Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00005803 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT Grant Number IDA-H8620 and Grant Number IDA-D2160 ON A GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 10 MILLION (US$15 MILLION EQUIVALENT) AND A GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 36.5 MILLION (US$50 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF CHAD FOR THE CHAD EDUCATION SECTOR REFORM PROJECT PHASE 2 April 30, 2022 Education Global Practice Africa West Region Official Use CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective February 21, 2022) Currency Unit = France CFA (FCFA) US$ 1= FCFA 578.01 SDR 1= US$ 1.4027 FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 Regional Vice President: Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Clara Ana Coutinho de Souza Regional Director: Dena Ringold Practice Manager: Meskerem Mulatu Task Team Leader(s): Harisoa Danielle Rasolonjatovo Andriamihamina Sandra Beemer, Bernardo da Cruz Vasconcellos, Fatim ICR Main Contributors: Diabagate Official Use ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AF Additional Financing Agency for the Promotion of Community Initiatives in Education/Agence pour la Promotion des APICED Initiatives Communautaires en Education AQIAM Al Qai’da in the Islamic Maghreb BEF Certificate of Basic Studies/Brevet d’Etudes Fondamentales BT Technical Training Diploma / Brevet Technique CDFC Department Centers for In-Service Training Department Centers Responsible for the In-service Training of Primary Teachers/Centres CDFCEP Départementaux responsables de la Formation Continue des Enseignants du Primaire CFCs In-service Training Centers/Centres de formation en service Elementary Certificate of Completion of Normal Studies/Certificat Elémentaire de Fin d’Etudes CEFEN Normales CEMAC Central African and Economic Monetary Community CILOP Chad Improving Learning Outcomes Project CMT Transitional Military Council /Conseil Militaire de Transition) CNC National Curriculum Center / Centre National des Curricula CPF Country Partnership Framework CRI Corporate Results Indicator CT Community Teachers DA Designated Account School Feeding, Health and Nutrition Directorate/Direction de l'Alimentation Scolaire, de la Santé et DASNS de la Nutrition DCRs Documentary Resource Centers DEELCPN Directorate of Environmental Assessments and the Fight Against Pollution and Noise DEF1 Directorate of Basic Education 1 (Primary)/Direction de l’Enseignement Fondamental 1 (Primaire) Departmental Inspectorates of National Education and Civic Promotion/Inspections Départementales DENPC de l’Education Nationale et de la Promotion Civique DFE Directorate of Teacher Training/Direction de la Formation des Enseignants DFE Teacher Training Department/Département de la Formation des Enseignants DFI Department of Initial Training/Division de la Formation Initiale General Directorate of Planning and Resources /Direction Générale de la Planification et des DGPR Ressources Department of Inspection, Supervision and Pedagogical Innovations /Département de l’Inspection, DIEIP de l’Encadrement, et des Innovations Pédagogiques DFIL Disbursement and Financial Information Letter Regional Delegations of Education and Youth/Deleegations reegionales de l’Education et de la DREJ Jeunesse DPE Directorate of Education Projects/Direction des Projets Education DP Development Partner DPO Development Policy Operation DRH Department of Human Resources/Direction des Ressources Humaines DSCS Statistical and School Mapping Department/Direction de la Statistique et de la Carte Scolaire Official Use DS&E Monitoring and Evaluation Department/Departement de Suivi et Evaluation DSS School Health Division/Division de la Santé Scolaire Third Chad Consumption and Informal Sector Survey/Enquête sur la Consommation et le Secteur ECOSIT Informel au Tchad EMIS Education Management and Information System ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework ENIB Bilingual Teacher Training School/Ecole Normale d’Instituteurs Bilingues ENI Teacher Training Colleges/Colleges de Formation des Enseignants ENS Higher Institute/ Ecole Normale Supérieure FA Financing Agreement FM Financial Management FTP Financial and Technical Partners GBV Gender-Based Violence GDP Gross Domestic Product GER Gross Enrollment Rate GPE Global Partnership for Education GRM Greivance Redress Mechanism GTRs Guide-to-Teacher Ratios HCI Human Capital Index HDI Human Development Index HIPC Heavily-Indebted-Poor Countries HL Hadjer Lamis ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report IDA International Development Association Departmental Inspectorates of National Education and Civic Promotion/Inspections Départementales IDENPC de l’Education Nationale et de la Promotion Civique IE Impact Evaluation Report IFR Interim Financial Report IMF International Monetary Fund IP Implementation Progress IPEP Primary Education Pedagogical Inspectorate/Inspection Pédagogique de l'Enseignement Primaire IPF Investment Project Financing IRI Intermediate Results Indicator IRR Internal Rate of Return ISR Implementation Status Report LEG Local Education Group M Mandoul MC Community Teacher/Maitre Communautaire MC0 Community Teacher level 0/Maitre Communautaire niveau 0 MC1 Community Teacher level 1/Maitre Communautaire niveau 1 MC2 Community Teacher level 2/Maitre Communautaire niveau 2 MDGs Millenium Development Goals Official Use Ministry of Secondary Education and Professional Training/Ministère de l’Enseignement Secondaire MEFPS et de la Formation Professionnelle Ministry of National Education and the Promotion of Civics/Ministère de l'Education Nationale et de MENPC la Promotion Civique Ministry of Economy, Development Planning and International Cooperation/Ministère de l'Economie, MEPDCI de la Planification du Développement et de la Coopération Internationale Minister of the Environment, Fisheries and Sustainable Development/Ministre de l’Environnement, MEPDD de la Pêche et du Développement durable Ministry of Higher Education, Research, and Innovation/Ministère de l'Enseignement Supérieur, de la MESRI Recherche et de l'Innovation MFB Ministry of Finance and Budget/Ministère des Finances et du Budget Ministry of Public Service, Employment and Social Dialogue/Ministère de la Fonction Publique, de MFPECS l'Emploi et de la Concertation Sociale MFPM Ministry of Vocational Training and Trades/Ministère de Formation Professionnelle et des Métiers Ministry of Women, Family and Child Protection/Ministre de la Femme, de la Famille et de la MFPPE Protection de l’enfance MKE Mayo Kebbi Est MKO Mayo Kebbi Ouest Ministry of Infrastructure and Access to Enclosure/Ministère des Infrastructures et du MID Désenclavement MTR Mid-term Review MPA Multi-Phase Programmatic approach MS Moderately Satisfactory MSP Ministry of Public Health/Ministère de la Santé Publique NDP National Development Plan NER Net Enrollment Rate Chad Education Sector Reform Support Project – Phase 2/Projet d’Appui à la Réforme du Secteur PARSET2 Education au Tchad – Phase 2 Analysis Program of the CONFEMEN Education Systems/Programme d’Analyse des Systèmes PASEC Educatifs de la CONFEMEN PCT Pupil-to-Classroom Ratio PCU Project Coordination Unit PEA Public Expenditure Analysis PARSET1 Education Sector Reform Project Phase 1 PARSET2 Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 Ten-Year Plan for Development of Education and Literacy/Plan Decénnal de Développment de PDDEA l’Education et l’Alphabétisaton PDO Project Development Objective PETS Public Expenditure Tracking Survey PFM Public Financial Management PIET Interim Plan for Education in Chad/Plan Intérimaire de l’Education au Tchad PIM Project Implementation Manual PPSD Project Procurement Strategy for Development PREAT Education and Literacy Strengthening Project/Projet de Renforcement de l'Education et de Official Use l'Alphabétisation au Tchad PTR Public-to-Teacher Ratio PRAMS Procurement Risk Assessment and Management System RESEN Status Report on the National Education System/Rapport d’Etat du Système Educatif National RF Results Framework SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic SDI Service Delivery Indicators Service of the Pedagogical Supervision of the Primary School/Service de l’Encadrement Pédagogique SEPP du Primaire SG General Secretariat / Secrétariat Général SIPEA Interim Strategy for Education and Literacy/Strategie Intermaire pour l’Education et l’Alphabetisation SMS Short Message Service STEP Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement TSRs Textbook-to-Student Ratio TVET Technical and Vocational Education UNDP United Nations Development Program UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization WB World Bank WDR World Development Report WHO World Health Organization Official Use TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET .......................................................................................................................... 1 I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 5 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL .........................................................................................................5 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) ..................................... 14 II. OUTCOME .................................................................................................................... 17 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ............................................................................................................ 17 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ...................................................................................... 18 C. EFFICIENCY ........................................................................................................................... 28 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING .................................................................... 29 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) ............................................................................ 30 Not Applicable.......................................................................................................................... 31 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 32 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ................................................................................... 32 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION ............................................................................. 33 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 34 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ............................................................ 34 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE ..................................................... 36 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ........................................................................................................... 37 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ....................................................................................... 38 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................. 39 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 41 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ......................... 56 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 59 ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ........................................................................................... 60 ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ... 71 ANNEX 6. 2017 ADDITIONAL FINANCING REVISIONS TO INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS ........... 72 ANNEX 7. ADDITIONAL FINANCING COMPONENT MODIFICATIONS ...................................... 74 ANNEX 8. OVERVIEW OF THE CATEGORIES OF TEACHERS IN CHAD ....................................... 76 ANNEX 9. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS .................................................................................. 77 Official Use The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name P132617 Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 Country Financing Instrument Chad Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency Ministere de l'Education Nationale et de la Promotion Republic of Chad Civique (MENPC)) Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The proposed Project Development Objective are to (i) improve teaching and learning conditions in primary and upper secondary schools in selected areas and (ii) strengthen the system to facilitate evidence-based decision- making in the education sector. Revised PDO The Project Development Objective is to improve teaching and learning conditions in primary schools nationwide and upper secondary schools in selected areas. Page 1 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) FINANCING Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing 15,000,000 15,000,000 13,319,611 IDA-H8620 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,633,680 IDA-D2160 Total 65,000,000 65,000,000 63,953,291 Non-World Bank Financing 0 0 0 Borrower/Recipient 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 Total Project Cost 65,000,000 65,000,000 63,953,291 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing 21-Jun-2013 08-Jan-2014 20-Mar-2017 31-Oct-2018 31-Oct-2021 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 23-Jun-2017 6.37 Additional Financing Change in Project Development Objectives Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Change in Institutional Arrangements Change in Financial Management Change in Procurement Change in Implementation Schedule 30-Oct-2020 53.40 Change in Results Framework Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Change in Implementation Schedule Page 2 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Satisfactory Satisfactory High RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 28-Dec-2013 Satisfactory Satisfactory .20 02 25-Jun-2014 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory .34 03 24-Dec-2014 Satisfactory Satisfactory 1.46 04 27-Jun-2015 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 1.59 05 31-Dec-2015 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory 2.32 Moderately 06 27-Jun-2016 Moderately Unsatisfactory 3.08 Unsatisfactory 07 29-Dec-2016 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 4.64 08 10-Jun-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 5.85 09 28-Dec-2017 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 10.69 10 30-Jun-2018 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 12.22 11 30-Dec-2018 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 20.32 12 08-Jul-2019 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 41.08 13 10-Feb-2020 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 42.55 14 24-Sep-2020 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 53.15 15 12-Mar-2021 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 54.02 16 29-Sep-2021 Satisfactory Satisfactory 62.94 Page 3 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) SECTORS AND THEMES Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%) Education 100 Public Administration - Education 26 Primary Education 54 Secondary Education 11 Tertiary Education 9 Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Human Development and Gender 102 Education 102 Access to Education 45 Education Financing 39 Science and Technology 6 Teachers 6 Standards, Curriculum and Textbooks 6 ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Ousmane Diagana Clara Ana Coutinho De Sousa Director: Ritva S. Reinikka Dena Ringold Practice Manager: Peter Nicolas Materu Meskerem Mulatu Harisoa Danielle Rasolonjatovo Task Team Leader(s): Marie-Helene Cloutier Andriamihamina ICR Contributing Author: Sandra F. Beemer Page 4 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Context 1. Country Context—Appraisal. Chad, a landlocked country, is rich in resources and divided into 23 regions located across three main geographical zones: a desert zone in the north, an arid Sahelian belt in the center, and a more fertile Sudanese savanna zone in the south. It faced, and continues to face, adverse climatic conditions, including prolonged droughts in some areas and yearly floods in others, as well as wind erosion, and desertification—all of which have led to recurrent food crises and population displacement. At appraisal, Chad had over 200 different ethnic and linguistic groups. Arabic and French remain the official languages and Islam and Christianity were, and still are, the most widely practiced religions. The estimated population of approximately 12 million people was unevenly distributed across the country’s national territory – 47 percent of the population was concentrated on 10 percent of the total area of the country – and was predominantly found in rural areas, with only 21.7 percent of the population living in urban areas. 2. Chad had experienced instability, violence and a number of military coups resulting in a string of one-party regimes since its independence in 1960. By the mid-1990s, the situation had stabilized and, in 1996, Idriss Déby was elected president in Chad's first multiparty election and was once again re-elected in 2011. Despite the political continuity, the country was considered a fragile state, being exposed to security crises, and affected by the instability in the sub-region. In 2013, the Council of Ministers endorsed a National Development Plan, that paved the way for the resumption of a dialogue with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) around the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC). The country’s economy was largely dominated by the agriculture and extractive industries, especially oil. Beginning in 2000, with the advent of the oil era and the high-level of investments in this sector, gross domestic product (GDP) expanded rapidly. Nominal GDP grew by 15 percent between 2000 and 2011, with a peak growth rate of 48.3 percent in 2003-04, and real GDP reached US$10 billion in 2011. Boosted by oil revenues, public revenues also grew significantly and contributed to significant increases in infrastructure investments. However, expenditure patterns were erratic as a result of the country’s dependence on food imports1 and on the international oil market. 3. The country’s strong economic performance during this period was not accompanied by similar improvements in poverty levels and human development indicators. Chad remained one of the ten poorest countries in the world, with more than half (53.2 percent) of its population living on less than US$1.25 per day, and it was ranked 183 out of 187 on the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Human Development Index (HDI, 2011)2. As a result, achieving most Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015 remained out-of-reach. 4. Country Context—Additional Financing. At the time of the 2017 additional financing (AF), Chad had experienced a sharp decrease in domestic revenues due to the drop in oil prices, which prevented the country from ensuring the effective and efficient delivery of basic social services. The World Bank Group’s response to the fiscal crisis included a 2017 emergency development policy operation (DPO) aimed at mitigating the short-term impact of the crisis and promoting fiscal stabilization. These measures were all meant to help the Government of Chad (GoC) begin to move 1Cereal production covered only 55 percent of the country’s needs. 2The low HDI value was mostly explained by a low education index of 0.219, which reflected the low expected and mean years of schooling. Page 5 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) away from the fiscal crisis and were aimed at protecting public spending in social sectors, especially education and safety nets programs. 5. In addition, Chad was still a low-income country, with a GDP per capita of about US$775 in 2015, and had some of the lowest human development indicators in the world. Combined with security risks stemming from the political instability—coupled with the presence of terrorist groups such as Boko Haram, and al Qai’da in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in the country, as well as an uptick in migration—urban populations were projected to reach nearly 6 million by 2030. Displaced people numbered around 700,000, the large majority of which were refugees3. The economy remained dominated by agriculture and extractive industries, mainly oil. There were still high levels of poverty, accompanied by low human development. Chad was also designated a fragile and conflict-affected state.4 Moreover, in 2016, Chad was ranked 186th out of 188 in the UNDP HDI. Life expectancy at birth was 51.9 years, expected years of schooling was 7.3 years5, and mean years of schooling stood at just 2.3 years. Education attainment was highly unequal with people in the wealthiest quintile having an average of 6.7 years of schooling, compared with 1.0 for those in the poorest quintile. 6. Sector Context—Appraisal. Over the 2001-2013 period preceding the Project’s appraisal, there had been a 7 percent annual growth rate in public education expenditures. However, in 2010, public funding on education remained low with only 2.5 percent of GDP and 10.3 percent of the state budget allocated to education. The share of education expenditures being absorbed by primary education in 2010 was 38 percent, 90 percent of which was spent on wages and subsidies. Executed allocations to education were only about 60 percent and 78 percent of the established national poverty reduction strategy targets set for 2004-07 and 2008-09, respectively. 7. In 2013, the primary gross enrollment rate (GER) was 91 percent (and access to grade 1 was 120 percent) and the average net enrollment rate (NER) was between 51 percent and 65 percent (depending on the sources), reflecting a large proportion of out-of-school primary school age children and the low internal efficiency of the education sector in Chad. Overall cumulative survival rates within the primary cycle were extremely low (only 37 percent) completed the primary cycle) with the highest decline in survival rates observed in the earlier grades. Transition rates from primary to secondary were relatively high, but only resulted in a GER of 21 percent and 19 percent at the lower and upper secondary levels, respectively. The provision and enrollment of students in technical and vocational education and training (TVET) was marginal, with only 1.5 percent of upper secondary students enrolled in TVET. Enrollment in higher education was also limited: 20,349 in 2010, of which 72 percent were enrolled in public institutions. Gender and regional disparities increased as students progressed through the education system. The parity index in GER was 0.74 at the primary level, 0.44 at the lower secondary level, and 0.30 at the upper secondary level. In geographic terms, the southern regions were generally at an advantage. Most indicators in the Northern regions lagged substantially compared to the rest of the country and were generally below average rates observed in the Center, Eastern and Western regions. For example, primary education GER was around 95 percent in the South, while it varied between 20- 3 Based on the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) definition refugees are people who are recognized as refugees under the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees or its 1967 Protocol, the 1969 Organization of African Unity Convention Governing the Specific Aspects of Refugee Problems in Africa, people recognized as refugees in accordance with the UNHCR statute, people granted refugee-like humanitarian status, and people provided temporary protection. Asylum seekers— people who have applied for asylum or refugee status and who have not yet received a decision or who are registered as asylum seekers—are excluded. Country of asylum is the country where an asylum claim was filed and granted. 4 Chad has been listed among the world's most fragile states since the start of the Fragile State Index in 2005. 5 Expected years of schooling is defined as number of years of schooling that a child of school entrance age can expect to receive if prevailing patterns of age-specific enrollment rates persist throughout the child's life. Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2013). Page 6 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) 40 percent in the North. In addition, the probability of never having attended school was especially high in the Northern region. However, in the Southern regions, drop-out rates in primary schools were especially high, indicating that these regions also faced significant challenges. 8. Learning levels were low and pointed to the urgency of addressing quality issues. On the two Programme d’Analyse des Systèmes Educatifs (PASEC) assessments carried out in 2004 and 2010, no average student scores reached the 50 percent threshold and 1 in 4 students scored less than 10 percent. Similarly, on tests administered in the context of the Public Expenditure Tracking Survey (PETS)6 in a small sample of 88 schools located in seven regions, average scores were 23 percent and 32 percent in French and 53 percent and 59 percent in mathematics, for grade 2 and 4, respectively. Apart from PASEC, there were no standardized tools used to assess student learning at the national level. At the secondary and higher education levels, except for passing rates on the end-of-cycle exam, rigorous evidence on quality outcomes was lacking. 9. The quality of teaching in Chad was weakened by a high pupil-to-teacher ratio (PTR), inefficient allocation of teachers to schools (with PTRs varying between 43 and 120), a large share of teaching force with limited content knowledge and pedagogical skills, as well as the coexistence of inconsistent training and recruitment policies. At the primary level, about 3,000 individuals were trained as teachers on a yearly basis in one of the country’s 22 Teacher Training Colleges (Écoles Normales d’Instituteur, ENI), but budgetary constraints and high salary levels limited the number of qualified teachers that could be integrated into the civil service and deployed to schools to about 1,300. As a result, more than 13,000 qualified teachers, having recently completed ENI training, were awaiting integration. Confronted with a dearth of qualified teachers and increasing enrollments, parents and communities recruited community teachers (CTs) that were very poorly trained – if at all. CTs represented 74 percent of the teaching staff in primary public and community schools. At the upper secondary level, most teachers were qualified in their field of study but had rarely been trained as teachers and thus lacked fundamental pedagogical skills. In addition, there was high teacher absenteeism (between 11-29 percent, depending on year and location)7. Many of the challenges associated with the limited teaching time were temporary classrooms, CTs forced to participate in competing activities to supplement or substitute their income when confronted with delays and irregularities in the payment of their subsidies, weak contracting conditions, and infrequent visits by inspectors and pedagogical advisers. 10. In primary schools, textbook-to-student ratios (TSRs) varied between 1:5 for Science and 1:4 for French and Mathematics, while guide-to-teacher ratios (GTRs) varied between 1:7 in Science and 1:4 in Mathematics. In upper secondary, the situation was worse where TSRs varied between 1:50 and 1:20 across subject and specialized teaching and learning facilities such as computer rooms, laboratories, and libraries were extremely rare. The Education Sector Reform Project Phase 1 (PARSET1, P000567) supported the design of a new curriculum and textbooks for grades 1 to 6, but the printing and distribution needed to be supported and completed by drawing upon other sources of financing. 