The World Bank Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625) REPORT NO.: RES45632 RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF THE SOCIAL HEALTH INSURANCE PROJECT: IMPROVING ACCESS, QUALITY, EFFICIENCY AND FINANCIAL PROTECTION APPROVED ON APRIL 27, 2016 TO THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN HEALTH, NUTRITION & POPULATION EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA Regional Vice President: Anna M. Bjerde Country Director: Lilia Burunciuc Regional Director: Fadia M. Saadah Practice Manager/Manager: Tania Dmytraczenko Task Team Leader(s): Carlos Marcelo Bortman, Baktybek Zhumadil The World Bank Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS COVID-19 Coronavirus disease GoK Government of Kazakhstan IR Intermediate Results MCH Maternal and child health MoH Ministry of Health MS Moderately Satisfactory MSHI Mandatory Social Health Insurance MTR Mid-term Review PCR Polymerase chain reaction PDO Project Development Objective PHC Primary health care PMU Project Management Unit SARS-CoV-2 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 SHIF Social Health Insurance Fund TA Technical assistance WHO World Health Organization The World Bank Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625) BASIC DATA Product Information Project ID Financing Instrument P152625 Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Current EA Category Not Required (C) Not Required (C) Approval Date Current Closing Date 27-Apr-2016 30-Jun-2021 Organizations Borrower Responsible Agency Republic of Kazakhstan Ministry of Health,Ministry of Health Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The proposed Project Development Objective is to improve accessibility, quality, and efficiency of health service delivery, and reduce financial risks to the population that are caused by serious health problems. OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDO Summary Status of Financing (US$, Millions) Net Ln/Cr/Tf Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed IBRD-86170 27-Apr-2016 01-Nov-2016 27-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2021 80.00 32.70 47.30 Policy Waiver(s) Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No The World Bank Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625) I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING 1. The Project was approved on April 27, 2016 and was declared effective on June 27, 2017. The Project has three components: Component 1: Supporting implementation of the national mandatory Social Health Insurance system (original cost: US$16.63 million); Component 2: Strengthening of health service delivery to support implementation of the national mandatory Social Health Insurance system (original cost: US$62.94 million); and Component 3: Project management, monitoring and evaluation, and communications strategy (original cost: US$10.43 million). The Ministry of Health (MoH) has the overall responsibility for implementation and oversight of the Project. The Social Health Insurance Fund (SHIF), a non-profit joint stock company subordinated to the Government of Kazakhstan (GoK), is one of the beneficiaries and implementing entities for Component 1. As a beneficiary, the SHIF receives advisory services and capacity building. As an implementing entity, the SHIF is involved in the design and implementation of mechanisms, tools, and processes envisaged under the Project, with funding for these activities managed by the MoH. The MoH is assisted by the Project Management Unit (PMU), a team of full-time local technical and fiduciary consultants and support staff with experience in World Bank procedures who fulfill daily coordination, procurement, financial management, and monitoring and evaluation functions. Project Implementation Status 2. Progress towards achievement of the Project Development Objective (PDO). The PDO is to improve accessibility, quality, and efficiency of health service delivery, and reduce financial risks to the population that are caused by serious health problems. The progress towards achievement of PDO and overall implementation progress have been rated Moderately Satisfactory or higher since April 2019. The PDO rating was upgraded to Satisfactory in April 2020 given the smooth launch of the second phase of the Mandatory Social Health Insurance (MSHI) reform. However, the rating was downgraded to Moderately Satisfactory, mainly given delays in initiating this proposed Project restructuring. Satisfactory progress of health sector reforms and towards the achievement of the PDO is reflected in some of the PDO-level indicators, while some reversal is observed in others given the impact of restrictions due to COVID-19. Specifically, three out of five indicators (PDO 1, 4, and 5) have achieved their end-targets, while two indicators (PDO 2 and 3) recorded reversals. Specifically, the MoH/PMU annual implementation progress report for 2020 shows the following: a. PDO 1: Public expenditure share for primary health care (PHC) has increased to 45.2% (2019) from the baseline of 35% (2016), surpassing the Project end target (40%). b. PDO 2: Outpatient surgeries for selected cases1 has decreased from 31.9% (2019) to 28% (2021) from the baseline of less than 5% (target: 40%). This decrease in the share of outpatient elective surgeries has been due to the suspension of all routine health services for a few months during the COVID-19 lockdown