The World Bank
       Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625)




                                                                                              REPORT NO.: RES45632




                                              RESTRUCTURING PAPER

                                                       ON A

                                       PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING

                                                      OF THE
     SOCIAL HEALTH INSURANCE PROJECT: IMPROVING ACCESS, QUALITY, EFFICIENCY AND FINANCIAL PROTECTION
                                           APPROVED ON APRIL 27, 2016
                                                      TO THE

                                             REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN



HEALTH, NUTRITION & POPULATION

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA




                                Regional Vice President:   Anna M. Bjerde
                                      Country Director:    Lilia Burunciuc
                                      Regional Director:   Fadia M. Saadah
                            Practice Manager/Manager:      Tania Dmytraczenko
                                   Task Team Leader(s):    Carlos Marcelo Bortman, Baktybek Zhumadil
      The World Bank
      Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625)



ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

       COVID-19               Coronavirus disease
       GoK                    Government of Kazakhstan
       IR                     Intermediate Results
       MCH                    Maternal and child health
       MoH                    Ministry of Health
       MS                     Moderately Satisfactory
       MSHI                   Mandatory Social Health Insurance
       MTR                    Mid-term Review
       PCR                    Polymerase chain reaction
       PDO                    Project Development Objective
       PHC                    Primary health care
       PMU                    Project Management Unit
       SARS-CoV-2             Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
       SHIF                   Social Health Insurance Fund
       TA                     Technical assistance
       WHO                    World Health Organization
           The World Bank
           Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625)




BASIC DATA


Product Information

Project ID                                                      Financing Instrument
P152625                                                         Investment Project Financing

Original EA Category                                            Current EA Category
Not Required (C)                                                Not Required (C)

Approval Date                                                   Current Closing Date
27-Apr-2016                                                     30-Jun-2021


Organizations

Borrower                                                        Responsible Agency
Republic of Kazakhstan                                          Ministry of Health,Ministry of Health



Project Development Objective (PDO)
Original PDO
The proposed Project Development Objective is to improve accessibility, quality, and efficiency of health service
delivery, and reduce financial risks to the population that are caused by serious health problems.

OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDO
Summary Status of Financing (US$, Millions)
                                                                                         Net
Ln/Cr/Tf                  Approval         Signing Effectiveness          Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed

IBRD-86170             27-Apr-2016 01-Nov-2016        27-Jun-2017    30-Jun-2021           80.00        32.70          47.30

Policy Waiver(s)

Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)?
No
            The World Bank
            Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625)



    I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING

    1. The Project was approved on April 27, 2016 and was declared effective on June 27, 2017. The Project has three
       components: Component 1: Supporting implementation of the national mandatory Social Health Insurance system
       (original cost: US$16.63 million); Component 2: Strengthening of health service delivery to support implementation
       of the national mandatory Social Health Insurance system (original cost: US$62.94 million); and Component 3: Project
       management, monitoring and evaluation, and communications strategy (original cost: US$10.43 million). The Ministry
       of Health (MoH) has the overall responsibility for implementation and oversight of the Project. The Social Health
       Insurance Fund (SHIF), a non-profit joint stock company subordinated to the Government of Kazakhstan (GoK), is one
       of the beneficiaries and implementing entities for Component 1. As a beneficiary, the SHIF receives advisory services
       and capacity building. As an implementing entity, the SHIF is involved in the design and implementation of
       mechanisms, tools, and processes envisaged under the Project, with funding for these activities managed by the MoH.
       The MoH is assisted by the Project Management Unit (PMU), a team of full-time local technical and fiduciary
       consultants and support staff with experience in World Bank procedures who fulfill daily coordination, procurement,
       financial management, and monitoring and evaluation functions.

        Project Implementation Status

    2. Progress towards achievement of the Project Development Objective (PDO). The PDO is to improve accessibility,
       quality, and efficiency of health service delivery, and reduce financial risks to the population that are caused by serious
       health problems. The progress towards achievement of PDO and overall implementation progress have been rated
       Moderately Satisfactory or higher since April 2019. The PDO rating was upgraded to Satisfactory in April 2020 given
       the smooth launch of the second phase of the Mandatory Social Health Insurance (MSHI) reform. However, the rating
       was downgraded to Moderately Satisfactory, mainly given delays in initiating this proposed Project restructuring.
       Satisfactory progress of health sector reforms and towards the achievement of the PDO is reflected in some of the
       PDO-level indicators, while some reversal is observed in others given the impact of restrictions due to COVID-19.
       Specifically, three out of five indicators (PDO 1, 4, and 5) have achieved their end-targets, while two indicators (PDO
       2 and 3) recorded reversals. Specifically, the MoH/PMU annual implementation progress report for 2020 shows the
       following:

        a. PDO 1: Public expenditure share for primary health care (PHC) has increased to 45.2% (2019) from the baseline
           of 35% (2016), surpassing the Project end target (40%).

