The World Bank The Gambia Social Safety Net Project (P167260) REPORT NO.: RES41330 RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF THE GAMBIA SOCIAL SAFETY NET PROJECT APPROVED ON MAY 24, 2019 TO THE REPUBLIC OF THE GAMBIA Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice Africa Region Regional Vice President: Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Nathan M. Belete Regional Director: Amit Dar Practice Manager/Manager: Jehan Arulpragasam Task Team Leader: Penelope Jane Aske Williams June 9, 2020 The World Bank The Gambia Social Safety Net Project (P167260) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS GBOS Gambia Bureau of Statistics GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MIS Management Information System SPS Social Protection Secretariat June 9, 2020 The World Bank The Gambia Social Safety Net Project (P167260) BASIC DATA Product Information Project ID Financing Instrument P167260 Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Current EA Category Not Required (C) Not Required (C) Approval Date Current Closing Date 24-May-2019 29-Mar-2024 Organizations Borrower Responsible Agency The Republic of The Gambia National Nutrition Agency Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO To improve the coordination of social assistance activities and increase inclusion of the extreme poor in the Nafa program. OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDO Summary Status of Financing Net Ln/Cr/Tf Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed IDA-D4740 24-May-2019 11-Jun-2019 09-Sep-2019 29-Mar-2024 30.00 2.45 27.30 Policy Waiver(s) Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No June 9, 2020 The World Bank The Gambia Social Safety Net Project (P167260) I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING A. Project Status 1. Overall implementation of the Project is satisfactory, since the Government has made progress on a number of activities and brought on board key project staff required for implementation. The Project was declared effective on September 9, 2019 and a first disbursement of US$ 2.45 million (8 percent) was made. The intra-governmental contracts needed for implementation have all been signed and the four manuals required for implementation (for Social Registry; Nafa Program; Grievance and Redress Mechanism; and Administration and Finance) have been completed and approved. Key positions have been filled, including Procurement Officer and Accounts Assistant and other critical staff have been brought on board (see further below). 2. Progress on the implementation of Component 1: Development of Coordination Mechanisms for the Social Assistance Sector, which mainly focuses on setting up a Social Registry and ensuring an efficient coordination mechanism for social protection is satisfactory. Two key positions for the Social Protection Secretariat (SPS) have been filled by the Government with qualified staff, namely the SPS Coordinator and Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Officer. A Social Registry Manager has however not yet been brought on board. It has been difficult to identify a qualified candidate, but as a short-term measure, the Government is seeking to engage a lower-level staff to be a Database Manager. Premises for the SPS have also been identified, refurbished and partially furnished, however procurement of Information Technology, office and communications equipment and vehicles is still ongoing. A Communications Strategy for the Social Registry has also been developed, but development of the logo and information materials have been slower than anticipated. The Data Protection and Data Privacy Strategy and Policy was approved by Cabinet and a Memorandum of Understanding between the Office of the Vice President and the Gambia Bureau of Statistics (GBOS) was signed, outlining roles and responsibilities for GBOS in listing and data collection for the Social Registry. The listing activity was put on hold due to COVID-19 safe distancing requirements, but may resume shortly with appropriate safety mitigation measures. The Government has also published the Request for Expression of Interests for the development of the Social Registry system and is expected to conclude the short-listing of firms in the next month. This process has taken longer than expected but is anticipated to be concluded before end of 2020. 3. Progress on the implementation of Component 2: Nafa Program of Cash Transfers to the Eligible Extreme Poor and Social and Behavioral Change Communication, which focuses on supporting the implementation of the Nafa Program, is also satisfactory. The Government has made important progress on the design and implementation mechanisms. The recruitment of a Payment Service Provider (PSP) is under way (hiring the PSP is a disbursement condition for the cash transfers). The Terms of Reference for the development of a Management Information System (MIS) for the Nafa program are also ready, and the procurement process has been launched. Further, an M&E Strategy has been prepared for the program and initial designs for a logo and information brochures for potential beneficiaries and other stakeholders have been developed. Lastly, the Social and Behavioural Change modules have almost been finalized and a Grievance Redress Mechanism (GRM) Focal Point has been designated and a GRM Committee formed. B. Rationale for Restructuring The World Bank The Gambia Social Safety Net Project (P167260) 4. The main rationale for the restructuring of the Project is to respond to a request from the Government of The Gambia to enable them to support a much larger caseload of households to cope with the negative economic effects due to the COVID-19 pandemic for a limited period, through the provision of cash transfers using resources under the Project. 