1) SClTSS') PAP HR ReportN~ LTDD-47,3 CHOIGLCAT I ~N' PA!"' iRNS O,F POPULAT (N A)EYP T fYME'1~NT IN THE SEuiUL REGIO'N' by Dona Hoon Chun anrd Kvu Sik LIA~ Apr i, ITh Uo .2r ! vai r¾nD.c in ;oz~prt-i One~tin';Policy Staff -- I 14 d .vIE 1 " aret:)Oc r~cai.o ±1s~i3r.~ bu atLtril_iv..xi to, ti( worl, I,-ank, r>:f !:f. af f i. i t oy; ,t in tli o, Water :Supply aiid Urban D:velopti-nat io)ari mu or the Sank--, directedzha I:Au.trinl Loc4tion Policies Research Project LiTo) o71-91l) Thle authiorLs qu!ild like tu thank the staff memnbers of the Korean National Buroau ot Statistics, specially, Mr. livun Moo S'in, f;or assisting with the data use.-J, an-id 'Mr.3. >[)rallinm Fanwar Cc.or.ce for processing the manuscript efficientl,7. ',esearch Projuct No. RPl), 07-2-91 Researci'r:h :j ct 'Liae: An Evaluatiorn of In-lustrial Location Policies tot Urban Decoincentl ration, Pliase il Abstract The second phase of the Industrial Location Policies Research Project (RPO 672-91) has generated a series of UDD Discussion Papers in the following three categories: (1) Descriptive studies on observed location patterns and policy planning and implementation experiences; (2) theoretical development and policy simulation studies; and (3) empirical studies of the firm's location behavior. This paper as part of the descriptive studies documents the changing location patterns of population and employment in the Seoul region during 1960-1981, using the population census, the annual manufacturing survey, and other secondary data. The analysis shows strong evidence of decentralization of both population and employment; the latter, however, decentralizing much faster than the former. The findings in this paper "set the stage" for further detailed analyses in the research project regarding possible impacts of various spatial policies on the observed location patterns. Table of Contents Page List of Tables.>....................................... ...............ii List of Figures.. .................................... ...... iii List of Maps........................ ................................. iv 1. Introduction........................................................... 2. Long-term Trends of Population and Employment Concentration in Korea ............................................................ 2 2-1 Trends of Population Concentration.............................. 2 2-2 Trends of Employment Concentration by Industry .................. 5 2-3 Trends of Employment Concentration by Occupation ................ 5 2-4 Relative Shares of increases in Population and Employment ...................................................... 8 3.- Population Growth in SMR........................................10 3-1 Natural Population Growth ...................................... .10 3-2 Net Migration .................................................. 12 4. Changing Patterns of Population Distribution in SMR .................. 16 4-1 Changing Patterns by City ...................................... 16 4-2 Changing Patterns by Ring ...................................... 18 4-3 Changing Patterns by Radial Sector.............................. 20 5. Changing Patterns of Employment Distribution in SR .................22 5-1 Changes in Composition of Employment ........................... 22 5-2 Decentralization Trends........................................ 24 5-3 Changing Location Patterns of Employment: Selected Sectors . 24 a) Manufacturing .............................................. 24 b) Retail, Wholesale, and Personal Services.................... 28 6. Comparisons of Changing Location Patterns of Population and Employment .......................................................... 30 7. Gradient Measures for the Decentralization Trend of Manufacturing Employment .......................................................... 33 S. Summary of Findings ................................................. 40 Mlaps ........................................................ 44-46 Appendix Tables .................................................. 47-58 References............................................................59 List of Tables 1. Population Share and Growth of Seoul Metropolitan Region (SMR), 1960-1980.........................................................3 2. Share of Popultion Increase in Korea, 1960-1980.........................4 3. SMRst Share of Employment in Korea by Sector, 1960-1980 ................6 4. SMR's Share of Employment in Korea by Occupation, 1960-1980............7 5. SMR's Share of Increases in Population and Employment in Korea, 1960-1980................................................................9 6. Birth and Death Rates by City in the SMR, 1975-1980....................11 7. Natural Populatio.a Change by City in the SMR, 1971-1981...............13 8. Contribution of Net Migration to Population Growth, 1970-1980.........14 9. Net Migration in the SMR, 1971-1981....................................15 10. Changes in Population Distribution by City in the SMR, 1960-1980......17 11. Changes in Population by Ring in the SMR, 1966-198G...................19 12. Changes in Population by Radial Sector in the SMER, 1960-1980 .......... 21 13. Changes in Composition of Employment by Sector, 1960-1980.............23 14. Changes in Composition of Employment by Occupation, 1960-1980 ......... 25 15. Changes in Spatial Distribution of Employment by Sector in the SMR, 1960-1980......................................................... 26 16. Changes in Distribution of Manufacturing Employment by Ring in the SMR, 1966-1980................................................... 27 17. Distribution of Retail Employment in the SMR, 1968-1979 ............... 29 18. Distribution of Wholesale Employment in the SMR, 1968-1979 ............31 19. Distribution of Selected Personal Service Employment: Restaurants arnd Hotels, 1968-1979 ..................................... 32 20. Changes in the Share of Employment and Population in the SMR, 1960-1980...............................................................34 21. Manufacturing Employment Density Gradients by Industry for Seoul, 1977 and 1981 ......................................................... 38 22. Manufacturia- Employment Density Gradients by Industry for the SMR, 1977 and 1981 ............................................41 List of Figures 1. Changing Patterns of Population and Non-agricultural Employment in the SMR, 1960-1980 ..................................................35 2. Changing PatternS of Population and Manufacturing Employment by Ring, 1966-1980 ..........................................36 3. Decentralization Patterns of Manufacturing Employment by Industry, 1977-1981: Seoul ........................................ 39 - iii - List of Maps 1. Forty-Nine Gu's and Gun's in the SMR.................................. 44 2. Five Rings in the SMR ................................... . 45 3. Seven Radial Sectors in the SMR ....................................... 46 - iv - 1. Introduction This paper has been prepared as part of a World Bank research project, "An Evaluation of Induccrial Location Policies for Urban Deconcentration," (RPO 672-91). The main objective of this paper is to summarize the changing location patterns of population and employment in the Seoul Region, the study area of the project. The distribution and movements of people and jobs and their interrelationships are essential to understand the overall spatial structure and its changes over time. This paper presents a descriptive analysis by contrasting and comparing the changing location patterns of population and employment over the long time period with a special emphasis on the manufacturing sector. The analysis in this paper shows clear evidence of decentralization of both population and employment during the past decade. However, the employment was decentralizing more rapidly than the population. Moreover, manufacturing jobs were decentralizing much faster than those in other sectors. These findings generate a set of important hypotheses concerning the relationships between movements of jobs and people and related policy implications. The main objective of this paper is to "set the stage" by docuFmenting the aggregate patterns for further detailed analyses in the research project. The data used in this paper came from various sources and they may not be comparable for certain types of analysis. Interpretations of the results based on different data sets should be made w'th some caution. -2- 2. Long-term Trends of Population and Employment Concentration in Korea The Seoul region in this study is defined as the area consisted of Seoul, the capital city, and Gyeonggi Province which surrounds Seoul. As of 1981 the administrative units in the SMR 1/ included the Special City of Seoul, 9 cities (Si's) and 19 counties (Guin's). (See Map 1.) 