Myanmar Brief MYANMAR COVID-19 MONITORING draws from a monthly survey of households and en- terprises undertaken by the World Bank Poverty and Equity and Macro, Trade and Covid–19 Investment Global Practices with support from Myanmar Central Statistical Or- Monitorıng №1 ganization (CSO) to provide regular updates on households’ living conditions and enterprises’ activities. It also includes a community assessment led by the Social Development Global Practice. Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring was generously sup- ported through the Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building (TFSCBIII) by the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development, the Government of Korea, and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Ireland. Additional sup- port was provided by the governments of Australia, Denmark, Finland, and Sweden. 09 July 2020 EMA I L → MYA NMA R@WORLDB A NK .ORG ➚ Rapid information from household high-frequency monitoring Summary of Results from Round 1 1 8 M AY 2 0 2 0 — 0 3 J U N E 2 0 2 0 This brief presents the main findings from the first of eight rounds of a nationally repre- sentative survey of 1,500 randomly selected households in all states/regions of Myanmar. The surveys were undertaken by conducting a 20-minute phone call between 18 May 2020 and 03 June 2020. Key Messages Adverse impacts on employment and labor income are significant. In half of the households surveyed, the main worker Households have less diversified Food security is not yet worrisome, but was not working in the last seven days. livelihood sources. Participation in may become a concern for households Since the end of March 2020, half of activities outside the household and in who report limiting food consumption to those still at work have experienced a household businesses has declined, as cope with income shocks associated decrease in income. have remittances. with COVID-19. Myanmar Covid–19 Monitoring 09 July 2020 Brief No. 1 regular farming activities nor to plant rice since virus containment measures were introduced. About half of households have a farm activity and plant rice (43 percent of farming households). But these farm- ing households and – more worryingly – rice-growing farmers, have not been able to perform activities typical of this time of the year: 75 percent of rice-growing farm- ers have not started planting rice for the upcoming season. All rice-growing farm- ers report being unable to work as much as would be required for a successful rice harvest. They add that delays in rain on- sets are an additional concern. M yanmar's economy out of ten households’ main workers en- is expected to suffer gaged as casual labor in agriculture were Households have less diversified liveli- greatly from the im- not working in the last seven days. The hood sources. Before March 2020, 17 per- pacts of COVID-19. same is true for 50 percent of those en- cent of households were engaged in two The global economic gaged in construction. Household bread- sectors and about 13 percent did not work slowdown and national measures ad- winners engaged in manufacturing and in any sector. After March 2020, about 8 opted to contain the outbreak are ex- retail fare only mildly better: about 45 per- percent of households are engaged in two pected to result in GDP growth declin- cent of them have not worked in the last sectors whereas the share of household ing to a mere 0.5 percent in fiscal year seven days. Only four percent of house- with no livelihood generating activity 2019/2020 1. This crisis is expected to ad- holds’ main workers have switched jobs has risen sharply to 21 percent. In addi- versely affect households’ livelihoods. The since March 2020. tion, households have lost non-labor in- pandemic and related containment mea- come through a significant decline in re- sures have been disrupting economic ac- Among those still employed, income loss- mittances. With the return of Myanmar tivity in large employment sectors such as es are widespread across all sectors of em- migrants from abroad since early March, whole- sale and retail trade, tourism-related ployment, except public administration. three out of four households who usually services, manufacturing, and construction. Overall, more than half of households’ main receive remittances have received less or As a result, households may suffer loss of workers who are still working saw their in- no remittances. employment or reductions in income. They come decline since March 2020. Across all could risk falling into poverty and facing sectors, between 50 and 68 percent of work- Food security is an emerging concern as challenges relating to food security. ers experienced a reduction in earnings. households report reducing their food Only workers employed in "other services", consumption to cope with income loss- Up-to-date evidence is key to assess the which include public administration, have es. Even after March 2020, most house- impact of the crisis and thus inform managed to maintain stable incomes. holds have been able to buy rice and pro- policies to protect poor and vulnerable tein (chicken). However, in 11 percent households. In the absence of living condi- Family-run small businesses were badly of households, at least one adult mem- tions data more recent than 2017, the Myan- hit. They have been particularly exposed, as ber has eaten less than usual in the last mar Central Statistical Organization (CSO) 60 percent of them are in the retail trade sec- 30 days. Over the same period, 7 percent and the World Bank partnered to conduct tor. Eight out of 10 reported earning less or of households have reportedly run out of a high-frequency phone survey on house- no income at all since March 2020. The same food. About half of households report re- holds, with the aim of monitoring changes is true for personal service businesses and ducing their food consumption to cope in employment, incomes, and poverty since agricultural businesses, but these represent a with shocks, which threatens food secu- March 2020. relatively small proportion of businesses. rity and human development in the long term. Since March 2020, only 15 percent In more than half of households, the main In addition, a large share of farming of households received food assistance worker was unemployed. More than six households has not been able to perform from the government. 1 Myanmar Economic Monitor: Myanmar in the Time of COVID-19: Myanmar Economic Monitor June 2020 (En- glish). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. Figure 2 Change in sector participation http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/806001593183687694/Myanmar-Economic-Moni- tor-Myanmar-in-the-Time-of-COVID-19 Before end of March 2020 By May 2020 AGRICU LTU RE 39% 3 1% 3 1% AG RIC ULTURE 3 2% Figure 1 Share of households' main workers without a job or experiencing reduced income Lost Employment Lost Income 7% 25% SERVIC ES 32% Agriculture S E RV ICE S 26 % 25% Manufacturing Construction 7% Other Industry 6% AG . & SERVIC ES 32% Retail/Personal services AG. & S E RV ICE S 1 3% 7% 5% INDUSTRY 7% 6% Tourism/Trade AG . & INDUSTRY 2% IN DU ST RY 6 % 5% Public/Private administration INDUSTRY & SERV. <1% AG. & IN DU ST RY 3% 2% Other OTHER INDUSTRIES <1% Other services 7% NO ACTIVIT Y 21% IN DU ST RY & S E RV. <1 % N O ACT IV IT Y 1 3% 12% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70%