5. The spread of COVID-19 is expected to lead to a serious economic downturn in The Gambia and have direct negative impacts on households. The economic downturn and the pandemic are expected to impact household welfare in The Gambia through at least four channels: first, decline of income from labor markets; second, rising food prices, especially for imported goods; and third, decline of remittances from abroad. Lower economic activity, a consequence of international travel bans and social distancing, is likely to trigger job losses, especially in the service sector which is concentrated in urban areas. For instance, authorities estimate a loss of 50 to 100 thousand direct jobs due to negligible tourism activity over the next six months (through the tourism off- season), and consequences are likely to increase, especially if travel bans remain in place beyond the start of the tourist season in October 2020 and/or the economic downturn in sending countries reduces bookings. The negative impact of job losses on household welfare is likely to be bigger among informal workers, who do not receive any employment-related benefits, and workers with short term contracts. The State of Public Emergency announced on March 25, 2020 and extended by the President on May 20, 2020 for a further 21 days, limits the size of gatherings, requires transportation to operate at half capacity and could constrain access to inputs (fertilizer) and output markets, which are likely to increase food prices. While some food markets remain open, interruptions to supply chains could undermine the functioning of markets: the ‘lumos’ that provide opportunities for rural smallholder farmers and middlemen to buy and sell basic goods remain closed, and producers and consumers might face difficulties to buy and sell products (especially if transported over distance). 6. Other factors also risk pushing households into poverty. The Gambia, being a net food importer, also faces risks arising from higher import prices due to disruptions in global food markets. Limitations to free movement, and closure of public institutions (including schools and training centers) will disrupt learning and, combined with job losses, could potentially lead to permanent losses in human capital for children, especially from poor households. Remittances from abroad, on which many Gambians depend, are expected to decline, as are the transfers made by workers in urban areas to their rural families. The spread of COVID-19 is likely to impact all households, but due to a lack of resilience and a larger share of total expenditures on food, poor households, will be most vulnerable. 7. The Government has announced a plan to help households cope with the negative economic impacts and development partners are planning various interventions. The Government has commenced a one-off donation of food (rice, sugar and oil) to all provincial households and half the metropolitan households in the country for a total estimated cost of D731 million (US$14.6 million). The Gambia has very limited fiscal space, but space is expected to emerge from tight expenditure controls and better expenditure prioritization, lower spending on goods and services, the disbursement of US$21.3 million from the International Monetary Fund, and a (brief) windfall from declining oil prices. Development partners are also planning support, in a number of areas including: the United National Development Programme with a one-off US$100 transfer to 1500 households in urban areas followed by a second transfer to people living with HIV/AIDS and disabled persons; International Trade Center with support for Small and Medium Enterprises; the United Nations Children’s Fund with a one-off cash transfer of D1,500.00 to 6,000 lactating mothers that were beneficiaries of the Building Resilience through Social Transfer for The World Bank The Gambia Social Safety Net Project (P167260) Nutrition Security in The Gambia in rural areas through EU Support and cash and in-kind transfer to 900 household with children; Food and Agriculture Organization with the distribution of agricultural inputs (seeds, fertilizer, tools) in rural areas; and the World Food Programme (WFP) redirecting their school meals program in food rations to households, as well as providing food, combined with cash transfers based on a nationwide vulnerability assessment. 8. In this context, the Government of The Gambia has requested the World Bank to restructure the Social Safety Net Project to enable them to use some of the project resources to support rural households temporarily in responding to COVID-19. In a letter dated May 4 2020, the Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs requested the use of project financing to support more rural households with cash transfers as a complement to its food transfer to ease the economic burden, providing much needed income support as well as stimulate the local economy. The revised “Nafa Quick” Program would reach around 80,000 affected households in 30 rural districts in a near-universal approach, using an exclusion filter to ensure that the households who will not need the support do not benefit from the intervention. The support