FALL 2021 EDITION 1 Mobility Development AND I N N O V A T I O N S , P O L I C I E S A N D P R A C T I C E S FALL 2021 EDITION MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES FALL 2021 EDITION ©2021 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This volume is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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Transport publications are available on-line at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/ MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES FALL 2021 EDITION Contents A message from the World Using Geospatial Analysis to Bank’s Vice President Calculate Flooding Impacts for Infrastructure on Urban Accessibility 4 in Matola, Mozambique 30 A Note from the Editor-in-Chief Quantifying the Health Co- 6 Benefits of Active Mobility: Developing Tools for Health Impact Assessments of Mobility on Demand Transport Choices in Five (MOD) and Mobility Latin American Cities as a Service (MaaS): Similarities, Differences, 42 and Potential Implications for Transportation in the Changing Transport Developing World in Pakistan 10 58 Toward Greening Response to COVID-19 Transport in India Employment Creation 22 through Infrastructure Investment 72 4 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Riccardo Puliti Vice President for A message from the World Infrastructure, The World Bank Bank’s Vice President for Infrastructure I t is my pleasure to introduce this first But even though the current context edition of Mobility and Development: has made transport development more Innovations, Policies, and Practices, a relevant than ever, it is also pushing us new periodical produced by the World to be more flexible and innovative. Bank’s Transport Global Practice. To answer the call, it has become We are experiencing an era of excep- increasingly important for experts across tional change that has highlighted the the transport sector to share their knowl- critical role mobility and connectivity will edge and develop cutting-edge solutions have to play in building a more sustain- together. able, more resilient world. FALL 2021 EDITION 5 Riccardo Puliti is the Vice President for Infrastructure at the World Bank. In this position he leads the institution’s global efforts to build effective infrastructure in developing and emerging markets That is precisely the motivation behind and supports the World Bank Group’s the Mobility and Development periodical. strategic business priorities, such as the By fostering knowledge exchange and climate change action plan. He oversees collaboration between clients, partners, the Bank’s critical work across energy educational institutions, and many and transport sectors, digital devel- others, we hope this new series will help opment, and efforts to provide access strengthen our infrastructure knowledge to renewable energy and low-carbon and solutions even further. transportation and quality infrastructure services to communities through pub- Many thanks to the authors and con- lic-private partnerships. Infrastructure tributors of this inaugural edition and represents around USD 75 billion of the to the Transport Global Knowledge Unit Bank’s portfolio. Click here to read more. for initiating this medium to further the dialogue with our stakeholders around the globe. Riccardo Puliti 6 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Binyam Reja Global Manager, A Note from the Transport Global Practice, The World Bank Editor-in-Chief W elcome to Mobility and external stakeholders, including World Development: Innovations, Bank senior management, staff from Policies, and Practices, an online other global practices (GPs), donors, and periodical launched by the World Bank’s development partners, academia, and Transport Global Practice to disseminate policy makers in low- and middle-income policy-oriented and practice-ready pub- countries. lications affecting the transport sector worldwide. In each issue, we will explore For this inaugural issue, we have chosen timely topics and key trends in mobility to focus on Low-carbon and Resilient and logistic sector influencing wider Mobility in a Post-COVID-19 World, a theme development outcomes through original, that is perhaps unavoidable considering unpublished articles contributed by both the pandemic and its cross-cutting World Bank staff and guest authors. The impacts already reshaping the world articles in the periodical aim to engage — as we also continue efforts to defuse with wider audiences and internal and the mounting threat of climate change. FALL 2021 EDITION 7 various stakeholders and the potential for partnerships to address spatial, temporal, and other service gaps — par- ticularly in response to pandemic-related changes in travel behavior and public transit service. Then, attention shifts to creating and overseeing a greener, more integrated and energy-efficient transport sector in India, thanks to a multipronged strategy proposed by O.P. Agarwal and Chirag Gajjar of World Resources Institute India. Working toward its renewable energy commitments under the nation- ally determined contributions (NDCs), Agarwal and Gajjar note that India must include decarbonizing transport in the effort to meet these commitments. They propose that an integrated approach to sector policy led by a multi-ministry We are only now beginning to adapt, mission could hold the key to creating a analyze, and sort out ways in which the more sustainable transport in India. transport sector can move forward and thrive in this new reality. Our World Bank staff articles navigate the state of transport in several global Accordingly, our writers delve into topics regions. First up is Africa, where Xavier relevant to the transport sector in a Espinet Alegre and Fatima Arroyo post-pandemic world where climate Arroyo discuss how geospatial analysis change presents an increasingly complex is helping researchers gauge and challenge. Our first guest article, con- mitigate the impact of flooding on tributed by Susan Shaheen and Adam urban transport in Mozambique. Their Cohen of the University of California, analysis provides a better understanding Berkeley, looks at how the evolution of transport disruptions in and around of two new, and complementary, Maputo, the capital of Mozambique, approaches to mobility is shaping the and the resulting losses in the public’s future of transportation, especially in accessibility to reach places of work or emerging economies. In addition to ex- seek employment opportunities (EOs). plaining the similarities and differences In turn, the data is helping city planners between the two approaches (Mobility make essential transport systems more on Demand and Mobility as a Service), resilient to the increasingly frequent Shaheen and Cohen discuss the role of urban flooding in the Greater Maputo 8 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Area — and more resilient transport systems will lead to more reliable access to jobs and EOs, despite the ever-present challenge of climate-induced flooding. Moving to Latin America, Felipe Targa, Juan Pablo Orjuela, and Daniel Gil Sánchez explore how to better evaluate the health benefits of nonmotorized transport policies. While case studies in five bustling Latin American cities indicate increased use of nonmotorized Binyam Reja serves as the Global transport modes could help reduce Practice Manager for the Transport in traffic-related injuries, the renewed the Infrastructure Vice Presidency of the interest in two-wheeled motorized vehi- World Bank. Dr. Reja oversees the World cles — especially during the COVID-19 Bank’s Transport Global Unit’s knowledge pandemic — could lead to higher road program, analytical studies, technical fatalities. New tools, being developed support to operational units, partnerships, by the World Bank based on joint and corporate mandates. He directs an research conducted with the University extensive technical assistance program of Cambridge and the University of and analytical studies and leads a team Oxford, are set to help policy makers of technical professionals and experts in better estimate the health impacts of the delivery of the program. Prior to being their cities’ urban mobility plans, use the selected to this position in November resulting data in cost-benefit analyses, 2020, Dr. Reja was the Regional Practice and garner political support for greater Manager for China, Mongolia, and Central active mobility. Asia where he oversaw a lending program totaling US$8 billion for China, Mongolia, Next, Said Dahdah, Hasan Afzal Zaidi, and Central Asia covering all subsectors, and John H. Winner take us to South including urban transport, BRT, metros, Asia for a discussion on how the integra- highways, railways, intermodal freight tion and strengthening of vital transport transportation, and logistics. He holds a systems is connecting far-flung urban Ph.D. in Economics from the University centers in Pakistan. As Pakistan’s largest of California, Irvine, and attended the city, Karachi serves as a major industrial Executive Education program at Harvard’s hub and home to two major seaports, Kennedy School of Government. FALL 2021 EDITION 9 which handle almost all of Pakistan’s and unemployment. BBB offers a re- overseas trade by volume. Continued newed opportunity to use infrastructure economic growth in Pakistan depends investments to create employment. Using upon increased freight movements to experiences and data from a number of and from these ports, improvements countries, this article outlines a process to the surface transport infrastructure, for and describes elements essential and the policy objective of significantly to the design of programs to maximize increasing the volume of port traffic employment. With multiple options moving by rail. With this in mind, the available, no one single solution fits all World Bank study analyzes the capacity situations, and requires careful consider- of the existing network and considers ation and planning by industries, services, which of the various proposed solutions construction, and agriculture. would be most effective, including greater involvement of the private sector. We thank our contributors for sharing their research with us in what we hope Finally, James Markland, Muneeza is an inviting and accessible format. We Alam, Mridula Singh, and Sudhashree trust that you, our readers — whether as Chandrashekar widen the scope, looking sector experts or members of a broader, at how targeted infrastructure investment though equally interested, audience — could help shape employment creation will in turn engage with, gain insights worldwide in the aftermath of COVID-19. into, and be inspired by how transport is As countries and organizations plan their adapting to the post-COVID-19 world. routes to economic recovery, many have adopted Building Back Better (BBB) as Have a transport-related topic you would a mantra. A key element of BBB is the like us to explore in future issues? Reach commitment to ensure a low-carbon, out to the editorial team with your sug- resilient infrastructure moving forward. gestions at WBGTransport@worldbank.org. However, economic stabilization will only be achieved if BBB also addresses poverty Binyam Reja 10 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Authors: Susan Shaheen and Adam Mobility on Demand Cohen, University of California, Berkeley (MOD) and Mobility as a Service (MaaS): Similarities, Differences, and Potential Implications for Transportation in the Developing World FALL 2021 EDITION 11 MaaS, this paper discusses the role of various stakeholders and the potential for partnerships to address spatial, temporal, and other service gaps particularly in response to pandemic changes in travel behavior and public transit service. About the Authors Discussion includes developments from the developing world, such as for-hire services, jitneys; informal ride services; and international global benchmarking data from carsharing and bikesharing. This article features lessons learned and best practices for support mobility Dr. Susan Shaheen innovations, such as considerations to is a professor in encourage physical, information, and the department of civil engineering fare payment integration, and con- and codirector of cludes with a discussion of emerging the Transportation innovations in shared automated Sustainability vehicles (SAVs), last-mile delivery, and Research Center I (TSRC) at the n Europe and North America, two advanced air mobility (AAM). University of complementary approaches to inte- California, Berkeley. grated mobility and multimodal access In cities around the world, innovative to public and private transportation and emerging mobility strategies offer services are evolving in parallel. In the consumers more options than ever United States and Canada, consumers before to access mobility, goods, and are assigning economic values to services. As these services grow in many transportation services and making regions of the world, consumers are mobility decisions (including the engaging in more complex multimodal decision not to travel and instead have decision-making processes. Rather Adam Cohen is a goods delivered) based on cost, travel than making decisions between modes, senior research and wait time, number of connections, travelers are linking modes together to manager at the convenience, and other attributes — a optimize route, travel time, and cost. Fare Transportation Sustainability concept commonly referred to as and digital information are being inte- Research Center Mobility on Demand (MOD). In Europe, grated in an effort to enhance consumer (TSRC) at the services that allow travelers to sign up convenience, increase transparency, and University of for mobility services in one bundle are reduce costs. California, Berkeley. gaining popularity — a concept known as Mobility as a Service (MaaS). In Two approaches to the multimodal addition to explaining the similarities integration of public and private and differences between MOD and transportation services are evolving with 12 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES particular speed, one more popular in North In Europe, services allowing travelers to America and the other more popular across access bundled mobility services are be- Europe. In North America, consumers are coming more popular — a concept known assigning economic values to transporta- as mobility as a service (MaaS). This article tion services and making mobility decisions discusses the similarities, differences, and (including the decision not to travel and relationship between these two concepts; choosing instead having a good or service it also explores potential applications and delivered) based on cost, travel and wait implications for the developing world. time, number of connections, convenience, Table 1 provides a list of existing and and other attributes — a concept commonly emerging shared mobility modes found referred to as mobility on demand (MOD). within MOD and MaaS. Table 1. Existing and Emerging Shared Mobility Modes Advanced air mobility Auto rickshaw Bikesharing Carsharing A broad concept focusing on A motorized version of the pulled A service that provides A service that provides the emerging aviation markets and rickshaw or cycle rickshaw travelers on-demand, traveler with on-demand, use cases passenger mobility, sometimes used as a taxi. Typically, short-term access to a shared short-term access to a shared goods delivery, and emergency auto rickshaws have three wheels fleet of bicycles, usually for a fleet of motor vehicles typically services for urban, suburban, and and an open frame. Frequently fee. Bikesharing service through a membership; the rural operations. Advanced air referred to as “baby taxis” in providers may own, maintain, traveler pays a fee for use. mobility includes local use cases Bangladesh; "bajaj" in Tanzania and and provide charging (if Carsharing service providers within a 50-mile (80 kilometers) Ethiopia; "toktok" in Egypt; “tuk-tuk” applicable) for the bicycle typically own and maintain the radius in rural or urban areas, and in Cambodia, Madagascar, South fleet. vehicle fleet and provide intraregional use cases within the Africa, Sri Lanka, and Uganda; insurance, fuel or charging, and range of a few hundred miles. "keke-marwa" in Nigeria; "Raksha" in parking. Sudan; and “kekeh” in Liberia. Courier network e-hail Jitney Microtransit services (CNS) Smartphone apps that Typically an informal, unlicensed, A technology-enabled transit A commercial for-hire delivery supplement street hails by or illegal for-hire private transit or service that typically uses service for monetary compensation allowing on-demand hailing of taxicab operation. shuttles or vans to provide using an online application or taxis. The e-hail service option pooled on-demand platform (such as a website or also provides travelers with transportation with dynamic smartphone app) to connect freight prearranged and/or on-demand routing. (packages, food, and so on) with access to a ride for a fee using a couriers using their personal, digitally enabled application or rented, or leased vehicles, bicycles, platform (for example, or scooters. smartphone apps) to connect travelers with drivers using their personal, rented, or leased motor vehicles. The latter is commonly Motorcycle and referred to as “transportation Pedicab Pooling network companies” (or TNCs) moped sharing and “ride-hailing” in the United A for-hire ride service in which a The formal or informal A service that provides the traveler States and Commonwealth cyclist transports traveler(s) on a sharing of rides between on-demand, short-term access to a countries and “voiture de tricycle with a passenger drivers and travelers with shared fleet of motorcycles and/or transport avec chauffeur”(or VTC) compartment. similar origin-destination mopeds for a fee. Service providers in francophone countries. pairings using mopeds, typically own and maintain the motorcycles, or motor vehicle fleet and provide insurance, vehicles. Riders may share fuel or charging, and parking. some costs of the trip (fuel, for example). Scooter sharing Shared automated Taxi A service that provides the traveler vehicle (SAV) A service that provides the traveler on-demand, short-term access to a A service allowing automated on-demand, short-term access to a shared fleet of scooters for a fee. vehicles to be shared among shared fleet of scooters for a fee. Scooter sharing service providers multiple users. SAVs can be Scooter sharing service providers typically own, maintain, and provide summoned on-demand or typically own, maintain, and provide fuel or charging (if applicable) for the operated via a fixed-route fuel or charging (if applicable) for the scooter fleet. Service providers may service. scooter fleet. Service providers may also provide insurance. also provide insurance. Source: Original table produced for this publication. FALL 2021 EDITION 13 Mobility on Demand (MOD) MOD is based on the principle that trans- and connected multimodal network. portation is a commodity where modes Passenger modes facilitated through MOD have economic values distinguishable providers include: carsharing; bikesharing; in terms of cost, journey time, wait time, ridesharing (carpooling and vanpooling); number of connections, convenience as for-hire and e-hail services such as taxis, well as other attributes. MOD offers users motorcycle taxis, auto rickshaws, and so on; access to mobility, goods, and services on motorcycle, moped, and scooter sharing; demand by dispatching or using informal microtransit; public transportation; and shared transportation services (for ex- other emerging transportation strategies ample, autorickshaws and jitneys), shared such as shared automated vehicles, mobility, delivery services, and public trans- advanced air mobility, and so forth (see portation strategies through an integrated figure 1). Figure 1. Examples of Classic, Innovative, and Emerging Shared Modes in the Developing World Innovating & Emerging Classic Shared Shared Modes Modes • Advanced Air Mobility • Auto Rickshaws • Bikesharing e-Hail of • Jitneys • Carsharing Classic • Pedicabs • e-Hail of Innovative Modes Shared • Public Transportation • Courier Network Services Modes • Taxi • Microtransit • Motorcycle and Moped Sharing • Scooter Sharing • Shared Automated Vehicles Source: Original table produced for this publication. 