2-1. Trends of Population Concentration During the 1960-1980 period, when Korea experienced a high rate of economic growth with rapid urbanization, the shift of population and employmel2t into the SMR was remarkable. The region's population share rose from 21 percent in 1960 to 36 percent in 1980 (Table 1). This implies that the SMR was gaining about 400 thousand people yearly during this period: about 300 thousands by Seoul and 100 thousands by Gyeonggi Province, respectively. It is most striking to find that the SMR absorbed most of the country's net population incr;ase. The SMR's share of net population increase was 55 percent for 1960-70 and it was 77 percent for 1970-80 (Table 2). In the latter period, the share including the SMR and Busan was 98 percent! Within the SMR, however, the population growth patterns were different between Seoul and its surrounding Gyeonggi Province although the shares of national total by both of these areas have been continuously increasing (Table 1). Seoul experienced a high rate of growth of 9.3 percent per year in the late 1960ts. In the 1970's, however, the growth rate tapered down to less than half (4.4 percent) of the prex ous period. On the other hand the annual growth rate of 1/ For convenience, the Seoul region will be denoted as SMR (Seoul Metropolitan Region) in the paper. Table 1: POPULAIION SHARE AND GROWTH OF SEOUL METRDPOLITAN REGION (SMR), 1960-1980 1960 1966 1970 1980 Annual Average Thousand Thousand Thousand Thousand Growth Rate (%) Region Persons % Persons % Persons % Persons % 60-70 70-80 60-80 SMR 5,203 20.8 6,912 23.7 8,730 27.7 13,302 35.5 5.31 4.30 4.81 Rest of Korea 19,791 79.2 22,296 76.3 22,739 72.3 24,147 64.5 1.40 0.68 1.00 Total 24,994 100.0 29,208 100.0 31,469 100.0 37,449 100.0 2.33 1.75 2.04 S-MR: Seoul 2,445 9.8 a/ 3,805 13.0 5,433 17.3 8,307 22.3 9.31 b/ 4.41 5.74fi/ Gyeonggi 2,758 11.0 a! 3,107 10.6 3,297 10.5 4,995 13.2 1.49 b/ 4.12 3.4-5k a/ These figures f Seoul and Gyeonggi are not directly conparable with other years. The Seoul area was ore than doubled fron 268 km2 in 1963 by annexation of surrounding areas fran Gyeonggi Povinrce. b/ Average growth rates from 1966 only. Source: Economic Planning Board, Population and Housing Census 1960, 1966, 1970, 1975, and 1980. Table 2: SHARE OF POPULATION INCREASE IN KOREA, 1960-1980 1960-70 1970-80 Population Population Region Increase % Increase % (1,000's) (1,000's) SMR 3,527 54.5 4,572 76.5 Busan 718 11.1 1,279 21.4 Rest of Korea 2,230 34.4 129 2.2 Total of Korea 6,475 100.0 5,980 100.0 SMR: Seoul 2,988 46.1 2,934 49.1 Gyeonggi 539 8.3 1,638 27.4 Source: Economic Planning Board, Population and Housing Census, 1960, 1970, and 1980. -5- population for Gyeonggi rose from 1.5 percent, a rate which was lower than the national average, to 4.1 percent comparable to that of Seoul. 2-2. Trends of Employment Concentration by Industry The SMR's share of employment also increased during the last two decades as was that of population. The SMR's share of total employment of Korea incresed from 18-percent in 1960 to 33 percent in 1980 (Table 3). Excluding the agriculture and mining sectors, the employment share of the SIMR ro3e from one-third to almost a half of national total during the same period. The concentration trends were, however, different among sectors over the period of 1960-80. As shown in Table 3, the SMR's share of Korea's manufacturing jobs rose from one third to almost a half during the last two decades while that of agriculture sector stayed constant at 10 percent. The service, trade, transportation and communication sectors also showed increasing shares over the period. The electricity, gas and water seczor, and the construction sector showed declining shares in recent years; until the middle of 1970's the employment shares of these sectors were rising but in the late 1970's they declined. 2-3. Trends of Employment Concentration by Occupation An examination of employment shares by major occupation also shows a heavy concentration trend in the SPIR during the last two decades. All white-collar jobs, professional and technical, administrative, clerical, sales, and services, showed an increasing concentration (Table 4). Especially, the share of the administrative category which includes government administrators, legislative officials, and managers, doubled from 34 percent in 1960 to 67 percent Table 3: SMR'S SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT IN KOREA BY SECTOR, 1960-1980 (%) SMR Seoul Gyeonggi Sector 1960 1970 1975 1980 1960 1970 1975 1980 1960 1970 1975 1980 Agriculture and Fisheries 10.0 10.5 11.4 10.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 9.8 9.9 10.7 9.9 Mining and Quarrying 9.9 14.7 12.2 8.8 5.6 6.6 6.2 4.4 4.3 8.1 6.0 4.4 Manufacturing 29.1 41.7 47.6 48.2 18.5 31.7 32.8 29.6 10.6 10.0 14.8 18.6 Electricity, Gas and Water 45.3 48.5 51.7 38.9 33.4 36.1 40.4 27.8 11.9 12.4 11.3 11.1 Construction 41.9 45.1 50.3 47.6 31.3 34.7 35.9 32.7 10.6 10.4 14.4 14.9 Trade and Banking 30.8 44.4 43.7 49.3 20.3 34.5 32.7 37.1 10.5 9.9 11.0 12.2 Transportation and Commiunication 32.7 41.2 41.9 42.6 18.7 28.1 30.2 29.8 14.0 13.1 11.7 12.9 Services 36.0 43.0 42.8 43.4 23.3 30.7 31.3 31.5 12.7 12.3 11.5 11.9 All 17.8 26.3 28.4 33.0 7.4 16.0 16.8 20.2 10.4 10.3 11.7 12.8 Note: The figures for 1960 are the result of complete census and those for 1970, 1975, and 1980, are the results of 10%, 5%, and 15% sample surveys, respectively. This table is derived from Appendix Tables Al through A4. Source: Economic Planning Board, Population and Housing Census of Korea, 1960 (Vol 1, 11-1), 1970 (Vol. 2, 4-1), 1975 (Vol. 2, 3-1), and 1980 (Vol. 2, 3-1). i C Table 4: SMR'S SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT IN KOREA BY OCCUPATION, 1960-1980 (%) SMR Seoul Gyeonggi Occupation 1960 1970 1975 1980 1960 1970 1975 1980 1960 1970 1975 1980 Professional and Technical 29.7 39.0 41.4 44.6 19.9 30.3 31e8 34.1 9.8 8.7 9.5 10.5 Administrative 33.8 55.6 57.3 67.2 23.9 48.6 49.9 60.4 9.9 7.0 7.4 6.7 Clerical 38.8 48.8 50.8 53.2 22.8 39.9 40.7 40.3 10.0 8.9 10.1 12.9 Sales 30.0 42.5 43.9 47.7 19.1 32.5 32.5 35.4 10.9 10.0 11.3 12.3 Service 39.6 46.8 42.1 46.0 25.9 34.0 30.1 32.5 13.6 12.8 12.0 13.5 Farmers, Fisherman 10.0 10.6 11.4 10.3 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 9.8 10.0 10.7 9.8 Production Workers (including Trans. & Comm.) 30.6 39.4 44.4 43.6 19.0 28.3 29.9 26.3 11.6 11.1 14.5 17.4 All 17.8 26.3 28.4 33.0 7.4 16.0 16.8 20.2 10.4 10.3 11.7 12.8 Note: This Table is derived from Appendix Tables A5 through A8. Source: Economic Planning Board, Population and Housing Census of Korea, 1960 (Vol. 1, 11-1), 1970 (Vol. 2, 4-1), 1975 (Vol. 2, 3-1), and 1980 (Vol. 2, 3-1). -8- in 1980. (Nevertheless, employment share of this category within the SMR continuously declined because the employment size of this category in the region is small. See Table A5.) The production workers (including those in transportation and communitaion), the largest job category in the SMR, was heavily concentrated in the SMR until the middle of 1970's, but since then the share showed a declining trend although their share within the SMR was increasing over the-entire period of 1960-80. There are clear differences in the trends of employment concentration between Seoul and Gyeonggi Province as was the case with the trends of population concentration. In the 1960's the SMIR's increased share of non-agricultural jobs occurred mainly in Seoul while Gyeonggi's share declined slightly. In 1970's, however, the share increased for Gyeonggi as well as Seoul. 