11. In 2011-12, the average pupil-to-classroom ratio (PTC) was 61 (often as high as 100 or 200) and 153 if restricted to permanent or semi-permanent classrooms. About 75 percent of the existing school buildings were temporary shelters made of poto-poto (adobe) or secko (millet straw) and approximately 10 percent buildings made of “hard” materials (masonry) were in a state of disrepair due to lack of proper maintenance. This often resulted in delayed school entry (after the end of the rainy season in October, millet needed to be dry before being used), as well as frequent cancellations and early closing due to heavy rains and strong winds. 6 The World Bank, “Primary Education in Chad: An Analysis using of the 2011-2012 PETS/SDI”. 7 The World Bank (upcoming), “Primary Education in Chad: An Analysis using of the 2011-2012 PETS/SDI”. Page 7 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) 12. Parents and communities played a crucial role in the country’s education system. In the context of the civil war that followed independence, Parents Associations (Associations des Parents d'Élèves, APEs) carried out the roles and responsibilities typically ascribed to the State given the latter’s inability to effectively support the education sector, especially as it pertained to setting up schools and managing the teaching force within the country. APEs were especially involved in: (i) the construction of new schools (called community schools); (ii) the recruitment and management of CTs working in both public and community schools; and (iii) the collection of student fees and provision of financial and in- kind support across all types of school. Primary education was delivered by three different types of schools— community, public, and private schools. In 2010-11, community schools enrolled over 33 percent of primary students. 13. Analysis of education statistics and a 2011 household survey8 data indicated that, to increase access, two main aspects needed attention: (i) creating new schools; and (ii) tackling the cost constraints faced by certain households, especially in the Northern regions. On the other hand, to increase survival rates, especially in Southern regions, priorities needed to be placed on increasing the textbook to student ratios (TSRs), percentage of permanent school buildings, the number of latrines, and tackling demand-side factors related to return to education and, to a lesser extent, the opportunity cost. 14. To address the pressing education issues, the GoC prepared an Interim Strategy for Education and Literacy (Stratégie Intérimaire pour l’Éducation et l’Alphabétisation, SIPEA) covering the period from 2013 to 2015. The SIPEA addressed both issues of quantity and quality indicating that, even though access goals had not yet been reached, the GoC needed to ensure that conditions for the effective delivery of a quality education were met. The SIPEA was developed in close consultation with civil society, relevant ministries, as well as the Financial and Technical Partners (FTP). The SIPEA was subsequently formally validated by the GoC and endorsed by the Local Education Group (LEG) in August 2012. The SIPEA focused on primary education, adult literacy, non-formal basic education, as well as capacity- building for planning, management, and M&E at all levels. It also included studies to identify strategic options for other subsectors and to prepare a Ten-Year Plan for the Development of Education and Literacy (Plan Décennal de Développement de l’Éducation et de l’Alphabétisation, PDDEA). 15. Sector Context—Additional Financing. At the time of the 2017 AF, the situation in the education sector had not markedly changed since the design of the parent Project.9 However, the major sector challenge that had emerged was the non-payment of CTs’ subsidies which was leading to a serious and hard-to-reverse deterioration of the primary education sector. The fiscal crisis and non-payment of CTs and civil servants had led to prolonged periods of school closures due to teacher strikes and/or high teacher absenteeism. Beginning in 2014, teacher strikes had the immediate consequence of closing more than 2,000 schools and reducing the total number of students enrolled by more than 350,000. The lack of resources and the GoC’s inability to pay salaries, even for civil servants in 2016, led to more strikes in all sectors countrywide. For school year 2016-17, classes in primary schools started only in mid-January 2017 although the official start of the school year was October 1, 2016. CTs went on strike along with their civil servant colleagues and delayed starting the school year until civil servants returned in January 2017. Many CTs returned to classrooms in January 2017—though most were still not receiving any subsidies. However, continued non-payment was likely to lead to additional strikes. The frequency and intensity of the strikes had also worsened with the crisis. There were many 8Troisième Enquête sur la Consommation et le Secteur Informel au Tchad—ECOSIT 3, 2011. 9 Key sector challenges were still numerous, including, inter alia: (i) large numbers of out of school children – half of primary school-age children were excluded from the system due to a combination of economic factors and limited classrooms; (ii) low learning outcomes in primary education – only 15.7 percent of sixth graders had sufficient competency in reading; (iii) high internal inefficiencies, including high dropout and repetition rates; and (iv) insufficient numbers of qualified and effective teachers. Page 8 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) worrying signs of declining indicators in the education sector. The 2016 statistical yearbook reported that the number of primary schools declined from 12,254 in 2013-14 to 10,564 in 2014-15, although it was unclear what constraints may have impacted the total school count. Further, the number of CTs appeared to have dropped by 12 percent between 2013-14 and 2014-15 from 27,969 to 24,699, while at the same time, the number of civil servants marginally increased from 15,521 to 16,173. Many communities relied solely on CTs, who were, and continue to be, the backbone of primary education, and with decreasing CTs and school closures, learning opportunities for school-aged children were seriously jeopardized. Theory of Change (Results Chain) 16. The long-term goal of the theory of change was to have more children in Chad completing basic education and reducing learning poverty. The overall theory of change assumed that—when children are prepared for learning and schools have learning-focused inputs, as well as effective teaching and skilled management10—children are more likely to achieve higher levels of educational attainment, thereby positively impacting learning poverty. The Project’s results chain is presented in Figure 1. It illustrates both the original Project design and the AF Project. The original Project development objective (PDO) and the revised PDO, along with supporting Project activities, were informed by international research that recognized that there is a global learning crisis and that the key ingredients of: (i) prepared learners; (ii) effective teaching; (iii) quality school inputs; and (iv) skilled managers are needed to effectively address the learning crisis. The mechanisms of change used in the parent Project and AF design were: (i) provision of infrastructure, school furniture, and teaching and learning materials in targeted regions (parent Project); (ii) provision of teacher training for CTs (initially in targeted regions and nationwide with the AF) and upper-secondary science teachers (in targeted regions); (iii) CT subsidies with an improved payment mechanism to ensure CTs and primary teachers remained in the classroom (initially in Component 1 as a limited activity and scaled up nationwide at the time of the AF); (iv) provision of deworming drugs to help ensure learners were healthy and able to attend school (AF design); and (iv) training for school principals and managers (in targeted regions). 10 2018 World Development Report (WDR). Page 9 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) Figure 1: Results Chain Component Activities/Inputs T Outputs Outcomes Sub-component 1.1 Quality Improved primary • Increase in number of Infrastructure and School Furniture— completion rates (MKE, MKO, water wells built (i) construction/ rehabilitation of T and M) (No revision during • Increase in number of infrastructure, provision of school AF) textbooks and teachers Original PDO: (i) furniture and (ii) training for guides Increased number additional to improve communities on classroom • Increased number of classrooms built or teaching and construction. contractualized CTs rehabilitated at primary level learning Sub-component 1.2 Teaching and (disaggregated by from project interventions conditions in Learning Material—printing and Component 1: gender) (MKE, MKO, T and M) (no distribution of textbooks and teachers primary and Improving • Increased number of revision during AF) upper secondary guides, and (ii) training to teachers, Teaching and teachers trained on using schools in principals and APEs on textbook Learning the new material Increased textbooks to management and usage selected areas Conditions in Sub-component 1.3 Teacher Training • Increased number of teacher ratio MKE, MKO, T and (ii) strenthen Primary students benefitting from and M) (no revision during the system to and Management--In-service training and development and establishment of direct interventions to AF) facilitate an M&E feedback to improve CT enhance learning evidence-based training (pre- and post-tests) (corporate indicator) Increase in number of decision making Sub-component 1.4 Community • Pre- & post-test for Level additional qualified teachers in the education Teachers Subsidy Payment Mechanism I and II designed and in schools resulting from sector (moved to AF Component 4) preplaced validated project interventions by Sub-component 1.4 Deworming all (disaggregated by primary primary school aged children and upper secondary schools) *Primary school Subcomponent 2.1: Teacher Training • Increased number of original regions—MKE, and Subsector Strategy upper secondary MKO, T and M Component 2: • In-service training for 300 science teachers and *Primary school AF focus—) Improving teachers and 90 inspectors inspectors/advisers *Secondary school region Teaching and Subcomponent 2.2: Teaching and training (N’Djamena—no revision Learning in Learning Material • Increased number of during AF) Upper-Schools • Support for establishment of 30 DRCs DRCs created and (N’Djamena) for teachers in 30 upper secondary equipped Revised AF PDO: Increase in teachers schools (i) to improve recruited or trained teaching and (Corporate Indicator- Subcomponent 3.1: Project • Improved database with learning nationwide—added Management linkages across units and conditions in during AF) Subcomponent 3.2 Monitoring and enhanced updating and primary schools Component 3: control protocols Evaluation Increase in the number of nationwide and Project • Support for studies and surveys • SDI completed days that the majority of (ii) improve Management, • Data gathering and reporting on • Community engagement schools throughout the teaching and Monitoring and project indicators survey completed country are closed due to CT learning Evaluation • Completion of impact strikes related to non- conditions in evaluation (CT mobile payment of CT subsidy upper secondary payment mechanism) (nationwide—added during schools in AF) selected areas New AF Subcomponent 4.1: Community • Increased number of CTs Component 4: Teachers’ Subsidies Payment receiving their subsidy Stabilizing • Conducting CT census payments regularly IE report made available Community • Development CT payment • Increased number of CTs (move to intermediate Teachers in receiving their subsidies level during AF) mechanism Schools and • Payment of CT subsidies by mobile payment Classrooms mechanism Page 10 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 17. The Project Development Objective was to: (i) improve teaching and learning conditions in primary and upper secondary schools in selected areas; and (ii) strengthen the system to facilitate evidence-based decision-making in the education sector. The Project’s ‘selected’ areas and interventions focused on six (out of 23) regions: Mandoul (M), Mayo Kebbi Est (MKE), Mayo Kebbi Ouest (MKO), Tandjilé (T), Hadjer Lamis (HL) and N’Djaména (N) .11 The PDO statement in the Project Appraisal Document (PAD) and the Grant Agreement were consistent. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 18. The five original PDO-level indicators were directly linked to the overarching objectives and were supplemented by 1212 intermediate results indicators (IRIs). Below is a description of each outcome and associated PDO-level indicators. • Outcome 1 was to measure improved teaching and learning conditions in primary schools through: (i) number of additional classrooms built or rehabilitated at the primary level resulting from Project interventions (in regions MKE, MKO,T and M); (ii) primary completion rate (in regions MKE, MKO, T and M); (iii) textbook-to-students ratio (TSR) in grades 3 to 6 (in regions MKE, MKO, T and M); and (iv) number of additional qualified13 teachers resulting from Project interventions. There were also six intermediate-level indicators linked to Outcome 1. • Outcome 2 was to measure improved teaching and learning conditions in upper secondary schools through: (i) number of additional qualified14 teachers resulting from Project interventions in region N. There were also two IRIs linked to Outcome 2. • Outcome 3 was to measure strengthened system for evidence-based decision making through: (i) the availability of an impact evaluation. There were also two IRIs linked to Outcome 3. Components 19. Component 1: Improving teaching and learning conditions in primary schools (Original allocation=US$9.1 million equivalent15; AF allocation=US$11.5 million equivalent; Total allocation=US$19.40 million equivalent; Actual expenditure=US$16.05 million equivalent). Component 1 aimed to: (i) support improvements in the teaching and learning conditions in selected primary schools through the provision of quality infrastructure and furniture, textbooks, and improvements in teacher development and management; (ii) identify possible efficiency gains for the education system; and (iii) strengthen the national strategies in each of the targeted subsectors of primary and upper secondary school. 11 Although these six regions were not the poorest or most disadvantaged in terms of education outcomes, they were selected because the most disadvantaged and poorest regions were already covered by other projects and PARSET2 took into consideration complementarity with other activities when targeting the regions. 12 Two of the IRIs were overarching Project indicators—direct Project beneficiaries (disaggregated by females) and gender parity index. 13 Related to Outcome 1, this indicator is defined by the number of primary CTs having completed the Level I and II in-service training (regions MKE, MKO, T, and M). 14 Related to Outcome 2, this indicator is defined by the number of upper secondary teachers having completed the pedagogical in- service training in region N—N’Djaména through the World Bank-funded program. 15 The original allocation for Component 1 was US$9.1 million equivalent. However, US$1.2 million equivalent was reallocated to a new Component 4 at the time of the AF. Page 11 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) • Subcomponent 1.1 Quality Infrastructure and School. This subcomponent supported, in four of the selected regions (MKE, MKO, T, and M16), community-led construction of 70 classrooms, rehabilitations of five classrooms, and constructions of latrines (separated by gender and for teachers). It also financed the construction of five water wells, as well as the provision of furniture for the new classrooms (centrally procured). Subcomponent 1.1 also supported training for eligible communities and parents’ associations (Association des Parents d'Élèves—APE) on simplified procurement and supervision of civil works. Moreover, it supported the establishment of school norms, infrastructure framework and guidelines for school buildings and promoted the emergence of a streamlined approach to managing the many interventions in the subsector. • Subcomponent 1.2 Teaching and Learning Material. Subcomponent 1.2 aimed to strengthen the system for managing the production, printing, distribution, and efficient usage of textbooks and teacher guides in primary schools while increasing the availability of teaching and learning material for grades 3 to 6 in selected regions (MKE, MKO, T, and M). Approximately 405,000 textbooks, 10,000 teacher guides, and 10,000 textbook management guides were to be printed and distributed across all the primary schools in the selected regions in order to bring the TSR to 1:2. School principals, teachers, and APEs were to be trained in the use and management of the materials and supplied with guides to this effect. Subcomponent 1.2 also aimed to support the development of a national strategy for textbooks which would define a framework to structure investments in the subsector in a manner that ensured sustainable increases in the availability and efficient use of teaching and learning materials. • Subcomponent 1.3 Teacher Training and Management aimed to assist the GoC in refining its strategy for teacher management and recruitment and its commitment to efficiently train and support community teachers (CTs)17 by: (i) targeted improvements to the quality and efficiency of the in-service training system18 for CTs through the establishment of a strong M&E feedback loop. The M&E was to enhance the quality and efficiency of the in-service training system by supporting the Teacher Training Department (Direction de la Formation des Enseignants—DFE) and in-service training centers (Centre de Formation Continue—CFCs) in the development and institutionalization of a pre- and post-test of CTs skills for the Level I training and in the review of the Level II post-test.19 Importantly, an ‘item bank’ for the pre- and post-tests were to be developed and/or revised by the DFE with the assistance of an international consultant; (ii) the upgrading teaching capacity of 1,620 CTs and strengthening of the central and decentralized authorities in the supervision and 16 The targeting of beneficiary schools in MKE, MKO, M and T were PARSET1 schools with the highest need for expansion to six permanent classrooms. 17 There are three levels of CTs (CT0, CT1, and CT2) and two levels of civil servant teachers (assistant teachers and teachers). Civil servant teachers are typically included in Government’s public payroll and have received some formal training in a teacher training institution. CT0s have no training and little education. CT1s are teachers who have received some training but need reinforcement. CT2s have received the same training as civil servants. CT0s have historically been supported solely by the community and receive no funding from the Government, while CT1 and CT2 are expected to receive subsidies. In May 2012, the Presidency decided via the decree No 05/PR/SGP/CEPEC/12 that all CT1s and CT2s would receive a monthly subsidy of 60,000 FCFA 18 Modules for the in-service training of CTs are structured in two levels. Level I training focuses on upgrading teachers’ content knowledge, includes some classroom management topics, and is delivered at the local in-service training centers (Centres de Formation Continue, CFCs) to eligible CT0 over a 45-days period. Level II training is delivered at a Teacher Training College (École Normale d’Instituteur—ENI) to eligible CT1 over two periods of 75 days. Completion of Level II training leads to a certification and the possibility of taking the official assistant teacher examination. 19 The pre-test would rank CTs according to baseline proficiency (the level of "trainability") in literacy (written and oral French) and numeracy and to select those who had the minimum necessary qualifications. The post-test would assess which skills were successfully transferred to teachers as a result of the training and lessons fed back to the DFE/DEF to inform improvements in the modules and delivery strategies employed at the CFC and ENI levels. Page 12 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) pedagogical guidance of teachers (including short development sessions) in the selected regions (MKE, MKO, T, and M); and (iii) the enhancement of the GoC’s contracting policy and regulatory framework. • Subcomponent 1.4: Community Teachers Subsidy Payment Mechanism aimed to support the implementation, on a pilot basis20, of an innovative payment mechanism of CT subsidies through mobile phones which could potentially lessen problems encountered with the existing payment mechanism (including long delays, abuse, and weak controls) and consequently lead to improved teacher motivation, reduced absenteeism, and overall greater cost-efficiency of the education system. The pilot activity provided support for: (i) a share of transfer fees and Short Message Service (SMS) fees; (ii) the rehabilitation of a room to accommodate the payment control center; (iii) goods and equipment; (iv) the design of a CT payment database and monitoring procedures; and (v) training costs for beneficiary teachers, principals, and APEs. The original design of the Project did not finance teacher salaries or subsidies. 20. Component 2: Improving teaching and learning in upper secondary schools (Original allocation=US$2 million equivalent; AF allocation=US$0.0 million equivalent; Total allocation=US$2.0 million equivalent; Actual expenditure=US$3.05 million equivalent). Component 2 aimed to: (i) support improvements in the teaching and learning conditions of upper secondary schools through the provision of teaching and learning materials and in-service training of teachers, with a special focus on scientific disciplines; (ii) assess the cost-effectiveness of the interventions; and (iii) inform the development of a strong subsector strategy in the first donor-led effort to support upper secondary schools in Chad. • Subcomponent 2.1: Teacher Training and Subsector Strategy. Subcomponent 2.1 aimed to upgrade the pedagogical and didactic skills of 300 science teachers in upper secondary schools of the region of N’Djamena and 90 inspectors through the design and delivery of an in-service training program and the distribution of science kits. The targeted disciplines were Mathematics, Physics, Chemistry, and Natural Sciences. A mechanism for evaluating the impact of the training on teachers’ in-class behaviors and students’ performance was to be put in place. Subcomponent 2.1 also aimed to support the Ministry of Secondary Education and Professional Training (Ministère des Enseignements et de la Formation Professionnelle Secondaires—MEFPS) in the development a medium-term upper secondary education strategy, establishing a priority in needs and suggesting cost-effective interventions. • Subcomponent 2.2: Teaching and learning material. Subcomponent 2.2 aimed to enhance teachers' access to a range of documentary resources to allow for improvements in teacher’s general and specific knowledge, planning and delivery of lessons and, ultimately, students’ performance. This would be achieved through the establishment of documentary resource centers (DRCs) for teachers, placing a special emphasis on scientific disciplines, in 30 upper secondary schools of N’Djamena. The DRCs would be of two different types: 15 conventional ones, endowed with books (paper), and 15 digital ones, endowed with tablets (digital). Upstream work was to be undertaken to identify relevant books and content and develop original content (digital and paper). 21. Component 3: Project Management, Monitoring and Evaluation (Original allocation=US$3.9 million equivalent; AF allocation=US$3.5 million equivalent; Total allocation=US$7.4 million equivalent; Actual expenditure=US$5.60 million equivalent). Component 3 aimed to support Project implementation by funding the Project Coordination Unit (PCU) and by strengthening monitoring, evaluation, and evidence-based management capacities and activities of the Ministry of National Education and Civic Promotion (Ministère de l'Education Nationale 20The pilot was to be conducted in five of the selected regions MKE, MKO, T, M and HL and targeted about 4,800 CTs at the primary level. Page 13 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) et de la Promotion Civique—MENPC)21 and MEFPS. The Project sought to support improvements to the M&E system in the sector (including the Education Management Information System, EMIS) and the Ministries’ capacity in evidence- based decision-making, using a hands-on approach and data collected to monitor Project activities. This included support to design/upgrade tools and institutional mechanisms (including coordination mechanism across the numerous data producing departments such as the Human Resource Department (Direction des Ressources Humaines, DRH), the Statistical and School Mapping Department (Direction de la Statistique et de la Carte Scolaire, DSCS), the Agency for Promoting Community Initiatives in Education (Agence pour la Promotion des Initiatives Communautaires en Education, APICED), the Teacher Training Department (Direction de la Formation des Enseignants, DFE), etc.) for collecting, compiling, controlling and using school-level data for human resource management, statistical and overall planning purposes. The Project also aimed to support: (i) improvements and expansion of the responsibilities and activities of inspectors, pedagogical advisers, and planning officers; (ii) implementation of the agreed upon M&E activities which would include collecting data to inform the main IE of the CTs payment mechanism as well as other evaluations (in- service training of CTs and upper secondary school teachers, DRCs, etc.); and (iii) provision of specific hands-on training in M&E (including IEs, surveys, data analysis, etc.) to relevant Ministry staff. B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets 22. The revised PDO was to improve teaching and learning conditions in primary schools nationwide and upper secondary schools in selected areas. The PDO in the Project Paper and the Grant Agreement were consistent. 23. The change in PDO was important because it captured the Project’s new emphasis on ensuring that the education system continued to functional despite the widespread fiscal crisis in the country by focusing on improving teaching and learning conditions in primary schools nationwide, primarily through subsidy payments to CTs and teacher training, while also maintaining the focus on supporting upper secondary schools as originally requested by the GoC. (See section on revised components for more details.) The AF introduced the payment of community teacher subsidies to ensure a stable learning environment and adequate learning conditions that were being disrupted by teacher strikes and absenteeism throughout the country. The offsetting change was to lower the focus on “strengthening the system to facilitate evidence-based decision making” given MENPC’s capacity constraints and urgent need to focus capacity on stabilizing the education system. The PDO was still to be achieved through the original Project activities that included school construction, teacher training, and instructional materials—in selected regions, and was further supported under the AF through the payment of CT subsidies nationwide and expanded training of CTs nationwide to incentivize CTs to return to the classroom, thereby improving the teaching and learning conditions. A deworming program was included to support the Government in its school-based national deworming program. • Outcome 1 was to measure improved teaching and learning conditions in primary schools nationwide. The nationwide focus of Outcome 1 was related to payment of CT subsidies and teacher training for primary school teachers. The specific nationwide outcome indicators were: (i) number of additional qualified22 teachers (in all regions) resulting from Project interventions; and (ii) number of days that the majority of schools throughout the country are closed due to CT strikes related to non-payment of CT subsidies. The other outcome 21 The MENPC was formerly known as the Ministry of Basic Education and Literacy. 