14 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES The most innovative to the supply side of the MOD ecosystem, the MOD concept also emphasizes passenger services transportation systems management to optimize operations of the transportation typically incorporate trip network, or managing demand. Whereas planning and booking, the supply side of the marketplace includes transportation services for mobility or real-time information, goods and service delivery, the demand side of the marketplace is comprised of and fare payment into a travelers and goods, including their choices single user interface. and preferences. At its core, the MOD concept envisions multimodal operations management in which a public agency: (1) receives data from all aspects of the system, Shared mobility in the developing world (2) aggregates the data into an overall is not new. The use of human-powered picture of current and predicted conditions, rickshaws or two-wheeled carts has a long and (3) identifies challenges considering a history. Today, auto rickshaws — motorized range of operational objectives (see figure versions of the pulled rickshaw or cycle 2). In the future, the concept of using MOD rickshaw — are beginning to employ e-hail to manage the supply and demand sides apps in a number of regions around the of the network could be pivotal in helping world. Known in Tanzania and Ethiopia as guide consumers to more environmentally “bajaj,” in Egypt as “toktok,” in Nigeria as sustainable choices. “keke-marwa” and in Sudan as “Raksha,” and in Liberia as “kekeh,” drivers can purchase Public agencies can in turn use this informa- the vehicles for US$3,500 (€3,100). Drivers tion and pair it with policy interventions to can be hired at a daily rate of around US$25 more effectively manage the transportation in many parts of Africa. Both the sharing network. Pricing schemes are the most and electrification of these mobility options common ways public agencies influence could help the developing world reduce demand of the transportation network. For greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and work example, an agency might use congestion toward achieving climate action goals. pricing (a system of charging roadway users for excess use during peak periods) The most innovative passenger services to help manage demand. In the 1970s, typically incorporate trip planning and Singapore was one of the first developing booking, real-time information, and fare nations to employ a combination of policies, payment into a single user interface. The such as road pricing and public transit most advanced courier services incorporate improvements, which has contributed to robotic delivery, app-based courier network that country’s low motorization rates and services (CNS), and unmanned aircraft congestion management. systems such as delivery drones. In addition FALL 2021 EDITION 15 Figure 2. USDOT’s Architecture for MOD and Multimodal Management Source: Shaheen et al. 2017. https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/34258. Note: This figure illustrates the U. S. Department of Transportation’s (USDOT) vision of a multimodal operations management approach that can interact and/or influence the supply and demand of the transportation network as well as the key enablers and stakeholders of this ecosystem. 16 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Mobility as a Service (MaaS) Another multimodal concept, known as an app-based service in Sweden, offers MaaS, is emerging in Europe, Asia, and households a mobility subscription in place Australia. MaaS is an integrated mobility of vehicle ownership. The subscription marketplace where travelers can access allows households to prepurchase mobility multiple transportation services over a access in a variety of increments on multiple single digital interface. Brokering travel modes, operating like a multimodal “digital with suppliers, repackaging, and reselling punch card” for a number of transportation it as a bundled package is a distinguishing services, such as public transportation, characteristic of MaaS. For example, UbiGo, carsharing, rental cars, and taxis (figure 3). Figure 3. UbiGo Mobility App as a Service Interface Source: UbiGo (https://www.ubigo.me/en/home). FALL 2021 EDITION 17 Similarities and Differences of MOD and MaaS While MOD and MaaS are similar in a However, the growing reliance of MOD number of ways, the primary emphasis and MaaS on digital platforms and banking of MaaS is passenger mobility, such as relationships can raise a number of social allowing travelers to seamlessly plan, equity concerns. The requirements for users book, and pay for a multimodal trip on a to have smartphones with high-speed data pay-as-you-go and/or subscription basis. packages could be a barrier to low-income In contrast, MOD emphasizes the com- and rural households who might not be modification of passenger mobility, goods able to afford or lack data coverage needed delivery, and transportation systems man- to access app-based mobility platforms. agement. Key similarities between MOD Similarly, many of these app-based services and MaaS include their mutual emphasis could require debit or credit cards for on physical, fare, and digital multimodal payment and, in some cases, collateral integration. for vehicles or equipment. This could be a barrier for underbanked or unbanked Recently, MOD and MaaS have been consumers. Alternatives such as cash converging even more, as the public and payment options, digital kiosks, telephone private sectors increasingly emphasize services, and non-technology-based access concepts of integrated mobility. A growing (such as street hailing) could help overcome number of digital services are offering some of these challenges. connected travelers with real-time infor- mation and integrated payment services that can simplify trip planning and payment for multiple transportation modes. As a result, these conveniences have encouraged Growing reliance of MOD and travelers to: (1) search routes, schedules, MaaS on digital platforms near-term arrival predictions, and connec- tions; (2) compare travel times, connection and banking relationships information, distance, and costs across mul- tiple routes and transportation modes; and can raise a number of (3) access to real-time travel information for social equity concerns. a journey — all typically from a smartphone application. Particularly in environments where transportation services can be infrequent or unreliable, these services have the potential to help bridge information gaps and enhance traveler decision making with real-time and actionable information throughout an entire journey. 18 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES MOD and MaaS in the Developing World In some cases, the developing world is “leap app to: (1) dispatch a variety of mobility frogging,” or bypassing prior evolutionary services (such as motorcycles, mopeds, states, the developed world in the features auto rickshaws, and taxis); (2) deliver cargo; and level of sophistication of its app-based (3) order groceries, household items, and mobility services. For example, Gozem, durable goods; and (4) pay for goods and a smartphone app and transportation services using a digital wallet (see figure 4). service in the francophone Western and As of March 2021, the Gozem app is active Central Africa, blends MOD and MaaS in Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Côte modalities. What makes Gozem particularly d’Ivoire, Gabon, Mali, Senegal, and Togo. unique is that the app integrates a number During the first quarter of 2020, the service of mobility, delivery, e-commerce, and completed 500,000 rides, as noted in a news payment services. Gozem users can use the article published online by Techpoint.Africa. Figure 4. Screenshots of the Gozem App Source: Gozem (https://website.gozem.co/en/). Sometimes referred to as “super” apps, since 2015, more than 2 million drivers, Gojek claims these multifunctional so-called “lifestyle” and 900,000 merchant partners. Grab, 190 million apps are expanding in other regions of the which operates in Cambodia, Indonesia, downloads developing world. Gojek — which primarily Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, since 2015, operates in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, also integrates a variety of more than Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam — in- shared mobility services (such as e-hail, 2 million drivers, and tegrates shared mobility, parcel and food pooling, auto rickshaws, bikesharing, and 900,000 delivery, moving services, telemedicine, shuttles); food, parcel, and grocery delivery; merchant streaming video, mobile payment, and and a mobile wallet. Other similar “super” partners. business services into a single platform. apps include Paytm in India, Careem in the The service claims 190 million downloads Middle East, and WeChat in China. FALL 2021 EDITION 19 Common MOD and MaaS Partnerships The public sector can play an important • Trip planning partnerships focus role supporting MOD and MaaS, typically on developing and/or integrating through a variety of partnership modes. A multimodal trip planning into a single few common and emerging partnership platform. Common goals of trip plan- approaches include the following: ning partnerships include: (1) increasing consumer trip planning convenience, (2) • First- and last- mile partnerships encouraging multimodal transportation, target use cases that help bridge spatial and (3) reducing barriers to public and gaps and increase access to fixed-route active transportation use; public transportation; • Fare integration partnerships allow • Low-density service partnerships riders to easily pay for trips that span focus on providing supplemental trans- across public and private transportation portation services in built environments modes and allow riders to either pay that may have less frequent public for: (1) each trip leg using the same fare transit service and lower ridership. A medium, or (2) trip legs employing a primary goal of this type of partnership single fare (apportioned to each mobility is to provide gap filling services, in- provider that serves each trip leg on the crease ridership, and reduce operational backend); costs of providing services in suburban, exurban, and rural communities; • Data sharing partnerships include partnering with the private sector to • Off-peak service partnerships em- share a variety of data types to enhance phasize offering alternative late-night local transportation planning, opera- and weekend transportation services tions, trip planning, and fare integration; to provide additional mobility options and during periods of low ridership; • Infrastructure partnerships leverage • Paratransit partnerships are typically public and private sector resources to employed to supplement fixed-route support the development of enabling public transit service to provide flexible infrastructure — such as curbs, bicycle and personalized mobility services for lanes, and other enhancements — to people with disabilities; encourage active transportation and improve safety. 20 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Conclusion Innovative and emerging transportation services, such as shared mobility, MOD, and MaaS, are expanding across the developing world. MOD emphasizes the commodification of passenger mobility and goods delivery and transportation systems management, whereas MaaS primarily focuses on passenger mobility aggregation and subscription services. The public sector can support and leverage MOD and MaaS through a variety of service, infor- mation, fare integration, and data sharing partnerships. In particular, the growth of “super” apps in Africa and Asia are offering consumers all-in-one mobile platforms for a variety of transportation and shopping options, mobile wallets, and other services that, in some cases, offer deeper levels of integration and are more advanced than comparable platforms in Europe and North America. While research on “super” apps is limited, anecdotal evidence suggests that by bundling a variety of consumer services together, these apps have the potential to enhance traveler convenience, multimodal trip planning, and access to goods and services. FALL 2021 EDITION 21 Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank the World Bank, the American Planning Association, the California Department of Transportation, the Mineta Transportation Institute, and the U.S. Department of Transportation for supporting this research. The authors would also like to acknowledge the numerous service providers, public agencies, and other experts and practitioners that provided valuable data and support MOD and MaaS research. References Additional Resources 22 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Authors: O.P. Agarwal and Chirag Gajjar, Toward Greening World Resources Institute India Transport in India W orking towards its renewable urbanization and the economic growth energy commitments under projections, and attending to them at an the nationally determined contribu- early stage will save the country from tions (NDCs), India is well on its way to locking itself into high emission, and installing 175 gigawatts (GW) of gener- high cost, pathways that will be difficult ation capacity by 2022 and has scaled to move out of later. up its targets to 450 GW by 2030. India must now look at decarbonizing This article argues for a four-pronged transport to further its NDC commit- strategy to help reduce emissions ments. While transport contributes from transport, even as the demand about 15 percent of the greenhouse gas of transport grows strongly to support emissions globally, current estimates economic growth. An approach that for India stand closer to 9.7 percent. aims at greater use of cleaner fuels, However, transport sector emissions adopting a preference for sustainable are set to grow rapidly given the pace of transport modes, integrating transport FALL 2021 EDITION 23 After five years of the Paris Agreement, India has made significant progress — by August 2021, India had achieved 39.6 percent nonfossil fuel installed capacity and 100 GWs of RE capacity. Having put itself firmly on a sustainable track in the energy sector, India would be prudent to turn its attention to the transport sector. In 2016, India’s trans- port sector contributed to 13 percent About the Authors of emissions from the energy sector, compared to the global average of 22 percent, with transport projected to be among the country’s fastest growing sectors. In terms of modes of transpor- tation, 90 percent of India’s emissions come from road vehicles, compared O.P. Agarwal is to 72 percent globally. The anticipated currently the chief growth in transport sector emissions is executive officer of World Resources primarily due to the following reasons: Institute India. systems, and optimizing the use of vehicles to minimize idle capacity • The country is rapidly urbanizing. appears to be the best way forward. Despite having 377 million urban resi- However, with transport sector policies dents according to the 2011 census, fragmented across five ministries in this number represented only about the government of India, successful one-third of India’s total population. implementation requires an integrated India’s urban population falls well Chirag Gajjar serves approach, ideally led by a multi- below the world average, where the as head of subnational ministry mission. urban population now stands at more climate action in than 50 percent. United Nations (UN) WRI India’s climate As part of its nationally determined urban population projections indicate program. contributions (NDCs), under the India’s urban population will reach Views expressed in this Paris Agreement, India committed to 850 million by 2050. article are personal increasing its share of nonfossil fuel sources in installed capacity for electricity • Urbanization means higher incomes generation to 40 percent. Additionally, and a higher affordability of personal India also adopted a domestic goal motor vehicles. Given that India’s per of installing 175 gigawatts (GWs) of capita ownership of cars is barely 18 renewable energy (RE) capacity by 2022. per 1,000 — compared to 800 per It has since raised the bar and plans to 1,000 in the United States and 600 install 450 GWs of RE capacity by 2030. per 1,000 in Europe — the likelihood 24 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES of rapid motorization as the country According to the India Energy Outlook urbanizes can only increase. 