periods. c. PDO 3: Technical audits of inpatient services are under implementation, but have decreased from 26.6% (2019) to 26.2% (2020) of all contracted inpatient services subject to technical audit (target: 30%), also due to a more limited scope of technical audits during the pandemic. d. PDO 4: The SHIF is fully functional based on predefined criteria. The SHIF is fully functional, as evidenced by the fact that all six criteria as part of its functioning as the purchaser of health services under the State-Guaranteed Benefits Package and MSHI have been satisfied: (i) the law on MSHI was adopted and relevant by-laws were 1For this indicator, the 5 most common outpatient surgical interventions were considered: removal of the umbilical hernia, local excision of the affected area of the mammary gland, reposition of nasal bones, hydrocele, and drainage of soft tissue abscess. The World Bank Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625) updated; (ii) SHIF signed contracts with providers for a specific sets of services; (iii) the insurance package has been approved (Government Decree No. 421, dated June 20, 2019) and is under implementation; (iv) SHIF completed annual external financial audits for previous years; and (v) SHIF has positive balance between revenues and expenses; (iv) while utilization of, and payments for, regular health services were adversely affected by the COVID-19-related restrictions in Quarters 1 and 2 of 2020, the adjustments to payment terms and schedules subsequently implemented by the SHIF have introduced flexibility that has allowed for the achievement of the last criterion (health facilities received payments for services contracted by SHIF, in accordance with payment schedules specified in their contracts). e. PDO 5. The value of PDO indicator 5 (decline in the proportion of the bottom 40% of households incurring out-of- pocket expenditures on health that exceed 10% of total non-food related household spending) has decreased compared to the value of 13.7% in 2018 and, based on official data for 2019, reached 10.7%. The 2020 value for this indicator will be available by September 2021. 3. Implementation status. Overall implementation progress is rated Moderately Satisfactory in line with the latest Implementation Status and Results Report of April 2021. Despite the achievement of almost all intermediate results (IR) indicators (except IR indicator 7 on implementation of unified register of human resources for health), the rating reflects the continued delays in initiating the project restructuring and issues with implementation of several contracts. These delays have mainly been related to the review of deliverables and payments by the MoH under a few contracts, as well as some contractual disputes under three technical assistance (TA) contracts, with a potential arbitration case under one of them. The MoH has also cancelled two contracts for goods under Component 2 that were no longer relevant in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and terminated eight contracts for goods and TA under Components 2 and 3 because they were no longer relevant or due to violation of contractual provisions by the suppliers/consultants. The remaining activities under all the three Components are expected to be completed by the current closing date of June 30, 2021, except for a couple of TA contracts where additional tasks may need to be undertaken. 4. Commitments and disbursements. As of June 3, 2021, US$32.7 million (or 40.9% of the Loan) has been disbursed, with total (unpaid) commitments standing at US$13.3 million. Cumulative disbursements are expected to reach US$38.1 million (or 47.6%) by June 30, 2021. The remaining US$30.5 million, plus up to US$2.9 million in savings from ongoing TA contracts, are planned to be used for the procurement of goods (medical and laboratory equipment) and fully disbursed within 9 months, should the extension of the closing date be approved through this proposed restructuring. Continued relevance of the Project 5. The Project continues to be highly relevant and fully aligned with “Kazakhstan-2050 Strategy: New Political Course of the Established State” (Strategy 2050) which lays out Kazakhstan’s objective to join the top 30 most developed economies in the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development by 2050. The PDO also echoes the National Priority 2 in the National Development Plan until 2025, approved in February 2021, which calls for an effective and efficient healthcare system. The Project is closely aligned with the 2018 Kazakhstan Systematic Country Diagnostic and the FY2020-25 Country Partnership Framework, under Focus Area 2: Strengthening Human Capital pursues Objective 5: Increase Access to Quality Health Services and Social Protection. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Project’s high relevance is reflected in the fact that it helped ensure access to quality intensive care services by efficiently procuring the much-needed life-saving equipment. Also, as part of this proposed restructuring, the Project would enhance quality and efficiency of laboratory diagnostic services as well as improve access to and quality of maternal and child health (MCH) and intensive care services, as detailed in subsequent paragraphs. The World Bank Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625) Rationale for restructuring 6. An outbreak of the COVID-19 caused by the 2019 novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV- 2) has been spreading rapidly across the world since December 2019. Since the beginning of March 2020, the number of cases outside China has grown exponentially and the crisis has reached global scale. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global pandemic as the coronavirus rapidly spreads across the world. As of June 3, 2021, the outbreak has resulted in an estimated 171,771,486 cases and 3,693,509 deaths in 192 countries.2The COVID-19 pandemic has placed a renewed focus on the unfinished agenda of communicable diseases, while also highlighting the urgent need to strengthen epidemiological surveillance, preparedness, and response to emerging public health threats. 7. The first cases of COVID-19 were registered in Kazakhstan on March 13, 2020, and a national lockdown was imposed on March 16, 2020 through a Presidential Decree. As of June 1, 2021, the number of registered cases that tested positive for COVID-19 through a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test reached a total of 390,376, of which 362,018 patients have recovered and 4,007 patients have died. In addition, out of an additional 55,477 cases with symptoms similar to COVID-19 but negative test results, 51,457 patients have recovered, and 3,376 patients have died. 8. In response to a request from the MoH dated March 16, 2020 and to address the threats posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank and MoH have adjusted the procurement plan to direct US$27.6 million under the Project for the COVID-19 response. This was done without a restructuring because the Project, as designed, already included activities to strengthen public health and emergency medical services. Flexibilities offered by streamlined procurement procedures triggered by the emergency situation were also effectively used to ensure timely and adequate response to the pandemic. This has enabled the MoH to successfully procure 491 mechanical ventilators and 87 kinetic therapy devices for a total of US$22 million. The remaining US$5.6 million is reserved for any additional potential emergency procurement needs and has not been utilized so far. Upon their phased delivery, the procured devices are distributed to hospitals across the whole country. Albeit with substantial delays due to supply chain disruptions, to date, all the 491 ventilators and 87 kinetic therapy devices have been delivered and distributed to hospitals, with 251 of the ventilators having not yet been formally accepted and/or paid by the MoH. 9. Kazakhstan’s COVID-19 vaccination campaign began on February 1, 2021 with priority groups specified in the national vaccination plan.3 Currently, Kazakhstan’s main source of the COVID-19 vaccine is from Russia (Sputnik V vaccine). Kazakhstan has a bilateral agreement with Russia for approximately 5.1 million doses. The initial batches of 22,000 and 80,000 doses were delivered from Russia, while an additional 2 million doses are being produced at Kazakhstan’s Karaganda Pharmaceutical Plant, with plans to purchase an additional 3 million doses. These quantities are be delivered in phases from Russia and the Karaganda Pharmaceutical Plant. In addition to Sputnik V, two local vaccine candidates are currently undergoing clinical trials, with 100,000 doses of one of them (QazCovid-In vaccine) already produced and distributed to the regions as of early May 2021. Kazakhstan has also received 1 million doses of Sinopharm’s Hayat-Vax vaccine produced in United Arab Emirates and 500,000 doses of Sinovac’s CoronaVac vaccine. Finally, the MoH is also negotiating the purchase of the Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson vaccines. It is planned to vaccinate a total of 9.9 million (or 52.4 percent) of the total population by September 2021. 2Johns Hopkins University. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 3 Originally specified target groups included (in order of priority) health workers; teachers; local police officers; students; personnel and contingent of medical, social and closed children's institutions; employees of the emergency situations service, ministries of defense, internal affairs, the Committee national security, State Security Service of the Republic of Kazakhstan; contingent of the Administrative Department of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, civil servants, citizens of the Republic Kazakhstan, who are employees of diplomatic and consular institutions accredited in Kazakhstan, members of national teams; and persons with chronic diseases (diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, of cardio-vascular system). The World Bank Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625) As of June 3, 2021, 2,158,946 people have received the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine; while 1,117,972 have received both doses, which represents 6% of the total population. 