22 Related to Outcome 1, this indicator is defined by the number of primary CTs having completed the Level I and/or II in-service training in all regions. (See Annex 8 for Level I and II requirements.) Page 14 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) indicators remained the same as those included in the original design of the Project with a focus on the original selected regions. • Outcome 2 remained unchanged and was to measure improved teaching and learning conditions in upper secondary schools in selected areas “number of additional qualified teachers resulting from Project interventions in region N”. Revised PDO Indicators 24. At the time of the June 23, 2017 AF, one new PDO indicator was added to measure the impact of the CTs subsidy payments supported under Component 4; and the indicator that supported evidence-based decision making “availability of Impact Evaluation (IE) reports” was moved to the intermediate indicators level to correspond with the modified PDO. (See Table 1 for details). Table 1: 2017 Additional Financing PDO Indicator Revisions Original PDO Indicators Additional Financing Revisions Original End AF End 2013 2017 Target Target 2018 2020 Number of additional classrooms built End-target date was modified to October 31, 2020 to 70 70 or rehabilitated at the primary level reflect the revised Project closing date. resulting from Project interventions. Primary completion rate (percentage) End-target increased and end target date modified to 40 43 October 31, 2020 to reflect the revised Project closing date. Availability of impact evaluation reports Indicator reclassified as an intermediate level 1 See Annex 6 (number) indicator. for details Textbooks-to-student ratio (reading and End-target date was modified to October 31, 2020, to 50 50 mathematics in Project areas) reflect the revised Project closing date. (percentage) Number of additional qualified teachers End-target was increased because the AF expanded 1,920 9,000 resulting from Project interventions support for teacher training across all regions of the (number) country and end-target date was modified to October 31, 2020 to reflect the revised Project closing date. New indication added “Number of days that the N/A 30 majority of schools throughout the country are closed due to CT strikes related to non-payment of CT subsidies.” The 2017 baseline was 90 days. Revised Components 25. The June 23, 2017, an IDA-financed AF US$50 million was approved to support the addition of Component 4: Community Teachers Subsidies Payments (Total AF US$35.0 million equivalent). The new Component 4 supported payment of CT subsidies as well the CT activities that were originally supported under sub-component 1.4 (US$1.2 million equivalent) of the original Project. Activities in the other components were not revised, but rather, scaled up. (See Annex 7 for detailed description of Component 4 and Annex 3 for actual Component 4 costs.) Page 15 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) Other Changes 26. Changes made at the time June 2017 AF. As indicated, the June 23, 2017 AF: (i) added IDA US$50 million equivalent to the original Project (US$15 million equivalent) (See Table 2 for details) as a stop-gap measure to prevent the complete collapse of the education system in Chad; (ii) modified the PDO; (iii) adjusted the results framework to reflect the AF Project’s focus on the CT payments and scaled up activities by adding one PDO level indicator and three intermediate level indicators (see Annex 6 for details); and (iv) modified the original Project’s components accordingly. Additionally, the AF Project: (i) extended the Project’s closing dated from October 31, 2018 to October 31, 2020; (ii) adjusted the disbursement estimates to take into account the AF Project’s activities and extended implementation period; (iii) modified the financial management arrangements by adding a new designated account (DA) dedicated to the payment of CTs subsidies under Component 4 and the hiring of an additional financial assistant to support the management of the new scaled up CT payments; and (iv) modified the implementation arrangements slightly to provide additional support to the APICED23 to implement the scaled up CT mobile payment mechanism and included the School Health Division (DSS, Division de la Santé Scolaire) to implement the deworming subcomponent which had several years of similar experience handling deworming programs. It should also be noted that because the AF was provided as a stop-gap (emergency) measure, the design did not include specific activities related to sustainability of CT subsidies. (See section IV. D. Risk to Development Outcome for more details on sustainability). Table 2: Revised Project Financing by Component Component Original Cost Revised Amount of AF Cost Total Project (US$ million) Original Financing (US$ million) Costs (US$ (Reallocation) million) Component 1: Improving teaching and 9.10 7.901 11.50 19.40 learning conditions in primary schools Component 2: Improving teaching and 2.00 2.00 0.00 2.00 learning conditions in upper secondary schools Component 3: Project Management, 3.90 3.90 3.50 7.40 Monitoring and Evaluation Component 4: Stabilizing Community 0.00 1.20 35.00 36.20 Teachers in Schools and Classrooms Total 15.00 15.00 50.00 65.00 1At the time of the additional financing, US$1.2 million equivalent were reallocated from Component 1 to Component 4 which corresponded to the Sub-component 1.4 community teacher’s subsidies activities moved to Component 4: Stabilizing Community Teachers in Schools and Classrooms. 27. Changes made at the time October 30, 2020 restructuring. The October 30, 2020 restructuring: (i) extended the Project’s closing date for 12 months from October 31, 2020 to October 31, 2021; (ii) adjusted the closing dates for all of the RF indicators to reflect the new closing date; (iii) added the required key corporate results education indicator (CRI) “number of teachers recruited or trained” 24 as a PDO indicator and “students benefiting from direct interventions to enhance learning” at the intermediate level under Component 1; and (iii) adjusted the disbursement forecast based on 23 The APICED structure was created to support the actions of Parents’ Associations that support community teachers (CTs). CTs represent approximately 65 percent of the teachers in Chad. 24 In the context of the Project, the CRI “number of teachers recruited or trained” was added as required by the World Bank with the exact wording as required by the Bank. This CRI was largely the same as the existing PDO level indicator “number of additional qualified teachers resulting from Project interventions” because the Project design did not call for recruiting tea chers. Therefore, the targets were the same for both indicators. Page 16 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) the extended closing date. The extension provided the necessary time to effectively implement the activities which had been delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, completion of: (i) the Service Delivery Indicator (SDI) survey and report; (ii) the teacher training activities for the final cohort of teachers in their programs; and (iii) continuation of payments for all targeted community teachers in Chad. Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change 28. The modifications did not affect the original theory of change, but rather scaled up important aspects of the original Project by focusing on payment of CT subsidies and teacher training. The AF Project also allowed for an increased focus on creating a stable learning environment in the context of teacher strikes and prolonged periods of teacher absenteeism due to nonpayment of CT’s subsidies. As indicated, beginning in 2014, teacher strikes had the immediate consequence of closing more than 2,000 schools and reducing the number of students enrolled by more than 350,000. The additional funds allowed for a full census of CTs in 2018 and resumption of the payment of CT subsidies. This was extremely important because, as indicated, CTs were, and continue to be, the backbone of the teaching workforce and they had not been paid since 2014. With the additional funds, there was a reopening of schools and a return to school of nearly 475,000 students between 2018 and 2020. The modification also enhanced the Project’s ability to further measure progress toward achievement of the PDO by helping ensure that teachers continued teaching and schools remained open with children in classrooms learning. Moreover, the increased focus on training related to content and pedagogy provided CTs with some of the needed skills to be able to teach more effectively once back in the classroom. All these were, and still are, critical to ensuring sustainability and longer-term impacts on improved learning. II. OUTCOME A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs 29. The original PDO was highly relevant to the country’s sectoral needs when the Project was developed. The objectives fit into the Government’s SIPEA covering the period from 2013 to 2015 which focused on addressing issues of quantity and quality of education with an emphasis on improving teaching and learning conditions, reducing disparities, and improving efficiency. This was done through increasing the availability of quality infrastructure and textbooks and by improving teacher management, effective learning time and completion rates. The SIPEA also opened opportunities for supporting upper secondary, as well as focusing on capacity-building for planning, management, and M&E at all levels. The Project’s objectives were relevant to the World Bank’s Interim Strategy Note (ISN) 2010-2012 which placed a strong emphasis on knowledge products and using operations to demonstrate innovative approaches and under Axis 2, supporting decentralized models for service delivery. 30. At the time of the 2017 AF, the PDO remained highly relevant. Adjustment in the PDO was necessary due to the fiscal crisis and the need to align the Project’s core emphasis on improving teaching and learning by focusing on creating a stable learning environment that had been diminished by reoccurring teacher strikes and high teacher absenteeism rates. The revised PDO remained highly relevant to the 2013-2015 SIPEA as well as the Plan Intérimaire de l’Education au Tchad (Intermediate Education Sector Plan for Chad, PIET 2018-2020), which aimed to address key access and quality challenges. The original financing and the AF Project were complementary to other external financing supporting the SIPEA, namely from the Global Partnership for Education (GPE) and the Educate a Child Qatari Foundation. Moreover, the objectives were fully aligned with the Country Partnership Framework (CPF) (2016-2020) (Report No. 95277-TD) which was based on a comprehensive Strategic Country Diagnostic (Report Number 96537) and supported the CPF Page 17 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) Engagement Theme 3—which focused on building human capital and reducing vulnerability and included the objective of improving rural access to, and quality of, education, particularly with a focus on parents and communities. Both the original Project and the 2017 AF Project were consistent with the World Bank’s twin goals of eliminating extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity. 31. The PDO remains fully aligned with the World Bank’s CPF 2016–2020 (Report Number 95277) and the CPF Engagement Theme 3 which was still effective at the time of Project closing in October 2021. The Project is also aligned with the Country Engagement Note (CEN FY23-FY24) which is based on the recently prepared comprehensive Systematic Country Diagnostic Update. The CEN focuses on three areas: (i) fragility and effective governance; (ii) inclusive human capital development; and (iii) resilient productivity and connectivity. The Project supported focus area 2, which aims at preserving and expanding human capital and by ensuring the demographic dividend is realized by expanding access to improved education, health, and social protection services. It also includes the objective of increasing access to better education and skills training. The Project is also fully aligned with the Sahel Transformation Compact “Transform and Build Better Lives: Scaling Up to Deliver in Sahel IDA 19”25 and the 2021 Nouakchott Declaration where the 2021 “Sahel Education White Paper” was discussed which both underscored that the quality of learning was one of the major issues on the HCI and recommended investing in education and leveraging technology to reach all children. The Project also remains fully aligned with Chad’s National Development Plan (NDP 2017–2021), particularly the fourth pillar which aims to improve human capital development by strengthening education and ensuring that all children receive a quality education and are able to read, write and master basic Mathematics. The PIET 2018–2020, includes the Project-aligned aims to improve access, equity, and quality of the education system. On the basis of the information provided above, the PDO was, and continues to be, Highly relevant today. Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome 32. The overall efficacy of the PDOs is rated as Substantial. Since the 2017 AF Project modified the PDO, this ICR carries out a split-evaluation (in two phases) of the Project’s efficacy performance. 33. The efficacy of the first phase (2013-2017), with the original design, and the second phase (2017-2020) with AF design are both rated Substantial. As indicated, the revised RF added the required CRIs “number of teachers recruited or trained”26 as a PDO-level indicator and “students benefiting from direct interventions to enhance learning” at the intermediate level under Component 1. At the time of Project closing, the targets for six of the six PDO indicators were met or exceeded, and 14 of the 16 IRIs were met or exceeded. For a detailed overview of activities undertaken and progress observed on each of the indicators over the life of the Project, please refer to the Key Outputs by Component section in Annex 1. 25 World Bank, September 2020. 26In the context of the Project, the CRI “number of teachers recruited or trained” was added as required by the World Bank with the exact wording that was required by the Bank. This CRI was largely the same as the existing PDO level indicator “number of additional qualified teachers resulting from Project interventions” because the Project design did not call for recruiting teachers. Therefore, the targets were the same for both indicators. Page 18 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) 34. There were two overarching Project indicators. The overarching IRI and mandatory Corporate Results indicator (CRI) was “number of direct Project beneficiaries (percent female)”. This IRI increased from 0 in 2013 to 1,082,000 in 2021, missing the target of 1,500,000. The percentage of females increased from 0 in 2013 to 42.9 percent in 2021, exceeding the target of 30 percent by 12.9 percentage points. The number of beneficiaries was increased at the time of the 2017 AF Project to account for the children that would benefit from the deworming program added under the AF Project. However, though the deworming program was initiated under the Project, it was not successfully completed because the vendor could not deliver the required quantity and quality of deworming drugs within the required timeframe stipulated in the bidding document and in the associated contract. This represented a health risk as well as a reputational risk for the GoC and the Project. As a result, the Project was unable to implement subcomponent 1.4 activities by Project closing which affected the achievement of this IRI. The IRI “increase in the gender parity index” increased from 74.0 percent in 2013 to 78.0 percent in 2021, thereby exceeding the target of 77.0 percent. The inclusion of this indicator was important for ensuring that girls and women’s participation in the sector and Project remained a focus particularly for a country like Chad where women are underrepresented. PHASE 1—JUNE 2013-JUNE 2017 (Pre-2017 AF) 35. Outcome 1: Improved teaching and learning conditions in primary schools in selected regions. Achievement of this objective is judged to be Substantial and was achieved through a combination of interventions that supported improved access, teaching and learning materials, teacher training, and development of a subsidy payment mechanism for primary teachers. 36. Between 2013-2017, there was notable progress on the outcomes of the Project with all PDO level indicators on track to be met by the original closing date of October 31, 2018. Unless otherwise noted, the indicators were continued from the original design to the AF design. The progress was as follows: • The number of additional classrooms built or rehabilitated at the primary level resulting from Project interventions (in regions MKE, MKO, T and M) had increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 63 in June 2017 and on schedule to complete the target of 70 by October 2018 as originally designed. Moreover, the classrooms had been equipped with ramps allowing students and staff with disabilities access to facilities, thus, promoting inclusive education. In addition, the distribution of furniture to the new classrooms had been completed. • The primary completion rate (in regions MKE, MKO, T, M, and HL) had already increased from the 2013 baseline of 37 percent to 50 percent by June 2017, thus exceeding the target of 40 percent by 10 percentage points. • The textbook-to-students ratio (for grades 3 to 6 in regions MKE, MKO, T and M) had increased from the 2013 baseline of 25 percent to 52 percent by October 2017, thereby exceeding the 2018 target of 50 percent (1:2). • The number of additional qualified teachers resulting from Project intervention (in regions MKE, MKO, T and M) increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 1,793 as of October 2017 or 93 percent of the original 2018 target of 1,920. This indicator was expanded to teachers nationwide and the end-target was increased to 9,000. 37. Achievement related to the intermediate level indicators was as follows: • The number of water wells built (selected schools in regions MKE, MKO, T, M) increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 3 in March of 2017 and was thus on track to meet the target of 5. • When the AF Project was approved in June 2017, the number of textbooks and teachers guides distributed (for grades 3-6; in regions MKE, MKO, T, M) was making progress towards its end-of-project target. The large contracts for textbooks and teachers’ guides had been signed, approved and printing had begun with distribution of the textbooks expected in September 2017. Page 19 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) • The number of teachers trained on using new material (for grades 3-6, in regions MKE, MKO, T, M) increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 2,000 as of July 2017. It should be noted that in March 2017, school visits revealed that school directors also needed training on school management and governance because they too, did not know how to manage school property. Therefore, the Project subsequently provided training for 4,000 school directors although a new indicator with specific targets was not formally added to the RF. • The pre-test and post-test for Level I and II training for primary CTs had been designed and validated by November 2016, thereby meeting the end-target. • The number of yearly (primary school) inspectors’ visits per schools, per year (non-cumulative; in regions MKE, MKO, T, M) increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 1 per year in July 2017 not yet reaching the target of 3 visits per year. • The number of primary level CTs receiving their subsidy payment through cell phone (in regions MKE, MKO, T, M, and HL) during Phase 1 did not progress. As indicated, this was because shortly after PARSET2 became effective, CTs stopped receiving their subsidies. This indicator was reformulated under the AF Project and additional AF resources were provided to pay CT subsidies. Additionally, the target was increased from 4,500 to 11,000. 38. Outcome 2: Improved teaching and learning conditions in upper secondary schools in selected regions. Achievement of this objective is judged to be substantial and was achieved through a combination of interventions that supported teacher training for upper secondary teacher that completed pedagogical in-service training, and training of inspectors and pedagogical advisors on a limited basis (only in region—N). As indicated, the outcome indicator for Outcome 2 was also the “number of additional teachers resulting from Project interventions” but specifically related to the target of 300 upper secondary teachers also being monitored by the IRI “number of upper secondary teachers and inspectors/pedagogical advisers trained (region N) (300 teachers and 90 inspectors)”. In October 2017, shortly after the AF Project approval, the Project had trained 300 upper secondary science teachers and 90 inspectors, thereby meeting the target for both the outcome and IRI indicators. The IRI “number of DRCs created and equipment (region N)” was making good progress. By December 2017, all 30 documentation centers had been built and the required generators to run the centers had been delivered. The tablets for the virtual documentation centers had been ordered and their implementation team was working on the internet connection. All Outcome 2 indicators and activities to support ongoing achievement were continued through the life of the Project in region N. 39. Outcome 3: Strengthen the system to facilitate evidence-based decision-making in the education sector. Achievement of this objective is judged to be Substantial and was ultimately achieved through a combination of interventions related to an impact evaluation of the CT mobile payment mechanism, SDI survey, and a study on the characteristics and performance of ENIs. These activities were to support capacity development within the Ministry of Education to improve M&E, thus leading to improved evidence-based decision making. This outcome was measured by the PDO indicator “availability of impact evaluation reports”. This indicator was specifically related to an impact evaluation of the delivery of CT payments via the mobile payment mechanism. As indicated, the payment of CT subsidies had been delayed due to the fiscal crisis and therefore, implementation had been delayed. This indicator was moved to the intermediate level at the time of the AF Project when the PDO was revised and was achieved by the end of the Project. The measure of the indicator was also adjusted. Since the AF covered subsidy payments to all CTs, it was not possible to conduct an impact evaluation with a proper control group. Therefore, the World Bank’s task team agreed with the MENPC that a comprehensive mobile phone payment satisfaction survey would instead be conducted. Activities related to the IRI “improved databases with linkages across units and enhanced updating and control protocols” were also progressing. The data collection overall framework (Master Plan) had been developed with a relational scheme for Page 20 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) the different departments27 within the MENPC, tools had been designed and capacity building/training activities for the directorates responsible for implementing the master plan had begun. The IRI “sample-based survey on service delivery completed” was moving forward and the procurement process for hiring a firm was also underway. PHASE 2—JUNE 2017-OCTOBER 2021 (Post 2017 AF and New PDO) 40. Outcome 1: Improved teaching and learning conditions in primary schools. Achievement of Outcome 1 is judged to be Substantial during Phase 2 of the Project. The achievements related to Outcome 1 were still to be measured through a combination of interventions that supported improved access, teaching and learning materials, teacher training, and development of a subsidy payment mechanism for primary teachers. The original PDO indicators used to measure Outcome 1 remained the same. However, there were two PDO indicators and one IRI that were added at the time of the AF Project. These were: (i) number of days that the majority of schools throughout the country are closed due to CT strikes related to non-payment of CT subsidies (PDO-level indicator); (ii) number of teachers recruited or training (PDO-level and World Bank Core Indicator) (iii) number of “contractualized” CTs (disaggregated by gender) (IRI indicator); (iv) results collected from citizen feedback survey on CT payments (IRI indicator) and (v) “students benefiting from direct interventions to enhance learning” (IRI and World Bank Core Indicator). 41. Between June 2017-2021, the Project’s PDO-level indicators linked to Outcome 1 were either met or exceeded. The progress was as follows: 42. Classroom construction for improved teaching and learning conditions in primary schools. The PDO indicator “number of additional classrooms built or rehabilitated at the primary level resulting from Project interventions (in regions MKE, MKO, T and M)“ had increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 70 in October 2018, thereby meeting the final end-target. All classrooms had ramps to facilitate access by those with certain disabilities and were fully furnished. In addition, 70 latrines were constructed, and 10 classrooms in five schools were rehabilitated. These activities were completed using the community-based approach to civil works that was found to be successfully implemented, at lower costs, during the PARSET1 (P000527). The IRI-level indicator related to this activity was “number of water wells built (selected schools in regions MKE, MKO, T, M)” which increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 5 in October 2018 again, meeting the end-target. Related to community construction, in November 2017, the MENPC signed a partnership protocol with the Directorate of Environmental Assessments and the Fight Against Pollution and Nuisances for training awareness in environmental management of communities in the upkeep and maintenance of PARSET2 school infrastructure. This allowed the local hygiene and sanitation committees to better understand the internationalization of environmental and social aspects and were used to ensure proper PARSET2 compliance with environmental and social safeguards standards and protocols. 43. The PDO indicator “primary completion rate ( in regions MKE, MKO, T, M, and HL)” increased from the 2013 baseline of 37 percent to 63.94 percent in October 2021, exceeding the revised AF Project end-target of 43 percent by 20.94 percentage points. The Project’s support to the selected regions in the form of: (i) CT subsidies, (ii) teacher training; (iii) textbooks; and (iv) training for school principals to improve their school management all contributed to the improved primary completion rates in the targeted regions. Related to this PDO indicator was the IRI “students benefiting from direct interventions to enhance learning” which increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 233,160 in 2021, thus meeting the end-target of 233,160. In addition, between 2014 and 2019, primary school learning performance improved in Chad. According to the 2014 and 2019 PASEC reports, even though Chad ranks last among the countries that participated in 27 The departments included: DSCS, DEF, DFE, APICED, and DRH. Page 21 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) this assessment, there has been an improvement in the average scores of the tests taken by students in Reading and Mathematics. Average scores in Mathematics have increased by more than 30 points, from 491.3 to 522.4 between 2014 and 2019. In Reading, average scores increased from 480.4 in 2014 to 508.5 in 2019. While it is difficult to fully attribute the improved PASEC scores directly to the Project, it is clear that CTs returned to their teaching duties because they were receiving their subsides and children returned to schools, and as such, the teaching and learning process was successfully restored in Chad. 44. Provision of learning materials for improved teaching and learning conditions in primary schools. The PDO indicator “textbook-to-students ratio (for grades 3 to 6 in regions MKE, MKO, T and M)” increased from the 2013 baseline of 25 percent to 52 percent (or 1:2) in October 2021, thereby exceeding the end-target of 50 percent (1:2). Related to this PDO indicator was the IRI the “number of textbooks and teachers guides distributed ( for grades 3-6; in regions MKE, MKO, T, M”) which increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 475,751 (465,751 textbooks and 10,000 teachers guides) by September 2017, thus exceeding the end-target of 415,000. Cost savings observed under the Project made it possible to purchase more textbooks and teachers guides with the same resources due to the Project’s support for the printing and distribution of textbooks in the four Project selected regions and directly attributable to the Project. In addition, the Project supported the printing and distribution of 10,000 maintenance guides for textbook management. 45. Some of the important Project activities that supported the achievement of the indicators used to measure the provision of learning materials for improved teaching and learning conditions in primary schools were : (i) the preparation of implementation policies and documents for National Textbook Policy and ToRs relating to the monitoring of textbook management, as well as those related to development of training modules for secondary school textbooks; and (ii) the design and development of curricula, programs which are part of the curriculum, and pedagogical guides for all grades from primary to the end of high school and the copyrights belonging to the GoC. For quality assurance, all documents were produced under the leadership of the Centre National des Curricula. An additional aspect to this achievement is the fact that the Project was able to finance the development of curricula for secondary schools for all subjects (not just the Sciences) which was beyond the original scope of the Project. The Project also supported development of in-service teacher training28 modules for the Centers for In-Service Training (CDFC) and Primary Education Pedagogical Inspectorate (Inspection pedagogique de l education primaire—IPEPs) pedagogical facilitators based the needs of teachers that were identified by field visits. 46. Teacher training for improved teaching and learning conditions. The PDO indicator “number of additional qualified teachers resulting from Project intervention (all regions)” increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 10,965 in October 2021, thus exceeding the AF Project’s revised end-target of 9,000 by 1,965 teachers (21.8 percent increase). It should be noted that the PDO indicator “number of teachers recruited or trained (disaggregated by number of females) (World Bank Core Indicator) which was added at the time of the 2020 restructuring is equivalent to the PDO indicator “additional qualified teachers resulting from Project intervention” with the exception of reporting on the actual numbers of female students. The number teachers recruited or trained increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 10,965, thus surpassing the end-target of 9,000. Moreover, the number of females increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 2,083 in 2021, thus exceeding the end-target of 1,800 by 283 (15.5 percent increase). As indicated, school visits revealed that 28In-service training is the responsibility of the Primary Education Pedagogical Inspectorate (Inspection pedagogique de l education primaire, IPEPs), which have 344 local offices. The trainings are designed and delivered by 72 Department Centers for In-Service Training (CDFC) and 856 Pedagogical Animation Sectors (SAP). Training activities mainly come in the form of pedagogical days, which are periodically organized at the local level by various MENPC departments including those responsible for pedagogical inspection and in- service training. The trainings are designed to address, in a very short time (1–2 days), pedagogical shortcomings that have been locally identified. Page 22 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) school directors also needed training on school management and governance because they too, did not know how to manage school property. By Project closing, 4,080 principals had been trained in good governance and management in the Project areas. In addition, the Project supported training for 169 trainers in the use of the new textbooks and teaching. 47. The first IRI related to teacher training was “number of teachers trained on using new material (for grades 3-6, in all regions) increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 10,000 in October 2021, achieving the October 2021 end-target of 10,000. It is important to note that the 10,000 included CT1s and CT2s that were trained at the Teacher Training Colleges (École Normale d’Instituteur—ENIs) and they received a monthly scholarship payment through the mobile payment mechanism. The Project design called for teachers in training to receive monthly scholarship payments rather than subsidy payments while they were in training. The mobile payment mechanism was important for ensuring that community teacher did not receive both scholarship and subsidy payments and improved governance and efficiency within the system by not double paying CTs. 48. The second IRI related to teacher training was “number of yearly inspectors’ visits per schools, per year (non- cumulative; regions MKE, MKO, T, M)” which increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 3 per year in July 2017 meeting the target of 3 per year. Inspectors provided pedagogical training during the Journees Pedagogiques (pedagogical training days) and subsequently visited schools once per quarter to work with teachers and review and observe their classroom practice. 49. A third IRI associated with teacher training was “pre-test and post-test for Level I and II training for primary CTs designed and validated” (yes/no). As previously indicated, by November 2016, the tests had been designed and validated, thereby meeting the end-target. Achievement of this indicator was important because CTs (1 and 2) were selected for the training based on a pre-test. The pre-test was used to rank CTs according to a baseline proficiency (i.e., level of trainability) in literacy (French) and numeracy. Upon completion of the training, CTs were given a post-test to assess which skills had been successfully transferred to teachers as a result of the training. The post-test included an in- classroom practice and observation component. Through the process of developing the pre- and post-test, the MENPC was able to develop a standardized item bank for the tests and create an M&E feedback loop that the Ministry is using to improve the quality and efficiency of in-service training. It should be noted that the National Curriculum Center (Centre National des curricula—CNC) reviewed the item bank for quality and to ensure that it was relevant to the training programs. In addition, the data from the tests, has been used to establish a robust database of teacher profiles for better teacher management. Moreover, once teachers completed the Level I and II training and took the post-test, CT1s became CT2s and CT2s became contractual teachers. (See Annex 8 for teacher categories and levels of training teacher.) 50. The fourth IRI “number of “contractualized” CTs (CT2s) (disaggregated by gender)” (added during the AF Project) increased from the 2017 baseline of 0 to 3,000 in 2021, thus meeting the 2012 end-target of 3,000. The percentage of females increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 17.3 percent, thus missing the 2021 end-target of 25.0 percent by 7.7 percentage points. Although 3,000 teachers were contractualized, there were only 2,837 that received their subsidy payments which was due to attrition or the provision of incorrect mobile telephone numbers. The contractualization of CT2s was viewed as a form of incentivizing CT2s and fostering improved quality of education because of the increased level of training they received, the on-going commitment by the Government to provide subsidies, and CT2s are eligible to apply to become civil servants. (See Annex 8) Page 23 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) 51. In support of teacher training for improved teaching and learning conditions, the Project conducted a detailed assessment29of the needs and capacity of the teacher training institutions ( École Normale d’Instituteur—ENIs) and Écoles Normales d’Instituteurs bilingues—ENIBs) to deliver training. The finding from these assessments provided an in-depth diagnostic of all the challenges faced by the ENIBs and ENIs. However, in summary the assessment found that: (i) the foundational training that teachers received related to the Certificat élémentaire de fin d’études normales (CEFEN diploma30) needed to be strengthened because it was not clear to what extent the ENIB prepared its graduates to be effective primary teachers; and (ii) the ENIB system was in strong need of reform and reinforcement due to uneven, and for the most part, inadequate funding that has led to many ENIBs not having their own buildings, premises in poor condition with half being overcrowded, possessing inadequate sanitary facilities and lacking electricity, furniture, equipment and pedagogical materials, and computer equipment and internet connection. The assessment also found that in-service training31 was limited and heavily reliant upon development partner financing and tended to focus on extracts of the curriculum, covering aspects such as learning objectives and associated teaching-learning activities. The many findings of this assessment have been integrated into the design the Chad Improving Learning Outcomes Project (CILOP) (P175803). 52. CT subsidies for improved teaching and learning conditions in primary schools. The PDO indicator” number of days that the majority of schools throughout the country are closed due to CT strikes related to non-payment of CT subsidies” decreased from the 2017 baseline of 90 days to 30 days in 2021, thus meeting the end-target of 30 days. Important to this achievement was the fact that the CT mobile payment mechanism was developed, implemented and CTs were paid their subsidies throughout the AF Project period. The CTs received four years of payments rather than the original three years because the Project had additional resources to allocate to these payments and the Project was extended for one more year. Once the Project began providing the subsidies, the CTs did not go on strike. The civil servants did strike at the beginning of 2020-21 school year which led to schools closing for several days, however not because of CTs strikes which was a major achievement observed under the Project. The IRI related to this PDO indicator was “number of CTs receiving their subsidy payments through cell phone (all regions) which increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 10,913 in 2021 (99.2 percent achieved), slightly missing the AF increased end-target of 11,000. To identify the teachers that were eligible for the subsides, the Project also supported an extensive census of community teachers which was an innovative activity in Chad. The census led to the development of a database of all CTs and for the first time CTs were given a unique identifier in the database which has allowed for more efficiency in the payments of subsidies and salaries without duplication. The Project also supported the development and implementation of an electronic payment platform within APICED for managing the payment platform and signed contracts with two mobile phone companies (Tigo and Airtel) to make the CT subsidy and salary payments. Moreover, the Project supported the 29 Évaluation des Capacités d’Accueil et de Formation des Écoles Normales d’Instituteurs Bilingues (ENIB) et des Écoles Normales Supérieures (ENS) de la République du Tchad. Rapport Technique (2020). This assessment was conducted in 20 of the 22 ENIB – Écoles Normales d'Instituteurs bilingues and in the 4 ENS – Écoles Normales Supérieures of Chad. Its objectives were to: (i) analyze existing arrangements for initial training of primary and secondary school teachers; (ii) to assess the effectiveness and quality of the institutions and (iii) propose possible solutions and the associated costs. The report presented the results of the subject tests (in five disciplines) offered to samples of the following populations: (i) ENIB student teachers, (ii) ENS student teachers and (iii) ENS student inspectors and advisers. We also offered language tests (French and Standard Arabic) to teachers at these same institutions. 30 The CEFEN diploma is needed to formally qualify as a primary school teacher. 31 In-service training is the responsibility of the Primary Education Pedagogical Inspectorate ( Inspection pedagogique de l education primaire, IPEPs), which have 344 local offices. The trainings are designed and delivered by 72 Department Centers for In-Service Training (CDFC) and 856 Pedagogical Animation Sectors (SAP). Training activities mainly come in the form of pedagogical days, which are periodically organized at the local level by various MENPC departments including those responsible for pedagogical inspection and in- service training. The trainings are designed to address, in a very short time (1–2 days), pedagogical shortcomings that have been locally identified Page 24 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) establishment of a robust Grievance Redress Mechanism (GRM)32 to field complaints from CTs that did not receive payments as well as to verify that all paid teachers were eligible to receive their payments. 53. The IRI “availability of impact evaluation reports” was met with the completion of the CT payments satisfactory survey.33 As indicated, it was not possible to conduct an impact evaluation with a proper control group. As a result, the World Bank agreed with the MENPC that a comprehensive mobile phone payment satisfaction survey would be conducted which was completed in 2021. Overall, the survey showed that 79.2 percent of CTs were satisfied with the mobile phone payment system, specifically 74.8 percent were satisfied with the Airtel network and 86 percent with the MOOV Africa (formerly Tigo) network. The main reason for satisfaction was the speed of transactions, the coverage of the network, the solvency of the payment agents at the time of withdrawal of funds, and the “secret and confidential” nature of the mobile payment method compared to the old payment system. The main reasons for dissatisfaction were largely the quality and coverage of the telephone network, the distance some CTs had to travel to access the network, and, in some cases, additional levies were required by the payment agents for funds withdrawals. Despite these challenges, the new system is developed and fully operational which is a substantial achievement realized under the Project. Suggestions made by the CTs for improving the quality of the services provided through the system included, but not limited to: (i) extending the coverage of the system; (ii) improving the quality of the telephone networks; (iii) improving the electronic transfer system; and (iv) creating opportunities for paid savings via the system. Finally, the IRI “community engagement—satisfaction with payment of CTs” was achieved. The community engagement survey was incorporated into the CT satisfaction survey because the communities, through the parents’ associations which support from the APICED, are responsible for supporting CTs. The communities were also satisfied with the mobile payment system of CTs specifically because the CTs did not strike and schools remained open. 54. Outcome 2: Improved teaching and learning conditions in upper secondary schools in selected region. Achievement of this objective is judged to be Substantial. The achievements for Outcome 2 were still to be measured through a combination of interventions that supported teacher training for upper secondary teacher through in-service training, and training of inspectors and pedagogical advisors on a limited basis (only in region N). The original PDO indicators used to measure Outcome 2 remained the same. The PDO-level indicator used to measure the achievement of Outcome 2 was also the “number of additional teachers resulting from Project interventions”, but specifically related to the target of 300 upper secondary teachers (included in the overall total of 10,965 above) which was also being monitored by the IRI “number of upper secondary teachers and inspectors/pedagogical advisers trained (300 teachers and 90 inspectors)”. As previously indicated, in October 2017, shortly after the AF Project approval, the Project had trained all 300 upper secondary school teachers in the targeted disciplines of mathematics, physics, chemistry and natural sciences and 90 inspectors, thereby meeting the 2021 target of 390 for the outcome and IRI indicator. Upon completion of the training, the 90 inspectors were active, throughout the life of the Project, in supporting the science teachers in the classroom with their content and pedagogical skills. The high schools received 150 science kits and consumables for use by the newly trained teachers. Overall, with Project support, 23 existing high schools benefitted from science kits and consumables and teacher training. The Project also initiated a robust awareness campaign (media, workshops, conferences etc.) across 10 districts in N’Djaména on the importance of science education. Finally, the Project used the upper secondary training activities to feed into the pre- and post-test item bank to expand the item bank beyond the CT information. 32 The GRM was a committee with a team of 12 people led by the Government. The team included people from the Ministry of National Education and Civics Promotion (MENPC), the national federation of parents, and the association of CTs. 33 “Evaluation of Mobile Phone Payment Satisfaction of Community Teachers Support under PARSET2”, October 2021. The objective of the survey was to assess the level of satisfaction with the newly developed Project supported mobile phone payment mechanisms. The target population were CTs supported by PARSE2 (11,700). A representative sample of 2,000 were selected to participate in the survey. Page 25 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) 55. The IRI “number of DRCs created and equipped (region N)” increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 31 (15 physical and 16 virtual), thus exceeding the 2021 target of 30 by 1 DRC. The 15 physical/classical DRC were created through the acquisition of: (i) books; (ii) generators; (iii) bookshelves; (iv) tables and chairs; (v) tablets; (vi) servers; and (vii) internet installation. Regarding the 16 virtual DRCs, the Project supported the procurement of computer equipment (i.e., tablets, Network-attached storage—NAS34 servers, software and digital documentary collections) and digitization of textbooks. Finally, the Project supported capacity building activities for all library managers which included pedagogical use of the tools, as well as a sustainability workshop for school heads, municipal officials, student representatives and librarians. As a result of the Project, virtual libraries are now active in Chad and this represents a substantial achievement observed under the Project. 56. Although the PDO was modified at the time of the AF Project, the operation still focused on strengthen the system to facilitate evidence-based decision-making in the education sector. This was done by monitoring the following IRIs: (i) The IRI “sample-based survey on service delivery completed)” was met with the completion of the SDI survey. The SDI survey was conducted in both rural and urban areas and data was collected from a representative sample of 531 public, community and private primary schools in the country’s 23 provinces. For student data, the survey collected data at CM1 level (grade 5) in reading (French and Arabic) and Mathematics. In addition, the survey gathered data on a sample of teachers to measure their absence rates and assess their knowledge as well as 1,051 households (i.e., families of two students per school) to collect information on the socio-demographic characteristics. The results of the survey showed continuing challenges for service delivery of primary education with teacher absence rates still high, principals having problems with administrative and pedagogical monitoring, availability of school infrastructure still inadequate, and student learning outcomes low. It is important to note that the SDI was conducted between April 24 to June 5, 2021 (post COVID-19 disruptions to children’s education), and therefore, the findings also provide window into possible leaning losses related to the pandemic. These important findings will be used to inform the GoC’s new Education Sector Strategy (2023-2032). (ii) The IRI “improved database with linkages across units and enhanced updating and control protocols” was met. As indicated, the overall data collection framework (master plan) was developed with a relational scheme for the different departments35 within the MENPC. The “Schema Directeur de I’Informatique” (relational scheme for the difference departments) that will be used to govern the MENPC’s information system was adopted and functional. In addition to the system, the Project provided 418 computers for the system network and 418 motorbikes for data collection and verification activities. The system is now being used to produces education statistics for the MENPC. Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating 57. The overall Project efficacy rating is Substantial. For Phase 1 (2013-2017) the rating is Substantial and is justified because the original PDO indicators and IRIs were all making substantial progress—some of the indicators were actually achieved shortly after the AF Project was approved. This was indicated by the fact that: (i) 63 additional classrooms out of 70 had been built or rehabilitated at the primary level in MKE, MKO, T and M (ii) primary completion rate (in regions 34 An NAS server is a file-level computer data storage server connected to a computer network providing data access to a heterogeneous group of clients. NAS is specialized for serving files either by its hardware, software, or configuration. The primary purpose of a NAS is to provide centralized and shared storage for digital files. 35 The departments included: DSCS, DEF, DFE, APICED, and DRH. Page 26 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) MKE, MKO, T, M, and HL) had already exceeding their end-of-Project target; (iii) textbooks were being provided and had already exceeded the original target while large contracts for new textbooks and teachers’ guides had been signed, approved and printing had begun; (iv) the number of qualified teachers resulting from Project intervention had been achieved at 93 percent of the original target; (v) support for school directors through training on school management and governance had been added because of need and demand; and (vi) the pre- and post-tests for mechanism for Level 1 and II teachers had been designed and validated. In addition, all of the original indicators were continued under the AF with one of the PDO level indicators moved to the intermediate indicator level. 58. For the Phase 2 (2017-2019), the efficacy is also judged to be Substantial. This is justified by the analysis presented above. All six of the PDO indicators were met or exceeded, and 14 of the 16 IRIs were met or exceeded. While considerable challenges remain for the education system in Chad, the Project played a key role in laying a foundation for “realizing educations promise” (WBR 2018) through investments the key components of: (i) school inputs with the provision of improved classrooms, textbooks, furniture, equipment and internet connectivity at the targeted primary and upper secondary schools; (ii) school management with capacity building and training of school principals and inspectors at the targeted primary and upper secondary schools; and (iii) teachers with a nationwide focus on teacher training and payment of teacher subsidies that were extremely important in preventing teacher strikes and teacher absenteeism. As previously indicated, in 2014, more than 2,000 schools were closed reducing the number of students by more than 350,000. The additional funds from PARSET2, allowed for a 2018 census of CTs and the resumption of CT subsidy payments. Thus, between 2018 and 2020, schools reopened and nearly 475,000 students returned to school. The Project also contributed to the development and institutionalization of a mobile payment mechanism for teachers’ subsidies/salaries that is largely judged, by the teachers, to be efficient and effective. The Project also laid the foundation for further horizontal integration of the data systems within the MENPC. In addition, the Project continued to support strengthening the system to facilitate evidenced-based decision making in the education sector, which was part of the original PDO, through its support of the SDI, mobile teacher payment survey, ENIBs/ENS survey; and the census of primary school teachers including CTs—all important studies that have provided data for decision-making within the MENPC, as well as making an important contribution to the new MENPC Education Sector Strategy and the design of the new World Bank-supported CILOP (P175803). 59. There is plausible evidence that the Project, and especially the funding of CTs’ subsidies, contributed to put the primary education system of Chad back on track and maintain skill acquisition in primary education, which altogether contributed to improve primary completion rates in Chad. PASEC results suggest that learning outcomes of students evolved differently depending on the extent to which students were exposed to the massive school closures that weakened the education system in 2014. Specifically, average performance in mathematics and reading, for students that started primary school during project implementation exceed the one of students that were already in the system when the Project started. Comparing PASEC results of students attending primary grade 2 in 2019 —s who therefore started primary in 2017/2018 when the payment of CTs’ subsidies resumed—to results of students already enrolled in primary grade 2 in 2014—reveals that average scores in mathematics for the first set of students is, on average, higher by 30 points. Specifically, average scores in mathematics, of primary grade 2 students, rose from 491.3 in 2014 to 522.4 in 2019. The same pattern is observed for performance with student’s reading ability in early primary, with average scores rising from 480.4 in 2014 to 508.5 in 2019. Learning losses that resulted from the school closures are likely to have been important. In fact, for mathematics specifically, students that were completing primary school in 2019—for whom entry in primary school coincides with the Project launch in 2013—underperformed when compared to those who were completing primary school in 2014, when interventions supported by the Project began. The former group of students were the most exposed to the adverse effects of school closures between 2014 and 2017 and had plausibly incurred the largest learning losses. The story is completely different for the latter group of students who, with the exception of Page 27 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) repeaters, either progressed to secondary school or dropped out when the education system collapsed in 2014. Overall, these patterns further underscore that the non-payment of CTs’ subsidies constituted a substantial threat to the education system in Chad. While it is difficult to fully attribute the aforementioned trends and results directly or solely to the Project, it is clear that CTs returned to their teaching duties because they were receiving their subsides and children returned to schools, and as such, the teaching and learning process was successfully restored in Chad. C. EFFICIENCY Assessment of Efficiency and Rating 60. The overall efficiency of the Project is rated Substantial. This section summarizes the economic and financial analysis of the PARSET 2 and examines the: (i) economic rationale for investing in Chad’s education sector; (ii) internal efficiency of the education sector in Chad, as well as the evolution of access rates throughout the system; and (iii) results of the Project’s cost-benefit analysis at the project implementation completion stage. The detailed economic and financial analysis is presented in Annex 4. 