2021, published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), stated policy scenario (STEPS) • Urbanization also means longer travel energy demand for road transport will distances and thus an increased double by 2040. The scenario assesses demand for travel. This in turn means current policy settings and constraints in more fuel use and higher emissions. which India’s energy sector will grow. The transport sector will function as a key driver The impact of urbanization on motor vehi- for energy demand with a fivefold increase cles is quite staggering. Within seven years expected in per capita car ownership. More the number of motor vehicles has doubled, importantly, robust physical connectivity resulting in more urban congestion, air will be crucial for India to achieve its goal of pollution, and health impacts as well as becoming a US$5 trillion economy. increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport sector. In fact, the Consequently, the transportation sector will growth in transport emissions is outpacing see huge growth in infrastructure, including the growth in energy emissions. Between highways, railways, metros, ports, and 2009 and 2016 the number of motor vehi- airports. However, to adopt a sustainable cles has doubled in India. States like Delhi, pathway, India should act fast by pushing Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil for electrification, efficiency standards, Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh have maintained and switching to clean fuels. Therefore, the high share of motor vehicles. greater attention to the transport sector will be important if India is to reduce the emissions intensity of its gross domestic The impact of urbanization product (GDP) by 35 percent, as committed. This needs to be done urgently to avoid on motor vehicles is quite becoming locked into high energy transport patterns as urban land use gets locked into staggering. Within seven unending sprawl. years the number of motor A firm foundation for a transition toward vehicles has doubled, clean transport can be laid through the following four-step action plan. resulting in more urban congestion, air pollution, and health impacts as well as increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport sector. FALL 2021 EDITION 25 1. Adoption of Cleaner Fuels Moving away from fossil fuels and toward incentives for production and use will clean electricity and green hydrogen must be key for developing a roadmap. Also, be mainstreamed in any plan toward clean transport and storage costs will play a transport, specifically in two areas: significant role in the competitiveness of the hydrogen. If hydrogen must travel • Transport electrification must be before it can be used, the costs of trans- backed by low-carbon electricity mission and distribution could incur In 2013, India announced a National significant costs. These are early days in Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP) the move toward hydrogen, but once it to promote hybrid and electric vehicles has attracted attention the transition is (EVs) over the conventional internal bound to move ahead. combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. To further support the NEMMP, India However, the transition to cleaner fuels is announced two rounds of the Faster not an easy one to envision and achieve, Adoption and Manufacture of EVs and requires a significant network of (FAME) program in 2015 and 2019, both supporting infrastructure to facilitate large- of which offered financial incentives for scale adoption. Among them are primary purchase of vehicles and installation of requirements such as battery charging charging facilities. These incentives have facilities. High battery costs, high charging given a strong fillip to EVs, especially time, and the convenience of the existing buses and shared mobility options, such technology make the transition difficult, as taxis. Several states have announced especially when people’s behavior patterns local level policies to promote the use are aligned with the convenience of the of and manufacture of EVs and their ICE vehicle. These will also need changing, components. accompanied by compelling justifications for why people should change their • Costs will play a key role in transi- driving-related behavior patterns from ICE tioning to hydrogen to EV or hybrid vehicles — not an easy task Several teething problems, such as anywhere. creating frameworks for lending and setting up charging facilities across a And yet, declining battery price, increasing city, have already created challenges energy density of batteries, and research in the transition toward cleaner fuels. on improved battery chemistries is creating In the meantime, a decision has been hope for the future. While India has been taken to set up a hydrogen mission slow to start, the pace is picking up with tasked with developing a compre- several cities looking at a higher share of hensive approach to the adoption of electric buses and electric autorickshaws hydrogen, especially looking at its use as part of their public transport and para- in long distance trucking. Developing transit fleets. 26 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES An important question has been the 17,832 billion passenger-kilometers. The viability of EVs for long-distance freight growth in motorization for mobility is and passenger movements, considering largely driven by two or three wheelers, the limitation in its “range” (currently with passenger cars representing the available batteries need to be charged for a third fastest growing vehicle category in minimum of four hours at an interval of 200 India. Population growth coupled with to 300 kilometers). Hydrogen-based fuel affordability and shortage of reliable could hold the answer to this hurdle, but public transport will ensure continued its technology is still evolving, and costs are growth in private motorization. high, having nnot yet benefited from scale economies. The recent announcement of India is responding to the challenges a National Hydrogen Energy Mission in the associated with private motorization budget for 2021–22 signals the government through policy interventions aimed at of India’s recognition of hydrogen as a fuel improving fuel quality and efficiency. In for the future and could catalyze stronger 2017, corporate average fuel efficiency action in toward this fuel. (CAFE) consumption norms for cars were introduced with an upper limit of 5.49 liters per 100 kilometers. This standard will become more stringent beginning 2. A Shift to Energy- in 2022. Efficient Modes The National Urban Transport Policy Two dimensions factor into the modal shift (NUTP) 2006 strongly recommended in India: first, to persuade the people to the shift from personal motor vehicles shift from personal motor-vehicles to public to public transport and nonmotorized and nonmotorized transport (buses, bicy- modes. Based on these recommenda- cles, and so on) and second, to encourage tions, several Indian states and cities long-distance transport — especially freight have invested massively in public — to shift from road-based systems to rail transport in the past few years. Review or marine. of comprehensive mobility plans of 27 Indian cities revealed that passenger • Modal shift in passenger transport modal shift is second to nonmotorized According to the Ministry of Road transport in strategy. Today, India’s Transport and Highways, the passenger large cities all have operating metro transport activity for 2016–17 totaled rail systems, while they are under con- struction in many smaller and growing Several Indian states cities. Further, the national budget has allocated over US$2.5 billion for public and cities have invested bus systems. In addition, the calls to deploy low-cost metros in smaller cities massively on public transport have provided the needed shot in the in the past few years. arm to boost mass transit. FALL 2021 EDITION 27 • Modal shift in freight transport emissions data associated with the Modal choice in freight is mainly mode of freight transport is largely dictated by travel time and cost for missing from the decision making. most commodities. Time sensitive Further, in WRI India’s analysis of commodities such as perishables and petroleum oil and lubricants (POL), one high value goods always choose the of the 50 commodities included in the fastest mode, while heavy commodities study, 100 percent of POL to Tamil Nadu such as coal, stone, and others opt for and 27 percent to Delhi are transported rail transport as the more cost effective by road from Gujarat. Transporting POL option. Industries use travel time and products from Gujarat to Tamil Nadu distance data to decide the mode of and Delhi by rail instead of road could travel for their goods. Consideration of reduce emissions by three-fourths and the emissions impact is largely missing one-half respectively. Ongoing projects when choosing freight transport modes. such as the Dedicated Freight Corridor With the current modal mix for freight (DFC) could accelerate the modal shift transport skewed toward road transport (see table 1). The eastern and western (60–65 percent), a modal shift would dedicated freight corridors will be require greater use of rail or marine commissioned by June 2022, and 100 transport. Unfortunately, neither of percent electrification of broad-gauge these transport systems offer door- routes will be completed by December to-door services on their own. Doing 2023. These dedicated freight rail so would require both rail and marine corridors could lower India’s cumulative transport to integrate with other modes, railways emissions significantly. Setting particularly short-distance road trans- up a comprehensive logistics division port. Clearly, the cost of transhipments in the Ministry of Commerce and is more taxing than the higher cost of Industries is also a step in the right road transport itself. direction for integrating transport for export cargo. However, a fundamental As stated above, the 2017 World change requires greater integration at Resource Institute (WRI) India internal the institutional level. study showed consideration of Table 1. Dedicated Freight Corridors in India № Dedicated freight corridor Start point Termination point 1 Western dedicated freight corridor Dadri JNPT, Nava Sheva 2 Eastern dedicated freight corridor Ludhiana Dankuni 3 East–West dedicated freight corridor Dankuni Bhusalwal 4 North–South dedicated sub-corridor Vijaywada Itarsi 5 East coast dedicated freight corridor Kharagpur Vijaywada 6 Southern dedicated freight corridor Madgaon Chennai 28 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES 3. Integrating Transport Systems Integrating transport systems is important should be replicated in India. The recent to ensure the lack of door-to-door service merger of the railway budget with the does not compel use of unsustainable general budget is a step in the right direc- modes. Rail and marine systems must tion, though we have to see if that moves coordinate with road transport to offer forward to its next steps. Promising efforts a complete end-to-end service. This will that could enable multimodal transport require integrating fare policies, data, systems include innovating the container schedules, standards, branding, and even size to suit domestic transportation and governance. However, this has been a exploring the use of stacked containers in challenge in India, largely due to the frag- railways, which could help contain the costs mented oversight of transport across five and tariffs for commodities or developing national ministries, as mentioned earlier. feeder routes and multimodal logistics Models such as those in the United States, parks for DFCs to ensure full utilization. United Kingdom, China, the Republic of Korea, and Brazil, each with a single depart- Even at the city level, the problem of ment for transport sector policy making that fragmentation presents a challenge. Though the national Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs is the sole ministry responsible Integrating transport for urban transport policies, the rail and road-based systems in cities operate in systems is important to competition with one another with no integration. Similarly, road construction ensure the lack of door- planning is done separately and land-use to-door service does not planning is also managed as an indepen- dent exercise. As a result, the benefits of compel use of unsustainable door-to-door service are not realized, thus forcing urban commuters to prefer their modes. Rail and marine personal motor vehicles over public trans- systems must coordinate port. While the 2006 NUTP recommended the establishment of unified metropolitan with road transport to offer a transport authorities in cities to help bring about the needed integration, only a few complete end-to-end service. cities have complied so far. The recently set up Kochi Metropolitan Transport Authority, in Kerala, promises to set an example for others to follow. FALL 2021 EDITION 29 4. Optimization of Available Capacity The concept of transport infrastructure today offering pooled services to multiple “optimization” is based on the premise riders on the same routes. The concept of that an empty seat in a moving vehicle is a mobility as a service (MaaS) has also been wasted resource and should be minimized. gaining ground. Such digitally advanced So far overlooked by transport operators integration can help improve utilization of and policy makers alike, this concept is the available transport assets and reduce gaining greater attention within India’s waste of scarce resources. The hassles of existing transport systems. driving on congested roads, the challenges of finding parking, and the love of the In fact, world over, a variety of shared mo- smart phone are collectively changing the bility options are drawing on this premise behavior of young Indians, many of whom and maximizing the available capacity of show a preference for app-based taxis over public transport. On-demand taxis are their personal motor bikes or cars. Conclusion Few countries in the world oversee transport systems in as fragmented a manner as India. Even at the national level, five different ministries are responsible for transport sector policy making — the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, the Ministry of Railways, the Ministry of Shipping, the Ministry of Civil Aviation and the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs. In most other countries, national-level policy making for transport is housed in a single ministry or department that oversees policy making, with implementation handled through various technical agencies. India needs to do this as well. Could a single Ministry of Transport for policy making, with separate agencies responsible only for implementation, strengthen and streamline India’s transport sector? We propose this as a promising solution. 30 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Authors: Xavier Espinet Alegre and Using Geospatial Analysis Fatima Arroyo-Arroyo, The World Bank to Calculate Flooding Impacts on Urban Accessibility in Matola, Mozambique FALL 2021 EDITION 31 Climate change is having a direct impact on accessibility to employment opportunities (EOs) by disrupting transport services during the intense rainy season. ultimately the Greater Maputo Area (GMA). Additionally, the World Bank About the Authors projects urbanization will continue growing in the Maputo exacerbating the risk of urban flooding events. Under this context, the proposed study uses geospatial analysis to gain understanding on accessibility losses Xavier Espinet is a C limate change is having a due to flooding disruption, with the transport economist direct impact on accessibility to aim to ensure climate resilience in- at the World Bank working in the Latin employment opportunities (EOs) by vestments in urban transport Maputo American and The disrupting transport services during are based in both evidence and data. Caribbean region. the intense rainy season. In the area Our analysis reveals that in Matola, for surrounding Maputo, the capital of example — the largest agglomeration Mozambique, frequent flood events in the Maputo metropolitan area — due prevent residents from accessing to flooding disruptions on the transport public transportation, lower traveling network, around 10 percent of people speeds, and create disruptions on the lose more than 50 percent of EOs network — substantially reducing the due to flooding and inaccessible job Fatima Arroyo- ability of people to reach their places of location. The poorest resident would Arroyo works in the work or seek EOs. Unpaved roads, poor experience even deeper reductions Transport Global drainage infrastructure and manage- in their ability to use public transport, Practice, supporting ment as well as the city’s overall lack with reliance on walking increasing the transportation agenda in Africa. of urban planning worsens the effects from 10 to 15 percent of all trips. The of flood events. Floods have become higher incomes, while representing 11 more frequent in recent years and are percent of the population, see the least expected to follow this trend due to impact of flooding, accounting for only climate change effects, thus posing a 3 percent of accessibility losses due to threat to the city’s road network, and flooding-related disruptions. 32 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Climate Impacts and Urban Mobility in Greater Maputo Located on the southeastern coast of Africa, threshold exceeded on 5 percent of rainy Mozambique borders with Tanzania to the days in the current climate of that region or north; Zambia, Malawi and Zimbabwe to the season — will increase by 2060, particularly west; and with South Africa and Swaziland during the dry season (January to June), to the south. Endowed with ample arable according to the World Bank’s climate data land, water, energy as well as mineral projections for Mozambique. resources and newly discovered natural gas offshore, Mozambique has three deep Maputo serves as the country’s main seaports, along with a relatively large financial, business, and commercial potential pool of labor. With four of its six center. With a population of 1.2 million border countries landlocked, and hence (2019) and land area of 347 square dependent on Mozambique as a conduit kilometers, the capital city is geographically to global markets, Mozambique is also the smallest and most densely populated strategically located. The country’s strong province in Mozambique, and has been ties to South Africa underscore the impor- administered as a self-contained separate tance of its economic, political, and social province since 1998. In recent years, development to the stability and growth of residential and industrial development southern Africa as a whole. has spread to the surrounding districts of Matola, Boane, Matuitine, and Marracuene, Social and economic growth continues creating the Maputo Metropolitan Area to be hindered by recurrent climate (AMM), also called Greater Maputo Area impacts. Most recently, due to the impact (GMA). The population of GMA is expected of cyclones Idai and Kenneth, the country to increase from 2.8 million in 2018 to faced an economic slowdown in 2019, with almost 4.0 million by 2035. Currently, jobs GDP growth dropping from 3.4 percent to are mainly concentrated in the city and 2.2 percent. Floods, triggered by cyclones province of Maputo with housing growing and intense rain events, have become more on the outskirts of the cities of Maputo, frequent in recent years and are expected Matola, and Marracuene. This urban and to follow this trend due to climate change economic development can be associated effects, posing a threat the city’s road with a greater need for the mobility of network, and ultimately the Greater Maputo people and goods, and a number of urban Area (GMA). Rainfall projections based infrastructure works have already been on 35 available global circulation models carried out in the recent years (for example, (GCMs) used by the 5th Assessment Report, the Katembe bridge and Circular de Maputo published by the Intergovernmental Panel ring road projects); however, traffic conges- on Climate Change (IPCC), estimate the tion is worsening, which in turn increases number of heavy rainfall events — defined pollution and declining road safety. The as a daily rainfall total greater than the expansion has also overstretched the city’s FALL 2021 EDITION 33 health, education, and transport systems, Public transport is dominated posing enormous challenges to the local governments in their efforts to deliver basic by the unregulated/informal services, provide food, and improve the transport services provided city’s infrastructure. by the private sector. The district of Matola is growing at an ex- ponential pace, doubling its population security concerns. These informal modes over a decade, from 671,000 in 2007 to 1.7 coexist with other regulated modes, such million in 2017, and increasing the density as the municipal-owned bus enterprise from 2,807/km² to 4,400/km2 (see figure (Transporte Public Metropolitana or TPM) 1) The rapid growth has overwhelmed and the commuter rail (MetroBus) (figure 1). the urban infrastructure services, such as transport, not designed to accommodate By disrupting transport services during such a rapid population growth. Residents the intense rainy season, climate change in Matola are highly dependent on public has a direct impact on accessibility. transportation to commute to places of Current flood events prevent residents from employment; however, they suffered from accessing public transportation, lowering low levels of accessibility to public transport, traveling speeds and creating disruptions especially the poorest areas (figure 1), on the network, reducing substantially the which hampers social and economic ability of people to reach their employment development. One of the main causes of opportunities (EOs). In Matola, for example, low accessibility, frequent flooding impacts, due to flooding disruptions on the transport become particularly disruptive during the network, about 10 percent of people in rainy season (December to March). Matola lose more than 50 percent of EOs due to flooding and job location (figure 1). Public transport is dominated by the unregulated/informal transport services Floods have become more frequent in provided by the private sector (chapas, recent years and are expected to follow myloves, two and three wheelers). this trend due to climate change effects, Chapas, minibus services operated on a posing a threat the city’s road network, and fixed route by associations of private opera- ultimately the GMA. Unpaved roads, poor tors, are particularly popular, especially for drainage infrastructure and management the poor people living in suburban areas as well as the city’s overall lack of urban who depend on informal modes to reach planning worsen the effects of flood work and conduct other daily activities. events. Additionally, the “Mozambique Myloves or unregulated open-backed trucks, Urbanization Review,” a World Bank have grown exponentially and remain working paper published in 2017, projects an important mode of transport for the urbanization growth will continue increasing poor, although they have been banned in in the Maputo and Matola areas, exacer- different parts of the AMM due to safety and bating the risk of urban flooding events. 