2-4. Relative Shares of Increases in Population and Employment As indicated above, both population and employment increased their concentration in the SMR during the last two decades. As indicated earlier, the SMR's share of Korea's population increased from 21 percent in 1960 to 36 percent in 1980 while its share of employment rose from 18 percent to 33 percent during the same period. The last four columns of Table 5 show that the SMR's share of population increase in Korea rose much faster than its share of employment increase during the past two decades. The SMR had 55 percent of the total population increase->-in Korea during 1960-1970, but the share rose to 77 percent during 1970-1980; the SMR's share of the total employment increase rose from 46 percent to 60 percent. When looked at Seoul and Gyeonggi separately, Seoul's share of both population and employment increases Table 5: SMR'S SHARE OF INCREASES IN POPULAIION AND EMPLOYMENT IN KOREA, 1960-1980 &are of Population (P) Employment (E) Increase (%) w (Thousand Persons) (Thousand Persons) 1960-70 1970-80 Regon 1960 % 1970 % 1980 % 1960 %. 1970 % 1980 % P E P E SMR 5,203 20.8 8,730 27.78 13,302 35.5 1,251 17.8 2,670 26.4 4,183 33.0 5'M.5 45.5 76.5 59.8 Rest of Korea 19,791 79.2 22,739 72.3 24.147 64.5 5,785 82.2 7,483 73.7 8,499 67.0 45.5 54.5 23.5 40.2 IKorea Total 24,994 100.0 31,469 100.0 37,449 100.0 7,036 100.0 10,153 100.0 12,682 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.01100.0 SW: Seoul 2,445 9.8 5,433 17.3 8,307 22.3 522 7.4 1,622 16.0 2,559 20.2 46.2 35.2 48.1 37.0 Gyeonggi 2,758 11.0 3,297 10.5 4,995 13.2 728 10.3 1,048 10.3 1,625 12.8 8.3 10.3 28.4 22.8 al Percentage shares of increases in population and employment in Korea during the specified period. Source: Economic Planning Board, Population and Housing Census, 1960, 1970, and 1980. - 10 - changed only slightly during the two decades. Gyeonggi's share of population increase, however, rose more than three folds from 8 percent to 28 percent while that of the employment increase rose much less during the period. 3. Population Growth in SMR In the preceding section the trends of population and employment concentration were analyzed. The aim of this section is to document the main sources of the population growth in the SMR and contrast and compare the observed differences in growth patterns between Seoul and Gyeonggi Province. There are two sources of population growth: natural increase and migration. The population increase in a region for a given time period should be the sum of net migration and natural increase for that period unless there is a change of its boundary. Based on the available data, the trends of these two sources of changes are summarized for the SMR and its subareas. 3-1. Natural Population Growth Table 6 shows the natural population growth rate of the SMR and subareas for 1975 and 1980. During the period the natural growth rate for Seoul stayed higher (about 1.8) than that of Gyeonggi (about 1.5). Within Gyeonggi all satellite cities except for Euijeongbu, however, experienced a remarkable surge in the rate of natural increase; in 1975, the rate for the satellite cities as a whole was 1.5, but it rose to 1.9 in 1980. On the other hand the rate for the rest of Gyeonggi, mostly rural areas, declined significantly from 1.5 in 1975 to 1.1 in 1980. These differences in the natural growth rate between satellite cities and the rest of Gyeonggi can be explained by :he birth Table 6: BIRTH AND DEATH RATES BY CITY IN THE SMR, 1975-1980 Birth Rate Death Rate Natural Population (Per Thousand Persons) (Per Thousand Persons) Growth Rate (%) J Region 1975 1980 1975 1980 1975 1980 Seoul 22.0 22.2 3.6 3.5 1.84 1.87 Gyeonggi 21.3 20.8 6.3 5.5 1.50 1.53 SMR 21.7 21.7 4.6 4.3 1.71 1.74 Korea 24.3 21.9 6.9 6.7 1.74 1.52 Gyeonggi Incheon 19.2 23.2 4.3 3.8 1.49 1.94 Suweon 18.8 22.9 4.3 4.2 1.45 1.87 Seongnam 20.6 25.5 4.6 4.7 1.60 2.08 Euijeongbu 18.8 18.1 3.9 4.6 1.49 1.35 Anyang 21.5 24.0 4.3 3.5 1.72 2.05 Bucheon 17.8 25.6 4.3 3.4 1.35 2.22 All Cities 19.4 23.5 4.3 4.1 1.51 1.94 Rest of Gyeonggi 22.5 18.3 7.6 6.9 1.49 1.14 a/ The number of births less the number of deaths per one hundred persons. Source: Economic Planning Board, Report on Vital Registration, 1982. - 12 - rate for satellite cities (except for Euijeongbu) which increased substantially while the opposite occurred for the rest of Gyeonggi. On the other hand, although the death rate dropped for both satellite cities and the rest of Gyeonggi, it stayed much higher for the latter. Table 7 shows the actual figures of natural population increase by subareas of the SMR in 1971 and in 1981. The growth patterns are very consistent with those shown in Table 6. For the cities natural increase has been accelerating, while for other areas declining. Especially, the satellite cities have experienced remarkable growth of natural increase during the last decade. 3-2. Net Migrations During 1970-80, the period in which the data are available, the SMR consistently recorded a positive net migration each year. The data in Table 8 imply that the SMR gained about 360 thousand people per year 2/ and the migration component contributed significantly to the population growth during the period. For the SMR as a whole its contribution to the population increase declined during the decade; for Gyeonggi alone, however. this share increased while the opposite occurred for Seoul. Table 9 shows the net migration patterns between Seoul and Gyeonggi for selected years. It is significant to note that throughout the 1970's, the net mgiration to Seoul from Gyeonggi was negative while that from other regions was positive. This means that the positive net 2/ This figure seems overstated. SMR's total population increase of 4,572 thousands during 1970-1980 (Table 5) is smaller than the corresponding figure implied by the net migration of 3,579 thousands (Table 8) plus the annual natural increase of more than 200 thousands (Table 7). The data used in these tables are not directly comparable. - 13 - Table 7: NATURAL POPULATION CHANGE BY CITY IN THE SMR, 1971-1981 Natural Increase (In Thousand Persons) Region 1971 1981 1981/1971 Seoul 133.1 165.2 1.24 Gyeonggi 77.4 78.6 1.02 SMR Total 210.5 243.8 1.16 Korea Total 785.9 486.0 0.62 Gyeonggi: Incheon 14.5 21.3 1.47 Suweon 2.2 6.1 2.77 Seongnam 3.4 6.0 1.76 Euijeongbu 1.4 1.7 1.21 Anyang 1.4 5.4 3.86 Bucheon 0.9 5.3 5.89 Subtotal 23.8 45.8 1.92 Rest of Gyeonggi 53.6 32.8 0.61 Source: Economic Planning Board, Report on Vital Registration, 1982. - 14 - Table 8: CONTRIBUTION OF NET MIGRATION TO POPULATION GROWTH, 1970-1980 Total Population Increase (A) Net Migration (B) Net Migration Share (B/A) (In thousands) (In thousands) (%) (M) Region 1970-75 1975-80 1970-75 1975-80 1970-75 1975-80 Seoul 1,456 1,478 1,267 1,068 87.0 72.3 Gyeonggi 743 895 521 753 70.1 84.1 SMR 2,199 2,373 1,787a/ 1,792- 81.3 75.5 a/ These figures do not include the migratory exchange between Seoul and Gyeonggi. They include only net mnigrants from outside the SMR. Note: The data used here are not directly comparable to those used in Tables 6 and 7. Source: Economic Planning Board, Korea Statistical Yearbook, 1970, 1975, and 1980. Table 9: NET MIGRATION IN THE SMR2L/, 1971-1981 1971 1976 1981 1971-81 Thousands Thousands Thousands Annual Average Regiorn of Persons of Persons of Persons Growth Rate (%) Seoul 229 312 148 -4.3 Gyeonggi 112 144 152 3.1 Seoul:, from Gyeonggi -31 -53 -90 11.2le/ from Others 260 365 238 -0.9 Gyeonggi: from Seoul 31 53 90 11.2 from Others 81 91 62 -2.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Gyeonggi: Share of net migration Satellite Cities 84 113b/ 6.1./ Rest of Gyeonggi 60 39ˇ.' 8.33i' a/ The migration figures are the three-year averages for the reported year and its previous and next year. h/ Due to the absence of 1982 data for satellite cities, separately, the figure for 1982 needed in calculating three-year average was estimated by using the trend in the previous year. c/ Growth rate of negative net migration. d/ For 1976-1981. Source: Economic Planning Board, Korea Statistical Yearbook, 1971, 1976,and 1981. - 16 - migration to Seoul was due solely to the people moving to Seoul from other areas than Gyeonggi. The trend of out-migration from Seoul to Gyeonggi became stronger during the period, while the growth of in- migration to Seoul from other areas than Gyeonggi declined in the latter half of the period, contributing to the slowdown in the growth of Seoul's population (See Tabl.e 9). Within Gyeonggi Province, six satellite cities of Seoul have absorbed most of total net migration of Gyeonggi in the 1970's. This tendency became stronger in the recent years. In 1981 the satellite cities accounted for 74 percent of the total net migrants attracted to Gyeonggi (Table 9). 