61. Higher levels of educational attainment are strongly associated with higher projected earnings in Chad, particularly for women. At the national level, an additional year of schooling yields, on average, a 7 percent increase in earnings, while women earn 11 percent more, on average, for each additional year of schooling. There are also signs that PARSET2 interventions’ have contributed to the recovery of the education sector in Chad, which had been severely undermined by the Government’s inability to pay and retain teachers and CTs. The Government’s inability to honor these payments had ultimately led to high teacher absenteeism rates, low teacher morale, and widespread and prolonged school closures in the country. Total actual enrolment in primary significantly rose nationwide, especially after 2017 when the AF Project was approved and began to be implemented. In addition, in part as a result of the Project, gross enrolment rates and completion rates at the primary school level rose substantially in the targeted regions. In contrast, access and completion rates have stalled in lower secondary, which was out of the direct scope of the Project. 62. The cost-benefit analysis carried out at project completion confirms that the Project is likely to have generated substantial benefits and to have generated high rates of return. Both the internal rates of return (IRR) and net present value (NPV) estimates for the baseline scenario show that the Project is economically viable at the end of project implementation based on the actual project beneficiaries reached and actual costs incurred. The benefits/cost ratio (BCR), NPV and IRR over a 25-year horizon are respectively 4.14, US$ 202.4 million, and 25 percent . Although some benefits have not been fully quantified, the NPV of the quantified benefits are larger than the NPV of costs, which strongly supports both the viability and efficiency of investments undertaken under the Project. Table 3: Baseline Scenario Net Present Value in millions of USD and Internal Rate of Return Baseline: 46 percent of graduates get a paid job Over 25 years Components 1 and 4 IRR 25% Discounted cost (present value of costs) $64.4 Project Cost $43.4 Education costs (foregone earnings and expenses) $21 Present value of incremental benefits $266.8 Page 28 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) NPV (with 2014 as the base year) $202.4 Benefit/cost ratio 4.14 63. The same analysis was carried out under a pessimistic scenario which assumes that only 20 percent of graduates are able to secure a paid job. This scenario accounts for economic conditions that are subjected to unpredictable shocks exactly like the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Even in such a case, the proposed Project remains economically justified. Over a 25-year horizon, the net present value (NPV) of interventions related to Components 1 and 4 is estimated at US$ 51.6 million. The IRR associated with this NPV is 11 percent, and the associated Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) is 1.8. Thus, even if benefits were overstated under the baseline scenario, the net return from the interventions that contributed to improving teaching and learning conditions and reducing teacher absenteeism in primary school remain positive. Table 4: Sensitivity Analysis (pessimistic) Net Present Value in millions of USD and Internal Rate of Return Pessimistic: 20 percent of graduates get a paid job Over 25 years Components 1 and 4 IRR 11% Discounted cost (present value of costs) $64.4 Project Cost $43.4 Education costs (foregone earnings and expenses) $21 Present value of incremental benefits $116 NPV (with 2014 as the base year) $51.6 Benefit/cost ratio 1.8 64. The Project’s fine-tuned design and the judicious use of resources made available for interventions contributed to the strong efficiency of the investments undertaken. Project activities financed a number of critical activities within the education sector and targeted project resources to the areas of the country with the greatest need. The use of funds made available for the project was adequately monitored over the course of the project implementation as evidenced by the unaudited interim financial reports (IFRs) and external financial audits that were submitted to the World Bank on a timely manner. Though the vast majority of the Project’s activities were successfully implemented by the Project’s closing date, and most of the envisaged outputs and outcome targets were either met or exceeded by the operation’s closing date—with the notable exception of the deworming program— some important activities, such as the purchase of science toolkits to beneficiary teachers, were initially delayed due to weak procurement performance by the GoC. Despite these initial challenges, overall implementation efficiency was Substantial and positively and significantly contributed to the successful attainment of nearly all of the Project’s envisaged outputs and outcomes. D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING 65. The overall outcome is Satisfactory based on High Relevance of Objectives, Substantial Efficacy for both phases of the Project, and Substantial Efficiency. Page 29 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) Table 5. Overall Outcome Rating Based on Split Evaluation Objectives after 2017 Rating Dimension Original Objective AF Relevance of Objectives High Efficacy Objective 1: Improved teaching and learning conditions in Substantial Substantial primary schools in selected regions Objective 2: Improved teaching and learning conditions in upper Substantial Substantial secondary schools in selected regions Objective 3: Strengthen the system to facilitate evidence-based Substantial N/A decision-making in the education sector Overall Efficacy Substantial Substantial Efficiency Substantial Outcome Rating Satisfactory Satisfactory Outcome Rating Value 5 5 Amount Disbursed (US$, millions) 4.13 64.35 Disbursement (%) 6.0% 94.0% Total Weights 5*(0.06)+ 5*(.94)= ) =).3+4.7 = 5.0 Overall Outcome Rating Satisfactory (5.0) E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) Gender 66. There were no specific activities within the Project related to gender. However, SDI 2020 analysis provided needed data to develop gender-related activities for the CILOP. The 2021 SDI showed gender and regional inequalities are, and continue to be, important issues in Chad. In primary education for example, gender parity is 0.75, and worsens as students’ progress through the education system (standing at 0.44 in lower secondary). The share of primary-school age children who are out of school varies from 23 percent in N’Djaména to 85 percent in the Lake region. The dropout rates are higher for girls (33 percent) than for boys (29 percent) and about 51 percent of primary-school age girls had never attended school compared with 47 percent for boys. Based on these findings, the new World Bank-supported CILOP (P175803) in Chad will include incentives to reduce the risk that girls will drop out and teacher training modules will include gender sensitization initiatives and strategies. Community awareness-raising activities to combat gender stereotypes will also be supported by the new Project. Together these activities aim to sensitize the community and school stakeholders on the risks of gender-based violence (GBV), and to prevent and address GBV in schools. Outreach activities will specifically focus on girls. Institutional Strengthening 67. The PARSET2 institutional strengthening has been multi-faceted: • Teacher training. As previously indicated, the institutional strengthening related to teacher training were: (i) development of a pre-test which made it possible to determine the baseline proficiency of the CTs and the post-test which provided valuable information on what was learned, as well as how the training could be further improved; (ii) creation of a unique identifier for teachers and a database for determining teachers Page 30 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) training needs; (iii) development of in-service teacher training modules for the CDFC and IPEPs; and (iv) the detailed needs assessment of the ENIs and ENIBs. • Curriculum development and textbooks. The Project supported the design and development of curricula, programs and pedagogical guides for all grades from primary to the end of high school and the copyrights belong to the GoC. As previously noted, the Project also supported the preparation of implementation policies and documents for National Textbook Policy and TDRs relating to the monitoring of textbook management, as well as those related to development of training modules for secondary school textbooks. • Ministry of National Education and Civic Promotion. The institutional strengthening of the MENPC had been substantial. First, the MENPC, with technical assistance (TA) support provided under the Project, was able to establish a mobile payment mechanism with the needed system platform. Second, the MENPC capacity for curricula development and textbook production was strengthened. Third, the strengthened capacity to conduct studies and assessment, again with TA support, was seen with the completion of the: (i) ENI/ENIB study; (ii) SDI survey; (iii) mobile payment teacher survey; (iv) nationwide survey of CTs that led to the development of a teacher databased with the first unique teacher identifiers established; and (v) EMIS improvements. Finally, capacity was strengthened with regard to procurement, financial management, and environmental and social safeguards—especially related to the partnership protocol with DEELCPN. Mobilizing Private Sector Financing Not Applicable. Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity 68. While the PARSET2 did not include any specific impact measurement of poverty reduction and shared prosperity, its objectives were meant to contribute to human capital formation by supporting the improvement of conditions of the primary and upper-secondary sub-sectors. As previously indicated, Chad still needs to make considerable progress in its human capital development to fully realize its economic potential and allow the country to further reduce poverty and increase shared prosperity. In 2020, Chad ranked 173 out of 174 according to the Human Capital Index (HCI)36 which measures the amount of human capital that a child born today can expect to attain by age 18 through five indicators37. This means that a child born in Chad today can only hope to achieve 30 percent of their potential at age 18 when compared to a child with complete education and full health. In education, the average child completes 5.3 years of schooling and due to the low quality of education in Chad, this translates into only 2.8 years of schooling adjusted for learning. Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts Not Applicable. 36World Bank Human Capital Index Report, October 2020. 37The five indicators are: the probability of survival to age five, a child’s expected years of schooling, harmonized test scores as a measure of quality of learning, adult survival rate (fraction of 15-year-olds that will survive to age 60), and the proportion of children who are not stunted). Page 31 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION 69. Project Financing. Project preparation began in 2013 after the Ministers endorsed the country’s new National Development Plan and the PRAP which paved the way for the resumption of a dialogue with the World Bank and the IMF around the HIPC. The original Project was financed by an International Development Association (IDA) grant in the amount of US$15 million and an AF IDA Grant in the amount of US$50 million—for a total Project funding of US$60 million. The Investment Project Financing (IPF) funding modality was appropriate because the IPF allowed for provision of the needed technical assistance and institutional strengthening schemes necessary to build the capacity within the Government and to implement the activities that would contribute to laying the needed foundation for the education system in Chad. The 2017 AF provided additional resources needed to scale-up activities nationwide, by financing: (i) teachers’ subsidies that were necessary to stop teacher strikes and ensure the continuity of teaching and learning in Chad; and (ii) teacher training in order to upgrade teachers’ content knowledge and pedagogical skills. 70. Evidence Based Design The theory of change behind the Project was sound and the selection of key targets was appropriate, for each stage of the Project. The original PDO was focused and highly appropriate and appropriately pitched for the Government’s capacity, as well as the development status of the education system in Chad. The revised AF PDO was appropriately adjusted to take into consideration the broadened nationwide focus of the AF Project. The original results framework, and the slightly modified AF Project results framework, was developed to measure achievements related to improvements in the teaching and learning conditions using measurable indicators available at the time of Project design. The technical design of the Project drew from globally recognized approaches with the needed components to improving learning conditions. The component activities, as inputs to achieve the PDO, were appropriate and selected in collaboration with the Government. The Project design included a comprehensive M&E design and provided the monitoring data to guide implementation and make implementation adjustments when necessary. (See additional information under the M&E section.) The targeted Project beneficiaries were highly appropriate for the needs of Chad. The original Project and the AF were both prepared with broad support from technical experts at the World Bank, and in close collaboration with the Development Partners working in Chad. 71. Implementation Arrangements. The MENPC was the implementing agency for both the original and AF Projects. The MENPC established a Project Steering Committee (PSC) under its umbrella that was chaired by the Secretarie General with representatives from the Ministry of Economy, Planning, and International Cooperation (MEPCI), the Ministry of Finance and Budget (MFB), the National Federation of Parents Association (Federation Nationale des Associations de Parent e’Eleves au Tchad—FENAPET), teachers unions and all technical units involved in the Project. At the Project management level, the Project was overseen by the MENPC Education Projects Department (Direction des Projets Éducation—DPE). Implementation was coordinated by a Project coordinating unit (PCU) overseen by the DPE and located within the MENPC. The PCU was responsible for the coordination and supervision of the civil works component, procurement, financial management (FM), communications, compliance with safeguards policies and M&E. The Regional Education Departments (Direction Régionale de l’Éducation Nationale, DREN) were responsible for the regular supervision of the Project in the field and on providing quarterly reports to the PCU. Technical implementation of the Project was the responsibility of each concerned department within the MENPC. The responsibility for the construction/rehabilitation was fully delegated to the parents’ association (Association des Parents d'Élèves). The implementation arrangements for the 2017 AF Project remained the same except for the new deworming activity which was managed by the School Heal Division (Division Santé Scolaire—DSS) under the School Feeding, Health and Nutrition Page 32 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) Directorate (Direction Alimentation, Santé, et Nutrition Scolaires—DASNS) of the MENPC. The DSS was created under the original PARSET1 Project (P000527) which had a school health component and was headed by a medical doctor who was seconded to the MENPC from the Ministry of Public Health (Ministère de la Santé Publique, MSP). 72. Risks and Mitigation Measures. Key risks and appropriate mitigation measures were identified during preparation for both the original Project and the AF. The original Project’s overall risk was rated Substantial because of challenges in the form of: (i) capacity and resource constraints of the MENPC; (ii) financial management and the potential for misuse of funds, particular when channeling funds to the local level; and (iii) high turnover and frequent restructuring of Ministries with vacant positions unfilled which could cause delays in implementation. The overall risk at the time of the AF Project was adjusted to High, largely due to the unstable Government financial situation when the AF Project was prepared, appraised, and approved. The risk rating related to technical capacity was upgraded to High to reflect the more complex design associated with the CT payments. Sustainability risks were also inherent in the payment of subsidies to teachers because of Chad’s fiscal outlook which strongly hinged on oil price recovery and a favorable climate for agriculture. It was recognized that there was a strong will on the part of Government to take over the payments, but given the Government’s constrained fiscal condition, it was difficult to assess how quickly the Government would be able to fully take over the CT payments. B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION 73. Project implementation progress (IP) was rated Moderately satisfactory (MS) and Satisfactory (S) throughout most of Project implementation, except for a six-month period between December 2015 and June 2016 when the IP was rated Moderately Unsatisfactory (MU). There were various factors that played a role in the challenges and successes of the Project. 74. Factors subject to Government and/or implementing entities control. Overall, the success and achievements of the Project are due to the work of the PCU and other implementing units within MENPC that were able to implement the Project despite capacity constraints and learning on-the-job. The delays and downgrading of the IP to MU between December 2015 and June 2016 was largely attributed to challenges with procurement of textbooks, teachers guides, classroom and latrine construction, and equipment (motorbikes and tablets) for pedagogical support. Procurement of these items depended on final Presidential signature, which was ultimately obtained by the PCU, thus leading to the successful completion of the procurement process and significant improvement in the Project’s disbursement rates. This was the case in several World Bank-supported operations. The Government also experienced delays in implementation of CT subsidy payments that were expected to start in 2018 but only started in 2019. This was largely due to the innovate aspect of design that required: (i) conducting the census of CTs; (ii) validating the list of CTs; (iii) selection of eligible beneficiaries; (iv) establishing the payment platform; and (v) recruiting the mobile companies. However, these were all necessary steps to build a sustainable and mainstreamed mechanism to efficiently and transparently pay CTs. Ultimately, all were achieved and CTs successfully received payments for four years. 75. The deworming subcomponent 1.4 (added at the time of the AF) was to include approximately 1.5 million school-aged children (in school children and their out-of-school peers) and the procurement process was to utilize International Competitive Bidding. The drug procurement process was initiated in March 2018 and a contract in the amount of XAF 601,248,285 was awarded to ARMADA and signed in May 2018 with a planned delivery time of 90 days. An advance payment of 30 percent of the contract amount (XAF 180,374,486) was paid to the supplier against a bank guarantee of equal amount. The following issues were noted: (i) questionable drug quality: contradictory monitoring reports conducted by MENPC and MoH departments on the quality of drugs in partial delivery; (ii) deficiencies in Page 33 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) procurement: deficiencies noted in the evaluation of bids and the recommendation of the award of the contract during the ex-post review by the World Bank team; and (iii) problems in monitoring the execution and management of the contract with more than two years of wait for the drug delivery and contract not extended as well as proposal for partial reception of the drugs by the General State Inspection which was not foreseen in the contract. After consultations with the Client and internal World Bank consultations, the World Bank requested that the Client take action on July 21, 2021 as the procurement was out of date. This included termination for Non-Performance since the supplier was not able to deliver all the drugs in accordance with the contract for more than 25 months. Subsequently, the case has been under investigation with INT since June 2021, though no additional information is currently available. 76. Factors subject to World Bank control. The Project benefitted from the fact that there was a consistent World Bank team—both local and international staff members—which supported implementation throughout the operation’s life. This allowed the team to interact regularly with the PCU, MENPC and other Government implementation units, thus facilitating the successful implementation of the Project. In 2016, there was a formal mid-term reviews (MTR) of the Project. At that time the decision was made to support the Government with the AF and expand the Project’s support to cover teacher subsidies and training on a nationwide basis. Despite the World Bank’s concerted effort to work closely with the MENPC to find alternative vendors to provide high quality deworming pills to children in Chad—even going so far as organizing working sessions with the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Onchocerciasis Control Program— ultimately the deworming activity was not successfully supported under the Project. 77. Exogenous factors. The exogenous factor that impacted the original Project was largely Chad’s fiscal challenges stemming from the sharp decrease in domestic revenues that had been precipitated by the worldwide drop in oil prices. This shortfall in fiscal resources had prevented the Government from ensuring adequate delivery of basic social services in the country, leading to long periods of strikes by civil servant teachers and CTs due to the Government’s inability to pay teachers or CTs. As indicated, this led to the 2016-2017 school year being delayed by three months, as well as the slow implementation of the originally Project’s CT activities. With the additional Project resources specifically focused on CT subsidies, the majority of the original and AF Project’s activities were implemented as designed. 78. In March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic began to have an impact on the implementation of the PARSET2. The teacher training activities for the final 4,500 CT1s which had been admitted to the ENIB had to be delayed as well as the SDI activities because of travel restrictions and school closures. This led to the Government’s request to extend the Project’s closing date from October 31, 2020 to October 31, 2021. As indicated, by October 31, 2021, all project- supported activities were successfully completed except for the deworming activities. It is interesting to note that during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, the PARSET2 was able to provide support to the Government’s emergency education response plan (Plan National de Contingence pour la Preparation et la Riposte a l'Epidemie de la Maladie a Coronavirus COVID-19). The activities related to: (i) the development of information tools adapted to the school environment and the supervision of educational activities for the resumption of classes; (ii) communication and sensitization of stakeholders and partners of the education system in order to ensure the continuity of distance training programs; and (iii) the production and development of distance learning content (in Arabic and French) for different educational levels and disciplines. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) Page 34 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) M&E Design 79. The links between the inputs, outputs, and outcomes and the PDO were sound (as shown in Figure 1). The original PDO was clearly specified at appraisal and the AF PDO was appropriately modified based on the expanded focus of the Project. Both the original and AF PDO-level indicators and intermediate outcome indicators were defined at appraisal for the original and modified at the time of the AF to measure Project outcomes. The M&E design was robust and developed to monitor and report on progress toward meeting the targets of the PDO and intermediate indicators in the Results Framework (RF) through regular routine monitoring and reporting by the PCU. The Project also included multiple surveys to: (i) understand the impact of the teacher mobile payment system; (ii) assess the needs of ENIs/ENIBs; (iii) gather census data on CTs; and (iv) gather service delivery information through an SDI. The M&E design also included the development of a pre- and post-test for the training of CTs to improve the availability of CT training data and to develop a feedback loop to improve training. Finally, the M&E design included efforts to improve the education management information system (EMIS) within the MENPC through horizontal integration of data gathering and systems within the various department MENPC. M&E Implementation 80. Reporting of data for the RF indicators was done throughout the life of the Project. The selected performance indicators were tracked regularly, and the RF was updated on a timely basis for supervision missions including the MTRs. As indicated above all of the studies identified were conducted with the results available disseminated to throughout the MENPC and the donor community. The EMIS systems was also further improved. During the life of the Project the activities related to EMIS were: (i) development of the overall M&E framework connecting all of the relevant agencies and departments within the GoC; (ii) development of the Information Technology Master Plan (Schema Directeur de I’informatique) tools; (iii) operationalization of the tool at the central and decentralized levels; and (iv) training and capacity development on the use of the tool for the heads of divisions, heads of services of directorates and planners of the Regional Delegations of Education and Youth (DREJ), the Departmental Inspectorates of National Education and Civic Promotion (DENPC), and Pedagogical Inspectorates of Primary Education (IPEP). By Project closing, approximately 446 pedagogical facilitators and planners had been trained on the database features and data input. With the support of the World Bank’s Poverty Global Practice, the Project also used the Interactive Beneficiary Monitoring (IBM) system to closely monitor the payment of CTs and to ensure these payments were received effectively in full and in a timely manner. Because the IBM was capable of identifying any challenges or bottlenecks with the payment of CTs—the Project was able to effectively rectify these challenges during the course of project implementation. M&E Utilization 81. Data was made available regularly for the results framework and was used to inform the analysis of the ICR . In addition, results from the studies were used to provide more reliable data that on CTs, the mobile CT payment mechanism, ENIs/ENIBs, and the status of educational service delivery nationwide. As indicated, the wealth of data that was gathered related to CTs (pre- and post-text results and census data) has been used to: (i) develop a robust and accurate database of the number of CTs nationwide with unique identifier for each CT; and (ii) provide valuable data on teacher training that is being feed back into the teacher training activities. The results from teacher survey on the mobile payment mechanism is currently being used to improve the system in collaboration with the telephone companies where possible. Finally, the results of the ENI/ENIB survey and the SDI have been used to: (i) inform the development of the new Bank supported CILOP (P175803) that will support the quality of learning through improvements in teacher training; (ii) inform other donor supported Projects; and (iii) the development of the Government’s next education sector plan. Page 35 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) The EMIS system is being utilized both at the central and regional levels to systematically gather and input data more accurate data. These data are all being used by the MENPC to advance education policy dialog in Chad. Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E 82. Based on the analysis above, the overall rating for M&E is High. B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE 83. Safeguards. The original Project was rated as Category ‘B’ partial assessment and OP/BP 4.01 “Environment Assessment” was triggered due to the potential adverse environmental and social impacts associated with Component 1 construction classrooms with impacts that were likely to be small-scale and site specific. The Project also triggered, OP/BP 4.11 Physical and Cultural Resources because the Project was expected to carry out excavations for classroom construction. An updated Environmental Social Management Framework (ESMF) was prepared and disclosed in Chad on April 30, 2013 and the Bank’s Infoshop on May 1, 2013. Under the 2017 AF Project, the safeguards remained the same— the new activities did not trigger any new safeguards. Safeguards were monitored consistently during Project implementation and Implementation Status Reports (ISRs) were consistently rated moderately satisfactory (MS) and satisfactory (S) with one exception in December 2016 when the ISR downgraded safeguards to Moderately Unsatisfactory. The downgrade was related to the fact that individual construction of classrooms did not initially follow the required screening procedures for environmental assessment. The World Bank worked with the Government on increasing compliance and six months later the rating was upgraded to MS because the action plan for compliance was being closely followed, thus rectifying the earlier challenges identified. As indicated, an important aspect of the safeguards activities was the signing of a partnership protocol with the DEELCPN in 2018 for environmental and social safeguards training and awareness raising for maintaining communities’ infrastructure which was used throughout implementation. 84. Grievance Redress Mechanism. In 2018, a Grievance Redress Mechanism (GRM) was established and was particularly important for the payment of subsidies to CTs. A GRM committee was established by the Government, with the help of the World Bank’s task team, that comprised a team of 12 people from various departments of MENPC, the national federation of parents. In addition, an association of CTs was set up to: (i) verify that all paid teachers are eligible to receive this monetary payment; and (ii) examine the requests from CTs who have not been appropriately paid. CTs from all the regions had access to the GRM and they could file their grievances/complaints at the district and/or regional levels. The grievances were in turn transmitted to the GRM committee for review and action. During the Project period, approximately 6,100 complaints from CTs across the country were received, reviewed, and addressed by the GRM committee. 85. Financial management. As indicated, during the Project period the financial management arrangements remained largely the same. However, at the time of the AF Project approval, a new designated account was established dedicated to the payment of the CT subsidies under Component 4 and the PCU also added an FM assistant specifically to support the APICED in the management of the scaled-up CTs’ payments. FM performance rating remained satisfactory and moderately satisfactory throughout the life of the Project with the exception of one period—March 2021 when FM was downgraded to moderately unsatisfactory. The FM rating was downgraded because: (i) the World Bank’s recommendations related to the implementation of an electronic platform that integrated security parameters into the management of the CT database had not been addressed; (ii) there was inadequate fixed assets management; (iii) CT payments made to inactive accounts needed to be retrieved; and (iv) funds advanced to the deworming supplier need to Page 36 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) be recovered. Although these challenges had been identified at the time of Project closing the PCU had submitted unaudited interim financial reports (IFRs) of an acceptable quality. Moreover, the required audits were submitted to the World Bank in accordance with the Financing Agreement and over the Project period, the auditors’ opinions were unqualified (clean). The MENPC’s integrated financial management information system called TOM2PRO was used for the Project. Capacity development workshops were conducted by the World Bank’s FM specialists for the PCU FM staff. The total Project financing was US$65,000,000 equivalent with a total disbursement of approximately US$64,350,000 or 99 percent of all available Project funds. There were US$0.65 million of unused funds. 86. Procurement. The World Bank’s procurement team conducted regular procurement performance rating assessment missions (PRAMS) and as a result consistently rated Project procurement as Moderately Satisfactory and Satisfactory in the Project ISRs. World Bank procurement staff provided training to the PCU to ensure compliance with the procurement guidelines. The PCU migration to the World Bank’s Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement (STEP) took place in 2018 with procurement activities being included in the STEP platform. Procurement plans were updated and submitted to the World Bank as required albeit late at times. The World Bank team also continuously monitored the situation related to the deworming medication contract. C. BANK PERFORMANCE Quality at Entry 87. The Project preparation team ensured that the Project design was closely aligned with the Government’s 2013-2015 SIPEA as well as the PIET 2018-2020. The parent Project’s design, and key indicators were completely aligned with the PDO. The design took into consideration the recommendations from peer reviewers and internationally recognized research that recognizes that school inputs, better school management and better prepared teachers were three of the four critical components for student learning (WDR 2018). The preparation of the 2017 AF Project expanded the focus of the Project on teachers and financed teacher subsidy payments to help prevent teacher strikes and school closures as well as expanding teacher training to bolster teacher content knowledge and pedagogical skills. The AF Project was aligned with the World Bank’s CPF 2016–2020 with the Sahel Transformation Compact “Transform and Build Better Lives: Scaling Up to Deliver in Sahel IDA 19”, Chad’s NDP 2017–2021 and PIET 2018–2020. The preparation team, for the parent Project and subsequent AF Project, identified the appropriate risks, incorporated design features to mitigate them, and included the relevant technical specialists to support Project development. Preparation for the parent Project and the AF was a consultative process with Government. Quality of Supervision 88. Supervision missions were semi-annually, staffed with education specialists, fiduciary and safeguards staff as well as consultants with needed technical expertise. The Project team was actively engaged in supporting the Government in its efforts to implement the Project. Whenever implementation challenges arose, the World Bank team worked with the Government to find appropriate solutions that would not compromise the integrity of the design. The supervision teams consistently reported on FM, procurement and safeguards progress during supervision missions and worked with the PCU and other implementation agencies, to build their capacity in these areas. As indicated above, safeguards compliance was monitored regularly. The missions also systematically documented Project progress in aide memoires, back-to-office reports, and ISRs, all of which kept the World Bank management informed of progress and provided the foundation for the ICR analysis. Key to the Project’s achievements was the consistent supervision by the World Bank team that had the needed technical expertise to support the various implementation units. Moreover, the Page 37 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) World Bank’s willingness to respond to the Government’s request for the AF and the Project extension due to COVID- 19 led to the completion of the Project as designed and the institutionalization of many Project activities. The World Bank’s steadfast and proactive implementation support to the GoC ensured that the successful achievement of the vast majority of the Project’s envisaged outputs and outcomes. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance 89. Based on the sub-ratings of Bank performance at entry (Satisfactory), Bank Performance during supervision (Satisfactory), and the overall Project’s Overall Outcome rating (Satisfactory), the overall Bank Performance rating is Satisfactory. D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 90. The risk to sustaining the development outcome is Modest. This rating is based on the fact that Project activities have been institutionalized as indicated above. The original capacity risks identified were mitigated through the institutional strengthening within the MENPC to work with communities on school and classroom construction, provide textbooks and teachers guides, identify teacher training needs at the primary and secondary level, and deliver training within ENIs/ENIBs. Capacity has been developed to conduct studies and evaluations to better monitor the sector, particularly related to teachers. This has fed into improvements in data systems and data being used to develop teacher training policies as well as the Government’s new education sector strategy. These all contribute to the likelihood of PARSET2 interventions being sustained in Project support areas. As indicated, the AF support for payment of CT subsidies was meant to be a stop-gap measure to prevent the collapse of the education system, with Government to continue its support of subsidies after Project closing. However, the new CILOP (P175803) does include activities to improve the payment of CT subsidies through the provision of equitable operating grants to public primary schools to strengthen the management and financing of CTs and public primary schools. Moreover, the CILOP will build on the foundation laid by this Project by supporting: (i) improvements in the quality of teaching, (ii) access to better facilities; (iii) provision of textbooks and learning materials; and (iii) mother tongue instruction. . 91. The overarching risks to development outcomes are the possibility for political and economic instability in Chad. Firstly, political instability, vulnerability to terrorist attacks, security risks, and limited governance remain substantial challenges in Chad. In April 2021, it was announced that the former president had succumbed to wounds sustained on the battlefield and a Conseil Militaire de Transition (CMT) was established by military authorities to conduct the transition. The CMT outlined an 18-month transition period that during which an inclusive national dialogue would take place and then revise the constitution and presidential elections. An OP07.30 was conducted in April 2021 and recommended the full resumption of all existing operations and new lending, which became effective on June 25, 2021. A new transitional government led by a Prime Minister was established to ensure the continuity of the functioning of state institutions which is still operating. Secondly, the macroeconomic risks for Chad are substantial. Chad is still subject to fiscal challenges related to potential low levels of oil revenue, high-debt stress, and limited liquidity. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted Chad's economic recovery. In 2020, GDP contracted by 1 percent and the poverty rate increased by 1 percentage point to 42 percent. Although GDP grew at a rate of 1.76 percent in 2021, the continuing uncertain nature of the pandemic's duration, the Government spending on the military and regional security, and fiscal liquidity constraints create the possibility for challenges going forward that limit the budget space for the social sector and the Government’s ability to deliver basic social services. In addition, there are more than 500,000 refugees Page 38 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) (mainly from Sudan and the Central African Republic) and more than 400,000 internally displaced persons38 in Chad which puts additional pressure on the education system which is already under resourced. To mitigate the fiscal risk, the donor community has engaged in policy dialog with the government on strengthen the prioritization of financing of the social sector in general and education in particular. V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 92. Lesson 1. Support of Community Teachers (CTs) is an important lever in ensuring that schools remain open, thus allowing access to primary education—particularly in rural communities which are less served by qualified teachers—to be maintained and/or increased. The Government's decision to stop paying CTs subsidies in July 2014 had the immediate consequence of closing more than 2,000 schools and reducing the number of students by more than 350,000. As indicated, the additional funds from PARSET2, allowed in 2018 to make the census of CTs and resume the payment of MCs subsidies. Thus, between 2018 and 2020, there was a reopening of schools and a return to school of nearly 475,000 students. Going forward, the Government will need to decide on the best measures for sustaining the subsidy payments—perhaps through use of performance-based funding mechanisms which will be implemented under the new Bank-support CILOP P175803. 93. Lesson 2. The use of mobile payment systems is a viable method to provide timely payment to CTs—and other providers operating in the education sector—particularly when these beneficiaries are scattered across vast geographical areas as was the case in Chad under this Project. The Project was instrumental in establishing the mobile payment system that included the development of a database of all CTs with unique identifiers that has allowed for more efficiency in the payments of subsidies and salaries without duplication. As indicated, the Project also supported the development and implementation of an electronic payment platform within APICED for managing the payment platform and signed contracts with two mobile phone companies (Tigo and Airtel) to make the CT subsidy and salary payments. 94. Lesson 3. The digitization of upper-secondary school materials through virtual libraries provided MENPC with valuable experience for further development of a digital platform for education in Chad. PARSET2 helped equip upper secondary with virtual libraries or DRCs and digitalized several textbooks. MENPC garnered a lot of know-how for the digitalization of textbooks and several school librarians. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the MENPC was able to apply the lessons learned from this experience to help digitalize all school manuals and move one step further to create a platform and upload the digitalized content on the platform accessible online or by offline on a phone SD card. In addition, the new World Bank supported CILOP (P175803) will use this experience and begin to digitize primary teacher’s in-service teacher training content. 95. Lesson 4: Projects in fragile countries need flexibility in implementation to adjust to the reality on the ground. During implementation, Chad faced a severe fiscal crisis and security/conflict challenges which led to nationwide strikes in education and overall volatility in the country. The World Bank, working the MENPC and GoC, adjusted the Project design and added additional resources to provide much needed support in alleviating some of the resource constraints in the education system. 96. Lesson 5. The establishment of a robust M&E system is instrumental in ensuring that the outputs and outcomes of an operation are properly documented. To document the achievements and shortcoming of an operation systematically and comprehensively—as well as to detect issues which delay project implementation and/or pose a 38 United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Operational Data Portal. Page 39 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) challenge to the attainment of the intended development impacts—a sound M&E system must be established and maintained throughout the life of a project. As noted in the M&E section, the Project was able to establish a robust M&E system capable of systematically tracking progress observed under the operation. The M&E system also provided the Government with critical data to assess the Project’s ambitious and innovative payment system for CTs. . Page 40 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: Improve teaching and learning conditions in primary and upper secondary schools in select areas Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Primary completion rates Percentage 37.00 40.00 43.00 63.94 (selected areas) 30-Jun-2011 31-Oct-2018 31-Oct-2021 30-Apr-2022 Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of additional Number 0.00 70.00 70.00 classrooms built or rehabilitated at the primary 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2018 30-Apr-2022 level resulting from project interventions. Page 41 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of additional Number 0.00 1,620.00 9,000.00 10,965.00 qualified teachers resulting from project interventions 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2021 31-Oct-2021 30-Apr-2022 Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Teachers recruited or trained Number 0.00 9,000.00 10,965.00 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2021 30-Apr-2022 Number of teachers Number 0.00 0.00 0.00 recruited 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2021 30-Apr-2022 Teachers recruited or Number 0.00 1,800.00 2,083.00 Page 42 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) trained - Female (RMS requirement) Number of teachers trained Number 0.00 1,620.00 9,000.00 10,965.00 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2018 31-Oct-2021 30-Apr-2022 Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded for teachers trained. This corporate indicator was added at the time of the AF. The project design did not include teacher recruitment only teacher training. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Textbooks-to-student ratio Percentage 25.00 50.00 52.00 (reading and math, project areas) 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2018 30-Apr-2022 Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of days that the Number 90.00 30.00 30.00 Page 43 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) majority of schools 10-Apr-2017 31-Oct-2021 30-Apr-2022 throughout the country are closed due to CT strikes related to non-payment of CT subsidy Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Improving teaching and learning conditions in primary schools Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Direct project beneficiaries Number 0.00 1,000,000.00 1,500,000.00 1,025,822.00 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2018 31-Oct-2021 30-Apr-2022 Female beneficiaries Percentage 30.00 30.00 42.90 Comments (achievements against targets): Target missed because deworming activity was not implemented. Page 44 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Gender parity index Percentage 74.00 77.00 78.00 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2018 30-Apr-2022 Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of water wells built Number 0.00 5.00 5.00 (selected primary schools) 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2018 30-Apr-2022 Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of textbooks and Number 0.00 415,000.00 485,751.00 teacher guides distributed 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2018 30-Apr-2022 Page 45 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of community Number 0.00 4,500.00 11,000.00 10,913.00 teachers receiving their subsidy payment regularly. 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2018 31-Oct-2021 30-Apr-2022 Number of CTs receiving Number 0.00 7,000.00 10,913.00 their subsidy payment by mobile payment 18-May-2017 31-Oct-2021 30-Apr-2021 mechanism. Comments (achievements against targets): 99 percent of target achieved. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of contractualized Number 0.00 3,000.00 3,000.00 CT 03-Apr-2017 31-Oct-2021 30-Apr-2022 Female CT2s Percentage 0.00 25.00 17.30 Page 46 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) contractualized Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of teachers trained Number 0.00 10,000.00 10,000.00 on using the new material 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2018 30-Apr-2022 Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Students benefiting from Number 0.00 485,751.00 485,751.00 direct interventions to enhance learning 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2021 30-Apr-2022 Students benefiting from Number 0.00 233,160.00 233,160.00 direct interventions to enhance learning - Female Page 47 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. Corporate indicator added at the time of the 2017 AF. Component: Improving teaching and learning conditions in upper secondary schools Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of upper secondary Number 0.00 390.00 390.00 teachers and inspectors/advisers trained 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2018 30-Apr-2022 Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Pre-test and Post-test for Yes/No No Yes Yes level I and II training designed and validated 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2018 30-Apr-2022 Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. Page 48 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of visits by Number 0.00 3.00 3.00 inspectors or advisors per schools, per year (targeted 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2018 30-Apr-2022 regions) Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of Document Number 0.00 30.00 31.00 Resource Centers created and equipped 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2018 30-Apr-2022 Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded. Component: Project Management, Monitoring and Evaluation Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Page 49 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) Target Completion Improved databases with Yes/No No Yes Yes linkages across units and enhanced updating and 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2018 30-Apr-2022 control protocols Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Survey completed Number 0.00 2.00 2.00 (representative sample of targeted schools) 30-Apr-2013 31-Oct-2018 30-Apr-2022 Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Community engagement - Number 0.00 1.00 1.00 satisfaction with payment of CTs. 10-Apr-2017 31-Oct-2018 30-Apr-2022 Page 50 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Availability of impact Number 0.00 1.00 1.00 evaluation reports 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2018 30-Apr-2022 Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. Page 51 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT Objective/Outcome 1: Improved teaching and learning conditions in primary schools 1.Number of additional classrooms built or rehabilitated at the primary level resulting from Project interventions (MKE, MKO, T and M) 2. Increased primary completion rate 3. Increased textbook to student ratio 4. Number of additional qualified teachers resulting from Project Outcome Indicators interventions 5. Number of teachers recruited or trained (disaggregated by number of females) (Bank CRI) 6. Number of days that the majority of schools throughout the country are closed due to CT strikes related to non-payment of CT subsidies. 1. Number of water wells built (selected schools in regions MKE, MKO, T and M) 2. Number of students benefiting from direct interventions to enhance learning 3. Number of textbooks and teachers guides distributed (grades 3-6 in regions MKE, MKO, T, M) 4. Number of teachers trained on using new materials (for grades 3-6 Intermediate Results Indicators in all regions) 5. Number of yearly inspectors’ visits per school, per year (non- cumulative regions MKE, MDO, T, M) 6. Pre- and Post-tests for Level I and II training for primate CTs designed and validated (yes/no) 7. Number of “contractualized” CTs (CTs2) (disaggregated by gender) 8. Number of CTs receiving their subsidy payments through cell phone (all regions) Page 52 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) 9. Availability of impact evaluation report 10. Community engagement—satisfaction with payment of CTs Key Outputs by Component (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1) Component 1: Improving Teacher and Learning Conditions in Primary Schools. The number of additional classrooms built or rehabilitated at the primary level resulting from Project interventions (in regions MKE, MKO, T and M) increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 70 thereby meeting the final end-target. The primary completion rate (MKE, MKO, T, M, and HL)” increased from the 2013 baseline of 37 percent to 63.94 percent exceeding. The textbook-to-students ratio (for grades 3 to 6 in regions MKE, MKO, T and M)” increased from the 2013 baseline of 25 percent to 52 percent (or 1:2) exceeding the end-target of 50 percent (1:2). The “number of additional qualified teachers resulting from Project intervention (all regions)” increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 10,965 in October 2021, thus exceeding the AF Project’s revised end-target of 9,000 by 1,965 teachers (21.8 percent increase). The “number of teachers recruited or trained (disaggregated by number of females) (World Bank Core Indicator) which was added at the time of the 2020 restructuring is equivalent to the PDO indicator “additional qualified teachers resulting from Project intervention” with the exception of reporting on the actual numbers of female students. The number teachers recruited or trained increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 10,965, thus surpassing the end-target of 9,000. Moreover, the number of females increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 2,083 in 2021, thus exceeding the end-target of 1,800 by 283 (15.5 percent increase). The PDO indicator” number of days that the majority of schools throughout the country are closed due to CT strikes related to non-payment of CT subsidies” decreased from the 2017 baseline of 90 days to 30 days in 2021, thus meeting the end-target of 30 days. The number of water wells built (selected schools in regions MKE, MKO, T, M) i ncreased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 5 meeting the end- target. The number of students benefiting from direct interventions to enhance learning” increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 233,160 in 2021, thus meeting the end-target of 233,160. The IRI the “number of textbooks and teachers guides distributed (for grades 3-6; in regions MKE, MKO, T, M”) increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 475,751 (465,751 textbooks and 10,000 teachers guides) exceeding the end-target of 415,000. In addition, the Project supported the printing and distribution of 10,000 maintenance guides for textbook management. As indicated, school visits revealed that school directors also needed training on school management and governance because they too, did not know how to manage school property. By Project closing, 4,080 principals had been trained in good governance and management in the Project areas. In addition, the Project supported training for 169 trainers in the use of the new textbooks and teaching. The “number of teachers trained on using new material (for grades 3-6, in all regions) increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 10,000 in October 2021, achieving the October 2021 end-target of 10,000. The “number of yearly inspectors’ visits per schools, per year (non-cumulative; regions MKE, MKO, T, M)” increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 3 per year meeting the target of 3 per year. The “pre-test and post-test for Level I and II Page 53 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) training for primary CTs designed and validated” (yes/no) was met with the tests designed and validated, thereby meeting the end-target. The “number of “contractualized” CTs (CT2s) (disaggregated by gender)” (added during the AF Project) increased from the 2017 baseline of 0 to 3,000 in 2021, thus meeting the 2012 end-target of 3,000. The percentage of females increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 17.3 percent, thus missing the 2021 end-target of 25.0 percent by 7.7 percentage points. The IRI related to this PDO indicator was “number of CTs receiving their subsidy payments through cell phone (all regions) which increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 10,913 in 2021 (99.2 percent achieved) slightly missing the AF increased end-target of 11,000. Component 3: Project Management, Monitoring and Evaluation. The “availability of impact evaluation reports” was met with the completion of the CT payments satisfactory survey. This indicator was specifically related to an evaluation of the delivery of CT payments via the mobile payment mechanism and it was completed in 2021. Overall, the survey showed that 79.2 percent of CTs were satisfied with the mobile phone payment system, specifically 74.8 percent were satisfied with the Airtel network and 86 percent with the MOOV Africa (formerly Tigo) network. The IRI “community engagement—satisfaction with payment of CTs” was met. The community engagement survey was incorporated into the CT satisfaction survey because the communities, through the parents’ associations which support from the APICED, are responsible for supporting CTs. The communities were also satisfied with the mobile payment system of CTs specifically because the CTs did not strike, and schools remained open. The link between inputs, activities, intermediate results, and outcomes is not one-to-one, with a couple of the project interventions potentially contributing to both Project outcomes as well as strengthen the system to facilitate evidence-based decision-making in the education sector. These are: “number of direct Project beneficiaries (percent female)” which increased from 0 in 2013 to 1,082,000 in 2021, missing the target of 1,500,000. The percentage of females increased from 0 in 2013 to 42.9 percent in 2021, exceeding the target of 30 percent by 12.9 percentage points. The IRI “increase in the gender parity index” increased from 74.0 percent in 2013 to 78.0 percent in 2021, thereby exceeding the target of 77.0 percent. In addition, there was the implementation of a “sample-based survey on service delivery completed)” which was met with the completion of the SDI survey. The full SDI survey report was conducted in both rural and urban areas and data was collected from a representative sample of 531 public, community and private primary schools in the country’s 23 administrativ e provinces. For student data, the survey collected data at CM1 level (grade 5) in reading (French and Arabic) and mathematics. In addition, the survey gathered data on a sample of teachers to measure their absence rates and assess their knowledge as well as 1,051 households (i.e., families of two students per school) to collect information on the socio-demographic characteristics. The results of the survey showed continuing challenges for service delivery of primary education with teacher absence rates still high, administrative and pedagogical monitoring of principals challenging, availability of school infrastructure still inadequate, and student learning outcomes low. It is important to note that the SDI was conducted between April 24 to June 5, 2021 (post COVID-19 disruptions to children’s education), and therefore, the findings also provide window Page 54 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) into possible leaning losses related to the pandemic. All of these important findings will be used to inform the GoC’s new Ed ucation Sector Strategy (2023-2032). The IRI “improved database with linkages across units and enhanced updating and control protocols” was met. As indicated, the overall data collection framework (master plan) was developed with a relational scheme for the different departments within the MENPC. The “Schema Directeur de I’Informatique” (relational scheme for the difference departments) that will be used to govern the MENPC’s information system was adopted and operationalized. In addition to the system, the Project provided 418 computers for the system network and 418 motorbikes for data collection and verification activities. The system is now being used to produces education statistics for the MENPC. Objective/Outcome 2: Improved teaching and learning conditions in upper secondary schools in selected region (region N) 1. Number of additional quality teachers resulting from Project Outcome Indicators interventions 1. Number of upper secondary teachers and inspectors/pedagogical Intermediate Results Indicators advisers trained (region N) 2. Number of DRCs created and equipped Key Outputs by Component (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 2) Component 2: Improving teaching and learning conditions in upper secondary schools. As indicated, the PDO-level indicator used to measure the achievement of Outcome 2 was also the “number of additional teachers resulting from Project interventions”, but specifically related to the target of 300 upper secondary teachers (included in the overall total of 10,965 above) which was also being monitored by the IRI “number of upper secondary teachers and inspectors/pedagogical advisers trained (region N) (300 teachers and 90 inspectors)”. The Project trained all 300 upper secondary school teachers in the targeted disciplines of mathematics, physics, chemistry and natural sciences and 90 inspectors, thereby meeting the 2021 target of 390 for the outcome and IRI indicator. The IRI “number of DRCs created and equipped (region N)” increased from the 2013 baseline of 0 to 31 (15 physical and 16 virtual), thus exceeding the 2021 target of 30 by 1 DRC. The 15 physical/classical DRC were created through the acquisition of: (i) books; (ii) generators; (iii) bookshelves; (iv) tables and chairs; (v) tablets; (vi) servers, and (vii) internet installation. Regarding the 16 virtual DRCs, the Project supported the procurement of computer equipment (i.e., tablets, Network-attached storage—NAS servers, software and digital documentary collections) and digitization of textbooks. Finally, the Project supported capacity building activities for all library managers which included pedagogical use of the tools, as well as a sustainability workshop for school heads, municipal officials, student representatives and librarians. As a result of the Project, virtual libraries are now active in Chad and this represents a substantial achievement observed under the Project. Page 55 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS Name Role Preparation Marie-Helene Cloutier Task Team Leader Waly Wane Task Team Leader Hector Pacheco Procurement Specialist(s) Lucienne M. M'Baipor Social Specialist Emeran Serge M. Menang Evouna Social Specialist Wolfgant M. T. Chadab Senior Finance Officer Celine Gavach Senior Operations Officer Emanuela Di Cropello Sector Leader Ningayo Charles Donang Senior Procurment Specialist Pierre Joseph Kamano Senior Education Specialist Koyalta Ndordji Information Analyst Maya Abi Karam Counsel Bethe Wanjeri Mwangi Financial Management Specialist Daniel Dupety Architect Karine Angles Public Sector Speciaist Damian C. Clark Economist Alison Marie Grimsland Education Specialist Astou Diaw-Ba Senior Program Assistant Page 56 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) Bougadare Kone Environmental Specialist Cheikh A. T. Sagna Senior Social Development Specialist Christophe Lemiere Program Leader Faly Diallo Finance Officer Jean Charles Amon Kra Senior Financial Management Specialist Julie Rieger Senior Counsel Lalaina Noelinirina Program Assistant Ndolassem Christabelle Mbairo Team Assistant Supervision/ICR Waly Wane Task Team Leader(s) Harisoa Danielle Rasolonjatovo Andriamihamina Task Team Leader(s) Monique Ndome Didiba Epse Azonfack, Haoussia Procurement Specialist(s) Tchaoussala Kandi Magendo Financial Management Specialist Herve Cossi Ahouissou Financial Management Specialist Josue Akre Financial Management Specialist Mistoura Iyabo Motunrayo Salami Team Member Mahamat Seidou Seidou Ahmat Environmental Specialist Ndoya-Allah Bantiga Social Specialist Zacharie Ngueng Education Specialist Aurelie Marie Simone Monique Rossignol Environmental Specialist Timoleon Kossadoum Procurement Team Khady Fall Lo Procurement Team Paivi Koskinen-Lewis Social Specialist Nikolai Alexei Sviedrys Wittich Procurement Team Emeran Serge M. Menang Evouna Social Specialist Ndolassem Christabelle Mbairo Procurement Team Page 57 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) Hector Pacheco Team Member Rahmoune Essalhi Team Member Bintou Sogodogo Team Member Felly Akiiki Kaboyo Team Member Sandra Beemer ICR Contributor/Main Author Fatim Adja Lahonri Diabagate ICR Contributor/Economic & Financial Analysis Bernardo da Cruz Vasconcellos ICR Contributor/Quality Assurance & ICR Team Member B. STAFF TIME AND COST Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY13 32.082 194,456.88 Total 32.08 194,456.88 Supervision/ICR FY14 26.747 100,170.34 FY15 19.950 83,685.80 FY16 15.214 102,136.39 FY17 17.172 115,483.21 FY18 6.216 65,175.15 FY19 34.744 119,002.23 FY20 33.058 97,860.84 Total 153.10 683,513.96 Page 58 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Amount at Amount at AF Total Actual at Percentage Components Approval Approval Project Cost Project Closing of Approval (US$M) (US$M) (US$M) (US$M) (US$M) Improving teaching and learning conditions in 9.10 11.50 19.401 16.05 82.70 primary schools Improving teaching and learning conditions in 2.00 0.00 2.00 3.05 152.50 upper secondary schools Project Management, Monitoring and 3.90 3.50 7.40 5.60 75.70 Evaluation Stabilizing Community Teachers in Schools and 0.00 35.00 36.202 39.65 109.50 Classrooms Total 15.00 50.00 65.00 64.35 99.00 1 The original allocation was US$9.1 million. However, at the time of the 2017 AF, US$1.20 million, which was originally allocated for CT subsidy payment activities was moved to the new AF Component 4 which covered all CT subsidy payment activities. 2 The total for Component 4 includes the US$1.20 million reallocated from Component 1 at the time of the 2017 AF. Page 59 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS 1. This annex provides the economic and financial evaluation of the Education Sector Reform Project in Chad (P132617). It assesses the efficiency of the investment made, relying on key sector indicators as well as estimates of the internal rates of returns (IRR) at the end of the project implementation. First, the analysis describes how education may positively impact the wellbeing of the population of Chad. The economic analysis undertaken at the appraisal stage outlined the potential positive impacts of the Project stemming from— improvements in targeted school facilities, access to teaching and learning materials, technical and pedagogical training, teaching incentives and evidence-based decision making—and anticipated that completion rates and learning outcomes would improve as a result of the Project. As such, this section will assess whether the Project contributed to improvements in access and completion rates in Chad at the primary and secondary levels of education, while also evaluating the extent to which beneficiary students began to acquire the skills they need to become productive workers within the labor market. Thus, before the cost effectiveness of the Project is assessed, the performance of the education sector is examined by reviewing the evolution of access and retention indicators at the primary and secondary levels of education, which together, help determine completion and learning outcomes within the aforementioned cycles.39 Lastly, the cost-benefit analysis presented herein has been updated on the basis of the actual disbursements, actual beneficiaries, and main achievements observed under the Project. While the sector diagnosis will consider the additional financing stage to highlight need for a supplemental funding, the updated cost benefit analysis will focus solely on results at the end of the project implementation.40 2. There are a wide range of potential benefits associated with higher levels of educational attainment. The most obvious ones are the improved employability and incomes of beneficiaries which progress through the various education cycles. Yet, education embodies other benefits that go beyond pecuniary gains. For instance, studies have showed that educated individuals have better health outcomes and higher civic engagement. Moreover, these positive externalities echo to the next generation, as children of educated individuals also have better health outcomes and face lower risk of mortality at early ages. Furthermore, learning yields substantial peer and neighbor effects, so that private benefits of education can translate into benefits at the societal level. More specifically, education contributes to innovation and growth, better-functioning institutions, greater intergenerational social mobility, higher levels of social trust, and a lower likelihood of conflict. Beyond these benefits, education can accelerate progress by advancing economic development, strengthening humanitarian action, contributing to security and state-building, mitigating impacts of disasters, and fostering post-conflict reconstruction.41 3. The size of the population and the conflictual context of Chad raises the value of these benefits, making the potential of education even higher for Chad. Indeed, Chad’s most abundant resource is its population which is predominantly young; 46 percent of the total population is aged 0-14 years.42 Also, the conflictual context of Chad further underscores the urgency to equip youth with the skills they need to earn a living and avoid violence. In fact, there are incentives to be educated in Chad, especially for women. At the national level, an additional year of schooling yields, on average, a 7 percent increase earnings, while for women, each additional year of schooling yields, on average, an 11 percent increase in projected earnings. Further, education and especially successful completion of education cycles, increases the likelihood of wage employment in Chad: those who completed upper secondary have thrice as more chances 39 The review will consider both lower and upper secondary although the project coverage in secondary cycle is limited to upper secondary. The reason is that students need to succeed lower secondary to access upper secondary. 40 The efficiency assessment will depict the extent to which all total funds disbursed achieved benefits that exceed total costs incurred. 41 Sahel Education White Paper. 42 World Development Indicators, Chad year 2020. Page 60 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) to get a paid job compared to those who just completed lower secondary and have some upper secondary education.43 Moreover, there is evidence that educated people from Chad are more likely to be informed citizens (i.e., reading the newspaper and listening to the radio), apply birth control, and have good knowledge of HIV/AIDS.44 Education sector review Access 4. There are signs of expansion in access to primary and upper secondary education while enrollment rates in lower secondary remain on a decreasing path. Although the population of primary school age (6-11 years) has been growing, actual enrolment (in numbers) in primary school dropped between 2013 and 2017 before recovering and exceeding its 2013 value, in 2018. The drop in actual enrollment rates was a result of the fiscal crisis that led to the non-payment of Community Teachers (CTs), which in turn, led to teachers’ strike and school closures. As of 2017, the growth in the primary school population exceeded the one of the age-appropriate population (6-11 years), so that Gross Enrolment Rates (GER) in primary education took a rising trend in 2017 although it never returned to 100 percent as in 2013. Males’ enrollment exceeds females’ enrollment across all cycles of education in Chad. By examining enrollment rates for primary school age students—as reflected by the NER—one observes that the rise in total enrollment in 2018 compared to 2017 is mainly due to students that are either overage or underage. GER in upper secondary has started to recover after 2018, while GER in lower secondary remained stable between 2018 and 2019, thus showing no signs of expansion in lower secondary. An analysis of improvements in access rates over time suggests that the Project, and especially the AF Project which was approved in 2017, may have contributed to support access to the targeted cycles, namely primary and upper secondary levels of education. Furthermore, as Figure 3 depicts, between 2011 and 2018, GER in primary rose in all the regions selected for interventions at the appraisal stage while it dropped in other regions and nationwide on average. As discussed above, the school closures may have triggered the drop in nationwide GER which was mostly drawn by a decrease in enrolment in regions not covered by the Project. This underscores that the project is likely to have contributed in better access to primary education in Chad. 43 Authors’ estimation based on household data – Chad EHCVM 2018. 44 Economic and Financial Analysis -PAD: Results from regressions on quasi-panel data created using 2004 Demographic and Health Surveys. Page 61 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) Figure 1: Gross enrolment rates and Net enrollment rates 140% 115% 101% 120% 97% 88% 88% 86% 100% 78% 76% 75% 68% 68% 64% 80% 60% 43% 34% 32% 31% 29% 26% 26% 25% 25% 40% 20% 18% 18% 18% 18% 17% 10% 9% 9% 20% 0% National Male Female National Male Female National Male Female National Primary Lower Secondary Upper Secondary NER GER 2013 2017 2018 2019 Source: Administrative data from the MENPC Figure 2: Total enrolment (in numbers, millions, left) and age-appropriate population size (millions, right) 3 3.5 2.4 2.47 2.32 2.76 2.86 2.5 3 2.66 2.07 2 2.5 2.29 1.5 2 1 1.5 1 0.5 0.5 0 2013 2017 2018 2019 0 2013 2017 2018 2019 Primary Lower Secondary Upper Secondary Pop 6-11 Pop 12-15 Pop 16-18 Source: Administrative data from the MENPC and population projections INSEED Page 62 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) Figure 3: GER in selected regions versus others Gross Enrolment Rates in primary 140% 116% 120% 104% 106% 103% 93% 99% 100% 77% 73% 80% 61% 60% 40% 29% 20% 0% Targeted Others National Hadjer Mandoul Mayo Mayo NDjamena Tandjile regions Lamis Kebbi Est Kebbi Ouest Average By region 2011 2018 Source: Authors’ estimation based on Chad Household Survey, ECOSIT (2011) and EHCVM (2018) 5. Although access is improving, an important share of primary and secondary school age children is excluded of the school system. Estimates based on household data reveals that 52 percent of primary school age students were not enrolled in 2018, with a proportion that is slightly higher among girls (56 percent) in all the cycles, and more so in upper secondary school. Most of these out-of-school (OOS) children have never attended school. Also, the proportion of OOS children who have previously dropped out, rises as one progresses through the system, with 14 percent of children aged 16 to 18 (of upper secondary age) having dropped out before completing secondary school. However, in 2018, 4 years after PARSET 2 interventions were launched, the total OOS rate among lower secondary school age student is below the total OOS rate among primary and upper secondary school age students. This suggests that investing funds in primary and upper secondary cycles was relatively more needed as a higher proportion of children that should have been enrolled in these cycles remain excluded from the education system compared to children supposed to be enrolled in lower secondary. This may justify the Project’s focus on the primary and upper secondary cycles of education. In addition, because most OOS children never attended school, investing in infrastructures and class construction in primary school was highly relevant, again underscoring the soundness and effectiveness of the investments and activities supported under the original and AF Projects. Page 63 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) Figure 4: Out of School Children school age (16- secondary age school age National 49% 3% Primary (6-11) Male 47% 3% Female 52% 4% (12-15) National Lower 38% 7% Male 33% 6% Female 43% 8% secondary National Upper 43% 14% 18) Male 31% 13% Female 53% 14% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Never attended Dropout Source: Authors’ estimation based on Chad Household Survey EHCVM (2018) Efficiency and Learning 6. Repetition and dropout rates provide a mixed, yet promising picture regarding the efficiency of Chad’s education sector which was severely affected by repetitive strikes and school closures during the life of the Project. Repetition rates in primary and lower secondary have nearly halved between 2012/2013 and 2018/2019. However, there is no marked improvement in dropout rates at the primary education level. Although they significantly dropped between 2017 and 2018, they are higher in 2019 when compared to the values which prevailed in 2013. The investment in learning materials and teacher training may have improved the quality of primary education in Chad, and better equipped primary school students for lower secondary. This could explain the overall drop in primary and lower secondary repetition rates throughout the period between 2012 and 2019. Since CTs represent the bulk of primary school teachers who went on repeated strikes due the non-payment of their subsidies, school closures, class interruptions and delayed start of programs led a large number of students to drop out of school, thus partially explaining the overall rise in dropout rates. In fact, beginning in 2014, teacher strikes had the immediate consequence of closing more than 2,000 schools and reducing the number of students enrolled in the education system by more than 350,000. Although the Parent project had allocated 1.2 million to the piloting of a subsidy payment mechanism for CTs, to improve their motivation, given the Gov ernment’s inability to pay their salaries, subsidies payment for CTs stopped in 2014, and civil servants did not receive their salary in 2016. This justified the additional funding granted for the payment of CT subsidies which resumed in 2018. This is the plausible reason behind the big reduction in dropout rates between 2017 and 2018. Page 64 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) Figure 5: Repetition and Dropout rates 27% 28% 26% 25% 25% 30% 23% 23% 23% 23% 22% 21% 21% 21% 25% 19% 19% 19% 19% 17% 17% 17% 16% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 20% 13% 12% 12% 11% 11% 15% 9% 7% 7% 10% 5% 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2012 2018 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Primary Lower Upper Primary Secondary Secondary Repetition rate Dropout rate Male Female Source: Administrative data from the MENPC and Authors’ estimation based on Chad Household Survey EHCVM (2018) 7. Primary promotion and completion rates have overall been rising between 2013 and 2019, for both males and females, while completion of lower secondary have stalled.45 Indicators for boys remained better than girls’ over the 2013-2019 time period. The biggest jump in primary promotion rate happened between 2017 and 2018, with a 10 percentage points rise in primary promotion rates. The additional financing in 2017 may have triggered this rise as the CT payment mechanism had a significant positive impact on teachers’ motivation and presence in class. Completion rates in the lower secondary level have overall stalled and remained below completion rates observed at the upper secondary in 2018, perhaps in part as a result of the Project’s strong focus on training upper secondary science teachers. 45 Promotion rate, primary is the proportion of pupils in any grade of primary school who are promoted to the next grade the following school year. Page 65 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) Figure 6: Promotion and completion rates Promotion rate 2019 65% 67% 2018 72% 73% 2017 61% 63% Primary 2016 62% 65% 2015 54% 56% 2014 58% 62% 2013 61% 64% Upper Secon dary 2018 14% 32% Lower Secondary 2018 10% 20% Male 2017 10% 21% 2016 8% 21% Female Completion rates 2015 9% 21% 2014 10% 24% 2013 9% 22% 2018 47% 34% 2017 45% 31% Primary 2016 50% 33% 2015 45% 30% 2014 46% 29% 2013 42% 26% Source: Edstats and Authors’ estimation based on Chad Household Survey EHCVM (2018) Figure 7: Proficiency levels in Language and Mathematics at the end of primary Proficiency in reading (%) Proficiency in Mathematics (%) 12 Chad 15 Chad 11 Girls 20 Girls 47 PASEC av. 42 PASEC av. 39 31 Boys 20 Boys Chad 17 Chad 24 13 PASEC av. 43 PASEC av. 43 40 31 National National Chad 15 Chad 19 22 12 PASEC av. 45 PASEC av. 41 40 31 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 2014 2019 2014 2019 Source: PASEC 2014 and 2019 Page 66 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) 8. While learning outcomes in reading, at the end of the primary education cycle have recently regressed in francophone SSA, on average, they have improved in Chad. However, the achievement level of students in Chad at the end of primary school has deteriorated in Mathematics. Between 2014 and 2019, the proportion of students enrolled in the last grade of primary school who achieved the minimum proficiency in language rose by 7 percentage points on average. The reverse happened for the proficiency level in Mathematics, with a 7 percent drop in the percentage of students that achieved minimum proficiency. Performance of students from Chad completing primary school in literacy and Mathematics has remained below the one of average francophone students completing primary school in SSA. Yet, while proficiency level in literacy has worsened in SSA by 8 percentage points between 2014 and 2019, it improved in Chad by 7 percentage points. Improvements in literacy rates in Chad may increase the country’s ability to improve learning outcomes in the future, given that proficiency in languages are strongly associated with a students’ ability to learn. As of students that started primary school in the midst of the Project implementation, precisely in 2017, PASEC results reveal their performed better in both Mathematics and Reading when compared to their counterparts that started primary 5 years before, in 2012. This is indicative of the fact that students that were not exposed to the massive school closures in Chad, between 2014 and 2017, but benefited from the Project afterwards, performed better, on average, than students from previous cohorts who attended that same grade before the Project was implemented. The Project’s financial and technical support ensured the stabilization of the education sector in Chad and the continuation of the teaching and learning process in the country. These patterns also suggest that the Project may have plausibly contributed to some extent in putting students on a better learning trajectory. Cost-benefit analysis 9. The benefits of the Project are both quantifiable and non-quantifiable. Key interventions of the Project such as the training of primary school students (under component 1) were extended nationwide during the AF Project’s implementation period. Through the plausible impact of these interventions on education outcomes of beneficiary students spanning all the country, the Project is likely to have generated positive externalities to the entourage of direct beneficiaries of the country. Although the monetary value of the subsidies paid to CTs would appear on both costs and benefits and cancel out, the implied wellbeing for CTs and their families, in the form of empowerment, opportunities granted to their dependent relatives, to cite a few, is substantial positive externality which cannot be fully quantified with the available data. Following the economic analysis carried out in the PAD, the economic and financial analysis undertaken for this ICR examines the potential impact of interventions supported under the Project, particularly as it relates to improvements in completion rates and learning outcomes. However, the current analysis focuses on benefits associated with the plausible impact of the Project on completion rates (i.e., higher levels of education attainment), leaving aside potential benefits associated to learning outcomes. Indeed, the diagnosis of the sector made in the previous section has revealed that students’ performance in reading has recently improved, while achievement level in mathematics has deteriorated. Therefore, the updated cost effectiveness analysis herein assumes that potential benefits gained from the improvement in literacy reading have been reversed by the learning losses in Mathematics. 10. In order to ensure consistency with the cost benefit analysis carried out at the appraisal stage - which focused on Component 1 of the parent Project- the updated analysis at the ICR stage covers Component 1 (improving teaching and learning conditions in primary school) and Component 4 (stabilizing Community Teachers in Schools and Classrooms (nationwide focus)) of the AF project. Component 4 was added during the project AF stage and accounts for 56 percent of the total cost of the Project. Interventions under Component 1 of the parent Project which supported the implementation of an innovative mechanism for the payment of CT subsidies through mobile phones for a sample of teachers were moved to Component 4. Additional interventions were added to component 4 and required supplemental Page 67 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) funds to extend the target of the payment mechanism to all CTs in Chad and to support the actual payment of CT subsidies between 2018 and 2021. Thus, benefits anticipated under Component 1 of the parent Project align with anticipated benefits of both Components 1 and 4 of the AF Project. As the Project contributed to improved teaching and learning conditions in primary school, and led to reduced absenteeism of primary school teachers, students’ chances to succeed are expected to have improved. Thus, the Project has plausibly contributed to the rise in primary completion rates registered in selected areas and nationwide, between the start and the end of the project implementation. Beneficiaries of the Project are thus expected to have achieved or to achieve higher education attainment. The analysis of benefits is thus premised on the difference—or incremental—increase in expected lifetime earnings for student beneficiaries with and without the Project. 11. Assumptions made for the analysis were conservative to provide the fairest estimates of the Project’s cost effectiveness. The analysis conducted only focused on students’ beneficiaries that were already enrolled in the system at the start of the Project. Also, for Component 4 interventions that had nationwide coverage, the Project was assumed to have contributed to 10 percent of the observed total rise in nationwide PCR between 2013 and 2018.46 Additional assumptions are outlined below: a. Earnings: A wage rate is estimated for different levels of education and age, using the 2018 EHCVM (Enquête Harmonisée sur les Conditions de Vie des Ménages). b. Employment rate (chance of wage employment): The share of graduates that get a paid job is assumed equal to 46 percent, as estimated using the 2018 EHCVM (Enquête Harmonisée sur les Conditions de Vie des Ménages). c. Discount rate: A discount rate of 4 percent is used, corresponding to the latest available (2013) lending interest rate (%) in Chad, and retrieved from publications of the International Monetary Fund - International Financial Statistics. d. Years in the labor market: Following the original Cost Benefit analysis made at time of appraisal, it is assumed that project beneficiaries enter the labor market at the age of 17 and retire at the age of 60. e. Returns to education: The wage distribution for individuals with different levels of education based on the 2018 EHCVM has been used to determine the difference in lifetime earnings between upper secondary and tertiary education graduates. f. Exchange rate: The exchange rate used is 541 CFA per 1 US$, which was the exchange rate effective in 2014, when disbursement associated to the projects started. g. Incremental benefits: Incremental benefits estimated by taking the average net present value of the estimated future earnings stream of project beneficiaries. h. Completion and promotion: Not all students that benefited from the project will graduate. Primary completion rates registered in selected regions are applied to beneficiaries of interventions under component 1, while nationwide values are used for beneficiaries of component 4 interventions. Nationwide promotion rates as estimated in 2018 are used to account for transition between cycles. 12. Table 1 below presents the results of the cost-benefit analysis at ICR stage. The baseline analysis assumes that 46 percent of graduates get a paid job. Both the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Net Present value (NPV) estimates suggest that, based on actual project beneficiaries and costs, the Project is economically justifiable and profitable at the end of its implementation. The benefits/cost ratio (BCR), NPV and IRR over a 25-year horizon are respectively 4.14, US$ 202.4 million, and 25 percent. To obtain a lower-bound of the benefit-cost ratio, we factored in the costs of Components 2 and 46Setting a lower contribution of the project to the observed rise in PCR has virtually no impact on main indicators of cost effectiveness, namely IRR and BCR. Page 68 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) 3 but assumed no associated benefits. The BCR and IRR are only slightly different at 3.69 and 21.6 percent, respectively. The analysis therefore strongly supports the assertion that the project offered good value for money for the beneficiaries. Table 1: Baseline scenario Net Present Value in millions of USD and Internal Rate of Return Baseline: 46 percent of graduates get a paid job Over 25 years Components 1 and 4 IRR 25% Discounted cost (present value of costs) $64.4 Project Cost $43.4 Education costs (foregone earnings and expenses) $21 Present value of incremental benefits $266.8 NPV (with 2014 as the base year) $202.4 Benefit/cost ratio 4.14 13. Table 2 below presents the results for a pessimistic scenario which assumes that only 20 percent of graduates get a paid job. This scenario accounts for economic conditions that are subjected to unpredictable shocks exactly like the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Even in such a case, the proposed Project remains economically justified. Over a 25-year horizon, the net present value (NPV) of interventions related to Components 1 and 4 is estimated at US$ $51.6 million. The IRR associated with this NPV is 11 percent, and the associated Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) is 1.8. Thus, even if benefits were overstated under the baseline scenario, the net return from the interventions that contributed to improving teaching and learning conditions and reducing teacher absenteeism in primary school remain positive. Table 2: Sensitivity analysis (pessimistic) Net Present Value in millions of USD and Internal Rate of Return Pessimistic: 20 percent of graduates get a paid job Over 25 years Components 1 and 4 IRR 11% Discounted cost (present value of costs) $64.4 Project Cost $43.4 Education costs (foregone earnings and expenses) $21 Present value of incremental benefits $116 NPV (with 2014 as the base year) $51.6 Benefit/cost ratio 1.8 14. The cost effectiveness assessment made provided lower bound estimates of the projects return. The non- quantifiable benefits of the Project are likely to be significant. First, the substantial benefits to families of CTs that received their subsidies have not been quantified. Component 2-related interventions, which mainly focused on upgrading the skills of teachers and principals in upper secondary schools, are likely to have generated large gains which were not included in the analysis presented above. Teachers and then principals are the very first to intervene in the education machinery. Their performance has a direct impact on students’ learning process and therefore their outcomes. Since the Project may have contributed to supporting teachers and principals to be effective educators, Component 2-related interventions are likely to have had a significant positive impact for upper secondary students which will enter the labor market sooner than Page 69 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) primary school students. Also, through Component 3 interventions, the Project has created the conditions for evidence- based decision-making in the education sector of Chad, which should have long-lasting effects through the impact on current and future students in Chad. Furthermore, the cost-benefit analysis undertaken only considered students’ beneficiaries that were enrolled in the targeted cycles during the project implementation. Much more students will enroll in the same cycles for years to come, and benefit from improved teaching and learning conditions. The Project has therefore set the stage for a marked improvement in the quality and relevance of primary and secondary education in Chad, which will surely benefit students in future cohorts. Performance of Financial Management and Use of Project Resources 15. The public FM assessment which was carried out in 2013 at the time of appraisal, concluded that the overall public sector financial management system needed to be strengthened in order to ensure the efficient and judicious use of project resources. Therefore, to ensure that the project could fulfill its fiduciary responsibilities, special emphasis was placed on building the Government’s technical capacity in budget planning, accounting, and reporting. Capacity development workshops were conducted by the World Bank’s FM specialists for the PCU FM staff with contributors assigned to specific tasks to foster transparency and clarity. As such, a new designated account was established at the time of the AF Project approval and dedicated to the payment of the CT subsidies under Component 4. The PCU also added an FM assistant, specifically to support the APICED in the management of the scaled-up CTs’ payments. 16. Although some FM challenges were observed over the life of the Project, these were rectified during the course of project implementation. In addition, the PCU regularly submitted unaudited interim financial reports (IFRs) of an acceptable quality. Moreover, the required external financial audits were submitted to the World Bank in accordance with the Financing Agreement and the auditors’ opinions were always of unqualified (clean), just highlighting the efficient and judicious use of project resources. Efficiency of Design and Implementation and Overall Efficiency Rating 17. With a benefit/cost ratio exceeding 4, and the net present value of benefits exceeding the one of costs even under a very pessimistic scenario, the project demonstrated strong efficiency of the investments . The Project’s fine- tuned design contributed to the strong efficiency of the investments undertaken. Indeed, proposed interventions aimed to support students’ preparedness for school, to improve school infrastructures, to give access to learning materials, to upgrade teachers’ and principals’ skills and to foster their attendance at school and in class. Despite multiple challenges associated to the fiscal crisis that undermined the normal course of education in the country, and the impact of the covid- 19 pandemic, significant internal and external efficiency gains were observed over the life cycle of the Project. Project activities financed a number of critical activities within the education sector and targeted project resources to the areas of the country with the greatest need. Though the vast majority of the Project’s activities were successfully implemented by the Project’s closing date, and most of the envisaged outputs and outcome targets were either met or exceeded by the operation’s closing date—with the notable exception of the deworming program— some important activities, such as the purchase of science toolkits to beneficiary teachers, were initially delayed due to weak procurement performance by the GoC. The project closing date was extended twice, first from October 2018 to October 2020, and then to October 2021, owing to delays caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2014 decline in oil price which led to a fiscal crisis and the non- payment of teachers’ salaries. Despite these significant events, the PARSET 2 achieved most of all its intended outputs and outcomes. Based on the analysis presented herein, the overall efficiency rating under the Project is Substantial. Page 70 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS In an email dated April 28, 2022, the Government confirmed its agreement to the findings of the ICR and had no additional comments. The Government provided their final completion report to the Bank which has been filed in WBDocs for information and reference. Page 71 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) ANNEX 6. 2017 ADDITIONAL FINANCING REVISIONS TO INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS At the time of the 2017 AF: (i) two indicators are added to monitor CTs, (ii) one indicator on citizen engagement – specifically on feedback from citizens in the school communities on satisfaction with the Project initiatives; and (iii) annual/end-of-Project targets and dates were adjusted where appropriate to reflect planned support under the proposed AF and the two-year extension in the Project closing date. Table 1: 2017 Additional Financing Revisions to Intermediate Indicators Original PDO Indicators Additional Financing Revisions Original End AF End 2013 2017 Target Target 2018 2020 Overarching Project Indicators Total beneficiaries were increased to: (i) reflect the Direct Project Beneficiaries (disaggregated 1,000,000 1,500,000 by percentage female) additional number of pupils who would benefit (30 percent (30 percent) (number) from the CTs in classrooms; (ii) the beneficiaries receiving the deworming program added under the new sub-component 1.4: Deworming Primary School-aged Children (nationwide) and (iii) the end target date was modified to October 31, 2020, reflect revised Project closing date. Gender Parity index End target date was modified to October 31, 2020 77 77 (percentage) to reflect revised Project closing date. Component 1: Improving Teaching and Learning Conditions in Primary School New Indicator: “number of contractualized CTs” Not 3,000 (disaggregated by percentage female). Applicable (25 percent female) Number of water wells built (selected End target date was modified to October 31, 2020 5 5 schools in regions of MKE, MKO, T and M) to reflect revised Project closing date. (number) Number of textbooks and teacher guides End target date was modified to October 31, 2020 415,000 415,000 distributed (grades 3-6 in the regions of to reflect revised Project closing date. MKE, MKO, T and M) Number of teachers trained on using the End target date was modified to October 31, 2020 10,000 10,000 new material (grades 3-6 in the regions of to reflect revised Project closing date. MKE, MKO, T and M) Pre-test and post-test for Level I and II End target date was modified to October 31, 2020 Yes Yes training designed and validated to reflect revised Project closing date. Number of yearly inspectors’ visits per End target date was modified to October 31, 2020 3 3 primary schools (non-cumulative; regions to reflect revised Project closing date. MKE, MKO, T, M) Number of primary level CTs receiving Moved from original “Sub-component 1.4: 4,500 (see below) their subsidy payment through cell phone Community Teachers Subsidy Payment (regions of MKE, MKO, T, M and HL) Mechanism” to new “Component 4: Stabilizing Community Teachers in Schools and Classrooms”. The indicator was re-stated to measure CTs nationwide and the end target was increased from Page 72 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) 4,500 CTs to 7,000 CTs. (see below under Component 4.) Component 2: Improving Teaching and Learning in Upper Secondary Schools Number of upper secondary teachers and End target date was modified to October 31, 2020 390 390 inspectors/pedagogical advisers training to reflect revised Project closing date. (Note: (region N) (disaggregated by teachers and Disaggregated targets were 300 teachers and 90 inspectors/pedagogical advisers) inspectors/pedagogical advisers.) Number of DRCs created and equipped End target date was modified to October 31, 2020 30 30 (region N) to reflect revised Project closing date. Component 3: Project Management and Evaluation Improved databases with linkages across End target date was modified to October 31, 2020 Yes Yes units and enhanced updating and control to reflect revised Project closing date. protocols Sample-based survey on service delivery End target date was modified to October 31, 2020 2 2 completed (representative sample of to reflect revised Project closing date. teachers in regions MKE, MKO, T, M HL and N Availability of Impact Evaluation As indicated, moved from PDO level indicator to 1 1 intermediate level indicator. End target date was modified to October 31, 2020 to reflect revised Project closing date. NEW AF Component 4: Stabilizing Community Teachers in Schools and Classrooms (nationwide focus) Number of primary level CTs receiving Indicator moved from Component 1 and re-stated 4,500 11,000 their subsidy payment through cell phone as “number of CTs receiving their subsidies (7,000 by (regions of MKE, MKO, T, M and HL) payment regularly (disaggregated by receiving mobile their subsidies by mobile payment mechanism)“. payment) Note: Given the expansion of CT payment and the use of the mobile payment mechanism it was expected that most teachers would be paid by this means. However, some teachers would/could be paid through normal channels if they did not have mobile phones and/or did not want to be paid via mobile phone. “Regular” referred to quarterly payments. The target for overall CTs receiving regular payments was 11,000 (disaggregated target was 7,000). New AF indicator “number of “contractualized” N/A 3,000 (25 CTs (disaggregated by gender). These CTs were percent defined as CTs having entered into a contract with female) the Government for monthly subsidy payments). The end target was 3,000 (25 percent female) CTs. New AF indicator “results collected from citizen N/A 1 feedback survey on CT payments”. The end target was “at least 1 survey conducted and results available. Page 73 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) ANNEX 7. ADDITIONAL FINANCING COMPONENT MODIFICATIONS Component Description of AF Modifications Component 1: Improving teaching and learning conditions in primary school (AF Total US$11.5 million equivalent) Subcomponent 1.1: Quality of Infrastructure and No Change School Furniture Subcomponent 1.2: Teaching and Learning Material No Change Subcomponent 1:3: Teacher Training and Activities were scaled up. (AF=US$9.5 million equivalent) Management This subcomponent expanded teacher training for community teachers from the four original regions to cover all 23 regions of the country. The AF was to finance the upgrading the teaching skills of CT1s and CT2s. CT0s were ineligible for the training because the Government urged communities not to hire unskilled CT0s and issued a requirement that technical partners focus their efforts on CT1s and CT2s instead of CT0s 47. Subcomponent 1.4: Community Teachers Subsidies Moved under new Component 4: Stabilizing Community Teachers in Payment Mechanism Schools and Classrooms (New) Subcomponent 1.4: Deworming all Primary NEW Subcomponent (AF=US$ 2.0 equivalent) School-age Children This new sub-component focused on deworming school-age children. The AF targeted the 1.5 million children in the primary schools through partnership with the services of the MPH and local communities. As well as financing a preliminary survey to establish the prevalence rate in different Regional Education Department / Direction Régionale de l’Éducation Nationale – DREN. Component 2: Improving Teaching and Learning in Upper Secondary Schools (Total AF US$0.0 million equivalent) Subcomponent 2.1 Teacher training and subsector No Change strategy Subcomponent 2.2: Teaching and Learning Materials No Change Component 3: Project Management (Total AF US$3.5 million equivalent) Subcomponent 3.1 Project Management Additional financing in the amount of US$1.5 million equivalent This subcomponent continued to support the PCU for the additional years of implementation by: (i) adding staff to manage the CT subsidy activities under the new component 4; (ii) increasing supervision activities to mitigate the fiduciary risks associated with the CT payments. Subcomponent 3.2 Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Additional financing in the amount of US$2.0 million equivalent This subcomponent continued to support M&E with the expansion of Project activities to all regions. Finally, given the critical role of school communities, the AF will include a citizen engagement mechanism. Communities were to be surveyed to assess the effect of payment of CTs on parents and communities’ satisfaction with respect to the functionin g of the primary schools their children attended. NEW Component 4: Community Teachers Subsidies Payments (Total AF US$35.0 million equivalent) Subcomponent 4.1: Community Teachers’ Subsidies Additional financing in the amount of US$33.7 million equivalent Payment This sub-component was to fund payment of CTs’ subsidies for approximately 11,680 CT1s and CT2s. The subsidies for 2016-17 school 47See the 2015 Arrêté No 118/PR/PM/MEN/SEENCEFA/SG/DGETFP/DFE/2015. Note that PARSET2 had trained CT0 to become CT1s because PARSET2 was effective before the Arrêté. Page 74 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) year were to be paid in three or four installments. Following the initial rounds of payments and to reduce the likelihood of strikes and stabilize CTs in the schools and classrooms, the AF would finance the regular (quarterly) payment of CTs subsidies for 24 more months covering the school years 2017-18 and 2018-19. In addition, the AF finance training and monthly subsidies for 3,000 CT2s to become contractualized48 community teachers (CCTs). Contractualization did not just entail a higher income, it could also open the door for CT2s to become assistant teachers or full teachers. Sub-component 4.2: Community Teachers Subsidies Additional financing in the amount of US$1.3 million equivalent Mobile Payment Mechanism The original sub-component 1.4 (US$1.2 million equivalent) activities were moved under this subcomponent and the activities were scaled up to support: (i) a share of transfer and SMS fees; (ii) the rehabilitation of a room to accommodate the payment control centers; (iii) goods and equipment; (iv) consultant fees for the design of a CT payment database and monitoring procedures; (v) training costs for beneficiary teachers, principals, and Parents Association/Association des Parents d'Élèves - APEs; and (vi) operating costs. 48 The contractualization of CT2s was a policy of the Government’s SIPEA that the MENPC wanted to introduce. The AF was to support a select number of CT2s through a rigorous selection process and the highest performing would be contractualized and put on a “priority” list for integration into the civil service to become CCTs. The list was to be publicly accessible with every CT2 knowing his/her ranking and would introduce transparency in the process and instill confidence in CT2s that they could be integrated into the civil service if they performed well and a position was available. Page 75 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) ANNEX 8. OVERVIEW OF THE CATEGORIES OF TEACHERS IN CHAD CT0 CT1 CT2 Assistant Teachers teachers Recruitment None except BEF + French and Level 1 training and Level 1 + Bac + criteria from proven mathematic test 2 year in-school examination; examination ability to read (elementary level) practicum BEF + and write examination Training NA Level I: Level II: 2 x 75 Assistant Teaching 45 days of training days of training teaching degree: during school delivered by an degree: Obtained after holidays, not ENI and 1 year Obtained after 1 year of sanctioned by a of school level II and teacher training after certification exam. practice examination or BAC regularly after regular 2 assessed by years of teacher IPEP. training Training Structure NA CFC ENI ENI ENI Contract Community Community Community Civil Servant Civil Servant (until financed by the Ministry, then recruited under public contract) Subsidies/Subsidies Variable, 60000, 60000, 196,0000 252,000 (FCFA/month) depending on Statefunded, paid Statefunded, paid community through APICED through APICED (average around 7,000) Numbers 13,019 8,998 2,682 1,923 14,250 (estimate) Share in teaching 32% 22% 7% 5% 34% force Notes: BEF is Brevet d’Études Fondamentales / BPEC; CEFEN is Certificat élémentaire de Fin d'Etudes Normales; CFEN is Certificat de Fin d'études Normales Page 76 of 77 The World Bank Chad Education Sector Reform Project Phase 2 (P132617) ANNEX 9. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS Project Appraisal Document, World Bank, 2013 Restructuring Paper, World Bank, 2020 Project Paper, World Bank, 2017 Aide-Memoires and Implementation Status Reports 2013–2021 Ministry of National Education and Civic Promotion, 2021. Report on the Completion of the Project to Support the Reform of the Education Sector in Chad—Phase 2. Page 77 of 77