34 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Under this context, the GMA and the identify opportunities for private sector World Bank Group (WBG), under the participations. Greater Maputo Multimodal Mass Transit Development Project (P175322), are dis- This note fits onto the Climate Resilience cussing intervention to increase accessibility & Environmental Sustainability Technical to jobs and other critical services in the Advisory (CREST) Trust Fund grant sup- GMA, especially benefiting some areas in porting the ongoing PPIAF TA to evaluate Matola. The preparation of this lending urban transport flood risk with current and operation in Maputo is supported by an future likely climate change projections. ongoing technical assistance (TA) — Private The CREST support aims at improving the Sector Participation — financed by the private sector investment environment for Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory bus rapid transit (BRT) projects contributing Facility (PPIAF). This TA aims to: (1) provide to climate change adaptation (CCA). The options for strengthen governance and outputs of the proposed additional grant planning framework, (2) identify integrated would fit into the results of the ongoing TA packages of investment, (3) develop and would support the preparation of the service and operations plans, and (4) lending operation (P175322). Figure 1. Matola: Population Density, Poverty Distribution, and Accessibility to Employment Loss Due to Floods Source: Original figure produced for this publication. FALL 2021 EDITION 35 Geospatial Analysis to Support Evidence-Based Decisions The overall objective of this study is to this study utilized a geospatial network identify areas in the transport network for analysis based on the location of EOs, public investments to ensure climate resilience transport network, and flooding (figure 2). in Matola. In particular, this study aims to The method is rooted in geospatial analysis, answer the following questions: “How does the concept of accessibility and the use of a flooding impact urban mobility and acces- networkwide approach to evaluate accessi- sibility in Matola?” and “Who is impacted bility to EOs, their impacts of flooding, and the most?” In order to achieve this goal, poverty reduction. Figure 2. Geospatial Analysis Diagram of Matola Source: Original figure produced for this publication. 36 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES ACCESSIBILITY TO JOBS would be impassable during flood events The study analysis uses data on EOs gener- and calculates the losses in accessibility, by ated through a methodology developed by estimating how many EOs would become the World Bank Group’s Urban team that inaccessible to the residents of Matola due combines open source and other inputs. to flooding. The accessibility analysis calculates the travel time to each of the EOs in the GMA. POVERTY REDUCTION Accessibility is then measured as the ability The study analysis uses data on poverty to reach the EOs in 60 minutes travel time. to assess the level of poverty of areas most affected by flooding, and identifies CLIMATE RESILIENCE interventions that would directly benefit the The analysis views the access to EOs poorest and most vulnerable communities through a climate resilience lens and uses in Matola. Poverty is measured by a poverty flood maps and problematic areas identified score dataset and defined as a value throughout Matola to assess the impact of ranging from 3 to 5, with 3 ranked as the floods on access to employment. In addi- poorest (see table 1). tion, the analysis determines which roads Table 1. Data Inputs and Sources for Assessing Poverty Levels in Flood-Affected Areas in Matola Data inputs Source Population WorldPop United Nations estimates (2015) at 100 meter resolution (https://www.worldpop.org) Employment Opportunities Avner et al. (forthcoming)a Poverty Poverty scoreb Transport Network OpenStreetMaps (https://www.openstreetmap.org) and General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) for public transport (https://gtfs.org/) Floods Problematic areas collected under World Bank’s Matola Climate Resilience Technical Assistance (2015)c Source: Various, as noted. Note: a. Avner, Paolo, Tatiana Peralta Quirós, Bharat Singh, and Chiara Ghiringhelli. Forthcoming. “Rapid Appraisal Methodology to Determine Employment Opportunity Areas in African Cities — Case Study: Kampala, Dakar & Nairobi.” Policy Research Working Paper, The World Bank, Washington, DC. b. Poverty score taken from: Gallego-Ayala, Jordi Jose, Michele Davide Zini, Mohamed Ihsan Ajwad, Eric L. Zapatero, Fnu Zainab, and Peter Beck. 2017. “Urban Safety Nets and Activation in Mozambique.” Working Paper, The World Bank, Washington, DC. c. TA prepared under the Drainage Master Plan of Maputo Metropolitan Area, financed by the Mozambique Cities and Climate Change Project (P123201). FALL 2021 EDITION 37 ACCESSIBILITY TO EMPLOYMENT Public transport plays a critical role in OPPORTUNITIES bringing people in Matola to EOs. In the Matola is highly disconnected from EOs in absence of public transport, only 9 percent the larger urban area. Only 19 percent of of Matola could reach at least 10 percent of Matola’s population can reach more than 50 EOs in Greater Maputo. percent of the EOs in the GMA. Some areas in Matola are isolated; approximately 26 However, as shown in table 3 and figure 3, percent of the population can access only many people still need to walk long distances 10 percent of the EOs within a one-hour even when using public transport options to commute via public transport (see table 2). reach EOs. Approximately two-thirds of the   Matola population walks an average of more than 20 minutes to reach EOs. Table 2. Percent of Matola Population and Employment Opportunities Access within a One-Hour Commute EOs accessible within 1 hour (%) Total population Matola population (%) 0 to 10 332,557 25.4 10 to 30 353,923 27.0 30 to 50 372,853 28.4 50 to 70 246,091 18.8 More than 70 6,251 0.5 Source: Original calculations produced for this publication. Table 3. Walking Time Needed to Reach Employment Opportunities in Matola Walking time (minutes) Total population Matola population (%) 0 to 10 8,547 0.7 10 to 20 455,162 34.7 20 to 30 527,440 40.2 30 to 40 265,349 20.2 More than 40 55,177 4.2 Source: Original calculations produced for this publication. 38 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Figure 3. Access to Employment Opportunities in Matola by Public Transport and Average Walking Time Source: Original figure produced for this publication. In Matola, poverty is highly correlated and 5 to 5.7 (lower poverty). While overall with accessibility to employment (table 4). dependence on public transport exists More than 40 percent of the poorest can across all poverty levels, poverty is slightly access less than 10 percent of EOs, while 75 correlated with dependence on walking percent of higher income people can reach to access opportunity. The study defines at least 30 percent of EOs. Poverty is de- high dependence on walking as the ability fined through the poverty score: 3.7 to 4.4 to access 50 percent of the EOs by walking (higher poverty), 4.4 to 5 (medium poverty) only. About 12 percent of the poorest FALL 2021 EDITION 39 depend on walking only to access most of and poorly engineered drainage systems their EOs, 7 percent for middle income, and resulting in localized urban flooding that less than 1 percent of high income. challenges driving speeds and, in some cases, renders some roads impassable. IMPACTS OF FLOODING ON The study analysis reveals most of the ACCESSIBILITY population will experience some reduction As shown in table 5, during the severe rainy in accessibility to EOs. Impacts due to season, employment opportunity access flooding are often localized; in some areas, (EOA) is significantly challenged in Matola approximately 10 percent of the population due to disruption of roads. The disruption is lose nearly all access to EOs, with a drop of caused by degraded surface road conditions 50 percent or more. Table 4. Links between Poverty Level and Access to Employment Opportunities in Matola Poverty Pop. with EOs Income group Pop. with EOs Income group Pop. with high Income group <10% (%) >50% (%) dependence (%) on walking Higher 190,186 43 60,266 14 51,501 12 Medium 134,227 18 160,461 22 48,402 7 Lower 8,142 6 31,614 23 — <1 Source: Original figure produced for this publication. Table 5. Reduction of Employment Opportunity Access in Matola Due to Flooding Disruptions Reduction in EOA (%) Total population Matola population (%) 0 to 10 866,292 66.0 10 to 20 110,986 8.5 20 to 50 160,383 12.2 50 to 70 43,161 3.3 More than 70 80,094 6.1 Source: Original figure produced for this publication. Table 6. Flooding Impacts on Employment Opportunity Access, by Poverty Level Poverty Total of EOs Total EOs lost People with high depen- Income group (%) lost (%) dence on walking Higher 613,986 35 80508.15 18 Medium 1,079,768 62 133186.7 18 Lower 50,251 3 0 <1 Source: Original figure produced for this publication. 40 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Figure 4. Loss of Employment Opportunities Access and Additional Walking Time Due to Flooding in Matola Source: Original figure produced for this publication. As illustrated in figure 4, while Matola Interestingly, flood impacts on accessibility residents largely depend on the EOs affect mainly the mid-poverty level residents available in Maputo (with 60 percent of in Matola (table 6), who experience more accessible EOs located in Maputo proper), than 60 percent of all flooding-related when the GMA floods, this reliance is EOs losses. In contrast, the higher income inverted, with 50 percent of the EOs residents experience the lowest impact accessible in Matola itself, which indicates of flooding, with only 3 percent of all lost flooding mainly disrupts trips to places of EOs. Flooding forces the poorest to rely employment outside of Matola. Additionally, even more on walking to access EOs; for flooding causes a slight increase in walking, the poorest residents, flooding increases with about 15 percent of people in Matola walking from 12 percent, as shown in table walking an additional 10 minutes to reach 4, to 18 percent in table 6. Conversely, their accessible EOs. flooding does not affect the reliance on walking — which is already close to zero — for the higher income levels. FALL 2021 EDITION 41 Discussion Points Accessibility to employment is low residents the most. During the severe for Matola residents relying on public rainy season, accessibility to employment transport and long walking distances. in Matola is significantly challenged due On average, a person in Matola can reach to the poor road surface conditions and only 1 out of 3 EOs within a one-hour poorly engineered drainage systems, which travel time in the GMA. A person’s ability to cause localized urban flooding that reduce access employment relies heavily on public driving speeds and, in some cases, make transport (mainly “poda-podas,” or informal roads completely impassable. The study minibuses) and requires walking long analysis reveals most of the population will distances, on average 25 minutes of walking experience some reduction in accessibility out of the one-hour trip. In fact, without the to EOs, with an individual Matola resident presence of public transport, accessibility losing, on average, 13 percent of EOs due to drops significantly, with only 1 out of 25 EOs flooding. Localized impacts in some areas accessible in that same one-hour trip. can result in about 10 percent of the popu- lation losing most of its access to EOs, with Accessibility is lowest for the area’s a loss of more than 50 percent. Additionally, poorest, who also benefit less from the flooding forces people to walk slightly more, supply of public transport. Poverty in with about 15 percent of people in Matola Matola appears to correlate with accessi- walking an additional 10 minutes to reach bility to employment. Nearly 60 percent their accessible EOs. (57 percent) of low-access communities, defined as people able to reach less than Flooding accentuates the dependence 10 percent of EOs in a one-hour trip, have a on walking for the poorest in Matola. high poverty score, while only 2.5 percent of Interestingly, flood impacts on accessibility the lowest poverty level are in that category. affects mainly the medium-poverty level While dependence on public transport residents in Matola, with almost 62 percent exists across all poverty levels, poverty of all EOs losses, while representing 56 is closely linked with walking to access percent of the population. The higher in- opportunity. Approximately 12 percent of come residents would experience the lower the poorest communities reach most EOs by impact of flooding, experiencing only 3 walking only, while this number drops to 3 percent of all lost EOs. Flooding also forces percent for middle income, and less than 1 the poorest communities to rely on walking percent of lower poverty communities. even more to access EOs, increasing the EOs accessible by walking only from 12 to Flooding has significant impacts on 18 percent. In contrast, flooding does not accessibility to employment, affecting affect the already insignificant dependence the poorest and the mid-income on walking for those with higher incomes. 42 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Authors: Felipe Targa, Juan Pablo Orjuela and Quantifying the Health Daniel Gil Sánchez, The World Bank Co-Benefits of Active Mobility: Developing Tools for Health Impact Assessments of Transport Choices in Five Latin American Cities FALL 2021 EDITION 43 COVID-19 has inspired renewed interest in promoting nonmotorized About the Authors transport around the world, and Latin America is no exception. Felipe Targa is a Senior Urban Transport Specialist working at the World Bank. A s part of a recent research mode shares to 30 percent and 6 collaboration with the University percent respectively. of Cambridge and the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, the Worryingly, however, the increase in World Bank is developing tools to use of motorized transport, particularly evaluate health impacts of nonmo- motorcycles, could lead to an increase Juan Pablo Orjuela is an Urban Transport torized transport policies in Latin of 10 premature deaths per 100,000 Consultant for the American cities. Using a prototype of inhabitants every year in Bogota, World Bank. the tool, the World Bank team evalu- and more than 50 in Mexico City ated the impacts of promoting different and Santiago. COVID-19 has inspired transport modes in five different cities renewed interest in promoting non- and calculated the expected change in motorized transport around the world, premature deaths through the com- and Latin America is no exception. bination of three main variables: air With this tool, policy makers will be pollution exposure, traffic injuries, and able to estimate the health impacts of Daniel Gil Sánchez is a health benefits from physical activity. their urban mobility plans and use the Transport Consultant for The results show how the case-study resulting data in cost-benefit analyses the World Bank. cities could avoid around 10 premature and to garner political support for deaths per 100,000 inhabitants every greater active mobility. year by increasing walking and cycling 44 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Introduction Urban transport can play a key role in Instead, most studies claim that cyclists and promoting healthier cities. Both obesity pedestrians have higher inhaled doses of air and sedentarism are on the rise around pollutants than vehicle users. Traffic injuries the world, and switching to active modes are also cited as an important threat, as of transport could be part of the solution cyclist and pedestrians are particularly to this global health crisis. Yet promoting vulnerable actors when adequate infrastruc- healthier transport alternatives in urban ture is not provided. environments will require more than simply advertising the benefits of walking and cycling. Solutions must derive from interdis- ciplinary and holistic planning that considers the connectivity of the entire urban trans- port system, and acknowledges tsignificant aspects such as employment locations, behavior change drivers, and environmental stressors (for example, air pollution). Encouraging physical activity through transport is probably one of the most cost-effective tools transport authorities and planners have available to promote health. Evidence of the health benefits of physical activity is clear and abundant: increased physical activity levels among the general population can bring substantial improvements in cardiovascular and mental health, among other benefits. Yet promoting active transport in today’s cities is not without its challenges. Air pollution, for example, could be seen as a threat to cyclists’ health. Studies focused on emission reductions tend to ignore how a modal shift from motorized transport to active transport not only implies less emis- sions per trip, but quite probably a decrease in personal exposure to air pollution. FALL 2021 EDITION 45 This article summarizes the literature on evaluate the health impacts of nonmotor- some of these issues and presents the ized transport policies in Latin American results of recent research done by the World cities. The team evaluated the impacts of Bank in collaboration with the University of promoting different transport modes in Cambridge and the University of Oxford. five case study cities, namely Bogota, Cali, As part of this collaboration, the World Medellin, Santiago de Chile, and Mexico Bank team is currently developing tools to City. With the tools being developed, the team calculated the expected change in premature deaths through the combination of three main variables: air pollution ex- posure, traffic injuries, and health benefits from physical activity. In Bogota the team performed an in-depth study to further understanding of how these tools can be used in future policy analysis. Using both the literature review and the city analysis, the team provides some recommendations for the promotion of healthy transport alternatives in Latin American cities moving forward. This article aims to guide Bank staff and client decision makers by presenting an overview of the literature available on this topic, the main challenges to creating healthier cities through transport alterna- tives, and some key points to keep in mind when developing projects with the aim of improving urban livelihoods. The COVID-19 pandemic has inspired re- newed interest in promoting nonmotorized transport around the world, and Latin America is no exception. With this tool, policy makers will be able to estimate the health impacts of their plans and use the resulting data in cost-benefit analyses and to garner political support for greater active mobility. 