10. The GoK through letter # 005-DG/11751-I from the Ministry of Finance dated June 2, 2021 requested a 9-month extension of the Loan Closing Date and a reallocation of the Loan funds among withdrawal categories to finance additional medical equipment. The new equipment proposed to be procured as part of this restructuring to support the existing activities under Component 2 is necessitated by emerging national priorities. Specifically, in terms of the proposed laboratory equipment, the State Health Care Development Program of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2020- 2025 envisages the enhancement of biological safety of laboratories for sanitary and epidemiological examination, their provision with modern equipment, and development of a biomedical research market, including the conduct of international and multi-center research. Therefore, equipping the National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections with a new-generation genetic sequencer and automated systems (robotic stations) for isolation of DNA, RNA, proteins and cells will increase the diagnostic accuracy, efficiency, and capacity and improve the quality of laboratory studies. This will strengthen active epidemiological surveillance of various infectious diseases (COVID-19, influenza viruses, enteroviruses) and PCR diagnostics of especially dangerous infections, thereby also contributing to efficiency, quality, and capacity of the health system in general. 11. Along with this, MCH issues and quality of intensive care are gaining special social significance in Kazakhstan. MCH is reflected as a high priority in all key national and sectoral strategies, including the long-term Strategy 2050 and the State Health Care Development Program of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2020-2025. Since Kazakhstan’s move to the WHO-recommended criteria of live births and stillbirth in 2008-2010, the country has three-tier system of maternal and neonatal care. Full-fledged implementation of this system had required mobilization of the best human resources and modern equipment to enable provision of high-quality specialized care for small-for-date newborns and complicated pregnancies. However, simultaneous provision of the necessary equipment to all MCH facilities proved challenging for a long period of time. The President of Kazakhstan’s recent instruction to “undertake effective measures to improve the quality of and access to health services, including to reduce the regional disbalances in indicators of population’s health, especially in terms of maternal and infant mortality, which substantially exceed the level of developed countries” provided an additional impetus to strengthen MCH and intensive care services. Therefore, the protection of the health of women and children, as well as the delivery of quality and timely intensive care have become critical areas of engagement for health authorities and health facilities in the country. Such engagement is focused on the provision of accessible and qualified obstetrical and neonatal services and aimed at reductions of maternal and perinatal deaths, given that exactly these indicators have the potential of substantially influencing Kazakhstan’s future demographic situation. 12. Taking into account the remaining funds available and limited timeframe until the proposed revised closing date of the Project, only tertiary-care institutions at the republican level providing MCH and intensive care services will be prioritized for the provision of the necessary equipment. A comprehensive assessment of needs is currently being conducted. The strengthening of the institutions providing MCH and intensive care services at the republican level would enhance their role as lead institutions in their respective areas, which has lost its significance over the past years due to the overall inadequate level and significant wear and tear of equipment and quality of human resources available. More specifically, the proposed procurement of equipment for MCH and intensive care services will: (a) improve access to and quality of MCH services; (b) introduce innovative health technologies into obstetrical and neonatal practice; (c) institutionalize obstetrical and neonatal services; (d) strengthen the role of tertiary-level research institutions at the republican level in the development of scientific and methodological bases of the health sector; (e) enhance the effectiveness of supervisory role of the tertiary-level research institutions vis-à-vis regional health facilities; and (f) improve the situation with maternal and infant mortality. The World Bank Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625) II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES 13. This is the second restructuring that seeks (i) a reallocation between disbursement categories to enable full utilization of the currently uncommitted loan amount; (ii) a nine-month extension of the Project closing date from June 30, 2021 to March 31, 2022 to allow for the initiation and completion of new processes to procure the necessary laboratory and medical equipment; and (iii) adjustments to the results framework to allow for a better measurement of PDO-level and intermediate results of the Project.4 No change to the current PDO is required, as the proposed new procurement packages support the original PDO, further enhance the Project’s relevance, scale up its impact, and improve sustainability of outcomes by strengthening the overall health system. 