrants tection. Many other basic agricultural exports expands under the stimulus of the CAP. from developing countries, especially from Developing countries have been able to those in tropical climates, do not have close increase their import penetration in processed substitutes in the industrial countries (which agricultural products (ISIC 31, Manufacture of are located mainly in temperate regions) and Food, Beverages and Tobacco) in industrial are therefore not discriminated against in raw countries only marginally. They have been materials form. However, they are discriminated nowhere near as successful as with other against in processed form. manufactured exports. 6 Growth in their share The import penetration ratios for both sugar of total consumption has been 1.7% per year and beef and veal have fallen substantially. in the United States whereas penetration stag- Imports of beef and veal now comprise less nated both in the EC and in Japan. The fact than 1% of apparent consumption in industrial that penetration stagnated in the EC is sur- countries. This is a result both of sanitation prising given the stimulus provided by the regulations against countries with particular Lome Convention to a large group of developing animal diseases and comprehensive protection countries but it can probably be explained by against beef and veal imports in all the industrial supply constraints. countries. Increases in exports from developing Of the product groups included in ISIC 31 countries now depend primarily on markets in the share of only two increased - cocoa, the USSR and in fast growing countries in the chocolate and sugar confectionery, and canning Middle East, Asia and Africa. Little change can and preserving of fruits and vegetables. The share be expected in this situation. of the other products either stagnated or fell. Despite the decline in market penetration, The Latin American countries gained by far sugar is still a very important export to indus- the most from increased penetration of the 786 WORLD DEVELOPMENT United States' market and the ASEAN countries been reduced significantly. These results raise performed well in Japan and in the EC. On the the question of whether, aside from protec- other hand, 'Other LDCs' that include many tionist barriers in industrial countries, many of Lom6 countries and which have significant the developing countries concerned have pro- trade relations with the EC did not do as well vided an appropriate economic environment for as might have been expected, especially in areas the expansion of processed agricultural exports. such as cocoa products where tariff levels have NOTES 1. Various descriptive studies have been done on the ISIC classification for manufactured goods and pro- agricultural policies in industrial countries and their cessed agricultural commodities and the FAO classifi- effects [see e.g. Josling (1979) and Lutz and Bale cation for basic agricultural commodities). (1981)]. Some papers present rates of protection for specific commodities in individual countries for 4. The 11 countries are: Australia, Belgium, Canada, individual years. However, we are not aware of a France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, study that presents an overview of the experience United Kingdom, and the United States. of the 1970s, where time series of nominal rates of protection have been computed for the major com- 5. If, however, imports of butter or powder from a modities and the major industrial countries. single country in any year exceed US$25 million (in 1976 - increased annually in relation to their 2. This project was executed under the direction GNP) or 50%o of United States imports of that product, of Helen Hughes. whichever is the lower, they must pay the full MFN duty the following year. In 1979 imports of both 3. Apparent consumption is estimated as: domestic butter and powder from the Ivory Coast and Brazil production plus imports minus exports. To compute exceeded this ceiling. this equation it is necessary to produce a concord- ance between the trade data (that uses the SITC 6. 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Tyler, "The Anti-Export Bias in Commercial Policies and Export Performance: Some Evidence from Recent Brazilian Experi- ence," Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv Issues of the World Bank Reprint Series are available free of charge from the address on the bottom of the back cover. THE WORLD BANK Headquarters: U 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. Telephone: (202) 477-1234 Telex: WUI 64145 WORLDBANK RCA 248423 WORLDBK Cable address: INTBAFRAD WASHINGTONDC European Office: 66, avenue d'I1na 75116 Paris, France Telephone: (1) 723-54.21 Telex: 842-620628 Tokyo Office: Kokusai Building 1-1, Marunouchi 3-chome Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100, Japan Telephone: (03) 214-5001 Telex: 781-26838 The full range of World Bank publications, both free and for sale, is described in the Catalog of Publications; the continuing research program is outlined in Abstracts of Current Studies. 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