4. Changing Patterns of Population Distribution in SMR This section documents the changing patterns of population distribution within the region by three different spatial groupings of subareas: (1) by city, (2) by "ring," and (3) by "radial sector." 4-1. Changing Patterns by City Table 10 shows that in the 1960's, Seoul's population share in the region increased substantially from 47 percent in 1960 to 62 percent in 1970. In the 1970's Seoul's share relative to the rest of region stayed remarkably stable. Within Gyeonggi, however, the distribution changed dramatically; all satellite cities in Gyeonggi except Euijeongbu increased their shares in the region. Gyeonggi excluding the six cities lost its share to 19 percent in 1980 from 40_hpercent in 1960. In terms of growth rate, in the 1960's Seoul grew at an annual rate of 8.3 percent, much faster than Gyeonggi. In the 1970's, however, the growth rate was about 4 percent throughout the region. The satellite cities - 17 - Table 10: CHANGES IN POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY CITY IN THE R4R, 1960-1980 1960 1970 1980 Annial Average Ihousand Thousand Ihousand Growth Rate (%) Region Persons % Persons % Persons % 60-70 70-80 60-80 Seoul 2,445 47.0 5,433 62.2 8,367 62.9 8.31 4.41 6.34 Gyeonggi 2,750 53.0 3,297 37.8 4,935 37.1 1.83 4.12 2.97 SMR Total 5,203 100.0 8,730 100.0 13,302 100.0 5.31 4.30 4.81 Gyeonggi: Incheon 402 7.7 634 7.3 1,085 8.2 4.66 5.52 5.09 Suueon 91 1.7 107 1.9 311 2.3 1.63 6.4' 6.34 Seongnan (31) 0.6 61 0.7 376 2.8 7.00 19.95 13.29 Euijeongbu (57) 1.1 93 1.1 133 1.0 5.01 3,.84 4.33 Anyang (32) 0.6 (91) 1.0 254 1.9 11.02 10.81 10.91 Bucheon (62) 1.2 (72) 0.8 221 1.7 1.51 11.87 6.56 Subtotal 672 12.9 1,118 12.8 2,380 17.9 5.22 7.85 6.53 Rest of Gyeonggi 2,086 40.1 2,179 25.0 2,555 19.2 0.43 1.60 1.02 Note: The numbers in Parentheses are the population figures before proinoted to the city status. Source: Economic Planning Ebard, Population and Housing Census, 1966, 1970, and 1980. - 18 - had higher growth rates than that of Seoul with the exception of Euijeongbu; especially; it is striking that Seongnam grew at an annual rate of 20 percent while Bucheon and Anyang at more than 10 percent. This changing patterns in terms of growth and share of subareas in the region reflect the differential rates of net-migration and natural population growth discussed in the previous section. 4-2. Changing Patterns by Ring The SMR is divided into 5 rings; three in Seoul and two in Gyeonggi (see Hap 2). Ring 1 is the CBD; Ring 2 includes Gu's in old Seoul to the north of the Han river, except the northmost Gu which belongs to Ring 3 with all Gu's in South Seoul (south to the river). Ring 4 includes all six satellite cities and Banweol and Ring 5 has the outlying Gun's. Table 11 shows that Ring 1, the CBD, lost population during 1975-1980, in terms of both absolute numbers and share. The share of Rings 2 and 3, 3/ the rest of Seoul excluding the CBD, stayed almost constant in the 1970ts after increasing sharply in the 1960's. Ring 4 increased its share rapidly throughout the entire period. Especially, its share increased by four folds in the 19bO's. This was due to the dramatic growth of satellite cities. The outmost Ring 5 however experienced a loss of its share over the years. In the 1970's it lost population in absolute terms. In sum, the decentralization trend prevailed in the 1970's, but largely from Seoul to satellite cities. Also it is apparent that 3/ Because of difficulties of disaggregating data due to the changes in the boundaries of administrative units over time, the combined figures of Rings 2 and 3 are reported here. - 19 - Table 11: CHANGES IN POPULAION BY RING IN THE %1R, 1966-1980 1966 1970 1975 1980 Annual Average Ihousanr Ihousand Thousand Thousand Growth Rate (%) Ring Persons % Persons % Persons % Persons % 1966-1980 Ring 1 (CBD) 386 5.6 346 4.0 619 5.7 535 4.0 2.36 Ring 2 & 3 3,419 49.5 5,088 58.3 6,270 57.4 7,833 58.9 6.10 Ring 4 1,500 4.7 1,813 20.8 2,464 22.5 3,386 25.5 5.99 Ring 5 1,607 23.2 1,485 17.0 1,575 14.4 1,550 11.7 -0.26 SMR Total 6,912 100.0 8,730 100.0 10,929 100.0 13,302 100.0 4.79 Ring 4: Cities 1,118 12.8 1,648 15.1 2,380 17.9 7.85 Rest of Ring 4 695 8.0 816 7.4 1,006 7.6 2.68 Source: Economic Planning Board, Population and Housing Census, 1966, 1970, 1975, and 1980. - 20 - there were movements of people from outer areas to the satqllite cities forming subcenters in the region (See Table 9). 4-3. Changing Patterns by Radial sector Seven radial sectors are defined for the region mainly based on the major transport routes stretched out from the center of Seoul (see Map 3). This approach is useful for describing land use specialization. Sector 1 is the CBD of Seoul; Sectors 2 and 3 lead to the DMZ; Sectors 4 and 5 are mountaineous inlands and Sector 6 is the main transport corridor leading to Daejeon and Sector 7 is the industrial corridor leading to Incheon., Among the seven sectors, Sector 1, the CBD, and the three norther-i sectors (2, 3, and 4) experienced the decline of population share in the 1970's (Table 12). For all these four sectors the average annual growth rate for 1966-80 was lower than the region's average. The declining shares of northern sectors reflect people's preference to stay away from the North Korean border. Two southern sectors (5 and 6) however increased their shares and their growth rates were greater than the region's average. For Sector 7, the main "industrial corridor" leading to Incheon, however, the annual growth rate was slightly lower than the region's average. The fastest growing areas are Sectors 5 and 6. Sector 6 also experienced the development of an industrial corridor along the Seoul-Busan transport access existed throughout the Korean history. Sector 5 contains part of Seoul-Busan expressway built in 1973. This sector's share jumped from 15 to 19 percent in the latter half of the 1970's. - 21 - Table 12: CHANCES IN POPULATION BY RaDIAL SECIOR IN THE SMR, 1966-1980 1966 1970 1975 1980 Anrual Average Thousand Thousand Thousand TIhosand Groth Rate (%) Sector Persons ___ Persons % Persons ___ Persons % 1966-1980 Sector 1 (CBD) 386 5.6 341 4.0 619 5.7 533 4.0 2.33 2 822 11.9 1090 12.5 1,105 10.1 1,124 8.4 2.26 3 1,031 14.9 1,486 17.0 1,804 16.5 1,977 14.9 4.76 4 826 12.0 997 11.4 1,020 9.3 1,101 8.3 2.07 5 1,027 14.9 1,272 14.6 1,683 15.4 2,533 19.0 6.66 6 825 11.9 855 9.8 1,862 17.0 2,276 17.1 7.52 7 1,995 28.9 2,686 30.8 2,835 25.9 3,758 28.3 4.63 SMR Total 6,912 100.0 8,730 100.0 10,929 100.0 13,302 100.0 4.79 Source: Economic Planning Board, Population and Housing Census. 1966, 1970, 1975, and 1980. - 22 - 5. Changing Patterns of Employment DistributLon in SMR 5-1. Changes in Composition of Employment During the past two decades of rapid industrialization in Korea the employment composition changed markedly. The changing composition of employment by sector in the SMR was similar to that of the country as a whole (Table 13). The share of agricultural employment in the SMR has rapidly fallen from 37 percent in 1960 to 12 percent in 1980, owing largely to the changes occurred in Gyeonggi. This declining trend of agricultural employment share for SMR was much faster than the whole country. The share of manufacturing employment was the same for both Seoul ./ and Gyeonggi in 1980, but Gyeonggi's share increased more than four folds while Seoul gained moderately. In fact, Seoul's share declined in the latter half of the 1970's indicating the decentral- ization of manufacturing employment. It should be noted that the service sector's employment share declined while that of the trade and banking increased in the SMR as well as for the country. This shift in employment composition was sharpest for Seoul. In sum, the overall trends of employment composition were similar between Seoul and Gyeonggi. However, the speed of changes were quite different between them depending on sectors. Gyeonggi's shares increased faster than Seoul for manufacturing, construction, and trade and banking. At the same time, the share of service employment declined faster in Seoul than Gyeonggi. 