14. Reallocation between disbursement categories. This restructuring seeks a reallocation of US$8.47 million from Component 1 (Category 1) to Component 2 (Category 2). This amount represents savings from TA and training activities under Component 1. In addition, adjustments in the total amount of US$20.6 million will be made within Category 2 (within Component 2, and from Component 3 to Component 2), which comprise savings and amounts released under the cancelled/terminated contracts under Components 2 and 3. These reallocation and adjustments of Project funds will be utilized to finance the following new procurement packages under Component 2: (a) laboratory equipment to strengthen diagnostic capacity of laboratory services; and (b) medical equipment to strengthen capacity of tertiary-care institutions providing MCH and intensive care services at the republican level. 15. These proposed reallocations between and within disbursement categories will enable full utilization of the currently uncommitted loan amount. Moreover, the proposed new procurement packages do not require any changes to be made to the Project description in the Loan Agreement, as they support, respectively, the existing activities (sub)components 2.A (i) and 2.B (i) specified in the Loan Agreement, namely: (a) the proposed laboratory equipment will contribute to “developing a health facility network, involving the establishment of a public health service to increase the promotion of a healthy lifestyle, reduce risk factors for non-communicable diseases, strengthen the epidemiological surveillance system for outbreaks, and build capacity in public health policy planning and health services delivery; and (b) the proposed medical equipment will support managing the quality of health care services, involving the improvement of clinical practice by developing a system for implementing, and monitoring the introduction of, clinical protocols. 16. The reductions in amounts of Components 1 and 3 resulting from these reallocation and cost adjustments will not affect the completion of the originally programmed activities and will not put at risk the achievement of the PDO, because most PDO-level and IR indicators have been achieved, and addressing the most critical current priorities will further enhance the relevance, efficacy, and impact of the Project. Detailed information on components and costs is outlined in Table 1. 4The first restructuring (report No. RES33479, dated December 4, 2018) included only adjustments to some indicators’ definitions, target values, and timing of achievement of targets to better reflect the updated, two-phase timeline of the MSHI implementation. The World Bank Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625) Table 1: Changes to Components and Costs Original Cost Proposed Cost Component Name Counterpart Counterpart Total IBRD Total IBRD Funds Funds (US$M) (US$M) (US$M) (US$M) (US$M) (US$M) Supporting implementation of the national 16.63 14.68 1.95 6.92 6.21 0.71 mandatory Social Health Insurance system Strengthening of health service delivery to support implementation of the national 62.94 56.11 6.83 77.22 68.47 8.75 mandatory Social Health Insurance system Project management, monitoring and 10.43 9.21 1.22 5.86 5.32 0.54 evaluation, and communications strategy Total IBRD 90 80 10 90 80 10 17. Loan Closing Date. A nine-month extension of the Project closing date, from June 30, 2021 to March 31, 2022, is proposed to allow for the initiation and completion of new processes to procure the necessary laboratory and medical equipment. If approved, this would be the first extension of the original closing date. 18. Implementation Schedule. The implementation schedule has been revised to be consistent with the nine-month extension of the Project closing date. 19. Disbursement estimates. Estimates and timeframe have been revised to update projections based on the expected implementation pace of the ongoing activities and new procurement packages. 20. Results Framework. Adjustments to the Results Framework will allow for better measurement of PDO-level and intermediate results of the Project and will include addition of a new intermediate results indicator and revision of end-target values for six new intermediate results indicators, as described below. a. A new IR indicator will be introduced to measure quality of health care: “Number of new clinical protocols developed for intensive care in obstetrics and for neonatology”. b. End-target values for six of the eleven IR indicators have been increased to align with the revised territorial division of Kazakhstan (new Turkestan Oblast created as the 17th region in 2018) and/or successful achievement of the current target values. 21. Social and Environmental Safeguards. The Project has been assigned a category “C”. The proposed restructuring will not trigger any new safeguard policy, and the Environmental Assessment category will not change, as the medical and laboratory equipment to be procured will comply with most up-to-date requirements for environmental safety and efficiency. Also, while the Project will finance the equipment and related costs (training, maintenance, etc.), the refurbishment works necessary for the installation of the equipment will be undertaken in advance and paid for by the beneficiary institutions. 22. Financial Management and Procurement arrangements. There will be no changes in Financial Management and Procurement arrangements. Financial Management arrangements concerning budget, accounting, flow of funds, treasury, internal controls, and audits arrangements will remain as specified in the original Project design. Financial The World Bank Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625) Management performance has been adequate and there are no overdue audits or interim (unaudited) financial reports. 