46 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Synthesis of Key Literature THE HEALTH BENEFITS OF more than 9 million people dying prema- PHYSICAL ACTIVITY turely that year. Alzheimer’s and dementia The health benefits of promoting physical occupied fifth place, and type 2 diabetes activity are difficult to overstate. A system- seventh place. Together, these diseases atic review of the literature, as presented accounted for 13 million deaths, or more by Reiner and others in 2013, shows than 1 in 5 deaths worldwide. However, a positive influence of physical activity not all these deaths are preventable by on weight gain, obesity, coronary heart promoting physical activity. A healthy diet, disease, type 2 diabetes, Alzheimer’s, and lower air pollution levels, higher exposure dementia. By summarizing 15 longitudinal to green spaces, and other factors are also studies with at least a five-year follow up, necessary. Yet getting people to be more the study team can conclude an increase physically active will help tackle these health in physical activity has a positive long-term challenges. effect on all selected diseases. This list of diseases is particularly important when A common misconception is that in order seen in a global context. Among the top 10 to achieve the greater health benefits of global causes of death listed by the World physical activity, people must follow a Health Organization (WHO) for 2016, coro- vigorous or moderate-intensity routine nary heart disease occupied first place, with for long periods of time, and this has downplayed the role active transport can have in the promotion of healthier cities. A common misconception is Meanwhile, WHO’s recommended levels of physical activity can easily be achieved by that in order to achieve the daily commuters. For adults ages 18 to 64, for example, the WHO suggests at least 150 greater health benefits of minutes of moderate-intensity (or 75 min- physical activity, people must utes of vigorous-intensity) aerobic physical activity throughout the week in bouts of follow a vigorous or moderate- at least 10 minutes’ duration. These 150 minutes could be achieved, for example, by intensity routine for long 15-minute active commutes twice a day, five periods of time, and this has days a week. Moreover, incorporating active mobility into commuting routines does not downplayed the role active require extra time or money to go to a gym or sports facility. transport can have in the promotion of healthier cities. FALL 2021 EDITION 47 HEALTH IMPACTS OF AIR POLLUTION EXPOSURE According to a 2018 WHO According to a 2018 WHO fact sheet, fact sheet, ambient air ambient air pollution causes 4.2 million deaths every year. The use of fossil fuels pollution causes 4.2 million in the transport sector has been ubiquitous for half a century now, contributing signifi- deaths every year. cantly and consistently through the years to overall emissions in cities around the exposure to PM2.5 with all-cause, cardio- globe. These energy sources have brought pulmonary, and lung cancer mortality. with them exhaust emissions, including Similarly, in later reports, the committee toxic substances, which then mix in the also shows evidence associating morbidity atmosphere and contribute to the overall cases of chronic bronchitis (2016) and poor air quality that has been affecting cardiovascular diseases (2018) with citizens for years. While the proportion and long-term exposure to PM2.5. Poor health nature of these substances have changed, associations with short-term exposure to without serious disruptions in the way PM2.5 are typically lower, as shown in a mobility in cities works transport emissions 2015 systematic review done by Shah and will continue to play a key role in the poor others on the short-term impacts of air air quality of urban settlements. pollution on strokes. In addition, transport emissions play an important role in the Today, particulate matter (PM) is one of adverse health effects of air pollution. A the most widely studied and discussed air 2019 study done by Achakulwisut and pollutants. A mix of solid and liquid-state others estimated approximately 4 million substances combine to form different sorts new pediatric asthma cases each year of particulates with varying compositions could be linked to long-term exposure to depending on sources and meteorological transport-related air pollutants, with Latin conditions, among other factors. PM has America as a region and its capitals (particu- been traditionally categorized by size, with larly Lima and Bogota) showing the greatest most environmental authorities reporting impact in a city-by-city analysis. on the concentration (mass per unit volume) of PM of 10 microns or less in diameter Emissions have received a lot of attention (PM10) and of 2.5 microns or less (PM2.5). from transport experts and policy makers, but air pollution exposure while Some of the most relevant reviews of long- in transport has taken longer to become term exposure to air pollution have been part of the policy and technical debate. made by the Committee on the Medical Despite exposure being widely discussed in Effects of Air Pollutants of the United environmental and epidemiological forums, Kingdom (COMEAP). In a 2009 report, the this has not transformed into actual policies committee presents compelling evidence and actions intended to reduce exposure or associating an increase in 10 micrograms intake of air pollutants. When emissions from per cubic meter (μg/m ) of long-term 3 different sources mix in the atmosphere, 48 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES ambient air pollutant concentrations can WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WE COMBINE AIR be measured with air quality measurement POLLUTION AND PHYSICAL ACTIVITY? systems. Such measurements form the basis Promoting active transport can increase for most epidemiological studies and air levels of physical activity and therefore quality national standards. However, people promote healthier populations. It will also are rarely exposed to consistent concentra- reduce air pollution emissions from motor- tions. People move around — they can be ized transport, helping reduce ambient air indoors, outdoors, travelling, close or far concentrations, which will, in turn benefit all from air pollution sources — and thus, even citizens. However, considering personal ex- within less than 100 meters, concentrations posure to air pollutants adds negative effects could vary greatly. Personal exposure refers to the equation. Should cities still promote to the air quality in an individual’s personal active transport when ambient concentra- cloud of air. Depending on things such as tions are upsettingly high? In one word: yes. physical activity, people’s breathing rates Even in cities with relatively high background will change, as will the amount of pollutants concentrations, promoting active transport people are actually breathing in. The seems to bring health benefits. amount of pollutants breathed in is normally referred in the literature as inhaled doses. In 2015, Tainio and others published a paper trying to determine the strength of Transport plays an important part in these forces (benefits of physical activity vs. people’s exposure and inhaled doses of air negative impacts of air pollution) in urban pollutants. One of the variables to have in settings around the world. The paper, mind, then, is the transport mode being provocatively titled, “Can Air Pollution used. As shown in a 2017 systematic Negate the Health Benefits of Cycling quantitative review done by de Nazelle, and Walking?” shows, for most considered Bode, and Orjuela, measurements in scenarios, physical activity would have to Europe show important differences extend across very long periods of time between transport modes. For example, in order for air pollution to counteract its pedestrians have lower PM2.5 exposure than benefits. The authors present an example cyclists, while both have greater exposure of a city with a background concentration than people not in transport. This means set at a medium level of 50μg/m3 of PM2.5. that while important exposure differences Here, citizens would continue to benefit between transport modes exist, exposure in from physical activity way beyond an hour. transport tends to be higher than when not In fact, a cyclist would have to cycle for in transport, regardless of the mode. more than 300 minutes a day to see higher health risks than benefits. In the same year, Mueller and others conducted a systematic review of the health effects of active transport that confirmed these trends. FALL 2021 EDITION 49 Methods In order to explore the health impacts of in the analysis. When the modal split is transport choice in Latin America, the study altered by creating various scenarios (as team used the methodological framework detailed below), it is possible to estimate of the TIGTHAT (Towards an Integrated the relative changes. For physical activity, Global Transport and Health Assessment distances are first calculated using time of Tool) project proposed by a team of trip and average mode speed, and then a researchers at the MRC Epidemiology Unit change in physical activity is obtained by at the University of Cambridge. In a nutshell, using metabolic equivalents of task (METs) TIGTHAT uses the Integrated Transport and differentiated by mode, age group, and sex. Health Impact Modelling Tool (ITHIM) to For air quality data, changes in mode will perform a health impact assessment com- imply changes in three main variables: (1) a bining three variables linking transport change in mode results in a change of the and health: air pollution inhalation, physical emission factor from which total emissions activity, and traffic-related injuries, according can be calculated using trip distance; (2) to a 2009 study by Woodcock and others. ambient air pollution will be slightly affected This section briefly presents the TIGTHAT depending on the contribution of various methodological framework, and then pres- sources, which is estimated from local air ents the methods followed in the study. quality network data and existing estimates of citywide emission inventories; and, (3) ITHIM is a tool developed to do a com- mode changes will imply changes in inhaled parative risk assessment to estimate the doses of pollutants due to changes in health benefits of various transport modes. exposure and inhalation rates. Finally, using Although updated through the years, the local data from traffic injuries, a stochastic main methods to estimate health impacts model estimates the probability of a traffic remain essentially the same. TIGTHAT is a injury as a function of the transport mode project that aims to create a methodology used. For example, when a 20-minute car for applying the ITHIM model in low- and trip of a 26-year-old female is changed to a middle-income countries, considering data cycling trip, we see an increase in the wom- availability restrictions. an’s physical activity levels that depends on the length of her trip, her age, and sex. Using data from origin-destination (OD) Given that she is not using her car for that surveys, in combination with physical trip, those emissions are subtracted from activity data, traffic injury data, and air emission inventories and their impact on quality data for both emissions and ambient air can be calculated, as well as her concentrations, the model sets a baseline new exposure to air pollution and increased for the three main variables to consider inhaled doses. The probability of being in 50 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES a traffic injury will now change from one Premature deaths from air pollution and associated to women in her age group physical activity are estimated using the using a car, to one associated to women in Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation her age group using a bicycle. This entire (IHME) global burden of disease database process can then be repeated for all trips in for 2017 and local data for both current the OD survey. physical activity and air quality levels. Table 1. Trip Proportions Defined for Each Scenario in the Cross-Sectional Study According to Trip Distance Categories Distance category Scenarios Less than 2 km 2 ≤ x < 6 km 6 km or more Walking 94.2% 20.6% 1.8% Cycling 4.9% 12.2% 2.2% Car 5.6% 47.1% 30.5% Motorcycle 4.6% 27.7% 20.7% Public transport 1.6% 39.9% 58.3% Source: Original calculations produced for this publication. Scenario Development As mentioned in the introduction, the study (5) public transport. First, all trips in the OD team’s work is divided into a cross-sectional surveys were broken into three categories study of five cities in Latin America and an based on their estimated distances: 0–2 km, in-depth study in Bogota to illustrate the 2–6 km, and 6 or more km. Then, a modal use of our methods. split for these three categories was calcu- lated for all cities. The “walking” scenario Rather than basing the cross-sectional study was then created by finding the city with scenarios on hypothetical constructions the greatest proportion of walking trips of changes in modal split, the study uses in each distance category and assigning a comparative approach in which new these to all the cities. The remaining trips modal splits are created based on trip were distributed between the rest of the proportions in other cities. This allows the modes in proportion to current city levels. team to generate a total of five somewhat This process was then repeated for all other more realistic scenarios better aligned with modes. Table 1 presents the resulting trip regional trends. Each scenario prioritized proportions in each distance category for a different transport mode: (1) walking, (2) the five scenarios. cycling, (3) private car, (4) motorcycle, and FALL 2021 EDITION 51 For Bogota, the team created six different 3. Double cycling trips from car users scenarios of modal split, as agreed with the (cycling X2, car). Here, the team local mobility authority. These scenarios doubled cycling trips, with all new trips were defined as follows: involving people who were previously using a private car. 1. Gender parity in cycling (gender). Current levels of cycling in Bogota 4. Double cycling trips from car and show that men are more likely to use a motorcycle users (cycling X2, car cycle than women. The team created a and m.cycle). In this scenario, the scenario in which a higher number of team doubled cycling trips, with all women would cycle in order to reach new trips involving people who were a 50 percent of cycling trips without previously using a private car or private altering the number of cycling trips motorcycle. done by men. 5. Double cycling trips from public 2. Equal socioeconomic distribution in transport (cycling X2, PubTransport). cycling trips (SES). Current levels of For this scenario, the team doubled cycling in Bogota show people who live cycling trips, with all new trips involving in areas classified as the second-lowest people who were previously using public socioeconomic stratum, or SES, are transport. more likely to cycle than any other of the six levels defined in the city urban 6. Double cycling trips from all modes planning strata. Thus, this scenario (cycling X2, all). The team doubled indicates people living in all other strata cycling trips in this scenario, with new would cycle as much as current stratum trips coming from a combination of all 2 levels. other modes. 