4/ Seoul's manufacturing employment share of 32 percent b¸ased on the population census data seems to be overstated. This figure needs to be verified by establishment-based data sources. Manufacturing employment share in large cities of the world is typically about 25 percent. Table 13: CQANES IN C(NPOSITION OF DE2IOYMENEW BY SECI'OR, 1960-1980 (%) Wl-ole Country Seoul Gyeong,gi - SR Industry 1960 1970 1975 1980 1960 1970 1975 1980 1960 1970 1975 1980 1960 1970 1975 1980 Agriculture 65.7 50.8 49.0 37.8 2.2 2.0 2.0 0.9 62.1 48.9 44.8 29.1 37.1 20.4 19.6 11.9 Mining & Quarrying 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 Manufacturing 6.9 14.3 17.4 22.1 17.1 28.3 34.1 32.4 7.0 13.8 22.1 32.0 11.2 22.6 29.2 32.2 Electricity, Gas and water 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 Construction 1.7 4.6 3.8 5.2 7.3 9.9 8.2 8.5 1.8 4.6 4.7 6.1 4.1 7.8 6.8 7.6 Trade & Banking -/ 8.4 13.6 14.5 18.5 22.9 29.3 28.4 33.9 8.5 13.0 13.7 17.6 14.5 22.9 22.4 27.6 Transportation and Coirnunication 2.1 3.2 3.4 4.3 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.4 2.9 4.1 3.4 4.4 3.9 5.1 5.0 5.6 Service b/ 13.5 12.0 10.8 11.1 42.3 23.1 20.3 17.3 16.5 14.4 10.6 10.3 27.3 19.7 16.3 14.6 Unikncwn 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 a/ The trade and Banking sector includes part of the personal services sector i.e., restaurant and hotel services. b/ The service sector is mainly consisted of domestic and personal services, social and community services, sanitary, public adninistration and defense service. Source: Economic Planning Board, Population and Housing Census of Korea, 1960, 1970, 1975, and 1980. - 24 - The changing composition of employment by occupation is consistent with that observed by sector as described above. The shares of professional and technical, clerical, and production workers, all rose in the region, while those of administrative and service workers declined. Within the region, however, Seoul's share of professional and technical workers increased only slightly while its share of service workers decreased substantially (Table 14). 5-2. Decentralization trends Table 15 shows employment shares between Seoul and Gyeonggi by sector for 1960-1980. In the absence of small area data for all sectors, the trends of spatial distribution can be observed at this aggregated level. In the 1960's, Seoul's share of employment rose for all sectors indicating the centralization trend. For all non- agricultural employment, Seoul's share increased from 65 percent to 75 percent in that decade. This trend was reversed in the 1970's. Seoul lost employment shares in all sectors except for transportation and communication, and services. It should be noted that manufacturing employment decentralized most rapidly from 76 percent in 1970 to 61 percent in 1980. The employmeni- in all decentralizing sectors together accounted for about 77 percent of the total employment in the region in 1980. 5-3. Changing Location Patterns of Employment: Selected Sectors This subsection presents the changing location patterns for four selected sectors for which various spatially disaggregated data are available. Manufacturing: Table 16 shows the changing location patterns of manufacturing employment by ring. Based on the establishment-based Table 14: CHANGES IN COMPOSITION OF EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION, 1960-1980 (%) Whole Country Seoul - Gyeonggi 9MR Occupation 1960 1970 1975 1980 1960 1970 1975 1980 1960 1970 1975 1980 1960 1970 1975 1980 Professional & Tecbnical 2.4 3.2 3.3 4.6 6.3 6.0 6.3 7.8 2.2 2.7 2e7 3.8 3.9 4.7 4.8 6.2 AdmnLnistrative 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.1 4.1 2.9 2.4 3.2 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 2.4 2.0 1.6 2.1 Clerical 2.6 5.8 6.7 9.5 10.3 14.6 16.2 19.0 2.5 5.1 5.8 9.6 5.8 10.9 11.9 15.3 Sales 8.3 10.1 10.4 12.1 21.3 20.6 20.2 21.2 8.7 9.8 10.1 11.6 13.9 16.4 16.0 17.5 Service 6.0 6.7 6.4 7.1 21.0 14.2 11.6 11.4 7.9 8.3 6.6 7.5 13.4 11.9 9.5 9.9 Farmers & Fishennan 65.4 50.7 48.8 37.6 2.1 1.9 2.0 0.9 61.9 49.0 44.7 28.9 36.9 20.4 19.5 11.7 Production 13.2 21.6 22.8 28.1 33.8 38.3 40.7 36.7 14.8 23.3 28.2 38.2 22.7 32.4 35.6 37.3 Unclassified 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.0 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.0 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.0 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Economic Planning Board, Population and Housing Census of Korea, 1960, 1970, 1975, and 1980. - 26 - Table 15: CHANGES IN SPATIAL DISTRIB(TION OF EWPL0)MENT BY SECIOR IN THE SMR, 1960-1980 (%) 1960 1970 1980 Sector Seoul Gyeonggi SMR Seoul Gyeonggi SNTR Seoul Gyeonggi S-1R Manufacturing 63.6 36.4 100.0 76.0 24.0 100.0 61.4 38.6 100.0 Tlectricity & Water 71.4 28.6 100.0 73.3 26.7 100.0 71.4 28.6 100.0 Construction 74.5 25.5 100.0 76.9 23.1 100.0 68.7 31.3 100.0 Trade & Bankinga/ 65.9 34.1 100.0 77.8 22.2 100.0 75.2 24.8 100.0 Transportation & Conmunication 57.1 42.9 100.0 68.1 31.9 100.0 69.8 30.2 100.0 Services 64.8 35.2 100.0 71.3 28.7 100.0 72.6 27.4 100.0 Total (Nonr- agricultural) 65.0 35.0 100.0 75.0 25.0 100.0 68.8 31.2 100.0 a/ A part of jobs in personal services, hotels and restaurants, was included. Sources: EconomLc Planning Board, Pfpulation and Housing Census of Korea, 1960, 1970, 1975, and 1980. Table 16: CHANGES IN DISTRIBUTION OF MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT BY RING TN 179E SMR, 1966-1980 1966 1970 1975 1980 Annual Average Thousand Thousand Thousand Thousand Growth Rate Persons % Persons % Persons % Persons % 1970-1980 Ring 1 31.3 13.5 49.1 12.4 44.0 6.1 28.2 3.1 -5.4 2 & 3 148.9 64.2 242.6 61.2 410.2 57.1 405.3 45.1 5.3 4 47.8 20.6 96.6 24.4 239.5 33.3 389.9 43.4 15.0 5 3.8 1.6 7.9 2.0 25.1 3.5 74.4 8.3 25.1 Total 231.8 100.0 396.2 100.0 718.8 100.0 897.8 100.0 8.5 Source: Econonic Planning Board, Mining and Manufacturing Survey, 1966, 1970, 1975, and 1980. - 28 - data it becomes clear that manufacturing employment was decentralizing during the entire period in contrast to the picture shown in Table 15 above. The three rings of Seoul lost their shares during the entire period; the levels of employment also declined in the latter half of the 1970's. On the other hand, the two rings in Gyeonggi gained their shares rapidly. Ring 4, where the six satellite cities are located, with an annual growth rate of 15 percent more than doubled its manufacturing employment share during the period. Ring 5, the outmost area, experienced more dramatic increase of manufacturing employment which grew at 25 percent annually. It should be noted here that this area lost population share during the same period (Table 11). - Retail, Wholesale and Personal Services: The changing location patterns of employment for the retail, wholesale, and personal services sectors can be observed using the trade census data prepared by the National Bureau of Statistics every three years since 1968. (The data are available for 1968, 1971, 1976, and 1979.) Table 17 shows the share of retail employment by several spatial categories for 1968-79. Between Seoul and Gyeonggi, Seoul lost the relative share during the ten-year period. Retail employment has been growing much faster in Gyeonggi than Seoul. Within Seoul, the CBD experienced a loss of share during this period. Within Gyeonggi, the satellite cities gained retail employment considerably with at an annual growth rate of 9 percent. The rest of Gyeonggi however experienced a continuous decline of its tetail employment share with a low growth of less than 2 percent per year. The overall changing patterns of retail employment are consAstent with those of population as shown in Table 10. This implies that retail activities follow the population 5/ See Lee (1985) for more details. Table 17: DISTRIBUTION OF RETAIL EMPLOYMENT IN THE SMR, 1968-1979 Annual Average Growth Rate of Region 1968 1971 1976 1979 Retail Employment (%), 1971-79 Seoul 70.7 70.0 66.7 67.8 3.7 Gyeonggi 29.3 30.0 33.3 32.2 5.1 SMR 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 4.1 (165,588) (217,262) (284,965) (300,117) Seoul: CBD 22.4 15.7 21.0 17.3 5.3 Rest of Seoul 48.3 54.3 45.7 50.5 3.2 Gyeonggi: Cities 11.6 17.7 16.9 9.1 Rest of Gyeonggi 18.4 15.6 15.4 1.8 Note: Parentheses are the actual number of employees. Source: Economic Planning Board, Report on Wholesale and Retail Trade Census, 1968, 1971, 1976, and 1979. - 30 - movement 6/, i.e., the decentralization of population induces the outward movement of population-serving retail activities. The wholesale employment in the region grew rapidly at an annual growth rate of 10 percent (Table 18). Unlike the retail employment, wholesale employment is more heavily concentrated in Seoul than Gyeonggi. Within Seoul the CBD has more than half of the wholesale employment but the share was declinig over time indicating the decentralization of wholesale trade within Seoul. Within Gyeonggi however wholesale trade was growing in satellite cities at an annual rate of 10 percent. For the region as a whole, the evidence of decentralization is not so clear. The data seem to suggest a mild trend of concentration toward Seoul in the 1970's. Over the same period of 1968-79 the relative share of personal service employment between Seoul and Gyeonggi did not change much (Table 19). However, within Seoul the share of the CBD declined considerably losing employment to outer areas in the city. Within Gyeonggi the share by satellite cities remained almost constant. 