23. Project Risks. The following description of project risks reflects the risk profile reflected in the latest Implementation Status and Results Report of April 2021. The overall risk to achievement of the PDO continues to be Substantial, though there have been some changes in sub-risks. Since 2019, sector strategies and policies, technical design, and institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability risks have been downgraded from Substantial to Moderate due to the sound strategies and policies pursued in implementation of the MSHI system, extensive communications, stakeholder and beneficiary engagement and proactive feedback, among others. The macroeconomic, stakeholders, and other (reputational) risks remain Substantial given the macroeconomic situation related to the overall spread of COVID-19 and overall continued sensitivity of the MSHI reform, as well as public concerns related to the epidemiological situation. Fiduciary risk was downgraded from High to Substantial in April 2020 given the launch of procurement processes for almost all of the remaining contracts and the ability of the PMU/MoH to efficiently process procurements of the much needed mechanical ventilators in a time of significant global supply stress. With regard to this restructuring, Fiduciary risk remains Substantial based on the possibility of delays in preparing the technical specifications, as well as the long internal approval process within the MoH. In addition, there are also important risks related to the packaging, specifications, supply chains, and the market response that need to be considered before approving the final procurement plan. To mitigate these risks, an initial procurement plan with the high-value medical equipment contracts to be executed will be finalized based on a comprehensive market analysis. The market analysis will be completed as soon as possible by the PMU/MoH in order to propose the best fit-for-purpose procurement approach for these critical procurements. III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Results Framework ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Disbursement Estimates ✔ Overall Risk Rating ✔ Implementation Schedule ✔ Implementing Agency ✔ DDO Status ✔ Project's Development Objectives ✔ PBCs ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ The World Bank Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625) Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ EA category ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ Financial Management ✔ Procurement ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ Economic and Financial Analysis ✔ Technical Analysis ✔ Social Analysis ✔ Environmental Analysis ✔ IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S) OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_COMPONENTS_TABLE COMPONENTS Current Current Proposed Proposed Cost Action Component Name Component Name Cost (US$M) (US$M) Component 1. Supporting Component 1. Supporting implementation of the national implementation of the national 16.63 Revised 6.92 mandatory Social Health mandatory Social Health Insurance system Insurance system Component 2. Strengthening of Component 2. Strengthening health service delivery to support of health service delivery to implementation of the national 62.94 Revised support implementation of the 77.22 mandatory Social Health national mandatory Social Insurance system Health Insurance system Component 3. Project Component 3. Project management, monitoring and management, monitoring and 10.43 Revised 5.86 evaluation, and communications evaluation, and strategy communications strategy TOTAL 90.00 90.00 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_LOANCLOSING_TABLE The World Bank Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625) LOAN CLOSING DATE(S) Original Revised Proposed Proposed Deadline Ln/Cr/Tf Status Closing Closing(s) Closing for Withdrawal Applications IBRD-86170 Effective 30-Jun-2021 31-Mar-2022 31-Jul-2022 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_REALLOCATION _TABLE REALLOCATION BETWEEN DISBURSEMENT CATEGORIES Financing % Current Allocation Actuals + Committed Proposed Allocation (Type Total) Current Proposed IBRD-86170-001 | Currency: USD iLap Category Sequence No: (1) Current Expenditure Category: NON-CS, CS, TR PART 1 14,678,000.00 4,034,277.72 6,205,900.00 100.00 100.00 iLap Category Sequence No: (2) Current Expenditure Category: GO, NON-CS, CS, TR PT 2,3; OC PT 3 65,322,000.00 27,285,220.70 73,794,100.00 100.00 100.00 Total 80,000,000.00 31,319,498.42 80,000,000.00 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_DISBURSEMENT_TABLE DISBURSEMENT ESTIMATES Change in Disbursement Estimates Yes Year Current Proposed 2016 0.00 0.00 2017 0.00 0.00 2018 1,092,328.00 1,090,000.00 2019 10,707,672.00 3,350,000.00 2020 29,300,000.00 12,630,000.00 2021 38,900,000.00 21,030,000.00 2022 0.00 41,900,000.00 The World Bank Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625) OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_SORT_TABLE SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT) Risk Category Rating at Approval Current Rating Political and Governance Moderate Moderate Macroeconomic Substantial Substantial Sector Strategies and Policies Substantial Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program Substantial Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Substantial Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary Substantial Substantial Environment and Social Moderate Moderate Stakeholders Substantial Substantial Other Substantial Substantial Overall Substantial Substantial . The World Bank Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625) . Results framework COUNTRY: Kazakhstan Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection Project Development Objectives(s) The proposed Project Development Objective is to improve accessibility, quality, and efficiency of health service delivery, and reduce financial risks to the population that are caused by serious health problems. Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 Improve accessibility, quality, and effeciency of health service delivery and reduce financial risk Increase public expenditure share for PHC + consultation and diagnostic 35.00 35.00 36.00 37.00 38.00 40.00 40.00 care + outpatient drugs (Percentage) Percent of all surgeries included in the “outpatient elective surgeries” list performed as outpatient 5.00 5.00 10.00 25.00 30.00 40.00 40.00 surgeries in project- supported hospitals and outpatient facilities (Percentage) Percent of all contracted inpatient services subject to 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 30.00 technical audit (annually) (Percentage) The World Bank Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 SHIF is fully functional based on predefined No No No No Yes Yes Yes criteria (Yes/No) Proportion of the bottom 40% of households spending 10% and more on health services and non- food goods in the health 10.50 11.70 12.80 13.90 13.50 12.80 12.80 sector out of total expenditure on paid services and non-food goods (Percentage) PDO Table SPACE Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 Component 1. Supporting implementation of the National Mandatory Social Health Insurance System Percent of population for whom SHIF received SHI 0.00 32.00 26.00 26.00 82.00 86.00 86.00 contributions/subsidies (Percentage) Rationale: Action: This indicator has The end-target value is increased from 83% to 86% based on successful achievement of the current target values. been Revised The World Bank Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 Achievement of key MSHI benchmarks for functioning No implementation Partial Partial Yes Yes Yes social health insurance roadmap approved system (Text) Key adjustments in the contracting methods are adopted to include No No No No Yes Yes Yes incentives for providers to improve quality (Yes/No) Component 2. Strengthening of health service delivery to support implementation of the national mand Number of fully functional regional PHC excellence 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 17.00 17.00 centers (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has End-target value is increased to both align with the revised territorial division of Kazakhstan (new Turkestan Oblast created as the 17th region in 2018) and been Revised successful achievement of the current target values. Number of regions implementing disease management programs with evidence-based 2.00 2.00 7.00 10.00 13.00 17.00 17.00 effectiveness, including incentives for health providers and patients (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has End-target value is increased to both align with the revised territorial division of Kazakhstan (new Turkestan Oblast created as the 17th region in 2018) and been Revised successful achievement of the current target values. The World Bank Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 Number of educational programs developed and implemented in medical education institutions based on competence- 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 18.00 21.00 21.00 based approach and professional standards through strategic partnerships (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has Target values are increased to align with the successful achievement of the current target values. been Revised Unified register of human resources for health No No No No Yes Yes Yes implemented (Yes/No) Health personnel receiving 0.00 0.00 785.00 8,022.00 9,511.00 9,800.00 9,800.00 training (number) (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has Target values are increased to align with the actually achieved intermediate target values and forecasted end-target value. been Revised Health facilities constructed, renovated, 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 100.00 250.00 250.00 and/or equipped (number) (Number) Action: This indicator has Rationale: been Revised The World Bank Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 Target values are increased to align with the successful achievement of the current target values (due to an increased number of health facilities equipped with COVID-19 related equipment.). Percentage of patients Baseline value reporting improved health n/a n/a n/a 0.05 0.10 0.10 established services (Text) Increase in transparency, credibility, and effectiveness of the 0.00 0.00 0.00 35.00 40.00 60.00 60.00 complaints handling system (Percentage) Number of new clinical protocols developed for intensive care in obstetrics 0.00 2.00 5.00 and for neonatology (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator is This new intermediate results indicator is added as an additional measure of the quality of health care. New IO Table SPACE The World Bank Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625)