52 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Results Figure 1 presents results from the the cycling scenario since this city currently cross-sectional study. Note the y-axis is the claims the largest proportion of cycling number of premature deaths avoided per trips and thus this scenario represents no 100,000 inhabitants, as cities vary greatly change from the baseline. in size. Also note that in the motorcycle and public transport scenarios, the results Avoided premature deaths are only from Santiago and Mexico City extend way achieved in the scenarios prioritizing beyond the y-axis scale. The scale has been walking, cycling, and public transport. shortened to show the details of the other In contrast, the prioritization of private scenarios, but it is important to observe cars and motorcycles results in additional the disproportionate number of premature premature deaths in all cities. According to deaths, mainly due to very large number of the study results, traffic injuries in Santiago injuries associated with motorcycle trips in present a significant threat to sustainable these two cities. In addition, the figure does transport as no premature deaths were not show any avoided deaths in Bogota for avoided in any of the created scenarios. Figure 1. Avoided Premature Deaths per Year per 100,000 Inhabitants for Different Transport Mode Scenarios in the Cross-Sectional Study 20 Avoided premature deaths per 100,000 inhabitants Bogota Medellin Cali Santiago Mexico City 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -44 -20 -162 -108 Walking Cycling Car Motorcycle Public Transport Source: Original figure produced for this publication. FALL 2021 EDITION 53 Figure 2 shows the total changes in fatalities. In all cases more premature premature deaths from all six scenarios deaths are avoided from air pollution and in the in-depth study of Bogota. The blue physical activity than the additional traffic bars represent avoided premature deaths incident fatalities. This is not to say that due to changes in air pollution and physical road safety is not an issue, as every fatality activity, and the orange bars represent addi- in traffic has immeasurable social and tional deaths from increased traffic-related economic implications. Figure 2. Avoided Premature Deaths per Year for Different Scenarios in Bogota 600 Physical activity and air pollution 500 Traffic injuries Avoided premature deaths per year 400 300 200 100 0 Gender SESa Cycling x2, Cycling x2, car Cycling x2, Cycling x2, -100 car and motorcycle Public Transport all Source: Original figure produced for this publication. Note: a. SES = socioeconomic stratum 54 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Discussion for Policy Makers The results of the cross-sectional study in- trips come from motorized private vehicles) dicate how the case-study cities could avoid premature deaths every year. Given that the around 5 premature deaths per 100,000 COVID-19 pandemic has renewed interest inhabitants every year by increasing walking in promoting nonmotorized transport and cycling trip shares to 30 percent and 6 around the world, including in Latin America, percent respectively. Worryingly, however, these goals do not seem unreachable and the increase in use of motorized transport, would constitute a great step forward in particularly motorcycles, could lead to decarbonizing transport systems in the an increase of 10 premature deaths per region. A challenge identified for city officials 100,000 inhabitants every year in Bogota, consists of how to maximize these results by and more than 50 in Mexico City and inducing a shift of trips away from private Santiago. Promoting public transport could vehicles or and public transport only. also lead to avoided premature deaths, mainly because it incentivizes some physical This article has outlined an in-depth study activity, in the walk to and from public of Bogota to demonstrate how these tools transport stations among age groups with could be used to estimate avoided prema- lower baseline levels of physical activity. ture deaths due to the promotion of active However, road safety is a main threat to transport. With these tools, policy makers sustainable transport in all case-study cities will be able to estimate the health impacts and in particular in Santiago de Chile, where of their plans. Although the cross-sectional no premature deaths were avoided in any study is limited in terms of scenario ambi- of the modeled scenarios. tions, it helps to illustrate how the current trend of private motorized transport in The in-depth study of Bogota illustrates how the region would lead to additional annual doubling cycle trips in that city could result in deaths that could be avoided by promoting avoiding between 130 (if all new trips come cycling and walking to levels already from public transport) and 600 (if all new present in other cities in the region. Policy Recommendations 1. Promote health impact assessments incorporate health impact assessments in low- and middle-income countries into cost-benefit analyses that offer a (LMICs). As mentioned before, most of more complete picture of the benefits of the research comparing air pollution active travel. However, many cities in the exposures, injuries, and health benefits LMICs will need to make greater efforts of physical activity has been done to collect reliable data on their travel in high-income countries that have patterns and traffic injuries, as even the access to more detailed data. The tools level of data used for this project may presented here should help LMICs to represent a burden. FALL 2021 EDITION 55 2. Facilitate the development of health impact assessments in LMICs. The available research Considering most of the research on confirms the health benefits health benefits, air pollution, and active mobility is happening in high-income of active travel outweigh the countries, efforts to support nonmo- torized transport in LMICs should focus potential negative effects. on building local capacities to develop health impact assessments, with a spe- 4. Support building infrastructure to cial consideration for local challenges make active travel safe, accessible, related to data recollection, processing, and attractive. The fact that the and analysis. The tools presented in benefits of physical activity are greater this article could be used by Bank staff than its potential risks does not mean in and client policy makers and planners any way additional measures to protect in the preparation of cost-benefit pedestrians and cyclists should not analyses to monetize the health be taken. As shown here, cyclists have benefits of active mobility. For instance, higher daily inhaled doses of pollutants in 2020, health benefits calculated in than all other modes, despite cycling the Social Cost-Benefit Analysis for itself being zero emission. In order for the World Bank–developed Bicycle societies and individuals to reap the Infrastructure Plan in Lima, Peru, health benefits of active travel, policy made up a large portion of the savings makers should focus on investing in related to the implementation of the quality infrastructure for safe walking plan, which featured a staggering and cycling. For example, planning tools benefit-cost ratio of 19. such as the Level of Traffic Stress could indicate changes in infrastructure that 3. Promote active travel. The available need to be included at the street level research confirms the health benefits in order to attract users interested in of active travel outweigh the potential cycling more, but who are not concerned negative effects. Thus, policy makers about road safety. In addition to road and planners should promote active safety, active mobility networks should mobility in order to make the benefits feature other elements such as greenery, of physical activity available to most of lighting, and shade, which make active the population and to support healthier travel more attractive and increase the urban livelihoods. Active mobility should place function of streets. Furthermore, be a key element of the Bank agenda for policy makers should consider rebal- decarbonizing transport systems, with ancing public space by reducing the area stakeholders engaging national and devoted to private motorized transport subnational governments to support (responsible for numerous negative audacious and impactful measures that externalities) and reclaiming it for the effectively increase walking and cycling most sustainable, healthy, and equitable, among the population. yet vulnerable, transport modes. 56 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank all the people in the case-study cities who by sharing their most up-to-date data made this study possible. These include people at mobility and envi- ronmental authorities, universities, and the World Bank staff in the analyzed countries. We would also like to thank Dr. James Woodcock and his team at the University of Cambridge for their help in the execution of the tools used in TIGTHAT and for making us feel part of the team. This project was funded under the Mobility and Logistics (MOLO) Trust Fund. The MOLO is funded by the Austrian Ministry of Finance, German Ministry for Development Cooperation (BMZ), and Swiss Ministry of Economic Affairs (SECO). This report has been cofunded by the Mobility and Logistics Multidonor Trust Fund (MOLO), managed by the World Bank Group and supported by the Governments of Switzerland (SECO), Germany (BMZ), Austria (BMF), and Poland (Ministry of Climate). References Additional Resources FALL 2021 EDITION 57 58 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Authors: Said Dahdah, Hasan Afzal Zaidi, and Changing Transport John H. Winner, The World Bank in Pakistan A s Pakistan’s largest city, Karachi facilities for receiving and dispatching serves as a major industrial services and the capacity of the line hub and home to two major seaports, itself, over the short, medium, and Karachi Port (KPT) and Port Qasim longer term. The study then considers (PQA), which together handle almost which of the various proposed solu- all of Pakistan’s overseas trade by tions would be most effective, including volume. Accordingly, continued greater private sector involvement of economic growth in Pakistan depends the private sector. upon increased freight movements to and from these ports along with The study concludes Karachi Port will improvements to the surface transport need new rail terminal facilities that infrastructure. ensure faster turnaround, while Port Qasim will need high-standard rail Against this background, and the policy access facilities to its key terminals, objective of significantly increasing the especially Pakistan International Bulk volume of port traffic moving by rail, Terminal (PIBT). The study proposes this World Bank study analyzes the Pipri as a logistics hub for train load capacity of the existing network, in- movements to and from both Karachi cluding arrangements at port terminal Port and Port Qasim. FALL 2021 EDITION 59 Pakistan’s total population stands at more than 220 million The world’s fifth most populous country, Pakistan is a developing country with About the Authors growing imports and export. Over the last decade to 2019, Pakistan averaged real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of about 4 percent, while goods imports and exports grew at an average annual rate of about 6.1 percent through to the start of the pandemic in late 2020 Said Dahdah is (see figure 1). a Senior Urban Transport Specialist for the World Bank. Figure 1. Value of Goods Imports and Exports in Pakistan, 2006–19 90 30% 80 20% 70 Billions (current US$) 60 10% Hasan Afzal Zaidi % Change 50 is a Senior Urban 0% 40 Transport Specialist for the World Bank. 30 -10% 20 -20% 10 0 -30% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators. John H. Winner is a Senior Railway Expert/ Pakistan’s total population stands at of the country, some 1,000 kilometers Consultant for the more than 220 million; the population of from the Arabian Sea coast. The map World Bank. Karachi, the country’s largest city, located in figure 2 shows the population distri- in southern Pakistan on the Arabian Sea bution in Pakistan based on the 2017 — hovers around 14 million. However, census. most Pakistanis live in the northern part 60 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Figure 2. Pakistan Population Density Map, 2017 Source: Wikimedia (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pakistan_population_density.png) FALL 2021 EDITION 61 Nearly all imported and exported goods import and export traffic moving through flow through the major ports in Karachi. In Karachi’s ports. Most of the bulk liquids are 2019/20 (the fiscal year used in reporting), moved via pipeline and some fuels, including Karachi’s major ports handled about 92 coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), are million tons (table 1). consumed near the port. Total import and export volume moving through the ports via Since imports and exports for Pakistan were Pakistan’s surface transportation systems is lower in 2019/20 than in prior years, 100 likely around 75 million tons per year. million tons serves as a good estimate for Table 1. Karachi’s Two Major Ports, Fiscal Year 2019/20 Commodity Quantity Container (TEU) 3,073,000 million tons Containers 43,758 Coal 14,311 Bulk liquids 26,272 Iron and steel products 1,754 Fertilizers 1,545 Cement exports 900 Others 4,317 Total 92,857 Source: Karachi Port Trust; Port Qasim Authority. 62 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES The Ports of Karachi To handle this volume, the city of Karachi busiest deep-water seaports in South Asia. operates two ports. Karachi Port (figure 3), It handles about 50 percent of Pakistan’s embedded in but just west of Karachi, is cargo. KPT has three container terminals, in- managed by Karachi Port Trust (KPT) under cluding one for ultra-large container ships, the administrative control of the Federal and multiple berths for handling general, Maritime Secretary. Formed in 1887, the bulk, and liquids traffic. In addition, the port Port of Karachi is one of the largest and services military and navy operations. Figure 3. Illustrated Map of Karachi Port Source: Karachi Port Trust; World Bank (unpublished study on Karachi–Hyderabad medium-term rail capacity). FALL 2021 EDITION 63 The second port (see figure 4), Port port has a single container terminal and Muhammad Bin Qasim, lies approximately berths for bulk, LNG, liquids, and coal. A 40 kilometers due west of Karachi. Port number of “subports” also operate with Port Qasim (PQ), a relatively new and still devel- Quasim, including the new privately built oping port, opened in 1980 and is managed Pakistan International Bulk Terminal (PIBT), by the Qasim Port Authority, which also LNG terminals, a couple of nearby power operates under the administrative control plant coal terminals, and other specialized of the Federal Maritime Secretary. The terminal facilities. Figure 4. Illustrated Map of Port Qasim Source: Port Qasim Authority; World Bank (unpublished study on Karachi–Hyderabad medium-term rail capacity). Since it opened, Port Qasim has been the tonnage than KPT. Even so, with its three smaller of the two ports in the Karachi container terminals, KPT handles about 65 area; however, in recent years a shift in percent of the container traffic, while PQ coal traffic has increased the port’s share handles 35 percent. to where it now handles slightly more total 64 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Pakistan’s port traffic has generally Much of the projected increase stems from increased at a higher pace than its GDP. energy-related imports, including oil, coal, Forecasts for Pakistan’s economic growth and LNG for power systems. Some of this suggest the economy will continue to increase will be handled with dedicated grow at 4 percent to 4.5 percent per year, berthing facilities serving a power plant or resulting in the likely substantial growth a terminal for a pipeline distribution net- of import and export traffic at Karachi’s works. Nonetheless, rapid growth of goods ports over the next decade — by at least 50 imports and exports is projected over the percent in the next 10 years; some forecasts next decade. However, Pakistan faces the have port traffic increasing by nearly 100 problem of how to transport these goods to percent as Pakistan’s economy evolves. and from Karachi’s ports. Transport Networks In most countries around the world, both Pakistan’s focus on developing the road road and rail modes provide transport of network has resulted in a logistics system goods to and from the ports, with the avail- with a high concentration of consolidation able transport modes and price structures and distribution terminals near Karachi shaping and constraining a country’s freight and long road transport services direct to transport patterns. In Pakistan, an evolving upcountry and Central Asian customers. As freight transport network focusing on new transport alternatives are introduced, roads has shaped and developed Pakistan’s the sector will need time to reshape these logistics capabilities; movement of goods structural elements. between Karachi’s ports and its commercial centers done nearly all by road. Indeed, over In contrast, over the past decade rail the past decade, road transport has been network capacity has been hindered by a the only mode readily available in Pakistan. lack of investment and aging infrastructure, with underinvestment sapping the railway’s Having invested heavily in motorways and ability to participate in economic growth. upgrading its national highway system over Locomotive and rollingstock available for recent decades, Pakistan’s road network in- service declined for lack of investment in cludes a 10,000 kilometer national highway parts and new equipment; the condition and motorway network, which carries 80 of many railway lines deteriorated, trains percent of Pakistan’s total transport traffic. slowed, and services reduced. The sector Small private operators dominate the road prioritized continuing passenger services, transport industry, which is thriving with curtailing Pakistan Railways (PR) freight intense competition and low road transport services. As a result, the amount of freight costs. In fact, transporting containers from carried by the railway declined precipitously, Karachi to Lahore and other upcountry especially between 2010 and 2017 (figure 5). destinations is currently cheaper and faster by road than by rail. FALL 2021 EDITION 65 Figure 5. Pakistan Railways Freight Traffic, 1995 to 2019 9 9 8 8 7 7 Net ton-kilometer (billion) 6 6 Tons (million) 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 95/6 96/7 97/8 98/9 99/0 00/1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Tons (total) Net ton-kilometers Source: Pakistan Railways; World Bank (unpublished study on Karachi–Hyderabad medium-term rail capacity). While PR’s main line from Karachi to the country’s different investment priorities, Lahore is double track and generally in nearly all import and export traffic from good condition, its technology (including Karachi’s ports moves by road. This pres- track, signaling, communications, and road ents several problems for both Pakistan and crossings) is dated. As a result, capacity on Karachi, including higher transport costs, the line is less than it would be with modern greater greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, technology. Pakistan’s highway and railway more road crashes, and increased traffic networks are shown in figure 6. Because of congestion, especially in Karachi. 66 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Figure 6. Pakistan National Highway Network and Pakistan Railway Maps Source: Pakistan National Highways Authority; World Bank (unpublished study on Karachi–Hyderabad medium-term rail capacity). Surrounded by the city of Karachi, Karachi Because most traffic through Karachi port Port’s railway facilities are designed for the moves by road, some 10,000 truck move- single box wagon market, which no longer ments per day within Karachi create a great exists, and for much lower volumes of deal of congestion around the port as trucks traffic. In the past, outbound goods were stage in city streets for access. The city has handled in warehouses on or near the port responded to this increased traffic and and moved dockside for loading onto ships; congestion by restricting access to many imports were moved from dockside to many streets and roads to certain times of day. smaller warehouses to be deconsolidated Unless the city makes significant changes for movement to commercial centers. In in both highway and rail facilities, Karachi modern times, most imported bulk goods streets could see as many as 25,000 move- are bagged dockside and loaded directly ments per day seeking access to the port onto trucks for outbound movement. in the near future. Proposals to construct Arranging rail movement is more compli- an overhead highway at Karachi Port will cated and difficult. Container traffic mostly redirect more truck traffic from city streets. moves to and from local warehouses by At the same time, Pakistan is starting a road transport because rail facilities at railway investment program worth more the port are limited and awkward, and the than US$8 billion to upgrade its main line railway is not very sensitive to changing (ML-1; Karachi to Peshawar) as a part of its market conditions. China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) program. The railway investment seeks FALL 2021 EDITION 67 to increase passenger train speeds on the Given the planned increases in high-speed corridor to 160 kilometers per hour (kph) passenger trains on ML-1, KCR is expected and to increase the train capacity of the to have its own dedicated double-track main line. Higher speed passenger services corridor, separate from ML-1. Even so, given should attract new passenger traffic with the preponderance of current and projected additional passenger trains, many of them passenger services on the ML-1, the phys- operating at 160 kph into Karachi City ical capacity of ML-1 should be increased passenger station near the port. before operating additional freight services. At the same time, PR is rehabilitating the With the objective of significantly increasing Karachi Circular Railway (KCR), an urban the volume of port freight traffic moving by rail line circling downtown Karachi (figure rail, a recent series of unpublished World 7), and plans to start high-frequency train Bank studies analyzed the capacity of the services over the line with some suburban existing network and rail facilities at both services extending some 50 kilometers to Karachi area ports to determine the most the west, past Port Qasim. KCR services effective investments and their expected operate along the north side of Karachi Port timing, given potential traffic demand. and along the ML-1 railway to the west. Figure 7. Karachi Circular Railway Map Source: Pakistan Railways; World Bank (unpublished study on Karachi–Hyderabad medium-term rail capacity). 