        b. PDO 2: Outpatient surgeries for selected cases1 has decreased from 31.9% (2019) to 28% (2021) from the baseline
           of less than 5% (target: 40%). This decrease in the share of outpatient elective surgeries has been due to the
           suspension of all routine health services for a few months during the COVID-19 lockdown periods.

        c. PDO 3: Technical audits of inpatient services are under implementation, but have decreased from 26.6% (2019)
           to 26.2% (2020) of all contracted inpatient services subject to technical audit (target: 30%), also due to a more
           limited scope of technical audits during the pandemic.

        d. PDO 4: The SHIF is fully functional based on predefined criteria. The SHIF is fully functional, as evidenced by the
           fact that all six criteria as part of its functioning as the purchaser of health services under the State-Guaranteed
           Benefits Package and MSHI have been satisfied: (i) the law on MSHI was adopted and relevant by-laws were

1For this indicator, the 5 most common outpatient surgical interventions were considered: removal of the umbilical hernia, local excision of the affected area of the
mammary gland, reposition of nasal bones, hydrocele, and drainage of soft tissue abscess.
       The World Bank
       Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625)


        updated; (ii) SHIF signed contracts with providers for a specific sets of services; (iii) the insurance package has
        been approved (Government Decree No. 421, dated June 20, 2019) and is under implementation; (iv) SHIF
        completed annual external financial audits for previous years; and (v) SHIF has positive balance between revenues
        and expenses; (iv) while utilization of, and payments for, regular health services were adversely affected by the
        COVID-19-related restrictions in Quarters 1 and 2 of 2020, the adjustments to payment terms and schedules
        subsequently implemented by the SHIF have introduced flexibility that has allowed for the achievement of the
        last criterion (health facilities received payments for services contracted by SHIF, in accordance with payment
        schedules specified in their contracts).

    e. PDO 5. The value of PDO indicator 5 (decline in the proportion of the bottom 40% of households incurring out-of-
       pocket expenditures on health that exceed 10% of total non-food related household spending) has decreased
       compared to the value of 13.7% in 2018 and, based on official data for 2019, reached 10.7%. The 2020 value for
       this indicator will be available by September 2021.

3. Implementation status. Overall implementation progress is rated Moderately Satisfactory in line with the latest
   Implementation Status and Results Report of April 2021. Despite the achievement of almost all intermediate results
   (IR) indicators (except IR indicator 7 on implementation of unified register of human resources for health), the rating
   reflects the continued delays in initiating the project restructuring and issues with implementation of several
   contracts. These delays have mainly been related to the review of deliverables and payments by the MoH under a
   few contracts, as well as some contractual disputes under three technical assistance (TA) contracts, with a potential
   arbitration case under one of them. The MoH has also cancelled two contracts for goods under Component 2 that
   were no longer relevant in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and terminated eight contracts for goods and TA
   under Components 2 and 3 because they were no longer relevant or due to violation of contractual provisions by the
   suppliers/consultants. The remaining activities under all the three Components are expected to be completed by the
   current closing date of June 30, 2021, except for a couple of TA contracts where additional tasks may need to be
   undertaken.

4. Commitments and disbursements. As of June 3, 2021, US$32.7 million (or 40.9% of the Loan) has been disbursed, with
   total (unpaid) commitments standing at US$13.3 million. Cumulative disbursements are expected to reach US$38.1
   million (or 47.6%) by June 30, 2021. The remaining US$30.5 million, plus up to US$2.9 million in savings from ongoing
   TA contracts, are planned to be used for the procurement of goods (medical and laboratory equipment) and fully
   disbursed within 9 months, should the extension of the closing date be approved through this proposed restructuring.

    Continued relevance of the Project

5. The Project continues to be highly relevant and fully aligned with “Kazakhstan-2050 Strategy: New Political Course of
   the Established State” (Strategy 2050) which lays out Kazakhstan’s objective to join the top 30 most developed
   economies in the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development by 2050. The PDO also echoes the
   National Priority 2 in the National Development Plan until 2025, approved in February 2021, which calls for an
   effective and efficient healthcare system. The Project is closely aligned with the 2018 Kazakhstan Systematic Country
   Diagnostic and the FY2020-25 Country Partnership Framework, under Focus Area 2: Strengthening Human Capital
   pursues Objective 5: Increase Access to Quality Health Services and Social Protection. In the context of the COVID-19
   pandemic, the Project’s high relevance is reflected in the fact that it helped ensure access to quality intensive care
   services by efficiently procuring the much-needed life-saving equipment. Also, as part of this proposed restructuring,
   the Project would enhance quality and efficiency of laboratory diagnostic services as well as improve access to and
   quality of maternal and child health (MCH) and intensive care services, as detailed in subsequent paragraphs.
             The World Bank
             Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625)


        Rationale for restructuring

    6. An outbreak of the COVID-19 caused by the 2019 novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-
       2) has been spreading rapidly across the world since December 2019. Since the beginning of March 2020, the number
       of cases outside China has grown exponentially and the crisis has reached global scale. On March 11, 2020, the World
       Health Organization (WHO) declared a global pandemic as the coronavirus rapidly spreads across the world. As of
       June 3, 2021, the outbreak has resulted in an estimated 171,771,486 cases and 3,693,509 deaths in 192 countries.2The
       COVID-19 pandemic has placed a renewed focus on the unfinished agenda of communicable diseases, while also
       highlighting the urgent need to strengthen epidemiological surveillance, preparedness, and response to emerging
       public health threats.

    7. The first cases of COVID-19 were registered in Kazakhstan on March 13, 2020, and a national lockdown was imposed
       on March 16, 2020 through a Presidential Decree. As of June 1, 2021, the number of registered cases that tested
       positive for COVID-19 through a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test reached a total of 390,376, of which 362,018
       patients have recovered and 4,007 patients have died. In addition, out of an additional 55,477 cases with symptoms
       similar to COVID-19 but negative test results, 51,457 patients have recovered, and 3,376 patients have died.
    8. In response to a request from the MoH dated March 16, 2020 and to address the threats posed by the COVID-19
       pandemic, the Bank and MoH have adjusted the procurement plan to direct US$27.6 million under the Project for the
       COVID-19 response. This was done without a restructuring because the Project, as designed, already included
       activities to strengthen public health and emergency medical services. Flexibilities offered by streamlined
       procurement procedures triggered by the emergency situation were also effectively used to ensure timely and
       adequate response to the pandemic. This has enabled the MoH to successfully procure 491 mechanical ventilators
       and 87 kinetic therapy devices for a total of US$22 million. The remaining US$5.6 million is reserved for any additional
       potential emergency procurement needs and has not been utilized so far. Upon their phased delivery, the procured
       devices are distributed to hospitals across the whole country. Albeit with substantial delays due to supply chain
       disruptions, to date, all the 491 ventilators and 87 kinetic therapy devices have been delivered and distributed to
       hospitals, with 251 of the ventilators having not yet been formally accepted and/or paid by the MoH.

    9. Kazakhstan’s COVID-19 vaccination campaign began on February 1, 2021 with priority groups specified in the national
       vaccination plan.3 Currently, Kazakhstan’s main source of the COVID-19 vaccine is from Russia (Sputnik V vaccine).
       Kazakhstan has a bilateral agreement with Russia for approximately 5.1 million doses. The initial batches of 22,000
       and 80,000 doses were delivered from Russia, while an additional 2 million doses are being produced at Kazakhstan’s
       Karaganda Pharmaceutical Plant, with plans to purchase an additional 3 million doses. These quantities are be
       delivered in phases from Russia and the Karaganda Pharmaceutical Plant. In addition to Sputnik V, two local vaccine
       candidates are currently undergoing clinical trials, with 100,000 doses of one of them (QazCovid-In vaccine) already
       produced and distributed to the regions as of early May 2021. Kazakhstan has also received 1 million doses of
       Sinopharm’s Hayat-Vax vaccine produced in United Arab Emirates and 500,000 doses of Sinovac’s CoronaVac vaccine.
       Finally, the MoH is also negotiating the purchase of the Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson
       vaccines. It is planned to vaccinate a total of 9.9 million (or 52.4 percent) of the total population by September 2021.



2Johns Hopkins University. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
3 Originally specified target groups included (in order of priority) health workers; teachers; local police officers; students; personnel and contingent of medical, social
and closed children's institutions; employees of the emergency situations service, ministries of defense, internal affairs, the Committee national security, State Security
Service of the Republic of Kazakhstan; contingent of the Administrative Department of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, civil servants, citizens of the Republic
Kazakhstan, who are employees of diplomatic and consular institutions accredited in Kazakhstan, members of national teams; and persons with chronic diseases
(diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, of cardio-vascular system).
       The World Bank
       Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625)


    As of June 3, 2021, 2,158,946 people have received the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine; while 1,117,972 have
    received both doses, which represents 6% of the total population.
10. The GoK through letter # 005-DG/11751-I from the Ministry of Finance dated June 2, 2021 requested a 9-month
    extension of the Loan Closing Date and a reallocation of the Loan funds among withdrawal categories to finance
    additional medical equipment. The new equipment proposed to be procured as part of this restructuring to support
    the existing activities under Component 2 is necessitated by emerging national priorities. Specifically, in terms of the
    proposed laboratory equipment, the State Health Care Development Program of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2020-
    2025 envisages the enhancement of biological safety of laboratories for sanitary and epidemiological examination,
    their provision with modern equipment, and development of a biomedical research market, including the conduct of
    international and multi-center research. Therefore, equipping the National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous
    Infections with a new-generation genetic sequencer and automated systems (robotic stations) for isolation of DNA,
    RNA, proteins and cells will increase the diagnostic accuracy, efficiency, and capacity and improve the quality of
    laboratory studies. This will strengthen active epidemiological surveillance of various infectious diseases (COVID-19,
    influenza viruses, enteroviruses) and PCR diagnostics of especially dangerous infections, thereby also contributing to
    efficiency, quality, and capacity of the health system in general.

11. Along with this, MCH issues and quality of intensive care are gaining special social significance in Kazakhstan. MCH is
    reflected as a high priority in all key national and sectoral strategies, including the long-term Strategy 2050 and the
    State Health Care Development Program of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2020-2025. Since Kazakhstan’s move to
    the WHO-recommended criteria of live births and stillbirth in 2008-2010, the country has three-tier system of
    maternal and neonatal care. Full-fledged implementation of this system had required mobilization of the best human
    resources and modern equipment to enable provision of high-quality specialized care for small-for-date newborns
    and complicated pregnancies. However, simultaneous provision of the necessary equipment to all MCH facilities
    proved challenging for a long period of time. The President of Kazakhstan’s recent instruction to “undertake effective
    measures to improve the quality of and access to health services, including to reduce the regional disbalances in
    indicators of population’s health, especially in terms of maternal and infant mortality, which substantially exceed the
    level of developed countries” provided an additional impetus to strengthen MCH and intensive care services.
    Therefore, the protection of the health of women and children, as well as the delivery of quality and timely intensive
    care have become critical areas of engagement for health authorities and health facilities in the country. Such
    engagement is focused on the provision of accessible and qualified obstetrical and neonatal services and aimed at
    reductions of maternal and perinatal deaths, given that exactly these indicators have the potential of substantially
    influencing Kazakhstan’s future demographic situation.

12. Taking into account the remaining funds available and limited timeframe until the proposed revised closing date of
    the Project, only tertiary-care institutions at the republican level providing MCH and intensive care services will be
    prioritized for the provision of the necessary equipment. A comprehensive assessment of needs is currently being
    conducted. The strengthening of the institutions providing MCH and intensive care services at the republican level
    would enhance their role as lead institutions in their respective areas, which has lost its significance over the past
    years due to the overall inadequate level and significant wear and tear of equipment and quality of human resources
    available. More specifically, the proposed procurement of equipment for MCH and intensive care services will: (a)
    improve access to and quality of MCH services; (b) introduce innovative health technologies into obstetrical and
    neonatal practice; (c) institutionalize obstetrical and neonatal services; (d) strengthen the role of tertiary-level
    research institutions at the republican level in the development of scientific and methodological bases of the health
    sector; (e) enhance the effectiveness of supervisory role of the tertiary-level research institutions vis-à-vis regional
    health facilities; and (f) improve the situation with maternal and infant mortality.
            The World Bank
            Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625)



    II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES

    13. This is the second restructuring that seeks (i) a reallocation between disbursement categories to enable full
        utilization of the currently uncommitted loan amount; (ii) a nine-month extension of the Project closing date from
        June 30, 2021 to March 31, 2022 to allow for the initiation and completion of new processes to procure the
        necessary laboratory and medical equipment; and (iii) adjustments to the results framework to allow for a better
        measurement of PDO-level and intermediate results of the Project.4 No change to the current PDO is required, as
        the proposed new procurement packages support the original PDO, further enhance the Project’s relevance, scale
        up its impact, and improve sustainability of outcomes by strengthening the overall health system.

    14. Reallocation between disbursement categories. This restructuring seeks a reallocation of US$8.47 million from
        Component 1 (Category 1) to Component 2 (Category 2). This amount represents savings from TA and training
        activities under Component 1. In addition, adjustments in the total amount of US$20.6 million will be made within
        Category 2 (within Component 2, and from Component 3 to Component 2), which comprise savings and amounts
        released under the cancelled/terminated contracts under Components 2 and 3. These reallocation and adjustments
        of Project funds will be utilized to finance the following new procurement packages under Component 2: (a)
        laboratory equipment to strengthen diagnostic capacity of laboratory services; and (b) medical equipment to
        strengthen capacity of tertiary-care institutions providing MCH and intensive care services at the republican level.

    15. These proposed reallocations between and within disbursement categories will enable full utilization of the
        currently uncommitted loan amount. Moreover, the proposed new procurement packages do not require any
        changes to be made to the Project description in the Loan Agreement, as they support, respectively, the existing
        activities (sub)components 2.A (i) and 2.B (i) specified in the Loan Agreement, namely: (a) the proposed laboratory
        equipment will contribute to “developing a health facility network, involving the establishment of a public health
        service to increase the promotion of a healthy lifestyle, reduce risk factors for non-communicable diseases,
        strengthen the epidemiological surveillance system for outbreaks, and build capacity in public health policy planning
        and health services delivery; and (b) the proposed medical equipment will support managing the quality of health
        care services, involving the improvement of clinical practice by developing a system for implementing, and
        monitoring the introduction of, clinical protocols.

    16. The reductions in amounts of Components 1 and 3 resulting from these reallocation and cost adjustments will not
        affect the completion of the originally programmed activities and will not put at risk the achievement of the PDO,
        because most PDO-level and IR indicators have been achieved, and addressing the most critical current priorities
        will further enhance the relevance, efficacy, and impact of the Project. Detailed information on components and
        costs is outlined in Table 1.




4The first restructuring (report No. RES33479, dated December 4, 2018) included only adjustments to some indicators’ definitions, target values, and timing of
achievement of targets to better reflect the updated, two-phase timeline of the MSHI implementation.
       The World Bank
       Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625)


                                       Table 1: Changes to Components and Costs

                                                              Original Cost                    Proposed Cost
                   Component Name                                        Counterpart                     Counterpart
                                                     Total     IBRD                      Total   IBRD
                                                                             Funds                           Funds
                                                    (US$M)    (US$M)                    (US$M) (US$M)
                                                                            (US$M)                          (US$M)
     Supporting implementation of the national
                                                     16.63     14.68        1.95         6.92      6.21         0.71
     mandatory Social Health Insurance system
     Strengthening of health service delivery to
     support implementation of the national          62.94     56.11        6.83        77.22      68.47        8.75
     mandatory Social Health Insurance system
     Project management, monitoring and
                                                     10.43      9.21        1.22         5.86      5.32         0.54
     evaluation, and communications strategy
     Total IBRD                                       90         80          10           90        80           10


17. Loan Closing Date. A nine-month extension of the Project closing date, from June 30, 2021 to March 31, 2022, is
    proposed to allow for the initiation and completion of new processes to procure the necessary laboratory and
    medical equipment. If approved, this would be the first extension of the original closing date.

18. Implementation Schedule. The implementation schedule has been revised to be consistent with the nine-month
    extension of the Project closing date.

19. Disbursement estimates. Estimates and timeframe have been revised to update projections based on the expected
    implementation pace of the ongoing activities and new procurement packages.

20. Results Framework. Adjustments to the Results Framework will allow for better measurement of PDO-level and
    intermediate results of the Project and will include addition of a new intermediate results indicator and revision of
    end-target values for six new intermediate results indicators, as described below.

       a. A new IR indicator will be introduced to measure quality of health care: “Number of new clinical protocols
          developed for intensive care in obstetrics and for neonatology”.

       b. End-target values for six of the eleven IR indicators have been increased to align with the revised territorial
          division of Kazakhstan (new Turkestan Oblast created as the 17th region in 2018) and/or successful
          achievement of the current target values.

21. Social and Environmental Safeguards. The Project has been assigned a category “C”. The proposed restructuring
    will not trigger any new safeguard policy, and the Environmental Assessment category will not change, as the
    medical and laboratory equipment to be procured will comply with most up-to-date requirements for
    environmental safety and efficiency. Also, while the Project will finance the equipment and related costs (training,
    maintenance, etc.), the refurbishment works necessary for the installation of the equipment will be undertaken in
    advance and paid for by the beneficiary institutions.

22. Financial Management and Procurement arrangements. There will be no changes in Financial Management and
    Procurement arrangements. Financial Management arrangements concerning budget, accounting, flow of funds,
    treasury, internal controls, and audits arrangements will remain as specified in the original Project design. Financial
        The World Bank
        Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625)


    Management performance has been adequate and there are no overdue audits or interim (unaudited) financial
    reports.

23. Project Risks. The following description of project risks reflects the risk profile reflected in the latest Implementation
    Status and Results Report of April 2021. The overall risk to achievement of the PDO continues to be Substantial,
    though there have been some changes in sub-risks. Since 2019, sector strategies and policies, technical design, and
    institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability risks have been downgraded from Substantial to
    Moderate due to the sound strategies and policies pursued in implementation of the MSHI system, extensive
    communications, stakeholder and beneficiary engagement and proactive feedback, among others. The
    macroeconomic, stakeholders, and other (reputational) risks remain Substantial given the macroeconomic situation
    related to the overall spread of COVID-19 and overall continued sensitivity of the MSHI reform, as well as public
    concerns related to the epidemiological situation. Fiduciary risk was downgraded from High to Substantial in April
    2020 given the launch of procurement processes for almost all of the remaining contracts and the ability of the
    PMU/MoH to efficiently process procurements of the much needed mechanical ventilators in a time of significant
    global supply stress. With regard to this restructuring, Fiduciary risk remains Substantial based on the possibility of
    delays in preparing the technical specifications, as well as the long internal approval process within the MoH. In
    addition, there are also important risks related to the packaging, specifications, supply chains, and the market
    response that need to be considered before approving the final procurement plan. To mitigate these risks, an initial
    procurement plan with the high-value medical equipment contracts to be executed will be finalized based on a
    comprehensive market analysis. The market analysis will be completed as soon as possible by the PMU/MoH in
    order to propose the best fit-for-purpose procurement approach for these critical procurements.




III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES

                                                                       Changed                        Not Changed
Results Framework                                                          ✔
Components and Cost                                                        ✔
Loan Closing Date(s)                                                       ✔
Reallocation between Disbursement Categories                               ✔
Disbursement Estimates                                                     ✔
Overall Risk Rating                                                        ✔
Implementation Schedule                                                    ✔
Implementing Agency                                                                                         ✔
DDO Status                                                                                                  ✔
Project's Development Objectives                                                                            ✔
PBCs                                                                                                        ✔
Cancellations Proposed                                                                                      ✔
                                         The World Bank
                                         Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625)



  Disbursements Arrangements                                                                                                            ✔
  Safeguard Policies Triggered                                                                                                          ✔
  EA category                                                                                                                           ✔
  Legal Covenants                                                                                                                       ✔
  Institutional Arrangements                                                                                                            ✔
  Financial Management                                                                                                                  ✔
  Procurement                                                                                                                           ✔
  Other Change(s)                                                                                                                       ✔
  Economic and Financial Analysis                                                                                                       ✔
  Technical Analysis                                                                                                                    ✔
  Social Analysis                                                                                                                       ✔
  Environmental Analysis                                                                                                                ✔


IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S)


  OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_COMPONENTS_TABLE




  COMPONENTS
                                                                          Current
  Current                                                                                            Proposed                                 Proposed
                                                                             Cost           Action
  Component Name                                                                                     Component Name                         Cost (US$M)
                                                                          (US$M)
  Component 1. Supporting                                                                            Component 1. Supporting
  implementation of the national                                                                     implementation of the national
                                                                            16.63          Revised                                                    6.92
  mandatory Social Health                                                                            mandatory Social Health
  Insurance system                                                                                   Insurance system
  Component 2. Strengthening of                                                                      Component 2. Strengthening
  health service delivery to support                                                                 of health service delivery to
  implementation of the national                                            62.94          Revised   support implementation of the                   77.22
  mandatory Social Health                                                                            national mandatory Social
  Insurance system                                                                                   Health Insurance system
  Component 3. Project                                                                               Component 3. Project
  management, monitoring and                                                                         management, monitoring and
                                                                            10.43          Revised                                                    5.86
  evaluation, and communications                                                                     evaluation, and
  strategy                                                                                           communications strategy
   TOTAL                                                                    90.00                                                                    90.00



OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_LOANCLOSING_TABLE
                                                   The World Bank
                                                   Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625)



        LOAN CLOSING DATE(S)

                                                                                       Original                Revised Proposed               Proposed Deadline
      Ln/Cr/Tf                                                  Status                 Closing               Closing(s) Closing                  for Withdrawal
                                                                                                                                                    Applications
      IBRD-86170                                                Effective          30-Jun-2021                             31-Mar-2022                  31-Jul-2022

OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_REALLOCATION _TABLE




          REALLOCATION BETWEEN DISBURSEMENT CATEGORIES

                                                                                                                                             Financing %
                                                    Current Allocation           Actuals + Committed           Proposed Allocation
                                                                                                                                             (Type Total)
                                                                                                                                           Current        Proposed

          IBRD-86170-001                                    |   Currency: USD

         iLap Category Sequence No: (1)                                             Current Expenditure Category: NON-CS, CS, TR PART 1

                                                        14,678,000.00                    4,034,277.72                 6,205,900.00         100.00              100.00


         iLap Category Sequence No: (2)                                             Current Expenditure Category: GO, NON-CS, CS, TR PT 2,3; OC PT 3

                                                        65,322,000.00                  27,285,220.70                 73,794,100.00         100.00              100.00


          Total                                         80,000,000.00                   31,319,498.42                80,000,000.00

          OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_DISBURSEMENT_TABLE




          DISBURSEMENT ESTIMATES

          Change in Disbursement Estimates
          Yes

                 Year                                                                                            Current                                Proposed
                 2016                                                                                               0.00                                     0.00

                 2017                                                                                               0.00                                     0.00

                 2018                                                                                       1,092,328.00                             1,090,000.00

                 2019                                                                                     10,707,672.00                              3,350,000.00

                 2020                                                                                     29,300,000.00                             12,630,000.00

                 2021                                                                                     38,900,000.00                             21,030,000.00

                 2022                                                                                               0.00                            41,900,000.00
                                 The World Bank
                                 Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625)



OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_SORT_TABLE




          SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT)

       Risk Category                                                            Rating at Approval            Current Rating

         Political and Governance                                              Moderate                      Moderate
         Macroeconomic                                                         Substantial                   Substantial
         Sector Strategies and Policies                                        Substantial                   Moderate
         Technical Design of Project or Program                                Substantial                   Moderate
         Institutional Capacity for Implementation and                         Substantial                   Moderate
         Sustainability
         Fiduciary                                                             Substantial                   Substantial
         Environment and Social                                                Moderate                      Moderate
         Stakeholders                                                          Substantial                   Substantial
         Other                                                                 Substantial                   Substantial
         Overall                                                               Substantial                   Substantial
 .
                                  The World Bank
                                  Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625)



.
                                                                                            Results framework
                                                                                       COUNTRY: Kazakhstan
                                                   Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection

    Project Development Objectives(s)
    The proposed Project Development Objective is to improve accessibility, quality, and efficiency of health service delivery, and reduce financial risks to the
    population that are caused by serious health problems.



    Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes
    RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO




                           Indicator Name     PBC Baseline                                                Intermediate Targets                         End Target

                                                                      1                 2                   3                4                 5
    Improve accessibility, quality, and effeciency of health service delivery and reduce financial risk
    Increase public expenditure
    share for PHC +
    consultation and diagnostic                    35.00             35.00             36.00               37.00           38.00              40.00   40.00
    care + outpatient drugs
    (Percentage)
    Percent of all surgeries
    included in the “outpatient
    elective surgeries” list
    performed as outpatient
                                                   5.00              5.00              10.00               25.00           30.00              40.00   40.00
    surgeries in project-
    supported hospitals and
    outpatient facilities
    (Percentage)
    Percent of all contracted
    inpatient services subject to
                                                   20.00             20.00             20.00               20.00           25.00              30.00   30.00
    technical audit (annually)
    (Percentage)
                              The World Bank
                              Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625)



RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO




                       Indicator Name     PBC Baseline                                                       Intermediate Targets                                  End Target

                                                                      1                    2                    3                     4                    5
SHIF is fully functional
based on predefined                            No                   No                   No                    No                   Yes                   Yes     Yes
criteria (Yes/No)
Proportion of the bottom
40% of households
spending 10% and more on
health services and non-
food goods in the health                       10.50                11.70                12.80                 13.90                13.50                 12.80   12.80
sector out of total
expenditure on paid
services and non-food
goods (Percentage)

 PDO Table SPACE

Intermediate Results Indicators by Components
RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO




                       Indicator Name     PBC Baseline                                                       Intermediate Targets                                  End Target

                                                                      1                    2                    3                     4                    5
Component 1. Supporting implementation of the National Mandatory Social Health Insurance System
Percent of population for
whom SHIF received SHI
                                               0.00                 32.00                26.00                 26.00                82.00                 86.00   86.00
contributions/subsidies
(Percentage)

                                        Rationale:
Action: This indicator has
                                        The end-target value is increased from 83% to 86% based on successful achievement of the current target values.
been Revised
                             The World Bank
                             Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625)



RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO




                      Indicator Name     PBC Baseline                                                         Intermediate Targets                                                 End Target

                                                                      1                    2                     3                     4                     5
Achievement of key
                                                                    MSHI
benchmarks for functioning
                                              No                    implementation        Partial               Partial               Yes                   Yes                   Yes
social health insurance
                                                                    roadmap approved
system (Text)
Key adjustments in the
contracting methods are
adopted to include                            No                    No                    No                    No                    Yes                   Yes                   Yes
incentives for providers to
improve quality (Yes/No)
Component 2. Strengthening of health service delivery to support implementation of the national mand
Number of fully functional
regional PHC excellence                       0.00                  0.00                  0.00                  5.00                  10.00                 17.00                 17.00
centers (Number)

                                       Rationale:
Action: This indicator has             End-target value is increased to both align with the revised territorial division of Kazakhstan (new Turkestan Oblast created as the 17th region in 2018) and
been Revised                           successful achievement of the current target values.


Number of regions
implementing disease
management programs
with evidence-based
                                              2.00                  2.00                  7.00                  10.00                 13.00                 17.00                 17.00
effectiveness, including
incentives for health
providers and patients
(Number)

                                       Rationale:
Action: This indicator has
                                       End-target value is increased to both align with the revised territorial division of Kazakhstan (new Turkestan Oblast created as the 17th region in 2018) and
been Revised
                                       successful achievement of the current target values.
                             The World Bank
                             Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625)



RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO




                      Indicator Name     PBC Baseline                                                         Intermediate Targets                                    End Target

                                                                     1                     2                     3                     4                   5


Number of educational
programs developed and
implemented in medical
education institutions
based on competence-                          1.00                  2.00                  3.00                  4.00                 18.00                21.00      21.00
based approach and
professional standards
through strategic
partnerships (Number)

                                       Rationale:
Action: This indicator has
                                       Target values are increased to align with the successful achievement of the current target values.
been Revised

Unified register of human
resources for health                          No                    No                    No                    No                   Yes                  Yes        Yes
implemented (Yes/No)
Health personnel receiving
                                              0.00                  0.00                  785.00                8,022.00             9,511.00             9,800.00   9,800.00
training (number) (Number)

                                       Rationale:
Action: This indicator has
                                       Target values are increased to align with the actually achieved intermediate target values and forecasted end-target value.
been Revised

Health facilities
constructed, renovated,
                                              0.00                  0.00                  0.00                  20.00                100.00               250.00     250.00
and/or equipped (number)
(Number)
Action: This indicator has
                                       Rationale:
been Revised
                             The World Bank
                             Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625)



RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO




                      Indicator Name     PBC Baseline                                                         Intermediate Targets                                                End Target

                                                                      1                    2                     3                     4                    5
                                       Target values are increased to align with the successful achievement of the current target values (due to an increased number of health facilities equipped with
                                       COVID-19 related equipment.).


Percentage of patients
                                                                                                                Baseline value
reporting improved health                     n/a                   n/a                   n/a                                         0.05                 0.10                  0.10
                                                                                                                established
services (Text)
Increase in transparency,
credibility, and
effectiveness of the                          0.00                  0.00                  0.00                  35.00                 40.00                60.00                 60.00
complaints handling system
(Percentage)
Number of new clinical
protocols developed for
intensive care in obstetrics                  0.00                  2.00                                                                                                         5.00
and for neonatology
(Number)

                                       Rationale:
Action: This indicator is
                                       This new intermediate results indicator is added as an additional measure of the quality of health care.
New


IO Table SPACE
The World Bank
Social Health Insurance Project: Improving Access, Quality, Efficiency and Financial Protection (P152625)