6. Comparisons of Changing Location Patterns of Population and Employment In the preceding sections we analyzed the changing location patterns of population and employment. The comparisons of the movements of jobs with those of people are important for understanding the overall changes of the spatial structure of the region. Such information can 6/ See Hoover and Vernon (1959) for empirical evidence for New York City and White (1976) for a theoretical support. S 1 Table 18: DISTRIBUTION OF IHOLESALE EMPLOYMENT IN THE SMR, 1968-1979 Annual Average Growth Rate of Region 1968 1971 1976 1979 Wholesale Employment (%) 1971-79 Seoul 88.9 83.4 83.7 85.9 10.4 Gyeonggi 11.1 16.6 16.3 14.1 7.8 SMR 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 10.0 (37,506) (27,339) (45,777) (58,729) Seoul: CBD 65.4 46.4 50.5 53.4 12.0 Rest of Seoul 23.5 37.0 33.2 32.5 8.2 Gyeonggi: Cities 9.6 10.6 9.5 9.9 Rest of Gyeonggi 7.0 5.7 4.6 4.3 Note: Parentheses are the actual number of employees. Source: Economic Planning Board, Report on Wholesale and Retail Trade Census, 1968, 1971, 1976, and 1979. Table 19: DISTRIBUTION OF SELECTOED PERSONAL SERVICE EMPLOYMENT: RESTAURANTS AND HOTELS, 1968-1979 Annual Average Growth Rate of Region 1968 1971 1976 1979 Service Employment (%) 1968-71 Seoul 72.7 73.3 74.2 74.0 8.7 Gyeonggi 27.3 26.7 25.8 26.0 8.0 SMR 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 8.5 (87,508) (124,922) (145,828) (214,325) Seoul: CBD 30.5 41.2 27.6 -0.6 a/ Rest of Seoul 42.8 33.8 46.5 27.4 a! Gyeonggi: Cities 14.6 14.6 13e7 a! Rest of Gyeonggi 11.1 11.3 14.3 a/ a/ The average rate for the period of 1976-1979 only. Source: Economic Planning Board, Report on Wholesale and Retail Trade Census, 1968, 1971, 1976, and 1979. f t ; J .33 - provide policy implications, for example, regarding housing demand and changes in commuting patterns. Table 20 shows the relative changes of population and employment shares between Seoul and Gyeonggi over the period of 1960- 80. In the 1960's both population and employment had been rapidly concentrating in Seoul. In the 1970's however, while the population shares remained remarkably stable, Seoul's employment share declined reflecting decentralization of non-agricultural employment in the region (See Figure 1). FoJr a more disaggregated comparison, the changing spatial distribution of population is plotted agailist that of manufacturing employment in Figure 2 using the information from Tables 11 and 16. During the 1970's the manufacturing employment share of both the CBD (Ring 1) and the rest of Seoul (Ring 2 and 3) continuously declined while the population share of the latter increased slightly. Both Ring 4 and Ring 5 in Gyeonggi however experienced sharp increases of manufacturing employment share. On the other hand, the population share of Ring 4 increased while that of Ring 5 declined. Ring 5, where manufacturing employment growth was fastest, was continuously losing population. We can conclude that in the 1970's, jobs were moving outward in the region without corresponding movements of the population. The contrast was much sharper in the case of manufacturing employment. 7. Gradient Measures for the Decentralization Trend of MIanufacturing .-Employment The extent of decentralization of manufacturing employment can be measured by estimating the employment density gradient over a time Table 20: CHANGES IN THE SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION IN THE SMR, 1960-1980 Non-Agricultural Average Annual Population (P) Employment (E) Change of Share Region 1960 1970 1975 1980 1960 1970 1975 1980 1960-70 1970-75 1975-80 P E P E P E Seoul 47.0 62.2 63.0 62.9 65.0 75.0 71.9 68.8 1.52 1.00 0.160.62 -0.02 -0.62 Gyeonggi 53.0 37.8 37.0 37.1 35.0 25.0 28.1 31.2-1.52 -1.00 -0.160.62 0.02 0.62 SMR 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Economic Planning Board, Population and Housing Census of Korea. 1960, 1966, 1970, 1975, and 1980. - 35 - Figure 1: CHANGING PATTERNS OF POPULATION AND NON-AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT IN THE SMR, 1960-1980 --------Nonagricultural Employment % Share in SMR Population -0 --- _____ ____ ____ ____ ____ Seou .... . .. . .....-3 . -.- -j-- ,- --. -. -. ..--- . -SEU Se.oul - 60/ o -----50 <- ~ - - - - --Gyeonggi - 30 - -..-- -- .--. -> --~16yeonggi 10 1960 1966 1970 1975 1980 Year - 36 - Figure 2: CHANGING PATTERNS OF POPULATION AND MAiNUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT BY RING, 1966-1980 Manufacturing Employment Population % Share by Ring 70 60- Rings 2 & 3 --504 xRings 2 & 3 40 vRing 4 40. 30 -' Ring 4 20 10 . Ring 5 Ring 5 - =Ring 1 1966 1970 1Ring 1 1966 1970 1975 1980 Year - 37 - period. The following exponentially declining density function was fitted using our data: D(x) = Doe-bx where D(x) is the employment density at x, where x is the distance from the city center to the centroid of the subarea. Parameter Do represents the density at the center and b is the slope of the function showing how rapidly the density falls off with distance. Table 21 reports the estimates of employment density functions for all 9 two-digit manufacturing industries as well as the total manufacturing in Seoul for 1977 and 1981. For the total manufacturing, both Do and b decreased during the period. Even for the short time period covered, this indicates clear evidence of decentralization. The function rotated with the center density becoming lower and the slope flatter in 1981 than in 1977. The results for individual industries also show decentralization trends for all indust'ies although the shape of the density function varies widely. Figure 3 summarizes the results for all 9 industries. For the paper and publishing, and the textile and leather industries, the density is very hiah at the center and decreases rapidly. The slope became much flatter duiing the period indicating a sharp decentralization. The food and beverage, the metal, and the fabricated metal industries have positive slopes for both years, but the slope is steeper and the center density lower for 1981 than for 1977. This implies that the employment density of the metal industries have been declining throughout the city, but the decrease for the outer areas was less than that for the center. In case of the chemical, and the wood product industries, the sign of the slope changed. This implies a rapid decentralization of employment. Table 21: MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT DENSITY GRADIENTS BY INDUSTRY FOR SEOUL, 1977 AND 1981 Fabri- Food & Textitle Paper & cated Other Year Beverage & Leather Wood Publishing Chemical Non-Metal Metal Metal Mfg. Total 1977. Do 20.5 461.3 11.0 585.6 57.1 4.0 3.9 86.2 44.9 1173.0 b -0.021 0.093 0.040 0.366 0.037 -0.087 -0.027 -0.026 0.007 0.078 1 1981 Do 19.1 330.2 3.7 304.2 40.3 2.6 1.5 52.9 15.7 854.4 m b -0.032 0.064 -0.081 0.262 -0.045 0.146 -0.096 -0.040 -0.077 0.061 Significant at .05 level. Data Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Mining and Manufacturing Survey, 1977 and 1981. I - 39 - Figure 3: DECENTRALIZATION PATTERNS OF MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, 1977-1981: SEOUL d=density per km d x=distance d dd 461 360 1977 1981 198 1977. 1911 20 4 7 x x x Food & Beverage Textile & Leather Wood & Wood Products dd d dd 585 19775717 304 19777 Paper & Pbblishina Chemical Products Non-metal 86 53 45981977 i 1 16 9 Metal Fabricated Metal Other Manuf actiirinq - 40 - In sum, the decentralization trends of individual manufacturing industries can be summarized as follows: For all industries the CBD density (Do) was lower in 1977 than 1981; regardless of the sign of the slope (b) every industry decentralized in Seoul, although the speed varied across industries. We also estimated the density gradient measures for the SMR with the same functional form. 7/ The results (Table 25) show the significant decentralization trend of employment in the SMR for individual industries as well as total manufacturing. For the region as a whole every industry consistently had a negative slope and these slopes have flattened over time with the exception of the metal industry. It should be noted here that all slope coefficients became statistically significant when the function was fitted for the region including Gyeonggi. 