68 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES A Shift to Rail The Bank studies determined rail capacity ability to run freight services on ML-1 to a at both Karachi-area ports is determined by strict timetable. The Bank studies concluded three specific constraints: (1) the ability to a major shift to rail would require significant load and unload full trains, particularly for investment in modern rail terminal facilities container services; (2) the capacity of ML-1 within the ports, especially within Karachi to accommodate freight trains; and (3) the Port (see the satellite map in figure 8). Figure 8. Google Earth Image of Karachi Port Source: Karachi Port Trust; World Bank (unpublished study on Karachi–Hyderabad medium-term rail capacity). Note: PICT = Pakistan International Container Terminal; KICT = Karachi International Container Terminal; SAPT = South Asia Pakistan Terminals; A = Railway tracks at West Wharf Karachi Port; B = Pakistan Railways Yard, Karachi City; C = East Wharf Karachi Port; D = South Asia Pakistan Terminals; E = Area of railway land located outside the port, midway between Karachi City and Karachi Cantonment Stations, proposed for loading and unloading or staging facilities; F = Loading Facility at Wazir Mansion; TPX = Thule Produce Yard, an area south of Karachi City currently used as overflow storage for containers. FALL 2021 EDITION 69 These investments would provide modern rail connection to PIBT and additional rail facilities for each of the major container loading and staging tracks on the port. terminals and permit fluid rail movements. The investments should be associated Some of the potential investment locations with and accompanied by much greater are shown in figure 9. They include longer involvement of the private sector, who loading tracks so that full trains can be would operate the specialized terminals moved into the port, loaded, and then and facilities. If traffic through the ports depart with little interference with trains continues to grow, and if rail is successful in operating on the main line. Other potential capturing a greater share, then additional investments include new connections to investment in railway line capacity (track permit quicker movement into and out of triplication or quadruplication) would be KPT. Investments at Port Qasim will also required sometime around 2035. facilitate rail movements, including a direct Figure 9. Karachi Port: Inland Distribution Karachi - Direct Upcountry - Direct Karachi - Warehoused Upcountry - Warehoused Source: World Bank analysis, based on the following sources: EA Consulting. 2015. “Consultancy Services for Alignment, Detailed Design and Development of Road/Rail Network for Pakistan Deep Water Container Port.”; ISO Partners. 2016. “Development of National Trade Corridor Highway Business Plans.”; and interviews with port users. Most road traffic from Karachi Port is customers in or near Karachi or to ware- destined to upcountry population centers. houses used by these local customers. It is Some cargo is loaded onto trucks in likely that some of this “Karachi” traffic finds container terminals or port loading facilities its way to or from upcountry population and moved directly upcountry (roughly 40 centers as well. Because all port traffic must percent), while roughly 20 percent of cargo traverse the city of Karachi; finding ways is warehoused in and around Karachi city, to shift this traffic to railways becomes an then moved upcountry. The remaining important consideration. cargo (roughly 40 percent) moves to 70 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Since the opening of Port Qasim, the area trains move quickly through the busy ML-1 around Bin Qasim has developed as a new corridor, mixing with highspeed passenger industrial and logistics center for Karachi. trains, normal passenger trains, and sub- In the longer term, this area is expected urban services to and from Karachi. to continue to grow quickly. An option to reduce truck traffic in Karachi is to develop A dedicated freight corridor could allow an unused railway yard in the town of Pipri staging container services as well as serve — located northeast of Port Qasim — as a freight shuttling between Karachi Port and major logistics hub. In any event, a facility Port Qasim to and from the new logistics will be needed in this area to service and center. Figure 10 shows the suggested stage container trains moving to and from corridor route (blue line) stretching from both Karachi Port and Port Qasim. The Karachi Port, past Port Qasim, and ending at staging facility is needed to ensure freight the logistics hub in Pipri. Figure 10. Suggested Freight Corridor to Connect Karachi Area Ports with the Pipri Logistics Hub Source: Karachi Port Trust; World Bank (unpublished study on Karachi–Hyderabad medium-term rail capacity). A new freight corridor and Pipri area capacity might be needed by 2030. A staging and logistics center could reduce high-capacity train load facility at Pipri rail transport costs since trains will be able could provide space for inspections, to move directly between the ports and wagon, and locomotive servicing, container the logistics hub with minimal interference storage and shifting, and for staging to to passenger services, especially if the meet timetabled freight slots (figure 11, corridor is designed to permit double stack panel a). The World Bank analysis shows container trains. that additional capacity may be required between Pipri and Hyderabad by 2035 or so Under most freight traffic projections, (figure 11, panel b). capacity analysis shows additional track FALL 2021 EDITION 71 Figure 11. Demand and Track Capacity for Karachi–Pipri and Pipri–Hyderabad Rail Lines a. Demand and track capacity: Karachi–Pipri b. Demand and track capacity: Pipri–Kotri/Hyderabad 160 180 140 160 140 Pairs of trains per day Pairs of trains per day 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 2019/20 2024/25 2024/25 2029/30 2029/30 2034/35 2034/35 2039/40 2039/40 2019/20 2024/25 2024/25 2029/30 2029/30 2034/35 2034/35 2039/40 2039/40 Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Passenger - high speed Passenger - other LD KCR Commuter Pipri - Hyderabad Passenger - high speed Passenger - other LD Container Container Other Freight Capacity (low) Coal Other Freight Capacity (high) Capacity (low) Capacity (high) Source: Karachi Port Trust; World Bank (unpublished study on Karachi–Hyderabad medium-term rail capacity). In summary, continued economic growth Pipri logistics facilities would need to be in Pakistan depends upon increased freight redesigned to service and inspect whole movements to and from Karachi’s two trains and provide high-capacity modern major ports. However, surface transport locomotive and wagon servicing facilities. access at Karachi Port is poor, technically outdated, and creates traffic congestion The logistics hub should also have modern in the city of Karachi. To allow growth at container terminal capacity with the ability Karachi Port, improvements must be made to store, load and unload, and swap con- to on-port rail facilities in the short term, tainers between trains. Shuttle trains with and different operating practices used in no brake vans should move cargo between the medium and long term. Karachi Port will Pipri and both ports, which would require need new rail terminal facilities that ensure no locomotive turning; all servicing, brake faster turnaround. Port Qasim will need tests, and inspections would be handled high-standard rail access facilities to its key at Pipri. In the longer term, Pipri has the terminals, especially PIBT. Pipri could serve potential to become a major road and rail as an excellent holding and staging facility freight and warehousing hub for Pakistan, for train load movements to and from both eliminating a great deal of heavy truck Karachi Port and Port Qasim. The proposed traffic from Karachi’s city streets. 72 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Authors: James Markland, Muneeza Response to COVID-19 Alam, Mridula Singh, and Sudhashree Chandrashekar, Employment Creation The World Bank through Infrastructure Investment T he COVID-19 pandemic has closure of all but the most essential caused an unprecedented world- services. A very few sectors have ben- wide crisis, with devastating economic efited from the situation or continued impacts felt across the spectrum, from to operate largely unchanged. Services multinational companies through that continued to operate have had to small and microenterprises to dai- adapt procedures to the new situation. ly-paid, migrant, and informal workers and their families. Lockdowns have The impacts of the crisis have led to the disappearance of disposable disproportionally affected low-paid income and customers as well as the workers, many of whom have been laid FALL 2021 EDITION 73 The impacts of the crisis have disproportionally affected low-paid workers, many of whom have been laid off employment be generated to provide About the Authors income for those who have lost their jobs? A clear understanding of the available approaches to “Build Back Better” and their associated rollout strategies is critical in view of the un- certainties surrounding the start and pace of the recovery phase, the period James Markland is over which COVID-19 will continue to a Senior Transport off, as employers have not been able be a challenge, and the employment Specialist for the World Bank. to continue paying salaries given the creation needs. widespread disappearance of income, despite their obligations or government This article presents options for the support programs. Migrant workers, creation of infrastructure-related a large proportion of the labor force employment, and gives guidance on in South Asia, have not only lost their the selection of the most appropriate sources of income, but have had to option(s). To be effective and sustain- travel hundreds of kilometers without able, programs must match needs with Muneeza Alam is a Senior Economist for support to reach their homes, forced to opportunities. Factors that influence the World Bank. contemplate rebuilding their lives. The solution choice include the attitudes of informal sector has been hit hard by stakeholders, availability of skills, local the drop in numbers of customers. infrastructure needs, and the existence of ongoing activities that can be scaled As governments struggle to balance up or adjusted. Cross-sectoral pro- the twin priorities of controlling the grams are more flexible in adapting to waves of COVID-19 and minimizing the diverse opportunities, and bring other economic impact of the shutdowns, advantages. Although the discussion Sudhashree Chandrashekar is a lockdowns are being introduced and and examples that follow focus on the Senior Consultant for eased and planning is advancing for the road sector, opportunities in other the World Bank. recovery phase. How can meaningful sectors should be considered. 74 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES What Labor-Intensive Methods Can Offer THE CONCEPT countries, labor-intensive methods have The well-considered inclusion of labor-in- been mainstreamed through infrastructure tensive principles in the construction and or social programs by governments and maintenance of infrastructure and service development agencies in recognition of provision can generate significant levels of their impact on increasing incomes of meaningful employment when compared vulnerable people, while at the same time with conventional approaches. Labor- providing necessary infrastructure. The intensive construction methods have been International Labour Organisation (ILO) widely used to create employment to assist has been instrumental in developing this recovery from disasters or wars; they have approach. Box 1 provides some examples proved to be effective and much experience of employment creation during times of of their use exists. In many developing economic shock. Box 1. Use of Employment Creation Programs during Times of Economic Shock Employment creation programs, including labor-intensive public works, are an important tool for governments in developing countries. Such programs have historically been used in countries where unemployment and/or underemployment is high and at times of macroeconomic or climate shocks. For example: • Infrastructure investment in the United States during the Great Depression (Leduc and Wilson 2012); • In Indonesia, the government launched a social safety net program in 1998/99 in response to the financial crisis (Anant and Siregar 1999); • In India, the State of Maharashtra launched an employment guarantee scheme in the face of an acute drought in 1972/73 and in 2005 the government enacted the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) which provides guaranteed employment for works relating to rural develop- ment (Patel 2006); and • In South Africa, where the causes of unemployment are structural and historic, the government launched the Expanded Public Works Programme in 2004, aimed at developing the skills of the unemployed, and providing essential social services and physical infrastructure to disadvantaged communities (SACN 2017). FALL 2021 EDITION 75 Any infrastructure more than 150 years old of construction. While most roads, from was built using labor-intensive methods. major highways to minor access roads, Roads and other infrastructure built by are now constructed using a high level of hand are often more resilient than those machinery, in some situations simple paved constructed by machines due to the greater or unpaved rural access roads could be attention to detail possible during the constructed using methods that require a construction process. substantial proportion of labor. An economic “trickle down” effect from In considering employment creation construction work will benefit local programs, it is important to appreciate the businesses and informal vendors supplying difference between the number of workers raw materials, transport, accommodation, employed on a specific contract or activity, food, and other goods and services to large and the proportion of that contract value projects. used to employ workers. This distinction is illustrated indicatively in figure 1. For THE IMPACT example, although labor-intensive erosion As construction techniques have evolved, protection works convert a high proportion many of the tasks once performed by of the contract cost into jobs, a larger manual labor have been taken over by number of workers could be employed on a machines, which reduces the number of major highway contract, although a smaller workers required on a construction site, proportion of that investment is spent on and the proportion of a contract’s value wages. The key indicator for assessing the used to pay wages. This change has not effectiveness of an activity in converting been uniform, and substantial numbers of investment value into employment is the workers continue to be used in some types number of jobs created per unit of cost. Figure 1. Indicative Employment Creation for Different Types of Work Major highway labor-intensive enhanced Number of workers employed per contract Major highway Erosion protection Urban works works Labor-intensive rural road Percent of contract value used to pay workers Source: Original figure produced for this publication. 