which consists of a cash transfer value of D1500 per month would be provided for a period of four months to take households through the June-September lean season. The “Nafa Quick” will help to prevent people falling into poverty and prevent those who are already poor from becoming even poorer. II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES 9. The existing World Bank financed Social Safety Net Project provides an opportunity to support affected households. The current Project Development Objective is to improve the coordination of social assistance activities and increase inclusion of the extreme poor in the Nafa program. The current design of the Nafa Program aims to provide regular cash transfers to 15,606 extreme poor rural households (170,000 individuals) for three years in twenty of the poorest rural districts in The Gambia. It also supports the establishment of the delivery systems for such a safety net program. The Nafa Program provides an opportunity for the Government to widen the scope of the targeting and provide temporary support to households affected by the COVID-19 prevention measures and broader economic downturn. This temporary expansion is being called “Nafa Quick” and is reflected in a revised PDO: to improve the coordination of social assistance activities, provide temporary social assistance support to rural households in the wake of COVID-19, and increase inclusion of the extreme poor in the Nafa program. 10. The proposed change to the Project would widen the scope of the target group of Component 2 necessitating a change in the title of Component 2. The implementing arrangements would remain the same and the financing categories and amounts would remain the same, but the target group for “Nafa Quick” would be widened to enable support to around 60,000 rural households in thirty Social Registry Districts for four months. The title of Component 2: Nafa Program of Cash Transfers to the Eligible Extreme Poor and Social and Behavioral Change Communication will therefore change to ‘Cash Transfers to eligible households and Social and Behavioral Change Communication’ to reflect this broadening of the Nafa Program beyond the extreme poor to rural poor. Following the implementation of the “Nafa Quick” intervention, the Project would still continue to support the regular Nafa Program, targeting about 15,606 extreme poor households as originally planned, but for just a further 18 months - a shorter period than initially envisioned - due to the financing gap created by the “Nafa Quick” intervention. An additional Project Development Indicator would be added to track the “number of households The World Bank The Gambia Social Safety Net Project (P167260) benefitting from the “Nafa Quick” intervention” and the overall targets of individuals supported by the Social Safety Net project would also be revised upwards (from 170,000 extreme poor individuals to 654,000 individuals) to include all those receiving temporary support (of which the extreme poor are a subset). The implementation arrangements of the “Nafa Quick” and the regular Nafa Program are set out in the Project Operational Manual. 11. The projected disbursements and implementation schedule would also be revised. Based on the rapid implementation of the “Nafa Quick” program, it is expected that the restructured project would disburse the majority of the funds in the first full year of implementation. The implementation of the regular Nafa Program would benefit from the implementation experience of the “Nafa Quick” program and it is expected that the 15,606 extreme poor households would be identified to continue receiving benefits by the end of September 2020. Since other interventions, such as the creation of the Social Registry and the capacity strengthening of the Government to better coordinate social protection interventions in the country, would still continue, the project closing date would remain unchanged for now. III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Project's Development Objectives ✔ Results Framework ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Disbursement Estimates ✔ Implementing Agency ✔ DDO Status ✔ PBCs ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Overall Risk Rating ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ EA category ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ Financial Management ✔ The World Bank The Gambia Social Safety Net Project (P167260) Procurement ✔ Implementation Schedule ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ Economic and Financial Analysis ✔ Technical Analysis ✔ Social Analysis ✔ Environmental Analysis ✔ IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S) OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_PDO_TABLE PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE Current PDO To improve the coordination of social assistance activities and increase inclusion of the extreme poor in the Nafa program. Proposed New PDO To improve the coordination of social assistance activities, provide temporary social assistance support to rural households in the wake of COVID-19, and increase inclusion of the extreme poor in the Nafa program. OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_COMPONENTS_TABLE COMPONENTS Current Current Proposed Proposed Cost Action Component Name Component Name Cost (US$M) (US$M) Development of coordination Development of coordination mechanisms for the social 6.00 No Change mechanisms for the social 6.00 assistance sector assistance sector Nafa Program of Cash Transfers Cash Transfers to eligible to the Eligible Extreme Poor and households and Social and 22.00 Revised 22.00 and Social and Behavioral Change Behavioral Change Communication Communication Project Management and Project Management and 3.00 No Change 3.00 Capacity Building Capacity Building TOTAL 31.00 31.00 The World Bank The Gambia Social Safety Net Project (P167260) OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_DISBURSEMENT_TABLE DISBURSEMENT ESTIMATES Change in Disbursement Estimates Yes Year Current Proposed 2019 0.00 0.00 2020 1,881,330.00 8,000,000.00 2021 2,937,480.00 11,000,000.00 2022 5,518,830.00 4,500,000.00 2023 9,924,210.00 3,500,000.00 2024 9,738,150.00 3,000,000.00 2025 0.00 0.00 2026 0.00 0.00 . The World Bank The Gambia Social Safety Net Project (P167260) . Results framework COUNTRY: Gambia, The The Gambia Social Safety Net Project Project Development Objectives(s) To improve the coordination of social assistance activities and increase inclusion of the extreme poor in the Nafa program. Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 Improved coordination of social assistance activities More effective steering committee Four "effective" quarterly Four "effective" quarterly Four "effective" quarterly meetings 0.00 meetings (Text) meetings per year meetings per year per year Number of programs using the Social 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 Registry (Number) Provide temporary social assistance support to rural households in the wake of COVID-19 (Action: This Objective is New) Number of households benefiting from the temporary 'Nafa Quick' intervention 0.00 60,000.00 (Number) Rationale: The benefit will be of short duration (two payments over a four-month period in mid-2020). The benefit is near-universal with voluntary self- Action: This indicator is New exclusion for the wealthy. Increased inclusion of the extreme poor in the Nafa Program Beneficiaries of social safety net 0.00 654,000.00 654,000.00 programs (CRI, Number) The World Bank The Gambia Social Safety Net Project (P167260) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 Rationale: The targets for this indicator have been revised for the first year, because of the Nafa Quick program. The end target has also been revised because Action: This indicator has been Revised of the Nafa Quick program. Number of households identified as extremely poor included in the Nafa 0.00 2,715.00 11,012.00 15,606.00 program (Number) PDO Table SPACE Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Development of Co-ordination Mechanisms for the Social Assistance Sector Social Registry established (Yes/No) No Yes Data collection for Social Registry in selected districts No Yes completed (Yes/No) Rationale: The target for concluding the data collection for the Social Registry has been postponed by one year due to the ongoing Action: This indicator has been Revised pandemic and subsequent delays in the data collection exercise. Number of households entered in the Social Registry 0.00 15,000.00 (Number) National Monitoring and Evaluation framework established No Yes (Yes/No) Social Protection Secretariat established (Yes/No) No Yes The World Bank The Gambia Social Safety Net Project (P167260) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Annual report produced by the Secretariat on key indicators using the Social Registry and National M&E Framework No Yes (Yes/No) Program of Cash Transfers and Social and Behavioral Change Communications for targeted beneficiaries (Action: This Component has been Revised) Cash transfer program for the extreme poor established (Yes/No) No Yes Percentage of beneficiary households receiving the right 0.00 80.00 amount of cash on time (Percentage) Percentage of beneficiary households selecting a female 0.00 75.00 household member as cash transfer recipient (Percentage) Percentage of beneficiary households that have either 0.00 80.00 adequate or good food consumptions scores (Percentage) Cumulative amount transferred directly to beneficiaries 0.00 16,854,111.00 (Amount(USD)) Program Management Information System established No Yes (Yes/No) Program Grievance Redress Mechanism established (Yes/No) No Yes Percentage of grievances that are classified and channeled 0.00 75.00 through agreed resolution channels (Percentage) Percentage of grievances classified as resolved in grievance 0.00 50.00 redress mechanism (Percentage) Social and Behavioral Change program accompanying the cash No Yes transfer established (Yes/No) Number of people trainedon SBCC (training of trainers) 0.00 2,000.00 (Number) Number of beneficiary households attending the behavioural 0.00 11,705.00 change sessions (Number) The World Bank The Gambia Social Safety Net Project (P167260) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Number of beneficiary households that start or increase 0.00 30.00 savings activities (Percentage) Number of households that start or increase 0.00 30.00 entrepreneurship activity (Percentage) Percentage of beneficiaries with increased knowledge of 0.00 50.00 measures to improve human capital (Percentage) Percentage of Nafa Quick payments made before the end of the 0.00 70.00 lean season (Percentage) Rationale: Two payments are expected during the lean season. This indicator tracks the percentage of payments made by Payment Action: This indicator is New Service Providers before the end of the lean season. IO Table SPACE The World Bank The Gambia Social Safety Net Project (P167260)