8. Summary of Findings This paper documented the trends of population and employment concentration in Korea and their changing location patterns within the Seoul region. Our findings can be summarized as follows: (1) During the past two decades of rapid industrialization and urbanization in Korea, the increasing concentration of Korea's population and employment in the SMR was remarkable. The SMR's population share increased from one-fifth to more than one-third and its employment share from less than one-fifth to one-third during 1960- 7/ A quadratic equation might fit better for the SMR because the greenbelt surrounding Seoul and the satellite cities may generate a U-shaped density curve. Table 22: MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT DENSITY GRADIENTS BY INDUSTRY FOR THE SMR, 1977 AND 1981 Fabri- Food & Textitle Paper & cated Other Year Beverage & Leather Wood Publishing Chemical Non-Metal Metal Metal Mfg. Total 1977 Do 64. 9 549.4 22.5 74.7 76.2 19.6 6.4 293.4 73.6 1658 b 0.083 0.113 0.098 0.113 0.086 0.079 0.043 0.115 0.103 0.112 1981 Do 48.3 480.1 20e0 76.7 65.1 18.1 6.5 177.1 52.1 1254 b 0.080 0.106 0.087 0.106 0.085 0.064 0.052 0.083 0.093 0.095 Note: All entries are statistically significant at .05 level. Data Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Mining and Manufacturing Survey, 1977 and 1981. - 42 - 1980. (For non-agricultural employment alone the region's share rose from one-third to nearly half.) In the 1970's the SMR absorbed more than three-quarters of net population increase in Korea. The manufacturing, and the trade and banking sectors were the two largest employers. (2) The extent of net migration and natural population growth explained differences in population changes among subareas. In the 1970's the number of out-migrants from Seoul to Gyeonggi was larger than the number of in-migrants from Gyeonggi to Seoul even though Seoul had positive net migration due to the inflow from outside the SMR. Within Gyeonggi the six satellite cities absorbed most of total net migration into Gyeonggi. The differences in the natural population growth rate also contributed to these differential growth patterns among subareas. (3) The decentraliztaion of population which continued in the 1970's did not occur uniformly throughout the region. The trend was stronger along the major transport routes to the south, particularly to the satellite cities in the southern part of the region. The outlying areas lost population during the period. (4) The sectoral composition of employment changed markedly in the SM4R during 1960-80. While the employment shares of the agriculture and the service sectors declined, the manufacturing and the trade and banking, the construction, and the transportation and communication sectors all increased their shares. The manufacturing share increased most rapidly. (5) The data revealed strong evidence of decentralization of employment in the SMR since early 1970's. Even though employment in all sectors showed a trend of concentration in the 1960's, this trend - 43 - reversed in the 1970's. The employment in all sectors except for the transportation and communication was rapidly decentralizing in the 1970's. The manufacturing and the construction sectors experienced the sharpest decentralization. The retail activities decentralized in a wqay that was similar to the changes in the population distribution, while the wholesale activites tended to centralize somewhat. (6) On the whole, employment decentralized more rapidly than population. The population share between Seoul and Gyeonggi stayed stable in the latter part of the 1970's. (7) The density gradient measures for manufacturing employment also support the decentralization trends at the two-digit industry level. The shape of the density function and the speed of decentralization varied across the industires, but such variations were significantly reduced when the functions were estimated for the whole region including both Seoul and Gyeonggi. Map 1: FORTY-NINE GU'S AND GUN'S IN t THE SEOUL RE GION j 30 '~"I~( /3141 / 3131 < I I I I k 3137 ABI(x PAJO ~.I 3142/ 1 g- .~ p.- ,, 3 ) 3147 1116o " , , '-3132 Ii ) )3138 IIIB' U/EO l 4il S I.- 3 ( 1 3143 - 1111 £' 1 12 3143 3112 31-.9-J 113 ~3149 3 'LF~ 1114 011 h.I y - - 1115 no U41064, 1 1116 Y^ t t ,0t 3135 313(- 3§2 1120 3145\' z °" t 11216 uoo 1122 o" 111823 oW 9# \ K- , /313 3144 1120; .!P '91( -.9 ;' . 3145 C400 ) ( 11224 o 11235 zuou~ 1124 i I l 3135 1125 W7 3101 m-m '~? 3103 3146~oi Qf10414 3134 Map 2: FIVE RINGS IN THE SEOUL REGION ""' -40 "'' "' 5 \ mD~~1a,,X 12s> 4I'8 Si, S j 1 .! 4 I139, 1112 1113 VtsGt 3149 1114 MO31GOO 1115 bo. f r m 1118 , 1119 OMaU3144 1120 Ao3145 1122 1o 11232 o.ou~ 1123 uo3135 1125 r.u 1126 J 1127 ~woouef5J\ 3101 ou-Amu 3102 3a.wow s11 3103 otowu*r 3104 -!3146 3134 !' r Map 3: SEVEN RADIAL SECTORS IN THE SEOUL REGION ( ' ; X'B - $ \ o \ / t {' 1 3141 I$ S * - W K 5; 137 ({f31031 4{ [ # - PJU e) F X--/ 3142 ( - LJ 3148 31 EU J fMC ? S 8 S 3132 < z , , j,,g,,3143 e si' s- l1,. Il94.t WL 1112 j11 1113 -. 31493 1114 U3 1 1115 OAIIm 1116 uw f-4 Onl 1 0 ' < Y 5 3133, 11197 touu 11,20 3144 1121 cmb. go 315 C3 112 2 .w VT 1123 no..ootmew 11124 D-.4a 33 1125 *L 1126 e- 1127 s&um.e-s 3101 tO' -)Am* 3102 3 3104 wA*'m 3146 3104 3134-a - 47 - Appendix Tables Table Al. Growth of Employment by Sector in the SMR Table A2. Growth of Employment by Sector in Seoul Table A3. Growth of Employment by Sector in Gyeonggi Table A.4. Growth of Employment by Sector in Korea Table A5. Growth of Employment by Occupation in the SMR Table A6. Growth of Employment by Occupation in Seoul Table A7. Growth of Effiployment by Occupation in Gyeongai Table A8. Growthl of Employment by Occupation in Korea Table A9. Changes in Composition of Manufacturing Employment by Industry in the SMR, 1973-1981 Table A10. Distribution of Manufacturing Employment by Ring and Industry in Seoul, 1973-1981 Table All. Distribution of Manufacturing Employment by Ring and Industry in the SMR, 1973 and 1981 - 48 - Table Al: GROWIH OF EWTLOYMENT BY SECIOR IN THE 5MR Annual Average Sector Employmrent (Thousand Persons) Growth Rate (%) 3.960 % 1970 % 1980 % 1960-70 1970-80 Agriculture and Fisheries 464 37.1 544 20.4 497 11.9 1.6 -0.9 b1ining and Quarrying 5.0 0.4 15 0.5 11 0.3 11.6 -6.1 Mknufacturing 140 11.2 603 22.6 1,348 32.2 15.7 8.4 Electricity, Gas and Water 7 0.5 15 0.6 15 0.4 7.9 0.0 Construcxtion 51 4.1 209 7.8 316 7.6 15.2 4.2 Trade and Banking 182 14.5 610 22.9 1,155 27.6 12.9 6.6 Transportation and Conmxnication 49 3.9 135 5.1 234 5.6 10.7 5.7 Services 341 27.3 526 19.7 609 14.6 4.4 1.5 Unknown 13 1.1 12 0.5 0 0.0 - - All 1,251 100.0 2,670 100.0 4,183 100.0 7.9 4.6 Source: Economic Planning Board, Population and Housing Cetnsus, 1960, 1970, and 1980. - 49 - Table A2: GROWIYR OF EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR IN SEOUL Annual Average Sector Employmant (Thousand Persons) Growth Rate (%) 1960 % 1970 % 1980 % 1960-70 1970-80 Agriculture and Fisheries 12 2.2 32 2.0 24 0.9 10.3 -2.8 Mrining and Quarrying 3 0.5 7 0.4 4 0.2 8.8 -5.4 Manufacturing 89 17.1 458 28.3 828 32.4 17.8 6.1 Electricity, Gas and Water 5 1.0 11 0.7 10 0.4 8.2 -1.0 Construction 38 7.3 160 9.9 217 8.5 15.5 3.1 Trade and Banking 120 22.9 475 29.3 868 33.9 14.8 6.2 Transportation and Communication 28 5.3 92 5.7 164 6.4 12.6 6.0 Services 221 42.3 375 23.1 442 17.3 5.4 1.7 Unknown 7 1.3 11 0.7 0 0.0 - - All 523 100.0 1,622 100.0 2,559 100.0 12.0 4.7 Source: Economic Planning Board, Population and Housing Census, 1960, 1970, and 1980. - 50 - Table A3: GROWTH OF FfLOX!4,T BY SECIOR IN GYE(XNGGI Annual Average Sector Employment (Thcusand Persons) Growth Rate (%) 1960 % 1970 % 1980 % 1960-70 1970-80 Agriculture and Fisheries 452 62.1 512 48.9 473 29.1 1.3 -0.8 Mining and Quarrying 2 0.3 8 0.8 4 0.2 14.9 -6.7 Manufacturingg 51 7.0 145 13.8 520 32.0 11.0 13.6 Electricity, Gas and Water 2 0.2 4 0.4 4 0.2 7.2 0.0 Construction 13 1.8 48 4.6 99 6.1 14.0 7.5 Trade and Banking 62 8.5 136 13.0 286 17.6 8.2 7.7 Transportation and Commrmication 21 2.9 43 4.1 71 4.4 7.4 5.1 Services 120 16.5 151 14.4 167 10.3 2.3 1.0 UTnknown 6 0.8 1 0.1 0 0.0 - - All 728 100.0 1,048 100.0 1,625 100.0 3.7 4.5 Source: Economic Planning Board, Population and Housing Census, 1960, 1970, and 1980. - 51 - Table A4: GROWTH OF EPLOYMENT BY SECIOR IN KOREA Annual Average Sector Employment (Thousand Persons) Growth Rate (%) 1960 % 1970 % 1980 % 1960-70 1970-80 Agriculture aid Fisheries 4,620 65.7 5,157 50.8 4,795 37.8 1.11 -0.73 Mining and Quarrying 49 0.7 100 1.0 91 0.7 7.39 -0.94 tbnufacturing 482 6.9 1,448 14.3 2,797 22.1 11.63 6.81 Electricity, Gas and Water 15 0.2 31 0.3 36 0.3 7.53 1.51 Construction 122 1.7 462 4.6 664 5.2 14.23 3.69 Trade and Banking 149 8.4 1,377 13.6 2,345 16.2 8.85 5.47 Transportation and Can-uication 149 2.1 329 3.2 551 4.3 8.24 5.29 Services 948 13.5 1,222 12.0 1,403 11.1 2.57 1.39 Unknown 61 0.9 28 0.3 0 0.0 - - Ali 7,036 100.0 10,153 100.0 12,682 100.0 3.74 2.25 Source: Economic Planing Board, Population and Housing Census, 1960, 1970, and 1980. - 52 - Table A5: GROWTH OF EvPL0YMENT BY OC 0PATION TN THE S>DR Annual Average Ocoipation Employment (Thousand Persons) Grcwth Rate (%) 1960 % 1970 % 1980 % 1960-70 1970-80 Professional and Technical 49 3.9 126 4.7 259 6.2 9.9 7.5 Admlinistrative 31 2.4 54 2.0 90 2.1 5.7 5.2 Clerical 73 5.8 290 10.9 640 15.3 14.8 8.2 Sales 175 13.9 437 16.4 731 17.5 9.6 5.3 Service 168 13.4 318 11.9 413 9.9 6.6 2.7 Farmers and Fislermnn 462 36.9 544 20.4 491 11.7 1.7 -1.0 Production Process Wbrkers 285 22.7 865 32.4 1,558 37.3 11.7 6.1 (Including Transportaion & Cnmiunication) Uhknown 1k. 0.9 36 1.4 0 0.0 - - All 1,251 100.0 2,670 100.0 4,183 100.0 7.9 4.6 Source: Economic Planning Board, Population and Hcusing Census of Korea, 1960, 1970, and 1980. - 53 - Table A6: GROWTH OF EMPLOMJENT BY OCCUPATION IN SEOUL Annual Average Occupation Employment (Thousand Persons) Grcwth Rate (%) 1960 % 1970 % 1980 % 1960-70 1970-80 Professional and Technical 33 6.3 98 6.0 198 7.8 11.5 7.3 Administrative 22 4.1 47 2.9 81 3.2 7.9 5.6 Clerical 54 10.3 237 14.6 485 19.0 15.9 7.4 Sales 111 21.3 334 20.6 542 21.2 11.7 5.0 Service 110 21.0 231 14.2 291 11.4 7.7 2.3 Farmers and Fishernmn 11 2.1 31 1.9 23 0.9 10.9 -2.9 Production Process Vbrkers 177 33.8 621 38.3 938 36.7 13.4 4.2 (Including Tranlsportaion & Communication) Unknown 6 1.1 23 1.5 0 0.0 - - All 523 100.0 1,622 100.0 2,559 100.0 12.0 4.7 Source: Economic Planning Board, Population and Housing Census of Korea, 1960, 1970, and 1980. - 54- Table A7: GRCAlH OF IPLOYNT BY OCCJPATION IN GYEONGI Annual Average Oco.ipation Employnt (Thousand Persons) Growth Pate (%) 1960 % 1970 % 1980 % 1960-70 1970-80 Professional and Technical 16 2.2 28 2.7 61 3.8 5.8 8.1 Administrative 9 1.2 7 0.6 9 0.5 -2.5 2.6 Clerical 19 2.5 53 5.1 155 9.6 10.8 11.3 Sales 63 3.7 103 9.8 189 11.6 5.0 6.3 Service 58 7.9 87 8.3 121 7.5 4.1 3.4 Farnmrs and Fisheren. 451 61.9 513 49.0 469 28.9 1.3 -0.9 Production Process kbrkers 108 14.8 244 23.3 620 38.2 8.5 9.8 (Including Transportaion & Comnuication) Unknown 5 0.7 13 1.3 0 0.0 - - All 728 100.0 1,048 100.0 1,625 100.0 3.7 4.5 Source: EconomLc Planning Board, Population and Hiusing, Census of Korea, 1960, 1970, and 1980. - 55- Table AB: GROWTH OF EtPL0YNENT BY OCCUPATION IN KOREA Annual Average Occupation Employment (Thousand Persons) Grcwth Rate (%) 1960 % 1970 % 1980 % 1960-70 1970-80 Professional and Technical 166 2.4 323 3.2 581 4.6 6.88 6.05 Administrative 90 1.3 96 0.9 134 1.1 0.65 3.39 Clerical 186 2.6 593 5.8 1,203 9.5 12.29 7.33 Sales 582 8.3 1,028 10.1 1,531 12.1 5.85 4.06 Service 424 6.0 679 6.7 895 7.1 4.82 2.80 Farmers and Fishermen 4,601 65.4 5,148 50.7 4,768 37.6 1.13 -0.76 Production Process Vbrkers 929 13.2 2,198 21.6 3,570 28.1 8.99 4.97 (Including Transportaion & Camnunication) Unkncwn 59 0.8 88 0.9 1 0.0 - - All 7,036 100.0 10,153 100.0 12,682 100.0 3.74 2.25 Source: Economic Planning Board, Population and Housing Census of Korea, 1960, 1970, and 1980. Table A9: CHANTES IN (CXIPOSITION OF 'n ACUURINO EMPLOYMENT a/ BY INDUSTRY IN THE RvR, 1973-1981 Fabri- Food & Textitle Paper & cated Other Beverage & Leather Wood Publishing Chemical Nonr-Mtal Metal Metal Mfg. Total (Numbers) 1973 8.9 30.7 1.0 8.1 11.2 2.5 2.4 26.5 8.8 100.0 (409,916) Seoul 1977 7.8 33.3 1.4 7.5 10.0 2.5 2.5 28.0 7.0 100.0 (541,827) 1981 7.9 35.4 1.6 9.7 9.3 2.5 2.0 25.3 6.4 100.0 (433,493) 1973 8.2 31.8 9.3 5.4 7.5 5.9 4.6 21.2 6.2 100.0 (170,928) Gy&)foggi 1977 5.5 29.3 6.1 3.7 9.5 5.8 3.6 30.9 5.6 100.0 (403,935) 1981 6.3 26.0 5.6 3.5 9.4 5.7 3.5 34.1 5.9 100.0 (486,526) 1973 8.7 31.0 3.5 7.3 10.1 3.5 3.0 24.9 8.0 100.0 (580,844) 'Total 1977 6.8 31.6 3.4 5.9 9.8 3.9 3.0 29.3 6.4 100.0 (945,762) 1981 7.0 30.5 3.7 6.4 9.3 4.2 2.8 29.9 6.1 100.0 (920,019) a/ Fstablislrents with 5 or imre employees. Source: Economic Planning Board, Mining and Manufacturing Survey 1973, 1977, and 1981. I e0 Table AIO: DISTRIBUTION OF NANUFACIJRING EMPIDYMENT BY RING AND INDUSTRY IN SEOUL, 1973-1981 Fabri- Food & Textitle Paper & cated Other 1973 BeveraAe & Leather Wood Publishig Chemical Non-Metal Metal Me1eW Mfg. Total (Numbers) Ring 1 6.8 10.9 1.7 45.0 11.2 13.8 3.4 3.4 9.9 11.0 (45,224) 2 26.1 44.5 65.4 38.0 42.6 40.9 19.9 36.2 43.1 39.7 (162,403) 3 67.1 44.6 32.9 17.0 46.2 45.3 76.7 60.4 44.0 49.3 (202,289) Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 (409,916) 1977 Ring 1 1.4 7.3 2.2 43.8 1.7 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.3 6.6 (35,967) 2 22.5 40.1 55.8 32.6 36.2 28.5 16.8 29.1 36.4 33.8 (182,879) 3 76.1 52.6 42.0 23.6 62.1 71.1 82.5 69.5 61.3 59.6 (322,981) Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 (541,827) 1981 Ring 1 1.2 5.4 0.9 40.6 1.5 3.5 0.3 1.9 1.1 6.7 (28,895) 2 28.8 40.4 45.3 26.6 36.5 37.4 15.1 28.2 35.2 33.8 (146,719) 3 70.0 54.2 53.8 32.8 62.0 62.1 84.6 69.9 63.7 59.5 (257,879) Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 (433,493) a! Establisbments with 5 or mwre employees. Source: Economic Planning Board, Mining and Manufacturing Survey, 1973, 1977, and 1981. Table All: DISRIBU1TION OF MANUFACR(JRIW EMPNLOYkaeN BY RIt AND INDUJSTRY IN THE SMR, 1973 AND 1981 Fabri- Food & Textitle Paper & cated Other 1973 Beverage & Leather Wood Publishing Chemical Nornletal Metal Metal Mfg. Total Ring 1 4.9 7.6 0.4 35.2 8.7 7.0 1.9 2.6 7.7 7.8 Ring 2 18.9 31.1 14.3 29.7 33.3 20.7 11.0 27.1 35.6 28.0 Ring 3 48.5 31.2 7.2 13.2 36.1 22.9 42.5 45.3 34.0 34.8 Ring 4 23.2 26.3 76.4 18.0 19.7 43.6 44.4 24.3 21.2 26.8 Ring 5 4.5 3.9 1.7 3.9 2.2 5.9 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.7 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1981 Ring 1 0.7 3.0 0.2 29.0 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.5 3.1 Ring 2 15.2 22.1 9.0 19.0 17.1 10.5 5.1 11.2 17.2 16.0 Ring 3 37.0 29.7 1u.7 23.4 29.1 17.4 28.8 17.8 31.1 44.1 Ring 4 37.5 36.4 77.5 21.8 43.9 49.8 61.3 52.3 41.8 44.1 Ring 5 9.6 8.8 2.7 6.9 9.2 22.2 4.7 7.9 9.3 8.8 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 a/ Establisfents with 5 or mcre enployees. Source: Economic Planning Board, Mining and Manufacturing Survey 1973 and 1981. * F . - 59 - References Hoover, E.M. and R. Vernon (1959), Anatamony of a Metropolis, Harvard University Press. Kemper, P. and R. Schmenner (1974), "The Density Gradient for Manufacturing Industry," Journal of Urban Economics 1, 410-427. Kwon, W-Y (1981), "A Study of the Economic Impact of Industrial Relocation: The Case of Seoul," Urban Studies, 18, 73-90. Lee, K.S. (1981), "Intra-urban Location of Manufacturing Employment in Colombia," Journal of Urban Economics, March. Lee, K.S. (1985), "An Evaluation of Decentralization Policies in Light of Changing Location Patterns of Employment in the Seoul Region," Urban Development Discussion Paper No.60, The World Bank. Mills, E.S. (1972), Studies in the Structure of the Urban Economy, Johns Hopkins Press. Hills, E.S-.and B.N. Song (1979), Urbanization and Urban Problems, Harvard University Press. Renaud, B (1981), National Urbanization Policy in Developing countries, Oxford Press. Spence, N. et al (1982), British Cities: An Analysis of Urban Change, Pergamon Press. White, L. J. (1976), "A Study of Retail Location in the German Federal Republic," mimeo, Princeton University. Wilson, J.Q., edited (1968), The Metropolitan EnigZma, Anchor Books.