76 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES The adoption of labor-intensive construction maintenance and labor-intensive construc- methods requires a conscious decision to tion generate a high level of employment identify and prioritize those types of activity in relation to the investment; these areas that can be undertaken with a high propor- should therefore be the focus for maxi- tion of manual labor. The key to success is mizing long-term job creation. to maximize the amount of employment for a given level of investment while Employment opportunities can be targeted retaining a reasonable degree of efficiency to benefit specific groups in the community and ensuring quality of the end products. such as migrant workers, or female-headed Whatever the level of employment created, or low-income households who have been the need will always exist for some level of particularly disadvantaged as a result of other inputs such as transport, construction the pandemic. For targeting to be effective, materials, machinery, or hand tools. data on (un)employment levels, vulnera- bility, and migrant labor distribution will be The levels of direct employment expected required, although quality and availability for the construction of unpaved rural roads could be limited. Different approaches to range between 1,000 to 1,500 days of targeting are needed depending upon the employment per kilometer. As noted in the type of activity: for local-level communi- 2018 report copublished by the World Bank ty-based initiatives, targeting criteria can be and the ILO, “Assessment of Infrastructure built into the recruitment process managed Investments in Transport and Job by the local authority responsible for imple- Creation: Examples from Road Sector mentation. Targeting can be more difficult Investments in Lebanon and Jordan,” for in the case of large construction contracts, a range of mechanized contracts in the where labor selection criteria need to be Lebanon and Jordan approximately 4,200 agreed and implemented by contractors; person-days of employment per kilometer this topic is discussed in more detail in the could be created for rural roads and following section. significantly more, 8,000 person-days per kilometer, for urban roads, or 18 percent Employment creation programs can lead to 33 percent of the contract value. Road to major distortionary impacts on local maintenance work shows a significantly labor markets by affecting the demand and higher conversion of cost into salaries at supply of labor, and by influencing local approximately 50 percent than for mech- wages. It is important that the possibility of anized road construction works where the these impacts is considered in the design of proportion is unlikely to exceed 25 percent. the program. The use of tailored selection Other work indicates in India 13,500 processes can assist in mitigating such person-days of employment are created per distortions. Devereux and Solomon (2006) US$1 million of investment. found that short-term programs (lasting two to three years) designed to provide Mechanized construction work will convert livelihood opportunities in times of crisis a small proportion of the investment into have limited distortionary impact on the employment opportunities. Together, labor force. FALL 2021 EDITION 77 Potential Areas of Work for Labor- Intensive Programs If a labor-intensive program is to be Conventional labor-intensive programs: implemented successfully, the design must take into account: (1) the type of work to be • Rural infrastructure works — typically carried out; (2) the ease and speed of estab- unpaved road construction, but a lishment of the program, and (3) the social broad range of activities, including and political acceptability of labor-intensive landscaping, land conservation, work to beneficiaries and the authorities. erosion protection, water conservation infrastructure, irrigation schemes, urban The following principal options could be infrastructure works, and building con- considered for programs dedicated to struction are suitable for labor-intensive employment generation under the present techniques. circumstances: • Programs could be implemented using • Conventional labor-intensive programs government departments, community groups or micro, small and medium • Existing community infrastructure enterprises (MSMEs). The choice should programs be influenced by what is already avail- able or working. The establishment of • Scale-up of employment opportunities private sector contractors (if they do not in major construction contracts already exist) will be time consuming and produce only a moderate success rate. • Cash transfer or food for-work programs Existing community infrastructure programs: • Maintenance works • Explore programs based on an existing • COVID-19 related activities community development initiative to take advantage of existing frameworks, Whichever option is adopted, each staff, and experience. requires a systematic capacity building program for all stakeholders. Labor- • Scale up existing programs by using intensive methods require high levels of available institutional, operational and labor management skills in addition to pro- capacity-building models as a quick gram management, planning, engineering route to the creation of sustainable design, labor management and supervision, employment. In some cases, compro- and reporting to attain the desired levels of mises might need to be made in the productivity, quality, and efficiency. wider objectives of such programs. 78 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Other components could be added as • This approach has the advantage of implementation progresses to address producing results quickly. Scale-ups any missing elements. depend upon receptive attitudes on the part of contractors, achieved through • Assess the capacity and effectiveness negotiation and perhaps the use of of an existing program before a final incentives to reach agreed targets. decision is taken. Interventions to increase capacity might be required as • For contracts, employment scale-up can part of the scale-up. be achieved by customizing the design and procurement process to incentivize • While these programs provide the substitution of equipment by labor. meaningful employment, they risk Target values could be given for the being transient, usually as a result of proportion of expenditure spent on seasonal, cultural or program design labor, or the proportion of jobs allocated factors. Perhaps the most significant to vulnerable groups. Such provisions challenge to sustainability is the lack of can be abused by contractors; although the required resources or organizational they might meet the targets, the jobs framework for asset maintenance. created might not be meaningful and are absorbed by the contractor as a cost Scale-up of employment opportunities in of doing business. Contracting models major construction contracts: to create jobs in construction include the following: (1) force account, where a • Major works contracts using largely government agency hires and manages mechanized techniques can create sig- labor directly; (2) conventional con- nificant levels of employment, although tracting, where the selected contractor at lower levels of jobs per investment employer hires labor; (3) subcontracting, unit than labor-intensive works. where the main contractor subcontracts Opportunities to substitute equipment parts of the main contract that are with labor need to be identified; the labor intensive to smaller firms; and (4) necessary technical oversight and an agency model, where a nonprofit labor-management techniques must organization or project manager hires be introduced. Examples of tasks most and manages the labor. Preferably, suitable for implementation by labor employment creation initiatives would include masonry, drainage activities, be assumed by a contractor as part bush clearance, placing fill in confined of their corporate social responsibility spaces, erosion protection, and building agenda. construction activities. Box 2 illustrates a plausible scenario of identifying employment opportunities for a large-scale rail construction project. FALL 2021 EDITION 79 Box 2. Scenario: Identifying Opportunities to Increase Employment Imagine a new rail line is being constructed through arid terrain, crossing sandy and alluvial soils. The contractor decides to construct the low embankment for the track-bed by using laborers to excavate the alluvial material occurring within 10 meters of the alignment to form the embankment. Five hundred laborers are able to construct 1 kilometer of embankment each day. The contractor finds this to be more cost effective and easier to implement than using equipment to build the embankment. Thus, the combination of easily excavated soils, very short haul distance, and the availability of labor produced the opportunity to substitute equipment with labor. Source: Original content produced for this publication. Maintenance works: COVID-19-related activities: • Rural and urban infrastructure mainte- • Within the context of the coronavirus nance activities offer important sources pandemic, transport service providers of sustainable employment, provided are required to adopt new protocols in the financing is secured though recur- order to resume operations safely and rent expenditure budgets. retain the trust of the traveling public. The pandemic has created new areas • Routine maintenance of rural roads of work: sanitization of public transport is often carried out using self-help facilities, streets, and public places; groups, community maintenance or cleaning and sanitization of rolling stock length-person systems. In many such and buses for public transport; cleaning arrangements, women occupy a high and sanitization of workplaces; supervi- proportion of the jobs. sion of social distancing; contact tracing; management of quarantine procedures; • The level of employment created is and the manufacture of protective relatively low, up to one or two persons equipment. per kilometer of rural road; however, the jobs created are long-lasting. • Some activities would be suitable for Routine maintenance activities may also small or medium businesses, which be structured to allow private sector could either be created or repurposed management through performance for the work. contracts. 80 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Program Identification and the Design Process Important steps in identifying and • Opportunities to maximize benefits: designing a labor-intensive employment Once the main scope of a program creation program are as follows: has been identified, complementary investments that would enhance the • Define the program objectives: Clarity benefits of primary investments under in what the program is to achieve the program should also be considered. is essential. Is the goal to provide For example, a rural roads mainte- short-term jobs and income, or more nance program could also consider sustainable long-term employment? maintaining rural market structures, Who will benefit, and how can women warehouses, cold storage, water, and and vulnerable community members be sanitation infrastructure. Such an included? Is it part of a wider strategy integrated approach would not only to address the jobs market or migrant enhance the benefits of the program labor? What type of jobs are needed? to the local community through better infrastructure, but also create an • Map the levels of employment and ecosystem in which a larger proportion underemployment: It is essential to of the local population can participate. If identify the areas of need in terms small contractors are part of the pro- of gender, vulnerability, and migrant gram, this diversification will strengthen labor across the country for a targeted their future sustainability. approach to job creation to be effective. The situation will change rapidly with • Social and community considerations: time or season. Data collection pro- Employment creation initiatives present cesses need to be responsive to reflect unique challenges that should be changes over time. factored into program designs. These challenges include the interests and • Program identification: For each cultural practices of communities as target area, establish those sectors in well as wage levels. Programs must be need of infrastructure or services, and designed not to interfere with other the activities required. Match the types essential community livelihood activities, of activity to the acceptability level of such as agriculture. labor-intensive methods; extensive consultation will be necessary. As the • Build capacity: Establish the basic target areas become clearer, the map- institutional capacity to enable public ping process should expand to consider agencies to prepare, package, and the wider labor market and potential manage the programs, rolling out impacts on program design. This stage later to program implementers and lies at the heart of the process, and is communities. represented in figure 2. FALL 2021 EDITION 81 • Operational details: Establish the Labor-intensive programs could include program financing schemes and the either programs established specifically in procedures for planning, activity design, response to COVID-19, or existing programs procurement, and implementation. that can be scaled up to provide additional employment opportunities. The best overall • Monitoring, reporting and evalua- solution that most closely matches the tion: Frameworks will be needed for above requirements should be adopted. managers to supervise implementation, regular reporting of progress, and program impacts to be assessed. Figure 2. Activity Selection Guide Objective: Environment and Type of The type of job attitudes to consider employment Ongoing LI program Major works contracts Immediate: Short term jobs for income Existing local No previous LI experience infrastructure program Degree of contractor Maintenance works interest Degree of political or COVID-related activities Sustainable jobs community support for longer term Labour intensive Supply chains program Source: Original figure produced for this publication. IMPLICATIONS OF COVID-19 live-at-home approach significantly in- FOR PROGRAM DESIGN creases the risk of propagation of infection. Recruitment and organization of labor: The Even if social-distancing protocols are fol- conventional guidance on labor recruitment lowed, the risk of transmission remains. The for construction activities is to hire workers options are examined more closely from the from the communities around the areas perspective of “worker 1” through figures 3 where the work will take place so that the and 4. Although they are presented as two workers can live at home, traveling to work distinct options, in practice a site may need each day. Does COVID-19 mean this needs to adopt a combination due to their specific to change? The widespread movement labor requirements. and mingling of people resulting from this 82 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Figure 3. Spheres of Risk with Workers Living in the Community Community sphere of risk Family Workplace sphere of risk Community Worker Community Worker Worker 1 Worker Family Family Family Community Source: Original figure produced for this publication. Living-at-home/in the community (figure 3) risk extends to worker 1’s community, and means that worker 1 will be in contact and the families and communities of their fellow interact with (1) family members, who will workers. also be in contact others in the community; (2) others in their community; (3) fellow Living onsite (figure 4) means that worker workers, along with their families and 1’s interaction outside the workplace is communities, while at work or traveling to much more limited, although they do spend and from the site, whether on foot or on more time in “managed” contact with fellow vehicles provided by the workplace. Each workers. Opportunities for transmission are type of possible contact provides opportu- restricted to the worksite environment and nities for wider transmission. The sphere of sphere of risk. FALL 2021 EDITION 83 Figure 4. Sphere of Risk when Workers Live Onsite Workplace sphere of risk Worker Worker Worker 1 Worker Source: Original figure produced for this publication. The immediate reaction to the above wider pool of potential transmission routes figures is that workers should live onsite exists when workers live with their families, due to the greatly reduced sphere of risk. the risk of any one of those probably brief However, an assessment from a public contacts with an infected person resulting health perspective is needed of the poten- in transmission could be reduced. The tial work-type options to balance the risks downside of the live-at-home scenario is the and arrive at the correct decision. Naturally, risk infection transmits from one family or the risk of transmission between workers community to another through worker-to- living and working together will be higher, worker contact at the workplace. Therefore, but the conditions for transmission can be the potential for wider propagation of the controlled and monitored, and any outbreak disease is greater. would be contained. Although a much Employment: The Longer-Term Perspective This note has been prepared in the context and efficiency in economies throughout of responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, the world. Increasingly, people rely on the or similar crisis, and the role labor-intensive informal sector or the gig economy for their programs can play in mitigating the livelihoods. Increased attention needs to be References resulting shocks. However, employment given to the evolution of the employment creation has a much wider relevance given environment to ensure social sustainability the trends for accelerating automation for future generations. 84 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Article Mobility on Demand (MOD) and Mobility as a Service (MaaS): Similarities, Differences, and Potential Implications for Transportation in the Developing World References Shaheen, Susan, and Adam Cohen. 2020. “Chapter 3 — Mobility on Demand (MOD) and Mobility as a Service (MaaS): Early Understanding of Shared Mobility Impacts and Public Transit Partnerships.” In Demand for Emerging Transportation Systems: Modeling Adoption, Satisfaction, and Mobility Patterns, edited by Constantinos Antoniou, Dimitrios Efthymiou, and Emmanouil Chaniotakis, 37-59. UC Berkeley, Transportation Sustainability Research Center: Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-815018-4.00003-6. Shaheen, Susan, Adam Cohen, Balaji Yelchuru, and Sara Sarkhili. 2017. “Mobility on Demand Operational Concept Report.” U. S. Department of Transportation. Report # FHWA-JPO-18-611. https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/34258. Additional Resources For more information on mobility on demand, see the following publications, also coau- thored by Susan Shaheen and Adam Cohen, for the U.S. Department of Transportation: “Mobility on Demand Operational Concept” and “Mobility on Demand Planning and Implementation: Current Practices, Innovations, and Emerging Mobility Futures.” Stay tuned for a new report by the World Bank, “Adapting Mobility-as-a-Service for Developing Cities: A Context-Relevant Approach” to be launched this Fall. See also: • Cohen, Adam and Susan Shaheen. 2016. “Planning for Shared Mobility.” Planning Advisory Service (PAS) 583, American Planning Association, Washington, D.C. https://planning.org/publications/report/9107556/. • Shaheen, Susan, Adam Cohen, Michael Randolph, Emily Farrar, Richard Davis, and Aqshems Nichols. 2019. “Shared Mobility Policy Playbook.” UC Berkeley Return to page 21 Transportation Sustainability Research Center, Berkeley, CA. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9678b4xs. FALL 2021 EDITION 85 Quantifying the Health Co-Benefits of Active Mobility: Article Developing Tools for Health Impact Assessments of Transport Choices in Five Latin American Cities References Achakulwisut, P., M. Brauer, P. Hystad, and S. C. Anenberg. 2019. “Global, National, and Urban Burdens of Paediatric Asthma Incidence Attributable to Ambient NO2 Pollution: Estimates from Global Datasets.” The Lancet Planetary Health 3 (4): e166–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30046-4. 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Götschi. 2018. “Transport Mode Choice and Body Mass Index: Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Evidence from a European- Wide Study.” Environment International 119 (October): 109–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.06.023. Return to page 56 88 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES Fuller, G. 2018. The Invisible Killer. London: Melville House UK. https://www.mhp- books.com/books/melville-house-uk-the-invisible-killer/. Gerike, R., A. de Nazelle, M. Nieuwenhuijsen, L. I. Panis, E. Anaya, I. Avila-Palencia, F. Boschetti, C. Brand, T. Cole-Hunter, E. Dons, U. Eriksson, M. Gaupp-Berghausen, S. Kahlmeier, M. Laeremans, N. Mueller, J. P. Orjuela, F. Racioppi, E. Raser, D. Rojas- Rueda, C. Schweizer, A. Standaert, T. Uhlmann, T. Götschi, and S. Wegener. 2016. “Physical Activity through Sustainable Transport Approaches (PASTA): A Study Protocol for a Multicentre Project.” BMJ Open 6 (1): e009924. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2015-009924. Giles, L. V., S. J. 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Return to page 83 FALL 2021 EDITION 91 Image credits Cover Page: Suwin/Shutterstock Page 4-5: Franz Mahr/World Bank Page 6-7: Hendri Lombard/World Bank Page 10, 11, 20: Chan2545/Shutterstock Page 22, 23, 29: Gaurav Shrishrimal/Shutterstock Page 30-31: Sarah Farhat/World Bank Page 42-43: Marmolejos/Shutterstock Page 44, 45, 51: Dominic Chavez/World Bank Page 57: Vitpho/Shutterstock Page 58-59: Salmanlp/Shutterstock Page 72-73: Gerardo Pesantez/World Bank 92 MOBILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: INNOVATIONS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES